Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/27/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1036 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
DISTRIBUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS GOING TO HINGE ON
WHETHER OR NOT THE DRY AIR ADVERTISED BY THE RAP MOVES OUT ONTO
THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
APPEARS TO SHOW A RATHER UNIFORM AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM THE GOES SOUNDER SHOWS DRY AIR
FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE HAS MOVED OVER
THE PALMER DIVIDE. THE GPS DERIVED POINT-BASED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND THE STATE SHOW SLIGHT DRYING OVER THE LAST 2
HOURS...BUT VALUES A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A WEAK WAVE SET TO MOVE OUT OF THE
MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
RIPPLE OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. FOR THE TIME BEING
WILL STICK WITH THE FORECASTED CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO STICK WITH THE IDEA THAT A FAST MOVING BAND
OF SHOWERS THAT MOVES OUT OF THE FOOTHILLS AROUND MIDDAY WILL
SWEEP TO THE EASTERN BORDER BY EARLY EVENING...WITH NO ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND IT. INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP. WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
COVERS PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS GOING TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S...SO AS
TEMPERATURES WARM UP...ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN INITIATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
UNLIKE YESTERDAY WHERE QUASIGEOSTROPHIC SUBSIDENCE CREATED A
RATHER HOSTILE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FAVORABLE HEATING TIME NO SUCH SUBSIDENCE IS PREDICTED TODAY. ON
THE CONTRARY RAP QG VERTICAL MOTIONS SHOW WEAK ASCENT PRESENTLY
OVER COLORADO WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MAXIMUM
HEATING TIME. INDEED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WHICH BLENDS NICELY WITH
THE CIRA/WRF FORECAST SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONSEQUENTLY A MORE
NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. GPS
MEASURED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL HOVERING AROUND AN
INCH EAST OF THE HILLS AND VERTICAL WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION IN MANY PARTS OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST INSTABILITY ON THE OTHER HAND IS
RATHER CURIOUS AND WILL PROBABLY BE THE MAIN DRIVING FACTOR IN
WHICH AREAS GET WHAT. LOCATIONS EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR SHOULD
BE ABLE TO HOLD ONTO HIGH CAPE VALUES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS HIGHER OUT THERE. CLOSER
TO THE MOUNTAINS THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING PLUMMETING CAPE VALUES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE IN PART A REFLECTION OF THE
POST-CONVECTIVE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH MOUNTAIN-INITIATED
CONVECTION OR DUE DRIER AIR MIXING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
THE WEST. KGJT AND KSLC RAOBS WERE PRETTY DRY LAST EVENING AND THE
GPS MEASURED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THERE ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF THE VALUES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AT 10Z.
IF CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO FIRE ON THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
MORNING CAN TAP INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR PRESENTLY RESIDING OVER
THE URBAN CORRIDOR SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD EXIST OVER
THE THERE DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IF MIXING
OCCURS TOO EARLY THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LESSENED. AS IS THE CASE WITH THE SEVERE THREAT...FLOODING
CONCERNS IN THE FOOTHILLS...ESPECIALLY IN THE BURN SCARS...COULD
BE ELEVATED IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS IF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY CAN TAP INTO THE MOISTURE LADEN AIR. TOUGH TO MAKE A
CALL ON THESE DETAILS AT PRESENT BUT THE SITUATION CERTAINLY BEARS
WATCHING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER
THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WITH THE FOCUS FOR MUCH OF THE TSTM
ACTIVITY IN THE AFTN AND EVENING WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE. IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THERE MAY BE AN
ISOLATED HIGH BASED TSTM OR TWO BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT. FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...
RUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN CO FRIDAY AFTN. OVERALL THE AMS WILL BE
FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WL GO WITH 10-20 PERCENT POPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS...HIGHEST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF DENVER.
OVER THE WEEKEND...A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND 90. A BROAD RIDGE WILL EXTEND FM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IT WILL REMAIN DRY
ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NERN CO MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH. AS A
RESULT...IT MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF TSTMS FM THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE
EASTWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
A QUICK ROUND OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE AIRPORT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS COULD DROP TO
5000-6000 FT AGL AS THE STORMS MOVE OVER. RAPID CLEARING IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SHOWERS. AFTER SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH WINDS
SHOULD RETURN TO SOUTHERLY AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER
AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...DANKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
429 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
UNLIKE YESTERDAY WHERE QUASIGEOSTROPHIC SUBSIDENCE CREATED A
RATHER HOSTILE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FAVORABLE HEATING TIME NO SUCH SUBSIDENCE IS PREDICTED TODAY. ON
THE CONTRARY RAP QG VERTICAL MOTIONS SHOW WEAK ASCENT PRESENTLY
OVER COLORADO WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MAXIMUM
HEATING TIME. INDEED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WHICH BLENDS NICELY WITH
THE CIRA/WRF FORECAST SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONSEQUENTLY A MORE
NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. GPS
MEASURED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL HOVERING AROUND AN
INCH EAST OF THE HILLS AND VERTICAL WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION IN MANY PARTS OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST INSTABILITY ON THE OTHER HAND IS
RATHER CURIOUS AND WILL PROBABLY BE THE MAIN DRIVING FACTOR IN
WHICH AREAS GET WHAT. LOCATIONS EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR SHOULD
BE ABLE TO HOLD ONTO HIGH CAPE VALUES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS HIGHER OUT THERE. CLOSER
TO THE MOUNTAINS THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING PLUMMETING CAPE VALUES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE IN PART A REFLECTION OF THE
POST-CONVECTIVE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH MOUNTAIN-INITIATED
CONVECTION OR DUE DRIER AIR MIXING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
THE WEST. KGJT AND KSLC RAOBS WERE PRETTY DRY LAST EVENING AND THE
GPS MEASURED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THERE ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF THE VALUES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AT 10Z.
IF CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO FIRE ON THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
MORNING CAN TAP INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR PRESENTLY RESIDING OVER
THE URBAN CORRIDOR SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD EXIST OVER
THE THERE DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IF MIXING
OCCURS TOO EARLY THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LESSENED. AS IS THE CASE WITH THE SEVERE THREAT...FLOODING
CONCERNS IN THE FOOTHILLS...ESPECIALLY IN THE BURN SCARS...COULD
BE ELEVATED IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS IF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY CAN TAP INTO THE MOISTURE LADEN AIR. TOUGH TO MAKE A
CALL ON THESE DETAILS AT PRESENT BUT THE SITUATION CERTAINLY BEARS
WATCHING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER
THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WITH THE FOCUS FOR MUCH OF THE TSTM
ACTIVITY IN THE AFTN AND EVENING WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE. IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THERE MAY BE AN
ISOLATED HIGH BASED TSTM OR TWO BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT. FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...
RUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN CO FRIDAY AFTN. OVERALL THE AMS WILL BE
FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WL GO WITH 10-20 PERCENT POPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS...HIGHEST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF DENVER.
OVER THE WEEKEND...A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND 90. A BROAD RIDGE WILL EXTEND FM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IT WILL REMAIN DRY
ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NERN CO MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH. AS A
RESULT...IT MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF TSTMS FM THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE
EASTWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THUNDERSTORM
THREAT SHOULD BE EARLIER TODAY AND A BIT GREATER AT THE TERMINALS
THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE THREAT POSSIBLY ENDING BEFORE 00Z.
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED AT KDEN AND KAPA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
KBJC SEEING EITHER LIGHTER NORTHEAST OR NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF WESTERLY WINDS IF INITIAL WAVE OF CONVECTION
COMES OFF THE MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1000 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
AND CREEP THROUGH ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN ON
FRIDAY AND REMAIN NEARBY HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO REACH OUR REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SKY OVER OUR REGION WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AT MID MORNING. THERE
WERE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN CAROLINE COUNTY,
MARYLAND. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH DEW POINT
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, SO IT WAS QUITE HUMID.
WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING, THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING SLOWLY
FROM THE WEST TO ENHANCE THE LIFT.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THAT THE SHOWERS ON THE MIDDLE
DELMARVA WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD, EXPAND AND INTENSIFY DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 2 INCHES SO
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE CDFNT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACRS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WILL START WITH LIKELY POPS ERLY AND TAPER TO CHC BY THE END OF
THE PD. PRECIP SHUD BE WINDING DOWN FROM NW TO SE BY DAYBREAK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5-WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAK TROUGHING, ZONAL-ISH FLOW, ACROSS THE
REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO
TRANSITION TO RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND BUT THEN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
INTO ANOTHER BOUT OF FAST ZONAL FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD...MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED AS THIS OCCURS.
THURSDAY...POOR MANS ENSEMBLE SHOWS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY
MOVING THROUGH AS THE BERMUDA RIDGING STARTS GETTING AMPED UP. THE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SLOWLY LIMPING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD SLOW THE FRONTS EXIT FURTHER SO WE CONTINUE
WITH THE CHANCE POPS, SLOWLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES A BIT OF A QUESTION TOO, MAINLY WEST OF I-95. AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE IS SOME WEAK CAA TAKING PLACE BUT
SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO BE MORE WESTERLY FOR A TIME. THE DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT WOULD HELP TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES BUT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING
OVERHEAD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT THEN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AND ULTIMATELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES TEMPERED DOWN A BIT. NOT TOO CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME
WITH HIGHS TOMORROW BUT DID UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A COUPLE DEGREES
ACROSS THE WEST GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY AND WINDS BACK AROUND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. MUCH
LIKE OVER THE PAST WEEKEND WE WILL STILL HAVE THE WEAK LINGERING
TROUGH NEARBY WITH A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR INTERIOR AREAS AND BETTER HEATING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
ON THURSDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW OCCURRING.
SATURDAY - TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS RIDGING BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL HAVE
SHIFTED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION PUTTING US IN THE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME RING OF FIRE FLOW REGIME. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON SO WE CONTINUE WITH THE
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING EACH DAY AS HEIGHTS
RISE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED BACK
INTO THE REGION. THERE LOOK TO BE A COUPLE DAYS WHERE WE COULD
EXCEED 90F.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MVFR CEILINGS WERE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES AT MID
MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURG THE
ERLY AFTN AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING CDFNT FROM THE W.
THE APPROACHING CDFNT WILL BRING SHRA/TSRA. SOME OF THE RAIN CUD
BE HEAVY AND THERE COULD BE A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR AS SOME SHOWERS
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE BEYOND THAT EVEN AFTER THE RAIN ENDS.
A GENL S WIND IS EXPECTED, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS, PSBLY A BIT
HIGHER DURG THE AFTN AND OF COURSE HIGHER IN ANY TSRA.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PDS
WITH A GENL S FLOW AHEAD OF A CDFNT THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE. SHWRS AND TSRA
ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE CFP.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND
THEN VEER TOWARDS SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL DECREASE
TO AROUND 2-3 FEET BY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT
REMAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCAL FLOODING AS THE PW VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES.
AS A COLD FRONT NEARS, THE FLOW IS GENERALLY PARALLEL TO IT WHICH
INTRODUCES THE RISK FOR TRAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
RATHER EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS, AND ANY TRAINING OR MULTICELL
CLUSTERS WILL ENHANCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT. THE ARRIVAL
OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND ALLOW FOR MORE FOCUSED DOWNPOURS. THIS LOOKS TO
INITIALLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, THEN IT GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EAST DURING THE EVENING. THE 1-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
SHOWS NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
WITH VALUES AT OR LESS THAN 2.00 INCHES. THESE SIMILAR AREAS ON
THE 3-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAVE VALUES BETWEEN ABOUT 2.00 AND
2.50 INCHES. IT IS THESE LOCATIONS AND THE MORE URBANIZED SPOTS
THAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS NOT BEING ISSUED ATTM DUE TO SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCH
CONVECTION DEVELOPS /AREAL COVERAGE/ AND WHERE IF BECOMES FOCUSED
THE LONGEST. A MENTION HOWEVER REMAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
MARINE...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
HYDROLOGY...GORSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
613 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AND
CREEP THROUGH ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN ON FRIDAY
AND REMAIN NEARBY HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM LOOKS TO REACH OUR REGION BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONTINUE TO PARE BACK THE ERLY POPS AS PRECIP REMAINS WELL BACK IN
PA. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER FOR THE EARLY UPDATE.
LTST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE PRECIP WELL BACK IN WRN PA MOVG GENLY
NEWD. VERY LITTLE EWD PROGRESSION WAS NOTED. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING THINGS WELL. PRECIP REALLY DOESN`T ARRIVE IN OUR CWA UNTIL
THE LATER MRNG HOURS WITH THE FRONT DURG THE LATE AFTN INTO THE EVEN
HRS.
A S/WV WILL ENHANCE UVV, BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING IS N AND W AND
BEST CHCS FOR HVY RAIN ARE AS WELL. WHILE IT DOES APPEAR THERE
COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING, THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES ATTM.
THE CDFNT WILL SLOWLY WORK EWD TODAY THRU THIS EVE AND PRECIP CHCS
WILL INCREASE FRO W TO E.
GUID TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AND WERE GENLY FOLLOWED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE CDFNT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACRS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL
START WITH LIKELY POPS ERLY AND TAPER TO CHC BY THE END OF THE PD.
PRECIP SHUD BE WINDING DOWN FROM NW TO SE BY DAYBREAK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5-WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAK TROUGHING, ZONAL-ISH FLOW, ACROSS THE
REGION AT THE START OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO
TRANSITION TO RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND BUT THEN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
INTO ANOTHER BOUT OF FAST ZONAL FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD...MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED AS THIS OCCURS.
THURSDAY...POOR MANS ENSEMBLE SHOWS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY
MOVING THROUGH AS THE BERMUDA RIDGING STARTS GETTING AMPED UP. THE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SLOWLY LIMPING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD SLOW THE FRONTS EXIT FURTHER SO WE CONTINUE
WITH THE CHANCE POPS, SLOWLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES A BIT OF A QUESTION TOO, MAINLY WEST OF I-95. AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE IS SOME WEAK CAA TAKING PLACE BUT SURFACE
WINDS LOOK TO BE MORE WESTERLY FOR A TIME. THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
WOULD HELP TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES BUT
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THEN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED AND ULTIMATELY KEEP TEMPERATURES TEMPERED DOWN A BIT.
NOT TOO CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME WITH HIGHS TOMORROW BUT DID UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE BY A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST GIVEN THE ABOVE
SCENARIO.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY AND WINDS BACK AROUND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. MUCH
LIKE OVER THE PAST WEEKEND WE WILL STILL HAVE THE WEAK LINGERING
TROUGH NEARBY WITH A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR INTERIOR AREAS AND BETTER HEATING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN ON
THURSDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW OCCURRING.
SATURDAY - TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND
AS THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS RIDGING BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL HAVE SHIFTED WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION PUTTING US IN THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME RING OF
FIRE FLOW REGIME. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND CONVECTION ARE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON SO WE CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING EACH DAY AS HEIGHTS RISE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED BACK INTO THE REGION.
THERE LOOK TO BE A COUPLE DAYS WHERE WE COULD EXCEED 90F.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES AND MANY ARE MVFR AS A
RESULT, WHILE SOME REMAIN VFR. EXPECT THE OVERALL TREND TO BE
DOWNWARD TO MVFR AND IFR THRU THE MRNG HOURS. THEN THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURG THE ERLY AFTN AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING CDFNT FROM THE W.
THE CDFNT WILL ARRIVE LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE AND BRING SHRA/TSRA. SOME
OF THE RAIN CUD BE HEAVY AND THERE COULD BE A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR
WITH THE FRONT. SOME SHOWERS WILL THEN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE BEYOND THAT EVEN AFTER THE RAIN ENDS.
A GENL S WIND IS EXPECTED, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS, PSBLY A BIT
HIGHER DURG THE AFTN AND OF COURSE HIGHER IN ANY TSRA.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PDS
WITH A GENL S FLOW AHEAD OF A CDFNT THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE. SHWRS AND TSRA
ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE CFP.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND THEN
VEER TOWARDS SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL DECREASE TO
AROUND 2-3 FEET BY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT REMAINS
WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCAL FLOODING AS THE PW VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES.
AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES, THE FLOW IS GENERALLY PARALLEL TO IT WHICH
INTRODUCES THE RISK FOR TRAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS, AND ANY TRAINING OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL ENHANCE
THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT. THE ARRIVAL OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
FRONT MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ALLOW FOR MORE
FOCUSED DOWNPOURS. THIS LOOKS TO INITIALLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY, THEN IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING
THE EVENING. THE 1-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH VALUES AT OR LESS THAN 2.00
INCHES. THESE SIMILAR AREAS ON THE 3-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAVE
VALUES BETWEEN ABOUT 2.00 AND 2.50 INCHES. IT IS THESE LOCATIONS AND
THE MORE URBANIZED SPOTS THAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT BEING ISSUED ATTM DUE TO SOME QUESTION ON
HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS /AREAL COVERAGE/ AND WHERE IF BECOMES FOCUSED
THE LONGEST. A MENTION HOWEVER REMAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
MARINE...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
403 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AND
CREEP THROUGH ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN ON FRIDAY
AND REMAIN NEARBY HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM LOOKS TO REACH OUR REGION BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LTST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE PRECIP WELL BACK IN WRN PA MOVG GENLY
NEWD. VERY LITTLE EWD PROGRESSION WAS NOTED. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING THINGS WELL. PRECIP REALLY DOESN`T ARRIVE IN OUR CWA UNTIL
THE LATER MRNG HOURS WITH THE FRONT DURG THE LATE AFTN INTO THE EVEN
HRS.
A S/WV WILL ENHANCE UVV, BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING IS N AND W AND
BEST CHCS FOR HVY RAIN ARE AS WELL. WHILE IT DOES APPEAR THERE
COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING, THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES ATTM.
THE CDFNT WILL SLOWLY WORK EWD TODAY THRU THIS EVE AND PRECIP CHCS
WILL INCREASE FRO W TO E.
GUID TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AND WERE GENLY FOLLOWED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE CDFNT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACRS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL
START WITH LIKELY POPS ERLY AND TAPER TO CHC BY THE END OF THE PD.
PRECIP SHUD BE WINDING DOWN FROM NW TO SE BY DAYBREAK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5-WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAK TROUGHING, ZONAL-ISH FLOW, ACROSS THE
REGION AT THE START OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO
TRANSITION TO RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND BUT THEN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
INTO ANOTHER BOUT OF FAST ZONAL FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD...MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED AS THIS OCCURS.
THURSDAY...POOR MANS ENSEMBLE SHOWS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY
MOVING THROUGH AS THE BERMUDA RIDGING STARTS GETTING AMPED UP. THE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SLOWLY LIMPING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD SLOW THE FRONTS EXIT FURTHER SO WE CONTINUE
WITH THE CHANCE POPS, SLOWLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES A BIT OF A QUESTION TOO, MAINLY WEST OF I-95. AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE IS SOME WEAK CAA TAKING PLACE BUT SURFACE
WINDS LOOK TO BE MORE WESTERLY FOR A TIME. THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
WOULD HELP TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES BUT
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THEN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED AND ULTIMATELY KEEP TEMPERATURES TEMPERED DOWN A BIT.
NOT TOO CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME WITH HIGHS TOMORROW BUT DID UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE BY A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST GIVEN THE ABOVE
SCENARIO.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY AND WINDS BACK AROUND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. MUCH
LIKE OVER THE PAST WEEKEND WE WILL STILL HAVE THE WEAK LINGERING
TROUGH NEARBY WITH A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR INTERIOR AREAS AND BETTER HEATING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN ON
THURSDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW OCCURRING.
SATURDAY - TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND
AS THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS RIDGING BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL HAVE SHIFTED WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION PUTTING US IN THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME RING OF
FIRE FLOW REGIME. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND CONVECTION ARE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON SO WE CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING EACH DAY AS HEIGHTS RISE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED BACK INTO THE REGION.
THERE LOOK TO BE A COUPLE DAYS WHERE WE COULD EXCEED 90F.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES AND MANY ARE MVFR AS A
RESULT, WHILE SOME REMAIN VFR. EXPECT THE OVERALL TREND TO BE
DOWNWARD TO MVFR THRU THE MRNG HOURS. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
IFR AS WELL. THEN THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURG
THE ERLY AFTN AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING CDFNT FROM THE W.
THE CDFNT WILL ARRIVE LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE AND BRING SHRA/TSRA. SOME
OF THE RAIN CUD BE HEAVY AND THERE COULD BE A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR
WITH THE FRONT. SOME SHOWERS WILL THEN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE BEYOND THAT EVEN AFTER THE RAIN ENDS.
A GENL S WIND IS EXPECTED, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS, PSBLY A BIT
HIGHER DURG THE AFTN AND OF COURSE HIGHER IN ANY TSRA.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PDS
WITH A GENL S FLOW AHEAD OF A CDFNT THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE. SHWRS AND TSRA
ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE CFP.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND THEN
VEER TOWARDS SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL DECREASE TO
AROUND 2-3 FEET BY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT REMAINS
WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCAL FLOODING AS THE PW VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES.
AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES, THE FLOW IS GENERALLY PARALLEL TO IT WHICH
INTRODUCES THE RISK FOR TRAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS, AND ANY TRAINING OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL ENHANCE
THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT. THE ARRIVAL OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
FRONT MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ALLOW FOR MORE
FOCUSED DOWNPOURS. THIS LOOKS TO INITIALLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY, THEN IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING
THE EVENING. THE 1-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH VALUES AT OR LESS THAN 2.00
INCHES. THESE SIMILAR AREAS ON THE 3-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAVE
VALUES BETWEEN ABOUT 2.00 AND 2.50 INCHES. IT IS THESE LOCATIONS AND
THE MORE URBANIZED SPOTS THAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT BEING ISSUED ATTM DUE TO SOME QUESTION ON
HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS /AREAL COVERAGE/ AND WHERE IF BECOMES FOCUSED
THE LONGEST. A MENTION HOWEVER REMAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
MARINE...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
HYDROLOGY...GORSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1214 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG IT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL ARRIVE NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED PRECIP WELL BACK IN WRN PA AND
MOVING NEWD, WITH LITTLE PROGRESS IN OUR DIRECTION OVERALL. THE
HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS WELL AND KEEPS THE PRECIP PRETTY
MUCH IN THE SAME AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT SAID, HAVE REMOVED ALL
POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ITS POSSIBLE WITH DEW POINTS COMING
UP THERE COULD BE SOME ECHOES FORMING AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE, SO
DIDN`T WANT TO TAKE THE PRECIP OUT TOO FAR IN ADVANCE, BUT OVERALL
POPS SHOULD BE QUITE LOW THRU DAY BREAK.
THE GFS AND CAN GGEM WERE VERIFYING THE BEST AS TO WHERE WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS AND ALSO THE GEOGRAPHIC
EXTENT. ALSO ECHOES HAVE BEEN VERIFYING SE OF THE COSPA AND WITH
THE LATEST RUC RUNS A BIT WETTER EAST AND NO RIDGING TO STOP IT,
WE KEPT THE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THRU THE NIGHT WEST.
CWA HAS BEEN BENEFITING FROM LOWER DEW POINTS AND TEMP ERRORS
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE BEEN TOO WARM, SO WE NUDGED BOTH TEMPS
AND DEWS DOWNWARD. MIXING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS HAS LESSENED
AND WE HAVE NUDGED SPEEDS DOWNWARD FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND
KEPT SIMILAR SPEEDS OVERNIGHT.
FOR TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE WHILE A SFC
TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE
NW. THE RESULTING PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT SLY FLOW
OVER THE AREA. THIS PLUS SW FLOW ABOVE THE SFC WILL BRING
INCREASING MOIST AIR IN TO THE REGION. CLOUDINESS WILL BE
INCREASING OVERNIGHT INCLUDING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME
FOG AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO CLEAR-CUT FORCING FOR UVV...WE
HAVE MAINTAINED A CHC OR SLGT CHC POP FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS N/W OF PHL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE SFC TROF AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO PA ON WED
AND A SHRTWV TROF ALOFT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE W AND SW. THE
SHRTWV WILL ENHANCE UVV...ALTHO THE BEST FORCING SEEMS TO BE TO OUR
N AND NW. EVEN SO THERE WILL BE A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH
PWS FCST TO BE OVER 2 INCHES. IN SPITE OF INCREASING CLOUDS...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEATING TO PRODUCE INSTBY FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY WITH POPS INCREASING WEST TO EAST. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND SOME
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS WILL BE MOVING SW TO
NE AND IF TRAINING OCCURS THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
HOWEVER ATTM WE BELIEVE THE FLOODING THREAT IS NOT WIDESPREAD OR
ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A FF WATCH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE SITN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK MEAN H5 TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE TROUGH GETS KICKED TO THE EAST SATURDAY ALLOWING H5 RIDGING TO
TAKE PLACE ACROSS OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGING PERSISTS
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SIGNS BEYOND THE LONG
TERM THAT THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES ALOFT TO
COME CLOSE TO OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FROM THU INTO SAT...THEN READINGS
WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S MON AND APPROACH 90 (OR EXCEED IN THE METRO
AREAS) NEXT TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHC WILL BE TIED TO TRANSIENT SHORT WAVES AND WEAK
FRONTS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS POOR
AT BEST BY THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...SO THE WPC POPS WERE USED IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE BEST CHC FOR PCPN ARE SAT/SUN ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WRN AREAS AND AGAIN NEXT TUE...MOSTLY WRN AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
00Z TAFS CONTINUE THE IDEA OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FORMING
OVERNIGHT AND WE INTRODUCED TSTMS LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD.
FOR THIS EVENING VFR WITH POSSIBLY SOME LEFTOVER CUMULUS CLOUDS
AND THEN SOME CIRRUS ABOVE IT. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 5
TO 10 KTS.
OVERNIGHT WE ARE FORECASTING MVFR (IFR VSBY AT KMIV) CIGS AND
VSBYS TO DEVELOP. WE ARE SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT THE CIGS
FORMING THAN THE VSBYS. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND ABOVE THE
DEVELOPING INVERSION, BUT NEAR THE SURFACE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, IMPROVING, HIGHER MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY. WE ARE EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS THEN TO START THE AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WINDS AROUND
10 KTS. NO DISCERNIBLE SEA BREEZE FRONT IS EXPECTED. TSTMS WERE
BROUGHT IN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE
AT OUR TERMINALS DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING. STRONGER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
THU THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR WITH ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
FAIRLY QUIET CONDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NJ/DE COASTAL
WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...OR AT LEAST NO
SCA FLAGS ARE EXPECTED ATTM. SLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING
SOME TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW
BUT CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS WED AFTN AND
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL
TEND TO HAVE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL AS THE USUAL LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS CAN
BE EXPECTED AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT REMAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCAL FLOODING AS THE PW
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES.
AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES, THE FLOW IS GENERALLY PARALLEL TO IT WHICH
INTRODUCES THE RISK FOR TRAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS, AND ANY TRAINING OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL ENHANCE
THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT. THE ARRIVAL OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
FRONT MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ALLOW FOR MORE
FOCUSED DOWNPOURS. THIS LOOKS TO INITIALLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY, THEN IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING
THE EVENING. THE 1-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH VALUES AT OR LESS THAN 2.00
INCHES. THESE SIMILAR AREAS ON THE 3-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAVE
VALUES BETWEEN ABOUT 2.00 AND 2.50 INCHES. IT IS THESE LOCATIONS AND
THE MORE URBANIZED SPOTS THAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT BEING ISSUED ATTM DUE TO SOME QUESTION ON
HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS /AREAL COVERAGE/ AND WHERE IF BECOMES FOCUSED
THE LONGEST. A MENTION HOWEVER REMAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GIGI/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...AMC/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
626 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2014
.Near Term [Rest of Today]...
A convective cluster has developed to the west of our area in the
past 2-3 hours along a low-level convergence zone that coincides
with a noticeable thetae and dewpoint gradient. At 10Z, the
thunderstorms on the leading edge of the developing cold pool were
less than 50 miles from western Walton County, with additional
scattered thunderstorm development occurring ahead of that. EVX
radar has shown some degree of organization with these storms,
with about 30-40 knots of rear-to-front flow in the mid levels of
the atmosphere, impinging on the newly formed line of storms.
Meanwhile, the latest RAP analysis shows about 1500-2500 j/kg of
MLCAPE ahead of the convective cluster in our Florida zones with
very little CINH and an abundance of low-level moisture.
Therefore, we expect the thunderstorms to be organized in clusters
or line segments and progress across the southern part of our
forecast area this morning - generally along and to the south of
the low-level thetae gradient in the more unstable air mass. The
surface to mid-level delta thetae values are quite high in the
same area per RAP analysis (25-30K), which suggests an environment
somewhat favorable for strong downbursts. Given the aforementioned
environment, elevated radar velocities on KEVX, and observed gusts
upstream in the 30-40 knot range already, there is some potential
for a few severe storms this morning. Damaging wind gusts would be
the main threat. Most of the gusts with stronger storms should be
in the 30-40 knot range, but we can`t rule out some sporadic
instances of higher gusts and/or observed damage. PoPs have been
increased into the 60-80% range in most of our Florida zones ahead
of the approaching storms.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] A cluster of thunderstorms should move from
west to east across portions of the area this morning, especially
in the Florida Panhandle. This means storms would be most likely
to affect ECP and TLH, and to a lesser extent VLD. The TLH and ECP
TAFs will be amended to indicate prevailing +TSRA with gusty
winds in the 30-40 knot range with the latest expected timing.
Otherwise, we will continue to indicate the redevelopment of
scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening with a longer
period of VCTS. Outside of thunderstorms, VFR should prevail.
&&
.Prev Discussion [327 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
Not an easy forecast for the short term as a subtle ridge in the low
to mid-levels will influence precipitation and temperatures through
the short term. Coverage will be highly dependent on sporadic
regions of mid-level dry air rotating around the ridge in the
Southern GoM. This is evident in soundings as TBW had PWATs around
1.4in while TLH came out near 1.75in on the 24/12z and 25/00z
RAOBs. For the forecast, went mostly with the MAV for PoPs and
temps on Thursday, and the MET/Euro on Friday when more moisture will
be available for afternoon convection. This will lead to near
climatology PoPs on Thursday, and just at-or-above climatology on
Friday. Temperatures will be dependent on timing of convection and
any cloud debris generated from offshore convection. Expecting mid
90s for most locations, except near Dothan on Thursday (low 90s),
and low 90s on Friday as a result of slightly higher PoPs.
.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
Deep layer ridging and afternoon seabreeze convection will dominate
the extended range forecast. Afternoon highs will climb into the
middle to upper 90s each day.
.Marine...
A fairly typical summertime pattern will result in light winds and
low seas outside of convection throughout the next several days.
.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected.
.Hydrology...
Rainfall totals will average 1 to 2 inches through the next 7 days
with isolated higher amounts. With rivers below bank full stage,
this rainfall is not expected to cause significant rises on area
rivers.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 94 74 94 74 93 / 70 30 40 30 50
Panama City 88 77 89 77 90 / 80 20 40 30 40
Dothan 93 73 91 72 93 / 40 30 40 30 40
Albany 95 74 94 72 94 / 30 30 40 30 30
Valdosta 97 73 95 72 92 / 40 30 40 30 40
Cross City 93 76 93 74 91 / 50 20 40 30 40
Apalachicola 89 78 89 76 89 / 80 20 30 30 40
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...WESTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
145 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO FIRE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. EAST IDAHO ALREADY
UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE AT OR ABOVE 500 ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE REGION ALONG WITH NEGATIVE LIFTEDS. 12Z NAM IN LINE WITH
LATEST HRRR IN INITIAL PUSH OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOLLOWED BY
A BREAK UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE AXIS REACHES WESTERN IDAHO.
A FEW ISOLATED CELLS STILL POSSIBLE SOUTHERN/EASTERN HIGHLANDS BUT
MUCH OF REST OF FORECAST AREA REMAINS GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HAVE PUSHED POPS UP IN THE WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT INSTABILITY NOT IMPRESSIVE SO LEFT THUNDER
OUT OF FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY STRENGTHENS AND
LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS BEHIND FRONT ENOUGH TO WARRANT LAKE WIND ADVISORY
STARTING EARLY IN THE DAY. MODELS AGREE ON WET DAY FOR THURSDAY AS
MAIN SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES THROUGH PACNW DURING THE DAY AND LIFT
ACROSS IDAHO OVERNIGHT. REMNANTS OF SHORTWAVE LINGER INTO FRIDAY
BUT MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE. THUS EXPECT WEAK CONVECTION TO BE
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES IN REGIONS OF
BEST INSTABILITY CLOSEST TO SHORTWAVE AXIS. MORE ZONAL FLOW SHOULD
FAVOR BREEZIER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWING
CONFIDENT LAKE WIND CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. EAST IDAHO WEAKLY
CYCLONIC IN BASE OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY BUT FLOW ALOFT MUCH DRIER. HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY TO BETTER FIT GUIDANCE BLEND AND CLEARER/DRIER TREND.
UPPER RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR WARMER AND CONTINUED DRY FORECAST. RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS EAST IDAHO WEDNESDAY...A TREND SHARED BY BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR
NOW PENDING CONTINUED CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MED RANGE MODELS AND
UPWARD TREND IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. DMH
&&
.AVIATION...MORNING GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED APPROACH OF FRONT BY ABOUT 4
HOURS...SO HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF MORNING -TSRA AT KSUN.
OTHERWISE...-TSRA STILL EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE OTHER
AIRDROMES WITH GOOD CAPE AND LIFTED INDICES STAYING FROM KPIH
EASTWARD. THUS DONT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
-TSRA ACTIVITY AT KBYI AND KSUN PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN 26/09Z AND 26/12Z. -TSRA MAY START AT KPIH AND ESPECIALLY
KIDA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT HAVE MAXED OUT LINES FOR THOSE
TAFS. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT KBYI DURING THE MORNING...BUT
LITTLE CROSSWIND COMPONENT. MESSICK
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MODERATELY STRONG FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS THU WITH STRONG WIND BEHIND IT WITH ENOUGH UNSTABLE
AIR TO GENERATE A GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOT
ONLY FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT ALSO IN THE MORNING. ENOUGH MOISTURE
ARRIVING WITH THE FRONT THAT HAINES INDEX BOTTOMS OUT AT 2 OR 3 AND
STAYS THERE FOR THU AND FRI. WITH THE SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASED MOISTURE...DONT EXPECT HUMIDITY TO BE A FACTOR DURING
THAT TIME EITHER. BY THE WEEKEND...THE STORM TRACK WILL SHIFT
FARTHER NORTH AND A WARMING AND DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MESSICK
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MDT THURSDAY IDZ021.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
954 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
824 PM CDT
ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...FORTUNATELY THIS
AFTERNOONS CONVECTION WAS EVEN FURTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST. THE BIGGER
CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING IS ON THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS ALREADY
BEGUN TO MOVE INLAND. MANY LOCATIONS OF LAKE SHORE DRIVE HAVE
ALREADY OBSERVED VISBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER
MILE...AND BASED ON THE WIND FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN ADDTL POINTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL LIKELY DIP DOWN
TOWARDS ONE QUARTER MILE TONIGHT. DESPITE THE WEAK SFC RIDGE
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND WINDS EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY...DENSE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR THE LAKESHORE
LOCATIONS UNTIL JUST AFT DAYBREAK FRI. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FAR
EASTERN LAKE COUNTY IL COULD CONTINUE TO SEE DENSE FOG THRU
MIDDAY.
FURTHER INLAND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING VISIBILIITES DIP TO ARND
ONE HALF MILE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL SLOWLY COOL TO
AROUND 60 TO THE LOW 60S. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME WEAK MID-LVL
VORTICITY PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWFA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING THE CURRENT ISOLATED
CONVECTION FROM IOWA EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH
INTO THE CWFA.
BEACHLER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
306 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...FOG AND STRATUS TRENDS...AND WITH
WARMING TEMPS.
RELATIVELY QUIET AFTERNOON AS CURRENTLY NO PRECIP ACROSS THE
CWA...AND WHILE FOG STRATUS HOLD RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. STRATUS FROM LAST NIGHT WAS SLOW TO DIMINISH
TODAY...SLOWLY ERODED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRATUS...STABLE CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT THIS TIME WITH LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTING A DECENT AMOUNT OF CIN STILL IN PLACE.
THESE STABLE CONDITIONS CAN BE NOTED WITH LITTLE OR NO DIURNAL CU
ON SATELLITE. WHERE THERE IS CU DEVELOPMENT IS RIGHT ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF A LINGERING BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM JUST SOUTH OF
THE QUAD CITIES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BLOOMINGTON AREA...AND THEN
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
POOL IN THE UPPER 60S RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WITH WEAK MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL
WEAK SUPPORT PER APPROACHING WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE IN THE PRESENCE
OF THIS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS AIDING IN THIS CU DEVELOPMENT AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT CAN BE
NOTED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FAIRBURY TO GIBSON CITY ILLINOIS AREA.
ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALONG THIS LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WITH STEERING FLOW...ALTHOUGH RATHER WEAK...TAKING
ANY DEVELOPMENT EAST INTO THE FAR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA. WITH
COVERAGE LIKELY REMAINING ISOLATED AND BRIEF...DID REDUCE POPS AND
KEPT THEM CONFINED TO THESE AREAS. WEAK FORCING AND EVEN WEAKER
SHEAR WILL RESULT IN NO ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY SEVERE
WEATHER NOT LIKELY. DECENT MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE COULD RESULT IN
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. BEST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR FURTHER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT DOES REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA.
DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN
FOR THE SAME GENERAL AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON TO LINGER AND MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIFTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH
IOWA INTO WISCONSIN POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH WAA WING.
MARINE FOG AND STRATUS CAN BE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...AND WITH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF IT GONE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. DESPITE SOME
FURTHER EROSION ON THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS/FOG...THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SIMILAR SITUATION TO UNFOLD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THIS
MOISTURE MOVING BACK INLAND...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS QUICK THIS
EVENING WITH WEAKER FLOW IN PLACE. MORE CONFIDENT WITH THE STRATUS
MOVING BACK INLAND...BUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO THE EXTENT OF
THE DENSE FOG. COULD SEE IT BEING MORE STRATUS DOMINATED WITH
AREAS OF FOG AND ONLY PATCHY DENSE FOG OBSERVED. THE MORE DENSE
FOG SHOULD STAY CLOSER TO THE LAKE...BUT WITH FOG STILL LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
RISING HEIGHTS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH RIDGE AXIS
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MOISTURE/TEMP ADVECTION RAMPING
UP. LIFTING BOUNDARY AS WELL AS SOME WEAKER ENERGY DRAWING CLOSE
TO THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PRIMARILY REMAINING CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. OVERALL COVERAGE/DURATION SHOULD BE
LOW...WITH ONLY BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECTED. LIMITED COVERAGE
TO THIS PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WARM DAY WITH
MID TO UPPER 80S LIKELY.
THE WEEKEND WILL OBSERVE FURTHER WARMING CONDITIONS WITH FURTHER
MOISTURE ADVECTION BRINGING DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 BACK TO THE CWA.
SIMILAR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH
INCREASING FLOW/ENERGY ALOFT FROM THE WEST. BETTER SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND LOWER LEVEL FOCUS ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WITH
THIS BETTER FOCUS DID INCREASE TO HIGHER CHANCE POPS. DESPITE
WEAKER FLOW REMAINING...THIS BETTER FOCUS IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS COULD PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO
REMAINING A POSSIBILITY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LOWER IFR VSBY ALSO POSSIBLE
LATE.
* SMALL CHANCE FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO SHIFT THE WINDS EASTERLY AT
ORD LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE TERMINALS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT THE EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OVER LAND...IS ALLOWING THE
LOW CIGS AND FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO BEGIN TO
SHIFT INLAND ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT THIS CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INLAND WITH SUNSET THIS
EVENING...AND SHOULD OVERSPREAD KORD AND KMDW BY 02 UTC THIS
EVENING. THEREFORE...CIGS WILL AGAIN DROP DOWN INTO THE 4-500 FOOT
RANGE AND VSBYS WILL ALSO LIKELY FALL TO OR BELOW 2SM THROUGH THE
EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR INLAND THIS LOW
CLOUD COVER WITH PENETRATE INLAND TONIGHT...AS A RESULT OF THIS I
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF LOWER CIGS OUT OF THE KDPA AND
KRFD TAFS AT THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT IMPROVEMENTS TO THESE CIGS
AND VSBYS SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUICK FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW
STUFF TO SHIFT FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS BETTER CHANCES WILL REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE MAIN TERMINALS LATER IN THE DAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION. A LAKE BREEZE LOOKS TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY IMPACTING LAKE COUNTY ILLINOIS
AND NORTHERN COOK COUNTY. THIS BOUNDARY COULD IMPACT KORD LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...AND AS SUCH...COULD ALLOW THE WINDS AT KORD TO SHIFT
BACK OUT OF THE EAST FOR A PERIOD.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM/HIGH WITH CIG/VSBY TRENDS TONIGHT.
* LOW WITH LAKE BREEZE IMPACTING ORD LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* LOW WITH ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES NEAR THE TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* HIGH ON ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND MVFR OR LOWER CIGS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
230 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IS SPRAWLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA.
SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH FLOW WILL INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...TOPPING OUT IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING UP FRESH 70
DEGREE DEWPOINTS OVER THE STILL COOL WATERS OF THE LAKE AND COULD
PROLONG THE FOG THREAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SPREAD THE AREAS
OF FOG BACK TO THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD BY
MIDWEEK.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 PM FRIDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
855 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 855 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
Forecast is doing well this evening and main update is to remove
evening period with isolated showers and thunderstorms ending at
dusk, similar to past couple of evenings. Patchy fog should develop
again after midnight as temperatures settle toward dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s. Though not expecting the widespread dense fog
over the northeast counties that occurred early this morning.
Latest HRRR model run shows low clouds below 1k ft and dense fog
staying closer to Lake MI in northeast IL by Chicago metro tonight
due to light southeast winds instead of northeast winds last
night. Winds to remain light to calm tonight with frontal boundary
lingering over central IL.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 650 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
Included VCSH at BMI til sunset otherwise scattered to locally
broken cumulus clouds 4.5-5k ft to dissipate at sunset as well
leaving some cirrus clouds around tonight. Forecast concern is if
fog will develop again overight. Bufkit crossover temperatures not
as likely reached overnight as last night but still show some fog
development from 08Z-13Z and will have MVFR vsbys starting between
06Z-08Z and lifting around 14Z. Low clouds and locally dense fog
over Lake MI projected by HRRR model to stay in ne IL overnight as
low level flow is more se tonight instead of ne like last night.
Isolated convection to develop again during Fri afternoon until
sunset and maybe a little more widespread than today especially sw
of I-74 in tropical airmass. Included VCTS starting between 20Z-22Z
(latest at BMI and CMI) and going until sunset. SE winds around 5
kts tonight become SSE 8-13 kts after 14Z/9 am Fri.
07
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday: Typical summer-like weather
expected across central and southeast Illinois over the next
couple of days. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms,
diurnally driven, are expected each afternoon and evening. There
is little in the way of focus for organized convection aside from
weak surface boundaries. Peak diurnal instability should be around
1500 j/kg, but bulk shear values will average less than 20 kts
(sometimes much less). High temperatures will climb well into the
80s.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday: A couple stronger waves are
forecast to arrive during the period, currently moving through
Sunday, and again Monday into Tuesday. These waves, and associated
stronger wind fields, will be accompanied by a more organized risk
of showers and thunderstorms. Can`t rule out a severe risk with
these waves, but not enough confidence in the details to hit too
hard on the threat right now. Temperatures will cool a bit behind
the second wave as upper heights fall and flow turns northwesterly,
with daytime highs falling to around 80 degrees by midweek.
BAK
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
843 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
824 PM CDT
ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...FORTUNATELY THIS
AFTERNOONS CONVECTION WAS EVEN FURTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST. THE BIGGER
CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING IS ON THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS ALREADY
BEGUN TO MOVE INLAND. MANY LOCATIONS OF LAKE SHORE DRIVE HAVE
ALREADY OBSERVED VISBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER
MILE...AND BASED ON THE WIND FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN ADDTL POINTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL LIKELY DIP DOWN
TOWARDS ONE QUARTER MILE TONIGHT. DESPITE THE WEAK SFC RIDGE
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND WINDS EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY...DENSE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR THE LAKESHORE
LOCATIONS UNTIL JUST AFT DAYBREAK FRI. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FAR
EASTERN LAKE COUNTY IL COULD CONTINUE TO SEE DENSE FOG THRU
MIDDAY.
FURTHER INLAND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING VISIBILIITES DIP TO ARND
ONE HALF MILE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL SLOWLY COOL TO
AROUND 60 TO THE LOW 60S. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME WEAK MID-LVL
VORTICITY PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWFA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING THE CURRENT ISOLATED
CONVECTION FROM IOWA EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH
INTO THE CWFA.
BEACHLER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
306 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...FOG AND STRATUS TRENDS...AND WITH
WARMING TEMPS.
RELATIVELY QUIET AFTERNOON AS CURRENTLY NO PRECIP ACROSS THE
CWA...AND WHILE FOG STRATUS HOLD RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. STRATUS FROM LAST NIGHT WAS SLOW TO DIMINISH
TODAY...SLOWLY ERODED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRATUS...STABLE CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT THIS TIME WITH LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTING A DECENT AMOUNT OF CIN STILL IN PLACE.
THESE STABLE CONDITIONS CAN BE NOTED WITH LITTLE OR NO DIURNAL CU
ON SATELLITE. WHERE THERE IS CU DEVELOPMENT IS RIGHT ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF A LINGERING BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM JUST SOUTH OF
THE QUAD CITIES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BLOOMINGTON AREA...AND THEN
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
POOL IN THE UPPER 60S RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WITH WEAK MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL
WEAK SUPPORT PER APPROACHING WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE IN THE PRESENCE
OF THIS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS AIDING IN THIS CU DEVELOPMENT AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT CAN BE
NOTED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FAIRBURY TO GIBSON CITY ILLINOIS AREA.
ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALONG THIS LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WITH STEERING FLOW...ALTHOUGH RATHER WEAK...TAKING
ANY DEVELOPMENT EAST INTO THE FAR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA. WITH
COVERAGE LIKELY REMAINING ISOLATED AND BRIEF...DID REDUCE POPS AND
KEPT THEM CONFINED TO THESE AREAS. WEAK FORCING AND EVEN WEAKER
SHEAR WILL RESULT IN NO ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY SEVERE
WEATHER NOT LIKELY. DECENT MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE COULD RESULT IN
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. BEST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR FURTHER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT DOES REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA.
DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN
FOR THE SAME GENERAL AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON TO LINGER AND MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIFTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH
IOWA INTO WISCONSIN POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH WAA WING.
MARINE FOG AND STRATUS CAN BE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...AND WITH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF IT GONE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. DESPITE SOME
FURTHER EROSION ON THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS/FOG...THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SIMILAR SITUATION TO UNFOLD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THIS
MOISTURE MOVING BACK INLAND...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS QUICK THIS
EVENING WITH WEAKER FLOW IN PLACE. MORE CONFIDENT WITH THE STRATUS
MOVING BACK INLAND...BUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO THE EXTENT OF
THE DENSE FOG. COULD SEE IT BEING MORE STRATUS DOMINATED WITH
AREAS OF FOG AND ONLY PATCHY DENSE FOG OBSERVED. THE MORE DENSE
FOG SHOULD STAY CLOSER TO THE LAKE...BUT WITH FOG STILL LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
RISING HEIGHTS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH RIDGE AXIS
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MOISTURE/TEMP ADVECTION RAMPING
UP. LIFTING BOUNDARY AS WELL AS SOME WEAKER ENERGY DRAWING CLOSE
TO THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PRIMARILY REMAINING CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. OVERALL COVERAGE/DURATION SHOULD BE
LOW...WITH ONLY BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECTED. LIMITED COVERAGE
TO THIS PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WARM DAY WITH
MID TO UPPER 80S LIKELY.
THE WEEKEND WILL OBSERVE FURTHER WARMING CONDITIONS WITH FURTHER
MOISTURE ADVECTION BRINGING DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 BACK TO THE CWA.
SIMILAR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH
INCREASING FLOW/ENERGY ALOFT FROM THE WEST. BETTER SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND LOWER LEVEL FOCUS ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WITH
THIS BETTER FOCUS DID INCREASE TO HIGHER CHANCE POPS. DESPITE
WEAKER FLOW REMAINING...THIS BETTER FOCUS IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS COULD PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO
REMAINING A POSSIBILITY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* LIFR CIGS PUSHING IN OFF THE LAKE THIS EVENING. LOWER IFR VSBY
LIKELY TO AGAIN ACCOMPANY THESE LOW CLOUDS.
* SMALL CHANCE FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO SHIFT THE WINDS EASTERLY AT
ORD LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE TERMINALS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT THE EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OVER LAND...IS ALLOWING THE
LOW CIGS AND FOG OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO BEGIN TO
SHIFT INLAND ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS. IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT THIS CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INLAND WITH SUNSET THIS
EVENING...AND SHOULD OVERSPREAD KORD AND KMDW BY 02 UTC THIS
EVENING. THEREFORE...CIGS WILL AGAIN DROP DOWN INTO THE 4-500 FOOT
RANGE AND VSBYS WILL ALSO LIKELY FALL TO OR BELOW 2SM THROUGH THE
EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR INLAND THIS LOW
CLOUD COVER WITH PENETRATE INLAND TONIGHT...AS A RESULT OF THIS I
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF LOWER CIGS OUT OF THE KDPA AND
KRFD TAFS AT THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT IMPROVEMENTS TO THESE CIGS
AND VSBYS SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUICK FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW
STUFF TO SHIFT FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS BETTER CHANCES WILL REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE MAIN TERMINALS LATER IN THE DAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION. A LAKE BREEZE LOOKS TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY IMPACTING LAKE COUNTY ILLINOIS
AND NORTHERN COOK COUNTY. THIS BOUNDARY COULD IMPACT KORD LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON...AND AS SUCH...COULD ALLOW THE WINDS AT KORD TO SHIFT
BACK OUT OF THE EAST FOR A PERIOD.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM ON CIG/VSBY TRENDS THIS EVENING.
* LOW WITH LAKE BREEZE IMPACTING ORD LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* LOW WITH ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES NEAR THE TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* HIGH ON ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND MVFR OR LOWER CIGS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
230 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IS SPRAWLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA.
SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH FLOW WILL INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...TOPPING OUT IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING UP FRESH 70
DEGREE DEWPOINTS OVER THE STILL COOL WATERS OF THE LAKE AND COULD
PROLONG THE FOG THREAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SPREAD THE AREAS
OF FOG BACK TO THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD BY
MIDWEEK.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 PM FRIDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
653 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday: Typical summer-like weather
expected across central and southeast Illinois over the next
couple of days. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms,
diurnally driven, are expected each afternoon and evening. There
is little in the way of focus for organized convection aside from
weak surface boundaries. Peak diurnal instability should be around
1500 j/kg, but bulk shear values will average less than 20 kts
(sometimes much less). High temperatures will climb well into the
80s.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday: A couple stronger waves are
forecast to arrive during the period, currently moving through
Sunday, and again Monday into Tuesday. These waves, and associated
stronger wind fields, will be accompanied by a more organized risk
of showers and thunderstorms. Can`t rule out a severe risk with
these waves, but not enough confidence in the details to hit too
hard on the threat right now. Temperatures will cool a bit behind
the second wave as upper heights fall and flow turns northwesterly,
with daytime highs falling to around 80 degrees by midweek.
BAK
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 650 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
Included VCSH at BMI til sunset otherwise scattered to locally
broken cumulus clouds 4.5-5k ft to dissipate at sunset as well
leaving some cirrus clouds around tonight. Forecast concern is if
fog will develop again overight. Bufkit crossover temperatures not
as likely reached overnight as last night but still show some fog
development from 08Z-13Z and will have MVFR vsbys starting between
06Z-08Z and lifting around 14Z. Low clouds and locally dense fog
over Lake MI projected by HRRR model to stay in ne IL overnight as
low level flow is more se tonight instead of ne like last night.
Isolated convection to develop again during Fri afternoon until
sunset and maybe a little more widespread than today especially sw
of I-74 in tropical airmass. Included VCTS starting between 20Z-22Z
(latest at BMI and CMI) and going until sunset. SE winds around 5
kts tonight become SSE 8-13 kts after 14Z/9 am Fri.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
241 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1128 AM CDT
MONITORING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME OF THEM TO BE STRONG.
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS MORNING...WITH
A RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT OF MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS STILL IN
PLACE. WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE MORNING FOG/STRATUS...WARMING HAS
ALLOWED FOR AN EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITHIN RAPIDLY DIMINISHING CIN OVER NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. FURTHER EROSION OF THIS STABLE LAYER/CIN IS
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY LIKELY IN PLACE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE
PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY IS CONCERNING ESPECIALLY AS AREAS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS BEGIN TO OBSERVE BETTER
LARGE SCALE LIFT...OUT AHEAD OF A STOUT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. BEST ASCENT WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE SITUATED FURTHER NORTH IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND
THIS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
NONETHELESS...SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT ON THE TAIL END OF THE WAVE
COINCIDING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
ANY STORMS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME...BEFORE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DIMINISH
INTO EARLY EVENING.
DESPITE WEAKER FORCING...EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35-40KT AND PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG
DEVELOPMENT AND EVEN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZE FLOODING REMAINING A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY STORMS AS A
MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE.
RODRIGUEZ
//PREV DISCUSSION...
330 AM CDT
AN IMPRESSIVELY LONG STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AND
OFFERS MULTIPLE CHALLENGES THIS MORNING. REOCCURRING LAKE FOG NEAR
THE SHORE IS THE FIRST ITEM OF CONCERN AND THEN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TODAY. THEN WE LOOK AHEAD THROUGH CONTINUED DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
QUANTIFYING POSSIBLE HOT AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS...WEBCAM IMAGERY...AND REPORTS ARE
INDICATING DENSE FOG MAKING A PUSH INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ONCE
AGAIN. VISIBILITY WAS ABOUT A BLOCK ON SOME WEBCAMS IN LAKE COUNTY
IL WHILE ABOUT FIVE CITY BLOCKS ALONG LAKE SHORE DRIVE AS OF 245 AM.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO FURTHER DETERIORATE ALONG THE COOK
COUNTY SHORE WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS NOW AT NEARSHORE
SITES PROVIDING A LONGER FETCH OF FOG FROM THE LAKE. SO WITH
EXPECTED WORSE CONDITIONS THAN ALREADY BEING OBSERVED FEEL A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NEAR THE LAKE IN NORTHEAST IL IS PRUDENT
WITH AN SPS FOR NORTHWEST IN. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY NEAR THE SHORE WITH ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED AND A
LAKE BREEZE PUSH MIDDAY.
A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IS SEEN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN PROGRESSING EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS HAS IN A WAY
BROKEN OFF FROM A LARGER LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CANADA. THIS IS ALREADY PROVIDING ASCENT AND 850-925MB
CONVERGENCE/FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN WI. CONTINUED
MID-UPPER 60S DEW POINTS OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF
1000-1700 J/KG BY LATE MORNING WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED. SO CANNOT DISAGREE WITH MOST
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE AND
HAVE ADAPTED THAT INTO THE FORECAST BASICALLY FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE HEART OF THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY DOES MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE
INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE MAXIMIZED AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ORIENTED
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST SHOULD EXIST OVER THE AREA AND ENHANCED BY
A LAKE BREEZE. SO THAT SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED
SCATTERED CONVECTION. THIS ALSO MAY OFFER ONCE AGAIN A SOURCE OF
POOLED HORIZONTAL VORTICITY LOOKING AT SOME OF THOSE TYPE OF
PARAMETERS...THOUGH SUCH PARAMETERS /LIKE VGP/ CAN VARY SO
SIGNIFICANTLY IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME AND SPACE CAN ONLY GLEAM SO
MUCH FROM THAT FURTHER THAN A COUPLE HOURS IN THE FORECAST. BUT
WITH ONCE AGAIN MODEST DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 600 J/KG PREDICTED BY
THE NAM...COULD BE SOME OUTFLOWS...LAKE BREEZE...AND ALREADY SOME
CONVERGENCE ALL INTERACTING...THIS CAN PROVIDE SOME EXTRA OOMPH
AND DURATION TO STORMS SUCH AS FUNNELS AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE
CHICAGO METRO SHOWED YESTERDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE A REAL CHALLENGE WITH A WARM STARTING POINT AND
YESTERDAY SAW READINGS OUTPERFORM GUIDANCE. LAST NIGHT UPSTREAM
RAOB AT MPX INDICATED ONCE AGAIN 925MB TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF
20C SUPPORTING MID-UPPER 80S HIGHS. BELIEVE THAT THE EARLY MORNING
FOG AND STRATUS OVER PARTS OF CHICAGO COMBINED WITH EARLIER
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP METRO SITES 5-10F DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. OUTLYING AREAS FROM ROCKFORD THROUGH PONTIAC AND
RENSSELAER SHOULD SEE SIMILAR HIGHS DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION AND ANY ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS. DENSE FOG MAY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AGAIN THIS EVENING
GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY JUST MAY HAVE THE LEAST AFTERNOON COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION YET WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED DOWN
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HESITATE TO SAY THAT GIVEN THE
PATTERN...AND ALSO TO FULLY FORECAST THAT...SO CONTINUE WITH THE LOW
CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY IN THE WEST. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND
INCREASING PWATS GRADUALLY START THURSDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE ON PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT IN
GENERAL THERE ARE SIGNS OF A LOW AMPLITUDE FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CORN BELT DURING FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. WITH SO MUCH DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS AND
UNSTABLE AIR PREDICTED FRIDAY FELT LIKE COULD NOT IMPROVE ON THE
CHANCES IN THE GOING FORECAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN AMPLIFICATION IN THE JET STREAM OVER THE U.S. CONTINUES TO BE
PREDICTED BY LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH A
STRONG UPPER JET FORECAST TO DAMPEN IT BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THROUGHOUT SATURDAY-MONDAY THE
THICKNESS/HEIGHTS/850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUE TO GO ABOVE A SMART GUIDANCE BLEND FOR
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE DAMPENING OF HEIGHTS AND THE
APPROACH OF A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARRANT
THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
* IFR CIGS/VSBY RETURNING LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN PLACE AT THE CHICAGO
TERMINALS WHILE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE FARTHER WEST
OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL. THERE IS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SKIRTS JUST TO OUR NORTH OVER WISCONSIN. GROWING CUMULUS IS NOW
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM ROUGHLY LSE THROUGH RFD TO CNI.
STORMS FORMING IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST...BUT MAY LOSE
SOME STEAM AS THEY NEAR THE LAKE AND MOVE OVER THE LAKE COOLED AIR.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING...EXPECT THE MARINE CIGS TO SPREAD BACK INLAND OVER THE
TERMINALS REDUCING VSBY AND CIGS BACK TO IFR.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR AGAIN TONIGHT...LOW-MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/TSRA DIRECTLY IMPACTING TERMINALS.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
239 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NOVA
SCOTIA SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC CONSOLIDATES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. DRIER AIR IS STARTING TO FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WHICH SHOULD HELP REDUCE THE COVERAGE
OF FOG ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE INTO THE EVENING. DENSE
FOG WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE
LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND LIKELY BECOME VARIABLE ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SPREADING DOWN THE LAKE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST INTO FRIDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT GOING INTO FRIDAY AND FAVOR A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BUT THE FLOW MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT THEY
BECOME ONSHORE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BUT THE STRONG WARM
ADVECTION WILL KEEP SHARP INVERSION IN PLACE SO SPEED INCREASE MAY
BE LIMITED. THE LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTENSIFY SUNDAY KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LAKE AND TURN WINDS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE STABLE LAYER WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS BUT OFFSHORE FLOW ON THE WEST AND SOUTH
SHORES WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONGER BREEZE STRETCHING A FEW MILES FROM
SHORE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A COOL FRONT
ACROSS THE LAKE TURNING WINDS WESTERLY.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 10 AM
THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1251 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1013 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014
Morning upper air analysis shows two short-waves of interest...one
over Wisconsin and another over eastern Oklahoma. Central Illinois
will remain between these two features today, with the Wisconsin
wave brushing by just to the north. Latest satellite imagery shows
sunny skies across the area: however, CU-rule suggests SCT-BKN
clouds developing this afternoon across the northern and eastern
zones. HRRR and RAP models indicate scattered convection
developing after 17z across mainly northern Illinois into central
and northern Indiana associated with the Wisconsin wave. Have
updated POPs to feature scattered wording along/north of I-74 this
afternoon, with a dry forecast along and southwest of a Rushville
to Shelbyville line.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1251 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014
1715z radar/satellite imagery shows scattered convection
developing along and northeast of a KDBQ...to KPNT...to KIND line
in association with a vigorous upper-level disturbance over
Wisconsin. High-res models suggest much of this convection will
remain northeast of the central Illinois terminals this afternoon
and evening: however, think it will come close enough to warrant
VCSH at both KBMI and KCMI through 02z. Any thunderstorms that
develop will be diurnal in nature and will rapidly dissipate
after sunset. Once Wisconsin wave tracks further east into the
Great Lakes, a frontal boundary currently draped across far
northern Illinois will sag southward tonight. Have introduced a
light E/NE wind at the I-74 terminals overnight as the front
arrives, with light/variable winds elsewhere. Precip chances
appear minimal as daytime instability is lost and upper
support wanes. Continued dry conditions are expected Thursday
morning, with a light E/SE wind.
Barnes
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 314 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT IN THE FORECAST YET AGAIN. A BIT OF A DRY DAY
FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT FOR
SOME SHOWERS, MAINLY TO THE NORTH AS ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE
MIDWEST NORTH OF ILX. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SHOWER, BUT WILL SEE
MORE DRY THAN WET FOR TODAY. ECMWF DROPPING THE SECOND WAVE
TONIGHT IN FAVOR OF A DRIER TOMORROW, GFS WEAKER WITH THE
REPRESENTATION ALOFT, BUT HOLDING ON TO SFC QPF... AND THE NAM
HOLDING ON TO THE QUICK SHORTWAVE AND A WET THURSDAY. THIS MUCH OF
A STRUGGLE IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS MUCH THE SAME TUNE. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK A TROF DIGGING IN
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS SETTING UP FOR A BIGGER PATTERN
SHIFT. SAME PATTERN SHIFT, THOUGH SIMILAR IN THE GFS AND THE NAM
TO THE END OF NAM`S RUN, HAS DIVERGENCE BTWN THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS SOLUTIONS. THOUGH THE DIFFERENCES MAY BE SUBTLE, THE IMPACT TO
ILX IS SIGNIFICANT. FORECAST ONCE AGAIN DOMINATED BY SMALL
POPS...THE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL INTO THE EXTENDED.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
NOT WILLING TO GIVE UP THE POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HOT AND
HUMID AIRMASS AND ANOTHER WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE
FA AND BRING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TS. BEST CHANCES TO THE
NORTH AND EAST, BUT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOT HANDLED WELL IN THE
SHORT TERM AT ALL FOR THE LAST WEEK AND DOES NOT TAKE MUCH IN THIS
AIRMASS. ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINS. ISSUE FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
WITH THE WAVE IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
ABSORBED THE SECONDARY WAVE INTO THE IMPULSE FOR TODAY, BUT THE
NAM KEEPS THEM SEPARATE. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IN WV SAT IMAGERY
BLURRING THE PICTURE BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE OVER MN/IA THIS MORNING.
POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW...NOT BRINGING THEM UP, NOR
DROPPING THEM. NEXT TWO RUNS WILL LIKELY SHAKE OUT SOME OF THAT
DETAIL.
LONG TERM... FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RIGHT NOW, CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH THERE IS DOUBT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
DEPENDING ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND
STRENGTH OF SOME WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC. SUNDAY, MODELS ARE
HINTING AT THE NEXT MAJOR STORM SYSTEM SPINNING UP AS THAT TROF
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND GOES TO A
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE
END OF THE WEEKEND. GFS IS BEGINNING TO SHOW DEEPENING OF THE SFC
LOW, BUT BOTH ECMWF AND LESSER SO THE GFS, ARE HAVING AN ISSUE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. AT THIS POINT, THE BULK OF THAT SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF ILX, AND WILL PROBABLY SEE CONTINUED STORMY
IMPACTS FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE...DEPENDING ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE WAVE ALOFT GETS.
SHOULD THE GFS HOLD OUT, THE IMPACTS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH A
STRONGER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STORMS FOR TUESDAY.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1104 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
330 AM CDT
AN IMPRESSIVELY LONG STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AND
OFFERS MULTIPLE CHALLENGES THIS MORNING. REOCCURRING LAKE FOG NEAR
THE SHORE IS THE FIRST ITEM OF CONCERN AND THEN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TODAY. THEN WE LOOK AHEAD THROUGH CONTINUED DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
QUANTIFYING POSSIBLE HOT AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS...WEBCAM IMAGERY...AND REPORTS ARE
INDICATING DENSE FOG MAKING A PUSH INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ONCE
AGAIN. VISIBILITY WAS ABOUT A BLOCK ON SOME WEBCAMS IN LAKE COUNTY
IL WHILE ABOUT FIVE CITY BLOCKS ALONG LAKE SHORE DRIVE AS OF 245 AM.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO FURTHER DETERIORATE ALONG THE COOK
COUNTY SHORE WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS NOW AT NEARSHORE
SITES PROVIDING A LONGER FETCH OF FOG FROM THE LAKE. SO WITH
EXPECTED WORSE CONDITIONS THAN ALREADY BEING OBSERVED FEEL A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NEAR THE LAKE IN NORTHEAST IL IS PRUDENT
WITH AN SPS FOR NORTHWEST IN. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY NEAR THE SHORE WITH ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED AND A
LAKE BREEZE PUSH MIDDAY.
A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IS SEEN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN PROGRESSING EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS HAS IN A WAY
BROKEN OFF FROM A LARGER LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CANADA. THIS IS ALREADY PROVIDING ASCENT AND 850-925MB
CONVERGENCE/FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN WI. CONTINUED
MID-UPPER 60S DEW POINTS OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF
1000-1700 J/KG BY LATE MORNING WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED. SO CANNOT DISAGREE WITH MOST
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE AND
HAVE ADAPTED THAT INTO THE FORECAST BASICALLY FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE HEART OF THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY DOES MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE
INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE MAXIMIZED AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ORIENTED
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST SHOULD EXIST OVER THE AREA AND ENHANCED BY
A LAKE BREEZE. SO THAT SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED
SCATTERED CONVECTION. THIS ALSO MAY OFFER ONCE AGAIN A SOURCE OF
POOLED HORIZONTAL VORTICITY LOOKING AT SOME OF THOSE TYPE OF
PARAMETERS...THOUGH SUCH PARAMETERS /LIKE VGP/ CAN VARY SO
SIGNIFICANTLY IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME AND SPACE CAN ONLY GLEAM SO
MUCH FROM THAT FURTHER THAN A COUPLE HOURS IN THE FORECAST. BUT
WITH ONCE AGAIN MODEST DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 600 J/KG PREDICTED BY
THE NAM...COULD BE SOME OUTFLOWS...LAKE BREEZE...AND ALREADY SOME
CONVERGENCE ALL INTERACTING...THIS CAN PROVIDE SOME EXTRA OOMPH
AND DURATION TO STORMS SUCH AS FUNNELS AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE
CHICAGO METRO SHOWED YESTERDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE A REAL CHALLENGE WITH A WARM STARTING POINT AND
YESTERDAY SAW READINGS OUTPERFORM GUIDANCE. LAST NIGHT UPSTREAM
RAOB AT MPX INDICATED ONCE AGAIN 925MB TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF
20C SUPPORTING MID-UPPER 80S HIGHS. BELIEVE THAT THE EARLY MORNING
FOG AND STRATUS OVER PARTS OF CHICAGO COMBINED WITH EARLIER
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP METRO SITES 5-10F DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. OUTLYING AREAS FROM ROCKFORD THROUGH PONTIAC AND
RENSSELAER SHOULD SEE SIMILAR HIGHS DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION AND ANY ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS. DENSE FOG MAY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AGAIN THIS EVENING
GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY JUST MAY HAVE THE LEAST AFTERNOON COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION YET WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED DOWN
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HESITATE TO SAY THAT GIVEN THE
PATTERN...AND ALSO TO FULLY FORECAST THAT...SO CONTINUE WITH THE LOW
CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY IN THE WEST. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND
INCREASING PWATS GRADUALLY START THURSDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE ON PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT IN
GENERAL THERE ARE SIGNS OF A LOW AMPLITUDE FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CORN BELT DURING FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. WITH SO MUCH DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS AND
UNSTABLE AIR PREDICTED FRIDAY FELT LIKE COULD NOT IMPROVE ON THE
CHANCES IN THE GOING FORECAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN AMPLIFICATION IN THE JET STREAM OVER THE U.S. CONTINUES TO BE
PREDICTED BY LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH A
STRONG UPPER JET FORECAST TO DAMPEN IT BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THROUGHOUT SATURDAY-MONDAY THE
THICKNESS/HEIGHTS/850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUE TO GO ABOVE A SMART GUIDANCE BLEND FOR
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE DAMPENING OF HEIGHTS AND THE
APPROACH OF A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARRANT
THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
* WIND SPEEDS WITH NELY-ELY WINDS TODAY.
* CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT.
KREIN/BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
CIGS/VIS HAVE DROPPED AS LOW AS 1/4SM FG AND OVC002 AS MARINE
LAYER SPREADS INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. CIRRUS HAS MOVED AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE FG/ST SPREADING
INLAND. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
AND HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC IN THE 12Z UPDATE...IN
KEEPING THE 1/4-1/2SM VIS PREVAILING THROUGH 15Z...THOUGH HAVE
TRIED TO INDICATE THE IMPROVING TREND IN THE 13-15Z TEMPO GROUPS
BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. ONE ASPECT OF THE FORECAST
THAT HAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS THE WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. WHILE
WIND DIRECTION IS SYNOPTICALLY NELY...ANTICIPATE A LAKE INFLUENCE
SURGE IN WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE VEERING A LITTLE MORE
ELY WITH A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY AND ANY
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY`S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE LATEST HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WOULD BE TO THE WEST OF THE CHICAGO METRO
TERMINALS...CLOSER TO RFD...GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...THIS IS ALSO
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WITH WINDS DECREASING BACK TO LGT/VRBL
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AND WITH THE RETURN OF LGT/VRBL WINDS WILL ALSO
LIKELY BE A RETURN OF IFR CONDITIONS DURG THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VIS DROPPING BACK TO IFR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POSSIBLY SHRA/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON.
KREIN/BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
315 AM CDT
DENSE CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING FOR THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE AND THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE SOUTH HALF AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS DOWN THE LAKE LATER TODAY THOUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THEN LAKE...ERODING
THE FROM FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...FINALLY SCOURING OUT THE WHOLE LAKE
ON THURSDAY. GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE LAKE INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER
THE OPEN WATERS AND DEVELOPING AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE LAKE. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A COMPLEX...MULTI-CENTERED TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SET
UP A RETURN TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY AND WINDS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25KT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 10 AM
THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1013 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1013 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014
Morning upper air analysis shows two short-waves of interest...one
over Wisconsin and another over eastern Oklahoma. Central Illinois
will remain between these two features today, with the Wisconsin
wave brushing by just to the north. Latest satellite imagery shows
sunny skies across the area: however, CU-rule suggests SCT-BKN
clouds developing this afternoon across the northern and eastern
zones. HRRR and RAP models indicate scattered convection
developing after 17z across mainly northern Illinois into central
and northern Indiana associated with the Wisconsin wave. Have
updated POPs to feature scattered wording along/north of I-74 this
afternoon, with a dry forecast along and southwest of a Rushville
to Shelbyville line.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 704 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014
Mostly clear skies across central and southeast Illinois this
morning with only isolated pockets of light fog around the region.
Scattered cloud cover expected to develop late in the morning with
cloud bases and coverage likely to remain in VFR category.
Isolated TSRA possible in the afternoon/evening but probability
too low for mention in TAFs. Cloud cover to decrease after 02z.
Winds WNW 4-8 kts until 02z...becoming E-NE around 05 kts.
Onton
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 314 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT IN THE FORECAST YET AGAIN. A BIT OF A DRY DAY
FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT FOR
SOME SHOWERS, MAINLY TO THE NORTH AS ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE
MIDWEST NORTH OF ILX. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SHOWER, BUT WILL SEE
MORE DRY THAN WET FOR TODAY. ECMWF DROPPING THE SECOND WAVE
TONIGHT IN FAVOR OF A DRIER TOMORROW, GFS WEAKER WITH THE
REPRESENTATION ALOFT, BUT HOLDING ON TO SFC QPF... AND THE NAM
HOLDING ON TO THE QUICK SHORTWAVE AND A WET THURSDAY. THIS MUCH OF
A STRUGGLE IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS MUCH THE SAME TUNE. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK A TROF DIGGING IN
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS SETTING UP FOR A BIGGER PATTERN
SHIFT. SAME PATTERN SHIFT, THOUGH SIMILAR IN THE GFS AND THE NAM
TO THE END OF NAM`S RUN, HAS DIVERGENCE BTWN THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS SOLUTIONS. THOUGH THE DIFFERENCES MAY BE SUBTLE, THE IMPACT TO
ILX IS SIGNIFICANT. FORECAST ONCE AGAIN DOMINATED BY SMALL
POPS...THE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL INTO THE EXTENDED.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
NOT WILLING TO GIVE UP THE POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HOT AND
HUMID AIRMASS AND ANOTHER WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE
FA AND BRING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TS. BEST CHANCES TO THE
NORTH AND EAST, BUT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOT HANDLED WELL IN THE
SHORT TERM AT ALL FOR THE LAST WEEK AND DOES NOT TAKE MUCH IN THIS
AIRMASS. ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINS. ISSUE FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
WITH THE WAVE IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
ABSORBED THE SECONDARY WAVE INTO THE IMPULSE FOR TODAY, BUT THE
NAM KEEPS THEM SEPARATE. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IN WV SAT IMAGERY
BLURRING THE PICTURE BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE OVER MN/IA THIS MORNING.
POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW...NOT BRINGING THEM UP, NOR
DROPPING THEM. NEXT TWO RUNS WILL LIKELY SHAKE OUT SOME OF THAT
DETAIL.
LONG TERM... FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RIGHT NOW, CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH THERE IS DOUBT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
DEPENDING ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND
STRENGTH OF SOME WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC. SUNDAY, MODELS ARE
HINTING AT THE NEXT MAJOR STORM SYSTEM SPINNING UP AS THAT TROF
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND GOES TO A
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE
END OF THE WEEKEND. GFS IS BEGINNING TO SHOW DEEPENING OF THE SFC
LOW, BUT BOTH ECMWF AND LESSER SO THE GFS, ARE HAVING AN ISSUE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. AT THIS POINT, THE BULK OF THAT SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF ILX, AND WILL PROBABLY SEE CONTINUED STORMY
IMPACTS FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE...DEPENDING ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE WAVE ALOFT GETS.
SHOULD THE GFS HOLD OUT, THE IMPACTS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH A
STRONGER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STORMS FOR TUESDAY.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1245 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014
...Updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
Main focus is on this afternoon and tonight. Problematic forecast because
the short term convective allowing mesoscale models aren`t handling
the current situation that well. The most recent RAP is starting to
get a clue and looks reasonable. Convection is firing off an old outflow
boundary and a minor upper level pressure perturbation. Convection is
building southward with southerly winds feeding into it, so think storms
will continue to increase in coverage with this associated warm air
advection and eventually forward propagate. Large Hail Parameter (LHP)
is lower now with a value of 4. Think this is due to fairly less steep
mid level lapse rates and more marginal upper level wind shear. Anyhoo,
moderate instability and lower end shear will still support the notion
of severe weather across the forecast area. The most significant threat
is heavy rainfall with pwats up 116% above normal per blended satellite
derived products. Ramped up pops and qpf, although my pops could be
raised even higher, but did not want to be too out of coordination with
neighbors. Will monitor and tweak pops and wx as needed in the ESTF
period. Lows tonight will be in the 60s. Highs in the 80sF tomorrow
with more MCS activity likely.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
For Wednesday night, a lee trough will be nearly stationary with
moist upslope flow. The upper level winds are very weak, but with
good instability some thunderstorms will be likely mainly north of
and east of Dodge City. Have upped thunderstorms chances to around
60 percent in the I-70 area and 30 to 40 percent elsewhere. The
chances for widespread severe weather looks only marginal at this
time with weak upper level support. Overnight lows will be mild and
in the mid to upper 60s.
For Thursday, a lee trough continues with moist upslope flow and
again the upper winds look weak to support any severe weather. Some
thunderstorms will be lingering across mainly parts of south central
Kansas. Highs will range from the low to mid 90s west towards the
Colorado border, to the upper 80s east across parts of south central
Kansas.
For the period of Friday into next Tuesday, a strong upper level
shortwave trough will be moving east into the Intermountain
West and Colorado Rockies on Friday afternoon. This system then
lifts northeast into the Northern Plains for the Weekend. The best
chances for thunderstorms looks to be along the I-70 corridor on
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The main storm track then looks
to remain north of Kansas into Tuesday. Overnight lows will be mild
in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with highs warming from around 90 on
Friday to the mid 90s on Sunday and Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
Much like yesterday, we will likely see mid to late afternoon
thunderstorms redeveloping as surface-based instability
increases...as we remain in a similar pattern to yesterday.
Outside of thunderstorms, winds will average southeast at 12 to 15
knots. The best time frame for storms will be from roughly 21Z
Wednesday to 02Z Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 89 68 92 / 40 20 10 10
GCK 67 90 68 96 / 40 20 10 10
EHA 66 93 67 97 / 30 10 10 10
LBL 68 92 69 96 / 30 20 10 10
HYS 67 88 69 93 / 60 30 10 10
P28 68 89 69 91 / 50 40 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1141 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. SOME CONVECTION IS STARTING TO POP UP BEHIND THE LINE THAT
WENT THROUGH THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS SHOULD START DECREASING RAPIDLY AS THE SUN
SETS THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 921 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THE TIMING OF THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. EXPECT SOME
REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS LINE AS THE TEMPERATURES RISE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WERE NOT VERY CONSISTENT ON ANY
TIMING AND LOCATION OF WHERE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR...SO LEFT THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION FORECAST
MORE GENERIC AND DID NOT TRY TO TIME ANY FEATURES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FINALLY SHOWING SOME WESTWARD
PROGRESSION THIS MORNING AND IS STARTING TO SHOW A BIT MORE COVERAGE.
HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. ALSO BROUGHT AN END TO THE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHWEST EARLY AS
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IS UNLIKELY AND THE FRONT AND LIFT PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST. MAY NEED TO END PRECIP EARLIER FURTHER EAST AS THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING MOVES EAST. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 07Z FEATURE SOME
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAWN HOURS. THE FRONT OR RATHER MORE OF JUST A WEAK
BOUNDARY WITH LITTLE GRADIENT LIES JUST TO THE WEST THROUGH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST INTO THE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH A WEAKENING OVERALL TREND TO THIS
FEATURE...HAVE DROPPED MOST POPS TO CHANCE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE DAY. THE INSTABILITY REMAINS SO WILL GO WITH A COVERAGE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND
A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON. PROBLEM IS THAT
THE HI RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND THE SREF BRING THE FRONT
THROUGH A BIT EARLY BASED ON TRENDS AND HAVE GONE WITH A LATE MORNING
PASSAGE AND WILL KEEP THUNDER CHANCES IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING BUT CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION.
THIS WILL ALSO BRING COOLING TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE LOWER 80S.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...PRECIP WILL END IN THE EAST RATHER EARLY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL ESPECIALLY...WILL BE LIKELY
TO SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE PUT THIS IN THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.
THE BRIEF RIDGING SHOULD HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AND KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
DISTURBANCE BUT OVERALL...THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY AT THIS
TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
A NW/SE ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE
SITUATED JUST TO OUR SW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH MORE
HUMID/UNSTABLE AIR NEAR AND SW OF THE BOUNDARY...AND SOMEWHAT LESS
HUMID AIR OVER THE JKL FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT OR PREVENT
PRECIP FOR OUR AREA INITIALLY. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NE AND
DISSOLVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THEN
INCREASING FOR OUR AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS TIME...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SE CONUS. HOWEVER...IT
WILL LIKELY BE A DIRTY RIDGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR OUR LOCAL AREA
SHOW A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT CAP...INCREASED MOISTURE IN FLOW OFF
THE GULF...WEAK LAPSE RATES...AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS TROPICAL
ATMOSPHERE WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH A
DIURNAL TREND. HAVE USED 20-30 PERCENT POPS EACH PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD START TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF IS SHOWN TO
BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES AND MAY SEND A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARD US BY
MIDWEEK...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING OR HOW
WELL THE FRONT HOLDS TOGETHER. WITH MIXED SIGNALS CONCERNING THE
FAVORABILITY OF CONDITIONS FOR PRECIP...THE RESULTING FORECAST WILL
BE A CONTINUING LOW POP WITH A DIURNAL TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
SOME LOWER CEILINGS ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING AS SOME SHOWERS ARE
HEADING EAST. HAVE PUT SOME IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS IN THROUGH 16Z TO
18Z AT MOST TAF SITES. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15
KNOTS POSSIBLE. THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM TODAY AND CALM WINDS
TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE PUT THIS
IN ALL THE TAF SITES STARTING AT THE 01Z TO 03Z PERIOD AND INCREASING
IN COVERAGE TOWARDS DAWN.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
921 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THE TIMING OF THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. EXPECT SOME
REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS LINE AS THE TEMPERATURES RISE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WERE NOT VERY CONSISTENT ON ANY
TIMING AND LOCATION OF WHERE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR...SO LEFT THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION FORECAST
MORE GENERIC AND DID NOT TRY TO TIME ANY FEATURES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FINALLY SHOWING SOME WESTWARD
PROGRESSION THIS MORNING AND IS STARTING TO SHOW A BIT MORE COVERAGE.
HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. ALSO BROUGHT AN END TO THE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHWEST EARLY AS
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IS UNLIKELY AND THE FRONT AND LIFT PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST. MAY NEED TO END PRECIP EARLIER FURTHER EAST AS THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING MOVES EAST. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 07Z FEATURE SOME
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAWN HOURS. THE FRONT OR RATHER MORE OF JUST A WEAK
BOUNDARY WITH LITTLE GRADIENT LIES JUST TO THE WEST THROUGH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST INTO THE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH A WEAKENING OVERALL TREND TO THIS
FEATURE...HAVE DROPPED MOST POPS TO CHANCE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE DAY. THE INSTABILITY REMAINS SO WILL GO WITH A COVERAGE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND
A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON. PROBLEM IS THAT
THE HI RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND THE SREF BRING THE FRONT
THROUGH A BIT EARLY BASED ON TRENDS AND HAVE GONE WITH A LATE MORNING
PASSAGE AND WILL KEEP THUNDER CHANCES IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING BUT CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION.
THIS WILL ALSO BRING COOLING TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE LOWER 80S.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...PRECIP WILL END IN THE EAST RATHER EARLY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL ESPECIALLY...WILL BE LIKELY
TO SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE PUT THIS IN THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.
THE BRIEF RIDGING SHOULD HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AND KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
DISTURBANCE BUT OVERALL...THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY AT THIS
TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
A NW/SE ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE
SITUATED JUST TO OUR SW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH MORE
HUMID/UNSTABLE AIR NEAR AND SW OF THE BOUNDARY...AND SOMEWHAT LESS
HUMID AIR OVER THE JKL FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT OR PREVENT
PRECIP FOR OUR AREA INITIALLY. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NE AND
DISSOLVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THEN
INCREASING FOR OUR AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS TIME...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SE CONUS. HOWEVER...IT
WILL LIKELY BE A DIRTY RIDGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR OUR LOCAL AREA
SHOW A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT CAP...INCREASED MOISTURE IN FLOW OFF
THE GULF...WEAK LAPSE RATES...AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS TROPICAL
ATMOSPHERE WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH A
DIURNAL TREND. HAVE USED 20-30 PERCENT POPS EACH PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD START TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF IS SHOWN TO
BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES AND MAY SEND A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARD US BY
MIDWEEK...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING OR HOW
WELL THE FRONT HOLDS TOGETHER. WITH MIXED SIGNALS CONCERNING THE
FAVORABILITY OF CONDITIONS FOR PRECIP...THE RESULTING FORECAST WILL
BE A CONTINUING LOW POP WITH A DIURNAL TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
SOME LOWER CEILINGS ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING AS SOME SHOWERS ARE
HEADING EAST. HAVE PUT SOME IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS IN THROUGH 16Z TO
18Z AT MOST TAF SITES. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15
KNOTS POSSIBLE. THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM TODAY AND CALM WINDS
TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE PUT THIS
IN ALL THE TAF SITES STARTING AT THE 01Z TO 03Z PERIOD AND INCREASING
IN COVERAGE TOWARDS DAWN.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
736 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FINALLY SHOWING SOME WESTWARD
PROGRESSION THIS MORNING AND IS STARTING TO SHOW A BIT MORE COVERAGE.
HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. ALSO BROUGHT AN END TO THE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHWEST EARLY AS
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IS UNLIKELY AND THE FRONT AND LIFT PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST. MAY NEED TO END PRECIP EARLIER FURTHER EAST AS THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING MOVES EAST. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 07Z FEATURE SOME
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAWN HOURS. THE FRONT OR RATHER MORE OF JUST A WEAK
BOUNDARY WITH LITTLE GRADIENT LIES JUST TO THE WEST THROUGH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST INTO THE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH A WEAKENING OVERALL TREND TO THIS
FEATURE...HAVE DROPPED MOST POPS TO CHANCE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE DAY. THE INSTABILITY REMAINS SO WILL GO WITH A COVERAGE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND
A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON. PROBLEM IS THAT
THE HI RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND THE SREF BRING THE FRONT
THROUGH A BIT EARLY BASED ON TRENDS AND HAVE GONE WITH A LATE MORNING
PASSAGE AND WILL KEEP THUNDER CHANCES IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING BUT CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION.
THIS WILL ALSO BRING COOLING TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE LOWER 80S.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...PRECIP WILL END IN THE EAST RATHER EARLY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL ESPECIALLY...WILL BE LIKELY
TO SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE PUT THIS IN THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.
THE BRIEF RIDGING SHOULD HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AND KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
DISTURBANCE BUT OVERALL...THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY AT THIS
TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
A NW/SE ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE
SITUATED JUST TO OUR SW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH MORE
HUMID/UNSTABLE AIR NEAR AND SW OF THE BOUNDARY...AND SOMEWHAT LESS
HUMID AIR OVER THE JKL FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT OR PREVENT
PRECIP FOR OUR AREA INITIALLY. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NE AND
DISSOLVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THEN
INCREASING FOR OUR AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS TIME...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SE CONUS. HOWEVER...IT
WILL LIKELY BE A DIRTY RIDGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR OUR LOCAL AREA
SHOW A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT CAP...INCREASED MOISTURE IN FLOW OFF
THE GULF...WEAK LAPSE RATES...AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS TROPICAL
ATMOSPHERE WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH A
DIURNAL TREND. HAVE USED 20-30 PERCENT POPS EACH PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD START TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF IS SHOWN TO
BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES AND MAY SEND A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARD US BY
MIDWEEK...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING OR HOW
WELL THE FRONT HOLDS TOGETHER. WITH MIXED SIGNALS CONCERNING THE
FAVORABILITY OF CONDITIONS FOR PRECIP...THE RESULTING FORECAST WILL
BE A CONTINUING LOW POP WITH A DIURNAL TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
SOME LOWER CEILINGS ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING AS SOME SHOWERS ARE
HEADING EAST. HAVE PUT SOME IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS IN THROUGH 16Z TO
18Z AT MOST TAF SITES. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15
KNOTS POSSIBLE. THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM TODAY AND CALM WINDS
TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE PUT THIS
IN ALL THE TAF SITES STARTING AT THE 01Z TO 03Z PERIOD AND INCREASING
IN COVERAGE TOWARDS DAWN.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
440 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 07Z FEATURE SOME
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAWN HOURS. THE FRONT OR RATHER MORE OF JUST A WEAK
BOUNDARY WITH LITTLE GRADIENT LIES JUST TO THE WEST THROUGH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST INTO THE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH A WEAKENING OVERALL TREND TO THIS
FEATURE...HAVE DROPPED MOST POPS TO CHANCE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE DAY. THE INSTABILITY REMAINS SO WILL GO WITH A COVERAGE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND
A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON. PROBLEM IS THAT
THE HI RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND THE SREF BRING THE FRONT
THROUGH A BIT EARLY BASED ON TRENDS AND HAVE GONE WITH A LATE MORNING
PASSAGE AND WILL KEEP THUNDER CHANCES IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING BUT CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION.
THIS WILL ALSO BRING COOLING TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE LOWER 80S.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...PRECIP WILL END IN THE EAST RATHER EARLY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL ESPECIALLY...WILL BE LIKELY
TO SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE PUT THIS IN THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.
THE BRIEF RIDGING SHOULD HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AND KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
DISTURBANCE BUT OVERALL...THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY AT THIS
TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
A NW/SE ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE
SITUATED JUST TO OUR SW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH MORE
HUMID/UNSTABLE AIR NEAR AND SW OF THE BOUNDARY...AND SOMEWHAT LESS
HUMID AIR OVER THE JKL FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT OR PREVENT
PRECIP FOR OUR AREA INITIALLY. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NE AND
DISSOLVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THEN
INCREASING FOR OUR AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS TIME...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SE CONUS. HOWEVER...IT
WILL LIKELY BE A DIRTY RIDGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR OUR LOCAL AREA
SHOW A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT CAP...INCREASED MOISTURE IN FLOW OFF
THE GULF...WEAK LAPSE RATES...AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS TROPICAL
ATMOSPHERE WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH A
DIURNAL TREND. HAVE USED 20-30 PERCENT POPS EACH PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD START TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF IS SHOWN TO
BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES AND MAY SEND A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARD US BY
MIDWEEK...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING OR HOW
WELL THE FRONT HOLDS TOGETHER. WITH MIXED SIGNALS CONCERNING THE
FAVORABILITY OF CONDITIONS FOR PRECIP...THE RESULTING FORECAST WILL
BE A CONTINUING LOW POP WITH A DIURNAL TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SLOWLY TONIGHT
AND WITH THIS...CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP AS IS ALREADY OCCURRING
AT SME AND LOZ. JKL AND SJS WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS DAWN AND
HAVE PUT THEM IN THE TAFS TOWARDS 12Z WITH IFR CEILINGS AS THE
ACTIVITY MOVES IN. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AFTER 14Z AT MOST TAF
LOCATIONS WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EAST AND SJS...SEEING VCTS INTO
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...MOST LOCATIONS WILL RISE
TO VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN AFTER 00Z DUE TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE PUT THIS INTO THE TAF SITES AS WELL. THE LACK OF
CONFIDENCE TODAY WILL SHOW IN THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST AS SOME
LOCATIONS WILL GO ALL DAY WITHOUT SEEING ANY ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE FOR
WINDS...EXPECT SOUTH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST TO NORTH WEST WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW GUSS TO 20 KNOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
356 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 07Z FEATURE SOME
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAWN HOURS. THE FRONT OR RATHER MORE OF JUST A WEAK
BOUNDARY WITH LITTLE GRADIENT LIES JUST TO THE WEST THROUGH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST INTO THE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH A WEAKENING OVERALL TREND TO THIS
FEATURE...HAVE DROPPED MOST POPS TO CHANCE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE DAY. THE INSTABILITY REMAINS SO WILL GO WITH A COVERAGE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND
A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON. PROBLEM IS THAT
THE HI RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND THE SREF BRING THE FRONT
THROUGH A BIT EARLY BASED ON TRENDS AND HAVE GONE WITH A LATE MORNING
PASSAGE AND WILL KEEP THUNDER CHANCES IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING BUT CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION.
THIS WILL ALSO BRING COOLING TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE LOWER 80S.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...PRECIP WILL END IN THE EAST RATHER EARLY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL ESPECIALLY...WILL BE LIKELY
TO SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE PUT THIS IN THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.
THE BRIEF RIDGING SHOULD HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AND KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
DISTURBANCE BUT OVERALL...THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY AT THIS
TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SLOWLY TONIGHT
AND WITH THIS...CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP AS IS ALREADY OCCURRING
AT SME AND LOZ. JKL AND SJS WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS DAWN AND
HAVE PUT THEM IN THE TAFS TOWARDS 12Z WITH IFR CEILINGS AS THE
ACTIVITY MOVES IN. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AFTER 14Z AT MOST TAF
LOCATIONS WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EAST AND SJS...SEEING VCTS INTO
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...MOST LOCATIONS WILL RISE
TO VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN AFTER 00Z DUE TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE PUT THIS INTO THE TAF SITES AS WELL. THE LACK OF
CONFIDENCE TODAY WILL SHOW IN THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST AS SOME
LOCATIONS WILL GO ALL DAY WITHOUT SEEING ANY ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE FOR
WINDS...EXPECT SOUTH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST TO NORTH WEST WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW GUSS TO 20 KNOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
104 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.AVIATION...
VERY MOIST AIRMASS RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINMAKING CONVECTION. FQT
LTG STRIKES...IFR CIGS/VSBYS...AND GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KTS MAY
OCCUR IN STORMS. CURRENTLY...MAIN AXIS OF CONVECTION RUNNING EAST
TO WEST NEAR I-20 CORRIDOR. KTYR...KGGG AND KSHV ALL AFFECTED BY
THESE CONDITIONS ATTM...WITH THIS LINE DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE KMLU
TERMINAL FROM THE WEST. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT NORTH...AND MAY AFFECT THE KTXK AND KELD TERMINALS AFTER
25/21Z. EXTENSIVE STG STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TX...LIKELY
PERSIST AND MOVE INTO AREA THIS EVENING...PERSISTING WELL BEYOND
26/00Z. THE PREDOMINANT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KTS...BUT
GUSTY NEAR STORMS. FOG AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL...WHICH SO FAR
INCLUDES KTYR...KGGG...AND KSHV TERMINALS./VII/.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION ALONG OUR SOUTHERN ZONES OUT
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS SPREADING A REGION OF LIFT TO OUR
AREA. HRRR IS CURRENTLY DEPICTING A LINE OF CONVECTION THAT WILL
INITIATE AROUND THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WHICH LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST. NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME...
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL KEY FACTORS ARE IN PLAY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING SHOWS MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN MOST ZONES AND THIS IS AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
WHICH SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...A MYRIAD OF BOUNDARIES EXIST
FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION AS WELL AS A REMNANT MCV SPINNING IN THE
VICINITY OF PARIS TEXAS AND HUGO OKLAHOMA. UNABLE TO LOCATE THE
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE LATEST SFC
ANALYSIS BUT LATEST HOURLY 30AGL THETAE ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
WHATS LEFT OF IT HAS MOVED NORTH OF OUR REGION. 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF OUR REGION
WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS. THIS PUTS OUR REGION IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF PVA DESPITE
WEAK DIVQ ALOFT. PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA WILL
COME NORTHWARD TODAY...MAKING IT AT LEAST TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY
AFTERNOON AND ALL THIS WITH JUST A LITTLE HEATING SHOULD RESULT
IN DESCENT STORM COVERAGE TODAY. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO HIGH END CHANCE/LIKELY VARIETY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR...TAPERING POPS BACK TO CHANCE VARIETY ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NORTHERN ZONES.
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AND SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVHD DURING THE DAY THURSDAY ALBEIT
FILLING SLIGHTLY AS IT COMES OUR WAY. THUS...EXPECTING ANOTHER
STRONG PRECIP COVERAGE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS WARRANTED
ACROSS OUR SE ZONE TAPERING POPS BACK TO CHANCE VARIETY ACROSS OUR
NW ZONES. A REMNANT SHEAR AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE ECMWF HAS BACKED
OFF ITS SUGGESTION OF A RETROGRADING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COMING
OUR WAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO SHUT DOWN THE CONVECTION...HAD
TO RAISE POPS TO CHANCE VARIETY FOR FRIDAY AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT...ON SATURDAY AS WELL.
OTHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY...IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE
WILL BEGIN TO SEE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDING EASTWARD FROM THE
UPPER RED RIVER BASIN OF NW TX INTO SW OK AND THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND FOR OUR REGION WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...OBVIOUSLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL BE TIED TO THE
COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION OUR AREA RECEIVES.
GIVEN THAT WE EXPECT BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE TODAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BOTH DAYS...BUT ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND LOWER TO MID 90S LOOK GOOD AS WELL FOR OUR RAIN FREE
DAYS COMING UP NEXT WEEK.
AS WITNESSED ON TUESDAY...GIVEN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...
WHERE WE SEE POCKETS OF HEATING AND STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOP THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE RESULT WITH
RAINFALL RATES NEAR TWO INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. THIS KIND OF
RAIN WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
NOT TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE FROM A
COLLAPSING STORM. WILL HIT THIS WORDING HARD IN THE MORNING
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 86 70 84 71 87 / 60 40 60 30 40
MLU 85 70 83 69 86 / 60 40 60 30 50
DEQ 89 68 85 68 89 / 30 30 40 30 30
TXK 88 68 85 70 88 / 30 30 50 30 30
ELD 87 68 84 68 86 / 30 40 60 30 40
TYR 88 70 85 71 88 / 60 30 50 30 30
GGG 87 70 84 72 88 / 60 30 50 30 40
LFK 85 71 83 71 87 / 60 40 60 30 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1214 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.AVIATION...
A BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS RANGING FROM 10K TO 15K FEET WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL A RISK OF SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z...AND HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR
VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO REFLECT THIS RISK FROM AROUND
21 THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. AFTER 02Z...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON THE FORMATION OF A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES THAT A BAND OF
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS FROM 02Z THROUGH 08Z. HAVE
DECICED TO SIMPLY PLACE VCTS WORDING IN FOR ALL OF THE TERMINALS
TO COVER THIS POSSIBLE THREAT. THE CONVECTION MAY LINGER BEYOND
08Z AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW...AS THE MCS DISSIPATES. 32
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 70 83 69 83 / 70 70 50 40
BTR 72 86 72 85 / 70 70 50 40
ASD 73 87 72 87 / 60 70 50 40
MSY 75 88 76 88 / 60 70 50 40
GPT 77 90 76 90 / 50 60 40 40
PQL 72 89 71 88 / 50 60 50 40
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
940 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION ALONG OUR SOUTHERN ZONES OUT
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS SPREADING A REGION OF LIFT TO OUR
AREA. HRRR IS CURRENTLY DEPICTING A LINE OF CONVECTION THAT WILL
INITIATE AROUND THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WHICH LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST. NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014/
AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AT KTYR. THESE CEILINGS MAY AFFECT PARTS OF EAST
TEXAS BEFORE LIFTING. THE COMBINATION OF A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...A VERY RICH SUPPLY
OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...AND UPPER DISTURBANCES AROUND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE FOUR STATE AREA
FROM THE WEST...ALONG WITH WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN AND NEAR THE INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD ON
THURSDAY PROVIDING A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH WET SOILS AND CONTINUED SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY TO LIGHT SOUTH INCREASING TO 6 TO
12 KNOTS THROUGH 26/00Z THEN REMAINING LIGHT SOUTH LESS THAN 7
KNOTS. /06/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL KEY FACTORS ARE IN PLAY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING SHOWS MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN MOST ZONES AND THIS IS AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
WHICH SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...A MYRIAD OF BOUNDARIES EXIST
FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION AS WELL AS A REMNANT MCV SPINNING IN THE
VICINITY OF PARIS TEXAS AND HUGO OKLAHOMA. UNABLE TO LOCATE THE
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE LATEST SFC
ANALYSIS BUT LATEST HOURLY 30AGL THETAE ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
WHATS LEFT OF IT HAS MOVED NORTH OF OUR REGION. 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF OUR REGION
WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS. THIS PUTS OUR REGION IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF PVA DESPITE
WEAK DIVQ ALOFT. PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA WILL
COME NORTHWARD TODAY...MAKING IT AT LEAST TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY
AFTERNOON AND ALL THIS WITH JUST A LITTLE HEATING SHOULD RESULT
IN DESCENT STORM COVERAGE TODAY. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO HIGH END CHANCE/LIKELY VARIETY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR...TAPERING POPS BACK TO CHANCE VARIETY ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NORTHERN ZONES.
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AND SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVHD DURING THE DAY THURSDAY ALBEIT
FILLING SLIGHTLY AS IT COMES OUR WAY. THUS...EXPECTING ANOTHER
STRONG PRECIP COVERAGE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS WARRANTED
ACROSS OUR SE ZONE TAPERING POPS BACK TO CHANCE VARIETY ACROSS OUR
NW ZONES. A REMNANT SHEAR AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE ECMWF HAS BACKED
OFF ITS SUGGESTION OF A RETROGRADING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COMING
OUR WAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO SHUT DOWN THE CONVECTION...HAD
TO RAISE POPS TO CHANCE VARIETY FOR FRIDAY AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT...ON SATURDAY AS WELL.
OTHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY...IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE
WILL BEGIN TO SEE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDING EASTWARD FROM THE
UPPER RED RIVER BASIN OF NW TX INTO SW OK AND THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND FOR OUR REGION WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...OBVIOUSLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL BE TIED TO THE
COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION OUR AREA RECEIVES.
GIVEN THAT WE EXPECT BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE TODAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BOTH DAYS...BUT ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND LOWER TO MID 90S LOOK GOOD AS WELL FOR OUR RAIN FREE
DAYS COMING UP NEXT WEEK.
AS WITNESSED ON TUESDAY...GIVEN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...
WHERE WE SEE POCKETS OF HEATING AND STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOP THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE RESULT WITH
RAINFALL RATES NEAR TWO INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. THIS KIND OF
RAIN WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
NOT TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE FROM A
COLLAPSING STORM. WILL HIT THIS WORDING HARD IN THE MORNING
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 86 70 84 71 87 / 60 40 60 30 40
MLU 85 70 83 69 86 / 60 40 60 30 50
DEQ 89 68 85 68 89 / 30 30 40 30 30
TXK 88 68 85 70 88 / 30 30 50 30 30
ELD 87 68 84 68 86 / 30 40 60 30 40
TYR 88 70 85 71 88 / 60 30 50 30 30
GGG 87 70 84 72 88 / 60 30 50 30 40
LFK 85 71 83 71 87 / 60 40 60 30 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
35
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
812 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SEASONABLY WARM W/ A TOUCH LESS HUMIDITY...ESP AWAY FM THE CST
THIS AFTN. SCT-BKN CU COVERS THE FA. WATCHING ISOLD CNVTN OVR
PORTIONS OF HIGHER TERRAIN IN WCNTRL VA...AND INVOF ERN ALBEMARLE
SOUND. WILL HAVE SLGT CHC POPS FOR NW AND FAR SE COUNTIES IN FA
THROUGH MID EVE. RUC EARLIER TDA SUGGESTED THAT ISOLD PCPN COULD
LINGER ACRS CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF FA OVRNGT. THE MDL HAS SINCE
LESSENED THAT PROB...THOUGH WON`T RULE OUT ONE OR TWO STRAY SHRAS
HANGING ON UNTIL AFT MDNGT. ANOTHER CONCERN IS PSBL DEVELOPMENT OF
AREAS OF LO CLDS AND/OR FG INVOF SE VA/NE NC WHERE DRYING/LWRG OF
DEWPTS HAS BEEN LIMITED/NOT TAKEN PLACE SO FAR TDA. OTRW...CLR-
PCLDY THROUGH OVRNGT HRS W/ LO TEMPS FM THE M60S TO L70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST RUN (12Z/26) OF GFS RMNS MOST AGRESSIVE W/ SPREAD OF
MOISTURE INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW BEGINNING FRI AND CONTG THROUGH
WKND. WILL RMN CAUTIOUS ABOUT RAISING POPS TOO HI AND/OR TOO FAR TO
THE E W/ MEAN RIDGE ALOFT SITUATED INVOF ERN CONUS. SFC HI PRES
XPCD TO PROTECT THE CST FM ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLD PCPN (ESP THIS
WKND). WILL HAVE SOME INCRS (MNLY DIURNAL OR AFTN/EVE HRS) IN POPS
ACRS INLAND AREAS (ESP ALG-W OF I 95) HEADING THROUGH SUN. HI
TEMPS EACH DAY MNLY FM THE M/80S (WELL) INLAND TO 80 TO 85F CLOSER
TO THE CST (LOCALLY U70S RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES. LO TEMPS
EACH NGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL HAVE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE IS SOME
UPPER LEVEL TROFING DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON THURSDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF QUESTIONS ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FRONT. WILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH POTENTIALLY BETTER CHANCES LATER IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW SCT CLOUDS REMAINING.
SKIES EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WNDS. SFC BNDRY
LYING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND INTO NE NC. A FEW SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
WEST OF RIC BUT NOT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO AFFECT ANY TAF
SITES. LIGHT WNDS AND SOME LOW LVL MOISTURE MAY HELP TO DEVELOP
PTCHY GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE DENSE BUT 1-3
MI VSBY IS PSBL. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH
PRES WILL CONT TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRI BUT SOME ISOLD
SHOWERS/TSTMS PSBL WITH THE FRONT AS IT LINGER OVER NORTHERN NC. ISOLD
TO SCT SHRAS/TSTMS PSBL THRU THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE STRETCHING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS TROF WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTH
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DEVELOP AN EAST FLOW ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY. WINDS
REMAIN UNDER SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE SOME HIGHER
SEAS ALONG THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE LONGER ONSHORE WIND
FETCH.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JDM/JEF
MARINE...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
200 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING AS DEW POINTS SLOWLY RISE
DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS DIFFER A BIT
ON HOW MUCH PCPN ACROSS NC LIFTS N INTO SRN VA BY 12Z. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...KEPT LOW CHC POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF RT 460. WARMER
NIGHT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE U60S-M70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS AGREE ON THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND THE NORTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY...BUT ARE STRUGGLING SOME TO DEPICT THE FEATURES AND
LIFT PATTERNS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH OVER VA AND NC. SO THIS HAS LED
TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
WITH THE TROUGH LIFTING TO THE NORTH...THE BEST FORCING IS ALSO
LIFTING NORTH AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NRN VA/WRN MD INTO PA WED
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH VA/NC DURING
THIS TIME...BUT THE BOUNDARY IS WEAK AND THE LIFT IS NOT FOCUS SO
HAVE HELD MOST POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DID KEEP A LITTLE AREA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO THE FORCING. THE OTHER FEATURE TO WATCH IS THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE SERN US COAST THAT
GETS PULLED NORTHWARD ON WED. THIS COULD KICK OFF SHOWERS ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS FROM ERN NC THROUGH THE DELMARVA. BUT AGAIN THE
FORCING IS NOT STRONG AND THE TIMING IS EARLY IN THE DAY. SO FOR
NOW HAVE JUST GONE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THAT WAVE.
THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY SO HAVE THE
SFC FRONT OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXITING BY THURS AFTERNOON. SO HAVE SPED THE CLEARING OF THE POPS
THUR AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BE DRY EVERYWHERE BASE ON HOW QUICK
THE DRY AIR ARRIVES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
BY THURS EVENING INTO FRIDAY...WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVE AND
SLOWLY SLIDE OFF THE COAST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL TURN THE
SFC FLOW FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BACK TO THE SE BY FRI
AFTERNOON. WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS...COULD
SEE SOME POP UP CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT SO HAVE KEPT SLGT CHC
POPS IN THE SOUTH BUT DID DRY OUT AREAS FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED NEAR THE MOS NUMBERS FOR
THE PERIOD...LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS ON WED WITH
SOME MORNING SUNSHINE...AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER MOISTURE THAT WILL TAKE TIME TO ERODE AFTER THE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. FROM THURS TO FRIDAY...HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD A STRAIGHT
BLEND...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AGREE WITH WPC THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH OVERALL
PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD. THIS LOOKS TO BE A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN FOR THE AREA. A RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ALOFT ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS
NEAR 70.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY LIGHT S/SSE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME MVFR
STRATUS EARLY WED MORNING OVER THE TERMINALS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW PRECIP
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES NORTH.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING LAYERED CEILINGS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY
AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING/PLACEMENT
OF PRECIP IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN THE
TAFS. AREAS OF MVFR/PATCHY IFR FOG OR STRATUS WILL BE PSBL EACH
MORNING NEAR SUNRISE.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ALL DEPICT A SOUTHERLY SURGE UP THE BAY. THIS
DOES HAPPEN SOMETIMES WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. LOOKING AT THE MODEL WINDS ONLY THE RUC SHOWS
WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW THE LOCAL
WRF AND KEEP WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 18 KTS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE. ALL MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A FAIRLY WEAK FRONT.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND AND GRADUALLY SHIFT THE WINDS
TO THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL STAY UNDER SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
154 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2584
AREAS OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND TOUCH OFF
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DRY WEATHER CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE A
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. A GOOD
PORTION OF THE WEEKEND IT WILL NOT BE RAINING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BECOME VERY WARM TO HOT OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
GOING FORECAST ON TRACK AT THIS POINT. STILL EXPECTING THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH IS
THE FOCUS OF THIS UPDATE.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE AREA AT
MIDDAY...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LATE JUNE SUN. HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF SCATTERED POPS JUST A BIT
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING IS BEING DELAYED BY THE
CLOUDS. AFTER CLOUDS BEGIN TO ERODE WE SHOULD HEAT FAIRLY QUICK
INTO THE MIDDLE 70S WHICH WILL PROVIDE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG. THIS TYPE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
THAN ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH AND CONVERGENT
SURFACE WINDS.
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER WISCONSIN ROTATING OUR DIRECTION. THE GENERAL WIND FIELD AT
THE PRESENT TIME IS FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST...OUTFLOW FROM A
SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONVERGE WITH A LAKE BREEZE ONCE WE BURN OFF THE STRATUS TO
PROVIDE A DECENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE. THE MAX AREA OF CONVERGENCE
VIA HRRR FIELDS LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT BALDWIN SOUTH TO KALAMAZOO.
THIS AREA SHOULD BE WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS POP UP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. LACK OF SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT...BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME SMALL HAIL AND A WIND GUST TO 30 MPH OR
SO ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP. AGAIN
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL HINGE ON THE EROSION OF THE STRATUS TO KICK
IN THE LAKE BREEZE AND HENCE THE AREA OF CONVERGENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2584
WE WILL BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SRN PORTION OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE PCPN POTENTIAL FOR TODAY.
THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA IS SEEING THE MOST CONCENTRATED FOG THIS
MORNING WITH MANY SITES REPORTING BETWEEN A QUARTER OF A MILE AND
ONE MILE ALREADY. THE SOUTH IS WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN FELL
YESTERDAY AND HAD THE CLOUDS MOVE OUT LAST SO LESS EVAPORATION TOOK
PLACE. NOTHING IS REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE THROUGH SUNRISE...SO IT
SHOULD ONLY CONTINUE.
THE FOCUS THEN BECOMES THE CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY. A NICE SHORT
WAVE CAN BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY SPINNING NEAR KMSP AT 06Z THIS
MORNING. THIS SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA
DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT INSTABILITY WILL
BE LACKING A BIT WITH ML CAPES REMAINING UNDER 1000 J/KG THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE AROUND 850
MB WHICH WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT SLIGHTLY ALSO. WITH THESE FACTORS
CONSIDERED...WE HAVE KEPT THE CHCS LIMITED A BIT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS NOT SHABBY WITH VALUES AROUND 30 KNOTS...SO A STRONGER STORM WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
WE EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL SLIP EAST OF THE AREA JUST AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING
AND ABOUT THE SAME TIME WE WILL LOSE OUR DIURNAL HEATING. WE EXPECT
SKIES TO CLEAR OUT A BIT...AND SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD TRY AND ADVECT
IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS WAVE.
THE PERIOD FROM THU THROUGH FRI LOOKS TO BE QUIET ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO DIG
IN ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IN RETURN BUILD
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR REGION. THE SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING IN SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRI. TEMPS WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
TODAY...WARMING TO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY FRI.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2584
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL LOOKS LIKE ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL
OCCUR. MODELS ARE IN OK AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.
ONE SHORTWAVE TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE LEAD TO INSTABILITY AND EVENTUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. A LOW LEVEL JET IS SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA SO THE
ADDED LIFT MAY ENHANCE THE DURATION AND TOTAL RAINFALL OF THE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS COULD OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LOW
TRACKS EASTWARD FROM MANITOBA TO ONTARIO. ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES MAY COMBINE WITH STRONG
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. MON INTO TUE
WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. WILL KEEP
THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS GOING.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
RAPID IMPROVEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EROSION
OF MORNING FOG. CEILINGS ARE ALSO SHOWING IMPROVEMENT AND SHOULD
CLIMB INTO VFR LEVELS. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS
INLAND POSSIBLY SPARKING A FEW STORMS...HENCE THE VCTS CARRIED IN
THE TAFS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY FADE THIS EVENING.
FOG ONCE AGAIN BECOMES A CONCERN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE STUBBORN.
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT IFR CATEGORIES TONIGHT BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
PUSHED THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT IN TIME...THROUGH 700 PM
AS A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL BE ABLE TO REEVALUATE THE MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2584
IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA IN GENERAL SHOULD NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL GIVE THE
AREA A GOOD CHANCE TO DRY OUT A BIT AND ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO
RECOVER FROM THE RECENT RAINS THAT HAVE OCCURRED.
WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORMS TODAY...AND THEN AGAIN
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...HOWEVER NOTHING WIDESPREAD
IS EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...JAM
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
130 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN
SLOW TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME POCKETS ARE OPENING UP ALLOWING
BETTER MIXING TO TAKE PLACE SO WILL GO WITH A GENERAL IMPROVING
TREND FROM MVFR CIGS TO VFR BY EVENING. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE WHILE COLD AIR ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS SHOULD TREND TOWARD SCT BY MORNING AS
COLD AIR EXITS AND DRY AIR TAKES OVER.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT TODAY...LOW CONFIDENCE
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 407 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE LOWER MICHIGAN
BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL WAVES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. WEAK SUBSIDENCE
BETWEEN THE FEATURES WILL SUPPRESS SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
THUMB REGION BY SUNRISE. THAT WILL LEAVE FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO
CONTEND WITH DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH SE MICHIGAN. THE LATEST TREND IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORT VISIBILITY HANGING AROUND 1/2 MILE FROM
THE I-69 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD WHERE THE WIND IS CALM AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE CLEARING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN
PATCHES BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR TOO SOON
FOR AN ADVISORY...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR HEADLINE POTENTIAL
THROUGH SUNRISE. FARTHER NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...LIGHT NE SURFACE
WIND IS TRANSITIONING FOG TO LOW STRATUS WHICH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH
THE ENTIRE AREA BY MID MORNING AND THEN PERSIST TOWARD NOON.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE OHIO BORDER AS THE UPPER CIRCULATION OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES
TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS FEATURE IS CLEARLY SEEN IN WV SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK REFLECTION THAT WILL
SLIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND PREVENT IT FROM SETTLING TOO FAR SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THE NAM AND RAP MODELS GIVE A GOOD LOOK AT SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN LOWER...IN THE LEE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN WEAK GRADIENT FLOW WHILE
THE FRONT ITSELF LINGERS OVER OHIO AND INDIANA. DELAYED LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINT LINGERING IN THE LOWER 60S. SOME COOLING ALOFT IS
ALSO EXPECTED AS THE UPPER CIRCULATION MOVES OVERHEAD. MODEL
DEPICTION OF 500 MB TEMP INDICATES READINGS COOLING FROM ABOUT
-10C TO ABOUT -14C BY EVENING RESULTING IN SURFACE BASED CAPE
AROUND 750 J/KG TO POSSIBLY NEAR 1000 J/KG IF THE NAM SURFACE
PARCEL WORKS OUT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON SURFACE CONVERGENCE BUT COULD DRIFT INTO OUR
AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75/US 23 CORRIDOR. ACTIVITY WILL ALSO
BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON DIURNAL HEATING AND SO WILL DISSIPATE BY
MID EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL THEN ALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER LOWER MICHIGAN MORE FIRMLY DURING THE
NIGHT.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A STABLE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXPAND THROUGH ALL OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY...CLEARING ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BY THE AFTERNOON...THE MODELED MSLP
STRUCTURE IS ONE SHOWING A HEAVY LAKE AGGREGATE COMPONENT. MODELS
ARE RESOLVING SPURIOUS QPF BLOTCHES IN THE REGION WHICH BRINGS THE
SUSPICION THAT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION PARAMETRIZATION MAY BE BEGINNING
TO SHOW THEMSELVES. THE COMBINATION OF A DRY NEAR SURFACE AIRMASS
WITH SOME MODELED SUBSIDENCE DOWN INTO THE 12 KFT AGL LEVEL NEGATES
ANY POSSIBILITY OF MENTIONING A LOW POP. THE ONLY THING GOING FOR
THIS PERIOD IS SOME RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH 80 DEGREES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXES PUSHING EASTWARD INTO
STATE. BUMPED AVAILABLE GUIDANCE UPWARD FOR THE FRIDAY PERIOD WITH A
SOLID INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB ABOVE 80 DEGREES.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO PIVOT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS WEEKEND OPENING THE DOOR FOR DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
SATURDAY...INCREASING ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM
SUMMERTIME WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. THE QUESTION IS WHEN WILL PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN.
FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES SUGGEST WAIT
UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN.
MARINE...
IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN YESTERDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER ALL
OF THE MARINE AREAS. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS INITIAL COLD FRONT IS
NOT THAT COLD...SO NOT EXPECTING A ROBUST RESPONSE IN THE NORTHERLY
WIND FIELD. THAT BEING SAID...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESPOND
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN
SHOULD RANGE IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD AGGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. DESPITE COOLER AIR
BLANKETING THE REGION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
SLACKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN. VERY QUIET MARINE
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1152 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2584
AREAS OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND TOUCH OFF
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DRY WEATHER CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE A
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. A GOOD
PORTION OF THE WEEKEND IT WILL NOT BE RAINING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BECOME VERY WARM TO HOT OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
GOING FORECAST ON TRACK AT THIS POINT. STILL EXPECTING THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH IS
THE FOCUS OF THIS UPDATE.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE AREA AT
MIDDAY...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LATE JUNE SUN. HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF SCATTERED POPS JUST A BIT
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING IS BEING DELAYED BY THE
CLOUDS. AFTER CLOUDS BEGIN TO ERODE WE SHOULD HEAT FAIRLY QUICK
INTO THE MIDDLE 70S WHICH WILL PROVIDE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG. THIS TYPE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
THAN ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH AND CONVERGENT
SURFACE WINDS.
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER WISCONSIN ROTATING OUR DIRECTION. THE GENERAL WIND FIELD AT
THE PRESENT TIME IS FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST...OUTFLOW FROM A
SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONVERGE WITH A LAKE BREEZE ONCE WE BURN OFF THE STRATUS TO
PROVIDE A DECENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE. THE MAX AREA OF CONVERGENCE
VIA HRRR FIELDS LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT BALDWIN SOUTH TO KALAMAZOO.
THIS AREA SHOULD BE WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS POP UP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. LACK OF SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT...BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME SMALL HAIL AND A WIND GUST TO 30 MPH OR
SO ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP. AGAIN
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL HINGE ON THE EROSION OF THE STRATUS TO KICK
IN THE LAKE BREEZE AND HENCE THE AREA OF CONVERGENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2584
WE WILL BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SRN PORTION OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE PCPN POTENTIAL FOR TODAY.
THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA IS SEEING THE MOST CONCENTRATED FOG THIS
MORNING WITH MANY SITES REPORTING BETWEEN A QUARTER OF A MILE AND
ONE MILE ALREADY. THE SOUTH IS WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN FELL
YESTERDAY AND HAD THE CLOUDS MOVE OUT LAST SO LESS EVAPORATION TOOK
PLACE. NOTHING IS REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE THROUGH SUNRISE...SO IT
SHOULD ONLY CONTINUE.
THE FOCUS THEN BECOMES THE CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY. A NICE SHORT
WAVE CAN BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY SPINNING NEAR KMSP AT 06Z THIS
MORNING. THIS SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA
DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT INSTABILITY WILL
BE LACKING A BIT WITH ML CAPES REMAINING UNDER 1000 J/KG THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE AROUND 850
MB WHICH WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT SLIGHTLY ALSO. WITH THESE FACTORS
CONSIDERED...WE HAVE KEPT THE CHCS LIMITED A BIT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS NOT SHABBY WITH VALUES AROUND 30 KNOTS...SO A STRONGER STORM WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
WE EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL SLIP EAST OF THE AREA JUST AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING
AND ABOUT THE SAME TIME WE WILL LOSE OUR DIURNAL HEATING. WE EXPECT
SKIES TO CLEAR OUT A BIT...AND SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD TRY AND ADVECT
IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS WAVE.
THE PERIOD FROM THU THROUGH FRI LOOKS TO BE QUIET ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO DIG
IN ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IN RETURN BUILD
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR REGION. THE SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING IN SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRI. TEMPS WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
TODAY...WARMING TO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY FRI.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2584
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL LOOKS LIKE ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL
OCCUR. MODELS ARE IN OK AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.
ONE SHORTWAVE TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE LEAD TO INSTABILITY AND EVENTUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. A LOW LEVEL JET IS SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA SO THE
ADDED LIFT MAY ENHANCE THE DURATION AND TOTAL RAINFALL OF THE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS COULD OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LOW
TRACKS EASTWARD FROM MANITOBA TO ONTARIO. ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES MAY COMBINE WITH STRONG
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. MON INTO TUE
WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. WILL KEEP
THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS GOING.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MI
TAF SITES DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
FLYING CONDITIONS FOR AVIATORS. BY NOON...CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH AN INCREASE TO MVFR FOR MOST
LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON...ADDING TO THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS. MORE FOG
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...CONTINUING THE HAZARDOUS FLYING CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
PUSHED THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT IN TIME...THROUGH 700 PM
AS A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL BE ABLE TO REEVALUATE THE MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2584
IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA IN GENERAL SHOULD NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL GIVE THE
AREA A GOOD CHANCE TO DRY OUT A BIT AND ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO
RECOVER FROM THE RECENT RAINS THAT HAVE OCCURRED.
WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORMS TODAY...AND THEN AGAIN
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...HOWEVER NOTHING WIDESPREAD
IS EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
710 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR AS FOG LIFTS INTO LOW STRATUS
OVER THE REST OF THE TERMINAL SITES DURING THE MORNING. THIS HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED AT MBS AND WILL SPREAD THROUGH DTW AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES TO THE OHIO BORDER. THE FRONT WILL ALSO SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING AROUND THE FNT AREA UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING.
AFTER THAT...A SLOW RISE IN CEILING WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND LESS HUMID AIR ARRIVING
FOR A CLEARING TREND DURING THE EVENING. VFR BROKEN CLOUDS BELOW
5000 FT ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED IN MODEL DATA BY THE LACK OF
OBSERVATIONS AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT TODAY...LOW CONFIDENCE
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 407 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE LOWER MICHIGAN
BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL WAVES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. WEAK SUBSIDENCE
BETWEEN THE FEATURES WILL SUPPRESS SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
THUMB REGION BY SUNRISE. THAT WILL LEAVE FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO
CONTEND WITH DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH SE MICHIGAN. THE LATEST TREND IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORT VISIBILITY HANGING AROUND 1/2 MILE FROM
THE I-69 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD WHERE THE WIND IS CALM AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE CLEARING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN
PATCHES BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR TOO SOON
FOR AN ADVISORY...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR HEADLINE POTENTIAL
THROUGH SUNRISE. FARTHER NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...LIGHT NE SURFACE
WIND IS TRANSITIONING FOG TO LOW STRATUS WHICH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH
THE ENTIRE AREA BY MID MORNING AND THEN PERSIST TOWARD NOON.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE OHIO BORDER AS THE UPPER CIRCULATION OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES
TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS FEATURE IS CLEARLY SEEN IN WV SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK REFLECTION THAT WILL
SLIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND PREVENT IT FROM SETTLING TOO FAR SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THE NAM AND RAP MODELS GIVE A GOOD LOOK AT SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN LOWER...IN THE LEE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN WEAK GRADIENT FLOW WHILE
THE FRONT ITSELF LINGERS OVER OHIO AND INDIANA. DELAYED LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINT LINGERING IN THE LOWER 60S. SOME COOLING ALOFT IS
ALSO EXPECTED AS THE UPPER CIRCULATION MOVES OVERHEAD. MODEL
DEPICTION OF 500 MB TEMP INDICATES READINGS COOLING FROM ABOUT
-10C TO ABOUT -14C BY EVENING RESULTING IN SURFACE BASED CAPE
AROUND 750 J/KG TO POSSIBLY NEAR 1000 J/KG IF THE NAM SURFACE
PARCEL WORKS OUT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON SURFACE CONVERGENCE BUT COULD DRIFT INTO OUR
AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75/US 23 CORRIDOR. ACTIVITY WILL ALSO
BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON DIURNAL HEATING AND SO WILL DISSIPATE BY
MID EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL THEN ALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER LOWER MICHIGAN MORE FIRMLY DURING THE
NIGHT.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A STABLE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXPAND THROUGH ALL OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY...CLEARING ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BY THE AFTERNOON...THE MODELED MSLP
STRUCTURE IS ONE SHOWING A HEAVY LAKE AGGREGATE COMPONENT. MODELS
ARE RESOLVING SPURIOUS QPF BLOTCHES IN THE REGION WHICH BRINGS THE
SUSPICION THAT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION PARAMETRIZATION MAY BE BEGINNING
TO SHOW THEMSELVES. THE COMBINATION OF A DRY NEAR SURFACE AIRMASS
WITH SOME MODELED SUBSIDENCE DOWN INTO THE 12 KFT AGL LEVEL NEGATES
ANY POSSIBILITY OF MENTIONING A LOW POP. THE ONLY THING GOING FOR
THIS PERIOD IS SOME RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH 80 DEGREES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXES PUSHING EASTWARD INTO
STATE. BUMPED AVAILABLE GUIDANCE UPWARD FOR THE FRIDAY PERIOD WITH A
SOLID INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB ABOVE 80 DEGREES.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO PIVOT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS WEEKEND OPENING THE DOOR FOR DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
SATURDAY...INCREASING ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM
SUMMERTIME WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. THE QUESTION IS WHEN WILL PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN.
FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES SUGGEST WAIT
UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN.
MARINE...
IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN YESTERDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER ALL
OF THE MARINE AREAS. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS INITIAL COLD FRONT IS
NOT THAT COLD...SO NOT EXPECTING A ROBUST RESPONSE IN THE NORTHERLY
WIND FIELD. THAT BEING SAID...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESPOND
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN
SHOULD RANGE IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD AGGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. DESPITE COOLER AIR
BLANKETING THE REGION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
SLACKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN. VERY QUIET MARINE
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
407 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE LOWER MICHIGAN
BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL WAVES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. WEAK SUBSIDENCE
BETWEEN THE FEATURES WILL SUPPRESS SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
THUMB REGION BY SUNRISE. THAT WILL LEAVE FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO
CONTEND WITH DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH SE MICHIGAN. THE LATEST TREND IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORT VISIBILITY HANGING AROUND 1/2 MILE FROM
THE I-69 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD WHERE THE WIND IS CALM AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE CLEARING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN
PATCHES BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR TOO SOON
FOR AN ADVISORY...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR HEADLINE POTENTIAL
THROUGH SUNRISE. FARTHER NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...LIGHT NE SURFACE
WIND IS TRANSITIONING FOG TO LOW STRATUS WHICH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH
THE ENTIRE AREA BY MID MORNING AND THEN PERSIST TOWARD NOON.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE OHIO BORDER AS THE UPPER CIRCULATION OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES
TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS FEATURE IS CLEARLY SEEN IN WV SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK REFLECTION THAT WILL
SLIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND PREVENT IT FROM SETTLING TOO FAR SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THE NAM AND RAP MODELS GIVE A GOOD LOOK AT SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN LOWER...IN THE LEE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN WEAK GRADIENT FLOW WHILE
THE FRONT ITSELF LINGERS OVER OHIO AND INDIANA. DELAYED LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINT LINGERING IN THE LOWER 60S. SOME COOLING ALOFT IS
ALSO EXPECTED AS THE UPPER CIRCULATION MOVES OVERHEAD. MODEL
DEPICTION OF 500 MB TEMP INDICATES READINGS COOLING FROM ABOUT
-10C TO ABOUT -14C BY EVENING RESULTING IN SURFACE BASED CAPE
AROUND 750 J/KG TO POSSIBLY NEAR 1000 J/KG IF THE NAM SURFACE
PARCEL WORKS OUT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON SURFACE CONVERGENCE BUT COULD DRIFT INTO OUR
AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75/US 23 CORRIDOR. ACTIVITY WILL ALSO
BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON DIURNAL HEATING AND SO WILL DISSIPATE BY
MID EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL THEN ALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER LOWER MICHIGAN MORE FIRMLY DURING THE
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A STABLE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXPAND THROUGH ALL OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY...CLEARING ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BY THE AFTERNOON...THE MODELED MSLP
STRUCTURE IS ONE SHOWING A HEAVY LAKE AGGREGATE COMPONENT. MODELS
ARE RESOLVING SPURIOUS QPF BLOTCHES IN THE REGION WHICH BRINGS THE
SUSPICION THAT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION PARAMETRIZATION MAY BE BEGINNING
TO SHOW THEMSELVES. THE COMBINATION OF A DRY NEAR SURFACE AIRMASS
WITH SOME MODELED SUBSIDENCE DOWN INTO THE 12 KFT AGL LEVEL NEGATES
ANY POSSIBILITY OF MENTIONING A LOW POP. THE ONLY THING GOING FOR
THIS PERIOD IS SOME RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH 80 DEGREES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXES PUSHING EASTWARD INTO
STATE. BUMPED AVAILABLE GUIDANCE UPWARD FOR THE FRIDAY PERIOD WITH A
SOLID INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB ABOVE 80 DEGREES.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO PIVOT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS WEEKEND OPENING THE DOOR FOR DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
SATURDAY...INCREASING ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM
SUMMERTIME WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. THE QUESTION IS WHEN WILL PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN.
FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES SUGGEST WAIT
UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN.
&&
.MARINE...
IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN YESTERDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER ALL
OF THE MARINE AREAS. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS INITIAL COLD FRONT IS
NOT THAT COLD...SO NOT EXPECTING A ROBUST RESPONSE IN THE NORTHERLY
WIND FIELD. THAT BEING SAID...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESPOND
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN
SHOULD RANGE IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD AGGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. DESPITE COOLER AIR
BLANKETING THE REGION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
SLACKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN. VERY QUIET MARINE
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1200 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
//DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE COMBINED WITH
VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT THE EXPANSION OF LOWER
STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH THE TIME. RECENT OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A PERIOD OF LIFR CEILING REMAINS POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS...CONCURRENT WITH IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. STEADY
DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS VORT MAX ROTATING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
MN...TRIGGERING SCT TSTMS OVER NRN WISCONSIN. THE HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX AND SUGGESTS
THE STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE HAYWARD LAKES/CHEQUAMEGON
NATIONAL FOREST REGION THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN DIMINISHES AFTER
THE NOON HOUR AS THE WAVE EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR BEHIND THE WAVE WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES FOR A
FEW SHOWERS OVER NRN MN TODAY. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION
OF THUNDER FOR THE MN ZONES WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED TO
LESS THAN 100 J/KG.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER ONTARIO WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...SETTLING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY. THE LATEST NAM/GFS/ECM SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD REGION LATE
TODAY/OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE DRY AIR AND BUILDING SFC HIGH/CLEARING
SKIES...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR INLAND
AREAS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST RESULTS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE SW FLOW WILL SET OFF
VARIOUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE QUITE A VARIETY OF QPF SOLUTIONS AS SHOULD
BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SETUP...BUT OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY WET
WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY TO
THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGS MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY THOUGH...SO WE DID BACK OFF A BIT ON POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF
A WESTERLY FLOW BY EARLY IN THE NEXT WORK WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THERE WILL
BE SOME PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL...AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BUT SOME LOWER 80S
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
MVFR CEILINGS COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS WERE STARTING TO RISE. EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS OUT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WAS PROVIDING A
DRY FEED OF AIR...BUT CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RESPOND. THE RAP
DOES SUGGEST CEILINGS WILL RISE TO VFR AND SCATTER OUT IN SPOTS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WE DO EXPECT A CU FIELD TO
FORM IN ANY CLEAR AREAS...AND THAT MAY GO BROKEN AS WELL.
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...BUT THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT LOWER CEILINGS AND SOME FOG MAY FORM. WE HAVE A
A MENTION OF SOME FOG AND LOWER CEILINGS IN SOME OF THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WE`LL MONITOR SATELLITE/OB TRENDS AND UPDATE AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 57 45 61 52 / 0 0 0 20
INL 69 50 76 54 / 0 0 10 40
BRD 70 51 77 63 / 10 10 20 30
HYR 67 49 75 59 / 10 10 20 20
ASX 59 43 68 51 / 0 10 0 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM....DAP
AVIATION.....MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
418 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS VORT MAX ROTATING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
MN...TRIGGERING SCT TSTMS OVER NRN WISCONSIN. THE HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX AND SUGGESTS
THE STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE HAYWARD LAKES/CHEQUAMEGON
NATIONAL FOREST REGION THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN DIMINISHES AFTER
THE NOON HOUR AS THE WAVE EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR BEHIND THE WAVE WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES FOR A
FEW SHOWERS OVER NRN MN TODAY. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION
OF THUNDER FOR THE MN ZONES WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED TO
LESS THAN 100 J/KG.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER ONTARIO WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...SETTLING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY. THE LATEST NAM/GFS/ECM SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD REGION LATE
TODAY/OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE DRY AIR AND BUILDING SFC HIGH/CLEARING
SKIES...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR INLAND
AREAS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST RESULTS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE SW FLOW WILL SET OFF
VARIOUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE QUITE A VARIETY OF QPF SOLUTIONS AS SHOULD
BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SETUP...BUT OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY WET
WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY TO
THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGS MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY THOUGH...SO WE DID BACK OFF A BIT ON POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF
A WESTERLY FLOW BY EARLY IN THE NEXT WORK WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THERE WILL
BE SOME PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL...AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BUT SOME LOWER 80S
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. STRATUS OVER ALL TERMINALS AS OF 05Z IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH CIGS SLOWLY LOWERING FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SOME FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED. CIGS ARE MAINLY IFR TO
LIFR. CIGS EXPECTED TO FINALLY LIFT GRADUALLY BEGINNING AROUND
16Z...BUT MAY NOT RETURN TO VFR UNTIL AFTER 20Z DEPENDING ON
LOCATION. MVFR STRATUS TO RE-FORM FOR KHYR...KDLH AND KBRD AFTER
03Z TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 57 45 61 52 / 20 10 0 10
INL 69 50 76 54 / 20 10 10 10
BRD 70 51 77 63 / 20 10 20 30
HYR 67 49 75 59 / 40 10 20 20
ASX 59 43 68 51 / 40 10 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
722 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 717 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
Base on current radar and satellite trends lowering PoPs over most
of the CWA. The exception being far northwest MO which will be
closest to scattered convection tied to the remnant MCV over
northeast KS. Little if any lift to the south of the MCV. Models have
continued to do a poor job handling the weak flow summer convection.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 338 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
Quite a lot to talk about in the short term as several features of
interest will impact the Central Plains/Lwr Missouri Rvr Vly through
the weekend. The first of these is currently on the doorstep so to
speak with a slow moving MCV now positioned over east-central Kansas.
In reality...this feature has been quite impressive in that
this system has maintained itself through much of the day with
regional radars now showing a weak leading line of convection
stretched from near Emporia south to the Kansas/Oklahoma state line.
Recent trends over the past hour or so have indicated the feature is
beginning to decay...however will maintain chc pops across the far
western zones through the remainder of the afternoon. Further
east...very little activity expected through the remainder of the
afternoon however the HRRR continues to advertise some weak "pulsy"
type convection this afternoon and thus will maintain an iso mention
for areas primarly east of the route 65 corridor.
Heading into tonight...numerous near term models to include the HRRR
and Rapid-Refresh suggest convection now firing over southeastern
Nebraska will gradually develop into an MCS before diving southeast
towards our area. As a result...have kept the highest pops over the
northern third of the CWA...with mainly an iso mention south of the
I-70 corridor. As was highlighted earlier today...limited to no
severe wx expected based on very poor wind fields aloft. Of greater
concern will be slow storm movement and possible heavy rainers with
any storms that do develop. PWAT values still remain high this
afternoon as verified on latest Blended TPW and percent of normal
satellite products. Overnight lows should fall into the upper 60s to
lower 70s for most locations.
Overnight convection should begin skirting off to the east on Friday
as main mid-level vort/MCV slowly tracks east with time. As a
result...have advertised an improving trend through the afternoon
from west to east as region becomes enveloped in increasing
subsidence behind departing feature. Another warm one expected with
highs likely climbing into the middle to upper 80s.
Things begin to heat up going into the weekend as large longwave
trough ejects east from the central Rockies. As this occurs...all
short term model guidance in reasonably good agreement that overall
trough orientation will take on a negative tilt...with pressure falls
immediately east of the Front Range resulting in pronounced moisture
and thermal advection north into the central Plains/Lwr Missouri Rvr
Vly. That said...upper winds also forecast to increase as a mid-level
speed max of roughly 45-50 kts rotates into the area during the
afternoon. This combined with a low-level jet of nearly equal
magnitude and a moderately unstable airmass should allow for favorable
conditions for developing convection by Saturday afternoon. One thing
of particular interest this afternoon is the model/s suggesting of
very steep mid-level lapse rates nosing into our area as well-
established EML plume propagates east off the southern
Rockies/Mexican Plateau. One caveat potentially going against robust
development will be the degree of destabalization as
overnight convection across the central High Plains may result in a
decent CI canopy aloft. Late afternoon activity could easily continue
into the overnight period as bulk shear vectors take on a more
"along- parallel" trajectory which could favor a gradual transition
to a linear based system. In any event...something to definately keep
an eye on as the event nears.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 338 PM CDT THU JUN
26 2014
Subsidence behind Saturday night`s shortwave should keep most of
Sunday dry aside from some potential lingering precipitation across
central Missouri early in the day. However, a secondary weak
shortwave rounding the base of a large upper trough to the north
could bring another round of storms into Iowa and northern Missouri
Sunday night. This activity should develop ahead of a weak front
which will drop into eastern Nebraska Sunday night and slowly sag
south of the I-70 corridor through Tuesday. This will bring
additional chances for thunderstorms to much of the region Monday
and Monday night before the cold front moves south of the forecast
area by Tuesday. Ahead of the front, a warm and humid airmass Sunday
and Monday could send heat index values into the upper 90s to near
100, and also provide quite a bit of instability for a few
potentially strong storms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
VFR conditions expected through the majority of the fcst cycle. A
complex of thunderstorms currently over central Kansas will continue
to slide east this afternoon. As this occurs...scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop across eastern Kansas and
western Missouri during the afternoon. For now...have elected to
maintain a VCTS mention at all sites beginning at 20z. As always...if
activity moves over any fcst terminals...brief restrictions to MVFR
or IFR will be possible. Beyond this...models suggest additional
showers and storms will move into the area after sunset as convection
across central and eastern Nebraska dives southeast into the area.
For now...the most likely terminal to have any impacts is STJ and a
VCTS mention will be maintained through the overnight period. SSE
winds between 10-15 kts will weaken to 5-10 kts overnight before
again increasing after 14z.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
700 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
HAVE UPDATED THE EVENING FORECAST TO ADJUST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NE. HRRR SUGGESTING A COMPLEX
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST AND MOVING EAST LATER THIS EVENING.
CURRENT RADAR EVOLVING CLOSE TO HRRR PROGS AND THIS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE TEMPS LEFT PRETTY MUCH AS IS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS RESIDE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO. ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE BASED
CAPES RUNNING IN THE 3000 TO 4500 J/KG RANGE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S. LITTLE CAPPING INVERSION LEFT AND EXPECT THAT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST FORCING REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT EXPECT A CLUSTER OR TWO OF STORMS TO MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...AIDED BY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 KTS.
AGAIN BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING TO REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...SO
WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW. OTHERWISE A VERY MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES DUE TO HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE/HUMIDITY.
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE FAVORABLE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT /DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S/ SHOULD YIELD MLCAPE IN
EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG. A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BE IN PLACE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COOLING ALOFT ALSO SPREADS
INTO THE AREA AFTER NOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DISTURBANCE. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR MERRIMAN TO OGALLALA SHOULD
BE THE FOCUS FOR RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND 3 OR 4 PM
CENTRAL TIME. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE BACKED TO THE
SOUTHEAST...VEERING TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT. INITIAL STORM MODE WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT. RATHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AT FIRST. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND FASTER
MOVING AS COLD POOL ALOFT EVOLVES AND STORMS SPREAD EAST FRIDAY
EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. A
RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS CREATING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 8.5
C/KM. SCATTERED COVERAGE WEST OF HWY 83 EARLY IN THE EVENING
SHOULD QUICKLY CONGEAL INTO A SMALL MCS. WHILE LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN EARLY EVENING...THIS
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A DAMAGING WIND/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
PUSH EAST OF THE FA FOR DRY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN
INTO SRN MANITOBA AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AGAIN BE STEEP AND AS CAP
WEAKENS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM MINNESOTA INTO NERN AND CENTRAL NEBR. THE ECMWF MODEL
IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS SUN AFTN/EVENING TO AS HIGH AS 30 TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF FA.
DRY AND PLEASANT MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 80S UNDER
INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN AIRMASS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY RETURN TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
DIFFICULT FORECAST ESPECIALLY FOR KLBF SITE THROUGH 09Z OR SO. TSRA
IS DEVELOPING AS PER SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND BASED ON
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS PARAMETERS PROGRESSION EWD THIS EVENING SEEMS
REASONABLE. LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AS WELL WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE ANY ORGANIZED COMPLEX AS IT MOVES EWD...BUT SHOULD BE
SOUTH OF KVTN. DIFFICULTY LIES IN CIG FORECAST POST TSRA. SHORT RANGE
MODELS AND NAM INDICATING GOOD POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH
STRATUS BEHIND THE CONVECTION AND HAVE PUT THIS IN THE FORECAST
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW BASED ON EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF TSRA.
BEYOND 12Z...AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE IN POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS BUT
TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AGAIN BY AFTERNOON AT BOTH KLBF AND
KVTN.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JWS
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
633 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
HAVE UPDATED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS FOR ONGOING TRENDS. AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY-DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST...AND
RADAR ALSO INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO.
SHOULD BE SOMETHING OF A BREAK BETWEEN ONGOING CONVECTION AS IT
DIMINISHES AND MOVES EASTWARD...AND LATER CONVECTION THAT IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE
TRIED TO CAPTURE TIMING A LITTLE MORE DISTINCTLY THROUGH MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS FIRED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE REMNANTS FROM AN MCV ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS MOVE INTO THE
AREA...COMBINED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES 3000-4000 J/KG.
EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK...LESS THAN 25 KNOTS...SO THE
STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY PULSY UP AND DOWN WITH SMALL HAIL AND 30 TO
50 MPH WINDS REPORTED. RAP MODEL INDICATES THIS WOULD REMAIN IN
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...THUS CONTINUED SCATTERED
WORDING IN THE FORECAST. SPC ALSO INDICATES A WATCH IS UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME. WEAK UPPER TROUGH EVEN REMAINS IN THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...AND COULD SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS...WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLE LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO INDUCE VERY SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY...COULD SEE
ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON STORMS.
BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD COME LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. STORMS
WILL LIKELY FIRE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS IN THE LEE TROUGH
AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO CROSS THE ROCKIES. THESE STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST...AND MOSTLY BRING A SEVERE RISK TO AREAS WEST OF
US...BUT SHOULD MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT...THUS HAVE POPS INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA...JUST CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS. WIND SHEAR IS STILL MARGINAL...
BUT COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THE
FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA. COULD SEE AN EVENING CHANCE
OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY EVENING...BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY...AND EVEN DRY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
BUT AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...IT
SHOULD DRIVE THE FRONT INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WIND SHEAR INCREASES ON SUNDAY
AND SHOULD SEE SEVERE STORMS BREAK OUT NORTH OF I80 BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN DEVELOP SOUTHWARD TOWARD I80 THROUGH THE EVENING
AS THE FRONT MOVES IN...THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL
PUSH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...WHEN NEXT CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO EARLY
OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SHORT-LIVED MVFR VISIBILITY OR
CEILINGS IN THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THOSE ARE WEAKENING FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COULD SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
LOCATION...AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS. MAY ALSO
SEE MVFR VISIBLITIES NEAR DAWN...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN OCCURRED
TODAY NEAR KOMA/KLNK. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION JUST YET.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MAYES
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
632 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
A SLOWLY DEPARTING MCV IS CURRENTLY EXITING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON ITS BACK
EDGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
MCV...COULD SEE A BRIEF STRONG STORM...WITH PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 14.
AFTER THIS MCV EXITS THE REGION...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WHERE
SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND
SHIFT EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH GOOD
CLEARING TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY HAS BUILT ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...WITH 3000-4000 JOULES OF CAPE...AND
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION OF THIS
CONVECTION...DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS A 50 KT LLJ SETS UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...LIKED THE HRRR SOLUTION THE BEST...AND KEPT THE HIGHEST
POPS TO THE WEST PRIOR TO 06Z...SPREADING CHANCES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THEREAFTER.
FOR FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT WITH THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHIFTING EASTWARD AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THIS TROUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT THE SHOT
FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...ALBEIT BETTER
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE AFT 00Z FRIDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURE WISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH BOTH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY EXPECTED TO RUN VERY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO LIE WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE ROUGHLY FIRST 24 HRS.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD /FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODELS HAVE
SHOWN MUCH CHANGE WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS HAVING SHIFTED ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS...AND RIDGING OVER
THE E/SERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
EXTENDED FROM WRN ND DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TX. MAIN FOCUS IS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
OFF TO THE WEST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL EVENTUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER LLJ...BUT VARY SOME ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE BETTER CONVERGENCE/LIFT...SO THE PLACEMENT OF ITS QPF VARIES A
BIT AS WELL. SAW NO REASON NOT TO KEEP THE LIKELY POPS GOING...BUT
DID HOLD BACK THE MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHER POPS UNTIL LATER IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING MAY SEE A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE ACTIVITY STILL WORKING ITS WAY EAST. WITH THE MODELS
COMBO OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND THE CWA REMAINS IN THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK
OUTLOOK. AS WE GET INTO SAT/SAT NIGHT...ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION...AS
WILL ANY REMNANT SFC BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND. MODELS HAVE PRECIP
LINGERING AROUND A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY...BUT WOULD THINK THERE
WOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK AT SOME POINT DURING THE MORNING...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE
WITH THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL AROUND...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF THE CWA.
THINK THAT ACTIVITY SATURDAY EVENING WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA...SO
AM KEEPING THE POST 06Z HOURS DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...AND KEPT THOSE DRY CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BY 12Z SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING MORE ZONAL FLOW HAVING SET UP ACROSS THE AREA...AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER SASKATCHEWAN.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SFC FRONT SLIDING SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW/SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
START PUSHING THE BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AS WE
GET INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...AND HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA /MAINLY SC NEB/.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...AT THIS POINT SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
THE INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEPART ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING...THEN THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. FORECAST MODELS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE
IFR CATEOGRY...BUT HAVE JUST TRENDED TO MVFR FOR NOW. ALSO...AS
THE LLVL STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF LLWS.
TIMING OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1259 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES.
REGIONAL RADAR HAS CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND AS IT MOVES TO
THE EAST IT HAS BEEN DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY TODAY AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. DESPITE
THE MAIN SIMILARITIES...THE MODELS HAVE SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS DRY BUT AS THE SUN COMES UP EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE HIGH
PLAINS CONVECTION COULD REACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BY AFTERNOON DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. THE HRRR AND
THE WRF BOTH BRING IN SOME CONVECTION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING
THE EVENING A LOW LEVEL JET STARTS UP A LITTLE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS
THAT THE SOUTH MIGHT BE A LITTLE WARMER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
THE BIGGEST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE DETERMINING CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SEVERE WEATHER.
THE OVERALL SITUATION CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EXHIBIT A DIGGING TROUGH IN
THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AS DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OCCURS. THIS COULD HELP SPARK
CONVECTION THURSDAY AND THIS CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL MOVE TO THE
EAST...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH SUPPORT AS THERE WILL BE ON
FRIDAY EVENING FROM A LOW-LEVEL JET AS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST
STARTS EJECTING SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY INTO THE HIGH/GREAT PLAINS.
FRIDAY NIGHT IS STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL JET...WITH THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BUT STILL WITH THE COLD
FRONT/TROUGH TO THE WEST. OVERALL...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SEVERE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT WE COULD SEE AT LEAST A STRONG STORM
FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...BUT FRIDAY DOES LOOK LIKE THE
MOST LIKELY DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY...SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS TO BE MORE DIFFICULT AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES TOP 15C
ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. IF THE ECMWF HAPPENS TO BE WRONG AND WE DO
POP THE CAP...THEN A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE
POSSIBLE...OF COURSE. FOR NOW...I WILL STICK TO JUST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY PERIODS FOR INCLUDING ANY ELEVATED SEVERE MENTION. MADE ONLY
SMALL CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FORECASTING IS
LOW...GIVEN THE MUDDLED FEATURES WE ARE DEALING WITH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE TIME BEING...KEPT VFR
CIGS AND A VCTS AFTER 26/22Z. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...INCREASING AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
629 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES.
REGIONAL RADAR HAS CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND AS IT MOVES TO
THE EAST IT HAS BEEN DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY TODAY AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. DESPITE
THE MAIN SIMILARITIES...THE MODELS HAVE SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS DRY BUT AS THE SUN COMES UP EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE HIGH
PLAINS CONVECTION COULD REACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BY AFTERNOON DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. THE HRRR AND
THE WRF BOTH BRING IN SOME CONVECTION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING
THE EVENING A LOW LEVEL JET STARTS UP A LITTLE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS
THAT THE SOUTH MIGHT BE A LITTLE WARMER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
THE BIGGEST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE DETERMINING CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SEVERE WEATHER.
THE OVERALL SITUATION CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EXHIBIT A DIGGING TROUGH IN
THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AS DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OCCURS. THIS COULD HELP SPARK
CONVECTION THURSDAY AND THIS CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL MOVE TO THE
EAST...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH SUPPORT AS THERE WILL BE ON
FRIDAY EVENING FROM A LOW-LEVEL JET AS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST
STARTS EJECTING SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY INTO THE HIGH/GREAT PLAINS.
FRIDAY NIGHT IS STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL JET...WITH THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BUT STILL WITH THE COLD
FRONT/TROUGH TO THE WEST. OVERALL...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SEVERE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT WE COULD SEE AT LEAST A STRONG STORM
FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...BUT FRIDAY DOES LOOK LIKE THE
MOST LIKELY DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY...SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS TO BE MORE DIFFICULT AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES TOP 15C
ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. IF THE ECMWF HAPPENS TO BE WRONG AND WE DO
POP THE CAP...THEN A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE
POSSIBLE...OF COURSE. FOR NOW...I WILL STICK TO JUST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY PERIODS FOR INCLUDING ANY ELEVATED SEVERE MENTION. MADE ONLY
SMALL CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FORECASTING IS
LOW...GIVEN THE MUDDLED FEATURES WE ARE DEALING WITH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND BROUGHT MVFR VISIBILITY TO THE
AREA. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE A LITTLE LOWER VISIBILITY BUT WITH THE
SUN COMING UP EXPECT THE VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
402 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES.
REGIONAL RADAR HAS CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND AS IT MOVES TO
THE EAST IT HAS BEEN DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY TODAY AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. DESPITE
THE MAIN SIMILARITIES...THE MODELS HAVE SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS DRY BUT AS THE SUN COMES UP EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE HIGH
PLAINS CONVECTION COULD REACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BY AFTERNOON DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. THE HRRR AND
THE WRF BOTH BRING IN SOME CONVECTION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING
THE EVENING A LOW LEVEL JET STARTS UP A LITTLE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS
THAT THE SOUTH MIGHT BE A LITTLE WARMER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
THE BIGGEST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE DETERMINING CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SEVERE WEATHER.
THE OVERALL SITUATION CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EXHIBIT A DIGGING TROUGH IN
THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AS DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OCCURS. THIS COULD HELP SPARK
CONVECTION THURSDAY AND THIS CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL MOVE TO THE
EAST...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH SUPPORT AS THERE WILL BE ON
FRIDAY EVENING FROM A LOW-LEVEL JET AS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST
STARTS EJECTING SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY INTO THE HIGH/GREAT PLAINS.
FRIDAY NIGHT IS STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL JET...WITH THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BUT STILL WITH THE COLD
FRONT/TROUGH TO THE WEST. OVERALL...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SEVERE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT WE COULD SEE AT LEAST A STRONG STORM
FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...BUT FRIDAY DOES LOOK LIKE THE
MOST LIKELY DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY...SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS TO BE MORE DIFFICULT AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES TOP 15C
ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. IF THE ECMWF HAPPENS TO BE WRONG AND WE DO
POP THE CAP...THEN A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE
POSSIBLE...OF COURSE. FOR NOW...I WILL STICK TO JUST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY PERIODS FOR INCLUDING ANY ELEVATED SEVERE MENTION. MADE ONLY
SMALL CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FORECASTING IS
LOW...GIVEN THE MUDDLED FEATURES WE ARE DEALING WITH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
309 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIR MASS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BREEZIER WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD
LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. AFTER THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS HIGHS
REACH WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE STATE. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING AND MOVE EAST WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE DRYLINE. THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
NE PLAINS AS THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SO
MAINTAINED LOW END CHANCE POPS. BASED ON SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
AND LATEST LAPS READINGS...A FEW SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE FAR NE PLAINS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST.
A DRY AIR MASS INDICATED BY THE CIRA BLENDED TPW PERCENT OF NORMAL
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
SCOUR OUT MOISTURE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE DRYLINE SETTING
UP ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER EACH DAY. MODELS HINT THAT THE
DISTURBANCE MAY DIP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SET OFF A FEW STORMS OVER
THE NORTHERN MTS FRIDAY...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE DRYLINE. STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO
BREEZIER CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. A FIRE WX WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL WEST TO EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY AS PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE DISTURBANCE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE NE PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING AND DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NE PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING. THIS THINKING
IS IN LINE WITH THE HIGH RES NAM MODEL THAT PICKS UP ON POTENTIAL
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY LACK.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BECOMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL AREA WIDE BY SUNDAY.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...INCREASING MOISTURE AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO THE AREA
UNDERNEATH THE HIGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ITS LATE IN THE MODEL
RUNS...BUT THIS MAY BE THE FIRST SIGNS OF MONSOON LIKE ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. HOPEFULLY THIS TREND HOLDS
IN ENSUING MODEL RUNS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENTLY HAVE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE EVENING DIMINISHING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THIS MORNINGS
READINGS STAYING ABOVE NORMAL AREA WIDE. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT
ACROSS THE EAST.
INTO THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
AND EASTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA WITH THE SUB TROPICAL HIGH
ELONGATED INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DRASTICALLY DECREASE WITH VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY EXPECTED AND ANYTHING
THAT DOES FORM WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
STATE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL MODERATE ACROSS THE WEST AND WILL TREND UP
ELSEWHERE. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCOMING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. WINDS ACROSS THE WEST AS WELL AS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL SEE GUSTS INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AREA WIDE WITH TEENS AND
LOW 20S ALONG THE FAR EASTERN BORDER WHERE MOISTURE IS STAYING PUT.
SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS AND THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS WITH SOME
SUPER HAINES VALUES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT WITH HIGH HAINES VALES AREA WIDE.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH INTENSIFYING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR AREA WIDE WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL LOWS TO
START OFF YOUR DAY. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AS
WELL AS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS WHERE TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS ARE FORECAST. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FURTHER ACROSS ALL AREAS...MOST PRONOUNCED AGAIN
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. THE DRYLINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE
STATE WITH MOISTURE DECREASING ACROSS THE EAST. MIN RH VALUES WILL
AGAIN BE DISMAL WITH TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS AREA WIDE. COMBINATION
OF THE WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAD TO MULTIPLE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
ZONES 103 AND 107 THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO SHOWING UP IN ZONES 104 AND 108
BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED THEM IN THE WATCH AT THIS TIME BECAUSE THEY
HAVE RECEIVED A LOT OF PRECIPITATION OF LATE. VENTILATION RATES WILL
BE EXCELLENT AREA WIDE.
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL ENSUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MINIMAL
CHANCES OF RAIN. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE STATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PULL LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SET UP
DURING THIS TIME THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
21
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AT KLVS...KTCC AND KROW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL
PICK UP INTO THE AFTERNOON AT ALL AREAS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS
EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND MOVE EASTWARD. HAVE VCTS AT KLVS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HAVE VCTS IN AT KTCC FOR THIS EVENING
POSSIBLY IMPACTING THEM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE WINDS
STAYING ELEVATED AT KTCC DUE TO CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WELL. WINDS WILL CALM INTO THE EVENING MOST AREAS WITH
THEM SET TO PICK UP RIGHT AROUND 17Z TOMORROW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 53 93 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 40 87 45 79 / 0 0 0 5
CUBA............................ 47 89 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 47 88 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 45 83 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 46 89 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 51 86 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 49 92 50 89 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 42 81 44 75 / 5 0 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 57 85 61 81 / 0 0 0 10
PECOS........................... 54 84 57 79 / 5 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 48 81 51 77 / 5 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 47 74 46 69 / 10 5 5 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 38 78 40 74 / 10 5 5 10
TAOS............................ 46 87 48 81 / 5 0 0 5
MORA............................ 49 84 52 80 / 10 5 5 10
ESPANOLA........................ 52 92 55 88 / 5 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 56 86 58 83 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 54 92 56 88 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 64 93 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 64 94 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 62 98 64 94 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 63 96 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 57 97 61 93 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 62 95 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 66 100 69 98 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 89 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 59 89 62 86 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 50 91 51 88 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 55 89 57 86 / 0 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 91 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 64 92 66 91 / 10 5 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 56 87 58 85 / 10 0 0 5
CAPULIN......................... 54 85 58 82 / 20 10 5 5
RATON........................... 53 92 53 88 / 20 10 5 10
SPRINGER........................ 53 93 55 88 / 10 10 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 51 89 56 85 / 5 0 5 5
CLAYTON......................... 61 93 62 93 / 30 10 10 10
ROY............................. 59 91 60 89 / 20 10 5 5
CONCHAS......................... 64 98 66 96 / 10 5 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 62 95 65 94 / 5 5 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 65 100 66 99 / 20 5 5 5
CLOVIS.......................... 60 94 62 94 / 20 5 5 10
PORTALES........................ 64 96 65 97 / 20 5 5 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 65 96 68 96 / 10 5 5 5
ROSWELL......................... 66 101 68 102 / 10 5 5 5
PICACHO......................... 61 94 64 94 / 10 5 5 5
ELK............................. 60 90 62 89 / 10 5 0 5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-107.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1142 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LCL MVFR CIGS EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MT CHAIN TO THE TEXAS BORDER
BEFORE 14Z WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY GRADIENT...AS CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX BUILDS SOUTHWARD THRU TX PANHANDLE AND NE AND EAST CENTRAL
NM. RGV WESTWARD...DRY WITH SCT AOA 150...POTENTIAL FOR EASTERLY
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25KT THROUGH CANYONS BEFORE 12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1023 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014...
.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353 HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A STRONG
TO SEVERE CELL MAY STILL POP UP IN UNION COUNTY WHERE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY HAS EXTENDED FROM NW TO SE...BUT OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED DISCRETE
UPDRAFTS LONG ENOUGH TO CONGEAL INTO A HARDY MCS. THE RAP MODEL
DOES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE UNION COUNTY CELLS TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD WITH OCCASIONAL MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS TAKING
SHAPE...HOWEVER THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH BASICALLY KILLS
OFF THE CONVECTION TOWARD MIDNIGHT. LEFT SOME SCATTERED POPS IN
OVER UNION...HARDING...AND QUAY COUNTIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
ALL THAT HIGH EITHER WAY. HAVE STRIPPED WATCH HEADLINES FROM THE
ZFP PRODUCT...BUT OTHERWISE MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...233 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND MOVING ONTO THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. AS STORMS MOVE INTO A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT THEY WILL STRENGTHEN AND COULD TURN SEVERE IN THE
NORTHEAST. A STORM MOVING ONTO THE CA COAST WILL PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SCOUR
OUT SOME OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT CONVECTION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DRYING TREND THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULD BRING AN UPTICK IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
STORMS FIRING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT FOR THE MOST PART HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY TAME. AS THEY CONTINUE EAST THEY WILL MOVE INTO A BETTER
ENVIRONMENT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW.
WILL CARRY MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS IN COLFAX...UNION...MORA...SAN
MIGUEL AND HARDING COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE THE
WEST WILL REMAIN DRY. CUMULUS NOT BUILDING AS WELL OVER THE GILA
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS IT DID YESTERDAY.
MOSTLY ISOLATED POPS ACROSS FOR THE EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE LESS THAN RECENT
DAYS. THE WEST WILL REMAIN DRY AS WILL MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY VERY WARM...CLOSE TO OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND HELP TO REMOVE SOME OF THE MOISTURE IN
THE AIR. THIS WILL MEAN LESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHEAST AND NEAR THE TX BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES THURSDAY ALL AREAS...THEN DROP SOME
IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY AS WE BEGIN TO FEEL THE IMPACTS OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY WILL DROP A COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN NM NEXT TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A FRESH
BATCH OF MOISTURE TO AT LEAST THE EAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE CONVECTION. CHJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. NO
STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WETTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS TODAY AND TOMORROW EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. EXPECT STORMS TO INITIATE
ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THEN TRACK
EAST ON TO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS. ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW IN THESE
AREAS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AS A
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN
WINDS...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND MIN RH VALUES
DECREASING TO SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AREAWIDE WILL CAUSE CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS TO TREND UPWARD THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY.
THE PEAK DAY FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY WITH
SUPER HAINES AND RED FLAG CRITERIA DEVELOPING FOR SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS OF NEW MEXICO.
