Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/28/14


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1112 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. NO BIG CHANGES ON FRIDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 90S AND LOWER 100S. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...AS EXPECTED, ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN FELL OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SPOTS PICKING UP EITHER A TRACE OR 0.01" TOTAL. CURRENT RADAR AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA. DID A MINOR FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE END OF ANY SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. SATELLITE DOES SHOW PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS AND THAT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF JUST 11C OFF THE KOAK SOUNDING, WILL LEAD TO OUR COOLEST WEATHER OF THE WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 60S AT THE COAST WITH MOSTLY 70S INLAND. LOOK FOR WARMER WEATHER STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BACK INTO OUR AREA AND 850 MB TEMPS GO BACK TO THE 25-27C RANGE. VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY THE THREAT OF GETTING TO HEAT ADVISORY OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING VALUES, SO SIMPLY LOOKS LIKE NICE AND VERY WARM WEATHER ON TAP. PEAK SHOULD BE ON MONDAY WITH THE COAST IN THE 70S TO MID 80S WITH INLAND CITIES LOOKING AT UPPER 80S TO AROUND 100. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE LAST HOUR AT KSFO...OAKLAND AND LIVERMORE. ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO THE LOW RESOLUTION GFS STARTED SHOWING SOME QPF DURING THE 6-12Z TIME FRAME AND NOW WERE SEEING IT DEVELOP. THE SHORT TERM RAP AND HRRR MODELS HAVE PICKED IT UP AS WELL WITH THE PRECIP BAND NOW HEADING OVER THE EAST BAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE KMUX-88D RADAR RETURNS IN VCP 12. ITS BEEN A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 60 WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY AREA AND LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF 500 MB JET MAX BEST EXPLAINS THE DYNAMICAL FORCING MOST LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR SCOPE. PER LATEST IR AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS THE RAP MODEL ANY DRIZZLE/SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE BAY AREA BY ABOUT 13Z THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THEN DECREASE WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7. ON FRIDAY THE FLOW WILL STAY ZONAL WITH RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. IT`LL BE DRY OVER THE BAY AREA WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY BUT THE FLOW WILL BE DISTINCTLY ONSHORE...KEEPING THE COAST COOL WITH MARINE CLOUDS WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO THE 80S. MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES TO LESS THAN 500 FEET. WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 90S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH HOT TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST WHILE LOWER 100S WILL OCCUR FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS. LATEST LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP WARM TO HOT WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS WHILE PUSHING THE WARM HIGH BACK TOWARDS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. && .AVIATION...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH HAS WEAKENED THE MARINE INVERSION...ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO MIX OUT TO SOME EXTENT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AND MARINE LAYER SHOULD BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED BY THIS EVENING AS WARMING BEGINS ALOFT. THESE DEVELOPMENTS ALONG WITH MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN EARLY RETURN OF LOW CIGS THIS EVENING...BY ABOUT 00Z NEAR MONTEREY BAY AND 02-03Z IN SF BAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS LOW. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY 02-03Z AND CONTINUE WELL INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE MEDIUM-HIGH THAT CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENING...BUT LOW ON ONSET TIME. CLEARING EXPECTED AROUND 18Z FRIDAY. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP AT KMRY BY 00Z AND KSNS BY 02Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS THEN CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WESTERLY AFTERNOON WINDS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15 KNOTS. && .MARINE...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE HAS WEAKENED WHICH WILL MEAN MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE SHORT TERM...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SOUTH OF POINT SUR. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. LIGHT LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RWW AVIATION: DYKEMA MARINE: DYKEMA VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
912 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. NO BIG CHANGES ON FRIDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 90S AND LOWER 100S. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...AS EXPECTED, ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN FELL OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SPOTS PICKING UP EITHER A TRACE OR 0.01" TOTAL. CURRENT RADAR AND ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA. DID A MINOR FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE END OF ANY SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. SATELLITE DOES SHOW PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS AND THAT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF JUST 11C OFF THE KOAK SOUNDING, WILL LEAD TO OUR COOLEST WEATHER OF THE WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 60S AT THE COAST WITH MOSTLY 70S INLAND. LOOK FOR WARMER WEATHER STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BACK INTO OUR AREA AND 850 MB TEMPS GO BACK TO THE 25-27C RANGE. VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY THE THREAT OF GETTING TO HEAT ADVISORY OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING VALUES, SO SIMPLY LOOKS LIKE NICE AND VERY WARM WEATHER ON TAP. PEAK SHOULD BE ON MONDAY WITH THE COAST IN THE 70S TO MID 80S WITH INLAND CITIES LOOKING AT UPPER 80S TO AROUND 100. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE LAST HOUR AT KSFO...OAKLAND AND LIVERMORE. ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO THE LOW RESOLUTION GFS STARTED SHOWING SOME QPF DURING THE 6-12Z TIME FRAME AND NOW WERE SEEING IT DEVELOP. THE SHORT TERM RAP AND HRRR MODELS HAVE PICKED IT UP AS WELL WITH THE PRECIP BAND NOW HEADING OVER THE EAST BAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE KMUX-88D RADAR RETURNS IN VCP 12. ITS BEEN A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 60 WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY AREA AND LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF 500 MB JET MAX BEST EXPLAINS THE DYNAMICAL FORCING MOST LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR SCOPE. PER LATEST IR AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS THE RAP MODEL ANY DRIZZLE/SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE BAY AREA BY ABOUT 13Z THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THEN DECREASE WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7. ON FRIDAY THE FLOW WILL STAY ZONAL WITH RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. IT`LL BE DRY OVER THE BAY AREA WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY BUT THE FLOW WILL BE DISTINCTLY ONSHORE...KEEPING THE COAST COOL WITH MARINE CLOUDS WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO THE 80S. MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES TO LESS THAN 500 FEET. WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 90S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH HOT TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST WHILE LOWER 100S WILL OCCUR FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS. LATEST LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP WARM TO HOT WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS WHILE PUSHING THE WARM HIGH BACK TOWARDS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. && .AVIATION...AS OF 04:45 AM PDT THURSDAY...FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED. INCREASED MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD PROMOTE MORE CLEARING TODAY THOUGH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP CLOUDS IN COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. EARLIER CLEARING ALSO POSSIBILITY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY MIXING OCCURS. VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR THIS MORNING. CLEARING FORECAST FOR 18-19Z...LOW CONFIDENCE. EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS LIKELY. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR TO PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS TO RETURN BY AFTERNOON. && .MARINE...AS OF 03:48 AM PDT THURSDAY...A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL LEAVE BEHIND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SOUTH OF POINT SUR. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. LIGHT LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RWW AVIATION/MARINE: AC VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
849 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2014 .Synopsis... Scattered light showers mainly over the mountains today, diminishing through the afternoon as a low pressure system exits the region. Dry weather and a quick warm up is in store for Friday through the weekend with hot temperatures expected by early next week. && ...Short Term Discussion (Today through Sunday)... Upper level shortwave will bring some lingering rain showers today, mainly to the mountains and foothills. These will diminish as the system exits the area later this afternoon. Radar shows heavier showers west of Mineral. The Sierra continue to see some rain showers, with a weather spotter in Kingvale reporting 0.23 inches overnight. Most of the Valley should be dry today, though an isolated shower could pop up later this morning in the northern Sacramento Valley. HRRR model shows precipitation largely ended across the forecast area by around sunset. Winds at the Delta have diminished as the pressure has weakened. Elsewhere, winds are a little breezier, and this will continue into the evening. Dry weather with temperatures warming about 20 degrees from today to Monday. Triple digit heat in the Valley is expected early next week, with maybe a slight cool down for mid week. Forecast is on track, no morning updates needed. EK .Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday) Surface high pressure pushing in over the Pacific Northwest will bring dry northerly surface flow while building upper ridging over the west coast will bring continued warming airmass. Daytime highs Monday will push to several degrees above normal with highs in the central valley reaching or exceeding 100 degrees. Little change is expected on Tuesday as the upper ridge begins to shift eastward. Extended models showing upper low approaching the Pacific northwest coast around Wednesday of next week. May start to see a little cooling as early as Wednesday but increased onshore flow may take a little longer to start taking effect. A more significant cooling in forecast for late next week as onshore flow continues and weak upper troughing takes hold over the west coast. && .Aviation... Upper level trough moves through Northern California today with generally VFR conditions except areas of mvfr conditions in the mountains with showers. Southwest wind gusts up to 25kts near the Delta and up to 35 kts over Sierra ridges. && .STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
818 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2014 .UPDATE... MID/UPPER LVL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING IS STILL PRODUCING ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA AND FROM MONO COUNTY EAST-NORTHEAST INTO MINERAL AND SRN LYON COUNTIES. THERE ARE ALSO LIGHT SHOWERS OVER AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EITHER TOO LIGHT OR LOW-TOPPED TO BE NOTED ON RADAR. WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE THE TROUGH STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA NOW. AS THIS PASSES THROUGH TODAY IT SHOULD SIGNAL THE END OF MOST OF THE PCPN AND A THINNING OF CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...NOT ALL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO DIMINISH UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ALSO START TO DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA THIS MORNING AND HANG ON TO CLOUDS A BIT LONGER THIS AFTERNOON. 20 && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2014/ SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH TODAY, AND IN MINERAL AND MONO COUNTIES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE WEST WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HOT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. SHORT TERM... SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED UP TO 0.10 INCH OF RAINFALL IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST CA AND FAR NORTHWEST NV, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS ABOVE 0.25 INCH NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY, AS A BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH PW VALUES FOR LATE JUNE MOVES THROUGH. FARTHER SOUTH, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WHICH IS CURRENTLY SPREADING RAIN INTO THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, MAINLY THROUGH 7 AM. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SIERRA CREST INCLUDING MAMMOTH LAKES, SO POPS WERE INCREASED IN THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS SLIM, UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR PRODUCING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THIS SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE SIERRA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST AIR MASS TODAY BUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH FROM RENO-TAHOE EASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NV. THESE WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS PYRAMID LAKE, LAHONTAN RESERVOIR AND WALKER LAKE SO LAKE WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED. SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS WILL PEAK NEAR 70 MPH THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. IN AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S. ON FRIDAY, LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE REGION. GUSTS MAY SURPASS 30 MPH AT TIMES, BUT THESE GUSTY WINDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BEGIN LATER IN THE DAY AND OCCUR FOR A SHORTER DURATION COMPARED TO TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START BUILDING OVER THE WEST AS THE WEEKEND BEGINS, WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING. MANY VALLEYS IN WESTERN NV SHOULD PUSH ABOVE 90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS AND TAHOE BASIN. MJD LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SET TO BUILD INTO THE WEST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SIERRA. THIS RIDGE WILL PUSH 700 MB TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN +16C AND +18C MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HOTTEST DAY LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY WITH THE 700 MB TEMPERATURES PEAKING AT +18C. WE EXPECT TO SEE OUR FIRST STRING OF 100+ DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SEASON. ALONG WITH THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ALWAYS COMES A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AND VORTICITY ENERGY COMING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. THEREFORE, DETAILS OF THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST WILL LIKELY GET WORKED OUT AS WE GET CLOSER, BUT FOR NOW THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON TUESDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO WESTERN NEVADA AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE 500 MB COOL ENOUGH TO LIMIT CAPPING. STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE TYPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONES OF LASSEN AND MONO COUNTIES, ALTHOUGH IF MID LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY (AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST), THIS COULD SPREAD THE STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE RENO-TAHOE AREA AS WELL. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT PAST WEDNESDAY, SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK. IT WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO MONITOR THIS BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE, ESPECIALLY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS GOING INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH GUSTY WINDS FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOON AVIATION... INCREASED MOISTURE IS BRINGING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA OF MONO COUNTY THIS MORNING AND NORTH OF KSVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD DECKS OVER KTRK AND KTVL SHOULD REMAIN VFR, ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM MIXED IN TODAY, ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION MODE EXPECTED. WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, WINDS SLOW AS RIDGING SURGES. RUNWAY TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY AND LIKELY IN TRIPLE DIGITS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOYD/HOON && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ004. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ002. LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ001. CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ072. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
540 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2014 .UPDATE TO AVIATION DISCUSSION. .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH A MODERATE COOLING TREND THROUGH TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AN UPWARD TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...EXPECT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES NOW APPROACHING MERCED COUNTY AS AN UNUSUALLY LATE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN AND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE HRRR MODEL BRINGS THIS BAND OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS FRESNO BY AROUND 800 AM. NOT REALLY TO CONFIDENT THAT MANY PLACES WILL MEASURE, RATHER SPRINKLES OR TRACE AMOUNTS AT BEST. SAME MODEL DISSIPATES THE FRONT BEFORE IT MOVES SOUTH OF FRESNO BY MID MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MAIN WEATHER PLAYER THIS FORECAST OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS AND THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL NOT BLOW CONTINUOUSLY FROM NOW THROUGH SATURDAY, RATHER THE TARGETED PERIODS FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE 2 PM TO 2 AM EACH DAY. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE WORDED AS SUCH. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, AFTER A FRONTAL AND MARINE AIR INFLUENCED COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY TODAY, THE FORECAST WILL GET HOT. SOME MODERATE HEATING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE MARINE AIR IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY MIXES OUT. MORE ROBUST WARMING TAKES PLACE ON SATURDAY WITH 100+ READINGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY. THE HOTTEST WEATHER WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHERE SOME OF THE TRADITIONALLY HOTTEST LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH 110 DEGREES. TIME TO GET READY FOR THE HEAT. && .AVIATION... WINDS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AND BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OF KERN COUNTY THROUGH 12 FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... PLEASE SEE SFOAQAHNX. && .CERTAINTY... THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH. THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD. CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR KFAT 06-26 108:1993 69:1913 77:1925 48:1965 KFAT 06-27 110:1925 76:1906 77:1973 51:1955 KFAT 06-28 108:2010 71:1952 77:1926 51:1906 KBFL 06-26 111:1925 75:1965 82:1925 41:1907 KBFL 06-27 111:1925 76:1996 80:2006 42:1913 KBFL 06-28 114:1976 74:1913 84:1925 40:1913 && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY CAZ095-098-099. && $$ PUBLIC...DUDLEY AVN/FW...DURFEE SYNOPSIS...PJ WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
452 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS OTHERWISE BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. NO BIG CHANGES ON FRIDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 90S AND LOWER 100S. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:33 AM PDT THURSDAY...LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE LAST HOUR AT KSFO...OAKLAND AND LIVERMORE. ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO THE LOW RESOLUTION GFS STARTED SHOWING SOME QPF DURING THE 6-12Z TIME FRAME AND NOW WERE SEEING IT DEVELOP. THE SHORT TERM RAP AND HRRR MODELS HAVE PICKED IT UP AS WELL WITH THE PRECIP BAND NOW HEADING OVER THE EAST BAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE KMUX-88D RADAR RETURNS IN VCP 12. ITS BEEN A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 60 WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY AREA AND LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF 500 MB JET MAX BEST EXPLAINS THE DYNAMICAL FORCING MOST LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR SCOPE. PER LATEST IR AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS THE RAP MODEL ANY DRIZZLE/SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE BAY AREA BY ABOUT 13Z THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THEN DECREASE WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7. ON FRIDAY THE FLOW WILL STAY ZONAL WITH RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. ITLL BE DRY OVER THE BAY AREA WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY BUT THE FLOW WILL BE DISTINCTLY ONSHORE...KEEPING THE COAST COOL WITH MARINE CLOUDS WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO THE 80S. MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES TO LESS THAN 500 FEET. WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 90S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH HOT TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST WHILE LOWER 100S WILL OCCUR FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS. LATEST LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP WARM TO HOT WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS WHILE PUSHING THE WARM HIGH BACK TOWARDS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. && .AVIATION...AS OF 04:45 AM PDT THURSDAY...FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED. INCREASED MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD PROMOTE MORE CLEARING TODAY THOUGH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP CLOUDS IN COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. EARLIER CLEARING ALSO POSSIBILITY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY MIXING OCCURS. VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR THIS MORNING. CLEARING FORECAST FOR 18-19Z...LOW CONFIDENCE. EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS LIKELY. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR TO PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS TO RETURN BY AFTERNOON. && .MARINE...AS OF 03:48 AM PDT THURSDAY...A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL LEAVE BEHIND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SOUTH OF POINT SUR. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. LIGHT LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW AVIATION/MARINE: AC VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
322 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH TODAY, AND IN MINERAL AND MONO COUNTIES THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE WEST WITH A RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HOT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. && .SHORT TERM... SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED UP TO 0.10 INCH OF RAINFALL IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST CA AND FAR NORTHWEST NV, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS ABOVE 0.25 INCH NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY, AS A BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH PW VALUES FOR LATE JUNE MOVES THROUGH. FARTHER SOUTH, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WHICH IS CURRENTLY SPREADING RAIN INTO THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IS PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, MAINLY THROUGH 7 AM. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SIERRA CREST INCLUDING MAMMOTH LAKES, SO POPS WERE INCREASED IN THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS SLIM, UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR PRODUCING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THIS SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE SIERRA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST AIR MASS TODAY BUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH FROM RENO-TAHOE EASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NV. THESE WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS PYRAMID LAKE, LAHONTAN RESERVOIR AND WALKER LAKE SO LAKE WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED. SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS WILL PEAK NEAR 70 MPH THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. IN AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S. ON FRIDAY, LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE REGION. GUSTS MAY SURPASS 30 MPH AT TIMES, BUT THESE GUSTY WINDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BEGIN LATER IN THE DAY AND OCCUR FOR A SHORTER DURATION COMPARED TO TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START BUILDING OVER THE WEST AS THE WEEKEND BEGINS, WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING. MANY VALLEYS IN WESTERN NV SHOULD PUSH ABOVE 90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS AND TAHOE BASIN. MJD .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SET TO BUILD INTO THE WEST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SIERRA. THIS RIDGE WILL PUSH 700 MB TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN +16C AND +18C MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HOTTEST DAY LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY WITH THE 700 MB TEMPERATURES PEAKING AT +18C. WE EXPECT TO SEE OUR FIRST STRING OF 100+ DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SEASON. ALONG WITH THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ALWAYS COMES A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INCREASED INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AND VORTICITY ENERGY COMING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. THEREFORE, DETAILS OF THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST WILL LIKELY GET WORKED OUT AS WE GET CLOSER, BUT FOR NOW THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON TUESDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO WESTERN NEVADA AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE 500 MB COOL ENOUGH TO LIMIT CAPPING. STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE TYPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONES OF LASSEN AND MONO COUNTIES, ALTHOUGH IF MID LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY (AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST), THIS COULD SPREAD THE STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE RENO-TAHOE AREA AS WELL. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT PAST WEDNESDAY, SHOWING A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK. IT WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO MONITOR THIS BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE, ESPECIALLY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS GOING INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH GUSTY WINDS FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOON && .AVIATION... INCREASED MOISTURE IS BRINGING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA OF MONO COUNTY THIS MORNING AND NORTH OF KSVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD DECKS OVER KTRK AND KTVL SHOULD REMAIN VFR, ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM MIXED IN TODAY, ALTHOUGH SHOWERS ARE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION MODE EXPECTED. WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, WINDS SLOW AS RIDGING SURGES. RUNWAY TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY AND LIKELY IN TRIPLE DIGITS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOYD/HOON && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ004. LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ002. LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ001. CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ072. && $$ FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
305 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH A MODERATE COOLING TREND THROUGH TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AN UPWARD TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...EXPECT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES NOW APPROACHING MERCED COUNTY AS AN UNUSUALLY LATE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN AND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE HRRR MODEL BRINGS THIS BAND OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS FRESNO BY AROUND 800 AM. NOT REALLY TO CONFIDENT THAT MANY PLACES WILL MEASURE, RATHER SPRINKLES OR TRACE AMOUNTS AT BEST. SAME MODEL DISSIPATES THE FRONT BEFORE IT MOVES SOUTH OF FRESNO BY MID MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MAIN WEATHER PLAYER THIS FORECAST OVER THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS AND THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL NOT BLOW CONTINUOUSLY FROM NOW THROUGH SATURDAY, RATHER THE TARGETED PERIODS FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE 2 PM TO 2 AM EACH DAY. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE WORDED AS SUCH. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, AFTER A FRONTAL AND MARINE AIR INFLUENCED COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY TODAY, THE FORECAST WILL GET HOT. SOME MODERATE HEATING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE MARINE AIR IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY MIXES OUT. MORE ROBUST WARMING TAKES PLACE ON SATURDAY WITH 100+ READINGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY. THE HOTTEST WEATHER WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHERE SOME OF THE TRADITIONALLY HOTTEST LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH 110 DEGREES. TIME TO GET READY FOR THE HEAT. && .AVIATION... LOCAL SFC WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS UNTIL 15Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... PLEASE SEE SFOAQAHNX. && .CERTAINTY... THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH. THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD. CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR KFAT 06-26 108:1993 69:1913 77:1925 48:1965 KFAT 06-27 110:1925 76:1906 77:1973 51:1955 KFAT 06-28 108:2010 71:1952 77:1926 51:1906 KBFL 06-26 111:1925 75:1965 82:1925 41:1907 KBFL 06-27 111:1925 76:1996 80:2006 42:1913 KBFL 06-28 114:1976 74:1913 84:1925 40:1913 && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY CAZ095-098-099. && $$ PUBLIC...DUDLEY AVN/FW...DURFEE SYNOPSIS...PJ WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
233 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS OTHERWISE BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. NO BIG CHANGES ON FRIDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 90S AND LOWER 100S. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:33 AM PDT THURSDAY...LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE LAST HOUR AT KSFO...OAKLAND AND LIVERMORE. ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO THE LOW RESOLUTION GFS STARTED SHOWING SOME QPF DURING THE 6-12Z TIME FRAME AND NOW WERE SEEING IT DEVELOP. THE SHORT TERM RAP AND HRRR MODELS HAVE PICKED IT UP AS WELL WITH THE PRECIP BAND NOW HEADING OVER THE EAST BAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE KMUX-88D RADAR RETURNS IN VCP 12. ITS BEEN A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 60 WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY AREA AND LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF 500 MB JET MAX BEST EXPLAINS THE DYNAMICAL FORCING MOST LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR SCOPE. PER LATEST IR AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS THE RAP MODEL ANY DRIZZLE/SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE BAY AREA BY ABOUT 13Z THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THEN DECREASE WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7. ON FRIDAY THE FLOW WILL STAY ZONAL WITH RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. ITLL BE DRY OVER THE BAY AREA WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING A FEW DEGREES BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY BUT THE FLOW WILL BE DISTINCTLY ONSHORE...KEEPING THE COAST COOL WITH MARINE CLOUDS WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO THE 80S. MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE MARINE LAYER COMPRESSES TO LESS THAN 500 FEET. WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 90S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH HOT TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST WHILE LOWER 100S WILL OCCUR FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS. LATEST LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP WARM TO HOT WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS WHILE PUSHING THE WARM HIGH BACK TOWARDS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. && .AVIATION...AS OF 10:22 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL USHER IN ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT. VICINITY OF KSFO...LOWERING CEILING IS FORECAST TONIGHT. TEMPO LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS TONIGHT. LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS WELL. && .MARINE...AS OF 1:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DECREASE WINDS TODAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND MONTEREY BAY. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 3 AM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW AVIATION: CANEPA MARINE: MM VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
307 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014 ...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS... DEW POINTS HOLDING IN LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THAN HIGH RES SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGESTED...WHILE THEY HAVE DROPPED DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WITH AXIS OF HIGHER DEW POINTS (50S) REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF KIOWA...PROWERS...AND BACA COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD YIELD UP TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE. 0-6 KM SHEARS INCREASE TO AROUND 30- 40 KTS BY 00Z...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HRRR WHICH ORIGINALLY KEPT SOUTHEAST CO DRY...HAS NOW TRENDED TOWARDS THE EARLIER RUNS OF THE RAP13 AND NSSL WRF...GENERATING STORMS ACROSS BACA/PROWERS COUNTIES BY 22Z...THEN MOVING THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO KS BY 02-03Z. LCLS WILL BE A TAD ON THE HIGH SIDE...SO MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING. ELSEWHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE PIKES PEAK REGION...BUT THESE WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING AND ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT RAINFALL POSSIBLE. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE ACROSS CO THROUGH THE DAY. TIMING OF THE TROF SUGGESTS GREATEST LIFT WILL BE DURING THE MORNING...AND MODELS DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS HIGH BASED...SO PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS...THOUGH WITH THE TROF MOVING THROUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM OR TWO OVER THE MOUNTAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME SMALL HAIL. WITH LCLS FAIRLY HIGH...THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ON BURN SCARS LOOKS LOW. IN FACT...TOMORROW RAISES CONCERNS FOR DRY LIGHTNING...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS TO MEAGER FOR COVERAGE TO WARRANT A DRY LIGHTING OUTBREAK. NONE THE LESS...FUELS STATUS PAGE INDICATES THAT CHAFFEE...LAKE...FREMONT...TELLER AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAINS HAVE DRIED OUT SUFFICIENTLY FOR FUELS TO BE CATEGORIZED AS CRITICAL. MEANWHILE...DRY LINE WILL MIX EASTWARD TO THE CO/KS BORDER...PUTTING RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER JUST OVER THE EASTERN BORDER INTO KANSAS. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE UPPER TROF...THIS LOOKS REASONABLY AND AGREE WITH SPC DAY2 THREAT POSITION. ANY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME PRODUCING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL. -KT .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014 ...WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND... FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...NO BIG CHANGES IN CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH DRY AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND PASSING UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED GENERALLY HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE. DRY AND WARM WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION HIGH BASED AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE 90S TO LOWER 100S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH PLAINS. WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED BREEZY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS...FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHICH HAVE NOT HAVE HAD MUCH PRECIPITATION RECENTLY. MONDAY-THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT POSSIBLE START OF THE SW MONSOON THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST....OWNING TO INCREASING AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITHIN WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASING STORM COVERAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AT THE TERMINALS...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING. UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AT ALL 3 TERMINALS. HIGH BASED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS. THIS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE KCOS AND KALS TERMINALS. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1056 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT NOW MORNING WELL EAST MONTAUK WITH NW FLOW HAVING DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION DEW POINT FALLING INTO THE MID 60S OVER THE WEST. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT/TROF NOW INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS BACKDOOR BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO EASTERN CT THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING A VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THUS EXPECTING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT AND AROUND THE NY METRO. TEMPS NEAR 80F AS OF 11 AM...EXPECT TEMPS NEAR 90 OVER NE NJ (NW FLOW) WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GETTING TOWARDS THIS IN THE CITY FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER - BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IT APPEARS CLOUDS WILL WIN OUT. NAM MOS NUMBERS FROM 00Z RUN LOOK A LOT BETTER THAN CURRENT GFS MOS AND LAMP MOS. IN FACT, LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 32C SURFACE TEMPS AT KEWR AND 31C AT KLGA. 12Z NAM STILL INDICATES 500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTM INITIATION ALONG CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. WITH AN INVERTED V ANY TSTMS THIS AFTN COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. THE JET DRAWS A BACKDOOR CDFNT THRU LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE. THIS BRINGS STABLE AIR IN FROM THE MARITIMES AND REDUCES THE TSTM AND THEN PCPN THREAT ACROSS THE AREA. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT PER THE LATEST DATA. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... A DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN AT THE MID LVLS. MARINE LAYER HOWEVER MAY BE TRAPPED. THIS IS WHAT THE MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST. ACROSS WRN ZONES...ENOUGH UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY FOR PERHAPS A SHRA...SO MAINTAINED LOW CHCS IN THE FCST. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS FRI NIGHT...ISOLD SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR FARTHER EAST. UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AS IT MOVES TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SAT MAY ALSO HELP GENERATE ISOLD SHOWERS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A TREND TOWARD VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDS SHOULD BEGIN ON MON AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS A LITTLE MORE TO THE SOUTH AND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO HELPS GENERATE MORE OF A RETURN SW-S FLOW. DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... MAINLY FROM NYC NORTH/WEST. BEST INSTABILITY AND CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK TO OCCUR ON WED AS THE LOW MOVES INTO QUEBEC AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES WEST FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MVFR STRATOCU STREAKS RISE TO VFR THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHRA DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ALONG SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...AND PARTICULARLY AT KGON WITH BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACH. POTENTIAL FOR TSTM AT KGON...LOW CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE. 8 TO 10 KT N/NW FLOW ACROSS METRO TERMINALS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS. SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AT SOUTH COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS COME AROUND TO THE N AND EVENTUALLY E/NE LATER TONIGHT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AFTR 18Z. ISOLATED SHRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFT 18Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED SHRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFT 18Z. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 20 AND 23Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AFTR 19Z. ISOLATED SHRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFT 18Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON... .FRI-SUN...VFR. .MON...AFT/EVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT PSBL ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BLW SCA LVLS THRU TNGT. WINDS BEHIND THE CDFNT THIS EVE HOWEVER WILL TURN TO THE NE AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO AROUND 25 KT. OCEAN SEAS AS HIGH AS 4 FT IN EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ON FRI SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MON NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... QPF FOR TODAY A MIX OF THE GEM AND SREF. BASIN AVE PCPN GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS...ESPECIALLY SLOW MOVING STORMS WHICH MAY HUG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE FLOOD THREAT IS VERY LOW...IT IS NOT ZERO FOR THIS REASON. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEREAFTER NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC NEAR TERM...TONGUE SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...GOODMAN AVIATION...NV MARINE...JMC HYDROLOGY...JMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
952 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT CLEARING EAST END WITH LIGHT NW FLOW SETTING UP. DEW POINT FALLING INTO THE MID 60S. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT/TROF NOW INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS BACKDOOR BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO EASTERN CT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON LEAVING A VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THUS EXPECTING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT AND AROUND THE NY METRO. TEMPS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE AS OF 9 AM...EXPECT TEMPS NEAR 90 OVER NE NJ (NW FLOW) WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GETTING TOWARDS THIS IN THE CITY FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. NAM MOS NUMBERS FROM 00Z RUN LOOK A LOT BETTER THAN CURRENT GFS MOS AND LAMP MOS. IN FACT, LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 32C SURFACE TEMPS AT KEWR AND 31C AT KLGA. NAM INDICATES AROUND 1000 J/KG SBCAPE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTM INITIATION ALONG CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. WITH AN INVERTED V ANY TSTMS THIS AFTN COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. THE JET DRAWS A BACKDOOR CDFNT THRU LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE. THIS BRINGS STABLE AIR IN FROM THE MARITIMES AND REDUCES THE TSTM AND THEN PCPN THREAT ACROSS THE AREA. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT PER THE LATEST DATA. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... A DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN AT THE MID LVLS. MARINE LAYER HOWEVER MAY BE TRAPPED. THIS IS WHAT THE MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST. ACROSS WRN ZONES...ENOUGH UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY FOR PERHAPS A SHRA...SO MAINTAINED LOW CHCS IN THE FCST. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS FRI NIGHT...ISOLD SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR FARTHER EAST. UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AS IT MOVES TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SAT MAY ALSO HELP GENERATE ISOLD SHOWERS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A TREND TOWARD VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDS SHOULD BEGIN ON MON AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS A LITTLE MORE TO THE SOUTH AND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO HELPS GENERATE MORE OF A RETURN SW-S FLOW. DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... MAINLY FROM NYC NORTH/WEST. BEST INSTABILITY AND CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK TO OCCUR ON WED AS THE LOW MOVES INTO QUEBEC AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHES. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COLD FRONT STALLS OVER EASTERN TERMINALS TODAY...WITH BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHING WEST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MVFR STRATUS THIS MORNING IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHRA DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ALONG SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...AND PARTICULARLY AT KGON WITH BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACH. POTENTIAL FOR TSTM AT KGON...LOW CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE. 8 TO 10 KT NW FLOW ACROSS METRO TERMINALS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS. SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AT SOUTH COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS COME AROUND TO THE N AND EVENTUALLY E/NE LATER TONIGHT. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AFTR 18Z. ISOLATED SHRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFT 18Z. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED SHRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFT 18Z. LOW PROBABILITY OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 20 AND 23Z. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AFTR 19Z. ISOLATED SHRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFT 18Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON... .FRI-SUN...VFR. .MON...AFT/EVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT PSBL ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BLW SCA LVLS THRU TNGT. WINDS BEHIND THE CDFNT THIS EVE HOWEVER WILL TURN TO THE NE AND MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO AROUND 25 KT. OCEAN SEAS AS HIGH AS 4 FT IN EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ON FRI SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MON NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... QPF FOR TODAY A MIX OF THE GEM AND SREF. BASIN AVE PCPN GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH. HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS...ESPECIALLY SLOW MOVING STORMS WHICH MAY HUG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE FLOOD THREAT IS VERY LOW...IT IS NOT ZERO FOR THIS REASON. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEREAFTER NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC NEAR TERM...JMC/TONGUE SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...GOODMAN AVIATION...SEARS/NV MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN HYDROLOGY...JMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
743 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NH...NORTHWEST MA AND NORTHERN CT THIS EVENING...THEN AFFECT MAINLY RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS ARRIVES THU NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 730 AM UPDATE... STARTING TO SEE CLOUDS LIFT AND BREAK UP ACROSS S NH INTO NW MA...THOUGH STILL NOTING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AT 11Z. ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAS FORMED...RATHER DENSE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. ALSO NOTING BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS RI/SE MA...ALONG WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS MOVING OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET. SHORT RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THINGS FAIRLY WELL...BUT DID DO A QUICK UPDATE ON THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BRING CURRENT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... VERY SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ON LIGHT S-SW WINDS. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SEEN ON LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS. SHORT RANGE MODELS...ESPECIALLY LATEST HRRR AND RAP13 DATA... INDICATING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS OVER ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THOUGH WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP. MOST OF THE ACTION LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS E MA AND RI INTO NE CT TODAY. LOW PRES WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH H925 JET AT AROUND 30 KT CROSSING EASTERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY WHICH WILL HELP ENHANCE MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL SET UP ACROSS RI/SE MA BY MIDDAY...WHICH WILL FOCUS THE POOLING HIGH DEWPTS AS WELL AS INSTABILITY...WITH K INDICES TO THE MID 30S AND CAPES UP TO 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THIS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST TOO LONG...FROM AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AS WELL AS BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. PRECIP SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE BY SUNSET. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS S NH/N MA RANGING TO THE LOWER-MID 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... TONIGHT...MODELS STILL SIGNALING SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH MAY SEE GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. MODELS SHOWING GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY...THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CAUSE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO REMAIN THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. ALSO NOTING HIGHER DEWPTS...HOLDING IN THE MID 60S...LINGERING ACROSS THE CT VALLEY SO MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOP THERE AS WELL. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN OVERNIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OUT OF QUEBEC...WHICH WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION ON N-NE WINDS. EXPECT SEA BREEZES ALONG THE SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMS... TOPPING OFF IN THE 70S WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE LOWER CT VALLEY POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * DRY AND MUCH LESS HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT * DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY * VERY WARM AND HUMID EARLY NEXT WEEK MODEL EVALUATION... GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH THE FINER DETAILS SUCH AS FRONTAL POSITIONS. THUS HAVE FOLLOWED THESE TWO DATASETS FOR THE BULK OF THIS FORECAST. FRIDAY NIGHT... LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS SETTLES IN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS WELL INLAND AND LIGHT N-NE WINDS ALONG THE SHORE. IT WILL BE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... CORE OF THE DRY/COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES OVER NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AND A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS BEFORE SUNRISE SAT IN THE U40S AND L50S. NOT AS COOL IN THE URBAN CENTERS WITH LOWS 55-60. STRONG LATE JUN SUN WILL QUICKLY WARM AIRMASS INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S...COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES. VERY COMFORTABLE WITH DEW PTS REMAINING IN THE 50S. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER. AS FOR SUNDAY MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST OF NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL YIELD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION SUPPORTING DRY WEATHER. STRONG JUN SUN CONTINUES TO WARM AIRMASS WITH 850 TEMPS CLIMBING TO ABOUT +14C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE MU80S...WARMEST TEMPS INTERIOR NORTHEAST MA WITH COOLEST TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS HIGH PRES SLIPS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SUFFICIENT SSW PGRAD TO OFFSET ANY SEABREEZES FROM PLYMOUTH MA NORTHWARD TO THE NH BORDER. THUS COULD BE VERY WARM AT BEACHES ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST. STILL COMFORTABLE WITH DEW PTS IN THE MU50S. EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS MAY HIT 90 AS GEFS 925 TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +22C. COOLER SOUTH COAST GIVEN SSW WINDS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY DRY WEATHER MON AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE BEFORE THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ARRIVES SOMETIME MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD A RISK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS HANGING ON THE S COAST THROUGH 13Z-14Z...THEN SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE. AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY MAINLY ACROSS E MA/RI/NE CT. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND OR AFTER 18Z. LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF PRECIP WEAKENING OR MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ACROSS E MA/S RI THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT THEN SHOULD IMPROVE. HOWEVER...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP WELL INLAND AS WELL AS EASTERN INTERIOR MA AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LEFTOVER ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE. FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR. KBOS TAF...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY MAINLY FOR TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AND ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 18Z...BUT LOW CLOUDS MIGHT LINGER NEAR THE TERMINAL AS N-NE WINDS DEVELOP. SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. KBDL TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO SHIFT TO N-NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE WATERS...MAY SEE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE N WIND TO BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TONIGHT...THEN WILL BECOME N-NE AT 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS UP TO 4 FT. MAY SEE 5 FOOT SWELLS WITH THE INCREASING NE FETCH ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS E AND S OF NANTUCKET. HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFTS FOR THIS. LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT N-NE WINDS IN PLACE WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. NE SWELLS UP TO 5 FT CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON THE OUTER WATERS E AND S OF CAPE COD. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... FRI NIGHT THRU MON...GREAT BOATING WEATHER AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT DRY WEATHER/GOOD VSBY AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH SLIPS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON YIELDING AN INCREASING S-SW WIND. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ255. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT NEAR TERM...EVT SHORT TERM...EVT LONG TERM...NOCERA AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG/EVT MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
543 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NH...NORTHWEST MA AND NORTHERN CT THIS EVENING...THEN AFFECT MAINLY RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS ARRIVES THU NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... VERY BUSY SHIFT THIS MORNING WITH FLOODING ACROSS WESTERN MA INTO S NH OVERNIGHT...THEN MORE HEAVY SHOWERS OVER NE MA AT 5 AM. VERY SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ON LIGHT S-SW WINDS. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SEEN ON LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS. SHORT RANGE MODELS...ESPECIALLY LATEST HRRR AND RAP13 DATA... INDICATING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS OVER ACROSS WESTERN AREAS THOUGH WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP. MOST OF THE ACTION LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS E MA AND RI INTO NE CT TODAY. LOW PRES WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH H925 JET AT AROUND 30 KT CROSSING EASTERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY WHICH WILL HELP ENHANCE MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL SET UP ACROSS RI/SE MA BY MIDDAY...WHICH WILL FOCUS THE POOLING HIGH DEWPTS AS WELL AS INSTABILITY...WITH K INDICES TO THE MID 30S AND CAPES UP TO 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THIS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST TOO LONG...FROM AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AS WELL AS BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. PRECIP SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE BY SUNSET. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS S NH/N MA RANGING TO THE LOWER-MID 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... TONIGHT...MODELS STILL SIGNALING SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH MAY SEE GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. MODELS SHOWING GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY...THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CAUSE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO REMAIN THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. ALSO NOTING HIGHER DEWPTS...HOLDING IN THE MID 60S...LINGERING ACROSS THE CT VALLEY SO MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOP THERE AS WELL. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN OVERNIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OUT OF QUEBEC...WHICH WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION ON N-NE WINDS. EXPECT SEA BREEZES ALONG THE SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMS... TOPPING OFF IN THE 70S WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE LOWER CT VALLEY POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * DRY AND MUCH LESS HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT * DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY * VERY WARM AND HUMID EARLY NEXT WEEK MODEL EVALUATION... GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH THE FINER DETAILS SUCH AS FRONTAL POSITIONS. THUS HAVE FOLLOWED THESE TWO DATASETS FOR THE BULK OF THIS FORECAST. FRIDAY NIGHT... LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS SETTLES IN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS WELL INLAND AND LIGHT N-NE WINDS ALONG THE SHORE. IT WILL BE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... CORE OF THE DRY/COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES OVER NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT AND SAT. HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AND A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS BEFORE SUNRISE SAT IN THE U40S AND L50S. NOT AS COOL IN THE URBAN CENTERS WITH LOWS 55-60. STRONG LATE JUN SUN WILL QUICKLY WARM AIRMASS INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S...COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES. VERY COMFORTABLE WITH DEW PTS REMAINING IN THE 50S. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER. AS FOR SUNDAY MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST OF NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL YIELD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION SUPPORTING DRY WEATHER. STRONG JUN SUN CONTINUES TO WARM AIRMASS WITH 850 TEMPS CLIMBING TO ABOUT +14C. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE MU80S...WARMEST TEMPS INTERIOR NORTHEAST MA WITH COOLEST TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS HIGH PRES SLIPS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SUFFICIENT SSW PGRAD TO OFFSET ANY SEABREEZES FROM PLYMOUTH MA NORTHWARD TO THE NH BORDER. THUS COULD BE VERY WARM AT BEACHES ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST. STILL COMFORTABLE WITH DEW PTS IN THE MU50S. EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS MAY HIT 90 AS GEFS 925 TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +22C. COOLER SOUTH COAST GIVEN SSW WINDS. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY DRY WEATHER MON AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE BEFORE THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ARRIVES SOMETIME MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD A RISK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG WITH A TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS RI/SE MA...WITH MVFR CIGS/MAINLY VFR VSBYS FOR MOST OTHER AREAS. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY HEAVIER LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS NE AND CENTRAL MA/S CENTRAL NH INTO N CENTRAL CT. MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS PRECIP BEGINS TO REFIRE. TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY MAINLY ACROSS E MA/RI/NE CT. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 18Z. LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF PRECIP WEAKENING OR MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ACROSS E MA/S RI THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT THEN SHOULD IMPROVE. HOWEVER...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP WELL INLAND AS WELL AS EASTERN INTERIOR MA AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LEFTOVER ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE. FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR. KBOS TAF...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY MAINLY FOR TIMING OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AND ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAINLY VFR ON FRIDAY. KBDL TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO SHIFT TO N-NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS/SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE WATERS...MAY SEE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE N WIND TO BRIEFLY GUST TO 25 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TONIGHT...THEN WILL BECOME N-NE AT 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS UP TO 4 FT. MAY SEE 5 FOOT SWELLS WITH THE INCREASING NE FETCH ON THE FAR OUTER WATERS E AND S OF NANTUCKET. HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFTS FOR THIS. LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT N-NE WINDS IN PLACE WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. NE SWELLS UP TO 5 FT CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON THE OUTER WATERS E AND S OF CAPE COD. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... FRI NIGHT THRU MON...GREAT BOATING WEATHER AS HIGH PRES CREST OVER NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT DRY WEATHER/GOOD VSBY AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH SLIPS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON YIELDING AN INCREASING S-SW WIND. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ254. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ255. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT SHORT TERM...EVT LONG TERM...NOCERA AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG/EVT MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1150 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER OFF THE COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN NEARBY HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO REACH OUR REGION BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINED AT THE CUMULUS LEVEL DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. AS A RESULT, THE SKY OVER MUCH OF OUR REGION WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON SO WE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST A BIT. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, SO WE WILL KEEP THEIR MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THE SHOWERS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE TRAVELING IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW. THE SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR TODAY. THE FLOW SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE SEA BREEZE FRONT FROM DRIFTING A FEW MILES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON AT MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... A SORT OF BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT AS THERE ARE SIGNS IN THE MODELS FOR A NNE FLOW DEVELOPING SWD FROM THE COAST ALONG WITH A BAND OF LOW CLOUD IN THE STILL HUMID LEFTOVER BL RH. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SHOWER OR ISOLATED TSTM ALONG AND N OF I78 THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FORMING BACKDOOR BOUNDARY. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE VALLEYS IF A LOW OVC DOESNT DEVELOP. AGAIN THE ELEMENTS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/26 GFS/NAM MOS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A RIDGE BUILDING UP ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IT WILL BE DIMINISHING AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS TROUGH AND SFC FRONT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY AND WINDS BACK AROUND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THE LAST OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST LATE IN THE DAY WHILE VERY WEAK IMPULSES EJECT THROUGH ITS BASE. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR INTERIOR AREAS AND BETTER HEATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW OCCURRING. SATURDAY - WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS RIDGING BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL HAVE SHIFTED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION PUTTING US IN THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME RING OF FIRE FLOW REGIME. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON SO WE CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING EACH DAY AS HEIGHTS RISE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE LOOK TO BE A COUPLE DAYS WHERE WE COULD EXCEED 90F WITH A RETURN OF THE MUGGY CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS AFTN...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT. NW WIND GUST 15 KT, SMALL CHC OF A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY VCNTY KACY LATE. TONIGHT...VFR SCT AOA 4000 FT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN A LIGHT NNE FLOW TOWARD 10Z FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY - MONDAY...VFR. CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES. SEAS AOB 3 FT. WIND GUSTS AOB 15 KT. A NW FLOW THIS MORNING MAY BECOME A SEABREEZE LATE TODAY THEN THE WIND PROBABLY TURNS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A SORT OF BACK DOOR COOL FRONT DEVELOPS. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY - MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. EXPECTING AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND SLOWLY VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 2-3 FEET BY THIS WEEKEND. && .RIP CURRENTS... THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF FREQUENT OR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS LOW TODAY BASED ON A 2 FT 5 SECOND PRIMARY SWELL AND AN UNDERLYING 1.5 FT 11 SECOND SWELL WITH A GENERALLY NW WIND OF 10 KT. WATER TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH THERE ARE POCKETS OF 60S. BE SMART...SWIM SAFELY...AND WHERE PATROLLED BY LIFEGUARDS. && .CLIMATE... RER DAILY RAINFALL FOR KTTN AND KABE YDY. THE JUNE MONTHLY AVG TEMPERATURE FOR PHILADELPHIA APPEARS LOCKED IN NEAR 1 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...O`HARA NEAR TERM...IOVINO SHORT TERM...DRAG LONG TERM...HEAVENER/O`HARA AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA RIP CURRENTS...DRAG CLIMATE...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
942 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN NEARBY HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO REACH OUR REGION BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN OUR REGION CONTINUED TO LIFT SLOWLY AT MID MORNING IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD VARY BETWEEN SCATTERED AND BROKEN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOME OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, SO WE WILL KEEP THEM IN THE FORECAST. THE SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR TODAY. THE FLOW SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE SEA BREEZE FRONT FROM DRIFTING A FEW MILES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON AT MOST LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... A SORT OF BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT AS THERE ARE SIGNS IN THE MODELS FOR A NNE FLOW DEVELOPING SWD FROM THE COAST ALONG WITH A BAND OF LOW CLOUD IN THE STILL HUMID LEFTOVER BL RH. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SHOWER OR ISOLATED TSTM ALONG AND N OF I78 THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FORMING BACKDOOR BOUNDARY. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE VALLEYS IF A LOW OVC DOESNT DEVELOP. AGAIN THE ELEMENTS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/26 GFS/NAM MOS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A RIDGE BUILDING UP ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IT WILL BE DIMINISHING AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS TROUGH AND SFC FRONT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY AND WINDS BACK AROUND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THE LAST OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST LATE IN THE DAY WHILE VERY WEAK IMPULSES EJECT THROUGH ITS BASE. WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR INTERIOR AREAS AND BETTER HEATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW OCCURRING. SATURDAY - WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS RIDGING BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL HAVE SHIFTED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION PUTTING US IN THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME RING OF FIRE FLOW REGIME. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON SO WE CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING EACH DAY AS HEIGHTS RISE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE LOOK TO BE A COUPLE DAYS WHERE WE COULD EXCEED 90F WITH A RETURN OF THE MUGGY CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH 15Z...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT. AFTER 15Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT. NW WIND GUST 15 KT, SMALL CHC OF A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY VCNTY KACY LATE. TONIGHT...VFR SCT AOA 4000 FT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN A LIGHT NNE FLOW TOWARD 10Z FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY - MONDAY...VFR. CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... NO HEADLINES. SEAS AOB 3 FT. WIND GUSTS AOB 15 KT. A NW FLOW THIS MORNING MAY BECOME A SEABREEZE LATE TODAY THEN THE WIND PROBABLY TURNS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A SORT OF BACK DOOR COOL FRONT DEVELOPS. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY - MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. EXPECTING AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND SLOWLY VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 2-3 FEET BY THIS WEEKEND. && .RIP CURRENTS... THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF FREQUENT OR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS LOW TODAY BASED ON A 2 FT 5 SECOND PRIMARY SWELL AND AN UNDERLYING 1.5 FT 11 SECOND SWELL WITH A GENERALLY NW WIND OF 10 KT. WATER TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH THERE ARE POCKETS OF 60S. BE SMART...SWIM SAFELY...AND WHERE PATROLLED BY LIFEGUARDS. && .CLIMATE... RER DAILY RAINFALL FOR KTTN AND KABE YDY. THE JUNE MONTHLY AVG TEMPERATURE FOR PHILADELPHIA APPEARS LOCKED IN NEAR 1 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...O`HARA NEAR TERM...IOVINO SHORT TERM...DRAG LONG TERM...HEAVENER/O`HARA AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA RIP CURRENTS...DRAG CLIMATE...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
323 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 .DISCUSSION... TONIGHT...MID TO LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED INITIALLY WEST OF I-95 AND OVER THE INTERIOR AS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WL FORCE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. LTST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW A LATE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH SLY MOTION ASSISTED BY NUMEROUS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THROUGH AROUND 9 PM. FRI-SAT...PRESENCE OF A SFC TROUGH ALONG THE MID ATLC SEABOARD INTO THE CENTRAL FL AREA WL ACT TO SUPPRESS HIGH PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. DEVELOPMENT OF SCT STORMS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST LOCALLY. A CONTINUATION OF N TO NNW STEERING LEVEL WINDS WL KEEP A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN PLACE WITH LATE DIURNALLY FORCED STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE AREAS SOUTH OF METRO ORLANDO TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE INCLUDING THE TREASURE/SPACE COASTS. COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE MID SCT RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER AMTS NORTH OF ORLANDO DUE TO SOME DRYING. SUN-WED...(FROM PREV DISC) THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST IS FORECAST BY THE GFS AS WELL AS RECENT DEPICTIONS OF THE ECMWF TO SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE GA/FL COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. WILL KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AREAWIDE WITH WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. && .AVIATION... THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD INITIATE TS ALNG TO W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...AFT 26/21Z SCT IFR TSRAS DVLPG INTERIOR MVG S/SE NR 15KTS. ISOLD IFR TSRAS DVLPG ALNG THE SEA BREEZE W OF KMLB-KOBE MVG S 10TO 15KTS. AFT 26/22Z...ISOLD IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA...SFC WND G35KTS+...CONTG THRU 27/02Z. AFT 27/02Z...BCMG VFR ALL SITES...SFC WNDS LGT/VRBL. && .MARINE...TONIGHT-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE OFFSHORE BREEZE. PRIMARY MARINE WX HAZARD WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING TSTMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. FRI-FRI NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. LIGHT OFFSHORE MORNING WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...BECOMING OFFSHORE AGAIN IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS AOB 10 KTS. SEAS AOB 3 FT. PRIMARY MARINE WX HAZARD WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SAT-SUN...THE RIDGE AXIS GETS NUDGED FURTHER SOUTHWARD WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. LIGHT OFFSHORE MORNING/EVENING FLOW WITH ONSHORE FLOW SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN EACH DAY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE FORMATION. AGAIN WINDS MAINLY AOB 10 KTS. SEAS AOB 3 FT. THE MAIN MARINER HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DUE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 94 74 94 / 30 30 30 30 MCO 75 94 75 95 / 30 40 30 40 MLB 74 92 74 91 / 30 40 30 30 VRB 73 92 74 91 / 30 40 30 30 LEE 76 95 77 94 / 30 30 30 40 SFB 76 95 77 96 / 30 40 30 40 ORL 77 95 78 96 / 30 40 30 40 FPR 72 90 72 91 / 30 40 30 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...PENDERGRAST RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
204 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PUSHING NEWD OVER THE FL PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL GA AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLC. A SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE MID ATLC COAST S INTO NE FL. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SUBDUED TODAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING...AND ATLC SEA BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE CROSSING THE BIG BEND INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTN. HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY INCREASING AFTER 3 PM OVER THE SRN TIER AND MARCHING EWD. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE WHEN THE SEA BREEZES CONVERGE OVER THE ERN COUNTIES LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE IN THE 5-8 PM TIME FRAME. WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE MAIN CONCERN. UPR RIDGING SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRI/SAT. LOW-LEVEL NW FLOW WILL KEEP EAST COAST SEA BREEZE GENERALLY E OF I-95 CORRIDOR. MOIST AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/T-STORMS BOTH DAYS. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN MID 90S WELL INLAND... LOW 90S NEAR COAST...LOWS BOTH NIGHTS LOW 70S INLAND...MID 70S COAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM....SUN THRU WED... GFS/ECM SHOW WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF COAST OF SC SUNDAY... THEN DIFFER ON FUTURE OF WEAK SYSTEM. ECM MOVES IT SW TOWARD AND OVER NRN FL...WHILE NEW GFS STALL WEAK LOW OVER GULF STREAM SUN/MON. OTHER MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. FOR THIS FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWED WEAKER GFS SOLUTION OF STALLED WEAK LOW WELL OFFSHORE OF GA...WITH WEAK EAST TO NORTH FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND CIRCULATION. OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WITH MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE...THOUGH SLIGHT COOLING TO AROUND NORMAL POSSIBLE EASTERN COUNTIES IF WEAK OFFSHORE LOW GENERATES NE ONSHORE FLOW ALONG SE GA/NE FL COASTLINE. && .AVIATION... PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN VICINITY OF TSRA WHICH ARE FORECAST FOR LATE AFTN BEGINNING 21Z THROUGH 01Z. A SEA BREEZE WILL SHIFT WINDS BRIEFLY TO SE AT CRG AND SSI. THE SBRZ MAY REACH JAX AROUND 23Z. && .MARINE... A GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS SFC RIDGE REMAINS S OF THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A TROUGH/SFC LOW E OF ST AUGUSTINE. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY STRONGER N TO NE FLOW OVER THE AREA SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL SHOW ONSHORE WINDS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 71 93 70 94 / 20 20 20 20 SSI 76 90 76 92 / 20 20 20 20 JAX 73 93 73 95 / 30 30 30 30 SGJ 75 90 75 92 / 30 30 30 30 GNV 72 93 71 95 / 30 30 30 20 OCF 72 93 71 95 / 30 30 30 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ TRABERT/WOLF/
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
921 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 .DISCUSSION... ...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING... LTST SOUNDING DATA FROM TBW SHOWED MOISTURE JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS (-1.6"). THE EARLY INHIBITION TO VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD BE OVERCOME DURING AFTN DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT (NR -9C @H5) ALONG WITH AMPLE SFC HEATING. A LOOK AT THE LTST HRRR GUID SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ROBUST BOUNDARY INITIATED CONVECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ALONG THE INLAND DRIFTING ECSB THEN ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT FOCUSING INLAND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES INCLUDING THE WEST COAST BOUNDARY MERGES OVER THE INTERIOR TOWARD DUSK. NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE PLANNED. TODAY-TONIGHT...(PREV DISC) SPLIT IN SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE VICINITY FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL PROVIDE A DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. HOWEVER THIS WILL ACTUALLY ADVECT HIGHER MOISTURE THAT IS RESIDING FROM THE GULF COAST TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER STARTING OFF NEAR 1.95 INCHES IN THE NORTH AND THEN INCREASES MOISTURE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 500 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST AT MINUS 8 TO 9 DEGREES AND MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER-MID 90S SO INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT. WESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD DELAY THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...BUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON IT WILL START TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND. THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS USUALLY NOT A HIGH COVERAGE ONE BUT PARAMETERS POINT TO A RETURN TO SCATTERED POPS. THE EXACT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS NOT CERTAIN BUT IN GENERAL...NORTHWEST FLOW CAN RESULT IN QUITE STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL DRY AIR. WOULD EXPECT THE EARLIEST STORMS TO GET GOING IN THE NORTH AND MOVE/PROPAGATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING AND THE GFS SHOWS PRECIP THROUGH 12Z FRI. THE GFS AND NAM POPS ACTUALLY INCREASE AFTER 00Z. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGH 06Z...WHICH IS LATER THAN NORMAL DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EVENING STORMS. STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. && .MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...OFFSHORE WIND FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE COAST. SEAS WILL BE RATHER FLAT AT 2 FEET OR LESS. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STRONG WINDS COULD MOVE WELL OUT AWAY FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. WOULD EXPECT A FEW SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS TO BECOME NECESSARY. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ JP/RW/AB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
445 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER SC AND ALONG THE NE FL COAST MOVING EWD WHILE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. PWATS ARE STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 1.8 INCHES BASED ON GPS MET AND BLENDED TOTAL PWAT IMAGERY THOUGH SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MOVED INTO THE NRN ZONES OVER THE PAST 6 HRS IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS. WEAK SFC RIDGE AROUND 1020 MB NOTED OVER S CENTRAL FL AND A SW-NE WEAK TROUGH IS OVER ERN GA AND SC. .SHORT TERM... TODAY...A FAIRLY SIMILAR SET UP WITH SFC FEATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH PREVAILING WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...IF NOT A BIT MORE NW DUE TO SFC HIGH IN THE NE GULF. THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE A BIT MORE SUBDUED WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING INCREASING A BIT MORE OVER THE AREA...WITH A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH SE GA LATER TONIGHT. APPEARS MAIN MESOSCALE TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE A DOMINANT W COAST SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL GET A FAIRLY EARLY START DUE TO THE INCREASED WLY FLOW. ANTICIPATE INCREASED LLVL CONVERGENCE OVER THE ERN ZONES THIS AFTN/EVENING DUE TO ATLC WEAK SEA BREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COAST. BASED ON HI RES MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE WILL ADVERTISE POPS NEAR 30-40% FOR TODAY...CLOSE TO JUNE AVERAGES. DEEPEST CONVECTIVE CELLS PROBABLY NOT OCCURRING UNTIL AFTER 3-4 PM AS AIRMASS WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE BY THAT TIME WITH SBCAPE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 2500-3200 J/KG AND VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION (CIN). SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY NOT ENDING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. ENHANCED CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE NEAR AND SE OF A LINE FROM GNV TO JAX...GIVEN THE WNW FLOW PATTERN. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WITH HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT CLOSE TO 105 IN A FEW LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. FRI-SAT NIGHT...STAGNANT AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED...AS DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION AND SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES ALL THE WAY TO THE BEACHES. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR (PWAT) VALUES WILL ADVECT INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO WIDELY SCATTERED WHERE A POTENTIAL GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE COLLISION OCCURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE ST. JOHNS BASIN/INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THIS DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIR MASS THAT WILL RESIDE OVER OUR REGION. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL SHIFT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE MID-EVENING HOURS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S INLAND AND LOWER 90S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DRY AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS IN CHECK...WITH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 EXPECTED FRI/SAT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...DEPICTING RIDGING ALOFT RETROGRADING SLOWLY WESTWARD...WHICH ALLOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON FRI TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY LATE SAT. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED ON SUN NEAR THE GULF STREAM OFF THE SC/GA COAST...WITH THIS FEATURE THEN POTENTIALLY STEERED SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF RIDGING ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ASSIGNING A 20 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUN...AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY MON AND TUES AS LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY IMPACTS OUR REGION FROM THE EAST. TRICKY FORECAST LOCALLY FOR SUN AS DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE POSSIBLY INCREASES FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WILL WAIT FOR MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE RAMPING POPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY ON SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 90S INLAND...AND NEAR 90 AT THE COAST. SIDED WITH WETTER AND COOLER 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF GUIDANCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT KEPT MAINLY DIURNAL SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR NOW...AWAITING RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. DECIDED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE...GENERALLY UPPER 80S. LONG-TERM GUIDANCE INSISTS THAT ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE FL PENINSULA TOWARDS MID-WEEK...BUT THE LINGERING SURFACE LOW DEPICTED BY 00Z ECMWF COMPLICATES THE LONG-TERM FORECAST FOR LATER NEXT WEEK. AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS (UPPER 80S/NEAR 90) MAINTAINED DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN OUR LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN. A MORE TROPICAL AIR MASS SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. && .AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT VQQ THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. VFR EXPECTED TODAY AND TSTMS CHANCES AROUND THE 30-40% RANGE THIS AFTN...WILL MAINTAIN JUST VICINITY WORDING. WNW FLOW NEAR 10 KT OR LESS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE W AND SW LATER IN THE DAY AND ONLY BRIEF SLY WINDS POSSIBLE AT CRG AND SSI 18Z-00Z AS THE ATLC SEA BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH INLAND DUE TO THE PREVAILING WLY FLOW. && .MARINE...A GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY AS SFC RIDGE REMAINS S OF THE AREA. A COMPLICATING FACTOR LATER IN THE MARINE FORECAST AROUND SUN TO MON TIME FRAME IS A TROUGH/SFC LOW THAT MODELS DEPICT ABOUT 150-200 MILES E OF ST AUGUSTINE. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY STRONGER N TO NE FLOW OVER THE AREA SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS MODERATE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS FCST ATTM. NO HEADLINES REQUIRED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RIP CURRENTS...A LOW RISK CONTINUES WITH SURF LESS THAN 2 FT WITH A WEAK ELY SWELL NEAR 1 FT. SLIGHTLY BUMP UP IN ESE SWELL POSSIBLE BY FRI BUT IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CHANGE TO MODERATE RISK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 94 71 93 70 / 30 30 20 20 SSI 90 76 90 76 / 30 30 20 20 JAX 94 73 94 73 / 40 30 30 30 SGJ 92 75 91 75 / 40 40 30 30 GNV 93 72 94 71 / 40 40 20 20 OCF 93 72 94 71 / 40 40 20 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHASHY/NELSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
359 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]... Confidence is lower than normal for the first 12-18 hours of the forecast. Once again in the early morning hours (as was the case yesterday morning), a broken line of thunderstorms was advancing east along the northern Gulf coast and approaching our area. None of the models are representing this well; with the initial conditions already considerably different than the models, there are questions as to how convective development will evolve through the day. With showers and storms already approaching, PoPs were bumped up in the 09-15Z timeframe, particularly in our Florida zones and west of the Apalachicola River (up to 40-50%). These thunderstorms may diminish over the next several hours as they move east, similar to yesterday. The MCS maintenance parameter is only around 10% over our area, there is limited wind shear, and instability is lower to the east per RAP analysis. Given the very early arrival of storms, there should be enough time during the morning and early afternoon for cloud debris and any lingering showers and storms to clear. Thus, we did not deviate much from model consensus high temperatures which are in the low-mid 90s. There should also be sufficient time for convection to redevelop in the afternoon hours, and PoPs in that timeframe were kept close to climatological normals (40%). .Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]... Afternoon convection will be on the decrease through the short term as a fairly large ridge over the GoM intensifies and persists in the northern GoM through Sunday. Because we won`t be directly under the ridge, isolated thunderstorms can not be ruled out, but warm temperatures will be abundant. Expecting PoP coverage both days near 15-20%. As is the case in the summer, any lack of precipitation will tend to yield higher afternoon temps, and this is what is forecasted through Saturday. Most areas except for extreme northwestern parts of the forecast area (Dothan) will be in the middle 90s, with upper 90s attainable in warmer spots and rain/cloud-free regions on Friday and Saturday. Apparent temperatures are not expected to reach heat advisory criteria through the short-term but it is worth watching, especially if some locations fail to mix well into lower dewpoints. .Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... Until some possible upper level trofing moves in from the SE by very late in the period (next Wed. or Thu.), a very prolonged stretch of upper level ridging should be in command of the SE U.S. With the aid of weak surface high pressure as well, this pattern should result in an extended period of hot and humid weather for the region, with just isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will likely range from the lower 90s along the coast to the mid to upper 90s well inland. && .Aviation... [Through 06Z Friday] VFR conditions should prevail through much of the period. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible, particularly in the afternoon hours, with IFR VIS possible with the storms. Some MVFR/IFR CIGS will be possible early this morning at ECP, but may be somewhat intermittent. Increasing high clouds at the moment should limit fog potential at all of the terminals, although some brief fog can`t be ruled out between 09Z and 13Z. && .Marine... A fairly typical summertime pattern will result in light winds and low seas outside of convection throughout the next several days. && .Fire Weather... Red flag conditions are not expected, although slightly hotter and drier conditions are forecast this weekend into early next week. && .Hydrology... No significant widespread precipitation is expected across the hydrological service area during the next several days. Therefore, all area rivers and streams are expected to remain at low flows for the near future. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 94 71 95 71 96 / 40 20 20 10 20 Panama City 89 75 89 75 89 / 40 20 20 20 20 Dothan 92 71 94 72 97 / 50 20 30 20 20 Albany 94 72 94 72 96 / 40 20 20 20 20 Valdosta 96 70 96 70 96 / 40 20 20 20 20 Cross City 93 73 94 70 96 / 30 20 20 20 20 Apalachicola 90 75 89 73 89 / 30 10 10 20 20 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS LONG TERM...GOULD AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS HYDROLOGY...GOULD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
202 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 .AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED. TODAY SHOULD UNFOLD SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...WITH SEA BREEZES ON BOTH COASTS BY AFTERNOON. COULD ONCE AGAIN WITNESS A NE TO SW MOVEMENT OF LATE DAY STORMS. FOR NOW WILL ONLY PLACE VCTS LATE DAY IN THE KAPF TAF. MORE VCTS MAY BE ADDED TO ADDITIONAL SITES LATER TODAY DEPENDING ON STORM EVOLUTION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014/ UPDATE... REMNANTS OF THIS EVENINGS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS MOVED TO THE WEST AND WILL BE EXITING THE NAPLES AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THE HRRR HAS BEEN FAIRLY CLOSE, BUT FAILED TO CAPTURE THE WESTERN CONVECTIVE AREA IN THE 20Z RUN. BUT IT DOES SHOW THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF AND HAS THEM ALL BUT GONE BY 2Z. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT WEATHER AND TO ALLOW FOR MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WITH THE REMAINING CELLS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014/ SYNOPSIS... SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE IN SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARD THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE INTERIOR. SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... SLIGHTLY WEAKER H7 INHIBITION HAS ALLOWED FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EARLY THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE HAS MOVED WEST OF METROPOLITAN AREAS...SO WITH MEAN STORM MOTION SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...MOST LIKELY EASTERN URBAN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. OVER THE INTERIOR...MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL AIDE IN COOLING OF DOWNDRAFTS AND SUPPORT QUITE GUSTY WINDS IN ANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS RESIDED OVER THE REGION THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IT DOES...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN DOWN THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. THIS MAY PROVIDE FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING /SEA BREEZE INDUCED/ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE FOCUS WILL REMAIN OVER INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA. AVIATION... EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WELL ESTABLISHED AS OF 18Z AND MAKING STEADY PROGRESS INLAND. WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IS STILL PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST BUT SHOULD ALSO MAKE SOME INLAND PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CONVERGENCE OF SEA BREEZES AND BACKGROUND N-NE FLOW WILL MAXIMIZE TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE INTERIOR TO WESTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. THUS WILL CARRY VCTS AT KAPF WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TERMINAL BEING DIRECTLY AFFECTED AFTER 20Z. EAST COAST TERMINALS LOOK TO BE CLEAR OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION TODAY, THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED VCTS FROM THESE LOCATIONS. ONLY IMPACT OF CONVECTION ON EAST COAST SITES IS MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS PERHAPS PRODUCING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT LAND BREEZE OVERNIGHT WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS AGAIN ON THURSDAY. /MOLLEDA MARINE... LIGHT WINDS WITH FAIRLY CALM SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 90 75 90 75 / 40 20 40 20 FORT LAUDERDALE 91 78 90 78 / 30 10 30 20 MIAMI 91 78 90 78 / 30 10 30 20 NAPLES 91 76 90 76 / 40 20 40 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...10/CD LONG TERM....10/CD AVIATION...21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
