Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/29/14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

 840 PM MST SAT JUN 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HOTTER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY DRY BUT WEAKENING WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING
MOISTURE BELOW CLIMO WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER 3/4 OF AN INCH
AND SURFACE DEWPTS GENERALLY IN THE 30S. SOME SIGNS OF LIFE HOWEVER
IN A FEW REMOTE LOCATIONS NEAR SELLS AND AJO WITH A JUMP INTO THE
50S OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HERMOSILLO IS ALSO UP 18 TO 20
DEGREES COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. NICE
SOUTHERLY SURFACE STREAMLINE TRENDS SHOWING UP ON LATEST HRRR RUNS
FOR THE NEXT 15 HOURS.

00Z NAMDNG5 HINTING AT SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN BUILDUPS AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED EASTERN MOUNTAIN CONVECTION AS EARLY
AS MONDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST HAS VERY GOOD TRENDS RAMPING
UP INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT BORDER ACTIVITY AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. A GOOD START BUT THE FORECAST COULD BE A LITTLE
UNDERDONE FOR THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. A WEAK EASTERLY
INFLECTION IS STARTING TO SHOW UP IN THE ECMWF ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AS IT CONSOLIDATES TO OUR NORTHEAST THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THAT WOULD GET THINGS STARTED WITH A BANG AFTER A LOW
TO MEDIUM (MAINLY MOUNTAIN AND BORDER AREA) ONSET DAY WEDNESDAY.
MEYER

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/04Z.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD TO START THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY
SKC...FEW120 NEAR EASTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING...GUSTY IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH HEATING...WLY 6-12 KTS AFTER 29/19Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY PROVIDING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH TYPICAL
DIURNAL TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS. SOME AFTERNOON GUSTINESS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG HEATING THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FROM THE MIDDLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER HIGH WILL
DRIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO BEGIN MOVING
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN BORDER AREAS WEDNESDAY. THEN THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT INCREASES AND SPREADS WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT WITH RH
LEVELS INCREASING FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED WEST OF THE BAJA
SPUR IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING
EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TUCSON NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE 108...WHICH WOULD TIE THE
WARMEST THAT THE TUCSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS REACHED SO FAR
THIS YEAR.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS NORTH AND AMPLIFIES NEXT WEEK...THIS WILL ALLOW
DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND ESPECIALLY OUR EAST TO BEGIN TO
PUSH INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS SHOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FIRING
OVER NEW MEXICO AS EARLY AS TUESDAY...ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO
BORDER WEDNESDAY...THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE TRICKY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK...NOT JUST FROM THE ASPECT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BUT
ALSO HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES...DEPENDING UPON MOISTURE PUSH AND
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND HOW MUCH OF THE AREA THEY OVERSPREAD.
HOWEVER...BY LATE NEXT WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND...DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE
STATE SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND WARMER
NIGHTTIME LOWS. THE AMOUNT AND QUICKNESS OF THE MOISTURE INCREASE
WILL ALSO DETERMINE IF THE THUNDERSTORMS START OUT `DRY` AND THEN
MOISTEN UP OVER A COUPLE OF DAYS...OR IF WE JUMP RIGHT INTO THE WET
VARIETY WITH ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 1113 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FORECAST TO BRING IN CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BROUGHT MID TO UPPER 50 DEW
POINTS INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...HOWEVER
FINE LINE EVIDENT IN RADAR IS HEADING WESTWARD LIKELY MARKING THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE DRYING WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. RAP13 SUGGESTS THIS MOISTURE MAY STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF KIOWA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM. LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO BE CATCHING ON
TO THIS SCENARIO WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. SO WILL BE WATCHING THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OF TO THE NORTHEAST
FAIRLY QUICKLY. ELSEWHERE...HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THESE HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHER CONCERN IS SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
MODELS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO COME UP A BIT AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES
ACROSS. NOT GETTING ENOUGH AREAL COVERAGE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO GO OUT WITH A RED FLAG WARNING...BUT SPOTTY AREAS
MAY HIT CRITERIA AT TIMES. WILL BE MONITORING THIS EVOLUTION CLOSELY.
WITH THE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

CURRENTLY...

A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED VCNTY KLHX. THIS LOW WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STOUT SHORT WAVE WHICH WAS ENTERING INTO W CO AT
THIS HOUR (2 AM). EAST OF THIS LOW DWPTS WERE IN THE 60S WHILE ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR...DWPTS WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S. THE LLVL JET WAS
GRADUALLY DECREASING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AS WIND SPEEDS HAVE
BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING. A LARGE MCS WHICH WAS OVER NE/CO/KS AREA
EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS MOVED EAST IN C KS/C NE. HIGH BASED RADAR
ECHOES WERE NOTED OVER THE WEST SLOPE WITH SHOWERS OVER WY.

TODAY...

ALTHOUGH A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION...WE (NWS PUB
CWA) WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WX WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SVR STORM OVER FAR E
KIOWA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON....THE BRUNT OF ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
OCCUR JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA AS ALL GUIDANCE BREAKS OUT
SVR CONVECTION ACROSS NW KS AND NE CO. AS FOR THE MTNS...THE BEST
CHANCE OF TSRA AND DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL MTN
REGIONS TODAY. SFC WINDS OVER THE REGION WILL BE WESTERLY...AND THEY
WILL BE GUSTY OVER THE MTNS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH OVER
THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXITING OUT OF
THE ARK RVR VALLEY AND ACROSS N PUEBLO COUNTY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDER
OVER E KIOWA COUNTY. EXPECT BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO OCCUR
AROUND THE 3-5 PM WINDOW...WITH THE ACTIVITY QUICKLY MOVING INTO WC
KS. WIND AND HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. IF THIS WX SYSTEM
WOULD HAVE BEEN ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER...THEN THE SVR THREAT WOULD
HAVE BEEN MUCH GREATER OVER OUR EASTERN PLAINS.

ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIF THUNDER IS EXPECTED IN THE
MTNS TODAY...WE WILL SEE SEVERAL CG FLASHES. THE MTNS HAVE NOT SEEN
HARDLY ANY PRECIP OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS AND IT HAS BEEN QUITE
WARM. LIKEWISE...I EXPECT WE WILL SEE A FEW FIRE STARTS DUE TO THE
LTG STRIKE ACTIVITY.

MAX TEMPS TODAY OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE WARM...BUT NOT AS WARM AS
YDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE L/M 90S MOST AREAS WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS
ALONG THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEY EAST OF KPUB. 80S SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS
EL PASO COUNTY.

GIVEN THE WIND OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND MIN RH VALUES AOA 15%...POCKETS
OF ELEVATED AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT DUE TO THE MARGINAL VALUES...NO FIRE WX HILITES
WILL BE ISSUED.

TONIGHT...

WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLD SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING AS THE
COOL FRONT COMES DOWN AND SFC MSTR INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT.
HOWEVER NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WETTING PRECIP IS EXPECTED. BY
MIDNIGHT...ANY PRECIP WILL BE DONE AND OVER WITH. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOW
ENSEMBLE SPREADS LEADING TO A HIGHER LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH BROAD ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS ARE KEEPING
THE REGION DRY ON SATURDAY IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH. BY SUNDAY...WEAK ENERGY IN THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TO BE DRY. DRY AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION WHICH SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND.
FOR NOW COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK VERY WIDESPREAD SO FEEL THIS THREAT
IS SMALL AT THIS TIME...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BY TUESDAY MORNING. MOIST LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WEAK ENERGY
ALOFT IN THE TRAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP FIRE OFF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD IT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. GIVEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...THERE COULD BE
FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS ON THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR. AT THIS TIME
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREATS LOOKS LOW GIVEN THE WEAK
SHEAR...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS WESTERN CONUS AND MOVE
INTO THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK ENERGY
WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH IS
FORECAST TO EXCITE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE 90S.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
FROM THE WEST AT KALS AND KPUB AT 15-25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS AT KCOS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10-15 KTS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP BY 19Z AND MAY PASS NEAR THE KCOS AND KALS TERMINALS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE COULD PRODUCE SOME ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
TO 40KTS AND LIGHTNING. HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS
LIKELY AT KPUB TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL BRING A NORTH
WIND SHIFT AT KCOS AND KPUB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
-KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

 1054 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING OUT OVER EASTERN COLORADO
AT THE PRESENT TIME...AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO ASSIST
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ROUND OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO SHOULD HELP SURFACE WINDS
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TO BACK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DRAWING
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. CUMULUS FIELD
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING IS INDICATIVE OF THE
MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
ALL OF THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COME TOGETHER
FOR A FEW HOURS OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE OVER THE
FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE MOST PLENTIFUL. RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY NEAR THE COLORADO AND UTAH BORDER
AND WILL CROSS THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
VERTICAL VELOCITIES SHOWING MODEST ASCENT WILL OCCUR THROUGH
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST THEREAFTER. THIS ASCENT...COUPLED WITH DAY TIME HEATING...
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT IN MOST AREAS
TODAY. FORECAST REFLECTIVITIES FROM THE LAST FEW HRRR RUNS SEEM TO
HAVE A REASONABLE DEPICTION OF THIS ACTIVITY OVERALL WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS /SOME SEVERE/ AGAIN EXPECTED EAST OF THE URBAN
CORRIDOR WHERE RICHER MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES
WILL EXIST. CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE PALMER DIVIDE
AREA...MODELS SHOW DRIER LOW LEVELS LATER TODAY IMPLYING THAT
HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALLER RAIN CHANCES WILL
PREVAIL IN THOSE LOCALES. MOISTURE HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY BACK
INTO THE DENVER AREA THE LAST LITTLE WHILE AS SURFACE WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE NORTH. DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE UPTICK AND GPS
PRECIPITABLE WATER AT BOULDER HAS INCREASED 0.13 INCHES IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BANKING ON THIS MOISTENING BEING A TEMPORARY
SITUATION WITH DRYING EXPECTED MID TO LATE MORNING PRODUCING THE
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SHOWN IN THE MODELS. WITH THE QQ SUBSIDENCE
TAKING HOLD LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT CLEARING
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED MUCH AS SHOW IN THE WRF/CIRA FORECAST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE SOME LINGERING
OROGRAPHIC ACTIVITY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE TROUGH. MODERATELY FAST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP STORMS
MOVING ALONG TO MINIMIZE FLOODING CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

ON SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING WELL EAST OF THE STATE. THE FORMATION OF A
LEESLOPE MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCES DOWNSLOPE FLOW DURING THE MORNING
HOURS IN AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. NAM...GFS...ECMWF
AND GEM SHOW THIS DRY WESTERLY FLOW LASTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...
ALTHOUGH THESE SAME MODELS SHOW A SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY WIND
FARTHER OUT ON THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY WHICH DOES NOT APPARENT
TO REPLENISH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUSHED OUT BY THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW EARLIER IN THE DAY. SO SATURDAY SHOULD BE STORM-FREE EVEN IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY AS MID-LEVELS LOOK SUBSIDENT. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES NEAR AVERAGE MAX TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ON
THE PLAINS AND 60 AND 70S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. SATURDAY NIGHT
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE PLAINS STRENGTHENS WITH PRESSURE
FALLS UP IN NEBRASKA. THIS DRAWS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS
INDICATED BY THETA-E RIDGING ALONG THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE REGION WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING BY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS COULD SEE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ON THE MTN
RIDGES AND EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
AT THEIR STRONGEST. SUNDAY SHOULD START OUT DRY WITH POST-TROUGH
SUBSIDENCE...BUT DURING AFTERNOON CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A STEADY
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER. THE GFS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE NAM AND EC...SHOW A WEAK
BOUNDARY OF SOME KIND...PERHAPS A DRY LINE OR A SFC TROUGH...
STRADDLING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. THIS BNDRY...ASSUMING
ITS REAL...COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR A FEW HIGH BASED T-STORMS
CAPABLE OF STG GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF SHOWER. OTHERWISE SUNDAY LOOKS
DRY AND QUITE WARM...IF NOT HOT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND UPPER 60S TO
MID 80S ACRS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. HOWEVER WITH THE MODEST COOLING
ALOFT AND THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON...FEEL
MORE COMFORTABLE WITH GOING WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS...SAY THE
LOWER TO MID 90S ON THE PLAINS.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO ON NORTH-NORTHEAST SFC
WINDS AROUND MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THIS FRONTAL BNDRY RACING SOUTH
TO THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO LINE BY AROUND 12Z/MON. MOST MODELS SHOW
THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS TO BE DRY...HOWEVER THE NAM SHOWS ELEVATED
DEWPT AND RH VALUES SPREADING SOUTHWARD OVER NERN COLO BEHIND THE
FRONT DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS POSSIBLY RESULTING
IN A DECK OF STRATUS ACROSS THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE
THE ADVANCING AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER BY SEVERAL DEGS. BY
AFTERNOON...A STG SFC HIGH TRACKING ACRS WY CAUSES SFC WINDS EAST
OF THE CO FRONT RANGE TO TURN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY...AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WE COULD SEE LOW TOP CONVECTION OVER AND ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES...PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT SINCE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER APPEARS QUITE DRY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE ON MONDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO COOL AS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS SHOW A REINFORCING SURGE OF
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BACKING INTO NERN COLORADO LATE MONDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY PRODUCING A LOW CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF NERN COLORADO BY
MORNING. LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST. MOISTURE BROUGHT NWRD ON S-SELY BNDRY
LAYER FLOW MAY MAKE FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY TOGETHER WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. AT THIS TIME THE ODDS OF SEEING
WETTING RAINFALL APPEARS LOW AS THE AMBIENT AIRMASS APPEARS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY EVEN COOLER YET PARTICULARLY
EAST OF THE MTNS WITH READINGS AS MUCH AS 4-5 DEGS C BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THE DATE.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST IS PROGGED TO
MIGRATE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO. AS THE RIDGE PASSES
BY...SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE APPEARS TO DRAW UP
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR FROM A TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM
WHICH MODELS SHOW GAINING STRENGTH OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO.
THIS SETUP SOMEWHAT RESEMBLES A FLOW PATTERN COMMONLY OBSERVED
DURING OUR SUMMER MONSOON SEASON/ABOUT THE 2ND WEEK IN JULY TO
AROUND THE 2ND WEEK IN AUGUST/. LIGHT STEERING WINDS AND ELEVATED
PW VALUES COULD SPAWN SCATTERED LATE DAY T-STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA. WILL NOT EVEN ATTEMPT TO PIN
DOWN WHEN AND WHERE THIS MAY OCCUR. FOR NOW...SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF T-STORMS WILL SUFFICE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE MICROBURSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DOWNBURSTS AND MICROBURSTS.
OTHERWISE...OUTFLOW WINDS FROM SHOWERS WILL BE MORE 25-35 MPH.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND ABOVE 6000 FEET
AGL. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE DENVER AREA BY 6 PM MDT
WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER THAT. WINDS WILL RETURN TO
TYPICAL SOUTHERLIES BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...DANKERS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 1048 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FORECAST TO BRING IN CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BROUGHT MID TO UPPER 50 DEW
POINTS INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...HOWEVER
FINE LINE EVIDENT IN RADAR IS HEADING WESTWARD LIKELY MARKING THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE DRYING WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. RAP13 SUGGESTS THIS MOISTURE MAY STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF KIOWA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM. LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO BE CATCHING ON
TO THIS SCENARIO WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. SO WILL BE WATCHING THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OF TO THE NORTHEAST
FAIRLY QUICKLY. ELSEWHERE...HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THESE HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHER CONCERN IS SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
MODELS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO COME UP A BIT AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES
ACROSS. NOT GETTING ENOUGH AREAL COVERAGE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO GO OUT WITH A RED FLAG WARNING...BUT SPOTTY AREAS
MAY HIT CRITERIA AT TIMES. WILL BE MONITORING THIS EVOLUTION CLOSELY.
WITH THE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

CURRENTLY...

A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED VCNTY KLHX. THIS LOW WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STOUT SHORT WAVE WHICH WAS ENTERING INTO W CO AT
THIS HOUR (2 AM). EAST OF THIS LOW DWPTS WERE IN THE 60S WHILE ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR...DWPTS WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S. THE LLVL JET WAS
GRADUALLY DECREASING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AS WIND SPEEDS HAVE
BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING. A LARGE MCS WHICH WAS OVER NE/CO/KS AREA
EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS MOVED EAST IN C KS/C NE. HIGH BASED RADAR
ECHOES WERE NOTED OVER THE WEST SLOPE WITH SHOWERS OVER WY.

TODAY...

ALTHOUGH A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION...WE (NWS PUB
CWA) WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WX WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SVR STORM OVER FAR E
KIOWA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON....THE BRUNT OF ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
OCCUR JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA AS ALL GUIDANCE BREAKS OUT
SVR CONVECTION ACROSS NW KS AND NE CO. AS FOR THE MTNS...THE BEST
CHANCE OF TSRA AND DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL MTN
REGIONS TODAY. SFC WINDS OVER THE REGION WILL BE WESTERLY...AND THEY
WILL BE GUSTY OVER THE MTNS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH OVER
THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXITING OUT OF
THE ARK RVR VALLEY AND ACROSS N PUEBLO COUNTY.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDER
OVER E KIOWA COUNTY. EXPECT BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO OCCUR
AROUND THE 3-5 PM WINDOW...WITH THE ACTIVITY QUICKLY MOVING INTO WC
KS. WIND AND HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. IF THIS WX SYSTEM
WOULD HAVE BEEN ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER...THEN THE SVR THREAT WOULD
HAVE BEEN MUCH GREATER OVER OUR EASTERN PLAINS.

ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIF THUNDER IS EXPECTED IN THE
MTNS TODAY...WE WILL SEE SEVERAL CG FLASHES. THE MTNS HAVE NOT SEEN
HARDLY ANY PRECIP OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS AND IT HAS BEEN QUITE
WARM. LIKEWISE...I EXPECT WE WILL SEE A FEW FIRE STARTS DUE TO THE
LTG STRIKE ACTIVITY.

MAX TEMPS TODAY OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE WARM...BUT NOT AS WARM AS
YDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE L/M 90S MOST AREAS WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS
ALONG THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEY EAST OF KPUB. 80S SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS
EL PASO COUNTY.

GIVEN THE WIND OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND MIN RH VALUES AOA 15%...POCKETS
OF ELEVATED AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT DUE TO THE MARGINAL VALUES...NO FIRE WX HILITES
WILL BE ISSUED.

TONIGHT...

WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLD SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING AS THE
COOL FRONT COMES DOWN AND SFC MSTR INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT.
HOWEVER NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WETTING PRECIP IS EXPECTED. BY
MIDNIGHT...ANY PRECIP WILL BE DONE AND OVER WITH. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOW
ENSEMBLE SPREADS LEADING TO A HIGHER LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH BROAD ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS ARE KEEPING
THE REGION DRY ON SATURDAY IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH. BY SUNDAY...WEAK ENERGY IN THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TO BE DRY. DRY AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION WHICH SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND.
FOR NOW COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK VERY WIDESPREAD SO FEEL THIS THREAT
IS SMALL AT THIS TIME...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BY TUESDAY MORNING. MOIST LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WEAK ENERGY
ALOFT IN THE TRAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP FIRE OFF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD IT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. GIVEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...THERE COULD BE
FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS ON THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR. AT THIS TIME
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREATS LOOKS LOW GIVEN THE WEAK
SHEAR...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS WESTERN CONUS AND MOVE
INTO THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK ENERGY
WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH IS
FORECAST TO EXCITE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE 90S.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KPUB AND KALS THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH BASED -TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KCOS AND KALS...BUT THREAT IS TOO LOW
TO EXPLICITLY MENTION IN TAF PRODUCTS. ANY -TSRA WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

 426 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY NEAR THE COLORADO AND UTAH BORDER
AND WILL CROSS THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
VERTICAL VELOCITIES SHOWING MODEST ASCENT WILL OCCUR THROUGH
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST THEREAFTER. THIS ASCENT...COUPLED WITH DAY TIME HEATING...
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT IN MOST AREAS
TODAY. FORECAST REFLECTIVITIES FROM THE LAST FEW HRRR RUNS SEEM TO
HAVE A REASONABLE DEPICTION OF THIS ACTIVITY OVERALL WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS /SOME SEVERE/ AGAIN EXPECTED EAST OF THE URBAN
CORRIDOR WHERE RICHER MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES
WILL EXIST. CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE PALMER DIVIDE
AREA...MODELS SHOW DRIER LOW LEVELS LATER TODAY IMPLYING THAT
HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALLER RAIN CHANCES WILL
PREVAIL IN THOSE LOCALES. MOISTURE HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY BACK
INTO THE DENVER AREA THE LAST LITTLE WHILE AS SURFACE WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE NORTH. DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE UPTICK AND GPS
PRECIPITABLE WATER AT BOULDER HAS INCREASED 0.13 INCHES IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BANKING ON THIS MOISTENING BEING A TEMPORARY
SITUATION WITH DRYING EXPECTED MID TO LATE MORNING PRODUCING THE
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SHOWN IN THE MODELS. WITH THE QQ SUBSIDENCE
TAKING HOLD LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT CLEARING
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED MUCH AS SHOW IN THE WRF/CIRA FORECAST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE SOME LINGERING
OROGRAPHIC ACTIVITY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE TROUGH. MODERATELY FAST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP STORMS
MOVING ALONG TO MINIMIZE FLOODING CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

ON SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING WELL EAST OF THE STATE. THE FORMATION OF A
LEESLOPE MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCES DOWNSLOPE FLOW DURING THE MORNING
HOURS IN AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. NAM...GFS...ECMWF
AND GEM SHOW THIS DRY WESTERLY FLOW LASTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...
ALTHOUGH THESE SAME MODELS SHOW A SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY WIND
FARTHER OUT ON THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY WHICH DOES NOT APPARENT
TO REPLENISH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUSHED OUT BY THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW EARLIER IN THE DAY. SO SATURDAY SHOULD BE STORM-FREE EVEN IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY AS MID-LEVELS LOOK SUBSIDENT. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES NEAR AVERAGE MAX TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ON
THE PLAINS AND 60 AND 70S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. SATURDAY NIGHT
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE PLAINS STRENGTHENS WITH PRESSURE
FALLS UP IN NEBRASKA. THIS DRAWS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS
INDICATED BY THETA-E RIDGING ALONG THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER.

ON SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE REGION WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING BY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS COULD SEE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ON THE MTN
RIDGES AND EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
AT THEIR STRONGEST. SUNDAY SHOULD START OUT DRY WITH POST-TROUGH
SUBSIDENCE...BUT DURING AFTERNOON CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A STEADY
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER. THE GFS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE NAM AND EC...SHOW A WEAK
BOUNDARY OF SOME KIND...PERHAPS A DRY LINE OR A SFC TROUGH...
STRADDLING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. THIS BNDRY...ASSUMING
ITS REAL...COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR A FEW HIGH BASED T-STORMS
CAPABLE OF STG GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF SHOWER. OTHERWISE SUNDAY LOOKS
DRY AND QUITE WARM...IF NOT HOT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND UPPER 60S TO
MID 80S ACRS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. HOWEVER WITH THE MODEST COOLING
ALOFT AND THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON...FEEL
MORE COMFORTABLE WITH GOING WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS...SAY THE
LOWER TO MID 90S ON THE PLAINS.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO ON NORTH-NORTHEAST SFC
WINDS AROUND MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THIS FRONTAL BNDRY RACING SOUTH
TO THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO LINE BY AROUND 12Z/MON. MOST MODELS SHOW
THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS TO BE DRY...HOWEVER THE NAM SHOWS ELEVATED
DEWPT AND RH VALUES SPREADING SOUTHWARD OVER NERN COLO BEHIND THE
FRONT DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS POSSIBLY RESULTING
IN A DECK OF STRATUS ACROSS THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE
THE ADVANCING AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER BY SEVERAL DEGS. BY
AFTERNOON...A STG SFC HIGH TRACKING ACRS WY CAUSES SFC WINDS EAST
OF THE CO FRONT RANGE TO TURN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY...AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WE COULD SEE LOW TOP CONVECTION OVER AND ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES...PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT SINCE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER APPEARS QUITE DRY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE ON MONDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO COOL AS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS SHOW A REINFORCING SURGE OF
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BACKING INTO NERN COLORADO LATE MONDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY PRODUCING A LOW CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF NERN COLORADO BY
MORNING. LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST. MOISTURE BROUGHT NWRD ON S-SELY BNDRY
LAYER FLOW MAY MAKE FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY TOGETHER WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. AT THIS TIME THE ODDS OF SEEING
WETTING RAINFALL APPEARS LOW AS THE AMBIENT AIRMASS APPEARS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY EVEN COOLER YET PARTICULARLY
EAST OF THE MTNS WITH READINGS AS MUCH AS 4-5 DEGS C BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THE DATE.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST IS PROGGED TO
MIGRATE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO. AS THE RIDGE PASSES
BY...SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE APPEARS TO DRAW UP
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR FROM A TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM
WHICH MODELS SHOW GAINING STRENGTH OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO.
THIS SETUP SOMEWHAT RESEMBLES A FLOW PATTERN COMMONLY OBSERVED
DURING OUR SUMMER MONSOON SEASON/ABOUT THE 2ND WEEK IN JULY TO
AROUND THE 2ND WEEK IN AUGUST/. LIGHT STEERING WINDS AND ELEVATED
PW VALUES COULD SPAWN SCATTERED LATE DAY T-STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA. WILL NOT EVEN ATTEMPT TO PIN
DOWN WHEN AND WHERE THIS MAY OCCUR. FOR NOW...SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF T-STORMS WILL SUFFICE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR CONCERNS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE A BIT EARLIER TODAY...LATE MORNING...
WITH MICROBURSTS/WIND SHEAR BEING THE MAIN ISSUE IF LOW LEVELS DRY
OUT AS EXPECTED. ASIDE FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WINDS SHOULD
FAVOR THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT TODAY WITH DRAINAGE FLOW EXPECTED
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ET



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 1140 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...

DEW POINTS HOLDING IN LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THAN HIGH
RES SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGESTED...WHILE THEY HAVE DROPPED DOWN INTO
THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.  SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...WITH AXIS OF HIGHER DEW POINTS (50S) REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF KIOWA...PROWERS...AND BACA COUNTIES.  THIS SHOULD
YIELD UP TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE. 0-6 KM SHEARS INCREASE TO AROUND 30-
40 KTS BY 00Z...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  HRRR WHICH ORIGINALLY KEPT
SOUTHEAST CO DRY...HAS NOW TRENDED TOWARDS THE EARLIER RUNS OF THE
RAP13 AND NSSL WRF...GENERATING STORMS ACROSS BACA/PROWERS COUNTIES
BY 22Z...THEN MOVING THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO KS BY 02-03Z.  LCLS
WILL BE A TAD ON THE HIGH SIDE...SO MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHTNING. ELSEWHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE PIKES PEAK
REGION...BUT THESE WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING
AND ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE ACROSS  CO
THROUGH THE DAY.  TIMING OF THE TROF SUGGESTS GREATEST LIFT WILL BE
DURING THE MORNING...AND MODELS DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE IS HIGH BASED...SO PRIMARY THREATS WILL
BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS...THOUGH WITH THE TROF MOVING THROUGH
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM OR TWO OVER THE MOUNTAINS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME SMALL HAIL.  WITH LCLS FAIRLY
HIGH...THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ON BURN SCARS LOOKS LOW.  IN
FACT...TOMORROW RAISES CONCERNS FOR DRY LIGHTNING...BUT MOISTURE
LOOKS TO MEAGER FOR COVERAGE TO WARRANT A DRY LIGHTING OUTBREAK.
NONE THE LESS...FUELS STATUS PAGE INDICATES THAT
CHAFFEE...LAKE...FREMONT...TELLER AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET
MOUNTAINS HAVE DRIED OUT SUFFICIENTLY FOR FUELS TO BE CATEGORIZED AS
CRITICAL.

MEANWHILE...DRY LINE WILL MIX EASTWARD TO THE CO/KS BORDER...PUTTING
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER JUST OVER THE EASTERN BORDER INTO KANSAS.
GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE UPPER TROF...THIS LOOKS REASONABLY AND AGREE
WITH SPC DAY2 THREAT POSITION. ANY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME PRODUCING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF RAINFALL. -KT

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014

...WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND...

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...NO BIG CHANGES IN CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH DRY AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND
PASSING UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY
NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED GENERALLY HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE. DRY AND WARM WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO KEEP ANY
CONVECTION HIGH BASED AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD SEE HIGHS
WARMING BACK INTO THE 90S TO LOWER 100S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
PLAINS. WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED BREEZY AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS...FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHICH HAVE
NOT HAVE HAD MUCH PRECIPITATION RECENTLY.

MONDAY-THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT POSSIBLE START OF THE
SW MONSOON THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST....OWNING
TO INCREASING AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITHIN WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY AND SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXPECTED
INCREASING STORM COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS.
THERE WILL BE SOME VERY HIGH BASED CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 18Z ON FRI...AND AN ISOLATED TSRA COULD GET CLOSE TO KALS
AND KCOS AFTER ABOUT 20Z. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND STORMS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE MAINLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE N-NW AT KCOS AND KPUB 22Z-23Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 433 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MULTIPLE TROUGHS THEN
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIPRES CENTERED OVER QUEBEC BUILDS SEWD RIGHT OVER THE AREA TODAY.
EXTENSIVE MARINE STRATUS SHOWING UP ON THE 11-3.9 STLT...BUT
TRAJECTORY AND ADVANCE OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO RELEGATE MOST OF THIS
CLOUD COVER TO THE OCEAN FOR THIS AFTN. A FEW RENEGADE SHRA HAVE
CONTINUED TO POP UP THRU THE OVERNIGHT. RR QUAD OF THE JET APPEARS
TO BE AIDING. HAVE CONTINUED ISOLD SHRA IN THE FCST THRU THIS
MRNG ALL AREAS...AND OVER THE WRN 2/3 OF THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH
WEAK CONVERGENCE. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ALTHOUGH NOT IN THE FCST ATTM...THERE IS SOME EXTENSIVE RADIATION
FOG UNDER THE HIGH ACROSS NH/VT. WITH THE HIGH OVER THE AREA
TNGT...THIS MAY DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLR WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S OUTSIDE OF
THE CITY. THESE TEMPS ABOUT 8 DEGREES OR SO ABV RECORD LOWS.

THE HIGH SETS UP OVER THE AREA SAT WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL
TEMPS. NUMBERS CLOSE TO GMOS. LIGHT WIND FIELDS CONDUCIVE TO SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH REMAINS SPRAWLED ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND UNDER DEEP LAYERED RIDGING.
OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS GENERALLY A DRY...YET WARMING PATTERN.
BUILD MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES SAT NIGHT LEADING INTO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY. COULD SEE
SOME CU DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING COMBINING WITH
ONSHORE FLOW/ENHANCED SEA BREEZE FORMATION.

SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING
ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE FIRST OF MANY SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. HIGH REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE MONDAY WITH THERMAL TROUGH
SETTING UP BY MONDAY AFTN...RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER
INTERIOR AREAS WEST OF NYC METRO. PCPN THREAT WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING ALOFT.
EACH DAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHC OF PCPN WITH STRONGER SFC TROUGHS
SETTING UP COMBINING WITH BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST BY MID WEEK. 00Z MODEL RUNS
SUGGESTING COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA SOMETIME LATER WED...THOUGH
DOESNT ACTUALLY CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL LATER THURSDAY. AS
SUCH...CONTINUAL SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE LEVELS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN
PLACE WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE/DEW PTS AND TEMPS SO HAVE
INCLUSION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS ALSO GENERALLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SETTLES TO THE SOUTH...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY.

ANY EARLY MORNING STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CU TODAY. NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS WILL VEER TO
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AS ANY CLOUDS GIVE WAY
TO CLEAR SKIES.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE SE AND SEA BREEZE
MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN SOUTHERLY SEABREEZE APPROACHES AND PASSES ACROSS THE
AIRPORT.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE SE MAY BE OFF AN
HOUR OR TWO.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH MON...
.FRI NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...VFR.
.MON AND TUE...AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN TERMINALS. MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AROUND 4 FT ON THE OCEAN WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY AS THE
PEAK WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT PASS. SEAS JUST BLW 5 FT SO NO SCA
ISSUED. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS THRU SAT. HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD PUSH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT BY TUESDAY...THOUGH STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO
REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THOUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/SEARS
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...JMC/SEARS








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

 358 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MULTIPLE TROUGHS THEN
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIPRES CENTERED OVER QUEBEC BUILDS SEWD RIGHT OVER THE AREA TODAY.
EXTENSIVE MARINE STRATUS SHOWING UP ON THE 11-3.9 STLT...BUT
TRAJECTORY AND ADVANCE OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO RELEGATE MOST OF THIS
CLOUD COVER TO THE OCEAN FOR THIS AFTN. A FEW RENEGADE SHRA HAVE
CONTINUED TO POP UP THRU THE OVERNIGHT. RR QUAD OF THE JET APPEARS
TO BE AIDING. HAVE CONTINUED ISOLD SHRA IN THE FCST THRU THIS
MRNG ALL AREAS...AND OVER THE WRN 2/3 OF THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH
WEAK CONVERGENCE. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ALTHOUGH NOT IN THE FCST ATTM...THERE IS SOME EXTENSIVE RADIATION
FOG UNDER THE HIGH ACROSS NH/VT. WITH THE HIGH OVER THE AREA
TNGT...THIS MAY DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLR WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S OUTSIDE OF
THE CITY. THESE TEMPS ABOUT 8 DEGREES OR SO ABV RECORD LOWS.

THE HIGH SETS UP OVER THE AREA SAT WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL
TEMPS. NUMBERS CLOSE TO GMOS. LIGHT WIND FIELDS CONDUCIVE TO SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH REMAINS SPRAWLED ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND UNDER DEEP LAYERED RIDGING.
OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS GENERALLY A DRY...YET WARMING PATTERN.
BUILD MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES SAT NIGHT LEADING INTO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY. COULD SEE
SOME CU DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING COMBINING WITH
ONSHORE FLOW/ENHANCED SEA BREEZE FORMATION.

SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING
ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE FIRST OF MANY SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. HIGH REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE MONDAY WITH THERMAL TROUGH
SETTING UP BY MONDAY AFTN...RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER
INTERIOR AREAS WEST OF NYC METRO. PCPN THREAT WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING ALOFT.
EACH DAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHC OF PCPN WITH STRONGER SFC TROUGHS
SETTING UP COMBINING WITH BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST BY MID WEEK. 00Z MODEL RUNS
SUGGESTING COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA SOMETIME LATER WED...THOUGH
DOESNT ACTUALLY CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL LATER THURSDAY. AS
SUCH...CONTINUAL SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE LEVELS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN
PLACE WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE/DEW PTS AND TEMPS SO HAVE
INCLUSION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS ALSO GENERALLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TRACKING MVFR CIGS BEHIND THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS GIVE WAY TO VFR CIGS...WITH
CLEARING LIKELY FROM EAST TO WEST THIS MORNING.

E/NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE S-SE WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZE INFLUENCES.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH MON...
.FRI NIGHT-SUN...VFR.
.MON AND TUE...AFT/EVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT PSBL ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AROUND 4 FT ON THE OCEAN WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY AS THE
PEAK WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT PASS. SEAS JUST BLW 5 FT SO NO SCA
ISSUED. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS THRU SAT. HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD PUSH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT BY TUESDAY...THOUGH STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO
REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THOUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/SEARS
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...JMC/SEARS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

 442 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY
AND PASS OFFSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LINGER OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT OVER THE AREA
MIDWEEK...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN....WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES AT THE SURFACE ALONG A LEE-SIDE
TROUGH THAT RUNS THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA SANDHILLS INTO THE
SOUTH CAROLINA PEE DEE REGION. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES
TO TRACK A SHORT WAVE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...THIS FEATURE HEADED
EASTWARD. AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAWN WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT SOUTH OF I-16 IN
SE GEORGIA IN RESPONSE TO WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE SPARSE CONVERAGE POTENTIAL OVERALL. TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S COAST.

THE SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH GEORGIA WILL PASS OVER THE CAROLINAS
TODAY...FLATTENING THE RIDGE THAT DOMINATED ON THURSDAY AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO SURGE NEAR 2.25 INCHES OVER MUCH OF EASTERN GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA BUT EXPECT A DECENT CAP WILL PROHIBIT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THROUGH 17Z-18Z. TOUGH TO GET A READ ON THE CLOUDS
DURING MORNING INSOLATION TIME BUT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S BY MID AFTERNOON.

NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STEADILY DRIFT SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...EVENTUALLY DRIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE
OVERNIGHT. THE NSSL WRF DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE SCALE
MESO-LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...PASSING OFF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST LATE...THIS SOLUTION WITH TIMING/AREAL UNCERTAINTIES IS
ACTUALLY A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO SINCE MODELS CONTINUE TO GRAB AN MCV
AND PORTRAY AN EVENTUAL SURFACE LOW OVER THE ATLC. THIS AFTERNOON...
CONVECTIVE SCALE STEERING PROFILES ARE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SE
CAROLINA...BUT 25-30 KT OVER THE ALTAMAHA RIVER REGION OF GEORGIA
WHERE A 700 MB WIND MAX IS PROGGED.

OUR MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT IS LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PROGS.
NORTH OF I-16...THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISMS WILL BE BOUNDARIES
AS THE SURFACE LOW DROPS IN FROM THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS. ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER FROM WET MICROBURSTS IN MULTICELL CLUSTERS MAY
OCCUR WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN BOTH SPACE AND TIME. WE BUMPED POPS
UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ALONG THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW IN SE
SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONGER CAPPING TO THE SOUTH
OF I-16 TODAY COULD KEEP CONVECTION ISOLATED GIVEN THE FACT THE
SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED INTO COASTAL SE GEORGIA. THE DEEP
LAYERED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS TODAY ARE TYPICAL OF THE
SEASON...POOR ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN 700 MB AND 500 MB...DIABATIC
HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCING UPDRAFTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS AN EAST-WEST BAND OF MID LEVEL OMEGA PASSES OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA. WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LIKELY MORE PREVALENT
THAN SEVERE WEATHER...WILL HIGHLIGHT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
ACCORDINGLY TODAY.

OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS AND TSTMS CHANCES MAY LINGER ALONG COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH OF BEAUFORT AS A LIGHT FLOW SHIFTS
ONSHORE AND DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTS. CONVECTION OVER SE GEORGIA
SHOULD DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER...DEPENDENT ON
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE WAVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST WHILE A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS ALONG THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS
THIS OCCURS...MID LVL RIDGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY
FLATTEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE FIRST OF TWO H5 SHORTWAVES
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
BETWEEN THE SFC LOW ALONG THE COAST AND THE SFC HIGH TO THE
NORTH...AND THUS THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PWATS NEAR
2.0 INCHES. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE SHORTWAVE
SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. A FEW AREAS COULD REACH THE MID 90S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
MID LVL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
WILL BE IN A WEAKENING STAGE AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHILE
PWATS REMAIN NEAR 2.0 INCHES DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST. LOW-END CHANCE POPS WILL
THEREFORE REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SATURDAY...RANGING IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

MONDAY...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND/OR OFFSHORE
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
COAST. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS POTENTIALLY DRYER CONDITIONS GIVEN THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...LOW-END CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WHILE PWATS
REMAIN AROUND 2.0 INCHES DURING PEAK HEATING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE FURTHER INLAND AS SFC FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE
AND A SEABREEZE SHIFTS INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LATEST
1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S
ALONG THE COAST TO LOW/MID 90S WELL INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REPRESENT MORE OF A SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE WEEK AS A SFC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AS A PARENT SFC LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
COULD LINGER INTO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA
WHILE PWATS PEAK NEAR 2.0 INCHES. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE SFC
SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS A FEW DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH
OVERALL HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL TYPICALLY RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WARMEST ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND TSTMS CHANCES LOOK TO BE RAMPING UP AFTER
MID AFTERNOON TODAY AND CONVECTIVE RAINS COULD LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WE HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS AFTER 20Z AND THE 12Z TAF
RELEASE WILL BE INVESTIGATING WHETHER TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE REQUIRED
AND IF A SLIGHTLY EARLIER INITIATION TIME FRAME IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN
18Z AND 20Z. STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH
WILL REDUCE VSBYS UNDER THE CELL BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF CEILING/VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...SURFACE FLOW WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT. WINDS MAY BECOME
LIGHT/VRBL NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE TONIGHT. THE MAIN
RISK TO MARINERS WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF TSTMS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRES DRIFTS OFFSHORE BY DAWN ON SATURDAY. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS
SOUTH AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEAS SHOULD THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD ON TUESDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
IN OFFSHORE WATERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS POCATELLO ID

 933 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.UPDATE...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
OREGON/WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. TWO MAIN AREAS OF SHOWERS IN
IDAHO. FIRST IN NORTHEAST CORNER MAINLY VICINITY AND NORTHEAST OF
IDAHO FALLS. 2ND MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST IDAHO THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EASTERN HIGHLANDS IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. INSTABILITY
INCREASES DURING THE DAY PARTICULARLY IN NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST
AREA PER LATEST NAM. HAVE PUSHED POPS UPWARD THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND ADJUSTED QPF UPWARD SLIGHTLY AS WELL. DMH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING OVER THE CASCADES
SHOULD HELP TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. NAM SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AROUND MID-MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN EARLY START TO
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THAT AREA. HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS SHOWERS ALSO
DEVELOPING AROUND THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN OVER IDAHO FALLS. AS THE
SHORTWAVE NEARS...CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
IDAHO AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST PWATS OF
0.8 TO 1.0 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY
OCCUR. WIND SPEEDS SUPPORT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOW-END OF THE SCALE.
LINGERING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TOMORROW MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING
MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY ZONAL AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SETTLE IN. STARTING
MONDAY...MODELS SHOWING STRONG SUPPORT FOR UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE PAC NW AND AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS
SHOULD KEEP US DRY AND WARM THROUGH MID-WEEK. BY THEN THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON PRECIP. HINSBERGER

AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT MOVING OVER
SOUTHEAST IDAHO AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE PLAIN THIS
MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP VICINITY OF KSUN
18Z...KIDA 19Z...AND KPIH AND KBYI 20Z AND CONTINUES THROUGH 02Z.
SATURDAY...THE STORM TRACK BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR KSUN EARLY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. RS

FIRE WEATHER...ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
WEST WINDS ALOFT WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS NOON TIME THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
05 TO .20 INCH POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
HIGHLAND AREAS. SATURDAY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE STORM TRACK
WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN THE SALMON-CHALLIS
FOREST AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING IDZ021.

&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS POCATELLO ID

 331 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING OVER THE CASCADES
SHOULD HELP TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. NAM SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AROUND MID-MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN EARLY START TO
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THAT AREA. HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS SHOWERS ALSO
DEVELOPING AROUND THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN OVER IDAHO FALLS. AS THE
SHORTWAVE NEARS...CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
IDAHO AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST PWATS OF
0.8 TO 1.0 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY
OCCUR. WIND SPEEDS SUPPORT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOW-END OF THE SCALE.
LINGERING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TOMORROW MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING
MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY ZONAL AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SETTLE IN. STARTING
MONDAY...MODELS SHOWING STRONG SUPPORT FOR UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE PAC NW AND AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS
SHOULD KEEP US DRY AND WARM THROUGH MID-WEEK. BY THEN THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON PRECIP. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT MOVING OVER
SOUTHEAST IDAHO AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE PLAIN THIS
MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP VICINITY OF KSUN
18Z...KIDA 19Z...AND KPIH AND KBYI 20Z AND CONTINUES THROUGH 02Z.
SATURDAY...THE STORM TRACK BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR KSUN EARLY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. RS
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
WEST WINDS ALOFT WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS NOON TIME THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
.05 TO .20 INCH POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
HIGHLAND AREAS. SATURDAY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE STORM TRACK
WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN THE SALMON-CHALLIS
FOREST AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. RS
&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING IDZ021.

&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 355 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
355 AM CDT

FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS MAINLY ON DAILY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AND WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS DENSE
FOG WITHIN A FEW MILES OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING.

SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT. AN ELONGATED SURFACE LEE-TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...MOVING EAST TONIGHT WITH DEEPER
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE
TO NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORT WAVE WHICH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A STATIONARY FRONT GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST AS SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS...BRINGING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE AXIS OF
500-600 J/KG MUCAPE DEVELOPS...THOUGH LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT
FOCUS IS NOTED EXCEPT PERHAPS LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER NORTHEAST
IL. FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK...AND ANY STORMS WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR MASS (1.50-1.75" IN UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS) WILL
LIKELY AGAIN SUPPORT FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHERE
SHOWERS/STORMS FORM. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN SPOTS
INTO THIS EVENING...THOUGH WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF
DIURNAL INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. AS FOR DENSE FOG EXTENDING SEVERAL
MILES INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH MID MORNING
AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM...AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST DECREASING
FETCH OVER THE LAKE WATERS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN LAKE
COOLING MAINLY ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
TEMPERATURES INLAND REACHING THE MID-80S IN MOST LOCATIONS AND
PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA.
GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN TOO COOL OF LATE IN THE ABSENCE OF LAKE
COOLING/PRECIP.

WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SLOWLY EAST. ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY...THOUGH
WITH PERHAPS A BETTER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY HOWEVER...AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE FAIRLY WARM AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE LESS CLOUD
COVER IS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. MODEL THERMAL FIELDS INDICATE UPPER
80S/NEAR 90 DEGREES...WITH PUSH OF HIGHER DEW POINT TEMPS NOTED AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS IS A
LITTLE LOWER THAN AVERAGE HOWEVER...GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CLOUDS/PRECIP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.

STRONGER FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS 100+ KT UPPER
JET SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY ACROSS MN/IA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY SPREAD INTO IL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING A GREATER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

GRADUAL COOL-DOWN APPEARS IN STORE FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT
WEEK...AS LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH TEMPS IN THE 75-80 RANGE WITH LAKE BREEZES BU
WED/THURS.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* LIFR/VLIFR CIGS/VIS THROUGH 13Z-14Z.
* SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY...POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE.
* CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. CMS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BUT CONTINUED THE
CURRENT 13Z END TIME AS HIGH SUN ANGLE AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY QUICK DISSIPATING OF BOTH THE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...THOUGH SOME TWEAKS TO TIMING CAN BE EXPECTED
AS TRENDS EMERGE. CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL
DROP PRIOR TO SUNRISE IS LOW AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND ITS POSSIBLE
VIS MAY DROP BELOW 1SM.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-12KTS BY LATE MORNING AND
LIKELY A BIT STRONGER ACROSS NORTHWEST IL AND AT RFD WHERE SOME
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE IL SHORE
BUT HOW FAR INLAND IT MOVES IS UNCERTAIN AND WHILE MAINTAINED A
SOUTHEAST WIND AT ORD...REMOVED A SHIFT TO MORE EASTERLY THOUGH IT
IS STILL POSSIBLE.

TSRA POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE GREATEST MAINLY WEST
OF THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS AND ADDED VCTS AT RFD. BUT IF THIS
ACTIVITY FORMS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHRA
AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS INTERACTIONS WITH THE LAKE BREEZE
OR ACTIVITY FORMING ON THE LAKE BREEZE ITSELF. CONFIDENCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA TRENDS FOR THE CHICAGO TERMINALS IS LOW ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN JUST THE VCSH BUT CONTINUED MENTION THROUGH MID EVENING.
CMS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH FOR LIFR/VLIFR CIGS/VIS THROUGH 13Z-14Z...MEDIUM FOR END
  TIME.
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOW FOR LAKE BREEZE
  REACHING ORD/MDW.
* MEDIUM FOR SHRA/TSRA...LOW FOR COVERAGE/LOCATION. CMS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND MVFR OR LOWER CIGS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.

KJB

&&

.MARINE...

313 AM...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES
WILL DEEPEN TODAY AND LIFT INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND
THEN BECOME STATIONARY AS IT DEEPENS FURTHER. DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC
AS IT SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THIS WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE GRADIENT
WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY THEN SOUTHERLY SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS
GRADUALLY INCREASING. THE GRADIENT WOULD SUGGEST THERE COULD BE
PERIODS OF WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS BUT GIVEN
HOW COLD THE OPEN WATERS REMAIN...THERE COULD BE A RATHER SHARP
MARINE INVERSION PREVENTING SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS FROM
REACHING THE SURFACE.

DENSE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS SPEEDS
INCREASE AND TURN SOUTHEASTERLY. HOWEVER...THE FOG MAY JUST BE
BLOWN FURTHER NORTH AND REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...THUS AN EXTENSION IN BOTH TIME AND LOCATION
IS POSSIBLE WITH THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY. CMS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.

IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
     LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
     LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 PM FRIDAY.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
340 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 322 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014
SHORT TERM...Today and tonight...
Same hot and humid airmass...same forecast. Not much of a shift in
the forecast overall. Poor model performance with respect to
convection and a summer regime dominated with afternoon/evening
convection chances results in poor confidence for any one period.
The result is a lot of low chance pops...some slight chances for
more isolated events...throughout the forecast. Only distinct
event in the short term centers around a wave out to the west that
is progged to move across the Miss River Valley later today/this
evening. It is a little ahead of schedule so far as it moves
through IA. But just as it does, the convection is becoming weaker
and spreading out. Timing of the wave over Central Illinois this
afternoon will be the driving impact to shower/ts chances. For
now, remaining at chance pops, and dropping the pops into the
overnight hours. More hot and humid tomorrow with increasing
chance for showers and thunderstorms into the afternoon as a trof
digs in aloft amplifying the flow over the CONUS and placing ILX
in increasingly swrly flow aloft.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday...
Same deepening low aloft finally starting to show more significant
cyclogenesis at the sfc...but still slow to move. As the first
frontal boundary/sfc trof ripples around the low, stormy late
Saturday will carry over into Sunday. After a brief break, the
more significant cold front/dynamic lift is progged to pass
through Monday night/Tuesday. Timing is still a bit of a question
mark with the recent model performance. But should the pattern
shift and cold front move through as expected, cooler temperatures
should be in place for Tuesday through Thursday, as region is
impacted with northwesterly flow. Cool temps are short lived,
however, as heat continues to build under the ridging in the
desert SW.

HJS
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1133 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014

Not too many changes to the aviation forecast through Friday.
Continued to have MVFR visibilities between 08Z-14Z with patchy
fog. HRRR model continues to keep low clouds below 1k ft and dense
fog closer to Lake MI tonight as light se flow keeps this more
widespread fog ne of central IL. Scattered to broken mid/high
clouds to affect central IL especially at PIA tonight with ese
winds 4-7 kts. A warm front over central IL is slowly lifting ne
tonight (as east winds veer ese) and will lift ne of central IL
Fri morning as 1020 mb high pressure over MI drifts into the eastern
Great Lakes and mid Atlantic states Friday afternoon. SSE winds
increasing to 9-13 kts after 14Z/9 am and 5-8 kts after sunset
Fri. Scattered to broken cumulus clouds 3.5-5k ft develop after
14Z Friday and have VCTS from 20-01Z due to diurnally driven
isolated convection especially sw of BMI and CMI where deeper
tropical moisture will be.

07
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1254 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
824 PM CDT

ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...FORTUNATELY THIS
AFTERNOONS CONVECTION WAS EVEN FURTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST. THE BIGGER
CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING IS ON THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS ALREADY
BEGUN TO MOVE INLAND. MANY LOCATIONS OF LAKE SHORE DRIVE HAVE
ALREADY OBSERVED VISBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER
MILE...AND BASED ON THE WIND FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN ADDTL POINTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL LIKELY DIP DOWN
TOWARDS ONE QUARTER MILE TONIGHT. DESPITE THE WEAK SFC RIDGE
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND WINDS EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY...DENSE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR THE LAKESHORE
LOCATIONS UNTIL JUST AFT DAYBREAK FRI. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FAR
EASTERN LAKE COUNTY IL COULD CONTINUE TO SEE DENSE FOG THRU
MIDDAY.

FURTHER INLAND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING VISIBILIITES DIP TO ARND
ONE HALF MILE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL SLOWLY COOL TO
AROUND 60 TO THE LOW 60S. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME WEAK MID-LVL
VORTICITY PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWFA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING THE CURRENT ISOLATED
CONVECTION FROM IOWA EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH
INTO THE CWFA.

BEACHLER

//PREV DISCUSSION...
306 PM CDT

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...FOG AND STRATUS TRENDS...AND WITH
WARMING TEMPS.

RELATIVELY QUIET AFTERNOON AS CURRENTLY NO PRECIP ACROSS THE
CWA...AND WHILE FOG STRATUS HOLD RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. STRATUS FROM LAST NIGHT WAS SLOW TO DIMINISH
TODAY...SLOWLY ERODED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRATUS...STABLE CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT THIS TIME WITH LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTING A DECENT AMOUNT OF CIN STILL IN PLACE.
THESE STABLE CONDITIONS CAN BE NOTED WITH LITTLE OR NO DIURNAL CU
ON SATELLITE. WHERE THERE IS CU DEVELOPMENT IS RIGHT ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF A LINGERING BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM JUST SOUTH OF
THE QUAD CITIES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BLOOMINGTON AREA...AND THEN
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
POOL IN THE UPPER 60S RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WITH WEAK MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL
WEAK SUPPORT PER APPROACHING WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE IN THE PRESENCE
OF THIS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS AIDING IN THIS CU DEVELOPMENT AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT CAN BE
NOTED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FAIRBURY TO GIBSON CITY ILLINOIS AREA.
ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALONG THIS LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WITH STEERING FLOW...ALTHOUGH RATHER WEAK...TAKING
ANY DEVELOPMENT EAST INTO THE FAR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA. WITH
COVERAGE LIKELY REMAINING ISOLATED AND BRIEF...DID REDUCE POPS AND
KEPT THEM CONFINED TO THESE AREAS. WEAK FORCING AND EVEN WEAKER
SHEAR WILL RESULT IN NO ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY SEVERE
WEATHER NOT LIKELY. DECENT MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE COULD RESULT IN
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. BEST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR FURTHER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT DOES REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA.
DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN
FOR THE SAME GENERAL AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON TO LINGER AND MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIFTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH
IOWA INTO WISCONSIN POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH WAA WING.

MARINE FOG AND STRATUS CAN BE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...AND WITH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF IT GONE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. DESPITE SOME
FURTHER EROSION ON THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS/FOG...THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SIMILAR SITUATION TO UNFOLD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THIS
MOISTURE MOVING BACK INLAND...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS QUICK THIS
EVENING WITH WEAKER FLOW IN PLACE. MORE CONFIDENT WITH THE STRATUS
MOVING BACK INLAND...BUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO THE EXTENT OF
THE DENSE FOG. COULD SEE IT BEING MORE STRATUS DOMINATED WITH
AREAS OF FOG AND ONLY PATCHY DENSE FOG OBSERVED. THE MORE DENSE
FOG SHOULD STAY CLOSER TO THE LAKE...BUT WITH FOG STILL LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

RISING HEIGHTS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH RIDGE AXIS
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MOISTURE/TEMP ADVECTION RAMPING
UP. LIFTING BOUNDARY AS WELL AS SOME WEAKER ENERGY DRAWING CLOSE
TO THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PRIMARILY REMAINING CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. OVERALL COVERAGE/DURATION SHOULD BE
LOW...WITH ONLY BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECTED. LIMITED COVERAGE
TO THIS PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WARM DAY WITH
MID TO UPPER 80S LIKELY.

THE WEEKEND WILL OBSERVE FURTHER WARMING CONDITIONS WITH FURTHER
MOISTURE ADVECTION BRINGING DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 BACK TO THE CWA.
SIMILAR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH
INCREASING FLOW/ENERGY ALOFT FROM THE WEST. BETTER SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND LOWER LEVEL FOCUS ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WITH
THIS BETTER FOCUS DID INCREASE TO HIGHER CHANCE POPS. DESPITE
WEAKER FLOW REMAINING...THIS BETTER FOCUS IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS COULD PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO
REMAINING A POSSIBILITY.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* LIFR/VLIFR CIGS/VIS THROUGH 13Z-14Z.
* SOUTHEAST WINDS TOAY...POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE.
* CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. CMS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BUT CONTINUED THE
CURRENT 13Z END TIME AS HIGH SUN ANGLE AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY QUICK DISSIPATING OF BOTH THE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...THOUGH SOME TWEAKS TO TIMING CAN BE EXPECTED
AS TRENDS EMERGE. CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL
DROP PRIOR TO SUNRISE IS LOW AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND ITS POSSIBLE
VIS MAY DROP BELOW 1SM.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-12KTS BY LATE MORNING AND
LIKELY A BIT STRONGER ACROSS NORTHWEST IL AND AT RFD WHERE SOME
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE IL SHORE
BUT HOW FAR INLAND IT MOVES IS UNCERTAIN AND WHILE MAINTAINED A
SOUTHEAST WIND AT ORD...REMOVED A SHIFT TO MORE EASTERLY THOUGH IT
IS STILL POSSIBLE.

TSRA POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE GREATEST MAINLY WEST
OF THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS AND ADDED VCTS AT RFD. BUT IF THIS
ACTIVITY FORMS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHRA
AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS INTERACTIONS WITH THE LAKE BREEZE
OR ACTIVITY FORMING ON THE LAKE BREEZE ITSELF. CONFIDENCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA TRENDS FOR THE CHICAGO TERMINALS IS LOW ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN JUST THE VCSH BUT CONTINUED MENTION THROUGH MID EVENING.
CMS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH FOR LIFR/VLIFR CIGS/VIS THROUGH 13Z-14Z...MEDIUM FOR END
  TIME.
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOW FOR LAKE BREEZE
  REACHING ORD/MDW.
* MEDIUM FOR SHRA/TSRA...LOW FOR COVERAGE/LOCATION. CMS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND MVFR OR LOWER CIGS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.

KJB

&&

.MARINE...
230 PM CDT

HIGH PRESSURE IS SPRAWLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA.
SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH FLOW WILL INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...TOPPING OUT IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING UP FRESH 70
DEGREE DEWPOINTS OVER THE STILL COOL WATERS OF THE LAKE AND COULD
PROLONG THE FOG THREAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SPREAD THE AREAS
OF FOG BACK TO THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD BY
MIDWEEK.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.

IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.

LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
     LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
     LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 PM FRIDAY.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.

&&

$$

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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1133 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 855 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014

Forecast is doing well this evening and main update is to remove
evening period with isolated showers and thunderstorms ending at
dusk, similar to past couple of evenings. Patchy fog should develop
again after midnight as temperatures settle toward dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s. Though not expecting the widespread dense fog
over the northeast counties that occurred early this morning.
Latest HRRR model run shows low clouds below 1k ft and dense fog
staying closer to Lake MI in northeast IL by Chicago metro tonight
due to light southeast winds instead of northeast winds last
night. Winds to remain light to calm tonight with frontal boundary
lingering over central IL.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1133 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014

Not too many changes to the aviation forecast through Friday.
Continued to have MVFR visibilities between 08Z-14Z with patchy
fog. HRRR model continues to keep low clouds below 1k ft and dense
fog closer to Lake MI tonight as light se flow keeps this more
widespread fog ne of central IL. Scattered to broken mid/high
clouds to affect central IL especially at PIA tonight with ese
winds 4-7 kts. A warm front over central IL is slowly lifting ne
tonight (as east winds veer ese) and will lift ne of central IL
Fri morning as 1020 mb high pressure over MI drifts into the eastern
Great Lakes and mid Atlantic states Friday afteroon. SSE winds
increasing to 9-13 kts after 14Z/9 am and 5-8 kts after sunset
Fri. Scattered to broken cumulus clouds 3.5-5k ft develop after
14Z Friday and have VCTS from 20-01Z due to diurnally driven
isolated convection especially sw of BMI and CMI where deeper
tropical moisture will be.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday: Typical summer-like weather
expected across central and southeast Illinois over the next
couple of days. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms,
diurnally driven, are expected each afternoon and evening. There
is little in the way of focus for organized convection aside from
weak surface boundaries. Peak diurnal instability should be around
1500 j/kg, but bulk shear values will average less than 20 kts
(sometimes much less). High temperatures will climb well into the
80s.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday: A couple stronger waves are
forecast to arrive during the period, currently moving through
Sunday, and again Monday into Tuesday. These waves, and associated
stronger wind fields, will be accompanied by a more organized risk
of showers and thunderstorms. Can`t rule out a severe risk with
these waves, but not enough confidence in the details to hit too
hard on the threat right now. Temperatures will cool a bit behind
the second wave as upper heights fall and flow turns northwesterly,
with daytime highs falling to around 80 degrees by midweek.

BAK

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

 1238 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

WEAK WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA AND WILL LIFT NORTH
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
AFFECT THE AREA. A SIGNIFICANT NEG TILT TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SECOND UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND ALSO
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE MON AND TUE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

WEAK MCV IN SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH 15Z. THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS CLUSTER MOVING NORTHWARD...BUT MAINLY STRATIFORM PRECIP
TRAILS BEHIND.

500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL TRANSITION EAST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXPECTING THE SOUTHWEST
TO DRY OUT PAST 18Z. HAVE THE HIGHER POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AS THE DEEPER FORCING MOVES INTO EASTERN IOWA WITH THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE. NO SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE STATE
AND IS EVIDENT THE DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE REMAINS PRESENT PER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT DSM. WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS RANGING AROUND
12KFT TO NEAR 13KFT AND THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.50 TO
1.75 INCH RANGE...SO STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS TODAY AS GENERALLY THE 1 TO NEAR 3 INCH PER
HOUR RATES ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE STORM PROGRESSION LOOKS TO BE
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS TODAY PER CORFIDI VECTORS...SO THE HEAVY RAIN
OVER ONE AREA SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED UNLESS BACK-BUILDING OCCURS LIKE
THURSDAY. THE 27.05Z HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...ALBEIT ROUGHLY TWO HOURS TOO FAST...BUT LEANED TOWARD THE
HRRR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR POP/WX TRENDS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF IA WHERE
THERE IS STRONGER FORCING. NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF IA. THE COLD
FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRENGTHENING JET STREAM...OVER 80
KTS, WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION BOTH SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE BODY
OF THE ZONES. DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER THICKNESS...OVER 4 KM AND PWAT
VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS PRETTY HIGH WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE NEAR 5000 J/KG. THOUGH NOT PERFECT, THE
HODOGRAPHS ARE FAVORABLE WITH DECENT SHEAR...BOTH SPEED AND
DIRECTION...IN PLACE.

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ON TAP FROM THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
ON. THE COLDEST AIR WILL MISS IA TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE COOLING
TREND DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL LAST ALL THAT LONG EITHER. DON`T
EXPECT TO SEE MORE THAN TWO OR THREE DAYS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...27/18Z
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT DSM/MCW/ALO
INTERMITTENTLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME. EXPECT THE
STORMS TO END BY AROUND 22Z OR EARLIER...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING IN THE EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. AS WARM AIR/MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN WITH LIGHT BR
LIKELY FORMING AND HAVE INDICATED THIS IN THE 18Z TAFS. FURTHER
TSRA POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING IS A CONCERN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

WITH HIGH PWATS AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF WEATHER SYSTEM...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS FAIRLY HIGH. RAINFALL OF THE PAST DAY
OR SO HAS MOISTENED SOILS SO THE FFG IS DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL COME SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THE CURRENT PATTERN GIVES AT LEAST SOME RISK TO THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS JUN 14
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS JUN 14
AVIATION...LEE
HYDROLOGY...MS JUN 14



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

 648 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

WEAK WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA AND WILL LIFT NORTH
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
AFFECT THE AREA. A SIGNIFICANT NEG TILT TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SECOND UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND ALSO
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE MON AND TUE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

WEAK MCV IN SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH 15Z. THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS CLUSTER MOVING NORTHWARD...BUT MAINLY STRATIFORM PRECIP
TRAILS BEHIND.

500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL TRANSITION EAST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXPECTING THE SOUTHWEST
TO DRY OUT PAST 18Z. HAVE THE HIGHER POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AS THE DEEPER FORCING MOVES INTO EASTERN IOWA WITH THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE. NO SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE STATE
AND IS EVIDENT THE DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE REMAINS PRESENT PER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT DSM. WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS RANGING AROUND
12KFT TO NEAR 13KFT AND THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.50 TO
1.75 INCH RANGE...SO STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS TODAY AS GENERALLY THE 1 TO NEAR 3 INCH PER
HOUR RATES ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE STORM PROGRESSION LOOKS TO BE
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS TODAY PER CORFIDI VECTORS...SO THE HEAVY RAIN
OVER ONE AREA SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED UNLESS BACK-BUILDING OCCURS LIKE
THURSDAY. THE 27.05Z HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...ALBEIT ROUGHLY TWO HOURS TOO FAST...BUT LEANED TOWARD THE
HRRR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR POP/WX TRENDS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF IA WHERE
THERE IS STRONGER FORCING. NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF IA. THE COLD
FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRENGTHENING JET STREAM...OVER 80
KTS, WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION BOTH SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE BODY
OF THE ZONES. DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER THICKNESS...OVER 4 KM AND PWAT
VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS PRETTY HIGH WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE NEAR 5000 J/KG. THOUGH NOT PERFECT, THE
HODOGRAPHS ARE FAVORABLE WITH DECENT SHEAR...BOTH SPEED AND
DIRECTION...IN PLACE.

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ON TAP FROM THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
ON. THE COLDEST AIR WILL MISS IA TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE COOLING
TREND DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL LAST ALL THAT LONG EITHER. DON`T
EXPECT TO SEE MORE THAN TWO OR THREE DAYS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...27/12Z
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST...BUT MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED OVER
ANY TAF SITE AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN COVERAGE...SO LEFT OUT ANY
MENTION OF MVFR/IFR EXCEPT AT FOD LATER TONIGHT WITH NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

WITH HIGH PWATS AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF WEATHER SYSTEM...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS FAIRLY HIGH. RAINFALL OF THE PAST DAY
OR SO HAS MOISTENED SOILS SO THE FFG IS DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL COME SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THE CURRENT PATTERN GIVES AT LEAST SOME RISK TO THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS JUN 14
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS JUN 14
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
HYDROLOGY...MS JUN 14



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

 409 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

WEAK WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA AND WILL LIFT NORTH
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
AFFECT THE AREA. A SIGNIFICANT NEG TILT TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SECOND UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND ALSO
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE MON AND TUE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

WEAK MCV IN SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH 15Z. THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS CLUSTER MOVING NORTHWARD...BUT MAINLY STRATIFORM PRECIP
TRAILS BEHIND.

500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL TRANSITION EAST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXPECTING THE SOUTHWEST
TO DRY OUT PAST 18Z. HAVE THE HIGHER POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AS THE DEEPER FORCING MOVES INTO EASTERN IOWA WITH THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE. NO SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE STATE
AND IS EVIDENT THE DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE REMAINS PRESENT PER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT DSM. WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS RANGING AROUND
12KFT TO NEAR 13KFT AND THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.50 TO
1.75 INCH RANGE...SO STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS TODAY AS GENERALLY THE 1 TO NEAR 3 INCH PER
HOUR RATES ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE STORM PROGRESSION LOOKS TO BE
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS TODAY PER CORFIDI VECTORS...SO THE HEAVY RAIN
OVER ONE AREA SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED UNLESS BACK-BUILDING OCCURS LIKE
THURSDAY. THE 27.05Z HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...ALBEIT ROUGHLY TWO HOURS TOO FAST...BUT LEANED TOWARD THE
HRRR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR POP/WX TRENDS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF IA WHERE
THERE IS STRONGER FORCING. NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF IA. THE COLD
FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH THE STGRENGTHENING JET STREAM...OVER 80
KTS, WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION BOTH SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE BODY
OF THE ZONES. DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER THICKNESS...OVER 4 KM AND PWAT
VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS PRETTY HIGH WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE NEAR 5000 J/KG. THOUGH NOT PERFECT, THE
HODOGRAPHS ARE FAVORABLE WITH DECENT SHEAR...BOTH SPEED AND
DIRECTION...IN PLACE.

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ON TAP FROM THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
ON. THE COLDEST AIR WILL MISS IA TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE COOLING
TREND DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL LAST ALL THAT LONG EITHER. DON`T
EXPECT TO SEE MORE THAN TWO OR THREE DAYS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...27/06Z
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING SINCE 00Z ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF IA ALTHOUGH LOCALLY DEGRADED NEAR HEAVIER
RAINFALL. CONVECTION HAS SHOWN LITTLE PREDICTABILITY OUTSIDE OF
SHORT TERM TRENDS HOWEVER SO HAVE ONLY ACCOUNTED FOR PRECIP
IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST TO VARIED DEGREES DEPENDING ON
CONFIDENCE. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD INTO
FRI EVENING...BUT WILL ADDRESS THAT ONCE CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
MAY ALSO SEE MVFR FOG DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
NEAR AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN APPRECIABLE RAIN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

WITH HIGH PWATS AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF WEATHER SYSTEM...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS FAIRLY HIGH. RAINFALL OF THE PAST DAY
OR SO HAS MOISTENED SOILS SO THE FFG IS DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL COME SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THE CURRENT PATTERN GIVES AT LEAST SOME RISK TO THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS JUN 14
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS JUN 14
AVIATION...SMALL
HYDROLOGY...MS JUN 14




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

 958 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

SMALL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. COMPLEX IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP A BIT MORE
FORWARD STEAM...LIKELY DUE TO UPPER TROUGH AXIS ADVANCING EAST OF
THE AREA...SO ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO COME TO AN END
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...NAM...RUC AND HRRR ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW A DECENT
ELEVATED CONVECTION SIGNAL LATER TONIGHT/TOWARD DAWN AND THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF I-135...DUE TO INCREASED
850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SUBTLE VORT LOBE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. RESERVOIR OF AMPLE INSTABILITY AND
CLOUD BEARING SHEAR WILL PROMOTE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS.

ADK

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

A COMPACT MID-UPPER TROF POSSESSING A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT THAT
EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER TO CENTRAL KS IS
UNDERGOING RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS IT SURGES N/NE TOWARD THE NORTH
DAKOTA/MANITOBA BORDER. THIS BEHAVIOR WAS ANTICIPATED AS A HIGH-
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE HAS BEEN SITUATED FROM ONTARIO & QUEBEC TO
THE NORTHEAST U.S. IN THE LOWER DECKS A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED
OVER SOUTH DAKOTA FROM WHICH A TROF EXTENDED S/SW ACROSS NEBRASKA
TO WESTERN KS. EAST OF THE SURFACE TROF HIGH OCTANE FUEL (SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ~70F) REMAINED ENTRENCHED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. IN THIS
EXTREMELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT
20 MILES WIDE WAS PUSHING E~30MPH ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS WHERE GUSTS
HAVE REACHED 45-50MPH. THIS NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO BORDER
~430PM.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

THIS EVENING: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER
EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE CLEARING SKIES
HAVE ENABLED THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY
THREAT WOULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS A FEW 40 TO 50 MPH GUSTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

THIS EVENING: THE ONLY CHANGE TO INHERITED FORECAST WAS TO
CONFINE THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS SE OF TURNPIKE. AS THE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING CYCLONE LIFTS DUE N ACROSS THE NORTH DAKOTA/MANITOBA
BORDER DRIER AIR WILL PUNCH EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN
PLAINS. THIS SHOULD HAVE SOUTHEAST KS FREED FROM ALL THUNDERSTORMS
BY MID-EVENING.

LATE TONIGHT:
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST KS/SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA BORDER AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
CO INDUCES SHARP 850-MB THETA-E ADVECTION NE ACROSS THESE AREAS.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NW OF THE KICT FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY & SUNDAY NIGHT:
THE EXTREMELY INTENSE CYCLONE THAT WILL BE WOUND UP LIKE AN ALARM
CLOCK OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL INJECT A COUPLE OF MID- LEVEL
SHORTWAVES E ACROSS KS. WITH AN EXCEPTIONALLY WARM/MOIST
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTH &
NORTHEAST KS THAT SHOULD SPREAD SE ACROSS EASTERN KS SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A PRONOUNCED SW-NE ORIENTED 850-MB THETA-E AXIS REMAINS
POSITIONED OVER KS. MOST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG & JUST
NE OF KICT COUNTRY WHERE THETA-E ADVECTION IS STRONGEST. A 2ND
CONCERN IS THAT A HOT & HUMID AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES
FROM 100-103 ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT:
THE PRIMARY FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE THAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON & NIGHT. THE INTENSE MID-UPPER CYCLONE OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN MANITOBA SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE E ACROSS THE
ONTARIO BORDER. A PRONOUNCED POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL
SCOOT SE FROM THE DAKOTAS THAT IN TURN WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SE
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL & NORTHEAST KS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST OF
THE FRONT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF
~4000-5000J/KG LIKELY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE 6KM BULK
SHEAR IS ONLY 20-30KTS THE DEEP-LAYER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS QUITE
PRONOUNCED. AS SUCH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY POSSIBLE OVER
EAST-CENTRAL...SOUTHEAST & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL
(~2 INCHES) THE PRIMARY THREAT.

TUE & TUE NIGHT:
WITH THE FRONT SAGGING S ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS GREATLY INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHERN KS WHERE VERY
HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY. HAVE PRESSED HARDER ON THE POP & QPF
THROTTLES ACROSS SOUTHEAST & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED INTO "LIKELY" TERRITORY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH THE
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST KS FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS EVENING IN ZONE OF 850-700MB WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION...WITH THESE CHANCES DIMINISHING BY MID/LATE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES EAST OF THE REGION. LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...DIURNAL COOLING IN CONCERT WITH MOIST LOW-
LEVELS MAY RESULT IN LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS ACROSS
THE REGION. FURTHERMORE...INCREASING 700-600MB WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION MAY RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY MORNING GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF I-135. WILL PERUSE DATA
FURTHER...BUT MAY NEED TO INSERT VCSH FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-RSL AT 06Z
ISSUANCE.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  93  74  96 /  20  10  20  30
HUTCHINSON      69  93  74  97 /  10  10  20  30
NEWTON          69  91  73  95 /  10  10  20  40
ELDORADO        69  91  73  94 /  20  10  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  93  73  94 /  30  10  20  30
RUSSELL         70  94  75  93 /  10  20  20  20
GREAT BEND      70  95  75  95 /  10  10  20  20
SALINA          70  94  75  96 /  10  20  20  30
MCPHERSON       69  93  74  96 /  10  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     69  91  74  93 /  70  10  20  30
CHANUTE         67  91  73  93 /  60  10  20  40
IOLA            69  91  73  92 /  30  10  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    68  91  74  93 /  60  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 1241 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

07Z water vapor imagery and profiler data shows a well defined MCV
over the MO river. Meanwhile a linear MCS is progressing east
through southern NEB. A longer wavelength upper trough could be seen
in water vapor from the four corners northwest into ID. Surface
observations show low pressure in the lee of the Rockies with higher
MSLP pressure over the MS river valley. A moist airmass remains over
the forecast area with dewpoint temps in the lower 70s.

The forecast for this morning will be a battle between the MCS to
the west and warming mid level temps. Regional radar imagery has
shown newer development to the south of the convection has had a
difficult time intensifying and the HRRR/RAP have been gradually
backing off on bringing the storms very far into north central KS.
Think that subsidence just to the west of the MCV over the MO river
may also play a roll in how far convection moves east. In short the
latest RAP forecast soundings indicate that by 12Z 700 MB temps will
warm to around 12C capping a surface parcel and what little elevated
instability there is gradually diminishing. Will carry a chance for
precip across the northern and northwest counties this morning, but
the overall forcing does not look strong enough for storms to move
across the whole area. At this time the afternoon hours look to be
mostly dry as models show little if any forcing. Of course the one
potential wrench in the works would be any MCV generated by the
storms in southwestern NEB. Will have to keep an eye on this. Think
south winds will become breezy today as the pressure gradient
increases. Highs today will be dependent on how deep the boundary
layer mixes. Think the NAM forecast soundings may be a little to
conservative in mixing the boundary layer and have continued with
highs in the mid to upper 80s.

For tonight, precip chances are anticipated to increase through the
night as the longer wavelength trough moves east into KS and NEB. It
appears as though storms would likely initiate along the foothills
of the Rockies and then move east again. With this in mind have the
higher POPs spreading west to east mainly during the overnight
hours. There is the potential for storms to be little more organized
as deep layer shear increases with the stronger upper level winds
associated with the trough overspread the area. 0-6KM shear
increases to around 40KTS. With MUCAPE possibly as high as 2000
J/kg, will be to watch out for some strong winds and hail. Lows
could be a little tricky if rain does move in. For now have trended
lows down a degree or so across north central KS where precip is
most likely . Otherwise have kept the forecast lows generally around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

By Saturday morning, the negatively-tilted trough axis is progged
to be over central KS, expected to slowly lift northeast through
the afternoon and evening. Operational guidance is in good
agreement on an MCS shifting eastward into northeast KS early Saturday
morning with high confidence and precipitation chances inserted
for this period. Based on a weakening trend of instability as well
as warming h7 temps near 12Z, current thinking is that the complex
will track southeast and weaken during the mid morning hours.
Storms in the morning period may be capable of gusty winds and
small hail. What is more uncertain is how quickly, if at all, the
atmosphere can recover for severe convection in the afternoon.
There is some indication of clearing across north central areas in
the afternoon, allowing the boundary layer to quickly destabilize
with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/KG. A more favorable wind profile
appears by late afternoon with 0-6 KM shear profiles near 35 kts.
As storms fire ahead of dryline over central KS by late afternoon,
north central areas would see the best chance for severe storms.
Large hail and damaging winds would be the main hazards. Should
expect the thunderstorms to cluster and push eastward through the evening.

Activity clears the CWA Sunday morning, setting up for a very humid
and warm afternoon. Warm and moist air pooling northward will raise
high temperatures to the low 90s. Heat indices may reach the low
100s during the late afternoon. The departing upper trough to the
north will usher a cold front across Nebraska, and possibly northern
portions of the CWA, dependent on model of choice. Increasing wind
shear profiles with instability approaching 4500 J/KG would highly
suggest any storm able to develop near the Nebraska border likely to
be severe by late afternoon and early evening. Storm chances
increase overnight as a line of convection is shunted south and east
over northern and far eastern portions of KS.

On Monday afternoon, 00Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF vary somewhat on
placement of the cold front however do agree on the frontal boundary
bisecting the CWA by late afternoon. Decent convergence along the
boundary will result in organized convection, some severe, as high
surface instability peaks over 4000 J/KG and 0-6 KM shear is near 35
kts.

From Tuesday onward, northwest flow ensues as ridging slowly pushes
over the Inter-mountain West. The frontal boundary is expected to
stall over central or southern KS as weak embedded shortwave troughs
pass through the region. Off and on chances for storms are expected
with perhaps a more organized system bringing more widespread activity
late Wednesday into Thursday.

After highs in the low 90s and lows in the lower 70s through Monday,
the cool front will only lower readings slightly to the upper 80s
for highs and upper 60s for lows through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

The MVFR stratus across the terminals at 17Z should gradually become
VFR stratus and stratocu through the early to mid afternoon hours.
VFR conditions will hold through he evening hours. Thunderstorms
will be on the increase late Tonight and spread across all the
terminals after 12Z. The stronger thunderstorms may bring brief
MVFR and possible IFR conditions to the terminals.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Gargan







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 1226 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014

...Updated for Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

Later afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected. The best
chance for storms will be near the I70 corridor where capping is
weaker and there is better moisture convergence.
Thermodynamically, the setup is impressive with 3500 J/kg of
SBCAPE, 8.5 C/KM lapse rates, and decent boundary layer dewpoints.
A few problems with today`s setup though. All the models show
backing upper level winds and only about 35 kt of 0-EL shear. This
suggests that storm mode tonight will likely be on the HP side.
PWATs are forecast to be in the 1.5" range, which is well above
normal. This also suggests storms with high precipitation
efficiency. Feel the most discrete storms will be up in GLD`s area,
where mean flow and boundary layer winds are more orthogonal.
There could be an isolated tornado up north, as the HRRR is
indicating some updraft helicity. In addition, low level
directional and speed shear is not that bad. Given the
aforementioned upper level shear, it won`t take long through before
you get cold pools and resultant upscale growth, so that should
cut down on the tornado chances. Precip will exit the area
late tonight. Additional MCS activity is possible tomorrow
afternoon, with better moisture convergence and lift along and
east of Highway 283.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

The main upper jet and storm track shifts north on Sunday then a
northern branch upper trough swings across the Northern and Central
Plains late Monday and Monday night with a chance for thunderstorms.
Unsettled weather continues in back of the upper trough into
Thursday with northwest flow aloft and more chances for showers and
thunderstorms. By Friday and upper level ridge is forecast with dry
weather for a change.

At the surface, a deepening trough of low pressure in the Rockies
will give strong southerly winds of 25 to 35 mph on Sunday, with a
cold front moving across western Kansas late Monday and winds
shifting to the north and gusty. Cooler temps will follow the
front as high pressure builds into the Plains with weaker winds
into mid next week.

Lows will be mild in the 60s and 70s, with highs in the 90s Sunday
and Monday, cooling into the 80s Tuesday into Thursday behind the cold
front, then back into the 90s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

VFR through much of the period. Breezy winds will continue today
at 20-25 kt. Winds will decrease towards 00Z in the 15-20 kt
range. Another concern is tsra/cb`s. Coverage could remain more
on the isolated side due to capping. KHYS stands the best chance
for seeing thunderstorm impacts at the terminal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  67  89  67 /  40  50  20  10
GCK  91  65  89  66 /  60  70  10  10
EHA  94  63  91  63 /  40  50  10   0
LBL  94  66  92  67 /  50  60  10  10
HYS  88  66  87  67 /  70  80  30  10
P28  89  69  88  70 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014

...Update to short term/aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

Later afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected. The best
chance for storms will be near the I70 corridor where capping is
weaker and there is better moisture convergence.
Thermodynamically, the setup is impressive with 3500 J/kg of
SBCAPE, 8.5 C/KM lapse rates, and decent boundary layer dewpoints.
A few problems with today`s setup though. All the models show
backing upper level winds and only about 35 kt of 0-EL shear. This
suggests that storm mode tonight will likely be on the HP side.
PWATs are forecast to be in the 1.5" range, which is well above
normal. This also suggests storms with high precipitation
efficiency. Feel the most discrete storms will be up in GLD`s area,
where mean flow and boundary layer winds are more orthogonal.
There could be an isolated tornado up north, as the HRRR is
indicating some updraft helicity. In addition, low level
directional and speed shear is not that bad. Given the
aforementioned upper level shear, it won`t take long through before
you get cold pools and resultant upscale growth, so that should
cut down on the tornado chances. Precip will exit the area
late tonight. Additional MCS activity is possible tomorrow
afternoon, with better moisture convergence and lift along and
east of Highway 283.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

By Saturday morning, a fairly strong negatively tilted shortwave
trough will be located from Montana into the central High Plains.
This trough will lift into the Midwestern states by Saturday night.
There could be some lingering showers and thunderstorms over central
and south central Kansas Saturday morning as an expected MCS that
develops tonight will be exiting the region. Will continue to carry
some early morning chance pops from Hays through Larned and Medicine
Lodge but these should be winding down during the morning. As the
wave moves out, a frontal boundary will push east into central
Kansas during the day. If this front is able to push east of central
Kansas by the afternoon, any storms that develop during the peak
heating hours may be east of my area. The models suggest that the
front could linger into south central Kansas during the afternoon so
will continue some chance pops in that area until early evening.

Sunday through Sunday night should be quiet as the shortwave
continues to lift out and the stronger westerly flow aloft shifts
north somewhat. Another shortwave trough will move east through the
northern Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. This pushes another
cold front south across western Kansas early Monday which stalls out
from southeast Colorado into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles into
southeast Kansas Monday night.

The models continue to show an upper level ridge building over the
western states by Tuesday while an upper level low pressure system
tracks slowly east and northeast into eastern Canada. It appears
that the central High Plains will come under a upper level northwest
flow pattern with the frontal boundary at the surface remaining
quasi stationary just to our south. With this pattern providing low
level moist upslope flow from Kansas into the eastern slopes of the
Rockies, we could see an increase in rain and thunderstorm chances
as afternoon convection off the Front Range gets organized into
evening and night time MCS complexes.

Later in the week, the upper ridge shifts east out over the northern
and central Plains which should bring warmer temperatures to the
Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

VFR through much of the period. Breezy winds will continue today
at 20-25 kt. Winds will decrease towards 00Z in the 15-20 kt
range. Another concern is tsra/cb`s. Coverage could remain more
on the isolated side due to capping. KHYS stands the best chance
for seeing thunderstorm impacts at the terminal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  67  89  67 /  40  50  20  10
GCK  91  65  89  66 /  60  70  10  10
EHA  94  63  91  66 /  40  50  10  10
LBL  94  66  92  67 /  50  60  10  10
HYS  88  66  87  67 /  70  80  30  10
P28  89  69  88  70 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Sugden






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 627 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

07Z water vapor imagery and profiler data shows a well defined MCV
over the MO river. Meanwhile a linear MCS is progressing east
through southern NEB. A longer wavelength upper trough could be seen
in water vapor from the four corners northwest into ID. Surface
observations show low pressure in the lee of the Rockies with higher
MSLP pressure over the MS river valley. A moist airmass remains over
the forecast area with dewpoint temps in the lower 70s.

The forecast for this morning will be a battle between the MCS to
the west and warming mid level temps. Regional radar imagery has
shown newer development to the south of the convection has had a
difficult time intensifying and the HRRR/RAP have been gradually
backing off on bringing the storms very far into north central KS.
Think that subsidence just to the west of the MCV over the MO river
may also play a roll in how far convection moves east. In short the
latest RAP forecast soundings indicate that by 12Z 700 MB temps will
warm to around 12C capping a surface parcel and what little elevated
instability there is gradually diminishing. Will carry a chance for
precip across the northern and northwest counties this morning, but
the overall forcing does not look strong enough for storms to move
across the whole area. At this time the afternoon hours look to be
mostly dry as models show little if any forcing. Of course the one
potential wrench in the works would be any MCV generated by the
storms in southwestern NEB. Will have to keep an eye on this. Think
south winds will become breezy today as the pressure gradient
increases. Highs today will be dependent on how deep the boundary
layer mixes. Think the NAM forecast soundings may be a little to
conservative in mixing the boundary layer and have continued with
highs in the mid to upper 80s.

For tonight, precip chances are anticipated to increase through the
night as the longer wavelength trough moves east into KS and NEB. It
appears as though storms would likely initiate along the foothills
of the Rockies and then move east again. With this in mind have the
higher POPs spreading west to east mainly during the overnight
hours. There is the potential for storms to be little more organized
as deep layer shear increases with the stronger upper level winds
associated with the trough overspread the area. 0-6KM shear
increases to around 40KTS. With MUCAPE possibly as high as 2000
J/kg, will be to watch out for some strong winds and hail. Lows
could be a little tricky if rain does move in. For now have trended
lows down a degree or so across north central KS where precip is
most likely . Otherwise have kept the forecast lows generally around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

By Saturday morning, the negatively-tilted trough axis is progged
to be over central KS, expected to slowly lift northeast through
the afternoon and evening. Operational guidance is in good
agreement on an MCS shifting eastward into northeast KS early Saturday
morning with high confidence and precipitation chances inserted
for this period. Based on a weakening trend of instability as well
as warming h7 temps near 12Z, current thinking is that the complex
will track southeast and weaken during the mid morning hours.
Storms in the morning period may be capable of gusty winds and
small hail. What is more uncertain is how quickly, if at all, the
atmosphere can recover for severe convection in the afternoon.
There is some indication of clearing across north central areas in
the afternoon, allowing the boundary layer to quickly destabilize
with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/KG. A more favorable wind profile
appears by late afternoon with 0-6 KM shear profiles near 35 kts.
As storms fire ahead of dryline over central KS by late afternoon,
north central areas would see the best chance for severe storms.
Large hail and damaging winds would be the main hazards. Should
expect the thunderstorms to cluster and push eastward through the evening.

Activity clears the CWA Sunday morning, setting up for a very humid
and warm afternoon. Warm and moist air pooling northward will raise
high temperatures to the low 90s. Heat indices may reach the low
100s during the late afternoon. The departing upper trough to the
north will usher a cold front across Nebraska, and possibly northern
portions of the CWA, dependent on model of choice. Increasing wind
shear profiles with instability approaching 4500 J/KG would highly
suggest any storm able to develop near the Nebraska border likely to
be severe by late afternoon and early evening. Storm chances
increase overnight as a line of convection is shunted south and east
over northern and far eastern portions of KS.

On Monday afternoon, 00Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF vary somewhat on
placement of the cold front however do agree on the frontal boundary
bisecting the CWA by late afternoon. Decent convergence along the
boundary will result in organized convection, some severe, as high
surface instability peaks over 4000 J/KG and 0-6 KM shear is near 35
kts.

From Tuesday onward, northwest flow ensues as ridging slowly pushes
over the Inter-mountain West. The frontal boundary is expected to
stall over central or southern KS as weak embedded shortwave troughs
pass through the region. Off and on chances for storms are expected
with perhaps a more organized system bringing more widespread activity
late Wednesday into Thursday.

After highs in the low 90s and lows in the lower 70s through Monday,
the cool front will only lower readings slightly to the upper 80s
for highs and upper 60s for lows through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

MVFR stratus has formed over south central KS and appears to be
spreading into northeast KS. Both the NAM and RAP keep the low
clouds over the terminals through the mid morning hours.
Confidence in when CIGS will scatter out and become VFR is
marginal and have been a little optimistic with improving CIGS
around 15Z as mixing of the boundary layer is expected to become
stronger. Still think chances of TS in the terminals is to low to
include just yet. If storms continue to develop south around KGBD,
KMHK may have some TS in several hours. Will continue to monitor
trends.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 408 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

An MCS was moving east along the Nebraska-Kansas line near Oberlin
after 2 am CDT. Just enough of a capping inversion was in place as
indicated by the 00 UTC KDDC sounding to prevent deeper convection
farther south through the Trego county and Hays areas as the recent
HRRR runs had indicated. A surface low pressure near Las Animas
contributed to the roughly 8 mb surface pressure gradient and
resultant 15 to 20 knot sustained southeast winds. Temperatures were
in the low 70s with mid 60`s dew points across the majority of the
area.

On the larger scale, the water vapor satellite showed a vorticity
center now over southeast Utah with some evidence of deeper lifting
across Arizona and New Mexico. The 00 UTC objective analysis
indicated the nose of the upper jet moving through Arizona while a
plume of mid level warm air at 16-18 degrees C was centered across
the panhandles, southeast CO and extreme sw Kansas. Boundary layer
moisture  transport was evident as well from the southern Texas high
plains through western Nebraska and layer precipitable water values
were in excess of an inch and a half east of a Dighton to
Meade line.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

The primary focus will be on convective chances, impacts and timing
over the next 24 hours. In the nowcast phase, only light showers and
brief thunderstorm activity seems reasonable at this point north of
highway K96 given the recent radar trends. Once this activity moves
east of Hays, convective activity will not be likely again until the
afternoon at earliest, and probably late in the afternoon when
forcing for ascent comes into play from the approaching wave. By
mid afternoon sufficient destabilization may occur for surface based
storms near the moisture axis and dryline intersection somewhere in
west central Kansas leading to supercell development and initial
hail and tornado threats.  A risk for several supercells then
forming clusters and a cold pool becomes more likely farther east
into central Kansas during the evening hours. Heavy efficient rain
producing storms are expected this evening given the high
precipitable water values and a few areas of flooding may occur.
Heaviest rainfall is likely farther east of the areas through the
highway 83 corridor that have been the wettest most recent weeks.
Additionally due to some of the convective allowing model`s more
progressive convective complex forecasts, we`ve decided to not issue
a flood watch at this time. Pops are tapered off by 12 UTC Saturday
across central Kansas. Overnight lows will not likely fall below the
upper 60s across most of the forecast area.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

By Saturday morning, a fairly strong negatively tilted shortwave
trough will be located from Montana into the central High Plains.
This trough will lift into the Midwestern states by Saturday night.
There could be some lingering showers and thunderstorms over central
and south central Kansas Saturday morning as an expected MCS that
develops tonight will be exiting the region. Will continue to carry
some early morning chance pops from Hays through Larned and Medicine
Lodge but these should be winding down during the morning. As the
wave moves out, a frontal boundary will push east into central
Kansas during the day. If this front is able to push east of central
Kansas by the afternoon, any storms that develop during the peak
heating hours may be east of my area. The models suggest that the
front could linger into south central Kansas during the afternoon so
will continue some chance pops in that area until early evening.

Sunday through Sunday night should be quiet as the shortwave
continues to lift out and the stronger westerly flow aloft shifts
north somewhat. Another shortwave trough will move east through the
northern Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. This pushes another
cold front south across western Kansas early Monday which stalls out
from southeast Colorado into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles into
southeast Kansas Monday night.

The models continue to show an upper level ridge building over the
western states by Tuesday while an upper level low pressure system
tracks slowly east and northeast into eastern Canada. It appears
that the central High Plains will come under a upper level northwest
flow pattern with the frontal boundary at the surface remaining
quasi stationary just to our south. With this pattern providing low
level moist upslope flow from Kansas into the eastern slopes of the
Rockies, we could see an increase in rain and thunderstorm chances
as afternoon convection off the Front Range gets organized into
evening and night time MCS complexes.

Later in the week, the upper ridge shifts east out over the northern
and central Plains which should bring warmer temperatures to the
Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 118 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

An MCS will continue eastward into north central Kansas through the
overnight hours, with some potential for southward development
through KHYS as recent HRRR model runs have indicated. Current radar
trends are indicating this trend as radar echoes are developing
south of Colby through Scott City. Southerly surface winds will
become more windy by late morning before severe convection develops
in the late afternoon along a warm front across west central Kansas
with good chances for terminal impacts through the evening hours
Friday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  90  69  86  67 /  30  80  20  10
GCK  94  66  87  66 /  50  70  10  10
EHA  96  64  90  66 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  98  66  88  67 /  20  40  10  10
HYS  89  70  86  67 /  60  80  30  10
P28  89  70  85  70 /  40  70  40  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Russell
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Russell







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 351 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

07Z water vapor imagery and profiler data shows a well defined MCV
over the MO river. Meanwhile a linear MCS is progressing east
through southern NEB. A longer wavelength upper trough could be seen
in water vapor from the four corners northwest into ID. Surface
observations show low pressure in the lee of the Rockies with higher
MSLP pressure over the MS river valley. A moist airmass remains over
the forecast area with dewpoint temps in the lower 70s.

The forecast for this morning will be a battle between the MCS to
the west and warming mid level temps. Regional radar imagery has
shown newer development to the south of the convection has had a
difficult time intensifying and the HRRR/RAP have been gradually
backing off on bringing the storms very far into north central KS.
Think that subsidence just to the west of the MCV over the MO river
may also play a roll in how far convection moves east. In short the
latest RAP forecast soundings indicate that by 12Z 700 MB temps will
warm to around 12C capping a surface parcel and what little elevated
instability there is gradually diminishing. Will carry a chance for
precip across the northern and northwest counties this morning, but
the overall forcing does not look strong enough for storms to move
across the whole area. At this time the afternoon hours look to be
mostly dry as models show little if any forcing. Of course the one
potential wrench in the works would be any MCV generated by the
storms in southwestern NEB. Will have to keep an eye on this. Think
south winds will become breezy today as the pressure gradient
increases. Highs today will be dependent on how deep the boundary
layer mixes. Think the NAM forecast soundings may be a little to
conservative in mixing the boundary layer and have continued with
highs in the mid to upper 80s.

For tonight, precip chances are anticipated to increase through the
night as the longer wavelength trough moves east into KS and NEB. It
appears as though storms would likely initiate along the foothills
of the Rockies and then move east again. With this in mind have the
higher POPs spreading west to east mainly during the overnight
hours. There is the potential for storms to be little more organized
as deep layer shear increases with the stronger upper level winds
associated with the trough overspread the area. 0-6KM shear
increases to around 40KTS. With MUCAPE possibly as high as 2000
J/kg, will be to watch out for some strong winds and hail. Lows
could be a little tricky if rain does move in. For now have trended
lows down a degree or so across north central KS where precip is
most likely . Otherwise have kept the forecast lows generally around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

By Saturday morning, the negatively-tilted trough axis is progged
to be over central KS, expected to slowly lift northeast through
the afternoon and evening. Operational guidance is in good
agreement on an MCS shifting eastward into northeast KS early Saturday
morning with high confidence and precipitation chances inserted
for this period. Based on a weakening trend of instability as well
as warming h7 temps near 12Z, current thinking is that the complex
will track southeast and weaken during the mid morning hours.
Storms in the morning period may be capable of gusty winds and
small hail. What is more uncertain is how quickly, if at all, the
atmosphere can recover for severe convection in the afternoon.
There is some indication of clearing across north central areas in
the afternoon, allowing the boundary layer to quickly destabilize
with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/KG. A more favorable wind profile
appears by late afternoon with 0-6 KM shear profiles near 35 kts.
As storms fire ahead of dryline over central KS by late afternoon,
north central areas would see the best chance for severe storms.
Large hail and damaging winds would be the main hazards. Should
expect the thunderstorms to cluster and push eastward through the evening.