VENT RATES GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY VALUES ARE TRENDING
DOWNWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES ARE
GOOD IN THE EASTERN PLAINS BUT TREND TO POOR TO FAIR MID-TO-LATE
WEEK. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES REMAIN POOR WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NEXT WEEK FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXTENDED RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS THE BUILDING OF A UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW FOR
INCREASED MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD INCREASING IN WETTING RAINS. 01
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1023 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353 HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A STRONG
TO SEVERE CELL MAY STILL POP UP IN UNION COUNTY WHERE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY HAS EXTENDED FROM NW TO SE...BUT OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED DISCRETE
UPDRAFTS LONG ENOUGH TO CONGEAL INTO A HARDY MCS. THE RAP MODEL
DOES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE UNION COUNTY CELLS TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD WITH OCCASIONAL MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS TAKING
SHAPE...HOWEVER THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH BASICALLY KILLS
OFF THE CONVECTION TOWARD MIDNIGHT. LEFT SOME SCATTERED POPS IN
OVER UNION...HARDING...AND QUAY COUNTIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
ALL THAT HIGH EITHER WAY. HAVE STRIPPED WATCH HEADLINES FROM THE
ZFP PRODUCT...BUT OTHERWISE MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...528 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCT SHRA WITH ISOLD TSRA EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MT CHAIN EASTWARD
WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT. MVFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE IN TSRA WITH HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45KT. POTENTIAL FOR LCL MVFR CIGS EAST SLOPES
CENTRAL MT CHAIN TO THE TEXAS BORDER AFT 06Z WITH LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY GRADIENT...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH. RGV WESTWARD...DRY WITH SCT AOA 150...POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25KT THROUGH
CANYONS 02-06Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...233 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND MOVING ONTO THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. AS STORMS MOVE INTO A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT THEY WILL STRENGTHEN AND COULD TURN SEVERE IN THE
NORTHEAST. A STORM MOVING ONTO THE CA COAST WILL PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SCOUR
OUT SOME OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT CONVECTION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DRYING TREND THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULD BRING AN UPTICK IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
STORMS FIRING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT FOR THE MOST PART HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY TAME. AS THEY CONTINUE EAST THEY WILL MOVE INTO A BETTER
ENVIRONMENT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW.
WILL CARRY MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS IN COLFAX...UNION...MORA...SAN
MIGUEL AND HARDING COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE THE
WEST WILL REMAIN DRY. CUMULUS NOT BUILDING AS WELL OVER THE GILA
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS IT DID YESTERDAY.
MOSTLY ISOLATED POPS ACROSS FOR THE EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE LESS THAN RECENT
DAYS. THE WEST WILL REMAIN DRY AS WILL MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY VERY WARM...CLOSE TO OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND HELP TO REMOVE SOME OF THE MOISTURE IN
THE AIR. THIS WILL MEAN LESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHEAST AND NEAR THE TX BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES THURSDAY ALL AREAS...THEN DROP SOME
IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY AS WE BEGIN TO FEEL THE IMPACTS OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY WILL DROP A COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN NM NEXT TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A FRESH
BATCH OF MOISTURE TO AT LEAST THE EAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE CONVECTION. CHJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. NO
STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WETTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS TODAY AND TOMORROW EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. EXPECT STORMS TO INITIATE
ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THEN TRACK
EAST ON TO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS. ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW IN THESE
AREAS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AS A
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN
WINDS...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND MIN RH VALUES
DECREASING TO SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AREAWIDE WILL CAUSE CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS TO TREND UPWARD THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY.
THE PEAK DAY FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY WITH
SUPER HAINES AND RED FLAG CRITERIA DEVELOPING FOR SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS OF NEW MEXICO.
VENT RATES GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY VALUES ARE TRENDING
DOWNWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES ARE
GOOD IN THE EASTERN PLAINS BUT TREND TO POOR TO FAIR MID-TO-LATE
WEEK. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES REMAIN POOR WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NEXT WEEK FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXTENDED RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS THE BUILDING OF A UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW FOR
INCREASED MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD INCREASING IN WETTING RAINS. 01
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
52
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1058 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND SLIGHTLY MILDER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER RIDGE NEXT WEEK COULD BRING A
RETURN TO HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR NEAR LUMBERTON...WITH A SECOND CENTER IN
WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR THE TYPICAL LOCATION OF THE
LEE-SIDE TROUGH. NORTHERLY WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA MARK THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SETTLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION HAS HELPED STABILIZE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LATEST MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS SHOWING A CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. DECENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT MEAN ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN 2000 J/KG MUCAPE AND A DEEP
ENOUGH BOUNDARY TO ACT AS A TRIGGERING MECHANISM. EARLIER CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE LESS THAN 2000 FEET DEEP AS
MEASURED BY RADAR...WHICH IS BECOMING MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
NEW STORMS. THE LATEST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS SHOW VERY LITTLE
SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. I WILL MAINTAIN A 20-40
POP FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ALONG THE CURVED BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
WILMINGTON AND LELAND TO NEAR TABOR CITY...BUT SOUTH AND WEST OF
THIS AREA POPS HAVE BEEN CUT TO 10 PERCENT.
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...WITH LOWS
STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S AT THE
BEACHES. DESPITE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST SHOULD
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...BROAD SWATH OF MOISTURE EMANATING FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MODULATE THE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MAIN AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A SUBTLE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE
PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE...A DECAYING FRONT WILL
ADD TO MID LEVEL CATALYSTS WHICH WILL CONSIST OF THE STANDARD
SHORTWAVES AND DEVELOPING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICIES. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGHER POPS FOR SATURDAY AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH ANYTIME IS FAIR GAME REALLY. THE
NAM/MET NUMBERS ARE COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD AND CONSIDERING THE
COVERAGE OF EXPECTED CONVECTION THESE SEEM MORE REASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE
BOUNDARY/WAVE SUNDAY TO MAKE FOR LOWERED RAIN CHANCES FROM DAYS
PREVIOUS WHILE TEMPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO. MID LEVEL RIDGE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX GETS UNDERWAY COMPLIMENTS OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE REMAINS OF THE
OFFSHORE FLOW MAY HINDER THIS FLOW ON MONDAY BUT THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
WILL FEATURE THE RETURN OF A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL PIEDMONT
TROUGH. THIS COULD HOLD TRUE EVEN LONGER IF THE OFFSHORE LOW
RESTRENGTHENS IN A TROPICAL OR HYBRID SITUATION...BUT AS OF NOW THE
NHC INDICATES A LOW CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING. AFTER FEATURING LOWER
THAN NORMAL/ISOLATED POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BRING A RETURN OF
LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND. THICKNESS
VALUES RISE FROM ABOUT 574DAM TO 577DAM FROM EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO
TUESDAY AND THEREAFTER SIGNIFYING A FURTHER SHIFT ABOVE CLIMO FOR
TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN ANY HEAVY DOWNPOUR THIS
EVENING...AND/OR PATCHY FOG/STRATUS OR SHRA/TSRA ON FRIDAY.
VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES WITH OVERALL LIGHT WINDS.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT NONE ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING ANY TERMINALS.
COULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR TONIGHT IF A SHRA MOVES
ACROSS A TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR. INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...COULD SEE SHORT-LIVED PATCHY AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS...WHICH IF
DOES OCCUR WILL DISSIPATE/MIX-OUT AFTER DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY GIVING
WAY TO VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WHICH
COULD CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD POSSIBLY CREATING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR NEAR LUMBERTON WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING FROM THE CURRENT 12-15 KNOT SPEEDS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH OF CAPE FEAR IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
A SOUTHWARD-DRIFTING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DIP SOUTHWARD LATE. SEAS
ARE GENERALLY 2 FEET WITH SOME 3-FOOTERS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM SHORE
EAST OF CAPE FEAR.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
TYPICAL OF A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH ONLY A BRIEF INTRUSION ABOVE
TEN KNOTS. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE MORE PROBLEMATIC. THE
DISSIPATING FRONT AND AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL ALMOST CALL FOR A
VARIABLE DIRECTION BUT OVERALL EAST TO EVEN NORTHEAST WINDS ON
OCCASION WILL SUFFICE. IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE MORE SEA BREEZE
DRIVEN...A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WILL BE MORE IN PLAY. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 1-3 FEET.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY BRINGS A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AS A
DECAYING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SITS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE LIES ANCHORED OFF OF LONG ISLAND. THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FATE
OF THIS BOUNDARY COULD AFFECT THE WINDS FOR A LONGER PERIOD BUT FOR
NOW WILL OPT TOWARDS MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT WASH IT OUT AND/OR TAKE IT
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO NO LONGER HAVE A LOCAL BEARING. MONDAYS WINDS
THUS REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND WILL VEER JUST SLIGHTLY AS THE HIGH OFF
THE COAST DRIFTS EAST A BIT. DEVELOPING PIEDMONT TROUGH ON TUESDAY
TO BRING AN ADDITIONAL VEER TO S OR SSW BUT WITH NO APPRECIABLE
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. WITH JUST LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND A NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE SWELL PREDOMINANT SEAS 2 TO 3 FT AT MOST.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1014 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH THIS
WEEKEND AND DRIFT FURTHER SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM THU...SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY
CONFINED TO A FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. ACROSS THE SW PORTION
OF THE WA WE HAVE A FRONT AND THERMAL TROUGH HELPING TO GENERATE
A LARGER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
MARCH EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME OTHER ISO SHOWERS HAVE
POPPED UP ON THE BOUNDARY. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH THINKING IT WILL WEAKEN SOON...OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. ALSO MODIFIED THE TEMP/DEW POINT/SKY TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS TO REFLECT OBSERVATIONS. LOWS STILL LOOK TO DROP INTO
THE LOW/MID 70S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION...THOUGH
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN DUPLIN CO...CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH THE SEABREEZE...THE FRONT AND NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SERVING AS THE TRIGGERING MECHANISMS IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...CAPES STILL AROUND 2000-3500
J/KG CAPE CONTINUING EARLY THIS EVENING. MOST MODELS...INCLUDING
MESO MODELS...INDICATE CONVECTION DIMINISHING LATE THIS EVENING
WITH DRY CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AND FOLLOWED THEIR
TRENDS. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER INDICATING PRECIP TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT IS INACCURATELY
DEPICTING PRECIP OVER MUCH OF SC AND WESTERN NC THIS EVENING...SO
HAVE DISREGARDED. TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 80S THIS EVENING WITH
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THU...WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION FRI...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG IT ACROSS INLAND
NC/SC. BETTER FORCING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN ZONES...AND EXPECT GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT GIVEN SHEAR
LESS THAN 10KT...THOUGH GIVEN GOOD INSTABILITY AND PWAT VALUES
AROUND 2 INCHES STRONGER STORMS COULD HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 16C
SUPPORT HIGHS A FEW DEG COOLER THAN THU...GENERALLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
PROVIDE AN EASTERLY FLOW...MAINTAINING HIGH MOISTURE/PRECIPITABLE
WATER LEVELS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK WITH MOST CONVECTION
BEING THERMALLY DRIVEN. THE RIDGE WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND EAST BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY
AND THE SEMI-PERMANENT PIEDMONT TROUGH REDEVELOPING BY MIDWEEK. WILL
KEEP POPS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AT 20 TO 30 PCT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY HIGH UPPER HEIGHTS...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW/MID 90S
INLAND AND MID/UPPER 80S COASTAL SECTIONS WITH LOWS MAINLY 70 TO
75 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM THU...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BISECTING THE CWA WITH
THE SEABREEZE PUSHING NORTHWEST OF OAJ AND EWN. ISOL TO SCT
CONTINUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
CONVECTION MAY IMPACT OAJ BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF EWN...PGV
AND ISO AT THIS TIME.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH OVERNIGHT AND CALM WINDS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
DECOUPLING LATE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE. HRRR AND
NARRES GUIDANCE INDICATING LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT MOS
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AFTER
07Z. FEEL MOS GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE AND WILL KEEP PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST MVFR CONDITIONS AT PGV...OAJ AND ISO LATE TONIGHT.
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 18-19Z
BRINGING PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS...AIDED BY SFC HEATING AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED NEAR THE AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SHRT WV ENERGY AND SFC BNDRY GRADUALLY PUSHING S WILL
PRODUCE SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SAT WITH BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED
OVER SRN HALF OF AREA. ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED SUN-MON.
EXPECT SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS IN
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION
OCCURS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF REDUCTION TO SUB-VFR IN ANY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM THU...NO CHANGES NEEDED. SWLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT
AND EASTERLY WINDS JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT...5 TO 12 KNOTS. SEAS 2
TO 3 FT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM NEAR
AVON TO THE PAMLICO RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SINK
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS FRI. LATEST OBS SHOW NE/E WINDS 5-10KT NORTH OF OREGON
INLET AND SW WINDS 5-15KT SOUTH...WITH SEAS 2-4FT. WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH. LIGHT WINDS EARLY
FRI BECOMING E/SE LESS THAN 10KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...WITH BROAD AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH...EXPECT A GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT
GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN OUT AND DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH A MORE SE/S FLOW TO
ENSUE TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3 FEET.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...SK/LEP
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK/CQD/LEP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
841 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH THIS
WEEKEND AND DRIFT FURTHER SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 8 PM THU...THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INTO THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND IS POSITIONED NEAR AVON WESTWARD TO
NEAR KINSTON...MAINLY INDICATED WITH A NE/E WIND SHIFT NORTH OF
THE FRONT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS CHARACTERISTICS BEHIND IT.
MEANWHILE THE SEABREEZE HAS PUSHED INLAND TO NORTHWEST OF NEW BERN
TO NEAR KENANSVILLE. MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION...THOUGH BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED IN DUPLIN CO...CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONT WITH THE SEABREEZE...THE FRONT AND NUMEROUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES SERVING AS THE TRIGGERING MECHANISMS IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...CAPES STILL AROUND 2000-3500 J/KG CAPE
CONTINUING EARLY THIS EVENING. MOST MODELS...INCLUDING MESO
MODELS...INDICATE CONVECTION DIMINISHING LATE THIS EVENING WITH
DRY CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AND FOLLOWED THEIR TRENDS.
THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER INDICATING PRECIP TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT...MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT IS INACCURATELY
DEPICTING PRECIP OVER MUCH OF SC AND WESTERN NC THIS EVENING...SO
HAVE DISREGARDED. TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 80S THIS EVENING WITH
ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THU...WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION FRI...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG IT ACROSS INLAND
NC/SC. BETTER FORCING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN ZONES...AND EXPECT GOOD
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
AT THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT GIVEN SHEAR
LESS THAN 10KT...THOUGH GIVEN GOOD INSTABILITY AND PWAT VALUES
AROUND 2 INCHES STRONGER STORMS COULD HAVE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND 16C
SUPPORT HIGHS A FEW DEG COOLER THAN THU...GENERALLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
PROVIDE AN EASTERLY FLOW...MAINTAINING HIGH MOISTURE/PRECIPITABLE
WATER LEVELS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK WITH MOST CONVECTION
BEING THERMALLY DRIVEN. THE RIDGE WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND EAST BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY
AND THE SEMI-PERMANENT PIEDMONT TROUGH REDEVELOPING BY MIDWEEK. WILL
KEEP POPS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AT 20 TO 30 PCT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WITH RELATIVELY HIGH UPPER HEIGHTS...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW/MID 90S
INLAND AND MID/UPPER 80S COASTAL SECTIONS WITH LOWS MAINLY 70 TO
75 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM THU...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BISECTING THE CWA WITH
THE SEABREEZE PUSHING NORTHWEST OF OAJ AND EWN. ISOL TO SCT
CONTINUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
CONVECTION MAY IMPACT OAJ BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF EWN...PGV
AND ISO AT THIS TIME.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH OVERNIGHT AND CALM WINDS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
DECOUPLING LATE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE. HRRR AND
NARRES GUIDANCE INDICATING LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT MOS
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AFTER
07Z. FEEL MOS GUIDANCE IS OVERDONE AND WILL KEEP PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST MVFR CONDITIONS AT PGV...OAJ AND ISO LATE TONIGHT.
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 18-19Z
BRINGING PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS...AIDED BY SFC HEATING AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED NEAR THE AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK SHRT WV ENERGY AND SFC BNDRY GRADUALLY PUSHING S WILL
PRODUCE SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SAT WITH BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED
OVER SRN HALF OF AREA. ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED SUN-MON.
EXPECT SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS IN
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION
OCCURS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF REDUCTION TO SUB-VFR IN ANY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM THU...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED FROM NEAR AVON
TO THE PAMLICO RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LIKELY STALLING NEAR THE SOUTHERN WATERS
FRI. LATEST OBS SHOW NE/E WINDS 5-10KT NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND
SW WINDS 5-15KT SOUTH...WITH SEAS 2-4FT. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT
OVERNIGHT AS FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH. LIGHT WINDS EARLY FRI
BECOMING E/SE LESS THAN 10KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...WITH BROAD AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH...EXPECT A GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT
GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN OUT AND DRIFT SOUTH AND EAST WITH A MORE SE/S FLOW TO
ENSUE TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3 FEET.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
325 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND ACROSS CENTRAL
NC TODAY AND TONIGHT... AND LINGER ACROSS COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT: VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
IS SHOWING SOME ENHANCED CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SHARPENING
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT... WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO. FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AND ARE GENERALLY MOVING EASTWARD AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS MORE TIED TO
DIFFERENTL HEATING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE APPROACHING MID
LEVEL TROUGH. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDEL ON THE CONVECTION. GIVEN INSTABILITY IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
PEAK AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE AROUND 15 TO 20
KTS... CONTINUE TO EXPECT ONLY A MARGINAL WIND THREAT. WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT... GENERALLY FROM RALEIGH WESTWARD. EAST OF
RALEIGH... MOST OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZING AND THE CONVECTION BECOMING MUCH MORE ISOLATED OR EVEN
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THUS... HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN SANDHILLS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (ESPECIALLY NOW THE
THE LEAD DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF OUR COASTAL PLAIN).
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S STILL APPEAR REASONABLE FOR HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON.
WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME MID LEVEL DRYING TAKE PLACE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. HOWEVER... THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM AND MOIST. THUS... EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S... BUT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED GENERALLY AFTER 06Z OR SO. IN ADDITION... CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY FOG FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE SOME DECENT CONVECTION
TODAY.
THURSDAY: THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH CAROLINA... POSSIBLY ALLOWING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC.
MEANWHILE WEAK MID LEVEL S/W RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER.... WE STILL MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION (MOSTLY SHOWERS)
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO OUR FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BEFORE IT DISSIPATES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. WILL HANDEL BOTH OF THESE THREATS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 NW TO THE LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE (MAYBE EVEN A FEW
MID 90S SOUTH).
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN COUPLED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS INA MODERATELY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL SUPPORT THE INITIATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS PERIOD. BASED ON TRACK OF THE THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS...BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY EXPECT COVERAGE
TO BE HIGHEST LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY THOUGH COVERAGE NO MORE THAN 30
PERCENT EXPECTED. LACK OF SHEAR SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL BE
PULSE TYPE WITH SEVERE THREAT MINIMAL. MIN TEMPS I THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF
SUN/CLOUDS. CURRENTLY FAVOR MAX TEMPS 90-95. IF CLOUDS MORE
PREVALENT...MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WOULD BE MORE IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERING SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS THIS PERIOD. GFS HAS LATCHED ONTO A MINOR S/W
LIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE LATEST ECMWF STILL SUGGEST
MODEST HEIGHT RISES IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WITH JUST A WEAK SHEAR
AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE SW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THAT A
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN THE WESTERN GULF AT THIS TIME...SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THIS ENERGY TO LIFT NEWD INTO OUR REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS STILL IN
QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL TAKE A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND GO NO HIGHER
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE AREAWIDE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CHANCE SATURDAY. IN
ANTICIPATION OF MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN SATURDAY...HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS BY 3-4 DEGREES FROM EARLIER FORECAST. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY UPPER
80S-LOWER 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM WEDNESDAY...
MODEST MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE FAR WESTERN-NW PIEDMONT AS ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY THREATEN THE WESTERN-NW
PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. MAX TEMPS NEAR 90-LOWER
90S. MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF S/WS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL CROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST-GREAT LAKES-NEW ENGLAND. THE TAIL END
OF THESE S/WS WILL BRUSH SOUTHERN VA-NORTHERN NC. WITH A MODERATELY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...THESE SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO TRIGGER/MAINTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT
STRONGER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER JET DRIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES-SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ENHANCED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW MAY AID TO ORGANIZE THE CONVECTION INTO
BROKEN BANDS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY
WEATHER HAZARDS. FOR NOW...PLAN TO GO NO HIGHER THAN 30-40 PERCENT
MONDAY AND 20-30 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS TIMING OF SYSTEMS
TIS FAR OUT A CRAP-SHOOT AT BEST.
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S AND MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM WEDNESDAY...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED
TO CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAVE FORMED GENERALLY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. HOW FAR EAST THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MAKE IT BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING IS STILL A BIT IN
QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL ONLY CARRY TEMPO GROUPS AT KGSO/KINT/KRDU FOR
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS GUSTS FROM
CONVECTION... AS MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAKING IT TO KFAY AND KRWI.
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY AT
LEAST 06-09Z ENDING ANY LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HOWEVER... GIVEN WE WILL NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS EXPECT WE WILL SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP FOR LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIP TODAY. THUS... HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP TO KGSO AND KINT FOR SUB-VFR VISBYS FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF
THURSDAY MORNING... AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS. IN ADDITION... HAVE ADDED SUB-VFR
VISBYS TO FOG PRONE KRWI GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONTINUED MOIST LOW
LEVEL/NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS COUPLED WITH CLEARING SKIES NEAR
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS...
MAINLY AT KFAY AND KRWI THU AND FRI...THEN AREA-WIDE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL POSE THE PRIMARY THREAT OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND ACROSS CENTRAL
NC TODAY AND TONIGHT... AND LINGER ACROSS COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT: VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
IS SHOWING SOME ENHANCED CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SHARPENING
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT... WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO. FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AND ARE GENERALLY MOVING EASTWARD AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS MORE TIED TO
DIFFERENTL HEATING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE APPROACHING MID
LEVEL TROUGH. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDEL ON THE CONVECTION. GIVEN INSTABILITY IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
PEAK AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE AROUND 15 TO 20
KTS... CONTINUE TO EXPECT ONLY A MARGINAL WIND THREAT. WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT... GENERALLY FROM RALEIGH WESTWARD. EAST OF
RALEIGH... MOST OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZING AND THE CONVECTION BECOMING MUCH MORE ISOLATED OR EVEN
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THUS... HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN SANDHILLS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (ESPECIALLY NOW THE
THE LEAD DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF OUR COASTAL PLAIN).
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S STILL APPEAR REASONABLE FOR HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON.
WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME MID LEVEL DRYING TAKE PLACE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. HOWEVER... THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM AND MOIST. THUS... EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S... BUT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED GENERALLY AFTER 06Z OR SO. IN ADDITION... CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY FOG FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE SOME DECENT CONVECTION
TODAY.
THURSDAY: THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH CAROLINA... POSSIBLY ALLOWING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC.
MEANWHILE WEAK MID LEVEL S/W RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER.... WE STILL MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION (MOSTLY SHOWERS)
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO OUR FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BEFORE IT DISSIPATES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. WILL HANDEL BOTH OF THESE THREATS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 NW TO THE LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE (MAYBE EVEN A FEW
MID 90S SOUTH).
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN COUPLED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS INA MODERATELY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL SUPPORT THE INITIATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS PERIOD. BASED ON TRACK OF THE THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS...BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY EXPECT COVERAGE
TO BE HIGHEST LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY THOUGH COVERAGE NO MORE THAN 30
PERCENT EXPECTED. LACK OF SHEAR SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL BE
PULSE TYPE WITH SEVERE THREAT MINIMAL. MIN TEMPS I THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF
SUN/CLOUDS. CURRENTLY FAVOR MAX TEMPS 90-95. IF CLOUDS MORE
PREVALENT...MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WOULD BE MORE IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERING SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS THIS PERIOD. GFS HAS LATCHED ONTO A MINOR S/W
LIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE LATEST ECMWF STILL SUGGEST
MODEST HEIGHT RISES IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WITH JUST A WEAK SHEAR
AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE SW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THAT A
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN THE WESTERN GULF AT THIS TIME...SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THIS ENERGY TO LIFT NEWD INTO OUR REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS STILL IN
QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL TAKE A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND GO NO HIGHER
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE AREAWIDE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CHANCE SATURDAY. IN
ANTICIPATION OF MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN SATURDAY...HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS BY 3-4 DEGREES FROM EARLIER FORECAST. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY UPPER
80S-LOWER 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY...
THE LATEST GFS HAS TRENDED WETTER ON FRIDAY AND FEATURES THE SFC
BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THE S/SE PART OF THE STATE ALONG WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
FEATURES MID LEVEL FLOW MORE NWLY VERSUS THE GFS AND IS SOMEWHAT
DRIER. GIVEN THE RECENT RUN CONSISTENCY...PREFER TO KEEP FRIDAY POPS
AROUND CLIMO...30 PERCENT OR LESS...AND IF THE RECENT GFS TRENDS
CONTINUE WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS W/SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES.
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN THE BOUNDARY LOCATION
TO OUR SOUTH...AND WITH ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE TSTM INTENSITY SHOULD ALSO BE LIMITED ON FRIDAY.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ON SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE
BEING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OLD BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SOUTH DURING THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH THE HIGH AND INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY WHILE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
PUSHED SOUTH AND WEST. AS A RESULT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR
CWA ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH AND WESTERN ZONES...WHILE
THE REST OF OUR CWA POPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS MAINTAINS A
RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WHILE THE ECMWF FEATURES NW FLOW ALONG WITH THE
PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH PERSISTING. UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT...WILL STICK CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP
CHANCES DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
AS FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR A SUBTLE DOWNWARD TREND LATE THIS WEEK AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SLIPS TO OUR SOUTH...THEN GUIDANCE SHOWS
NEAR-NORMAL LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 1410-1420M
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS (LOWS IN TEH UPPER 60S AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM WEDNESDAY...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED
TO CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAVE FORMED GENERALLY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. HOW FAR EAST THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MAKE IT BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING IS STILL A BIT IN
QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL ONLY CARRY TEMPO GROUPS AT KGSO/KINT/KRDU FOR
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS GUSTS FROM
CONVECTION... AS MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAKING IT TO KFAY AND KRWI.
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY AT
LEAST 06-09Z ENDING ANY LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HOWEVER... GIVEN WE WILL NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS EXPECT WE WILL SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP FOR LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIP TODAY. THUS... HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP TO KGSO AND KINT FOR SUB-VFR VISBYS FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF
THURSDAY MORNING... AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS. IN ADDITION... HAVE ADDED SUB-VFR
VISBYS TO FOG PRONE KRWI GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONTINUED MOIST LOW
LEVEL/NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS COUPLED WITH CLEARING SKIES NEAR
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS...
MAINLY AT KFAY AND KRWI THU AND FRI...THEN AREA-WIDE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL POSE THE PRIMARY THREAT OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...BSD/MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
215 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT AND STALL OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM WED...MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO POP FORECAST BASED
ON AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE PAMLICO SOUND REGION. THIS WAS IN
LINE WITH THE 13Z HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITY FORECAST. RAISED POPS TO
50 ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AREA AND DROPPED TO 40 INLAND. TWEAKED
QPF AS WELL. TEMP FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK.
PREV DISC...VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER ERN NC WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES
GENERALLY AOA 2 INCHES. SERIES OF WEAK SRT WAVES WILL CROSS WITH
INIT ONE LIFTING NE EARLY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE APPROACHING FROM
THE W LATE. EXPECT FAIRLY TYPICAL DIURNAL PRECIP PATTERN WITH BEST
CVRG NEAR CST THRU EARLY/MID MORNING WITH PRECIP SHIFTING AND
EXPANDING INLAND THIS AFTN WITH SEA BRZ AND APPROACHING SRT WAVE.
FOR THIS AFTN HAVE POPS IN GOOD CHC RANGE INLAND. COMBO OF INSTAB
AND SHEAR NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR STORMS THIS AFTN WHEN INSTAB PEAKS. WILL
SEE ENOUGH SUN FOR HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND TO 80S CST...SSW WINDS MAY
GUST TO AROUND 20 MPH THIS AFTN FOR THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM WED...DECENT CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY WITH
APPROACHING SRT WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT...CONT CHC POPS ALL AREAS
THRU LATE EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO REGION LATE WITH
BEST PRECIP CHCS SHIFTING CLOSER TO CST AFTER 06Z. WILL BE ANOTHER
MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. SW WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY BEACHES
IN THE EVENING THEN DIMINISH LATE AS FRONT MOVES CLOSER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FCST WITH THIS
PACKAGE. LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF PERIOD WITH
WEAK SHRT WV TROF OVER AREA MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY
THU...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL WEAK ENERGY FRI AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THERMAL TROF POSITION THU...AND THEN DROP
ACROSS ERN NC THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ON THU WITH SHRT WV TROF MOVING
OFFSHORE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTN WITH FRONT APPROACHING AND THERMAL TROF JUST INLAND...THUS
CONTINUED LOW CHC POPS. DID HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO DROP POPS ALL
BUT SRN SECTIONS FOR THU NIGHT. FRONT WILL STALL OVER SRN SECTIONS
FRI AFTN BUT MODELS INDICATE SHRT WV ACTIVITY COULD STILL PRODUCE
SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY INLAND...AND KEPT 20 POPS ALL AREAS
WITH HIGHER 30 OVER SRN SEA BREEZE ZONE WITH ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE
LIKELY THERE.
UPR RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM W-SW SAT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALLOW TEMPS TO BUILD BACK INTO LOW-MID 90S BY TUE.
FRONTAL BNDRY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO S...BUT SEA BREEZE AND
GRADUALLY VEERING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN THREAT OF ISOLATED TO
SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WED...CURRENTLY MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS FIRING
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF CWA BUT EXPECT ADDITIONAL POP UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE THREAT DIMINISHING TOWARDS MORNING AS THE
FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST. CONTINUED VCTS THROUGH THE EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG/TIMING. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION EXPECT VFR TO DOMINATE. SOME LATE NIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE
BUT EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SOME MIXING TO INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES BY
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...TYPICAL SUMMER VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FOR MOST OF PERIOD. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THU NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY...THEN STALL TO S REST OF PERIOD...BUT THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF SCT TSTMS AT MOST TAF SITES EACH DAY WITH
LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL. IN AREAS WHERE RAIN OCCURS...THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP VSBYS TO MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS UPDATE AS FCST REMAINS
ON TRACK.
PREV DISC...GRDNT WILL TIGHTEN LATER TODAY AS SFC TROF DEVELOPS WITH
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W. SSW WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS THIS MORN
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS THIS EVENING. AS COLD FRONT MOVES
CLOSER LATE TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WSW AND GRAD DIMINISH.
SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET THIS
EVENING...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL/SRN WTRS. SEAS SHLD DROP BELOW 5 FT
LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH.
LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THU AS WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES FROM NW. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THU NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WIND
SHIFT TO N AND NE OVER ALL THE WATERS BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KT.
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO S WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS TO N
AND NE OF AREA...PRODUCING GRADUALLY VEERING E TO SE WINDS OVER
WEEKEND.
LATEST LOCAL NWPS AND WW3 IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST
SEAS. HEIGHTS 3-4 FT EARLY THU WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT REST OF
PERIOD.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RSB/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CTC/RF
AVIATION...RSB/CTC/RF
MARINE...RSB/CTC/RF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
103 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT AND STALL OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM WED...MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO POP FORECAST BASED
ON AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE PAMLICO SOUND REGION. THIS WAS IN
LINE WITH THE 13Z HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITY FORECAST. RAISED POPS TO
50 ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AREA AND DROPPED TO 40 INLAND. TWEAKED
QPF AS WELL. TEMP FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK.
PREV DISC...VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER ERN NC WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES
GENERALLY AOA 2 INCHES. SERIES OF WEAK SRT WAVES WILL CROSS WITH
INIT ONE LIFTING NE EARLY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE APPROACHING FROM
THE W LATE. EXPECT FAIRLY TYPICAL DIURNAL PRECIP PATTERN WITH BEST
CVRG NEAR CST THRU EARLY/MID MORNING WITH PRECIP SHIFTING AND
EXPANDING INLAND THIS AFTN WITH SEA BRZ AND APPROACHING SRT WAVE.
FOR THIS AFTN HAVE POPS IN GOOD CHC RANGE INLAND. COMBO OF INSTAB
AND SHEAR NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR STORMS THIS AFTN WHEN INSTAB PEAKS. WILL
SEE ENOUGH SUN FOR HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND TO 80S CST...SSW WINDS MAY
GUST TO AROUND 20 MPH THIS AFTN FOR THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM / THURSDAY THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM WED...DECENT CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY WITH
APPROACHING SRT WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT...CONT CHC POPS ALL AREAS
THRU LATE EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO REGION LATE WITH
BEST PRECIP CHCS SHIFTING CLOSER TO CST AFTER 06Z. WILL BE ANOTHER
MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. SW WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY BEACHES
IN THE EVENING THEN DIMINISH LATE AS FRONT MOVES CLOSER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FCST WITH THIS
PACKAGE. LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF PERIOD WITH
WEAK SHRT WV TROF OVER AREA MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY
THU...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL WEAK ENERGY FRI AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THERMAL TROF POSITION THU...AND THEN DROP
ACROSS ERN NC THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ON THU WITH SHRT WV TROF MOVING
OFFSHORE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTN WITH FRONT APPROACHING AND THERMAL TROF JUST INLAND...THUS
CONTINUED LOW CHC POPS. DID HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO DROP POPS ALL
BUT SRN SECTIONS FOR THU NIGHT. FRONT WILL STALL OVER SRN SECTIONS
FRI AFTN BUT MODELS INDICATE SHRT WV ACTIVITY COULD STILL PRODUCE
SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY INLAND...AND KEPT 20 POPS ALL AREAS
WITH HIGHER 30 OVER SRN SEA BREEZE ZONE WITH ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE
LIKELY THERE.
UPR RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM W-SW SAT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALLOW TEMPS TO BUILD BACK INTO LOW-MID 90S BY TUE.
FRONTAL BNDRY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO S...BUT SEA BREEZE AND
GRADUALLY VEERING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN THREAT OF ISOLATED TO
SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM WED...BULK OF PRECIP HAS MISSED TAFS TO THE E HOWEVER
SOME PDS OF MAINLY MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL LIKELY CONT A
FEW MORE HRS. LATER TODAY EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP
ESPCLY INLAND WITH MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE APPROACHING. FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH VCTS LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG/TIMING. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION
EXPECT VFR TO DOMINATE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH AGAIN POSS OF
SOME LATE NIGHT FOG POSS ESPCLY DEEP INLAND WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT.
LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...TYPICAL SUMMER VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FOR MOST OF PERIOD. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THU NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY...THEN STALL TO S REST OF PERIOD...BUT THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF SCT TSTMS AT MOST TAF SITES EACH DAY WITH
LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL. IN AREAS WHERE RAIN OCCURS...THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP VSBYS TO MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS UPDATE AS FCST REMAINS
ON TRACK.
PREV DISC...GRDNT WILL TIGHTEN LATER TODAY AS SFC TROF DEVELOPS WITH
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W. SSW WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS THIS MORN
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS THIS EVENING. AS COLD FRONT MOVES
CLOSER LATE TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WSW AND GRAD DIMINISH.
SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET THIS
EVENING...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL/SRN WTRS. SEAS SHLD DROP BELOW 5 FT
LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH.
LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THU AS WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES FROM NW. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THU NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WIND
SHIFT TO N AND NE OVER ALL THE WATERS BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KT.
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO S WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS TO N
AND NE OF AREA...PRODUCING GRADUALLY VEERING E TO SE WINDS OVER
WEEKEND.
LATEST LOCAL NWPS AND WW3 IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST
SEAS. HEIGHTS 3-4 FT EARLY THU WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT REST OF
PERIOD.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RSB/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CTC/RF
AVIATION...CTC/RF
MARINE...RSB/CTC/RF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM TUESDAY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING... YIELDING WEAKENING
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE RATHER MOIST AIRMASS (WITH PW`S OF
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES) COMBINED WITH WEAK IMPULSES IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND THE LATEST RAP SHOWING A LEAST SOME LINGERING WEAK
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT... WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST. EXPECT WE WILL SEE A COMBINATION OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUD SKIES TONIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
RIBBON OF 2.0" PWAT ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE 1000-700MB TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN WEDNESDAY 18Z-06 THURSDAY WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WHILE SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE
AS BETTER DPVA SKIRTS NORTH OF THE AREA...NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE LEE SIDE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BISECTING THE AREA WILL SERVE
AS A SECONDARY TRIGGER.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...WITH MARGINAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ~15KTS AND MLCAPE 1000 TO 1500...JUST SLIGHTLY
BETTER ENVIRONMENT THAN TODAY. WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN
PREVIOUS DAY...AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH A SEVERE THREAT...BUT
CAN NOT RULE AN ISOLATED WET DOWNBURST...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FIRST
ONE OR TWO STORMS OF THE DAY OR ALONG A WELL DEFINED SFC COLD POOL.
CONVECTION/POPS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY...
THE LATEST GFS HAS TRENDED WETTER ON FRIDAY AND FEATURES THE SFC
BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THE S/SE PART OF THE STATE ALONG WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
FEATURES MID LEVEL FLOW MORE NWLY VERSUS THE GFS AND IS SOMEWHAT
DRIER. GIVEN THE RECENT RUN CONSISTENCY...PREFER TO KEEP FRIDAY POPS
AROUND CLIMO...30 PERCENT OR LESS...AND IF THE RECENT GFS TRENDS
CONTINUE WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS W/SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES.
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN THE BOUNDARY LOCATION
TO OUR SOUTH...AND WITH ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE TSTM INTENSITY SHOULD ALSO BE LIMITED ON FRIDAY.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ON SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE
BEING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OLD BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SOUTH DURING THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH THE HIGH AND INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY WHILE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
PUSHED SOUTH AND WEST. AS A RESULT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR
CWA ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH AND WESTERN ZONES...WHILE
THE REST OF OUR CWA POPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS MAINTAINS A
RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WHILE THE ECMWF FEATURES NW FLOW ALONG WITH THE
PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH PERSISTING. UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT...WILL STICK CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP
CHANCES DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
AS FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR A SUBTLE DOWNWARD TREND LATE THIS WEEK AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SLIPS TO OUR SOUTH...THEN GUIDANCE SHOWS
NEAR-NORMAL LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 1410-1420M
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS (LOWS IN TEH UPPER 60S AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90).
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...
IFR -MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO ENVELOP CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...BEFORE A RELATIVELY QUICK LIFTING AND SCATTERING THROUGH
AROUND 14Z. IN ADDITION...A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES - THE
REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION - WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NC
THROUGH MIDDAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...THE COINCIDENCE OF
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT WITH THESE FEATURES WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT KRWI BETWEEN 16Z-20Z...BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FROM THE WEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGER TROUGH BOTH
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. INDEED...A FEW SHOWER/STORM CLUSTERS WITH
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
ENE ACROSS CENTRAL NC...BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z AT TRIAD TAF SITES...TO
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z FROM KRDU EASTWARD TO KRWI AND KFAY.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST INTO THE MID-UPPER
TEENS KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE VEERING TO WESTERLY AND LESSENING
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT
THE THREAT OF STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT...SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM THE STRATUS THIS MORNING...AND IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON-
EVENING STORMS.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS...
MAINLY AT KFAY AND KRWI THU AND FRI...THEN AREA-WIDE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WILL POSE THE PRIMARY THREAT OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
233 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM TUESDAY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING... YIELDING WEAKENING
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE RATHER MOIST AIRMASS (WITH PW`S OF
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES) COMBINED WITH WEAK IMPULSES IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND THE LATEST RAP SHOWING A LEAST SOME LINGERING WEAK
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT... WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST. EXPECT WE WILL SEE A COMBINATION OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUD SKIES TONIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
RIBBON OF 2.0" PWAT ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE 1000-700MB TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN WEDNESDAY 18Z-06 THURSDAY WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WHILE SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE
AS BETTER DPVA SKIRTS NORTH OF THE AREA...NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE LEE SIDE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BISECTING THE AREA WILL SERVE
AS A SECONDARY TRIGGER.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...WITH MARGINAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ~15KTS AND MLCAPE 1000 TO 1500...JUST SLIGHTLY
BETTER ENVIRONMENT THAN TODAY. WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN
PREVIOUS DAY...AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH A SEVERE THREAT...BUT
CAN NOT RULE AN ISOLATED WET DOWNBURST...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FIRST
ONE OR TWO STORMS OF THE DAY OR ALONG A WELL DEFINED SFC COLD POOL.
CONVECTION/POPS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
THURSDAY...MID LEVEL S/W AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT EXITS CENTRAL
NC EARLY THURSDAY. W-NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL FILTER
SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR INTO OUR REGION. STRONG HEATING AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY STILL INITIATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING/EXPANDING UPPER LEVEL ANTI-
CYCLONE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. MID LEVEL INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH
WARMING ALOFT WILL ACT AS A CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE...LIMITING
CONVECTION INITIATION. GFS DEPICTS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW WHICH CAUSES
MOISTURE TO POOL ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS SCENARIO USUALLY
SUPPORTS SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...ECMWF A BIT DRIER AND SUGGEST NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED
CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY IN VICINITY OF THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND
ALONG THE INLAND-ADVANCING SEABREEZE. CURRENTLY FAVOR THE ECMWF
SOLUTION AS GFS HAS A TENDENCY TO BE TOO WET IN THIS TYPE OF
METEOROLOGICAL SITUATION. FOR NOW..WILL LIMIT POPS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAY SEE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AS
A S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FLATTENS THE RIDGE. THE LOWER HEIGHTS
OVER CENTRAL NC IN CONJUNCTION WITH AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IN VICINITY OF A SHARPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH SUGGEST A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION AREAWIDE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. CAPPED POPS AT 30 PERCENT FOR NOW AS TIMING OF
PERTURBATIONS WILL BE THE KEY TO ENHANCED CONVECTIVE CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEEKEND WHEN AFTERNOON TEMPS MAY BE
IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...
IFR -MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO ENVELOP CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...BEFORE A RELATIVELY QUICK LIFTING AND SCATTERING THROUGH
AROUND 14Z. IN ADDITION...A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES - THE
REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION - WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NC
THROUGH MIDDAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...THE COINCIDENCE OF
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT WITH THESE FEATURES WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT KRWI BETWEEN 16Z-20Z...BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FROM THE WEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGER TROUGH BOTH
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. INDEED...A FEW SHOWER/STORM CLUSTERS WITH
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
ENE ACROSS CENTRAL NC...BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z AT TRIAD TAF SITES...TO
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z FROM KRDU EASTWARD TO KRWI AND KFAY.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST INTO THE MID-UPPER
TEENS KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE VEERING TO WESTERLY AND LESSENING
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT
THE THREAT OF STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT...SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM THE STRATUS THIS MORNING...AND IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON-
EVENING STORMS.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS...
MAINLY AT KFAY AND KRWI THU AND FRI...THEN AREA-WIDE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WILL POSE THE PRIMARY THREAT OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1032 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL MN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
DISSIPATED. LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MT/ND
AND WY/SD BORDERS WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS STORMS MOVE OUT OF REGION OF FAVORED
DYNAMIC LIFT. LATEST RAP/HRRR KEEP PRECIP WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 18 UTC FRIDAY...SO MAY BE ABLE TO CUT POPS COMPLETELY
UNTIL THEN BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP 20 PERCENT GOING FOR ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
00 UTC REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN...MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH. DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ANY KIND OF MEANINGFUL
WAVE ON WATER VAPOR WITHIN GREATER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...BUT THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE
ND/MN BORDER. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...BUT FORCING/LIFT IS VERY WEAK WITH AROUND 25 KTS AT
850 HPA AND 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR BELOW 30 KTS. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH THESE STORMS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SEVERE THRESHOLDS TO BE MET.
HRRR/HOPWRF SEEM TO BE HANDLING CURRENT CONVECTION THE BEST...
MOVING IT NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING WITH A BREAK IN ACTIVITY
UNTIL AT LEAST 06 UTC. THEREAFTER...HOPWRF REMAINS DRY WHEREAS
THE HRRR BRINGS EASTERN MT/WY CONVECTION INTO THE FAR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA. FOR THIS EVENING...WILL DROP POPS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE VALLEY TO 20 PERCENT WITH HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS MN AND THEN 30
TO 50 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION. REST OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
BIG ISSUE THIS PERIOD IS SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN THREAT...WHERE/WHEN.
SHORT RANGE MODELS NOT A HUGE HELP AS ALL HAVE VARIOUS PLACEMENTS
OF QPF THRU THE PD. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS CONTINUED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AT 850 MB INTO ERN ND/SD MOVING NOW INTO WRN MN. THIS
AREA SUPPORTED SCATTERED CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN EARLIER THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THAT HAS DISSIPATED. THIS AFTN DECENT SFC HEATING
AND SUN IN WCNTRL MN AND FAR SE ND SO HAVE SEEN SOME RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS IN WCNTRL MN FROM AN AREA THAT MOVED OUT OF
EAST CENTRAL SD. COULD SEE OTHER ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION FORM LATE
AFTN-EVE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. THIS MAY CONTINUE TONIGHT...THOUGH
IDEA IS FOR A TSTM COMPLEX TO FORM IN EASTERN MT AND MOVE INTO WRN
ND THIS EVE AND MAYBE INTO ERN ND LATE TONIGHT-FRI MORNING. WITH
ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES KEPT POPS IN THE CHC RANGE AND DID NOT GO
AS HIGH AS HPC QPF (1 INCH). EXPECT HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO BE
ISOLATED AND THUS NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT OR FRI AM. FRI
AFTN-EVENING IS A BETTER RISK OF WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS..ALL DEPENDING ON WHAT REMAINS OF ANY
MORNING PRECIP. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTN WITH
MODEL MOS DEW PTS PROGGED INTO THE LOWER 70S AND HIGH TEMPS UPR
70S TO LOWER 80S PRODUCING CAPES IN THE 2-3K RANGE. THUS WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SEVERE RISK IN ERN ND/RRV 18Z FRI TO 06Z SAT. BULK
SHEAR NOT HUGE WITH BEST JET/SHEAR MORE SO IN CENTRAL-WRN NEBRASKA
INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. CHC OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN BETTER FRI
AFTN-NIGHT BUT DUE TO HUGE UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
WATCHES AND REFRESH HYDRO OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
UPPER TROUGH SHORT WAVE TO SLOWLY MOVE THRU SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
COULD PROVE TO THE BE WETTEST DAY IN NW/WCNTRL MN. CHC OF PRECIP
WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT IN ERN ND AND SUNDAY IN NW MN.
FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE A SHIFT TO A DRIER WEATHER
REGIME COULD BE IN THE OFFING...AT LEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS SOME UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. BEFORE THAT MAJOR GUIDANCE MOVES THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH AXIS THROUGH MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO...WITH POTENTIAL
DESTABILIZATION LEADING TO SOME SHRA EVEN THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS EARLY WEEK IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM LEADING
TO HIGHS ONLY NR 70 WITH LOWS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW 50 NORTHEAST
ND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARMING TREND WITH UPPER RIDGE BECOMING MORE
INVOLVED BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 724 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBJI...REMOVED VCTS/CB FROM TAFS GIVEN
LATEST CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION KEEPING KTVF/KGFK/KFAR AND KDVL DRY
THROUGH THE EVENING AND MOST OF OVERNIGHT. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH KDVL BEYOND 06 UTC...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO KEEP MENTION IN FORECAST. MODELS SUGGEST CLEARING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND WILL FILL-IN OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS...
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
952 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
LITTLE CHANGE THIS UPDATE CYCLE OTHER THAN TO INCREASE POPS TO
ENHANCE THE FORECAST IN THE VERY SHORT...NOWCAST...TIME FRAME
WHERE STORMS WERE...MEDORA AND NORTHEAST FROM THERE ON EXPECTED
TRACK.
WILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. NO NEW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
EXISTING STORMS SO FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IT WILL BE SOME TIME
BEFORE THE WESTERN STORMS MAKE IT IN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
AFTER COORDINATION WITH FGF AND ABR...WILL SEND A QUICK UPDATE TO
LOWER POPS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH THE EVENING. SLIGHT CAP NOTED ON THE BISMARCK 00
UTC SOUNDING INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CONVECTION IN MONTANA SHOULD MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH ABUNDANT CAPE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT IT
SHOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE THIS REACHES EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME 70
DEGREE DEWPOINTS SHOWING UP FROM HARVEY TO CARRINGTON. CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA. INCREASING
BULK SHEAR SHOULD ALSO MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN MONTANA IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. LATEST HRRR INDICATES A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SHORTLY AFTER 00 UTC FRIDAY. A LIMITING
FACTOR CURRENTLY IS THE MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STILL WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO CONSIDERING THE VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS REMAINING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER EAST/CENTRAL WYOMING WITH
BROAD HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES TROF WORKING TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN WITH SWRLY FLOW OVER
OVER OUR AREA. VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES NOTED UPSTREAM TRIGGERING
OFF CONVECTION OVER PTNS OF ERN MT INTO WY.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED WAVES
WILL CONTINUE THEIR APPROACH TOWARDS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR IN PLACE SO SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUES. PLENTY OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE
AREA WITH PW VALUES PUSHING 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT...STRETCHING
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...A WET DAY IS EXPECTED AS UPPER TROF CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH AND STARTS TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE SFC LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUING TO PULL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE CONTINUING THE
SEVERE THREAT. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO CONTINUES WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SLOW MOVING/TRAINING STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUING FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO BE OVER EASTERN MONTANA BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD SLOWLY WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING
EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM DAYTIME FRIDAY AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
MAIN INITIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE DAKOTAS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES. THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR HEAVY RAIN...AND
PLENTY OF CAPE AND SHEARING FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY ON SATURDAY...BUT
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHED GREATLY OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN DRIVER WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BUT
BREEZY/WINDY SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO THE STATE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW STRENGTHENS AND REMAINS OVER MANITOBA. THEN A WESTERN RIDGE
BEGINS MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A PROMISE OF
DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 70S. LOWS IN THE 55 TO 65
RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND IN THE 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS REMAIN OVER NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 0245Z/27TH...KMOT AND EAST. TSRA WERE ADVANCING
INTO THE FAR WESTERN AREAS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE WEST WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
CONVECTION EXPECT PATCHY FOG IN VERY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JPM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
724 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 724 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
00 UTC REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN...MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH. DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ANY KIND OF MEANINGFUL
WAVE ON WATER VAPOR WITHIN GREATER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...BUT THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE
ND/MN BORDER. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...BUT FORCING/LIFT IS VERY WEAK WITH AROUND 25 KTS AT
850 HPA AND 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR BELOW 30 KTS. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH THESE STORMS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SEVERE THRESHOLDS TO BE MET.
HRRR/HOPWRF SEEM TO BE HANDLING CURRENT CONVECTION THE BEST...
MOVING IT NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING WITH A BREAK IN ACTIVITY
UNTIL AT LEAST 06 UTC. THEREAFTER...HOPWRF REMAINS DRY WHEREAS
THE HRRR BRINGS EASTERN MT/WY CONVECTION INTO THE FAR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA. FOR THIS EVENING...WILL DROP POPS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE VALLEY TO 20 PERCENT WITH HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS MN AND THEN 30
TO 50 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION. REST OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
BIG ISSUE THIS PERIOD IS SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN THREAT...WHERE/WHEN.
SHORT RANGE MODELS NOT A HUGE HELP AS ALL HAVE VARIOUS PLACEMENTS
OF QPF THRU THE PD. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS CONTINUED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AT 850 MB INTO ERN ND/SD MOVING NOW INTO WRN MN. THIS
AREA SUPPORTED SCATTERED CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN EARLIER THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THAT HAS DISSIPATED. THIS AFTN DECENT SFC HEATING
AND SUN IN WCNTRL MN AND FAR SE ND SO HAVE SEEN SOME RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS IN WCNTRL MN FROM AN AREA THAT MOVED OUT OF
EAST CENTRAL SD. COULD SEE OTHER ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION FORM LATE
AFTN-EVE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. THIS MAY CONTINUE TONIGHT...THOUGH
IDEA IS FOR A TSTM COMPLEX TO FORM IN EASTERN MT AND MOVE INTO WRN
ND THIS EVE AND MAYBE INTO ERN ND LATE TONIGHT-FRI MORNING. WITH
ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES KEPT POPS IN THE CHC RANGE AND DID NOT GO
AS HIGH AS HPC QPF (1 INCH). EXPECT HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO BE
ISOLATED AND THUS NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT OR FRI AM. FRI
AFTN-EVENING IS A BETTER RISK OF WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS..ALL DEPENDING ON WHAT REMAINS OF ANY
MORNING PRECIP. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTN WITH
MODEL MOS DEW PTS PROGGED INTO THE LOWER 70S AND HIGH TEMPS UPR
70S TO LOWER 80S PRODUCING CAPES IN THE 2-3K RANGE. THUS WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SEVERE RISK IN ERN ND/RRV 18Z FRI TO 06Z SAT. BULK
SHEAR NOT HUGE WITH BEST JET/SHEAR MORE SO IN CENTRAL-WRN NEBRASKA
INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. CHC OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN BETTER FRI
AFTN-NIGHT BUT DUE TO HUGE UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
WATCHES AND REFRESH HYDRO OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
UPPER TROUGH SHORT WAVE TO SLOWLY MOVE THRU SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
COULD PROVE TO THE BE WETTEST DAY IN NW/WCNTRL MN. CHC OF PRECIP
WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT IN ERN ND AND SUNDAY IN NW MN.
FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE A SHIFT TO A DRIER WEATHER
REGIME COULD BE IN THE OFFING...AT LEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS SOME UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. BEFORE THAT MAJOR GUIDANCE MOVES THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH AXIS THROUGH MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO...WITH POTENTIAL
DESTABILIZATION LEADING TO SOME SHRA EVEN THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS EARLY WEEK IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM LEADING
TO HIGHS ONLY NR 70 WITH LOWS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW 50 NORTHEAST
ND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARMING TREND WITH UPPER RIDGE BECOMING MORE
INVOLVED BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 724 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBJI...REMOVED VCTS/CB FROM TAFS GIVEN
LATEST CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION KEEPING KTVF/KGFK/KFAR AND KDVL DRY
THROUGH THE EVENING AND MOST OF OVERNIGHT. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH KDVL BEYOND 06 UTC...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO KEEP MENTION IN FORECAST. MODELS SUGGEST CLEARING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND WILL FILL-IN OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS...
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
646 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
AFTER COORDINATION WITH FGF AND ABR...WILL SEND A QUICK UPDATE TO
LOWER POPS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH THE EVENING. SLIGHT CAP NOTED ON THE BISMARCK 00
UTC SOUNDING INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CONVECTION IN MONTANA SHOULD MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH ABUNDANT CAPE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT IT
SHOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE THIS REACHES EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME 70
DEGREE DEWPOINTS SHOWING UP FROM HARVEY TO CARRINGTON. CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA. INCREASING
BULK SHEAR SHOULD ALSO MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN MONTANA IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. LATEST HRRR INDICATES A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SHORTLY AFTER 00 UTC FRIDAY. A LIMITING
FACTOR CURRENTLY IS THE MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STILL WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO CONSIDERING THE VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS REMAINING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER EAST/CENTRAL WYOMING WITH
BROAD HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES TROF WORKING TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN WITH SWRLY FLOW OVER
OVER OUR AREA. VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES NOTED UPSTREAM TRIGGERING
OFF CONVECTION OVER PTNS OF ERN MT INTO WY.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED WAVES
WILL CONTINUE THEIR APPROACH TOWARDS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR IN PLACE SO SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUES. PLENTY OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE
AREA WITH PW VALUES PUSHING 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT...STRETCHING
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...A WET DAY IS EXPECTED AS UPPER TROF CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH AND STARTS TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE SFC LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUING TO PULL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE CONTINUING THE
SEVERE THREAT. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO CONTINUES WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SLOW MOVING/TRAINING STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUING FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO BE OVER EASTERN MONTANA BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD SLOWLY WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING
EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM DAYTIME FRIDAY AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
MAIN INITIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE DAKOTAS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES. THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR HEAVY RAIN...AND
PLENTY OF CAPE AND SHEARING FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY ON SATURDAY...BUT
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHED GREATLY OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN DRIVER WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BUT
BREEZY/WINDY SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO THE STATE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW STRENGTHENS AND REMAINS OVER MANITOBA. THEN A WESTERN RIDGE
BEGINS MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A PROMISE OF
DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 70S. LOWS IN THE 55 TO 65
RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND IN THE 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHRA AND TSRA TO MOVE
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME STORMS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND
GUSTS. SCT/NMRS SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN PATCHY AREAS
OF FOG.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
603 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME 70
DEGREE DEWPOINTS SHOWING UP FROM HARVEY TO CARRINGTON. CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA. INCREASING
BULK SHEAR SHOULD ALSO MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN MONTANA IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. LATEST HRRR INDICATES A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SHORTLY AFTER 00 UTC FRIDAY. A LIMITING
FACTOR CURRENTLY IS THE MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STILL WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO CONSIDERING THE VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS REMAINING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER EAST/CENTRAL WYOMING WITH
BROAD HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES TROF WORKING TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN WITH SWRLY FLOW OVER
OVER OUR AREA. VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES NOTED UPSTREAM TRIGGERING
OFF CONVECTION OVER PTNS OF ERN MT INTO WY.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED WAVES
WILL CONTINUE THEIR APPROACH TOWARDS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR IN PLACE SO SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUES. PLENTY OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE
AREA WITH PW VALUES PUSHING 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT...STRETCHING
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...A WET DAY IS EXPECTED AS UPPER TROF CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH AND STARTS TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE SFC LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUING TO PULL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE CONTINUING THE
SEVERE THREAT. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO CONTINUES WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SLOW MOVING/TRAINING STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUING FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO BE OVER EASTERN MONTANA BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD SLOWLY WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING
EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM DAYTIME FRIDAY AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
MAIN INITIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE DAKOTAS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES. THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR HEAVY RAIN...AND
PLENTY OF CAPE AND SHEARING FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY ON SATURDAY...BUT
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHED GREATLY OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN DRIVER WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BUT
BREEZY/WINDY SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO THE STATE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW STRENGTHENS AND REMAINS OVER MANITOBA. THEN A WESTERN RIDGE
BEGINS MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A PROMISE OF
DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 70S. LOWS IN THE 55 TO 65
RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND IN THE 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHRA AND TSRA TO MOVE
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE
IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME STORMS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND
GUSTS. SCT/NMRS SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN PATCHY AREAS
OF FOG.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1147 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION. VERY WARM AIR AND UNCOMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WEAK CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SMALL SHOWERS THAT ARE SLOWLY WINDING DOWN.
THE HRRR FINALLY PUTS AN END TO IT ALL BY 03Z...SO OTHER THAN THE
MENTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES...I KEPT IT DRY FOR THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT.
MOIST GROUND AND STILL MODERATELY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO
AREAS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH FAIRLY COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVERHEAD. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER EXISTS MAINLY ACROSS THE
REGION NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEG F OF NORMAL.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TRAP SOME AREAS
OF HIGH BASED STRATO CU AND ALTO CU...LEADING TO SLIGHTLY MILDER
TEMPS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS. MIN TEMPS WILL ONLY SHOW
ABOUT A 5 DEG F RANGE FROM THE U50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL PATTERN SAT-TUE. A
PACIFIC 500MB CLOSED LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA, THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL EVENTUALLY
FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS IT REACHES THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500MB TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PRECIP AS IT CROSSES
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, EXPECT A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST TO VERIFY REASONABLY WELL WITH INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID
DAYS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE TYPE OR TERRAIN-INDUCED
SHWRS/TSTMS GIVING WAY TO MAINLY DRY AND WARM/MUGGY NIGHTS.
CONFIDENCE IS BETTER THAN AVG IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH
RAIN CHANCES TRENDING UPWARD IN TIME, COINCIDENT WITH A SURGE OF
ANOMALOUS PWS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVING SOUTH AS THE
CLEAR SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE TO
BECOME DECOUPLED. GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE IT RAINED THIS EVENING...THE
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT
BETWEEN 08Z TO 14Z FROM PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATOCU.
JST AND BFD WILL BE THE MOST AFFECTED WITH IFR POSSIBLE WHERE THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TAF SITES ONLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BE
POSSIBLE.
ANY REDUCING RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY QUICKER TO
LIFT...WITH VFR DOMINATING BETWEEN 13 TO 15Z.
SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION
IN THE TAFS. SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE FLOW AND
STRATOCU/PATCHY FOG TO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT JST SATURDAY
MORNING.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT
THESE LIKELY WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...GENERALLY VFR...BUT LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1021 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION. VERY WARM AIR AND UNCOMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WEAK CAPE ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SMALL SHOWERS THAT ARE SLOWLY WINDING DOWN.
THE HRRR FINALLY PUTS AN END TO IT ALL BY 03Z...SO OTHER THAN THE
MENTION OF A FEW SPRINKLES...I KEPT IT DRY FOR THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT.
MOIST GROUND AND STILL MODERATELY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO
AREAS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH FAIRLY COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVERHEAD. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER EXISTS MAINLY ACROSS THE
REGION NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEG F OF NORMAL.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TRAP SOME AREAS
OF HIGH BASED STRATO CU AND ALTO CU...LEADING TO SLIGHTLY MILDER
TEMPS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS. MIN TEMPS WILL ONLY SHOW
ABOUT A 5 DEG F RANGE FROM THE U50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL PATTERN SAT-TUE. A
PACIFIC 500MB CLOSED LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA, THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL EVENTUALLY
FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS IT REACHES THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500MB TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PRECIP AS IT CROSSES
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, EXPECT A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST TO VERIFY REASONABLY WELL WITH INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID
DAYS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE TYPE OR TERRAIN-INDUCED
SHWRS/TSTMS GIVING WAY TO MAINLY DRY AND WARM/MUGGY NIGHTS.
CONFIDENCE IS BETTER THAN AVG IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH
RAIN CHANCES TRENDING UPWARD IN TIME, COINCIDENT WITH A SURGE OF
ANOMALOUS PWS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS OF THE LAST VESTIGES OF CONVECTION WILL MAKE
THEIR WAY THROUGH CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING
HOURS. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...CURRENTLY ALLOWING
FOR IFR VSBYS AT MDT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND
01Z. VICINITY SHOWERS WITH AT MOST MVFR VSBYS AT LNS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 02Z.
ANY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES AND GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH RIDGING OVER THE AREA.
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 09Z TO 14Z FROM PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATOCU. JST AND
BFD WILL BE THE MOST AFFECTED WITH IFR POSSIBLE WHERE THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN TAF SITES ONLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT
THESE LIKELY WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...GENERALLY VFR...BUT LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
800 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION. VERY WARM AIR AND UNCOMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WILL RETURN
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ANALYZED BY THE RAP IS JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. MESO ANAL
SHOWS CAPES DWINDLING AND WE HAVEN`T HAD A LIGHTNING STRIKE IN A
COUPLE OF HOURS...SO EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF DOWNPOUR OR TWO IN A
COUPLE OF LOCATIONS...THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN OVER THE NEXT 1-3
HOURS AND TURN INTO A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL NIGHT.
MOIST GROUND AND STILL MODERATELY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO
AREAS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH FAIRLY COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVERHEAD. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER EXISTS MAINLY ACROSS THE
REGION NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEG F OF NORMAL.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TRAP SOME AREAS
OF HIGH BASED STRATO CU AND ALTO CU...LEADING TO SLIGHTLY MILDER
TEMPS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS. MIN TEMPS WILL ONLY SHOW
ABOUT A 5 DEG F RANGE FROM THE U50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL PATTERN SAT-TUE. A
PACIFIC 500MB CLOSED LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA, THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL EVENTUALLY
FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS IT REACHES THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500MB TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PRECIP AS IT CROSSES
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, EXPECT A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST TO VERIFY REASONABLY WELL WITH INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID
DAYS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE TYPE OR TERRAIN-INDUCED
SHWRS/TSTMS GIVING WAY TO MAINLY DRY AND WARM/MUGGY NIGHTS.
CONFIDENCE IS BETTER THAN AVG IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH
RAIN CHANCES TRENDING UPWARD IN TIME, COINCIDENT WITH A SURGE OF
ANOMALOUS PWS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS OF THE LAST VESTIGES OF CONVECTION WILL MAKE
THEIR WAY THROUGH CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING
HOURS. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...CURRENTLY ALLOWING
FOR IFR VSBYS AT MDT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND
01Z. VICINITY SHOWERS WITH AT MOST MVFR VSBYS AT LNS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 02Z.
ANY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES AND GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH RIDGING OVER THE AREA.
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 09Z TO 14Z FROM PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATOCU. JST AND
BFD WILL BE THE MOST AFFECTED WITH IFR POSSIBLE WHERE THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN TAF SITES ONLY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT
THESE LIKELY WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...GENERALLY VFR...BUT LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
717 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION. VERY WARM AIR AND UNCOMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WILL RETURN
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ANALYZED BY THE RAP IS JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. MESO ANAL
SHOWS CAPES DWINDLING AND WE HAVEN`T HAD A LIGHTNING STRIKE IN A
COUPLE OF HOURS...SO EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF DOWNPOUR OR TWO IN A
COUPLE OF LOCATIONS...THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN OVER THE NEXT 1-3
HOURS AND TURN INTO A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL NIGHT.
MOIST GROUND AND STILL MODERATELY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO
AREAS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO MID 60S SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH FAIRLY COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVERHEAD. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER EXISTS MAINLY ACROSS THE
REGION NORTH AND EAST OF KIPT.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEG F OF NORMAL.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL TRAP SOME AREAS
OF HIGH BASED STRATO CU AND ALTO CU...LEADING TO SLIGHTLY MILDER
TEMPS ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS. MIN TEMPS WILL ONLY SHOW
ABOUT A 5 DEG F RANGE FROM THE U50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL PATTERN SAT-TUE. A
PACIFIC 500MB CLOSED LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA, THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL EVENTUALLY
FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS IT REACHES THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500MB TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR PRECIP AS IT CROSSES
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, EXPECT A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST TO VERIFY REASONABLY WELL WITH INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID
DAYS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE TYPE OR TERRAIN-INDUCED
SHWRS/TSTMS GIVING WAY TO MAINLY DRY AND WARM/MUGGY NIGHTS.
CONFIDENCE IS BETTER THAN AVG IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH
RAIN CHANCES TRENDING UPWARD IN TIME, COINCIDENT WITH A SURGE OF
ANOMALOUS PWS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR...BKN STRATO CU WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
A FEW AREAS OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT THE KBFD AND POINTS EAST ACROSS NRN PENN.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH RIDGING OVER THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT
THESE LIKELY WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...GENERALLY VFR...BUT LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
635 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF DEEP TROPICAL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY EARLY
THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREEP BACK UP DURING THE LATER PART
OF THE WEEKEND...AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BUSY EVENING FOR THE WEATHER SHOP AS A VERY ACTIVE SQUALL LINE AND
LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS SLOWLY WORKS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
HAVE CLEARED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES
AS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS THERE HAS DIMINISHED. WILL BE
WATCHING THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THINKING IS THAT
ANY FLOODING THAT ACCOMPANIES THIS LINE WILL BE OF THE MINOR-
NUISANCE VARIETY SO NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ANTICIPATED.
ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE WET MICROBURST GIVEN THE EXTREMELY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER THIS EVENING. HRRR SHOWS THINGS DIMINISHING QUICKLY AFTER
ABOUT 8-9 PM.
MIN TEMPS EARLY THURSDAY WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
NW...BUT HOLD IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE UNDER PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER AND GENERALLY A LIGHT NW WIND BEHIND THE INITIAL
CFRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SECONDARY SURGE OF SLIGHTLY COOLER /BUT MOST NOTABLY DRIER/ AIR
WILL OCCUR THURSDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PENN AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE THAT PART OF THE STATE. CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE INITIAL COLD FRONT AND BETTER DEEP LAYER LIFT BENEATH THE
THERMALLY DIRECT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 65 KT UPPER JET
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS EAST
THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS BEFORE DEEP-LAYER DRYING ADVECTS ACROSS
THE REGION.
UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LOW STRATUS...ALONG WITH SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
TO THE LAURELS AND ADJACENT WRN MTNS THURSDAY MORNING.
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RETURN TO RATHER COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NW TO THE MID 80S IN
THE FAR SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWD FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TO THE
SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z SAT. THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL
BECOME INCORPORATED INTO THE SEASONALLY FAMILIAR BERMUDA HIGH
CIRCULATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW SOLIDIFYING THE DEFINITE SUMMERTIME PATTERN. MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE DATA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING NORTH OF 30N WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AROUND 588M OVER CENTRAL
PA OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MEAN FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...EXPECT PERSISTENCE FORECAST
TO PERFORM REASONABLY WELL WITH INCREASINGLY HOT/HUMID AFTERNOONS
WITH WEAKLY FORCED ISOLD TO SCT AIRMASS CONVECTION GIVING WAY TO
WARM/MUGGY NIGHTS.
WITH SUMMERTIME RIDGING MAKING ITS PRESENCE FELT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWER 48...THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK...IN TURN...WILL BE LIFTED
NWD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER - WHICH IS VERY TYPICAL HEADING
INTO JULY. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA
ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA /MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO/ BY NEXT TUE-WED. PCPN
WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG SERIES OF ATTENDANT COLD FRONTS PUSHING EWD
THRU THE PLAINS/MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY. WPC SFC
PROGS SHOW A LEAD BOUNDARY REACHING THE UPPER OH VLY ON 30 JUNE
FOLLOWED BY A MORE WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION
BY 1-2 JULY. USING PWATS AS A GENERAL GUIDE...THE HIGHEST POPS
ARE LKLY IN THE SUN-WED TIMEFRAME WHEN MSTR AVAILABILITY WILL BE
+1SD ABOVE NORMAL. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVG IN SEEING TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ENHANCED AREA OF INSTABILITY IS KEEPING NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS
AND TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN EARLY THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR
TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PA TAF
SITES...WITH BFD IN LIFR THROUGH 21Z. THE STRONGEST LINE EXTENDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST MOVING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS THE
LINE MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN PA AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND
BECOMING FOCUSED FROM KHGR TO KMDT AND KMUI EARLY THIS EVENING.
SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING NORTHEAST PA AT 21Z WILL DRIFT
EAST AND GREATLY TRIM THE CHC FOR SHOWERS AFTER DUSK.
LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY WEAK NW FLOW FOR MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT WILL CAUSE LOWERING CIGS WITH AREAS OF
STRATUS...1-3SM VSBYS IN FOG...AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN MTNS OF PENN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY VFR WILL OCCUR DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY CFRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH BRIEF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING OVER THE AREA. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THESE LIKELY
WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
OUTLOOK...
THU...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAINLY VFR BUT SOME LINGERING SHRA
POSSIBLE AND LOW CIGS LIKELY IN THE MORNING.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT-SUN...GENERALLY VFR...BUT LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1256 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FLOW OF DEEP TROPICAL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT OVER OH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE LATE. SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR
THU AND FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREEP BACK UP DURING THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
POPS ADJUSTED UP BY 10-20 PERCENT ACROSS THE NRN MTNS WHERE A
SHIELD OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR EXPANDING THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT /FLASH FLOOD WATCH/ A FEW LAYERS OF COUNTIES TO THE SE OF
THE PRESENT WATCH COVERING NWRN PENN.
JUICY AIR WITH PWATS OF 1.5-2 INCHES AND SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F
WILL HELP TO QUICKLY INITIATE NUMEROUS MDT-HVY SHOWERS AND TSRA
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SCENT MTNS WHERE SKIES WERE
PRACTICALLY CLEAR ATTM.
CHATTED WITH NESDIS ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING TSRA CELLS AND
EXCESSIVE RAIN ACROSS SCENT PENN AND PTS NE INTO THE MID SUSQ
VALLEY. 3-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS THE POTENTIAL WATCH
AREA IS 2.5 -3.5 INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...FAIRLY SHORT
MBE VECTORS TO THE SE FOR THE BULK OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SUGGESTS THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OF 2-3 INCHES.
SFC-BASED CAPE VALUES COULD GET UP AROUND 1500 J/KG TODAY...ALONG
WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR. THUS ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
THE LIMITING FACTOR ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF THE CWA WILL BE THE
EXTENSIVE LAYERED CLOUD COVER.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NW TO THE
MID 80S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. /WITH A POTENT EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE LIFTING NE TWD THE REGION/ IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
INTO RIDGING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SLOW
PROGRESS OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. THUS WHILE TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS ON THU WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER...THERE WILL STILL BE A
CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ALSO PUSHED THE FLOOD WATCH OUT UNTIL 06Z THU. ONE CAN CUT
WESTERN AREAS OUT LATER AS NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWD FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TO THE
SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z SAT. THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL
BECOME INCORPORATED INTO THE SEASONALLY FAMILIAR BERMUDA HIGH
CIRCULATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW SOLIDIFYING THE DEFINITE SUMMERTIME PATTERN. MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE DATA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING NORTH OF 30N WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AROUND 588M OVER CENTRAL
PA OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MEAN FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...EXPECT PERSISTENCE FORECAST
TO PERFORM REASONABLY WELL WITH INCREASINGLY HOT/HUMID AFTERNOONS
WITH WEAKLY FORCED ISOLD TO SCT AIRMASS CONVECTION GIVING WAY TO
WARM/MUGGY NIGHTS.
WITH SUMMERTIME RIDGING MAKING ITS PRESENCE FELT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWER 48...THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK...IN TURN...WILL BE LIFTED
NWD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER - WHICH IS VERY TYPICAL HEADING
INTO JULY. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA
ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA /MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO/ BY NEXT TUE-WED. PCPN
WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG SERIES OF ATTENDANT COLD FRONTS PUSHING EWD
THRU THE PLAINS/MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY. WPC SFC
PROGS SHOW A LEAD BOUNDARY REACHING THE UPPER OH VLY ON 30 JUNE
FOLLOWED BY A MORE WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION
BY 1-2 JULY. USING PWATS AS A GENERAL GUIDE...THE HIGHEST POPS
ARE LKLY IN THE SUN-WED TIMEFRAME WHEN MSTR AVAILABILITY WILL BE
+1SD ABOVE NORMAL. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVG IN SEEING TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRAINING ECHOS OF MAINLY LIGHT RA/SHRA CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...KBFD CONTINUES TO DRIFT IN
AND OUT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LOWER STRATUS ACROSS THE SE
AIRFIELDS WITH KMDT AND KMUI STILL SOLIDLY IN MVFR CONDITIONS.
WEST OF A KTHV TO KIPT LINE...THROUGH CENTRAL PENN...MAINLY SCT
VFR CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
PERIODS OF MVFR TO BRIEF IFR WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSRA.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ALL HINT THAT BULK OF
PRECIPITATION (MOST LIKELY POPS AND QPF) REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 16Z. HRRR SUGGESTS
THAT CONVECTION REMAINS PRETTY MUCH CONTAINED TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH 17Z...BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BREAKS OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. FOLLOWED THIS THINKING IN THE TAFS...KEEPING
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUR OF MOST CENTRAL AND EASTERN AIRFIELDS
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIMP ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WILL SHOW FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH SHIFTING WINDS AROUND 18Z IN THE WESTERN MOST TAFS...AND
AFTER 00Z IN THE EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS.
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...RAIN WILL END...BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG
AND IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THE FRONT MAY TAKE IT/S TIME MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...SO
CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST.
GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH BRIEF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING OVER THE AREA. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THESE LIKELY
WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
OUTLOOK...
THU...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAINLY VFR BUT SOME LINGERING SHRA
POSSIBLE.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT-SUN...GENERALLY VFR...BUT LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-
037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1009 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FLOW OF DEEP TROPICAL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT OVER OH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE LATE. SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR
THU AND FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREEP BACK UP DURING THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
POPS ADJUSTED UP BY 10-20 PERCENT ACROSS THE NRN MTNS WHERE A
SHIELD OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR EXPANDING THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT /FLASH FLOOD WATCH/ A FEW LAYERS OF COUNTIES TO THE SE OF
THE PRESENT WATCH COVERING NWRN PENN.
JUICY AIR WITH PWATS OF 1.5-2 INCHES AND SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F
WILL HELP TO QUICKLY INITIATE NUMEROUS MDT-HVY SHOWERS AND TSRA
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SCENT MTNS WHERE SKIES WERE
PRACTICALLY CLEAR ATTM.
CHATTED WITH NESDIS ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING TSRA CELLS AND
EXCESSIVE RAIN ACROSS SCENT PENN AND PTS NE INTO THE MID SUSQ
VALLEY. 3-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS THE POTENTIAL WATCH
AREA IS 2.5 -3.5 INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...FAIRLY SHORT
MBE VECTORS TO THE SE FOR THE BULK OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SUGGESTS THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OF 2-3 INCHES.
SFC-BASED CAPE VALUES COULD GET UP AROUND 1500 J/KG TODAY...ALONG
WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR. THUS ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
THE LIMITING FACTOR ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF THE CWA WILL BE THE
EXTENSIVE LAYERED CLOUD COVER.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NW TO THE
MID 80S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. /WITH A POTENT EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE LIFTING NE TWD THE REGION/ IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
INTO RIDGING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SLOW
PROGRESS OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. THUS WHILE TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS ON THU WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER...THERE WILL STILL BE A
CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ALSO PUSHED THE FLOOD WATCH OUT UNTIL 06Z THU. ONE CAN CUT
WESTERN AREAS OUT LATER AS NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA SHOULD GIVE US A MAINLY
DRY DAY ON FRIDAY. THE FIRST PART OF SAT SHOULD BE DRY AS
WELL.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND...MORE IN THE
WAY OF HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.
THUS LOOKING AHEAD THROUGH THE END OF JUNE AND INTO EARLY
JULY...THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK/JET STREAM FOR NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
MIGRATORY SYSTEMS REMAINS ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...WITH A
DECIDEDLY SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER 48...AS
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SUBTROPICS BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM THE
CARIBBEAN AND SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. FLOW AROUND THE
BERMUDA HIGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PWS IN TIME WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS SAT-TUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND
UPWARD AND GENERALLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRAINING ECHOS OF MAINLY LIGHT RA/SHRA CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...KBFD CONTINUES TO DRIFT IN
AND OUT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LOWER STRATUS ACROSS THE SE
AIRFIELDS WITH KMDT AND KMUI STILL SOLIDLY IN MVFR CONDITIONS.
WEST OF A KTHV TO KIPT LINE...THROUGH CENTRAL PENN...MAINLY SCT
VFR CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
PERIODS OF MVFR TO BRIEF IFR WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSRA.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ALL HINT THAT BULK OF
PRECIPITATION (MOST LIKELY POPS AND QPF) REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 16Z. HRRR SUGGESTS
THAT CONVECTION REMAINS PRETTY MUCH CONTAINED TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH 17Z...BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BREAKS OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. FOLLOWED THIS THINKING IN THE TAFS...KEEPING
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUR OF MOST CENTRAL AND EASTERN AIRFIELDS
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIMP ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WILL SHOW FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH SHIFTING WINDS AROUND 18Z IN THE WESTERN MOST TAFS...AND
AFTER 00Z IN THE EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS.
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...RAIN WILL END...BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG
AND IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THE FRONT MAY TAKE IT/S TIME MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...SO
CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST.
GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH BRIEF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING OVER THE AREA. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THESE LIKELY
WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
OUTLOOK...
THU...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAINLY VFR BUT SOME LINGERING SHRA
POSSIBLE.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT-SUN...GENERALLY VFR...BUT LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-
037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
624 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FLOW OF DEEP TROPICAL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT OVER OH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE LATE. SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR
THU AND FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREEP BACK UP DURING THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
POPS ADJUSTED SOME ON THE EARLIER UPDATE FOR THE AREA NORTH AND
WEST OF IPT.
ANYWAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES SINCE LAST EVENING. ADDED TIOGA COUNTY
TO THE FLOOD WATCH...GIVEN TREND OF STORMS ON RADAR. DID NOT GO
ANY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FLOOD WATCH...AS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER PWATS AND LLJ STAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.
ONE COULD SEE WEAK SYSTEMS ON RADAR OVERNIGHT THAT HELP FOCUS THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS SO FAR. MUCH OF THE AREA IN AN EXCESSIVE RAIN
OUTLOOK. THE NW AREA HAS ALREADY SEEN RAINFALL IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE.
PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES ARE IN PLACE. ALSO CAPE VALUES COULD
GET UP AROUND 1500 TODAY...ALONG WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR.
THUS ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. /WITH A POTENT EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE LIFTING NE TWD THE REGION/ IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
INTO RIDGING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SLOW
PROGRESS OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. THUS WHILE TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS ON THU WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER...THERE WILL STILL BE A
CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ALSO PUSHED THE FLOOD WATCH OUT UNTIL 06Z THU. ONE CAN CUT
WESTERN AREAS OUT LATER AS NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA SHOULD GIVE US A MAINLY
DRY DAY ON FRIDAY. THE FIRST PART OF SAT SHOULD BE DRY AS
WELL.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND...MORE IN THE
WAY OF HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.
THUS LOOKING AHEAD THROUGH THE END OF JUNE AND INTO EARLY
JULY...THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK/JET STREAM FOR NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
MIGRATORY SYSTEMS REMAINS ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...WITH A
DECIDEDLY SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER 48...AS
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SUBTROPICS BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM THE
CARIBBEAN AND SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. FLOW AROUND THE
BERMUDA HIGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PWS IN TIME WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS SAT-TUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND
UPWARD AND GENERALLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRAINING ECHOS OF MAINLY LIGHT RA/SHRA CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...KBFD CONTINUES TO DRIFT IN
AND OUT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST PA OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING A
LOWER STRATUS DECK...WITH KLNS SOLIDLY IN MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. KMDT AND KIPT CONTINUE DRIFTING IN AND OUT OF VFR TO
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CLOUDS.