232 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .DISCUSSION... 246 AM CDT WE BEGIN TODAY AS WE STARTED THE PAST EIGHT WITH FOG ONCE AGAIN IN THE CHICAGO METRO. THAT FOG AND EVEN MORE SO STRATUS THIS MORNING AND INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES ARE INITIAL CHALLENGES TO THE FORECAST. THAT IS FOLLOWED BY OF COURSE OUR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. STORM CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE AT SOME POINT EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WEIGHING THAT WITH TEMPERATURES WAS A FOCUS OF THIS MORNING AS WELL. TODAY AND TONIGHT... THE GOES 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL THIS MORNING REVEALS WIDESPREAD STRATUS WHICH HAD SPREAD FROM THE LAKE WELL INLAND LATE LAST EVENING. THIS WAS ALSO DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE BUT HAD LIFTED TO MORE OF A STRATUS DECK INLAND. ANY VISIBILITY UNDER ONE MILE IS SOMEWHAT PATCHY OUTSIDE OF ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE AS OF 230 AM. BECAUSE OF THAT DO NOT SEE THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY THIS MORNING BUT MAY HIGHLIGHT WITH AN SPS DEPENDING ON VISIBILITY TRENDS. LATEST AMDAR DATA INDICATES THE STRATUS IS 1000-1500 FT THICK AND NOT WITHIN THAT STEEP OF AN INVERSION. SO ENVISION MUCH OF THIS OUTSIDE OF FAR NORTHEAST IL BURNING OFF QUICKLY AND HAVING LIMITED HAMPERING OF TEMPERATURES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A 1019MB SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED DOWN LAKE MI. THIS HAS LED TO DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LIKELY HELPED THE FOG FROM BEING AS DENSE THIS MORNING. YESTERDAY SAW A 20F+ TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM DOWNTOWN CHICAGO TO FAR OUTLYING AREAS. THIS SHOULD BE FAR LESS TODAY GIVEN LESS FOG DOWNTOWN AND LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT DRIVING NORTHEAST WIND SPEEDS. A SHORT WAVE IN SOUTHWEST IA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL RIDE EAST INTO NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOMEWHAT DAMPEN AT THE SAME TIME. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 LOOK TO BE REACHED IN NORTH CENTRAL IL AWAY FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCE. LESS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A WEAKER WAVE ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY SHOULD PROVIDE LESS COVERAGE AS WELL AS LESS GUSTO TO ANY STORMS. THIS IS SUPPORTED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FORECAST ONLY AT 15-20 KT. WE CONTINUE THE 20-40 POPS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF ILLINOIS HIGHWAY 47. SOME LINGERING WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD FESTER HERE AND THERE TONIGHT AS HAS BEEN SEEN IN THIS PATTERN. ANY FOG TONIGHT ALONG THE SHORE AREAS SHOULD BE EVEN LESS DENSE OR MAYBE NON-EXISTENT ALTOGETHER GIVEN LESS OF A NORTHERLY FETCH DOWN THE SOURCE REGION OF THE LAKE AND OVERALL SYNOPTIC DRYING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... A STRONG WESTERLY JET SEEN THIS MORNING OVER THE PACIFIC WILL INVADE THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL DEEPEN AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH MODEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. IN RESPONSE. THE FORCING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THIS TIME OVER THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS NEBULOUS AND TIED TO SUBTLE MID-LEVEL FEATURES AND BROAD WARM WARM/MOIST ASCENT. WITHIN THE OVERALL BUILDING HEIGHTS A WEAK DISORGANIZED UPPER LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WE MAY BE GRAZED BY ITS WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT. OVERALL THIS PERIOD HAS LOOKED LESS FAVORABLE OVER TIME FOR PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNAL IS WEAKER. FORECAST HIGHS ARE MID 80S ON BOTH DAYS ALTHOUGH LAKE COOLING FOR COOK AND LAKE COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND THE END OF THE 26.00 NAM AND 26.03 SREF RUNS ARE COMING INTO SOME AGREEMENT WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE AND MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE ADVECTION ON SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIPITATION COULD END UP BEING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BUT HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THESE PERIODS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COULD BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THIS AS GFS/EC 850MB TEMPS OF 18C-21C ARE SUPPORTIVE OF 90+ AREAWIDE. HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVELY AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DID AND KEPT HIGHS MORE MID 80S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR REACHING THAT 90 MARK AND LIKELY TO A BE A HUMID DAY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS A FETCH OF LOWER-MID 70S DEW POINTS SHOULD EXTEND UP THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE MODESTLY UNSTABLE UNDER LOWERING HEIGHTS AS THE CANADIAN TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. MONDAY NIGHT IS THE CURRENT PERIOD FOR FROPA ON A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT PERIOD...BUT NOTHING OVERBOARD AS THE TIMING WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE FURTHER REFINED. WITH THE MOISTURE AND JUST SYNOPTIC SETUP...THERE LOOKS AS IF THERE COULD BE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD INCLUDE OUR AREA. MTF && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z... * NE WINDS PICK UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON * LIFR CIGS/IFR VSBY POSSIBLE TONIGHT IZZI //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE NE WINDS EXPECTED TO PUSH SPEEDS TO AROUND 10KT FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE EASING THIS EVENING. BANK OF STRATUS AND FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER LAND BUT WILL PROBABLY LINGER OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO RE-SURGE INLAND BY EARLY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD VEER TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN STRATUS/FOG FAVORING AREAS NORTH MORE AND LIKELY DISSIPATING EARLIER ON FRIDAY IF IT DEVELOPS. AT THIS POINT WOULD THINK THE PROBABILITY OF LIFR CIGS MOVING INTO ORD IS AROUND 40-50 PERCENT AND DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE TO FORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FAVOR LAKE COUNTY IL SOUTH INTO NORTHERN COOK COUNTY WITH ORD MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE A WIND SHIFT TO EASTERLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IZZI //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z... * MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON * LOW CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBY TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING WINDS STAYING MOSTLY BELOW 10KT THIS AFTERNOON * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IZZI //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z... FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND MVFR OR LOWER CIGS. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. WX NIL. KREIN && .MARINE... 230 PM CDT HIGH PRESSURE IS SPRAWLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA. SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH FLOW WILL INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TOPPING OUT IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING UP FRESH 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS OVER THE STILL COOL WATERS OF THE LAKE AND COULD PROLONG THE FOG THREAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SPREAD THE AREAS OF FOG BACK TO THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD BY MIDWEEK. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675- LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872- LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 PM FRIDAY. DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1259 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014 Weak frontal boundary remains draped along the I-74 corridor this morning. Widespread fog that developed along/north of the boundary overnight has lifted into a low overcast across the far northern KILX CWA. This cloud cover will rapidly dissipate over the next 1 to 2 hours. After that, scattered diurnal clouds will develop toward midday through the afternoon hours, yielding a partly to mostly sunny sky. May see a few thunderstorms around the area as well, although areal coverage will remain quite low due to lack of upper support. High-res models such as the HRRR and RAP focus on the W/SW CWA this afternoon. Have therefore adjusted POPs to carry scattered thunderstorms across the western zones and only isolated across the east. Barnes && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1259 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014 Widely scattered convection currently developing along an old frontal boundary near the Mississippi River will gradually spread northeastward into central Illinois this afternoon. With little to no upper support, think areal coverage will remain low. As a result, will only mention VCTS at the TAF sites. Any storms that occur will dissipate early this evening, followed by mostly clear skies overnight. Winds will be light/variable this afternoon and tonight, then will become S/SE at around 10kt Friday morning. Barnes && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 306 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014 Hot, humid summertime with a weak boundary and several small waves to help trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms periodically through the forecast. Bringing in finesse to the forecast with the shaky performance of the operational models is difficult at best. GFS is already off with widespread convection over the FA, and the NAM is doing somewhat better with a delay on the approaching wave until later today. Increasing pops today going into the afternoon, particularly along the boundary as it drifts very slowly with the warming of the day, providing a weak focus for some storms. Forecast very much a blend of different models and different runs, with deference to a chaotic solution set in an unstable summer airmass. Results...a lot of small pops. Best chances for precip actually land with the next larger system that will have more of an affect this weekend and the first half of next week. Same wave just coming onshore this morning on the west coast and expect a little bit more confidence to build as the system becomes better sampled in the next couple runs. SHORT TERM...Today and tonight... Dense fog creeping into the NE portions of the CWA from NRN IL as temps drop under the mostly clear skies in an area of rich llvl moisture from yesterdays rain. Increasing chances for rain as the next wave/and remains of overnight weakening MCS from the Plains makes its way eastward into the Midwest. ECMWF more dominated by subsidence and drier. Keeping the pops low and more coverage wording today and tonight as a result. Precip lingering a bit into the overnight in models and with continued southerly flow and that stagnant boundary...keeping the pops for the overnight. Temperatures similar with the recent trends. LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday... Right now, chance PoPs remain in the forecast Friday through the weekend, though there is doubt for Friday/Friday night and depending on the timing and amplification of the synoptic pattern and strength of some weak ridging at the sfc. Sunday, models are hinting at the next major storm system spinning up as that trof amplifies over the western half of the CONUS and goes to a slightly negative tilt over the nrn Plains/Upper Midwest for the end of the weekend. Models continuing to deepen the sfc low well to the north in srn Canada. At this point, the bulk of that system looks to be north of ILX, though cold frontal features pass through ILX spawning storms along the way. Will probably see continued stormy impacts for Monday/Monday night, though the timing is changing by 12 hrs back and forth with subsequent synoptic runs...particularly across the northern half of the state. HJS && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1103 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .DISCUSSION... 246 AM CDT WE BEGIN TODAY AS WE STARTED THE PAST EIGHT WITH FOG ONCE AGAIN IN THE CHICAGO METRO. THAT FOG AND EVEN MORE SO STRATUS THIS MORNING AND INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES ARE INITIAL CHALLENGES TO THE FORECAST. THAT IS FOLLOWED BY OF COURSE OUR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. STORM CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE AT SOME POINT EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WEIGHING THAT WITH TEMPERATURES WAS A FOCUS OF THIS MORNING AS WELL. TODAY AND TONIGHT... THE GOES 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL THIS MORNING REVEALS WIDESPREAD STRATUS WHICH HAD SPREAD FROM THE LAKE WELL INLAND LATE LAST EVENING. THIS WAS ALSO DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE BUT HAD LIFTED TO MORE OF A STRATUS DECK INLAND. ANY VISIBILITY UNDER ONE MILE IS SOMEWHAT PATCHY OUTSIDE OF ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE AS OF 230 AM. BECAUSE OF THAT DO NOT SEE THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY THIS MORNING BUT MAY HIGHLIGHT WITH AN SPS DEPENDING ON VISIBILITY TRENDS. LATEST AMDAR DATA INDICATES THE STRATUS IS 1000-1500 FT THICK AND NOT WITHIN THAT STEEP OF AN INVERSION. SO ENVISION MUCH OF THIS OUTSIDE OF FAR NORTHEAST IL BURNING OFF QUICKLY AND HAVING LIMITED HAMPERING OF TEMPERATURES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A 1019MB SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED DOWN LAKE MI. THIS HAS LED TO DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LIKELY HELPED THE FOG FROM BEING AS DENSE THIS MORNING. YESTERDAY SAW A 20F+ TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM DOWNTOWN CHICAGO TO FAR OUTLYING AREAS. THIS SHOULD BE FAR LESS TODAY GIVEN LESS FOG DOWNTOWN AND LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT DRIVING NORTHEAST WIND SPEEDS. A SHORT WAVE IN SOUTHWEST IA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL RIDE EAST INTO NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOMEWHAT DAMPEN AT THE SAME TIME. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 LOOK TO BE REACHED IN NORTH CENTRAL IL AWAY FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCE. LESS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A WEAKER WAVE ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY SHOULD PROVIDE LESS COVERAGE AS WELL AS LESS GUSTO TO ANY STORMS. THIS IS SUPPORTED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FORECAST ONLY AT 15-20 KT. WE CONTINUE THE 20-40 POPS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF ILLINOIS HIGHWAY 47. SOME LINGERING WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD FESTER HERE AND THERE TONIGHT AS HAS BEEN SEEN IN THIS PATTERN. ANY FOG TONIGHT ALONG THE SHORE AREAS SHOULD BE EVEN LESS DENSE OR MAYBE NON-EXISTENT ALTOGETHER GIVEN LESS OF A NORTHERLY FETCH DOWN THE SOURCE REGION OF THE LAKE AND OVERALL SYNOPTIC DRYING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... A STRONG WESTERLY JET SEEN THIS MORNING OVER THE PACIFIC WILL INVADE THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL DEEPEN AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH MODEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. IN RESPONSE. THE FORCING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THIS TIME OVER THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS NEBULOUS AND TIED TO SUBTLE MID-LEVEL FEATURES AND BROAD WARM WARM/MOIST ASCENT. WITHIN THE OVERALL BUILDING HEIGHTS A WEAK DISORGANIZED UPPER LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WE MAY BE GRAZED BY ITS WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT. OVERALL THIS PERIOD HAS LOOKED LESS FAVORABLE OVER TIME FOR PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNAL IS WEAKER. FORECAST HIGHS ARE MID 80S ON BOTH DAYS ALTHOUGH LAKE COOLING FOR COOK AND LAKE COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND THE END OF THE 26.00 NAM AND 26.03 SREF RUNS ARE COMING INTO SOME AGREEMENT WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE AND MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE ADVECTION ON SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIPITATION COULD END UP BEING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BUT HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THESE PERIODS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COULD BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THIS AS GFS/EC 850MB TEMPS OF 18C-21C ARE SUPPORTIVE OF 90+ AREAWIDE. HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVELY AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DID AND KEPT HIGHS MORE MID 80S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR REACHING THAT 90 MARK AND LIKELY TO A BE A HUMID DAY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS A FETCH OF LOWER-MID 70S DEW POINTS SHOULD EXTEND UP THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE MODESTLY UNSTABLE UNDER LOWERING HEIGHTS AS THE CANADIAN TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. MONDAY NIGHT IS THE CURRENT PERIOD FOR FROPA ON A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT PERIOD...BUT NOTHING OVERBOARD AS THE TIMING WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE FURTHER REFINED. WITH THE MOISTURE AND JUST SYNOPTIC SETUP...THERE LOOKS AS IF THERE COULD BE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD INCLUDE OUR AREA. MTF && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z... * NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON * LIFR CIGS/IFR VSBY POTENTIALLY REDEVELOPING TONIGHT IZZI //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND THEN RESUME A WEAK NELY FLOW BY MID MORNING. A LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE WIND FIELD WILL SET UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...NOT REALLY A CLASSIC LAKE BREEZE...BUT WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE ELY AND INCREASE A BIT...BUT GENERALLY SHOULD REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 10KT. WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN TO LGT/VRBL THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW CIGS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN FLIGHT CATEGORY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE UNSEASONABLY COOL FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IT WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER THAN NORMAL INTO THE MORNING FOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AND EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS TO 15Z OR SO. EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THAT THE TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY AS LAKE- STABILIZED AIR WILL COVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS SNEAKING INTO THE RFD AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO THE AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MORE MODIFIED AND LESS LAKE STABILIZED FARTHER AWAY FORM LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST FOR RFD FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE BUT WILL CONSIDER AT LEAST A VCSH OR VCTS WITH THE NEXT UPDATES. KREIN //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z... * MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS TRENDS TODAY * LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS TONIGHT * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS IZZI //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z... FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND MVFR OR LOWER CIGS. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. WX NIL. KREIN && .MARINE... 300 AM CDT BROAD LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO FLORIDA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM QUEBEC THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS HAS SET UP GENENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER LAND AND A GENERALLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SETTING UP ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON LAND. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE AND WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SETTING UP MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LAKE...WHICH COULD REACH 15 TO 25 KT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WILL TAKE AN ODD TURN TO THE NORTH...INTO SASKATCHEWAN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AS THE LOW THEN TAKES A TURN TO THE EAST...TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT. && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675- LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872- LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 PM FRIDAY. DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1045 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014 Weak frontal boundary remains draped along the I-74 corridor this morning. Widespread fog that developed along/north of the boundary overnight has lifted into a low overcast across the far northern KILX CWA. This cloud cover will rapidly dissipate over the next 1 to 2 hours. After that, scattered diurnal clouds will develop toward midday through the afternoon hours, yielding a partly to mostly sunny sky. May see a few thunderstorms around the area as well, although areal coverage will remain quite low due to lack of upper support. High-res models such as the HRRR and RAP focus on the W/SW CWA this afternoon. Have therefore adjusted POPs to carry scattered thunderstorms across the western zones and only isolated across the east. Barnes && .AVIATION... ISSUED 702 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014 Dense fog affecting areas in the vicinity of KDNV-KBMI-KPIA-KPNT producing visibilities less than 1/4 mile while local IFR/MVFR visibilities surround this region. Fog expected to dissipate by around 14Z with daytime heating. With continued afternoon heating...isolated-scattered thunderstorms expected after 21Z. Local IFR visibilities and gusty winds expected. Overnight...decreasing thunderstorm activity is expected...and mention of thunderstorms in area TAFs is not included as probabilities are too low. Onton && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 306 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014 Hot, humid summertime with a weak boundary and several small waves to help trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms periodically through the forecast. Bringing in finesse to the forecast with the shaky performance of the operational models is difficult at best. GFS is already off with widespread convection over the FA, and the NAM is doing somewhat better with a delay on the approaching wave until later today. Increasing pops today going into the afternoon, particularly along the boundary as it drifts very slowly with the warming of the day, providing a weak focus for some storms. Forecast very much a blend of different models and different runs, with deference to a chaotic solution set in an unstable summer airmass. Results...a lot of small pops. Best chances for precip actually land with the next larger system that will have more of an affect this weekend and the first half of next week. Same wave just coming onshore this morning on the west coast and expect a little bit more confidence to build as the system becomes better sampled in the next couple runs. SHORT TERM...Today and tonight... Dense fog creeping into the NE portions of the CWA from NRN IL as temps drop under the mostly clear skies in an area of rich llvl moisture from yesterdays rain. Increasing chances for rain as the next wave/and remains of overnight weakening MCS from the Plains makes its way eastward into the Midwest. ECMWF more dominated by subsidence and drier. Keeping the pops low and more coverage wording today and tonight as a result. Precip lingering a bit into the overnight in models and with continued southerly flow and that stagnant boundary...keeping the pops for the overnight. Temperatures similar with the recent trends. LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday... Right now, chance PoPs remain in the forecast Friday through the weekend, though there is doubt for Friday/Friday night and depending on the timing and amplification of the synoptic pattern and strength of some weak ridging at the sfc. Sunday, models are hinting at the next major storm system spinning up as that trof amplifies over the western half of the CONUS and goes to a slightly negative tilt over the nrn Plains/Upper Midwest for the end of the weekend. Models continuing to deepen the sfc low well to the north in srn Canada. At this point, the bulk of that system looks to be north of ILX, though cold frontal features pass through ILX spawning storms along the way. Will probably see continued stormy impacts for Monday/Monday night, though the timing is changing by 12 hrs back and forth with subsequent synoptic runs...particularly across the northern half of the state. HJS && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
401 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .DISCUSSION... 246 AM CDT WE BEGIN TODAY AS WE STARTED THE PAST EIGHT WITH FOG ONCE AGAIN IN THE CHICAGO METRO. THAT FOG AND EVEN MORE SO STRATUS THIS MORNING AND INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES ARE INITIAL CHALLENGES TO THE FORECAST. THAT IS FOLLOWED BY OF COURSE OUR DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. STORM CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE AT SOME POINT EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WEIGHING THAT WITH TEMPERATURES WAS A FOCUS OF THIS MORNING AS WELL. TODAY AND TONIGHT... THE GOES 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL THIS MORNING REVEALS WIDESPREAD STRATUS WHICH HAD SPREAD FROM THE LAKE WELL INLAND LATE LAST EVENING. THIS WAS ALSO DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE BUT HAD LIFTED TO MORE OF A STRATUS DECK INLAND. ANY VISIBILITY UNDER ONE MILE IS SOMEWHAT PATCHY OUTSIDE OF ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE AS OF 230 AM. BECAUSE OF THAT DO NOT SEE THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY THIS MORNING BUT MAY HIGHLIGHT WITH AN SPS DEPENDING ON VISIBILITY TRENDS. LATEST AMDAR DATA INDICATES THE STRATUS IS 1000-1500 FT THICK AND NOT WITHIN THAT STEEP OF AN INVERSION. SO ENVISION MUCH OF THIS OUTSIDE OF FAR NORTHEAST IL BURNING OFF QUICKLY AND HAVING LIMITED HAMPERING OF TEMPERATURES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A 1019MB SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED DOWN LAKE MI. THIS HAS LED TO DRY AIR ADVECTION AND LIKELY HELPED THE FOG FROM BEING AS DENSE THIS MORNING. YESTERDAY SAW A 20F+ TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM DOWNTOWN CHICAGO TO FAR OUTLYING AREAS. THIS SHOULD BE FAR LESS TODAY GIVEN LESS FOG DOWNTOWN AND LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT DRIVING NORTHEAST WIND SPEEDS. A SHORT WAVE IN SOUTHWEST IA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL RIDE EAST INTO NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOMEWHAT DAMPEN AT THE SAME TIME. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 LOOK TO BE REACHED IN NORTH CENTRAL IL AWAY FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCE. LESS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND A WEAKER WAVE ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY SHOULD PROVIDE LESS COVERAGE AS WELL AS LESS GUSTO TO ANY STORMS. THIS IS SUPPORTED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FORECAST ONLY AT 15-20 KT. WE CONTINUE THE 20-40 POPS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF ILLINOIS HIGHWAY 47. SOME LINGERING WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD FESTER HERE AND THERE TONIGHT AS HAS BEEN SEEN IN THIS PATTERN. ANY FOG TONIGHT ALONG THE SHORE AREAS SHOULD BE EVEN LESS DENSE OR MAYBE NON-EXISTENT ALTOGETHER GIVEN LESS OF A NORTHERLY FETCH DOWN THE SOURCE REGION OF THE LAKE AND OVERALL SYNOPTIC DRYING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... A STRONG WESTERLY JET SEEN THIS MORNING OVER THE PACIFIC WILL INVADE THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL DEEPEN AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH MODEST AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. IN RESPONSE. THE FORCING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THIS TIME OVER THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS NEBULOUS AND TIED TO SUBTLE MID-LEVEL FEATURES AND BROAD WARM WARM/MOIST ASCENT. WITHIN THE OVERALL BUILDING HEIGHTS A WEAK DISORGANIZED UPPER LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WE MAY BE GRAZED BY ITS WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT. OVERALL THIS PERIOD HAS LOOKED LESS FAVORABLE OVER TIME FOR PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNAL IS WEAKER. FORECAST HIGHS ARE MID 80S ON BOTH DAYS ALTHOUGH LAKE COOLING FOR COOK AND LAKE COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND THE END OF THE 26.00 NAM AND 26.03 SREF RUNS ARE COMING INTO SOME AGREEMENT WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE AND MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE ADVECTION ON SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIPITATION COULD END UP BEING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BUT HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THESE PERIODS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY COULD BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THIS AS GFS/EC 850MB TEMPS OF 18C-21C ARE SUPPORTIVE OF 90+ AREAWIDE. HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVELY AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DID AND KEPT HIGHS MORE MID 80S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR REACHING THAT 90 MARK AND LIKELY TO A BE A HUMID DAY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS A FETCH OF LOWER-MID 70S DEW POINTS SHOULD EXTEND UP THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE MODESTLY UNSTABLE UNDER LOWERING HEIGHTS AS THE CANADIAN TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. MONDAY NIGHT IS THE CURRENT PERIOD FOR FROPA ON A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT PERIOD...BUT NOTHING OVERBOARD AS THE TIMING WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE FURTHER REFINED. WITH THE MOISTURE AND JUST SYNOPTIC SETUP...THERE LOOKS AS IF THERE COULD BE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD INCLUDE OUR AREA. MTF && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z... * IFR TO LIFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF LOW VSBY IN FOG ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. * NELY-ELY WINDS LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. KREIN //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND THEN RESUME A WEAK NELY FLOW BY MID MORNING. A LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE WIND FIELD WILL SET UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...NOT REALLY A CLASSIC LAKE BREEZE...BUT WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE ELY AND INCREASE A BIT...BUT GENERALLY SHOULD REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 10KT. WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN TO LGT/VRBL THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW CIGS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH CIGS ALREADY DROPPING TO IFR AND ANTICIPATE THAT ALL TAF SITES WILL DROP TO 002-003 DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS VIS WILL DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR...EXCEPT GYY WITH IS ALREADY AT 2SM. NOT THAT CONFIDENT IN WIDESPREAD IFR VIS TONIGHT...BUT WILL GO WITH A TEMPO 2SM DURG THE PRE-DAWN HOURS IN DEFERENCE TO THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14-15Z AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THAT THE TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY AS LAKE- STABILIZED AIR WILL COVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS SNEAKING INTO THE RFD AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO THE AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MORE MODIFIED AND LESS LAKE STABILIZED FARTHER AWAY FORM LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST FOR RFD FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE BUT WILL CONSIDER AT LEAST A VCSH OR VCTS WITH THE NEXT UPDATES. KREIN //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z... * MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS TRENDS. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS. KREIN //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z... FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND MVFR OR LOWER CIGS. JEE && .MARINE... 300 AM CDT BROAD LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO FLORIDA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM QUEBEC THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS HAS SET UP GENENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER LAND AND A GENERALLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SETTING UP ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON LAND. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE AND WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SETTING UP MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LAKE...WHICH COULD REACH 15 TO 25 KT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WILL TAKE AN ODD TURN TO THE NORTH...INTO SASKATCHEWAN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AS THE LOW THEN TAKES A TURN TO THE EAST...TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT. && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675- LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 346 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 306 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014 Hot, humid summertime with a weak boundary and several small waves to help trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms periodically through the forecast. Bringing in finesse to the forecast with the shaky performance of the operational models is difficult at best. GFS is already off with widespread convection over the FA, and the NAM is doing somewhat better with a delay on the approaching wave until later today. Increasing pops today going into the afternoon, particularly along the boundary as it drifts very slowly with the warming of the day, providing a weak focus for some storms. Forecast very much a blend of different models and different runs, with deference to a chaotic solution set in an unstable summer airmass. Results...a lot of small pops. Best chances for precip actually land with the next larger system that will have more of an affect this weekend and the first half of next week. Same wave just coming onshore this morning on the west coast and expect a little bit more confidence to build as the system becomes better sampled in the next couple runs. SHORT TERM...Today and tonight... Dense fog creeping into the NE portions of the CWA from NRN IL as temps drop under the mostly clear skies in an area of rich llvl moisture from yesterdays rain. Increasing chances for rain as the next wave/and remains of overnight weakening MCS from the Plains makes its way eastward into the Midwest. ECMWF more dominated by subsidence and drier. Keeping the pops low and more coverage wording today and tonight as a result. Precip lingering a bit into the overnight in models and with continued southerly flow and that stagnant boundary...keeping the pops for the overnight. Temperatures similar with the recent trends. LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday... Right now, chance PoPs remain in the forecast Friday through the weekend, though there is doubt for Friday/Friday night and depending on the timing and amplification of the synoptic pattern and strength of some weak ridging at the sfc. Sunday, models are hinting at the next major storm system spinning up as that trof amplifies over the western half of the CONUS and goes to a slightly negative tilt over the nrn Plains/Upper Midwest for the end of the weekend. Models continuing to deepen the sfc low well to the north in srn Canada. At this point, the bulk of that system looks to be north of ILX, though cold frontal features pass through ILX spawning storms along the way. Will probably see continued stormy impacts for Monday/Monday night, though the timing is changing by 12 hrs back and forth with subsequent synoptic runs...particularly across the northern half of the state. HJS && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014 Low clouds (ceilings below 1k ft) and fog off Lake Michigan have spread sw to Pontiac and Watseka and latest HRRR model now shows low clouds and fog reaching BMI and CMI after 08Z or 09Z. So lowered vsbys and ceilings at ne taf sites to account for this possibility. Jacksonville about 30 miles west of SPI already has 1.75 mile in fog with 700 foot ceiling so even SPI and DEC could see fog develop overnight. Have MVFR vsbys for now but possible for vsbys getting to 2 miles or less similar to what has occurred at Jacksonville. SPI and CMI currently have only 3F temp/td spread while DEC is 6F spread and PIA and BMI have 8F temp/td spread. Any fog that develops should lift by 14Z/9 am with scattered to broken cumulus clouds 3.5-5k ft. Weak short wave arriving from the west Thu along with increased moisture. So added VCTS late Thu afternoon after 21Z and into mid Thu evening starting soonest at PIA and later at DEC and CMI. Models have not been handling convection the best lately so confidence of timing and coverage of convection is low, hence kept VC working instead of tempo groups. Light ene to calm winds overnight with frontal boundary over central IL and then winds turn SE 4-7 kts after 14Z Thu and be light Thu eve. 07 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1251 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .DISCUSSION... 839 PM CDT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ONCE THE MID-LVL VORTICITY MAXIMA PUSHED EAST THE INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY DIMINISHED. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN ALSO STRUGGLED TO PUSH EAST AS THEY WERE ENCOUNTERING A COOLER MARINE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH HELPED TO KEEP ALL ACTIVITY GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A HARVARD TO LANSING LINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO COOL INTO THE LOW 60S TO UPR 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE...WHILE INLAND AREAS REMAIN MILD IN THE LOW/MID 70S. SOME MARINE FOG HAS BEEN ABLE TO BLEED INLAND THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WITH A BUMP IN THE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN THE FOG QUICKLY LIFTED BRIEFLY INTO A LOW STRATUS DECK. ALTHOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE ONLY TEMPORARY...AS ONCE WINDS DIMINISH BACK DOWN OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG TO DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP. BEACHLER //PREV DISCUSSION... 336 PM CDT MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WELL AS WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM ARE WITH THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AT THIS TIME...WITH SMALL HAIL AND WINDS TO 50 MPH THE THREATS AT THIS TIME. AS WAS ALSO ANTICIPATED...HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT WITH ONE OF THE STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING SLIGHTLY OVER AN INCH AS IT MOVED OVER THE OFFICE HERE IN ROMEOVILLE. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED ALONG BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT FROM ROCKFORD SOUTHEAST TO KANKAKEE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WHERE INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES. AS LARGE VORT MAX WELL TO THE NORTH CONTINUES EAST THIS AFTERNOON...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO EXIT. BEST LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE LOST WITH THE COVERAGE OF STORMS LIKELY DECREASING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DO CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS A SOURCE OF LOW HORIZONTAL LEVEL SHEAR. THIS LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD PROVIDE A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH ISOLATED FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE STORMS DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY EVENING...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOG ALONG THE SHORE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT THIS FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO SPILL BACK INLAND LATE THIS EVENING MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THIS TIME...BUT WITH THIS FOG/STRATUS LIKELY MOVING FURTHER INLAND AND AFFECTING A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL MAKE MENTION OF FOG IN THE GRIDS/ZONES AND HWO...AN MONITOR THIS INLAND PUSH THIS EVENING FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AGAIN TONIGHT. AFTER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENINGS DEVELOPMENT DIMINISHES...DONT EXPECT ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. DO EXPECT THURSDAY MORNING TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS WELL AS ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY WELL WEST OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY TO DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CWA. THIS POTENTIAL ENERGY COINCIDING WITH A LINGERING BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION COULD PROVIDE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BEST FOCUS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE CWA BUT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT TO DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CWA...DID MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. DO EXPECT THURSDAY NIGHT BE ON THE DRIER SIDE WHILE THE STRONGER FLOW/ENERGY REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR WAA PRECIP TO SWING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...DID LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE GRIDS. RISING HEIGHTS AND PERSISTENT WAA WILL BE THE TREND INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE ENERGY THE NORTHWEST SLOWLY APPROACHES. A VERY MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN...HAVE WARRANTED CHANCE POP MENTION INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED. RODRIGUEZ && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * IFR TO LIFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF LOW VSBY IN FOG ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. * NELY-ELY WINDS LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. KREIN //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND THEN RESUME A WEAK NELY FLOW BY MID MORNING. A LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE WIND FIELD WILL SET UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...NOT REALLY A CLASSIC LAKE BREEZE...BUT WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE ELY AND INCREASE A BIT...BUT GENERALLY SHOULD REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 10KT. WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN TO LGT/VRBL THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW CIGS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH CIGS ALREADY DROPPING TO IFR AND ANTICIPATE THAT ALL TAF SITES WILL DROP TO 002-003 DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS VIS WILL DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR...EXCEPT GYY WITH IS ALREADY AT 2SM. NOT THAT CONFIDENT IN WIDESPREAD IFR VIS TONIGHT...BUT WILL GO WITH A TEMPO 2SM DURG THE PRE-DAWN HOURS IN DEFERENCE TO THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14-15Z AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THAT THE TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY AS LAKE- STABILIZED AIR WILL COVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS SNEAKING INTO THE RFD AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO THE AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MORE MODIFIED AND LESS LAKE STABILIZED FARTHER AWAY FORM LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST FOR RFD FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE BUT WILL CONSIDER AT LEAST A VCSH OR VCTS WITH THE NEXT UPDATES. KREIN //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS TRENDS. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS. KREIN //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z... FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND MVFR OR LOWER CIGS. JEE && .MARINE... 239 PM CDT HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NOVA SCOTIA SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC CONSOLIDATES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. DRIER AIR IS STARTING TO FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WHICH SHOULD HELP REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF FOG ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE INTO THE EVENING. DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND LIKELY BECOME VARIABLE ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SPREADING DOWN THE LAKE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO FRIDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT GOING INTO FRIDAY AND FAVOR A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BUT THE FLOW MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT THEY BECOME ONSHORE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BUT THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL KEEP SHARP INVERSION IN PLACE SO SPEED INCREASE MAY BE LIMITED. THE LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTENSIFY SUNDAY KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LAKE AND TURN WINDS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE STABLE LAYER WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS BUT OFFSHORE FLOW ON THE WEST AND SOUTH SHORES WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONGER BREEZE STRETCHING A FEW MILES FROM SHORE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE TURNING WINDS WESTERLY. MDB && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675- LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779- LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1146 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 845 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014 Like last evening, will update the forecast around 10 pm with isolated showers and thunderstorms still occurring along and ne of I-74 through 10 pm. This diurnally driven convection closer to weak frontal boundary drifting slowy sw toward I-74 at mid evening should dissipate about 1-2 hours after sunset. Plus short wave over Great Lakes region is moving away from NE IL this evening. Added patchy fog late tonight and early Thu morning to northeast counties with light winds. Crossover temperatures should be within reach between 3-7 am especially over ne counties and HRRR shows fog developing ne of I-74 later tonight with the dense fog over ne IL and nw IN. Like last night though, cirrus clouds spreading ne across areas se of IL river may limit fog formation. Lows in the low to mid 60s looks on track, though nudged lows up a tad over sw counties where dewpoints are currently around 70F. 07 && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014 Low clouds (ceilings below 1k ft) and fog off Lake Michigan have spread sw to Pontiac and Watseka and latest HRRR model now shows low clouds and fog reaching BMI and CMI after 08Z or 09Z. So lowered vsbys and ceilings at ne taf sites to account for this possibility. Jacksonville about 30 miles west of SPI already has 1.75 mile in fog with 700 foot ceiling so even SPI and DEC could see fog develop overnight. Have MVFR vsbys for now but possible for vsbys getting to 2 miles or less similar to what has occurred at Jacksonville. SPI and CMI currently have only 3F temp/td spread while DEC is 6F spread and PIA and BMI have 8F temp/td spread. Any fog that develops should lift by 14Z/9 am with scattered to broken cumulus clouds 3.5-5k ft. Weak short wave arriving from the west Thu along with increased moisture. So added VCTS late Thu afternoon after 21Z and into mid Thu evening starting soonest at PIA and later at DEC and CMI. Models have not been handling convection the best lately so confidence of timing and coverage of convection is low, hence kept VC working instead of tempo groups. Light ene to calm winds overnight with frontal boundary over central IL and then winds turn SE 4-7 kts after 14Z Thu and be light Thu eve. 07 && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 300 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014 Main forecast problem today is the summertime convective pattern and daily pops. SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night. Morning upper air and surface data shows a weak upper system moving east today through the Great Lakes, with minor low center and surface convergence boundary from WI to northern IL. Result is scattered storms mainly over northern IL in the evening that will dissipate by in the evening. For Thursday into Friday, the moist, unstable airmass moves back north into region, with dew points increasing. The result is the chance of scattered storms over the region, but with no defined boundaries and light upper winds, pcpn will be scattered. LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday. Upper flow changes a little from the weak zonal with a minor ridge over MS valley to an minor upper level wave moving from the rockies into the upper plains. This pattern drives a series of cold fronts inot the Great Lakes, trailing south into the IL region. As a result, another chance of pops over the weekend and into the first of next week. However models are different on the strength of the front and upper forcing remains in the Great Lakes. With those factors, kept pops in chance category at this time, with further refinement possible later when the exact feature timing is better seen. GOETSCH && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1248 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 CONVECTION IS MAINTAINING ITSELF ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF KCID. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING THAT SHOULD SLOWLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH PEAK HEATING. THE LOW LAKE STRATUS IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING BUT HANGING ON FROM KDBQ DOWN TO NEAR KSQI. THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID AFTERNOON ALLOWING A QUICK JUMP IN TEMPERATURES. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1051 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS MAINTAINED THROUGH MID MORNING WITH NEW DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST 90 MINUTES. EXPERIMENTAL CLOUD TOP COOLING AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION PRODUCTS POINT TO CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN IOWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...CONVECTION OVER EASTERN IOWA WILL BE TIED TO THE BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY RUNS FROM JUST SOUTH OF KSUX TO KAAA. AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ACHIEVE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE 17Z-18Z TIME FRAME. THE LAKE INDUCED STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONCE SKIES CLEAR THERE SHOULD BE A QUICK JUMP IN TEMPERATURES OF 5-10 DEGREES IN ABOUT AN HOUR. UPDATE ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 UPDATED FCST FOR STRATUS AND FOG AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS. LEADING EDGE OF STRATUS NEAR DUBUQUE TO QUAD CITIES LINE AND MAY MOVE A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD OVER NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE PUTTING ON THE BRAKES AS SUN CONTINUES TO RISE. ADDED MENTION OF DENSE FOG WITH THE STRATUS BASED ON OBS. WILL NOT ADJUST HIGH TEMPS ATTIM BUT MAY HAVE TO LOWER A BIT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RVR NOW THAT THE STRATUS HAS MOVED IN. FRESHENED UP POPS WITH SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG HWY 20 CORRIDOR INTO NW IL... OTHERWISE DRY TO START REST OF CWA. BATCH OF CONVECTION IN CENTRAL IA SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD PORTIONS OF WESTERN CWA AND SHOULD MOVE IN AREAS WEST OF CEDAR RAPIDS TO WASHINGTON LINE A BIT LATER THIS AM...BARRING ANY DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO SOUTHWEST CWA AT 07Z AND EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM JUST NORTH OF A RAPID CITY SD TO DES MOINES IA... TO INDIANAPOLIS IN. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS AM SHOWS CONVECTION FOCUSED MOSTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE AXIS ARE ALIGNED. WEAK PERTURBATION MOVING EAST FROM NE AND ATTENDANT WARM...MOIST ADVECTION AIDING WING OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM PORTIONS OF SW-CNTRL-NE IA. LAKE ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW POST FRONTAL AIDING LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LEADING EDGE ROUGHLY ON A LINE FROM MINERAL POINT WI TO STERLING/ROCK FALLS IL... TO PRINCETON IL. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO NOT MOVE MUCH NEXT 24 HOURS AND REMAIN IN VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST CWA. WEAK PERTURBATION(S) AND ATTENDANT SUBTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION IN COMBINATION WITH FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TDY... ALBEIT STILL LARGELY UNORGANIZED AND GENERALLY SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH SOME SUGGESTION THAT BEST COVERAGE MAY BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. SOME DIMINISHING OF PCPN ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNSET BUT MAY SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ACTIVITY LATE EVE/OVRNGT WITH SECONDARY BRANCH OF LOW LEVEL JET AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MO RVR VLY. STRATUS LOOKS TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MAKING INROADS INTO EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS AM... BUT SUNRISE WILL BRING MOVEMENT TO HALT AND HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST FINAL RESTING SPOT FOR STRATUS WILL BE ROUGHLY NEAR LINE FROM KDBQ TO EAST OF KMLI. STRATUS SHOULD LIFT INTO EXTENSIVE CU FIELD AND WILL AID IN LIMITING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F NORTHEAST CWA. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY PTSUNNY OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 60S SW CWA WITH PTCLDY SKIES OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME INCREASE IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING AS MODELS BEGIN TO CONGEAL ON THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION. SPECIFICALLY...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM AREA ALL REMARKABLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWFA MONDAY. THUS SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE AND WILL STICK WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND WITH MORE CONFIDENCE THAN IN RECENT DAYS. FRIDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A WIDE OPEN GULF SUPPORT WARM...BREEZY...AND HUMID. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS SURFACE DEW POINTS APPROACH 70 DEGREES AND A WEAK WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GFS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...LOOKING OVERDONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS DO SHOW SOME REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE ...AND WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMING DO THINK THERE WILL BE SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH MORE UPPER SUPPORT AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY. BY SUNDAY WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A FEW ROUNDS OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS IA. TIMING OF THE FROPA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WOULD LEND ITSELF TO INCREASED RISK OF SEVERE WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND THIS BEARS WATCH. QUIETER FOR MID WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO SETTLE IN. DMD && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT RUNS FROM ROUGHLY KSUX TO KPIA. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP THROUGH 02Z/27 SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NORTH OF THE FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AS A SHRA/TSRA MOVES THROUGH A TAF SITE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z/27. AFT 06Z/27 MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH SUNRISE. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...08 SYNOPSIS...05 SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM...DMD AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1057 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1051 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS MAINTAINED THROUGH MID MORNING WITH NEW DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST 90 MINUTES. EXPERIMENTAL CLOUD TOP COOLING AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION PRODUCTS POINT TO CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN IOWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...CONVECTION OVER EASTERN IOWA WILL BE TIED TO THE BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY RUNS FROM JUST SOUTH OF KSUX TO KAAA. AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ACHIEVE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE 17Z-18Z TIME FRAME. THE LAKE INDUCED STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONCE SKIES CLEAR THERE SHOULD BE A QUICK JUMP IN TEMPERATURES OF 5-10 DEGREES IN ABOUT AN HOUR. UPDATE ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 UPDATED FCST FOR STRATUS AND FOG AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS. LEADING EDGE OF STRATUS NEAR DUBUQUE TO QUAD CITIES LINE AND MAY MOVE A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD OVER NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE PUTTING ON THE BRAKES AS SUN CONTINUES TO RISE. ADDED MENTION OF DENSE FOG WITH THE STRATUS BASED ON OBS. WILL NOT ADJUST HIGH TEMPS ATTIM BUT MAY HAVE TO LOWER A BIT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RVR NOW THAT THE STRATUS HAS MOVED IN. FRESHENED UP POPS WITH SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG HWY 20 CORRIDOR INTO NW IL... OTHERWISE DRY TO START REST OF CWA. BATCH OF CONVECTION IN CENTRAL IA SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD PORTIONS OF WESTERN CWA AND SHOULD MOVE IN AREAS WEST OF CEDAR RAPIDS TO WASHINGTON LINE A BIT LATER THIS AM...BARRING ANY DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO SOUTHWEST CWA AT 07Z AND EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM JUST NORTH OF A RAPID CITY SD TO DES MOINES IA... TO INDIANAPOLIS IN. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS AM SHOWS CONVECTION FOCUSED MOSTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE AXIS ARE ALIGNED. WEAK PERTURBATION MOVING EAST FROM NE AND ATTENDANT WARM...MOIST ADVECTION AIDING WING OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM PORTIONS OF SW-CNTRL-NE IA. LAKE ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW POST FRONTAL AIDING LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LEADING EDGE ROUGHLY ON A LINE FROM MINERAL POINT WI TO STERLING/ROCK FALLS IL... TO PRINCETON IL. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO NOT MOVE MUCH NEXT 24 HOURS AND REMAIN IN VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST CWA. WEAK PERTURBATION(S) AND ATTENDANT SUBTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION IN COMBINATION WITH FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TDY... ALBEIT STILL LARGELY UNORGANIZED AND GENERALLY SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH SOME SUGGESTION THAT BEST COVERAGE MAY BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. SOME DIMINISHING OF PCPN ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNSET BUT MAY SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ACTIVITY LATE EVE/OVRNGT WITH SECONDARY BRANCH OF LOW LEVEL JET AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MO RVR VLY. STRATUS LOOKS TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MAKING INROADS INTO EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS AM... BUT SUNRISE WILL BRING MOVEMENT TO HALT AND HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST FINAL RESTING SPOT FOR STRATUS WILL BE ROUGHLY NEAR LINE FROM KDBQ TO EAST OF KMLI. STRATUS SHOULD LIFT INTO EXTENSIVE CU FIELD AND WILL AID IN LIMITING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F NORTHEAST CWA. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY PTSUNNY OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 60S SW CWA WITH PTCLDY SKIES OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME INCREASE IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING AS MODELS BEGIN TO CONGEAL ON THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION. SPECIFICALLY...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM AREA ALL REMARKABLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWFA MONDAY. THUS SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE AND WILL STICK WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND WITH MORE CONFIDENCE THAN IN RECENT DAYS. FRIDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A WIDE OPEN GULF SUPPORT WARM...BREEZY...AND HUMID. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS SURFACE DEW POINTS APPROACH 70 DEGREES AND A WEAK WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GFS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...LOOKING OVERDONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS DO SHOW SOME REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE ...AND WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMING DO THINK THERE WILL BE SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH MORE UPPER SUPPORT AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY. BY SUNDAY WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A FEW ROUNDS OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS IA. TIMING OF THE FROPA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WOULD LEND ITSELF TO INCREASED RISK OF SEVERE WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND THIS BEARS WATCH. QUIETER FOR MID WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO SETTLE IN. DMD && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT KDBQ AND KMLI WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AM THROUGH MIDDAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVING EAST FROM CENTRAL IA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. HAVE COVERED WITH VCTS WORDING AT MOST SITES FROM LATE AM THROUGH AFTN AND WILL AMEND IF IT LOOKS LIKE A TAF SITE WILL BE IMPACTED. CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY IFR TO MVFR IN THE STORMS. DECREASE IN PCPN EXPECTED WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING... BEFORE MORE ISOLD TO SCTD REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL JET. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR MENTION THOUGH ATTIM. WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME FOG WITH VSBYS 2-5SM ESPECIALLY AT ANY SITE THAT SEES RAIN DURING THE DAY TDY... THUS SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR LATER FCSTS. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...08 SYNOPSIS...05 SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM...DMD AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
705 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 UPDATED FCST FOR STRATUS AND FOG AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS. LEADING EDGE OF STRATUS NEAR DUBUQUE TO QUAD CITIES LINE AND MAY MOVE A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD OVER NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE PUTTING ON THE BRAKES AS SUN CONTINUES TO RISE. ADDED MENTION OF DENSE FOG WITH THE STRATUS BASED ON OBS. WILL NOT ADJUST HIGH TEMPS ATTIM BUT MAY HAVE TO LOWER A BIT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RVR NOW THAT THE STRATUS HAS MOVED IN. FRESHENED UP POPS WITH SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG HWY 20 CORRIDOR INTO NW IL... OTHERWISE DRY TO START REST OF CWA. BATCH OF CONVECTION IN CENTRAL IA SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD PORTIONS OF WESTERN CWA AND SHOULD MOVE IN AREAS WEST OF CEDAR RAPIDS TO WASHINGTON LINE A BIT LATER THIS AM...BARRING ANY DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO SOUTHWEST CWA AT 07Z AND EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM JUST NORTH OF A RAPID CITY SD TO DES MOINES IA... TO INDIANAPOLIS IN. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS AM SHOWS CONVECTION FOCUSED MOSTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE AXIS ARE ALIGNED. WEAK PERTURBATION MOVING EAST FROM NE AND ATTENDANT WARM...MOIST ADVECTION AIDING WING OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM PORTIONS OF SW-CNTRL-NE IA. LAKE ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW POST FRONTAL AIDING LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LEADING EDGE ROUGHLY ON A LINE FROM MINERAL POINT WI TO STERLING/ROCK FALLS IL... TO PRINCETON IL. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO NOT MOVE MUCH NEXT 24 HOURS AND REMAIN IN VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST CWA. WEAK PERTURBATION(S) AND ATTENDANT SUBTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION IN COMBINATION WITH FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TDY... ALBEIT STILL LARGELY UNORGANIZED AND GENERALLY SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH SOME SUGGESTION THAT BEST COVERAGE MAY BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. SOME DIMINISHING OF PCPN ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNSET BUT MAY SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ACTIVITY LATE EVE/OVRNGT WITH SECONDARY BRANCH OF LOW LEVEL JET AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MO RVR VLY. STRATUS LOOKS TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MAKING INROADS INTO EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS AM... BUT SUNRISE WILL BRING MOVEMENT TO HALT AND HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST FINAL RESTING SPOT FOR STRATUS WILL BE ROUGHLY NEAR LINE FROM KDBQ TO EAST OF KMLI. STRATUS SHOULD LIFT INTO EXTENSIVE CU FIELD AND WILL AID IN LIMITING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F NORTHEAST CWA. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY PTSUNNY OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 60S SW CWA WITH PTCLDY SKIES OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME INCREASE IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING AS MODELS BEGIN TO CONGEAL ON THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION. SPECIFICALLY...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM AREA ALL REMARKABLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWFA MONDAY. THUS SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE AND WILL STICK WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND WITH MORE CONFIDENCE THAN IN RECENT DAYS. FRIDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A WIDE OPEN GULF SUPPORT WARM...BREEZY...AND HUMID. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS SURFACE DEW POINTS APPROACH 70 DEGREES AND A WEAK WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GFS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...LOOKING OVERDONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS DO SHOW SOME REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE ...AND WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMING DO THINK THERE WILL BE SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH MORE UPPER SUPPORT AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY. BY SUNDAY WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A FEW ROUNDS OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS IA. TIMING OF THE FROPA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WOULD LEND ITSELF TO INCREASED RISK OF SEVERE WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND THIS BEARS WATCH. QUIETER FOR MID WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO SETTLE IN. DMD && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT KDBQ AND KMLI WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AM THROUGH MIDDAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVING EAST FROM CENTRAL IA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. HAVE COVERED WITH VCTS WORDING AT MOST SITES FROM LATE AM THROUGH AFTN AND WILL AMEND IF IT LOOKS LIKE A TAF SITE WILL BE IMPACTED. CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY IFR TO MVFR IN THE STORMS. DECREASE IN PCPN EXPECTED WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF HEATING... BEFORE MORE ISOLD TO SCTD REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL JET. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR MENTION THOUGH ATTIM. WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME FOG WITH VSBYS 2-5SM ESPECIALLY AT ANY SITE THAT SEES RAIN DURING THE DAY TDY... THUS SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR LATER FCSTS. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...05 SYNOPSIS...05 SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM...DMD AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
543 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 UPDATED FCST FOR STRATUS AND FOG AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS. LEADING EDGE OF STRATUS NEAR DUBUQUE TO QUAD CITIES LINE AND MAY MOVE A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD OVER NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE PUTTING ON THE BRAKES AS SUN CONTINUES TO RISE. ADDED MENTION OF DENSE FOG WITH THE STRATUS BASED ON OBS. WILL NOT ADJUST HIGH TEMPS ATTIM BUT MAY HAVE TO LOWER A BIT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RVR NOW THAT THE STRATUS HAS MOVED IN. FRESHENED UP POPS WITH SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG HWY 20 CORRIDOR INTO NW IL... OTHERWISE DRY TO START REST OF CWA. BATCH OF CONVECTION IN CENTRAL IA SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD PORTIONS OF WESTERN CWA AND SHOULD MOVE IN AREAS WEST OF CEDAR RAPIDS TO WASHINGTON LINE A BIT LATER THIS AM...BARRING ANY DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO SOUTHWEST CWA AT 07Z AND EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM JUST NORTH OF A RAPID CITY SD TO DES MOINES IA... TO INDIANAPOLIS IN. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS AM SHOWS CONVECTION FOCUSED MOSTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE AXIS ARE ALIGNED. WEAK PERTURBATION MOVING EAST FROM NE AND ATTENDANT WARM...MOIST ADVECTION AIDING WING OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM PORTIONS OF SW-CNTRL-NE IA. LAKE ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW POST FRONTAL AIDING LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LEADING EDGE ROUGHLY ON A LINE FROM MINERAL POINT WI TO STERLING/ROCK FALLS IL... TO PRINCETON IL. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO NOT MOVE MUCH NEXT 24 HOURS AND REMAIN IN VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST CWA. WEAK PERTURBATION(S) AND ATTENDANT SUBTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION IN COMBINATION WITH FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TDY... ALBEIT STILL LARGELY UNORGANIZED AND GENERALLY SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH SOME SUGGESTION THAT BEST COVERAGE MAY BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. SOME DIMINISHING OF PCPN ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNSET BUT MAY SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ACTIVITY LATE EVE/OVRNGT WITH SECONDARY BRANCH OF LOW LEVEL JET AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MO RVR VLY. STRATUS LOOKS TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MAKING INROADS INTO EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS AM... BUT SUNRISE WILL BRING MOVEMENT TO HALT AND HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST FINAL RESTING SPOT FOR STRATUS WILL BE ROUGHLY NEAR LINE FROM KDBQ TO EAST OF KMLI. STRATUS SHOULD LIFT INTO EXTENSIVE CU FIELD AND WILL AID IN LIMITING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F NORTHEAST CWA. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY PTSUNNY OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 60S SW CWA WITH PTCLDY SKIES OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME INCREASE IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING AS MODELS BEGIN TO CONGEAL ON THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION. SPECIFICALLY...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM AREA ALL REMARKABLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWFA MONDAY. THUS SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE AND WILL STICK WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND WITH MORE CONFIDENCE THAN IN RECENT DAYS. FRIDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A WIDE OPEN GULF SUPPORT WARM...BREEZY...AND HUMID. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS SURFACE DEW POINTS APPROACH 70 DEGREES AND A WEAK WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GFS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...LOOKING OVERDONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS DO SHOW SOME REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE ...AND WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMING DO THINK THERE WILL BE SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH MORE UPPER SUPPORT AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY. BY SUNDAY WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A FEW ROUNDS OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS IA. TIMING OF THE FROPA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WOULD LEND ITSELF TO INCREASED RISK OF SEVERE WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND THIS BEARS WATCH. QUIETER FOR MID WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO SETTLE IN. DMD && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014 ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN IA. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY MOVING WEST FROM LAKE MI MAY REACH THE MS RIVER AND THE DBQ AND MLI TERMINALS AROUND OR WITHIN OR A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG AND BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL REACH DBQ AND A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IS BROUGHT IN AT 12Z WITH POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVING AN IMPACT IS TOO LOW TO GO BEYOND A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE MORNING. THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH MAY TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH ARE MENTIONED IN PROB30 GROUPS COVERING THE MORE FAVORABLE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...05 SYNOPSIS...05 SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM...DMD AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
333 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO SOUTHWEST CWA AT 07Z AND EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM JUST NORTH OF A RAPID CITY SD TO DES MOINES IA... TO INDIANAPOLIS IN. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS AM SHOWS CONVECTION FOCUSED MOSTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE AXIS ARE ALIGNED. WEAK PERTURBATION MOVING EAST FROM NE AND ATTENDANT WARM...MOIST ADVECTION AIDING WING OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM PORTIONS OF SW-CNTRL-NE IA. LAKE ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW POST FRONTAL AIDING LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LEADING EDGE ROUGHLY ON A LINE FROM MINERAL POINT WI TO STERLING/ROCK FALLS IL... TO PRINCETON IL. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO NOT MOVE MUCH NEXT 24 HOURS AND REMAIN IN VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST CWA. WEAK PERTURBATION(S) AND ATTENDANT SUBTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION IN COMBINATION WITH FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TDY... ALBEIT STILL LARGELY UNORGANIZED AND GENERALLY SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH SOME SUGGESTION THAT BEST COVERAGE MAY BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. SOME DIMINISHING OF PCPN ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNSET BUT MAY SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ACTIVITY LATE EVE/OVRNGT WITH SECONDARY BRANCH OF LOW LEVEL JET AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MO RVR VLY. STRATUS LOOKS TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MAKING INROADS INTO EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS AM... BUT SUNRISE WILL BRING MOVEMENT TO HALT AND HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST FINAL RESTING SPOT FOR STRATUS WILL BE ROUGHLY NEAR LINE FROM KDBQ TO EAST OF KMLI. STRATUS SHOULD LIFT INTO EXTENSIVE CU FIELD AND WILL AID IN LIMITING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F NORTHEAST CWA. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY PTSUNNY OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 60S SW CWA WITH PTCLDY SKIES OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME INCREASE IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING AS MODELS BEGIN TO CONGEAL ON THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION. SPECIFICALLY...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM AREA ALL REMARKABLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWFA MONDAY. THUS SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE AND WILL STICK WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND WITH MORE CONFIDENCE THAN IN RECENT DAYS. FRIDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A WIDE OPEN GULF SUPPORT WARM...BREEZY...AND HUMID. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS SURFACE DEW POINTS APPROACH 70 DEGREES AND A WEAK WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GFS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...LOOKING OVERDONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS DO SHOW SOME REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE ...AND WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMING DO THINK THERE WILL BE SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LACK OF STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH MORE UPPER SUPPORT AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY. BY SUNDAY WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A FEW ROUNDS OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS IA. TIMING OF THE FROPA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WOULD LEND ITSELF TO INCREASED RISK OF SEVERE WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND THIS BEARS WATCH. QUIETER FOR MID WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO SETTLE IN. DMD && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014 ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN IA. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY MOVING WEST FROM LAKE MI MAY REACH THE MS RIVER AND THE DBQ AND MLI TERMINALS AROUND OR WITHIN OR A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG AND BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL REACH DBQ AND A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IS BROUGHT IN AT 12Z WITH POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVING AN IMPACT IS TOO LOW TO GO BEYOND A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE MORNING. THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH MAY TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH ARE MENTIONED IN PROB30 GROUPS COVERING THE MORE FAVORABLE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...05 SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM...DMD AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
928 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 ANOTHER BAND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGAN DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE SUNSET TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WICHITA METRO. THIS WAS HANDLED BETTER IN PREVIOUS RUC CYCLES WHICH SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WICHITA AREA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER THE MORE ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IS OF MORE CONCERN LATER IN THE NIGHT AS IT FEEDS INTO THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET AND INSTABILITY AXIS FURTHER EAST TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE THE INTENSITY MAY WANE SOMEWHAT FURTHER EAST LATER IN THE NIGHT...EXPECT STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD IMPACT MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE 05-09Z TIME FRAME. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN. KED && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS & A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK BUT NONE-THE-LESS DISCERNIBLE 850-MB THETA-E ADVECTION AXIS EXTENDING FAIRLY CLOSE TO ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. A BROAD MID TO UPPER DECK TROF THAT IS DIGGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON IS `SPARKING` NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN CO TO THE OK PANHANDLE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 HEADLINES: THUNDERSTORMS TO GREATLY INCREASE TONIGHT WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE NEIGHBORHOOD SAT & SAT NIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS POSE A TRIPLE THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL (PERHAPS GOLFBALL-SIZED) 60-70 MPH WINDS & VERY HEAVY RAINS THAT`LL POSE A THREAT FOR FURTHER FLOODING. TONIGHT-SAT NIGHT: THE MID-UPPER DECK TROF POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS SHOULD DIG FURTHER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS ALMOST STRAIGHT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE EARLY SAT MORNING. THIS WOULD PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHWEST KS/ OK PANHANDLE VICINITY OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD STRENGTHEN LOWER-DECK WARM MOIST ADVECTION FROM WESTERN OK TO ACROSS THE KICT NEIGHBORHOOD. WITH THE UPPER-DECK WAVE DEVELOPING A NEGATIVE TILT SAT MORNING INTERACTING WITH A DEEP ULTRA-HIGH OCTANE ENVIRONMENT (SURFACE DEWPOINTS ~70F, 850 MB DEWPOINTS 18-20C & PRECIPITABLE WATERS 1.50-1.80 INCHES) VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE A CERTAINTY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE AS EVIDENCED BY MLCAPES OF ~3,000-4,000 J/KG. AS SUCH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS & WOULD VENTURE TOWARD CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS LATER TONIGHT. AREAS AT GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE WEST OF I-135 WHERE 6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-40KTS. AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED MID-UPPER TROF BEGINS TO PUSH E/NE TOWARD THE MS VALLEY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD GRADUALLY MOVE IN LIKE MANNER WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ALONG & SE OF THE TURNPIKE SAT NIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH WAS EXPLORED FOR SAT BUT CHECKED SWING AS 3-HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY 2.5-3.0 INCHES. SUN-MON: AS THE MID-UPPER TROF SURGES E/NE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENING SW TO WLY FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WOULD KEEP ANY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-70 SUNDAY & SUNDAY NIGHT. THE INTERMISSION WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED FOR BY EARLY SUN MORNING...AN INTENSE CYCLONE WILL WIND UP LIKE AN ALARM CLOCK AS IT DRIFTS EAST FROM THE SASKATCHEWAN/ MANITOBA BORDER TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. A STRONG MID-UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL SURGE SE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIMETER OF THE CYCLONE WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING SE ACROSS KS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD RESULT AS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES SE ACROSS EASTERN KS MON AFTERNOON & EVENING A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 THE STRONG SOUTHERN CANADIAN CYCLONE SHOULD GET FORCED NE OVER ONTARIO AS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE VENTURES OVER THE ROCKIES. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE A PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER TROF EXTENDING SE FROM THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE UPPER-MID MS VALLEY TO PRODUCE FROM TUE THRU PERHAPS THU. DETAILS ON THE STRENGTHEN OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PROVIDED LATER THIS WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM NORTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT...WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSRA IMPACTING THE KRSL AND KSLN TERMINALS. CHANCES SHOULD BE MORE REMOTE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST VALID TIME. KED && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 72 85 70 92 / 60 80 50 0 HUTCHINSON 71 84 69 93 / 80 80 30 0 NEWTON 72 82 69 91 / 70 90 50 10 ELDORADO 72 83 69 90 / 70 90 60 10 WINFIELD-KWLD 73 86 71 92 / 60 70 70 10 RUSSELL 68 86 71 94 / 90 50 10 0 GREAT BEND 69 86 70 94 / 90 50 10 0 SALINA 72 85 70 95 / 90 80 20 10 MCPHERSON 72 83 69 93 / 80 80 30 10 COFFEYVILLE 72 87 72 90 / 50 60 90 20 CHANUTE 72 86 71 90 / 60 70 90 20 IOLA 72 85 70 90 / 60 80 80 20 PARSONS-KPPF 72 86 72 90 / 50 70 90 20 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
613 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014 ...Updated for the aviation discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday) ISSUED AT 1128 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 Later afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected. The best chance for storms will be near the I70 corridor where capping is weaker and there is better moisture convergence. Thermodynamically, the setup is impressive with 3500 J/kg of SBCAPE, 8.5 C/KM lapse rates, and decent boundary layer dewpoints. A few problems with today`s setup though. All the models show backing upper level winds and only about 35 kt of 0-EL shear. This suggests that storm mode tonight will likely be on the HP side. PWATs are forecast to be in the 1.5" range, which is well above normal. This also suggests storms with high precipitation efficiency. Feel the most discrete storms will be up in GLD`s area, where mean flow and boundary layer winds are more orthogonal. There could be an isolated tornado up north, as the HRRR is indicating some updraft helicity. In addition, low level directional and speed shear is not that bad. Given the aforementioned upper level shear, it won`t take long through before you get cold pools and resultant upscale growth, so that should cut down on the tornado chances. Precip will exit the area late tonight. Additional MCS activity is possible tomorrow afternoon, with better moisture convergence and lift along and east of Highway 283. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 The main upper jet and storm track shifts north on Sunday then a northern branch upper trough swings across the Northern and Central Plains late Monday and Monday night with a chance for thunderstorms. Unsettled weather continues in back of the upper trough into Thursday with northwest flow aloft and more chances for showers and thunderstorms. By Friday and upper level ridge is forecast with dry weather for a change. At the surface, a deepening trough of low pressure in the Rockies will give strong southerly winds of 25 to 35 mph on Sunday, with a cold front moving across western Kansas late Monday and winds shifting to the north and gusty. Cooler temps will follow the front as high pressure builds into the Plains with weaker winds into mid next week. Lows will be mild in the 60s and 70s, with highs in the 90s Sunday and Monday, cooling into the 80s Tuesday into Thursday behind the cold front, then back into the 90s by Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 VFR conditions will prevail over the 3 taf sites, with the exception of KHYS, which will have MVFR cigs. A strong upper level wave will bring cold air over the region, and destabilize the atmosphere this evening. A line of strong storms will move east through western Kansas this evening, bringing thunderstorms near each Taf site for 2 to 3 hours. Vsbys could go down in any downpour, but for now, doubt any one Taf site will see the stronger storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 67 89 67 95 / 40 20 10 10 GCK 65 89 66 97 / 60 10 10 10 EHA 63 91 63 101 / 40 10 0 0 LBL 66 92 67 99 / 50 10 10 0 HYS 66 87 67 95 / 70 30 10 10 P28 69 88 70 94 / 20 30 20 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sugden LONG TERM...Kruse AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
202 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014 ...UPDATE TO LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 Enhanced PoP values were included across the highway 283 corridor and eastward very early this morning as strong cape and weak shear pulse type thunderstorms may continue to be forced along gusty outflow winds from north central Kansas into central Kansas. The low level jet was very weak judging by local RAP soundings. With this in mind the PoPs will continue to be lowered in the far western sections of the forecast area in the nowcast timeframe. Later today and tonight brings yet a better overall chance for a few severe storms with hail and damaging wind the primary threat through the evening hours. By Friday a synoptic scale wave from the west crosses the Rockies onto the High Plains region in an equally or more unstable airmass than previous days. Much of western Kansas appears in the warm sector for this event, but a warm front appears to be a focus for all severe weather modes farther north (mainly north of Interstate 70). Surface based thunderstorms should develop in vicinity of the surface low/dryline with a few supercells starting the beginning of a busy severe weather episode through the evening on Friday. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 Medium range models indicate an upper level trough of low pressure shifting east out of the Western High Plains into the Central Plains Saturday increasing the likelihood for thunderstorms from the Dakotas southward into portions of Kansas. As this system moves across the region, an associated upper level jet is projected to dip southeast across the Central Rockies, nosing into the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas placing a left exit region across western Kansas. Meanwhile, ample low level moisture will continue to pool ahead of a surface trough edging eastward across western Kansas. Favorable dynamic support aloft combined with increased convergence near the surface will set the stage for possible thunderstorms across central and more eastern portions of southwest Kansas potentially through early Saturday afternoon. Another round of storms may be possible across south central Kansas Saturday evening as the aforementioned surface trough is expected to stall out somewhere generally across the area before washing out. Drier conditions are then expected through Monday as the flow aloft weakens while becoming more zonal. The next significant chance for precip will return Monday night into Tuesday as a closed off upper level low develops and strengthens while pushing eastward along the U.S. border in southern Canada. As the closed off low deepens, an attendant cold front will push southeast into and across Western Kansas Monday before stalling out somewhere in the vicinity of the Oklahoma border. Thunderstorms will be possible across central and portions of southwest Kansas Monday night, with the best chances in vicinity of the boundary as a strong upper level jet core dives southeast into the Central Plains. The intensity of any storm development will be dependent on how far south the upper level jet reaches before lifting northeast. Temperatures are expected to be near normal Saturday even as a surface trough moves through western Kansas turning the low level flow more northerly. Slightly cooler air will filter southward into the region limiting highs to the upper 80s(F) to near 90F Saturday afternoon. Widespread 90s(F) are likely Sunday as lee side troughing strengthens across eastern Colorado helping to draw warmer air back north into the region. Slightly cooler temperatures are likely once again Monday as a weak cold front pushes through western Kansas by early to mid afternoon. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 VFR conditions are expected into Friday. South winds of 20-30kt will decrease a bit after dark, then pickup again after 12Z. A few widely scattered thunderstorms may develop after 00Z, some may be severe with locally heavy rainfall if they develop. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 68 90 67 90 / 20 20 30 40 GCK 67 94 66 91 / 20 40 30 30 EHA 66 97 64 93 / 20 30 20 10 LBL 68 95 67 92 / 20 40 20 30 HYS 69 89 69 90 / 20 20 60 50 P28 70 90 71 89 / 20 20 20 50 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Russell LONG TERM...JJohnson AVIATION...Kruse
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1216 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014 ...Updated for Short Term... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 Enhanced PoP values were included across the highway 283 corridor and eastward very early this morning as strong cape and weak shear pulse type thunderstorms may continue to be forced along gusty outflow winds from north central Kansas into central Kansas. The low level jet was very weak judging by local RAP soundings. With this in mind the PoPs will continue to be lowered in the far western sections of the forecast area in the nowcast timeframe. Later today and tonight brings yet a better overall chance for a few severe storms with hail and damaging wind the primary threat through the evening hours. By Friday a synoptic scale wave from the west crosses the Rockies onto the High Plains region in an equally or more unstable airmass than previous days. Much of western Kansas appears in the warm sector for this event, but a warm front appears to be a focus for all severe weather modes farther north (mainly north of Interstate 70). Surface based thunderstorms should develop in vicinity of the surface low/dryline with a few supercells starting the beginning of a busy severe weather episode through the evening on Friday. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 Remnants of the upper wave may still be moving out of the area on Saturday, with a conditionally unstable airmass still in place. Regeneration of convection cold easily occur on outflow boundaries anytime during the day, but most likely over central KS, as the pattern supports north winds in the far west. At the same time, the wave could move through faster, clearing the area of any significant widespread severe threat. By late in the weekend, the upper pattern will evolve such that the westerly jet will drift into the northern tier of states with a closed attendant low developing over central Canadian provinces. The westerly height gradient will support lee troughing and moderate southerly winds over western Kansas Sunday and Sunday night. Thunderstorms could be possible again buy Sunday afternoon if the surface front modeled by the EC/GFS is able to move through the areas earlier than forecast. However in absence of any convective rain cooled air, temperatures will continue on the warming trend through the weekend with only the relative greenness form recent rains to keep temperatures from soaring to 100 or more degrees by Sunday. During the Monday through Wednesday time period, a strong upper level low pressure system over southern Canada will move into the eastern Canadian provinces while a high pressure ridge moves into western North America. The GFS and ECMWF show a a dry cold frontal passage across western Kansas during the day Monday. By Monday evening the front stalls out over northern Oklahoma which looks reasonable given the upper ridge over the northern and central Rockies and northwesterly flow aloft into the northern and central Plains. The models show precipitation developing Monday night as southerly flow at 850 millibars increases across the southern into the central Plains and isentropic lift develops over the frontal boundary. This pattern should continue into the middle part of the week and provide additional chances for MCS development off the eastern slopes of the Rockies into western Kansas. Later in the week, the models show the upper ridge building eastward into the central part of North America which should bring drier conditions along with warmer temperatures to western Kansas for the 4th of July weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 VFR conditions are expected into Friday. South winds of 20-30kt will decrease a bit after dark, then pickup again after 12Z. A few widely scattered thunderstorms may develop after 00Z, some may be severe with locally heavy rainfall if they develop. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 90 67 92 67 / 10 30 10 30 GCK 92 67 93 66 / 10 20 20 30 EHA 94 66 94 64 / 20 30 10 10 LBL 94 68 96 67 / 10 20 10 20 HYS 90 68 91 69 / 40 30 20 60 P28 90 68 92 71 / 100 30 10 20 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Russell LONG TERM...Gerard/Russell AVIATION...Kruse
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1113 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2014 AS OF 230 AM CDT...130 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 REMAINING IN THE LOW 70S. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BASED ON WSR-88D RADAR DATA...THERE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE FED A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A MESO-LOW WAS ALSO INDICATED...CENTERED BETWEEN MCCOOK NEBRASKA AND OBERLIN KANSAS...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 20 MPH. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OUR MAIN WEATHER MAKER...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. FOR TODAY...YET ANOTHER MESSY CONVECTIVE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. MORNING CONVECTION MAY STILL BE ONGOING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEFORE ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HEADS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION. A COOLER... STABLE AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED AS A RESULT OF THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. THEREFORE... BELIEVE THAT OUR AREA SHOULD BE DEVOID OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. LATEST SIGNALS FROM THE HRRR MODEL...ONE THAT HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...INDICATES THIS TREND SO HAVE WEIGHTED TODAYS FORECAST HEAVILY TOWARDS THE HRRR. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY DOWN COMPARED TO FORECAST GUIDANCE AND MAY NEED TO LOWER SOME MORE DEEPENING ON REMAINING CLOUD COVER. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH FORMS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AIRMASS RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVER EAST COLORADO AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. YET ANOTHER WEAKER...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. OVERALL...TRENDED POPS LOWER FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON THE IDEA A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL PLAGUE STORM DEVELOPMENT. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...UP TO 60 KTS POSSIBLE...DEVELOPS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. FOR TOMORROW...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MUCH LARGER SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...POSSIBLY AN OUTBREAK. THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA. A DRYLINE SHOULD SETUP... INITIALLY ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER BEFORE SLIDING SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS WITH RECENT DRYLINE EVENTS... BELIEVE THAT A FEW MODELS ARE PULLING THE DRYLINE TOO FAR EAST TOO QUICKLY. INSTEAD...DRYLINE SHOULD BE HELD FURTHER WEST BY A LEE TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER. HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLOWER NAM AND ECMWF WITH DRYLINE POSITIONING. BY AFTERNOON...A CAP SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY SUPPRESSED UNTIL 21Z...AROUND 3 PM MDT. AS THIS HAPPENS... INSTABILITY BUILDS UP AND LEADS TO EXPLOSIVE STORM GROWTH. SBCAPE OF 3000+ J/KG AND 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM...0-6KM BULK SHEAR UP TO 50 KTS AND 0-3 KM HELICITY OF 100-250 M2/S2 INDICATE THAT ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE. SOME LARGE HAIL MAY BE SIGNIFICANT... GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY EAST OF A BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...QUITE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN. A COLD FRONT IS FORCED DOWN BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY IN ADDITION TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A FEW STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2014 THE EXTENDED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED. SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT AND WILL RESULT IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON MONDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY ALONG WITH MONDAY AS NO STRONG SIGNALS ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE REALLY COME TOGETHER FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS STILL NOT VERY HIGH DUE TO TIMING OF DISTURBANCES AND GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND SURFACE FEATURES...SO WOULD EXPECT CHANGES AS EACH DAY APPROACHES THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND WILL COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2014 BREEZY SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH STORM MOTIONS TAKING THEM NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...PROBABILITY OF IMPACTING EITHER KGLD OR KMCK IS RATHER LOW. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RRH LONG TERM...ALW AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
700 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014 ...Updated aviation discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 Enhanced PoP values were included across the highway 283 corridor and eastward very early this morning as strong cape and weak shear pulse type thunderstorms may continue to be forced along gusty outflow winds from north central Kansas into central Kansas. The low level jet was very weak judging by local RAP soundings. With this in mind the PoPs will continue to be lowered in the far western sections of the forecast area in the nowcast timeframe. Later today and tonight brings yet a better overall chance for a few severe storms with hail and damaging wind the primary threat through the evening hours. By Friday a synoptic scale wave from the west crosses the Rockies onto the High Plains region in an equally or more unstable airmass than previous days. Much of western Kansas appears in the warm sector for this event, but a warm front appears to be a focus for all severe weather modes farther north (mainly north of Interstate 70). Surface based thunderstorms should develop in vicinity of the surface low/dryline with a few supercells starting the beginning of a busy severe weather episode through the evening on Friday. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 Remnants of the upper wave may still be moving out of the area on Saturday, with a conditionally unstable airmass still in place. Regeneration of convection cold easily occur on outflow boundaries anytime during the day, but most likely over central KS, as the pattern supports north winds in the far west. At the same time, the wave could move through faster, clearing the area of any significant widespread severe threat. By late in the weekend, the upper pattern will evolve such that the westerly jet will drift into the northern tier of states with a closed attendant low developing over central Canadian provinces. The westerly height gradient will support lee troughing and moderate southerly winds over western Kansas Sunday and Sunday night. Thunderstorms could be possible again buy Sunday afternoon if the surface front modeled by the EC/GFS is able to move through the areas earlier than forecast. However in absence of any convective rain cooled air, temperatures will continue on the warming trend through the weekend with only the relative greenness form recent rains to keep temperatures from soaring to 100 or more degrees by Sunday. During the Monday through Wednesday time period, a strong upper level low pressure system over southern Canada will move into the eastern Canadian provinces while a high pressure ridge moves into western North America. The GFS and ECMWF show a a dry cold frontal passage across western Kansas during the day Monday. By Monday evening the front stalls out over northern Oklahoma which looks reasonable given the upper ridge over the northern and central Rockies and northwesterly flow aloft into the northern and central Plains. The models show precipitation developing Monday night as southerly flow at 850 millibars increases across the southern into the central Plains and isentropic lift develops over the frontal boundary. This pattern should continue into the middle part of the week and provide additional chances for MCS development off the eastern slopes of the Rockies into western Kansas. Later in the week, the models show the upper ridge building eastward into the central part of North America which should bring drier conditions along with warmer temperatures to western Kansas for the 4th of July weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 VFR ceilings can be expected at Garden City, Dodge City and Hays through at least early afternoon. MVFR to occasional IFR cigs will be possible and will be included in TEMPO groups during much of the morning. Scattered thunderstorms will continue from around Dodge City through Hays until around 15z before diminishing. MVFR ceilings may linger in the Hays area into this afternoon. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop again late this afternoon and evening across the central High Plains. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 90 67 92 71 / 10 30 10 30 GCK 92 67 93 70 / 10 20 20 30 EHA 94 66 94 68 / 20 30 10 20 LBL 94 68 96 71 / 10 20 10 20 HYS 90 68 91 73 / 50 30 20 60 P28 90 68 92 75 / 20 30 10 20 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Russell LONG TERM...Gerard/Russell AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
523 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2014 AS OF 230 AM CDT...130 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 REMAINING IN THE LOW 70S. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BASED ON WSR-88D RADAR DATA...THERE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE FED A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A MESO-LOW WAS ALSO INDICATED...CENTERED BETWEEN MCCOOK NEBRASKA AND OBERLIN KANSAS...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 20 MPH. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OUR MAIN WEATHER MAKER...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. FOR TODAY...YET ANOTHER MESSY CONVECTIVE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. MORNING CONVECTION MAY STILL BE ONGOING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEFORE ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HEADS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION. A COOLER... STABLE AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED AS A RESULT OF THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. THEREFORE... BELIEVE THAT OUR AREA SHOULD BE DEVOID OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. LATEST SIGNALS FROM THE HRRR MODEL...ONE THAT HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...INDICATES THIS TREND SO HAVE WEIGHTED TODAYS FORECAST HEAVILY TOWARDS THE HRRR. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY DOWN COMPARED TO FORECAST GUIDANCE AND MAY NEED TO LOWER SOME MORE DEEPENING ON REMAINING CLOUD COVER. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH FORMS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AIRMASS RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVER EAST COLORADO AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. YET ANOTHER WEAKER...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. OVERALL...TRENDED POPS LOWER FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON THE IDEA A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL PLAGUE STORM DEVELOPMENT. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...UP TO 60 KTS POSSIBLE...DEVELOPS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. FOR TOMORROW...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MUCH LARGER SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...POSSIBLY AN OUTBREAK. THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA. A DRYLINE SHOULD SETUP... INITIALLY ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER BEFORE SLIDING SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS WITH RECENT DRYLINE EVENTS... BELIEVE THAT A FEW MODELS ARE PULLING THE DRYLINE TOO FAR EAST TOO QUICKLY. INSTEAD...DRYLINE SHOULD BE HELD FURTHER WEST BY A LEE TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER. HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLOWER NAM AND ECMWF WITH DRYLINE POSITIONING. BY AFTERNOON...A CAP SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY SUPPRESSED UNTIL 21Z...AROUND 3 PM MDT. AS THIS HAPPENS... INSTABILITY BUILDS UP AND LEADS TO EXPLOSIVE STORM GROWTH. SBCAPE OF 3000+ J/KG AND 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM...0-6KM BULK SHEAR UP TO 50 KTS AND 0-3 KM HELICITY OF 100-250 M2/S2 INDICATE THAT ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE. SOME LARGE HAIL MAY BE SIGNIFICANT... GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY EAST OF A BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...QUITE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN. A COLD FRONT IS FORCED DOWN BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY IN ADDITION TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A FEW STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2014 THE EXTENDED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED. SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT AND WILL RESULT IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON MONDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY ALONG WITH MONDAY AS NO STRONG SIGNALS ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE REALLY COME TOGETHER FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS STILL NOT VERY HIGH DUE TO TIMING OF DISTURBANCES AND GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND SURFACE FEATURES...SO WOULD EXPECT CHANGES AS EACH DAY APPROACHES THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND WILL COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 523 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2014 VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MAJORITY OF THIS TAF PERIOD. STORMS HAVE CLEARED THE AREA WITH ONLY DENSE ANVIL CIRRUS REMAINING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING. SOUTH WINDS STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY AS A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE WEST. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WITH A COOLER...MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE DUE TO THIS MORNINGS STORMS...THINKING THAT STORMS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD. THEREFORE...CONTINUED THE MENTION A PROB30 -TSRA GROUP. HOWEVER...DID MOVE IT BACK A COUPLE HOURS AS IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR STORMS TO MOVE IN FROM COLORADO ONCE AGAIN. SOME STRATUS MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING EAST OF A DRYLINE. THE STRATUS COULD REACH KMCK SO PLACED A SCT010 GROUP INTO TAF. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RRH LONG TERM...ALW AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
412 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 Enhanced PoP values were included across the highway 283 corridor and eastward very early this morning as strong cape and weak shear pulse type thunderstorms may continue to be forced along gusty outflow winds from north central Kansas into central Kansas. The low level jet was very weak judging by local RAP soundings. With this in mind the PoPs will continue to be lowered in the far western sections of the forecast area in the nowcast timeframe. Later today and tonight brings yet a better overall chance for a few severe storms with hail and damaging wind the primary threat through the evening hours. By Friday a synoptic scale wave from the west crosses the Rockies onto the High Plains region in an equally or more unstable airmass than previous days. Much of western Kansas appears in the warm sector for this event, but a warm front appears to be a focus for all severe weather modes farther north (mainly north of Interstate 70). Surface based thunderstorms should develop in vicinity of the surface low/dryline with a few supercells starting the beginning of a busy severe weather episode through the evening on Friday. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 Remnants of the upper wave may still be moving out of the area on Saturday, with a conditionally unstable airmass still in place. Regeneration of convection cold easily occur on outflow boundaries anytime during the day, but most likely over central KS, as the pattern supports north winds in the far west. At the same time, the wave could move through faster, clearing the area of any significant widespread severe threat. By late in the weekend, the upper pattern will evolve such that the westerly jet will drift into the northern tier of states with a closed attendant low developing over central Canadian provinces. The westerly height gradient will support lee troughing and moderate southerly winds over western Kansas Sunday and Sunday night. Thunderstorms could be possible again buy Sunday afternoon if the surface front modeled by the EC/GFS is able to move through the areas earlier than forecast. However in absence of any convective rain cooled air, temperatures will continue on the warming trend through the weekend with only the relative greenness form recent rains to keep temperatures from soaring to 100 or more degrees by Sunday. During the Monday through Wednesday time period, a strong upper level low pressure system over southern Canada will move into the eastern Canadian provinces while a high pressure ridge moves into western North America. The GFS and ECMWF show a a dry cold frontal passage across western Kansas during the day Monday. By Monday evening the front stalls out over northern Oklahoma which looks reasonable given the upper ridge over the northern and central Rockies and northwesterly flow aloft into the northern and central Plains. The models show precipitation developing Monday night as southerly flow at 850 millibars increases across the southern into the central Plains and isentropic lift develops over the frontal boundary. This pattern should continue into the middle part of the week and provide additional chances for MCS development off the eastern slopes of the Rockies into western Kansas. Later in the week, the models show the upper ridge building eastward into the central part of North America which should bring drier conditions along with warmer temperatures to western Kansas for the 4th of July weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 Radar observations will be monitored for the next couple of hours for convective redevelopment, which would be a result of an increasing low level jet. Currently, no convective allowing model is handling the situation well as a storm slowly decays near Ulysses. Forecasting thunder in any terminals is not likely at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 90 67 92 71 / 10 20 10 30 GCK 92 67 93 70 / 10 20 20 30 EHA 92 66 94 68 / 20 10 10 20 LBL 93 68 96 71 / 10 10 10 20 HYS 90 68 91 73 / 20 20 20 60 P28 90 68 92 75 / 20 20 10 20 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Russell LONG TERM...Gerard/Russell AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