Activity clears the CWA Sunday morning, setting up for a very humid
and warm afternoon. Warm and moist air pooling northward will raise
high temperatures to the low 90s. Heat indices may reach the low
100s during the late afternoon. The departing upper trough to the
north will usher a cold front across Nebraska, and possibly northern
portions of the CWA, dependent on model of choice. Increasing wind
shear profiles with instability approaching 4500 J/KG would highly
suggest any storm able to develop near the Nebraska border likely to
be severe by late afternoon and early evening. Storm chances
increase overnight as a line of convection is shunted south and east
over northern and far eastern portions of KS.

On Monday afternoon, 00Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF vary somewhat on
placement of the cold front however do agree on the frontal boundary
bisecting the CWA by late afternoon. Decent convergence along the
boundary will result in organized convection, some severe, as high
surface instability peaks over 4000 J/KG and 0-6 KM shear is near 35
kts.

From Tuesday onward, northwest flow ensues as ridging slowly pushes
over the Inter-mountain West. The frontal boundary is expected to
stall over central or southern KS as weak embedded shortwave troughs
pass through the region. Off and on chances for storms are expected
with perhaps a more organized system bringing more widespread activity
late Wednesday into Thursday.

After highs in the low 90s and lows in the lower 70s through Monday,
the cool front will only lower readings slightly to the upper 80s
for highs and upper 60s for lows through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 351 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

Have amended the forecast to remove VCTS through much of the
period and back off on MVFR CIGS. Latest radar trends show no
southward development of convection with the MCS moving east along
the KS/NEB state line. Additionally the RAP and HRRR have trended
in keeping storms mainly along the state line. Because of this
confidence in storms near the terminals is pretty marginal. Also
do not have a great deal of confidence in MVFR CIGS forming. The
latest RAP would have CIGS across central KS now, but satellite
shows the only low clouds down across central OK. Kept a tempo for
some low CIGS but keep them above 2 KFT. If low clouds don`t form
soon, we may only see a CU field with daytime heating.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 315 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

07Z water vapor imagery and profiler data shows a well defined MCV
over the MO river. Meanwhile a linear MCS is progressing east
through southern NEB. A longer wavelength upper trough could be seen
in water vapor from the four corners northwest into ID. Surface
observations show low pressure in the lee of the Rockies with higher
MSLP pressure over the MS river valley. A moist airmass remains over
the forecast area with dewpoint temps in the lower 70s.

The forecast for this morning will be a battle between the MCS to
the west and warming mid level temps. Regional radar imagery has
shown newer development to the south of the convection has had a
difficult time intensifying and the HRRR/RAP have been gradually
backing off on bringing the storms very far into north central KS.
Think that subsidence just to the west of the MCV over the MO river
may also play a roll in how far convection moves east. In short the
latest RAP forecast soundings indicate that by 12Z 700 MB temps will
warm to around 12C capping a surface parcel and what little elevated
instability there is gradually diminishing. Will carry a chance for
precip across the northern and northwest counties this morning, but
the overall forcing does not look strong enough for storms to move
across the whole area. At this time the afternoon hours look to be
mostly dry as models show little if any forcing. Of course the one
potential wrench in the works would be any MCV generated by the
storms in southwestern NEB. Will have to keep an eye on this. Think
south winds will become breezy today as the pressure gradient
increases. Highs today will be dependent on how deep the boundary
layer mixes. Think the NAM forecast soundings may be a little to
conservative in mixing the boundary layer and have continued with
highs in the mid to upper 80s.

For tonight, precip chances are anticipated to increase through the
night as the longer wavelength trough moves east into KS and NEB. It
appears as though storms would likely initiate along the foothills
of the Rockies and then move east again. With this in mind have the
higher POPs spreading west to east mainly during the overnight
hours. There is the potential for storms to be little more organized
as deep layer shear increases with the stronger upper level winds
associated with the trough overspread the area. 0-6KM shear
increases to around 40KTS. With MUCAPE possibly as high as 2000
J/kg, will be to watch out for some strong winds and hail. Lows
could be a little tricky if rain does move in. For now have trended
lows down a degree or so across north central KS where precip is
most likely . Otherwise have kept the forecast lows generally around
70.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

By Saturday morning, the negatively-tilted trough axis is progged
to be over central KS, expected to slowly lift northeast through
the afternoon and evening. Operational guidance is in good
agreement on an MCS shifting eastward into northeast KS early Saturday
morning with high confidence and precipitation chances inserted
for this period. Based on a weakening trend of instability as well
as warming h7 temps near 12Z, current thinking is that the complex
will track southeast and weaken during the mid morning hours.
Storms in the morning period may be capable of gusty winds and
small hail. What is more uncertain is how quickly, if at all, the
atmosphere can recover for severe convection in the afternoon.
There is some indication of clearing across north central areas in
the afternoon, allowing the boundary layer to quickly destabilize
with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/KG. A more favorable wind profile
appears by late afternoon with 0-6 KM shear profiles near 35 kts.
As storms fire ahead of dryline over central KS by late afternoon,
north central areas would see the best chance for severe storms.
Large hail and damaging winds would be the main hazards. Should
expect the thunderstorms to cluster and push eastward through the evening.

Activity clears the CWA Sunday morning, setting up for a very humid
and warm afternoon. Warm and moist air pooling northward will raise
high temperatures to the low 90s. Heat indices may reach the low
100s during the late afternoon. The departing upper trough to the
north will usher a cold front across Nebraska, and possibly northern
portions of the CWA, dependent on model of choice. Increasing wind
shear profiles with instability approaching 4500 J/KG would highly
suggest any storm able to develop near the Nebraska border likely to
be severe by late afternoon and early evening. Storm chances
increase overnight as a line of convection is shunted south and east
over northern and far eastern portions of KS.

On Monday afternoon, 00Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF vary somewhat on
placement of the cold front however do agree on the frontal boundary
bisecting the CWA by late afternoon. Decent convergence along the
boundary will result in organized convection, some severe, as high
surface instability peaks over 4000 J/KG and 0-6 KM shear is near 35
kts.

From Tuesday onward, northwest flow ensues as ridging slowly pushes
over the Inter-mountain West. The frontal boundary is expected to
stall over central or southern KS as weak embedded shortwave troughs
pass through the region. Off and on chances for storms are expected
with perhaps a more organized system bringing more widespread activity
late Wednesday into Thursday.

After highs in the low 90s and lows in the lower 70s through Monday,
the cool front will only lower readings slightly to the upper 80s
for highs and upper 60s for lows through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

Showers slowly moving eastward and will carry only vsch at this
time for TOP/FOE. Guidance still suggesting cloud deck to develop
toward sunrise. Have added vcts as higher resolution models
suggest activity out over high plains moves into the forecast are
in the midmorning hours.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...67






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

 122 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014

...aviation update...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

For tonight, surface dewpoints have increased in back of last nights
MCS across western Kansas. Current models are off by about 10
degrees too low with dewpoints with current analysis showing
moderate to high instability of 3000 to 4000 J/kg CAPEs. Have raised
thunderstorm chances for late this afternoon into tonight with the
greater instability and weaker mid level warm capping. Water vapor
imagery currently showing a disturbance moving into the Colorado
Rockies and some storms developing near a dryline in Baca County
Colorado. On the negative side, the forecast jet level winds are
weak around 30 kts with weak mid level winds around 20 kts. So if
any thunderstorms develop they will be slowly moving and briefly
supercells before gusting out. Have upped chances to 40 percent with
some severe up to golf ball hail, damaging winds, and very heavy
rainfall. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.

For Friday, a strong upper level shortwave trough moves into western
Kansas in the afternoon with a dryline moving across far western
Kansas. Good moisture along with strong low to mid level directional
shear will be available ahead of this upper trough. The only
negative is the upper level winds of only 30 to 40 knots. Also the
models show a warm front near Dodge City with some backing of the
low level wind fields which will lead to a stronger shear profile
for rotating supercells and isolated tornadoes. Current thoughts are
the atmosphere looks capped with some mid level warming, however as
the upper trough and cold pool moves into far western Kansas by mid
afternoon, that some thunderstorms will break the cap and rapidly
become severe as they move off the dryline. A merger into a squall
line is probable later in the afternoon to evening with lots of
large hail reports, some tornadoes, and damaging winds. Could be a
moderate risk day ahead for Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

Medium range models indicate an upper level trough of low pressure
shifting east out of the Western High Plains into the Central Plains
Saturday increasing the likelihood for thunderstorms from the
Dakotas southward into portions of Kansas. As this system moves
across the region, an associated upper level jet is projected to
dip southeast across the Central Rockies, nosing into the panhandles
of Oklahoma and Texas placing a left exit region across western
Kansas. Meanwhile, ample low level moisture will continue to pool
ahead of a surface trough edging eastward across western Kansas.
Favorable dynamic support aloft combined with increased convergence
near the surface will set the stage for possible thunderstorms
across central and more eastern portions of southwest Kansas
potentially through early Saturday afternoon. Another round of
storms may be possible across south central Kansas Saturday evening
as the aforementioned surface trough is expected to stall out
somewhere generally across the area before washing out. Drier
conditions are then expected through Monday as the flow aloft
weakens while becoming more zonal.

The next significant chance for precip will return Monday night into
Tuesday as a closed off upper level low develops and strengthens
while pushing eastward along the U.S. border in southern Canada. As
the closed off low deepens, an attendant cold front will push
southeast into and across Western Kansas Monday before stalling
out somewhere in the vicinity of the Oklahoma border. Thunderstorms
will be possible across central and portions of southwest Kansas
Monday night, with the best chances in vicinity of the boundary as a
strong upper level jet core dives southeast into the Central Plains.
The intensity of any storm development will be dependent on how far
south the upper level jet reaches before lifting northeast.

Temperatures are expected to be near normal Saturday even as a
surface trough moves through western Kansas turning the low level
flow more northerly. Slightly cooler air will filter southward into
the region limiting highs to the upper 80s(F) to near 90F Saturday
afternoon. Widespread 90s(F) are likely Sunday as lee side troughing
strengthens across eastern Colorado helping to draw warmer air back
north into the region. Slightly cooler temperatures are likely once
again Monday as a weak cold front pushes through western Kansas by
early to mid afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 118 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

An MCS will continue eastward into north central Kansas through the
overnight hours, with some potential for southward development
through KHYS as recent HRRR model runs have indicated. Current radar
trends are indicating this trend as radar echoes are developing
south of Colby through Scott City. Southerly surface winds will
become more windy by late morning before severe convection develops
in the late afternoon along a warm front across west central Kansas
with good chances for terminal impacts through the evening hours
Friday.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  90  67  90  67 /  20  40  40  20
GCK  94  66  91  66 /  50  50  30  20
EHA  97  64  93  66 /  30  30  10  20
LBL  95  67  92  67 /  40  40  30  20
HYS  89  69  90  67 /  40  60  50  20
P28  90  71  89  70 /  20  30  50  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Russell







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 108 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

UPDATED AGAIN TO REFINE POPS TO THE AREAS SEEING BETTER CU
DEVELOPMENT. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS NOW POPPING UP IN THE VICINITY OF
DANVILLE. THIS IS LOCATED IN A BETTER AREA OF ENHANCED CU. BEST
THREAT BASED ON SATELLITE FOR STORMS STILL APPEAR TO BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OVER TOWARDS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE LATEST
HRRR/RAP...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE THUNDER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT AS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DIMINISH IN ACTIVITY BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. KEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES NORTHWARD AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER POPPING UP AT ANY TIME.
ALSO...GIVEN PW`S JUST UNDER THE 99TH PERCENTILE ON SATURDAY AND WEAK
STEERING FLOW...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE HWO. WILL ALSO BE PLANNING TO INCREASE POPS WITH THE
NEXT UPDATE AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING IN VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN
CHANCES TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS APPEAR ON TRACK
SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS PLANNED FOR RIGHT NOW. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN
SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1042 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP INDICATE LESS COVERAGE FOR
SHOWERS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME THIS
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...WHERE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS TENNESSEE
AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THESE
AREAS BY 23Z. COULD SEE A SPORADIC SHOWER PRIOR TO THIS TIME...BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE EVENING AND
POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
NORTHWARD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE THE SKY COVER AND FOG
CLEARANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS AND WX THROUGH
11 AM AND TWEAKED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH POCKETS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOUND FURTHER EAST...BUT
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN ACTUAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE ARE
HINTS OF A WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE AREA. DESPITE
THIS...WINDS ARE GENERALLY CALM THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FAR FROM 70
DEGREES. WITH LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP IN A FEW PLACES... BUT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT IT
FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE...SO FAR. ON RADAR...A FEW VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE FOUND ALONG THE BORDER WITH TENNESSEE AND THESE
HAVE BEEN A FAIRLY STEADY STATE FEATURE THROUGH THIS MIDDLE PART OF
THE NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A
RATHER WEAK RIDGE HOLDING ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A LARGE
AND DEEP TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE NATION.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A FEW WAVES OF ENERGY WILL RIDE NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH KENTUCKY WITH THE RIDGE OFFERING LITTLE RESISTANCE. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE LEANED TOWARD A GENERAL BLEND BUT ALSO SPECIFICS
FROM THE NAM12 AND HRRR DUE TO THEIR HIGHER RESOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COUPLE IN A LONG STRING OF DAYS
RECENTLY THAT HAVE BEEN WARM WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL PEAK LATE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
REMAIN A THREAT EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND PWS WILL BE RATHER HIGH WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS SO THAT
HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR ANY OF THE MORE ORGANIZED CELLS.
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE STORMS
FROM BECOMING TOO STRONG. SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT...TONIGHT/S WEATHER
WILL BE MUGGY AND MILD WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE. DO
EXPECT A BIT BETTER COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON SATURDAY AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN THE BCCONSALL THEREAFTER. DID
MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RIDGE AND VALLEY SPOTS TONIGHT. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS TODAY...SIMILAR
TONIGHT...AND THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NUMBERS ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

WITH A WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH...AND A GOOD FLOW OF WARM MOIST
AND UNSTABLE GULF AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION TO START OUT THE
PERIOD ON SATURDAY EVENING...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE MODELS DO SHOW A REGRESSION
IN THE ACTIVITY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEY ARE ALL STILL
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. THE PROBLEM IS
HOWEVER...THAT NONE OF THE MODELS AGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE
ACROSS EASTERN KY...OR THE LOCATION FOR THIS CONVECTION.
BUT...WITH AN INCOMING TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT
PROVIDING ENHANCED LIFT...AND CONTINUED MOIST WARM AIR FLOWING INTO
THE REGION EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME DECLINE IN THE
ACTIVITY...BUT NOT A COMPLETE ENDING.

THINGS WILL KICK BACK UP SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO
MANITOBA AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE
SHORTWAVE...STILL LINGERING FROM TEXAS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH ANOTHER DAY
WITH WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIR PULLING IN FROM THE GULF...WILL CREATE
A LINE OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY AS WELL. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY
PULL OUT OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BREAK IN PRECIP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS THE SURFACE FRONT FINALLY MAKES IT INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES...IT WILL CHANGE ITS POSITION
TO SIT RIGHT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...RUNNING FROM WEST TO EAST. IT
WILL THEN LOSE STRENGTH AND SLOW DOWN...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO
A MORE SW DIRECTION BY TUESDAY EVENING...CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF. THEN...AS THE
FRONT PARKS ITSELF NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NRLY. THIS WILL FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES. THAT BEING SAID...FRONTOGENESIS WILL STILL BE
LIKELY...AND MODELS ARE STILL PINPOINTING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE INCONSISTENCY
BETWEEN MODELS AT THIS POINT IS QUITE APPARENT...SO WILL STICK CLOSE
TO ALLBLEND SOLUTION.

ONCE THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO
FINALLY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL ALSO TAKE QUITE
THE PLUMMET...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR AT MOST SITES FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM COULD THREATEN KSME OR KLOZ LATE
IN THE DAY...BUT ODDS ARE THEY WILL BE MISSED TO TO THE WIDELY
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY. ANOTHER NIGHT OF VALLEY FOG IS
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS COULD HINDER A MORE ROBUST
NIGHT OF FOG. THUS...PLAN TO LEAVE THE FOG OUT OF THE TAF SITES FOR
NOW GIVEN THE BETTER CLOUD COVER. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A
MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
MORNING TOMORROW CONTINUING IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD PROVIDE SOME
MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 1042 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP INDICATE LESS COVERAGE FOR
SHOWERS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME THIS
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...WHERE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS TENNESSEE
AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THESE
AREAS BY 23Z. COULD SEE A SPORADIC SHOWER PRIOR TO THIS TIME...BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE EVENING AND
POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
NORTHWARD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE THE SKY COVER AND FOG
CLEARANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS AND WX THROUGH
11 AM AND TWEAKED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH POCKETS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOUND FURTHER EAST...BUT
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN ACTUAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE ARE
HINTS OF A WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE AREA. DESPITE
THIS...WINDS ARE GENERALLY CALM THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FAR FROM 70
DEGREES. WITH LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP IN A FEW PLACES... BUT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT IT
FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE...SO FAR. ON RADAR...A FEW VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE FOUND ALONG THE BORDER WITH TENNESSEE AND THESE
HAVE BEEN A FAIRLY STEADY STATE FEATURE THROUGH THIS MIDDLE PART OF
THE NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A
RATHER WEAK RIDGE HOLDING ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A LARGE
AND DEEP TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE NATION.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A FEW WAVES OF ENERGY WILL RIDE NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH KENTUCKY WITH THE RIDGE OFFERING LITTLE RESISTANCE. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE LEANED TOWARD A GENERAL BLEND BUT ALSO SPECIFICS
FROM THE NAM12 AND HRRR DUE TO THEIR HIGHER RESOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COUPLE IN A LONG STRING OF DAYS
RECENTLY THAT HAVE BEEN WARM WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL PEAK LATE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
REMAIN A THREAT EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND PWS WILL BE RATHER HIGH WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS SO THAT
HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR ANY OF THE MORE ORGANIZED CELLS.
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE STORMS
FROM BECOMING TOO STRONG. SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT...TONIGHT/S WEATHER
WILL BE MUGGY AND MILD WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE. DO
EXPECT A BIT BETTER COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON SATURDAY AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN THE BCCONSALL THEREAFTER. DID
MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RIDGE AND VALLEY SPOTS TONIGHT. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS TODAY...SIMILAR
TONIGHT...AND THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NUMBERS ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

WITH A WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH...AND A GOOD FLOW OF WARM MOIST
AND UNSTABLE GULF AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION TO START OUT THE
PERIOD ON SATURDAY EVENING...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE MODELS DO SHOW A REGRESSION
IN THE ACTIVITY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEY ARE ALL STILL
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. THE PROBLEM IS
HOWEVER...THAT NONE OF THE MODELS AGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE
ACROSS EASTERN KY...OR THE LOCATION FOR THIS CONVECTION.
BUT...WITH AN INCOMING TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT
PROVIDING ENHANCED LIFT...AND CONTINUED MOIST WARM AIR FLOWING INTO
THE REGION EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME DECLINE IN THE
ACTIVITY...BUT NOT A COMPLETE ENDING.

THINGS WILL KICK BACK UP SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO
MANITOBA AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE
SHORTWAVE...STILL LINGERING FROM TEXAS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH ANOTHER DAY
WITH WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIR PULLING IN FROM THE GULF...WILL CREATE
A LINE OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY AS WELL. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY
PULL OUT OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BREAK IN PRECIP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS THE SURFACE FRONT FINALLY MAKES IT INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES...IT WILL CHANGE ITS POSITION
TO SIT RIGHT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...RUNNING FROM WEST TO EAST. IT
WILL THEN LOSE STRENGTH AND SLOW DOWN...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO
A MORE SW DIRECTION BY TUESDAY EVENING...CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF. THEN...AS THE
FRONT PARKS ITSELF NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NRLY. THIS WILL FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES. THAT BEING SAID...FRONTOGENESIS WILL STILL BE
LIKELY...AND MODELS ARE STILL PINPOINTING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE INCONSISTENCY
BETWEEN MODELS AT THIS POINT IS QUITE APPARENT...SO WILL STICK CLOSE
TO ALLBLEND SOLUTION.

ONCE THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO
FINALLY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL ALSO TAKE QUITE
THE PLUMMET...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

ONCE THE POCKETS OF FOG BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...
CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR AT MOST SITES FOR THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY MAY BRING ABOUT TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS.
A VCTS REMARK WAS KEPT FOR THIS CONCERN IN ALL THE TAFS...TIMING THE
THREAT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WELL INTO
TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 745 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE THE SKY COVER AND FOG
CLEARANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS AND WX THROUGH
11 AM AND TWEAKED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH POCKETS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOUND FURTHER EAST...BUT
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN ACTUAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE ARE
HINTS OF A WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE AREA. DESPITE
THIS...WINDS ARE GENERALLY CALM THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FAR FROM 70
DEGREES. WITH LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP IN A FEW PLACES... BUT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT IT
FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE...SO FAR. ON RADAR...A FEW VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE FOUND ALONG THE BORDER WITH TENNESSEE AND THESE
HAVE BEEN A FAIRLY STEADY STATE FEATURE THROUGH THIS MIDDLE PART OF
THE NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A
RATHER WEAK RIDGE HOLDING ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A LARGE
AND DEEP TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE NATION.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A FEW WAVES OF ENERGY WILL RIDE NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH KENTUCKY WITH THE RIDGE OFFERING LITTLE RESISTANCE. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE LEANED TOWARD A GENERAL BLEND BUT ALSO SPECIFICS
FROM THE NAM12 AND HRRR DUE TO THEIR HIGHER RESOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COUPLE IN A LONG STRING OF DAYS
RECENTLY THAT HAVE BEEN WARM WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL PEAK LATE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
REMAIN A THREAT EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND PWS WILL BE RATHER HIGH WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS SO THAT
HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR ANY OF THE MORE ORGANIZED CELLS.
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE STORMS
FROM BECOMING TOO STRONG. SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT...TONIGHT/S WEATHER
WILL BE MUGGY AND MILD WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE. DO
EXPECT A BIT BETTER COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON SATURDAY AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN THE BCCONSALL THEREAFTER. DID
MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RIDGE AND VALLEY SPOTS TONIGHT. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS TODAY...SIMILAR
TONIGHT...AND THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NUMBERS ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

WITH A WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH...AND A GOOD FLOW OF WARM MOIST
AND UNSTABLE GULF AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION TO START OUT THE
PERIOD ON SATURDAY EVENING...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE MODELS DO SHOW A REGRESSION
IN THE ACTIVITY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEY ARE ALL STILL
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. THE PROBLEM IS
HOWEVER...THAT NONE OF THE MODELS AGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE
ACROSS EASTERN KY...OR THE LOCATION FOR THIS CONVECTION.
BUT...WITH AN INCOMING TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT
PROVIDING ENHANCED LIFT...AND CONTINUED MOIST WARM AIR FLOWING INTO
THE REGION EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME DECLINE IN THE
ACTIVITY...BUT NOT A COMPLETE ENDING.

THINGS WILL KICK BACK UP SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO
MANITOBA AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE
SHORTWAVE...STILL LINGERING FROM TEXAS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH ANOTHER DAY
WITH WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIR PULLING IN FROM THE GULF...WILL CREATE
A LINE OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY AS WELL. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY
PULL OUT OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BREAK IN PRECIP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS THE SURFACE FRONT FINALLY MAKES IT INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES...IT WILL CHANGE ITS POSITION
TO SIT RIGHT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...RUNNING FROM WEST TO EAST. IT
WILL THEN LOSE STRENGTH AND SLOW DOWN...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO
A MORE SW DIRECTION BY TUESDAY EVENING...CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF. THEN...AS THE
FRONT PARKS ITSELF NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NRLY. THIS WILL FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES. THAT BEING SAID...FRONTOGENESIS WILL STILL BE
LIKELY...AND MODELS ARE STILL PINPOINTING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE INCONSISTENCY
BETWEEN MODELS AT THIS POINT IS QUITE APPARENT...SO WILL STICK CLOSE
TO ALLBLEND SOLUTION.

ONCE THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO
FINALLY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL ALSO TAKE QUITE
THE PLUMMET...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

ONCE THE POCKETS OF FOG BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...
CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR AT MOST SITES FOR THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY MAY BRING ABOUT TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS.
A VCTS REMARK WAS KEPT FOR THIS CONCERN IN ALL THE TAFS...TIMING THE
THREAT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WELL INTO
TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 350 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH POCKETS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOUND FURTHER EAST...BUT
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN ACTUAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY CALM THROUGH THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FAR FROM 70 DEGREES. WITH LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP IN A FEW PLACES...
BUT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT IT FROM BECOMING TOO
WIDESPREAD OR DENSE...SO FAR. ON RADAR...A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
FOUND ALONG THE BORDER WITH TENNESSEE AND THESE HAVE BEEN A FAIRLY
STEADY STATE FEATURE THROUGH THIS MIDDLE PART OF THE NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A
RATHER WEAK RIDGE HOLDING ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A LARGE
AND DEEP TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE NATION.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A FEW WAVES OF ENERGY WILL RIDE NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH KENTUCKY WITH THE RIDGE OFFERING LITTLE RESISTANCE. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE LEANED TOWARD A GENERAL BLEND BUT ALSO SPECIFICS
FROM THE NAM12 AND HRRR DUE TO THEIR HIGHER RESOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COUPLE IN A LONG STRING OF DAYS
RECENTLY THAT HAVE BEEN WARM WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL PEAK LATE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
REMAIN A THREAT EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND PWS WILL BE RATHER HIGH WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS SO THAT
HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR ANY OF THE MORE ORGANIZED CELLS.
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE STORMS
FROM BECOMING TOO STRONG. SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT...TONIGHT/S WEATHER
WILL BE MUGGY AND MILD WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE. DO
EXPECT A BIT BETTER COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THE SHOWER AND STORMS ON
SATURDAY AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN THE BCCONSALL THEREAFTER. DID
MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RIDGE AND VALLEY SPOTS TONIGHT. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS TODAY...SIMILAR
TONIGHT...AND THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NUMBERS ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

WITH A WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH...AND A GOOD FLOW OF WARM MOIST
AND UNSTABLE GULF AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION TO START OUT THE
PERIOD ON SATURDAY EVENING...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE MODELS DO SHOW A REGRESSION
IN THE ACTIVITY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEY ARE ALL STILL
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. THE PROBLEM IS
HOWEVER...THAT NONE OF THE MODELS AGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE
ACROSS EASTERN KY...OR THE LOCATION FOR THIS CONVECTION.
BUT...WITH AN INCOMING TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT
PROVIDING ENHANCED LIFT...AND CONTINUED MOIST WARM AIR FLOWING INTO
THE REGION EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME DECLINE IN THE
ACTIVITY...BUT NOT A COMPLETE ENDING.

THINGS WILL KICK BACK UP SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO
MANITOBA AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE
SHORTWAVE...STILL LINGERING FROM TEXAS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH ANOTHER DAY
WITH WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIR PULLING IN FROM THE GULF...WILL CREATE
A LINE OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY AS WELL. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY
PULL OUT OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BREAK IN PRECIP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS THE SURFACE FRONT FINALLY MAKES IT INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES...IT WILL CHANGE ITS POSITION
TO SIT RIGHT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...RUNNING FROM WEST TO EAST. IT
WILL THEN LOSE STRENGTH AND SLOW DOWN...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO
A MORE SW DIRECTION BY TUESDAY EVENING...CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF. THEN...AS THE
FRONT PARKS ITSELF NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NRLY. THIS WILL FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES. THAT BEING SAID...FRONTOGENESIS WILL STILL BE
LIKELY...AND MODELS ARE STILL PINPOINTING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE INCONSISTENCY
BETWEEN MODELS AT THIS POINT IS QUITE APPARENT...SO WILL STICK CLOSE
TO ALLBLEND SOLUTION.

ONCE THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO
FINALLY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL ALSO TAKE QUITE
THE PLUMMET...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

WHILE CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR AT MOST SITES FOR THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY MAY BRING ABOUT TEMPORARY MVFR
CONDITIONS. HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FOR THIS CONCERN IN ALL THE TAFS
TIMING THE THREAT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ALSO...A COUPLE OF
LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR VIS FROM FOG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

 1014 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CWA IS STARTING OFF THE DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...STRATUS IS FAST
APPROACHING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM THE EAST AND AT THE VERY LEAST
WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTHEAST MARYLAND
/INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE BALTIMORE AREA/ LATE THIS MORNING/MIDDAY.
IT/S UNCERTAIN HOW FAR WEST THIS DECK OF CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT.
WOULD THINK THAT THE STRONG SUN ANGLE WOULD HELP TO BREAK/SCATTER
IT INTO SOME CU/STRATOCU FURTHER WEST. WOULD EXPECT SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT ANYWAY FOR THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVELS WARM AND MODELS
SUGGEST WEAK INSTABILITY.

SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND LOCALLY RUN WRF-ARW ALSO
SUGGEST A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CWA. THIS MAY WIND UP MAINLY BEING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
INTO THE NORTHERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT WHERE MORE SUNSHINE/HEATING
WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. AMOUNTS OF
CAPE ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK AS IS SHEAR SO STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ABLE TO HAVE STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFTS FOR A SEVERE
RISK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE. UPSLOPE RAIN POSSIBLE ON ERN SLOPES
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MIN TEMPS A MAV/MET/SREF BLEND OF LOW TO MID 60S
INLAND...UPR 60S URBAN/NEAR SHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 1ST PART OF THE XTND CAN BEST BE CATERGORIZED AS "TYPICAL
SUMMER FCSTG." HIGH PRES WL BE MOVG OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST SAT.
FOR THE MID ATLC THIS ISN`T A BAD SET UP - IT SHOULD BE MORE
COMFORTABLE THAN IF THE HIGH WAS FRUTHER S AND  TAKING ON MORE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HIGHS SAT AND SUN SHOULD BE IN THE M80S.
LOWS IN THE 60S. CNVCTN THIS WKND WL LKLY BE LIMITED TO DIURNALLY/
OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN.

PERHAPS BETTER CHCS AT TSTMS ERLY IN THE NEW WK AS THE HIGH
MIGRATES FURTHER E AND THE AIR MASS UNDERGOES MODIFICATION.
DAYTIME TEMPS/DWPTS SHOULD RISE MON-WED. TUE/WED HIGHS SHOULD BE
CLOSING IN ON 90. AGN AFTN/ERLY EVE WOULD BE THE BEST CHC OF TSTMS.

BEING IN THE NATION`S CAPITAL THERE ARE A FEW TIMES WHEN WE TAKE
A KEEN INTEREST IN THE FARTHEST REACHES OF THE XTND FCST:
INAUGURATIONS...THNKSGVG...XMAS/NEW YRS...AND THE 4TH OF JUL. W/
A FEW HUNDRED THOUSAND PEOPLE GETTING TOGETHER ON THE MALL WE GET
VERY INTERESTED IN TEMPERATURES FOR PTNL HEAT INJURIES AND SVR WX
PSBLTIES. FOR THE PAST 2 NGTS THE MDLS HV BEEN IMPLYING A CD FNT WOULD
BE MOVG INTO THE MID ATLC ON THE 3RD OR ERLY ON THE 4TH...AND THE
MDLS RMN CONSISTENT W/ THIS SCENARIO. HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA NEXT
FRI WHICH WOULD LKLY MAKE FOR SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS.
HOPEFULLY THINGS WL TURN OUT THIS WAY. ONE WK TO GO...

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATUS DECK HAS JUST MADE IT TO MTN...AND MAY SPREAD TO BWI FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR /1500-2000 FT/ CIGS THROUGH MIDDAY. FURTHER WEST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS DECK HOLDING TOGETHER FOR THE DCA/IAD
TERMINALS. GIVEN THE HIGH SUN ANGLE IT MAY BREAK UP/SCATTER OUT
AND 3-5FT CU MAY PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON.

WITH E/SE FLOW DEVELOPING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CIGS DEVELOPING/SPREAD FURTHER WEST LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE XTND PART OF THE FCST VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL MAJORITY OF
THE TIME. AFTN/EVE CNVCTN WL BE PSBL SUN-TUE ALTHO NO ORGANIZED
LNS OF CVNCTN FORESEEN.

&&

.MARINE...
NE FLOW BECOMES E AND INCREAES TO 10-15 KT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
COULD BE SOME CHANNELING IN AREAS LIKE THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
WHERE 18 KT GUSTS OCCUR LATE INTO THE EVENING BUT NO SCA FOR NOW
THOUGH GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS LATE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE ELY FLOW/OCEAN FRONT.

OVR THE WKND WINDS ARE XPCTD TO STAY BLO SCA VALUES.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/BAJ/ABW
NEAR TERM...BPP/BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...BPP/BAJ/ABW
MARINE...BPP/BAJ/ABW








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 326 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A DISTURBANCE
BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FINISH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHALLOW PTCHY FOG WL QUICKLY DSPT AFT SUNRISE. OTRW HIGH PRES WL
BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEA TDA...WITH TEMPS ABV SEASONAL
LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE WL CONT TO BLD ACRS THE RGN INTO SAT. PCPN CHCS RTN AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EWD LT SAT AND SUN...AND MOISTURE AND INSTBY
INCR IN SW FLOW. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ADVN ACRS THE RGN SUN NGT
AND MON...MAINTAINING SHWR AND TSTM CHCS. TEMPS SHOULD AVG A FEW
DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS THRU THE PD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WL FEATURE HIGH END CHC TO LIKELY MID WEEK
POPS AS PER EXPECTATIONS OF A CDFNT APPRCH AND PASSAGE. THAT FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MODERATE WARM TEMPS BACK TO...THEN SLIGHTLY BLO THE
AVGS. WPC GUIDANCE CONTS TO REPRESENT THE SCENARIO REASONABLY
WELL...SO ONLY MINOR ALTERATIONS WERE COMPLETED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES WL CONT TO SLIDE TWD CNTRL PA THIS MRNG WHILE
INVOKING WEAK DOWNGLIDE/SBSDNC ACRS UPR OH VALLEY TERMINALS. GIVEN
THE DRY HYDROLAPSE ON THE PIT EVE SOUNDING AND ON RAP SNDINGS...WL
FORECAST JUST SOME LGT FOG...I.E. MVFR VALUES FOR MOST PORTS AS
PER THE LATEST HRRR PROJECTIONS.

ANY FOG THAT DOES DVLP WL BE SHALLOW IN NATURE...HENCE VFR WL
QUICKLY RTN AFTR DAYBREAK AND PERSIST FOR THE RMNDR OF THE TAF PD.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH SCT AFTN TSTMS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 1234 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY. A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY CLR SKIES ARE EXPD OVRNGT WITH INCRG SBSDNC UNDER BLDG HIGH
PRES. SHALLOW PTCHY FOG IS PSBL BUT SBSDNC WL BE A LMTG FACTOR. NR
AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE WL CONT TO BLD ACRS THE RGN THRU SAT. PCPN CHCS RTN AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EWD SAT NGT AND SUN AND...AND MOISTURE AND INSTBY
INCR IN SW FLOW. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO APCH SUN NGT...MAINTAINING
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS. TEMPS SHOULD AVG A FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL AVGS
THRU THE PD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WL FEATURE HIGH END CHC MID WEEK POPS AS
PER EXPECTATIONS OF A CDFNT APPRCH AND PASSAGE. THAT FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WARM TEMPS BACK TO...THEN SLIGHTLY BLO THE
AVGS. WPC GUIDANCE CONTS TO REPRESENT THE SCENARIO REASONABLY
WELL...SO ONLY MINOR ALTERATIONS WERE COMPLETED.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES WL CONT TO SLIDE TWD CNTRL PA THIS MRNG WHILE
INVOKING WEAK DOWNGLIDE/SBSDNC ACRS UPR OH VALLEY TERMINALS. GIVEN
THE DRY HYDROLAPSE ON THE PIT EVE SOUNDING AND ON RAP SNDINGS...WL
FORECAST JUST SOME LGT FOG...I.E. MVFR VALUES FOR MOST PORTS AS
PER THE LATEST HRRR PROJECTIONS.

ANY FOG THAT DOES DVLP WL BE SHALLOW IN NATURE...HENCE VFR WL
QUICKLY RTN AFTR DAYBREAK AND PERSIST FOR THE RMNDR OF THE TAF PD.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH SCT AFTN TSTMS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 448 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THIS AFTERNOON A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO
NOTE ARE SHOWING UP ON BOTH WV LOOP AND THE RUC ANALYSIS. THE FIRST
WAVE IS PUSHING SLOWLY THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. WHILE
THE NEXT ONE OVER SOUTHERN MN IS DIRECTLY BEHIND IT...BUT SLIGHTLY
WEST OF THE TRACK OF THE FIRST WAVE. THE FIRST WAVE HAS BEEN
TOUCHING OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND A COUPLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN WI AND WESTERN UPPER MI...BUT THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE
PRECIP HAS BEEN TO VERY SLOWLY DIMINISHING. HI RES MODEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS MAKES SENSE AS MOST OF THE INSTABILITY AND BETTER
MOISTURE SOURCE IS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE U.P. WITH ONLY MINOR
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE WESTERN
U.P. ONCE THE FIRST WAVE PUSHES OUT OF THE U.P. LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP BEFORE THE SECOND WAVE
MOVES IN. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
U.P. AROUND 00Z/28...THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THE INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST AROUND THAT TIME AND
LINGERING THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...CLOSER TO THE
BETTER FORCING. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND WEST HALF...MAINLY NEAR THE WI BORDER
OVERNIGHT...DUE LARGELY TO THE INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE FROM RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND DUE TO THE OVERALL INCREASING DEWPOINTS OVER THE
AREA.

SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT LINGERING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AND
OVER FAR WESTERN UPPER MI. THE MAIN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE PROGGED TO INTENSIFY ALLOWING A
RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. TO STRENGTHEN AS WELL. THIS WILL
HELP THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P. THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY...KEEPING
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN HALF OF THE
U.P. DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE EAST HALF UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP REDUCE ANY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE FAR
WESTERN U.P. AS MOISTURE/FORCING INCREASES OVER THOSE AREAS AS SHOWN
BY ANALYZING 1000-500RH ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER QCONV.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE LONGER TERM PERIOD ARE FOCUSED ON THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TS LATE SAT THRU MON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS AS A STRONG SW FLOW BTWN HI PRES OFF THE E COAST AND
DEEP LO PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA ADVECTS PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE
UPR LKS. TEMPS THRU MON WL BE RUNNING ABV NORMAL BEFORE COOLER AIR
RETURNS ON TUE FOLLOWING COLD FROPA ATTENDANT TO SFC/CLOSED LO
SHIFTING E INTO ONTARIO.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...UPR MI WL BE SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
MID-LVL TROF AND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG AND WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM...HUMID SSW FLOW BTWN THIS LO AND
NEARLY STATIONARY HI PRES OFF THE E COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS MODELS ADVERTISE A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/TS LATE
SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE OVER THE WRN CWA CLOSER TO THE CLOSED LOW AND
ITS ASSOC FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...SOME
OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE ACCOMPANYING DYNAMIC SUPPORT (Q-VECT
CONV) MAY NOT BE IN SYNC WITH H85 THETA E ADVECTION. HOWEVER
CONSIDERING THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE PASSAGE OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND THE ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
AREA DID BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE WEST LATE SAT NIGHT AND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. SPC HAS THE WRN THIRD OF CWA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR ON DAY3 (SUNDAY). SINCE THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW MLCAPE VALUES RISING AOA 1000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KT BY MIDDAY SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
POSSIBLE SVR STORMS IN THE HWO OVER PRIMARILY THE WEST HALF FOR SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD RISE INTO THE 80S
AWAY FM THE LK MI COOLING WITH H85 TEMPS FCST ARND 17C.

SUN NIGHT...SOME OF THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF SUGGEST
THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN CONVECTION ESPECIALLY LATER SUN NIGHT WITH
A LACK OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND DRYING/SUBSIDENCE
HINTED BY MODEL SNDGS. FOG COULD BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR SUN NIGHT
WITH WARM HUMID AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE AND A POSIBLE BREAK IN PCPN.
THE LOWEST TEMPS WILL BE MOST LIKELY DOWNWIND OF THE COOLING
INFLUENCE OF LK MI...WHERE FOG MAY ALSO ADVECT IN OFF THE LK.

MON INTO MON NIGHT...AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA
DRIFTS INTO NW ONTARIO...MODELS SHOW THAT THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY E ACROSS UPR MI. MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH WRN UPR MI IN THE MORNING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE...THEN THE FRONT STALLS
TEMPORARILY OVER CENTRAL UPR MI MON AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER
STRONGER NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE PUSHES THE FRONT EAST OF THE CWA BY
LATE MON EVENING/EARLY TUE MORNING. MODERATE MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND
MOISTENING AHEAD OF THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SHOULD INITIATE MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA OVER CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MON
EVENING. DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY/S COLD FROPA AS WELL AS
NOCTURNAL COOLING WL RESULT IN DIMINISHING CHCS FOR PCPN LATE MON
NIGHT.

TUE AND WED... ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WL REMAIN IN PLACE...MOST OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS HINT THAT A SERIES OF SHRTWVS MAY ROTATE AROUND
THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTING E THRU ONTARIO AND IMPACT THE UPR LKS. IN
THE PRESENCE OF LLVL CYCLONIC FLOW OR ESPECIALLY IF TIMED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING THESE SHORTWAVES COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLD SHOWERS.
MODELS ADVERTISE MUCH COOLER AIR (5-8C OFF 00Z ECMWF) WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THESE SHORTWAVES SO BLO NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD BE THE RULE
TUE INTO THU.

THU AND THE 4TH OF JULY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE STRONG SFC
RDGG BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FM THE WEST SO HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR
DRY FCST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS BY THE 4TH WILL BEGIN TO
REBOUND BUT MAY STILL BE SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS
LIKELY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD...HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN WI
HAVE HAD CEILING AS LOW AS 1800FT AT TIMES NEAR THE IWD TAF SITE.
THE REMAINING SITES SHOULD SEE LIMITED IMPACT FROM THESE SHOWERS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.P.
ALLOWING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND PASS OVER THE IWD TAF
SITE. CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH...THEREFORE KEPT VCSH AROUND 00Z. A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE IWD TAF SITE. THE SHOWERS THAT
LIFTED NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO CREATE AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG THAT WOULD POSSIBLY IMPACT THE KSAW TAF
SITE...THEREFORE...HAVE HINTED AT POSSIBLE VIS REDUCTION AFTER
06Z/27. OVERALL WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
WITH GUSTS REACHING AROUND 20KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LLWS
MAY BE NEED AS LLJ PUSHES IN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...WINDS MAY STAY
STRONG ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE TO KEEP THIS FROM BEING AN ISSUE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS
POINT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 448 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...LESS THAN 25 KTS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE AREA...YET WIND SPEEDS WILL STILL
REMAIN 25 KNOTS OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF
THE LAKE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 701 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP 500MB HEIGHTS
AND WINDS SHOWED A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH THE NE/IA BORDER. A FEW EMBEDDED VORTICITY
MAXIMA WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST AND PROVIDE
UPPER LEVEL ASCENT NEEDED FOR SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED WARM FRONT WAS
LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN...AS EVIDENT BY THE SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FRONT...AND SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH LOW 60 DEWPOINTS ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE FRONT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LED TO A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING NORTHWEST MN DOWN
THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA.

RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF CONVECTION SHOW
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOPAUSE...SO LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF DEEP LAYER DIRECTION SHEAR. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN SPEED
WITHIN THE LOWER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE RESULTED IN 15 TO 25KTS
OF 1KM SHEAR. MLCAPE WAS 1500 TO 2000J/KG...WHILE THE 0-3KM CAPE
AROUND 50J/KG. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM CDT. THE HIRES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CONVECTION WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING AS IT
CROSSES INTO WESTERN WI AND OUTRUNS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...BUT IN
THE MEAN TIME A FEW STRONG WINDS COULD MIX DOWN WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIP CORES...SO FEEL THAT DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
LOW LCLS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO...BUT AT THIS TIME
HODOGRAPHS WOULD NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.

THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS
IN IS WAKE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL APPROACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE WEST OF THE CWA. THIS
DRY SLOT IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES
NEAR 3000J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
TO AROUND 50KTS...BUT THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WHICH IS BETTER TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS IOWA. THEREFORE WE STILL HAVE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THE STORMS ARE ABLE
TO FIRE IN SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN. IF THEY DO...EXPECT THEM TO QUICKLY
TURN SEVERE...WITH HIGH END SEVERE POSSIBLE...MEANING HAIL OVER 2
INCHES...AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75MPH. AS OF NOW...THE BEST CHANCE
IS IN SOUTHEASTERN MN...GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM FAIRMONT MN
THROUGH MANKATO MN TO RED WING MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

LONG TERM ANALYSIS/FORECASTING CUT SHORT TODAY WITH BOTH
FORECASTERS FOCUSED ON SHORT TERM DUTIES. OVERALL...THE LONG TERM
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MASSIVE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
THE FA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONG WESTERLIES EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TO MUCH OF THE CONVECTION BY THE
TIME SUNDAY NIGHT ARRIVES WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN FA. SOME BRIEF DRYING WILL OCCUR DURING THE NIGHT...BUT A
SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WESTERN WI BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THE
SOUTHERN ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EAST WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS BEGIN
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH SIMILAR HIGHS AND YET ANOTHER THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AS THE FINAL SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH. THURSDAY IS OUR
ONLY SOLID DRY DAY BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY
ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN FROM THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY (4TH OF
JULY) AND SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WORK SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE MN/WI
BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING. KRNH WILL RECEIVE BOUTS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN THROUGH 01Z WITH KEAU IN LINE FROM 01Z-03Z. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AROUND KMSP THROUGH 02Z WHILE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT KAXN AND KRWF. THE
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE BACKED
TRACKED ON THE IFR CEILING FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN
WI FOR LATE TONIGHT. STILL INDICATED MVFR FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK BUT
FEEL THAT THE LOW LEVEL SATURATION WILL DIMINISH SOME AS A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE ON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR THE TAF SITES ON SUNDAY IS LOW AT THIS TIME. MOST
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS KEEP THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES ALTHOUGH ONE SOLUTION HAS SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
FROM KAXN TO KSTC AROUND 21Z. AT THIS POINT INDICATED VCSH. SSW
WINDS 15-20 KNOTS DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS.

KMSP...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING BY 02Z. VFR
OVERNIGHT. SSW WINDS INCREASING AFTER 16Z WITH 16-18 KNOTS GUSTING
25 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY VCSH MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SUN NITE...VFR. WINDS SW 10KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 15KTS.
TUE...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS AND SCT SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW 15-20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...RAH






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 635 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW
CIRCULATION OVER THE BISMARK AREA...WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
INITIATE ALONG A LINE FROM GENERALLY FARGO...THROUGH THE BRAINERD
AREA...AND WESTERN TWIN CITIES METRO. LATEST RUC MESO- ANALYSIS
DEPICTS THE DEVELOPING STORMS ARE ALONG AN AXIS OF INCREASING ML
CAPE/ERODING CIN...ALONG WITH STRONG SHEAR. EXPECT THIS LINE OF
STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EAST. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT SITUATION AND SUGGESTS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE OF
STORMS REACHES THE AREAS OF KINL...TO KHIB...AND EXTENDS SOUTH
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 00Z...BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVER MUCH
OF THE DLH CWA BY 03Z.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR THESE STORMS REMAINS HEAVY DOWNPOURS/LOCALIZED
FLOODING...POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS/WIND DAMAGE...AND A POSSIBLE
TORNADO. THERE IS A MINIMAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL DUE TO FREEZING
LEVELS AROUND 14 KFT


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

A STACKED LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM SRN MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO
SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INVERTED SFC
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SRN MN INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA...WHICH WILL
CLIP SECTIONS OF NW WI WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW LATE TUE
THROUGH THUR...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP
OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER
80S...BUT A COOL DOWN IS LIKELY TUE AND WED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S AND LOWER 70S. A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ARRIVES LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S THUR AND FRI.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE RISING BACK INTO THE 60S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

LINE OF STORMS LIFTING NWD THROUGH NE MN AND NW WI...BUT BETWEEN
THE TERMINALS ATTM. BROUGHT THE STORMS INTO DLH BY 01Z AND HYR BY
03Z. ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT HIB AROUND 02Z AND INL BY
01Z. VFR WITH MVFR IN THE VCNTY OF STORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BEGIN AGAIN AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
AFTER 13Z. SOME PATCHY BR IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  63  82  60  75 /  80  20  20  20
INL  65  78  62  72 /  80  30  50  70
BRD  64  83  62  79 /  80  10  10  30
HYR  68  83  63  81 /  80  30  30  40
ASX  66  84  61  81 /  80  40  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ140>143.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GSF








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 126 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

FORECAST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND TIMING OF NEXT SHORT WAVE
LATER TONIGHT OUT WEST.

THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN
IOWA/SOUTHEAST MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.  ACTIVITY IS
MOVING NORTHEAST VERY SLOWLY...AROUND 12-15KTS.  THE 05Z HRRR DOES
LIFT THIS AREA NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS IT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TOWARD 18Z...IT REDEVELOPS THE AREA...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKENS
WITH TIME. SOME CHANCE ACTIVITY OVER NEBRASKA WILL REMAIN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AS WELL.  SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND
HEATING WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE NAM AND GFS MODELS DO DEPICT THIS FAIRLY WELL.  WILL HAVE TO
KEEP HIGHER POPS TO THE EAST...AND MAY BE CATEGORICAL THROUGH PART
OF THE MORNING.

WILL MOST LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO THE EAST EARLY
EVENING...AND THEN FOCUS TURNS TO THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT
SOME SORT OF COMPLEX OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AGAIN THIS EVENING AND
RIDE EAST AHEAD OF FRONT/SHORT WAVE.  TIMING APPEARS TO BE MAINLY
AFTER 06Z SAT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS WEST...LOWER TO THE
EAST.  OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THIS WEEKEND WILL PROVE TO BE ACTIVE...NO SURPRISE THERE THIS
SUMMER...BUT IN DIFFERENT WAYS. FIRST...THERE WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN MN. AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...ACTIVITY WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. MODELS
HAVE SLOWED WITH THE TIMING A BIT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER
INSTABILITY TO BUILD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS COULD
BRING A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT STILL THINK THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE HEAVY RAINFALL. PW VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES...IN ADDITION TO
HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND MBE VELOCITIES OF 5 KTS OR LESS ALL SPELL
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. KEPT POPS GENERALLY THE SAME FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE FIRST TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF
DRYING EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THEN ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY
WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTH OF THE LARGE
UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD ATOP A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A REGION OF
INCREASING BULK SHEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN
NORTHEAST TO ECNTRL MN AND WESTERN WI. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY BEFORE ACTIVITY CONGEALS INTO A LINEAR
MCS DURING THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. THE BEST HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL
BE IF/WHERE THE LINE BECOMES WEST-EAST ORIENTATED OVERNIGHT.
TRAINING AND FLASH FLOODING COULD BECOME A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. MODELS
CURRENTLY INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR.

DEPENDING HOW THE MCS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT EVOLVES...THERE COULD BE
RAIN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR SRN MN AND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WI. BY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AND A DRY
SLOT WILL CLEAR THIS AREA OUT. FURTHER NORTH...CYCLONIC MOIST FLOW
MAY SPARK A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
MN...WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE STATE
TUESDAY.

THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT NEXT WEEK WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS FORECAST FOR ALL OF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS
IT ALSO LOOKS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

SUBTLE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER
BEHIND SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CLOUDS WILL
FOLLOW THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

KMSP...
AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE SOUTHEAST...AND
ALSO WEST OF THE METRO. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
HIGHER PROBABILITIES CENTERED AROUND 00Z. ALSO...THE LOWEST
CEILINGS WILL BE NORTH OF MSP TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME TO NOT
HAVE CONFIDENCE TO RAISE THEM ABOVE 1500FT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR WITH AFTERNOON IFR/TSRA+ POSSIBLE. WINDS S AT 10KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS W AT 15G20KTS.
TUE...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 20KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 115 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

MAIN UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE TROF AXIS REMAINS FAIRLY FAR TO OUR WEST
LATE THIS MORNING..WITH N/S SURFACE TROF/WIND SHIFT EXTENDING FROM
NE COLORADO TO WRN N DAKOTA..AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SLOWLY
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RADAR COMPOSITE IS
QUITE MESSY WITH LOTS OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE
UPPER MIDWEST..ALONG WITH SEVERAL AREAS WHERE DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE FROM FAR NRN MN INTO MANITOBA AND SW
MN/WRN IOWA.

LINGERING SHOWERS OVER NW WISCONSIN AND SOME WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS
THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PRICE/IRON COUNTIES..AND AREAS OF THE NORTH SHORE NE OF GRAND
MARAIS..BUT OVERALL THESE AREAS OR PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVER THE MIDDAY HOURS. HOWEVER..WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS
CONTINUES TO LINGER AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION
PERSISTS..AND IN AREAS WHERE LIMITED SUN HAS BROKEN OUT..CLOUDS
HAVE RAPIDLY FILLED BACK IN. WE GENERALLY EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST
FOR MOST OF THE DAY..WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MOST OF THE DLH
CWA.

THE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXES APPEAR TO REMAIN TOO FAR WEST
OF OUR AREA TO BE OF MAJOR INFLUENCE REGARDING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BEFORE LATER TONIGHT THIS FAR EAST. HOWEVER..THE
PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST APPEARS TO BE THE MCV CLEARLY EVIDENT
IN RADAR/SAT IMAGERY OVER SE S DAKOTA. AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THIS FEATURE OVER WRN MN ARE RECEIVING THE BEST HEATING AND WILL
HAVE THE DEEPEST BOUNDARY LAYER BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS VORT
MAX TRANSLATES SLOWLY NEWD THRU THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING
FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF IT..THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
LIFT/INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN FAIRLY EXPANSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIALLY THIS
WILL BE SW OF THE DLH CWA..BUT IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
SW PARTS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SVR WX RISK LOOKS PRETTY
BENIGN..BUT COULD BE SOME PRETTY DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH A
SLOW MOVING NON-SVR MCS WHICH COULD ACT TO PRIME THE ANTECEDENT
HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SAT
THRU SUN NIGHT.

UPDATES REFLECTING THE ABOVE REASONING HAVE BEEN MADE TO GRIDS AND
ASSOCIATED TEXT PRODUCTS. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO DELAY HIGHER POPS
OUT WEST UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER MOST AREAS.
UPDATES ARE ALREADY AVAILABLE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

MSAS SHOWS A LARGE SFC HIGH OVER THE ERN GT LAKES/QUEBEC AND A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS INCREASING
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE REGION. PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES
ARE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE
REACHED THE LOW/MID 60S OVER THE SRN TIER OF THE CWA. TYPICAL MARINE
LAYER IS REPRESENTED IN THE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS WITH LOW 40S DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD...INTO THE TWIN PORTS...AND ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE. AN EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION IS MOVING NORTH FROM SERN MN
AND APPEARS TO BE LINKED TO THE RUC13 85H MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS
ANALYSIS. ADDITIONALLY...A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF IS LOCATED FROM
SERN SODAK INTO WRN IOWA. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE MAKING THEIR WAY
TOWARDS THE BRD LAKES REGION. ELSEWHERE PATCHY MID/HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY/TONIGHT/TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

TODAY...WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES TOWARDS SRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP IS GOING TO BE VERY CHALLENGING CONSIDERING THE
LIMITED PREDICTABILITY OF MESOSCALE FORCING WITHIN THIS BROAD ARE OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. WILL PUT HIGHER POPS OVER SRN/SERN CWA
THROUGH 21Z BASED ON INITIAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN SERN MN MOVING
INTO THE AREA. HI RES MDLS NOT VERY HELPFUL WITH DEPICTING CURRENT
PRECIP AREAL COVERAGE VERY WELL. UPDATES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING CONSIDERING LOW CONFIDENCE. GENERAL PATTERN WILL
FAVOR SRN TIER OF ZONES TODAY FOR PRECIP WITH STABILITY INCREASING
NORTHEAST INTO THE ARROWHEAD DUE TO THE MARINE LAYER.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW...SIGNIFICANT LLJ DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
CTRL PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRNTL BDRY. FCST MOVEMENT OF LLJ
PLACES STRONG MSTR TRANSPORT INTO WRN PART OF CWA BY 12Z. HOWEVER
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT AT MID LVLS SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL
OCCUR WHICH MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO NWRN PART OF CWA.
MAY NEED TO ADD HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO WRN CWA IF LATER MDL OUTPUT
CONTINUES THIS TREND. THIS AREA OF MID LVL WARMING IS FCST TO ADVECT
EAST TOMORROW SO WE MAY FIND A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIP OVER CTRL/ERN
CWA UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING. WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS OVER WRN CWA
WHERE MID LVL COOLING BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.



.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

A FAIRLY WET PERIOD IS SHAPING UP EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL
RESULT IN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.8 TO 2
INCHES. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE WET ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TOTAL
RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND ON THE AVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF AN
INCH OR MORE IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCAL AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE IN BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHAT OF
A DRY SLOT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF LIKELY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL THEN TRANSITION FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A COUPLE DRY DAYS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT FROM EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT A WARMUP WILL THEN REDEVELOP FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

GENERALLY MVFR/LOW END VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. THESE
STORMS WILL CONTAIN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. HAVE HANDLED THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WITH VCTS FOR NOW AS
TIMING REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE REGION
BECOMES POSITIONED IN A MOIST WARM FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  75  61  82 /  60  50  80  30
INL  65  79  63  80 /  50  60  80  30
BRD  70  81  66  83 /  70  70  80  40
HYR  67  83  69  86 /  60  50  80  30
ASX  62  80  65  82 /  40  40  70  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GRANING







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS DULUTH MN

 1111 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

MAIN UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE TROF AXIS REMAINS FAIRLY FAR TO OUR WEST
LATE THIS MORNING..WITH N/S SURFACE TROF/WIND SHIFT EXTENDING FROM
NE COLORADO TO WRN N DAKOTA..AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SLOWLY
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RADAR COMPOSITE IS
QUITE MESSY WITH LOTS OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE
UPPER MIDWEST..ALONG WITH SEVERAL AREAS WHERE DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE FROM FAR NRN MN INTO MANITOBA AND SW
MN/WRN IOWA.

LINGERING SHOWERS OVER NW WISCONSIN AND SOME WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS
THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PRICE/IRON COUNTIES..AND AREAS OF THE NORTH SHORE NE OF GRAND
MARAIS..BUT OVERALL THESE AREAS OR PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVER THE MIDDAY HOURS. HOWEVER..WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS
CONTINUES TO LINGER AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION
PERSISTS..AND IN AREAS WHERE LIMITED SUN HAS BROKEN OUT..CLOUDS
HAVE RAPIDLY FILLED BACK IN. WE GENERALLY EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST
FOR MOST OF THE DAY..WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MOST OF THE DLH
CWA.

THE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXES APPEAR TO REMAIN TOO FAR WEST
OF OUR AREA TO BE OF MAJOR INFLUENCE REGARDING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BEFORE LATER TONIGHT THIS FAR EAST. HOWEVER..THE
PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST APPEARS TO BE THE MCV CLEARLY EVIDENT
IN RADAR/SAT IMAGERY OVER SE S DAKOTA. AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THIS FEATURE OVER WRN MN ARE RECEIVING THE BEST HEATING AND WILL
HAVE THE DEEPEST BOUNDARY LAYER BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS VORT
MAX TRANSLATES SLOWLY NEWD THRU THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING
FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF IT..THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
LIFT/INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN FAIRLY EXPANSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIALLY THIS
WILL BE SW OF THE DLH CWA..BUT IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
SW PARTS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SVR WX RISK LOOKS PRETTY
BENIGN..BUT COULD BE SOME PRETTY DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH A
SLOW MOVING NON-SVR MCS WHICH COULD ACT TO PRIME THE ANTECEDENT
HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SAT
THRU SUN NIGHT.

UPDATES REFLECTING THE ABOVE REASONING HAVE BEEN MADE TO GRIDS AND
ASSOCIATED TEXT PRODUCTS. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO DELAY HIGHER POPS
OUT WEST UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER MOST AREAS.
UPDATES ARE ALREADY AVAILABLE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

MSAS SHOWS A LARGE SFC HIGH OVER THE ERN GT LAKES/QUEBEC AND A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS INCREASING
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE REGION. PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES
ARE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE
REACHED THE LOW/MID 60S OVER THE SRN TIER OF THE CWA. TYPICAL MARINE
LAYER IS REPRESENTED IN THE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS WITH LOW 40S DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD...INTO THE TWIN PORTS...AND ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE. AN EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION IS MOVING NORTH FROM SERN MN
AND APPEARS TO BE LINKED TO THE RUC13 85H MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS
ANALYSIS. ADDITIONALLY...A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF IS LOCATED FROM
SERN SODAK INTO WRN IOWA. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE MAKING THEIR WAY
TOWARDS THE BRD LAKES REGION. ELSEWHERE PATCHY MID/HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY/TONIGHT/TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

TODAY...WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES TOWARDS SRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP IS GOING TO BE VERY CHALLENGING CONSIDERING THE
LIMITED PREDICTABILITY OF MESOSCALE FORCING WITHIN THIS BROAD ARE OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. WILL PUT HIGHER POPS OVER SRN/SERN CWA
THROUGH 21Z BASED ON INITIAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN SERN MN MOVING
INTO THE AREA. HI RES MDLS NOT VERY HELPFUL WITH DEPICTING CURRENT
PRECIP AREAL COVERAGE VERY WELL. UPDATES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING CONSIDERING LOW CONFIDENCE. GENERAL PATTERN WILL
FAVOR SRN TIER OF ZONES TODAY FOR PRECIP WITH STABILITY INCREASING
NORTHEAST INTO THE ARROWHEAD DUE TO THE MARINE LAYER.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW...SIGNIFICANT LLJ DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
CTRL PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRNTL BDRY. FCST MOVEMENT OF LLJ
PLACES STRONG MSTR TRANSPORT INTO WRN PART OF CWA BY 12Z. HOWEVER
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT AT MID LVLS SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL
OCCUR WHICH MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO NWRN PART OF CWA.
MAY NEED TO ADD HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO WRN CWA IF LATER MDL OUTPUT
CONTINUES THIS TREND. THIS AREA OF MID LVL WARMING IS FCST TO ADVECT
EAST TOMORROW SO WE MAY FIND A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIP OVER CTRL/ERN
CWA UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING. WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS OVER WRN CWA
WHERE MID LVL COOLING BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.



.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

A FAIRLY WET PERIOD IS SHAPING UP EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL
RESULT IN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.8 TO 2
INCHES. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE WET ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TOTAL
RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND ON THE AVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF AN
INCH OR MORE IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCAL AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE IN BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHAT OF
A DRY SLOT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF LIKELY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL THEN TRANSITION FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A COUPLE DRY DAYS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT FROM EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT A WARMUP WILL THEN REDEVELOP FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND
ESPECIALLY INTO TONIGHT...AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD. GULF
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR...WITH SOME IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  57  75  61 /  40  60  50  80
INL  79  65  79  63 /  50  50  60  80
BRD  79  70  81  66 /  70  70  70  80
HYR  80  67  83  69 /  50  60  50  80
ASX  75  62  80  65 /  40  40  40  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP






UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION



 &&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

MSAS SHOWS A LARGE SFC HIGH OVER THE ERN GT LAKES/QUEBEC AND A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS INCREASING
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE REGION. PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES
ARE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE
REACHED THE LOW/MID 60S OVER THE SRN TIER OF THE CWA. TYPICAL MARINE
LAYER IS REPRESENTED IN THE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS WITH LOW 40S DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD...INTO THE TWIN PORTS...AND ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE. AN EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION IS MOVING NORTH FROM SERN MN
AND APPEARS TO BE LINKED TO THE RUC13 85H MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS
ANALYSIS. ADDITIONALLY...A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF IS LOCATED FROM
SERN SODAK INTO WRN IOWA. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE MAKING THEIR WAY
TOWARDS THE BRD LAKES REGION. ELSEWHERE PATCHY MID/HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY/TONIGHT/TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

TODAY...WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES TOWARDS SRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP IS GOING TO BE VERY CHALLENGING CONSIDERING THE
LIMITED PREDICTABILITY OF MESOSCALE FORCING WITHIN THIS BROAD ARE OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. WILL PUT HIGHER POPS OVER SRN/SERN CWA
THROUGH 21Z BASED ON INITIAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN SERN MN MOVING
INTO THE AREA. HI RES MDLS NOT VERY HELPFUL WITH DEPICTING CURRENT
PRECIP AREAL COVERAGE VERY WELL. UPDATES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING CONSIDERING LOW CONFIDENCE. GENERAL PATTERN WILL
FAVOR SRN TIER OF ZONES TODAY FOR PRECIP WITH STABILITY INCREASING
NORTHEAST INTO THE ARROWHEAD DUE TO THE MARINE LAYER.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW...SIGNIFICANT LLJ DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
CTRL PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRNTL BDRY. FCST MOVEMENT OF LLJ
PLACES STRONG MSTR TRANSPORT INTO WRN PART OF CWA BY 12Z. HOWEVER
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT AT MID LVLS SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL
OCCUR WHICH MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO NWRN PART OF CWA.
MAY NEED TO ADD HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO WRN CWA IF LATER MDL OUTPUT
CONTINUES THIS TREND. THIS AREA OF MID LVL WARMING IS FCST TO ADVECT
EAST TOMORROW SO WE MAY FIND A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIP OVER CTRL/ERN
CWA UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING. WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS OVER WRN CWA
WHERE MID LVL COOLING BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.



.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

A FAIRLY WET PERIOD IS SHAPING UP EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL
RESULT IN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.8 TO 2
INCHES. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE WET ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TOTAL
RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND ON THE AVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF AN
INCH OR MORE IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCAL AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE IN BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHAT OF
A DRY SLOT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF LIKELY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL THEN TRANSITION FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A COUPLE DRY DAYS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT FROM EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT A WARMUP WILL THEN REDEVELOP FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND
ESPECIALLY INTO TONIGHT...AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD. GULF
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR...WITH SOME IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  57  75  61 /  50  50  50  80
INL  79  65  79  63 /  50  50  60  80
BRD  79  70  81  66 /  50  50  70  80
HYR  80  67  83  69 /  50  40  50  80
ASX  75  62  80  65 /  30  30  40  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS DULUTH MN

 430 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

MSAS SHOWS A LARGE SFC HIGH OVER THE ERN GT LAKES/QUEBEC AND A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS INCREASING
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE REGION. PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES
ARE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE
REACHED THE LOW/MID 60S OVER THE SRN TIER OF THE CWA. TYPICAL MARINE
LAYER IS REPRESENTED IN THE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS WITH LOW 40S DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD...INTO THE TWIN PORTS...AND ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE. AN EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION IS MOVING NORTH FROM SERN MN
AND APPEARS TO BE LINKED TO THE RUC13 85H MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS
ANALYSIS. ADDITIONALLY...A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF IS LOCATED FROM
SERN SODAK INTO WRN IOWA. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE MAKING THEIR WAY
TOWARDS THE BRD LAKES REGION. ELSEWHERE PATCHY MID/HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY/TONIGHT/TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

TODAY...WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES TOWARDS SRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP IS GOING TO BE VERY CHALLENGING CONSIDERING THE
LIMITED PREDICTABILITY OF MESOSCALE FORCING WITHIN THIS BROAD ARE OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. WILL PUT HIGHER POPS OVER SRN/SERN CWA
THROUGH 21Z BASED ON INITIAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN SERN MN MOVING
INTO THE AREA. HI RES MDLS NOT VERY HELPFUL WITH DEPICTING CURRENT
PRECIP AREAL COVERAGE VERY WELL. UPDATES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING CONSIDERING LOW CONFIDENCE. GENERAL PATTERN WILL
FAVOR SRN TIER OF ZONES TODAY FOR PRECIP WITH STABILITY INCREASING
NORTHEAST INTO THE ARROWHEAD DUE TO THE MARINE LAYER.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW...SIGNIFICANT LLJ DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
CTRL PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRNTL BDRY. FCST MOVEMENT OF LLJ
PLACES STRONG MSTR TRANSPORT INTO WRN PART OF CWA BY 12Z. HOWEVER
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT AT MID LVLS SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL
OCCUR WHICH MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO NWRN PART OF CWA.
MAY NEED TO ADD HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO WRN CWA IF LATER MDL OUTPUT
CONTINUES THIS TREND. THIS AREA OF MID LVL WARMING IS FCST TO ADVECT
EAST TOMORROW SO WE MAY FIND A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIP OVER CTRL/ERN
CWA UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING. WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS OVER WRN CWA
WHERE MID LVL COOLING BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.




.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

A FAIRLY WET PERIOD IS SHAPING UP EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL
RESULT IN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.8 TO 2
INCHES. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE WET ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TOTAL
RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND ON THE AVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF AN
INCH OR MORE IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCAL AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE IN BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHAT OF
A DRY SLOT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF LIKELY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL THEN TRANSITION FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A COUPLE DRY DAYS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT FROM EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT A WARMUP WILL THEN REDEVELOP FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

HAVE DELAYED THE MENTION OF VCSH TO 13Z OR LATER AS DRY AIR OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE PCPN AT BAY. EXPECT GUSTY SFC WINDS BY
15Z AND DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET. KEPT THE PROB30 FOR -TSRA...BUT
DELAYED THE MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS. VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  57  75  61 /  50  50  50  80
INL  79  65  79  63 /  50  50  60  80
BRD  79  70  81  66 /  50  50  70  80
HYR  80  67  83  69 /  50  40  50  80
ASX  75  62  80  65 /  30  30  40  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 419 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

FORECAST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND TIMING OF NEXT SHORT WAVE
LATER TONIGHT OUT WEST.

THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN
IOWA/SOUTHEAST MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.  ACTIVITY IS
MOVING NORTHEAST VERY SLOWLY...AROUND 12-15KTS.  THE 05Z HRRR DOES
LIFT THIS AREA NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS IT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TOWARD 18Z...IT REDEVELOPS THE AREA...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKENS
WITH TIME. SOME CHANCE ACTIVITY OVER NEBRASKA WILL REMAIN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AS WELL.  SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND
HEATING WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE NAM AND GFS MODELS DO DEPICT THIS FAIRLY WELL.  WILL HAVE TO
KEEP HIGHER POPS TO THE EAST...AND MAY BE CATEGORICAL THROUGH PART
OF THE MORNING.

WILL MOST LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO THE EAST EARLY
EVENING...AND THEN FOCUS TURNS TO THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT
SOME SORT OF COMPLEX OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AGAIN THIS EVENING AND
RIDE EAST AHEAD OF FRONT/SHORT WAVE.  TIMING APPEARS TO BE MAINLY
AFTER 06Z SAT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS WEST...LOWER TO THE
EAST.  OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THIS WEEKEND WILL PROVE TO BE ACTIVE...NO SURPRISE THERE THIS
SUMMER...BUT IN DIFFERENT WAYS. FIRST...THERE WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN MN. AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...ACTIVITY WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. MODELS
HAVE SLOWED WITH THE TIMING A BIT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER
INSTABILITY TO BUILD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS COULD
BRING A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT STILL THINK THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE HEAVY RAINFALL. PW VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES...IN ADDITION TO
HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND MBE VELOCITIES OF 5 KTS OR LESS ALL SPELL
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. KEPT POPS GENERALLY THE SAME FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE FIRST TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF
DRYING EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THEN ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY
WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTH OF THE LARGE
UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD ATOP A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A REGION OF
INCREASING BULK SHEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN
NORTHEAST TO ECNTRL MN AND WESTERN WI. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY BEFORE ACTIVITY CONGEALS INTO A LINEAR
MCS DURING THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. THE BEST HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL
BE IF/WHERE THE LINE BECOMES WEST-EAST ORIENTATED OVERNIGHT.
TRAINING AND FLASH FLOODING COULD BECOME A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. MODELS
CURRENTLY INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR.

DEPENDING HOW THE MCS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT EVOLVES...THERE COULD BE
RAIN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR SRN MN AND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WI. BY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AND A DRY
SLOT WILL CLEAR THIS AREA OUT. FURTHER NORTH...CYCLONIC MOIST FLOW
MAY SPARK A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
MN...WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE STATE
TUESDAY.

THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT NEXT WEEK WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS FORECAST FOR ALL OF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS
IT ALSO LOOKS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

DIFFICULT TO DISCERN TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA DURING PERIOD. SOME
THREAT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH PEAK HEATING. SHORT WAVE IS SLOW
TO MAKE PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION...WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXPECTED. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER PROBS FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING...THEN BRING
PROB30/VCSH TYPE ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON. APPEARS ANYTIME AFTER
17Z/18Z FOR THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN AREAS AS
SHORT WAVE EXITS THE AREA. WILL MENTION MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER
28.02Z AGAIN OVER THE WISCONSIN REGION AND THIS COULD PROPAGATE
EAST DURING THE NIGHT AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT. WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS AS GRADIENT INCREASES LATER IN THE MORNING WITH
GUSTS TO 20KT-28KTS POSSIBLE.

KMSP...
SOME THREAT OF SHRA LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. THEN EXPECT BETTER THREAT DEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS UPPER TROUGH/INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH PEAK HEATING. BEST SHOT
OF ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE IN THE 18Z-22Z PERIOD. WILL MENTION
PROB30 FOR THIS FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VFR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH A SHOT OF LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN/THUNDER. MAY SEE
CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE OF
THIS AT THE MOMENT. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASE BY MID MORNING OR SO WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS LIKELY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
WINDS SSW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 402 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

MSAS SHOWS A LARGE SFC HIGH OVER THE ERN GT LAKES/QUEBEC AND A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS INCREASING
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE REGION. PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES
ARE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE
REACHED THE LOW/MID 60S OVER THE SRN TIER OF THE CWA. TYPICAL MARINE
LAYER IS REPRESENTED IN THE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS WITH LOW 40S DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD...INTO THE TWIN PORTS...AND ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE. AN EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION IS MOVING NORTH FROM SERN MN
AND APPEARS TO BE LINKED TO THE RUC13 85H MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS
ANALYSIS. ADDITIONALLY...A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF IS LOCATED FROM
SERN SODAK INTO WRN IOWA. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE MAKING THEIR WAY
TOWARDS THE BRD LAKES REGION. ELSEWHERE PATCHY MID/HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY/TONIGHT/TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

TODAY...WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES TOWARDS SRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP IS GOING TO BE VERY CHALLENGING CONSIDERING THE
LIMITED PREDICTABILITY OF MESOSCALE FORCING WITHIN THIS BROAD ARE OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. WILL PUT HIGHER POPS OVER SRN/SERN CWA
THROUGH 21Z BASED ON INITIAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN SERN MN MOVING
INTO THE AREA. HI RES MDLS NOT VERY HELPFUL WITH DEPICTING CURRENT
PRECIP AREAL COVERAGE VERY WELL. UPDATES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING CONSIDERING LOW CONFIDENCE. GENERAL PATTERN WILL
FAVOR SRN TIER OF ZONES TODAY FOR PRECIP WITH STABILITY INCREASING
NORTHEAST INTO THE ARROWHEAD DUE TO THE MARINE LAYER.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW...SIGNIFICANT LLJ DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
CTRL PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRNTL BDRY. FCST MOVEMENT OF LLJ
PLACES STRONG MSTR TRANSPORT INTO WRN PART OF CWA BY 12Z. HOWEVER
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT AT MID LVLS SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL
OCCUR WHICH MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO NWRN PART OF CWA.
MAY NEED TO ADD HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO WRN CWA IF LATER MDL OUTPUT
CONTINUES THIS TREND. THIS AREA OF MID LVL WARMING IS FCST TO ADVECT
EAST TOMORROW SO WE MAY FIND A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIP OVER CTRL/ERN
CWA UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING. WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS OVER WRN CWA
WHERE MID LVL COOLING BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.




.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

A FAIRLY WET PERIOD IS SHAPING UP EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL
RESULT IN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.8 TO 2
INCHES. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE WET ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TOTAL
SNOWFALL OVER THE WEEKEND ON THE AVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF
AN INCH OR MORE IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WITH THUNDERSTORMS...LOCAL AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE IN BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER AREA
OF LIKELY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL THEN TRANSITION FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
A COUPLE DRY DAYS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT FROM EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT A WARMUP WILL THEN REDEVELOP FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

HAVE DELAYED THE MENTION OF VCSH TO 13Z OR LATER AS DRY AIR OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE PCPN AT BAY. EXPECT GUSTY SFC WINDS BY
15Z AND DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET. KEPT THE PROB30 FOR -TSRA...BUT
DELAYED THE MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS. VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  57  75  61 /  50  50  50  80
INL  79  65  79  63 /  50  50  60  80
BRD  79  70  81  66 /  50  50  70  80
HYR  80  67  83  69 /  50  40  50  80
ASX  75  62  80  65 /  30  30  40  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

 1108 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.UPDATE...DECREASED HOURLY AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY AROUND 2-4F DEGREES
GIVEN CURRENT AND EXPECTED CLOUD/RAIN COVERAGE TRENDS. POPS/WEATHER
WORDING WERE GENERALLY LEFT INTACT WITH SLIGHT BOOST IN POPS FOR
SOUTH ZONES THIS AFTN PER HRRR NWP OUTPUT.

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING
WITH BEST CONCENTRATION ALONG THE MS RIVER TRAILING SOUTH TO MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION NEAR THE LA COAST. HRRR LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE
OF CURRENT REGIME INDICATING THE RAIN SHIELD PERSISTING WHICH WOULD
KEEP INSTABILITY MORE IN CHECK IN LOWERING BL TEMPS. HAVE WEIGHTED
AFTN FORECAST MORE TOWARDS HRRR VS. OTHER HI RES MODELS THAT CLEAR
THE MS RIVER RAIN BAND OUT COMPLETELY WITH MODERATING INSTABILITY AND
BRINGING MORE ROBUST CONVECTION NORTHWARD THROUGH LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTN. NOT WILLING TO BITE OFF THIS SOLUTION JUST YET GIVEN
CURRENT TRENDS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY IF EVOLUTION DIFFERS BUT FEEL
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S IN SW/CENTRAL MS. FOR
SE MS HOWEVER, SOME THINNING OF CLOUDS APPEARS ONGOING AND WITH MORE
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LOW-LVL FLOW, THIS AREA WOULD BE MORE FAVORED
FOR TSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A
STRONG OR BRIEFLY SEVERE STORM CAN NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT DUE TO
OUTFLOW MERGER POSSIBILITIES. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...PLENTY OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES HIGHER THAN NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH PEAK STORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TAF SITES
MAY BE IMPACTED AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME OF THE DAY WITH RAIN. OUTSIDE
OF THE RAIN AREAS...EXPECT MOSTLY HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDINESS AND RELATIVELY STRONG FLOW
WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE RISK FOR FOG...BUT SOME IFR CATEGORY
STRATUS/CIGS COULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MID
MORNING SATURDAY. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM...
AREA VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 925/850 MB FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO
STRENGTHEN TO 25-35 KT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAS SUPPORTED A SURGE IN RA/SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE INLAND ACROSS S LA AND INTO SW MS. LATEST HRRR
SUGGESTS THIS SURGE MAY HAVE A HARD TIME PENETRATING VERY FAR N OF
I-20 THIS MORNING...BUT STILL NEED TO UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS FOR THE
MORNING AND ESPECIALLY IN SW SECTIONS. NEW PRODUCTS ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER MORNING...ANOTHER REMNANT MCS AND ASSOCIATED MCV MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS MORNINGS IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED WITH AS MUCH
LAYERED CLOUDS AS THURSDAY MORNINGS. STILL...THERE ARE EXTENSIVE MID
CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES...WITH A VORT CENTER INVOF WEST CENTRAL
MS. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NE AND POTENTIALLY PRODUCE
SOME SHRA/TSRA PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AM. NEXT UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING EXTENSIVE CONVECTION S OF THE LA
COAST. EXPECT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NE AND COMBINE WITH
CONTINUED PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND BINOVC ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION
TO YIELD ANOTHER RASH OF SHRA/TSRA BUILDING UP FROM THE S LATER
TODAY. NAILING DOWN TIMING AND BETTER COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE...AND NOT REALLY SEEING ANY GREAT METEOROLOGICAL
REASON FOR THE GRADATION IN POPS GFS MOS SHOWS FROM HIGHER TO LOWER
FROM NW TO SE ACROSS FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN
THAT MODELS SHOW SE AREAS IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A WEAK UPPER
JET STREAK WHICH COULD HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION AS SHOWN BY 00Z ECMWF
AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. HENCE FOR NOW HAVE JUST OPTED TO GO
WITH LIKELY POPS EVERYWHERE FOR TODAY WITH AN INCREASING RISK AS DAY
GOES ON. AS WITH YESTERDAY...MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH MOST FAVORABLE LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW/MERGER SETUPS. FOR NOW...THOUGH...WITH LAPSE RATES
CONTINUING TO LOOK WEAK AND GENERALLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR
JUNE...PLAN TO LEAVE HWO CLEAR FOR TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS AND DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW BEGINS TO RELAX A BIT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD A LITTLE
FROM THE EAST. HENCE EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO BE LESS FRI NIGHT
THAN TONIGHT...AND WILL MAINLY CONFINE CONVECTION TO THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS TREND OF GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS CONTINUES INTO SAT
ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER PW VALUES MORE IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH
RANGE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESSER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON
SATURDAY...BUT WITH THE WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE
AND INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED TSRA
TO DEVELOP MOST AREAS BY MIDDAY. IN FACT...A NUMBER OF SIGNS POINT TO
SAT HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MORE ROBUST DAY WITH REGARD TO
POTENTIALLY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN THE
PERSISTENTLY WET PATTERN OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS AGREE THAT
AS HEIGHTS BUILD A LITTLE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LAPSE RATES WITH VERTICAL TOTALS
FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE 27 TO 29 DEGREE RANGE. LESS DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN MORE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE
VALUES FORECAST TO APPROACH 3000 J/KG OVER PARTS OF THE AREA.
FINALLY...MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH FAVORABLE DEEP
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND ACTUALLY SOME DECENT (FOR JUNE) LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...WITH 0-1 KM S-R HELICITY IN THE 100-200 M2/S2 RANGE AND BULK
SHEAR 10-20 KT. SPC HAS ALL BUT THE SE IN 5 PCT SEVERE PROBABILITIES
FOR SAT...AND 00Z MODELS IMPLY THAT WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS SHOULD
HAVE BEST RISK FOR MORE POTENT STORMS. MAY MENTION A LIMITED SEVERE
RISK IN HWO FOR SAT...AND REGARDLESS TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED GOING
INTO WEEKEND.

WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...MAX TEMPS THURSDAY ACROSS AREA RANGED
FROM A FEW DEGS BELOW TO A FEW DEGS ABOVE FORECAST...BUT OVERALL
TREND WAS FOR ANY MINIMAL AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO POP TEMPS UP A BIT
HIGHER THAN FORECAST. HENCE WITH CURRENT CLOUD COVER EVEN LESS
EXTENSIVE THAN YESTERDAY WILL JUST GO WITH GFS MOS FOR TODAY...AND
IN FACT GENERALLY STICK NEAR GFS MOS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
/AEG/

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLY LESS RAIN CHANCES OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
TIME COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  HOWEVER...LESS COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND CLOUDS THROUGH MID-WEEK...WILL IN TURN ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH
CONTINUING HUMID CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAKENING IN THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW WEAK
TROUGHING TO SETUP FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...PLACING US UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR AT
LEAST SOME PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE EXTENDED.  BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE CURRENTLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL CAUSE A
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHWEST INTO THE CWA DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY.  THE GFS LINGERS THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY...AIDING TO SPARK CONVECTION OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  MEANWHILE THE ECWMF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND SENDING THE BOUNDARY WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO.

THAT SAID...BOTH MODELS...BUT NAMELY THE ECMWF AS AGAIN IT`S THE
AGGRESSOR WITH ITS NORTHWEST FLOW SOLUTION AND FRONTAL
MOVEMENT...ALSO HINT THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THIS
FLOW COULD TRAVERSE THE REGION PERHAPS BRINGING A COMPLEX OR TWO OF
STORMS SOUTHEAST NEAR OR THROUGH THE REGION.  I`LL LEAN A BIT CLOSER
TO THE GFS THIS PACKAGE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY PROMOTES WEAKER BUT A
MORE QUASI-NORTHWEST FLOW FOR A SHORTER TIME AND HANGS UP THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY...I FIND IT HARD TO BELIEVE THE FRONT MAKING IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS GIVEN SUCH ADVERTISED HIGH HEIGHTS THERE.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD AS THEY
ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S. LESS COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WILL ALLOW HIGH TO CLIMB INTO
THE MIDDLE 90S.  THEN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY...INCREASING CLOUDS...AND CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION EACH DAY...HIGHS COULD BE LOWER THAN LOW AND MIDDLE 90S
CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       83  70  90  73 /  90  30  33   7
MERIDIAN      84  69  91  71 /  85  32  23   9
VICKSBURG     82  72  90  72 /  90  31  36   8
HATTIESBURG   86  72  92  73 /  72  25  35   7
NATCHEZ       81  72  88  74 /  72  29  44   7
GREENVILLE    82  72  89  74 /  87  34  34  11
GREENWOOD     82  70  90  73 /  91  34  32  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/EC/AEG/19







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 926 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 925 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014

Line of storms has moved into eastern Missouri and has split into
two, with scattered storms now concentrated over northeast and
southeast Missouri. These storms will continue to move east this
evening and out of the area by just after midnight. Latest runs of
RAP still shows some low level moisture convergence lingering
over the southern half of Missouri overnight, so will keep chance
of showers/storms going over the southern half of the CWA the
rest of the night.

Britt

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014

Scattered showers and storms have developed this afternoon, mainly
across central and northeast MO into west central IL, due to diurnal
heating and destabilization.  Although most of this current activity
will dissipate by sunset, a more organized band of showers and
storms is expected to translate eastward through our forecast area
the evening into the overnight hours.  This convection is ahead of a
shortwave trough currently extending across eastern portions of
Nebraska and Kansas.  The HRRR model moves this band of convection
eastward into central MO just after 7 pm, then into the St Louis
metro area by late evening.  There may be some strong wind gusts
with these storms across northeast and central MO.  The convection
may gradually weaken late this evening and overnight as it shifts
eastward through the St Louis metro area.  Low temperatures will be
similar to last night, generally in the lower 70s.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014

Overall, it appears that the unsettled weather trend will continue
across the region heading into the start of the new week.  Trying to
pin down these periodic storm chances remain the primary forecast
concern.

For Sunday, forecast will reflect the thinking that tonight`s
convection should be exiting southeast sections of the CWA on Sunday
morning; however, if tonight`s complex is quicker than expected,
then these morning PoPs may be too high.  Once this activity exits,
then the question is whether there will be any redevelopment as AMS
destabilizes during the afternoon. Short range guidance based off of
12z UA data does suggest several very weak ripples in the flow that
will impact the area during the afternoon during max heating,
but they are also indicating warming mid level temps along and west
of the Mississippi River that may tend to cap any surface based
redevelopment.  GFS and GEM are a bit more bullish on the increase
of 7h temps over central MO, so have left forecast dry in this area
with slight chance/low chance PoPs elsewhere.

Intense convection is expected to blossom over the mid-Missouri
Valley Sunday afternoon in the very unstable airmass near the
surface boundary and ahead of the next shortwave, with this activity
quickly growing upscale into a convective complex that will then
work into the mid-Mississippi Valley during the overnight hours.
While there is still uncertainly on the exact location of storm
genesis, all storm propagation vectors from the various 12z
solutions have a fairly pronounced southerly component which
suggests complex try to build into our CWA with time.  Based on
this, I`ve tried to be fairly generous with the southward expansion
of PoPs and have taken mention of thunder to the I44 corridor in
MO/I70 corridor in IL by 12z Monday.

Remnants of Sunday nights convection will exit Monday morning, and
then there should be a bit of a lull before the third round of
convection sweeps across the region (primarily on Monday night) as
main cold front and associated shortwave move into the region and
interact with the very unstable airmass.  Depending upon the amount
of cloud cover, Monday should certainly be one of the warmest day so
far this summer with 850MB temps of 20-22C and gusty southwest
winds, and have maintained going highs in the low-mid 90s over all
but our far NW counties.

Medium range output continues to suggest below average temperatures,
and unusually low summertime humidities, for the first several days
of July.  Guidance remains in good agreement that axis of atypically
deep mid level trof will work into the Great Lakes region, bringing
relatively cool and dry air into the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Several shortwaves rotating through the trof will track across the
region at the same time, which will likely mean a continuation of
some shower and thunderstorm threat in the Tuesday-Wednesday time
frame, mainly over southern sections of the CWA where dynamics will
have the best chance to interact with the lower level
baroclinicity.

Right now it looks like more typical temps/humidity levels will be
returning by the Fourth of July weekend as upper trof works east and
ridging expands from the Rockies into the central CONUS.  Rain
chances look to be quite low in the Thursday-Saturday time
frame.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014

Line of TSRA continues to move ewd this evening. This line shud
weaken as it moves ewd after sunset, but is still anticipated to
impact all terminals. However, the strength of the storms is
uncertain, but expected to remain below severe limits. Otherwise,
a brief period of MVFR cigs is expected Sun morning around sunrise
before breaking up leaving sct-few CU with a S to SW wind.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 629 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014

Scattered showers and storms have developed this afternoon, mainly
across central and northeast MO into west central IL, due to diurnal
heating and destabilization.  Although most of this current activity
will dissipate by sunset, a more organized band of showers and
storms is expected to translate eastward through our forecast area
the evening into the overnight hours.  This convection is ahead of a
shortwave trough currently extending across eastern portions of
Nebraska and Kansas.  The HRRR model moves this band of convection
eastward into central MO just after 7 pm, then into the St Louis
metro area by late evening.  There may be some strong wind gusts
with these storms across northeast and central MO.  The convection
may gradually weaken late this evening and overnight as it shifts
eastward through the St Louis metro area.  Low temperatures will be
similar to last night, generally in the lower 70s.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014

Overall, it appears that the unsettled weather trend will continue
across the region heading into the start of the new week.  Trying to
pin down these periodic storm chances remain the primary forecast
concern.

For Sunday, forecast will reflect the thinking that tonight`s
convection should be exiting southeast sections of the CWA on Sunday
morning; however, if tonight`s complex is quicker than expected,
then these morning PoPs may be too high.  Once this activity exits,
then the question is whether there will be any redevelopment as AMS
destabilizes during the afternoon. Short range guidance based off of
12z UA data does suggest several very weak ripples in the flow that
will impact the area during the afternoon during max heating,
but they are also indicating warming mid level temps along and west
of the Mississippi River that may tend to cap any surface based
redevelopment.  GFS and GEM are a bit more bullish on the increase
of 7h temps over central MO, so have left forecast dry in this area
with slight chance/low chance PoPs elsewhere.

Intense onvection is expected to blossom over the mid-Missouri
Valley Sunday afternoon in the very unstable airmass near the
surface boundary and ahead of the next shortwave, with this activity
quickly growing upscale into a convective complex that will then
work into the mid-Mississippi Valley during the overnight hours.
While there is still uncertainly on the exact location of storm
genesis, all storm propagation vectors from the various 12z
solutions have a fairly pronounced southerly component which
suggests complex try to build into our CWA with time.  Based on
this, I`ve tried to be fairly generous with the southward expansion
of PoPs and have taken mention of thunder to the I44 corridor in
MO/I70 corridor in IL by 12z Monday.

Remnants of Sunday nights convection will exit Monday morning, and
then there should be a bit of a lull before the third round of
convection sweeps across the region (primarily on Monday night) as
main cold front and associated shortwave move into the region and
interact with the very unstable airmass.  Depending upon the amount
of cloud cover, Monday should certainly be one of the warmest day so
far this summer with 850MB temps of 20-22C and gusty southwest
winds, and have maintained going highs in the low-mid 90s over all
but our far NW counties.

Medium range output continues to suggest below average temperatures,
and unusually low summertime humidities, for the first several days
of July.  Guidance remains in good agreement that axis of atypically
deep mid level trof will work into the Great Lakes region, bringing
relatively cool and dry air into the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Several shortwaves rotating through the trof will track across the
region at the same time, which will likely mean a continuation of
some shower and thunderstorm threat in the Tuesday-Wednesday time
frame, mainly over southern sections of the CWA where dynamics will
have the best chance to interact with the lower level
baroclinicity.

Right now it looks like more typical temps/humidity levels will be
returning by the Fourth of July weekend as upper trof works east and
ridging expands from the Rockies into the central CONUS.  Rain
chances look to be quite low in the Thursday-Saturday time
frame.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014

Line of TSRA continues to move ewd this evening. This line shud
weaken as it moves ewd after sunset, but is still anticipated to
impact all terminals. However, the strength of the storms is
uncertain, but expected to remain below severe limits. Otherwise,
a brief period of MVFR cigs is expected Sun morning around sunrise
before breaking up leaving sct-few CU with a S to SW wind.

Tilly

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 1217 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 717 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

Base on current radar and satellite trends lowering PoPs over most
of the CWA. The exception being far northwest MO which will be
closest to scattered convection tied to the remnant MCV over
northeast KS. Little if any lift to the south of the MCV. Models have
continued to do a poor job handling the weak flow summer convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 338 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

Quite a lot to talk about in the short term as several features of
interest will impact the Central Plains/Lwr Missouri Rvr Vly through
the weekend. The first of these is currently on the doorstep so to
speak with a slow moving MCV now positioned over east-central Kansas.
In reality...this feature has been quite impressive in that
this system has maintained itself through much of the day with
regional radars now showing a weak leading line of convection
stretched from near Emporia south to the Kansas/Oklahoma state line.
Recent trends over the past hour or so have indicated the feature is
beginning to decay...however will maintain chc pops across the far
western zones through the remainder of the afternoon. Further
east...very little activity expected through the remainder of the
afternoon however the HRRR continues to advertise some weak "pulsy"
type convection this afternoon and thus will maintain an iso mention
for areas primarily east of the route 65 corridor.

Heading into tonight...numerous near term models to include the HRRR
and Rapid-Refresh suggest convection now firing over southeastern
Nebraska will gradually develop into an MCS before diving southeast
towards our area. As a result...have kept the highest pops over the
northern third of the CWA...with mainly an iso mention south of the
I-70 corridor. As was highlighted earlier today...limited to no
severe wx expected based on very poor wind fields aloft. Of greater
concern will be slow storm movement and possible heavy rainers with
any storms that do develop. PWAT values still remain high this
afternoon as verified on latest Blended TPW and percent of normal
satellite products. Overnight lows should fall into the upper 60s to
lower 70s for most locations.

Overnight convection should begin skirting off to the east on Friday
as main mid-level vort/MCV slowly tracks east with time. As a
result...have advertised an improving trend through the afternoon
from west to east as region becomes enveloped in increasing
subsidence behind departing feature. Another warm one expected with
highs likely climbing into the middle to upper 80s.

Things begin to heat up going into the weekend as large longwave
trough ejects east from the central Rockies. As this occurs...all
short term model guidance in reasonably good agreement that overall
trough orientation will take on a negative tilt...with pressure falls
immediately east of the Front Range resulting in pronounced moisture
and thermal advection north into the central Plains/Lwr Missouri Rvr
Vly. That said...upper winds also forecast to increase as a mid-level
speed max of roughly 45-50 kts rotates into the area during the
afternoon. This combined with a low-level jet of nearly equal
magnitude and a moderately unstable airmass should allow for favorable
conditions for developing convection by Saturday afternoon. One thing
of particular interest this afternoon is the model/s suggesting of
very steep mid-level lapse rates nosing into our area as well-
established EML plume propagates east off the southern
Rockies/Mexican Plateau. One caveat potentially going against robust
development will be the degree of destabilization as
overnight convection across the central High Plains may result in a
decent CI canopy aloft. Late afternoon activity could easily continue
into the overnight period as bulk shear vectors take on a more
"along- parallel" trajectory which could favor a gradual transition
to a linear based system. In any event...something to definitely keep
an eye on as the event nears.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 338 PM CDT THU JUN
26 2014

Subsidence behind Saturday night`s shortwave should keep most of
Sunday dry aside from some potential lingering precipitation across
central Missouri early in the day. However, a secondary weak
shortwave rounding the base of a large upper trough to the north
could bring another round of storms into Iowa and northern Missouri
Sunday night. This activity should develop ahead of a weak front
which will drop into eastern Nebraska Sunday night and slowly sag
south of the I-70 corridor through Tuesday. This will bring
additional chances for thunderstorms to much of the region Monday
and Monday night before the cold front moves south of the forecast
area by Tuesday. Ahead of the front, a warm and humid airmass Sunday
and Monday could send heat index values into the upper 90s to near
100, and also provide quite a bit of instability for a few
potentially strong storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

Weak upper trough and isentropic ascent forcing scattered elevated
showers with a few thunderstorms to form across northwest MO early
this morning. Activity trails back into west central MO. This
convection could well last to daybreak while the leading edge drifts
eastward. Expect most if not all of the convection to dissipate by
mid morning. Will be watching the convection peeling east out of far
northwest KS and southwest NE as it will likely track east and
towards northwest MO. Most likely this activity will dissipate before
reaching this area.