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST...BOTH IN TERMS OF EXTENT AND SPEED
OF THE LOWERING OF CLOUDS IN THE CENTRAL AREAS...AND ANTICIPATING
HOW WIDESPREAD THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ALL HINT THAT BULK OF
PRECIPITATION (MOST LIKELY POPS AND QPF) REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
CONVECTION REMAINS PRETTY MUCH CONTAINED TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
17Z...BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BREAKS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. FOLLOWED THIS THINKING IN THE TAFS...KEEPING MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION OUR OF MOST CENTRAL AND EASTERN AIRFIELDS UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON.
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIMP ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WILL SHOW FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH SHIFTING WINDS AROUND 18Z IN THE WESTERN MOST TAFS...AND
AFTER 00Z IN THE EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS.
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...RAIN WILL END...BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG
AND IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THE FRONT MAY TAKE IT/S TIME MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...SO
CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST.
GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH BRIEF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING OVER THE AREA. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THESE LIKELY
WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
OUTLOOK...
THU...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAINLY VFR BUT SOME LINGERING SHRA
POSSIBLE.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT-SUN...GENERALLY VFR...BUT LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-
037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
752 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE
IN THE MID STATE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40. 00Z OHX SOUNDING IS VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH A PWAT OF 1.64 INCHES AND AN LI AROUND -4.
THUS ANTICIPATED ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH
THE NIGHT. 22Z HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT
ACTIVITY...SO BASED ON ITS OUTPUT WILL ADJUST POPS SOMEWHAT WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-24 AND SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...HIGH PWAT
AIRMASS INDICATES LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. REST
OF FORECAST INCLUDING TEMPS AND CLOUDS APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
ISOLATED STORMS ARE STILL AROUND THE MID-STATE AT ISSUANCE. VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE MVFR TO IFR VIS
SETTLES IN FOR SEVERAL HOURS. KCKV AND KCSV WILL SEE THE MAJORITY
OF THESE VIS ISSUES...BUT BOTH SHOULD CLEAR UP BY 12Z FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY BUT
SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN PREVAILING LINES.
WINDS WILL BE CALM TONIGHT AND LIGHT OUT OF THE SW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
UNGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014/
DISCUSSION...
BROKEN SHOWER COVERAGE IS OBSERVED ACROSS NRN AL AND EXTENDING
INTO FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOES EXTEND FROM AR
SE THROUGH CENTRAL MS WITH PVA TO THE NE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NE THIS EVENING BUT BOTH THE HRRR AND OVERALL MODEL
MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH OVERNIGHT. DYNAMICS
ALOFT DONT SEEM TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THE BROKEN TO WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...FROM WHAT I AM SEEING...MODEL GUIDANCE MIGHT
BE A TAD TOO LOW AND WILL THEREFORE WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.
ON FRIDAY...WE WILL SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF ANTI CYCLONIC RIDGING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN THE MORNING. STILL PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK WITHIN THE MODELS. BUT...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THAT MAY LIMIT THE
CONVECTION EARLY ON. BY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL INFLEXION POINT WILL SKIRT OFF TO THE
NE. FLOW CONTAINS MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WITH IMPULSES
WITHIN. MODEL MOISTURE IS ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE TOWARD 12Z. THIS
TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.
SO ALL IN ALL OVER THE SHORT TERM...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. TSTMS WILL
OF COURSE BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THE MORE UNIFORM VERTICAL FLOW
PATTERN TENDS TO CUT DOWN ON OUR CAPE VALUES.
FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
OVER THE NEXT FEW PERIODS THROUGH SATURDAY. WHEN APPLYING THE 850 MB
TEMPS AND PARCEL MIXING...THE GFS MAX TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH.
IN FACT...WHILE I`M AT IT...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CASE IN THE
EXTENDED AS WELL. SO...WILL GO AHEAD AND UNDERCUT MAX TEMPS
THROUGHOUT THE BULK OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. AS FOR LOW TEMPS...LITTLE
DEVIATION WILL BE USED.
IN THE EXTENDED FCST...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO BUILD JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. WEAK WESTERLIES WITH HIGH HEIGHT VALUES TO PREVAIL. CAPE WILL
INCREASE AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DECREASES. STILL SEEING SOME CAP
EROSION EVERY AFTERNOON BUT POPS OF 20 PERCENT WILL BE THE MAIN
TREND. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...A WEAKENING BOUNDARY
MAY REQUIRE A 30 POP HERE AND THERE.
AGAIN...FOR THE EXTENDED TEMPS...WILL TREND TOWARD COOLER THAN THE
ADVERTISED MAXES. 96 ON MONDAY FOR BNA LOOKS TOO HIGH EVEN WITH FULL
850 MB MIXING. EURO NUMBERS LOOK MORE BELIEVABLE.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
620 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
ISOLATED STORMS ARE STILL AROUND THE MID-STATE AT ISSUANCE. VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE MVFR TO IFR VIS
SETTLES IN FOR SEVERAL HOURS. KCKV AND KCSV WILL SEE THE MAJORITY
OF THESE VIS ISSUES...BUT BOTH SHOULD CLEAR UP BY 12Z FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY BUT
SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN PREVAILING LINES.
WINDS WILL BE CALM TONIGHT AND LIGHT OUT OF THE SW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
UNGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014/
DISCUSSION...
BROKEN SHOWER COVERAGE IS OBSERVED ACROSS NRN AL AND EXTENDING
INTO FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOES EXTEND FROM AR
SE THROUGH CENTRAL MS WITH PVA TO THE NE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NE THIS EVENING BUT BOTH THE HRRR AND OVERALL MODEL
MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH OVERNIGHT. DYNAMICS
ALOFT DONT SEEM TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THE BROKEN TO WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...FROM WHAT I AM SEEING...MODEL GUIDANCE MIGHT
BE A TAD TOO LOW AND WILL THEREFORE WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.
ON FRIDAY...WE WILL SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF ANTI CYCLONIC RIDGING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN THE MORNING. STILL PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK WITHIN THE MODELS. BUT...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THAT MAY LIMIT THE
CONVECTION EARLY ON. BY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL INFLEXION POINT WILL SKIRT OFF TO THE
NE. FLOW CONTAINS MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WITH IMPULSES
WITHIN. MODEL MOISTURE IS ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE TOWARD 12Z. THIS
TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.
SO ALL IN ALL OVER THE SHORT TERM...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. TSTMS WILL
OF COURSE BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THE MORE UNIFORM VERTICAL FLOW
PATTERN TENDS TO CUT DOWN ON OUR CAPE VALUES.
FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
OVER THE NEXT FEW PERIODS THROUGH SATURDAY. WHEN APPLYING THE 850 MB
TEMPS AND PARCEL MIXING...THE GFS MAX TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH.
IN FACT...WHILE I`M AT IT...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CASE IN THE
EXTENDED AS WELL. SO...WILL GO AHEAD AND UNDERCUT MAX TEMPS
THROUGHOUT THE BULK OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. AS FOR LOW TEMPS...LITTLE
DEVIATION WILL BE USED.
IN THE EXTENDED FCST...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO BUILD JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. WEAK WESTERLIES WITH HIGH HEIGHT VALUES TO PREVAIL. CAPE WILL
INCREASE AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DECREASES. STILL SEEING SOME CAP
EROSION EVERY AFTERNOON BUT POPS OF 20 PERCENT WILL BE THE MAIN
TREND. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...A WEAKENING BOUNDARY
MAY REQUIRE A 30 POP HERE AND THERE.
AGAIN...FOR THE EXTENDED TEMPS...WILL TREND TOWARD COOLER THAN THE
ADVERTISED MAXES. 96 ON MONDAY FOR BNA LOOKS TOO HIGH EVEN WITH FULL
850 MB MIXING. EURO NUMBERS LOOK MORE BELIEVABLE.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
27
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1034 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
A VORT MAX THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING IS
NOW OVER NE TN/SW VA...AND WILL BE EXITING IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. THE NAM...RUC...AND HRRR ALL SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND 600 MB INVERSION
SEEN IN THE 12Z OHX SOUNDING SHOULD HELP LIMIT COVERAGE. WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POP GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME SLIGHT
TWEAKS WILL BE MADE TO POP/WX/QPF GRIDS. MORNING CLOUD COVER IS
KEEPING OBSERVED TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW FORECAST SO FAR...BUT
DECREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPS CLOSE TO FORECAST
HIGHS.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
400 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF SHELBY AND FAYETTE COUNTY
IN WEST TENNESSEE AT THIS TIME. WHAT IS LEFT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS JUST NORTH OF WHERE THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY TODAY AND CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY SOUTH OF THE
FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES.
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MORE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS IT
DOES IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY REDUCE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CHANCE FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT ON
THE WEATHER OVER THE MID-SOUTH WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET
SHRAS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS
TREND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT THUS WILL LEAVE MENTION OF VCSH THRU 13Z.
SOME FOG COULD STILL DEVELOP AT KMKL AND KTUP. OTHER THAN POSSIBLE
VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE FOG/SHRAS...EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 3-4Z. WILL CONTINUE
MENTION OF VCTS AT KMEM AND INTRODUCE THE WORDING AT KTUP. LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KRM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1227 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATE TO ADD POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...OVERALL MOIST CONDITIONS AND CALM WINDS
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL. THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED AND SHOULD HOLD FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
JLH
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/
MIDAFTERNOON GOES VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER WEST TN...LIFTING EAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED A FAIR AMOUNT OF CUMULUS AND
HIGHER MIDLEVEL CLOUDS. THIS HAS HAD DOWNWARD EFFECT ON DIURNAL
WARMUP...WITH WEST TN STILL IN THE 70S...EASTERN AR AND MOST OF
NORTH MS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD LIFT OUT THIS
BY MID EVENING...ENDING MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SUFFICIENT TO SUPPRESS MOST BUT LIKELY NOT ALL
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY/S RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH A MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF...PERHAPS INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF AN MCV FROM
CENTRAL PLAINS THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EMBEDDED IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN CONTINUED WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH FRIDAY.
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER GA SATURDAY. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE REDUCED
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD ON SUNDAY...LIMITING DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF NEXT WEEK...UNDER A
593DM 500MB HEIGHT RIDGE. ECMWF HAS JOINED RECENT GFS SOLUTIONS OF
SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTING TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
BY WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
MIDSOUTH DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET
SHRAS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS
TREND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT THUS WILL LEAVE MENTION OF VCSH THRU 13Z.
SOME FOG COULD STILL DEVELOP AT KMKL AND KTUP. OTHER THAN POSSIBLE
VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE FOG/SHRAS...EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 3-4Z. WILL CONTINUE
MENTION OF VCTS AT KMEM AND INTRODUCE THE WORDING AT KTUP. LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KRM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
957 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.UPDATE...STRATUS AND FOG IS SLOWLY CONTINUING WEST OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE COUNTIES. THE DENSE FOG HOWEVER IS REMAINING OVER
THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE LAKE COUNTIES. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AS WARM...MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE 850-600 MB
LEVEL SO SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR TSTORMS CONTINUES FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL WI. THE CLOUDS MAY BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT DENSE FOG AWAY
FROM THE LAKE SO NO ADVISORY EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. STILL EXPECT
AT LEAST A GRADUAL DEGRADATION OF VSBYS OVER ERN WI AS THE MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THINNER THERE.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...KMKE AND KENW WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 200-400
FEET CIGS AND VSBYS OF 1/2-1 MILES THROUGH MUCH OF FRI AM. CIGS
AND VSBYS WILL DISSIPATE BY FRI AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING SELY
FLOW SHOULD THEN INHIBIT FOG FORMATION OVER FAR SE WI. KUES WILL
SEE VSBYS FALL TO 2-4SM FOR FRI AM WITH CIGS AROUND 700-1000 FEET.
THE LOW CLOUDS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID TO LATE FRI AM
AND THEN REMAIN VFR FOR FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KMSN WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY MUCH OF FRI AM WITH POSSIBLY LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING.
NO STRATUS EXPECTED AT KMSN BUT SCT030-040 CUMULUS EXPECTED FOR
FRI AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014/
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM COULD CREEP INTO SOUTHWEST
WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON THE COVERAGE OVER
THE MKX AREA COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM LATE EVENING TO JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WEST OF
MADISON AND FOND DU LAC. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE TO 925MB
FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA ON THE NOSE OF A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET... ALONG SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED...AS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL HANG OUT
OVER IA/IL THROUGH TONIGHT. CAPE AND SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED...AROUND
600 J/KG OR LESS...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG STORMS.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING UP INTO MN AND WESTERN WI FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDS ALMOST
ALL THE WAY TO THE LAKE IN SOUTHERN WI BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR STORMS /SCATTERED COVERAGE/ WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM
MADISON AND WEST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AS CAPE...SHEAR...
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE LIMITED.
WE MAY SEE THE LOW CLOUDS RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEBCAMS SHOW AN AREA OF
FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HOVERING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
RACINE AND KENOSHA WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS FOR DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT FOG WITH AROUND 4 MILE VISIBILITY IS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE EAST OF US...WHILE A RATHER DEEP TROF WILL
BE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WE/LL BE STUCK
UNDER A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH WEAK RIPPLES
POTENTIALLY ROLLING THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF WISCONSIN AND WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. LIKE THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ON FRIDAY...THEN DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN AS WE HEAT UP ON SATURDAY AND WARM AIR RETURNS WITH THAT
WARM FRONT...STILL RATHER SMALL POPS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THIS COULD BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THE
ARRIVAL OF A RATHER POTENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF...WHILE AT
THE SURFACE WE REMAIN UNDER A VERY MOIST AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING IN A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT GIVEN THE
TIME OF DAY...LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEIR STRENGTH WOULD LIKELY
BE LIMITED. ON SUNDAY...WE/LL SEE THE COLD FRONT COME THROUGH
WITHIN A VERY HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...ONCE THE STORMS
CLEAR OUT IN THE MORNING...THE COLUMN REALLY DRIES OUT. WE/LL HAVE
TO SEE IF WE CAN MOISTEN THINGS UP A BIT MORE OR ALL THAT CAPE MAY
GO TO WASTE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
WE/LL HAVE A MEANDERING FRONT IN THE AREA WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ROLLING THROUGH AS LARGE SCALE TROF DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MORE OF A FACTOR HERE AND
WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
WE TRANSITION INTO A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. STILL SOME DIURNAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH LESS OF A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE MORE STABLE REGIME EXPECTED.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP FROM MADISON TO MONROE
TO FOND DU LAC AND WEST THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
A WARM FRONT. NOT EXPECTING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY DRIFT INLAND OVER
MAINLY RACINE AND KENOSHA TONIGHT. MILWAUKEE HAS A RISK FOR
FOG...BUT LOW STRATUS APPEARS TO BE THE GREATER RISK AT THIS TIME.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...AS MKE WILL BE ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS/FOG AREA. LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR VSBY IS
LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT.
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ON FRIDAY...THERE IS A RISK THAT ANY
LINGERING LAKE FOG/STRATUS WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO MILWAUKEE
FRIDAY MORNING. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG FOR THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEBCAMS SHOW AN AREA OF FOG AND LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS HOVERING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. A CALL TO THE
KENOSHA COAST GUARD INDICATED LOW CLOUDS IN THAT AREA RATHER THAN
FOG. HOWEVER...A WEB CAM AT WINTHROP HARBOR IL INDICATED FOG. WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE AT
THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ON FRIDAY COULD BRING FOG BACK NORTHWARD
FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WIND POINT TO NORTH POINT LIGHT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEHRING
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1231 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
CONTINUING TO MONITOR STORMS FROM KEAU-KMSN LINE ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE AND CONVERGENCE LINE. THIS CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFT. INSTABILITY IS RUNNING IN THE 1400-2000
J/KG RANGE PER LATEST RAP MODEL GUIDANCE AND LOCAL LAPS ANALYSIS.
WIND SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE SIZE HAIL IN A PULSE/MULTICELL
STORM TYPE ENVIRONMENT AS DEEP SHEAR DOES NOT SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.
WITH STORMS TRAVELING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WE ARE WATCHING
CLOSELY FOR ROTATION TO SEE IF THE UPDRAFTS CAN HARNESS THE SHEAR
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. NOT VERY CONCERNED ABOUT TORNADOES BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK OR BRIEF SPIN UP. NOT SEEING ANY ROTATION
THUS FAR WITH THESE STORMS ON RADAR.
SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL THREAT TO QUARTERS SEEMS TO BE MOST PROBABLE
WITH THESE STORMS IN CENTRAL-WESTERN WI THROUGH ABOUT 21Z BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO SRN WI. ISOLATED/SMALLER CHANCES OF WIND GUSTS ABOVE
50MPH /IF CELLS CAN BECOME LINEAR/ AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT /BUT IT IS VERY REMOTE CHANCE/. THIS AREA MAY SHIFT
SLIGHTLY WEST VIA COLD OUTFLOW IF COLD POOL IS ESTABLISHED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE ON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
LATEST RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN RESPONSE TO A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS SITUATED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND RAN SOUTHEAST NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH
SURFACE HEATING TODAY WE SHOULD SEE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
CLIMB TO AROUND 400 TO 700 J/KG. IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM...MESOSCALE MODELS ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF COLD AIR FUNNEL OR TWO NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON IF
WE CAN BUILD ENOUGH CAPE. THE 06Z NAM12 DOES INDICATE SOME NON-
SUPERCELL TORNADO SIGNAL ALONG THE WIND SHIFT SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON THIS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE APPEARS
VERY LOW. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN SO THIS IS WHERE THE
NAM IS SHOWING THE NST POTENTIAL. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT GENERATING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON SO DECIDED TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND GO WITH COVERAGE WORDING OVER THESE
AREAS. WITH COOLER AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...HIGH
TEMPERATURE OVER THESE AREAS WILL BE IN THE THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
FURTHER SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST
IOWA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER BEING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND SEEING A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AT TIMES TODAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND THE RAINFALL
EXPECTED TODAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT.
THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. 25.03Z SREF GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DENS FOG POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA NORTHEAST IOWA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE NCEP
HIRES WINDOW ARW AND NMM ARE BOTH SHOWING A SIGNAL FOR THIS DENSE
FOG AS WELL. THINKING THE LOW STRATUS OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN WOULD START TO ADVECT NORTHWEST AS FLOW AT AND JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ADVECT A VERY JUICY AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT STAYS WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY BUT THEN STARTS
TO TURN EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THESE MAY GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE BETTER SUPPORT FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...CLIMBING INTO THE 1.5 TO
2.0 INCH RANGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
THIS JUICY AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THIS AIRMASS TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4.0 TO 4.5 KM.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SHEAR THEN STARTS TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY INCREASING THE THREAT
FOR SEEING OTHER SEVERE WEATHER TYPES OUTSIDE OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 KTS. THIS WILL ALL DEPEND
ON WHEN THE TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER AND MODELS ARE A LITTLE AT ODDS
WITH THIS. LOOKING AT THE ECMWF AND GFS THERE IS A TREND TO
INCREASE THE SHEAR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TRIES TO STALL OUT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
SO THIS COULD ENHANCE THE THREAT OF SEEING SOME FLASH FLOODING.
WITH THE WET SOILS OVER THE REGION WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT VERY CLOSELY THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. IT WILL FEEL
RATHER STICKY THIS WEEKEND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW UPPER 80S BUT THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
CURRENTLY WATCHING A NEARLY STATIONARY WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING NORTH/SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL WI. SOME VIGOROUS CONVECTION
WAS NOTED IN THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...
WIDESPREAD CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA WITH BASES IN THE VFR/MVFR RANGE. BELIEVE THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON...SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAINTAINED A VCSH IN THE KLSE TAF BUT REMOVED IT
FROM THE KRST TAF. EXPECTING MVFR CLOUD BASES AT KRST/KLSE TO
EVENTUALLY BECOME VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH HELP FROM SURFACE HEATING.
SIGNAL IS INCREASING FOR SOME FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND FAIRLY MOIST/HUMID AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS. THINKING FOG
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW 3SM AT BOTH KLSE/KRST AFTER 07Z WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR STRATUS CIG AT KRST AS WELL FROM 09-13Z. PLAN ON
THESE IFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MID THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK HAS LED TO SIGNIFICANT RISES
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WHILE RAINFALL IS FORECAST THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOW THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AS A FEED
OF MOISTURE RICH AIR INCREASES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1155 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
CONTINUING TO MONITOR STORMS FROM KEAU-KMSN LINE ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE AND CONVERGENCE LINE. THIS CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFT. INSTABILITY IS RUNNING IN THE 1400-2000
J/KG RANGE PER LATEST RAP MODEL GUIDANCE AND LOCAL LAPS ANALYSIS.
WIND SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE SIZE HAIL IN A PULSE/MULTICELL
STORM TYPE ENVIRONMENT AS DEEP SHEAR DOES NOT SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.
WITH STORMS TRAVELING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WE ARE WATCHING
CLOSELY FOR ROTATION TO SEE IF THE UPDRAFTS CAN HARNESS THE SHEAR
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. NOT VERY CONCERNED ABOUT TORNADOES BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK OR BRIEF SPIN UP. NOT SEEING ANY ROTATION
THUS FAR WITH THESE STORMS ON RADAR.
SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL THREAT TO QUARTERS SEEMS TO BE MOST PROBABLE
WITH THESE STORMS IN CENTRAL-WESTERN WI THROUGH ABOUT 21Z BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO SRN WI. ISOLATED/SMALLER CHANCES OF WIND GUSTS ABOVE
50MPH /IF CELLS CAN BECOME LINEAR/ AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT /BUT IT IS VERY REMOTE CHANCE/. THIS AREA MAY SHIFT
SLIGHTLY WEST VIA COLD OUTFLOW IF COLD POOL IS ESTABLISHED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE ON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
LATEST RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN RESPONSE TO A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS SITUATED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND RAN SOUTHEAST NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH
SURFACE HEATING TODAY WE SHOULD SEE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
CLIMB TO AROUND 400 TO 700 J/KG. IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM...MESOSCALE MODELS ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF COLD AIR FUNNEL OR TWO NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON IF
WE CAN BUILD ENOUGH CAPE. THE 06Z NAM12 DOES INDICATE SOME NON-
SUPERCELL TORNADO SIGNAL ALONG THE WIND SHIFT SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON THIS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE APPEARS
VERY LOW. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN SO THIS IS WHERE THE
NAM IS SHOWING THE NST POTENTIAL. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT GENERATING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON SO DECIDED TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND GO WITH COVERAGE WORDING OVER THESE
AREAS. WITH COOLER AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...HIGH
TEMPERATURE OVER THESE AREAS WILL BE IN THE THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
FURTHER SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST
IOWA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER BEING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND SEEING A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AT TIMES TODAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND THE RAINFALL
EXPECTED TODAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT.
THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. 25.03Z SREF GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DENS FOG POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA NORTHEAST IOWA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE NCEP
HIRES WINDOW ARW AND NMM ARE BOTH SHOWING A SIGNAL FOR THIS DENSE
FOG AS WELL. THINKING THE LOW STRATUS OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN WOULD START TO ADVECT NORTHWEST AS FLOW AT AND JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ADVECT A VERY JUICY AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT STAYS WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY BUT THEN STARTS
TO TURN EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THESE MAY GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE BETTER SUPPORT FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...CLIMBING INTO THE 1.5 TO
2.0 INCH RANGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
THIS JUICY AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THIS AIRMASS TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4.0 TO 4.5 KM.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SHEAR THEN STARTS TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY INCREASING THE THREAT
FOR SEEING OTHER SEVERE WEATHER TYPES OUTSIDE OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 KTS. THIS WILL ALL DEPEND
ON WHEN THE TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER AND MODELS ARE A LITTLE AT ODDS
WITH THIS. LOOKING AT THE ECMWF AND GFS THERE IS A TREND TO
INCREASE THE SHEAR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TRIES TO STALL OUT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
SO THIS COULD ENHANCE THE THREAT OF SEEING SOME FLASH FLOODING.
WITH THE WET SOILS OVER THE REGION WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT VERY CLOSELY THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. IT WILL FEEL
RATHER STICKY THIS WEEKEND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW UPPER 80S BUT THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED THROUGH KLSE ALREADY THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD GO THROUGH KRST SHORTLY. THIS WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND
TO A LIGHT NORTH DIRECTION BUT ALSO ALLOW A LOW STRATUS DECK TO
ADVECT IN WITH IFR CEILINGS. THE 25.09Z RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWS THESE
CEILINGS COMING INTO BOTH TAF SITES BUT THEN LIFTS THE CEILINGS UP
TO MVFR BEFORE 15Z. THIS MOST LIKELY IS TOO FAST AND WILL HOLD
ONTO THE IFR CEILINGS A LITTLE LONGER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING ARE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
EAST AND SIMILAR TO WHAT THE 25.08Z HRRR SHOWS...BELIEVE THESE
WILL MISS KLSE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
CAPE BUILDS UP AGAIN AND WITH THE FRONT STILL IN THE AREA...MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD POP UP AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A VCSH
FOR BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER
CHANCES MAY BE OVER WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE FORCING FROM THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BOTH CEILINGS AND SOME FOG. SOME
INDICATIONS IN THE 25.06Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR IFR
CEILINGS...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRING ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK HAS LED TO SIGNIFICANT RISES
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WHILE RAINFALL IS FORECAST THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOW THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AS A FEED
OF MOISTURE RICH AIR INCREASES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1041 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.UPDATE...
THE FOG NEAR THE LAKESHORE IS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...SO ALLOWED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM. THERE ARE A FEW STUBBORN AREAS
NEAR THE MILWAUKEE AIRPORT AND KENOSHA AIRPORT...BUT WEBCAMS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT.
A SHORTWAVE IS ROLLING ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATE THIS
MORNING...RIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE THE OVERNIGHT COLD
FRONT STALLED. THERE ARE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
CLICKING THROUGH THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE...MANY PARAMETERS
BULLSEYE SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR BEING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL LATE THIS MORNING.
SURFACE BASED CAPE IS UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH NO CAP...THERE ARE
30 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...850MB AND
500MB WESTERLY WIND MAX... LOW LIFTED INDEX VALUES...AND
CRAVEN/BROOKS SIG SEVERE VALUE OF 25.
THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS NOON OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MKX FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOUTHERN WI WILL STILL BE IN THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET BUT UNFORTUNATELY...THE SHORTWAVE
WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE EAST BY THEN AND WE WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITHOUT ADDITIONAL STRONG
SYNOPTIC FORCING. THUS NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS AND WE ARE NOT IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE PER SPC. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE
STILL THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
DAYTIME MIXING WILL HELP TO IMPROVE VISIBILITIES LATE THIS MORNING.
THE STUBBORN SITE IS MKE AND I AM HOPEFUL THAT VIS WILL IMPROVE TO
GREATER THAN A HALF MILE AROUND 11 AM. ELSEWHERE...WEBCAMS CONTINUE
TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT.
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE NEAR A NW TO SE ORIENTED SFC BOUNDARY
ROUGHLY FROM THE DELLS THROUGH MADISON TO JANESVILLE. THIS SHOULD
FOCUS THE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE NORTHEAST.
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL WIND DOWN LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.
EXPECTING FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN NEAR THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH. DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS MAY DECREASE THE CHANCE FOR THE FOG NORTH OF
THERE COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
DENSE FOG IS ONCE AGAIN AN ISSUE IN THE EAST THIS MORNING...WITH
FOGGY CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING A COUPLE HOURS PAST DAYBREAK.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS THUS ISSUED FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.
DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN IMPROVED VISIBILITIES BY
MID-MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE NEAR A NW TO SE ORIENTED SFC BOUNDARY.
THIS SHOULD FOCUS THE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD WIND DOWN LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO IN THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE
NIGHT.
925 MB TEMPS WILL BE 3-5C COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...SO SHOULD SEE HIGH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS COULD CRACK 80 IN THE
SOUTHWEST. PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS COOLER
CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH HIGHS LIKELY STRUGGLING IN THE 60S.
COULD SEE SOME FOG AGAIN NEAR THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY DECREASE THE
CHANCE FOR THE FOG COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC WITH TIME AS TROUGH SLIDES
EAST. SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 850/925 THERMAL
TROUGH ACROSS SRN WI. INDICATIONS OF SOME WEAK RETURN WAA INTO SC
WI. WILL JUST GO WITH CHCY SHRA THERE. LIKE THE IDEA OF SWODY2
REMOVING THUNDER SO OPTED TO GO THAT ROUTE AS WELL.
FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BUILDING HEIGHTS THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF AND NAM HAVE THE
CLEANER LOOK TO THE VORTICITY PATTERN. OTHER MODELS SHOWING QUITE
A BIT OF CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTS RIDING INTO THE RIDGE. 850/925
FLOW INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH SO WARMTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
GETS GOING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING WITH THE BROAD SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW. HOWEVER WEAK IMPULSES ALONG
WITH THE UPTICK IN MLCAPE MAY BE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THE MODEL
GENERATED QPF. SO WILL HAVE CHCY POPS IN PLACE ESP IN THE WRN AND
CENTRAL CWA.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WE GET INTO MORE OF
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS
GETS A LITTLE CLOSER BUT IS STILL FURTHER WEST CLOSER TO THE
DYNAMICS OF THE 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH. 925 TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOW
20S CELSIUS...SO WARMER AND MORE HUMID. ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO ORGANIZED WITH BETTER DYNAMICS
STILL TO THE WEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF GREATEST CONCERN. STRONGER JET STREAM
ENERGY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INTERACT WITH A RATHER UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ON A FEW DIFFERENT OCCASIONS. WHILE DETAILS ON CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE NOT CERTAIN AT THIS POINT THE PATTERN FAVORS AT LEAST A
COUPLE DIFFERENT CHANCES OF POTENTIALLY STG STORMS DUE TO HIGHER
SHEAR AND CAPE PARAMETERS. IN FACT CWASP REACHES THE 60 TO 70 PCT
RANGE ON A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT OCCASIONS....ESP LATER SUNDAY AND
AGAIN MONDAY.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ECMWF HAS SURFACE/850 FRONT TO THE EAST WITH MORE OF A BROAD
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW. MEANWHILE GFS IS SHOWING A DEEPER POST
FRONTAL UPPER TROUGH WITH LINGERING PRECIP. WILL STICK WITH THE
ALLBLEND POPS AT THIS POINT WHICH ARE IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...DENSE FOG IS ONCE AGAIN AN ISSUE IN THE EAST
THIS MORNING...WITH FOGGY CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING A COUPLE HOURS
PAST DAYBREAK. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN IMPROVED
VISIBILITIES BY MID-MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
SHOULD BE NEAR A NW TO SE ORIENTED SFC BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD FOCUS
THE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
LESSER CHANCES TO THE NORTHEAST.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO IN THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN
THE NIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME FOG AGAIN NEAR THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY DECREASE THE CHANCE
FOR THE FOG COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS.
MARINE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE CHILLY WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN CONTINUED FOGGY CONDITIONS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
611 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE ON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
LATEST RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN RESPONSE TO A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS SITUATED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND RAN SOUTHEAST NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH
SURFACE HEATING TODAY WE SHOULD SEE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
CLIMB TO AROUND 400 TO 700 J/KG. IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM...MESOSCALE MODELS ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF COLD AIR FUNNEL OR TWO NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON IF
WE CAN BUILD ENOUGH CAPE. THE 06Z NAM12 DOES INDICATE SOME NON-
SUPERCELL TORNADO SIGNAL ALONG THE WIND SHIFT SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON THIS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE APPEARS
VERY LOW. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN SO THIS IS WHERE THE
NAM IS SHOWING THE NST POTENTIAL. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT GENERATING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON SO DECIDED TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND GO WITH COVERAGE WORDING OVER THESE
AREAS. WITH COOLER AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...HIGH
TEMPERATURE OVER THESE AREAS WILL BE IN THE THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
FURTHER SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST
IOWA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER BEING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND SEEING A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AT TIMES TODAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND THE RAINFALL
EXPECTED TODAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT.
THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. 25.03Z SREF GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DENS FOG POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA NORTHEAST IOWA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE NCEP
HIRES WINDOW ARW AND NMM ARE BOTH SHOWING A SIGNAL FOR THIS DENSE
FOG AS WELL. THINKING THE LOW STRATUS OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN WOULD START TO ADVECT NORTHWEST AS FLOW AT AND JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ADVECT A VERY JUICY AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT STAYS WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY BUT THEN STARTS
TO TURN EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THESE MAY GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE BETTER SUPPORT FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...CLIMBING INTO THE 1.5 TO
2.0 INCH RANGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
THIS JUICY AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THIS AIRMASS TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4.0 TO 4.5 KM.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SHEAR THEN STARTS TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY INCREASING THE THREAT
FOR SEEING OTHER SEVERE WEATHER TYPES OUTSIDE OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 KTS. THIS WILL ALL DEPEND
ON WHEN THE TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER AND MODELS ARE A LITTLE AT ODDS
WITH THIS. LOOKING AT THE ECMWF AND GFS THERE IS A TREND TO
INCREASE THE SHEAR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TRIES TO STALL OUT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
SO THIS COULD ENHANCE THE THREAT OF SEEING SOME FLASH FLOODING.
WITH THE WET SOILS OVER THE REGION WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT VERY CLOSELY THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. IT WILL FEEL
RATHER STICKY THIS WEEKEND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW UPPER 80S BUT THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED THROUGH KLSE ALREADY THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD GO THROUGH KRST SHORTLY. THIS WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND
TO A LIGHT NORTH DIRECTION BUT ALSO ALLOW A LOW STRATUS DECK TO
ADVECT IN WITH IFR CEILINGS. THE 25.09Z RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWS THESE
CEILINGS COMING INTO BOTH TAF SITES BUT THEN LIFTS THE CEILINGS UP
TO MVFR BEFORE 15Z. THIS MOST LIKELY IS TOO FAST AND WILL HOLD
ONTO THE IFR CEILINGS A LITTLE LONGER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING ARE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
EAST AND SIMILAR TO WHAT THE 25.08Z HRRR SHOWS...BELIEVE THESE
WILL MISS KLSE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
CAPE BUILDS UP AGAIN AND WITH THE FRONT STILL IN THE AREA...MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD POP UP AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A VCSH
FOR BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER
CHANCES MAY BE OVER WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE FORCING FROM THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BOTH CEILINGS AND SOME FOG. SOME
INDICATIONS IN THE 25.06Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR IFR
CEILINGS...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRING ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK HAS LED TO SIGNIFICANT RISES
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WHILE RAINFALL IS FORECAST THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOW THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AS A FEED
OF MOISTURE RICH AIR INCREASES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
356 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE
RIDING EAST ACROSS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
THIS FEATURE WAS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROBUST CONVECTION ALONG
AND TO THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILE WAS MODEST
AT 30-40 KT COMBINED WITH SBCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. A FUNNEL CLOUD
WAS OBSERVED JUST WEST OF CHEYENNE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEVERAL STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST
WY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION
EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST INTO THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
EVENING PER THE HRRR MODEL. A SEVERE TSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
9 PM MDT FOR ALL BUT CARBON COUNTY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER MODES
WILL BE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL FUNNEL CLOUDS AND
EVEN A WEAK TORNADO IN THE VICINITY OF BOUNDARY MERGERS.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING. COULD
SEE SOME SHALLOW MIST OR LIGHT FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY FOR THE
PLAINS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. LOOKING AT A
MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY WITH MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT. SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LAYING
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS DRIFTS CLOSER TO
THE WY-NE BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDING DATA SHOWS THE
700-850MB THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH AXIS OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY /SBCAPES 2500-3500 J/KG/ ALONG AND EAST OF
THE WY-NE BORDER...DEPICTED BY SPC/S DAY TWO SLIGHT RISK AREA.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. WEAKER CONVECTION
MAY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT NORTH OF A DOUGLAS TO
ALLIANCE LINE WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROVIDING MORE INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION. RISK FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...WITH ISOLATED STRONG TSTORMS POSSIBLE
FOR THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLE.
UNDER THE PRESENCE OF THE THERMAL RIDGE THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS.
700MB TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM 15C THURSDAY TO 8C FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATUERES FRIDAY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
FAIRLY QUIET IN THE LONG RANGE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY EVENING WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
MODELS SHOW A PLEASANT WEEKEND SETTING UP FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED TSTORM NORTH OF A LINE FROM DOUGLAS TO
ALLIANCE NEBRASKA...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY
AS A COOL FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL LOWER BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...BUT
IT WILL STILL BE WARM. AS WITH MOST CASES OF FROPA...CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MONDAY EVENING...SO KEPT POP AROUND
20 PERCENT. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL
MAINLY BE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY THIS EVENING...AND
THEN OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT
FROM KCYS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...INCLUDING ALL THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA TERMINALS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE SOME
WETTING RAINFALL...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AT 10 TO 15
PERCENT. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER HUMIDITIES ALONG WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1140 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014
...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...
DEW POINTS HOLDING IN LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THAN HIGH
RES SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGESTED...WHILE THEY HAVE DROPPED DOWN INTO
THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...WITH AXIS OF HIGHER DEW POINTS (50S) REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF KIOWA...PROWERS...AND BACA COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD
YIELD UP TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE. 0-6 KM SHEARS INCREASE TO AROUND 30-
40 KTS BY 00Z...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HRRR WHICH ORIGINALLY KEPT
SOUTHEAST CO DRY...HAS NOW TRENDED TOWARDS THE EARLIER RUNS OF THE
RAP13 AND NSSL WRF...GENERATING STORMS ACROSS BACA/PROWERS COUNTIES
BY 22Z...THEN MOVING THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO KS BY 02-03Z. LCLS
WILL BE A TAD ON THE HIGH SIDE...SO MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHTNING. ELSEWHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE PIKES PEAK
REGION...BUT THESE WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING
AND ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE ACROSS CO
THROUGH THE DAY. TIMING OF THE TROF SUGGESTS GREATEST LIFT WILL BE
DURING THE MORNING...AND MODELS DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS HIGH BASED...SO PRIMARY THREATS WILL
BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS...THOUGH WITH THE TROF MOVING THROUGH
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM OR TWO OVER THE MOUNTAINS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME SMALL HAIL. WITH LCLS FAIRLY
HIGH...THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ON BURN SCARS LOOKS LOW. IN
FACT...TOMORROW RAISES CONCERNS FOR DRY LIGHTNING...BUT MOISTURE
LOOKS TO MEAGER FOR COVERAGE TO WARRANT A DRY LIGHTING OUTBREAK.
NONE THE LESS...FUELS STATUS PAGE INDICATES THAT
CHAFFEE...LAKE...FREMONT...TELLER AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET
MOUNTAINS HAVE DRIED OUT SUFFICIENTLY FOR FUELS TO BE CATEGORIZED AS
CRITICAL.
MEANWHILE...DRY LINE WILL MIX EASTWARD TO THE CO/KS BORDER...PUTTING
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER JUST OVER THE EASTERN BORDER INTO KANSAS.
GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE UPPER TROF...THIS LOOKS REASONABLY AND AGREE
WITH SPC DAY2 THREAT POSITION. ANY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME PRODUCING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF RAINFALL. -KT
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014
...WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...NO BIG CHANGES IN CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH DRY AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND
PASSING UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY
NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED GENERALLY HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE. DRY AND WARM WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO KEEP ANY
CONVECTION HIGH BASED AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD SEE HIGHS
WARMING BACK INTO THE 90S TO LOWER 100S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
PLAINS. WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED BREEZY AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS...FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHICH HAVE
NOT HAVE HAD MUCH PRECIPITATION RECENTLY.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT POSSIBLE START OF THE
SW MONSOON THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST....OWNING
TO INCREASING AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITHIN WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY AND SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXPECTED
INCREASING STORM COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS.
THERE WILL BE SOME VERY HIGH BASED CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 18Z ON FRI...AND AN ISOLATED TSRA COULD GET CLOSE TO KALS
AND KCOS AFTER ABOUT 20Z. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND STORMS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE MAINLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE N-NW AT KCOS AND KPUB 22Z-23Z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
433 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MULTIPLE TROUGHS THEN
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIPRES CENTERED OVER QUEBEC BUILDS SEWD RIGHT OVER THE AREA TODAY.
EXTENSIVE MARINE STRATUS SHOWING UP ON THE 11-3.9 STLT...BUT
TRAJECTORY AND ADVANCE OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO RELEGATE MOST OF THIS
CLOUD COVER TO THE OCEAN FOR THIS AFTN. A FEW RENEGADE SHRA HAVE
CONTINUED TO POP UP THRU THE OVERNIGHT. RR QUAD OF THE JET APPEARS
TO BE AIDING. HAVE CONTINUED ISOLD SHRA IN THE FCST THRU THIS
MRNG ALL AREAS...AND OVER THE WRN 2/3 OF THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH
WEAK CONVERGENCE. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ALTHOUGH NOT IN THE FCST ATTM...THERE IS SOME EXTENSIVE RADIATION
FOG UNDER THE HIGH ACROSS NH/VT. WITH THE HIGH OVER THE AREA
TNGT...THIS MAY DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLR WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S OUTSIDE OF
THE CITY. THESE TEMPS ABOUT 8 DEGREES OR SO ABV RECORD LOWS.
THE HIGH SETS UP OVER THE AREA SAT WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL
TEMPS. NUMBERS CLOSE TO GMOS. LIGHT WIND FIELDS CONDUCIVE TO SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH REMAINS SPRAWLED ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND UNDER DEEP LAYERED RIDGING.
OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS GENERALLY A DRY...YET WARMING PATTERN.
BUILD MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES SAT NIGHT LEADING INTO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY. COULD SEE
SOME CU DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING COMBINING WITH
ONSHORE FLOW/ENHANCED SEA BREEZE FORMATION.
SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING
ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE FIRST OF MANY SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. HIGH REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE MONDAY WITH THERMAL TROUGH
SETTING UP BY MONDAY AFTN...RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER
INTERIOR AREAS WEST OF NYC METRO. PCPN THREAT WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING ALOFT.
EACH DAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHC OF PCPN WITH STRONGER SFC TROUGHS
SETTING UP COMBINING WITH BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST BY MID WEEK. 00Z MODEL RUNS
SUGGESTING COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA SOMETIME LATER WED...THOUGH
DOESNT ACTUALLY CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL LATER THURSDAY. AS
SUCH...CONTINUAL SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE LEVELS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN
PLACE WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE/DEW PTS AND TEMPS SO HAVE
INCLUSION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS ALSO GENERALLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SETTLES TO THE SOUTH...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY.
ANY EARLY MORNING STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CU TODAY. NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS WILL VEER TO
THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...WITH SEA BREEZES LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS LIGHTEN AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AS ANY CLOUDS GIVE WAY
TO CLEAR SKIES.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE SE AND SEA BREEZE
MAY BE OFF AN HOUR OR TWO.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN SOUTHERLY SEABREEZE APPROACHES AND PASSES ACROSS THE
AIRPORT.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE SE MAY BE OFF AN
HOUR OR TWO.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH MON...
.FRI NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...VFR.
.MON AND TUE...AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN TERMINALS. MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS AROUND 4 FT ON THE OCEAN WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY AS THE
PEAK WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT PASS. SEAS JUST BLW 5 FT SO NO SCA
ISSUED. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS THRU SAT. HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD PUSH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT BY TUESDAY...THOUGH STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO
REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THOUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/SEARS
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...JMC/SEARS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
358 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH
PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MULTIPLE TROUGHS THEN
IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIPRES CENTERED OVER QUEBEC BUILDS SEWD RIGHT OVER THE AREA TODAY.
EXTENSIVE MARINE STRATUS SHOWING UP ON THE 11-3.9 STLT...BUT
TRAJECTORY AND ADVANCE OF THE HIGH LOOKS TO RELEGATE MOST OF THIS
CLOUD COVER TO THE OCEAN FOR THIS AFTN. A FEW RENEGADE SHRA HAVE
CONTINUED TO POP UP THRU THE OVERNIGHT. RR QUAD OF THE JET APPEARS
TO BE AIDING. HAVE CONTINUED ISOLD SHRA IN THE FCST THRU THIS
MRNG ALL AREAS...AND OVER THE WRN 2/3 OF THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH
WEAK CONVERGENCE. TEMPS CLOSE TO GMOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ALTHOUGH NOT IN THE FCST ATTM...THERE IS SOME EXTENSIVE RADIATION
FOG UNDER THE HIGH ACROSS NH/VT. WITH THE HIGH OVER THE AREA
TNGT...THIS MAY DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLR WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S OUTSIDE OF
THE CITY. THESE TEMPS ABOUT 8 DEGREES OR SO ABV RECORD LOWS.
THE HIGH SETS UP OVER THE AREA SAT WITH SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL
TEMPS. NUMBERS CLOSE TO GMOS. LIGHT WIND FIELDS CONDUCIVE TO SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH REMAINS SPRAWLED ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND UNDER DEEP LAYERED RIDGING.
OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS GENERALLY A DRY...YET WARMING PATTERN.
BUILD MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES SAT NIGHT LEADING INTO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY. COULD SEE
SOME CU DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING COMBINING WITH
ONSHORE FLOW/ENHANCED SEA BREEZE FORMATION.
SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING
ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE FIRST OF MANY SHORTWAVES/VORT MAXES SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. HIGH REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE MONDAY WITH THERMAL TROUGH
SETTING UP BY MONDAY AFTN...RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER
INTERIOR AREAS WEST OF NYC METRO. PCPN THREAT WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING AND FORCING ALOFT.
EACH DAY WILL SEE A BETTER CHC OF PCPN WITH STRONGER SFC TROUGHS
SETTING UP COMBINING WITH BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST BY MID WEEK. 00Z MODEL RUNS
SUGGESTING COLD FRONT REACHES THE AREA SOMETIME LATER WED...THOUGH
DOESNT ACTUALLY CLEAR THE AREA UNTIL LATER THURSDAY. AS
SUCH...CONTINUAL SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE LEVELS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN
PLACE WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE/DEW PTS AND TEMPS SO HAVE
INCLUSION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS ALSO GENERALLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE COMING WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TRACKING MVFR CIGS BEHIND THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS GIVE WAY TO VFR CIGS...WITH
CLEARING LIKELY FROM EAST TO WEST THIS MORNING.
E/NE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE S-SE WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZE INFLUENCES.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH MON...
.FRI NIGHT-SUN...VFR.
.MON AND TUE...AFT/EVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT PSBL ACROSS WESTERN
TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS AROUND 4 FT ON THE OCEAN WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY AS THE
PEAK WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT PASS. SEAS JUST BLW 5 FT SO NO SCA
ISSUED. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS THRU SAT. HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPS SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD PUSH SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT BY TUESDAY...THOUGH STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO
REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED THOUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/SEARS
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...SEARS
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...JMC/SEARS
HYDROLOGY...JMC/SEARS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
442 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY
AND PASS OFFSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN LINGER OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT OVER THE AREA
MIDWEEK...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN....WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES AT THE SURFACE ALONG A LEE-SIDE
TROUGH THAT RUNS THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA SANDHILLS INTO THE
SOUTH CAROLINA PEE DEE REGION. THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES
TO TRACK A SHORT WAVE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...THIS FEATURE HEADED
EASTWARD. AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAWN WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT SOUTH OF I-16 IN
SE GEORGIA IN RESPONSE TO WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE SPARSE CONVERAGE POTENTIAL OVERALL. TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S COAST.
THE SHORT WAVE OVER NORTH GEORGIA WILL PASS OVER THE CAROLINAS
TODAY...FLATTENING THE RIDGE THAT DOMINATED ON THURSDAY AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO SURGE NEAR 2.25 INCHES OVER MUCH OF EASTERN GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA BUT EXPECT A DECENT CAP WILL PROHIBIT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THROUGH 17Z-18Z. TOUGH TO GET A READ ON THE CLOUDS
DURING MORNING INSOLATION TIME BUT PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S BY MID AFTERNOON.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STEADILY DRIFT SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...EVENTUALLY DRIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE
OVERNIGHT. THE NSSL WRF DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE SCALE
MESO-LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...PASSING OFF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST LATE...THIS SOLUTION WITH TIMING/AREAL UNCERTAINTIES IS
ACTUALLY A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO SINCE MODELS CONTINUE TO GRAB AN MCV
AND PORTRAY AN EVENTUAL SURFACE LOW OVER THE ATLC. THIS AFTERNOON...
CONVECTIVE SCALE STEERING PROFILES ARE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SE
CAROLINA...BUT 25-30 KT OVER THE ALTAMAHA RIVER REGION OF GEORGIA
WHERE A 700 MB WIND MAX IS PROGGED.
OUR MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT IS LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PROGS.
NORTH OF I-16...THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISMS WILL BE BOUNDARIES
AS THE SURFACE LOW DROPS IN FROM THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS. ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER FROM WET MICROBURSTS IN MULTICELL CLUSTERS MAY
OCCUR WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN BOTH SPACE AND TIME. WE BUMPED POPS
UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE ALONG THE PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW IN SE
SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONGER CAPPING TO THE SOUTH
OF I-16 TODAY COULD KEEP CONVECTION ISOLATED GIVEN THE FACT THE
SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED INTO COASTAL SE GEORGIA. THE DEEP
LAYERED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS TODAY ARE TYPICAL OF THE
SEASON...POOR ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN 700 MB AND 500 MB...DIABATIC
HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCING UPDRAFTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS AN EAST-WEST BAND OF MID LEVEL OMEGA PASSES OVER
SOUTH CAROLINA. WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LIKELY MORE PREVALENT
THAN SEVERE WEATHER...WILL HIGHLIGHT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
ACCORDINGLY TODAY.
OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS AND TSTMS CHANCES MAY LINGER ALONG COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH OF BEAUFORT AS A LIGHT FLOW SHIFTS
ONSHORE AND DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTS. CONVECTION OVER SE GEORGIA
SHOULD DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT IF NOT SOONER...DEPENDENT ON
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE WAVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST WHILE A LARGE AND EXPANSIVE AREA OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS ALONG THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS
THIS OCCURS...MID LVL RIDGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY
FLATTEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE FIRST OF TWO H5 SHORTWAVES
ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
BETWEEN THE SFC LOW ALONG THE COAST AND THE SFC HIGH TO THE
NORTH...AND THUS THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PWATS NEAR
2.0 INCHES. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE SHORTWAVE
SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. A FEW AREAS COULD REACH THE MID 90S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
SUNDAY...ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
MID LVL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT THE SHORTWAVE
WILL BE IN A WEAKENING STAGE AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHILE
PWATS REMAIN NEAR 2.0 INCHES DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY AS THE SFC LOW WILL BE
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST. LOW-END CHANCE POPS WILL
THEREFORE REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SATURDAY...RANGING IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.
MONDAY...WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND/OR OFFSHORE
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
COAST. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS POTENTIALLY DRYER CONDITIONS GIVEN THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...LOW-END CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WHILE PWATS
REMAIN AROUND 2.0 INCHES DURING PEAK HEATING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE COULD INCREASE FURTHER INLAND AS SFC FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE
AND A SEABREEZE SHIFTS INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LATEST
1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S
ALONG THE COAST TO LOW/MID 90S WELL INLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REPRESENT MORE OF A SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES OF SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE WEEK AS A SFC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AS A PARENT SFC LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
COULD LINGER INTO LATE WEEK AS THE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA
WHILE PWATS PEAK NEAR 2.0 INCHES. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OFF THE SFC
SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS A FEW DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH
OVERALL HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL TYPICALLY RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WARMEST ALONG THE
COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. SHOWERS AND TSTMS CHANCES LOOK TO BE RAMPING UP AFTER
MID AFTERNOON TODAY AND CONVECTIVE RAINS COULD LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WE HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS AFTER 20Z AND THE 12Z TAF
RELEASE WILL BE INVESTIGATING WHETHER TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE REQUIRED
AND IF A SLIGHTLY EARLIER INITIATION TIME FRAME IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN
18Z AND 20Z. STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH
WILL REDUCE VSBYS UNDER THE CELL BASES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF CEILING/VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...SURFACE FLOW WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT. WINDS MAY BECOME
LIGHT/VRBL NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE TONIGHT. THE MAIN
RISK TO MARINERS WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF TSTMS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRES DRIFTS OFFSHORE BY DAWN ON SATURDAY. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS
SOUTH AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. SEAS SHOULD THEN
GRADUALLY BUILD ON TUESDAY BUT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
IN OFFSHORE WATERS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
331 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING OVER THE CASCADES
SHOULD HELP TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. NAM SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AROUND MID-MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN EARLY START TO
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THAT AREA. HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS SHOWERS ALSO
DEVELOPING AROUND THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN OVER IDAHO FALLS. AS THE
SHORTWAVE NEARS...CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
IDAHO AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST PWATS OF
0.8 TO 1.0 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY
OCCUR. WIND SPEEDS SUPPORT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOW-END OF THE SCALE.
LINGERING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TOMORROW MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING
MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY ZONAL AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SETTLE IN. STARTING
MONDAY...MODELS SHOWING STRONG SUPPORT FOR UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE PAC NW AND AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS
SHOULD KEEP US DRY AND WARM THROUGH MID-WEEK. BY THEN THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON PRECIP. HINSBERGER
&&
.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT MOVING OVER
SOUTHEAST IDAHO AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE PLAIN THIS
MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP VICINITY OF KSUN
18Z...KIDA 19Z...AND KPIH AND KBYI 20Z AND CONTINUES THROUGH 02Z.
SATURDAY...THE STORM TRACK BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR KSUN EARLY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. RS
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
WEST WINDS ALOFT WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS NOON TIME THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
.05 TO .20 INCH POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
HIGHLAND AREAS. SATURDAY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE STORM TRACK
WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN THE SALMON-CHALLIS
FOREST AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. RS
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING IDZ021.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
355 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
355 AM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS MAINLY ON DAILY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AND WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WELL AS DENSE
FOG WITHIN A FEW MILES OF LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING.
SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS EVENING AND ACROSS WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT. AN ELONGATED SURFACE LEE-TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...MOVING EAST TONIGHT WITH DEEPER
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE
TO NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORT WAVE WHICH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A STATIONARY FRONT GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST AS SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS...BRINGING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE AXIS OF
500-600 J/KG MUCAPE DEVELOPS...THOUGH LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT
FOCUS IS NOTED EXCEPT PERHAPS LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER NORTHEAST
IL. FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK...AND ANY STORMS WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR MASS (1.50-1.75" IN UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS) WILL
LIKELY AGAIN SUPPORT FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHERE
SHOWERS/STORMS FORM. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN SPOTS
INTO THIS EVENING...THOUGH WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF
DIURNAL INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. AS FOR DENSE FOG EXTENDING SEVERAL
MILES INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH MID MORNING
AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM...AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST DECREASING
FETCH OVER THE LAKE WATERS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN LAKE
COOLING MAINLY ALONG THE ILLINOIS SHORE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
TEMPERATURES INLAND REACHING THE MID-80S IN MOST LOCATIONS AND
PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA.
GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN TOO COOL OF LATE IN THE ABSENCE OF LAKE
COOLING/PRECIP.
WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SLOWLY EAST. ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY...THOUGH
WITH PERHAPS A BETTER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY HOWEVER...AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE FAIRLY WARM AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE LESS CLOUD
COVER IS LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. MODEL THERMAL FIELDS INDICATE UPPER
80S/NEAR 90 DEGREES...WITH PUSH OF HIGHER DEW POINT TEMPS NOTED AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS IS A
LITTLE LOWER THAN AVERAGE HOWEVER...GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CLOUDS/PRECIP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST.
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS 100+ KT UPPER
JET SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY ACROSS MN/IA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY SPREAD INTO IL LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING A GREATER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
GRADUAL COOL-DOWN APPEARS IN STORE FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT
WEEK...AS LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND
EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH TEMPS IN THE 75-80 RANGE WITH LAKE BREEZES BU
WED/THURS.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LIFR/VLIFR CIGS/VIS THROUGH 13Z-14Z.
* SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY...POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE.
* CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BUT CONTINUED THE
CURRENT 13Z END TIME AS HIGH SUN ANGLE AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY QUICK DISSIPATING OF BOTH THE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...THOUGH SOME TWEAKS TO TIMING CAN BE EXPECTED
AS TRENDS EMERGE. CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL
DROP PRIOR TO SUNRISE IS LOW AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND ITS POSSIBLE
VIS MAY DROP BELOW 1SM.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-12KTS BY LATE MORNING AND
LIKELY A BIT STRONGER ACROSS NORTHWEST IL AND AT RFD WHERE SOME
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE IL SHORE
BUT HOW FAR INLAND IT MOVES IS UNCERTAIN AND WHILE MAINTAINED A
SOUTHEAST WIND AT ORD...REMOVED A SHIFT TO MORE EASTERLY THOUGH IT
IS STILL POSSIBLE.
TSRA POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE GREATEST MAINLY WEST
OF THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS AND ADDED VCTS AT RFD. BUT IF THIS
ACTIVITY FORMS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHRA
AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS INTERACTIONS WITH THE LAKE BREEZE
OR ACTIVITY FORMING ON THE LAKE BREEZE ITSELF. CONFIDENCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA TRENDS FOR THE CHICAGO TERMINALS IS LOW ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN JUST THE VCSH BUT CONTINUED MENTION THROUGH MID EVENING.
CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH FOR LIFR/VLIFR CIGS/VIS THROUGH 13Z-14Z...MEDIUM FOR END
TIME.
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOW FOR LAKE BREEZE
REACHING ORD/MDW.
* MEDIUM FOR SHRA/TSRA...LOW FOR COVERAGE/LOCATION. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND MVFR OR LOWER CIGS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
313 AM...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES
WILL DEEPEN TODAY AND LIFT INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND
THEN BECOME STATIONARY AS IT DEEPENS FURTHER. DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC
AS IT SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THIS WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...THE GRADIENT
WILL SLOWLY TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY THEN SOUTHERLY SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS
GRADUALLY INCREASING. THE GRADIENT WOULD SUGGEST THERE COULD BE
PERIODS OF WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS BUT GIVEN
HOW COLD THE OPEN WATERS REMAIN...THERE COULD BE A RATHER SHARP
MARINE INVERSION PREVENTING SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS FROM
REACHING THE SURFACE.
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS SPEEDS
INCREASE AND TURN SOUTHEASTERLY. HOWEVER...THE FOG MAY JUST BE
BLOWN FURTHER NORTH AND REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST SIDE AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...THUS AN EXTENSION IN BOTH TIME AND LOCATION
IS POSSIBLE WITH THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 PM FRIDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
340 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 322 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014
SHORT TERM...Today and tonight...
Same hot and humid airmass...same forecast. Not much of a shift in
the forecast overall. Poor model performance with respect to
convection and a summer regime dominated with afternoon/evening
convection chances results in poor confidence for any one period.
The result is a lot of low chance pops...some slight chances for
more isolated events...throughout the forecast. Only distinct
event in the short term centers around a wave out to the west that
is progged to move across the Miss River Valley later today/this
evening. It is a little ahead of schedule so far as it moves
through IA. But just as it does, the convection is becoming weaker
and spreading out. Timing of the wave over Central Illinois this
afternoon will be the driving impact to shower/ts chances. For
now, remaining at chance pops, and dropping the pops into the
overnight hours. More hot and humid tomorrow with increasing
chance for showers and thunderstorms into the afternoon as a trof
digs in aloft amplifying the flow over the CONUS and placing ILX
in increasingly swrly flow aloft.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday...
Same deepening low aloft finally starting to show more significant
cyclogenesis at the sfc...but still slow to move. As the first
frontal boundary/sfc trof ripples around the low, stormy late
Saturday will carry over into Sunday. After a brief break, the
more significant cold front/dynamic lift is progged to pass
through Monday night/Tuesday. Timing is still a bit of a question
mark with the recent model performance. But should the pattern
shift and cold front move through as expected, cooler temperatures
should be in place for Tuesday through Thursday, as region is
impacted with northwesterly flow. Cool temps are short lived,
however, as heat continues to build under the ridging in the
desert SW.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1133 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
Not too many changes to the aviation forecast through Friday.
Continued to have MVFR visibilities between 08Z-14Z with patchy
fog. HRRR model continues to keep low clouds below 1k ft and dense
fog closer to Lake MI tonight as light se flow keeps this more
widespread fog ne of central IL. Scattered to broken mid/high
clouds to affect central IL especially at PIA tonight with ese
winds 4-7 kts. A warm front over central IL is slowly lifting ne
tonight (as east winds veer ese) and will lift ne of central IL
Fri morning as 1020 mb high pressure over MI drifts into the eastern
Great Lakes and mid Atlantic states Friday afternoon. SSE winds
increasing to 9-13 kts after 14Z/9 am and 5-8 kts after sunset
Fri. Scattered to broken cumulus clouds 3.5-5k ft develop after
14Z Friday and have VCTS from 20-01Z due to diurnally driven
isolated convection especially sw of BMI and CMI where deeper
tropical moisture will be.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1254 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
824 PM CDT
ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...FORTUNATELY THIS
AFTERNOONS CONVECTION WAS EVEN FURTHER WEST/SOUTHWEST. THE BIGGER
CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING IS ON THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS ALREADY
BEGUN TO MOVE INLAND. MANY LOCATIONS OF LAKE SHORE DRIVE HAVE
ALREADY OBSERVED VISBILITIES DOWN TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER
MILE...AND BASED ON THE WIND FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN ADDTL POINTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE WILL LIKELY DIP DOWN
TOWARDS ONE QUARTER MILE TONIGHT. DESPITE THE WEAK SFC RIDGE
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND WINDS EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY...DENSE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR THE LAKESHORE
LOCATIONS UNTIL JUST AFT DAYBREAK FRI. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FAR
EASTERN LAKE COUNTY IL COULD CONTINUE TO SEE DENSE FOG THRU
MIDDAY.
FURTHER INLAND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING VISIBILIITES DIP TO ARND
ONE HALF MILE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL SLOWLY COOL TO
AROUND 60 TO THE LOW 60S. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME WEAK MID-LVL
VORTICITY PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWFA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD HELP TO BRING THE CURRENT ISOLATED
CONVECTION FROM IOWA EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH
INTO THE CWFA.
BEACHLER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
306 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...FOG AND STRATUS TRENDS...AND WITH
WARMING TEMPS.
RELATIVELY QUIET AFTERNOON AS CURRENTLY NO PRECIP ACROSS THE
CWA...AND WHILE FOG STRATUS HOLD RIGHT ALONG THE SHORE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. STRATUS FROM LAST NIGHT WAS SLOW TO DIMINISH
TODAY...SLOWLY ERODED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRATUS...STABLE CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT THIS TIME WITH LATEST
RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTING A DECENT AMOUNT OF CIN STILL IN PLACE.
THESE STABLE CONDITIONS CAN BE NOTED WITH LITTLE OR NO DIURNAL CU
ON SATELLITE. WHERE THERE IS CU DEVELOPMENT IS RIGHT ALONG AND TO
THE SOUTH OF A LINGERING BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM JUST SOUTH OF
THE QUAD CITIES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE BLOOMINGTON AREA...AND THEN
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO
POOL IN THE UPPER 60S RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WITH WEAK MODERATE
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL
WEAK SUPPORT PER APPROACHING WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE IN THE PRESENCE
OF THIS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS AIDING IN THIS CU DEVELOPMENT AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT CAN BE
NOTED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FAIRBURY TO GIBSON CITY ILLINOIS AREA.
ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALONG THIS LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WITH STEERING FLOW...ALTHOUGH RATHER WEAK...TAKING
ANY DEVELOPMENT EAST INTO THE FAR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA. WITH
COVERAGE LIKELY REMAINING ISOLATED AND BRIEF...DID REDUCE POPS AND
KEPT THEM CONFINED TO THESE AREAS. WEAK FORCING AND EVEN WEAKER
SHEAR WILL RESULT IN NO ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY SEVERE
WEATHER NOT LIKELY. DECENT MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE COULD RESULT IN
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. BEST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR FURTHER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT DOES REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA.
DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN
FOR THE SAME GENERAL AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON TO LINGER AND MOVE EAST THIS EVENING...AND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIFTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH
IOWA INTO WISCONSIN POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH WAA WING.
MARINE FOG AND STRATUS CAN BE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...AND WITH
MOST IF NOT ALL OF IT GONE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. DESPITE SOME
FURTHER EROSION ON THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS/FOG...THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SIMILAR SITUATION TO UNFOLD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THIS
MOISTURE MOVING BACK INLAND...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS QUICK THIS
EVENING WITH WEAKER FLOW IN PLACE. MORE CONFIDENT WITH THE STRATUS
MOVING BACK INLAND...BUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO THE EXTENT OF
THE DENSE FOG. COULD SEE IT BEING MORE STRATUS DOMINATED WITH
AREAS OF FOG AND ONLY PATCHY DENSE FOG OBSERVED. THE MORE DENSE
FOG SHOULD STAY CLOSER TO THE LAKE...BUT WITH FOG STILL LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
RISING HEIGHTS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH RIDGE AXIS
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MOISTURE/TEMP ADVECTION RAMPING
UP. LIFTING BOUNDARY AS WELL AS SOME WEAKER ENERGY DRAWING CLOSE
TO THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY COULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PRIMARILY REMAINING CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. OVERALL COVERAGE/DURATION SHOULD BE
LOW...WITH ONLY BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECTED. LIMITED COVERAGE
TO THIS PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WARM DAY WITH
MID TO UPPER 80S LIKELY.
THE WEEKEND WILL OBSERVE FURTHER WARMING CONDITIONS WITH FURTHER
MOISTURE ADVECTION BRINGING DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 BACK TO THE CWA.
SIMILAR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH
INCREASING FLOW/ENERGY ALOFT FROM THE WEST. BETTER SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND LOWER LEVEL FOCUS ARRIVE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WITH
THIS BETTER FOCUS DID INCREASE TO HIGHER CHANCE POPS. DESPITE
WEAKER FLOW REMAINING...THIS BETTER FOCUS IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS COULD PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO
REMAINING A POSSIBILITY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* LIFR/VLIFR CIGS/VIS THROUGH 13Z-14Z.
* SOUTHEAST WINDS TOAY...POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE.
* CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING BUT CONTINUED THE
CURRENT 13Z END TIME AS HIGH SUN ANGLE AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY QUICK DISSIPATING OF BOTH THE
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...THOUGH SOME TWEAKS TO TIMING CAN BE EXPECTED
AS TRENDS EMERGE. CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL
DROP PRIOR TO SUNRISE IS LOW AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND ITS POSSIBLE
VIS MAY DROP BELOW 1SM.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-12KTS BY LATE MORNING AND
LIKELY A BIT STRONGER ACROSS NORTHWEST IL AND AT RFD WHERE SOME
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE IL SHORE
BUT HOW FAR INLAND IT MOVES IS UNCERTAIN AND WHILE MAINTAINED A
SOUTHEAST WIND AT ORD...REMOVED A SHIFT TO MORE EASTERLY THOUGH IT
IS STILL POSSIBLE.
TSRA POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE GREATEST MAINLY WEST
OF THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS AND ADDED VCTS AT RFD. BUT IF THIS
ACTIVITY FORMS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHRA
AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS INTERACTIONS WITH THE LAKE BREEZE
OR ACTIVITY FORMING ON THE LAKE BREEZE ITSELF. CONFIDENCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA TRENDS FOR THE CHICAGO TERMINALS IS LOW ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN JUST THE VCSH BUT CONTINUED MENTION THROUGH MID EVENING.
CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH FOR LIFR/VLIFR CIGS/VIS THROUGH 13Z-14Z...MEDIUM FOR END
TIME.
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...LOW FOR LAKE BREEZE
REACHING ORD/MDW.
* MEDIUM FOR SHRA/TSRA...LOW FOR COVERAGE/LOCATION. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND MVFR OR LOWER CIGS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
230 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IS SPRAWLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA.
SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH FLOW WILL INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...TOPPING OUT IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING UP FRESH 70
DEGREE DEWPOINTS OVER THE STILL COOL WATERS OF THE LAKE AND COULD
PROLONG THE FOG THREAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SPREAD THE AREAS
OF FOG BACK TO THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD BY
MIDWEEK.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002 UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 PM FRIDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1133 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 855 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
Forecast is doing well this evening and main update is to remove
evening period with isolated showers and thunderstorms ending at
dusk, similar to past couple of evenings. Patchy fog should develop
again after midnight as temperatures settle toward dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s. Though not expecting the widespread dense fog
over the northeast counties that occurred early this morning.
Latest HRRR model run shows low clouds below 1k ft and dense fog
staying closer to Lake MI in northeast IL by Chicago metro tonight
due to light southeast winds instead of northeast winds last
night. Winds to remain light to calm tonight with frontal boundary
lingering over central IL.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1133 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
Not too many changes to the aviation forecast through Friday.
Continued to have MVFR visibilities between 08Z-14Z with patchy
fog. HRRR model continues to keep low clouds below 1k ft and dense
fog closer to Lake MI tonight as light se flow keeps this more
widespread fog ne of central IL. Scattered to broken mid/high
clouds to affect central IL especially at PIA tonight with ese
winds 4-7 kts. A warm front over central IL is slowly lifting ne
tonight (as east winds veer ese) and will lift ne of central IL
Fri morning as 1020 mb high pressure over MI drifts into the eastern
Great Lakes and mid Atlantic states Friday afteroon. SSE winds
increasing to 9-13 kts after 14Z/9 am and 5-8 kts after sunset
Fri. Scattered to broken cumulus clouds 3.5-5k ft develop after
14Z Friday and have VCTS from 20-01Z due to diurnally driven
isolated convection especially sw of BMI and CMI where deeper
tropical moisture will be.
07
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday: Typical summer-like weather
expected across central and southeast Illinois over the next
couple of days. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms,
diurnally driven, are expected each afternoon and evening. There
is little in the way of focus for organized convection aside from
weak surface boundaries. Peak diurnal instability should be around
1500 j/kg, but bulk shear values will average less than 20 kts
(sometimes much less). High temperatures will climb well into the
80s.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday: A couple stronger waves are
forecast to arrive during the period, currently moving through
Sunday, and again Monday into Tuesday. These waves, and associated
stronger wind fields, will be accompanied by a more organized risk
of showers and thunderstorms. Can`t rule out a severe risk with
these waves, but not enough confidence in the details to hit too
hard on the threat right now. Temperatures will cool a bit behind
the second wave as upper heights fall and flow turns northwesterly,
with daytime highs falling to around 80 degrees by midweek.
BAK
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
409 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
WEAK WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA AND WILL LIFT NORTH
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
AFFECT THE AREA. A SIGNIFICANT NEG TILT TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SECOND UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND ALSO
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE MON AND TUE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
WEAK MCV IN SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH 15Z. THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS CLUSTER MOVING NORTHWARD...BUT MAINLY STRATIFORM PRECIP
TRAILS BEHIND.
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL TRANSITION EAST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXPECTING THE SOUTHWEST
TO DRY OUT PAST 18Z. HAVE THE HIGHER POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AS THE DEEPER FORCING MOVES INTO EASTERN IOWA WITH THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE. NO SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE STATE
AND IS EVIDENT THE DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE REMAINS PRESENT PER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT DSM. WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS RANGING AROUND
12KFT TO NEAR 13KFT AND THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.50 TO
1.75 INCH RANGE...SO STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS TODAY AS GENERALLY THE 1 TO NEAR 3 INCH PER
HOUR RATES ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE STORM PROGRESSION LOOKS TO BE
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS TODAY PER CORFIDI VECTORS...SO THE HEAVY RAIN
OVER ONE AREA SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED UNLESS BACK-BUILDING OCCURS LIKE
THURSDAY. THE 27.05Z HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...ALBEIT ROUGHLY TWO HOURS TOO FAST...BUT LEANED TOWARD THE
HRRR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR POP/WX TRENDS.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF IA WHERE
THERE IS STRONGER FORCING. NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF IA. THE COLD
FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH THE STGRENGTHENING JET STREAM...OVER 80
KTS, WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION BOTH SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE BODY
OF THE ZONES. DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER THICKNESS...OVER 4 KM AND PWAT
VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS PRETTY HIGH WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE NEAR 5000 J/KG. THOUGH NOT PERFECT, THE
HODOGRAPHS ARE FAVORABLE WITH DECENT SHEAR...BOTH SPEED AND
DIRECTION...IN PLACE.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ON TAP FROM THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
ON. THE COLDEST AIR WILL MISS IA TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE COOLING
TREND DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL LAST ALL THAT LONG EITHER. DON`T
EXPECT TO SEE MORE THAN TWO OR THREE DAYS BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...27/06Z
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING SINCE 00Z ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF IA ALTHOUGH LOCALLY DEGRADED NEAR HEAVIER
RAINFALL. CONVECTION HAS SHOWN LITTLE PREDICTABILITY OUTSIDE OF
SHORT TERM TRENDS HOWEVER SO HAVE ONLY ACCOUNTED FOR PRECIP
IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST TO VARIED DEGREES DEPENDING ON
CONFIDENCE. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD INTO
FRI EVENING...BUT WILL ADDRESS THAT ONCE CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
MAY ALSO SEE MVFR FOG DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
NEAR AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN APPRECIABLE RAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
WITH HIGH PWATS AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF WEATHER SYSTEM...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS FAIRLY HIGH. RAINFALL OF THE PAST DAY
OR SO HAS MOISTENED SOILS SO THE FFG IS DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL COME SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THE CURRENT PATTERN GIVES AT LEAST SOME RISK TO THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MS JUN 14
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS JUN 14
AVIATION...SMALL
HYDROLOGY...MS JUN 14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
408 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
An MCS was moving east along the Nebraska-Kansas line near Oberlin
after 2 am CDT. Just enough of a capping inversion was in place as
indicated by the 00 UTC KDDC sounding to prevent deeper convection
farther south through the Trego county and Hays areas as the recent
HRRR runs had indicated. A surface low pressure near Las Animas
contributed to the roughly 8 mb surface pressure gradient and
resultant 15 to 20 knot sustained southeast winds. Temperatures were
in the low 70s with mid 60`s dew points across the majority of the
area.
On the larger scale, the water vapor satellite showed a vorticity
center now over southeast Utah with some evidence of deeper lifting
across Arizona and New Mexico. The 00 UTC objective analysis
indicated the nose of the upper jet moving through Arizona while a
plume of mid level warm air at 16-18 degrees C was centered across
the panhandles, southeast CO and extreme sw Kansas. Boundary layer
moisture transport was evident as well from the southern Texas high
plains through western Nebraska and layer precipitable water values
were in excess of an inch and a half east of a Dighton to
Meade line.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
The primary focus will be on convective chances, impacts and timing
over the next 24 hours. In the nowcast phase, only light showers and
brief thunderstorm activity seems reasonable at this point north of
highway K96 given the recent radar trends. Once this activity moves
east of Hays, convective activity will not be likely again until the
afternoon at earliest, and probably late in the afternoon when
forcing for ascent comes into play from the approaching wave. By
mid afternoon sufficient destabilization may occur for surface based
storms near the moisture axis and dryline intersection somewhere in
west central Kansas leading to supercell development and initial
hail and tornado threats. A risk for several supercells then
forming clusters and a cold pool becomes more likely farther east
into central Kansas during the evening hours. Heavy efficient rain
producing storms are expected this evening given the high
precipitable water values and a few areas of flooding may occur.
Heaviest rainfall is likely farther east of the areas through the
highway 83 corridor that have been the wettest most recent weeks.
Additionally due to some of the convective allowing model`s more
progressive convective complex forecasts, we`ve decided to not issue
a flood watch at this time. Pops are tapered off by 12 UTC Saturday
across central Kansas. Overnight lows will not likely fall below the
upper 60s across most of the forecast area.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
By Saturday morning, a fairly strong negatively tilted shortwave
trough will be located from Montana into the central High Plains.
This trough will lift into the Midwestern states by Saturday night.
There could be some lingering showers and thunderstorms over central
and south central Kansas Saturday morning as an expected MCS that
develops tonight will be exiting the region. Will continue to carry
some early morning chance pops from Hays through Larned and Medicine
Lodge but these should be winding down during the morning. As the
wave moves out, a frontal boundary will push east into central
Kansas during the day. If this front is able to push east of central
Kansas by the afternoon, any storms that develop during the peak
heating hours may be east of my area. The models suggest that the
front could linger into south central Kansas during the afternoon so
will continue some chance pops in that area until early evening.
Sunday through Sunday night should be quiet as the shortwave
continues to lift out and the stronger westerly flow aloft shifts
north somewhat. Another shortwave trough will move east through the
northern Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. This pushes another
cold front south across western Kansas early Monday which stalls out
from southeast Colorado into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles into
southeast Kansas Monday night.
The models continue to show an upper level ridge building over the
western states by Tuesday while an upper level low pressure system
tracks slowly east and northeast into eastern Canada. It appears
that the central High Plains will come under a upper level northwest
flow pattern with the frontal boundary at the surface remaining
quasi stationary just to our south. With this pattern providing low
level moist upslope flow from Kansas into the eastern slopes of the
Rockies, we could see an increase in rain and thunderstorm chances
as afternoon convection off the Front Range gets organized into
evening and night time MCS complexes.
Later in the week, the upper ridge shifts east out over the northern
and central Plains which should bring warmer temperatures to the
Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 118 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
An MCS will continue eastward into north central Kansas through the
overnight hours, with some potential for southward development
through KHYS as recent HRRR model runs have indicated. Current radar
trends are indicating this trend as radar echoes are developing
south of Colby through Scott City. Southerly surface winds will
become more windy by late morning before severe convection develops
in the late afternoon along a warm front across west central Kansas
with good chances for terminal impacts through the evening hours
Friday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 90 69 86 67 / 30 80 20 10
GCK 94 66 87 66 / 50 70 10 10
EHA 96 64 90 66 / 10 10 10 10
LBL 98 66 88 67 / 20 40 10 10
HYS 89 70 86 67 / 60 80 30 10
P28 89 70 85 70 / 40 70 40 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Russell
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
351 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
07Z water vapor imagery and profiler data shows a well defined MCV
over the MO river. Meanwhile a linear MCS is progressing east
through southern NEB. A longer wavelength upper trough could be seen
in water vapor from the four corners northwest into ID. Surface
observations show low pressure in the lee of the Rockies with higher
MSLP pressure over the MS river valley. A moist airmass remains over
the forecast area with dewpoint temps in the lower 70s.
The forecast for this morning will be a battle between the MCS to
the west and warming mid level temps. Regional radar imagery has
shown newer development to the south of the convection has had a
difficult time intensifying and the HRRR/RAP have been gradually
backing off on bringing the storms very far into north central KS.
Think that subsidence just to the west of the MCV over the MO river
may also play a roll in how far convection moves east. In short the
latest RAP forecast soundings indicate that by 12Z 700 MB temps will
warm to around 12C capping a surface parcel and what little elevated
instability there is gradually diminishing. Will carry a chance for
precip across the northern and northwest counties this morning, but
the overall forcing does not look strong enough for storms to move
across the whole area. At this time the afternoon hours look to be
mostly dry as models show little if any forcing. Of course the one
potential wrench in the works would be any MCV generated by the
storms in southwestern NEB. Will have to keep an eye on this. Think
south winds will become breezy today as the pressure gradient
increases. Highs today will be dependent on how deep the boundary
layer mixes. Think the NAM forecast soundings may be a little to
conservative in mixing the boundary layer and have continued with
highs in the mid to upper 80s.
For tonight, precip chances are anticipated to increase through the
night as the longer wavelength trough moves east into KS and NEB. It
appears as though storms would likely initiate along the foothills
of the Rockies and then move east again. With this in mind have the
higher POPs spreading west to east mainly during the overnight
hours. There is the potential for storms to be little more organized
as deep layer shear increases with the stronger upper level winds
associated with the trough overspread the area. 0-6KM shear
increases to around 40KTS. With MUCAPE possibly as high as 2000
J/kg, will be to watch out for some strong winds and hail. Lows
could be a little tricky if rain does move in. For now have trended
lows down a degree or so across north central KS where precip is
most likely . Otherwise have kept the forecast lows generally around
70.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
By Saturday morning, the negatively-tilted trough axis is progged
to be over central KS, expected to slowly lift northeast through
the afternoon and evening. Operational guidance is in good
agreement on an MCS shifting eastward into northeast KS early Saturday
morning with high confidence and precipitation chances inserted
for this period. Based on a weakening trend of instability as well
as warming h7 temps near 12Z, current thinking is that the complex
will track southeast and weaken during the mid morning hours.
Storms in the morning period may be capable of gusty winds and
small hail. What is more uncertain is how quickly, if at all, the
atmosphere can recover for severe convection in the afternoon.
There is some indication of clearing across north central areas in
the afternoon, allowing the boundary layer to quickly destabilize
with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/KG. A more favorable wind profile
appears by late afternoon with 0-6 KM shear profiles near 35 kts.
As storms fire ahead of dryline over central KS by late afternoon,
north central areas would see the best chance for severe storms.
Large hail and damaging winds would be the main hazards. Should
expect the thunderstorms to cluster and push eastward through the evening.
Activity clears the CWA Sunday morning, setting up for a very humid
and warm afternoon. Warm and moist air pooling northward will raise
high temperatures to the low 90s. Heat indices may reach the low
100s during the late afternoon. The departing upper trough to the
north will usher a cold front across Nebraska, and possibly northern
portions of the CWA, dependent on model of choice. Increasing wind
shear profiles with instability approaching 4500 J/KG would highly
suggest any storm able to develop near the Nebraska border likely to
be severe by late afternoon and early evening. Storm chances
increase overnight as a line of convection is shunted south and east
over northern and far eastern portions of KS.
On Monday afternoon, 00Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF vary somewhat on
placement of the cold front however do agree on the frontal boundary
bisecting the CWA by late afternoon. Decent convergence along the
boundary will result in organized convection, some severe, as high
surface instability peaks over 4000 J/KG and 0-6 KM shear is near 35
kts.