223 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2014 AS OF 230 AM CDT...130 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 REMAINING IN THE LOW 70S. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BASED ON WSR-88D RADAR DATA...THERE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE FED A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A MESO-LOW WAS ALSO INDICATED...CENTERED BETWEEN MCCOOK NEBRASKA AND OBERLIN KANSAS...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 20 MPH. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OUR MAIN WEATHER MAKER...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. FOR TODAY...YET ANOTHER MESSY CONVECTIVE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. MORNING CONVECTION MAY STILL BE ONGOING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEFORE ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HEADS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION. A COOLER... STABLE AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED AS A RESULT OF THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. THEREFORE... BELIEVE THAT OUR AREA SHOULD BE DEVOID OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. LATEST SIGNALS FROM THE HRRR MODEL...ONE THAT HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...INDICATES THIS TREND SO HAVE WEIGHTED TODAYS FORECAST HEAVILY TOWARDS THE HRRR. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY DOWN COMPARED TO FORECAST GUIDANCE AND MAY NEED TO LOWER SOME MORE DEEPENING ON REMAINING CLOUD COVER. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH FORMS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AIRMASS RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVER EAST COLORADO AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. YET ANOTHER WEAKER...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. OVERALL...TRENDED POPS LOWER FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON THE IDEA A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL PLAGUE STORM DEVELOPMENT. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...UP TO 60 KTS POSSIBLE...DEVELOPS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. FOR TOMORROW...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MUCH LARGER SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...POSSIBLY AN OUTBREAK. THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA. A DRYLINE SHOULD SETUP... INITIALLY ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER BEFORE SLIDING SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS WITH RECENT DRYLINE EVENTS... BELIEVE THAT A FEW MODELS ARE PULLING THE DRYLINE TOO FAR EAST TOO QUICKLY. INSTEAD...DRYLINE SHOULD BE HELD FURTHER WEST BY A LEE TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER. HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLOWER NAM AND ECMWF WITH DRYLINE POSITIONING. BY AFTERNOON...A CAP SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY SUPPRESSED UNTIL 21Z...AROUND 3 PM MDT. AS THIS HAPPENS... INSTABILITY BUILDS UP AND LEADS TO EXPLOSIVE STORM GROWTH. SBCAPE OF 3000+ J/KG AND 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM...0-6KM BULK SHEAR UP TO 50 KTS AND 0-3 KM HELICITY OF 100-250 M2/S2 INDICATE THAT ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE. SOME LARGE HAIL MAY BE SIGNIFICANT... GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY EAST OF A BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...QUITE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN. A COLD FRONT IS FORCED DOWN BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY IN ADDITION TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A FEW STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2014 THE EXTENDED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED. SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT AND WILL RESULT IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON MONDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY ALONG WITH MONDAY AS NO STRONG SIGNALS ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE REALLY COME TOGETHER FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS STILL NOT VERY HIGH DUE TO TIMING OF DISTURBANCES AND GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND SURFACE FEATURES...SO WOULD EXPECT CHANGES AS EACH DAY APPROACHES THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND WILL COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY PAST MCK AND GLD THIS EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AS OF TAF ISSUANCE TIME. DO NOT EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BE AS LONG LIVED AS THE ONES THAT MOVED THROUGH PREVIOUSLY...SO HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VICINITY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT GLD AND MCK THROUGH 08-09Z. AFTER 09Z...EXPECT SKIES TO BEGIN CLEARING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AFTER 16Z THURSDAY MORNING AS A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE VICINITY OF GLD AFTER 22Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RRH LONG TERM...ALW AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
217 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2014 AS OF 230 AM CDT...130 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 REMAINING IN THE LOW 70S. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. BASED ON WSR-88D RADAR DATA...THERE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE FED A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A MESO-LOW WAS ALSO INDICATED...CENTERED BETWEEN MCCOOK NEBRASKA AND OBERLIN KANSAS...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 20 MPH. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OUR MAIN WEATHER MAKER...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. FOR TODAY...YET ANOTHER MESSY CONVECTIVE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. MORNING CONVECTION MAY STILL BE ONGOING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEFORE ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HEADS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION. A COOLER... STABLE AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED AS A RESULT OF THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. THEREFORE... BELIEVE THAT OUR AREA SHOULD BE DEVOID OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. LATEST SIGNALS FROM THE HRRR MODEL...ONE THAT HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...INDICATES THIS TREND SO HAVE WEIGHTED TODAYS FORECAST HEAVILY TOWARDS THE HRRR. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY DOWN COMPARED TO FORECAST GUIDANCE AND MAY NEED TO LOWER SOME MORE DEEPENING ON REMAINING CLOUD COVER. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH FORMS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AIRMASS RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVER EAST COLORADO AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. YET ANOTHER WEAKER...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. OVERALL...TRENDED POPS LOWER FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON THE IDEA A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL PLAGUE STORM DEVELOPMENT. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...UP TO 60 KTS POSSIBLE...DEVELOPS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. FOR TOMORROW...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MUCH LARGER SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...POSSIBLY AN OUTBREAK. THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA. A DRYLINE SHOULD SETUP... INITIALLY ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER BEFORE SLIDING SLIGHTLY EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS WITH RECENT DRYLINE EVENTS... BELIEVE THAT A FEW MODELS ARE PULLING THE DRYLINE TOO FAR EAST TOO QUICKLY. INSTEAD...DRYLINE SHOULD BE HELD FURTHER WEST BY A LEE TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER. HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLOWER NAM AND ECMWF WITH DRYLINE POSITIONING. BY AFTERNOON...A CAP SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY SUPPRESSED UNTIL 21Z...AROUND 3 PM MDT. AS THIS HAPPENS... INSTABILITY BUILDS UP AND LEADS TO EXPLOSIVE STORM GROWTH. SBCAPE OF 3000+ J/KG AND 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM...0-6KM BULK SHEAR UP TO 50 KTS AND 0-3 KM HELICITY OF 100-250 M2/S2 INDICATE THAT ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE. SOME LARGE HAIL MAY BE SIGNIFICANT... GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY EAST OF A BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...QUITE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN. A COLD FRONT IS FORCED DOWN BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY IN ADDITION TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A FEW STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014 THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BEST MOISTURE AND JET SUPPORT SUGGEST BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. ON FRIDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT SO DO THE HIGHER POPS. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. SHOULD SEE A LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY SATURDAY BEHIND FRIDAY NIGHTS SYSTEM. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO UPPER 60S EAST OF THE BORDER. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA WITH LOW TO MID 60S EAST. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE 80S. COULD SEE SOME 90S IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER FLOW WESTERLY TO START THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST. SOME MINOR WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW FAVORING SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE NORMAL WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY PAST MCK AND GLD THIS EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AS OF TAF ISSUANCE TIME. DO NOT EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BE AS LONG LIVED AS THE ONES THAT MOVED THROUGH PREVIOUSLY...SO HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VICINITY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT GLD AND MCK THROUGH 08-09Z. AFTER 09Z...EXPECT SKIES TO BEGIN CLEARING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION AFTER 16Z THURSDAY MORNING AS A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE VICINITY OF GLD AFTER 22Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RRH LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
117 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER SLOWLY CREEPING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE ALSO IS SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. HOWEVER...THE DEAD CALM WINDS AT A LOT OF LOCATIONS COUPLED WITH THE CLOUD COVER IS HINDERING A LOT OF THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. QUITE A FEW OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A GOOD 3 TO 7 DEW POINT DEPRESSION. AT THIS POINT...IT SEEMS THE FOG MENTION IN THE HWO IS SUFFICIENT. OTHERWISE...UPLOADED LATEST OBS AND SENT THE GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014 WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVING COMPLETELY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH THE HRRR MODEL SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...DECIDED TO REMOVE PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOKING AT RADAR IMAGERY UPSTREAM...THERE WERE ONLY A FEW ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA...AND THESE SHOULD DIE OUT WELL BEFORE THEY COULD ARRIVE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO UPDATED PER THE REMOVAL OF RAIN FROM THE FORECAST. CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG...WHICH COULD BE DENSE AT TIMES NEAR BODIES OF WATER AT IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL...IN THE FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014 UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY OF SHOWER AND STORM EVOLUTION ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH 2Z THIS EVENING BEFORE EVERYTHING DISSIPATES. FOG IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 5Z TONIGHT. THE FOG COULD BE DENSE AT TIMES NEAR BODIES OF WATER...IN OUR DEEPER VALLEYS...AND AT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY. THE LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST PERIOD WAS REMOVED TO MAKE THE FORECAST CURRENT AS WELL. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO UPDATED TO REMOVE THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD AND ANY OTHER OUTDATED WORDING LEFT OVER FROM THE DAY SHIFT. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014 SOME POP UP SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY GO AWAY AS THE SUN GOES DOWN TODAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. EXPECTING SOME FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THERE WILL BE A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND THE RADIATIVE COOLING. THERE MAY BE SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG IN PLACES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW IS A BIT OF A STRUGGLE. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING SOME AN OMEGA SPIKE DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. SOME OF THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES WERE NOT FORECASTING ANY PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER WITH THE FRONT BEING NEARBY AND WITH MORE THAN ONE MODEL INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR RAIN...DECIDED TO KEEP THE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...THE DEWPOINTS WILL DROP OFF A LITTLE WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LOWER THE LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE HIGHS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY SEASONABLE IN THE MID 80S. WITH THE LOWER HUMIDITY...IT SHOULD FEEL A LITTLE MORE COMFORTABLE TOMORROW. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014 A WARM AND MUGGY SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL BE PROMINENT...THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LEND ITSELF TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (30-40 PERCENT) SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY FLIRTING WITH 90 EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE GETTING BEAT DOWN FROM THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT APPEARS FAIRLY WEAK AND STRUNG OUT IN THE MODELING BY THE TIME IT MAKES IT HERE SO WILL SIMPLY CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY. THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AND GIVE US ANY REPRIEVE FROM THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS BEYOND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS STAYED CLEAR OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF 1 TO 3 KNOT WINDS NEEDED FOR THE MIXING TO GET FOG. ALSO DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE TAF SITES ARE ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 6 DEGREES AT THIS POINT. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE PUT IN MVFR TO IFR FOG LATER TONIGHT AT THE SITES IN ANTICIPATED OF COOLING TEMPS AT LEAST A DEGREE OF TWO OFF FROM THE DEW POINT. MOST FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z TO 14Z WITH JUST SOME LIGHT WINDS AND 5 KFT CLOUD LAYER FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY POP UP IN THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY BUT CHANCES ARE MINIMAL. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1150 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .DISCUSSION... 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. && .AVIATION... ANOTHER MCS/MCV DEVELOPING OFF THE SE TX/SW LA COASTAL WATERS AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING...WITH LIMITED CONVECTION INLAND. LIKE YESTERDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS CONVECTION FORMING/SPREADING N AND NE ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PLACED TEMPO GROUP FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF TSRA & MVFR CEILING/VSBY FROM 20-24Z THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA FORMING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRI...POSSIBLY SPREADING INLAND LATER IN THE MORNING. TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES ARE ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC WITH THESE TYPE OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS. DML && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014/ DISCUSSION... FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. AVIATION... AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL BUT KAEX WHERE IFR IS CURRENTLY REPORTED. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STABILIZED AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS MORNING...HELD OFF MENTIONING THUNDER UNTIL THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAIN...THIS MESHES WELL WITH 4KM SPC WRF AND LATEST HRRR RUNS. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT ONCE THIS CONVECTION COMES TO AN END. 13 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014/ SYNOPSIS... LATEST WV IMAGERY/UA ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE ERN GULF AND ANOTHER TO THE WEST OFF THE BAJA COAST...WITH ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE ACRS PORTIONS OF THE WRN GULF. KLCH RADAR A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACRS CNTL/WRN LA AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE TO THE SW. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE WEST ACRS THE NRN GULF KEEPING LT SELY WINDS OVER THE REGION. DISCUSSION... ANOTHER WET DAY ON TAP AS THE PERSISTENT WEAKNESS/TROF ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE FUNNELED OVER THE REGION BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE ERN GULF AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF. PRECIP WATER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV 2 INCHES. THE ACTIVITY TO THE SW WILL SPREAD NE THIS MORNING...REACHING OUR AREA BY EARLY TO MID MORNING. AS DAYTIME HEATING INTERACTS WITH THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD BY AFTN. AGAIN ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LESS THAN TODAY AND YESTERDAY AS THE TROF ALOFT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE WEAKENING TROF/SHEAR AXIS LIFTS NORTH AND UPPER RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACRS THE AREA. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AS IT MOVES WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIMITING ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIMIT ANY WARMUP TODAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE 80S. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROF WEAKENS AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BEGINS TO DECREASE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SUN WILL BRING AFTN HIGHS BACK TO NEAR OR ABV NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER (OR POSSIBLY MIDDLE) 90S. MARINE... SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ERN GULF CONTINUES TO RIDGE WEST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WRN ZONES TONIGHT (AND ARE HEADLINED IN THE CWF PRODUCT). SCEC SHOULD GRADUALLY EXTEND EAST THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH MARGINAL ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 75 87 76 91 77 / 40 60 30 30 20 KBPT 76 88 77 90 78 / 40 60 30 30 20 KAEX 73 87 73 90 74 / 40 60 20 50 10 KLFT 74 87 76 90 76 / 40 50 30 40 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
659 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .DISCUSSION... FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. && .AVIATION... AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL BUT KAEX WHERE IFR IS CURRENTLY REPORTED. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STABILIZED AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS MORNING...HELD OFF MENTIONING THUNDER UNTIL THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAIN...THIS MESHES WELL WITH 4KM SPC WRF AND LATEST HRRR RUNS. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT ONCE THIS CONVECTION COMES TO AN END. 13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014/ SYNOPSIS... LATEST WV IMAGERY/UA ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE ERN GULF AND ANOTHER TO THE WEST OFF THE BAJA COAST...WITH ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE ACRS PORTIONS OF THE WRN GULF. KLCH RADAR A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACRS CNTL/WRN LA AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE TO THE SW. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE WEST ACRS THE NRN GULF KEEPING LT SELY WINDS OVER THE REGION. DISCUSSION... ANOTHER WET DAY ON TAP AS THE PERSISTENT WEAKNESS/TROF ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION. ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE FUNNELED OVER THE REGION BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE ERN GULF AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF. PRECIP WATER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV 2 INCHES. THE ACTIVITY TO THE SW WILL SPREAD NE THIS MORNING...REACHING OUR AREA BY EARLY TO MID MORNING. AS DAYTIME HEATING INTERACTS WITH THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD BY AFTN. AGAIN ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LESS THAN TODAY AND YESTERDAY AS THE TROF ALOFT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE WEAKENING TROF/SHEAR AXIS LIFTS NORTH AND UPPER RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACRS THE AREA. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AS IT MOVES WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIMITING ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIMIT ANY WARMUP TODAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE 80S. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROF WEAKENS AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BEGINS TO DECREASE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SUN WILL BRING AFTN HIGHS BACK TO NEAR OR ABV NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER (OR POSSIBLY MIDDLE) 90S. MARINE... SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ERN GULF CONTINUES TO RIDGE WEST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WRN ZONES TONIGHT (AND ARE HEADLINED IN THE CWF PRODUCT). SCEC SHOULD GRADUALLY EXTEND EAST THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH MARGINAL ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 86 75 87 76 / 80 40 60 30 KBPT 87 76 88 77 / 80 40 60 30 KAEX 84 73 87 73 / 80 40 60 20 KLFT 86 75 87 76 / 80 40 50 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ PUBLIC/MARINE...24 AVIATION...13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1148 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014 .AVIATION...NEXT SHORT WAVE OVER IN TEXAS IS PROGGED TO APPROACH BPT AND LCH IN A FEW HOURS WITH IFR TSTMS. SOME IFR CIGS AROUND AEX SHOULD LIFT TO VFR SOON. TIMING OF UPCOMING SHORT WAVE IS SKETCHY BUT WILL GO FOR VCTS AFTER DAYBREAK. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORT WAVE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS SO WILL BRING PREDOMINANT -TSRA BUT THERE ARE NO SIGNALS FOR LESS THAN VFR AS YET. USED THE SHORT RANGE HRRR TO PROG MVFR TSTMS INTO LFT AND ARA AFTER DAYBREAK. SWEENEY && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014/ DISCUSSION... 00Z U/A ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA ATTM...AND DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE HAS HELPED SHUT OFF THE PRECIP OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST/SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE PER 00Z KLCH SOUNDING...WHILE THE U/A ANALYSIS/WV IMAGERY DEPICT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM CROSSING CNTL TX. COMBO OF THESE SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWS RAIN DEVELOPING OVER S-CNTL TX...THEREFORE THE INHERITED HIGH POPS OVER GENERALLY THE SERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS GOOD. ELSEWHERE JUST MADE MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. 25 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014/ AVIATION...UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH PERIODS OF TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT SET UP BY A LONG THETCH OUT OF THE CARRIBBEAN. NEXT IMPULSE AFFECTING LCH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED IFR IN TSTMS. ANOTHER IMPULSE LOOKS TO AFFECT BPT, LFT AND ARA TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH IFR IN TSTMS WHILE LCH RECOVERS TO VFR WITH LIGHT RAIN. AEX HAS AN IMPULSE PRODUCING IFR TSTMS WHICH SHOULD BE IMPROVING TO VFR SHORTLY AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER DAYBREAK, ADDITIONAL IFR TSTMS AT AEX WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE. SWEENEY PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014/ SYNOPSIS... A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FOUND JUST OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. ITS ASSOCIATED WARM (OR CARIBBEAN) CONVEYOR BELT IS FOUND ON THE OUTER WESTERN PERIPHERY OF DOME...THE PRINCIPAL AXIS EXTENDING FROM VERACRUZ THROUGH BEAUMONT. FURTHER UP...A DIFLUENT TROUGH...EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES...EXTENDS FROM OKLAHOMA THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. SEVERAL WESTERLY IMPULSES (OR SHORTWAVES) CONTINUE TO EMANATE OUT OF THE NEW MEXICO ROCKIES...PROPAGATING ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. DISCUSSION... SOUTHERLY IMPULSES (OR SURGES) CONTINUE TO RIDE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED PRINCIPAL AXIS. ITS MESO-CONVECTIVE LIFT) IS PHASING IN WITH PVA LIFT ATTENDING THE WESTERLY SHORTWAVES. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE RESULT...AT PRESENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. IN GENERAL...THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AIR STREAM (ISENTROPIC LIFT) WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NAM GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE ASSOCIATED INCLINED STABLE LAYER SLOPING UPWARD...FROM THE SURFACE MARINE LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...TO AROUND 800 MB ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. CONSEQUENTLY...THE OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACCENTS...TRIGGERED BY THE PHASING IN OF THE TRAVELING SOUTHERLY AND WESTERLY IMPULSES. THE CARIBBEAN FEED WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED. 21 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 73 87 76 87 76 / 70 80 60 60 60 KBPT 73 87 76 87 76 / 60 80 60 70 60 KAEX 71 86 73 87 73 / 60 80 60 60 60 KLFT 75 87 76 88 77 / 80 80 60 60 60 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
349 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... SEASONABLY WARM W/ A TOUCH LESS HUMIDITY...ESP AWAY FM THE CST THIS AFTN. SCT-BKN CU COVERS THE FA. WATCHING ISOLD CNVTN OVR PORTIONS OF HIGHER TERRAIN IN WCNTRL VA...AND INVOF ERN ALBEMARLE SOUND. WILL HAVE SLGT CHC POPS FOR NW AND FAR SE COUNTIES IN FA THROUGH MID EVE. RUC EARLIER TDA SUGGESTED THAT ISOLD PCPN COULD LINGER ACRS CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF FA OVRNGT. THE MDL HAS SINCE LESSENED THAT PROB...THOUGH WON`T RULE OUT ONE OR TWO STRAY SHRAS HANGING ON UNTIL AFT MDNGT. ANOTHER CONCERN IS PSBL DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF LO CLDS AND/OR FG INVOF SE VA/NE NC WHERE DRYING/LWRG OF DEWPTS HAS BEEN LIMITED/NOT TAKEN PLACE SO FAR TDA. OTRW...CLR- PCLDY THROUGH OVRNGT HRS W/ LO TEMPS FM THE M60S TO L70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... LATEST RUN (12Z/26) OF GFS RMNS MOST AGRESSIVE W/ SPREAD OF MOISTURE INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW BEGINNING FRI AND CONTG THROUGH WKND. WILL RMN CAUTIOUS ABOUT RAISING POPS TOO HI AND/OR TOO FAR TO THE E W/ MEAN RIDGE ALOFT SITUATED INVOF ERN CONUS. SFC HI PRES XPCD TO PROTECT THE CST FM ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLD PCPN (ESP THIS WKND). WILL HAVE SOME INCRS (MNLY DIURNAL OR AFTN/EVE HRS) IN POPS ACRS INLAND AREAS (ESP ALG-W OF I 95) HEADING THROUGH SUN. HI TEMPS EACH DAY MNLY FM THE M/80S (WELL) INLAND TO 80 TO 85F CLOSER TO THE CST (LOCALLY U70S RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES. LO TEMPS EACH NGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL HAVE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL TROFING DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON THURSDAY. STILL PLENTY OF QUESTIONS ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FRONT. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH POTENTIALLY BETTER CHANCES LATER IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SCT-BKN CU OVR THE FA THIS AFTN W/ ANY CIGS 4-6KFT. XPCG DISSIPATING CU THIS EVE. ISOLD STMS FM THE MTNS MAY TAKE A RUN AT KRIC THIS EVE...AND AN ISOLD STM MAY DEVELOP INVOF KECG. CLR-PCLDY OVRNGT. LINGERING MOISTURE OVR SE VA/NE NC MAY RESULT IN SCT-BKN ST OR PATCHY FOG LT TNGT/EARLY FRI. ISOLD TO SCT SHRAS/TSTMS PSBL EACH DAY FM FRI THROUGH SUN (ESP FM ABT 18Z TO 04Z). && .MARINE... WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DEVELOP AN EAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY. WINDS REMAIN UNDER SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE SOME HIGHER SEAS ALONG THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE LONGER ONSHORE WIND FETCH. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...JAB AVIATION...JDM MARINE...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
345 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... SEASONABLY WARM W/ A TOUCH LESS HUMIDITY...ESP AWAY FM THE CST THIS AFTN. SCT-BKN CU COVERS THE FA. WATCHING ISOLD CNVTN OVR PORTIONS OF HIGHER TERRAIN IN WCNTRL VA...AND INVOF ERN ALBEMARLE SOUND. WILL HAVE SLGT CHC POPS FOR NW AND FAR SE COUNTIES IN FA THROUGH MID EVE. RUC EARLIER TDA SUGGESTED THAT ISOLD PCPN COULD LINGER ACRS CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF FA OVRNGT. THE MDL HAS SINCE LESSENED THAT PROB...THOUGH WON`T RULE OUT ONE OR TWO STRAY SHRAS HANGING ON UNTIL AFT MDNGT. ANOTHER CONCERN IS PSBL DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF LO CLDS AND/OR FG INVOF SE VA/NE NC WHERE DRYING/LWRG OF DEWPTS HAS BEEN LIMITED/NOT TAKEN PLACE SO FAR TDA. OTRW...CLR- PCLDY THROUGH OVRNGT HRS W/ LO TEMPS FM THE M60S TO L70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... LATEST RUN (12Z/26) OF GFS RMNS MOST AGRESSIVE W/ SPREAD OF MOISTURE INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW BEGINNING FRI AND CONTG THROUGH WKND. WILL RMN CAUTIOUS ABOUT RAISING POPS TOO HI AND/OR TOO FAR TO THE E W/ MEAN RIDGE ALOFT SITUATED INVOF ERN CONUS. SFC HI PRES XPCD TO PROTECT THE CST FM ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLD PCPN (ESP THIS WKND). WILL HAVE SOME INCRS (MNLY DIURNAL OR AFTN/EVE HRS) IN POPS ACRS INLAND AREAS (ESP ALG-W OF I 95) HEADING THROUGH SUN. HI TEMPS EACH DAY MNLY FM THE M/80S (WELL) INLAND TO 80 TO 85F CLOSER TO THE CST (LOCALLY U70S RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES. LO TEMPS EACH NGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL HAVE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL TROFING DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON THURSDAY. STILL PLENTY OF QUESTIONS ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FRONT. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH POTENTIALLY BETTER CHANCES LATER IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SURFACE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT. SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHFIT TO THE NW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE FLOW WILL TURN NW AND SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA ALLOWING CLOUDS TO CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER NE NC...SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KECG THU AFTN. OUTLOOK FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTN. && .MARINE... WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DEVELOP AN EAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY. WINDS REMAIN UNDER SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE SOME HIGHER SEAS ALONG THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE LONGER ONSHORE WIND FETCH. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...JAB AVIATION...DAP MARINE...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1049 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1042 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014 SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA AFFECTING WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. AFTER PRODUCING SOME ISOLD WIND DAMAGE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WI IN NWS LA CROSSE CWA...THESE STORMS LOST PUNCH WHILE MOVING NORTH AWAY FM GREATER MLCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG TO THE SOUTH AND WEST CLOSER TO MAIN SFC WARM FRONT. DECENT AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN STILL OVER THE WEST AS THE SHRA/TSRA ARE BEING DRIVEN BY SHORTWAVE LIFTING OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND ASSOCIATED H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT. HAD REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA OF NEAR A THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE IRONWOOD AREA THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING POCKET OF HIGHER H7-H5 RH OFF RUC/NAM INDICATES SHORTWAVE AND LIFT WILL LIFT TOWARD SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SINCE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE OCCURRING OVR CNTRL WI ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF BETTER FORCING AND THIS IS FORECAST TO LIFT OVER CNTRL CWA...HAVE EXPANDED THE EASTERN EDGE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO DICKINSON AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. 00Z HRRR COMPOSITIVE REFLECTIVITY FORECAST ALSO SHOWING SIMILAR SCENARIO. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD TSRA WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR AS 1-6KM MUCAPE IS STILL A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AND PWATS REMAIN AROUND 175 PCT OF NORMAL. STEADY SOUTH WIND AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DWPNTS AOA 60 DEGREES HAS RESTRICTED TEMP FALL THUS FAR. NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR WHERE THE SOUTH WINDS PROVIDE A BIT OF DOWNSLOPE WARMING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 448 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014 THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THIS AFTERNOON A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO NOTE ARE SHOWING UP ON BOTH WV LOOP AND THE RUC ANALYSIS. THE FIRST WAVE IS PUSHING SLOWLY THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. WHILE THE NEXT ONE OVER SOUTHERN MN IS DIRECTLY BEHIND IT...BUT SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE TRACK OF THE FIRST WAVE. THE FIRST WAVE HAS BEEN TOUCHING OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND A COUPLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN WI AND WESTERN UPPER MI...BUT THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE PRECIP HAS BEEN TO VERY SLOWLY DIMINISHING. HI RES MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAKES SENSE AS MOST OF THE INSTABILITY AND BETTER MOISTURE SOURCE IS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE U.P. WITH ONLY MINOR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE WESTERN U.P. ONCE THE FIRST WAVE PUSHES OUT OF THE U.P. LATE THIS AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP BEFORE THE SECOND WAVE MOVES IN. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. AROUND 00Z/28...THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THE INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST AROUND THAT TIME AND LINGERING THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND WEST HALF...MAINLY NEAR THE WI BORDER OVERNIGHT...DUE LARGELY TO THE INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE FROM RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND DUE TO THE OVERALL INCREASING DEWPOINTS OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT LINGERING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AND OVER FAR WESTERN UPPER MI. THE MAIN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE PROGGED TO INTENSIFY ALLOWING A RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. TO STRENGTHEN AS WELL. THIS WILL HELP THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P. THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY...KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE EAST HALF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP REDUCE ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.P. AS MOISTURE/FORCING INCREASES OVER THOSE AREAS AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 1000-500RH ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER QCONV. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 448 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014 MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE LONGER TERM PERIOD ARE FOCUSED ON THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TS LATE SAT THRU MON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS AS A STRONG SW FLOW BTWN HI PRES OFF THE E COAST AND DEEP LO PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA ADVECTS PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE UPR LKS. TEMPS THRU MON WL BE RUNNING ABV NORMAL BEFORE COOLER AIR RETURNS ON TUE FOLLOWING COLD FROPA ATTENDANT TO SFC/CLOSED LO SHIFTING E INTO ONTARIO. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...UPR MI WL BE SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF MID-LVL TROF AND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG AND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM...HUMID SSW FLOW BTWN THIS LO AND NEARLY STATIONARY HI PRES OFF THE E COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SET THE STAGE FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS MODELS ADVERTISE A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/TS LATE SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE OVER THE WRN CWA CLOSER TO THE CLOSED LOW AND ITS ASSOC FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE ACCOMPANYING DYNAMIC SUPPORT (Q-VECT CONV) MAY NOT BE IN SYNC WITH H85 THETA E ADVECTION. HOWEVER CONSIDERING THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA DID BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE WEST LATE SAT NIGHT AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. SPC HAS THE WRN THIRD OF CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR ON DAY3 (SUNDAY). SINCE THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES RISING AOA 1000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KT BY MIDDAY SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE SVR STORMS IN THE HWO OVER PRIMARILY THE WEST HALF FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD RISE INTO THE 80S AWAY FM THE LK MI COOLING WITH H85 TEMPS FCST ARND 17C. SUN NIGHT...SOME OF THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN CONVECTION ESPECIALLY LATER SUN NIGHT WITH A LACK OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND DRYING/SUBSIDENCE HINTED BY MODEL SNDGS. FOG COULD BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR SUN NIGHT WITH WARM HUMID AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE AND A POSIBLE BREAK IN PCPN. THE LOWEST TEMPS WILL BE MOST LIKELY DOWNWIND OF THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI...WHERE FOG MAY ALSO ADVECT IN OFF THE LK. MON INTO MON NIGHT...AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA DRIFTS INTO NW ONTARIO...MODELS SHOW THAT THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY E ACROSS UPR MI. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH WRN UPR MI IN THE MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE...THEN THE FRONT STALLS TEMPORARILY OVER CENTRAL UPR MI MON AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE PUSHES THE FRONT EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE MON EVENING/EARLY TUE MORNING. MODERATE MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND MOISTENING AHEAD OF THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SHOULD INITIATE MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA OVER CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MON EVENING. DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY/S COLD FROPA AS WELL AS NOCTURNAL COOLING WL RESULT IN DIMINISHING CHCS FOR PCPN LATE MON NIGHT. TUE AND WED... ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WL REMAIN IN PLACE...MOST OF THE EXTENDED MODELS HINT THAT A SERIES OF SHRTWVS MAY ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTING E THRU ONTARIO AND IMPACT THE UPR LKS. IN THE PRESENCE OF LLVL CYCLONIC FLOW OR ESPECIALLY IF TIMED WITH DIURNAL HEATING THESE SHORTWAVES COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLD SHOWERS. MODELS ADVERTISE MUCH COOLER AIR (5-8C OFF 00Z ECMWF) WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE SHORTWAVES SO BLO NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD BE THE RULE TUE INTO THU. THU AND THE 4TH OF JULY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE STRONG SFC RDGG BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FM THE WEST SO HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR DRY FCST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS BY THE 4TH WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND BUT MAY STILL BE SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014 BASED ON RADAR AND SFC OBS...EXPECT SHORT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA TO IMPACT KIWD THIS EVENING. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS EITHER BY VSBY OR CIGS AS HEAVIER RAIN MOVES THROUGH. PROBABLY ENOUGH WIND OVERNIGHT TO PROHIBIT FOG BUT WILL REEVALUATE FOR 06Z TAFS. POSSIBLE THAT REMNANTS OF SHRA/TSRA COULD MAKE IT TOWARD KCMX AROUND MIDNIGHT. JUST WENT WITH VCSH AS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON THE WANE BY THEN...AND KEPT CONDITIONS VFR. KSAW SHOULD BE TOO FAR EAST TO EXPERIENCE ANY SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT. STILL COULD SEE SOME MVFR BR AT KSAW OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND WINDS ARE FM THE SSE. CONFIDENCE STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SINCE THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS AT THE SFC AND AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MINIMAL. NO BIG CHANGES TO TAFS ON SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL CHANCES OF ANY RAIN DURING MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 448 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...LESS THAN 25 KTS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE AREA...YET WIND SPEEDS WILL STILL REMAIN 25 KNOTS OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JLA SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...VOSS AVIATION...JLA MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
743 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 448 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014 THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THIS AFTERNOON A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO NOTE ARE SHOWING UP ON BOTH WV LOOP AND THE RUC ANALYSIS. THE FIRST WAVE IS PUSHING SLOWLY THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. WHILE THE NEXT ONE OVER SOUTHERN MN IS DIRECTLY BEHIND IT...BUT SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE TRACK OF THE FIRST WAVE. THE FIRST WAVE HAS BEEN TOUCHING OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND A COUPLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN WI AND WESTERN UPPER MI...BUT THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE PRECIP HAS BEEN TO VERY SLOWLY DIMINISHING. HI RES MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAKES SENSE AS MOST OF THE INSTABILITY AND BETTER MOISTURE SOURCE IS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE U.P. WITH ONLY MINOR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE WESTERN U.P. ONCE THE FIRST WAVE PUSHES OUT OF THE U.P. LATE THIS AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP BEFORE THE SECOND WAVE MOVES IN. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. AROUND 00Z/28...THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THE INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST AROUND THAT TIME AND LINGERING THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND WEST HALF...MAINLY NEAR THE WI BORDER OVERNIGHT...DUE LARGELY TO THE INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE FROM RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND DUE TO THE OVERALL INCREASING DEWPOINTS OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT LINGERING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AND OVER FAR WESTERN UPPER MI. THE MAIN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE PROGGED TO INTENSIFY ALLOWING A RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. TO STRENGTHEN AS WELL. THIS WILL HELP THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P. THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY...KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE EAST HALF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP REDUCE ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.P. AS MOISTURE/FORCING INCREASES OVER THOSE AREAS AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 1000-500RH ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER QCONV. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 448 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014 MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE LONGER TERM PERIOD ARE FOCUSED ON THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TS LATE SAT THRU MON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS AS A STRONG SW FLOW BTWN HI PRES OFF THE E COAST AND DEEP LO PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA ADVECTS PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE UPR LKS. TEMPS THRU MON WL BE RUNNING ABV NORMAL BEFORE COOLER AIR RETURNS ON TUE FOLLOWING COLD FROPA ATTENDANT TO SFC/CLOSED LO SHIFTING E INTO ONTARIO. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...UPR MI WL BE SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF MID-LVL TROF AND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG AND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM...HUMID SSW FLOW BTWN THIS LO AND NEARLY STATIONARY HI PRES OFF THE E COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SET THE STAGE FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS MODELS ADVERTISE A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/TS LATE SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE OVER THE WRN CWA CLOSER TO THE CLOSED LOW AND ITS ASSOC FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE ACCOMPANYING DYNAMIC SUPPORT (Q-VECT CONV) MAY NOT BE IN SYNC WITH H85 THETA E ADVECTION. HOWEVER CONSIDERING THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA DID BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE WEST LATE SAT NIGHT AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. SPC HAS THE WRN THIRD OF CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR ON DAY3 (SUNDAY). SINCE THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES RISING AOA 1000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KT BY MIDDAY SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE SVR STORMS IN THE HWO OVER PRIMARILY THE WEST HALF FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD RISE INTO THE 80S AWAY FM THE LK MI COOLING WITH H85 TEMPS FCST ARND 17C. SUN NIGHT...SOME OF THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN CONVECTION ESPECIALLY LATER SUN NIGHT WITH A LACK OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND DRYING/SUBSIDENCE HINTED BY MODEL SNDGS. FOG COULD BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR SUN NIGHT WITH WARM HUMID AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE AND A POSIBLE BREAK IN PCPN. THE LOWEST TEMPS WILL BE MOST LIKELY DOWNWIND OF THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI...WHERE FOG MAY ALSO ADVECT IN OFF THE LK. MON INTO MON NIGHT...AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA DRIFTS INTO NW ONTARIO...MODELS SHOW THAT THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY E ACROSS UPR MI. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH WRN UPR MI IN THE MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE...THEN THE FRONT STALLS TEMPORARILY OVER CENTRAL UPR MI MON AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE PUSHES THE FRONT EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE MON EVENING/EARLY TUE MORNING. MODERATE MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND MOISTENING AHEAD OF THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SHOULD INITIATE MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA OVER CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MON EVENING. DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY/S COLD FROPA AS WELL AS NOCTURNAL COOLING WL RESULT IN DIMINISHING CHCS FOR PCPN LATE MON NIGHT. TUE AND WED... ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WL REMAIN IN PLACE...MOST OF THE EXTENDED MODELS HINT THAT A SERIES OF SHRTWVS MAY ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTING E THRU ONTARIO AND IMPACT THE UPR LKS. IN THE PRESENCE OF LLVL CYCLONIC FLOW OR ESPECIALLY IF TIMED WITH DIURNAL HEATING THESE SHORTWAVES COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLD SHOWERS. MODELS ADVERTISE MUCH COOLER AIR (5-8C OFF 00Z ECMWF) WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE SHORTWAVES SO BLO NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD BE THE RULE TUE INTO THU. THU AND THE 4TH OF JULY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE STRONG SFC RDGG BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FM THE WEST SO HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR DRY FCST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS BY THE 4TH WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND BUT MAY STILL BE SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014 BASED ON RADAR AND SFC OBS...EXPECT SHORT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA TO IMPACT KIWD THIS EVENING. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS EITHER BY VSBY OR CIGS AS HEAVIER RAIN MOVES THROUGH. PROBABLY ENOUGH WIND OVERNIGHT TO PROHIBIT FOG BUT WILL REEVALUATE FOR 06Z TAFS. POSSIBLE THAT REMNANTS OF SHRA/TSRA COULD MAKE IT TOWARD KCMX AROUND MIDNIGHT. JUST WENT WITH VCSH AS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON THE WANE BY THEN...AND KEPT CONDITIONS VFR. KSAW SHOULD BE TOO FAR EAST TO EXPERIENCE ANY SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT. STILL COULD SEE SOME MVFR BR AT KSAW OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND WINDS ARE FM THE SSE. CONFIDENCE STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES SINCE THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS AT THE SFC AND AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MINIMAL. NO BIG CHANGES TO TAFS ON SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL CHANCES OF ANY RAIN DURING MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 448 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...LESS THAN 25 KTS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE AREA...YET WIND SPEEDS WILL STILL REMAIN 25 KNOTS OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...VOSS AVIATION...JLA MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
127 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS MID-UPR LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS TO GENERALLY STAY WEST OF THE CWA TODAY. STRATOCU DECK AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS KEPT MIN TEMPS A BIT WARMER (UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S) OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS OVER THE WEST HALF ARE A BIT COOLER (LOWER 40S) UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH KENTON EVEN REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S. TODAY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE FCST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG WITH DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW STRATOCU DECK TO ERODE OVER EAST HALF BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO GENERALLY REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WITH COOLER 60S READINGS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES A BIT HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING/S READINGS DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW OF THE TYPICAL INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL COLD SPOTS COULD REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE LOWER 50S MIN TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR WEST NEAR IRONWOOD...WHERE DOWNSLOPING SRLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATE SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THERE. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 FRI...A TROUGH MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE PLAINS AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN SW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TOWARD UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR MAY SLOW THE PROGRESS OF ANY SHOWERS INTO THE AREA WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO EDGE TOWARD THE WEST BY LATE FRI FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. THE GREATER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BUT IF A WEAK SHRTWV MOVES INTO THE AREA SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE KEWEENAW OR FAR WEST. HOWEVER...ONLY LOW END CHANCE EXPECTED...PER MDLS CONSENSUS. SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AS THE WRN TROUGH EDGES FARTHER TO THE EAST AND STRENGTHENING MOISTURE ADVECTION BOOSTS INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST HALF BUT REMAIN HIGHER TO THE WEST OF UPPER MI. THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHRTWVS BRUSHING THE AREA IN THE SSW FLOW COULD SET OFF A FEW ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF UPPER MI...BUT WITH TIMING/POSITION REMAINING UNCERTAIN JUSTIFYING CONTINUED CHANCE POPS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO DELAY THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE PCPN. SUN INTO MON...EXPECT HIGHER PCPN CHANCES AS MODELS HINT AT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHRTWVS AFFECTING THE AREA AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE NRN LAKES. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AOA 40 KNOTS AND ML/MU CAPE VALUES AOA 1500 J/KG. TUE...LOW LEVEL CYCLCONIC FLOW AND SHRTWVS ON THE SRN SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL KEEP POTENTIAL FOR SCT -SHRA GOING. COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY WED WITH DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES. ONLY ISSUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE THE DIURNAL CU THAT HAS DEVELOPED...MAINLY AFFECTING THE KSAW/KIWD TAF SITES. TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL HELP CREATE A TEMPERATURE INVERSION TONIGHT AS WARM AIR PUSHES IN ALOFT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT...MAINLY OVER THE KCMX/KSAW TAF SITES. KIWD MAY SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG AS HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN...HELPING TO REDUCE THE OVERALL RADIATIONAL COOLING. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO NEARLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CEILINGS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO MIX OUT. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...LESS THAN 25 KTS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE AREA...YET WIND SPEEDS WILL STILL REMAIN 25 KNOTS OR LESS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...KEC MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
759 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS MID-UPR LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS TO GENERALLY STAY WEST OF THE CWA TODAY. STRATOCU DECK AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS KEPT MIN TEMPS A BIT WARMER (UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S) OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS OVER THE WEST HALF ARE A BIT COOLER (LOWER 40S) UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH KENTON EVEN REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S. TODAY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE FCST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG WITH DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW STRATOCU DECK TO ERODE OVER EAST HALF BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO GENERALLY REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WITH COOLER 60S READINGS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES A BIT HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING/S READINGS DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW OF THE TYPICAL INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL COLD SPOTS COULD REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE LOWER 50S MIN TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR WEST NEAR IRONWOOD...WHERE DOWNSLOPING SRLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATE SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THERE. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 FRI...A TROUGH MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE PLAINS AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN SW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TOWARD UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR MAY SLOW THE PROGRESS OF ANY SHOWERS INTO THE AREA WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO EDGE TOWARD THE WEST BY LATE FRI FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. THE GREATER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BUT IF A WEAK SHRTWV MOVES INTO THE AREA SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE KEWEENAW OR FAR WEST. HOWEVER...ONLY LOW END CHANCE EXPECTED...PER MDLS CONSENSUS. SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AS THE WRN TROUGH EDGES FARTHER TO THE EAST AND STRENGTHENING MOISTURE ADVECTION BOOSTS INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST HALF BUT REMAIN HIGHER TO THE WEST OF UPPER MI. THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHRTWVS BRUSHING THE AREA IN THE SSW FLOW COULD SET OFF A FEW ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF UPPER MI...BUT WITH TIMING/POSITION REMAINING UNCERTAIN JUSTIFYING CONTINUED CHANCE POPS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO DELAY THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE PCPN. SUN INTO MON...EXPECT HIGHER PCPN CHANCES AS MODELS HINT AT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHRTWVS AFFECTING THE AREA AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE NRN LAKES. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AOA 40 KNOTS AND ML/MU CAPE VALUES AOA 1500 J/KG. TUE...LOW LEVEL CYCLCONIC FLOW AND SHRTWVS ON THE SRN SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL KEEP POTENTIAL FOR SCT -SHRA GOING. COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY WED WITH DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 757 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 MVFR CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO KIWD AND KSAW BUT EXPECT THESE TO LIFT BY LATE MORNING WITH DIURNAL MIXING AND VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS WITH DIRECTION INFLUENCED BY LAKE BREEZES. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...LESS THAN 25 KTS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE AREA...YET WIND SPEEDS WILL STILL REMAIN 25 KNOTS OR LESS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...VOSS MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
507 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS MID-UPR LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS TO GENERALLY STAY WEST OF THE CWA TODAY. STRATOCU DECK AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS KEPT MIN TEMPS A BIT WARMER (UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S) OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS OVER THE WEST HALF ARE A BIT COOLER (LOWER 40S) UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH KENTON EVEN REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S. TODAY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE FCST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG WITH DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW STRATOCU DECK TO ERODE OVER EAST HALF BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO GENERALLY REACH THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WITH COOLER 60S READINGS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES A BIT HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING/S READINGS DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW OF THE TYPICAL INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL COLD SPOTS COULD REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE LOWER 50S MIN TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR WEST NEAR IRONWOOD...WHERE DOWNSLOPING SRLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATE SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THERE. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 FRI...A TROUGH MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE PLAINS AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN SW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW TOWARD UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR MAY SLOW THE PROGRESS OF ANY SHOWERS INTO THE AREA WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO EDGE TOWARD THE WEST BY LATE FRI FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. THE GREATER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BUT IF A WEAK SHRTWV MOVES INTO THE AREA SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE KEWEENAW OR FAR WEST. HOWEVER...ONLY LOW END CHANCE EXPECTED...PER MDLS CONSENSUS. SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AS THE WRN TROUGH EDGES FARTHER TO THE EAST AND STRENGTHENING MOISTURE ADVECTION BOOSTS INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST HALF BUT REMAIN HIGHER TO THE WEST OF UPPER MI. THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHRTWVS BRUSHING THE AREA IN THE SSW FLOW COULD SET OFF A FEW ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF UPPER MI...BUT WITH TIMING/POSITION REMAINING UNCERTAIN JUSTIFYING CONTINUED CHANCE POPS. OVERALL MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO DELAY THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE PCPN. SUN INTO MON...EXPECT HIGHER PCPN CHANCES AS MODELS HINT AT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHRTWVS AFFECTING THE AREA AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE NRN LAKES. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AOA 40 KNOTS AND ML/MU CAPE VALUES AOA 1500 J/KG. TUE...LOW LEVEL CYCLCONIC FLOW AND SHRTWVS ON THE SRN SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL KEEP POTENTIAL FOR SCT -SHRA GOING. COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY WED WITH DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF ALL THE TAF SITES...BUT THEY DO REMAIN NOT THAT FAR AWAY AT KIWD AND KSAW. EXPECT SCT-BKN LOWER VFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING AT BOTH SITES. MEANWHILE SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AT KCMX. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT KIWD AND KSAW WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS WITH DIRECTION INFLUENCED BY LAKE BREEZES. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...LESS THAN 25 KTS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE AREA...YET WIND SPEEDS WILL STILL REMAIN 25 KNOTS OR LESS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOSS LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...JLA MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
149 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014 CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL CWA BUT ARE HANGING ON ELSEWHERE. FOLLOWED THE RAP AND NAM AS THEY HAVE DECENT HANDLE ON COVERAGE OF CURRENT SKY COVER. EXPECT THE ONLY PLACE TO STAY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WILL BE NORTHWEST CWA. CONTINUED TREND OF LOWER TEMPS THERE. BASED ON PWATS DOWN TO 75 PCT OF NORMAL...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...FAVORED INTERIOR SPOTS OF ONTONAGON/SOUTHERN HOUGHTON/BARAGA COUNTIES AND PERHAPS FAR WESTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY COULD SEE TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S. WITH LIGHT WINDS...EVEN SPOTS ON KEWEENAW COULD DIP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES OR EVEN UPPER 30S. ELSEWHERE THOUGH TWEAKED TEMPS UPWARD SOME BASED ON THE STUBBORN CLOUD COVER...GENERALLY BTWN 2500FT AND 6000 FT PER SFC OBS. COULD SEE TEMPS END UP WELL INTO THE 50S ALONG WI BODER AND MAYBE EVEN IN THE EAST...BUT SINCE THE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR IS CLOSE BY...DID NOT ADJUST THAT HIGH JUST QUITE YET IN CASE SOME CLEARING DEVELOPS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING ACROSS NORTHERN WI AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH HIGHER CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL WI. ADDITIONALLY...CLOUD COVER IS SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE NORTH...WITH NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR SEEING ONLY A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S. THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOTED ON THE WV IMAGERY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING TO EASTERN UPPER MI BY 18Z/25 AS SHOWN BY THE NAM/GEM. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT INCREASED CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER...OVERALL FORCING HAS BEEN FAIRLY WEAK...KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH. FARTHER SOUTH IS ALSO THE LOCATION OF THE GREATER INSTABILITY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA BRINGING THE DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA AND HELP TO ERODE THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE U.P. AND BECOMING ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY 06Z/26. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE GOING TO BE A BIT TRICKY TO FORECAST AS THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURE DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE MAXIMIZED IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS OVERNIGHT. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 70 TO 80 PERCENT OF NORMAL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.P. WHERE...SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS END UP NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. TRIED TO CAPTURE THIS TREND BY COOLING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE OVER THE NORTH HALF WHILE STICKING NEAR GUIDANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. IT WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A COUPLE COLDER SPOTS TO SEE UPPER 30S...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. AGAIN THIS WILL ALL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON OVERALL CLOUD COVER. IN A FEW OF THE LOCATIONS THAT FALL INTO THE 30S IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME PATCHY FROST...HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS ALONG WITH DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 70S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014 SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TONIGHT DESPITE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN FRIDAY AND WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY BUT THINK MODELS ARE A LITTLE QUICK IN BRINGING IN LOW END RAIN CHANCES TO WESTERN AREAS. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND EXPECT SEVERAL DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES TO EJECT OUT AHEAD OF IT IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE CAPPING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND OVERALL LAPSE RATES DO NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AREAS...BY LATE SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES WEST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE TIMING TO ASSESS POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONGER TO SEVERE CONVECTION AS UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS SUNDAY. SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND WILL KEEP A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. COOL UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN LONGER OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE COOLING OFF TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF ALL THE TAF SITES...BUT THEY DO REMAIN NOT THAT FAR AWAY AT KIWD AND KSAW. EXPECT SCT-BKN LOWER VFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING AT BOTH SITES. MEANWHILE SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AT KCMX. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT KIWD AND KSAW WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS WITH DIRECTION INFLUENCED BY LAKE BREEZES. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...LESS THAN 25 KTS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STILL REMAIN 25 KNOTS OR LESS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JLA SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...JLA MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
330 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SFC ANALYSIS PUTS A WMFNT ORIENTED WNW-ESE FROM NW SD TO THE SW CORNER OF MN TO SE IA. THIS FNT WILL SLOWLY LIFT N ACRS THE AREA TNGT INTO TMRW...WITH IT BEING THE LEADING EDGE OF NOT ONLY WARMER AIR BUT ALSO MUCH MORE MOIST AIR. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCRS IN LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS RATHER WEAK...BUT SHIFTING FROM ZONAL TO A MORE SW ORIGINATION...MEANING THAT MORE VIGOROUS MID- AND UPR-LVL SHORTWAVES WILL ARRIVE FROM A DIGGING NEGATIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE ROCKIES THRU TMRW. ALREADY SEEING SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS AS A DISSIPATING CAP HAS ALLOWED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN SWRN MN...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SFC WMFNT. THESE STORMS HAVE VERY LITTLE N-NE MOTION BUT CONTAIN PLENTY OF MOISTURE SO IT IS FEASIBLE TO HAVE PLENTY OF RAINFALL RECEIVED FROM THESE SLOW-MOVING STORMS. THOUGH GENERALLY UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THE STORMS...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH IS POSSIBLE THRU THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE OVERABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY WITH WEAK SHEAR ALOFT SPELLS THE POTENTIAL OF TALLER/STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR MICROBURST-TYPE WINDS THRU THIS EVENING. ONCE THESE STORMS DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...LOW- AND MID-LVL STRATUS WILL DEVELOP. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME LIGHTER SHWRS OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A MODEST MIDLVL SHORTWAVE RIDING NEWD IN THE FLOW...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...THE MAIN CONCERN BECOMES LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER WRN WI WHERE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE CAUGHT UNDER THE NIGHTLY INVERSION. AFTER DAYBREAK...AND THE WMFNT LIFTS N OF THE REGION...WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE S AND BECOME BREEZY AS ENHANCED LOW- AND MID-LVL JETTING BECOMES BETTER MIXED TO THE SFC...MAKING FOR BREEZY/GUSTY CONDS. AS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ON FRI...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW STRAGGLERS IN THE MORNING...THE CWFA WILL BE MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY DEVOID OF PRECIP UNTIL THE ATMOS LOOKS TO RELOAD FOR THE AFTN AND PARTICULARLY FOR THE EVE HRS AS THE CWFA FINDS ITSELF SQUARELY WITHIN A WARM SECTOR OF THE WMFNT WELL TO THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY AND A CDFNT LINGERING OVER THE DAKOTAS. COVERAGE WILL BE BETTER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT STILL SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH ISOLD SEVERE...OWING TO PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES...MUCAPES REACHING 3000 J/KG...AND WEAK BULK SHEAR LEADING TO POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND GUSTS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS ON TAP FOR THIS WEEKEND...WITH HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION POSES THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. COOLER DRIER AIR WILL MOVE FOLLOW THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IDENTIFIED A POWERFUL JET CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH NEARLY SYMMETRIC CYCLONIC/ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE +150KT SPEED MAX. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS LINEAR JET STREAK TOGETHER WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OWING TO THE SHARP CURVATURE BETWEEN THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL THETA_E ADVECTION WITHIN THE 925-850MB LAYER SHOULD SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN. HOWEVER...THE EASTWARD EXTEND OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE LIMITED SINCE THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT IN BOTH THE MEAN WIND...AND LOW LEVEL JET. THE REASON THE LOW LEVEL JET NEVER VEERS OVERNIGHT IS THE AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE UPPER MINNESOTA RIVER AND RED RIVER VALLEYS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT AT THIS TIME A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIP...WITH A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS PICKING UP 2 TO 3 INCHES. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET NEARLY EQUAL AND OPPOSITE TO THE MEAN WIND PROFILE...SO STORMS MAY BE VERY SLOW MOVING. IN ADDITION...FREEZING LEVELS IN EXCESS OF 13KFT AGL TOGETHER WITH PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 2IN RANGE WILL SUPPORT RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2-3IN PER HOUR. FORTUNATELY THERE IS NOT A WELL ESTABLISHED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...SO THE CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE FOCUSED IN ONE PARTICULAR AREA. THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT LOCATION...BUT HOPEFULLY WILL LEND ITSELF TO A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS OPPOSED TO BEING FOCUSED IN ONE PARTICULAR RIVER BASIN. THIS PRECIP WILL LIFT EAST NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE WINTER...THIS WOULD LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP...BUT IN THE SUMMER...THIS DRY SLOT WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY TO BUILD BENEATH 7-8C/KM H700-500 LAPSE RATES...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG IS EXPECTED...AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 40-50KTS IN RESPONSE THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED AS THE PRIMARY MODE OF CONVECTION. THE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ARE FAIRLY LINEAR IN THE LOWEST 1KM...BUT RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE AROUND 100 TO 150M2/S2 OF 1KM SRH. 3KM HODOGRAPHS HAVE 200 TO 300M2/S2 OF SRH. LCLS MAY BE THE WILD CARD FOR TORNADIC POTENTIAL...BUT VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. MEANWHILE...30 TO 40KTS OF 0-3KM WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINEAR COMPLEX CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REGION...BUT A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES COULD SPARK SHOWERS AND NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME WENT WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 TRICKY FCST THIS SET DUE TO CONVECTION UNCERTAINTIES...BOTH IN TERMS OF TIMING AND LOCATION. SHORT TERM MODELS /NAMELY HRRR AND HOPWRF/ INDICATE A CLUSTER OF STORMS TO SHIFT ACRS CENTRAL-ERN MN BUT DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING WI IN THE 21Z-04Z TIME PERIOD THIS EVENING. THOUGH COVERAGE WILL NOT BE MUCH...ANY STORM THAT DOES IMPACT THE TERMINALS WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH TO DROP FLIGHT CATEGORY INTO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR. BEST CHCS FOR SEEING CONVECTION...AND IT WOULD INCLUDE THUNDER...WOULD BE ALL MN TAF SITES...WITH MUCH LESSER CHCS AT THE WI TAF SITES SO HAVE LEFT THOSE DRY. SINCE TIMING IS QUESTIONABLE...HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS FOR LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE. MORE GENERIC SHWRS LOOK LIKELY FOR WRN-CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT BEFORE MORE TRANQUIL CONDS DEVELOP DURG THE DAY TMRW WITH VFR CONDS. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BUT BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK. THE WI TAF SITES MAY WELL AGAIN BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO EARLY MRNG FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS SO HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY...WITH THE CAVEAT THE TIMING COULD BE LONGER. KMSP...HAVE KEPT CONDS AS VFR THROUGHOUT THIS FCST PKG...BUT AM CONCERNED ABOUT LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVE WITH A POTENTIAL CLUSTER OR LINE OF TSTMS THAT MAY MAKE ITS WAY THRU THE MSP AREA. SHORT-TERM MODELS SHOW IT NICELY WHILE THE MORE BROADER- SCALE MODELS DO NOT...AND OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT AREA...BUT THE IMPACTS OF SAID TSTMS WOULD LIKELY BE INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND POSSIBLY IFR. KMPX RADAR ALREADY SHOWING SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER WRN MN AND NRN IA...DRIFTING NEWD... SO TIMING OF 23Z-03Z MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED EARLIER. WILL MONITOR AND AMEND AS NEEDED. GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AND AM NOT XPCTG FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO IMPACT KMSP. OVERNIGHT AND AFTER DAYBREAK...PRECIP CHCS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION OF ANY ADDITIONAL SHWRS AND WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY MIDDAY. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS. SUN...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR. WINDS SSW 10-15 KTS. MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JPC LONG TERM...JRB AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
127 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS DEAL WITH ONSET OF ANY TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY... FOG/STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN WI OVER THE PAST HR OR TWO BASED ON THE LATEST VIS/FOG IMAGERY. LATEST HOPWRF HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SPREAD OF THE LOWER CLDS/FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR EC MN/WC WI WHICH CURRENTLY SEEMS REASONABLE THRU 15Z. ELSEWHERE...ONLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THRU NOON. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SHIFT TO THE SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS SAID BEFORE... MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING AS MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ARND 1000 J/KG BY NOON. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RAP HAS TRENDED WITH DRIER AIR MIXING IN THE LOWEST 1 KM DEVELOPING BY NOON. THIS WILL ALLOW MLCAPE VALUES TO HOLD OR EVEN FALL DURING THE AFTN. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A CAP...SO DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS/TCU/CBS ARE LIKELY. BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS ONLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH/SW OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY. NORTH AND NE OF THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT...ONLY FAIR WX CUMULUS IS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE OR NO CHC OF PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...IT SEEMS THAT ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER AIR SUPPORT/SFC FEATURES OR LLJ. THE BEST CHC/S DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WC/SW MN AS THE THETA-E RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MN/SD/ND BORDER AND THE INCREASE IN THE LLJ OVERNIGHT. TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH 80S LIKELY...ONLY CONCERN IS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BLOCKING FULL ISOLATION. TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE MUCH MORE HUMID WITH DEW PTS RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...SO TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 MUCH OF THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FROM NEAR THE MN/DAKOTA BORDERS WESTWARD ON FRIDAY. A MERIDIONAL FLOW WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD SUPPRESS MUCH ACTIVITY FOR THE DAY A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN AND +25C 925 TEMPS SHOULD FACILITATE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK CAPPING...ALMOST SUSPICIOUSLY WEAK...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY A FEW ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOP DURING THE STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING HUMIDITY OF THE AFTERNOON. BY EVENING...THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND VEER EASTWARD SPREADING THE ACTIVITY FROM THE AFTERNOON OVER THE DAKOTAS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. SOME WANING OF THIS ACTIVITY IS INDICATED BY MOST MODELS...SO KEPT POPS LOW ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. THE TROUGH WILL INCH EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY WITH VERY MOIST PWATS AND THE STRONGEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING IT. PWATS WILL BE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. A DEEP WARM LAYER WITH FREEZING LEVELS OF 13KFT ARE EXPECTED. BUFKIT MBE VELOCITIES LESS THAN 5 KTS ARE TROUBLE FOR NEARLY STATIONARY OR BACK BUILDING THUNDERSTORMS. GFS AND NAM DIFFER A BIT ON MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE NAM HAS A MUCH MORE EFFICIENT AND MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING WHILE THE GFS IS STEEPER IN THE MID LEVELS AND LOOKS MORE CONVECTIVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THE NAM IS CONTAMINATED BY ONGOING PRECIP AND APPEARS MORE EFFICIENT THAN IT SHOULD BE. THEREFORE...SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BUT THE WRITING ON THE WALL IS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL WITHIN THE TROUGH BY AFTERNOON...AND INCHED THE POPS EASTWARD WITH THE TROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EMERGES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND JET EASTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE CYCLONE PARKED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FALLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ATOP A HOT AND HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS /HIGHS 85-90F AND DEW POINTS 65-70F/ WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES DURING PEAK HEATING...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER MINNESOTA AND PERSIST WELL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OVER IOWA AND WISCONSIN. STRENGTHENING 500 MB WINDS WITH SPEED MAXES OF 70-80 KT SUNDAY EVENING AND A LOOPING HODOGRAPH THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BRING SUPERCELLS INITIALLY CAPABLE OF ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING TORNADOES...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY A WIND DAMAGE/LARGE HAIL THREAT AS WINDS BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL DURING THE LATE EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY HAS SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY ACROSS WISCONSIN BEFORE THE DRY SLOT PUSHES IN BY LATE MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE PLEASANT...ALBEIT BREEZY. FOR MIDWEEK...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE BREEZY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN AS THE CORE OF THE COLD MID LEVEL AIR ARRIVES. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS FOR LATE WEEK WITH MODELS SHOWING A WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 TRICKY FCST THIS SET DUE TO CONVECTION UNCERTAINTIES...BOTH IN TERMS OF TIMING AND LOCATION. SHORT TERM MODELS /NAMELY HRRR AND HOPWRF/ INDICATE A CLUSTER OF STORMS TO SHIFT ACRS CENTRAL-ERN MN BUT DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING WI IN THE 21Z-04Z TIME PERIOD THIS EVENING. THOUGH COVERAGE WILL NOT BE MUCH...ANY STORM THAT DOES IMPACT THE TERMINALS WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH TO DROP FLIGHT CATEGORY INTO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR. BEST CHCS FOR SEEING CONVECTION...AND IT WOULD INCLUDE THUNDER...WOULD BE ALL MN TAF SITES...WITH MUCH LESSER CHCS AT THE WI TAF SITES SO HAVE LEFT THOSE DRY. SINCE TIMING IS QUESTIONABLE...HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS FOR LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE. MORE GENERIC SHWRS LOOK LIKELY FOR WRN-CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT BEFORE MORE TRANQUIL CONDS DEVELOP DURG THE DAY TMRW WITH VFR CONDS. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BUT BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK. THE WI TAF SITES MAY WELL AGAIN BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO EARLY MRNG FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS SO HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY...WITH THE CAVEAT THE TIMING COULD BE LONGER. KMSP...HAVE KEPT CONDS AS VFR THROUGHOUT THIS FCST PKG...BUT AM CONCERNED ABOUT LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVE WITH A POTENTIAL CLUSTER OR LINE OF TSTMS THAT MAY MAKE ITS WAY THRU THE MSP AREA. SHORT-TERM MODELS SHOW IT NICELY WHILE THE MORE BROADER- SCALE MODELS DO NOT...AND OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE IN THE 20-30 PERCENT AREA...BUT THE IMPACTS OF SAID TSTMS WOULD LIKELY BE INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND POSSIBLY IFR. KMPX RADAR ALREADY SHOWING SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER WRN MN AND NRN IA...DRIFTING NEWD... SO TIMING OF 23Z-03Z MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED EARLIER. WILL MONITOR AND AMEND AS NEEDED. GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AND AM NOT XPCTG FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO IMPACT KMSP. OVERNIGHT AND AFTER DAYBREAK...PRECIP CHCS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION OF ANY ADDITIONAL SHWRS AND WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY MIDDAY. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS. SUN...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR. WINDS SSW 10-15 KTS. MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JPC SHORT TERM...JLT LONG TERM...BORGHOFF AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
540 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS DEAL WITH ONSET OF ANY TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY... FOG/STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN WI OVER THE PAST HR OR TWO BASED ON THE LATEST VIS/FOG IMAGERY. LATEST HOPWRF HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SPREAD OF THE LOWER CLDS/FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR EC MN/WC WI WHICH CURRENTLY SEEMS REASONABLE THRU 15Z. ELSEWHERE...ONLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THRU NOON. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SHIFT TO THE SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS SAID BEFORE...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING AS MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ARND 1000 J/KG BY NOON. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RAP HAS TRENDED WITH DRIER AIR MIXING IN THE LOWEST 1 KM DEVELOPING BY NOON. THIS WILL ALLOW MLCAPE VALUES TO HOLD OR EVEN FALL DURING THE AFTN. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A CAP...SO DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS/TCU/CBS ARE LIKELY. BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS ONLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH/SW OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY. NORTH AND NE OF THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT...ONLY FAIR WX CUMULUS IS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE OR NO CHC OF PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...IT SEEMS THAT ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER AIR SUPPORT/SFC FEATURES OR LLJ. THE BEST CHC/S DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WC/SW MN AS THE THETA-E RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MN/SD/ND BORDER AND THE INCREASE IN THE LLJ OVERNIGHT. TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH 80S LIKELY...ONLY CONCERN IS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BLOCKING FULL ISOLATION. TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE MUCH MORE HUMID WITH DEW PTS RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...SO TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 MUCH OF THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FROM NEAR THE MN/DAKOTA BORDERS WESTWARD ON FRIDAY. A MERIDIONAL FLOW WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD SUPPRESS MUCH ACTIVITY FOR THE DAY A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN AND +25C 925 TEMPS SHOULD FACILITATE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK CAPPING...ALMOST SUSPICIOUSLY WEAK...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY A FEW ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOP DURING THE STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING HUMIDITY OF THE AFTERNOON. BY EVENING...THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND VEER EASTWARD SPREADING THE ACTIVITY FROM THE AFTERNOON OVER THE DAKOTAS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. SOME WANING OF THIS ACTIVITY IS INDICATED BY MOST MODELS...SO KEPT POPS LOW ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. THE TROUGH WILL INCH EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY WITH VERY MOIST PWATS AND THE STRONGEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING IT. PWATS WILL BE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. A DEEP WARM LAYER WITH FREEZING LEVELS OF 13KFT ARE EXPECTED. BUFKIT MBE VELOCITIES LESS THAN 5 KTS ARE TROUBLE FOR NEARLY STATIONARY OR BACK BUILDING THUNDERSTORMS. GFS AND NAM DIFFER A BIT ON MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE NAM HAS A MUCH MORE EFFICIENT AND MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING WHILE THE GFS IS STEEPER IN THE MID LEVELS AND LOOKS MORE CONVECTIVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THE NAM IS CONTAMINATED BY ONGOING PRECIP AND APPEARS MORE EFFICIENT THAN IT SHOULD BE. THEREFORE...SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BUT THE WRITING ON THE WALL IS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL WITHIN THE TROUGH BY AFTERNOON...AND INCHED THE POPS EASTWARD WITH THE TROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EMERGES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND JET EASTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE CYCLONE PARKED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FALLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ATOP A HOT AND HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS /HIGHS 85-90F AND DEW POINTS 65-70F/ WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES DURING PEAK HEATING...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER MINNESOTA AND PERSIST WELL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OVER IOWA AND WISCONSIN. STRENGTHENING 500 MB WINDS WITH SPEED MAXES OF 70-80 KT SUNDAY EVENING AND A LOOPING HODOGRAPH THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BRING SUPERCELLS INITIALLY CAPABLE OF ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING TORNADOES...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY A WIND DAMAGE/LARGE HAIL THREAT AS WINDS BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL DURING THE LATE EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY HAS SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY ACROSS WISCONSIN BEFORE THE DRY SLOT PUSHES IN BY LATE MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE PLEASANT...ALBEIT BREEZY. FOR MIDWEEK...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE BREEZY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN AS THE CORE OF THE COLD MID LEVEL AIR ARRIVES. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS FOR LATE WEEK WITH MODELS SHOWING A WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 526 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPED ACROSS WC WI PRIOR TO 3 AM WHICH HAS MOVED INTO PORTIONS OF EC MN. THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE FOG/STRATUS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON UNTIL 14-15Z FROM KRNH TO KEAU. IT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO KSTC...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW OTHER THAN SCT008. ELSEWHERE...VFR IS EXPECTED THRU 18Z. THE NEXT CONCERN IS SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL THIS AFTN AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS TRENDS HAVE CONTINUED WITH ONLY -SHRA/VCTS AT KAXN/KRWF AS THESE SITES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY AXIS AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE DECAYING COMPLEX IN THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND INCREASE TO ARND 12-14 KTS AND GUSTY BY AFTN. BETTER POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA OCCUR AFT THIS TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN WC MN. KMSP... FOG/STRATUS ACROSS WC WI IS EXPECTED TO STAY OUT OF THE AIRPORT TERMINAL AREA...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SCT/FEW005 AND SCT012 BY 14Z. 5K CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTN AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. VSCH/VCTS A CONCERN DURING THE AFTN...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON COVERAGE BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL OUTLOOK. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR THE AFTN UPDATES. WINDS WILL BECOME SE BY 14-15Z AND BEGIN TO INCREASE BY NOON. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI AFTN/EVE. MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN TSRA. SSE WINDS 10 KTS. SAT...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS. SUN...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR. WINDS SSW 10-15 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLT LONG TERM...BORGHOFF AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
408 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS DEAL WITH ONSET OF ANY TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY... FOG/STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN WI OVER THE PAST HR OR TWO BASED ON THE LATEST VIS/FOG IMAGERY. LATEST HOPWRF HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SPREAD OF THE LOWER CLDS/FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR EC MN/WC WI WHICH CURRENTLY SEEMS REASONABLE THRU 15Z. ELSEWHERE...ONLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THRU NOON. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SHIFT TO THE SE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS SAID BEFORE...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING AS MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ARND 1000 J/KG BY NOON. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RAP HAS TRENDED WITH DRIER AIR MIXING IN THE LOWEST 1 KM DEVELOPING BY NOON. THIS WILL ALLOW MLCAPE VALUES TO HOLD OR EVEN FALL DURING THE AFTN. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A CAP...SO DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS/TCU/CBS ARE LIKELY. BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS ONLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH/SW OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY. NORTH AND NE OF THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT...ONLY FAIR WX CUMULUS IS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE OR NO CHC OF PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...IT SEEMS THAT ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER AIR SUPPORT/SFC FEATURES OR LLJ. THE BEST CHC/S DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WC/SW MN AS THE THETA-E RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MN/SD/ND BORDER AND THE INCREASE IN THE LLJ OVERNIGHT. TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH 80S LIKELY...ONLY CONCERN IS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BLOCKING FULL ISOLATION. TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE MUCH MORE HUMID WITH DEW PTS RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...SO TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 MUCH OF THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FROM NEAR THE MN/DAKOTA BORDERS WESTWARD ON FRIDAY. A MERIDIONAL FLOW WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD SUPPRESS MUCH ACTIVITY FOR THE DAY A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN AND +25C 925 TEMPS SHOULD FACILITATE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK CAPPING...ALMOST SUSPICIOUSLY WEAK...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY A FEW ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOP DURING THE STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING HUMIDITY OF THE AFTERNOON. BY EVENING...THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN AND VEER EASTWARD SPREADING THE ACTIVITY FROM THE AFTERNOON OVER THE DAKOTAS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. SOME WANING OF THIS ACTIVITY IS INDICATED BY MOST MODELS...SO KEPT POPS LOW ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. THE TROUGH WILL INCH EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY WITH VERY MOIST PWATS AND THE STRONGEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING IT. PWATS WILL BE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. A DEEP WARM LAYER WITH FREEZING LEVELS OF 13KFT ARE EXPECTED. BUFKIT MBE VELOCITIES LESS THAN 5 KTS ARE TROUBLE FOR NEARLY STATIONARY OR BACK BUILDING THUNDERSTORMS. GFS AND NAM DIFFER A BIT ON MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE NAM HAS A MUCH MORE EFFICIENT AND MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING WHILE THE GFS IS STEEPER IN THE MID LEVELS AND LOOKS MORE CONVECTIVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THE NAM IS CONTAMINATED BY ONGOING PRECIP AND APPEARS MORE EFFICIENT THAN IT SHOULD BE. THEREFORE...SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BUT THE WRITING ON THE WALL IS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL WITHIN THE TROUGH BY AFTERNOON...AND INCHED THE POPS EASTWARD WITH THE TROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EMERGES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND JET EASTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE CYCLONE PARKED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FALLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ATOP A HOT AND HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS /HIGHS 85-90F AND DEW POINTS 65-70F/ WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES DURING PEAK HEATING...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER MINNESOTA AND PERSIST WELL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OVER IOWA AND WISCONSIN. STRENGTHENING 500 MB WINDS WITH SPEED MAXES OF 70-80 KT SUNDAY EVENING AND A LOOPING HODOGRAPH THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BRING SUPERCELLS INITIALLY CAPABLE OF ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING TORNADOES...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY A WIND DAMAGE/LARGE HAIL THREAT AS WINDS BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL DURING THE LATE EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY HAS SEEN SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY ACROSS WISCONSIN BEFORE THE DRY SLOT PUSHES IN BY LATE MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE PLEASANT...ALBEIT BREEZY. FOR MIDWEEK...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE BREEZY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN AS THE CORE OF THE COLD MID LEVEL AIR ARRIVES. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS FOR LATE WEEK WITH MODELS SHOWING A WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014 THE FIRST CONCERN THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS WHETHER FOG/STRATUS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER AND ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS. STRATUS CLOUDS ARE STILL LINGERING OVER CENTRAL MN NEAR KSTC. WHILE THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD GRADUAL SHRINKING OF THIS DECK THIS EVE...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RE-EXPANSION AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT KSTC TO SEE PROLONGED MVFR CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE FOG THREAT EXTENDING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. EXPECT KMSP TO BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE FOG AREA...WITH KRNH AND KEAU MORE IN THE HEART OF THE LOWER VSBYS. HAVE INCLUDED LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT WI SITES...BUT KEPT KMSP VFR AT THIS POINT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT THERE OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT CONCERN AFTER THE FOG POTENTIAL IS SURROUNDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/TS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH GRADUAL EXPANSION TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY EVE. DUE TO RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION...HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF VICINITY SHOWERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KRWF IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH. WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY ON THURSDAY. KMSP... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOA 7 KTS OVERNIGHT...SO KEPT THE BR VSBYS AT 6SM. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF WAA SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE AFTER 00Z FRIDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED OF SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE AREA. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...CHANCE MVFR SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY EARLY AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS. SAT...CHANCE MVFR SHRA/TSRA...POSSIBLE IFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS. SUN...MVFR SHRA/TSRA LIKELY...POSSIBLE IFR. WINDS SSW 10-15 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLT LONG TERM...BORGHOFF AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