Gusty southerly winds by mid morning lasting till shortly before
sunset. Otherwise, VFR conditions on Friday. Low confidence on seeing
convection at the terminals although can`t rule out isolated hit and
miss convection during the afternoon hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 715 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING PRETTY UNLIKELY FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING HOURS. FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES
COULD CATCH A THUNDERSTORM IF THE LINE OVER BOONE COUNTY AT 7 PM
CAN BACK BUILD A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT AGAIN MOST
AREAS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE HAS SOME CUMULUS
FORMING MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF NEBRASKA WITH A FEW
FURTHER WEST AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW THE WAVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WEAKENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND THE UPPER WAVE. THE HRRR KEEPS THE
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE 4KM WRF HAS IT A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. BOTH OF THEM KEEP THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST OR NORTHEAST. THE MUCAPE IS MAINLY AROUND 3000 J/KG
SO THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION THERE IS A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST LATE TONIGHT.

EXPECT THERE TO BE A BREAK DURING THE MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE MORE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE MUCAPE IS OVER 4000 J/KG
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING...AND THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUASI-ZONAL...BUT BROADLY CYCLONIC FOR
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OVER
MANITOBA WHILE FLAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. WE MAY CATCH THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL JET TOWARD THE NORTHER CWA. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION BY SUNDAY EVENING. WITH A BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDE OF 35 TO 45 KTS AND CAPE LIKELY TO BE GREATER THAN 3000
J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE LIKELY AS
DISCREET SUPERCELLS LIKELY FORMING INTO A LINE THAT WILL HELP
PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH WITH ITS OUTFLOW. THIS LOOKS LIKE AN EARLY
SHOW WITH INCREASED DEWPOINTS ENCOURAGING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT...AGAIN WITH OUTFLOW
ENCOURAGING A PUSH TO THE SOUTH...PROBABLY ENDING THE CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER BY EARLY TO MID-EVENING. SREF SEVERE PARAMETERS
EXPLODE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WANE QUICKLY BY EVENING. TORNADO
PARAMETERS ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...SO AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NOT AS LIKELY INTO THE EVENING. SOME
ELEVATED STORMS COULD POP UP...ESPECIALLY NORTH LATER ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY GONE BY
THEN.

BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH WITH ENOUGH
SINKING AIR TO PREVENT ANY CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH IT
MAY BE A BIT BREEZY...CONSIDERING POTENTIAL HEIGHT
RISES.

WE TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST AND TROUGH
IN THE EAST. WE SEEM TO BE TRANSITIONING TO A WARMER AND DRY PERIOD
AS THE HIGH BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED...MOSTLY SUPPRESSING RAIN
DEVELOPMENT AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
 THAT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH COULD WEAKEN AND
PERHAPS ALLOW SOME WAVES TO AFFECT US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING THE NEXT SHOT AT SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE AID OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

WE HAVE ONE STORM SYSTEM EXITING THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
ANOTHER ENTERING DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF
KGRI AND KEAR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...WESELY




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 211 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST MOVES
INLAND THROUGH SRN CANADA SUNDAY AND SENDS A STRONG PACIFIC COLD
FRONT THROUGH WRN AND NCNTL NEB. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE
FCST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARMER WEATHER DEVELOPS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPS.

RAIN CHANCES DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY.
UNTIL THEN THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ABBREVIATED DISCUSSION AS WE ARE CURRENTLY
WATCHING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MULTIPLE MODES OF CONVECTION CAN BE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND GUSTY OUTFLOW EXISTS.
IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS CELLS MERGE AND CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES FORM. THE
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM RELIES ON A BLEND OF THE 27.12Z NAM AND
NEAR TERM CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS. THE OVERALL IDEA IS THAT
MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST ATOP THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. MVFR STRATUS HAS BACKED INTO THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY...LIMITING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDING FOR A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CAP /SEE
18Z SPECIAL KLBF SOUNDING/. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE STRATUS IS
SLOWLY BREAKING...WITH A BKN DECK NOW GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
A KOGA TO KONL LINE. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD FURTHER DESTABILIZE AS
THE IMPULSE CLOSES AND ADDITIONAL CLEARING OCCURS. RAP GENERATED
SBCAPES APPROACH 3000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON EAST OF A IMPERIAL TO
NORTH PLATTE TO BROKEN BOW LINE...WITH UP TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS REGION. ONCE THE CAP
ERODES...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM IN TWO GENERAL AREAS...FIRST
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST COLORADO...IN THE VICINITY
OF A NORTH TO SOUTH SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW CENTERED
IN FAR WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. IN THIS AREA THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
HAIL INITIALLY...BUT THEN TRANSITION TO A WIND THREAT AS THE
STORMS MERGE INTO A CONVECTIVE LINE AND DCAPES APPROACH 1000 J/KG.
THIS ACTIVITY PROJECTED TO LIFT EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SANDHILLS THIS EVENING.

THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION WILL BE ANTICIPATED INVOF THE
TRIPLE POINT THAT IS SHOWN TO SLOWLY BULGE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.  STORMS IN THIS AREA MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF
TORNADO AS THE SUPERCELLS REMAIN SEMI-DISCRETE.  THE TORNADO THREAT
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO
MULTIPLE CLUSTERS.  IN ADDITION TO THE BRIEF TORNADO
THREAT...HAIL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE VERY LARGE...WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION OF CAPE RESIDES IN THE -10 TO -30C
LAYER...BUT ONCE AGAIN THE VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL BE MAINLY
TIED DURING THE INITIAL SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL STAGE.  THIS
ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS PROJECTED TO MERGE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS
INCREASE TO THE 1.25-1.50" RANGE.  MORE ON THE RAIN THREAT BELOW.

THE FORECAST GENERALLY CALLS FOR WIDESPREAD 50-60% POPS OVER MUCH OF
THE SANDHILLS...WESTERN...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  DIDN/T WANT TO GO MUCH HIGHER AS
CONVECTION...WELL IT/S CONVECTION.

CONCERNING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...THE POTENTIAL MCS/S/ MAY
PROVE TO BE A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AS A COLD POOL
DEVELOPS AND POSSIBLY REINFORCING A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY...FOR
WHICH REDEVELOPMENT/TRAINING WOULD OCCUR AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS.
AGAIN PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 1.25" ATOP EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 1.50" OVER FRONTIER AND CUSTER
COUNTIES.  WE MAY SEE A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT.

FOR SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHIFTS EAST WITH THE
BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT...WITH
WIDESPREAD 80S ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES REVOLVE AROUND
THE PROGRESSION OF RETURN MOISTURE AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT FCST TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY. RETURN MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT MIGHT PRODUCE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. THE
BETTER CHANCES OCCUR SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS THE PACIFIC FRONT SAGS
THRU THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 ARE MORE FAVORED AT THIS TIME.

A FAIRLY STRONG THERMAL RIDGE/CAP DEVELOPS SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO 15C ACROSS SWRN NEB. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE
THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LOW OVER MANITOBA...HEATING AND
MOISTURE...HIGH CAPE AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT SUPPORT SEVERE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT AS THE CAP WEAKENS SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING. POPS TAPER
ACROSS SWRN NEB WITH THE CAP IN PLACE UNTIL 06Z OR LATER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND THEN AMPLIFIES SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
RETURN MOISTURE DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. GIVEN THE WARMING
ALOFT...SLOW MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAKENING WIND FIELDS...ISOLATED
POPS ARE LIMITED TO THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. THE MODELS SUGGEST H500MB
TEMPS WOULD RISE TO -6C TO -8C WHICH WOULD GENERALLY CAP DAYTIME
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES RISE FROM AROUND 80 TUESDAY TO THE 90S BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

LOW CEILINGS DEVELOPED INTO THE VICINITY OF NORTH PLATTE AROUND
15Z. THE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH 21Z THEN
LIFTING TO VFR. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WHERE THUNDERSTORM
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
IN THE KLBF VICINITY NEAR 01Z THEN MOVE EAST AND NORTH THAT WILL
CARRY THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT INTO THE KVTN AREA AFTER 02Z.
BEYOND 06Z THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING OUT FOR GENERAL CLEARING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...JACOBS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 1259 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THIS DYING MCS HAS OBLITERATED THE MVFR STRATUS THAT HAD ENVELOPED
S-CNTRL NEB. WHAT HAPPENS FROM HERE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
REMAINING DENSE MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETARD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH SUGGESTS THE STRATUS WILL NOT REDEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE WAS FAIRLY HIGH THAT MOS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
STRATUS...BUT NOW THAT IT`S GONE I AM NOT SURE WHAT TO DO. THIS
HAS THROWN A BIG WRENCH INTO THE FCST. THE 07Z HRRR DOES HAVE THE
MCS MOVING THRU BUT ALSO INDICATES IFR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP/FILL
BACK IN. THE GOES-R SIMULATED FOG PRODUCT FROM THE NSSL WRF HAS
THE LOW CLOUDS OBSCURED BY ANVIL CIRRUS...BUT BY MIDDAY IT THINS
ENOUGH TO REVEAL STRATUS.

THIS WILL MOSTLY IMPACT THE UPCOMING AVIATION FCST...BUT ALSO HAS
IMPLICATIONS FOR HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

...AFTER THIS MORNINGS RAIN EXITS MORE DRENCHING RAIN IS ON THE
WAY TONIGHT AS MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS CREEP HIGHER IN THE RECORD
BOOKS...

ALOFT: A FAIRLY DEEP SHORTWAVE TROF /-2 STANDARD DEVIATION
HEIGHTS AT 500 MB/ WAS PRESSING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
WAS LOCATED OVER WY/CO/NM EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROF WAS IN THE
EXIT REGION OF A 110 KT JET STREAK. THIS TROF WILL BE SLOW TO
SWEEP THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS. IT WILL BE OVERHEAD SAT MORNING.

SURFACE: THE FCST AREA WAS IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN HIGH PRES
OVER THE ERN USA AND A COOL FRONT ADVANCING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. UPPER FORCING HAS RESULTED IN A DEEP AND MATURE LEE-SIDE
TROF. THE COOL FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE TROF AND EJECT INTO THE
PLAINS TONIGHT TO BE LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL NEB/KS AT DAWN SAT.

EARLY THIS MORNING: WE ARE DEALING WITH ANOTHER NON-SEVERE MCS
AND RAINFALL EVENT.

TODAY: THE MCS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FCST AREA BY 6 AM. HOWEVER...
THE LLJ MAY STILL BE GENERATING NEW CELLS ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF
ITS E- W ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MULTIPLE REVISIONS OF POPS ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS WE ACCT FOR RADAR TRENDS. BELIEVE WE WILL
NEED TO INCREASE POPS SUBSTANTIALLY THRU 9 AM OVER N-CNTRL KS.
CELL REGENERATION THREATENS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMTS.

STRATUS BEGAN DEVELOPING LATE LAST EVENING AND HAS OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF S-CNTRL NEB AS PREDICTED. WHAT THE EFFECTS THE MCS HAS ON
THIS CLOUD COVER IS UNCERTAIN AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

THIS MCS WILL OVERTURN THE TROPOSPHERE...CREATING A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TSTMS LATER TODAY. FOLLOWED THE TREND OF THE PAST
2 DAYS AND KEPT THE DAY DRY PREDOMINANTLY AFTER 9 AM.

I LIKE THE LOOK OF THE GFS/EC SOUNDINGS VS THE NAM WHICH HAVE A
SUBSTANTIAL CAP AND EML MODELED AND THE EC HAS NO DAYTIME QPF
AFTER THIS MORNINGS MCS. PERSISTENT SW MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT
FRESH EML AIR OVER TOP THE MCS COLD POOL...SUPPORTING THE CAP
IDEA. THE 00Z DNR SOUNDING SHOWED YESTERDAYS BL MIXED TO 17K FT
AGL AND THAT IS HEADED HERE.

THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THIS MCS WILL MODIFY THE SURFACE PRES
PATTERN. YESTERDAY WASNT NEARLY AS BREEZY AS EXPECTED. TODAY
LOOKS BREEZY TOO BUT IF MIXING IS HAMPERED BY THE MCS-GENERATED
COLD POOL...THAN OUR WINDS COULD BE TOO HIGH AGAIN.

HIGH TEMPS ARE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE TODAY DUE TO THE STRATUS AND
THE TIMING OF IT LIFTING/MIXING OUT. USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M
TEMPS /CONSRAW/. DID NOT GO AS COOL AS I THINK IT COULD BE. THE
18Z/00Z NAM BOTH HAVE 75-80F...WHICH IS CONCEIVABLE GIVEN WHAT
HAPPENED YESTERDAY WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS.

TONIGHT: EXPECT ANOTHER MCS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
ROLL E INTO THE FCST AREA...FOR 3RD NIGHT IN A ROW. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER DUE TO HI-RES MODELING AND HIGHER SREF PROBABILITIES THAN
WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST 2 NIGHTS.

THE PROGRESSION OF THE COMBINED LEE TROF AND COOL FRONT INTO WRN
NEB/KS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TSTMS TO ERUPT MUCH CLOSER TO THE FCST
AREA...MEANING THAT THE TSTMS WILL ARRIVE SOONER /MID-LATE
EVENING/ THAN THE LAST 2 NIGHTS.

THE LINEAR FORCING MECHANISM AND DEEP SW FLOW WITH A SIGNIFICANT
COMPONENT PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS TSTMS
ERUPTING WITH A QUICK EVOLUTION INTO A SQUALL LINE WHICH SHOULD
THEN RACE E ACROSS THE FCST AREA. POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE
PRECONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE 3000-4000 J/KG WITH A THICK CAPE
PROFILE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FCST 25-30 KTS.

THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND/SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...BUT GIVEN THAT INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR W OF THE FCST
AREA...EXPECT LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE TO ALREADY BE ESTABLISHED
BEFORE THE TSTMS MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA. EMBEDDED STRONGER CELLS
/POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL OR TWO?/ WILL THREATEN LARGE HAIL...BUT THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE WILL EXIST
OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AT 12Z SATURDAY. THIS
SHORT WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST...POSITIONING
ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS BY 00Z SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS
THEN EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A
HINT OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND LONGWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AT 12Z SATURDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA MONDAY ONWARD AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW
ALSO MOVES EAST. THE RESULTANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS OUR
AREA SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART TO START THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST
ACROSS CANADA STARTING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AN ASSOCIATED
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUR AREA THUS
ALLOWING FOR MORE NORTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE THEN SOME HINTS OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RETURN
FLOW STARTING THURSDAY.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION...LEFT OVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN
CWA. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION TOWARDS MIDDAY
SATURDAY...BUT CONTINUED DPVA AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE NEARING THE AREA WILL LIKELY
PROMOTE FURTHER PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION IS
THEN EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH POPS ACROSS MOST ALL
OF THE CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THEN FORECAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS...TRAVELING WITHIN THE DEVELOPING
ZONAL MEAN FLOW OVER OUR AREA...ALONG WITH DECREASING CIN VALUES
COULD PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE
HINTS AT PERIODIC UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS MOVING OVERHEAD
MONDAY ONWARD AS WELL AND ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING PERIODIC
LOW POPS TO VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HARD TO ARGUE WITH OR AGAINST THESE POPS...SO THEY WERE LEFT
UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENHANCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...ALONG
WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WITH THE SHORT WAVE
IN THE AREA...WILL PROMOTE 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUE OF 1000-2500J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH VALUES OF 2000-4000J/KG
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 30KTS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO
OUTLOOK BOTH DAYS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO.
RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL ALSO LIKELY BE PRESENT
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE OF
CONVECTIVE TIMING AND PLACEMENT THAT FAR INTO THE FUTURE...WILL
HOLD OFF FROM ANY MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO FOR MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

SATURDAY COULD POTENTIALLY BE A RELATIVELY COOLER DAY AS MESO-
HIGH SETS UP SHOP OVER THE AREA DUE TO RAINFALL FROM THE NIGHT
BEFORE...AND CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION PERSIST. GIVEN
THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA ON MONDAY...THE
CHANGE IN LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN IMPRESSIVE AND AS A RESULT...SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE
EXPECTED FROM DAY TO DAY SUNDAY ONWARD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 80S TO NEAR 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WE ARE
CURRENTLY DEALING WITH IFR STRATUS AND SOME DRIZZLE IN
SPOTS...WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY LIFT...ONLY TO GIVE WAY TO
POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF A
STRONG LLJ AIMED TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN TIME...WENT AHEAD AN KEPT IFR STRATUS AROUND FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A VCTS BECOMING
POSSIBLE THEREAFTER THROUGH 28/15Z. IN ADDITION TO THE STRATUS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND ONLY LET UP A FEW KTS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ROSSI




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 1229 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

ALTHOUGH CLICHE...PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE MUCH OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THAT IT WILL BE UNSETTLED. THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AS MOST OF THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER SECTIONS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN MOIST.
ALTHOUGH FORECAST AREA DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH...THIS COULD HELP SET THE STAGE FOR
STRONGER STORMS LATE SUNDAY AS SBCAPE VALUES SOAR WITH AFTN
HEATING. THIS COULD THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MORE HEAVY RAIN LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THIS ENERGY IS RELEASED AIDED BY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SLOW
MOVING UPPER TROUGH NEAR NEBR/IA BORDER AT 07Z WITH NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPING NEAR MO RIVER. THERE WERE EVEN A FEW CELLS AT 07Z
TO THE WEST AIDED BY WEAK TRAILING ENERGY WHICH WAS AHEAD OF
LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEBR. A LARGER
UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS PROVIDING FORCING FOR THESE LARGE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO OUR WEST WAS CROSSING ROCKIES FM MT INTO
SOUTH THRU CO/UT BORDER. ACTIVITY COULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVER
THE FA THIS MORNING...EITHER DUE TO CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH
LEAD WEAKER TROUGH ENERGY...OR STORMS TO OUR WEST HOLDING TOGETHER
FED BY LOW LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH SOME DECREASE WAS HINTED AT THIS
AFTN BY 00Z GFS/ECMWF...WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS REMAINING IN
PLACE...ANY BREAKS/HEATING COULD CAUSE RENEWED DEVELOPMENT PER 00Z
NAM. NONETHELESS...WENT WITH A MIDDAY DECREASE IN POPS AND TRENDS
NEXT HOUR OR SO WILL BE MONITORED FOR SHORT TERM CHANGES. COUNTED
ON ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUDS/SHOWERS THIS AFTN SOUTHERN AREAS TO
ALLOW READINGS TO APPROACH THOSE OBSERVED YDA. IF 06Z RAP AND 00Z
ECMWF WOULD VERIFY THESE NUMBERS WOULD PROVE TOO COOL. LINGERING
CLOUDS/PRECIP N COULD KEEP THAT AREA A BIT COOLER AND GENERALLY
MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO PREV MAX TEMPS THERE. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HIGH AND CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATING GENERALLY SLOW
MOVEMENTS...ANY STORM COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN. SOME SEVERE RISK
ALSO PERSISTS...BUT BETTER SHEAR VALUES AND HIGHER CAPE REMAINED
MOSTLY TO THE WEST. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EWD TONIGHT...
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE IN...IF IT EVEN
LEAVES IN THE FIRST PLACE.

AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES THEN CROSSES AREA SATURDAY...HARD TO
DETERMINE IF THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A BREAK IN ACTIVITY AND THUS
HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED MUCH OF THE DAY. HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WILL PERSIST UNTIL MOST OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY
PASSES AS CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE SLOW MOVEMENT...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES.
SHEAR VALUES INCREASE AND IF AREA COULD RECOVER ENOUGH IN THE
AFTN...SEVERE THREAT COULD BE A BIT HIGHER...BUT IT SEEMS SOMEWHAT
CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME.

AS MENTIONED BRIEFLY ABOVE...THIS DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH COULD
CLEAR SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE FA ON SUNDAY.
BETTER HEATING DUE TO EARLY DAY SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL THEN ALLOW HIGHER CAPE VALUES TO DEVELOP. COUPLED WITH
A STRONG UPPER JET ON SOUTH SIDE OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALONG
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...AREA WILL BE PROVIDED WITH EVEN BETTER
SHEAR TO GO ALONG WITH THIS INCREASED CAPE. THIS IN TURN COULD
POINT TO AN ACTIVE LATE SUNDAY AFTN AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT
PERIOD OVER THE FA. FELT 00Z GFS WAS A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH WITH
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTN...WITH THE MORE NORTH PLACEMENT
FROM 00Z NAM/ECMWF PREFERRED. THUS HIGHEST POPS WERE PLACED ACROSS
NRN ZONES SUN AFTN WITH WITH LIKELY POPS MANY AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS RATHER ACTIVE AS SLOW MOVING AND POSSIBLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING MCS DRIFTS SLOWLY ESE. RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE MONDAY...SPECLY CNTRL/S WHERE FRONT MAY INITIALLY HANG UP
AWAITING FOR TRAILING ENERGY BEHIND UPPER TROUGH LIFTING BACK NE
INTO CANADA. MADE NO CHANGE TO MODEL/PREV FCST BLEND OF A DRY
FORECAST TUE/WED...BUT NWRLY FLOW ALOFT...LINGERING MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLE RETURN OF LOW LVL BOUNDARY COULD CHANGE THAT IN LATER
FORECASTS. DID LEAVE SMALL POPS IN NEXT THURSDAY AS BIT BETTER
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION RETURNS TO FA AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING
OVER PLAINS. MADE NO CHANGES TO PRIOR MODEL/PREV FCST TEMPERATURES
WITH MOST AREAS IN 80-85 DEG RANGE FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

SCATTERED MORNING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
A FEW MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP AT ALL 3 TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF THE TAF.
WE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD BREAK IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SCATTERED CU FIELD AS WELL AS A MID LEVEL DECK
INTO THE EVENING. EXPECTING A TSTM COMPLEX TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...KERN



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 649 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

ALTHOUGH CLICHE...PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE MUCH OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THAT IT WILL BE UNSETTLED. THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AS MOST OF THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER SECTIONS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN MOIST.
ALTHOUGH FORECAST AREA DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH...THIS COULD HELP SET THE STAGE FOR
STRONGER STORMS LATE SUNDAY AS SBCAPE VALUES SOAR WITH AFTN
HEATING. THIS COULD THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MORE HEAVY RAIN LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THIS ENERGY IS RELEASED AIDED BY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SLOW
MOVING UPPER TROUGH NEAR NEBR/IA BORDER AT 07Z WITH NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPING NEAR MO RIVER. THERE WERE EVEN A FEW CELLS AT 07Z
TO THE WEST AIDED BY WEAK TRAILING ENERGY WHICH WAS AHEAD OF
LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEBR. A LARGER
UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS PROVIDING FORCING FOR THESE LARGE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO OUR WEST WAS CROSSING ROCKIES FM MT INTO
SOUTH THRU CO/UT BORDER. ACTIVITY COULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVER
THE FA THIS MORNING...EITHER DUE TO CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH
LEAD WEAKER TROUGH ENERGY...OR STORMS TO OUR WEST HOLDING TOGETHER
FED BY LOW LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH SOME DECREASE WAS HINTED AT THIS
AFTN BY 00Z GFS/ECMWF...WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS REMAINING IN
PLACE...ANY BREAKS/HEATING COULD CAUSE RENEWED DEVELOPMENT PER 00Z
NAM. NONETHELESS...WENT WITH A MIDDAY DECREASE IN POPS AND TRENDS
NEXT HOUR OR SO WILL BE MONITORED FOR SHORT TERM CHANGES. COUNTED
ON ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUDS/SHOWERS THIS AFTN SOUTHERN AREAS TO
ALLOW READINGS TO APPROACH THOSE OBSERVED YDA. IF 06Z RAP AND 00Z
ECMWF WOULD VERIFY THESE NUMBERS WOULD PROVE TOO COOL. LINGERING
CLOUDS/PRECIP N COULD KEEP THAT AREA A BIT COOLER AND GENERALLY
MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO PREV MAX TEMPS THERE. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HIGH AND CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATING GENERALLY SLOW
MOVEMENTS...ANY STORM COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN. SOME SEVERE RISK
ALSO PERSISTS...BUT BETTER SHEAR VALUES AND HIGHER CAPE REMAINED
MOSTLY TO THE WEST. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EWD TONIGHT...
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE IN...IF IT EVEN
LEAVES IN THE FIRST PLACE.

AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES THEN CROSSES AREA SATURDAY...HARD TO
DETERMINE IF THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A BREAK IN ACTIVITY AND THUS
HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED MUCH OF THE DAY. HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WILL PERSIST UNTIL MOST OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY
PASSES AS CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE SLOW MOVEMENT...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES.
SHEAR VALUES INCREASE AND IF AREA COULD RECOVER ENOUGH IN THE
AFTN...SEVERE THREAT COULD BE A BIT HIGHER...BUT IT SEEMS SOMEWHAT
CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME.

AS MENTIONED BRIEFLY ABOVE...THIS DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH COULD
CLEAR SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE FA ON SUNDAY.
BETTER HEATING DUE TO EARLY DAY SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL THEN ALLOW HIGHER CAPE VALUES TO DEVELOP. COUPLED WITH
A STRONG UPPER JET ON SOUTH SIDE OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALONG
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...AREA WILL BE PROVIDED WITH EVEN BETTER
SHEAR TO GO ALONG WITH THIS INCREASED CAPE. THIS IN TURN COULD
POINT TO AN ACTIVE LATE SUNDAY AFTN AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT
PERIOD OVER THE FA. FELT 00Z GFS WAS A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH WITH
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTN...WITH THE MORE NORTH PLACEMENT
FROM 00Z NAM/ECMWF PREFERRED. THUS HIGHEST POPS WERE PLACED ACROSS
NRN ZONES SUN AFTN WITH WITH LIKELY POPS MANY AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS RATHER ACTIVE AS SLOW MOVING AND POSSIBLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING MCS DRIFTS SLOWLY ESE. RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE MONDAY...SPECLY CNTRL/S WHERE FRONT MAY INITIALLY HANG UP
AWAITING FOR TRAILING ENERGY BEHIND UPPER TROUGH LIFTING BACK NE
INTO CANADA. MADE NO CHANGE TO MODEL/PREV FCST BLEND OF A DRY
FORECAST TUE/WED...BUT NWRLY FLOW ALOFT...LINGERING MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLE RETURN OF LOW LVL BOUNDARY COULD CHANGE THAT IN LATER
FORECASTS. DID LEAVE SMALL POPS IN NEXT THURSDAY AS BIT BETTER
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION RETURNS TO FA AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING
OVER PLAINS. MADE NO CHANGES TO PRIOR MODEL/PREV FCST TEMPERATURES
WITH MOST AREAS IN 80-85 DEG RANGE FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z AS CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ROLLING THROUGH AFTER 06Z WITH VARIABLE CONDITIONS
REDEVELOPING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...FOBERT




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 634 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THIS DYING MCS HAS OBLITERATED THE MVFR STRATUS THAT HAD ENVELOPED
S-CNTRL NEB. WHAT HAPPENS FROM HERE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
REMAINING DENSE MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETARD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH SUGGESTS THE STRATUS WILL NOT REDEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE WAS FAIRLY HIGH THAT MOS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
STRATUS...BUT NOW THAT IT`S GONE I AM NOT SURE WHAT TO DO. THIS
HAS THROWN A BIG WRENCH INTO THE FCST. THE 07Z HRRR DOES HAVE THE
MCS MOVING THRU BUT ALSO INDICATES IFR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP/FILL
BACK IN. THE GOES-R SIMULATED FOG PRODUCT FROM THE NSSL WRF HAS
THE LOW CLOUDS OBSCURED BY ANVIL CIRRUS...BUT BY MIDDAY IT THINS
ENOUGH TO REVEAL STRATUS.

THIS WILL MOSTLY IMPACT THE UPCOMING AVIATION FCST...BUT ALSO HAS
IMPLICATIONS FOR HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

...AFTER THIS MORNINGS RAIN EXITS MORE DRENCHING RAIN IS ON THE
WAY TONIGHT AS MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS CREEP HIGHER IN THE RECORD
BOOKS...

ALOFT: A FAIRLY DEEP SHORTWAVE TROF /-2 STANDARD DEVIATION
HEIGHTS AT 500 MB/ WAS PRESSING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
WAS LOCATED OVER WY/CO/NM EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROF WAS IN THE
EXIT REGION OF A 110 KT JET STREAK. THIS TROF WILL BE SLOW TO
SWEEP THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS. IT WILL BE OVERHEAD SAT MORNING.

SURFACE: THE FCST AREA WAS IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN HIGH PRES
OVER THE ERN USA AND A COOL FRONT ADVANCING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. UPPER FORCING HAS RESULTED IN A DEEP AND MATURE LEE-SIDE
TROF. THE COOL FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE TROF AND EJECT INTO THE
PLAINS TONIGHT TO BE LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL NEB/KS AT DAWN SAT.

EARLY THIS MORNING: WE ARE DEALING WITH ANOTHER NON-SEVERE MCS
AND RAINFALL EVENT.

TODAY: THE MCS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FCST AREA BY 6 AM. HOWEVER...
THE LLJ MAY STILL BE GENERATING NEW CELLS ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF
ITS E- W ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MULTIPLE REVISIONS OF POPS ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS WE ACCT FOR RADAR TRENDS. BELIEVE WE WILL
NEED TO INCREASE POPS SUBSTANTIALLY THRU 9 AM OVER N-CNTRL KS.
CELL REGENERATION THREATENS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMTS.

STRATUS BEGAN DEVELOPING LATE LAST EVENING AND HAS OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF S-CNTRL NEB AS PREDICTED. WHAT THE EFFECTS THE MCS HAS ON
THIS CLOUD COVER IS UNCERTAIN AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

THIS MCS WILL OVERTURN THE TROPOSPHERE...CREATING A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TSTMS LATER TODAY. FOLLOWED THE TREND OF THE PAST
2 DAYS AND KEPT THE DAY DRY PREDOMINANTLY AFTER 9 AM.

I LIKE THE LOOK OF THE GFS/EC SOUNDINGS VS THE NAM WHICH HAVE A
SUBSTANTIAL CAP AND EML MODELED AND THE EC HAS NO DAYTIME QPF
AFTER THIS MORNINGS MCS. PERSISTENT SW MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT
FRESH EML AIR OVER TOP THE MCS COLD POOL...SUPPORTING THE CAP
IDEA. THE 00Z DNR SOUNDING SHOWED YESTERDAYS BL MIXED TO 17K FT
AGL AND THAT IS HEADED HERE.

THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THIS MCS WILL MODIFY THE SURFACE PRES
PATTERN. YESTERDAY WASNT NEARLY AS BREEZY AS EXPECTED. TODAY
LOOKS BREEZY TOO BUT IF MIXING IS HAMPERED BY THE MCS-GENERATED
COLD POOL...THAN OUR WINDS COULD BE TOO HIGH AGAIN.

HIGH TEMPS ARE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE TODAY DUE TO THE STRATUS AND
THE TIMING OF IT LIFTING/MIXING OUT. USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M
TEMPS /CONSRAW/. DID NOT GO AS COOL AS I THINK IT COULD BE. THE
18Z/00Z NAM BOTH HAVE 75-80F...WHICH IS CONCEIVABLE GIVEN WHAT
HAPPENED YESTERDAY WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS.

TONIGHT: EXPECT ANOTHER MCS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
ROLL E INTO THE FCST AREA...FOR 3RD NIGHT IN A ROW. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER DUE TO HI-RES MODELING AND HIGHER SREF PROBABILITIES THAN
WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST 2 NIGHTS.

THE PROGRESSION OF THE COMBINED LEE TROF AND COOL FRONT INTO WRN
NEB/KS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TSTMS TO ERUPT MUCH CLOSER TO THE FCST
AREA...MEANING THAT THE TSTMS WILL ARRIVE SOONER /MID-LATE
EVENING/ THAN THE LAST 2 NIGHTS.

THE LINEAR FORCING MECHANISM AND DEEP SW FLOW WITH A SIGNIFICANT
COMPONENT PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS TSTMS
ERUPTING WITH A QUICK EVOLUTION INTO A SQUALL LINE WHICH SHOULD
THEN RACE E ACROSS THE FCST AREA. POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE
PRECONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE 3000-4000 J/KG WITH A THICK CAPE
PROFILE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FCST 25-30 KTS.

THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND/SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...BUT GIVEN THAT INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR W OF THE FCST
AREA...EXPECT LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE TO ALREADY BE ESTABLISHED
BEFORE THE TSTMS MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA. EMBEDDED STRONGER CELLS
/POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL OR TWO?/ WILL THREATEN LARGE HAIL...BUT THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE WILL EXIST
OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AT 12Z SATURDAY. THIS
SHORT WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST...POSITIONING
ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS BY 00Z SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS
THEN EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A
HINT OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND LONGWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AT 12Z SATURDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA MONDAY ONWARD AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW
ALSO MOVES EAST. THE RESULTANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS OUR
AREA SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART TO START THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST
ACROSS CANADA STARTING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AN ASSOCIATED
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUR AREA THUS
ALLOWING FOR MORE NORTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE THEN SOME HINTS OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RETURN
FLOW STARTING THURSDAY.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION...LEFT OVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN
CWA. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION TOWARDS MIDDAY
SATURDAY...BUT CONTINUED DPVA AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE NEARING THE AREA WILL LIKELY
PROMOTE FURTHER PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION IS
THEN EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH POPS ACROSS MOST ALL
OF THE CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THEN FORECAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS...TRAVELING WITHIN THE DEVELOPING
ZONAL MEAN FLOW OVER OUR AREA...ALONG WITH DECREASING CIN VALUES
COULD PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE
HINTS AT PERIODIC UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS MOVING OVERHEAD
MONDAY ONWARD AS WELL AND ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING PERIODIC
LOW POPS TO VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HARD TO ARGUE WITH OR AGAINST THESE POPS...SO THEY WERE LEFT
UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENHANCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...ALONG
WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WITH THE SHORT WAVE
IN THE AREA...WILL PROMOTE 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUE OF 1000-2500J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH VALUES OF 2000-4000J/KG
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 30KTS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO
OUTLOOK BOTH DAYS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO.
RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL ALSO LIKELY BE PRESENT
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE OF
CONVECTIVE TIMING AND PLACEMENT THAT FAR INTO THE FUTURE...WILL
HOLD OFF FROM ANY MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO FOR MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

SATURDAY COULD POTENTIALLY BE A RELATIVELY COOLER DAY AS MESO-
HIGH SETS UP SHOP OVER THE AREA DUE TO RAINFALL FROM THE NIGHT
BEFORE...AND CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION PERSIST. GIVEN
THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA ON MONDAY...THE
CHANGE IN LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN IMPRESSIVE AND AS A RESULT...SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE
EXPECTED FROM DAY TO DAY SUNDAY ONWARD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 80S TO NEAR 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z GRI TAF THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

TODAY: THE MVFR STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT HAS DISSIPATED
FROM THE DYING TSTM COMPLEX MOVING THRU. THIS SIGNIFICANTLY
COMPLICATES THE FCST BECAUSE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT KNOW THAT
IT/S GONE. FOR NOW THE PLAYED IT VFR IN THE TAF...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL THAT STRATUS COULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP THIS MORNING. WINDS
WERE VARIABLE BEHIND THE RAIN BUT SHOULD ORGANIZE FROM THE S-SSE
AND GUST 25 TO POTENTIALLY 33 KTS.

CONFIDENCE: LOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT.

TONIGHT: VFR TO START...BUT A PERIOD OF IFR TSTMS APPEARS LIKELY
WITH POTENTIAL G50 KTS. SSE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND THEN BECOME
VARIABLE BEHIND THE EXPECTED TSTM SQUALL LINE.

CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 545 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THIS DYING MCS HAS OBLITERATED THE MVFR STRATUS THAT HAD ENVELOPED
S-CNTRL NEB. WHAT HAPPENS FROM HERE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
REMAINING DENSE MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETARD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH SUGGESTS THE STRATUS WILL NOT REDEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE WAS FAIRLY HIGH THAT MOS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
STRATUS...BUT NOW THAT IT`S GONE I AM NOT SURE WHAT TO DO. THIS
HAS THROWN A BIG WRENCH INTO THE FCST. THE 07Z HRRR DOES HAVE THE
MCS MOVING THRU BUT ALSO INDICATES IFR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP/FILL
BACK IN. THIS WILL MOSTLY IMPACT THE UPCOMING AVIATION FCST...BUT
ALSO HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONT TO
MONITOR...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

...AFTER THIS MORNINGS RAIN EXITS MORE DRENCHING RAIN IS ON THE
WAY TONIGHT AS MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS CREEP HIGHER IN THE RECORD
BOOKS...

ALOFT: A FAIRLY DEEP SHORTWAVE TROF /-2 STANDARD DEVIATION
HEIGHTS AT 500 MB/ WAS PRESSING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
WAS LOCATED OVER WY/CO/NM EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROF WAS IN THE
EXIT REGION OF A 110 KT JET STREAK. THIS TROF WILL BE SLOW TO
SWEEP THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS. IT WILL BE OVERHEAD SAT MORNING.

SURFACE: THE FCST AREA WAS IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN HIGH PRES
OVER THE ERN USA AND A COOL FRONT ADVANCING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. UPPER FORCING HAS RESULTED IN A DEEP AND MATURE LEE-SIDE
TROF. THE COOL FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE TROF AND EJECT INTO THE
PLAINS TONIGHT TO BE LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL NEB/KS AT DAWN SAT.

EARLY THIS MORNING: WE ARE DEALING WITH ANOTHER NON-SEVERE MCS
AND RAINFALL EVENT.

TODAY: THE MCS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FCST AREA BY 6 AM. HOWEVER...
THE LLJ MAY STILL BE GENERATING NEW CELLS ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF
ITS E- W ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MULTIPLE REVISIONS OF POPS ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS WE ACCT FOR RADAR TRENDS. BELIEVE WE WILL
NEED TO INCREASE POPS SUBSTANTIALLY THRU 9 AM OVER N-CNTRL KS.
CELL REGENERATION THREATENS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMTS.

STRATUS BEGAN DEVELOPING LATE LAST EVENING AND HAS OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF S-CNTRL NEB AS PREDICTED. WHAT THE EFFECTS THE MCS HAS ON
THIS CLOUD COVER IS UNCERTAIN AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

THIS MCS WILL OVERTURN THE TROPOSPHERE...CREATING A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TSTMS LATER TODAY. FOLLOWED THE TREND OF THE PAST
2 DAYS AND KEPT THE DAY DRY PREDOMINANTLY AFTER 9 AM.

I LIKE THE LOOK OF THE GFS/EC SOUNDINGS VS THE NAM WHICH HAVE A
SUBSTANTIAL CAP AND EML MODELED AND THE EC HAS NO DAYTIME QPF
AFTER THIS MORNINGS MCS. PERSISTENT SW MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT
FRESH EML AIR OVER TOP THE MCS COLD POOL...SUPPORTING THE CAP
IDEA. THE 00Z DNR SOUNDING SHOWED YESTERDAYS BL MIXED TO 17K FT
AGL AND THAT IS HEADED HERE.

THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THIS MCS WILL MODIFY THE SURFACE PRES
PATTERN. YESTERDAY WASNT NEARLY AS BREEZY AS EXPECTED. TODAY
LOOKS BREEZY TOO BUT IF MIXING IS HAMPERED BY THE MCS-GENERATED
COLD POOL...THAN OUR WINDS COULD BE TOO HIGH AGAIN.

HIGH TEMPS ARE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE TODAY DUE TO THE STRATUS AND
THE TIMING OF IT LIFTING/MIXING OUT. USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M
TEMPS /CONSRAW/. DID NOT GO AS COOL AS I THINK IT COULD BE. THE
18Z/00Z NAM BOTH HAVE 75-80F...WHICH IS CONCEIVABLE GIVEN WHAT
HAPPENED YESTERDAY WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS.

TONIGHT: EXPECT ANOTHER MCS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
ROLL E INTO THE FCST AREA...FOR 3RD NIGHT IN A ROW. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER DUE TO HI-RES MODELING AND HIGHER SREF PROBABILITIES THAN
WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST 2 NIGHTS.

THE PROGRESSION OF THE COMBINED LEE TROF AND COOL FRONT INTO WRN
NEB/KS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TSTMS TO ERUPT MUCH CLOSER TO THE FCST
AREA...MEANING THAT THE TSTMS WILL ARRIVE SOONER /MID-LATE
EVENING/ THAN THE LAST 2 NIGHTS.

THE LINEAR FORCING MECHANISM AND DEEP SW FLOW WITH A SIGNIFICANT
COMPONENT PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS TSTMS
ERUPTING WITH A QUICK EVOLUTION INTO A SQUALL LINE WHICH SHOULD
THEN RACE E ACROSS THE FCST AREA. POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE
PRECONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE 3000-4000 J/KG WITH A THICK CAPE
PROFILE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FCST 25-30 KTS.

THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND/SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...BUT GIVEN THAT INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR W OF THE FCST
AREA...EXPECT LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE TO ALREADY BE ESTABLISHED
BEFORE THE TSTMS MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA. EMBEDDED STRONGER CELLS
/POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL OR TWO?/ WILL THREATEN LARGE HAIL...BUT THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE WILL EXIST
OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AT 12Z SATURDAY. THIS
SHORT WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST...POSITIONING
ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS BY 00Z SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS
THEN EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A
HINT OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND LONGWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AT 12Z SATURDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA MONDAY ONWARD AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW
ALSO MOVES EAST. THE RESULTANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS OUR
AREA SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART TO START THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST
ACROSS CANADA STARTING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AN ASSOCIATED
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUR AREA THUS
ALLOWING FOR MORE NORTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE THEN SOME HINTS OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RETURN
FLOW STARTING THURSDAY.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION...LEFT OVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN
CWA. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION TOWARDS MIDDAY
SATURDAY...BUT CONTINUED DPVA AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE NEARING THE AREA WILL LIKELY
PROMOTE FURTHER PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION IS
THEN EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH POPS ACROSS MOST ALL
OF THE CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THEN FORECAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS...TRAVELING WITHIN THE DEVELOPING
ZONAL MEAN FLOW OVER OUR AREA...ALONG WITH DECREASING CIN VALUES
COULD PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE
HINTS AT PERIODIC UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS MOVING OVERHEAD
MONDAY ONWARD AS WELL AND ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING PERIODIC
LOW POPS TO VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HARD TO ARGUE WITH OR AGAINST THESE POPS...SO THEY WERE LEFT
UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENHANCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...ALONG
WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WITH THE SHORT WAVE
IN THE AREA...WILL PROMOTE 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUE OF 1000-2500J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH VALUES OF 2000-4000J/KG
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 30KTS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO
OUTLOOK BOTH DAYS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO.
RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL ALSO LIKELY BE PRESENT
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE OF
CONVECTIVE TIMING AND PLACEMENT THAT FAR INTO THE FUTURE...WILL
HOLD OFF FROM ANY MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO FOR MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

SATURDAY COULD POTENTIALLY BE A RELATIVELY COOLER DAY AS MESO-
HIGH SETS UP SHOP OVER THE AREA DUE TO RAINFALL FROM THE NIGHT
BEFORE...AND CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION PERSIST. GIVEN
THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA ON MONDAY...THE
CHANGE IN LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN IMPRESSIVE AND AS A RESULT...SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE
EXPECTED FROM DAY TO DAY SUNDAY ONWARD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 80S TO NEAR 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z GRI TAF THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

REST OF TONIGHT: MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING AND SHOULD
INVADE GRI SHORTLY. MODEL GUIDANCE FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES
SUGGEST CIGS WILL DECAY FURTHER TO IFR 09Z-12Z. WE ARE MONITORING
TSTM CLUSTERS UPSTREAM AND A PERIOD OF TSTMS COULD HIT GRI BEFORE
DAWN WITH IFR VSBYS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SO IT WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS TAF. WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS. SE-SSE WINDS WILL
REMAIN 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES. LLWS
WILL BE A PROBLEM.

CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO TSTM POTENTIAL AND HEIGHT/TIMING OF CHANGES
IN CEILING.

FRI: IFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY SCT TO
VFR STRATOCU. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM AFTER 20Z...BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF. SE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AND GUST 28 TO POSSIBLY 33 KTS AT TIMES.

CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO HEIGHT/TIMING CHANGES IN CEILING.

FRI EVE: VFR WITH A FAIRLY DECENT PROBABILITY OF IFR TSTMS AFTER
03Z. SE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES.

CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO TSTM POTENTIAL AND TIMING.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 247 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

ALTHOUGH CLICHE...PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE MUCH OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THAT IT WILL BE UNSETTLED. THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AS MOST OF THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER SECTIONS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN MOIST.
ALTHOUGH FORECAST AREA DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH...THIS COULD HELP SET THE STAGE FOR
STRONGER STORMS LATE SUNDAY AS SBCAPE VALUES SOAR WITH AFTN
HEATING. THIS COULD THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MORE HEAVY RAIN LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THIS ENERGY IS RELEASED AIDED BY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SLOW
MOVING UPPER TROUGH NEAR NEBR/IA BORDER AT 07Z WITH NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPING NEAR MO RIVER. THERE WERE EVEN A FEW CELLS AT 07Z
TO THE WEST AIDED BY WEAK TRAILING ENERGY WHICH WAS AHEAD OF
LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEBR. A LARGER
UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS PROVIDING FORCING FOR THESE LARGE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO OUR WEST WAS CROSSING ROCKIES FM MT INTO
SOUTH THRU CO/UT BORDER. ACTIVITY COULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVER
THE FA THIS MORNING...EITHER DUE TO CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH
LEAD WEAKER TROUGH ENERGY...OR STORMS TO OUR WEST HOLDING TOGETHER
FED BY LOW LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH SOME DECREASE WAS HINTED AT THIS
AFTN BY 00Z GFS/ECMWF...WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS REMAINING IN
PLACE...ANY BREAKS/HEATING COULD CAUSE RENEWED DEVELOPMENT PER 00Z
NAM. NONETHELESS...WENT WITH A MIDDAY DECREASE IN POPS AND TRENDS
NEXT HOUR OR SO WILL BE MONITORED FOR SHORT TERM CHANGES. COUNTED
ON ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUDS/SHOWERS THIS AFTN SOUTHERN AREAS TO
ALLOW READINGS TO APPROACH THOSE OBSERVED YDA. IF 06Z RAP AND 00Z
ECMWF WOULD VERIFY THESE NUMBERS WOULD PROVE TOO COOL. LINGERING
CLOUDS/PRECIP N COULD KEEP THAT AREA A BIT COOLER AND GENERALLY
MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO PREV MAX TEMPS THERE. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HIGH AND CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATING GENERALLY SLOW
MOVEMENTS...ANY STORM COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN. SOME SEVERE RISK
ALSO PERSISTS...BUT BETTER SHEAR VALUES AND HIGHER CAPE REMAINED
MOSTLY TO THE WEST. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EWD TONIGHT...
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE IN...IF IT EVEN
LEAVES IN THE FIRST PLACE.

AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES THEN CROSSES AREA SATURDAY...HARD TO
DETERMINE IF THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A BREAK IN ACTIVITY AND THUS
HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED MUCH OF THE DAY. HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WILL PERSIST UNTIL MOST OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY
PASSES AS CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE SLOW MOVEMENT...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES.
SHEAR VALUES INCREASE AND IF AREA COULD RECOVER ENOUGH IN THE
AFTN...SEVERE THREAT COULD BE A BIT HIGHER...BUT IT SEEMS SOMEWHAT
CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME.

AS MENTIONED BRIEFLY ABOVE...THIS DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH COULD
CLEAR SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE FA ON SUNDAY.
BETTER HEATING DUE TO EARLY DAY SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL THEN ALLOW HIGHER CAPE VALUES TO DEVELOP. COUPLED WITH
A STRONG UPPER JET ON SOUTH SIDE OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALONG
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...AREA WILL BE PROVIDED WITH EVEN BETTER
SHEAR TO GO ALONG WITH THIS INCREASED CAPE. THIS IN TURN COULD
POINT TO AN ACTIVE LATE SUNDAY AFTN AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT
PERIOD OVER THE FA. FELT 00Z GFS WAS A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH WITH
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTN...WITH THE MORE NORTH PLACEMENT
FROM 00Z NAM/ECMWF PREFERRED. THUS HIGHEST POPS WERE PLACED ACROSS
NRN ZONES SUN AFTN WITH WITH LIKELY POPS MANY AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS RATHER ACTIVE AS SLOW MOVING AND POSSIBLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING MCS DRIFTS SLOWLY ESE. RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE MONDAY...SPECLY CNTRL/S WHERE FRONT MAY INITIALLY HANG UP
AWAITING FOR TRAILING ENERGY BEHIND UPPER TROUGH LIFTING BACK NE
INTO CANADA. MADE NO CHANGE TO MODEL/PREV FCST BLEND OF A DRY
FORECAST TUE/WED...BUT NWRLY FLOW ALOFT...LINGERING MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLE RETURN OF LOW LVL BOUNDARY COULD CHANGE THAT IN LATER
FORECASTS. DID LEAVE SMALL POPS IN NEXT THURSDAY AS BIT BETTER
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION RETURNS TO FA AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING
OVER PLAINS. MADE NO CHANGES TO PRIOR MODEL/PREV FCST TEMPERATURES
WITH MOST AREAS IN 80-85 DEG RANGE FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUES...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP
MENTION OUT OF THE TAF SITES FOR NOW. POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE
FOR STORMS IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT TO MORNING HOURS...AND/OR IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS...BUT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
COVERAGE AND LOCATION PRECLUDES MENTION. HAVE INDICATED POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR VIS NEAR DAWN AS TEMPERATURES FALL TOWARD DEWPOINTS...BUT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
DIURNALLY IN THE MID-MORNING AND DECREASE DIURNALLY AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...MAYES




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 151 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THE STORMS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA APPEAR TO BE MOVING INTO MORE
STABLE SURFACE-BASED CONDITIONS AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING. AS A RESULT...WE WILL LET SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 359
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 2 AM CDT. OF COURSE...NEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE EVENING FORECAST TO ADJUST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NE. HRRR SUGGESTING A COMPLEX
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST AND MOVING EAST LATER THIS EVENING.
CURRENT RADAR EVOLVING CLOSE TO HRRR PROGS AND THIS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE TEMPS LEFT PRETTY MUCH AS IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS RESIDE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO. ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE BASED
CAPES RUNNING IN THE 3000 TO 4500 J/KG RANGE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S. LITTLE CAPPING INVERSION LEFT AND EXPECT THAT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST FORCING REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT EXPECT A CLUSTER OR TWO OF STORMS TO MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...AIDED BY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 KTS.
AGAIN BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING TO REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...SO
WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW. OTHERWISE A VERY MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES DUE TO HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE/HUMIDITY.

THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE FAVORABLE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT /DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S/ SHOULD YIELD MLCAPE IN
EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG. A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BE IN PLACE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COOLING ALOFT ALSO SPREADS
INTO THE AREA AFTER NOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DISTURBANCE. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR MERRIMAN TO OGALLALA SHOULD
BE THE FOCUS FOR RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND 3 OR 4 PM
CENTRAL TIME. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE BACKED TO THE
SOUTHEAST...VEERING TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT. INITIAL STORM MODE WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT. RATHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AT FIRST. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND FASTER
MOVING AS COLD POOL ALOFT EVOLVES AND STORMS SPREAD EAST FRIDAY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. A
RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS CREATING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 8.5
C/KM. SCATTERED COVERAGE WEST OF HWY 83 EARLY IN THE EVENING
SHOULD QUICKLY CONGEAL INTO A SMALL MCS. WHILE LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN EARLY EVENING...THIS
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A DAMAGING WIND/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
PUSH EAST OF THE FA FOR DRY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN
INTO SRN MANITOBA AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AGAIN BE STEEP AND AS CAP
WEAKENS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM MINNESOTA INTO NERN AND CENTRAL NEBR. THE ECMWF MODEL
IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS SUN AFTN/EVENING TO AS HIGH AS 30 TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF FA.

DRY AND PLEASANT MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 80S UNDER
INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN AIRMASS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN WESTERN NEBRASKA COULD INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT THREE HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THEN...DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...A NEW ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WEST OF
MRR-OGA-IML SPREADING TO VTN-TIF-LBF AFTER 00Z. WITH EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...WIND GUSTS OF 45KT OR HIGHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH HAIL 1/2 INCH DIAMETER OR HIGHER. LOCALIZED HAIL SIZES
MAY APPROACH 2 INCHES DIAMETER...THOUGH THOSE CASES WILL BE
ISOLATED.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...SPRINGER







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 113 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

WITHIN THE PAST HALF HOUR THE TWO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS HAVE
ACCELERATED TO THE E AT 43 MPH. POPS/WX/SKY WERE ALL UPDATED TO
TIME THESE STORMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

AN ESTF UPDATE HAS BEEN OUT SINCE 1143 PM. OBSERVED TEMPS WERE
RUNNING COOLER THAN FCST W OF THE TRI-CITIES...BUT WE HAVE FCST
TEMPS BACK ON TRACK NOW.

FOG CHANNEL SATELLITE SHOWS MVFR CLOUDS DEVELOPING/EXPANDING OVER
S-CNTRL NEB. BASED ON MOS AND MULTI-MODEL VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS
THIS STRATUS SHOULD CONT TO EXPAND WITH LOWERING CIGS THRU THE
NIGHT.

WE CONT TO MONITOR THE DUAL BOWING LINE TSTMS SEGMENTS OVER SW NEB
AND NW KS. NOTHING SVR NOW. PROPAGATION APPEARS TO BE NNE. SOME OF
THESE STORMS OR THEIR REMNANTS SHOULD SCRAPE THE WRN PORTIONS OF
THE FCST AREA AFTER 2 AM. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF COULD
MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THESE TSTMS TO CONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

A SLOWLY DEPARTING MCV IS CURRENTLY EXITING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON ITS BACK
EDGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
MCV...COULD SEE A BRIEF STRONG STORM...WITH PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 14.

AFTER THIS MCV EXITS THE REGION...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WHERE
SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND
SHIFT EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH GOOD
CLEARING TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY HAS BUILT ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...WITH 3000-4000 JOULES OF CAPE...AND
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION OF THIS
CONVECTION...DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS A 50 KT LLJ SETS UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...LIKED THE HRRR SOLUTION THE BEST...AND KEPT THE HIGHEST
POPS TO THE WEST PRIOR TO 06Z...SPREADING CHANCES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THEREAFTER.

FOR FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT WITH THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHIFTING EASTWARD AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THIS TROUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT THE SHOT
FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...ALBEIT BETTER
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE AFT 00Z FRIDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURE WISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH BOTH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY EXPECTED TO RUN VERY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO LIE WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE ROUGHLY FIRST 24 HRS.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD /FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODELS HAVE
SHOWN MUCH CHANGE WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS HAVING SHIFTED ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS...AND RIDGING OVER
THE E/SERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
EXTENDED FROM WRN ND DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TX. MAIN FOCUS IS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
OFF TO THE WEST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL EVENTUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER LLJ...BUT VARY SOME ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE BETTER CONVERGENCE/LIFT...SO THE PLACEMENT OF ITS QPF VARIES A
BIT AS WELL. SAW NO REASON NOT TO KEEP THE LIKELY POPS GOING...BUT
DID HOLD BACK THE MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHER POPS UNTIL LATER IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING MAY SEE A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE ACTIVITY STILL WORKING ITS WAY EAST. WITH THE MODELS
COMBO OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND THE CWA REMAINS IN THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK
OUTLOOK. AS WE GET INTO SAT/SAT NIGHT...ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION...AS
WILL ANY REMNANT SFC BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND. MODELS HAVE PRECIP
LINGERING AROUND A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY...BUT WOULD THINK THERE
WOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK AT SOME POINT DURING THE MORNING...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE
WITH THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL AROUND...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF THE CWA.

THINK THAT ACTIVITY SATURDAY EVENING WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA...SO
AM KEEPING THE POST 06Z HOURS DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...AND KEPT THOSE DRY CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BY 12Z SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING MORE ZONAL FLOW HAVING SET UP ACROSS THE AREA...AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER SASKATCHEWAN.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SFC FRONT SLIDING SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW/SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
START PUSHING THE BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AS WE
GET INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...AND HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA /MAINLY SC NEB/.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...AT THIS POINT SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z GRI TAF THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

REST OF TONIGHT: MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING AND SHOULD
INVADE GRI SHORTLY. MODEL GUIDANCE FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES
SUGGEST CIGS WILL DECAY FURTHER TO IFR 09Z-12Z. WE ARE MONITORING
TSTM CLUSTERS UPSTREAM AND A PERIOD OF TSTMS COULD HIT GRI BEFORE
DAWN WITH IFR VSBYS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SO IT WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS TAF. WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS. SE-SSE WINDS WILL
REMAIN 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES. LLWS
WILL BE A PROBLEM.

CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO TSTM POTENTIAL AND HEIGHT/TIMING OF CHANGES
IN CEILING.

FRI: IFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY SCT TO
VFR STRATOCU. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM AFTER 20Z...BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF. SE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AND GUST 28 TO POSSIBLY 33 KTS AT TIMES.

CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO HEIGHT/TIMING CHANGES IN CEILING.

FRI EVE: VFR WITH A FAIRLY DECENT PROBABILITY OF IFR TSTMS AFTER
03Z. SE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES.

CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO TSTM POTENTIAL AND TIMING.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HALBLAUB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 1240 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

AN ESTF UPDATE HAS BEEN OUT SINCE 1143 PM. OBSERVED TEMPS WERE
RUNNING COOLER THAN FCST W OF THE TRI-CITIES...BUT WE HAVE FCST
TEMPS BACK ON TRACK NOW.

FOG CHANNEL SATELLITE SHOWS MVFR CLOUDS DEVELOPING/EXPANDING OVER
S-CNTRL NEB. BASED ON MOS AND MULTI-MODEL VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS
THIS STRATUS SHOULD CONT TO EXPAND WITH LOWERING CIGS THRU THE
NIGHT.

WE CONT TO MONITOR THE DUAL BOWING LINE TSTMS SEGMENTS OVER SW NEB
AND NW KS. NOTHING SVR NOW. PROPAGATION APPEARS TO BE NNE. SOME OF
THESE STORMS OR THEIR REMNANTS SHOULD SCRAPE THE WRN PORTIONS OF
THE FCST AREA AFTER 2 AM. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF COULD
MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THESE TSTMS TO CONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

A SLOWLY DEPARTING MCV IS CURRENTLY EXITING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON ITS BACK
EDGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
MCV...COULD SEE A BRIEF STRONG STORM...WITH PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 14.

AFTER THIS MCV EXITS THE REGION...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WHERE
SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND
SHIFT EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH GOOD
CLEARING TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY HAS BUILT ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...WITH 3000-4000 JOULES OF CAPE...AND
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION OF THIS
CONVECTION...DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS A 50 KT LLJ SETS UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...LIKED THE HRRR SOLUTION THE BEST...AND KEPT THE HIGHEST
POPS TO THE WEST PRIOR TO 06Z...SPREADING CHANCES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THEREAFTER.

FOR FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT WITH THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHIFTING EASTWARD AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THIS TROUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT THE SHOT
FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...ALBEIT BETTER
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE AFT 00Z FRIDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURE WISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH BOTH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY EXPECTED TO RUN VERY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO LIE WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE ROUGHLY FIRST 24 HRS.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD /FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODELS HAVE
SHOWN MUCH CHANGE WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS HAVING SHIFTED ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS...AND RIDGING OVER
THE E/SERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
EXTENDED FROM WRN ND DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TX. MAIN FOCUS IS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
OFF TO THE WEST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL EVENTUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER LLJ...BUT VARY SOME ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE BETTER CONVERGENCE/LIFT...SO THE PLACEMENT OF ITS QPF VARIES A
BIT AS WELL. SAW NO REASON NOT TO KEEP THE LIKELY POPS GOING...BUT
DID HOLD BACK THE MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHER POPS UNTIL LATER IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING MAY SEE A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE ACTIVITY STILL WORKING ITS WAY EAST. WITH THE MODELS
COMBO OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND THE CWA REMAINS IN THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK
OUTLOOK. AS WE GET INTO SAT/SAT NIGHT...ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION...AS
WILL ANY REMNANT SFC BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND. MODELS HAVE PRECIP
LINGERING AROUND A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY...BUT WOULD THINK THERE
WOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK AT SOME POINT DURING THE MORNING...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE
WITH THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL AROUND...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF THE CWA.

THINK THAT ACTIVITY SATURDAY EVENING WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA...SO
AM KEEPING THE POST 06Z HOURS DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...AND KEPT THOSE DRY CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BY 12Z SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING MORE ZONAL FLOW HAVING SET UP ACROSS THE AREA...AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER SASKATCHEWAN.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SFC FRONT SLIDING SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW/SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
START PUSHING THE BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AS WE
GET INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...AND HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA /MAINLY SC NEB/.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...AT THIS POINT SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z GRI TAF THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

REST OF TONIGHT: MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING AND SHOULD
INVADE GRI SHORTLY. MODEL GUIDANCE FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES
SUGGEST CIGS WILL DECAY FURTHER TO IFR 09Z-12Z. WE ARE MONITORING
TSTM CLUSTERS UPSTREAM AND A PERIOD OF TSTMS COULD HIT GRI BEFORE
DAWN WITH IFR VSBYS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SO IT WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS TAF. WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS. SE-SSE WINDS WILL
REMAIN 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES. LLWS
WILL BE A PROBLEM.

CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO TSTM POTENTIAL AND HEIGHT/TIMING OF CHANGES
IN CEILING.

FRI: IFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY SCT TO
VFR STRATOCU. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM AFTER 20Z...BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF. SE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AND GUST 28 TO POSSIBLY 33 KTS AT TIMES.

CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO HEIGHT/TIMING CHANGES IN CEILING.

FRI EVE: VFR WITH A FAIRLY DECENT PROBABILITY OF IFR TSTMS AFTER
03Z. SE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES.

CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO TSTM POTENTIAL AND TIMING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 1236 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE EVENING FORECAST TO ADJUST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NE. HRRR SUGGESTING A COMPLEX
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST AND MOVING EAST LATER THIS EVENING.
CURRENT RADAR EVOLVING CLOSE TO HRRR PROGS AND THIS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE TEMPS LEFT PRETTY MUCH AS IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS RESIDE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO. ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE BASED
CAPES RUNNING IN THE 3000 TO 4500 J/KG RANGE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S. LITTLE CAPPING INVERSION LEFT AND EXPECT THAT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST FORCING REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT EXPECT A CLUSTER OR TWO OF STORMS TO MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...AIDED BY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 KTS.
AGAIN BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING TO REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...SO
WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW. OTHERWISE A VERY MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES DUE TO HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE/HUMIDITY.

THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE FAVORABLE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT /DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S/ SHOULD YIELD MLCAPE IN
EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG. A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BE IN PLACE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COOLING ALOFT ALSO SPREADS
INTO THE AREA AFTER NOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DISTURBANCE. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR MERRIMAN TO OGALLALA SHOULD
BE THE FOCUS FOR RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND 3 OR 4 PM
CENTRAL TIME. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE BACKED TO THE
SOUTHEAST...VEERING TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT. INITIAL STORM MODE WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT. RATHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AT FIRST. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND FASTER
MOVING AS COLD POOL ALOFT EVOLVES AND STORMS SPREAD EAST FRIDAY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. A
RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS CREATING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 8.5
C/KM. SCATTERED COVERAGE WEST OF HWY 83 EARLY IN THE EVENING
SHOULD QUICKLY CONGEAL INTO A SMALL MCS. WHILE LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN EARLY EVENING...THIS
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A DAMAGING WIND/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
PUSH EAST OF THE FA FOR DRY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN
INTO SRN MANITOBA AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AGAIN BE STEEP AND AS CAP
WEAKENS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM MINNESOTA INTO NERN AND CENTRAL NEBR. THE ECMWF MODEL
IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS SUN AFTN/EVENING TO AS HIGH AS 30 TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF FA.

DRY AND PLEASANT MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 80S UNDER
INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN AIRMASS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN WESTERN NEBRASKA COULD INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT THREE HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THEN...DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...A NEW ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WEST OF
MRR-OGA-IML SPREADING TO VTN-TIF-LBF AFTER 00Z. WITH EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...WIND GUSTS OF 45KT OR HIGHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH HAIL 1/2 INCH DIAMETER OR HIGHER. LOCALIZED HAIL SIZES
MAY APPROACH 2 INCHES DIAMETER...THOUGH THOSE CASES WILL BE
ISOLATED.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JWS
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...SPRINGER






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 1200 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

HAVE UPDATED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS FOR ONGOING TRENDS. AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY-DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST...AND
RADAR ALSO INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO.
SHOULD BE SOMETHING OF A BREAK BETWEEN ONGOING CONVECTION AS IT
DIMINISHES AND MOVES EASTWARD...AND LATER CONVECTION THAT IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE
TRIED TO CAPTURE TIMING A LITTLE MORE DISTINCTLY THROUGH MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS FIRED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE REMNANTS FROM AN MCV ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS MOVE INTO THE
AREA...COMBINED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES 3000-4000 J/KG.
EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK...LESS THAN 25 KNOTS...SO THE
STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY PULSY UP AND DOWN WITH SMALL HAIL AND 30 TO
50 MPH WINDS REPORTED. RAP MODEL INDICATES THIS WOULD REMAIN IN
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...THUS CONTINUED SCATTERED
WORDING IN THE FORECAST. SPC ALSO INDICATES A WATCH IS UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME. WEAK UPPER TROUGH EVEN REMAINS IN THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...AND COULD SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS...WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLE LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO INDUCE VERY SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY...COULD SEE
ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON STORMS.

BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD COME LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. STORMS
WILL LIKELY FIRE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS IN THE LEE TROUGH
AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO CROSS THE ROCKIES. THESE STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST...AND MOSTLY BRING A SEVERE RISK TO AREAS WEST OF
US...BUT SHOULD MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT...THUS HAVE POPS INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA...JUST CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.

SATURDAY SHOULD SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS. WIND SHEAR IS STILL MARGINAL...
BUT COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THE
FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA. COULD SEE AN EVENING CHANCE
OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY EVENING...BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY...AND EVEN DRY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
BUT AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...IT
SHOULD DRIVE THE FRONT INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WIND SHEAR INCREASES ON SUNDAY
AND SHOULD SEE SEVERE STORMS BREAK OUT NORTH OF I80 BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN DEVELOP SOUTHWARD TOWARD I80 THROUGH THE EVENING
AS THE FRONT MOVES IN...THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL
PUSH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...WHEN NEXT CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUES...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP
MENTION OUT OF THE TAF SITES FOR NOW. POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE
FOR STORMS IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT TO MORNING HOURS...AND/OR IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS...BUT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
COVERAGE AND LOCATION PRECLUDES MENTION. HAVE INDICATED POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR VIS NEAR DAWN AS TEMPERATURES FALL TOWARD DEWPOINTS...BUT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
DIURNALLY IN THE MID-MORNING AND DECREASE DIURNALLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MAYES
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MAYES




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 1017 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BUILD OVERHEAD NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...INLAND SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED A
LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN I ENVISIONED THREE HOURS AGO. SHOWERS
OFFSHORE AREN`T NUMEROUS BY ANY STRETCH...BUT THAT IS WHERE THE
REMAINING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS. THE LATEST SEVERAL HRRR
MODEL RUNS SHOW INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE JUST SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR AND LATER AFFECTING GEORGETOWN AND COASTAL HORRY COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT. GIVEN CURRENT RADAR LOOPS AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS DOES SEEM REASONABLE. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

LOW PRESSURE APPROXIMATELY 250 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR IS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THIS EVENING. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN
THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ARE ADVECTING
HUMID AIR ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC. A SPLASH OF SUNSHINE EARLIER
TODAY WAS ALL THIS AIRMASS NEEDED TO EXPLODE INTO WAVES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MANY OF WHICH CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GRAND
STRAND AND PEE DEE REGION. POPS AS HIGH AS 80 PERCENT ARE FORECAST
IN THE PEE DEE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE
EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A SLUG OF SURPRISINGLY DRY AIR ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. EARLIER MODELS KEPT
THIS DRY AIR MAINLY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA HOWEVER THE 19Z RUN
OF THE HRRR WAS MORE INSISTENT THAT DEWPOINTS WOULD FALL INTO THE
LOWER 60S LATE TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
RISING PRESSURES OVER LAND AT NIGHT NORMALLY CREATE A BACKED SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL WIND COMPARED TO WHAT THE BROAD SYNOPTIC GRADIENT
MIGHT SUGGEST...SO I HAVE TRIMMED A FEW DEGREES OFF FORECAST
DEWPOINTS AFTER 07-08Z...MAINLY AFFECTING THE LBT-ILM CORRIDOR. THIS
WILL HAVE THE ADDED IMPACT OF CREATING LESSER SHOWER AND FOG/LOW
STRATUS CHANCES LATE TONIGHT...AND I HAVE TRIMMED BACK FORECAST POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM 69-74...COOLEST IN BURGAW AND NORTH
OF LUMBERTON...WARMEST AT THE GEORGETOWN COUNTY BEACHES AND BALD
HEAD ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH
WHILE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FL/GA COAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
DEFINED SUN. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT BUILDING 5H RIDGE WILL WORK TO DRY THE MID LEVELS. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP BY AROUND HALF AN INCH SUN
THEY WILL STILL BE VERY CLOSE TO CLIMO. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BUT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LINGERING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES WILL STILL BE ABLE
TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
UNDER THE 5H RIDGE STORM MOTIONS WILL AGAIN BE UNDER 10 KT AND
STORMS WILL HAVE ABILITY TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS.
HOWEVER THE OVERALL FLOODING THREAT IS DECREASED GIVEN THE LOWER
EXPECTED COVERAGE. HIGHS CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW CLIMO WITH CLOUD
COVER AND EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP LOWS ABOVE CLIMO...LOW TO MID
70S.

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN MON FURTHER DRYING MID
LEVELS WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE. CONFIDENCE MON IS ON THE LOW
SIDE...IN PART DUE TO EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE LURKING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND RESULTING
MID LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE AND THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
FEATURES WOULD POINT TO PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING LATER IN THE
PERIOD. WILL CARRY LOW CHC POP MON WITH HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE
COAST. HIGHS WILL CREEP UP A DEGREE OR TWO...NEARING CLIMO...AS
THE 5H RIDGE BUILDS. LOWS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS WILL REMAIN ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
TROPICAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. ON TUESDAY
THE LOW SHOULD BE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST BUT MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE
FATE OF THE LOW THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH MID WEEK
PUSHING A TROUGH/FRONT EAST THROUGH THURS BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY. THE TROPICAL LOW OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD GET
PICKED UP BY THIS TROUGH PUSHING EAST. GFS JUST SHOWS SOME
CONVECTION MOVING UP THROUGH THE OFF SHORE WATERS FRI INTO SATURDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW TRACKING UP THROUGH THE
OFF SHORE WATERS OFF OF CAPE FEAR FRI REACHING THE WATERS OFF OF
CAPE HATTERAS BY SAT MORNING.

INITIALLY SHOULD SEE WEAK RETURN FLOW AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH
PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER INLAND AREAS TUES INTO WED. CONVECTION SHOULD
BE MORE ISOLATED THROUGH MID WEEK AS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE UP THE
EAST COAST. BY LATE WED INTO THURS MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CAROLINAS....MAINLY WELL INLAND. BY LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY...THE
ENTIRE TROUGH PUSHES EAST AS THE REMNANT TROPICAL LOW MOVES UP THE
COAST. SHOULD SEE ADDED SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE
TROUGH OVER COASTAL CAROLINAS BEFORE SHIFTING OFF SHORE. FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST KEEPING GREATEST CONVECTION
FROM THE LOW WELL OFF SHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
CAROLINAS BEHIND FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE WED WELL
INLAND AND LATE THURS INTO FRI OVER MOST OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN A MOISTURE RICH
AIR MASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN 90 TO
95 MOST DAYS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONVECTION WILL HANG ON ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS OR
SO...WITH ONLY A VCSH MENTION THROUGH 02Z. WILL ADD SOME INLAND
STRATUS OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT. SOME OF
THE MODELS DO BRING IN LOWER DEWPOINTS AFTER 06Z...SO THIS HAS
CREATED SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS. CONTINUED
NORTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CONVECTION
A BIT...INDIRECTLY ATTRIBUTED TO THE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF SOUTH
CAROLINA. THINK IT MAY DEVELOP ENOUGH AND BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
SPREAD SOME SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THIS MAY
INHIBIT CONVECTION...BUT PROBABLY WILL STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY AROUND MAX HEATING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD POSSIBLY CREATING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...WINDS SURGED TO A SOLID 20 KNOTS NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS EVENING BUT APPEAR TO HAVE
STABILIZED IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ON THE LAST SET OF OBSERVATIONS.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE TIGHTEST PORTION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS RESPONSIBLE. SURFACE PRESSURES ACROSS NE
NORTH CAROLINA ARE 1024 MB VERSUS 1017-ISH MB WITHIN THE OFFSHORE
LOW. SEAS AT THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY HAVE INCREASED TO
5 FEET...AND I CONTEMPLATED ISSUING AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR
THE SURF CITY-CAPE FEAR ZONE IF I HAD MORE CONFIDENCE THESE LARGER
SEAS WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LATEST FEW HRRR MODEL
RUNS CONFIRM RECENT RADAR TRENDS OF INCREASING SHOWERS JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR...AND I HAVE INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES FROM
CAPE FEAR SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MYRTLE BEACH OVERNIGHT ACCORDINGLY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

A HEALTHY EAST-NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE WATERS HAS PUSHED SEA
HEIGHTS TO AS HIGH AS 4 FEET AT THE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH NEARSHORE
BUOY. THESE 4-FOOTERS ARE LIKELY CONFINED TO THE WATERS NEAR AND
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WHERE THE STRONGEST GRADIENT AND LONGEST
EFFECTIVE FETCH ARE CO-LOCATED. THIS IS THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS EARLY-EVENING UPDATE. OTHERWISE OUR WEATHER
CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY LOW PRESSURE SWIRLING ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. THIS LOW IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY NON-FRONTAL IN
NATURE AND WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL WORK WITH THE LOW TO CONTINUE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING 14-17 KNOTS THIS EVENING...THEN CLOSER
TO 12 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
OVER THE WATERS SUN. WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY MON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SETTLES SOUTH.
GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING SPEEDS
10 TO 15 KT WITH THE CAVEAT THAT THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
DOES NOT UNDERGO ANY MEANINGFUL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH ISOLATED 4 FT POSSIBLE ALONG
OUTER EDGES OF NC ZONES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH LAND/SEA BREEZE
DOMINATING NEAR SHORE WINDS. TROPICAL LOW SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST
OF FLORIDA ON TUES AND IT SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH
WED INTO THURS AS TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGS DOWN AND PUSHES
EASTWARD. MODELS DIFFER AS TO INTENSITY OF THIS LOW WITH THE GFS
BEING THE WEAKEST WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS A 1013 MB LOW OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON FRI. EITHER WAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE S-SW WED NIGHT INTO THURS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS. EXPECT WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS TUES INTO WED WITH
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WED NIGHT INTO THURS
WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT BY THURS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DRH






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 705 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL
BUILD OVERHEAD NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE APPROXIMATELY 250 MILES SOUTH
OF CAPE FEAR IS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THIS EVENING.
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ARE ADVECTING HUMID AIR ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC. A
SPLASH OF SUNSHINE EARLIER TODAY WAS ALL THIS AIRMASS NEEDED TO
EXPLODE INTO WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MANY OF WHICH
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GRAND STRAND AND PEE DEE REGION. POPS AS HIGH
AS 80 PERCENT ARE FORECAST IN THE PEE DEE REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DECREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A SLUG OF SURPRISINGLY DRY AIR ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. EARLIER MODELS KEPT
THIS DRY AIR MAINLY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA HOWEVER THE 19Z RUN
OF THE HRRR WAS MORE INSISTENT THAT DEWPOINTS WOULD FALL INTO THE
LOWER 60S LATE TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
RISING PRESSURES OVER LAND AT NIGHT NORMALLY CREATE A BACKED SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL WIND COMPARED TO WHAT THE BROAD SYNOPTIC GRADIENT
MIGHT SUGGEST...SO I HAVE TRIMMED A FEW DEGREES OFF FORECAST
DEWPOINTS AFTER 07-08Z...MAINLY AFFECTING THE LBT-ILM CORRIDOR. THIS
WILL HAVE THE ADDED IMPACT OF CREATING LESSER SHOWER AND FOG/LOW
STRATUS CHANCES LATE TONIGHT...AND I HAVE TRIMMED BACK FORECAST POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM 69-74...COOLEST IN BURGAW AND NORTH
OF LUMBERTON...WARMEST AT THE GEORGETOWN COUNTY BEACHES AND BALD
HEAD ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH
WHILE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FL/GA COAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
DEFINED SUN. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT BUILDING 5H RIDGE WILL WORK TO DRY THE MID LEVELS. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP BY AROUND HALF AN INCH SUN
THEY WILL STILL BE VERY CLOSE TO CLIMO. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BUT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LINGERING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES WILL STILL BE ABLE
TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
UNDER THE 5H RIDGE STORM MOTIONS WILL AGAIN BE UNDER 10 KT AND
STORMS WILL HAVE ABILITY TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS.
HOWEVER THE OVERALL FLOODING THREAT IS DECREASED GIVEN THE LOWER
EXPECTED COVERAGE. HIGHS CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW CLIMO WITH CLOUD
COVER AND EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP LOWS ABOVE CLIMO...LOW TO MID
70S.

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN MON FURTHER DRYING MID
LEVELS WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE. CONFIDENCE MON IS ON THE LOW
SIDE...IN PART DUE TO EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE LURKING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND RESULTING
MID LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE AND THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
FEATURES WOULD POINT TO PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING LATER IN THE
PERIOD. WILL CARRY LOW CHC POP MON WITH HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE
COAST. HIGHS WILL CREEP UP A DEGREE OR TWO...NEARING CLIMO...AS
THE 5H RIDGE BUILDS. LOWS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS WILL REMAIN ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
TROPICAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. ON TUESDAY
THE LOW SHOULD BE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST BUT MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE
FATE OF THE LOW THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH MID WEEK
PUSHING A TROUGH/FRONT EAST THROUGH THURS BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY. THE TROPICAL LOW OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD GET
PICKED UP BY THIS TROUGH PUSHING EAST. GFS JUST SHOWS SOME
CONVECTION MOVING UP THROUGH THE OFF SHORE WATERS FRI INTO SATURDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW TRACKING UP THROUGH THE
OFF SHORE WATERS OFF OF CAPE FEAR FRI REACHING THE WATERS OFF OF
CAPE HATTERAS BY SAT MORNING.

INITIALLY SHOULD SEE WEAK RETURN FLOW AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH
PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER INLAND AREAS TUES INTO WED. CONVECTION SHOULD
BE MORE ISOLATED THROUGH MID WEEK AS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE UP THE
EAST COAST. BY LATE WED INTO THURS MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CAROLINAS....MAINLY WELL INLAND. BY LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY...THE
ENTIRE TROUGH PUSHES EAST AS THE REMNANT TROPICAL LOW MOVES UP THE
COAST. SHOULD SEE ADDED SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE
TROUGH OVER COASTAL CAROLINAS BEFORE SHIFTING OFF SHORE. FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST KEEPING GREATEST CONVECTION
FROM THE LOW WELL OFF SHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
CAROLINAS BEHIND FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE WED WELL
INLAND AND LATE THURS INTO FRI OVER MOST OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN A MOISTURE RICH
AIR MASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN 90 TO
95 MOST DAYS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...CONVECTION WILL HANG ON ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS OR
SO...WITH ONLY A VCSH MENTION THROUGH 02Z. WILL ADD SOME INLAND
STRATUS OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT. SOME OF
THE MODELS DO BRING IN LOWER DEWPOINTS AFTER 06Z...SO THIS HAS
CREATED SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS. CONTINUED
NORTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY...HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CONVECTION
A BIT...INDIRECTLY ATTRIBUTED TO THE LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF SOUTH
CAROLINA. THINK IT MAY DEVELOP ENOUGH AND BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
SPREAD SOME SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THIS MAY
INHIBIT CONVECTION...BUT PROBABLY WILL STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY AROUND MAX HEATING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD POSSIBLY CREATING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...A HEALTHY EAST-NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE
WATERS HAS PUSHED SEA HEIGHTS TO AS HIGH AS 4 FEET AT THE
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH NEARSHORE BUOY. THESE 4-FOOTERS ARE LIKELY
CONFINED TO THE WATERS NEAR AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WHERE THE
STRONGEST GRADIENT AND LONGEST EFFECTIVE FETCH ARE CO-LOCATED. THIS
IS THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS EARLY-EVENING
UPDATE. OTHERWISE OUR WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY LOW
PRESSURE SWIRLING ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. THIS LOW IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY NON-FRONTAL IN NATURE AND WILL BE WATCHED
CLOSELY BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OVER THE NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL WORK WITH THE LOW
TO CONTINUE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS
AVERAGING 14-17 KNOTS THIS EVENING...THEN CLOSER TO 12 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
OVER THE WATERS SUN. WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY MON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SETTLES SOUTH.
GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING SPEEDS
10 TO 15 KT WITH THE CAVEAT THAT THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
DOES NOT UNDERGO ANY MEANINGFUL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH ISOLATED 4 FT POSSIBLE ALONG
OUTER EDGES OF NC ZONES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH LAND/SEA BREEZE
DOMINATING NEAR SHORE WINDS. TROPICAL LOW SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST
OF FLORIDA ON TUES AND IT SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH
WED INTO THURS AS TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGS DOWN AND PUSHES
EASTWARD. MODELS DIFFER AS TO INTENSITY OF THIS LOW WITH THE GFS
BEING THE WEAKEST WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS A 1013 MB LOW OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON FRI. EITHER WAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE S-SW WED NIGHT INTO THURS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS. EXPECT WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS TUES INTO WED WITH
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WED NIGHT INTO THURS
WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT BY THURS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DRH





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

 609 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT SOUTH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH
SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE FRONT...MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6 PM FRI...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS IMPACTED MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PWATS AROUND 2" AND LITTLE SHEAR WITH
VERY WEAK STORM MOTION HAS BROUGHT HEAVY PRECIP RATES AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING AS THE
AIRMASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER FAIRLY WELL...CAPE VALUES HAVE
LOWERED TO BELOW 1000 J/KG. STILL SEEING WIDESPREAD PRECIP BUT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING. HRRR SHOWING PRECIP TO
GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
17...AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE TRENDED POPS IN A SIMILAR FASHION.
RAIN COOLED AIR HAS BROUGHT TEMPS IN MOST AREAS INTO THE 70S AND
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE 70S THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 131 PM FRI...STRONG SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT FORMED ALONG THE
SEABREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT COMBINING
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR SCATTERED STORMS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE...KEEPING THEM SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...COMBINED WITH VARIOUS LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARIES AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...WILL KEEP CHANCE OF
ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SLOW MOVEMENT AND HIGH
PWS COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS
ALONG THE SOUTH WITH THE VICINITY OF FRONT/LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH
A STALLED SFC BNDRY TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PARTICULARLY DURING PEAK HEATING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL CLOUDINESS AND AN EAST FLOW
SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPS NEAR CLIMO NORMALS SUNDAY...MAINLY UPPER 80S
INLAND TO LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES.

UPPER RIDGE SETTLES TO THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE SEMI-PERMANENT PIEDMONT
TROUGH REDEVELOPING BY MIDWEEK. WILL KEEP POPS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AT
20 TO 30 PCT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HIGHEST AFTN AND
EVENING WHEN INSTAB PEAKS. LOW LVL THICKNESS RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD..THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS OF 85
TO 90 ON MONDAY RISING INTO THE 90 TO 95 DGR RANGE THRU THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRI...SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...THOUGH IN
CONVECTION EXPECT TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY
SHOULD WANE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SREF PROBS AND
GUIDANCE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED
AGAIN SAT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRI...SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED AGAIN
SAT...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF AREA. ACTIVITY
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED SUN-TUE. BRIEF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS...AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF REDUCTION TO SUB-VFR IN ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/
AS OF 213 PM FRI...LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS. FRONT WILL LINE UP ALONG
THE COAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE. WIND DIRECTION
WILL DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CURRENT MODELS HAVE
FRONT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND SURFACE RIDGE WELL TO THE NORTH TRIES TO
BUILD SOUTH. SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS
WITH THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES TO THE N AND DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE S WILL
LEAD TO MAINLY E WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THRU SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH
SLIDES E LOW LVL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SE MON AND SOUTHERLY BY
TUE. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 15 KT RANGE MON AND
TUE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 4 FEET THRU SUN AND SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3
FEET MON INTO EARLY TUE. LATER TUE COULD AGAIN SEE SOME 4 FT SEAS
OUTER WATERS AS SRLY WINDS INCREASE A BIT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...CGG/CQD
MARINE...CGG/BTC








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 234 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...CONTINUING THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD NEXT WEEK BRINGING A
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED OFF ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AS EXPECTED ARE POSING A FLOODING
THREAT DUE TO VERY SLOW MOTION AND ABUNDANT AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND ACTUAL AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND DEEPLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A NUMBER OF BOUNDARIES THAT CAN SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. A WEAK UPPER WIND FIELD WILL KEEP STORMS SLOW-MOVING
AND A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IN TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING.
HOWEVER...AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AT LEAST
SOME THREAT FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.

HAVE CONTINUED TO STAY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
MINIMUMS. THIS STRATEGY HAS WORKED VERY WELL RECENTLY. THIS WILL
GIVE US LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S MOST PLACES...AND MID 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...REMAINS OF A FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA
ALONG WITH LINGERING OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION WILL
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE BETTER OF THE 2 DAYS WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO THE SPECTER OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. WHILE THE CHANCE THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IS LOW IT WILL ENHANCE
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...FURTHER INCREASING MOISTURE AND
POTENTIALLY ADDING SOME LOW LEVEL FORCING. BUILDING MID LEVEL
RIDGE...WHILE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT SAT...IS
LIKELY TO RESULT IN A DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE SUN...AS WILL THE
SOUTHWARD/EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD.

MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT DUE THE BUILD RIDGE.
THIS WILL KEEP STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE WEAKER SIDE...LESSENING
THE WIND/HAIL THREAT. IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE
ON THE ORDER OF 5 MPH AND POSSIBLY LESS. DEEP MOISTURE...SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...AND DEEP WARM LAYER(FREEZING LEVEL REMAINS ABOVE 15K FT)
MEAN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
FLOODING.

CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW
CLIMO...MID TO UPPER 80S AND KEEP LOWS ABOVE CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
APPROACH ON THURSDAY. SOME DRIER AIR LOCALLY ON MONDAY COMBINED WITH
THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROMOTE ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION CHANCES FOR
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MOIST
ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY RAMP BACK UP AND CONVECTION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE TUES/WED...WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES BECOMING MORE ACTIVE EACH DAY AS HEAT AND MOISTURE DRIVE
HIGHER INSTABILITY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BEHIND THIS...AS IT SERVES MORE AS A DRYING BOUNDARY THAN A
TEMPERATURE BOUNDARY. WILL SHOW DECREASED POP FOR LATE WEEK BUT WITH
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWING
CONVECTION FIRING UP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT BISECTS THE TAF
SITES AROUND ISSUANCE TIME. WITH BOUNDARIES A BIT MURKY WILL KEEP
VCTS IN THE TAF AND WILL UPDATE ONCE THEY DEVELOP. ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO BE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES...MAX CAPE VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. SO EXPECT
ISOLATED IFR IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM EAST TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 8
KNOTS BUT A FEW HIGHER GUST COULD OCCUR ALONG THUNDERSTORM GUST
FRONTS BUT THESE INCREASED WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS TAF SITES COULD SEE RESTRICTION OF
VISIBILITIES AFTER 09 UTC WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IF TAF SITES
RECEIVE ANY RAIN TODAY ALSO WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY
WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY
THROUGHOUT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD POSSIBLY CREATING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INLAND COMBINED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 2 FT RANGE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND STALLED
DISSIPATING FRONT IN THE AREA...WITH WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT SO SPEEDS WILL BE
ON THE ORDER OF 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS 2 TO 3
FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST WILL WEAKEN AND
DRIFT EAST MONDAY...ALLOWING STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC TO BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS CAUSES WINDS TO VEER
FROM NE TO SE ON MONDAY...AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY...BUT
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS BOTH DAYS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE 2-3 FT RANGE WITH A VEERING WIND-WAVE AND A CONTINUED SE GROUND
SWELL MAKING UP THE SPECTRUM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DRH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 145 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND WAVER IN THE
VICINITY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...CONTINUING THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTION HAS FINALLY STARTED FIRING
OFF...FOR NOW ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR
NC COUNTIES. STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING...EXACTLY AS EXPECTED...AND
POSE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. HAVE TWEAKED POPS ACCORDINGLY
BUT FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWS:

THE AIR MASS WILL MODIFY TODAY AS THE LAST VESTIGES OF ANY DRY AIR
ALOFT MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB
TO BETWEEN 2 AND 2.25 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS TO PERHAPS
WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD. A FRONT
JUST TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING WILL BE IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE
DAY AND THEN SLIP TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY AND
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION
TO THE SYNOPTIC FRONT AND MESOSCALE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...WE
EXPECT SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION ON
THU...TO LIE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS THESE BOUNDARIES
COLLIDE...PROVIDING INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE FIRST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF THE DAY MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS DOES MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE AS THIS WILL BE THE
AREA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT THIS MORNING.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO ONLY INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
LAST WELL INTO THE NIGHT AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOME
LOCATIONS WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONT POSITIONED NEARBY.

THE BIGGEST RISK FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD WILL BE HEAVY RAIN.
GIVEN STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER 5 KT AND WITH MOISTURE DEEPENING
WITH TIME...EXPECT WHERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO TRAIN...THERE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE PROBABILITY
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN URBANIZED AREAS. RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH...BUT
LOCALLY...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO EXCEED 3 OR
4 INCHES.

HIGHER CLOUDS FROM DECAYING UPSTREAM CONVECTION WAS STREAMING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE DAY. WE EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT STRONG HEATING AND THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF 90. RAIN COOLED COMMUNITIES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE 70S AND THEN ATTEMPT TO RECOVER ONCE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT OF A
PARTICULAR LOCATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE VERY NEAR THE DEW POINTS...
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...WARM BUT UNSETTLED FOR THE WEEKEND AS A RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY WAVERS IN THE VICINITY. THIS REMNANT FRONT WILL WASH OUT
DURING SATURDAY AND DRIFT OFFSHORE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A PARTLY-TO-MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE BOUNDARY
AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS FROM PRIOR CONVECTION SERVE AS TSTM FOCI. EVEN
THOUGH RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING ALOFT...PWATS OVER 2 INCHES AND
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPLY AMPLE FUEL FOR STORMS...WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING THE PRIMARY THREATS. TEMPS SATURDAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME TIME...HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
EASTERN ZONES...AROUND 90 INLAND...ALTHOUGH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL STILL
MAKE IT FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE. LOWS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM
THOUGH...MID 70S MOST OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY IS A TRICKIER DAY...BUT LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIVE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION...KEEPING PWATS AROUND TWO
INCHES...BUT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE INCREASING
ALOFT...PROVIDING AT LEAST SOME LID TO CONVECTION. THUS LOWER POP
WILL BE CARRIED SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GFS/ECM/CMC ALL DEVELOP A WEAK
LOW/TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH MAY FURTHER ENHANCE MOIST
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. ATTM NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS
FEATURE...BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TO WHETHER IT CAN ENHANCE
PRECIP POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE COOLER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN MUCH OF JUNE...MID-80S TO AROUND 90 FOR HIGHS...AND LOW TO MID
70S FOR MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
APPROACH ON THURSDAY. SOME DRIER AIR LOCALLY ON MONDAY COMBINED WITH
THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROMOTE ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION CHANCES FOR
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MOIST
ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY RAMP BACK UP AND CONVECTION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE TUES/WED...WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES BECOMING MORE ACTIVE EACH DAY AS HEAT AND MOISTURE DRIVE
HIGHER INSTABILITY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BEHIND THIS...AS IT SERVES MORE AS A DRYING BOUNDARY THAN A
TEMPERATURE BOUNDARY. WILL SHOW DECREASED POP FOR LATE WEEK BUT WITH
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWING
CONVECTION FIRING UP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT BISECTS THE TAF
SITES AROUND ISSUANCE TIME. WITH BOUNDARIES A BIT MURKY WILL KEEP
VCTS IN THE TAF AND WILL UPDATE ONCE THEY DEVELOP. ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO BE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES...MAX CAPE VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. SO EXPECT
ISOLATED IFR IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM EAST TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 8
KNOTS BUT A FEW HIGHER GUST COULD OCCUR ALONG THUNDERSTORM GUST
FRONTS BUT THESE INCREASED WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS TAF SITES COULD SEE RESTRICTION OF
VISIBILITIES AFTER 09 UTC WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IF TAF SITES
RECEIVE ANY RAIN TODAY ALSO WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY
WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY
THROUGHOUT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD POSSIBLY CREATING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS TODAY. AS LOW PRESSURE
MIGRATES SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT...THE DIRECTION WILL BACK TO
EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLACK AS LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH AN 8 TO 10 SECOND
ESE SWELL PRESENT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...WEAK FRONT WAVERING IN THE VICINITY WILL WASH
OUT ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
SC COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST...AND THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. ATTM IT
APPEARS THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT...SO SPEEDS WILL
BE AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT IF THE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH STRENGTHENS MORE THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...WIND SPEEDS MAY TICK UPWARD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2-3
FT ALL WEEKEND...WITH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL AND E/NE WIND WAVE
COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST WILL WEAKEN AND
DRIFT EAST MONDAY...ALLOWING STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC TO BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS CAUSES WINDS TO VEER
FROM NE TO SE ON MONDAY...AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY...BUT
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS BOTH DAYS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE 2-3 FT RANGE WITH A VEERING WIND-WAVE AND A CONTINUED SE GROUND
SWELL MAKING UP THE SPECTRUM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK/RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DRH
MARINE...REK/RJD/JDW




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 136 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN
INCREASE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN TO HOT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR NEAR LUMBERTON...WITH A SECOND CENTER IN
WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR THE TYPICAL LOCATION OF THE
LEE-SIDE TROUGH. NORTHERLY WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA MARK THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SETTLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION HAS HELPED STABILIZE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LATEST MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS SHOWING A CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. DECENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT MEAN ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN 2000 J/KG MUCAPE AND A DEEP
ENOUGH BOUNDARY TO ACT AS A TRIGGERING MECHANISM. EARLIER CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE LESS THAN 2000 FEET DEEP AS
MEASURED BY RADAR...WHICH IS BECOMING MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
NEW STORMS. THE LATEST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS SHOW VERY LITTLE
SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. I WILL MAINTAIN A 20-40
POP FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ALONG THE CURVED BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
WILMINGTON AND LELAND TO NEAR TABOR CITY...BUT SOUTH AND WEST OF
THIS AREA POPS HAVE BEEN CUT TO 10 PERCENT.

LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...WITH LOWS
STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S AT THE
BEACHES. DESPITE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST SHOULD
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...BROAD SWATH OF MOISTURE EMANATING FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MODULATE THE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MAIN AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A SUBTLE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE
PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE...A DECAYING FRONT WILL
ADD TO MID LEVEL CATALYSTS WHICH WILL CONSIST OF THE STANDARD
SHORTWAVES AND DEVELOPING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICIES. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGHER POPS FOR SATURDAY AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH ANYTIME IS FAIR GAME REALLY. THE
NAM/MET NUMBERS ARE COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD AND CONSIDERING THE
COVERAGE OF EXPECTED CONVECTION THESE SEEM MORE REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE
BOUNDARY/WAVE SUNDAY TO MAKE FOR LOWERED RAIN CHANCES FROM DAYS
PREVIOUS WHILE TEMPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO. MID LEVEL RIDGE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX GETS UNDERWAY COMPLIMENTS OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE REMAINS OF THE
OFFSHORE FLOW MAY HINDER THIS FLOW ON MONDAY BUT THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
WILL FEATURE THE RETURN OF A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL PIEDMONT
TROUGH. THIS COULD HOLD TRUE EVEN LONGER IF THE OFFSHORE LOW
RESTRENGTHENS IN A TROPICAL OR HYBRID SITUATION...BUT AS OF NOW THE
NHC INDICATES A LOW CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING. AFTER FEATURING LOWER
THAN NORMAL/ISOLATED POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BRING A RETURN OF
LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND. THICKNESS
VALUES RISE FROM ABOUT 574DAM TO 577DAM FROM EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO
TUESDAY AND THEREAFTER SIGNIFYING A FURTHER SHIFT ABOVE CLIMO FOR
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN ANY PATCHY FOG/STRATUS EARLY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS...AND/OR IN SHRA/TSRA THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES WITH OVERALL LIGHT WINDS AND
SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...COULD
SEE SHORT-LIVED PATCHY AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS...WHICH IF DOES OCCUR
WILL DISSIPATE/MIX-OUT AFTER DAYBREAK GIVING WAY TO VFR. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPO IN GOING FORECAST. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH COULD
CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH SCATTERED
CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KTS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS
SHRA/TSRA WILL TAPER OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SCT/BKN LINGERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD POSSIBLY CREATING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR NEAR LUMBERTON WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING FROM THE CURRENT 12-15 KNOT SPEEDS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH OF CAPE FEAR IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
A SOUTHWARD-DRIFTING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DIP SOUTHWARD LATE. SEAS
ARE GENERALLY 2 FEET WITH SOME 3-FOOTERS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM SHORE
EAST OF CAPE FEAR.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
TYPICAL OF A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH ONLY A BRIEF INTRUSION ABOVE
TEN KNOTS. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE MORE PROBLEMATIC. THE
DISSIPATING FRONT AND AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL ALMOST CALL FOR A
VARIABLE DIRECTION BUT OVERALL EAST TO EVEN NORTHEAST WINDS ON
OCCASION WILL SUFFICE. IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE MORE SEA BREEZE
DRIVEN...A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WILL BE MORE IN PLAY. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 1-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY BRINGS A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AS A
DECAYING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SITS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE LIES ANCHORED OFF OF LONG ISLAND. THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FATE
OF THIS BOUNDARY COULD AFFECT THE WINDS FOR A LONGER PERIOD BUT FOR
NOW WILL OPT TOWARDS MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT WASH IT OUT AND/OR TAKE IT
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO NO LONGER HAVE A LOCAL BEARING. MONDAYS WINDS
THUS REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND WILL VEER JUST SLIGHTLY AS THE HIGH OFF
THE COAST DRIFTS EAST A BIT. DEVELOPING PIEDMONT TROUGH ON TUESDAY
TO BRING AN ADDITIONAL VEER TO S OR SSW BUT WITH NO APPRECIABLE
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. WITH JUST LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND A NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE SWELL PREDOMINANT SEAS 2 TO 3 FT AT MOST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL/RJD





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 923 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

MAIN UPDATE ISSUES ARE HYDRO THIS EVENING. ALL FLOOD ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER...AN AREAL FLOOD
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN.
OVERLAND FLOODING CONTINUES IN THE WARNED AREA...MAINLY FROM
CROSBY SOUTHEAST THROUGH TIOGA TO PARSHALL AND MAKOTI...EAST TO
HIGHWAY 83 AND THEN NORTH THROUGH LOGAN...MINOT...GLENBURN AND
WESTHOPE. IN ADDITION A WARM CONVEYOR BELT PROCESS IS ENHANCING
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH COULD ADD AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WE AR STILL GATHERING RAINFALL REPORTS AND
CONFERRING WITH APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS AND THE RIVER FORECAST
CENTER REGARDING POSSIBLE FLOODING DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE LIKELY...SO STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SITUATION.

POPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS AND
SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODEL FORECAST. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL ALSO
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN
THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z AS A RESULT.

SURFACE LOW IS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN UP AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS LED TO INCREASING
WIND SPEED AND PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO
PROG THE LOW TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
EVENING. THINK THE FLOODING THREAT SHOULD END ACROSS THE REGION BY
LATE EVENING.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WINDS ON SUNDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT STALLS OVER LAKE MANITOBA. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY...LEADING TO
WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AREAWIDE BY MID-MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDIEST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON WHERE AND FOR HOW LONG TO PUT OUT A WIND
ADVISORY (IF WARRANTED) FOR SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
MONDAY...GENERATING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWERS. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER LOW IN EXITING THE REGION...A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BENEATH
THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...WILL
BRING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY.

A RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND
BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE RIDGE FLATTENS BY FRIDAY AND CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
WITH FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVER KBIS-KMOT-KJMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH
HYDROLOGY...TWH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 257 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

MCV OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE HAS SPARKED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR PROGS
THIS MCV AND ATTENDANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DO
NOT SEE ANY REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS FORECAST...SO KEPT LIKELY
POPS GOING FOR THE EASTERN CWA.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A WET PICTURE ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
PIVOTS OVER THE DAKOTAS. NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING FROM THE FORECAST EITHER.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE SEVERE WORDING IN THE ZONES FOR THIS
UPDATE...AND CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS DECIDE IF THE WATCH WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED IN TIME BASED ON HOW THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EVOLVES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LOW
OVER ALBERTA/BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER
LOW MOVES/DEVELOPS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WHERE IT REMAINS THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE
FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS HUDSON BAY ON MONDAY. THIS
SCENARIO WILL KEEP A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
MONDAY...AND HENCE A CHANCE OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS.
IN ADDITION...WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW IN
EXITING THE REGION...A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BENEATH THE UPPER LOW
WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND BRING GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND
BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE RIDGE FLATTENS BY FRIDAY AND CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
WITH FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW.

A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS 65 TO 75 MONDAY...WARMING TO 75 TO 85 BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THE MVFR CONDITIONS AT KDIK AND KJMS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
BY 20Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AC








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 218 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...BUT STILL DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION. THE HRRR IS DOING A GOOD JOG IN THE NEAR
TERM...AND THE NAM/GFS ARE NOT TOO BAD WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES
INTO SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY...AND WE WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. THERE IS A
SHORTWAVE/MCV THAT WILL LIFT NORTH AND AFFECT THE DVL BASIN AND
THE VALLEY. EXPECT VIGOROUS CONVECTION WITH TORRENTIAL
RAIN...SOME SMALL HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME WIND GIVEN THE HIGH
MOISTURE...PWATS TO 1.75 INCHES LATER TONIGHT AND MUCAPE TO 3000
J/KG. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT AN
EVEN INTO SAT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DEEP LAYERED SHEAR ONLY AROUND
25-30KT. GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND 70 DEWPOINTS...WE CAN
NEVER TOTALLY RULE OUT SEVERE STORMS. WE WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN
THE GRIDS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO THE MN
COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AND SAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...WITH
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ANYWHERE A THUNDERSTORM CAN DEVELOP IN THIS
TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE REGION SATURDAY...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
LIKELY AFTER PERHAPS A BREAK DURING THE MORNING WITH MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS...SINCE THE LLJ IS NOT THAT STRONG AROUND
30-35KT OR SO. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN WITH
DEEP LAYERED SHEAR FAIRLY WEAK BUT A BIT STRONGER THAN TODAY...SO
ONCE AGAIN A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH HAIL/WIND. THERE WILL
BE SOME AREAS THAT COULD RECEIVE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES...PERHAPS MORE WHERE STORMS PERSIST FOR ANY
LENGTH OF TIME THROUGH SATURDAY.

ON SAT NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST AND
THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD END.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

ON SUNDAY...A STRONG LOW WILL WRAP UP IN CANADA WITH STRONGER
WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. THERE WILL BE THE
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAINLY IN THE NORTH.

FOR MONDAY...IT SHOULD BE COOL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A STORM. THERE WILL STILL BE HIGH PWATS OVER 1.25
INCHES IN THE NORTH...SO MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN/T BE
RULED OUT.

LARGE UPPER LOW WILL DEPART THE AREA TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A
LINGERING LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS.  THEN DRIER AIR WORKS IN
FOR WED-THU BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES BRINGING CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  GFS/ECMWF HAVING RUN TO
RUN ISSUES IN REGARDS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK OR A FLATTER ZONAL
FLOW.  HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR A SHORT WAVE WILL IMPACT NORTH
DAKOTA/NRN MN LATE WEEK BUT UNLIKE THE PAST TWO SYSTEMS MAY NOT
LINGER AROUND AS LONG AS IT MOVES EAST FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY.  LATE
WEEK MAY TURN QUITE WARM AND VERY HUMID.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

A MOST DIFFICULT FORECAST AS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
SHOWER/TSTMS AT ANY ONE SIGHT MAKES IT DIFFICULT WHETHER TO GO
VICINITY THUNDERSTORM OR PREDOMINATE FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME.  STUCK
WITH A LONG TERM VCTS FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH ONLY
PREDOMINATE AT DVL TONIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING AS THREAT SEEMS HIGHER
THERE.  EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND AT TIMES 12 TO 25 KTS THRU
THIS EVE AND DIMINISH A BIT OVERNIGHT.  AS FOR CIGS...CONVECTIVE
CUMULUS FORMING AROUND 2500 FT AGL AND LOW CIGS RISING TO ABOUT
2000-2500 FT AGL.  EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN AT THESE LEVELS FOR THE
MOST PART THE NEXT 24 HOURS....THOUGH SOME LOWERING CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE ESP DVL BASIN WITH MORE RAIN THERE.  NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION CIGS COULD GO BACK INTO IFR RANGE 10Z-14Z SAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

CANCELLED THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE S BUFFALO RIVER AT SABIN
WHERE RIVER LEVELS DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND FOR THE TWO RIVERS
RIVER AT HALLOCK...WHERE STAGES PEAKED JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE
RED RIVER AT FARGO CONTINUES TO DECLINE...WHILE RIVER STAGES ARE
HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY FROM EAST GRAND FORKS TO DRAYTON. OSLO IS THE
ONLY FORECAST POINT THAT REMAINS IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. PLACEMENT
AND COVERAGE OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND WILL DETERMINE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
POSE THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THUS...FLOODING CONCERNS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001>004-007-
     029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1249 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

MCV OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IS GENERATING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...JUST WEST OF ABERDEEN. THE
LATEST HRRR PROGS THIS MCV AND ATTENDANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
MOVE NORTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE
ANY REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS FORECAST...SO KEPT LIKELY POPS
GOING FOR THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER...LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY WEST WHERE IT APPEARS AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME INITIATING.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A WET PICTURE ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH PIVOTS INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY
AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...AND WILL ALLOW
LATER SHIFTS DECIDE IF THE WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TAMP DOWN POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR OBS AND TRENDS.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE QUITE A BIT. IT WILL TAKE A
WHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RELOAD AND FOR CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO
FIRE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE...THE HIGHEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR (~30 KNOTS)
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON
WHEREAS THE GREATEST INSTABILITY (MUCAPE ~1000 J/KG) IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE DISCONNECT WITH
THESE PARAMETERS SHOULD HAMPER THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY. WITH THAT
BEING SAID...DO NOT THINK THE SEVERE THREAT IS ZERO EITHER.

FROM THIS MORNING`S BISMARCK SOUNDING...PWATS ARE AROUND THE 80TH
PERCENTILE...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE ONE STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE
NORMAL. GIVEN THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. THE NEXT WAVE OF
CONVECTION AS OF 1145 UTC WAS PROPAGATING NORTH OUT OF SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WILL ENTER NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12-14 UTC. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE OF STORMS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR DETAILS A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH
DAKOTA WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT
BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT STRAGGLING NEAR/ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER WILL LIFT INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A LARGE SHIELD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT
THESE TO GENERALLY MAINTAIN A NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. DESPITE SOME
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IN THE MID MORNING HOURS...A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE/COLD FRONT IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL ADVANCE INTO WESTERN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY
UPPER WIND FLOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON PER APPROACH OF THE
NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH...EXPECT THE SURFACE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN TO
A CREEP AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW. THE FRONT WILL
LIMP FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
06Z- 12Z SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A PRIME THREAT AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH FROM PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND MENTION
HEAVY RAIN. IN ADDITION...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA PER SPC CONVECTIVE DAY 1 OUTLOOK WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ITS REFLECTION AT
THE SURFACE ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THUS...FOCUSED THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 ON SATURDAY...DECREASING TO THE WEST. THE SEVERE AND
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA WHERE THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE LOCATED
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ON SUNDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER
LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. A DRY SLOT
OVERTAKES THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOCUSED ACROSS THE
US HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE 984-986 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
MANITOBA SUPPORTS WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...NON-SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL MONDAY IN GREATER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
UNDER COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THE DEPARTING DEEP LOW
INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. THEREAFTER...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH IS
NOTORIOUS FOR IMPULSES WITH LOW PREDICTABILITY SUPPORTING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION. THIS PATTERN ALSO SUPPORTS CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THE MVFR CONDITIONS AT KDIK AND KJMS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
BY 20Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1239 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE NEAR
POWDERVILLE MONTANA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE CURRENT ARC/BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STRONGER H85 WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONGER STORMS. THUS FAR...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAIN HAVE BEEN THE MAIN THREATS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO 100 IN THE
SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND MAINTAINED A LIKELY MENTION
INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER WOULD EXPECT THIS
TO DIMINISHING AFTER 09Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

LITTLE CHANGE THIS UPDATE CYCLE OTHER THAN TO INCREASE POPS TO
ENHANCE THE FORECAST IN THE VERY SHORT...NOWCAST...TIME FRAME
WHERE STORMS WERE...MEDORA AND NORTHEAST FROM THERE ON EXPECTED
TRACK.

WILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. NO NEW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
EXISTING STORMS SO FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IT WILL BE SOME TIME
BEFORE THE WESTERN STORMS MAKE IT IN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

AFTER COORDINATION WITH FGF AND ABR...WILL SEND A QUICK UPDATE TO
LOWER POPS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH THE EVENING. SLIGHT CAP NOTED ON THE BISMARCK 00
UTC SOUNDING INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CONVECTION IN MONTANA SHOULD MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH ABUNDANT CAPE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT IT
SHOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE THIS REACHES EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME 70
DEGREE DEWPOINTS SHOWING UP FROM HARVEY TO CARRINGTON. CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA. INCREASING
BULK SHEAR SHOULD ALSO MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN MONTANA IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. LATEST HRRR INDICATES A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SHORTLY AFTER 00 UTC FRIDAY. A LIMITING
FACTOR CURRENTLY IS THE MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STILL WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO CONSIDERING THE VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS REMAINING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER EAST/CENTRAL WYOMING WITH
BROAD HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES TROF WORKING TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN WITH SWRLY FLOW OVER
OVER OUR AREA. VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES NOTED UPSTREAM TRIGGERING
OFF CONVECTION OVER PTNS OF ERN MT INTO WY.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED WAVES
WILL CONTINUE THEIR APPROACH TOWARDS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR IN PLACE SO SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUES. PLENTY OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE
AREA WITH PW VALUES PUSHING 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT...STRETCHING
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...A WET DAY IS EXPECTED AS UPPER TROF CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH AND STARTS TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE SFC LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUING TO PULL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE CONTINUING THE
SEVERE THREAT. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO CONTINUES WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SLOW MOVING/TRAINING STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUING FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO BE OVER EASTERN MONTANA BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD SLOWLY WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING
EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM DAYTIME FRIDAY AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
MAIN INITIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE DAKOTAS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES. THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR HEAVY RAIN...AND
PLENTY OF CAPE AND SHEARING FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY ON SATURDAY...BUT
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHED GREATLY OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN DRIVER WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BUT
BREEZY/WINDY SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO THE STATE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW STRENGTHENS AND REMAINS OVER MANITOBA. THEN A WESTERN RIDGE
BEGINS MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A PROMISE OF
DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 70S. LOWS IN THE 55 TO 65
RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND IN THE 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT EARLY THIS MORNING IS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER KDIK WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH TO
SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST. KBIS AND KMOT APPEARS TO REMAIN ON THE
EASTERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. FOR NOW HAVE A VCTS/VCSH UNTIL A MORE DEFINITIVE
SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TERMINALS. OVERALL EXPECT LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER THE LOWEST CIGS APPEAR TO DEVELOP
OVER KJMS...WITH IFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-
017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 1153 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

STRONG CONVECTION ALONG A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO NORTHEAST OF
RAPID CITY SD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
LATEST RAP/HRRR/HOPWRF CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE AS
IT PROGRESSES INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...BUT ALL THREE ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS...SO EXACT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN. ANY STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. BESIDES ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS...MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL MN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
DISSIPATED. LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MT/ND
AND WY/SD BORDERS WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS STORMS MOVE OUT OF REGION OF FAVORED
DYNAMIC LIFT. LATEST RAP/HRRR KEEP PRECIP WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 18 UTC FRIDAY...SO MAY BE ABLE TO CUT POPS COMPLETELY
UNTIL THEN BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP 20 PERCENT GOING FOR ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

00 UTC REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN...MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH. DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ANY KIND OF MEANINGFUL
WAVE ON WATER VAPOR WITHIN GREATER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...BUT THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE
ND/MN BORDER. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...BUT FORCING/LIFT IS VERY WEAK WITH AROUND 25 KTS AT
850 HPA AND 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR BELOW 30 KTS. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH THESE STORMS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SEVERE THRESHOLDS TO BE MET.

HRRR/HOPWRF SEEM TO BE HANDLING CURRENT CONVECTION THE BEST...
MOVING IT NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING WITH A BREAK IN ACTIVITY
UNTIL AT LEAST 06 UTC. THEREAFTER...HOPWRF REMAINS DRY WHEREAS
THE HRRR BRINGS EASTERN MT/WY CONVECTION INTO THE FAR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA. FOR THIS EVENING...WILL DROP POPS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE VALLEY TO 20 PERCENT WITH HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS MN AND THEN 30
TO 50 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION. REST OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

BIG ISSUE THIS PERIOD IS SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN THREAT...WHERE/WHEN.
SHORT RANGE MODELS NOT A HUGE HELP AS ALL HAVE VARIOUS PLACEMENTS
OF QPF THRU THE PD. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS CONTINUED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AT 850 MB INTO ERN ND/SD MOVING NOW INTO WRN MN. THIS
AREA SUPPORTED SCATTERED CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN EARLIER THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THAT HAS DISSIPATED. THIS AFTN DECENT SFC HEATING
AND SUN IN WCNTRL MN AND FAR SE ND SO HAVE SEEN SOME RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS IN WCNTRL MN FROM AN AREA THAT MOVED OUT OF
EAST CENTRAL SD. COULD SEE OTHER ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION FORM LATE
AFTN-EVE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. THIS MAY CONTINUE TONIGHT...THOUGH
IDEA IS FOR A TSTM COMPLEX TO FORM IN EASTERN MT AND MOVE INTO WRN
ND THIS EVE AND MAYBE INTO ERN ND LATE TONIGHT-FRI MORNING. WITH
ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES KEPT POPS IN THE CHC RANGE AND DID NOT GO
AS HIGH AS HPC QPF (1 INCH). EXPECT HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO BE
ISOLATED AND THUS NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT OR FRI AM. FRI
AFTN-EVENING IS A BETTER RISK OF WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS..ALL DEPENDING ON WHAT REMAINS OF ANY
MORNING PRECIP. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTN WITH
MODEL MOS DEW PTS PROGGED INTO THE LOWER 70S AND HIGH TEMPS UPR
70S TO LOWER 80S PRODUCING CAPES IN THE 2-3K RANGE. THUS WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SEVERE RISK IN ERN ND/RRV 18Z FRI TO 06Z SAT. BULK
SHEAR NOT HUGE WITH BEST JET/SHEAR MORE SO IN CENTRAL-WRN NEBRASKA
INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. CHC OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN BETTER FRI
AFTN-NIGHT BUT DUE TO HUGE UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
WATCHES AND REFRESH HYDRO OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

UPPER TROUGH SHORT WAVE TO SLOWLY MOVE THRU SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
COULD PROVE TO THE BE WETTEST DAY IN NW/WCNTRL MN. CHC OF PRECIP
WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT IN ERN ND AND SUNDAY IN NW MN.

FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE A SHIFT TO A DRIER WEATHER
REGIME COULD BE IN THE OFFING...AT LEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS SOME UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. BEFORE THAT MAJOR GUIDANCE MOVES THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH AXIS THROUGH MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO...WITH POTENTIAL
DESTABILIZATION LEADING TO SOME SHRA EVEN THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS EARLY WEEK IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM LEADING
TO HIGHS ONLY NR 70 WITH LOWS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW 50 NORTHEAST
ND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARMING TREND WITH UPPER RIDGE BECOMING MORE
INVOLVED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

THERE ARE SOME MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ND BEING MASKED
ON SATELLITE BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. IT APPEARS THESE LOWER
CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND WHILE THEY MAY CLIP
KDVL...THINK AIRFIELDS ALONG THE VALLEY AND POINTS EAST SHOULD
REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH AND EAST...AGAIN POSSIBLY
IMPACTING KDVL...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 25 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...ROGERS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

 804 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL WEATHER
DISTURBANCES MOVING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR
THE CHANCE OF STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE
ILN FORECAST AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW STRETCHING
ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO FROM NNW-TO-SSE. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS
BOUNDARY...CONDITIONS WERE RAINY AND CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING...WHICH HAS HINDERED RISES IN TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT INSTABILITY VALUES ARE SIMILAR
ON EITHER SIDE...AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.
NONETHELESS...THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE
FRONT...WHERE HEATING WAS MAXIMIZED AND CONVERGENCE IS ALSO
PRESENT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE WELL OVER AN INCH AND A HALF...AND
SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE OCCASIONAL THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME OF THE STRONGER CORES ALSO PRODUCED BRIEF
STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS (DEPICTED ON TCMH) EARLIER...AND A FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...THOUGH ONLY WITH THE MOST
INTENSE OF THE CONVECTION. THE SPECIFICS ON
TIMING...PLACEMENT...AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE CWA ARE NOT AS
CERTAIN AS WOULD BE IDEAL. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A
DIMINISHING TREND AFTER 21Z...WITH THE AXIS OF GREATEST ACTIVITY
MOVING NORTHEAST WITH TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOT OF ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...SO THIS
MAY NOT BE AS QUICK A DIMINISHING TREND AS THE HRRR (FOR EXAMPLE)
IS FORECASTING.

BY OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA DRYING OUT FOR A WHILE GOING INTO
THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. WITH NO CHANGE TO THE MOIST
CONDITIONS...WARM MIN TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED (NEAR 70 DEGREES).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY
MORNING...A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE AIR MASS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...WITH
TIMING ACROSS THE ILN CWA APPEARING TO BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE
PEAK OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE. HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF
THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING THE REGION...AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

WITH AN EXPECTATION FOR CLOUDS AND MOIST CONDITIONS...MAX TEMPS
FOR MONDAY WERE BROUGHT DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. SIMILAR
MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT IN COMPARISON TO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL NOT ARRIVE
INTO OUR REGION UNTIL TUESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...MINOR DISTURBANCES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN
TYPICAL CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ON
MONDAY.

LARGE SCALE MID LVL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WILL
SLOWLY PUSH AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY SLOWING UP AS IT PUSHES INTO THE
ERN/SERN CWFA TUESDAY NIGHT. MAIN UPR LVL DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST...SO CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON DAYTIME HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. HAVE RAMPED POPS UP TO A
LEAST 50 FOR NOW AS AM NOT CONVINCED IF CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. POPS WILL
WANE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN IN THE EAST/SRN ZONES DUE TO THE
FRONT IN THE PROXIMITY.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL
ENERGY MERGING INTO THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AS IT DIGS SLOWLY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. FIRST FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY EXIT OUR SE AND PERHAPS
DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. TIMING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE OUR IN
QUESTION FOR THE NEXT FRONT AT THIS POINT IN TIME SO HAVE GONE WITH
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH POPS DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST.

LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO SE CANADA AND THE CENTRAL/ERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL OFFER A DRIER AND A
LITTLE COOLER AIRMASS.

AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHILE
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITS EAST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MID LVL RIDGING
WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
THE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
THEN MODIFY ON SATURDAY WITH 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF CONVECTION RUNNING NR I-70 FROM KCMH/KLCK TO KDAY WILL
AFFECT THOSE TAFS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD. HAVE TSRA IN A
TEMPO FOR THE FIRST HOUR OF THE TAF.

AS THE CONVECTION BACKS OFF AFTER SUNSET...CLOUDS SHOULD GO
SCATTERED. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KLUK WITH ITS RIVER
VALLEY FOG AND KCMH/KLCK WHO SAW HEAVY RAIN THE VICINITY. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE IFR FOG BY MORNING.

MODELS SWING A H5 TROF TOWARDS THE REGION BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS
SHOULD HELP KICK OFF SHRA/TSRA SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. AS HEATING
PROGRESSES...ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. WENT PREVAILING PCPN BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

 1236 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FT WILL GRADUALLY RISE AND BECOME
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE
DRYLINE IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING...AND MAY AFFECT KGAG AND KWWR EARLY TONIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...A TSRA COMPLEX OVER KS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE FORMED...AND
WILL THEN MOVE SE TOWARD NORTH-CENTRAL OK. THIS COMPLEX...IF IT
HAPPENS MORE OR LESS AS PLANNED...WILL BRING TSRA TO KPNC
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL AFFECT WINDS AT ALL SITES IN N OK. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH THE PROBABLE EXCEPTION OF SW OK AND KSPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX... WINDS... TEMPS...

DISCUSSION...
15Z SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS THE SFC LOW OVER SERN CO/SWRN KS. IN
RESPONSE... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
OK/TXPH BORDER. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH OBS... BUT MOST SITES HAVE
STAYED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA... BUT A FEW HAVE FLIRTED WITH
SUSTAINED 30MPH OR GUSTS TO 40MPH AT BRIEF MOMENTS.

LIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
SFC BOUNDARY/REGION OF THETA E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
ACROSS THE WRN TXPH. PER RADAR TRENDS... IT CONTINUES TO HANG
ON AS IT MOVES N/NE... SO ADJUSTED POPS IN NW OK ACCORDINGLY.

FOR THIS AFTN/EVENING... THE SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES... WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS FAR NWRN OK THROUGH THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM KGAG/KWWR SHOW DECENT SBCAPE
PROFILES THROUGH THE EVENING... 1500-2500 J/KG... HOWEVER...
CONTINUAL S/SW WAA IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP A LID ON
DEVELOPMENT... WITH THE BEST CHANCES LATE IN THE EVENING AS THE
SFC LOW BUILDS IN... PROVIDING SOME LIFT. STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED
AND LIKELY SCATTERED... WITH SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED ACROSS
FAR NWRN OK.

JTK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/

AVIATION...
27/12Z TAFS...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH 15-17Z ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. WILL LEAVE OUT OF
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND KSPS FOR NOW BUT MVFR-VFR CEILINGS MAY
SPREAD INTO THOSE AREAS AND WILL BE HANDLED WITH AMD. WILL ALSO
MENTION VCSH AT KGAG/KWWR FOR FIRST FEW HOURS BUT MAIN CONCERN FOR
TSRA WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WILL BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN-THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA. WE WILL HOLD OFF
ON ADVISORY RIGHT NOW AND MENTION THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA AND
GRAPHICASTS/HWO. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EAST OF DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAIN SHOW EXPECTED OVER
KANSAS AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH RESPECTABLE CAP
WILL BE SEEN AGAIN TODAY...BETTER FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING
LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL YIELD GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP DOWN INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
LOW POPS WILL BE SPREAD DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKER.
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS FORMING
EAST OF DRYLINE NEAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO MCS EVOLUTION TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST FROM KANSAS. POPS WERE RAISED AND SPREAD A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. PRIMARILY A
WIND AND PERHAPS HAIL THREAT AND MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-40.

IN THE WAKE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGD TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND STALL. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR MAINLY LATE DAY AND NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA.
WITH W-NW FLOW ALOFT YIELDING SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN POST
FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME...SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  73  90  73 /  10  10  20  30
HOBART OK         93  72  94  70 /  10  10  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  93  74  96  74 /  10  10  10  20
GAGE OK           90  71  92  69 /  20  30  30  10
PONCA CITY OK     88  72  90  71 /  10  30  40  60
DURANT OK         87  75  92  75 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/23/23



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

 1037 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX... WINDS... TEMPS...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
15Z SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS THE SFC LOW OVER SERN CO/SWRN KS. IN
RESPONSE... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
OK/TXPH BORDER. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH OBS... BUT MOST SITES HAVE
STAYED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA... BUT A FEW HAVE FLIRTED WITH
SUSTAINED 30MPH OR GUSTS TO 40MPH AT BRIEF MOMENTS.

LIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
SFC BOUNDARY/REGION OF THETA E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
ACROSS THE WRN TXPH. PER RADAR TRENDS... IT CONTINUES TO HANG
ON AS IT MOVES N/NE... SO ADJUSTED POPS IN NW OK ACCORDINGLY.

FOR THIS AFTN/EVENING... THE SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES... WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS FAR NWRN OK THROUGH THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM KGAG/KWWR SHOW DECENT SBCAPE
PROFILES THROUGH THE EVENING... 1500-2500 J/KG... HOWEVER...
CONTINUAL S/SW WAA IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP A LID ON
DEVELOPMENT... WITH THE BEST CHANCES LATE IN THE EVENING AS THE
SFC LOW BUILDS IN... PROVIDING SOME LIFT. STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED
AND LIKELY SCATTERED... WITH SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED ACROSS
FAR NWRN OK.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/

AVIATION...
27/12Z TAFS...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH 15-17Z ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. WILL LEAVE OUT OF
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND KSPS FOR NOW BUT MVFR-VFR CEILINGS MAY
SPREAD INTO THOSE AREAS AND WILL BE HANDLED WITH AMD. WILL ALSO
MENTION VCSH AT KGAG/KWWR FOR FIRST FEW HOURS BUT MAIN CONCERN FOR
TSRA WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WILL BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN-THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA. WE WILL HOLD OFF
ON ADVISORY RIGHT NOW AND MENTION THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA AND
GRAPHICASTS/HWO. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EAST OF DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAIN SHOW EXPECTED OVER
KANSAS AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH RESPECTABLE CAP
WILL BE SEEN AGAIN TODAY...BETTER FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING
LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL YIELD GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP DOWN INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
LOW POPS WILL BE SPREAD DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKER.
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS FORMING
EAST OF DRYLINE NEAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO MCS EVOLUTION TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST FROM KANSAS. POPS WERE RAISED AND SPREAD A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. PRIMARILY A
WIND AND PERHAPS HAIL THREAT AND MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-40.

IN THE WAKE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGD TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND STALL. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR MAINLY LATE DAY AND NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA.
WITH W-NW FLOW ALOFT YIELDING SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN POST
FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME...SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  88  73  90  73 /  10  10  20  30
HOBART OK         93  72  94  70 /  10  10  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  93  74  96  74 /  10  10  10  20
GAGE OK           90  71  92  69 /  20  30  30  10
PONCA CITY OK     88  72  90  71 /  10  30  40  60
DURANT OK         87  75  92  75 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/11/11



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY

NWS RAPID CITY SD

 846 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 842 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THAT LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW
TWO SMALL-SCALE DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...AND THE 00Z
KUNR SOUNDING HAD 659 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUS...PRECIP WAS LINGERING
A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE PRECIP TREND
HAS BEEN DOWNWARD...CONSISTENT WITH HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE. THUS
EXPECT PRECIP TO BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ACROSS SCNTRL ND
SLIDING NORTHWARD. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES STRETCHING FROM
YELLOWSTONE TO THE BLKHLS ARE SLIDING EASTWARD BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CNTRL ND WITH W/NW FLOW
ACROSS THE CWA. KUDX RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CROSSING
MUCH OF WRN SD.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN EARLY THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL
COOLING SETS IN. THINK THE PRECIP WILL BE DONE BY 03Z. WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL KEEP THIS LOW TOP CONVECTION FROM
BECOMING SEVERE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT WITH TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60.

UPPER LOW WILL GET WRAPPED UP AND STALLED OUT NORTH OF ND SUNDAY.
SLIGHTLY WARMER MID-LEVELS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLE ENOUGH TO HINDER STORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS SUNDAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S. WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW STACKING BELOW THE UPPER
LOW...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR BREEZY W/NW
WINDS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST SD. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2014

A TIGHTLY WOUND LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN AT BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROTATING
AROUND THIS LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL GENERATE SOME BREEZY WINDS BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE.  THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
EXIT THE PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A BROAD RIDGE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.  SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S IN MANY PLACES IN THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AND THEN INTO THE 90S FRIDAY. A WEAK BREAK
THROUGH SHORT WAVE WILL GENERATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAJECTORY MOSTLY DRY FOR
THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 457 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING ISOLD MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLD-SCT TSRA
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z THIS EVNG.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BUNKERS
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...BUNKERS





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY

NWS RAPID CITY SD

 150 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN TO CNTRL
ROCKIES AREA WITH SEVERAL WAVES ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OVER WY TO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WRN DAKOTAS. OBS SHOW A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STATIONED NEAR THE
SD/WY BORDER...WITH 10+ DEGREE TEMP DIFFERENCE FROM NE WY TO WRN SD.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER
FORCING SLIDES NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT WAVE. KUDX RADAR SHOWING
SHOWERS/STORMS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.
STRONGEST CAPE WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS CNTRL SD AT 1500
J/KG...OTHERWISE WEAK CAPE ACROSS NE WY WILL HINDER ANY SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONG UPDRAFTS AND LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL. NAM KEEPS DCAPE WEAK OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT LATEST RAP DOES BRING SOME HIGHER DCAPE TO WRN
SD SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH HAIL. HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVNG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
AND AN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS. WILL KEEP
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A SERIES OF WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION. DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY WEAK
ACROSS THE CWA...BUT ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO POP UP
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY DISSIPATE BY EVENING. TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014


DRIER WX WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF PUSHES TO OUR EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD
IN BEHIND IT FROM WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...MOVING INTO THE PLAINS
STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH SLOWLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE READINGS POSSIBLE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE THROUGH
THE RIDGE AND BRING A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT
MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN...MOSTLY ACROSS NERN WY AND WRN SD...THEN PUSH EWD ACROSS
WRN/CNTRL SD THIS EVE WITH POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER
STORMS. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WDSPRD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR SDZ001-002-
     012>014-024>032-041>044-072>074.

WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ054-056-057-
     071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

 1239 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

CURRENT MORNING ACTIVITY IS WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY. ONE EXCEPTION
EXISTS IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES AROUND CHAMBERLAIN WHERE THE COMMA
HEAD OF A LINGERING MCV CONTINUES TO SPIN AND GIVE THAT AREA SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. TO THE SOUTH...STILL A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONVECTION
COULD CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES FROM SIOUX CITY TO STORM LAKE
DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. BUT OTHER THAN THAT...THINGS ARE GETTING
QUIETER. WHAT HAPPENS THIS AFTERNOON IS PROBLEMATIC. THE SHORT
TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS...IN PARTICULAR THE HRRR...IS RATHER USELESS
AT THIS TIME AS IT DOES NOT HAVE A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION
AT ALL. THE RAP IS NOT MUCH BETTER. THAT SAID...WORRIED THAT WE
MAY RECEIVE MORE AIR MASS TYPE TSRA GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I
29 IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS SOME HINTS POINT TO
THIS. FOR INSTANCE THE ARW WHICH HANDLED THE AIR MASS TSRA THE
BEST YESTERDAY IS SHOWING IT AGAIN...AS WELL AS THE RAP13. WE DO
HAVE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TODAY...AS EVIDENCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
MCVS NEAR CHAMBERLAIN. BUT THIS WAVE IS LIFTING MORE NORTHEASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON RIGHT UP THE I 29 CORRIDOR AS OPPOSED TO THE MORE
WEST TO EAST MOVING WAVE YESTERDAY. SO ONCE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED...IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA COULD RECEIVE AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS BY
MID AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY QUIET DOWN FOR A WHILE
THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE LIFTS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...AND OUR AREA
SHOWS SOME WEAK SHORT TERM UPPER RIDGING TAKING HOLD. THEN ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE WATER VAPOR
DISPLAYING IT CURRENTLY IN EASTERN CO. THEN FINALLY THE MAIN WAVE
MOVES THROUGH MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY IN OUR EASTERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE A BIT TRICKY. COOLED THEM A BIT AROUND
THE CHAMBERLAIN AREA AS THAT CLOUD COVER MAY STICK AROUND A WHILE.
BUT ELSEWHERE...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE FILTERED...PARTIAL SUNSHINE
STREAMING THROUGH EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ENOUGH TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN A BIT AS IT SPREADS EAST...BUT STILL
LIKELY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. DEEPER MOISTURE WAS FOUND OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...A LITTLE OVER AN INCH AND A HALF OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE OAX SOUNDING. THE OAX SOUNDING ALSO
INDICATED WEAK WINDS ALOFT SO STORM MOTION LIKELY TO BE VERY SLOW
WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE CASE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE CONTINUATION OF THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIKELY TO
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY DISORGANIZED 20 TO 40
POP THROUGH THE DAY. DID BACK OFF ON HIGHS A BIT WITH EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

BY TONIGHT A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ONTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS BRINGING WITH IT STRONGER FORCING AND BETTER SHEAR. THE
OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS A BIT DISORGANIZED SO A LOT OF THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE WORKING OFF OF THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG CAPE
VALUES. THE BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 29 AND LIKELY DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGHER POPS AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE MAIN THREAT AREA WILL BE
NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVED QUITE A BIT OF
RAINFALL LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THE LIKELIHOOD OF FINDING VASTLY USEFUL DATA IN OVERLY CONVECTED
MODELS DIMINISHES FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE ONE GOES INTO SATURDAY...
AND HENCE HAVE DRAWN BACK TOWARD LARGER SCALE CHARACTERISTICS TO
REFINE PRECIPITATION THREAT. LITTLE DOUBT THAT WILL BE WITHIN
HEALTHY TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WITH AIRMASS FEATURING SOMEWHERE IN THE 1.5 TO 1.7 IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER AHEAD OF BOUNDARY PUSHING TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA BY
MIDDAY. WITH LITTLE TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT AND BROAD LIFT FORCING
INCREASING AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT A FAIRLY
BROAD EXPANSE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING TOWARD THE END OF THE
MORNING NEAR AND EAST OF THE I29 CORRIDOR...WITH A GRADUAL TENDENCY
TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN TERMS OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ON SATURDAY...THERE IS MUCH WORKING AGAINST A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT...INCLUDING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL WAVE...PRECEDED BY VERY LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION. THE OVERALL
DEEPER SHEAR PARAMETERS ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY MARGINAL AT AROUND 25
TO 30 KNOTS.  IF ANY LOCATION WAS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER
THREAT...WOULD BE PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA WHERE MID LEVEL WINDS
A BIT STRONGER AND A HINT OF BETTER INSTABILITY POTENTIAL. WHAT
WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT WILL BE FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
GIVEN THE WARM CLOUD DEPTH...AND THREAT FOR TRAINING STORMS.

EXITING TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF SW
MN/NW IA...BUT THEN ALSO A DISTINCT ENDING TO THREAT AS GET SOME
DRYING...ESPECIALLY ALOFT. WEAK RIDGING TAKES OVER...AND WOULD NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET A BIT OF FOG INTO THE MIX LATER SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING.

ON SUNDAY...SHEAR BECOMES A VASTLY MORE INTERESTING PARAMETER AS
A STRONG JET CORE PUNCHES OUT INTO THE PLAINS TO SOUTH OF CLOSED
UPPER LOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS
RESPOND TO UPPER ENERGY BY STRENGTHENING FLOW FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION. MOISTURE RETURN AT THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH EXPECTED
SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 HEAD OF COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE
DAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO KEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN
PLAY THROUGH THE DAY...COMBINED WITH MOISTURE POOLING AT LOWER
LEVELS TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO AS HIGH AS
2500-3000 J/KG. SOME SUBTLE TIMING ISSUES WITH WAVE/FRONT...
BUT GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE AGREEMENT...WOULD EXPECT SEVERAL SEVERE
STORMS AND LIKELY THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OF THE
WEEKEND TO COMMENCE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE WELL INTO
SUNDAY EVENING...AND WOULD LIKELY ENCOMPASS ALL TYPES OF SEVERE
STORMS GIVEN THE SHEAR DISTRIBUTION AND ENHANCEMENT NEAR THE
BOUNDARY.

OFTEN UNDERESTIMATED IS THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AS CONVECTION GROWS UPSCALE...AND SEVERAL MODELS MAY
BE HOLDING ON TO A BIT TOO MUCH NORTHWARD EXTENT OF CROSS FRONTAL
FLOW LATER ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIP HOLDING ON
TO JUST NORTH OF THE I90 CORRIDOR. WILL KEEP SOME LIKELY POPS
GOING ACROSS THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT TAPER OFF ON MONDAY.

TEMPORARILY AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SPILL SEASONALLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. ALWAYS INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY OF THE
MEAGER WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW COULD AMPLIFY A BIT MORE AND
INTRODUCE A SMALL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS ALOFT...OTHERWISE LOOKS TO BE THE START OF RETURN
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT BY THURSDAY THAT COULD BRING A COUPLE OF
ROGUE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD
STRONGLY LATE WEEK. AS A RESULT...STILL APPEARS THAT SEASONABLY
WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS WILL SET IN FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE SPECIFICS IN THE TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. TWO TO THREE SHORT WAVES ARE IMPACTING THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HRS...ONE LIFTING UP THE I 29 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...A
SECOND PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT...AND A THIRD IMPACTING AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF I 29 BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY. THEREFORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH REDUCED CATEGORIES IN THE MVFR TO IFR
CATEGORIES WILL BE A PROBLEM AT TIMES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE TAF SITES AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...MJ






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SIOUX FALLS SD

 1152 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

CURRENT MORNING ACTIVITY IS WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY. ONE EXCEPTION
EXISTS IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES AROUND CHAMBERLAIN WHERE THE COMMA
HEAD OF A LINGERING MCV CONTINUES TO SPIN AND GIVE THAT AREA SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. TO THE SOUTH...STILL A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONVECTION
COULD CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES FROM SIOUX CITY TO STORM LAKE
DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. BUT OTHER THAN THAT...THINGS ARE GETTING
QUIETER. WHAT HAPPENS THIS AFTERNOON IS PROBLEMATIC. THE SHORT
TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS...IN PARTICULAR THE HRRR...IS RATHER USELESS
AT THIS TIME AS IT DOES NOT HAVE A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION
AT ALL. THE RAP IS NOT MUCH BETTER. THAT SAID...WORRIED THAT WE
MAY RECEIVE MORE AIR MASS TYPE TSRA GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I
29 IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS SOME HINTS POINT TO
THIS. FOR INSTANCE THE ARW WHICH HANDLED THE AIR MASS TSRA THE
BEST YESTERDAY IS SHOWING IT AGAIN...AS WELL AS THE RAP13. WE DO
HAVE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TODAY...AS EVIDENCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
MCVS NEAR CHAMBERLAIN. BUT THIS WAVE IS LIFTING MORE NORTHEASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON RIGHT UP THE I 29 CORRIDOR AS OPPOSED TO THE MORE
WEST TO EAST MOVING WAVE YESTERDAY. SO ONCE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED...IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA COULD RECEIVE AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS BY
MID AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY QUIET DOWN FOR A WHILE
THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE LIFTS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...AND OUR AREA
SHOWS SOME WEAK SHORT TERM UPPER RIDGING TAKING HOLD. THEN ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE WATER VAPOR
DISPLAYING IT CURRENTLY IN EASTERN CO. THEN FINALLY THE MAIN WAVE
MOVES THROUGH MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY IN OUR EASTERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE A BIT TRICKY. COOLED THEM A BIT AROUND
THE CHAMBERLAIN AREA AS THAT CLOUD COVER MAY STICK AROUND A WHILE.
BUT ELSEWHERE...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE FILTERED...PARTIAL SUNSHINE
STREAMING THROUGH EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ENOUGH TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN A BIT AS IT SPREADS EAST...BUT STILL
LIKELY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. DEEPER MOISTURE WAS FOUND OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...A LITTLE OVER AN INCH AND A HALF OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE OAX SOUNDING. THE OAX SOUNDING ALSO
INDICATED WEAK WINDS ALOFT SO STORM MOTION LIKELY TO BE VERY SLOW
WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE CASE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE CONTINUATION OF THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIKELY TO
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY DISORGANIZED 20 TO 40
POP THROUGH THE DAY. DID BACK OFF ON HIGHS A BIT WITH EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

BY TONIGHT A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ONTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS BRINGING WITH IT STRONGER FORCING AND BETTER SHEAR. THE
OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS A BIT DISORGANIZED SO A LOT OF THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE WORKING OFF OF THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG CAPE
VALUES. THE BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 29 AND LIKELY DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGHER POPS AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE MAIN THREAT AREA WILL BE
NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVED QUITE A BIT OF
RAINFALL LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THE LIKELIHOOD OF FINDING VASTLY USEFUL DATA IN OVERLY CONVECTED
MODELS DIMINISHES FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE ONE GOES INTO SATURDAY...
AND HENCE HAVE DRAWN BACK TOWARD LARGER SCALE CHARACTERISTICS TO
REFINE PRECIPITATION THREAT. LITTLE DOUBT THAT WILL BE WITHIN
HEALTHY TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WITH AIRMASS FEATURING SOMEWHERE IN THE 1.5 TO 1.7 IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER AHEAD OF BOUNDARY PUSHING TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA BY
MIDDAY. WITH LITTLE TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT AND BROAD LIFT FORCING
INCREASING AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT A FAIRLY
BROAD EXPANSE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING TOWARD THE END OF THE
MORNING NEAR AND EAST OF THE I29 CORRIDOR...WITH A GRADUAL TENDENCY
TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN TERMS OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ON SATURDAY...THERE IS MUCH WORKING AGAINST A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT...INCLUDING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL WAVE...PRECEDED BY VERY LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION. THE OVERALL
DEEPER SHEAR PARAMETERS ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY MARGINAL AT AROUND 25
TO 30 KNOTS.  IF ANY LOCATION WAS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER
THREAT...WOULD BE PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA WHERE MID LEVEL WINDS
A BIT STRONGER AND A HINT OF BETTER INSTABILITY POTENTIAL. WHAT
WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT WILL BE FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
GIVEN THE WARM CLOUD DEPTH...AND THREAT FOR TRAINING STORMS.

EXITING TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF SW
MN/NW IA...BUT THEN ALSO A DISTINCT ENDING TO THREAT AS GET SOME
DRYING...ESPECIALLY ALOFT. WEAK RIDGING TAKES OVER...AND WOULD NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET A BIT OF FOG INTO THE MIX LATER SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING.

ON SUNDAY...SHEAR BECOMES A VASTLY MORE INTERESTING PARAMETER AS
A STRONG JET CORE PUNCHES OUT INTO THE PLAINS TO SOUTH OF CLOSED
UPPER LOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS
RESPOND TO UPPER ENERGY BY STRENGTHENING FLOW FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION. MOISTURE RETURN AT THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH EXPECTED
SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 HEAD OF COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE
DAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO KEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN
PLAY THROUGH THE DAY...COMBINED WITH MOISTURE POOLING AT LOWER
LEVELS TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO AS HIGH AS
2500-3000 J/KG. SOME SUBTLE TIMING ISSUES WITH WAVE/FRONT...
BUT GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE AGREEMENT...WOULD EXPECT SEVERAL SEVERE
STORMS AND LIKELY THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OF THE
WEEKEND TO COMMENCE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE WELL INTO
SUNDAY EVENING...AND WOULD LIKELY ENCOMPASS ALL TYPES OF SEVERE
STORMS GIVEN THE SHEAR DISTRIBUTION AND ENHANCEMENT NEAR THE
BOUNDARY.

OFTEN UNDERESTIMATED IS THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AS CONVECTION GROWS UPSCALE...AND SEVERAL MODELS MAY
BE HOLDING ON TO A BIT TOO MUCH NORTHWARD EXTENT OF CROSS FRONTAL
FLOW LATER ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIP HOLDING ON
TO JUST NORTH OF THE I90 CORRIDOR. WILL KEEP SOME LIKELY POPS
GOING ACROSS THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT TAPER OFF ON MONDAY.

TEMPORARILY AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SPILL SEASONALLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. ALWAYS INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY OF THE
MEAGER WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW COULD AMPLIFY A BIT MORE AND
INTRODUCE A SMALL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS ALOFT...OTHERWISE LOOKS TO BE THE START OF RETURN
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT BY THURSDAY THAT COULD BRING A COUPLE OF
ROGUE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD
STRONGLY LATE WEEK. AS A RESULT...STILL APPEARS THAT SEASONABLY
WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS WILL SET IN FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

A POTENTIALLY MESSY DAY AHEAD WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
WELL AS OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS...THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE ACTIVITY
REMAINS A BIT MORE ISOLATED BUT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL AGAIN
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPOTTY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POTENTIAL THREATS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...08







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ABERDEEN SD

 549 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.UPDATE...

BASED ON LATEST RADAR DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
STREAMING NORTHWARD...HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FURTHER
EAST. LATEST HRRR TRYING TO PICK UP ON THIS LATEST TREND AND KEEPS
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. JUST ANOTHER
WRINKLE IN WHATS BEEN A COMPLICATED CONVECTIVE FORECAST THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ON OVERALL EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT SAID THOUGH...THREAT
WILL REMAIN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WHEREVER STORMS
DECIDE TO FORM AND MOVE...AND AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS BELOW.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MCS FROM LAST EVENING WHICH AFFECTED NORTH CENTRAL SD WITH SOME
MODERATE RAINFALL HAS PUSHED NORTH INTO ND WHILE ALSO WEAKENING.
WATCHING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO NEB.
MADE SOME LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO WX/POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
MODELS STILL HAVING A RATHER TOUGH TIME AGREEING ON WHEN AND WHERE
PRECIP WILL FORM TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN WHATS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ON RADAR...WILL LIKELY SEE THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT PUSH
NORTH INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING. NEW DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
SD AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO AFFECT THE REGION. THIS
IS WHEN SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT
ANYTHING BECOMING SEVERE THIS MORNING...BUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ARE DEFINITELY THE TIME TABLE TO WATCH. WILL CONTINUE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DEBATING ON AN
EASTWARD EXTENSION...BUT THERE AT LEAST SEEMS TO BE SOME AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS...AND WITH THE SREF PROBS THAT THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN LOOKS TO BE OVER CENTRAL SD WITH THE LATER DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL A RATHER COMPLICATED FORECAST IN THE
SHORT TERM AND UNFORTUNATELY THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. WILL STILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON ANY POSSIBLE EASTWARD EXTENSION TO THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THIS MORNINGS 00Z MODELS ARE RELATIVELY SIMILAR WITH THE LONG TERM
PATTERN EVOLUTION...THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT NORMAL TO A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL TRANSITION
EAST DURING THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS REBOUNDING FAIRLY QUICKLY BY
MIDWEEK. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS DIABATICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNDER COLD TEMPS ALOFT. OTHERWISE
IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL
BUT THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE BY WEEKS END.


&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE ADDING
THUNDER TO KABR/KATY TERMINALS IF STORMS CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER
THIS MORNING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
FOR A SHORT TIME. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE REGION DUE
TO THE STORMS/RAINFALL.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-CORSON-DAY-DEUEL-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-
     FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-MARSHALL-
     MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MORRISTOWN TN

 1048 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AS SEEN IN REGIONAL 12Z
SOUNDINGS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY TO SEE THE BEST COVERAGE BASED ON THE
REDUCING CLOUD COVER SEEN IN SATELLITE AND ON THE LATEST HRRR AND
RAP RUNS. THE TREND OF DECREASING CLOUDS AREA WIDE SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WEAK
WINDS ALOFT AND TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGEST SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 1131 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO CHANGES TO THIS TAF PACKAGE. STILL EXPECTING MVFR TO IFR VIS
AFTER 05Z TONIGHT AT KCKV AND KCSV. THESE FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY 12Z FRIDAY.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE MID-STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE SCATTERED ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF
PREVAILING TAF LINES.

WINDS WILL BE CALM TONIGHT AND LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014/

UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE
IN THE MID STATE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40. 00Z OHX SOUNDING IS VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH A PWAT OF 1.64 INCHES AND AN LI AROUND -4.
THUS ANTICIPATED ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH
THE NIGHT. 22Z HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT
ACTIVITY...SO BASED ON ITS OUTPUT WILL ADJUST POPS SOMEWHAT WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-24 AND SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...HIGH PWAT
AIRMASS INDICATES LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. REST
OF FORECAST INCLUDING TEMPS AND CLOUDS APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE.

SHAMBURGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED STORMS ARE STILL AROUND THE MID-STATE AT ISSUANCE.  VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE MVFR TO IFR VIS
SETTLES IN FOR SEVERAL HOURS. KCKV AND KCSV WILL SEE THE MAJORITY
OF THESE VIS ISSUES...BUT BOTH SHOULD CLEAR UP BY 12Z FRIDAY.

AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY BUT
SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN PREVAILING LINES.

WINDS WILL BE CALM TONIGHT AND LIGHT OUT OF THE SW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

UNGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BROKEN SHOWER COVERAGE IS OBSERVED ACROSS NRN AL AND EXTENDING
INTO FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOES EXTEND FROM AR
SE THROUGH CENTRAL MS WITH PVA TO THE NE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NE THIS EVENING BUT BOTH THE HRRR AND OVERALL MODEL
MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH OVERNIGHT. DYNAMICS
ALOFT DONT SEEM TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THE BROKEN TO WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...FROM WHAT I AM SEEING...MODEL GUIDANCE MIGHT
BE A TAD TOO LOW AND WILL THEREFORE WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.

ON FRIDAY...WE WILL SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF ANTI CYCLONIC RIDGING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN THE MORNING. STILL PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK WITHIN THE MODELS. BUT...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THAT MAY LIMIT THE
CONVECTION EARLY ON. BY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL INFLEXION POINT WILL SKIRT OFF TO THE
NE. FLOW CONTAINS MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WITH IMPULSES
WITHIN. MODEL MOISTURE IS ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE TOWARD 12Z. THIS
TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

SO ALL IN ALL OVER THE SHORT TERM...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. TSTMS WILL
OF COURSE BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THE MORE UNIFORM VERTICAL FLOW
PATTERN TENDS TO CUT DOWN ON OUR CAPE VALUES.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
OVER THE NEXT FEW PERIODS THROUGH SATURDAY. WHEN APPLYING THE 850 MB
TEMPS AND PARCEL MIXING...THE GFS MAX TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH.
IN FACT...WHILE I`M AT IT...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CASE IN THE
EXTENDED AS WELL. SO...WILL GO AHEAD AND UNDERCUT MAX TEMPS
THROUGHOUT THE BULK OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. AS FOR LOW TEMPS...LITTLE
DEVIATION WILL BE USED.

IN THE EXTENDED FCST...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO BUILD JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. WEAK WESTERLIES WITH HIGH HEIGHT VALUES TO PREVAIL. CAPE WILL
INCREASE AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DECREASES. STILL SEEING SOME CAP
EROSION EVERY AFTERNOON BUT POPS OF 20 PERCENT WILL BE THE MAIN
TREND. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...A WEAKENING BOUNDARY
MAY REQUIRE A 30 POP HERE AND THERE.

AGAIN...FOR THE EXTENDED TEMPS...WILL TREND TOWARD COOLER THAN THE
ADVERTISED MAXES. 96 ON MONDAY FOR BNA LOOKS TOO HIGH EVEN WITH FULL
850 MB MIXING. EURO NUMBERS LOOK MORE BELIEVABLE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

27






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 307 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WILL GRADUALLY END AROUND SUNSET. HRRR AND
GFS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAKING IT INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL
END OF FORCING FROM MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF NM
INTO WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE A LOW 10-20 POP
OUT ACROSS VAL VERDE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TONIGHT. THE LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HANGS ON ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 INTO SATURDAY.
ONE MORE DAY OF ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BEFORE DRYING TAKES
PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID LEVEL DRYING IS
INDICATED BY MODELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...
WITH FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING JUST TO NORTH. WARMING TREND
WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A MODEST
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TAKES PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BENEATH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  76  92  78  93 /  30  10  20  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  88  76  93  77  93 /  30  10  20  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  75  92  77  94 /  30  10  20  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            86  73  90  75  90 /  20  10  20  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  77  96  78  95 /  -   10  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        87  75  92  76  92 /  20  10  20  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             90  75  92  76  94 /  20  10  10  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        89  76  92  77  93 /  30  10  20  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   90  77  92  78  92 /  40  20  20  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       89  77  92  78  94 /  30  10  20  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  76  93  78  94 /  30  10  20  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

 1200 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Some local MVFR CIGS across possible across the southern terminals
through early afternoon, then scattering out to VFR. Isolated
thunderstorms may develop west of the terminals late this afternoon.
At this time, any storms that develop are expected to remain west of
the terminals through the evening hours. Another round of MVFR
stratus will spread north across the terminals late tonight into
Saturday morning. Low level southerly flow will continue the next 24
hours, with surface wind gusts to 30 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings will persist across the terminals through mid to
late morning before scattering out to VFR. Isolated thunderstorms
may develop west of the terminals late this afternoon. At this
time, any storms that develop are expected to remain west of the
terminals through the evening hours. Another round of MVFR
stratus will spread north across the terminals late tonight into
Saturday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Warm and breezy conditions can be expected across West Central Texas
again today. The thermal ridge will strongest west of the area
today, so temperatures this afternoon will be similar to yesterday
with highs topping out in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Morning low
clouds across central and southern sections will scatter out by mid
to late morning, with partly cloudy skies prevailing through
afternoon.

The dryline will set up across far eastern New Mexico into Southwest
Texas today and will mix east into far West Texas this afternoon. A
shortwave trough currently over the Four Corners region will track
east across the Central and Southern High Plains this evening. Lift
from the approaching short wave and temperatures along and ahead of
the dryline climbing into the upper 90s, should be sufficient to
weaken the CAP and allow thunderstorms to develop. Any storms that
develop will have the potential to become severe as the airmass
becomes very unstable this afternoon. Some of this activity may
reach far western counties towards evening. The RUC is the most
aggressive and brings activity into western sections this evening,
while the NAM dissipates convection just west of the area. The Texas
Tech WRF is dry. Feel reasonably confident to maintain isolated
thunder across far western portions of the Concho Valley and
Crockett county late this afternoon and to include slight POPs west
of a Haskell to Iraan line for this evening. A strong southerly low
level jet will develop this evening and may allow storms to hold
together through the late evening hours before weakening. Otherwise,
expect breezy conditions overnight with another round of low clouds
spreading north across much of the area after midnight. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the lower 70s.

JW

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

Heights aloft will begin to build over our area on Saturday, as the
upper trough departs from the Southern Plains. Sunday through at
least the middle of next week, a broad mid-upper level ridge will
envelop most of the southern CONUS. This will be our dominant
weather influence, effectively shutting off rain chances. Will have
breezy conditions with south winds Saturday through Monday with lee
side surface trough in place. Wind speeds will be lower Tuesday-
Thursday with weaker surface pressure gradient. Low-level moisture
will be on a gradually decreasing trend. By Monday, late night/early
morning low cloud development should be restricted to our
southeastern counties. Also expect to have less of a diurnal cumulus
field. The 850 mb thermal ridge will expand a bit farther east into
our area this weekend, and then change little next week. Expect
temperatures for our area to be a few degrees warmer this weekend,
and then be in a steady-state pattern next week. These readings will
be just slightly above normal for the end of June and beginning of
July.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  91  72  93  74  94 /   5  10  10  10   5
San Angelo  91  72  95  73  96 /  10  10  10  10   5
Junction  89  73  92  72  93 /   5   5  10  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

21





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

 651 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings will persist across the terminals through mid to
late morning before scattering out to VFR. Isolated thunderstorms
may develop west of the terminals late this afternoon. At this
time, any storms that develop are expected to remain west of the
terminals through the evening hours. Another round of MVFR
stratus will spread north across the terminals late tonight into
Saturday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Warm and breezy conditions can be expected across West Central Texas
again today. The thermal ridge will strongest west of the area
today, so temperatures this afternoon will be similar to yesterday
with highs topping out in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Morning low
clouds across central and southern sections will scatter out by mid
to late morning, with partly cloudy skies prevailing through
afternoon.

The dryline will set up across far eastern New Mexico into Southwest
Texas today and will mix east into far West Texas this afternoon. A
shortwave trough currently over the Four Corners region will track
east across the Central and Southern High Plains this evening. Lift
from the approaching short wave and temperatures along and ahead of
the dryline climbing into the upper 90s, should be sufficient to
weaken the CAP and allow thunderstorms to develop. Any storms that
develop will have the potential to become severe as the airmass
becomes very unstable this afternoon. Some of this activity may
reach far western counties towards evening. The RUC is the most
aggressive and brings activity into western sections this evening,
while the NAM dissipates convection just west of the area. The Texas
Tech WRF is dry. Feel reasonably confident to maintain isolated
thunder across far western portions of the Concho Valley and
Crockett county late this afternoon and to include slight POPs west
of a Haskell to Iraan line for this evening. A strong southerly low
level jet will develop this evening and may allow storms to hold
together through the late evening hours before weakening. Otherwise,
expect breezy conditions overnight with another round of low clouds
spreading north across much of the area after midnight. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the lower 70s.

JW

LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

Heights aloft will begin to build over our area on Saturday, as the
upper trough departs from the Southern Plains. Sunday through at
least the middle of next week, a broad mid-upper level ridge will
envelop most of the southern CONUS. This will be our dominant
weather influence, effectively shutting off rain chances. Will have
breezy conditions with south winds Saturday through Monday with lee
side surface trough in place. Wind speeds will be lower Tuesday-
Thursday with weaker surface pressure gradient. Low-level moisture
will be on a gradually decreasing trend. By Monday, late night/early
morning low cloud development should be restricted to our
southeastern counties. Also expect to have less of a diurnal cumulus
field. The 850 mb thermal ridge will expand a bit farther east into
our area this weekend, and then change little next week. Expect
temperatures for our area to be a few degrees warmer this weekend,
and then be in a steady-state pattern next week. These readings will
be just slightly above normal for the end of June and beginning of
July.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  91  72  93  74  94 /   5  10  10  10  10
San Angelo  91  72  95  73  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
Junction  89  73  92  72  93 /   5   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

 453 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Warm and breezy conditions can be expected across West Central Texas
again today. The thermal ridge will strongest west of the area
today, so temperatures this afternoon will be similar to yesterday
with highs topping out in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Morning low
clouds across central and southern sections will scatter out by mid
to late morning, with partly cloudy skies prevailing through
afternoon.

The dryline will set up across far eastern New Mexico into Southwest
Texas today and will mix east into far West Texas this afternoon. A
shortwave trough currently over the Four Corners region will track
east across the Central and Southern High Plains this evening. Lift
from the approaching short wave and temperatures along and ahead of
the dryline climbing into the upper 90s, should be sufficient to
weaken the CAP and allow thunderstorms to develop. Any storms that
develop will have the potential to become severe as the airmass
becomes very unstable this afternoon. Some of this activity may
reach far western counties towards evening. The RUC is the most
aggressive and brings activity into western sections this evening,
while the NAM dissipates convection just west of the area. The Texas
Tech WRF is dry. Feel reasonably confident to maintain isolated
thunder across far western portions of the Concho Valley and
Crockett county late this afternoon and to include slight POPs west
of a Haskell to Iraan line for this evening. A strong southerly low
level jet will develop this evening and may allow storms to hold
together through the late evening hours before weakening. Otherwise,
expect breezy conditions overnight with another round of low clouds
spreading north across much of the area after midnight. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the lower 70s.

JW

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)

Heights aloft will begin to build over our area on Saturday, as the
upper trough departs from the Southern Plains. Sunday through at
least the middle of next week, a broad mid-upper level ridge will
envelop most of the southern CONUS. This will be our dominant
weather influence, effectively shutting off rain chances. Will have
breezy conditions with south winds Saturday through Monday with lee
side surface trough in place. Wind speeds will be lower Tuesday-
Thursday with weaker surface pressure gradient. Low-level moisture
will be on a gradually decreasing trend. By Monday, late night/early
morning low cloud development should be restricted to our
southeastern counties. Also expect to have less of a diurnal cumulus
field. The 850 mb thermal ridge will expand a bit farther east into
our area this weekend, and then change little next week. Expect
temperatures for our area to be a few degrees warmer this weekend,
and then be in a steady-state pattern next week. These readings will
be just slightly above normal for the end of June and beginning of
July.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  91  72  93  74  94 /   5  10  10  10  10
San Angelo  91  72  95  73  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
Junction  89  73  92  72  93 /   5   5  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

VISIT...

 HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

 317 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING. THE STEADIEST RAIN IS ALREADY MOVING EAST
INTO THE CASCADES ALONG WITH A FAST MOVING PACIFIC FRONT ALOFT. THE
SURFACE FRONT LAGS BEHIND...KEEPING PERIODS OF RAIN AROUND THE
DISTRICT THIS MORNING. A SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH...AS
ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO WASHINGTON. HOWEVER THE
LONGER TERM TREND WILL BE FOR DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TO PUSH
NORTHWARD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A TALE OF TWO FRONTS THIS
MORNING...ONE ALOFT AND ONE NEAR THE SURFACE. THE FRONT ALOFT MOVED
QUICKLY THROUGH WESTERN WA/OR OVERNIGHT...SPREADING A PERIOD OF
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS BAND OF
STEADIER PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY MOVING INTO THE CASCADES...AS THE
FRONT ALOFT IS BEING HURRIED ALONG BY A STRONG 120 KT+ WESTERLY JET
STREAM NOSING INTO THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS. BY SUNRISE...THIS FRONT
ALOFT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST.

INFRARED SATELLITE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SURFACE FRONT
IS LAGGING BEHIND...AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY DETACHED FROM ITS UPPER
SUPPORT. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FRONTAL
LIFT TO CONTINUE PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
DAYBREAK.

A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE...TOUGH TO DISCERN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BUT
SEEMINGLY BETWEEN 135-140W...SEEMS TO BE MODELED WELL AND WILL MOVE
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. JET DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LIFT
AS WE REMAIN IN THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG
PACIFIC JET STREAM. AS THE SECONDARY DISTURBANCE MOVES ONSHORE...IT
WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THE LAST FEW DAYS...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE AIR MASS 500 MB AND
ABOVE IS TOO WARM TO SUPPORT THUNDER...BUT GIVEN STRONG JET STREAM
LIFT CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO MAINLY IN SW
WASHINGTON. CHANCES OF THIS IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION ARE LESS THAN 10
PERCENT...SO LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

AFTER THIS AFTERNOON...THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR THE PACIFIC JET
STREAM TO SLOWLY AIM FURTHER NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THIS WEEKEND...BUT NOT
BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM CLIPS THE PAC NW SATURDAY FOR MORE SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. BY SUNDAY IT APPEARS THE JET WILL
HAVE PUSHED FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO RELEGATE MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
SW WASHINGTON CASCADES. A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IS LIKELY ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY.

DUE TO DECENT WESTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED OROGRAPHIC LIFT...
RAINFALL TOTALS THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE IMPRESSIVE FOR JUNE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY NORTH. COAST RANGE AND CASCADE LOCATIONS
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SALEM. OROGRAPHICS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO RAINSHADOWING AND LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE WILLAMETTE
AND HOOD RIVER VALLEYS. THAT SAID...A COUPLE SPOTS COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS FROM SHOWERS WHICH COULD BRING HIGHLY LOCALIZED
TOTALS CLOSER TO ONE INCH.  WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BUILDING RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 80S BY TUESDAY. THE RIDGE IS PROGRESSIVE HOWEVER AND
THIS ALLOWS ON ONSHORE PUSH BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR NORMAL. BOTH MODELS DIG AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE COAST LATE
IN THE WEEK.  SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT APPROACHING COASTAL WATERS AT 10Z MOVING
ASHORE AROUND 12Z...AND 14Z TO 16Z TO INLAND TAF SITES BASED ON
CURRENT MOVEMENT. HEAVIEST RAIN HAS MOVED INTO THE CASCADES AS THE
UPPER PORTION OF THE FRONT SHEARED AWAY FROM THE SURFACE FRONT.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE COAST LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR LOW END VFR AFT 21Z FRI.
INLAND AREAS GENERALLY VFR BUT EXPECT MORE MVFR CIGS IN THE
2000-3000 FT RANGE FROM 12Z TO 19Z AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. SHOULD SEE MORE VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...GENERALLY VFR IN THE AREA AT 10Z BUT SHOULD
SEE MORE MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT PREDOMINANT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN THE
12Z-17Z TIME FRAME...BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE SPORADIC MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ASHORE AROUND 5 TO 6 AM. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS ENHANCED BY A COASTAL JET WILL EASE AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WIND WAVES ARE IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE WHICH WILL
TRANSITION TOWARDS A 7 TO 9 FT FRESH SWELL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. CURRENT PREDOMINANT PERIOD AROUND 6 SECONDS WILL BRING
VERY CHOPPY SEAS THIS MORNING SO HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

HIGHER PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
ALLOW SEAS TO COME DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT WINDS TO FOLLOW A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS. JBONK/MH

&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
     UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL
     11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
     SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
    WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
    WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
236 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
over much of the region today, with some thunderstorms producing
torrential rainfall. Continued unsettled weather will continue
into Saturday. A drying trend will begin on Sunday, with more
summer-like temperatures expected through much of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS THE PRIMARY CONCERN...

Today into tonight: Another active weather day is expected across
the Inland Northwest as a moist frontal system pushes across the
region during the morning and early afternoon hours. This will be
followed by a disturbance at upper levels during the afternoon
into the evening hours. A cold front is pushing across western WA
at 2:00 AM this morning. This front will push into the basin
through the early morning hours and then into the ID Panhandle by
the late morning and early afternoon hours. This will result in
another surge of moisture across the region and keep dew points
up. Clouds should begin to break up behind the front and allow
some sun breaks to occur. The atmosphere will destabilize with a
upper level disturbance pushing into the region by the afternoon.
Pwats will also continue to be high and up between 0.90-1.00
inches. Thunderstorms that do develop in the afternoon are
expected to produce torrential rainfall. These thunderstorms will
likely develop over the Cascades and into the western basin early
in the afternoon and continue across eastern WA into the ID
Panhandle through the late afternoon and evening hours. There will
be the potential for some small stream and urban flooding under
these heavy rain shafts. Ponding of water and reduced visibility
will also be a concern with the thunderstorms.

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms will be less numerous with the
best instability across the northern mtns of eastern WA and in
the ID Panhandle. These thunderstorms will also be capable of
producing heavy rain, but Pwats will be a bit less closer to 0.70
inches by this time. This should result in a lesser risk for
flooding impacts, but it will be the third day in a row of
significant rainfall for these areas. There will be a possibility
for some showers out into the basin as well, but dew points will
be on the way down as drier air finally begins to filter into the
region. Rain showers and cloud cover will result in below normal
high temperatures both today and Saturday. /SVH

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: The Inland Northwest will be
dealing with the exit of one weather disturbance on Saturday
night, followed by a final, weaker disturbance Sunday
afternoon. Lingering rainfall, with possible thunderstorms, will
be possible over far eastern Washington in the Idaho Panhandle, at
least through late evening. The next disturbance comes through
Sunday afternoon, but the ridge will start to muscle its way into
the region. This will keep most precipitation confined to the
higher terrain of northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle.
These look like they will die off with the loss of daytime
heating, and the cloud cover should also be diminishing as well.

One final thing that may be a concern will be any fog formation
for the favored northern valleys of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle. Diminishing cloud cover combined with light winds and plenty
of low level moisture could contribute to fog for a few hours
Sunday night. ty

Monday through Friday...Models are generally in good agreement
Monday through Wednesday/night...then start to fall apart. High
pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest as a deep low
pressure system moves towards the B.C. Coast. By Wednesday
afternoon the ridge axis will get pushed east of the Continental
Divide. This is where the operational models start to see some
differences. The Ensemble means/NAEFS seem to offer a consensus of
keeping the low closed through Friday...before opening the low
into a wave as it moves through the Pacific Northwest on Saturday.
For now this solution is what we will lean toward for the end of
the extended period but confidence for Friday/Saturday is less
than average.

Monday through Wednesday with the ridge over the region we expect
a warming and drying trend. Temperatures will be within a degree
or two either side of normal on Monday before warming above normal
Tuesday and Wednesday. One thing to keep an eye on is just how low
the minimum relative humidity gets during the day what the
overnight recoveries will be on mid-slopes. Looks like a small
dose of summer.

By Thursday and Friday the flow will shift to southwesterly as the
low moves towards the coast. This will open the door for increased
moisture moving in off the Pacific. Some weak vorticity lobes will
most likely spin off the main low. Combine these weak forcing
mechanisms with daytime heating and orographics and some low end
pops have been added to the Panhandle mountains for the
afternoons. Temperatures will cool off by several degrees but
remain on the warm side of normal. /Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Kept the aviation forecasts rather heavy handed and
brief in the mention of showers at times in order to better
attempt some timing between weather systems producing the
precipitation. Tonight we have an exiting system working its
way through a good number of the aviation forecast points while
a second system is making an approach and is showing up quite
well making landfall on the coast. That second system will
influence the morning and afternoon hours for Friday. Some
thunder mentioned in the afternoon as well. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  54  71  50  72  51 /  50  60  40  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  64  52  69  48  71  48 /  60  60  50  40  10  10
Pullman        66  51  69  46  70  45 /  60  60  30  10  10  10
Lewiston       72  57  76  54  77  53 /  60  60  30  10  10  10
Colville       68  52  70  48  72  49 /  70  70  60  40  10  10
Sandpoint      63  51  65  46  68  45 /  70  70  60  50  20  10
Kellogg        61  49  62  46  65  47 /  60  60  60  40  20  10
Moses Lake     78  57  80  54  80  53 /  60  30  20  10   0  10
Wenatchee      76  59  78  56  79  56 /  60  30  20  10   0  10
Omak           76  55  77  51  78  52 /  50  40  30  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
236 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
over much of the region today, with some thunderstorms producing
torrential rainfall. Continued unsettled weather will continue
into Saturday. A drying trend will begin on Sunday, with more
summer-like temperatures expected through much of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS THE PRIMARY CONCERN...

Today into tonight: Another active weather day is expected across
the Inland Northwest as a moist frontal system pushes across the
region during the morning and early afternoon hours. This will be
followed by a disturbance at upper levels during the afternoon
into the evening hours. A cold front is pushing across western WA
at 2:00 AM this morning. This front will push into the basin
through the early morning hours and then into the ID Panhandle by
the late morning and early afternoon hours. This will result in
another surge of moisture across the region and keep dew points
up. Clouds should begin to break up behind the front and allow
some sun breaks to occur. The atmosphere will destabilize with a
upper level disturbance pushing into the region by the afternoon.
Pwats will also continue to be high and up between 0.90-1.00
inches. Thunderstorms that do develop in the afternoon are
expected to produce torrential rainfall. These thunderstorms will
likely develop over the Cascades and into the western basin early
in the afternoon and continue across eastern WA into the ID
Panhandle through the late afternoon and evening hours. There will
be the potential for some small stream and urban flooding under
these heavy rain shafts. Ponding of water and reduced visibility
will also be a concern with the thunderstorms.

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms will be less numerous with the
best instability across the northern mtns of eastern WA and in
the ID Panhandle. These thunderstorms will also be capable of
producing heavy rain, but Pwats will be a bit less closer to 0.70
inches by this time. This should result in a lesser risk for
flooding impacts, but it will be the third day in a row of
significant rainfall for these areas. There will be a possibility
for some showers out into the basin as well, but dew points will
be on the way down as drier air finally begins to filter into the
region. Rain showers and cloud cover will result in below normal
high temperatures both today and Saturday. /SVH

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: The Inland Northwest will be
dealing with the exit of one weather disturbance on Saturday
night, followed by a final, weaker disturbance Sunday
afternoon. Lingering rainfall, with possible thunderstorms, will
be possible over far eastern Washington in the Idaho Panhandle, at
least through late evening. The next disturbance comes through
Sunday afternoon, but the ridge will start to muscle its way into
the region. This will keep most precipitation confined to the
higher terrain of northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle.
These look like they will die off with the loss of daytime
heating, and the cloud cover should also be diminishing as well.

One final thing that may be a concern will be any fog formation
for the favored northern valleys of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle. Diminishing cloud cover combined with light winds and plenty
of low level moisture could contribute to fog for a few hours
Sunday night. ty

Monday through Friday...Models are generally in good agreement
Monday through Wednesday/night...then start to fall apart. High
pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest as a deep low
pressure system moves towards the B.C. Coast. By Wednesday
afternoon the ridge axis will get pushed east of the Continental
Divide. This is where the operational models start to see some
differences. The Ensemble means/NAEFS seem to offer a consensus of
keeping the low closed through Friday...before opening the low
into a wave as it moves through the Pacific Northwest on Saturday.
For now this solution is what we will lean toward for the end of
the extended period but confidence for Friday/Saturday is less
than average.

Monday through Wednesday with the ridge over the region we expect
a warming and drying trend. Temperatures will be within a degree
or two either side of normal on Monday before warming above normal
Tuesday and Wednesday. One thing to keep an eye on is just how low
the minimum relative humidity gets during the day what the
overnight recoveries will be on mid-slopes. Looks like a small
dose of summer.

By Thursday and Friday the flow will shift to southwesterly as the
low moves towards the coast. This will open the door for increased
moisture moving in off the Pacific. Some weak vorticity lobes will
most likely spin off the main low. Combine these weak forcing
mechanisms with daytime heating and orographics and some low end
pops have been added to the Panhandle mountains for the
afternoons. Temperatures will cool off by several degrees but
remain on the warm side of normal. /Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Kept the aviation forecasts rather heavy handed and
brief in the mention of showers at times in order to better
attempt some timing between weather systems producing the
precipitation. Tonight we have an exiting system working its
way through a good number of the aviation forecast points while
a second system is making an approach and is showing up quite
well making landfall on the coast. That second system will
influence the morning and afternoon hours for Friday. Some
thunder mentioned in the afternoon as well. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  54  71  50  72  51 /  50  60  40  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  64  52  69  48  71  48 /  60  60  50  40  10  10
Pullman        66  51  69  46  70  45 /  60  60  30  10  10  10
Lewiston       72  57  76  54  77  53 /  60  60  30  10  10  10
Colville       68  52  70  48  72  49 /  70  70  60  40  10  10
Sandpoint      63  51  65  46  68  45 /  70  70  60  50  20  10
Kellogg        61  49  62  46  65  47 /  60  60  60  40  20  10
Moses Lake     78  57  80  54  80  53 /  60  30  20  10   0  10
Wenatchee      76  59  78  56  79  56 /  60  30  20  10   0  10
Omak           76  55  77  51  78  52 /  50  40  30  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
236 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
over much of the region today, with some thunderstorms producing
torrential rainfall. Continued unsettled weather will continue
into Saturday. A drying trend will begin on Sunday, with more
summer-like temperatures expected through much of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS THE PRIMARY CONCERN...

Today into tonight: Another active weather day is expected across
the Inland Northwest as a moist frontal system pushes across the
region during the morning and early afternoon hours. This will be
followed by a disturbance at upper levels during the afternoon
into the evening hours. A cold front is pushing across western WA
at 2:00 AM this morning. This front will push into the basin
through the early morning hours and then into the ID Panhandle by
the late morning and early afternoon hours. This will result in
another surge of moisture across the region and keep dew points
up. Clouds should begin to break up behind the front and allow
some sun breaks to occur. The atmosphere will destabilize with a
upper level disturbance pushing into the region by the afternoon.
Pwats will also continue to be high and up between 0.90-1.00
inches. Thunderstorms that do develop in the afternoon are
expected to produce torrential rainfall. These thunderstorms will
likely develop over the Cascades and into the western basin early
in the afternoon and continue across eastern WA into the ID
Panhandle through the late afternoon and evening hours. There will
be the potential for some small stream and urban flooding under
these heavy rain shafts. Ponding of water and reduced visibility
will also be a concern with the thunderstorms.

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms will be less numerous with the
best instability across the northern mtns of eastern WA and in
the ID Panhandle. These thunderstorms will also be capable of
producing heavy rain, but Pwats will be a bit less closer to 0.70
inches by this time. This should result in a lesser risk for
flooding impacts, but it will be the third day in a row of
significant rainfall for these areas. There will be a possibility
for some showers out into the basin as well, but dew points will
be on the way down as drier air finally begins to filter into the
region. Rain showers and cloud cover will result in below normal
high temperatures both today and Saturday. /SVH

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: The Inland Northwest will be
dealing with the exit of one weather disturbance on Saturday
night, followed by a final, weaker disturbance Sunday
afternoon. Lingering rainfall, with possible thunderstorms, will
be possible over far eastern Washington in the Idaho Panhandle, at
least through late evening. The next disturbance comes through
Sunday afternoon, but the ridge will start to muscle its way into
the region. This will keep most precipitation confined to the
higher terrain of northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle.
These look like they will die off with the loss of daytime
heating, and the cloud cover should also be diminishing as well.

One final thing that may be a concern will be any fog formation
for the favored northern valleys of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle. Diminishing cloud cover combined with light winds and plenty
of low level moisture could contribute to fog for a few hours
Sunday night. ty

Monday through Friday...Models are generally in good agreement
Monday through Wednesday/night...then start to fall apart. High
pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest as a deep low
pressure system moves towards the B.C. Coast. By Wednesday
afternoon the ridge axis will get pushed east of the Continental
Divide. This is where the operational models start to see some
differences. The Ensemble means/NAEFS seem to offer a consensus of
keeping the low closed through Friday...before opening the low
into a wave as it moves through the Pacific Northwest on Saturday.
For now this solution is what we will lean toward for the end of
the extended period but confidence for Friday/Saturday is less
than average.

Monday through Wednesday with the ridge over the region we expect
a warming and drying trend. Temperatures will be within a degree
or two either side of normal on Monday before warming above normal
Tuesday and Wednesday. One thing to keep an eye on is just how low
the minimum relative humidity gets during the day what the
overnight recoveries will be on mid-slopes. Looks like a small
dose of summer.

By Thursday and Friday the flow will shift to southwesterly as the
low moves towards the coast. This will open the door for increased
moisture moving in off the Pacific. Some weak vorticity lobes will
most likely spin off the main low. Combine these weak forcing
mechanisms with daytime heating and orographics and some low end
pops have been added to the Panhandle mountains for the
afternoons. Temperatures will cool off by several degrees but
remain on the warm side of normal. /Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Kept the aviation forecasts rather heavy handed and
brief in the mention of showers at times in order to better
attempt some timing between weather systems producing the
precipitation. Tonight we have an exiting system working its
way through a good number of the aviation forecast points while
a second system is making an approach and is showing up quite
well making landfall on the coast. That second system will
influence the morning and afternoon hours for Friday. Some
thunder mentioned in the afternoon as well. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  54  71  50  72  51 /  50  60  40  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  64  52  69  48  71  48 /  60  60  50  40  10  10
Pullman        66  51  69  46  70  45 /  60  60  30  10  10  10
Lewiston       72  57  76  54  77  53 /  60  60  30  10  10  10
Colville       68  52  70  48  72  49 /  70  70  60  40  10  10
Sandpoint      63  51  65  46  68  45 /  70  70  60  50  20  10
Kellogg        61  49  62  46  65  47 /  60  60  60  40  20  10
Moses Lake     78  57  80  54  80  53 /  60  30  20  10   0  10
Wenatchee      76  59  78  56  79  56 /  60  30  20  10   0  10
Omak           76  55  77  51  78  52 /  50  40  30  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
236 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
over much of the region today, with some thunderstorms producing
torrential rainfall. Continued unsettled weather will continue
into Saturday. A drying trend will begin on Sunday, with more
summer-like temperatures expected through much of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS THE PRIMARY CONCERN...

Today into tonight: Another active weather day is expected across
the Inland Northwest as a moist frontal system pushes across the
region during the morning and early afternoon hours. This will be
followed by a disturbance at upper levels during the afternoon
into the evening hours. A cold front is pushing across western WA
at 2:00 AM this morning. This front will push into the basin
through the early morning hours and then into the ID Panhandle by
the late morning and early afternoon hours. This will result in
another surge of moisture across the region and keep dew points
up. Clouds should begin to break up behind the front and allow
some sun breaks to occur. The atmosphere will destabilize with a
upper level disturbance pushing into the region by the afternoon.
Pwats will also continue to be high and up between 0.90-1.00
inches. Thunderstorms that do develop in the afternoon are
expected to produce torrential rainfall. These thunderstorms will
likely develop over the Cascades and into the western basin early
in the afternoon and continue across eastern WA into the ID
Panhandle through the late afternoon and evening hours. There will
be the potential for some small stream and urban flooding under
these heavy rain shafts. Ponding of water and reduced visibility
will also be a concern with the thunderstorms.

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms will be less numerous with the
best instability across the northern mtns of eastern WA and in
the ID Panhandle. These thunderstorms will also be capable of
producing heavy rain, but Pwats will be a bit less closer to 0.70
inches by this time. This should result in a lesser risk for
flooding impacts, but it will be the third day in a row of
significant rainfall for these areas. There will be a possibility
for some showers out into the basin as well, but dew points will
be on the way down as drier air finally begins to filter into the
region. Rain showers and cloud cover will result in below normal
high temperatures both today and Saturday. /SVH

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: The Inland Northwest will be
dealing with the exit of one weather disturbance on Saturday
night, followed by a final, weaker disturbance Sunday
afternoon. Lingering rainfall, with possible thunderstorms, will
be possible over far eastern Washington in the Idaho Panhandle, at
least through late evening. The next disturbance comes through
Sunday afternoon, but the ridge will start to muscle its way into
the region. This will keep most precipitation confined to the
higher terrain of northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle.
These look like they will die off with the loss of daytime
heating, and the cloud cover should also be diminishing as well.

One final thing that may be a concern will be any fog formation
for the favored northern valleys of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle. Diminishing cloud cover combined with light winds and plenty
of low level moisture could contribute to fog for a few hours
Sunday night. ty

Monday through Friday...Models are generally in good agreement
Monday through Wednesday/night...then start to fall apart. High
pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest as a deep low
pressure system moves towards the B.C. Coast. By Wednesday
afternoon the ridge axis will get pushed east of the Continental
Divide. This is where the operational models start to see some
differences. The Ensemble means/NAEFS seem to offer a consensus of
keeping the low closed through Friday...before opening the low
into a wave as it moves through the Pacific Northwest on Saturday.
For now this solution is what we will lean toward for the end of
the extended period but confidence for Friday/Saturday is less
than average.

Monday through Wednesday with the ridge over the region we expect
a warming and drying trend. Temperatures will be within a degree
or two either side of normal on Monday before warming above normal
Tuesday and Wednesday. One thing to keep an eye on is just how low
the minimum relative humidity gets during the day what the
overnight recoveries will be on mid-slopes. Looks like a small
dose of summer.

By Thursday and Friday the flow will shift to southwesterly as the
low moves towards the coast. This will open the door for increased
moisture moving in off the Pacific. Some weak vorticity lobes will
most likely spin off the main low. Combine these weak forcing
mechanisms with daytime heating and orographics and some low end
pops have been added to the Panhandle mountains for the
afternoons. Temperatures will cool off by several degrees but
remain on the warm side of normal. /Tobin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Kept the aviation forecasts rather heavy handed and
brief in the mention of showers at times in order to better
attempt some timing between weather systems producing the
precipitation. Tonight we have an exiting system working its
way through a good number of the aviation forecast points while
a second system is making an approach and is showing up quite
well making landfall on the coast. That second system will
influence the morning and afternoon hours for Friday. Some
thunder mentioned in the afternoon as well. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67  54  71  50  72  51 /  50  60  40  30  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  64  52  69  48  71  48 /  60  60  50  40  10  10
Pullman        66  51  69  46  70  45 /  60  60  30  10  10  10
Lewiston       72  57  76  54  77  53 /  60  60  30  10  10  10
Colville       68  52  70  48  72  49 /  70  70  60  40  10  10
Sandpoint      63  51  65  46  68  45 /  70  70  60  50  20  10
Kellogg        61  49  62  46  65  47 /  60  60  60  40  20  10
Moses Lake     78  57  80  54  80  53 /  60  30  20  10   0  10
Wenatchee      76  59  78  56  79  56 /  60  30  20  10   0  10
Omak           76  55  77  51  78  52 /  50  40  30  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1022 PM PDT THU JUN 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Showery weather with a few thunderstorms will continue through
Friday over most of the region. Lingering showers will continue
over the northeast mountains and Idaho Panhandle into Saturday
while the rest of the area begins to dry out. A return to drier
and warmer summer-like weather is expected through much of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Some of the more recent model runs that have arrived this evening,
especially the hourly HRRR model runs suggest increased pops for
Friday when another wet frontal zone makes a similar soutwest to
northeast approach. The grids may do a better job of showing the
transition between these two weather systems than the text
products do, especially in addressing the timing of intervals of
no precipitation between them. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Kept the aviation forecasts rather heavy handed and
brief in the mention of showers at times in order to better
attempt some timing between weather systems producing the
precipitation. Tonight we have an exiting system working its
way through a good number of the aviation forecast points while
a second system is making an approach and is showing up quite
well making landfall on the coast. That second system will
influence the morning and afternoon hours for Friday. Some
thunder mentioned in the afternoon as well. /Pelatti

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  72  53  71  50  72 /  60  50  40  30  20  10
Coeur d`Alene  53  69  51  69  48  70 /  50  50  60  50  30  10
Pullman        53  70  50  69  46  69 /  50  30  30  30  10  10
Lewiston       57  78  56  76  54  77 /  60  40  30  20  10  10
Colville       53  74  51  70  48  74 /  70  50  50  60  40  10
Sandpoint      52  67  50  65  46  68 /  50  60  60  60  40  20
Kellogg        51  67  50  62  46  64 /  50  50  50  70  40  20
Moses Lake     59  81  55  80  54  79 /  20  40  10  10  10   0
Wenatchee      59  79  57  78  56  79 /  30  40  10  10  10   0
Omak           56  79  53  77  51  78 /  30  30  30  30  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 942 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

LINE OF CONVECTION HEADING TOWARD THE AREA FM THE WEST. IT HAS NOT
PRODUCED MUCH IN THE WAY OF SVR WX TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING.
EXPECT IT TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS E...AND FOR SML CELLS TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN LINE. CAN/T RULE OUT
ISOLD STG WIND GUSTS INVOF CELL MERGERS...BUT THE OVERALL THREAT
OF SVR WX WL REMAIN LOW. HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN THREAT. NOT REALLY
MUCH NEW TO ADD ABOUT THE SVR RISK FOR TOMORROW.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS.  STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL FRONT OVER
MINNESOTA AND IOWA THAT IS OUTRUNNING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.  OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS MOVING NORTHWARD
OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
STATE.  ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE TO POP
UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNCAPPED.  SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO VERY WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT...BUT
COULD SEE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.  AS THE
UPSTREAM FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE REGION...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH THE
UPPER LEVEL FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE EVENING
HOURS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN FROM THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BUT
THINKING THESE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING.  THEN ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE
UPPER LEVEL FRONT FROM LATE EVENING ONWARD.  THOUGH PWATS WILL BE
UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE
DIMINISHING WITH TIME TONIGHT.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW SUSTAINED
ELEVATED CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG DURING THIS PERIOD WHEN STORMS SHOULD
BE PUSHING THROUGH.  WITH FORCING ON THE WEAKER SIDE AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEARS ONLY 15-20 KTS...AM THINKING THAT THE LINE OF STORMS
WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.  HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS BUT THEY SHOULD BE
MOVING THROUGH AT A MODERATE CLIP THERE BY KEEPING THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THREAT IN CHECK.  MUGGY LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NE WISCONSIN UNTIL
THE UPPER FRONT CLEARS DOOR COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR BY LATE
MORNING.  THEREAFTER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TAKING UP SHOP
OVER THE LAKE WINNIPEG REGION AS A BEEFY 100KT JET STREAK ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE LOW.  SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING TAKE PLACE FROM
MID-MORNING ONWARD AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THE
CLEARING SKIES WILL SERVE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH PEAK
HEATING AHEAD OF A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA.
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACCOMPANYING THE JET
STREAK...WILL START RAMPING UP THE SHOWER AND STORM THREAT BY
MID-AFTERNOON.  LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TOMORROW AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO TODAYS READINGS...SO BOOSTED UP MAXES A COUPLE DEGREES.
ML CAPES SHOULD STILL REMAIN IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE BUT 0-6KM
BULK SHEARS WILL INCREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE JET STREAK TO 35-45
KNOTS.  IF ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CAN GENERATE A FEW
STORMS...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG WIND
FIELDS.  A DISCRETE STORM MODE WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY
STORMS...WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND A TORNADO. AT THIS TIME...THINKING ISOLATED TO LOW
END SCATTERED COVERAGE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

SEVERE TSTM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...AND A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED SEVERE CONVECTION MAY BE
ONGOING OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...AIDED
BY THE TAIL END OF A S/W TROF...A JET STREAK...STRONG INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF WIND
SHEAR...SUPERCELLS OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE EXPECTED. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...AND BE SUSTAINED
BY THE RRQ OF AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. HAVE GONE
WITH HIGH-END CHANCE OR LOW-END LIKELY POPS...DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
IN LOCATION AND TIMING. WITH H8 DEW POINTS INCREASING TO +12 TO
+16 C AND K-INDICES OF 35 TO 40... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO ANTICIPATED.

ON MONDAY...MODELS DEPICT A GENERAL LULL IN THE CONVECTION DURING
THE MORNING...ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECHARGE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT SEVERE CONVECTION TO FIRE AGAIN
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH C/NE WI
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...THE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL
BE AIDED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVG WITH THE RRQ OF A 100 KT JET
STREAK. MODELS HAVE SOME CRITICAL DIFFERENCES...WHICH WILL HAVE
A HIGH IMPACT ON THE FCST. FIRST OF ALL...THE ECMWF IS SLOWER
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HEAVIER PCPN...DELAYING IT UNTIL MONDAY
EVENING...WHILE THE GEM/GFS BRING A BULLSEYE INTO THE RGN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER KEY FEATURE IS THE PRESENCE OF A SFC LOW
RIPPLING NE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE ECMWF/NAM MODEL RUNS.
IF THIS OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BECOME MUCH MORE FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2 INCHES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS AN OBVIOUS CONCERN.

WILL ISSUE AN ESF TO ADDRESS THE HYDRO CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING...
ALLOWING PCPN TO END AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
S/W TROF WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN SCT SHRA/ISOLD
TSRA. PCPN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MIDWEEK...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AXIS SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE ECMWF
ACTUALLY HAS SOME SIGNIFICANT PCPN OVER THE FA ON WEDS NGT...
BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE ANOTHER COUPLE MODEL RUNS BEFORE JUMPING ON
THAT TREND.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW BRINGING
A CHANCE OF TSTMS AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WARM AND MUGGY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THEN DROP BLO NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. A
RETURN TO NORMAL READINGS IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

MAIN TAF ISSUE WL BE TIMING THE EWD MVMT OF THE LINE OF STORMS
COMING INTO THE AREA FM THE W. SOME BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE LINE...BUT REALLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW
CIGS TO THE W. WL ADJUST THE TIMING WITH THE NEW TAF
ISSUANCE...THOUGH THE GIST OF THE FCST WL REMAIN THE SAME.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF DENSE FOG OFFSHORE FROM
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL DOOR COUNTY. DUE TO JUICY AIR FLOWING
OVER THE COLDER WATERS...DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW NIGHT AND POSSIBLY
INTO MONDAY. WILL KEEP THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR STARTERS. BUT DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW...NO
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED DUE TO THE FOG AND COLD
WATERS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
MARINE.........MPC








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREEN BAY WI

 646 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS.  STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL FRONT OVER
MINNESOTA AND IOWA THAT IS OUTRUNNING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.  OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS MOVING NORTHWARD
OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
STATE.  ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE TO POP
UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNCAPPED.  SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO VERY WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT...BUT
COULD SEE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.  AS THE
UPSTREAM FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE REGION...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH THE
UPPER LEVEL FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE EVENING
HOURS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN FROM THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BUT
THINKING THESE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING.  THEN ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE
UPPER LEVEL FRONT FROM LATE EVENING ONWARD.  THOUGH PWATS WILL BE
UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE
DIMINISHING WITH TIME TONIGHT.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW SUSTAINED
ELEVATED CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG DURING THIS PERIOD WHEN STORMS SHOULD
BE PUSHING THROUGH.  WITH FORCING ON THE WEAKER SIDE AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEARS ONLY 15-20 KTS...AM THINKING THAT THE LINE OF STORMS
WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.  HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS BUT THEY SHOULD BE
MOVING THROUGH AT A MODERATE CLIP THERE BY KEEPING THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THREAT IN CHECK.  MUGGY LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NE WISCONSIN UNTIL
THE UPPER FRONT CLEARS DOOR COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR BY LATE
MORNING.  THEREAFTER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TAKING UP SHOP
OVER THE LAKE WINNIPEG REGION AS A BEEFY 100KT JET STREAK ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE LOW.  SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING TAKE PLACE FROM
MID-MORNING ONWARD AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THE
CLEARING SKIES WILL SERVE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH PEAK
HEATING AHEAD OF A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA.
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACCOMPANYING THE JET
STREAK...WILL START RAMPING UP THE SHOWER AND STORM THREAT BY
MID-AFTERNOON.  LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TOMORROW AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO TODAYS READINGS...SO BOOSTED UP MAXES A COUPLE DEGREES.
ML CAPES SHOULD STILL REMAIN IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE BUT 0-6KM
BULK SHEARS WILL INCREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE JET STREAK TO 35-45
KNOTS.  IF ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CAN GENERATE A FEW
STORMS...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG WIND
FIELDS.  A DISCRETE STORM MODE WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY
STORMS...WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND A TORNADO. AT THIS TIME...THINKING ISOLATED TO LOW
END SCATTERED COVERAGE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

SEVERE TSTM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...AND A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED SEVERE CONVECTION MAY BE
ONGOING OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...AIDED
BY THE TAIL END OF A S/W TROF...A JET STREAK...STRONG INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF WIND
SHEAR...SUPERCELLS OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE EXPECTED. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...AND BE SUSTAINED
BY THE RRQ OF AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. HAVE GONE
WITH HIGH-END CHANCE OR LOW-END LIKELY POPS...DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
IN LOCATION AND TIMING. WITH H8 DEW POINTS INCREASING TO +12 TO
+16 C AND K-INDICES OF 35 TO 40... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO ANTICIPATED.