From Tuesday onward, northwest flow ensues as ridging slowly pushes
over the Inter-mountain West. The frontal boundary is expected to
stall over central or southern KS as weak embedded shortwave troughs
pass through the region. Off and on chances for storms are expected
with perhaps a more organized system bringing more widespread activity
late Wednesday into Thursday.
After highs in the low 90s and lows in the lower 70s through Monday,
the cool front will only lower readings slightly to the upper 80s
for highs and upper 60s for lows through Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 351 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
Have amended the forecast to remove VCTS through much of the
period and back off on MVFR CIGS. Latest radar trends show no
southward development of convection with the MCS moving east along
the KS/NEB state line. Additionally the RAP and HRRR have trended
in keeping storms mainly along the state line. Because of this
confidence in storms near the terminals is pretty marginal. Also
do not have a great deal of confidence in MVFR CIGS forming. The
latest RAP would have CIGS across central KS now, but satellite
shows the only low clouds down across central OK. Kept a tempo for
some low CIGS but keep them above 2 KFT. If low clouds don`t form
soon, we may only see a CU field with daytime heating.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
315 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
07Z water vapor imagery and profiler data shows a well defined MCV
over the MO river. Meanwhile a linear MCS is progressing east
through southern NEB. A longer wavelength upper trough could be seen
in water vapor from the four corners northwest into ID. Surface
observations show low pressure in the lee of the Rockies with higher
MSLP pressure over the MS river valley. A moist airmass remains over
the forecast area with dewpoint temps in the lower 70s.
The forecast for this morning will be a battle between the MCS to
the west and warming mid level temps. Regional radar imagery has
shown newer development to the south of the convection has had a
difficult time intensifying and the HRRR/RAP have been gradually
backing off on bringing the storms very far into north central KS.
Think that subsidence just to the west of the MCV over the MO river
may also play a roll in how far convection moves east. In short the
latest RAP forecast soundings indicate that by 12Z 700 MB temps will
warm to around 12C capping a surface parcel and what little elevated
instability there is gradually diminishing. Will carry a chance for
precip across the northern and northwest counties this morning, but
the overall forcing does not look strong enough for storms to move
across the whole area. At this time the afternoon hours look to be
mostly dry as models show little if any forcing. Of course the one
potential wrench in the works would be any MCV generated by the
storms in southwestern NEB. Will have to keep an eye on this. Think
south winds will become breezy today as the pressure gradient
increases. Highs today will be dependent on how deep the boundary
layer mixes. Think the NAM forecast soundings may be a little to
conservative in mixing the boundary layer and have continued with
highs in the mid to upper 80s.
For tonight, precip chances are anticipated to increase through the
night as the longer wavelength trough moves east into KS and NEB. It
appears as though storms would likely initiate along the foothills
of the Rockies and then move east again. With this in mind have the
higher POPs spreading west to east mainly during the overnight
hours. There is the potential for storms to be little more organized
as deep layer shear increases with the stronger upper level winds
associated with the trough overspread the area. 0-6KM shear
increases to around 40KTS. With MUCAPE possibly as high as 2000
J/kg, will be to watch out for some strong winds and hail. Lows
could be a little tricky if rain does move in. For now have trended
lows down a degree or so across north central KS where precip is
most likely . Otherwise have kept the forecast lows generally around
70.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
By Saturday morning, the negatively-tilted trough axis is progged
to be over central KS, expected to slowly lift northeast through
the afternoon and evening. Operational guidance is in good
agreement on an MCS shifting eastward into northeast KS early Saturday
morning with high confidence and precipitation chances inserted
for this period. Based on a weakening trend of instability as well
as warming h7 temps near 12Z, current thinking is that the complex
will track southeast and weaken during the mid morning hours.
Storms in the morning period may be capable of gusty winds and
small hail. What is more uncertain is how quickly, if at all, the
atmosphere can recover for severe convection in the afternoon.
There is some indication of clearing across north central areas in
the afternoon, allowing the boundary layer to quickly destabilize
with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/KG. A more favorable wind profile
appears by late afternoon with 0-6 KM shear profiles near 35 kts.
As storms fire ahead of dryline over central KS by late afternoon,
north central areas would see the best chance for severe storms.
Large hail and damaging winds would be the main hazards. Should
expect the thunderstorms to cluster and push eastward through the evening.
Activity clears the CWA Sunday morning, setting up for a very humid
and warm afternoon. Warm and moist air pooling northward will raise
high temperatures to the low 90s. Heat indices may reach the low
100s during the late afternoon. The departing upper trough to the
north will usher a cold front across Nebraska, and possibly northern
portions of the CWA, dependent on model of choice. Increasing wind
shear profiles with instability approaching 4500 J/KG would highly
suggest any storm able to develop near the Nebraska border likely to
be severe by late afternoon and early evening. Storm chances
increase overnight as a line of convection is shunted south and east
over northern and far eastern portions of KS.
On Monday afternoon, 00Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF vary somewhat on
placement of the cold front however do agree on the frontal boundary
bisecting the CWA by late afternoon. Decent convergence along the
boundary will result in organized convection, some severe, as high
surface instability peaks over 4000 J/KG and 0-6 KM shear is near 35
kts.
From Tuesday onward, northwest flow ensues as ridging slowly pushes
over the Inter-mountain West. The frontal boundary is expected to
stall over central or southern KS as weak embedded shortwave troughs
pass through the region. Off and on chances for storms are expected
with perhaps a more organized system bringing more widespread activity
late Wednesday into Thursday.
After highs in the low 90s and lows in the lower 70s through Monday,
the cool front will only lower readings slightly to the upper 80s
for highs and upper 60s for lows through Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
Showers slowly moving eastward and will carry only vsch at this
time for TOP/FOE. Guidance still suggesting cloud deck to develop
toward sunrise. Have added vcts as higher resolution models
suggest activity out over high plains moves into the forecast are
in the midmorning hours.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
122 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014
...aviation update...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
For tonight, surface dewpoints have increased in back of last nights
MCS across western Kansas. Current models are off by about 10
degrees too low with dewpoints with current analysis showing
moderate to high instability of 3000 to 4000 J/kg CAPEs. Have raised
thunderstorm chances for late this afternoon into tonight with the
greater instability and weaker mid level warm capping. Water vapor
imagery currently showing a disturbance moving into the Colorado
Rockies and some storms developing near a dryline in Baca County
Colorado. On the negative side, the forecast jet level winds are
weak around 30 kts with weak mid level winds around 20 kts. So if
any thunderstorms develop they will be slowly moving and briefly
supercells before gusting out. Have upped chances to 40 percent with
some severe up to golf ball hail, damaging winds, and very heavy
rainfall. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.
For Friday, a strong upper level shortwave trough moves into western
Kansas in the afternoon with a dryline moving across far western
Kansas. Good moisture along with strong low to mid level directional
shear will be available ahead of this upper trough. The only
negative is the upper level winds of only 30 to 40 knots. Also the
models show a warm front near Dodge City with some backing of the
low level wind fields which will lead to a stronger shear profile
for rotating supercells and isolated tornadoes. Current thoughts are
the atmosphere looks capped with some mid level warming, however as
the upper trough and cold pool moves into far western Kansas by mid
afternoon, that some thunderstorms will break the cap and rapidly
become severe as they move off the dryline. A merger into a squall
line is probable later in the afternoon to evening with lots of
large hail reports, some tornadoes, and damaging winds. Could be a
moderate risk day ahead for Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
Medium range models indicate an upper level trough of low pressure
shifting east out of the Western High Plains into the Central Plains
Saturday increasing the likelihood for thunderstorms from the
Dakotas southward into portions of Kansas. As this system moves
across the region, an associated upper level jet is projected to
dip southeast across the Central Rockies, nosing into the panhandles
of Oklahoma and Texas placing a left exit region across western
Kansas. Meanwhile, ample low level moisture will continue to pool
ahead of a surface trough edging eastward across western Kansas.
Favorable dynamic support aloft combined with increased convergence
near the surface will set the stage for possible thunderstorms
across central and more eastern portions of southwest Kansas
potentially through early Saturday afternoon. Another round of
storms may be possible across south central Kansas Saturday evening
as the aforementioned surface trough is expected to stall out
somewhere generally across the area before washing out. Drier
conditions are then expected through Monday as the flow aloft
weakens while becoming more zonal.
The next significant chance for precip will return Monday night into
Tuesday as a closed off upper level low develops and strengthens
while pushing eastward along the U.S. border in southern Canada. As
the closed off low deepens, an attendant cold front will push
southeast into and across Western Kansas Monday before stalling
out somewhere in the vicinity of the Oklahoma border. Thunderstorms
will be possible across central and portions of southwest Kansas
Monday night, with the best chances in vicinity of the boundary as a
strong upper level jet core dives southeast into the Central Plains.
The intensity of any storm development will be dependent on how far
south the upper level jet reaches before lifting northeast.
Temperatures are expected to be near normal Saturday even as a
surface trough moves through western Kansas turning the low level
flow more northerly. Slightly cooler air will filter southward into
the region limiting highs to the upper 80s(F) to near 90F Saturday
afternoon. Widespread 90s(F) are likely Sunday as lee side troughing
strengthens across eastern Colorado helping to draw warmer air back
north into the region. Slightly cooler temperatures are likely once
again Monday as a weak cold front pushes through western Kansas by
early to mid afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 118 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
An MCS will continue eastward into north central Kansas through the
overnight hours, with some potential for southward development
through KHYS as recent HRRR model runs have indicated. Current radar
trends are indicating this trend as radar echoes are developing
south of Colby through Scott City. Southerly surface winds will
become more windy by late morning before severe convection develops
in the late afternoon along a warm front across west central Kansas
with good chances for terminal impacts through the evening hours
Friday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 90 67 90 67 / 20 40 40 20
GCK 94 66 91 66 / 50 50 30 20
EHA 97 64 93 66 / 30 30 10 20
LBL 95 67 92 67 / 40 40 30 20
HYS 89 69 90 67 / 40 60 50 20
P28 90 71 89 70 / 20 30 50 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
350 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH POCKETS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOUND FURTHER EAST...BUT
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN ACTUAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY CALM THROUGH THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FAR FROM 70 DEGREES. WITH LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP IN A FEW PLACES...
BUT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT IT FROM BECOMING TOO
WIDESPREAD OR DENSE...SO FAR. ON RADAR...A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
FOUND ALONG THE BORDER WITH TENNESSEE AND THESE HAVE BEEN A FAIRLY
STEADY STATE FEATURE THROUGH THIS MIDDLE PART OF THE NIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A
RATHER WEAK RIDGE HOLDING ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A LARGE
AND DEEP TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE NATION.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A FEW WAVES OF ENERGY WILL RIDE NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH KENTUCKY WITH THE RIDGE OFFERING LITTLE RESISTANCE. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE LEANED TOWARD A GENERAL BLEND BUT ALSO SPECIFICS
FROM THE NAM12 AND HRRR DUE TO THEIR HIGHER RESOLUTION.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COUPLE IN A LONG STRING OF DAYS
RECENTLY THAT HAVE BEEN WARM WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL PEAK LATE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
REMAIN A THREAT EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND PWS WILL BE RATHER HIGH WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS SO THAT
HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR ANY OF THE MORE ORGANIZED CELLS.
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE STORMS
FROM BECOMING TOO STRONG. SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT...TONIGHT/S WEATHER
WILL BE MUGGY AND MILD WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE. DO
EXPECT A BIT BETTER COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THE SHOWER AND STORMS ON
SATURDAY AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN THE BCCONSALL THEREAFTER. DID
MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RIDGE AND VALLEY SPOTS TONIGHT. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS TODAY...SIMILAR
TONIGHT...AND THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NUMBERS ON SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
WITH A WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH...AND A GOOD FLOW OF WARM MOIST
AND UNSTABLE GULF AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION TO START OUT THE
PERIOD ON SATURDAY EVENING...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE MODELS DO SHOW A REGRESSION
IN THE ACTIVITY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEY ARE ALL STILL
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. THE PROBLEM IS
HOWEVER...THAT NONE OF THE MODELS AGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE
ACROSS EASTERN KY...OR THE LOCATION FOR THIS CONVECTION.
BUT...WITH AN INCOMING TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT
PROVIDING ENHANCED LIFT...AND CONTINUED MOIST WARM AIR FLOWING INTO
THE REGION EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME DECLINE IN THE
ACTIVITY...BUT NOT A COMPLETE ENDING.
THINGS WILL KICK BACK UP SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO
MANITOBA AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE
SHORTWAVE...STILL LINGERING FROM TEXAS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH ANOTHER DAY
WITH WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIR PULLING IN FROM THE GULF...WILL CREATE
A LINE OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY AS WELL. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY
PULL OUT OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BREAK IN PRECIP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS THE SURFACE FRONT FINALLY MAKES IT INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES...IT WILL CHANGE ITS POSITION
TO SIT RIGHT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...RUNNING FROM WEST TO EAST. IT
WILL THEN LOSE STRENGTH AND SLOW DOWN...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO
A MORE SW DIRECTION BY TUESDAY EVENING...CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF. THEN...AS THE
FRONT PARKS ITSELF NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NRLY. THIS WILL FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES. THAT BEING SAID...FRONTOGENESIS WILL STILL BE
LIKELY...AND MODELS ARE STILL PINPOINTING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE INCONSISTENCY
BETWEEN MODELS AT THIS POINT IS QUITE APPARENT...SO WILL STICK CLOSE
TO ALLBLEND SOLUTION.
ONCE THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO
FINALLY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL ALSO TAKE QUITE
THE PLUMMET...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
WHILE CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR AT MOST SITES FOR THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY MAY BRING ABOUT TEMPORARY MVFR
CONDITIONS. HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FOR THIS CONCERN IN ALL THE TAFS
TIMING THE THREAT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. ALSO...A COUPLE OF
LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR VIS FROM FOG THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
326 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A DISTURBANCE
BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FINISH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHALLOW PTCHY FOG WL QUICKLY DSPT AFT SUNRISE. OTRW HIGH PRES WL
BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEA TDA...WITH TEMPS ABV SEASONAL
LVLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RIDGE WL CONT TO BLD ACRS THE RGN INTO SAT. PCPN CHCS RTN AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EWD LT SAT AND SUN...AND MOISTURE AND INSTBY
INCR IN SW FLOW. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ADVN ACRS THE RGN SUN NGT
AND MON...MAINTAINING SHWR AND TSTM CHCS. TEMPS SHOULD AVG A FEW
DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS THRU THE PD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WL FEATURE HIGH END CHC TO LIKELY MID WEEK
POPS AS PER EXPECTATIONS OF A CDFNT APPRCH AND PASSAGE. THAT FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MODERATE WARM TEMPS BACK TO...THEN SLIGHTLY BLO THE
AVGS. WPC GUIDANCE CONTS TO REPRESENT THE SCENARIO REASONABLY
WELL...SO ONLY MINOR ALTERATIONS WERE COMPLETED.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES WL CONT TO SLIDE TWD CNTRL PA THIS MRNG WHILE
INVOKING WEAK DOWNGLIDE/SBSDNC ACRS UPR OH VALLEY TERMINALS. GIVEN
THE DRY HYDROLAPSE ON THE PIT EVE SOUNDING AND ON RAP SNDINGS...WL
FORECAST JUST SOME LGT FOG...I.E. MVFR VALUES FOR MOST PORTS AS
PER THE LATEST HRRR PROJECTIONS.
ANY FOG THAT DOES DVLP WL BE SHALLOW IN NATURE...HENCE VFR WL
QUICKLY RTN AFTR DAYBREAK AND PERSIST FOR THE RMNDR OF THE TAF PD.
.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH SCT AFTN TSTMS THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
07/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1234 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY. A DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY CLR SKIES ARE EXPD OVRNGT WITH INCRG SBSDNC UNDER BLDG HIGH
PRES. SHALLOW PTCHY FOG IS PSBL BUT SBSDNC WL BE A LMTG FACTOR. NR
AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE WL CONT TO BLD ACRS THE RGN THRU SAT. PCPN CHCS RTN AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EWD SAT NGT AND SUN AND...AND MOISTURE AND INSTBY
INCR IN SW FLOW. A SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO APCH SUN NGT...MAINTAINING
SHWR AND TSTM CHCS. TEMPS SHOULD AVG A FEW DEG ABV SEASONAL AVGS
THRU THE PD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WL FEATURE HIGH END CHC MID WEEK POPS AS
PER EXPECTATIONS OF A CDFNT APPRCH AND PASSAGE. THAT FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MODERATE WARM TEMPS BACK TO...THEN SLIGHTLY BLO THE
AVGS. WPC GUIDANCE CONTS TO REPRESENT THE SCENARIO REASONABLY
WELL...SO ONLY MINOR ALTERATIONS WERE COMPLETED.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES WL CONT TO SLIDE TWD CNTRL PA THIS MRNG WHILE
INVOKING WEAK DOWNGLIDE/SBSDNC ACRS UPR OH VALLEY TERMINALS. GIVEN
THE DRY HYDROLAPSE ON THE PIT EVE SOUNDING AND ON RAP SNDINGS...WL
FORECAST JUST SOME LGT FOG...I.E. MVFR VALUES FOR MOST PORTS AS
PER THE LATEST HRRR PROJECTIONS.
ANY FOG THAT DOES DVLP WL BE SHALLOW IN NATURE...HENCE VFR WL
QUICKLY RTN AFTR DAYBREAK AND PERSIST FOR THE RMNDR OF THE TAF PD.
.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH SCT AFTN TSTMS THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
07/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS DULUTH MN
430 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
MSAS SHOWS A LARGE SFC HIGH OVER THE ERN GT LAKES/QUEBEC AND A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS INCREASING
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE REGION. PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES
ARE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE
REACHED THE LOW/MID 60S OVER THE SRN TIER OF THE CWA. TYPICAL MARINE
LAYER IS REPRESENTED IN THE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS WITH LOW 40S DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD...INTO THE TWIN PORTS...AND ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE. AN EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION IS MOVING NORTH FROM SERN MN
AND APPEARS TO BE LINKED TO THE RUC13 85H MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS
ANALYSIS. ADDITIONALLY...A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF IS LOCATED FROM
SERN SODAK INTO WRN IOWA. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE MAKING THEIR WAY
TOWARDS THE BRD LAKES REGION. ELSEWHERE PATCHY MID/HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY/TONIGHT/TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
TODAY...WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES TOWARDS SRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP IS GOING TO BE VERY CHALLENGING CONSIDERING THE
LIMITED PREDICTABILITY OF MESOSCALE FORCING WITHIN THIS BROAD ARE OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. WILL PUT HIGHER POPS OVER SRN/SERN CWA
THROUGH 21Z BASED ON INITIAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN SERN MN MOVING
INTO THE AREA. HI RES MDLS NOT VERY HELPFUL WITH DEPICTING CURRENT
PRECIP AREAL COVERAGE VERY WELL. UPDATES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING CONSIDERING LOW CONFIDENCE. GENERAL PATTERN WILL
FAVOR SRN TIER OF ZONES TODAY FOR PRECIP WITH STABILITY INCREASING
NORTHEAST INTO THE ARROWHEAD DUE TO THE MARINE LAYER.
TONIGHT/TOMORROW...SIGNIFICANT LLJ DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
CTRL PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRNTL BDRY. FCST MOVEMENT OF LLJ
PLACES STRONG MSTR TRANSPORT INTO WRN PART OF CWA BY 12Z. HOWEVER
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT AT MID LVLS SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL
OCCUR WHICH MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO NWRN PART OF CWA.
MAY NEED TO ADD HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO WRN CWA IF LATER MDL OUTPUT
CONTINUES THIS TREND. THIS AREA OF MID LVL WARMING IS FCST TO ADVECT
EAST TOMORROW SO WE MAY FIND A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIP OVER CTRL/ERN
CWA UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING. WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS OVER WRN CWA
WHERE MID LVL COOLING BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
A FAIRLY WET PERIOD IS SHAPING UP EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL
RESULT IN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.8 TO 2
INCHES. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE WET ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TOTAL
RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND ON THE AVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF AN
INCH OR MORE IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCAL AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE IN BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHAT OF
A DRY SLOT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF LIKELY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL THEN TRANSITION FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A COUPLE DRY DAYS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT FROM EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT A WARMUP WILL THEN REDEVELOP FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
HAVE DELAYED THE MENTION OF VCSH TO 13Z OR LATER AS DRY AIR OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE PCPN AT BAY. EXPECT GUSTY SFC WINDS BY
15Z AND DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET. KEPT THE PROB30 FOR -TSRA...BUT
DELAYED THE MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS. VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 72 57 75 61 / 50 50 50 80
INL 79 65 79 63 / 50 50 60 80
BRD 79 70 81 66 / 50 50 70 80
HYR 80 67 83 69 / 50 40 50 80
ASX 75 62 80 65 / 30 30 40 70
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
419 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
FORECAST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND TIMING OF NEXT SHORT WAVE
LATER TONIGHT OUT WEST.
THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN
IOWA/SOUTHEAST MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY IS
MOVING NORTHEAST VERY SLOWLY...AROUND 12-15KTS. THE 05Z HRRR DOES
LIFT THIS AREA NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS IT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TOWARD 18Z...IT REDEVELOPS THE AREA...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKENS
WITH TIME. SOME CHANCE ACTIVITY OVER NEBRASKA WILL REMAIN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AS WELL. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND
HEATING WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE NAM AND GFS MODELS DO DEPICT THIS FAIRLY WELL. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP HIGHER POPS TO THE EAST...AND MAY BE CATEGORICAL THROUGH PART
OF THE MORNING.
WILL MOST LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO THE EAST EARLY
EVENING...AND THEN FOCUS TURNS TO THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT
SOME SORT OF COMPLEX OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AGAIN THIS EVENING AND
RIDE EAST AHEAD OF FRONT/SHORT WAVE. TIMING APPEARS TO BE MAINLY
AFTER 06Z SAT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS WEST...LOWER TO THE
EAST. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THIS WEEKEND WILL PROVE TO BE ACTIVE...NO SURPRISE THERE THIS
SUMMER...BUT IN DIFFERENT WAYS. FIRST...THERE WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN MN. AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...ACTIVITY WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. MODELS
HAVE SLOWED WITH THE TIMING A BIT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER
INSTABILITY TO BUILD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS COULD
BRING A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT STILL THINK THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE HEAVY RAINFALL. PW VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES...IN ADDITION TO
HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND MBE VELOCITIES OF 5 KTS OR LESS ALL SPELL
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. KEPT POPS GENERALLY THE SAME FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE FIRST TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF
DRYING EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THEN ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY
WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTH OF THE LARGE
UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD ATOP A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A REGION OF
INCREASING BULK SHEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN
NORTHEAST TO ECNTRL MN AND WESTERN WI. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY BEFORE ACTIVITY CONGEALS INTO A LINEAR
MCS DURING THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. THE BEST HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL
BE IF/WHERE THE LINE BECOMES WEST-EAST ORIENTATED OVERNIGHT.
TRAINING AND FLASH FLOODING COULD BECOME A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. MODELS
CURRENTLY INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR.
DEPENDING HOW THE MCS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT EVOLVES...THERE COULD BE
RAIN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR SRN MN AND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WI. BY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AND A DRY
SLOT WILL CLEAR THIS AREA OUT. FURTHER NORTH...CYCLONIC MOIST FLOW
MAY SPARK A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
MN...WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE STATE
TUESDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT NEXT WEEK WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS FORECAST FOR ALL OF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS
IT ALSO LOOKS DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA DURING PERIOD. SOME
THREAT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FA OVERNIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH PEAK HEATING. SHORT WAVE IS SLOW
TO MAKE PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION...WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXPECTED. WILL KEEP THE HIGHER PROBS FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING...THEN BRING
PROB30/VCSH TYPE ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON. APPEARS ANYTIME AFTER
17Z/18Z FOR THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN AREAS AS
SHORT WAVE EXITS THE AREA. WILL MENTION MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER
28.02Z AGAIN OVER THE WISCONSIN REGION AND THIS COULD PROPAGATE
EAST DURING THE NIGHT AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT. WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS AS GRADIENT INCREASES LATER IN THE MORNING WITH
GUSTS TO 20KT-28KTS POSSIBLE.
KMSP...
SOME THREAT OF SHRA LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. THEN EXPECT BETTER THREAT DEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS UPPER TROUGH/INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH PEAK HEATING. BEST SHOT
OF ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE IN THE 18Z-22Z PERIOD. WILL MENTION
PROB30 FOR THIS FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VFR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH A SHOT OF LOWER VSBYS IN RAIN/THUNDER. MAY SEE
CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE OF
THIS AT THE MOMENT. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST AND
INCREASE BY MID MORNING OR SO WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS LIKELY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
WINDS SSW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
402 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
MSAS SHOWS A LARGE SFC HIGH OVER THE ERN GT LAKES/QUEBEC AND A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS INCREASING
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE REGION. PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES
ARE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE
REACHED THE LOW/MID 60S OVER THE SRN TIER OF THE CWA. TYPICAL MARINE
LAYER IS REPRESENTED IN THE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS WITH LOW 40S DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD...INTO THE TWIN PORTS...AND ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE. AN EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION IS MOVING NORTH FROM SERN MN
AND APPEARS TO BE LINKED TO THE RUC13 85H MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS
ANALYSIS. ADDITIONALLY...A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF IS LOCATED FROM
SERN SODAK INTO WRN IOWA. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE MAKING THEIR WAY
TOWARDS THE BRD LAKES REGION. ELSEWHERE PATCHY MID/HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY/TONIGHT/TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
TODAY...WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES TOWARDS SRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP IS GOING TO BE VERY CHALLENGING CONSIDERING THE
LIMITED PREDICTABILITY OF MESOSCALE FORCING WITHIN THIS BROAD ARE OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. WILL PUT HIGHER POPS OVER SRN/SERN CWA
THROUGH 21Z BASED ON INITIAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN SERN MN MOVING
INTO THE AREA. HI RES MDLS NOT VERY HELPFUL WITH DEPICTING CURRENT
PRECIP AREAL COVERAGE VERY WELL. UPDATES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING CONSIDERING LOW CONFIDENCE. GENERAL PATTERN WILL
FAVOR SRN TIER OF ZONES TODAY FOR PRECIP WITH STABILITY INCREASING
NORTHEAST INTO THE ARROWHEAD DUE TO THE MARINE LAYER.
TONIGHT/TOMORROW...SIGNIFICANT LLJ DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
CTRL PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRNTL BDRY. FCST MOVEMENT OF LLJ
PLACES STRONG MSTR TRANSPORT INTO WRN PART OF CWA BY 12Z. HOWEVER
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT AT MID LVLS SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL
OCCUR WHICH MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO NWRN PART OF CWA.
MAY NEED TO ADD HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO WRN CWA IF LATER MDL OUTPUT
CONTINUES THIS TREND. THIS AREA OF MID LVL WARMING IS FCST TO ADVECT
EAST TOMORROW SO WE MAY FIND A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIP OVER CTRL/ERN
CWA UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING. WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS OVER WRN CWA
WHERE MID LVL COOLING BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
A FAIRLY WET PERIOD IS SHAPING UP EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL
RESULT IN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.8 TO 2
INCHES. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE WET ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TOTAL
SNOWFALL OVER THE WEEKEND ON THE AVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF
AN INCH OR MORE IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
WITH THUNDERSTORMS...LOCAL AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE IN BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOMEWHAT OF A DRY SLOT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER AREA
OF LIKELY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL THEN TRANSITION FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
A COUPLE DRY DAYS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT FROM EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT A WARMUP WILL THEN REDEVELOP FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
HAVE DELAYED THE MENTION OF VCSH TO 13Z OR LATER AS DRY AIR OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE PCPN AT BAY. EXPECT GUSTY SFC WINDS BY
15Z AND DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET. KEPT THE PROB30 FOR -TSRA...BUT
DELAYED THE MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS. VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 72 57 75 61 / 50 50 50 80
INL 79 65 79 63 / 50 50 60 80
BRD 79 70 81 66 / 50 50 70 80
HYR 80 67 83 69 / 50 40 50 80
ASX 75 62 80 65 / 30 30 40 70
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1217 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 717 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
Base on current radar and satellite trends lowering PoPs over most
of the CWA. The exception being far northwest MO which will be
closest to scattered convection tied to the remnant MCV over
northeast KS. Little if any lift to the south of the MCV. Models have
continued to do a poor job handling the weak flow summer convection.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 338 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
Quite a lot to talk about in the short term as several features of
interest will impact the Central Plains/Lwr Missouri Rvr Vly through
the weekend. The first of these is currently on the doorstep so to
speak with a slow moving MCV now positioned over east-central Kansas.
In reality...this feature has been quite impressive in that
this system has maintained itself through much of the day with
regional radars now showing a weak leading line of convection
stretched from near Emporia south to the Kansas/Oklahoma state line.
Recent trends over the past hour or so have indicated the feature is
beginning to decay...however will maintain chc pops across the far
western zones through the remainder of the afternoon. Further
east...very little activity expected through the remainder of the
afternoon however the HRRR continues to advertise some weak "pulsy"
type convection this afternoon and thus will maintain an iso mention
for areas primarily east of the route 65 corridor.
Heading into tonight...numerous near term models to include the HRRR
and Rapid-Refresh suggest convection now firing over southeastern
Nebraska will gradually develop into an MCS before diving southeast
towards our area. As a result...have kept the highest pops over the
northern third of the CWA...with mainly an iso mention south of the
I-70 corridor. As was highlighted earlier today...limited to no
severe wx expected based on very poor wind fields aloft. Of greater
concern will be slow storm movement and possible heavy rainers with
any storms that do develop. PWAT values still remain high this
afternoon as verified on latest Blended TPW and percent of normal
satellite products. Overnight lows should fall into the upper 60s to
lower 70s for most locations.
Overnight convection should begin skirting off to the east on Friday
as main mid-level vort/MCV slowly tracks east with time. As a
result...have advertised an improving trend through the afternoon
from west to east as region becomes enveloped in increasing
subsidence behind departing feature. Another warm one expected with
highs likely climbing into the middle to upper 80s.
Things begin to heat up going into the weekend as large longwave
trough ejects east from the central Rockies. As this occurs...all
short term model guidance in reasonably good agreement that overall
trough orientation will take on a negative tilt...with pressure falls
immediately east of the Front Range resulting in pronounced moisture
and thermal advection north into the central Plains/Lwr Missouri Rvr
Vly. That said...upper winds also forecast to increase as a mid-level
speed max of roughly 45-50 kts rotates into the area during the
afternoon. This combined with a low-level jet of nearly equal
magnitude and a moderately unstable airmass should allow for favorable
conditions for developing convection by Saturday afternoon. One thing
of particular interest this afternoon is the model/s suggesting of
very steep mid-level lapse rates nosing into our area as well-
established EML plume propagates east off the southern
Rockies/Mexican Plateau. One caveat potentially going against robust
development will be the degree of destabilization as
overnight convection across the central High Plains may result in a
decent CI canopy aloft. Late afternoon activity could easily continue
into the overnight period as bulk shear vectors take on a more
"along- parallel" trajectory which could favor a gradual transition
to a linear based system. In any event...something to definitely keep
an eye on as the event nears.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 338 PM CDT THU JUN
26 2014
Subsidence behind Saturday night`s shortwave should keep most of
Sunday dry aside from some potential lingering precipitation across
central Missouri early in the day. However, a secondary weak
shortwave rounding the base of a large upper trough to the north
could bring another round of storms into Iowa and northern Missouri
Sunday night. This activity should develop ahead of a weak front
which will drop into eastern Nebraska Sunday night and slowly sag
south of the I-70 corridor through Tuesday. This will bring
additional chances for thunderstorms to much of the region Monday
and Monday night before the cold front moves south of the forecast
area by Tuesday. Ahead of the front, a warm and humid airmass Sunday
and Monday could send heat index values into the upper 90s to near
100, and also provide quite a bit of instability for a few
potentially strong storms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
Weak upper trough and isentropic ascent forcing scattered elevated
showers with a few thunderstorms to form across northwest MO early
this morning. Activity trails back into west central MO. This
convection could well last to daybreak while the leading edge drifts
eastward. Expect most if not all of the convection to dissipate by
mid morning. Will be watching the convection peeling east out of far
northwest KS and southwest NE as it will likely track east and
towards northwest MO. Most likely this activity will dissipate before
reaching this area.
Gusty southerly winds by mid morning lasting till shortly before
sunset. Otherwise, VFR conditions on Friday. Low confidence on seeing
convection at the terminals although can`t rule out isolated hit and
miss convection during the afternoon hours.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
247 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
ALTHOUGH CLICHE...PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE MUCH OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THAT IT WILL BE UNSETTLED. THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AS MOST OF THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER SECTIONS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN MOIST.
ALTHOUGH FORECAST AREA DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH...THIS COULD HELP SET THE STAGE FOR
STRONGER STORMS LATE SUNDAY AS SBCAPE VALUES SOAR WITH AFTN
HEATING. THIS COULD THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MORE HEAVY RAIN LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THIS ENERGY IS RELEASED AIDED BY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SLOW
MOVING UPPER TROUGH NEAR NEBR/IA BORDER AT 07Z WITH NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPING NEAR MO RIVER. THERE WERE EVEN A FEW CELLS AT 07Z
TO THE WEST AIDED BY WEAK TRAILING ENERGY WHICH WAS AHEAD OF
LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEBR. A LARGER
UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS PROVIDING FORCING FOR THESE LARGE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO OUR WEST WAS CROSSING ROCKIES FM MT INTO
SOUTH THRU CO/UT BORDER. ACTIVITY COULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVER
THE FA THIS MORNING...EITHER DUE TO CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH
LEAD WEAKER TROUGH ENERGY...OR STORMS TO OUR WEST HOLDING TOGETHER
FED BY LOW LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH SOME DECREASE WAS HINTED AT THIS
AFTN BY 00Z GFS/ECMWF...WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS REMAINING IN
PLACE...ANY BREAKS/HEATING COULD CAUSE RENEWED DEVELOPMENT PER 00Z
NAM. NONETHELESS...WENT WITH A MIDDAY DECREASE IN POPS AND TRENDS
NEXT HOUR OR SO WILL BE MONITORED FOR SHORT TERM CHANGES. COUNTED
ON ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUDS/SHOWERS THIS AFTN SOUTHERN AREAS TO
ALLOW READINGS TO APPROACH THOSE OBSERVED YDA. IF 06Z RAP AND 00Z
ECMWF WOULD VERIFY THESE NUMBERS WOULD PROVE TOO COOL. LINGERING
CLOUDS/PRECIP N COULD KEEP THAT AREA A BIT COOLER AND GENERALLY
MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO PREV MAX TEMPS THERE. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HIGH AND CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATING GENERALLY SLOW
MOVEMENTS...ANY STORM COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN. SOME SEVERE RISK
ALSO PERSISTS...BUT BETTER SHEAR VALUES AND HIGHER CAPE REMAINED
MOSTLY TO THE WEST. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EWD TONIGHT...
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE IN...IF IT EVEN
LEAVES IN THE FIRST PLACE.
AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES THEN CROSSES AREA SATURDAY...HARD TO
DETERMINE IF THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A BREAK IN ACTIVITY AND THUS
HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED MUCH OF THE DAY. HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WILL PERSIST UNTIL MOST OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY
PASSES AS CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE SLOW MOVEMENT...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES.
SHEAR VALUES INCREASE AND IF AREA COULD RECOVER ENOUGH IN THE
AFTN...SEVERE THREAT COULD BE A BIT HIGHER...BUT IT SEEMS SOMEWHAT
CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME.
AS MENTIONED BRIEFLY ABOVE...THIS DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH COULD
CLEAR SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE FA ON SUNDAY.
BETTER HEATING DUE TO EARLY DAY SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL THEN ALLOW HIGHER CAPE VALUES TO DEVELOP. COUPLED WITH
A STRONG UPPER JET ON SOUTH SIDE OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALONG
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...AREA WILL BE PROVIDED WITH EVEN BETTER
SHEAR TO GO ALONG WITH THIS INCREASED CAPE. THIS IN TURN COULD
POINT TO AN ACTIVE LATE SUNDAY AFTN AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT
PERIOD OVER THE FA. FELT 00Z GFS WAS A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH WITH
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTN...WITH THE MORE NORTH PLACEMENT
FROM 00Z NAM/ECMWF PREFERRED. THUS HIGHEST POPS WERE PLACED ACROSS
NRN ZONES SUN AFTN WITH WITH LIKELY POPS MANY AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS RATHER ACTIVE AS SLOW MOVING AND POSSIBLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING MCS DRIFTS SLOWLY ESE. RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE MONDAY...SPECLY CNTRL/S WHERE FRONT MAY INITIALLY HANG UP
AWAITING FOR TRAILING ENERGY BEHIND UPPER TROUGH LIFTING BACK NE
INTO CANADA. MADE NO CHANGE TO MODEL/PREV FCST BLEND OF A DRY
FORECAST TUE/WED...BUT NWRLY FLOW ALOFT...LINGERING MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLE RETURN OF LOW LVL BOUNDARY COULD CHANGE THAT IN LATER
FORECASTS. DID LEAVE SMALL POPS IN NEXT THURSDAY AS BIT BETTER
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION RETURNS TO FA AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING
OVER PLAINS. MADE NO CHANGES TO PRIOR MODEL/PREV FCST TEMPERATURES
WITH MOST AREAS IN 80-85 DEG RANGE FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUES...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP
MENTION OUT OF THE TAF SITES FOR NOW. POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE
FOR STORMS IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT TO MORNING HOURS...AND/OR IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS...BUT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
COVERAGE AND LOCATION PRECLUDES MENTION. HAVE INDICATED POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR VIS NEAR DAWN AS TEMPERATURES FALL TOWARD DEWPOINTS...BUT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
DIURNALLY IN THE MID-MORNING AND DECREASE DIURNALLY AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
151 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THE STORMS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA APPEAR TO BE MOVING INTO MORE
STABLE SURFACE-BASED CONDITIONS AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING. AS A RESULT...WE WILL LET SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 359
EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 2 AM CDT. OF COURSE...NEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
HAVE UPDATED THE EVENING FORECAST TO ADJUST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NE. HRRR SUGGESTING A COMPLEX
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST AND MOVING EAST LATER THIS EVENING.
CURRENT RADAR EVOLVING CLOSE TO HRRR PROGS AND THIS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE TEMPS LEFT PRETTY MUCH AS IS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS RESIDE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO. ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE BASED
CAPES RUNNING IN THE 3000 TO 4500 J/KG RANGE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S. LITTLE CAPPING INVERSION LEFT AND EXPECT THAT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST FORCING REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT EXPECT A CLUSTER OR TWO OF STORMS TO MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...AIDED BY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 KTS.
AGAIN BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING TO REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...SO
WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW. OTHERWISE A VERY MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES DUE TO HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE/HUMIDITY.
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE FAVORABLE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT /DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S/ SHOULD YIELD MLCAPE IN
EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG. A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BE IN PLACE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COOLING ALOFT ALSO SPREADS
INTO THE AREA AFTER NOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DISTURBANCE. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR MERRIMAN TO OGALLALA SHOULD
BE THE FOCUS FOR RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND 3 OR 4 PM
CENTRAL TIME. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE BACKED TO THE
SOUTHEAST...VEERING TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT. INITIAL STORM MODE WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT. RATHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AT FIRST. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND FASTER
MOVING AS COLD POOL ALOFT EVOLVES AND STORMS SPREAD EAST FRIDAY
EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. A
RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS CREATING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 8.5
C/KM. SCATTERED COVERAGE WEST OF HWY 83 EARLY IN THE EVENING
SHOULD QUICKLY CONGEAL INTO A SMALL MCS. WHILE LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN EARLY EVENING...THIS
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A DAMAGING WIND/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
PUSH EAST OF THE FA FOR DRY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN
INTO SRN MANITOBA AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AGAIN BE STEEP AND AS CAP
WEAKENS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM MINNESOTA INTO NERN AND CENTRAL NEBR. THE ECMWF MODEL
IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS SUN AFTN/EVENING TO AS HIGH AS 30 TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF FA.
DRY AND PLEASANT MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 80S UNDER
INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN AIRMASS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY RETURN TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN WESTERN NEBRASKA COULD INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT THREE HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THEN...DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...A NEW ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WEST OF
MRR-OGA-IML SPREADING TO VTN-TIF-LBF AFTER 00Z. WITH EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...WIND GUSTS OF 45KT OR HIGHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH HAIL 1/2 INCH DIAMETER OR HIGHER. LOCALIZED HAIL SIZES
MAY APPROACH 2 INCHES DIAMETER...THOUGH THOSE CASES WILL BE
ISOLATED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
113 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
WITHIN THE PAST HALF HOUR THE TWO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS HAVE
ACCELERATED TO THE E AT 43 MPH. POPS/WX/SKY WERE ALL UPDATED TO
TIME THESE STORMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
AN ESTF UPDATE HAS BEEN OUT SINCE 1143 PM. OBSERVED TEMPS WERE
RUNNING COOLER THAN FCST W OF THE TRI-CITIES...BUT WE HAVE FCST
TEMPS BACK ON TRACK NOW.
FOG CHANNEL SATELLITE SHOWS MVFR CLOUDS DEVELOPING/EXPANDING OVER
S-CNTRL NEB. BASED ON MOS AND MULTI-MODEL VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS
THIS STRATUS SHOULD CONT TO EXPAND WITH LOWERING CIGS THRU THE
NIGHT.
WE CONT TO MONITOR THE DUAL BOWING LINE TSTMS SEGMENTS OVER SW NEB
AND NW KS. NOTHING SVR NOW. PROPAGATION APPEARS TO BE NNE. SOME OF
THESE STORMS OR THEIR REMNANTS SHOULD SCRAPE THE WRN PORTIONS OF
THE FCST AREA AFTER 2 AM. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF COULD
MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THESE TSTMS TO CONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
A SLOWLY DEPARTING MCV IS CURRENTLY EXITING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON ITS BACK
EDGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
MCV...COULD SEE A BRIEF STRONG STORM...WITH PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 14.
AFTER THIS MCV EXITS THE REGION...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WHERE
SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND
SHIFT EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH GOOD
CLEARING TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY HAS BUILT ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...WITH 3000-4000 JOULES OF CAPE...AND
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION OF THIS
CONVECTION...DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS A 50 KT LLJ SETS UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...LIKED THE HRRR SOLUTION THE BEST...AND KEPT THE HIGHEST
POPS TO THE WEST PRIOR TO 06Z...SPREADING CHANCES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THEREAFTER.
FOR FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT WITH THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHIFTING EASTWARD AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THIS TROUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT THE SHOT
FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...ALBEIT BETTER
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE AFT 00Z FRIDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURE WISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH BOTH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY EXPECTED TO RUN VERY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO LIE WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE ROUGHLY FIRST 24 HRS.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD /FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODELS HAVE
SHOWN MUCH CHANGE WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS HAVING SHIFTED ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS...AND RIDGING OVER
THE E/SERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
EXTENDED FROM WRN ND DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TX. MAIN FOCUS IS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
OFF TO THE WEST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL EVENTUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER LLJ...BUT VARY SOME ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE BETTER CONVERGENCE/LIFT...SO THE PLACEMENT OF ITS QPF VARIES A
BIT AS WELL. SAW NO REASON NOT TO KEEP THE LIKELY POPS GOING...BUT
DID HOLD BACK THE MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHER POPS UNTIL LATER IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING MAY SEE A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE ACTIVITY STILL WORKING ITS WAY EAST. WITH THE MODELS
COMBO OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND THE CWA REMAINS IN THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK
OUTLOOK. AS WE GET INTO SAT/SAT NIGHT...ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION...AS
WILL ANY REMNANT SFC BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND. MODELS HAVE PRECIP
LINGERING AROUND A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY...BUT WOULD THINK THERE
WOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK AT SOME POINT DURING THE MORNING...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE
WITH THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL AROUND...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF THE CWA.
THINK THAT ACTIVITY SATURDAY EVENING WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA...SO
AM KEEPING THE POST 06Z HOURS DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...AND KEPT THOSE DRY CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BY 12Z SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING MORE ZONAL FLOW HAVING SET UP ACROSS THE AREA...AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER SASKATCHEWAN.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SFC FRONT SLIDING SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW/SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
START PUSHING THE BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AS WE
GET INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...AND HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA /MAINLY SC NEB/.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...AT THIS POINT SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z GRI TAF THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
REST OF TONIGHT: MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING AND SHOULD
INVADE GRI SHORTLY. MODEL GUIDANCE FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES
SUGGEST CIGS WILL DECAY FURTHER TO IFR 09Z-12Z. WE ARE MONITORING
TSTM CLUSTERS UPSTREAM AND A PERIOD OF TSTMS COULD HIT GRI BEFORE
DAWN WITH IFR VSBYS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SO IT WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS TAF. WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS. SE-SSE WINDS WILL
REMAIN 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES. LLWS
WILL BE A PROBLEM.
CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO TSTM POTENTIAL AND HEIGHT/TIMING OF CHANGES
IN CEILING.
FRI: IFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY SCT TO
VFR STRATOCU. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM AFTER 20Z...BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF. SE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AND GUST 28 TO POSSIBLY 33 KTS AT TIMES.
CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO HEIGHT/TIMING CHANGES IN CEILING.
FRI EVE: VFR WITH A FAIRLY DECENT PROBABILITY OF IFR TSTMS AFTER
03Z. SE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES.
CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO TSTM POTENTIAL AND TIMING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1240 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
AN ESTF UPDATE HAS BEEN OUT SINCE 1143 PM. OBSERVED TEMPS WERE
RUNNING COOLER THAN FCST W OF THE TRI-CITIES...BUT WE HAVE FCST
TEMPS BACK ON TRACK NOW.
FOG CHANNEL SATELLITE SHOWS MVFR CLOUDS DEVELOPING/EXPANDING OVER
S-CNTRL NEB. BASED ON MOS AND MULTI-MODEL VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS
THIS STRATUS SHOULD CONT TO EXPAND WITH LOWERING CIGS THRU THE
NIGHT.
WE CONT TO MONITOR THE DUAL BOWING LINE TSTMS SEGMENTS OVER SW NEB
AND NW KS. NOTHING SVR NOW. PROPAGATION APPEARS TO BE NNE. SOME OF
THESE STORMS OR THEIR REMNANTS SHOULD SCRAPE THE WRN PORTIONS OF
THE FCST AREA AFTER 2 AM. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF COULD
MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THESE TSTMS TO CONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
A SLOWLY DEPARTING MCV IS CURRENTLY EXITING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON ITS BACK
EDGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
MCV...COULD SEE A BRIEF STRONG STORM...WITH PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 14.
AFTER THIS MCV EXITS THE REGION...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WHERE
SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND
SHIFT EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH GOOD
CLEARING TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY HAS BUILT ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...WITH 3000-4000 JOULES OF CAPE...AND
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION OF THIS
CONVECTION...DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS A 50 KT LLJ SETS UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...LIKED THE HRRR SOLUTION THE BEST...AND KEPT THE HIGHEST
POPS TO THE WEST PRIOR TO 06Z...SPREADING CHANCES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THEREAFTER.
FOR FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT WITH THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHIFTING EASTWARD AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THIS TROUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT THE SHOT
FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...ALBEIT BETTER
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE AFT 00Z FRIDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURE WISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH BOTH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY EXPECTED TO RUN VERY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO LIE WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE ROUGHLY FIRST 24 HRS.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD /FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODELS HAVE
SHOWN MUCH CHANGE WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS HAVING SHIFTED ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS...AND RIDGING OVER
THE E/SERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
EXTENDED FROM WRN ND DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TX. MAIN FOCUS IS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
OFF TO THE WEST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL EVENTUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER LLJ...BUT VARY SOME ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE BETTER CONVERGENCE/LIFT...SO THE PLACEMENT OF ITS QPF VARIES A
BIT AS WELL. SAW NO REASON NOT TO KEEP THE LIKELY POPS GOING...BUT
DID HOLD BACK THE MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHER POPS UNTIL LATER IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING MAY SEE A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE ACTIVITY STILL WORKING ITS WAY EAST. WITH THE MODELS
COMBO OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND THE CWA REMAINS IN THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK
OUTLOOK. AS WE GET INTO SAT/SAT NIGHT...ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION...AS
WILL ANY REMNANT SFC BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND. MODELS HAVE PRECIP
LINGERING AROUND A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY...BUT WOULD THINK THERE
WOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK AT SOME POINT DURING THE MORNING...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE
WITH THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL AROUND...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF THE CWA.
THINK THAT ACTIVITY SATURDAY EVENING WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA...SO
AM KEEPING THE POST 06Z HOURS DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...AND KEPT THOSE DRY CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BY 12Z SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING MORE ZONAL FLOW HAVING SET UP ACROSS THE AREA...AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER SASKATCHEWAN.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SFC FRONT SLIDING SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW/SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
START PUSHING THE BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AS WE
GET INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...AND HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA /MAINLY SC NEB/.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...AT THIS POINT SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z GRI TAF THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
REST OF TONIGHT: MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING AND SHOULD
INVADE GRI SHORTLY. MODEL GUIDANCE FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES
SUGGEST CIGS WILL DECAY FURTHER TO IFR 09Z-12Z. WE ARE MONITORING
TSTM CLUSTERS UPSTREAM AND A PERIOD OF TSTMS COULD HIT GRI BEFORE
DAWN WITH IFR VSBYS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SO IT WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS TAF. WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS. SE-SSE WINDS WILL
REMAIN 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES. LLWS
WILL BE A PROBLEM.
CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO TSTM POTENTIAL AND HEIGHT/TIMING OF CHANGES
IN CEILING.
FRI: IFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY SCT TO
VFR STRATOCU. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM AFTER 20Z...BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF. SE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AND GUST 28 TO POSSIBLY 33 KTS AT TIMES.
CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO HEIGHT/TIMING CHANGES IN CEILING.
FRI EVE: VFR WITH A FAIRLY DECENT PROBABILITY OF IFR TSTMS AFTER
03Z. SE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES.
CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO TSTM POTENTIAL AND TIMING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
HAVE UPDATED THE EVENING FORECAST TO ADJUST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST NE. HRRR SUGGESTING A COMPLEX
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST AND MOVING EAST LATER THIS EVENING.
CURRENT RADAR EVOLVING CLOSE TO HRRR PROGS AND THIS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE TEMPS LEFT PRETTY MUCH AS IS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS RESIDE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO. ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE BASED
CAPES RUNNING IN THE 3000 TO 4500 J/KG RANGE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S. LITTLE CAPPING INVERSION LEFT AND EXPECT THAT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST FORCING REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION TODAY...SO NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT EXPECT A CLUSTER OR TWO OF STORMS TO MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...AIDED BY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 35 KTS.
AGAIN BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING TO REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION...SO
WILL KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW. OTHERWISE A VERY MILD NIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES DUE TO HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE/HUMIDITY.
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE FAVORABLE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT /DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S/ SHOULD YIELD MLCAPE IN
EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG. A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BE IN PLACE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES
DRAMATICALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COOLING ALOFT ALSO SPREADS
INTO THE AREA AFTER NOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DISTURBANCE. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR MERRIMAN TO OGALLALA SHOULD
BE THE FOCUS FOR RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND 3 OR 4 PM
CENTRAL TIME. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE BACKED TO THE
SOUTHEAST...VEERING TO SOUTHWEST ALOFT. INITIAL STORM MODE WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT. RATHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING AT FIRST. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND FASTER
MOVING AS COLD POOL ALOFT EVOLVES AND STORMS SPREAD EAST FRIDAY
EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. A
RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS CREATING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 8.5
C/KM. SCATTERED COVERAGE WEST OF HWY 83 EARLY IN THE EVENING
SHOULD QUICKLY CONGEAL INTO A SMALL MCS. WHILE LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN EARLY EVENING...THIS
SHOULD TRANSITION TO A DAMAGING WIND/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
PUSH EAST OF THE FA FOR DRY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN
INTO SRN MANITOBA AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AGAIN BE STEEP AND AS CAP
WEAKENS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM MINNESOTA INTO NERN AND CENTRAL NEBR. THE ECMWF MODEL
IS THE MOST ROBUST WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE INCREASED
POPS SUN AFTN/EVENING TO AS HIGH AS 30 TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF FA.
DRY AND PLEASANT MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE LOWER 80S UNDER
INFLUENCE OF CANADIAN AIRMASS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AS BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY RETURN TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN WESTERN NEBRASKA COULD INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT THREE HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THEN...DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...A NEW ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WEST OF
MRR-OGA-IML SPREADING TO VTN-TIF-LBF AFTER 00Z. WITH EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...WIND GUSTS OF 45KT OR HIGHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH HAIL 1/2 INCH DIAMETER OR HIGHER. LOCALIZED HAIL SIZES
MAY APPROACH 2 INCHES DIAMETER...THOUGH THOSE CASES WILL BE
ISOLATED.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JWS
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1200 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
HAVE UPDATED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS FOR ONGOING TRENDS. AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY-DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST...AND
RADAR ALSO INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO.
SHOULD BE SOMETHING OF A BREAK BETWEEN ONGOING CONVECTION AS IT
DIMINISHES AND MOVES EASTWARD...AND LATER CONVECTION THAT IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE
TRIED TO CAPTURE TIMING A LITTLE MORE DISTINCTLY THROUGH MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS FIRED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE REMNANTS FROM AN MCV ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS MOVE INTO THE
AREA...COMBINED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES 3000-4000 J/KG.
EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK...LESS THAN 25 KNOTS...SO THE
STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY PULSY UP AND DOWN WITH SMALL HAIL AND 30 TO
50 MPH WINDS REPORTED. RAP MODEL INDICATES THIS WOULD REMAIN IN
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...THUS CONTINUED SCATTERED
WORDING IN THE FORECAST. SPC ALSO INDICATES A WATCH IS UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME. WEAK UPPER TROUGH EVEN REMAINS IN THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...AND COULD SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS...WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLE LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO INDUCE VERY SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY...COULD SEE
ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON STORMS.
BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD COME LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. STORMS
WILL LIKELY FIRE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS IN THE LEE TROUGH
AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO CROSS THE ROCKIES. THESE STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST...AND MOSTLY BRING A SEVERE RISK TO AREAS WEST OF
US...BUT SHOULD MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT...THUS HAVE POPS INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA...JUST CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS. WIND SHEAR IS STILL MARGINAL...
BUT COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THE
FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA. COULD SEE AN EVENING CHANCE
OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY EVENING...BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY...AND EVEN DRY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
BUT AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...IT
SHOULD DRIVE THE FRONT INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WIND SHEAR INCREASES ON SUNDAY
AND SHOULD SEE SEVERE STORMS BREAK OUT NORTH OF I80 BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN DEVELOP SOUTHWARD TOWARD I80 THROUGH THE EVENING
AS THE FRONT MOVES IN...THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL
PUSH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...WHEN NEXT CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY CONTINUES...AND HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP
MENTION OUT OF THE TAF SITES FOR NOW. POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE
FOR STORMS IN THE LATE OVERNIGHT TO MORNING HOURS...AND/OR IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS...BUT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
COVERAGE AND LOCATION PRECLUDES MENTION. HAVE INDICATED POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR VIS NEAR DAWN AS TEMPERATURES FALL TOWARD DEWPOINTS...BUT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
DIURNALLY IN THE MID-MORNING AND DECREASE DIURNALLY AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MAYES
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
136 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING AN
INCREASE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE NEXT WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN TO HOT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR NEAR LUMBERTON...WITH A SECOND CENTER IN
WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR THE TYPICAL LOCATION OF THE
LEE-SIDE TROUGH. NORTHERLY WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA MARK THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SETTLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION HAS HELPED STABILIZE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LATEST MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS SHOWING A CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. DECENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT MEAN ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN 2000 J/KG MUCAPE AND A DEEP
ENOUGH BOUNDARY TO ACT AS A TRIGGERING MECHANISM. EARLIER CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE LESS THAN 2000 FEET DEEP AS
MEASURED BY RADAR...WHICH IS BECOMING MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
NEW STORMS. THE LATEST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS SHOW VERY LITTLE
SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. I WILL MAINTAIN A 20-40
POP FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ALONG THE CURVED BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
WILMINGTON AND LELAND TO NEAR TABOR CITY...BUT SOUTH AND WEST OF
THIS AREA POPS HAVE BEEN CUT TO 10 PERCENT.
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...WITH LOWS
STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S AT THE
BEACHES. DESPITE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE WEST SHOULD
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...BROAD SWATH OF MOISTURE EMANATING FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MODULATE THE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
INTERVALS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MAIN AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A SUBTLE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE
PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE...A DECAYING FRONT WILL
ADD TO MID LEVEL CATALYSTS WHICH WILL CONSIST OF THE STANDARD
SHORTWAVES AND DEVELOPING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICIES. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGHER POPS FOR SATURDAY AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH ANYTIME IS FAIR GAME REALLY. THE
NAM/MET NUMBERS ARE COOLER ACROSS THE BOARD AND CONSIDERING THE
COVERAGE OF EXPECTED CONVECTION THESE SEEM MORE REASONABLE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND OFFSHORE SURFACE
BOUNDARY/WAVE SUNDAY TO MAKE FOR LOWERED RAIN CHANCES FROM DAYS
PREVIOUS WHILE TEMPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE CLIMO. MID LEVEL RIDGE TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FLUX GETS UNDERWAY COMPLIMENTS OF BERMUDA HIGH. THE REMAINS OF THE
OFFSHORE FLOW MAY HINDER THIS FLOW ON MONDAY BUT THE MIDWEEK PERIOD
WILL FEATURE THE RETURN OF A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL PIEDMONT
TROUGH. THIS COULD HOLD TRUE EVEN LONGER IF THE OFFSHORE LOW
RESTRENGTHENS IN A TROPICAL OR HYBRID SITUATION...BUT AS OF NOW THE
NHC INDICATES A LOW CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING. AFTER FEATURING LOWER
THAN NORMAL/ISOLATED POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BRING A RETURN OF
LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND. THICKNESS
VALUES RISE FROM ABOUT 574DAM TO 577DAM FROM EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO
TUESDAY AND THEREAFTER SIGNIFYING A FURTHER SHIFT ABOVE CLIMO FOR
TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN ANY PATCHY FOG/STRATUS EARLY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS...AND/OR IN SHRA/TSRA THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES WITH OVERALL LIGHT WINDS AND
SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...COULD
SEE SHORT-LIVED PATCHY AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS...WHICH IF DOES OCCUR
WILL DISSIPATE/MIX-OUT AFTER DAYBREAK GIVING WAY TO VFR. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPO IN GOING FORECAST. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH COULD
CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH SCATTERED
CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KTS. INTO THE EVENING HOURS
SHRA/TSRA WILL TAPER OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SCT/BKN LINGERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD POSSIBLY CREATING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM THURSDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR NEAR LUMBERTON WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING FROM THE CURRENT 12-15 KNOT SPEEDS. THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH OF CAPE FEAR IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO
A SOUTHWARD-DRIFTING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DIP SOUTHWARD LATE. SEAS
ARE GENERALLY 2 FEET WITH SOME 3-FOOTERS POSSIBLE AWAY FROM SHORE
EAST OF CAPE FEAR.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
TYPICAL OF A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH ONLY A BRIEF INTRUSION ABOVE
TEN KNOTS. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE MORE PROBLEMATIC. THE
DISSIPATING FRONT AND AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL ALMOST CALL FOR A
VARIABLE DIRECTION BUT OVERALL EAST TO EVEN NORTHEAST WINDS ON
OCCASION WILL SUFFICE. IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE MORE SEA BREEZE
DRIVEN...A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WILL BE MORE IN PLAY. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 1-3 FEET.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...SUNDAY BRINGS A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AS A
DECAYING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SITS OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE LIES ANCHORED OFF OF LONG ISLAND. THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FATE
OF THIS BOUNDARY COULD AFFECT THE WINDS FOR A LONGER PERIOD BUT FOR
NOW WILL OPT TOWARDS MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT WASH IT OUT AND/OR TAKE IT
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO NO LONGER HAVE A LOCAL BEARING. MONDAYS WINDS
THUS REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND WILL VEER JUST SLIGHTLY AS THE HIGH OFF
THE COAST DRIFTS EAST A BIT. DEVELOPING PIEDMONT TROUGH ON TUESDAY
TO BRING AN ADDITIONAL VEER TO S OR SSW BUT WITH NO APPRECIABLE
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. WITH JUST LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND A NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE SWELL PREDOMINANT SEAS 2 TO 3 FT AT MOST.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1239 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE NEAR
POWDERVILLE MONTANA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE CURRENT ARC/BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STRONGER H85 WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONGER STORMS. THUS FAR...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAIN HAVE BEEN THE MAIN THREATS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO 100 IN THE
SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND MAINTAINED A LIKELY MENTION
INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER WOULD EXPECT THIS
TO DIMINISHING AFTER 09Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
LITTLE CHANGE THIS UPDATE CYCLE OTHER THAN TO INCREASE POPS TO
ENHANCE THE FORECAST IN THE VERY SHORT...NOWCAST...TIME FRAME
WHERE STORMS WERE...MEDORA AND NORTHEAST FROM THERE ON EXPECTED
TRACK.
WILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. NO NEW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
EXISTING STORMS SO FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IT WILL BE SOME TIME
BEFORE THE WESTERN STORMS MAKE IT IN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
AFTER COORDINATION WITH FGF AND ABR...WILL SEND A QUICK UPDATE TO
LOWER POPS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TO SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH THE EVENING. SLIGHT CAP NOTED ON THE BISMARCK 00
UTC SOUNDING INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CONVECTION IN MONTANA SHOULD MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH ABUNDANT CAPE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT IT
SHOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE THIS REACHES EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME 70
DEGREE DEWPOINTS SHOWING UP FROM HARVEY TO CARRINGTON. CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA. INCREASING
BULK SHEAR SHOULD ALSO MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN MONTANA IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. LATEST HRRR INDICATES A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SHORTLY AFTER 00 UTC FRIDAY. A LIMITING
FACTOR CURRENTLY IS THE MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STILL WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO CONSIDERING THE VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS REMAINING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER EAST/CENTRAL WYOMING WITH
BROAD HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES TROF WORKING TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN WITH SWRLY FLOW OVER
OVER OUR AREA. VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES NOTED UPSTREAM TRIGGERING
OFF CONVECTION OVER PTNS OF ERN MT INTO WY.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED WAVES
WILL CONTINUE THEIR APPROACH TOWARDS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR IN PLACE SO SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUES. PLENTY OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE
AREA WITH PW VALUES PUSHING 150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT...STRETCHING
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...A WET DAY IS EXPECTED AS UPPER TROF CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH AND STARTS TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE SFC LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUING TO PULL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE CONTINUING THE
SEVERE THREAT. HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALSO CONTINUES WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SLOW MOVING/TRAINING STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUING FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO BE OVER EASTERN MONTANA BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD SLOWLY WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING
EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM DAYTIME FRIDAY AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
MAIN INITIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE DAKOTAS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES. THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR HEAVY RAIN...AND
PLENTY OF CAPE AND SHEARING FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY ON SATURDAY...BUT
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHED GREATLY OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN DRIVER WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BUT
BREEZY/WINDY SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO THE STATE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW STRENGTHENS AND REMAINS OVER MANITOBA. THEN A WESTERN RIDGE
BEGINS MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A PROMISE OF
DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 70S. LOWS IN THE 55 TO 65
RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND IN THE 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT EARLY THIS MORNING IS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER KDIK WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH TO
SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST. KBIS AND KMOT APPEARS TO REMAIN ON THE
EASTERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. FOR NOW HAVE A VCTS/VCSH UNTIL A MORE DEFINITIVE
SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TERMINALS. OVERALL EXPECT LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER THE LOWEST CIGS APPEAR TO DEVELOP
OVER KJMS...WITH IFR CIGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z FRIDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-
017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1153 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
STRONG CONVECTION ALONG A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO NORTHEAST OF
RAPID CITY SD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT.
LATEST RAP/HRRR/HOPWRF CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE AS
IT PROGRESSES INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...BUT ALL THREE ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS...SO EXACT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN. ANY STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. BESIDES ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS...MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1032 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL MN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
DISSIPATED. LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MT/ND
AND WY/SD BORDERS WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS STORMS MOVE OUT OF REGION OF FAVORED
DYNAMIC LIFT. LATEST RAP/HRRR KEEP PRECIP WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 18 UTC FRIDAY...SO MAY BE ABLE TO CUT POPS COMPLETELY
UNTIL THEN BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP 20 PERCENT GOING FOR ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
00 UTC REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A FEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN...MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH. DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ANY KIND OF MEANINGFUL
WAVE ON WATER VAPOR WITHIN GREATER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...BUT THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE
ND/MN BORDER. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PER LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS...BUT FORCING/LIFT IS VERY WEAK WITH AROUND 25 KTS AT
850 HPA AND 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR BELOW 30 KTS. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH THESE STORMS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SEVERE THRESHOLDS TO BE MET.
HRRR/HOPWRF SEEM TO BE HANDLING CURRENT CONVECTION THE BEST...
MOVING IT NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING WITH A BREAK IN ACTIVITY
UNTIL AT LEAST 06 UTC. THEREAFTER...HOPWRF REMAINS DRY WHEREAS
THE HRRR BRINGS EASTERN MT/WY CONVECTION INTO THE FAR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA. FOR THIS EVENING...WILL DROP POPS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE VALLEY TO 20 PERCENT WITH HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS MN AND THEN 30
TO 50 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION. REST OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
BIG ISSUE THIS PERIOD IS SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN THREAT...WHERE/WHEN.
SHORT RANGE MODELS NOT A HUGE HELP AS ALL HAVE VARIOUS PLACEMENTS
OF QPF THRU THE PD. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS CONTINUED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AT 850 MB INTO ERN ND/SD MOVING NOW INTO WRN MN. THIS
AREA SUPPORTED SCATTERED CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN EARLIER THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THAT HAS DISSIPATED. THIS AFTN DECENT SFC HEATING
AND SUN IN WCNTRL MN AND FAR SE ND SO HAVE SEEN SOME RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS IN WCNTRL MN FROM AN AREA THAT MOVED OUT OF
EAST CENTRAL SD. COULD SEE OTHER ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION FORM LATE
AFTN-EVE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. THIS MAY CONTINUE TONIGHT...THOUGH
IDEA IS FOR A TSTM COMPLEX TO FORM IN EASTERN MT AND MOVE INTO WRN
ND THIS EVE AND MAYBE INTO ERN ND LATE TONIGHT-FRI MORNING. WITH
ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES KEPT POPS IN THE CHC RANGE AND DID NOT GO
AS HIGH AS HPC QPF (1 INCH). EXPECT HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO BE
ISOLATED AND THUS NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT OR FRI AM. FRI
AFTN-EVENING IS A BETTER RISK OF WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS..ALL DEPENDING ON WHAT REMAINS OF ANY
MORNING PRECIP. BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTN WITH
MODEL MOS DEW PTS PROGGED INTO THE LOWER 70S AND HIGH TEMPS UPR
70S TO LOWER 80S PRODUCING CAPES IN THE 2-3K RANGE. THUS WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SEVERE RISK IN ERN ND/RRV 18Z FRI TO 06Z SAT. BULK
SHEAR NOT HUGE WITH BEST JET/SHEAR MORE SO IN CENTRAL-WRN NEBRASKA
INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. CHC OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN BETTER FRI
AFTN-NIGHT BUT DUE TO HUGE UNCERTAINTIES WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
WATCHES AND REFRESH HYDRO OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
UPPER TROUGH SHORT WAVE TO SLOWLY MOVE THRU SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
COULD PROVE TO THE BE WETTEST DAY IN NW/WCNTRL MN. CHC OF PRECIP
WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT IN ERN ND AND SUNDAY IN NW MN.
FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE A SHIFT TO A DRIER WEATHER
REGIME COULD BE IN THE OFFING...AT LEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS SOME UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. BEFORE THAT MAJOR GUIDANCE MOVES THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH AXIS THROUGH MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO...WITH POTENTIAL
DESTABILIZATION LEADING TO SOME SHRA EVEN THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS EARLY WEEK IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM LEADING
TO HIGHS ONLY NR 70 WITH LOWS POSSIBLY DIPPING BELOW 50 NORTHEAST
ND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARMING TREND WITH UPPER RIDGE BECOMING MORE
INVOLVED BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
THERE ARE SOME MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ND BEING MASKED
ON SATELLITE BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. IT APPEARS THESE LOWER
CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND WHILE THEY MAY CLIP
KDVL...THINK AIRFIELDS ALONG THE VALLEY AND POINTS EAST SHOULD
REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH AND EAST...AGAIN POSSIBLY
IMPACTING KDVL...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 25 KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1131 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
NO CHANGES TO THIS TAF PACKAGE. STILL EXPECTING MVFR TO IFR VIS
AFTER 05Z TONIGHT AT KCKV AND KCSV. THESE FLIGHT CATEGORIES SHOULD
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY 12Z FRIDAY.
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE MID-STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE SCATTERED ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF
PREVAILING TAF LINES.
WINDS WILL BE CALM TONIGHT AND LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY.
UNGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014/
UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE
IN THE MID STATE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40. 00Z OHX SOUNDING IS VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH A PWAT OF 1.64 INCHES AND AN LI AROUND -4.
THUS ANTICIPATED ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH
THE NIGHT. 22Z HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT
ACTIVITY...SO BASED ON ITS OUTPUT WILL ADJUST POPS SOMEWHAT WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-24 AND SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...HIGH PWAT
AIRMASS INDICATES LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. REST
OF FORECAST INCLUDING TEMPS AND CLOUDS APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
ISOLATED STORMS ARE STILL AROUND THE MID-STATE AT ISSUANCE. VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE MVFR TO IFR VIS
SETTLES IN FOR SEVERAL HOURS. KCKV AND KCSV WILL SEE THE MAJORITY
OF THESE VIS ISSUES...BUT BOTH SHOULD CLEAR UP BY 12Z FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY BUT
SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN PREVAILING LINES.
WINDS WILL BE CALM TONIGHT AND LIGHT OUT OF THE SW FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
UNGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014/
DISCUSSION...
BROKEN SHOWER COVERAGE IS OBSERVED ACROSS NRN AL AND EXTENDING
INTO FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOES EXTEND FROM AR
SE THROUGH CENTRAL MS WITH PVA TO THE NE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NE THIS EVENING BUT BOTH THE HRRR AND OVERALL MODEL
MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH OVERNIGHT. DYNAMICS
ALOFT DONT SEEM TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THE BROKEN TO WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...FROM WHAT I AM SEEING...MODEL GUIDANCE MIGHT
BE A TAD TOO LOW AND WILL THEREFORE WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.
ON FRIDAY...WE WILL SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF ANTI CYCLONIC RIDGING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN THE MORNING. STILL PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK WITHIN THE MODELS. BUT...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THAT MAY LIMIT THE
CONVECTION EARLY ON. BY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL INFLEXION POINT WILL SKIRT OFF TO THE
NE. FLOW CONTAINS MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WITH IMPULSES
WITHIN. MODEL MOISTURE IS ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE TOWARD 12Z. THIS
TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.
SO ALL IN ALL OVER THE SHORT TERM...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. TSTMS WILL
OF COURSE BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THE MORE UNIFORM VERTICAL FLOW
PATTERN TENDS TO CUT DOWN ON OUR CAPE VALUES.
FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
OVER THE NEXT FEW PERIODS THROUGH SATURDAY. WHEN APPLYING THE 850 MB
TEMPS AND PARCEL MIXING...THE GFS MAX TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH.
IN FACT...WHILE I`M AT IT...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CASE IN THE
EXTENDED AS WELL. SO...WILL GO AHEAD AND UNDERCUT MAX TEMPS
THROUGHOUT THE BULK OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. AS FOR LOW TEMPS...LITTLE
DEVIATION WILL BE USED.
IN THE EXTENDED FCST...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO BUILD JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. WEAK WESTERLIES WITH HIGH HEIGHT VALUES TO PREVAIL. CAPE WILL
INCREASE AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DECREASES. STILL SEEING SOME CAP
EROSION EVERY AFTERNOON BUT POPS OF 20 PERCENT WILL BE THE MAIN
TREND. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...A WEAKENING BOUNDARY
MAY REQUIRE A 30 POP HERE AND THERE.
AGAIN...FOR THE EXTENDED TEMPS...WILL TREND TOWARD COOLER THAN THE
ADVERTISED MAXES. 96 ON MONDAY FOR BNA LOOKS TOO HIGH EVEN WITH FULL
850 MB MIXING. EURO NUMBERS LOOK MORE BELIEVABLE.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
27
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
453 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Warm and breezy conditions can be expected across West Central Texas
again today. The thermal ridge will strongest west of the area
today, so temperatures this afternoon will be similar to yesterday
with highs topping out in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Morning low
clouds across central and southern sections will scatter out by mid
to late morning, with partly cloudy skies prevailing through
afternoon.
The dryline will set up across far eastern New Mexico into Southwest
Texas today and will mix east into far West Texas this afternoon. A
shortwave trough currently over the Four Corners region will track
east across the Central and Southern High Plains this evening. Lift
from the approaching short wave and temperatures along and ahead of
the dryline climbing into the upper 90s, should be sufficient to
weaken the CAP and allow thunderstorms to develop. Any storms that
develop will have the potential to become severe as the airmass
becomes very unstable this afternoon. Some of this activity may
reach far western counties towards evening. The RUC is the most
aggressive and brings activity into western sections this evening,
while the NAM dissipates convection just west of the area. The Texas
Tech WRF is dry. Feel reasonably confident to maintain isolated
thunder across far western portions of the Concho Valley and
Crockett county late this afternoon and to include slight POPs west
of a Haskell to Iraan line for this evening. A strong southerly low
level jet will develop this evening and may allow storms to hold
together through the late evening hours before weakening. Otherwise,
expect breezy conditions overnight with another round of low clouds
spreading north across much of the area after midnight. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the lower 70s.
JW
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Heights aloft will begin to build over our area on Saturday, as the
upper trough departs from the Southern Plains. Sunday through at
least the middle of next week, a broad mid-upper level ridge will
envelop most of the southern CONUS. This will be our dominant
weather influence, effectively shutting off rain chances. Will have
breezy conditions with south winds Saturday through Monday with lee
side surface trough in place. Wind speeds will be lower Tuesday-
Thursday with weaker surface pressure gradient. Low-level moisture
will be on a gradually decreasing trend. By Monday, late night/early
morning low cloud development should be restricted to our
southeastern counties. Also expect to have less of a diurnal cumulus
field. The 850 mb thermal ridge will expand a bit farther east into
our area this weekend, and then change little next week. Expect
temperatures for our area to be a few degrees warmer this weekend,
and then be in a steady-state pattern next week. These readings will
be just slightly above normal for the end of June and beginning of
July.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 91 72 93 74 94 / 5 10 10 10 10
San Angelo 91 72 95 73 96 / 10 10 10 10 10
Junction 89 73 92 72 93 / 5 5 10 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
236 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
over much of the region today, with some thunderstorms producing
torrential rainfall. Continued unsettled weather will continue
into Saturday. A drying trend will begin on Sunday, with more
summer-like temperatures expected through much of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS THE PRIMARY CONCERN...
Today into tonight: Another active weather day is expected across
the Inland Northwest as a moist frontal system pushes across the
region during the morning and early afternoon hours. This will be
followed by a disturbance at upper levels during the afternoon
into the evening hours. A cold front is pushing across western WA
at 2:00 AM this morning. This front will push into the basin
through the early morning hours and then into the ID Panhandle by
the late morning and early afternoon hours. This will result in
another surge of moisture across the region and keep dew points
up. Clouds should begin to break up behind the front and allow
some sun breaks to occur. The atmosphere will destabilize with a
upper level disturbance pushing into the region by the afternoon.
Pwats will also continue to be high and up between 0.90-1.00
inches. Thunderstorms that do develop in the afternoon are
expected to produce torrential rainfall. These thunderstorms will
likely develop over the Cascades and into the western basin early
in the afternoon and continue across eastern WA into the ID
Panhandle through the late afternoon and evening hours. There will
be the potential for some small stream and urban flooding under
these heavy rain shafts. Ponding of water and reduced visibility
will also be a concern with the thunderstorms.
Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms will be less numerous with the
best instability across the northern mtns of eastern WA and in
the ID Panhandle. These thunderstorms will also be capable of
producing heavy rain, but Pwats will be a bit less closer to 0.70
inches by this time. This should result in a lesser risk for
flooding impacts, but it will be the third day in a row of
significant rainfall for these areas. There will be a possibility
for some showers out into the basin as well, but dew points will
be on the way down as drier air finally begins to filter into the
region. Rain showers and cloud cover will result in below normal
high temperatures both today and Saturday. /SVH
Saturday Night through Sunday Night: The Inland Northwest will be
dealing with the exit of one weather disturbance on Saturday
night, followed by a final, weaker disturbance Sunday
afternoon. Lingering rainfall, with possible thunderstorms, will
be possible over far eastern Washington in the Idaho Panhandle, at
least through late evening. The next disturbance comes through
Sunday afternoon, but the ridge will start to muscle its way into
the region. This will keep most precipitation confined to the
higher terrain of northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle.
These look like they will die off with the loss of daytime
heating, and the cloud cover should also be diminishing as well.
One final thing that may be a concern will be any fog formation
for the favored northern valleys of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle. Diminishing cloud cover combined with light winds and plenty
of low level moisture could contribute to fog for a few hours
Sunday night. ty
Monday through Friday...Models are generally in good agreement
Monday through Wednesday/night...then start to fall apart. High
pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest as a deep low
pressure system moves towards the B.C. Coast. By Wednesday
afternoon the ridge axis will get pushed east of the Continental
Divide. This is where the operational models start to see some
differences. The Ensemble means/NAEFS seem to offer a consensus of
keeping the low closed through Friday...before opening the low
into a wave as it moves through the Pacific Northwest on Saturday.
For now this solution is what we will lean toward for the end of
the extended period but confidence for Friday/Saturday is less
than average.
Monday through Wednesday with the ridge over the region we expect
a warming and drying trend. Temperatures will be within a degree
or two either side of normal on Monday before warming above normal
Tuesday and Wednesday. One thing to keep an eye on is just how low
the minimum relative humidity gets during the day what the
overnight recoveries will be on mid-slopes. Looks like a small
dose of summer.
By Thursday and Friday the flow will shift to southwesterly as the
low moves towards the coast. This will open the door for increased
moisture moving in off the Pacific. Some weak vorticity lobes will
most likely spin off the main low. Combine these weak forcing
mechanisms with daytime heating and orographics and some low end
pops have been added to the Panhandle mountains for the
afternoons. Temperatures will cool off by several degrees but
remain on the warm side of normal. /Tobin
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Kept the aviation forecasts rather heavy handed and
brief in the mention of showers at times in order to better
attempt some timing between weather systems producing the
precipitation. Tonight we have an exiting system working its
way through a good number of the aviation forecast points while
a second system is making an approach and is showing up quite
well making landfall on the coast. That second system will
influence the morning and afternoon hours for Friday. Some
thunder mentioned in the afternoon as well. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 67 54 71 50 72 51 / 50 60 40 30 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 64 52 69 48 71 48 / 60 60 50 40 10 10
Pullman 66 51 69 46 70 45 / 60 60 30 10 10 10
Lewiston 72 57 76 54 77 53 / 60 60 30 10 10 10
Colville 68 52 70 48 72 49 / 70 70 60 40 10 10
Sandpoint 63 51 65 46 68 45 / 70 70 60 50 20 10
Kellogg 61 49 62 46 65 47 / 60 60 60 40 20 10
Moses Lake 78 57 80 54 80 53 / 60 30 20 10 0 10
Wenatchee 76 59 78 56 79 56 / 60 30 20 10 0 10
Omak 76 55 77 51 78 52 / 50 40 30 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
236 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
over much of the region today, with some thunderstorms producing
torrential rainfall. Continued unsettled weather will continue
into Saturday. A drying trend will begin on Sunday, with more
summer-like temperatures expected through much of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS THE PRIMARY CONCERN...
Today into tonight: Another active weather day is expected across
the Inland Northwest as a moist frontal system pushes across the
region during the morning and early afternoon hours. This will be
followed by a disturbance at upper levels during the afternoon
into the evening hours. A cold front is pushing across western WA
at 2:00 AM this morning. This front will push into the basin
through the early morning hours and then into the ID Panhandle by
the late morning and early afternoon hours. This will result in
another surge of moisture across the region and keep dew points
up. Clouds should begin to break up behind the front and allow
some sun breaks to occur. The atmosphere will destabilize with a
upper level disturbance pushing into the region by the afternoon.
Pwats will also continue to be high and up between 0.90-1.00
inches. Thunderstorms that do develop in the afternoon are
expected to produce torrential rainfall. These thunderstorms will
likely develop over the Cascades and into the western basin early
in the afternoon and continue across eastern WA into the ID
Panhandle through the late afternoon and evening hours. There will
be the potential for some small stream and urban flooding under
these heavy rain shafts. Ponding of water and reduced visibility
will also be a concern with the thunderstorms.
Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms will be less numerous with the
best instability across the northern mtns of eastern WA and in
the ID Panhandle. These thunderstorms will also be capable of
producing heavy rain, but Pwats will be a bit less closer to 0.70
inches by this time. This should result in a lesser risk for
flooding impacts, but it will be the third day in a row of
significant rainfall for these areas. There will be a possibility
for some showers out into the basin as well, but dew points will
be on the way down as drier air finally begins to filter into the
region. Rain showers and cloud cover will result in below normal
high temperatures both today and Saturday. /SVH
Saturday Night through Sunday Night: The Inland Northwest will be
dealing with the exit of one weather disturbance on Saturday
night, followed by a final, weaker disturbance Sunday
afternoon. Lingering rainfall, with possible thunderstorms, will
be possible over far eastern Washington in the Idaho Panhandle, at
least through late evening. The next disturbance comes through
Sunday afternoon, but the ridge will start to muscle its way into
the region. This will keep most precipitation confined to the
higher terrain of northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle.
These look like they will die off with the loss of daytime
heating, and the cloud cover should also be diminishing as well.
One final thing that may be a concern will be any fog formation
for the favored northern valleys of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle. Diminishing cloud cover combined with light winds and plenty
of low level moisture could contribute to fog for a few hours
Sunday night. ty
Monday through Friday...Models are generally in good agreement
Monday through Wednesday/night...then start to fall apart. High
pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest as a deep low
pressure system moves towards the B.C. Coast. By Wednesday
afternoon the ridge axis will get pushed east of the Continental
Divide. This is where the operational models start to see some
differences. The Ensemble means/NAEFS seem to offer a consensus of
keeping the low closed through Friday...before opening the low
into a wave as it moves through the Pacific Northwest on Saturday.
For now this solution is what we will lean toward for the end of
the extended period but confidence for Friday/Saturday is less
than average.
Monday through Wednesday with the ridge over the region we expect
a warming and drying trend. Temperatures will be within a degree
or two either side of normal on Monday before warming above normal
Tuesday and Wednesday. One thing to keep an eye on is just how low
the minimum relative humidity gets during the day what the
overnight recoveries will be on mid-slopes. Looks like a small
dose of summer.
By Thursday and Friday the flow will shift to southwesterly as the
low moves towards the coast. This will open the door for increased
moisture moving in off the Pacific. Some weak vorticity lobes will
most likely spin off the main low. Combine these weak forcing
mechanisms with daytime heating and orographics and some low end
pops have been added to the Panhandle mountains for the
afternoons. Temperatures will cool off by several degrees but
remain on the warm side of normal. /Tobin
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Kept the aviation forecasts rather heavy handed and
brief in the mention of showers at times in order to better
attempt some timing between weather systems producing the
precipitation. Tonight we have an exiting system working its
way through a good number of the aviation forecast points while
a second system is making an approach and is showing up quite
well making landfall on the coast. That second system will
influence the morning and afternoon hours for Friday. Some
thunder mentioned in the afternoon as well. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 67 54 71 50 72 51 / 50 60 40 30 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 64 52 69 48 71 48 / 60 60 50 40 10 10
Pullman 66 51 69 46 70 45 / 60 60 30 10 10 10
Lewiston 72 57 76 54 77 53 / 60 60 30 10 10 10
Colville 68 52 70 48 72 49 / 70 70 60 40 10 10
Sandpoint 63 51 65 46 68 45 / 70 70 60 50 20 10
Kellogg 61 49 62 46 65 47 / 60 60 60 40 20 10
Moses Lake 78 57 80 54 80 53 / 60 30 20 10 0 10
Wenatchee 76 59 78 56 79 56 / 60 30 20 10 0 10
Omak 76 55 77 51 78 52 / 50 40 30 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
236 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
over much of the region today, with some thunderstorms producing
torrential rainfall. Continued unsettled weather will continue
into Saturday. A drying trend will begin on Sunday, with more
summer-like temperatures expected through much of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS THE PRIMARY CONCERN...
Today into tonight: Another active weather day is expected across
the Inland Northwest as a moist frontal system pushes across the
region during the morning and early afternoon hours. This will be
followed by a disturbance at upper levels during the afternoon
into the evening hours. A cold front is pushing across western WA
at 2:00 AM this morning. This front will push into the basin
through the early morning hours and then into the ID Panhandle by
the late morning and early afternoon hours. This will result in
another surge of moisture across the region and keep dew points
up. Clouds should begin to break up behind the front and allow
some sun breaks to occur. The atmosphere will destabilize with a
upper level disturbance pushing into the region by the afternoon.
Pwats will also continue to be high and up between 0.90-1.00
inches. Thunderstorms that do develop in the afternoon are
expected to produce torrential rainfall. These thunderstorms will
likely develop over the Cascades and into the western basin early
in the afternoon and continue across eastern WA into the ID
Panhandle through the late afternoon and evening hours. There will
be the potential for some small stream and urban flooding under
these heavy rain shafts. Ponding of water and reduced visibility
will also be a concern with the thunderstorms.
Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms will be less numerous with the
best instability across the northern mtns of eastern WA and in
the ID Panhandle. These thunderstorms will also be capable of
producing heavy rain, but Pwats will be a bit less closer to 0.70
inches by this time. This should result in a lesser risk for
flooding impacts, but it will be the third day in a row of
significant rainfall for these areas. There will be a possibility
for some showers out into the basin as well, but dew points will
be on the way down as drier air finally begins to filter into the
region. Rain showers and cloud cover will result in below normal
high temperatures both today and Saturday. /SVH
Saturday Night through Sunday Night: The Inland Northwest will be
dealing with the exit of one weather disturbance on Saturday
night, followed by a final, weaker disturbance Sunday
afternoon. Lingering rainfall, with possible thunderstorms, will
be possible over far eastern Washington in the Idaho Panhandle, at
least through late evening. The next disturbance comes through
Sunday afternoon, but the ridge will start to muscle its way into
the region. This will keep most precipitation confined to the
higher terrain of northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle.
These look like they will die off with the loss of daytime
heating, and the cloud cover should also be diminishing as well.
One final thing that may be a concern will be any fog formation
for the favored northern valleys of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle. Diminishing cloud cover combined with light winds and plenty
of low level moisture could contribute to fog for a few hours
Sunday night. ty
Monday through Friday...Models are generally in good agreement
Monday through Wednesday/night...then start to fall apart. High
pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest as a deep low
pressure system moves towards the B.C. Coast. By Wednesday
afternoon the ridge axis will get pushed east of the Continental
Divide. This is where the operational models start to see some
differences. The Ensemble means/NAEFS seem to offer a consensus of
keeping the low closed through Friday...before opening the low
into a wave as it moves through the Pacific Northwest on Saturday.
For now this solution is what we will lean toward for the end of
the extended period but confidence for Friday/Saturday is less
than average.
Monday through Wednesday with the ridge over the region we expect
a warming and drying trend. Temperatures will be within a degree
or two either side of normal on Monday before warming above normal
Tuesday and Wednesday. One thing to keep an eye on is just how low
the minimum relative humidity gets during the day what the
overnight recoveries will be on mid-slopes. Looks like a small
dose of summer.
By Thursday and Friday the flow will shift to southwesterly as the
low moves towards the coast. This will open the door for increased
moisture moving in off the Pacific. Some weak vorticity lobes will
most likely spin off the main low. Combine these weak forcing
mechanisms with daytime heating and orographics and some low end
pops have been added to the Panhandle mountains for the
afternoons. Temperatures will cool off by several degrees but
remain on the warm side of normal. /Tobin
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Kept the aviation forecasts rather heavy handed and
brief in the mention of showers at times in order to better
attempt some timing between weather systems producing the
precipitation. Tonight we have an exiting system working its
way through a good number of the aviation forecast points while
a second system is making an approach and is showing up quite
well making landfall on the coast. That second system will
influence the morning and afternoon hours for Friday. Some
thunder mentioned in the afternoon as well. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 67 54 71 50 72 51 / 50 60 40 30 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 64 52 69 48 71 48 / 60 60 50 40 10 10
Pullman 66 51 69 46 70 45 / 60 60 30 10 10 10
Lewiston 72 57 76 54 77 53 / 60 60 30 10 10 10
Colville 68 52 70 48 72 49 / 70 70 60 40 10 10
Sandpoint 63 51 65 46 68 45 / 70 70 60 50 20 10
Kellogg 61 49 62 46 65 47 / 60 60 60 40 20 10
Moses Lake 78 57 80 54 80 53 / 60 30 20 10 0 10
Wenatchee 76 59 78 56 79 56 / 60 30 20 10 0 10
Omak 76 55 77 51 78 52 / 50 40 30 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
236 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
over much of the region today, with some thunderstorms producing
torrential rainfall. Continued unsettled weather will continue
into Saturday. A drying trend will begin on Sunday, with more
summer-like temperatures expected through much of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS THE PRIMARY CONCERN...
Today into tonight: Another active weather day is expected across
the Inland Northwest as a moist frontal system pushes across the
region during the morning and early afternoon hours. This will be
followed by a disturbance at upper levels during the afternoon
into the evening hours. A cold front is pushing across western WA
at 2:00 AM this morning. This front will push into the basin
through the early morning hours and then into the ID Panhandle by
the late morning and early afternoon hours. This will result in
another surge of moisture across the region and keep dew points
up. Clouds should begin to break up behind the front and allow
some sun breaks to occur. The atmosphere will destabilize with a
upper level disturbance pushing into the region by the afternoon.
Pwats will also continue to be high and up between 0.90-1.00
inches. Thunderstorms that do develop in the afternoon are
expected to produce torrential rainfall. These thunderstorms will
likely develop over the Cascades and into the western basin early
in the afternoon and continue across eastern WA into the ID
Panhandle through the late afternoon and evening hours. There will
be the potential for some small stream and urban flooding under
these heavy rain shafts. Ponding of water and reduced visibility
will also be a concern with the thunderstorms.
Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms will be less numerous with the
best instability across the northern mtns of eastern WA and in
the ID Panhandle. These thunderstorms will also be capable of
producing heavy rain, but Pwats will be a bit less closer to 0.70
inches by this time. This should result in a lesser risk for
flooding impacts, but it will be the third day in a row of
significant rainfall for these areas. There will be a possibility
for some showers out into the basin as well, but dew points will
be on the way down as drier air finally begins to filter into the
region. Rain showers and cloud cover will result in below normal
high temperatures both today and Saturday. /SVH
Saturday Night through Sunday Night: The Inland Northwest will be
dealing with the exit of one weather disturbance on Saturday
night, followed by a final, weaker disturbance Sunday
afternoon. Lingering rainfall, with possible thunderstorms, will
be possible over far eastern Washington in the Idaho Panhandle, at
least through late evening. The next disturbance comes through
Sunday afternoon, but the ridge will start to muscle its way into
the region. This will keep most precipitation confined to the
higher terrain of northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle.
These look like they will die off with the loss of daytime
heating, and the cloud cover should also be diminishing as well.
One final thing that may be a concern will be any fog formation
for the favored northern valleys of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle. Diminishing cloud cover combined with light winds and plenty
of low level moisture could contribute to fog for a few hours
Sunday night. ty
Monday through Friday...Models are generally in good agreement
Monday through Wednesday/night...then start to fall apart. High
pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest as a deep low
pressure system moves towards the B.C. Coast. By Wednesday
afternoon the ridge axis will get pushed east of the Continental
Divide. This is where the operational models start to see some
differences. The Ensemble means/NAEFS seem to offer a consensus of
keeping the low closed through Friday...before opening the low
into a wave as it moves through the Pacific Northwest on Saturday.
For now this solution is what we will lean toward for the end of
the extended period but confidence for Friday/Saturday is less
than average.
Monday through Wednesday with the ridge over the region we expect
a warming and drying trend. Temperatures will be within a degree
or two either side of normal on Monday before warming above normal
Tuesday and Wednesday. One thing to keep an eye on is just how low
the minimum relative humidity gets during the day what the
overnight recoveries will be on mid-slopes. Looks like a small
dose of summer.
By Thursday and Friday the flow will shift to southwesterly as the
low moves towards the coast. This will open the door for increased
moisture moving in off the Pacific. Some weak vorticity lobes will
most likely spin off the main low. Combine these weak forcing
mechanisms with daytime heating and orographics and some low end
pops have been added to the Panhandle mountains for the
afternoons. Temperatures will cool off by several degrees but
remain on the warm side of normal. /Tobin
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Kept the aviation forecasts rather heavy handed and
brief in the mention of showers at times in order to better
attempt some timing between weather systems producing the
precipitation. Tonight we have an exiting system working its
way through a good number of the aviation forecast points while
a second system is making an approach and is showing up quite
well making landfall on the coast. That second system will
influence the morning and afternoon hours for Friday. Some
thunder mentioned in the afternoon as well. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 67 54 71 50 72 51 / 50 60 40 30 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 64 52 69 48 71 48 / 60 60 50 40 10 10
Pullman 66 51 69 46 70 45 / 60 60 30 10 10 10
Lewiston 72 57 76 54 77 53 / 60 60 30 10 10 10
Colville 68 52 70 48 72 49 / 70 70 60 40 10 10
Sandpoint 63 51 65 46 68 45 / 70 70 60 50 20 10
Kellogg 61 49 62 46 65 47 / 60 60 60 40 20 10
Moses Lake 78 57 80 54 80 53 / 60 30 20 10 0 10
Wenatchee 76 59 78 56 79 56 / 60 30 20 10 0 10
Omak 76 55 77 51 78 52 / 50 40 30 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1022 PM PDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Showery weather with a few thunderstorms will continue through
Friday over most of the region. Lingering showers will continue
over the northeast mountains and Idaho Panhandle into Saturday
while the rest of the area begins to dry out. A return to drier
and warmer summer-like weather is expected through much of next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Some of the more recent model runs that have arrived this evening,
especially the hourly HRRR model runs suggest increased pops for
Friday when another wet frontal zone makes a similar soutwest to
northeast approach. The grids may do a better job of showing the
transition between these two weather systems than the text
products do, especially in addressing the timing of intervals of
no precipitation between them. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Kept the aviation forecasts rather heavy handed and
brief in the mention of showers at times in order to better
attempt some timing between weather systems producing the
precipitation. Tonight we have an exiting system working its
way through a good number of the aviation forecast points while
a second system is making an approach and is showing up quite
well making landfall on the coast. That second system will
influence the morning and afternoon hours for Friday. Some
thunder mentioned in the afternoon as well. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 55 72 53 71 50 72 / 60 50 40 30 20 10
Coeur d`Alene 53 69 51 69 48 70 / 50 50 60 50 30 10
Pullman 53 70 50 69 46 69 / 50 30 30 30 10 10
Lewiston 57 78 56 76 54 77 / 60 40 30 20 10 10
Colville 53 74 51 70 48 74 / 70 50 50 60 40 10
Sandpoint 52 67 50 65 46 68 / 50 60 60 60 40 20
Kellogg 51 67 50 62 46 64 / 50 50 50 70 40 20
Moses Lake 59 81 55 80 54 79 / 20 40 10 10 10 0
Wenatchee 59 79 57 78 56 79 / 30 40 10 10 10 0
Omak 56 79 53 77 51 78 / 30 30 30 30 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
339 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND
WHERE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP.
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR AND 500MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SLOW MOVING
TROUGH OVER WESTERN IOWA DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. A BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH ALONG THE NOSE OF A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
JET. 0-3KM MUCAPE IS FAIRLY WEAK AT 500-1000 J/KG AND IS FORECAST
TO STAY AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AT 20KTS...NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THIS
CONVECTION TO BECOME UNRULY THIS MORNING.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS MORNING BEHIND THIS BAND...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY INITIATE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. 27.06Z RAP
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO DEEP WIND
SHEAR. WITH SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER UP AROUND
1.50-2.00INCHES...EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM TODAYS/TONIGHT
CONVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THE MAIN STORY OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD IS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING APPEARS
TO BE THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WITH BOTH EVENTS LIKELY
INITIATING TO OUR WEST AND THEN COMING THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR SATURDAY...CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL INITIATE ALONG/AHEAD
OF A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT IN
WESTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPORT ANY CONVECTION TRACKING TO
THE EAST AS PART OF A SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. DEEP SHEAR
DOES NOT LOOK THAT GREAT...BUT IS FAIRLY DECENT IN THE LOWEST 3KM
WHICH MAY SUPPORT MORE OF A WIND THREAT. THE 27.00Z GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGER 500-300MB QG FORCING WILL BE OUT IN
WESTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA IN THE AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS IT AS IT MOVES
IT INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE 27.00Z GFS DOES APPEAR
TO BE ODD MODEL OUT AS IT IS SLOWER AND MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH QPF
AMOUNTS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS HITTING THE MID/UPPER 70S...WHICH
IS WAY TOO HIGH. OVERALL THINKING IS THAT TIMING WILL BE THE
BIGGEST ISSUE WITH HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE AS
THE LATER IN THE NIGHT THAT THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...THE LESS
LIKELY IT IS TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS/HEAVY RAIN
LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS TO THE REGION IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
IF YOU DISCOUNT THE 27.00Z GFS...MUCH OF SUNDAY SHOULD END UP DRY
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION AGAIN OCCURRING OUT
TOWARD SIOUX FALLS SD ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE MUCH MORE UNSTABLE THAN WHAT
WE HAVE FOR SATURDAY WHICH...ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
LLJ...SHOULD HELP TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION RUNNING EAST INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY EVENING. THE QUESTION FOR THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE
WITH HOW DEEP THE WIND SHEAR WILL BE AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH.
A STRONG 50-80KT 500MB JET STREAK WILL BE ROUNDING THE TROUGH AND
MOVING INTO MINNESOTA SUNDAY EVENING...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE TRAILING BEHIND THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WHERE THE STORMS DEVELOP. 0-3KM SHEAR STILL LOOKS STRONG AT
25-40KTS...SO WIND MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN HAZARD AGAIN. WHILE
THE STRONGER 0-6KM SHEAR APPEARS TO LAG BEHIND THE
CONVECTION...THE 0-1KM SHEAR/HELICITY ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. SO...CAN NOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME QLCS TYPE TORNADOES SIMILAR TO
WHAT OCCURRED BACK ON THE 16TH.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MONDAY AND SEE WHERE THE COLD FRONT
ENDS UP DURING THE DAY. THE 27.00Z ECMWF IS A TAD SLOWER THAN THE
GFS/GEM AND KEEPS SOME WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE
DAY ALONG THE FRONT. BEYOND THAT...THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS
FAIRLY DECENT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION/WARM AIR TO
DEAL WITH. HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S GOING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF I-90 AS
OF 05Z...ASSOCIATED WITH MORE HUMID AIR ADVANCING NORTHWARD. THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WHILE SPREADING
NORTHWARD...IMPACTING BOTH TAF SITES FROM THE 06-14Z PERIOD. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER UNTIL 12Z...HAVE INCLUDED VCTS. ISOLATED
COVERAGE OF THE STORMS PRECLUDES STRAIGHT TS MENTION. VISIBILITIES
ARE LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR...EITHER FROM A RESULT OF PRECIPITATION
RATE OR FROM THE DEVELOPMENT OF BR. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIFT
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BY 14Z...RESULTING IN A BREAK. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN WESTERN IOWA WILL THEN MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST MN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALLOWING MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE ONLY HIGH ENOUGH
TO MENTION VCTS AT RST. MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY MAY STAY WEST OF
LA CROSSE SO ONLY VCSH MENTIONED THERE. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED...SO ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN AND
THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH...ANTICIPATING THE PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH. THEREFORE...HAVE A DRY FORECAST AFTER 02Z. OVERALL
ANTICIPATING CEILINGS TO STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME MAINLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
TODAY WITH ANY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR FLASH
FLOODING MAY COME IN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A NUMBER OF SYSTEMS
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO AN AIR MASS THAT IS LOADED WITH
MOISTURE. WITH RIVERS ALREADY ELEVATED DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAIN...SOME ADDITIONAL RISES MAY OCCUR. THE MISSISSIPPI WILL
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO RUN OFF UPSTREAM FROM
LAST WEEKS RAINFALL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
426 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY NEAR THE COLORADO AND UTAH BORDER
AND WILL CROSS THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
VERTICAL VELOCITIES SHOWING MODEST ASCENT WILL OCCUR THROUGH
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST THEREAFTER. THIS ASCENT...COUPLED WITH DAY TIME HEATING...
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT IN MOST AREAS
TODAY. FORECAST REFLECTIVITIES FROM THE LAST FEW HRRR RUNS SEEM TO
HAVE A REASONABLE DEPICTION OF THIS ACTIVITY OVERALL WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS /SOME SEVERE/ AGAIN EXPECTED EAST OF THE URBAN
CORRIDOR WHERE RICHER MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES
WILL EXIST. CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE PALMER DIVIDE
AREA...MODELS SHOW DRIER LOW LEVELS LATER TODAY IMPLYING THAT
HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALLER RAIN CHANCES WILL
PREVAIL IN THOSE LOCALES. MOISTURE HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY BACK
INTO THE DENVER AREA THE LAST LITTLE WHILE AS SURFACE WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE NORTH. DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE UPTICK AND GPS
PRECIPITABLE WATER AT BOULDER HAS INCREASED 0.13 INCHES IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BANKING ON THIS MOISTENING BEING A TEMPORARY
SITUATION WITH DRYING EXPECTED MID TO LATE MORNING PRODUCING THE
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SHOWN IN THE MODELS. WITH THE QQ SUBSIDENCE
TAKING HOLD LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT CLEARING
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED MUCH AS SHOW IN THE WRF/CIRA FORECAST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE SOME LINGERING
OROGRAPHIC ACTIVITY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE TROUGH. MODERATELY FAST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP STORMS
MOVING ALONG TO MINIMIZE FLOODING CONCERNS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014
ON SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING WELL EAST OF THE STATE. THE FORMATION OF A
LEESLOPE MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCES DOWNSLOPE FLOW DURING THE MORNING
HOURS IN AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. NAM...GFS...ECMWF
AND GEM SHOW THIS DRY WESTERLY FLOW LASTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...
ALTHOUGH THESE SAME MODELS SHOW A SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY WIND
FARTHER OUT ON THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY WHICH DOES NOT APPARENT
TO REPLENISH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUSHED OUT BY THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW EARLIER IN THE DAY. SO SATURDAY SHOULD BE STORM-FREE EVEN IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY AS MID-LEVELS LOOK SUBSIDENT. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES NEAR AVERAGE MAX TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ON
THE PLAINS AND 60 AND 70S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. SATURDAY NIGHT
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE PLAINS STRENGTHENS WITH PRESSURE
FALLS UP IN NEBRASKA. THIS DRAWS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS
INDICATED BY THETA-E RIDGING ALONG THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER.
ON SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE REGION WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING BY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS COULD SEE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ON THE MTN
RIDGES AND EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
AT THEIR STRONGEST. SUNDAY SHOULD START OUT DRY WITH POST-TROUGH
SUBSIDENCE...BUT DURING AFTERNOON CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A STEADY
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER. THE GFS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE NAM AND EC...SHOW A WEAK
BOUNDARY OF SOME KIND...PERHAPS A DRY LINE OR A SFC TROUGH...
STRADDLING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. THIS BNDRY...ASSUMING
ITS REAL...COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR A FEW HIGH BASED T-STORMS
CAPABLE OF STG GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF SHOWER. OTHERWISE SUNDAY LOOKS
DRY AND QUITE WARM...IF NOT HOT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND UPPER 60S TO
MID 80S ACRS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. HOWEVER WITH THE MODEST COOLING
ALOFT AND THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON...FEEL
MORE COMFORTABLE WITH GOING WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS...SAY THE
LOWER TO MID 90S ON THE PLAINS.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO ON NORTH-NORTHEAST SFC
WINDS AROUND MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THIS FRONTAL BNDRY RACING SOUTH
TO THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO LINE BY AROUND 12Z/MON. MOST MODELS SHOW
THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS TO BE DRY...HOWEVER THE NAM SHOWS ELEVATED
DEWPT AND RH VALUES SPREADING SOUTHWARD OVER NERN COLO BEHIND THE
FRONT DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS POSSIBLY RESULTING
IN A DECK OF STRATUS ACROSS THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE
THE ADVANCING AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER BY SEVERAL DEGS. BY
AFTERNOON...A STG SFC HIGH TRACKING ACRS WY CAUSES SFC WINDS EAST
OF THE CO FRONT RANGE TO TURN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY...AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WE COULD SEE LOW TOP CONVECTION OVER AND ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES...PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT SINCE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER APPEARS QUITE DRY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE ON MONDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO COOL AS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS SHOW A REINFORCING SURGE OF
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BACKING INTO NERN COLORADO LATE MONDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY PRODUCING A LOW CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF NERN COLORADO BY
MORNING. LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST. MOISTURE BROUGHT NWRD ON S-SELY BNDRY
LAYER FLOW MAY MAKE FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY TOGETHER WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. AT THIS TIME THE ODDS OF SEEING
WETTING RAINFALL APPEARS LOW AS THE AMBIENT AIRMASS APPEARS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY EVEN COOLER YET PARTICULARLY
EAST OF THE MTNS WITH READINGS AS MUCH AS 4-5 DEGS C BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THE DATE.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST IS PROGGED TO
MIGRATE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO. AS THE RIDGE PASSES
BY...SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE APPEARS TO DRAW UP
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR FROM A TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM
WHICH MODELS SHOW GAINING STRENGTH OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO.
THIS SETUP SOMEWHAT RESEMBLES A FLOW PATTERN COMMONLY OBSERVED
DURING OUR SUMMER MONSOON SEASON/ABOUT THE 2ND WEEK IN JULY TO
AROUND THE 2ND WEEK IN AUGUST/. LIGHT STEERING WINDS AND ELEVATED
PW VALUES COULD SPAWN SCATTERED LATE DAY T-STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA. WILL NOT EVEN ATTEMPT TO PIN
DOWN WHEN AND WHERE THIS MAY OCCUR. FOR NOW...SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF T-STORMS WILL SUFFICE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014
NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR CONCERNS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE A BIT EARLIER TODAY...LATE MORNING...
WITH MICROBURSTS/WIND SHEAR BEING THE MAIN ISSUE IF LOW LEVELS DRY
OUT AS EXPECTED. ASIDE FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WINDS SHOULD
FAVOR THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT TODAY WITH DRAINAGE FLOW EXPECTED
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
933 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.UPDATE...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
OREGON/WASHINGTON THIS MORNING. TWO MAIN AREAS OF SHOWERS IN
IDAHO. FIRST IN NORTHEAST CORNER MAINLY VICINITY AND NORTHEAST OF
IDAHO FALLS. 2ND MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST IDAHO THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EASTERN HIGHLANDS IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. INSTABILITY
INCREASES DURING THE DAY PARTICULARLY IN NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST
AREA PER LATEST NAM. HAVE PUSHED POPS UPWARD THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND ADJUSTED QPF UPWARD SLIGHTLY AS WELL. DMH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING OVER THE CASCADES
SHOULD HELP TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. NAM SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AROUND MID-MORNING WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN EARLY START TO
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THAT AREA. HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS SHOWERS ALSO
DEVELOPING AROUND THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN OVER IDAHO FALLS. AS THE
SHORTWAVE NEARS...CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
IDAHO AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST PWATS OF
0.8 TO 1.0 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY
OCCUR. WIND SPEEDS SUPPORT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOW-END OF THE SCALE.
LINGERING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TOMORROW MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING
MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY ZONAL AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SETTLE IN. STARTING
MONDAY...MODELS SHOWING STRONG SUPPORT FOR UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE PAC NW AND AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS
SHOULD KEEP US DRY AND WARM THROUGH MID-WEEK. BY THEN THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON PRECIP. HINSBERGER
AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT MOVING OVER
SOUTHEAST IDAHO AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE PLAIN THIS
MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP VICINITY OF KSUN
18Z...KIDA 19Z...AND KPIH AND KBYI 20Z AND CONTINUES THROUGH 02Z.
SATURDAY...THE STORM TRACK BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR KSUN EARLY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. RS
FIRE WEATHER...ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
WEST WINDS ALOFT WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS NOON TIME THROUGH EARLY EVENING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
05 TO .20 INCH POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
HIGHLAND AREAS. SATURDAY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE STORM TRACK
WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN THE SALMON-CHALLIS
FOREST AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. RS
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING IDZ021.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
648 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
WEAK WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA AND WILL LIFT NORTH
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
AFFECT THE AREA. A SIGNIFICANT NEG TILT TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SECOND UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND ALSO
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE MON AND TUE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
WEAK MCV IN SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH 15Z. THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS CLUSTER MOVING NORTHWARD...BUT MAINLY STRATIFORM PRECIP
TRAILS BEHIND.
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL TRANSITION EAST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXPECTING THE SOUTHWEST
TO DRY OUT PAST 18Z. HAVE THE HIGHER POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AS THE DEEPER FORCING MOVES INTO EASTERN IOWA WITH THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE. NO SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE STATE
AND IS EVIDENT THE DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE REMAINS PRESENT PER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT DSM. WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS RANGING AROUND
12KFT TO NEAR 13KFT AND THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.50 TO
1.75 INCH RANGE...SO STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS TODAY AS GENERALLY THE 1 TO NEAR 3 INCH PER
HOUR RATES ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE STORM PROGRESSION LOOKS TO BE
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS TODAY PER CORFIDI VECTORS...SO THE HEAVY RAIN
OVER ONE AREA SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED UNLESS BACK-BUILDING OCCURS LIKE
THURSDAY. THE 27.05Z HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...ALBEIT ROUGHLY TWO HOURS TOO FAST...BUT LEANED TOWARD THE
HRRR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR POP/WX TRENDS.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF IA WHERE
THERE IS STRONGER FORCING. NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF IA. THE COLD
FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRENGTHENING JET STREAM...OVER 80
KTS, WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION BOTH SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE BODY
OF THE ZONES. DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER THICKNESS...OVER 4 KM AND PWAT
VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS PRETTY HIGH WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE NEAR 5000 J/KG. THOUGH NOT PERFECT, THE
HODOGRAPHS ARE FAVORABLE WITH DECENT SHEAR...BOTH SPEED AND
DIRECTION...IN PLACE.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ON TAP FROM THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
ON. THE COLDEST AIR WILL MISS IA TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE COOLING
TREND DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL LAST ALL THAT LONG EITHER. DON`T
EXPECT TO SEE MORE THAN TWO OR THREE DAYS BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...27/12Z
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST...BUT MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED OVER
ANY TAF SITE AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN COVERAGE...SO LEFT OUT ANY
MENTION OF MVFR/IFR EXCEPT AT FOD LATER TONIGHT WITH NEXT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
WITH HIGH PWATS AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF WEATHER SYSTEM...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS FAIRLY HIGH. RAINFALL OF THE PAST DAY
OR SO HAS MOISTENED SOILS SO THE FFG IS DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL COME SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THE CURRENT PATTERN GIVES AT LEAST SOME RISK TO THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MS JUN 14
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS JUN 14
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
HYDROLOGY...MS JUN 14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
627 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
07Z water vapor imagery and profiler data shows a well defined MCV
over the MO river. Meanwhile a linear MCS is progressing east
through southern NEB. A longer wavelength upper trough could be seen
in water vapor from the four corners northwest into ID. Surface
observations show low pressure in the lee of the Rockies with higher
MSLP pressure over the MS river valley. A moist airmass remains over
the forecast area with dewpoint temps in the lower 70s.
The forecast for this morning will be a battle between the MCS to
the west and warming mid level temps. Regional radar imagery has
shown newer development to the south of the convection has had a
difficult time intensifying and the HRRR/RAP have been gradually
backing off on bringing the storms very far into north central KS.
Think that subsidence just to the west of the MCV over the MO river
may also play a roll in how far convection moves east. In short the
latest RAP forecast soundings indicate that by 12Z 700 MB temps will
warm to around 12C capping a surface parcel and what little elevated
instability there is gradually diminishing. Will carry a chance for
precip across the northern and northwest counties this morning, but
the overall forcing does not look strong enough for storms to move
across the whole area. At this time the afternoon hours look to be
mostly dry as models show little if any forcing. Of course the one
potential wrench in the works would be any MCV generated by the
storms in southwestern NEB. Will have to keep an eye on this. Think
south winds will become breezy today as the pressure gradient
increases. Highs today will be dependent on how deep the boundary
layer mixes. Think the NAM forecast soundings may be a little to
conservative in mixing the boundary layer and have continued with
highs in the mid to upper 80s.
For tonight, precip chances are anticipated to increase through the
night as the longer wavelength trough moves east into KS and NEB. It
appears as though storms would likely initiate along the foothills
of the Rockies and then move east again. With this in mind have the
higher POPs spreading west to east mainly during the overnight
hours. There is the potential for storms to be little more organized
as deep layer shear increases with the stronger upper level winds
associated with the trough overspread the area. 0-6KM shear
increases to around 40KTS. With MUCAPE possibly as high as 2000
J/kg, will be to watch out for some strong winds and hail. Lows
could be a little tricky if rain does move in. For now have trended
lows down a degree or so across north central KS where precip is
most likely . Otherwise have kept the forecast lows generally around
70.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
By Saturday morning, the negatively-tilted trough axis is progged
to be over central KS, expected to slowly lift northeast through
the afternoon and evening. Operational guidance is in good
agreement on an MCS shifting eastward into northeast KS early Saturday
morning with high confidence and precipitation chances inserted
for this period. Based on a weakening trend of instability as well
as warming h7 temps near 12Z, current thinking is that the complex
will track southeast and weaken during the mid morning hours.
Storms in the morning period may be capable of gusty winds and
small hail. What is more uncertain is how quickly, if at all, the
atmosphere can recover for severe convection in the afternoon.
There is some indication of clearing across north central areas in
the afternoon, allowing the boundary layer to quickly destabilize
with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/KG. A more favorable wind profile
appears by late afternoon with 0-6 KM shear profiles near 35 kts.
As storms fire ahead of dryline over central KS by late afternoon,
north central areas would see the best chance for severe storms.
Large hail and damaging winds would be the main hazards. Should
expect the thunderstorms to cluster and push eastward through the evening.
Activity clears the CWA Sunday morning, setting up for a very humid
and warm afternoon. Warm and moist air pooling northward will raise
high temperatures to the low 90s. Heat indices may reach the low
100s during the late afternoon. The departing upper trough to the
north will usher a cold front across Nebraska, and possibly northern
portions of the CWA, dependent on model of choice. Increasing wind
shear profiles with instability approaching 4500 J/KG would highly
suggest any storm able to develop near the Nebraska border likely to
be severe by late afternoon and early evening. Storm chances
increase overnight as a line of convection is shunted south and east
over northern and far eastern portions of KS.
On Monday afternoon, 00Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF vary somewhat on
placement of the cold front however do agree on the frontal boundary
bisecting the CWA by late afternoon. Decent convergence along the
boundary will result in organized convection, some severe, as high
surface instability peaks over 4000 J/KG and 0-6 KM shear is near 35
kts.
From Tuesday onward, northwest flow ensues as ridging slowly pushes
over the Inter-mountain West. The frontal boundary is expected to
stall over central or southern KS as weak embedded shortwave troughs
pass through the region. Off and on chances for storms are expected
with perhaps a more organized system bringing more widespread activity
late Wednesday into Thursday.
After highs in the low 90s and lows in the lower 70s through Monday,
the cool front will only lower readings slightly to the upper 80s
for highs and upper 60s for lows through Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
MVFR stratus has formed over south central KS and appears to be
spreading into northeast KS. Both the NAM and RAP keep the low
clouds over the terminals through the mid morning hours.
Confidence in when CIGS will scatter out and become VFR is
marginal and have been a little optimistic with improving CIGS
around 15Z as mixing of the boundary layer is expected to become
stronger. Still think chances of TS in the terminals is to low to
include just yet. If storms continue to develop south around KGBD,
KMHK may have some TS in several hours. Will continue to monitor
trends.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1042 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP INDICATE LESS COVERAGE FOR
SHOWERS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME THIS
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...WHERE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS TENNESSEE
AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THESE
AREAS BY 23Z. COULD SEE A SPORADIC SHOWER PRIOR TO THIS TIME...BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE EVENING AND
POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
NORTHWARD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE THE SKY COVER AND FOG
CLEARANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS AND WX THROUGH
11 AM AND TWEAKED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH POCKETS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOUND FURTHER EAST...BUT
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN ACTUAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE ARE
HINTS OF A WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE AREA. DESPITE
THIS...WINDS ARE GENERALLY CALM THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FAR FROM 70
DEGREES. WITH LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP IN A FEW PLACES... BUT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT IT
FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE...SO FAR. ON RADAR...A FEW VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE FOUND ALONG THE BORDER WITH TENNESSEE AND THESE
HAVE BEEN A FAIRLY STEADY STATE FEATURE THROUGH THIS MIDDLE PART OF
THE NIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A
RATHER WEAK RIDGE HOLDING ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A LARGE
AND DEEP TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE NATION.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A FEW WAVES OF ENERGY WILL RIDE NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH KENTUCKY WITH THE RIDGE OFFERING LITTLE RESISTANCE. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE LEANED TOWARD A GENERAL BLEND BUT ALSO SPECIFICS
FROM THE NAM12 AND HRRR DUE TO THEIR HIGHER RESOLUTION.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COUPLE IN A LONG STRING OF DAYS
RECENTLY THAT HAVE BEEN WARM WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL PEAK LATE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
REMAIN A THREAT EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND PWS WILL BE RATHER HIGH WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS SO THAT
HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR ANY OF THE MORE ORGANIZED CELLS.
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE STORMS
FROM BECOMING TOO STRONG. SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT...TONIGHT/S WEATHER
WILL BE MUGGY AND MILD WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE. DO
EXPECT A BIT BETTER COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON SATURDAY AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN THE BCCONSALL THEREAFTER. DID
MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RIDGE AND VALLEY SPOTS TONIGHT. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS TODAY...SIMILAR
TONIGHT...AND THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NUMBERS ON SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
WITH A WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH...AND A GOOD FLOW OF WARM MOIST
AND UNSTABLE GULF AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION TO START OUT THE
PERIOD ON SATURDAY EVENING...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE MODELS DO SHOW A REGRESSION
IN THE ACTIVITY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEY ARE ALL STILL
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. THE PROBLEM IS
HOWEVER...THAT NONE OF THE MODELS AGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE
ACROSS EASTERN KY...OR THE LOCATION FOR THIS CONVECTION.
BUT...WITH AN INCOMING TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT
PROVIDING ENHANCED LIFT...AND CONTINUED MOIST WARM AIR FLOWING INTO
THE REGION EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME DECLINE IN THE
ACTIVITY...BUT NOT A COMPLETE ENDING.
THINGS WILL KICK BACK UP SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO
MANITOBA AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE
SHORTWAVE...STILL LINGERING FROM TEXAS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH ANOTHER DAY
WITH WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIR PULLING IN FROM THE GULF...WILL CREATE
A LINE OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY AS WELL. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY
PULL OUT OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BREAK IN PRECIP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS THE SURFACE FRONT FINALLY MAKES IT INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES...IT WILL CHANGE ITS POSITION
TO SIT RIGHT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...RUNNING FROM WEST TO EAST. IT
WILL THEN LOSE STRENGTH AND SLOW DOWN...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO
A MORE SW DIRECTION BY TUESDAY EVENING...CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF. THEN...AS THE
FRONT PARKS ITSELF NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NRLY. THIS WILL FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES. THAT BEING SAID...FRONTOGENESIS WILL STILL BE
LIKELY...AND MODELS ARE STILL PINPOINTING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE INCONSISTENCY
BETWEEN MODELS AT THIS POINT IS QUITE APPARENT...SO WILL STICK CLOSE
TO ALLBLEND SOLUTION.
ONCE THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO
FINALLY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL ALSO TAKE QUITE
THE PLUMMET...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
ONCE THE POCKETS OF FOG BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...
CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR AT MOST SITES FOR THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY MAY BRING ABOUT TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS.
A VCTS REMARK WAS KEPT FOR THIS CONCERN IN ALL THE TAFS...TIMING THE
THREAT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WELL INTO
TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
745 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE THE SKY COVER AND FOG
CLEARANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS AND WX THROUGH
11 AM AND TWEAKED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH POCKETS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOUND FURTHER EAST...BUT
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN ACTUAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE ARE
HINTS OF A WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE AREA. DESPITE
THIS...WINDS ARE GENERALLY CALM THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FAR FROM 70
DEGREES. WITH LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP IN A FEW PLACES... BUT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT IT
FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE...SO FAR. ON RADAR...A FEW VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE FOUND ALONG THE BORDER WITH TENNESSEE AND THESE
HAVE BEEN A FAIRLY STEADY STATE FEATURE THROUGH THIS MIDDLE PART OF
THE NIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A
RATHER WEAK RIDGE HOLDING ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A LARGE
AND DEEP TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE NATION.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A FEW WAVES OF ENERGY WILL RIDE NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH KENTUCKY WITH THE RIDGE OFFERING LITTLE RESISTANCE. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE LEANED TOWARD A GENERAL BLEND BUT ALSO SPECIFICS
FROM THE NAM12 AND HRRR DUE TO THEIR HIGHER RESOLUTION.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COUPLE IN A LONG STRING OF DAYS
RECENTLY THAT HAVE BEEN WARM WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL PEAK LATE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
REMAIN A THREAT EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND PWS WILL BE RATHER HIGH WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS SO THAT
HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR ANY OF THE MORE ORGANIZED CELLS.
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE STORMS
FROM BECOMING TOO STRONG. SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT...TONIGHT/S WEATHER
WILL BE MUGGY AND MILD WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE. DO
EXPECT A BIT BETTER COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON SATURDAY AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN THE BCCONSALL THEREAFTER. DID
MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RIDGE AND VALLEY SPOTS TONIGHT. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS TODAY...SIMILAR
TONIGHT...AND THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NUMBERS ON SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
WITH A WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH...AND A GOOD FLOW OF WARM MOIST
AND UNSTABLE GULF AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION TO START OUT THE
PERIOD ON SATURDAY EVENING...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE MODELS DO SHOW A REGRESSION
IN THE ACTIVITY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEY ARE ALL STILL
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. THE PROBLEM IS
HOWEVER...THAT NONE OF THE MODELS AGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE
ACROSS EASTERN KY...OR THE LOCATION FOR THIS CONVECTION.
BUT...WITH AN INCOMING TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT
PROVIDING ENHANCED LIFT...AND CONTINUED MOIST WARM AIR FLOWING INTO
THE REGION EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME DECLINE IN THE
ACTIVITY...BUT NOT A COMPLETE ENDING.
THINGS WILL KICK BACK UP SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO
MANITOBA AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE
SHORTWAVE...STILL LINGERING FROM TEXAS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH ANOTHER DAY
WITH WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIR PULLING IN FROM THE GULF...WILL CREATE
A LINE OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY AS WELL. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY
PULL OUT OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BREAK IN PRECIP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS THE SURFACE FRONT FINALLY MAKES IT INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES...IT WILL CHANGE ITS POSITION
TO SIT RIGHT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...RUNNING FROM WEST TO EAST. IT
WILL THEN LOSE STRENGTH AND SLOW DOWN...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO
A MORE SW DIRECTION BY TUESDAY EVENING...CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF. THEN...AS THE
FRONT PARKS ITSELF NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NRLY. THIS WILL FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES. THAT BEING SAID...FRONTOGENESIS WILL STILL BE
LIKELY...AND MODELS ARE STILL PINPOINTING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE INCONSISTENCY
BETWEEN MODELS AT THIS POINT IS QUITE APPARENT...SO WILL STICK CLOSE
TO ALLBLEND SOLUTION.
ONCE THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO
FINALLY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL ALSO TAKE QUITE
THE PLUMMET...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
ONCE THE POCKETS OF FOG BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...
CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR AT MOST SITES FOR THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRIFTING UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY MAY BRING ABOUT TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS.
A VCTS REMARK WAS KEPT FOR THIS CONCERN IN ALL THE TAFS...TIMING THE
THREAT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND WELL INTO
TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1014 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CWA IS STARTING OFF THE DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...STRATUS IS FAST
APPROACHING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM THE EAST AND AT THE VERY LEAST
WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTHEAST MARYLAND
/INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE BALTIMORE AREA/ LATE THIS MORNING/MIDDAY.
IT/S UNCERTAIN HOW FAR WEST THIS DECK OF CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT.
WOULD THINK THAT THE STRONG SUN ANGLE WOULD HELP TO BREAK/SCATTER
IT INTO SOME CU/STRATOCU FURTHER WEST. WOULD EXPECT SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT ANYWAY FOR THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVELS WARM AND MODELS
SUGGEST WEAK INSTABILITY.
SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND LOCALLY RUN WRF-ARW ALSO
SUGGEST A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CWA. THIS MAY WIND UP MAINLY BEING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
INTO THE NORTHERN VIRGINIA PIEDMONT WHERE MORE SUNSHINE/HEATING
WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. AMOUNTS OF
CAPE ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK AS IS SHEAR SO STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE ABLE TO HAVE STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFTS FOR A SEVERE
RISK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE. UPSLOPE RAIN POSSIBLE ON ERN SLOPES
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MIN TEMPS A MAV/MET/SREF BLEND OF LOW TO MID 60S
INLAND...UPR 60S URBAN/NEAR SHORE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 1ST PART OF THE XTND CAN BEST BE CATERGORIZED AS "TYPICAL
SUMMER FCSTG." HIGH PRES WL BE MOVG OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST SAT.
FOR THE MID ATLC THIS ISN`T A BAD SET UP - IT SHOULD BE MORE
COMFORTABLE THAN IF THE HIGH WAS FRUTHER S AND TAKING ON MORE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HIGHS SAT AND SUN SHOULD BE IN THE M80S.
LOWS IN THE 60S. CNVCTN THIS WKND WL LKLY BE LIMITED TO DIURNALLY/
OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN.
PERHAPS BETTER CHCS AT TSTMS ERLY IN THE NEW WK AS THE HIGH
MIGRATES FURTHER E AND THE AIR MASS UNDERGOES MODIFICATION.
DAYTIME TEMPS/DWPTS SHOULD RISE MON-WED. TUE/WED HIGHS SHOULD BE
CLOSING IN ON 90. AGN AFTN/ERLY EVE WOULD BE THE BEST CHC OF TSTMS.
BEING IN THE NATION`S CAPITAL THERE ARE A FEW TIMES WHEN WE TAKE
A KEEN INTEREST IN THE FARTHEST REACHES OF THE XTND FCST:
INAUGURATIONS...THNKSGVG...XMAS/NEW YRS...AND THE 4TH OF JUL. W/
A FEW HUNDRED THOUSAND PEOPLE GETTING TOGETHER ON THE MALL WE GET
VERY INTERESTED IN TEMPERATURES FOR PTNL HEAT INJURIES AND SVR WX
PSBLTIES. FOR THE PAST 2 NGTS THE MDLS HV BEEN IMPLYING A CD FNT WOULD
BE MOVG INTO THE MID ATLC ON THE 3RD OR ERLY ON THE 4TH...AND THE
MDLS RMN CONSISTENT W/ THIS SCENARIO. HIGH PRES OVR THE AREA NEXT
FRI WHICH WOULD LKLY MAKE FOR SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS.
HOPEFULLY THINGS WL TURN OUT THIS WAY. ONE WK TO GO...
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATUS DECK HAS JUST MADE IT TO MTN...AND MAY SPREAD TO BWI FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR /1500-2000 FT/ CIGS THROUGH MIDDAY. FURTHER WEST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS DECK HOLDING TOGETHER FOR THE DCA/IAD
TERMINALS. GIVEN THE HIGH SUN ANGLE IT MAY BREAK UP/SCATTER OUT
AND 3-5FT CU MAY PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WITH E/SE FLOW DEVELOPING...WILL HAVE TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CIGS DEVELOPING/SPREAD FURTHER WEST LATE TONIGHT.
IN THE XTND PART OF THE FCST VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL MAJORITY OF
THE TIME. AFTN/EVE CNVCTN WL BE PSBL SUN-TUE ALTHO NO ORGANIZED
LNS OF CVNCTN FORESEEN.
&&
.MARINE...
NE FLOW BECOMES E AND INCREAES TO 10-15 KT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
COULD BE SOME CHANNELING IN AREAS LIKE THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
WHERE 18 KT GUSTS OCCUR LATE INTO THE EVENING BUT NO SCA FOR NOW
THOUGH GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS LATE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
THE ELY FLOW/OCEAN FRONT.
OVR THE WKND WINDS ARE XPCTD TO STAY BLO SCA VALUES.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/BAJ/ABW
NEAR TERM...BPP/BAJ
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...BPP/BAJ/ABW
MARINE...BPP/BAJ/ABW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
649 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
ALTHOUGH CLICHE...PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE MUCH OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THAT IT WILL BE UNSETTLED. THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AS MOST OF THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER SECTIONS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN MOIST.
ALTHOUGH FORECAST AREA DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH...THIS COULD HELP SET THE STAGE FOR
STRONGER STORMS LATE SUNDAY AS SBCAPE VALUES SOAR WITH AFTN
HEATING. THIS COULD THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MORE HEAVY RAIN LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THIS ENERGY IS RELEASED AIDED BY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SLOW
MOVING UPPER TROUGH NEAR NEBR/IA BORDER AT 07Z WITH NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPING NEAR MO RIVER. THERE WERE EVEN A FEW CELLS AT 07Z
TO THE WEST AIDED BY WEAK TRAILING ENERGY WHICH WAS AHEAD OF
LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEBR. A LARGER
UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS PROVIDING FORCING FOR THESE LARGE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO OUR WEST WAS CROSSING ROCKIES FM MT INTO
SOUTH THRU CO/UT BORDER. ACTIVITY COULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVER
THE FA THIS MORNING...EITHER DUE TO CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH
LEAD WEAKER TROUGH ENERGY...OR STORMS TO OUR WEST HOLDING TOGETHER
FED BY LOW LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH SOME DECREASE WAS HINTED AT THIS
AFTN BY 00Z GFS/ECMWF...WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS REMAINING IN
PLACE...ANY BREAKS/HEATING COULD CAUSE RENEWED DEVELOPMENT PER 00Z
NAM. NONETHELESS...WENT WITH A MIDDAY DECREASE IN POPS AND TRENDS
NEXT HOUR OR SO WILL BE MONITORED FOR SHORT TERM CHANGES. COUNTED
ON ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUDS/SHOWERS THIS AFTN SOUTHERN AREAS TO
ALLOW READINGS TO APPROACH THOSE OBSERVED YDA. IF 06Z RAP AND 00Z
ECMWF WOULD VERIFY THESE NUMBERS WOULD PROVE TOO COOL. LINGERING
CLOUDS/PRECIP N COULD KEEP THAT AREA A BIT COOLER AND GENERALLY
MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO PREV MAX TEMPS THERE. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HIGH AND CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATING GENERALLY SLOW
MOVEMENTS...ANY STORM COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN. SOME SEVERE RISK
ALSO PERSISTS...BUT BETTER SHEAR VALUES AND HIGHER CAPE REMAINED
MOSTLY TO THE WEST. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EWD TONIGHT...
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE IN...IF IT EVEN
LEAVES IN THE FIRST PLACE.
AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES THEN CROSSES AREA SATURDAY...HARD TO
DETERMINE IF THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A BREAK IN ACTIVITY AND THUS
HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED MUCH OF THE DAY. HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WILL PERSIST UNTIL MOST OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY
PASSES AS CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE SLOW MOVEMENT...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES.
SHEAR VALUES INCREASE AND IF AREA COULD RECOVER ENOUGH IN THE
AFTN...SEVERE THREAT COULD BE A BIT HIGHER...BUT IT SEEMS SOMEWHAT
CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME.
AS MENTIONED BRIEFLY ABOVE...THIS DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH COULD
CLEAR SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE FA ON SUNDAY.
BETTER HEATING DUE TO EARLY DAY SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL THEN ALLOW HIGHER CAPE VALUES TO DEVELOP. COUPLED WITH
A STRONG UPPER JET ON SOUTH SIDE OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALONG
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...AREA WILL BE PROVIDED WITH EVEN BETTER
SHEAR TO GO ALONG WITH THIS INCREASED CAPE. THIS IN TURN COULD
POINT TO AN ACTIVE LATE SUNDAY AFTN AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT
PERIOD OVER THE FA. FELT 00Z GFS WAS A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH WITH
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTN...WITH THE MORE NORTH PLACEMENT
FROM 00Z NAM/ECMWF PREFERRED. THUS HIGHEST POPS WERE PLACED ACROSS
NRN ZONES SUN AFTN WITH WITH LIKELY POPS MANY AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS RATHER ACTIVE AS SLOW MOVING AND POSSIBLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING MCS DRIFTS SLOWLY ESE. RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE MONDAY...SPECLY CNTRL/S WHERE FRONT MAY INITIALLY HANG UP
AWAITING FOR TRAILING ENERGY BEHIND UPPER TROUGH LIFTING BACK NE
INTO CANADA. MADE NO CHANGE TO MODEL/PREV FCST BLEND OF A DRY
FORECAST TUE/WED...BUT NWRLY FLOW ALOFT...LINGERING MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLE RETURN OF LOW LVL BOUNDARY COULD CHANGE THAT IN LATER
FORECASTS. DID LEAVE SMALL POPS IN NEXT THURSDAY AS BIT BETTER
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION RETURNS TO FA AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING
OVER PLAINS. MADE NO CHANGES TO PRIOR MODEL/PREV FCST TEMPERATURES
WITH MOST AREAS IN 80-85 DEG RANGE FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z AS CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ROLLING THROUGH AFTER 06Z WITH VARIABLE CONDITIONS
REDEVELOPING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
634 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THIS DYING MCS HAS OBLITERATED THE MVFR STRATUS THAT HAD ENVELOPED
S-CNTRL NEB. WHAT HAPPENS FROM HERE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
REMAINING DENSE MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETARD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH SUGGESTS THE STRATUS WILL NOT REDEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE WAS FAIRLY HIGH THAT MOS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
STRATUS...BUT NOW THAT IT`S GONE I AM NOT SURE WHAT TO DO. THIS
HAS THROWN A BIG WRENCH INTO THE FCST. THE 07Z HRRR DOES HAVE THE
MCS MOVING THRU BUT ALSO INDICATES IFR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP/FILL
BACK IN. THE GOES-R SIMULATED FOG PRODUCT FROM THE NSSL WRF HAS
THE LOW CLOUDS OBSCURED BY ANVIL CIRRUS...BUT BY MIDDAY IT THINS
ENOUGH TO REVEAL STRATUS.
THIS WILL MOSTLY IMPACT THE UPCOMING AVIATION FCST...BUT ALSO HAS
IMPLICATIONS FOR HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
...AFTER THIS MORNINGS RAIN EXITS MORE DRENCHING RAIN IS ON THE
WAY TONIGHT AS MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS CREEP HIGHER IN THE RECORD
BOOKS...
ALOFT: A FAIRLY DEEP SHORTWAVE TROF /-2 STANDARD DEVIATION
HEIGHTS AT 500 MB/ WAS PRESSING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
WAS LOCATED OVER WY/CO/NM EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROF WAS IN THE
EXIT REGION OF A 110 KT JET STREAK. THIS TROF WILL BE SLOW TO
SWEEP THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS. IT WILL BE OVERHEAD SAT MORNING.
SURFACE: THE FCST AREA WAS IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN HIGH PRES
OVER THE ERN USA AND A COOL FRONT ADVANCING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. UPPER FORCING HAS RESULTED IN A DEEP AND MATURE LEE-SIDE
TROF. THE COOL FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE TROF AND EJECT INTO THE
PLAINS TONIGHT TO BE LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL NEB/KS AT DAWN SAT.
EARLY THIS MORNING: WE ARE DEALING WITH ANOTHER NON-SEVERE MCS
AND RAINFALL EVENT.
TODAY: THE MCS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FCST AREA BY 6 AM. HOWEVER...
THE LLJ MAY STILL BE GENERATING NEW CELLS ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF
ITS E- W ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MULTIPLE REVISIONS OF POPS ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS WE ACCT FOR RADAR TRENDS. BELIEVE WE WILL
NEED TO INCREASE POPS SUBSTANTIALLY THRU 9 AM OVER N-CNTRL KS.
CELL REGENERATION THREATENS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMTS.
STRATUS BEGAN DEVELOPING LATE LAST EVENING AND HAS OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF S-CNTRL NEB AS PREDICTED. WHAT THE EFFECTS THE MCS HAS ON
THIS CLOUD COVER IS UNCERTAIN AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
THIS MCS WILL OVERTURN THE TROPOSPHERE...CREATING A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TSTMS LATER TODAY. FOLLOWED THE TREND OF THE PAST
2 DAYS AND KEPT THE DAY DRY PREDOMINANTLY AFTER 9 AM.
I LIKE THE LOOK OF THE GFS/EC SOUNDINGS VS THE NAM WHICH HAVE A
SUBSTANTIAL CAP AND EML MODELED AND THE EC HAS NO DAYTIME QPF
AFTER THIS MORNINGS MCS. PERSISTENT SW MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT
FRESH EML AIR OVER TOP THE MCS COLD POOL...SUPPORTING THE CAP
IDEA. THE 00Z DNR SOUNDING SHOWED YESTERDAYS BL MIXED TO 17K FT
AGL AND THAT IS HEADED HERE.
THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THIS MCS WILL MODIFY THE SURFACE PRES
PATTERN. YESTERDAY WASNT NEARLY AS BREEZY AS EXPECTED. TODAY
LOOKS BREEZY TOO BUT IF MIXING IS HAMPERED BY THE MCS-GENERATED
COLD POOL...THAN OUR WINDS COULD BE TOO HIGH AGAIN.
HIGH TEMPS ARE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE TODAY DUE TO THE STRATUS AND
THE TIMING OF IT LIFTING/MIXING OUT. USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M
TEMPS /CONSRAW/. DID NOT GO AS COOL AS I THINK IT COULD BE. THE
18Z/00Z NAM BOTH HAVE 75-80F...WHICH IS CONCEIVABLE GIVEN WHAT
HAPPENED YESTERDAY WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS.
TONIGHT: EXPECT ANOTHER MCS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
ROLL E INTO THE FCST AREA...FOR 3RD NIGHT IN A ROW. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER DUE TO HI-RES MODELING AND HIGHER SREF PROBABILITIES THAN
WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST 2 NIGHTS.
THE PROGRESSION OF THE COMBINED LEE TROF AND COOL FRONT INTO WRN
NEB/KS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TSTMS TO ERUPT MUCH CLOSER TO THE FCST
AREA...MEANING THAT THE TSTMS WILL ARRIVE SOONER /MID-LATE
EVENING/ THAN THE LAST 2 NIGHTS.
THE LINEAR FORCING MECHANISM AND DEEP SW FLOW WITH A SIGNIFICANT
COMPONENT PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS TSTMS
ERUPTING WITH A QUICK EVOLUTION INTO A SQUALL LINE WHICH SHOULD
THEN RACE E ACROSS THE FCST AREA. POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE
PRECONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE 3000-4000 J/KG WITH A THICK CAPE
PROFILE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FCST 25-30 KTS.
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND/SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...BUT GIVEN THAT INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR W OF THE FCST
AREA...EXPECT LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE TO ALREADY BE ESTABLISHED
BEFORE THE TSTMS MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA. EMBEDDED STRONGER CELLS
/POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL OR TWO?/ WILL THREATEN LARGE HAIL...BUT THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE WILL EXIST
OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AT 12Z SATURDAY. THIS
SHORT WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST...POSITIONING
ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS BY 00Z SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS
THEN EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A
HINT OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND LONGWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AT 12Z SATURDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA MONDAY ONWARD AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW
ALSO MOVES EAST. THE RESULTANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS OUR
AREA SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART TO START THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST
ACROSS CANADA STARTING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AN ASSOCIATED
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUR AREA THUS
ALLOWING FOR MORE NORTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE THEN SOME HINTS OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RETURN
FLOW STARTING THURSDAY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION...LEFT OVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN
CWA. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION TOWARDS MIDDAY
SATURDAY...BUT CONTINUED DPVA AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE NEARING THE AREA WILL LIKELY
PROMOTE FURTHER PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION IS
THEN EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH POPS ACROSS MOST ALL
OF THE CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THEN FORECAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS...TRAVELING WITHIN THE DEVELOPING
ZONAL MEAN FLOW OVER OUR AREA...ALONG WITH DECREASING CIN VALUES
COULD PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE
HINTS AT PERIODIC UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS MOVING OVERHEAD
MONDAY ONWARD AS WELL AND ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING PERIODIC
LOW POPS TO VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HARD TO ARGUE WITH OR AGAINST THESE POPS...SO THEY WERE LEFT
UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENHANCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...ALONG
WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WITH THE SHORT WAVE
IN THE AREA...WILL PROMOTE 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUE OF 1000-2500J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH VALUES OF 2000-4000J/KG
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 30KTS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO
OUTLOOK BOTH DAYS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO.
RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL ALSO LIKELY BE PRESENT
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE OF
CONVECTIVE TIMING AND PLACEMENT THAT FAR INTO THE FUTURE...WILL
HOLD OFF FROM ANY MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO FOR MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY COULD POTENTIALLY BE A RELATIVELY COOLER DAY AS MESO-
HIGH SETS UP SHOP OVER THE AREA DUE TO RAINFALL FROM THE NIGHT
BEFORE...AND CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION PERSIST. GIVEN
THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA ON MONDAY...THE
CHANGE IN LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN IMPRESSIVE AND AS A RESULT...SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE
EXPECTED FROM DAY TO DAY SUNDAY ONWARD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 80S TO NEAR 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z GRI TAF THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
TODAY: THE MVFR STRATUS THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT HAS DISSIPATED
FROM THE DYING TSTM COMPLEX MOVING THRU. THIS SIGNIFICANTLY
COMPLICATES THE FCST BECAUSE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT KNOW THAT
IT/S GONE. FOR NOW THE PLAYED IT VFR IN THE TAF...BUT THERE IS
POTENTIAL THAT STRATUS COULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP THIS MORNING. WINDS
WERE VARIABLE BEHIND THE RAIN BUT SHOULD ORGANIZE FROM THE S-SSE
AND GUST 25 TO POTENTIALLY 33 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: LOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT.
TONIGHT: VFR TO START...BUT A PERIOD OF IFR TSTMS APPEARS LIKELY
WITH POTENTIAL G50 KTS. SSE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND THEN BECOME
VARIABLE BEHIND THE EXPECTED TSTM SQUALL LINE.
CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
545 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THIS DYING MCS HAS OBLITERATED THE MVFR STRATUS THAT HAD ENVELOPED
S-CNTRL NEB. WHAT HAPPENS FROM HERE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
REMAINING DENSE MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETARD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH SUGGESTS THE STRATUS WILL NOT REDEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE WAS FAIRLY HIGH THAT MOS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
STRATUS...BUT NOW THAT IT`S GONE I AM NOT SURE WHAT TO DO. THIS
HAS THROWN A BIG WRENCH INTO THE FCST. THE 07Z HRRR DOES HAVE THE
MCS MOVING THRU BUT ALSO INDICATES IFR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP/FILL
BACK IN. THIS WILL MOSTLY IMPACT THE UPCOMING AVIATION FCST...BUT
ALSO HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONT TO
MONITOR...
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
...AFTER THIS MORNINGS RAIN EXITS MORE DRENCHING RAIN IS ON THE
WAY TONIGHT AS MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS CREEP HIGHER IN THE RECORD
BOOKS...
ALOFT: A FAIRLY DEEP SHORTWAVE TROF /-2 STANDARD DEVIATION
HEIGHTS AT 500 MB/ WAS PRESSING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
WAS LOCATED OVER WY/CO/NM EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROF WAS IN THE
EXIT REGION OF A 110 KT JET STREAK. THIS TROF WILL BE SLOW TO
SWEEP THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS. IT WILL BE OVERHEAD SAT MORNING.
SURFACE: THE FCST AREA WAS IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN HIGH PRES
OVER THE ERN USA AND A COOL FRONT ADVANCING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. UPPER FORCING HAS RESULTED IN A DEEP AND MATURE LEE-SIDE
TROF. THE COOL FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE TROF AND EJECT INTO THE
PLAINS TONIGHT TO BE LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL NEB/KS AT DAWN SAT.
EARLY THIS MORNING: WE ARE DEALING WITH ANOTHER NON-SEVERE MCS
AND RAINFALL EVENT.
TODAY: THE MCS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FCST AREA BY 6 AM. HOWEVER...
THE LLJ MAY STILL BE GENERATING NEW CELLS ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF
ITS E- W ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MULTIPLE REVISIONS OF POPS ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS WE ACCT FOR RADAR TRENDS. BELIEVE WE WILL
NEED TO INCREASE POPS SUBSTANTIALLY THRU 9 AM OVER N-CNTRL KS.
CELL REGENERATION THREATENS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMTS.
STRATUS BEGAN DEVELOPING LATE LAST EVENING AND HAS OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF S-CNTRL NEB AS PREDICTED. WHAT THE EFFECTS THE MCS HAS ON
THIS CLOUD COVER IS UNCERTAIN AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
THIS MCS WILL OVERTURN THE TROPOSPHERE...CREATING A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TSTMS LATER TODAY. FOLLOWED THE TREND OF THE PAST
2 DAYS AND KEPT THE DAY DRY PREDOMINANTLY AFTER 9 AM.
I LIKE THE LOOK OF THE GFS/EC SOUNDINGS VS THE NAM WHICH HAVE A
SUBSTANTIAL CAP AND EML MODELED AND THE EC HAS NO DAYTIME QPF
AFTER THIS MORNINGS MCS. PERSISTENT SW MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT
FRESH EML AIR OVER TOP THE MCS COLD POOL...SUPPORTING THE CAP
IDEA. THE 00Z DNR SOUNDING SHOWED YESTERDAYS BL MIXED TO 17K FT
AGL AND THAT IS HEADED HERE.
THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THIS MCS WILL MODIFY THE SURFACE PRES
PATTERN. YESTERDAY WASNT NEARLY AS BREEZY AS EXPECTED. TODAY
LOOKS BREEZY TOO BUT IF MIXING IS HAMPERED BY THE MCS-GENERATED
COLD POOL...THAN OUR WINDS COULD BE TOO HIGH AGAIN.
HIGH TEMPS ARE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE TODAY DUE TO THE STRATUS AND
THE TIMING OF IT LIFTING/MIXING OUT. USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M
TEMPS /CONSRAW/. DID NOT GO AS COOL AS I THINK IT COULD BE. THE
18Z/00Z NAM BOTH HAVE 75-80F...WHICH IS CONCEIVABLE GIVEN WHAT
HAPPENED YESTERDAY WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS.
TONIGHT: EXPECT ANOTHER MCS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
ROLL E INTO THE FCST AREA...FOR 3RD NIGHT IN A ROW. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER DUE TO HI-RES MODELING AND HIGHER SREF PROBABILITIES THAN
WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST 2 NIGHTS.
THE PROGRESSION OF THE COMBINED LEE TROF AND COOL FRONT INTO WRN
NEB/KS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TSTMS TO ERUPT MUCH CLOSER TO THE FCST
AREA...MEANING THAT THE TSTMS WILL ARRIVE SOONER /MID-LATE
EVENING/ THAN THE LAST 2 NIGHTS.
THE LINEAR FORCING MECHANISM AND DEEP SW FLOW WITH A SIGNIFICANT
COMPONENT PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS TSTMS
ERUPTING WITH A QUICK EVOLUTION INTO A SQUALL LINE WHICH SHOULD
THEN RACE E ACROSS THE FCST AREA. POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE
PRECONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE 3000-4000 J/KG WITH A THICK CAPE
PROFILE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FCST 25-30 KTS.
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND/SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...BUT GIVEN THAT INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR W OF THE FCST
AREA...EXPECT LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE TO ALREADY BE ESTABLISHED
BEFORE THE TSTMS MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA. EMBEDDED STRONGER CELLS
/POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL OR TWO?/ WILL THREATEN LARGE HAIL...BUT THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE WILL EXIST
OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AT 12Z SATURDAY. THIS
SHORT WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST...POSITIONING
ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS BY 00Z SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS
THEN EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A
HINT OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND LONGWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AT 12Z SATURDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA MONDAY ONWARD AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW
ALSO MOVES EAST. THE RESULTANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS OUR
AREA SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART TO START THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST
ACROSS CANADA STARTING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AN ASSOCIATED
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUR AREA THUS
ALLOWING FOR MORE NORTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE THEN SOME HINTS OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RETURN
FLOW STARTING THURSDAY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION...LEFT OVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN
CWA. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION TOWARDS MIDDAY
SATURDAY...BUT CONTINUED DPVA AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE NEARING THE AREA WILL LIKELY
PROMOTE FURTHER PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION IS
THEN EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH POPS ACROSS MOST ALL
OF THE CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THEN FORECAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS...TRAVELING WITHIN THE DEVELOPING
ZONAL MEAN FLOW OVER OUR AREA...ALONG WITH DECREASING CIN VALUES
COULD PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE
HINTS AT PERIODIC UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS MOVING OVERHEAD
MONDAY ONWARD AS WELL AND ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING PERIODIC
LOW POPS TO VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HARD TO ARGUE WITH OR AGAINST THESE POPS...SO THEY WERE LEFT
UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENHANCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...ALONG
WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WITH THE SHORT WAVE
IN THE AREA...WILL PROMOTE 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUE OF 1000-2500J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH VALUES OF 2000-4000J/KG
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 30KTS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO
OUTLOOK BOTH DAYS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO.
RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL ALSO LIKELY BE PRESENT
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE OF
CONVECTIVE TIMING AND PLACEMENT THAT FAR INTO THE FUTURE...WILL
HOLD OFF FROM ANY MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO FOR MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY COULD POTENTIALLY BE A RELATIVELY COOLER DAY AS MESO-
HIGH SETS UP SHOP OVER THE AREA DUE TO RAINFALL FROM THE NIGHT
BEFORE...AND CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION PERSIST. GIVEN
THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA ON MONDAY...THE
CHANGE IN LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN IMPRESSIVE AND AS A RESULT...SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE
EXPECTED FROM DAY TO DAY SUNDAY ONWARD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 80S TO NEAR 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z GRI TAF THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
REST OF TONIGHT: MVFR CIGS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING AND SHOULD
INVADE GRI SHORTLY. MODEL GUIDANCE FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES
SUGGEST CIGS WILL DECAY FURTHER TO IFR 09Z-12Z. WE ARE MONITORING
TSTM CLUSTERS UPSTREAM AND A PERIOD OF TSTMS COULD HIT GRI BEFORE
DAWN WITH IFR VSBYS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SO IT WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS TAF. WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS. SE-SSE WINDS WILL
REMAIN 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES. LLWS
WILL BE A PROBLEM.
CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO TSTM POTENTIAL AND HEIGHT/TIMING OF CHANGES
IN CEILING.
FRI: IFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY SCT TO
VFR STRATOCU. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM AFTER 20Z...BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF. SE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN AND GUST 28 TO POSSIBLY 33 KTS AT TIMES.
CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO HEIGHT/TIMING CHANGES IN CEILING.
FRI EVE: VFR WITH A FAIRLY DECENT PROBABILITY OF IFR TSTMS AFTER
03Z. SE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES.
CONFIDENCE: LOW DUE TO TSTM POTENTIAL AND TIMING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1037 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX... WINDS... TEMPS...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
15Z SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS THE SFC LOW OVER SERN CO/SWRN KS. IN
RESPONSE... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
OK/TXPH BORDER. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH OBS... BUT MOST SITES HAVE
STAYED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA... BUT A FEW HAVE FLIRTED WITH
SUSTAINED 30MPH OR GUSTS TO 40MPH AT BRIEF MOMENTS.
LIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
SFC BOUNDARY/REGION OF THETA E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
ACROSS THE WRN TXPH. PER RADAR TRENDS... IT CONTINUES TO HANG
ON AS IT MOVES N/NE... SO ADJUSTED POPS IN NW OK ACCORDINGLY.
FOR THIS AFTN/EVENING... THE SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES... WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS FAR NWRN OK THROUGH THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM KGAG/KWWR SHOW DECENT SBCAPE
PROFILES THROUGH THE EVENING... 1500-2500 J/KG... HOWEVER...
CONTINUAL S/SW WAA IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP A LID ON
DEVELOPMENT... WITH THE BEST CHANCES LATE IN THE EVENING AS THE
SFC LOW BUILDS IN... PROVIDING SOME LIFT. STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED
AND LIKELY SCATTERED... WITH SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED ACROSS
FAR NWRN OK.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/
AVIATION...
27/12Z TAFS...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH 15-17Z ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. WILL LEAVE OUT OF
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND KSPS FOR NOW BUT MVFR-VFR CEILINGS MAY
SPREAD INTO THOSE AREAS AND WILL BE HANDLED WITH AMD. WILL ALSO
MENTION VCSH AT KGAG/KWWR FOR FIRST FEW HOURS BUT MAIN CONCERN FOR
TSRA WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WILL BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN-THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA. WE WILL HOLD OFF
ON ADVISORY RIGHT NOW AND MENTION THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA AND
GRAPHICASTS/HWO. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EAST OF DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAIN SHOW EXPECTED OVER
KANSAS AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH RESPECTABLE CAP
WILL BE SEEN AGAIN TODAY...BETTER FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING
LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL YIELD GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP DOWN INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
LOW POPS WILL BE SPREAD DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKER.
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS FORMING
EAST OF DRYLINE NEAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO MCS EVOLUTION TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST FROM KANSAS. POPS WERE RAISED AND SPREAD A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. PRIMARILY A
WIND AND PERHAPS HAIL THREAT AND MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-40.
IN THE WAKE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGD TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND STALL. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR MAINLY LATE DAY AND NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA.
WITH W-NW FLOW ALOFT YIELDING SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN POST
FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME...SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 88 73 90 73 / 10 10 20 30
HOBART OK 93 72 94 70 / 10 10 20 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 74 96 74 / 10 10 10 20
GAGE OK 90 71 92 69 / 20 30 30 10
PONCA CITY OK 88 72 90 71 / 10 30 40 60
DURANT OK 87 75 92 75 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/11/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
549 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
BASED ON LATEST RADAR DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
STREAMING NORTHWARD...HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FURTHER
EAST. LATEST HRRR TRYING TO PICK UP ON THIS LATEST TREND AND KEEPS
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. JUST ANOTHER
WRINKLE IN WHATS BEEN A COMPLICATED CONVECTIVE FORECAST THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ON OVERALL EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THAT SAID THOUGH...THREAT
WILL REMAIN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WHEREVER STORMS
DECIDE TO FORM AND MOVE...AND AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS BELOW.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MCS FROM LAST EVENING WHICH AFFECTED NORTH CENTRAL SD WITH SOME
MODERATE RAINFALL HAS PUSHED NORTH INTO ND WHILE ALSO WEAKENING.
WATCHING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO NEB.
MADE SOME LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS TO WX/POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
MODELS STILL HAVING A RATHER TOUGH TIME AGREEING ON WHEN AND WHERE
PRECIP WILL FORM TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN WHATS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ON RADAR...WILL LIKELY SEE THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT PUSH
NORTH INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING. NEW DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
SD AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS TO AFFECT THE REGION. THIS
IS WHEN SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT
ANYTHING BECOMING SEVERE THIS MORNING...BUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ARE DEFINITELY THE TIME TABLE TO WATCH. WILL CONTINUE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DEBATING ON AN
EASTWARD EXTENSION...BUT THERE AT LEAST SEEMS TO BE SOME AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS...AND WITH THE SREF PROBS THAT THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN LOOKS TO BE OVER CENTRAL SD WITH THE LATER DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL A RATHER COMPLICATED FORECAST IN THE
SHORT TERM AND UNFORTUNATELY THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. WILL STILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON ANY POSSIBLE EASTWARD EXTENSION TO THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THIS MORNINGS 00Z MODELS ARE RELATIVELY SIMILAR WITH THE LONG TERM
PATTERN EVOLUTION...THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT NORMAL TO A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL TRANSITION
EAST DURING THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS REBOUNDING FAIRLY QUICKLY BY
MIDWEEK. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS DIABATICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNDER COLD TEMPS ALOFT. OTHERWISE
IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL
BUT THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE BY WEEKS END.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
SCT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL BE ADDING
THUNDER TO KABR/KATY TERMINALS IF STORMS CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER
THIS MORNING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
FOR A SHORT TIME. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE REGION DUE
TO THE STORMS/RAINFALL.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-CORSON-DAY-DEUEL-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-
FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-MARSHALL-
MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1048 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AS SEEN IN REGIONAL 12Z
SOUNDINGS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY TO SEE THE BEST COVERAGE BASED ON THE
REDUCING CLOUD COVER SEEN IN SATELLITE AND ON THE LATEST HRRR AND
RAP RUNS. THE TREND OF DECREASING CLOUDS AREA WIDE SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WEAK
WINDS ALOFT AND TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILE SUGGEST SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
651 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings will persist across the terminals through mid to
late morning before scattering out to VFR. Isolated thunderstorms
may develop west of the terminals late this afternoon. At this
time, any storms that develop are expected to remain west of the
terminals through the evening hours. Another round of MVFR
stratus will spread north across the terminals late tonight into
Saturday morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Warm and breezy conditions can be expected across West Central Texas
again today. The thermal ridge will strongest west of the area
today, so temperatures this afternoon will be similar to yesterday
with highs topping out in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Morning low
clouds across central and southern sections will scatter out by mid
to late morning, with partly cloudy skies prevailing through
afternoon.
The dryline will set up across far eastern New Mexico into Southwest
Texas today and will mix east into far West Texas this afternoon. A
shortwave trough currently over the Four Corners region will track
east across the Central and Southern High Plains this evening. Lift
from the approaching short wave and temperatures along and ahead of
the dryline climbing into the upper 90s, should be sufficient to
weaken the CAP and allow thunderstorms to develop. Any storms that
develop will have the potential to become severe as the airmass
becomes very unstable this afternoon. Some of this activity may
reach far western counties towards evening. The RUC is the most
aggressive and brings activity into western sections this evening,
while the NAM dissipates convection just west of the area. The Texas
Tech WRF is dry. Feel reasonably confident to maintain isolated
thunder across far western portions of the Concho Valley and
Crockett county late this afternoon and to include slight POPs west
of a Haskell to Iraan line for this evening. A strong southerly low
level jet will develop this evening and may allow storms to hold
together through the late evening hours before weakening. Otherwise,
expect breezy conditions overnight with another round of low clouds
spreading north across much of the area after midnight. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the lower 70s.
JW
LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Heights aloft will begin to build over our area on Saturday, as the
upper trough departs from the Southern Plains. Sunday through at
least the middle of next week, a broad mid-upper level ridge will
envelop most of the southern CONUS. This will be our dominant
weather influence, effectively shutting off rain chances. Will have
breezy conditions with south winds Saturday through Monday with lee
side surface trough in place. Wind speeds will be lower Tuesday-
Thursday with weaker surface pressure gradient. Low-level moisture
will be on a gradually decreasing trend. By Monday, late night/early
morning low cloud development should be restricted to our
southeastern counties. Also expect to have less of a diurnal cumulus
field. The 850 mb thermal ridge will expand a bit farther east into
our area this weekend, and then change little next week. Expect
temperatures for our area to be a few degrees warmer this weekend,
and then be in a steady-state pattern next week. These readings will
be just slightly above normal for the end of June and beginning of
July.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 91 72 93 74 94 / 5 10 10 10 10
San Angelo 91 72 95 73 96 / 10 10 10 10 10
Junction 89 73 92 72 93 / 5 5 10 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
317 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING. THE STEADIEST RAIN IS ALREADY MOVING EAST
INTO THE CASCADES ALONG WITH A FAST MOVING PACIFIC FRONT ALOFT. THE
SURFACE FRONT LAGS BEHIND...KEEPING PERIODS OF RAIN AROUND THE
DISTRICT THIS MORNING. A SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH...AS
ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO WASHINGTON. HOWEVER THE
LONGER TERM TREND WILL BE FOR DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER TO PUSH
NORTHWARD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A TALE OF TWO FRONTS THIS
MORNING...ONE ALOFT AND ONE NEAR THE SURFACE. THE FRONT ALOFT MOVED
QUICKLY THROUGH WESTERN WA/OR OVERNIGHT...SPREADING A PERIOD OF
STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS BAND OF
STEADIER PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY MOVING INTO THE CASCADES...AS THE
FRONT ALOFT IS BEING HURRIED ALONG BY A STRONG 120 KT+ WESTERLY JET
STREAM NOSING INTO THE OREGON COASTAL WATERS. BY SUNRISE...THIS FRONT
ALOFT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST.
INFRARED SATELLITE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SURFACE FRONT
IS LAGGING BEHIND...AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY DETACHED FROM ITS UPPER
SUPPORT. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FRONTAL
LIFT TO CONTINUE PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
DAYBREAK.
A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE...TOUGH TO DISCERN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BUT
SEEMINGLY BETWEEN 135-140W...SEEMS TO BE MODELED WELL AND WILL MOVE
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. JET DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LIFT
AS WE REMAIN IN THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG
PACIFIC JET STREAM. AS THE SECONDARY DISTURBANCE MOVES ONSHORE...IT
WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THE LAST FEW DAYS...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE AIR MASS 500 MB AND
ABOVE IS TOO WARM TO SUPPORT THUNDER...BUT GIVEN STRONG JET STREAM
LIFT CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO MAINLY IN SW
WASHINGTON. CHANCES OF THIS IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION ARE LESS THAN 10
PERCENT...SO LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.
AFTER THIS AFTERNOON...THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR THE PACIFIC JET
STREAM TO SLOWLY AIM FURTHER NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THIS WEEKEND...BUT NOT
BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM CLIPS THE PAC NW SATURDAY FOR MORE SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. BY SUNDAY IT APPEARS THE JET WILL
HAVE PUSHED FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO RELEGATE MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
SW WASHINGTON CASCADES. A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IS LIKELY ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY.
DUE TO DECENT WESTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED OROGRAPHIC LIFT...
RAINFALL TOTALS THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL BE IMPRESSIVE FOR JUNE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY NORTH. COAST RANGE AND CASCADE LOCATIONS
COULD SEE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SALEM. OROGRAPHICS
WILL ALSO LEAD TO RAINSHADOWING AND LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE WILLAMETTE
AND HOOD RIVER VALLEYS. THAT SAID...A COUPLE SPOTS COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS FROM SHOWERS WHICH COULD BRING HIGHLY LOCALIZED
TOTALS CLOSER TO ONE INCH. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BUILDING RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 80S BY TUESDAY. THE RIDGE IS PROGRESSIVE HOWEVER AND
THIS ALLOWS ON ONSHORE PUSH BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR NORMAL. BOTH MODELS DIG AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE COAST LATE
IN THE WEEK. SCHNEIDER
&&
.AVIATION...COLD FRONT APPROACHING COASTAL WATERS AT 10Z MOVING
ASHORE AROUND 12Z...AND 14Z TO 16Z TO INLAND TAF SITES BASED ON
CURRENT MOVEMENT. HEAVIEST RAIN HAS MOVED INTO THE CASCADES AS THE
UPPER PORTION OF THE FRONT SHEARED AWAY FROM THE SURFACE FRONT.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE COAST LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR LOW END VFR AFT 21Z FRI.
INLAND AREAS GENERALLY VFR BUT EXPECT MORE MVFR CIGS IN THE
2000-3000 FT RANGE FROM 12Z TO 19Z AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES. SHOULD SEE MORE VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...GENERALLY VFR IN THE AREA AT 10Z BUT SHOULD
SEE MORE MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT PREDOMINANT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN THE
12Z-17Z TIME FRAME...BUT WILL PROBABLY SEE SPORADIC MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ASHORE AROUND 5 TO 6 AM. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS ENHANCED BY A COASTAL JET WILL EASE AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WIND WAVES ARE IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE WHICH WILL
TRANSITION TOWARDS A 7 TO 9 FT FRESH SWELL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. CURRENT PREDOMINANT PERIOD AROUND 6 SECONDS WILL BRING
VERY CHOPPY SEAS THIS MORNING SO HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.
HIGHER PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
ALLOW SEAS TO COME DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT WINDS TO FOLLOW A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS. JBONK/MH
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL
11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
236 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
over much of the region today, with some thunderstorms producing
torrential rainfall. Continued unsettled weather will continue
into Saturday. A drying trend will begin on Sunday, with more
summer-like temperatures expected through much of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS THE PRIMARY CONCERN...
Today into tonight: Another active weather day is expected across
the Inland Northwest as a moist frontal system pushes across the
region during the morning and early afternoon hours. This will be
followed by a disturbance at upper levels during the afternoon
into the evening hours. A cold front is pushing across western WA
at 2:00 AM this morning. This front will push into the basin
through the early morning hours and then into the ID Panhandle by
the late morning and early afternoon hours. This will result in
another surge of moisture across the region and keep dew points
up. Clouds should begin to break up behind the front and allow
some sun breaks to occur. The atmosphere will destabilize with a
upper level disturbance pushing into the region by the afternoon.
Pwats will also continue to be high and up between 0.90-1.00
inches. Thunderstorms that do develop in the afternoon are
expected to produce torrential rainfall. These thunderstorms will
likely develop over the Cascades and into the western basin early
in the afternoon and continue across eastern WA into the ID
Panhandle through the late afternoon and evening hours. There will
be the potential for some small stream and urban flooding under
these heavy rain shafts. Ponding of water and reduced visibility
will also be a concern with the thunderstorms.
Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms will be less numerous with the
best instability across the northern mtns of eastern WA and in
the ID Panhandle. These thunderstorms will also be capable of
producing heavy rain, but Pwats will be a bit less closer to 0.70
inches by this time. This should result in a lesser risk for
flooding impacts, but it will be the third day in a row of
significant rainfall for these areas. There will be a possibility
for some showers out into the basin as well, but dew points will
be on the way down as drier air finally begins to filter into the
region. Rain showers and cloud cover will result in below normal
high temperatures both today and Saturday. /SVH
Saturday Night through Sunday Night: The Inland Northwest will be
dealing with the exit of one weather disturbance on Saturday
night, followed by a final, weaker disturbance Sunday
afternoon. Lingering rainfall, with possible thunderstorms, will
be possible over far eastern Washington in the Idaho Panhandle, at
least through late evening. The next disturbance comes through
Sunday afternoon, but the ridge will start to muscle its way into
the region. This will keep most precipitation confined to the
higher terrain of northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle.
These look like they will die off with the loss of daytime
heating, and the cloud cover should also be diminishing as well.
One final thing that may be a concern will be any fog formation
for the favored northern valleys of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle. Diminishing cloud cover combined with light winds and plenty
of low level moisture could contribute to fog for a few hours
Sunday night. ty
Monday through Friday...Models are generally in good agreement
Monday through Wednesday/night...then start to fall apart. High
pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest as a deep low
pressure system moves towards the B.C. Coast. By Wednesday
afternoon the ridge axis will get pushed east of the Continental
Divide. This is where the operational models start to see some
differences. The Ensemble means/NAEFS seem to offer a consensus of
keeping the low closed through Friday...before opening the low
into a wave as it moves through the Pacific Northwest on Saturday.
For now this solution is what we will lean toward for the end of
the extended period but confidence for Friday/Saturday is less
than average.
Monday through Wednesday with the ridge over the region we expect
a warming and drying trend. Temperatures will be within a degree
or two either side of normal on Monday before warming above normal
Tuesday and Wednesday. One thing to keep an eye on is just how low
the minimum relative humidity gets during the day what the
overnight recoveries will be on mid-slopes. Looks like a small
dose of summer.
By Thursday and Friday the flow will shift to southwesterly as the
low moves towards the coast. This will open the door for increased
moisture moving in off the Pacific. Some weak vorticity lobes will
most likely spin off the main low. Combine these weak forcing
mechanisms with daytime heating and orographics and some low end
pops have been added to the Panhandle mountains for the
afternoons. Temperatures will cool off by several degrees but
remain on the warm side of normal. /Tobin
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Kept the aviation forecasts rather heavy handed and
brief in the mention of showers at times in order to better
attempt some timing between weather systems producing the
precipitation. Tonight we have an exiting system working its
way through a good number of the aviation forecast points while
a second system is making an approach and is showing up quite
well making landfall on the coast. That second system will
influence the morning and afternoon hours for Friday. Some
thunder mentioned in the afternoon as well. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 67 54 71 50 72 51 / 50 60 40 30 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 64 52 69 48 71 48 / 60 60 50 40 10 10
Pullman 66 51 69 46 70 45 / 60 60 30 10 10 10
Lewiston 72 57 76 54 77 53 / 60 60 30 10 10 10
Colville 68 52 70 48 72 49 / 70 70 60 40 10 10
Sandpoint 63 51 65 46 68 45 / 70 70 60 50 20 10
Kellogg 61 49 62 46 65 47 / 60 60 60 40 20 10
Moses Lake 78 57 80 54 80 53 / 60 30 20 10 0 10
Wenatchee 76 59 78 56 79 56 / 60 30 20 10 0 10
Omak 76 55 77 51 78 52 / 50 40 30 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
236 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
over much of the region today, with some thunderstorms producing
torrential rainfall. Continued unsettled weather will continue
into Saturday. A drying trend will begin on Sunday, with more
summer-like temperatures expected through much of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS THE PRIMARY CONCERN...
Today into tonight: Another active weather day is expected across
the Inland Northwest as a moist frontal system pushes across the
region during the morning and early afternoon hours. This will be
followed by a disturbance at upper levels during the afternoon
into the evening hours. A cold front is pushing across western WA
at 2:00 AM this morning. This front will push into the basin
through the early morning hours and then into the ID Panhandle by
the late morning and early afternoon hours. This will result in
another surge of moisture across the region and keep dew points
up. Clouds should begin to break up behind the front and allow
some sun breaks to occur. The atmosphere will destabilize with a
upper level disturbance pushing into the region by the afternoon.
Pwats will also continue to be high and up between 0.90-1.00
inches. Thunderstorms that do develop in the afternoon are
expected to produce torrential rainfall. These thunderstorms will
likely develop over the Cascades and into the western basin early
in the afternoon and continue across eastern WA into the ID
Panhandle through the late afternoon and evening hours. There will
be the potential for some small stream and urban flooding under
these heavy rain shafts. Ponding of water and reduced visibility
will also be a concern with the thunderstorms.
Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms will be less numerous with the
best instability across the northern mtns of eastern WA and in
the ID Panhandle. These thunderstorms will also be capable of
producing heavy rain, but Pwats will be a bit less closer to 0.70
inches by this time. This should result in a lesser risk for
flooding impacts, but it will be the third day in a row of
significant rainfall for these areas. There will be a possibility
for some showers out into the basin as well, but dew points will
be on the way down as drier air finally begins to filter into the
region. Rain showers and cloud cover will result in below normal
high temperatures both today and Saturday. /SVH
Saturday Night through Sunday Night: The Inland Northwest will be
dealing with the exit of one weather disturbance on Saturday
night, followed by a final, weaker disturbance Sunday
afternoon. Lingering rainfall, with possible thunderstorms, will
be possible over far eastern Washington in the Idaho Panhandle, at
least through late evening. The next disturbance comes through
Sunday afternoon, but the ridge will start to muscle its way into
the region. This will keep most precipitation confined to the
higher terrain of northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle.
These look like they will die off with the loss of daytime
heating, and the cloud cover should also be diminishing as well.
One final thing that may be a concern will be any fog formation
for the favored northern valleys of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle. Diminishing cloud cover combined with light winds and plenty
of low level moisture could contribute to fog for a few hours
Sunday night. ty
Monday through Friday...Models are generally in good agreement
Monday through Wednesday/night...then start to fall apart. High
pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest as a deep low
pressure system moves towards the B.C. Coast. By Wednesday
afternoon the ridge axis will get pushed east of the Continental
Divide. This is where the operational models start to see some
differences. The Ensemble means/NAEFS seem to offer a consensus of
keeping the low closed through Friday...before opening the low
into a wave as it moves through the Pacific Northwest on Saturday.
For now this solution is what we will lean toward for the end of
the extended period but confidence for Friday/Saturday is less
than average.
Monday through Wednesday with the ridge over the region we expect
a warming and drying trend. Temperatures will be within a degree
or two either side of normal on Monday before warming above normal
Tuesday and Wednesday. One thing to keep an eye on is just how low
the minimum relative humidity gets during the day what the
overnight recoveries will be on mid-slopes. Looks like a small
dose of summer.
By Thursday and Friday the flow will shift to southwesterly as the
low moves towards the coast. This will open the door for increased
moisture moving in off the Pacific. Some weak vorticity lobes will
most likely spin off the main low. Combine these weak forcing
mechanisms with daytime heating and orographics and some low end
pops have been added to the Panhandle mountains for the
afternoons. Temperatures will cool off by several degrees but
remain on the warm side of normal. /Tobin
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Kept the aviation forecasts rather heavy handed and
brief in the mention of showers at times in order to better
attempt some timing between weather systems producing the
precipitation. Tonight we have an exiting system working its
way through a good number of the aviation forecast points while
a second system is making an approach and is showing up quite
well making landfall on the coast. That second system will
influence the morning and afternoon hours for Friday. Some
thunder mentioned in the afternoon as well. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 67 54 71 50 72 51 / 50 60 40 30 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 64 52 69 48 71 48 / 60 60 50 40 10 10
Pullman 66 51 69 46 70 45 / 60 60 30 10 10 10
Lewiston 72 57 76 54 77 53 / 60 60 30 10 10 10
Colville 68 52 70 48 72 49 / 70 70 60 40 10 10
Sandpoint 63 51 65 46 68 45 / 70 70 60 50 20 10
Kellogg 61 49 62 46 65 47 / 60 60 60 40 20 10
Moses Lake 78 57 80 54 80 53 / 60 30 20 10 0 10
Wenatchee 76 59 78 56 79 56 / 60 30 20 10 0 10
Omak 76 55 77 51 78 52 / 50 40 30 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
236 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
over much of the region today, with some thunderstorms producing
torrential rainfall. Continued unsettled weather will continue
into Saturday. A drying trend will begin on Sunday, with more
summer-like temperatures expected through much of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS THE PRIMARY CONCERN...
Today into tonight: Another active weather day is expected across
the Inland Northwest as a moist frontal system pushes across the
region during the morning and early afternoon hours. This will be
followed by a disturbance at upper levels during the afternoon
into the evening hours. A cold front is pushing across western WA
at 2:00 AM this morning. This front will push into the basin
through the early morning hours and then into the ID Panhandle by
the late morning and early afternoon hours. This will result in
another surge of moisture across the region and keep dew points
up. Clouds should begin to break up behind the front and allow
some sun breaks to occur. The atmosphere will destabilize with a
upper level disturbance pushing into the region by the afternoon.
Pwats will also continue to be high and up between 0.90-1.00
inches. Thunderstorms that do develop in the afternoon are
expected to produce torrential rainfall. These thunderstorms will
likely develop over the Cascades and into the western basin early
in the afternoon and continue across eastern WA into the ID
Panhandle through the late afternoon and evening hours. There will
be the potential for some small stream and urban flooding under
these heavy rain shafts. Ponding of water and reduced visibility
will also be a concern with the thunderstorms.
Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms will be less numerous with the
best instability across the northern mtns of eastern WA and in
the ID Panhandle. These thunderstorms will also be capable of
producing heavy rain, but Pwats will be a bit less closer to 0.70
inches by this time. This should result in a lesser risk for
flooding impacts, but it will be the third day in a row of
significant rainfall for these areas. There will be a possibility
for some showers out into the basin as well, but dew points will
be on the way down as drier air finally begins to filter into the
region. Rain showers and cloud cover will result in below normal
high temperatures both today and Saturday. /SVH
Saturday Night through Sunday Night: The Inland Northwest will be
dealing with the exit of one weather disturbance on Saturday
night, followed by a final, weaker disturbance Sunday
afternoon. Lingering rainfall, with possible thunderstorms, will
be possible over far eastern Washington in the Idaho Panhandle, at
least through late evening. The next disturbance comes through
Sunday afternoon, but the ridge will start to muscle its way into
the region. This will keep most precipitation confined to the
higher terrain of northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle.
These look like they will die off with the loss of daytime
heating, and the cloud cover should also be diminishing as well.
One final thing that may be a concern will be any fog formation
for the favored northern valleys of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle. Diminishing cloud cover combined with light winds and plenty
of low level moisture could contribute to fog for a few hours
Sunday night. ty
Monday through Friday...Models are generally in good agreement
Monday through Wednesday/night...then start to fall apart. High
pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest as a deep low
pressure system moves towards the B.C. Coast. By Wednesday
afternoon the ridge axis will get pushed east of the Continental
Divide. This is where the operational models start to see some
differences. The Ensemble means/NAEFS seem to offer a consensus of
keeping the low closed through Friday...before opening the low
into a wave as it moves through the Pacific Northwest on Saturday.
For now this solution is what we will lean toward for the end of
the extended period but confidence for Friday/Saturday is less
than average.
Monday through Wednesday with the ridge over the region we expect
a warming and drying trend. Temperatures will be within a degree
or two either side of normal on Monday before warming above normal
Tuesday and Wednesday. One thing to keep an eye on is just how low
the minimum relative humidity gets during the day what the
overnight recoveries will be on mid-slopes. Looks like a small
dose of summer.
By Thursday and Friday the flow will shift to southwesterly as the
low moves towards the coast. This will open the door for increased
moisture moving in off the Pacific. Some weak vorticity lobes will
most likely spin off the main low. Combine these weak forcing
mechanisms with daytime heating and orographics and some low end
pops have been added to the Panhandle mountains for the
afternoons. Temperatures will cool off by several degrees but
remain on the warm side of normal. /Tobin
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Kept the aviation forecasts rather heavy handed and
brief in the mention of showers at times in order to better
attempt some timing between weather systems producing the
precipitation. Tonight we have an exiting system working its
way through a good number of the aviation forecast points while
a second system is making an approach and is showing up quite
well making landfall on the coast. That second system will
influence the morning and afternoon hours for Friday. Some
thunder mentioned in the afternoon as well. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 67 54 71 50 72 51 / 50 60 40 30 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 64 52 69 48 71 48 / 60 60 50 40 10 10
Pullman 66 51 69 46 70 45 / 60 60 30 10 10 10
Lewiston 72 57 76 54 77 53 / 60 60 30 10 10 10
Colville 68 52 70 48 72 49 / 70 70 60 40 10 10
Sandpoint 63 51 65 46 68 45 / 70 70 60 50 20 10
Kellogg 61 49 62 46 65 47 / 60 60 60 40 20 10
Moses Lake 78 57 80 54 80 53 / 60 30 20 10 0 10
Wenatchee 76 59 78 56 79 56 / 60 30 20 10 0 10
Omak 76 55 77 51 78 52 / 50 40 30 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
236 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
over much of the region today, with some thunderstorms producing
torrential rainfall. Continued unsettled weather will continue
into Saturday. A drying trend will begin on Sunday, with more
summer-like temperatures expected through much of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS THE PRIMARY CONCERN...
Today into tonight: Another active weather day is expected across
the Inland Northwest as a moist frontal system pushes across the
region during the morning and early afternoon hours. This will be
followed by a disturbance at upper levels during the afternoon
into the evening hours. A cold front is pushing across western WA
at 2:00 AM this morning. This front will push into the basin
through the early morning hours and then into the ID Panhandle by
the late morning and early afternoon hours. This will result in
another surge of moisture across the region and keep dew points
up. Clouds should begin to break up behind the front and allow
some sun breaks to occur. The atmosphere will destabilize with a
upper level disturbance pushing into the region by the afternoon.
Pwats will also continue to be high and up between 0.90-1.00
inches. Thunderstorms that do develop in the afternoon are
expected to produce torrential rainfall. These thunderstorms will
likely develop over the Cascades and into the western basin early
in the afternoon and continue across eastern WA into the ID
Panhandle through the late afternoon and evening hours. There will
be the potential for some small stream and urban flooding under
these heavy rain shafts. Ponding of water and reduced visibility
will also be a concern with the thunderstorms.
Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms will be less numerous with the
best instability across the northern mtns of eastern WA and in
the ID Panhandle. These thunderstorms will also be capable of
producing heavy rain, but Pwats will be a bit less closer to 0.70
inches by this time. This should result in a lesser risk for
flooding impacts, but it will be the third day in a row of
significant rainfall for these areas. There will be a possibility
for some showers out into the basin as well, but dew points will
be on the way down as drier air finally begins to filter into the
region. Rain showers and cloud cover will result in below normal
high temperatures both today and Saturday. /SVH
Saturday Night through Sunday Night: The Inland Northwest will be
dealing with the exit of one weather disturbance on Saturday
night, followed by a final, weaker disturbance Sunday
afternoon. Lingering rainfall, with possible thunderstorms, will
be possible over far eastern Washington in the Idaho Panhandle, at
least through late evening. The next disturbance comes through
Sunday afternoon, but the ridge will start to muscle its way into
the region. This will keep most precipitation confined to the
higher terrain of northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle.
These look like they will die off with the loss of daytime
heating, and the cloud cover should also be diminishing as well.
One final thing that may be a concern will be any fog formation
for the favored northern valleys of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle. Diminishing cloud cover combined with light winds and plenty
of low level moisture could contribute to fog for a few hours
Sunday night. ty
Monday through Friday...Models are generally in good agreement
Monday through Wednesday/night...then start to fall apart. High
pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest as a deep low
pressure system moves towards the B.C. Coast. By Wednesday
afternoon the ridge axis will get pushed east of the Continental
Divide. This is where the operational models start to see some
differences. The Ensemble means/NAEFS seem to offer a consensus of
keeping the low closed through Friday...before opening the low
into a wave as it moves through the Pacific Northwest on Saturday.
For now this solution is what we will lean toward for the end of
the extended period but confidence for Friday/Saturday is less
than average.
Monday through Wednesday with the ridge over the region we expect
a warming and drying trend. Temperatures will be within a degree
or two either side of normal on Monday before warming above normal
Tuesday and Wednesday. One thing to keep an eye on is just how low
the minimum relative humidity gets during the day what the
overnight recoveries will be on mid-slopes. Looks like a small
dose of summer.
By Thursday and Friday the flow will shift to southwesterly as the
low moves towards the coast. This will open the door for increased
moisture moving in off the Pacific. Some weak vorticity lobes will
most likely spin off the main low. Combine these weak forcing
mechanisms with daytime heating and orographics and some low end
pops have been added to the Panhandle mountains for the
afternoons. Temperatures will cool off by several degrees but
remain on the warm side of normal. /Tobin
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Kept the aviation forecasts rather heavy handed and
brief in the mention of showers at times in order to better
attempt some timing between weather systems producing the
precipitation. Tonight we have an exiting system working its
way through a good number of the aviation forecast points while
a second system is making an approach and is showing up quite
well making landfall on the coast. That second system will
influence the morning and afternoon hours for Friday. Some
thunder mentioned in the afternoon as well. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 67 54 71 50 72 51 / 50 60 40 30 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 64 52 69 48 71 48 / 60 60 50 40 10 10
Pullman 66 51 69 46 70 45 / 60 60 30 10 10 10
Lewiston 72 57 76 54 77 53 / 60 60 30 10 10 10
Colville 68 52 70 48 72 49 / 70 70 60 40 10 10
Sandpoint 63 51 65 46 68 45 / 70 70 60 50 20 10
Kellogg 61 49 62 46 65 47 / 60 60 60 40 20 10
Moses Lake 78 57 80 54 80 53 / 60 30 20 10 0 10
Wenatchee 76 59 78 56 79 56 / 60 30 20 10 0 10
Omak 76 55 77 51 78 52 / 50 40 30 10 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1022 PM PDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Showery weather with a few thunderstorms will continue through
Friday over most of the region. Lingering showers will continue
over the northeast mountains and Idaho Panhandle into Saturday
while the rest of the area begins to dry out. A return to drier
and warmer summer-like weather is expected through much of next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Some of the more recent model runs that have arrived this evening,
especially the hourly HRRR model runs suggest increased pops for
Friday when another wet frontal zone makes a similar soutwest to
northeast approach. The grids may do a better job of showing the
transition between these two weather systems than the text
products do, especially in addressing the timing of intervals of
no precipitation between them. /Pelatti
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Kept the aviation forecasts rather heavy handed and
brief in the mention of showers at times in order to better
attempt some timing between weather systems producing the
precipitation. Tonight we have an exiting system working its
way through a good number of the aviation forecast points while
a second system is making an approach and is showing up quite
well making landfall on the coast. That second system will
influence the morning and afternoon hours for Friday. Some
thunder mentioned in the afternoon as well. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 55 72 53 71 50 72 / 60 50 40 30 20 10
Coeur d`Alene 53 69 51 69 48 70 / 50 50 60 50 30 10
Pullman 53 70 50 69 46 69 / 50 30 30 30 10 10
Lewiston 57 78 56 76 54 77 / 60 40 30 20 10 10
Colville 53 74 51 70 48 74 / 70 50 50 60 40 10
Sandpoint 52 67 50 65 46 68 / 50 60 60 60 40 20
Kellogg 51 67 50 62 46 64 / 50 50 50 70 40 20
Moses Lake 59 81 55 80 54 79 / 20 40 10 10 10 0
Wenatchee 59 79 57 78 56 79 / 30 40 10 10 10 0
Omak 56 79 53 77 51 78 / 30 30 30 30 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
643 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND
WHERE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP.
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR AND 500MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SLOW MOVING
TROUGH OVER WESTERN IOWA DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. A BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH ALONG THE NOSE OF A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
JET. 0-3KM MUCAPE IS FAIRLY WEAK AT 500-1000 J/KG AND IS FORECAST
TO STAY AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AT 20KTS...NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THIS
CONVECTION TO BECOME UNRULY THIS MORNING.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS MORNING BEHIND THIS BAND...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY INITIATE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. 27.06Z RAP
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO DEEP WIND
SHEAR. WITH SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER UP AROUND
1.50-2.00INCHES...EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM TODAYS/TONIGHT
CONVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THE MAIN STORY OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD IS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING APPEARS
TO BE THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WITH BOTH EVENTS LIKELY
INITIATING TO OUR WEST AND THEN COMING THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR SATURDAY...CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL INITIATE ALONG/AHEAD
OF A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT IN
WESTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPORT ANY CONVECTION TRACKING TO
THE EAST AS PART OF A SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. DEEP SHEAR
DOES NOT LOOK THAT GREAT...BUT IS FAIRLY DECENT IN THE LOWEST 3KM
WHICH MAY SUPPORT MORE OF A WIND THREAT. THE 27.00Z GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGER 500-300MB QG FORCING WILL BE OUT IN
WESTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA IN THE AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS IT AS IT MOVES
IT INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE 27.00Z GFS DOES APPEAR
TO BE ODD MODEL OUT AS IT IS SLOWER AND MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH QPF
AMOUNTS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS HITTING THE MID/UPPER 70S...WHICH
IS WAY TOO HIGH. OVERALL THINKING IS THAT TIMING WILL BE THE
BIGGEST ISSUE WITH HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE AS
THE LATER IN THE NIGHT THAT THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...THE LESS
LIKELY IT IS TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS/HEAVY RAIN
LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS TO THE REGION IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
IF YOU DISCOUNT THE 27.00Z GFS...MUCH OF SUNDAY SHOULD END UP DRY
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION AGAIN OCCURRING OUT
TOWARD SIOUX FALLS SD ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE MUCH MORE UNSTABLE THAN WHAT
WE HAVE FOR SATURDAY WHICH...ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
LLJ...SHOULD HELP TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION RUNNING EAST INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY EVENING. THE QUESTION FOR THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE
WITH HOW DEEP THE WIND SHEAR WILL BE AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH.
A STRONG 50-80KT 500MB JET STREAK WILL BE ROUNDING THE TROUGH AND
MOVING INTO MINNESOTA SUNDAY EVENING...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE TRAILING BEHIND THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WHERE THE STORMS DEVELOP. 0-3KM SHEAR STILL LOOKS STRONG AT
25-40KTS...SO WIND MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN HAZARD AGAIN. WHILE
THE STRONGER 0-6KM SHEAR APPEARS TO LAG BEHIND THE
CONVECTION...THE 0-1KM SHEAR/HELICITY ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. SO...CAN NOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME QLCS TYPE TORNADOES SIMILAR TO
WHAT OCCURRED BACK ON THE 16TH.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MONDAY AND SEE WHERE THE COLD FRONT
ENDS UP DURING THE DAY. THE 27.00Z ECMWF IS A TAD SLOWER THAN THE
GFS/GEM AND KEEPS SOME WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE
DAY ALONG THE FRONT. BEYOND THAT...THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS
FAIRLY DECENT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION/WARM AIR TO
DEAL WITH. HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S GOING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
A SERIES SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST ROUND IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
TAF SITES. MEASO MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE TAFS SITES BY 27.15Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN
27.20Z AND 27.02Z. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR.
WITH THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A MVFR/IFR DECK OF
CLOUDS DEVELOPING AROUND 28.08Z...ADDED THIS TO BOTH TAF SITES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME MAINLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
TODAY WITH ANY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR FLASH
FLOODING MAY COME IN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A NUMBER OF SYSTEMS
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO AN AIR MASS THAT IS LOADED WITH
MOISTURE. WITH RIVERS ALREADY ELEVATED DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAIN...SOME ADDITIONAL RISES MAY OCCUR. THE MISSISSIPPI WILL
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO RUN OFF UPSTREAM FROM
LAST WEEKS RAINFALL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1113 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FORECAST TO BRING IN CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BROUGHT MID TO UPPER 50 DEW
POINTS INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...HOWEVER
FINE LINE EVIDENT IN RADAR IS HEADING WESTWARD LIKELY MARKING THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE DRYING WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. RAP13 SUGGESTS THIS MOISTURE MAY STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF KIOWA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM. LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO BE CATCHING ON
TO THIS SCENARIO WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. SO WILL BE WATCHING THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OF TO THE NORTHEAST
FAIRLY QUICKLY. ELSEWHERE...HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THESE HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHER CONCERN IS SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
MODELS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO COME UP A BIT AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES
ACROSS. NOT GETTING ENOUGH AREAL COVERAGE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO GO OUT WITH A RED FLAG WARNING...BUT SPOTTY AREAS
MAY HIT CRITERIA AT TIMES. WILL BE MONITORING THIS EVOLUTION CLOSELY.
WITH THE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014
CURRENTLY...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED VCNTY KLHX. THIS LOW WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STOUT SHORT WAVE WHICH WAS ENTERING INTO W CO AT
THIS HOUR (2 AM). EAST OF THIS LOW DWPTS WERE IN THE 60S WHILE ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR...DWPTS WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S. THE LLVL JET WAS
GRADUALLY DECREASING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AS WIND SPEEDS HAVE
BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING. A LARGE MCS WHICH WAS OVER NE/CO/KS AREA
EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS MOVED EAST IN C KS/C NE. HIGH BASED RADAR
ECHOES WERE NOTED OVER THE WEST SLOPE WITH SHOWERS OVER WY.
TODAY...
ALTHOUGH A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION...WE (NWS PUB
CWA) WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WX WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SVR STORM OVER FAR E
KIOWA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON....THE BRUNT OF ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
OCCUR JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA AS ALL GUIDANCE BREAKS OUT
SVR CONVECTION ACROSS NW KS AND NE CO. AS FOR THE MTNS...THE BEST
CHANCE OF TSRA AND DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL MTN
REGIONS TODAY. SFC WINDS OVER THE REGION WILL BE WESTERLY...AND THEY
WILL BE GUSTY OVER THE MTNS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH OVER
THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXITING OUT OF
THE ARK RVR VALLEY AND ACROSS N PUEBLO COUNTY.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDER
OVER E KIOWA COUNTY. EXPECT BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO OCCUR
AROUND THE 3-5 PM WINDOW...WITH THE ACTIVITY QUICKLY MOVING INTO WC
KS. WIND AND HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. IF THIS WX SYSTEM
WOULD HAVE BEEN ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER...THEN THE SVR THREAT WOULD
HAVE BEEN MUCH GREATER OVER OUR EASTERN PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIF THUNDER IS EXPECTED IN THE
MTNS TODAY...WE WILL SEE SEVERAL CG FLASHES. THE MTNS HAVE NOT SEEN
HARDLY ANY PRECIP OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS AND IT HAS BEEN QUITE
WARM. LIKEWISE...I EXPECT WE WILL SEE A FEW FIRE STARTS DUE TO THE
LTG STRIKE ACTIVITY.
MAX TEMPS TODAY OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE WARM...BUT NOT AS WARM AS
YDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE L/M 90S MOST AREAS WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS
ALONG THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEY EAST OF KPUB. 80S SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS
EL PASO COUNTY.
GIVEN THE WIND OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND MIN RH VALUES AOA 15%...POCKETS
OF ELEVATED AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT DUE TO THE MARGINAL VALUES...NO FIRE WX HILITES
WILL BE ISSUED.
TONIGHT...
WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLD SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING AS THE
COOL FRONT COMES DOWN AND SFC MSTR INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT.
HOWEVER NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WETTING PRECIP IS EXPECTED. BY
MIDNIGHT...ANY PRECIP WILL BE DONE AND OVER WITH. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOW
ENSEMBLE SPREADS LEADING TO A HIGHER LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH BROAD ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS ARE KEEPING
THE REGION DRY ON SATURDAY IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH. BY SUNDAY...WEAK ENERGY IN THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TO BE DRY. DRY AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION WHICH SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND.
FOR NOW COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK VERY WIDESPREAD SO FEEL THIS THREAT
IS SMALL AT THIS TIME...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BY TUESDAY MORNING. MOIST LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WEAK ENERGY
ALOFT IN THE TRAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP FIRE OFF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD IT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. GIVEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...THERE COULD BE
FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS ON THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR. AT THIS TIME
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREATS LOOKS LOW GIVEN THE WEAK
SHEAR...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS WESTERN CONUS AND MOVE
INTO THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK ENERGY
WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH IS
FORECAST TO EXCITE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE 90S. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
FROM THE WEST AT KALS AND KPUB AT 15-25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS AT KCOS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10-15 KTS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP BY 19Z AND MAY PASS NEAR THE KCOS AND KALS TERMINALS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE COULD PRODUCE SOME ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
TO 40KTS AND LIGHTNING. HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS
LIKELY AT KPUB TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL BRING A NORTH
WIND SHIFT AT KCOS AND KPUB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY MORNING.
-KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1054 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014
WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING OUT OVER EASTERN COLORADO
AT THE PRESENT TIME...AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO ASSIST
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ROUND OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO SHOULD HELP SURFACE WINDS
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TO BACK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DRAWING
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. CUMULUS FIELD
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING IS INDICATIVE OF THE
MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY PRESENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
ALL OF THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL COME TOGETHER
FOR A FEW HOURS OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE OVER THE
FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE MOST PLENTIFUL. RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY NEAR THE COLORADO AND UTAH BORDER
AND WILL CROSS THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD. QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
VERTICAL VELOCITIES SHOWING MODEST ASCENT WILL OCCUR THROUGH
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST THEREAFTER. THIS ASCENT...COUPLED WITH DAY TIME HEATING...
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK OUT IN MOST AREAS
TODAY. FORECAST REFLECTIVITIES FROM THE LAST FEW HRRR RUNS SEEM TO
HAVE A REASONABLE DEPICTION OF THIS ACTIVITY OVERALL WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS /SOME SEVERE/ AGAIN EXPECTED EAST OF THE URBAN
CORRIDOR WHERE RICHER MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES
WILL EXIST. CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE PALMER DIVIDE
AREA...MODELS SHOW DRIER LOW LEVELS LATER TODAY IMPLYING THAT
HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALLER RAIN CHANCES WILL
PREVAIL IN THOSE LOCALES. MOISTURE HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY BACK
INTO THE DENVER AREA THE LAST LITTLE WHILE AS SURFACE WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE NORTH. DEWPOINTS ARE ON THE UPTICK AND GPS
PRECIPITABLE WATER AT BOULDER HAS INCREASED 0.13 INCHES IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BANKING ON THIS MOISTENING BEING A TEMPORARY
SITUATION WITH DRYING EXPECTED MID TO LATE MORNING PRODUCING THE
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SHOWN IN THE MODELS. WITH THE QQ SUBSIDENCE
TAKING HOLD LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT CLEARING
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED MUCH AS SHOW IN THE WRF/CIRA FORECAST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE SOME LINGERING
OROGRAPHIC ACTIVITY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE TROUGH. MODERATELY FAST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP STORMS
MOVING ALONG TO MINIMIZE FLOODING CONCERNS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014
ON SATURDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING WELL EAST OF THE STATE. THE FORMATION OF A
LEESLOPE MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCES DOWNSLOPE FLOW DURING THE MORNING
HOURS IN AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. NAM...GFS...ECMWF
AND GEM SHOW THIS DRY WESTERLY FLOW LASTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...
ALTHOUGH THESE SAME MODELS SHOW A SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY WIND
FARTHER OUT ON THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY WHICH DOES NOT APPARENT
TO REPLENISH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUSHED OUT BY THE DOWNSLOPE
FLOW EARLIER IN THE DAY. SO SATURDAY SHOULD BE STORM-FREE EVEN IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY AS MID-LEVELS LOOK SUBSIDENT. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES NEAR AVERAGE MAX TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ON
THE PLAINS AND 60 AND 70S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. SATURDAY NIGHT
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE PLAINS STRENGTHENS WITH PRESSURE
FALLS UP IN NEBRASKA. THIS DRAWS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS
INDICATED BY THETA-E RIDGING ALONG THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER.
ON SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE REGION WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING BY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING MODELS COULD SEE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ON THE MTN
RIDGES AND EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
AT THEIR STRONGEST. SUNDAY SHOULD START OUT DRY WITH POST-TROUGH
SUBSIDENCE...BUT DURING AFTERNOON CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A STEADY
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER. THE GFS AND TO A LESSER DEGREE...THE NAM AND EC...SHOW A WEAK
BOUNDARY OF SOME KIND...PERHAPS A DRY LINE OR A SFC TROUGH...
STRADDLING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. THIS BNDRY...ASSUMING
ITS REAL...COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR A FEW HIGH BASED T-STORMS
CAPABLE OF STG GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF SHOWER. OTHERWISE SUNDAY LOOKS
DRY AND QUITE WARM...IF NOT HOT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MAX
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND UPPER 60S TO
MID 80S ACRS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. HOWEVER WITH THE MODEST COOLING
ALOFT AND THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON...FEEL
MORE COMFORTABLE WITH GOING WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS...SAY THE
LOWER TO MID 90S ON THE PLAINS.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO ON NORTH-NORTHEAST SFC
WINDS AROUND MIDNIGHT. MODELS SHOW THIS FRONTAL BNDRY RACING SOUTH
TO THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO LINE BY AROUND 12Z/MON. MOST MODELS SHOW
THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS TO BE DRY...HOWEVER THE NAM SHOWS ELEVATED
DEWPT AND RH VALUES SPREADING SOUTHWARD OVER NERN COLO BEHIND THE
FRONT DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS POSSIBLY RESULTING
IN A DECK OF STRATUS ACROSS THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE
THE ADVANCING AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER BY SEVERAL DEGS. BY
AFTERNOON...A STG SFC HIGH TRACKING ACRS WY CAUSES SFC WINDS EAST
OF THE CO FRONT RANGE TO TURN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY...AND WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...WE COULD SEE LOW TOP CONVECTION OVER AND ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES...PROBABLY NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT SINCE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER APPEARS QUITE DRY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE ON MONDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO COOL AS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS SHOW A REINFORCING SURGE OF
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BACKING INTO NERN COLORADO LATE MONDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY PRODUCING A LOW CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF NERN COLORADO BY
MORNING. LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST. MOISTURE BROUGHT NWRD ON S-SELY BNDRY
LAYER FLOW MAY MAKE FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY TOGETHER WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. AT THIS TIME THE ODDS OF SEEING
WETTING RAINFALL APPEARS LOW AS THE AMBIENT AIRMASS APPEARS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY EVEN COOLER YET PARTICULARLY
EAST OF THE MTNS WITH READINGS AS MUCH AS 4-5 DEGS C BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THE DATE.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST IS PROGGED TO
MIGRATE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO. AS THE RIDGE PASSES
BY...SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE APPEARS TO DRAW UP
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR FROM A TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM
WHICH MODELS SHOW GAINING STRENGTH OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO.
THIS SETUP SOMEWHAT RESEMBLES A FLOW PATTERN COMMONLY OBSERVED
DURING OUR SUMMER MONSOON SEASON/ABOUT THE 2ND WEEK IN JULY TO
AROUND THE 2ND WEEK IN AUGUST/. LIGHT STEERING WINDS AND ELEVATED
PW VALUES COULD SPAWN SCATTERED LATE DAY T-STORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CWA. WILL NOT EVEN ATTEMPT TO PIN
DOWN WHEN AND WHERE THIS MAY OCCUR. FOR NOW...SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF T-STORMS WILL SUFFICE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE MICROBURSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DOWNBURSTS AND MICROBURSTS.
OTHERWISE...OUTFLOW WINDS FROM SHOWERS WILL BE MORE 25-35 MPH.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND ABOVE 6000 FEET
AGL. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE DENVER AREA BY 6 PM MDT
WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER THAT. WINDS WILL RETURN TO
TYPICAL SOUTHERLIES BY LATE EVENING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...DANKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1048 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FORECAST TO BRING IN CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BROUGHT MID TO UPPER 50 DEW
POINTS INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...HOWEVER
FINE LINE EVIDENT IN RADAR IS HEADING WESTWARD LIKELY MARKING THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE DRYING WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION. RAP13 SUGGESTS THIS MOISTURE MAY STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF KIOWA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM. LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO BE CATCHING ON
TO THIS SCENARIO WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN. SO WILL BE WATCHING THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OF TO THE NORTHEAST
FAIRLY QUICKLY. ELSEWHERE...HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THESE HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHER CONCERN IS SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
MODELS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO COME UP A BIT AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES
ACROSS. NOT GETTING ENOUGH AREAL COVERAGE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO GO OUT WITH A RED FLAG WARNING...BUT SPOTTY AREAS
MAY HIT CRITERIA AT TIMES. WILL BE MONITORING THIS EVOLUTION CLOSELY.
WITH THE HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. -KT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014
CURRENTLY...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED VCNTY KLHX. THIS LOW WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STOUT SHORT WAVE WHICH WAS ENTERING INTO W CO AT
THIS HOUR (2 AM). EAST OF THIS LOW DWPTS WERE IN THE 60S WHILE ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR...DWPTS WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S. THE LLVL JET WAS
GRADUALLY DECREASING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AS WIND SPEEDS HAVE
BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING. A LARGE MCS WHICH WAS OVER NE/CO/KS AREA
EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS MOVED EAST IN C KS/C NE. HIGH BASED RADAR
ECHOES WERE NOTED OVER THE WEST SLOPE WITH SHOWERS OVER WY.
TODAY...
ALTHOUGH A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION...WE (NWS PUB
CWA) WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WX WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SVR STORM OVER FAR E
KIOWA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON....THE BRUNT OF ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
OCCUR JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA AS ALL GUIDANCE BREAKS OUT
SVR CONVECTION ACROSS NW KS AND NE CO. AS FOR THE MTNS...THE BEST
CHANCE OF TSRA AND DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL MTN
REGIONS TODAY. SFC WINDS OVER THE REGION WILL BE WESTERLY...AND THEY
WILL BE GUSTY OVER THE MTNS...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH OVER
THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXITING OUT OF
THE ARK RVR VALLEY AND ACROSS N PUEBLO COUNTY.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDER
OVER E KIOWA COUNTY. EXPECT BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO OCCUR
AROUND THE 3-5 PM WINDOW...WITH THE ACTIVITY QUICKLY MOVING INTO WC
KS. WIND AND HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. IF THIS WX SYSTEM
WOULD HAVE BEEN ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER...THEN THE SVR THREAT WOULD
HAVE BEEN MUCH GREATER OVER OUR EASTERN PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIF THUNDER IS EXPECTED IN THE
MTNS TODAY...WE WILL SEE SEVERAL CG FLASHES. THE MTNS HAVE NOT SEEN
HARDLY ANY PRECIP OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS AND IT HAS BEEN QUITE
WARM. LIKEWISE...I EXPECT WE WILL SEE A FEW FIRE STARTS DUE TO THE
LTG STRIKE ACTIVITY.
MAX TEMPS TODAY OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE WARM...BUT NOT AS WARM AS
YDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE L/M 90S MOST AREAS WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS
ALONG THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEY EAST OF KPUB. 80S SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS
EL PASO COUNTY.
GIVEN THE WIND OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND MIN RH VALUES AOA 15%...POCKETS
OF ELEVATED AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT DUE TO THE MARGINAL VALUES...NO FIRE WX HILITES
WILL BE ISSUED.
TONIGHT...
WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLD SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING AS THE
COOL FRONT COMES DOWN AND SFC MSTR INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT.
HOWEVER NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WETTING PRECIP IS EXPECTED. BY
MIDNIGHT...ANY PRECIP WILL BE DONE AND OVER WITH. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOW
ENSEMBLE SPREADS LEADING TO A HIGHER LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY MORNING WITH BROAD ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS ARE KEEPING
THE REGION DRY ON SATURDAY IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH. BY SUNDAY...WEAK ENERGY IN THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TO BE DRY. DRY AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION WHICH SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND.
FOR NOW COVERAGE DOES NOT LOOK VERY WIDESPREAD SO FEEL THIS THREAT
IS SMALL AT THIS TIME...BUT FELT IT WAS WORTH MENTIONING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BY TUESDAY MORNING. MOIST LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WEAK ENERGY
ALOFT IN THE TRAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP FIRE OFF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD IT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. GIVEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...THERE COULD BE
FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS ON THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR. AT THIS TIME
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREATS LOOKS LOW GIVEN THE WEAK
SHEAR...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS WESTERN CONUS AND MOVE
INTO THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK ENERGY
WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH IS
FORECAST TO EXCITE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE 90S. MOZLEY
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. GUSTY SW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KPUB AND KALS THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH BASED -TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KCOS AND KALS...BUT THREAT IS TOO LOW
TO EXPLICITLY MENTION IN TAF PRODUCTS. ANY -TSRA WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1238 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
WEAK WARM FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA AND WILL LIFT NORTH
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
AFFECT THE AREA. A SIGNIFICANT NEG TILT TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SECOND UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND ALSO
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE MON AND TUE FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/... ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
WEAK MCV IN SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH 15Z. THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS CLUSTER MOVING NORTHWARD...BUT MAINLY STRATIFORM PRECIP
TRAILS BEHIND.
500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX WILL TRANSITION EAST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AND EXPECTING THE SOUTHWEST
TO DRY OUT PAST 18Z. HAVE THE HIGHER POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AS THE DEEPER FORCING MOVES INTO EASTERN IOWA WITH THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE. NO SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE STATE
AND IS EVIDENT THE DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE REMAINS PRESENT PER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT DSM. WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS RANGING AROUND
12KFT TO NEAR 13KFT AND THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.50 TO
1.75 INCH RANGE...SO STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS TODAY AS GENERALLY THE 1 TO NEAR 3 INCH PER
HOUR RATES ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE STORM PROGRESSION LOOKS TO BE
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS TODAY PER CORFIDI VECTORS...SO THE HEAVY RAIN
OVER ONE AREA SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED UNLESS BACK-BUILDING OCCURS LIKE
THURSDAY. THE 27.05Z HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...ALBEIT ROUGHLY TWO HOURS TOO FAST...BUT LEANED TOWARD THE
HRRR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR POP/WX TRENDS.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF IA WHERE
THERE IS STRONGER FORCING. NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH WILL BRING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SAT AND SAT NIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF IA. THE COLD
FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRENGTHENING JET STREAM...OVER 80
KTS, WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION BOTH SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE BODY
OF THE ZONES. DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER THICKNESS...OVER 4 KM AND PWAT
VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS PRETTY HIGH WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND CAPE NEAR 5000 J/KG. THOUGH NOT PERFECT, THE
HODOGRAPHS ARE FAVORABLE WITH DECENT SHEAR...BOTH SPEED AND
DIRECTION...IN PLACE.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS ON TAP FROM THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
ON. THE COLDEST AIR WILL MISS IA TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE COOLING
TREND DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL LAST ALL THAT LONG EITHER. DON`T
EXPECT TO SEE MORE THAN TWO OR THREE DAYS BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...27/18Z
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT DSM/MCW/ALO
INTERMITTENTLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME. EXPECT THE
STORMS TO END BY AROUND 22Z OR EARLIER...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING IN THE EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. AS WARM AIR/MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN WITH LIGHT BR
LIKELY FORMING AND HAVE INDICATED THIS IN THE 18Z TAFS. FURTHER
TSRA POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING IS A CONCERN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
WITH HIGH PWATS AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF WEATHER SYSTEM...THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IS FAIRLY HIGH. RAINFALL OF THE PAST DAY
OR SO HAS MOISTENED SOILS SO THE FFG IS DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH IN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS. THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL COME SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH THE CURRENT PATTERN GIVES AT LEAST SOME RISK TO THE
ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MS JUN 14
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS JUN 14
AVIATION...LEE
HYDROLOGY...MS JUN 14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1241 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
07Z water vapor imagery and profiler data shows a well defined MCV
over the MO river. Meanwhile a linear MCS is progressing east
through southern NEB. A longer wavelength upper trough could be seen
in water vapor from the four corners northwest into ID. Surface
observations show low pressure in the lee of the Rockies with higher
MSLP pressure over the MS river valley. A moist airmass remains over
the forecast area with dewpoint temps in the lower 70s.
The forecast for this morning will be a battle between the MCS to
the west and warming mid level temps. Regional radar imagery has
shown newer development to the south of the convection has had a
difficult time intensifying and the HRRR/RAP have been gradually
backing off on bringing the storms very far into north central KS.
Think that subsidence just to the west of the MCV over the MO river
may also play a roll in how far convection moves east. In short the
latest RAP forecast soundings indicate that by 12Z 700 MB temps will
warm to around 12C capping a surface parcel and what little elevated
instability there is gradually diminishing. Will carry a chance for
precip across the northern and northwest counties this morning, but
the overall forcing does not look strong enough for storms to move
across the whole area. At this time the afternoon hours look to be
mostly dry as models show little if any forcing. Of course the one
potential wrench in the works would be any MCV generated by the
storms in southwestern NEB. Will have to keep an eye on this. Think
south winds will become breezy today as the pressure gradient
increases. Highs today will be dependent on how deep the boundary
layer mixes. Think the NAM forecast soundings may be a little to
conservative in mixing the boundary layer and have continued with
highs in the mid to upper 80s.
For tonight, precip chances are anticipated to increase through the
night as the longer wavelength trough moves east into KS and NEB. It
appears as though storms would likely initiate along the foothills
of the Rockies and then move east again. With this in mind have the
higher POPs spreading west to east mainly during the overnight
hours. There is the potential for storms to be little more organized
as deep layer shear increases with the stronger upper level winds
associated with the trough overspread the area. 0-6KM shear
increases to around 40KTS. With MUCAPE possibly as high as 2000
J/kg, will be to watch out for some strong winds and hail. Lows
could be a little tricky if rain does move in. For now have trended
lows down a degree or so across north central KS where precip is
most likely . Otherwise have kept the forecast lows generally around
70.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
By Saturday morning, the negatively-tilted trough axis is progged
to be over central KS, expected to slowly lift northeast through
the afternoon and evening. Operational guidance is in good
agreement on an MCS shifting eastward into northeast KS early Saturday
morning with high confidence and precipitation chances inserted
for this period. Based on a weakening trend of instability as well
as warming h7 temps near 12Z, current thinking is that the complex
will track southeast and weaken during the mid morning hours.
Storms in the morning period may be capable of gusty winds and
small hail. What is more uncertain is how quickly, if at all, the
atmosphere can recover for severe convection in the afternoon.
There is some indication of clearing across north central areas in
the afternoon, allowing the boundary layer to quickly destabilize
with SBCAPE in excess of 3000 J/KG. A more favorable wind profile
appears by late afternoon with 0-6 KM shear profiles near 35 kts.
As storms fire ahead of dryline over central KS by late afternoon,
north central areas would see the best chance for severe storms.
Large hail and damaging winds would be the main hazards. Should
expect the thunderstorms to cluster and push eastward through the evening.
Activity clears the CWA Sunday morning, setting up for a very humid
and warm afternoon. Warm and moist air pooling northward will raise
high temperatures to the low 90s. Heat indices may reach the low
100s during the late afternoon. The departing upper trough to the
north will usher a cold front across Nebraska, and possibly northern
portions of the CWA, dependent on model of choice. Increasing wind
shear profiles with instability approaching 4500 J/KG would highly
suggest any storm able to develop near the Nebraska border likely to
be severe by late afternoon and early evening. Storm chances
increase overnight as a line of convection is shunted south and east
over northern and far eastern portions of KS.
On Monday afternoon, 00Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF vary somewhat on
placement of the cold front however do agree on the frontal boundary
bisecting the CWA by late afternoon. Decent convergence along the
boundary will result in organized convection, some severe, as high
surface instability peaks over 4000 J/KG and 0-6 KM shear is near 35
kts.
From Tuesday onward, northwest flow ensues as ridging slowly pushes
over the Inter-mountain West. The frontal boundary is expected to
stall over central or southern KS as weak embedded shortwave troughs
pass through the region. Off and on chances for storms are expected
with perhaps a more organized system bringing more widespread activity
late Wednesday into Thursday.
After highs in the low 90s and lows in the lower 70s through Monday,
the cool front will only lower readings slightly to the upper 80s
for highs and upper 60s for lows through Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
The MVFR stratus across the terminals at 17Z should gradually become
VFR stratus and stratocu through the early to mid afternoon hours.
VFR conditions will hold through he evening hours. Thunderstorms
will be on the increase late Tonight and spread across all the
terminals after 12Z. The stronger thunderstorms may bring brief
MVFR and possible IFR conditions to the terminals.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Gargan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1226 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014
...Updated for Long Term...
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
Later afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected. The best
chance for storms will be near the I70 corridor where capping is
weaker and there is better moisture convergence.
Thermodynamically, the setup is impressive with 3500 J/kg of
SBCAPE, 8.5 C/KM lapse rates, and decent boundary layer dewpoints.
A few problems with today`s setup though. All the models show
backing upper level winds and only about 35 kt of 0-EL shear. This
suggests that storm mode tonight will likely be on the HP side.
PWATs are forecast to be in the 1.5" range, which is well above
normal. This also suggests storms with high precipitation
efficiency. Feel the most discrete storms will be up in GLD`s area,
where mean flow and boundary layer winds are more orthogonal.
There could be an isolated tornado up north, as the HRRR is
indicating some updraft helicity. In addition, low level
directional and speed shear is not that bad. Given the
aforementioned upper level shear, it won`t take long through before
you get cold pools and resultant upscale growth, so that should
cut down on the tornado chances. Precip will exit the area
late tonight. Additional MCS activity is possible tomorrow
afternoon, with better moisture convergence and lift along and
east of Highway 283.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
The main upper jet and storm track shifts north on Sunday then a
northern branch upper trough swings across the Northern and Central
Plains late Monday and Monday night with a chance for thunderstorms.
Unsettled weather continues in back of the upper trough into
Thursday with northwest flow aloft and more chances for showers and
thunderstorms. By Friday and upper level ridge is forecast with dry
weather for a change.
At the surface, a deepening trough of low pressure in the Rockies
will give strong southerly winds of 25 to 35 mph on Sunday, with a
cold front moving across western Kansas late Monday and winds
shifting to the north and gusty. Cooler temps will follow the
front as high pressure builds into the Plains with weaker winds
into mid next week.
Lows will be mild in the 60s and 70s, with highs in the 90s Sunday
and Monday, cooling into the 80s Tuesday into Thursday behind the cold
front, then back into the 90s by Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
VFR through much of the period. Breezy winds will continue today
at 20-25 kt. Winds will decrease towards 00Z in the 15-20 kt
range. Another concern is tsra/cb`s. Coverage could remain more
on the isolated side due to capping. KHYS stands the best chance
for seeing thunderstorm impacts at the terminal.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 88 67 89 67 / 40 50 20 10
GCK 91 65 89 66 / 60 70 10 10
EHA 94 63 91 63 / 40 50 10 0
LBL 94 66 92 67 / 50 60 10 10
HYS 88 66 87 67 / 70 80 30 10
P28 89 69 88 70 / 20 20 30 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2014
...Update to short term/aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
Later afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected. The best
chance for storms will be near the I70 corridor where capping is
weaker and there is better moisture convergence.
Thermodynamically, the setup is impressive with 3500 J/kg of
SBCAPE, 8.5 C/KM lapse rates, and decent boundary layer dewpoints.
A few problems with today`s setup though. All the models show
backing upper level winds and only about 35 kt of 0-EL shear. This
suggests that storm mode tonight will likely be on the HP side.
PWATs are forecast to be in the 1.5" range, which is well above
normal. This also suggests storms with high precipitation
efficiency. Feel the most discrete storms will be up in GLD`s area,
where mean flow and boundary layer winds are more orthogonal.
There could be an isolated tornado up north, as the HRRR is
indicating some updraft helicity. In addition, low level
directional and speed shear is not that bad. Given the
aforementioned upper level shear, it won`t take long through before
you get cold pools and resultant upscale growth, so that should
cut down on the tornado chances. Precip will exit the area
late tonight. Additional MCS activity is possible tomorrow
afternoon, with better moisture convergence and lift along and
east of Highway 283.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
By Saturday morning, a fairly strong negatively tilted shortwave
trough will be located from Montana into the central High Plains.
This trough will lift into the Midwestern states by Saturday night.
There could be some lingering showers and thunderstorms over central
and south central Kansas Saturday morning as an expected MCS that
develops tonight will be exiting the region. Will continue to carry
some early morning chance pops from Hays through Larned and Medicine
Lodge but these should be winding down during the morning. As the
wave moves out, a frontal boundary will push east into central
Kansas during the day. If this front is able to push east of central
Kansas by the afternoon, any storms that develop during the peak
heating hours may be east of my area. The models suggest that the
front could linger into south central Kansas during the afternoon so
will continue some chance pops in that area until early evening.
Sunday through Sunday night should be quiet as the shortwave
continues to lift out and the stronger westerly flow aloft shifts
north somewhat. Another shortwave trough will move east through the
northern Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. This pushes another
cold front south across western Kansas early Monday which stalls out
from southeast Colorado into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles into
southeast Kansas Monday night.
The models continue to show an upper level ridge building over the
western states by Tuesday while an upper level low pressure system
tracks slowly east and northeast into eastern Canada. It appears
that the central High Plains will come under a upper level northwest
flow pattern with the frontal boundary at the surface remaining
quasi stationary just to our south. With this pattern providing low
level moist upslope flow from Kansas into the eastern slopes of the
Rockies, we could see an increase in rain and thunderstorm chances
as afternoon convection off the Front Range gets organized into
evening and night time MCS complexes.
Later in the week, the upper ridge shifts east out over the northern
and central Plains which should bring warmer temperatures to the
Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
VFR through much of the period. Breezy winds will continue today
at 20-25 kt. Winds will decrease towards 00Z in the 15-20 kt
range. Another concern is tsra/cb`s. Coverage could remain more
on the isolated side due to capping. KHYS stands the best chance
for seeing thunderstorm impacts at the terminal.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 88 67 89 67 / 40 50 20 10
GCK 91 65 89 66 / 60 70 10 10
EHA 94 63 91 66 / 40 50 10 10
LBL 94 66 92 67 / 50 60 10 10
HYS 88 66 87 67 / 70 80 30 10
P28 89 69 88 70 / 20 20 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
108 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
UPDATED AGAIN TO REFINE POPS TO THE AREAS SEEING BETTER CU
DEVELOPMENT. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS NOW POPPING UP IN THE VICINITY OF
DANVILLE. THIS IS LOCATED IN A BETTER AREA OF ENHANCED CU. BEST
THREAT BASED ON SATELLITE FOR STORMS STILL APPEAR TO BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OVER TOWARDS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE LATEST
HRRR/RAP...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE THUNDER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT AS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DIMINISH IN ACTIVITY BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. KEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES NORTHWARD AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER POPPING UP AT ANY TIME.
ALSO...GIVEN PW`S JUST UNDER THE 99TH PERCENTILE ON SATURDAY AND WEAK
STEERING FLOW...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE HWO. WILL ALSO BE PLANNING TO INCREASE POPS WITH THE
NEXT UPDATE AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING IN VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN
CHANCES TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS APPEAR ON TRACK
SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS PLANNED FOR RIGHT NOW. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN
SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1042 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP INDICATE LESS COVERAGE FOR
SHOWERS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH A BIT OF A CAP TO OVERCOME THIS
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...WHERE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS TENNESSEE
AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THESE
AREAS BY 23Z. COULD SEE A SPORADIC SHOWER PRIOR TO THIS TIME...BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE EVENING AND
POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
NORTHWARD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE THE SKY COVER AND FOG
CLEARANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS AND WX THROUGH
11 AM AND TWEAKED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH POCKETS OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOUND FURTHER EAST...BUT
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN ACTUAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE ARE
HINTS OF A WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE AREA. DESPITE
THIS...WINDS ARE GENERALLY CALM THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FAR FROM 70
DEGREES. WITH LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP IN A FEW PLACES... BUT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT IT
FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD OR DENSE...SO FAR. ON RADAR...A FEW VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE FOUND ALONG THE BORDER WITH TENNESSEE AND THESE
HAVE BEEN A FAIRLY STEADY STATE FEATURE THROUGH THIS MIDDLE PART OF
THE NIGHT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A
RATHER WEAK RIDGE HOLDING ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A LARGE
AND DEEP TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE NATION.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A FEW WAVES OF ENERGY WILL RIDE NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH KENTUCKY WITH THE RIDGE OFFERING LITTLE RESISTANCE. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE LEANED TOWARD A GENERAL BLEND BUT ALSO SPECIFICS
FROM THE NAM12 AND HRRR DUE TO THEIR HIGHER RESOLUTION.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COUPLE IN A LONG STRING OF DAYS
RECENTLY THAT HAVE BEEN WARM WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL PEAK LATE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
REMAIN A THREAT EVEN THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND PWS WILL BE RATHER HIGH WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS SO THAT
HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR ANY OF THE MORE ORGANIZED CELLS.
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE STORMS
FROM BECOMING TOO STRONG. SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT...TONIGHT/S WEATHER
WILL BE MUGGY AND MILD WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE. DO
EXPECT A BIT BETTER COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON SATURDAY AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA.
USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN THE BCCONSALL THEREAFTER. DID
MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE RIDGE AND VALLEY SPOTS TONIGHT. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS TODAY...SIMILAR
TONIGHT...AND THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW THE NUMBERS ON SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
WITH A WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH...AND A GOOD FLOW OF WARM MOIST
AND UNSTABLE GULF AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION TO START OUT THE
PERIOD ON SATURDAY EVENING...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE MODELS DO SHOW A REGRESSION
IN THE ACTIVITY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEY ARE ALL STILL
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. THE PROBLEM IS
HOWEVER...THAT NONE OF THE MODELS AGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE
ACROSS EASTERN KY...OR THE LOCATION FOR THIS CONVECTION.
BUT...WITH AN INCOMING TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT
PROVIDING ENHANCED LIFT...AND CONTINUED MOIST WARM AIR FLOWING INTO
THE REGION EVEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SOME DECLINE IN THE
ACTIVITY...BUT NOT A COMPLETE ENDING.
THINGS WILL KICK BACK UP SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO
MANITOBA AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE
SHORTWAVE...STILL LINGERING FROM TEXAS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...COMBINED WITH ANOTHER DAY
WITH WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIR PULLING IN FROM THE GULF...WILL CREATE
A LINE OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY AS WELL. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY
PULL OUT OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BREAK IN PRECIP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS THE SURFACE FRONT FINALLY MAKES IT INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES...IT WILL CHANGE ITS POSITION
TO SIT RIGHT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...RUNNING FROM WEST TO EAST. IT
WILL THEN LOSE STRENGTH AND SLOW DOWN...BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...WINDS HAVE SWITCHED TO
A MORE SW DIRECTION BY TUESDAY EVENING...CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF. THEN...AS THE
FRONT PARKS ITSELF NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NRLY. THIS WILL FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE CHANCES. THAT BEING SAID...FRONTOGENESIS WILL STILL BE
LIKELY...AND MODELS ARE STILL PINPOINTING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE INCONSISTENCY
BETWEEN MODELS AT THIS POINT IS QUITE APPARENT...SO WILL STICK CLOSE
TO ALLBLEND SOLUTION.
ONCE THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION...EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO
FINALLY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE DAY FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL ALSO TAKE QUITE
THE PLUMMET...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR AT MOST SITES FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM COULD THREATEN KSME OR KLOZ LATE
IN THE DAY...BUT ODDS ARE THEY WILL BE MISSED TO TO THE WIDELY
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY. ANOTHER NIGHT OF VALLEY FOG IS
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS COULD HINDER A MORE ROBUST
NIGHT OF FOG. THUS...PLAN TO LEAVE THE FOG OUT OF THE TAF SITES FOR
NOW GIVEN THE BETTER CLOUD COVER. ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY
TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A
MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
MORNING TOMORROW CONTINUING IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD PROVIDE SOME
MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
448 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THIS AFTERNOON A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO
NOTE ARE SHOWING UP ON BOTH WV LOOP AND THE RUC ANALYSIS. THE FIRST
WAVE IS PUSHING SLOWLY THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.P. WHILE
THE NEXT ONE OVER SOUTHERN MN IS DIRECTLY BEHIND IT...BUT SLIGHTLY
WEST OF THE TRACK OF THE FIRST WAVE. THE FIRST WAVE HAS BEEN
TOUCHING OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND A COUPLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN WI AND WESTERN UPPER MI...BUT THE OVERALL TREND FOR THE
PRECIP HAS BEEN TO VERY SLOWLY DIMINISHING. HI RES MODEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS MAKES SENSE AS MOST OF THE INSTABILITY AND BETTER
MOISTURE SOURCE IS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE U.P. WITH ONLY MINOR
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE WESTERN
U.P. ONCE THE FIRST WAVE PUSHES OUT OF THE U.P. LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP BEFORE THE SECOND WAVE
MOVES IN. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
U.P. AROUND 00Z/28...THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THE INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WEST AROUND THAT TIME AND
LINGERING THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...CLOSER TO THE
BETTER FORCING. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND WEST HALF...MAINLY NEAR THE WI BORDER
OVERNIGHT...DUE LARGELY TO THE INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE FROM RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND DUE TO THE OVERALL INCREASING DEWPOINTS OVER THE
AREA.
SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT LINGERING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING OVER THE WESTERN LAKE AND
OVER FAR WESTERN UPPER MI. THE MAIN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE PROGGED TO INTENSIFY ALLOWING A
RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. TO STRENGTHEN AS WELL. THIS WILL
HELP THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P. THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY...KEEPING
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN HALF OF THE
U.P. DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE EAST HALF UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP REDUCE ANY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE FAR
WESTERN U.P. AS MOISTURE/FORCING INCREASES OVER THOSE AREAS AS SHOWN
BY ANALYZING 1000-500RH ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER QCONV.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE LONGER TERM PERIOD ARE FOCUSED ON THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TS LATE SAT THRU MON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS AS A STRONG SW FLOW BTWN HI PRES OFF THE E COAST AND
DEEP LO PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA ADVECTS PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE
UPR LKS. TEMPS THRU MON WL BE RUNNING ABV NORMAL BEFORE COOLER AIR
RETURNS ON TUE FOLLOWING COLD FROPA ATTENDANT TO SFC/CLOSED LO
SHIFTING E INTO ONTARIO.
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...UPR MI WL BE SITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
MID-LVL TROF AND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG AND WILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM...HUMID SSW FLOW BTWN THIS LO AND
NEARLY STATIONARY HI PRES OFF THE E COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS MODELS ADVERTISE A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/TS LATE
SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE OVER THE WRN CWA CLOSER TO THE CLOSED LOW AND
ITS ASSOC FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...SOME
OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE ACCOMPANYING DYNAMIC SUPPORT (Q-VECT
CONV) MAY NOT BE IN SYNC WITH H85 THETA E ADVECTION. HOWEVER
CONSIDERING THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE PASSAGE OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND THE ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
AREA DID BUMP UP POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE WEST LATE SAT NIGHT AND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. SPC HAS THE WRN THIRD OF CWA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR ON DAY3 (SUNDAY). SINCE THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS
SHOW MLCAPE VALUES RISING AOA 1000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KT BY MIDDAY SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
POSSIBLE SVR STORMS IN THE HWO OVER PRIMARILY THE WEST HALF FOR SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS ON SUN SHOULD RISE INTO THE 80S
AWAY FM THE LK MI COOLING WITH H85 TEMPS FCST ARND 17C.
SUN NIGHT...SOME OF THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF SUGGEST
THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN CONVECTION ESPECIALLY LATER SUN NIGHT WITH
A LACK OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND DRYING/SUBSIDENCE
HINTED BY MODEL SNDGS. FOG COULD BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR SUN NIGHT
WITH WARM HUMID AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE AND A POSIBLE BREAK IN PCPN.
THE LOWEST TEMPS WILL BE MOST LIKELY DOWNWIND OF THE COOLING
INFLUENCE OF LK MI...WHERE FOG MAY ALSO ADVECT IN OFF THE LK.
MON INTO MON NIGHT...AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA
DRIFTS INTO NW ONTARIO...MODELS SHOW THAT THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY E ACROSS UPR MI. MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH WRN UPR MI IN THE MORNING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ONE NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE...THEN THE FRONT STALLS
TEMPORARILY OVER CENTRAL UPR MI MON AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER
STRONGER NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE PUSHES THE FRONT EAST OF THE CWA BY
LATE MON EVENING/EARLY TUE MORNING. MODERATE MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV AND
MOISTENING AHEAD OF THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SHOULD INITIATE MORE
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA OVER CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MON
EVENING. DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE MONDAY/S COLD FROPA AS WELL AS
NOCTURNAL COOLING WL RESULT IN DIMINISHING CHCS FOR PCPN LATE MON
NIGHT.
TUE AND WED... ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WL REMAIN IN PLACE...MOST OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS HINT THAT A SERIES OF SHRTWVS MAY ROTATE AROUND
THE CLOSED LOW DRIFTING E THRU ONTARIO AND IMPACT THE UPR LKS. IN
THE PRESENCE OF LLVL CYCLONIC FLOW OR ESPECIALLY IF TIMED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING THESE SHORTWAVES COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLD SHOWERS.
MODELS ADVERTISE MUCH COOLER AIR (5-8C OFF 00Z ECMWF) WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THESE SHORTWAVES SO BLO NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD BE THE RULE
TUE INTO THU.
THU AND THE 4TH OF JULY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE STRONG SFC
RDGG BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FM THE WEST SO HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR
DRY FCST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS BY THE 4TH WILL BEGIN TO
REBOUND BUT MAY STILL BE SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS
LIKELY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD...HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN WI
HAVE HAD CEILING AS LOW AS 1800FT AT TIMES NEAR THE IWD TAF SITE.
THE REMAINING SITES SHOULD SEE LIMITED IMPACT FROM THESE SHOWERS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LIFTS OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.P.
ALLOWING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND PASS OVER THE IWD TAF
SITE. CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS NOT
PARTICULARLY HIGH...THEREFORE KEPT VCSH AROUND 00Z. A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE IWD TAF SITE. THE SHOWERS THAT
LIFTED NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP TO CREATE AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG THAT WOULD POSSIBLY IMPACT THE KSAW TAF
SITE...THEREFORE...HAVE HINTED AT POSSIBLE VIS REDUCTION AFTER
06Z/27. OVERALL WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
WITH GUSTS REACHING AROUND 20KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LLWS
MAY BE NEED AS LLJ PUSHES IN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...WINDS MAY STAY
STRONG ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE TO KEEP THIS FROM BEING AN ISSUE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS
POINT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 448 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...LESS THAN 25 KTS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE AREA...YET WIND SPEEDS WILL STILL
REMAIN 25 KNOTS OR LESS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF
THE LAKE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
126 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
FORECAST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND TIMING OF NEXT SHORT WAVE
LATER TONIGHT OUT WEST.
THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN
IOWA/SOUTHEAST MN AND WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY IS
MOVING NORTHEAST VERY SLOWLY...AROUND 12-15KTS. THE 05Z HRRR DOES
LIFT THIS AREA NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS IT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TOWARD 18Z...IT REDEVELOPS THE AREA...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKENS
WITH TIME. SOME CHANCE ACTIVITY OVER NEBRASKA WILL REMAIN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA AS WELL. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND
HEATING WILL BE SUPPRESSED A BIT UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE NAM AND GFS MODELS DO DEPICT THIS FAIRLY WELL. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP HIGHER POPS TO THE EAST...AND MAY BE CATEGORICAL THROUGH PART
OF THE MORNING.
WILL MOST LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO THE EAST EARLY
EVENING...AND THEN FOCUS TURNS TO THE WEST LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT
SOME SORT OF COMPLEX OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AGAIN THIS EVENING AND
RIDE EAST AHEAD OF FRONT/SHORT WAVE. TIMING APPEARS TO BE MAINLY
AFTER 06Z SAT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS WEST...LOWER TO THE
EAST. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THIS WEEKEND WILL PROVE TO BE ACTIVE...NO SURPRISE THERE THIS
SUMMER...BUT IN DIFFERENT WAYS. FIRST...THERE WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN MN. AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE
DAY...ACTIVITY WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. MODELS
HAVE SLOWED WITH THE TIMING A BIT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER
INSTABILITY TO BUILD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS COULD
BRING A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT STILL THINK THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE HEAVY RAINFALL. PW VALUES NEARING 2 INCHES...IN ADDITION TO
HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND MBE VELOCITIES OF 5 KTS OR LESS ALL SPELL
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. KEPT POPS GENERALLY THE SAME FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE FIRST TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF
DRYING EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THEN ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY
WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTH OF THE LARGE
UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD ATOP A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN A REGION OF
INCREASING BULK SHEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN
NORTHEAST TO ECNTRL MN AND WESTERN WI. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY BEFORE ACTIVITY CONGEALS INTO A LINEAR
MCS DURING THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL THEN TRANSITION TO
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. THE BEST HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL
BE IF/WHERE THE LINE BECOMES WEST-EAST ORIENTATED OVERNIGHT.
TRAINING AND FLASH FLOODING COULD BECOME A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. MODELS
CURRENTLY INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-90
CORRIDOR.
DEPENDING HOW THE MCS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT EVOLVES...THERE COULD BE
RAIN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR SRN MN AND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN WI. BY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AND A DRY
SLOT WILL CLEAR THIS AREA OUT. FURTHER NORTH...CYCLONIC MOIST FLOW
MAY SPARK A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
MN...WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE STATE
TUESDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT NEXT WEEK WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS FORECAST FOR ALL OF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GOOD NEWS IS
IT ALSO LOOKS DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
SUBTLE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER
BEHIND SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CLOUDS WILL
FOLLOW THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
KMSP...
AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE SOUTHEAST...AND
ALSO WEST OF THE METRO. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
HIGHER PROBABILITIES CENTERED AROUND 00Z. ALSO...THE LOWEST
CEILINGS WILL BE NORTH OF MSP TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME TO NOT
HAVE CONFIDENCE TO RAISE THEM ABOVE 1500FT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR WITH AFTERNOON IFR/TSRA+ POSSIBLE. WINDS S AT 10KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS W AT 15G20KTS.
TUE...VFR WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS NW AT 20KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
115 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
MAIN UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE TROF AXIS REMAINS FAIRLY FAR TO OUR WEST
LATE THIS MORNING..WITH N/S SURFACE TROF/WIND SHIFT EXTENDING FROM
NE COLORADO TO WRN N DAKOTA..AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SLOWLY
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RADAR COMPOSITE IS
QUITE MESSY WITH LOTS OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE
UPPER MIDWEST..ALONG WITH SEVERAL AREAS WHERE DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE FROM FAR NRN MN INTO MANITOBA AND SW
MN/WRN IOWA.
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER NW WISCONSIN AND SOME WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS
THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PRICE/IRON COUNTIES..AND AREAS OF THE NORTH SHORE NE OF GRAND
MARAIS..BUT OVERALL THESE AREAS OR PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVER THE MIDDAY HOURS. HOWEVER..WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS
CONTINUES TO LINGER AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION
PERSISTS..AND IN AREAS WHERE LIMITED SUN HAS BROKEN OUT..CLOUDS
HAVE RAPIDLY FILLED BACK IN. WE GENERALLY EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST
FOR MOST OF THE DAY..WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MOST OF THE DLH
CWA.
THE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXES APPEAR TO REMAIN TOO FAR WEST
OF OUR AREA TO BE OF MAJOR INFLUENCE REGARDING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BEFORE LATER TONIGHT THIS FAR EAST. HOWEVER..THE
PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST APPEARS TO BE THE MCV CLEARLY EVIDENT
IN RADAR/SAT IMAGERY OVER SE S DAKOTA. AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THIS FEATURE OVER WRN MN ARE RECEIVING THE BEST HEATING AND WILL
HAVE THE DEEPEST BOUNDARY LAYER BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS VORT
MAX TRANSLATES SLOWLY NEWD THRU THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING
FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF IT..THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
LIFT/INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN FAIRLY EXPANSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIALLY THIS
WILL BE SW OF THE DLH CWA..BUT IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
SW PARTS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SVR WX RISK LOOKS PRETTY
BENIGN..BUT COULD BE SOME PRETTY DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH A
SLOW MOVING NON-SVR MCS WHICH COULD ACT TO PRIME THE ANTECEDENT
HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SAT
THRU SUN NIGHT.
UPDATES REFLECTING THE ABOVE REASONING HAVE BEEN MADE TO GRIDS AND
ASSOCIATED TEXT PRODUCTS. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO DELAY HIGHER POPS
OUT WEST UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER MOST AREAS.
UPDATES ARE ALREADY AVAILABLE.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
MSAS SHOWS A LARGE SFC HIGH OVER THE ERN GT LAKES/QUEBEC AND A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS INCREASING
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE REGION. PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES
ARE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE
REACHED THE LOW/MID 60S OVER THE SRN TIER OF THE CWA. TYPICAL MARINE
LAYER IS REPRESENTED IN THE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS WITH LOW 40S DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD...INTO THE TWIN PORTS...AND ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE. AN EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION IS MOVING NORTH FROM SERN MN
AND APPEARS TO BE LINKED TO THE RUC13 85H MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS
ANALYSIS. ADDITIONALLY...A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF IS LOCATED FROM
SERN SODAK INTO WRN IOWA. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE MAKING THEIR WAY
TOWARDS THE BRD LAKES REGION. ELSEWHERE PATCHY MID/HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY/TONIGHT/TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
TODAY...WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES TOWARDS SRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP IS GOING TO BE VERY CHALLENGING CONSIDERING THE
LIMITED PREDICTABILITY OF MESOSCALE FORCING WITHIN THIS BROAD ARE OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. WILL PUT HIGHER POPS OVER SRN/SERN CWA
THROUGH 21Z BASED ON INITIAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN SERN MN MOVING
INTO THE AREA. HI RES MDLS NOT VERY HELPFUL WITH DEPICTING CURRENT
PRECIP AREAL COVERAGE VERY WELL. UPDATES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING CONSIDERING LOW CONFIDENCE. GENERAL PATTERN WILL
FAVOR SRN TIER OF ZONES TODAY FOR PRECIP WITH STABILITY INCREASING
NORTHEAST INTO THE ARROWHEAD DUE TO THE MARINE LAYER.
TONIGHT/TOMORROW...SIGNIFICANT LLJ DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
CTRL PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRNTL BDRY. FCST MOVEMENT OF LLJ
PLACES STRONG MSTR TRANSPORT INTO WRN PART OF CWA BY 12Z. HOWEVER
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT AT MID LVLS SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL
OCCUR WHICH MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO NWRN PART OF CWA.
MAY NEED TO ADD HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO WRN CWA IF LATER MDL OUTPUT
CONTINUES THIS TREND. THIS AREA OF MID LVL WARMING IS FCST TO ADVECT
EAST TOMORROW SO WE MAY FIND A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIP OVER CTRL/ERN
CWA UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING. WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS OVER WRN CWA
WHERE MID LVL COOLING BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
A FAIRLY WET PERIOD IS SHAPING UP EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL
RESULT IN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.8 TO 2
INCHES. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE WET ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TOTAL
RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND ON THE AVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF AN
INCH OR MORE IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCAL AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE IN BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHAT OF
A DRY SLOT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF LIKELY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL THEN TRANSITION FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A COUPLE DRY DAYS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT FROM EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT A WARMUP WILL THEN REDEVELOP FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
GENERALLY MVFR/LOW END VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. THESE
STORMS WILL CONTAIN PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. HAVE HANDLED THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WITH VCTS FOR NOW AS
TIMING REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE REGION
BECOMES POSITIONED IN A MOIST WARM FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 57 75 61 82 / 60 50 80 30
INL 65 79 63 80 / 50 60 80 30
BRD 70 81 66 83 / 70 70 80 40
HYR 67 83 69 86 / 60 50 80 30
ASX 62 80 65 82 / 40 40 70 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GRANING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1111 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
MAIN UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE TROF AXIS REMAINS FAIRLY FAR TO OUR WEST
LATE THIS MORNING..WITH N/S SURFACE TROF/WIND SHIFT EXTENDING FROM
NE COLORADO TO WRN N DAKOTA..AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SLOWLY
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RADAR COMPOSITE IS
QUITE MESSY WITH LOTS OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE
UPPER MIDWEST..ALONG WITH SEVERAL AREAS WHERE DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE FROM FAR NRN MN INTO MANITOBA AND SW
MN/WRN IOWA.
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER NW WISCONSIN AND SOME WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS
THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PRICE/IRON COUNTIES..AND AREAS OF THE NORTH SHORE NE OF GRAND
MARAIS..BUT OVERALL THESE AREAS OR PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVER THE MIDDAY HOURS. HOWEVER..WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS
CONTINUES TO LINGER AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION
PERSISTS..AND IN AREAS WHERE LIMITED SUN HAS BROKEN OUT..CLOUDS
HAVE RAPIDLY FILLED BACK IN. WE GENERALLY EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST
FOR MOST OF THE DAY..WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MOST OF THE DLH
CWA.
THE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXES APPEAR TO REMAIN TOO FAR WEST
OF OUR AREA TO BE OF MAJOR INFLUENCE REGARDING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BEFORE LATER TONIGHT THIS FAR EAST. HOWEVER..THE
PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST APPEARS TO BE THE MCV CLEARLY EVIDENT
IN RADAR/SAT IMAGERY OVER SE S DAKOTA. AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THIS FEATURE OVER WRN MN ARE RECEIVING THE BEST HEATING AND WILL
HAVE THE DEEPEST BOUNDARY LAYER BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS VORT
MAX TRANSLATES SLOWLY NEWD THRU THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING
FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF IT..THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
LIFT/INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN FAIRLY EXPANSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIALLY THIS
WILL BE SW OF THE DLH CWA..BUT IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
SW PARTS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SVR WX RISK LOOKS PRETTY
BENIGN..BUT COULD BE SOME PRETTY DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH A
SLOW MOVING NON-SVR MCS WHICH COULD ACT TO PRIME THE ANTECEDENT
HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS IN ADVANCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SAT
THRU SUN NIGHT.
UPDATES REFLECTING THE ABOVE REASONING HAVE BEEN MADE TO GRIDS AND
ASSOCIATED TEXT PRODUCTS. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO DELAY HIGHER POPS
OUT WEST UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER MOST AREAS.
UPDATES ARE ALREADY AVAILABLE.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
MSAS SHOWS A LARGE SFC HIGH OVER THE ERN GT LAKES/QUEBEC AND A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS INCREASING
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE REGION. PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES
ARE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE
REACHED THE LOW/MID 60S OVER THE SRN TIER OF THE CWA. TYPICAL MARINE
LAYER IS REPRESENTED IN THE DEWPOINT ANALYSIS WITH LOW 40S DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD...INTO THE TWIN PORTS...AND ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE. AN EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION IS MOVING NORTH FROM SERN MN
AND APPEARS TO BE LINKED TO THE RUC13 85H MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS
ANALYSIS. ADDITIONALLY...A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF IS LOCATED FROM
SERN SODAK INTO WRN IOWA. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE MAKING THEIR WAY
TOWARDS THE BRD LAKES REGION. ELSEWHERE PATCHY MID/HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY/TONIGHT/TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
TODAY...WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTINUE WITH DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES TOWARDS SRN CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
PLACEMENT OF PRECIP IS GOING TO BE VERY CHALLENGING CONSIDERING THE
LIMITED PREDICTABILITY OF MESOSCALE FORCING WITHIN THIS BROAD ARE OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. WILL PUT HIGHER POPS OVER SRN/SERN CWA
THROUGH 21Z BASED ON INITIAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN SERN MN MOVING
INTO THE AREA. HI RES MDLS NOT VERY HELPFUL WITH DEPICTING CURRENT
PRECIP AREAL COVERAGE VERY WELL. UPDATES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED
LATER THIS MORNING CONSIDERING LOW CONFIDENCE. GENERAL PATTERN WILL
FAVOR SRN TIER OF ZONES TODAY FOR PRECIP WITH STABILITY INCREASING
NORTHEAST INTO THE ARROWHEAD DUE TO THE MARINE LAYER.
TONIGHT/TOMORROW...SIGNIFICANT LLJ DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
CTRL PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRNTL BDRY. FCST MOVEMENT OF LLJ
PLACES STRONG MSTR TRANSPORT INTO WRN PART OF CWA BY 12Z. HOWEVER
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT AT MID LVLS SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL
OCCUR WHICH MAY LIMIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO NWRN PART OF CWA.
MAY NEED TO ADD HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO WRN CWA IF LATER MDL OUTPUT
CONTINUES THIS TREND. THIS AREA OF MID LVL WARMING IS FCST TO ADVECT
EAST TOMORROW SO WE MAY FIND A GENERAL LULL IN PRECIP OVER CTRL/ERN
CWA UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING. WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS OVER WRN CWA
WHERE MID LVL COOLING BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
A FAIRLY WET PERIOD IS SHAPING UP EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL
RESULT IN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.8 TO 2
INCHES. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE WET ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TOTAL
RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND ON THE AVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF AN
INCH OR MORE IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WITH
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCAL AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE IN BY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHAT OF
A DRY SLOT PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF LIKELY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL THEN TRANSITION FROM A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE A COUPLE DRY DAYS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT FROM EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT A WARMUP WILL THEN REDEVELOP FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND
ESPECIALLY INTO TONIGHT...AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD. GULF
MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR...WITH SOME IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 72 57 75 61 / 40 60 50 80
INL 79 65 79 63 / 50 50 60 80
BRD 79 70 81 66 / 70 70 70 80
HYR 80 67 83 69 / 50 60 50 80
ASX 75 62 80 65 / 40 40 40 70
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1108 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.UPDATE...DECREASED HOURLY AND HIGH TEMPS TODAY AROUND 2-4F DEGREES
GIVEN CURRENT AND EXPECTED CLOUD/RAIN COVERAGE TRENDS. POPS/WEATHER
WORDING WERE GENERALLY LEFT INTACT WITH SLIGHT BOOST IN POPS FOR
SOUTH ZONES THIS AFTN PER HRRR NWP OUTPUT.
.DISCUSSION...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING
WITH BEST CONCENTRATION ALONG THE MS RIVER TRAILING SOUTH TO MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION NEAR THE LA COAST. HRRR LOOKS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE
OF CURRENT REGIME INDICATING THE RAIN SHIELD PERSISTING WHICH WOULD
KEEP INSTABILITY MORE IN CHECK IN LOWERING BL TEMPS. HAVE WEIGHTED
AFTN FORECAST MORE TOWARDS HRRR VS. OTHER HI RES MODELS THAT CLEAR
THE MS RIVER RAIN BAND OUT COMPLETELY WITH MODERATING INSTABILITY AND
BRINGING MORE ROBUST CONVECTION NORTHWARD THROUGH LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTN. NOT WILLING TO BITE OFF THIS SOLUTION JUST YET GIVEN
CURRENT TRENDS. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY IF EVOLUTION DIFFERS BUT FEEL
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S IN SW/CENTRAL MS. FOR
SE MS HOWEVER, SOME THINNING OF CLOUDS APPEARS ONGOING AND WITH MORE
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LOW-LVL FLOW, THIS AREA WOULD BE MORE FAVORED
FOR TSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A
STRONG OR BRIEFLY SEVERE STORM CAN NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT DUE TO
OUTFLOW MERGER POSSIBILITIES. /ALLEN/
&&
.AVIATION...PLENTY OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES HIGHER THAN NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH PEAK STORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TAF SITES
MAY BE IMPACTED AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME OF THE DAY WITH RAIN. OUTSIDE
OF THE RAIN AREAS...EXPECT MOSTLY HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDINESS AND RELATIVELY STRONG FLOW
WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE RISK FOR FOG...BUT SOME IFR CATEGORY
STRATUS/CIGS COULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MID
MORNING SATURDAY. /EC/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM...
AREA VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT 925/850 MB FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO
STRENGTHEN TO 25-35 KT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAS SUPPORTED A SURGE IN RA/SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE INLAND ACROSS S LA AND INTO SW MS. LATEST HRRR
SUGGESTS THIS SURGE MAY HAVE A HARD TIME PENETRATING VERY FAR N OF
I-20 THIS MORNING...BUT STILL NEED TO UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS FOR THE
MORNING AND ESPECIALLY IN SW SECTIONS. NEW PRODUCTS ALREADY OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER MORNING...ANOTHER REMNANT MCS AND ASSOCIATED MCV MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS MORNINGS IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED WITH AS MUCH
LAYERED CLOUDS AS THURSDAY MORNINGS. STILL...THERE ARE EXTENSIVE MID
CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES...WITH A VORT CENTER INVOF WEST CENTRAL
MS. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NE AND POTENTIALLY PRODUCE
SOME SHRA/TSRA PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AM. NEXT UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING EXTENSIVE CONVECTION S OF THE LA
COAST. EXPECT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NE AND COMBINE WITH
CONTINUED PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND BINOVC ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION
TO YIELD ANOTHER RASH OF SHRA/TSRA BUILDING UP FROM THE S LATER
TODAY. NAILING DOWN TIMING AND BETTER COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE...AND NOT REALLY SEEING ANY GREAT METEOROLOGICAL
REASON FOR THE GRADATION IN POPS GFS MOS SHOWS FROM HIGHER TO LOWER
FROM NW TO SE ACROSS FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN
THAT MODELS SHOW SE AREAS IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A WEAK UPPER
JET STREAK WHICH COULD HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION AS SHOWN BY 00Z ECMWF
AND SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. HENCE FOR NOW HAVE JUST OPTED TO GO
WITH LIKELY POPS EVERYWHERE FOR TODAY WITH AN INCREASING RISK AS DAY
GOES ON. AS WITH YESTERDAY...MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH MOST FAVORABLE LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW/MERGER SETUPS. FOR NOW...THOUGH...WITH LAPSE RATES
CONTINUING TO LOOK WEAK AND GENERALLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR
JUNE...PLAN TO LEAVE HWO CLEAR FOR TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS AND DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW BEGINS TO RELAX A BIT AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD A LITTLE
FROM THE EAST. HENCE EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO BE LESS FRI NIGHT
THAN TONIGHT...AND WILL MAINLY CONFINE CONVECTION TO THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS TREND OF GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS CONTINUES INTO SAT
ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER PW VALUES MORE IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH
RANGE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESSER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON
SATURDAY...BUT WITH THE WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE
AND INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED TSRA
TO DEVELOP MOST AREAS BY MIDDAY. IN FACT...A NUMBER OF SIGNS POINT TO
SAT HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MORE ROBUST DAY WITH REGARD TO
POTENTIALLY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN THE
PERSISTENTLY WET PATTERN OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS AGREE THAT
AS HEIGHTS BUILD A LITTLE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LAPSE RATES WITH VERTICAL TOTALS
FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE 27 TO 29 DEGREE RANGE. LESS DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN MORE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE
VALUES FORECAST TO APPROACH 3000 J/KG OVER PARTS OF THE AREA.
FINALLY...MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH FAVORABLE DEEP
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND ACTUALLY SOME DECENT (FOR JUNE) LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...WITH 0-1 KM S-R HELICITY IN THE 100-200 M2/S2 RANGE AND BULK
SHEAR 10-20 KT. SPC HAS ALL BUT THE SE IN 5 PCT SEVERE PROBABILITIES
FOR SAT...AND 00Z MODELS IMPLY THAT WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS SHOULD
HAVE BEST RISK FOR MORE POTENT STORMS. MAY MENTION A LIMITED SEVERE
RISK IN HWO FOR SAT...AND REGARDLESS TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED GOING
INTO WEEKEND.
WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES...MAX TEMPS THURSDAY ACROSS AREA RANGED
FROM A FEW DEGS BELOW TO A FEW DEGS ABOVE FORECAST...BUT OVERALL
TREND WAS FOR ANY MINIMAL AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO POP TEMPS UP A BIT
HIGHER THAN FORECAST. HENCE WITH CURRENT CLOUD COVER EVEN LESS
EXTENSIVE THAN YESTERDAY WILL JUST GO WITH GFS MOS FOR TODAY...AND
IN FACT GENERALLY STICK NEAR GFS MOS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
/AEG/
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLY LESS RAIN CHANCES OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
TIME COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...LESS COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AND CLOUDS THROUGH MID-WEEK...WILL IN TURN ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON WITH
CONTINUING HUMID CONDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAKENING IN THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW WEAK
TROUGHING TO SETUP FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTH INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...PLACING US UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR AT
LEAST SOME PERIOD OF TIME DURING THE EXTENDED. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE CURRENTLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL CAUSE A
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHWEST INTO THE CWA DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS LINGERS THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY...AIDING TO SPARK CONVECTION OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MEANWHILE THE ECWMF
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND SENDING THE BOUNDARY WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO.
THAT SAID...BOTH MODELS...BUT NAMELY THE ECMWF AS AGAIN IT`S THE
AGGRESSOR WITH ITS NORTHWEST FLOW SOLUTION AND FRONTAL
MOVEMENT...ALSO HINT THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THIS
FLOW COULD TRAVERSE THE REGION PERHAPS BRINGING A COMPLEX OR TWO OF
STORMS SOUTHEAST NEAR OR THROUGH THE REGION. I`LL LEAN A BIT CLOSER
TO THE GFS THIS PACKAGE...WHICH ESSENTIALLY PROMOTES WEAKER BUT A
MORE QUASI-NORTHWEST FLOW FOR A SHORTER TIME AND HANGS UP THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY...I FIND IT HARD TO BELIEVE THE FRONT MAKING IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS GIVEN SUCH ADVERTISED HIGH HEIGHTS THERE.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD AS THEY
ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S. LESS COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WILL ALLOW HIGH TO CLIMB INTO
THE MIDDLE 90S. THEN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY...INCREASING CLOUDS...AND CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION EACH DAY...HIGHS COULD BE LOWER THAN LOW AND MIDDLE 90S
CURRENTLY BEING FORECAST. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 83 70 90 73 / 90 30 33 7
MERIDIAN 84 69 91 71 / 85 32 23 9
VICKSBURG 82 72 90 72 / 90 31 36 8
HATTIESBURG 86 72 92 73 / 72 25 35 7
NATCHEZ 81 72 88 74 / 72 29 44 7
GREENVILLE 82 72 89 74 / 87 34 34 11
GREENWOOD 82 70 90 73 / 91 34 32 11
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
ALLEN/EC/AEG/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
211 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST MOVES
INLAND THROUGH SRN CANADA SUNDAY AND SENDS A STRONG PACIFIC COLD
FRONT THROUGH WRN AND NCNTL NEB. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE
FCST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARMER WEATHER DEVELOPS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPS.
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY.
UNTIL THEN THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ABBREVIATED DISCUSSION AS WE ARE CURRENTLY
WATCHING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MULTIPLE MODES OF CONVECTION CAN BE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND GUSTY OUTFLOW EXISTS.
IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS CELLS MERGE AND CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES FORM. THE
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM RELIES ON A BLEND OF THE 27.12Z NAM AND
NEAR TERM CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS. THE OVERALL IDEA IS THAT
MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST ATOP THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. MVFR STRATUS HAS BACKED INTO THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TODAY...LIMITING LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDING FOR A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CAP /SEE
18Z SPECIAL KLBF SOUNDING/. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE STRATUS IS
SLOWLY BREAKING...WITH A BKN DECK NOW GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
A KOGA TO KONL LINE. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD FURTHER DESTABILIZE AS
THE IMPULSE CLOSES AND ADDITIONAL CLEARING OCCURS. RAP GENERATED
SBCAPES APPROACH 3000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON EAST OF A IMPERIAL TO
NORTH PLATTE TO BROKEN BOW LINE...WITH UP TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND MUCH OF THE SANDHILLS REGION. ONCE THE CAP
ERODES...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM IN TWO GENERAL AREAS...FIRST
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST COLORADO...IN THE VICINITY
OF A NORTH TO SOUTH SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW CENTERED
IN FAR WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. IN THIS AREA THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
HAIL INITIALLY...BUT THEN TRANSITION TO A WIND THREAT AS THE
STORMS MERGE INTO A CONVECTIVE LINE AND DCAPES APPROACH 1000 J/KG.
THIS ACTIVITY PROJECTED TO LIFT EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SANDHILLS THIS EVENING.
THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION WILL BE ANTICIPATED INVOF THE
TRIPLE POINT THAT IS SHOWN TO SLOWLY BULGE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STORMS IN THIS AREA MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF
TORNADO AS THE SUPERCELLS REMAIN SEMI-DISCRETE. THE TORNADO THREAT
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO
MULTIPLE CLUSTERS. IN ADDITION TO THE BRIEF TORNADO
THREAT...HAIL...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE VERY LARGE...WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION OF CAPE RESIDES IN THE -10 TO -30C
LAYER...BUT ONCE AGAIN THE VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL BE MAINLY
TIED DURING THE INITIAL SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL STAGE. THIS
ACTIVITY FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS PROJECTED TO MERGE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS
INCREASE TO THE 1.25-1.50" RANGE. MORE ON THE RAIN THREAT BELOW.
THE FORECAST GENERALLY CALLS FOR WIDESPREAD 50-60% POPS OVER MUCH OF
THE SANDHILLS...WESTERN...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING...WITH POPS INCREASING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DIDN/T WANT TO GO MUCH HIGHER AS
CONVECTION...WELL IT/S CONVECTION.
CONCERNING THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...THE POTENTIAL MCS/S/ MAY
PROVE TO BE A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AS A COLD POOL
DEVELOPS AND POSSIBLY REINFORCING A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY...FOR
WHICH REDEVELOPMENT/TRAINING WOULD OCCUR AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS.
AGAIN PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 1.25" ATOP EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 1.50" OVER FRONTIER AND CUSTER
COUNTIES. WE MAY SEE A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT.
FOR SATURDAY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHIFTS EAST WITH THE
BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT...WITH
WIDESPREAD 80S ANTICIPATED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES REVOLVE AROUND
THE PROGRESSION OF RETURN MOISTURE AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT FCST TO
ARRIVE SUNDAY. RETURN MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT MIGHT PRODUCE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. THE
BETTER CHANCES OCCUR SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS THE PACIFIC FRONT SAGS
THRU THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 ARE MORE FAVORED AT THIS TIME.
A FAIRLY STRONG THERMAL RIDGE/CAP DEVELOPS SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO 15C ACROSS SWRN NEB. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE
THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LOW OVER MANITOBA...HEATING AND
MOISTURE...HIGH CAPE AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT SUPPORT SEVERE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT AS THE CAP WEAKENS SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING. POPS TAPER
ACROSS SWRN NEB WITH THE CAP IN PLACE UNTIL 06Z OR LATER.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND THEN AMPLIFIES SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
RETURN MOISTURE DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. GIVEN THE WARMING
ALOFT...SLOW MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAKENING WIND FIELDS...ISOLATED
POPS ARE LIMITED TO THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. THE MODELS SUGGEST H500MB
TEMPS WOULD RISE TO -6C TO -8C WHICH WOULD GENERALLY CAP DAYTIME
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES RISE FROM AROUND 80 TUESDAY TO THE 90S BY
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
LOW CEILINGS DEVELOPED INTO THE VICINITY OF NORTH PLATTE AROUND
15Z. THE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH 21Z THEN
LIFTING TO VFR. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WHERE THUNDERSTORM
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
IN THE KLBF VICINITY NEAR 01Z THEN MOVE EAST AND NORTH THAT WILL
CARRY THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT INTO THE KVTN AREA AFTER 02Z.
BEYOND 06Z THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING OUT FOR GENERAL CLEARING
FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1259 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THIS DYING MCS HAS OBLITERATED THE MVFR STRATUS THAT HAD ENVELOPED
S-CNTRL NEB. WHAT HAPPENS FROM HERE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
REMAINING DENSE MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETARD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH SUGGESTS THE STRATUS WILL NOT REDEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE WAS FAIRLY HIGH THAT MOS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
STRATUS...BUT NOW THAT IT`S GONE I AM NOT SURE WHAT TO DO. THIS
HAS THROWN A BIG WRENCH INTO THE FCST. THE 07Z HRRR DOES HAVE THE
MCS MOVING THRU BUT ALSO INDICATES IFR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP/FILL
BACK IN. THE GOES-R SIMULATED FOG PRODUCT FROM THE NSSL WRF HAS
THE LOW CLOUDS OBSCURED BY ANVIL CIRRUS...BUT BY MIDDAY IT THINS
ENOUGH TO REVEAL STRATUS.
THIS WILL MOSTLY IMPACT THE UPCOMING AVIATION FCST...BUT ALSO HAS
IMPLICATIONS FOR HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
...AFTER THIS MORNINGS RAIN EXITS MORE DRENCHING RAIN IS ON THE
WAY TONIGHT AS MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS CREEP HIGHER IN THE RECORD
BOOKS...
ALOFT: A FAIRLY DEEP SHORTWAVE TROF /-2 STANDARD DEVIATION
HEIGHTS AT 500 MB/ WAS PRESSING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
WAS LOCATED OVER WY/CO/NM EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROF WAS IN THE
EXIT REGION OF A 110 KT JET STREAK. THIS TROF WILL BE SLOW TO
SWEEP THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS. IT WILL BE OVERHEAD SAT MORNING.
SURFACE: THE FCST AREA WAS IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN HIGH PRES
OVER THE ERN USA AND A COOL FRONT ADVANCING THRU THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. UPPER FORCING HAS RESULTED IN A DEEP AND MATURE LEE-SIDE
TROF. THE COOL FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE TROF AND EJECT INTO THE
PLAINS TONIGHT TO BE LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL NEB/KS AT DAWN SAT.
EARLY THIS MORNING: WE ARE DEALING WITH ANOTHER NON-SEVERE MCS
AND RAINFALL EVENT.
TODAY: THE MCS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FCST AREA BY 6 AM. HOWEVER...
THE LLJ MAY STILL BE GENERATING NEW CELLS ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF
ITS E- W ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MULTIPLE REVISIONS OF POPS ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS WE ACCT FOR RADAR TRENDS. BELIEVE WE WILL
NEED TO INCREASE POPS SUBSTANTIALLY THRU 9 AM OVER N-CNTRL KS.
CELL REGENERATION THREATENS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMTS.
STRATUS BEGAN DEVELOPING LATE LAST EVENING AND HAS OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF S-CNTRL NEB AS PREDICTED. WHAT THE EFFECTS THE MCS HAS ON
THIS CLOUD COVER IS UNCERTAIN AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.
THIS MCS WILL OVERTURN THE TROPOSPHERE...CREATING A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TSTMS LATER TODAY. FOLLOWED THE TREND OF THE PAST
2 DAYS AND KEPT THE DAY DRY PREDOMINANTLY AFTER 9 AM.
I LIKE THE LOOK OF THE GFS/EC SOUNDINGS VS THE NAM WHICH HAVE A
SUBSTANTIAL CAP AND EML MODELED AND THE EC HAS NO DAYTIME QPF
AFTER THIS MORNINGS MCS. PERSISTENT SW MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT
FRESH EML AIR OVER TOP THE MCS COLD POOL...SUPPORTING THE CAP
IDEA. THE 00Z DNR SOUNDING SHOWED YESTERDAYS BL MIXED TO 17K FT
AGL AND THAT IS HEADED HERE.
THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF THIS MCS WILL MODIFY THE SURFACE PRES
PATTERN. YESTERDAY WASNT NEARLY AS BREEZY AS EXPECTED. TODAY
LOOKS BREEZY TOO BUT IF MIXING IS HAMPERED BY THE MCS-GENERATED
COLD POOL...THAN OUR WINDS COULD BE TOO HIGH AGAIN.
HIGH TEMPS ARE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE TODAY DUE TO THE STRATUS AND
THE TIMING OF IT LIFTING/MIXING OUT. USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M
TEMPS /CONSRAW/. DID NOT GO AS COOL AS I THINK IT COULD BE. THE
18Z/00Z NAM BOTH HAVE 75-80F...WHICH IS CONCEIVABLE GIVEN WHAT
HAPPENED YESTERDAY WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS.
TONIGHT: EXPECT ANOTHER MCS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
ROLL E INTO THE FCST AREA...FOR 3RD NIGHT IN A ROW. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER DUE TO HI-RES MODELING AND HIGHER SREF PROBABILITIES THAN
WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST 2 NIGHTS.
THE PROGRESSION OF THE COMBINED LEE TROF AND COOL FRONT INTO WRN
NEB/KS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TSTMS TO ERUPT MUCH CLOSER TO THE FCST
AREA...MEANING THAT THE TSTMS WILL ARRIVE SOONER /MID-LATE
EVENING/ THAN THE LAST 2 NIGHTS.
THE LINEAR FORCING MECHANISM AND DEEP SW FLOW WITH A SIGNIFICANT
COMPONENT PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS TSTMS
ERUPTING WITH A QUICK EVOLUTION INTO A SQUALL LINE WHICH SHOULD
THEN RACE E ACROSS THE FCST AREA. POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE
PRECONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE 3000-4000 J/KG WITH A THICK CAPE
PROFILE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FCST 25-30 KTS.
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND/SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...BUT GIVEN THAT INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR W OF THE FCST
AREA...EXPECT LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE TO ALREADY BE ESTABLISHED
BEFORE THE TSTMS MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA. EMBEDDED STRONGER CELLS
/POSSIBLY A SUPERCELL OR TWO?/ WILL THREATEN LARGE HAIL...BUT THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE WILL EXIST
OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AT 12Z SATURDAY. THIS
SHORT WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST...POSITIONING
ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS BY 00Z SUNDAY BEFORE
MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS
THEN EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A
HINT OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND LONGWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AT 12Z SATURDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA MONDAY ONWARD AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW
ALSO MOVES EAST. THE RESULTANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ACROSS OUR
AREA SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MOST PART TO START THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST
ACROSS CANADA STARTING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AN ASSOCIATED
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUR AREA THUS
ALLOWING FOR MORE NORTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE THEN SOME HINTS OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RETURN
FLOW STARTING THURSDAY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION...LEFT OVER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN
CWA. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION TOWARDS MIDDAY
SATURDAY...BUT CONTINUED DPVA AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE NEARING THE AREA WILL LIKELY
PROMOTE FURTHER PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION IS
THEN EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH POPS ACROSS MOST ALL
OF THE CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THEN FORECAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS...TRAVELING WITHIN THE DEVELOPING
ZONAL MEAN FLOW OVER OUR AREA...ALONG WITH DECREASING CIN VALUES
COULD PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH
POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE
HINTS AT PERIODIC UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS MOVING OVERHEAD
MONDAY ONWARD AS WELL AND ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING PERIODIC
LOW POPS TO VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HARD TO ARGUE WITH OR AGAINST THESE POPS...SO THEY WERE LEFT
UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENHANCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...ALONG
WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WITH THE SHORT WAVE
IN THE AREA...WILL PROMOTE 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUE OF 1000-2500J/KG
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH VALUES OF 2000-4000J/KG
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 30KTS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO
OUTLOOK BOTH DAYS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO.
RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL ALSO LIKELY BE PRESENT
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE OF
CONVECTIVE TIMING AND PLACEMENT THAT FAR INTO THE FUTURE...WILL
HOLD OFF FROM ANY MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE HWO FOR MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY COULD POTENTIALLY BE A RELATIVELY COOLER DAY AS MESO-
HIGH SETS UP SHOP OVER THE AREA DUE TO RAINFALL FROM THE NIGHT
BEFORE...AND CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION PERSIST. GIVEN
THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR AREA ON MONDAY...THE
CHANGE IN LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN IMPRESSIVE AND AS A RESULT...SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE
EXPECTED FROM DAY TO DAY SUNDAY ONWARD...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 80S TO NEAR 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WE ARE
CURRENTLY DEALING WITH IFR STRATUS AND SOME DRIZZLE IN
SPOTS...WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY LIFT...ONLY TO GIVE WAY TO
POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF A
STRONG LLJ AIMED TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN TIME...WENT AHEAD AN KEPT IFR STRATUS AROUND FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A VCTS BECOMING
POSSIBLE THEREAFTER THROUGH 28/15Z. IN ADDITION TO THE STRATUS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND ONLY LET UP A FEW KTS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1229 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
ALTHOUGH CLICHE...PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE MUCH OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THAT IT WILL BE UNSETTLED. THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AS MOST OF THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER SECTIONS OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN MOIST.
ALTHOUGH FORECAST AREA DRIES OUT SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH...THIS COULD HELP SET THE STAGE FOR
STRONGER STORMS LATE SUNDAY AS SBCAPE VALUES SOAR WITH AFTN
HEATING. THIS COULD THEN BE FOLLOWED BY MORE HEAVY RAIN LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THIS ENERGY IS RELEASED AIDED BY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SLOW
MOVING UPPER TROUGH NEAR NEBR/IA BORDER AT 07Z WITH NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPING NEAR MO RIVER. THERE WERE EVEN A FEW CELLS AT 07Z
TO THE WEST AIDED BY WEAK TRAILING ENERGY WHICH WAS AHEAD OF
LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEBR. A LARGER
UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS PROVIDING FORCING FOR THESE LARGE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO OUR WEST WAS CROSSING ROCKIES FM MT INTO
SOUTH THRU CO/UT BORDER. ACTIVITY COULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVER
THE FA THIS MORNING...EITHER DUE TO CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT WITH
LEAD WEAKER TROUGH ENERGY...OR STORMS TO OUR WEST HOLDING TOGETHER
FED BY LOW LEVEL JET. ALTHOUGH SOME DECREASE WAS HINTED AT THIS
AFTN BY 00Z GFS/ECMWF...WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS REMAINING IN
PLACE...ANY BREAKS/HEATING COULD CAUSE RENEWED DEVELOPMENT PER 00Z
NAM. NONETHELESS...WENT WITH A MIDDAY DECREASE IN POPS AND TRENDS
NEXT HOUR OR SO WILL BE MONITORED FOR SHORT TERM CHANGES. COUNTED
ON ENOUGH BREAKS IN CLOUDS/SHOWERS THIS AFTN SOUTHERN AREAS TO
ALLOW READINGS TO APPROACH THOSE OBSERVED YDA. IF 06Z RAP AND 00Z
ECMWF WOULD VERIFY THESE NUMBERS WOULD PROVE TOO COOL. LINGERING
CLOUDS/PRECIP N COULD KEEP THAT AREA A BIT COOLER AND GENERALLY
MADE LITTLE/NO CHANGES TO PREV MAX TEMPS THERE. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES HIGH AND CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATING GENERALLY SLOW
MOVEMENTS...ANY STORM COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN. SOME SEVERE RISK
ALSO PERSISTS...BUT BETTER SHEAR VALUES AND HIGHER CAPE REMAINED
MOSTLY TO THE WEST. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EWD TONIGHT...
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE IN...IF IT EVEN
LEAVES IN THE FIRST PLACE.
AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES THEN CROSSES AREA SATURDAY...HARD TO
DETERMINE IF THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A BREAK IN ACTIVITY AND THUS
HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED MUCH OF THE DAY. HEAVY
RAIN THREAT WILL PERSIST UNTIL MOST OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENERGY
PASSES AS CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE SLOW MOVEMENT...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES.
SHEAR VALUES INCREASE AND IF AREA COULD RECOVER ENOUGH IN THE
AFTN...SEVERE THREAT COULD BE A BIT HIGHER...BUT IT SEEMS SOMEWHAT
CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME.
AS MENTIONED BRIEFLY ABOVE...THIS DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH COULD
CLEAR SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE OUT OF THE FA ON SUNDAY.
BETTER HEATING DUE TO EARLY DAY SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL THEN ALLOW HIGHER CAPE VALUES TO DEVELOP. COUPLED WITH
A STRONG UPPER JET ON SOUTH SIDE OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALONG
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...AREA WILL BE PROVIDED WITH EVEN BETTER
SHEAR TO GO ALONG WITH THIS INCREASED CAPE. THIS IN TURN COULD
POINT TO AN ACTIVE LATE SUNDAY AFTN AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT
PERIOD OVER THE FA. FELT 00Z GFS WAS A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH WITH
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTN...WITH THE MORE NORTH PLACEMENT
FROM 00Z NAM/ECMWF PREFERRED. THUS HIGHEST POPS WERE PLACED ACROSS
NRN ZONES SUN AFTN WITH WITH LIKELY POPS MANY AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS RATHER ACTIVE AS SLOW MOVING AND POSSIBLY
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING MCS DRIFTS SLOWLY ESE. RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE MONDAY...SPECLY CNTRL/S WHERE FRONT MAY INITIALLY HANG UP
AWAITING FOR TRAILING ENERGY BEHIND UPPER TROUGH LIFTING BACK NE
INTO CANADA. MADE NO CHANGE TO MODEL/PREV FCST BLEND OF A DRY
FORECAST TUE/WED...BUT NWRLY FLOW ALOFT...LINGERING MOISTURE AND
POSSIBLE RETURN OF LOW LVL BOUNDARY COULD CHANGE THAT IN LATER
FORECASTS. DID LEAVE SMALL POPS IN NEXT THURSDAY AS BIT BETTER
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION RETURNS TO FA AS UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING
OVER PLAINS. MADE NO CHANGES TO PRIOR MODEL/PREV FCST TEMPERATURES
WITH MOST AREAS IN 80-85 DEG RANGE FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
SCATTERED MORNING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
A FEW MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP AT ALL 3 TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF THE TAF.
WE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD BREAK IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SCATTERED CU FIELD AS WELL AS A MID LEVEL DECK
INTO THE EVENING. EXPECTING A TSTM COMPLEX TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHERMOK
LONG TERM...CHERMOK
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
609 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT SOUTH OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH
SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE FRONT...MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6 PM FRI...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS IMPACTED MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PWATS AROUND 2" AND LITTLE SHEAR WITH
VERY WEAK STORM MOTION HAS BROUGHT HEAVY PRECIP RATES AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING AS THE
AIRMASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER FAIRLY WELL...CAPE VALUES HAVE
LOWERED TO BELOW 1000 J/KG. STILL SEEING WIDESPREAD PRECIP BUT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING. HRRR SHOWING PRECIP TO
GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WITH BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
17...AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE TRENDED POPS IN A SIMILAR FASHION.
RAIN COOLED AIR HAS BROUGHT TEMPS IN MOST AREAS INTO THE 70S AND
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE 70S THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 131 PM FRI...STRONG SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT FORMED ALONG THE
SEABREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT COMBINING
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR SCATTERED STORMS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE...KEEPING THEM SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...COMBINED WITH VARIOUS LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARIES AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...WILL KEEP CHANCE OF
ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SLOW MOVEMENT AND HIGH
PWS COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS
ALONG THE SOUTH WITH THE VICINITY OF FRONT/LOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH
A STALLED SFC BNDRY TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PARTICULARLY DURING PEAK HEATING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. PARTIAL CLOUDINESS AND AN EAST FLOW
SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPS NEAR CLIMO NORMALS SUNDAY...MAINLY UPPER 80S
INLAND TO LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES.
UPPER RIDGE SETTLES TO THE SW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE SEMI-PERMANENT PIEDMONT
TROUGH REDEVELOPING BY MIDWEEK. WILL KEEP POPS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY AT
20 TO 30 PCT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HIGHEST AFTN AND
EVENING WHEN INSTAB PEAKS. LOW LVL THICKNESS RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD..THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS OF 85
TO 90 ON MONDAY RISING INTO THE 90 TO 95 DGR RANGE THRU THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRI...SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...THOUGH IN
CONVECTION EXPECT TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY RAIN. ACTIVITY
SHOULD WANE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SREF PROBS AND
GUIDANCE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED
AGAIN SAT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM FRI...SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED AGAIN
SAT...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF AREA. ACTIVITY
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED SUN-TUE. BRIEF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE
EACH NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS...AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF REDUCTION TO SUB-VFR IN ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/
AS OF 213 PM FRI...LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS. FRONT WILL LINE UP ALONG
THE COAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS OFFSHORE. WIND DIRECTION
WILL DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CURRENT MODELS HAVE
FRONT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND SURFACE RIDGE WELL TO THE NORTH TRIES TO
BUILD SOUTH. SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN WATERS
WITH THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES TO THE N AND DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE S WILL
LEAD TO MAINLY E WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS THRU SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH
SLIDES E LOW LVL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SE MON AND SOUTHERLY BY
TUE. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 15 KT RANGE MON AND
TUE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 4 FEET THRU SUN AND SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3
FEET MON INTO EARLY TUE. LATER TUE COULD AGAIN SEE SOME 4 FT SEAS
OUTER WATERS AS SRLY WINDS INCREASE A BIT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...CGG/CQD
MARINE...CGG/BTC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
234 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL WAVER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...CONTINUING THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD NEXT WEEK BRINGING A
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED OFF ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AS EXPECTED ARE POSING A FLOODING
THREAT DUE TO VERY SLOW MOTION AND ABUNDANT AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND ACTUAL AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND DEEPLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A NUMBER OF BOUNDARIES THAT CAN SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. A WEAK UPPER WIND FIELD WILL KEEP STORMS SLOW-MOVING
AND A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IN TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE DIURNAL HEATING.
HOWEVER...AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AT LEAST
SOME THREAT FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
HAVE CONTINUED TO STAY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
MINIMUMS. THIS STRATEGY HAS WORKED VERY WELL RECENTLY. THIS WILL
GIVE US LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S MOST PLACES...AND MID 70S AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...REMAINS OF A FRONT STALLED IN THE AREA
ALONG WITH LINGERING OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION WILL
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE BETTER OF THE 2 DAYS WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO THE SPECTER OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY. WHILE THE CHANCE THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IS LOW IT WILL ENHANCE
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...FURTHER INCREASING MOISTURE AND
POTENTIALLY ADDING SOME LOW LEVEL FORCING. BUILDING MID LEVEL
RIDGE...WHILE NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT SAT...IS
LIKELY TO RESULT IN A DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE SUN...AS WILL THE
SOUTHWARD/EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD.
MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT DUE THE BUILD RIDGE.
THIS WILL KEEP STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE WEAKER SIDE...LESSENING
THE WIND/HAIL THREAT. IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE
ON THE ORDER OF 5 MPH AND POSSIBLY LESS. DEEP MOISTURE...SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...AND DEEP WARM LAYER(FREEZING LEVEL REMAINS ABOVE 15K FT)
MEAN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
FLOODING.
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW
CLIMO...MID TO UPPER 80S AND KEEP LOWS ABOVE CLIMO...LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
APPROACH ON THURSDAY. SOME DRIER AIR LOCALLY ON MONDAY COMBINED WITH
THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROMOTE ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION CHANCES FOR
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MOIST
ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY RAMP BACK UP AND CONVECTION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE TUES/WED...WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES BECOMING MORE ACTIVE EACH DAY AS HEAT AND MOISTURE DRIVE
HIGHER INSTABILITY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BEHIND THIS...AS IT SERVES MORE AS A DRYING BOUNDARY THAN A
TEMPERATURE BOUNDARY. WILL SHOW DECREASED POP FOR LATE WEEK BUT WITH
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWING
CONVECTION FIRING UP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT BISECTS THE TAF
SITES AROUND ISSUANCE TIME. WITH BOUNDARIES A BIT MURKY WILL KEEP
VCTS IN THE TAF AND WILL UPDATE ONCE THEY DEVELOP. ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO BE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES...MAX CAPE VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. SO EXPECT
ISOLATED IFR IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM EAST TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 8
KNOTS BUT A FEW HIGHER GUST COULD OCCUR ALONG THUNDERSTORM GUST
FRONTS BUT THESE INCREASED WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS TAF SITES COULD SEE RESTRICTION OF
VISIBILITIES AFTER 09 UTC WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IF TAF SITES
RECEIVE ANY RAIN TODAY ALSO WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY
WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY
THROUGHOUT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD POSSIBLY CREATING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY INLAND COMBINED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 2 FT RANGE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND STALLED
DISSIPATING FRONT IN THE AREA...WITH WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LIGHT SO SPEEDS WILL BE
ON THE ORDER OF 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS 2 TO 3
FT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST WILL WEAKEN AND
DRIFT EAST MONDAY...ALLOWING STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC TO BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS CAUSES WINDS TO VEER
FROM NE TO SE ON MONDAY...AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY...BUT
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS BOTH DAYS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE 2-3 FT RANGE WITH A VEERING WIND-WAVE AND A CONTINUED SE GROUND
SWELL MAKING UP THE SPECTRUM.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
145 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND WAVER IN THE
VICINITY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...CONTINUING THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM FRIDAY...CONVECTION HAS FINALLY STARTED FIRING
OFF...FOR NOW ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER OUR
NC COUNTIES. STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING...EXACTLY AS EXPECTED...AND
POSE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. HAVE TWEAKED POPS ACCORDINGLY
BUT FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWS:
THE AIR MASS WILL MODIFY TODAY AS THE LAST VESTIGES OF ANY DRY AIR
ALOFT MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB
TO BETWEEN 2 AND 2.25 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS TO PERHAPS
WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD. A FRONT
JUST TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING WILL BE IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE
DAY AND THEN SLIP TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TODAY AND
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION
TO THE SYNOPTIC FRONT AND MESOSCALE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...WE
EXPECT SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION ON
THU...TO LIE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. AS THESE BOUNDARIES
COLLIDE...PROVIDING INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE FIRST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OF THE DAY MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS DOES MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE AS THIS WILL BE THE
AREA IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT THIS MORNING.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO ONLY INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
LAST WELL INTO THE NIGHT AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN SOME
LOCATIONS WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONT POSITIONED NEARBY.
THE BIGGEST RISK FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD WILL BE HEAVY RAIN.
GIVEN STORM MOTIONS WILL BE UNDER 5 KT AND WITH MOISTURE DEEPENING
WITH TIME...EXPECT WHERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO TRAIN...THERE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE PROBABILITY
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST IN URBANIZED AREAS. RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH...BUT
LOCALLY...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO EXCEED 3 OR
4 INCHES.
HIGHER CLOUDS FROM DECAYING UPSTREAM CONVECTION WAS STREAMING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE DAY. WE EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT STRONG HEATING AND THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF 90. RAIN COOLED COMMUNITIES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO
THE 70S AND THEN ATTEMPT TO RECOVER ONCE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT OF A
PARTICULAR LOCATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE VERY NEAR THE DEW POINTS...
LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...WARM BUT UNSETTLED FOR THE WEEKEND AS A RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY WAVERS IN THE VICINITY. THIS REMNANT FRONT WILL WASH OUT
DURING SATURDAY AND DRIFT OFFSHORE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A PARTLY-TO-MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE BOUNDARY
AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS FROM PRIOR CONVECTION SERVE AS TSTM FOCI. EVEN
THOUGH RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING ALOFT...PWATS OVER 2 INCHES AND
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPLY AMPLE FUEL FOR STORMS...WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING THE PRIMARY THREATS. TEMPS SATURDAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME TIME...HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
EASTERN ZONES...AROUND 90 INLAND...ALTHOUGH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL STILL
MAKE IT FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE. LOWS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM
THOUGH...MID 70S MOST OF THE AREA.
SUNDAY IS A TRICKIER DAY...BUT LESS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIVE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION...KEEPING PWATS AROUND TWO
INCHES...BUT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE INCREASING
ALOFT...PROVIDING AT LEAST SOME LID TO CONVECTION. THUS LOWER POP
WILL BE CARRIED SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GFS/ECM/CMC ALL DEVELOP A WEAK
LOW/TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH MAY FURTHER ENHANCE MOIST
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. ATTM NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS
FEATURE...BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TO WHETHER IT CAN ENHANCE
PRECIP POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE COOLER THAN WE HAVE
SEEN MUCH OF JUNE...MID-80S TO AROUND 90 FOR HIGHS...AND LOW TO MID
70S FOR MINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A WARMING
TREND MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
APPROACH ON THURSDAY. SOME DRIER AIR LOCALLY ON MONDAY COMBINED WITH
THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROMOTE ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION CHANCES FOR
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE MOIST
ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY RAMP BACK UP AND CONVECTION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE TUES/WED...WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES BECOMING MORE ACTIVE EACH DAY AS HEAT AND MOISTURE DRIVE
HIGHER INSTABILITY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA EARLY THURSDAY...BUT ONCE AGAIN...LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE
BEHIND THIS...AS IT SERVES MORE AS A DRYING BOUNDARY THAN A
TEMPERATURE BOUNDARY. WILL SHOW DECREASED POP FOR LATE WEEK BUT WITH
TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE BEGINNING OF JULY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWING
CONVECTION FIRING UP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT BISECTS THE TAF
SITES AROUND ISSUANCE TIME. WITH BOUNDARIES A BIT MURKY WILL KEEP
VCTS IN THE TAF AND WILL UPDATE ONCE THEY DEVELOP. ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO BE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES...MAX CAPE VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. SO EXPECT
ISOLATED IFR IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM EAST TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 8
KNOTS BUT A FEW HIGHER GUST COULD OCCUR ALONG THUNDERSTORM GUST
FRONTS BUT THESE INCREASED WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED.
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS TAF SITES COULD SEE RESTRICTION OF
VISIBILITIES AFTER 09 UTC WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IF TAF SITES
RECEIVE ANY RAIN TODAY ALSO WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY
WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY
THROUGHOUT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD POSSIBLY CREATING PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. OTHERWISE EXPECT
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS TODAY. AS LOW PRESSURE
MIGRATES SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT...THE DIRECTION WILL BACK TO
EAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLACK AS LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT WITH AN 8 TO 10 SECOND
ESE SWELL PRESENT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...WEAK FRONT WAVERING IN THE VICINITY WILL WASH
OUT ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
SC COAST. AT THE SAME TIME...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST...AND THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF NE WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. ATTM IT
APPEARS THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT...SO SPEEDS WILL
BE AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT IF THE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH STRENGTHENS MORE THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...WIND SPEEDS MAY TICK UPWARD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE 2-3
FT ALL WEEKEND...WITH A WEAK SE GROUND SWELL AND E/NE WIND WAVE
COMPRISING THE SPECTRUM.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST WILL WEAKEN AND
DRIFT EAST MONDAY...ALLOWING STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC TO BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS CAUSES WINDS TO VEER
FROM NE TO SE ON MONDAY...AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY...BUT
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS BOTH DAYS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE 2-3 FT RANGE WITH A VEERING WIND-WAVE AND A CONTINUED SE GROUND
SWELL MAKING UP THE SPECTRUM.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK/RJD
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DRH
MARINE...REK/RJD/JDW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
257 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
MCV OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE HAS SPARKED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR PROGS
THIS MCV AND ATTENDANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DO
NOT SEE ANY REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS FORECAST...SO KEPT LIKELY
POPS GOING FOR THE EASTERN CWA.
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A WET PICTURE ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
PIVOTS OVER THE DAKOTAS. NOT REAL CONFIDENT IN THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE SEVERE WORDING FROM THE FORECAST EITHER.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE SEVERE WORDING IN THE ZONES FOR THIS
UPDATE...AND CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS DECIDE IF THE WATCH WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED IN TIME BASED ON HOW THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EVOLVES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LOW
OVER ALBERTA/BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER
LOW MOVES/DEVELOPS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...WHERE IT REMAINS THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE
FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS HUDSON BAY ON MONDAY. THIS
SCENARIO WILL KEEP A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
MONDAY...AND HENCE A CHANCE OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS.
IN ADDITION...WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW IN
EXITING THE REGION...A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BENEATH THE UPPER LOW
WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND BRING GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND
BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE RIDGE FLATTENS BY FRIDAY AND CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
WITH FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW.
A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS 65 TO 75 MONDAY...WARMING TO 75 TO 85 BY
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THE MVFR CONDITIONS AT KDIK AND KJMS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
BY 20Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
218 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...BUT STILL DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION. THE HRRR IS DOING A GOOD JOG IN THE NEAR
TERM...AND THE NAM/GFS ARE NOT TOO BAD WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES
INTO SUNDAY.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY...AND WE WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. THERE IS A
SHORTWAVE/MCV THAT WILL LIFT NORTH AND AFFECT THE DVL BASIN AND
THE VALLEY. EXPECT VIGOROUS CONVECTION WITH TORRENTIAL
RAIN...SOME SMALL HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME WIND GIVEN THE HIGH
MOISTURE...PWATS TO 1.75 INCHES LATER TONIGHT AND MUCAPE TO 3000
J/KG. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT AN
EVEN INTO SAT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DEEP LAYERED SHEAR ONLY AROUND
25-30KT. GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND 70 DEWPOINTS...WE CAN
NEVER TOTALLY RULE OUT SEVERE STORMS. WE WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN
THE GRIDS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO THE MN
COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT AND SAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...WITH
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ANYWHERE A THUNDERSTORM CAN DEVELOP IN THIS
TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE REGION SATURDAY...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
LIKELY AFTER PERHAPS A BREAK DURING THE MORNING WITH MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS...SINCE THE LLJ IS NOT THAT STRONG AROUND
30-35KT OR SO. ONCE AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN WITH
DEEP LAYERED SHEAR FAIRLY WEAK BUT A BIT STRONGER THAN TODAY...SO
ONCE AGAIN A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH HAIL/WIND. THERE WILL
BE SOME AREAS THAT COULD RECEIVE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES...PERHAPS MORE WHERE STORMS PERSIST FOR ANY
LENGTH OF TIME THROUGH SATURDAY.
ON SAT NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A DRYING TREND FROM WEST TO EAST AND
THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD END.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
ON SUNDAY...A STRONG LOW WILL WRAP UP IN CANADA WITH STRONGER
WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. THERE WILL BE THE
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAINLY IN THE NORTH.
FOR MONDAY...IT SHOULD BE COOL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A STORM. THERE WILL STILL BE HIGH PWATS OVER 1.25
INCHES IN THE NORTH...SO MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN/T BE
RULED OUT.
LARGE UPPER LOW WILL DEPART THE AREA TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH A
LINGERING LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS. THEN DRIER AIR WORKS IN
FOR WED-THU BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES BRINGING CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF HAVING RUN TO
RUN ISSUES IN REGARDS TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE NRN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK OR A FLATTER ZONAL
FLOW. HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR A SHORT WAVE WILL IMPACT NORTH
DAKOTA/NRN MN LATE WEEK BUT UNLIKE THE PAST TWO SYSTEMS MAY NOT
LINGER AROUND AS LONG AS IT MOVES EAST FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY. LATE
WEEK MAY TURN QUITE WARM AND VERY HUMID.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
A MOST DIFFICULT FORECAST AS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
SHOWER/TSTMS AT ANY ONE SIGHT MAKES IT DIFFICULT WHETHER TO GO
VICINITY THUNDERSTORM OR PREDOMINATE FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME. STUCK
WITH A LONG TERM VCTS FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH ONLY
PREDOMINATE AT DVL TONIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING AS THREAT SEEMS HIGHER
THERE. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND AT TIMES 12 TO 25 KTS THRU
THIS EVE AND DIMINISH A BIT OVERNIGHT. AS FOR CIGS...CONVECTIVE
CUMULUS FORMING AROUND 2500 FT AGL AND LOW CIGS RISING TO ABOUT
2000-2500 FT AGL. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN AT THESE LEVELS FOR THE
MOST PART THE NEXT 24 HOURS....THOUGH SOME LOWERING CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE ESP DVL BASIN WITH MORE RAIN THERE. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION CIGS COULD GO BACK INTO IFR RANGE 10Z-14Z SAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
CANCELLED THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THE S BUFFALO RIVER AT SABIN
WHERE RIVER LEVELS DROPPED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND FOR THE TWO RIVERS
RIVER AT HALLOCK...WHERE STAGES PEAKED JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE
RED RIVER AT FARGO CONTINUES TO DECLINE...WHILE RIVER STAGES ARE
HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY FROM EAST GRAND FORKS TO DRAYTON. OSLO IS THE
ONLY FORECAST POINT THAT REMAINS IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. PLACEMENT
AND COVERAGE OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND WILL DETERMINE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FOR AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
POSE THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THUS...FLOODING CONCERNS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001>004-007-
029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1249 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
MCV OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IS GENERATING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...JUST WEST OF ABERDEEN. THE
LATEST HRRR PROGS THIS MCV AND ATTENDANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
MOVE NORTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE
ANY REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS FORECAST...SO KEPT LIKELY POPS
GOING FOR THE EASTERN CWA. HOWEVER...LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY WEST WHERE IT APPEARS AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME INITIATING.
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT A WET PICTURE ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH PIVOTS INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY
AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...AND WILL ALLOW
LATER SHIFTS DECIDE IF THE WATCH WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO TAMP DOWN POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR OBS AND TRENDS.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. LAST NIGHT`S CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND WORKED OVER THE ATMOSPHERE QUITE A BIT. IT WILL TAKE A
WHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RELOAD AND FOR CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO
FIRE ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE...THE HIGHEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR (~30 KNOTS)
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON
WHEREAS THE GREATEST INSTABILITY (MUCAPE ~1000 J/KG) IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE DISCONNECT WITH
THESE PARAMETERS SHOULD HAMPER THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY. WITH THAT
BEING SAID...DO NOT THINK THE SEVERE THREAT IS ZERO EITHER.
FROM THIS MORNING`S BISMARCK SOUNDING...PWATS ARE AROUND THE 80TH
PERCENTILE...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE ONE STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE
NORMAL. GIVEN THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. THE NEXT WAVE OF
CONVECTION AS OF 1145 UTC WAS PROPAGATING NORTH OUT OF SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WILL ENTER NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN 12-14 UTC. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE OF STORMS THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR DETAILS A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH
DAKOTA WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT
BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT STRAGGLING NEAR/ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER WILL LIFT INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A LARGE SHIELD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT
THESE TO GENERALLY MAINTAIN A NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. DESPITE SOME
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IN THE MID MORNING HOURS...A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE/COLD FRONT IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL ADVANCE INTO WESTERN
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY
UPPER WIND FLOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON PER APPROACH OF THE
NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH...EXPECT THE SURFACE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN TO
A CREEP AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE UPPER FLOW. THE FRONT WILL
LIMP FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
06Z- 12Z SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A PRIME THREAT AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH FROM PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND MENTION
HEAVY RAIN. IN ADDITION...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA PER SPC CONVECTIVE DAY 1 OUTLOOK WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ITS REFLECTION AT
THE SURFACE ACROSS THE JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THUS...FOCUSED THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 ON SATURDAY...DECREASING TO THE WEST. THE SEVERE AND
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA WHERE THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE LOCATED
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ON SUNDAY...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER
LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. A DRY SLOT
OVERTAKES THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOCUSED ACROSS THE
US HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE 984-986 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
MANITOBA SUPPORTS WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...NON-SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL MONDAY IN GREATER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
UNDER COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THE DEPARTING DEEP LOW
INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. THEREAFTER...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH IS
NOTORIOUS FOR IMPULSES WITH LOW PREDICTABILITY SUPPORTING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION. THIS PATTERN ALSO SUPPORTS CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THE MVFR CONDITIONS AT KDIK AND KJMS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
BY 20Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1236 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
CEILINGS AROUND 2500 TO 3000 FT WILL GRADUALLY RISE AND BECOME
SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE
DRYLINE IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS
EVENING...AND MAY AFFECT KGAG AND KWWR EARLY TONIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...A TSRA COMPLEX OVER KS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE FORMED...AND
WILL THEN MOVE SE TOWARD NORTH-CENTRAL OK. THIS COMPLEX...IF IT
HAPPENS MORE OR LESS AS PLANNED...WILL BRING TSRA TO KPNC
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL AFFECT WINDS AT ALL SITES IN N OK. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH THE PROBABLE EXCEPTION OF SW OK AND KSPS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX... WINDS... TEMPS...
DISCUSSION...
15Z SFC ANALYSIS CENTERS THE SFC LOW OVER SERN CO/SWRN KS. IN
RESPONSE... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
OK/TXPH BORDER. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH OBS... BUT MOST SITES HAVE
STAYED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA... BUT A FEW HAVE FLIRTED WITH
SUSTAINED 30MPH OR GUSTS TO 40MPH AT BRIEF MOMENTS.
LIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK
SFC BOUNDARY/REGION OF THETA E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
ACROSS THE WRN TXPH. PER RADAR TRENDS... IT CONTINUES TO HANG
ON AS IT MOVES N/NE... SO ADJUSTED POPS IN NW OK ACCORDINGLY.
FOR THIS AFTN/EVENING... THE SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES... WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS FAR NWRN OK THROUGH THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING. RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM KGAG/KWWR SHOW DECENT SBCAPE
PROFILES THROUGH THE EVENING... 1500-2500 J/KG... HOWEVER...
CONTINUAL S/SW WAA IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL KEEP A LID ON
DEVELOPMENT... WITH THE BEST CHANCES LATE IN THE EVENING AS THE
SFC LOW BUILDS IN... PROVIDING SOME LIFT. STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED
AND LIKELY SCATTERED... WITH SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED ACROSS
FAR NWRN OK.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/
AVIATION...
27/12Z TAFS...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH 15-17Z ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. WILL LEAVE OUT OF
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND KSPS FOR NOW BUT MVFR-VFR CEILINGS MAY
SPREAD INTO THOSE AREAS AND WILL BE HANDLED WITH AMD. WILL ALSO
MENTION VCSH AT KGAG/KWWR FOR FIRST FEW HOURS BUT MAIN CONCERN FOR
TSRA WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WILL BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS WESTERN-THIRD OR SO OF OKLAHOMA. WE WILL HOLD OFF
ON ADVISORY RIGHT NOW AND MENTION THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA AND
GRAPHICASTS/HWO. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EAST OF DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAIN SHOW EXPECTED OVER
KANSAS AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH RESPECTABLE CAP
WILL BE SEEN AGAIN TODAY...BETTER FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING
LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL YIELD GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP DOWN INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
LOW POPS WILL BE SPREAD DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKER.
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS FORMING
EAST OF DRYLINE NEAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ALSO MCS EVOLUTION TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST FROM KANSAS. POPS WERE RAISED AND SPREAD A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. PRIMARILY A
WIND AND PERHAPS HAIL THREAT AND MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-40.
IN THE WAKE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGD TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND STALL. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR MAINLY LATE DAY AND NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA.
WITH W-NW FLOW ALOFT YIELDING SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN POST
FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME...SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 88 73 90 73 / 10 10 20 30
HOBART OK 93 72 94 70 / 10 10 20 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 74 96 74 / 10 10 10 20
GAGE OK 90 71 92 69 / 20 30 30 10
PONCA CITY OK 88 72 90 71 / 10 30 40 60
DURANT OK 87 75 92 75 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
150 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN TO CNTRL
ROCKIES AREA WITH SEVERAL WAVES ALONG THE MAIN AXIS OVER WY TO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
WRN DAKOTAS. OBS SHOW A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STATIONED NEAR THE
SD/WY BORDER...WITH 10+ DEGREE TEMP DIFFERENCE FROM NE WY TO WRN SD.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER
FORCING SLIDES NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT WAVE. KUDX RADAR SHOWING
SHOWERS/STORMS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AT THIS TIME.
STRONGEST CAPE WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS CNTRL SD AT 1500
J/KG...OTHERWISE WEAK CAPE ACROSS NE WY WILL HINDER ANY SIGNIFICANTLY
STRONG UPDRAFTS AND LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL. NAM KEEPS DCAPE WEAK OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA...BUT LATEST RAP DOES BRING SOME HIGHER DCAPE TO WRN
SD SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH HAIL. HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVNG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
AND AN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS. WILL KEEP
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A SERIES OF WAVES CROSSING
THE REGION. DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY WEAK
ACROSS THE CWA...BUT ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO POP UP
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY DISSIPATE BY EVENING. TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014
DRIER WX WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF PUSHES TO OUR EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD
IN BEHIND IT FROM WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...MOVING INTO THE PLAINS
STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH SLOWLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE READINGS POSSIBLE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE THROUGH
THE RIDGE AND BRING A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT
MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT FRI JUN 27 2014
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN...MOSTLY ACROSS NERN WY AND WRN SD...THEN PUSH EWD ACROSS
WRN/CNTRL SD THIS EVE WITH POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER
STORMS. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WDSPRD.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR SDZ001-002-
012>014-024>032-041>044-072>074.
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR WYZ054-056-057-
071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1239 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
CURRENT MORNING ACTIVITY IS WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY. ONE EXCEPTION
EXISTS IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES AROUND CHAMBERLAIN WHERE THE COMMA
HEAD OF A LINGERING MCV CONTINUES TO SPIN AND GIVE THAT AREA SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. TO THE SOUTH...STILL A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONVECTION
COULD CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES FROM SIOUX CITY TO STORM LAKE
DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. BUT OTHER THAN THAT...THINGS ARE GETTING
QUIETER. WHAT HAPPENS THIS AFTERNOON IS PROBLEMATIC. THE SHORT
TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS...IN PARTICULAR THE HRRR...IS RATHER USELESS
AT THIS TIME AS IT DOES NOT HAVE A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION
AT ALL. THE RAP IS NOT MUCH BETTER. THAT SAID...WORRIED THAT WE
MAY RECEIVE MORE AIR MASS TYPE TSRA GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I
29 IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS SOME HINTS POINT TO
THIS. FOR INSTANCE THE ARW WHICH HANDLED THE AIR MASS TSRA THE
BEST YESTERDAY IS SHOWING IT AGAIN...AS WELL AS THE RAP13. WE DO
HAVE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TODAY...AS EVIDENCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
MCVS NEAR CHAMBERLAIN. BUT THIS WAVE IS LIFTING MORE NORTHEASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON RIGHT UP THE I 29 CORRIDOR AS OPPOSED TO THE MORE
WEST TO EAST MOVING WAVE YESTERDAY. SO ONCE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED...IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA COULD RECEIVE AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS BY
MID AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY QUIET DOWN FOR A WHILE
THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE LIFTS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...AND OUR AREA
SHOWS SOME WEAK SHORT TERM UPPER RIDGING TAKING HOLD. THEN ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE WATER VAPOR
DISPLAYING IT CURRENTLY IN EASTERN CO. THEN FINALLY THE MAIN WAVE
MOVES THROUGH MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY IN OUR EASTERN ZONES.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE A BIT TRICKY. COOLED THEM A BIT AROUND
THE CHAMBERLAIN AREA AS THAT CLOUD COVER MAY STICK AROUND A WHILE.
BUT ELSEWHERE...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE FILTERED...PARTIAL SUNSHINE
STREAMING THROUGH EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ENOUGH TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN A BIT AS IT SPREADS EAST...BUT STILL
LIKELY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. DEEPER MOISTURE WAS FOUND OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...A LITTLE OVER AN INCH AND A HALF OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE OAX SOUNDING. THE OAX SOUNDING ALSO
INDICATED WEAK WINDS ALOFT SO STORM MOTION LIKELY TO BE VERY SLOW
WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE CASE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE CONTINUATION OF THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIKELY TO
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY DISORGANIZED 20 TO 40
POP THROUGH THE DAY. DID BACK OFF ON HIGHS A BIT WITH EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
BY TONIGHT A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ONTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS BRINGING WITH IT STRONGER FORCING AND BETTER SHEAR. THE
OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS A BIT DISORGANIZED SO A LOT OF THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE WORKING OFF OF THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG CAPE
VALUES. THE BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 29 AND LIKELY DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGHER POPS AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE MAIN THREAT AREA WILL BE
NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVED QUITE A BIT OF
RAINFALL LAST NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THE LIKELIHOOD OF FINDING VASTLY USEFUL DATA IN OVERLY CONVECTED
MODELS DIMINISHES FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE ONE GOES INTO SATURDAY...
AND HENCE HAVE DRAWN BACK TOWARD LARGER SCALE CHARACTERISTICS TO
REFINE PRECIPITATION THREAT. LITTLE DOUBT THAT WILL BE WITHIN
HEALTHY TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WITH AIRMASS FEATURING SOMEWHERE IN THE 1.5 TO 1.7 IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER AHEAD OF BOUNDARY PUSHING TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA BY
MIDDAY. WITH LITTLE TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT AND BROAD LIFT FORCING
INCREASING AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT A FAIRLY
BROAD EXPANSE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING TOWARD THE END OF THE
MORNING NEAR AND EAST OF THE I29 CORRIDOR...WITH A GRADUAL TENDENCY
TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN TERMS OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ON SATURDAY...THERE IS MUCH WORKING AGAINST A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT...INCLUDING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL WAVE...PRECEDED BY VERY LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION. THE OVERALL
DEEPER SHEAR PARAMETERS ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY MARGINAL AT AROUND 25
TO 30 KNOTS. IF ANY LOCATION WAS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER
THREAT...WOULD BE PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA WHERE MID LEVEL WINDS
A BIT STRONGER AND A HINT OF BETTER INSTABILITY POTENTIAL. WHAT
WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT WILL BE FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
GIVEN THE WARM CLOUD DEPTH...AND THREAT FOR TRAINING STORMS.
EXITING TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF SW
MN/NW IA...BUT THEN ALSO A DISTINCT ENDING TO THREAT AS GET SOME
DRYING...ESPECIALLY ALOFT. WEAK RIDGING TAKES OVER...AND WOULD NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET A BIT OF FOG INTO THE MIX LATER SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING.
ON SUNDAY...SHEAR BECOMES A VASTLY MORE INTERESTING PARAMETER AS
A STRONG JET CORE PUNCHES OUT INTO THE PLAINS TO SOUTH OF CLOSED
UPPER LOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS
RESPOND TO UPPER ENERGY BY STRENGTHENING FLOW FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION. MOISTURE RETURN AT THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH EXPECTED
SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 HEAD OF COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE
DAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO KEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN
PLAY THROUGH THE DAY...COMBINED WITH MOISTURE POOLING AT LOWER
LEVELS TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO AS HIGH AS
2500-3000 J/KG. SOME SUBTLE TIMING ISSUES WITH WAVE/FRONT...
BUT GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE AGREEMENT...WOULD EXPECT SEVERAL SEVERE
STORMS AND LIKELY THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OF THE
WEEKEND TO COMMENCE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE WELL INTO
SUNDAY EVENING...AND WOULD LIKELY ENCOMPASS ALL TYPES OF SEVERE
STORMS GIVEN THE SHEAR DISTRIBUTION AND ENHANCEMENT NEAR THE
BOUNDARY.
OFTEN UNDERESTIMATED IS THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AS CONVECTION GROWS UPSCALE...AND SEVERAL MODELS MAY
BE HOLDING ON TO A BIT TOO MUCH NORTHWARD EXTENT OF CROSS FRONTAL
FLOW LATER ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIP HOLDING ON
TO JUST NORTH OF THE I90 CORRIDOR. WILL KEEP SOME LIKELY POPS
GOING ACROSS THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT TAPER OFF ON MONDAY.
TEMPORARILY AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SPILL SEASONALLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. ALWAYS INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY OF THE
MEAGER WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW COULD AMPLIFY A BIT MORE AND
INTRODUCE A SMALL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS ALOFT...OTHERWISE LOOKS TO BE THE START OF RETURN
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT BY THURSDAY THAT COULD BRING A COUPLE OF
ROGUE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD
STRONGLY LATE WEEK. AS A RESULT...STILL APPEARS THAT SEASONABLY
WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS WILL SET IN FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE SPECIFICS IN THE TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. TWO TO THREE SHORT WAVES ARE IMPACTING THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT 24 HRS...ONE LIFTING UP THE I 29 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...A
SECOND PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT...AND A THIRD IMPACTING AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF I 29 BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY. THEREFORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH REDUCED CATEGORIES IN THE MVFR TO IFR
CATEGORIES WILL BE A PROBLEM AT TIMES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE TAF SITES AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1152 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
CURRENT MORNING ACTIVITY IS WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY. ONE EXCEPTION
EXISTS IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES AROUND CHAMBERLAIN WHERE THE COMMA
HEAD OF A LINGERING MCV CONTINUES TO SPIN AND GIVE THAT AREA SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. TO THE SOUTH...STILL A LITTLE
CONCERNED THAT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONVECTION
COULD CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES FROM SIOUX CITY TO STORM LAKE
DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. BUT OTHER THAN THAT...THINGS ARE GETTING
QUIETER. WHAT HAPPENS THIS AFTERNOON IS PROBLEMATIC. THE SHORT
TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS...IN PARTICULAR THE HRRR...IS RATHER USELESS
AT THIS TIME AS IT DOES NOT HAVE A HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION
AT ALL. THE RAP IS NOT MUCH BETTER. THAT SAID...WORRIED THAT WE
MAY RECEIVE MORE AIR MASS TYPE TSRA GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I
29 IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS SOME HINTS POINT TO
THIS. FOR INSTANCE THE ARW WHICH HANDLED THE AIR MASS TSRA THE
BEST YESTERDAY IS SHOWING IT AGAIN...AS WELL AS THE RAP13. WE DO
HAVE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TODAY...AS EVIDENCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
MCVS NEAR CHAMBERLAIN. BUT THIS WAVE IS LIFTING MORE NORTHEASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON RIGHT UP THE I 29 CORRIDOR AS OPPOSED TO THE MORE
WEST TO EAST MOVING WAVE YESTERDAY. SO ONCE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED...IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA COULD RECEIVE AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS BY
MID AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY QUIET DOWN FOR A WHILE
THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE LIFTS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN...AND OUR AREA
SHOWS SOME WEAK SHORT TERM UPPER RIDGING TAKING HOLD. THEN ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE WATER VAPOR
DISPLAYING IT CURRENTLY IN EASTERN CO. THEN FINALLY THE MAIN WAVE
MOVES THROUGH MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY IN OUR EASTERN ZONES.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE A BIT TRICKY. COOLED THEM A BIT AROUND
THE CHAMBERLAIN AREA AS THAT CLOUD COVER MAY STICK AROUND A WHILE.
BUT ELSEWHERE...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE FILTERED...PARTIAL SUNSHINE
STREAMING THROUGH EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ENOUGH TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN A BIT AS IT SPREADS EAST...BUT STILL
LIKELY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. DEEPER MOISTURE WAS FOUND OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...A LITTLE OVER AN INCH AND A HALF OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE OAX SOUNDING. THE OAX SOUNDING ALSO
INDICATED WEAK WINDS ALOFT SO STORM MOTION LIKELY TO BE VERY SLOW
WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE CASE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE CONTINUATION OF THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIKELY TO
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY DISORGANIZED 20 TO 40
POP THROUGH THE DAY. DID BACK OFF ON HIGHS A BIT WITH EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
BY TONIGHT A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ONTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS BRINGING WITH IT STRONGER FORCING AND BETTER SHEAR. THE
OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS A BIT DISORGANIZED SO A LOT OF THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE WORKING OFF OF THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG CAPE
VALUES. THE BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 29 AND LIKELY DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGHER POPS AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE MAIN THREAT AREA WILL BE
NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVED QUITE A BIT OF
RAINFALL LAST NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THE LIKELIHOOD OF FINDING VASTLY USEFUL DATA IN OVERLY CONVECTED
MODELS DIMINISHES FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE ONE GOES INTO SATURDAY...
AND HENCE HAVE DRAWN BACK TOWARD LARGER SCALE CHARACTERISTICS TO
REFINE PRECIPITATION THREAT. LITTLE DOUBT THAT WILL BE WITHIN
HEALTHY TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
WITH AIRMASS FEATURING SOMEWHERE IN THE 1.5 TO 1.7 IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER AHEAD OF BOUNDARY PUSHING TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA BY
MIDDAY. WITH LITTLE TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT AND BROAD LIFT FORCING
INCREASING AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH...WOULD EXPECT A FAIRLY
BROAD EXPANSE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING TOWARD THE END OF THE
MORNING NEAR AND EAST OF THE I29 CORRIDOR...WITH A GRADUAL TENDENCY
TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN TERMS OF THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ON SATURDAY...THERE IS MUCH WORKING AGAINST A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT...INCLUDING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL WAVE...PRECEDED BY VERY LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION. THE OVERALL
DEEPER SHEAR PARAMETERS ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY MARGINAL AT AROUND 25
TO 30 KNOTS. IF ANY LOCATION WAS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER
THREAT...WOULD BE PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA WHERE MID LEVEL WINDS
A BIT STRONGER AND A HINT OF BETTER INSTABILITY POTENTIAL. WHAT
WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT WILL BE FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
GIVEN THE WARM CLOUD DEPTH...AND THREAT FOR TRAINING STORMS.
EXITING TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF SW
MN/NW IA...BUT THEN ALSO A DISTINCT ENDING TO THREAT AS GET SOME
DRYING...ESPECIALLY ALOFT. WEAK RIDGING TAKES OVER...AND WOULD NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO GET A BIT OF FOG INTO THE MIX LATER SAT
NIGHT/SUN MORNING.
ON SUNDAY...SHEAR BECOMES A VASTLY MORE INTERESTING PARAMETER AS
A STRONG JET CORE PUNCHES OUT INTO THE PLAINS TO SOUTH OF CLOSED
UPPER LOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS
RESPOND TO UPPER ENERGY BY STRENGTHENING FLOW FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION. MOISTURE RETURN AT THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH EXPECTED
SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 HEAD OF COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE
DAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO KEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IN
PLAY THROUGH THE DAY...COMBINED WITH MOISTURE POOLING AT LOWER
LEVELS TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO AS HIGH AS
2500-3000 J/KG. SOME SUBTLE TIMING ISSUES WITH WAVE/FRONT...
BUT GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE AGREEMENT...WOULD EXPECT SEVERAL SEVERE
STORMS AND LIKELY THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OF THE
WEEKEND TO COMMENCE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE WELL INTO
SUNDAY EVENING...AND WOULD LIKELY ENCOMPASS ALL TYPES OF SEVERE
STORMS GIVEN THE SHEAR DISTRIBUTION AND ENHANCEMENT NEAR THE
BOUNDARY.
OFTEN UNDERESTIMATED IS THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AS CONVECTION GROWS UPSCALE...AND SEVERAL MODELS MAY
BE HOLDING ON TO A BIT TOO MUCH NORTHWARD EXTENT OF CROSS FRONTAL
FLOW LATER ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VERY WIDESPREAD PRECIP HOLDING ON
TO JUST NORTH OF THE I90 CORRIDOR. WILL KEEP SOME LIKELY POPS
GOING ACROSS THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT TAPER OFF ON MONDAY.
TEMPORARILY AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SPILL SEASONALLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. ALWAYS INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY OF THE
MEAGER WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW COULD AMPLIFY A BIT MORE AND
INTRODUCE A SMALL THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS ALOFT...OTHERWISE LOOKS TO BE THE START OF RETURN
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT BY THURSDAY THAT COULD BRING A COUPLE OF
ROGUE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD
STRONGLY LATE WEEK. AS A RESULT...STILL APPEARS THAT SEASONABLY
WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS WILL SET IN FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
A POTENTIALLY MESSY DAY AHEAD WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS
WELL AS OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS...THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE A
PERIOD LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE ACTIVITY
REMAINS A BIT MORE ISOLATED BUT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL AGAIN
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPOTTY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POTENTIAL THREATS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
307 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WILL GRADUALLY END AROUND SUNSET. HRRR AND
GFS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAKING IT INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY TONIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL
END OF FORCING FROM MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF NM
INTO WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE A LOW 10-20 POP
OUT ACROSS VAL VERDE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TONIGHT. THE LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS HANGS ON ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 INTO SATURDAY.
ONE MORE DAY OF ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BEFORE DRYING TAKES
PLACE.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...MID LEVEL DRYING IS
INDICATED BY MODELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...
WITH FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING JUST TO NORTH. WARMING TREND
WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A MODEST
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TAKES PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BENEATH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 88 76 92 78 93 / 30 10 20 10 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 88 76 93 77 93 / 30 10 20 10 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 89 75 92 77 94 / 30 10 20 10 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 86 73 90 75 90 / 20 10 20 10 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 93 77 96 78 95 / - 10 - - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 87 75 92 76 92 / 20 10 20 10 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 90 75 92 76 94 / 20 10 10 10 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 89 76 92 77 93 / 30 10 20 10 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 90 77 92 78 92 / 40 20 20 10 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 89 77 92 78 94 / 30 10 20 10 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 89 76 93 78 94 / 30 10 20 10 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...76
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1200 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Some local MVFR CIGS across possible across the southern terminals
through early afternoon, then scattering out to VFR. Isolated
thunderstorms may develop west of the terminals late this afternoon.
At this time, any storms that develop are expected to remain west of
the terminals through the evening hours. Another round of MVFR
stratus will spread north across the terminals late tonight into
Saturday morning. Low level southerly flow will continue the next 24
hours, with surface wind gusts to 30 knots.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/
AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings will persist across the terminals through mid to
late morning before scattering out to VFR. Isolated thunderstorms
may develop west of the terminals late this afternoon. At this
time, any storms that develop are expected to remain west of the
terminals through the evening hours. Another round of MVFR
stratus will spread north across the terminals late tonight into
Saturday morning.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Warm and breezy conditions can be expected across West Central Texas
again today. The thermal ridge will strongest west of the area
today, so temperatures this afternoon will be similar to yesterday
with highs topping out in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Morning low
clouds across central and southern sections will scatter out by mid
to late morning, with partly cloudy skies prevailing through
afternoon.
The dryline will set up across far eastern New Mexico into Southwest
Texas today and will mix east into far West Texas this afternoon. A
shortwave trough currently over the Four Corners region will track
east across the Central and Southern High Plains this evening. Lift
from the approaching short wave and temperatures along and ahead of
the dryline climbing into the upper 90s, should be sufficient to
weaken the CAP and allow thunderstorms to develop. Any storms that
develop will have the potential to become severe as the airmass
becomes very unstable this afternoon. Some of this activity may
reach far western counties towards evening. The RUC is the most
aggressive and brings activity into western sections this evening,
while the NAM dissipates convection just west of the area. The Texas
Tech WRF is dry. Feel reasonably confident to maintain isolated
thunder across far western portions of the Concho Valley and
Crockett county late this afternoon and to include slight POPs west
of a Haskell to Iraan line for this evening. A strong southerly low
level jet will develop this evening and may allow storms to hold
together through the late evening hours before weakening. Otherwise,
expect breezy conditions overnight with another round of low clouds
spreading north across much of the area after midnight. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the lower 70s.
JW
LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Heights aloft will begin to build over our area on Saturday, as the
upper trough departs from the Southern Plains. Sunday through at
least the middle of next week, a broad mid-upper level ridge will
envelop most of the southern CONUS. This will be our dominant
weather influence, effectively shutting off rain chances. Will have
breezy conditions with south winds Saturday through Monday with lee
side surface trough in place. Wind speeds will be lower Tuesday-
Thursday with weaker surface pressure gradient. Low-level moisture
will be on a gradually decreasing trend. By Monday, late night/early
morning low cloud development should be restricted to our
southeastern counties. Also expect to have less of a diurnal cumulus
field. The 850 mb thermal ridge will expand a bit farther east into
our area this weekend, and then change little next week. Expect
temperatures for our area to be a few degrees warmer this weekend,
and then be in a steady-state pattern next week. These readings will
be just slightly above normal for the end of June and beginning of
July.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 91 72 93 74 94 / 5 10 10 10 5
San Angelo 91 72 95 73 96 / 10 10 10 10 5
Junction 89 73 92 72 93 / 5 5 10 10 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1145 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TONIGHT IS ON THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND
WHERE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP.
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR AND 500MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A SLOW MOVING
TROUGH OVER WESTERN IOWA DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. A BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH ALONG THE NOSE OF A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL
JET. 0-3KM MUCAPE IS FAIRLY WEAK AT 500-1000 J/KG AND IS FORECAST
TO STAY AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AT 20KTS...NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THIS
CONVECTION TO BECOME UNRULY THIS MORNING.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS MORNING BEHIND THIS BAND...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY INITIATE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. 27.06Z RAP
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE
INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO DEEP WIND
SHEAR. WITH SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER UP AROUND
1.50-2.00INCHES...EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM TODAYS/TONIGHT
CONVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THE MAIN STORY OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD IS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING APPEARS
TO BE THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT WITH BOTH EVENTS LIKELY
INITIATING TO OUR WEST AND THEN COMING THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR SATURDAY...CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL INITIATE ALONG/AHEAD
OF A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT IN
WESTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE
NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SUPPORT ANY CONVECTION TRACKING TO
THE EAST AS PART OF A SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE. DEEP SHEAR
DOES NOT LOOK THAT GREAT...BUT IS FAIRLY DECENT IN THE LOWEST 3KM
WHICH MAY SUPPORT MORE OF A WIND THREAT. THE 27.00Z GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGER 500-300MB QG FORCING WILL BE OUT IN
WESTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA IN THE AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS IT AS IT MOVES
IT INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE 27.00Z GFS DOES APPEAR
TO BE ODD MODEL OUT AS IT IS SLOWER AND MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH QPF
AMOUNTS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS HITTING THE MID/UPPER 70S...WHICH
IS WAY TOO HIGH. OVERALL THINKING IS THAT TIMING WILL BE THE
BIGGEST ISSUE WITH HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE AS
THE LATER IN THE NIGHT THAT THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...THE LESS
LIKELY IT IS TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. DAMAGING WINDS/HEAVY RAIN
LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS TO THE REGION IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
IF YOU DISCOUNT THE 27.00Z GFS...MUCH OF SUNDAY SHOULD END UP DRY
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION AGAIN OCCURRING OUT
TOWARD SIOUX FALLS SD ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE MUCH MORE UNSTABLE THAN WHAT
WE HAVE FOR SATURDAY WHICH...ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
LLJ...SHOULD HELP TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION RUNNING EAST INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY EVENING. THE QUESTION FOR THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE
WITH HOW DEEP THE WIND SHEAR WILL BE AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH.
A STRONG 50-80KT 500MB JET STREAK WILL BE ROUNDING THE TROUGH AND
MOVING INTO MINNESOTA SUNDAY EVENING...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE TRAILING BEHIND THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WHERE THE STORMS DEVELOP. 0-3KM SHEAR STILL LOOKS STRONG AT
25-40KTS...SO WIND MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN HAZARD AGAIN. WHILE
THE STRONGER 0-6KM SHEAR APPEARS TO LAG BEHIND THE
CONVECTION...THE 0-1KM SHEAR/HELICITY ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. SO...CAN NOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME QLCS TYPE TORNADOES SIMILAR TO
WHAT OCCURRED BACK ON THE 16TH.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MONDAY AND SEE WHERE THE COLD FRONT
ENDS UP DURING THE DAY. THE 27.00Z ECMWF IS A TAD SLOWER THAN THE
GFS/GEM AND KEEPS SOME WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE
DAY ALONG THE FRONT. BEYOND THAT...THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS
FAIRLY DECENT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION/WARM AIR TO
DEAL WITH. HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S GOING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
TIMING THE PERIODS OF SHRA/TS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE GOING TO
POSE SOME CHALLENGES. JUICY/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW ANY
BOUNDARY/FORCING MECHANISM TO SPARK PRECIPITATION...AND THE SMALL
FEATURES ARE NOT NECESSARILY CAPTURED WELL BY THE MODELS. EVEN THE
SHORT-TERM/MESO MODELS WILL DISAGREE. ANTICIPATE CAREFUL
INTERROGATION OF SFC DATA/SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS WILL LIKELY BE
THE BEST WAY TO NARROW TIMING...ALTHOUGH THIS MIGHT RESULT IN
MINIMAL LEAD TIME. WILL TRY TO NARROW POTENTIAL SHRA/TS PERIODS DOWN
WITH VCTS/VCSH GROUPS IN THE LATER PERIODS...HIGHLIGHTING MORE
LIKELY PERIODS IN THE NEAR TERM. ANTICIPATE IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOST
THUNDERSTORMS.
MEANWHILE...NAM/GFS ADAMANT ABOUT BRINGING IN IFR/MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS OVERNIGHT...WITH NEAR SFC INVERSION TRAPPING THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. ALL THIS DESPITE RELATIVELY STIFF SFC WINDS NEAR 10 KTS.
WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT OVERLY HIGH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2014
THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME MAINLY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
TODAY WITH ANY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR FLASH
FLOODING MAY COME IN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A NUMBER OF SYSTEMS
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION INTO AN AIR MASS THAT IS LOADED WITH
MOISTURE. WITH RIVERS ALREADY ELEVATED DUE TO THE HEAVY
RAIN...SOME ADDITIONAL RISES MAY OCCUR. THE MISSISSIPPI WILL
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO RUN OFF UPSTREAM FROM
LAST WEEKS RAINFALL.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....HALBACH