338 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 338 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 Quite a lot to talk about in the short term as several features of interest will impact the Central Plains/Lwr Missouri Rvr Vly through the weekend. The first of these is currently on the doorstep so to speak with a slow moving MCV now positioned over east-central Kansas. In reality...this feature has been quite impressive in that this system has maintained itself through much of the day with regional radars now showing a weak leading line of convection stretched from near Emporia south to the Kansas/Oklahoma state line. Recent trends over the past hour or so have indicated the feature is beginning to decay...however will maintain chc pops across the far western zones through the remainder of the afternoon. Further east...very little activity expected through the remainder of the afternoon however the HRRR continues to advertise some weak "pulsy" type convection this afternoon and thus will maintain an iso mention for areas primarly east of the route 65 corridor. Heading into tonight...numerous near term models to include the HRRR and Rapid-Refresh suggest convection now firing over southeastern Nebraska will gradually develop into an MCS before diving southeast towards our area. As a result...have kept the highest pops over the northern third of the CWA...with mainly an iso mention south of the I-70 corridor. As was highlighted earlier today...limited to no severe wx expected based on very poor wind fields aloft. Of greater concern will be slow storm movement and possible heavy rainers with any storms that do develop. PWAT values still remain high this afternoon as verified on latest Blended TPW and percent of normal satellite products. Overnight lows should fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s for most locations. Overnight convection should begin skirting off to the east on Friday as main mid-level vort/MCV slowly tracks east with time. As a result...have advertised an improving trend through the afternoon from west to east as region becomes enveloped in increasing subsidence behind departing feature. Another warm one expected with highs likely climbing into the middle to upper 80s. Things begin to heat up going into the weekend as large longwave trough ejects east from the central Rockies. As this occurs...all short term model guidance in reasonably good agreement that overall trough orientation will take on a negative tilt...with pressure falls immediately east of the Front Range resulting in pronounced moisture and thermal advection north into the central Plains/Lwr Missouri Rvr Vly. That said...upper winds also forecast to increase as a mid-level speed max of roughly 45-50 kts rotates into the area during the afternoon. This combined with a low-level jet of nearly equal magnitude and a moderately unstable airmass should allow for favorable conditions for developing convection by Saturday afternoon. One thing of particular interest this afternoon is the model/s suggesting of very steep mid-level lapse rates nosing into our area as well- established EML plume propagates east off the southern Rockies/Mexican Plateau. One caveat potentially going against robust development will be the degree of destabalization as overnight convection across the central High Plains may result in a decent CI canopy aloft. Late afternoon activity could easily continue into the overnight period as bulk shear vectors take on a more "along- parallel" trajectory which could favor a gradual transition to a linear based system. In any event...something to definately keep an eye on as the event nears. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 338 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 Subsidence behind Saturday night`s shortwave should keep most of Sunday dry aside from some potential lingering precipitation across central Missouri early in the day. However, a secondary weak shortwave rounding the base of a large upper trough to the north could bring another round of storms into Iowa and northern Missouri Sunday night. This activity should develop ahead of a weak front which will drop into eastern Nebraska Sunday night and slowly sag south of the I-70 corridor through Tuesday. This will bring additional chances for thunderstorms to much of the region Monday and Monday night before the cold front moves south of the forecast area by Tuesday. Ahead of the front, a warm and humid airmass Sunday and Monday could send heat index values into the upper 90s to near 100, and also provide quite a bit of instability for a few potentially strong storms. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1229 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 VFR conditions expected through the majority of the fcst cycle. A complex of thunderstorms currently over central Kansas will continue to slide east this afternoon. As this occurs...scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across eastern Kansas and western Missouri during the afternoon. For now...have elected to maintain a VCTS mention at all sites beginning at 20z. As always...if activity moves over any fcst terminals...brief restrictions to MVFR or IFR will be possible. Beyond this...models suggest additional showers and storms will move into the area after sunset as convection across central and eastern Nebraska dives southeast into the area. For now...the most likely terminal to have any impacts is STJ and a VCTS mention will be maintained through the overnight period. SSE winds between 10-15 kts will weaken to 5-10 kts overnight before again increasing after 14z. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...32 LONG TERM...Hawblitzel AVIATION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
330 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 329 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 In the very near term, the main focus will be on precipitation chances this morning with a cluster of thunderstorms currently heading east across north central KS, and very isolated storms that have developed across our far northern CWA. The KS storms have moved off the LLJ and have shown some signs of weakening; however, some isentropic lift has kept storms from diminishing entirely as they build east and southeast. These storms could brush the northwestern edge of the CWA around 12z, but should be much weaker at that point and are not expected to survive into the mid morning hours. The isolated storms which developed across far northern Missouri around midnight have since lifted north of the IA border, and little to no additional development is expected. Have cut back PoPs across all but the northern few tiers of counties through noon, then allowed for a gradual increase across the entirety of the forecast area as the atmosphere becomes gradually uncapped. Any isolated storms that develop this afternoon will shift eastward and begin to weaken this evening, then additional storm development will be possible after midnight as a shortwave trough begins to drop southeastward out of eastern NE. Highs today should be similar to yesterday, with quick rises into the upper 80s during the early afternoon, then a leveling off of temperature rises as diurnal cumulus develops. Thunderstorm chances will continue this weekend and through early next week as an upper trough begins lifting across the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains. A strengthening EML should hold down the isolated afternoon storm development chances; however, an eastward shift of the nocturnal LLJ and slightly stronger forcing from shortwave troughs riding up the upper trough will support more widespread thunderstorms, especially at night. After the trough passes to our north on Tuesday or Wednesday, a surface boundary will likely linger somewhere in the vicinity of the CWA, supporting continued thunderstorm chances near and south of the front. Highs will be mainly in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees and lows will likely linger in the lower 70s most nights, but exact high/low temperatures will depend on precipitation and the eventual boundary position next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night) Issued at 1159 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014 Widely scattered elevated convection expected across northwest MO overnight as a weak mid level trough drifts through eastern NE. Satellite imagery shows widely scattered mid level instability clouds from east central KS across the northwest third of MO. Radar shows isolated convection popping up. Latest HRRR as well as 00z NAM and GFS suggest widely scattered convection will evolve across southeast NE/southern IA/northwest MO. Given current trends will mention VCTS at KSTJ but leave out of Kansas City. Low confidence activity will last past mid Thursday morning. Models have done poorly, i.e over-forecasting convection, lately in this uncapped/low shear environment with no boundaries to work with. While overall confidence remains low on timing/location of convection on Thursday will lean towards afternoon time-frame for isolated convection which could pop-up just about anywhere. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Laflin AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1213 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014 .UPDATE... Issued at 957 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014 Continued to pare away overnight PoPs as overall confidence is low on convection forming or moving into the region. Think best chance will be over northwest MO. Latest RUC/HRRR and NAM drift a h7 vorticity lobe east into eastern NE and generate isolated to scattered convection, but not overly optimistic it`ll get into the CWA. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014 Main forecast issue for tonight is whether thunderstorms can develop in a weakly unstable and weakly capped airmass. Congested cumulus field can be seen developing along an ill-defined boundary from near Jefferson City into northern parts of KC and into far northwest MO. This is the most likely corridor for showers and storms to develop through the early evening, but overall forcing is very weak and convection may struggle to develop at all. May see a slight boost in lift as a subtle wave tracks out of central KS early this evening, but overall expect most areas to remain dry overnight. Any storm that develops will be weak and short-lived with an airmass very unsupportive of any organized storms. Thursday will see a similar story with an uncapped and weakly unstable airmass, but this time may have slightly better lift with a slightly stronger impulse tracking out of the High Plains. Therefore expect a bit better coverage of any convection that develops but still fairly scattered in nature with most areas again remaining dry. The threat for any strong storms will remain low on Thursday. Slightly stronger capping on Friday should limit any scattered thunderstorm activity to central Missouri and points eastward. Better chances for convection will arrive with a strong upper-level trough Saturday and Saturday night. This system has the potential to produce numerous thunderstorms particularly from areas near I-70 northward into Nebraska and Iowa. Shear doesn`t appear supportive for many strong storms but available moisture could support some locally heavy rain. By Sunday and Monday increasing capping should shift the focus for any scattered convection into far northern Missouri and points northward, but increasing rain chances will return across much of the area when a weak front drops into the region Monday night and Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night) Issued at 1159 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014 Widely scattered elevated convection expected across northwest MO overnight as a weak mid level trough drifts through eastern NE. Satellite imagery shows widely scattered mid level instability clouds from east central KS across the northwest third of MO. Radar shows isolated convection popping up. Latest HRRR as well as 00z NAM and GFS suggest widely scattered convection will evolve across southeast NE/southern IA/northwest MO. Given current trends will mention VCTS at KSTJ but leave out of Kansas City. Low confidence activity will last past mid Thursday morning. Models have done poorly, i.e over-forecasting convection, lately in this uncapped/low shear environment with no boundaries to work with. While overall confidence remains low on timing/location of convection on Thursday will lean towards afternoon time-frame for isolated convection which could pop-up just about anywhere. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...MJ DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
400 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 A SLOWLY DEPARTING MCV IS CURRENTLY EXITING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON ITS BACK EDGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS MCV...COULD SEE A BRIEF STRONG STORM...WITH PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 14. AFTER THIS MCV EXITS THE REGION...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WHERE SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND SHIFT EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH GOOD CLEARING TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY HAS BUILT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...WITH 3000-4000 JOULES OF CAPE...AND ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION OF THIS CONVECTION...DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A 50 KT LLJ SETS UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH THIS IN MIND...LIKED THE HRRR SOLUTION THE BEST...AND KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE WEST PRIOR TO 06Z...SPREADING CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THEREAFTER. FOR FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT WITH THE TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHIFTING EASTWARD AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THIS TROUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT THE SHOT FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...ALBEIT BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO BE AFT 00Z FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURE WISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH BOTH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY EXPECTED TO RUN VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO LIE WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE ROUGHLY FIRST 24 HRS. AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD /FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODELS HAVE SHOWN MUCH CHANGE WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HAVING SHIFTED ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS...AND RIDGING OVER THE E/SERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTENDED FROM WRN ND DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TX. MAIN FOCUS IS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OFF TO THE WEST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER LLJ...BUT VARY SOME ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE BETTER CONVERGENCE/LIFT...SO THE PLACEMENT OF ITS QPF VARIES A BIT AS WELL. SAW NO REASON NOT TO KEEP THE LIKELY POPS GOING...BUT DID HOLD BACK THE MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHER POPS UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING MAY SEE A GOOD CHUNK OF THE ACTIVITY STILL WORKING ITS WAY EAST. WITH THE MODELS COMBO OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND THE CWA REMAINS IN THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK. AS WE GET INTO SAT/SAT NIGHT...ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION...AS WILL ANY REMNANT SFC BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND. MODELS HAVE PRECIP LINGERING AROUND A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY...BUT WOULD THINK THERE WOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK AT SOME POINT DURING THE MORNING...WITH INCREASING CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AROUND...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. THINK THAT ACTIVITY SATURDAY EVENING WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA...SO AM KEEPING THE POST 06Z HOURS DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND KEPT THOSE DRY CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BY 12Z SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MORE ZONAL FLOW HAVING SET UP ACROSS THE AREA...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER SASKATCHEWAN. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SFC FRONT SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW/SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO START PUSHING THE BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AS WE GET INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...AND HAVE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA /MAINLY SC NEB/. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...AT THIS POINT SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 80S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH BKN CIGS NEAR OR ABOVE 12KFT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS WE THEN TRANSITION INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO SPREAD EASTWARD...AND INTRODUCED A CHANCE FOR A VCTS TO THE TAFS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. WITH THE AXIS OF THE LLJ EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE SOME WS AT THE TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT OPTED TO KEEP THIS OUT OF THE TAF FOR THE TIME BEING AS SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY ELEVATED ENOUGH TO NEGATE THE NEED. OTHERWISE...CIGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NEAR 5 KFT OR SO...BUT OUTSIDE OF A THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE TERMINALS...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROSSI LONG TERM...ADO AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
314 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS FIRED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANTS FROM AN MCV ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS MOVE INTO THE AREA...COMBINED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES 3000-4000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK...LESS THAN 25 KNOTS...SO THE STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY PULSY UP AND DOWN WITH SMALL HAIL AND 30 TO 50 MPH WINDS REPORTED. RAP MODEL INDICATES THIS WOULD REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...THUS CONTINUED SCATTERED WORDING IN THE FORECAST. SPC ALSO INDICATES A WATCH IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. WEAK UPPER TROUGH EVEN REMAINS IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND COULD SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLE LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO INDUCE VERY SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY...COULD SEE ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON STORMS. BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD COME LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. STORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS IN THE LEE TROUGH AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO CROSS THE ROCKIES. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST...AND MOSTLY BRING A SEVERE RISK TO AREAS WEST OF US...BUT SHOULD MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...THUS HAVE POPS INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...JUST CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA. SATURDAY SHOULD SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS. WIND SHEAR IS STILL MARGINAL... BUT COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THE FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA. COULD SEE AN EVENING CHANCE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY EVENING...BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY...AND EVEN DRY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON... BUT AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...IT SHOULD DRIVE THE FRONT INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WIND SHEAR INCREASES ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD SEE SEVERE STORMS BREAK OUT NORTH OF I80 BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN DEVELOP SOUTHWARD TOWARD I80 THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES IN...THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PUSH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...WHEN NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL BE HIT AND MISS WITH THE TAF SITES. MVFR DECK IS FLOATING AROUND KLNK AND KOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND TCU WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER SUNSET. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEWALD LONG TERM...DEWALD AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1234 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 VW IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING FEATURE OF INTEREST...PAC NW SHORTWAVE...APPROACHING THE COASTLINE WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW PRETTY ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NW TROF WILL BECOME NEG TILT WITH 70M HGT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR INDICATING A LINE OF EWD BOUND CONVECTION OVER THE CNTRL DAKOTAS WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NW KS ALSO PUSHING EAST. ACTIVITY OCCURRING ALONG INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS/BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADV. LATEST HRRR SHOWS LINE OF CONVECTION GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THRU 12Z THIS MORNING. ON THE WHOLE...NAM/GFS/ECM QPF PRODUCTS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR 36HRS AND OUT...MAKING POP PLACEMENT QUITE PROBLEMATIC. HOWEVER...THE HRRR AS WELL AS ARW/NMM SEEM TO HAVE PERFORMED RATHER WELL. GIVEN THAT...WILL FOLLOW THE LATTER FOR HOW MORNING CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE. ALL THREE PROG GRADUAL DISSIPATION THRU 12Z AS IT APPROACHES THE WRN CWA. LATER THIS MORNING...BOTH ARW/NMM SHOW AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NE NEB EXPANDING SWD DURING THE AFTN HOURS...THEN INTO WRN IA THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL PCPN ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE THEN REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS AREA OF FORCING IS MAINTAINED VIA MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT/BNDRY LYR THETA-E CONVG/MODERATE DIFFERENTIAL DIVG. AND WITH GULF REMAINING OPEN...PROLONGED MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD ENSURE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL REMAIN MOISTURE RICH. AS FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL...GFS AND ECM ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT BRUNT OF INSTABILITY/DEEP LYR SHEAR WILL BE FOUND JUST WEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN AS WELL AS FRIDAY AFT. SATURDAY THOUGH LOOKS BETTER FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE ACTIVITY WHEN BUOYANCY/SHEAR SHIFTS EWD TWD THE CWA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 PCPN CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PDS SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING LOOKING PARTICULARLY INTERESTING WRT POSSIBLE SEVERE WX OUTBREAK. BOTH GFS/ECM SHOW 850MB FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR WITH MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR THOUGH MAY BE LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS DEEP CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED IN CNTRL CANADA AT THAT TIME. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT WILL BE HIT AND MISS WITH THE TAF SITES. MVFR DECK IS FLOATING AROUND KLNK AND KOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND TCU WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER SUNSET. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
628 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 VW IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING FEATURE OF INTEREST...PAC NW SHORTWAVE...APPROACHING THE COASTLINE WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW PRETTY ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NW TROF WILL BECOME NEG TILT WITH 70M HGT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR INDICATING A LINE OF EWD BOUND CONVECTION OVER THE CNTRL DAKOTAS WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NW KS ALSO PUSHING EAST. ACTIVITY OCCURRING ALONG INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS/BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADV. LATEST HRRR SHOWS LINE OF CONVECTION GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THRU 12Z THIS MORNING. ON THE WHOLE...NAM/GFS/ECM QPF PRODUCTS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR 36HRS AND OUT...MAKING POP PLACEMENT QUITE PROBLEMATIC. HOWEVER...THE HRRR AS WELL AS ARW/NMM SEEM TO HAVE PERFORMED RATHER WELL. GIVEN THAT...WILL FOLLOW THE LATTER FOR HOW MORNING CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE. ALL THREE PROG GRADUAL DISSIPATION THRU 12Z AS IT APPROACHES THE WRN CWA. LATER THIS MORNING...BOTH ARW/NMM SHOW AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NE NEB EXPANDING SWD DURING THE AFTN HOURS...THEN INTO WRN IA THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL PCPN ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE THEN REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS AREA OF FORCING IS MAINTAINED VIA MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT/BNDRY LYR THETA-E CONVG/MODERATE DIFFERENTIAL DIVG. AND WITH GULF REMAINING OPEN...PROLONGED MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD ENSURE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL REMAIN MOISTURE RICH. AS FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL...GFS AND ECM ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT BRUNT OF INSTABILITY/DEEP LYR SHEAR WILL BE FOUND JUST WEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN AS WELL AS FRIDAY AFT. SATURDAY THOUGH LOOKS BETTER FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE ACTIVITY WHEN BUOYANCY/SHEAR SHIFTS EWD TWD THE CWA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 PCPN CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PDS SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING LOOKING PARTICULARLY INTERESTING WRT POSSIBLE SEVERE WX OUTBREAK. BOTH GFS/ECM SHOW 850MB FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR WITH MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR THOUGH MAY BE LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS DEEP CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED IN CNTRL CANADA AT THAT TIME. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 MOISTURE WILL CONT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY. ALTHOUGH AN ISO SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING YET...A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR ISO TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SHOWERS THIS AFTN AT KOMA/KLNK WHERE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT BETTER. WE SHOULD SEE A NULL IN ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVNG AS AFTN SHOWERS WEAKEN BEFORE MORE ACTIVITY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WE WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS SECOND CHANCE ATTM. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KLNK/KOFK THIS AFTN. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
327 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 VW IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING FEATURE OF INTEREST...PAC NW SHORTWAVE...APPROACHING THE COASTLINE WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW PRETTY ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NW TROF WILL BECOME NEG TILT WITH 70M HGT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR INDICATING A LINE OF EWD BOUND CONVECTION OVER THE CNTRL DAKOTAS WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NW KS ALSO PUSHING EAST. ACTIVITY OCCURRING ALONG INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS/BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADV. LATEST HRRR SHOWS LINE OF CONVECTION GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THRU 12Z THIS MORNING. ON THE WHOLE...NAM/GFS/ECM QPF PRODUCTS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR 36HRS AND OUT...MAKING POP PLACEMENT QUITE PROBLEMATIC. HOWEVER...THE HRRR AS WELL AS ARW/NMM SEEM TO HAVE PERFORMED RATHER WELL. GIVEN THAT...WILL FOLLOW THE LATTER FOR HOW MORNING CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE. ALL THREE PROG GRADUAL DISSIPATION THRU 12Z AS IT APPROACHES THE WRN CWA. LATER THIS MORNING...BOTH ARW/NMM SHOW AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NE NEB EXPANDING SWD DURING THE AFTN HOURS...THEN INTO WRN IA THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL PCPN ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE THEN REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS AREA OF FORCING IS MAINTAINED VIA MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT/BNDRY LYR THETA-E CONVG/MODERATE DIFFERENTIAL DIVG. AND WITH GULF REMAINING OPEN...PROLONGED MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD ENSURE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL REMAIN MOISTURE RICH. AS FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL...GFS AND ECM ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT BRUNT OF INSTABILITY/DEEP LYR SHEAR WILL BE FOUND JUST WEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN AS WELL AS FRIDAY AFT. SATURDAY THOUGH LOOKS BETTER FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE ACTIVITY WHEN BUOYANCY/SHEAR SHIFTS EWD TWD THE CWA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 PCPN CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PDS SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING LOOKING PARTICULARLY INTERESTING WRT POSSIBLE SEVERE WX OUTBREAK. BOTH GFS/ECM SHOW 850MB FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR WITH MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR THOUGH MAY BE LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS DEEP CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO BE SITUATED IN CNTRL CANADA AT THAT TIME. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014 A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS...THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THREE TAFS SITES. IN THE LAST HOUR...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED NEAR LINCOLN. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND COVERAGE...WILL INCLUDE JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS OF VCTS/TSRA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE CHARACTER OF THE LINE OF STORMS WILL CHANGE AND THE LOW LEVEL JET COULD ENHANCE SOME AREAS WHILE OTHER AREAS WEAKEN. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY FOG/HAZE IN THE AM AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEE LONG TERM...DEE AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
935 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PRESS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT USHERING IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LIKELY RESULTING IN THE HOTTEST WEATHER OF 2014 SO FAR. && .UPDATE...EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PLAYING HAVOC ON THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY. NOW YESTERDAYS NAM GUIDANCE LOOKING MUCH BETTER. WE MAY SEE MORE SUN LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT BY THEN DO NOT THINK TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE EXPECTED HIGHS, SO LOWERED THEM ACROSS THE BOARD BY 4-5 DEGREES. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS WELL WHICH WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON MINIMUM RH VALUES AS WELL. LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY FALLING IN TONOPAH. HRRR AND HI RES MODELS MAINTAIN ANY QPF CONFINED TO ESMERALDA, CENTRAL NYE AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES. UPDATED PRODUCTS FOR THE REST OF TODAY ARE AVAILABLE. && .PREV UPDATE...CLOUDS HAVE ENHANCED OFF MOUNT SAN GORGONIO THIS MORNING LIKELY DUE TO WAVE ACTIVITY ALOFT INTO THE MORONGO BASIN AND THIS HAS SPREAD ALL THE WAY EAST INTO SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. UPDATED THE SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 336 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR LATE JUNE WAS SWEEPING ACROSS THE PAC NW EARLY THIS MORNING. ALREADY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH HAVE SPILLED INTO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWFA AND THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH ON SOUTH AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING. SKY GRIDS WILL SHOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD KNOCK DOWN HIGH TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES TODAY FROM WHAT WE SAW ON WEDNESDAY PUTTING READINGS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WHILE MOST OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 400 MB, MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND MEAN LAYER 700-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS SHOW ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO SUPPORT THE GFS, ECMWF AND WRF QPF FOR TODAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER THE PANHANDLE OF LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXISTS THAT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A BELT OF 30-40 KT WINDS AT 700 MB FROM NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY INTO CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND THIS SUPPORTS THE WINDS ADVISORIES CURRENTLY OUT. I DID GO AHEAD AND ADD IN THE MORONGO BASIN AS A PUSH OF WEST WINDS THIS EVENING LOOKS HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN REDUCING VISIBILITY. IT STILL APPEARS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BE ENHANCED IN STRENGTH THIS EVENING OFF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AS THE 4 KM NMM DEVELOPS A CRITICAL LAYER TO THE LEE WHICH WOULD FAVOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS SETTING UP. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD END THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME MORE WEAKLY DEFINED AS IT GETS INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT BUT IT WILL HELP TO SHUT DOWN WINDS TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS. FOR THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY THIS MAY BE ONE OF THOSE EVENTS WHERE THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST MAKES IT ABOUT HALFWAY ACROSS THE VALLEY TONIGHT - DOWN TO CHARLESTON OR SAHARA - THEN FIZZLES OUT. LOCAL GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AND LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW WHAT WE SEE THIS MORNING. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR FRIDAY AND HOLDS INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FURTHER COOLING FOR FRIDAY, HOWEVER, BETTER PERFORMING GUIDANCE BASED ON VERIFICATION CONTINUES TO NOT BE AS AMBITIOUS WITH COOLING TEMPS ON FRIDAY. FOR NOW WE CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY. FURTHER WARMING SHOULD TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY PUSHING HIGHS BACK ABOVE NORMAL. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS FIRMLY OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THE REAL WARMUP WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS 7-9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WOULD PUT LAS VEGAS` TEMPERATURES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 110-112 DEGREES WHICH WOULD ALSO BE FLIRTING WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT WHICH IS CURRENTLY 112 DEGREES. ITS POSSIBLE THAT SOME MOISTURE COULD START WRAPPING AROUND THE HIGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND BRING SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THIS IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE DOOR COULD OPEN FOR SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. && .AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WITH SPEEDS OF 20-30 KTS AND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL FAVOR CONFIGURATION 1. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY TONIGHT BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z FRIDAY, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST MAY MATERIALIZE AT THE AIRPORT COMPLEX. STRONG WINDS ALOFT COULD CREATE MECHANICAL TURBULENCE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 25-35 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD CAUSE AREAS OF BLDU REDUCING VSBY AS WELL AS STRONG CROSSWINDS AT SOME AIRFIELDS AS WELL AS MECHANICAL TURBULENCE ALOFT. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF A KBIH-KCDC LINE THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. CIGS AS LOW AS 6K-8K FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TO 8-16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL FAVOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PCT. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THEN FOR ZONES 101, 102, 463, 464, 465 AND 466. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH WITH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT FOR WINDS AROUND 10000 FEET AVERAGING 25-35 KTS WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. && .VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NVZ463>466. WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NVZ016-018>022. AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ101-102. WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ001-003-036. CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ524. WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ523-525. && $$ UPDATE...PIERCE SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...STACHELSKI LONG TERM...GORELOW FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1136 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE WLY FLOW ALF INCREASING NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER TROF MOVES INTO GREAT BASIN AND SFC LEE TROF DEVELOPS. CENTRAL MT CHAIN WWD AOA SCT150. CENTRAL MT CHAIN EASTWARD SCT-BKN140 ISOLD TSRA G40KT UNTIL AROUND 09Z. LCL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 14Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MIGRATED WESTWARD AGAIN. DRIER SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE BEFORE 17Z...PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EASTWARD. && .PREV DISCUSSION...309 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014... .SYNOPSIS... A DRY AIR MASS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BREEZIER WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. AFTER THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS HIGHS REACH WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE STATE. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. && .DISCUSSION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING AND MOVE EAST WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE DRYLINE. THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NE PLAINS AS THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SO MAINTAINED LOW END CHANCE POPS. BASED ON SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION AND LATEST LAPS READINGS...A FEW SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR NE PLAINS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST. A DRY AIR MASS INDICATED BY THE CIRA BLENDED TPW PERCENT OF NORMAL AHEAD OF AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT MOISTURE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE DRYLINE SETTING UP ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER EACH DAY. MODELS HINT THAT THE DISTURBANCE MAY DIP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SET OFF A FEW STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MTS FRIDAY...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE DRYLINE. STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO BREEZIER CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. A FIRE WX WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL WEST TO EAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE DISTURBANCE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NE PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING AND DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NE PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING. THIS THINKING IS IN LINE WITH THE HIGH RES NAM MODEL THAT PICKS UP ON POTENTIAL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY LACK. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BECOMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL AREA WIDE BY SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...INCREASING MOISTURE AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO THE AREA UNDERNEATH THE HIGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ITS LATE IN THE MODEL RUNS...BUT THIS MAY BE THE FIRST SIGNS OF MONSOON LIKE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. HOPEFULLY THIS TREND HOLDS IN ENSUING MODEL RUNS. && .FIRE WEATHER... CURRENTLY HAVE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE EVENING DIMINISHING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THIS MORNINGS READINGS STAYING ABOVE NORMAL AREA WIDE. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT ACROSS THE EAST. INTO THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA WITH THE SUB TROPICAL HIGH ELONGATED INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DRASTICALLY DECREASE WITH VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY EXPECTED AND ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL MODERATE ACROSS THE WEST AND WILL TREND UP ELSEWHERE. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. WINDS ACROSS THE WEST AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL SEE GUSTS INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AREA WIDE WITH TEENS AND LOW 20S ALONG THE FAR EASTERN BORDER WHERE MOISTURE IS STAYING PUT. SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS AND THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS WITH SOME SUPER HAINES VALUES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT WITH HIGH HAINES VALES AREA WIDE. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH INTENSIFYING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR AREA WIDE WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL LOWS TO START OFF YOUR DAY. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL AS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS WHERE TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS ARE FORECAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ACROSS ALL AREAS...MOST PRONOUNCED AGAIN ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. THE DRYLINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE STATE WITH MOISTURE DECREASING ACROSS THE EAST. MIN RH VALUES WILL AGAIN BE DISMAL WITH TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS AREA WIDE. COMBINATION OF THE WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONES 103 AND 107 THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO SHOWING UP IN ZONES 104 AND 108 BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED THEM IN THE WATCH AT THIS TIME BECAUSE THEY HAVE RECEIVED A LOT OF PRECIPITATION OF LATE. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT AREA WIDE. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL ENSUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MINIMAL CHANCES OF RAIN. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE STATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PULL LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SET UP DURING THIS TIME THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. 21 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-107. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
151 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS COMBINED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE...DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 109 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE...THOUGH I`VE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO POPS AND WX WITH THIS UPDATE TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THAT THE RAIN SHIELD IS NOW PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED IN EASTERN VERMONT...WITH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY SOCKED IN WITH LOW OVERCAST. EARLY LOOK AT THE 00Z NAM WANTS TO BRING CONTINUED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BUT FEEL THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE AS COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST. RAIN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END SHORTLY ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. HOWEVER...I DO NOTE THE APPROACH OF THE MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ACORSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IT`S ACCOMPANIED BY A GOOD RIBBON OF DRY MID- LEVEL AIR...WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD SATURATED LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS OVERNIGHT. IN FACT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP MODEL SHOW UNSATURATED CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ABOVE -8 TO -10C OVERNIGHT...WHICH AT LEAST OPENS THE DOOR FOR DRIZZLE IN AREAS WHERE RAIN HAS ENDED. COULD SEE PATCHY MIST IN SPOTS AS WELL BUT LACK OF ANY BREAKS IN OVERCAST WOULD OFFER AGAINST ANY FOG. I`VE ALSO CUT PRIOR FORECAST QPF DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN HAVING LARGELY ENDED. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...NOT FALLING ALL THAT MUCH GIVEN AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 358 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE MORNING...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE A TREND TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS WITH SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER FLOW REMAINS BROADLY CYCLONIC EARLY FRIDAY PRODUCING SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS BUT AS THE FLOW UPPER RIDGE BUILD FURTHER INTO THE NORTHEAST SKIES WILL TREND CLEAR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH A FEW 40S IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. A RETURN OF MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY IS ALSO EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 333 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY 14C-20C...IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO DAYTIME MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. MIN TEMPS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S-L60S. ON SUNDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WHILE RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO CREST OVER THE REGION. LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DESCEND FROM CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY NGT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING SOME WEAK VORTICITY THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS. THIS VORT MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...RAIN HAS ALL BUT COME TO AN END ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY DRIZZLE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MVFR/VFR CATEGORIES EXCEPT AT KRUT AND KMPV WHERE LIFR/VLIFR CEILINGS EXISTED. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z ALTHOUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST VERMONT LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. AFTER 12Z LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND 00Z...BUT THEY SHOULD NOT IMPACT VISIBILITIES AT ALL. SKIES FINALLY CLEAR AFTER 00Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY...THEN GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN BY 00Z. OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY 12Z FRIDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND SATURATED NEAR SFC CONDITIONS BTWN 06Z-12Z ON FRI AND SATURDAY MORNINGS...EXPECT FOG/BR WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/MPV/SLK. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH A THREAT OF AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING BY MONDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF/LOCONTO SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...EVENSON/TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
109 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS COMBINED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE...DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 109 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE...THOUGH I`VE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO POPS AND WX WITH THIS UPDATE TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH OVERNIGHT. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THAT THE RAIN SHIELD IS NOW PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED IN EASTERN VERMONT...WITH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY SOCKED IN WITH LOW OVERCAST. EARLY LOOK AT THE 00Z NAM WANTS TO BRING CONTINUED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BUT FEEL THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE AS COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST. RAIN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END SHORTLY ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. HOWEVER...I DO NOTE THE APPROACH OF THE MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ACORSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IT`S ACCOMPANIED BY A GOOD RIBBON OF DRY MID- LEVEL AIR...WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD SATURATED LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS OVERNIGHT. IN FACT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP MODEL SHOW UNSATURATED CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ABOVE -8 TO -10C OVERNIGHT...WHICH AT LEAST OPENS THE DOOR FOR DRIZZLE IN AREAS WHERE RAIN HAS ENDED. COULD SEE PATCHY MIST IN SPOTS AS WELL BUT LACK OF ANY BREAKS IN OVERCAST WOULD OFFER AGAINST ANY FOG. I`VE ALSO CUT PRIOR FORECAST QPF DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN HAVING LARGELY ENDED. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...NOT FALLING ALL THAT MUCH GIVEN AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 358 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE MORNING...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE A TREND TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS WITH SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER FLOW REMAINS BROADLY CYCLONIC EARLY FRIDAY PRODUCING SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS BUT AS THE FLOW UPPER RIDGE BUILD FURTHER INTO THE NORTHEAST SKIES WILL TREND CLEAR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH A FEW 40S IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. A RETURN OF MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY IS ALSO EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 333 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY 14C-20C...IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO DAYTIME MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. MIN TEMPS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S-L60S. ON SUNDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WHILE RIDGING ALOFT LOOKS TO CREST OVER THE REGION. LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DESCEND FROM CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY NGT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING SOME WEAK VORTICITY THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS. THIS VORT MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SFC ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT ACRS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A BAND OF POST FRONTAL LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WITH IFR VIS/CIGS ACRS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES. MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR ON NORTHERLY WINDS HAS RESULTED IN VFR CONDITIONS AT PBG/MSS...WHICH SHOULD CONT INTO THURS. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND SATURATED LLVLS...EXPECTING IFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THRU 12Z THURS AT SLK/MPV AND RUT. AT BTV CIGS/VIS WL FLUCTUATE BASED ON PRECIP INTENSITY WITH PERIODS OF IFR VIS/CIGS IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP...TAPERING TO MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VFR VIS AFT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A SLOW IMPROVING TREND IS EXPECTED AT MPV/SLK AFT 12Z THURS WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY THRU 14Z...FOLLOWED VFR FOR ALL SITES BY 16Z. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WL PREVAIL THRU 00Z FRIDAY. OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... SFC HIGH PRES WL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY 12Z FRIDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND SATURATED NEAR SFC CONDITIONS BTWN 06Z-12Z ON FRI AND SATURDAY MORNINGS...EXPECT FOG/BR WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/MPV/SLK. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH A THREAT OF AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING BY MONDAY. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF/LOCONTO SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1048 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WITH HEAVY RAIN. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THIS WEEKEND...CONTINUING UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1045 PM FRIDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN COMPLETELY OVERTURNED AND SURFACE-BASED PARCELS ARE CAPPED TO FURTHER DEEP CONVECTION. ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY CONTINUE TO FUEL NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THROUGH MIDNIGHT THE HIGHEST CHANCE (30-40 PERCENT) OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER LAND IS IN THE MYRTLE BEACH VICINITY AND ALONG THE SANTEE RIVER...BUT THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A 20 POP FORECAST LATE. TEMPERATURES ARE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF FORECAST LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS SO I HAVE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN A LITTLE...WITH 70-74 NOW FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS... THE LOWEST PRESSURES OBSERVED ON ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS ARE ABOUT 70 MILES WEST OF GEORGETOWN SC...29.98 INCHES OR ABOUT 1015 MB. THIS IS AN INTERESTING LITTLE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TOMORROW WHERE IT WILL REMAIN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE HURRICANE CENTER HAS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT FORECAST ON THIS FEATURE WHICH WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CLOSER TO HOME...SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND BROAD SURFACE CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL BAND AND THE SURFACE LOW LED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...MANY OF WHICH CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. RADAR HAS ESTIMATED UP TO 4.8 INCHES OF RAIN NEAR LONGS SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH THE HIGHEST GAUGE-MEASURED TOTALS INCLUDING 2.48 INCHES IN CONWAY SC...2.36 INCHES IN LUMBERTON NC...AND 1.57 INCHES AT BACK ISLAND NC (HOLLY SHELTER SWAMP). THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ANYWHERE THEY CAN FIND BUBBLES OF UNSTABLE AIR THAT HAVEN`T BEEN WORKED OVER YET. UNTAPPED INSTABILITY REMAINS WEST OF FLORENCE AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SANTEE RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE I HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY WANES OVERNIGHT. CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE INCLUDE INITIALIZING 100 PERCENT POPS ALONG AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACTIVITY...AND USING THE HRRR MODEL AS A GUIDE FOR THE SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO I HAVE INCREASED POPS THERE EVEN AS I HAVE LOWERED THEM INLAND. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WHICH REMAIN IN THE 72-75 RANGE...WARMEST AT THE SC BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...REMAINS OF A FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA ALONG WITH LINGERING OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE BETTER OF THE 2 DAYS WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO THE SPECTER OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. WHILE THE CHANCE THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IS LOW IT WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...FURTHER INCREASING MOISTURE AND POTENTIALLY ADDING SOME LOW LEVEL FORCING. BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE...WHILE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT SAT...IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN A DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE SUN...AS WILL THE SOUTHWARD/EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT DUE THE BUILD RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE WEAKER SIDE...LESSENING THE WIND/HAIL THREAT. IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE ON THE ORDER OF 5 MPH AND POSSIBLY LESS. DEEP MOISTURE...SLOW STORM MOTIONS...AND DEEP WARM LAYER(FREEZING LEVEL REMAINS ABOVE 15K FT) MEAN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLOODING. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO...MID TO UPPER 80S AND KEEP LOWS ABOVE CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY. SOME DRIER AIR LOCALLY ON MONDAY COMBINED WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROMOTE ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION CHANCES FOR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MOIST ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY RAMP BACK UP AND CONVECTION CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUES/WED...WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES BECOMING MORE ACTIVE EACH DAY AS HEAT AND MOISTURE DRIVE HIGHER INSTABILITY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE BEHIND THIS...AS IT SERVES MORE AS A DRYING BOUNDARY THAN A TEMPERATURE BOUNDARY. WILL SHOW DECREASED POP FOR LATE WEEK BUT WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...CONVECTION DYING DOWN AS HEATING HAS STOPPED. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME DECENT CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER. OVERNIGHT...SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...HINDERING FOG FORMATION. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY. STORMS COULD POP JUST ABOUT ANY TIME...ALTHOUGH MAIN FOCUS WILL PROBABLY BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE STRONGEST LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG WITH THE RESULTANT BOUNDARY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD POSSIBLY CREATING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...WINDS ARE BACKING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST A LITTLE FASTER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 18Z GFS BUT NOT THE 00Z NAM. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS... LOW PRESSURE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 MILES WEST OF GEORGETOWN SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT... PUSHED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT AND VERY LITTLE REASON TO CALL IT A "FRONT" OTHER THAN WIND DIRECTIONS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH TO MORE EAST OR NORTHEASTERLY. PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON HAS PUSHED RAIN-COOLED AIR OFFSHORE...ESPECIALLY FROM MYRTLE BEACH NORTHWARD. THIS HAS LED TO A MUDDLED WIND PATTERN WHERE INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE HAD MORE INFLUENCE OVER WIND SPEED/DIRECTIONS THAN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW. AS THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR THE EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT...ALTHOUGH WITH WIND SPEEDS ONLY AVERAGING 10 KNOTS. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 1-2 FEET ACROSS THE WATERS. WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN SEA HEIGHTS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND STALLED DISSIPATING FRONT IN THE AREA...WITH WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT SO SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST MONDAY...ALLOWING STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TO BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS CAUSES WINDS TO VEER FROM NE TO SE ON MONDAY...AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS BOTH DAYS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE WITH A VEERING WIND-WAVE AND A CONTINUED SE GROUND SWELL MAKING UP THE SPECTRUM. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1046 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT SOUTH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE FRONT...MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 1040 PM FRI...UPDATE TO CAPTURE PRECIP TRENDS AND TO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. MOST SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE AIRMASS HAS BEEN PRETTY WELL WORKED OVER AND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER SOME SLIGHT REDEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL OBX FROM RODANTHE TO FRISCO ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIP GRADUALLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17...AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE TRENDED POPS IN A SIMILAR FASHION. TEMPS HAVE COOLED TO THE LOW TO MID 70S AND EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... AS OF 131 PM FRI...STRONG SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT FORMED ALONG THE SEABREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT COMBINING WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR SCATTERED STORMS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE...KEEPING THEM SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...COMBINED WITH VARIOUS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...WILL KEEP CHANCE OF ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SLOW MOVEMENT AND HIGH PWS COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE SOUTH WITH THE VICINITY OF FRONT/LOW. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH A STALLED SFC BNDRY TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PARTICULARLY DURING PEAK HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL CLOUDINESS AND AN EAST FLOW SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPS NEAR CLIMO NORMALS SUNDAY...MAINLY UPPER 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. UPPER RIDGE SETTLES TO THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE SEMI-PERMANENT PIEDMONT TROUGH REDEVELOPING BY MIDWEEK. WILL KEEP POPS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AT 20 TO 30 PCT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HIGHEST AFTN AND EVENING WHEN INSTAB PEAKS. LOW LVL THICKNESS RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD..THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS OF 85 TO 90 ON MONDAY RISING INTO THE 90 TO 95 DGR RANGE THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 845 PM FRI...SHOWERS AND TSTMS DIMINISHING ACROSS RTES THIS EVENING...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOL TO SCT SHOWERS OR EVEN A TSTM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING BUT WITH ABUNDANT RAINFALL BRINGING A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT AREAS OF STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING SAT. MOS GUIDANCE...SREF...NARRES AND HRRR INDICATING DESCENT CHANCES OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS DEVELOPING WITH VSBYS MAINLY REMAINING IN THE VFR/MVFR RANGE AND FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE TAFS. BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT EWN WHERE GUIDANCE IS LEAST BULLISH. A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA SAT WITH SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 145 PM FRI...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED SUN- TUE. BRIEF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF REDUCTION TO SUB-VFR IN ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/ AS OF 1045 PM FRI...WINDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS...AROUND 15 KT AT MANY BUOYS. THE RUC MODEL CAPTURES WINDS IN THIS AREA BEST AND HAVE BLENDED WITH IT. LOW PRESSURE OVER COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS. THE LOW WILL VERY GRADUALLY PUSH OFF THE SC COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GENERALLY ELY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT...AROUND 5-15 KT...STRONGEST NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET. WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT NORTHERN WATERS AND 10-15 KT SOUTHERN WATERS SATURDAY AS GRADIENTS TIGHTEN BETWEEN HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE LOW OFF THE SC COAST SEAS AROUND 2 FT THIS EVENING WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY...UP TO 4 FT NRN WATERS...SAT AS ELY FLOW INCREASES. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRES TO THE N AND DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE S WILL LEAD TO MAINLY E WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THRU SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIDES E LOW LVL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SE MON AND SOUTHERLY BY TUE. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 15 KT RANGE MON AND TUE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 4 FEET THRU SUN AND SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FEET MON INTO EARLY TUE. LATER TUE COULD AGAIN SEE SOME 4 FT SEAS OUTER WATERS AS SRLY WINDS INCREASE A BIT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CGG NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...CGG LONG TERM...BTC/RF AVIATION...CGG/SK MARINE...BTC/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
915 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT SOUTH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE FRONT...MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... AS OF 845 PM FRI...MOST SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE AIRMASS HAS BEEN PRETTY WELL WORKED OVER AND WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...HOWEVER SOME SLIGHT REDEVELOPMENT SEEN FROM DARE BOMBING RANGE TO OFF THE CENTRAL OBX JUST SOUTH OF SALVO ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIP GRADUALLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17...AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE TRENDED POPS IN A SIMILAR FASHION. TEMPS HAVE COOLED TO THE LOW TO MID 70S AND EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... AS OF 131 PM FRI...STRONG SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT FORMED ALONG THE SEABREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT COMBINING WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR SCATTERED STORMS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE...KEEPING THEM SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...COMBINED WITH VARIOUS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...WILL KEEP CHANCE OF ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SLOW MOVEMENT AND HIGH PWS COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE SOUTH WITH THE VICINITY OF FRONT/LOW. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH A STALLED SFC BNDRY TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PARTICULARLY DURING PEAK HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL CLOUDINESS AND AN EAST FLOW SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPS NEAR CLIMO NORMALS SUNDAY...MAINLY UPPER 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. UPPER RIDGE SETTLES TO THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE SEMI-PERMANENT PIEDMONT TROUGH REDEVELOPING BY MIDWEEK. WILL KEEP POPS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AT 20 TO 30 PCT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HIGHEST AFTN AND EVENING WHEN INSTAB PEAKS. LOW LVL THICKNESS RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD..THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS OF 85 TO 90 ON MONDAY RISING INTO THE 90 TO 95 DGR RANGE THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 845 PM FRI...SHOWERS AND TSTMS DIMINISHING ACROSS RTES THIS EVENING...THOUGH COULD SEE ISOL TO SCT SHOWERS OR EVEN A TSTM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING BUT WITH ABUNDANT RAINFALL BRINGING A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT AREAS OF STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING SAT. MOS GUIDANCE...SREF...NARRES AND HRRR INDICATING DESCENT CHANCES OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS DEVELOPING WITH VSBYS MAINLY REMAINING IN THE VFR/MVFR RANGE AND FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE TAFS. BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT EWN WHERE GUIDANCE IS LEAST BULLISH. A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA SAT WITH SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 145 PM FRI...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED SUN- TUE. BRIEF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF REDUCTION TO SUB-VFR IN ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/ AS OF 845 PM FRI...LOW PRESSURE OVER COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS. THE LOW WILL VERY GRADUALLY PUSH OFF THE SC COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GENERALLY ELY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS...AROUND 5-10 KT THIS EVENING...INCREASING TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT NORTHERN WATERS AND 10-15 KT SOUTHERN WATERS SATURDAY AS GRADIENTS TIGHTEN BETWEEN HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE LOW OFF THE SC COAST SEAS AROUND 2 FT THIS EVENING WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY...UP TO 4 FT NRN WATERS...SAT AND ELY FLOW INCREASES. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRES TO THE N AND DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE S WILL LEAD TO MAINLY E WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THRU SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIDES E LOW LVL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SE MON AND SOUTHERLY BY TUE. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 15 KT RANGE MON AND TUE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 4 FEET THRU SUN AND SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FEET MON INTO EARLY TUE. LATER TUE COULD AGAIN SEE SOME 4 FT SEAS OUTER WATERS AS SRLY WINDS INCREASE A BIT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CGG NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...CGG LONG TERM...BTC/RF AVIATION...CGG/SK MARINE...BTC/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
716 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WITH HEAVY RAIN. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THIS WEEKEND...CONTINUING UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...THE LOWEST PRESSURES OBSERVED ON ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS ARE ABOUT 70 MILES WEST OF GEORGETOWN SC...29.98 INCHES OR ABOUT 1015 MB. THIS IS AN INTERESTING LITTLE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TOMORROW WHERE IT WILL REMAIN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE HURRICANE CENTER HAS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT FORECAST ON THIS FEATURE WHICH WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CLOSER TO HOME...SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND BROAD SURFACE CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL BAND AND THE SURFACE LOW LED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...MANY OF WHICH CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. RADAR HAS ESTIMATED UP TO 4.8 INCHES OF RAIN NEAR LONGS SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH THE HIGHEST GAUGE-MEASURED TOTALS INCLUDING 2.48 INCHES IN CONWAY SC...2.36 INCHES IN LUMBERTON NC...AND 1.57 INCHES AT BACK ISLAND NC (HOLLY SHELTER SWAMP). THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ANYWHERE THEY CAN FIND BUBBLES OF UNSTABLE AIR THAT HAVEN`T BEEN WORKED OVER YET. UNTAPPED INSTABILITY REMAINS WEST OF FLORENCE AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SANTEE RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE I HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY WANES OVERNIGHT. CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE INCLUDE INITIALIZING 100 PERCENT POPS ALONG AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACTIVITY...AND USING THE HRRR MODEL AS A GUIDE FOR THE SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO I HAVE INCREASED POPS THERE EVEN AS I HAVE LOWERED THEM INLAND. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WHICH REMAIN IN THE 72-75 RANGE...WARMEST AT THE SC BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...REMAINS OF A FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA ALONG WITH LINGERING OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE BETTER OF THE 2 DAYS WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO THE SPECTER OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. WHILE THE CHANCE THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IS LOW IT WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...FURTHER INCREASING MOISTURE AND POTENTIALLY ADDING SOME LOW LEVEL FORCING. BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE...WHILE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT SAT...IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN A DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE SUN...AS WILL THE SOUTHWARD/EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT DUE THE BUILD RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE WEAKER SIDE...LESSENING THE WIND/HAIL THREAT. IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE ON THE ORDER OF 5 MPH AND POSSIBLY LESS. DEEP MOISTURE...SLOW STORM MOTIONS...AND DEEP WARM LAYER(FREEZING LEVEL REMAINS ABOVE 15K FT) MEAN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLOODING. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO...MID TO UPPER 80S AND KEEP LOWS ABOVE CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY. SOME DRIER AIR LOCALLY ON MONDAY COMBINED WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROMOTE ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION CHANCES FOR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MOIST ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY RAMP BACK UP AND CONVECTION CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUES/WED...WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES BECOMING MORE ACTIVE EACH DAY AS HEAT AND MOISTURE DRIVE HIGHER INSTABILITY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE BEHIND THIS...AS IT SERVES MORE AS A DRYING BOUNDARY THAN A TEMPERATURE BOUNDARY. WILL SHOW DECREASED POP FOR LATE WEEK BUT WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 00Z...CONVECTION DYING DOWN AS HEATING HAS STOPPED. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME DECENT CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER. OVERNIGHT...SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...HINDERING FOG FORMATION. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY. STORMS COULD POP JUST ABOUT ANY TIME...ALTHOUGH MAIN FOCUS WILL PROBABLY BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE STRONGEST LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG WITH THE RESULTANT BOUNDARY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD POSSIBLY CREATING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 730 PM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 MILES WEST OF GEORGETOWN SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT... PUSHED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT AND VERY LITTLE REASON TO CALL IT A "FRONT" OTHER THAN WIND DIRECTIONS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH TO MORE EAST OR NORTHEASTERLY. PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON HAS PUSHED RAIN-COOLED AIR OFFSHORE...ESPECIALLY FROM MYRTLE BEACH NORTHWARD. THIS HAS LED TO A MUDDLED WIND PATTERN WHERE INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE HAD MORE INFLUENCE OVER WIND SPEED/DIRECTIONS THAN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW. AS THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR THE EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT...ALTHOUGH WITH WIND SPEEDS ONLY AVERAGING 10 KNOTS. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 1-2 FEET ACROSS THE WATERS. WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN SEA HEIGHTS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND STALLED DISSIPATING FRONT IN THE AREA...WITH WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT SO SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST MONDAY...ALLOWING STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TO BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS CAUSES WINDS TO VEER FROM NE TO SE ON MONDAY...AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS BOTH DAYS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE WITH A VEERING WIND-WAVE AND A CONTINUED SE GROUND SWELL MAKING UP THE SPECTRUM. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
953 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 MAIN ISSUE FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST. ALSO DROPPED THE MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT...AND UPDATED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ALONG A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS HAS ENDED THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH QUARTER SIZED HAIL OR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. UPDATE ISSUED AT 716 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS EVENING WAS TO CLEAR UP POP FORECAST. AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAS PRETTY MUCH CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA. BUT DID KEEP SOME SMALL POPS IN THE EAST AND CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. FOCUS IS NOW IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THIS AREA THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD IT INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION SEVERAL FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED RECENTLY IN THE MOTT TO HETTINGER AND LEMON SD AREA. LCL HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW IN THIS AREA WITH A NON SUPERCELL TORNADO PARA MATER MAXIMA IN THIS AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 MCV OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE HAS SPARKED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR PROGS THIS MCV AND ATTENDANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS FORECAST...SO KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE EASTERN CWA. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A WET PICTURE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH PIVOTS OVER THE DAKOTAS. NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING FROM THE FORECAST EITHER. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE SEVERE WORDING IN THE ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE...AND CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS DECIDE IF THE WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME BASED ON HOW THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EVOLVES. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER ALBERTA/BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES/DEVELOPS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WHERE IT REMAINS THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS HUDSON BAY ON MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL KEEP A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY...AND HENCE A CHANCE OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW IN EXITING THE REGION...A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BENEATH THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND BRING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE RIDGE FLATTENS BY FRIDAY AND CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WITH FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW. A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS 65 TO 75 MONDAY...WARMING TO 75 TO 85 BY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FROM KDIK TO KBIS LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ SATURDAY FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-018>023-025-033>037-040>048-050-051. && $$ UPDATE...TWH SHORT TERM...TM LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
944 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WX FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE FIRST UPPER WAVE IS SLOWLY PROPAGATING NORTH/NORTHEAST...AND SHOULD BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN FA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS (ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED TIMING OF THESE SHOWERS). OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE NIGHT STILL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH INCREASING ACTIVITY AFTER SUNRISE. SEE 728 PM UPDATE CONCERNING FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 728 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH SATURDAY...AND PRECIP COVERAGE TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGES. THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT ACTIVITY CAN BE SEEN IN THE RADAR IMAGERY...JUST ENTERING EXTREME SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION BY 06Z...AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED BREAK IN ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED A TRACE TO AN INCH OF RAIN...WITH ISOLATED AREAS UP TO 2 INCHES...AND VERY LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO 3 INCHES. ALTHOUGH FLASH FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...STILL CONCERNED WITH THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE STRONGER...AND SHOULD BE INTERACTING WITH A SIMILAR AIRMASS (HIGH PWATS...LOW INSTABILITY). SO...THIS FIRST WAVE OF ACTIVITY HAS SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING ON SATURDAY. THE AREA OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...BUT STILL DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION. THE HRRR IS DOING A GOOD JOG IN THE NEAR TERM...AND THE NAM/GFS ARE NOT TOO BAD WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES INTO SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY...AND WE WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE/MCV THAT WILL LIFT NORTH AND AFFECT THE DVL BASIN AND THE VALLEY. EXPECT VIGOROUS CONVECTION WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN...SOME SMALL HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME WIND GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE...PWATS TO 1.75 INCHES LATER TONIGHT AND MUCAPE TO 3000 J/KG. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT AN EVEN INTO SAT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DEEP LAYERED SHEAR ONLY AROUND 25-30KT. GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND 70 DEWPOINTS...WE CAN NEVER TOTALLY RULE OUT SEVERE STORMS. WE WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN THE GRIDS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO THE MN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AND SAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ANYWHERE A THUNDERSTORM CAN DEVELOP IN THIS TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER PERHAPS A BREAK DURING THE MORNING WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS...SINCE THE LLJ IS NOT THAT STRONG AROUND 30-35KT OR SO. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN WITH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR FAIRLY WEAK BUT A BIT STRONGER THAN TODAY...SO ONCE AGAIN A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH HAIL/WIND. THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS THAT COULD RECEIVE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES...PERHAPS MORE WHERE STORMS PERSIST FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD END. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 ON SUNDAY...A STRONG LOW WILL WRAP UP IN CANADA WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAINLY IN THE NORTH. FOR MONDAY...IT SHOULD BE COOL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM. THERE WILL STILL BE HIGH PWATS OVER 1.25 INCHES IN THE NORTH...SO MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. LARGE UPPER LOW WILL DEPART THE AREA TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A LINGERING LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS. THEN DRIER AIR WORKS IN FOR WED-THU BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES BRINGING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF HAVING RUN TO RUN ISSUES IN REGARDS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK OR A FLATTER ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR A SHORT WAVE WILL IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA/NRN MN LATE WEEK BUT UNLIKE THE PAST TWO SYSTEMS MAY NOT LINGER AROUND AS LONG AS IT MOVES EAST FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY. LATE WEEK MAY TURN QUITE WARM AND VERY HUMID. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 728 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY 06Z...AND MENTIONED IN THE FORECASTS WHERE PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST. ANTICIPATE SOME EARLY MORNING MVFR CIGS (AS IN THE PAST FEW MORNINGS)...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 CANCELLED THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE S BUFFALO RIVER AT SABIN WHERE RIVER LEVELS DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND FOR THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK...WHERE STAGES PEAKED JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE RED RIVER AT FARGO CONTINUES TO DECLINE...WHILE RIVER STAGES ARE HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY FROM EAST GRAND FORKS TO DRAYTON. OSLO IS THE ONLY FORECAST POINT THAT REMAINS IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND WILL DETERMINE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL POSE THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THUS...FLOODING CONCERNS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001>004-007- 029. && $$ UPDATE...TG SHORT TERM...DK LONG TERM...DK/RIDDLE AVIATION...TG HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
728 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 728 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH SATURDAY...AND PRECIP COVERAGE TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGES. THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT ACTIVITY CAN BE SEEN IN THE RADAR IMAGERY...JUST ENTERING EXTREME SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION BY 06Z...AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED BREAK IN ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED A TRACE TO AN INCH OF RAIN...WITH ISOLATED AREAS UP TO 2 INCHES...AND VERY LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO 3 INCHES. ALTHOUGH FLASH FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...STILL CONCERNED WITH THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE STRONGER...AND SHOULD BE INTERACTING WITH A SIMILAR AIRMASS (HIGH PWATS...LOW INSTABILITY). SO...THIS FIRST WAVE OF ACTIVITY HAS SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING ON SATURDAY. THE AREA OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...BUT STILL DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION. THE HRRR IS DOING A GOOD JOG IN THE NEAR TERM...AND THE NAM/GFS ARE NOT TOO BAD WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES INTO SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY...AND WE WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE/MCV THAT WILL LIFT NORTH AND AFFECT THE DVL BASIN AND THE VALLEY. EXPECT VIGOROUS CONVECTION WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN...SOME SMALL HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME WIND GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE...PWATS TO 1.75 INCHES LATER TONIGHT AND MUCAPE TO 3000 J/KG. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT AN EVEN INTO SAT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DEEP LAYERED SHEAR ONLY AROUND 25-30KT. GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND 70 DEWPOINTS...WE CAN NEVER TOTALLY RULE OUT SEVERE STORMS. WE WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN THE GRIDS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO THE MN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AND SAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ANYWHERE A THUNDERSTORM CAN DEVELOP IN THIS TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER PERHAPS A BREAK DURING THE MORNING WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS...SINCE THE LLJ IS NOT THAT STRONG AROUND 30-35KT OR SO. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN WITH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR FAIRLY WEAK BUT A BIT STRONGER THAN TODAY...SO ONCE AGAIN A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH HAIL/WIND. THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS THAT COULD RECEIVE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES...PERHAPS MORE WHERE STORMS PERSIST FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD END. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 ON SUNDAY...A STRONG LOW WILL WRAP UP IN CANADA WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAINLY IN THE NORTH. FOR MONDAY...IT SHOULD BE COOL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM. THERE WILL STILL BE HIGH PWATS OVER 1.25 INCHES IN THE NORTH...SO MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. LARGE UPPER LOW WILL DEPART THE AREA TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A LINGERING LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS. THEN DRIER AIR WORKS IN FOR WED-THU BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES BRINGING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF HAVING RUN TO RUN ISSUES IN REGARDS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK OR A FLATTER ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR A SHORT WAVE WILL IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA/NRN MN LATE WEEK BUT UNLIKE THE PAST TWO SYSTEMS MAY NOT LINGER AROUND AS LONG AS IT MOVES EAST FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY. LATE WEEK MAY TURN QUITE WARM AND VERY HUMID. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 728 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY 06Z...AND MENTIONED IN THE FORECASTS WHERE PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST. ANTICIPATE SOME EARLY MORNING MVFR CIGS (AS IN THE PAST FEW MORNINGS)...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 CANCELLED THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE S BUFFALO RIVER AT SABIN WHERE RIVER LEVELS DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND FOR THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK...WHERE STAGES PEAKED JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE RED RIVER AT FARGO CONTINUES TO DECLINE...WHILE RIVER STAGES ARE HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY FROM EAST GRAND FORKS TO DRAYTON. OSLO IS THE ONLY FORECAST POINT THAT REMAINS IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND WILL DETERMINE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL POSE THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THUS...FLOODING CONCERNS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001>004-007- 029. && $$ UPDATE...TG SHORT TERM...DK LONG TERM...DK/RIDDLE AVIATION...TG HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
716 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 716 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS EVENING WAS TO CLEAR UP POP FORECAST. AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAS PRETTY MUCH CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA. BUT DID KEEP SOME SMALL POPS IN THE EAST AND CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. FOCUS IS NOW IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THIS AREA THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD IT INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION SEVERAL FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED RECENTLY IN THE MOTT TO HETTINGER AND LEMON SD AREA. LCL HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW IN THIS AREA WITH A NON SUPERCELL TORNADO PARA MATER MAXIMA IN THIS AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 MCV OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE HAS SPARKED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR PROGS THIS MCV AND ATTENDANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS FORECAST...SO KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE EASTERN CWA. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A WET PICTURE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH PIVOTS OVER THE DAKOTAS. NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING FROM THE FORECAST EITHER. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE SEVERE WORDING IN THE ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE...AND CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS DECIDE IF THE WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME BASED ON HOW THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EVOLVES. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER ALBERTA/BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES/DEVELOPS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WHERE IT REMAINS THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS HUDSON BAY ON MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL KEEP A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY...AND HENCE A CHANCE OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW IN EXITING THE REGION...A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BENEATH THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND BRING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE RIDGE FLATTENS BY FRIDAY AND CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WITH FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW. A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS 65 TO 75 MONDAY...WARMING TO 75 TO 85 BY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 716 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...THEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE FROM KDIK TO KBIS LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ SATURDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051. && $$ UPDATE...TWH SHORT TERM...TM LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
104 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 AREA OF SHOWERS THAT PRODUCED LOCALLY 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN LISBON AREA MOVING NORTHEAST AND AS ANTICIPATED WEAKENED SLOWLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS IN THE RRV AND ERN ND THRU THIS EVE AND WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS COULD VERY WELL SEE SOME SCATTERED RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTN-EVE SO WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE THE FORECAST HEADACHE...PARTICULARLY TIMING AND STRENGTH. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE PLAINS AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ONTO THE WEST COAST. ONE LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN SETTING OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL ND THAT ARE JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CWA AS 850MB JET OF AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS MOVES EAST...THINK THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION...SO FOLLOWED TREND OF THAT MODEL WITH HIGH POPS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CWA DURING THE MORNING. WITH A WARMER AIR MASS MOVING IN...THINK WE WILL STILL BE ABLE TO GET INTO THE 70S EVEN WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP. CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH DEBRIS FROM THIS MORNING AFFECTS DESTABILIZATION. THE NAM HAS 3000 J/KG OF CAPE BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS UNDERDONE ON THE CURRENT PRECIP WE HAVE OVER OUR SOUTH. MORE REASONABLE IS THE RAP WHICH BRINGS SOME 1000-1500 J/KG INTO OUR SOUTHWEST FOR THIS EVENING. THINK THAT SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY...BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND AFTERNOON. OF GREATER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AS THE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MOVES INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. WITH MULTIPLE PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WILL ISSUE AN ESF BUT STILL TOO UNCERTAIN FOR ANY KIND OF FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE SFC TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A LOT OF MOISTURE COMING INTO OUR CWA. TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE THE PROBLEM...AS THERE COULD BE ONGOING ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING THAT WILL AFFECT DESTABILIZATION. GFS AND NAM BOTH HAVE CAPE VALUES REACHING AROUND 2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES NOT REALLY GET INTO THE 30 TO 45 KT RANGE UNTIL THE EVENING. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE VALLEY WESTWARD. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START WITH SOME SEVERE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN LIFTING NORTH INTO CANADA AND CLOSING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. WHAT IS NOT GOOD AGREEMENT IS THE TIMING OF PRECIP AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST QPF ENDS UP. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH BLANKET LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE PRECIP HERE AND THERE BUT IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. SOME SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH WE WILL DESTABILIZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THINK THAT PRECIP WILL FINALLY START TO TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH AND THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA. FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN AMPLIFIES A BIT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE THE PROBLEM THIS PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TROUGH TIMING IS SIMILAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE GFS IS FASTER WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND OF LOWER AMPLITUDE THAN THE ECMWF. WILL BLEND THE ECMWF AND GFS. TRIMMED BACK [POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH ON MON AND MON NIGHT. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON TUE NIGHT LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 AREA OF SHRA TO MOVE EAST OF KFAR EARLY AFTERNOON...LEAVING ALL TAF SITES PCPN FREE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. INTRODUCED VCTS TO ALL SITES TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS MONTANA SYSTEM MAKES SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST. CIGS MAINLY VFR FIRST HALF OF PERIOD WITH MVFR ENCROACHING DURING LATTER HALF. SLOW MOVEMENT AT ALL LEVELS WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS STEADY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST NOT TOO FAR FROM 10 KTS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY IN AN AREA FROM GWINNER TO LISBON THROUGH LATE TODAY DUE TO SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF OVER 4 INCHES IN A NARROW AREA BETWEEN GWINNER AND LISBON. THE RED RIVER AT FARGO CONTINUES TO DECLINE...NOW FALLING BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN MADE FOR THE RED...WITH GRADUALLY FALLING LEVELS FROM EAST GRAND FORKS UP TO OSLO...AND STILL RISING STAGES UP TO PEMBINA. A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK WITH INCREASED RELEASES FROM LAKE BRONSON. FALLING RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE ON THE BUFFALO AND S BUFFALO RIVER NEAR DILWORTH AND AT SABIN. WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND SATURATED GROUND...ADDITIONAL FLOOD CONCERNS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. PLEASE REFER TO THE ESF FOR FURTHER DETAILS. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RIDDLE SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES AVIATION...WJB HYDROLOGY...JAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1026 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 BIG QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR AND IN THIS SITUATION REVOLVE AROUND CONVECTIVE CHANGES/TIMING. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WAS QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING ERN SD INTO SE ND HELPING TO KEEP THE SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING. NOW STARTING TOO SEE MORE DIURNAL MIDDAY WEAKENING BUT STILL EXPECT THAT CLUSTER TO LINGER FOR A WHILE BUT RAINFALL RATES DIMINISHING. FLOOD ADVISORY FOR LISBON-GWINNER AREA WILL CONTINUE. RADAR SHOWS 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN. NO CONFIRMATION OF THAT...NEAREST SITE IS NDAWN STATION 2 W LISBON WITH NEARLY 2 INCHES SO FAR. FOR REST OF THE AREA A FEW LIGHTER SHOWERS THAT MOVED THRU NRN VALLEY INTO NW MN AND DRYING UP. NOTHING IN DVL BASIN OR CNTRL ND. OVERALL THINK NOT MUCH HAPPENING REST OF TODAY OUTSIDE OF LINGERING AREA OF SHOWERS IN SE ND MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP IN HIGHER INSTABILITY AND DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN EASTERN MONTANA AND MOVE NORTHEAST-EAST INTO WRN DAKOTAS THIS EVE AND THEN SPREAD EAST. THIS FOLLOWS SPC DAY1 THINKING. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE THE FORECAST HEADACHE...PARTICULARLY TIMING AND STRENGTH. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE PLAINS AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ONTO THE WEST COAST. ONE LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN SETTING OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL ND THAT ARE JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CWA AS 850MB JET OF AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS MOVES EAST...THINK THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION...SO FOLLOWED TREND OF THAT MODEL WITH HIGH POPS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CWA DURING THE MORNING. WITH A WARMER AIR MASS MOVING IN...THINK WE WILL STILL BE ABLE TO GET INTO THE 70S EVEN WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP. CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH DEBRIS FROM THIS MORNING AFFECTS DESTABILIZATION. THE NAM HAS 3000 J/KG OF CAPE BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS UNDERDONE ON THE CURRENT PRECIP WE HAVE OVER OUR SOUTH. MORE REASONABLE IS THE RAP WHICH BRINGS SOME 1000-1500 J/KG INTO OUR SOUTHWEST FOR THIS EVENING. THINK THAT SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY...BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND AFTERNOON. OF GREATER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AS THE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MOVES INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. WITH MULTIPLE PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WILL ISSUE AN ESF BUT STILL TOO UNCERTAIN FOR ANY KIND OF FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE SFC TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A LOT OF MOISTURE COMING INTO OUR CWA. TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE THE PROBLEM...AS THERE COULD BE ONGOING ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING THAT WILL AFFECT DESTABILIZATION. GFS AND NAM BOTH HAVE CAPE VALUES REACHING AROUND 2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES NOT REALLY GET INTO THE 30 TO 45 KT RANGE UNTIL THE EVENING. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE VALLEY WESTWARD. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START WITH SOME SEVERE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN LIFTING NORTH INTO CANADA AND CLOSING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. WHAT IS NOT GOOD AGREEMENT IS THE TIMING OF PRECIP AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST QPF ENDS UP. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH BLANKET LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE PRECIP HERE AND THERE BUT IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. SOME SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH WE WILL DESTABILIZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THINK THAT PRECIP WILL FINALLY START TO TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH AND THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA. FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN AMPLIFIES A BIT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE THE PROBLEM THIS PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TROUGH TIMING IS SIMILAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE GFS IS FASTER WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND OF LOWER AMPLITUDE THAN THE ECMWF. WILL BLEND THE ECMWF AND GFS. TRIMMED BACK [POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH ON MON AND MON NIGHT. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON TUE NIGHT LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 HAVE -SHRA AND SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER MOVING INTO KFAR BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. KEPT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES AT VCSH FOR NOW. THINK THAT MOST CIGS WILL BE VFR ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF DIPS TO MVFR MAY OCCUR AS PRECIP MOVES THROUGH. THE EXCEPTION IS UP AT KDVL WHICH IS IFR BUT EXPECT IT TO RECOVER BACK TO UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS TOWARDS MID MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DECREASING DOWN TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT. KEPT PRECIP MENTION JUST VCSH FOR NOW BUT MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME VCTS OR PREVAILING PRECIP AS THE LATER PARTS OF THE TRAF PERIOD DRAW CLOSER. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014 RECENT LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/RUNOFF IN THE TWO RIVERS RIVER...MIDDLE RIVER AND UPPER THIEF RIVER BASINS HAS RESULTED IN RISES ALONG THOSE TRIBUTARIES AND AT SOME FORECAST POINTS. THE NCRFC ISSUED A FORECAST ABOVE MINOR FS AT HALLOCK BY FRIDAY...BUT HELD OFF WITH A FLOOD WATCH. SHOULD THE WATER COMING OUT OF THE LOWER PORTION OF THE TWO RIVERS BASIN BE REALIZED THE TWO RIVERS AT HALLOCK WILL PEAK ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE FS. FARGO IS STILL ABOVE MODERATE LEVEL BUT IS FALLING AND OSLO IS FALLING VERY SLOWLY AFTER A BROAD CREST YESTERDAY. FORECAST QPF THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SLOW FALLS OR REVERSE TRENDS ON THE RIVER SYSTEMS. SATURATED SOILS WILL HAVE HIGH RUNOFF EFFICIENCY...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RIDDLE SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES AVIATION...JR HYDROLOGY...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 TWEAKED POPS A BIT MORE THIS MORNING FOR PRECIP BAND MOVING INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. CONTINUED TO HAVE A BIT OF A BREAK MID DAY BEFORE CONVECTION REDEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT AS THE WRF HAS PRECIP STICKING AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE THE FORECAST HEADACHE...PARTICULARLY TIMING AND STRENGTH. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE PLAINS AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ONTO THE WEST COAST. ONE LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN SETTING OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL ND THAT ARE JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CWA AS 850MB JET OF AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS MOVES EAST...THINK THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION...SO FOLLOWED TREND OF THAT MODEL WITH HIGH POPS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CWA DURING THE MORNING. WITH A WARMER AIR MASS MOVING IN...THINK WE WILL STILL BE ABLE TO GET INTO THE 70S EVEN WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP. CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH DEBRIS FROM THIS MORNING AFFECTS DESTABILIZATION. THE NAM HAS 3000 J/KG OF CAPE BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS UNDERDONE ON THE CURRENT PRECIP WE HAVE OVER OUR SOUTH. MORE REASONABLE IS THE RAP WHICH BRINGS SOME 1000-1500 J/KG INTO OUR SOUTHWEST FOR THIS EVENING. THINK THAT SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY...BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND AFTERNOON. OF GREATER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AS THE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MOVES INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT. WITH MULTIPLE PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND WILL ISSUE AN ESF BUT STILL TOO UNCERTAIN FOR ANY KIND OF FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE SFC TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A LOT OF MOISTURE COMING INTO OUR CWA. TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE THE PROBLEM...AS THERE COULD BE ONGOING ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING THAT WILL AFFECT DESTABILIZATION. GFS AND NAM BOTH HAVE CAPE VALUES REACHING AROUND 2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES NOT REALLY GET INTO THE 30 TO 45 KT RANGE UNTIL THE EVENING. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE VALLEY WESTWARD. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START WITH SOME SEVERE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN LIFTING NORTH INTO CANADA AND CLOSING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. WHAT IS NOT GOOD AGREEMENT IS THE TIMING OF PRECIP AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST QPF ENDS UP. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH BLANKET LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE PRECIP HERE AND THERE BUT IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. SOME SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH WE WILL DESTABILIZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THINK THAT PRECIP WILL FINALLY START TO TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH AND THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA. FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN AMPLIFIES A BIT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE THE PROBLEM THIS PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TROUGH TIMING IS SIMILAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE GFS IS FASTER WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND OF LOWER AMPLITUDE THAN THE ECMWF. WILL BLEND THE ECMWF AND GFS. TRIMMED BACK [POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH ON MON AND MON NIGHT. WILL TRIM BACK POPS ON TUE NIGHT LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 HAVE -SHRA AND SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER MOVING INTO KFAR BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. KEPT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES AT VCSH FOR NOW. THINK THAT MOST CIGS WILL BE VFR ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF DIPS TO MVFR MAY OCCUR AS PRECIP MOVES THROUGH. THE EXCEPTION IS UP AT KDVL WHICH IS IFR BUT EXPECT IT TO RECOVER BACK TO UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS TOWARDS MID MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DECREASING DOWN TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT. KEPT PRECIP MENTION JUST VCSH FOR NOW BUT MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME VCTS OR PREVAILING PRECIP AS THE LATER PARTS OF THE TRAF PERIOD DRAW CLOSER. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014 RECENT LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/RUNOFF IN THE TWO RIVERS RIVER...MIDDLE RIVER AND UPPER THIEF RIVER BASINS HAS RESULTED IN RISES ALONG THOSE TRIBUTARIES AND AT SOME FORECAST POINTS. THE NCRFC ISSUED A FORECAST ABOVE MINOR FS AT HALLOCK BY FRIDAY...BUT HELD OFF WITH A FLOOD WATCH. SHOULD THE WATER COMING OUT OF THE LOWER PORTION OF THE TWO RIVERS BASIN BE REALIZED THE TWO RIVERS AT HALLOCK WILL PEAK ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE FS. FARGO IS STILL ABOVE MODERATE LEVEL BUT IS FALLING AND OSLO IS FALLING VERY SLOWLY AFTER A BROAD CREST YESTERDAY. FORECAST QPF THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SLOW FALLS OR REVERSE TRENDS ON THE RIVER SYSTEMS. SATURATED SOILS WILL HAVE HIGH RUNOFF EFFICIENCY...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES AVIATION...JR HYDROLOGY...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
255 PM PDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS OVER NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE COAST AND WILL SPREAD RAIN TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN INLAND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREAS IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A DRYING TREND BEGINNING SUNDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE N WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON IN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE AREA. DONT EXPECT CLOUDS TO BREAK UP MUCH THIS EVENING AND THE NEXT SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING AND WILL KEEP THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS TODAY HAVE BEEN FASTER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM AND THE RAP AND HRRR INDICATE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD TO THE S WASHINGTON AND N OREGON COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OFFSHORE HAVE BEEN OVER 2 NEAR 41N 133W...BUT THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. STILL...THERE IS BROAD BAND OF 1 TO 1.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME WHICH WILL CROSS INTO NORTHWEST OREGON TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG WESTERLY JET APPROACHING WITH THIS SYSTEM MORE LIKE A WINTER TIME EVENT. IT WONT TAKE MUCH DYNAMICS OR OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. RAIN WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD TURN MORE SHOWERY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CAP AROUND 10000 FEET SO THE INSTABILITY IS ALL IN THE LOW LEVELS. STRONG JET CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WESTERLY JET WILL DECREASE ON SUNDAY AND UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD. SCHNEIDER .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUILDING RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S BY TUESDAY. THE RIDGE IS PROGRESSIVE HOWEVER AND THIS ALLOWS ON ONSHORE PUSH BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL. BOTH MODELS DIG AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. SCHNEIDER && .AVIATION...A BETTER MIXED LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING FOR INTERIOR SITES. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT PRIMARILY A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST...AND A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS INLAND FRIDAY. THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR FRIDAY MORNING. KPDX AND APPROACHES...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN LATER TONIGHT...TOWARDS 09Z FRIDAY. EXPECT ON AND OFF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. /NEUMAN && .MARINE...A FRONT WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE INTO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...WITH GUSTS OF 25 KT...LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A COASTAL JET WILL LIKELY ENHANCE WINDS WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT WIND WAVES TO INCREASE INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE EARLY FRIDAY...WHICH WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS A 7 TO 9 FT FRESH SWELL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGHER PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND ALLOW SEAS TO COME DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT WINDS TO FOLLOW A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS. /NEUMAN && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY. && $$ MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
559 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK 500 HPA TROUGH WILL PROVIDE RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A BUILDING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/... 6AM UPDATE...NUDGED LOWER POPS THIS AM AND LOWERED CLOUD AMOUNTS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. SATELLITE DATA COULD HELP IMPROVE CLOUD NOWCASTS AS VISIBLE DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY INTO THE REGION AS THE LOW PRESSURE OVER NJ AND THE TROUGH IS TO OUR EAST...ALONG WITH THE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE AND SHOWERS. DEW POINTS IN PENNSYLVANIA ARE MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE LOW AND TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER THIS MORNING. THUS NORTHERLY FLOW AND SLOWLY FALLING DEW POINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY THE REGION OUT. RADAR SHOWS NO RETURNS OVER OUR REGION AND OVER THE REGION THE 3-4KM MODELS HAVE SHOWN LIGHTS. KEPT POPS LOW OVER REGION THROUGH NOON. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WHICH WILL BURN OFF RELATIVELY FAST LATER THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE COOLER DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY ON NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE 06Z RAP IMPLIES SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS...THOUGH LOWER COVERAGE THAN EARLIER RUNS. THE 03Z SREF TOO SHOWS 20-50 PERCENT OF ITS MEMBERS WITH LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PUT SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE SHOWERS IN FORECAST MAINLY NORTH AND WEST AND NEAR NY BORDER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PW MOVES IN OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE SREF AGAIN...IT HAS A WET BIAS...IMPLIES SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS. KEPT THESE CLOSER TO TERRAIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A STRONG 500 HPA RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE A STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SURGE OF MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE AND A 500 HPA SHORT WAVE WILL SLOWLY PUSH A FRONTAL SYSTEM TOWARD THE REGION AROUND MID-WEEK. THIS COULD TRIGGER MORE ORGANIZED RAIN AND THEN ALLOW THE REGION TO DRY OUT. AT THIS TIME PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FROM ABOUT 3-5 JULY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AS THE HIGH PW AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE DEEP MOISTURE AND HIGH PW AIR SHOULD BE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY SUNDAY FURTHER INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PW AIR ALLOWS THE EFS TO PRODUCE RELATIVELY HIGH CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE REGION IN THE LATE TUESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY TIME FRAME...TIMING VARIES BY MEMBER IN THE GEFS AND CMC-EFS. ALL HAVE THE RIDGE MOVING EAST AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. KEPT POPS CHANCE AS THE TIMING OF THE BEST RAIN PERIOD WILL CHANGE. THE DEEP WARM MOIST AIR AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SUGGEST CHANCE SHOWERS MOST AFTERNOONS UNTIL FROPA. AT THIS TIME...THE DRIER AIR SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO THE REGION EITHER SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE 2 AND 3RD OF JULY. THIS IMPLIES LOW PW AIR OVER THE REGION FOR THE 4TH...AND LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE WISE...THE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL LATE SUNDAY TO EARLY MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. SHOULD BE A RELATIVE WARM AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WARM PERIOD MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR IS LINED UP WELL WITH THE MOIST AIR...A PRETTY MUGGY PERIOD TO START THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO WINDS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL USHER IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 14Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO REMAINS PLENTIFUL AFTER RAINFALL ON WED...AND COMBINED WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP AND PROVIDE VARIABLE RESTRICTIONS AREAWIDE. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY VFR WILL OCCUR BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY CFRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH BRIEF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING OVER THE AREA. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THESE LIKELY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. OUTLOOK... FRI...MAINLY VFR. SAT-MON...GENERALLY VFR...BUT LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GRUMM NEAR TERM...GRUMM SHORT TERM...GRUMM LONG TERM...GRUMM AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
433 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK 500 HPA TROUGH WILL PROVIDE RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A BUILDING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/... DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY INTO THE REGION AS THE LOW PRESSURE OVER NJ AND THE TROUGH IS TO OUR EAST...ALONG WITH THE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE AND SHOWERS. DEW POINTS IN PENNSYLVANIA ARE MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE LOW AND TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER THIS MORNING. THUS NORTHERLY FLOW AND SLOWLY FALLING DEW POINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY THE REGION OUT. RADAR SHOWS NO RETURNS OVER OUR REGION AND OVER THE REGION THE 3-4KM MODELS HAVE SHOWN LIGHTS. KEPT POPS LOW OVER REGION THROUGH NOON. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WHICH WILL BURN OFF RELATIVELY FAST LATER THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE COOLER DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY ON NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE 06Z RAP IMPLIES SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS...THOUGH LOWER COVERAGE THAN EARLIER RUNS. THE 03Z SREF TOO SHOWS 20-50 PERCENT OF ITS MEMBERS WITH LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PUT SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE SHOWERS IN FORECAST MAINLY NORTH AND WEST AND NEAR NY BORDER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY. HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PW MOVES IN OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE SREF AGAIN...IT HAS A WET BIAS...IMPLIES SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS. KEPT THESE CLOSER TO TERRAIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A STRONG 500 HPA RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE A STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SURGE OF MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE AND A 500 HPA SHORT WAVE WILL SLOWLY PUSH A FRONTAL SYSTEM TOWARD THE REGION AROUND MID-WEEK. THIS COULD TRIGGER MORE ORGANIZED RAIN AND THEN ALLOW THE REGION TO DRY OUT. AT THIS TIME PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FROM ABOUT 3-5 JULY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AS THE HIGH PW AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE DEEP MOISTURE AND HIGH PW AIR SHOULD BE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY SUNDAY FURTHER INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PW AIR ALLOWS THE EFS TO PRODUCE RELATIVELY HIGH CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE REGION IN THE LATE TUESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY TIME FRAME...TIMING VARIES BY MEMBER IN THE GEFS AND CMC-EFS. ALL HAVE THE RIDGE MOVING EAST AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. KEPT POPS CHANCE AS THE TIMING OF THE BEST RAIN PERIOD WILL CHANGE. THE DEEP WARM MOIST AIR AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SUGGEST CHANCE SHOWERS MOST AFTERNOONS UNTIL FROPA. AT THIS TIME...THE DRIER AIR SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO THE REGION EITHER SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE 2 AND 3RD OF JULY. THIS IMPLIES LOW PW AIR OVER THE REGION FOR THE 4TH...AND LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE WISE...THE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL LATE SUNDAY TO EARLY MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. SHOULD BE A RELATIVE WARM AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WARM PERIOD MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR IS LINED UP WELL WITH THE MOIST AIR...A PRETTY MUGGY PERIOD TO START THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO WINDS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL USHER IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 14Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO REMAINS PLENTIFUL AFTER RAINFALL ON WED...AND COMBINED WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP AND PROVIDE VARIABLE RESTRICTIONS AREAWIDE. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY VFR WILL OCCUR BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY CFRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH BRIEF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING OVER THE AREA. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THESE LIKELY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. OUTLOOK... FRI...MAINLY VFR. SAT-MON...GENERALLY VFR...BUT LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GRUMM NEAR TERM...GRUMM SHORT TERM...GRUMM LONG TERM...GRUMM AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
245 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK 500 HPA TROUGH WILL PROVIDE RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A BUILDING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SLID TO OUR EAST AND TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70 IN SOUTHEAST. SOME CENTRAL AREAS HAVE CLEARED OUT. DEW POINTS ARE STILL MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE MODELS SHOW SLOW DRYING OUT AS RESIDUAL HIGH PW AIR STILL SLOWLY WORKING OUT OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING AND DRY AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN. THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST VERY SLOWLY LIFTING AND THERE IS NO BIG HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST TO PUSH DRY AIR TOO FAST. THUS WITH ALL THE RAIN AND POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY...PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM AND ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN VALLEYS WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINS FELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY RANGE THROUGH THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SAG INTO THE REGION TODAY. IT WILL BE NOTICABLY DRIER AND SUNNIER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THE SURFACE FLOW IS WEAK BUT MODEST NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP DRY IT OUT. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RETURN TO RATHER COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW COULD TRIGGER MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SEEM TO FAVOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. REALLY SPOTTY STUFF. SREF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION (PDF) IMPLIES HIGHEST PDF POPS IN NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE. BUT CLEARLY SIGNAL IN HIGHER RESOLUTION SYSTEM IS FOR SOME SHOWERS ABOUT MAINLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NW TO THE MID 80S IN THE FAR SE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWD FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z SAT. THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL BECOME INCORPORATED INTO THE SEASONALLY FAMILIAR BERMUDA HIGH CIRCULATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW SOLIDIFYING THE DEFINITE SUMMERTIME PATTERN. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NORTH OF 30N WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AROUND 588M OVER CENTRAL PA OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MEAN FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...EXPECT PERSISTENCE FORECAST TO PERFORM REASONABLY WELL WITH INCREASINGLY HOT/HUMID AFTERNOONS WITH WEAKLY FORCED ISOLD TO SCT AIRMASS CONVECTION GIVING WAY TO WARM/MUGGY NIGHTS. WITH SUMMERTIME RIDGING MAKING ITS PRESENCE FELT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK...IN TURN...WILL BE LIFTED NOD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER - WHICH IS VERY TYPICAL HEADING INTO JULY. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL CANADA /MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO/ BY NEXT TUE-WED. PCPN WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG SERIES OF ATTENDANT COLD FRONTS PUSHING EWD THRU THE PLAINS/MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY. WPC SFC SPROGS SHOW A LEAD BOUNDARY REACHING THE UPPER OH VLY ON 30 JUNE FOLLOWED BY A MORE WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY 1-2 JULY. USING PWATS AS A GENERAL GUIDE...THE HIGHEST POPS ARE LKLY IN THE SUN-WED TIMEFRAME WHEN MSTR AVAILABILITY WILL BE +1SD ABOVE NORMAL. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVG IN SEEING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO WINDS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL USHER IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 14Z. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO REMAINS PLENTIFUL AFTER RAINFALL ON WED...AND COMBINED WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP AND PROVIDE VARIABLE RESTRICTIONS AREAWIDE. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY VFR WILL OCCUR BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY CFRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH BRIEF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING OVER THE AREA. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THESE LIKELY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. OUTLOOK... FRI...MAINLY VFR. SAT-MON...GENERALLY VFR...BUT LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GRUMM NEAR TERM...GRUMM SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
237 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK 500 HPA TROUGH WILL PROVIDE RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A BUILDING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SLID TO OUR EAST AND TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70 IN SOUTHEAST. SOME CENTRAL AREAS HAVE CLEARED OUT. DEW POINTS ARE STILL MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE MODELS SHOW SLOW DRYING OUT AS RESIDUAL HIGH PW AIR STILL SLOWLY WORKING OUT OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING AND DRY AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN. THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST VERY SLOWLY LIFTING AND THERE IS NO BIG HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST TO PUSH DRY AIR TOO FAST. THUS WITH ALL THE RAIN AND POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY...PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM AND ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN VALLEYS WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINS FELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY RANGE THROUGH THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SAG INTO THE REGION TODAY. IT WILL BE NOTICABLY DRIER AND SUNNIER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THE SURFACE FLOW IS WEAK BUT MODEST NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP DRY IT OUT. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RETURN TO RATHER COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW COULD TRIGGER MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SEEM TO FAVOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. REALLY SPOTTY STUFF. SREF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION (PDF) IMPLIES HIGHEST PDF POPS IN NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE. BUT CLEARLY SIGNAL IN HIGHER RESOLUTION SYSTEM IS FOR SOME SHOWERS ABOUT MAINLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NW TO THE MID 80S IN THE FAR SE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWD FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z SAT. THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL BECOME INCORPORATED INTO THE SEASONALLY FAMILIAR BERMUDA HIGH CIRCULATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW SOLIDIFYING THE DEFINITE SUMMERTIME PATTERN. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NORTH OF 30N WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AROUND 588M OVER CENTRAL PA OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MEAN FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...EXPECT PERSISTENCE FORECAST TO PERFORM REASONABLY WELL WITH INCREASINGLY HOT/HUMID AFTERNOONS WITH WEAKLY FORCED ISOLD TO SCT AIRMASS CONVECTION GIVING WAY TO WARM/MUGGY NIGHTS. WITH SUMMERTIME RIDGING MAKING ITS PRESENCE FELT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK...IN TURN...WILL BE LIFTED NOD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER - WHICH IS VERY TYPICAL HEADING INTO JULY. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL CANADA /MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO/ BY NEXT TUE-WED. PCPN WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG SERIES OF ATTENDANT COLD FRONTS PUSHING EWD THRU THE PLAINS/MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY. WPC SFC SPROGS SHOW A LEAD BOUNDARY REACHING THE UPPER OH VLY ON 30 JUNE FOLLOWED BY A MORE WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY 1-2 JULY. USING PWATS AS A GENERAL GUIDE...THE HIGHEST POPS ARE LKLY IN THE SUN-WED TIMEFRAME WHEN MSTR AVAILABILITY WILL BE +1SD ABOVE NORMAL. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVG IN SEEING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED FOR UPSLOPE FLOW AT BFD AND JST TO ALLOW FOR MVFR TO IFR CIGS...THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. THIS IS DUE TO THE LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY WEAK NW FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF STRATUS...1-3SM VSBYS IN FOG...AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN MTNS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY VFR WILL OCCUR DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH BRIEF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING OVER THE AREA. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THESE LIKELY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. OUTLOOK... THU...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAINLY VFR BUT SOME LINGERING SHRA POSSIBLE AND LOW CIGS LIKELY IN THE MORNING. FRI...MAINLY VFR. SAT-SUN...GENERALLY VFR...BUT LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS..GRUMM NEAR TERM...GRUMM SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
113 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CREEP BACK UP DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SLID TO OUR EAST AND TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70 IN SOUTHEAST. SOME CENTRAL AREAS HAVE CLEARED OUT. DEW POINTS ARE STILL MAINLY IN THE 60S. THE MODELS SHOW SLOW DRYING OUT AS RESIDUAL HIGH PW AIR STILL SLOWLY WORKING OUT OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING AND DRY AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN. THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST VERY SLOWLY LIFTING AND THERE IS NO BIG HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST TO PUSH DRY AIR TOO FAST. THUS WITH ALL THE RAIN AND POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY...PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM AND ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN VALLEYS WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINS FELL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY RANGE THROUGH THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... THE COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SAG INTO THE REGION TODAY. IT WILL BE NOTICABLY DRIER AND SUNNIER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THE SURFACE FLOW IS WEAK BUT MODEST NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP DRY IT OUT. SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RETURN TO RATHER COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW COULD TRIGGER MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SEEM TO FAVOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. REALLY SPOTTY STUFF. SREF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION (PDF) IMPLIES HIGHEST PDF POPS IN NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE. BUT CLEARLY SIGNAL IN HIGHER RESOLUTION SYSTEM IS FOR SOME SHOWERS ABOUT MAINLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NW TO THE MID 80S IN THE FAR SE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWD FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TO THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z SAT. THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL BECOME INCORPORATED INTO THE SEASONALLY FAMILIAR BERMUDA HIGH CIRCULATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW SOLIDIFYING THE DEFINITE SUMMERTIME PATTERN. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NORTH OF 30N WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AROUND 588M OVER CENTRAL PA OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MEAN FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...EXPECT PERSISTENCE FORECAST TO PERFORM REASONABLY WELL WITH INCREASINGLY HOT/HUMID AFTERNOONS WITH WEAKLY FORCED ISOLD TO SCT AIRMASS CONVECTION GIVING WAY TO WARM/MUGGY NIGHTS. WITH SUMMERTIME RIDGING MAKING ITS PRESENCE FELT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK...IN TURN...WILL BE LIFTED NWD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER - WHICH IS VERY TYPICAL HEADING INTO JULY. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL CANADA /MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO/ BY NEXT TUE-WED. PCPN WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG SERIES OF ATTENDANT COLD FRONTS PUSHING EWD THRU THE PLAINS/MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY. WPC SFC PROGS SHOW A LEAD BOUNDARY REACHING THE UPPER OH VLY ON 30 JUNE FOLLOWED BY A MORE WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION BY 1-2 JULY. USING PWATS AS A GENERAL GUIDE...THE HIGHEST POPS ARE LKLY IN THE SUN-WED TIMEFRAME WHEN MSTR AVAILABILITY WILL BE +1SD ABOVE NORMAL. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVG IN SEEING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED FOR UPSLOPE FLOW AT BFD AND JST TO ALLOW FOR MVFR TO IFR CIGS...THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. THIS IS DUE TO THE LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY WEAK NW FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF STRATUS...1-3SM VSBYS IN FOG...AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN MTNS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY VFR WILL OCCUR DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY CFRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH BRIEF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING OVER THE AREA. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THESE LIKELY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. OUTLOOK... THU...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAINLY VFR BUT SOME LINGERING SHRA POSSIBLE AND LOW CIGS LIKELY IN THE MORNING. FRI...MAINLY VFR. SAT-SUN...GENERALLY VFR...BUT LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE NEAR TERM...GRUMM SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT LONG TERM...STEINBUGL AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
853 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 852 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014 COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS UPPER TROF PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER BOWED LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEB AND WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH THE GREATEST RISK TOWARD CENTRAL SD. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED A LOT OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN SD...ESPECIALLY OVER PERKINS CO. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PERKINS COUNTY...WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN ESTIMATED BY RADAR. ANOTHER INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWESTERN SD...WHILE ALSO CANCELLING THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF FAR WESTERN SD. THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROF...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN WY. WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PCPN LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. && .SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN TO CNTRL ROCKIES AREA WITH SEVERAL WAVES ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OVER WY TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. OBS SHOW A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STATIONED NEAR THE SD/WY BORDER...WITH 10+ DEGREE TEMP DIFFERENCE FROM NE WY TO WRN SD. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER FORCING SLIDES NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT WAVE. KUDX RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. STRONGEST CAPE WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS CNTRL SD AT 1500 J/KG...OTHERWISE WEAK CAPE ACROSS NE WY WILL HINDER ANY SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG UPDRAFTS AND LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL. NAM KEEPS DCAPE WEAK OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT LATEST RAP DOES BRING SOME HIGHER DCAPE TO WRN SD SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH HAIL. HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVNG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND AN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS. WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A SERIES OF WAVES CROSSING THE REGION. DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY WEAK ACROSS THE CWA...BUT ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO POP UP ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY DISSIPATE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014 DRIER WX WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHES TO OUR EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND IT FROM WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...MOVING INTO THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE READINGS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRING A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD...THEN PUSH EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL SD BY LATE EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE ACROSS WESTERN SD WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS...AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR SDZ001-002- 012>014-031-032-042>044-073. WY...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...26 SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM...JOHNSON AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
536 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014 .SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN TO CNTRL ROCKIES AREA WITH SEVERAL WAVES ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OVER WY TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. OBS SHOW A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STATIONED NEAR THE SD/WY BORDER...WITH 10+ DEGREE TEMP DIFFERENCE FROM NE WY TO WRN SD. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER FORCING SLIDES NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT WAVE. KUDX RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. STRONGEST CAPE WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS CNTRL SD AT 1500 J/KG...OTHERWISE WEAK CAPE ACROSS NE WY WILL HINDER ANY SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG UPDRAFTS AND LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL. NAM KEEPS DCAPE WEAK OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT LATEST RAP DOES BRING SOME HIGHER DCAPE TO WRN SD SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH HAIL. HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVNG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND AN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS. WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A SERIES OF WAVES CROSSING THE REGION. DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY WEAK ACROSS THE CWA...BUT ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO POP UP ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY DISSIPATE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014 DRIER WX WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHES TO OUR EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND IT FROM WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...MOVING INTO THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE READINGS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRING A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD...THEN PUSH EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL SD BY LATE EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE ACROSS WESTERN SD WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS...AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR SDZ001-002- 012>014-024>032-041>044-072>074. WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ054-056-057- 071. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM...JOHNSON AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
309 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .DISCUSSION... BROKEN SHOWER COVERAGE IS OBSERVED ACROSS NRN AL AND EXTENDING INTO FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOES EXTEND FROM AR SE THROUGH CENTRAL MS WITH PVA TO THE NE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE THIS EVENING BUT BOTH THE HRRR AND OVERALL MODEL MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH OVERNIGHT. DYNAMICS ALOFT DONT SEEM TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THE BROKEN TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. HOWEVER...FROM WHAT I AM SEEING...MODEL GUIDANCE MIGHT BE A TAD TOO LOW AND WILL THEREFORE WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. ON FRIDAY...WE WILL SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF ANTI CYCLONIC RIDGING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN THE MORNING. STILL PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITHIN THE MODELS. BUT...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THAT MAY LIMIT THE CONVECTION EARLY ON. BY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL INFLEXION POINT WILL SKIRT OFF TO THE NE. FLOW CONTAINS MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WITH IMPULSES WITHIN. MODEL MOISTURE IS ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE TOWARD 12Z. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. SO ALL IN ALL OVER THE SHORT TERM...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. TSTMS WILL OF COURSE BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THE MORE UNIFORM VERTICAL FLOW PATTERN TENDS TO CUT DOWN ON OUR CAPE VALUES. FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LOT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW PERIODS THROUGH SATURDAY. WHEN APPLYING THE 850 MB TEMPS AND PARCEL MIXING...THE GFS MAX TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH. IN FACT...WHILE I`M AT IT...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CASE IN THE EXTENDED AS WELL. SO...WILL GO AHEAD AND UNDERCUT MAX TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE BULK OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. AS FOR LOW TEMPS...LITTLE DEVIATION WILL BE USED. IN THE EXTENDED FCST...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO BUILD JUST TO OUR SOUTH. WEAK WESTERLIES WITH HIGH HEIGHT VALUES TO PREVAIL. CAPE WILL INCREASE AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DECREASES. STILL SEEING SOME CAP EROSION EVERY AFTERNOON BUT POPS OF 20 PERCENT WILL BE THE MAIN TREND. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...A WEAKENING BOUNDARY MAY REQUIRE A 30 POP HERE AND THERE. AGAIN...FOR THE EXTENDED TEMPS...WILL TREND TOWARD COOLER THAN THE ADVERTISED MAXES. 96 ON MONDAY FOR BNA LOOKS TOO HIGH EVEN WITH FULL 850 MB MIXING. EURO NUMBERS LOOK MORE BELIEVABLE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... NASHVILLE 68 88 70 88 / 30 40 50 50 CLARKSVILLE 66 88 68 88 / 30 40 50 50 CROSSVILLE 64 84 65 83 / 30 50 50 50 COLUMBIA 68 88 69 89 / 40 60 50 50 LAWRENCEBURG 67 87 68 88 / 50 60 50 50 WAVERLY 67 88 69 88 / 40 50 50 50 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
950 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 .UPDATE... AM PULLING THUNDER FROM ALL BUT NORTHWEST ZONES (CORRECTED). FEW SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDER IN NORTHWEST BEFORE 1 AM THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER THAT. 84 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/ /00Z TAFS/ THE MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE WIND SPEEDS AND TRENDING CIGS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 14-19 KTS WITH GUSTS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 25 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT AND ARRIVAL SHOULD BE EXPEDITED SOONER BY AN HOUR OR TWO. HAVE MOVED ARRIVAL OF MVFR CIGS TO 06Z AT WACO AND 08Z DFW METRO AIRPORTS. RUC AND NAM12 HAVE A POSSIBILITY OF ARRIVAL BEING EVEN SOONER...BUT WILL MONITOR AND AWAIT DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY TIMING CHANGES. VFR RETURNS LATE MORNING SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS HOVERING AROUND 20 KTS. COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM BY 18Z AND AFTER... BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INSERT INTO FORECAST JUST YET. 05/ && .PREV UPDATE... .UPDATE... PULLING THE POPS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. 84 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/ AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY ORIENTED FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING...WEAK LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNSET OR SLIGHTLY LATER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THIS EAST TEXAS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING WHILE A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN THE CAP CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS AND MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THE CAP IS ABLE TO BREAK SATURDAY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EAST OF TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND BRING AN END TO MOST OF THE STORMS. ALTHOUGH...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER IN THE EAST SUNDAY BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND RESULTS IN INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THE WEATHER FOR THE LAST DAY OF JUNE INTO EARLY JULY SHOULD BE A BIT MORE TYPICAL WITH ONLY SOME VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CLOSELY AS THE EXTENDED MODELS ALL AMPLIFY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WHICH IN TURN BRINGS A RETURN OF NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH/CROSS THE RED RIVER. WE WILL ADD SOME 20 POPS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR NOW IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND AWAIT A BIT MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE INCREASING POPS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 74 92 77 93 76 / 10 30 20 10 10 WACO, TX 75 92 79 93 77 / 10 20 10 10 10 PARIS, TX 70 88 74 90 74 / 10 40 30 20 10 DENTON, TX 75 91 77 94 76 / 10 30 20 10 10 MCKINNEY, TX 74 90 76 91 74 / 10 30 20 10 10 DALLAS, TX 74 91 77 92 76 / 10 30 20 10 10 TERRELL, TX 73 90 75 92 74 / 10 30 20 20 10 CORSICANA, TX 72 91 75 92 75 / 10 30 20 20 10 TEMPLE, TX 73 92 77 93 75 / 10 20 10 10 10 MINERAL WELLS, TX 71 93 74 95 72 / 10 20 20 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ /
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
941 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 .UPDATE... PULLING THE POPS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. 84 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/ /00Z TAFS/ THE MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE WIND SPEEDS AND TRENDING CIGS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 14-19 KTS WITH GUSTS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 25 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT AND ARRIVAL SHOULD BE EXPEDITED SOONER BY AN HOUR OR TWO. HAVE MOVED ARRIVAL OF MVFR CIGS TO 06Z AT WACO AND 08Z DFW METRO AIRPORTS. RUC AND NAM12 HAVE A POSSIBILITY OF ARRIVAL BEING EVEN SOONER...BUT WILL MONITOR AND AWAIT DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY TIMING CHANGES. VFR RETURNS LATE MORNING SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS HOVERING AROUND 20 KTS. COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM BY 18Z AND AFTER... BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INSERT INTO FORECAST JUST YET. 05/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/ AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY ORIENTED FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING...WEAK LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNSET OR SLIGHTLY LATER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THIS EAST TEXAS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING WHILE A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN THE CAP CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS AND MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THE CAP IS ABLE TO BREAK SATURDAY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EAST OF TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND BRING AN END TO MOST OF THE STORMS. ALTHOUGH...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER IN THE EAST SUNDAY BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND RESULTS IN INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THE WEATHER FOR THE LAST DAY OF JUNE INTO EARLY JULY SHOULD BE A BIT MORE TYPICAL WITH ONLY SOME VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CLOSELY AS THE EXTENDED MODELS ALL AMPLIFY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WHICH IN TURN BRINGS A RETURN OF NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH/CROSS THE RED RIVER. WE WILL ADD SOME 20 POPS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR NOW IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND AWAIT A BIT MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE INCREASING POPS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 74 92 77 93 76 / 20 30 20 10 10 WACO, TX 75 92 79 93 77 / 20 20 10 10 10 PARIS, TX 70 88 74 90 74 / 30 40 30 20 10 DENTON, TX 75 91 77 94 76 / 20 30 20 10 10 MCKINNEY, TX 74 90 76 91 74 / 20 30 20 10 10 DALLAS, TX 74 91 77 92 76 / 20 30 20 10 10 TERRELL, TX 73 90 75 92 74 / 20 30 20 20 10 CORSICANA, TX 72 91 75 92 75 / 20 30 20 20 10 TEMPLE, TX 73 92 77 93 75 / 20 20 10 10 10 MINERAL WELLS, TX 71 93 74 95 72 / 10 20 20 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ /
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
848 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 .UPDATE... COASTAL PLAINS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TAPERING OFF EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF LAVACA COUNTY WITHIN THE HOUR...OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT...FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD AFFECT THE NORTHWEST PART OF VAL VERDE COUNTY. THESE STORMS ARE PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A DRY-LINE OVER WEST TEXAS. IF THE STORMS DO MAKE IT INTO NORTHWEST VAL VERDE COUNTY...COULD PRODUCE FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. A DRYING TREND IS IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEA BREEZE CONVECTION TYPE SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/ AVIATION... ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THEY MOVE NORTH FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF THE SAN ANTONIO TAF SITES. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL AMEND IF ANY ACTIVITY MOVES CLOSER TO THE TERMINALS. A RETURN OF MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. ARRIVAL TIME ALONG THE I-35 SITES WILL BE AROUND 5Z AND AROUND 10Z FOR DRT. WILL TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK FOR KAUS AND KSSF...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING. VFR SHOULD RETURN AFTER 16-17Z. PRECIP CHANCES ONCE AGAIN LOOK BEST EAST OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAMPSHIRE PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WILL GRADUALLY END AROUND SUNSET. HRRR AND GFS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKING IT INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL END OF FORCING FROM MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF NM INTO WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE A LOW 10-20 POP OUT ACROSS VAL VERDE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TONIGHT. THE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HANGS ON ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 INTO SATURDAY. ONE MORE DAY OF ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BEFORE DRYING TAKES PLACE. LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID LEVEL DRYING IS INDICATED BY MODELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... WITH FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING JUST TO NORTH. WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE TAKES PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BENEATH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN TEMPS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 92 78 93 76 / 10 20 10 - - AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 93 77 93 76 / 10 20 10 - - NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 77 94 77 / 10 20 10 - - BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 90 75 90 73 / 10 20 10 - - DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 96 78 95 77 / 10 - - - - GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 76 92 75 / 10 20 10 - - HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 76 94 75 / 10 10 10 - - SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 92 77 93 77 / 10 20 10 - - LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 92 78 92 77 / 20 20 10 - - SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 92 78 94 77 / 10 20 10 - - STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 93 78 94 77 / 10 20 10 - - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
659 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 .AVIATION... ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THEY MOVE NORTH FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF THE SAN ANTONIO TAF SITES. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL AMEND IF ANY ACTIVITY MOVES CLOSER TO THE TERMINALS. A RETURN OF MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. ARRIVAL TIME ALONG THE I-35 SITES WILL BE AROUND 5Z AND AROUND 10Z FOR DRT. WILL TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK FOR KAUS AND KSSF...SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING. VFR SHOULD RETURN AFTER 16-17Z. PRECIP CHANCES ONCE AGAIN LOOK BEST EAST OF THE TAF SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAMPSHIRE && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WILL GRADUALLY END AROUND SUNSET. HRRR AND GFS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKING IT INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL END OF FORCING FROM MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF NM INTO WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE A LOW 10-20 POP OUT ACROSS VAL VERDE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TONIGHT. THE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HANGS ON ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 INTO SATURDAY. ONE MORE DAY OF ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BEFORE DRYING TAKES PLACE. LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID LEVEL DRYING IS INDICATED BY MODELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... WITH FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING JUST TO NORTH. WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE TAKES PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BENEATH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN TEMPS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 92 78 93 76 / 10 20 10 - - AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 93 77 93 76 / 10 20 10 - - NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 77 94 77 / 10 20 10 - - BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 90 75 90 73 / 10 20 10 - - DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 96 78 95 77 / 10 - - - - GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 76 92 75 / 10 20 10 - - HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 76 94 75 / 10 10 10 - - SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 92 77 93 77 / 10 20 10 - - LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 92 78 92 77 / 20 20 10 - - SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 92 78 94 77 / 10 20 10 - - STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 93 78 94 77 / 10 20 10 - - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17 PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
642 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 .AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ THE MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE WIND SPEEDS AND TRENDING CIGS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A STRONG SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE 14-19 KTS WITH GUSTS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 25 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT AND ARRIVAL SHOULD BE EXPEDITED SOONER BY AN HOUR OR TWO. HAVE MOVED ARRIVAL OF MVFR CIGS TO 06Z AT WACO AND 08Z DFW METRO AIRPORTS. RUC AND NAM12 HAVE A POSSIBILITY OF ARRIVAL BEING EVEN SOONER...BUT WILL MONITOR AND AWAIT DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY TIMING CHANGES. VFR RETURNS LATE MORNING SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS HOVERING AROUND 20 KTS. COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM BY 18Z AND AFTER... BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INSERT INTO FORECAST JUST YET. 05/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/ AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN ROUGHLY ORIENTED FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING...WEAK LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNSET OR SLIGHTLY LATER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THIS EAST TEXAS UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING WHILE A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN THE CAP CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS AND MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THE CAP IS ABLE TO BREAK SATURDAY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DE-AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EAST OF TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND BRING AN END TO MOST OF THE STORMS. ALTHOUGH...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER IN THE EAST SUNDAY BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND RESULTS IN INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THE WEATHER FOR THE LAST DAY OF JUNE INTO EARLY JULY SHOULD BE A BIT MORE TYPICAL WITH ONLY SOME VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CLOSELY AS THE EXTENDED MODELS ALL AMPLIFY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WHICH IN TURN BRINGS A RETURN OF NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ALLOWS A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH/CROSS THE RED RIVER. WE WILL ADD SOME 20 POPS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR NOW IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND AWAIT A BIT MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE INCREASING POPS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 74 92 77 93 76 / 20 30 20 10 10 WACO, TX 75 92 79 93 77 / 20 20 10 10 10 PARIS, TX 70 88 74 90 74 / 30 40 30 20 10 DENTON, TX 75 91 77 94 76 / 20 30 20 10 10 MCKINNEY, TX 74 90 76 91 74 / 20 30 20 10 10 DALLAS, TX 74 91 77 92 76 / 20 30 20 10 10 TERRELL, TX 73 90 75 92 74 / 20 30 20 20 10 CORSICANA, TX 72 91 75 92 75 / 20 30 20 20 10 TEMPLE, TX 73 92 77 93 75 / 20 20 10 10 10 MINERAL WELLS, TX 71 93 74 95 72 / 10 20 20 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 05/79
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
308 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING THE MIDDLE TEXAS MARINE ZONES AND LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CWA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CAPTURES ONGOING CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL... WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW ON WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION...BUT WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS THROUGH 00Z. ANTICIPATE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME LATER THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS HELP KEEPS TEMPS UP A BIT. WEAKNESS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER WITH PW/S AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH... MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA REGION WHERE 30 AND 40 POPS ARE LOCATED. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 90S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO AROUND 90 OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. IF MORE RAINFALL DEVELOPS TOMORROW MORNING THOUGH...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE EAST. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A GRADUALLY DRYING FORECAST AS PWATS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. MIDLEVEL TEMPS REMAIN COOL ENOUGH TO FORESTALL CAP DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL REASONABLE DIURNALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW PICKS UP OVER THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS PICKS UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT SUPPORT RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISCREPANCIES APPEAR AT THIS TIMEFRAME SO WILL JUST BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR LOWS DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 77 94 80 92 81 / 30 40 20 30 10 VICTORIA 75 90 78 93 78 / 30 40 20 30 10 LAREDO 79 97 80 101 81 / 20 20 10 10 10 ALICE 76 95 78 95 79 / 30 30 20 20 10 ROCKPORT 79 91 81 91 82 / 30 30 20 30 10 COTULLA 75 97 77 97 77 / 20 20 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 78 94 79 94 80 / 30 30 20 30 10 NAVY CORPUS 80 90 81 90 82 / 30 30 20 30 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ TB/78...SHORT TERM JV/71...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1014 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .UPDATE... MORNING ARW/NAM/RAP SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA...AND WE FEEL THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF A LINE FROM PARIS TO TEMPLE. ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN BACK UP TOMORROW...SO NO CHANGES YET FOR ANYTHING PAST TODAY/TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THIS DRIER AIR AND ONLY TWEAKED OTHER PARAMETERS SLIGHTLY. UPDATE SHOULD BE OUT SHORTLY. 84 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014/ FOR THE 12Z TAFS...FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH STRATUS OVER THE REGION AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD. ALL AREA TAF SITES WERE UNDER IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS JUST BEFORE 12Z. CIGS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX HAVE IMPROVED FROM IFR TO LOW MVFR FROM 11 TO 12Z...SO THINK THAT DFW AREA CIGS WILL TEND TO BECOME MOSTLY LOW MVFR AFTER 13Z. CIGS WERE CONSISTENTLY LOWER AROUND THE WACO AREA...SO CARRIED IFR CIGS THERE AN HOUR LONGER THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE 2000 FT BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY...AND SHOULD REACH VFR LEVELS BY NOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 4 KM NAM AND LATEST RAP SHOW THAT OUR ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNCAPPED AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT AHEAD WITH A COUPLE OF HOURS OF VCTS AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS. OF COURSE WE WILL BE WATCHING SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADARS AND WILL AMEND TAFS AS SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OR UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPROACHES AREA AIRPORTS. EXPECT STRATUS TO BUILD/DEVELOP OVER ALL AREA AIRPORTS AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES OCCUR AFTER 18Z...SO NO MENTION OF THIS WAS PLACED AT THE END OF THE 30 HR DFW TAF. CAVANAUGH && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014/ WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT AND PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE HAS LED TO A STRING OF DAYS OF ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND IT APPEARS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY. THE DIFFERENCE TODAY IS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST...WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES TODAY WHERE THE HIGHEST MOISTURE VALUES RESIDE...WITH A GRADUAL TAPERING OF POPS THE FARTHER WEST YOU GO. MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR MCVS HAVE BEEN LACKING THIS MORNING COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...LEADING TO QUIET CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY. WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO WAIT UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE REACHED BEFORE STORMS INITIATE. PWATS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN ANY STORM WHICH DEVELOPS. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHORT CELL DURATION....THOUGH THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING EAST OF I-35 EAST. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...BUT GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EVEN FARTHER EAST...WHILE WEAKENING...AND THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS FRIDAY GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT LINGERING OVER THE AREA. BIGGER NEWS WILL BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO SWING QUITE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST LOW-END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AREA-WIDE SATURDAY. THE LATEST NAM12 INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT NORTHWEST OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING. WOULD PREFER TO WAIT AND GET SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE BITING OFF ON THIS...SO FOR NOW WE WILL INDICATE BROAD- BRUSHED POPS SATURDAY...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE MS VALLEY. BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS HOT AND DRY WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 88 72 89 74 90 / 10 10 20 20 20 WACO, TX 87 72 88 74 89 / 20 10 20 20 20 PARIS, TX 84 69 87 72 88 / 30 20 30 20 20 DENTON, TX 88 71 89 73 89 / 10 10 20 10 20 MCKINNEY, TX 87 71 88 73 89 / 10 10 20 20 20 DALLAS, TX 88 73 89 74 89 / 10 10 20 20 20 TERRELL, TX 86 74 88 76 91 / 20 10 30 20 20 CORSICANA, TX 86 72 88 74 89 / 30 20 30 20 20 TEMPLE, TX 87 72 88 74 89 / 20 10 20 20 20 MINERAL WELLS, TX 88 71 90 72 89 / 10 10 10 10 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ /
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
704 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .AVIATION... FOR THE 12Z TAFS...FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH STRATUS OVER THE REGION AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD. ALL AREA TAF SITES WERE UNDER IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS JUST BEFORE 12Z. CIGS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX HAVE IMPROVED FROM IFR TO LOW MVFR FROM 11 TO 12Z...SO THINK THAT DFW AREA CIGS WILL TEND TO BECOME MOSTLY LOW MVFR AFTER 13Z. CIGS WERE CONSISTENTLY LOWER AROUND THE WACO AREA...SO CARRIED IFR CIGS THERE AN HOUR LONGER THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE 2000 FT BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY...AND SHOULD REACH VFR LEVELS BY NOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 4 KM NAM AND LATEST RAP SHOW THAT OUR ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNCAPPED AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT AHEAD WITH A COUPLE OF HOURS OF VCTS AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS. OF COURSE WE WILL BE WATCHING SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADARS AND WILL AMEND TAFS AS SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OR UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPROACHES AREA AIRPORTS. EXPECT STRATUS TO BUILD/DEVELOP OVER ALL AREA AIRPORTS AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCES OCCUR AFTER 18Z...SO NO MENTION OF THIS WAS PLACED AT THE END OF THE 30 HR DFW TAF. CAVANAUGH && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014/ WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT AND PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE HAS LED TO A STRING OF DAYS OF ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND IT APPEARS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY. THE DIFFERENCE TODAY IS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST...WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES TODAY WHERE THE HIGHEST MOISTURE VALUES RESIDE...WITH A GRADUAL TAPERING OF POPS THE FARTHER WEST YOU GO. MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR MCVS HAVE BEEN LACKING THIS MORNING COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...LEADING TO QUIET CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY. WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO WAIT UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE REACHED BEFORE STORMS INITIATE. PWATS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN ANY STORM WHICH DEVELOPS. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SHORT CELL DURATION....THOUGH THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING EAST OF I-35 EAST. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...BUT GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EVEN FARTHER EAST...WHILE WEAKENING...AND THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS FRIDAY GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT LINGERING OVER THE AREA. BIGGER NEWS WILL BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO SWING QUITE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST LOW-END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AREA-WIDE SATURDAY. THE LATEST NAM12 INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT NORTHWEST OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...WE MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING. WOULD PREFER TO WAIT AND GET SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE BITING OFF ON THIS...SO FOR NOW WE WILL INDICATE BROAD- BRUSHED POPS SATURDAY...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE MS VALLEY. BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS HOT AND DRY WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. 30 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 88 72 89 74 90 / 30 20 20 20 20 WACO, TX 87 72 88 74 89 / 30 20 20 20 20 PARIS, TX 84 69 87 72 88 / 30 20 30 20 20 DENTON, TX 88 71 89 73 89 / 30 20 20 10 20 MCKINNEY, TX 87 71 88 73 89 / 30 20 20 20 20 DALLAS, TX 88 73 89 74 89 / 30 20 20 20 20 TERRELL, TX 86 74 88 76 91 / 30 20 30 20 20 CORSICANA, TX 86 72 88 74 89 / 40 20 30 20 20 TEMPLE, TX 87 72 88 74 89 / 40 20 20 20 20 MINERAL WELLS, TX 88 71 90 72 89 / 20 10 10 10 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ /
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
216 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 100 AM EDT THURSDAY... MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...BASICALLY TWEAKING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO BASED ON LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES...BUT QUICKLY DRY UP IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE WEST. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... SURFACE TROUGH HAS WORKED INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING WITH MOST SHOWERS NOW EAST OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL FAINT SURFACE COOL FRONT TO THE NW. WESTERLY FLOW IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE HAS ALSO ACTED TO LIMIT ADDED INSTABILITY AND LIFT WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHRA SEEN UPSTREAM. SOME OF THIS COVERAGE COULD SLIDE INTO THE FAR NW ZONES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT OVERALL APPEARS MOST WILL GO MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS DEWPOINTS FALL A BIT AND WINDS TURN NW. THUS HAVE REMOVED MOST POPS PER THE LATEST HRRR EXCEPT FOR THE UPSLOPE NW WHERE A SHOWER OR TWO COULD OCCUR THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES BUT EVEN THAT APPEARS IFFY. ALSO DECREASED CLOUD COVER SOONER WITH PC TO MOSTLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF THE UPSLOPE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND BEEFED UP FOG COVERAGE ESPCLY SE WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURRED. LOW TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 60S EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER TONIGHT WESTERN VALLEYS GIVEN SOME DRYING BEFORE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPS. ON THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS TO SPREAD SOUTH. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ALONG WITH UPSLOPE NW FLOW. WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... OVERALL MODELS SIMILAR IN HAVING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF US THU NIGHT-FRIDAY. SFC HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME...WITH SFC FLOW TURNING MORE EAST. DRIER AIR WILL START TO FADE THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...DUE TO INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE. NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD...BUT GIVEN SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LVLS AND HIGHER PWATS...THINK THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPS FOLLOWED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS WITH LOWS ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THU NIGHT IF CLOUDS ARE LESS OVER THE MTNS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. LIGHT EAST FLOW AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT HIGHS FROM BEING TOO WARM FRI BUT STILL 80S CWA WIDE...EXCEPT 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES FRI NIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 60S MTNS TO UPPER 60S EAST. SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR ON HIGHS BUT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF MORE SUN OCCURS. GOING WITH 80S CWA WIDE...LOWER 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 EAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 110 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... YOU CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME ACROSS OUR AREA THIS PERIOD. MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN RESPECT TO UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN U.S. BUT OVERALL APPEARS THE VIRGINIAS AND NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE STUCK IN AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST WED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BACKDOOR TOWARD THE NRN CWA BY MIDWEEK. OVERALL...DECIDED TO CUT POPS BACK FROM LIKELY TO CHANCE GIVEN LACK OF ANY REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM SYNOPTICALLY THIS PERIOD. STILL SOME FOLKS WILL GET RAINED AND STORMED ON AT SOME POINT DURING THIS TIME. BUT GENERALLY EXPECT YOUR USUAL SCATTERING OF STORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNINGS. MODELS DO FAVOR MOISTURE STAYING RAMPED UP WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE. EXPECT MUGGY NIGHTS AND VERY WARM/HOT HUMID DAYS. WITH MOISTURE CONTENT STAYING ELEVATED THINK HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS OR JUST ABOVE. STILL THE HUMIDITY WILL ADD TO THE HEAT INDEX FACTOR BY A FEW DEGREES. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 210 AM EDT THURSDAY... SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SPOTTY LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT REMAINS SITUATED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO CARRY IMPULSES RESULTING IN SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP AS THEY ENTER THE DOWNSLOPE SIDE OF THE RIDGES. A FEW LOCATIONS ARE COOLING TO SATURATION...AND EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KLWB BEFORE SUNRISE...AS WELL AS ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY SUCH AS KLYH. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH OVERNIGHT...ENTERING SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AROUND SUNRISE AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...HOWEVER WILL NOT SEE ANY MAJOR DROP IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. AS SUCH... EXPECT AN AFTERNOON CU FIELD TO DEVELOP WITH BASES IN THE 4KFT TO 6KFT RANGE. ALSO EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO PUT MORE THAN VICINITY MENTION IN THE TAFS. ANY RAINFALL THAT PASSES OVER THE AIRPORTS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...AND WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1SM FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH DURING LATE EVENING...BUT EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST CAUSING WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO VEER MORE NORTHEASTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. EXTENDED AVIATION... VFR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INLAND FROM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE EXCEPTION FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE WEST...WHERE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INCLUDING LOCAL BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. RETURN OF WARM AND MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/WERT NEAR TERM...JH/KK/NF SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...JH/NF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
104 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 100 AM EDT THURSDAY... MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...BASICALLY TWEAKING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO BASED ON LATEST OBSERVED TRENDS. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS THE WESTERN RIDGES...BUT QUICKLY DRY UP IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE WEST. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... SURFACE TROUGH HAS WORKED INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING WITH MOST SHOWERS NOW EAST OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL FAINT SURFACE COOL FRONT TO THE NW. WESTERLY FLOW IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE HAS ALSO ACTED TO LIMIT ADDED INSTABILITY AND LIFT WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHRA SEEN UPSTREAM. SOME OF THIS COVERAGE COULD SLIDE INTO THE FAR NW ZONES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT OVERALL APPEARS MOST WILL GO MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS DEWPOINTS FALL A BIT AND WINDS TURN NW. THUS HAVE REMOVED MOST POPS PER THE LATEST HRRR EXCEPT FOR THE UPSLOPE NW WHERE A SHOWER OR TWO COULD OCCUR THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES BUT EVEN THAT APPEARS IFFY. ALSO DECREASED CLOUD COVER SOONER WITH PC TO MOSTLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF THE UPSLOPE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND BEEFED UP FOG COVERAGE ESPCLY SE WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURRED. LOW TEMPS AGAIN IN THE 60S EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER TONIGHT WESTERN VALLEYS GIVEN SOME DRYING BEFORE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPS. ON THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS TO SPREAD SOUTH. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ALONG WITH UPSLOPE NW FLOW. WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... OVERALL MODELS SIMILAR IN HAVING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF US THU NIGHT-FRIDAY. SFC HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME...WITH SFC FLOW TURNING MORE EAST. DRIER AIR WILL START TO FADE THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...DUE TO INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE. NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD...BUT GIVEN SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LVLS AND HIGHER PWATS...THINK THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPS FOLLOWED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS WITH LOWS ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THU NIGHT IF CLOUDS ARE LESS OVER THE MTNS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. LIGHT EAST FLOW AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT HIGHS FROM BEING TOO WARM FRI BUT STILL 80S CWA WIDE...EXCEPT 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES FRI NIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 60S MTNS TO UPPER 60S EAST. SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR ON HIGHS BUT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF MORE SUN OCCURS. GOING WITH 80S CWA WIDE...LOWER 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 EAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 110 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... YOU CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME ACROSS OUR AREA THIS PERIOD. MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN RESPECT TO UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN U.S. BUT OVERALL APPEARS THE VIRGINIAS AND NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE STUCK IN AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST WED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BACKDOOR TOWARD THE NRN CWA BY MIDWEEK. OVERALL...DECIDED TO CUT POPS BACK FROM LIKELY TO CHANCE GIVEN LACK OF ANY REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM SYNOPTICALLY THIS PERIOD. STILL SOME FOLKS WILL GET RAINED AND STORMED ON AT SOME POINT DURING THIS TIME. BUT GENERALLY EXPECT YOUR USUAL SCATTERING OF STORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNINGS. MODELS DO FAVOR MOISTURE STAYING RAMPED UP WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE. EXPECT MUGGY NIGHTS AND VERY WARM/HOT HUMID DAYS. WITH MOISTURE CONTENT STAYING ELEVATED THINK HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS OR JUST ABOVE. STILL THE HUMIDITY WILL ADD TO THE HEAT INDEX FACTOR BY A FEW DEGREES. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 640 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF KDAN WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHRA NEARING KLYH WHICH SHOULD AFFECT THAT VICINITY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHER ISOLATED SHRA MAY DROP SE TOWARD KLWB AND KBLF...OTRW PUNCH OF WEST WINDS BEHIND THE WEAK EASTERN SURFACE TROF AXIS WILL KEEP VFR FOR THE MOST PART AND WITHOUT MANY ADDED SHRA THIS EVENING. TROF LOOKS TO BE CLEAR OF ALL SITES AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE WEST FOLLOWED BY THE TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DOWNSLOPE AND CLEARING TO KROA/KLYH/KDAN BUT UPSLOPE AND CLOUDS TO KBCB/KLWB/KBLF. KBCB WILL BE LEAST AFFECTED BUT BELIEVE KBLF AND KLWB WILL HAVE LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT AND THEY WILL PERSIST FOR A BIT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AT SITES THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL OVER THE WEST. FEEL THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG WILL BE BLUE RIDGE WEST WITH MORE ISOLATED PATCHY NATURE POSSIBLE AT KLYH/KDAN WHERE RAINFALL WAS LIGHT OR PASSED NEARBY. THEREFORE KEEPING IN THE IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS AT BOTH KBLF/KLWB AND INCLUDING MVFR AT KBCB WITH A BRIEF MVFR TEMPO AT KLYH/KDAN. THINGS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BY MID MORNING THURSDAY AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON NW WINDS AT 7-15 KTS ALLOWING A RETURN TO VFR FOR MOST SPOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT OCNL 4-6K FT CU CIGS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONVECTION LOOKS ISOLATED AT BEST SO KEEPING OUT MENTION ACROSS THE TERMINALS. EXTENDED AVIATION... VFR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INLAND FROM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE EXCEPTION FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE WEST...WHERE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INCLUDING LOCAL BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. RETURN OF WARM AND MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH/WERT NEAR TERM...JH/NF SHORT TERM...WP LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...JH/MBS/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
332 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM COULD CREEP INTO SOUTHWEST WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON THE COVERAGE OVER THE MKX AREA COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM LATE EVENING TO JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WEST OF MADISON AND FOND DU LAC. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE TO 925MB FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET... ALONG SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED...AS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL HANG OUT OVER IA/IL THROUGH TONIGHT. CAPE AND SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED...AROUND 600 J/KG OR LESS...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG STORMS. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING UP INTO MN AND WESTERN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDS ALMOST ALL THE WAY TO THE LAKE IN SOUTHERN WI BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS /SCATTERED COVERAGE/ WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM MADISON AND WEST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AS CAPE...SHEAR... MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE LIMITED. WE MAY SEE THE LOW CLOUDS RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEBCAMS SHOW AN AREA OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HOVERING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. RACINE AND KENOSHA WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS FOR DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. LIGHT FOG WITH AROUND 4 MILE VISIBILITY IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION. .FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE EAST OF US...WHILE A RATHER DEEP TROF WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WE/LL BE STUCK UNDER A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH WEAK RIPPLES POTENTIALLY ROLLING THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF WISCONSIN AND WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS LINGER INTO THE EVENING ON FRIDAY...THEN DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN AS WE HEAT UP ON SATURDAY AND WARM AIR RETURNS WITH THAT WARM FRONT...STILL RATHER SMALL POPS. .SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THIS COULD BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THE ARRIVAL OF A RATHER POTENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF...WHILE AT THE SURFACE WE REMAIN UNDER A VERY MOIST AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS SHOULD BRING IN A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY...LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEIR STRENGTH WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED. ON SUNDAY...WE/LL SEE THE COLD FRONT COME THROUGH WITHIN A VERY HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...ONCE THE STORMS CLEAR OUT IN THE MORNING...THE COLUMN REALLY DRIES OUT. WE/LL HAVE TO SEE IF WE CAN MOISTEN THINGS UP A BIT MORE OR ALL THAT CAPE MAY GO TO WASTE. .MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. WE/LL HAVE A MEANDERING FRONT IN THE AREA WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROLLING THROUGH AS LARGE SCALE TROF DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MORE OF A FACTOR HERE AND WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. .TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. WE TRANSITION INTO A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STILL SOME DIURNAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH LESS OF A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE MORE STABLE REGIME EXPECTED. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP FROM MADISON TO MONROE TO FOND DU LAC AND WEST THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. NOT EXPECTING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY DRIFT INLAND OVER MAINLY RACINE AND KENOSHA TONIGHT. MILWAUKEE HAS A RISK FOR FOG...BUT LOW STRATUS APPEARS TO BE THE GREATER RISK AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...AS MKE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS/FOG AREA. LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR VSBY IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT. WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ON FRIDAY...THERE IS A RISK THAT ANY LINGERING LAKE FOG/STRATUS WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO MILWAUKEE FRIDAY MORNING. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG FOR THE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEBCAMS SHOW AN AREA OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HOVERING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. A CALL TO THE KENOSHA COAST GUARD INDICATED LOW CLOUDS IN THAT AREA RATHER THAN FOG. HOWEVER...A WEB CAM AT WINTHROP HARBOR IL INDICATED FOG. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT. INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ON FRIDAY COULD BRING FOG BACK NORTHWARD FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WIND POINT TO NORTH POINT LIGHT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
607 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG OVER OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS STRATUS DECK WAS ADVECTING WESTWARD AND EXPANDING AS EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE OVER THE AREA. LOOK FOR THIS FOG AND STRATUS TO PUSH INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. WE SHOULD SEE THE STRATUS START TO SLOW IN ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES OVER THE HIGHWAY 52 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA. THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGETOPS. THE STRATUS AND WILL GRADUALLY MIX AND DISSIPATE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA WILL BE IN PLACE. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CAPE BUILDS THIS AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS. THE NAM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNAL FOR A NON SUPERCELL TORNADO NEAR THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN IT PUSHES THIS SIGNAL NORTHEAST AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST BACK INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE BIG QUESTION TODAY IS HOW MUCH CAPE CAN WE BUILD. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SPREADING IN FROM THE THE WEST OFF OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN NEBRASKA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES STARTS TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS A TROUGH DIVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL CREATE AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A COUPLE OF VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO MAKE A TURN SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WITHOUT A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT IF THEY DEVELOP AT ALL. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH STAYS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. 925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT STARTS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES START TO COOL FRIDAY EVENING WE SHOULD STABILIZE AND SEE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPER OFF. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ON FRIDAY AS A MOIST AIRMASS MOVES IN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 1.5 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH THEN MAKES AN EASTWARD PUSH ON SATURDAY WITH 925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT EDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER RIVER SATURDAY MORNING THEN IT INCREASES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4 KM AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.5 TO 1.9. THERE ISN/T A FRONT IN THE AREA FOR THE STORMS TO FOCUS ON BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OUT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL CREATE HYDROLOGY CONCERNS FOR THE LOCAL AREA. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THIS FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY CLEARS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR THEN STARTS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT DIVE INTO THE AREA. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH WILL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVER FROM THE CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS/ECMWF SAY WE WILL RECOVER AND INCREASE OUR 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR TO 35 TO 45 KTS...POSSIBLY EVEN 50 KTS OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB INTO THE 1700 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE WEST OR IN WESTERN SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE SHEAR BEING MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER EAST OF THE BOUNDARY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...LINEAR STRUCTURES WOULD MOST LIKELY BE THE CONVECTIVE MODE. SOME DETAILS TO SORT OUT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE...WITH HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS ALL POSSIBLE. DIFFICULT TO SAY IF THERE WOULD BE TORNADO POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON FORECAST MODEL TRENDS THE NEXT FEW RUNS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 BAND OF STRATUS AND FOG HAS WORKED WEST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO KLSE THIS MORNING WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT THE 26.09Z RAP AND 26.06Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING...BOTH MODELS SHOW THIS LIFTING/DISSIPATING FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THIS DECK COVERS MUCH OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WITH A SOUTHEAST FLOW...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT IT WILL DISSIPATE AS QUICKLY AS THE MODELS SUGGEST. HAVE OPTED TO CLEAR THE FOG OUT BY MID MORNING BUT HUNG ON TO THE MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL ALMOST 18Z. CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS BAD AT KRST WHERE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN OVERHEAD ALL NIGHT. WILL SHOW THE MVFR FOG LIFTING THERE BY MID MORNING WITH THE STRATUS CLOUDS STAYING TO THE WEST. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND EXPECT TO SEE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS TODAY IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY. SOME OF THESE COULD GET CLOSE TO KRST AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A VCSH FOR THIS ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF EARLY IN THE EVENING ALLOWING THE SKIES TO SCATTER OUT FOR A WHILE. SOME INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS THAT JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TO BRING BACK A VFR CEILING TO BOTH TAF SITES. COULD ALSO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK HAS LED TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM THE TWIN CITIES MN TO DUBUQUE IA. SHRA/TSRA ARE IN THE FCST TODAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/ TSRA AND HEAVIER RAINFALL RETURNS FOR LATER SAT THRU MON AS A FEED OF VERY MOIST AND WARM AIR INCREASES INTO THE REGION...AHEAD OF A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SFC FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AS DETAILS OF THE WEEKEND HEAVY RAIN THREAT BECOME CLEARER...WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE AN ESF AND OTHER HYDRO PRODUCTS CONCERNING THE RISK OF MORE FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION...04 HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1115 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 832 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014 BULK OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE CWFA LATE THIS EVENING. STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS STILL ONGOING OVR CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES ALONG WITH WK SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF CHEYENNE. HAVE TWEAKED PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS OVR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HAVE COMPLETELY REMOVED MENTION AFTER 10 PM. COULD BE A TAD EARLY...BUT THE DRYING TREND WILL REMAIN INTACT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. IN AN EARLIER UPDATE...CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. INITIAL LOOK AT 00Z NAM OUTPUT CONTINUE TO BE POINT TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014 AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE RIDING EAST ACROSS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS FEATURE WAS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROBUST CONVECTION ALONG AND TO THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILE WAS MODEST AT 30-40 KT COMBINED WITH SBCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS OBSERVED JUST WEST OF CHEYENNE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SEVERAL STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST WY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST INTO THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE EARLY THIS EVENING PER THE HRRR MODEL. A SEVERE TSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT FOR ALL BUT CARBON COUNTY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER MODES WILL BE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL FUNNEL CLOUDS AND EVEN A WEAK TORNADO IN THE VICINITY OF BOUNDARY MERGERS. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING. COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW MIST OR LIGHT FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY FOR THE PLAINS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. LOOKING AT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT. SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LAYING ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE WY-NE BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDING DATA SHOWS THE 700-850MB THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY /SBCAPES 2500-3500 J/KG/ ALONG AND EAST OF THE WY-NE BORDER...DEPICTED BY SPC/S DAY TWO SLIGHT RISK AREA. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. WEAKER CONVECTION MAY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT NORTH OF A DOUGLAS TO ALLIANCE LINE WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROVIDING MORE INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. RISK FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...WITH ISOLATED STRONG TSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLE. UNDER THE PRESENCE OF THE THERMAL RIDGE THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. 700MB TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM 15C THURSDAY TO 8C FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014 FAIRLY QUIET IN THE LONG RANGE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. MODELS SHOW A PLEASANT WEEKEND SETTING UP FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED TSTORM NORTH OF A LINE FROM DOUGLAS TO ALLIANCE NEBRASKA...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS A COOL FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...BUT IT WILL STILL BE WARM. AS WITH MOST CASES OF FROPA...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MONDAY EVENING...SO KEPT POP AROUND 20 PERCENT. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014 VFR OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER FAR SE WY AND MOVING EAST INTO THURS EVENING...PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR AND TURBULENCE...OTHERWISE VFR. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014 MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE SOME WETTING RAINFALL...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AT 10 TO 15 PERCENT. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES ALONG WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HAHN SHORT TERM...JAMSKI LONG TERM...TJT AVIATION...RUBIN FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
402 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .DISCUSSION... 355 AM CDT MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES WITH WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN GRADUAL COOLING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE WEATHER FOR THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY...WITH SIGNS OF WARMER WEATHER RETURNING OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RATHER INDISTINCT SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITHIN BROAD SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND DEW POINTS OF 65-70 IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM 06Z RAP DEPICTING LITTLE/NO CAP AND MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BY MID/LATE MORNING. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FOCUS SUGGESTS ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS NOTED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING HOWEVER...WITH SOME PERSISTENT WEAK RADAR RETURNS VICINITY KBMI EVIDENCE OF VORT. PRESENCE OF THIS WEAK WAVE AND EARLY DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING WITH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA PERHAPS MORE FAVORED GIVEN TRACK OF VORT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/EML SEEN IN UPSTREAM TOP/SGF 00Z SOUNDINGS WILL APPROACH LATER IN THE DAY PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS... WHICH MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE CAPPING BY AFTERNOON WHICH ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA MAY LIMIT COVERAGE AT THAT TIME...THOUGH DIURNAL PEAK HEATING WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A FEW SCATTERED STORMS TO CONTINUE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.7 INCHES. A GREATER CHANCE OF MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE PROPAGATES FROM THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MODEST ORGANIZED HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS MODESTLY INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON 30-35 KT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP OFFSET POOR DIURNAL TIMING...THOUGH HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH LOWER RANGE OF GUIDANCE POPS WITH HIGH CHANCE/50 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE LATE NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING PERIOD. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A PONTIAC TO GARY LINE...AND LOWERED POPS TO A SLIGHT 20 PERCENT NORTHWEST OF IT. LARGE SCALE FORCING DECREASES BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE MLCAPE WITH LITTLE/NO CAP ACROSS THE REGION. GFS AND LOCAL WRF RUN DEPICT A STRONGER CAP WHICH APPEARS A BIT MORE LIKELY GIVEN HEIGHT RISES...SUPPORTING LOW/NIL POPS ACROSS NORTHERN IL FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS ACROSS PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RESULTING INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS AREAS TO OUR WEST. OUR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION AND SURFACE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY. GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED DEEP SHEAR WITH STRONGER JET ALOFT...AND INSTABILITY FED BY POOLING OF HIGHER DEW POINT AIR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...AS DEPICTED IN SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE WAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOL WITH TEMPS FRIDAY...AND IT APPEARS THIS BIAS CONTINUES TODAY...SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS NUMBERS BASED ON LOCAL 850 HPA TEMP CLIMO...THOUGH INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY COMPLICATE THINGS A BIT. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE VERY WARM...LOW 90S IN SPOTS...DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. ONCE COLD FRONT CLEARS AREA MONDAY NIGHT...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND SETS UP FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES NOTED TUES-WED WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS THOSE DAYS...BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY THE 4TH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLEASANT HOLIDAY WEATHER WITH TEMPS NEAR 80 AND 70S NEAR THE LAKE. LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. RATZER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z... * ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MID MORNING THRU EARLY EVENING. * GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS MID MORNING THRU SUNSET. CMS //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING TIMING AND LOCATION WITH SOME CONSENSUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AND THEN LIFT NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MI AND INDIANA. ITS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY COULD BE DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS 15Z-17Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL MENTION IN THIS FORECAST. A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS WAVE WOULD THEN ALLOW FOR LATER DEVELOPMENT...CLOSER TO THE TIMING OF THE CURRENT PROB GROUP AND THEREFORE MADE NO CHANGES. COMPLEX OF STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS LATER TODAY WILL CONTINUE EAST TONIGHT AND LIKELY BE DECAYING AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST IL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT TIMING WOULD SUGGEST ARRIVAL AFTER CURRENT END TIME OF THIS FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE FOR ACTIVITY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IS MEDIUM. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15KT RANGE BY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEEN RANGE DEVELOPING BY MID/LATE MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST IL AND RFD...BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER/PRECIP COVERAGE. CMS //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z... * MEDIUM FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA FROM MID MORNING THRU EARLY EVENING...LOW FOR COVERAGE AND TIMING. * MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CMS //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z... SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CHC OF TSRA AND MVFR CIGS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR AND DRY. BEACHLER && .MARINE... 240 AM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA TO KANSAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH FORMING A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN AS THIS OCCURS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING JAMES BAY TUESDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...ON MONDAY. WINDS THEN SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE BUT WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT HAZE/PATCHY DENSE FOG WORDING. CMS && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
355 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .DISCUSSION... 355 AM CDT MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES WITH WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN GRADUAL COOLING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE WEATHER FOR THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY...WITH SIGNS OF WARMER WEATHER RETURNING OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RATHER INDISTINCT SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITHIN BROAD SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND DEW POINTS OF 65-70 IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM 06Z RAP DEPICTING LITTLE/NO CAP AND MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BY MID/LATE MORNING. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FOCUS SUGGESTS ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS NOTED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING HOWEVER...WITH SOME PERSISTENT WEAK RADAR RETURNS VICINITY KBMI EVIDENCE OF VORT. PRESENCE OF THIS WEAK WAVE AND EARLY DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING WITH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA PERHAPS MORE FAVORED GIVEN TRACK OF VORT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/EML SEEN IN UPSTREAM TOP/SGF 00Z SOUNDINGS WILL APPROACH LATER IN THE DAY PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS... WHICH MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE CAPPING BY AFTERNOON WHICH ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA MAY LIMIT COVERAGE AT THAT TIME...THOUGH DIURNAL PEAK HEATING WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A FEW SCATTERED STORMS TO CONTINUE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.7 INCHES. A GREATER CHANCE OF MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE PROPAGATES FROM THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MODEST ORGANIZED HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS MODESTLY INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON 30-35 KT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP OFFSET POOR DIURNAL TIMING...THOUGH HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH LOWER RANGE OF GUIDANCE POPS WITH HIGH CHANCE/50 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE LATE NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING PERIOD. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A PONTIAC TO GARY LINE...AND LOWERED POPS TO A SLIGHT 20 PERCENT NORTHWEST OF IT. LARGE SCALE FORCING DECREASES BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE MLCAPE WITH LITTLE/NO CAP ACROSS THE REGION. GFS AND LOCAL WRF RUN DEPICT A STRONGER CAP WHICH APPEARS A BIT MORE LIKELY GIVEN HEIGHT RISES...SUPPORTING LOW/NIL POPS ACROSS NORTHERN IL FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS ACROSS PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RESULTING INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS AREAS TO OUR WEST. OUR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION AND SURFACE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY. GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED DEEP SHEAR WITH STRONGER JET ALOFT...AND INSTABILITY FED BY POOLING OF HIGHER DEW POINT AIR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...AS DEPICTED IN SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE WAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOL WITH TEMPS FRIDAY...AND IT APPEARS THIS BIAS CONTINUES TODAY...SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS NUMBERS BASED ON LOCAL 850 HPA TEMP CLIMO...THOUGH INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY COMPLICATE THINGS A BIT. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE VERY WARM...LOW 90S IN SPOTS...DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. ONCE COLD FRONT CLEARS AREA MONDAY NIGHT...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND SETS UP FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES NOTED TUES-WED WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS THOSE DAYS...BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY THE 4TH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLEASANT HOLIDAY WEATHER WITH TEMPS NEAR 80 AND 70S NEAR THE LAKE. LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. RATZER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MID MORNING THRU EARLY EVENING. * GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS MID MORNING THRU SUNSET. CMS //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING TIMING AND LOCATION WITH SOME CONSENSUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AND THEN LIFT NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MI AND INDIANA. ITS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY COULD BE DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS 15Z-17Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL MENTION IN THIS FORECAST. A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS WAVE WOULD THEN ALLOW FOR LATER DEVELOPMENT...CLOSER TO THE TIMING OF THE CURRENT PROB GROUP AND THEREFORE MADE NO CHANGES. COMPLEX OF STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS LATER TODAY WILL CONTINUE EAST TONIGHT AND LIKELY BE DECAYING AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST IL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT TIMING WOULD SUGGEST ARRIVAL AFTER CURRENT END TIME OF THIS FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE FOR ACTIVITY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IS MEDIUM. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15KT RANGE BY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEEN RANGE DEVELOPING BY MID/LATE MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST IL AND RFD...BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER/PRECIP COVERAGE. CMS //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * MEDIUM FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA FROM MID MORNING THRU EARLY EVENING...LOW FOR COVERAGE AND TIMING. * MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CMS //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z... SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CHC OF TSRA AND MVFR CIGS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR AND DRY. BEACHLER && .MARINE... 240 AM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA TO KANSAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH FORMING A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN AS THIS OCCURS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING JAMES BAY TUESDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...ON MONDAY. WINDS THEN SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE BUT WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT HAZE/PATCHY DENSE FOG WORDING. CMS && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
240 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .DISCUSSION... 325 PM CDT MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY FOR STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAVE FINALLY EXITED TO THE NORTH OF THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE TODAY AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR A PUSH OF WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE LAST OF THIS STRATUS SHIELD CAN BE NOTED PUSHING INTO THE MILWAUKEE AREA...WITH ALL LOCAL WEBCAMS SHOWING VERY LITTLE NO LOW CLOUDS OR FOG AT ALL AT THIS TIME. WHAT IS PRESENT THOUGH IS HAZE AND IS MORE PREDOMINANT ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE SHORE. THIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FEATURE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH ANY DENSE FOG THAT REDEVELOPS LATER THIS EVENING TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. ABOUT THE ONLY AREA WHICH COULD OBSERVE THIS REDEVELOPING FOG IS FAR NORTHEAST LAKE COUNTY ILLINOIS BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW...HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA TODAY...MUCH WARMER AND MORE MOIST CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED SOUTH OF IT. TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT ARE IN THE MID UPPER 80S AND WITH TEMPS TO THE NORTH REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING THIS WARM FRONT SLOWLY TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD OVER FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...BUT IS OBSERVING SOME LAKE INFLUENCE RESISTANCE. TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM CHICAGO NORTHWARD MAY BE A LITTLE TRICKY IN THE NEAR TERM WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS MEANDERING BOUNDARY BEING KEY. WITH IT ALMOST ON THE DOORSTEPS OF DOWNTOWN CHICAGO...ITS POSSIBLE FOR THE THE CURRENT 70 DEGREE TEMPS BEING REPORTED TO RAPIDLY JUMP INTO THE 80S HERE OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS WITH SIMILAR TRENDS POSSIBLE NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH THE LAKE INFLUENCE COULD EASILY DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ESPECIALLY AS SYNOPTIC SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS SUBSIDE...WITH THE 70S MAINTAINING IN THESE AREAS. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THIS COOLER SOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ONCE AGAIN KEEPING THESE 70 DEGREE TEMPS IN PLACE. ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS REMAINING LIGHT AND BRIEF AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL SURFACE FOCUS AND WITH WEAKLY FORCED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OWING TO WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. ONLY EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK FLOW/LOW BULK SHEAR VALUES IN PLACE. EXPECT MOST AREAS ACROSS THE CWA HAVING SIMILAR LOW CHANCES FOR THIS BRIEF DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE THIS CONVECTION DIMINISHES IN THE EVENING. ANY BETTER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WELL WEST OF THE CWA SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS IT DIMINISHES TONIGHT...BUT WITH SOME GUIDANCE TRYING TO INDICATE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THE APPROACHING WEAK WAVE WILL CONTINUE EAST/NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TRYING TO PERSIST. WITH THE ONGOING ISOLATED CONVECTION PARTIALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...FEEL THAT THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING IT AND HAVE THE ENTIRE CWA DRY LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. SIMILAR SITUATION TO UNFOLD ON SATURDAY WITH WEAK ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WILL LIKELY OBSERVE QUICK CU DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEST FLOW/SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT...DONT ANTICIPATE ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS BUT WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL THE MAIN THREAT. SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER IOWA WILL SWING EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD RIDE VEERING LLJ INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. DO INCREASE POPS INTO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO HIGH CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT LIMITED POPS THERE WITH UNCERTAINTY TO A POSSIBLE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THIS TIME. IF THIS DOES NOT DIMINISH...THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AS THE LLJ BECOMES MORE ORIENTED TOWARD NORTHERN ILLINOIS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH REGARDS TO THE END RESULT OF THE PRECIP THAT COULD POSSIBLY MOVE INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS SATURDAY NIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...COULD SEE ANY STORMS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT TO CONTINUE PUSHING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES EAST. SO MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY MORNING BUT DO LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE DEPARTURE THE BETTER DEVELOPMENT. DID LEAVE SOME MENTION OF CHANCE THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ONLY OWING TO REDEVELOPING POP UP CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT WEST OF THE CWA. ONCE AGAIN UNCERTAINTIES OF EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST REMAIN BUT WITH ANY COMPLEX EITHER APPROACHING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ANY DIMINISHING TREND THAT OCCURS OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL EITHER OCCUR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA OR ON TOP OF THE CWA. EITHER WAY...CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER INCREASE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAVORED AT SOME POINT ESPECIALLY GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RODRIGUEZ && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MID MORNING THRU EARLY EVENING. * GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS MID MORNING THRU SUNSET. CMS //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING TIMING AND LOCATION WITH SOME CONSENSUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AND THEN LIFT NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MI AND INDIANA. ITS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY COULD BE DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS 15Z-17Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL MENTION IN THIS FORECAST. A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS WAVE WOULD THEN ALLOW FOR LATER DEVELOPMENT...CLOSER TO THE TIMING OF THE CURRENT PROB GROUP AND THEREFORE MADE NO CHANGES. COMPLEX OF STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS LATER TODAY WILL CONTINUE EAST TONIGHT AND LIKELY BE DECAYING AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST IL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT TIMING WOULD SUGGEST ARRIVAL AFTER CURRENT END TIME OF THIS FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE FOR ACTIVITY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IS MEDIUM. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15KT RANGE BY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEEN RANGE DEVELOPING BY MID/LATE MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST IL AND RFD...BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER/PRECIP COVERAGE. CMS //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * MEDIUM FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA FROM MID MORNING THRU EARLY EVENING...LOW FOR COVERAGE AND TIMING. * MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CMS //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z... SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CHC OF TSRA AND MVFR CIGS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR AND DRY. BEACHLER && .MARINE... 240 AM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA TO KANSAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH FORMING A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN AS THIS OCCURS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING JAMES BAY TUESDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...ON MONDAY. WINDS THEN SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE BUT WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT HAZE/PATCHY DENSE FOG WORDING. CMS && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 236 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 235 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014 Fairly boring surface pattern continues across Illinois early this morning, with maybe a hint of a boundary earlier near Champaign having shifted a bit north toward Kankakee. 500 mb analysis does show a weak trough/circulation over the area as well, which has helped some showers linger in the eastern CWA. Main activity was located out over the Plains, near a pair of surface lows over South Dakota and the Oklahoma panhandle. Main forecast challenge continues to be with rain chances over the next few days, particularly on Monday and Monday night, which also stands to be our best chance of severe weather. SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night: Elongated upper wave over the central and southern Plains will be tracking toward the Mississippi Valley this weekend, but flattening out a bit in the process as an upper low develops over southern Manitoba. Ahead of this wave, shower and storm chances will continue to be diurnally driven today, mainly late morning through the afternoon. The air mass will remain juicy, and precipitable waters of 1.8 inches and slow storm movement leading to locally heavy rains again. Mesoscale convective system (MCS) expected to form west of the Mississippi River this evening, then track eastward overnight. The evening models have a fairly sizable spread in how much of this remains intact as it crosses into Illinois, with the Canadian model the most robust, followed by the NAM. The ECMWF is weaker but also slower, with the main thrust arriving Sunday morning. Leaned a bit toward the NAM and brought in some likely PoP`s west of I-55 late Saturday night and east of there Sunday morning. All models are showing good agreement in a drying trend during the afternoon from the west. Started the trend by dropping to slight PoP`s west of I-55 during the afternoon, but this could likely be dropped completely if subsequent model runs continue this trend. Low pressure over Colorado/New Mexico expected to lift northeast into the central Plains by early Monday, and will be drawn ahead of the main wave moving into the upper Mississippi Valley. As opposed to recent trends, there looks to be fairly decent shear moving into the area on Monday, with 0-6km bulk shear around 40 knots across the northwest CWA and CAPE`s of 3000-4000 J/kg or higher. Latest SPC Day3 convective outlook has most of the CWA in a slight risk of severe weather. Line of convection with another MCS expected to develop during the afternoon and move southeast. Main question is whether this arrives soon enough to take advantage of the afternoon heating. The NAM spreads some rain as far east as I-55 during the afternoon, but the other models mostly favor an evening arrival. As such, have limited likely PoP`s during Monday afternoon to northwest of the Illinois River, spreading it southeast toward the I-72 corridor during the evening. Precipitable waters of 2-2.5" expected as this MCS arrives, so will need to watch for flash flood potential by evening across the northwest half of the forecast area. LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday: Welcome pattern shift expected much of the period as a broad trough passes through the Great Lakes and mid-Mississippi Valley. 850 mb temperatures dropping to around 9C by midday Wednesday resulting in surface highs around 80 degrees Wednesday and Thursday. Longer range models showing a heat dome building across the Rockies with amplification of the surface ridge there. Some gradual warming of the temperatures aloft will take place in our area late in the week, but a surface high over the Great Lakes is expected to keep conditions dry during most of this period. Geelhart && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014 Broken mid level clouds 12-15k ft over central IL will continue overnight but may break up later tonight from SW as weakening short wave over west central IL pulls slowly NNE. GFS model shows 700-1500 foot broken to overcast ceilings late tonight until mid morning Sat while NAM model keeps VFR ceilings. HRRR shows clouds below 1K ft developing over eastern IL by CMI after 08Z tonight. Will compromise and have scattered low clouds after 09Z and also have light fog/haze with vsbys 4-6 miles til 14-15Z. Scattered to broken cumulus clouds of 3-4k ft develop late by Sat morning with weak short wave trof over central IL and continue into early Sat evening along with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Added VCSH during midday and early Sat afternoon and also added prob30 group for thunderstorms with MVFR vsbys and ceilings (possibly briefly lower in heavy rain cores) from 20Z-24Z. SSE winds of 4-9 kts overnight to veer south and increase to 10-15 kts by 15Z/10 am Sat with few gusts of 15-20 kts late morning and afternoon. South winds diminish to near 10 kts after sunset Sat and convection and cumulus clouds also diminish around sunset. 07 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1231 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .DISCUSSION... 325 PM CDT MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY FOR STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW STRATUS AND FOG HAVE FINALLY EXITED TO THE NORTH OF THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE TODAY AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR A PUSH OF WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE LAST OF THIS STRATUS SHIELD CAN BE NOTED PUSHING INTO THE MILWAUKEE AREA...WITH ALL LOCAL WEBCAMS SHOWING VERY LITTLE NO LOW CLOUDS OR FOG AT ALL AT THIS TIME. WHAT IS PRESENT THOUGH IS HAZE AND IS MORE PREDOMINANT ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE SHORE. THIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FEATURE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH ANY DENSE FOG THAT REDEVELOPS LATER THIS EVENING TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. ABOUT THE ONLY AREA WHICH COULD OBSERVE THIS REDEVELOPING FOG IS FAR NORTHEAST LAKE COUNTY ILLINOIS BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW...HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA TODAY...MUCH WARMER AND MORE MOIST CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED SOUTH OF IT. TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT ARE IN THE MID UPPER 80S AND WITH TEMPS TO THE NORTH REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING THIS WARM FRONT SLOWLY TRYING TO PUSH NORTHWARD OVER FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...BUT IS OBSERVING SOME LAKE INFLUENCE RESISTANCE. TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM CHICAGO NORTHWARD MAY BE A LITTLE TRICKY IN THE NEAR TERM WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS MEANDERING BOUNDARY BEING KEY. WITH IT ALMOST ON THE DOORSTEPS OF DOWNTOWN CHICAGO...ITS POSSIBLE FOR THE THE CURRENT 70 DEGREE TEMPS BEING REPORTED TO RAPIDLY JUMP INTO THE 80S HERE OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS WITH SIMILAR TRENDS POSSIBLE NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH THE LAKE INFLUENCE COULD EASILY DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ESPECIALLY AS SYNOPTIC SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS SUBSIDE...WITH THE 70S MAINTAINING IN THESE AREAS. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THIS COOLER SOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ONCE AGAIN KEEPING THESE 70 DEGREE TEMPS IN PLACE. ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS REMAINING LIGHT AND BRIEF AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL SURFACE FOCUS AND WITH WEAKLY FORCED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OWING TO WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. ONLY EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK FLOW/LOW BULK SHEAR VALUES IN PLACE. EXPECT MOST AREAS ACROSS THE CWA HAVING SIMILAR LOW CHANCES FOR THIS BRIEF DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE THIS CONVECTION DIMINISHES IN THE EVENING. ANY BETTER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WELL WEST OF THE CWA SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AS IT DIMINISHES TONIGHT...BUT WITH SOME GUIDANCE TRYING TO INDICATE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THE APPROACHING WEAK WAVE WILL CONTINUE EAST/NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TRYING TO PERSIST. WITH THE ONGOING ISOLATED CONVECTION PARTIALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...FEEL THAT THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING IT AND HAVE THE ENTIRE CWA DRY LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. SIMILAR SITUATION TO UNFOLD ON SATURDAY WITH WEAK ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WILL LIKELY OBSERVE QUICK CU DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE MORNING BEFORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEST FLOW/SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT...DONT ANTICIPATE ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS BUT WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS STILL THE MAIN THREAT. SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER IOWA WILL SWING EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD RIDE VEERING LLJ INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. DO INCREASE POPS INTO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO HIGH CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT LIMITED POPS THERE WITH UNCERTAINTY TO A POSSIBLE DIMINISHING TREND DURING THIS TIME. IF THIS DOES NOT DIMINISH...THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AS THE LLJ BECOMES MORE ORIENTED TOWARD NORTHERN ILLINOIS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH REGARDS TO THE END RESULT OF THE PRECIP THAT COULD POSSIBLY MOVE INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS SATURDAY NIGHT. THAT BEING SAID...COULD SEE ANY STORMS THAT DO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT TO CONTINUE PUSHING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES EAST. SO MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY MORNING BUT DO LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE DEPARTURE THE BETTER DEVELOPMENT. DID LEAVE SOME MENTION OF CHANCE THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ONLY OWING TO REDEVELOPING POP UP CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT WEST OF THE CWA. ONCE AGAIN UNCERTAINTIES OF EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST REMAIN BUT WITH ANY COMPLEX EITHER APPROACHING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ANY DIMINISHING TREND THAT OCCURS OUT AHEAD OF IT WILL EITHER OCCUR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA OR ON TOP OF THE CWA. EITHER WAY...CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER INCREASE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAVORED AT SOME POINT ESPECIALLY GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. RODRIGUEZ && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MID MORNING THRU EARLY EVENING. * GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS MID MORNING THRU SUNSET. CMS //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING TIMING AND LOCATION WITH SOME CONSENSUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AND THEN LIFT NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MI AND INDIANA. ITS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY COULD BE DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS 15Z-17Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL MENTION IN THIS FORECAST. A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS WAVE WOULD THEN ALLOW FOR LATER DEVELOPMENT...CLOSER TO THE TIMING OF THE CURRENT PROB GROUP AND THEREFORE MADE NO CHANGES. COMPLEX OF STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS LATER TODAY WILL CONTINUE EAST TONIGHT AND LIKELY BE DECAYING AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST IL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT TIMING WOULD SUGGEST ARRIVAL AFTER CURRENT END TIME OF THIS FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE FOR ACTIVITY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IS MEDIUM. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10-15KT RANGE BY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEEN RANGE DEVELOPING BY MID/LATE MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST IL AND RFD...BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER/PRECIP COVERAGE. CMS //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * MEDIUM FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA FROM MID MORNING THRU EARLY EVENING...LOW FOR COVERAGE AND TIMING. * MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CMS //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z... SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CHC OF TSRA AND MVFR CIGS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR AND DRY. BEACHLER && .MARINE... 211 PM CDT PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN INITIALLY IS WITH DENSE FOG POTENTIAL. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG/LOW STRATUS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVING. WHILE HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN THE AMBIENT AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER RAISING DOUBTS ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL BE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. WILL BE ALLOWING DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 3 PM AS SCHEDULED WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LINGERING DENSE FOG NOW CONFINED TO WISCONSIN NEARSHORE WATERS. WHILE HAZE AND POTENTIALLY SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG (MAINLY NORTH) WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...FIGURE THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROBABLY KEEP COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG MORE LIMITED. IZZI && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1152 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 900 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014 Forecast again on track tonight and main update is to remove the evening period as isolated showers and thunderstorms have dissipated around sunset. Partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight with muggy lows getting close to dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70F. South to southeast winds 5 to 10 mph over central IL and light in southeast IL. Weakening short wave over sw IL will lift slowly nne across IL overnight, but mostly dry conditions expected with convection more diurnally driven during the afternoon and early evening hours. More cloud cover tonight especially at mid levels along with a bit higher SSE winds over central IL should keep fog from forming. If southeast IL can clear out later tonight some patchy ground fog could form where winds are light. 07 && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014 Broken mid level clouds 12-15k ft over central IL will continue overnight but may break up later tonight from sw as weakening short wave over west central IL pulls slowly nne. GFS model shows 700-1500 foot broken to overcast ceings late tonight until mid morning Sat while NAM model keeps VFR ceilings. HRRR shows clouds below 1K ft developing over eastern IL by CMI after 08Z tonight. Will compromise and have scattered low clouds after 09Z and also have light fog/haze with vsbys 4-6 miles til 14-15Z. Scattered to broken cumulus clouds of 3-4k ft develop late by Sat morning with weak short wave trof over central IL and continue into early Sat evening along with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Added VCSH during midday and early Sat afternoon and also added prob30 group for thunderstorms with MVFR vsbys and ceilings (possibly briefly lower in heavy rain cores) from 20Z-24Z. SSE winds of 4-9 kts overnight to veer south and increase to 10-15 kts by 15Z/10 am Sat with few gusts of 15-20 kts late morning and afternoon. South winds diminish to near 10 kts after sunset Sat and convection and cumulus clouds also diminish around sunset. 07 && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 236 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014 SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday: Another day of scattered diurnal convection continues to fire over and in the vicinity of central and southeast Illinois. Two short waves are evident on water vapor imagery, one centered over Arkansas and the other over Iowa, are helping to focus the convection, but weak shear profiles over the forecast area should keep coverage pretty minimal here. Expect any showers/storms locally to rapidly die off toward sunset, a common theme for us the last several days. A weak short wave is progged to be in our vicinity for Saturday, which may help to focus the daily convection a little more than today. However, shear profiles are still expected to be rather weak (bulk shear less than 20 kts). Instability will be a little better than today, with CAPE values as high as 2000 j/kg forecast during peak heating. A stronger short wave is progged to come through late Saturday night into early Sunday. This feature should be accompanied by a MCS which appears most likely to appear here late night Saturday/early morning Sunday. The balance of Sunday should end up fairly quiet behind this system. Finally, our strongest short wave of the next several days is expected to push into the area late Monday into Monday night. There is some model spread in the timing of this wave, with the NAM currently coming in a few hours faster than the model consensus. The timing of this wave/surface cold front will be important to the severe storm risk. The faster NAM solution would be most favorable for severe storms, with the system arriving closer to peak heating. However, at this point, the NAM is an outlier and tend not to trust it at the end of its forecast range. Also, even within the model consensus, there are disagreements with respect to where the best pre-frontal shear/instability areas will lie. That being said, most model solutions forecast instability during peak heating in excess of 3000 j/kg, and bulk shear values along/ahead of the front in excess of 30 kts. So, it would appear severe storms are certainly possible late Monday into Monday night, but the exact timing and location are unclear. LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday: The cold front should clear the forecast area by early Tuesday if it has not already done so. In the wake of the front, and driving upper wave, at least weakly cyclonic upper flow will be with us for the rest of the work week. However, the position of the trof axis supports high pressure being in place at the surface locally. This pattern appears to be supportive of temperatures trending to the cool side of normal, with some highs in the 70s possible, as well as mostly dry weather. While things could certainly change, model/ensemble agreement is unusually good, providing a higher confidence forecast than we have had lately. BAK && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
415 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014 ...Updated synopsis, short and long term discussions... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 The 00z upper air analysis showed a 90 knot 250 millibar jet extending from Oregon into northeast New Mexico. Broad upper level troughing was in place from the Pacific Northwest into the central and southern High Plains. A shortwave trough was moving across eastern Colorado and New Mexico. Widespread thunderstorm activity was slowly propagating southeast over central and southwest Kansas early this morning. This activity was pushing an outflow boundary south across southwest Kansas. Moist southerly low level flow was riding up over the boundary and helping sustain the thunderstorm complex. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 Latest radar trends show the thunderstorm complex starting to weaken somewhat. RAP 850 wind analysis has indicated a low level jet from the Texas panhandle extending up into far southwest Kansas which has been helping sustain the overnight convection. Latest progs show the low level jet veering through the remainder of the early morning hours which should help usher the complex eastward into central Kansas. Will keep some high chance pops going over central Kansas through the morning hours but the precipitation should come to an end as the mid level shortwave moves east of the region. The models continue to keep the low level boundary lingering in south central Kansas later this afternoon. There could be some additional thunderstorm development later this afternoon/early evening along the boundary if it does get hung up in that area but with the upper level dynamics shifting off to the east, any thunderstorm activity should diminish fairly early this evening with the remainder of the night staying dry. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 Upper level westerly flow lifts into the northern part of the country on Sunday. The westerly flow will result in a surface low pressure trough in the lee of the Rockies. A weak fast moving shortwave trough will push east through the northern plains. This could bring a few showers and thunderstorms to the area around I-70 during the afternoon and evening. A cold front will push south across western Kansas Monday afternoon and night as a strong shortwave moves through the northern Plains. Low level moisture will continue to stream northward into the central Plains and impinge on the front, bringing another round of thunderstorms to much of southwest Kansas. With saturated soil conditions from tonight`s and previous days rains, flood and/or flash flood headlines may be necessary. The models show the front moving far enough south to bring a break in rainfall across Southwest Kansas by Tuesday night into Wednesday. Later in the week, upper level ridging will build from the western states into the central part of the country. We should see a trend toward somewhat warmer temperatures along with continued small chances for thunderstorms through Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 Clusters of thunderstorms will track east across central and southwest Kansas through the early morning hours. Expect variable and gusty winds along with MVFR visibilities in moderate to heavy rain at the TAF sites as the storms move through. Conditions will be improving across the area after 10z as the area of storms moves east. There could be some MVFR visibility reductions in mist around sunrise. While some uncertainty exists on areal coverage and location, there could be additional thunderstorms developing after 21z at Hays and Dodge City. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 88 66 94 72 / 20 20 10 10 GCK 88 65 95 70 / 10 10 10 10 EHA 92 62 100 70 / 10 0 10 10 LBL 91 66 98 73 / 10 10 10 10 HYS 86 66 94 71 / 50 10 20 20 P28 87 69 93 75 / 50 30 10 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gerard SHORT TERM...Gerard LONG TERM...Gerard AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
102 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014 ...Updated aviation discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday) ISSUED AT 1128 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 Later afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected. The best chance for storms will be near the I70 corridor where capping is weaker and there is better moisture convergence. Thermodynamically, the setup is impressive with 3500 J/kg of SBCAPE, 8.5 C/KM lapse rates, and decent boundary layer dewpoints. A few problems with today`s setup though. All the models show backing upper level winds and only about 35 kt of 0-EL shear. This suggests that storm mode tonight will likely be on the HP side. PWATs are forecast to be in the 1.5" range, which is well above normal. This also suggests storms with high precipitation efficiency. Feel the most discrete storms will be up in GLD`s area, where mean flow and boundary layer winds are more orthogonal. There could be an isolated tornado up north, as the HRRR is indicating some updraft helicity. In addition, low level directional and speed shear is not that bad. Given the aforementioned upper level shear, it won`t take long through before you get cold pools and resultant upscale growth, so that should cut down on the tornado chances. Precip will exit the area late tonight. Additional MCS activity is possible tomorrow afternoon, with better moisture convergence and lift along and east of Highway 283. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 The main upper jet and storm track shifts north on Sunday then a northern branch upper trough swings across the Northern and Central Plains late Monday and Monday night with a chance for thunderstorms. Unsettled weather continues in back of the upper trough into Thursday with northwest flow aloft and more chances for showers and thunderstorms. By Friday and upper level ridge is forecast with dry weather for a change. At the surface, a deepening trough of low pressure in the Rockies will give strong southerly winds of 25 to 35 mph on Sunday, with a cold front moving across western Kansas late Monday and winds shifting to the north and gusty. Cooler temps will follow the front as high pressure builds into the Plains with weaker winds into mid next week. Lows will be mild in the 60s and 70s, with highs in the 90s Sunday and Monday, cooling into the 80s Tuesday into Thursday behind the cold front, then back into the 90s by Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 Clusters of thunderstorms will track east across central and southwest Kansas through the early morning hours. Expect variable and gusty winds along with MVFR visibilities in moderate to heavy rain at the TAF sites as the storms move through. Conditions will be improving across the area after 10z as the area of storms moves east. There could be some MVFR visibility reductions in mist around sunrise. While some uncertainty exists on areal coverage and location, there could be additional thunderstorms developing after 21z at Hays and Dodge City. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 67 95 74 91 / 10 10 10 20 GCK 66 97 72 91 / 10 10 10 10 EHA 63 101 70 95 / 0 0 10 20 LBL 67 99 74 95 / 10 0 10 20 HYS 67 95 72 89 / 10 10 10 10 P28 70 94 75 97 / 20 10 10 20 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sugden LONG TERM...Kruse AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
355 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AND A WASHED OUT STATIONARY BOUNDARY STREWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WHILE THE LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOW THE REMAINS OF EARLIER SHOWERS DYING OUT JUST SOUTH OF JKL...ON SATELLITE...A MASS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST...OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND INTO KENTUCKY. THESE CLOUDS ARE HELPING TO KEEP THE FOG TO A MINIMUM SO FAR THIS NIGHT DESPITE THE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL DURING THE PAST DAY. SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...MAKING FOR A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION AND DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE NATION. THE CORE OF THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT BRUSHING PAST THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWERING HEIGHTS A TAD INTO SUNDAY. A FEW WAVES OF ENERGY WILL PASS OVER KENTUCKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE WEAK SOUTHEAST RIDGE. ONE OF THESE IS PASSING THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ANOTHER DECENT ONE WILL PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST OVER KENTUCKY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY SUNDAY. WITH THE MODEL AGREEMENT...FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR THE NEAR TERM. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WARM...HUMID...AND STORMY COUPLE OF DAYS AS THAT WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER EAST KENTUCKY...PWS OVER 1.8 INCHES. THE CONVECTION WILL BE AMPLIFIED BY THE DIURNAL CYCLE...PEAKING LATE EACH AFTERNOON AND LINGERING WELL INTO THE EVENING. THE GRIDS WHERE CREATED WITH THIS IN MIND...MAKING FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY THAN WE SAW ON FRIDAY AND POPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60 PERCENT RANGE. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT GOING AT ALL TIMES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY... BUT PROBABLY NOT TOO EXTENSIVE OR THICK GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. SIMILARLY...THE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY SMALL. AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN THE BCCONSALL THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RIDGE AND VALLEY SPOTS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP PRETTY CLOSE TO THE RATHER WET GFS MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE APPALACHIANS...ALONG WITH A STREAM OF WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE GULF AIR INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY MONDAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...PULLING THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WITH IT. BY OVERNIGHT...LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...AND A BRIEF LULL IN THE SYNOPTIC ACTIVITY...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO REMOVE CONVECTIVE CHANCES ALL TOGETHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS LULL IN THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...THIS WILL SERVE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS AND EVENTUALLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. UNFORTUNATELY...RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL PREVENT ANY QUICK FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH KY. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONVECTIVE CHANCES ONCE MORE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THIS POINT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE EXTENDED DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE RIDGING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND ALLOWING THE SURFACE FEATURES TO FINALLY PROGRESS ALONG THE SAME PATTERN. AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH KY THURSDAY...WINDS WILL HAVE TURNED TO A NRLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL PULL IN A MUCH ANTICIPATED DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. PRECIP CHANCES WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THIS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE MORE NORTHERN FLOW...REACHING THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL TAKE A STRONG HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL TAKE PLACE HOWEVER...WITH GOOD SOLAR RADIATION...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ON THE RISE ONCE MORE. HIGHS WILL REACH BACK UP INTO UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ON THE SAME NOTE...LOSS OF RADIATION OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 DUE TO THE EARLIER SHOWERS AND STORMS...FOG WILL BE A CONCERN AT SME THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT MAY KEEP IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING PREDOMINANT FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME INTO DAWN. ALSO EXPECT SOME IFR OR WORSE FOG WITHIN THE DEEPER VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN...BUT THAT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP THE FOG AT BAY AT SJS AND JKL COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT BETWEEN THE 16 AND 22Z TIME FRAME. HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FOR THIS IN THE TAFS AND ALSO A TEMPO TO MVFR VIS DURING THE FOUR HOUR BLOCK OF BEST CHANCES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1227 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE 4TH OF JULY. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... OUR EYES ARE FIXED ON THE HVY RAFL OCCURRING ACROSS WRN MADISON TO NWRN NELSON. RNK VWP IS MORE REPRESENTATIVE THAN LWX. THIS SHOWS ERLY WINDS TO 10K FT. WHEN I SEE THIS SITUATION I THINK OF THE MAJOR FLDG OF JUN `95. BUT THE LO LVL WINDS ARE MUCH WEAKER TNGT AND NOT XPCTD TO LAST FOR MULTIPLE DAYS LK IN THAT CASE. HRRR SHOWS THIS CONTINUING THRU ARND 10Z AND THEN DIMINISH. THE PROBLEM IS THE RAIN IS FALLING IN A RLTVLY UNINHABITED AREA SO WE ARE NOT RCVG ANY FLD REPORTS. FLSH FLD WRNGS IS IN EFFECT TIL 115 AM...BUT UNLESS THE CELLS SHOW A RAPID WEAKENING WE`LL PRBLY BE XTND THE WRNG. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIPRES RDG...SFC THRU H5...REMAINS IN PLACE THRU SUNDAY. GIVEN THE STBL AMS...WK LAPSE RATES...AND SELY FLOW...THINK THAT THE CSTL PLAIN /E OF THE THE BLURDG/ SHUD HV A NICE DAY. MDL GDNC IN AGREEMENT WRT MAXT IN THE MID 80S. BIGGEST WRINKLE MAY BE IN TERMS OF CLDCVR...AS THE MID LVLS APPEAR TO BE MOIST ENUF FOR WAA- INDUCED ALTOCU DVLPMNT. IN THE MTNS...ON THE OTHER HAND...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENUF TO YIELD SCT TSRA WHEN COMBINED W/ HIER CAPE VALUES. POP FCST ACCTS FOR THAT. OVERALL...POPS HV BEEN TRIMMED. WAA...AND MID DECK CLDS...INCREASE THRU THE NGT. DEWPTS MAY RISE A CPL DEGF AS WMFNT APPROACHES. DEWS SUPPORT MOS MIN-T...AND WENT ON THE HIER SIDE. HV TSRA DSPTG W/ LOSS OF DAYTIME HTG...AND HV ATTEMPTED TO SQUEAK IN A DRY OVNGT PD. THATS NOT ON THE FIRMEST OF FOOTING...DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY S/WV ENERGY EJECTS EWD. BASED ON AMPLITUDE OF UPA RDG...AM SIDING SLOWER. WITH THAT IN MIND...PVA SHUD CROSS CWFA DURING THE DAY ON MON. THAT/LL REDUCE AMPLITUDE OF UPA RDG...WHICH WL FOSTER A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR TSRA AS SLY FLOW WL PERMIT WARMER AND MORE UNSTBL AIR TO ADVANCE TWD I-95. TOOK MAXT INTO THE UPR 80S IN SPITE OF AMPLE INSOLATION. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... POSITIVELY UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE STARTING NEXT WEEK WITH WARMING AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. MODELS STILL KEYING IN ON VORT MAX TRAVERSING RIDGE TOP MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERING AFTERNOON STORMS WEST THAT PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. PREFRONTAL TROUGH TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY "COLD" FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AROUND THE BASE CANADIAN CLOSED LOW APPROACHES...WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS IN AN ALREADY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER STORMS WILL COME WEDNESDAY HOWEVER AS BASE OF LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS TOWARD NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN DECREASED STABILITY WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT. GFS MODEL SHOWS AXIS OF 4000+ J/KG MUCAPE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS ALOFT. HUMIDITY DROPS FOR THURSDAY POST FROPA...AND 4TH OF JULY IS STILL LOOKING GREAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EASTERLY FLOW MAY BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT...LOOKING MOST LIKELY AT CHO PER GUIDANCE BUT CAN/T RULE OUT MRB/IAD BEING AFFECTED. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE HUBS SATURDAY. LOW VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT MRB/IAD. GNLY VFR SUN-MON OUTSIDE OF CNVCTN. ON SUNDAY...CHC TSRA MAY MAKE IT TO CHO/MRB. ALL TERMINALS STAND A BETTER CHC MON. WUDNT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY PREDAWN FOG /MVFR/ ELY MON MRNG EITHER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .MARINE... EASTERLY FLOW INCREASED ACROSS THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND MD BAY SOUTH OF DRUM PT AND TANGIER SOUND LATE THIS AFTERNOON ADN EARLY THIS EVENING. A SCA IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING. FLOW SHOULD RELAX LATE TONIGHT AND VEER TO THE SE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS MAY ENHANCE SPEEDS SOME OVER THE LOWER MD BAY/LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER BUT CURRENTLY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. RDG OVER THE WATERS SUN WL MV TO THE E MON. FLOW WL VEER SLY...BUT SPDS SHUD REMAIN BLO SCA CRIT. UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... WATER LEVELS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 1/2 FT ABOVE NORMAL THIS EVENING AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY GIVEN AN EASTERLY FLOW. A NEW MOON IS PRESENT TODAY AS WELL. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT ANNAPOLIS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH WATER LEVELS AT FORT MCHENRY SINCE PREDICTIONS ARE CLOSE TO MINOR THRESHOLDS. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ014. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...WOODY! PRVS...HAS/HTS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
411 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1042 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014 SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA AFFECTING WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. AFTER PRODUCING SOME ISOLD WIND DAMAGE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WI IN NWS LA CROSSE CWA...THESE STORMS LOST PUNCH WHILE MOVING NORTH AWAY FM GREATER MLCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG TO THE SOUTH AND WEST CLOSER TO MAIN SFC WARM FRONT. DECENT AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN STILL OVER THE WEST AS THE SHRA/TSRA ARE BEING DRIVEN BY SHORTWAVE LIFTING OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND ASSOCIATED H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT. HAD REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA OF NEAR A THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE IRONWOOD AREA THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING POCKET OF HIGHER H7-H5 RH OFF RUC/NAM INDICATES SHORTWAVE AND LIFT WILL LIFT TOWARD SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SINCE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE OCCURRING OVR CNTRL WI ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF BETTER FORCING AND THIS IS FORECAST TO LIFT OVER CNTRL CWA...HAVE EXPANDED THE EASTERN EDGE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO DICKINSON AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. 00Z HRRR COMPOSITIVE REFLECTIVITY FORECAST ALSO SHOWING SIMILAR SCENARIO. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD TSRA WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR AS 1-6KM MUCAPE IS STILL A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AND PWATS REMAIN AROUND 175 PCT OF NORMAL. STEADY SOUTH WIND AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DWPNTS AOA 60 DEGREES HAS RESTRICTED TEMP FALL THUS FAR. NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR WHERE THE SOUTH WINDS PROVIDE A BIT OF DOWNSLOPE WARMING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 448 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014 THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THIS AFTERNOON A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO NOTE ARE SHOWING UP ON BOTH WV LOOP AND THE RUC ANALYSIS. THE FIRST WAVE IS PUSHING SLOWLY THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. WHILE THE NEXT ONE OVER SOUTHERN MN IS DIRECTLY BEHIND IT...BUT SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE TRACK OF THE FIRST WAVE. THE FIRST WAVE HAS BEEN TOUCHING OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND A COUPLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN WI AND WESTERN UPPER MI...BUT THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE PRECIP HAS BEEN TO VERY SLOWLY DIMINISHING. HI RES MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAKES SENSE AS MOST OF THE INSTABILITY AND BETTER MOISTURE SOURCE IS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE U.P. WITH ONLY MINOR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE WESTERN U.P. ONCE THE FIRST WAVE PUSHES OUT OF THE U.P. LATE THIS AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP BEFORE THE SECOND WAVE MOVES IN. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. AROUND 00Z/28...THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THE INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST AROUND THAT TIME AND LINGERING THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND WEST HALF...MAINLY NEAR THE WI BORDER OVERNIGHT...DUE LARGELY TO THE INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE FROM RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND DUE TO THE OVERALL INCREASING DEWPOINTS OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT LINGERING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AND OVER FAR WESTERN UPPER MI. THE MAIN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE PROGGED TO INTENSIFY ALLOWING A RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. TO STRENGTHEN AS WELL. THIS WILL HELP THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P. THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY...KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE EAST HALF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP REDUCE ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.P. AS MOISTURE/FORCING INCREASES OVER THOSE AREAS AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 1000-500RH ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER QCONV. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE LONGER TERM PERIOD ARE FOCUSED ON THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TS ON SUN THRU MON AS A STRONG SW FLOW BTWN HI PRES OFF THE E COAST AND DEEP LO PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA ADVECTS ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE UPR LKS AND IS LIFTED AT TIMES BY DISTURBANCES ROTATING ARND THE CNDN LO. THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE DISTURBANCES ARE THE MOST CHALLENING ASPECTS OF THIS FCST. TEMPS THRU MON WL BE RUNNING ABV NORMAL BEFORE COOLER AIR RETURNS ON TUE FOLLOWING COLD FROPA ATTENDANT TO SFC/CLOSED LO SHIFTING E THRU NW ONTARIO. SUN...FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHRTWV AND ACCOMPANYING AXIS OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AND HIER H85-5 RH ARE FCST TO SWING NEWD THRU THE UPR LKS DURING THE MRNG TO THE SE OF DEEP UPR LO NEAR LK WINNIPEG AND GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC AND DEEP DRYING. THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ILLOGICAL NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVCTN UNDER THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/HIER MID LVL RH. HOWEVER...WL MAINTAIN GOING FCST SHOWING LIKELY POPS MARCHING SW TO NE ACRS THE CWA GIVEN THE RATHER IMPRESSIVE SHRTWV AND OVERALL PWAT NEAR 1.50 INCHES /NEAR 170 PCT OF NORMAL/. LIMITED DEEP LYR SHEAR GENERALLY AOB 30 KTS AND DISPARITY BTWN DYNAMIC FORCING/ LLVL MSTR WL LIMIT THE SEVERITY OF ANY TS. IN FACT...SPC HAS REMOVED THE SLGT RISK FOR SVR TS FOR THE CWA IN THEIR LATEST OUTLOOK. SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE ADDITIONAL SFC BASED SHRA/TS WL DVLP IN THE AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION FOLLOWING THE CLRG THAT WL LIFT HI TEMPS INTO THE 80S UNDER H85 TEMPS ARND 16C AND SBCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT ADVERTISED DRYING/NEGATIVE DYNAMICS THAT CONTRIBUTE TO CAP SHOWN BEST ON NAM FCST SNDGS WARRANTS NO HIER THAN LO CHC POPS. SUN NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ANOTHER WEAKER SHRTWV ROTATING ARND THE CLOSED LO TO THE NW WL MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE UPR LKS...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING/TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THE 00Z NAM IS QUITE A BIT FASTER AND FARTHER TO THE NW...SHOWING THIS SHRTWV TRACKING RIGHT ACRS UPR MI DURING THE EVNG. WL TEND TOWARD TOWARD THE OTHER GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOWS A SLOWER SHRTWV FARTHER TO THE S...WHERE THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WOULD TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TS OVER THE SE CWA OVERNGT CLOSER TO AREA OF HIER H85 THETA-E/MSTR GRADIENT LEFT IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV THAT WL CROSS THE FA ON SUN MRNG. THE BULK OF THESE MODELS HOWEVER SHOW THE NW PART OF THE CWA REMAINING PCPN FREE WITH THE MID LVLS REMAINING TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PCPN. MON INTO MON NIGHT...CLOSED LO OVER SRN MANITOBA IS FCST TO DRIFT INTO NW ONTARIO...AND MODELS INDICATE YET ANOTHER STRONGER SHRTWV/ AREA OF DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL MOVE THRU THE UPR LKS ARND THAT LARGER SCALE FEATURE. MODEL CONSENSUS IS ACTUALLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT SHOWING ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IMPACTING MAINLY THE SE CWA IN THE 18Z MON-06Z TUE TIME ALONG LEFTOVER THERMAL/MSTR GRADIENT AND AREA OF HIER H85 THETA E. LARGER SCALE DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS PASSING DISTURBANCE DURING A PERIOD OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WL RESULT IN DIMINISHING POPS ON MON NGT. BUT APRCHG UPR TROF AXIS/ PSBLY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE/BACKWASH MSTR FM THE W AND DEEP CYC FLOW WARRANTS AT LEAST SOME LO CHC POPS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA THRU THE NGT. TUE...A NUMBER OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINT A SHRTWV ROTATING ARND THE CLOSED LO DRIFTING E THRU ONTARIO AND WITHIN ARPCHG UPR TROF AXIS EXTENDING S INTO THE WRN LKS WL IMPACT UPR MI. IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL HEATING AND GENERAL LLVL CYC FLOW...THERE WL BE SOME SHOWERS/PSBLY A TS. TUE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT COOLER AS H85 TEMPS FALL TOWARD 10C. EXTENDED...AREA OF DEEPER MSTR UNDER THE UPR TROF AXIS EXTENDING S INTO THE UPR LKS FM DEPARTING CLOSED LO SHIFTING INTO QUEBEC WL BRING A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER AND PSBLY A LINGERING SHOWER TO THE CWA ON WED...BUT RISING HGTS LATER IN THE DAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF AXIS SHOULD BRING MORE SUNSHINE. WITH TRAILING HI PRES DOMINATING ON THU...EXPECT A MOSUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY. MODELS HAVE TENDED TO SHIFT THIS HI MORE QUICKLY TO THE E BY FRI...WITH A RETURN SW FLOW DVLPG OVER THE UPR LKS. THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE NOW HINTING THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/TS ON JULY 4TH AS A DISTURBANCE IN THE MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE RETURNING WARMER/MOISTER AIR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 EXPECT SHRA AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSRA TO AFFECT KCMX EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST A SLIM CHANCE OF A SHRA/TSRA AT KIWD AND KSAW. CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR THOUGH. AFTER THE CHANCE OF RAIN ENDS LATER THIS MORNING...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WITH SCT MID CLOUDS. NEXT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL RETURN TO KIWD LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS LOW-LEVEL JET IS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 ALTHOUGH THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING OVER THE UPPER LAKES THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE SE FLANK OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP LO PRES MOVING ENEWD THRU SCENTRAL CANADA...HI STABILITY OVER THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS WL VERY LIKELY HOLD WINDS TO 25 KTS OR LESS THRU THIS PERIOD. AS MORE HUMID AIR ARRIVES THRU THE WEEKEND OVER THE CHILLY WATERS...EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST UNTIL DRIER AIR FOLLOWS A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WIND SHIFT TO THE W EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JLA SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KC AVIATION...JLA MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
111 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1042 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014 SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA AFFECTING WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. AFTER PRODUCING SOME ISOLD WIND DAMAGE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WI IN NWS LA CROSSE CWA...THESE STORMS LOST PUNCH WHILE MOVING NORTH AWAY FM GREATER MLCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG TO THE SOUTH AND WEST CLOSER TO MAIN SFC WARM FRONT. DECENT AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN STILL OVER THE WEST AS THE SHRA/TSRA ARE BEING DRIVEN BY SHORTWAVE LIFTING OVER WESTERN LK SUPERIOR AND ASSOCIATED H85-H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT. HAD REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA OF NEAR A THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE IRONWOOD AREA THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING POCKET OF HIGHER H7-H5 RH OFF RUC/NAM INDICATES SHORTWAVE AND LIFT WILL LIFT TOWARD SCNTRL LK SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SINCE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE OCCURRING OVR CNTRL WI ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF BETTER FORCING AND THIS IS FORECAST TO LIFT OVER CNTRL CWA...HAVE EXPANDED THE EASTERN EDGE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO DICKINSON AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. 00Z HRRR COMPOSITIVE REFLECTIVITY FORECAST ALSO SHOWING SIMILAR SCENARIO. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD TSRA WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOUR AS 1-6KM MUCAPE IS STILL A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AND PWATS REMAIN AROUND 175 PCT OF NORMAL. STEADY SOUTH WIND AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DWPNTS AOA 60 DEGREES HAS RESTRICTED TEMP FALL THUS FAR. NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS UPWARD BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR WHERE THE SOUTH WINDS PROVIDE A BIT OF DOWNSLOPE WARMING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 448 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014 THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THIS AFTERNOON A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO NOTE ARE SHOWING UP ON BOTH WV LOOP AND THE RUC ANALYSIS. THE FIRST WAVE IS PUSHING SLOWLY THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. WHILE THE NEXT ONE OVER SOUTHERN MN IS DIRECTLY BEHIND IT...BUT SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE TRACK OF THE FIRST WAVE. THE FIRST WAVE HAS BEEN TOUCHING OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND A COUPLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN WI AND WESTERN UPPER MI...BUT THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE PRECIP HAS BEEN TO VERY SLOWLY DIMINISHING. HI RES MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAKES SENSE AS MOST OF THE INSTABILITY AND BETTER MOISTURE SOURCE IS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE U.P. WITH ONLY MINOR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE WESTERN U.P. ONCE THE FIRST WAVE PUSHES OUT OF THE U.P. LATE THIS AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP BEFORE THE SECOND WAVE MOVES IN. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. AROUND 00Z/28...THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THE INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST AROUND THAT TIME AND LINGERING THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND WEST HALF...MAINLY NEAR THE WI BORDER OVERNIGHT...DUE LARGELY TO THE INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE FROM RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND DUE TO THE OVERALL INCREASING DEWPOINTS OVER THE AREA. SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT LINGERING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AND OVER FAR WESTERN UPPER MI. THE MAIN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE PROGGED TO INTENSIFY ALLOWING A RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. TO STRENGTHEN AS WELL. THIS WILL HELP THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P. THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY...KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE EAST HALF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP REDUCE ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.P. AS MOISTURE/FORCING INCREASES OVER THOSE AREAS AS SHOWN BY ANALYZING 1000-500RH ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER QCONV. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 448 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014 MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE LONGER TERM PERIOD ARE FOCUSED ON THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TS LATE SAT THRU MON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS AS A STRONG SW FLOW BTWN HI PRES OFF THE E COAST AND DEEP LO PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA ADVECTS PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE UPR LKS. TEMPS THRU MON WL BE RUNNING ABV NORMAL BEFORE COOLER AIR RETURNS ON TUE FOLLOWING COLD FROPA ATTENDANT TO SFC/CLOSED LO SHIFTING E INTO ONTARIO. SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...UPR MI WL BE SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF MID-LVL TROF AND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG AND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM...HUMID SSW FLOW BTWN THIS LO AND NEARLY STATIONARY HI PRES OFF THE E COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SET THE STAGE FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS MODELS ADVERTISE A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/TS LATE SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE OVER THE WRN CWA CLOSER TO THE CLOSED LOW AND ITS ASSOC FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE ACCOMPANYING DYNAMIC SUPPORT (Q-VECT CONV) MAY NOT BE IN SYNC WITH H85 THETA E ADVECTION. HOWEVER CONSIDERING THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA DID BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE WEST LATE SAT NIGHT AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. SPC HAS THE WRN THIRD OF CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR ON DAY3 (SUNDAY). SINCE THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES RISING AOA 1000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KT BY MIDDAY SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBLE SVR STORMS IN THE HWO OVER PRIMARILY THE WEST HALF FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD RISE INTO THE 80S AWAY FM THE LK MI COOLING WITH H85 TEMPS FCST ARND 17C. SUN NIGHT...SOME OF THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN CONVECTION ESPECIALLY LATER SUN NIGHT WITH A LACK OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND DRYING/SUBSIDENCE HINTED BY MODEL SNDGS. FOG COULD BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR SUN NIGHT WITH WARM HUMID AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE AND A POSIBLE BREAK IN PCPN. THE LOWEST TEMPS WILL BE MOST LIKELY DOWNWIND OF THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI...WHERE FOG MAY ALSO ADVECT IN OFF THE LK. MON INTO MON NIGHT...AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA DRIFTS INTO NW ONTARIO...MODELS SHOW THAT THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY E ACROSS UPR MI. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH WRN UPR MI IN THE MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE...THEN THE FRONT STALLS TEMPORARILY OVER CENTRAL UPR MI MON AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE PUSHES THE FRONT EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE MON EVENING/EARLY TUE MORNING. MODERATE MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND MOISTENING AHEAD OF THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SHOULD INITIATE MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA OVER CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MON EVENING. DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY/S COLD FROPA AS WELL AS NOCTURNAL COOLING WL RESULT IN DIMINISHING CHCS FOR PCPN LATE MON NIGHT. TUE AND WED... ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WL REMAIN IN PLACE...MOST OF THE EXTENDED MODELS HINT THAT A SERIES OF SHRTWVS MAY ROTATE AROUND THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTING E THRU ONTARIO AND IMPACT THE UPR LKS. IN THE PRESENCE OF LLVL CYCLONIC FLOW OR ESPECIALLY IF TIMED WITH DIURNAL HEATING THESE SHORTWAVES COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLD SHOWERS. MODELS ADVERTISE MUCH COOLER AIR (5-8C OFF 00Z ECMWF) WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE SHORTWAVES SO BLO NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD BE THE RULE TUE INTO THU. THU AND THE 4TH OF JULY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE STRONG SFC RDGG BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FM THE WEST SO HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR DRY FCST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS BY THE 4TH WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND BUT MAY STILL BE SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 EXPECT SHRA AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSRA TO AFFECT KCMX EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH JUST A SLIM CHANCE OF A SHRA/TSRA AT KIWD AND KSAW. CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR THOUGH. AFTER THE CHANCE OF RAIN ENDS LATER THIS MORNING...EXPECT MAINLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WITH SCT MID CLOUDS. NEXT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL RETURN TO KIWD LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS LOW-LEVEL JET IS OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 448 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...LESS THAN 25 KTS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE AREA...YET WIND SPEEDS WILL STILL REMAIN 25 KNOTS OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JLA SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...VOSS AVIATION...JLA MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
405 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014 Convective trends are once again the primary forecast problem for today. Still plenty of moisture, and forecast soundings indicate a little more instability than yesterday. There is a well developed MCV over Oklahoma which will move northeast and produce another round of precipitation over western Missouri from late morning into the afternoon, and there is another subtle shortwave currently over western Missouri which the RUC and HRRR seem to be keying on to produce widely scattered convection over central and northeast Missouri early this morning. Have a pretty high confidence it will rain somewhere in the CWFA, sometime today due to these features, tho confidence is low on exact timing and coverage. Generally speaking tho we should see a general increase in coverage due to diurnal heating in the afternoon. MOS temperatures in the mid to upper 80s looked reasonable for highs today with 850mb temps in the 16-18C range, tho any convection will have a large impact on what highs actually turn out to be. Carney .LONG TERM: (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014 A strong storm system over the Plains currently will track east-northeast into IA and the Upper MS Valley tonight. This will tail a vorticity lobe into our region, and this should be plenty to work convection in and keep it going thru much of the night. This convection will probably come in two waves...the first working in during the evening having already formed further west earlier and then accelerating east and weakening. Enough shear and instability with what should be a mature enough development to warrant a risk for damaging winds in NE and Central MO. Another, more sustained, but likely not severe, wave of convection to then move thru overnight and should keep going--this being supported better by the upper level shortwave. Rain from this wave should then exit on Sunday morning with some redevelopment in the afternoon possible. A MCS is expected to form to our northwest over the Mid-MO valley Sunday night and then track eastward. The main effect will largely miss our region, but this should lay out a boundary for additional development Monday with anticipated destabilization on its south side. Once the synoptic cold front catches up with this Monday night and into Tuesday, should see higher PoPs for more widespread rain. With what should be a more northwesterly mid-level flow heading into the middle of next week, this front is expected to push well south, allowing for a series of cool high pressures to invade and settle in for the end of the week. A dry forecast is therefore in order for most areas to close out the 7-day forecast. Temps to remain at or above normal until about the middle of next week, peaking on Monday with widespread 90s expected. Temps Monday a bit questionable in the north with interference from MCS boundary and enhanced rain chances but I-70 and south, it looks hot. Afternoon heat index values may top out at close to 105 for STL metro and this will need to be watched for need of an Advisory. A couple of bonus nice days Wednesday and Thursday with maxes in the lo-mid 80s. Despite east-southeast flow on the 4th of July, rising heights to 590dm at h500 will warrant higher temps that day, but still looks to be mid-upper 80s for now. A more typical summertime ridging pattern aloft looks to be in store for the rest of the holiday weekend and into the following week with what could be a prolonged period of hot weather. Summer is here. TES && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014 There is still some low chance for thunderstorms to redevelop toward sunrise, but this chance is not high enough to include in any of the TAFs at this time. Have maintained broken ceilings between 1200-1500ft AGL developing after 09Z as there is some indication of these ceilings currently over the plains, and latest model guidance still points to these conditions developing overnight and lasting through mid morning. Also expect scattered thunderstorms to redevelop by midday and continue until just before sunset. Additional thunderstorms are expected tomorrow evening, though did not include with this TAF issuance because do not have enough confidence on timing. Brief MVFR or possibly IFR conditions can be expected with the heavier cores. Specifics for KSTL: Have kept 1200 foot ceilings between 10-15Z for now as lower atmosphere is very moist from recent rainfall and latest model guidance still points to these conditions developing overnight and lasting through mid morning. Also expect scattered thunderstorms to redevelop by midday and continue until just before sunset. Additional thunderstorms are expected tomorrow evening, though did not include with this TAF issuance because do not have enough confidence on timing. Britt && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1250 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST MOVES INLAND THROUGH SRN CANADA SUNDAY AND SENDS A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH WRN AND NCNTL NEB. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARMER WEATHER DEVELOPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPS. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY. UNTIL THEN THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ABBREVIATED DISCUSSION AS WE ARE CURRENTLY WATCHING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MULTIPLE MODES OF CONVECTION CAN BE ANTICIPATED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND GUSTY OUTFLOW EXISTS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS CELLS MERGE AND CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES FORM. THE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM RELIES ON A BLEND OF THE 27.12Z NAM AND NEAR TERM CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS. THE OVERALL IDEA IS THAT MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST ATOP THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. MVFR STRATUS HAS BACKED INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY...LIMITING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDING FOR A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CAP /SEE 18Z SPECIAL KLBF SOUNDING/. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE STRATUS IS SLOWLY BREAKING...WITH A BKN DECK NOW GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A KOGA TO KONL LINE. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD FURTHER DESTABILIZE AS THE IMPULSE CLOSES AND ADDITIONAL CLEARING OCCURS. RAP GENERATED SBCAPES APPROACH 3000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON EAST OF A IMPERIAL TO NORTH PLATTE TO BROKEN BOW LINE...WITH UP TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS REGION. ONCE THE CAP ERODES...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM IN TWO GENERAL AREAS...FIRST ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST COLORADO...IN THE VICINITY OF A NORTH TO SOUTH SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW CENTERED IN FAR WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. IN THIS AREA THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL INITIALLY...BUT THEN TRANSITION TO A WIND THREAT AS THE STORMS MERGE INTO A CONVECTIVE LINE AND DCAPES APPROACH 1000 J/KG. THIS ACTIVITY PROJECTED TO LIFT EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS THIS EVENING. THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION WILL BE ANTICIPATED INVOF THE TRIPLE POINT THAT IS SHOWN TO SLOWLY BULGE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STORMS IN THIS AREA MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO AS THE SUPERCELLS REMAIN SEMI-DISCRETE. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO MULTIPLE CLUSTERS. IN ADDITION TO THE BRIEF TORNADO THREAT...HAIL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE VERY LARGE...WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION OF CAPE RESIDES IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER...BUT ONCE AGAIN THE VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL BE MAINLY TIED DURING THE INITIAL SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL STAGE. THIS ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS PROJECTED TO MERGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS INCREASE TO THE 1.25-1.50" RANGE. MORE ON THE RAIN THREAT BELOW. THE FORECAST GENERALLY CALLS FOR WIDESPREAD 50-60% POPS OVER MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS...WESTERN...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DIDN/T WANT TO GO MUCH HIGHER AS CONVECTION...WELL IT/S CONVECTION. CONCERNING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...THE POTENTIAL MCS/S/ MAY PROVE TO BE A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AS A COLD POOL DEVELOPS AND POSSIBLY REINFORCING A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY...FOR WHICH REDEVELOPMENT/TRAINING WOULD OCCUR AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. AGAIN PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 1.25" ATOP EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 1.50" OVER FRONTIER AND CUSTER COUNTIES. WE MAY SEE A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT. FOR SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHIFTS EAST WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT...WITH WIDESPREAD 80S ANTICIPATED. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES REVOLVE AROUND THE PROGRESSION OF RETURN MOISTURE AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT FCST TO ARRIVE SUNDAY. RETURN MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT MIGHT PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. THE BETTER CHANCES OCCUR SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS THE PACIFIC FRONT SAGS THRU THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 ARE MORE FAVORED AT THIS TIME. A FAIRLY STRONG THERMAL RIDGE/CAP DEVELOPS SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO 15C ACROSS SWRN NEB. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LOW OVER MANITOBA...HEATING AND MOISTURE...HIGH CAPE AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT SUPPORT SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS THE CAP WEAKENS SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING. POPS TAPER ACROSS SWRN NEB WITH THE CAP IN PLACE UNTIL 06Z OR LATER. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND THEN AMPLIFIES SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE ROCKIES. RETURN MOISTURE DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. GIVEN THE WARMING ALOFT...SLOW MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAKENING WIND FIELDS...ISOLATED POPS ARE LIMITED TO THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. THE MODELS SUGGEST H500MB TEMPS WOULD RISE TO -6C TO -8C WHICH WOULD GENERALLY CAP DAYTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES RISE FROM AROUND 80 TUESDAY TO THE 90S BY FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXITING THE AREA WITH VISUAL FLIGHT RULES AT TERMINALS KLBF AND KVTN. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT MAIN CONCERN IS FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 09Z WITH FOG INTRODUCED IN BOTH TERMINAL FORECASTS. SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN...YET AS TEMPERATURES FALL TEMP AND DEWPOINT SPREAD GAP WILL CLOSE. THEN TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST BETTER CHANCE FOR STRATUS INTO THE VALENTINE AREA AND WILL MONITOR FOR LATER UPDATES. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CDC SHORT TERM...JACOBS LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...KECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
150 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1045 PM FRIDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN COMPLETELY OVERTURNED AND SURFACE-BASED PARCELS ARE CAPPED TO FURTHER DEEP CONVECTION. ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY CONTINUE TO FUEL NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THROUGH MIDNIGHT THE HIGHEST CHANCE (30-40 PERCENT) OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER LAND IS IN THE MYRTLE BEACH VICINITY AND ALONG THE SANTEE RIVER...BUT THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A 20 POP FORECAST LATE. TEMPERATURES ARE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF FORECAST LOWS IN MANY LOCATIONS SO I HAVE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN A LITTLE...WITH 70-74 NOW FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS... THE LOWEST PRESSURES OBSERVED ON ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS ARE ABOUT 70 MILES WEST OF GEORGETOWN SC...29.98 INCHES OR ABOUT 1015 MB. THIS IS AN INTERESTING LITTLE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TOMORROW WHERE IT WILL REMAIN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE HURRICANE CENTER HAS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT FORECAST ON THIS FEATURE WHICH WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CLOSER TO HOME...SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND BROAD SURFACE CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONTAL BAND AND THE SURFACE LOW LED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS...MANY OF WHICH CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. RADAR HAS ESTIMATED UP TO 4.8 INCHES OF RAIN NEAR LONGS SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH THE HIGHEST GAUGE-MEASURED TOTALS INCLUDING 2.48 INCHES IN CONWAY SC...2.36 INCHES IN LUMBERTON NC...AND 1.57 INCHES AT BACK ISLAND NC (HOLLY SHELTER SWAMP). THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ANYWHERE THEY CAN FIND BUBBLES OF UNSTABLE AIR THAT HAVEN`T BEEN WORKED OVER YET. UNTAPPED INSTABILITY REMAINS WEST OF FLORENCE AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SANTEE RIVER...AND THIS IS WHERE I HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY WANES OVERNIGHT. CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE INCLUDE INITIALIZING 100 PERCENT POPS ALONG AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACTIVITY...AND USING THE HRRR MODEL AS A GUIDE FOR THE SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR MODEL RUNS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO I HAVE INCREASED POPS THERE EVEN AS I HAVE LOWERED THEM INLAND. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WHICH REMAIN IN THE 72-75 RANGE...WARMEST AT THE SC BEACHES. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...REMAINS OF A FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA ALONG WITH LINGERING OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE BETTER OF THE 2 DAYS WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO THE SPECTER OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. WHILE THE CHANCE THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IS LOW IT WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...FURTHER INCREASING MOISTURE AND POTENTIALLY ADDING SOME LOW LEVEL FORCING. BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE...WHILE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT SAT...IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN A DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE SUN...AS WILL THE SOUTHWARD/EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT DUE THE BUILD RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE WEAKER SIDE...LESSENING THE WIND/HAIL THREAT. IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE ON THE ORDER OF 5 MPH AND POSSIBLY LESS. DEEP MOISTURE...SLOW STORM MOTIONS...AND DEEP WARM LAYER(FREEZING LEVEL REMAINS ABOVE 15K FT) MEAN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLOODING. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW CLIMO...MID TO UPPER 80S AND KEEP LOWS ABOVE CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY. SOME DRIER AIR LOCALLY ON MONDAY COMBINED WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROMOTE ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION CHANCES FOR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MOIST ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY RAMP BACK UP AND CONVECTION CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUES/WED...WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES BECOMING MORE ACTIVE EACH DAY AS HEAT AND MOISTURE DRIVE HIGHER INSTABILITY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE BEHIND THIS...AS IT SERVES MORE AS A DRYING BOUNDARY THAN A TEMPERATURE BOUNDARY. WILL SHOW DECREASED POP FOR LATE WEEK BUT WITH TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD TO THE COASTAL TERMINALS. WILL INCLUDE TEMPO MVFR VISIBILITIES IN CONVECTIVE RAINS FROM ABOUT 09-10Z THROUGH 12-14Z AT KMYR/KCRE AND KILM. INLAND...STRATUS PERSISTS AND WILL INCLUDE CATEGORICAL IFR AT KFLO AND KLBT. TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY. STORMS COULD POP JUST ABOUT ANY TIME...ALTHOUGH MAIN FOCUS WILL PROBABLY BE NEAR THE COAST WHERE STRONGEST LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE. STILL LOOKING AT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS...WHICH INCREASES THE RISK FOR IFR VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD POSSIBLY CREATING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...WINDS ARE BACKING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST A LITTLE FASTER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 18Z GFS BUT NOT THE 00Z NAM. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS... LOW PRESSURE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 MILES WEST OF GEORGETOWN SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT... PUSHED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT AND VERY LITTLE REASON TO CALL IT A "FRONT" OTHER THAN WIND DIRECTIONS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH TO MORE EAST OR NORTHEASTERLY. PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON HAS PUSHED RAIN-COOLED AIR OFFSHORE...ESPECIALLY FROM MYRTLE BEACH NORTHWARD. THIS HAS LED TO A MUDDLED WIND PATTERN WHERE INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE HAD MORE INFLUENCE OVER WIND SPEED/DIRECTIONS THAN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC WIND FLOW. AS THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR THE EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT...ALTHOUGH WITH WIND SPEEDS ONLY AVERAGING 10 KNOTS. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 1-2 FEET ACROSS THE WATERS. WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT LOOK FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN SEA HEIGHTS. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND STALLED DISSIPATING FRONT IN THE AREA...WITH WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT SO SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST MONDAY...ALLOWING STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TO BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS CAUSES WINDS TO VEER FROM NE TO SE ON MONDAY...AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS BOTH DAYS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE WITH A VEERING WIND-WAVE AND A CONTINUED SE GROUND SWELL MAKING UP THE SPECTRUM. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...43/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1214 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONT SOUTH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE FRONT...MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... AS OF 1210 AM SAT...HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST AND OUTER BANKS. HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIP GRADUALLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 17...AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE TRENDED POPS IN A SIMILAR FASHION. TEMPS HAVE COOLED TO THE LOW TO MID 70S AND EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... AS OF 131 PM FRI...STRONG SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT FORMED ALONG THE SEABREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT COMBINING WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR SCATTERED STORMS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE...KEEPING THEM SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...COMBINED WITH VARIOUS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...WILL KEEP CHANCE OF ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SLOW MOVEMENT AND HIGH PWS COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE SOUTH WITH THE VICINITY OF FRONT/LOW. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH A STALLED SFC BNDRY TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PARTICULARLY DURING PEAK HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL CLOUDINESS AND AN EAST FLOW SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPS NEAR CLIMO NORMALS SUNDAY...MAINLY UPPER 80S INLAND TO LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. UPPER RIDGE SETTLES TO THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE SEMI-PERMANENT PIEDMONT TROUGH REDEVELOPING BY MIDWEEK. WILL KEEP POPS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AT 20 TO 30 PCT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HIGHEST AFTN AND EVENING WHEN INSTAB PEAKS. LOW LVL THICKNESS RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD..THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS OF 85 TO 90 ON MONDAY RISING INTO THE 90 TO 95 DGR RANGE THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 1210 AM SAT...GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS AT PRESENT BUT WITH ABUNDANT RAINFALL BRINGING A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT AREAS OF STRATUS OR FOG THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING SAT. MOS GUIDANCE...SREF...NARRES AND HRRR INDICATING DESCENT CHANCES OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS DEVELOPING WITH VSBYS MAINLY REMAINING IN THE VFR/MVFR RANGE AND FOLLOWED SUIT IN THE TAFS. BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT EWN WHERE GUIDANCE IS LEAST BULLISH. A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA SAT WITH SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 145 PM FRI...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED SUN- TUE. BRIEF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF REDUCTION TO SUB-VFR IN ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/ AS OF 1210 AM SAT...WINDS GENERALLY EAST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES AND SOUNDS. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES PLANNED. LOW PRESSURE OVER COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS. THE LOW WILL VERY GRADUALLY PUSH OFF THE SC COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. GENERALLY ELY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT...AROUND 5-15 KT...STRONGEST NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET. WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT NORTHERN WATERS AND 10-15 KT SOUTHERN WATERS SATURDAY AS GRADIENTS TIGHTEN BETWEEN HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE LOW OFF THE SC COAST SEAS AROUND 2 FT THIS EVENING WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY...UP TO 4 FT NRN WATERS...SAT AS ELY FLOW INCREASES. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRES TO THE N AND DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE S WILL LEAD TO MAINLY E WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THRU SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIDES E LOW LVL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SE MON AND SOUTHERLY BY TUE. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 15 KT RANGE MON AND TUE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 4 FEET THRU SUN AND SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FEET MON INTO EARLY TUE. LATER TUE COULD AGAIN SEE SOME 4 FT SEAS OUTER WATERS AS SRLY WINDS INCREASE A BIT. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CGG NEAR TERM...HSA/SK SHORT TERM...CGG LONG TERM...BTC/RF AVIATION...HSA/SK/CGG MARINE...HSA/SK/BTC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1215 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 THE LATEST LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR AND WATER VAPOR SHOWS A COUPLE OF NICELY DEFINED SHORTWAVES ROTATING NORTH FROM SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. ONE SHORTWAVE NEAR FAITH SOUTH DAKOTA IS MOVING NORTH WITH CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE MAINTAINS A NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OVERNIGHT AND HAVE UPPED POPS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A MORE IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS SUPPORTING A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR PIERRE SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN OVERNIGHT AND MOVE TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z SATURDAY...THEN INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BY 00Z SUNDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...THIS LOW WILL SLIDE NORTH ALONG A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SETTING THE STAGE FOR PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUS THE FLOOD WATCH AND THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING CONTINUES. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION AREA...AND RELIED MAINLY ON UPSTREAM TRENDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHICH INDICATE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 07Z SATURDAY. WENT CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. UPDATE ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 MAIN ISSUE FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE WAS TO DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST. ALSO DROPPED THE MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT...AND UPDATED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ALONG A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS HAS ENDED THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH QUARTER SIZED HAIL OR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. UPDATE ISSUED AT 716 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THIS EVENING WAS TO CLEAR UP POP FORECAST. AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY HAS PRETTY MUCH CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA. BUT DID KEEP SOME SMALL POPS IN THE EAST AND CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. FOCUS IS NOW IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THIS AREA THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD IT INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION SEVERAL FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED RECENTLY IN THE MOTT TO HETTINGER AND LEMON SD AREA. LCL HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW IN THIS AREA WITH A NON SUPERCELL TORNADO PARA MATER MAXIMA IN THIS AREA. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 MCV OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE HAS SPARKED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR PROGS THIS MCV AND ATTENDANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS FORECAST...SO KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE EASTERN CWA. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A WET PICTURE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH PIVOTS OVER THE DAKOTAS. NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING FROM THE FORECAST EITHER. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE SEVERE WORDING IN THE ZONES FOR THIS UPDATE...AND CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS DECIDE IF THE WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME BASED ON HOW THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EVOLVES. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER ALBERTA/BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED. AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW MOVES/DEVELOPS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WHERE IT REMAINS THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS HUDSON BAY ON MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL KEEP A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY...AND HENCE A CHANCE OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW IN EXITING THE REGION...A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BENEATH THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND BRING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE RIDGE FLATTENS BY FRIDAY AND CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WITH FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW. A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS 65 TO 75 MONDAY...WARMING TO 75 TO 85 BY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 WIDESPREAD/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM KDIK INTO KBIS AND KMOT SHORTLY AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY EXPAND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY/KJMS TERMINAL SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PRECIPITATION WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AREAS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DWINDLING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-018>023-025-033>037-040>048-050-051. && $$ UPDATE...KS SHORT TERM...TM LONG TERM...JV AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1137 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP/WX FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE FIRST UPPER WAVE IS SLOWLY PROPAGATING NORTH/NORTHEAST...AND SHOULD BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN FA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS (ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED TIMING OF THESE SHOWERS). OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE NIGHT STILL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH INCREASING ACTIVITY AFTER SUNRISE. SEE 728 PM UPDATE CONCERNING FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 728 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH SATURDAY...AND PRECIP COVERAGE TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGES. THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT ACTIVITY CAN BE SEEN IN THE RADAR IMAGERY...JUST ENTERING EXTREME SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION BY 06Z...AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED BREAK IN ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. MOST AREAS HAVE RECEIVED A TRACE TO AN INCH OF RAIN...WITH ISOLATED AREAS UP TO 2 INCHES...AND VERY LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO 3 INCHES. ALTHOUGH FLASH FLOODING WILL NOT BE A THREAT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...STILL CONCERNED WITH THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE STRONGER...AND SHOULD BE INTERACTING WITH A SIMILAR AIRMASS (HIGH PWATS...LOW INSTABILITY). SO...THIS FIRST WAVE OF ACTIVITY HAS SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING ON SATURDAY. THE AREA OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...BUT STILL DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION. THE HRRR IS DOING A GOOD JOG IN THE NEAR TERM...AND THE NAM/GFS ARE NOT TOO BAD WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES INTO SUNDAY. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY...AND WE WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE/MCV THAT WILL LIFT NORTH AND AFFECT THE DVL BASIN AND THE VALLEY. EXPECT VIGOROUS CONVECTION WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN...SOME SMALL HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME WIND GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE...PWATS TO 1.75 INCHES LATER TONIGHT AND MUCAPE TO 3000 J/KG. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT AN EVEN INTO SAT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DEEP LAYERED SHEAR ONLY AROUND 25-30KT. GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND 70 DEWPOINTS...WE CAN NEVER TOTALLY RULE OUT SEVERE STORMS. WE WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN THE GRIDS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO THE MN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AND SAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ANYWHERE A THUNDERSTORM CAN DEVELOP IN THIS TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER PERHAPS A BREAK DURING THE MORNING WITH MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS...SINCE THE LLJ IS NOT THAT STRONG AROUND 30-35KT OR SO. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN WITH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR FAIRLY WEAK BUT A BIT STRONGER THAN TODAY...SO ONCE AGAIN A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH HAIL/WIND. THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS THAT COULD RECEIVE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES...PERHAPS MORE WHERE STORMS PERSIST FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SAT NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD END. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 ON SUNDAY...A STRONG LOW WILL WRAP UP IN CANADA WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAINLY IN THE NORTH. FOR MONDAY...IT SHOULD BE COOL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM. THERE WILL STILL BE HIGH PWATS OVER 1.25 INCHES IN THE NORTH...SO MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. LARGE UPPER LOW WILL DEPART THE AREA TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A LINGERING LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS. THEN DRIER AIR WORKS IN FOR WED-THU BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES BRINGING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF HAVING RUN TO RUN ISSUES IN REGARDS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK OR A FLATTER ZONAL FLOW. HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR A SHORT WAVE WILL IMPACT NORTH DAKOTA/NRN MN LATE WEEK BUT UNLIKE THE PAST TWO SYSTEMS MAY NOT LINGER AROUND AS LONG AS IT MOVES EAST FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY. LATE WEEK MAY TURN QUITE WARM AND VERY HUMID. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOWER CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT MOST TAF SITES AT SOME POINT BEFORE SUNRISE. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATER SATURDAY MORNING (AT LEAST ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY). && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 CANCELLED THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE S BUFFALO RIVER AT SABIN WHERE RIVER LEVELS DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND FOR THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK...WHERE STAGES PEAKED JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE RED RIVER AT FARGO CONTINUES TO DECLINE...WHILE RIVER STAGES ARE HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY FROM EAST GRAND FORKS TO DRAYTON. OSLO IS THE ONLY FORECAST POINT THAT REMAINS IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND WILL DETERMINE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL POSE THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THUS...FLOODING CONCERNS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001>004-007- 029. && $$ UPDATE...TG SHORT TERM...DK LONG TERM...DK/RIDDLE AVIATION...TG HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
300 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE MOISTURE TODAY. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. FRONT WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SOME FAIRLY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS TODAY. NAM IS THE SLOWEST BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE GFS IS THE FASTEST. RUC SEEMS TO REPRESENT A MIDDLE GROUND. LOOKING AT THE VAD WINDS...BELIEVE THAT THE NAM MAY HAVE TOO WEAK OF A FLOW AT 700 MB...SO WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE RUC SOLUTION. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR THE BEST DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FLANKS. WILL RUN THE HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS. MODELS INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP SOME POPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WILL BE TRACKING A S/W TROF THAT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA FROM THE W ON SUNDAY...DAMPENING OUT AS IT DOES SO. TROF AXIS SLOWLY PUSHES THRU CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING...EXPECT A DECREASE OF COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP MONDAY ACROSS E ZONES. KEPT INHERITED HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN STORMS WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES AND GENERALLY WEAK FLOW...THINK DOWNPOURS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY S TO N TRAINING SUNDAY FOR WATER CONCERNS. WILL HAVE A MENTION OF WATER CONCERNS IN HWO FOR SUNDAY. OVERALL THOUGH...AREA IS ON THE DRY SIDE SO IT WOULD TAKE SLOW MOVERS WITH SOME TRAINING TO REALLY ALLOW A FLOOD THREAT TO MATERIALIZE. DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WORKS IN MONDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS LOWERING. WITH NO TRIGGER...ELECTED TO GO POP FREE MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE RESIDUAL SE FLOW MAY KEEP AN ISOLATED SHRA THREAT GOING. SOME CHANGES FOR TUESDAY AS GFS AND GEM HAVE SLOWED PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE NEW ECMWF HAS ALSO SLOWED THINGS DOWN BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE OTHER TWO MODELS. AS SUCH...HAVE STIFF ARMED HIGH POPS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS W ZONES. BLENDED IN INHERITED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST ALLBLEND TOOL WITH SOME INCORPORATION OF HIRES ARW EARLY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES IN OUR THINKING FROM YESTERDAY. A PSEUDO LULL IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL FIGURED FOR OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS 12Z MODELS PUSH THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. AFTER THE WEAK AND SLUGGISH SUMMER FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...WINDS AT ALL LEVELS BEGINS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. STILL FIGURING ON ABOUT A 30 KNOT STEERING CURRENT FLOW ON TUESDAY. FASTER MOVING STORMS ARE LIKELY. NOT THE BEST SUPPORT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE 60 TO 70 MPH 300 MB JET MAX STILL LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST. 12Z GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL HAVE EL ABOUT 40 THSD FT. CAN NOT RULE OUT SEVERE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WILL LEAVE CHANCE OF LIGHTER LEFTOVERS...SHOWERS/STORMS...ON WEDNESDAY...FIGURING THE SURFACE FRONT STILL MOVING THROUGH. THIS SHOULD SET UP US FOR DRIER AND FRESHER AIR THURSDAY...HOPING IT HOLDS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY TOO. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SOME LOW LEVEL WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PREVENT DENSE FOG...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV. CUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING RESTRICTIONS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING COULD VARY. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 06/28/14 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H L L L L L H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1131 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 852 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014 COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS UPPER TROF PIVOTS THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER BOWED LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEB AND WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH THE GREATEST RISK TOWARD CENTRAL SD. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED A LOT OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN SD...ESPECIALLY OVER PERKINS CO. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PERKINS COUNTY...WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN ESTIMATED BY RADAR. ANOTHER INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. HAVE UPDATED TO REMOVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NORTHEAST WY AND SOUTHWESTERN SD...WHILE ALSO CANCELLING THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF FAR WESTERN SD. THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE TROF...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN WY. WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PCPN LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. && .SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN TO CNTRL ROCKIES AREA WITH SEVERAL WAVES ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OVER WY TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. OBS SHOW A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STATIONED NEAR THE SD/WY BORDER...WITH 10+ DEGREE TEMP DIFFERENCE FROM NE WY TO WRN SD. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER FORCING SLIDES NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT WAVE. KUDX RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS/STORMS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. STRONGEST CAPE WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS CNTRL SD AT 1500 J/KG...OTHERWISE WEAK CAPE ACROSS NE WY WILL HINDER ANY SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG UPDRAFTS AND LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL. NAM KEEPS DCAPE WEAK OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT LATEST RAP DOES BRING SOME HIGHER DCAPE TO WRN SD SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH HAIL. HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVNG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND AN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS. WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A SERIES OF WAVES CROSSING THE REGION. DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY WEAK ACROSS THE CWA...BUT ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO POP UP ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY DISSIPATE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014 DRIER WX WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHES TO OUR EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND IT FROM WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...MOVING INTO THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE READINGS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE AND BRING A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014 MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LINGERING POCKET OF MVFR CIGS OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL BLACK HILLS AND NE WY ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE INVOF OF KGCC TONIGHT...BEFORE LL FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH DRY AIR MIXING DOWN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA SAT...BRINGING SCT SHRA/TS TO THE FA...ESP NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA IN THE AFTERNOON. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...26 SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM...JOHNSON AVIATION...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1129 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014 .AVIATION... MVFR CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE I-35 TAF SITES AND WILL BEGIN THE 06Z TAFS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN OVER 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS A LLJ SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD PREVENT IFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE MAINLY AROUND DAYBREAK. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EAST OF THE TAF SITES. HAMPSHIRE && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/ UPDATE... COASTAL PLAINS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TAPERING OFF EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF LAVACA COUNTY WITHIN THE HOUR...OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT...FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD AFFECT THE NORTHWEST PART OF VAL VERDE COUNTY. THESE STORMS ARE PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A DRY-LINE OVER WEST TEXAS. IF THE STORMS DO MAKE IT INTO NORTHWEST VAL VERDE COUNTY...COULD PRODUCE FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. A DRYING TREND IS IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEA BREEZE CONVECTION TYPE SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WILL GRADUALLY END AROUND SUNSET. HRRR AND GFS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKING IT INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL END OF FORCING FROM MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF NM INTO WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE A LOW 10-20 POP OUT ACROSS VAL VERDE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TONIGHT. THE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HANGS ON ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 INTO SATURDAY. ONE MORE DAY OF ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BEFORE DRYING TAKES PLACE. LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID LEVEL DRYING IS INDICATED BY MODELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... WITH FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING JUST TO NORTH. WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE TAKES PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BENEATH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN TEMPS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 92 78 93 76 / 10 20 10 - - AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 76 93 77 93 76 / 10 20 10 - - NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 77 94 77 / 10 20 10 - - BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 90 75 90 73 / 10 20 10 - - DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 96 78 95 77 / 10 - - - - GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 76 92 75 / 10 20 10 - - HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 92 76 94 75 / 10 10 10 - - SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 92 77 93 77 / 10 20 10 - - LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 92 78 92 77 / 20 20 10 - - SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 92 78 94 77 / 10 20 10 - - STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 93 78 94 77 / 10 20 10 - - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26 SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
253 AM PDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A FINAL FEW SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW THIS WEEKEND WITH A STRONG WESTERLY JET ALOFT. THE JET WILL SHIFT N BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND THEN A SURFACE HIGH PRES SYSTEM WILL BUILD OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND EARLY IN THE WEEK TO BRING A RETURN TO DRY WARM WEATHER. && .SHORT TERM...A FEW SHOWERS REMAINED ON RADAR EARLY SAT MORNING... MAINLY OFF THE S WA AND FAR N OREGON PART OF THE COAST. A STRONG JET REMAINED ACROSS THE N PACIFIC EXTENDING INLAND OVER FAR NORTHERN OREGON. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRACKING E INTO WA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE JET AXIS SLOWLY LIFTS N INTO WA. THE MOST OBVIOUS OF THE WAVES IS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES THIS MORNING N OF 45N CROSSING 135W. MODELS BRING THIS WAVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ON A TRACK N OF THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABAILITY BELOW ABOUT 700 MB TODAY...BUT IN TIME THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS...GRADUALLY REDUCING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. OVERALL WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...INDICATING THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TODAY ESP IN THE N...THEN DECREASING SAT NIGHT AND SUN. BY SUN NIGHT AND MON AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY. THIS RESULTS IN A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TEMPS FOR MON. .LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY...SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS. INLAND HIGHS WILL BE CREEPING UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TUESDAY...BEFORE THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIGINATING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA DRIFTING EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN A MARINE PUSH...COOLING TEMPERATURES OFF BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. WILL SEE THE RETURN OF MARINE STRATUS PUSHING INLAND ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND THROUGH COASTAL GAPS OVERNIGHT...THEN AFTERNOON SUN. EXPECT A STRONGER MARINE PUSH NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /27 && .AVIATION...SHOWERS RETURN TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND LIFTS NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR ON THE COAST WITH CIGS IN THE 1500-2500 FT RANGE THROUGH THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. INLAND AREAS GENERALLY VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR THROUGH MIDDAY. MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE 2000-3000 FT RANGE. KPDX AND APPROACHES...EXPECT VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE ARE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVER THE APPROACHES AT 10Z AND IT LOOK LIKE IT WILL PROBABLY REACH KPDX AS WELL FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING. MORE ACTIVE SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON COULD BRIEFLY BRING MVFR CIGS AS WELL. && .MARINE...A LOW PRES CENTER WILL PERSIST NEAR THE NORTHERN B.C. COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE PACNW. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KT BUT TODAY THERE WILL PROBABLY BE GUSTS 20 KT AS A WEAK TROUGH NEARS THE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST TO THE SOUTH WHERE WINDS WILL PERIODICALLY BLOW GREATER THAN 25 KT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH OVERALL HEIGHTS DROPPING AROUND 5 FEET THEN A W-NW SWELL WILL BUILD AND PEAK NEAR 9 FEET SUNDAY. TJ/MH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...NONE. WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING. && $$ MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 230 AM PDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue over much of the region in some shape or form until Monday. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. A drying trend will begin on Monday with more summer-like temperatures expected through mid-week. The next round of showers and thunderstorms may arrive by the end of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Sunday: The shortwave disturbance that produced the thunderstorms yesterday is slowly shifting across eastern WA and into the ID Panhandle at 2:00 AM. We are still hanging on to some lingering showers with this wave over the basin, but the best mid level instability and lift will be across the Panhandle through the early morning. This is where I expect the heaviest rainfall to occur and some lingering isolated thunderstorms to continue in the morning. This system will shift into MT by the late morning hours with some weak shortwave ridging building into the region by the afternoon. Models do show drier air moving into the basin today. This will result in much less instability over the basin compared to yesterday and may result in a dry day for the Moses Lake Area and much of the Upper Columbia Basin. Moisture is not expected to mix out much across the mountains where dew points will remain in the lower, including over the Okanogan Highlands, Northeast Mtns and in the ID Panhandle. These areas will likely see showers redevelop in the afternoon with isolated thunderstorms possible. How much showers activity we see out in the Spokane Area and on the Palouse is a tough call. I think the Spokane Area will see a decent chance for showers in the afternoon due to the fact that current dew points are in the mid 50s. Showers are likely to be less prevalent further south for locations such as Pullman/Moscow and the L-C Valley. There is another shortwave trough of lower pressure approaching the region in the eastern Pacific. This upper level disturbance is located west of Vancouver Island at 130W. Forcing associated with this wave will approach the Cascade Mtns in the afternoon, and then spread across eastern WA and into the Panhandle overnight. Best lift and precip chances will likely be across the northern mtns. The cold pool associated with this final disturbance, before the ridge builds in, will linger across the northeastern portion of the forecast area on Sunday. This will result in more scattered showers for Sunday afternoon primarily across the northern mtns and in the ID Panhandle. Showers will be even less likely across the basin, into the Spokane Area and down to the L-C Valley for Sunday. Temperatures over the weekend should rebound a little bit, but will remain below seasonal normals. Expect high temperatures generally in the mid 60s to upper 70s for most locations across the Inland Northwest. /SVH Sun Nt through Thurs: Following an isolated shower threat along the Idaho/Montana border Sun Nt under unstable NW steering flow, a quick transition to upper height rises/warming temps aloft will commence as the next cool front approaches the Pac NW coast Tue. The low-level thermal ridge (axis of warmest temps) also surges north...with the warmest temps within this ridge peaking Tues and Wed before a cool-down associated with the passage of the aforementioned front Wed or Thurs. We have our lowest uncertainty of the timing of this fropa for Thurs, with model guidance showing quite a difference as far as how quickly east the front (and cooler wx) advances across Ern Wa and N Id. For pcpn, we did not make big changes to the fcst and kept the best chance for isolated thunder limited to Wed- Thurs. Gusty winds along and near the E Slopes of the Cascades will become a possible issue beginning as early as Tues...then increasing Wed and Thurs as the marine boundary lyr deepens across the interior of Wrn Oregon/Wa.bz Thursday Night through Saturday night: A fairly benign far extended forecast is in store for the Inland Northwest, including the 4th of July Holiday. The ridge that will have brought very warm temperatures mid week should shift east of the region, being replaced by a trough sitting off the Pacific Northwest coastline. Temperatures will be a degree or two cooler on Friday, with similar temperatures on Saturday. Precipitation chances will be kept to a minimum each day due to very dry low levels over most locations. The exception may be over far southeast WA and adjacent areas of the Idaho Panhandle on Friday. Some slightly better moisture may advect into these areas, which, depending on timing, could allow for some brief precipitation development. ty && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: Not too much of a change to the synoptic setup keeping a cool upper level trof containing a somewhat moist and unstable airmass overhead. The same trof is steering a number of weather disturbances in a southwest to northeast trajectory through it over the aviation area of Northeast Washington and Northern for the next 24 hours. MVFR ceilings seem to be the longest lingering issue of note. Additionally any of the stronger pulse thunderstorms that occur may bring some heavy rain and small hail. /Pelatti && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 70 51 71 50 78 55 / 40 40 20 10 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 66 48 70 48 77 51 / 60 40 40 20 0 0 Pullman 69 48 69 45 76 48 / 30 10 10 0 0 0 Lewiston 76 55 77 53 83 56 / 20 10 10 0 0 0 Colville 70 48 72 48 83 52 / 70 60 40 20 0 0 Sandpoint 62 47 67 44 76 47 / 80 50 50 20 10 0 Kellogg 61 47 64 47 74 54 / 80 40 40 20 0 0 Moses Lake 81 54 80 54 86 56 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 79 56 78 56 85 63 / 20 10 10 0 0 0 Omak 78 52 79 51 88 56 / 40 40 20 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1040 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue over much of the region in some shape or form until Monday. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Unsettled weather will prevail into the weekend...especially for locations near the Canadian border. A drying trend will begin on Monday with more summer- like temperatures expected through mid- week. The next round of showers and thunderstorms may arrive by the end of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... A reminder: As the Spokane radar is still out for maintenance the regional radar mosaic products will underdo their depiction of shower and thunderstorm activity in the area. Have been relying on IR satellite imagery, lightning detection equipment, and spotter reports to fine tune what short term models like the HRRR have been depiction this evening and overnight. Most of the coldest cloud tops on IR satellite imagery associated with the more intense shower and thunderstorms is up in extreme Northeast Washington and North Idaho and working its way out. There are still going to be showers in the area but their cloud tops are not as high in comparison to those thunderstorms and as such are much more difficult to pick out from the IR satellite imagery right now. So until Monday this trofy active flow pattern sticks around making it a cluttered and messy forecast this weekend. There seems to be more potential for shortwave passage for the remainder of tonight and for much of Saturday. The flow becomes a bit more zonal rather than trofy Sunday which may mean a rain shadow between the cascade crest higher terrain of North Idaho may have a better chance of keeping the lowlands (including Spokane and Coeur d` Alene) dry for most of Sunday but this is still not a certainty with a flat zonal flow in place. What can be said now is that ridge amplification indeed takes place Monday of next week and rids the area of the active flow pattern which allows for a considerably drier and warmer forecast in comparison to this weekend. With so much going on there may not be much in a way of an update to the text based products while short term grid updates are more likely to occur. /Pelatti && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: Not too much of a change to the synoptic setup keeping a cool upper level trof containing a somewhat moist and unstable airmass ovehead. The same trof is steering a number of weather disturbances in a southwest to northeast trajectory through it over the aviation area of Northeast Washington and Northern for the next 24 hours. MVFR ceilings seem to be the longest lingering issue of note. Additionally any of the stronger pulse thunderstorms that occur may bring some heavy rain and small hail. /Pelatti && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 52 71 51 71 50 77 / 60 40 30 20 10 0 Coeur d`Alene 52 68 48 70 48 75 / 70 50 40 20 20 0 Pullman 50 71 48 69 45 75 / 60 30 10 10 10 0 Lewiston 56 77 55 77 53 83 / 60 20 10 10 0 0 Colville 51 70 48 72 48 80 / 80 70 40 30 20 0 Sandpoint 52 64 47 67 44 75 / 80 90 50 30 20 10 Kellogg 49 62 47 64 47 73 / 80 80 30 20 20 0 Moses Lake 56 79 54 80 54 84 / 10 20 10 0 0 0 Wenatchee 58 78 56 78 56 85 / 10 20 10 0 0 0 Omak 53 77 52 79 51 85 / 20 30 10 10 10 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1047 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .DISCUSSION... 1047 AM CDT SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED MCV OVER WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS TWIRLING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS PRETTY EXTENSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...THOUGH NARROW RIBBON OF SOME CLEARING OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME BETTER INSOLATION AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY. ILX AND DVN SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING WERE VERY MOIST AND MODIFYING FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA YIELD MLCAPE VALUES NEARING 2000 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CINH. ALREADY SEEING SOME CONVECTION BEGIN TO POP WITHIN THAT CLEARING AREA AND SUSPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH COVERAGE INCREASING OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF CWA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN PULSY AND RATHER UNORGANIZED STORMS. ANY CLEARING OF THE MID LEVEL DECK UPSTREAM COULD ALSO BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTIVE TEMP TO BE REACHED AND SCTD STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. OVERALL THINK GOING FORECAST OF ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ADEQUATELY COVERS EXPECTATIONS. MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS LOOKING LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND HAVE SHAVED HIGHS TODAY DOWN BY NEARLY A CATEGORY...THOUGH WITH JUICY DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 IT WILL STILL FEEL PRETTY TOASTY. IZZI && .PREV DISCUSSION... 355 AM CDT MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES WITH WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN GRADUAL COOLING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE WEATHER FOR THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY...WITH SIGNS OF WARMER WEATHER RETURNING OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RATHER INDISTINCT SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITHIN BROAD SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND DEW POINTS OF 65-70 IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM 06Z RAP DEPICTING LITTLE/NO CAP AND MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BY MID/LATE MORNING. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FOCUS SUGGESTS ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS NOTED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING HOWEVER...WITH SOME PERSISTENT WEAK RADAR RETURNS VICINITY KBMI EVIDENCE OF VORT. PRESENCE OF THIS WEAK WAVE AND EARLY DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING WITH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA PERHAPS MORE FAVORED GIVEN TRACK OF VORT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/EML SEEN IN UPSTREAM TOP/SGF 00Z SOUNDINGS WILL APPROACH LATER IN THE DAY PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS... WHICH MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE CAPPING BY AFTERNOON WHICH ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA MAY LIMIT COVERAGE AT THAT TIME...THOUGH DIURNAL PEAK HEATING WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A FEW SCATTERED STORMS TO CONTINUE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.7 INCHES. A GREATER CHANCE OF MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE PROPAGATES FROM THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MODEST ORGANIZED HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS MODESTLY INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON 30-35 KT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP OFFSET POOR DIURNAL TIMING...THOUGH HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH LOWER RANGE OF GUIDANCE POPS WITH HIGH CHANCE/50 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE LATE NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING PERIOD. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A PONTIAC TO GARY LINE...AND LOWERED POPS TO A SLIGHT 20 PERCENT NORTHWEST OF IT. LARGE SCALE FORCING DECREASES BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE MLCAPE WITH LITTLE/NO CAP ACROSS THE REGION. GFS AND LOCAL WRF RUN DEPICT A STRONGER CAP WHICH APPEARS A BIT MORE LIKELY GIVEN HEIGHT RISES...SUPPORTING LOW/NIL POPS ACROSS NORTHERN IL FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS ACROSS PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RESULTING INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS AREAS TO OUR WEST. OUR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION AND SURFACE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY. GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED DEEP SHEAR WITH STRONGER JET ALOFT...AND INSTABILITY FED BY POOLING OF HIGHER DEW POINT AIR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...AS DEPICTED IN SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE WAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOL WITH TEMPS FRIDAY...AND IT APPEARS THIS BIAS CONTINUES TODAY...SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS NUMBERS BASED ON LOCAL 850 HPA TEMP CLIMO...THOUGH INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY COMPLICATE THINGS A BIT. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE VERY WARM...LOW 90S IN SPOTS...DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. ONCE COLD FRONT CLEARS AREA MONDAY NIGHT...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND SETS UP FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES NOTED TUES-WED WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS THOSE DAYS...BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY THE 4TH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLEASANT HOLIDAY WEATHER WITH TEMPS NEAR 80 AND 70S NEAR THE LAKE. LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. RATZER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z... * ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MID MORNING THRU LATE AFTERNOON. * GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS MID MORNING THRU SUNSET. * CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY MORNING. CMS/BMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z... A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO AID TSRA DEVELOPMENT BUT TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH HI RES/SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST SHRA DEVELOPMENT BY MID MORNING. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...AS TEMPS WARM DURING THE MORNING...SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. BUT BEST TIMING FOR TSRA APPEARS TO BE IN THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE ARRIVES. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. ADDITIONAL TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST TODAY AND THEN MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY/MID SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW REGARDING HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE TERMINALS. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 12-16KT RANGE THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE 20KT RANGE AND WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE MORNING. CMS //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z... * MEDIUM FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MID MORNING THRU LATE AFTERNOON...LOW FOR COVERAGE AND TIMING. * MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. * LOW FOR SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY MORNING. CMS/BMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z... * SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF TSRA LATE. * MONDAY...TSRA LIKELY. * TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. * THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. && .MARINE... 240 AM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA TO KANSAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH FORMING A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN AS THIS OCCURS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING JAMES BAY TUESDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...ON MONDAY. WINDS THEN SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE BUT WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT HAZE/PATCHY DENSE FOG WORDING. CMS && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
905 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .DISCUSSION... 355 AM CDT MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES WITH WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN GRADUAL COOLING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE WEATHER FOR THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY...WITH SIGNS OF WARMER WEATHER RETURNING OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RATHER INDISTINCT SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITHIN BROAD SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND DEW POINTS OF 65-70 IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM 06Z RAP DEPICTING LITTLE/NO CAP AND MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BY MID/LATE MORNING. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FOCUS SUGGESTS ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS NOTED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING HOWEVER...WITH SOME PERSISTENT WEAK RADAR RETURNS VICINITY KBMI EVIDENCE OF VORT. PRESENCE OF THIS WEAK WAVE AND EARLY DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING WITH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA PERHAPS MORE FAVORED GIVEN TRACK OF VORT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/EML SEEN IN UPSTREAM TOP/SGF 00Z SOUNDINGS WILL APPROACH LATER IN THE DAY PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS... WHICH MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE CAPPING BY AFTERNOON WHICH ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA MAY LIMIT COVERAGE AT THAT TIME...THOUGH DIURNAL PEAK HEATING WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A FEW SCATTERED STORMS TO CONTINUE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.7 INCHES. A GREATER CHANCE OF MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE PROPAGATES FROM THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MODEST ORGANIZED HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS MODESTLY INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON 30-35 KT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP OFFSET POOR DIURNAL TIMING...THOUGH HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH LOWER RANGE OF GUIDANCE POPS WITH HIGH CHANCE/50 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE LATE NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING PERIOD. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A PONTIAC TO GARY LINE...AND LOWERED POPS TO A SLIGHT 20 PERCENT NORTHWEST OF IT. LARGE SCALE FORCING DECREASES BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE MLCAPE WITH LITTLE/NO CAP ACROSS THE REGION. GFS AND LOCAL WRF RUN DEPICT A STRONGER CAP WHICH APPEARS A BIT MORE LIKELY GIVEN HEIGHT RISES...SUPPORTING LOW/NIL POPS ACROSS NORTHERN IL FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS ACROSS PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RESULTING INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS AREAS TO OUR WEST. OUR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION AND SURFACE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY. GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED DEEP SHEAR WITH STRONGER JET ALOFT...AND INSTABILITY FED BY POOLING OF HIGHER DEW POINT AIR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...AS DEPICTED IN SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE WAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOL WITH TEMPS FRIDAY...AND IT APPEARS THIS BIAS CONTINUES TODAY...SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS NUMBERS BASED ON LOCAL 850 HPA TEMP CLIMO...THOUGH INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY COMPLICATE THINGS A BIT. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE VERY WARM...LOW 90S IN SPOTS...DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. ONCE COLD FRONT CLEARS AREA MONDAY NIGHT...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND SETS UP FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES NOTED TUES-WED WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS THOSE DAYS...BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY THE 4TH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLEASANT HOLIDAY WEATHER WITH TEMPS NEAR 80 AND 70S NEAR THE LAKE. LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. RATZER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z... * ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MID MORNING THRU LATE AFTERNOON. * GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS MID MORNING THRU SUNSET. * CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY MORNING. CMS/BMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z... A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO AID TSRA DEVELOPMENT BUT TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH HI RES/SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST SHRA DEVELOPMENT BY MID MORNING. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...AS TEMPS WARM DURING THE MORNING...SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. BUT BEST TIMING FOR TSRA APPEARS TO BE IN THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE ARRIVES. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. ADDITIONAL TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST TODAY AND THEN MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY/MID SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW REGARDING HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE TERMINALS. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 12-16KT RANGE THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE 20KT RANGE AND WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE MORNING. CMS //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z... * MEDIUM FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MID MORNING THRU LATE AFTERNOON...LOW FOR COVERAGE AND TIMING. * MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. * LOW FOR SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY MORNING. CMS/BMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z... * SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF TSRA LATE. * MONDAY...TSRA LIKELY. * TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. * THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. && .MARINE... 240 AM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA TO KANSAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH FORMING A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN AS THIS OCCURS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING JAMES BAY TUESDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...ON MONDAY. WINDS THEN SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE BUT WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT HAZE/PATCHY DENSE FOG WORDING. CMS && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
635 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .DISCUSSION... 355 AM CDT MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES WITH WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN GRADUAL COOLING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE WEATHER FOR THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY...WITH SIGNS OF WARMER WEATHER RETURNING OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RATHER INDISTINCT SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITHIN BROAD SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND DEW POINTS OF 65-70 IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM 06Z RAP DEPICTING LITTLE/NO CAP AND MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BY MID/LATE MORNING. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FOCUS SUGGESTS ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS NOTED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING HOWEVER...WITH SOME PERSISTENT WEAK RADAR RETURNS VICINITY KBMI EVIDENCE OF VORT. PRESENCE OF THIS WEAK WAVE AND EARLY DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING WITH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA PERHAPS MORE FAVORED GIVEN TRACK OF VORT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/EML SEEN IN UPSTREAM TOP/SGF 00Z SOUNDINGS WILL APPROACH LATER IN THE DAY PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS... WHICH MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE CAPPING BY AFTERNOON WHICH ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA MAY LIMIT COVERAGE AT THAT TIME...THOUGH DIURNAL PEAK HEATING WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A FEW SCATTERED STORMS TO CONTINUE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.7 INCHES. A GREATER CHANCE OF MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE PROPAGATES FROM THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MODEST ORGANIZED HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS MODESTLY INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON 30-35 KT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP OFFSET POOR DIURNAL TIMING...THOUGH HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH LOWER RANGE OF GUIDANCE POPS WITH HIGH CHANCE/50 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE LATE NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING PERIOD. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A PONTIAC TO GARY LINE...AND LOWERED POPS TO A SLIGHT 20 PERCENT NORTHWEST OF IT. LARGE SCALE FORCING DECREASES BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE MLCAPE WITH LITTLE/NO CAP ACROSS THE REGION. GFS AND LOCAL WRF RUN DEPICT A STRONGER CAP WHICH APPEARS A BIT MORE LIKELY GIVEN HEIGHT RISES...SUPPORTING LOW/NIL POPS ACROSS NORTHERN IL FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS ACROSS PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RESULTING INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS AREAS TO OUR WEST. OUR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION AND SURFACE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY. GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED DEEP SHEAR WITH STRONGER JET ALOFT...AND INSTABILITY FED BY POOLING OF HIGHER DEW POINT AIR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...AS DEPICTED IN SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE WAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOL WITH TEMPS FRIDAY...AND IT APPEARS THIS BIAS CONTINUES TODAY...SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS NUMBERS BASED ON LOCAL 850 HPA TEMP CLIMO...THOUGH INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY COMPLICATE THINGS A BIT. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE VERY WARM...LOW 90S IN SPOTS...DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. ONCE COLD FRONT CLEARS AREA MONDAY NIGHT...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND SETS UP FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES NOTED TUES-WED WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS THOSE DAYS...BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY THE 4TH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLEASANT HOLIDAY WEATHER WITH TEMPS NEAR 80 AND 70S NEAR THE LAKE. LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. RATZER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z... * ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MID MORNING THRU LATE AFTERNOON. * GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS MID MORNING THRU SUNSET. * CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY MORNING. CMS //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z... A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO AID TSRA DEVELOPMENT BUT TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH HI RES/SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST SHRA DEVELOPEMENT BY MID MORNING. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...AS TEMPS WARM DURING THE MORNING...SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. BUT BEST TIMING FOR TSRA APPEARS TO BE IN THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE ARRIVES. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. ADDITIONAL TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST TODAY AND THEN MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY/MID SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW REGARDING HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE TERMINALS. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 12-16KT RANGE THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE 20KT RANGE AND WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE MORNING. CMS //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z... * MEDIUM FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MID MORNING THRU LATE AFTERNOON...LOW FOR COVERAGE AND TIMING. * MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. * LOW FOR SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY MORNING. CMS //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z... * SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF TSRA LATE. * MONDAY...TSRA LIKELY. * TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. * THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. && .MARINE... 240 AM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA TO KANSAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH FORMING A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN AS THIS OCCURS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING JAMES BAY TUESDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...ON MONDAY. WINDS THEN SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE BUT WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT HAZE/PATCHY DENSE FOG WORDING. CMS && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
622 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 312 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 08Z water vapor imagery and profiler data shows a negatively tilted mid level trough from southwest KS northwest through the NEB panhandle and into northeastern WY. At the surface, obs show a general trough of low pressure from the southern highs plains through the Dakotas with a moist airmass over central and eastern KS. Moisture advection from the low level jet has helped keep the broken line of showers and thunderstorms going as the whole line slowly progresses east. The forecast anticipates this line of storms to gradually weaken as the low level jet slowly veers to the southwest and moisture convergence diminishes. However by the late morning or early afternoon, models bring the trough axis across northeast KS with good forcing for precip to redevelop. The strength of the storms this afternoon will hinge on how much destabilization is able to occur. This is most likely over far eastern KS where some insolation may take place. However deep layer shear around 25 to 30 KTS is on the low end needed for good supercell structure. With this in mind there remains some uncertainty in how convection will evolve this afternoon and the extent for severe weather. Model progs of modest instability around 2000 J/kg, mainly over east central KS, suggests there is the potential for some hail and wind. Perhaps the greater hazard will be locally heavy rainfall. Concerned that with the remnant outflow boundary from this mornings convection nearly parallel to the mid level flow and PWs progged to be between 1.5 and 2 inches, that storms capable of heavy rainfall may tend to train north northeast along the boundary. Considered the need for a flash flood watch but have opted to hold off for now. Think that the upper trough and forcing for convection should remain progressive enough that the overall storms system should continue to propagate east. Additionally flash flood guidance for one hour is around 2 inches. Nevertheless later shifts will want to watch out for the flash flood potential. Cloud cover and occasional precip is expected to hold afternoon highs to around 80 or the lower 80s. Think precip should come to an end rather quickly this evening as the forcing from the upper trough rotates north and the right exit region of the upper jet and its associated subsidence overspreads northeast KS. Southerly winds should persist through the night since there is no strong front expected to move through the area due to the main surface wave forming north over the Dakotas. Therefore think temps will remain relatively mild with lows for Sunday morning around 70. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 312 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 Overnight showers and thunderstorms is expected to be east of the CWA Sunday morning with the focus shifting to hot and humid conditions for the afternoon. A broad surface trough of the central CONUS is expected to deepen and lift northward while a closed mid level wave shifts east over southern Canada. This will usher a cold front southeast across the high plains into central Nebraska by late afternoon. The tightening pressure gradient and associated gusty south winds will advect low to mid 70 dewpoint temps into the area. Temperatures also rise into the lower and middle 90s, boosting heat indices in the 100 to 103 degree range. A weakening capping inversion at h85 may allow a few thunderstorms firing ahead of the frontal boundary to impact areas near the Nebraska border by late afternoon. If they do, effective shear near 40 kts and ample instability support rotating updrafts capable of large hail and strong winds. Better thunderstorm chances exist as the cold front and precip shifts southeast towards the CWA Sunday evening. A stout 40 kt low level jet with elevated CAPE at or above 2000 J/KG would maintain a chance for isolated severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds. Current guidance trends are focusing on Monday afternoon for possible severe convection impacting a decent area of the CWA. Any existing showers will exit Monday morning with the atmosphere quickly destabilizing under mostly sunny skies. The cold front will continue to progress southeastward through the morning, reaching near the Interstate 70 corridor by late afternoon. Atmosphere profiles suggest dewpoints in the low 70s and some mid level cooling as a shortwave trough crossing the central plains. Weakening inhibition will give way to near 4000 J/KG of surface CAPE as 0-6 KM shear values back and increase to 40 kts. Given this environment, scattered severe convection may develop along and ahead of the boundary through early evening. Very large hail and damaging winds would be the primary hazards. Afternoon highs ahead of the boundary peak in the low to perhaps middle 90s with Tuesday morning lows in the upper 60s. Latest GFS and ECMWF maintain slightly variability on where the frontal boundary and embedded shortwave trough stalls Tuesday. GFS is further north into the area while the ECMWF develops organized convection over southern Kansas. Not highly confident on precipitation chances and will leave slight mention south of the KS turnpike through Tuesday evening. It appears there may finally be a dry period Wednesday and Thursday as upper ridging builds into the area and organized vertical lift focuses southward. Within the northwest flow on the eastern edge of the ridge, could see overnight storms Thursday evening into Friday. Temperatures from Tuesday onward will cool below normal in the low to middle 80s. Drier air in place will make the apparent temperature feel a bit less humid. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Sunday Morning) Issued at 622 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 There is quite a bit of uncertainty in how TS will evolve today. Water vapor shows the mid level trough axis is still to the southwest and the RAP and NAM continue to develop new convection by the early afternoon over TOP and FOE. However with the outflow pushing south and east of the terminals, am wondering if thunderstorms development later today will be shifted southeast. Will stay the course since the NAM and RAP show development. Think precip will be ending by 00Z. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wolters LONG TERM...Bowen AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
603 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014 ...Updated aviation discussion... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 The 00z upper air analysis showed a 90 knot 250 millibar jet extending from Oregon into northeast New Mexico. Broad upper level troughing was in place from the Pacific Northwest into the central and southern High Plains. A shortwave trough was moving across eastern Colorado and New Mexico. Widespread thunderstorm activity was slowly propagating southeast over central and southwest Kansas early this morning. This activity was pushing an outflow boundary south across southwest Kansas. Moist southerly low level flow was riding up over the boundary and helping sustain the thunderstorm complex. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 Latest radar trends show the thunderstorm complex starting to weaken somewhat. RAP 850 wind analysis has indicated a low level jet from the Texas panhandle extending up into far southwest Kansas which has been helping sustain the overnight convection. Latest progs show the low level jet veering through the remainder of the early morning hours which should help usher the complex eastward into central Kansas. Will keep some high chance pops going over central Kansas through the morning hours but the precipitation should come to an end as the mid level shortwave moves east of the region. The models continue to keep the low level boundary lingering in south central Kansas later this afternoon. There could be some additional thunderstorm development later this afternoon/early evening along the boundary if it does get hung up in that area but with the upper level dynamics shifting off to the east, any thunderstorm activity should diminish fairly early this evening with the remainder of the night staying dry. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 Upper level westerly flow lifts into the northern part of the country on Sunday. The westerly flow will result in a surface low pressure trough in the lee of the Rockies. A weak fast moving shortwave trough will push east through the northern plains. This could bring a few showers and thunderstorms to the area around I-70 during the afternoon and evening. A cold front will push south across western Kansas Monday afternoon and night as a strong shortwave moves through the northern Plains. Low level moisture will continue to stream northward into the central Plains and impinge on the front, bringing another round of thunderstorms to much of southwest Kansas. With saturated soil conditions from tonight`s and previous days rains, flood and/or flash flood headlines may be necessary. The models show the front moving far enough south to bring a break in rainfall across Southwest Kansas by Tuesday night into Wednesday. Later in the week, upper level ridging will build from the western states into the central part of the country. We should see a trend toward somewhat warmer temperatures along with continued small chances for thunderstorms through Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 Scattered thunderstorms around Hays and Dodge City will gradually move off to the east and southeast of those TAF sites early this morning. VFR conditions will prevail through much of the day. Later this afternoon, widely scattered thunderstorms could develop over parts of central and southwest Kansas. Will carry VCTS at Hays for a few hours late this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 88 66 94 72 / 20 20 10 10 GCK 88 65 95 70 / 10 10 10 10 EHA 92 62 100 70 / 10 0 10 10 LBL 91 66 98 73 / 10 10 10 10 HYS 86 66 94 71 / 50 10 20 20 P28 87 69 93 75 / 50 30 10 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gerard SHORT TERM...Gerard LONG TERM...Gerard AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
430 AM MDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT SAT JUN 28 2014 UPDATE SENT TO ADJUST POPS THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECIP TO THE EAST EXITING A BIT FASTER WHILE TO THE WEST A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS ABOUT TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA. 09Z RUC BRINGS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING SO HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME ITS PASSAGE IN THE GRIDS. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SAT JUN 28 2014 TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY COVERING THE FAR EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE OR PERHAPS 15Z THIS MORNING. AROUND 18Z OR SO DRYLINE/WIND SHIFT EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR EAST WHERE CIN IS WEAK THUS CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AM EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION OUT THE WAY TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS DRYER AIR MOVES IN. FOR TONIGHT 06Z NAM AND A LESSER EXTENT 00Z GFS SHOWING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH WEAKENING INHIBITION ON NOSE OF 850 JET PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT PRESENT TIME AND LET NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE BORDER. SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...A FEW WEATHER DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MAY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA BY 18Z (COULD BE EXTENSION FOR POSSIBLE STORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY/MORNING) WHERE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE WORKS WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND AREA INHIBITION IS FURTHER WEAKENED AND CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM SO I HAVE EXPECTED THE COVERAGE FURTHER WEST. THESE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN OR AT LEAST MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 90S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. A FEW LOW 70S POSSIBLE IN THE NORTON TO HILL CITY TO GOVE AREAS AND POINTS EAST. MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE REACHING THE WESTERN 1/3-1/2 OF THE AREA BY DAYS END...SLIDING SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO POP/WX FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH 80S FOR MOST...MAYBE SOME 90S FROM HILL CITY TO GOVE AND LEOTI. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. NORTH WINDS 15-20 MPH AND GUSTY MONDAY MORNING SLOWLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE ALSO SLOWLY DECREASING IN SPEED DURING THE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SAT JUN 28 2014 MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. A SYNOPTIC SCALE BOUNDARY FORCED BY A PRECEDING SHORTWAVE WILL BE ORIENTED EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. RELATIVELY DRY NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DEEPER AND MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THESE SHORTWAVES AND CONSEQUENTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING RISING HEIGHTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED THAN GFS. EITHER WAY A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT WARMING ALOFT OCCURS...MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND SHARPENING LEE TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SAT JUN 28 2014 KGLD...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AT TAF ISSUANCE FORECAST TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SPEEDS FALL BELOW 12KTS. FOR TONIGHT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS NEAR 10KTS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE 05Z-08Z TIMEFRAME SUNDAY MORNING. KMCK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WEST WINDS AT TAF ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10KTS THROUGH 18Z THEN INCREASE INTO THE 10-13KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 06KTS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE 08Z-12Z TIMEFRAME SUNDAY MORNING. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...99 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...BRB AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
935 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 UPDATED FORECAST TO REFINE POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 UPDATED THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE POPS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE DENSE VALLEY FOG AS THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES AT BAY. FINALLY...DID TWEAK THE T/TD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WITH A NEW ZFP TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AND A WASHED OUT STATIONARY BOUNDARY STREWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WHILE THE LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOW THE REMAINS OF EARLIER SHOWERS DYING OUT JUST SOUTH OF JKL...ON SATELLITE...A MASS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST...OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND INTO KENTUCKY. THESE CLOUDS ARE HELPING TO KEEP THE FOG TO A MINIMUM SO FAR THIS NIGHT DESPITE THE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL DURING THE PAST DAY. SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...MAKING FOR A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION AND DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE NATION. THE CORE OF THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT BRUSHING PAST THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWERING HEIGHTS A TAD INTO SUNDAY. A FEW WAVES OF ENERGY WILL PASS OVER KENTUCKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE WEAK SOUTHEAST RIDGE. ONE OF THESE IS PASSING THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ANOTHER DECENT ONE WILL PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST OVER KENTUCKY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY SUNDAY. WITH THE MODEL AGREEMENT...FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR THE NEAR TERM. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WARM...HUMID...AND STORMY COUPLE OF DAYS AS THAT WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER EAST KENTUCKY...PWS OVER 1.8 INCHES. THE CONVECTION WILL BE AMPLIFIED BY THE DIURNAL CYCLE...PEAKING LATE EACH AFTERNOON AND LINGERING WELL INTO THE EVENING. THE GRIDS WHERE CREATED WITH THIS IN MIND...MAKING FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY THAN WE SAW ON FRIDAY AND POPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60 PERCENT RANGE. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT GOING AT ALL TIMES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY... BUT PROBABLY NOT TOO EXTENSIVE OR THICK GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. SIMILARLY...THE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY SMALL. AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN THE BCCONSALL THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RIDGE AND VALLEY SPOTS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP PRETTY CLOSE TO THE RATHER WET GFS MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE APPALACHIANS...ALONG WITH A STREAM OF WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE GULF AIR INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY MONDAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...PULLING THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WITH IT. BY OVERNIGHT...LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...AND A BRIEF LULL IN THE SYNOPTIC ACTIVITY...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO REMOVE CONVECTIVE CHANCES ALL TOGETHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS LULL IN THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...THIS WILL SERVE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS AND EVENTUALLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. UNFORTUNATELY...RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL PREVENT ANY QUICK FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH KY. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONVECTIVE CHANCES ONCE MORE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THIS POINT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE EXTENDED DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE RIDGING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND ALLOWING THE SURFACE FEATURES TO FINALLY PROGRESS ALONG THE SAME PATTERN. AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH KY THURSDAY...WINDS WILL HAVE TURNED TO A NRLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL PULL IN A MUCH ANTICIPATED DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. PRECIP CHANCES WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THIS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE MORE NORTHERN FLOW...REACHING THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL TAKE A STRONG HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL TAKE PLACE HOWEVER...WITH GOOD SOLAR RADIATION...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ON THE RISE ONCE MORE. HIGHS WILL REACH BACK UP INTO UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ON THE SAME NOTE...LOSS OF RADIATION OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 JUST SOME MVFR FOG AROUND FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT THE SME AND LOZ SITES THEN ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TODAY...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT ANTICIPATED DURING THE 16 TO 22Z TIME FRAME. HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FOR THIS IN THE TAFS AND ALSO A TEMPO TO MVFR VIS DURING THE FOUR HOUR BLOCK OF BEST CHANCES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DID DROP THE VCTS BACK TO VCSH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH JUST LOCAL POCKETS OF BR EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
755 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 UPDATED THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE POPS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE DENSE VALLEY FOG AS THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES AT BAY. FINALLY...DID TWEAK THE T/TD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WITH A NEW ZFP TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AND A WASHED OUT STATIONARY BOUNDARY STREWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WHILE THE LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOW THE REMAINS OF EARLIER SHOWERS DYING OUT JUST SOUTH OF JKL...ON SATELLITE...A MASS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST...OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND INTO KENTUCKY. THESE CLOUDS ARE HELPING TO KEEP THE FOG TO A MINIMUM SO FAR THIS NIGHT DESPITE THE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL DURING THE PAST DAY. SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...MAKING FOR A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION AND DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE NATION. THE CORE OF THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT BRUSHING PAST THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWERING HEIGHTS A TAD INTO SUNDAY. A FEW WAVES OF ENERGY WILL PASS OVER KENTUCKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE WEAK SOUTHEAST RIDGE. ONE OF THESE IS PASSING THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ANOTHER DECENT ONE WILL PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST OVER KENTUCKY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY SUNDAY. WITH THE MODEL AGREEMENT...FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR THE NEAR TERM. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WARM...HUMID...AND STORMY COUPLE OF DAYS AS THAT WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER EAST KENTUCKY...PWS OVER 1.8 INCHES. THE CONVECTION WILL BE AMPLIFIED BY THE DIURNAL CYCLE...PEAKING LATE EACH AFTERNOON AND LINGERING WELL INTO THE EVENING. THE GRIDS WHERE CREATED WITH THIS IN MIND...MAKING FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY THAN WE SAW ON FRIDAY AND POPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60 PERCENT RANGE. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT GOING AT ALL TIMES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY... BUT PROBABLY NOT TOO EXTENSIVE OR THICK GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. SIMILARLY...THE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY SMALL. AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN THE BCCONSALL THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RIDGE AND VALLEY SPOTS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP PRETTY CLOSE TO THE RATHER WET GFS MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE APPALACHIANS...ALONG WITH A STREAM OF WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE GULF AIR INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY MONDAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...PULLING THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WITH IT. BY OVERNIGHT...LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...AND A BRIEF LULL IN THE SYNOPTIC ACTIVITY...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO REMOVE CONVECTIVE CHANCES ALL TOGETHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS LULL IN THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...THIS WILL SERVE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS AND EVENTUALLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. UNFORTUNATELY...RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL PREVENT ANY QUICK FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH KY. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONVECTIVE CHANCES ONCE MORE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THIS POINT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE EXTENDED DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE RIDGING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND ALLOWING THE SURFACE FEATURES TO FINALLY PROGRESS ALONG THE SAME PATTERN. AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH KY THURSDAY...WINDS WILL HAVE TURNED TO A NRLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL PULL IN A MUCH ANTICIPATED DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. PRECIP CHANCES WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THIS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE MORE NORTHERN FLOW...REACHING THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL TAKE A STRONG HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL TAKE PLACE HOWEVER...WITH GOOD SOLAR RADIATION...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ON THE RISE ONCE MORE. HIGHS WILL REACH BACK UP INTO UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ON THE SAME NOTE...LOSS OF RADIATION OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 JUST SOME MVFR FOG AROUND FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT THE SME AND LOZ SITES THEN ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TODAY...WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT ANTICIPATED DURING THE 16 TO 22Z TIME FRAME. HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FOR THIS IN THE TAFS AND ALSO A TEMPO TO MVFR VIS DURING THE FOUR HOUR BLOCK OF BEST CHANCES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DID DROP THE VCTS BACK TO VCSH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH JUST LOCAL POCKETS OF BR EXPECTED DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
702 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014 Convective trends are once again the primary forecast problem for today. Still plenty of moisture, and forecast soundings indicate a little more instability than yesterday. There is a well developed MCV over Oklahoma which will move northeast and produce another round of precipitation over western Missouri from late morning into the afternoon, and there is another subtle shortwave currently over western Missouri which the RUC and HRRR seem to be keying on to produce widely scattered convection over central and northeast Missouri early this morning. Have a pretty high confidence it will rain somewhere in the CWFA, sometime today due to these features, tho confidence is low on exact timing and coverage. Generally speaking tho we should see a general increase in coverage due to diurnal heating in the afternoon. MOS temperatures in the mid to upper 80s looked reasonable for highs today with 850mb temps in the 16-18C range, tho any convection will have a large impact on what highs actually turn out to be. Carney .LONG TERM: (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014 A strong storm system over the Plains currently will track east-northeast into IA and the Upper MS Valley tonight. This will tail a vorticity lobe into our region, and this should be plenty to work convection in and keep it going thru much of the night. This convection will probably come in two waves...the first working in during the evening having already formed further west earlier and then accelerating east and weakening. Enough shear and instability with what should be a mature enough development to warrant a risk for damaging winds in NE and Central MO. Another, more sustained, but likely not severe, wave of convection to then move thru overnight and should keep going--this being supported better by the upper level shortwave. Rain from this wave should then exit on Sunday morning with some redevelopment in the afternoon possible. A MCS is expected to form to our northwest over the Mid-MO valley Sunday night and then track eastward. The main effect will largely miss our region, but this should lay out a boundary for additional development Monday with anticipated destabilization on its south side. Once the synoptic cold front catches up with this Monday night and into Tuesday, should see higher PoPs for more widespread rain. With what should be a more northwesterly mid-level flow heading into the middle of next week, this front is expected to push well south, allowing for a series of cool high pressures to invade and settle in for the end of the week. A dry forecast is therefore in order for most areas to close out the 7-day forecast. Temps to remain at or above normal until about the middle of next week, peaking on Monday with widespread 90s expected. Temps Monday a bit questionable in the north with interference from MCS boundary and enhanced rain chances but I-70 and south, it looks hot. Afternoon heat index values may top out at close to 105 for STL metro and this will need to be watched for need of an Advisory. A couple of bonus nice days Wednesday and Thursday with maxes in the lo-mid 80s. Despite east-southeast flow on the 4th of July, rising heights to 590dm at h500 will warrant higher temps that day, but still looks to be mid-upper 80s for now. A more typical summertime ridging pattern aloft looks to be in store for the rest of the holiday weekend and into the following week with what could be a prolonged period of hot weather. Summer is here. TES && .AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning) Issued at 644 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014 Thunderstorms remain the primary concern for today. Expecting areas of MVFR and patchy IFR CIGS (primarily over Illinois) to lift through the morning. VFR flight conditions should prevail across the area by late morning or early afternoon. Then, expect widely scattered thunderstorms again this afternoon due to daytime heating. Currently, it looks like the best chance for storms will be over central Missouri where an outflow boundary from storms this morning over Kansas will combine with support from an upper level disturbance. Storms should weaken and dissipate somewhat after sunset, but there will be another chance of storms later Saturday night primarily over eastern Missouri and southwest Illinois as another disturbance moves across the area. Specifics for KSTL: Thunderstorms remain the primary concern for today. Any remaining threat of MVFR CIGS should be done by 14-15Z this morning. Attention then turns to thunderstorm chances, which will increase through the afternoon. Expect that widely scattered storms will decrease in coverage after peak heating as we lose instability. There will be another chance of thunderstorms overnight as an upper level disturbance moves across the area. VFR flight conditions are expected outside of storms. Carney && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
722 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY AND SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN SHORT TERM. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH NEBR AND INTO CNTRL KS WITH LARGE CONVECTIVE AREA ON ITS SERN FLANK WITH SECOND AREA LIFTING N ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE INTO ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND AND PROPAGATION/CORFIDI VECTORS FORECAST TO REMAIN SHORT. THUS HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A THREAT...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND MAINLY CNTRL/SERN SECTIONS. THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO SHIFT MORE INTO SERN ZONES LATER TODAY AS QG FORCING SHIFTS TO THE FAR SE...BUT SOME REDEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT WRN ZONES NEAR WEAKENING COOL FRONT ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS CAN DEVELOP PROVIDING A LITTLE ADDITIONAL BOOST TO CAPE VALUES. LONG STORY SHORTENED...WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. MORE DISCUSSION BELOW IN HYDRO SECTION. WILL COUNT ON A FEW...BUT NOT TOO MANY...BREAKS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY TO ALLOW MOST READINGS TO REACH NEAR 80. GENERALLY ON COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND LITTLE/NO CHANGE FROM PRIOR FORECAST. AMOUNT...IF ANY...LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING DEVELOPMENT ON WEAKENING COOL FRONT WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE MAIN CONVECTIVE CHANCE TO FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS MAY INFLUENCE WHETHER CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS EXTENDED LATER TODAY OR DROPPED AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS MORNING PLUS SHORT TERM FORECAST BECOMES BETTER ANALYZED. HOWEVER...LATER TONIGHT PRECIP CHANCES SEEM TO DECREASE EVEN MORE AS MUCH LESS STRONG/WIDESPREAD HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY TO HOLD TOGETHER LATER TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A EARLY DAY TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY ALONG BOUNDARY NEAR WRN ZONES AS MOISTURE RETURNS...CHANCES INCREASE MARKEDLY IN THE LATE AFTN HOURS AS HEATING SHOULD BE MUCH STRONGER THAN PAST FEW DAYS. MOST AREAS SHOULD APPROACH IF NOT EXCEED 90 DEGREES. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAIN POSSIBLE...SPECLY NRN ZONES...AS AREA REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF STRONG WRLY JET OVER SD PROVIDING IMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES TO GO ALONG WITH SBCAPES OF 4K OR MORE J/KG. EVOLUTION INTO THE EVENING AND THEN OVERNIGHT HOURS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN...AS SOME INDICATIONS THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR BOUNDARY INTO SCNTRL NEBR COULD SPREAD ACROSS SERN ZONES THRU 06Z POSSIBLY INFLUENCING IF NOT HINDERING LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY FARTHER N. ACTIVITY NRN ZONES COULD EXPERIENCE DECENT ECHO TRAINING NEAR AND AFTER 06Z AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUILD INTO SERN NEBR TOWARD 12Z MONDAY POSSIBLY LIMITING SWD DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT. IN OTHER WORDS...A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE AFTER IF NOT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SVR RISK...ALTHOUGH WHERE IT SETS UP IN FLUX. WILL CONTINUE TO HIT BOTH SVR AND HEAVY RAIN THREATS HARD IN HWO. INCREASED POPS NRN ZONES ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THAT AREA SEEMED MOST LIKELY. ALSO INCREASED POPS NERN/ERN AREAS MONDAY...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE MORNING AS SOME LINGERING POST FRONT PRECIP INDICATED BY 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF WITH LATTER 2 MODELS FORECASTING A MINOR WAVE ROTATING ACROSS SD ON SOUTH SIDE OF CANADIAN UPPER LOW. LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPS...NORTH AND NORTHEAST ZONES SHOULD BE COOLER...ESPECIALLY IF PRECIP LINGERS PAST MIDDAY...BUT SOME RECOVERY POSSIBLE SOUTH AHEAD OF FRONT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 GENERALLY COOLER AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL TUESDAY WITH ONLY A MODEST TEMP RECOVERY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOVES THE WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR TO OUR SOUTH. ALTHOUGH PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT APPEAR THAT GREAT...THEY DO INCREASE SOME LATER IN THE WEEK AS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RETURN AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING EWD. HOWEVER...CAP MAY INCREASE AS FAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE VALUES. PATTERN DOES LOOK MUCH LESS ACTIVE...HOWEVER...AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SHIFTING MORE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. && .AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.) ISSUED AT 720 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH A DIMINISHING AREA OF SHOWERS NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BORDER. A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS AT 12Z IS EXPECTED TO HELP TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DROPS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. SHORT RANGE RAP MODEL WANTS TO FOCUS MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD THIS IDEA WITH PRIMARILY VFR CONDITONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SINCE KOMA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY DID PUT IN PROB GROUP THERE FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ015-018- 030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056- 069-079-080-090-091. && $$ SHORT TERM...CHERMOK LONG TERM...CHERMOK AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
840 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE MOISTURE TODAY. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. FRONT WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 830 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED POP AND SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...MOISTURE A LITTLE SLOWER TO WORK INTO THE REGION THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... SOME FAIRLY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS TODAY. NAM IS THE SLOWEST BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE GFS IS THE FASTEST. RUC SEEMS TO REPRESENT A MIDDLE GROUND. LOOKING AT THE VAD WINDS...BELIEVE THAT THE NAM MAY HAVE TOO WEAK OF A FLOW AT 700 MB...SO WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE RUC SOLUTION. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR THE BEST DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FLANKS. WILL RUN THE HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS. MODELS INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP SOME POPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WILL BE TRACKING A S/W TROF THAT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA FROM THE W ON SUNDAY...DAMPENING OUT AS IT DOES SO. TROF AXIS SLOWLY PUSHES THRU CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING...EXPECT A DECREASE OF COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP MONDAY ACROSS E ZONES. KEPT INHERITED HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN STORMS WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES AND GENERALLY WEAK FLOW...THINK DOWNPOURS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY S TO N TRAINING SUNDAY FOR WATER CONCERNS. WILL HAVE A MENTION OF WATER CONCERNS IN HWO FOR SUNDAY. OVERALL THOUGH...AREA IS ON THE DRY SIDE SO IT WOULD TAKE SLOW MOVERS WITH SOME TRAINING TO REALLY ALLOW A FLOOD THREAT TO MATERIALIZE. DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WORKS IN MONDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS LOWERING. WITH NO TRIGGER...ELECTED TO GO POP FREE MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE RESIDUAL SE FLOW MAY KEEP AN ISOLATED SHRA THREAT GOING. SOME CHANGES FOR TUESDAY AS GFS AND GEM HAVE SLOWED PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE NEW ECMWF HAS ALSO SLOWED THINGS DOWN BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE OTHER TWO MODELS. AS SUCH...HAVE STIFF ARMED HIGH POPS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS W ZONES. BLENDED IN INHERITED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST ALLBLEND TOOL WITH SOME INCORPORATION OF HIRES ARW EARLY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES IN OUR THINKING FROM YESTERDAY. A PSEUDO LULL IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL FIGURED FOR OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS 12Z MODELS PUSH THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. AFTER THE WEAK AND SLUGGISH SUMMER FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...WINDS AT ALL LEVELS BEGINS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. STILL FIGURING ON ABOUT A 30 KNOT STEERING CURRENT FLOW ON TUESDAY. FASTER MOVING STORMS ARE LIKELY. NOT THE BEST SUPPORT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE 60 TO 70 MPH 300 MB JET MAX STILL LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST. 12Z GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL HAVE EL ABOUT 40 THSD FT. CAN NOT RULE OUT SEVERE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WILL LEAVE CHANCE OF LIGHTER LEFTOVERS...SHOWERS/STORMS...ON WEDNESDAY...FIGURING THE SURFACE FRONT STILL MOVING THROUGH. THIS SHOULD SET UP US FOR DRIER AND FRESHER AIR THURSDAY...HOPING IT HOLDS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY TOO. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING. CUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING RESTRICTIONS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H L L H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M L H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...RPY/SL SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
613 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE MOISTURE TODAY. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. FRONT WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SOME FAIRLY LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS TODAY. NAM IS THE SLOWEST BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE GFS IS THE FASTEST. RUC SEEMS TO REPRESENT A MIDDLE GROUND. LOOKING AT THE VAD WINDS...BELIEVE THAT THE NAM MAY HAVE TOO WEAK OF A FLOW AT 700 MB...SO WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE RUC SOLUTION. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR THE BEST DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FLANKS. WILL RUN THE HIGHEST POPS IN THESE AREAS. MODELS INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP SOME POPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WILL BE TRACKING A S/W TROF THAT WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA FROM THE W ON SUNDAY...DAMPENING OUT AS IT DOES SO. TROF AXIS SLOWLY PUSHES THRU CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING...EXPECT A DECREASE OF COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP MONDAY ACROSS E ZONES. KEPT INHERITED HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN STORMS WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES AND GENERALLY WEAK FLOW...THINK DOWNPOURS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY S TO N TRAINING SUNDAY FOR WATER CONCERNS. WILL HAVE A MENTION OF WATER CONCERNS IN HWO FOR SUNDAY. OVERALL THOUGH...AREA IS ON THE DRY SIDE SO IT WOULD TAKE SLOW MOVERS WITH SOME TRAINING TO REALLY ALLOW A FLOOD THREAT TO MATERIALIZE. DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WORKS IN MONDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS LOWERING. WITH NO TRIGGER...ELECTED TO GO POP FREE MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE RESIDUAL SE FLOW MAY KEEP AN ISOLATED SHRA THREAT GOING. SOME CHANGES FOR TUESDAY AS GFS AND GEM HAVE SLOWED PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE NEW ECMWF HAS ALSO SLOWED THINGS DOWN BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE OTHER TWO MODELS. AS SUCH...HAVE STIFF ARMED HIGH POPS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS W ZONES. BLENDED IN INHERITED TEMPERATURES WITH LATEST ALLBLEND TOOL WITH SOME INCORPORATION OF HIRES ARW EARLY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES IN OUR THINKING FROM YESTERDAY. A PSEUDO LULL IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL FIGURED FOR OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS 12Z MODELS PUSH THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. AFTER THE WEAK AND SLUGGISH SUMMER FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...WINDS AT ALL LEVELS BEGINS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. STILL FIGURING ON ABOUT A 30 KNOT STEERING CURRENT FLOW ON TUESDAY. FASTER MOVING STORMS ARE LIKELY. NOT THE BEST SUPPORT TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE 60 TO 70 MPH 300 MB JET MAX STILL LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST. 12Z GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL HAVE EL ABOUT 40 THSD FT. CAN NOT RULE OUT SEVERE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WILL LEAVE CHANCE OF LIGHTER LEFTOVERS...SHOWERS/STORMS...ON WEDNESDAY...FIGURING THE SURFACE FRONT STILL MOVING THROUGH. THIS SHOULD SET UP US FOR DRIER AND FRESHER AIR THURSDAY...HOPING IT HOLDS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY TOO. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING. CUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING RESTRICTIONS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 06/28/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H L L L L L H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/30 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...RPY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1059 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 ...UPDATE... .DISCUSSION... STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES EASTWARD THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AHEAD OF ACTIVITY... MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR-MASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE RUNNING INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. STRONGER FORCING IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PUSHES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. BUT...AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES...COULD STILL SEE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS AS CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS SCENARIO IS IN LINE WITH WITH THE LATEST LOCAL WRF AND HRRR RUNS. UPDATE SENT PREVIOUSLY TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING...HOWEVER WILL LIKELY TWEAK TIMING OF POPS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS TRENDS BECOME MORE CERTAIN. && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
951 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .DISCUSSION... A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES NE...WHICH WILL FAVOR NORTHERN SECTIONS FOR PRECIP COVERAGE. THE RAP AND THE HRRR AGREE WITH THIS PATTERN...AND WILL RAISE POPS NORTH SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN IN THE LIKELY RANGE. POPS WILL BE LOWERED SLIGHTLY SOUTH TO HIGH CHANCES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THE SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE NUDGED DOWN A BIT BASED ON LATEST LAMP GUIDANCE. && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
338 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .DISCUSSION... 338 PM CDT WITH NO AIRMASS CHANGE COMING UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY...THE AREA WILL SEE CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ONGOING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE LATE MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR MID WEEK. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT LIFTED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING BROUGHT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND USHERED IN WARM HUMID AIR THAT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE THE LESS FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING. COVERAGE THEN AGAIN DECREASES AS THIS WAVE EXITS THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN REPEATS ITSELF SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH A SOMEWHAT WEAKER WAVE ALOFT. BY DAYTIME MONDAY A MORE ACTIVE SCENARIO BEGINS TO EVOLVE. IN ADDITION TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPINNING THROUGH THE UPPER CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...COPIOUS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BY LATE MONDAY THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER JET ALSO BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE AREA...AND WINDS AT BOTH 850 AND 700 MB ARE SIMILARLY STRONG. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL SUPPORT RELATIVELY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW...CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THE SHEAR COMPONENT APPEARS TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND UNDER THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. THE COMBINATION OF ALL THESE ELEMENTS WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA...AS DEPICTED IN THE LATEST SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK. IN ADDITION TO A HAIL THREAT FROM DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION...DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE TORNADO THREAT IS LESS CLEAR AT THIS POINT. THE MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND A SLOWER TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM WELL AFTER PEAK HEATING COULD DAMPEN THE ACTIVITY CONSIDERABLY...AS WOULD A STRONGER CAP AT THE BASE OF THE MIXED LAYER ALOFT. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES MONDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY DOES NOT REALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND ALLOW A BROAD SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE IN UNTIL THURSDAY. TUESDAY WILL THEREFORE REMAIN WARM BUT NOT AS HUMID OR UNSETTLED. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DAY OF TRANSITION BUT LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH MORE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE BOTH COOLER AND DRIER AS PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING HIGH. THE HIGH THEN APPEARS TO SETTLE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY...PROVIDING A DRY AND QUIET INDEPENDENCE DAY...AT LEAST WEATHERWISE. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES EAST NEXT WEEKEND...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR AGAIN BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOT IN CLOSE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH...BUT THIS WOULD LEND SUPPORT TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LENNING && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z... * ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. * GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. BMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE WITH A REMNANT MCV LIFTING NE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS KICKING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. OVERALL THE FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE AREA SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE COVERAGE TO GREATLY INCREASE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NEAR TERM TRENDS TO SEE IF SOMETHING MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS DIRECTLY. OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TONIGHT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY KICKING OFF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST. THESE STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE OVERNIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...TSRA WOULD EXPECTED TO BE IN A WEAKENING TREND AS IT NEARS THE CHICAGO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING. BMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z... * MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED. * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. * LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. BMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z... * SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF TSRA LATE. * MONDAY...TSRA LIKELY. * TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. * THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. && .MARINE... 155 PM CDT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME AREAS OF FOG...MAINLY CLOSE TO THE WISCONSIN SHORE...AND GIVEN THE MODEST GRADIENT AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ADVECTING IN BELIEVE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS FAIRLY LOW. MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LIKELY TO PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THE WEAKENING LOW TRACKS EAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WIND SHIFT TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT THOUGH STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN WATER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A BACKED (SOUTHERLY) AND LIGHTER FLOW. IZZI && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
  [top] Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 301 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014 SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday: Our seemingly daily bout of diurnal convection will continue into this evening across central and southeast Illinois. The showers/storms will be most numerous along the west and east ends of the forecast area in the vicinity of a couple weak upper waves. However, unlike recent nights, the threat for precipitation will linger through the night, as a stronger wave, currently pushing into western MO/IA, crosses the area. Given the rather weak shear profiles, and diminishing instability, none of these storms are expected to be severe. Despite the persistent wetness of many of the models, feel the bulk of Sunday/Sunday night will wind up dry locally. The precipitation and/or outflow associated with the MO/IA wave should be largely east of the forecast area by Sunday morning, with little in the way of obvious forcing for additional precipitation. However, storms can certainly not be ruled out due to the fairly strong instability that is likely to build (around 3000 j/kg during peak heating). In addition, by late Sunday night we may be impacted by a MCS or its remnants that develops upstream in the strong WAA pattern ahead of Monday/Monday night`s cold front. The precipitation risk for much of Monday is not clear at this time. There may be some MCS remnants around to start the day, or most of them may have dissipated before reaching the area. In any event, dissipated or not, the local airmass is likely to have been modified by the MCS`s outflow, which could stabilize things for much of the day. Then, shower/storm chances should increase from the northwest late in the day into Monday night as a cold front pushes through the area. Some of the storms with the front could be severe with fairly strong pre-frontal instability and at least moderate shear profiles. Tuesday should be largely dry behind the cold front, although there may be some lingering precipitation in southeast Illinois. The passage of the front should signal the start of a fairly quiet, and somewhat cooler than normal, period across the region. LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday: A least weakly cyclonic northwest upper level flow will be with us for much of the period, although it will be be trending more neutral with time. This upper pattern will also be conducive for high pressure at the surface for the most part. Have had to add a slight chance of precipitation to parts of the area for Wednesday as many models now suggest a stronger wave/trof will pivot around the mean trof in our vicinity. While this wave will likely be moisture starved, it may be able to squeeze out a shower or storm. Otherwise, the bulk of the period is apt to be dry and cooler. Bak && .AVIATION... ISSUED 102 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014 MVFR ceilings will gradually improve to low VFR at most terminals over the next couple of hours. The exception will be KBMI, where slightly lower ceilings will prevail. Subsidence on the back side of a departing upper-level wave will prevent widespread convection this afternoon: however, latest satellite imagery and HRRR guidance suggests widely scattered thunderstorms will develop across the Illinois River Valley. Have therefore included VCTS at both KPIA and KSPI through 00z. Any storms that develop this afternoon will rapidly dissipate by early evening followed by a period of partly to mostly clear conditions. Next aviation challenge will be evolution of storms expected to develop across the Plains this afternoon. Models are offering a wide range of solutions, with both the HRRR and 4km WRF-NMM indicating storms crossing the Mississippi River into west-central Illinois in a weakening state by mid to late evening. Have trended toward this solution, featuring a period of VCTS at both KPIA and KSPI between 04z and 08z. Think storms will dissipate further east, so will keep the remaining TAF sites dry with a low VFR ceiling through the night into Sunday morning. Barnes && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
259 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .DISCUSSION... 1047 AM CDT SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED MCV OVER WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS TWIRLING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS PRETTY EXTENSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...THOUGH NARROW RIBBON OF SOME CLEARING OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME BETTER INSOLATION AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY. ILX AND DVN SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING WERE VERY MOIST AND MODIFYING FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA YIELD MLCAPE VALUES NEARING 2000 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CINH. ALREADY SEEING SOME CONVECTION BEGIN TO POP WITHIN THAT CLEARING AREA AND SUSPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH COVERAGE INCREASING OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF CWA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN PULSY AND RATHER UNORGANIZED STORMS. ANY CLEARING OF THE MID LEVEL DECK UPSTREAM COULD ALSO BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTIVE TEMP TO BE REACHED AND SCTD STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. OVERALL THINK GOING FORECAST OF ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ADEQUATELY COVERS EXPECTATIONS. MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS LOOKING LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND HAVE SHAVED HIGHS TODAY DOWN BY NEARLY A CATEGORY...THOUGH WITH JUICY DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 IT WILL STILL FEEL PRETTY TOASTY. IZZI //PREV DISCUSSION... 355 AM CDT MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES WITH WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN GRADUAL COOLING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE WEATHER FOR THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY...WITH SIGNS OF WARMER WEATHER RETURNING OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RATHER INDISTINCT SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITHIN BROAD SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND DEW POINTS OF 65-70 IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM 06Z RAP DEPICTING LITTLE/NO CAP AND MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BY MID/LATE MORNING. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FOCUS SUGGESTS ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS NOTED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING HOWEVER...WITH SOME PERSISTENT WEAK RADAR RETURNS VICINITY KBMI EVIDENCE OF VORT. PRESENCE OF THIS WEAK WAVE AND EARLY DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING WITH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA PERHAPS MORE FAVORED GIVEN TRACK OF VORT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/EML SEEN IN UPSTREAM TOP/SGF 00Z SOUNDINGS WILL APPROACH LATER IN THE DAY PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS... WHICH MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE CAPPING BY AFTERNOON WHICH ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA MAY LIMIT COVERAGE AT THAT TIME...THOUGH DIURNAL PEAK HEATING WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A FEW SCATTERED STORMS TO CONTINUE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.7 INCHES. A GREATER CHANCE OF MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE PROPAGATES FROM THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MODEST ORGANIZED HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS MODESTLY INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON 30-35 KT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP OFFSET POOR DIURNAL TIMING...THOUGH HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH LOWER RANGE OF GUIDANCE POPS WITH HIGH CHANCE/50 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE LATE NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING PERIOD. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A PONTIAC TO GARY LINE...AND LOWERED POPS TO A SLIGHT 20 PERCENT NORTHWEST OF IT. LARGE SCALE FORCING DECREASES BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE MLCAPE WITH LITTLE/NO CAP ACROSS THE REGION. GFS AND LOCAL WRF RUN DEPICT A STRONGER CAP WHICH APPEARS A BIT MORE LIKELY GIVEN HEIGHT RISES...SUPPORTING LOW/NIL POPS ACROSS NORTHERN IL FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS ACROSS PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RESULTING INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS AREAS TO OUR WEST. OUR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION AND SURFACE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY. GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED DEEP SHEAR WITH STRONGER JET ALOFT...AND INSTABILITY FED BY POOLING OF HIGHER DEW POINT AIR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...AS DEPICTED IN SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE WAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOL WITH TEMPS FRIDAY...AND IT APPEARS THIS BIAS CONTINUES TODAY...SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS NUMBERS BASED ON LOCAL 850 HPA TEMP CLIMO...THOUGH INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY COMPLICATE THINGS A BIT. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE VERY WARM...LOW 90S IN SPOTS...DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. ONCE COLD FRONT CLEARS AREA MONDAY NIGHT...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND SETS UP FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES NOTED TUES-WED WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS THOSE DAYS...BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY THE 4TH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLEASANT HOLIDAY WEATHER WITH TEMPS NEAR 80 AND 70S NEAR THE LAKE. LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. RATZER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z... * ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. * GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. BMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE WITH A REMNANT MCV LIFTING NE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS KICKING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. OVERALL THE FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE AREA SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE COVERAGE TO GREATLY INCREASE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NEAR TERM TRENDS TO SEE IF SOMETHING MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS DIRECTLY. OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TONIGHT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY KICKING OFF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST. THESE STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE OVERNIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...TSRA WOULD EXPECTED TO BE IN A WEAKENING TREND AS IT NEARS THE CHICAGO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING. BMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z... * MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED. * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. * LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. BMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z... * SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF TSRA LATE. * MONDAY...TSRA LIKELY. * TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. * THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. && .MARINE... 155 PM CDT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME AREAS OF FOG...MAINLY CLOSE TO THE WISCONSIN SHORE...AND GIVEN THE MODEST GRADIENT AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ADVECTING IN BELIEVE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS FAIRLY LOW. MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LIKELY TO PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THE WEAKENING LOW TRACKS EAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WIND SHIFT TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT THOUGH STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN WATER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A BACKED (SOUTHERLY) AND LIGHTER FLOW. IZZI && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
155 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .DISCUSSION... 1047 AM CDT SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED MCV OVER WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS TWIRLING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS PRETTY EXTENSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...THOUGH NARROW RIBBON OF SOME CLEARING OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME BETTER INSOLATION AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY. ILX AND DVN SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING WERE VERY MOIST AND MODIFYING FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA YIELD MLCAPE VALUES NEARING 2000 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CINH. ALREADY SEEING SOME CONVECTION BEGIN TO POP WITHIN THAT CLEARING AREA AND SUSPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH COVERAGE INCREASING OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF CWA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN PULSY AND RATHER UNORGANIZED STORMS. ANY CLEARING OF THE MID LEVEL DECK UPSTREAM COULD ALSO BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTIVE TEMP TO BE REACHED AND SCTD STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. OVERALL THINK GOING FORECAST OF ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ADEQUATELY COVERS EXPECTATIONS. MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS LOOKING LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND HAVE SHAVED HIGHS TODAY DOWN BY NEARLY A CATEGORY...THOUGH WITH JUICY DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 IT WILL STILL FEEL PRETTY TOASTY. IZZI //PREV DISCUSSION... 355 AM CDT MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES WITH WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN GRADUAL COOLING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE WEATHER FOR THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY...WITH SIGNS OF WARMER WEATHER RETURNING OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RATHER INDISTINCT SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITHIN BROAD SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND DEW POINTS OF 65-70 IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM 06Z RAP DEPICTING LITTLE/NO CAP AND MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BY MID/LATE MORNING. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FOCUS SUGGESTS ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS NOTED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING HOWEVER...WITH SOME PERSISTENT WEAK RADAR RETURNS VICINITY KBMI EVIDENCE OF VORT. PRESENCE OF THIS WEAK WAVE AND EARLY DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING WITH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA PERHAPS MORE FAVORED GIVEN TRACK OF VORT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/EML SEEN IN UPSTREAM TOP/SGF 00Z SOUNDINGS WILL APPROACH LATER IN THE DAY PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS... WHICH MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE CAPPING BY AFTERNOON WHICH ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA MAY LIMIT COVERAGE AT THAT TIME...THOUGH DIURNAL PEAK HEATING WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A FEW SCATTERED STORMS TO CONTINUE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.7 INCHES. A GREATER CHANCE OF MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE PROPAGATES FROM THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MODEST ORGANIZED HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS MODESTLY INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON 30-35 KT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP OFFSET POOR DIURNAL TIMING...THOUGH HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH LOWER RANGE OF GUIDANCE POPS WITH HIGH CHANCE/50 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE LATE NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING PERIOD. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A PONTIAC TO GARY LINE...AND LOWERED POPS TO A SLIGHT 20 PERCENT NORTHWEST OF IT. LARGE SCALE FORCING DECREASES BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE MLCAPE WITH LITTLE/NO CAP ACROSS THE REGION. GFS AND LOCAL WRF RUN DEPICT A STRONGER CAP WHICH APPEARS A BIT MORE LIKELY GIVEN HEIGHT RISES...SUPPORTING LOW/NIL POPS ACROSS NORTHERN IL FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS ACROSS PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RESULTING INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS AREAS TO OUR WEST. OUR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION AND SURFACE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY. GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED DEEP SHEAR WITH STRONGER JET ALOFT...AND INSTABILITY FED BY POOLING OF HIGHER DEW POINT AIR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...AS DEPICTED IN SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE WAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOL WITH TEMPS FRIDAY...AND IT APPEARS THIS BIAS CONTINUES TODAY...SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS NUMBERS BASED ON LOCAL 850 HPA TEMP CLIMO...THOUGH INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY COMPLICATE THINGS A BIT. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE VERY WARM...LOW 90S IN SPOTS...DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. ONCE COLD FRONT CLEARS AREA MONDAY NIGHT...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND SETS UP FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES NOTED TUES-WED WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS THOSE DAYS...BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY THE 4TH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLEASANT HOLIDAY WEATHER WITH TEMPS NEAR 80 AND 70S NEAR THE LAKE. LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. RATZER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z... * WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. * GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. BMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE WITH A REMNANT MCV LIFTING NE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS KICKING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. OVERALL THE FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE AREA SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE COVERAGE TO GREATLY INCREASE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NEAR TERM TRENDS TO SEE IF SOMETHING MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS DIRECTLY. OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TONIGHT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY KICKING OFF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST. THESE STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE OVERNIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...TSRA WOULD EXPECTED TO BE IN A WEAKENING TREND AS IT NEARS THE CHICAGO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING. BMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z... * MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED. * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. * LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. BMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z... * SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF TSRA LATE. * MONDAY...TSRA LIKELY. * TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. * THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. && .MARINE... 155 PM CDT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME AREAS OF FOG...MAINLY CLOSE TO THE WISCONSIN SHORE...AND GIVEN THE MODEST GRADIENT AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ADVECTING IN BELIEVE THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS FAIRLY LOW. MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LIKELY TO PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE THE WEAKENING LOW TRACKS EAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WIND SHIFT TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT THOUGH STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE OPEN WATER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A BACKED (SOUTHERLY) AND LIGHTER FLOW. IZZI && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1235 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .DISCUSSION... 1047 AM CDT SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED MCV OVER WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS TWIRLING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS PRETTY EXTENSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...THOUGH NARROW RIBBON OF SOME CLEARING OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME BETTER INSOLATION AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY. ILX AND DVN SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING WERE VERY MOIST AND MODIFYING FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA YIELD MLCAPE VALUES NEARING 2000 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CINH. ALREADY SEEING SOME CONVECTION BEGIN TO POP WITHIN THAT CLEARING AREA AND SUSPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH COVERAGE INCREASING OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF CWA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN PULSY AND RATHER UNORGANIZED STORMS. ANY CLEARING OF THE MID LEVEL DECK UPSTREAM COULD ALSO BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTIVE TEMP TO BE REACHED AND SCTD STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. OVERALL THINK GOING FORECAST OF ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ADEQUATELY COVERS EXPECTATIONS. MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS LOOKING LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND HAVE SHAVED HIGHS TODAY DOWN BY NEARLY A CATEGORY...THOUGH WITH JUICY DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 IT WILL STILL FEEL PRETTY TOASTY. IZZI //PREV DISCUSSION... 355 AM CDT MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES WITH WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN GRADUAL COOLING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE WEATHER FOR THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY...WITH SIGNS OF WARMER WEATHER RETURNING OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RATHER INDISTINCT SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITHIN BROAD SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND DEW POINTS OF 65-70 IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM 06Z RAP DEPICTING LITTLE/NO CAP AND MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BY MID/LATE MORNING. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FOCUS SUGGESTS ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS NOTED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING HOWEVER...WITH SOME PERSISTENT WEAK RADAR RETURNS VICINITY KBMI EVIDENCE OF VORT. PRESENCE OF THIS WEAK WAVE AND EARLY DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING WITH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA PERHAPS MORE FAVORED GIVEN TRACK OF VORT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/EML SEEN IN UPSTREAM TOP/SGF 00Z SOUNDINGS WILL APPROACH LATER IN THE DAY PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS... WHICH MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE CAPPING BY AFTERNOON WHICH ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA MAY LIMIT COVERAGE AT THAT TIME...THOUGH DIURNAL PEAK HEATING WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A FEW SCATTERED STORMS TO CONTINUE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.7 INCHES. A GREATER CHANCE OF MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE PROPAGATES FROM THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MODEST ORGANIZED HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS MODESTLY INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON 30-35 KT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP OFFSET POOR DIURNAL TIMING...THOUGH HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH LOWER RANGE OF GUIDANCE POPS WITH HIGH CHANCE/50 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE LATE NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING PERIOD. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A PONTIAC TO GARY LINE...AND LOWERED POPS TO A SLIGHT 20 PERCENT NORTHWEST OF IT. LARGE SCALE FORCING DECREASES BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE MLCAPE WITH LITTLE/NO CAP ACROSS THE REGION. GFS AND LOCAL WRF RUN DEPICT A STRONGER CAP WHICH APPEARS A BIT MORE LIKELY GIVEN HEIGHT RISES...SUPPORTING LOW/NIL POPS ACROSS NORTHERN IL FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS ACROSS PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RESULTING INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS AREAS TO OUR WEST. OUR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION AND SURFACE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY. GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED DEEP SHEAR WITH STRONGER JET ALOFT...AND INSTABILITY FED BY POOLING OF HIGHER DEW POINT AIR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...AS DEPICTED IN SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE WAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOL WITH TEMPS FRIDAY...AND IT APPEARS THIS BIAS CONTINUES TODAY...SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS NUMBERS BASED ON LOCAL 850 HPA TEMP CLIMO...THOUGH INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY COMPLICATE THINGS A BIT. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE VERY WARM...LOW 90S IN SPOTS...DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. ONCE COLD FRONT CLEARS AREA MONDAY NIGHT...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND SETS UP FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES NOTED TUES-WED WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS THOSE DAYS...BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY THE 4TH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLEASANT HOLIDAY WEATHER WITH TEMPS NEAR 80 AND 70S NEAR THE LAKE. LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. RATZER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z... * WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. * GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. BMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE WITH A REMNANT MCV LIFTING NE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS KICKING OFF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. OVERALL THE FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE AREA SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE COVERAGE TO GREATLY INCREASE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NEAR TERM TRENDS TO SEE IF SOMETHING MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS DIRECTLY. OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TONIGHT A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY KICKING OFF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST. THESE STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE OVERNIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...TSRA WOULD EXPECTED TO BE IN A WEAKENING TREND AS IT NEARS THE CHICAGO TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING. BMD //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z... * MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED. * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. * LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. BMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z... * SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF TSRA LATE. * MONDAY...TSRA LIKELY. * TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. * THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. && .MARINE... 240 AM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA TO KANSAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH FORMING A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN AS THIS OCCURS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING JAMES BAY TUESDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...ON MONDAY. WINDS THEN SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE BUT WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT HAZE/PATCHY DENSE FOG WORDING. CMS && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1101 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .DISCUSSION... 1047 AM CDT SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED MCV OVER WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS TWIRLING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS PRETTY EXTENSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...THOUGH NARROW RIBBON OF SOME CLEARING OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME BETTER INSOLATION AND SUBSEQUENT INSTABILITY. ILX AND DVN SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING WERE VERY MOIST AND MODIFYING FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA YIELD MLCAPE VALUES NEARING 2000 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CINH. ALREADY SEEING SOME CONVECTION BEGIN TO POP WITHIN THAT CLEARING AREA AND SUSPECT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH COVERAGE INCREASING OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF CWA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. VERY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN PULSY AND RATHER UNORGANIZED STORMS. ANY CLEARING OF THE MID LEVEL DECK UPSTREAM COULD ALSO BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTIVE TEMP TO BE REACHED AND SCTD STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. OVERALL THINK GOING FORECAST OF ISOLD-SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ADEQUATELY COVERS EXPECTATIONS. MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS LOOKING LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND HAVE SHAVED HIGHS TODAY DOWN BY NEARLY A CATEGORY...THOUGH WITH JUICY DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 IT WILL STILL FEEL PRETTY TOASTY. IZZI //PREV DISCUSSION... 355 AM CDT MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES WITH WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN GRADUAL COOLING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK SHOULD MAKE FOR NICE WEATHER FOR THE JULY 4TH HOLIDAY...WITH SIGNS OF WARMER WEATHER RETURNING OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. RATHER INDISTINCT SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTHEAST ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITHIN BROAD SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. WARM/MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND DEW POINTS OF 65-70 IS EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM 06Z RAP DEPICTING LITTLE/NO CAP AND MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BY MID/LATE MORNING. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FOCUS SUGGESTS ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS NOTED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING HOWEVER...WITH SOME PERSISTENT WEAK RADAR RETURNS VICINITY KBMI EVIDENCE OF VORT. PRESENCE OF THIS WEAK WAVE AND EARLY DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING WITH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA PERHAPS MORE FAVORED GIVEN TRACK OF VORT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/EML SEEN IN UPSTREAM TOP/SGF 00Z SOUNDINGS WILL APPROACH LATER IN THE DAY PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS... WHICH MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE CAPPING BY AFTERNOON WHICH ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WAVE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA MAY LIMIT COVERAGE AT THAT TIME...THOUGH DIURNAL PEAK HEATING WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A FEW SCATTERED STORMS TO CONTINUE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.7 INCHES. A GREATER CHANCE OF MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AS A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE PROPAGATES FROM THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MODEST ORGANIZED HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS MODESTLY INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON 30-35 KT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP OFFSET POOR DIURNAL TIMING...THOUGH HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH LOWER RANGE OF GUIDANCE POPS WITH HIGH CHANCE/50 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE LATE NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING PERIOD. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A PONTIAC TO GARY LINE...AND LOWERED POPS TO A SLIGHT 20 PERCENT NORTHWEST OF IT. LARGE SCALE FORCING DECREASES BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE MLCAPE WITH LITTLE/NO CAP ACROSS THE REGION. GFS AND LOCAL WRF RUN DEPICT A STRONGER CAP WHICH APPEARS A BIT MORE LIKELY GIVEN HEIGHT RISES...SUPPORTING LOW/NIL POPS ACROSS NORTHERN IL FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS ACROSS PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RESULTING INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS AREAS TO OUR WEST. OUR CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION AND SURFACE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY. GUIDANCE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED DEEP SHEAR WITH STRONGER JET ALOFT...AND INSTABILITY FED BY POOLING OF HIGHER DEW POINT AIR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY...AS DEPICTED IN SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK. GUIDANCE WAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOL WITH TEMPS FRIDAY...AND IT APPEARS THIS BIAS CONTINUES TODAY...SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY. HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS NUMBERS BASED ON LOCAL 850 HPA TEMP CLIMO...THOUGH INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY COMPLICATE THINGS A BIT. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE VERY WARM...LOW 90S IN SPOTS...DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF CLOUDS. ONCE COLD FRONT CLEARS AREA MONDAY NIGHT...A GRADUAL COOLING TREND SETS UP FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES NOTED TUES-WED WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS THOSE DAYS...BUT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY THE 4TH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR PLEASANT HOLIDAY WEATHER WITH TEMPS NEAR 80 AND 70S NEAR THE LAKE. LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. RATZER && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z... * ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MID MORNING THRU LATE AFTERNOON. * GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS MID MORNING THRU SUNSET. * CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY MORNING. CMS/BMD //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z... A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO AID TSRA DEVELOPMENT BUT TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THOUGH HI RES/SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST SHRA DEVELOPMENT BY MID MORNING. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...AS TEMPS WARM DURING THE MORNING...SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. BUT BEST TIMING FOR TSRA APPEARS TO BE IN THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE ARRIVES. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. ADDITIONAL TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST TODAY AND THEN MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY/MID SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW REGARDING HOW MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE TERMINALS. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 12-16KT RANGE THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE 20KT RANGE AND WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE MORNING. CMS //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z... * LOW-MEDIUM FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THRU LATE AFTERNOON...LOW FOR COVERAGE AND TIMING. * MEDIUM FOR WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. * LOW FOR SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY MORNING. CMS/BMD //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z... * SUNDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF TSRA LATE. * MONDAY...TSRA LIKELY. * TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. * THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DRY/VFR. && .MARINE... 240 AM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA TO KANSAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH FORMING A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN AS THIS OCCURS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15-25KT RANGE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST REACHING JAMES BAY TUESDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...ON MONDAY. WINDS THEN SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE BUT WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT HAZE/PATCHY DENSE FOG WORDING. CMS && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1251 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014 ...Updated aviation section... .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 The 00z upper air analysis showed a 90 knot 250 millibar jet extending from Oregon into northeast New Mexico. Broad upper level troughing was in place from the Pacific Northwest into the central and southern High Plains. A shortwave trough was moving across eastern Colorado and New Mexico. Widespread thunderstorm activity was slowly propagating southeast over central and southwest Kansas early this morning. This activity was pushing an outflow boundary south across southwest Kansas. Moist southerly low level flow was riding up over the boundary and helping sustain the thunderstorm complex. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 Latest radar trends show the thunderstorm complex starting to weaken somewhat. RAP 850 wind analysis has indicated a low level jet from the Texas panhandle extending up into far southwest Kansas which has been helping sustain the overnight convection. Latest progs show the low level jet veering through the remainder of the early morning hours which should help usher the complex eastward into central Kansas. Will keep some high chance pops going over central Kansas through the morning hours but the precipitation should come to an end as the mid level shortwave moves east of the region. The models continue to keep the low level boundary lingering in south central Kansas later this afternoon. There could be some additional thunderstorm development later this afternoon/early evening along the boundary if it does get hung up in that area but with the upper level dynamics shifting off to the east, any thunderstorm activity should diminish fairly early this evening with the remainder of the night staying dry. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 Upper level westerly flow lifts into the northern part of the country on Sunday. The westerly flow will result in a surface low pressure trough in the lee of the Rockies. A weak fast moving shortwave trough will push east through the northern plains. This could bring a few showers and thunderstorms to the area around I-70 during the afternoon and evening. A cold front will push south across western Kansas Monday afternoon and night as a strong shortwave moves through the northern Plains. Low level moisture will continue to stream northward into the central Plains and impinge on the front, bringing another round of thunderstorms to much of southwest Kansas. With saturated soil conditions from tonight`s and previous days rains, flood and/or flash flood headlines may be necessary. The models show the front moving far enough south to bring a break in rainfall across Southwest Kansas by Tuesday night into Wednesday. Later in the week, upper level ridging will build from the western states into the central part of the country. We should see a trend toward somewhat warmer temperatures along with continued small chances for thunderstorms through Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies. Winds will be from the south southwest this afternoon shifting to the southeast this evening into the overnight period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 88 66 94 72 / 20 20 10 10 GCK 88 65 95 70 / 10 10 10 10 EHA 92 62 100 70 / 0 0 10 10 LBL 91 66 98 73 / 10 10 10 10 HYS 86 66 94 71 / 50 10 20 20 P28 87 69 93 75 / 100 30 10 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gerard SHORT TERM...Gerard LONG TERM...Gerard AVIATION...Hovorka_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
102 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MOVEMENT HAS BEEN VERY SLOW AND SOME AREAS IN THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST MAY NOT GET IN ON THE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL 21Z OR LATER. OF COURSE...GIVEN THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY THIS AFTERNOON...A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS AND WEATHER TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. DID ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT GIVEN CLOUD COVER HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE DAY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 UPDATED FORECAST TO REFINE POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS SHOWERS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 UPDATED THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE POPS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING. ALSO BACKED OFF ON THE DENSE VALLEY FOG AS THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES AT BAY. FINALLY...DID TWEAK THE T/TD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WITH A NEW ZFP TO FOLLOW SHORTLY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS AND A WASHED OUT STATIONARY BOUNDARY STREWN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WHILE THE LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOW THE REMAINS OF EARLIER SHOWERS DYING OUT JUST SOUTH OF JKL...ON SATELLITE...A MASS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST...OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND INTO KENTUCKY. THESE CLOUDS ARE HELPING TO KEEP THE FOG TO A MINIMUM SO FAR THIS NIGHT DESPITE THE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL DURING THE PAST DAY. SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S...MAKING FOR A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE NATION AND DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE NATION. THE CORE OF THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT BRUSHING PAST THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWERING HEIGHTS A TAD INTO SUNDAY. A FEW WAVES OF ENERGY WILL PASS OVER KENTUCKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE WEAK SOUTHEAST RIDGE. ONE OF THESE IS PASSING THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ANOTHER DECENT ONE WILL PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST OVER KENTUCKY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY SUNDAY. WITH THE MODEL AGREEMENT...FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR THE NEAR TERM. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WARM...HUMID...AND STORMY COUPLE OF DAYS AS THAT WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE WITH AMPLE MOISTURE OVER EAST KENTUCKY...PWS OVER 1.8 INCHES. THE CONVECTION WILL BE AMPLIFIED BY THE DIURNAL CYCLE...PEAKING LATE EACH AFTERNOON AND LINGERING WELL INTO THE EVENING. THE GRIDS WHERE CREATED WITH THIS IN MIND...MAKING FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY THAN WE SAW ON FRIDAY AND POPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60 PERCENT RANGE. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT GOING AT ALL TIMES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY... BUT PROBABLY NOT TOO EXTENSIVE OR THICK GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. SIMILARLY...THE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY SMALL. AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN THE BCCONSALL THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RIDGE AND VALLEY SPOTS TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP PRETTY CLOSE TO THE RATHER WET GFS MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE APPALACHIANS...ALONG WITH A STREAM OF WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE GULF AIR INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY MONDAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...PULLING THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WITH IT. BY OVERNIGHT...LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...AND A BRIEF LULL IN THE SYNOPTIC ACTIVITY...SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO REMOVE CONVECTIVE CHANCES ALL TOGETHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS LULL IN THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...THIS WILL SERVE TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS AND EVENTUALLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. UNFORTUNATELY...RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL PREVENT ANY QUICK FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH KY. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONVECTIVE CHANCES ONCE MORE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THIS POINT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE EXTENDED DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE RIDGING FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND ALLOWING THE SURFACE FEATURES TO FINALLY PROGRESS ALONG THE SAME PATTERN. AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH KY THURSDAY...WINDS WILL HAVE TURNED TO A NRLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL PULL IN A MUCH ANTICIPATED DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. PRECIP CHANCES WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS THIS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH THE MORE NORTHERN FLOW...REACHING THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL TAKE A STRONG HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL TAKE PLACE HOWEVER...WITH GOOD SOLAR RADIATION...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ON THE RISE ONCE MORE. HIGHS WILL REACH BACK UP INTO UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ON THE SAME NOTE...LOSS OF RADIATION OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE THE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEPARTED KSME AND KLOZ...ADDITIONAL ACITIVITY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THESE AIRPORTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM DIRECTLY IMPACTING THESE AIRPORTS LATER ON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...OPTED TO GO WITH VCTS AND AMEND AS NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR KJKL AND KSJS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE PUSHING INTO THESE AREAS AROUND 21Z OR A BIT FASTER. WE SHOULD SEE EVERYTHING DIE OFF THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND CONDITIONS STABILIZE ACROSS THE AREA. AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD STILL IMPACT KSJS INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH IT IN THE TAF. GIVEN THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND RAIN TODAY...FOG WILL BE A CONCERN LATER TONIGHT AND WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF FOG IN ALL OF THE TAFS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KAS SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
337 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH RAP 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS SHOWED A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH THE NE/IA BORDER. A FEW EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST AND PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL ASCENT NEEDED FOR SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MN...AS EVIDENT BY THE SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH LOW 60 DEWPOINTS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE FRONT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LED TO A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING NORTHWEST MN DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF CONVECTION SHOW GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOPAUSE...SO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP LAYER DIRECTION SHEAR. HOWEVER...CHANGES IN SPEED WITHIN THE LOWER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE RESULTED IN 15 TO 25KTS OF 1KM SHEAR. MLCAPE WAS 1500 TO 2000J/KG...WHILE THE 0-3KM CAPE AROUND 50J/KG. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM CDT. THE HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CONVECTION WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING AS IT CROSSES INTO WESTERN WI AND OUTRUNS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...BUT IN THE MEAN TIME A FEW STRONG WINDS COULD MIX DOWN WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIP CORES...SO FEEL THAT DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT. LOW LCLS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO...BUT AT THIS TIME HODOGRAPHS WOULD NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT. THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPS IN IS WAKE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE WEST OF THE CWA. THIS DRY SLOT IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES NEAR 3000J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 50KTS...BUT THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WHICH IS BETTER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS IOWA. THEREFORE WE STILL HAVE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THE STORMS ARE ABLE TO FIRE IN SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN. IF THEY DO...EXPECT THEM TO QUICKLY TURN SEVERE...WITH HIGH END SEVERE POSSIBLE...MEANING HAIL OVER 2 INCHES...AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75MPH. AS OF NOW...THE BEST CHANCE IS IN SOUTHEASTERN MN...GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM FAIRMONT MN THROUGH MANKATO MN TO RED WING MN. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 LONG TERM ANALYSIS/FORECASTING CUT SHORT TODAY WITH BOTH FORECASTERS FOCUSED ON SHORT TERM DUTIES. OVERALL...THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MASSIVE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE FA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONG WESTERLIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT TO MUCH OF THE CONVECTION BY THE TIME SUNDAY NIGHT ARRIVES WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA. SOME BRIEF DRYING WILL OCCUR DURING THE NIGHT...BUT A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WESTERN WI BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN ONTARIO DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THE SOUTHERN ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE EAST WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH SIMILAR HIGHS AND YET ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AS THE FINAL SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH. THURSDAY IS OUR ONLY SOLID DRY DAY BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN FROM THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY (4TH OF JULY) AND SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 TWO ISSUES AT TAF ISSUANCE. FIRST IS THE MVFR CEILINGS THAT STRETCH FROM KAXN TO KRWF ON EASTWARD. THE CEILINGS ARE SLOWLY LIFTING AS MIXING INCREASES DUE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. GRADUALLY BROUGHT ALL SITES UP TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SECOND ISSUE IS THE FINE LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG A PREFONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR KAXN TO KRWF. LATEST HRRR AND 12Z HOPWRF MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CONVECTION INCREASING IN A NORTH-SOUTH LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS IT HEADS SLOWLY EAST. TIMED THE CONVECTION PER THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTIONS. THE MOST ROBUST ACTIVITY AFFECTS THE TWIN CITIES IN THE 22Z-24Z TIME FRAME. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND DIMINISHING WIND WILL ALLOW MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS TO DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WHERE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...MOISTENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER EVEN MORE BEFORE SUNSET. PRELIMINARY LOOK AT SUNDAY SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE JUST SOUTH OF KRWF-KMSP-KEAU. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SSE 15-20 KNOTS GUSTING 25-30 KNOTS. WINDS SUNDAY SSW 15-20 KNOTS GUSTING 25-30 KNOTS. KMSP...CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL WAVES OF CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD IN THE 22Z-24Z TIME PERIOD WITH GUSTY SW WINDS TO 40 KNOTS AND SMALL HAIL. MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH VFR THEREAFTER. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN NITE...VFR. WINDS SW 10KTS. MON...VFR. WINDS W 10-15KTS. TUE...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS NW 20KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JRB LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
106 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW CIRCULATION OVER THE BISMARK AREA...WITH CONVECTION BEGINNING TO INITIATE ALONG A LINE FROM GENERALLY FARGO...THROUGH THE BRAINERD AREA...AND WESTERN TWIN CITIES METRO. LATEST RUC MESO- ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE DEVELOPING STORMS ARE ALONG AN AXIS OF INCREASING ML CAPE/ERODING CIN...ALONG WITH STRONG SHEAR. EXPECT THIS LINE OF STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND SUGGESTS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE OF STORMS REACHES THE AREAS OF KINL...TO KHIB...AND EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 00Z...BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE DLH CWA BY 03Z. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THESE STORMS REMAINS HEAVY DOWNPOURS/LOCALIZED FLOODING...POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS/WIND DAMAGE...AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO. THERE IS A MINIMAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL DUE TO FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 14 KFT && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF WARM MOIST ADVECTION...WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS EXTENDING FROM TEXAS NORTH UP ACROSS THE PLAINS TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS GRADUALLY DECAYING OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...EXTENDING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. EARLY THIS MORNING THE CURRENT AREA OF STORMS SHOULD EXIT OFF TO THE NORTH...LEAVING OUR NORTHERN MINNESOTA COUNTIES WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FOR MOST OF OUR MORNING HOURS. THE CONVECTION NOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO DECAY TO MAINLY MID CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS BEFORE IT GETS HERE. WILL BE WATCHING THESE TRENDS CLOSELY. THEN...THIS AFTERNOON NEW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME...AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. CAPE VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 1000J/KG...WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS DEEP WARM AIRMASS IT APPEARS THAT WIND WILL BE OUR MAIN THREAT. WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS UP OVER 12KFT...HAIL SHOULD BE HARDER TO GET. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE UP OVER 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS APPROACHING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS DOES HIGHLIGHT MORE OF A FLASH FLOOD RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE CONVECTION ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...RECENT RAINFALL IS RELATIVELY LOW...WITH 7 DAY PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH WITH MOST OF THAT 7 DAYS AGO. THUS...OUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS MAINLY IN THE 2-3 INCH IN 6 HOURS RANGE...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THUS...WHILE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS THERE...AM THINKING IT WILL TAKE TRAINING OF STORMS AND/OR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS FOR THE SAME LOCATION BEFORE FLASH FLOODING DEVELOPS. THUS...HAVE HELD OFF FOR NOW ON ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH...AND WE CAN MONITOR HOW THE CONVECTION MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING THE CALL ON THAT. AM STILL CARRYING LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TONIGHT. TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 60S MOST AREAS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE SOUTH AROUND THE LOW AND BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT BY TUESDAY THEY SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED. BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROF WILL HAVE MOVED EAST AND HAVE BEEN REPLACE BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BRING SOME DRY WEATHER FEW A COUPLE DAYS. BY FRIDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARD THE AREA. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS PRETTY HEAVY OF THE PCPN COMPARED TO THE GFS ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS CAN BE EXPECTED IN CONVECTIVE QPF. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 A STRONG PUSH OF WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND A LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE SW AND MOVING E/NEWD THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEARS TO BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING FROM WSW TO THE EAST. AFTER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEPART TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT...COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AT DLH AND HIB. CONDITIONS BECOME VFR SUNDAY MORNING AND WINDS INCREASE AGAIN OUT OF THE SW BEFORE 18Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 62 78 59 77 / 70 20 30 30 INL 67 78 59 72 / 80 30 40 60 BRD 68 80 61 78 / 70 20 20 20 HYR 69 82 63 80 / 70 30 40 30 ASX 65 81 62 78 / 70 40 40 20 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ140>145. && $$ UPDATE...GRANING SHORT TERM...LE LONG TERM...CLC AVIATION...BJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1200 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF RAIN/THUNDER AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LAYERED DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION LIFTING NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MN AS SHORT WAVE EXITS THE AREA. SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS REMAIN IN WAA PATTERN OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...BUT THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY END AS WELL. ALSO..THE MCS THAT MOVED ACROSS NEBRASKA/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IS WEAKENING IN LINE WITH VARIOUS HIRES SOLUTIONS FOR THIS MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN TREND LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WEST BY 18Z. WE ALSO MAINTAIN STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE BREEZY SE-S WINDS GUSTING OVER 25KTS IN THE WEST. WE STILL MAINTAIN CONTINUOUS MOISTURE FEED NORTH WITH PW`S INCREASING CLOSE TO 2 INCHES AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST. HAVE CLOSE TO AN INCH OF QPF IN THE GRIDS FOR THE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE HYDRO SITUATION NONETHELESS...AS PRECIP RATES WILL BE HIGH IN ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DEPEND ON CLOUDS COVER/DESTABILIZATION RATE INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SO IT MAY LIMIT HIGHER CAPE POTENTIAL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-45KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO AROUND 7C/KM. WIND AND HAIL WILL BE A THREAT...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. THE TROUGH SWINGS EAST OVERNIGHT AND WILL TRAIL OFF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL CLEAR THE CWA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST. MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BE PUSHING IN SO AM ANTICIPATING QUITE A BIT OF SUN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTING EAST FROM THE ROCKIES WILL ACCELERATE AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A DEEPENING CYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS ZONAL FLOW SPEED MAX WILL INTERACT WITH A MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN IA AND SHOULD PRODUCE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BY EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MN...POSSIBLY INTO EAST CENTRAL MN. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY OF PRECISELY WHERE THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE TREND FOR MODELS TO PUSH THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH WITH SEEMINGLY EACH RUN. DID REDUCE POPS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...EXCEPT OVER SOUTHERN MN FOR THIS TREND. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT TO SAY STORMS ARE NOT POSSIBLE FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI...THEY WILL JUST BE MORE ISOLATED. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED...INCLUDING TORNADOES. IN FACT...THE TOGGIE TOR PROBS OF EQ 1 AND EQ 2 SHOW HIGH PROBABILITIES /50 TO 80 PERCENT/ ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI. SIG TOR PARAMETERS ARE ALSO WELL INTO THE FAVORABLE RANGE. THUS THE SITUATION BEARS WATCHING...ESPECIALLY IN THE DISCRETE SUPERCELL PHASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS AND PUSH INTO WI DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH A MAIN CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THIS CONVECTION MAY BECOME ANCHORED ON A WARM FRONT AND TRAIN OVER NORTHERN IA AND/OR FAR SOUTHERN MN WITH A THREAT FOR CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. ANOTHER COMPLEX MAY FORM OVER NORTHWEST IA/NORTHEAST NE OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. THERE IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY WHERE THIS BATCH WILL TRACK AND WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON THE FIRST MCS. 00Z RUNS DO PUSH IT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI BY MONDAY MORNING SO FELT COMPELLED TO INCREASE POPS DURING THIS TIME. DRY SLOT WILL FINALLY PUSH IN MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW SAGS SOUTH MONDAY EVENING AND PERSISTS THROUGH TUESDAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK LIKE A DECENT BET ALONG WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE 60S TUESDAY. POOL OF COOL AIR ALOFT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT MIDWEEK AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COOL DAY. THE RETURN OF WARMER AIR BEGINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES EXPANDS EASTWARD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 TWO ISSUES AT TAF ISSUANCE. FIRST IS THE MVFR CEILINGS THAT STRETCH FROM KAXN TO KRWF ON EASTWARD. THE CEILINGS ARE SLOWLY LIFTING AS MIXING INCREASES DUE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. GRADUALLY BROUGHT ALL SITES UP TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SECOND ISSUE IS THE FINE LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG A PREFONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR KAXN TO KRWF. LATEST HRRR AND 12Z HOPWRF MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CONVECTION INCREASING IN A NORTH-SOUTH LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS IT HEADS SLOWLY EAST. TIMED THE CONVECTION PER THE AFOREMENTIONED SOLUTIONS. THE MOST ROBUST ACTIVITY AFFECTS THE TWIN CITIES IN THE 22Z-24Z TIME FRAME. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS TONIGHT COUPLED WITH THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND DIMINISHING WIND WILL ALLOW MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS TO DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WHERE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...MOISTENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER EVEN MORE BEFORE SUNSET. PRELIMINARY LOOK AT SUNDAY SUGGESTS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE JUST SOUTH OF KRWF-KMSP-KEAU. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SSE 15-20 KNOTS GUSTING 25-30 KNOTS. WINDS SUNDAY SSW 15-20 KNOTS GUSTING 25-30 KNOTS. KMSP...CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL WAVES OF CONVECTION EXPECTED AT THE AIRFIELD IN THE 22Z-24Z TIME PERIOD WITH GUSTY SW WINDS TO 40 KNOTS AND SMALL HAIL. MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH VFR THEREAFTER. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN NITE...VFR. WINDS SW 10KTS. MON...VFR. WINDS W 10-15KTS. TUE...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS NW 20KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWE LONG TERM...BORGHOFF AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
342 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight) Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014 Scattered showers and storms have developed this afternoon, mainly across central and northeast MO into west central IL, due to diurnal heating and destabilization. Although most of this current activity will dissipate by sunset, a more organized band of showers and storms is expected to translate eastward through our forecast area the evening into the overnight hours. This convection is ahead of a shortwave trough currently extending across eastern portions of Nebraska and Kansas. The HRRR model moves this band of convection eastward into central MO just after 7 pm, then into the St Louis metro area by late evening. There may be some strong wind gusts with these storms across northeast and central MO. The convection may gradually weaken late this evening and overnight as it shifts eastward through the St Louis metro area. Low temperatures will be similar to last night, generally in the lower 70s. GKS .LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday) Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014 Overall, it appears that the unsettled weather trend will continue across the region heading into the start of the new week. Trying to pin down these periodic storm chances remain the primary forecast concern. For Sunday, forecast will reflect the thinking that tonight`s convection should be exiting southeast sections of the CWA on Sunday morning; however, if tonight`s complex is quicker than expected, then these morning PoPs may be too high. Once this activity exits, then the question is whether there will be any redevelopment as AMS destabilizes during the afternoon. Short range guidance based off of 12z UA data does suggest several very weak ripples in the flow that will impact the area during the afternoon during max heating, but they are also indicating warming mid level temps along and west of the Mississippi River that may tend to cap any surface based redevelopment. GFS and GEM are a bit more bullish on the increase of 7h temps over central MO, so have left forecast dry in this area with slight chance/low chance PoPs elsewhere. Intense onvection is expected to blossom over the mid-Missouri Valley Sunday afternoon in the very unstable airmass near the surface boundary and ahead of the next shortwave, with this activity quickly growing upscale into a convective complex that will then work into the mid-Mississippi Valley during the overnight hours. While there is still uncertainly on the exact location of storm genesis, all storm propagation vectors from the various 12z solutions have a fairly pronounced southerly component which suggests complex try to build into our CWA with time. Based on this, I`ve tried to be fairly generous with the southward expansion of PoPs and have taken mention of thunder to the I44 corridor in MO/I70 corridor in IL by 12z Monday. Remnants of Sunday nights convection will exit Monday morning, and then there should be a bit of a lull before the third round of convection sweeps across the region (primarily on Monday night) as main cold front and associated shortwave move into the region and interact with the very unstable airmass. Depending upon the amount of cloud cover, Monday should certainly be one of the warmest day so far this summer with 850MB temps of 20-22C and gusty southwest winds, and have maintained going highs in the low-mid 90s over all but our far NW counties. Medium range output continues to suggest below average temperatures, and unusually low summertime humidities, for the first several days of July. Guidance remains in good agreement that axis of atypically deep mid level trof will work into the Great Lakes region, bringing relatively cool and dry air into the mid-Mississippi Valley. Several shortwaves rotating through the trof will track across the region at the same time, which will likely mean a continuation of some shower and thunderstorm threat in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, mainly over southern sections of the CWA where dynamics will have the best chance to interact with the lower level baroclinicity. Right now it looks like more typical temps/humidity levels will be returning by the Fourth of July weekend as upper trof works east and ridging expands from the Rockies into the central CONUS. Rain chances look to be quite low in the Thursday-Saturday time frame. Truett && .AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014 Scattered showers and a few storms were developing early this afternoon from the COU area ne through UIN area. Should also get at least widely scattered showers and storms to develop later this afternoon in the St Louis metro area. A second round of showers/storms is expected this evening into the overnight hours as an upper level disturbance moves eastward through the area. Diurnal cumulus clouds will develop again Sunday morning leading to a possible brief period of MVFR ceilings. Sly surface wind will become more swly by Sunday morning. Specifics for KSTL: Widely scattered to scattered showers/storms will develop this afternoon and continue until early evening. A second round of showers/storms is expected late this evening into the overnight hours. Diurnal cumulus clouds will develop again Sunday morning leading to a possible brief period of MVFR ceilings. Sly surface wind will become more swly by Sunday morning. GKS && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
102 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014 .SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon) Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014 Convective trends are once again the primary forecast problem for today. Still plenty of moisture, and forecast soundings indicate a little more instability than yesterday. There is a well developed MCV over Oklahoma which will move northeast and produce another round of precipitation over western Missouri from late morning into the afternoon, and there is another subtle shortwave currently over western Missouri which the RUC and HRRR seem to be keying on to produce widely scattered convection over central and northeast Missouri early this morning. Have a pretty high confidence it will rain somewhere in the CWFA, sometime today due to these features, tho confidence is low on exact timing and coverage. Generally speaking tho we should see a general increase in coverage due to diurnal heating in the afternoon. MOS temperatures in the mid to upper 80s looked reasonable for highs today with 850mb temps in the 16-18C range, tho any convection will have a large impact on what highs actually turn out to be. Carney .LONG TERM: (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 405 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014 A strong storm system over the Plains currently will track east-northeast into IA and the Upper MS Valley tonight. This will tail a vorticity lobe into our region, and this should be plenty to work convection in and keep it going thru much of the night. This convection will probably come in two waves...the first working in during the evening having already formed further west earlier and then accelerating east and weakening. Enough shear and instability with what should be a mature enough development to warrant a risk for damaging winds in NE and Central MO. Another, more sustained, but likely not severe, wave of convection to then move thru overnight and should keep going--this being supported better by the upper level shortwave. Rain from this wave should then exit on Sunday morning with some redevelopment in the afternoon possible. A MCS is expected to form to our northwest over the Mid-MO valley Sunday night and then track eastward. The main effect will largely miss our region, but this should lay out a boundary for additional development Monday with anticipated destabilization on its south side. Once the synoptic cold front catches up with this Monday night and into Tuesday, should see higher PoPs for more widespread rain. With what should be a more northwesterly mid-level flow heading into the middle of next week, this front is expected to push well south, allowing for a series of cool high pressures to invade and settle in for the end of the week. A dry forecast is therefore in order for most areas to close out the 7-day forecast. Temps to remain at or above normal until about the middle of next week, peaking on Monday with widespread 90s expected. Temps Monday a bit questionable in the north with interference from MCS boundary and enhanced rain chances but I-70 and south, it looks hot. Afternoon heat index values may top out at close to 105 for STL metro and this will need to be watched for need of an Advisory. A couple of bonus nice days Wednesday and Thursday with maxes in the lo-mid 80s. Despite east-southeast flow on the 4th of July, rising heights to 590dm at h500 will warrant higher temps that day, but still looks to be mid-upper 80s for now. A more typical summertime ridging pattern aloft looks to be in store for the rest of the holiday weekend and into the following week with what could be a prolonged period of hot weather. Summer is here. TES && .AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2014 Scattered showers and a few storms were developing early this afternoon from the COU area ne through UIN area. Should also get at least widely scattered showers and storms to develop later this afternoon in the St Louis metro area. A second round of showers/storms is expected this evening into the overnight hours as an upper level disturbance moves eastward through the area. Diurnal cumulus clouds will develop again Sunday morning leading to a possible brief period of MVFR ceilings. Sly surface wind will become more swly by Sunday morning. Specifics for KSTL: Widely scattered to scattered showers/storms will develop this afternoon and continue until early evening. A second round of showers/storms is expected late this evening into the overnight hours. Diurnal cumulus clouds will develop again Sunday morning leading to a possible brief period of MVFR ceilings. Sly surface wind will become more swly by Sunday morning. GKS && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
313 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE HAS SOME CUMULUS FORMING MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF NEBRASKA WITH A FEW FURTHER WEST AS WELL. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW THE WAVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WEAKENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY AND THE UPPER WAVE. THE HRRR KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE 4KM WRF HAS IT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. BOTH OF THEM KEEP THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE EAST OR NORTHEAST. THE MUCAPE IS MAINLY AROUND 3000 J/KG SO THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. IN ADDITION THERE IS A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT THERE TO BE A BREAK DURING THE MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE MORE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THE MUCAPE IS OVER 4000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE POTENTIAL ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING...AND THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUASI-ZONAL...BUT BROADLY CYCLONIC FOR SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW WILL BE WELL NORTH OVER MANITOBA WHILE FLAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. WE MAY CATCH THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL JET TOWARD THE NORTHER CWA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND EAST...BUT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION BY SUNDAY EVENING. WITH A BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE OF 35 TO 45 KTS AND CAPE LIKELY TO BE GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE LIKELY AS DISCREET SUPERCELLS LIKELY FORMING INTO A LINE THAT WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH WITH ITS OUTFLOW. THIS LOOKS LIKE AN EARLY SHOW WITH INCREASED DEWPOINTS ENCOURAGING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT...AGAIN WITH OUTFLOW ENCOURAGING A PUSH TO THE SOUTH...PROBABLY ENDING THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER BY EARLY TO MID-EVENING. SREF SEVERE PARAMETERS EXPLODE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WANE QUICKLY BY EVENING. TORNADO PARAMETERS ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...SO AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT NOT AS LIKELY INTO THE EVENING. SOME ELEVATED STORMS COULD POP UP...ESPECIALLY NORTH LATER ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY GONE BY THEN. BY MONDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH WITH ENOUGH SINKING AIR TO PREVENT ANY CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A BIT BREEZY...CONSIDERING POTENTIAL HEIGHT RISES. WE TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST AND TROUGH IN THE EAST. WE SEEM TO BE TRANSITIONING TO A WARMER AND DRY PERIOD AS THE HIGH BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED...MOSTLY SUPPRESSING RAIN DEVELOPMENT AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME THAT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH COULD WEAKEN AND PERHAPS ALLOW SOME WAVES TO AFFECT US...ESPECIALLY IN OUR EAST. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING THE NEXT SHOT AT SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE AID OF A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA...BUT EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JCB LONG TERM...HEINLEIN AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
241 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES. ANALYSIS OF MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWS THAT A DEEPLY MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ONSHORE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. FOR US THAT MEANS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG THE COAST...BUT OTHERWISE NOT AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIGHTNING AND WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL. THE HURRICANE CENTER IS FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT AND AT PRESENT GIVES IT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND 60 PERCENT THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. IN ANY CASE...IT IS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD AND EXPECT ITS ASSOCIATED RAINBANDS TO BE PULLED SOUTH WITH IT. HAVE GRADUALLY DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THIS SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT PROGRESSES. HAVE CONTINUED TO STAY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE...AND CLOSE TO THE LAV...FOR OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS. THIS STRATEGY HAS CONTINUED TO WORK VERY WELL. THIS WILL GIVE US LOWS OF AROUND 70 FOR MOST PLACES...WITH MID 70S AT THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH WHILE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FL/GA COAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED SUN. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW BUT BUILDING 5H RIDGE WILL WORK TO DRY THE MID LEVELS. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP BY AROUND HALF AN INCH SUN THEY WILL STILL BE VERY CLOSE TO CLIMO. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LINGERING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. UNDER THE 5H RIDGE STORM MOTIONS WILL AGAIN BE UNDER 10 KT AND STORMS WILL HAVE ABILITY TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS. HOWEVER THE OVERALL FLOODING THREAT IS DECREASED GIVEN THE LOWER EXPECTED COVERAGE. HIGHS CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW CLIMO WITH CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP LOWS ABOVE CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S. MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN MON FURTHER DRYING MID LEVELS WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE. CONFIDENCE MON IS ON THE LOW SIDE...IN PART DUE TO EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE LURKING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE AND RESULTING MID LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE AND THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES WOULD POINT TO PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING LATER IN THE PERIOD. WILL CARRY LOW CHC POP MON WITH HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL CREEP UP A DEGREE OR TWO...NEARING CLIMO...AS THE 5H RIDGE BUILDS. LOWS CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE CLIMO. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...FOCUS WILL REMAIN ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROPICAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. ON TUESDAY THE LOW SHOULD BE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST BUT MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE FATE OF THE LOW THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL DIG DOWN THROUGH MID WEEK PUSHING A TROUGH/FRONT EAST THROUGH THURS BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY. THE TROPICAL LOW OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD GET PICKED UP BY THIS TROUGH PUSHING EAST. GFS JUST SHOWS SOME CONVECTION MOVING UP THROUGH THE OFF SHORE WATERS FRI INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS A MORE DEFINED SFC LOW TRACKING UP THROUGH THE OFF SHORE WATERS OFF OF CAPE FEAR FRI REACHING THE WATERS OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS BY SAT MORNING. INITIALLY SHOULD SEE WEAK RETURN FLOW AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER INLAND AREAS TUES INTO WED. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED THROUGH MID WEEK AS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE UP THE EAST COAST. BY LATE WED INTO THURS MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CAROLINAS....MAINLY WELL INLAND. BY LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY...THE ENTIRE TROUGH PUSHES EAST AS THE REMNANT TROPICAL LOW MOVES UP THE COAST. SHOULD SEE ADDED SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH OVER COASTAL CAROLINAS BEFORE SHIFTING OFF SHORE. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST KEEPING GREATEST CONVECTION FROM THE LOW WELL OFF SHORE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS BEHIND FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI INTO SATURDAY. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE WED WELL INLAND AND LATE THURS INTO FRI OVER MOST OF LOCAL FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN A MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN 90 TO 95 MOST DAYS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 18Z...A LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES IS SPIRALING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS MOISTURE AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT IN LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AND THEY ARE LIFTING. BUT...NOW THE TROPICAL CONVECTION IS OCCURRING MAINLY OVER ILM...THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION SLOWLY INCREASE NEAR THE TAF SITES AND WILL HAVE A MENTION OF TS AND VCTS THROUGH LATE EVENING AT THE OTHER SITES. EXPECT POSSIBLE STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CONVECTION IS EXPECT AFTER 15 UTC ON SUNDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD POSSIBLY CREATING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 3:00 PM FRIDAY...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA WILL KEEP UP A STEADY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KTS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS WILL STAY IN THEIR PRESENT 2 OR 3 FT RANGE. THE LOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE WATERS SUN. WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY MON WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SETTLES SOUTH. GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH THE CAVEAT THAT THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST DOES NOT UNDERGO ANY MEANINGFUL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT WITH ISOLATED 4 FT POSSIBLE ALONG OUTER EDGES OF NC ZONES. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH LAND/SEA BREEZE DOMINATING NEAR SHORE WINDS. TROPICAL LOW SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA ON TUES AND IT SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH WED INTO THURS AS TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGS DOWN AND PUSHES EASTWARD. MODELS DIFFER AS TO INTENSITY OF THIS LOW WITH THE GFS BEING THE WEAKEST WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS A 1013 MB LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON FRI. EITHER WAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE S-SW WED NIGHT INTO THURS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. EXPECT WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS TUES INTO WED WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WED NIGHT INTO THURS WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 3 TO 5 FT BY THURS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...III LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...DRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
134 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1:30 PM SATURDAY...SHOWERS WITH A VERY TROPICAL FEEL ARE MOVING SW ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY FURTHER INLAND. HAVE UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT THIS AND HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWS: WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEEP AND MOIST CIRCULATION AROUND THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR S AND E WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MOIST AIR IS LIFTED UP AND OVER THE SHALLOW FRONT. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL BE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONT TODAY...THE AIR MASS IS EVERY BIT AS MOIST AS THAT OF FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP NEAR 2.25 INCHES. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...AROUND 5 KT. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT IN THAT THE GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THE RESULTING FLOOD RISK WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WRAP CYCLONICALLY AROUND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE. STILL...THE CIRCULATION IS BROAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH ABOUT CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING OFFSHORE CONVECTION WILL WRAP INTO THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND MORE COASTAL ENVIRONS TO INCLUDE THE BEACHES THIS MORNING. THE GREATEST RISK FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN. SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER IN LOW-LYING AREAS IS LIKELY. THE RISK FOR FLOODING WILL BE HIGHER TODAY IN COMMUNITIES WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL ON FRIDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN URBANIZED AREAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE NEAR AN INCH ON THE COAST WITH PREDICTED AMOUNTS TAPERING TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. HOWEVER...LIKE WE SAW ON FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO EXCEED 3 OR 4 INCHES. ONE TO THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS ON THE ORDER OF 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES AND UP TO 4 INCHES. GIVEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS NECESSARY TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS HIGHEST...DECIDED A FLOOD WATCH WAS NOT QUITE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP CLOUDS PLENTIFUL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL IMPACT HIGHS WHICH ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH PERHAPS A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE REGION. RAIN COOLED COMMUNITIES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 70S AND THEN ATTEMPT TO RECOVER ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR 70 ACROSS MANY INLAND LOCATIONS WITH LOWER TO MID 70S AT THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...DESPITE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE COLUMN AS PW REMAINS ABOVE 2 INCHES. SURFACE WAVE WILL HAVE SUNKEN OFF THE NE FL COAST BY SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OFF LONG ISLAND. COMBINED THIS LEADS TO A CONTINUATION OF ONSHORE FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL HOLD ON TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED POPS A LITTLE HIGHER ALONG THE COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY WHEREAS IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS FOR THE SURFACE SYSTEM. REGARDLESS IT APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY IF ITS STILL AROUND TO HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON LOCAL WEATHER. WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER MONDAYS HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THEIR SUPPRESSED SUNDAY COUNTERPARTS. THERE SHOULD STILL BE A SCATTERING OF MAINLY AFTERNOON TSTMS HOWEVER AS NUMEROUS OUTFLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...TUESDAY STILL FINDS A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION BUT IT WILL BE RATHER BROAD AND OF LOW AMPLITUDE. THIS RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS TROUGHINESS TAKES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL THUS BE HARD TO PICK OUT ANY GIVEN DAY WHERE RAIN CHANCES DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE TYPICAL LOW END CHANCE RANGE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHER VALUES ASSOCIATED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA AND LIKELY STALLS. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 18Z...A LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES IS SPIRALING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS MOISTURE AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT IN LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AND THEY ARE LIFTING. BUT...NOW THE TROPICAL CONVECTION IS OCCURRING MAINLY OVER ILM...THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS CONVECTION SLOWLY INCREASE NEAR THE TAF SITES AND WILL HAVE A MENTION OF TS AND VCTS THROUGH LATE EVENING AT THE OTHER SITES. EXPECT POSSIBLE STRATUS AND FOG AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CONVECTION IS EXPECT AFTER 15 UTC ON SUNDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD POSSIBLY CREATING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1:30 PM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND WERE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEAK AND NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS PERIOD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIE NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. THIS WILL KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RATHER LOOSE. WIND SPEEDS WILL THUS NOT EXCEED 10 TO 15 KT. THE DIRECTION WILL BE E OR NE THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE A COMBINATION OF WIND AND SWELL ENERGY. TOTAL SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 3 TO 4 FT. AN 8 TO 10 SECOND ESE SWELL WILL PERSIST. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...LIGHT EAST WINDS ON SUNDAY BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE DISTANT LOW TO THE SOUTH AS WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF LONG ISLAND. THOUGH WIND SPEEDS MINIMAL THE EASTERLY/ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE MAXIMALLY EFFECTIVE AT BRINGING HIGHER OFFSHORE WAVES INTO THE FORECAST ZONES ALTHOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED AT 3 FT THEMSELVES. THE SURFACE LOW MAY STILL BE AROUND TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE OFFSHORE HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD. LOCAL FLOW MAY REMAIN EASTERLY OR BEGIN TO VEER. NO REAL CHANGES IN SPEEDS HOWEVER AND SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BARRING TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE OFF THE COAST WIND AND SEAS TO REMAIN QUITE SUMMER LIKE AND MINIMAL. WIND SPEEDS CAPPED AT 10 KT AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT. AT SOME POINT THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT EXACTLY WHEN THIS OCCURS HINGES ON THE YET UNCERTAIN FATE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...REK/RJD SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...DRH MARINE...REK/RJD/MBB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
250 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z AS A RESULT. SURFACE LOW IS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN UP AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS LED TO INCREASING WIND SPEED AND PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ROTATING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO PROG THE LOW TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA TONIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING. THINK THE FLOODING THREAT SHOULD END ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE EVENING. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WINDS ON SUNDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT STALLS OVER LAKE MANITOBA. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT FLOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY...LEADING TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AREAWIDE BY MID-MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDIEST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE ON WHERE AND FOR HOW LONG TO PUT OUT A WIND ADVISORY (IF WARRANTED) FOR SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MONDAY...GENERATING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW IN EXITING THE REGION...A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BENEATH THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY. A RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE RIDGE FLATTENS BY FRIDAY AND CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WITH FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER KBIS-KMOT-KJMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-018>023-025-033>037-041-042-044>048-050-051. && $$ SHORT TERM...TM LONG TERM...TM AVIATION...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
102 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ROTATE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY NOTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY ADVECT INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 22Z-23Z THIS AFTERNOON...PER THE HRRR SOLUTION. THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THE 12Z KBIS SOUNDING INDICATED PWATS AROUND 186 PERCENT OF NORMAL THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HI-RES DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE/EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN PERSISTING OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THE BACK SIDE OF A SURFACE LOW THIS MORNING. AS ITS PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 23Z. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY 20Z...WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE EVENING. NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 FOLLOWED THE 09-10 UTC RAP/HRRR ITERATIONS FOR POPS AND QPF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON WITH THEIR CURRENT GOOD HANDLING OF PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC. SEE WPC MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION #160 FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT DETAILS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM WESTERN MONTANA INTO KANSAS...WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS BEING REFLECTED IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z TODAY...AND THEN INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BY 00Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PARALLELING THIS SURFACE FEATURE. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW SLIDES NORTH ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO EXPAND TODAY. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR...GFS AND ECMWF. THUS WENT CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG THE TRACK OF THE LOW...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. WOULD EXPECT SOME COUNTIES IN THE WEST TO BE SHAVED OFF FROM THE WATCH AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE HEAVIER SHOWERS BECOME FOCUSED MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. POPS TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FOR THE NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG...DENSE AT TIMES IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW CROSSING THE SOUTHERN BORDER SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THIS AREA. ISSUED A NOWCAST TO COVER THIS AS THE DURATION AND AREAL COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 THE IMPACTS OF AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE WARM UP FOR THE FOURTH WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A -3.5 STANDARD DEVIATION LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA SUNDAY...AND INTO WESTERN ONTARIO MONDAY WILL YIELD A WINDY PERIOD SUNDAY AND MONDAY SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...WHICH IS JUST SHY OF ADVISORY. FOR SUNDAY...SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE US HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR WITH A DRY SLOT ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. FOR MONDAY...GREATER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...ENHANCED BY AFTERNOON HEATING. A POTENTIAL WARM UP WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S IS SUGGESTED BY THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE FOR THE FOURTH AND THE FIFTH WITH A BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER KBIS-KMOT-KJMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-018>023-025-033>037-041-042-044>048-050-051. && $$ UPDATE...TM SHORT TERM...KS LONG TERM...AYD AVIATION...TM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
402 PM EDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE OF STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO FROM NNW-TO-SSE. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS BOUNDARY...CONDITIONS WERE RAINY AND CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING...WHICH HAS HINDERED RISES IN TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT INSTABILITY VALUES ARE SIMILAR ON EITHER SIDE...AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. NONETHELESS...THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE FRONT...WHERE HEATING WAS MAXIMIZED AND CONVERGENCE IS ALSO PRESENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE WELL OVER AN INCH AND A HALF...AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE OCCASIONAL THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME OF THE STRONGER CORES ALSO PRODUCED BRIEF STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS (DEPICTED ON TCMH) EARLIER...AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...THOUGH ONLY WITH THE MOST INTENSE OF THE CONVECTION. THE SPECIFICS ON TIMING...PLACEMENT...AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE CWA ARE NOT AS CERTAIN AS WOULD BE IDEAL. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND AFTER 21Z...WITH THE AXIS OF GREATEST ACTIVITY MOVING NORTHEAST WITH TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOT OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...SO THIS MAY NOT BE AS QUICK A DIMINISHING TREND AS THE HRRR (FOR EXAMPLE) IS FORECASTING. BY OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH MUCH OF THE CWA DRYING OUT FOR A WHILE GOING INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. WITH NO CHANGE TO THE MOIST CONDITIONS...WARM MIN TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED (NEAR 70 DEGREES). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY MORNING...A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AIR MASS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...WITH TIMING ACROSS THE ILN CWA APPEARING TO BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE. HEADING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING THE REGION...AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WITH AN EXPECTATION FOR CLOUDS AND MOIST CONDITIONS...MAX TEMPS FOR MONDAY WERE BROUGHT DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. SIMILAR MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT IN COMPARISON TO SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL NOT ARRIVE INTO OUR REGION UNTIL TUESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...MINOR DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ON MONDAY. LARGE SCALE MID LVL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WILL SLOWLY PUSH AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY SLOWING UP AS IT PUSHES INTO THE ERN/SERN CWFA TUESDAY NIGHT. MAIN UPR LVL DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...SO CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON DAYTIME HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. HAVE RAMPED POPS UP TO A LEAST 50 FOR NOW AS AM NOT CONVINCED IF CONVERGENCE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. POPS WILL WANE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN IN THE EAST/SRN ZONES DUE TO THE FRONT IN THE PROXIMITY. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY MERGING INTO THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH AS IT DIGS SLOWLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FIRST FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY EXIT OUR SE AND PERHAPS DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. TIMING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE OUR IN QUESTION FOR THE NEXT FRONT AT THIS POINT IN TIME SO HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH POPS DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST. LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO SE CANADA AND THE CENTRAL/ERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL OFFER A DRIER AND A LITTLE COOLER AIRMASS. AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WHILE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITS EAST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT MID LVL RIDGING WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODIFY ON SATURDAY WITH 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT KCVG AND KLUK WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT NOT NECESSARILY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS HITTING KDAY AND KILN WILL OCCUR EARLY AND LIKELY NOT REACH ANY STRENGTH TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AT KCMH/KLCK THERE COULD STILL BE A STORM POP AS TEMPERATURES THERE HAVE BUMPED TOWARDS 90 DEGREES AND CONVECTION COULD STILL INITIATE WHERE SUNSHINE IS STILL ABUNDANT. HIGHER CLOUDS AT 12-15KFT WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. LOWER STRATOCU AND CU WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT IN MOST SPOTS AND IF SKIES CLEAR OUT A LITTLE IN THE 12-15KFT RANGE...FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING AND MOVE INTO OHIO FROM INDIANA AND AFFECT WESTERN TAF SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK...SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR CIGS MONDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HATZOS NEAR TERM...HATZOS SHORT TERM...HATZOS LONG TERM...HICKMAN AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1226 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM. CLUSTER OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO NE OK TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REDEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER DID NOT FORECAST AS LOW OF CEILINGS AS CURRENT MAV/MET GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS BEEN TOO PESSIMISTIC THE LAST FEW DAYS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014/ ..UPDATE... DISCUSSION... STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES EASTWARD THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AHEAD OF ACTIVITY... MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR-MASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE RUNNING INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. STRONGER FORCING IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PUSHES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. BUT...AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES...COULD STILL SEE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS AS CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS SCENARIO IS IN LINE WITH WITH THE LATEST LOCAL WRF AND HRRR RUNS. UPDATE SENT PREVIOUSLY TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING...HOWEVER WILL LIKELY TWEAK TIMING OF POPS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS TRENDS BECOME MORE CERTAIN. && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...12
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL FRONT OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA THAT IS OUTRUNNING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS MOVING NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. ANTICIPATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE TO POP UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNCAPPED. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO VERY WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT...BUT COULD SEE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. AS THE UPSTREAM FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE REGION...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE EVENING HOURS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN FROM THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BUT THINKING THESE SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. THEN ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT FROM LATE EVENING ONWARD. THOUGH PWATS WILL BE UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME TONIGHT. PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW SUSTAINED ELEVATED CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG DURING THIS PERIOD WHEN STORMS SHOULD BE PUSHING THROUGH. WITH FORCING ON THE WEAKER SIDE AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS ONLY 15-20 KTS...AM THINKING THAT THE LINE OF STORMS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS BUT THEY SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH AT A MODERATE CLIP THERE BY KEEPING THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT IN CHECK. MUGGY LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER NE WISCONSIN UNTIL THE UPPER FRONT CLEARS DOOR COUNTY...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR BY LATE MORNING. THEREAFTER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE TAKING UP SHOP OVER THE LAKE WINNIPEG REGION AS A BEEFY 100KT JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW. SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF CLEARING TAKE PLACE FROM MID-MORNING ONWARD AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL SERVE TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGH PEAK HEATING AHEAD OF A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACCOMPANYING THE JET STREAK...WILL START RAMPING UP THE SHOWER AND STORM THREAT BY MID-AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TOMORROW AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TODAYS READINGS...SO BOOSTED UP MAXES A COUPLE DEGREES. ML CAPES SHOULD STILL REMAIN IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEARS WILL INCREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE JET STREAK TO 35-45 KNOTS. IF ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CAN GENERATE A FEW STORMS...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG WIND FIELDS. A DISCRETE STORM MODE WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS...WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A TORNADO. AT THIS TIME...THINKING ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 SEVERE TSTM AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...AND A RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT WORK WEEK...ARE THE MAIN FCST CONCERNS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED SEVERE CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE NW HALF OF THE CWA BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...AIDED BY THE TAIL END OF A S/W TROF...A JET STREAK...STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF WIND SHEAR...SUPERCELLS OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...AND BE SUSTAINED BY THE RRQ OF AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH-END CHANCE OR LOW-END LIKELY POPS...DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN LOCATION AND TIMING. WITH H8 DEW POINTS INCREASING TO +12 TO +16 C AND K-INDICES OF 35 TO 40... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO ANTICIPATED. ON MONDAY...MODELS DEPICT A GENERAL LULL IN THE CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING...ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECHARGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT SEVERE CONVECTION TO FIRE AGAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH C/NE WI MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...THE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVG WITH THE RRQ OF A 100 KT JET STREAK. MODELS HAVE SOME CRITICAL DIFFERENCES...WHICH WILL HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ON THE FCST. FIRST OF ALL...THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE HEAVIER PCPN...DELAYING IT UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...WHILE THE GEM/GFS BRING A BULLSEYE INTO THE RGN MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER KEY FEATURE IS THE PRESENCE OF A SFC LOW RIPPLING NE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE ECMWF/NAM MODEL RUNS. IF THIS OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BECOME MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS AN OBVIOUS CONCERN. WILL ISSUE AN ESF TO ADDRESS THE HYDRO CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING... ALLOWING PCPN TO END AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND S/W TROF WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA. PCPN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MIDWEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY HAS SOME SIGNIFICANT PCPN OVER THE FA ON WEDS NGT... BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE ANOTHER COUPLE MODEL RUNS BEFORE JUMPING ON THAT TREND. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW BRINGING A CHANCE OF TSTMS AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WARM AND MUGGY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN DROP BLO NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. A RETURN TO NORMAL READINGS IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY THINKING STORMS WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 39/US 51 CORRIDOR. ONCE THE DISTURBANCE EXITS EARLY THIS EVENING...CIGS WILL BE SLOWLY FALLING DUE TO A HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. AM THINKING THE STORMS WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE EXITING NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BETWEEN 12-15Z. IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN ANY STORMS. CLEARING SKIES AFTER 15Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF DENSE FOG OFFSHORE FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL DOOR COUNTY. DUE TO JUICY AIR FLOWING OVER THE COLDER WATERS...DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. WILL KEEP THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR STARTERS. BUT DESPITE THE ONSHORE FLOW...NO BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED DUE TO THE FOG AND COLD WATERS. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH AVIATION.......MPC MARINE.........MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
152 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS HAS A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FEED OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WAS PRODUCING SEVERAL LINES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MN/IA...AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OTHERWISE...A WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT AND CONVECTION THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CONSENSUS OF MESO-WRF MODELS CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH/FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NAM 0-1KM MLCAPE IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20KT. MEANWHILE... PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. SO...INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR PERHAPS SOME ORGANIZED LINE/S OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. RAP ALSO SHOWING SOMEWHAT ENHANCED NON- TORNADIC SUPERCELL SIGNATURE FOR PERHAPS A BRIEF SPIN-UP OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE/S OF CONVECTION. APPEARS RIGHT NOW THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE IN THE 4-10 PM TIME FRAME. APPEARS THE TROUGH AND BULK OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON SUNDAY...AFTER A BRIEF MORNING LULL IN THE ACTION...PLAN ON ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA MAINLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THROUGH CENTRAL IA. THERE WILL BE AMPLE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-35KT RANGE AND MUCAPE IN THE 1800-2500J/KG GOING INTO SUNDAY EVENING FOR A ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MID-LEVELS WILL ALSO BE IN COOLING MODE FOR STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN GENERATING A MID- LEVEL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND RACING ITO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM SOUTHERN WI INTO CENTRAL IA. MODEL CONSENSUS 0-3KM MUCAPE RUNNING SOMEWHERE AROUND 1200J/KG ALONG/NORTH OF I-94...TO NEAR 3000J/KG ACROSS NORTHEAST IA. THE NAM IS THE MOST BALLISTIC WITH CAPE NEARING 5500J/KG BY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST IA. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL INDICATING AMPLE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 35-55KT RANGE. SO...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SHOT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. TORNADO/LARGE HAIL THREAT ALSO LOOKS HIGHER FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WI INTO NORTHEAST IA WHERE NAM INDICATES STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES IN THE 500-700 RANGE. LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING HOURS. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS/ECMWF INDICATING COOLER/CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE REGION. TUESDAY LOOKS PRIME FOR SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH COLDEST POOL OF AIR ALOFT. FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY...SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS ARISE AS THE ECMWF BUILDS A FLAT RIDGE INTO THE REGION WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS COOLER/BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLATED TO DRIVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...AND WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR A LINE OF TSRA/SHRA THAT WILL IMPACT KRST/KLSE BETWEEN 22-03Z. EXPECTING IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STORMS...ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ENHANCED WINDS. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE MOVED EAST BY 03Z...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. MODELS THEN HINT THAT LOW STRATUS COULD AGAIN DEVELOP UNDER THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION TOWARD 12Z ON SUN - SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING. LOOKS REASONABLE ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED TO EVALUATED LATER TO SEE IF THE POTENTIAL IS STILL PROBABLE. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014 PLAN ON PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. DUE TO MOSTLY TRANSITORY NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY END UP BEING MORE OF A LOCALIZED THREAT. HOWEVER...IF TRAINING OCCURS...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE PROBLEMATIC. THIS COULD BE THE ISSUE MORE ON MONDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH PLAN ON THE MAIN STEM OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH NEXT WEEK DUE TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM...DAS AVIATION...RIECK HYDROLOGY...DAS