ON MONDAY...MODELS DEPICT A GENERAL LULL IN THE CONVECTION DURING
THE MORNING...ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECHARGE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT SEVERE CONVECTION TO FIRE AGAIN
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH C/NE WI
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...THE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL
BE AIDED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVG WITH THE RRQ OF A 100 KT JET
STREAK. MODELS HAVE SOME CRITICAL DIFFERENCES...WHICH WILL HAVE
A HIGH IMPACT ON THE FCST. FIRST OF ALL...THE ECMWF IS SLOWER
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HEAVIER PCPN...DELAYING IT UNTIL MONDAY
EVENING...WHILE THE GEM/GFS BRING A BULLSEYE INTO THE RGN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER KEY FEATURE IS THE PRESENCE OF A SFC LOW
RIPPLING NE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE ECMWF/NAM MODEL RUNS.
IF THIS OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BECOME MUCH MORE FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2 INCHES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS AN OBVIOUS CONCERN.

WILL ISSUE AN ESF TO ADDRESS THE HYDRO CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING...
ALLOWING PCPN TO END AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND
S/W TROF WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN SCT SHRA/ISOLD
TSRA. PCPN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MIDWEEK...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AXIS SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE ECMWF
ACTUALLY HAS SOME SIGNIFICANT PCPN OVER THE FA ON WEDS NGT...
BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE ANOTHER COUPLE MODEL RUNS BEFORE JUMPING ON
THAT TREND.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW BRINGING
A CHANCE OF TSTMS AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WARM AND MUGGY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...THEN DROP BLO NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. A
RETURN TO NORMAL READINGS IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

NO SIG CHGS TO THE TAFS THIS EVENING. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WL CONT TO
DEVELOP INLAND FM THE LAKE THIS EVENING...BUT OTHER THAN RHI AT
THE START OF THE FCST...NOTHING TAKING DIRECT AIM ON ANY OF THE
TAF SITES. MAIN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WL ARRIVE LATER TNGT. IT SHOULD
BE WEAKENING BY THEN...BUT PROBABLY STILL PRODUCE SOME PRETTY
HEAVY RAINS. TIMING OF REDEVELOPMENT SUN MORE IN QUESTION. LEFT
LATTER PART OF THE TAFS DRY FOR NOW...BUT WL PROBABLY INCLUDE
TSRA/SHRA LATE TOMORROW AFTN/EVE IN THE 06Z ISSUANCE ONCE TIMING
IS A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED.
&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF DENSE FOG OFFSHORE FROM
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL DOOR COUNTY. DUE TO JUICY AIR FLOWING
OVER THE COLDER WATERS...DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW NIGHT AND POSSIBLY
INTO MONDAY. WILL KEEP THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR STARTERS. BUT DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW...NO
BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED DUE TO THE FOG AND COLD
WATERS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
MARINE.........MPC








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 625 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRACKING INTO THE AREA WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DESPITE A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING
THROUGH WESTERN IOWA TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF DYNAMICAL
FORCING...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
DOWNSTREAM...THE STORMS HAVE FALLEN APART IN ORGANIZATION. PART OF
THE PROBLEM AS REFERENCED IN SPCS MESO DISCUSSION 1192 IS THE
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE INTO THE MID-
LEVELS...WHICH GIVEN THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION TO THE LINE IS
NOT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED DAMAGING WINDS. MOST OF THE WIND GUSTS
THUS FAR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE...SO THINKING
THE DAMAGING WIND CONCERN IS DIMINISHING.

FARTHER OUT IN TIME...SOME UNCERTAINTY HAS DEVELOPED FOR SUNDAY.
THE 28.12Z ECMWF...REGIONAL CANADIAN...HI RES ARW/NMM MODELS AND
THE 28.18Z NAM/GFS ARE CONVECTING STORMS SOONER AND FARTHER EAST THAN
WHAT IS IN THE FORECAST. WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS EARLY AS 18Z IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. THIS WILL BE
LOOKED AT MORE THROUGH THE EVENING TO SEE IF SOME FORECAST
ADJUSTMENTS ARE REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND.

WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ND THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. FEED OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WAS
PRODUCING SEVERAL LINES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MN/IA...AND
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OTHERWISE...A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND CONVECTION THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. CONSENSUS OF MESO-WRF MODELS CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH/FRONT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NAM 0-1KM
MLCAPE IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20KT.
MEANWHILE... PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES.
SO...INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR PERHAPS SOME ORGANIZED LINE/S OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. RAP ALSO SHOWING SOMEWHAT ENHANCED NON-
TORNADIC SUPERCELL SIGNATURE FOR PERHAPS A BRIEF SPIN-UP OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE/S OF
CONVECTION. APPEARS RIGHT NOW THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE IN THE
4-10 PM TIME FRAME. APPEARS THE TROUGH AND BULK OF THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...AFTER A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE ACTION...PLAN ON
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA MAINLY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN
WI THROUGH CENTRAL IA. THERE WILL BE AMPLE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE
30-35KT RANGE AND MUCAPE IN THE 1800-2500J/KG GOING INTO SUNDAY
EVENING FOR A ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MID-LEVELS WILL ALSO BE IN
COOLING MODE FOR STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY MONDAY.

MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN GENERATING A MID-
LEVEL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND RACING ITO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM SOUTHERN WI INTO CENTRAL IA.
MODEL CONSENSUS 0-3KM MUCAPE RUNNING SOMEWHERE AROUND 1200J/KG
ALONG/NORTH OF I-94...TO NEAR 3000J/KG ACROSS NORTHEAST IA. THE NAM
IS THE MOST BALLISTIC WITH CAPE NEARING 5500J/KG BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST IA. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL INDICATING AMPLE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN
THE 35-55KT RANGE. SO...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SHOT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. TORNADO/LARGE HAIL THREAT ALSO
LOOKS HIGHER FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WI INTO NORTHEAST IA WHERE
NAM INDICATES STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES IN THE 500-700 RANGE.
LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MID-LATE EVENING HOURS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS/ECMWF INDICATING COOLER/CYCLONIC
FLOW DOMINATING THE REGION. TUESDAY LOOKS PRIME FOR SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH COLDEST
POOL OF AIR ALOFT.

FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY...SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS ARISE
AS THE ECMWF BUILDS A FLAT RIDGE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS COOLER/BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE  A
COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENCOMPASS SOUTHEAST MN AND
NORTHEAST IA...AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG I-35. SOME OF
THE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40 KT...ALONG WITH
IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES AND AT LEAST SCT IFR/MVFR CEILINGS.
ANTICIPATING THESE TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS UNTIL ABOUT 08Z
WHEN THE TROUGH PASSES. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE EXISTS NEAR THE GROUND WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
MVFR STRATUS DECK AND MVFR BR. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD HELP GET RID
OF THE MVFR CONDITIONS BY 16Z. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS MN AND IA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THERE IS A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR STORMS TO FORM ON
THIS TROUGH...BUT WHEN IS THE QUESTION. SOME MODELS BRING STORMS
THROUGH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 18-21Z...OTHERS WAIT CLOSER TO 00Z.
SINCE THERE APPEARS TO BE A TREND OF SOONER...HAVE PUT A VCTS AT
RST STARTING AT 18Z AND AT LSE STARTING AT 20Z...CONTINUING THEN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. COULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IF THEY
ARE LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

PLAN ON PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH. DUE TO MOSTLY TRANSITORY NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION...FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY END UP BEING MORE OF A
LOCALIZED THREAT. HOWEVER...IF TRAINING OCCURS...HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE PROBLEMATIC. THIS COULD BE THE ISSUE MORE ON MONDAY. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH

PLAN ON THE MAIN STEM OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH NEXT
WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...DAS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 1145 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND
WHERE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR AND 500MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SLOW MOVING
TROUGH OVER WESTERN IOWA DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. A BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH ALONG THE NOSE OF A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
JET. 0-3KM MUCAPE IS FAIRLY WEAK AT 500-1000 J/KG AND IS FORECAST
TO STAY AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AT 20KTS...NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THIS
CONVECTION TO BECOME UNRULY THIS MORNING.

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS MORNING BEHIND THIS BAND...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY INITIATE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. 27.06Z RAP
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO DEEP WIND
SHEAR. WITH SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER UP AROUND
1.50-2.00INCHES...EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM TODAYS/TONIGHT
CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THE MAIN STORY OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD IS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING APPEARS
TO BE THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WITH BOTH EVENTS LIKELY
INITIATING TO OUR WEST AND THEN COMING THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR SATURDAY...CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL INITIATE ALONG/AHEAD
OF A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT IN
WESTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPORT ANY CONVECTION TRACKING TO
THE EAST AS PART OF A SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. DEEP SHEAR
DOES NOT LOOK THAT GREAT...BUT IS FAIRLY DECENT IN THE LOWEST 3KM
WHICH MAY SUPPORT MORE OF A WIND THREAT. THE 27.00Z GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGER 500-300MB QG FORCING WILL BE OUT IN
WESTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA IN THE AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS IT AS IT MOVES
IT INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE 27.00Z GFS DOES APPEAR
TO BE ODD MODEL OUT AS IT IS SLOWER AND MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH QPF
AMOUNTS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS HITTING THE MID/UPPER 70S...WHICH
IS WAY TOO HIGH. OVERALL THINKING IS THAT TIMING WILL BE THE
BIGGEST ISSUE WITH HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE AS
THE LATER IN THE NIGHT THAT THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...THE LESS
LIKELY IT IS TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS/HEAVY RAIN
LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS TO THE REGION IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

IF YOU DISCOUNT THE 27.00Z GFS...MUCH OF SUNDAY SHOULD END UP DRY
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION AGAIN OCCURRING OUT
TOWARD SIOUX FALLS SD ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE MUCH MORE UNSTABLE THAN WHAT
WE HAVE FOR SATURDAY WHICH...ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
LLJ...SHOULD HELP TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION RUNNING EAST INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY EVENING. THE QUESTION FOR THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE
WITH HOW DEEP THE WIND SHEAR WILL BE AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH.
A STRONG 50-80KT 500MB JET STREAK WILL BE ROUNDING THE TROUGH AND
MOVING INTO MINNESOTA SUNDAY EVENING...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE TRAILING BEHIND THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WHERE THE STORMS DEVELOP. 0-3KM SHEAR STILL LOOKS STRONG AT
25-40KTS...SO WIND MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN HAZARD AGAIN. WHILE
THE STRONGER 0-6KM SHEAR APPEARS TO LAG BEHIND THE
CONVECTION...THE 0-1KM SHEAR/HELICITY ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. SO...CAN NOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME QLCS TYPE TORNADOES SIMILAR TO
WHAT OCCURRED BACK ON THE 16TH.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MONDAY AND SEE WHERE THE COLD FRONT
ENDS UP DURING THE DAY. THE 27.00Z ECMWF IS A TAD SLOWER THAN THE
GFS/GEM AND KEEPS SOME WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE
DAY ALONG THE FRONT. BEYOND THAT...THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS
FAIRLY DECENT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION/WARM AIR TO
DEAL WITH. HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S GOING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

TIMING THE PERIODS OF SHRA/TS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE GOING TO
POSE SOME CHALLENGES. JUICY/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW ANY
BOUNDARY/FORCING MECHANISM TO SPARK PRECIPITATION...AND THE SMALL
FEATURES ARE NOT NECESSARILY CAPTURED WELL BY THE MODELS. EVEN THE
SHORT-TERM/MESO MODELS WILL DISAGREE. ANTICIPATE CAREFUL
INTERROGATION OF SFC DATA/SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS WILL LIKELY BE
THE BEST WAY TO NARROW TIMING...ALTHOUGH THIS MIGHT RESULT IN
MINIMAL LEAD TIME. WILL TRY TO NARROW POTENTIAL SHRA/TS PERIODS DOWN
WITH VCTS/VCSH GROUPS IN THE LATER PERIODS...HIGHLIGHTING MORE
LIKELY PERIODS IN THE NEAR TERM. ANTICIPATE IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOST
THUNDERSTORMS.

MEANWHILE...NAM/GFS ADAMANT ABOUT BRINGING IN IFR/MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS OVERNIGHT...WITH NEAR SFC INVERSION TRAPPING THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. ALL THIS DESPITE RELATIVELY STIFF SFC WINDS NEAR 10 KTS.
WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT OVERLY HIGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME MAINLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
TODAY WITH ANY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR FLASH
FLOODING MAY COME IN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A NUMBER OF SYSTEMS
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO AN AIR MASS THAT IS LOADED WITH
MOISTURE. WITH RIVERS ALREADY ELEVATED DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAIN...SOME ADDITIONAL RISES MAY OCCUR. THE MISSISSIPPI WILL
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO RUN OFF UPSTREAM FROM
LAST WEEKS RAINFALL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....HALBACH



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 643 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND
WHERE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR AND 500MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SLOW MOVING
TROUGH OVER WESTERN IOWA DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. A BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH ALONG THE NOSE OF A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
JET. 0-3KM MUCAPE IS FAIRLY WEAK AT 500-1000 J/KG AND IS FORECAST
TO STAY AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AT 20KTS...NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THIS
CONVECTION TO BECOME UNRULY THIS MORNING.

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS MORNING BEHIND THIS BAND...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY INITIATE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. 27.06Z RAP
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO DEEP WIND
SHEAR. WITH SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER UP AROUND
1.50-2.00INCHES...EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM TODAYS/TONIGHT
CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THE MAIN STORY OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD IS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING APPEARS
TO BE THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WITH BOTH EVENTS LIKELY
INITIATING TO OUR WEST AND THEN COMING THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR SATURDAY...CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL INITIATE ALONG/AHEAD
OF A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT IN
WESTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPORT ANY CONVECTION TRACKING TO
THE EAST AS PART OF A SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. DEEP SHEAR
DOES NOT LOOK THAT GREAT...BUT IS FAIRLY DECENT IN THE LOWEST 3KM
WHICH MAY SUPPORT MORE OF A WIND THREAT. THE 27.00Z GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGER 500-300MB QG FORCING WILL BE OUT IN
WESTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA IN THE AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS IT AS IT MOVES
IT INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE 27.00Z GFS DOES APPEAR
TO BE ODD MODEL OUT AS IT IS SLOWER AND MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH QPF
AMOUNTS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS HITTING THE MID/UPPER 70S...WHICH
IS WAY TOO HIGH. OVERALL THINKING IS THAT TIMING WILL BE THE
BIGGEST ISSUE WITH HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE AS
THE LATER IN THE NIGHT THAT THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...THE LESS
LIKELY IT IS TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS/HEAVY RAIN
LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS TO THE REGION IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

IF YOU DISCOUNT THE 27.00Z GFS...MUCH OF SUNDAY SHOULD END UP DRY
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION AGAIN OCCURRING OUT
TOWARD SIOUX FALLS SD ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE MUCH MORE UNSTABLE THAN WHAT
WE HAVE FOR SATURDAY WHICH...ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
LLJ...SHOULD HELP TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION RUNNING EAST INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY EVENING. THE QUESTION FOR THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE
WITH HOW DEEP THE WIND SHEAR WILL BE AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH.
A STRONG 50-80KT 500MB JET STREAK WILL BE ROUNDING THE TROUGH AND
MOVING INTO MINNESOTA SUNDAY EVENING...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE TRAILING BEHIND THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WHERE THE STORMS DEVELOP. 0-3KM SHEAR STILL LOOKS STRONG AT
25-40KTS...SO WIND MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN HAZARD AGAIN. WHILE
THE STRONGER 0-6KM SHEAR APPEARS TO LAG BEHIND THE
CONVECTION...THE 0-1KM SHEAR/HELICITY ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. SO...CAN NOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME QLCS TYPE TORNADOES SIMILAR TO
WHAT OCCURRED BACK ON THE 16TH.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MONDAY AND SEE WHERE THE COLD FRONT
ENDS UP DURING THE DAY. THE 27.00Z ECMWF IS A TAD SLOWER THAN THE
GFS/GEM AND KEEPS SOME WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE
DAY ALONG THE FRONT. BEYOND THAT...THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS
FAIRLY DECENT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION/WARM AIR TO
DEAL WITH. HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S GOING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

A SERIES SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST ROUND IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
TAF SITES. MEASO MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE TAFS SITES BY 27.15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
27.20Z AND 27.02Z. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR.

WITH THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A MVFR/IFR DECK OF
CLOUDS DEVELOPING AROUND 28.08Z...ADDED THIS TO BOTH TAF SITES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME MAINLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
TODAY WITH ANY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR FLASH
FLOODING MAY COME IN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A NUMBER OF SYSTEMS
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO AN AIR MASS THAT IS LOADED WITH
MOISTURE. WITH RIVERS ALREADY ELEVATED DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAIN...SOME ADDITIONAL RISES MAY OCCUR. THE MISSISSIPPI WILL
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO RUN OFF UPSTREAM FROM
LAST WEEKS RAINFALL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 339 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND
WHERE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR AND 500MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SLOW MOVING
TROUGH OVER WESTERN IOWA DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. A BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH ALONG THE NOSE OF A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
JET. 0-3KM MUCAPE IS FAIRLY WEAK AT 500-1000 J/KG AND IS FORECAST
TO STAY AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AT 20KTS...NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THIS
CONVECTION TO BECOME UNRULY THIS MORNING.

AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS MORNING BEHIND THIS BAND...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY INITIATE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. 27.06Z RAP
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO DEEP WIND
SHEAR. WITH SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER UP AROUND
1.50-2.00INCHES...EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM TODAYS/TONIGHT
CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THE MAIN STORY OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD IS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING APPEARS
TO BE THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WITH BOTH EVENTS LIKELY
INITIATING TO OUR WEST AND THEN COMING THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR SATURDAY...CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL INITIATE ALONG/AHEAD
OF A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT IN
WESTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPORT ANY CONVECTION TRACKING TO
THE EAST AS PART OF A SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. DEEP SHEAR
DOES NOT LOOK THAT GREAT...BUT IS FAIRLY DECENT IN THE LOWEST 3KM
WHICH MAY SUPPORT MORE OF A WIND THREAT. THE 27.00Z GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGER 500-300MB QG FORCING WILL BE OUT IN
WESTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA IN THE AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS IT AS IT MOVES
IT INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE 27.00Z GFS DOES APPEAR
TO BE ODD MODEL OUT AS IT IS SLOWER AND MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH QPF
AMOUNTS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS HITTING THE MID/UPPER 70S...WHICH
IS WAY TOO HIGH. OVERALL THINKING IS THAT TIMING WILL BE THE
BIGGEST ISSUE WITH HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE AS
THE LATER IN THE NIGHT THAT THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...THE LESS
LIKELY IT IS TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS/HEAVY RAIN
LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS TO THE REGION IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

IF YOU DISCOUNT THE 27.00Z GFS...MUCH OF SUNDAY SHOULD END UP DRY
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION AGAIN OCCURRING OUT
TOWARD SIOUX FALLS SD ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE MUCH MORE UNSTABLE THAN WHAT
WE HAVE FOR SATURDAY WHICH...ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
LLJ...SHOULD HELP TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION RUNNING EAST INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY EVENING. THE QUESTION FOR THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE
WITH HOW DEEP THE WIND SHEAR WILL BE AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH.
A STRONG 50-80KT 500MB JET STREAK WILL BE ROUNDING THE TROUGH AND
MOVING INTO MINNESOTA SUNDAY EVENING...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE TRAILING BEHIND THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WHERE THE STORMS DEVELOP. 0-3KM SHEAR STILL LOOKS STRONG AT
25-40KTS...SO WIND MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN HAZARD AGAIN. WHILE
THE STRONGER 0-6KM SHEAR APPEARS TO LAG BEHIND THE
CONVECTION...THE 0-1KM SHEAR/HELICITY ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. SO...CAN NOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME QLCS TYPE TORNADOES SIMILAR TO
WHAT OCCURRED BACK ON THE 16TH.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MONDAY AND SEE WHERE THE COLD FRONT
ENDS UP DURING THE DAY. THE 27.00Z ECMWF IS A TAD SLOWER THAN THE
GFS/GEM AND KEEPS SOME WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE
DAY ALONG THE FRONT. BEYOND THAT...THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS
FAIRLY DECENT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION/WARM AIR TO
DEAL WITH. HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S GOING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF I-90 AS
OF 05Z...ASSOCIATED WITH MORE HUMID AIR ADVANCING NORTHWARD. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WHILE SPREADING
NORTHWARD...IMPACTING BOTH TAF SITES FROM THE 06-14Z PERIOD. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER UNTIL 12Z...HAVE INCLUDED VCTS. ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF THE STORMS PRECLUDES STRAIGHT TS MENTION. VISIBILITIES
ARE LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR...EITHER FROM A RESULT OF PRECIPITATION
RATE OR FROM THE DEVELOPMENT OF BR. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z...RESULTING IN A BREAK. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN WESTERN IOWA WILL THEN MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST MN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALLOWING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE ONLY HIGH ENOUGH
TO MENTION VCTS AT RST. MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY MAY STAY WEST OF
LA CROSSE SO ONLY VCSH MENTIONED THERE. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...SO ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN AND
THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH...ANTICIPATING THE PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH. THEREFORE...HAVE A DRY FORECAST AFTER 02Z. OVERALL
ANTICIPATING CEILINGS TO STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME MAINLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
TODAY WITH ANY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR FLASH
FLOODING MAY COME IN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A NUMBER OF SYSTEMS
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO AN AIR MASS THAT IS LOADED WITH
MOISTURE. WITH RIVERS ALREADY ELEVATED DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAIN...SOME ADDITIONAL RISES MAY OCCUR. THE MISSISSIPPI WILL
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO RUN OFF UPSTREAM FROM
LAST WEEKS RAINFALL.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 411 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
352 AM CDT

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
MAINLY LATER TONIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXIST. VERY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE
GRADUAL COOLING/DRYING TREND BEGINS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY
AND MILD WEATHER LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE 4TH OF JULY FRIDAY...THEN
WARMING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AGAIN LATER
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE THREAT
OF RAIN QUICKLY SHIFTING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO INDIANA SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. WEAK HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP KEEP THINGS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME CAP IS LIKELY TO BE
PRESENT AS INDICATED IN SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...WRF AND RAP SUGGEST
WEAKER CAPPING. SUSPECT A COUPLE OF MCVS ARE PRESENT UPSTREAM WITH
SMALL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS NOTED OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST IA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD AID IN LOCALLY
WEAKENING CAP AND PRODUCING SOME FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM ABOUT 3 PM INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS ANTICIPATED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING STORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
INTO A SEVERE MCS WHICH WOULD THEN SPREAD EAST INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL TIMING AFTER DARK
WOULD SUGGEST WEAKENING OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE FARTHER EAST
TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPC HAS EXPANDED THEIR DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS MOST OF THE IL PORTION OF OUR CWA...WITH ENHANCED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT EXTENDING INTO WESTERN IL. DECAYING REMAINS OF OVERNIGHT
MCS SHOULD WORK TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THE COMBINATION OF A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
APPEARS FAIRLY HIGH FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY
2 OUTLOOK PLACES ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED
PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW
EVOLUTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ESPECIALLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST. SEVERE
THREAT...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVERALL...WILL THEN DECREASE
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.

A SLOW COOLING/DRYING TREND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TUESDAY-THURSDAY...
AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRAVERSE THE SLOW MOVING LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY
QPF DURING THE TRANSITION...MAINLY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY SPREADS INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY IN TIME FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY...
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SUNDAY LOOKS
WARMER AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS INTO THE MIDWEST...THOUGH WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOO.

TEMPERATURE WISE...BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH 850 MB TEMPS +20 TO +22 C. HAVE AGAIN GONE
ABOVE MOS NUMBERS FOR MAXES...BASED ON 925/950 MB THERMAL FIELDS AND
LOCAL CLIMO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS/CLOUD COVER REMAIN THE WILD
CARDS WITH HIGH TEMPS...THOUGH LOW 90S SHOULD BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHERE SUFFICIENT SUN/HEATING OCCUR.
TEMPS THEN FALL OFF INTO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE LATER IN THE WEEK...
WITH ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING LAKE SHORE AREAS IN THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...

* SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 10Z-11Z.
* MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID MORNING...POSSIBLE IFR CIGS.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
* CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CMS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 09Z...

LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CHICAGO TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE BUT
STILL AN OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKE AS WELL AS SOME IN
CLOUD LIGHTNING THUS MAINTAINED VCTS FROM AN EARLIER AMENDMENT.
WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE LINE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL THEN SETTLE BACK TO
SOUTHWEST.

SCT/BKN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS LINE WITH LOW MVFR CIGS
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN. LARGE AREA OF LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN IL BACK INTO EASTERN IOWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING SPECIFIC CIG HEIGHTS BUT EXPECT LOW MVFR CIGS...1-2KFT...
TO SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE TERMINALS AN HOUR OR SO AFTER PRECIP
ENDS AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR
WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT RFD. CMS

PREVIOUS 06Z DISCUSSION...

LINE OF SHRA/TSRA STEADILY MOVING EAST WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
FROM PIA TO AAA. WHILE SOME DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO
SUNRISE AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION...SHOULD SEE THUNDER AT
DPA/RFD WITH AT LEAST SHRA AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL FURTHER EAST. IN
ADDITION...STRONGER CELLS NEAR THE QUAD CITIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCING
A WESTERLY OUTFLOW WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE. ONCE
THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS AND/OR DISSIPATES
LATER THIS MORNING...BULK OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS APPEAR TO BE DRY
WITH LITTLE TO FOCUS NEW SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT BUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA OR TSRA WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. A BIT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA ARRIVES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH CONFIDENCE REGARDING
TIMING/COVERAGE IS LOW.

CIGS ARE QUITE VARIABLE BEHIND THE LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR AND
PATCHY IFR. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...EXPECT RAIN TO ALLOW
MVFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW LOW THEY WILL
BECOME OR IF CIGS WILL DEVELOP. THOUGH CIGS COULD BE IN THE IFR
RANGE AT RFD...SHOULD THEY OCCUR.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND
THE LINE OF SHRA/TSRA AND THEN BEGIN TO GUST LATER THIS MORNING...
INTO THE MID/UPPER TEEN KT RANGE. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AND GUSTS
DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET. CMS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...

* HIGH FOR SHRA/TSRA ENDING 10Z-11Z.
* MEDIUM FOR MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...LOW FOR IFR CIGS.
* HIGH FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.
* LOW FOR SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CMS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

* SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF TSRA LATE.
* MONDAY...TSRA LIKELY.
* TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR.

BEACHLER

&&

.MARINE...

307 AM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO MONDAY REACHING JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN WINDS
WILL SHIFT WESTERLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE TODAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO TONIGHT WHILE THE DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN MORE
PATCHY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. CMS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.

&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 353 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
352 AM CDT

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
MAINLY LATER TONIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXIST. VERY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE
GRADUAL COOLING/DRYING TREND BEGINS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY
AND MILD WEATHER LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE 4TH OF JULY FRIDAY...THEN
WARMING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AGAIN LATER
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE THREAT
OF RAIN QUICKLY SHIFTING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO INDIANA SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. WEAK HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP KEEP THINGS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME CAP IS LIKELY TO BE
PRESENT AS INDICATED IN SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...WRF AND RAP SUGGEST
WEAKER CAPPING. SUSPECT A COUPLE OF MCVS ARE PRESENT UPSTREAM WITH
SMALL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS NOTED OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST IA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD AID IN LOCALLY
WEAKENING CAP AND PRODUCING SOME FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM ABOUT 3 PM INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS ANTICIPATED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING STORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
INTO A SEVERE MCS WHICH WOULD THEN SPREAD EAST INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL TIMING AFTER DARK
WOULD SUGGEST WEAKENING OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE FARTHER EAST
TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPC HAS EXPANDED THEIR DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS MOST OF THE IL PORTION OF OUR CWA...WITH ENHANCED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT EXTENDING INTO WESTERN IL. DECAYING REMAINS OF OVERNIGHT
MCS SHOULD WORK TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THE COMBINATION OF A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
APPEARS FAIRLY HIGH FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY
2 OUTLOOK PLACES ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED
PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW
EVOLUTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ESPECIALLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST. SEVERE
THREAT...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVERALL...WILL THEN DECREASE
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.

A SLOW COOLING/DRYING TREND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TUESDAY-THURSDAY...
AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRAVERSE THE SLOW MOVING LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY
QPF DURING THE TRANSITION...MAINLY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY SPREADS INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY IN TIME FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY...
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SUNDAY LOOKS
WARMER AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS INTO THE MIDWEST...THOUGH WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOO.

TEMPERATURE WISE...BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH 850 MB TEMPS +20 TO +22 C. HAVE AGAIN GONE
ABOVE MOS NUMBERS FOR MAXES...BASED ON 925/950 MB THERMAL FIELDS AND
LOCAL CLIMO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS/CLOUD COVER REMAIN THE WILD
CARDS WITH HIGH TEMPS...THOUGH LOW 90S SHOULD BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHERE SUFFICIENT SUN/HEATING OCCUR.
TEMPS THEN FALL OFF INTO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE LATER IN THE WEEK...
WITH ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING LAKE SHORE AREAS IN THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* SHRA...POSSIBLE TSRA...09Z-13Z.
* POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
* CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CMS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

LINE OF SHRA/TSRA STEADILY MOVING EAST WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
FROM PIA TO AAA. WHILE SOME DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO
SUNRISE AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION...SHOULD SEE THUNDER AT
DPA/RFD WITH AT LEAST SHRA AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL FURTHER EAST. IN
ADDITION...STRONGER CELLS NEAR THE QUAD CITIES HAVE BEEN PRODUCING
A WESTERLY OUTFLOW WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE. ONCE
THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS AND/OR DISSIPATES
LATER THIS MORNING...BULK OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS APPEAR TO BE DRY
WITH LITTLE TO FOCUS NEW SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT BUT AN ISOLATED
SHRA OR TSRA WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. A BIT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA ARRIVES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH CONFIDENCE REGARDING
TIMING/COVERAGE IS LOW.

CIGS ARE QUITE VARIABLE BEHIND THE LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR AND
PATCHY IFR. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...EXPECT RAIN TO ALLOW
MVFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW LOW THEY WILL
BECOME OR IF CIGS WILL DEVELOP. THOUGH CIGS COULD BE IN THE IFR
RANGE AT RFD...SHOULD THEY OCCUR.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND
THE LINE OF SHRA/TSRA AND THEN BEGIN TO GUST LATER THIS MORNING...
INTO THE MID/UPPER TEEN KT RANGE. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AND GUSTS
DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET. CMS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH FOR SHRA...LOW FOR TSRA...09Z-13Z.
* MEDIUM FOR MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
* HIGH FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.
* LOW FOR SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CMS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

* SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF TSRA LATE.
* MONDAY...TSRA LIKELY.
* TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
* THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR.

BEACHLER

&&

.MARINE...

307 AM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO MONDAY REACHING JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN WINDS
WILL SHIFT WESTERLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE TODAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO TONIGHT WHILE THE DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN MORE
PATCHY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. CMS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.

&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 357 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION MAINLY THIS MORNING. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE BACK IN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. REGIONAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S TODAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014


CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE APPROACH OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.

LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS MAKING PROGRESS EAST FROM SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED
MID LEVEL WAVE. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR ACTIVITY TO SHIFT MORE NE
THAN E AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WITH TIME. UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING SURFACE BASED
CAPES 500 TO 1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES -3 TO -5 C. HRRR 00Z AND
02Z RUNS BOTH DEPICTED OVERALL SETUP QUITE WELL...DOWN TO ISOLATED
CONVECTION NW OF CHICAGO AND A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVER LK MI. IF
FOLLOWING AT FACE VALUE THEN CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE BUT
EVENTUALLY FALL APART TOWARDS MORNING AS MAIN ENERGY LIFTS NORTH.
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...THESE SAME RUNS DO SHOW SOME WIDELY SCT TO
MAYBE SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 14Z AS LEFTOVERS AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ILLINOIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES THROUGH. SMALL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH TROUGH QUICKLY EXITING BY 20Z WITH RAPID
DECREASE IN PRECIP AFTER THAT. PREVIOUS GRIDS ALREADY HAD MORNING
TREND IN PLACE AND NO REASON TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES. ALSO...MID RANGE
CHC POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH AT MOST CHANGE TO SCT WORDING.
SOME CONCERN THAT LITTLE OVERALL PRECIP MAY OCCUR. CLEARING WILL
TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE MID 80S.

TROUGH WILL NOT REALLY TAKE ANY OF THE LOW LEVEL MSTR WITH IT AS
DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE UPR 60S TO LOWER 70S...YIELDING A MUGGY NIGHT
FOR THE REGION WITH LOWS AROUND 70. ON THE PLUS SIDE...DRY FORECAST
SHOULD EXIST WITH FORCING MECHANISMS TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE
AREA.


&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE OPENING INTO A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS TROUGH WILL HELP DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR LOCAL
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY MID WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS IN THE BEGINNING PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. A VERY WARM AND MOIST MONDAY IS ON TAP WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER AND EVEN MID 70S. PWAT VALUES
NEARING 2 INCHES AND CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2-3K J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH VALUES LESS THAN 7C/KM AND NO STRONG
TRIGGER NOTED. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND INDUCED VORTICITY
MAXIMA REMAIN POSSIBLE AND COULD EASILY IGNITE SCATTERED TSRA. THUS
LOW CHANCE POPS WARRANTED FOR MONDAY. LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BE BE
MOVING INTO UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. TIMING NOT IDEAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT EXPECT ORGANIZED
LINE OF STORMS UPSTREAM IN THE EVENING WITH A FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FOR WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH CHANCE POP EAST INTO TUE
MORNING.

DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY FALL TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA. MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH REGION WEDNESDAY
AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION SO WILL HOLD
ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR THEN EXPECTED WED
NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. STAYED WITH ALLBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

NO CHANGES TO 00Z TAFS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
IN THE 11Z THROUGH 20Z TIME FRAME AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN
ILLINOIS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN PRIOR TO 12Z WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR REDEVELOPMENT AS HEATING COMMENCES SUN MORNING. HOWEVER...MANY
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST AT BEST SCT COVERAGE WITH IMPACTS
TO TAF SITES POSSIBLY NIL OR SO BRIEF THAT INCLUSION IN TAF WOULD
BE OF LIMITED IF ANY BENEFIT. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT A DRY FORECAST
AND WILL REVISIT FOR 12Z ISSUANCE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...FISHER


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 333 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

08Z water vapor imagery shows a closed low along the ND/Canadian
boarder with zonal flow from the central plains through the eastern
Pacific ocean. At the surface, a surface low was north of ND with a
trough of low pressure extending south through the Dakotas and into
the southern high plains. Obs indicate a very moist low level
airmass with dewpoints in the lower 70s is currently advecting
northwest into the central high plains. This moisture advection
along with convergence along the nose of the low level jet have
combined to produce elevated thunderstorms across western KS.

For today, the models show little in the way of synoptic scale
forcing upstream of the forecast area, and they keep the broad
surface trough of low pressure to the west of the area. This should
allow for the moist airmass to remain over the area and with daytime
heating, become very unstable by this afternoon. The RAP and NAM
show surface based CAPE values around 4000 J/kg developing as highs
warm to around 90. Additionally there is not much in the way of
inhibition to convection. So the concern is any little vort max
could set off robust convection today. The RAP and NAM want to bring
just such a vort max, generated from the elevated convection over
western KS, over northeast KS during peak heating. In addition to
the potential instability, deep layer shear should be stronger with
the zonal flow aloft increasing mid level winds. Models prog 0-6 km
shear could increase to around 50 KTS. So while forcing is not
all that great, the combination of shear and instability could be
more than enough for severe thunderstorms if the trigger comes along
and sets off convection. The main concerns with storms would be
large hail and torrential rainfall due to steep mid level lapse
rates and high PWs. 0-1 KM shear parameters appear to favor any
tornado potential just to the north of the forecast area until the
early evening when storms may have evolved into an MCS. However any
discrete storm that may interact with an outflow boundary and
locally backed winds could see an enhances tornado potential this
afternoon across northeast KS. Of course this is expecting the
elevated convection to the west to fall apart or dive southeast
this morning as the high res models have suggested. Because of this
there still remains some uncertainty in how storms will evolve
through the day. At this point, the forecast expects the convection
to the west to weaken before getting to deep into eastern KS as the
boundary layer mixes out and convergence along the low level jet
diminishes. Then storms may form over southeast NEB or northern KS
early this afternoon.

For tonight a moist and unstable airmass is anticipated to persist
through the night as the low level jet redevelops. So while storms
from the afternoon and early evening may eventually move east, it is
hard to rule out possible elevated convection forming during the
overnight. Convergence and instability look better across northern
KS and into NEB so this is where the forecast will hold onto some
chance POPs through the overnight. Temps will be warm overnight as a
muggy airmass hangs in across the area. Lows are forecast to be in
the lower and mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

Another day of conditional severe convection is expected on Monday
afternoon. The main exception would be the cold front providing a
more organized area of lift to initiate late afternoon/early evening
thunderstorms. On the other hand, a wrench in the forecast could be
in the mesoscale features of how Sunday evening`s storm complex
evolves across the area. Believe the latest NAM may be a bit too
fast pushing the line of convection east before midnight while
developing an additional storm complex over Nebraska, impacting
northeast KS by midday Monday. This would offer little or no time
for the atmosphere to recover. Otherwise the GFS and ECMWF have been
in more consistent agreement of seeing some decent clearing across
central and east central areas Monday morning/afternoon. Unusually
high moisture content present with dewpoint temps progged in the low
to mid 70s will create a sharp instability gradient. Portions of
northeast, east central and central KS may see surface CAPE values
in excess of 4000 J/KG while deep layer shear resides in the 40 to
50 kt range. If we can realize a dry period and clearing on Monday,
scattered strong to severe storms are possible along and ahead of
the front. Best timing would be during the late afternoon when a
strong capping inversion erodes.

Second story of note for Monday will be the heat and humidity.
Strong surface heating/mixing ahead of the boundary will contribute
to highs in the lower and middle 90s. Heat indicies appear to be
much higher as strong moisture pooling in the 70s bring readings in
the 100 to 103 range. If we are able to mix slightly warmer
temperatures downward, we may be close to advisory criteria.

Main change to the forecast is with increasing precip chances
further north late Monday evening into Tuesday as operational
guidance is showing increasing similarities in a stout shortwave
trough rounding the base of the broad upper trough axis over Kansas.
In addition, decent frontogenesis in the 850-700 mb layer provides
an enhanced area of lift for showers developing over central Kansas,
tracking east into the CWA. Instability is limited with main
concerns being light to moderate rainfall. Dependent on the speed
and intensity of the showers, localized flooding is possible.
Locations south of Interstate 70 see the best possibility of the
this occurrence, based on the track of the upper trough. In addition
to the precip chances, high temps Tuesday behind the front were
lowered to near 80 degrees under mostly cloudy skies.

With ridging to our west and no apparent areas of upper forcing,
have opted to go dry Wednesday through late Friday evening.
Independence Day at this time is mostly dry and warm with an incoming
wave tracking east across the weakening ridge. The GFS is much
faster than the ECMWF so will keep slight chances across northern
areas late Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

Earlier fairly brief MVFR cigs and continued moistening lower
levels bring increased potential for limitations in the next
several hours. Expect most issues to come via cigs again. Heights
not obvious but low MVFR to near IFR seem the most likely. Will go
ahead with VCTS around 0Z given continued guidance agreement.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...65







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

 300 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LINGERING OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS FROM
EARLIER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS WANING AND
SHOULD DIMINISH BY MORNING. A NEW COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...NEAR AND ALONG I-70. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD WITH TIME THIS MORNING.
OVERNIGHT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S WITH LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

TODAY:
SHORT-TERM HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE SHOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING SATURDAYS RUNS AND THE
LATEST HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE EXTENT OF THE
COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AND
SKIES TO CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME TEMPS MAY TAKE A HIT
FROM EARLY CLOUDS...BUT HAVE REMAINED ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO BE BETWEEN 100-105.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NEBRASKA
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
IMPACT MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS POSSIBLE...THE
BETTER CHANCES LIE ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. THESE
STORMS HAVE THE CHANCE TO BE SEVERE WITH 1500-3000 J/KG CAPE AND
30-40 KTS SHEAR.

MONDAY - TUESDAY:
THIS PERIOD ALSO LOOKS ACTIVE WITH THE NEXT WAVE PUSHING A FRONT
THROUGH KANSAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHWARD REACHING SOUTHERN KANSAS BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FIRST CONCERN ON MONDAY IS GOING TO BE
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A JUICY AIRMASS. THIS
WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO BE BETWEEN 100-105 AGAIN. AVOID OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES DURING THE PEAK OF THE DAY IF POSSIBLE.

THE SECOND CONCERN MONDAY EVENING WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A
LATER START...POST 00Z FOR THIS ACTIVITY. THERE IS PLENTIFUL CAPE
AND SHEAR MEANING THAT THESE STORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE CHANCES
TO BE SEVERE.

THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH TUESDAY AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER WITH THE COMBINATION OF BEING NORTH OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS
THE CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH...MEANING KANSAS HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF A FEW DRY AND COOLER
DAYS FOR MID-LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE WIND FIELD TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN. WITH THE PLAINS
BEING IN SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. THESE MAY HELP TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. DETAILS WILL BE BETTER DETERMINED AS THE
TIME PERIOD NEARS. OVERALL A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF THE
FORECAST.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST BY 06-08Z...AS UPPER
TROUGH AXIS ADVANCES EAST OF THE AREA. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES AND DIURNAL COOLING SETS IN AMIDST RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...THINKING AREAS OF LOW MVFR TO HIGH IFR
CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS ARE A GOOD BET THROUGH EARLY TO MID-MORNING
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...STRENGTHENING 850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
WEST/SOUTHWEST KS AROUND 09Z...POSSIBLY AFFECTING LOCATIONS
GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF I-135 AFTER SUNRISE. INSERTED VCSH FOR NOW
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
UPGRADE TO VCTS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    91  73  96  68 /  40  20  20  70
HUTCHINSON      91  73  97  65 /  40  20  20  70
NEWTON          91  71  95  65 /  40  20  20  70
ELDORADO        90  72  93  66 /  40  20  20  70
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  73  94  68 /  30  20  20  70
RUSSELL         92  71  91  62 /  30  20  10  70
GREAT BEND      91  72  94  62 /  40  20  10  70
SALINA          93  74  96  65 /  40  20  10  60
MCPHERSON       92  72  96  65 /  40  20  20  70
COFFEYVILLE     90  74  92  70 /  20  20  20  50
CHANUTE         89  73  91  68 /  20  20  20  70
IOLA            89  73  91  68 /  20  20  20  70
PARSONS-KPPF    89  74  91  68 /  20  20  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

 336 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be a possibility today
as the Quad State region remains in a warm, moist, and unstable
environment. Specifically, showers and thunderstorms have developed
overnight over portions of southeast Missouri, northeast Arkansas,
and western Tennessee in response to the approach of a mid level
shortwave trough and the development of weak mid level convergence
in advance of this feature. Utilizing the HRRR and various runs of
the NAM-WRF, anticipate the activity to our southwest will continue
to spread northeast through early morning. Southeast Missouri, far
southern Illinois, and much of western Kentucky will see the
greatest coverage, with lesser coverage further north. As the wave
begins to shift east of the area, the overall chance of showers
and thunderstorms will decrease from west to east this afternoon
and evening. Temperatures will be highly dependent on how much
sunshine we see today, but current thinking is most areas will be
able to make mid 80s by afternoon.

Model forecast soundings indicate a drying of the mid atmosphere
as the northern periphery of an upper level ridge over the
southern U.S. briefly becomes more influential on Monday. As a
result, most areas should remain precipitation free, though an
isolated thunderstorm is certainly possible. With more sunshine,
temperatures will climb back into the lower 90s Monday and
Tuesday. Heat index readings will likely peak near 100 degrees
both Monday and Tuesday across much of the area.

Late Monday night and especially Tuesday, the chance of showers
and thunderstorms will be on the increase as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Isolated strong to severe storms
cannot be ruled out during this time, but the potential for
organized severe weather appears rather low at this point.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

Upper trof still forecast to move slowly east across the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region late Tuesday through Thursday. Until
the final h5 trof axis swings through Thursday, will have to linger
PoPs for convection through Wednesday night given the active SW flow
ahead of the h5 trof, causing a slow SE frontal movement. Once the
mid level trof axis moves through Thursday, the flow aloft will turn
NW with high pressure building into the region into the first part
of the weekend. This change will allow for slightly lower
temperatures and humidity, including for the 4th of July holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

Convection from earlier this evening continues to weaken as it
moves through southeast Missouri. Added a brief VCTS to KCGI. Conditions
should remain VFR overnight. Approaching shortwave will bring MVFR cigs
and a chance of thunder by mid morning Sunday. Winds will remain
out of the south at 5 to 10 mph.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...ML







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 345 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SIMILAR SET UP AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH A
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST...NOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY LYING OVER EAST KENTUCKY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WELL AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW IS KEEPING A SUPPLY OF WARM AND HUMID
AIR ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. AS SUCH...DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 60S THROUGH THE AREA WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO
HIGHER IN MOST PLACES. ON RADAR...A LATE EVENING LULL IN ACTIVITY HAS
RETURNED TO EAST KENTUCKY AS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERNMOST
COUNTIES HAVE FADED OUT. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHOWERS IS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...HEADING TOWARD THE CWA. ON SATELLITE...MID LEVEL
CLOUDS BRIEFLY REDEVELOPED EARLIER BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH A NEW UPSURGE IS NOTED IN RECENT IMAGES. SO FAR THERE
HAS BEEN ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP THE FOG FROM SHOWING UP TOO THICK
IN THE AREA OBS AND WEB CAMS.

THE MODELS ARE AGAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THEY ALL TAKE THE DEEP AND BROAD CLOSED LOW FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS CIRCULATION WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NATION WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY
RIPPLING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FLANK AND BRUSHING PAST KENTUCKY. THE
LEADING ONE OF THESE WILL PASS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER
HELPING TO FURTHER SUPPRESS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. ANOTHER MINOR WAVE
WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. HEIGHTS OVER KENTUCKY WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED INTO MONDAY EVENING EVEN THOUGH THE
SOUTHERN RIDGE TRIES TO EDGE BACK NORTH INTO KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT...AND THE SMALL SCALE OF THE DETERMINATIVE
FEATURES...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MODEL BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SHOWERS...AND THEN INCREASINGLY
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY TODAY AND PEAKING IN
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO DAYS ANY STORM
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH PWS...GREATER
THAN 1.7 INCHES...AND FAIRLY SLOW MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT CAN BE
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW WITH PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...A CONCERN ALONG
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. FOR MONDAY...THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE A TAD
DRIER...BUT THIS MAY ONLY SERVE TO ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS AND STORMS
DRIVEN BY THE BETTER INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESSER THAN THAT OF TODAY.

THE BCCONSSHORT WAS TAKEN FOR A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD
GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN THE BCCONSALL USED
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RIDGE AND
VALLEY SPOTS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP PRETTY CLOSE TO A MOS
BLEND...WITH A DIURNAL FLARE...THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS THE APPALACHIAN REGION OF
EASTERN KY OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO ONTARIO...ALLOWING A DEEP TROUGH TO MOVE INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION
EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
AMPLITUDE AS IT DOES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP A STRONG HOLD
ACROSS THE SE DURING THIS TIME...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BE SUPPRESSED
MORE SWRD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
AND LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO CEASE ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WHILE A BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CORRESPOND WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL BLOCK THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THIS FRONT. AS A RESULT...STILL EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT
AND WEAKEN ACROSS KENTUCKY DURING THE MIDWEEK.  BEFORE IT IS FINALLY
ABLE TO DROP SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...WINDS WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO A MORE NRLY DIRECTION...AND DRIER MORE STABLE AIR
WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION. POPS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH CLOUDS FOLLOWING SUIT. TEMPS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DROP BY THURSDAY...REACHING THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT
WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY IN THE AIR. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SHOULD
KEEP POPS OUT OF EASTERN KY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...GOOD DIURNAL RADIATION WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING
HIGH TEMPERATURES /BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S/ FOR
SATURDAY...WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
THE LOW 60S OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

FOG WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
SKIES HAVE CLOUDED BACK UP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. NEARLY CALM
SURFACE WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...HELPING TO SUSTAIN ANY FOG. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS
TO DROP DOWN TO IFR OR WORSE EVENTUALLY EARLY THIS MORNING. ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
THREATEN ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN TEMPOS
WERE INTRODUCED IN THE TAFS FOR MVFR VIS FROM SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 425 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP CLOSED LO
JUST SW OF LK WINNIPEG UPSTREAM OF UPR RDG SRETCHING FM HUDSON BAY
INTO THE SE CONUS. VIGOROUS SHRTWV LIFTING NNEWD THRU MN IN THE SLY
FLOW ALF BTWN THESE FEATURES AND ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC OVER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E/PWAT UP TO 1.70 INCHES /175 PCT
OF NORMAL/ IS CAUSING A BAND OF SHOWERS/TS FM WRN LK SUP SWD THRU
WRN UPR MI AND WI. OTHER ISOLD SHRA/TS HAVE FORMED OVER THE SCENTRAL
CWA TO THE E OF THE MAIN LINE OF SHRA/TS WHERE LATEST RUC SHOWS MORE
VIGOROUS H85 THETA E ADVCTN AND ANOTHER WEAKER SHRTWV IN ADVANCE OF
THE MAIN FEATURE. DESPITE THE RATHER VIGOROUS DYNAMIC FORCING...
FAIRLY SHARP NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN INTO THE MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS/WEAK DEEP LYR 0-6KM SHEAR GENERALLY NO GREATER THAN
20-25KTS/WEAK DOWNDRAFT CAPE HAS LIMITED THE INTENSITY OF THE TS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHOWER/TS LINE.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS SHORT TERM PACKAGE INCLUDE SHOWER/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV IN MN EARLY THIS MRNG AND OTHER DISTURBANCES
ROTATING ARND MAIN CLOSED LO IN SRN CANADA.

EARLY THIS MRNG/TODAY...MN SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC ARE PROGGED TO SWING NEWD THRU UPR MI/LK SUP INTO ONTARIO
EARLY THIS AFTN...GIVING WAY TO A PERIOD OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/
MID LVL DRYING. THE LATEST RUC AND THE BULK OF THE OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN WL OCCUR UNDER THE
BETTER FORCING AND CONTRIBUTE TO FALLING MUCAPES IN THE ABSENCE OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SUSPECT THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS/TS WL TEND TO
DIMINISH AS THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE NE THRU THE CWA. LIKE THE
AREA OF SHOWERS/TS THAT FORMED OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA EARLIER WELL IN
ADVANCE OF THE LARGER LINE OF SHOWERS...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS/SOME TS
TO DVLP E OF THE LARGER SCALE LINE WHERE H85 THETA E ADVCTN WL BE
MORE SUBSTANTIAL. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON THIS EXPECTATION. ALL OF THESE SHOWERS/TS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NE
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING DYNAMICS THIS AFTN. NEXT CONCERN IS WHETHER
MORE SHRA/TS WL DVLP THIS AFTN WITH THE RETURN OF SOME CLRG
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE AXIS OF LOWER H85 THETA E AND THE
PSBL APRCH OF ANOTHER SHRTWV NOW MOVING E THRU SDAKOTA TO THE S OF
THE CLOSED LO. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF H85 THETA E ADVCTN
REDVLPG LATER TODAY AT A TIME WHEN THIS SHRTWV WL BE APRCHG FM THE
W. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WL BE THE LARGER SCALE DRYING LEFT IN
THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS FCST TO DROP PWAT CLOSE
TO AN INCH. WL GO NO HIER THAN LO CHC POPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY DESPITE
FCST STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES UP TO 7-7.5C/KM ENHANCED BY DAYTIME
HEATING THAT WL LIFT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FM THE COOLING
INFLUENCE OF LK MI.

TNGT...DISTURBANCE THAT MIGHT CAUSE SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS/TS WL
SHIFT TO THE NE LATER IN THE EVNG. MODELS THEN HINT ANOTHER STRONGER
SHRTWV/AREA OF DPVA AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL APRCH LATER AT
NGT. WENT WITH THE HIER POPS OVER THE SE CWA CLOSER TO AXIS OF HIER
H85 THETA E AND WHERE THE 12Z ECMWF CONSISTENT 00Z CNDN MODELS SHOW
THE HIER QPF. SINCE THE BULK OF THE MODELS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR
PERSISTING OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA WITH MEAN H85-5 RH AS LO AS
30-40 PCT...OPTED TO KEEP THESE AREAS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
CLOSE OFF TODAY AND BE NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT OVER LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ON MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE MERGING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER FAR NORTHERN
CANADA MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...IT WILL LEAVE A TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TRANSITION TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS OVER LAKE WINNIPEG MONDAY MORNING...THERE
LOOKS TO BE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE EXACT TRACK/TIMING OF
THESE WAVES HAVE BEEN VARYING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IT
APPEARS ONE WILL SHIFT THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES...ALONG WITH A COLD
FRONT. PINNING DOWN THE TIMING/LOCATIONS OF THESE WAVES IS ALWAYS
DIFFICULT AND WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY LINGER SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA ON MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA.
THEN...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST TREND IS FOR THIS WAVE AND
SURFACE TROUGH TO KICK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN (FOLLOWING STORM MOTION AND FORWARD PROPAGATING
CORFIDI VECTORS). WHERE THAT DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WILL BE THE KEY TO
MONDAY NIGHTS FORECAST AND WITH THE TREND TOWARDS IT BEING FARTHER
SOUTH...HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN SOME OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING (KEEPING LIKELY VALUES RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND DIMINISHING CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST). ALSO
FOR MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEST HALF WILL SEE BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS. HAVE TRENDED WINDS UP SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TREND TOWARDS
MORE SUN AND BETTER MIXING INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND HAVE
GUSTS TO 30KTS FOR THE WEST HALF/THIRD. IN ADDITION...WITH THE
TREND TOWARDS BETTER MIXING...THERE ARE INDICATIONS DEWPOINTS COULD
MIX OUT AND FALL LOWER THAN THE LOW/MID 50S CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST. MIXED LAYER DEWPOINT VALUES FROM THE MODELS ARE HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR VALUES TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S...BUT THINK A
LOT DEPENDS ON EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION. WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS...MIXING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S WOULD CREATE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS (RH FALLING INTO UPPER 20S
ALTHOUGH THE WEST HAS SEEN THE MOST PRECIP LATELY)...SO WILL NEED TO
WATCH THAT POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT DAY.

BEHIND THE MONDAY EVENING WAVE...SHOULD GET A DRY PERIOD AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BUT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO DIURNAL
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAND AREAS...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO HAVE TRENDED POPS UP
TO HIGH END CHANCES OVER THE AFTERNOON AND ATTEMPTED TO SHOW A RAMP
UP DURING THE MORNING. WITH ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 100-400 J/KG
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH DIURNAL HEATING LOST...THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SHOWER CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END.

EXPECT A MUCH COOLER PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
(FROM A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS) NOSES EAST INTO THE
AREA. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTOLLING THINGS...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR WED/THURS AND GENERALLY IN THE 60S. WILL
NEED TO WATCH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE TRENDED LOWS DOWN A
LITTLE...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE COLD SPOTS OUT
WEST APPROACH 40 OR EVEN UPPER 30S.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PULLING OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND THE
HIGH CENTER SHIFTING EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR NO PRECIP ON THE 4TH
OF JULY DUE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE STILL OVER THE AREA.
THEREFORE...HAVE PULLED THE PRECIPITATION MENTION. CONFIDENCE
DECREASES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SINCE THE 00Z MODEL
RUNS ARE ONLY SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE...HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN
TO LOW END CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MOVING N JUST TO THE E OF KSAW MAY IMPACT
THAT SITE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TS WILL
AFFECT KIWD AND KCMX EARLY THIS MRNG...BUT THE COVERAGE OF THE TSRA IS
TOO SPARSE TO JUSTIFY A SPECIFIC FCST ATTM FOR THOSE SITES. SOUTHERLY
FLOW OFF LK MICHIGAN SHOULD RESULT IN STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING AT KSAW
FOR A TIME. UNCERTAIN HOW DEVELOPED THIS WILL BE SO PUT THE CIGS
RIGHT AT THRESHOLD FOR ALTERNATE MIN OF 600 FT. COULD EASILY BE BLO
THAT GIVEN THIS PATTERN BUT NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN ON THIS.
EVENTUALLY SHRA/TSRA WILL WORK EAST OUT OF THE TERMINALS BY LATER
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOMING MORE SWRLY WILL ALLOW ANY FOG/STRATUS
AT KSAW TO DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY. AFTN SHOULD BE GENERALLY QUIET THOUGH
WILL SEE INCREASING SW WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY OVER 25 KTS...ESPECIALLY
AT KIWD AND KSAW. NEXT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ARRIVES ON SUNDAY EVENING.
BETTER CHANCES MAY HOLD OFF TIL AFT 06Z SO KEPT OUT OF TAFS ATTM.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WARM AIR MOVING OVER THE COOL LAKE
SUPERIOR WATERS...EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO KEEP WINDS BELOW 25KTS
DURING THIS TIME. THE HUMID AIR WILL ALSO PRODUCE FOG OVER PORTIONS
OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UP TO
20KTS. THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AND LEAD TO WEAKENING WINDS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLA/KC
MARINE...SRF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS DULUTH MN

 1234 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW
CIRCULATION OVER THE BISMARK AREA...WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
INITIATE ALONG A LINE FROM GENERALLY FARGO...THROUGH THE BRAINERD
AREA...AND WESTERN TWIN CITIES METRO. LATEST RUC MESO- ANALYSIS
DEPICTS THE DEVELOPING STORMS ARE ALONG AN AXIS OF INCREASING ML
CAPE/ERODING CIN...ALONG WITH STRONG SHEAR. EXPECT THIS LINE OF
STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EAST. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT SITUATION AND SUGGESTS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE OF
STORMS REACHES THE AREAS OF KINL...TO KHIB...AND EXTENDS SOUTH
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 00Z...BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVER MUCH
OF THE DLH CWA BY 03Z.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR THESE STORMS REMAINS HEAVY DOWNPOURS/LOCALIZED
FLOODING...POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS/WIND DAMAGE...AND A POSSIBLE
TORNADO. THERE IS A MINIMAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL DUE TO FREEZING
LEVELS AROUND 14 KFT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

A STACKED LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM SRN MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO
SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INVERTED SFC
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SRN MN INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA...WHICH WILL
CLIP SECTIONS OF NW WI WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW LATE TUE
THROUGH THUR...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP
OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWER
80S...BUT A COOL DOWN IS LIKELY TUE AND WED WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S AND LOWER 70S. A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ARRIVES LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S THUR AND FRI.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE RISING BACK INTO THE 60S BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

A BATCH OF SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE HYR VCNTY BY 09Z LEAVING SOME BR
BEHIND WITH MVFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR WAS
OCCURRING OVER THE TERMINALS IN WAA AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
WESTERN MN AT 03Z. SOME PATCHY BR WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE TERMINALS.
EXPECT THIS FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID MORNING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCT STORMS WILLAFFECT ALL TERMINALS BUT BRD
THROUGH 00Z...THEN DIMINISHING BY 03Z. VFR AND MVFR CIGS WILL
OCCUR UNTIL DRY AIR ARRIVES AFTER 03Z THEN VFR IS EXPECTED. GUSTY
SFC WINDS ARE FORECAST JUST AFTER 12Z AND WILL LAST UNTIL SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  75  55  65 /  20  20  30  40
INL  62  72  53  63 /  50  70  50  40
BRD  62  79  57  70 /  10  30  40  30
HYR  63  81  57  69 /  30  40  20  40
ASX  61  81  56  68 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ140>143.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...CLC






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 1113 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP 500MB HEIGHTS
AND WINDS SHOWED A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH THE NE/IA BORDER. A FEW EMBEDDED VORTICITY
MAXIMA WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST AND PROVIDE
UPPER LEVEL ASCENT NEEDED FOR SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED WARM FRONT WAS
LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN...AS EVIDENT BY THE SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
FRONT...AND SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH LOW 60 DEWPOINTS ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE FRONT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LED TO A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING NORTHWEST MN DOWN
THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA.

RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF CONVECTION SHOW
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOPAUSE...SO LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF DEEP LAYER DIRECTION SHEAR. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN SPEED
WITHIN THE LOWER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE RESULTED IN 15 TO 25KTS
OF 1KM SHEAR. MLCAPE WAS 1500 TO 2000J/KG...WHILE THE 0-3KM CAPE
AROUND 50J/KG. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM CDT. THE HIRES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CONVECTION WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING AS IT
CROSSES INTO WESTERN WI AND OUTRUNS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...BUT IN
THE MEAN TIME A FEW STRONG WINDS COULD MIX DOWN WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIP CORES...SO FEEL THAT DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
LOW LCLS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO...BUT AT THIS TIME
HODOGRAPHS WOULD NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.

THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS
IN IS WAKE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL APPROACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE WEST OF THE CWA. THIS
DRY SLOT IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES
NEAR 3000J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
TO AROUND 50KTS...BUT THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WHICH IS BETTER TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS IOWA. THEREFORE WE STILL HAVE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THE STORMS ARE ABLE
TO FIRE IN SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN. IF THEY DO...EXPECT THEM TO QUICKLY
TURN SEVERE...WITH HIGH END SEVERE POSSIBLE...MEANING HAIL OVER 2
INCHES...AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75MPH. AS OF NOW...THE BEST CHANCE
IS IN SOUTHEASTERN MN...GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM FAIRMONT MN
THROUGH MANKATO MN TO RED WING MN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

LONG TERM ANALYSIS/FORECASTING CUT SHORT TODAY WITH BOTH
FORECASTERS FOCUSED ON SHORT TERM DUTIES. OVERALL...THE LONG TERM
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MASSIVE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
THE FA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONG WESTERLIES EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TO MUCH OF THE CONVECTION BY THE
TIME SUNDAY NIGHT ARRIVES WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN FA. SOME BRIEF DRYING WILL OCCUR DURING THE NIGHT...BUT A
SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WESTERN WI BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THE
SOUTHERN ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EAST WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS BEGIN
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE OVER
THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH SIMILAR HIGHS AND YET ANOTHER THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AS THE FINAL SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH. THURSDAY IS OUR
ONLY SOLID DRY DAY BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY
ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN FROM THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY (4TH OF
JULY) AND SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING OUT OF WESTERN WI...THE TAF SITES
SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN VFR TONIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG
GIVEN THE RAIN LAST NIGHT...BUT THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDS AND
LINGERING BREEZES SHOULD KEEP THE FOG IN CHECK. THERE IS AN AREA
OF NEWLY DEVELOPED SHOWERS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN /AT 04Z/ THAT WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...THE HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW.

KMSP...

THERE ARE A FEW SMALL POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS LEFT OVER FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER...VAST MAJORITY OF AIRPORTS ARE VFR. ONE
NEW AREA OF CONCERN IS A DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN THAT HAS GROWN IN SIZE AND SHIFTED E-NE FROM
0350-0410Z. WE`RE NOT SURE HOW LONG THEY WILL HOLD TOGETHER...BUT
COULD EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE AIRPORT AROUND 06-07Z IF THEY DO. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THUNDER IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
TOMORROW...BUT LOOKS...MUCH...MUCH BETTER SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT /OR
EVEN SOUTH OF MN FOR THAT MATTER/. WINDS INCREASE NICELY OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA AND MVFR. WINDS SW 15KTS.
TUE...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS AND SCT SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW 15-20KTS.
WED...VFR/MVFR. -SHRA POSSIBLE EARLY. WINDS NW 10-20KTS

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 1151 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 925 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014

Line of storms has moved into eastern Missouri and has split into
two, with scattered storms now concentrated over northeast and
southeast Missouri. These storms will continue to move east this
evening and out of the area by just after midnight. Latest runs of
RAP still shows some low level moisture convergence lingering
over the southern half of Missouri overnight, so will keep chance
of showers/storms going over the southern half of the CWA the
rest of the night.

Britt

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014

Scattered showers and storms have developed this afternoon, mainly
across central and northeast MO into west central IL, due to diurnal
heating and destabilization.  Although most of this current activity
will dissipate by sunset, a more organized band of showers and
storms is expected to translate eastward through our forecast area
the evening into the overnight hours.  This convection is ahead of a
shortwave trough currently extending across eastern portions of
Nebraska and Kansas.  The HRRR model moves this band of convection
eastward into central MO just after 7 pm, then into the St Louis
metro area by late evening.  There may be some strong wind gusts
with these storms across northeast and central MO.  The convection
may gradually weaken late this evening and overnight as it shifts
eastward through the St Louis metro area.  Low temperatures will be
similar to last night, generally in the lower 70s.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014

Overall, it appears that the unsettled weather trend will continue
across the region heading into the start of the new week.  Trying to
pin down these periodic storm chances remain the primary forecast
concern.

For Sunday, forecast will reflect the thinking that tonight`s
convection should be exiting southeast sections of the CWA on Sunday
morning; however, if tonight`s complex is quicker than expected,
then these morning PoPs may be too high.  Once this activity exits,
then the question is whether there will be any redevelopment as AMS
destabilizes during the afternoon. Short range guidance based off of
12z UA data does suggest several very weak ripples in the flow that
will impact the area during the afternoon during max heating,
but they are also indicating warming mid level temps along and west
of the Mississippi River that may tend to cap any surface based
redevelopment.  GFS and GEM are a bit more bullish on the increase
of 7h temps over central MO, so have left forecast dry in this area
with slight chance/low chance PoPs elsewhere.

Intense convection is expected to blossom over the mid-Missouri
Valley Sunday afternoon in the very unstable airmass near the
surface boundary and ahead of the next shortwave, with this activity
quickly growing upscale into a convective complex that will then
work into the mid-Mississippi Valley during the overnight hours.
While there is still uncertainly on the exact location of storm
genesis, all storm propagation vectors from the various 12z
solutions have a fairly pronounced southerly component which
suggests complex try to build into our CWA with time.  Based on
this, I`ve tried to be fairly generous with the southward expansion
of PoPs and have taken mention of thunder to the I44 corridor in
MO/I70 corridor in IL by 12z Monday.

Remnants of Sunday nights convection will exit Monday morning, and
then there should be a bit of a lull before the third round of
convection sweeps across the region (primarily on Monday night) as
main cold front and associated shortwave move into the region and
interact with the very unstable airmass.  Depending upon the amount
of cloud cover, Monday should certainly be one of the warmest day so
far this summer with 850MB temps of 20-22C and gusty southwest
winds, and have maintained going highs in the low-mid 90s over all
but our far NW counties.

Medium range output continues to suggest below average temperatures,
and unusually low summertime humidities, for the first several days
of July.  Guidance remains in good agreement that axis of atypically
deep mid level trof will work into the Great Lakes region, bringing
relatively cool and dry air into the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Several shortwaves rotating through the trof will track across the
region at the same time, which will likely mean a continuation of
some shower and thunderstorm threat in the Tuesday-Wednesday time
frame, mainly over southern sections of the CWA where dynamics will
have the best chance to interact with the lower level
baroclinicity.

Right now it looks like more typical temps/humidity levels will be
returning by the Fourth of July weekend as upper trof works east and
ridging expands from the Rockies into the central CONUS.  Rain
chances look to be quite low in the Thursday-Saturday time
frame.

Truett

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014

TSRA will continue to move ewd thru the region overnight. With a
very unstable airmass in place, spotty storms will continue to
develop and may impact terminals overnight. However, due to the
unorganized nature of these storms and no system to focus on,
storms may impact terminals with minimal lead time. FG may
develop at UIN/COU later tonight. However, believe wind may
prevent development. Believe MVFR cigs shud develop shortly after
sunrise and persist thru the mid morning hours. These cigs shud
gradually break up by mid day. Winds will remain sly to swly and
back Sun evening to esely.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 402 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND LONGWAVE RIDGING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND THEN NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 75KTS
NEAR 34000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE
LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN COLORADO. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS...MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES REGION LATER TODAY. A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TODAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW OVER OUR AREA WHICH SHOULD INCREASE INTENSITY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THIS LOW MAY BEGIN TO MAKE A PUSH EAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW DOES THE SAME. AS A RESULT...THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR WEST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE SAME
POSITION TODAY INTO MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE
PERHAPS SNEAKING INTO OUR FAR WEST/NORTHWESTERN CWA TOWARDS
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE RESULTANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD
ACROSS OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS OUR FAR
WEST/NORTHWEST WHICH COULD TURN MORE NORTHERLY TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY
IF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE CAN MOVE AS FAR EAST AS CURRENTLY INDICATED
BY GUIDANCE.

FOR THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS ALONG THE AXIS OF A ~40KT
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
ALTHOUGH OFF BY A FEW HOURS...SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE HRRR
HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTION AND SUGGESTS IT WILL
PROPAGATE NORTHEAST SOME LATER THIS MORNING AND IMPACT SEVERAL OF
OUR KANSAS COUNTIES. THE HRRR...4KM WRF-NMM...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE 1KM WRF-NMM...ALSO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE REALIZED OVER WESTERN OR CENTRAL NEBRASKA
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS SHIFTS
NORTHEAST MORE INTO OUR AREA. QPF FIELDS FROM VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SEEM OVERDONE...BUT MANY OF THEM ALSO
INDICATE ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING...WITH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 0.25" ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA 12-18Z TODAY. FAR TOO MANY INDICATIONS OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO IGNORE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AS TO WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY BE REALIZED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
UNTIL 15Z. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS WILL
DECREASE IN INTENSITY POST SUNRISE AND AS A RESULT...CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH AS WELL. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA 15-21Z. THAT BEING SAID...THIS WILL ALL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THIS MORNING...WITH AN INCREASE IN
POPS LIKELY NEEDED IF/WHEN CONVECTION IS REALIZED OVER THE
AREA...AND A TEMPORAL INCREASE IN POPS PAST 15Z POSSIBLY NEEDED IF
CONVECTION MANAGES TO LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SUGGEST ANY MORNING
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA WILL LIKELY BE ROOTED TO AROUND 700MB AND
LIKELY ONLY HAVE ~500J/KG OF POTENTIAL ENERGY TO WORK WITH. GIVEN
THIS...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITH MORNING
CONVECTION.

ONCE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS DIMINISHES LASTER THIS
MORNING...THERE REALLY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SUBSTANTIAL
FORCING MECHANISMS ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE ENHANCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONVERGENCE
AND LIFT ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...BUT
AGAIN THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF OUR CWA UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE ON MONDAY. ALSO...THERE COULD BE A SUBTLE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION TRAVELING WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW WHICH
COULD PROVIDE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED OMEGA OVER THE AREA...BUT AGAIN
GUIDANCE DOES NOT PROVIDE ANY SUBSTANTIAL SIGNAL OF THIS
OCCURRING. FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS DO SUGGEST HOWEVER...IF FULL DIABATIC HEATING IS
ACHIEVED TODAY...THAT NEARLY ALL CIN COULD BE ERASED BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE
REACHED...PRIMARILY THROUGH LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. FARTHER
WEST...THESE SAME FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WARMER
TEMPERATURE READINGS NEAR 700MB AND RESULTANT HIGHER CIN VALUES
WILL MAKE CONVECTIVE INITIATION MORE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE. AS
ALREADY MENTIONED HOWEVER...FULL DIABATIC HEATING WOULD LIKELY
NEED TO BE ACHIEVED TO MEET CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE READINGS
FARTHER EAST...AND THERE IS A CHANCE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
FROM MORNING CONVECTION COULD PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO REACHING
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE READINGS. ITS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 4KM WRF-NMM SHOWS NOTHING OVER OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT BEING SAID...QPF FIELDS FROM
MULTIPLE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO SUGGEST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN CWA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS ACROSS THE
CWA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DID NOT GO ANY
HIGHER THAN A ~20% POP FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CIN VALUES...BUT FARTHER EAST WHERE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE
ACHIEVED...WENT AHEAD WITH 30-40% POPS ACROSS THE AREA. A COUPLE
IMPORTANT NOTES...THESE POPS WILL PROVE TO BE WELL OVERDONE IF
MORNING CONVECTION PROVIDES TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPTIATION. BUT...IF SO MUCH AS ONE STORM CAN FIRE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTANT OUTFLOW COULD RESULT IN MULTIPLE
STORMS INITIATING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING THUS RESULTING
IN A POP FORECAST WHICH IS UNDERDONE. UNFORTUNATELY IT IS UNLIKELY
WELL KNOW THE ANSWER UNTIL STORMS DO (OR DO NOT) INITIATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT CLOSE EVALUATION OF THE
SITUATION WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
HIGH VOLATILITY OF THE TROPOSPHERE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENHANCED
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL HELP PROMOTE 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES
OF 2000-4000J/KG ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ENERGY EXISTING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
40-50KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN EXISTENCE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DEEP
CONVECTION THAT IS REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 0-1KM SRH
VALUES DO NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE PER THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS...BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF IF/WHEN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
INTRODUCED ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THIS...WILL ALSO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POST-SUNSET TONIGHT
AS DIABATIC HEATING IS LOST. THAT BEING SAID...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
40-45KT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND NOSE INTO OUR
AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THEN POSSIBLE HEADING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH
20-40% POPS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.
FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SUGGEST ANY CONVECTION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE ROOTED TO AROUND
800MB AND HAVE ~2000J/KG OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.
GIVEN THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE A MENTION OF LARGE HAIL IN
THE HWO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

ALOFT: A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE OFFING NEXT WEEK
AND THIS MEANS A BREAK FROM A DRENCHING JUNE THAT HAS PUT A
SIGNIFICANT DENT IN THE DROUGHT OVER S-CNTRL NEB. JUNE HAS BEEN A
VERY WET MONTH DUE TO PERSISTENT BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN
USA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC INFO STATEMENT /PNS/ POSTED ON
OUR WEBSITE FOR WHERE GRI/HSI RANK FOR THE WETTEST JUNE`S ON
RECORD. GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MULTI-DAY 500 MB MEANS FOR DAYS 1-5
AND THEN 6-10 INDICATE A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER WRN N
AMERICA...FORCING LONGWAVE AMPLIFICATION. THE MEAN TROF WILL
PROGRESS E INTO THE CNTRL USA THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE ERN USA BY DAY 6. WHILE HIGH TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN HOT...A
COOLDOWN IS SLATED TUE-THU WITH WED BEING THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
FCST WITH HIGHS MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL /AT LEAST 10F/. BY NEXT
WEEKEND A SPELL OF SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL ARRIVE.

AS FOR THE SHORTWAVES...THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES IS ESSENTIALLY TRAPPED UNTIL AMPLIFICATION
BEGINS. THIS LOW WILL MAKE A LOOP TODAY-MON AND THEN OPEN UP AND
HEAD E TUE AS THE WRN RIDGE BUILDS. A TRAILING TROF WILL SLIP THRU
THE CNTRL PLAINS TUE. NW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN ITS WAKE WED-
THU WITH RISING HEIGHTS AS THE RIDGE MOVES E. A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
IS THEN FCST TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

SURFACE: THE STALLED FRONT THAT CURRENTLY BISECTS NEB FROM SW-NE
WILL MOVE LITTLE THRU DAYBREAK MON. IT WILL BECOME MOBILE THOUGH
MON AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND IT SHOULD BE JUST S AND E OF THE
FCST AREA BY SUNSET. A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU
TUE WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRES SURGES S INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
WED. AS IT HEADS INTO THE ERN USA THU-FRI...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH A NEW LEE-SIDE TROF. THIS SETUP WILL CONT INTO SAT.

A 40-30-30 BLEND OF THE 12Z/18Z/00Z CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR WIND GUSTS...DEWPOINTS AND QPF...AND HIGH
TEMPS TUE- THU. CONSENSUS OF 00Z MOS WAS USED FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS/DIR.

HAZARDS: TSTMS WILL BE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL NEB MON
MORNING. MUCAPE IS FCST AS HIGH AS 4000 J/KG WITH 40-50 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE STORMS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE ELEVATED. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR DO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE HAIL. THE REST OF THE WEEK...NOTHING UNTIL POSSIBLE TSTM
ACTIVITY RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE FRI NIGHT-SAT.


THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: SREF QPF PROBABILITIES OFFER HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT AN MCS
WILL BE ON-GOING TO START THE DAY OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN NEB.
THIS MCS WILL DEPART TO THE E. AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY THE COLD POOL
SHOULD SEE A PRETTY NICE DAY /S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES/. RESIDUAL
CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE MCS COULD SPOIL MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE
TRI- CITIES AN AND E. BREEZY N WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUE: SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT MON NIGHT. WHILE MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND S OF I-70...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE SOME ANVIL RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER COULD CREEP
INTO OUR N- CNTRL KS COUNTIES. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS COULD
SPREAD SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AS FAR N AS HWY 6 DURING THE DAY
TUE.

THE UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW DIURNAL SHWRS N
OF I-80. BREEZY OVER S-CNTRL NEB.

WED: SUNNY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL BUT WONDERFULLY REFRESHING. THIS
WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO TURN OFF THE A/C AND LET SOME FRESH AIR
INSIDE. 850 MB TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY FCST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL ON THE SREF/GFS ENSEMBLES. THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE
GEM OFFER HIGHS 65-75F. THE 00Z RUNS OF GEM AND GFS OFFER 70F FOR
A HIGH AT GRI. IF THAT OCCURS...WED WOULD BE ONE OF THE TOP 5
COOLEST JULY 2ND`S ON RECORD. THE LAST 3 CYCLES OF MEX MOS HAS
DROPPED HIGHS AT GRI FROM 83 TO 78 TO 73. COORDINATED WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS.

WE MAY NEED TO ADD A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF SHWR IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER S-CNTRL NEB. THE 12Z/00Z EC STILL HAVE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR HEALTHY CU AND POTENTIAL SHWR ACTIVITY.

THU: THE TEMP RECOVERY BEGINS...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL. STILL A VERY NICE DAY. RETURN FLOW BEGINS ADVECTING
THE POOL OF RICH MOISTURE BACK N IN ADVANCE OF THE LEE TROF.

FRI: BREEZY AND WARMER WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL /85-90F/.

FRI NIGHT-SAT: WE START FLIRTING WITH NIGHTTIME TSTM INITIATION
AND MCS ACTIVITY. SAT IS LOOKING HOT AWAY FROM ANY TSTM COOL POOLS
AND CLOUD DEBRIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT POSSIBLE
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS OF 05Z...BUT THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG
THE AXIS OF AN INCREASING JET AXIS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COULD PROMOTE STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD...SO WENT AHEAD AHEAD WITH A SCATTERED CLOUD FIELD NEAR
4000FT AGL STARTING AT 14Z. THAT BEING SAID...ANY DEVELOPING CLOUD
COVER WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE TO ENSURE
A CEILING DOES NOT TRY TO DEVELOP AND PERHAPS APPROACH MVFR
LEVELS. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET AXIS COULD ALSO PROMOTE A PERIOD OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATER THIS MORNING. AT THIS TIME THE
MAGNITUDE OF WIND SHEAR APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT JUST STRONG ENOUGH
TO JUSTIFY A MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAF 09-14Z.
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF GRI OBSERVING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
INTO THE DAY SUNDAY...SUSTAINED AT 09-12KTS. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WIND IS THEN EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 354 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING SWD INTO THE OZARKS. LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW EXTENDED WEST
TO THE PACIFIC COAST...WHILE EAST OF THE LOW...A RIDGE EXTENDED
UP THE EASTERN CONUS INTO SRN HUDSON BAY. WV IMAGERY AS OF 230 AM
CDT...HAS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SWRN MANITOBA WITH A NICE
SHORTWAVE OVER NRN SD...WITH CONVECTION NOTED OVER FAR NRN
NEBRASKA AND THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. ADDTL SUPPORT FOR
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LIES WITH A NICE JET
STREAK...VISIBLE ON CURRENT WV IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTH INTO
NERN NEBRASKA...THEN SW INTO SWRN NEBRASKA...OR ROUGHLY ALONG A
LINE FROM WATERTOWN SOUTH DAKOTA...TO ONEILL NEBRASKA...TO JUST
WEST OF MCCOOK NEBRASKA. VERY MOIST AIR WAS PRESENT EAST OF THIS
FEATURE...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. WEST OF THE FEATURE...DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 50S WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES AS
OF 3 AM CDT...RANGED FROM 61 AT THEDFORD AND VALENTINE...TO 66 AT
BROKEN BOW...OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS. FOR TODAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS FOR INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING. AS IT
STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE LATEST HRRR MODEL...DOES LINGER SOME
CONVECTION IN EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE
MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE
HRRR IS TOO SLOW WITH PCPN EXITING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL END PCPN IN THE EAST BY MID
MORNING. LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING AND THE
APPROACH OF A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE INVOF OF THE BEFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH. ATTM...AM EXPECTING THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE LITTLE
TODAY...SO LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM O`NEILL TO EAST
OF NORTH PLATTE...WILL BE UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS....ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE CAPES WILL REACH 3000 TO 4000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
ATTM...LARGE HAIL SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA PER DECENT CAPES IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FURTHER WEST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE CAPE DECREASES QUICKLY...SO
ONLY A GENERAL THREAT FOR STORMS EXISTS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 80S IN THE NORTH AND EAST...WHERE BL MOISTURE IS
GREATEST...TO AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE DRIER BL CONDS
EXIST. FOR TONIGHT...THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE LATEST NAM SOLN...REGENERATES
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT INVOF THE NOSE OF AN
H85 LLJET AND WILL INCLUDE THIS FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 183. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE
WEST TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN THE EAST. THESE WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN GUIDANCE...TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

COOLER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY. LINGERING
POST FRONTAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY OVER
EASTERN ZONES. BY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WELL TO THE EAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S...POSSIBLY MID 80S IN
FAR SW NEB. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL HELP TO RADIATE
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES AROUND AN ONTARIO LOW
FOR TUESDAY. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND EVEN SOME
SHOWERS. THE ADDED CLOUDS WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND FOR TEMPS THE LAST 3
RUNS...ALTHOUGH DID NOT DROP AS FAR AS LATEST GUIDANCE CAME IN
WITH. IF SKIES BECOME CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...EVEN WITH AN EARLY JULY HIGH SUN ANGLE...TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS AND AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S WITH DEW PTS AROUND 60.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST IS DRY FOR NOW
WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWER TO RETURN.

LL JET THURSDAY WILL HELP TO INCREASE MID TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER
INCLUSION ON THE NOSE OF THE JET. BETTER SHOWERS ARRIVES FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL CAUSE NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING SE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS
THE TREND FROM JUNE CONTINUES INTO JULY...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
RISE...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SEASONAL
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WITH KONL REPORTING VCTS. LOW LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING MAY SPARK SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA OVER
NIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
BECOMING GUSTY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH VFR CEILINGS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN
TAFS AT KVTN OR KLBF DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...POWER





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 1225 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING PRETTY UNLIKELY FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING HOURS. FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES
COULD CATCH A THUNDERSTORM IF THE LINE OVER BOONE COUNTY AT 7 PM
CAN BACK BUILD A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT AGAIN MOST
AREAS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE HAS SOME CUMULUS
FORMING MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF NEBRASKA WITH A FEW
FURTHER WEST AS WELL.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW THE WAVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WEAKENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND THE UPPER WAVE. THE HRRR KEEPS THE
PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE 4KM WRF HAS IT A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. BOTH OF THEM KEEP THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE EAST OR NORTHEAST. THE MUCAPE IS MAINLY AROUND 3000 J/KG
SO THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE STORMS SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION THERE IS A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST LATE TONIGHT.

EXPECT THERE TO BE A BREAK DURING THE MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE MORE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE MUCAPE IS OVER 4000 J/KG
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING...AND THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUASI-ZONAL...BUT BROADLY CYCLONIC FOR
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OVER
MANITOBA WHILE FLAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. WE MAY CATCH THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL JET TOWARD THE NORTHER CWA. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION BY SUNDAY EVENING. WITH A BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDE OF 35 TO 45 KTS AND CAPE LIKELY TO BE GREATER THAN 3000
J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE LIKELY AS
DISCREET SUPERCELLS LIKELY FORMING INTO A LINE THAT WILL HELP
PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH WITH ITS OUTFLOW. THIS LOOKS LIKE AN EARLY
SHOW WITH INCREASED DEWPOINTS ENCOURAGING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT...AGAIN WITH OUTFLOW
ENCOURAGING A PUSH TO THE SOUTH...PROBABLY ENDING THE CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER BY EARLY TO MID-EVENING. SREF SEVERE PARAMETERS
EXPLODE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WANE QUICKLY BY EVENING. TORNADO
PARAMETERS ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...SO AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NOT AS LIKELY INTO THE EVENING. SOME
ELEVATED STORMS COULD POP UP...ESPECIALLY NORTH LATER ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY GONE BY
THEN.

BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH WITH ENOUGH
SINKING AIR TO PREVENT ANY CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH IT
MAY BE A BIT BREEZY...CONSIDERING POTENTIAL HEIGHT
RISES.

WE TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE FORECAST
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST AND TROUGH
IN THE EAST. WE SEEM TO BE TRANSITIONING TO A WARMER AND DRY PERIOD
AS THE HIGH BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED...MOSTLY SUPPRESSING RAIN
DEVELOPMENT AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
 THAT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH COULD WEAKEN AND
PERHAPS ALLOW SOME WAVES TO AFFECT US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING THE NEXT SHOT AT SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE AID OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT POSSIBLE
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS OF 05Z...BUT THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG
THE AXIS OF AN INCREASING JET AXIS JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COULD PROMOTE STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD...SO WENT AHEAD AHEAD WITH A SCATTERED CLOUD FIELD NEAR
4000FT AGL STARTING AT 14Z. THAT BEING SAID...ANY DEVELOPING CLOUD
COVER WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE TO ENSURE
A CEILING DOES NOT TRY TO DEVELOP AND PERHAPS APPROACH MVFR
LEVELS. THE AFOREMENTIONED JET AXIS COULD ALSO PROMOTE A PERIOD OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATER THIS MORNING. AT THIS TIME THE
MAGNITUDE OF WIND SHEAR APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT JUST STRONG ENOUGH
TO JUSTIFY A MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAF 09-14Z.
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF GRI OBSERVING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
INTO THE DAY SUNDAY...SUSTAINED AT 09-12KTS. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WIND IS THEN EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...BRYANT



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 150 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO SINK
FURTHER SOUTH EARLY IN THE WEEK AND THEN MAY MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH
MID AND LATE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. A COLD
FRONT WILL STALL AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM SATURDAY...INLAND SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED A
LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN I ENVISIONED THREE HOURS AGO. SHOWERS
OFFSHORE AREN`T NUMEROUS BY ANY STRETCH...BUT THAT IS WHERE THE
REMAINING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS. THE LATEST SEVERAL HRRR
MODEL RUNS SHOW INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE JUST SOUTH OF CAPE
FEAR AND LATER AFFECTING GEORGETOWN AND COASTAL HORRY COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT. GIVEN CURRENT RADAR LOOPS AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
A DEEP LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS DOES SEEM REASONABLE. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

LOW PRESSURE APPROXIMATELY 250 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR IS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THIS EVENING. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN
THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ARE ADVECTING
HUMID AIR ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC. A SPLASH OF SUNSHINE EARLIER
TODAY WAS ALL THIS AIRMASS NEEDED TO EXPLODE INTO WAVES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...MANY OF WHICH CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GRAND
STRAND AND PEE DEE REGION. POPS AS HIGH AS 80 PERCENT ARE FORECAST
IN THE PEE DEE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE
EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A SLUG OF SURPRISINGLY DRY AIR ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. EARLIER MODELS KEPT
THIS DRY AIR MAINLY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA HOWEVER THE 19Z RUN
OF THE HRRR WAS MORE INSISTENT THAT DEWPOINTS WOULD FALL INTO THE
LOWER 60S LATE TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
RISING PRESSURES OVER LAND AT NIGHT NORMALLY CREATE A BACKED SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL WIND COMPARED TO WHAT THE BROAD SYNOPTIC GRADIENT
MIGHT SUGGEST...SO I HAVE TRIMMED A FEW DEGREES OFF FORECAST
DEWPOINTS AFTER 07-08Z...MAINLY AFFECTING THE LBT-ILM CORRIDOR. THIS
WILL HAVE THE ADDED IMPACT OF CREATING LESSER SHOWER AND FOG/LOW
STRATUS CHANCES LATE TONIGHT...AND I HAVE TRIMMED BACK FORECAST POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM 69-74...COOLEST IN BURGAW AND NORTH
OF LUMBERTON...WARMEST AT THE GEORGETOWN COUNTY BEACHES AND BALD
HEAD ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH
WHILE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FL/GA COAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE
DEFINED SUN. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT BUILDING 5H RIDGE WILL WORK TO DRY THE MID LEVELS. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP BY AROUND HALF AN INCH SUN
THEY WILL STILL BE VERY CLOSE TO CLIMO. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BUT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND LINGERING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES WILL STILL BE ABLE
TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
UNDER THE 5H RIDGE STORM MOTIONS WILL AGAIN BE UNDER 10 KT AND
STORMS WILL HAVE ABILITY TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS.
HOWEVER THE OVERALL FLOODING THREAT IS DECREASED GIVEN THE LOWER
EXPECTED COVERAGE. HIGHS CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW CLIMO WITH CLOUD
COVER AND EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP LOWS ABOVE CLIMO...LOW TO MID
70S.

MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN MON FURTHER DRYING MID
LEVELS WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE. CONFIDENCE MON IS ON THE LOW
SIDE...IN PART DUE TO EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE LURKING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND RESULTING
MID LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE AND THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
FEATURES WOULD POINT TO PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING LATER IN THE
PERIOD. WILL CARRY LOW CHC POP MON WITH HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE
COAST. HIGHS WILL CREEP UP A DEGREE OR TWO...NEARING CLIMO...AS
THE 5H RIDGE BUILDS. LOWS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS WILL REMAIN ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
TROPICAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. ON TUESDAY
THE LOW SHOULD BE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST BUT MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE
FATE OF THE LOW THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH MID WEEK
PUSHING A TROUGH/FRONT EAST THROUGH THURS BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY. THE TROPICAL LOW OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD GET
PICKED UP BY THIS TROUGH PUSHING EAST. GFS JUST SHOWS SOME
CONVECTION MOVING UP THROUGH THE OFF SHORE WATERS FRI INTO SATURDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW TRACKING UP THROUGH THE
OFF SHORE WATERS OFF OF CAPE FEAR FRI REACHING THE WATERS OFF OF
CAPE HATTERAS BY SAT MORNING.

INITIALLY SHOULD SEE WEAK RETURN FLOW AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH
PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER INLAND AREAS TUES INTO WED. CONVECTION SHOULD
BE MORE ISOLATED THROUGH MID WEEK AS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE UP THE
EAST COAST. BY LATE WED INTO THURS MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CAROLINAS....MAINLY WELL INLAND. BY LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY...THE
ENTIRE TROUGH PUSHES EAST AS THE REMNANT TROPICAL LOW MOVES UP THE
COAST. SHOULD SEE ADDED SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE
TROUGH OVER COASTAL CAROLINAS BEFORE SHIFTING OFF SHORE. FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST KEEPING GREATEST CONVECTION
FROM THE LOW WELL OFF SHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
CAROLINAS BEHIND FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE WED WELL
INLAND AND LATE THURS INTO FRI OVER MOST OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN A MOISTURE RICH
AIR MASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN 90 TO
95 MOST DAYS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WILL INCLUDE MVFR STRATOCUMULUS TO ALL OF THE TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KILM BETWEEN 08-12Z. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW REMAINS FROM THE N
AND NE...DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD
WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO OR THROUGH THE 60S THROUGH
SUNRISE. LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF GEORGIA SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO SPREAD SOME SUBSIDENCE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THIS MAY
INHIBIT CONVECTION...BUT PROBABLY WILL STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY AROUND MAX HEATING...BEST CHANCE FLO.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD POSSIBLY CREATING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...WINDS SURGED TO A SOLID 20 KNOTS NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS EVENING BUT APPEAR TO HAVE
STABILIZED IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ON THE LAST SET OF OBSERVATIONS.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE TIGHTEST PORTION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS RESPONSIBLE. SURFACE PRESSURES ACROSS NE
NORTH CAROLINA ARE 1024 MB VERSUS 1017-ISH MB WITHIN THE OFFSHORE
LOW. SEAS AT THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY HAVE INCREASED TO
5 FEET...AND I CONTEMPLATED ISSUING AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR
THE SURF CITY-CAPE FEAR ZONE IF I HAD MORE CONFIDENCE THESE LARGER
SEAS WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LATEST FEW HRRR MODEL
RUNS CONFIRM RECENT RADAR TRENDS OF INCREASING SHOWERS JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR...AND I HAVE INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES FROM
CAPE FEAR SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH MYRTLE BEACH OVERNIGHT ACCORDINGLY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...

A HEALTHY EAST-NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE WATERS HAS PUSHED SEA
HEIGHTS TO AS HIGH AS 4 FEET AT THE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH NEARSHORE
BUOY. THESE 4-FOOTERS ARE LIKELY CONFINED TO THE WATERS NEAR AND
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WHERE THE STRONGEST GRADIENT AND LONGEST
EFFECTIVE FETCH ARE CO-LOCATED. THIS IS THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS EARLY-EVENING UPDATE. OTHERWISE OUR WEATHER
CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY LOW PRESSURE SWIRLING ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. THIS LOW IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY NON-FRONTAL IN
NATURE AND WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
WILL WORK WITH THE LOW TO CONTINUE EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING 14-17 KNOTS THIS EVENING...THEN CLOSER
TO 12 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW
OVER THE WATERS SUN. WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY MON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SETTLES SOUTH.
GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING SPEEDS
10 TO 15 KT WITH THE CAVEAT THAT THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
DOES NOT UNDERGO ANY MEANINGFUL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH ISOLATED 4 FT POSSIBLE ALONG
OUTER EDGES OF NC ZONES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH LAND/SEA BREEZE
DOMINATING NEAR SHORE WINDS. TROPICAL LOW SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST
OF FLORIDA ON TUES AND IT SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH
WED INTO THURS AS TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGS DOWN AND PUSHES
EASTWARD. MODELS DIFFER AS TO INTENSITY OF THIS LOW WITH THE GFS
BEING THE WEAKEST WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS A 1013 MB LOW OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON FRI. EITHER WAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE S-SW WED NIGHT INTO THURS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS. EXPECT WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS TUES INTO WED WITH
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WED NIGHT INTO THURS
WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT BY THURS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...RJD/DL





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

 1226 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

LATEST REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS PERSISTENT SHOWERS ROTATING
COUNTERCLOCKWISE ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...AROUND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR BRANDON
MANITOBA. FARTHER SOUTH...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE BUT EXPECT
THESE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
SHOWERS REMAINING NEAR/ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OVERNIGHT...WITH
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUING TO DEEPEN. THAT SAID...A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ENSUES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL BE SORTING OUT A
POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY IN THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE. FOR THIS
UPDATE...FOLLOWED THE HRRR PRECIPITATION FIELD AS IT SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING THE CURRENT AREA WELL. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

MAIN UPDATE ISSUES ARE HYDRO THIS EVENING. ALL FLOOD ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER...AN AREAL FLOOD
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN.
OVERLAND FLOODING CONTINUES IN THE WARNED AREA...MAINLY FROM
CROSBY SOUTHEAST THROUGH TIOGA TO PARSHALL AND MAKOTI...EAST TO
HIGHWAY 83 AND THEN NORTH THROUGH LOGAN...MINOT...GLENBURN AND
WESTHOPE. IN ADDITION A WARM CONVEYOR BELT PROCESS IS ENHANCING
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH COULD ADD AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WE AR STILL GATHERING RAINFALL REPORTS AND
CONFERRING WITH APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS AND THE RIVER FORECAST
CENTER REGARDING POSSIBLE FLOODING DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING.
SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE LIKELY...SO STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION REGARDING THIS SITUATION.

POPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR ANALYSIS AND
SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODEL FORECAST. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL ALSO
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN
THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z AS A RESULT.

SURFACE LOW IS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN UP AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS LED TO INCREASING
WIND SPEED AND PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ROTATING
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO
PROG THE LOW TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
EVENING. THINK THE FLOODING THREAT SHOULD END ACROSS THE REGION BY
LATE EVENING.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WINDS ON SUNDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT STALLS OVER LAKE MANITOBA. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY...LEADING TO
WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AREAWIDE BY MID-MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDIEST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON WHERE AND FOR HOW LONG TO PUT OUT A WIND
ADVISORY (IF WARRANTED) FOR SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
MONDAY...GENERATING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWERS. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER LOW IN EXITING THE REGION...A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BENEATH
THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...WILL
BRING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY.

A RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND
BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

THE RIDGE FLATTENS BY FRIDAY AND CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
WITH FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED NEXT 24HR...WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TERMINALS SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT FROM ROUGHLY 14Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 01Z MONDAY. LOW VFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO
KISN AND KMOT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY

NWS RAPID CITY SD

 1115 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 842 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2014

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. THAT LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW
TWO SMALL-SCALE DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...AND THE 00Z
KUNR SOUNDING HAD 659 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUS...PRECIP WAS LINGERING
A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE PRECIP TREND
HAS BEEN DOWNWARD...CONSISTENT WITH HRRR AND RAP GUIDANCE. THUS
EXPECT PRECIP TO BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING CUT OFF LOW ACROSS SCNTRL ND
SLIDING NORTHWARD. A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES STRETCHING FROM
YELLOWSTONE TO THE BLKHLS ARE SLIDING EASTWARD BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CNTRL ND WITH W/NW FLOW
ACROSS THE CWA. KUDX RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CROSSING
MUCH OF WRN SD.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN EARLY THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL
COOLING SETS IN. THINK THE PRECIP WILL BE DONE BY 03Z. WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL KEEP THIS LOW TOP CONVECTION FROM
BECOMING SEVERE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT WITH TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60.

UPPER LOW WILL GET WRAPPED UP AND STALLED OUT NORTH OF ND SUNDAY.
SLIGHTLY WARMER MID-LEVELS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
STABLE ENOUGH TO HINDER STORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS SUNDAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S. WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW STACKING BELOW THE UPPER
LOW...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR BREEZY W/NW
WINDS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST SD. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2014

A TIGHTLY WOUND LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL DOMINATE THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN AT BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROTATING
AROUND THIS LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL GENERATE SOME BREEZY WINDS BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE.  THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
EXIT THE PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A BROAD RIDGE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.  SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S IN MANY PLACES IN THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AND THEN INTO THE 90S FRIDAY. A WEAK BREAK
THROUGH SHORT WAVE WILL GENERATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP THE MOISTURE TRAJECTORY MOSTLY DRY FOR
THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT SAT JUN 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST SD BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BUNKERS
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...HELGESON





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 340 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DESPITE HAVING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST
EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN A REGION WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS REBOUNDING FROM THE SOUTH. 29.00Z GUIDANCE
STILL IS CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW RIDING UP
TOWARD A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY/DRY LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO NOSE UP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THAT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR TAKE
THE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BUT WEAKEN
IT AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST. WHILE 0-3KM MUCAPE APPEARS TO BE ON
THE WEAK SIDE AT 500-1000 J/KG...0-6KM SHEAR IS DECENT AT 30-40KTS
AND INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING...SO SOME ISOLATED HAILERS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY IS SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON
HOW LONG THE ENVIRONMENT CAN REMAIN CLEAR OF THE MORNING
CONVECTION GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS SINCE THAT WILL LIMIT
THE INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE 29.00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TOWARD DAYBREAK
AND TAKING IT EAST THROUGH IOWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE ACTUALLY DEVELOPED AN MCV OFF OF
THIS CONVECTION AND TAKEN IT UP THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHOULD THIS FEATURE FORM...IT WOULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD LIKELY LESSEN
THE SEVERE THREAT SINCE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BUILD MUCH
AND THE MID LEVEL JET STREAK MAY NOT BE IN YET. OTHERWISE...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL DRY LINE/BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE SURFACE
WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS IOWA TODAY. MOST
29.00Z GUIDANCE KEEP THIS FEATURE TO THE SOUTH BECAUSE OF THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION....SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
FEATURE AND SEE IF IT DOES MAKE IT FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

IF THIS MCV DOES NOT COME THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME HIGHLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
OF 2000-3000 J/KG INTO AT LEAST NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN...POSSIBLY EVEN FURTHER NORTH. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS A 500MB JET STREAK
ENTERS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS SHEAR
APPEARS TO BE SPEED SHEAR WITH SURFACE WINDS LIKELY BEING OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST IN THE MOIST SECTOR AND STAYING SOUTHWEST TO WEST
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. IF THE ENVIRONMENT IS ABLE TO
DESTABILIZE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL
OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST IOWA...POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...IN THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH INITIAL STORM MODE POSSIBLY BEING
SUPERCELLULAR BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE LINEAR MODE AS MOST
OF THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE IN THE LOWEST 3KM. THE NSSL WRF-ARW/NMM
SOLUTIONS ARE SOME OF THE MORE OMINOUS ONES WITH PUSHING THE EARLY
DAY CONVECTION OUT BY AFTERNOON AND THEN BACKING SURFACE WINDS
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WARM FRONT MAKING IT INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA. IF THESE SURFACE WINDS CAN BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT ALL...IT WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR TORNADOES AS THE 0-1KM SHEAR/HELICITY INCREASES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO...WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS ONE WOULD LIKE
AT THIS POINT...AM STILL THINKING THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY FROM 1PM TO 10PM WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE HAZARDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH. TIMING
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
LOCALLY AS CONVECTION MAY QUICKLY DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS WITH THERE NOT BEING MUCH OF A CAP IN PLACE. WITH THE
DEEP...WIDESPREAD FORCING COMING IN TO GO ALONG WITH A FAT CAPE
PROFILE AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING EVERYWHERE...WHICH MAY MAKE IT HARD FOR
STORMS TO START OUT AS SUPERCELLULAR AND INSTEAD START OUT
MULTICELLULAR/SQUALL LINE-ISH INSTEAD. SOME OF THE DETAILS WILL
STILL HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT AFTER THE CONVECTION PASSES
TODAY...BUT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY IN THE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF HIGH END
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

BEYOND THIS...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE OVER AS THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPS
DOWN FROM CANADA. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AS THIS
TROUGH DROPS DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE TAF
SITES...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS LOOK TO IMPACT LSE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS PRECIPITATION...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW STRATUS DEVELOPING...WHICH IS ALREADY OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL
IOWA. DOWN THERE IFR CEILINGS EXIST. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEPICT MVFR CEILINGS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF IFR AT RST BETWEEN
11-13Z WHEN MODELS AGREE FOR THE LOWEST CEILINGS. BELIEVE THIS
TIME PERIOD IS ALSO WHEN THE ALTOSTRATUS AND CIRROSTRATUS CLEAR.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD ALSO FALL AT LEAST TO MVFR. DAYTIME MIXING
WILL HELP TO BRING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BACK UP TO VFR BY
16Z. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF A TROUGH
CROSSING MN. THIS MOISTURE RETURN COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
EVEN THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 16-18Z AT THE TAF SITES. MORE LIKELY IS
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD CROSS SOMETIME
BETWEEN 18-24Z...WHICH IS HANDLED BY A VCTS. LATER FORECASTS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PIN DOWN MORE SPECIFIC TIMING...INCLUDING TSRA
MENTION...LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS.
ANTICIPATING WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE AROUND 00Z SKIES WILL AT
LEAST SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

MOST RAINFALL REPORTS FROM ACROSS THE REGION WERE IN THE HALF INCH
TO AN INCH RANGE...THOUGH THERE WERE SOME LOCAL 2-3" REPORTS THAT
CAME IN FROM THE STORMS LAST NIGHT. WHILE MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD STAY PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH
THAT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED ISSUES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. RIVERS WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI WHERE
MANY SITES ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 1152 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRACKING INTO THE AREA WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DESPITE A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING
THROUGH WESTERN IOWA TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF DYNAMICAL
FORCING...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
DOWNSTREAM...THE STORMS HAVE FALLEN APART IN ORGANIZATION. PART OF
THE PROBLEM AS REFERENCED IN SPCS MESO DISCUSSION 1192 IS THE
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE INTO THE MID-
LEVELS...WHICH GIVEN THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION TO THE LINE IS
NOT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED DAMAGING WINDS. MOST OF THE WIND GUSTS
THUS FAR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE...SO THINKING
THE DAMAGING WIND CONCERN IS DIMINISHING.

FARTHER OUT IN TIME...SOME UNCERTAINTY HAS DEVELOPED FOR SUNDAY.
THE 28.12Z ECMWF...REGIONAL CANADIAN...HI RES ARW/NMM MODELS AND
THE 28.18Z NAM/GFS ARE CONVECTING STORMS SOONER AND FARTHER EAST THAN
WHAT IS IN THE FORECAST. WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS EARLY AS 18Z IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. THIS WILL BE
LOOKED AT MORE THROUGH THE EVENING TO SEE IF SOME FORECAST
ADJUSTMENTS ARE REQUIRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND.

WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ND THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. FEED OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WAS
PRODUCING SEVERAL LINES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MN/IA...AND
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OTHERWISE...A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND CONVECTION THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. CONSENSUS OF MESO-WRF MODELS CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH/FRONT AS IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NAM 0-1KM
MLCAPE IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20KT.
MEANWHILE... PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES.
SO...INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR PERHAPS SOME ORGANIZED LINE/S OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. RAP ALSO SHOWING SOMEWHAT ENHANCED NON-
TORNADIC SUPERCELL SIGNATURE FOR PERHAPS A BRIEF SPIN-UP OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE/S OF
CONVECTION. APPEARS RIGHT NOW THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE IN THE
4-10 PM TIME FRAME. APPEARS THE TROUGH AND BULK OF THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...AFTER A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE ACTION...PLAN ON
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA MAINLY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN
WI THROUGH CENTRAL IA. THERE WILL BE AMPLE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE
30-35KT RANGE AND MUCAPE IN THE 1800-2500J/KG GOING INTO SUNDAY
EVENING FOR A ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MID-LEVELS WILL ALSO BE IN
COOLING MODE FOR STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY MONDAY.

MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN GENERATING A MID-
LEVEL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND RACING ITO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM SOUTHERN WI INTO CENTRAL IA.
MODEL CONSENSUS 0-3KM MUCAPE RUNNING SOMEWHERE AROUND 1200J/KG
ALONG/NORTH OF I-94...TO NEAR 3000J/KG ACROSS NORTHEAST IA. THE NAM
IS THE MOST BALLISTIC WITH CAPE NEARING 5500J/KG BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST IA. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL INDICATING AMPLE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN
THE 35-55KT RANGE. SO...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SHOT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. TORNADO/LARGE HAIL THREAT ALSO
LOOKS HIGHER FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WI INTO NORTHEAST IA WHERE
NAM INDICATES STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES IN THE 500-700 RANGE.
LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA DURING
THE MID-LATE EVENING HOURS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS/ECMWF INDICATING COOLER/CYCLONIC
FLOW DOMINATING THE REGION. TUESDAY LOOKS PRIME FOR SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH COLDEST
POOL OF AIR ALOFT.

FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY...SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS ARISE
AS THE ECMWF BUILDS A FLAT RIDGE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS COOLER/BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE  A
COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE TAF
SITES...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS LOOK TO IMPACT LSE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS PRECIPITATION...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW STRATUS DEVELOPING...WHICH IS ALREADY OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL
IOWA. DOWN THERE IFR CEILINGS EXIST. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEPICT MVFR CEILINGS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF IFR AT RST BETWEEN
11-13Z WHEN MODELS AGREE FOR THE LOWEST CEILINGS. BELIEVE THIS
TIME PERIOD IS ALSO WHEN THE ALTOSTRATUS AND CIRROSTRATUS CLEAR.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD ALSO FALL AT LEAST TO MVFR. DAYTIME MIXING
WILL HELP TO BRING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BACK UP TO VFR BY
16Z. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF A TROUGH
CROSSING MN. THIS MOISTURE RETURN COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
EVEN THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 16-18Z AT THE TAF SITES. MORE LIKELY IS
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD CROSS SOMETIME
BETWEEN 18-24Z...WHICH IS HANDLED BY A VCTS. LATER FORECASTS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PIN DOWN MORE SPECIFIC TIMING...INCLUDING TSRA
MENTION...LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AND EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS.
ANTICIPATING WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE AROUND 00Z SKIES WILL AT
LEAST SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

PLAN ON PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH. DUE TO MOSTLY TRANSITORY NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION...FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY END UP BEING MORE OF A
LOCALIZED THREAT. HOWEVER...IF TRAINING OCCURS...HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BE PROBLEMATIC. THIS COULD BE THE ISSUE MORE ON MONDAY. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH

PLAN ON THE MAIN STEM OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH NEXT
WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...DAS





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

 905 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FCST AS LATEST DATA SUGGESTS A FEW
HIGHER BASED TSTMS MAY DVLP LATE THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY OVER ERN
ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE.
OTHERWISE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE SHOWS A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
TODAY OVER COLORADO WITH THE STRONGER JET STILL ACROSS NORTHERN
WYOMING. PLATTEVILLE PROFILER STILL SHOWING 40-50KT WIND SPEEDS
JUST ABOVE 500MB. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PUT NORTHERN
COLORADO IN WEAK SUBSIDENCE THROUGH TODAY.

A FEW SUBTLE FEATURES THAT MAY EFFECT WEATHER ON THE PLAINS. LATE
NIGHT CONVECTION OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS HAS
RESULTED IN SOME STRATUS OVER ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES SO HAVE
ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASE IN MOISTURE VALUES
OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S.
MOST OF THIS MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOISTURE
IS A BIT DEEPER FURTHER EAST.  COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM OVER
LINCOLN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES AFTER 3 PM AND THROUGH EVENING. LATEST
SIMULATED WRF/NAM SIMULATED IMAGERY SHOWING BOUNDARY FROM LAST
NIGHTS STORM WITH ADDITIONAL INTERACTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER
EAST CENTRAL CO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDINGS
SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE MAINLY GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE FRONT RANGE AND MOUNTAINS...DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE WITH SOME CLOUD BUILD UPS BUT DOUBT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S. GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT STILL
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OVER HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES THIS AM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014

ON MONDAY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES DEEPENS AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL VORTEX TRACKS EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE
FRONT RANGE ALLOWS FOR A WEAK...MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT TO RACE
SOUTH THRU ERN COLORADO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS ON MONDAY.
THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS QUITE DRY INITIALLY...BUT AS
THE N-NWLY BNDRY LAYER FLOW TURNS MORE NELY-UPSLOPE...SFC-600 MB
MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY INCREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...CAPES AND STABILITY ONLY MARGINAL FOR
T-STORM PRODUCTION ON THE PLAINS. WHEREAS OROGRAPHICS/UPSLOPE FLOW
AND STG DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD BE ADEQUATE TO SPAWN A FEW T-STORMS
OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND WRN SECTIONS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. ANY PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY...WITH
GUSTY DOWNDRAFT/MICROBURST WINDS PRIMARY PRODUCT OF THIS LOW TOP
CONVECTION. MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW AN EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT
BACKING INTO NERN COLORADO DURING THE EVENING HRS IN ADVANCE OF A
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE RACING SEWRD FROM OVER NWRN WYOMING. MODELS
INDICATE WEAK TO MODERATE QG ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT
SWINGS ACROSS NERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
PUSH UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE SOMETIME BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z/TUE
BASED ON SFC/850/BNDRY LAYER WIND AND TEMP FIELDS. AND WITH THE
FORCING ALOFT AND MOIST UPSLOPE IN PLACE...COULD SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS AND/OR T-STORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY
OVER AND NEAR THE SRN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE.

POST-FRONTAL COOLING WILL BE MOST NOTICABLE ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES
OVERHEAD. ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO FORM ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE
LARGELY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
DENVER AREA...AND NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON THE
PLAINS TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEG F BELOW
AVERAGE. HIGHS NOW AVERAGE IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. SHOULD SEE LITTLE
FLUCTUATION IN HIGH COUNTRY TEMPERATURES PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE
CONT DVD. TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS IN AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS COULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUD WITH PERHAPS SOME
FOG ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
REALLY DO NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN FROM THIS LOW CLOUD
COVER.

ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY REBOUND AS EASTERLY/UPSLOPE
FLOW SHIFTS TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE/HEAT DOME BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN MAKES SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS TOWARDS COLORADO. THIS RESULTS IN DRYING AND WARMING ALOFT
DUE LARGELY TO SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...STEEP 0-3KM LAPSE RATES...
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SELY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE ABLE
TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED T-STORM COVERAGE ACRS SWRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE
WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE
ROCKY MTN REGION BRINGING WITH IT LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT. AT LOWER
LEVELS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS STRANDS OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES AND UP INTO
COLORADO. THE BULK OF THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR APPEARS TO
ORIGINATE FROM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING
SLOWLY UP THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE APPEARS
TO STAY OVER AND WEST OF THE MTNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER BY
SATURDAY MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING TOP OF THE RIDGE
WHICH MAY SHIFT THE AXIS OF THIS MOISTURE PLUME EAST OF THE
MTNS...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF T-STORMS ON THE PLAINS. FOR
NOW...WILL HANG ONTO LOW POPS ALL THREE DAYS AND WAIT TO SEE HOW
THIS MONSOON LOOKING PATTERN SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 859 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014

WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT SELY THIS MORNING. LATEST RAP SHOWS A WEAK
WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW AROUND 21Z WHICH LASTS THRU 01Z. IN THE
EVENING WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO DRAINAGE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...RPK




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 918 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
352 AM CDT

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
MAINLY LATER TONIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXIST. VERY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE
GRADUAL COOLING/DRYING TREND BEGINS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY
AND MILD WEATHER LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE 4TH OF JULY FRIDAY...THEN
WARMING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AGAIN LATER
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE THREAT
OF RAIN QUICKLY SHIFTING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO INDIANA SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. WEAK HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP KEEP THINGS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME CAP IS LIKELY TO BE
PRESENT AS INDICATED IN SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...WRF AND RAP SUGGEST
WEAKER CAPPING. SUSPECT A COUPLE OF MCVS ARE PRESENT UPSTREAM WITH
SMALL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS NOTED OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST IA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD AID IN LOCALLY
WEAKENING CAP AND PRODUCING SOME FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM ABOUT 3 PM INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS ANTICIPATED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING STORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
INTO A SEVERE MCS WHICH WOULD THEN SPREAD EAST INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL TIMING AFTER DARK
WOULD SUGGEST WEAKENING OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE FARTHER EAST
TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPC HAS EXPANDED THEIR DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS MOST OF THE IL PORTION OF OUR CWA...WITH ENHANCED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT EXTENDING INTO WESTERN IL. DECAYING REMAINS OF OVERNIGHT
MCS SHOULD WORK TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THE COMBINATION OF A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
APPEARS FAIRLY HIGH FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY
2 OUTLOOK PLACES ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED
PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW
EVOLUTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ESPECIALLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST. SEVERE
THREAT...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVERALL...WILL THEN DECREASE
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.

A SLOW COOLING/DRYING TREND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TUESDAY-THURSDAY...
AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRAVERSE THE SLOW MOVING LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY
QPF DURING THE TRANSITION...MAINLY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY SPREADS INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY IN TIME FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY...
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SUNDAY LOOKS
WARMER AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS INTO THE MIDWEST...THOUGH WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOO.

TEMPERATURE WISE...BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH 850 MB TEMPS +20 TO +22 C. HAVE AGAIN GONE
ABOVE MOS NUMBERS FOR MAXES...BASED ON 925/950 MB THERMAL FIELDS AND
LOCAL CLIMO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS/CLOUD COVER REMAIN THE WILD
CARDS WITH HIGH TEMPS...THOUGH LOW 90S SHOULD BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHERE SUFFICIENT SUN/HEATING OCCUR.
TEMPS THEN FALL OFF INTO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE LATER IN THE WEEK...
WITH ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING LAKE SHORE AREAS IN THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* AREAL COVERAGE OF MVFR CIGS SLOWLY SHRINKING THIS MORNING.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BY LATE MORNING.
* LOW CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS EVENING... BETTER CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

ED F

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

LOWER CIGS HAVE BEEN VARYING BETWEEN SCT AND BKN AT MANY LOCATIONS
BUT FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST CIGS ARE MORE BKN
TO OVC AND OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH BKN PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING. IFR CIGS APPEAR TO BE CONFINED FROM DPA/ARR AND POINTS TO
THE WEST AND THESE SHOULD LIFT TO LOW MVFR IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
MVFR CIGS WILL THEN LIFT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING AND MAY SCATTER
OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

AREA OF TSRA OVER NORTHWEST IOWA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO A BIT MORE STABLE AIR BUT
TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL TSRA ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI AND MAY MOVE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING OR MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT...WHICH
IS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY BUT THE BEST CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL INCREASE SOME THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPPER TEEN KNOT RANGE THROUGH SUNSET. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. CMS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* HIGH FOR MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
* HIGH FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* LOW FOR SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

ED F

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* MONDAY NIGHT...EVENING TSRA WITH STRONG WINDS/HEAVY RAIN.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

307 AM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO MONDAY REACHING JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN WINDS
WILL SHIFT WESTERLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE TODAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO TONIGHT WHILE THE DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN MORE
PATCHY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. CMS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.

&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 642 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
352 AM CDT

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
MAINLY LATER TONIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXIST. VERY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE
GRADUAL COOLING/DRYING TREND BEGINS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY
AND MILD WEATHER LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE 4TH OF JULY FRIDAY...THEN
WARMING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AGAIN LATER
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE THREAT
OF RAIN QUICKLY SHIFTING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO INDIANA SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. WEAK HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP KEEP THINGS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME CAP IS LIKELY TO BE
PRESENT AS INDICATED IN SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...WRF AND RAP SUGGEST
WEAKER CAPPING. SUSPECT A COUPLE OF MCVS ARE PRESENT UPSTREAM WITH
SMALL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS NOTED OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST IA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD AID IN LOCALLY
WEAKENING CAP AND PRODUCING SOME FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM ABOUT 3 PM INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS ANTICIPATED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING STORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
INTO A SEVERE MCS WHICH WOULD THEN SPREAD EAST INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL TIMING AFTER DARK
WOULD SUGGEST WEAKENING OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE FARTHER EAST
TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPC HAS EXPANDED THEIR DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS MOST OF THE IL PORTION OF OUR CWA...WITH ENHANCED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT EXTENDING INTO WESTERN IL. DECAYING REMAINS OF OVERNIGHT
MCS SHOULD WORK TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THE COMBINATION OF A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
APPEARS FAIRLY HIGH FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY
2 OUTLOOK PLACES ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED
PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW
EVOLUTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ESPECIALLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST. SEVERE
THREAT...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVERALL...WILL THEN DECREASE
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.

A SLOW COOLING/DRYING TREND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TUESDAY-THURSDAY...
AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRAVERSE THE SLOW MOVING LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY
QPF DURING THE TRANSITION...MAINLY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY SPREADS INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY IN TIME FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY...
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SUNDAY LOOKS
WARMER AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS INTO THE MIDWEST...THOUGH WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOO.

TEMPERATURE WISE...BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH 850 MB TEMPS +20 TO +22 C. HAVE AGAIN GONE
ABOVE MOS NUMBERS FOR MAXES...BASED ON 925/950 MB THERMAL FIELDS AND
LOCAL CLIMO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS/CLOUD COVER REMAIN THE WILD
CARDS WITH HIGH TEMPS...THOUGH LOW 90S SHOULD BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHERE SUFFICIENT SUN/HEATING OCCUR.
TEMPS THEN FALL OFF INTO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE LATER IN THE WEEK...
WITH ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING LAKE SHORE AREAS IN THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...

* MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
* CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CMS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

LOWER CIGS HAVE BEEN VARYING BETWEEN SCT AND BKN AT MANY LOCATIONS
BUT FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST CIGS ARE MORE BKN
TO OVC AND OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH BKN PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING. IFR CIGS APPEAR TO BE CONFINED FROM DPA/ARR AND POINTS TO
THE WEST AND THESE SHOULD LIFT TO LOW MVFR IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
MVFR CIGS WILL THEN LIFT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING AND MAY SCATTER
OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

AREA OF TSRA OVER NORTHWEST IOWA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO A BIT MORE STABLE AIR BUT
TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL TSRA ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI AND MAY MOVE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING OR MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT...WHICH
IS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY BUT THE BEST CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL INCREASE SOME THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPPER TEEN KNOT RANGE THROUGH SUNSET. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. CMS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...

* HIGH FOR MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
* HIGH FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* LOW FOR SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CMS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* MONDAY NIGHT...EVENING TSRA WITH STRONG WINDS/HEAVY RAIN.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

307 AM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO MONDAY REACHING JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN WINDS
WILL SHIFT WESTERLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE TODAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO TONIGHT WHILE THE DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN MORE
PATCHY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. CMS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.

&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 1146 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE REST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
TODAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPS A BIT MAINLY SE PORTION OF CWA.
ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS WIDESPREAD IN THIS AREA ATTM... TEMPS ALREADY
NEAR FCST HIGHS AND EXPECT CONTD DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE THIS AFTN. NO CHANGE TO EARLIER UPDATED POPS.
SCT SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG TROF OVER NW OH/SE MI/NE IN. AS
TROF MOVES EAST THIS AFTN SUBSIDENCE SHOULD HINDER FURTHER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DESPITE EXPECTED MODERATE INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE APPROACH OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.

LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS MAKING PROGRESS EAST FROM SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED
MID LEVEL WAVE. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR ACTIVITY TO SHIFT MORE NE
THAN E AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WITH TIME. UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING SURFACE BASED
CAPES 500 TO 1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES -3 TO -5 C. HRRR 00Z AND
02Z RUNS BOTH DEPICTED OVERALL SETUP QUITE WELL...DOWN TO ISOLATED
CONVECTION NW OF CHICAGO AND A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVER LK MI. IF
FOLLOWING AT FACE VALUE THEN CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE BUT
EVENTUALLY FALL APART TOWARDS MORNING AS MAIN ENERGY LIFTS NORTH.
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...THESE SAME RUNS DO SHOW SOME WIDELY SCT TO
MAYBE SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 14Z AS LEFTOVERS AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ILLINOIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES THROUGH. SMALL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH TROUGH QUICKLY EXITING BY 20Z WITH RAPID
DECREASE IN PRECIP AFTER THAT. PREVIOUS GRIDS ALREADY HAD MORNING
TREND IN PLACE AND NO REASON TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES. ALSO...MID RANGE
CHC POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH AT MOST CHANGE TO SCT WORDING.
SOME CONCERN THAT LITTLE OVERALL PRECIP MAY OCCUR. CLEARING WILL
TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE MID 80S.

TROUGH WILL NOT REALLY TAKE ANY OF THE LOW LEVEL MSTR WITH IT AS
DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE UPR 60S TO LOWER 70S...YIELDING A MUGGY NIGHT
FOR THE REGION WITH LOWS AROUND 70. ON THE PLUS SIDE...DRY FORECAST
SHOULD EXIST WITH FORCING MECHANISMS TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE OPENING INTO A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS TROUGH WILL HELP DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR LOCAL
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY MID WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS IN THE BEGINNING PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. A VERY WARM AND MOIST MONDAY IS ON TAP WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER AND EVEN MID 70S. PWAT VALUES
NEARING 2 INCHES AND CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2-3K J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH VALUES LESS THAN 7C/KM AND NO STRONG
TRIGGER NOTED. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND INDUCED VORTICITY
MAXIMA REMAIN POSSIBLE AND COULD EASILY IGNITE SCATTERED TSRA. THUS
LOW CHANCE POPS WARRANTED FOR MONDAY. LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BE BE
MOVING INTO UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. TIMING NOT IDEAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT EXPECT ORGANIZED
LINE OF STORMS UPSTREAM IN THE EVENING WITH A FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FOR WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH CHANCE POP EAST INTO TUE
MORNING.

DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY FALL TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA. MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH REGION WEDNESDAY
AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION SO WILL HOLD
ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR THEN EXPECTED WED
NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. STAYED WITH ALLBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

BAND OF SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH WKNG UPR LEVEL TROF MOVG INTO THE
AREA LIFTING NE AND BYPASSING NRN INDIANA TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS
MORNING. POTENTIAL WITH DIURNAL HEATING FOR SOME SHRA/TS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE THIS AFTN BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF SBN BY
THAT TIME AND PSBLY EAST OF FWA BUT IN EITHER CASE CONFIDENCE ON
TSRA IMPACTING TERMINALS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS. OTRWS
STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF/MIX OUT BY AFTN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
BECOMING VFR. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
MOIST LOW LEVELS SHOULD LEAD TO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WITH MVFR CIGS AGAIN
TOWARD DAYBREAK.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 800 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION MAINLY THIS MORNING. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE BACK IN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. REGIONAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S TODAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&


.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 20145

UPDATED TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AS BULK OF SHOWERS
BYPASSING OUR CWA TO THE NW. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TROF AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...
BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING NW THIS MORNING SO BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTN ACROSS THE NE... AND EVEN THERE ITS
DOUBTFUL AS UPR TROF WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE APPROACH OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.

LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS MAKING PROGRESS EAST FROM SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED
MID LEVEL WAVE. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR ACTIVITY TO SHIFT MORE NE
THAN E AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WITH TIME. UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING SURFACE BASED
CAPES 500 TO 1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES -3 TO -5 C. HRRR 00Z AND
02Z RUNS BOTH DEPICTED OVERALL SETUP QUITE WELL...DOWN TO ISOLATED
CONVECTION NW OF CHICAGO AND A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVER LK MI. IF
FOLLOWING AT FACE VALUE THEN CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE BUT
EVENTUALLY FALL APART TOWARDS MORNING AS MAIN ENERGY LIFTS NORTH.
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...THESE SAME RUNS DO SHOW SOME WIDELY SCT TO
MAYBE SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 14Z AS LEFTOVERS AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ILLINOIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES THROUGH. SMALL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH TROUGH QUICKLY EXITING BY 20Z WITH RAPID
DECREASE IN PRECIP AFTER THAT. PREVIOUS GRIDS ALREADY HAD MORNING
TREND IN PLACE AND NO REASON TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES. ALSO...MID RANGE
CHC POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH AT MOST CHANGE TO SCT WORDING.
SOME CONCERN THAT LITTLE OVERALL PRECIP MAY OCCUR. CLEARING WILL
TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE MID 80S.

TROUGH WILL NOT REALLY TAKE ANY OF THE LOW LEVEL MSTR WITH IT AS
DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE UPR 60S TO LOWER 70S...YIELDING A MUGGY NIGHT
FOR THE REGION WITH LOWS AROUND 70. ON THE PLUS SIDE...DRY FORECAST
SHOULD EXIST WITH FORCING MECHANISMS TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE OPENING INTO A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS TROUGH WILL HELP DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR LOCAL
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY MID WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS IN THE BEGINNING PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. A VERY WARM AND MOIST MONDAY IS ON TAP WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER AND EVEN MID 70S. PWAT VALUES
NEARING 2 INCHES AND CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2-3K J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH VALUES LESS THAN 7C/KM AND NO STRONG
TRIGGER NOTED. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND INDUCED VORTICITY
MAXIMA REMAIN POSSIBLE AND COULD EASILY IGNITE SCATTERED TSRA. THUS
LOW CHANCE POPS WARRANTED FOR MONDAY. LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BE BE
MOVING INTO UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. TIMING NOT IDEAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT EXPECT ORGANIZED
LINE OF STORMS UPSTREAM IN THE EVENING WITH A FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FOR WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH CHANCE POP EAST INTO TUE
MORNING.

DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY FALL TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA. MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH REGION WEDNESDAY
AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION SO WILL HOLD
ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR THEN EXPECTED WED
NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. STAYED WITH ALLBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

BAND OF SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH WKNG UPR LEVEL TROF MOVG INTO THE
AREA LIFTING NE AND BYPASSING NRN INDIANA TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS
MORNING. POTENTIAL WITH DIURNAL HEATING FOR SOME SHRA/TS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE THIS AFTN BUT SHOULD BE EAST OF SBN BY
THAT TIME AND PSBLY EAST OF FWA BUT IN EITHER CASE CONFIDENCE ON
TSRA IMPACTING TERMINALS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS. OTRWS
STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF/MIX OUT BY AFTN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
BECOMING VFR. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
MOIST LOW LEVELS SHOULD LEAD TO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WITH MVFR CIGS AGAIN
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 608 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

08Z water vapor imagery shows a closed low along the ND/Canadian
boarder with zonal flow from the central plains through the eastern
Pacific ocean. At the surface, a surface low was north of ND with a
trough of low pressure extending south through the Dakotas and into
the southern high plains. Obs indicate a very moist low level
airmass with dewpoints in the lower 70s is currently advecting
northwest into the central high plains. This moisture advection
along with convergence along the nose of the low level jet have
combined to produce elevated thunderstorms across western KS.

For today, the models show little in the way of synoptic scale
forcing upstream of the forecast area, and they keep the broad
surface trough of low pressure to the west of the area. This should
allow for the moist airmass to remain over the area and with daytime
heating, become very unstable by this afternoon. The RAP and NAM
show surface based CAPE values around 4000 J/kg developing as highs
warm to around 90. Additionally there is not much in the way of
inhibition to convection. So the concern is any little vort max
could set off robust convection today. The RAP and NAM want to bring
just such a vort max, generated from the elevated convection over
western KS, over northeast KS during peak heating. In addition to
the potential instability, deep layer shear should be stronger with
the zonal flow aloft increasing mid level winds. Models prog 0-6 km
shear could increase to around 50 KTS. So while forcing is not
all that great, the combination of shear and instability could be
more than enough for severe thunderstorms if the trigger comes along
and sets off convection. The main concerns with storms would be
large hail and torrential rainfall due to steep mid level lapse
rates and high PWs. 0-1 KM shear parameters appear to favor any
tornado potential just to the north of the forecast area until the
early evening when storms may have evolved into an MCS. However any
discrete storm that may interact with an outflow boundary and
locally backed winds could see an enhances tornado potential this
afternoon across northeast KS. Of course this is expecting the
elevated convection to the west to fall apart or dive southeast
this morning as the high res models have suggested. Because of this
there still remains some uncertainty in how storms will evolve
through the day. At this point, the forecast expects the convection
to the west to weaken before getting to deep into eastern KS as the
boundary layer mixes out and convergence along the low level jet
diminishes. Then storms may form over southeast NEB or northern KS
early this afternoon.

For tonight a moist and unstable airmass is anticipated to persist
through the night as the low level jet redevelops. So while storms
from the afternoon and early evening may eventually move east, it is
hard to rule out possible elevated convection forming during the
overnight. Convergence and instability look better across northern
KS and into NEB so this is where the forecast will hold onto some
chance POPs through the overnight. Temps will be warm overnight as a
muggy airmass hangs in across the area. Lows are forecast to be in
the lower and mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

Another day of conditional severe convection is expected on Monday
afternoon. The main exception would be the cold front providing a
more organized area of lift to initiate late afternoon/early evening
thunderstorms. On the other hand, a wrench in the forecast could be
in the mesoscale features of how Sunday evening`s storm complex
evolves across the area. Believe the latest NAM may be a bit too
fast pushing the line of convection east before midnight while
developing an additional storm complex over Nebraska, impacting
northeast KS by midday Monday. This would offer little or no time
for the atmosphere to recover. Otherwise the GFS and ECMWF have been
in more consistent agreement of seeing some decent clearing across
central and east central areas Monday morning/afternoon. Unusually
high moisture content present with dewpoint temps progged in the low
to mid 70s will create a sharp instability gradient. Portions of
northeast, east central and central KS may see surface CAPE values
in excess of 4000 J/KG while deep layer shear resides in the 40 to
50 kt range. If we can realize a dry period and clearing on Monday,
scattered strong to severe storms are possible along and ahead of
the front. Best timing would be during the late afternoon when a
strong capping inversion erodes.

Second story of note for Monday will be the heat and humidity.
Strong surface heating/mixing ahead of the boundary will contribute
to highs in the lower and middle 90s. Heat indices appear to be
much higher as strong moisture pooling in the 70s bring readings in
the 100 to 103 range. If we are able to mix slightly warmer
temperatures downward, we may be close to advisory criteria.

Main change to the forecast is with increasing precip chances
further north late Monday evening into Tuesday as operational
guidance is showing increasing similarities in a stout shortwave
trough rounding the base of the broad upper trough axis over Kansas.
In addition, decent frontogenesis in the 850-700 MB layer provides
an enhanced area of lift for showers developing over central Kansas,
tracking east into the CWA. Instability is limited with main
concerns being light to moderate rainfall. Dependent on the speed
and intensity of the showers, localized flooding is possible.
Locations south of Interstate 70 see the best possibility of the
this occurrence, based on the track of the upper trough. In addition
to the precip chances, high temps Tuesday behind the front were
lowered to near 80 degrees under mostly cloudy skies.

With ridging to our west and no apparent areas of upper forcing,
have opted to go dry Wednesday through late Friday evening.
Independence Day at this time is mostly dry and warm with an incoming
wave tracking east across the weakening ridge. The GFS is much
faster than the ECMWF so will keep slight chances across northern
areas late Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 608 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

There remains a fair amount of uncertainty in how TS will evolve
today since there is no dominant synoptic scale feature forcing
convection. At this time, the forecast goes along with the idea of
TS developing along the moisture gradient over southeast NEB and
moving into northern KS late this afternoon. However is convection
continues developing across western KS and southwestern NEB,
storms could move into the terminals earlier in the afternoon. If
storms enter the terminals, think IFR VSBY and at least MVFR CIGS
are likely due to expected heavy rainfall. TAFs will likely need
fine tuning as the day progresses.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 1118 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

OUTFLOW FROM THE WESTERN TN MCS WILL SERVE AS FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS IN
THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING
ENE DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPDATED NDFD AND
ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS REFLECT THIS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE SENT TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS SHORTLY AFTER 14Z.
UPDATE WILL PRIMARILY BE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SKY
COVER...TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. THE GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY IS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS EAST KY OF 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES AT
12Z...WITH THE 12Z ILN AND OHX SOUNDINGS AT 1.58 AND 1.55 INCHES. AS
SUCH HEAVY RAINERS STILL A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. STORM
MOTION MAY BE SLIGHTLY GREATER TODAY AT 11 TO 14 KNOTS BASED ON
MORNING SOUNDINGS. EVEN SO WITH CLUSTERS OF MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY ALSO LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES EAST KY IN 5
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR DAMAGING WIND. WILL ALSO BE UPDATING THE HWO
TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE THREATS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE POPS AND MINIMIZE THE FOG FOR THE REST OF
THE MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER...T...AND TD GRIDS BASED ON TH
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS WITH A NEW SET OF ZONES AND HWO TO FOLLOW BY 8 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SIMILAR SET UP AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH A
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST...NOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY LYING OVER EAST KENTUCKY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WELL AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW IS KEEPING A SUPPLY OF WARM AND HUMID
AIR ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. AS SUCH...DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 60S THROUGH THE AREA WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO
HIGHER IN MOST PLACES. ON RADAR...A LATE EVENING LULL IN ACTIVITY HAS
RETURNED TO EAST KENTUCKY AS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERNMOST
COUNTIES HAVE FADED OUT. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHOWERS IS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...HEADING TOWARD THE CWA. ON SATELLITE...MID LEVEL
CLOUDS BRIEFLY REDEVELOPED EARLIER BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH A NEW UPSURGE IS NOTED IN RECENT IMAGES. SO FAR THERE
HAS BEEN ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP THE FOG FROM SHOWING UP TOO THICK
IN THE AREA OBS AND WEB CAMS.

THE MODELS ARE AGAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THEY ALL TAKE THE DEEP AND BROAD CLOSED LOW FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS CIRCULATION WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NATION WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY
RIPPLING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FLANK AND BRUSHING PAST KENTUCKY. THE
LEADING ONE OF THESE WILL PASS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER
HELPING TO FURTHER SUPPRESS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. ANOTHER MINOR WAVE
WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. HEIGHTS OVER KENTUCKY WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED INTO MONDAY EVENING EVEN THOUGH THE
SOUTHERN RIDGE TRIES TO EDGE BACK NORTH INTO KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT...AND THE SMALL SCALE OF THE DETERMINATIVE
FEATURES...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MODEL BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SHOWERS...AND THEN INCREASINGLY
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY TODAY AND PEAKING IN
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO DAYS ANY STORM
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH PWS...GREATER
THAN 1.7 INCHES...AND FAIRLY SLOW MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT CAN BE
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW WITH PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...A CONCERN ALONG
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. FOR MONDAY...THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE A TAD
DRIER...BUT THIS MAY ONLY SERVE TO ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS AND STORMS
DRIVEN BY THE BETTER INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESSER THAN THAT OF TODAY.

THE BCCONSSHORT WAS TAKEN FOR A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD
GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN THE BCCONSALL USED
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RIDGE AND
VALLEY SPOTS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP PRETTY CLOSE TO A MOS
BLEND...WITH A DIURNAL FLARE...THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS THE APPALACHIAN REGION OF
EASTERN KY OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO ONTARIO...ALLOWING A DEEP TROUGH TO MOVE INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION
EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
AMPLITUDE AS IT DOES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP A STRONG HOLD
ACROSS THE SE DURING THIS TIME...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BE SUPPRESSED
MORE SWRD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
AND LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO CEASE ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WHILE A BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CORRESPOND WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL BLOCK THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THIS FRONT. AS A RESULT...STILL EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT
AND WEAKEN ACROSS KENTUCKY DURING THE MIDWEEK.  BEFORE IT IS FINALLY
ABLE TO DROP SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...WINDS WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO A MORE NRLY DIRECTION...AND DRIER MORE STABLE AIR
WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION. POPS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH CLOUDS FOLLOWING SUIT. TEMPS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DROP BY THURSDAY...REACHING THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT
WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY IN THE AIR. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SHOULD
KEEP POPS OUT OF EASTERN KY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...GOOD DIURNAL RADIATION WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING
HIGH TEMPERATURES /BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S/ FOR
SATURDAY...WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
THE LOW 60S OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO EAST KENTUCKY LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCES WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHERE TEMPOS ARE IN
THE TAFS FOR MVFR VIS FROM THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. DROPPED THE VCTS BACK TO VCSH A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 944 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE SENT TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS SHORTLY AFTER 14Z.
UPDATE WILL PRIMARILY BE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SKY
COVER...TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. THE GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY IS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS EAST KY OF 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES AT
12Z...WITH THE 12Z ILN AND OHX SOUNDINGS AT 1.58 AND 1.55 INCHES. AS
SUCH HEAVY RAINERS STILL A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. STORM
MOTION MAY BE SLIGHTLY GREATER TODAY AT 11 TO 14 KNOTS BASED ON
MORNING SOUNDINGS. EVEN SO WITH CLUSTERS OF MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY ALSO LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES EAST KY IN 5
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR DAMAGING WIND. WILL ALSO BE UPDATING THE HWO
TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE THREATS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE POPS AND MINIMIZE THE FOG FOR THE REST OF
THE MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER...T...AND TD GRIDS BASED ON TH
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS WITH A NEW SET OF ZONES AND HWO TO FOLLOW BY 8 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SIMILAR SET UP AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH A
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST...NOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY LYING OVER EAST KENTUCKY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WELL AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW IS KEEPING A SUPPLY OF WARM AND HUMID
AIR ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. AS SUCH...DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 60S THROUGH THE AREA WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO
HIGHER IN MOST PLACES. ON RADAR...A LATE EVENING LULL IN ACTIVITY HAS
RETURNED TO EAST KENTUCKY AS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERNMOST
COUNTIES HAVE FADED OUT. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHOWERS IS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...HEADING TOWARD THE CWA. ON SATELLITE...MID LEVEL
CLOUDS BRIEFLY REDEVELOPED EARLIER BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH A NEW UPSURGE IS NOTED IN RECENT IMAGES. SO FAR THERE
HAS BEEN ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP THE FOG FROM SHOWING UP TOO THICK
IN THE AREA OBS AND WEB CAMS.

THE MODELS ARE AGAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THEY ALL TAKE THE DEEP AND BROAD CLOSED LOW FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS CIRCULATION WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NATION WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY
RIPPLING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FLANK AND BRUSHING PAST KENTUCKY. THE
LEADING ONE OF THESE WILL PASS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER
HELPING TO FURTHER SUPPRESS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. ANOTHER MINOR WAVE
WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. HEIGHTS OVER KENTUCKY WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED INTO MONDAY EVENING EVEN THOUGH THE
SOUTHERN RIDGE TRIES TO EDGE BACK NORTH INTO KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT...AND THE SMALL SCALE OF THE DETERMINATIVE
FEATURES...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MODEL BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SHOWERS...AND THEN INCREASINGLY
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY TODAY AND PEAKING IN
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO DAYS ANY STORM
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH PWS...GREATER
THAN 1.7 INCHES...AND FAIRLY SLOW MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT CAN BE
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW WITH PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...A CONCERN ALONG
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. FOR MONDAY...THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE A TAD
DRIER...BUT THIS MAY ONLY SERVE TO ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS AND STORMS
DRIVEN BY THE BETTER INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESSER THAN THAT OF TODAY.

THE BCCONSSHORT WAS TAKEN FOR A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD
GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN THE BCCONSALL USED
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RIDGE AND
VALLEY SPOTS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP PRETTY CLOSE TO A MOS
BLEND...WITH A DIURNAL FLARE...THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS THE APPALACHIAN REGION OF
EASTERN KY OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO ONTARIO...ALLOWING A DEEP TROUGH TO MOVE INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION
EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
AMPLITUDE AS IT DOES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP A STRONG HOLD
ACROSS THE SE DURING THIS TIME...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BE SUPPRESSED
MORE SWRD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
AND LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO CEASE ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WHILE A BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CORRESPOND WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL BLOCK THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THIS FRONT. AS A RESULT...STILL EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT
AND WEAKEN ACROSS KENTUCKY DURING THE MIDWEEK.  BEFORE IT IS FINALLY
ABLE TO DROP SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...WINDS WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO A MORE NRLY DIRECTION...AND DRIER MORE STABLE AIR
WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION. POPS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH CLOUDS FOLLOWING SUIT. TEMPS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DROP BY THURSDAY...REACHING THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT
WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY IN THE AIR. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SHOULD
KEEP POPS OUT OF EASTERN KY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...GOOD DIURNAL RADIATION WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING
HIGH TEMPERATURES /BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S/ FOR
SATURDAY...WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
THE LOW 60S OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO EAST KENTUCKY LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCES WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHERE TEMPOS ARE IN
THE TAFS FOR MVFR VIS FROM THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. DROPPED THE VCTS BACK TO VCSH A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

 654 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 654 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

Updated public forecast to expand likely probabilities of showers
and thunderstorms further north into southern Illinois to account
for convective development that continues to expand eastward from
south central into southeast Missouri.

Also revised aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be a possibility today
as the Quad State region remains in a warm, moist, and unstable
environment. Specifically, showers and thunderstorms have developed
overnight over portions of southeast Missouri, northeast Arkansas,
and western Tennessee in response to the approach of a mid level
shortwave trough and the development of weak mid level convergence
in advance of this feature. Utilizing the HRRR and various runs of
the NAM-WRF, anticipate the activity to our southwest will continue
to spread northeast through early morning. Southeast Missouri, far
southern Illinois, and much of western Kentucky will see the
greatest coverage, with lesser coverage further north. As the wave
begins to shift east of the area, the overall chance of showers
and thunderstorms will decrease from west to east this afternoon
and evening. Temperatures will be highly dependent on how much
sunshine we see today, but current thinking is most areas will be
able to make mid 80s by afternoon.

Model forecast soundings indicate a drying of the mid atmosphere
as the northern periphery of an upper level ridge over the
southern U.S. briefly becomes more influential on Monday. As a
result, most areas should remain precipitation free, though an
isolated thunderstorm is certainly possible. With more sunshine,
temperatures will climb back into the lower 90s Monday and
Tuesday. Heat index readings will likely peak near 100 degrees
both Monday and Tuesday across much of the area.

Late Monday night and especially Tuesday, the chance of showers
and thunderstorms will be on the increase as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Isolated strong to severe storms
cannot be ruled out during this time, but the potential for
organized severe weather appears rather low at this point.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

Upper trof still forecast to move slowly east across the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region late Tuesday through Thursday. Until
the final h5 trof axis swings through Thursday, will have to linger
PoPs for convection through Wednesday night given the active SW flow
ahead of the h5 trof, causing a slow SE frontal movement. Once the
mid level trof axis moves through Thursday, the flow aloft will turn
NW with high pressure building into the region into the first part
of the weekend. This change will allow for slightly lower
temperatures and humidity, including for the 4th of July holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 654 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

The passage of a mid level shortwave disturbance will bring
scattered to numerous thunderstorms to the region today. Better
chances at KCGI and KPAH will be this morning through midday. The
activity should expand eastward to impact KEVV and KOWB by late
morning and afternoon. Will amend TAFs as necessary when specific
timing becomes more clear. MVFR ceilings have developed at KCGI and
are attempting to do so at KPAH. High MVFR or low VFR ceilings
should develop at all forecast terminals by 15Z, and a further
reduction may occur in association with thunderstorm activity. South
winds around 10 knots with gusts to 15 knots will subside somewhat
tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RJP
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...RJP






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

 740 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE POPS AND MINIMIZE THE FOG FOR THE REST OF
THE MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER...T...AND TD GRIDS BASED ON TH
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS WITH A NEW SET OF ZONES AND HWO TO FOLLOW BY 8 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SIMILAR SET UP AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH A
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST...NOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY LYING OVER EAST KENTUCKY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WELL AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW IS KEEPING A SUPPLY OF WARM AND HUMID
AIR ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. AS SUCH...DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 60S THROUGH THE AREA WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO
HIGHER IN MOST PLACES. ON RADAR...A LATE EVENING LULL IN ACTIVITY HAS
RETURNED TO EAST KENTUCKY AS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERNMOST
COUNTIES HAVE FADED OUT. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHOWERS IS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...HEADING TOWARD THE CWA. ON SATELLITE...MID LEVEL
CLOUDS BRIEFLY REDEVELOPED EARLIER BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH A NEW UPSURGE IS NOTED IN RECENT IMAGES. SO FAR THERE
HAS BEEN ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP THE FOG FROM SHOWING UP TOO THICK
IN THE AREA OBS AND WEB CAMS.

THE MODELS ARE AGAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THEY ALL TAKE THE DEEP AND BROAD CLOSED LOW FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS CIRCULATION WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NATION WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY
RIPPLING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FLANK AND BRUSHING PAST KENTUCKY. THE
LEADING ONE OF THESE WILL PASS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER
HELPING TO FURTHER SUPPRESS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. ANOTHER MINOR WAVE
WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. HEIGHTS OVER KENTUCKY WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED INTO MONDAY EVENING EVEN THOUGH THE
SOUTHERN RIDGE TRIES TO EDGE BACK NORTH INTO KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT...AND THE SMALL SCALE OF THE DETERMINATIVE
FEATURES...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MODEL BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SHOWERS...AND THEN INCREASINGLY
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY TODAY AND PEAKING IN
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO DAYS ANY STORM
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH PWS...GREATER
THAN 1.7 INCHES...AND FAIRLY SLOW MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT CAN BE
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW WITH PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...A CONCERN ALONG
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. FOR MONDAY...THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE A TAD
DRIER...BUT THIS MAY ONLY SERVE TO ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS AND STORMS
DRIVEN BY THE BETTER INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESSER THAN THAT OF TODAY.

THE BCCONSSHORT WAS TAKEN FOR A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD
GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN THE BCCONSALL USED
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RIDGE AND
VALLEY SPOTS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP PRETTY CLOSE TO A MOS
BLEND...WITH A DIURNAL FLARE...THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS THE APPALACHIAN REGION OF
EASTERN KY OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO ONTARIO...ALLOWING A DEEP TROUGH TO MOVE INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION
EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
AMPLITUDE AS IT DOES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP A STRONG HOLD
ACROSS THE SE DURING THIS TIME...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BE SUPPRESSED
MORE SWRD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
AND LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO CEASE ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WHILE A BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CORRESPOND WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL BLOCK THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THIS FRONT. AS A RESULT...STILL EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT
AND WEAKEN ACROSS KENTUCKY DURING THE MIDWEEK.  BEFORE IT IS FINALLY
ABLE TO DROP SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...WINDS WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO A MORE NRLY DIRECTION...AND DRIER MORE STABLE AIR
WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION. POPS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH CLOUDS FOLLOWING SUIT. TEMPS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DROP BY THURSDAY...REACHING THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT
WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY IN THE AIR. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SHOULD
KEEP POPS OUT OF EASTERN KY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...GOOD DIURNAL RADIATION WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING
HIGH TEMPERATURES /BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S/ FOR
SATURDAY...WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
THE LOW 60S OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO EAST KENTUCKY LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCES WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHERE TEMPOS ARE IN
THE TAFS FOR MVFR VIS FROM THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. DROPPED THE VCTS BACK TO VCSH A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 751 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP CLOSED LO
JUST SW OF LK WINNIPEG UPSTREAM OF UPR RDG SRETCHING FM HUDSON BAY
INTO THE SE CONUS. VIGOROUS SHRTWV LIFTING NNEWD THRU MN IN THE SLY
FLOW ALF BTWN THESE FEATURES AND ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC OVER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E/PWAT UP TO 1.70 INCHES /175 PCT
OF NORMAL/ IS CAUSING A BAND OF SHOWERS/TS FM WRN LK SUP SWD THRU
WRN UPR MI AND WI. OTHER ISOLD SHRA/TS HAVE FORMED OVER THE SCENTRAL
CWA TO THE E OF THE MAIN LINE OF SHRA/TS WHERE LATEST RUC SHOWS MORE
VIGOROUS H85 THETA E ADVCTN AND ANOTHER WEAKER SHRTWV IN ADVANCE OF
THE MAIN FEATURE. DESPITE THE RATHER VIGOROUS DYNAMIC FORCING...
FAIRLY SHARP NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN INTO THE MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS/WEAK DEEP LYR 0-6KM SHEAR GENERALLY NO GREATER THAN
20-25KTS/WEAK DOWNDRAFT CAPE HAS LIMITED THE INTENSITY OF THE TS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHOWER/TS LINE.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS SHORT TERM PACKAGE INCLUDE SHOWER/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV IN MN EARLY THIS MRNG AND OTHER DISTURBANCES
ROTATING ARND MAIN CLOSED LO IN SRN CANADA.

EARLY THIS MRNG/TODAY...MN SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC ARE PROGGED TO SWING NEWD THRU UPR MI/LK SUP INTO ONTARIO
EARLY THIS AFTN...GIVING WAY TO A PERIOD OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/
MID LVL DRYING. THE LATEST RUC AND THE BULK OF THE OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN WL OCCUR UNDER THE
BETTER FORCING AND CONTRIBUTE TO FALLING MUCAPES IN THE ABSENCE OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SUSPECT THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS/TS WL TEND TO
DIMINISH AS THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE NE THRU THE CWA. LIKE THE
AREA OF SHOWERS/TS THAT FORMED OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA EARLIER WELL IN
ADVANCE OF THE LARGER LINE OF SHOWERS...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS/SOME TS
TO DVLP E OF THE LARGER SCALE LINE WHERE H85 THETA E ADVCTN WL BE
MORE SUBSTANTIAL. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON THIS EXPECTATION. ALL OF THESE SHOWERS/TS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NE
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING DYNAMICS THIS AFTN. NEXT CONCERN IS WHETHER
MORE SHRA/TS WL DVLP THIS AFTN WITH THE RETURN OF SOME CLRG
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE AXIS OF LOWER H85 THETA E AND THE
PSBL APRCH OF ANOTHER SHRTWV NOW MOVING E THRU SDAKOTA TO THE S OF
THE CLOSED LO. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF H85 THETA E ADVCTN
REDVLPG LATER TODAY AT A TIME WHEN THIS SHRTWV WL BE APRCHG FM THE
W. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WL BE THE LARGER SCALE DRYING LEFT IN
THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS FCST TO DROP PWAT CLOSE
TO AN INCH. WL GO NO HIER THAN LO CHC POPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY DESPITE
FCST STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES UP TO 7-7.5C/KM ENHANCED BY DAYTIME
HEATING THAT WL LIFT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FM THE COOLING
INFLUENCE OF LK MI.

TNGT...DISTURBANCE THAT MIGHT CAUSE SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS/TS WL
SHIFT TO THE NE LATER IN THE EVNG. MODELS THEN HINT ANOTHER STRONGER
SHRTWV/AREA OF DPVA AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL APRCH LATER AT
NGT. WENT WITH THE HIER POPS OVER THE SE CWA CLOSER TO AXIS OF HIER
H85 THETA E AND WHERE THE 12Z ECMWF CONSISTENT 00Z CNDN MODELS SHOW
THE HIER QPF. SINCE THE BULK OF THE MODELS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR
PERSISTING OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA WITH MEAN H85-5 RH AS LO AS
30-40 PCT...OPTED TO KEEP THESE AREAS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
CLOSE OFF TODAY AND BE NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT OVER LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ON MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE MERGING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER FAR NORTHERN
CANADA MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...IT WILL LEAVE A TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TRANSITION TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS OVER LAKE WINNIPEG MONDAY MORNING...THERE
LOOKS TO BE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE EXACT TRACK/TIMING OF
THESE WAVES HAVE BEEN VARYING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IT
APPEARS ONE WILL SHIFT THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES...ALONG WITH A COLD
FRONT. PINNING DOWN THE TIMING/LOCATIONS OF THESE WAVES IS ALWAYS
DIFFICULT AND WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY LINGER SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA ON MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA.
THEN...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST TREND IS FOR THIS WAVE AND
SURFACE TROUGH TO KICK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN (FOLLOWING STORM MOTION AND FORWARD PROPAGATING
CORFIDI VECTORS). WHERE THAT DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WILL BE THE KEY TO
MONDAY NIGHTS FORECAST AND WITH THE TREND TOWARDS IT BEING FARTHER
SOUTH...HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN SOME OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING (KEEPING LIKELY VALUES RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND DIMINISHING CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST). ALSO
FOR MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEST HALF WILL SEE BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS. HAVE TRENDED WINDS UP SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TREND TOWARDS
MORE SUN AND BETTER MIXING INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND HAVE
GUSTS TO 30KTS FOR THE WEST HALF/THIRD. IN ADDITION...WITH THE
TREND TOWARDS BETTER MIXING...THERE ARE INDICATIONS DEWPOINTS COULD
MIX OUT AND FALL LOWER THAN THE LOW/MID 50S CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST. MIXED LAYER DEWPOINT VALUES FROM THE MODELS ARE HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR VALUES TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S...BUT THINK A
LOT DEPENDS ON EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION. WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS...MIXING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S WOULD CREATE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS (RH FALLING INTO UPPER 20S
ALTHOUGH THE WEST HAS SEEN THE MOST PRECIP LATELY)...SO WILL NEED TO
WATCH THAT POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT DAY.

BEHIND THE MONDAY EVENING WAVE...SHOULD GET A DRY PERIOD AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BUT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO DIURNAL
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAND AREAS...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO HAVE TRENDED POPS UP
TO HIGH END CHANCES OVER THE AFTERNOON AND ATTEMPTED TO SHOW A RAMP
UP DURING THE MORNING. WITH ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 100-400 J/KG
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH DIURNAL HEATING LOST...THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SHOWER CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END.

EXPECT A MUCH COOLER PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
(FROM A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS) NOSES EAST INTO THE
AREA. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTOLLING THINGS...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR WED/THURS AND GENERALLY IN THE 60S. WILL
NEED TO WATCH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE TRENDED LOWS DOWN A
LITTLE...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE COLD SPOTS OUT
WEST APPROACH 40 OR EVEN UPPER 30S.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PULLING OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND THE
HIGH CENTER SHIFTING EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR NO PRECIP ON THE 4TH
OF JULY DUE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE STILL OVER THE AREA.
THEREFORE...HAVE PULLED THE PRECIPITATION MENTION. CONFIDENCE
DECREASES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SINCE THE 00Z MODEL
RUNS ARE ONLY SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE...HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN
TO LOW END CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

COMBINATION OF MOIST LLVL FLOW AND BAND OF SHRA THAT WL IMPACT
CMX/SAW THIS MRNG WL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
AT SAW WHERE THE MORE FVRBL SSE UPSLOPE WIND OFF LK MI WL BRING
PREDOMINANT LIFR CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE HRS. THE BAND OF
SHRA HAS ALREADY MOVED TO THE NE OF IWD...BUT MVFR CIGS WERE OBSVD
AT MOST NEARBY SITES. SO DESPITE DOWNSLOPE SSW WIND...OPTED TO
INCLUDE A MENTION OF AT LEAST TEMPO MVFR CIGS THERE THRU 15Z. THE
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL BRING A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY
AFTN TO ALL THE SITES. WITH DEEP MIXING...EXPECT GUSTY SW WINDS UP
TO 25-30 KTS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL
-SHRA/PERHAPS A TS LATER THIS AFTN WITH THE APRCH OF ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION ATTM DUE TO EXPECTED
LARGER SCALE DRYING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WL CROSS THE GREAT LKS LATER TNGT...BUT THE ACCOMPANYING PCPN IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN S OF THE FCST POINTS. EXPECT VFR WX TO PREVAIL TNGT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WARM AIR MOVING OVER THE COOL LAKE
SUPERIOR WATERS...EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO KEEP WINDS BELOW 25KTS
DURING THIS TIME. THE HUMID AIR WILL ALSO PRODUCE FOG OVER PORTIONS
OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UP TO
20KTS. THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AND LEAD TO WEAKENING WINDS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...SRF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

 1058 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
ADJUSTED THE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDS AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE. ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE POPS IN THE NORTH.
CONVECTION HAS NOT STARTED AND MAY NEED ANOTHER HOUR OR SO OF BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS TO GET GOING. THE LOCAL WRF SHOWS SOME ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHEAST. THE RUC IS SIMILAR TO THE OTHER
MODELS...KEEPING THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH. CONTINUING TO WATCH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THE SOUTH OF THE COMPLEX OVER TN/AR.
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATER
TODAY AND PUSH EVERYTHING OUT OF THE AREA. OTHER THAN A FEW TWEAKS
THE FORECAST WAS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST LOCATIONS ARE SEEING MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE AND
THIS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE DAY AND
THERE SHOULD BE LESS CONVECTION AROUND TO AFFECT TAF SITES. THAT
BEING SAID...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR(KGLH/KGWO/KGTR).
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. LOW STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG...AGAIN REDUCING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES TO IFR/MVFR
CATEGORIES...ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TOWARDS DAY BREAK MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS AND
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO CALM AT MOST SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  73  94  73 /  21   6   3   4
MERIDIAN      93  71  95  69 /  23   8  14   4
VICKSBURG     91  72  93  71 /  20   5   3   4
HATTIESBURG   93  74  96  73 /  16   5  11   9
NATCHEZ       90  73  92  73 /  10   4   3   7
GREENVILLE    91  74  94  74 /  35   7   3   4
GREENWOOD     91  73  95  72 /  36   8   4   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

7/28






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 650 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING SWD INTO THE OZARKS. LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW EXTENDED WEST
TO THE PACIFIC COAST...WHILE EAST OF THE LOW...A RIDGE EXTENDED
UP THE EASTERN CONUS INTO SRN HUDSON BAY. WV IMAGERY AS OF 230 AM
CDT...HAS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SWRN MANITOBA WITH A NICE
SHORTWAVE OVER NRN SD...WITH CONVECTION NOTED OVER FAR NRN
NEBRASKA AND THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. ADDTL SUPPORT FOR
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LIES WITH A NICE JET
STREAK...VISIBLE ON CURRENT WV IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTH INTO
NERN NEBRASKA...THEN SW INTO SWRN NEBRASKA...OR ROUGHLY ALONG A
LINE FROM WATERTOWN SOUTH DAKOTA...TO ONEILL NEBRASKA...TO JUST
WEST OF MCCOOK NEBRASKA. VERY MOIST AIR WAS PRESENT EAST OF THIS
FEATURE...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. WEST OF THE FEATURE...DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 50S WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES AS
OF 3 AM CDT...RANGED FROM 61 AT THEDFORD AND VALENTINE...TO 66 AT
BROKEN BOW...OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS. FOR TODAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS FOR INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING. AS IT
STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE LATEST HRRR MODEL...DOES LINGER SOME
CONVECTION IN EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE
MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE
HRRR IS TOO SLOW WITH PCPN EXITING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL END PCPN IN THE EAST BY MID
MORNING. LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING AND THE
APPROACH OF A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE INVOF OF THE BEFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH. ATTM...AM EXPECTING THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE LITTLE
TODAY...SO LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM O`NEILL TO EAST
OF NORTH PLATTE...WILL BE UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS....ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE CAPES WILL REACH 3000 TO 4000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
ATTM...LARGE HAIL SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA PER DECENT CAPES IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FURTHER WEST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE CAPE DECREASES QUICKLY...SO
ONLY A GENERAL THREAT FOR STORMS EXISTS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 80S IN THE NORTH AND EAST...WHERE BL MOISTURE IS
GREATEST...TO AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE DRIER BL CONDS
EXIST. FOR TONIGHT...THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE LATEST NAM SOLN...REGENERATES
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT INVOF THE NOSE OF AN
H85 LLJET AND WILL INCLUDE THIS FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 183. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE
WEST TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN THE EAST. THESE WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN GUIDANCE...TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

COOLER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY. LINGERING
POST FRONTAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY OVER
EASTERN ZONES. BY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WELL TO THE EAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S...POSSIBLY MID 80S IN
FAR SW NEB. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL HELP TO RADIATE
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES AROUND AN ONTARIO LOW
FOR TUESDAY. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND EVEN SOME
SHOWERS. THE ADDED CLOUDS WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND FOR TEMPS THE LAST 3
RUNS...ALTHOUGH DID NOT DROP AS FAR AS LATEST GUIDANCE CAME IN
WITH. IF SKIES BECOME CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...EVEN WITH AN EARLY JULY HIGH SUN ANGLE...TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS AND AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S WITH DEW PTS AROUND 60.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST IS DRY FOR NOW
WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWER TO RETURN.

LL JET THURSDAY WILL HELP TO INCREASE MID TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER
INCLUSION ON THE NOSE OF THE JET. BETTER SHOWERS ARRIVES FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL CAUSE NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING SE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS
THE TREND FROM JUNE CONTINUES INTO JULY...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
RISE...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SEASONAL
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...CIGS AON 3000 FT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE LIFTING BY 16Z. THERE AFTER...EXPECT SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS RANGING FROM 15000 TO 25000 FT AGL. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND 12000 FT AGL WILL
LIFT TO 25000 FT AGL BY MID MORNING. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDINESS AON 7000 FT AGL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. WITH SUNDOWN...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS RANGING FROM 12000
TO 25000 FT AGL. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
THIS EVENING AT BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. WITH SPARSE
COVERAGE EXPECTED...WILL FORGO MENTION OF TSRAS IN THE 12Z TAF
ISSUANCE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 541 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND LONGWAVE RIDGING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND THEN NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 75KTS
NEAR 34000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE
LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN COLORADO. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS...MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES REGION LATER TODAY. A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TODAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW OVER OUR AREA WHICH SHOULD INCREASE INTENSITY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THIS LOW MAY BEGIN TO MAKE A PUSH EAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW DOES THE SAME. AS A RESULT...THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR WEST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE SAME
POSITION TODAY INTO MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE
PERHAPS SNEAKING INTO OUR FAR WEST/NORTHWESTERN CWA TOWARDS
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE RESULTANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD
ACROSS OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS OUR FAR
WEST/NORTHWEST WHICH COULD TURN MORE NORTHERLY TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY
IF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE CAN MOVE AS FAR EAST AS CURRENTLY INDICATED
BY GUIDANCE.

FOR THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS ALONG THE AXIS OF A ~40KT
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
ALTHOUGH OFF BY A FEW HOURS...SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE HRRR
HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTION AND SUGGESTS IT WILL
PROPAGATE NORTHEAST SOME LATER THIS MORNING AND IMPACT SEVERAL OF
OUR KANSAS COUNTIES. THE HRRR...4KM WRF-NMM...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE 1KM WRF-NMM...ALSO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE REALIZED OVER WESTERN OR CENTRAL NEBRASKA
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS SHIFTS
NORTHEAST MORE INTO OUR AREA. QPF FIELDS FROM VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SEEM OVERDONE...BUT MANY OF THEM ALSO
INDICATE ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING...WITH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 0.25" ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA 12-18Z TODAY. FAR TOO MANY INDICATIONS OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO IGNORE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AS TO WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY BE REALIZED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
UNTIL 15Z. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS WILL
DECREASE IN INTENSITY POST SUNRISE AND AS A RESULT...CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH AS WELL. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA 15-21Z. THAT BEING SAID...THIS WILL ALL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THIS MORNING...WITH AN INCREASE IN
POPS LIKELY NEEDED IF/WHEN CONVECTION IS REALIZED OVER THE
AREA...AND A TEMPORAL INCREASE IN POPS PAST 15Z POSSIBLY NEEDED IF
CONVECTION MANAGES TO LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SUGGEST ANY MORNING
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA WILL LIKELY BE ROOTED TO AROUND 700MB AND
LIKELY ONLY HAVE ~500J/KG OF POTENTIAL ENERGY TO WORK WITH. GIVEN
THIS...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITH MORNING
CONVECTION.

ONCE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS DIMINISHES LASTER THIS
MORNING...THERE REALLY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SUBSTANTIAL
FORCING MECHANISMS ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE ENHANCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONVERGENCE
AND LIFT ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...BUT
AGAIN THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF OUR CWA UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE ON MONDAY. ALSO...THERE COULD BE A SUBTLE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION TRAVELING WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW WHICH
COULD PROVIDE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED OMEGA OVER THE AREA...BUT AGAIN
GUIDANCE DOES NOT PROVIDE ANY SUBSTANTIAL SIGNAL OF THIS
OCCURRING. FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS DO SUGGEST HOWEVER...IF FULL DIABATIC HEATING IS
ACHIEVED TODAY...THAT NEARLY ALL CIN COULD BE ERASED BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE
REACHED...PRIMARILY THROUGH LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. FARTHER
WEST...THESE SAME FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WARMER
TEMPERATURE READINGS NEAR 700MB AND RESULTANT HIGHER CIN VALUES
WILL MAKE CONVECTIVE INITIATION MORE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE. AS
ALREADY MENTIONED HOWEVER...FULL DIABATIC HEATING WOULD LIKELY
NEED TO BE ACHIEVED TO MEET CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE READINGS
FARTHER EAST...AND THERE IS A CHANCE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
FROM MORNING CONVECTION COULD PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO REACHING
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE READINGS. ITS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 4KM WRF-NMM SHOWS NOTHING OVER OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT BEING SAID...QPF FIELDS FROM
MULTIPLE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO SUGGEST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN CWA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS ACROSS THE
CWA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DID NOT GO ANY
HIGHER THAN A ~20% POP FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CIN VALUES...BUT FARTHER EAST WHERE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE
ACHIEVED...WENT AHEAD WITH 30-40% POPS ACROSS THE AREA. A COUPLE
IMPORTANT NOTES...THESE POPS WILL PROVE TO BE WELL OVERDONE IF
MORNING CONVECTION PROVIDES TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPTIATION. BUT...IF SO MUCH AS ONE STORM CAN FIRE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTANT OUTFLOW COULD RESULT IN MULTIPLE
STORMS INITIATING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING THUS RESULTING
IN A POP FORECAST WHICH IS UNDERDONE. UNFORTUNATELY IT IS UNLIKELY
WELL KNOW THE ANSWER UNTIL STORMS DO (OR DO NOT) INITIATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT CLOSE EVALUATION OF THE
SITUATION WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
HIGH VOLATILITY OF THE TROPOSPHERE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENHANCED
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL HELP PROMOTE 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES
OF 2000-4000J/KG ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ENERGY EXISTING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
40-50KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN EXISTENCE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DEEP
CONVECTION THAT IS REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 0-1KM SRH
VALUES DO NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE PER THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS...BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF IF/WHEN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
INTRODUCED ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THIS...WILL ALSO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POST-SUNSET TONIGHT
AS DIABATIC HEATING IS LOST. THAT BEING SAID...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
40-45KT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND NOSE INTO OUR
AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THEN POSSIBLE HEADING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH
20-40% POPS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.
FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SUGGEST ANY CONVECTION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE ROOTED TO AROUND
800MB AND HAVE ~2000J/KG OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.
GIVEN THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE A MENTION OF LARGE HAIL IN
THE HWO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

ALOFT: A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE OFFING NEXT WEEK
AND THIS MEANS A BREAK FROM A DRENCHING JUNE THAT HAS PUT A
SIGNIFICANT DENT IN THE DROUGHT OVER S-CNTRL NEB. JUNE HAS BEEN A
VERY WET MONTH DUE TO PERSISTENT BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN
USA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC INFO STATEMENT /PNS/ POSTED ON
OUR WEBSITE FOR WHERE GRI/HSI RANK FOR THE WETTEST JUNE`S ON
RECORD. GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MULTI-DAY 500 MB MEANS FOR DAYS 1-5
AND THEN 6-10 INDICATE A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER WRN N
AMERICA...FORCING LONGWAVE AMPLIFICATION. THE MEAN TROF WILL
PROGRESS E INTO THE CNTRL USA THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE ERN USA BY DAY 6. WHILE HIGH TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN HOT...A
COOLDOWN IS SLATED TUE-THU WITH WED BEING THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
FCST WITH HIGHS MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL /AT LEAST 10F/. BY NEXT
WEEKEND A SPELL OF SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL ARRIVE.

AS FOR THE SHORTWAVES...THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES IS ESSENTIALLY TRAPPED UNTIL AMPLIFICATION
BEGINS. THIS LOW WILL MAKE A LOOP TODAY-MON AND THEN OPEN UP AND
HEAD E TUE AS THE WRN RIDGE BUILDS. A TRAILING TROF WILL SLIP THRU
THE CNTRL PLAINS TUE. NW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN ITS WAKE WED-
THU WITH RISING HEIGHTS AS THE RIDGE MOVES E. A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
IS THEN FCST TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

SURFACE: THE STALLED FRONT THAT CURRENTLY BISECTS NEB FROM SW-NE
WILL MOVE LITTLE THRU DAYBREAK MON. IT WILL BECOME MOBILE THOUGH
MON AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND IT SHOULD BE JUST S AND E OF THE
FCST AREA BY SUNSET. A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU
TUE AS CANADIAN HIGH PRES SURGES S INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
WED. AS IT HEADS INTO THE ERN USA THU-FRI...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH A NEW LEE-SIDE TROF. THIS SETUP WILL CONT INTO SAT.

A 40-30-30 BLEND OF THE 12Z/18Z/00Z CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR WIND GUSTS...DEWPOINTS AND QPF...AND HIGH
TEMPS TUE- THU. CONSENSUS OF 00Z MOS WAS USED FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS/DIR.

HAZARDS: TSTMS WILL BE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL NEB MON
MORNING. MUCAPE IS FCST AS HIGH AS 4000 J/KG WITH 40-50 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE STORMS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE ELEVATED. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR DO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE HAIL. THE REST OF THE WEEK...NOTHING UNTIL POSSIBLE TSTM
ACTIVITY RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE FRI NIGHT-SAT.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: SREF QPF PROBABILITIES OFFER HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT AN MCS
WILL BE ON-GOING TO START THE DAY OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN NEB.
THIS MCS WILL DEPART TO THE E. AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY THE COLD POOL
SHOULD SEE A PRETTY NICE DAY /S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES/. RESIDUAL
CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE MCS COULD SPOIL MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE
TRI-CITIES N AND E. BREEZY N WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUE: SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT MON NIGHT. WHILE MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND S OF I-70...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE SOME ANVIL RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER COULD CREEP
INTO OUR N-CNTRL KS COUNTIES. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS COULD
SPREAD SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AS FAR N AS HWY 6 DURING THE DAY
TUE.

THE UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW DIURNAL SHWRS N
OF I-80. BREEZY OVER S-CNTRL NEB.

WED: SUNNY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL BUT WONDERFULLY REFRESHING. THIS
WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO TURN OFF THE A/C AND LET SOME FRESH AIR
INSIDE. 850 MB TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY FCST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL ON THE SREF/GFS ENSEMBLES. THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE
GEM OFFER HIGHS 65-75F. THE 00Z RUNS OF GEM AND GFS OFFER 70F FOR
A HIGH AT GRI. IF THAT OCCURS...WED WOULD BE ONE OF THE TOP 5
COOLEST JULY 2ND`S ON RECORD. THE LAST 3 CYCLES OF MEX MOS HAS
DROPPED HIGHS AT GRI FROM 83 TO 78 TO 73. COORDINATED WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS.

WE MAY NEED TO ADD A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF SHWR IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER S-CNTRL NEB. THE 12Z/00Z EC STILL HAVE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR HEALTHY CU AND POTENTIAL SHWR ACTIVITY.

THU: THE TEMP RECOVERY BEGINS...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL. STILL A VERY NICE DAY. RETURN FLOW BEGINS ADVECTING
THE POOL OF RICH MOISTURE BACK N IN ADVANCE OF THE LEE TROF.

FRI: BREEZY AND WARMER WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL /85-90F/.

FRI NIGHT-SAT: WE START FLIRTING WITH NIGHTTIME TSTM INITIATION
AND MCS ACTIVITY. SAT IS LOOKING HOT AWAY FROM ANY TSTM COOL POOLS
AND CLOUD DEBRIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNTIL 14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE
EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS EXPECTED.
UNFORTUNATELY THE CEILING HAS DROPPED MUCH LOWER THAN GUIDANCE WAS
FORECASTING EARLIER THIS MORNING. AN IFR CEILING...GENERALLY
BETWEEN 600 AND 900FT AGL...IS BEING OBSERVED GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM EAR TO HJH. THIS STRATUS IS ADVANCING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND IT NOW APPEARS LIKELY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED AT GRI FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. INCREASING DIABATIC
HEATING AND A RESULTANT INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER HEIGHT AND
MIXING POST-SUNRISE SHOULD HELP THE STRATUS LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY
14Z. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MORNINGS STRATUS...WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE TAF UNTIL 14Z.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THAT BEING SAID...THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH
ACTIVITY BEING REALIZED AT GRI IS TOO LOW FOR INSERTION INTO THE
TAF AT THIS TIME. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST TODAY...GENERALLY SUSTAINED AT 09-12KTS. A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND FIELD IS THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...BRYANT




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 1033 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR FOR NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MID WEEK. WITH THE INCREASING WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PA AS OF 14Z. A FEW CUMULUS WERE ALREADY
BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE SCRANTON WILKES BARRE AREAS TO BRADFORD
COUNTY. WITH CONTINUED INSOLATION I EXPECT A SCT-BKN CU FIELD TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF C NY AND NE PA AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING FROM 14C TO 16C AND SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S F WHICH TRANSLATES TO 16-18C. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HINTS
THAT A SHORT WAVE WAS RIDING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH WAS OVR NY/PA AT THIS TIME. A CIRRUS LAYER FROM CNTRL
PA TO SRN ONT CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF THIS WAVE ALONG WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWG DARKENING OVER LAKE HURON AND ERN LWR MI.
INDEED THERE WERE A FEW ISLD SHRA OVER WRN AND SRN PA AT THIS
TIME. THE RAP AND OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS ALONG WITH THE LARGER
SCALE SYNOPTIC MODELS TRACK THIS SHRT WAVE UP TO SRN QUEBEC BY 00Z
AND AS A RESULT THE UPPER LVL RDG AXIS MOVES A LITTLE EASTWARD
REACHING A BTV-LNS LINE ROUGHLY BY THIS EVE.

ONE CONSEQUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RDG OVHD MUCH OF THE DAY IS THAT
IT IS SUPPORTING A SFC ANTICYCLONE OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH IS
CONTINUING TO LEAD TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR THRU NY AND PA. THE
LL SRLY WINDS ARE A BIT STRGR WEST OF THE APPLCNS INTO WRN NY AND
HENCE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS AREA SEES THE HIGHEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE THIS PM. IN ADDTN...THIS AREA IS A LITTLE COOLER ALOFT BEING
A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER RDG AXIS THIS PM. HENCE
CONCUR WITH PREV SHIFT AND SURROUNDING OFFICES THAT THE FINGER
LAKES REGION TO NC NY IN THE NWS BGM FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE THE
BEST SHOT FOR POP UP HIT AND MISS SHRA AND TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVE AND
HAVE KEPT POPS PRETTY MUCH AS IS WITH SLIGHTLY TIMING ADJUSTMENTS.

WINDS ARE WEAK WITH THE STRGEST WINDS APPRCHING 20 KNOTS IN THE
LL/S. THE AMS WAS ALSO PRETTY DRY THIS PM SO I DON/T SEE A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT TODAY. MODEL CAPES VARY RANGING FROM OVER 1000 J/KG ON
THE NAM TO LESS THAN A 100 J/KG ON THE GFS. THE SFC DEWPOINTS LOOK
TOO HIGH ON THE NAM AND TOO LOW ON THE GFS. SO WE SHUD SEE CAPES
ARND 500 J/KG OR BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK SHEAR
SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE UPR LVL RDG AND LIKELY WILL SUPPORT A FEW SHRA MAINLY ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES TO NC NY LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT MADE NO SIG
CHANGES TO PREV FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500 AM UPDATE...
HOT AND HUMID, ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE THE RULE DURING THIS PERIOD. AS
OF NOW IT APPEARS WE WILL HAVE TO RELY ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
FOR ANY CONVECTION MONDAY. THIS MAY KEEP OUR CONVECTION FAIRLY
CONFINED TO THE LAKE PLAIN, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STAYING DRY. A
BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL COME LATE TUESDAY, AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. AS THE DAY SHIFT
POINTED OUT FROM SATURDAY, HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE LATE
TUESDAY WITH CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG, IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR, AND PWATS (A MEASURE OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS IN THE
ATMOSPHERE) ABOVE 1.7 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
THREAT IN THE HWO, AND AFTER TALKING TO THE LONG TERM FORECASTER
WILL EXTEND THREAT THROUGH THURSDAY. SEE BELOW FOR THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AND MODEL TRENDS. WITH
ANOTHER GFS-ECMWF RUN...IT IS BECOMING CLEARER THAT THE FINAL COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY /MENTIONED BELOW/ WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACCORDINGLY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL TEMPORARILY DIP WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND UPPER
WAVE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...ONLY TO INCREASE TO BACK IN EXCESS OF
1.5 INCHES LATE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY POOLED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THE RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WATER
HAZARDS NOTED BELOW...BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MAY INCREASE SHEAR THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THIS COULD PROMOTE ORGANIZED STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROF PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
PERIODIC MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE LIKELY TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY. MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCTION...AND WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP THIS IDEA IN MIND FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED WATER RELATED HAZARDS NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST A FINAL PUSH OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WITH
RATHER MODEST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR FRIDAY AND NEXT
WEEKEND. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 28/00Z ECMWF LURKING A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY NEXT SATURDAY...THE MODEL
CONSENSUS SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW THE WPC
FORECASTS. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
SCT-BKN DECK AROUND 10 KFT...LEFTOVERS OF WHAT USED TO BE SCT
SHRA FARTHER WEST...WAS ENOUGH ALONG WITH 20 KFT WINDS WITHIN THE
LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET AGL TO GREATLY LIMIT VALLEY FOG
FORMATION AT KELM EARLY THIS MORNING /ONLY BRIEFLY GOT TO MVFR
VIS/. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SHIFTING TO THE COAST YET STILL DOMINANT
OF OUR WEATHER. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND IT HOWEVER WILL ALLOW MORE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO BEGIN APPROACHING WITH TIME. FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD HOWEVER...VERY LIMITED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA AT BEST THIS
AFTERNOON TO EVENING...AND MAINLY WEST OF KELM-KITH-KSYR AND THUS
NOT IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. ONLY EXPECTING SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS AT
5-6 KFT LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON...AND THICKENING HIGH
CLOUDS 15-25 KFT TONIGHT...LOWERING FURTHER TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME SSE/SSW 5-10 KTS TODAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

MON THROUGH WED...MAINLY VFR BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT
SHRA/TSRA. POSSIBILITY OF VALLEY FOG AT KELM EACH OVERNIGHT.

THU...RESTRICTIONS FROM RA/TSRA AS MOIST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/HEDEN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 956 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS... A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS GEORGIA AND FLORIDA WILL
LINGER SOUTH OF OUR AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MONDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT AND OFF THE GEORGIA COAST...WILL MEANDER
JUST OFFSHORE AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM SUNDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE AND UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WITH THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXES
EITHER RIGHT OVER OR JUST WEST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW NORMAL OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH VALUES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE
NORMAL VALUE OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AREA...AND WEST ALSO NEAR A LOCAL 850MB THETA-E
RIDGE A FEW SHOWERS...WEAKENING AS THEY MOVED EAST...EXISTED. THE
LATEST RAP SHOWS THE CONFIGURATION OF 850MB THETA-E...PRECIPITABLE
WATER...AND K INDICES VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...MAKING ANY CHANCE OF RAIN...LOW AS IT MAY BE...ALONG THE
FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. RAP
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY OVERALL AND DRY FROM 850MB AND BELOW
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE
IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE TRIAD. FOR THE NEAR-TERM UPDATE ADDED A NARROW
WINDOW OF HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS NOON AND BEFORE OVER WESTERN
FORSYTH COUNTY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...OTHERWISE MAINTAINED THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT TO RAISE MAXES A DEGREE OR TWO IN MUCH OF
THE COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO EXPECTED DRY AIR AND GOOD SUN...AND LOWER
MAXES ABOUT A DEGREE TOWARD KINT. THE HRRR WRF SUGGESTS SOME MIXING
OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER AND JUST WEST OF THE YADKIN RIVER WHILE
THE RAP IS MORE BULLISH WITH THESE CLOUDS...ALBEIT STRUGGLING TO
MOVE EAST. ANY DEEP CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY...WITH INCREASING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS WELL AND EXPECT ANY
DEVELOPING CONVECTION TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND CONFINED TO THE
WEST. LOWS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US.  A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE.  RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITHOUT A BETTER FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AND MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.  850MB TEMPS PEAK
BETWEEN 19 TO 20C ON WEDNESDAY WITH THICKNESSES NEAR 1430M...WHICH
SUGGESTS MID 90S WITH SOME UPPER 90S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN BY THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A POSSIBLE (SUB)TROPICAL
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  MODELS ARE IS FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT FALLING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  THE COASTAL
LOW IS FORECAST TO MEANDER UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK...LIKELY DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.  CYCLONE PHASE
FORECAST DIAGRAMS SHOW THE LOW SLOWLY BECOMING A WARM CORE
SYSTEM...AND THE NHC CURRENTLY GIVES A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT.  MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE...BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LAST COUPLE OF ECMWF RUNS
HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON BRINGING A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LOW NORTH
ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
POINT... SO WILL MAINTAIN MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A TREND
TOWARD HIGHER CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND HIGHS DROPPING
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM SUNDAY...

24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST...ADVECTING COOL AND DRY AIR INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL
NC. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS...VEERING AROUND
TO SOUTHEASTERLY LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD: WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT...TYPICAL DIURNAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK (ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFT/EVE STORMS). THE
HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL NC AND A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BLAES/DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...KC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 1022 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ ANCHORED
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING. THIS PROLIFIC RAIN PRODUCING
MCS CONTINUES TO BE FED BY A NOCTURNAL 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
STREAK...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG... AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. LATEST WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE/88D VWP TRENDS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY BE
STARTING TO WEAKEN WITH CLOUD TOPS SLOWLY WARMING. SHORT TERM
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SUGGEST THE MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THE LATEST 12Z WRF AND PERHAPS THE 06Z GFS
INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS ANOTHER MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL WAIT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z
MODEL GUIDANCE TO ARRIVE BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY POTENTIAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE
BY 7 PM THIS EVENING.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

.FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH....

TODAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS MOVING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. EARLIER CONVECTION HAS SET UP AN AREA OF RAIN COOLED AIR
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH RESULTING IN A SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN
ARKANSAS TO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. MEANWHILE A SWLY 35 KT LLJ IS
ADVECTING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THAT BOUNDARY GENERATING
NUMEROUS ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS...MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. THE 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP H20 VALUE OF 2.03
INCHES SO RAINFALL RATES ARE QUITE HEAVY WITH 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
COMMON. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN ANCHORED FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS AND CONTINUES TO BACK BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS. AS A RESULT DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE THIS
MORNING...THOUGH CONTINUED THE WATCH THROUGH 00Z TO COVER ANY
AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT AS DEPICTED IN THE 05Z HRRR. BESIDES THE
FLOODING THREAT A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. OPTED FOR THE COOLER MET TEMPS TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIP. PRECIP CHANCES WILL START TAILING OFF FROM THE WEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INTO THE MIDSOUTH.

TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEAR THE TN RIVER FOLLOWED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST AND CLEARING SKIES. LOWS WILL BE MILD...LOWER TO MID 70S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND WARM AIR SURGES
INTO THE REGION. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS 925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND
26C BOTH DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
THOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT ALOFT THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
QUITE HUMID WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S RESULTING IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY....AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS KICKS
IT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM ON WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S SOUTH...COOLER ALONG THE MO/KY
BORDER. BY THURSDAY COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN
PUSHING TO THE SOUTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS PERIOD...INCLUDING
INDEPENDENCE DAY...LOOKS PRETTY SPECTACULAR ATTM. OF COURSE THAT
HAS BEEN SAID A LOT ABOUT BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS 6-7 DAYS OUT. THE
00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO THAT HELPS BOLSTER THE CASE
WHICH POINTS TOWARD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND DRY
N/NE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT
MEM...JBR...AND MKL...WITH MVFR AND IFR CIGS/VIS. STORM COMPLEX IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEFORE NOON WITH SITES BECOMING
PREDOMINATELY VFR. CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
COVERAGE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY EARLY
EVENING AS DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR LATE
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG FORMING AT MKL AND TUP. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-8 KTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL INCREASE TO
8-16 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT MEM AND JBR. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
TO 5-10 KTS DEPENDING ON SITE BY SUNSET.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PRENTISS-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-
     TUNICA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 1021 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ ANCHORED
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING. THIS PROLIFIC RAIN PRODUCING
MCS CONTINUES TO BE FED BY A NOCTURNAL 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
STREAK...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG... AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. LATEST WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE/88D VWP TRENDS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY BE
STARTING TO WEAKEN WITH CLOUD TOPS SLOWLY WARMING. SHORT TERM
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SUGGEST THE MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THE LATEST 12Z WRF AND PERHAPS THE 06Z GFS
INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS ANOTHER MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THIS COULD RESULT POTENTIALLY RESULT IN
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL WAIT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z
MODEL GUIDANCE TO ARRIVE BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY POTENTIAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE
BY 7 PM THIS EVENING.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

.FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH....

TODAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS MOVING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. EARLIER CONVECTION HAS SET UP AN AREA OF RAIN COOLED AIR
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH RESULTING IN A SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN
ARKANSAS TO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. MEANWHILE A SWLY 35 KT LLJ IS
ADVECTING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THAT BOUNDARY GENERATING
NUMEROUS ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS...MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. THE 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP H20 VALUE OF 2.03
INCHES SO RAINFALL RATES ARE QUITE HEAVY WITH 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
COMMON. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN ANCHORED FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS AND CONTINUES TO BACK BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS. AS A RESULT DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE THIS
MORNING...THOUGH CONTINUED THE WATCH THROUGH 00Z TO COVER ANY
AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT AS DEPICTED IN THE 05Z HRRR. BESIDES THE
FLOODING THREAT A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. OPTED FOR THE COOLER MET TEMPS TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIP. PRECIP CHANCES WILL START TAILING OFF FROM THE WEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INTO THE MIDSOUTH.

TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEAR THE TN RIVER FOLLOWED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST AND CLEARING SKIES. LOWS WILL BE MILD...LOWER TO MID 70S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND WARM AIR SURGES
INTO THE REGION. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS 925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND
26C BOTH DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
THOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT ALOFT THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
QUITE HUMID WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S RESULTING IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY....AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS KICKS
IT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM ON WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S SOUTH...COOLER ALONG THE MO/KY
BORDER. BY THURSDAY COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN
PUSHING TO THE SOUTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS PERIOD...INCLUDING
INDEPENDENCE DAY...LOOKS PRETTY SPECTACULAR ATTM. OF COURSE THAT
HAS BEEN SAID A LOT ABOUT BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS 6-7 DAYS OUT. THE
00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO THAT HELPS BOLSTER THE CASE
WHICH POINTS TOWARD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND DRY
N/NE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AT
MEM...JBR...AND MKL...WITH MVFR AND IFR CIGS/VIS. STORM COMPLEX IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEFORE NOON WITH SITES BECOMING
PREDOMINATELY VFR. CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
COVERAGE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY EARLY
EVENING AS DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR LATE
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG FORMING AT MKL AND TUP. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-8 KTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL INCREASE TO
8-16 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT MEM AND JBR. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF
TO 5-10 KTS DEPENDING ON SITE BY SUNSET.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PRENTISS-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-
     TUNICA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MORRISTOWN TN

 1011 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ONGOING OVER MIDDLE
TN...MOVING NE. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST RAP AND
HRRR RUNS...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE BETTER THAN
SCATTERED. THUS WILL RAISE POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST. WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.7 AND TALL SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE
COMMON...WITH LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE NUDGED DOWN SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED
PRECIP AND CLOUDS. THE CONVECTIVELY- INDUCED VORT MAX NOW OVER WEST
TN IS SHOWN BY THE RAP AND NAM TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT...AND
WILL ALSO RAISE POPS A BIT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 1010 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

CURRENTLY WATCHING A SLOWLY DYING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING EAST AT 40-50MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST IA. SO FAR...IT HAS BEEN
WELL-BEHAVED WITH JUST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PLAN ON THIS
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NOON HOUR...WITH MINIMAL SEVERE
THREAT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS WITH A 300MB JET MAX PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE OF ID INTO SOUTHWEST MT. RAP HAS THE NOSE OF THIS JET
MAX REACHING OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AIDING IN MID-UPPER LEVEL
LIFT. RAP IS ALSO SHOWING 0-1KM MLCAPE INCREASING INTO THE
1200-2500J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH 30-40KT IN THE 0-3KM LAYER. BUKFIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIS INSTABILITY MORE TIED TO MID-LEVEL
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH STORM BASES FAIRLY ELEVATED ABOVE
800MB. THEREFORE...BELIEVE SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH VERY MINIMAL
TORNADO THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DESPITE HAVING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST
EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN A REGION WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS REBOUNDING FROM THE SOUTH. 29.00Z GUIDANCE
STILL IS CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW RIDING UP
TOWARD A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY/DRY LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO NOSE UP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THAT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR TAKE
THE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BUT WEAKEN
IT AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST. WHILE 0-3KM MUCAPE APPEARS TO BE ON
THE WEAK SIDE AT 500-1000 J/KG...0-6KM SHEAR IS DECENT AT 30-40KTS
AND INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING...SO SOME ISOLATED HAILERS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY IS SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON
HOW LONG THE ENVIRONMENT CAN REMAIN CLEAR OF THE MORNING
CONVECTION GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS SINCE THAT WILL LIMIT
THE INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE 29.00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TOWARD DAYBREAK
AND TAKING IT EAST THROUGH IOWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE ACTUALLY DEVELOPED AN MCV OFF OF
THIS CONVECTION AND TAKEN IT UP THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHOULD THIS FEATURE FORM...IT WOULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD LIKELY LESSEN
THE SEVERE THREAT SINCE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BUILD MUCH
AND THE MID LEVEL JET STREAK MAY NOT BE IN YET. OTHERWISE...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL DRY LINE/BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE SURFACE
WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS IOWA TODAY. MOST
29.00Z GUIDANCE KEEP THIS FEATURE TO THE SOUTH BECAUSE OF THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION....SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
FEATURE AND SEE IF IT DOES MAKE IT FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

IF THIS MCV DOES NOT COME THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME HIGHLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
OF 2000-3000 J/KG INTO AT LEAST NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN...POSSIBLY EVEN FURTHER NORTH. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS A 500MB JET STREAK
ENTERS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS SHEAR
APPEARS TO BE SPEED SHEAR WITH SURFACE WINDS LIKELY BEING OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST IN THE MOIST SECTOR AND STAYING SOUTHWEST TO WEST
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. IF THE ENVIRONMENT IS ABLE TO
DESTABILIZE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL
OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST IOWA...POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...IN THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH INITIAL STORM MODE POSSIBLY BEING
SUPERCELLULAR BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE LINEAR MODE AS MOST
OF THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE IN THE LOWEST 3KM. THE NSSL WRF-ARW/NMM
SOLUTIONS ARE SOME OF THE MORE OMINOUS ONES WITH PUSHING THE EARLY
DAY CONVECTION OUT BY AFTERNOON AND THEN BACKING SURFACE WINDS
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WARM FRONT MAKING IT INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA. IF THESE SURFACE WINDS CAN BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT ALL...IT WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR TORNADOES AS THE 0-1KM SHEAR/HELICITY INCREASES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO...WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS ONE WOULD LIKE
AT THIS POINT...AM STILL THINKING THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY FROM 1PM TO 10PM WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE HAZARDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH. TIMING
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
LOCALLY AS CONVECTION MAY QUICKLY DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS WITH THERE NOT BEING MUCH OF A CAP IN PLACE. WITH THE
DEEP...WIDESPREAD FORCING COMING IN TO GO ALONG WITH A FAT CAPE
PROFILE AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING EVERYWHERE...WHICH MAY MAKE IT HARD FOR
STORMS TO START OUT AS SUPERCELLULAR AND INSTEAD START OUT
MULTICELLULAR/SQUALL LINE-ISH INSTEAD. SOME OF THE DETAILS WILL
STILL HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT AFTER THE CONVECTION PASSES
TODAY...BUT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY IN THE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF HIGH END
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

BEYOND THIS...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE OVER AS THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPS
DOWN FROM CANADA. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AS THIS
TROUGH DROPS DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE THROUGH KRST BETWEEN 29.13Z AND 29.15Z...AND KRST
BETWEEN 29.1430Z AND 29.1630Z. MESO MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH KRST BETWEEN 29.19Z
AND 29.23Z AND KLSE BETWEEN 29.20Z AND 29.24Z. THERE MAY BE SOME
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE IFR/MVFR RANGE DURING
THESE THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD...THE FORECAST IS
VERY UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE MESO MODELS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

MOST RAINFALL REPORTS FROM ACROSS THE REGION WERE IN THE HALF INCH
TO AN INCH RANGE...THOUGH THERE WERE SOME LOCAL 2-3" REPORTS THAT
CAME IN FROM THE STORMS LAST NIGHT. WHILE MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD STAY PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH
THAT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED ISSUES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. RIVERS WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI WHERE
MANY SITES ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAS
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 648 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DESPITE HAVING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST
EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN A REGION WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS REBOUNDING FROM THE SOUTH. 29.00Z GUIDANCE
STILL IS CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW RIDING UP
TOWARD A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY/DRY LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO NOSE UP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THAT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR TAKE
THE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BUT WEAKEN
IT AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST. WHILE 0-3KM MUCAPE APPEARS TO BE ON
THE WEAK SIDE AT 500-1000 J/KG...0-6KM SHEAR IS DECENT AT 30-40KTS
AND INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING...SO SOME ISOLATED HAILERS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY IS SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON
HOW LONG THE ENVIRONMENT CAN REMAIN CLEAR OF THE MORNING
CONVECTION GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS SINCE THAT WILL LIMIT
THE INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE 29.00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TOWARD DAYBREAK
AND TAKING IT EAST THROUGH IOWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE ACTUALLY DEVELOPED AN MCV OFF OF
THIS CONVECTION AND TAKEN IT UP THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHOULD THIS FEATURE FORM...IT WOULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD LIKELY LESSEN
THE SEVERE THREAT SINCE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BUILD MUCH
AND THE MID LEVEL JET STREAK MAY NOT BE IN YET. OTHERWISE...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL DRY LINE/BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE SURFACE
WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS IOWA TODAY. MOST
29.00Z GUIDANCE KEEP THIS FEATURE TO THE SOUTH BECAUSE OF THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION....SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
FEATURE AND SEE IF IT DOES MAKE IT FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

IF THIS MCV DOES NOT COME THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME HIGHLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
OF 2000-3000 J/KG INTO AT LEAST NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN...POSSIBLY EVEN FURTHER NORTH. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS A 500MB JET STREAK
ENTERS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS SHEAR
APPEARS TO BE SPEED SHEAR WITH SURFACE WINDS LIKELY BEING OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST IN THE MOIST SECTOR AND STAYING SOUTHWEST TO WEST
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. IF THE ENVIRONMENT IS ABLE TO
DESTABILIZE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL
OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST IOWA...POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...IN THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH INITIAL STORM MODE POSSIBLY BEING
SUPERCELLULAR BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE LINEAR MODE AS MOST
OF THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE IN THE LOWEST 3KM. THE NSSL WRF-ARW/NMM
SOLUTIONS ARE SOME OF THE MORE OMINOUS ONES WITH PUSHING THE EARLY
DAY CONVECTION OUT BY AFTERNOON AND THEN BACKING SURFACE WINDS
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WARM FRONT MAKING IT INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA. IF THESE SURFACE WINDS CAN BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT ALL...IT WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR TORNADOES AS THE 0-1KM SHEAR/HELICITY INCREASES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO...WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS ONE WOULD LIKE
AT THIS POINT...AM STILL THINKING THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY FROM 1PM TO 10PM WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE HAZARDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH. TIMING
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
LOCALLY AS CONVECTION MAY QUICKLY DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS WITH THERE NOT BEING MUCH OF A CAP IN PLACE. WITH THE
DEEP...WIDESPREAD FORCING COMING IN TO GO ALONG WITH A FAT CAPE
PROFILE AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING EVERYWHERE...WHICH MAY MAKE IT HARD FOR
STORMS TO START OUT AS SUPERCELLULAR AND INSTEAD START OUT
MULTICELLULAR/SQUALL LINE-ISH INSTEAD. SOME OF THE DETAILS WILL
STILL HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT AFTER THE CONVECTION PASSES
TODAY...BUT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY IN THE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF HIGH END
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

BEYOND THIS...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE OVER AS THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPS
DOWN FROM CANADA. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AS THIS
TROUGH DROPS DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE THROUGH KRST BETWEEN 29.13Z AND 29.15Z...AND KRST
BETWEEN 29.1430Z AND 29.1630Z. MESO MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH KRST BETWEEN 29.19Z
AND 29.23Z AND KLSE BETWEEN 29.20Z AND 29.24Z. THERE MAY BE SOME
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE IFR/MVFR RANGE DURING
THESE THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD...THE FORECAST IS
VERY UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE MESO MODELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

MOST RAINFALL REPORTS FROM ACROSS THE REGION WERE IN THE HALF INCH
TO AN INCH RANGE...THOUGH THERE WERE SOME LOCAL 2-3" REPORTS THAT
CAME IN FROM THE STORMS LAST NIGHT. WHILE MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD STAY PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH
THAT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED ISSUES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. RIVERS WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI WHERE
MANY SITES ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

 335 PM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014

DRY WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW LVL
MOISTURE HAS SCOURED OUT OVER THE PLAINS WITH CAPES BLO 500 OVER
THE FAR ERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTN. HOWEVER DEEPER LOW LVL MOISTUE
MAY RETURN THIS EVENING WITH HIGHER CAPES DEVELOPING OVER
PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. THERE COULD BE A WK
CONVERGENCE ZONE AS WELL WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW STORMS THIS
EVENING SO WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS THRU MIDNIGHT.

ON MON WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS A WK COOL FNT
MOVES ACROSS NERN CO BY MIDDAY. THIS FNT WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR
AT THE LOWER LEVELS EXCEPT POSSIBLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
SRN FOOTHILLS. THUS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHC OF AFTN TSTMS CONFINED
TO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND SRN FOOTHILLS. ELSEWHERE WILL NOT MENTION
ANY TSTMS. HIGHS ON MON WILL BE A BIT COOLER OVER NERN CO HOWEVER
READINGS WILL STILL BE IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014

UPPER RIDGING IS GOING TO DOMINATE COLORADO WEATHER THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. INITIALLY COLORADO WILL BE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR
ON TUESDAY AS WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AT LOW LEVELS. SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN AND DEVELOP INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PRONE TO ROTATE OVER THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES...THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.
SHOWERS WILL TEND TO BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO WEAK STEERING WINDS
UNDER THE UPPER HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY AT LEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 335 PM MDT SUN JUN 29 2014

SO FAR WNW WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS HAVE NOT SPREAD OUT ACROSS WRN
AREAS OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR AS OF 20Z. RAP AND HRRR STILL
INDICATE A WNW WIND SHIFT BETWEEN 21Z AND 22Z WHILE THE HI RES WRF
NEVER SHIFTS THE WINDS TO THE WNW. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS THE HI
RES WRF MAY END UP BEING RIGHT. THIS EVENING WINDS SHOULD BECOME
DRAINAGE IN THE 04Z-06Z TIMEFRAME AND REMAIN SSW THRU 12Z MON.

ON MON A WK FNT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING NWLY BY
LATE MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN. AT THIS TIME NO
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 505 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
204 PM CDT

TONIGHT...
LINGERING STRATUS CLOUDS FINALLY BURNED OFF LATE THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTN. VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES SOME OF THE CU FIELD WAS BECOMING AGITATED AND TRYING TO
BUILD SOUTH OF I-80 THIS AFTN...WHICH WAS THE REGION WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE WAS AVAILABLE AS DEW POINTS LINGERED ARND 70 TO LOW 70S.
THE STRONGER WAVE WAS STILL WELL WEST OF THE CWFA INTO
CENTRAL/WESTERN IOWA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTN/EVE WILL RESIDE. FURTHER EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST
IN...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STEADILY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK WARM LAYER ALOFT...HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WAS EXPECTED. WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THIS AFTN...ALTHOUGH A FEW POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
LASALLE TO VALPARAISO COULD STILL TAG 90 THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE TEMPS
SHUD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPR 80S.

THE STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SHOW OR NO-SHOW IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTION. THEN IN WHAT CAPACITY WILL IT ARRIVE ACROSS A PORTION OF
OUR CWFA TONIGHT/EARLY MON. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST WE
ARE SITTING ON ABOUT 2K J/KG OF CAPE...UNFORTUNATELY A WARM LAYER
ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO A MINIMA THRU AT LEAST
23Z. UPSTREAM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE INHIBITION OVER
CENTRAL IA SHUD BEGIN TO DISSOLVE BY 20-21Z...AND EXPECT AN UPTICK
IN CONVECTIVE GROWTH THERE. LOCAL ARW8KM SOLUTION HAS A SIMILAR WARM
LAYER ALOFT...WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT AS A CAP AND COULD LINGER TO
ARND 00Z MON TO POSSIBLY 04Z.

UTILIZING THE BUNKER STORM MOTION...IT APPEARS THAT IF CONVECTION
CAN DEVELOP UPSTREAM IT WOULD SLIDE EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL CWFA
THEN TURN SOUTHEAST CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN CWFA. BUT THE QUESTION
REMAINS WILL CONVECTION BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO THE CWFA
TONIGHT...AND WITH THE STRENGTHENING PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT THIS
LOOKS TO BE CHALLENGING.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

MONDAY...
THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE DAY OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. THE TIMING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED IN
THE AFTN/EVE TIMEFRAME. THE DAY SHUD START OFF WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. PROFILES INDICATE STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES BY EARLY AFTN...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A SIZABLE PUSH
OF WARM AIR ALOFT THAT COULD KEEP THINGS CAPPED YET AGAIN THRU
21-22Z MON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE WAVE OVER IOWA ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF A MID-LVL TROUGH/VORT TO BE THE FOCAL POINT.
THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AFT
21Z...SO THE TIMING OF LATE AFTN/EVE FOR GREATEST CONVECTIVE GROWTH
AND COVERAGE REMAINS IN PLACE. STORM MOTION MON EVE LOOKS TO BE
PUSHING EAST THEN BEGIN TURNING SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME SPC HAS THE
ENTIRE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT RISK...WITH THE GREATEST HAZARDS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

TEMPS MON WILL HINGE UPON THE MORNING CLOUD COVERAGE AND HOW QUICKLY
THAT CAN ERODE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TEMPS SHUD PUSH INTO THE
MID/UPR 80S WITH DEW PTS IN THE LOW 70S. THE COMBINATION WILL CREATE
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID/UPR 90S.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DRY SLOT QUICKLY ARRIVES BEHIND THE VORT PASSAGE TUE...WHICH SHUD
ALLOW MUCH OF TUE TO BE DRY. LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH A MORE ROBUST MID-LVL TROUGH JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION WED. ANOTHER LOBE OF
VORTICITY IS PROGGED TO PIVOT OVERHEAD WED MORNING...AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHC FOR PRECIP. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY...IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE GENERAL SHOWERS. FLOW THEN TURNS
NORTHWESTERLY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWFA. TUE
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STILL TAG THE 80S...WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO WARM
BEYOND THE LOW/MID 70S WED/THUR. BROAD SFC RIDGE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS
IN WED NGT/THUR...WITH PLEASANT AND LESS HUMID CONDS DEVELOPING.

CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN MAY BE ADJUSTING FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST CONUS. IN CONCERT WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST...THERMAL
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THIS WILL LIKELY AID IN MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO POSSIBLY MID 80S. WHILE IT
LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE CWFA...IT IS POSSIBLE A
WEAK WAVE COULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION AND GENERATE SOME
LOW CHC POPS.

CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

BEACHLER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...

* SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00-01Z.
* ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON POP UP TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF
  TERMINALS.
* BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MAY IMPACT TERMINALS
  AFT 08Z.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
  MONDAY.
* GUSTY TSRA LIKELY MONDAY EVENING AT ORD AND MDW.

ED F/MTF

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...

BROAD SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON
MONDAY. EXPECTING TO SEE ISOLATED POP UP TSTMS IN THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON TODAY HOWEVER THOSE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. STRENGTHENING CAP
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON WILL HELP LIMIT DURATION AND CAUSE WHATS
OUT THERE NOW TO DIMINISH.

WAVES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER IOWA INITIALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO PASS NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... TRACK OF
STORM CLUSTERS TO TURN MORE EAST WITH TIME... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BEST CHANCES AT ORD AND MDW APPEARING NOW TO
BE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

ED F

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...

* HIGH FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR CLOUD/CIG TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
* LOW FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.

ED F/MTF

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* MONDAY NIGHT...EVENING TSRA WITH STRONG WINDS/HEAVY RAIN.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
212 PM CDT

UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIES OVER MANITOBA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE ARE HELPING TO KEEP THE WINDS IN
CHECK TO SOME DEGREE...BUT SOME SHIPS HAVE REPORTED WINDS TO
AROUND 30 KT SO FAR TODAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE MODERATE WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH ON
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. ALSO...DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S HAVE BEEN
TRANSPORTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE. THERE IS NO
CLEAR REASON FOR THE FOG TO DISSIPATE UNTIL LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE. WILL EXTEND
THE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO BEYOND
THAT EVEN.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 249 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
204 PM CDT

TONIGHT...
LINGERING STRATUS CLOUDS FINALLY BURNED OFF LATE THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTN. VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES SOME OF THE CU FIELD WAS BECOMING AGITATED AND TRYING TO
BUILD SOUTH OF I-80 THIS AFTN...WHICH WAS THE REGION WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE WAS AVAILABLE AS DEW POINTS LINGERED ARND 70 TO LOW 70S.
THE STRONGER WAVE WAS STILL WELL WEST OF THE CWFA INTO
CENTRAL/WESTERN IOWA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTN/EVE WILL RESIDE. FURTHER EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST
IN...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STEADILY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK WARM LAYER ALOFT...HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WAS EXPECTED. WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THIS AFTN...ALTHOUGH A FEW POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
LASALLE TO VALPARAISO COULD STILL TAG 90 THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE TEMPS
SHUD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPR 80S.

THE STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SHOW OR NO-SHOW IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTION. THEN IN WHAT CAPACITY WILL IT ARRIVE ACROSS A PORTION OF
OUR CWFA TONIGHT/EARLY MON. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST WE
ARE SITTING ON ABOUT 2K J/KG OF CAPE...UNFORTUNATELY A WARM LAYER
ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO A MINIMA THRU AT LEAST
23Z. UPSTREAM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE INHIBITION OVER
CENTRAL IA SHUD BEGIN TO DISSOLVE BY 20-21Z...AND EXPECT AN UPTICK
IN CONVECTIVE GROWTH THERE. LOCAL ARW8KM SOLUTION HAS A SIMILAR WARM
LAYER ALOFT...WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT AS A CAP AND COULD LINGER TO
ARND 00Z MON TO POSSIBLY 04Z.

UTILIZING THE BUNKER STORM MOTION...IT APPEARS THAT IF CONVECTION
CAN DEVELOP UPSTREAM IT WOULD SLIDE EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL CWFA
THEN TURN SOUTHEAST CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN CWFA. BUT THE QUESTION
REMAINS WILL CONVECTION BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO THE CWFA
TONIGHT...AND WITH THE STRENGTHENING PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT THIS
LOOKS TO BE CHALLENGING.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

MONDAY...
THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE DAY OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. THE TIMING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED IN
THE AFTN/EVE TIMEFRAME. THE DAY SHUD START OFF WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. PROFILES INDICATE STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES BY EARLY AFTN...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A SIZABLE PUSH
OF WARM AIR ALOFT THAT COULD KEEP THINGS CAPPED YET AGAIN THRU
21-22Z MON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE WAVE OVER IOWA ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF A MID-LVL TROUGH/VORT TO BE THE FOCAL POINT.
THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AFT
21Z...SO THE TIMING OF LATE AFTN/EVE FOR GREATEST CONVECTIVE GROWTH
AND COVERAGE REMAINS IN PLACE. STORM MOTION MON EVE LOOKS TO BE
PUSHING EAST THEN BEGIN TURNING SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME SPC HAS THE
ENTIRE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT RISK...WITH THE GREATEST HAZARDS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

TEMPS MON WILL HINGE UPON THE MORNING CLOUD COVERAGE AND HOW QUICKLY
THAT CAN ERODE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TEMPS SHUD PUSH INTO THE
MID/UPR 80S WITH DEW PTS IN THE LOW 70S. THE COMBINATION WILL CREATE
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID/UPR 90S.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DRY SLOT QUICKLY ARRIVES BEHIND THE VORT PASSAGE TUE...WHICH SHUD
ALLOW MUCH OF TUE TO BE DRY. LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH A MORE ROBUST MID-LVL TROUGH JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION WED. ANOTHER LOBE OF
VORTICITY IS PROGGED TO PIVOT OVERHEAD WED MORNING...AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHC FOR PRECIP. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY...IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE GENERAL SHOWERS. FLOW THEN TURNS
NORTHWESTERLY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWFA. TUE
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STILL TAG THE 80S...WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO WARM
BEYOND THE LOW/MID 70S WED/THUR. BROAD SFC RIDGE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS
IN WED NGT/THUR...WITH PLEASANT AND LESS HUMID CONDS DEVELOPING.

CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN MAY BE ADJUSTING FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST CONUS. IN CONCERT WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST...THERMAL
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THIS WILL LIKELY AID IN MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO POSSIBLY MID 80S. WHILE IT
LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE CWFA...IT IS POSSIBLE A
WEAK WAVE COULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION AND GENERATE SOME
LOW CHC POPS.

CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

BEACHLER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00-01Z.
* ISOLATED AFTERNOON POP UP TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF
  TERMINALS.
* BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT... MAY IMPACT TERMINALS
  AFT 08Z.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
  MONDAY.
* TSRA LIKELY MONDAY EVENING AT ORD AND MDW.

ED F

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...

BROAD SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON
MONDAY. EXPECTING TO SEE ISOLATED POP UP TSTMS IN THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON TODAY HOWEVER THOSE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. STRENGTHENING CAP
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON WILL HELP LIMIT DURATION AND CAUSE WHATS
OUT THERE NOW TO DIMINISH.

WAVES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER IOWA INITIALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO PASS NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... TRACK OF
STORM CLUSTERS TO TURN MORE EAST WITH TIME... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BEST CHANCES AT ORD AND MDW APPEARING NOW TO
BE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

ED F

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

* HIGH FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR CLOUD/CIG TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
* LOW FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.

ED F

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* MONDAY NIGHT...EVENING TSRA WITH STRONG WINDS/HEAVY RAIN.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
212 PM CDT

UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIES OVER MANITOBA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE ARE HELPING TO KEEP THE WINDS IN
CHECK TO SOME DEGREE...BUT SOME SHIPS HAVE REPORTED WINDS TO
AROUND 30 KT SO FAR TODAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE MODERATE WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH ON
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. ALSO...DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S HAVE BEEN
TRANSPORTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE. THERE IS NO
CLEAR REASON FOR THE FOG TO DISSIPATE UNTIL LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE. WILL EXTEND
THE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO BEYOND
THAT EVEN.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 214 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
204 PM CDT

TONIGHT...
LINGERING STRATUS CLOUDS FINALLY BURNED OFF LATE THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTN. VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES SOME OF THE CU FIELD WAS BECOMING AGITATED AND TRYING TO
BUILD SOUTH OF I-80 THIS AFTN...WHICH WAS THE REGION WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE WAS AVAILABLE AS DEW POINTS LINGERED ARND 70 TO LOW 70S.
THE STRONGER WAVE WAS STILL WELL WEST OF THE CWFA INTO
CENTRAL/WESTERN IOWA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTN/EVE WILL RESIDE. FURTHER EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST
IN...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STEADILY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK WARM LAYER ALOFT...HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WAS EXPECTED. WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THIS AFTN...ALTHOUGH A FEW POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
LASALLE TO VALPARAISO COULD STILL TAG 90 THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE TEMPS
SHUD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPR 80S.

THE STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SHOW OR NO-SHOW IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTION. THEN IN WHAT CAPACITY WILL IT ARRIVE ACROSS A PORTION OF
OUR CWFA TONIGHT/EARLY MON. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST WE
ARE SITTING ON ABOUT 2K J/KG OF CAPE...UNFORTUNATELY A WARM LAYER
ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO A MINIMA THRU AT LEAST
23Z. UPSTREAM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE INHIBITION OVER
CENTRAL IA SHUD BEGIN TO DISSOLVE BY 20-21Z...AND EXPECT AN UPTICK
IN CONVECTIVE GROWTH THERE. LOCAL ARW8KM SOLUTION HAS A SIMILAR WARM
LAYER ALOFT...WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT AS A CAP AND COULD LINGER TO
ARND 00Z MON TO POSSIBLY 04Z.

UTILIZING THE BUNKER STORM MOTION...IT APPEARS THAT IF CONVECTION
CAN DEVELOP UPSTREAM IT WOULD SLIDE EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL CWFA
THEN TURN SOUTHEAST CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN CWFA. BUT THE QUESTION
REMAINS WILL CONVECTION BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO THE CWFA
TONIGHT...AND WITH THE STRENGTHENING PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT THIS
LOOKS TO BE CHALLENGING.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

MONDAY...
THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE DAY OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. THE TIMING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED IN
THE AFTN/EVE TIMEFRAME. THE DAY SHUD START OFF WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. PROFILES INDICATE STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES BY EARLY AFTN...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A SIZABLE PUSH
OF WARM AIR ALOFT THAT COULD KEEP THINGS CAPPED YET AGAIN THRU
21-22Z MON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE WAVE OVER IOWA ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF A MID-LVL TROUGH/VORT TO BE THE FOCAL POINT.
THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AFT
21Z...SO THE TIMING OF LATE AFTN/EVE FOR GREATEST CONVECTIVE GROWTH
AND COVERAGE REMAINS IN PLACE. STORM MOTION MON EVE LOOKS TO BE
PUSHING EAST THEN BEGIN TURNING SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME SPC HAS THE
ENTIRE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT RISK...WITH THE GREATEST HAZARDS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

TEMPS MON WILL HINGE UPON THE MORNING CLOUD COVERAGE AND HOW QUICKLY
THAT CAN ERODE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TEMPS SHUD PUSH INTO THE
MID/UPR 80S WITH DEW PTS IN THE LOW 70S. THE COMBINATION WILL CREATE
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID/UPR 90S.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DRY SLOT QUICKLY ARRIVES BEHIND THE VORT PASSAGE TUE...WHICH SHUD
ALLOW MUCH OF TUE TO BE DRY. LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH A MORE ROBUST MID-LVL TROUGH JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION WED. ANOTHER LOBE OF
VORTICITY IS PROGGED TO PIVOT OVERHEAD WED MORNING...AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHC FOR PRECIP. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY...IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE GENERAL SHOWERS. FLOW THEN TURNS
NORTHWESTERLY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWFA. TUE
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STILL TAG THE 80S...WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO WARM
BEYOND THE LOW/MID 70S WED/THUR. BROAD SFC RIDGE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS
IN WED NGT/THUR...WITH PLEASANT AND LESS HUMID CONDS DEVELOPING.

CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN MAY BE ADJUSTING FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST CONUS. IN CONCERT WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST...THERMAL
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THIS WILL LIKELY AID IN MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO POSSIBLY MID 80S. WHILE IT
LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE CWFA...IT IS POSSIBLE A
WEAK WAVE COULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION AND GENERATE SOME
LOW CHC POPS.

CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

BEACHLER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* BRIEF DURATION MVFR CIG STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 19Z.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00-01Z.
* ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING POP UP TSRA SHOULD STAY
  SOUTH OF TERMINALS.
* BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT... MAY IMPACT TERMINALS.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON MONDAY.
* TSRA LIKELY MONDAY EVENING.

ED F

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

BROAD SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON
MONDAY. EXPECTING TO SEE ISOLATED POP UP TSTMS IN THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON TODAY HOWEVER THOSE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED.

WAVES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER IOWA INITIALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO PASS NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... TRACK OF
STORM CLUSTERS TO TURN MORE EAST WITH TIME... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BEST CHANCES AT ORD AND MDW APPEARING NOW TO
BE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

ED F

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* HIGH FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR CLOUD/CIG TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
* LOW FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.

ED F

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* MONDAY NIGHT...EVENING TSRA WITH STRONG WINDS/HEAVY RAIN.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
212 PM CDT

UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIES OVER MANITOBA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.
STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE ARE HELPING TO KEEP THE WINDS IN
CHECK TO SOME DEGREE...BUT SOME SHIPS HAVE REPORTED WINDS TO
AROUND 30 KT SO FAR TODAY. THE GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE MODERATE WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH ON
MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. ALSO...DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S HAVE BEEN
TRANSPORTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE. THERE IS NO
CLEAR REASON FOR THE FOG TO DISSIPATE UNTIL LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKE. WILL EXTEND
THE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO BEYOND
THAT EVEN.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 204 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
204 PM CDT

TONIGHT...
LINGERING STRATUS CLOUDS FINALLY BURNED OFF LATE THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTN. VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES SOME OF THE CU FIELD WAS BECOMING AGITATED AND TRYING TO
BUILD SOUTH OF I-80 THIS AFTN...WHICH WAS THE REGION WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE WAS AVAILABLE AS DEW POINTS LINGERED ARND 70 TO LOW 70S.
THE STRONGER WAVE WAS STILL WELL WEST OF THE CWFA INTO
CENTRAL/WESTERN IOWA...WITH THE FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTN/EVE WILL RESIDE. FURTHER EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST
IN...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STEADILY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK WARM LAYER ALOFT...HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WAS EXPECTED. WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THIS AFTN...ALTHOUGH A FEW POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
LASALLE TO VALPARAISO COULD STILL TAG 90 THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE TEMPS
SHUD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPR 80S.

THE STORY FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SHOW OR NO-SHOW IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTION. THEN IN WHAT CAPACITY WILL IT ARRIVE ACROSS A PORTION OF
OUR CWFA TONIGHT/EARLY MON. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST WE
ARE SITTING ON ABOUT 2K J/KG OF CAPE...UNFORTUNATELY A WARM LAYER
ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO A MINIMA THRU AT LEAST
23Z. UPSTREAM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE INHIBITION OVER
CENTRAL IA SHUD BEGIN TO DISSOLVE BY 20-21Z...AND EXPECT AN UPTICK
IN CONVECTIVE GROWTH THERE. LOCAL ARW8KM SOLUTION HAS A SIMILAR WARM
LAYER ALOFT...WHICH WILL LIKELY ACT AS A CAP AND COULD LINGER TO
ARND 00Z MON TO POSSIBLY 04Z.

UTILIZING THE BUNKER STORM MOTION...IT APPEARS THAT IF CONVECTION
CAN DEVELOP UPSTREAM IT WOULD SLIDE EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL CWFA
THEN TURN SOUTHEAST CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN CWFA. BUT THE QUESTION
REMAINS WILL CONVECTION BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO THE CWFA
TONIGHT...AND WITH THE STRENGTHENING PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT THIS
LOOKS TO BE CHALLENGING.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S.

MONDAY...
THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE DAY OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. THE TIMING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED IN
THE AFTN/EVE TIMEFRAME. THE DAY SHUD START OFF WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. PROFILES INDICATE STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES BY EARLY AFTN...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A SIZABLE PUSH
OF WARM AIR ALOFT THAT COULD KEEP THINGS CAPPED YET AGAIN THRU
21-22Z MON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE WAVE OVER IOWA ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF A MID-LVL TROUGH/VORT TO BE THE FOCAL POINT.
THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AFT
21Z...SO THE TIMING OF LATE AFTN/EVE FOR GREATEST CONVECTIVE GROWTH
AND COVERAGE REMAINS IN PLACE. STORM MOTION MON EVE LOOKS TO BE
PUSHING EAST THEN BEGIN TURNING SOUTHEAST. AT THIS TIME SPC HAS THE
ENTIRE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT RISK...WITH THE GREATEST HAZARDS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

TEMPS MON WILL HINGE UPON THE MORNING CLOUD COVERAGE AND HOW QUICKLY
THAT CAN ERODE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TEMPS SHUD PUSH INTO THE
MID/UPR 80S WITH DEW PTS IN THE LOW 70S. THE COMBINATION WILL CREATE
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID/UPR 90S.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DRY SLOT QUICKLY ARRIVES BEHIND THE VORT PASSAGE TUE...WHICH SHUD
ALLOW MUCH OF TUE TO BE DRY. LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY
WITH A MORE ROBUST MID-LVL TROUGH JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION WED. ANOTHER LOBE OF
VORTICITY IS PROGGED TO PIVOT OVERHEAD WED MORNING...AND WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHC FOR PRECIP. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY...IT
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE GENERAL SHOWERS. FLOW THEN TURNS
NORTHWESTERLY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE CWFA. TUE
HIGHS WILL LIKELY STILL TAG THE 80S...WITH TEMPS STRUGGLING TO WARM
BEYOND THE LOW/MID 70S WED/THUR. BROAD SFC RIDGE THEN QUICKLY BUILDS
IN WED NGT/THUR...WITH PLEASANT AND LESS HUMID CONDS DEVELOPING.

CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE PATTERN MAY BE ADJUSTING FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST CONUS. IN CONCERT WITH THE RIDGE OUT WEST...THERMAL
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WEST AS WELL.
THIS WILL LIKELY AID IN MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THE OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO POSSIBLY MID 80S. WHILE IT
LOOKS LIKE A DRY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE CWFA...IT IS POSSIBLE A
WEAK WAVE COULD SLIDE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION AND GENERATE SOME
LOW CHC POPS.

CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

BEACHLER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* BRIEF DURATION MVFR CIG STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 19Z.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00-01Z.
* ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING POP UP TSRA SHOULD STAY
  SOUTH OF TERMINALS.
* BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT... MAY IMPACT TERMINALS.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON MONDAY.
* TSRA LIKELY MONDAY EVENING.

ED F

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

BROAD SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON
MONDAY. EXPECTING TO SEE ISOLATED POP UP TSTMS IN THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON TODAY HOWEVER THOSE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED.

WAVES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER IOWA INITIALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO PASS NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... TRACK OF
STORM CLUSTERS TO TURN MORE EAST WITH TIME... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BEST CHANCES AT ORD AND MDW APPEARING NOW TO
BE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

ED F

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* HIGH FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR CLOUD/CIG TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
* LOW FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.

ED F

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* MONDAY NIGHT...EVENING TSRA WITH STRONG WINDS/HEAVY RAIN.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

307 AM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO MONDAY REACHING JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN WINDS
WILL SHIFT WESTERLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE TODAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO TONIGHT WHILE THE DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN MORE
PATCHY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. CMS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1254 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
352 AM CDT

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
MAINLY LATER TONIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXIST. VERY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE
GRADUAL COOLING/DRYING TREND BEGINS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY
AND MILD WEATHER LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE 4TH OF JULY FRIDAY...THEN
WARMING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AGAIN LATER
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE THREAT
OF RAIN QUICKLY SHIFTING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO INDIANA SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. WEAK HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP KEEP THINGS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME CAP IS LIKELY TO BE
PRESENT AS INDICATED IN SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...WRF AND RAP SUGGEST
WEAKER CAPPING. SUSPECT A COUPLE OF MCVS ARE PRESENT UPSTREAM WITH
SMALL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS NOTED OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST IA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD AID IN LOCALLY
WEAKENING CAP AND PRODUCING SOME FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM ABOUT 3 PM INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS ANTICIPATED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING STORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
INTO A SEVERE MCS WHICH WOULD THEN SPREAD EAST INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL TIMING AFTER DARK
WOULD SUGGEST WEAKENING OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE FARTHER EAST
TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPC HAS EXPANDED THEIR DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS MOST OF THE IL PORTION OF OUR CWA...WITH ENHANCED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT EXTENDING INTO WESTERN IL. DECAYING REMAINS OF OVERNIGHT
MCS SHOULD WORK TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THE COMBINATION OF A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
APPEARS FAIRLY HIGH FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY
2 OUTLOOK PLACES ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED
PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW
EVOLUTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ESPECIALLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST. SEVERE
THREAT...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVERALL...WILL THEN DECREASE
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.

A SLOW COOLING/DRYING TREND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TUESDAY-THURSDAY...
AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRAVERSE THE SLOW MOVING LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY
QPF DURING THE TRANSITION...MAINLY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY SPREADS INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY IN TIME FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY...
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SUNDAY LOOKS
WARMER AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS INTO THE MIDWEST...THOUGH WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOO.

TEMPERATURE WISE...BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH 850 MB TEMPS +20 TO +22 C. HAVE AGAIN GONE
ABOVE MOS NUMBERS FOR MAXES...BASED ON 925/950 MB THERMAL FIELDS AND
LOCAL CLIMO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS/CLOUD COVER REMAIN THE WILD
CARDS WITH HIGH TEMPS...THOUGH LOW 90S SHOULD BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHERE SUFFICIENT SUN/HEATING OCCUR.
TEMPS THEN FALL OFF INTO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE LATER IN THE WEEK...
WITH ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING LAKE SHORE AREAS IN THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* BRIEF DURATION MVFR CIG STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 19Z.
* SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH 00-01Z.
* ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING POP UP TSRA SHOULD STAY
  SOUTH OF TERMINALS.
* BETTER CHANCE OF TSRA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT... MAY IMPACT TERMINALS.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON MONDAY.
* TSRA LIKELY MONDAY EVENING.

ED F

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

BROAD SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE MORNING-AFTERNOON
MONDAY. EXPECTING TO SEE ISOLATED POP UP TSTMS IN THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON TODAY HOWEVER THOSE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED.

WAVES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER IOWA INITIALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO PASS NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER... TRACK OF
STORM CLUSTERS TO TURN MORE EAST WITH TIME... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BEST CHANCES AT ORD AND MDW APPEARING NOW TO
BE BETWEEN 08Z-11Z.

ED F

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* HIGH FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR CLOUD/CIG TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
* LOW FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY.

ED F

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* MONDAY NIGHT...EVENING TSRA WITH STRONG WINDS/HEAVY RAIN.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

307 AM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO MONDAY REACHING JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN WINDS
WILL SHIFT WESTERLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE TODAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO TONIGHT WHILE THE DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN MORE
PATCHY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. CMS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1110 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
352 AM CDT

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
MAINLY LATER TONIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXIST. VERY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALSO ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE
GRADUAL COOLING/DRYING TREND BEGINS TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY
AND MILD WEATHER LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE 4TH OF JULY FRIDAY...THEN
WARMING WITH SOME INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AGAIN LATER
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE THREAT
OF RAIN QUICKLY SHIFTING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO INDIANA SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. WEAK HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP KEEP THINGS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME CAP IS LIKELY TO BE
PRESENT AS INDICATED IN SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS...WRF AND RAP SUGGEST
WEAKER CAPPING. SUSPECT A COUPLE OF MCVS ARE PRESENT UPSTREAM WITH
SMALL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS NOTED OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST IA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH COULD AID IN LOCALLY
WEAKENING CAP AND PRODUCING SOME FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM ABOUT 3 PM INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS ANTICIPATED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING STORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
INTO A SEVERE MCS WHICH WOULD THEN SPREAD EAST INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL TIMING AFTER DARK
WOULD SUGGEST WEAKENING OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE FARTHER EAST
TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. SPC HAS EXPANDED THEIR DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS MOST OF THE IL PORTION OF OUR CWA...WITH ENHANCED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT EXTENDING INTO WESTERN IL. DECAYING REMAINS OF OVERNIGHT
MCS SHOULD WORK TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INCREASES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...AS TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND UPPER JET STREAK LIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THE COMBINATION OF A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
APPEARS FAIRLY HIGH FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC DAY
2 OUTLOOK PLACES ENTIRE CWA IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED
PROBABILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER. THUNDERSTORM/OUTFLOW
EVOLUTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LIKELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ESPECIALLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL EXIST. SEVERE
THREAT...AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVERALL...WILL THEN DECREASE
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.

A SLOW COOLING/DRYING TREND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TUESDAY-THURSDAY...
AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRAVERSE THE SLOW MOVING LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY
QPF DURING THE TRANSITION...MAINLY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY SPREADS INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY IN TIME FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY...
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SUNDAY LOOKS
WARMER AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS INTO THE MIDWEST...THOUGH WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOO.

TEMPERATURE WISE...BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH 850 MB TEMPS +20 TO +22 C. HAVE AGAIN GONE
ABOVE MOS NUMBERS FOR MAXES...BASED ON 925/950 MB THERMAL FIELDS AND
LOCAL CLIMO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS/CLOUD COVER REMAIN THE WILD
CARDS WITH HIGH TEMPS...THOUGH LOW 90S SHOULD BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
SPOTS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHERE SUFFICIENT SUN/HEATING OCCUR.
TEMPS THEN FALL OFF INTO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE LATER IN THE WEEK...
WITH ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING LAKE SHORE AREAS IN THE LOWER 70S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* BRIEF DURATION MVFR CIG STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z.
* GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BY LATE MORNING.
* LOW CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS EVENING... BETTER CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

ED F

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

LOWER CIGS HAVE BEEN VARYING BETWEEN SCT AND BKN AT MANY LOCATIONS
BUT FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST CIGS ARE MORE BKN
TO OVC AND OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH BKN PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING. IFR CIGS APPEAR TO BE CONFINED FROM DPA/ARR AND POINTS TO
THE WEST AND THESE SHOULD LIFT TO LOW MVFR IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
MVFR CIGS WILL THEN LIFT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING AND MAY SCATTER
OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

AREA OF TSRA OVER NORTHWEST IOWA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO A BIT MORE STABLE AIR BUT
TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL TSRA ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS IOWA AND MISSOURI AND MAY MOVE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING OR MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT...WHICH
IS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY BUT THE BEST CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL INCREASE SOME THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS INTO THE MID/UPPER TEEN KNOT RANGE THROUGH SUNSET. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. CMS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* HIGH FOR MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING.
* HIGH FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* LOW FOR SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

ED F

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

* MONDAY NIGHT...EVENING TSRA WITH STRONG WINDS/HEAVY RAIN.
* TUESDAY...DRY/VFR. STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.
* WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

307 AM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO MONDAY REACHING JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY. THE
GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KTS WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN WINDS
WILL SHIFT WESTERLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE TODAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO TONIGHT WHILE THE DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN MORE
PATCHY ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE. CMS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ868 UNTIL 4 PM SUNDAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA

 117 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1144 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE REST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
TODAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPS A BIT MAINLY SE PORTION OF CWA.
ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS WIDESPREAD IN THIS AREA ATTM... TEMPS ALREADY
NEAR FCST HIGHS AND EXPECT CONTD DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE THIS AFTN. NO CHANGE TO EARLIER UPDATED POPS.
SCT SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG TROF OVER NW OH/SE MI/NE IN. AS
TROF MOVES EAST THIS AFTN SUBSIDENCE SHOULD HINDER FURTHER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT DESPITE EXPECTED MODERATE INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

CONCERNS FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE APPROACH OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.

LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS MAKING PROGRESS EAST FROM SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED
MID LEVEL WAVE. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR ACTIVITY TO SHIFT MORE NE
THAN E AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WITH TIME. UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH MUCH OF THE REGION SEEING SURFACE BASED
CAPES 500 TO 1000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES -3 TO -5 C. HRRR 00Z AND
02Z RUNS BOTH DEPICTED OVERALL SETUP QUITE WELL...DOWN TO ISOLATED
CONVECTION NW OF CHICAGO AND A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVER LK MI. IF
FOLLOWING AT FACE VALUE THEN CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BUBBLE BUT
EVENTUALLY FALL APART TOWARDS MORNING AS MAIN ENERGY LIFTS NORTH.
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...THESE SAME RUNS DO SHOW SOME WIDELY SCT TO
MAYBE SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 14Z AS LEFTOVERS AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ILLINOIS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES THROUGH. SMALL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WITH TROUGH QUICKLY EXITING BY 20Z WITH RAPID
DECREASE IN PRECIP AFTER THAT. PREVIOUS GRIDS ALREADY HAD MORNING
TREND IN PLACE AND NO REASON TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES. ALSO...MID RANGE
CHC POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE WITH AT MOST CHANGE TO SCT WORDING.
SOME CONCERN THAT LITTLE OVERALL PRECIP MAY OCCUR. CLEARING WILL
TAKE PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE MID 80S.

TROUGH WILL NOT REALLY TAKE ANY OF THE LOW LEVEL MSTR WITH IT AS
DEWPTS REMAIN IN THE UPR 60S TO LOWER 70S...YIELDING A MUGGY NIGHT
FOR THE REGION WITH LOWS AROUND 70. ON THE PLUS SIDE...DRY FORECAST
SHOULD EXIST WITH FORCING MECHANISMS TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE OPENING INTO A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS TROUGH WILL HELP DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR LOCAL
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY MID WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS IN THE BEGINNING PORTION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. A VERY WARM AND MOIST MONDAY IS ON TAP WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER AND EVEN MID 70S. PWAT VALUES
NEARING 2 INCHES AND CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2-3K J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH VALUES LESS THAN 7C/KM AND NO STRONG
TRIGGER NOTED. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND INDUCED VORTICITY
MAXIMA REMAIN POSSIBLE AND COULD EASILY IGNITE SCATTERED TSRA. THUS
LOW CHANCE POPS WARRANTED FOR MONDAY. LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BE BE
MOVING INTO UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. TIMING NOT IDEAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT EXPECT ORGANIZED
LINE OF STORMS UPSTREAM IN THE EVENING WITH A FORWARD PROPAGATING
MCS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONT. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FOR WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH CHANCE POP EAST INTO TUE
MORNING.

DEWPOINTS TO SLOWLY FALL TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA. MAIN UPPER TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH REGION WEDNESDAY
AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION SO WILL HOLD
ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR THEN EXPECTED WED
NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. STAYED WITH ALLBLEND GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

PREDOMINANTLY SCT CU EXPECTED THIS AFTN AS MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH TROF PASSAGE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH WK RIDGING
ALOFT IN ITS WAKE. MOIST LOW LEVEL SSW FLOW WILL CONT THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN  MVFR STRATUS/BR DEVELOPING
LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT


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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 1240 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

08Z water vapor imagery shows a closed low along the ND/Canadian
boarder with zonal flow from the central plains through the eastern
Pacific ocean. At the surface, a surface low was north of ND with a
trough of low pressure extending south through the Dakotas and into
the southern high plains. Obs indicate a very moist low level
airmass with dewpoints in the lower 70s is currently advecting
northwest into the central high plains. This moisture advection
along with convergence along the nose of the low level jet have
combined to produce elevated thunderstorms across western KS.

For today, the models show little in the way of synoptic scale
forcing upstream of the forecast area, and they keep the broad
surface trough of low pressure to the west of the area. This should
allow for the moist airmass to remain over the area and with daytime
heating, become very unstable by this afternoon. The RAP and NAM
show surface based CAPE values around 4000 J/kg developing as highs
warm to around 90. Additionally there is not much in the way of
inhibition to convection. So the concern is any little vort max
could set off robust convection today. The RAP and NAM want to bring
just such a vort max, generated from the elevated convection over
western KS, over northeast KS during peak heating. In addition to
the potential instability, deep layer shear should be stronger with
the zonal flow aloft increasing mid level winds. Models prog 0-6 km
shear could increase to around 50 KTS. So while forcing is not
all that great, the combination of shear and instability could be
more than enough for severe thunderstorms if the trigger comes along
and sets off convection. The main concerns with storms would be
large hail and torrential rainfall due to steep mid level lapse
rates and high PWs. 0-1 KM shear parameters appear to favor any
tornado potential just to the north of the forecast area until the
early evening when storms may have evolved into an MCS. However any
discrete storm that may interact with an outflow boundary and
locally backed winds could see an enhances tornado potential this
afternoon across northeast KS. Of course this is expecting the
elevated convection to the west to fall apart or dive southeast
this morning as the high res models have suggested. Because of this
there still remains some uncertainty in how storms will evolve
through the day. At this point, the forecast expects the convection
to the west to weaken before getting to deep into eastern KS as the
boundary layer mixes out and convergence along the low level jet
diminishes. Then storms may form over southeast NEB or northern KS
early this afternoon.

For tonight a moist and unstable airmass is anticipated to persist
through the night as the low level jet redevelops. So while storms
from the afternoon and early evening may eventually move east, it is
hard to rule out possible elevated convection forming during the
overnight. Convergence and instability look better across northern
KS and into NEB so this is where the forecast will hold onto some
chance POPs through the overnight. Temps will be warm overnight as a
muggy airmass hangs in across the area. Lows are forecast to be in
the lower and mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

Another day of conditional severe convection is expected on Monday
afternoon. The main exception would be the cold front providing a
more organized area of lift to initiate late afternoon/early evening
thunderstorms. On the other hand, a wrench in the forecast could be
in the mesoscale features of how Sunday evening`s storm complex
evolves across the area. Believe the latest NAM may be a bit too
fast pushing the line of convection east before midnight while
developing an additional storm complex over Nebraska, impacting
northeast KS by midday Monday. This would offer little or no time
for the atmosphere to recover. Otherwise the GFS and ECMWF have been
in more consistent agreement of seeing some decent clearing across
central and east central areas Monday morning/afternoon. Unusually
high moisture content present with dewpoint temps progged in the low
to mid 70s will create a sharp instability gradient. Portions of
northeast, east central and central KS may see surface CAPE values
in excess of 4000 J/KG while deep layer shear resides in the 40 to
50 kt range. If we can realize a dry period and clearing on Monday,
scattered strong to severe storms are possible along and ahead of
the front. Best timing would be during the late afternoon when a
strong capping inversion erodes.

Second story of note for Monday will be the heat and humidity.
Strong surface heating/mixing ahead of the boundary will contribute
to highs in the lower and middle 90s. Heat indices appear to be
much higher as strong moisture pooling in the 70s bring readings in
the 100 to 103 range. If we are able to mix slightly warmer
temperatures downward, we may be close to advisory criteria.

Main change to the forecast is with increasing precip chances
further north late Monday evening into Tuesday as operational
guidance is showing increasing similarities in a stout shortwave
trough rounding the base of the broad upper trough axis over Kansas.
In addition, decent frontogenesis in the 850-700 MB layer provides
an enhanced area of lift for showers developing over central Kansas,
tracking east into the CWA. Instability is limited with main
concerns being light to moderate rainfall. Dependent on the speed
and intensity of the showers, localized flooding is possible.
Locations south of Interstate 70 see the best possibility of the
this occurrence, based on the track of the upper trough. In addition
to the precip chances, high temps Tuesday behind the front were
lowered to near 80 degrees under mostly cloudy skies.

With ridging to our west and no apparent areas of upper forcing,
have opted to go dry Wednesday through late Friday evening.
Independence Day at this time is mostly dry and warm with an incoming
wave tracking east across the weakening ridge. The GFS is much
faster than the ECMWF so will keep slight chances across northern
areas late Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

Thunderstorms will begin to develop across the terminals late this
afternoon and continue through the early evening. KTOP and KFOE
will have the better chances for thunderstorms. The stronger
thunderstorms may bring brief MVFR or IFR conditions to the
terminals. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Gargan







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WICHITA KS

 1213 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LINGERING OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS FROM
EARLIER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS WANING AND
SHOULD DIMINISH BY MORNING. A NEW COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...NEAR AND ALONG I-70. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD WITH TIME THIS MORNING.
OVERNIGHT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S WITH LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

TODAY:
SHORT-TERM HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE SHOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING SATURDAYS RUNS AND THE
LATEST HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE EXTENT OF THE
COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AND
SKIES TO CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME TEMPS MAY TAKE A HIT
FROM EARLY CLOUDS...BUT HAVE REMAINED ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO BE BETWEEN 100-105.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NEBRASKA
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
IMPACT MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS POSSIBLE...THE
BETTER CHANCES LIE ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. THESE
STORMS HAVE THE CHANCE TO BE SEVERE WITH 1500-3000 J/KG CAPE AND
30-40 KTS SHEAR.

MONDAY - TUESDAY:
THIS PERIOD ALSO LOOKS ACTIVE WITH THE NEXT WAVE PUSHING A FRONT
THROUGH KANSAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHWARD REACHING SOUTHERN KANSAS BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FIRST CONCERN ON MONDAY IS GOING TO BE
HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A JUICY AIRMASS. THIS
WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO BE BETWEEN 100-105 AGAIN. AVOID OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES DURING THE PEAK OF THE DAY IF POSSIBLE.

THE SECOND CONCERN MONDAY EVENING WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A
LATER START...POST 00Z FOR THIS ACTIVITY. THERE IS PLENTIFUL CAPE
AND SHEAR MEANING THAT THESE STORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE CHANCES
TO BE SEVERE.

THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH TUESDAY AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER WITH THE COMBINATION OF BEING NORTH OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS
THE CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER
SOUTH...MEANING KANSAS HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF A FEW DRY AND COOLER
DAYS FOR MID-LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE WIND FIELD TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN. WITH THE PLAINS
BEING IN SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. THESE MAY HELP TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY. DETAILS WILL BE BETTER DETERMINED AS THE
TIME PERIOD NEARS. OVERALL A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF THE
FORECAST.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
PROBABILITIES FOR DIRECT HITS ARE PROBABLY TOO LOW TO MENTION
THUNDER IN MOST TAF SITES. THE SIGNAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
EARLY MONDAY MORNING IS NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS DAYS...SO WILL
LEAVE OUT MENTION THIS FAR OUT FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  73  96  68 /  40  20  20  70
HUTCHINSON      89  73  97  65 /  70  20  20  70
NEWTON          89  71  95  65 /  60  20  20  70
ELDORADO        89  72  93  66 /  40  20  20  70
WINFIELD-KWLD   92  73  94  68 /  20  20  20  70
RUSSELL         90  71  91  62 /  80  20  10  70
GREAT BEND      89  72  94  62 /  80  20  10  70
SALINA          91  74  96  65 /  60  20  10  60
MCPHERSON       89  72  96  65 /  70  20  20  70
COFFEYVILLE     90  74  92  70 /  20  20  20  50
CHANUTE         89  73  91  68 /  30  20  20  70
IOLA            89  73  91  68 /  30  20  20  70
PARSONS-KPPF    89  74  91  68 /  30  20  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 306 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

OUTFLOW FROM THE WESTERN TN MCS FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS IGNITED
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND THESE CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST. STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING NE
AT ABOUT 14 TO 18 KNOTS THUS LIMITING THE RESIDENCE TIME OF THE
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP UPSTREAM SO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING STILL REMAINS A THREAT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.6 INCHES. RADAR ESTIMATES OVER
1.5 INCHES IN WHITLEY COUNTY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WE EXPECT A DECREASE IN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER THE REMNANT MESOSCALE CIRCULATION FROM THE TN
MCS SHOULD MOVE OVER OUR AREA TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AFTER 03Z AND THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN 7H UVV. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS IDEA THAN THE NAM...BUT CONCEPTUALLY AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
LATER TONIGHT MAKES SENSE. IN FACT THE LATEST HRRR IS ALSO SHOWING A
DECREASE IN CONVECTION EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN AN UPTICK LATER
TONIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA IN THE GRIDS...AND NOT
FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIURNAL PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION CYCLE.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WE EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH CONVECTION ENDING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD OF MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. A RATHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE IS ON TAP FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...JUST IN TIME FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

TO START THE PERIOD...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY
EXPECTED...THIS SUBTLE FEATURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS OVERHEAD
AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER POPPING UP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE.

BY WEDNESDAY...A SHARP TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WE SEEM TO BE MISSING TRIGGERS...SO CONVECTION MAY NOT BE
ALL THAT WIDESPREAD. BY THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT FINALLY
PUSHES ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH PROBABLY THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEK. DRY...MUCH COOLER...AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL THEN SURGE SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
INDEPENDENCE DAY SETTING UP A BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE COOLER
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH DEWPOINTS
DOWN INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 40S. THIS WILL PROVIDE
COOL MORNINGS WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 50S. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE 80S EACH DAY...BUT THE LACK OF HUMIDITY WON`T MAKE IT FEEL QUITE
SO BAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SME
AND LOZ BEING IMPACTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND JKL AND SJS IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS
IMPACTING THE REGION INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 12Z MONDAY...BUT MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SBH






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

 124 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

WILL BE UPDATING NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1118 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

OUTFLOW FROM THE WESTERN TN MCS WILL SERVE AS FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS IN
THE LAKE CUMBERLAND AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING
ENE DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPDATED NDFD AND
ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS REFLECT THIS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE SENT TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS SHORTLY AFTER 14Z.
UPDATE WILL PRIMARILY BE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SKY
COVER...TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. THE GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY IS
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS EAST KY OF 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES AT
12Z...WITH THE 12Z ILN AND OHX SOUNDINGS AT 1.58 AND 1.55 INCHES. AS
SUCH HEAVY RAINERS STILL A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. STORM
MOTION MAY BE SLIGHTLY GREATER TODAY AT 11 TO 14 KNOTS BASED ON
MORNING SOUNDINGS. EVEN SO WITH CLUSTERS OF MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY ALSO LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES EAST KY IN 5
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR DAMAGING WIND. WILL ALSO BE UPDATING THE HWO
TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE THREATS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE POPS AND MINIMIZE THE FOG FOR THE REST OF
THE MORNING. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER...T...AND TD GRIDS BASED ON TH
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS WITH A NEW SET OF ZONES AND HWO TO FOLLOW BY 8 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SIMILAR SET UP AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH A
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST...NOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND A WEAK BOUNDARY LYING OVER EAST KENTUCKY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WELL AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW IS KEEPING A SUPPLY OF WARM AND HUMID
AIR ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. AS SUCH...DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 60S THROUGH THE AREA WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY A DEGREE OR SO
HIGHER IN MOST PLACES. ON RADAR...A LATE EVENING LULL IN ACTIVITY HAS
RETURNED TO EAST KENTUCKY AS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERNMOST
COUNTIES HAVE FADED OUT. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHOWERS IS MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...HEADING TOWARD THE CWA. ON SATELLITE...MID LEVEL
CLOUDS BRIEFLY REDEVELOPED EARLIER BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN OVER THE
AREA...THOUGH A NEW UPSURGE IS NOTED IN RECENT IMAGES. SO FAR THERE
HAS BEEN ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP THE FOG FROM SHOWING UP TOO THICK
IN THE AREA OBS AND WEB CAMS.

THE MODELS ARE AGAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THEY ALL TAKE THE DEEP AND BROAD CLOSED LOW FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS CIRCULATION WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NATION WITH PACKETS OF ENERGY
RIPPLING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN FLANK AND BRUSHING PAST KENTUCKY. THE
LEADING ONE OF THESE WILL PASS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER
HELPING TO FURTHER SUPPRESS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. ANOTHER MINOR WAVE
WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY. HEIGHTS OVER KENTUCKY WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED INTO MONDAY EVENING EVEN THOUGH THE
SOUTHERN RIDGE TRIES TO EDGE BACK NORTH INTO KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT...AND THE SMALL SCALE OF THE DETERMINATIVE
FEATURES...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MODEL BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SHOWERS...AND THEN INCREASINGLY
THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY TODAY AND PEAKING IN
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO DAYS ANY STORM
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DUE TO HIGH PWS...GREATER
THAN 1.7 INCHES...AND FAIRLY SLOW MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT CAN BE
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW WITH PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...A CONCERN ALONG
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. FOR MONDAY...THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE A TAD
DRIER...BUT THIS MAY ONLY SERVE TO ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS AND STORMS
DRIVEN BY THE BETTER INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESSER THAN THAT OF TODAY.

THE BCCONSSHORT WAS TAKEN FOR A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD
GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN THE BCCONSALL USED
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RIDGE AND
VALLEY SPOTS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP PRETTY CLOSE TO A MOS
BLEND...WITH A DIURNAL FLARE...THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS THE APPALACHIAN REGION OF
EASTERN KY OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO ONTARIO...ALLOWING A DEEP TROUGH TO MOVE INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION
EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
AMPLITUDE AS IT DOES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP A STRONG HOLD
ACROSS THE SE DURING THIS TIME...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BE SUPPRESSED
MORE SWRD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
AND LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO CEASE ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WHILE A BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CORRESPOND WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A ELONGATED COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL BLOCK THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THIS FRONT. AS A RESULT...STILL EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT
AND WEAKEN ACROSS KENTUCKY DURING THE MIDWEEK.  BEFORE IT IS FINALLY
ABLE TO DROP SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...WINDS WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO A MORE NRLY DIRECTION...AND DRIER MORE STABLE AIR
WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE REGION. POPS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH CLOUDS FOLLOWING SUIT. TEMPS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DROP BY THURSDAY...REACHING THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT
WITH MUCH LESS HUMIDITY IN THE AIR. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SHOULD
KEEP POPS OUT OF EASTERN KY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...GOOD DIURNAL RADIATION WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING
HIGH TEMPERATURES /BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S/ FOR
SATURDAY...WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
THE LOW 60S OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SME
AND LOZ BEING IMPACTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND JKL AND SJS IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS
IMPACTING THE REGION INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 12Z MONDAY...BUT MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SBH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

 1222 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.AVIATION...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. PERIODS OF MVFR/LOW
VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING
VFR BY 30/00Z. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO RETURN ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT...AFTER 30/06Z...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE
GETS TRAPPED BENEATH DIURNAL INVERSION. CEILINGS TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH 30/16Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOW TO MID 80S AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. DEW
POINTS ARE HOLDING UNDER THE CLOUDS...BUT SHOULD DROP OFF A BIT
INTO THE AFTERNOON KEEPING US BELOW ANY MAJOR HEAT CONCERNS. THERE
IS JUST NOT MUCH IN THE OFFING ON THE HRRR OR NAM MODELS WITH A
FEW DABBLES MAINLY EAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OUR SOUNDING THIS
MORNING SHOWED A GOOD WARM UP ALOFT AND WILL DO MUCH TO KEEP A LID
ON CONVECTION COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE ENJOYED OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. WE CAN ONLY LOOK AHEAD TO THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MID
TO LATE WEEK TO KNOCK DOWN THE ALREADY BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. NO
CHANGES TO FORECAST HIGHS...JUST SOME ADDED CLOUDS FOR A BIT
LONGER AND A TAPERING OF POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAFS...MVFR AND LOW VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST LATE MORNING...THEN EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO LIFT AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME SCATTERED BETWEEN 19Z AND 22Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR
20 KTS. ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TODAY COMPARED TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ENDING BY 30/01Z. /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY DIVING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION FROM
THE NW THIS MORNING. CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART HAS BEEN
CONFINED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE AR WHERE BEST UPPER FORCING EXISTS.
CLOSER TO HOME...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS NE TX/NW LA BUT FORCING IS MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED
ACROSS AR THIS MORNING. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS ALL OF SW AR INTO SE OK FOR THIS MORNING ONLY...
TRANSITIONING POPS BACK DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE VARIETY FOR THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE THROUGH OUR REGION
TODAY...WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A REMNANT SHEAR AXIS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY BUT FORCING APPEARS TO BE ALL BUT ABSENT SO HAVE LEFT POPS
OUT OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AFTER TODAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY WILL BE WEAK UPPER RIDGING WHICH
WILL EXPAND FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY...EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE
RED RIVER VALLEY OF SE OK/SW AR AND INTO THE TENN VALLEY BY TUE.

THE RIDGE APPEARS TO BREAKDOWN SOMEWHAT BY MID WEEK AS ANOTHER
WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HEADS OUR WAY.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH AND
THE MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN IN DESCENT AGREEMENT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING THIS UPPER TROUGH
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND AREA WIDE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK AND WILL
LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY PERHAPS EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH WEAK RIDGING
EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER AFTER TODAY...EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE EARLY SUMMER SEASON THIS WEEK. MIDDLE 90S WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND GIVEN THE
MOIST DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY
REACH OR JUST EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS. BELIEVE WE
ARE STILL SOME 3-5 DEGREES ON THE HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR AN
ADVISORY HOWEVER IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  76  93  74  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
MLU  93  72  93  71  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
DEQ  91  73  93  69  93 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  91  75  92  74  93 /  20  10  10  10  10
ELD  91  72  92  71  93 /  20  10  10  10  10
TYR  93  76  93  75  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  93  76  93  74  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  93  77  95  75  95 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

 1115 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WARM AND MUGGY WITH LOW TO MID 80S AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. DEW
POINTS ARE HOLDING UNDER THE CLOUDS...BUT SHOULD DROP OFF A BIT
INTO THE AFTERNOON KEEPING US BELOW ANY MAJOR HEAT CONCERNS. THERE
IS JUST NOT MUCH IN THE OFFING ON THE HRRR OR NAM MODELS WITH A
FEW DABBLES MAINLY EAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OUR SOUNDING THIS
MORNING SHOWED A GOOD WARM UP ALOFT AND WILL DO MUCH TO KEEP A LID
ON CONVECTION COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE ENJOYED OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. WE CAN ONLY LOOK AHEAD TO THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MID
TO LATE WEEK TO KNOCK DOWN THE ALREADY BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. NO
CHANGES TO FORECAST HIGHS...JUST SOME ADDED CLOUDS FOR A BIT
LONGER AND A TAPERING OF POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/12Z TAFS...MVFR AND LOW VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST LATE MORNING...THEN EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO LIFT AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME SCATTERED BETWEEN 19Z AND 22Z. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR
20 KTS. ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TODAY COMPARED TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ENDING BY 30/01Z. /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS QUICKLY DIVING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION FROM
THE NW THIS MORNING. CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART HAS BEEN
CONFINED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NE AR WHERE BEST UPPER FORCING EXISTS.
CLOSER TO HOME...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS NE TX/NW LA BUT FORCING IS MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED
ACROSS AR THIS MORNING. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS ALL OF SW AR INTO SE OK FOR THIS MORNING ONLY...
TRANSITIONING POPS BACK DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE VARIETY FOR THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE THROUGH OUR REGION
TODAY...WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A REMNANT SHEAR AXIS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY BUT FORCING APPEARS TO BE ALL BUT ABSENT SO HAVE LEFT POPS
OUT OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AFTER TODAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH FOR MONDAY WILL BE WEAK UPPER RIDGING WHICH
WILL EXPAND FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY...EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE
RED RIVER VALLEY OF SE OK/SW AR AND INTO THE TENN VALLEY BY TUE.

THE RIDGE APPEARS TO BREAKDOWN SOMEWHAT BY MID WEEK AS ANOTHER
WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HEADS OUR WAY.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH AND
THE MEDIUM RANGE PROGS REMAIN IN DESCENT AGREEMENT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING THIS UPPER TROUGH
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND AREA WIDE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK AND WILL
LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY PERHAPS EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH WEAK RIDGING
EXPECTED TO TAKE OVER AFTER TODAY...EXPECT THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
OF THE EARLY SUMMER SEASON THIS WEEK. MIDDLE 90S WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND GIVEN THE
MOIST DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY
REACH OR JUST EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS. BELIEVE WE
ARE STILL SOME 3-5 DEGREES ON THE HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR AN
ADVISORY HOWEVER IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  76  93  74  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
MLU  93  72  93  71  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
DEQ  91  73  93  69  93 /  30  10  10  10  10
TXK  91  75  92  74  93 /  30  10  10  10  10
ELD  91  72  92  71  93 /  30  10  10  10  10
TYR  93  76  93  75  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  93  76  93  74  94 /  20  10  10  10  10
LFK  93  77  95  75  95 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 248 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP CLOSED LO
JUST SW OF LK WINNIPEG UPSTREAM OF UPR RDG SRETCHING FM HUDSON BAY
INTO THE SE CONUS. VIGOROUS SHRTWV LIFTING NNEWD THRU MN IN THE SLY
FLOW ALF BTWN THESE FEATURES AND ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC OVER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E/PWAT UP TO 1.70 INCHES /175 PCT
OF NORMAL/ IS CAUSING A BAND OF SHOWERS/TS FM WRN LK SUP SWD THRU
WRN UPR MI AND WI. OTHER ISOLD SHRA/TS HAVE FORMED OVER THE SCENTRAL
CWA TO THE E OF THE MAIN LINE OF SHRA/TS WHERE LATEST RUC SHOWS MORE
VIGOROUS H85 THETA E ADVCTN AND ANOTHER WEAKER SHRTWV IN ADVANCE OF
THE MAIN FEATURE. DESPITE THE RATHER VIGOROUS DYNAMIC FORCING...
FAIRLY SHARP NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN INTO THE MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS/WEAK DEEP LYR 0-6KM SHEAR GENERALLY NO GREATER THAN
20-25KTS/WEAK DOWNDRAFT CAPE HAS LIMITED THE INTENSITY OF THE TS.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHOWER/TS LINE.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS SHORT TERM PACKAGE INCLUDE SHOWER/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV IN MN EARLY THIS MRNG AND OTHER DISTURBANCES
ROTATING ARND MAIN CLOSED LO IN SRN CANADA.

EARLY THIS MRNG/TODAY...MN SHRTWV/ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC ARE PROGGED TO SWING NEWD THRU UPR MI/LK SUP INTO ONTARIO
EARLY THIS AFTN...GIVING WAY TO A PERIOD OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/
MID LVL DRYING. THE LATEST RUC AND THE BULK OF THE OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN WL OCCUR UNDER THE
BETTER FORCING AND CONTRIBUTE TO FALLING MUCAPES IN THE ABSENCE OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SUSPECT THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS/TS WL TEND TO
DIMINISH AS THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE NE THRU THE CWA. LIKE THE
AREA OF SHOWERS/TS THAT FORMED OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA EARLIER WELL IN
ADVANCE OF THE LARGER LINE OF SHOWERS...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS/SOME TS
TO DVLP E OF THE LARGER SCALE LINE WHERE H85 THETA E ADVCTN WL BE
MORE SUBSTANTIAL. THE 00Z CNDN MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON THIS EXPECTATION. ALL OF THESE SHOWERS/TS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NE
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING DYNAMICS THIS AFTN. NEXT CONCERN IS WHETHER
MORE SHRA/TS WL DVLP THIS AFTN WITH THE RETURN OF SOME CLRG
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE AXIS OF LOWER H85 THETA E AND THE
PSBL APRCH OF ANOTHER SHRTWV NOW MOVING E THRU SDAKOTA TO THE S OF
THE CLOSED LO. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW AN AREA OF H85 THETA E ADVCTN
REDVLPG LATER TODAY AT A TIME WHEN THIS SHRTWV WL BE APRCHG FM THE
W. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WL BE THE LARGER SCALE DRYING LEFT IN
THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE THAT IS FCST TO DROP PWAT CLOSE
TO AN INCH. WL GO NO HIER THAN LO CHC POPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY DESPITE
FCST STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES UP TO 7-7.5C/KM ENHANCED BY DAYTIME
HEATING THAT WL LIFT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FM THE COOLING
INFLUENCE OF LK MI.

TNGT...DISTURBANCE THAT MIGHT CAUSE SOME LATE DAY SHOWERS/TS WL
SHIFT TO THE NE LATER IN THE EVNG. MODELS THEN HINT ANOTHER STRONGER
SHRTWV/AREA OF DPVA AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL APRCH LATER AT
NGT. WENT WITH THE HIER POPS OVER THE SE CWA CLOSER TO AXIS OF HIER
H85 THETA E AND WHERE THE 12Z ECMWF CONSISTENT 00Z CNDN MODELS SHOW
THE HIER QPF. SINCE THE BULK OF THE MODELS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR
PERSISTING OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA WITH MEAN H85-5 RH AS LO AS
30-40 PCT...OPTED TO KEEP THESE AREAS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
CLOSE OFF TODAY AND BE NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT OVER LAKE
WINNIPEG. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ON MONDAY MORNING
BEFORE MERGING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER FAR NORTHERN
CANADA MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...IT WILL LEAVE A TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TRANSITION TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS OVER LAKE WINNIPEG MONDAY MORNING...THERE
LOOKS TO BE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE EXACT TRACK/TIMING OF
THESE WAVES HAVE BEEN VARYING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IT
APPEARS ONE WILL SHIFT THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY NIGHT.
THEN THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES...ALONG WITH A COLD
FRONT. PINNING DOWN THE TIMING/LOCATIONS OF THESE WAVES IS ALWAYS
DIFFICULT AND WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL LIKELY LINGER SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWA ON MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA.
THEN...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST TREND IS FOR THIS WAVE AND
SURFACE TROUGH TO KICK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN (FOLLOWING STORM MOTION AND FORWARD PROPAGATING
CORFIDI VECTORS). WHERE THAT DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WILL BE THE KEY TO
MONDAY NIGHTS FORECAST AND WITH THE TREND TOWARDS IT BEING FARTHER
SOUTH...HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN SOME OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING (KEEPING LIKELY VALUES RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND DIMINISHING CHANCES TO THE NORTHWEST). ALSO
FOR MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEST HALF WILL SEE BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS. HAVE TRENDED WINDS UP SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TREND TOWARDS
MORE SUN AND BETTER MIXING INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND HAVE
GUSTS TO 30KTS FOR THE WEST HALF/THIRD. IN ADDITION...WITH THE
TREND TOWARDS BETTER MIXING...THERE ARE INDICATIONS DEWPOINTS COULD
MIX OUT AND FALL LOWER THAN THE LOW/MID 50S CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST. MIXED LAYER DEWPOINT VALUES FROM THE MODELS ARE HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR VALUES TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S...BUT THINK A
LOT DEPENDS ON EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION. WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS...MIXING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S WOULD CREATE NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS (RH FALLING INTO UPPER 20S
ALTHOUGH THE WEST HAS SEEN THE MOST PRECIP LATELY)...SO WILL NEED TO
WATCH THAT POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT DAY.

BEHIND THE MONDAY EVENING WAVE...SHOULD GET A DRY PERIOD AS WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BUT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY SHOULD LEAD TO DIURNAL
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAND AREAS...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO HAVE TRENDED POPS UP
TO HIGH END CHANCES OVER THE AFTERNOON AND ATTEMPTED TO SHOW A RAMP
UP DURING THE MORNING. WITH ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 100-400 J/KG
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH DIURNAL HEATING LOST...THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SHOWER CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END.

EXPECT A MUCH COOLER PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
(FROM A HIGH IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS) NOSES EAST INTO THE
AREA. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTOLLING THINGS...WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR WED/THURS AND GENERALLY IN THE 60S. WILL
NEED TO WATCH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING
OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE TRENDED LOWS DOWN A
LITTLE...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE COLD SPOTS OUT
WEST APPROACH 40 OR EVEN UPPER 30S.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PULLING OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND THE
HIGH CENTER SHIFTING EAST INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR NO PRECIP ON THE 4TH
OF JULY DUE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE STILL OVER THE AREA.
THEREFORE...HAVE PULLED THE PRECIPITATION MENTION. CONFIDENCE
DECREASES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING
ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SINCE THE 00Z MODEL
RUNS ARE ONLY SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE...HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN
TO LOW END CHANCES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

VFR CEILINGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR W
LAKE SUPERIOR PUSHING NNE. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CLIP
CMX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDED VCTS/CB TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW
POTENTIAL. MORE THAN LIKELY THE CONVECTION WILL BE N OF THE AIRPORT.
STILL...DEEP MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD GIVE US GUSTS OF 20-27KTS
/STRONGEST AT IWD/. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER S WINDS OF 20-30KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY...STARTING AROUND DAYBREAK AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEARING SAW BY 16-18Z...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IT AT
THIS TIME AS THE BEST CHANCE IS WELL TO THE SE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

WARM/MOIST S WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FOG TO THE COOL WATERS OF
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 30KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...OUTSISE OF ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS LIKE THE ONES PUSHING THROUGH W LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON. A DEEP LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL
ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT...AND JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A TROUGH TO DEEPEN ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
N AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY TO PUSH A RIDGE INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR...BEFORE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ248.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

 140 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WE WILL SEE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL COME MONDAY
NIGHT AS A STRONG FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. SEVERAL FACTORS COMBINE TO LOWER THE THREAT FOR STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASED INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING
SHOWERS AND A COOLER WIND DRIVING INLAND OFF THE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. ALSO...DEEPER MOISTURE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
SWEEPING EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

ON THE UPSIDE HOWEVER IS A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE VORT SWEEPING EASTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THESE FEATURES WILL BE PRESSING INTO SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE WILL BE THAT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MODULATED BY A FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

HAVE SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST...30 PCT...TO COVER THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS AT THIS POINT. BUT...WITH HRRR SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE SHOWING THE FORECAST AREA DRY ALL THE WAY INTO
THE EVENING THINKING WE MAY STAY DRY. VERY LOW CHANCE POP SEEMS TO
BE THE WAY TO GO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST REMAINS ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE ARE LOOKING AT DECENT THREATS OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THIS
MORNING AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME PCPN POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WI AND IL EARLY
THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THERE HAVE BEEN
A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FORMED ACROSS OUR NW SECTIONS THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OUR
WAY. THE MAIN BAND OF PCPN HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD...HOWEVER
IT WILL HAVE A SOLID PUSH FROM A SHORT WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL IA. IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AS THE LLJ WEAKENS
ALSO. WE DO THINK MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME MEASURABLE RAIN FROM
THIS.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT REALLY A CONCERN WITH THIS BAND AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS NON-EXISTENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STILL RELATIVELY
WEAK AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. THIS BAND COULD RE-IGNITE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS BETTER INSTABILITY. THIS WILL TAKE PLACE WELL
EAST OF OUR AREA...SO IT IS NOT REALLY A CONCERN AT THIS TIME. WE
CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER/STORM POPPING THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WE
WILL BE UNDER SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH.

WE SHOULD SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PCPN FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT WE WILL SEE SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH A 30+ KNOT LLJ
THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA MON MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A
THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS...HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY INITIALLY TO WORK WITH.

THE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ON MON AFTERNOON ONCE ANY
INITIAL PCPN DISSIPATE IN THE MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
WE SHOULD BECOME SOMEWHAT CAPPED BY AFTERNOON THAT WILL REMAIN THE
CASE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IF WE GET SOME KIND OF BOUNDARY
TO DEVELOP /I.E. LAKE BREEZE/SHADOW...ETC.../ WE COULD POP A STORM.

THE MUCH BETTER CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME MON NIGHT AFTER
SUNSET. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IS ROTATING A SHORT WAVE
FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND AROUND THE UNDERSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WAVE AND JET STREAK TO OUR NORTH WILL
HELP TO RAMP UP A 50+ KT LLJ MON EVENING. THE NOSE OF IT WILL BE
NORTH OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH THE JET
STREAK WILL RESIDE. WE WILL STILL HAVE STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA HERE THROUGH CENTERED AROUND 06Z. ML CAPES
ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD UP AROUND 1500 J/KG OVERNIGHT WITH THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WHICH USUALLY INDICATES A BETTER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT NIGHT. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WOULD SUPPORT A
MAINLY WIND THREAT. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT THE CAPE IN THE
-10 TO -30C LAYER IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO A BIG THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A BIGGER THREAT /PLEASE SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW/.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWFA TUE MORNING...SHUTTING OFF POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS. WE WILL SEE SOME POSSIBLE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/SRN FLANK
OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT MOVE OVER THE NRN COUNTIES TUE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD NOT BE A BIG DEAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

NO REAL IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. THE FOURTH OF JULY LOOKS DRY
AND COOL. THE CANADIAN SFC HIGH IS SLOWER IN ARRIVING THAN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING YESTERDAY AS CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CENTRAL CANADA TAKES A BIT LONGER TO OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. THEN FAIR AND COOL IS THE RULE INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WSW
WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND 15 KNOTS...BUT
WILL DIMINISH 23-01Z.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER UPPER WAVE THAT COULD TRIGGER SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE TIME FRAME ON THIS
SHOULD BE FROM ABOUT 09Z TO 15Z FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE COULD
ALSO BE MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WITH THIS WAVE IN THE SAME TIME
FRAME. BREEZY SSW WINDS WILL RESUME 11-12Z AND CONTINUE INTO MID
DAY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

WINDS AND WAVES CAME UP THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES WERE GENERALLY IN THE
2-4 FOOT RANGE...BUT FOR A TIME THEY BUILT TO AROUND 4 FEET. HELD
OFF ON A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...AS THE WAVES ARE FORECAST TO
TAPER BACK INTO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THE CORE OF THE HIGHER WAVES OCCURRED BEFORE THE MAIN
BEACH TIME. ALSO...WHERE THE HIGHEST WAVES WERE/ARE OCCURRING
DENSE FOG IS PLAGUING THE BEACHES KEEPING BEACH POPULATION DOWN.
LUDINGTON BUOY IS CURRENTLY UNDER 4 FEET WITH PORT SHELDON UNDER 3
FEET. BOTTOM LINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...EXPECTING
SOUTHWEST 15-20 KNOT WINDS WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WAVES IN THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE. A MODERATE SWIM HAZARD RISK THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

ISSUED A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM HOLLAND NORTH. HIGHER DEW
POINT AIR IS ADVECTING OVER THE COOLER MID LAKE WATERS AND
AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN ZONES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. RAN THIS ADVISORY
THROUGH 10AM TOMORROW AS CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT.
WE MAY MIX A LITTLE DRIER AIR INTO THE ENVIRONMENT THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF IMPROVEMENT...BUT IT
SHOULD FOG BACK IN TONIGHT IF IT LIFTS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OCCUR ON MONDAY
NIGHT. WE EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
TODAY...HOWEVER THEY WILL COME IN EARLY ENOUGH THAT A LACK OF
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THEIR STRENGTH. SOME LOCAL HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER IT SHOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD
PROBLEM.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AS STRONG FORCING AND A FAIR
AMOUNT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES BY
MON NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAIN TO BE LIKELY. HEAVIEST RAIN
TOTALS LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSER TO WHERE THE MOISTURE
AND FORCING COINCIDE MUCH BETTER.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ846>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...DUKE







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

 1233 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WE WILL SEE PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL COME MONDAY
NIGHT AS A STRONG FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR MID WEEK ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. SEVERAL FACTORS COMBINE TO LOWER THE THREAT FOR STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASED INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING
SHOWERS AND A COOLER WIND DRIVING INLAND OFF THE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. ALSO...DEEPER MOISTURE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
SWEEPING EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

ON THE UPSIDE HOWEVER IS A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE VORT SWEEPING EASTWARD OUT OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THESE FEATURES WILL BE PRESSING INTO SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE WILL BE THAT INSTABILITY
WILL BE MODULATED BY A FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

HAVE SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST...30 PCT...TO COVER THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS AT THIS POINT. BUT...WITH HRRR SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE SHOWING THE FORECAST AREA DRY ALL THE WAY INTO
THE EVENING THINKING WE MAY STAY DRY. VERY LOW CHANCE POP SEEMS TO
BE THE WAY TO GO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST REMAINS ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE ARE LOOKING AT DECENT THREATS OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THIS
MORNING AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME PCPN POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WI AND IL EARLY
THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THERE HAVE BEEN
A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FORMED ACROSS OUR NW SECTIONS THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OUR
WAY. THE MAIN BAND OF PCPN HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD...HOWEVER
IT WILL HAVE A SOLID PUSH FROM A SHORT WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL IA. IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AS THE LLJ WEAKENS
ALSO. WE DO THINK MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME MEASURABLE RAIN FROM
THIS.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT REALLY A CONCERN WITH THIS BAND AS DIURNAL
INSTABILITY IS NON-EXISTENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STILL RELATIVELY
WEAK AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. THIS BAND COULD RE-IGNITE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS BETTER INSTABILITY. THIS WILL TAKE PLACE WELL
EAST OF OUR AREA...SO IT IS NOT REALLY A CONCERN AT THIS TIME. WE
CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER/STORM POPPING THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WE
WILL BE UNDER SHORT WAVE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH.

WE SHOULD SEE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PCPN FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT WE WILL SEE SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH A 30+ KNOT LLJ
THAT WILL BE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA MON MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A
THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS...HOWEVER ONCE AGAIN NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY INITIALLY TO WORK WITH.

THE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ON MON AFTERNOON ONCE ANY
INITIAL PCPN DISSIPATE IN THE MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
WE SHOULD BECOME SOMEWHAT CAPPED BY AFTERNOON THAT WILL REMAIN THE
CASE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IF WE GET SOME KIND OF BOUNDARY
TO DEVELOP /I.E. LAKE BREEZE/SHADOW...ETC.../ WE COULD POP A STORM.

THE MUCH BETTER CHC FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME MON NIGHT AFTER
SUNSET. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IS ROTATING A SHORT WAVE
FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND AROUND THE UNDERSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WAVE AND JET STREAK TO OUR NORTH WILL
HELP TO RAMP UP A 50+ KT LLJ MON EVENING. THE NOSE OF IT WILL BE
NORTH OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH THE JET
STREAK WILL RESIDE. WE WILL STILL HAVE STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA HERE THROUGH CENTERED AROUND 06Z. ML CAPES
ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD UP AROUND 1500 J/KG OVERNIGHT WITH THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION...WHICH USUALLY INDICATES A BETTER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT NIGHT. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WOULD SUPPORT A
MAINLY WIND THREAT. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT THE CAPE IN THE
-10 TO -30C LAYER IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO A BIG THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A BIGGER THREAT /PLEASE SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW/.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWFA TUE MORNING...SHUTTING OFF POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS. WE WILL SEE SOME POSSIBLE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/SRN FLANK
OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT MOVE OVER THE NRN COUNTIES TUE AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD NOT BE A BIG DEAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

NO REAL IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED. THE FOURTH OF JULY LOOKS DRY
AND COOL. THE CANADIAN SFC HIGH IS SLOWER IN ARRIVING THAN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING YESTERDAY AS CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CENTRAL CANADA TAKES A BIT LONGER TO OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. THEN FAIR AND COOL IS THE RULE INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING BUT THERE ARE SOME LOW
CLOUDS AROUND WITH BASES AROUND 1000 TO 2000 FEET AGL. A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

WINDS AND WAVES CAME UP THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES WERE GENERALLY IN THE
2-4 FOOT RANGE...BUT FOR A TIME THEY BUILT TO AROUND 4 FEET. HELD
OFF ON A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...AS THE WAVES ARE FORECAST TO
TAPER BACK INTO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THE CORE OF THE HIGHER WAVES OCCURRED BEFORE THE MAIN
BEACH TIME. ALSO...WHERE THE HIGHEST WAVES WERE/ARE OCCURRING
DENSE FOG IS PLAGUING THE BEACHES KEEPING BEACH POPULATION DOWN.
LUDINGTON BUOY IS CURRENTLY UNDER 4 FEET WITH PORT SHELDON UNDER 3
FEET. BOTTOM LINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...EXPECTING
SOUTHWEST 15-20 KNOT WINDS WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WAVES IN THE 2 TO
4 FOOT RANGE. A MODERATE SWIM HAZARD RISK THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.

ISSUED A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM HOLLAND NORTH. HIGHER DEW
POINT AIR IS ADVECTING OVER THE COOLER MID LAKE WATERS AND
AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN ZONES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. RAN THIS ADVISORY
THROUGH 10AM TOMORROW AS CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT.
WE MAY MIX A LITTLE DRIER AIR INTO THE ENVIRONMENT THIS
AFTERNOON...SO THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF IMPROVEMENT...BUT IT
SHOULD FOG BACK IN TONIGHT IF IT LIFTS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OCCUR ON MONDAY
NIGHT. WE EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
TODAY...HOWEVER THEY WILL COME IN EARLY ENOUGH THAT A LACK OF
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THEIR STRENGTH. SOME LOCAL HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER IT SHOULD NOT BE A WIDESPREAD
PROBLEM.

THE MAIN PROBLEM WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AS STRONG FORCING AND A FAIR
AMOUNT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS/STORMS. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES BY
MON NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR HEAVY RAIN TO BE LIKELY. HEAVIEST RAIN
TOTALS LOOK TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSER TO WHERE THE MOISTURE
AND FORCING COINCIDE MUCH BETTER.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ846>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...DUKE






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

 345 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.DISSCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE WAS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE MID SOUTH HAS FINALLY
SHIFTED EAST...BUT THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST
ZONES. SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY. THE RUC CARRIED RAIN INTO THE NIGHT
AND EXTENDED INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES. HOWEVER...THE LOCAL WRF AND THE
REST OF THE MODELS KEPT THE ACTIVITY NORTH. THE GFS CAME IN WITH LOW
POPS FOR THE CWA TONIGHT. BASED ON WHAT`S HAPPENING...DECIDED TO
STICK WITH GUIDANCE. WENT WITH A PRE FIRST PERIOD TO KEEP THE MENTION
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO END WITH THE LOSS OF THE SUN.

GUIDANCE SEEMED GOOD. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWER 70S
WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH MID WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100 OR
THE LOWER 100S. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GOOD SUBSIDENCE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SO THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH SURFACE MOISTURE
WILL HANG AROUND. DRY CONDITIONS HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT DROP INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING SMALL RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA.

NO REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE AREA WILL GET A SHORT BREAK FROM
THE RAIN...BUT THE HEAT WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING TODAY WITH LESS CONVECTION
AROUND TO AFFECT TAF SITES. THAT BEING SAID...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR(KGLH/KGWO/KGTR).  THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG...AGAIN REDUCING
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES TO IFR/MVFR CATEGORIES...ARE AGAIN
EXPECTED TOWARDS DAY BREAK MONDAY MORNING. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO
LIGHT TO CALM AT MOST SITES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. /28/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  94  73  95 /   4   3   4   7
MERIDIAN      70  96  69  98 /   4  14   4   7
VICKSBURG     71  92  71  94 /   3   3   4   8
HATTIESBURG   72  95  72  96 /   4  11   9   8
NATCHEZ       73  90  72  92 /   4   3   7   6
GREENVILLE    75  93  73  95 /   5   3   4   9
GREENWOOD     73  93  72  95 /   6   4   4   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

07/28/






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 356 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IS THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN.

AFTER MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ROLLED THROUGH PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN IOWA...ATMOSPHERE HAD STABILIZED FOR A TIME INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER LINGERING CLOUD COVER HAS EVAPORATED...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE 80S MANY SPOTS. THIS
COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND SOME COOLING ALOFT HAS
PRODUCED SURFACE-BASED CAPES EXCEEDING 3500 J/KG. 18Z SOUNDING AT
KOAX SHOWED 3692 J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE WITH ALMOST NO
INHIBITION. LAYER SHEAR...0-6KM...WAS 34KT...AND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. HOWEVER OUR 18Z SOUNDING SHOWS
LIFTING A MIXED-LAYER PARCEL YIELDS ONLY 1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND
INHIBITION RUNNING OVER 100. THUS MAY HAVE TO WAIT A WHILE BEFORE
CINH GOES AWAY AND HIGH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED. A FEW AREAS OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION WERE NOTED AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT NONE ARE
SHOWING SIGNS OF GROWING AT THE MOMENT. MOST LIKELY AREA OF
INITIATION FOR MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE
SETTING UP FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE COLUMBUS...FREMONT AND
MISSOURI VALLEY AREAS. ENHANCED CUMULUS FIELD WAS STARTING TO EXPAND
HERE...WITH WEAK AREA OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AS PER RAP 19Z
INITIALIZATION. OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM MORNING
STORMS COULD ALSO FOCUS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE STORMS DO FIRE
THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT RAPID DEVELOPMENT TOWARD STRONG/SEVERE
LEVELS IN HIGH INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT. ORIENTATION OF LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS SUGGEST SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS WHICH SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SUGGEST MCS DEVELOPMENT
WITH PROPAGATION TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. EXPECT A HAIL AND
TORNADO THREAT WITH EARLY CONVECTION...THEN EVOLVING INTO A
HAIL...WIND AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING.

EXPECT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA BY LATE
EVENING. THEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ROLLING OUT OF WESTERN KANSAS
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE LIFT OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN IOWA MONDAY MORNING.
LINGERING HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES POINT TO A
POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY STORMS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SLOW-
MOVING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIMP SOUTH THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH WAVES RIPPLING
ALONG FRONT POINT TO REPEATED DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
UNTIL FRONT CLEARS OUR SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY.

AFTER FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING...WILL
CONTINUE OUR DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THEN A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN ENHANCED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR SOUTH AS OMAHA. THESE
SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND END AT SUNSET. TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER
AS 850 TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS...THEN EVEN COOLER
WEDNESDAY WITH 850 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MANY HIGHS BOTH DAYS
SHOULD HOLD IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY INTO THURSDAY...TAKING STORM TRACK TO OUR
NORTH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ONLY SLOWLY RECOVERING 850
TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW 80 THEN. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN
ROLL INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO OUR AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE SOME STORMS FIRE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL FIREWORKS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GFS SHOWS SYSTEM EXITING TO THE SOUTH
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE MAY BE A BIT FAST. THUS WILL CONTINUE
SMALL RAIN CHANCES INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS TAF CYCLE. LIFR
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO TAKE PLACE INCREASING INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. DID
INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS FOR THIS AT BOTH KOMA AND KLNK. DID LEAVE
THE MENTION OUT AT KOFK AS UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KERN




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 255 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING STABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY. COOL WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  CONVECTION CHANCES TO HEADLINE
THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION.  KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
OF POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE ATMOSPHERE
HAS UNDERGONE STRONG DESTABILIZATION...WITH THE OPERATIONAL RAP AND
LATEST LAPS DATA GENERATING UPWARDS OF 3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WITH OPTIMAL DEEP SHEAR
IN PLACE...STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS...ARE ANTICIPATED TO FORM.
A SIGNIFICANT -10 TO -30C CONTRIBUTION TO THE CAPE /CLOSING ON A
1000 J/KG/ WOULD SUPPORT SOME LARGE HAIL.  THE LATEST NEAR TERM
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS GENERATES THE PROJECTED ACTIVITY WELL TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA...BUT RECENT SATELLITE OBS INDICATE OTHERWISE
WITH THE FORMATION OF A AGITATED CU FIELD ACROSS CUSTER COUNTY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.  WEST OF THIS
AREA...INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE CAPE DECREASES RAPIDLY...ONLY
ISOLATED GENERAL STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...INCREASINGLY RICH THETA-E BUILDS BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF A LLJ.  THE THREAT OF STORMS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...TO MID 60S ACROSS THE EAST.

SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR MONDAY WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY.  HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S SHOULD PREVAIL.  LINGERING POST FRONTAL STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT BY
AFTERNOON THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFF TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A REINFORCING CANADIAN COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PRECEDING PACIFIC COLD FRONT SUPPORTS
LOWS IN THE 50S TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE ABOUT 5F
COLDER FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR COOLER LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THE MODELS SHOW 850MB-700MB CLOUDS WRAPPING
SOUTH AROUND A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS ONTARIO.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE IN PLACE TUESDAY WITH COLD AIR MOVING IN
ALOFT. H700MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO 6C TO 10C AND HIGHS RISE TO ONLY
70 NORTH. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH TUESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ALSO.

THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES OFF EAST WEDNESDAY FOR HIGHS 75 TO 80 WITH
NEARLY FULL SUN AND LIGHT WINDS...A COMPLETE REVERSE OF TUESDAYS
WIND...CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT PRODUCING 20 TO 25 MPH SLY RETURN FLOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE WARMING TREND IS SLOWER GIVEN THE STRONGER PUSH OF
CANADIAN AIR TUESDAY FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...INSTABILITY INCREASES IN THE
ECM...GFS AND GEM MODELS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. IF WINDS ALOFT
CAN REMAIN STRONG AS SHOWN THE GEM AND GFS SOLNS THEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THURSDAY
AND BEYOND. THE ECM BUILDS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRONGLY
PRODUCING WEAK WINDS ALOFT. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS AND
INCLUDES ISOLATED POPS WHICH FITS THE CLASSIC JULY NORTHWEST FLOW
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

PREVAILING VFR IS ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER STORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING ERRATIC WIND...ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET FORMS ATOP THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME...SO
WILL FORGO A MENTION IN THE OFFICIAL TAFS FOR VTN AND LBF WITH THE
18Z ISSUANCE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...JACOBS






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND LONGWAVE RIDGING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET ENERGY
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND THEN NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 75KTS
NEAR 34000FT AGL PER 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT
WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE
LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE IS ALSO NOTED EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN COLORADO. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH AS A RESULT.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS...MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES REGION LATER TODAY. A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TODAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW OVER OUR AREA WHICH SHOULD INCREASE INTENSITY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THIS LOW MAY BEGIN TO MAKE A PUSH EAST TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW DOES THE SAME. AS A RESULT...THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR WEST SHOULD REMAIN IN THE SAME
POSITION TODAY INTO MUCH OF TONIGHT...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE
PERHAPS SNEAKING INTO OUR FAR WEST/NORTHWESTERN CWA TOWARDS
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE RESULTANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD
ACROSS OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS OUR FAR
WEST/NORTHWEST WHICH COULD TURN MORE NORTHERLY TOWARDS 12Z MONDAY
IF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE CAN MOVE AS FAR EAST AS CURRENTLY INDICATED
BY GUIDANCE.

FOR THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS ALONG THE AXIS OF A ~40KT
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
ALTHOUGH OFF BY A FEW HOURS...SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE HRRR
HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTION AND SUGGESTS IT WILL
PROPAGATE NORTHEAST SOME LATER THIS MORNING AND IMPACT SEVERAL OF
OUR KANSAS COUNTIES. THE HRRR...4KM WRF-NMM...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE 1KM WRF-NMM...ALSO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE REALIZED OVER WESTERN OR CENTRAL NEBRASKA
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS SHIFTS
NORTHEAST MORE INTO OUR AREA. QPF FIELDS FROM VARIOUS
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SEEM OVERDONE...BUT MANY OF THEM ALSO
INDICATE ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING...WITH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 0.25" ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA 12-18Z TODAY. FAR TOO MANY INDICATIONS OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO IGNORE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AS TO WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY BE REALIZED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
UNTIL 15Z. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS WILL
DECREASE IN INTENSITY POST SUNRISE AND AS A RESULT...CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH AS WELL. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA 15-21Z. THAT BEING SAID...THIS WILL ALL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED THIS MORNING...WITH AN INCREASE IN
POPS LIKELY NEEDED IF/WHEN CONVECTION IS REALIZED OVER THE
AREA...AND A TEMPORAL INCREASE IN POPS PAST 15Z POSSIBLY NEEDED IF
CONVECTION MANAGES TO LINGER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.
FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP SUGGEST ANY MORNING
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA WILL LIKELY BE ROOTED TO AROUND 700MB AND
LIKELY ONLY HAVE ~500J/KG OF POTENTIAL ENERGY TO WORK WITH. GIVEN
THIS...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITH MORNING
CONVECTION.

ONCE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS DIMINISHES LASTER THIS
MORNING...THERE REALLY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SUBSTANTIAL
FORCING MECHANISMS ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE ENHANCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONVERGENCE
AND LIFT ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...BUT
AGAIN THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF OUR CWA UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE ON MONDAY. ALSO...THERE COULD BE A SUBTLE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATION TRAVELING WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW WHICH
COULD PROVIDE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED OMEGA OVER THE AREA...BUT AGAIN
GUIDANCE DOES NOT PROVIDE ANY SUBSTANTIAL SIGNAL OF THIS
OCCURRING. FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS DO SUGGEST HOWEVER...IF FULL DIABATIC HEATING IS
ACHIEVED TODAY...THAT NEARLY ALL CIN COULD BE ERASED BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE
REACHED...PRIMARILY THROUGH LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. FARTHER
WEST...THESE SAME FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WARMER
TEMPERATURE READINGS NEAR 700MB AND RESULTANT HIGHER CIN VALUES
WILL MAKE CONVECTIVE INITIATION MORE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE. AS
ALREADY MENTIONED HOWEVER...FULL DIABATIC HEATING WOULD LIKELY
NEED TO BE ACHIEVED TO MEET CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE READINGS
FARTHER EAST...AND THERE IS A CHANCE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
FROM MORNING CONVECTION COULD PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO REACHING
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE READINGS. ITS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 4KM WRF-NMM SHOWS NOTHING OVER OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT BEING SAID...QPF FIELDS FROM
MULTIPLE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO SUGGEST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN CWA. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS ACROSS THE
CWA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DID NOT GO ANY
HIGHER THAN A ~20% POP FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CIN VALUES...BUT FARTHER EAST WHERE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE
ACHIEVED...WENT AHEAD WITH 30-40% POPS ACROSS THE AREA. A COUPLE
IMPORTANT NOTES...THESE POPS WILL PROVE TO BE WELL OVERDONE IF
MORNING CONVECTION PROVIDES TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPTIATION. BUT...IF SO MUCH AS ONE STORM CAN FIRE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTANT OUTFLOW COULD RESULT IN MULTIPLE
STORMS INITIATING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING THUS RESULTING
IN A POP FORECAST WHICH IS UNDERDONE. UNFORTUNATELY IT IS UNLIKELY
WELL KNOW THE ANSWER UNTIL STORMS DO (OR DO NOT) INITIATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT CLOSE EVALUATION OF THE
SITUATION WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
HIGH VOLATILITY OF THE TROPOSPHERE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENHANCED
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL HELP PROMOTE 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES
OF 2000-4000J/KG ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ENERGY EXISTING ACROSS OUR
EAST/SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
40-50KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN EXISTENCE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY DEEP
CONVECTION THAT IS REALIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 0-1KM SRH
VALUES DO NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE PER THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS...BUT ALL BETS ARE OFF IF/WHEN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
INTRODUCED ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THIS...WILL ALSO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POST-SUNSET TONIGHT
AS DIABATIC HEATING IS LOST. THAT BEING SAID...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
40-45KT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND NOSE INTO OUR
AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THEN POSSIBLE HEADING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH
20-40% POPS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.
FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SUGGEST ANY CONVECTION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE ROOTED TO AROUND
800MB AND HAVE ~2000J/KG OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.
GIVEN THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE A MENTION OF LARGE HAIL IN
THE HWO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

ALOFT: A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE OFFING NEXT WEEK
AND THIS MEANS A BREAK FROM A DRENCHING JUNE THAT HAS PUT A
SIGNIFICANT DENT IN THE DROUGHT OVER S-CNTRL NEB. JUNE HAS BEEN A
VERY WET MONTH DUE TO PERSISTENT BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE WRN
USA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC INFO STATEMENT /PNS/ POSTED ON
OUR WEBSITE FOR WHERE GRI/HSI RANK FOR THE WETTEST JUNE`S ON
RECORD. GFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MULTI-DAY 500 MB MEANS FOR DAYS 1-5
AND THEN 6-10 INDICATE A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER WRN N
AMERICA...FORCING LONGWAVE AMPLIFICATION. THE MEAN TROF WILL
PROGRESS E INTO THE CNTRL USA THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE ERN USA BY DAY 6. WHILE HIGH TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN HOT...A
COOLDOWN IS SLATED TUE-THU WITH WED BEING THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
FCST WITH HIGHS MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL /AT LEAST 10F/. BY NEXT
WEEKEND A SPELL OF SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL ARRIVE.

AS FOR THE SHORTWAVES...THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES IS ESSENTIALLY TRAPPED UNTIL AMPLIFICATION
BEGINS. THIS LOW WILL MAKE A LOOP TODAY-MON AND THEN OPEN UP AND
HEAD E TUE AS THE WRN RIDGE BUILDS. A TRAILING TROF WILL SLIP THRU
THE CNTRL PLAINS TUE. NW FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN ITS WAKE WED-
THU WITH RISING HEIGHTS AS THE RIDGE MOVES E. A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
IS THEN FCST TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

SURFACE: THE STALLED FRONT THAT CURRENTLY BISECTS NEB FROM SW-NE
WILL MOVE LITTLE THRU DAYBREAK MON. IT WILL BECOME MOBILE THOUGH
MON AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND IT SHOULD BE JUST S AND E OF THE
FCST AREA BY SUNSET. A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU
TUE AS CANADIAN HIGH PRES SURGES S INTO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
WED. AS IT HEADS INTO THE ERN USA THU-FRI...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
ALONG WITH A NEW LEE-SIDE TROF. THIS SETUP WILL CONT INTO SAT.

A 40-30-30 BLEND OF THE 12Z/18Z/00Z CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL
GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR WIND GUSTS...DEWPOINTS AND QPF...AND HIGH
TEMPS TUE- THU. CONSENSUS OF 00Z MOS WAS USED FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS/DIR.

HAZARDS: TSTMS WILL BE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL NEB MON
MORNING. MUCAPE IS FCST AS HIGH AS 4000 J/KG WITH 40-50 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE STORMS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE ELEVATED. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR DO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE HAIL. THE REST OF THE WEEK...NOTHING UNTIL POSSIBLE TSTM
ACTIVITY RE-ENTERS THE PICTURE FRI NIGHT-SAT.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

MON: SREF QPF PROBABILITIES OFFER HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT AN MCS
WILL BE ON-GOING TO START THE DAY OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN NEB.
THIS MCS WILL DEPART TO THE E. AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY THE COLD POOL
SHOULD SEE A PRETTY NICE DAY /S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES/. RESIDUAL
CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE MCS COULD SPOIL MUCH OF THE DAY FROM THE
TRI-CITIES N AND E. BREEZY N WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUE: SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT MON NIGHT. WHILE MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND S OF I-70...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE SOME ANVIL RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER COULD CREEP
INTO OUR N-CNTRL KS COUNTIES. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS COULD
SPREAD SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AS FAR N AS HWY 6 DURING THE DAY
TUE.

THE UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW DIURNAL SHWRS N
OF I-80. BREEZY OVER S-CNTRL NEB.

WED: SUNNY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL BUT WONDERFULLY REFRESHING. THIS
WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO TURN OFF THE A/C AND LET SOME FRESH AIR
INSIDE. 850 MB TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY FCST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL ON THE SREF/GFS ENSEMBLES. THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE
GEM OFFER HIGHS 65-75F. THE 00Z RUNS OF GEM AND GFS OFFER 70F FOR
A HIGH AT GRI. IF THAT OCCURS...WED WOULD BE ONE OF THE TOP 5
COOLEST JULY 2ND`S ON RECORD. THE LAST 3 CYCLES OF MEX MOS HAS
DROPPED HIGHS AT GRI FROM 83 TO 78 TO 73. COORDINATED WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS.

WE MAY NEED TO ADD A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF SHWR IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER S-CNTRL NEB. THE 12Z/00Z EC STILL HAVE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR HEALTHY CU AND POTENTIAL SHWR ACTIVITY.

THU: THE TEMP RECOVERY BEGINS...BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN NORMAL. STILL A VERY NICE DAY. RETURN FLOW BEGINS ADVECTING
THE POOL OF RICH MOISTURE BACK N IN ADVANCE OF THE LEE TROF.

FRI: BREEZY AND WARMER WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL /85-90F/.

FRI NIGHT-SAT: WE START FLIRTING WITH NIGHTTIME TSTM INITIATION
AND MCS ACTIVITY. SAT IS LOOKING HOT AWAY FROM ANY TSTM COOL POOLS
AND CLOUD DEBRIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BUT MOST OF THEM SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE
TERMINAL AREA SO WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...JCB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 1228 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING...HAD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING SWD INTO THE OZARKS. LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW EXTENDED WEST
TO THE PACIFIC COAST...WHILE EAST OF THE LOW...A RIDGE EXTENDED
UP THE EASTERN CONUS INTO SRN HUDSON BAY. WV IMAGERY AS OF 230 AM
CDT...HAS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SWRN MANITOBA WITH A NICE
SHORTWAVE OVER NRN SD...WITH CONVECTION NOTED OVER FAR NRN
NEBRASKA AND THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SANDHILLS. ADDTL SUPPORT FOR
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LIES WITH A NICE JET
STREAK...VISIBLE ON CURRENT WV IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTH INTO
NERN NEBRASKA...THEN SW INTO SWRN NEBRASKA...OR ROUGHLY ALONG A
LINE FROM WATERTOWN SOUTH DAKOTA...TO ONEILL NEBRASKA...TO JUST
WEST OF MCCOOK NEBRASKA. VERY MOIST AIR WAS PRESENT EAST OF THIS
FEATURE...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. WEST OF THE FEATURE...DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE 50S WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES AS
OF 3 AM CDT...RANGED FROM 61 AT THEDFORD AND VALENTINE...TO 66 AT
BROKEN BOW...OGALLALA AND IMPERIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS. FOR TODAY...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS FOR INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING. AS IT
STANDS RIGHT NOW...THE LATEST HRRR MODEL...DOES LINGER SOME
CONVECTION IN EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE
MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE
HRRR IS TOO SLOW WITH PCPN EXITING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL END PCPN IN THE EAST BY MID
MORNING. LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING AND THE
APPROACH OF A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE INVOF OF THE BEFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH. ATTM...AM EXPECTING THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE LITTLE
TODAY...SO LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM O`NEILL TO EAST
OF NORTH PLATTE...WILL BE UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS....ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE CAPES WILL REACH 3000 TO 4000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
ATTM...LARGE HAIL SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA PER DECENT CAPES IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FURTHER WEST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE CAPE DECREASES QUICKLY...SO
ONLY A GENERAL THREAT FOR STORMS EXISTS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 80S IN THE NORTH AND EAST...WHERE BL MOISTURE IS
GREATEST...TO AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE DRIER BL CONDS
EXIST. FOR TONIGHT...THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE LATEST NAM SOLN...REGENERATES
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT INVOF THE NOSE OF AN
H85 LLJET AND WILL INCLUDE THIS FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 183. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE
WEST TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN THE EAST. THESE WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN GUIDANCE...TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED CLOUDINESS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

COOLER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY. LINGERING
POST FRONTAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY OVER
EASTERN ZONES. BY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WELL TO THE EAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S...POSSIBLY MID 80S IN
FAR SW NEB. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL HELP TO RADIATE
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ROTATES AROUND AN ONTARIO LOW
FOR TUESDAY. EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND EVEN SOME
SHOWERS. THE ADDED CLOUDS WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 70S.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND FOR TEMPS THE LAST 3
RUNS...ALTHOUGH DID NOT DROP AS FAR AS LATEST GUIDANCE CAME IN
WITH. IF SKIES BECOME CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...EVEN WITH AN EARLY JULY HIGH SUN ANGLE...TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA FOR THURSDAY.
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS AND AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S WITH DEW PTS AROUND 60.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO THE LOWER LEVELS. FORECAST IS DRY FOR NOW
WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWER TO RETURN.

LL JET THURSDAY WILL HELP TO INCREASE MID TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER
INCLUSION ON THE NOSE OF THE JET. BETTER SHOWERS ARRIVES FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL CAUSE NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING SE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS
THE TREND FROM JUNE CONTINUES INTO JULY...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
RISE...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SEASONAL
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

PREVAILING VFR IS ANTICIPATED FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER STORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING ERRATIC WIND...ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET FORMS ATOP THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME...SO
WILL FORGO A MENTION IN THE OFFICIAL TAFS FOR VTN AND LBF WITH THE
18Z ISSUANCE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 427 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LOSE INFLUENCE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
WEATHER TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN WARM TEMPERATURES
AND RISING DEWPOINTS THROUGH MID WEEK. IT WILL ALSO BE TURNING
MORE UNSETTLED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE BETWEEN A SFC
ANTICYCLONE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND A
POTENT CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. AFTERNOON VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF DIURNAL CUMULUS WHOSE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT
IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY AN AMPLIFIED MID- LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN
PLACE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TAKING PLACE TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW YORK IN
A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AIDED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN MICHIGAN. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT THAT CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. RAP ANALYSES SHOW SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY THERE CURRENTLY...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED AS NIGHTFALL PROGRESSES.
OPTED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 03-12Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDINESS BUT A DRY EVENING FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

FIRST OF WHAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A FEW RATHER MUGGY NIGHTS
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S - WITH UPPER 60S MORE LIKELY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...WARM AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL
ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD /AND INTO MID WEEK AS WELL/. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH TUESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME APPARENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS WELL...THOUGH THERE STILL ARE SOME
QUESTIONS ON OVERALL COVERAGE AND STRENGTH.

ON MONDAY...WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDER TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAY...ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS BY MID-MORNING...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT
LATER IN THE DAY. OPTED FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. MORE CLOUDS THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL TEND TO KEEP INSTABILITY ON THE LOW SIDE. THOUGH 850 MB
TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO AROUND +16C...THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY (LOWER TO MID 80S). LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 60S.

FOR TUESDAY...TODAY`S GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
SLOWER ON TUESDAY WITH APPROACH OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM POTENT UPPER
MIDWEST LOW. DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS IN VERY WARM
LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/CAPPING (+23 AT 925 MB AND NEAR +10C AT
700 MB). A NUMBER OF GUIDANCE ALSO TAPS INTO A POTENTIALLY
UNSTABLE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM THE MIDWEST WITH STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES TO ITS STRENGTH
AND TIMING. WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO BE STRENGTHENING TO THE POINT
WHERE WIND SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION TO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN GET GOING. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE POSSIBLE...BUT FORCING IS A QUESTION MARK ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
PROGGED STRENGTH OF THE CAPPING INVERSION. I COULDN`T GO ANY
HIGHER THAN CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE CAP AND ABSENCE OF FRONTAL LIFT OR EVIDENCE OF
500 MB HEIGHT FALLS. I DO INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN SLIGHTLY BETTER HEIGHT FALLS
MOVE IN. WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S...IT WILL FEEL MORE UNCOMFORTABLE THAN MONDAY. A
VERY WARM AND SULTRY EVENING AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 427 PM EDT SUNDAY...BULK SHEAR INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AND INSTABILITY INCREASES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO
HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING STORMS TO
CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING.

EXPECTING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GFS MODEL SHOWING THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FROM THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...SO HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS...EXPECT
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT EARLY THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.

SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...BUT BOTH
ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
REMAINING THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME MOUNTAIN CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME HIGH THIN
CIRRUS CLOUDS AT TIMES. THESE CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET THIS EVENING...DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. WINDS
CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SLIGHT DIRECTIONAL VARIATIONS GOVERNED BY TERRAIN EFFECTS AND/OR
LAKE BREEZES. MOISTURE MOVING NORTRHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...SO EXPECTING SOME INCREASE IN MID
LEVELS FROM 06Z MONDAY ONWARD.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH WITH A SLOWLY INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CIGS
AND BRIEF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHEST COVERAGE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
ON THURSDAY. BECOMING VFR ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 356 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LOSE INFLUENCE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
WEATHER TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN WARM TEMPERATURES
AND RISING DEWPOINTS THROUGH MID WEEK. IT WILL ALSO BE TURNING
MORE UNSETTLED WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE BETWEEN A SFC
ANTICYCLONE MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND A
POTENT CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. AFTERNOON VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF DIURNAL CUMULUS WHOSE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT
IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY AN AMPLIFIED MID- LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN
PLACE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TAKING PLACE TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW YORK IN
A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AIDED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN MICHIGAN. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT THAT CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. RAP ANALYSES SHOW SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY THERE CURRENTLY...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED AS NIGHTFALL PROGRESSES.
OPTED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 03-12Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDINESS BUT A DRY EVENING FOR THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

FIRST OF WHAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A FEW RATHER MUGGY NIGHTS
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S - WITH UPPER 60S MORE LIKELY IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 356 PM EDT SUNDAY...WARM AND MORE HUMID WEATHER WILL
ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD /AND INTO MID WEEK AS WELL/. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH TUESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH DAYTIME APPARENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S. THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS WELL...THOUGH THERE STILL ARE SOME
QUESTIONS ON OVERALL COVERAGE AND STRENGTH.

ON MONDAY...WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE DAY. EXPECT ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDER TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAY...ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS BY MID-MORNING...CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT
LATER IN THE DAY. OPTED FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. MORE CLOUDS THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL TEND TO KEEP INSTABILITY ON THE LOW SIDE. THOUGH 850 MB
TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO AROUND +16C...THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY (LOWER TO MID 80S). LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 60S.

FOR TUESDAY...TODAY`S GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE
SLOWER ON TUESDAY WITH APPROACH OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM POTENT UPPER
MIDWEST LOW. DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS IN VERY WARM
LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/CAPPING (+23 AT 925 MB AND NEAR +10C AT
700 MB). A NUMBER OF GUIDANCE ALSO TAPS INTO A POTENTIALLY
UNSTABLE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER FROM THE MIDWEST WITH STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES TO ITS STRENGTH
AND TIMING. WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO BE STRENGTHENING TO THE POINT
WHERE WIND SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION TO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN GET GOING. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE POSSIBLE...BUT FORCING IS A QUESTION MARK ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
PROGGED STRENGTH OF THE CAPPING INVERSION. I COULDN`T GO ANY
HIGHER THAN CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE CAP AND ABSENCE OF FRONTAL LIFT OR EVIDENCE OF
500 MB HEIGHT FALLS. I DO INCREASE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN SLIGHTLY BETTER HEIGHT FALLS
MOVE IN. WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S...IT WILL FEEL MORE UNCOMFORTABLE THAN MONDAY. A
VERY WARM AND SULTRY EVENING AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM EDT SUNDAY...STILL LOOKING LIKE AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF
WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME FRAME AS LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW
PROGRESSION INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SEVERAL WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHS SWINGING
THROUGH THE MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ACT AS FOCI FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY AND EVENING...BUT RECENT DETERMINISTIC
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE POTENTIAL THREAT FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY. WITH AT LEAST DECENT
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY I CERTAINLY CAN`T CALL THE THREAT
ZERO...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SUCH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...A
BROADER LOOK AT THIS MORNING`S SOLUTIONS SHOW A GENERAL LACK OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND TO BE HONEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS PLENTY OF MIXED SIGNALS STILL ABOUND.
AT THIS POINT THE BEST THREAT OF ANY STRONGER ACTIVITY STILL
LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY
EVENING...AND ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THIS IDEA IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. IN FACT THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING THE
BIGGER STORM DAY AS LATEST CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THIS
WOULD BE THE DAY THAT THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY COOL BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMS BY THURSDAY DUE TO A GREATER ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.

SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF WEST TO EAST
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE FRONT CLEARS
FURTHER EAST AND IS REPLACED BY DEEP LAYER RIDGING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVER TIME SETTING
THE STAGE FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PLEASANTLY WARM AND DRY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME MOUNTAIN CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME HIGH THIN
CIRRUS CLOUDS AT TIMES. THESE CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET THIS EVENING...DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. WINDS
CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SLIGHT DIRECTIONAL VARIATIONS GOVERNED BY TERRAIN EFFECTS AND/OR
LAKE BREEZES. MOISTURE MOVING NORTRHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...SO EXPECTING SOME INCREASE IN MID
LEVELS FROM 06Z MONDAY ONWARD.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH WITH A SLOWLY INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CIGS
AND BRIEF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHEST COVERAGE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
ON THURSDAY. BECOMING VFR ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH












AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 158 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR FOR NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MID WEEK. WITH THE INCREASING WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PA AS OF 14Z. A FEW CUMULUS WERE ALREADY
BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE SCRANTON WILKES BARRE AREAS TO BRADFORD
COUNTY. WITH CONTINUED INSOLATION I EXPECT A SCT-BKN CU FIELD TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF C NY AND NE PA AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING FROM 14C TO 16C AND SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S F WHICH TRANSLATES TO 16-18C. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HINTS
THAT A SHORT WAVE WAS RIDING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH WAS OVR NY/PA AT THIS TIME. A CIRRUS LAYER FROM CNTRL
PA TO SRN ONT CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF THIS WAVE ALONG WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWG DARKENING OVER LAKE HURON AND ERN LWR MI.
INDEED THERE WERE A FEW ISLD SHRA OVER WRN AND SRN PA AT THIS
TIME. THE RAP AND OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS ALONG WITH THE LARGER
SCALE SYNOPTIC MODELS TRACK THIS SHRT WAVE UP TO SRN QUEBEC BY 00Z
AND AS A RESULT THE UPPER LVL RDG AXIS MOVES A LITTLE EASTWARD
REACHING A BTV-LNS LINE ROUGHLY BY THIS EVE.

ONE CONSEQUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RDG OVHD MUCH OF THE DAY IS THAT
IT IS SUPPORTING A SFC ANTICYCLONE OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH IS
CONTINUING TO LEAD TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR THRU NY AND PA. THE
LL SRLY WINDS ARE A BIT STRGR WEST OF THE APPLCNS INTO WRN NY AND
HENCE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS AREA SEES THE HIGHEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE THIS PM. IN ADDTN...THIS AREA IS A LITTLE COOLER ALOFT BEING
A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER RDG AXIS THIS PM. HENCE
CONCUR WITH PREV SHIFT AND SURROUNDING OFFICES THAT THE FINGER
LAKES REGION TO NC NY IN THE NWS BGM FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE THE
BEST SHOT FOR POP UP HIT AND MISS SHRA AND TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVE AND
HAVE KEPT POPS PRETTY MUCH AS IS WITH SLIGHTLY TIMING ADJUSTMENTS.

WINDS ARE WEAK WITH THE STRGEST WINDS APPRCHING 20 KNOTS IN THE
LL/S. THE AMS WAS ALSO PRETTY DRY THIS PM SO I DON/T SEE A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT TODAY. MODEL CAPES VARY RANGING FROM OVER 1000 J/KG ON
THE NAM TO LESS THAN A 100 J/KG ON THE GFS. THE SFC DEWPOINTS LOOK
TOO HIGH ON THE NAM AND TOO LOW ON THE GFS. SO WE SHUD SEE CAPES
ARND 500 J/KG OR BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK SHEAR
SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE UPR LVL RDG AND LIKELY WILL SUPPORT A FEW SHRA MAINLY ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES TO NC NY LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT MADE NO SIG
CHANGES TO PREV FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
500 AM UPDATE...
HOT AND HUMID, ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE THE RULE DURING THIS PERIOD. AS
OF NOW IT APPEARS WE WILL HAVE TO RELY ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
FOR ANY CONVECTION MONDAY. THIS MAY KEEP OUR CONVECTION FAIRLY
CONFINED TO THE LAKE PLAIN, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STAYING DRY. A
BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL COME LATE TUESDAY, AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. AS THE DAY SHIFT
POINTED OUT FROM SATURDAY, HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE LATE
TUESDAY WITH CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG, IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR, AND PWATS (A MEASURE OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS IN THE
ATMOSPHERE) ABOVE 1.7 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
THREAT IN THE HWO, AND AFTER TALKING TO THE LONG TERM FORECASTER
WILL EXTEND THREAT THROUGH THURSDAY. SEE BELOW FOR THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING AN
AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROF PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER
MIDWEST THIS WEEK WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE THURSDAY-THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME OFFERING UP THE FINAL ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE REGION. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN
THIS AIRMASS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DEEP
BULK SHEAR MAY ALSO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THIS IS LOW CONFIDENCE. THEN...A BROAD
AND UNSEASONABLY FRESH AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD IN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH FAIR
SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BRINGING
THE WIND FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KT. SOME VFR CIGS HAVE
POPPED UP OVER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL NY AND NE PA AND CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE EVENING BUT REMAIN GENERALLY
VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW HAS HELPED TO TRIGGER CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS FROM NEAR KROC S TO HORNELL IN WESTERN STUEBEN COUNTY.
THIS ACTIVITY IS MAKING VERY LITTLE HEADWAY TO THE EAST AS THE
STEERING WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER OVER NIGHT AT TERMAINALS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TERMINAL.
ALSO CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL MVFR
VSBY OVER NIGHT...ONLY MENTIONED IT AT KELM TERMINAL.

CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.


OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...MAINLY VFR BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/TSRA. POSSIBILITY OF VALLEY FOG AT KELM EACH
OVERNIGHT.

THU...RESTRICTIONS FROM RA/TSRA AS MOIST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

FRI...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/HEDEN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...BMW







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 151 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEGINNING MONDAY WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE. STILL LOOKING AT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ANTICIPATED
INCREASE IN CUMULUS CLOUDS ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME MODEST CAPE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY /LESS THAN 500 J/KG/ AS DEWPOINTS THERE HAVE CLIMBED INTO
THE MID 60S. HOWEVER WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING CAPPED WITH
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DRY. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON /EXCEPT
NEAR THE SHORE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN/. WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF
SUNSHINE LEFT TO GO HIGHS STILL LOOK ON TRACK...WELL INTO THE 80S
WITH AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...TONIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITIES ON SOUTH WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT WAS...MAINLY UPPER 60S. EASTERN
VERMONT SHOULD HAVE THE COOLEST TEMPS...THOUGH STILL UNSEASONABLY
WARM...WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDS. DURING THE DAY MONDAY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM. HAVE ACTUALLY GONE WITH MAX
TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO TODAY THOUGH...BECAUSE THERE WILL BE MORE
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE AROUND WHICH I THINK WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING...THOUGH TEMPS STILL WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. UPPER
80S ARE FORECASTED AREA WIDE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION MONDAY ALLOWING MID LEVEL ANTI CYCOLNIC FLOW TO
INCREASE. DESPITE THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION...INSTABILITY PROGS ARE PRETTY MARGINAL. FEEL THAT
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LIKELY POPS MENTIONED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL ALL WANE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE WARM WITH LOW TEMPS AROUND 70 IN SOME SPOTS. TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850 TEMPS CONTINUING
TO WARM ON SOUTHWESTERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEST INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR FORECAST REGION ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WILL
MENTION CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN BEST CHANCE WILL BE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...THOUGH WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSED. BIGGER NEWS TUESDAY WILL BE
TEMPS EDGING TOWARDS 90 IN SOME LOCATIONS. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
CLOUDS LIMIT WARMING ATA LL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM EDT SUNDAY...STILL LOOKING LIKE AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF
WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME FRAME AS LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW
PROGRESSION INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SEVERAL WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHS SWINGING
THROUGH THE MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ACT AS FOCI FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY AND EVENING...BUT RECENT DETERMINISTIC
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE POTENTIAL THREAT FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY. WITH AT LEAST DECENT
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY I CERTAINLY CAN`T CALL THE THREAT
ZERO...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SUCH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...A
BROADER LOOK AT THIS MORNING`S SOLUTIONS SHOW A GENERAL LACK OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND TO BE HONEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS PLENTY OF MIXED SIGNALS STILL ABOUND.
AT THIS POINT THE BEST THREAT OF ANY STRONGER ACTIVITY STILL
LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY
EVENING...AND ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THIS IDEA IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. IN FACT THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING THE
BIGGER STORM DAY AS LATEST CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THIS
WOULD BE THE DAY THAT THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY COOL BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMS BY THURSDAY DUE TO A GREATER ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.

SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF WEST TO EAST
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE FRONT CLEARS
FURTHER EAST AND IS REPLACED BY DEEP LAYER RIDGING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVER TIME SETTING
THE STAGE FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PLEASANTLY WARM AND DRY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME MOUNTAIN CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME HIGH THIN
CIRRUS CLOUDS AT TIMES. THESE CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET THIS EVENING...DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. WINDS
CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SLIGHT DIRECTIONAL VARIATIONS GOVERNED BY TERRAIN EFFECTS AND/OR
LAKE BREEZES. MOISTURE MOVING NORTRHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT...SO EXPECTING SOME INCREASE IN MID
LEVELS FROM 06Z MONDAY ONWARD.

OUTLOOK 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH WITH A SLOWLY INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CIGS
AND BRIEF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHEST COVERAGE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
ON THURSDAY. BECOMING VFR ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...WGH








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

 137 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR FOR NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MID WEEK. WITH THE INCREASING WARMTH
AND HUMIDITY THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PA AS OF 14Z. A FEW CUMULUS WERE ALREADY
BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE SCRANTON WILKES BARRE AREAS TO BRADFORD
COUNTY. WITH CONTINUED INSOLATION I EXPECT A SCT-BKN CU FIELD TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF C NY AND NE PA AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING FROM 14C TO 16C AND SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S F WHICH TRANSLATES TO 16-18C. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HINTS
THAT A SHORT WAVE WAS RIDING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH WAS OVR NY/PA AT THIS TIME. A CIRRUS LAYER FROM CNTRL
PA TO SRN ONT CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF THIS WAVE ALONG WITH WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWG DARKENING OVER LAKE HURON AND ERN LWR MI.
INDEED THERE WERE A FEW ISLD SHRA OVER WRN AND SRN PA AT THIS
TIME. THE RAP AND OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS ALONG WITH THE LARGER
SCALE SYNOPTIC MODELS TRACK THIS SHRT WAVE UP TO SRN QUEBEC BY 00Z
AND AS A RESULT THE UPPER LVL RDG AXIS MOVES A LITTLE EASTWARD
REACHING A BTV-LNS LINE ROUGHLY BY THIS EVE.

ONE CONSEQUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RDG OVHD MUCH OF THE DAY IS THAT
IT IS SUPPORTING A SFC ANTICYCLONE OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH IS
CONTINUING TO LEAD TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR THRU NY AND PA. THE
LL SRLY WINDS ARE A BIT STRGR WEST OF THE APPLCNS INTO WRN NY AND
HENCE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS AREA SEES THE HIGHEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE THIS PM. IN ADDTN...THIS AREA IS A LITTLE COOLER ALOFT BEING
A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER RDG AXIS THIS PM. HENCE
CONCUR WITH PREV SHIFT AND SURROUNDING OFFICES THAT THE FINGER
LAKES REGION TO NC NY IN THE NWS BGM FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE THE
BEST SHOT FOR POP UP HIT AND MISS SHRA AND TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVE AND
HAVE KEPT POPS PRETTY MUCH AS IS WITH SLIGHTLY TIMING ADJUSTMENTS.

WINDS ARE WEAK WITH THE STRGEST WINDS APPRCHING 20 KNOTS IN THE
LL/S. THE AMS WAS ALSO PRETTY DRY THIS PM SO I DON/T SEE A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT TODAY. MODEL CAPES VARY RANGING FROM OVER 1000 J/KG ON
THE NAM TO LESS THAN A 100 J/KG ON THE GFS. THE SFC DEWPOINTS LOOK
TOO HIGH ON THE NAM AND TOO LOW ON THE GFS. SO WE SHUD SEE CAPES
ARND 500 J/KG OR BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK SHEAR
SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL RIDE UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE UPR LVL RDG AND LIKELY WILL SUPPORT A FEW SHRA MAINLY ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES TO NC NY LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT MADE NO SIG
CHANGES TO PREV FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
500 AM UPDATE...
HOT AND HUMID, ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE THE RULE DURING THIS PERIOD. AS
OF NOW IT APPEARS WE WILL HAVE TO RELY ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES
FOR ANY CONVECTION MONDAY. THIS MAY KEEP OUR CONVECTION FAIRLY
CONFINED TO THE LAKE PLAIN, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STAYING DRY. A
BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WILL COME LATE TUESDAY, AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. AS THE DAY SHIFT
POINTED OUT FROM SATURDAY, HEAVY RAIN/STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE LATE
TUESDAY WITH CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG, IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR, AND PWATS (A MEASURE OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS IN THE
ATMOSPHERE) ABOVE 1.7 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
THREAT IN THE HWO, AND AFTER TALKING TO THE LONG TERM FORECASTER
WILL EXTEND THREAT THROUGH THURSDAY. SEE BELOW FOR THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AND MODEL TRENDS. WITH
ANOTHER GFS-ECMWF RUN...IT IS BECOMING CLEARER THAT THE FINAL COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY /MENTIONED BELOW/ WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACCORDINGLY. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL TEMPORARILY DIP WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND UPPER
WAVE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...ONLY TO INCREASE TO BACK IN EXCESS OF
1.5 INCHES LATE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY POOLED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THE RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WATER
HAZARDS NOTED BELOW...BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MAY INCREASE SHEAR THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THIS COULD PROMOTE ORGANIZED STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROF PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSPORT DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
PERIODIC MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE LIKELY TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY. MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAIN PRODUCTION...AND WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP THIS IDEA IN MIND FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED WATER RELATED HAZARDS NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST A FINAL PUSH OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WITH
RATHER MODEST HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR FRIDAY AND NEXT
WEEKEND. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 28/00Z ECMWF LURKING A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY NEXT SATURDAY...THE MODEL
CONSENSUS SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW THE WPC
FORECASTS. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS AND LESS HUMIDITY FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BRINGING
THE WIND FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KT. SOME VFR CIGS HAVE
POPPED UP OVER TERRAIN IN CENTRAL NY AND NE PA AND CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE EVENING BUT REMAIN GENERALLY
VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW HAS HELPED TO TRIGGER CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS FROM NEAR KROC S TO HORNELL IN WESTERN STUEBEN COUNTY.
THIS ACTIVITY IS MAKING VERY LITTLE HEADWAY TO THE EAST AS THE
STEERING WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT. HOWEVER THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER OVER NIGHT AT TERMAINALS AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TERMINAL.
ALSO CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL MVFR
VSBY OVER NIGHT...ONLY MENTIONED IT AT KELM TERMINAL.

CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.


OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...MAINLY VFR BUT BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/TSRA. POSSIBILITY OF VALLEY FOG AT KELM EACH
OVERNIGHT.

THU...RESTRICTIONS FROM RA/TSRA AS MOIST COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

FRI...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/HEDEN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BMW






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 100 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BEGINNING MONDAY WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS UPDATE. STILL LOOKING AT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ANTICIPATED
INCREASE IN CUMULUS CLOUDS ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME MODEST CAPE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY /LESS THAN 500 J/KG/ AS DEWPOINTS THERE HAVE CLIMBED INTO
THE MID 60S. HOWEVER WITH ATMOSPHERE REMAINING CAPPED WITH
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DRY. TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON /EXCEPT
NEAR THE SHORE OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN/. WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF
SUNSHINE LEFT TO GO HIGHS STILL LOOK ON TRACK...WELL INTO THE 80S
WITH AROUND 90 IN THE WARMER CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT SUNDAY...TONIGHT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITIES ON SOUTH WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT WAS...MAINLY UPPER 60S. EASTERN
VERMONT SHOULD HAVE THE COOLEST TEMPS...THOUGH STILL UNSEASONABLY
WARM...WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUDS. DURING THE DAY MONDAY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM. HAVE ACTUALLY GONE WITH MAX
TEMPS VERY CLOSE TO TODAY THOUGH...BECAUSE THERE WILL BE MORE
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE AROUND WHICH I THINK WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING...THOUGH TEMPS STILL WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. UPPER
80S ARE FORECASTED AREA WIDE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION MONDAY ALLOWING MID LEVEL ANTI CYCOLNIC FLOW TO
INCREASE. DESPITE THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION...INSTABILITY PROGS ARE PRETTY MARGINAL. FEEL THAT
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LIKELY POPS MENTIONED OVER NORTHERN NEW
YORK WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL ALL WANE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE WARM WITH LOW TEMPS AROUND 70 IN SOME SPOTS. TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH 850 TEMPS CONTINUING
TO WARM ON SOUTHWESTERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION. BEST INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR FORECAST REGION ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WILL
MENTION CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN BEST CHANCE WILL BE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...THOUGH WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSED. BIGGER NEWS TUESDAY WILL BE
TEMPS EDGING TOWARDS 90 IN SOME LOCATIONS. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
CLOUDS LIMIT WARMING ATA LL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 313 AM EDT SUNDAY...STILL LOOKING LIKE AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF
WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME FRAME AS LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH MAKES SLOW
PROGRESSION INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SEVERAL WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHS SWINGING
THROUGH THE MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ACT AS FOCI FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY AND EVENING...BUT RECENT DETERMINISTIC
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE POTENTIAL THREAT FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY. WITH AT LEAST DECENT
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY I CERTAINLY CAN`T CALL THE THREAT
ZERO...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SUCH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...A
BROADER LOOK AT THIS MORNING`S SOLUTIONS SHOW A GENERAL LACK OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND TO BE HONEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST. THUS PLENTY OF MIXED SIGNALS STILL ABOUND.
AT THIS POINT THE BEST THREAT OF ANY STRONGER ACTIVITY STILL
LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY
EVENING...AND ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN COUNTIES ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH THIS IDEA IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. IN FACT THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING THE
BIGGER STORM DAY AS LATEST CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST THIS
WOULD BE THE DAY THAT THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY COOL BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMS BY THURSDAY DUE TO A GREATER ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.

SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF WEST TO EAST
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE FRONT CLEARS
FURTHER EAST AND IS REPLACED BY DEEP LAYER RIDGING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVER TIME SETTING
THE STAGE FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER PLEASANTLY WARM AND DRY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FEW MOUNTAIN CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME PASSING MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES. WINDS CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SLIGHT DIRECTIONAL VARIATIONS
GOVERNED BY TERRAIN EFFECTS AND/OR LAKE BREEZES.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

12Z THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR CONTINUES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR THOUGH WITH A SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CIGS AND
BRIEF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHEST COVERAGE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 338 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN BY MID
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND A DIFFUSE FRONT
OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...ESSENTIALLY SEPARATING SURFACE DEW
POINTS LARGELY IN THE 50S FROM DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S OR NEAR
70F. MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IS THE PROGRESS
OF A NARROW BAND OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH A WEAK 700MB WAVE AS
ANALYZED BY THE MAJORITY OF NWP ON THE GRADIENT OF HIGHER 850MB
THETA-E AND PRECIPITABLE WATER...MOVING EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE AND BELOW NORMAL OVERALL MOISTURE TO THE
EAST OF THE WAVE HAS RESULTED IN A STRUGGLE OF THE CLOUDS TO MOVE
MUCH PAST THE WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES OR SO...WITH PATCHY RAIN
CONFINED LARGELY TO FORSYTH COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN PERSON COUNTY.
WITH LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE...MUCH OF ANY PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING COULD BE SPRINKLES...AND THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS
SHOWN SOME EROSION OF THE WEST END OF THE CLOUD BAND AS THE RAGGED
EAST EDGE OF THE CLOUDS MOVES SLOWLY EAST. THE NAM AND THE GFS
FORECAST THE MID-LEVEL WAVE TO STEADILY MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...AND SOME OF THE BUFR SOUNDINGS WOULD
INDICATE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY TOWARD KRDU
AND KRWI OVERNIGHT. GRIDDED GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS WOULD PROVIDE FOR
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT THE LATEST TRENDS AND THE
MOISTURE FIELDS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE LATEST RAP...WOULD SUGGEST
THAT IS TOO PESSIMISTIC. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL AVERAGE A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD
CREEP UP OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST...
AND WILL FORECAST LOWS MOSTLY WITH A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS
GUIDANCE...THOUGH CERTAINLY TOWARD THE WARMER MET NEAR KRWI...MOSTLY
IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING BY
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO VALUES NOW AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL...TO NEARLY TWO INCHES ON THE GFS BY 00Z TUESDAY...AND WHILE
NOT SO HIGH ON THE NAM STILL TO ABOUT 1.8 INCHES BY THE SAME TIME.
AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS...
LEAVING LITTLE LOW-LEVEL MECHANISMS FOR STRONG LIFT. BOTH THE NAM
AND THE GFS SUGGEST UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST...AND ONLY WEAK 850MB CONVERGENCE MAINLY TOWARD THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT WHERE THE BETTER LIFT...RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...IS FORECAST. GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
ESSENTIALLY THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS CAPPED TO
DEEP CONVECTION EXCEPT TOWARD THE TRIAD...WHERE THERE WOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IF A STORM COULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA TO
BE SUSTAINED. MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST KM IS UNDER 1000J/KG AND
DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS WEAK...UNDER 400J/KG...SO CURRENTLY THE CHANCES OF
VIGOROUS CONVECTION APPEARS LOW. LIFTED INDICES MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE
TO -2C ON THE NAM WHICH GENERATES NO QPF AT ALL IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...AND TO -4C OR SO ON THE GFS WHICH DOES PROVIDE FOR A
LARGER AREA OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT MONDAY AFTERNOON WEST
OF U.S. 1...ALTHOUGH WITH LESSER MOS GUIDANCE POPS THAN THE NAM.
SOME OF THE HRRR WRF GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WEST OF U.S. 1 MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SO WILL BLEND THE NAM...GFS...AND THE WRF
GUIDANCE AND SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
BEFORE WANING DIURNALLY. HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 90 ON AVERAGE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70...CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR. -DJF

TUE/TUE NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN TUE/TUE NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW (CURRENTLY IN MANITOBA) TRACKS ESE TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...THOUGH THE HEIGHT GRADIENT
WILL CHANGE LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE CAROLINAS. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL PROGRESS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUE AFT/EVE.  FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE CONFINED TO WEAK/SHALLOW CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY
OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND ALONG THE SEABREEZE...THE LATTER OF WHICH
COULD PENETRATE WELL INLAND VIA ONSHORE FLOW (S/SE). MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE PROGGED TO STEEPEN FROM THE WEST TUE AFT/EVE AS A MODIFIED
EML ADVECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THOUGH THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT (UP
TO 2000 J/KG MLCAPE)...IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
CAP AND /DRY MID-LEVEL AIRMASS/ THAT COULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE PRESENCE OF SUCH WEAK FORCING. HOWEVER...GIVEN A POTENTIAL FOR
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO DRIFT EASTWARD IN AN ENV. WHICH WOULD FAVOR
STRONG COLD POOLS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION APPEARS WARRANTED
IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT. WILL ALSO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN IN ASSOC/W ONSHORE FLOW IN
THE PRESENCE OF A WEAKER MID-LEVEL CAP (ALBEIT WITH WEAKER
INSTABILITY). EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE 90-95F RANGE...WARMEST IN THE
SANDHILLS. LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL BE MUGGY GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW...IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON WED AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ADVECTS A WARMER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AND ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THU/FRI IN
ASSOC/W INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/
CAROLINAS AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS IN ASSOC/W THE
POTENTIAL FOR HOMEGROWN TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WED-FRI. IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST...THERE ARE TWO PRIMARY
SCENARIOS: 1) IF THE TRACK IS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND/OR THE
APPROACHING TROUGH IS SLOWER...PRECIP CHANCES COULD BE LOWER THAN
OTHERWISE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL PLAIN IN ASSOC/W SUBSIDENCE AND A
DRY MID-LEVEL AIRMASS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM...OR 2)
IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE COAST (OR INLAND) AND THE TROUGH
APPROACHES AS PROGGED BY 12Z GUIDANCE...THEN THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD
FAVOR A `LEFT OF TRACK` SCENARIO WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC. GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAKE FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION WED-FRI IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OFFSHORE THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY SATURDAY...STEERING THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE OFFSHORE WITH EVENTUAL INTERACTION /EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION/ OCCURRING WELL NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. WITH SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIER /MORE STABLE/
AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF
PERIOD. PROBABILITIES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LOW...AND THE FEW
SHOWERS AS OF THIS WRITING OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...CLOSEST
TO KINT...SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
THEY STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST INTO DRIER AIR. SURFACE WINDS...MOSTLY
UNDER 10KT...WILL SLOWLY VEER DURING THE PERIOD AND BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BY MID-MORNING MONDAY.

BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BECOMES INCREASING MOIST DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK. MOSTLY ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IF ANY...
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK. SOME
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY. AS THE
AIR MASS MOISTENS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS INCREASES
SOME...THOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST PROBABILITY OF
THAT ON A MORE WIDESPREAD BASIS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA COMES
EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...DJF



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 327 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MEANDERS JUST OFFSHORE AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND A DIFFUSE FRONT
OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...ESSENTIALLY SEPARATING SURFACE DEW
POINTS LARGELY IN THE 50S FROM DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S OR NEAR
70F. MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IS THE PROGRESS
OF A NARROW BAND OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH A WEAK 700MB WAVE AS
ANALYZED BY THE MAJORITY OF NWP ON THE GRADIENT OF HIGHER 850MB
THETA-E AND PRECIPITABLE WATER...MOVING EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE AND BELOW NORMAL OVERALL MOISTURE TO THE
EAST OF THE WAVE HAS RESULTED IN A STRUGGLE OF THE CLOUDS TO MOVE
MUCH PAST THE WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES OR SO...WITH PATCHY RAIN
CONFINED LARGELY TO FORSYTH COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN PERSON COUNTY.
WITH LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE...MUCH OF ANY PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING COULD BE SPRINKLES...AND THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS
SHOWN SOME EROSION OF THE WEST END OF THE CLOUD BAND AS THE RAGGED
EAST EDGE OF THE CLOUDS MOVES SLOWLY EAST. THE NAM AND THE GFS
FORECAST THE MID-LEVEL WAVE TO STEADILY MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...AND SOME OF THE BUFR SOUNDINGS WOULD
INDICATE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY TOWARD KRDU
AND KRWI OVERNIGHT. GRIDDED GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS WOULD PROVIDE FOR
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT THE LATEST TRENDS AND THE
MOISTURE FIELDS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE LATEST RAP...WOULD SUGGEST
THAT IS TOO PESSIMISTIC. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL AVERAGE A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD
CREEP UP OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST...
AND WILL FORECAST LOWS MOSTLY WITH A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS
GUIDANCE...THOUGH CERTAINLY TOWARD THE WARMER MET NEAR KRWI...MOSTLY
IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING BY
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO VALUES NOW AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL...TO NEARLY TWO INCHES ON THE GFS BY 00Z TUESDAY...AND WHILE
NOT SO HIGH ON THE NAM STILL TO ABOUT 1.8 INCHES BY THE SAME TIME.
AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS...
LEAVING LITTLE LOW-LEVEL MECHANISMS FOR STRONG LIFT. BOTH THE NAM
AND THE GFS SUGGEST UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST...AND ONLY WEAK 850MB CONVERGENCE MAINLY TOWARD THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT WHERE THE BETTER LIFT...RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...IS FORECAST. GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
ESSENTIALLY THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS CAPPED TO
DEEP CONVECTION EXCEPT TOWARD THE TRIAD...WHERE THERE WOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IF A STORM COULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA TO
BE SUSTAINED. MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST KM IS UNDER 1000J/KG AND
DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS WEAK...UNDER 400J/KG...SO CURRENTLY THE CHANCES OF
VIGOROUS CONVECTION APPEARS LOW. LIFTED INDICES MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE
TO -2C ON THE NAM WHICH GENERATES NO QPF AT ALL IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...AND TO -4C OR SO ON THE GFS WHICH DOES PROVIDE FOR A
LARGER AREA OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT MONDAY AFTERNOON WEST
OF U.S. 1...ALTHOUGH WITH LESSER MOS GUIDANCE POPS THAN THE NAM.
SOME OF THE HRRR WRF GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WEST OF U.S. 1 MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SO WILL BLEND THE NAM...GFS...AND THE WRF
GUIDANCE AND SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
BEFORE WANING DIURNALLY. HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 90 ON AVERAGE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70...CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR. -DJF

TUE/TUE NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN TUE/TUE NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW (CURRENTLY IN MANITOBA) TRACKS ESE TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...THOUGH THE HEIGHT GRADIENT
WILL CHANGE LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE CAROLINAS. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL PROGRESS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUE AFT/EVE.  FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE CONFINED TO WEAK/SHALLOW CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY
OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND ALONG THE SEABREEZE...THE LATTER OF WHICH
COULD PENETRATE WELL INLAND VIA ONSHORE FLOW (S/SE). MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE PROGGED TO STEEPEN FROM THE WEST TUE AFT/EVE AS A MODIFIED
EML ADVECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THOUGH THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT (UP
TO 2000 J/KG MLCAPE)...IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
CAP AND /DRY MID-LEVEL AIRMASS/ THAT COULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE PRESENCE OF SUCH WEAK FORCING. HOWEVER...GIVEN A POTENTIAL FOR
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO DRIFT EASTWARD IN AN ENV. WHICH WOULD FAVOR
STRONG COLD POOLS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION APPEARS WARRANTED
IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT. WILL ALSO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN IN ASSOC/W ONSHORE FLOW IN
THE PRESENCE OF A WEAKER MID-LEVEL CAP (ALBEIT WITH WEAKER
INSTABILITY). EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE 90-95F RANGE...WARMEST IN THE
SANDHILLS. LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL BE MUGGY GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW...IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND
CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON WED AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ADVECTS A WARMER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AND ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THU/FRI IN
ASSOC/W INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/
CAROLINAS AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOC/W A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS IN ASSOC/W THE
POTENTIAL FOR HOMEGROWN TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WED-FRI. IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST...THERE ARE TWO PRIMARY
SCENARIOS: 1) IF THE TRACK IS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND/OR THE
APPROACHING TROUGH IS SLOWER...PRECIP CHANCES COULD BE LOWER THAN
OTHERWISE EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL PLAIN IN ASSOC/W SUBSIDENCE AND A
DRY MID-LEVEL AIRMASS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM...OR 2)
IF THE TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE COAST (OR INLAND) AND THE TROUGH
APPROACHES AS PROGGED BY 12Z GUIDANCE...THEN THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD
FAVOR A `LEFT OF TRACK` SCENARIO WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC. GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAKE FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
EAST INTO THE REGION WED-FRI IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OFFSHORE THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY SATURDAY...STEERING THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE OFFSHORE WITH EVENTUAL INTERACTION /EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION/ OCCURRING WELL NORTHEAST OF CENTRAL NC OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. WITH SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIER /MORE STABLE/
AIRMASS IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF
PERIOD. PROBABILITIES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LOW...AND THE FEW
SHOWERS AS OF THIS WRITING OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...CLOSEST
TO KINT...SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
THEY STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST INTO DRIER AIR. SURFACE WINDS...MOSTLY
UNDER 10KT...WILL SLOWLY VEER DURING THE PERIOD AND BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BY MID-MORNING MONDAY.

BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BECOMES INCREASING MOIST DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK. MOSTLY ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IF ANY...
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK. SOME
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY. AS THE
AIR MASS MOISTENS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS INCREASES
SOME...THOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST PROBABILITY OF
THAT ON A MORE WIDESPREAD BASIS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA COMES
EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TC
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...DJF



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 251 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MEANDERS JUST OFFSHORE AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM EARLIER TODAY...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND A DIFFUSE FRONT
OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...ESSENTIALLY SEPARATING SURFACE DEW
POINTS LARGELY IN THE 50S FROM DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S OR NEAR
70F. MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IS THE PROGRESS
OF A NARROW BAND OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH A WEAK 700MB WAVE AS
ANALYZED BY THE MAJORITY OF NWP ON THE GRADIENT OF HIGHER 850MB
THETA-E AND PRECIPITABLE WATER...MOVING EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE AND BELOW NORMAL OVERALL MOISTURE TO THE
EAST OF THE WAVE HAS RESULTED IN A STRUGGLE OF THE CLOUDS TO MOVE
MUCH PAST THE WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES OR SO...WITH PATCHY RAIN
CONFINED LARGELY TO FORSYTH COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN PERSON COUNTY.
WITH LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE...MUCH OF ANY PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING COULD BE SPRINKLES...AND THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS
SHOWN SOME EROSION OF THE WEST END OF THE CLOUD BAND AS THE RAGGED
EAST EDGE OF THE CLOUDS MOVES SLOWLY EAST. THE NAM AND THE GFS
FORECAST THE MID-LEVEL WAVE TO STEADILY MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...AND SOME OF THE BUFR SOUNDINGS WOULD
INDICATE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY TOWARD KRDU
AND KRWI OVERNIGHT. GRIDDED GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS WOULD PROVIDE FOR
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...BUT THE LATEST TRENDS AND THE
MOISTURE FIELDS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE LATEST RAP...WOULD SUGGEST
THAT IS TOO PESSIMISTIC. FOR THIS FORECAST...WILL AVERAGE A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD
CREEP UP OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES VERY SLOWLY EAST...
AND WILL FORECAST LOWS MOSTLY WITH A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS
GUIDANCE...THOUGH CERTAINLY TOWARD THE WARMER MET NEAR KRWI...MOSTLY
IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...

THE NAM AND THE GFS FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING BY
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO VALUES NOW AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL...TO NEARLY TWO INCHES ON THE GFS BY 00Z TUESDAY...AND WHILE
NOT SO HIGH ON THE NAM STILL TO ABOUT 1.8 INCHES BY THE SAME TIME.
AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS...
LEAVING LITTLE LOW-LEVEL MECHANISMS FOR STRONG LIFT. BOTH THE NAM
AND THE GFS SUGGEST UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST...AND ONLY WEAK 850MB CONVERGENCE MAINLY TOWARD THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT WHERE THE BETTER LIFT...RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA...IS FORECAST. GFS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
ESSENTIALLY THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS CAPPED TO
DEEP CONVECTION EXCEPT TOWARD THE TRIAD...WHERE THERE WOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IF A STORM COULD DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE AREA TO
BE SUSTAINED. MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST KM IS UNDER 1000J/KG AND
DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS WEAK...UNDER 400J/KG...SO CURRENTLY THE CHANCES OF
VIGOROUS CONVECTION APPEARS LOW. LIFTED INDICES MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE
TO -2C ON THE NAM WHICH GENERATES NO QPF AT ALL IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...AND TO -4C OR SO ON THE GFS WHICH DOES PROVIDE FOR A
LARGER AREA OF QPF OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT MONDAY AFTERNOON WEST
OF U.S. 1...ALTHOUGH WITH LESSER MOS GUIDANCE POPS THAN THE NAM.
SOME OF THE HRRR WRF GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WEST OF U.S. 1 MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SO WILL BLEND THE NAM...GFS...AND THE WRF
GUIDANCE AND SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
BEFORE WANING DIURNALLY. HIGHS MONDAY AROUND 90 ON AVERAGE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70...CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR. -DJF

TUE/TUE NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN TUE/TUE NIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW (CURRENTLY IN MANITOBA) TRACKS ESE TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...THOUGH THE HEIGHT GRADIENT
WILL CHANGE LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE CAROLINAS. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL PROGRESS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TUE AFT/EVE.  FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE CONFINED TO WEAK/SHALLOW CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY
OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND ALONG THE SEABREEZE...THE LATTER OF WHICH
COULD PENETRATE WELL INLAND VIA ONSHORE FLOW (S/SE). MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE PROGGED TO STEEPEN FROM THE WEST TUE AFT/EVE AS A MODIFIED
EML ADVECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THOUGH THIS FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT (UP
TO 2000 J/KG MLCAPE)...IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
CAP AND /DRY MID-LEVEL AIRMASS/ THAT COULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE PRESENCE OF SUCH WEAK FORCING. HOWEVER...GIVEN A POTENTIAL FOR
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO DRIFT EASTWARD IN AN ENV. WHICH WOULD FAVOR
STRONG COLD POOLS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION APPEARS WARRANTED
IN THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT. WILL ALSO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN IN ASSOC/W ONSHORE FLOW IN
THE PRESENCE OF A WEAKER MID-LEVEL CAP (ALBEIT WITH WEAKER
INSTABILITY). EXPECT HIGHS TUE IN THE 90-95F RANGE...WARMEST IN THE
SANDHILLS. LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL BE MUGGY GIVEN ONSHORE FLOW...IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US.  A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE.  RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY...BUT WITHOUT A BETTER FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AND MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.  850MB TEMPS PEAK
BETWEEN 19 TO 20C ON WEDNESDAY WITH THICKNESSES NEAR 1430M...WHICH
SUGGESTS MID 90S WITH SOME UPPER 90S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN BY THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A POSSIBLE (SUB)TROPICAL
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  MODELS ARE IS FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT FALLING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  THE COASTAL
LOW IS FORECAST TO MEANDER UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK...LIKELY DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.  CYCLONE PHASE
FORECAST DIAGRAMS SHOW THE LOW SLOWLY BECOMING A WARM CORE
SYSTEM...AND THE NHC CURRENTLY GIVES A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT.  MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE...BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LAST COUPLE OF ECMWF RUNS
HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON BRINGING A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LOW NORTH
ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
POINT... SO WILL MAINTAIN MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A TREND
TOWARD HIGHER CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND HIGHS DROPPING
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF
PERIOD. PROBABILITIES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LOW...AND THE FEW
SHOWERS AS OF THIS WRITING OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...CLOSEST
TO KINT...SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
THEY STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST INTO DRIER AIR. SURFACE WINDS...MOSTLY
UNDER 10KT...WILL SLOWLY VEER DURING THE PERIOD AND BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BY MID-MORNING MONDAY.

BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BECOMES INCREASING MOIST DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK. MOSTLY ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IF ANY...
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK. SOME
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY. AS THE
AIR MASS MOISTENS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS INCREASES
SOME...THOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST PROBABILITY OF
THAT ON A MORE WIDESPREAD BASIS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA COMES
EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TC
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/VINCENT
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...DJF



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 156 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL
DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
MEANDERS JUST OFFSHORE AT LEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE MIDDLE OR END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM SUNDAY...

THE LATEST SURFACE AND UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WITH THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXES
EITHER RIGHT OVER OR JUST WEST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE LATEST
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW NORMAL OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH VALUES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE
NORMAL VALUE OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AREA...AND WEST ALSO NEAR A LOCAL 850MB THETA-E
RIDGE A FEW SHOWERS...WEAKENING AS THEY MOVED EAST...EXISTED. THE
LATEST RAP SHOWS THE CONFIGURATION OF 850MB THETA-E...PRECIPITABLE
WATER...AND K INDICES VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...MAKING ANY CHANCE OF RAIN...LOW AS IT MAY BE...ALONG THE
FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. RAP
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY DRY OVERALL AND DRY FROM 850MB AND BELOW
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE
IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE TRIAD. FOR THE NEAR-TERM UPDATE ADDED A NARROW
WINDOW OF HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS NOON AND BEFORE OVER WESTERN
FORSYTH COUNTY BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...OTHERWISE MAINTAINED THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT TO RAISE MAXES A DEGREE OR TWO IN MUCH OF
THE COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO EXPECTED DRY AIR AND GOOD SUN...AND LOWER
MAXES ABOUT A DEGREE TOWARD KINT. THE HRRR WRF SUGGESTS SOME MIXING
OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER AND JUST WEST OF THE YADKIN RIVER WHILE
THE RAP IS MORE BULLISH WITH THESE CLOUDS...ALBEIT STRUGGLING TO
MOVE EAST. ANY DEEP CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY...WITH INCREASING WARM MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE
AREA. EXPECT INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS WELL AND EXPECT ANY
DEVELOPING CONVECTION TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND CONFINED TO THE
WEST. LOWS WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...

EARLY ON IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US.  A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE.  RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WITHOUT A BETTER FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AND MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.  850MB TEMPS PEAK
BETWEEN 19 TO 20C ON WEDNESDAY WITH THICKNESSES NEAR 1430M...WHICH
SUGGESTS MID 90S WITH SOME UPPER 90S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN BY THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A POSSIBLE (SUB)TROPICAL
LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.  MODELS ARE IS FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT FALLING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  THE COASTAL
LOW IS FORECAST TO MEANDER UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK...LIKELY DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.  CYCLONE PHASE
FORECAST DIAGRAMS SHOW THE LOW SLOWLY BECOMING A WARM CORE
SYSTEM...AND THE NHC CURRENTLY GIVES A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT.  MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE...BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LAST COUPLE OF ECMWF RUNS
HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON BRINGING A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LOW NORTH
ALONG THE COAST BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
POINT... SO WILL MAINTAIN MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A TREND
TOWARD HIGHER CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND HIGHS DROPPING
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF
PERIOD. PROBABILITIES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE LOW...AND THE FEW
SHOWERS AS OF THIS WRITING OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...CLOSEST
TO KINT...SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
THEY STRUGGLE TO MOVE EAST INTO DRIER AIR. SURFACE WINDS...MOSTLY
UNDER 10KT...WILL SLOWLY VEER DURING THE PERIOD AND BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BY MID-MORNING MONDAY.

BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BECOMES INCREASING MOIST DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK. MOSTLY ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IF ANY...
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK. SOME
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY. AS THE
AIR MASS MOISTENS...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS INCREASES
SOME...THOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST PROBABILITY OF
THAT ON A MORE WIDESPREAD BASIS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA COMES
EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TC
NEAR TERM...DJF/KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...DJF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

 631 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN
HIGH AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING LOCALIZED
FLOODING EVENTS THIS EVENING. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON
MONDAY WITH A TREND BACK TO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 630 PM EDT SUNDAY... PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED WEATHER AND POPS STILL
APPLY BUT POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED OVER WESTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR
EXPANSIVE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FOLLOWING CONVECTIVE STORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG AND
NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
AT 430 PM EDT SUNDAY... FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF CONVECTIVE STORMS
AND ASSOCIATED AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WERE MOVING INTO TO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IS FEEDING ON CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG IN A
TONGUE OF HIGH ENERGY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO WESTERN
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER WESTERN ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. HRRR HAS A
REASONABLE... BUT FAR FROM EXACT... DEPICTION OF THE CONVECTION. THE
HRRR TREND FITS THE FORECAST CAPE FIELD WHICH FOLLOWS A TYPICAL
DIURNAL DOWNWARD TREND AROUND SUNSET AND DURING THE SUBSEQUENT
HOURS. WILL LOWER POPS ACCORDINGLY DURING THE EVENING. HMT-SOUTHEAST
PROFILERS IN THE FOOTHILLS INDICATE A VERY WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR
THE SURFACE BUT LIGHT WINDS BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE TERRAIN
ABOVE APPROXIMATELY 3K FEET. CAPE VALUES REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER
EASTERN ZONES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OTHER THAN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS.

AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE EAST COAST UPPER RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...LEADING TO A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING..CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK...AND MOVING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT ON MONDAY.

MEANWHILE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST. A
SURFACE LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH OFF THE FL COAST IS BEING
MONITORED BY NHC FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS...PRESENTING
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY
PRESENT...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED OF GREAT CONCERN. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE. DAYBREAK FOG WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...
AND RAIN SOAKED AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

INSTABILITY IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY GREATER ON MONDAY...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...STEERING FLOW REMAINS WEAK...AND HEAVY RAIN STILL
REMAINS A CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING CONVECTION PROVOKED BY THE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE. DESPITE LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF
THE UPPER RIDGE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER AS
THE AIR MASS MODIFIES AND SW FLOW ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY. FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A S/W WILL BE CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE HAVING
THE OPPORTUNITY TO INTERCEPT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT DID NOT HAVE THE ATMOSPHERE WORKED OVER DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. WE WILL THEN ALLOW POPS TO LOWER DURING THE
WEE HOURS MONDAY/PREDAWN TUESDAY...AS THE S/W PASSES BY AND
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.

ON TUESDAY WE ARE CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF DUAL AMPLIFYING TROFS TO
OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST...AND THE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. IT APPEARS WE MAY BE IN A CONVECTIVE LULL WITH INHIBITION
NOTED ON VARIOUS SOUNDINGS...EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE HAVE
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ALBEIT A TAD HIGHER IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE SOME MINOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS NOTED...AND
SWLY UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS. H85 THERMAL PATTERN SUGGESTS TEMPS ON
THE WAY UP TUESDAY...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NEARLY ALL GUIDE
TEMPERATURE PACKAGES.

ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION TUESDAY EVENING WILL END WITH LOSS OF
HEATING FOLLOWED BY FAIR SKIES.

A BIT MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY WITH LESS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...
CONSIDERABLE "FAT" LOOKING CAPE...AND SOME WEAK BOUNDARY DRIFTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE HAVE EDGED POPS UPWARD INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH A VERY WARM AND JUICY AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE.

MEANWHILE...APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 95 TO 100 DEGREES...IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC/UPSTATE
SC AND PARTS OF NE GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT STILL VERY GOOD ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR
THE MEDIUM RANGE. A SLOW-MOVING TROF AXIS SHUD ENTER THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY THURSDAY...THEN GRADUALLY CROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND EAST COAST FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. THIS TROF IS
EXPECTED TO PICK UP A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (WHICH MAY BE A TROPICAL
STORM OR HURRICANE BY THEN)...FROM THE FL ATLANTIC COAST REGION. THE
LATEST NHC FCST IS CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECMWF...WITH A LIKELY TROPICAL
STORM LIFTING NE JUST OFFSHORE...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR AREA FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. SO AT THIS
TIME...STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY DIRECT IMPACT FROM THAT SYSTEM. AS
FOR THE FRONT ITSELF...GUIDANCE SHOWS ENHANCED CAPE IN THE WARM
SECTOR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BNDRY...WITH DECENT QPF RESPONSE.
TAKING A BLEND OF WPC GRIDS AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS...POPS WERE
BUMPED UP TO HIGH-END CHC TO LOW-LIKELY FOR THURSDAY ACRS PRETTY
MUCH THE ENTIRE CWFA.

SOME DRIER AIR AND FALLING THICKNESSES SHUD RESULT IN ONLY ISOLD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO BELOW NORMAL
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...REMOVED -TSRA TEMPO FROM TAF.  CAPE IS MARGINAL FOR
CONVECTIVE STORMS AT THE PRESENT TIME AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT
DISPLAY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE AERODROME. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
WILL BE MONITORED AS THEY DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAKING
IT HARD TO PIN DOWN A DIRECTION. WIND SHOULD BE EITHER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR FAVOR AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. LAMP FAVORS SOUTH OF
EAST... SO THAT IS THE CURRENT DIRECTION IN THE TAF. DIRECTION
SHOULD BECOME SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AND TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY
MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF DAYBREAK FOG...BUT IF
RAIN FALLS TONIGHT... RESTRICITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IS ALREADY BOILING UP IN THE MOUNTAINS N OF
KAVL AND NW OF KHKY. THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ZONE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...AND CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
FEATURE WOULD DRIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS IN WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE CARRIED IN ALL THE TAFS. NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND SW ON
MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS MOST SUPPORTIVE OF FOG IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND RESTRICITONS WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL AT DAWN. IF
HEAVY RAIN FALLS AT FOOTHILLS SITES...RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR THERE
TOO. GUIDANCE DID NOT SUPPORT CIG RESTRICITIONS...BUT RAINFALL COULD
CHANGE THAT SITUATION AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH MORNING CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            22-04Z        04-10Z        10-16Z        16-22Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  97%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  92%     HIGH  84%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     HIGH  85%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  97%     HIGH  96%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  90%     MED   77%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...JAT/LGL
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JAT/LGL






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

 506 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN
HIGH AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING LOCALIZED
FLOODING EVENTS THIS EVENING. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON
MONDAY WITH A TREND BACK TO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 430 PM EDT SUNDAY... FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF CONVECTIVE STORMS
AND ASSOCIATED AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WERE MOVING INTO TO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IS FEEDING ON CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG IN A
TONGUE OF HIGH ENERGY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO WESTERN
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER WESTERN ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. HRRR HAS A
REASONABLE... BUT FAR FROM EXACT... DEPICTION OF THE CONVECTION. THE
HRRR TREND FITS THE FORECAST CAPE FIELD WHICH FOLLOWS A TYPICAL
DIURNAL DOWNWARD TREND AROUND SUNSET AND DURING THE SUBSEQUENT
HOURS. WILL LOWER POPS ACCORDINGLY DURING THE EVENING. HMT-SOUTHEAST
PROFILERS IN THE FOOTHILLS INDICATE A VERY WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR
THE SURFACE BUT LIGHT WINDS BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE TERRAIN
ABOVE APPROXIMATELY 3K FEET. CAPE VALUES REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER
EASTERN ZONES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OTHER THAN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE EAST COAST UPPER RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...LEADING TO A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING..CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK...AND MOVING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT ON MONDAY.

MEANWHILE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST. A
SURFACE LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH OFF THE FL COAST IS BEING
MONITORED BY NHC FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS...PRESENTING
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY
PRESENT...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED OF GREAT CONCERN. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE. DAYBREAK FOG WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...
AND RAIN SOAKED AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

INSTABILITY IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY GREATER ON MONDAY...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...STEERING FLOW REMAINS WEAK...AND HEAVY RAIN STILL
REMAINS A CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING CONVECTION PROVOKED BY THE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE. DESPITE LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF
THE UPPER RIDGE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER AS
THE AIR MASS MODIFIES AND SW FLOW ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY. FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A S/W WILL BE CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE HAVING
THE OPPORTUNITY TO INTERCEPT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT DID NOT HAVE THE ATMOSPHERE WORKED OVER DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. WE WILL THEN ALLOW POPS TO LOWER DURING THE
WEE HOURS MONDAY/PREDAWN TUESDAY...AS THE S/W PASSES BY AND
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.

ON TUESDAY WE ARE CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF DUAL AMPLIFYING TROFS TO
OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST...AND THE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. IT APPEARS WE MAY BE IN A CONVECTIVE LULL WITH INHIBITION
NOTED ON VARIOUS SOUNDINGS...EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE HAVE
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ALBEIT A TAD HIGHER IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE SOME MINOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS NOTED...AND
SWLY UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS. H85 THERMAL PATTERN SUGGESTS TEMPS ON
THE WAY UP TUESDAY...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NEARLY ALL GUIDE
TEMPERATURE PACKAGES.

ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION TUESDAY EVENING WILL END WITH LOSS OF
HEATING FOLLOWED BY FAIR SKIES.

A BIT MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY WITH LESS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...
CONSIDERABLE "FAT" LOOKING CAPE...AND SOME WEAK BOUNDARY DRIFTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE HAVE EDGED POPS UPWARD INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH A VERY WARM AND JUICY AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE.

MEANWHILE...APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 95 TO 100 DEGREES...IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC/UPSTATE
SC AND PARTS OF NE GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT STILL VERY GOOD ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR
THE MEDIUM RANGE. A SLOW-MOVING TROF AXIS SHUD ENTER THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY THURSDAY...THEN GRADUALLY CROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND EAST COAST FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. THIS TROF IS
EXPECTED TO PICK UP A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (WHICH MAY BE A TROPICAL
STORM OR HURRICANE BY THEN)...FROM THE FL ATLANTIC COAST REGION. THE
LATEST NHC FCST IS CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECMWF...WITH A LIKELY TROPICAL
STORM LIFTING NE JUST OFFSHORE...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR AREA FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. SO AT THIS
TIME...STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY DIRECT IMPACT FROM THAT SYSTEM. AS
FOR THE FRONT ITSELF...GUIDANCE SHOWS ENHANCED CAPE IN THE WARM
SECTOR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BNDRY...WITH DECENT QPF RESPONSE.
TAKING A BLEND OF WPC GRIDS AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS...POPS WERE
BUMPED UP TO HIGH-END CHC TO LOW-LIKELY FOR THURSDAY ACRS PRETTY
MUCH THE ENTIRE CWFA.

SOME DRIER AIR AND FALLING THICKNESSES SHUD RESULT IN ONLY ISOLD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO BELOW NORMAL
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...REMOVED -TSRA TEMPO FROM TAF.  CAPE IS MARGINAL FOR
CONVECTIVE STORMS AT THE PRESENT TIME AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT
DISPLAY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE AERODROME. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
WILL BE MONITORED AS THEY DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAKING
IT HARD TO PIN DOWN A DIRECTION. WIND SHOULD BE EITHER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR FAVOR AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. LAMP FAVORS SOUTH OF
EAST... SO THAT IS THE CURRENT DIRECTION IN THE TAF. DIRECTION
SHOULD BECOME SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AND TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY
MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF DAYBREAK FOG...BUT IF
RAIN FALLS TONIGHT... RESTRICITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IS ALREADY BOILING UP IN THE MOUNTAINS N OF
KAVL AND NW OF KHKY. THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ZONE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...AND CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
FEATURE WOULD DRIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS IN WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE CARRIED IN ALL THE TAFS. NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND SW ON
MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS MOST SUPPORTIVE OF FOG IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND RESTRICITONS WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL AT DAWN. IF
HEAVY RAIN FALLS AT FOOTHILLS SITES...RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR THERE
TOO. GUIDANCE DID NOT SUPPORT CIG RESTRICITIONS...BUT RAINFALL COULD
CHANGE THAT SITUATION AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH MORNING CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            21-03Z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-21Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  86%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  99%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  95%     MED   76%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...JAT/LGL
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JAT/LGL






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

 438 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN
HIGH AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING LOCALIZED
FLOODING EVENTS THIS EVENING. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON
MONDAY WITH A TREND BACK TO A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 430 PM EDT SUNDAY... FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF CONVECTIVE STORMS
AND ASSOCIATED AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WERE MOVING INTO TO
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION IS FEEDING ON CAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG IN A
TONGUE OF HIGH ENERGY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO WESTERN
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER WESTERN ZONES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. HRRR HAS A
REASONABLE... BUT FAR FROM EXACT... DEPICTION OF THE CONVECTION. THE
HRRR TREND FITS THE FORECAST CAPE FIELD WHICH FOLLOWS A TYPICAL
DIURNAL DOWNWARD TREND AROUND SUNSET AND DURING THE SUBSEQUENT
HOURS. WILL LOWER POPS ACCORDINGLY DURING THE EVENING. HMT-SOUTHEAST
PROFILERS IN THE FOOTHILLS INDICATE A VERY WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR
THE SURFACE BUT LIGHT WINDS BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE TERRAIN
ABOVE APPROXIMATELY 3K FEET. CAPE VALUES REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER
EASTERN ZONES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OTHER THAN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE EAST COAST UPPER RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...LEADING TO A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING..CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK...AND MOVING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT ON MONDAY.

MEANWHILE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST. A
SURFACE LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH OFF THE FL COAST IS BEING
MONITORED BY NHC FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE APPALACHIANS.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS...PRESENTING
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY
PRESENT...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED OF GREAT CONCERN. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE. DAYBREAK FOG WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...
AND RAIN SOAKED AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

INSTABILITY IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY GREATER ON MONDAY...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...STEERING FLOW REMAINS WEAK...AND HEAVY RAIN STILL
REMAINS A CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING CONVECTION PROVOKED BY THE UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE. DESPITE LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF
THE UPPER RIDGE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER AS
THE AIR MASS MODIFIES AND SW FLOW ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SUNDAY. FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A S/W WILL BE CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE HAVING
THE OPPORTUNITY TO INTERCEPT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT DID NOT HAVE THE ATMOSPHERE WORKED OVER DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY. WE WILL THEN ALLOW POPS TO LOWER DURING THE
WEE HOURS MONDAY/PREDAWN TUESDAY...AS THE S/W PASSES BY AND
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.

ON TUESDAY WE ARE CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF DUAL AMPLIFYING TROFS TO
OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST...AND THE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. IT APPEARS WE MAY BE IN A CONVECTIVE LULL WITH INHIBITION
NOTED ON VARIOUS SOUNDINGS...EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE HAVE
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...ALBEIT A TAD HIGHER IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE SOME MINOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WAS NOTED...AND
SWLY UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS. H85 THERMAL PATTERN SUGGESTS TEMPS ON
THE WAY UP TUESDAY...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY NEARLY ALL GUIDE
TEMPERATURE PACKAGES.

ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION TUESDAY EVENING WILL END WITH LOSS OF
HEATING FOLLOWED BY FAIR SKIES.

A BIT MORE INTERESTING WEDNESDAY WITH LESS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...
CONSIDERABLE "FAT" LOOKING CAPE...AND SOME WEAK BOUNDARY DRIFTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE HAVE EDGED POPS UPWARD INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH A VERY WARM AND JUICY AIRMASS STILL IN
PLACE.

MEANWHILE...APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 95 TO 100 DEGREES...IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC/UPSTATE
SC AND PARTS OF NE GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT STILL VERY GOOD ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR
THE MEDIUM RANGE. A SLOW-MOVING TROF AXIS SHUD ENTER THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY THURSDAY...THEN GRADUALLY CROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND EAST COAST FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY. THIS TROF IS
EXPECTED TO PICK UP A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (WHICH MAY BE A TROPICAL
STORM OR HURRICANE BY THEN)...FROM THE FL ATLANTIC COAST REGION. THE
LATEST NHC FCST IS CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECMWF...WITH A LIKELY TROPICAL
STORM LIFTING NE JUST OFFSHORE...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR AREA FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. SO AT THIS
TIME...STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY DIRECT IMPACT FROM THAT SYSTEM. AS
FOR THE FRONT ITSELF...GUIDANCE SHOWS ENHANCED CAPE IN THE WARM
SECTOR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BNDRY...WITH DECENT QPF RESPONSE.
TAKING A BLEND OF WPC GRIDS AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS...POPS WERE
BUMPED UP TO HIGH-END CHC TO LOW-LIKELY FOR THURSDAY ACRS PRETTY
MUCH THE ENTIRE CWFA.

SOME DRIER AIR AND FALLING THICKNESSES SHUD RESULT IN ONLY ISOLD TO
WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN A DEG OR TWO BELOW NORMAL
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...ALTHOUGH A BAND OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE WELL WET OF
THE FIELD...ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT SLOWLY EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CONVECTION WILL BE CARRIED
IN THE TAF. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER FORM NE TO SE THIS
TONIGHT...AND TO SW ON MONDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT
SUPPORTIVE OF DAYBREAK FOG...BUT IF ENOUGH RAIN FALLS THIS
AFTERNOON...RESTRICITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IS ALREADY BOILING UP IN THE MOUNTAINS N OF
KAVL AND NW OF KHKY. THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ZONE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...AND CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
FEATURE WOULD DRIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO THE FOOTHILLS IN WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE CARRIED IN ALL THE TAFS. NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND SW ON
MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS MOST SUPPORTIVE OF FOG IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND RESTRICITONS WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL AT DAWN. IF
HEAVY RAIN FALLS AT FOOTHILLS SITES...RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR THERE
TOO. GUIDANCE DID NOT SUPPORT CIG RESTRICITIONS...BUT RAINFALL COULD
CHANGE THAT SITUATION AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH MORNING CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  84%     HIGH  89%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  99%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  98%     HIGH  95%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     MED   69%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...JAT/LGL
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JAT






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 547 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...DISCUSSION VALID THROUGH 06Z

CONVECTION CURRENTLY JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF NASHVILLE PRODUCED
WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH AROUND THE LEBANON AREA LAST HALF HOUR
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ONE LEBANON OBSERVER MEASURED 1.22
INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN A 30 MINUTE PERIOD ENDING AT 530 PM CAUSING
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS. AS BE SEEN IN MOSAIC MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE CONVECTION IS NOW IN EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
ALONG PLATEAU. AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 ARE CURRENTLY FREE OF
CONVECTION. LOOKING AT LATEST RUC RUN MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AXIS IS
DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL TENNESSEE AS DEPICTED BY 700 MBARS BY WIND AND
HEIGHT FIELDS. SHORT WAVE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIP EASTWARD THIS
EVENING KEEPING CONVECTION CHANCES MAINLY EASTERN MIDDLE AND
PLATEAU AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z. AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 LIKELY
TO REMAIN DRY.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BOYD
01





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 349 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

DISCUSSION...
EARLIER MCS...WHICH PLAGUED WESTERN AREAS OF THE STATE...IS SHOWING
A DEFINITIVE DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR FURTHER
CONCURS WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. OTW...DISTURBANCE TO MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT AND SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE PLATEAU AREA. MODELS AGREE
WITH ELEVATING MOISTURE LEVELS TOWARD 12Z ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.
FURTHERMORE...DIVERGENCE FIELDS ARE FAVORABLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE EAST. SO ALL IN ALL...POPS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FROM 30-50%.
BEST CHANCE EAST LATE...BEST CHANCE WEST EARLY.

MOVING ON...MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A PATTERN CHANGE
THAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT. UPPER RIDGING...SW-NE IN
ORIENTATION...WILL TAKE HOLD AND ALLOW POPS TO DECREASE AND TEMPS TO
WARM. HOWEVER...CAPES WILL BE RATHER LARGE ON MON AFT...BUT THIS
WILL BE DISMISSED AS GFS DEWPOINT VALUES ARE OUT TO LUNCH. WILL THUS
FAVOR THE LOWER NUMERICALLY SUGGESTED DEWPOINTS...KEEPING THE CAPES
AT A MORE RESPECTABLE LEVEL. POPS FOR MONDAY WILL BE 20 PERCENT OR
SO. MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TRANQUIL.

ON TUESDAY...BOUNDARY WILL SAG OUR WAY IN THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF TN AS RIDGING TO THE SOUTH HOLDS FIRM. WILL INCLUDE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS NORTH ONLY FOR TUES AFT. A
SLIGHT CHANCE WILL ALSO BE INCLUDED FOR TUES NT AS WELL BUT THE
BOUNDARY DOES NOT LOOK AS THOUGH IT WILL MAKE IT THROUGH TN BEFORE
THURSDAY.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...A WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY IN
EARNEST ON MONDAY. MAV STILL REMAINS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH MAX TEMPS
SO WILL UNDERCUT THE NEXT 2 AFTERNOONS BY A COUPLE DEGREES. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL ALSO BE UP AS AFT DEWPOINTS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO 70
DEGREES. THIS WILL ACT TO KICK IN THE HEAT INDEX INFLUENCE...95 TO
100 IN THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE EXTENDED FCST...WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE POPS ARE SUPPRESSED. AT THAT
TIME...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY WITH PLENTY OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO WORK WITH. ON THURSDAY...MODELS WANT TO HURRY
THE FRONT SOUTHWARD BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERLY PRECIPITOUS. WILL
THEREFORE INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY. THIS
IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BECAUSE TEMPORALLY SPEAKING...THE GFS IS
LOOKING LIKE A REAL TRAIN WRECK IN TERMS OF PREDICTING THE TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT WAS TRENDING TOWARD DELAY AND NOW ITS
BECOMING FASTER.

MOST IMPORTANTLY...THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND LOOKS FABULOUS AT THIS
POINT. NO PRECIP CHANCES...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...HIGHS IN THE 80S LOWS IN THE 60S WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE
HUMIDITY. SHOULD BE NICE...BUT AS ALWAYS...WATCH OUT FOR THE MODEL
FLIM-FLAM WHICH CAN ALWAYS REAR ITS UGLY HEAD...CREATING THE NEED
FOR FUTURE FCST MODS.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      71  90  73  94 /  40  20  05  20
CLARKSVILLE    70  91  72  94 /  30  20  05  20
CROSSVILLE     67  84  68  88 /  50  30  10  20
COLUMBIA       71  91  72  95 /  40  20  05  10
LAWRENCEBURG   71  91  70  94 /  40  20  10  10
WAVERLY        70  91  72  94 /  30  20  05  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 1233 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ ANCHORED
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING. THIS PROLIFIC RAIN PRODUCING
MCS CONTINUES TO BE FED BY A NOCTURNAL 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
STREAK...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG... AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. LATEST WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE/88D VWP TRENDS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY BE
STARTING TO WEAKEN WITH CLOUD TOPS SLOWLY WARMING. SHORT TERM
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR SUGGEST THE MCS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT WILL MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS.

INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THE LATEST 12Z WRF AND PERHAPS THE 06Z GFS
INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS ANOTHER MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL WAIT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z
MODEL GUIDANCE TO ARRIVE BEFORE CONSIDERING ANY POTENTIAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE
BY 7 PM THIS EVENING.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH....

TODAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED FROM THE EASTERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS MOVING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. EARLIER CONVECTION HAS SET UP AN AREA OF RAIN COOLED AIR
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH RESULTING IN A SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN
ARKANSAS TO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. MEANWHILE A SWLY 35 KT LLJ IS
ADVECTING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THAT BOUNDARY GENERATING
NUMEROUS ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS...MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. THE 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP H20 VALUE OF 2.03
INCHES SO RAINFALL RATES ARE QUITE HEAVY WITH 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
COMMON. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN ANCHORED FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS AND CONTINUES TO BACK BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS. AS A RESULT DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE MIDSOUTH. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE THIS
MORNING...THOUGH CONTINUED THE WATCH THROUGH 00Z TO COVER ANY
AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT AS DEPICTED IN THE 05Z HRRR. BESIDES THE
FLOODING THREAT A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. OPTED FOR THE COOLER MET TEMPS TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIP. PRECIP CHANCES WILL START TAILING OFF FROM THE WEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INTO THE MIDSOUTH.

TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEAR THE TN RIVER FOLLOWED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST AND CLEARING SKIES. LOWS WILL BE MILD...LOWER TO MID 70S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND WARM AIR SURGES
INTO THE REGION. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS 925 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND
26C BOTH DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
THOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT ALOFT THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
QUITE HUMID WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S RESULTING IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY....AN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS KICKS
IT THROUGH ON THURSDAY. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM ON WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S SOUTH...COOLER ALONG THE MO/KY
BORDER. BY THURSDAY COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN
PUSHING TO THE SOUTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THIS PERIOD...INCLUDING
INDEPENDENCE DAY...LOOKS PRETTY SPECTACULAR ATTM. OF COURSE THAT
HAS BEEN SAID A LOT ABOUT BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS 6-7 DAYS OUT. THE
00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO THAT HELPS BOLSTER THE CASE
WHICH POINTS TOWARD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND DRY
N/NE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS COME TO AN END AT JBR...MKL AND
MEM...STEADY LIGHTER RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT MKL
WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TUP FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT PERIODS OF IFR TO MVFR VIS DUE TO
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...BUT PREVAILING VFR. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS LOW. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST
TENNESSEE...ESPECIALLY NEAR TUP AND MKL. WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR NOW
AT THESE SITES AND LEAVE MEM AND JBR RAIN FREE. LOW CLOUDS MAY
ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. PREVAILING WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY BUT LIKELY VARY IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-PRENTISS-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-
     TUNICA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$







FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE



 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER LAKE WINNIPEG AND AN OCCLUDED FRONT BOWING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA.  AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY IN A REGION OF MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ENE OVER NORTHERN IOWA.  STORM MOTION
WOULD TAKE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS CLUSTER OVER WAUSHARA AND
WINNEBAGO COUNTIES AFTER 4 PM IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER...WHICH IS NOT A
SURE BET.  NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE BY THE TIME THESE STORMS
ARRIVE.  MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH...SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IS RIDING
WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 90+ KT JET STREAK WHICH IS PUNCHING
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN FROM THIS SHORTWAVE...ONE WHICH PROMPTED A SVR TSTORM
WARNING. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE IS UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WHICH IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER N-C
WISCONSIN.  WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH...A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE AFTER
22Z.  IF STORMS DEVELOP...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT.  CONVECTION TRENDS ARE
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

TONIGHT...RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST TONIGHT THAT CONTINUES RIGHT INTO
MONDAY.  CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN IOWA WILL BE HEADING TOWARDS THE
ROUTE 21 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING.  OTHERWISE...A BEEFY 100 KT
JET STREAK WILL RESIDE FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...PLACING THE LEFT FRONT QUAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE BADGER STATE AT THE START OF THE EVENING.  SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER LAKE WINNIPEG
WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AT THE SAME TIME.  IF
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE SO A FEW STORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN...THINK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-EVENING.  JUDGING
BY UPSTREAM ACTIVITY...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  SOME OF THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD
SOUTHEAST INTO THE FOX VALLEY AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE IN THE
EVENING THOUGH FORCING WILL BE WEAKENING FARTHER SOUTHEAST.  STORMS
SHOULD BE WEAKENING MID-EVENING ONWARD DUE TO NOCTURNAL
COOLING...BUT A FEW ELEVATED STORMS COULD TAP INTO 2000 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE WHICH COULD BRING A LOW SEVERE CHANCE. THE UPPER JET
WILL BE SHIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL TAKE THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE WITH IT.  MODELS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO CONVERGENCE ALONG
AN UPSTREAM COOL FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SO ANY
LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE DEVELOPMENT AND
COVERAGE OF STORMS.  MUGGY AND BREEZY NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY...WEAK UPSTREAM OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST INTO
CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...PLACING EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE IN THE WARM SECTOR.  ANTICIPATE AREAS OF LOW STRATUS OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA TO START THE MORNING.  BUT WITH HEATING...MIXING
SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY.  FURTHER
HEATING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WILL YIELD 2000-3000 J/KG OF ML
CAPE DURING PEAK HEATING AND LITTLE TO NO CIN OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE WITH CURVED
HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTING A DISCRETE STORM MODE.  FORCING VIA MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS AND WEAK SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  THESE CONDITIONS
SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT LATE AFTERNOON ONWARD
OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN PENDING MORNING
CLOUDINESS/SHORTWAVE TIMING WHICH COULD DELAY THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION.  THREATS WILL INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT MONDAY EVENING
IS THE BIGGEST FCST CHALLENGE.

A WIDESPREAD SVR TSTM AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT OVER THE FOX
VALLEY/LKSHR ON MONDAY EVG AREAS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE CONTINGENT
UPON THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVMT OF A SFC WAVE ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF/GEM AND GFS ALL HAVE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A
SFC WAVE MOVG FROM FAR SW WI AT 00Z TO NE WI OR CENTRAL LK MICH BY
06Z...WITH STG 0-3 KM HELICITIES OF 300-400 MOVG THROUGH OUR SE
CWA DURING THE EVG HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45 TO 60 KTS WILL BE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVG IN
THE RRQ OF A 100+ KT JET STREAK WILL COMBINE THE APPROACHING FRONT
AND A DEVELOPING LLJ TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. SBCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG IS EXPECTED OVER THE FOX
VALLEY EARLY IN THE EVG...ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH
PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES AND H8 DEW POINTS OF +14 TO +18 C. HOWEVER...
THE NAM/SREF SUGGEST THAT THE SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
MAY GET HUNG UP NEAR THE IL/WI BORDER...AND FOCUS THE BEST SEVERE
WX AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHERN WI. THESE
DIFFERENCES COULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A TORNADO OUTBREAK
ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF GRB CWA...OR A GLANCING BLOW WITH SOUTHERN
WI GETTING THE BRUNT OF THE ACTION. HAVE KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS
OVER OUR SE COUNTIES...TAPERING BACK TO LIKELY/CHC CATEGORIES
FARTHER NW. HAVE KEPT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY...ALTHOUGH WILL
NEED TO WATCH THIS...AS THE ECMWF HAS PCPN LINGERING IN NE WI
PAST MIDNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED NW CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SFC
WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FCST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPS WILL BE FELT DURING THIS
PERIOD.

MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW QUICKLY THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH THE GEFS SLOWEST TO PULL THE HIGH
OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OVERALL...EXPECT A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  COMPLICATED FORECAST THOUGH FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.  SOUTHERN
EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW WILL GRAZE NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER N-C WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON IF THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS RATHER HIGH. IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
A FRONT OVER IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD TRACK TOWARDS THE FOX
VALLEY BY MID EVENING.  THESE STORMS COULD ALSO BRING DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.  ISOLATED STORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.  A MORE SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF STORMS
IS LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 1224 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

CURRENTLY WATCHING A SLOWLY DYING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING EAST AT 40-50MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST IA. SO FAR...IT HAS BEEN
WELL-BEHAVED WITH JUST SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PLAN ON THIS
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NOON HOUR...WITH MINIMAL SEVERE
THREAT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS WITH A 300MB JET MAX PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE OF ID INTO SOUTHWEST MT. RAP HAS THE NOSE OF THIS JET
MAX REACHING OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AIDING IN MID-UPPER LEVEL
LIFT. RAP IS ALSO SHOWING 0-1KM MLCAPE INCREASING INTO THE
1200-2500J/KG RANGE ALONG WITH 30-40KT IN THE 0-3KM LAYER. BUKFIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIS INSTABILITY MORE TIED TO MID-LEVEL
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH STORM BASES FAIRLY ELEVATED ABOVE
800MB. THEREFORE...BELIEVE SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH VERY MINIMAL
TORNADO THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DESPITE HAVING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST
EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN A REGION WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS REBOUNDING FROM THE SOUTH. 29.00Z GUIDANCE
STILL IS CONSISTENT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW RIDING UP
TOWARD A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY/DRY LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO NOSE UP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...EXPECT THAT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR TAKE
THE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BUT WEAKEN
IT AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST. WHILE 0-3KM MUCAPE APPEARS TO BE ON
THE WEAK SIDE AT 500-1000 J/KG...0-6KM SHEAR IS DECENT AT 30-40KTS
AND INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING...SO SOME ISOLATED HAILERS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY IS SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON
HOW LONG THE ENVIRONMENT CAN REMAIN CLEAR OF THE MORNING
CONVECTION GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS SINCE THAT WILL LIMIT
THE INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE 29.00Z GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TOWARD DAYBREAK
AND TAKING IT EAST THROUGH IOWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE ACTUALLY DEVELOPED AN MCV OFF OF
THIS CONVECTION AND TAKEN IT UP THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SHOULD THIS FEATURE FORM...IT WOULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD LIKELY LESSEN
THE SEVERE THREAT SINCE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BUILD MUCH
AND THE MID LEVEL JET STREAK MAY NOT BE IN YET. OTHERWISE...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL DRY LINE/BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE SURFACE
WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS IOWA TODAY. MOST
29.00Z GUIDANCE KEEP THIS FEATURE TO THE SOUTH BECAUSE OF THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION....SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
FEATURE AND SEE IF IT DOES MAKE IT FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

IF THIS MCV DOES NOT COME THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME HIGHLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
OF 2000-3000 J/KG INTO AT LEAST NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN...POSSIBLY EVEN FURTHER NORTH. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS A 500MB JET STREAK
ENTERS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS SHEAR
APPEARS TO BE SPEED SHEAR WITH SURFACE WINDS LIKELY BEING OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST IN THE MOIST SECTOR AND STAYING SOUTHWEST TO WEST
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. IF THE ENVIRONMENT IS ABLE TO
DESTABILIZE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL
OCCUR OVER NORTHEAST IOWA...POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...IN THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH INITIAL STORM MODE POSSIBLY BEING
SUPERCELLULAR BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE LINEAR MODE AS MOST
OF THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE IN THE LOWEST 3KM. THE NSSL WRF-ARW/NMM
SOLUTIONS ARE SOME OF THE MORE OMINOUS ONES WITH PUSHING THE EARLY
DAY CONVECTION OUT BY AFTERNOON AND THEN BACKING SURFACE WINDS
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WARM FRONT MAKING IT INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA. IF THESE SURFACE WINDS CAN BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT ALL...IT WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR TORNADOES AS THE 0-1KM SHEAR/HELICITY INCREASES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SO...WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AS ONE WOULD LIKE
AT THIS POINT...AM STILL THINKING THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY FROM 1PM TO 10PM WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE HAZARDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF A DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH. TIMING
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
LOCALLY AS CONVECTION MAY QUICKLY DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS WITH THERE NOT BEING MUCH OF A CAP IN PLACE. WITH THE
DEEP...WIDESPREAD FORCING COMING IN TO GO ALONG WITH A FAT CAPE
PROFILE AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING EVERYWHERE...WHICH MAY MAKE IT HARD FOR
STORMS TO START OUT AS SUPERCELLULAR AND INSTEAD START OUT
MULTICELLULAR/SQUALL LINE-ISH INSTEAD. SOME OF THE DETAILS WILL
STILL HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT AFTER THE CONVECTION PASSES
TODAY...BUT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY IN THE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF HIGH END
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

BEYOND THIS...COOLER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE OVER AS THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPS
DOWN FROM CANADA. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AS THIS
TROUGH DROPS DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

CURRENTLY WATCHING A DECAYING COMPLEX OF SHRA/TS PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST WI. OTHERWISE...FOCUS
WILL BE ON REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIPPLES THROUGH THE AREA. APPEARS BULK OF THIS
SHRA/TS ACTIVITY MAY BE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI AND
TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN WI...WITH KRST/KLSE IN MORE OR LESS
OF A LULL AREA. WILL GO WITH VCTS AT BOTH SITES FROM 29/21-30/02Z.
NEXT COMPLEX OF STORMS TO IMPACT THE AREA APPEARS TO BE MONDAY
AFTER 18Z. MORE DETAIL WILL BE PUT INTO THE TAFS WITH THE 30.00Z
ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FROM TODAY
THROUGH NOON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2014

MOST RAINFALL REPORTS FROM ACROSS THE REGION WERE IN THE HALF INCH
TO AN INCH RANGE...THOUGH THERE WERE SOME LOCAL 2-3" REPORTS THAT
CAME IN FROM THE STORMS LAST NIGHT. WHILE MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEY SHOULD STAY PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH
THAT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED ISSUES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. RIVERS WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI WHERE
MANY SITES ARE STILL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAS
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH