Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/26/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK
FOLLOWED BY HOTTER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME MOISTURE
INCREASE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY A FEW THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS SE AZ. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z
RANGED FROM THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S F NORTH TO WEST OF TUCSON...TO
THE LOWER 50S F ACROSS FAR SERN SECTIONS. THESE TEMPS WERE NEARLY
UNCHANGED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO...BUT WERE ABOUT
10-20 DEGS F HIGHER FROM TUCSON SOUTHWARD VERSUS THIS TIME MON.
SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO 24 HOURS AGO.
24/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS NEAR 0.30 INCH...A
MUCH DRIER PROFILE VERSUS THIS TIME MON. 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGE PLOT
YIELDED MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE SURFACE-600 MB LAYER...AND ABOUT 2-5
DEGS C OF WARMING ABOVE 600 MB. 24/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 28N/129W...
AND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED SEWD INTO SRN CHIHUAHUA. LIGHT TO MODERATE
WLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED OVER SE AZ.
AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING ACROSS
FAR SERN SECTIONS LATER TODAY...GIVEN THE ONGOING ENHANCED DEWPOINTS
AS NOTED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED DIAGNOSTICS. 24/12Z NAM/GFS AND
24/13Z RUC HRRR DEPICT PRECIP ECHOES AND QPF/S TO BE EAST TO SOUTH
OF THIS FORECAST AREA. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...WITH SOME CIRRIFORM CLOUDS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS ENOUGH LOWER AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
SOME CUMULOFORM CLOUDS TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SE OF TUCSON.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INTO WED AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THUS...WED SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY...WITH SOME CIRRIFORM CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...AND
SOME CUMULOFORM CLOUDS WED AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THUR. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE
NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES FRI. THE MAIN IMPACT ON SE AZ FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SOME BREEZINESS THUR-FRI MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A VERY DRY REGIME WILL THEN CONTINUE SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY-SAT WILL BE AT NORMAL VALUES OR AVERAGE JUST A FEW
DEGS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THERE ARE NO CHANGES FORTHCOMING TO THE INHERITED OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOR TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER
DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/18Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL PROVIDE WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS ENOUGH
LOWER AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SE OF KTUS...AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
KDUG TERMINAL...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 10-15K FT AGL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WILL BE SW-NW AT 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS MOSTLY EAST OF TUCSON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW LOCALES EAST OF TUCSON AND PARTICULARLY IN THE SAFFORD VALLEY
MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
WILL OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DECENT HIGH INITIALLY CONSOLIDATING OVERHEAD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE LARGER SCALE FLOW AT THAT POINT WILL STILL
NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR DIRECTLY ASSISTING THE PROCESS OF IMPORTING
DEEP MOISTURE...BUT THE MUCH LIGHTER AND MORE AMBIGUOUS FLOW UNDER
THE HIGH WILL TEND TO ALLOW GREATER INFLUENCE FROM OUTFLOW ACTIVITY
IMMEDIATELY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE NUMBER OF SCENARIOS
ALLOWING FOR DEEP SURGE ACTIVITY INCREASE AT THAT POINT AND
ULTIMATELY WE SHOULD SEE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS AS MONSOON INFLUENCES
SPREAD INTO OUR PART OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK (ESPECIALLY AFTER MONDAY
OR TUESDAY). YOU PLAY THE PERCENTAGES IN THE EXTENDED AND WE`RE
STARTING TO SEE THE SCENARIOS THAT ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
PICTURE INCREASING...INCLUDING A MARKED INCREASE IN TROPICAL
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF BAJA AND PRESSURE DIFFERENTIALS ENHANCED BY
THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS. FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1124 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY...BUT
WITH A LOT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ALSO PRESENT. WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A WEAK
DENVER CYCLONE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC
DIAGNOSTICS FROM THE RAP MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON
BY HOLDING THE CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. BY EVENING THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL DIMINISH WHICH MAY ALLOW SHOWERS TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ARE GOING TO BE CAPABLE OF
SEVERE HAIL DUE TO THE 1000-1500 JOULES OF CAPE THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE PRESENT. STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL HAS NORTHEAST
COLORADO UNDER SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...SO THE FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
INTERESTING BUT CHALLENGING SITUATION FOR THE PERIOD REGARDING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FIRST...MANY OF THE IMPORTANT PARAMETERS ARE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AS DOES
THE INSTABILITY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE UP FROM 24 HOURS
AGO ACCORDING TO GPS SENSORS. WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE IS PREDICTED
TO CONTINUE. THIS IS ALL WELL AND GOOD AND WOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY BY THEMSELVES. HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS GONE
ON ALMOST THE ENTIRE NIGHT ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WHICH WILL KEEP
THINGS COOL OUT THERE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME
STRATUS FLOATING ABOUT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS COULD KEEP HEATING SOMEWHAT AT BAY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING. INDEED MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF CIN STILL RUNNING AROUND DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
IN AND IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY A BIT THE MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY
CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME MODERATE BUT RATHER DEEP QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
SUBSIDENCE SPREADING OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING
TIME. SOME WEAKENING OF THIS DOWNWARD MOTION AND A SIGN CHANGE TO
WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS PREDICTED AFTER 00Z BY SOME OF THE
MODELS. SUBSIDENCE LIKE THIS HAS BEEN KNOWN TO COMPLETELY SHUT
DOWN CONVECTION IN PAST CASES. BUT WITH THE POSSIBLE SIGN CHANGE
EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY THINGS MAY SIMPLY BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT AND
LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVENING.
SO THINGS ARE NOT TERRIBLY CUT AND DRIED. ONE THING IS RATHER
CERTAIN...IF CONVECTION CAN GET GOING THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WITH JUST ABOUT ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS. HEAVY RAINS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT CAN GET GOING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
ON WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS WILL START TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
URBAN CORRIDOR. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE STATE WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW MOVING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. AREAS IN AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
STILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS BUT THEY WILL BE HIGH BASED
AND PRODUCE PRIMARILY GUSTY WINDS. FURTHER EAST... DRY LINE WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AND THE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND SHIFTS THE MOISTURE AXIS EAST OF INTERSTATE 25. EAST
OF THE LINE...HIGH PW VALUES WILL STILL EXIST WITH CAPE VALUES
OVER 2000 J/KG. A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CWFA. BEST CHC OF STORMS WL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WITH
LITTLE IF ANY TSTM ACTIVITY IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. ON SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRUSH ACROSS
COLORADO BRING WITH IT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY AND WARMER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO MOVE BACK INTO
THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 90.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
WILL HAVE VCTS AFTER 22Z AND THEN TEMPO -TSRA AFTER ABOUT 01Z.
AFTER THE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT...THE NAM HAS WINDS
REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH...INDICATIVE OF AT LEAST MODEST
DRAINAGE WINDS. WITHOUT ANY SURGE OF NORTHERLIES...DO NOT THINK WE
WILL SEE ANY LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING AN INCH AT BOULDER AT
4 AM ANY CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO GET ROLLING TODAY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. PARTS OF MORGAN AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES HAD QUITE A BIT OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT SO SOILS
THERE MAY BE GETTING CLOSE TO SATURATION WITH FURTHER RAINS HAVING
THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. MODEST STORM MOTION FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH A LOW THREAT DOES EXIST.
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL PRODUCE JUST SOME
HIGH BASED SHOWER AND/OR TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. NO
FLOODING CONCERNS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...ET/COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
639 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE OUR HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN
TO VERY SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION BY TONIGHT. THIS FRONT COULD
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION LATER TODAY. TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DRAG THROUGH THE REGION...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING
ALONG IT...WHICH WILL PRODUCE BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS
MUCH OF HERKIMER COUNTY. STILL...NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
THE LATEST RUC AND MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY.
SO WE WILL CALL THESE SCATTERED THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE SHOWERS LOOK TO EXIT AND THERE MIGHT BE A LULL BEFORE MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS FORM LATER TODAY.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION REMAINED DRY AND MILD AS A
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S
AT THIS HOUR...WITH ONLY A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.
SO FOR THIS UPDATE...CHANGED SOME OF THE POP/WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND OF COURSE TWEAKED THE HOURLY GRIDS.
TODAY...SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH A GOOD DEAL OF HIGH CLOUDS...IN
THE CAPITAL REGION...LESS SO FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. IT WILL BE
MOSTLY TO TOTALLY CLOUDY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO
PERHAPS EVEN 30 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST...WITH SOME
LOCALITIES POSSIBLY REACHING THE UPPER 80S. FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST...WITH THICKER CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
WARM...CLOSER TO 80.
DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CREEP THROUGH THE 50S...REACHING 60 OR HIGHER
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ALL OF THE FACTORS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT
30KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORM THAT DO DEVELOP COULD END UP
PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS (PROBABLY SUBSEVERE) BUT A ROGUE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH A BOWING SEGMENT. PWATS RAMP TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES...SO ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD HEAVY RAINFALL. WE
CONTINUE TO USE ENHANCED WORDING IN OUR GRIDS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST...WE ONLY GAVE SLIGHT
POPS (ACTUALLY NONE SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY AS RIDGING ALOFT WILL LIKELY
PREVENT ANY UPWARD MOTION AND RESULTANT SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SINCE THE COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE OUR WEST TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...MIGHT ACTUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT..ALTHOUGH REMNANTS OF THOSE STORMS COULD CERTAINLY MOVE
FURTHER EAST.
DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S EVERYWHERE MAKING IT A MUGGY
NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 60S...CLOSER TO 70 IN THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MORE ORGANIZED UPPER DYNAMICS...A
LITTLE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND CORE...MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN ORGANIZED BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL LARGELY
BE BASED AT THE SURFACE AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL DO NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS...BUT MAYBE MORE OF A VERY HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL BASED ON THE VERY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES AROUND TWO
INCHES REGION WIDE.
GUIDANCE WAS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIES
RAINFALL WILL TAKE PLACE. THE REALLY MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO
POTENTIALLY RECEIVE AN INCH OR BETTER OF RAINFALL.
INITIALLY...NORTHERN AREAS WILL GET HIT EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.
WE ARE STILL NOT READY TO ISSUE ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES YET...AS THE
BULK OF THE RAIN WILL NOT FALL UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY AND THE
CONFIDENCE OF FLASH FLOODING IS BELOW 50 PERCENT DUE TO SOMEWHAT DRY
CONDITIONS GOING INTO THIS EVENT. MORE ABOUT HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES CAN
BE FOUND IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SECTION.
THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS OF LINGERING UPPER ENERGY AND A LOW
LEVEL FEATURE FOR ONE LAST ROUND OF LOW LEVEL FORCING AS THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS EAST AND SOUTH. SO...LINGERING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING IN MOST
PLACES...BUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON HOW CLOUDS IT
REMAINS. THE 00Z NAM MOS NUMBERS WERE COOLER BASED ON MORE CLOUDS
WHILE THE MAV MOS NUMBERS INDICATED PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.
FOR NOW...WENT WITH THE MAV/MET MIX BUT LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER
MET NUMBERS. THIS WOULD GIVE HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 AROUND THE CAPITAL
REGION...LOWER TO MID 80S FURTHER SOUTH...70S WELL NORTH AND WEST.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH HOLDING WELL INTO THE 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS GIVING TO A FEW LATE TIME SUNNY BREAKS AND ONLY
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTHWEST TO
LOWER 80S SOUTH OF ALBANY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT EXITS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
THE ENTIRE REGION TO ENJOY SOME TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS TO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. GETTING
WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS POINT FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. AT KALB HAVE INDICATED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 23Z TUESDAY...AND AFTER 21Z AT KGFL. THERE IS ALSO A
TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR SHOWERS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT KGFL DUE TO
RADAR SHOWING A BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AS OF 630 AM. AT KPOU/KPSF...HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY PCPN THROUGH 12
WEDNESDAY.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE PERIOD OF PSSIBLE MVFR AT KGFL
TO START THE TAF PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MODELS AND STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING LOWERING CIGS LATE TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC PERSISTS AND BRINGS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. AFTER AROUND 07Z TONIGHT HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS AT ALL
THE TAF SITES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL THE TAF SITES ON TODAY TO 10 TO
15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 16 TO 22 KTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO
10 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 15 KTS AT KALB.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY TODAY OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE.
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MORE POSSIBLE.
A GUSTY SOUTH WIND WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH.
A WET AND UNSETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
RH VALUES SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 60 TO
80 PERCENT RANGE. ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH
OR MORE OF RAINFALL.
A DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY TODAY. SOME OF THESE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL RESULTING WITH SOME PONDING OF WATER. ONLY AN OUTSIDE OF
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW...AND ONE...IF NOT
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE...TO LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SCATTERED
EVERYWHERE ELSE. BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY WITH POTENTIAL FOR PONDING OF WATER.
WE ARE FORECASTING AN AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO
PRODUCE SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON SOME RIVERS AND
STREAMS. A COUPLE SPOTS LIKE DELTA DAM AND UTICA COULD REACH ACTION
STAGE.
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL DO HAVE THE REMOTE
POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING BUT RIGHT NOW...THE THREAT
OF THAT WAS LOWER THAN 50 PERCENT SO NO FLASH FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
WERE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT. KEEP IN MIND ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD
PRODUCE LOCAL AMOUNTS WELL OVER 2 INCHES.
STAY TUNED.
DRIER WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE OUR HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN
TO VERY SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION BY TONIGHT. THIS FRONT COULD
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION LATER TODAY. TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DRAG THROUGH THE REGION...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING
ALONG IT...WHICH WILL PRODUCE BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS
MUCH OF HERKIMER COUNTY. STILL...NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
THE LATEST RUC AND MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY.
SO WE WILL CALL THESE SCATTERED THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE SHOWERS LOOK TO EXIT AND THERE MIGHT BE A LULL BEFORE MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS FORM LATER TODAY.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION REMAINED DRY AND MILD AS A
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S
AT THIS HOUR...WITH ONLY A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.
SO FOR THIS UPDATE...CHANGED SOME OF THE POP/WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND OF COURSE TWEAKED THE HOURLY GRIDS.
TODAY...SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH A GOOD DEAL OF HIGH CLOUDS...IN
THE CAPITAL REGION...LESS SO FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. IT WILL BE
MOSTLY TO TOTALLY CLOUDY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO
PERHAPS EVEN 30 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST...WITH SOME
LOCALITIES POSSIBLY REACHING THE UPPER 80S. FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST...WITH THICKER CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
WARM...CLOSER TO 80.
DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CREEP THROUGH THE 50S...REACHING 60 OR HIGHER
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ALL OF THE FACTORS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT
30KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORM THAT DO DEVELOP COULD END UP
PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS (PROBABLY SUBSEVERE) BUT A ROGUE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH A BOWING SEGMENT. PWATS RAMP TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES...SO ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD HEAVY RAINFALL. WE
CONTINUE TO USE ENHANCED WORDING IN OUR GRIDS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST...WE ONLY GAVE SLIGHT
POPS (ACTUALLY NONE SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY AS RIDGING ALOFT WILL LIKELY
PREVENT ANY UPWARD MOTION AND RESULTANT SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SINCE THE COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE OUR WEST TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...MIGHT ACTUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT..ALTHOUGH REMNANTS OF THOSE STORMS COULD CERTAINLY MOVE
FURTHER EAST.
DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S EVERYWHERE MAKING IT A MUGGY
NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 60S...CLOSER TO 70 IN THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MORE ORGANIZED UPPER DYNAMICS...A
LITTLE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND CORE...MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN ORGANIZED BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL LARGELY
BE BASED AT THE SURFACE AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL DO NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS...BUT MAYBE MORE OF A VERY HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL BASED ON THE VERY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES AROUND TWO
INCHES REGION WIDE.
GUIDANCE WAS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIES
RAINFALL WILL TAKE PLACE. THE REALLY MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO
POTENTIALLY RECEIVE AN INCH OR BETTER OF RAINFALL.
INITIALLY...NORTHERN AREAS WILL GET HIT EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.
WE ARE STILL NOT READY TO ISSUE ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES YET...AS THE
BULK OF THE RAIN WILL NOT FALL UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY AND THE
CONFIDENCE OF FLASH FLOODING IS BELOW 50 PERCENT DUE TO SOMEWHAT DRY
CONDITIONS GOING INTO THIS EVENT. MORE ABOUT HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES CAN
BE FOUND IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SECTION.
THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS OF LINGERING UPPER ENERGY AND A LOW
LEVEL FEATURE FOR ONE LAST ROUND OF LOW LEVEL FORCING AS THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS EAST AND SOUTH. SO...LINGERING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING IN MOST
PLACES...BUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON HOW CLOUDS IT
REMAINS. THE 00Z NAM MOS NUMBERS WERE COOLER BASED ON MORE CLOUDS
WHILE THE MAV MOS NUMBERS INDICATED PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.
FOR NOW...WENT WITH THE MAV/MET MIX BUT LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER
MET NUMBERS. THIS WOULD GIVE HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 AROUND THE CAPITAL
REGION...LOWER TO MID 80S FURTHER SOUTH...70S WELL NORTH AND WEST.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH HOLDING WELL INTO THE 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS GIVING TO A FEW LATE TIME SUNNY BREAKS AND ONLY
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTHWEST TO
LOWER 80S SOUTH OF ALBANY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT EXITS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
THE ENTIRE REGION TO ENJOY SOME TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS TO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. GETTING
WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS POINT FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST
OF THE SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
06Z WEDNESDAY. AT KALB HAVE INDICATED VCSH IN THE FORECAST AFTER 23Z
TUESDAY...AND AFTER 21Z AT KGFL. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VCSH HAS ALSO
BEEN FORECAST FOR KGFL TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO A BATCH OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM LAKE ONTARIO. AT KPOU/KPSF...
HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY THREAT OF PCPN.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW OCCURRING AT ALL THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT...AND WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION...THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT AND
HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY.
SOUTH WINDS AT KGFL/KPSF/KPOU OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 8 KTS OR
LESS...BUT AT KALB THE SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 KTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL THE TAF SITES ON
TUESDAY TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 16 TO 22 KTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 15 KTS
AT KALB.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY TODAY OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE.
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MORE POSSIBLE.
A GUSTY SOUTH WIND WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH.
A WET AND UNSETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
RH VALUES SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 60 TO
80 PERCENT RANGE. ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH
OR MORE OF RAINFALL.
A DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY TODAY. SOME OF THESE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL RESULTING WITH SOME PONDING OF WATER. ONLY AN OUTSIDE OF
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW...AND ONE...IF NOT
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE...TO LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SCATTERED
EVERYWHERE ELSE. BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY WITH POTENTIAL FOR PONDING OF WATER.
WE ARE FORECASTING AN AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO
PRODUCE SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON SOME RIVERS AND
STREAMS. A COUPLE SPOTS LIKE DELTA DAM AND UTICA COULD REACH ACTION
STAGE.
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL DO HAVE THE REMOTE
POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING BUT RIGHT NOW...THE THREAT
OF THAT WAS LOWER THAN 50 PERCENT SO NO FLASH FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
WERE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT. KEEP IN MIND ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD
PRODUCE LOCAL AMOUNTS WELL OVER 2 INCHES.
STAY TUNED.
DRIER WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE OUR HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN
TO VERY SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION BY TONIGHT. THIS FRONT COULD
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION LATER TODAY. TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DRAG THROUGH THE REGION...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING
ALONG IT...WHICH WILL PRODUCE BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE WORKED INTO EXTREME
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES. SO FAR NO CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND THE LATEST RUC AND MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED
LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. SO WE WILL CALL THESE SCATTERED THROUGH
EARLY MORNING.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION REMAINED DRY AND MILD AS A
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S
AT THIS HOUR...WITH ONLY A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.
THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL IF AT ALL. THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST...BUT THERE WERE MORE SHOWERS UPSTREAM IN LEWIS COUNTY.
ASIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST CORNER...ALL OTHER AREAS OF THE FORECAST
REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. A SOUTH WIND WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 15 MPH.
THERE WILL A SLOW INCREASE IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
LATER TODAY...SUNSHINE WILL BE HAPPENING FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
TO THE SOUTHEAST DESPITE THESE INCREASING CLOUDS. A SOUTH WIND WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO PERHAPS EVEN 30
MPH AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST...WITH SOME LOCALITIES EVEN
REACHING THE UPPER 80S. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...WITH THICKER
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM...CLOSER TO 80.
DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CREEP THROUGH THE 50S...REACHING 60 OR HIGHER
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ALL OF THE FACTORS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT
30KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORM THAT DO DEVELOP COULD END UP
PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS (PROBABLY SUBSEVERE) BUT A ROGUE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH A BOWING SEGMENT. PWATS RAMP TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES...SO ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD HEAVY RAINFALL. WE
CONTINUE TO USE ENHANCED WORDING IN OUR GRIDS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST...WE ONLY GAVE SLIGHT
POPS (ACTUALLY NONE SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY AS RIDGING ALOFT WILL LIKELY
PREVENT ANY UPWARD MOTION AND RESULTANT SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SINCE THE COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE OUR WEST TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...MIGHT ACTUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT..ALTHOUGH REMNANTS OF THOSE STORMS COULD CERTAINLY MOVE
FURTHER EAST.
DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S EVERYWHERE MAKING IT MUGGY NIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 60S...CLOSER TO 70 IN THE IMMEDIATE
CAPITAL REGION.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MORE ORGANIZED UPPER DYNAMICS...A
LITTLE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND CORE...MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN ORGANIZED BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL LARGELY
BE BASED AT THE SURFACE AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL DO NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS...BUT MAYBE MORE OF A VERY HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL BASED ON THE VERY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES AROUND TWO
INCHES REGION WIDE.
GUIDANCE HAS BETTER AGREEMENT WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIES RAINFALL
WILL TAKE PLACE. REALLY MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY
RECEIVE AN INCH OR BETTER OF RAINFALL. INITIALLY...NORTHERN AREAS
WILL GET HIT EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH
AND EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
WE ARE STILL NOT READY TO ISSUE ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES YET...AS THE
BULK OF THE RAIN WILL NOT FALL UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY AND THE
CONFIDENCE OF FLASH FLOODING IS BELOW 50 PERCENT DUE TO SOMEWHAT DRY
CONDITIONS GOING INTO THIS EVENT. MORE ABOUT HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES CAN
BE FOUND IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SECTION.
THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS OF LINGERING UPPER ENERGY AND A LOW
LEVEL FEATURE FOR ONE LAST ROUND OF LOW LEVEL FORCING AS THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS EAST AND SOUTH. SO...LINGERING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING IN MOST
PLACES...BUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON HOW CLOUDS IT
REMAINS. THE 00Z NAM MOS NUMBERS WERE COOLER BASED ON MORE CLOUDS
WHILE THE MAV MOS NUMBERS INDICATED PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.
FOR NOW...WENT WITH THE MAV/MET MIX BUT LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER
MET NUMBERS. THIS WOULD GIVE HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 AROUND THE CAPITAL
REGION...LOWER TO MID 80S FURTHER SOUTH...70S WELL NORTH AND WEST.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH HOLDING WELL INTO THE 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND ONLY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S ALBANY SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT EXITS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
THE ENTIRE REGION TO ENJOY SOME TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS TO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. GETTING
WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS POINT FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST
OF THE SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
06Z WEDNESDAY. AT KALB HAVE INDICATED VCSH IN THE FORECAST AFTER 23Z
TUESDAY...AND AFTER 21Z AT KGFL. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VCSH HAS ALSO
BEEN FORECAST FOR KGFL TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO A BATCH OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM LAKE ONTARIO. AT KPOU/KPSF...
HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY THREAT OF PCPN.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW OCCURRING AT ALL THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT...AND WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION...THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT AND
HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY.
SOUTH WINDS AT KGFL/KPSF/KPOU OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 8 KTS OR
LESS...BUT AT KALB THE SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 KTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL THE TAF SITES ON
TUESDAY TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 16 TO 22 KTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 15 KTS
AT KALB.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY TODAY OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE.
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MORE POSSIBLE.
A GUSTY SOUTH WIND WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH.
A WET AND UNSETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
RH VALUES SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 60 TO
80 PERCENT RANGE. ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH
OR MORE OF RAINFALL.
A DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY TODAY. SOME OF THESE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL RESULTING WITH SOME PONDING OF WATER. ONLY AN OUTSIDE OF
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW...AND ONE...IF NOT
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE...TO LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SCATTERED
EVERYWHERE ELSE. BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY WITH POTENTIAL FOR PONDING OF WATER.
WE ARE FORECASTING AN AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO
PRODUCE SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON SOME RIVERS AND
STREAMS. A COUPLE SPOTS LIKE DELTA DAM AND UTICA COULD REACH ACTION
STAGE.
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL DO HAVE THE REMOTE
POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING BUT RIGHT NOW...THE THREAT
OF THAT WAS LOWER THAN 50 PERCENT SO NO FLASH FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
WERE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT. KEEP IN MIND ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD
PRODUCE LOCAL AMOUNTS WELL OVER 2 INCHES.
STAY TUNED.
DRIER WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
556 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG IT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FRIDAY AND REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL ARRIVE NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AS WELL AS RUC AND COSPA RUNS (18Z
GFS AND WRF TOO), WE HAVE SCALED BACK POPS AS WE HAVE REMAINED
RELATIVELY MORE STABLE OVER OUR CWA AND ONGOING DEEP FLOW
TRAJECTORY OF ONGOING CONVECTION WOULD BE BY-PASSING MOST OF OUR
CWA THIS EVENING. WE`LL SEE WHERE THE TRENDS GO FROM THERE FOR THE
NEXT UPDATE. OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO SMOOTH CURRENT TEMP
DIFFERENCES AND LOWER SKY NEAR TERM SKY COVER.
FOR TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE WHILE A SFC
TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE NW.
THE RESULTING PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT SLY FLOW OVER THE
AREA. THIS PLUS SW FLOW ABOVE THE SFC WILL BRING INCREASING MOIST
AIR IN TO THE REGION. CLOUDINESS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT
INCLUDING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG AS WELL. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS NO CLEAR-CUT FORCING FOR UVV...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A CHC OR
SLGT CHC POP FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS N/W OF
PHL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE SFC TROF AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO PA ON WED
AND A SHRTWV TROF ALOFT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE W AND SW. THE
SHRTWV WILL ENHANCE UVV...ALTHO THE BEST FORCING SEEMS TO BE TO OUR
N AND NW. EVEN SO THERE WILL BE A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH
PWS FCST TO BE OVER 2 INCHES. IN SPITE OF INCREASING CLOUDS...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEATING TO PRODUCE INSTBY FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY WITH POPS INCREASING WEST TO EAST. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND SOME
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS WILL BE MOVING SW TO
NE AND IF TRAINING OCCURS THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
HOWEVER ATTM WE BELIEVE THE FLOODING THREAT IS NOT WIDESPREAD OR
ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A FF WATCH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE SITN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK MEAN H5 TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE TROUGH GETS KICKED TO THE EAST SATURDAY ALLOWING H5 RIDGING TO
TAKE PLACE ACROSS OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGING PERSISTS
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SIGNS BEYOND THE LONG
TERM THAT THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES ALOFT TO
COME CLOSE TO OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FROM THU INTO SAT...THEN READINGS
WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S MON AND APPROACH 90 (OR EXCEED IN THE METRO
AREAS) NEXT TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHC WILL BE TIED TO TRANSIENT SHORT WAVES AND WEAK
FRONTS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS POOR
AT BEST BY THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...SO THE WPC POPS WERE USED IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE BEST CHC FOR PCPN ARE SAT/SUN ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WRN AREAS AND AGAIN NEXT TUE...MOSTLY WRN AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDS ARE IN PLACE AT ALL OUR TAF SITES AND SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. SMWHT GUST SLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN SLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KT
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE SLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...AND
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
SOME IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE.
CONDS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURG WED MORNING AND RETURN TO VFR BY
MIDDAY. SLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDDAY. SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP DURG THE AFTN AND THESE WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY MVFR OR IFR CONDS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND LOW CIGS.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
THU THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR WITH ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
FAIRLY QUIET CONDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NJ/DE COASTAL
WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...OR AT LEAST NO
SCA FLAGS ARE EXPECTED ATTM. SLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING
SOME TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW
BUT CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS WED AFTN AND
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL
TEND TO HAVE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL AS THE USUAL LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS CAN
BE EXPECTED AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT REMAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCAL FLOODING AS THE PW
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES.
AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES, THE FLOW IS GENERALLY PARALLEL TO IT WHICH
INTRODUCES THE RISK FOR TRAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS, AND ANY TRAINING OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL ENHANCE
THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT. THE ARRIVAL OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
FRONT MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ALLOW FOR MORE
FOCUSED DOWNPOURS. THIS LOOKS TO INITIALLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY, THEN IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING
THE EVENING. THE 1-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH VALUES AT OR LESS THAN 2.00
INCHES. THESE SIMILAR AREAS ON THE 3-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAVE
VALUES BETWEEN ABOUT 2.00 AND 2.50 INCHES. IT IS THESE LOCATIONS AND
THE MORE URBANIZED SPOTS THAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT BEING ISSUED ATTM DUE TO SOME QUESTION ON
HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS /AREAL COVERAGE/ AND WHERE IF BECOMES FOCUSED
THE LONGEST. A MENTION HOWEVER REMAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY THE REST
OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...AMC/O`HARA
MARINE...AMC/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
757 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.UPDATE...
REMNANTS OF THIS EVENINGS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS MOVED TO THE WEST AND WILL BE EXITING THE NAPLES AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THE HRRR HAS BEEN FAIRLY CLOSE, BUT FAILED
TO CAPTURE THE WESTERN CONVECTIVE AREA IN THE 20Z RUN. BUT IT DOES
SHOW THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF AND HAS THEM ALL BUT GONE
BY 2Z. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT WEATHER AND
TO ALLOW FOR MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WITH THE REMAINING CELLS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE IN SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARD THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE INTERIOR.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SLIGHTLY WEAKER H7 INHIBITION HAS ALLOWED FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP EARLY THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE HAS
MOVED WEST OF METROPOLITAN AREAS...SO WITH MEAN STORM MOTION SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST...MOST LIKELY EASTERN URBAN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
OVER THE INTERIOR...MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL AIDE IN COOLING
OF DOWNDRAFTS AND SUPPORT QUITE GUSTY WINDS IN ANY OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS RESIDED OVER THE REGION THE LAST
FEW DAYS WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IT
DOES...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN DOWN THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. THIS MAY PROVIDE FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING /SEA BREEZE INDUCED/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE FOCUS WILL REMAIN
OVER INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
AVIATION...
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WELL ESTABLISHED AS OF 18Z AND
MAKING STEADY PROGRESS INLAND. WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IS STILL PINNED
CLOSE TO THE COAST BUT SHOULD ALSO MAKE SOME INLAND PROGRESS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CONVERGENCE OF SEA BREEZES AND BACKGROUND
N-NE FLOW WILL MAXIMIZE TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING OVER THE INTERIOR TO WESTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. THUS
WILL CARRY VCTS AT KAPF WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TERMINAL BEING
DIRECTLY AFFECTED AFTER 20Z. EAST COAST TERMINALS LOOK TO BE CLEAR
OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION TODAY, THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED VCTS FROM
THESE LOCATIONS. ONLY IMPACT OF CONVECTION ON EAST COAST SITES IS
MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS PERHAPS PRODUCING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT LAND BREEZE OVERNIGHT WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS AGAIN ON THURSDAY. /MOLLEDA
MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WITH FAIRLY CALM SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 90 75 90 / 0 40 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 91 78 90 / 10 30 10 30
MIAMI 77 91 78 90 / 20 30 10 30
NAPLES 76 91 76 90 / 70 40 20 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
942 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
.UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHEAST NEVADA AND NORTHERN UTAH
CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER THIS EVENING SO I HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO BEFORE 11
PM. EXPECT ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO KEEP CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
AND THUNDER OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. VP
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 145 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO FIRE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. EAST IDAHO ALREADY
UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE AT OR ABOVE 500 ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE REGION ALONG WITH NEGATIVE LIFTEDS. 12Z NAM IN LINE WITH
LATEST HRRR IN INITIAL PUSH OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOLLOWED BY
A BREAK UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE AXIS REACHES WESTERN IDAHO.
A FEW ISOLATED CELLS STILL POSSIBLE SOUTHERN/EASTERN HIGHLANDS BUT
MUCH OF REST OF FORECAST AREA REMAINS GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HAVE PUSHED POPS UP IN THE WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT INSTABILITY NOT IMPRESSIVE SO LEFT THUNDER
OUT OF FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY STRENGTHENS AND
LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS BEHIND FRONT ENOUGH TO WARRANT LAKE WIND ADVISORY
STARTING EARLY IN THE DAY. MODELS AGREE ON WET DAY FOR THURSDAY AS
MAIN SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES THROUGH PACNW DURING THE DAY AND LIFT
ACROSS IDAHO OVERNIGHT. REMNANTS OF SHORTWAVE LINGER INTO FRIDAY
BUT MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE. THUS EXPECT WEAK CONVECTION TO BE
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES IN REGIONS OF
BEST INSTABILITY CLOSEST TO SHORTWAVE AXIS. MORE ZONAL FLOW SHOULD
FAVOR BREEZIER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWING
CONFIDENT LAKE WIND CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. EAST IDAHO WEAKLY
CYCLONIC IN BASE OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY BUT FLOW ALOFT MUCH DRIER. HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY TO BETTER FIT GUIDANCE BLEND AND CLEARER/DRIER TREND.
UPPER RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR WARMER AND CONTINUED DRY FORECAST. RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS EAST IDAHO WEDNESDAY...A TREND SHARED BY BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR
NOW PENDING CONTINUED CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MED RANGE MODELS AND
UPWARD TREND IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. DMH
AVIATION...MORNING GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED APPROACH OF FRONT BY ABOUT 4
HOURS...SO HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF MORNING -TSRA AT KSUN.
OTHERWISE...-TSRA STILL EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE OTHER
AIRDROMES WITH GOOD CAPE AND LIFTED INDICES STAYING FROM KPIH
EASTWARD. THUS DONT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
-TSRA ACTIVITY AT KBYI AND KSUN PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN 26/09Z AND 26/12Z. -TSRA MAY START AT KPIH AND ESPECIALLY
KIDA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT HAVE MAXED OUT LINES FOR THOSE
TAFS. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT KBYI DURING THE MORNING...BUT
LITTLE CROSSWIND COMPONENT. MESSICK
FIRE WEATHER...MODERATELY STRONG FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS THU WITH STRONG WIND BEHIND IT WITH ENOUGH UNSTABLE
AIR TO GENERATE A GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOT
ONLY FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT ALSO IN THE MORNING. ENOUGH MOISTURE
ARRIVING WITH THE FRONT THAT HAINES INDEX BOTTOMS OUT AT 2 OR 3 AND
STAYS THERE FOR THU AND FRI. WITH THE SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASED MOISTURE...DONT EXPECT HUMIDITY TO BE A FACTOR DURING
THAT TIME EITHER. BY THE WEEKEND...THE STORM TRACK WILL SHIFT
FARTHER NORTH AND A WARMING AND DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MESSICK
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MDT THURSDAY IDZ021.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
855 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
839 PM CDT
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ONCE THE MID-LVL VORTICITY MAXIMA PUSHED
EAST THE INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY DIMINISHED.
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN ALSO STRUGGLED TO PUSH EAST AS THEY WERE
ENCOUNTERING A COOLER MARINE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH HELPED TO KEEP
ALL ACTIVITY GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A HARVARD TO LANSING
LINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO COOL INTO THE LOW 60S TO UPR
50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE...WHILE INLAND AREAS REMAIN MILD
IN THE LOW/MID 70S. SOME MARINE FOG HAS BEEN ABLE TO BLEED INLAND
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WITH A BUMP IN THE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN THE FOG QUICKLY LIFTED BRIEFLY INTO A LOW
STRATUS DECK. ALTHOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE ONLY TEMPORARY...AS ONCE
WINDS DIMINISH BACK DOWN OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG TO DENSE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP.
BEACHLER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
336 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WELL AS WARMING TREND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM ARE WITH THE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING SEVERAL STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AT THIS TIME...WITH SMALL HAIL
AND WINDS TO 50 MPH THE THREATS AT THIS TIME. AS WAS ALSO
ANTICIPATED...HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES
TO BE A THREAT WITH ONE OF THE STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING SLIGHTLY
OVER AN INCH AS IT MOVED OVER THE OFFICE HERE IN ROMEOVILLE.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED ALONG BEST
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT FROM ROCKFORD SOUTHEAST TO KANKAKEE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WHERE INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES. AS
LARGE VORT MAX WELL TO THE NORTH CONTINUES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO EXIT. BEST
LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE LOST WITH THE COVERAGE OF STORMS LIKELY
DECREASING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DO CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THIS AFTERNOONS
CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS A SOURCE OF LOW HORIZONTAL LEVEL SHEAR. THIS
LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD
PROVIDE A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH ISOLATED FUNNEL
CLOUDS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE STORMS
DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY EVENING...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FOG ALONG THE SHORE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT THIS FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO SPILL
BACK INLAND LATE THIS EVENING MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN DURING THIS TIME...BUT WITH THIS FOG/STRATUS LIKELY
MOVING FURTHER INLAND AND AFFECTING A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL MAKE MENTION OF FOG IN
THE GRIDS/ZONES AND HWO...AN MONITOR THIS INLAND PUSH THIS EVENING
FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AGAIN TONIGHT.
AFTER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENINGS DEVELOPMENT DIMINISHES...DONT
EXPECT ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. DO EXPECT THURSDAY MORNING TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS WELL
AS ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY WELL WEST OF THE CWA
DURING THIS TIME. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME
WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY TO DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CWA. THIS
POTENTIAL ENERGY COINCIDING WITH A LINGERING BOUNDARY STRETCHED
ACROSS THE REGION COULD PROVIDE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BEST FOCUS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA BUT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT TO DRIFT EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE CWA...DID MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. DO EXPECT
THURSDAY NIGHT BE ON THE DRIER SIDE WHILE THE STRONGER FLOW/ENERGY
REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR WAA PRECIP
TO SWING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...DID LEAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION IN THE GRIDS. RISING HEIGHTS AND PERSISTENT WAA
WILL BE THE TREND INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE ENERGY THE NORTHWEST
SLOWLY APPROACHES. A VERY MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN...HAVE
WARRANTED CHANCE POP MENTION INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* SCATTERED SHRA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
* IFR CIGS/VSBY RETURN LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DIMINISHING AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE. AS
WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...IFR VSBY AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN
DISSIPATE IN THE MORNING. EXPECTING EAST WINDS TOMORROW WITH
SPEEDS 6-8 KT. COULD SEE WINDS APPROACH 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH 10 KT RIGHT NOW.
OTHERWISE VFR TOMORROW AFTER THE CIGS AND FOG DISSIPATE.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR AGAIN TONIGHT...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND MVFR OR LOWER CIGS.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
239 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NOVA
SCOTIA SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC CONSOLIDATES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. DRIER AIR IS STARTING TO FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WHICH SHOULD HELP REDUCE THE COVERAGE
OF FOG ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE INTO THE EVENING. DENSE
FOG WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE
LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND LIKELY BECOME VARIABLE ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SPREADING DOWN THE LAKE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST INTO FRIDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT GOING INTO FRIDAY AND FAVOR A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BUT THE FLOW MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT THEY
BECOME ONSHORE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BUT THE STRONG WARM
ADVECTION WILL KEEP SHARP INVERSION IN PLACE SO SPEED INCREASE MAY
BE LIMITED. THE LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTENSIFY SUNDAY KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LAKE AND TURN WINDS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE STABLE LAYER WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS BUT OFFSHORE FLOW ON THE WEST AND SOUTH
SHORES WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONGER BREEZE STRETCHING A FEW MILES FROM
SHORE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A COOL FRONT
ACROSS THE LAKE TURNING WINDS WESTERLY.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 10 AM
THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
849 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 845 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014
Like last evening, will update the forecast around 10 pm with
isolated showers and thunderstorms still occurring along and ne
of I-74 through 10 pm. This diurnally driven convection closer to
weak frontal boundary drifting slowy sw toward I-74 at mid evening
should dissipate about 1-2 hours after sunset. Plus short wave
over Great Lakes region is moving away from NE IL this evening.
Added patchy fog late tonight and early Thu morning to northeast
counties with light winds. Crossover temperatures should be within
reach between 3-7 am especially over ne counties and HRRR shows
fog developing ne of I-74 later tonight with the dense fog over ne
IL and nw IN. Like last night though, cirrus clouds spreading ne
across areas se of IL river may limit fog formation. Lows in the
low to mid 60s looks on track, though nudged lows up a tad over sw
counties where dewpoints are currently around 70F.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 650 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014
Continued VCSH at BMI and CMI until dusk/02Z but still with VFR
ceilings above 3K ft. A short wave over the Great Lakes region
will exit east of NE IL during this evening and diurnally driven
isolated convection from BMI ne will dissipate as sunsets and
short wave pulls away from NE IL. Models like HRRR show most of
fog development overnight over NE IL into central/northern IN but
does get close to I-74 late tonight and early Thu morning so will
carry 4-6 miles with fog and best chance of fog at CMI. Isolated
convection to develop over central and western/sw IL Thu afternoon
and coverage to isolated to mention in central IL TAFs at this
time even at SPI. WNW winds 5-10 kts early this evening to
diminish light and veer east after dusk as weak frontal boundary
currently ne of I-74 pushes slowly sw into central IL and becomes
quasi stationary overnight into Thu morning before lifting back ne
Thu afternoon. Have ESE winds 5-8 kts after 14Z Thu with scattered
cumulus clouds around 4K ft.
07
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014
Main forecast problem today is the summertime convective pattern
and daily pops.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night.
Morning upper air and surface data shows a weak upper system
moving east today through the Great Lakes, with minor low center
and surface convergence boundary from WI to northern IL. Result is
scattered storms mainly over northern IL in the evening that will
dissipate by in the evening.
For Thursday into Friday, the moist, unstable airmass moves back
north into region, with dew points increasing. The result is the
chance of scattered storms over the region, but with no defined
boundaries and light upper winds, pcpn will be scattered.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday.
Upper flow changes a little from the weak zonal with a minor ridge
over MS valley to an minor upper level wave moving from the
rockies into the upper plains. This pattern drives a series of
cold fronts inot the Great Lakes, trailing south into the IL
region. As a result, another chance of pops over the weekend and
into the first of next week. However models are different on the
strength of the front and upper forcing remains in the Great
Lakes. With those factors, kept pops in chance category at this
time, with further refinement possible later when the exact
feature timing is better seen.
GOETSCH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
239 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2014
...Update to short term...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
Main focus is on this afternoon and tonight. Problematic forecast because
the short term convective allowing mesoscale models aren`t handling
the current situation that well. The most recent RAP is starting to
get a clue and looks reasonable. Convection is firing off an old outflow
boundary and a minor upper level pressure perturbation. Convection is
building southward with southerly winds feeding into it, so think storms
will continue to increase in coverage with this associated warm air
advection and eventually forward propagate. Large Hail Parameter (LHP)
is lower now with a value of 4. Think this is due to fairly less steep
mid level lapse rates and more marginal upper level wind shear. Anyhoo,
moderate instability and lower end shear will still support the notion
of severe weather across the forecast area. The most significant threat
is heavy rainfall with pwats up 116% above normal per blended satellite
derived products. Ramped up pops and qpf, although my pops could be
raised even higher, but did not want to be too out of coordination with
neighbors. Will monitor and tweak pops and wx as needed in the ESTF
period. Lows tonight will be in the 60s. Highs in the 80sF tomorrow
with more MCS activity likely.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
For Wednesday night, a lee trough will be nearly stationary with
moist upslope flow. The upper level winds are very weak, but with
good instability some thunderstorms will be likely mainly north of
and east of Dodge City. Have upped thunderstorms chances to around
60 percent in the I-70 area and 30 to 40 percent elsewhere. The
chances for widespread severe weather looks only marginal at this
time with weak upper level support. Overnight lows will be mild and
in the mid to upper 60s.
For Thursday, a lee trough continues with moist upslope flow and
again the upper winds look weak to support any severe weather. Some
thunderstorms will be lingering across mainly parts of south central
Kansas. Highs will range from the low to mid 90s west towards the
Colorado border, to the upper 80s east across parts of south central
Kansas.
For the period of Friday into next Tuesday, a strong upper level
shortwave trough will be moving east into the Intermountain
West and Colorado Rockies on Friday afternoon. This system then
lifts northeast into the Northern Plains for the Weekend. The best
chances for thunderstorms looks to be along the I-70 corridor on
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The main storm track then looks
to remain north of Kansas into Tuesday. Overnight lows will be mild
in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with highs warming from around 90 on
Friday to the mid 90s on Sunday and Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
VFR through much of the pd. Main exception in local areas of +tsra,
mainly for KGCK this evening. -tsra will be possible too at KDDC/KHYS.
Southerly winds today becoming light and variable.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 87 67 89 / 70 30 40 20
GCK 64 89 67 90 / 70 20 40 20
EHA 61 89 66 93 / 50 20 30 10
LBL 63 89 68 92 / 70 20 30 20
HYS 64 87 67 88 / 70 30 60 30
P28 67 87 68 89 / 70 40 50 40
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
232 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2014
...Updated for Long Term...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
At the time of this writing (just after 0830 UTC), a small mesoscale
convective system (MCS) was slowly dissolving as it moved
east-southeast across southwestern Kansas. There were other weakly
organized storms across northwestern Kansas. There appeared to be a
slow warming in infrared cold cloud tops associated with the western
Kansas convection as we head toward the early morning hours. Water
vapor and RAP analysis suggested a weak shortwave trough from
southern Wyoming down into central Colorado. This feature will allow
the redevelopment of the southeastern Colorado leeside low with
south-southeast winds resuming by mid to late morning across
portions of southwestern Kansas. Winds in the wake of this morning`s
MCS will be light and one or two convergence zones will likely set
up at the surface where south to southeast winds of 12 to 15 knots
will converge into areas of weak or nearly calm winds over portions
of west central and/or northwestern Kansas. These convergence areas
at the surface will foster development of surface-based
thunderstorms in the 20-22Z time frame just about anywhere across
far east-central/southeast Colorado and/or western Kansas. The NAM12
shows a band of enhanced mid level flow from the west-northwest
across eastern Colorado and western Kansas of 28 to 34 knots
(500mb)...providing ample enough deep layer shear for supercell
structures with the strongest discrete convection. Any supercell
storms which develop would move almost due south given the mid level
flow direction out of the west-northwest. It is unclear how long
discrete thunderstorm phase will last, but back on Sunday there was
a supercell storm that rolled south for 4+ hours (eastern Oklahoma
Panhandle into the northeastern Texas Panhandle) before becoming
absorbed by other convection and transitioning to an MCS. The
CAPE/Shear profile does not look all that dissimilar from the
Sunday event. Should a supercell storm form and thrive in this
environment, maximum hail size of tennis balls will be possible
(local research /Large Hail Parameter/ in the upper single digits
also supports this maximum hail size). The thinking is that any
such hail event of that size would be very isolated and probably
brief with many of the hail reports being half dollar to 2-inch in
diameter. We increased POPs to 60 percent and included "Heavy
Rain" in the grids given the continued very moist environment and
impressive QPF signals from the WRF high- resolution models...as
well as the ECMWF. POPs may need to be increased further (to
categorical/80+) later on today as mesoscale details emerge.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
For Wednesday night, a lee trough will be nearly stationary with
moist upslope flow. The upper level winds are very weak, but with
good instability some thunderstorms will be likely mainly north of
and east of Dodge City. Have upped thunderstorms chances to around
60 percent in the I-70 area and 30 to 40 percent elsewhere. The
chances for widespread severe weather looks only marginal at this
time with weak upper level support. Overnight lows will be mild and
in the mid to upper 60s.
For Thursday, a lee trough continues with moist upslope flow and
again the upper winds look weak to support any severe weather. Some
thunderstorms will be lingering across mainly parts of south central
Kansas. Highs will range from the low to mid 90s west towards the
Colorado border, to the upper 80s east across parts of south central
Kansas.
For the period of Friday into next Tuesday, a strong upper level
shortwave trough will be moving east into the Intermountain
West and Colorado Rockies on Friday afternoon. This system then
lifts northeast into the Northern Plains for the Weekend. The best
chances for thunderstorms looks to be along the I-70 corridor on
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The main storm track then looks
to remain north of Kansas into Tuesday. Overnight lows will be mild
in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with highs warming from around 90 on
Friday to the mid 90s on Sunday and Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
VFR through much of the pd. Main exception in local areas of +tsra,
mainly for KGCK this evening. -tsra will be possible too at KDDC/KHYS.
Southerly winds today becoming light and variable.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 87 67 89 / 70 30 40 20
GCK 64 89 67 90 / 70 20 40 20
EHA 61 89 66 93 / 50 20 30 10
LBL 63 89 68 92 / 70 20 30 20
HYS 64 87 67 88 / 70 30 60 30
P28 67 87 68 89 / 70 40 50 40
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
117 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2014
...Update for mesoscale discussion...
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
Monitoring near term radar trends. Convection is developing along an
old outflow boundary. Dual-pol precip estimates as much as 2-4" has
fallen outside the CWA across Gove county. Blended satellite pwats are
around 116% of normal. The overall environment is conducive to very
heavy rainfall if a storm tracks over you. Short term LHP values not
so high due to weak upper level shear and marginal mid level lapse rates.
Tweaking pops and wx based off short term grids. Model`s aren`t handling
today very well, but have ramped up pops area wide to account for this
uncertainty.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 911 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A minor upper level wave was moving across Colorado at 12Z. This feature
was the partial impetus for scattered convection across the Colorado
Plains and western Kansas this morning. The KDDC pwat was 1.07" this
morning, or between the 50th/75th percentile. KDDC WSR-88D was indicating
returned power this morning and also in regional radar mosaic.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
At the time of this writing (just after 0830 UTC), a small mesoscale
convective system (MCS) was slowly dissolving as it moved
east-southeast across southwestern Kansas. There were other weakly
organized storms across northwestern Kansas. There appeared to be a
slow warming in infrared cold cloud tops associated with the western
Kansas convection as we head toward the early morning hours. Water
vapor and RAP analysis suggested a weak shortwave trough from
southern Wyoming down into central Colorado. This feature will allow
the redevelopment of the southeastern Colorado leeside low with
south-southeast winds resuming by mid to late morning across
portions of southwestern Kansas. Winds in the wake of this morning`s
MCS will be light and one or two convergence zones will likely set
up at the surface where south to southeast winds of 12 to 15 knots
will converge into areas of weak or nearly calm winds over portions
of west central and/or northwestern Kansas. These convergence areas
at the surface will foster development of surface-based
thunderstorms in the 20-22Z time frame just about anywhere across
far east-central/southeast Colorado and/or western Kansas. The NAM12
shows a band of enhanced mid level flow from the west-northwest
across eastern Colorado and western Kansas of 28 to 34 knots
(500mb)...providing ample enough deep layer shear for supercell
structures with the strongest discrete convection. Any supercell
storms which develop would move almost due south given the mid level
flow direction out of the west-northwest. It is unclear how long
discrete thunderstorm phase will last, but back on Sunday there was
a supercell storm that rolled south for 4+ hours (eastern Oklahoma
Panhandle into the northeastern Texas Panhandle) before becoming
absorbed by other convection and transitioning to an MCS. The
CAPE/Shear profile does not look all that dissimilar from the
Sunday event. Should a supercell storm form and thrive in this
environment, maximum hail size of tennis balls will be possible
(local research /Large Hail Parameter/ in the upper single digits
also supports this maximum hail size). The thinking is that any
such hail event of that size would be very isolated and probably
brief with many of the hail reports being half dollar to 2-inch in
diameter. We increased POPs to 60 percent and included "Heavy
Rain" in the grids given the continued very moist environment and
impressive QPF signals from the WRF high- resolution models...as
well as the ECMWF. POPs may need to be increased further (to
categorical/80+) later on today as mesoscale details emerge.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A weak upper level ridge is progged to move through the Rockies
Wednesday, then through the Plains Thursday before exiting stage
right on Friday. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is
expected to move into the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West
Wednesday and Thursday then into the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains Friday into this weekend. A trough of low pressure at the
surface will intensify across eastern Colorado as this feature
approaches bringing southerly winds to western Kansas through the
weekend. An exiting MCS may bring scattered thunderstorms to south
central Kansas Wednesday morning but should exit the area by noon. A
slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night, otherwise expect mostly cloudy
skies. Clouds decrease in coverage Thursday with partly cloudy skies
expected through Saturday. A chance of thunderstorms will then be
possible across northern Kansas and the I-70 corridor Saturday night
as lift increases due to an upper level shortwave moving through
across Nebraska. Otherwise expect a slight increase in cloud cover.
Upper level ridging looks to build into the southern Rockies by the
beginning of next week. This should suppress any significant weather
across western Kansas with partly cloudy skies. Highs throughout the
extended period start out in the upper 80s Wednesday with lower 90s
expected Thursday through the weekend. Highs in the mid to upper 90s
are possible early next week. Lows start out in the upper 60s
Thursday morning with lower 70s anticipated through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
VFR through much of the pd. Main exception in local areas of +tsra,
mainly for KGCK this evening. -tsra will be possible too at KDDC/KHYS.
Southerly winds today becoming light and variable.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 87 67 88 / 70 30 40 20
GCK 64 89 67 89 / 70 20 40 20
EHA 61 89 66 92 / 50 20 30 10
LBL 63 89 68 90 / 70 20 30 20
HYS 64 87 67 88 / 70 30 60 30
P28 67 87 69 88 / 70 40 50 40
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Sugden
SYNOPSIS...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1236 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
Quiet weather was in place across the local forecast area early this
morning with light winds, high clouds, and departing surface high
pressure. Farther to the west in western KS and eastern CO, a
loosely organized convective system was making slow eastward
progression. This convection seemed tied to a weak upper disturbance
that was making a very slow eastward progression out of CO and NM
through weak flow aloft. Additional weak, but seemingly more
well-defined upper waves were located over southern California and
eastern Montana. While the CA wave will be slow to move east, it
seems that the Montana system may dive southeast and possibly
interact with the system in eastern Colorado by tonight.
In terms of the local forecast and sensible weather through tonight,
expect the area of showers and thunderstorms to continue with slow
but steady eastward development. Generally speaking, the NMM, ARW,
and HRRR seem to be handling the situation well through the day,
which coincides fairly well with larger scale model guidance as
well. This suggests that showers and a few storms may encroach upon
the Highway 81 corridor by early afternoon and possibly build into
far eastern KS by early evening. All indications suggest a tight
instability gradient from east to west which also gradually
progresses to the east with time. This should prevent the convection
from developing more quickly east today even if a few cold pools
push out from convection. As the instability does arrive, it will be
rather meager, as will wind shear profiles, and even strong storms
seem quite unlikely through tonight. All told, much of the area
stands a good chance to see at least some precip by sunrise on
Wednesday, although amounts may be spotty.
Aside from precip, temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s
today, with some question in just how warm it will get depending
largely on cloud cover as more widespread clouds could hold everyone
in the lower 80s. Winds will be light through tonight and dewpoints
will remain fairly comfortable...in the low to middle 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A slow upper shortwave trough translates southeast over the CO
Rockies and central plains on Wednesday afternoon. Position and
timing from guidance was fairly similar in developing a swath of
showers and thunderstorms across the CWA from the overnight into
the afternoon hours. Ample southerly moisture transport is aided by
PWAT values in excess of 1.6 inches through the period. Have
increased chances across the area during the day, gradually
tapering off west to east by Wednesday evening. Do not expect
severe storms with main threat being heavy rain and flash
flooding.
Occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected from Thursday
onward as weaker upper perturbations within the mean flow give
much uncertainty where mesoscale boundaries or areas of lift are
positioned for scattered convection to form. Similar to previous
trends, late afternoon into early evening time frame during peak
heating and minimal inhibition is likely.
The weekend forecast, for the most part, appears dry Friday and
Saturday with temporary ridging over the area. On Saturday, H5 flow
begins to back and increase toward the southwest in response to a
deepening upper trof across the western CONUS. By the late afternoon
period, a moist and unstable airmass in place may trigger scattered
thunderstorms along/ahead of a cold front stretched over central KS
into south central NE. A few storms may be severe in proximity to
the convergent boundary where surface based CAPE in excess of 3000
J/KG complements effective shear near 40 kts. Activity weakens as it
progresses eastward by Sunday with some indication of redevelopment
by late afternoon across east central areas. Otherwise trends from
the GFS/ECMWF depict weak trofs rotating through the main wave as
the frontal boundary becomes a focal point for additional scattered
convection Sunday evening into Monday.
Minor adjustments were made to temperatures in the extended.
Insulation from cloud cover and rainfall Wednesday should hold highs
to the low 80s throughout the afternoon. Sunshine returns Thursday
as consensus guidance warrants increased highs in the mid and upper 80s.
With ample sunshine and increased boundary layer mixing through the
weekend, warming trend continues with highs in the upper 80s to low
90s by Monday. Overnight lows follow suit from the mid 60s Thursday
to the low 70s Friday into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
Thunderstorm chances increasing over the next few hours with upper
wave approaching. May see a break for much of the 03-09Z window
but expect increasing trends again thereafter. Have kept VCTS
going but will watch trends for anything more persistent.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2014
...Update to aviation...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 911 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A minor upper level wave was moving across Colorado at 12Z. This feature
was the partial impetus for scattered convection across the Colorado
Plains and western Kansas this morning. The KDDC pwat was 1.07" this
morning, or between the 50th/75th percentile. KDDC WSR-88D was indicating
returned power this morning and also in regional radar mosaic.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
At the time of this writing (just after 0830 UTC), a small mesoscale
convective system (MCS) was slowly dissolving as it moved
east-southeast across southwestern Kansas. There were other weakly
organized storms across northwestern Kansas. There appeared to be a
slow warming in infrared cold cloud tops associated with the western
Kansas convection as we head toward the early morning hours. Water
vapor and RAP analysis suggested a weak shortwave trough from
southern Wyoming down into central Colorado. This feature will allow
the redevelopment of the southeastern Colorado leeside low with
south-southeast winds resuming by mid to late morning across
portions of southwestern Kansas. Winds in the wake of this morning`s
MCS will be light and one or two convergence zones will likely set
up at the surface where south to southeast winds of 12 to 15 knots
will converge into areas of weak or nearly calm winds over portions
of west central and/or northwestern Kansas. These convergence areas
at the surface will foster development of surface-based
thunderstorms in the 20-22Z time frame just about anywhere across
far east-central/southeast Colorado and/or western Kansas. The NAM12
shows a band of enhanced mid level flow from the west-northwest
across eastern Colorado and western Kansas of 28 to 34 knots
(500mb)...providing ample enough deep layer shear for supercell
structures with the strongest discrete convection. Any supercell
storms which develop would move almost due south given the mid level
flow direction out of the west-northwest. It is unclear how long
discrete thunderstorm phase will last, but back on Sunday there was
a supercell storm that rolled south for 4+ hours (eastern Oklahoma
Panhandle into the northeastern Texas Panhandle) before becoming
absorbed by other convection and transitioning to an MCS. The
CAPE/Shear profile does not look all that dissimilar from the
Sunday event. Should a supercell storm form and thrive in this
environment, maximum hail size of tennis balls will be possible
(local research /Large Hail Parameter/ in the upper single digits
also supports this maximum hail size). The thinking is that any
such hail event of that size would be very isolated and probably
brief with many of the hail reports being half dollar to 2-inch in
diameter. We increased POPs to 60 percent and included "Heavy
Rain" in the grids given the continued very moist environment and
impressive QPF signals from the WRF high- resolution models...as
well as the ECMWF. POPs may need to be increased further (to
categorical/80+) later on today as mesoscale details emerge.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A weak upper level ridge is progged to move through the Rockies
Wednesday, then through the Plains Thursday before exiting stage
right on Friday. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is
expected to move into the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West
Wednesday and Thursday then into the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains Friday into this weekend. A trough of low pressure at the
surface will intensify across eastern Colorado as this feature
approaches bringing southerly winds to western Kansas through the
weekend. An exiting MCS may bring scattered thunderstorms to south
central Kansas Wednesday morning but should exit the area by noon. A
slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night, otherwise expect mostly cloudy
skies. Clouds decrease in coverage Thursday with partly cloudy skies
expected through Saturday. A chance of thunderstorms will then be
possible across northern Kansas and the I-70 corridor Saturday night
as lift increases due to an upper level shortwave moving through
across Nebraska. Otherwise expect a slight increase in cloud cover.
Upper level ridging looks to build into the southern Rockies by the
beginning of next week. This should suppress any significant weather
across western Kansas with partly cloudy skies. Highs throughout the
extended period start out in the upper 80s Wednesday with lower 90s
expected Thursday through the weekend. Highs in the mid to upper 90s
are possible early next week. Lows start out in the upper 60s
Thursday morning with lower 70s anticipated through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
VFR through much of the pd. Main exception in local areas of +tsra,
mainly for KGCK this evening. -tsra will be possible too at KDDC/KHYS.
Southerly winds today becoming light and variable.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 65 87 67 / 60 60 20 30
GCK 85 64 87 67 / 60 60 20 30
EHA 84 64 90 66 / 60 50 20 30
LBL 87 64 90 68 / 60 60 20 30
HYS 80 64 85 67 / 40 40 20 30
P28 86 68 87 69 / 40 60 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
911 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2014
...Update to synopsis...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 911 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A minor upper level wave was moving across Colorado at 12Z. This feature
was the partial impetus for scattered convection across the Colorado
Plains and western Kansas this morning. The KDDC pwat was 1.07" this
morning, or between the 50th/75th percentile. KDDC WSR-88D was indicating
returned power this morning and also in regional radar mosaic.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
At the time of this writing (just after 0830 UTC), a small mesoscale
convective system (MCS) was slowly dissolving as it moved
east-southeast across southwestern Kansas. There were other weakly
organized storms across northwestern Kansas. There appeared to be a
slow warming in infrared cold cloud tops associated with the western
Kansas convection as we head toward the early morning hours. Water
vapor and RAP analysis suggested a weak shortwave trough from
southern Wyoming down into central Colorado. This feature will allow
the redevelopment of the southeastern Colorado leeside low with
south-southeast winds resuming by mid to late morning across
portions of southwestern Kansas. Winds in the wake of this morning`s
MCS will be light and one or two convergence zones will likely set
up at the surface where south to southeast winds of 12 to 15 knots
will converge into areas of weak or nearly calm winds over portions
of west central and/or northwestern Kansas. These convergence areas
at the surface will foster development of surface-based
thunderstorms in the 20-22Z time frame just about anywhere across
far east-central/southeast Colorado and/or western Kansas. The NAM12
shows a band of enhanced mid level flow from the west-northwest
across eastern Colorado and western Kansas of 28 to 34 knots
(500mb)...providing ample enough deep layer shear for supercell
structures with the strongest discrete convection. Any supercell
storms which develop would move almost due south given the mid level
flow direction out of the west-northwest. It is unclear how long
discrete thunderstorm phase will last, but back on Sunday there was
a supercell storm that rolled south for 4+ hours (eastern Oklahoma
Panhandle into the northeastern Texas Panhandle) before becoming
absorbed by other convection and transitioning to an MCS. The
CAPE/Shear profile does not look all that dissimilar from the
Sunday event. Should a supercell storm form and thrive in this
environment, maximum hail size of tennis balls will be possible
(local research /Large Hail Parameter/ in the upper single digits
also supports this maximum hail size). The thinking is that any
such hail event of that size would be very isolated and probably
brief with many of the hail reports being half dollar to 2-inch in
diameter. We increased POPs to 60 percent and included "Heavy
Rain" in the grids given the continued very moist environment and
impressive QPF signals from the WRF high- resolution models...as
well as the ECMWF. POPs may need to be increased further (to
categorical/80+) later on today as mesoscale details emerge.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A weak upper level ridge is progged to move through the Rockies
Wednesday, then through the Plains Thursday before exiting stage
right on Friday. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is
expected to move into the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West
Wednesday and Thursday then into the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains Friday into this weekend. A trough of low pressure at the
surface will intensify across eastern Colorado as this feature
approaches bringing southerly winds to western Kansas through the
weekend. An exiting MCS may bring scattered thunderstorms to south
central Kansas Wednesday morning but should exit the area by noon. A
slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night, otherwise expect mostly cloudy
skies. Clouds decrease in coverage Thursday with partly cloudy skies
expected through Saturday. A chance of thunderstorms will then be
possible across northern Kansas and the I-70 corridor Saturday night
as lift increases due to an upper level shortwave moving through
across Nebraska. Otherwise expect a slight increase in cloud cover.
Upper level ridging looks to build into the southern Rockies by the
beginning of next week. This should suppress any significant weather
across western Kansas with partly cloudy skies. Highs throughout the
extended period start out in the upper 80s Wednesday with lower 90s
expected Thursday through the weekend. Highs in the mid to upper 90s
are possible early next week. Lows start out in the upper 60s
Thursday morning with lower 70s anticipated through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
VFR conditions will prevail this morning into this afternoon with
scattered high clouds. Winds will generally be from the south at
10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots by late morning. Winds then
shift to more of a southeasterly direction this afternoon. A
chance of thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into
the evening bringing brief periods of MVFR conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 65 87 67 / 60 60 20 30
GCK 85 64 87 67 / 60 60 20 30
EHA 84 64 90 66 / 60 50 20 30
LBL 87 64 90 68 / 60 60 20 30
HYS 80 64 85 67 / 40 40 20 30
P28 86 68 87 69 / 40 60 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
639 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2014
...Updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
At the time of this writing (just after 0830 UTC), a small mesoscale
convective system (MCS) was slowly dissolving as it moved
east-southeast across southwestern Kansas. There were other weakly
organized storms across northwestern Kansas. There appeared to be a
slow warming in infrared cold cloud tops associated with the western
Kansas convection as we head toward the early morning hours. Water
vapor and RAP analysis suggested a weak shortwave trough from
southern Wyoming down into central Colorado. This feature will allow
the redevelopment of the southeastern Colorado leeside low with
south-southeast winds resuming by mid to late morning across
portions of southwestern Kansas. Winds in the wake of this morning`s
MCS will be light and one or two convergence zones will likely set
up at the surface where south to southeast winds of 12 to 15 knots
will converge into areas of weak or nearly calm winds over portions
of west central and/or northwestern Kansas. These convergence areas
at the surface will foster development of surface-based
thunderstorms in the 20-22Z time frame just about anywhere across
far east-central/southeast Colorado and/or western Kansas. The NAM12
shows a band of enhanced mid level flow from the west-northwest
across eastern Colorado and western Kansas of 28 to 34 knots
(500mb)...providing ample enough deep layer shear for supercell
structures with the strongest discrete convection. Any supercell
storms which develop would move almost due south given the mid level
flow direction out of the west-northwest. It is unclear how long
discrete thunderstorm phase will last, but back on Sunday there was
a supercell storm that rolled south for 4+ hours (eastern Oklahoma
Panhandle into the northeastern Texas Panhandle) before becoming
absorbed by other convection and transitioning to an MCS. The
CAPE/Shear profile does not look all that dissimilar from the
Sunday event. Should a supercell storm form and thrive in this
environment, maximum hail size of tennis balls will be possible
(local research /Large Hail Parameter/ in the upper single digits
also supports this maximum hail size). The thinking is that any
such hail event of that size would be very isolated and probably
brief with many of the hail reports being half dollar to 2-inch in
diameter. We increased POPs to 60 percent and included "Heavy
Rain" in the grids given the continued very moist environment and
impressive QPF signals from the WRF high- resolution models...as
well as the ECMWF. POPs may need to be increased further (to
categorical/80+) later on today as mesoscale details emerge.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A weak upper level ridge is progged to move through the Rockies
Wednesday, then through the Plains Thursday before exiting stage
right on Friday. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is
expected to move into the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West
Wednesday and Thursday then into the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains Friday into this weekend. A trough of low pressure at the
surface will intensify across eastern Colorado as this feature
approaches bringing southerly winds to western Kansas through the
weekend. An exiting MCS may bring scattered thunderstorms to south
central Kansas Wednesday morning but should exit the area by noon. A
slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night, otherwise expect mostly cloudy
skies. Clouds decrease in coverage Thursday with partly cloudy skies
expected through Saturday. A chance of thunderstorms will then be
possible across northern Kansas and the I-70 corridor Saturday night
as lift increases due to an upper level shortwave moving through
across Nebraska. Otherwise expect a slight increase in cloud cover.
Upper level ridging looks to build into the southern Rockies by the
beginning of next week. This should suppress any significant weather
across western Kansas with partly cloudy skies. Highs throughout the
extended period start out in the upper 80s Wednesday with lower 90s
expected Thursday through the weekend. Highs in the mid to upper 90s
are possible early next week. Lows start out in the upper 60s
Thursday morning with lower 70s anticipated through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
VFR conditions will prevail this morning into this afternoon with
scattered high clouds. Winds will generally be from the south at
10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots by late morning. Winds then
shift to more of a southeasterly direction this afternoon. A
chance of thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into
the evening bringing brief periods of MVFR conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 65 87 67 / 60 60 20 30
GCK 85 64 87 67 / 60 60 20 30
EHA 84 64 90 66 / 60 50 20 30
LBL 87 64 90 68 / 60 60 20 30
HYS 80 64 85 67 / 40 40 20 30
P28 86 68 87 69 / 40 60 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
609 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
Quiet weather was in place across the local forecast area early this
morning with light winds, high clouds, and departing surface high
pressure. Farther to the west in western KS and eastern CO, a
loosely organized convective system was making slow eastward
progression. This convection seemed tied to a weak upper disturbance
that was making a very slow eastward progression out of CO and NM
through weak flow aloft. Additional weak, but seemingly more
well-defined upper waves were located over southern California and
eastern Montana. While the CA wave will be slow to move east, it
seems that the Montana system may dive southeast and possibly
interact with the system in eastern Colorado by tonight.
In terms of the local forecast and sensible weather through tonight,
expect the area of showers and thunderstorms to continue with slow
but steady eastward development. Generally speaking, the NMM, ARW,
and HRRR seem to be handling the situation well through the day,
which coincides fairly well with larger scale model guidance as
well. This suggests that showers and a few storms may encroach upon
the Highway 81 corridor by early afternoon and possibly build into
far eastern KS by early evening. All indications suggest a tight
instability gradient from east to west which also gradually
progresses to the east with time. This should prevent the convection
from developing more quickly east today even if a few cold pools
push out from convection. As the instability does arrive, it will be
rather meager, as will wind shear profiles, and even strong storms
seem quite unlikely through tonight. All told, much of the area
stands a good chance to see at least some precip by sunrise on
Wednesday, although amounts may be spotty.
Aside from precip, temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s
today, with some question in just how warm it will get depending
largely on cloud cover as more widespread clouds could hold everyone
in the lower 80s. Winds will be light through tonight and dewpoints
will remain fairly comfortable...in the low to middle 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A slow upper shortwave trough translates southeast over the CO
Rockies and central plains on Wednesday afternoon. Position and
timing from guidance was fairly similar in developing a swath of
showers and thunderstorms across the CWA from the overnight into
the afternoon hours. Ample southerly moisture transport is aided by
PWAT values in excess of 1.6 inches through the period. Have
increased chances across the area during the day, gradually
tapering off west to east by Wednesday evening. Do not expect
severe storms with main threat being heavy rain and flash
flooding.
Occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected from Thursday
onward as weaker upper perturbations within the mean flow give
much uncertainty where mesoscale boundaries or areas of lift are
positioned for scattered convection to form. Similar to previous
trends, late afternoon into early evening time frame during peak
heating and minimal inhibition is likely.
The weekend forecast, for the most part, appears dry Friday and
Saturday with temporary ridging over the area. On Saturday, H5 flow
begins to back and increase toward the southwest in response to a
deepening upper trof across the western CONUS. By the late afternoon
period, a moist and unstable airmass in place may trigger scattered
thunderstorms along/ahead of a cold front stretched over central KS
into south central NE. A few storms may be severe in proximity to
the convergent boundary where surface based CAPE in excess of 3000
J/KG complements effective shear near 40 kts. Activity weakens as it
progresses eastward by Sunday with some indication of redevelopment
by late afternoon across east central areas. Otherwise trends from
the GFS/ECMWF depict weak trofs rotating through the main wave as
the frontal boundary becomes a focal point for additional scattered
convection Sunday evening into Monday.
Minor adjustments were made to temperatures in the extended.
Insulation from cloud cover and rainfall Wednesday should hold highs
to the low 80s throughout the afternoon. Sunshine returns Thursday
as consensus guidance warrants increased highs in the mid and upper 80s.
With ample sunshine and increased boundary layer mixing through the
weekend, warming trend continues with highs in the upper 80s to low
90s by Monday. Overnight lows follow suit from the mid 60s Thursday
to the low 70s Friday into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
Current occasionally reduced visibility should be all VFR by 12Z.
Then expect VFR through the TAF period aside from brief reduced
conditions with any thunderstorm activity. Timing of ts through
the TAF period has very low confidence. Expect morning precip to
remain west of TAF sites although it could come close to MHK. Late
day activity should be scattered and timing is very much in
question due to lack of a strong focus for storms...so have taken
a VCTS approach for several hours while it will more likely be a
few periods of TS at/near TAF sites during the VCTS time frame.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
350 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
Quiet weather was in place across the local forecast area early this
morning with light winds, high clouds, and departing surface high
pressure. Farther to the west in western KS and eastern CO, a
loosely organized convective system was making slow eastward
progression. This convection seemed tied to a weak upper disturbance
that was making a very slow eastward progression out of CO and NM
through weak flow aloft. Additional weak, but seemingly more
well-defined upper waves were located over southern California and
eastern Montana. While the CA wave will be slow to move east, it
seems that the Montana system may dive southeast and possibly
interact with the system in eastern Colorado by tonight.
In terms of the local forecast and sensible weather through tonight,
expect the area of showers and thunderstorms to continue with slow
but steady eastward development. Generally speaking, the NMM, ARW,
and HRRR seem to be handling the situation well through the day,
which coincides fairly well with larger scale model guidance as
well. This suggests that showers and a few storms may encroach upon
the Highway 81 corridor by early afternoon and possibly build into
far eastern KS by early evening. All indications suggest a tight
instability gradient from east to west which also gradually
progresses to the east with time. This should prevent the convection
from developing more quickly east today even if a few cold pools
push out from convection. As the instability does arrive, it will be
rather meager, as will wind shear profiles, and even strong storms
seem quite unlikely through tonight. All told, much of the area
stands a good chance to see at least some precip by sunrise on
Wednesday, although amounts may be spotty.
Aside from precip, temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s
today, with some question in just how warm it will get depending
largely on cloud cover as more widespread clouds could hold everyone
in the lower 80s. Winds will be light through tonight and dewpoints
will remain fairly comfortable...in the low to middle 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A slow upper shortwave trough translates southeast over the CO
Rockies and central plains on Wednesday afternoon. Position and
timing from guidance was fairly similar in developing a swath of
showers and thunderstorms across the CWA from the overnight into
the afternoon hours. Ample southerly moisture transport is aided by
PWAT values in excess of 1.6 inches through the period. Have
increased chances across the area during the day, gradually
tapering off west to east by Wednesday evening. Do not expect
severe storms with main threat being heavy rain and flash
flooding.
Occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected from Thursday
onward as weaker upper perturbations within the mean flow give
much uncertainty where mesoscale boundaries or areas of lift are
positioned for scattered convection to form. Similar to previous
trends, late afternoon into early evening time frame during peak
heating and minimal inhibition is likely.
The weekend forecast, for the most part, appears dry Friday and
Saturday with temporary ridging over the area. On Saturday, H5 flow
begins to back and increase toward the southwest in response to a
deepening upper trof across the western CONUS. By the late afternoon
period, a moist and unstable airmass in place may trigger scattered
thunderstorms along/ahead of a cold front stretched over central KS
into south central NE. A few storms may be severe in proximity to
the convergent boundary where surface based CAPE in excess of 3000
J/KG complements effective shear near 40 kts. Activity weakens as it
progresses eastward by Sunday with some indication of redevelopment
by late afternoon across east central areas. Otherwise trends from
the GFS/ECMWF depict weak trofs rotating through the main wave as
the frontal boundary becomes a focal point for additional scattered
convection Sunday evening into Monday.
Minor adjustments were made to temperatures in the extended.
Insulation from cloud cover and rainfall Wednesday should hold highs
to the low 80s throughout the afternoon. Sunshine returns Thursday
as consensus guidance warrants increased highs in the mid and upper 80s.
With ample sunshine and increased boundary layer mixing through the
weekend, warming trend continues with highs in the upper 80s to low
90s by Monday. Overnight lows follow suit from the mid 60s Thursday
to the low 70s Friday into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
Previous thinking was that the recent rains, light winds, and
clear skies was going to cause ground fog or haze later this
morning, but increasing clouds from the convection out west might
inhibit this development. There is probably still a slight chance
of haze at TOP and MHK, but vis should remain VFR or perhaps
briefly drop to MVFR depending on the cloud coverage. There is a
chance non-severe thunderstorms could reach MHK after 00Z
although the confidence on coverage and timing is low at this
point. Thunderstorms may also reach TOP/FOE very late in the taf
period.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Sanders
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
335 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2014
...Updated Short Term Section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
At the time of this writing (just after 0830 UTC), a small mesoscale
convective system (MCS) was slowly dissolving as it moved
east-southeast across southwestern Kansas. There were other weakly
organized storms across northwestern Kansas. There appeared to be a
slow warming in infrared cold cloud tops associated with the western
Kansas convection as we head toward the early morning hours. Water
vapor and RAP analysis suggested a weak shortwave trough from
southern Wyoming down into central Colorado. This feature will allow
the redevelopment of the southeastern Colorado leeside low with
south-southeast winds resuming by mid to late morning across
portions of southwestern Kansas. Winds in the wake of this morning`s
MCS will be light and one or two convergence zones will likely set
up at the surface where south to southeast winds of 12 to 15 knots
will converge into areas of weak or nearly calm winds over portions
of west central and/or northwestern Kansas. These convergence areas
at the surface will foster development of surface-based
thunderstorms in the 20-22Z time frame just about anywhere across
far east-central/southeast Colorado and/or western Kansas. The NAM12
shows a band of enhanced mid level flow from the west-northwest
across eastern Colorado and western Kansas of 28 to 34 knots
(500mb)...providing ample enough deep layer shear for supercell
structures with the strongest discrete convection. Any supercell
storms which develop would move almost due south given the mid level
flow direction out of the west-northwest. It is unclear how long
discrete thunderstorm phase will last, but back on Sunday there was
a supercell storm that rolled south for 4+ hours (eastern Oklahoma
Panhandle into the northeastern Texas Panhandle) before becoming
absorbed by other convection and transitioning to an MCS. The
CAPE/Shear profile does not look all that dissimilar from the
Sunday event. Should a supercell storm form and thrive in this
environment, maximum hail size of tennis balls will be possible
(local research /Large Hail Parameter/ in the upper single digits
also supports this maximum hail size). The thinking is that any
such hail event of that size would be very isolated and probably
brief with many of the hail reports being half dollar to 2-inch in
diameter. We increased POPs to 60 percent and included "Heavy
Rain" in the grids given the continued very moist environment and
impressive QPF signals from the WRF high- resolution models...as
well as the ECMWF. POPs may need to be increased further (to
categorical/80+) later on today as mesoscale details emerge.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A weak upper level ridge is progged to move through the Rockies
Wednesday, then through the Plains Thursday before exiting stage
right on Friday. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is
expected to move into the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West
Wednesday and Thursday then into the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains Friday into this weekend. A trough of low pressure at the
surface will intensify across eastern Colorado as this feature
approaches bringing southerly winds to western Kansas through the
weekend. An exiting MCS may bring scattered thunderstorms to south
central Kansas Wednesday morning but should exit the area by noon. A
slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night, otherwise expect mostly cloudy
skies. Clouds decrease in coverage Thursday with partly cloudy skies
expected through Saturday. A chance of thunderstorms will then be
possible across northern Kansas and the I-70 corridor Saturday night
as lift increases due to an upper level shortwave moving through
across Nebraska. Otherwise expect a slight increase in cloud cover.
Upper level ridging looks to build into the southern Rockies by the
beginning of next week. This should suppress any significant weather
across western Kansas with partly cloudy skies. Highs throughout the
extended period start out in the upper 80s Wednesday with lower 90s
expected Thursday through the weekend. Highs in the mid to upper 90s
are possible early next week. Lows start out in the upper 60s
Thursday morning with lower 70s anticipated through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A small mesoscale convective system (MCS) will affect GCK and DDC
terminals through 08Z, but otherwise VFR conditions will prevail
with light winds overnight. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to
develop by mid afternoon across much of west-central and southwest
Kansas, and in the TAF will forecast a 6-hr period of PROB30
thunderstorms for DDC, GCK, HYS 21Z to 03Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 65 87 67 / 60 60 20 30
GCK 85 64 87 67 / 60 60 20 30
EHA 84 64 90 66 / 60 50 20 30
LBL 87 64 90 68 / 60 60 20 30
HYS 80 64 85 67 / 40 40 20 30
P28 86 68 87 69 / 40 60 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
327 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2014
...Updated long term section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
Another MCS night likely across far western Kansas. There is isolated
weak thunderstorms developing across south central Kansas this afternoon
as well. Have the highest pops along and west of Garden City to Liberal,
although the most recent HRRR propagates the MCS farther east. Something
to watch and update ESTF grids based on reality rather than model output
solutions. There could be some severe weather across far western Kansas
as meso analyzed SBCAPES are near 2000 J/kg and 30 kt effective bulk
shear. Most probable threat is hail and winds along with heavy rainfall
as pwats remain just below the 75th percentile for a normal distribution.
Overnight minimums will be in the 60sF.
Another MCS likely tomorrow. Attempted to add some diurnal pop variability
with a minimum towards 18Z and maximum at the end of my period. Some
uncertainty in storm placement as convective allowing models are different
than the global models. Broad bushed pops at this point as pwats remain
high and the overall synoptic pattern is that which is conducive for
MCS`s. There could be some marginal severe weather again as instability is
moderate and bulk shear is more marginal. Highs in the 80sF.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A weak upper level ridge is progged to move through the Rockies
Wednesday, then through the Plains Thursday before exiting stage
right on Friday. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is
expected to move into the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West
Wednesday and Thursday then into the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains Friday into this weekend. A trough of low pressure at the
surface will intensify across eastern Colorado as this feature
approaches bringing southerly winds to western Kansas through the
weekend. An exiting MCS may bring scattered thunderstorms to south
central Kansas Wednesday morning but should exit the area by noon. A
slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night, otherwise expect mostly cloudy
skies. Clouds decrease in coverage Thursday with partly cloudy skies
expected through Saturday. A chance of thunderstorms will then be
possible across northern Kansas and the I-70 corridor Saturday night
as lift increases due to an upper level shortwave moving through
across Nebraska. Otherwise expect a slight increase in cloud cover.
Upper level ridging looks to build into the southern Rockies by the
beginning of next week. This should suppress any significant weather
across western Kansas with partly cloudy skies. Highs throughout the
extended period start out in the upper 80s Wednesday with lower 90s
expected Thursday through the weekend. Highs in the mid to upper 90s
are possible early next week. Lows start out in the upper 60s
Thursday morning with lower 70s anticipated through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A small mesoscale convective system (MCS) will affect GCK and DDC
terminals through 08Z, but otherwise VFR conditions will prevail
with light winds overnight. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to
develop by mid afternoon across much of west-central and southwest
Kansas, and in the TAF will forecast a 6-hr period of PROB30
thunderstorms for DDC, GCK, HYS 21Z to 03Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 65 87 67 / 40 50 20 30
GCK 85 64 87 67 / 40 50 20 30
EHA 84 64 90 66 / 40 50 20 30
LBL 87 64 90 68 / 40 50 20 30
HYS 82 64 85 67 / 20 40 20 30
P28 86 68 87 69 / 30 40 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
125 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2014
...Updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
Another MCS night likely across far western Kansas. There is isolated
weak thunderstorms developing across south central Kansas this afternoon
as well. Have the highest pops along and west of Garden City to Liberal,
although the most recent HRRR propagates the MCS farther east. Something
to watch and update ESTF grids based on reality rather than model output
solutions. There could be some severe weather across far western Kansas
as meso analyzed SBCAPES are near 2000 J/kg and 30 kt effective bulk
shear. Most probable threat is hail and winds along with heavy rainfall
as pwats remain just below the 75th percentile for a normal distribution.
Overnight minimums will be in the 60sF.
Another MCS likely tomorrow. Attempted to add some diurnal pop variability
with a minimum towards 18Z and maximum at the end of my period. Some
uncertainty in storm placement as convective allowing models are different
than the global models. Broad bushed pops at this point as pwats remain
high and the overall synoptic pattern is that which is conducive for
MCS`s. There could be some marginal severe weather again as instability is
moderate and bulk shear is more marginal. Highs in the 80sF.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
For Tuesday night, a weak upper level shortwave trough will be
moving across western Kansas with numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected as an MCS. At this time with weak wind shear and
instability the chances for severe do not look that promising. Have
upped precip chances. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s.
On Wednesday, more widely scattered thunderstorms are possible with
moderate instability mainly by late afternoon. The upper level winds
again look weak with severe thunderstorms not a good bet. Highs will
be in the mid to upper 80s.
For the period Thursday into next Monday, the best chance for more
scattered thunderstorms looks to be on Thursday with another weak
upper level wave. A stronger wave moves from the Pacific Northwest
and into the Northern Plains by the Weekend with the best chance for
thunderstorms mainly far north across I-70. Lows will be mild in the
upper 60s to lower 70s, with highs warming slowly from the upper 80s
into the low to mid 90s by the Weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A small mesoscale convective system (MCS) will affect GCK and DDC
terminals through 08Z, but otherwise VFR conditions will prevail
with light winds overnight. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to
develop by mid afternoon across much of west-central and southwest
Kansas, and in the TAF will forecast a 6-hr period of PROB30
thunderstorms for DDC, GCK, HYS 21Z to 03Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 65 87 67 / 40 50 20 30
GCK 85 64 87 67 / 40 50 20 30
EHA 84 64 90 66 / 40 50 30 30
LBL 87 64 90 68 / 40 50 30 30
HYS 82 64 85 67 / 20 40 20 30
P28 86 68 87 69 / 30 40 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
954 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVING COMPLETELY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WITH THE HRRR MODEL SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...DECIDED TO REMOVE PRECIPITATION FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOKING AT RADAR
IMAGERY UPSTREAM...THERE WERE ONLY A FEW ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA...AND THESE SHOULD DIE
OUT WELL BEFORE THEY COULD ARRIVE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO UPDATED PER THE REMOVAL OF RAIN FROM THE
FORECAST. CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD VALLEY
FOG...WHICH COULD BE DENSE AT TIMES NEAR BODIES OF WATER AT IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL...IN THE FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR
IMAGERY OF SHOWER AND STORM EVOLUTION ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. THE CURRENT FORECAST
WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH 2Z THIS EVENING BEFORE
EVERYTHING DISSIPATES. FOG IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA AFTER 5Z TONIGHT. THE FOG COULD BE DENSE AT TIMES NEAR BODIES OF
WATER...IN OUR DEEPER VALLEYS...AND AT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL TODAY. THE LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST PERIOD WAS REMOVED TO
MAKE THE FORECAST CURRENT AS WELL. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS
ALSO UPDATED TO REMOVE THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD AND ANY OTHER
OUTDATED WORDING LEFT OVER FROM THE DAY SHIFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
SOME POP UP SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY GO AWAY AS THE
SUN GOES DOWN TODAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA. EXPECTING SOME FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THERE WILL
BE A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
CLEARING SKIES AND THE RADIATIVE COOLING. THERE MAY BE SOME DENSE
VALLEY FOG IN PLACES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FORECAST FOR
TOMORROW IS A BIT OF A STRUGGLE. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE
SHOWING SOME AN OMEGA SPIKE DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. SOME OF
THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES WERE NOT FORECASTING ANY
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER WITH THE FRONT BEING NEARBY AND WITH MORE THAN
ONE MODEL INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR RAIN...DECIDED TO KEEP THE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. WITH THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...THE DEWPOINTS WILL DROP OFF A LITTLE WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO LOWER THE LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. THE HIGHS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY SEASONABLE IN THE MID 80S.
WITH THE LOWER HUMIDITY...IT SHOULD FEEL A LITTLE MORE COMFORTABLE
TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
A WARM AND MUGGY SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHWARD
INTO THE APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL BE PROMINENT...THE
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LEND ITSELF TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES BEING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (30-40 PERCENT) SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY FLIRTING WITH 90 EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE GETTING BEAT DOWN FROM THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY
AS A TROUGH DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD FORCE A
COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
APPEARS FAIRLY WEAK AND STRUNG OUT IN THE MODELING BY THE TIME IT
MAKES IT HERE SO WILL SIMPLY CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
AND GIVE US ANY REPRIEVE FROM THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS BEYOND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS NEAR ANY STORMS AND THE
STRONGER SHOWERS THIS EVENING...HOWEVER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR AROUND 2Z ONCE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE GONE. EXPECTING FOG IN
OUR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ALSO AT THE TAF STATIONS. IF THE CLOUDS AND
WINDS ARE JUST RIGHT...THE TAF SITES COULD SEE IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND
VSBYS AT TIMES BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT. ANY FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT
BY 13Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
411 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST TODAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON ARE CONFIRMING THAT THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND MID LEVEL WARMING IS KEEPING ANY
CONVECTION FROM FORMING OR MOVING INTO THE REGION AT THIS TIME.
THE MODELS SHOWED THAT THIS MID LEVEL WARMING WOULD CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH ABOUT 3Z...THUS LIMITING AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
POP UP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SO EXPECT TO
SEE A DRY EVENING.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
DEW POINTS ARE REFLECTING THAT AS THEY HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. THIS COULD LEAD
SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT TOWARDS MORNING AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SO HAVE SLOWLY RAMPED UP
TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE VA/NC BORDER AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD 12Z.
NOT CONFIDENT TO GO HIGHER WITH THE POPS AT THIS STAGE...BUT ANY
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR.
FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN
TONIGHT WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...HAVE KEPT THE LOWS UP TOWARD THE
MAV NUMBERS...ALLOWING FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE CLEAR
SKY EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE LATER WHICH COULD PUMP
READINGS UP TOWARD MORNING. THE MET NUMBERS LOOK A LITTLE TOO HIGH
GIVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME COOLING EARLY IN THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS AGREE ON THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND THE NORTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY...BUT ARE STRUGGLING SOME TO DEPICT THE FEATURES AND
LIFT PATTERNS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH OVER VA AND NC. SO THIS HAS LED
TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
WITH THE TROUGH LIFTING TO THE NORTH...THE BEST FORCING IS ALSO
LIFTING NORTH AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NRN VA/WRN MD INTO PA WED
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH VA/NC DURING
THIS TIME...BUT THE BOUNDARY IS WEAK AND THE LIFT IS NOT FOCUS SO
HAVE HELD MOST POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DID KEEP A LITTLE AREA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO THE FORCING. THE OTHER FEATURE TO WATCH IS THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE SERN US COAST THAT
GETS PULLED NORTHWARD ON WED. THIS COULD KICK OFF SHOWERS ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS FROM ERN NC THROUGH THE DELMARVA. BUT AGAIN THE
FORCING IS NOT STRONG AND THE TIMING IS EARLY IN THE DAY. SO FOR
NOW HAVE JUST GONE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THAT WAVE.
THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY SO HAVE THE
SFC FRONT OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXITING BY THURS AFTERNOON. SO HAVE SPED THE CLEARING OF THE POPS
THUR AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BE DRY EVERYWHERE BASE ON HOW QUICK
THE DRY AIR ARRIVES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
BY THURS EVENING INTO FRIDAY...WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVE AND
SLOWLY SLIDE OFF THE COAST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL TURN THE
SFC FLOW FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BACK TO THE SE BY FRI
AFTERNOON. WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS...COULD
SEE SOME POP UP CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT SO HAVE KEPT SLGT CHC
POPS IN THE SOUTH BUT DID DRY OUT AREAS FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED NEAR THE MOS NUMBERS FOR
THE PERIOD...LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS ON WED WITH
SOME MORNING SUNSHINE...AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER MOISTURE THAT WILL TAKE TIME TO ERODE AFTER THE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. FROM THURS TO FRIDAY...HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD A STRAIGHT
BLEND...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AGREE WITH WPC THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH OVERALL
PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD. THIS LOOKS TO BE A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN FOR THE AREA. A RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ALOFT ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS
NEAR 70.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WATCHING A FEW -SHRA MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND THAT
COULD IMPACT KECG MID/LATE AFTN. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN TAF ATTM. OTW...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SE WINDS
EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT SE FLOW IN PLACE THERE IS SOME CONCERN
FOR LOW STRATUS OR FOG EARLY WED MORNING OVER SE TERMINALS. WILL
INCLUDE SOME MVFR VSBY (4SM) AT KECG FOR NOW...AND MONITOR TRENDS
AT KORF/PHF.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING LAYERED MOISTURE OVERHEAD
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF
MVFR/PATCHY IFR FOG OR STRATUS WILL BE PSBL EACH MORNING NEAR
SUNRISE.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ALL DEPICT A SOUTHERLY SURGE UP THE BAY. THIS
DOES HAPPEN SOMETIMES WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. LOOKING AT THE MODEL WINDS ONLY THE RUC SHOWS
WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW THE LOCAL
WRF AND KEEP WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 18 KTS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE. ALL MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A FAIRLY WEAK FRONT.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND AND GRADUALLY SHIFT THE WINDS
TO THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL STAY UNDER SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JDM/LKB
MARINE...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
242 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THURSDAY...THEN SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES
BRINGS AN UNSTABLE PERIOD THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CWA. 12Z
KIAD RAOB INDICATED AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE /PW 1.35 INCHES/ AND
EXPECT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
RADAR SHOWS THAT A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO POP UP ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA...BUT RELATIVE LACK OF A TRIGGER
AND CAPPING WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SUCH DEVELOPMENT MUCH FURTHER EAST
PARTICULARLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS THINKING IS IN
LINE WITH LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW...AND POPS/WX THIS
EVENING REFLECT THIS. THOSE STORMS THAT AFFECT THE WESTERN CWA
HOWEVER COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF MULTIPLE STORMS
MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA.
LARGER SCALE LIFT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BE
BETTER...WITH GFS FORECASTING OVER 2" PW VALUES AND THE NAM NOT
TOO FAR AWAY FROM THAT. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN...AND WET MICROBURSTS MAY POSE AN
ISOLATED SEVERE RISK DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ASSUMING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE DAY...LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE CWA. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS COMMENCE THEREAFTER
AS NORTHWEST WINDS BRING LOWER PW/DEWPOINT AIR THROUGH THE CWA.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CLOUDS AS THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS AND SOME
COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVERTOP WARM AIR AT THE SURFACE /GIVEN
DOWNSLOPING FLOW/.
MUCH OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS ON
FRIDAY. IT WILL BE RATHER WARM...BUT HUMIDITY SHOULD STILL BE LOW.
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS WHERE THE OLD BOUNDARY MAY
SNAKE ITS WAY BACK TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THIS MAY RESULT IN
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL USHER ONSHORE
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS FLOW IS LIGHT HOWEVER, SO DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD MIX
OUT ANY NIGHTTIME INVERSION RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...AGREEMENT ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH SUNDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IS MUCH
LOWER BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE GFS HAS IT STALLED OVER NEW ENGLAND
WITH LOW PRESSURE STALLED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US...WHEREAS THE
EURO RESOLVES THE HIGH TO REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
PRIMARY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS IS THAT HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BRING WARMER/MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
THE AREA WHEREAS THE LOW LOCATED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING IN A
SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT MAY SHOW A BIT MORE OF A MARITIME INFLUENCE.
WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT AND GENERALLY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS DAILY...AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION/CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION
THAT VERIFIES AND THE GENERAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WOULD
SEEM A SAFE BET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
TUESDAYS HIGHS POSSIBLY WELL INTO THE 90S. IF THE HIGH DOES POSITION
ITSELF OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THEN TWEAKING UPWARD OF THESE
TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE AS MORE WARMER CONTINENTAL AIR WOULD BE
ADVECTED IN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE CONFINED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PROBABILITY EXISTS FOR LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT FOR LCL MVFR/IFR. THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST-FRONTAL AIR
MASS SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW CEILINGS
AND FOG COULD OCCUR IN ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO THE MORNING FRIDAY AND INTO THE MORNING SATURDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...REDUCED VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AND A PERIOD
OF SCA WINDS UP THE BAY/LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING. MARINE AREA SHOULD REMAIN THUNDERSTORM FREE THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS
TO AFFECT THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES WERE RUNNING AROUND 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. WHAT
REMAINS OF THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS THE LOWER OF THE NEXT
TWO...AND MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL BE
VULNERABLE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AGAIN /LIKE LAST NIGHT/. WILL
BE ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANNE ARUNDEL...BALTIMORE
AND DC FOR THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MDZ011-014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ531-
532-538>540.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ530>534-537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ533-534-
537-541>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/CEB
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...BPP/CEB
MARINE...BPP/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
912 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
CWA BUT ARE HANGING ON ELSEWHERE. FOLLOWED THE RAP AND NAM AS THEY
HAVE DECENT HANDLE ON COVERAGE OF CURRENT SKY COVER. EXPECT THE ONLY
PLACE TO STAY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WILL BE NORTHWEST CWA. CONTINUED TREND
OF LOWER TEMPS THERE. BASED ON PWATS DOWN TO 75 PCT OF NORMAL...CLEAR
SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...FAVORED INTERIOR SPOTS OF ONTONAGON/SOUTHERN
HOUGHTON/BARAGA COUNTIES AND PERHAPS FAR WESTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY
COULD SEE TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S. WITH LIGHT WINDS...EVEN
SPOTS ON KEWEENAW COULD DIP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES OR EVEN UPPER 30S.
ELSEWHERE THOUGH TWEAKED TEMPS UPWARD SOME BASED ON THE STUBBORN
CLOUD COVER...GENERALLY BTWN 2500FT AND 6000 FT PER SFC OBS. COULD
SEE TEMPS END UP WELL INTO THE 50S ALONG WI BODER AND MAYBE EVEN IN
THE EAST...BUT SINCE THE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR IS CLOSE BY...DID
NOT ADJUST THAT HIGH JUST QUITE YET IN CASE SOME CLEARING DEVELOPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING ACROSS NORTHERN
WI AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH HIGHER CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL WI. ADDITIONALLY...CLOUD
COVER IS SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE NORTH...WITH NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR
SEEING ONLY A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S.
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOTED ON THE WV
IMAGERY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING TO EASTERN UPPER MI BY
18Z/25 AS SHOWN BY THE NAM/GEM. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT INCREASED
CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER...OVERALL FORCING HAS BEEN FAIRLY
WEAK...KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH. FARTHER
SOUTH IS ALSO THE LOCATION OF THE GREATER INSTABILITY. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CWA BRINGING THE DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA AND HELP
TO ERODE THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE U.P. AND BECOMING ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD BY 06Z/26. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE GOING TO BE A BIT
TRICKY TO FORECAST AS THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURE
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
MAXIMIZED IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS OVERNIGHT. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 70 TO 80 PERCENT OF NORMAL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
U.P. WHERE...SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS END
UP NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. TRIED TO CAPTURE THIS TREND BY
COOLING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE OVER THE NORTH
HALF WHILE STICKING NEAR GUIDANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
IT WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A COUPLE COLDER SPOTS TO SEE
UPPER 30S...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. AGAIN THIS WILL ALL
BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON OVERALL CLOUD COVER. IN A FEW OF THE
LOCATIONS THAT FALL INTO THE 30S IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
TO SEE SOME PATCHY FROST...HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED.
THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
THIS ALONG WITH DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY AND ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TONIGHT
DESPITE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN
FRIDAY AND WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
BUT THINK MODELS ARE A LITTLE QUICK IN BRINGING IN LOW END RAIN
CHANCES TO WESTERN AREAS.
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND
EXPECT SEVERAL DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES TO EJECT OUT AHEAD OF IT
IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE CAPPING WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AND OVERALL LAPSE RATES DO NOT LOOK OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AREAS...BY LATE SATURDAY AND
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW CONVECTION
EVOLVES WEST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH SHORT
WAVE TIMING TO ASSESS POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONGER TO SEVERE
CONVECTION AS UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL
STILL REMAINS FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS SUNDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND WILL
KEEP A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY. COOL UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN LONGER OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
DIURNAL SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
COOLING OFF TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF ALL THE TAF SITES...BUT THEY DO REMAIN
PRETTY CLOSE BY AT KIWD AND KSAW. EXPECT SCT-BKN LOWER VFR CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AT BOTH SITES AS CLOUDS
SPREAD BACK OVER THESE TWO SITES. POSSIBLE THAT SUB 2KFT CIGS MAY
OCCUR AT KIWD AS LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WI DRIFT NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT ON THURSDAY AT KIWD AND
KSAW. MEANHILE...AT KCMX SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH
THURSDAY AS LAKE MODIFIED STABLE AIR RESTRICTS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY LAKE
BREEZES FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...LESS THAN 25 KTS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STILL REMAIN 25 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
124 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
LARGE VARIATION IN CLOUD BASES THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE TERMINAL
SITES WITH EVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOTED ON VISIBLE SAT.
HOWEVER...THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO LOWER AGAIN AND SUPPORT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON FROM FNT SOUTH.
EXPECT PREVAILING CLOUD BASES IN THE MVFR/VFR RANGE...WITH QUICK
DROPS IN CIG AND VISBY TO IFR IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FROM PTK
SOUTH...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS A SURFACE
TROUGH PASSES. MOIST GROUND AN A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF LOWERING CLOUDS AND FOG AFTER SUNSET. THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT...SWINGING
WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING VISIBILITIES.
FOR DTW...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND 22Z. MOIST ENVIRONMENT
WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN AND QUICK DROPS IN CIG AND VIS TO IFR
RANGE. USED TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN
GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KNOTS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AFTER
SUNSET...WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 04Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM TIMING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1158 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
ELEMENTS OVER THE TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB. THIS AREA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH. SOUTH OF
THIS...PRECIP IS LESS WIDESPREAD...BUT A FEW STRONGER SEGMENTS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE NOTED.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEADIER RAIN IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY BUT
STEADILY EASTWARD AS THE INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS LOTS OF BREAKS IN THE PRECIP...LEADING TO SOME DOUBT IN THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIP FROM THE METRO DETROIT COUNTIES TO THE OHIO
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TO FILL IN SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST UPPER FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
LOOKS TO FAVOR THE AREA NORTH OF METRO DETROIT AND SOUTH OF THE TRI
CITIES...WHICH HAS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL...GIVEN
THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE...CATEGORICAL POPS EVERYWHERE LOOK
GOOD. MAIN HAZARD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH TRAINING STORMS. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAINLY FROM METRO
DETROIT TO THE OHIO BORDER...BUT OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL
LIMIT THE THREAT. EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND
OVER THE TRI-CITIES BY MIDAFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 403 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE LARGER SCALE WEATHER FEATURES HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED IF NOT STRONGER IN MAGNITUDE. THE RESULT WILL
BE A WET DAY AROUND SE MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE MORNING AND LAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL
BE CONCERNED WITH THE PROGRESS OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO BORDER BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A DISTINCT JET MAX OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WHERE THE TROUGH IS PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
CANADIAN TROUGH/LOW. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET IS SETTING UP
TO SUPPORT ENHANCED LIFT ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THESE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES ARE WELL-ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS CONSISTING OF 850 MB DEWPOINT AROUND 13C,
700 MB DEWPOINT AROUND 5C, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2
INCHES. THE RESULT IS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT PRESS TIME WHICH WILL EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 00Z MODELS COLLECTIVELY HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON THE BULK MASS AND MOISTURE FIELDS...BUT THE NAM AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP ARE MORE THAN A SERVICEABLE REPRESENTATION OF
THE SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION SETTING UP PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM THROUGH BUFKIT ANALYSIS
INDICATE MBE VECTORS ALIGNED WITH THE MEAN FLOW...WHICH IS A HEAVY
RAINFALL SIGNATURE...BUT HIGH-RES RUNS OF THE HRRR AND WRF-NMM ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IS THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN IN THE GFS AND
ECMWF. THIS IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO HOLD OFF ON FLOOD HEADLINES FOR
NOW BUT PLAN TO HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF 1-2 INCH TOTALS AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH
THE DAY...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF SE MICHIGAN.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
TAKE THE RAIN SHIELD OUT OF SE MICHIGAN BY MID EVENING. THAT WILL
LEAVE THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH/LOW TO PIVOT SOUTHWARD DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL HELP DRY THINGS OUT FROM A RAINFALL PERSPECTIVE BUT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH WEAK GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTING
BOTH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE SAGINAW
VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DURING
THE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION WILL BE SLOW UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE PSEUDO ZONAL UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SOME FAIRLY BIG CHANGES IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. NWP IS NOW MORE
UNIFORM/LESS NOISY IN BRINGING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE
DAKOTAS DIRECTLY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER FAVORABLE ZONE OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS
ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP SHOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WITH JET
ENERGY THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THIS CONCURRENT FORCING SHOULD ALWAYS GIVE ONE
PAUSE AND CERTAINLY DOES HERE TOO. THE PROBLEM IS THE FORECASTED
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO BE STABLE WITH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION CENTERED BETWEEN 700-600MB. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO
BYPASS THIS FEATURE...WHICH WILL REQUIRE A HIGH AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE. NAM IS SUPPORTIVE OF THIS...BUT WITH IT/S HIGH BIAS
IT/S NOT EXACTLY A STRONG ENDORSEMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO DRY
HERE...AS THIS LOOKS LIKE A CALL FOR THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE 70S NORTH...TO NEAR 80 FOR
THE HIGH SFC PRESSURE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GLACIAL RIDGE.
STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RISES WILL THEN LEAD
TO STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. NWP SIGNAL
IN THE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THERE WILL ALSO BE A HEAVY COMPONENT
FROM THE STABLE LAKE AGGREGATE. DRY WEATHER WITH A MODERATING
AIRMASS SHOULD LEAD TO VERY FAVORABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN
EASTERLY FLOW TRAJECTORY SEEMS TO BE PLAYING SOME HAVOC WITH
FORECASTED SFC TEMPERATURES...BUT READINGS SHOULD PUSH 80 DEGREES
THURSDAY AND EXCEED 80 DEGREES BY FRIDAY.
MARINE...
ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK FOR THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AS A PAIR OF FRONTS WORK THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST
FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG A LINE FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE
ERIE...SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL VEER WINDS FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
WEDNESDAY...USHERING MODEST NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP WAVE
HEIGHTS IN CHECK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DT
UPDATE.......DT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1158 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
ELEMENTS OVER THE TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB. THIS AREA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH. SOUTH OF
THIS...PRECIP IS LESS WIDESPREAD...BUT A FEW STRONGER SEGMENTS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE NOTED.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEADIER RAIN IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY BUT
STEADILY EASTWARD AS THE INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS LOTS OF BREAKS IN THE PRECIP...LEADING TO SOME DOUBT IN THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIP FROM THE METRO DETROIT COUNTIES TO THE OHIO
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TO FILL IN SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST UPPER FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
LOOKS TO FAVOR THE AREA NORTH OF METRO DETROIT AND SOUTH OF THE TRI
CITIES...WHICH HAS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL...GIVEN
THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE...CATEGORICAL POPS EVERYWHERE LOOK
GOOD. MAIN HAZARD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH TRAINING STORMS. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAINLY FROM METRO
DETROIT TO THE OHIO BORDER...BUT OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL
LIMIT THE THREAT. EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND
OVER THE TRI-CITIES BY MIDAFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 710 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
//DISCUSSION...
A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE FROM
CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO SW LOWER MICHIGAN AT PRESS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD THE REST OF THE WAY OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING
AND THEN PERSIST MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS HELPING TO FOCUS THE RAINFALL IS ALSO PRODUCING IFR
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT MBS DOWN TO ABOUT FNT WHICH WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD AS THE RAIN FILLS IN OVER THE REGION. A BRIEF RETURN TO
ENTRY LEVEL VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE RAIN AREA BUT THEN FILL
BACK IN WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. IFR/LIFR
CEILING AND IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
NEARLY CALM WIND AND MOIST SURFACE AIR LEFT BEHIND BY THE RAIN BUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE DOWN FROM NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL LEAD TO IMPROVEMENT DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR DTW... THE LATEST RADAR TREND AT PRESS TIME INDICATES THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SET UP INITIALLY TO THE WEST OF DTW...BUT THEN
FILL IN TOWARD THE TERMINAL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND LAST THROUGH
THE DAY. RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
EVENT TOTAL.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM TIMING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 403 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE LARGER SCALE WEATHER FEATURES HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED IF NOT STRONGER IN MAGNITUDE. THE RESULT WILL
BE A WET DAY AROUND SE MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE MORNING AND LAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL
BE CONCERNED WITH THE PROGRESS OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO BORDER BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A DISTINCT JET MAX OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WHERE THE TROUGH IS PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
CANADIAN TROUGH/LOW. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET IS SETTING UP
TO SUPPORT ENHANCED LIFT ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THESE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES ARE WELL-ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS CONSISTING OF 850 MB DEWPOINT AROUND 13C,
700 MB DEWPOINT AROUND 5C, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2
INCHES. THE RESULT IS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT PRESS TIME WHICH WILL EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 00Z MODELS COLLECTIVELY HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON THE BULK MASS AND MOISTURE FIELDS...BUT THE NAM AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP ARE MORE THAN A SERVICEABLE REPRESENTATION OF
THE SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION SETTING UP PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM THROUGH BUFKIT ANALYSIS
INDICATE MBE VECTORS ALIGNED WITH THE MEAN FLOW...WHICH IS A HEAVY
RAINFALL SIGNATURE...BUT HIGH-RES RUNS OF THE HRRR AND WRF-NMM ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IS THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN IN THE GFS AND
ECMWF. THIS IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO HOLD OFF ON FLOOD HEADLINES FOR
NOW BUT PLAN TO HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF 1-2 INCH TOTALS AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH
THE DAY...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF SE MICHIGAN.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
TAKE THE RAIN SHIELD OUT OF SE MICHIGAN BY MID EVENING. THAT WILL
LEAVE THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH/LOW TO PIVOT SOUTHWARD DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL HELP DRY THINGS OUT FROM A RAINFALL PERSPECTIVE BUT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH WEAK GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTING
BOTH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE SAGINAW
VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DURING
THE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION WILL BE SLOW UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE PSEUDO ZONAL UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SOME FAIRLY BIG CHANGES IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. NWP IS NOW MORE
UNIFORM/LESS NOISY IN BRINGING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE
DAKOTAS DIRECTLY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER FAVORABLE ZONE OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS
ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP SHOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WITH JET
ENERGY THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THIS CONCURRENT FORCING SHOULD ALWAYS GIVE ONE
PAUSE AND CERTAINLY DOES HERE TOO. THE PROBLEM IS THE FORECASTED
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO BE STABLE WITH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION CENTERED BETWEEN 700-600MB. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO
BYPASS THIS FEATURE...WHICH WILL REQUIRE A HIGH AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE. NAM IS SUPPORTIVE OF THIS...BUT WITH IT/S HIGH BIAS
IT/S NOT EXACTLY A STRONG ENDORSEMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO DRY
HERE...AS THIS LOOKS LIKE A CALL FOR THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE 70S NORTH...TO NEAR 80 FOR
THE HIGH SFC PRESSURE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GLACIAL RIDGE.
STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RISES WILL THEN LEAD
TO STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. NWP SIGNAL
IN THE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THERE WILL ALSO BE A HEAVY COMPONENT
FROM THE STABLE LAKE AGGREGATE. DRY WEATHER WITH A MODERATING
AIRMASS SHOULD LEAD TO VERY FAVORABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN
EASTERLY FLOW TRAJECTORY SEEMS TO BE PLAYING SOME HAVOC WITH
FORECASTED SFC TEMPERATURES...BUT READINGS SHOULD PUSH 80 DEGREES
THURSDAY AND EXCEED 80 DEGREES BY FRIDAY.
MARINE...
ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK FOR THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AS A PAIR OF FRONTS WORK THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST
FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG A LINE FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE
ERIE...SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL VEER WINDS FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
WEDNESDAY...USHERING MODEST NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP WAVE
HEIGHTS IN CHECK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......DT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
710 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE FROM
CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO SW LOWER MICHIGAN AT PRESS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD THE REST OF THE WAY OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING
AND THEN PERSIST MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS HELPING TO FOCUS THE RAINFALL IS ALSO PRODUCING IFR
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT MBS DOWN TO ABOUT FNT WHICH WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD AS THE RAIN FILLS IN OVER THE REGION. A BRIEF RETURN TO
ENTRY LEVEL VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE RAIN AREA BUT THEN FILL
BACK IN WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. IFR/LIFR
CEILING AND IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
NEARLY CALM WIND AND MOIST SURFACE AIR LEFT BEHIND BY THE RAIN BUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE DOWN FROM NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL LEAD TO IMPROVEMENT DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR DTW... THE LATEST RADAR TREND AT PRESS TIME INDICATES THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SET UP INITIALLY TO THE WEST OF DTW...BUT THEN
FILL IN TOWARD THE TERMINAL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND LAST THROUGH
THE DAY. RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
EVENT TOTAL.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM TIMING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 403 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE LARGER SCALE WEATHER FEATURES HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED IF NOT STRONGER IN MAGNITUDE. THE RESULT WILL
BE A WET DAY AROUND SE MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE MORNING AND LAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL
BE CONCERNED WITH THE PROGRESS OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO BORDER BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A DISTINCT JET MAX OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WHERE THE TROUGH IS PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
CANADIAN TROUGH/LOW. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET IS SETTING UP
TO SUPPORT ENHANCED LIFT ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THESE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES ARE WELL-ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS CONSISTING OF 850 MB DEWPOINT AROUND 13C,
700 MB DEWPOINT AROUND 5C, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2
INCHES. THE RESULT IS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT PRESS TIME WHICH WILL EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 00Z MODELS COLLECTIVELY HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON THE BULK MASS AND MOISTURE FIELDS...BUT THE NAM AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP ARE MORE THAN A SERVICEABLE REPRESENTATION OF
THE SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION SETTING UP PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM THROUGH BUFKIT ANALYSIS
INDICATE MBE VECTORS ALIGNED WITH THE MEAN FLOW...WHICH IS A HEAVY
RAINFALL SIGNATURE...BUT HIGH-RES RUNS OF THE HRRR AND WRF-NMM ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IS THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN IN THE GFS AND
ECMWF. THIS IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO HOLD OFF ON FLOOD HEADLINES FOR
NOW BUT PLAN TO HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF 1-2 INCH TOTALS AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH
THE DAY...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF SE MICHIGAN.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
TAKE THE RAIN SHIELD OUT OF SE MICHIGAN BY MID EVENING. THAT WILL
LEAVE THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH/LOW TO PIVOT SOUTHWARD DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL HELP DRY THINGS OUT FROM A RAINFALL PERSPECTIVE BUT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH WEAK GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTING
BOTH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE SAGINAW
VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DURING
THE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION WILL BE SLOW UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE PSEUDO ZONAL UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SOME FAIRLY BIG CHANGES IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. NWP IS NOW MORE
UNIFORM/LESS NOISY IN BRINGING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE
DAKOTAS DIRECTLY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER FAVORABLE ZONE OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS
ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP SHOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WITH JET
ENERGY THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THIS CONCURRENT FORCING SHOULD ALWAYS GIVE ONE
PAUSE AND CERTAINLY DOES HERE TOO. THE PROBLEM IS THE FORECASTED
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO BE STABLE WITH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION CENTERED BETWEEN 700-600MB. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO
BYPASS THIS FEATURE...WHICH WILL REQUIRE A HIGH AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE. NAM IS SUPPORTIVE OF THIS...BUT WITH IT/S HIGH BIAS
IT/S NOT EXACTLY A STRONG ENDORSEMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO DRY
HERE...AS THIS LOOKS LIKE A CALL FOR THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE 70S NORTH...TO NEAR 80 FOR
THE HIGH SFC PRESSURE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GLACIAL RIDGE.
STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RISES WILL THEN LEAD
TO STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. NWP SIGNAL
IN THE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THERE WILL ALSO BE A HEAVY COMPONENT
FROM THE STABLE LAKE AGGREGATE. DRY WEATHER WITH A MODERATING
AIRMASS SHOULD LEAD TO VERY FAVORABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN
EASTERLY FLOW TRAJECTORY SEEMS TO BE PLAYING SOME HAVOC WITH
FORECASTED SFC TEMPERATURES...BUT READINGS SHOULD PUSH 80 DEGREES
THURSDAY AND EXCEED 80 DEGREES BY FRIDAY.
MARINE...
ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK FOR THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AS A PAIR OF FRONTS WORK THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST
FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG A LINE FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE
ERIE...SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL VEER WINDS FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
WEDNESDAY...USHERING MODEST NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP WAVE
HEIGHTS IN CHECK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
403 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE LARGER SCALE WEATHER FEATURES HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED IF NOT STRONGER IN MAGNITUDE. THE RESULT WILL
BE A WET DAY AROUND SE MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE MORNING AND LAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL
BE CONCERNED WITH THE PROGRESS OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO BORDER BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A DISTINCT JET MAX OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WHERE THE TROUGH IS PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
CANADIAN TROUGH/LOW. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET IS SETTING UP
TO SUPPORT ENHANCED LIFT ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THESE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES ARE WELL-ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS CONSISTING OF 850 MB DEWPOINT AROUND 13C,
700 MB DEWPOINT AROUND 5C, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2
INCHES. THE RESULT IS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT PRESS TIME WHICH WILL EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 00Z MODELS COLLECTIVELY HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON THE BULK MASS AND MOISTURE FIELDS...BUT THE NAM AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP ARE MORE THAN A SERVICEABLE REPRESENTATION OF
THE SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION SETTING UP PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM THROUGH BUFKIT ANALYSIS
INDICATE MBE VECTORS ALIGNED WITH THE MEAN FLOW...WHICH IS A HEAVY
RAINFALL SIGNATURE...BUT HIGH-RES RUNS OF THE HRRR AND WRF-NMM ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IS THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN IN THE GFS AND
ECMWF. THIS IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO HOLD OFF ON FLOOD HEADLINES FOR
NOW BUT PLAN TO HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF 1-2 INCH TOTALS AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH
THE DAY...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF SE MICHIGAN.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
TAKE THE RAIN SHIELD OUT OF SE MICHIGAN BY MID EVENING. THAT WILL
LEAVE THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH/LOW TO PIVOT SOUTHWARD DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL HELP DRY THINGS OUT FROM A RAINFALL PERSPECTIVE BUT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH WEAK GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTING
BOTH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE SAGINAW
VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DURING
THE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION WILL BE SLOW UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE PSEUDO ZONAL UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SOME FAIRLY BIG CHANGES IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. NWP IS NOW MORE
UNIFORM/LESS NOISY IN BRINGING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE
DAKOTAS DIRECTLY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER FAVORABLE ZONE OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS
ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP SHOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WITH JET
ENERGY THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THIS CONCURRENT FORCING SHOULD ALWAYS GIVE ONE
PAUSE AND CERTAINLY DOES HERE TOO. THE PROBLEM IS THE FORECASTED
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO BE STABLE WITH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION CENTERED BETWEEN 700-600MB. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO
BYPASS THIS FEATURE...WHICH WILL REQUIRE A HIGH AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE. NAM IS SUPPORTIVE OF THIS...BUT WITH IT/S HIGH BIAS
IT/S NOT EXACTLY A STRONG ENDORSEMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO DRY
HERE...AS THIS LOOKS LIKE A CALL FOR THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE 70S NORTH...TO NEAR 80 FOR
THE HIGH SFC PRESSURE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GLACIAL RIDGE.
STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RISES WILL THEN LEAD
TO STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. NWP SIGNAL
IN THE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THERE WILL ALSO BE A HEAVY COMPONENT
FROM THE STABLE LAKE AGGREGATE. DRY WEATHER WITH A MODERATING
AIRMASS SHOULD LEAD TO VERY FAVORABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN
EASTERLY FLOW TRAJECTORY SEEMS TO BE PLAYING SOME HAVOC WITH
FORECASTED SFC TEMPERATURES...BUT READINGS SHOULD PUSH 80 DEGREES
THURSDAY AND EXCEED 80 DEGREES BY FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK FOR THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AS A PAIR OF FRONTS WORK THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST
FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG A LINE FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE
ERIE...SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL VEER WINDS FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
WEDNESDAY...USHERING MODEST NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP WAVE
HEIGHTS IN CHECK.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1150 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
//DISCUSSION...
SHRAS AND A FEW TSRAS WILL LIFT NORTH OF TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL LIMIT TEMPO
GROUPS TO 08Z SOUTH...10Z NORTH AND BRING SHRAS/TSRAS BACK IN THE
14Z-15Z TIME FRAME AS FORCING FROM APPROACHING COLD FRONT COINCIDES
WITH INCREASING BROADSCALE LIFT AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
AREA ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
CLEARING WILL THEN ENSUE LATE IN THE FORECAST AS THIS MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EAST OF TH REGION.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT BY TUESDAY MORNING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING KDTW TUESDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....DG
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
107 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
PROBABLY ONE OF THE BEST WAYS TO DESCRIBE SHORT-TERM FORECASTING
IN THIS FICKLE...ACTIVE SUMMER PATTERN IS "FORECASTING-BY-
NOWCASTING." ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH THAT THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE AT LEAST A LIGHT SHOWER/BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/PLACEMENT IS EVER-CHANGING AS MOST MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
MIGHTILY WITH THE DETAILS...WITH SOME DEPICTING MORE GOING ON
THAN ACTUALLY IS...AND OTHERS NOT ENOUGH. IN REALITY...THERE ARE
ESSENTIALLY 3 SEPARATE AREAS OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITHIN OR VERY
NEAR THE EDGES OF THE CWA RIGHT NOW...BUT NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW
LIKELY RANGE EXCEPT FOR WHERE RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST RAIN
SHOULD ACTUALLY OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...WHICH AS OF THIS
WRITING IS PRIMARILY THE DEPARTING MAINLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITHIN THAYER/FILLMORE COUNTIES...AND ALSO THE SMALL CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS SLIDING INTO THE VALLEY COUNTY AREA. OTHER
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS SKIRTING THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA IN KS...WHILE
MEANWHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS CURRENTLY IN WHAT COULD BE A
MULTIPLE-HOUR BREAK FROM SHOWERS/STORMS...ALTHOUGH THAT IS NO
GUARANTEE EITHER SO HAVE AT LEAST KEPT MODEST 20-30 POPS GOING IN
ALL AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH HIGHER 40S-50S
CONCENTRATED IN THE WEST.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY...THIS IS A WEAKLY-FORCED BUT WEAKLY
CAPPED PATTERN OF WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH HOURLY
MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY SUGGESTING TWO SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS...ONE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEB AND THE OTHER SLIDING
THROUGH NORTHERN KS. THESE WAVES ARE INDUCING MODEST
THETA-E/MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THE 850-700 MILLIBAR
LEVEL...WHICH IS THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE THUS-FAR
ELEVATED ACTIVITY TODAY. AGREE WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
THAT THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD STAY AT LEAST A FEW
COUNTIES WEST OF THE CWA TODAY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER AND MIXED LAYER-CAPE IS MORE FAVORED
TO AVERAGE 1000+ J/KG BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT EVEN SO...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE RISK OF A
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM LOCALLY EITHER...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST OF A LEXINGTON-OSBORNE LINE.
AS FOR OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS TODAY...UNLIKE YESTERDAY WE ARE
PROBABLY NOT LOOKING AT A WELL-DEFINED/MULTI-HOUR PERIOD OF
CLEARING AS SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY
AS NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS UPSTREAM. AS A RESULT...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PLACES HELD DOWN IN THE LOW-MID 70S FOR
HIGHS TODAY. ALTHOUGH DID NOT GO QUITE THIS LOW JUST YET...DID
SHAVE ROUGHLY 2-3 DEGREES OFF PREVIOUS HIGHS IN MOST AREAS TO GET
THE BALL ROLLING THAT DIRECTION...CALLING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA TO TOP OUT NO HIGHER THAN UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SURROUNDING RADARS SHOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. EXPECT THE
CURRENT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND INTO THE
AREA BY DAYLIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND
THE 4KM WRF BOTH HAVE THE MAIN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE
HRRR BRINGS IN ANOTHER BAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT CHANCES
IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. SEVERAL
TIMES LATELY THERE HAVE BEEN MORE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE
HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE MUCAPE IS BEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT A LITTLE REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT THERE
COULD BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN TURN INTO A RAIN EVENT DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE
LONG TERM. THE ZONAL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATE. THIS WILL
HELP KICK UP PULSES OF ENERGY INTO THE HIGH/GREAT PLAINS THAT WILL
GIVE US A SHOT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST PERIODS OF THE LONG
TERM. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES IN AND THROUGH THE AREA...ALONG WITH AN INCREASED LOW-
LEVEL JET AND POTENTIAL STRONG CONVERGENCE NEAR THE NOSE OF THE JET
NEARBY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...JUDGING BY
SEVERE PARAMETERS...FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...BUT NARROWING DOWN A
DAY THAT IT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IS TOO DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY NOW.
TEMPERATURES APPEARED TO BE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
ASIDE FROM ANY POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION...AS HAS BEEN FOR DAYS NOW...IS THE
LIKELIHOOD/EXTENT OF ANY POSSIBLE SHOWERS/STORMS IMPACTING THE
TERMINALS. FOR NOW...THE ONLY MENTION OF ANY THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBILITY AT EITHER SITE HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE INITIAL 3-7
HOURS OF THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND EVEN THEN
HAVE ONLY WENT WITH A GENERIC VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE. HAVE STARTED VCTS A BIT SOONER
AT KGRI GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN ONGOING STRONG STORM ONLY ABOUT
20 MILES NORTH OF THE TERMINAL...ALTHOUGH THIS STORM COULD VERY
WELL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE LATTER 12-17 HOURS OF
THE PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT EVEN HIGH ENOUGH FOR VCTS AT
THIS POINT. SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...AGAIN
ASIDE FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM-RELATED ENHANCEMENTS...AS SUSTAINED
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE UNDER
10KT...GENERALLY FROM SOME SOME TYPE OF SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BUT
ALSO PRONE TO SOME VARIABLENESS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1101 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
PROBABLY ONE OF THE BEST WAYS TO DESCRIBE SHORT-TERM FORECASTING
IN THIS FICKLE...ACTIVE SUMMER PATTERN IS "FORECASTING-BY-
NOWCASTING." ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH THAT THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE AT LEAST A LIGHT SHOWER/BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/PLACEMENT IS EVER-CHANGING AS MOST MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
MIGHTILY WITH THE DETAILS...WITH SOME DEPICTING MORE GOING ON
THAN ACTUALLY IS...AND OTHERS NOT ENOUGH. IN REALITY...THERE ARE
ESSENTIALLY 3 SEPARATE AREAS OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITHIN OR VERY
NEAR THE EDGES OF THE CWA RIGHT NOW...BUT NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW
LIKELY RANGE EXCEPT FOR WHERE RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST RAIN
SHOULD ACTUALLY OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...WHICH AS OF THIS
WRITING IS PRIMARILY THE DEPARTING MAINLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITHIN THAYER/FILLMORE COUNTIES...AND ALSO THE SMALL CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS SLIDING INTO THE VALLEY COUNTY AREA. OTHER
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS SKIRTING THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA IN KS...WHILE
MEANWHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS CURRENTLY IN WHAT COULD BE A
MULTIPLE-HOUR BREAK FROM SHOWERS/STORMS...ALTHOUGH THAT IS NO
GUARANTEE EITHER SO HAVE AT LEAST KEPT MODEST 20-30 POPS GOING IN
ALL AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH HIGHER 40S-50S
CONCENTRATED IN THE WEST.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY...THIS IS A WEAKLY-FORCED BUT WEAKLY
CAPPED PATTERN OF WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH HOURLY
MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY SUGGESTING TWO SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS...ONE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEB AND THE OTHER SLIDING
THROUGH NORTHERN KS. THESE WAVES ARE INDUCING MODEST
THETA-E/MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THE 850-700 MILLIBAR
LEVEL...WHICH IS THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE THUS-FAR
ELEVATED ACTIVITY TODAY. AGREE WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
THAT THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD STAY AT LEAST A FEW
COUNTIES WEST OF THE CWA TODAY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER AND MIXED LAYER-CAPE IS MORE FAVORED
TO AVERAGE 1000+ J/KG BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT EVEN SO...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE RISK OF A
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM LOCALLY EITHER...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST OF A LEXINGTON-OSBORNE LINE.
AS FOR OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS TODAY...UNLIKE YESTERDAY WE ARE
PROBABLY NOT LOOKING AT A WELL-DEFINED/MULTI-HOUR PERIOD OF
CLEARING AS SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY
AS NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS UPSTREAM. AS A RESULT...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PLACES HELD DOWN IN THE LOW-MID 70S FOR
HIGHS TODAY. ALTHOUGH DID NOT GO QUITE THIS LOW JUST YET...DID
SHAVE ROUGHLY 2-3 DEGREES OFF PREVIOUS HIGHS IN MOST AREAS TO GET
THE BALL ROLLING THAT DIRECTION...CALLING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA TO TOP OUT NO HIGHER THAN UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SURROUNDING RADARS SHOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. EXPECT THE
CURRENT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND INTO THE
AREA BY DAYLIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND
THE 4KM WRF BOTH HAVE THE MAIN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE
HRRR BRINGS IN ANOTHER BAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT CHANCES
IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. SEVERAL
TIMES LATELY THERE HAVE BEEN MORE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE
HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE MUCAPE IS BEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT A LITTLE REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT THERE
COULD BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN TURN INTO A RAIN EVENT DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE
LONG TERM. THE ZONAL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATE. THIS WILL
HELP KICK UP PULSES OF ENERGY INTO THE HIGH/GREAT PLAINS THAT WILL
GIVE US A SHOT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST PERIODS OF THE LONG
TERM. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES IN AND THROUGH THE AREA...ALONG WITH AN INCREASED LOW-
LEVEL JET AND POTENTIAL STRONG CONVERGENCE NEAR THE NOSE OF THE JET
NEARBY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...JUDGING BY
SEVERE PARAMETERS...FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...BUT NARROWING DOWN A
DAY THAT IT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IS TOO DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY NOW.
TEMPERATURES APPEARED TO BE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE CHALLENGE FOR TODAY. A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINAL AREA SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE
A BREAK THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OR WHETHER
THERE WILL BE MORE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY WITH LESS DURING
THE NIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT SOME VCTS DURING THE DAY BUT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
620 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SURROUNDING RADARS SHOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. EXPECT THE
CURRENT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND INTO THE
AREA BY DAYLIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND
THE 4KM WRF BOTH HAVE THE MAIN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE
HRRR BRINGS IN ANOTHER BAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT CHANCES
IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. SEVERAL
TIMES LATELY THERE HAVE BEEN MORE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE
HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE MUCAPE IS BEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT A LITTLE REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT THERE
COULD BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN TURN INTO A RAIN EVENT DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE
LONG TERM. THE ZONAL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATE. THIS WILL
HELP KICK UP PULSES OF ENERGY INTO THE HIGH/GREAT PLAINS THAT WILL
GIVE US A SHOT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST PERIODS OF THE LONG
TERM. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES IN AND THROUGH THE AREA...ALONG WITH AN INCREASED LOW-
LEVEL JET AND POTENTIAL STRONG CONVERGENCE NEAR THE NOSE OF THE JET
NEARBY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...JUDGING BY
SEVERE PARAMETERS...FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...BUT NARROWING DOWN A
DAY THAT IT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IS TOO DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY NOW.
TEMPERATURES APPEARED TO BE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE CHALLENGE FOR TODAY. A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINAL AREA SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE
A BREAK THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OR WHETHER
THERE WILL BE MORE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY WITH LESS DURING
THE NIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT SOME VCTS DURING THE DAY BUT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
402 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SURROUNDING RADARS SHOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. EXPECT THE
CURRENT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND INTO THE
AREA BY DAYLIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND
THE 4KM WRF BOTH HAVE THE MAIN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE
HRRR BRINGS IN ANOTHER BAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT CHANCES
IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. SEVERAL
TIMES LATELY THERE HAVE BEEN MORE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE
HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE MUCAPE IS BEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT A LITTLE REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT THERE
COULD BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN TURN INTO A RAIN EVENT DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE
LONG TERM. THE ZONAL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATE. THIS WILL
HELP KICK UP PULSES OF ENERGY INTO THE HIGH/GREAT PLAINS THAT WILL
GIVE US A SHOT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST PERIODS OF THE LONG
TERM. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES IN AND THROUGH THE AREA...ALONG WITH AN INCREASED LOW-
LEVEL JET AND POTENTIAL STRONG CONVERGENCE NEAR THE NOSE OF THE JET
NEARBY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...JUDGING BY
SEVERE PARAMETERS...FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...BUT NARROWING DOWN A
DAY THAT IT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IS TOO DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY NOW.
TEMPERATURES APPEARED TO BE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINAL AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
527 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WLY FLOW ALF SLOWLY INCREASING NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER TROF MOVES
INTO GREAT BASIN AND SFC LEE TROF DEVELOPS. CENTRAL MT CHAIN WWD
AOA SCT150. CENTRAL MT CHAIN EASTWARD SCT-BKN140 ISOLD TSRA G40KT
UNTIL AROUND 04Z THEN AOA SCT150, EXCEPTION MAY BE THE PECOS
VALLEY FROM KROW SWD WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PUSH
NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS 06Z-15Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...309 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIR MASS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BREEZIER WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD
LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. AFTER THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS HIGHS
REACH WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE STATE. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING AND MOVE EAST WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE DRYLINE. THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
NE PLAINS AS THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SO
MAINTAINED LOW END CHANCE POPS. BASED ON SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
AND LATEST LAPS READINGS...A FEW SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE FAR NE PLAINS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST.
A DRY AIR MASS INDICATED BY THE CIRA BLENDED TPW PERCENT OF NORMAL
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
SCOUR OUT MOISTURE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE DRYLINE SETTING
UP ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER EACH DAY. MODELS HINT THAT THE
DISTURBANCE MAY DIP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SET OFF A FEW STORMS OVER
THE NORTHERN MTS FRIDAY...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE DRYLINE. STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO
BREEZIER CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. A FIRE WX WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL WEST TO EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY AS PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE DISTURBANCE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE NE PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING AND DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NE PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING. THIS THINKING
IS IN LINE WITH THE HIGH RES NAM MODEL THAT PICKS UP ON POTENTIAL
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY LACK.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BECOMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL AREA WIDE BY SUNDAY.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...INCREASING MOISTURE AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO THE AREA
UNDERNEATH THE HIGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ITS LATE IN THE MODEL
RUNS...BUT THIS MAY BE THE FIRST SIGNS OF MONSOON LIKE ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. HOPEFULLY THIS TREND HOLDS
IN ENSUING MODEL RUNS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENTLY HAVE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE EVENING DIMINISHING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THIS MORNINGS
READINGS STAYING ABOVE NORMAL AREA WIDE. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT
ACROSS THE EAST.
INTO THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
AND EASTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA WITH THE SUB TROPICAL HIGH
ELONGATED INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DRASTICALLY DECREASE WITH VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY EXPECTED AND ANYTHING
THAT DOES FORM WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
STATE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL MODERATE ACROSS THE WEST AND WILL TREND UP
ELSEWHERE. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCOMING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. WINDS ACROSS THE WEST AS WELL AS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL SEE GUSTS INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AREA WIDE WITH TEENS AND
LOW 20S ALONG THE FAR EASTERN BORDER WHERE MOISTURE IS STAYING PUT.
SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS AND THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS WITH SOME
SUPER HAINES VALUES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT WITH HIGH HAINES VALES AREA WIDE.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH INTENSIFYING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR AREA WIDE WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL LOWS TO
START OFF YOUR DAY. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AS
WELL AS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS WHERE TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS ARE FORECAST. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FURTHER ACROSS ALL AREAS...MOST PRONOUNCED AGAIN
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. THE DRYLINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE
STATE WITH MOISTURE DECREASING ACROSS THE EAST. MIN RH VALUES WILL
AGAIN BE DISMAL WITH TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS AREA WIDE. COMBINATION
OF THE WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAD TO MULTIPLE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
ZONES 103 AND 107 THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO SHOWING UP IN ZONES 104 AND 108
BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED THEM IN THE WATCH AT THIS TIME BECAUSE THEY
HAVE RECEIVED A LOT OF PRECIPITATION OF LATE. VENTILATION RATES WILL
BE EXCELLENT AREA WIDE.
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL ENSUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MINIMAL
CHANCES OF RAIN. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE STATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PULL LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SET UP
DURING THIS TIME THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
21
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-107.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1213 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
POSSIBLE STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTN/EVE EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MTNS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST PLAINS. VCSH FOR KLVS AND KTCC BECAUSE OF POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS EXPECTED FOR
KLVS...KTCC AND KROW INTO TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS FOR OTHER SITES
NOT IMPACTED BY STORMS.
&&
32
.PREV DISCUSSION...542 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR THE TX LINE WILL MOVE EAST INTO TX BY ABOUT
SUNRISE. DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER SE COLORADO WILL TURN/BACK WINDS TO
SWLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS BY AFTERNOON...BRINGING DRIER AIR IN FROM
WRN NM. MAIN STORM ACTIVITY TODAY EXPECTED FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS EWD TO THE FAR NE PLAINS. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
UNION AND COLFAX COUNTIES. ISOLD MAINLY DRY SHOWERS OR STORMS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH SKC OR A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WEST.
33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...337 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER. THIS INCLUDES THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
EAST WITH THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS LATER TODAY INTO EVENING. AFTER TONIGHT... A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OR FAR EASTERN PLAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK...BUT HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MONITORING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. EARLY
STAGES OF A DEVELOPING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX UNDERWAY
NORTHWEST OF TUCUMCARI THAT IS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE LATEST 13KM RAP
AND 03Z HRRR ADVERTISED IF NOT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. SHALLOW
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EASTWARD COUPLED WITH A BROAD REGION
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AIDING THIS EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT
THAT IS ALIGNED ALONG A NW-SE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH A
STRONG/WELL- DEFINED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT STRETCHING FROM
NORTH OF SANTA ROSA SEWD TOWARD THE LUBBOCK AREA. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/WX GRIDS BUT WILL LIKELY REVISIT JUST BEFORE
PUBLISHING.
TRENDS AFTER THIS MORNING/S CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WEAKENS AND/OR
EXITS TO THE EAST BETWEEN 13Z-15Z WILL BE MORE COMPLICATED... AS
WESTWARD-PUSHING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY REINFORCE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FIELDS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
REGARDLESS... ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WILL REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW AND WITH MID- LEVEL DRYING AND
SOME LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY NEED FOR
EXPANSION OF ISOLATED POPS EAST OF THE DIVIDE THE RIO GRANDE. DID
BEEF UP POPS FOR SC AREAS AS WELL AS THE FAR NE WHERE LOW LEVEL
WINDS MAY GRADUALLY BACK TO MORE EASTERLY LATE IN THE DAY
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THERE.
LESS ACTIVE TONIGHT INTO WED AM AS MID-LEVEL DRYING ADVANCES
EASTWARD BENEATH A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH LESS DEFINED
INDICATORS FOR LARGE SCALE UPWARD FORCING. EXPECT TO SEE A FAIRLY
WELL DEFINED SURFACE DRYLINE WED PM NEAR THE NM/TX LINE WITH A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER SE COLO. THE GFS DEVELOPS A WEAKER
SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH WOULD AGAIN FAVOR THE FAR NE
PLAINS FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT SEVERE BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS
TRENDING WAY DOWN SAVE FOR AREAS NEAR THE TX LINE AND POSSIBLY NE
CORNER. EVEN DRIER/LESS ACTIVE WITH INCREASED WINDINESS FOR THU
WITH AGAIN THE FOCUS FOR STORMS NEAR THE NM/TX LINE ALONG THE
DRYLINE. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SPREADS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY WITH DRYLINE REGIME
PERSISTING. 500MB HEIGHTS THEN REBOUND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
STRONGER RIDGE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD LOSE INFLUENCE OF
THE WESTERLIES BY MON/TUE...AND SIGNS THAT IT MAY PERSIST. KJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO TO MONDAY EXPECTED TODAY. BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WITH SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY THAN MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER SE COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND DRY AIR FROM
THE WEST BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY...SCOURING OUT MORE GULF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE FAR NE PLAINS.
DRY WESTERLIES WIN OUT AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY AS LEE SFC TROUGH
STRENGTHENS FURTHER. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH HIGH HAINES VALUES AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION
RATES. WEST WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE A POSSIBILITY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PRIMARILY FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE FINALLY LOSE THE WESTERLIES
ALOFT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOUR CORNERS HIGH BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN AZ AND SW NM
SUNDAY...THEN OVER CENTRAL NM MONDAY. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAY DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. MODELS HINTING THAT MONSOON MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO SEEP
NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. 33
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR THE TX LINE WILL MOVE EAST INTO TX BY ABOUT
SUNRISE. DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER SE COLORADO WILL TURN/BACK WINDS TO
SWLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS BY AFTERNOON...BRINGING DRIER AIR IN FROM
WRN NM. MAIN STORM ACTIVITY TODAY EXPECTED FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS EWD TO THE FAR NE PLAINS. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
UNION AND COLFAX COUNTIES. ISOLD MAINLY DRY SHOWERS OR STORMS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH SKC OR A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WEST.
33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...337 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER. THIS INCLUDES THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
EAST WITH THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS LATER TODAY INTO EVENING. AFTER TONIGHT... A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OR FAR EASTERN PLAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK...BUT HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MONITORING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. EARLY
STAGES OF A DEVELOPING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX UNDERWAY
NORTHWEST OF TUCUMCARI THAT IS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE LATEST 13KM RAP
AND 03Z HRRR ADVERTISED IF NOT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. SHALLOW
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EASTWARD COUPLED WITH A BROAD REGION
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AIDING THIS EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT
THAT IS ALIGNED ALONG A NW-SE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH A
STRONG/WELL- DEFINED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT STRETCHING FROM
NORTH OF SANTA ROSA SEWD TOWARD THE LUBBOCK AREA. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/WX GRIDS BUT WILL LIKELY REVISIT JUST BEFORE
PUBLISHING.
TRENDS AFTER THIS MORNING/S CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WEAKENS AND/OR
EXITS TO THE EAST BETWEEN 13Z-15Z WILL BE MORE COMPLICATED... AS
WESTWARD-PUSHING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY REINFORCE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FIELDS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
REGARDLESS... ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WILL REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW AND WITH MID- LEVEL DRYING AND
SOME LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY NEED FOR
EXPANSION OF ISOLATED POPS EAST OF THE DIVIDE THE RIO GRANDE. DID
BEEF UP POPS FOR SC AREAS AS WELL AS THE FAR NE WHERE LOW LEVEL
WINDS MAY GRADUALLY BACK TO MORE EASTERLY LATE IN THE DAY
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THERE.
LESS ACTIVE TONIGHT INTO WED AM AS MID-LEVEL DRYING ADVANCES
EASTWARD BENEATH A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH LESS DEFINED
INDICATORS FOR LARGE SCALE UPWARD FORCING. EXPECT TO SEE A FAIRLY
WELL DEFINED SURFACE DRYLINE WED PM NEAR THE NM/TX LINE WITH A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER SE COLO. THE GFS DEVELOPS A WEAKER
SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH WOULD AGAIN FAVOR THE FAR NE
PLAINS FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT SEVERE BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS
TRENDING WAY DOWN SAVE FOR AREAS NEAR THE TX LINE AND POSSIBLY NE
CORNER. EVEN DRIER/LESS ACTIVE WITH INCREASED WINDINESS FOR THU
WITH AGAIN THE FOCUS FOR STORMS NEAR THE NM/TX LINE ALONG THE
DRYLINE. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SPREADS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY WITH DRYLINE REGIME
PERSISTING. 500MB HEIGHTS THEN REBOUND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
STRONGER RIDGE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD LOSE INFLUENCE OF
THE WESTERLIES BY MON/TUE...AND SIGNS THAT IT MAY PERSIST. KJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO TO MONDAY EXPECTED TODAY. BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WITH SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY THAN MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER SE COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND DRY AIR FROM
THE WEST BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY...SCOURING OUT MORE GULF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE FAR NE PLAINS.
DRY WESTERLIES WIN OUT AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY AS LEE SFC TROUGH
STRENGTHENS FURTHER. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH HIGH HAINES VALUES AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION
RATES. WEST WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE A POSSIBILITY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PRIMARILY FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE FINALLY LOSE THE WESTERLIES
ALOFT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOUR CORNERS HIGH BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN AZ AND SW NM
SUNDAY...THEN OVER CENTRAL NM MONDAY. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAY DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. MODELS HINTING THAT MONSOON MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO SEEP
NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. 33
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
337 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER. THIS INCLUDES THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
EAST WITH THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS LATER TODAY INTO EVENING. AFTER TONIGHT... A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OR FAR EASTERN PLAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK...BUT HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MONITORING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. EARLY
STAGES OF A DEVELOPING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX UNDERWAY
NORTHWEST OF TUCUMCARI THAT IS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE LATEST 13KM RAP
AND 03Z HRRR ADVERTISED IF NOT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. SHALLOW
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EASTWARD COUPLED WITH A BROAD REGION
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AIDING THIS EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT
THAT IS ALIGNED ALONG A NW-SE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH A
STRONG/WELL- DEFINED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT STRETCHING FROM
NORTH OF SANTA ROSA SEWD TOWARD THE LUBBOCK AREA. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/WX GRIDS BUT WILL LIKELY REVISIT JUST BEFORE
PUBLISHING.
TRENDS AFTER THIS MORNING/S CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WEAKENS AND/OR
EXITS TO THE EAST BETWEEN 13Z-15Z WILL BE MORE COMPLICATED... AS
WESTWARD-PUSHING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY REINFORCE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FIELDS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
REGARDLESS... ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WILL REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW AND WITH MID- LEVEL DRYING AND
SOME LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY NEED FOR
EXPANSION OF ISOLATED POPS EAST OF THE DIVIDE THE RIO GRANDE. DID
BEEF UP POPS FOR SC AREAS AS WELL AS THE FAR NE WHERE LOW LEVEL
WINDS MAY GRADUALLY BACK TO MORE EASTERLY LATE IN THE DAY
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THERE.
LESS ACTIVE TONIGHT INTO WED AM AS MID-LEVEL DRYING ADVANCES
EASTWARD BENEATH A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH LESS DEFINED
INDICATORS FOR LARGE SCALE UPWARD FORCING. EXPECT TO SEE A FAIRLY
WELL DEFINED SURFACE DRYLINE WED PM NEAR THE NM/TX LINE WITH A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER SE COLO. THE GFS DEVELOPS A WEAKER
SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH WOULD AGAIN FAVOR THE FAR NE
PLAINS FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT SEVERE BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS
TRENDING WAY DOWN SAVE FOR AREAS NEAR THE TX LINE AND POSSIBLY NE
CORNER. EVEN DRIER/LESS ACTIVE WITH INCREASED WINDINESS FOR THU
WITH AGAIN THE FOCUS FOR STORMS NEAR THE NM/TX LINE ALONG THE
DRYLINE. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SPREADS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY WITH DRYLINE REGIME
PERSISTING. 500MB HEIGHTS THEN REBOUND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
STRONGER RIDGE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD LOSE INFLUENCE OF
THE WESTERLIES BY MON/TUE...AND SIGNS THAT IT MAY PERSIST. KJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO TO MONDAY EXPECTED TODAY. BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WITH SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY THAN MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER SE COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND DRY AIR FROM
THE WEST BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY...SCOURING OUT MORE GULF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE FAR NE PLAINS.
DRY WESTERLIES WIN OUT AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY AS LEE SFC TROUGH
STRENGTHENS FURTHER. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH HIGH HAINES VALUES AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION
RATES. WEST WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE A POSSIBILITY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PRIMARILY FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE FINALLY LOSE THE WESTERLIES
ALOFT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOUR CORNERS HIGH BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN AZ AND SW NM
SUNDAY...THEN OVER CENTRAL NM MONDAY. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAY DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. MODELS HINTING THAT MONSOON MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO SEEP
NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. 33
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
GENERAL WLY FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS PUSHED WESTWARD AND
INTO THE RGV BUT NOT AS PLENTIFUL AS NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER WHERE
AT LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH POSSIBLY 12Z. LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS TO PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS AND INTO THE RGV
THROUGH 12Z WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...THOUGH NOT INDICATED IN KLVS
TAF ATTM. EXPECT ISOLD CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN AND WRN HIGH TERRAIN BY 24/19Z...WITH MAINLY VIRGA WEST OF
THE RGV.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 92 53 93 54 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 88 41 89 41 / 5 5 0 0
CUBA............................ 89 48 90 48 / 5 5 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 89 45 90 48 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 84 44 84 45 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 90 46 89 46 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 86 50 86 51 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 93 49 94 50 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 82 41 83 42 / 10 5 5 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 84 58 86 58 / 20 5 0 0
PECOS........................... 80 54 83 54 / 30 10 5 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 81 45 82 45 / 20 10 5 5
RED RIVER....................... 73 41 75 42 / 30 20 10 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 76 39 78 39 / 30 20 10 10
TAOS............................ 84 46 86 46 / 10 10 5 5
MORA............................ 79 49 83 50 / 30 20 20 10
ESPANOLA........................ 90 52 92 53 / 5 5 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 85 56 86 56 / 10 5 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 89 54 91 54 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 90 63 91 64 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 93 64 94 65 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 95 61 96 62 / 5 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 94 63 95 64 / 10 5 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 95 57 96 58 / 5 5 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 93 62 95 64 / 10 5 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 98 67 101 66 / 5 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 89 58 90 58 / 20 5 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 90 58 90 59 / 10 5 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 86 49 88 51 / 20 5 5 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 84 54 87 56 / 30 10 5 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 88 59 90 59 / 20 5 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 90 63 92 64 / 10 5 5 5
RUIDOSO......................... 84 54 86 56 / 30 10 5 10
CAPULIN......................... 79 53 83 54 / 40 30 30 20
RATON........................... 85 53 88 53 / 30 30 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 85 52 89 53 / 30 20 20 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 82 51 86 51 / 30 20 10 10
CLAYTON......................... 86 60 90 61 / 50 40 20 20
ROY............................. 82 57 86 58 / 30 30 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 91 63 95 64 / 30 20 10 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 89 61 93 62 / 20 10 5 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 92 65 97 65 / 30 30 10 20
CLOVIS.......................... 87 63 93 63 / 20 30 10 20
PORTALES........................ 89 64 94 66 / 20 30 10 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 89 64 94 65 / 20 20 10 10
ROSWELL......................... 94 67 99 67 / 20 10 10 10
PICACHO......................... 89 61 93 62 / 30 10 5 10
ELK............................. 84 59 87 61 / 30 10 5 10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
150 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ANTECEDENT DRY WEATHER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT. FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY
LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY SUMMER NORMALS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT TUESDAY...I`VE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND REMOVED
MENTION OF OVERNIGHT THUNDER WITH THIS UPDATE. WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...HOWEVER EXAMINATION OF
00Z BUF ALB AND DTX RAOBS REVEALS AN AIRMASS WITH NO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THAT IS LIKELY ACCOMPANYING THE AREA OF SHOWERS NOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LAKE ONTARIO. THUS FELT JUSTIFIED IN
REMOVING MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
FEEL THAT THE HRRR AND BTV-4 HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON PRESENT AREA
OF SHOWERS...AND BASED ON THESE DATA HAVE ALSO INDICATED SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWER WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND REST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TOWARDS MORNING.
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID NIGHT COMPARED TO PRIOR
EVENINGS WITH DEWPOINTS ON THE RISE AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT MONDAY...INCLEMENT 36-48 HOUR STRETCH OF WEATHER
THEN EXPECTED DURING TUE/WED AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTHEAST AND A
SLOWLY PROGRESSING COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION.
MODELS GENERALLY ON BOARD SHOWING THE FRONT SLOWING AS IT
PROGRESSES INTO NY/NEW ENGLAND AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. OF COURSE THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AS SOLUTIONS
HAVE A VARIETY OF IDEAS ON WHERE BEST FORCING SETS UP AND THE
DEGREE TO WHICH IT DRIVES THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.
COORDINATION WITH WPC SUGGESTS A BLENDED APPROACH THE BEST ROUTE
AT THIS POINT...WHICH WILL ACT TO DAMPEN THE MORE ROBUST
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS UNTIL WE CAN GET A BETTER GAGE
ON HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION (PWATS 1-75 TO 2.00 IN) PRIOR IDEA OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL STILL APPEARS QUITE REASONABLE AT THIS POINT...THOUGH
WITH RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD AND/OR RIVER FLOODING APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT PBL
INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY MODEST AT BEST AND WITH PREVALENCE OF
CLOUD COVER THIS SHOULD INHIBIT HIGHER-END UPDRAFT STRENGTH BY AND
LARGE. HIGHS TOMORROW SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A TAD COOLER IN
THE SLV...THEN GENERALLY 70S FOR WEDNESDAY WITH PREVALENCE OF
CLOUDS/PCPN. LOWS REMAINING MILD TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S...LOCALLY NEAR 70 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FRONT CLEARS SLOWLY OFFSHORE WITH ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING WEST TO EAST THROUGH TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES
SEASONABLE...MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE LONG TERM PATTERN WL FEATURE
BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS THE SE CONUS BY THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROGRESSIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. IN ADDITION...A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS LIKELY BY
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH THE CHCS FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS.
FOR THURSDAY...HAVE NOTED A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF SFC BOUNDARY
ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING MID LVL RH. WL
HOLD ONTO A CHC OF SHOWERS ACRS THE CT RIVER VALLEY/PARTS OF
CENTRAL VT THRU 15Z...BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE FA. SFC HIGH
PRES AND BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WL KEEP FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY DRY WITH
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS EMBEDDED 5H VORT RIDES ACRS THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE...BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING...SO WL
KEEP POPS <15% ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS START BTWN 10-12C FOR
THURS/FRIDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE L70S MTNS TO NEAR 80F
WARMER VALLEYS. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLW WL HELP ADVECT WARMER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARMING BTWN 14-16C. THIS WL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. BOTH GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW BUILDING RIDGE ACRS
THE EASTERN CONUS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARM/HUMID AIRMASS
BUILDING ACRS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD...BUT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. FIRST ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING...BUT
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5000 FEET AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO
VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 14Z AND 20Z...THEN SHOWERS RETURN ALONG WITH
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AGAIN
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT
VISIBILITIES COULD LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 00Z. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS OUR TAF SITES THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY. THESE
STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 40
MPH. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WL BE LIKELY IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW. SOME PATCHY FOG WL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ON TUES INTO WEDS...ESPECIALLY TAF SITES THAT
RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS AFTN/EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACRS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES.
A CLRING TREND DEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY...WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT PATCHY FOG/BR POSSIBLE BTWN 08-12Z
EACH MORNING AT SLK/MPV.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...EVENSON/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
111 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ANTECEDENT DRY WEATHER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT. FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY
LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY SUMMER NORMALS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT TUESDAY...I`VE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND REMOVED
MENTION OF OVERNIGHT THUNDER WITH THIS UPDATE. WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...HOWEVER EXAMINATION OF
00Z BUF ALB AND DTX RAOBS REVEALS AN AIRMASS WITH NO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THAT IS LIKELY ACCOMPANYING THE AREA OF SHOWERS NOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LAKE ONTARIO. THUS FELT JUSTIFIED IN
REMOVING MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
FEEL THAT THE HRRR AND BTV-4 HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON PRESENT AREA
OF SHOWERS...AND BASED ON THESE DATA HAVE ALSO INDICATED SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWER WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND REST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TOWARDS MORNING.
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID NIGHT COMPARED TO PRIOR
EVENINGS WITH DEWPOINTS ON THE RISE AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT MONDAY...INCLEMENT 36-48 HOUR STRETCH OF WEATHER
THEN EXPECTED DURING TUE/WED AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTHEAST AND A
SLOWLY PROGRESSING COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION.
MODELS GENERALLY ON BOARD SHOWING THE FRONT SLOWING AS IT
PROGRESSES INTO NY/NEW ENGLAND AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. OF COURSE THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AS SOLUTIONS
HAVE A VARIETY OF IDEAS ON WHERE BEST FORCING SETS UP AND THE
DEGREE TO WHICH IT DRIVES THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.
COORDINATION WITH WPC SUGGESTS A BLENDED APPROACH THE BEST ROUTE
AT THIS POINT...WHICH WILL ACT TO DAMPEN THE MORE ROBUST
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS UNTIL WE CAN GET A BETTER GAGE
ON HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION (PWATS 1-75 TO 2.00 IN) PRIOR IDEA OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL STILL APPEARS QUITE REASONABLE AT THIS POINT...THOUGH
WITH RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD AND/OR RIVER FLOODING APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT PBL
INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY MODEST AT BEST AND WITH PREVALENCE OF
CLOUD COVER THIS SHOULD INHIBIT HIGHER-END UPDRAFT STRENGTH BY AND
LARGE. HIGHS TOMORROW SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A TAD COOLER IN
THE SLV...THEN GENERALLY 70S FOR WEDNESDAY WITH PREVALENCE OF
CLOUDS/PCPN. LOWS REMAINING MILD TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S...LOCALLY NEAR 70 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FRONT CLEARS SLOWLY OFFSHORE WITH ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING WEST TO EAST THROUGH TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES
SEASONABLE...MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE LONG TERM PATTERN WL FEATURE
BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS THE SE CONUS BY THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROGRESSIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. IN ADDITION...A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS LIKELY BY
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH THE CHCS FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS.
FOR THURSDAY...HAVE NOTED A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF SFC BOUNDARY
ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING MID LVL RH. WL
HOLD ONTO A CHC OF SHOWERS ACRS THE CT RIVER VALLEY/PARTS OF
CENTRAL VT THRU 15Z...BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE FA. SFC HIGH
PRES AND BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WL KEEP FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY DRY WITH
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS EMBEDDED 5H VORT RIDES ACRS THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE...BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING...SO WL
KEEP POPS <15% ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS START BTWN 10-12C FOR
THURS/FRIDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE L70S MTNS TO NEAR 80F
WARMER VALLEYS. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLW WL HELP ADVECT WARMER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARMING BTWN 14-16C. THIS WL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. BOTH GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW BUILDING RIDGE ACRS
THE EASTERN CONUS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARM/HUMID AIRMASS
BUILDING ACRS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES
AND SUBSEQUENTLY PASSES THROUGH REGION. HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN VFR. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...BUT ACTIVITY
WILL DECAY OVER TIME. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM 06Z-15Z ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK TAF SITES AND 10Z-15Z IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL
VERMONT. RUT WILL LIKELY SEE NO IMPACT AT ALL. EVEN IN RAIN
SHOWERS...CONDITIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST LATER TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN (AND
POTENTIAL BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS) AND GUSTY WINDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH TIME...ESPECIALLY AT BTV WHERE GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AND UP TO 27 KNOTS LATER TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE GUSTS WILL TOP OUT 18-23 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS OUR TAF SITES THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY. THESE
STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 40
MPH. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WL BE LIKELY IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW. SOME PATCHY FOG WL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ON TUES INTO WEDS...ESPECIALLY TAF SITES THAT
RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS AFTN/EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACRS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES.
A CLRING TREND DEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY...WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT PATCHY FOG/BR POSSIBLE BTWN 08-12Z
EACH MORNING AT SLK/MPV.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1024 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND STALL OVER THE
REGION INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...NOTHING ON RADAR WITHIN THE CWA AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL MOVING
THROUGH RAH AND AKQ`S FORECAST AREA. COVERAGE HAS BEEN SLOWLY
DIMINISHING BUT HAVE NOTED AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITHIN THE LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE RAH CWA.
THEREFORE...FEEL THERE IS STILL SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WITHIN THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA. DECIDED TO KEEP CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH BY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING SOME CLOUD COVER WITH IT. FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE HOURLY
TEMP/DEW POINT AND CLOUD COVER TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS FORECAST...CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING AS SFC
BASED HEATING DIMINISHES AND LIMITED FORCING ALOFT. STILL SEEING
ISOLATED PULSE TYPE SHOWERS POPPING UP BUT THEY HAVE BEEN SHORT-
LIVED. WILL BE WATCHING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
TRIANGLE...ASSOC WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...AS THEY PUSH
EASTWARD. MOST MESO-MODELS INCL HRRR HAVE THESE SHOWERS
DIMINISHING AS THEY PUSH INTO EASTERN NC BUT THE 12Z SPC WRF-NMM
INDICATES SHOWERS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND 01-06Z.
WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT...WILL KEEP LOW END CHANCE POPS BUT
THEY ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING A DIURNALLY UNFAVORABLE
TIME. LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE ACROSS THE COAST THU. THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA SHOULD HAVE THE LOWEST POPS...BUT STILL
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. AGAIN FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO GFS MOS FOR TEMPS...WITH HIGHS STILL REACHING AROUND 90
TO EVEN LOWER 90S INLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP TO NEAR THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL LINGER IN
THE REGION INTO SUNDAY. AT THE MID-LEVELS...A WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING
AND THE MODEL QPF IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER. WILL HAVE 30-40 PCT
POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERING INLAND. WILL HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES TUESDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING INLAND.
CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...FAIRLY
NORMAL VALUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S AND LOWS LOW/MID 70S. WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER THICKNESS
VALUES...EXPECT MORE LOW/MID 90S BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS TROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WITH ANY
HEAVIER CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP.
SEEING LIMITED SHOWERS ON RADAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
SFC HEATING BEGINNING TO WEAKEN INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS ACROSS THE TRIANGLE REGION ASSOC WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH MAY PUSH INTO EASTERN NC THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST MESO-MODELS WEAKEN THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE INTO EASTERN NC BUT THE WRF-NMM KEEPS THE
LINE TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ACROSS RTES BETWEEN 01-06Z. KEEPING VCSH
THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT BUT REMOVED MENTION OF
THUNDER AS INSTABILITY IS DIMINISHING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT TO A POSITION NEAR
THE COAST THURS MORNING WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING DRYING INTO
WESTERN SECTIONS AND BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES EXPECTED TO BE EAST
OF THE TERMINALS.
LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A DECENT
COVERAGE OF SCATTERED TSTMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WILL RETURN TO A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL
CONVECTIVE REGIME...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND
PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF REDUCTION
TO MVFR IN ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 PM WED...NO CHANGED MADE. SFC AND BUOY OBS SHOWING S/SW
WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. MARINE FORECAST IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH LIMITED CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WILL
BE EXPERIENCED ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH SEAS
RUNNING 3 TO 5 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL/SRN WTRS. SEAS SHLD DROP
BELOW 5 FT AS WINDS DIMINISH IN THE MORNING...BUT REMAIN AROUND 15
KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS.
LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL VEER TO NE/E OVER NORTHERN WATERS AND BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING E/SE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY. PER LATEST
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE...SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT
RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSB
NEAR TERM...SK/LEP
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/SK/LEP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
849 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND STALL OVER THE
REGION INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 8 PM WED...CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING AS SFC
BASED HEATING DIMINISHES AND LIMITED FORCING ALOFT. STILL SEEING
ISOLATED PULSE TYPE SHOWERS POPPING UP BUT THEY HAVE BEEN SHORT-
LIVED. WILL BE WATCHING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
TRIANGLE...ASSOC WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...AS THEY PUSH
EASTWARD. MOST MESO-MODELS INCL HRRR HAVE THESE SHOWERS
DIMINISHING AS THEY PUSH INTO EASTERN NC BUT THE 12Z SPC WRF-NMM
INDICATES SHOWERS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM AROUND 01-06Z.
WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT...WILL KEEP LOW END CHANCE POPS BUT
THEY ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING A DIURNALLY UNFAVORABLE
TIME. LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA EXPECT
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE ACROSS THE COAST THU. THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA SHOULD HAVE THE LOWEST POPS...BUT STILL
CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. AGAIN FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO GFS MOS FOR TEMPS...WITH HIGHS STILL REACHING AROUND 90
TO EVEN LOWER 90S INLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP TO NEAR THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL LINGER IN
THE REGION INTO SUNDAY. AT THE MID-LEVELS...A WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING
AND THE MODEL QPF IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER. WILL HAVE 30-40 PCT
POPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERING INLAND. WILL HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES TUESDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING INLAND.
CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...FAIRLY
NORMAL VALUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S AND LOWS LOW/MID 70S. WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER THICKNESS
VALUES...EXPECT MORE LOW/MID 90S BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS TROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WITH ANY
HEAVIER CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP.
SEEING LIMITED SHOWERS ON RADAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
SFC HEATING BEGINNING TO WEAKEN INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS ACROSS THE TRIANGLE REGION ASSOC WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH MAY PUSH INTO EASTERN NC THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST MESO-MODELS WEAKEN THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE INTO EASTERN NC BUT THE WRF-NMM KEEPS THE
LINE TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ACROSS RTES BETWEEN 01-06Z. KEEPING VCSH
THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT BUT REMOVED MENTION OF
THUNDER AS INSTABILITY IS DIMINISHING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT TO A POSITION NEAR
THE COAST THURS MORNING WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING DRYING INTO
WESTERN SECTIONS AND BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES EXPECTED TO BE EAST
OF THE TERMINALS.
LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A DECENT
COVERAGE OF SCATTERED TSTMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WILL RETURN TO A MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL
CONVECTIVE REGIME...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND
PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF REDUCTION
TO MVFR IN ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 830 PM WED...SFC AND BUOY OBS SHOWING S/SW WINDS AROUND
10-20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. MARINE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
LIMITED CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WILL
BE EXPERIENCED ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WITH SEAS
RUNNING 3 TO 5 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL/SRN WTRS. SEAS SHLD DROP
BELOW 5 FT AS WINDS DIMINISH IN THE MORNING...BUT REMAIN AROUND 15
KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS.
LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO NEAR OR
JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL VEER TO NE/E OVER NORTHERN WATERS AND BECOME MORE NORTHWEST
FOR A PERIOD FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING E/SE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY. PER LATEST
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE...SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT
RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSB
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...CTC/RSB/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
748 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO OUR REGION FROM OFFSHORE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE AWAY TODAY...AND YIELD TO A SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 740 AM TUESDAY...
SHORTWAVE MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...AND
1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WILL BOTH
DRIFT EAST AND LOSE INFLUENCE OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY. A ROUGHLY EAST-
WEST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS IN THE H7-925 LAYER OVER THE SAVANNAH
BASIN...WHICH INCLUDES THE OLD LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE THAT CROSSED
CENTRAL NC OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NC
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE/LIFT/MOISTURE POOLING WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SC NORTHWARD INTO THE
NC SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN-WESTERN NC PIEDMONT AS EARLY AS LATE
MORNING PER LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE. GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY LOW-MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW A MULTI-CELL CLUSTER
OR TWO TO PROPAGATE NORTH...IN A PROGRESSIVELY WEAKENING
STATE...ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PIEDMONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 5.25-5.5 C/KM AND ASSOCIATED WEAK MLCAPE OF
1500 J/KG AND MOSTLY LESS...AND WEAK FLOW THROUGHOUT THE
TROPOSPHERE...WILL LIMIT STORM INTENSITY; SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. GENERALLY PERSISTENCE HIGH TEMPS...EXCEPT UP TO A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF MON IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...IN THE
MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THROUGH
AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LINGERING WEAK INSTABILITY AND
MINIMAL CINH OVER CENTRAL NC...AS WELL AS THE APPROACH OF AN MCV
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...WARRANT A
SLIGHT-SMALL CHANCE A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...WITH AREAS OF STRATUS LIKELY TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS INVOF THE MS RIVER THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST...ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS WITH ASSOCIATED
10-20 METER MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...WED-WED NIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE LEE LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC/VA WED AFTERNOON AND
INTO EASTERN NC/VA WED NIGHT. THE LEE TROUGH AND OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AROUND
20 KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW AND COLD POOL MERGERS WILL THEN SUPPORT A
GENERAL ENE PROPAGATION OF MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS ACROSS CENTRAL NC
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK - LESS THAN 5.75 C/KM - STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS...PARTICULARLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE MORE ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/COLD POOLS. STORMS SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE
TROUGH AXIS OVERNIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT TO
3 AM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. LOWS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL TREND
DOWNWARD ON THURSDAY...AND REMAIN BELOW CLIMO ON FRIDAY...AS THE SFC
BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING BY TO OUR
EAST AND NORTHEAST (24 HOUR CLIMO POP FOR CENTRAL NC IS AROUND 30
PERCENT). RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY
WILL BE THURSDAY...BECAUSE BY LATE FRIDAY...THE SFC TROUGH WILL
BECOME REFOCUSED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND PWAT WILL BE BACK ON THE
INCREASE.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE TO OR ABOVE
CLIMO...AS A BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY REMAINS INVOF OUR CWA...AND AMPLE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN POOLED ACROSS THE AREA. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT DURING THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...BULK SHEAR ISN`T THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY MAY BE PLENTIFUL AND WE CAN NEVER RULE OUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE TSTM THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BULK SHEAR PARAMETERS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME.
AS FOR TEMPS...LATEST MEX SHOWS TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS NEAR 70.
HOWEVER...FORECAST LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
(1410-1420M)...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE FOR THIS TIME. TEMPS SHOULD TREND COOLER LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN
CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 748 AM TUESDAY...
SSE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...IN RETURN FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE...HAS RESULTED IN SCT TO BKN MVFR RANGE CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING THAT WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...MAINLY AT
KINT/KGSO/KFAY/KRDU...BEFORE LIFTING ABOVE 3000 FT WITH HEATING. IN
ADDITION...A CLUSTER OR TWO OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH
INTO CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE APT TO LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT OWING TO THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES ALOFT. CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION
AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL IS LOW - RELATIVELY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. - BUT WITH A RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT
KFAY...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE
MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS ARE APT TO
REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED.
OUTLOOK: A GOOD CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS AREA-WIDE ON
WED AND FRI...WITH LESSER CHANCES...MAINLY AT EASTERN TERMINALS...ON
THU.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
634 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS IN THE DAYS
AHEAD...ACCOMPANIED BY DEVELOPMENT OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH. THIS
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES RISING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED WITH THE DAYBREAK
UPDATE TO SHIFT THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO INCLUDE MORNING
HOURS. REPORTS FROM A LOCAL HAM OPERATOR INDICATE RAIN-RATES
BENEATH THE HEAVIER CELLS IS OVER 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR. THUS FAR
THE CELLS HAVE SHOWN A SLOW DRIFT NORTH. NO OTHER CHANGES...SOME
AREAS WILL GET NOTABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY. THE PREVIOUS
MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA IS NOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
IS DISCERNIBLE WITH SHOWERS IGNITING ALONG IT WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS FEATURE WILL INFLUENCE NEAR
TERM WEATHER BRINGING INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE WHICH MAY SHIFT CONVECTION FARTHER WEST IN THE MIDDLE
AND LATE AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS POOLED ACROSS SC AND THIS
IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS WILL RESIDE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
DAY.
OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AS PRECIPITABLE
WATERS RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES WITH SOMEWHAT OF A SLUGGISH STORM
MOTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME
OVER CONFINED LOCATIONS. STORMS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY SOUTH TO
NORTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE JUNE.
AS RETURN FLOW GEARS UP...MINIMUMS INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN BALMY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYBREAK JUNE 25TH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
KEEP THE PERIOD ACTIVE WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH BEING
PROMINENT FEATURES. THE REMAINS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA LATER WED INTO THU BUT THIS FEATURE WILL BE VERY WEAK BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE AREA...LACKING ANY MID LEVEL PUSH. THE BOUNDARY
MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT AND AS A
RESULT WILL CARRY MENTIONABLE POP WED INTO THU. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE DEEP MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WED LINGER OVER 2
INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD
TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION. PROFILES DO NOT SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE THREAT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM.
STORM MOTIONS AROUND 10 KT WILL INCREASE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL.
PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE ON THU WITH MID
LEVEL FLOW TURNING WESTERLY. THIS WILL CAUSE A DROP IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO FOR
LATE JUNE. MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL AFFECT STORM COVERAGE BUT STILL
THINK CHC POP IS WARRANTED. AS IS THE CASE ON WED THE SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE BUT STORM MOTIONS COULD BE WELL UNDER
10 MPH. ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE IS LESS THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL
AGAIN POSE A FLOODING THREAT.
HIGHS WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO...LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT ON FRI WILL TRANSITION
TO GRADUAL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND START OF
NEXT WEEK. WEAK NATURE OF THE RIDGE LATE IN THE PERIOD LIMITS AMOUNT
OF SUBSIDENCE/DRYING...IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD. VALUES WILL RANGE FROM
1.7 TO 2 INCHES FRI THROUGH MON...ABOVE CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AT THE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP WARM MOIST AIR
INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND UNDER THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIMITED
CAPPING WILL KEEP SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH ACTIVE EACH DAY.
PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE LATER IN THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO SOME
REDUCTION IN COVERAGE AND POP WILL SHOW A GENERAL DECREASING TREND
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WITH RAIN DURING THE LATE EVENING VISIBILITIES WILL
START TO COME DOWN AT LBT TO MVFR WITH THE OTHER TERMINALS AT VFR
FOR NOW. HAVE MENTION OF MVFR AT OTHER TERMINALS AS LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OFF THE COAST WORK THEIR WAY TO THE COAST. HIGH RESOLUTION
WRF AND HRRR SHOW PRECIPITATION WORKING ONTO THE COAST OF SC AND
MOVING INTO THE MYRTLES BEFORE SUNRISE AND INTO ILM AFTER SUNRISE.
MODELS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON LAST NIGHTS PRECIPITATION SO WILL PAY
ATTENTION AND INTRODUCE THE PRECIPITATION. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE
FROM THE 00Z TAFS AND HAVE ALSO MENTION CONVECTION ACROSS THE
INLAND TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. POPS HAVE INCREASED
FROM THESE MODELS AND MOIST FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDRY TO OUR SOUTH AND A WEAK VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD ALL INTERACT TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TERMINALS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH NO REAL GOOD FEEL ON WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR. WINDS WILL
VEER FROM THE E TO THE SE ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE
MORNING WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT REACHING THE INLAND TERMINALS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ENHANCING LIFT AND MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...THERE IS A WATERSPOUT RISK MAINLY THIS
MORNING OVER THE WATERS BENEATH STRONG SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DOT
THE WATERS AS WINDS VEER TO SE AND S-SW TONIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH COULD TRIP OFF A FEW TSTMS OVER THE WATERS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. REMEMBER THAT WINDS AS WELL AS WAVES ARE LOCALLY
HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED. SEAS MAINLY 2-3
FEET IN A MIX OF E-ESE WAVES 2 FT EVERY 5-6 SECONDS...AND ESE
WAVES 1.5 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED GUSTS TO 20 KT INSHORE BETWEEN 3PM-6PM.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS WED AS PIEDMONT TROUGH
STRENGTHENS AND BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS WILL BE A SOLID 15 KT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20 KT LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU AND
DISSIPATES. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT AND SPEEDS WILL DROP
CLOSER TO 10 KT ON THU. SEA BREEZE WILL AGAIN DEVELOP WITH SOLID 15
KT POSSIBLE NEAR SHORE. SEAS BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT WED INTO WED NIGHT
WILL DROP BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT ON THU.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 TO 15 KT EACH DAY. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY SHORT PERIOD SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MAC/MJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
337 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS IN THE DAYS
AHEAD...ACCOMPANIED BY DEVELOPMENT OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH. THIS
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES RISING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
OF THE AREA IS NOW LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND IS DISCERNIBLE WITH SHOWERS IGNITING ALONG IT
WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS FEATURE
WILL INFLUENCE NEAR TERM WEATHER BRINGING INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL
INTERACT WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WHICH MAY SHIFT CONVECTION
FARTHER WEST IN THE MIDDLE AND LATE AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE
IS POOLED ACROSS SC AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS WILL RESIDE
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY.
OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AS PRECIPITABLE
WATERS RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES WITH SOMEWHAT OF A SLUGGISH STORM
MOTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME
OVER CONFINED LOCATIONS. STORMS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY SOUTH TO
NORTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE JUNE.
AS RETURN FLOW GEARS UP...MINIMUMS INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN BALMY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYBREAK JUNE 25TH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
KEEP THE PERIOD ACTIVE WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH BEING
PROMINENT FEATURES. THE REMAINS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA LATER WED INTO THU BUT THIS FEATURE WILL BE VERY WEAK BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE AREA...LACKING ANY MID LEVEL PUSH. THE BOUNDARY
MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT AND AS A
RESULT WILL CARRY MENTIONABLE POP WED INTO THU. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE DEEP MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WED LINGER OVER 2
INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD
TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION. PROFILES DO NOT SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE THREAT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM.
STORM MOTIONS AROUND 10 KT WILL INCREASE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL.
PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE ON THU WITH MID
LEVEL FLOW TURNING WESTERLY. THIS WILL CAUSE A DROP IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO FOR
LATE JUNE. MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL AFFECT STORM COVERAGE BUT STILL
THINK CHC POP IS WARRANTED. AS IS THE CASE ON WED THE SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE BUT STORM MOTIONS COULD BE WELL UNDER
10 MPH. ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE IS LESS THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL
AGAIN POSE A FLOODING THREAT.
HIGHS WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO...LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT ON FRI WILL TRANSITION
TO GRADUAL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND START OF
NEXT WEEK. WEAK NATURE OF THE RIDGE LATE IN THE PERIOD LIMITS AMOUNT
OF SUBSIDENCE/DRYING...IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD. VALUES WILL RANGE FROM
1.7 TO 2 INCHES FRI THROUGH MON...ABOVE CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AT THE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP WARM MOIST AIR
INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND UNDER THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIMITED
CAPPING WILL KEEP SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH ACTIVE EACH DAY.
PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE LATER IN THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO SOME
REDUCTION IN COVERAGE AND POP WILL SHOW A GENERAL DECREASING TREND
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WITH RAIN DURING THE LATE EVENING VISIBILITIES WILL
START TO COME DOWN AT LBT TO MVFR WITH THE OTHER TERMINALS AT VFR
FOR NOW. HAVE MENTION OF MVFR AT OTHER TERMINALS AS LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OFF THE COAST WORK THEIR WAY TO THE COAST. HIGH RESOLUTION
WRF AND HRRR SHOW PRECIPITATION WORKING ONTO THE COAST OF SC AND
MOVING INTO THE MYRTLES BEFORE SUNRISE AND INTO ILM AFTER SUNRISE.
MODELS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON LAST NIGHTS PRECIPITATION SO WILL PAY
ATTENTION AND INTRODUCE THE PRECIPITATION. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE
FROM THE 00Z TAFS AND HAVE ALSO MENTION CONVECTION ACROSS THE
INLAND TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. POPS HAVE INCREASED
FROM THESE MODELS AND MOIST FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDRY TO OUR SOUTH AND A WEAK VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD ALL INTERACT TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TERMINALS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH NO REAL GOOD FEEL ON WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR. WINDS WILL
VEER FROM THE E TO THE SE ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE
MORNING WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT REACHING THE INLAND TERMINALS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ENHANCING LIFT AND MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SHOWERS WILL DOT THE WATERS AS WINDS VEER
TO SE AND S-SW TONIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH COULD TRIP
OFF A FEW TSTMS OVER THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. REMEMBER
THAT WINDS AS WELL AS WAVES ARE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.
NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FEET IN A MIX OF E-ESE
WAVES 2 FT EVERY 5-6 SECONDS...AND ESE WAVES 1.5 FEET EVERY 9-10
SECONDS. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED GUSTS TO
20 KT INSHORE BETWEEN 3PM-6PM.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS WED AS PIEDMONT TROUGH
STRENGTHENS AND BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS WILL BE A SOLID 15 KT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20 KT LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU AND
DISSIPATES. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT AND SPEEDS WILL DROP
CLOSER TO 10 KT ON THU. SEA BREEZE WILL AGAIN DEVELOP WITH SOLID 15
KT POSSIBLE NEAR SHORE. SEAS BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT WED INTO WED NIGHT
WILL DROP BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT ON THU.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 TO 15 KT EACH DAY. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY SHORT PERIOD SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MAC/MJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
240 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO OUR REGION FROM OFFSHORE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE AWAY TODAY...AND YIELD TO A SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM MONDAY...
CONVECTION IS STILL DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ADVANCING SEABREEZE THIS EVENING... OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN SANDHILLS.
HOWEVER... IT IS BEGINNING TO WANE IN COVERAGE ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN REACHES THIS EVENING.... WHICH MATCHES UP WELL
WITH THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE BEST LINGERING
INSTABILITY REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.... WHERE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THE LONGEST... LATE EVENING/VERY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO RETREAT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL YIELD A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC FIRST THEN
SPREADING EASTWARD. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST (NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR NORTHEAST PIEDMONT) MAY SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT THOUGH. MEANWHILE... THE MID LEVEL S/W RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT... POSSIBLY ALLOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO/ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR IS SHOWING THIS FEATURE... COUPLED
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW... HELPING TO
DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT.
GIVEN THE TIME OF NIGHT WITH THE RAP SHOWING FURTHER STABILIZATION
ACROSS OUR AREA AND TO THE WEST... CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW OF SEEING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT (WHEN THE RAP AND HRRR
SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING). THUS... WILL JUST ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO OUR WESTERN PIEDMONT AT THIS TIME IN THE 04-11Z TIME
FRAME. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE NEAR THE MID 60S
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 70 FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IT`S WEAK SURFACE FRONT
REFLECTION WILL PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE MS VALLEY AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA...WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EJECTING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COULD POSSIBLY PROVIDE SOME
WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT IN CONCERT WITH INCREASINGLY BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN OVERSPREADS THE AREA WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. HIGHEST POPS
SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...LOWEST IN THE
NORTHEAST. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST
DESTABILIZATION OF 1000-1500 J/KG...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE TOO
LOW/ISOLATED TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE HWO.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. LOWS 68 TO 72.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL TREND
DOWNWARD ON THURSDAY...AND REMAIN BELOW CLIMO ON FRIDAY...AS THE SFC
BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING BY TO OUR
EAST AND NORTHEAST (24 HOUR CLIMO POP FOR CENTRAL NC IS AROUND 30
PERCENT). RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY
WILL BE THURSDAY...BECAUSE BY LATE FRIDAY...THE SFC TROUGH WILL
BECOME REFOCUSED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND PWAT WILL BE BACK ON THE
INCREASE.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE TO OR ABOVE
CLIMO...AS A BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY REMAINS INVOF OUR CWA...AND AMPLE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN POOLED ACROSS THE AREA. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT DURING THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...BULK SHEAR ISN`T THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY MAY BE PLENTIFUL AND WE CAN NEVER RULE OUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE TSTM THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BULK SHEAR PARAMETERS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME.
AS FOR TEMPS...LATEST MEX SHOWS TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS NEAR 70.
HOWEVER...FORECAST LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
(1410-1420M)...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE FOR THIS TIME. TEMPS SHOULD TREND COOLER LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN
CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUESDAY...
SSE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...IN RETURN FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE...WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SCT TO BKN MVFR RANGE
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...MAINLY AT KINT/KGSO/KFAY/KRDU...WHILE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KRWI DUE
TO LOCAL/RIVER BASIN/DRAINAGE EFFECTS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY AREAS NEAR THE SC BORDER...INCLUDING
IN THE VICINITY OF KFAY...THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: STRATUS PROBABLE LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED. A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS AREA-WIDE ON WED AND FRI...WITH LESSER
CHANCES...MAINLY AT EASTERN TERMINALS...ON THU.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
223 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO OUR REGION FROM OFFSHORE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE AWAY TODAY...AND YIELD TO A SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM MONDAY...
CONVECTION IS STILL DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ADVANCING SEABREEZE THIS EVENING... OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN SANDHILLS.
HOWEVER... IT IS BEGINNING TO WANE IN COVERAGE ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN REACHES THIS EVENING.... WHICH MATCHES UP WELL
WITH THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE BEST LINGERING
INSTABILITY REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.... WHERE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THE LONGEST... LATE EVENING/VERY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO RETREAT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL YIELD A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC FIRST THEN
SPREADING EASTWARD. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST (NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR NORTHEAST PIEDMONT) MAY SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT THOUGH. MEANWHILE... THE MID LEVEL S/W RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT... POSSIBLY ALLOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO/ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR IS SHOWING THIS FEATURE... COUPLED
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW... HELPING TO
DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT.
GIVEN THE TIME OF NIGHT WITH THE RAP SHOWING FURTHER STABILIZATION
ACROSS OUR AREA AND TO THE WEST... CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW OF SEEING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT (WHEN THE RAP AND HRRR
SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING). THUS... WILL JUST ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO OUR WESTERN PIEDMONT AT THIS TIME IN THE 04-11Z TIME
FRAME. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE NEAR THE MID 60S
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 70 FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IT`S WEAK SURFACE FRONT
REFLECTION WILL PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE MS VALLEY AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA...WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EJECTING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COULD POSSIBLY PROVIDE SOME
WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT IN CONCERT WITH INCREASINGLY BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN OVERSPREADS THE AREA WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. HIGHEST POPS
SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...LOWEST IN THE
NORTHEAST. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST
DESTABILIZATION OF 1000-1500 J/KG...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE TOO
LOW/ISOLATED TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE HWO.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. LOWS 68 TO 72.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR PRECIP IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OVER
THE REGION...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THE BEST
FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT GIVEN THE BETTER (ALBEIT
WEAK) SUPPORT ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...LIKELY
PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...AS WELL AS WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE RATHER LIMITED DESPITE THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS... LEADING TO DECREASED CONFIDENCE.
OVERALL...RIDGING ALOFT (ALTHOUGH RATHER FLAT) IS PROGGED TO BUILD
BACK OVER THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING TO OCCUR. NEVERTHELESS...MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES...ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS. DETAILS IN THE MID/UPPER PATTERN
BECOMES EVEN MORE UNCLEAR FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
NEVERTHELESS PRECIP CHANCES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK GIVEN THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AIRMASS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TO START THE
PERIOD WITH LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUESDAY...
SSE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...IN RETURN FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE...WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SCT TO BKN MVFR RANGE
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...MAINLY AT KINT/KGSO/KFAY/KRDU...WHILE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KRWI DUE
TO LOCAL/RIVER BASIN/DRAINAGE EFFECTS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY AREAS NEAR THE SC BORDER...INCLUDING
IN THE VICINITY OF KFAY...THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: STRATUS PROBABLE LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED. A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS AREA-WIDE ON WED AND FRI...WITH LESSER
CHANCES...MAINLY AT EASTERN TERMINALS...ON THU.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
147 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS IN THE DAYS
AHEAD...ACCOMPANIED BY DEVELOPMENT OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH. THIS
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES RISING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH IMPETUS TO KEEP
THE CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE SAME WAS TRUE FOR THE
LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...AND YET SOME CONVECTION MANAGED TO
PERSIST. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST INTO TUE MORNING.
LOOKING AT SATELLITE...RADAR AND PRESSURE TRENDS AND IT LOOKS LIKE
THE RIDGE...CENTERED TO OUR NE...HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO MOVE OUT.
MOISTURE RETURN HAS ALREADY BEGUN AS FRONT TO OUR S HAS ALL BUT
DISSIPATED. THERE HAS BEEN PLENTY OF HEAVY RAIN WELL TO OUR S TODAY
AND EVEN ACROSS OUR AREA...EVEN AT THIS HOUR...THERE IS SOME HEAVY
RAIN FALLING ACROSS SMALL PORTIONS OF ROBESON...DILLON AND MARLBORO
COUNTIES.
SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS AND
INDICATING ISOLATED CONVECTION BUILDING BACK TO THE N WHILE ALSO
MOVING IN FROM OFF THE WATER OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE ACCEPTED THESE
TRENDS AND ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...
THERE WILL BE MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TONIGHT WHICH WILL
NOT ALLOW FOR AS MUCH COOLING AS WE EARLIER THOUGHT. THUS...LOWS
HAVE BEEN RAISED TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S AT THE
BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MOISTURE FOCUSED ALONG LINGERING FRONT TO
THE SOUTH WILL RETURN NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND DEEPER RETURN FLOW SETS UP BETWEEN DEVELOPING LEE
SIDE TROUGH INLAND AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFF SHORE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THIS DEEPER MOISTER RETURN FLOW WILL BRING PCP WATER VALUES
UP AROUND 2 INCHES BY TUES AFTN. THIS WILL LEAD TO GREATER
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH BETTER CHC OF LOCALIZED SHWRS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ALONG CONVERGENT SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY...PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND ANY OTHER BOUNDARIES THAT
DEVELOP. THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE MAY HOLD OVER AREA THROUGH TUES
BEFORE SLIPPING OFF SHORE BY WED. THIS SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT
STRONGER CONVECTION THROUGH TUES. GFS SHOWS A MINOR PERTURBATION
RIDING THROUGH EARLIER ON WED AND THEN SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT FOR
WED AFTN. ALWAYS TOUGH TO TIME THESE FINE FEATURES. FOR NOW THINKING
IS THAT WE SHOULD SEE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER INLAND AND SC AS
WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SE-S THROUGH THE DAY ON TUES. BY WED A
BETTER SW-W RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO GREATER CHC
OF SHWRS/TSTMS CLOSER TO THE COAST INITIALLY IN A MORE PINNED SEA
BREEZE AND THEN CARRIED EAST INTO OUR AREA LATER IN THE DAY FROM
PIEDMONT TROUGH ACTIVITY. OVERALL EXPECT GREATER CHC OF CONVECTION
THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE GREATER NE ON SHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER NEAR THE COAST ON TUES WITH TEMPS WARMEST OVER
INLAND SC...UP AROUND 90. BY WED...THE W-SW COMPONENT TO FLOW WILL
HELP TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD TEMPS CLOSER TO 90.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...PERSISTENCE THE RULE DURING THE EXTENDED AS
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL FLOW
PRODUCE WARM AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE
WILL CONTINUOUSLY PUMP WARM/MOIST SW RETURN FLOW INTO THE
CAROLINAS...WHILE ZONAL-FLOW-TRANSITIONING-TO-RIDGING ALOFT WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. MEX NUMBERS FLUCTUATE BY ONLY 1-2
DEGREES THE ENTIRE LONG TERM...HENCE THE PERSISTENCE FORECAST...AND
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S
EACH DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THU/FRI WILL FEATURE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS...BEFORE SOME SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEGINS TO LIMIT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR THE WKND. WILL NOTE THAT THE ECMWF/GFS
DIVERGE BY 180 DEGREES IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WKND AS THE
FORMER DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS A NEW
SOLUTION AND NOT SUPPORTED...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE EXTENDED
MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WITH RAIN DURING THE LATE EVENING VISIBILITIES WILL
START TO COME DOWN AT LBT TO MVFR WITH THE OTHER TERMINALS AT VFR
FOR NOW. HAVE MENTION OF MVFR AT OTHER TERMINALS AS LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OFF THE COAST WORK THEIR WAY TO THE COAST. HIGH RESOLTION
WRF AND HRRR SHOW PRECIPITATION WORKING ONTO THE COAST OF SC AND
MOVING INTO THE MYRTLES BEFORE SUNRISE AND INTO ILM AFTER SUNRISE.
MODELS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON LAST NIGHTS PRECIPITATION SO WILL PAY
ATTENTION AND INTRODUCE THE PRECIPITATION. THIS IS A BIG CHNAGE
FROM THE 00Z TAFS AND HAVE ALSO MENTION CONVECTION ACROSS THE
INLAND TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. POPS HAVE INCREASED
FROM THESE MODELS AND MOIST FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDRY TO OUR SOUTH AND A WEAK VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD ALL INTERACT TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TERMINALS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH NO REAL GOOD FEEL ON WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR. WINDS WILL
VEER FROM THE E TO THE SE ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE
MORNING WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT REACHING THE INLAND TERMINALS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ENHANCING LIFT AND MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NE WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL BE E TO ESE
INTO TUE MORNING. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS...SUSTAINED UP TO 15 KT
LATE THIS EVE...WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS BY MORNING.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST
AS PIEDMONT TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA
HIGH REMAINS OFF TO THE EAST. ON SHORE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
OVER THE WATERS EARLY TUE WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH MID WEEK. GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE TUES WITH LAND/SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS
AND OVERALL SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KTS OR LESS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
INCREASE CLOSER TO 15 KT LATER ON WED INTO WED NIGHT AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST AND MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH
INLAND. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT BY WED NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN ITS
LOCAL INFLUENCE INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS CREATES PERSISTENT SW WINDS
OF 10-15 KTS WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A 10 SEC SE
GROUND SWELL WILL SLOWLY AMPLIFY ON THE PROLONGED FETCH AROUND THIS
HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE 2-3 FT SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY
CREATED VIA 5 SEC SW WIND WAVES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD/MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MAC/MJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
346 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR FEATURE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH TONIGHT. FRONT MOVES INTO
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY/ WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER/MORE
MORE STABLE AIR THURSDAY. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INCREASE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 17Z. HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS AND LEANED THAT WAY INITIALLY. THIS GIVES HIGHER
POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ALSO IN SE OHIO/OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...ALTHOUGH HAVE SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. MAIN
DRIVER OF HIGHER POPS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW IS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. SLOWED POPS DOWN A LITTLE
BASED ON 12Z MODELS WITH LIKELY POPS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE THE LIKELY POPS TO OHIO RIVER BY 12Z. THEN
HAVE MAX POPS CROSSING WV LOWLANDS 12Z-18Z...MAXING OUT IN THE
MOUNTAINS 18Z-20Z...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING AS VORT MAX HEADS
EAST. LIKE A TYPICAL SUMMER COLD FRONT...ANTICIPATE THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY TO BE FAIRLY HARD TO PICK OUT AS IT WEAKENS AND MOVES
ACROSS FORECAST AREA...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AND CROSS CWA FROM NW TO
SE 15Z TO 21Z. WITH PWATS AROUND 2.0IN TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING WITH WEATHER. ALSO NOTE THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA FROM WPC. CONSIDERED GOING WITH A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH...BUT IN THE END DECIDED TO HOLD OFF BUT EXPAND
MENTION OF WATER CONCERNS IN HWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA.
MAIN REASON HOLDING BACK ON WATCH AT THIS POINT IS ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED AND BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING STAYS NORTH...KEEPING
CONVECTION A BIT MORE SUBDUED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BOARD AND WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROF STILL SWINGING THRU AT 00Z
THURSDAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...PICTURING A LOT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT
00Z...BUT NOT A LOT OF LIGHTNING.
THE 925 TO 850 MB LOW LEVEL FLOW ALREADY TURNING NICELY TO NORTHWEST
BY 00Z THURSDAY...BUT SURFACE FLOW WEAKENS 00Z TO 06Z THURSDAY.
SO WILL LEAVE HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY
IN WV AND SW VA. WILL MENTION SOME FOG OVER HIGH TERRAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO HAVE US FORECASTING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A
BIT HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE...EVEN THOUGH SOME SITES ALREADY BEING
RAIN COOLED AT SUNSET.
KEEPING THURSDAY DRY FOR MOST OF OUR CWA WITH MORNING CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTH BREAKING UP. WILL TRY TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT THURSDAY
BASED ON THE MORNING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH. DO STILL HAVE 20 POPS
LATE THURSDAY IN SW VA AND PORTION OF NE KY.
OLD FRONT AND DEW POINT GRADIENT...LINGERS DOWN THE OHIO RIVER ON
FRIDAY. WILL NOT JUMP ON THE CMC SOLUTION OF STRONGER MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SWINGING THRU BY 12Z FRIDAY. IN CONTRAST...12Z GFS AND
ECWMF MUCH DRIER. LIKE THE IDEA OF LEAVING OUR POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE FOR FRIDAY...LIFTING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY WENT WITH HPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. REGION SHOULD BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN LATE IN
THE PERIOD. WILL BE SEVERAL MID-LEVEL TROFS THAT COULD INFLUENCE
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...BUT TIMING WILL BE TOUGH. SO...HAVE
TAILORED POPS TO INDICATE MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS.
WPC TEMPS LOOK GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY FOLLOWED.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA...AND
HAVE VCTS IN ALL TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INCLUDED A TEMPO AT
HTS ANTICIPATING THE LINE OF CONVECTION IN EASTERN KY TO ARRIVE
SHORTLY AFTER 21Z. ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO AT EKN FOR CONVECTION IN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WV. EXPECT A DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES DURING THE DAY. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION EXPECT VFR INTO TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR EXPECTED IN ANY
CONVECTION. LAV TRIES TO FOG THINGS IN TONIGHT...AT LEAST
MVFR...BUT THINK WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND STILL SOME LIGHT WIND IT
WILL BE HARD TO GET MUCH FOG. HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
TOMORROW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
VARY. MAY NEED BRIEF IFR AND WIND GUSTS IN STORMS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRATUS/FOG
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR SITES
RECEIVING RAIN.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
210 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR FEATURE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH TONIGHT. FRONT
DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY AS CROSSING CWA. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
EXPECTED THURSDAY. CONVECTION RETURNS FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 17Z. HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS AND LEANED THAT WAY INITIALLY. THIS GIVES HIGHER
POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ALSO IN SE OHIO/OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...ALTHOUGH HAVE SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. MAIN
DRIVER OF HIGHER POPS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW IS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. SLOWED POPS DOWN A LITTLE
BASED ON 12Z MODELS WITH LIKLEY POPS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE THE LIKELY POPS TO OHIO RIVER BY 12Z. THEN
HAVE MAX POPS CROSSING WV LOWLANDS 12Z-18Z...MAXING OUT IN THE
MOUNTAINS 18Z-20Z...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING AS VORT MAX HEADS
EAST. LIKE A TYPICAL SUMMER COLD FRONT...ANTICIPATE THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY TO BE FAIRLY HARD TO PICK OUT AS IT WEAKENS AND MOVES
ACROSS FORECAST AREA...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AND CROSS CWA FROM NW TO
SE 15Z TO 21Z. WITH PWATS AROUND 2.0IN TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING WITH WEATHER. ALSO NOTE THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA FROM WPC. CONSIDERED GOING WITH A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH...BUT IN THE END DECIDED TO HOLD OFF BUT EXPAND
MENTION OF WATER CONCERNS IN HWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA.
MAIN REASON HOLDING BACK ON WATCH AT THIS POINT IS ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED AND BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING STAYS NORTH...KEEPING
CONVECTION A BIT MORE SUBDUED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS ON
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES ALOFT. THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENS
UP AHEAD OF EACH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE THAT ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RIDING NORTH ON LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THE RESULT WILL BE GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH EACH SYSTEM. THERE ARE OF COURSE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF EACH SYSTEM...SO WILL FOLLOW WPC/S
THINKING CLOSELY. ONE SHORT WAVE WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DECREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH MOST CONVECTION SHIFTING INTO THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. EXPECT ALL CONVECTION WILL
END FAIRLY EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. AS FOR THE
FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORT WAVE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT ACTUALLY MAKES IT ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. WHETHER IT DOES OR NOT...THE DRIER AIR ABOVE THE
SURFACE MOVING IN BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE WILL SHUT OFF CONVECTION
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WHAT WILL BE LEFT WILL BE A
FLAT SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY MIX OUT SOMEWHAT WITH AFTERNOON
MIXING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WARM SIDE THURSDAY...IN THE 80S
WITH SUNSHINE...AND STILL SOMEWHAT ON THE HUMID SIDE.
NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING
DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY WENT WITH HPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. REGION SHOULD BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN LATE IN
THE PERIOD. WILL BE SEVERAL MID-LEVEL TROFS THAT COULD INFLUENCE
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...BUT TIMING WILL BE TOUGH. SO...HAVE
TAILORED POPS TO INDICATE MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS.
WPC TEMPS LOOK GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY FOLLOWED.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA...AND
HAVE VCTS IN ALL TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INCLUDED A TEMPO AT
HTS ANTICIPATING THE LINE OF CONVECTION IN EASTERN KY TO ARRIVE
SHORTLY AFTER 21Z. ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO AT EKN FOR CONVECTION IN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WV. EXPECT A DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES DURING THE DAY. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION EXPECT VFR INTO TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR EXPECTED IN ANY
CONVECTION. LAV TRIES TO FOG THINGS IN TONIGHT...AT LEAST
MVFR...BUT THINK WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND STILL SOME LIGHT WIND IT
WILL BE HARD TO GET MUCH FOG. HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
TOMORROW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
VARY. MAY NEED BRIEF IFR AND WIND GUSTS IN STORMS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRATUS/FOG
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR SITES
RECEIVING RAIN.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1142 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR
VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE AT KFYV/KXNA. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY 14-15Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
PRECIP HAS FOR THE MOST PART SHIFTED EAST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
THE REMAINING FEW SHOWERS WERE LOCATED ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ACROSS THE
REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SKIES WERE CLEARING OUT WITH LIGHT
WINDS OBSERVED. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST LOCAL IN-HOUSE
MODEL AND THE HRRR CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN COLORADO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE REGION. THUS...WILL NOT CARRY POPS AFTER 06Z.
THE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
HOWEVER CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO BE POSSIBLE AFTER
THE RECENT RAINS. HAVE EXTENDED THE FOG POTENTIAL A BIT FURTHER
WEST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LOOK TO
BE COOLER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS AND HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW
TWEAKS FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 63 89 67 88 / 10 10 20 30
FSM 65 89 67 90 / 20 10 20 30
MLC 64 89 68 89 / 10 10 20 30
BVO 61 88 64 86 / 10 10 20 30
FYV 60 85 61 85 / 20 10 20 30
BYV 61 85 61 86 / 20 10 20 30
MKO 62 88 66 87 / 10 10 20 30
MIO 61 86 64 86 / 10 10 20 30
F10 63 88 67 87 / 10 10 20 30
HHW 66 89 69 90 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
235 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.AVIATION...
STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING OVER METROPLEX WHERE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LAYING. MCS/MCV APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE
LIFT AND THUS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF MCS. HAVE
ALREADY UPDATED TAFS TO INCLUDE VCTS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TO BUMP TEMPO TIMING UP 2 HOURS FROM 22-0Z/5PM TO
7PM AS MOST LIKELY STORM WINDOW...BUT CELLS THAT DEVELOP OVERHEAD
AN AIRPORT WILL RESULT IN TSRA BEFORE THAT TEMPO WINDOW SO FURTHER
AMENDMENTS LIKELY BASED ON TRENDS. TR.92
.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...
MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND UNFORTUNATELY NO GOOD MODEL GUIDANCE
TO RELY ON FOR THIS FORECAST AS THEY ARE NOT IDENTIFYING WITH THE
CURRENT MCS/MCV BETWEEN LUBBOCK AND ABILENE. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ROUGHLY PARALLEL/ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHERE AN AXIS OF HIGH INSTABILITY RESIDES. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL POP-UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS. ALREADY SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION IS BUILDING UP SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE
METROPLEX...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH FURTHER HEATING
AND INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE MCS/MCV TO THE WEST.
ESSENTIALLY THERE IS PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL
AFFECT THE REGION SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT IT IS A MORE DIFFICULT CALL TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE
STORMS WILL EXTEND AS FAR NORTH INTO THE METROPLEX TAF SITES.
GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF UNCAPPED INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE METROPLEX...IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE A VCTS FORECAST
STARTING AT 21-22Z FOR ANY POP-UP STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THE
MCS TO THE NW WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND REACH THE METROPLEX IN THE
23-02Z WINDOW THIS EVENING FOR INCLUSION OF A TEMPO TSRA THEN.
AT WACO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT MCS WILL REACH THE AREA AROUND
01-03Z AND A TEMPO TSRA IS INDICATED THERE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND UPDATE AS
NECESSARY. OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF STORMS...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.
TR.92
&&
.UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE CWA...MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY IS TO OUR WEST
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS. REGARDING RAIN/STORM
POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...OUR POTENTIAL FOCUSES ON
TWO DIFFERENT AREAS. THE FIRST IS A BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY LIES
ALONG A LINE FROM EMORY TO DFW TO SOUTH OF GRAHAM. THE WINDS NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE WINDS SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY ARE FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY VARY MORE MAKING THE IDENTIFICATION OF THE BOUNDARY
EASIER IN THAT REGARD. DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE
UPPER 60S WITH 70S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE WINDS IN THE
METROPLEX HAVE BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS HOUR WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 70 SUGGESTING MAYBE THIS BOUNDARY IS LIFTING
NORTH SOME. AS TEMPERATURES WARM SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY INTO THE
UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE WITH VALUES UP TO 4000 J/KG IN SOME LOCATIONS. WIND SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE LOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...AND AS DESCRIBED
IN THIS MORNINGS DISCUSSION...STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD QUICKLY
BECOME STRONG/SEVERE BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BE ORGANIZED DUE TO THE
WEAK SHEAR. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
MICROBURST WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN NUISANCE FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING
AS STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10-15 MPH. NEW
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THIS AFTERNOONS STORMS WHICH COULD INCREASE A LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.
THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX OF STORMS CURRENTLY IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TO THE EAST OF LUBBOCK. THIS COMPLEX IS RIDING ITS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND QUICKLY MOVING SOUTHEAST. WE ANTICIPATE THIS
MCS TO REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. DESPITE THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO THIS
SYSTEM...IT IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN ITS COMPOSURE ENOUGH TO REACH
THE CWA BASED ON ITS COLD POOL INTERACTIONS. IN ADDITION...THE MCS
IS HEADING INTO A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH TEXAS WHICH WOULD FAVOR ITS MAINTENANCE LONG
ENOUGH TO REACH NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WHEN THE COMPLEX REACHES OUR
COUNTIES IT COULD BE SEVERE WITH A DAMAGING WIND...HEAVY
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY HAIL THREAT. IN ADDITION...STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX ACROSS AREAS NORTHWEST OF ABILENE.
THIS SUPPORTS AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. THESE NEW STORMS ARE NOT MOVING VERY FAST AND WILL
LIKELY BE ABSORBED BY THE MCS.
FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY AND EVENING WITH 50 POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH
HALVES OF THE CWA. DID NOT ADJUST TEMPERATURES MUCH...BUT HIGH
CLOUD DEBRIS AND AREAS OF RAIN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER IN SOME LOCATIONS.
82/JLD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/
08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN PLACE
FROM SULPHUR SPRINGS TO BURLESON TO BRECKENRIDGE. THERE WERE WEAK
GRADIENTS OF BOTH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WITH COOLER VALUES LOCATED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LOOKING AT THE
GRADIENT OF EITHER TEMPERATURE OR DEW POINT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THIS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OF THETA-E WITH A CHANGE
OF ALMOST 8 KELVIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AS A
RESULT...THINK THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY. IT MAY HOLD SOME
IDENTITY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL IF SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ACCURATE. THE 07Z RAP INDICATED THAT THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDS UP TO THE 850 MB LEVEL WHERE THE THETA-E GRADIENT IS EVEN
MORE PRONOUNCED...SHOWING A THETA-E CHANGE OF 12-16 KELVIN ALONG
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE MAIN POINT OF THIS ANALYSIS
IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS AS THROUGH IT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
REMAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA AS WE APPROACH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
OF THE DAY. IF IT STILL EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON...IT COULD BE A BIG
PLAYER IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION TODAY.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TODAY...ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS IMPORTANT FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY AS MOST GUIDANCE ADVERTISES QPF ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SOMETIME
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF WHEN THIS QPF
SHOWS UP IS THE KEY DIFFERENCE AMONGST THE MODELS. MANY OF THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW QPF OR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. IF
THIS OCCURS...THE CONVECTION THAT IS INITIATED WILL PROBABLY BE
RELATIVELY WEAK IN NATURE AND MAY BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT OVER THE BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED A NICE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. IT`S HARD TO SAY WHETHER THIS
CONVECTION WOULD BE ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE BOUNDARY OR NOT IF IT
DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. IF NOTHING ELSE...IT WILL ADD CLOUDS OVER
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWING DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO
REDUCE THE IDENTITY OF THE BOUNDARY BY WARMING THE COOL SIDE AND
KEEPING THE WARM SIDE SHIELDED FROM SUNSHINE/HEATING. IT`S
PROBABLY FOR THIS REASON THAT MOST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
MEMBERS HAVE MORNING CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.
IF THERE IS LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...THIS BOUNDARY PROBABLY HAS A BETTER CHANCE AT INITIATING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS USUALLY FAIRLY RELIABLE WHEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SIGNAL OF
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG A COMMON BOUNDARY AROUND A COMMON
TIME. THEREFORE...THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE THAT
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING RATHER THAN HOLDING
OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ONLY REASON TO DOUBT SOME OF THE MODELS SHOWING THIS MORNING
CONVECTION IS THE LACK OF RESPONSE IN THE REST OF THE MASS FIELDS
WHERE THE QPF IS LOCATED. THAT IS...SOME POSITIVE QPF SHOWS UP
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THIS SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE...HOWEVER THERE
IS NO INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND NO LOW-LEVEL
RESPONSE IN THE WIND FIELDS. BRINGING MODEL LOGIC INTO THE REAL
WORLD...THAT`S LIKE SAYING...WE`RE GOING TO HAVE RAIN...BUT NO
CLOUDS. IT DOESN`T MAKE SENSE. AS A RESULT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE MODELS ARE SIMPLY PUTTING QPF OUT THERE BECAUSE THERE`S A
BOUNDARY AND WE HAVE SOME MOISTURE AND CAPE IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.
FOR MODELS THAT DO NOT SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...THOSE SOLUTIONS REALLY RAMP UP THE CAPE AND MOISTURE
POOLING SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE MODELS
INDICATE LOWER TO MID-70S DEW POINTS POOLING UP JUST SOUTH OF THE
DFW AREA THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN OVER 4000 J/KG OF CAPE.
GRANTED...THERE IS VERY WEAK WIND SHEAR...SO EVEN IF STORMS
DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THEY PROBABLY WILL NOT BE VERY
ORGANIZED. THAT SAID...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH 4000 J/KG OF
CAPE WILL GET BIG...FAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MICROBURSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT. ALSO...IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT DEVELOP THIS MORNING...THE BOUNDARY WILL
PROBABLY MOVE A BIT WITH THE WESTERN PART OF THE BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTH. IN THIS SCENARIO THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NEAR A BOWIE
TO GRAPEVINE TO EMORY LINE BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. WITH WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A COUPLE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON
JUST IN CASE THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT.
THIS FORECAST PROBLEM SHOULD AT LEAST BE FAIRLY EASY TO FIGURE OUT
TODAY...IF WE END UP WITH SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT
PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...WE HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE AT WASHING OUT OUR BOUNDARY...MAKING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LESS LIKELY. IF THERE IS BRIEF OR NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED
STRONG STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS IN THE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE TODAY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW TODAY WILL PLAY OUT. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST MODELS HAVE THIS BOUNDARY GETTING WASHED OUT BY
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR TONIGHT...IF WE GET A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY LINGERING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...IF NOTHING GETS GOING THIS AFTERNOON...OUR ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
CONSISTENTLY SHOW A SQUALL LINE ORGANIZING LATE TONIGHT. IF THE
SQUALL LINE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH...IT WILL CREATE ITS OWN MINI-
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT COULD PROPAGATE IT SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH TEXAS
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT AS GREAT AS
IT WAS FOR YESTERDAY MORNING...MAINLY BECAUSE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
SOMEWHAT LACKING IN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS THAT HELPS BALANCE COLD-POOL STRENGTH AND
REALLY HELPS LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS BECOME ORGANIZED INTO THEIR
OWN MINI-WEATHER SYSTEM. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR...THESE STORM COMPLEXES STILL BECOME QUITE STRONG WHERE THEY
ORIGINATE...BUT TEND TO LOSE THEIR COLD POOLS AND DISSIPATE WHEN
THEY BEGIN TO PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. BECAUSE OF THE
LACK OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...ONLY WENT WITH 30 POPS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ASSUMING
THIS PANS OUT...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ALSO...MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF A STRONGER THAN NORMAL SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST TOMORROW. AT LEAST THAT`S WHAT IT
LOOKS LIKE IN THE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS. AT ANY
RATE...WITH THE CONSISTENCY OF MODELS SHOWING QPF...WITH
CLOUDS...MOVING IN FROM THE GULF COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WENT
AHEAD AND KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE WEDNESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SORT OF MEANDER SOUTH AND JUST BECOME A GENERAL
WEAKNESS ALOFT STUCK IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGES TO OUR WEST AND
EAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY A BIT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SPREADING SOME FORCING
FOR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA. AS A RESULT...KEPT
HIGHEST POP CHANCES FOR THURSDAY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
AS THIS IS FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE AND STILL WELL WITHIN
THE MODEL CONSENSUS LOCATION OF THE COL/UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS AREA.
WE WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH LITTLE CAP IN PLACE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...SO KEPT
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A
STRONG WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARDS OVER THE
ROCKIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS
RESULTING IN LAYING THE NORTHERN MEXICO UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTH
TEXAS BY FRIDAY...AND HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT INDICATE THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STAY WEST RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT
WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE
GFS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND AS
RESULT WAS RELIED UPON HEAVILY IN THIS FORECAST. THE GFS HAS UPPER
LEVEL RIDING IN PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGING ONLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
DURING THIS PERIOD AS A RESULT. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND GRADUALLY
RAISED TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IF THIS VERIFIES...WE MAY
GET INTO OUR FIRST 100 DEGREE HIGHS HERE BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. THAT`S A LONG WAYS OUT OF COURSE...BUT THE PATTERN
LOOKS HOT AND DRY FOR NOW.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 75 93 75 91 75 / 40 40 20 30 10
WACO, TX 73 90 73 92 76 / 50 50 20 30 10
PARIS, TX 72 90 72 89 72 / 20 40 20 40 20
DENTON, TX 73 91 73 91 74 / 30 40 20 30 10
MCKINNEY, TX 74 92 74 91 74 / 30 40 20 40 20
DALLAS, TX 75 92 74 91 75 / 40 40 20 40 20
TERRELL, TX 76 93 76 92 75 / 40 30 20 40 20
CORSICANA, TX 73 90 73 91 75 / 50 50 20 40 20
TEMPLE, TX 72 90 73 90 76 / 50 50 20 30 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 90 71 90 74 / 50 30 20 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1249 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDELY-SCATTERED REGIONAL SHOWERS THAT WILL MOST LIKELY AFFECT
MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY...DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM CELLS
COVERED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TEMPOS. CLUSTERS OF RAIN WILL
CREATE BRIEF (L)IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN HEAVY RAIN LIMITING VISIBILITIES
TO A MILE OR UNDER. STRONGEST CELLS COULD PUT OUT DOWNBURST WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS IN GUST. QUIET VFR OVERNIGHT...LULL WILL COME
TO END SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW ONCE ATMOSPHERE RECHARGES AND
VCSH COMMENCE AFTER 25/14Z. WET GROUND WILL INTRODUCE THE CHANCE
FOR MVFR DECKS AND/OR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 25/09-13Z...ESPECIALLY
OVER HUBS THAT RECEIVE A GOOD SOAKING TODAY. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/
UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
AT 13Z...A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. 12Z CRP SOUNDINGS
SHOWS PW VALUES OF 2.00 INCHES AND LCH WAS NEAR 1.80 INCHES.
CONVECTIVE TEMP IS AROUND 84 AT CRP AND AROUND 88 DEGREES AT LCH.
AT 850 MB...A MOIST AXIS EXTENDED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM BRO TO
FWD WITH 850 MB DEW PTS BETWEEN 15-17 C ACROSS SE TX. AN 850
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM SHV TO AROUND AUS. AT 700 MB...THE BEST
MSTR WAS TO THE NE OF THE REGION BUT ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED
FROM ABOUT DFW TO DRT. AT 250 MB...DIVERGENCE WAS NOTED OVER EAST
TEXAS AND ALSO OVER WEST TEXAS WITH A SPEED MAX OVER SOUTH TEXAS.
SINCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY LOW WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF
MID LEVEL BOUNDARIES AND EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...FEEL
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTN. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES AND HIGH END
CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THE RAP AND ARW ALSO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE LATER TODAY. CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL WREAK HAVOC
WITH MAX TEMPS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FCST VALUES FOR NOW. NEW
ZONES OUT BY 1000 AM. 43
&&
.MARINE... RADAR SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM STREAMING NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD SEE THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CELLS TODAY...WITH GREATER COVERAGE LIKELY WED AND THU. WINDS
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE...BUT WILL LIKELY BUMP UP MORE 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY
HIGHER WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN
RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. ALONG WITH THE
INCREASING WINDS...EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE IN THAT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY TIME FRAME. WITH THE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS WOULD EXPECT
AT LEAST SCEC AND POSSIBLY SCA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. 46
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 89 75 91 75 / 30 60 20 40 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 89 76 90 76 / 30 60 30 60 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 87 81 89 80 / 40 50 40 50 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1247 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND UNFORTUNATELY NO GOOD MODEL GUIDANCE
TO RELY ON FOR THIS FORECAST AS THEY ARE NOT IDENTIFYING WITH THE
CURRENT MCS/MCV BETWEEN LUBBOCK AND ABILENE. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ROUGHLY PARALLEL/ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHERE AN AXIS OF HIGH INSTABILITY RESIDES. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL POP-UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS. ALREADY SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION IS BUILDING UP SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE
METROPLEX...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH FURTHER HEATING
AND INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE MCS/MCV TO THE WEST.
ESSENTIALLY THERE IS PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL
AFFECT THE REGION SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT IT IS A MORE DIFFICULT CALL TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE
STORMS WILL EXTEND AS FAR NORTH INTO THE METROPLEX TAF SITES.
GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF UNCAPPED INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE METROPLEX...IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE A VCTS FORECAST
STARTING AT 21-22Z FOR ANY POP-UP STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THE
MCS TO THE NW WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND REACH THE METROPLEX IN THE
23-02Z WINDOW THIS EVENING FOR INCLUSION OF A TEMPO TSRA THEN.
AT WACO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT MCS WILL REACH THE AREA AROUND
01-03Z AND A TEMPO TSRA IS INDICATED THERE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND UPDATE AS
NECESSARY. OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF STORMS...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.
TR.92
&&
.UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE CWA...MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY IS TO OUR WEST
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS. REGARDING RAIN/STORM
POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...OUR POTENTIAL FOCUSES ON
TWO DIFFERENT AREAS. THE FIRST IS A BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY LIES
ALONG A LINE FROM EMORY TO DFW TO SOUTH OF GRAHAM. THE WINDS NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE WINDS SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY ARE FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY VARY MORE MAKING THE IDENTIFICATION OF THE BOUNDARY
EASIER IN THAT REGARD. DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE
UPPER 60S WITH 70S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE WINDS IN THE
METROPLEX HAVE BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS HOUR WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 70 SUGGESTING MAYBE THIS BOUNDARY IS LIFTING
NORTH SOME. AS TEMPERATURES WARM SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY INTO THE
UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE WITH VALUES UP TO 4000 J/KG IN SOME LOCATIONS. WIND SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE LOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...AND AS DESCRIBED
IN THIS MORNINGS DISCUSSION...STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD QUICKLY
BECOME STRONG/SEVERE BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BE ORGANIZED DUE TO THE
WEAK SHEAR. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
MICROBURST WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN NUISANCE FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING
AS STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10-15 MPH. NEW
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THIS AFTERNOONS STORMS WHICH COULD INCREASE A LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.
THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX OF STORMS CURRENTLY IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TO THE EAST OF LUBBOCK. THIS COMPLEX IS RIDING ITS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND QUICKLY MOVING SOUTHEAST. WE ANTICIPATE THIS
MCS TO REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. DESPITE THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO THIS
SYSTEM...IT IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN ITS COMPOSURE ENOUGH TO REACH
THE CWA BASED ON ITS COLD POOL INTERACTIONS. IN ADDITION...THE MCS
IS HEADING INTO A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH TEXAS WHICH WOULD FAVOR ITS MAINTENANCE LONG
ENOUGH TO REACH NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WHEN THE COMPLEX REACHES OUR
COUNTIES IT COULD BE SEVERE WITH A DAMAGING WIND...HEAVY
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY HAIL THREAT. IN ADDITION...STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX ACROSS AREAS NORTHWEST OF ABILENE.
THIS SUPPORTS AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. THESE NEW STORMS ARE NOT MOVING VERY FAST AND WILL
LIKELY BE ABSORBED BY THE MCS.
FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY AND EVENING WITH 50 POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH
HALVES OF THE CWA. DID NOT ADJUST TEMPERATURES MUCH...BUT HIGH
CLOUD DEBRIS AND AREAS OF RAIN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER IN SOME LOCATIONS.
82/JLD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/
08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN PLACE
FROM SULPHUR SPRINGS TO BURLESON TO BRECKENRIDGE. THERE WERE WEAK
GRADIENTS OF BOTH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WITH COOLER VALUES LOCATED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LOOKING AT THE
GRADIENT OF EITHER TEMPERATURE OR DEW POINT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THIS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OF THETA-E WITH A CHANGE
OF ALMOST 8 KELVIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AS A
RESULT...THINK THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY. IT MAY HOLD SOME
IDENTITY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL IF SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ACCURATE. THE 07Z RAP INDICATED THAT THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDS UP TO THE 850 MB LEVEL WHERE THE THETA-E GRADIENT IS EVEN
MORE PRONOUNCED...SHOWING A THETA-E CHANGE OF 12-16 KELVIN ALONG
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE MAIN POINT OF THIS ANALYSIS
IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS AS THROUGH IT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
REMAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA AS WE APPROACH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
OF THE DAY. IF IT STILL EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON...IT COULD BE A BIG
PLAYER IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION TODAY.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TODAY...ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS IMPORTANT FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY AS MOST GUIDANCE ADVERTISES QPF ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SOMETIME
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF WHEN THIS QPF
SHOWS UP IS THE KEY DIFFERENCE AMONGST THE MODELS. MANY OF THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW QPF OR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. IF
THIS OCCURS...THE CONVECTION THAT IS INITIATED WILL PROBABLY BE
RELATIVELY WEAK IN NATURE AND MAY BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT OVER THE BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED A NICE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. IT`S HARD TO SAY WHETHER THIS
CONVECTION WOULD BE ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE BOUNDARY OR NOT IF IT
DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. IF NOTHING ELSE...IT WILL ADD CLOUDS OVER
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWING DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO
REDUCE THE IDENTITY OF THE BOUNDARY BY WARMING THE COOL SIDE AND
KEEPING THE WARM SIDE SHIELDED FROM SUNSHINE/HEATING. IT`S
PROBABLY FOR THIS REASON THAT MOST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
MEMBERS HAVE MORNING CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.
IF THERE IS LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...THIS BOUNDARY PROBABLY HAS A BETTER CHANCE AT INITIATING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS USUALLY FAIRLY RELIABLE WHEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SIGNAL OF
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG A COMMON BOUNDARY AROUND A COMMON
TIME. THEREFORE...THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE THAT
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING RATHER THAN HOLDING
OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ONLY REASON TO DOUBT SOME OF THE MODELS SHOWING THIS MORNING
CONVECTION IS THE LACK OF RESPONSE IN THE REST OF THE MASS FIELDS
WHERE THE QPF IS LOCATED. THAT IS...SOME POSITIVE QPF SHOWS UP
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THIS SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE...HOWEVER THERE
IS NO INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND NO LOW-LEVEL
RESPONSE IN THE WIND FIELDS. BRINGING MODEL LOGIC INTO THE REAL
WORLD...THAT`S LIKE SAYING...WE`RE GOING TO HAVE RAIN...BUT NO
CLOUDS. IT DOESN`T MAKE SENSE. AS A RESULT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE MODELS ARE SIMPLY PUTTING QPF OUT THERE BECAUSE THERE`S A
BOUNDARY AND WE HAVE SOME MOISTURE AND CAPE IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.
FOR MODELS THAT DO NOT SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...THOSE SOLUTIONS REALLY RAMP UP THE CAPE AND MOISTURE
POOLING SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE MODELS
INDICATE LOWER TO MID-70S DEW POINTS POOLING UP JUST SOUTH OF THE
DFW AREA THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN OVER 4000 J/KG OF CAPE.
GRANTED...THERE IS VERY WEAK WIND SHEAR...SO EVEN IF STORMS
DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THEY PROBABLY WILL NOT BE VERY
ORGANIZED. THAT SAID...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH 4000 J/KG OF
CAPE WILL GET BIG...FAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MICROBURSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT. ALSO...IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT DEVELOP THIS MORNING...THE BOUNDARY WILL
PROBABLY MOVE A BIT WITH THE WESTERN PART OF THE BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTH. IN THIS SCENARIO THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NEAR A BOWIE
TO GRAPEVINE TO EMORY LINE BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. WITH WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A COUPLE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON
JUST IN CASE THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT.
THIS FORECAST PROBLEM SHOULD AT LEAST BE FAIRLY EASY TO FIGURE OUT
TODAY...IF WE END UP WITH SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT
PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...WE HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE AT WASHING OUT OUR BOUNDARY...MAKING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LESS LIKELY. IF THERE IS BRIEF OR NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED
STRONG STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS IN THE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE TODAY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW TODAY WILL PLAY OUT. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST MODELS HAVE THIS BOUNDARY GETTING WASHED OUT BY
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR TONIGHT...IF WE GET A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY LINGERING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...IF NOTHING GETS GOING THIS AFTERNOON...OUR ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
CONSISTENTLY SHOW A SQUALL LINE ORGANIZING LATE TONIGHT. IF THE
SQUALL LINE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH...IT WILL CREATE ITS OWN MINI-
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT COULD PROPAGATE IT SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH TEXAS
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT AS GREAT AS
IT WAS FOR YESTERDAY MORNING...MAINLY BECAUSE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
SOMEWHAT LACKING IN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS THAT HELPS BALANCE COLD-POOL STRENGTH AND
REALLY HELPS LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS BECOME ORGANIZED INTO THEIR
OWN MINI-WEATHER SYSTEM. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR...THESE STORM COMPLEXES STILL BECOME QUITE STRONG WHERE THEY
ORIGINATE...BUT TEND TO LOSE THEIR COLD POOLS AND DISSIPATE WHEN
THEY BEGIN TO PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. BECAUSE OF THE
LACK OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...ONLY WENT WITH 30 POPS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ASSUMING
THIS PANS OUT...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ALSO...MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF A STRONGER THAN NORMAL SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST TOMORROW. AT LEAST THAT`S WHAT IT
LOOKS LIKE IN THE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS. AT ANY
RATE...WITH THE CONSISTENCY OF MODELS SHOWING QPF...WITH
CLOUDS...MOVING IN FROM THE GULF COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WENT
AHEAD AND KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE WEDNESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SORT OF MEANDER SOUTH AND JUST BECOME A GENERAL
WEAKNESS ALOFT STUCK IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGES TO OUR WEST AND
EAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY A BIT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SPREADING SOME FORCING
FOR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA. AS A RESULT...KEPT
HIGHEST POP CHANCES FOR THURSDAY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
AS THIS IS FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE AND STILL WELL WITHIN
THE MODEL CONSENSUS LOCATION OF THE COL/UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS AREA.
WE WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH LITTLE CAP IN PLACE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...SO KEPT
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A
STRONG WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARDS OVER THE
ROCKIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS
RESULTING IN LAYING THE NORTHERN MEXICO UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTH
TEXAS BY FRIDAY...AND HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT INDICATE THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STAY WEST RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT
WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE
GFS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND AS
RESULT WAS RELIED UPON HEAVILY IN THIS FORECAST. THE GFS HAS UPPER
LEVEL RIDING IN PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGING ONLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
DURING THIS PERIOD AS A RESULT. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND GRADUALLY
RAISED TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IF THIS VERIFIES...WE MAY
GET INTO OUR FIRST 100 DEGREE HIGHS HERE BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. THAT`S A LONG WAYS OUT OF COURSE...BUT THE PATTERN
LOOKS HOT AND DRY FOR NOW.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 92 75 93 75 91 / 40 40 40 20 30
WACO, TX 90 73 90 73 92 / 50 50 50 20 30
PARIS, TX 89 72 90 72 89 / 20 20 40 20 40
DENTON, TX 91 73 91 73 91 / 30 30 40 20 30
MCKINNEY, TX 92 74 92 74 91 / 30 30 40 20 40
DALLAS, TX 92 75 92 74 91 / 40 40 40 20 40
TERRELL, TX 93 76 93 76 92 / 40 40 30 20 40
CORSICANA, TX 89 73 90 73 91 / 50 50 50 20 40
TEMPLE, TX 91 72 90 73 90 / 50 50 50 20 30
MINERAL WELLS, TX 89 72 90 71 90 / 50 50 30 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1231 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY HAS RESULTED
IN INCREASED SHOWER AND EMBEDDED TSTORM COVERAGE. ENHANCED SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY BISECTING CAMERON COUNTY INTO WEST
AND EAST HALVES...HAVING EARLIER AFFLICTED THE BROWNSVILLE AREA
AND NOW MOVING OVER THE HRL ENVIRONS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRAIN NORTH OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES...WITH DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY
MOVING UP FROM MEXICO OVER THE MID VALLEY AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON.
THE RUC AND NAM SEEM TO AGREE ON THE BEST COVERAGE SHIFTING INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD AMELIORATE THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 MPH...BUT A REPEAT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR BKN TO OVC VFR CEILINGS EXCEPT
NEAR SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WHEN CEILINGS MAY DROP
BELOW 3 KFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...A MIX OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. EXPECT A MIX
OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 14Z. WILL MENTION A
TEMPO GROUP AT BRO DUE TO CEILINGS AT 800 FEET. WEAK 500 MB
TROUGH/LOW ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
VICINITY SHOWERS AFTER 15Z WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE BY 15Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY RETURN TO THE REGION AFTER 08Z BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT
THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER AN AREA OF MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE INFLUX OF ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH DEEP ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAKNESS ALOFT
WILL PROVIDE INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME OF THE SLOWER
MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
SCATTERED POPS FOR TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. WILL MENTION HIGH
END SCATTERED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BETTER SEA BREEZE CONVECTION.
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR THE
COAST TO THE MID TO UPPER ACROSS THE WEST TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN TODAY
DUE TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND THICKER CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME. 500 MB
TROUGHINESS OVER THE TEXAS COASTLINE WILL PERSIST BETWEEN A 500 MB
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. WITH SURGES OF VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2 AND 2.3 INCHES...ENTERING DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
COMBINING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT. SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3.3 FEET AT
0750 UTC /0250 AM CDT. THE LATEST OBSERVATION PLATFORMS ACROSS THE
LAGUNA MADRE INDICATES SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 9 TO 13 KNOTS.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. THE LATEST
NAM/GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS NO LONGER SUPPORTS LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. SO HAVE
LOWERED WINDS AND SEAS DOWN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL WEAKNESS PERSISTS
OVERHEAD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE
COAST OF LOUISIANA WILL INTERACT WITH PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS...PRODUCING WINDS AND SEAS THAT
WILL BE MORE INDICATIVE OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION EARLY IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS
INTENSIFIES...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY...SUCH THAT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL BE MORE
LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
54/53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1125 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE CWA...MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY IS TO OUR WEST
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS. REGARDING RAIN/STORM
POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...OUR POTENTIAL FOCUSES ON
TWO DIFFERENT AREAS. THE FIRST IS A BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY LIES
ALONG A LINE FROM EMORY TO DFW TO SOUTH OF GRAHAM. THE WINDS NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE WINDS SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY ARE FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY VARY MORE MAKING THE IDENTIFICATION OF THE BOUNDARY
EASIER IN THAT REGARD. DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE
UPPER 60S WITH 70S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE WINDS IN THE
METROPLEX HAVE BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS HOUR WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 70 SUGGESTING MAYBE THIS BOUNDARY IS LIFTING
NORTH SOME. AS TEMPERATURES WARM SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY INTO THE
UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE WITH VALUES UP TO 4000 J/KG IN SOME LOCATIONS. WIND SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE LOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...AND AS DESCRIBED
IN THIS MORNINGS DISCUSSION...STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD QUICKLY
BECOME STRONG/SEVERE BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BE ORGANIZED DUE TO THE
WEAK SHEAR. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
MICROBURST WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN NUISANCE FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING
AS STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10-15 MPH. NEW
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THIS AFTERNOONS STORMS WHICH COULD INCREASE A LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.
THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX OF STORMS CURRENTLY IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TO THE EAST OF LUBBOCK. THIS COMPLEX IS RIDING ITS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND QUICKLY MOVING SOUTHEAST. WE ANTICIPATE THIS
MCS TO REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. DESPITE THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO THIS
SYSTEM...IT IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN ITS COMPOSURE ENOUGH TO REACH
THE CWA BASED ON ITS COLD POOL INTERACTIONS. IN ADDITION...THE MCS
IS HEADING INTO A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH TEXAS WHICH WOULD FAVOR ITS MAINTENANCE LONG
ENOUGH TO REACH NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WHEN THE COMPLEX REACHES OUR
COUNTIES IT COULD BE SEVERE WITH A DAMAGING WIND...HEAVY
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY HAIL THREAT. IN ADDITION...STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX ACROSS AREAS NORTHWEST OF ABILENE.
THIS SUPPORTS AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. THESE NEW STORMS ARE NOT MOVING VERY FAST AND WILL
LIKELY BE ABSORBED BY THE MCS.
FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY AND EVENING WITH 50 POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH
HALVES OF THE CWA. DID NOT ADJUST TEMPERATURES MUCH...BUT HIGH
CLOUD DEBRIS AND AREAS OF RAIN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER IN SOME LOCATIONS.
82/JLD
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 613 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED BETWEEN
THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX AND THE WACO/TEMPLE/KILLEEN AREA.
THE LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY LOCATED ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
BETWEEN THE METROPLEX AND WACO WITH CELL MOVEMENT DUE EAST...SO
DIRECT IMPACT AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS APPEARS FARLY SLIM FOR THE
TIME BEING.
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY
EAST. LARGE DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN VARIOUS COMPUTER MODELS
WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AM LEANING CLOSE
TO THE NAM12 SOLUTION FOR ONSET OF CONVECTION AT AREA TERMINALS
BECAUSE IT SEAMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT FEATURES
AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. WILL INTRODUCE VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS
AROUND 22-00Z THIS EVENING AND FINE TUNE THE TIMING IN LATER FORECASTS
IF IT BECOMES NECESSARY.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/
08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN PLACE
FROM SULPHUR SPRINGS TO BURLESON TO BRECKENRIDGE. THERE WERE WEAK
GRADIENTS OF BOTH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WITH COOLER VALUES LOCATED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LOOKING AT THE
GRADIENT OF EITHER TEMPERATURE OR DEW POINT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THIS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OF THETA-E WITH A CHANGE
OF ALMOST 8 KELVIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AS A
RESULT...THINK THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY. IT MAY HOLD SOME
IDENTITY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL IF SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ACCURATE. THE 07Z RAP INDICATED THAT THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDS UP TO THE 850 MB LEVEL WHERE THE THETA-E GRADIENT IS EVEN
MORE PRONOUNCED...SHOWING A THETA-E CHANGE OF 12-16 KELVIN ALONG
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE MAIN POINT OF THIS ANALYSIS
IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS AS THROUGH IT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
REMAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA AS WE APPROACH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
OF THE DAY. IF IT STILL EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON...IT COULD BE A BIG
PLAYER IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION TODAY.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TODAY...ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS IMPORTANT FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY AS MOST GUIDANCE ADVERTISES QPF ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SOMETIME
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF WHEN THIS QPF
SHOWS UP IS THE KEY DIFFERENCE AMONGST THE MODELS. MANY OF THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW QPF OR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. IF
THIS OCCURS...THE CONVECTION THAT IS INITIATED WILL PROBABLY BE
RELATIVELY WEAK IN NATURE AND MAY BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT OVER THE BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED A NICE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. IT`S HARD TO SAY WHETHER THIS
CONVECTION WOULD BE ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE BOUNDARY OR NOT IF IT
DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. IF NOTHING ELSE...IT WILL ADD CLOUDS OVER
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWING DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO
REDUCE THE IDENTITY OF THE BOUNDARY BY WARMING THE COOL SIDE AND
KEEPING THE WARM SIDE SHIELDED FROM SUNSHINE/HEATING. IT`S
PROBABLY FOR THIS REASON THAT MOST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
MEMBERS HAVE MORNING CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.
IF THERE IS LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...THIS BOUNDARY PROBABLY HAS A BETTER CHANCE AT INITIATING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS USUALLY FAIRLY RELIABLE WHEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SIGNAL OF
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG A COMMON BOUNDARY AROUND A COMMON
TIME. THEREFORE...THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE THAT
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING RATHER THAN HOLDING
OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ONLY REASON TO DOUBT SOME OF THE MODELS SHOWING THIS MORNING
CONVECTION IS THE LACK OF RESPONSE IN THE REST OF THE MASS FIELDS
WHERE THE QPF IS LOCATED. THAT IS...SOME POSITIVE QPF SHOWS UP
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THIS SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE...HOWEVER THERE
IS NO INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND NO LOW-LEVEL
RESPONSE IN THE WIND FIELDS. BRINGING MODEL LOGIC INTO THE REAL
WORLD...THAT`S LIKE SAYING...WE`RE GOING TO HAVE RAIN...BUT NO
CLOUDS. IT DOESN`T MAKE SENSE. AS A RESULT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE MODELS ARE SIMPLY PUTTING QPF OUT THERE BECAUSE THERE`S A
BOUNDARY AND WE HAVE SOME MOISTURE AND CAPE IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.
FOR MODELS THAT DO NOT SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...THOSE SOLUTIONS REALLY RAMP UP THE CAPE AND MOISTURE
POOLING SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE MODELS
INDICATE LOWER TO MID-70S DEW POINTS POOLING UP JUST SOUTH OF THE
DFW AREA THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN OVER 4000 J/KG OF CAPE.
GRANTED...THERE IS VERY WEAK WIND SHEAR...SO EVEN IF STORMS
DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THEY PROBABLY WILL NOT BE VERY
ORGANIZED. THAT SAID...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH 4000 J/KG OF
CAPE WILL GET BIG...FAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MICROBURSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT. ALSO...IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT DEVELOP THIS MORNING...THE BOUNDARY WILL
PROBABLY MOVE A BIT WITH THE WESTERN PART OF THE BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTH. IN THIS SCENARIO THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NEAR A BOWIE
TO GRAPEVINE TO EMORY LINE BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. WITH WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A COUPLE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON
JUST IN CASE THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT.
THIS FORECAST PROBLEM SHOULD AT LEAST BE FAIRLY EASY TO FIGURE OUT
TODAY...IF WE END UP WITH SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT
PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...WE HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE AT WASHING OUT OUR BOUNDARY...MAKING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LESS LIKELY. IF THERE IS BRIEF OR NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED
STRONG STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS IN THE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE TODAY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW TODAY WILL PLAY OUT. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST MODELS HAVE THIS BOUNDARY GETTING WASHED OUT BY
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR TONIGHT...IF WE GET A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY LINGERING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...IF NOTHING GETS GOING THIS AFTERNOON...OUR ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
CONSISTENTLY SHOW A SQUALL LINE ORGANIZING LATE TONIGHT. IF THE
SQUALL LINE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH...IT WILL CREATE ITS OWN MINI-
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT COULD PROPAGATE IT SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH TEXAS
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT AS GREAT AS
IT WAS FOR YESTERDAY MORNING...MAINLY BECAUSE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
SOMEWHAT LACKING IN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS THAT HELPS BALANCE COLD-POOL STRENGTH AND
REALLY HELPS LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS BECOME ORGANIZED INTO THEIR
OWN MINI-WEATHER SYSTEM. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR...THESE STORM COMPLEXES STILL BECOME QUITE STRONG WHERE THEY
ORIGINATE...BUT TEND TO LOSE THEIR COLD POOLS AND DISSIPATE WHEN
THEY BEGIN TO PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. BECAUSE OF THE
LACK OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...ONLY WENT WITH 30 POPS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ASSUMING
THIS PANS OUT...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ALSO...MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF A STRONGER THAN NORMAL SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST TOMORROW. AT LEAST THAT`S WHAT IT
LOOKS LIKE IN THE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS. AT ANY
RATE...WITH THE CONSISTENCY OF MODELS SHOWING QPF...WITH
CLOUDS...MOVING IN FROM THE GULF COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WENT
AHEAD AND KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE WEDNESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SORT OF MEANDER SOUTH AND JUST BECOME A GENERAL
WEAKNESS ALOFT STUCK IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGES TO OUR WEST AND
EAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY A BIT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SPREADING SOME FORCING
FOR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA. AS A RESULT...KEPT
HIGHEST POP CHANCES FOR THURSDAY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
AS THIS IS FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE AND STILL WELL WITHIN
THE MODEL CONSENSUS LOCATION OF THE COL/UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS AREA.
WE WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH LITTLE CAP IN PLACE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...SO KEPT
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A
STRONG WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARDS OVER THE
ROCKIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS
RESULTING IN LAYING THE NORTHERN MEXICO UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTH
TEXAS BY FRIDAY...AND HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT INDICATE THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STAY WEST RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT
WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE
GFS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND AS
RESULT WAS RELIED UPON HEAVILY IN THIS FORECAST. THE GFS HAS UPPER
LEVEL RIDING IN PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGING ONLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
DURING THIS PERIOD AS A RESULT. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND GRADUALLY
RAISED TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IF THIS VERIFIES...WE MAY
GET INTO OUR FIRST 100 DEGREE HIGHS HERE BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. THAT`S A LONG WAYS OUT OF COURSE...BUT THE PATTERN
LOOKS HOT AND DRY FOR NOW.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 92 75 93 75 91 / 40 40 40 20 30
WACO, TX 90 73 90 73 92 / 50 50 50 20 30
PARIS, TX 89 72 90 72 89 / 20 20 40 20 40
DENTON, TX 91 73 91 73 91 / 30 30 40 20 30
MCKINNEY, TX 92 74 92 74 91 / 30 30 40 20 40
DALLAS, TX 92 75 92 74 91 / 40 40 40 20 40
TERRELL, TX 93 76 93 76 92 / 40 40 30 20 40
CORSICANA, TX 89 73 90 73 91 / 50 50 50 20 40
TEMPLE, TX 91 72 90 73 90 / 50 50 50 20 30
MINERAL WELLS, TX 89 72 90 71 90 / 50 50 30 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
92/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
939 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AT 13Z...A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. 12Z CRP SOUNDINGS
SHOWS PW VALUES OF 2.00 INCHES AND LCH WAS NEAR 1.80 INCHES.
CONVECTIVE TEMP IS AROUND 84 AT CRP AND AROUND 88 DEGREES AT LCH.
AT 850 MB...A MOIST AXIS EXTENDED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM BRO TO
FWD WITH 850 MB DEW PTS BETWEEN 15-17 C ACROSS SE TX. AN 850
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM SHV TO AROUND AUS. AT 700 MB...THE BEST
MSTR WAS TO THE NE OF THE REGION BUT ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED
FROM ABOUT DFW TO DRT. AT 250 MB...DIVERGENCE WAS NOTED OVER EAST
TEXAS AND ALSO OVER WEST TEXAS WITH A SPEED MAX OVER SOUTH TEXAS.
SINCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY LOW WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF
MID LEVEL BOUNDARIES AND EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...FEEL
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTN. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES AND HIGH END
CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THE RAP AND ARW ALSO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE LATER TODAY. CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL WREAK HAVOC
WITH MAX TEMPS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FCST VALUES FOR NOW. NEW
ZONES OUT BY 1000 AM. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
RADAR SHOWING A COUPLE AREAS OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING...WITH ONE
CLUSTER OF STORMS JUST SOUTHEAST OF GLS...ANOTHER EAST TO WEST
ORIENTED BAND OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS UP TOWARD JSO AND PSN...AND
ANOTHER MCS NOW MOVING THROUGH WEST TEXAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW INSTABILITY...WITH LITTLE OR NO CAPPING AS
EVIDENCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EARLY IN THE MORNING. THINK
WILL SEE EXPANDED COVERAGE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WITH SHOWERS AND
TSTRMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AFTER NOON. FOR THIS REASON HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO OR PROB30 GROUP MOST SITES TRYING TO PICK OUT THE
MOST LIKELY WINDOW. HRRR MODEL AND 4 KM WRF ALSO SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THOSE MODELS ALREADY MISSING SOME OF THE
POTENTIALLY IMPORTANT DETAILS...FOR EXAMPLE WEST TEXAS MCS. BASED
ON WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT THAT FEATURE
MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR FA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...AUGMENTING RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. 46
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
HGX RADAR AT 3 AM IS SHOWING NORTHWARD MORNING CONVECTION EXTENDING
FROM THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD OUT INTO THE
GULF. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF AND
MOVE INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WHILE DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES COMBINE TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FURTHER INLAND LATER THIS MORNING AND ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT THIS PATTERN OF LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE COAST/OFFSHORE THEN INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES TO PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HOVER AROUND TWO INCHES WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS. THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY...
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TO RECEIVE 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN WITH THE AREA`S BEST RAIN CHANCES
SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...AND THIS COULD LEAD
TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IF IT HAPPENS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MIGHT TRY TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND ON INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK...SO WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOWERING RAIN CHANCES
COME SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 42
MARINE...
RADAR SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM STREAMING
NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD SEE THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS TODAY...WITH GREATER
COVERAGE LIKELY WED AND THU. WINDS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE...BUT WILL LIKELY BUMP UP
MORE 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY HIGHER WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ALONG WITH THE INCREASING WINDS...EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE IN THAT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME. WITH THE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SCEC AND POSSIBLY SCA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
46
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
AVIATION...
00Z GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS IS CERTAINLY PAINTING A WETTER FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY. AN UPPER SPEED MAX MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS WITH A
S/W TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND STALLING OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS. PW INCREASE TO AROUND 1.7" AND K-INDEX OF 33-41 WILL BE IN
PLACE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA SO HAVE MADE SOME FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE CHANGES TO THE AREA INLAND TERMINALS WITH VCSH
BEGINNING AROUND 15Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED
BY A PROB30 WINDOW FROM 15-20Z IN THE NORTH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
17-22Z FOR THE METRO TERMINALS. AS MOIST AS THE GFS IS IT COULD BE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN/TSRA SO SOME REDUCTION IN VISBY WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED. SPEED MAX MOVES EAST AND SHRA/TSRA SHOULD
TAPER OFF BUT ANOTHER S/W CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING NEAR 00Z/WED SO
CHANGES MAY BE NEEDED IF THE AIRMASS DOESN`T GET WORKED OVER.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 91 74 89 75 91 / 50 30 60 20 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 75 89 76 90 / 60 30 60 30 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 81 87 81 89 / 30 40 50 40 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
648 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
RADAR SHOWING A COUPLE AREAS OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING...WITH ONE
CLUSTER OF STORMS JUST SOUTHEAST OF GLS...ANOTHER EAST TO WEST
ORIENTED BAND OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS UP TOWARD JSO AND PSN...AND
ANOTHER MCS NOW MOVING THROUGH WEST TEXAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW INSTABILITY...WITH LITTLE OR NO CAPPING AS
EVIDENCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EARLY IN THE MORNING. THINK
WILL SEE EXPANDED COVERAGE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WITH SHOWERS AND
TSTRMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AFTER NOON. FOR THIS REASON HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO OR PROB30 GROUP MOST SITES TRYING TO PICK OUT THE
MOST LIKELY WINDOW. HRRR MODEL AND 4 KM WRF ALSO SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THOSE MODELS ALREADY MISSING SOME OF THE
POTENTIALLY IMPORTANT DETAILS...FOR EXAMPLE WEST TEXAS MCS. BASED
ON WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT THAT FEATURE
MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR FA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...AUGMENTING RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. 46
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
HGX RADAR AT 3 AM IS SHOWING NORTHWARD MORNING CONVECTION EXTENDING
FROM THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD OUT INTO THE
GULF. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF AND
MOVE INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WHILE DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES COMBINE TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FURTHER INLAND LATER THIS MORNING AND ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT THIS PATTERN OF LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE COAST/OFFSHORE THEN INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES TO PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HOVER AROUND TWO INCHES WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS. THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY...
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TO RECEIVE 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN WITH THE AREA`S BEST RAIN CHANCES
SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...AND THIS COULD LEAD
TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IF IT HAPPENS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MIGHT TRY TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND ON INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK...SO WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOWERING RAIN CHANCES
COME SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 42
MARINE...
RADAR SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM STREAMING
NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD SEE THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS TODAY...WITH GREATER
COVERAGE LIKELY WED AND THU. WINDS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE...BUT WILL LIKELY BUMP UP
MORE 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY HIGHER WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ALONG WITH THE INCREASING WINDS...EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE IN THAT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME. WITH THE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SCEC AND POSSIBLY SCA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
46
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
AVIATION...
00Z GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS IS CERTAINLY PAINTING A WETTER FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY. AN UPPER SPEED MAX MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS WITH A
S/W TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND STALLING OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS. PW INCREASE TO AROUND 1.7" AND K-INDEX OF 33-41 WILL BE IN
PLACE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA SO HAVE MADE SOME FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE CHANGES TO THE AREA INLAND TERMINALS WITH VCSH
BEGINNING AROUND 15Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED
BY A PROB30 WINDOW FROM 15-20Z IN THE NORTH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
17-22Z FOR THE METRO TERMINALS. AS MOIST AS THE GFS IS IT COULD BE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN/TSRA SO SOME REDUCTION IN VISBY WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED. SPEED MAX MOVES EAST AND SHRA/TSRA SHOULD
TAPER OFF BUT ANOTHER S/W CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING NEAR 00Z/WED SO
CHANGES MAY BE NEEDED IF THE AIRMASS DOESN`T GET WORKED OVER.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 91 74 89 75 91 / 40 30 60 20 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 75 89 76 90 / 40 30 60 30 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 81 87 81 89 / 30 40 50 40 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
613 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED BETWEEN
THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX AND THE WACO/TEMPLE/KILLEEN AREA.
THE LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY LOCATED ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
BETWEEN THE METROPLEX AND WACO WITH CELL MOVEMENT DUE EAST...SO
DIRECT IMPACT AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS APPEARS FARLY SLIM FOR THE
TIME BEING.
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY
EAST. LARGE DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN VARIOUS COMPUTER MODELS
WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AM LEANING CLOSE
TO THE NAM12 SOLUTION FOR ONSET OF CONVECTION AT AREA TERMINALS
BECAUSE IT SEAMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT FEATURES
AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. WILL INTRODUCE VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS
AROUND 22-00Z THIS EVENING AND FINE TUNE THE TIMING IN LATER FORECASTS
IF IT BECOMES NECESSARY.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/
08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN PLACE
FROM SULPHUR SPRINGS TO BURLESON TO BRECKENRIDGE. THERE WERE WEAK
GRADIENTS OF BOTH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WITH COOLER VALUES LOCATED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LOOKING AT THE
GRADIENT OF EITHER TEMPERATURE OR DEW POINT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THIS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OF THETA-E WITH A CHANGE
OF ALMOST 8 KELVIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AS A
RESULT...THINK THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY. IT MAY HOLD SOME
IDENTITY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL IF SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ACCURATE. THE 07Z RAP INDICATED THAT THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDS UP TO THE 850 MB LEVEL WHERE THE THETA-E GRADIENT IS EVEN
MORE PRONOUNCED...SHOWING A THETA-E CHANGE OF 12-16 KELVIN ALONG
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE MAIN POINT OF THIS ANALYSIS
IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS AS THROUGH IT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
REMAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA AS WE APPROACH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
OF THE DAY. IF IT STILL EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON...IT COULD BE A BIG
PLAYER IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION TODAY.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TODAY...ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS IMPORTANT FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY AS MOST GUIDANCE ADVERTISES QPF ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SOMETIME
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF WHEN THIS QPF
SHOWS UP IS THE KEY DIFFERENCE AMONGST THE MODELS. MANY OF THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW QPF OR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. IF
THIS OCCURS...THE CONVECTION THAT IS INITIATED WILL PROBABLY BE
RELATIVELY WEAK IN NATURE AND MAY BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT OVER THE BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED A NICE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. IT`S HARD TO SAY WHETHER THIS
CONVECTION WOULD BE ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE BOUNDARY OR NOT IF IT
DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. IF NOTHING ELSE...IT WILL ADD CLOUDS OVER
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWING DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO
REDUCE THE IDENTITY OF THE BOUNDARY BY WARMING THE COOL SIDE AND
KEEPING THE WARM SIDE SHIELDED FROM SUNSHINE/HEATING. IT`S
PROBABLY FOR THIS REASON THAT MOST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
MEMBERS HAVE MORNING CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.
IF THERE IS LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...THIS BOUNDARY PROBABLY HAS A BETTER CHANCE AT INITIATING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS USUALLY FAIRLY RELIABLE WHEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SIGNAL OF
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG A COMMON BOUNDARY AROUND A COMMON
TIME. THEREFORE...THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE THAT
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING RATHER THAN HOLDING
OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ONLY REASON TO DOUBT SOME OF THE MODELS SHOWING THIS MORNING
CONVECTION IS THE LACK OF RESPONSE IN THE REST OF THE MASS FIELDS
WHERE THE QPF IS LOCATED. THAT IS...SOME POSITIVE QPF SHOWS UP
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THIS SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE...HOWEVER THERE
IS NO INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND NO LOW-LEVEL
RESPONSE IN THE WIND FIELDS. BRINGING MODEL LOGIC INTO THE REAL
WORLD...THAT`S LIKE SAYING...WE`RE GOING TO HAVE RAIN...BUT NO
CLOUDS. IT DOESN`T MAKE SENSE. AS A RESULT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE MODELS ARE SIMPLY PUTTING QPF OUT THERE BECAUSE THERE`S A
BOUNDARY AND WE HAVE SOME MOISTURE AND CAPE IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.
FOR MODELS THAT DO NOT SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...THOSE SOLUTIONS REALLY RAMP UP THE CAPE AND MOISTURE
POOLING SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE MODELS
INDICATE LOWER TO MID-70S DEW POINTS POOLING UP JUST SOUTH OF THE
DFW AREA THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN OVER 4000 J/KG OF CAPE.
GRANTED...THERE IS VERY WEAK WIND SHEAR...SO EVEN IF STORMS
DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THEY PROBABLY WILL NOT BE VERY
ORGANIZED. THAT SAID...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH 4000 J/KG OF
CAPE WILL GET BIG...FAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MICROBURSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT. ALSO...IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT DEVELOP THIS MORNING...THE BOUNDARY WILL
PROBABLY MOVE A BIT WITH THE WESTERN PART OF THE BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTH. IN THIS SCENARIO THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NEAR A BOWIE
TO GRAPEVINE TO EMORY LINE BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. WITH WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A COUPLE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON
JUST IN CASE THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT.
THIS FORECAST PROBLEM SHOULD AT LEAST BE FAIRLY EASY TO FIGURE OUT
TODAY...IF WE END UP WITH SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT
PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...WE HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE AT WASHING OUT OUR BOUNDARY...MAKING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LESS LIKELY. IF THERE IS BRIEF OR NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED
STRONG STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS IN THE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE TODAY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW TODAY WILL PLAY OUT. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST MODELS HAVE THIS BOUNDARY GETTING WASHED OUT BY
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR TONIGHT...IF WE GET A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY LINGERING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...IF NOTHING GETS GOING THIS AFTERNOON...OUR ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
CONSISTENTLY SHOW A SQUALL LINE ORGANIZING LATE TONIGHT. IF THE
SQUALL LINE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH...IT WILL CREATE ITS OWN MINI-
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT COULD PROPAGATE IT SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH TEXAS
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT AS GREAT AS
IT WAS FOR YESTERDAY MORNING...MAINLY BECAUSE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
SOMEWHAT LACKING IN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS THAT HELPS BALANCE COLD-POOL STRENGTH AND
REALLY HELPS LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS BECOME ORGANIZED INTO THEIR
OWN MINI-WEATHER SYSTEM. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR...THESE STORM COMPLEXES STILL BECOME QUITE STRONG WHERE THEY
ORIGINATE...BUT TEND TO LOSE THEIR COLD POOLS AND DISSIPATE WHEN
THEY BEGIN TO PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. BECAUSE OF THE
LACK OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...ONLY WENT WITH 30 POPS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ASSUMING
THIS PANS OUT...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ALSO...MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF A STRONGER THAN NORMAL SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST TOMORROW. AT LEAST THAT`S WHAT IT
LOOKS LIKE IN THE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS. AT ANY
RATE...WITH THE CONSISTENCY OF MODELS SHOWING QPF...WITH
CLOUDS...MOVING IN FROM THE GULF COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WENT
AHEAD AND KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE WEDNESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SORT OF MEANDER SOUTH AND JUST BECOME A GENERAL
WEAKNESS ALOFT STUCK IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGES TO OUR WEST AND
EAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY A BIT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SPREADING SOME FORCING
FOR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA. AS A RESULT...KEPT
HIGHEST POP CHANCES FOR THURSDAY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
AS THIS IS FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE AND STILL WELL WITHIN
THE MODEL CONSENSUS LOCATION OF THE COL/UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS AREA.
WE WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH LITTLE CAP IN PLACE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...SO KEPT
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A
STRONG WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARDS OVER THE
ROCKIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS
RESULTING IN LAYING THE NORTHERN MEXICO UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTH
TEXAS BY FRIDAY...AND HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT INDICATE THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STAY WEST RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT
WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE
GFS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND AS
RESULT WAS RELIED UPON HEAVILY IN THIS FORECAST. THE GFS HAS UPPER
LEVEL RIDING IN PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGING ONLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
DURING THIS PERIOD AS A RESULT. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND GRADUALLY
RAISED TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IF THIS VERIFIES...WE MAY
GET INTO OUR FIRST 100 DEGREE HIGHS HERE BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. THAT`S A LONG WAYS OUT OF COURSE...BUT THE PATTERN
LOOKS HOT AND DRY FOR NOW.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 92 75 93 75 91 / 40 30 40 20 30
WACO, TX 88 73 90 73 92 / 50 30 50 20 30
PARIS, TX 91 72 90 72 89 / 30 20 40 20 40
DENTON, TX 91 73 91 73 91 / 30 30 40 20 30
MCKINNEY, TX 92 74 92 74 91 / 30 30 40 20 40
DALLAS, TX 92 75 92 74 91 / 40 30 40 20 40
TERRELL, TX 93 76 93 76 92 / 50 30 30 20 40
CORSICANA, TX 89 73 90 73 91 / 50 30 50 20 40
TEMPLE, TX 90 72 90 73 90 / 40 30 50 20 30
MINERAL WELLS, TX 89 72 90 71 90 / 50 40 30 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
30/69
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
411 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN PLACE
FROM SULPHUR SPRINGS TO BURLESON TO BRECKENRIDGE. THERE WERE WEAK
GRADIENTS OF BOTH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WITH COOLER VALUES LOCATED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LOOKING AT THE
GRADIENT OF EITHER TEMPERATURE OR DEW POINT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THIS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OF THETA-E WITH A CHANGE
OF ALMOST 8 KELVIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AS A
RESULT...THINK THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY. IT MAY HOLD SOME
IDENTITY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL IF SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ACCURATE. THE 07Z RAP INDICATED THAT THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDS UP TO THE 850 MB LEVEL WHERE THE THETA-E GRADIENT IS EVEN
MORE PRONOUNCED...SHOWING A THETA-E CHANGE OF 12-16 KELVIN ALONG
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE MAIN POINT OF THIS ANALYSIS
IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS AS THROUGH IT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
REMAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA AS WE APPROACH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
OF THE DAY. IF IT STILL EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON...IT COULD BE A BIG
PLAYER IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION TODAY.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TODAY...ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS IMPORTANT FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY AS MOST GUIDANCE ADVERTISES QPF ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SOMETIME
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF WHEN THIS QPF
SHOWS UP IS THE KEY DIFFERENCE AMONGST THE MODELS. MANY OF THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW QPF OR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. IF
THIS OCCURS...THE CONVECTION THAT IS INITIATED WILL PROBABLY BE
RELATIVELY WEAK IN NATURE AND MAY BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT OVER THE BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED A NICE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. IT`S HARD TO SAY WHETHER THIS
CONVECTION WOULD BE ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE BOUNDARY OR NOT IF IT
DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. IF NOTHING ELSE...IT WILL ADD CLOUDS OVER
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWING DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO
REDUCE THE IDENTITY OF THE BOUNDARY BY WARMING THE COOL SIDE AND
KEEPING THE WARM SIDE SHIELDED FROM SUNSHINE/HEATING. IT`S
PROBABLY FOR THIS REASON THAT MOST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
MEMBERS HAVE MORNING CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.
IF THERE IS LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...THIS BOUNDARY PROBABLY HAS A BETTER CHANCE AT INITIATING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS USUALLY FAIRLY RELIABLE WHEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SIGNAL OF
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG A COMMON BOUNDARY AROUND A COMMON
TIME. THEREFORE...THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE THAT
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING RATHER THAN HOLDING
OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ONLY REASON TO DOUBT SOME OF THE MODELS SHOWING THIS MORNING
CONVECTION IS THE LACK OF RESPONSE IN THE REST OF THE MASS FIELDS
WHERE THE QPF IS LOCATED. THAT IS...SOME POSITIVE QPF SHOWS UP
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THIS SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE...HOWEVER THERE
IS NO INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND NO LOW-LEVEL
RESPONSE IN THE WIND FIELDS. BRINGING MODEL LOGIC INTO THE REAL
WORLD...THAT`S LIKE SAYING...WE`RE GOING TO HAVE RAIN...BUT NO
CLOUDS. IT DOESN`T MAKE SENSE. AS A RESULT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE MODELS ARE SIMPLY PUTTING QPF OUT THERE BECAUSE THERE`S A
BOUNDARY AND WE HAVE SOME MOISTURE AND CAPE IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.
FOR MODELS THAT DO NOT SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...THOSE SOLUTIONS REALLY RAMP UP THE CAPE AND MOISTURE
POOLING SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE MODELS
INDICATE LOWER TO MID-70S DEW POINTS POOLING UP JUST SOUTH OF THE
DFW AREA THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN OVER 4000 J/KG OF CAPE.
GRANTED...THERE IS VERY WEAK WIND SHEAR...SO EVEN IF STORMS
DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THEY PROBABLY WILL NOT BE VERY
ORGANIZED. THAT SAID...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH 4000 J/KG OF
CAPE WILL GET BIG...FAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MICROBURSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT. ALSO...IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT DEVELOP THIS MORNING...THE BOUNDARY WILL
PROBABLY MOVE A BIT WITH THE WESTERN PART OF THE BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTH. IN THIS SCENARIO THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NEAR A BOWIE
TO GRAPEVINE TO EMORY LINE BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. WITH WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A COUPLE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON
JUST IN CASE THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT.
THIS FORECAST PROBLEM SHOULD AT LEAST BE FAIRLY EASY TO FIGURE OUT
TODAY...IF WE END UP WITH SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT
PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...WE HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE AT WASHING OUT OUR BOUNDARY...MAKING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LESS LIKELY. IF THERE IS BRIEF OR NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED
STRONG STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS IN THE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE TODAY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW TODAY WILL PLAY OUT. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST MODELS HAVE THIS BOUNDARY GETTING WASHED OUT BY
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR TONIGHT...IF WE GET A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY LINGERING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...IF NOTHING GETS GOING THIS AFTERNOON...OUR ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
CONSISTENTLY SHOW A SQUALL LINE ORGANIZING LATE TONIGHT. IF THE
SQUALL LINE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH...IT WILL CREATE ITS OWN MINI-
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT COULD PROPAGATE IT SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH TEXAS
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT AS GREAT AS
IT WAS FOR YESTERDAY MORNING...MAINLY BECAUSE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
SOMEWHAT LACKING IN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS THAT HELPS BALANCE COLD-POOL STRENGTH AND
REALLY HELPS LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS BECOME ORGANIZED INTO THEIR
OWN MINI-WEATHER SYSTEM. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR...THESE STORM COMPLEXES STILL BECOME QUITE STRONG WHERE THEY
ORIGINATE...BUT TEND TO LOSE THEIR COLD POOLS AND DISSIPATE WHEN
THEY BEGIN TO PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. BECAUSE OF THE
LACK OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...ONLY WENT WITH 30 POPS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ASSUMING
THIS PANS OUT...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ALSO...MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF A STRONGER THAN NORMAL SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST TOMORROW. AT LEAST THAT`S WHAT IT
LOOKS LIKE IN THE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS. AT ANY
RATE...WITH THE CONSISTENCY OF MODELS SHOWING QPF...WITH
CLOUDS...MOVING IN FROM THE GULF COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WENT
AHEAD AND KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE WEDNESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SORT OF MEANDER SOUTH AND JUST BECOME A GENERAL
WEAKNESS ALOFT STUCK IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGES TO OUR WEST AND
EAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY A BIT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SPREADING SOME FORCING
FOR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA. AS A RESULT...KEPT
HIGHEST POP CHANCES FOR THURSDAY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
AS THIS IS FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE AND STILL WELL WITHIN
THE MODEL CONSENSUS LOCATION OF THE COL/UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS AREA.
WE WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH LITTLE CAP IN PLACE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...SO KEPT
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A
STRONG WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARDS OVER THE
ROCKIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS
RESULTING IN LAYING THE NORTHERN MEXICO UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTH
TEXAS BY FRIDAY...AND HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT INDICATE THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STAY WEST RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT
WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE
GFS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND AS
RESULT WAS RELIED UPON HEAVILY IN THIS FORECAST. THE GFS HAS UPPER
LEVEL RIDING IN PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGING ONLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
DURING THIS PERIOD AS A RESULT. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND GRADUALLY
RAISED TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IF THIS VERIFIES...WE MAY
GET INTO OUR FIRST 100 DEGREE HIGHS HERE BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. THAT`S A LONG WAYS OUT OF COURSE...BUT THE PATTERN
LOOKS HOT AND DRY FOR NOW.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1140 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
/6Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT WITH AREA WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN MOST LOCATIONS. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT RESIDE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. ONE IS
VERY NEAR THE METROPLEX BASED ON EARLIER RADAR DATA...BUT THIS MAY
BECOME SO DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT THAT IT IS A NON PLAYER IN ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE OTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY IS
SOUTH OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS...JUST SOUTH OF WACO. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. IT IS RATHER DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT UPPER DISTURBANCE BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
WEST TEXAS AND IT MAKES SENSE THAT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
MODESTLY MOIST COMPARED TO THE LAST 24 HOURS...BUT IS STILL VERY
WEAKLY CAPPED...SO ANY FORCING WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY
MAY IGNITE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL HAVE A VCSH IN AT WACO FROM
11-16Z TO ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY. IF SHOWERS/STORMS DO DEVELOP
QUICKLY TONIGHT...THIS TIMING/IMPACT WOULD NEED TO BE AMENDED.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE
OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. THIS
CHANCE WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER TUESDAY THAN ON MONDAY...GIVEN
THAT THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE ANY STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A
COMPLEX OF STORMS LIKE THERE WAS ON MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 92 75 93 75 91 / 40 30 40 20 30
WACO, TX 88 73 90 73 92 / 50 30 50 20 30
PARIS, TX 91 72 90 72 89 / 30 20 40 20 40
DENTON, TX 91 73 91 73 91 / 30 30 40 20 30
MCKINNEY, TX 92 74 92 74 91 / 30 30 40 20 40
DALLAS, TX 92 75 92 74 91 / 40 30 40 20 40
TERRELL, TX 93 76 93 76 92 / 50 30 30 20 40
CORSICANA, TX 89 73 90 73 91 / 50 30 50 20 40
TEMPLE, TX 90 72 90 73 90 / 40 30 50 20 30
MINERAL WELLS, TX 89 72 90 71 90 / 50 40 30 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1112 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Stratus will develop along the I-10 corridor during the morning
hours Tuesday, going with MVFR CIGS at the KSOA and KJCT terminals
after 10Z Tuesday. VFR conditions will return by 15Z Tuesday.
Keeping the other terminals VFR the next 24 hours. A complex or two
of storms have developed over southeast New Mexico and the Big Bend
region. However, these storms will propagate southeast over the
Permian Basin and Trans Pecos through the early morning hours and
stay west of the terminals.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
UPDATE...
An outflow boundary continues to move southwest across the
Concho Valley and North Edwards Plateau late this evening.
Isolated thunderstorms that developed along this boundary earlier
this evening have dissipated with the loss of heating. The main
concern for the rest of tonight will be the potential for showers
and thunderstorms to move in from the west towards daybreak.
Thunderstorms are currently affecting portions of eastern New
Mexico, with the strongest convection located across southeast
New Mexico north of Carlsbad.
Uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and weather storms
will organize into a southeast propagating MCS overnight. The Texas
Tech WRF is the most aggressive model and brings a weakening band
of convection into western sections after 4 AM, with activity
dissipating across central sections through early morning. The
latest NAM and HRRR show most of the convection remaining west of
the forecast area. Given the uncertainty, kept chance POPs in the
forecast generally west of a Haskell to Sonora line overnight and
lowered POPs to slight chance elsewhere. Also tweaked temps and
dewpoints to account for trends.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals this evening into the early
morning hours. Stratus will develop along the I-10 corridor during
the morning hours Tuesday, going with MVFR CIGS at the KSOA and KJCT
terminals after 10Z Tuesday. VFR conditions will return by 15Z
Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible around the KSJT
terminal through mid evening and carrying VCTS through 03Z. A
complex or two of storms will develop well west of the terminals
later tonight and some of this activity may make it east into West
Central Texas by Tuesday morning. Confidence is not high enough to
put in the terminals and will watch radar and satellite trends this
evening.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)
Showers and thunderstorms moved out of the area early this
afternoon, leaving partly to mostly cloudy skies and a very humid
air mass along with leftover outflow boundaries from the overnight
into early morning thunderstorms. Aloft, a shortwave trough is
moving east into New Mexico this afternoon helping to set off
thunderstorms across the mountains of New Mexico. Thunderstorms
were also developing across the mountains near and west of the Big
Bend area in Texas. A few isolated thunderstorms could develop
by late this afternoon or evening along some of the previously
mentioned boundaries.
For tonight, expect another cluster of thunderstorms to get
organized to our west or northwest and move into our area
overnight. Thunderstorms are already developing across the
mountains of New Mexico, and upscale growth into a cluster of
thunderstorms is expected as the shortwave moving into the area
approaches. Several models indicate an MCS moving east through the
Permian Basin overnight, and into our area by early tomorrow
morning. Timing the arrival of these thunderstorms is difficult,
but expect the bulk of the activity to be after midnight rather
than before. Locally heavy rainfall, and dangerous lightning would
be the primary concerns with these thunderstorms.
Additional thunderstorm activity is possible tomorrow afternoon,
especially if the atmosphere can destabilize during the afternoon
hours. The favored area for redevelopment tomorrow appears to be
northwest of the area near the Texas panhandle region where
another approaching shortwave will interact with persistent moist
upslope flow.
Temperatures will remain near normal with lows near 70 tonight,
highs around 90 tomorrow.
20
LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Weak northwest flow aloft will continue over our area Tuesday night
and Wednesday. Could have a leftover disturbance (possibly a MCV)
over our eastern counties Tuesday evening and early Tuesday night.
The NAM brings a weak upper level disturbance southeast across the
TX Panhandle and toward our far northern counties by early
Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms would be possible
with both of these features. With this in mind, carrying 30 PoPs
across our eastern and far northern counties Tuesday night, with
20 PoPs elsewhere. Have a lingering low PoP for the eastern part
of our area on Wednesday, which will be on the eastern periphery
of the upper level high.
On Thursday and Friday, the upper high will remain positioned
over Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest, with an eastward
extension to near the Big Bend region. An upper shear axis is
progged to set up to the east of our area. Cannot rule out a low
possibility of showers/thunderstorms in some of our northern or
eastern counties Thursday and Friday. However, with lack of
confidence in placement of weak disturbances aloft or surface
boundaries, prefer to leave PoPs out for now.
For the weekend into the first part of next week, the 12Z GFS and
ECMWF are in better agreement in gradually building the heights
aloft over our area. While specific differences still exist, both
models show an overall shift with the upper high to the north
across the Southwestern states, while expanding it to the east
into Texas and the Southern Plains. This would effectively shut
off rain chances for our area, and lead to a warming trend in
temperatures. However, with fairly moist ground conditions and
evapotranspirative effects, along with south-southeasterly low-
level flow keeping an influx of Gulf moisture into our area,
believe the warming trend will be tempered. In addition, the GFS
keeps the low-level thermal ridge to our west, with only a limited
eastward expansion. With these indications, going with highs below
the GFS MOS guidance for our area.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 71 90 72 92 72 / 20 40 20 20 10
San Angelo 70 90 71 92 72 / 30 30 20 10 5
Junction 71 89 71 91 72 / 20 20 20 20 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
846 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE TROUGH HAS WORKED INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING WITH MOST
SHOWERS NOW EAST OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL FAINT SURFACE COOL
FRONT TO THE NW. WESTERLY FLOW IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE HAS ALSO
ACTED TO LIMIT ADDED INSTABILITY AND LIFT WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHRA
SEEN UPSTREAM. SOME OF THIS COVERAGE COULD SLIDE INTO THE FAR NW
ZONES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT OVERALL APPEARS MOST WILL GO
MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS DEWPOINTS FALL A BIT AND WINDS
TURN NW. THUS HAVE REMOVED MOST POPS PER THE LATEST HRRR EXCEPT
FOR THE UPSLOPE NW WHERE A SHOWER OR TWO COULD OCCUR THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES BUT EVEN THAT APPEARS
IFFY. ALSO DECREASED CLOUD COVER SOONER WITH PC TO MOSTLY CLEAR
OUTSIDE OF THE UPSLOPE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND BEEFED UP FOG
COVERAGE ESPCLY SE WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURRED. LOW TEMPS
AGAIN IN THE 60S EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER TONIGHT WESTERN VALLEYS
GIVEN SOME DRYING BEFORE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPS.
ON THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION ALLOWING A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS TO SPREAD SOUTH. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ALONG WITH
UPSLOPE NW FLOW. WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION
ALLOWED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 90
DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
OVERALL MODELS SIMILAR IN HAVING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF US
THU NIGHT-FRIDAY. SFC HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS TIME...WITH SFC FLOW TURNING MORE EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
START TO FADE THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...DUE TO INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE.
NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD...BUT GIVEN SOME
CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LVLS AND HIGHER PWATS...THINK THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO FRI NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.
TEMPS FOLLOWED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS WITH LOWS ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THU NIGHT IF CLOUDS ARE LESS OVER THE
MTNS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. LIGHT EAST FLOW
AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT HIGHS FROM BEING TOO WARM FRI BUT
STILL 80S CWA WIDE...EXCEPT 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPS WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES FRI NIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 60S MTNS TO
UPPER 60S EAST. SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR ON HIGHS BUT COULD BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER IF MORE SUN OCCURS. GOING WITH 80S CWA
WIDE...LOWER 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
YOU CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME ACROSS OUR AREA THIS PERIOD.
MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN RESPECT TO UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
U.S. BUT OVERALL APPEARS THE VIRGINIAS AND NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE
STUCK IN AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST WED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
BACKDOOR TOWARD THE NRN CWA BY MIDWEEK.
OVERALL...DECIDED TO CUT POPS BACK FROM LIKELY TO CHANCE GIVEN LACK
OF ANY REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM SYNOPTICALLY THIS PERIOD. STILL SOME
FOLKS WILL GET RAINED AND STORMED ON AT SOME POINT DURING THIS TIME.
BUT GENERALLY EXPECT YOUR USUAL SCATTERING OF STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNINGS.
MODELS DO FAVOR MOISTURE STAYING RAMPED UP WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUNSHINE. EXPECT MUGGY NIGHTS AND VERY WARM/HOT HUMID DAYS. WITH
MOISTURE CONTENT STAYING ELEVATED THINK HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY CLOSE
TO SEASONAL NORMS OR JUST ABOVE. STILL THE HUMIDITY WILL ADD TO THE
HEAT INDEX FACTOR BY A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST OF KDAN WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHRA NEARING KLYH WHICH
SHOULD AFFECT THAT VICINITY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHER
ISOLATED SHRA MAY DROP SE TOWARD KLWB AND KBLF...OTRW PUNCH OF
WEST WINDS BEHIND THE WEAK EASTERN SURFACE TROF AXIS WILL KEEP VFR
FOR THE MOST PART AND WITHOUT MANY ADDED SHRA THIS EVENING.
TROF LOOKS TO BE CLEAR OF ALL SITES AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING WINDS
TO SWING AROUND TO THE WEST FOLLOWED BY THE TRAILING SURFACE COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DOWNSLOPE AND CLEARING TO
KROA/KLYH/KDAN BUT UPSLOPE AND CLOUDS TO KBCB/KLWB/KBLF. KBCB WILL
BE LEAST AFFECTED BUT BELIEVE KBLF AND KLWB WILL HAVE LOW CIGS
OVERNIGHT AND THEY WILL PERSIST FOR A BIT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AT SITES THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL OVER THE WEST. FEEL THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG WILL BE BLUE
RIDGE WEST WITH MORE ISOLATED PATCHY NATURE POSSIBLE AT KLYH/KDAN
WHERE RAINFALL WAS LIGHT OR PASSED NEARBY. THEREFORE KEEPING IN
THE IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS AT BOTH KBLF/KLWB AND INCLUDING
MVFR AT KBCB WITH A BRIEF MVFR TEMPO AT KLYH/KDAN.
THINGS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BY MID MORNING THURSDAY AS SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON NW WINDS AT 7-15 KTS ALLOWING A RETURN TO
VFR FOR MOST SPOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT OCNL 4-6K FT CU
CIGS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONVECTION LOOKS ISOLATED
AT BEST SO KEEPING OUT MENTION ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGES INLAND FROM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE
EXCEPTION FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE WEST...WHERE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INCLUDING LOCAL BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.
RETURN OF WARM AND MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WERT
NEAR TERM...JH/KK
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/MBS/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
754 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES EAST OUT OF
THE MIDWEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS WILL PULL IN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR BACK INTO THE MID APPALACHIAN AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION...MAINTAINING THE THREAT FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
A COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY...
FURTHER INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT TUESDAY...
INCREASED POPS SOME ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT AREAS AND INTO
THE NEW RIVER VALLEY/SE WV PER LATEST HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS OF
PERSISTENT -SHRA DEVELOPING FROM NEAR KDAN TO NEAR KBLF. MERGED
THESE INCREASED POPS INTO EXISTING POPS AROUND 18Z. NO TSRA
MENTIONED UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS OF 310 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY VEER INTO THE SOUTH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS AWAY
FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES EAST OUT
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCREASING WARM MOIST ADVECTION EXPECTED
TO FINALLY OVERCOME ANY LINGERING WEDGE...WHICH SHOULD BE
DISPLACED MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THETA E AXIS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS INTO
TONIGHT...WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH FAVORING ANOTHER
DAY WHERE ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN AN
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH ONLY A VERY LOW THREAT EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WHICH WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE/WEDGE.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STEERING WINDS/SHEAR REMAIN ANEMIC AND
WEAK...RESPECTIVELY...IMPLYING NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
HOWEVER...INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER... ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEST...WILL HELP INCREASE RAIN EFFICIENCY IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS
THAT DRIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN NOT ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT WHERE
TRAINING OF CELLS (OR TOPOGRAPHICAL ANCHORING OF CELLS) OCCURS...
NEGLIGIBLE DYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD LIMIT THREAT TO MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE SUCH THAT NO HEADLINE APPEARS NEEDED AT THE PRESENT TIME.
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY AS WARM ADVECTION YIELDS A
24-HOUR NET INCREASE OF ABOUT 2C AT 850 MILLIBARS...BUT WILL AGAIN
BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY PERSISTENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND TIMING/
MOVEMENT OF REDEVELOPING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED COOL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A HEALTHY SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE NE AND MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. WHILE THE MAIN DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA
ACROSS OH/NORTHERN WV/PA...THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A RELATIVELY
POTENT LATE JUNE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PATTERN THROUGH THESE PERIODS. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAIN. INSTABILITY IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE...BUT THIS IS
PREDICATED ON FULL SUNSHINE. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ABUNDANT EARLY
MORNING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...DAYTIME INSOLATION IS IN
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BETTER HEATING CAN BE EXPECTED AND THUS BETTER
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. GIVEN THIS CONSIDERATION...FEEL THAT MODEL
INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND LIS TO -4 ARE
LIKELY OVERDONE. IN ADDITION...WITH THE MAIN DYNAMICS TRACKING
WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...INDICATED SHEAR IS NIL. WITH CONDITIONS AT
LEAST ONE TO TWO NOTCHES ABOVE A NORMAL PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORM
ENVIRONMENT GIVEN THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...THE THREAT FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ALBEIT
SPC DOES NOT CURRENTLY HAVE EVEN A 5 PERCENT RISK ACROSS OUR
REGION...FOCUSING MORE ON THE OH/PA REGION. QPF POTENTIAL
SIMILAR...MAINLY FOCUSED NORTH OF THE REGION. FEEL THAT WINDS
ALOFT ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG.
HOWEVER...WITH PWS OVER 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE GENERALLY
LACK OF RAINFALL IN MOST AREAS RECENTLY...THIS SHOULD NOT BE A
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM.
FOR THU...MODELS NOW PAINTING A MUCH CLEARER PICTURE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION
TO GREATLY LIMIT...PERHAPS EVEN END THE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE NW FLOW UPSLOPE THROUGH THE
ALLEGHANYS AND ESPECIALLY IN FAR SW VA/NW NC MOUNTAINS NEAREST THE
STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS IN THESE
AREAS...BUT HAVE NOW ADVERTISED UNMENTIONABLE POPS FOR THE
PIEDMONT AND MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT.
FOR FRI...SHOULD SEE MOISTURE STARTING TO CREEP BACK TO THE
EAST...ALTHOUGH AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD MANAGE TO HOLD
ONTO ONE MORE MOSTLY SHRA/TSRA FREE DAY. HIGH CHANCE POPS WILL
SPREAD BACK INTO SW VA/NW NC AND EVEN SE WV...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
I-77.
SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR FOR THU AND
IN THE EAST FRI. OTHERWISE...WED AND MUCH OF THE PERIOD WEST OF
I-77 WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND MIN TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES ADVERTISED AMONG THE
GFS AND ECMWF GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE OVERALL THEME IS FOR A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT...E.G. 588-590DM AT 500MB AND
850MB TEMPS RISING INTO THE +20C RANGE...THE ECMWF IS
SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER AND DRIER THAN THE GFS. THE GFS ESSENTIALLY
ADVERTISES A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE REGION FROM
NW TO SE WITH A SERIES OF WAVES RIDING ALONG THE FRONT AND CHANCE
TO GOOD CHANCE DIURNAL TSRA ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF ADVERTISES A MUCH
STRONGER RIDGE...SUBSIDENCE...AND SHOVES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL
TO THE NE OF THE REGION. FEEL THAT THE REALITY IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE
IN BETWEEN. THUS...HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ALREADY
ADVERTISED DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
MAX/MIN TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY MIN TEMPS...BUT IF THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING
MORE ACCURATE WITH +22C 850MB TEMPS OPPOSED TO THE GFS +17C TEMPS
DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME...WE COULD START TO SEE MORE 90S
CREEPING INTO THE CWA...ALONG WITH HEAT INDICES CREEPING CLOSE TO
100 IN SOME AREAS WHERE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70./TEMPS STAY ABOVE
NORMAL AT NIGHT DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS STAY CLOSER TO WHAT WE EXPECT FOR
LATE JUNE...WITH UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 80S REST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND MID 80S/NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT TUESDAY...
WEAK WEDGE AND RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPSLOPE ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EXTENSIVE/WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...FOCUS LATER IN THE DAY WILL BE ON UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
AND FRONT TO COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TO BRING SCT-NMRS
SHRA/TSRA BACK TO THE CWA. THINKING FOR TODAY IS THAT MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE BETTER
DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE
AIR MASS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. NET RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING...IMPROVING TO LOW END VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AFT 18Z AND AFFECT PRINCIPALLY BLF/LWB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THEN CREEP CLOSER TO BCB/ROA AFT 00Z. MOSTLY VCTS AT
THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE PROB30 FOR BLF/LWB
AFT 18Z. WITH THE LOW CLOUDS...FOG IS NOT AN ISSUE THIS MORNING.
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE/FRONT...SO THE
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR OVERNIGHT SHRA AND ISOLD
TSRA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IN FACT...SOME ACTIVITY
MAY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS IN -SHRA/-TSRA
BR...ESPECIALLY AFT 06Z.
WINDS...SSE-SSW THROUGH THE PERIOD...5-10KTS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LOW END GUSTS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION
DISCUSSION...
NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TIMING REMAINS A BIT IN QUESTION AS POTENTIAL
EARLIER ARRIVAL COULD MEAN MORE COVERAGE IN THE EAST INCLUDING
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN STRONGER STORMS...WHILE BETTER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION IF THE
FRONT SLOWS.
MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT
OVERHEAD OR PUSHES TO THE SE...BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH
HEATING FOR ADDED DIURNAL CONVECTION AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.
MOISTURE LIKELY RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH A REPEAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION FRIDAY LEADING TO BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR. THIS TREND LOOKS TO PERSIST AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH AT
LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION MAKING FOR OCNL MVFR/IFR IN SPOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTRW AREAS OF IFR FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN THE PREVIOUS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WERT
NEAR TERM...WERT/RAB
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/WP
AVIATION...JH/RAB/WERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
139 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
DRIFT EAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES
SLOWLY FROM OUT OF THE MIDWEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE
SYSTEMS WILL PULL IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR BACK INTO THE MID
APPALACHIAN AND MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO MID WEEK...MAINTAINING A
DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 845 PM EDT MONDAY...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN LACKING FOR A CHANGE THIS EVENING AS THE COMBO
OF THE RESIDUAL WEAK WEDGE...LACK OF UPPER FORCING AND ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO KEEP SHOWERS LIMITED TO THE EXTREME
WEST/SW. THIS IN AN AREA OF RETURN SE FLOW AS BETTER LIFT REMAINS
WELL TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. LATEST HRRR TRIES TO
SNEAK A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS NW NC/SW VA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER
THIS LOOKS IFFY GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...SO HAVE ALREADY REMOVED
MOST POPS EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS SW
OVERNIGHT ESPCLY THE NW N CAROLINA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS PER DEEPER
UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING WEAK INSTABILITY. DO EXPECT THE WEDGE
TO FLOP BACK TO THE WEST WITH CURRENT STRATO- CU ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE LIKELY TO LOWER AND EXPAND FURTHER AFTER MIDNIGHT UNDER A
WEAK BUT MORE EASTERLY TRAJECTORY. ALSO SOME FOG AROUND BUT GIVEN
LIGHT MIXING EARLY AND CLOUDS APPEARS ONLY PATCHY COVERAGE FOR THE
MOST PART. LOW TEMPS ON TRACK WITH SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTS IN
THE VALLEYS...OTRW MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S LOOK GOOD.
THE WEDGE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH
PULSE STORMS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST STARTING IN
THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MID
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITIES WILL BE GREATER TOMORROW THEREFORE THE
CHANCE FOR SEEING MORE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING COMPARED TO
TODAY ARE GOOD. PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO INCREASE TOMORROW BUT
HOVERING AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IS LOW WHILE LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT MONDAY...
ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SFC FRONT EDGE EAST INTO THE MTNS BY 18Z WED THEN SLOW DOWN AS
IT ENCOUNTERS THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. MODELS FAVOR EXITING THE
SHORTWAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT...THEN MODELS STILL BRING WEAK
ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THURSDAY...WHILE FRONT STALLS
OVER THE ERN VA/NC AREA. THINK THURSDAY WILL BE DRIER FOR MOST...BUT
COULD SEE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND AND WITH SOME CONVERGENCE
IN THE LOW LVLS AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE.
ATTM...WEDNESDAY WILL BE WETTER/STORMIER WITH 40-60 POPS...HIGHER IN
THE NW CLOSER TO THE UPPER SUPPORT.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS NOT HIGHLIGHTING ANY SVR THREAT.
TIMING OF CLOUDS/STORMS MAY OFFSET LOW LVL INSTABILITY/LAPSE
RATES...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SVR THREAT.
TEMPS REMAIN TYPICAL OF LATE JUNE. BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY SINK SOME...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING FROM THE MID
60S WEST TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. THE EAST WILL STAY SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM EDT MONDAY...
GOING TO SEE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IN THE REGION THIS PERIOD.
MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED IN THE LOW LVLS WITH WEAK WAVES ALOFT HARD
TO PINPOINT EARLY ON TIMING WISE. RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK SUCH THAT THREAT OF STORMS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENINGS. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT OVERNIGHT SHOWERS OR
STORM THREAT GIVEN THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LVL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXISTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE SOUTHEAST BUT WIND FIELDS ARE WEAK. STILL WILL SEE AT LEAST
THE POPS IN THE 30-50 RANGE FOR FRI-SAT.
TEMPS STAY ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS STAY CLOSER TO WHAT WE EXPECT FOR
LATE JUNE...WITH UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 80S REST OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AND MID 80S/NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT TUESDAY...
REDEVELOPMENT OF WEAK WEDGE WILL SUPPORT GRADUAL EXPANSION AND
LOWERING OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
EXPECTED TO DIP BACK INTO MVFR RANGE BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH PATCHY
AREAS OF IFR/LIFR EXPECTED IN LOW LYING AREAS AND/OR IN AREAS
WHERE CLOUDS ARE MINIMIZED.
ONSET OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING INTO
MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AS SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES DRIFTING
EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE TROF SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKENING OF
WEDGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MVFR CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY
LIFT BACK TO MAINLY BKN VFR CU CIGS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH INCREASING THREAT OF WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH
THIS IN MIND...MAINTAINED MENTION OF VCTS AT BOTH KBLF/KLWB
BEGINNING AROUND 18Z/200 PM EDT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TIMING REMAINS A BIT IN QUESTION AS POTENTIAL
EARLIER ARRIVAL COULD MEAN MORE COVERAGE IN THE EAST INCLUDING
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN STRONGER STORMS...WHILE BETTER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION IF THE
FRONT SLOWS.
MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT
OVERHEAD OR PUSHES TO THE SE...BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH
HEATING FOR ADDED DIURNAL CONVECTION AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.
MOISTURE LIKELY RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH A REPEAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION FRIDAY LEADING TO BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR. THIS TREND LOOKS TO PERSIST AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH AT
LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION MAKING FOR OCNL MVFR/IFR IN SPOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTRW AREAS OF IFR FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN THE PREVIOUS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WERT/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/RCS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/RCS/WERT
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
856 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
BULK OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE CWFA LATE
THIS EVENING. STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
STILL ONGOING OVR CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES ALONG WITH WK SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF CHEYENNE. HAVE TWEAKED PRECIP
CHANCES GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS OVR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HAVE
COMPLETELY REMOVED MENTION AFTER 10 PM. COULD BE A TAD EARLY...BUT
THE DRYING TREND WILL REMAIN INTACT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. IN
AN EARLIER UPDATE...CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
INITIAL LOOK AT 00Z NAM OUTPUT CONTINUE TO BE POINT TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE
RIDING EAST ACROSS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
THIS FEATURE WAS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROBUST CONVECTION ALONG
AND TO THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILE WAS MODEST
AT 30-40 KT COMBINED WITH SBCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. A FUNNEL CLOUD
WAS OBSERVED JUST WEST OF CHEYENNE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEVERAL STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST
WY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION
EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST INTO THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
EVENING PER THE HRRR MODEL. A SEVERE TSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
9 PM MDT FOR ALL BUT CARBON COUNTY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER MODES
WILL BE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL FUNNEL CLOUDS AND
EVEN A WEAK TORNADO IN THE VICINITY OF BOUNDARY MERGERS.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING. COULD
SEE SOME SHALLOW MIST OR LIGHT FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY FOR THE
PLAINS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. LOOKING AT A
MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY WITH MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT. SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LAYING
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS DRIFTS CLOSER TO
THE WY-NE BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDING DATA SHOWS THE
700-850MB THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH AXIS OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY /SBCAPES 2500-3500 J/KG/ ALONG AND EAST OF
THE WY-NE BORDER...DEPICTED BY SPC/S DAY TWO SLIGHT RISK AREA.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. WEAKER CONVECTION
MAY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT NORTH OF A DOUGLAS TO
ALLIANCE LINE WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROVIDING MORE INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION. RISK FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...WITH ISOLATED STRONG TSTORMS POSSIBLE
FOR THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLE.
UNDER THE PRESENCE OF THE THERMAL RIDGE THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS.
700MB TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM 15C THURSDAY TO 8C FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
FAIRLY QUIET IN THE LONG RANGE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY EVENING WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
MODELS SHOW A PLEASANT WEEKEND SETTING UP FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED TSTORM NORTH OF A LINE FROM DOUGLAS TO
ALLIANCE NEBRASKA...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY
AS A COOL FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL LOWER BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...BUT
IT WILL STILL BE WARM. AS WITH MOST CASES OF FROPA...CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MONDAY EVENING...SO KEPT POP AROUND
20 PERCENT. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
LUSK WYOMING TO NEAR KIBM NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AT
15 KNOTS THIS EVENING. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN AS
WELL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM KSNY NORTHWARD TO KAIA. ANY
LOW CIGS OR FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE SOME
WETTING RAINFALL...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AT 10 TO 15
PERCENT. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER HUMIDITIES ALONG WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAHN
SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
530 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE
RIDING EAST ACROSS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
THIS FEATURE WAS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROBUST CONVECTION ALONG
AND TO THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILE WAS MODEST
AT 30-40 KT COMBINED WITH SBCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. A FUNNEL CLOUD
WAS OBSERVED JUST WEST OF CHEYENNE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEVERAL STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST
WY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION
EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST INTO THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
EVENING PER THE HRRR MODEL. A SEVERE TSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
9 PM MDT FOR ALL BUT CARBON COUNTY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER MODES
WILL BE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL FUNNEL CLOUDS AND
EVEN A WEAK TORNADO IN THE VICINITY OF BOUNDARY MERGERS.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING. COULD
SEE SOME SHALLOW MIST OR LIGHT FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY FOR THE
PLAINS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. LOOKING AT A
MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY WITH MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT. SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LAYING
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS DRIFTS CLOSER TO
THE WY-NE BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDING DATA SHOWS THE
700-850MB THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH AXIS OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY /SBCAPES 2500-3500 J/KG/ ALONG AND EAST OF
THE WY-NE BORDER...DEPICTED BY SPC/S DAY TWO SLIGHT RISK AREA.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. WEAKER CONVECTION
MAY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT NORTH OF A DOUGLAS TO
ALLIANCE LINE WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROVIDING MORE INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION. RISK FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...WITH ISOLATED STRONG TSTORMS POSSIBLE
FOR THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLE.
UNDER THE PRESENCE OF THE THERMAL RIDGE THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS.
700MB TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM 15C THURSDAY TO 8C FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
FAIRLY QUIET IN THE LONG RANGE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY EVENING WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
MODELS SHOW A PLEASANT WEEKEND SETTING UP FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED TSTORM NORTH OF A LINE FROM DOUGLAS TO
ALLIANCE NEBRASKA...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY
AS A COOL FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL LOWER BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...BUT
IT WILL STILL BE WARM. AS WITH MOST CASES OF FROPA...CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MONDAY EVENING...SO KEPT POP AROUND
20 PERCENT. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
LUSK WYOMING TO NEAR KIBM NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AT
15 KNOTS THIS EVENING. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN AS
WELL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM KSNY NORTHWARD TO KAIA. ANY
LOW CIGS OR FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE SOME
WETTING RAINFALL...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AT 10 TO 15
PERCENT. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER HUMIDITIES ALONG WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1156 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
LARAMIE RANGE THEN SPREADING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE SEPARATING DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S WEST FROM THE 50S EAST.
LATEST HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS SHOWS MORE INTENSE CONVECTION
FORMING ALONG THE CHEYENNE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM THEN DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHEAST CO. WEAKER TSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WHERE LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. BASED ON SPC/S DAY ONE
OUTLOOK...MENTIONED RISK OF SEVERE FROM THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE
EAST THROUGH CHEYENNE AND KIMBALL. WILL BE MONITORING RADAR TRENDS
CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
SOME CONVECTION CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA INTO
THE NEB PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK IMPULSES MOVE BY IN
WNW UPPER FLOW. SHOULD SEE THIS CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER THIS
MORNING BEFORE EBBING SOMEWHAT. SHOWERS AND TSTRMS SHOULD THEN
RE-FIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MTNS AND PROCEED EASTWARD
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THOUGH UPPER
WINDS A BIT LESS TODAY THUS A BIT LESS SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL END
LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY WEDS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE
PLAINS ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY BETTER RAINS OCCUR. LITTLE CHANGE SEEN
FOR WEDNESDAY AS SFC FRONT REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE MTNS. A
BIT BETTER SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
PLAINS HOWEVER WITH INSTABILITY A BIT HIGHER GIVEN WARMER TEMPS.
CONVECTION MIGHT HANG ON OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WEDS NIGHT.
THURSDAY LOOKING PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF WEDS WITH WARM TEMPS AND
WDLY SCTD AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
STRONG OR SEVERE ONCE AGAIN. SFC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO EDGE EAST AND
SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLE
THURSDAY NIGHT. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
GOING FOR THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
NEW ECMWF RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
WESTERN WYOMING FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OUT WEST. LATEST GFS RUN KEEPS THESE SHOWERS
NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING. ECMWF SEEMS REASONABLE AND USED IT
FOR POPS FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. ECMWF SHOWING
SOME PRETTY HEFTY QPF OUT IN THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
OVER A HALF INCH. IF THIS CONTINUES...WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE TO
RAISE POPS MORE THAN WHAT I HAVE IN THERE RIGHT NOW.
SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...FORCING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM EAST AS WELL. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO HAVE SOME
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN WYOMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
SPILL INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES...SO DO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
GOING UP THAT WAY. DRY PATTERN FOR SUNDAY ON INTO THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED AS SHORTWAVES TRACK ACROSS MONTANA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AROUND 20Z
THIS AFTN ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. THESE STORMS WILL THEN
MOVE EASTWARD...WITH THE COVERAGE HIGHEST IN AREAS NEAR INTERSTATE
80. INCLUDED VCTS AT MANY OF THE SITES EVEN THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE
OF STORMS WILL STRETCH FROM LAR TO SNY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS OUTSIDE OF GUSTY WINDS FROM THE TSTMS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AFTER AROUND 06Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
CONCERNS TO REMAIN LOW OVERALL THIS WEEK WITH MANY AREAS SEEING
SOME RAIN AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER. DRIEST AREAS WILL BE OVER FAR
WESTERN DISTRICTS WITH MIN RHS LOWERING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT. WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR HOWEVER.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1117 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
LARAMIE RANGE THEN SPREADING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE SEPARATING DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S WEST FROM THE 50S EAST.
LATEST HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS SHOWS MORE INTENSE CONVECTION
FORMING ALONG THE CHEYENNE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM THEN DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHEAST CO. WEAKER TSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WHERE LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. BASED ON SPC/S DAY ONE
OUTLOOK...MENTIONED RISK OF SEVERE FROM THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE
EAST THROUGH CHEYENNE AND KIMBALL. WILL BE MONITORING RADAR TRENDS
CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
SOME CONVECTION CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA INTO
THE NEB PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK IMPULSES MOVE BY IN
WNW UPPER FLOW. SHOULD SEE THIS CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER THIS
MORNING BEFORE EBBING SOMEWHAT. SHOWERS AND TSTRMS SHOULD THEN
RE-FIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MTNS AND PROCEED EASTWARD
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THOUGH UPPER
WINDS A BIT LESS TODAY THUS A BIT LESS SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL END
LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY WEDS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE
PLAINS ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY BETTER RAINS OCCUR. LITTLE CHANGE SEEN
FOR WEDNESDAY AS SFC FRONT REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE MTNS. A
BIT BETTER SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
PLAINS HOWEVER WITH INSTABILITY A BIT HIGHER GIVEN WARMER TEMPS.
CONVECTION MIGHT HANG ON OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WEDS NIGHT.
THURSDAY LOOKING PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF WEDS WITH WARM TEMPS AND
WDLY SCTD AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
STRONG OR SEVERE ONCE AGAIN. SFC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO EDGE EAST AND
SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLE
THURSDAY NIGHT. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
GOING FOR THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
NEW ECMWF RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
WESTERN WYOMING FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OUT WEST. LATEST GFS RUN KEEPS THESE SHOWERS
NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING. ECMWF SEEMS REASONABLE AND USED IT
FOR POPS FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. ECMWF SHOWING
SOME PRETTY HEFTY QPF OUT IN THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
OVER A HALF INCH. IF THIS CONTINUES...WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE TO
RAISE POPS MORE THAN WHAT I HAVE IN THERE RIGHT NOW.
SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...FORCING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM EAST AS WELL. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO HAVE SOME
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN WYOMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
SPILL INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES...SO DO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
GOING UP THAT WAY. DRY PATTERN FOR SUNDAY ON INTO THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED AS SHORTWAVES TRACK ACROSS MONTANA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES UP NEAR KCDR AND KAIA THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THIS TO WANE LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
CONCERNS TO REMAIN LOW OVERALL THIS WEEK WITH MANY AREAS SEEING
SOME RAIN AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER. DRIEST AREAS WILL BE OVER FAR
WESTERN DISTRICTS WITH MIN RHS LOWERING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT. WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR HOWEVER.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1046 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
DEEPER CUMULUS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST HOUR IN THE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...BUT SO FAR NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF UPSCALE GROWTH AS THESE CELLS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
PLAINS. DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN AREAS NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THIS EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
MLCAPES OF 1000-1250 J/KG STRETCHING ALONG INTERSTATE 80 OVER THE
PLAINS COMBINED WITH 35-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. THE HRRR MODEL HAS A
LONE STORM MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE
LATE AFTN. SO VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT OVER LARAMIE COUNTY AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS GOING THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE GRADUALLY INCREASING
TEMPS AND INSTABILITY. FLOW ALOFT IS STILL WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY ON
TUES WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. DEW POINTS
INCH UP SLIGHTLY...SO CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE OVER TODAY WITH THE
GFS SHOWING AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG INTERSTATE 80. INSTABILITY DROPS
OFF TO 750 J/KG ACROSS CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY
BE OVER AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF A WHEATLAND TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE.
TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS AFTN. THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS STILL LOOKING LIKE
WED. A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WY DURING THE AFTN AND
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS BY WED AFTN ARE INTO THE UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S ALMOST EVERYWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER
THAN THE PRECEDING DAYS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE
AXIS...THERE IS STILL AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ITS A BIT
EARLY TO PINPOINT THE AREA OVER THE PLAINS THAN HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT IT WOULD SEEM TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAN MOVES INTO WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WEAK UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS YIELDS TO A BROADER UPPER TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT VEERS TO WESTERLY. SURFACE PATTERN WILL
BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH A RIDGE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND TROUGH ACROSS
THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH PASSING
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MINIMAL GIVEN WEAK SHEAR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FOR THE PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
DRIER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
60S AND 70S FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH THIS
EVENING...WITH THE BULK OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTH
INTO COLORADO. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH AREA
TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THRU.
DIFFICULT TO KNOW JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WILL BE...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN IT IS OCCURRING AT NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THE 06Z TAFS
WITH VCSH IN MANY AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITIES.
ADDITIONALLY...HAVE SIDED WITH PERSISTENCE IN AREA OF FOG/LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS THE PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM
LAST NIGHT. SO BROUGHT FOG INTO KLAR...KCDR AND A LOWER STRATUS
DECK INTO KCYS 08-14Z. STILL LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR TUESDAY. THE BEST
COVERAGE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE AT KLAR AND KCYS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
AGAIN SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SITES AFTER 00Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MIDWEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST AND THE BEST CHANCE
OF WETTING RAINS WILL EXIST TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SUCH
THAT MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 15
PERCENT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
233 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS OTHERWISE BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. NO BIG CHANGES
ON FRIDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHEN INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 90S AND LOWER 100S.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:33 AM PDT THURSDAY...LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN
REPORTED IN THE LAST HOUR AT KSFO...OAKLAND AND LIVERMORE. ABOUT
24 HOURS AGO THE LOW RESOLUTION GFS STARTED SHOWING SOME QPF
DURING THE 6-12Z TIME FRAME AND NOW WERE SEEING IT DEVELOP. THE
SHORT TERM RAP AND HRRR MODELS HAVE PICKED IT UP AS WELL WITH THE
PRECIP BAND NOW HEADING OVER THE EAST BAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
THE KMUX-88D RADAR RETURNS IN VCP 12. ITS BEEN A MILD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 60 WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S. BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY AREA AND LEFT
FRONT EXIT REGION OF 500 MB JET MAX BEST EXPLAINS THE DYNAMICAL
FORCING MOST LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR SCOPE. PER LATEST IR AND RADAR TRENDS
AS WELL AS THE RAP MODEL ANY DRIZZLE/SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
BAY AREA BY ABOUT 13Z THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THEN DECREASE WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON.
TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7. ON FRIDAY THE
FLOW WILL STAY ZONAL WITH RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. ITLL BE DRY OVER THE BAY AREA WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
A FEW DEGREES BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY BUT THE FLOW WILL BE
DISTINCTLY ONSHORE...KEEPING THE COAST COOL WITH MARINE CLOUDS
WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO THE 80S.
MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE MARINE LAYER
COMPRESSES TO LESS THAN 500 FEET. WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 90S
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH HOT TEMPERATURES WITHIN A
FEW MILES OF THE COAST WHILE LOWER 100S WILL OCCUR FOR THE INLAND
VALLEYS.
LATEST LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP WARM TO HOT WEATHER IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
COAST AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS WHILE PUSHING THE WARM HIGH BACK
TOWARDS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:22 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL USHER
IN ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...LOWERING CEILING IS FORECAST TONIGHT. TEMPO
LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CIGS TONIGHT. LIGHT DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 1:00 PM PDT WEDNESDAY...AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DECREASE WINDS TODAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AND MONTEREY BAY. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE
COMING WEEKEND. LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL MOVES INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM UNTIL 3 AM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: CANEPA
MARINE: MM
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
543 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
NH...NORTHWEST MA AND NORTHERN CT THIS EVENING...THEN AFFECT
MAINLY RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS ARRIVES THU NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VERY BUSY SHIFT THIS MORNING WITH FLOODING ACROSS WESTERN MA INTO
S NH OVERNIGHT...THEN MORE HEAVY SHOWERS OVER NE MA AT 5 AM. VERY
SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 ON LIGHT S-SW WINDS. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SEEN ON LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS.
SHORT RANGE MODELS...ESPECIALLY LATEST HRRR AND RAP13 DATA...
INDICATING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS OVER ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THOUGH WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP. MOST OF THE ACTION
LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS E MA AND RI INTO NE CT TODAY. LOW PRES WILL
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH H925 JET AT AROUND 30 KT
CROSSING EASTERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY WHICH WILL HELP ENHANCE MORE
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL
SET UP ACROSS RI/SE MA BY MIDDAY...WHICH WILL FOCUS THE POOLING
HIGH DEWPTS AS WELL AS INSTABILITY...WITH K INDICES TO THE MID 30S
AND CAPES UP TO 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THIS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST TOO
LONG...FROM AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AS WELL AS BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS. PRECIP SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE
BY SUNSET.
EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS S NH/N MA RANGING
TO THE LOWER-MID 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS STILL SIGNALING SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT ACROSS
S COASTAL AREAS EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH MAY SEE GUSTY WINDS AS IT
MOVES OFFSHORE. MODELS SHOWING GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT ACROSS S
COASTAL AREAS...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER
EARLY...THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CAUSE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TO REMAIN THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. ALSO NOTING HIGHER DEWPTS...HOLDING IN THE
MID 60S...LINGERING ACROSS THE CT VALLEY SO MIGHT SEE SOME LATE
NIGHT FOG DEVELOP THERE AS WELL.
TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN OVERNIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OUT OF
QUEBEC...WHICH WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION ON
N-NE WINDS. EXPECT SEA BREEZES ALONG THE SHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMS...
TOPPING OFF IN THE 70S WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE LOWER CT VALLEY
POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND MUCH LESS HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT
* DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
* VERY WARM AND HUMID EARLY NEXT WEEK
MODEL EVALUATION...
GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH THE FINER DETAILS SUCH AS FRONTAL
POSITIONS. THUS HAVE FOLLOWED THESE TWO DATASETS FOR THE BULK OF
THIS FORECAST.
FRIDAY NIGHT...
LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS SETTLES IN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...SO EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS WELL INLAND
AND LIGHT N-NE WINDS ALONG THE SHORE. IT WILL BE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
CORE OF THE DRY/COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES OVER NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AND A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS BEFORE SUNRISE SAT IN THE U40S AND
L50S. NOT AS COOL IN THE URBAN CENTERS WITH LOWS 55-60. STRONG LATE
JUN SUN WILL QUICKLY WARM AIRMASS INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S...COOLER
ALONG THE COAST WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES. VERY COMFORTABLE WITH DEW
PTS REMAINING IN THE 50S. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER.
AS FOR SUNDAY MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST OF NEW ENGLAND
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL YIELD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE REGION SUPPORTING DRY WEATHER. STRONG JUN SUN CONTINUES TO
WARM AIRMASS WITH 850 TEMPS CLIMBING TO ABOUT +14C. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE MU80S...WARMEST TEMPS INTERIOR NORTHEAST
MA WITH COOLEST TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS HIGH PRES SLIPS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SUFFICIENT SSW PGRAD TO OFFSET
ANY SEABREEZES FROM PLYMOUTH MA NORTHWARD TO THE NH BORDER. THUS
COULD BE VERY WARM AT BEACHES ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST. STILL
COMFORTABLE WITH DEW PTS IN THE MU50S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS MAY HIT 90 AS GEFS 925
TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +22C. COOLER SOUTH COAST GIVEN SSW WINDS. IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S. SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY DRY WEATHER MON AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE
BEFORE THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ARRIVES SOMETIME MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD A RISK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG WITH A
TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS RI/SE MA...WITH MVFR CIGS/MAINLY VFR VSBYS FOR MOST OTHER
AREAS. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY HEAVIER LEFTOVER SHOWERS ACROSS
NE AND CENTRAL MA/S CENTRAL NH INTO N CENTRAL CT. MAY SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS PRECIP BEGINS
TO REFIRE.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY MAINLY ACROSS E
MA/RI/NE CT. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 18Z. LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF PRECIP WEAKENING OR
MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
ACROSS E MA/S RI THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT THEN SHOULD IMPROVE.
HOWEVER...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP WELL INLAND AS WELL AS EASTERN
INTERIOR MA AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LEFTOVER ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE.
FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR.
KBOS TAF...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY MAINLY FOR TIMING OF
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AND ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER INTO TONIGHT...THEN SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAINLY
VFR ON FRIDAY.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO SHIFT TO N-NW
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS/SCT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE WATERS...MAY SEE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE N WIND TO BRIEFLY
GUST TO 25 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY TONIGHT...THEN WILL BECOME N-NE AT 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS UP
TO 4 FT. MAY SEE 5 FOOT SWELLS WITH THE INCREASING NE FETCH ON THE
FAR OUTER WATERS E AND S OF NANTUCKET. HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFTS
FOR THIS. LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT N-NE WINDS IN PLACE WITH LOCAL
SEA BREEZES ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. NE SWELLS UP TO 5 FT
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON THE OUTER WATERS E AND S OF
CAPE COD.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FRI NIGHT THRU MON...GREAT BOATING WEATHER AS HIGH PRES CREST
OVER NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT DRY WEATHER/GOOD VSBY AND LIGHT WINDS.
HIGH SLIPS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON YIELDING AN INCREASING S-SW
WIND.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
445 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER SC AND ALONG THE NE FL COAST MOVING EWD WHILE WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. PWATS ARE STILL A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 1.8 INCHES BASED ON GPS MET AND BLENDED TOTAL
PWAT IMAGERY THOUGH SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MOVED INTO THE NRN ZONES
OVER THE PAST 6 HRS IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CAROLINAS. WEAK SFC RIDGE AROUND 1020 MB NOTED OVER S CENTRAL FL AND
A SW-NE WEAK TROUGH IS OVER ERN GA AND SC.
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY...A FAIRLY SIMILAR SET UP WITH SFC FEATURES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WITH PREVAILING WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...IF NOT A BIT MORE NW
DUE TO SFC HIGH IN THE NE GULF. THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE A
BIT MORE SUBDUED WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING INCREASING A BIT MORE OVER
THE AREA...WITH A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH SE GA LATER TONIGHT.
APPEARS MAIN MESOSCALE TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE A DOMINANT W
COAST SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL GET A FAIRLY EARLY START DUE TO THE
INCREASED WLY FLOW. ANTICIPATE INCREASED LLVL CONVERGENCE OVER THE
ERN ZONES THIS AFTN/EVENING DUE TO ATLC WEAK SEA BREEZE PINNED NEAR
THE COAST. BASED ON HI RES MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE WILL ADVERTISE
POPS NEAR 30-40% FOR TODAY...CLOSE TO JUNE AVERAGES. DEEPEST
CONVECTIVE CELLS PROBABLY NOT OCCURRING UNTIL AFTER 3-4 PM AS
AIRMASS WILL BE MOST UNSTABLE BY THAT TIME WITH SBCAPE ESTIMATED TO
BE AROUND 2500-3200 J/KG AND VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
(CIN). SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...POSSIBLY NOT ENDING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. ENHANCED
CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE NEAR AND SE OF A LINE FROM
GNV TO JAX...GIVEN THE WNW FLOW PATTERN. HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S...WITH HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT CLOSE TO 105 IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
FRI-SAT NIGHT...STAGNANT AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED...AS
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION AND SEASONABLY HOT
TEMPERATURES ALL THE WAY TO THE BEACHES. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR (PWAT) VALUES WILL ADVECT INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO WIDELY SCATTERED WHERE A
POTENTIAL GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE COLLISION OCCURS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG THE ST. JOHNS
BASIN/INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THIS DRIER AND MORE
SUBSIDENT AIR MASS THAT WILL RESIDE OVER OUR REGION. DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL SHIFT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE MID-EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S INLAND AND LOWER 90S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. DRY AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS IN CHECK...WITH MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES OF 100-105 EXPECTED FRI/SAT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
70S INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...DEPICTING RIDGING ALOFT
RETROGRADING SLOWLY WESTWARD...WHICH ALLOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT
WILL BE TRAVERSING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON FRI TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY LATE SAT. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED
ON SUN NEAR THE GULF STREAM OFF THE SC/GA COAST...WITH THIS FEATURE
THEN POTENTIALLY STEERED SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
RIDGING ALOFT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS
ASSIGNING A 20 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
POTENTIAL SYSTEM OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
SEABOARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON SUN...AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY MON AND TUES AS
LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY IMPACTS OUR REGION FROM THE EAST.
TRICKY FORECAST LOCALLY FOR SUN AS DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE POSSIBLY
INCREASES FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WILL WAIT FOR
MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE RAMPING POPS UP SIGNIFICANTLY ON SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 90S INLAND...AND NEAR
90 AT THE COAST. SIDED WITH WETTER AND COOLER 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF
GUIDANCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT KEPT MAINLY DIURNAL SCATTERED
COVERAGE FOR NOW...AWAITING RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. DECIDED TO
LOWER HIGH TEMPS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH 00Z ECMWF
GUIDANCE...GENERALLY UPPER 80S. LONG-TERM GUIDANCE INSISTS THAT
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE FL PENINSULA TOWARDS
MID-WEEK...BUT THE LINGERING SURFACE LOW DEPICTED BY 00Z ECMWF
COMPLICATES THE LONG-TERM FORECAST FOR LATER NEXT WEEK. AT LEAST
SCATTERED DIURNAL POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE HIGHS (UPPER 80S/NEAR 90) MAINTAINED DUE TO INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY IN OUR LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN. A MORE TROPICAL AIR MASS
SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S AT THE
COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT VQQ THROUGH 12Z
THIS MORNING. VFR EXPECTED TODAY AND TSTMS CHANCES AROUND THE 30-40%
RANGE THIS AFTN...WILL MAINTAIN JUST VICINITY WORDING. WNW FLOW NEAR
10 KT OR LESS WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE W AND SW LATER IN THE DAY AND
ONLY BRIEF SLY WINDS POSSIBLE AT CRG AND SSI 18Z-00Z AS THE ATLC SEA
BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH INLAND DUE TO THE PREVAILING WLY FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...A GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
COASTAL WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY AS SFC RIDGE REMAINS S OF THE
AREA. A COMPLICATING FACTOR LATER IN THE MARINE FORECAST AROUND SUN
TO MON TIME FRAME IS A TROUGH/SFC LOW THAT MODELS DEPICT ABOUT
150-200 MILES E OF ST AUGUSTINE. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY
STRONGER N TO NE FLOW OVER THE AREA SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT THERE IS MODERATE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS
FCST ATTM. NO HEADLINES REQUIRED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RIP CURRENTS...A LOW RISK CONTINUES WITH SURF LESS THAN 2 FT WITH A
WEAK ELY SWELL NEAR 1 FT. SLIGHTLY BUMP UP IN ESE SWELL POSSIBLE
BY FRI BUT IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CHANGE TO MODERATE RISK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 94 71 93 70 / 30 30 20 20
SSI 90 76 90 76 / 30 30 20 20
JAX 94 73 94 73 / 40 30 30 30
SGJ 92 75 91 75 / 40 40 30 30
GNV 93 72 94 71 / 40 40 20 20
OCF 93 72 94 71 / 40 40 20 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/NELSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
359 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Confidence is lower than normal for the first 12-18 hours of the
forecast. Once again in the early morning hours (as was the case
yesterday morning), a broken line of thunderstorms was advancing
east along the northern Gulf coast and approaching our area. None of
the models are representing this well; with the initial conditions
already considerably different than the models, there are questions
as to how convective development will evolve through the day. With
showers and storms already approaching, PoPs were bumped up in the
09-15Z timeframe, particularly in our Florida zones and west of the
Apalachicola River (up to 40-50%). These thunderstorms may diminish
over the next several hours as they move east, similar to yesterday.
The MCS maintenance parameter is only around 10% over our area,
there is limited wind shear, and instability is lower to the east
per RAP analysis. Given the very early arrival of storms, there
should be enough time during the morning and early afternoon for
cloud debris and any lingering showers and storms to clear. Thus, we
did not deviate much from model consensus high temperatures which
are in the low-mid 90s. There should also be sufficient time for
convection to redevelop in the afternoon hours, and PoPs in that
timeframe were kept close to climatological normals (40%).
.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Afternoon convection will be on the decrease through the short
term as a fairly large ridge over the GoM intensifies and persists
in the northern GoM through Sunday. Because we won`t be directly
under the ridge, isolated thunderstorms can not be ruled out, but
warm temperatures will be abundant. Expecting PoP coverage both
days near 15-20%. As is the case in the summer, any lack of
precipitation will tend to yield higher afternoon temps, and this
is what is forecasted through Saturday. Most areas except for
extreme northwestern parts of the forecast area (Dothan) will be
in the middle 90s, with upper 90s attainable in warmer spots and
rain/cloud-free regions on Friday and Saturday. Apparent
temperatures are not expected to reach heat advisory criteria
through the short-term but it is worth watching, especially if
some locations fail to mix well into lower dewpoints.
.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
Until some possible upper level trofing moves in from the SE by very
late in the period (next Wed. or Thu.), a very prolonged stretch of
upper level ridging should be in command of the SE U.S. With the aid
of weak surface high pressure as well, this pattern should result in
an extended period of hot and humid weather for the region, with
just isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. High temperatures will likely range from the lower
90s along the coast to the mid to upper 90s well inland.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Friday] VFR conditions should prevail through much of
the period. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible, particularly
in the afternoon hours, with IFR VIS possible with the storms.
Some MVFR/IFR CIGS will be possible early this morning at ECP, but
may be somewhat intermittent. Increasing high clouds at the moment
should limit fog potential at all of the terminals, although some
brief fog can`t be ruled out between 09Z and 13Z.
&&
.Marine...
A fairly typical summertime pattern will result in light winds and
low seas outside of convection throughout the next several days.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected, although slightly hotter and
drier conditions are forecast this weekend into early next week.
&&
.Hydrology...
No significant widespread precipitation is expected across the
hydrological service area during the next several days. Therefore,
all area rivers and streams are expected to remain at low flows for
the near future.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 94 71 95 71 96 / 40 20 20 10 20
Panama City 89 75 89 75 89 / 40 20 20 20 20
Dothan 92 71 94 72 97 / 50 20 30 20 20
Albany 94 72 94 72 96 / 40 20 20 20 20
Valdosta 96 70 96 70 96 / 40 20 20 20 20
Cross City 93 73 94 70 96 / 30 20 20 20 20
Apalachicola 90 75 89 73 89 / 30 10 10 20 20
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...GOULD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
202 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED. TODAY SHOULD UNFOLD SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...WITH SEA BREEZES ON BOTH COASTS BY AFTERNOON. COULD
ONCE AGAIN WITNESS A NE TO SW MOVEMENT OF LATE DAY STORMS. FOR NOW
WILL ONLY PLACE VCTS LATE DAY IN THE KAPF TAF. MORE VCTS MAY BE
ADDED TO ADDITIONAL SITES LATER TODAY DEPENDING ON STORM
EVOLUTION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014/
UPDATE...
REMNANTS OF THIS EVENINGS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS MOVED TO THE WEST AND WILL BE EXITING THE NAPLES AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THE HRRR HAS BEEN FAIRLY CLOSE, BUT FAILED
TO CAPTURE THE WESTERN CONVECTIVE AREA IN THE 20Z RUN. BUT IT DOES
SHOW THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF AND HAS THEM ALL BUT GONE
BY 2Z. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT WEATHER AND
TO ALLOW FOR MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WITH THE REMAINING CELLS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE IN SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARD THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE INTERIOR.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SLIGHTLY WEAKER H7 INHIBITION HAS ALLOWED FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP EARLY THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE HAS
MOVED WEST OF METROPOLITAN AREAS...SO WITH MEAN STORM MOTION SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST...MOST LIKELY EASTERN URBAN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
OVER THE INTERIOR...MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT WILL AIDE IN COOLING
OF DOWNDRAFTS AND SUPPORT QUITE GUSTY WINDS IN ANY OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS RESIDED OVER THE REGION THE LAST
FEW DAYS WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IT
DOES...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN DOWN THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. THIS MAY PROVIDE FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING /SEA BREEZE INDUCED/
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE FOCUS WILL REMAIN
OVER INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
AVIATION...
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WELL ESTABLISHED AS OF 18Z AND
MAKING STEADY PROGRESS INLAND. WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IS STILL PINNED
CLOSE TO THE COAST BUT SHOULD ALSO MAKE SOME INLAND PROGRESS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CONVERGENCE OF SEA BREEZES AND BACKGROUND
N-NE FLOW WILL MAXIMIZE TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING OVER THE INTERIOR TO WESTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. THUS
WILL CARRY VCTS AT KAPF WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TERMINAL BEING
DIRECTLY AFFECTED AFTER 20Z. EAST COAST TERMINALS LOOK TO BE CLEAR
OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION TODAY, THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED VCTS FROM
THESE LOCATIONS. ONLY IMPACT OF CONVECTION ON EAST COAST SITES IS
MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS PERHAPS PRODUCING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT LAND BREEZE OVERNIGHT WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS AGAIN ON THURSDAY. /MOLLEDA
MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WITH FAIRLY CALM SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 75 90 75 / 40 20 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 78 90 78 / 30 10 30 20
MIAMI 91 78 90 78 / 30 10 30 20
NAPLES 91 76 90 76 / 40 20 40 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
401 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
246 AM CDT
WE BEGIN TODAY AS WE STARTED THE PAST EIGHT WITH FOG ONCE AGAIN
IN THE CHICAGO METRO. THAT FOG AND EVEN MORE SO STRATUS THIS MORNING
AND INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES ARE INITIAL CHALLENGES TO THE
FORECAST. THAT IS FOLLOWED BY OF COURSE OUR DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. STORM CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE AT SOME POINT EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND WEIGHING THAT WITH TEMPERATURES WAS A FOCUS OF THIS MORNING
AS WELL.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE GOES 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL THIS MORNING REVEALS WIDESPREAD
STRATUS WHICH HAD SPREAD FROM THE LAKE WELL INLAND LATE LAST
EVENING. THIS WAS ALSO DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE BUT HAD LIFTED TO
MORE OF A STRATUS DECK INLAND. ANY VISIBILITY UNDER ONE MILE IS
SOMEWHAT PATCHY OUTSIDE OF ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE AS OF 230
AM. BECAUSE OF THAT DO NOT SEE THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY THIS MORNING
BUT MAY HIGHLIGHT WITH AN SPS DEPENDING ON VISIBILITY TRENDS. LATEST
AMDAR DATA INDICATES THE STRATUS IS 1000-1500 FT THICK AND NOT
WITHIN THAT STEEP OF AN INVERSION. SO ENVISION MUCH OF THIS OUTSIDE
OF FAR NORTHEAST IL BURNING OFF QUICKLY AND HAVING LIMITED HAMPERING
OF TEMPERATURES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A 1019MB
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED DOWN LAKE MI. THIS HAS LED TO DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND LIKELY HELPED THE FOG FROM BEING AS DENSE THIS
MORNING. YESTERDAY SAW A 20F+ TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM DOWNTOWN
CHICAGO TO FAR OUTLYING AREAS. THIS SHOULD BE FAR LESS TODAY GIVEN
LESS FOG DOWNTOWN AND LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT DRIVING NORTHEAST
WIND SPEEDS.
A SHORT WAVE IN SOUTHWEST IA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL RIDE EAST
INTO NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOMEWHAT DAMPEN AT THE SAME
TIME. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 LOOK TO BE REACHED IN
NORTH CENTRAL IL AWAY FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCE. LESS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND A WEAKER WAVE ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY SHOULD PROVIDE
LESS COVERAGE AS WELL AS LESS GUSTO TO ANY STORMS. THIS IS SUPPORTED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FORECAST ONLY AT 15-20 KT. WE CONTINUE THE
20-40 POPS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF ILLINOIS HIGHWAY 47. SOME
LINGERING WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD FESTER HERE AND THERE
TONIGHT AS HAS BEEN SEEN IN THIS PATTERN. ANY FOG TONIGHT ALONG THE
SHORE AREAS SHOULD BE EVEN LESS DENSE OR MAYBE NON-EXISTENT
ALTOGETHER GIVEN LESS OF A NORTHERLY FETCH DOWN THE SOURCE REGION OF
THE LAKE AND OVERALL SYNOPTIC DRYING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A STRONG WESTERLY JET SEEN THIS MORNING OVER THE PACIFIC WILL INVADE
THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL DEEPEN AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH MODEST AMPLIFICATION OF
THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. IN RESPONSE. THE
FORCING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THIS TIME OVER THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS
NEBULOUS AND TIED TO SUBTLE MID-LEVEL FEATURES AND BROAD WARM
WARM/MOIST ASCENT. WITHIN THE OVERALL BUILDING HEIGHTS A WEAK
DISORGANIZED UPPER LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT
NORTH-NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WE MAY BE GRAZED BY
ITS WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT. OVERALL THIS PERIOD HAS LOOKED LESS
FAVORABLE OVER TIME FOR PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
SIGNAL IS WEAKER. FORECAST HIGHS ARE MID 80S ON BOTH DAYS ALTHOUGH
LAKE COOLING FOR COOK AND LAKE COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS WILL OCCUR ON
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND THE END OF THE 26.00 NAM AND 26.03 SREF RUNS
ARE COMING INTO SOME AGREEMENT WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE AND MORE
FOCUSED MOISTURE ADVECTION ON SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION COULD END UP BEING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BUT HAVE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THESE PERIODS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY COULD BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THIS AS GFS/EC 850MB TEMPS OF
18C-21C ARE SUPPORTIVE OF 90+ AREAWIDE. HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVELY AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DID AND KEPT HIGHS MORE MID
80S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR REACHING THAT 90
MARK AND LIKELY TO A BE A HUMID DAY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS A
FETCH OF LOWER-MID 70S DEW POINTS SHOULD EXTEND UP THE PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE MODESTLY
UNSTABLE UNDER LOWERING HEIGHTS AS THE CANADIAN TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD. MONDAY NIGHT IS THE CURRENT PERIOD FOR FROPA ON A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT
PERIOD...BUT NOTHING OVERBOARD AS THE TIMING WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE
FURTHER REFINED. WITH THE MOISTURE AND JUST SYNOPTIC SETUP...THERE
LOOKS AS IF THERE COULD BE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD INCLUDE OUR
AREA.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* IFR TO LIFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF LOW VSBY IN FOG ALSO POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT.
* NELY-ELY WINDS LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND THEN RESUME A WEAK NELY
FLOW BY MID MORNING. A LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE WIND FIELD WILL SET
UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...NOT REALLY A CLASSIC LAKE BREEZE...BUT
WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE ELY AND INCREASE A BIT...BUT GENERALLY
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 10KT. WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN TO
LGT/VRBL THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOW CIGS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH CIGS ALREADY
DROPPING TO IFR AND ANTICIPATE THAT ALL TAF SITES WILL DROP TO
002-003 DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS VIS WILL DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR...EXCEPT
GYY WITH IS ALREADY AT 2SM. NOT THAT CONFIDENT IN WIDESPREAD IFR
VIS TONIGHT...BUT WILL GO WITH A TEMPO 2SM DURG THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
IN DEFERENCE TO THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14-15Z AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THAT THE TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY AS LAKE-
STABILIZED AIR WILL COVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS SNEAKING INTO THE RFD AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO THE
AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MORE MODIFIED AND LESS LAKE STABILIZED
FARTHER AWAY FORM LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST FOR RFD
FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE BUT WILL CONSIDER AT LEAST A VCSH OR VCTS
WITH THE NEXT UPDATES.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS TRENDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND MVFR OR LOWER CIGS.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
300 AM CDT
BROAD LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO FLORIDA WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM QUEBEC THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS HAS SET UP GENENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER
LAND AND A GENERALLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...WINDS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE SETTING UP ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON LAND. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY NIGHT
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE AND WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SETTING UP MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LAKE...WHICH COULD REACH
15 TO 25 KT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WILL
TAKE AN ODD TURN TO THE NORTH...INTO SASKATCHEWAN BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AS THE LOW THEN TAKES A TURN TO
THE EAST...TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 10 AM
THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
346 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 306 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
Hot, humid summertime with a weak boundary and several small waves
to help trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms periodically through
the forecast. Bringing in finesse to the forecast with the shaky
performance of the operational models is difficult at best. GFS is
already off with widespread convection over the FA, and the NAM is
doing somewhat better with a delay on the approaching wave until
later today. Increasing pops today going into the afternoon,
particularly along the boundary as it drifts very slowly with the
warming of the day, providing a weak focus for some storms.
Forecast very much a blend of different models and different runs,
with deference to a chaotic solution set in an unstable summer
airmass. Results...a lot of small pops. Best chances for precip
actually land with the next larger system that will have more of
an affect this weekend and the first half of next week. Same wave
just coming onshore this morning on the west coast and expect a
little bit more confidence to build as the system becomes better
sampled in the next couple runs.
SHORT TERM...Today and tonight...
Dense fog creeping into the NE portions of the CWA from NRN IL
as temps drop under the mostly clear skies in an area of rich llvl
moisture from yesterdays rain. Increasing chances for rain as the
next wave/and remains of overnight weakening MCS from the Plains
makes its way eastward into the Midwest. ECMWF more dominated by
subsidence and drier. Keeping the pops low and more coverage
wording today and tonight as a result. Precip lingering a bit into
the overnight in models and with continued southerly flow and that
stagnant boundary...keeping the pops for the overnight.
Temperatures similar with the recent trends.
LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...
Right now, chance PoPs remain in the forecast Friday through the
weekend, though there is doubt for Friday/Friday night and
depending on the timing and amplification of the synoptic pattern
and strength of some weak ridging at the sfc. Sunday, models are
hinting at the next major storm system spinning up as that trof
amplifies over the western half of the CONUS and goes to a
slightly negative tilt over the nrn Plains/Upper Midwest for the
end of the weekend. Models continuing to deepen the sfc low well
to the north in srn Canada. At this point, the bulk of that system
looks to be north of ILX, though cold frontal features pass
through ILX spawning storms along the way. Will probably see
continued stormy impacts for Monday/Monday night, though the
timing is changing by 12 hrs back and forth with subsequent
synoptic runs...particularly across the northern half of the
state.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014
Low clouds (ceilings below 1k ft) and fog off Lake Michigan have
spread sw to Pontiac and Watseka and latest HRRR model now shows
low clouds and fog reaching BMI and CMI after 08Z or 09Z. So
lowered vsbys and ceilings at ne taf sites to account for this
possibility. Jacksonville about 30 miles west of SPI already has
1.75 mile in fog with 700 foot ceiling so even SPI and DEC could
see fog develop overnight. Have MVFR vsbys for now but possible
for vsbys getting to 2 miles or less similar to what has occurred
at Jacksonville. SPI and CMI currently have only 3F temp/td spread
while DEC is 6F spread and PIA and BMI have 8F temp/td spread. Any
fog that develops should lift by 14Z/9 am with scattered to broken
cumulus clouds 3.5-5k ft. Weak short wave arriving from the west
Thu along with increased moisture. So added VCTS late Thu
afternoon after 21Z and into mid Thu evening starting soonest at
PIA and later at DEC and CMI. Models have not been handling
convection the best lately so confidence of timing and coverage of
convection is low, hence kept VC working instead of tempo groups.
Light ene to calm winds overnight with frontal boundary over
central IL and then winds turn SE 4-7 kts after 14Z Thu and be
light Thu eve.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1251 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
839 PM CDT
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ONCE THE MID-LVL VORTICITY MAXIMA PUSHED
EAST THE INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY DIMINISHED.
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN ALSO STRUGGLED TO PUSH EAST AS THEY WERE
ENCOUNTERING A COOLER MARINE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH HELPED TO KEEP
ALL ACTIVITY GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A HARVARD TO LANSING
LINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO COOL INTO THE LOW 60S TO UPR
50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE...WHILE INLAND AREAS REMAIN MILD
IN THE LOW/MID 70S. SOME MARINE FOG HAS BEEN ABLE TO BLEED INLAND
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WITH A BUMP IN THE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN THE FOG QUICKLY LIFTED BRIEFLY INTO A LOW
STRATUS DECK. ALTHOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE ONLY TEMPORARY...AS ONCE
WINDS DIMINISH BACK DOWN OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG TO DENSE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP.
BEACHLER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
336 PM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES ARE WITH CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WELL AS WARMING TREND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM ARE WITH THE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTING SEVERAL STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AT THIS TIME...WITH SMALL HAIL
AND WINDS TO 50 MPH THE THREATS AT THIS TIME. AS WAS ALSO
ANTICIPATED...HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES
TO BE A THREAT WITH ONE OF THE STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING SLIGHTLY
OVER AN INCH AS IT MOVED OVER THE OFFICE HERE IN ROMEOVILLE.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED ALONG BEST
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT FROM ROCKFORD SOUTHEAST TO KANKAKEE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WHERE INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES. AS
LARGE VORT MAX WELL TO THE NORTH CONTINUES EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO EXIT. BEST
LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE LOST WITH THE COVERAGE OF STORMS LIKELY
DECREASING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DO CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED FROM THIS AFTERNOONS
CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS A SOURCE OF LOW HORIZONTAL LEVEL SHEAR. THIS
LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD
PROVIDE A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH ISOLATED FUNNEL
CLOUDS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE STORMS
DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY EVENING...SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
FOG ALONG THE SHORE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT THIS FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO SPILL
BACK INLAND LATE THIS EVENING MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN DURING THIS TIME...BUT WITH THIS FOG/STRATUS LIKELY
MOVING FURTHER INLAND AND AFFECTING A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL MAKE MENTION OF FOG IN
THE GRIDS/ZONES AND HWO...AN MONITOR THIS INLAND PUSH THIS EVENING
FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AGAIN TONIGHT.
AFTER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENINGS DEVELOPMENT DIMINISHES...DONT
EXPECT ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. DO EXPECT THURSDAY MORNING TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS WELL
AS ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY WELL WEST OF THE CWA
DURING THIS TIME. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME
WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY TO DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CWA. THIS
POTENTIAL ENERGY COINCIDING WITH A LINGERING BOUNDARY STRETCHED
ACROSS THE REGION COULD PROVIDE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BEST FOCUS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA BUT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT TO DRIFT EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE CWA...DID MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. DO EXPECT
THURSDAY NIGHT BE ON THE DRIER SIDE WHILE THE STRONGER FLOW/ENERGY
REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR WAA PRECIP
TO SWING EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...DID LEAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION IN THE GRIDS. RISING HEIGHTS AND PERSISTENT WAA
WILL BE THE TREND INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE ENERGY THE NORTHWEST
SLOWLY APPROACHES. A VERY MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FOCI FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN...HAVE
WARRANTED CHANCE POP MENTION INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* IFR TO LIFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF LOW VSBY IN FOG ALSO POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT.
* NELY-ELY WINDS LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND THEN RESUME A WEAK NELY
FLOW BY MID MORNING. A LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE WIND FIELD WILL SET
UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...NOT REALLY A CLASSIC LAKE BREEZE...BUT
WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE ELY AND INCREASE A BIT...BUT GENERALLY
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 10KT. WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN TO
LGT/VRBL THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOW CIGS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH CIGS ALREADY
DROPPING TO IFR AND ANTICIPATE THAT ALL TAF SITES WILL DROP TO
002-003 DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS VIS WILL DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR...EXCEPT
GYY WITH IS ALREADY AT 2SM. NOT THAT CONFIDENT IN WIDESPREAD IFR
VIS TONIGHT...BUT WILL GO WITH A TEMPO 2SM DURG THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
IN DEFERENCE TO THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14-15Z AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THAT THE TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY AS LAKE-
STABILIZED AIR WILL COVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS SNEAKING INTO THE RFD AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO THE
AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MORE MODIFIED AND LESS LAKE STABILIZED
FARTHER AWAY FORM LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST FOR RFD
FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE BUT WILL CONSIDER AT LEAST A VCSH OR VCTS
WITH THE NEXT UPDATES.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS TRENDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND MVFR OR LOWER CIGS.
JEE
&&
.MARINE...
239 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NOVA
SCOTIA SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC CONSOLIDATES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. DRIER AIR IS STARTING TO FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WHICH SHOULD HELP REDUCE THE COVERAGE
OF FOG ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE INTO THE EVENING. DENSE
FOG WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE
LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND LIKELY BECOME VARIABLE ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SPREADING DOWN THE LAKE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST INTO FRIDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT GOING INTO FRIDAY AND FAVOR A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BUT THE FLOW MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT THEY
BECOME ONSHORE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BUT THE STRONG WARM
ADVECTION WILL KEEP SHARP INVERSION IN PLACE SO SPEED INCREASE MAY
BE LIMITED. THE LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTENSIFY SUNDAY KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LAKE AND TURN WINDS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE STABLE LAYER WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS BUT OFFSHORE FLOW ON THE WEST AND SOUTH
SHORES WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONGER BREEZE STRETCHING A FEW MILES FROM
SHORE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A COOL FRONT
ACROSS THE LAKE TURNING WINDS WESTERLY.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 10 AM
THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1146 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 845 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014
Like last evening, will update the forecast around 10 pm with
isolated showers and thunderstorms still occurring along and ne
of I-74 through 10 pm. This diurnally driven convection closer to
weak frontal boundary drifting slowy sw toward I-74 at mid evening
should dissipate about 1-2 hours after sunset. Plus short wave
over Great Lakes region is moving away from NE IL this evening.
Added patchy fog late tonight and early Thu morning to northeast
counties with light winds. Crossover temperatures should be within
reach between 3-7 am especially over ne counties and HRRR shows
fog developing ne of I-74 later tonight with the dense fog over ne
IL and nw IN. Like last night though, cirrus clouds spreading ne
across areas se of IL river may limit fog formation. Lows in the
low to mid 60s looks on track, though nudged lows up a tad over sw
counties where dewpoints are currently around 70F.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014
Low clouds (ceilings below 1k ft) and fog off Lake Michigan have
spread sw to Pontiac and Watseka and latest HRRR model now shows
low clouds and fog reaching BMI and CMI after 08Z or 09Z. So
lowered vsbys and ceilings at ne taf sites to account for this
possibility. Jacksonville about 30 miles west of SPI already has
1.75 mile in fog with 700 foot ceiling so even SPI and DEC could
see fog develop overnight. Have MVFR vsbys for now but possible
for vsbys getting to 2 miles or less similar to what has occurred
at Jacksonville. SPI and CMI currently have only 3F temp/td spread
while DEC is 6F spread and PIA and BMI have 8F temp/td spread. Any
fog that develops should lift by 14Z/9 am with scattered to broken
cumulus clouds 3.5-5k ft. Weak short wave arriving from the west
Thu along with increased moisture. So added VCTS late Thu
afternoon after 21Z and into mid Thu evening starting soonest at
PIA and later at DEC and CMI. Models have not been handling
convection the best lately so confidence of timing and coverage of
convection is low, hence kept VC working instead of tempo groups.
Light ene to calm winds overnight with frontal boundary over
central IL and then winds turn SE 4-7 kts after 14Z Thu and be
light Thu eve.
07
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014
Main forecast problem today is the summertime convective pattern
and daily pops.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night.
Morning upper air and surface data shows a weak upper system
moving east today through the Great Lakes, with minor low center
and surface convergence boundary from WI to northern IL. Result is
scattered storms mainly over northern IL in the evening that will
dissipate by in the evening.
For Thursday into Friday, the moist, unstable airmass moves back
north into region, with dew points increasing. The result is the
chance of scattered storms over the region, but with no defined
boundaries and light upper winds, pcpn will be scattered.
LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday.
Upper flow changes a little from the weak zonal with a minor ridge
over MS valley to an minor upper level wave moving from the
rockies into the upper plains. This pattern drives a series of
cold fronts inot the Great Lakes, trailing south into the IL
region. As a result, another chance of pops over the weekend and
into the first of next week. However models are different on the
strength of the front and upper forcing remains in the Great
Lakes. With those factors, kept pops in chance category at this
time, with further refinement possible later when the exact
feature timing is better seen.
GOETSCH
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
333 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO SOUTHWEST CWA AT 07Z AND EXTENDS
ROUGHLY FROM JUST NORTH OF A RAPID CITY SD TO DES MOINES IA... TO
INDIANAPOLIS IN. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS AM SHOWS
CONVECTION FOCUSED MOSTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
WHERE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE AXIS ARE ALIGNED.
WEAK PERTURBATION MOVING EAST FROM NE AND ATTENDANT WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION AIDING WING OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM
PORTIONS OF SW-CNTRL-NE IA. LAKE ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW POST
FRONTAL AIDING LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LEADING EDGE
ROUGHLY ON A LINE FROM MINERAL POINT WI TO STERLING/ROCK FALLS
IL... TO PRINCETON IL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO NOT MOVE MUCH NEXT 24 HOURS AND REMAIN
IN VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST CWA. WEAK PERTURBATION(S) AND ATTENDANT
SUBTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION IN COMBINATION WITH FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TDY... ALBEIT
STILL LARGELY UNORGANIZED AND GENERALLY SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH SOME
SUGGESTION THAT BEST COVERAGE MAY BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. SOME
DIMINISHING OF PCPN ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNSET BUT MAY SEE REDEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED ACTIVITY LATE EVE/OVRNGT WITH SECONDARY BRANCH OF LOW LEVEL
JET AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MO
RVR VLY.
STRATUS LOOKS TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MAKING INROADS INTO EASTERN CWA
EARLY THIS AM... BUT SUNRISE WILL BRING MOVEMENT TO HALT AND HRRR AND
RAP SUGGEST FINAL RESTING SPOT FOR STRATUS WILL BE ROUGHLY NEAR LINE
FROM KDBQ TO EAST OF KMLI. STRATUS SHOULD LIFT INTO EXTENSIVE CU
FIELD AND WILL AID IN LIMITING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80F NORTHEAST CWA. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY PTSUNNY OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 60S SW CWA WITH
PTCLDY SKIES OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
INCREASE IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING AS MODELS BEGIN TO
CONGEAL ON THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION.
SPECIFICALLY...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM AREA ALL REMARKABLY IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWFA MONDAY. THUS
SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE AND WILL STICK WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND WITH
MORE CONFIDENCE THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
FRIDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A WIDE OPEN GULF
SUPPORT WARM...BREEZY...AND HUMID. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS SURFACE DEW POINTS APPROACH 70 DEGREES
AND A WEAK WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GFS IS
SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...LOOKING OVERDONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS
WAVE. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS DO SHOW SOME REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE
...AND WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMING DO THINK THERE WILL
BE SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LACK
OF STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE FOR FRIDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH MORE UPPER SUPPORT AS THE
WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY.
BY SUNDAY WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A FEW ROUNDS OF MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS IA. TIMING
OF THE FROPA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WOULD LEND ITSELF TO INCREASED
RISK OF SEVERE WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND THIS BEARS WATCH.
QUIETER FOR MID WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO SETTLE IN.
DMD
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN IA.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE. A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY MOVING WEST FROM LAKE MI MAY
REACH THE MS RIVER AND THE DBQ AND MLI TERMINALS AROUND OR WITHIN
OR A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG AND
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL REACH DBQ AND A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IS BROUGHT IN AT 12Z WITH POTENTIAL IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE OF THIS
BOUNDARY HAVING AN IMPACT IS TOO LOW TO GO BEYOND A PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN THE MORNING. THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH MAY
TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH ARE
MENTIONED IN PROB30 GROUPS COVERING THE MORE FAVORABLE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...DMD
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
412 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
Enhanced PoP values were included across the highway 283 corridor
and eastward very early this morning as strong cape and weak shear
pulse type thunderstorms may continue to be forced along gusty
outflow winds from north central Kansas into central Kansas. The low
level jet was very weak judging by local RAP soundings. With this in
mind the PoPs will continue to be lowered in the far western
sections of the forecast area in the nowcast timeframe.
Later today and tonight brings yet a better overall chance for a few
severe storms with hail and damaging wind the primary threat through
the evening hours. By Friday a synoptic scale wave from the west
crosses the Rockies onto the High Plains region in an equally or
more unstable airmass than previous days. Much of western Kansas
appears in the warm sector for this event, but a warm front appears
to be a focus for all severe weather modes farther north (mainly
north of Interstate 70). Surface based thunderstorms should develop
in vicinity of the surface low/dryline with a few supercells
starting the beginning of a busy severe weather episode through the
evening on Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
Remnants of the upper wave may still be moving out of the area on
Saturday, with a conditionally unstable airmass still in place.
Regeneration of convection cold easily occur on outflow boundaries
anytime during the day, but most likely over central KS, as the
pattern supports north winds in the far west. At the same time, the
wave could move through faster, clearing the area of any significant
widespread severe threat. By late in the weekend, the upper pattern
will evolve such that the westerly jet will drift into the northern
tier of states with a closed attendant low developing over central
Canadian provinces. The westerly height gradient will support lee
troughing and moderate southerly winds over western Kansas Sunday
and Sunday night. Thunderstorms could be possible again buy Sunday
afternoon if the surface front modeled by the EC/GFS is able to move
through the areas earlier than forecast. However in absence of any
convective rain cooled air, temperatures will continue on the
warming trend through the weekend with only the relative greenness
form recent rains to keep temperatures from soaring to 100 or more
degrees by Sunday.
During the Monday through Wednesday time period, a strong upper
level low pressure system over southern Canada will move into the
eastern Canadian provinces while a high pressure ridge moves into
western North America. The GFS and ECMWF show a a dry cold frontal
passage across western Kansas during the day Monday. By Monday
evening the front stalls out over northern Oklahoma which looks
reasonable given the upper ridge over the northern and central
Rockies and northwesterly flow aloft into the northern and central
Plains. The models show precipitation developing Monday night as
southerly flow at 850 millibars increases across the southern into
the central Plains and isentropic lift develops over the frontal
boundary. This pattern should continue into the middle part of the
week and provide additional chances for MCS development off the
eastern slopes of the Rockies into western Kansas. Later in the
week, the models show the upper ridge building eastward into the
central part of North America which should bring drier conditions
along with warmer temperatures to western Kansas for the 4th of July
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
Radar observations will be monitored for the next couple of hours
for convective redevelopment, which would be a result of an
increasing low level jet. Currently, no convective allowing model is
handling the situation well as a storm slowly decays near Ulysses.
Forecasting thunder in any terminals is not likely at this
time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 90 67 92 71 / 10 20 10 30
GCK 92 67 93 70 / 10 20 20 30
EHA 92 66 94 68 / 20 10 10 20
LBL 93 68 96 71 / 10 10 10 20
HYS 90 68 91 73 / 20 20 20 60
P28 90 68 92 75 / 20 20 10 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard/Russell
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
223 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2014
AS OF 230 AM CDT...130 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 REMAINING IN THE LOW 70S. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. BASED ON WSR-88D RADAR DATA...THERE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
AREA...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE FED A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. A MESO-LOW WAS ALSO INDICATED...CENTERED BETWEEN MCCOOK
NEBRASKA AND OBERLIN KANSAS...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 20 MPH. A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OUR MAIN WEATHER
MAKER...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.
FOR TODAY...YET ANOTHER MESSY CONVECTIVE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. MORNING CONVECTION MAY STILL BE
ONGOING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEFORE ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
HEADS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION. A COOLER... STABLE AIRMASS IS
ANTICIPATED AS A RESULT OF THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. THEREFORE...
BELIEVE THAT OUR AREA SHOULD BE DEVOID OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. LATEST SIGNALS FROM THE HRRR MODEL...ONE
THAT HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...INDICATES THIS TREND SO HAVE WEIGHTED TODAYS FORECAST HEAVILY
TOWARDS THE HRRR. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY DOWN COMPARED
TO FORECAST GUIDANCE AND MAY NEED TO LOWER SOME MORE DEEPENING ON
REMAINING CLOUD COVER. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
A LEE TROUGH FORMS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AIRMASS
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVER EAST COLORADO AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. YET ANOTHER WEAKER...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
OVERALL...TRENDED POPS LOWER FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
BASED ON THE IDEA A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL PLAGUE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...UP TO 60 KTS POSSIBLE...DEVELOPS.
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.
FOR TOMORROW...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MUCH LARGER SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT...POSSIBLY AN OUTBREAK. THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA. A DRYLINE SHOULD SETUP...
INITIALLY ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER BEFORE SLIDING SLIGHTLY
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS WITH RECENT DRYLINE EVENTS...
BELIEVE THAT A FEW MODELS ARE PULLING THE DRYLINE TOO FAR EAST TOO
QUICKLY. INSTEAD...DRYLINE SHOULD BE HELD FURTHER WEST BY A LEE
TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OVER. HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLOWER NAM AND ECMWF WITH DRYLINE
POSITIONING. BY AFTERNOON...A CAP SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY SUPPRESSED
UNTIL 21Z...AROUND 3 PM MDT. AS THIS HAPPENS... INSTABILITY BUILDS
UP AND LEADS TO EXPLOSIVE STORM GROWTH. SBCAPE OF 3000+ J/KG AND
850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM...0-6KM BULK SHEAR UP TO 50 KTS
AND 0-3 KM HELICITY OF 100-250 M2/S2 INDICATE THAT ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE. SOME LARGE HAIL MAY BE SIGNIFICANT...
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF A BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE.
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...QUITE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN. A
COLD FRONT IS FORCED DOWN BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY IN ADDITION TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A FEW STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTON
AND GRAHAM COUNTIES DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2014
THE EXTENDED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND AN
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH FLOW BECOMING
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED. SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT AND WILL RESULT IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ON MONDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY ALONG WITH MONDAY AS NO
STRONG SIGNALS ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE REALLY COME TOGETHER FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
SETS UP OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS STILL NOT
VERY HIGH DUE TO TIMING OF DISTURBANCES AND GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND SURFACE FEATURES...SO WOULD EXPECT CHANGES
AS EACH DAY APPROACHES THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S AND WILL COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY PAST MCK AND GLD THIS EVENING...BUT
ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AS
OF TAF ISSUANCE TIME. DO NOT EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BE AS LONG
LIVED AS THE ONES THAT MOVED THROUGH PREVIOUSLY...SO HAVE INCLUDED
ONLY VICINITY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT GLD AND MCK THROUGH
08-09Z. AFTER 09Z...EXPECT SKIES TO BEGIN CLEARING AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION AFTER 16Z THURSDAY MORNING AS A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
THE VICINITY OF GLD AFTER 22Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...ALW
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
217 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2014
AS OF 230 AM CDT...130 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 REMAINING IN THE LOW 70S. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. BASED ON WSR-88D RADAR DATA...THERE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
AREA...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE FED A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. A MESO-LOW WAS ALSO INDICATED...CENTERED BETWEEN MCCOOK
NEBRASKA AND OBERLIN KANSAS...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 20 MPH. A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OUR MAIN WEATHER
MAKER...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.
FOR TODAY...YET ANOTHER MESSY CONVECTIVE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. MORNING CONVECTION MAY STILL BE
ONGOING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEFORE ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
HEADS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION. A COOLER... STABLE AIRMASS IS
ANTICIPATED AS A RESULT OF THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. THEREFORE...
BELIEVE THAT OUR AREA SHOULD BE DEVOID OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. LATEST SIGNALS FROM THE HRRR MODEL...ONE
THAT HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...INDICATES THIS TREND SO HAVE WEIGHTED TODAYS FORECAST HEAVILY
TOWARDS THE HRRR. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY DOWN COMPARED
TO FORECAST GUIDANCE AND MAY NEED TO LOWER SOME MORE DEEPENING ON
REMAINING CLOUD COVER. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
A LEE TROUGH FORMS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AIRMASS
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVER EAST COLORADO AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. YET ANOTHER WEAKER...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
OVERALL...TRENDED POPS LOWER FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
BASED ON THE IDEA A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL PLAGUE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...UP TO 60 KTS POSSIBLE...DEVELOPS.
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.
FOR TOMORROW...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MUCH LARGER SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT...POSSIBLY AN OUTBREAK. THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA. A DRYLINE SHOULD SETUP...
INITIALLY ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER BEFORE SLIDING SLIGHTLY
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS WITH RECENT DRYLINE EVENTS...
BELIEVE THAT A FEW MODELS ARE PULLING THE DRYLINE TOO FAR EAST TOO
QUICKLY. INSTEAD...DRYLINE SHOULD BE HELD FURTHER WEST BY A LEE
TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OVER. HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLOWER NAM AND ECMWF WITH DRYLINE
POSITIONING. BY AFTERNOON...A CAP SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY SUPPRESSED
UNTIL 21Z...AROUND 3 PM MDT. AS THIS HAPPENS... INSTABILITY BUILDS
UP AND LEADS TO EXPLOSIVE STORM GROWTH. SBCAPE OF 3000+ J/KG AND
850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM...0-6KM BULK SHEAR UP TO 50 KTS
AND 0-3 KM HELICITY OF 100-250 M2/S2 INDICATE THAT ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE. SOME LARGE HAIL MAY BE SIGNIFICANT...
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF A BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE.
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...QUITE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN. A
COLD FRONT IS FORCED DOWN BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY IN ADDITION TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A FEW STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTON
AND GRAHAM COUNTIES DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BEST
MOISTURE AND JET SUPPORT SUGGEST BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. ON FRIDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED JET DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE AREA. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT SO DO THE HIGHER POPS. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY SATURDAY BEHIND FRIDAY NIGHTS
SYSTEM.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW TO UPPER 60S EAST OF THE BORDER. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT MID
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA WITH LOW TO MID 60S
EAST. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE 80S. COULD SEE SOME 90S IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER FLOW WESTERLY TO START THE PERIOD WITH A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHWEST. SOME MINOR WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW
FAVORING SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AS WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD ABOVE NORMAL WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT MCK AND GLD.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED MOSTLY PAST MCK AND GLD THIS EVENING...BUT
ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AS
OF TAF ISSUANCE TIME. DO NOT EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BE AS LONG
LIVED AS THE ONES THAT MOVED THROUGH PREVIOUSLY...SO HAVE INCLUDED
ONLY VICINITY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT GLD AND MCK THROUGH
08-09Z. AFTER 09Z...EXPECT SKIES TO BEGIN CLEARING AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION AFTER 16Z THURSDAY MORNING AS A LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO
THE VICINITY OF GLD AFTER 22Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
117 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER SLOWLY CREEPING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE ALSO IS SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS.
HOWEVER...THE DEAD CALM WINDS AT A LOT OF LOCATIONS COUPLED WITH THE
CLOUD COVER IS HINDERING A LOT OF THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. QUITE A FEW OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A GOOD 3 TO 7 DEW
POINT DEPRESSION. AT THIS POINT...IT SEEMS THE FOG MENTION IN THE
HWO IS SUFFICIENT. OTHERWISE...UPLOADED LATEST OBS AND SENT THE GRIDS
TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVING COMPLETELY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WITH THE HRRR MODEL SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...DECIDED TO REMOVE PRECIPITATION FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOKING AT RADAR
IMAGERY UPSTREAM...THERE WERE ONLY A FEW ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA...AND THESE SHOULD DIE
OUT WELL BEFORE THEY COULD ARRIVE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO UPDATED PER THE REMOVAL OF RAIN FROM THE
FORECAST. CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD VALLEY
FOG...WHICH COULD BE DENSE AT TIMES NEAR BODIES OF WATER AT IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL...IN THE FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS IN RADAR
IMAGERY OF SHOWER AND STORM EVOLUTION ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. THE CURRENT FORECAST
WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH 2Z THIS EVENING BEFORE
EVERYTHING DISSIPATES. FOG IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA AFTER 5Z TONIGHT. THE FOG COULD BE DENSE AT TIMES NEAR BODIES OF
WATER...IN OUR DEEPER VALLEYS...AND AT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL TODAY. THE LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST PERIOD WAS REMOVED TO
MAKE THE FORECAST CURRENT AS WELL. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS
ALSO UPDATED TO REMOVE THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD AND ANY OTHER
OUTDATED WORDING LEFT OVER FROM THE DAY SHIFT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
SOME POP UP SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY GO AWAY AS THE
SUN GOES DOWN TODAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA. EXPECTING SOME FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THERE WILL
BE A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
CLEARING SKIES AND THE RADIATIVE COOLING. THERE MAY BE SOME DENSE
VALLEY FOG IN PLACES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FORECAST FOR
TOMORROW IS A BIT OF A STRUGGLE. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE
SHOWING SOME AN OMEGA SPIKE DURING THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW. SOME OF
THE NEIGHBORING OFFICES WERE NOT FORECASTING ANY
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER WITH THE FRONT BEING NEARBY AND WITH MORE THAN
ONE MODEL INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR RAIN...DECIDED TO KEEP THE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. WITH THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...THE DEWPOINTS WILL DROP OFF A LITTLE WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO LOWER THE LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. THE HIGHS SHOULD STAY FAIRLY SEASONABLE IN THE MID 80S.
WITH THE LOWER HUMIDITY...IT SHOULD FEEL A LITTLE MORE COMFORTABLE
TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
A WARM AND MUGGY SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHWARD
INTO THE APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL BE PROMINENT...THE
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL LEND ITSELF TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES BEING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (30-40 PERCENT) SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY FLIRTING WITH 90 EACH DAY FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE GETTING BEAT DOWN FROM THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY
AS A TROUGH DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD FORCE A
COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
APPEARS FAIRLY WEAK AND STRUNG OUT IN THE MODELING BY THE TIME IT
MAKES IT HERE SO WILL SIMPLY CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHETHER OR NOT THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
AND GIVE US ANY REPRIEVE FROM THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS BEYOND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS STAYED CLEAR OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS POINT DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF 1 TO 3 KNOT WINDS NEEDED FOR THE
MIXING TO GET FOG. ALSO DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE TAF SITES ARE
ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 6 DEGREES AT THIS POINT. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE PUT
IN MVFR TO IFR FOG LATER TONIGHT AT THE SITES IN ANTICIPATED OF
COOLING TEMPS AT LEAST A DEGREE OF TWO OFF FROM THE DEW POINT. MOST
FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z TO 14Z WITH JUST SOME LIGHT WINDS AND 5 KFT
CLOUD LAYER FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
MAY POP UP IN THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY BUT CHANCES ARE MINIMAL.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1148 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.AVIATION...NEXT SHORT WAVE OVER IN TEXAS IS PROGGED TO APPROACH
BPT AND LCH IN A FEW HOURS WITH IFR TSTMS. SOME IFR CIGS AROUND
AEX SHOULD LIFT TO VFR SOON. TIMING OF UPCOMING SHORT WAVE IS
SKETCHY BUT WILL GO FOR VCTS AFTER DAYBREAK. A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
SHORT WAVE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS SO WILL BRING PREDOMINANT -TSRA BUT
THERE ARE NO SIGNALS FOR LESS THAN VFR AS YET. USED THE SHORT
RANGE HRRR TO PROG MVFR TSTMS INTO LFT AND ARA AFTER DAYBREAK.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
00Z U/A ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA ATTM...AND DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THIS FEATURE HAS HELPED SHUT OFF THE PRECIP OVER MOST OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST/SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE PER 00Z KLCH SOUNDING...WHILE THE U/A ANALYSIS/WV IMAGERY
DEPICT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM CROSSING CNTL TX. COMBO OF THESE
SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS LATER
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN.
REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWS RAIN DEVELOPING OVER S-CNTL
TX...THEREFORE THE INHERITED HIGH POPS OVER GENERALLY THE SERN 2/3
OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS GOOD. ELSEWHERE JUST MADE MINOR TWEAKS
BASED ON LATEST OBS/TRENDS.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014/
AVIATION...UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES WITH PERIODS OF TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH A MOISTURE
RICH ENVIRONMENT SET UP BY A LONG THETCH OUT OF THE CARRIBBEAN.
NEXT IMPULSE AFFECTING LCH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED IFR IN TSTMS. ANOTHER IMPULSE LOOKS TO AFFECT BPT, LFT
AND ARA TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH IFR IN TSTMS WHILE LCH RECOVERS TO
VFR WITH LIGHT RAIN. AEX HAS AN IMPULSE PRODUCING IFR TSTMS WHICH
SHOULD BE IMPROVING TO VFR SHORTLY AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER DAYBREAK, ADDITIONAL IFR TSTMS AT AEX WITH
ANOTHER IMPULSE.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FOUND JUST OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
ITS ASSOCIATED WARM (OR CARIBBEAN) CONVEYOR BELT IS FOUND ON THE
OUTER WESTERN PERIPHERY OF DOME...THE PRINCIPAL AXIS EXTENDING FROM
VERACRUZ THROUGH BEAUMONT.
FURTHER UP...A DIFLUENT TROUGH...EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES...EXTENDS FROM OKLAHOMA THROUGH DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. SEVERAL WESTERLY IMPULSES (OR SHORTWAVES) CONTINUE
TO EMANATE OUT OF THE NEW MEXICO ROCKIES...PROPAGATING ACROSS
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.
DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY IMPULSES (OR SURGES) CONTINUE TO RIDE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED PRINCIPAL AXIS. ITS MESO-CONVECTIVE LIFT) IS
PHASING IN WITH PVA LIFT ATTENDING THE WESTERLY SHORTWAVES.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE RESULT...AT PRESENT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
IN GENERAL...THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AIR STREAM (ISENTROPIC LIFT)
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NAM
GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE ASSOCIATED INCLINED STABLE LAYER SLOPING
UPWARD...FROM THE SURFACE MARINE LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO...TO AROUND 800 MB ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACCENTS...TRIGGERED BY
THE PHASING IN OF THE TRAVELING SOUTHERLY AND WESTERLY IMPULSES.
THE CARIBBEAN FEED WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED.
21
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 73 87 76 87 76 / 70 80 60 60 60
KBPT 73 87 76 87 76 / 60 80 60 70 60
KAEX 71 86 73 87 73 / 60 80 60 60 60
KLFT 75 87 76 88 77 / 80 80 60 60 60
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
507 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS MID-UPR LVL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS TO GENERALLY STAY WEST OF
THE CWA TODAY. STRATOCU DECK AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS
KEPT MIN TEMPS A BIT WARMER (UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S) OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS OVER THE WEST HALF ARE A
BIT COOLER (LOWER 40S) UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH KENTON EVEN REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 30S.
TODAY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
FCST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRES
RIDGE ALONG WITH DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW STRATOCU DECK TO ERODE
OVER EAST HALF BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT WITH LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND
LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO GENERALLY REACH THE MID 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WITH COOLER 60S READINGS NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES SHORELINES.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST LATER TONIGHT
ALLOWING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES A BIT HIGHER THAN
THIS MORNING/S READINGS DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW OF THE
TYPICAL INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL COLD SPOTS COULD REACH INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE LOWER 50S
MIN TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR WEST NEAR IRONWOOD...WHERE
DOWNSLOPING SRLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATE SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THERE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
FRI...A TROUGH MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE PLAINS AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN SW MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TOWARD UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR MAY SLOW THE PROGRESS
OF ANY SHOWERS INTO THE AREA WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT
PATTERN. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO EDGE TOWARD THE WEST BY LATE
FRI FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. THE GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BUT IF A WEAK
SHRTWV MOVES INTO THE AREA SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THE KEWEENAW OR FAR WEST. HOWEVER...ONLY LOW END
CHANCE EXPECTED...PER MDLS CONSENSUS.
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AS THE WRN TROUGH EDGES FARTHER TO THE EAST AND
STRENGTHENING MOISTURE ADVECTION BOOSTS INSTABILITY OVER THE
AREA...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST HALF BUT REMAIN
HIGHER TO THE WEST OF UPPER MI. THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHRTWVS BRUSHING THE
AREA IN THE SSW FLOW COULD SET OFF A FEW ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
THE REGION...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF UPPER MI...BUT WITH TIMING/POSITION
REMAINING UNCERTAIN JUSTIFYING CONTINUED CHANCE POPS. OVERALL MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO DELAY THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE PCPN.
SUN INTO MON...EXPECT HIGHER PCPN CHANCES AS MODELS HINT AT A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHRTWVS AFFECTING THE AREA AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE NRN LAKES. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS
ALSO EXPECTED WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AOA 40 KNOTS AND ML/MU CAPE
VALUES AOA 1500 J/KG.
TUE...LOW LEVEL CYCLCONIC FLOW AND SHRTWVS ON THE SRN SIDE OF THE
MID LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL KEEP POTENTIAL FOR SCT
-SHRA GOING. COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY WED WITH
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF ALL THE TAF SITES...BUT THEY DO REMAIN
NOT THAT FAR AWAY AT KIWD AND KSAW. EXPECT SCT-BKN LOWER VFR
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING AT BOTH
SITES. MEANWHILE SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AT KCMX. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO DECREASE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT KIWD AND KSAW WITH LIGHT
WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS WITH DIRECTION INFLUENCED BY
LAKE BREEZES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...LESS THAN 25 KTS. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE AREA...YET WIND SPEEDS WILL
STILL REMAIN 25 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
149 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
CWA BUT ARE HANGING ON ELSEWHERE. FOLLOWED THE RAP AND NAM AS THEY
HAVE DECENT HANDLE ON COVERAGE OF CURRENT SKY COVER. EXPECT THE ONLY
PLACE TO STAY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WILL BE NORTHWEST CWA. CONTINUED TREND
OF LOWER TEMPS THERE. BASED ON PWATS DOWN TO 75 PCT OF NORMAL...CLEAR
SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...FAVORED INTERIOR SPOTS OF ONTONAGON/SOUTHERN
HOUGHTON/BARAGA COUNTIES AND PERHAPS FAR WESTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY
COULD SEE TEMPS FALL AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S. WITH LIGHT WINDS...EVEN
SPOTS ON KEWEENAW COULD DIP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES OR EVEN UPPER 30S.
ELSEWHERE THOUGH TWEAKED TEMPS UPWARD SOME BASED ON THE STUBBORN
CLOUD COVER...GENERALLY BTWN 2500FT AND 6000 FT PER SFC OBS. COULD
SEE TEMPS END UP WELL INTO THE 50S ALONG WI BODER AND MAYBE EVEN IN
THE EAST...BUT SINCE THE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR IS CLOSE BY...DID
NOT ADJUST THAT HIGH JUST QUITE YET IN CASE SOME CLEARING DEVELOPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING ACROSS NORTHERN
WI AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH HIGHER CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL WI. ADDITIONALLY...CLOUD
COVER IS SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE NORTH...WITH NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR
SEEING ONLY A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S.
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOTED ON THE WV
IMAGERY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING TO EASTERN UPPER MI BY
18Z/25 AS SHOWN BY THE NAM/GEM. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT INCREASED
CLOUD COVER...HOWEVER...OVERALL FORCING HAS BEEN FAIRLY
WEAK...KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH. FARTHER
SOUTH IS ALSO THE LOCATION OF THE GREATER INSTABILITY. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CWA BRINGING THE DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA AND HELP
TO ERODE THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE U.P. AND BECOMING ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD BY 06Z/26. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE GOING TO BE A BIT
TRICKY TO FORECAST AS THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURE
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
MAXIMIZED IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS OVERNIGHT. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND 70 TO 80 PERCENT OF NORMAL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
U.P. WHERE...SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR...WHILE THE SOUTHERN AREAS END
UP NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. TRIED TO CAPTURE THIS TREND BY
COOLING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE OVER THE NORTH
HALF WHILE STICKING NEAR GUIDANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
IT WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A COUPLE COLDER SPOTS TO SEE
UPPER 30S...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. AGAIN THIS WILL ALL
BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON OVERALL CLOUD COVER. IN A FEW OF THE
LOCATIONS THAT FALL INTO THE 30S IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
TO SEE SOME PATCHY FROST...HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED.
THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
THIS ALONG WITH DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY AND ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TONIGHT
DESPITE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN
FRIDAY AND WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
BUT THINK MODELS ARE A LITTLE QUICK IN BRINGING IN LOW END RAIN
CHANCES TO WESTERN AREAS.
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND
EXPECT SEVERAL DIFFICULT TO TIME SHORTWAVES TO EJECT OUT AHEAD OF IT
IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE CAPPING WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AND OVERALL LAPSE RATES DO NOT LOOK OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AREAS...BY LATE SATURDAY AND
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW CONVECTION
EVOLVES WEST OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH SHORT
WAVE TIMING TO ASSESS POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONGER TO SEVERE
CONVECTION AS UPPER TROUGH GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL
STILL REMAINS FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS SUNDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND WILL
KEEP A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY. COOL UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN LONGER OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
DIURNAL SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
COOLING OFF TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF ALL THE TAF SITES...BUT THEY DO REMAIN
NOT THAT FAR AWAY AT KIWD AND KSAW. EXPECT SCT-BKN LOWER VFR
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING AT BOTH
SITES. MEANWHILE SKIES WILL STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AT KCMX. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO DECREASE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT KIWD AND KSAW WITH LIGHT
WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS WITH DIRECTION INFLUENCED BY
LAKE BREEZES. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...LESS THAN 25 KTS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STILL REMAIN 25 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
408 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS DEAL WITH ONSET OF ANY TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY
AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS
AFTN/OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY... FOG/STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN DEVELOPING
ACROSS WESTERN WI OVER THE PAST HR OR TWO BASED ON THE LATEST
VIS/FOG IMAGERY. LATEST HOPWRF HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SPREAD OF
THE LOWER CLDS/FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR EC MN/WC WI WHICH CURRENTLY
SEEMS REASONABLE THRU 15Z. ELSEWHERE...ONLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THRU NOON.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SHIFT TO THE SE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS SAID BEFORE...MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING AS MLCAPES
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ARND 1000 J/KG BY NOON. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST RAP HAS TRENDED WITH DRIER AIR MIXING IN THE LOWEST 1 KM
DEVELOPING BY NOON. THIS WILL ALLOW MLCAPE VALUES TO HOLD OR EVEN
FALL DURING THE AFTN. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A CAP...SO
DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS/TCU/CBS ARE LIKELY. BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS
ONLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH/SW OF THE MN RIVER
VALLEY. NORTH AND NE OF THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT...ONLY FAIR WX
CUMULUS IS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE OR NO CHC OF PRECIPITATION. IN
ADDITION...IT SEEMS THAT ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER AIR SUPPORT/SFC FEATURES OR
LLJ. THE BEST CHC/S DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WC/SW MN AS THE THETA-E RIDGE
MOVES CLOSER TO THE MN/SD/ND BORDER AND THE INCREASE IN THE LLJ
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH 80S
LIKELY...ONLY CONCERN IS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BLOCKING FULL
ISOLATION. TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE MUCH MORE HUMID WITH DEW PTS
RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...SO TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
MUCH OF THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FROM NEAR THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDERS WESTWARD ON FRIDAY. A MERIDIONAL FLOW WITH STRONG RIDGING
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD SUPPRESS MUCH ACTIVITY FOR THE DAY A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN AND +25C 925 TEMPS SHOULD FACILITATE HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK CAPPING...ALMOST
SUSPICIOUSLY WEAK...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY
A FEW ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOP DURING THE STRONG HEATING AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY OF THE AFTERNOON. BY EVENING...THE LLJ WILL
STRENGTHEN AND VEER EASTWARD SPREADING THE ACTIVITY FROM THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE DAKOTAS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. SOME
WANING OF THIS ACTIVITY IS INDICATED BY MOST MODELS...SO KEPT POPS
LOW ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.
THE TROUGH WILL INCH EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY WITH VERY MOIST PWATS AND THE STRONGEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING IT. PWATS WILL BE BETWEEN 2 AND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. A DEEP WARM LAYER WITH FREEZING
LEVELS OF 13KFT ARE EXPECTED. BUFKIT MBE VELOCITIES LESS THAN 5 KTS
ARE TROUBLE FOR NEARLY STATIONARY OR BACK BUILDING THUNDERSTORMS. GFS
AND NAM DIFFER A BIT ON MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE NAM HAS A MUCH
MORE EFFICIENT AND MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING WHILE THE GFS IS
STEEPER IN THE MID LEVELS AND LOOKS MORE CONVECTIVE. IT IS
POSSIBLE THE NAM IS CONTAMINATED BY ONGOING PRECIP AND APPEARS
MORE EFFICIENT THAN IT SHOULD BE. THEREFORE...SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE BUT THE WRITING ON THE WALL IS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD
BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL WITHIN THE
TROUGH BY AFTERNOON...AND INCHED THE POPS EASTWARD WITH THE TROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EMERGES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND JET EASTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LARGE CYCLONE PARKED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FALLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ATOP A HOT AND
HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS /HIGHS 85-90F AND DEW POINTS 65-70F/
WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000
J/KG. AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES DURING PEAK
HEATING...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER MINNESOTA
AND PERSIST WELL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OVER IOWA AND WISCONSIN.
STRENGTHENING 500 MB WINDS WITH SPEED MAXES OF 70-80 KT SUNDAY
EVENING AND A LOOPING HODOGRAPH THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BRING
SUPERCELLS INITIALLY CAPABLE OF ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING TORNADOES...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY A
WIND DAMAGE/LARGE HAIL THREAT AS WINDS BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL
DURING THE LATE EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE BEST CHANCES
OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY HAS SEEN SO FAR THIS
YEAR.
THE SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY ACROSS WISCONSIN
BEFORE THE DRY SLOT PUSHES IN BY LATE MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE PLEASANT...ALBEIT BREEZY.
FOR MIDWEEK...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE BREEZY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AS THE CORE OF THE COLD MID LEVEL AIR ARRIVES. RIDGING
WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS FOR LATE WEEK WITH MODELS SHOWING A
WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
THE FIRST CONCERN THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS WHETHER FOG/STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
LOCAL WEATHER AND ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS. STRATUS CLOUDS ARE
STILL LINGERING OVER CENTRAL MN NEAR KSTC. WHILE THE TREND HAS
BEEN TOWARD GRADUAL SHRINKING OF THIS DECK THIS EVE...WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME RE-EXPANSION AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE EXPECT KSTC TO
SEE PROLONGED MVFR CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE FOG THREAT
EXTENDING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. EXPECT KMSP
TO BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE FOG AREA...WITH KRNH AND KEAU
MORE IN THE HEART OF THE LOWER VSBYS. HAVE INCLUDED LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT WI SITES...BUT KEPT KMSP VFR AT THIS
POINT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT THERE OVERNIGHT.
THE NEXT CONCERN AFTER THE FOG POTENTIAL IS SURROUNDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS/TS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST MN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH GRADUAL EXPANSION TO THE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE AREA ON THURSDAY EVE. DUE TO RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING/COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION...HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF VICINITY
SHOWERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KRWF IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
TROUGH.
WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY ON
THURSDAY.
KMSP...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOA 7 KTS OVERNIGHT...SO KEPT THE BR
VSBYS AT 6SM. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF WAA SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE AFTER 00Z FRIDAY WITH
MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED OF SHOWERS
LIFTING INTO THE AREA.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...CHANCE MVFR SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY EARLY AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS SE
10-15 KTS.
SAT...CHANCE MVFR SHRA/TSRA...POSSIBLE IFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
SUN...MVFR SHRA/TSRA LIKELY...POSSIBLE IFR. WINDS SSW 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
330 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
In the very near term, the main focus will be on precipitation
chances this morning with a cluster of thunderstorms currently
heading east across north central KS, and very isolated storms that
have developed across our far northern CWA. The KS storms have moved
off the LLJ and have shown some signs of weakening; however, some
isentropic lift has kept storms from diminishing entirely as they
build east and southeast. These storms could brush the northwestern
edge of the CWA around 12z, but should be much weaker at that point
and are not expected to survive into the mid morning hours. The
isolated storms which developed across far northern Missouri around
midnight have since lifted north of the IA border, and little to no
additional development is expected. Have cut back PoPs across all
but the northern few tiers of counties through noon, then allowed
for a gradual increase across the entirety of the forecast area as
the atmosphere becomes gradually uncapped. Any isolated storms that
develop this afternoon will shift eastward and begin to weaken this
evening, then additional storm development will be possible after
midnight as a shortwave trough begins to drop southeastward out of
eastern NE. Highs today should be similar to yesterday, with quick
rises into the upper 80s during the early afternoon, then a leveling
off of temperature rises as diurnal cumulus develops.
Thunderstorm chances will continue this weekend and through early
next week as an upper trough begins lifting across the northern
Rockies and into the northern Plains. A strengthening EML should
hold down the isolated afternoon storm development chances; however,
an eastward shift of the nocturnal LLJ and slightly stronger forcing
from shortwave troughs riding up the upper trough will support more
widespread thunderstorms, especially at night. After the trough
passes to our north on Tuesday or Wednesday, a surface boundary will
likely linger somewhere in the vicinity of the CWA, supporting
continued thunderstorm chances near and south of the front. Highs
will be mainly in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees and lows will
likely linger in the lower 70s most nights, but exact high/low
temperatures will depend on precipitation and the eventual boundary
position next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
Widely scattered elevated convection expected across northwest MO
overnight as a weak mid level trough drifts through eastern NE.
Satellite imagery shows widely scattered mid level instability clouds
from east central KS across the northwest third of MO. Radar shows
isolated convection popping up. Latest HRRR as well as 00z NAM and
GFS suggest widely scattered convection will evolve across southeast
NE/southern IA/northwest MO. Given current trends will mention VCTS
at KSTJ but leave out of Kansas City. Low confidence activity will
last past mid Thursday morning.
Models have done poorly, i.e over-forecasting convection, lately in this
uncapped/low shear environment with no boundaries to work with. While
overall confidence remains low on timing/location of convection on
Thursday will lean towards afternoon time-frame for isolated
convection which could pop-up just about anywhere.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1213 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
Continued to pare away overnight PoPs as overall confidence is low on
convection forming or moving into the region. Think best chance will be
over northwest MO. Latest RUC/HRRR and NAM drift a h7 vorticity lobe
east into eastern NE and generate isolated to scattered convection,
but not overly optimistic it`ll get into the CWA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
Main forecast issue for tonight is whether thunderstorms can develop
in a weakly unstable and weakly capped airmass. Congested cumulus
field can be seen developing along an ill-defined boundary from near
Jefferson City into northern parts of KC and into far northwest MO.
This is the most likely corridor for showers and storms to develop
through the early evening, but overall forcing is very weak and
convection may struggle to develop at all. May see a slight boost in
lift as a subtle wave tracks out of central KS early this evening,
but overall expect most areas to remain dry overnight. Any storm that
develops will be weak and short-lived with an airmass very
unsupportive of any organized storms.
Thursday will see a similar story with an uncapped and weakly
unstable airmass, but this time may have slightly better lift with a
slightly stronger impulse tracking out of the High Plains. Therefore
expect a bit better coverage of any convection that develops but
still fairly scattered in nature with most areas again remaining dry.
The threat for any strong storms will remain low on Thursday.
Slightly stronger capping on Friday should limit any scattered
thunderstorm activity to central Missouri and points eastward. Better
chances for convection will arrive with a strong upper-level trough
Saturday and Saturday night. This system has the potential to produce
numerous thunderstorms particularly from areas near I-70 northward into
Nebraska and Iowa. Shear doesn`t appear supportive for many strong
storms but available moisture could support some locally heavy rain.
By Sunday and Monday increasing capping should shift the focus for
any scattered convection into far northern Missouri and points
northward, but increasing rain chances will return across much of the
area when a weak front drops into the region Monday night and
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
Widely scattered elevated convection expected across northwest MO
overnight as a weak mid level trough drifts through eastern NE.
Satellite imagery shows widely scattered mid level instability clouds
from east central KS across the northwest third of MO. Radar shows
isolated convection popping up. Latest HRRR as well as 00z NAM and
GFS suggest widely scattered convection will evolve across southeast
NE/southern IA/northwest MO. Given current trends will mention VCTS
at KSTJ but leave out of Kansas City. Low confidence activity will
last past mid Thursday morning.
Models have done poorly, i.e over-forecasting convection, lately in this
uncapped/low shear environment with no boundaries to work with. While
overall confidence remains low on timing/location of convection on
Thursday will lean towards afternoon time-frame for isolated
convection which could pop-up just about anywhere.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
327 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
VW IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING FEATURE OF INTEREST...PAC NW
SHORTWAVE...APPROACHING THE COASTLINE WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW PRETTY
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NW TROF
WILL BECOME NEG TILT WITH 70M HGT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT.
REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR INDICATING A LINE OF EWD BOUND CONVECTION OVER
THE CNTRL DAKOTAS WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NW KS ALSO
PUSHING EAST. ACTIVITY OCCURRING ALONG INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
AXIS/BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADV. LATEST HRRR SHOWS LINE OF CONVECTION
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THRU 12Z THIS MORNING.
ON THE WHOLE...NAM/GFS/ECM QPF PRODUCTS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE
BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR 36HRS AND OUT...MAKING POP PLACEMENT QUITE
PROBLEMATIC. HOWEVER...THE HRRR AS WELL AS ARW/NMM SEEM TO HAVE
PERFORMED RATHER WELL. GIVEN THAT...WILL FOLLOW THE LATTER FOR HOW
MORNING CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE. ALL THREE PROG GRADUAL DISSIPATION THRU
12Z AS IT APPROACHES THE WRN CWA.
LATER THIS MORNING...BOTH ARW/NMM SHOW AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NE
NEB EXPANDING SWD DURING THE AFTN HOURS...THEN INTO WRN IA THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL PCPN ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE THEN REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS AREA OF FORCING IS MAINTAINED
VIA MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT/BNDRY LYR THETA-E CONVG/MODERATE
DIFFERENTIAL DIVG. AND WITH GULF REMAINING OPEN...PROLONGED MOISTURE
ADVECTION SHOULD ENSURE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL
REMAIN MOISTURE RICH.
AS FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL...GFS AND ECM ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT BRUNT OF INSTABILITY/DEEP LYR SHEAR WILL BE FOUND JUST
WEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN AS WELL AS FRIDAY AFT. SATURDAY THOUGH
LOOKS BETTER FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE ACTIVITY WHEN BUOYANCY/SHEAR
SHIFTS EWD TWD THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
PCPN CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PDS SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING LOOKING PARTICULARLY INTERESTING WRT
POSSIBLE SEVERE WX OUTBREAK. BOTH GFS/ECM SHOW 850MB FRONT LIFTING
ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR WITH MOISTURE
RICH ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR THOUGH MAY BE
LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS DEEP CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO BE
SITUATED IN CNTRL CANADA AT THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS...THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
AND A WEATHER DISTURBANCE COULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL
THREE TAFS SITES. IN THE LAST HOUR...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR LINCOLN. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND COVERAGE...WILL
INCLUDE JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS OF VCTS/TSRA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE CHARACTER OF THE LINE OF STORMS WILL CHANGE AND
THE LOW LEVEL JET COULD ENHANCE SOME AREAS WHILE OTHER AREAS
WEAKEN. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY FOG/HAZE IN THE AM
AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1136 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WLY FLOW ALF INCREASING NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER TROF MOVES INTO
GREAT BASIN AND SFC LEE TROF DEVELOPS. CENTRAL MT CHAIN WWD AOA
SCT150. CENTRAL MT CHAIN EASTWARD SCT-BKN140 ISOLD TSRA G40KT
UNTIL AROUND 09Z. LCL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 14Z AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MIGRATED WESTWARD AGAIN. DRIER SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO INCREASE BEFORE 17Z...PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EASTWARD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...309 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIR MASS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BREEZIER WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD
LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. AFTER THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS HIGHS
REACH WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE STATE. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING AND MOVE EAST WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE DRYLINE. THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
NE PLAINS AS THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SO
MAINTAINED LOW END CHANCE POPS. BASED ON SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
AND LATEST LAPS READINGS...A FEW SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE FAR NE PLAINS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST.
A DRY AIR MASS INDICATED BY THE CIRA BLENDED TPW PERCENT OF NORMAL
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
SCOUR OUT MOISTURE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE DRYLINE SETTING
UP ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER EACH DAY. MODELS HINT THAT THE
DISTURBANCE MAY DIP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SET OFF A FEW STORMS OVER
THE NORTHERN MTS FRIDAY...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE DRYLINE. STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO
BREEZIER CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. A FIRE WX WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL WEST TO EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY AS PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE DISTURBANCE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE NE PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING AND DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NE PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING. THIS THINKING
IS IN LINE WITH THE HIGH RES NAM MODEL THAT PICKS UP ON POTENTIAL
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY LACK.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BECOMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL AREA WIDE BY SUNDAY.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...INCREASING MOISTURE AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO THE AREA
UNDERNEATH THE HIGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ITS LATE IN THE MODEL
RUNS...BUT THIS MAY BE THE FIRST SIGNS OF MONSOON LIKE ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. HOPEFULLY THIS TREND HOLDS
IN ENSUING MODEL RUNS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENTLY HAVE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE EVENING DIMINISHING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THIS MORNINGS
READINGS STAYING ABOVE NORMAL AREA WIDE. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT
ACROSS THE EAST.
INTO THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
AND EASTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA WITH THE SUB TROPICAL HIGH
ELONGATED INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DRASTICALLY DECREASE WITH VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY EXPECTED AND ANYTHING
THAT DOES FORM WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
STATE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL MODERATE ACROSS THE WEST AND WILL TREND UP
ELSEWHERE. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCOMING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. WINDS ACROSS THE WEST AS WELL AS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL SEE GUSTS INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AREA WIDE WITH TEENS AND
LOW 20S ALONG THE FAR EASTERN BORDER WHERE MOISTURE IS STAYING PUT.
SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS AND THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS WITH SOME
SUPER HAINES VALUES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT WITH HIGH HAINES VALES AREA WIDE.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH INTENSIFYING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR AREA WIDE WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL LOWS TO
START OFF YOUR DAY. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AS
WELL AS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS WHERE TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS ARE FORECAST. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FURTHER ACROSS ALL AREAS...MOST PRONOUNCED AGAIN
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. THE DRYLINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE
STATE WITH MOISTURE DECREASING ACROSS THE EAST. MIN RH VALUES WILL
AGAIN BE DISMAL WITH TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS AREA WIDE. COMBINATION
OF THE WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAD TO MULTIPLE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
ZONES 103 AND 107 THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO SHOWING UP IN ZONES 104 AND 108
BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED THEM IN THE WATCH AT THIS TIME BECAUSE THEY
HAVE RECEIVED A LOT OF PRECIPITATION OF LATE. VENTILATION RATES WILL
BE EXCELLENT AREA WIDE.
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL ENSUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MINIMAL
CHANCES OF RAIN. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE STATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PULL LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SET UP
DURING THIS TIME THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
21
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-107.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
151 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS COMBINED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 109 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE...THOUGH I`VE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO POPS AND WX WITH THIS
UPDATE TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THAT THE RAIN SHIELD IS NOW
PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED IN EASTERN VERMONT...WITH MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY SOCKED IN WITH LOW OVERCAST. EARLY LOOK AT
THE 00Z NAM WANTS TO BRING CONTINUED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BUT FEEL THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE AS
COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST. RAIN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END SHORTLY
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT.
HOWEVER...I DO NOTE THE APPROACH OF THE MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW ACORSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IT`S
ACCOMPANIED BY A GOOD RIBBON OF DRY MID- LEVEL AIR...WHICH WILL
OVERSPREAD SATURATED LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS OVERNIGHT. IN FACT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP MODEL SHOW UNSATURATED CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ABOVE -8 TO -10C OVERNIGHT...WHICH AT LEAST OPENS THE
DOOR FOR DRIZZLE IN AREAS WHERE RAIN HAS ENDED. COULD SEE PATCHY
MIST IN SPOTS AS WELL BUT LACK OF ANY BREAKS IN OVERCAST WOULD
OFFER AGAINST ANY FOG. I`VE ALSO CUT PRIOR FORECAST QPF DOWN
SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN HAVING LARGELY ENDED. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S...NOT FALLING ALL THAT MUCH GIVEN AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE MORNING...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON
THERE WILL BE A TREND TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS WITH SKIES BEGINNING
TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. UPPER FLOW REMAINS BROADLY CYCLONIC EARLY FRIDAY
PRODUCING SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS BUT AS THE FLOW UPPER RIDGE BUILD
FURTHER INTO THE NORTHEAST SKIES WILL TREND CLEAR FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY
SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH A FEW 40S IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. A RETURN OF MORE COMFORTABLE
DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY IS ALSO EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY 14C-20C...IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
LEAD TO DAYTIME MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. MIN TEMPS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S-L60S.
ON SUNDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WHILE RIDGING ALOFT
LOOKS TO CREST OVER THE REGION. LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DESCEND
FROM CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY NGT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING SOME WEAK
VORTICITY THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS. THIS
VORT MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...RAIN HAS ALL BUT COME TO AN END ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY DRIZZLE EXPECTED THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MVFR/VFR CATEGORIES
EXCEPT AT KRUT AND KMPV WHERE LIFR/VLIFR CEILINGS EXISTED. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z ALTHOUGH
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHWEST VERMONT LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME
PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. AFTER 12Z LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH VFR/MVFR
CEILINGS AND VFR VISIBILITIES. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN
16Z AND 00Z...BUT THEY SHOULD NOT IMPACT VISIBILITIES AT ALL.
SKIES FINALLY CLEAR AFTER 00Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EARLY...THEN GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AFTER 12Z
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN BY 00Z.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WL BUILD
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY 12Z FRIDAY...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND SATURATED NEAR SFC
CONDITIONS BTWN 06Z-12Z ON FRI AND SATURDAY MORNINGS...EXPECT
FOG/BR WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT
MSS/MPV/SLK. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH A THREAT OF AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING BY MONDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...EVENSON/TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
109 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS COMBINED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND IS REPLACED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 109 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS IN GOOD
SHAPE...THOUGH I`VE MADE A FEW CHANGES TO POPS AND WX WITH THIS
UPDATE TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS THAT THE RAIN SHIELD IS NOW
PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED IN EASTERN VERMONT...WITH MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE NORTH COUNTRY SOCKED IN WITH LOW OVERCAST. EARLY LOOK AT
THE 00Z NAM WANTS TO BRING CONTINUED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BUT FEEL THIS IS A BIT OVERDONE AS
COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST. RAIN SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END SHORTLY
ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT.
HOWEVER...I DO NOTE THE APPROACH OF THE MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW ACORSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IT`S
ACCOMPANIED BY A GOOD RIBBON OF DRY MID- LEVEL AIR...WHICH WILL
OVERSPREAD SATURATED LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS OVERNIGHT. IN FACT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP MODEL SHOW UNSATURATED CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ABOVE -8 TO -10C OVERNIGHT...WHICH AT LEAST OPENS THE
DOOR FOR DRIZZLE IN AREAS WHERE RAIN HAS ENDED. COULD SEE PATCHY
MIST IN SPOTS AS WELL BUT LACK OF ANY BREAKS IN OVERCAST WOULD
OFFER AGAINST ANY FOG. I`VE ALSO CUT PRIOR FORECAST QPF DOWN
SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN HAVING LARGELY ENDED. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S...NOT FALLING ALL THAT MUCH GIVEN AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS EAST OF THE GREENS IN THE MORNING...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON
THERE WILL BE A TREND TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS WITH SKIES BEGINNING
TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. UPPER FLOW REMAINS BROADLY CYCLONIC EARLY FRIDAY
PRODUCING SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS BUT AS THE FLOW UPPER RIDGE BUILD
FURTHER INTO THE NORTHEAST SKIES WILL TREND CLEAR FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY
SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH A FEW 40S IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. A RETURN OF MORE COMFORTABLE
DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY IS ALSO EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 333 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY 14C-20C...IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
LEAD TO DAYTIME MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. MIN TEMPS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S-L60S.
ON SUNDAY...SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WHILE RIDGING ALOFT
LOOKS TO CREST OVER THE REGION. LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DESCEND
FROM CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY NGT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING SOME WEAK
VORTICITY THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY AS UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS. THIS
VORT MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...SFC ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT ACRS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BAND OF POST FRONTAL LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WITH IFR
VIS/CIGS ACRS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES. MEANWHILE...DRIER
AIR ON NORTHERLY WINDS HAS RESULTED IN VFR CONDITIONS AT
PBG/MSS...WHICH SHOULD CONT INTO THURS. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND
SATURATED LLVLS...EXPECTING IFR CIGS TO PREVAIL THRU 12Z THURS AT
SLK/MPV AND RUT. AT BTV CIGS/VIS WL FLUCTUATE BASED ON PRECIP
INTENSITY WITH PERIODS OF IFR VIS/CIGS IN THE HEAVIER
PRECIP...TAPERING TO MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND VFR VIS AFT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. A SLOW IMPROVING TREND IS EXPECTED AT MPV/SLK AFT 12Z
THURS WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY THRU 14Z...FOLLOWED VFR FOR ALL SITES
BY 16Z. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WL PREVAIL
THRU 00Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SFC HIGH PRES WL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY 12Z FRIDAY...RESULTING
IN LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH RECENT RAINFALL
AND SATURATED NEAR SFC CONDITIONS BTWN 06Z-12Z ON FRI AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS...EXPECT FOG/BR WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT MSS/MPV/SLK. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON
SUNDAY AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH A THREAT OF AFTN/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVING BY MONDAY. &&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...TABER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
559 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK 500 HPA TROUGH WILL PROVIDE RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A BUILDING RIDGE OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
6AM UPDATE...NUDGED LOWER POPS THIS AM AND LOWERED CLOUD AMOUNTS
AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. SATELLITE DATA COULD HELP IMPROVE CLOUD
NOWCASTS AS VISIBLE DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY INTO THE REGION AS THE LOW
PRESSURE OVER NJ AND THE TROUGH IS TO OUR EAST...ALONG WITH THE
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE AND SHOWERS. DEW POINTS IN PENNSYLVANIA ARE
MAINLY IN THE 60S.
THE LOW AND TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER THIS MORNING. THUS
NORTHERLY FLOW AND SLOWLY FALLING DEW POINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DRY THE REGION OUT.
RADAR SHOWS NO RETURNS OVER OUR REGION AND OVER THE REGION THE
3-4KM MODELS HAVE SHOWN LIGHTS. KEPT POPS LOW OVER REGION THROUGH
NOON. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WHICH WILL BURN OFF
RELATIVELY FAST LATER THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COOLER DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY ON NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE 06Z RAP IMPLIES SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS...THOUGH LOWER COVERAGE THAN EARLIER
RUNS.
THE 03Z SREF TOO SHOWS 20-50 PERCENT OF ITS MEMBERS WITH LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PUT SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE SHOWERS IN
FORECAST MAINLY NORTH AND WEST AND NEAR NY BORDER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PW MOVES IN OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE
SREF AGAIN...IT HAS A WET BIAS...IMPLIES SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. KEPT THESE CLOSER TO TERRAIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD
BE RAIN FREE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG 500 HPA RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE A STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW A SURGE OF MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE AND
A 500 HPA SHORT WAVE WILL SLOWLY PUSH A FRONTAL SYSTEM TOWARD THE
REGION AROUND MID-WEEK. THIS COULD TRIGGER MORE ORGANIZED RAIN AND
THEN ALLOW THE REGION TO DRY OUT. AT THIS TIME PW VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FROM ABOUT 3-5 JULY.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AS THE HIGH PW AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE DEEP
MOISTURE AND HIGH PW AIR SHOULD BE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY FURTHER INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PW AIR ALLOWS THE EFS TO PRODUCE
RELATIVELY HIGH CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE REGION IN THE LATE
TUESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY TIME FRAME...TIMING VARIES BY MEMBER IN
THE GEFS AND CMC-EFS. ALL HAVE THE RIDGE MOVING EAST AS A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. KEPT POPS
CHANCE AS THE TIMING OF THE BEST RAIN PERIOD WILL CHANGE. THE DEEP
WARM MOIST AIR AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SUGGEST CHANCE SHOWERS
MOST AFTERNOONS UNTIL FROPA.
AT THIS TIME...THE DRIER AIR SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO THE REGION
EITHER SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE 2 AND 3RD OF JULY. THIS IMPLIES LOW
PW AIR OVER THE REGION FOR THE 4TH...AND LOWER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURE WISE...THE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL
LATE SUNDAY TO EARLY MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. SHOULD BE A RELATIVE WARM AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WARM PERIOD MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR IS LINED UP
WELL WITH THE MOIST AIR...A PRETTY MUGGY PERIOD TO START THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO WINDS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL USHER IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 14Z. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO REMAINS PLENTIFUL AFTER RAINFALL ON WED...AND
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP AND
PROVIDE VARIABLE RESTRICTIONS AREAWIDE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY VFR WILL OCCUR BY LATE MORNING
THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY CFRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH BRIEF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING OVER THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT
THESE LIKELY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT-MON...GENERALLY VFR...BUT LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
433 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK 500 HPA TROUGH WILL PROVIDE RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A BUILDING RIDGE OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY INTO THE REGION AS THE LOW
PRESSURE OVER NJ AND THE TROUGH IS TO OUR EAST...ALONG WITH THE
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE AND SHOWERS. DEW POINTS IN PENNSYLVANIA ARE
MAINLY IN THE 60S.
THE LOW AND TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATER THIS MORNING. THUS
NORTHERLY FLOW AND SLOWLY FALLING DEW POINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DRY THE REGION OUT.
RADAR SHOWS NO RETURNS OVER OUR REGION AND OVER THE REGION THE
3-4KM MODELS HAVE SHOWN LIGHTS. KEPT POPS LOW OVER REGION THROUGH
NOON. THERE ARE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WHICH WILL BURN OFF
RELATIVELY FAST LATER THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COOLER DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY ON NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE 06Z RAP IMPLIES SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS...THOUGH LOWER COVERAGE THAN EARLIER
RUNS.
THE 03Z SREF TOO SHOWS 20-50 PERCENT OF ITS MEMBERS WITH LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PUT SLIGHT CHANCE-CHANCE SHOWERS IN
FORECAST MAINLY NORTH AND WEST AND NEAR NY BORDER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PW MOVES IN OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. THE
SREF AGAIN...IT HAS A WET BIAS...IMPLIES SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. KEPT THESE CLOSER TO TERRAIN. MOST AREAS SHOULD
BE RAIN FREE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG 500 HPA RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE A STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW A SURGE OF MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE AND
A 500 HPA SHORT WAVE WILL SLOWLY PUSH A FRONTAL SYSTEM TOWARD THE
REGION AROUND MID-WEEK. THIS COULD TRIGGER MORE ORGANIZED RAIN AND
THEN ALLOW THE REGION TO DRY OUT. AT THIS TIME PW VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FROM ABOUT 3-5 JULY.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AS THE HIGH PW AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE DEEP
MOISTURE AND HIGH PW AIR SHOULD BE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION BY
SUNDAY FURTHER INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH PW AIR ALLOWS THE EFS TO PRODUCE
RELATIVELY HIGH CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE REGION IN THE LATE
TUESDAY TO EARLY THURSDAY TIME FRAME...TIMING VARIES BY MEMBER IN
THE GEFS AND CMC-EFS. ALL HAVE THE RIDGE MOVING EAST AS A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MORE
ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. KEPT POPS
CHANCE AS THE TIMING OF THE BEST RAIN PERIOD WILL CHANGE. THE DEEP
WARM MOIST AIR AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SUGGEST CHANCE SHOWERS
MOST AFTERNOONS UNTIL FROPA.
AT THIS TIME...THE DRIER AIR SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO THE REGION
EITHER SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE 2 AND 3RD OF JULY. THIS IMPLIES LOW
PW AIR OVER THE REGION FOR THE 4TH...AND LOWER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURE WISE...THE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL
LATE SUNDAY TO EARLY MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. SHOULD BE A RELATIVE WARM AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WARM PERIOD MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR IS LINED UP
WELL WITH THE MOIST AIR...A PRETTY MUGGY PERIOD TO START THE WORK
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO WINDS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL USHER IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 14Z. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO REMAINS PLENTIFUL AFTER RAINFALL ON WED...AND
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP AND
PROVIDE VARIABLE RESTRICTIONS AREAWIDE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY VFR WILL OCCUR BY LATE MORNING
THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY CFRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH BRIEF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING OVER THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT
THESE LIKELY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT-MON...GENERALLY VFR...BUT LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
245 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK 500 HPA TROUGH WILL PROVIDE RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A BUILDING RIDGE OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SLID TO OUR EAST AND TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70 IN
SOUTHEAST. SOME CENTRAL AREAS HAVE CLEARED OUT. DEW POINTS ARE
STILL MAINLY IN THE 60S.
THE MODELS SHOW SLOW DRYING OUT AS RESIDUAL HIGH PW AIR STILL
SLOWLY WORKING OUT OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING AND DRY
AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN. THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST VERY SLOWLY LIFTING
AND THERE IS NO BIG HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST TO PUSH DRY AIR TOO
FAST.
THUS WITH ALL THE RAIN AND POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY...PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM AND ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG
ARE POSSIBLE IN VALLEYS WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINS FELL.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SAG INTO THE REGION TODAY. IT WILL BE
NOTICABLY DRIER AND SUNNIER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THE SURFACE FLOW
IS WEAK BUT MODEST NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP DRY
IT OUT.
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RETURN TO RATHER COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW COULD TRIGGER
MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SEEM
TO FAVOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. REALLY SPOTTY STUFF.
SREF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION (PDF) IMPLIES HIGHEST PDF
POPS IN NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE. BUT CLEARLY SIGNAL IN HIGHER RESOLUTION
SYSTEM IS FOR SOME SHOWERS ABOUT MAINLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NW TO THE MID 80S
IN THE FAR SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWD FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TO THE
SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z SAT. THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL
BECOME INCORPORATED INTO THE SEASONALLY FAMILIAR BERMUDA HIGH
CIRCULATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW SOLIDIFYING THE DEFINITE SUMMERTIME PATTERN. MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE DATA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING NORTH OF 30N WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AROUND 588M OVER CENTRAL
PA OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MEAN FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...EXPECT PERSISTENCE FORECAST
TO PERFORM REASONABLY WELL WITH INCREASINGLY HOT/HUMID AFTERNOONS
WITH WEAKLY FORCED ISOLD TO SCT AIRMASS CONVECTION GIVING WAY TO
WARM/MUGGY NIGHTS.
WITH SUMMERTIME RIDGING MAKING ITS PRESENCE FELT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWER 48...THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK...IN TURN...WILL BE LIFTED
NOD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER - WHICH IS VERY TYPICAL HEADING
INTO JULY. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA
ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA /MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO/ BY NEXT TUE-WED. PCPN
WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG SERIES OF ATTENDANT COLD FRONTS PUSHING EWD
THRU THE PLAINS/MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY. WPC SFC
SPROGS SHOW A LEAD BOUNDARY REACHING THE UPPER OH VLY ON 30 JUNE
FOLLOWED BY A MORE WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION
BY 1-2 JULY. USING PWATS AS A GENERAL GUIDE...THE HIGHEST POPS
ARE LKLY IN THE SUN-WED TIMEFRAME WHEN MSTR AVAILABILITY WILL BE
+1SD ABOVE NORMAL. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVG IN SEEING TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING UPSLOPE
COMPONENT TO WINDS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL USHER IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH 14Z. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO REMAINS PLENTIFUL AFTER RAINFALL ON WED...AND
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP AND
PROVIDE VARIABLE RESTRICTIONS AREAWIDE.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY VFR WILL OCCUR BY LATE MORNING
THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY CFRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH BRIEF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING OVER THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT
THESE LIKELY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT-MON...GENERALLY VFR...BUT LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
237 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK 500 HPA TROUGH WILL PROVIDE RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A BUILDING RIDGE OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
RELATIVELY WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SLID TO OUR EAST AND TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70 IN
SOUTHEAST. SOME CENTRAL AREAS HAVE CLEARED OUT. DEW POINTS ARE
STILL MAINLY IN THE 60S.
THE MODELS SHOW SLOW DRYING OUT AS RESIDUAL HIGH PW AIR STILL
SLOWLY WORKING OUT OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING AND DRY
AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN. THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST VERY SLOWLY LIFTING
AND THERE IS NO BIG HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST TO PUSH DRY AIR TOO
FAST.
THUS WITH ALL THE RAIN AND POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY...PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM AND ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG
ARE POSSIBLE IN VALLEYS WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINS FELL.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SAG INTO THE REGION TODAY. IT WILL BE
NOTICABLY DRIER AND SUNNIER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THE SURFACE FLOW
IS WEAK BUT MODEST NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP DRY
IT OUT.
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RETURN TO RATHER COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW COULD TRIGGER
MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SEEM
TO FAVOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. REALLY SPOTTY STUFF.
SREF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION (PDF) IMPLIES HIGHEST PDF
POPS IN NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE. BUT CLEARLY SIGNAL IN HIGHER RESOLUTION
SYSTEM IS FOR SOME SHOWERS ABOUT MAINLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NW TO THE MID 80S
IN THE FAR SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWD FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TO THE
SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z SAT. THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL
BECOME INCORPORATED INTO THE SEASONALLY FAMILIAR BERMUDA HIGH
CIRCULATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW SOLIDIFYING THE DEFINITE SUMMERTIME PATTERN. MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE DATA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING NORTH OF 30N WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AROUND 588M OVER CENTRAL
PA OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MEAN FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...EXPECT PERSISTENCE FORECAST
TO PERFORM REASONABLY WELL WITH INCREASINGLY HOT/HUMID AFTERNOONS
WITH WEAKLY FORCED ISOLD TO SCT AIRMASS CONVECTION GIVING WAY TO
WARM/MUGGY NIGHTS.
WITH SUMMERTIME RIDGING MAKING ITS PRESENCE FELT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWER 48...THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK...IN TURN...WILL BE LIFTED
NOD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER - WHICH IS VERY TYPICAL HEADING
INTO JULY. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA
ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA /MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO/ BY NEXT TUE-WED. PCPN
WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG SERIES OF ATTENDANT COLD FRONTS PUSHING EWD
THRU THE PLAINS/MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY. WPC SFC
SPROGS SHOW A LEAD BOUNDARY REACHING THE UPPER OH VLY ON 30 JUNE
FOLLOWED BY A MORE WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION
BY 1-2 JULY. USING PWATS AS A GENERAL GUIDE...THE HIGHEST POPS
ARE LKLY IN THE SUN-WED TIMEFRAME WHEN MSTR AVAILABILITY WILL BE
+1SD ABOVE NORMAL. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVG IN SEEING TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED FOR UPSLOPE FLOW
AT BFD AND JST TO ALLOW FOR MVFR TO IFR CIGS...THIS WILL ONLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z.
THIS IS DUE TO THE LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY WEAK NW
FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF STRATUS...1-3SM VSBYS
IN FOG...AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN
MTNS.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY VFR WILL OCCUR DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH BRIEF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING OVER THE AREA. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THESE LIKELY
WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
OUTLOOK...
THU...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAINLY VFR BUT SOME LINGERING SHRA
POSSIBLE AND LOW CIGS LIKELY IN THE MORNING.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT-SUN...GENERALLY VFR...BUT LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS..GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
113 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SLIGHTLY
LESS HUMID AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL CREEP BACK UP DURING THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEKEND AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SLID TO OUR EAST AND TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70 IN
SOUTHEAST. SOME CENTRAL AREAS HAVE CLEARED OUT. DEW POINTS ARE
STILL MAINLY IN THE 60S.
THE MODELS SHOW SLOW DRYING OUT AS RESIDUAL HIGH PW AIR STILL
SLOWLY WORKING OUT OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS MORNING AND DRY
AIR SLOWLY WORKING IN. THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST VERY SLOWLY LIFTING
AND THERE IS NO BIG HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST TO PUSH DRY AIR TOO
FAST.
THUS WITH ALL THE RAIN AND POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY...PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM AND ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG
ARE POSSIBLE IN VALLEYS WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINS FELL.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY RANGE THROUGH THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SAG INTO THE REGION TODAY. IT WILL BE
NOTICABLY DRIER AND SUNNIER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THE SURFACE FLOW
IS WEAK BUT MODEST NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP DRY
IT OUT.
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RETURN TO RATHER COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW COULD TRIGGER
MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE 4KM NAM AND RAP SEEM
TO FAVOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. REALLY SPOTTY STUFF.
SREF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION (PDF) IMPLIES HIGHEST PDF
POPS IN NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE. BUT CLEARLY SIGNAL IN HIGHER RESOLUTION
SYSTEM IS FOR SOME SHOWERS ABOUT MAINLY CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NW TO THE MID 80S
IN THE FAR SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWD FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TO THE
SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z SAT. THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL
BECOME INCORPORATED INTO THE SEASONALLY FAMILIAR BERMUDA HIGH
CIRCULATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW SOLIDIFYING THE DEFINITE SUMMERTIME PATTERN. MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE DATA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING NORTH OF 30N WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AROUND 588M OVER CENTRAL
PA OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MEAN FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...EXPECT PERSISTENCE FORECAST
TO PERFORM REASONABLY WELL WITH INCREASINGLY HOT/HUMID AFTERNOONS
WITH WEAKLY FORCED ISOLD TO SCT AIRMASS CONVECTION GIVING WAY TO
WARM/MUGGY NIGHTS.
WITH SUMMERTIME RIDGING MAKING ITS PRESENCE FELT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWER 48...THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK...IN TURN...WILL BE LIFTED
NWD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER - WHICH IS VERY TYPICAL HEADING
INTO JULY. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA
ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA /MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO/ BY NEXT TUE-WED. PCPN
WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG SERIES OF ATTENDANT COLD FRONTS PUSHING EWD
THRU THE PLAINS/MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY. WPC SFC
PROGS SHOW A LEAD BOUNDARY REACHING THE UPPER OH VLY ON 30 JUNE
FOLLOWED BY A MORE WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION
BY 1-2 JULY. USING PWATS AS A GENERAL GUIDE...THE HIGHEST POPS
ARE LKLY IN THE SUN-WED TIMEFRAME WHEN MSTR AVAILABILITY WILL BE
+1SD ABOVE NORMAL. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVG IN SEEING TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED FOR UPSLOPE FLOW
AT BFD AND JST TO ALLOW FOR MVFR TO IFR CIGS...THIS WILL ONLY
INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z.
THIS IS DUE TO THE LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY WEAK NW
FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF STRATUS...1-3SM VSBYS
IN FOG...AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN
MTNS.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY VFR WILL OCCUR DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY CFRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH BRIEF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING OVER THE AREA. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THESE LIKELY
WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
OUTLOOK...
THU...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAINLY VFR BUT SOME LINGERING SHRA
POSSIBLE AND LOW CIGS LIKELY IN THE MORNING.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT-SUN...GENERALLY VFR...BUT LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
216 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT THURSDAY...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...BASICALLY
TWEAKING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVED TRENDS. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...BUT QUICKLY DRY UP IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS ACROSS THE WEST. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE TROUGH HAS WORKED INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING WITH MOST
SHOWERS NOW EAST OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL FAINT SURFACE COOL
FRONT TO THE NW. WESTERLY FLOW IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE HAS ALSO
ACTED TO LIMIT ADDED INSTABILITY AND LIFT WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHRA
SEEN UPSTREAM. SOME OF THIS COVERAGE COULD SLIDE INTO THE FAR NW
ZONES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT OVERALL APPEARS MOST WILL GO
MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS DEWPOINTS FALL A BIT AND WINDS
TURN NW. THUS HAVE REMOVED MOST POPS PER THE LATEST HRRR EXCEPT
FOR THE UPSLOPE NW WHERE A SHOWER OR TWO COULD OCCUR THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES BUT EVEN THAT APPEARS
IFFY. ALSO DECREASED CLOUD COVER SOONER WITH PC TO MOSTLY CLEAR
OUTSIDE OF THE UPSLOPE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND BEEFED UP FOG
COVERAGE ESPCLY SE WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURRED. LOW TEMPS
AGAIN IN THE 60S EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER TONIGHT WESTERN VALLEYS
GIVEN SOME DRYING BEFORE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPS.
ON THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION ALLOWING A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS TO SPREAD SOUTH. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ALONG WITH
UPSLOPE NW FLOW. WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION
ALLOWED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 90
DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
OVERALL MODELS SIMILAR IN HAVING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF US
THU NIGHT-FRIDAY. SFC HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS TIME...WITH SFC FLOW TURNING MORE EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
START TO FADE THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...DUE TO INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE.
NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD...BUT GIVEN SOME
CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LVLS AND HIGHER PWATS...THINK THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO FRI NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.
TEMPS FOLLOWED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS WITH LOWS ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THU NIGHT IF CLOUDS ARE LESS OVER THE
MTNS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. LIGHT EAST FLOW
AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT HIGHS FROM BEING TOO WARM FRI BUT
STILL 80S CWA WIDE...EXCEPT 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPS WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES FRI NIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 60S MTNS TO
UPPER 60S EAST. SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR ON HIGHS BUT COULD BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER IF MORE SUN OCCURS. GOING WITH 80S CWA
WIDE...LOWER 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
YOU CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME ACROSS OUR AREA THIS PERIOD.
MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN RESPECT TO UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
U.S. BUT OVERALL APPEARS THE VIRGINIAS AND NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE
STUCK IN AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST WED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
BACKDOOR TOWARD THE NRN CWA BY MIDWEEK.
OVERALL...DECIDED TO CUT POPS BACK FROM LIKELY TO CHANCE GIVEN LACK
OF ANY REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM SYNOPTICALLY THIS PERIOD. STILL SOME
FOLKS WILL GET RAINED AND STORMED ON AT SOME POINT DURING THIS TIME.
BUT GENERALLY EXPECT YOUR USUAL SCATTERING OF STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNINGS.
MODELS DO FAVOR MOISTURE STAYING RAMPED UP WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUNSHINE. EXPECT MUGGY NIGHTS AND VERY WARM/HOT HUMID DAYS. WITH
MOISTURE CONTENT STAYING ELEVATED THINK HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY CLOSE
TO SEASONAL NORMS OR JUST ABOVE. STILL THE HUMIDITY WILL ADD TO THE
HEAT INDEX FACTOR BY A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM EDT THURSDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SPOTTY LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT REMAINS SITUATED ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO CARRY IMPULSES
RESULTING IN SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THESE
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP AS THEY ENTER THE DOWNSLOPE SIDE OF
THE RIDGES. A FEW LOCATIONS ARE COOLING TO SATURATION...AND EXPECT
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT KLWB BEFORE SUNRISE...AS
WELL AS ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON
WEDNESDAY SUCH AS KLYH.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH OVERNIGHT...ENTERING
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AROUND SUNRISE AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY...RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...HOWEVER
WILL NOT SEE ANY MAJOR DROP IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. AS SUCH...
EXPECT AN AFTERNOON CU FIELD TO DEVELOP WITH BASES IN THE 4KFT TO
6KFT RANGE. ALSO EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH TO PUT MORE THAN VICINITY MENTION IN
THE TAFS. ANY RAINFALL THAT PASSES OVER THE AIRPORTS WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY...AND WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN
1SM FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH DURING LATE EVENING...BUT EXPECT A FEW
SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST CAUSING WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO VEER MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGES INLAND FROM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE
EXCEPTION FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE WEST...WHERE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INCLUDING LOCAL BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.
RETURN OF WARM AND MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WERT
NEAR TERM...JH/KK/NF
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/NF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
104 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT THURSDAY...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...BASICALLY
TWEAKING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVED TRENDS. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS THE WESTERN
RIDGES...BUT QUICKLY DRY UP IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOW CHANCE WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS ACROSS THE WEST. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE TROUGH HAS WORKED INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING WITH MOST
SHOWERS NOW EAST OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL FAINT SURFACE COOL
FRONT TO THE NW. WESTERLY FLOW IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE HAS ALSO
ACTED TO LIMIT ADDED INSTABILITY AND LIFT WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHRA
SEEN UPSTREAM. SOME OF THIS COVERAGE COULD SLIDE INTO THE FAR NW
ZONES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT OVERALL APPEARS MOST WILL GO
MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS DEWPOINTS FALL A BIT AND WINDS
TURN NW. THUS HAVE REMOVED MOST POPS PER THE LATEST HRRR EXCEPT
FOR THE UPSLOPE NW WHERE A SHOWER OR TWO COULD OCCUR THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES BUT EVEN THAT APPEARS
IFFY. ALSO DECREASED CLOUD COVER SOONER WITH PC TO MOSTLY CLEAR
OUTSIDE OF THE UPSLOPE COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND BEEFED UP FOG
COVERAGE ESPCLY SE WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURRED. LOW TEMPS
AGAIN IN THE 60S EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER TONIGHT WESTERN VALLEYS
GIVEN SOME DRYING BEFORE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPS.
ON THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION ALLOWING A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS TO SPREAD SOUTH. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ALONG WITH
UPSLOPE NW FLOW. WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION
ALLOWED FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 90
DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
OVERALL MODELS SIMILAR IN HAVING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF US
THU NIGHT-FRIDAY. SFC HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS TIME...WITH SFC FLOW TURNING MORE EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
START TO FADE THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...DUE TO INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE.
NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD...BUT GIVEN SOME
CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LVLS AND HIGHER PWATS...THINK THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO FRI NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.
TEMPS FOLLOWED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS WITH LOWS ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THU NIGHT IF CLOUDS ARE LESS OVER THE
MTNS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. LIGHT EAST FLOW
AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT HIGHS FROM BEING TOO WARM FRI BUT
STILL 80S CWA WIDE...EXCEPT 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPS WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES FRI NIGHT WITH LOWER TO MID 60S MTNS TO
UPPER 60S EAST. SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR ON HIGHS BUT COULD BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER IF MORE SUN OCCURS. GOING WITH 80S CWA
WIDE...LOWER 80S WEST TO UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
YOU CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMER REGIME ACROSS OUR AREA THIS PERIOD.
MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN RESPECT TO UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN
U.S. BUT OVERALL APPEARS THE VIRGINIAS AND NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE
STUCK IN AN UPPER RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST WED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
BACKDOOR TOWARD THE NRN CWA BY MIDWEEK.
OVERALL...DECIDED TO CUT POPS BACK FROM LIKELY TO CHANCE GIVEN LACK
OF ANY REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM SYNOPTICALLY THIS PERIOD. STILL SOME
FOLKS WILL GET RAINED AND STORMED ON AT SOME POINT DURING THIS TIME.
BUT GENERALLY EXPECT YOUR USUAL SCATTERING OF STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE AT NIGHT/EARLY MORNINGS.
MODELS DO FAVOR MOISTURE STAYING RAMPED UP WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN
SUNSHINE. EXPECT MUGGY NIGHTS AND VERY WARM/HOT HUMID DAYS. WITH
MOISTURE CONTENT STAYING ELEVATED THINK HIGH TEMPS WILL STAY CLOSE
TO SEASONAL NORMS OR JUST ABOVE. STILL THE HUMIDITY WILL ADD TO THE
HEAT INDEX FACTOR BY A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST OF KDAN WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHRA NEARING KLYH WHICH
SHOULD AFFECT THAT VICINITY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHER
ISOLATED SHRA MAY DROP SE TOWARD KLWB AND KBLF...OTRW PUNCH OF
WEST WINDS BEHIND THE WEAK EASTERN SURFACE TROF AXIS WILL KEEP VFR
FOR THE MOST PART AND WITHOUT MANY ADDED SHRA THIS EVENING.
TROF LOOKS TO BE CLEAR OF ALL SITES AFTER SUNSET ALLOWING WINDS
TO SWING AROUND TO THE WEST FOLLOWED BY THE TRAILING SURFACE COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING DOWNSLOPE AND CLEARING TO
KROA/KLYH/KDAN BUT UPSLOPE AND CLOUDS TO KBCB/KLWB/KBLF. KBCB WILL
BE LEAST AFFECTED BUT BELIEVE KBLF AND KLWB WILL HAVE LOW CIGS
OVERNIGHT AND THEY WILL PERSIST FOR A BIT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AT SITES THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL OVER THE WEST. FEEL THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG WILL BE BLUE
RIDGE WEST WITH MORE ISOLATED PATCHY NATURE POSSIBLE AT KLYH/KDAN
WHERE RAINFALL WAS LIGHT OR PASSED NEARBY. THEREFORE KEEPING IN
THE IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS AT BOTH KBLF/KLWB AND INCLUDING
MVFR AT KBCB WITH A BRIEF MVFR TEMPO AT KLYH/KDAN.
THINGS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BY MID MORNING THURSDAY AS SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WORKS IN ON NW WINDS AT 7-15 KTS ALLOWING A RETURN TO
VFR FOR MOST SPOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT OCNL 4-6K FT CU
CIGS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONVECTION LOOKS ISOLATED
AT BEST SO KEEPING OUT MENTION ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGES INLAND FROM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE
EXCEPTION FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE WEST...WHERE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INCLUDING LOCAL BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.
RETURN OF WARM AND MOIST SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/WERT
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/MBS/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1115 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
BULK OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE CWFA LATE
THIS EVENING. STILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
STILL ONGOING OVR CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES ALONG WITH WK SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF CHEYENNE. HAVE TWEAKED PRECIP
CHANCES GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS OVR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HAVE
COMPLETELY REMOVED MENTION AFTER 10 PM. COULD BE A TAD EARLY...BUT
THE DRYING TREND WILL REMAIN INTACT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. IN
AN EARLIER UPDATE...CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
INITIAL LOOK AT 00Z NAM OUTPUT CONTINUE TO BE POINT TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE
RIDING EAST ACROSS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
THIS FEATURE WAS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROBUST CONVECTION ALONG
AND TO THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILE WAS MODEST
AT 30-40 KT COMBINED WITH SBCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. A FUNNEL CLOUD
WAS OBSERVED JUST WEST OF CHEYENNE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEVERAL STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST
WY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION
EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST INTO THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
EVENING PER THE HRRR MODEL. A SEVERE TSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
9 PM MDT FOR ALL BUT CARBON COUNTY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER MODES
WILL BE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL FUNNEL CLOUDS AND
EVEN A WEAK TORNADO IN THE VICINITY OF BOUNDARY MERGERS.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING. COULD
SEE SOME SHALLOW MIST OR LIGHT FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY FOR THE
PLAINS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. LOOKING AT A
MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY WITH MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT. SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LAYING
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS DRIFTS CLOSER TO
THE WY-NE BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDING DATA SHOWS THE
700-850MB THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH AXIS OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY /SBCAPES 2500-3500 J/KG/ ALONG AND EAST OF
THE WY-NE BORDER...DEPICTED BY SPC/S DAY TWO SLIGHT RISK AREA.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. WEAKER CONVECTION
MAY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT NORTH OF A DOUGLAS TO
ALLIANCE LINE WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROVIDING MORE INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION. RISK FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...WITH ISOLATED STRONG TSTORMS POSSIBLE
FOR THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLE.
UNDER THE PRESENCE OF THE THERMAL RIDGE THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS.
700MB TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM 15C THURSDAY TO 8C FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
FAIRLY QUIET IN THE LONG RANGE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY EVENING WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
MODELS SHOW A PLEASANT WEEKEND SETTING UP FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED TSTORM NORTH OF A LINE FROM DOUGLAS TO
ALLIANCE NEBRASKA...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY
AS A COOL FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL LOWER BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...BUT
IT WILL STILL BE WARM. AS WITH MOST CASES OF FROPA...CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MONDAY EVENING...SO KEPT POP AROUND
20 PERCENT. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
VFR OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER FAR SE WY AND
MOVING EAST INTO THURS EVENING...PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR AND
TURBULENCE...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROVIDE SOME WETTING RAINFALL...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AT 10 TO 15 PERCENT. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES ALONG WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAHN
SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
849 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2014
.Synopsis...
Scattered light showers mainly over the mountains today,
diminishing through the afternoon as a low pressure system exits
the region. Dry weather and a quick warm up is in store for Friday
through the weekend with hot temperatures expected by early next
week.
&&
...Short Term Discussion (Today through Sunday)...
Upper level shortwave will bring some lingering rain showers
today, mainly to the mountains and foothills. These will diminish
as the system exits the area later this afternoon. Radar shows
heavier showers west of Mineral. The Sierra continue to see some
rain showers, with a weather spotter in Kingvale reporting 0.23
inches overnight. Most of the Valley should be dry today, though
an isolated shower could pop up later this morning in the northern
Sacramento Valley. HRRR model shows precipitation largely ended
across the forecast area by around sunset.
Winds at the Delta have diminished as the pressure has weakened.
Elsewhere, winds are a little breezier, and this will continue
into the evening.
Dry weather with temperatures warming about 20 degrees from today
to Monday. Triple digit heat in the Valley is expected early next
week, with maybe a slight cool down for mid week.
Forecast is on track, no morning updates needed.
EK
.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)
Surface high pressure pushing in over the Pacific Northwest will
bring dry northerly surface flow while building upper ridging over
the west coast will bring continued warming airmass. Daytime highs
Monday will push to several degrees above normal with highs in the
central valley reaching or exceeding 100 degrees. Little change is
expected on Tuesday as the upper ridge begins to shift eastward.
Extended models showing upper low approaching the Pacific
northwest coast around Wednesday of next week. May start to see a
little cooling as early as Wednesday but increased onshore flow
may take a little longer to start taking effect. A more
significant cooling in forecast for late next week as onshore flow
continues and weak upper troughing takes hold over the west coast.
&&
.Aviation...
Upper level trough moves through Northern California today with
generally VFR conditions except areas of mvfr conditions in the
mountains with showers. Southwest wind gusts up to 25kts near the
Delta and up to 35 kts over Sierra ridges.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
818 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
MID/UPPER LVL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
IS STILL PRODUCING ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
SIERRA AND FROM MONO COUNTY EAST-NORTHEAST INTO MINERAL AND SRN
LYON COUNTIES. THERE ARE ALSO LIGHT SHOWERS OVER AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80. SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EITHER TOO LIGHT OR
LOW-TOPPED TO BE NOTED ON RADAR.
WATER VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE THE TROUGH STARTING TO
MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA NOW. AS THIS PASSES
THROUGH TODAY IT SHOULD SIGNAL THE END OF MOST OF THE PCPN AND A
THINNING OF CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...NOT ALL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO
DIMINISH UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
ALSO START TO DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.
WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA THIS
MORNING AND HANG ON TO CLOUDS A BIT LONGER THIS AFTERNOON. 20
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING BREEZY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH TODAY, AND IN MINERAL AND MONO COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE WEST WITH A
RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HOT TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED UP TO 0.10 INCH OF RAINFALL IN
PARTS OF NORTHEAST CA AND FAR NORTHWEST NV, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
ABOVE 0.25 INCH NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY, AS A BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH PW VALUES
FOR LATE JUNE MOVES THROUGH.
FARTHER SOUTH, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WHICH IS CURRENTLY
SPREADING RAIN INTO THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IS PROJECTED
TO MOVE INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
MAINLY THROUGH 7 AM. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SIERRA CREST
INCLUDING MAMMOTH LAKES, SO POPS WERE INCREASED IN THIS AREA.
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS SLIM, UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY
BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR PRODUCING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THIS
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE SIERRA.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOIST AIR MASS TODAY BUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 35 MPH FROM RENO-TAHOE EASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NV. THESE
WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS
PYRAMID LAKE, LAHONTAN RESERVOIR AND WALKER LAKE SO LAKE WIND
ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED. SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS WILL PEAK NEAR 70
MPH THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. IN AREAS
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED, HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S.
ON FRIDAY, LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE REGION. GUSTS MAY SURPASS 30 MPH AT
TIMES, BUT THESE GUSTY WINDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BEGIN LATER IN
THE DAY AND OCCUR FOR A SHORTER DURATION COMPARED TO TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR
MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START BUILDING OVER THE WEST AS THE WEEKEND
BEGINS, WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING. MANY VALLEYS IN WESTERN NV
SHOULD PUSH ABOVE 90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS AROUND 80
DEGREES FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS AND TAHOE BASIN. MJD
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SET TO BUILD INTO THE WEST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SIERRA.
THIS RIDGE WILL PUSH 700 MB TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN +16C AND +18C
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HOTTEST DAY LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY
WITH THE 700 MB TEMPERATURES PEAKING AT +18C. WE EXPECT TO SEE
OUR FIRST STRING OF 100+ DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SEASON. ALONG WITH
THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ALWAYS COMES A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO THE INCREASED INSTABILITY.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF THE RIDGE AND VORTICITY ENERGY COMING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE.
THEREFORE, DETAILS OF THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST WILL LIKELY GET
WORKED OUT AS WE GET CLOSER, BUT FOR NOW THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO
BE ON TUESDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO WESTERN NEVADA AND
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 500 MB COOL ENOUGH TO LIMIT CAPPING. STORMS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE TYPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONES OF LASSEN
AND MONO COUNTIES, ALTHOUGH IF MID LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY (AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST), THIS COULD SPREAD THE STORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE RENO-TAHOE AREA AS WELL.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT PAST WEDNESDAY, SHOWING A
DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK. IT
WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO MONITOR THIS BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE,
ESPECIALLY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS GOING INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH GUSTY WINDS FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOON
AVIATION...
INCREASED MOISTURE IS BRINGING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
SIERRA OF MONO COUNTY THIS MORNING AND NORTH OF KSVE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUD DECKS OVER KTRK AND KTVL SHOULD REMAIN VFR,
ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM MIXED IN TODAY, ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS ARE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION MODE EXPECTED. WEST WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY AGAIN TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, WINDS SLOW AS RIDGING
SURGES. RUNWAY TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE AMBIENT AIR
TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY AND LIKELY IN
TRIPLE DIGITS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOYD/HOON
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ004.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ002.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS
EVENING NVZ001.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
540 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2014
.UPDATE TO AVIATION DISCUSSION.
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH A MODERATE COOLING TREND THROUGH
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AN UPWARD TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...EXPECT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES NOW APPROACHING MERCED COUNTY AS AN UNUSUALLY LATE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN AND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
THE HRRR MODEL BRINGS THIS BAND OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS FRESNO BY AROUND 800 AM. NOT REALLY TO
CONFIDENT THAT MANY PLACES WILL MEASURE, RATHER SPRINKLES OR TRACE
AMOUNTS AT BEST. SAME MODEL DISSIPATES THE FRONT BEFORE IT MOVES
SOUTH OF FRESNO BY MID MORNING.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MAIN WEATHER PLAYER THIS FORECAST OVER
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS AND THE WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL NOT
BLOW CONTINUOUSLY FROM NOW THROUGH SATURDAY, RATHER THE TARGETED
PERIODS FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE 2 PM TO 2 AM EACH DAY. THE
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE WORDED AS SUCH.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, AFTER A FRONTAL AND MARINE AIR INFLUENCED
COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY TODAY, THE FORECAST WILL GET HOT. SOME
MODERATE HEATING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND
THE MARINE AIR IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY MIXES OUT. MORE ROBUST
WARMING TAKES PLACE ON SATURDAY WITH 100+ READINGS BECOMING
WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY. THE HOTTEST WEATHER WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHERE SOME OF THE TRADITIONALLY HOTTEST
LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH 110 DEGREES. TIME TO GET READY FOR THE HEAT.
&&
.AVIATION...
WINDS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AND BELOW THE
MOUNTAIN PASSES OF KERN COUNTY THROUGH 12 FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
PLEASE SEE SFOAQAHNX.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 06-26 108:1993 69:1913 77:1925 48:1965
KFAT 06-27 110:1925 76:1906 77:1973 51:1955
KFAT 06-28 108:2010 71:1952 77:1926 51:1906
KBFL 06-26 111:1925 75:1965 82:1925 41:1907
KBFL 06-27 111:1925 76:1996 80:2006 42:1913
KBFL 06-28 114:1976 74:1913 84:1925 40:1913
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY CAZ095-098-099.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...PJ
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
452 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS OTHERWISE BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. NO BIG CHANGES
ON FRIDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHEN INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 90S AND LOWER 100S.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:33 AM PDT THURSDAY...LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN
REPORTED IN THE LAST HOUR AT KSFO...OAKLAND AND LIVERMORE. ABOUT
24 HOURS AGO THE LOW RESOLUTION GFS STARTED SHOWING SOME QPF
DURING THE 6-12Z TIME FRAME AND NOW WERE SEEING IT DEVELOP. THE
SHORT TERM RAP AND HRRR MODELS HAVE PICKED IT UP AS WELL WITH THE
PRECIP BAND NOW HEADING OVER THE EAST BAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
THE KMUX-88D RADAR RETURNS IN VCP 12. ITS BEEN A MILD NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 60 WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S. BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY AREA AND LEFT
FRONT EXIT REGION OF 500 MB JET MAX BEST EXPLAINS THE DYNAMICAL
FORCING MOST LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR SCOPE. PER LATEST IR AND RADAR TRENDS
AS WELL AS THE RAP MODEL ANY DRIZZLE/SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
BAY AREA BY ABOUT 13Z THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THEN DECREASE WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON.
TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7. ON FRIDAY THE
FLOW WILL STAY ZONAL WITH RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. ITLL BE DRY OVER THE BAY AREA WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
A FEW DEGREES BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY BUT THE FLOW WILL BE
DISTINCTLY ONSHORE...KEEPING THE COAST COOL WITH MARINE CLOUDS
WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO THE 80S.
MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE MARINE LAYER
COMPRESSES TO LESS THAN 500 FEET. WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 90S
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH HOT TEMPERATURES WITHIN A
FEW MILES OF THE COAST WHILE LOWER 100S WILL OCCUR FOR THE INLAND
VALLEYS.
LATEST LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP WARM TO HOT WEATHER IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
COAST AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS WHILE PUSHING THE WARM HIGH BACK
TOWARDS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 04:45 AM PDT THURSDAY...FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS
MORNING...RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND VISIBILITIES
HAVE IMPROVED. INCREASED MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD PROMOTE MORE
CLEARING TODAY THOUGH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP CLOUDS IN
COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. EARLIER CLEARING ALSO
POSSIBILITY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY MIXING OCCURS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR THIS MORNING. CLEARING FORECAST FOR
18-19Z...LOW CONFIDENCE. EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS LIKELY.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR TO PERSIST MOST OF THE
MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. STRATUS TO RETURN BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 03:48 AM PDT THURSDAY...A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL LEAVE BEHIND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SOUTH OF POINT SUR. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN
OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. LIGHT LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL MOVE
INTO THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: AC
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
322 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING BREEZY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH TODAY, AND IN MINERAL AND MONO COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE WEST WITH A
RAPID WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HOT TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED UP TO 0.10 INCH OF RAINFALL IN
PARTS OF NORTHEAST CA AND FAR NORTHWEST NV, WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
ABOVE 0.25 INCH NEAR THE OREGON BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY, AS A BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH PW VALUES
FOR LATE JUNE MOVES THROUGH.
FARTHER SOUTH, A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WHICH IS CURRENTLY
SPREADING RAIN INTO THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IS PROJECTED
TO MOVE INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
MAINLY THROUGH 7 AM. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SIERRA CREST
INCLUDING MAMMOTH LAKES, SO POPS WERE INCREASED IN THIS AREA.
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS SLIM, UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY
BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR PRODUCING A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THIS
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE SIERRA.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOIST AIR MASS TODAY BUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS
TO 35 MPH FROM RENO-TAHOE EASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NV. THESE
WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS
PYRAMID LAKE, LAHONTAN RESERVOIR AND WALKER LAKE SO LAKE WIND
ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED. SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS WILL PEAK NEAR 70
MPH THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. IN AREAS
NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED, HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S.
ON FRIDAY, LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE REGION. GUSTS MAY SURPASS 30 MPH AT
TIMES, BUT THESE GUSTY WINDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BEGIN LATER IN
THE DAY AND OCCUR FOR A SHORTER DURATION COMPARED TO TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR
MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START BUILDING OVER THE WEST AS THE WEEKEND
BEGINS, WITH WARMING TREND CONTINUING. MANY VALLEYS IN WESTERN NV
SHOULD PUSH ABOVE 90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS AROUND 80
DEGREES FOR THE SIERRA VALLEYS AND TAHOE BASIN. MJD
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SET TO BUILD INTO THE WEST THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SIERRA.
THIS RIDGE WILL PUSH 700 MB TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN +16C AND +18C
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HOTTEST DAY LOOKS TO BE ON TUESDAY
WITH THE 700 MB TEMPERATURES PEAKING AT +18C. WE EXPECT TO SEE
OUR FIRST STRING OF 100+ DEGREE DAYS FOR THE SEASON. ALONG WITH
THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ALWAYS COMES A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO THE INCREASED INSTABILITY.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF THE RIDGE AND VORTICITY ENERGY COMING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE.
THEREFORE, DETAILS OF THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST WILL LIKELY GET
WORKED OUT AS WE GET CLOSER, BUT FOR NOW THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO
BE ON TUESDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO WESTERN NEVADA AND
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 500 MB COOL ENOUGH TO LIMIT CAPPING. STORMS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE TYPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONES OF LASSEN
AND MONO COUNTIES, ALTHOUGH IF MID LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES THROUGH ON
TUESDAY (AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST), THIS COULD SPREAD THE STORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE RENO-TAHOE AREA AS WELL.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT PAST WEDNESDAY, SHOWING A
DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK. IT
WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO MONITOR THIS BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE,
ESPECIALLY FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS GOING INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH GUSTY WINDS FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOON
&&
.AVIATION...
INCREASED MOISTURE IS BRINGING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
SIERRA OF MONO COUNTY THIS MORNING AND NORTH OF KSVE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUD DECKS OVER KTRK AND KTVL SHOULD REMAIN VFR,
ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM MIXED IN TODAY, ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS ARE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION MODE EXPECTED. WEST WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY AGAIN TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, WINDS SLOW AS RIDGING
SURGES. RUNWAY TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE AMBIENT AIR
TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY AND LIKELY IN
TRIPLE DIGITS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOYD/HOON
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PDT THIS
EVENING NVZ004.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ002.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PDT THIS
EVENING NVZ001.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
305 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH A MODERATE COOLING TREND THROUGH
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AN UPWARD TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...EXPECT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES NOW APPROACHING MERCED COUNTY AS AN UNUSUALLY LATE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN AND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
THE HRRR MODEL BRINGS THIS BAND OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS FRESNO BY AROUND 800 AM. NOT REALLY TO
CONFIDENT THAT MANY PLACES WILL MEASURE, RATHER SPRINKLES OR TRACE
AMOUNTS AT BEST. SAME MODEL DISSIPATES THE FRONT BEFORE IT MOVES
SOUTH OF FRESNO BY MID MORNING.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MAIN WEATHER PLAYER THIS FORECAST OVER
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS AND THE WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL NOT
BLOW CONTINUOUSLY FROM NOW THROUGH SATURDAY, RATHER THE TARGETED
PERIODS FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE 2 PM TO 2 AM EACH DAY. THE
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE WORDED AS SUCH.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, AFTER A FRONTAL AND MARINE AIR INFLUENCED
COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY TODAY, THE FORECAST WILL GET HOT. SOME
MODERATE HEATING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND
THE MARINE AIR IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY MIXES OUT. MORE ROBUST
WARMING TAKES PLACE ON SATURDAY WITH 100+ READINGS BECOMING
WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY. THE HOTTEST WEATHER WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHERE SOME OF THE TRADITIONALLY HOTTEST
LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH 110 DEGREES. TIME TO GET READY FOR THE HEAT.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOCAL SFC WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AND
BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS UNTIL 15Z
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
PLEASE SEE SFOAQAHNX.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 06-26 108:1993 69:1913 77:1925 48:1965
KFAT 06-27 110:1925 76:1906 77:1973 51:1955
KFAT 06-28 108:2010 71:1952 77:1926 51:1906
KBFL 06-26 111:1925 75:1965 82:1925 41:1907
KBFL 06-27 111:1925 76:1996 80:2006 42:1913
KBFL 06-28 114:1976 74:1913 84:1925 40:1913
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY CAZ095-098-099.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...PJ
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1056 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT NOW MORNING WELL EAST MONTAUK WITH
NW FLOW HAVING DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION DEW POINT FALLING INTO
THE MID 60S OVER THE WEST. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT/TROF NOW INTO
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.
THIS BACKDOOR BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO EASTERN CT THIS AFTERNOON
LEAVING A VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.
THUS EXPECTING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT AND AROUND THE NY METRO.
TEMPS NEAR 80F AS OF 11 AM...EXPECT TEMPS NEAR 90 OVER NE NJ (NW
FLOW) WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GETTING TOWARDS THIS IN THE CITY
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD COVER - BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS IT APPEARS CLOUDS WILL WIN OUT. NAM MOS NUMBERS
FROM 00Z RUN LOOK A LOT BETTER THAN CURRENT GFS MOS AND LAMP MOS.
IN FACT, LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 32C SURFACE TEMPS AT KEWR
AND 31C AT KLGA.
12Z NAM STILL INDICATES 500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTM INITIATION ALONG CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARIES.
WITH AN INVERTED V ANY TSTMS THIS AFTN COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
THE JET DRAWS A BACKDOOR CDFNT THRU LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY
EVE. THIS BRINGS STABLE AIR IN FROM THE MARITIMES AND REDUCES THE
TSTM AND THEN PCPN THREAT ACROSS THE AREA. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY
BY MIDNIGHT PER THE LATEST DATA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN AT THE MID LVLS. MARINE LAYER HOWEVER MAY
BE TRAPPED. THIS IS WHAT THE MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST. ACROSS
WRN ZONES...ENOUGH UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY FOR PERHAPS A SHRA...SO
MAINTAINED LOW CHCS IN THE FCST. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
COOLER WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS FRI NIGHT...ISOLD SHOWERS MAY
ALSO OCCUR FARTHER EAST. UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
AS IT MOVES TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SAT MAY ALSO HELP GENERATE
ISOLD SHOWERS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
A TREND TOWARD VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDS SHOULD BEGIN ON MON AS
THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS A LITTLE MORE TO THE SOUTH AND AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO HELPS GENERATE MORE OF A RETURN SW-S FLOW.
DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
MAINLY FROM NYC NORTH/WEST. BEST INSTABILITY AND CHANCES FOR THUNDER
LOOK TO OCCUR ON WED AS THE LOW MOVES INTO QUEBEC AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES WEST FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
MVFR STRATOCU STREAKS RISE TO VFR THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. PSBL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SHRA DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ALONG SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PARTICULARLY AT KGON WITH BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACH.
POTENTIAL FOR TSTM AT KGON...LOW CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE.
8 TO 10 KT N/NW FLOW ACROSS METRO TERMINALS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS.
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AT SOUTH COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS COME AROUND TO THE N AND EVENTUALLY E/NE LATER
TONIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
AFTR 18Z. ISOLATED SHRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFT 18Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED SHRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFT 18Z.
LOW PROBABILITY OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 20 AND 23Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AFTR 19Z. ISOLATED SHRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFT 18Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI-SUN...VFR.
.MON...AFT/EVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT PSBL ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BLW SCA LVLS THRU TNGT. WINDS BEHIND THE
CDFNT THIS EVE HOWEVER WILL TURN TO THE NE AND MAY OCCASIONALLY
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT.
OCEAN SEAS AS HIGH AS 4 FT IN EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRI SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MON NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPF FOR TODAY A MIX OF THE GEM AND SREF. BASIN AVE PCPN GENERALLY
LESS THAN A HALF INCH. HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY SLOW MOVING STORMS WHICH MAY HUG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE FLOOD THREAT IS VERY LOW...IT IS NOT ZERO
FOR THIS REASON. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEREAFTER NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
952 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT CLEARING EAST END WITH LIGHT NW
FLOW SETTING UP. DEW POINT FALLING INTO THE MID 60S. BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT/TROF NOW INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.
THIS BACKDOOR BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO EASTERN CT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON LEAVING A VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. THUS EXPECTING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ACROSS LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT AND AROUND THE NY METRO.
TEMPS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE AS OF 9 AM...EXPECT TEMPS NEAR 90
OVER NE NJ (NW FLOW) WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GETTING TOWARDS
THIS IN THE CITY FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. NAM MOS NUMBERS
FROM 00Z RUN LOOK A LOT BETTER THAN CURRENT GFS MOS AND LAMP MOS.
IN FACT, LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SUPPORT 32C SURFACE TEMPS AT KEWR
AND 31C AT KLGA.
NAM INDICATES AROUND 1000 J/KG SBCAPE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTM INITIATION ALONG CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES.
WITH AN INVERTED V ANY TSTMS THIS AFTN COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
THE JET DRAWS A BACKDOOR CDFNT THRU LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY
EVE. THIS BRINGS STABLE AIR IN FROM THE MARITIMES AND REDUCES THE
TSTM AND THEN PCPN THREAT ACROSS THE AREA. ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY
BY MIDNIGHT PER THE LATEST DATA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A DRY AIRMASS BUILDS IN AT THE MID LVLS. MARINE LAYER HOWEVER MAY
BE TRAPPED. THIS IS WHAT THE MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST. ACROSS
WRN ZONES...ENOUGH UPSLOPE AND INSTABILITY FOR PERHAPS A SHRA...SO
MAINTAINED LOW CHCS IN THE FCST. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
COOLER WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS FRI NIGHT...ISOLD SHOWERS MAY
ALSO OCCUR FARTHER EAST. UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
AS IT MOVES TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SAT MAY ALSO HELP GENERATE
ISOLD SHOWERS WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
A TREND TOWARD VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDS SHOULD BEGIN ON MON AS
THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS A LITTLE MORE TO THE SOUTH AND AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO HELPS GENERATE MORE OF A RETURN SW-S FLOW.
DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
MAINLY FROM NYC NORTH/WEST. BEST INSTABILITY AND CHANCES FOR THUNDER
LOOK TO OCCUR ON WED AS THE LOW MOVES INTO QUEBEC AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT STALLS OVER EASTERN TERMINALS TODAY...WITH BACKDOOR
FRONT PUSHING WEST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
MVFR STRATUS THIS MORNING IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY...WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. PSBL SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SHRA DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ALONG SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PARTICULARLY AT KGON WITH BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACH.
POTENTIAL FOR TSTM AT KGON...LOW CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE.
8 TO 10 KT NW FLOW ACROSS METRO TERMINALS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS.
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AT SOUTH COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS COME AROUND TO THE N AND EVENTUALLY E/NE LATER
TONIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
AFTR 18Z. ISOLATED SHRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFT 18Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: ISOLATED SHRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFT 18Z.
LOW PROBABILITY OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 20 AND 23Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AFTR 19Z. ISOLATED SHRA DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFT 18Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.FRI-SUN...VFR.
.MON...AFT/EVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT PSBL ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BLW SCA LVLS THRU TNGT. WINDS BEHIND THE
CDFNT THIS EVE HOWEVER WILL TURN TO THE NE AND MAY OCCASIONALLY
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT.
OCEAN SEAS AS HIGH AS 4 FT IN EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRI SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MON NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
QPF FOR TODAY A MIX OF THE GEM AND SREF. BASIN AVE PCPN GENERALLY
LESS THAN A HALF INCH. HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY SLOW MOVING STORMS WHICH MAY HUG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE FLOOD THREAT IS VERY LOW...IT IS NOT ZERO
FOR THIS REASON. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS THEREAFTER NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...SEARS/NV
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...JMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
743 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
NH...NORTHWEST MA AND NORTHERN CT THIS EVENING...THEN AFFECT
MAINLY RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS ARRIVES THU NIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM UPDATE...
STARTING TO SEE CLOUDS LIFT AND BREAK UP ACROSS S NH INTO NW
MA...THOUGH STILL NOTING LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES
AT 11Z. ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAS
FORMED...RATHER DENSE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE S COAST. ALSO NOTING
BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS RI/SE MA...ALONG WITH SOME HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS MOVING OFF THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.
SHORT RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THINGS FAIRLY WELL...BUT
DID DO A QUICK UPDATE ON THE NEAR TERM GRIDS TO BRING CURRENT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 ON LIGHT S-SW WINDS. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SEEN ON LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS.
SHORT RANGE MODELS...ESPECIALLY LATEST HRRR AND RAP13 DATA...
INDICATING THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS OVER ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
THOUGH WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP. MOST OF THE ACTION
LOOKS TO OCCUR ACROSS E MA AND RI INTO NE CT TODAY. LOW PRES WILL
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH H925 JET AT AROUND 30 KT
CROSSING EASTERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY WHICH WILL HELP ENHANCE MORE
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL
SET UP ACROSS RI/SE MA BY MIDDAY...WHICH WILL FOCUS THE POOLING
HIGH DEWPTS AS WELL AS INSTABILITY...WITH K INDICES TO THE MID 30S
AND CAPES UP TO 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THIS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST TOO
LONG...FROM AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BE ENOUGH
TO CAUSE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AS WELL AS BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS. PRECIP SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE
BY SUNSET.
EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID AND UPPER 70S ACROSS S NH/N MA RANGING
TO THE LOWER-MID 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS STILL SIGNALING SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT ACROSS
S COASTAL AREAS EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH MAY SEE GUSTY WINDS AS IT
MOVES OFFSHORE. MODELS SHOWING GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT ACROSS S
COASTAL AREAS...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER
EARLY...THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CAUSE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TO REMAIN THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. ALSO NOTING HIGHER DEWPTS...HOLDING IN THE
MID 60S...LINGERING ACROSS THE CT VALLEY SO MIGHT SEE SOME LATE
NIGHT FOG DEVELOP THERE AS WELL.
TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN OVERNIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OUT OF
QUEBEC...WHICH WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE REGION ON
N-NE WINDS. EXPECT SEA BREEZES ALONG THE SHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMS...
TOPPING OFF IN THE 70S WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE LOWER CT VALLEY
POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY AND MUCH LESS HUMID FRIDAY NIGHT
* DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
* VERY WARM AND HUMID EARLY NEXT WEEK
MODEL EVALUATION...
GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH THE FINER DETAILS SUCH AS FRONTAL
POSITIONS. THUS HAVE FOLLOWED THESE TWO DATASETS FOR THE BULK OF
THIS FORECAST.
FRIDAY NIGHT...
LARGE HIGH PRES BUILDS SETTLES IN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...SO EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT/VRBL WINDS WELL INLAND
AND LIGHT N-NE WINDS ALONG THE SHORE. IT WILL BE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
CORE OF THE DRY/COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES OVER NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT
AND SAT. HIGH PRES OVERHEAD AND A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS BEFORE SUNRISE SAT IN THE U40S AND
L50S. NOT AS COOL IN THE URBAN CENTERS WITH LOWS 55-60. STRONG LATE
JUN SUN WILL QUICKLY WARM AIRMASS INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S...COOLER
ALONG THE COAST WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES. VERY COMFORTABLE WITH DEW
PTS REMAINING IN THE 50S. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER.
AS FOR SUNDAY MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS WEST OF NEW ENGLAND
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL YIELD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE REGION SUPPORTING DRY WEATHER. STRONG JUN SUN CONTINUES TO
WARM AIRMASS WITH 850 TEMPS CLIMBING TO ABOUT +14C. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE MU80S...WARMEST TEMPS INTERIOR NORTHEAST
MA WITH COOLEST TEMPS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AS HIGH PRES SLIPS SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SUFFICIENT SSW PGRAD TO OFFSET
ANY SEABREEZES FROM PLYMOUTH MA NORTHWARD TO THE NH BORDER. THUS
COULD BE VERY WARM AT BEACHES ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST. STILL
COMFORTABLE WITH DEW PTS IN THE MU50S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS MAY HIT 90 AS GEFS 925
TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +22C. COOLER SOUTH COAST GIVEN SSW WINDS. IT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH DEW PTS IN THE 60S. SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY DRY WEATHER MON AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE
BEFORE THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ARRIVES SOMETIME MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD A RISK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG WITH A
TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS HANGING ON THE S
COAST THROUGH 13Z-14Z...THEN SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE. AREAS OF
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
MAINLY ACROSS E MA/RI/NE CT. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PATCHY
FOG SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND OR AFTER 18Z. LOCAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
PRECIP WEAKENING OR MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
ACROSS E MA/S RI THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT THEN SHOULD IMPROVE.
HOWEVER...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP WELL INLAND AS WELL AS EASTERN
INTERIOR MA AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LEFTOVER ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE.
FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. ANY LEFTOVER MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS EARLY FRI MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR.
KBOS TAF...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE TODAY MAINLY FOR TIMING OF
LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AND ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR BY AROUND 18Z...BUT LOW CLOUDS MIGHT LINGER NEAR THE TERMINAL
AS N-NE WINDS DEVELOP. SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
KBDL TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MAY SEE MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY DEVELOPING SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR. MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT S-SW WINDS TO SHIFT TO N-NW
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS/SCT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE WATERS...MAY SEE GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAY SEE N WIND TO BRIEFLY
GUST TO 25 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY TONIGHT...THEN WILL BECOME N-NE AT 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS UP
TO 4 FT. MAY SEE 5 FOOT SWELLS WITH THE INCREASING NE FETCH ON THE
FAR OUTER WATERS E AND S OF NANTUCKET. HAVE PUT UP SMALL CRAFTS
FOR THIS. LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT N-NE WINDS IN PLACE WITH LOCAL
SEA BREEZES ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. NE SWELLS UP TO 5 FT
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON THE OUTER WATERS E AND S OF
CAPE COD.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
FRI NIGHT THRU MON...GREAT BOATING WEATHER AS HIGH PRES CREST
OVER NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT DRY WEATHER/GOOD VSBY AND LIGHT WINDS.
HIGH SLIPS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON YIELDING AN INCREASING S-SW
WIND.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/EVT
NEAR TERM...EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG/EVT
MARINE...NOCERA/EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1150 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FARTHER OFF THE
COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN
NEARBY HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS
TO REACH OUR REGION BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINED AT THE CUMULUS LEVEL DURING THE
MID MORNING HOURS. AS A RESULT, THE SKY OVER MUCH OF OUR REGION
WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OVERHEAD FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON SO WE WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD
COVER FORECAST A BIT.
THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, SO WE WILL KEEP
THEIR MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THE SHOWERS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK IMPULSE TRAVELING IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW.
THE SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR
TODAY. THE FLOW SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT FROM DRIFTING A FEW MILES INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON AT
MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A SORT OF BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT
AS THERE ARE SIGNS IN THE MODELS FOR A NNE FLOW DEVELOPING SWD
FROM THE COAST ALONG WITH A BAND OF LOW CLOUD IN THE STILL HUMID
LEFTOVER BL RH.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A SHOWER OR ISOLATED TSTM ALONG AND N OF I78
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FORMING BACKDOOR BOUNDARY.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE VALLEYS IF A LOW OVC DOESNT
DEVELOP.
AGAIN THE ELEMENTS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/26 GFS/NAM MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A RIDGE BUILDING UP ACROSS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IT WILL BE DIMINISHING
AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
TROUGH AND SFC FRONT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY AND WINDS BACK AROUND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THE
LAST OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST LATE IN THE
DAY WHILE VERY WEAK IMPULSES EJECT THROUGH ITS BASE. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR INTERIOR AREAS AND BETTER HEATING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH ONSHORE
FLOW OCCURRING.
SATURDAY - WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS RIDGING BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL HAVE
SHIFTED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION PUTTING US IN THE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME RING OF FIRE FLOW REGIME. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON SO WE CONTINUE WITH THE
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING EACH DAY AS HEIGHTS
RISE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED BACK
INTO THE REGION. THERE LOOK TO BE A COUPLE DAYS WHERE WE COULD
EXCEED 90F WITH A RETURN OF THE MUGGY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THIS AFTN...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT. NW WIND GUST 15 KT, SMALL
CHC OF A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY VCNTY KACY LATE.
TONIGHT...VFR SCT AOA 4000 FT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING IN A LIGHT NNE FLOW TOWARD 10Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - MONDAY...VFR. CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES. SEAS AOB 3 FT. WIND GUSTS AOB 15 KT. A NW FLOW THIS
MORNING MAY BECOME A SEABREEZE LATE TODAY THEN THE WIND PROBABLY
TURNS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A SORT OF BACK DOOR COOL FRONT
DEVELOPS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECTING AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND SLOWLY VEER
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL DECREASE
TO AROUND 2-3 FEET BY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF FREQUENT OR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
IS LOW TODAY BASED ON A 2 FT 5 SECOND PRIMARY SWELL AND AN
UNDERLYING 1.5 FT 11 SECOND SWELL WITH A GENERALLY NW WIND OF 10
KT. WATER TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH THERE ARE POCKETS OF
60S. BE SMART...SWIM SAFELY...AND WHERE PATROLLED BY LIFEGUARDS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RER DAILY RAINFALL FOR KTTN AND KABE YDY.
THE JUNE MONTHLY AVG TEMPERATURE FOR PHILADELPHIA APPEARS LOCKED
IN NEAR 1 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...HEAVENER/O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
CLIMATE...DRAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
942 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF THE COAST
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN NEARBY
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO
REACH OUR REGION BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN OUR REGION CONTINUED TO LIFT SLOWLY AT MID
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
VARY BETWEEN SCATTERED AND BROKEN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOME OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, SO WE WILL
KEEP THEM IN THE FORECAST.
THE SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR
TODAY. THE FLOW SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT FROM DRIFTING A FEW MILES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON
AT MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A SORT OF BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT
AS THERE ARE SIGNS IN THE MODELS FOR A NNE FLOW DEVELOPING SWD
FROM THE COAST ALONG WITH A BAND OF LOW CLOUD IN THE STILL HUMID
LEFTOVER BL RH.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A SHOWER OR ISOLATED TSTM ALONG AND N OF I78
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FORMING BACKDOOR BOUNDARY.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE VALLEYS IF A LOW OVC DOESNT
DEVELOP.
AGAIN THE ELEMENTS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/26 GFS/NAM MOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A RIDGE BUILDING UP ACROSS
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IT WILL BE DIMINISHING
AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
TROUGH AND SFC FRONT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY AND WINDS BACK AROUND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THE
LAST OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST LATE IN THE
DAY WHILE VERY WEAK IMPULSES EJECT THROUGH ITS BASE. WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR INTERIOR AREAS AND BETTER HEATING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TODAY WITH ONSHORE
FLOW OCCURRING.
SATURDAY - WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS RIDGING BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL HAVE
SHIFTED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION PUTTING US IN THE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME RING OF FIRE FLOW REGIME. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON SO WE CONTINUE WITH THE
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING EACH DAY AS HEIGHTS
RISE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED BACK
INTO THE REGION. THERE LOOK TO BE A COUPLE DAYS WHERE WE COULD
EXCEED 90F WITH A RETURN OF THE MUGGY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 15Z...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
AFTER 15Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT. NW WIND GUST 15 KT, SMALL
CHC OF A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY VCNTY KACY LATE.
TONIGHT...VFR SCT AOA 4000 FT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING IN A LIGHT NNE FLOW TOWARD 10Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - MONDAY...VFR. CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES. SEAS AOB 3 FT. WIND GUSTS AOB 15 KT. A NW FLOW THIS
MORNING MAY BECOME A SEABREEZE LATE TODAY THEN THE WIND PROBABLY
TURNS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A SORT OF BACK DOOR COOL FRONT
DEVELOPS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECTING AN ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND SLOWLY VEER
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL DECREASE
TO AROUND 2-3 FEET BY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF FREQUENT OR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
IS LOW TODAY BASED ON A 2 FT 5 SECOND PRIMARY SWELL AND AN
UNDERLYING 1.5 FT 11 SECOND SWELL WITH A GENERALLY NW WIND OF 10
KT. WATER TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH THERE ARE POCKETS OF
60S. BE SMART...SWIM SAFELY...AND WHERE PATROLLED BY LIFEGUARDS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RER DAILY RAINFALL FOR KTTN AND KABE YDY.
THE JUNE MONTHLY AVG TEMPERATURE FOR PHILADELPHIA APPEARS LOCKED
IN NEAR 1 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...HEAVENER/O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
CLIMATE...DRAG
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
921 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...
LTST SOUNDING DATA FROM TBW SHOWED MOISTURE JUST BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS (-1.6"). THE EARLY INHIBITION TO VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD BE
OVERCOME DURING AFTN DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT (NR -9C @H5)
ALONG WITH AMPLE SFC HEATING. A LOOK AT THE LTST HRRR GUID SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ROBUST BOUNDARY INITIATED CONVECTION BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ALONG THE INLAND DRIFTING ECSB THEN
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT FOCUSING INLAND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AS NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES INCLUDING THE WEST COAST BOUNDARY MERGES OVER
THE INTERIOR TOWARD DUSK. NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
TODAY-TONIGHT...(PREV DISC) SPLIT IN SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
VICINITY FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL PROVIDE A DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW. HOWEVER THIS WILL ACTUALLY ADVECT HIGHER MOISTURE THAT IS
RESIDING FROM THE GULF COAST TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER STARTING OFF NEAR 1.95 INCHES IN
THE NORTH AND THEN INCREASES MOISTURE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. 500 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST AT MINUS 8 TO 9 DEGREES AND MAX
TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER-MID 90S SO INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT. WESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD DELAY THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE...BUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON IT WILL START TO MOVE SLOWLY INLAND.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS USUALLY NOT A HIGH COVERAGE ONE BUT
PARAMETERS POINT TO A RETURN TO SCATTERED POPS. THE EXACT
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS NOT CERTAIN BUT IN GENERAL...NORTHWEST
FLOW CAN RESULT IN QUITE STRONG STORMS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL DRY AIR.
WOULD EXPECT THE EARLIEST STORMS TO GET GOING IN THE NORTH AND
MOVE/PROPAGATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING AND THE GFS
SHOWS PRECIP THROUGH 12Z FRI. THE GFS AND NAM POPS ACTUALLY
INCREASE AFTER 00Z. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH 06Z...WHICH IS LATER THAN NORMAL DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR IFR IN SCATTERED
AFTERNOON-EVENING STORMS. STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OR
GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...OFFSHORE WIND FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A SEA BREEZE
ALONG THE COAST. SEAS WILL BE RATHER FLAT AT 2 FEET OR LESS.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STORMS WITH STRONG
WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STRONG WINDS COULD
MOVE WELL OUT AWAY FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. WOULD EXPECT A
FEW SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS TO BECOME NECESSARY.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
JP/RW/AB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1045 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
Weak frontal boundary remains draped along the I-74 corridor this
morning. Widespread fog that developed along/north of the boundary
overnight has lifted into a low overcast across the far northern
KILX CWA. This cloud cover will rapidly dissipate over the next 1
to 2 hours. After that, scattered diurnal clouds will develop
toward midday through the afternoon hours, yielding a partly to
mostly sunny sky. May see a few thunderstorms around the area as
well, although areal coverage will remain quite low due to lack of
upper support. High-res models such as the HRRR and RAP focus on
the W/SW CWA this afternoon. Have therefore adjusted POPs to carry
scattered thunderstorms across the western zones and only isolated
across the east.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 702 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
Dense fog affecting areas in the vicinity of KDNV-KBMI-KPIA-KPNT
producing visibilities less than 1/4 mile while local IFR/MVFR
visibilities surround this region. Fog expected to dissipate by
around 14Z with daytime heating. With continued afternoon
heating...isolated-scattered thunderstorms expected after
21Z. Local IFR visibilities and gusty winds expected.
Overnight...decreasing thunderstorm activity is expected...and
mention of thunderstorms in area TAFs is not included as
probabilities are too low.
Onton
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 306 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
Hot, humid summertime with a weak boundary and several small waves
to help trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms periodically through
the forecast. Bringing in finesse to the forecast with the shaky
performance of the operational models is difficult at best. GFS is
already off with widespread convection over the FA, and the NAM is
doing somewhat better with a delay on the approaching wave until
later today. Increasing pops today going into the afternoon,
particularly along the boundary as it drifts very slowly with the
warming of the day, providing a weak focus for some storms.
Forecast very much a blend of different models and different runs,
with deference to a chaotic solution set in an unstable summer
airmass. Results...a lot of small pops. Best chances for precip
actually land with the next larger system that will have more of
an affect this weekend and the first half of next week. Same wave
just coming onshore this morning on the west coast and expect a
little bit more confidence to build as the system becomes better
sampled in the next couple runs.
SHORT TERM...Today and tonight...
Dense fog creeping into the NE portions of the CWA from NRN IL
as temps drop under the mostly clear skies in an area of rich llvl
moisture from yesterdays rain. Increasing chances for rain as the
next wave/and remains of overnight weakening MCS from the Plains
makes its way eastward into the Midwest. ECMWF more dominated by
subsidence and drier. Keeping the pops low and more coverage
wording today and tonight as a result. Precip lingering a bit into
the overnight in models and with continued southerly flow and that
stagnant boundary...keeping the pops for the overnight.
Temperatures similar with the recent trends.
LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...
Right now, chance PoPs remain in the forecast Friday through the
weekend, though there is doubt for Friday/Friday night and
depending on the timing and amplification of the synoptic pattern
and strength of some weak ridging at the sfc. Sunday, models are
hinting at the next major storm system spinning up as that trof
amplifies over the western half of the CONUS and goes to a
slightly negative tilt over the nrn Plains/Upper Midwest for the
end of the weekend. Models continuing to deepen the sfc low well
to the north in srn Canada. At this point, the bulk of that system
looks to be north of ILX, though cold frontal features pass
through ILX spawning storms along the way. Will probably see
continued stormy impacts for Monday/Monday night, though the
timing is changing by 12 hrs back and forth with subsequent
synoptic runs...particularly across the northern half of the
state.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1057 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS MAINTAINED THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
NEW DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST 90 MINUTES.
EXPERIMENTAL CLOUD TOP COOLING AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION PRODUCTS
POINT TO CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN IOWA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...CONVECTION OVER EASTERN IOWA WILL BE TIED
TO THE BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY RUNS FROM JUST SOUTH OF KSUX TO
KAAA. AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ACHIEVE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN THE 17Z-18Z TIME FRAME.
THE LAKE INDUCED STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONCE SKIES CLEAR THERE
SHOULD BE A QUICK JUMP IN TEMPERATURES OF 5-10 DEGREES IN ABOUT AN
HOUR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
UPDATED FCST FOR STRATUS AND FOG AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS. LEADING EDGE OF
STRATUS NEAR DUBUQUE TO QUAD CITIES LINE AND MAY MOVE A LITTLE
MORE WESTWARD OVER NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE PUTTING ON THE BRAKES AS
SUN CONTINUES TO RISE. ADDED MENTION OF DENSE FOG WITH THE STRATUS
BASED ON OBS. WILL NOT ADJUST HIGH TEMPS ATTIM BUT MAY HAVE TO
LOWER A BIT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RVR NOW THAT THE STRATUS HAS MOVED
IN. FRESHENED UP POPS WITH SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG HWY
20 CORRIDOR INTO NW IL... OTHERWISE DRY TO START REST OF CWA.
BATCH OF CONVECTION IN CENTRAL IA SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD PORTIONS
OF WESTERN CWA AND SHOULD MOVE IN AREAS WEST OF CEDAR RAPIDS TO
WASHINGTON LINE A BIT LATER THIS AM...BARRING ANY DEVELOPMENT OUT
AHEAD.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO SOUTHWEST CWA AT 07Z AND EXTENDS
ROUGHLY FROM JUST NORTH OF A RAPID CITY SD TO DES MOINES IA... TO
INDIANAPOLIS IN. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS AM SHOWS
CONVECTION FOCUSED MOSTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
WHERE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE AXIS ARE ALIGNED.
WEAK PERTURBATION MOVING EAST FROM NE AND ATTENDANT WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION AIDING WING OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM
PORTIONS OF SW-CNTRL-NE IA. LAKE ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW POST
FRONTAL AIDING LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LEADING EDGE
ROUGHLY ON A LINE FROM MINERAL POINT WI TO STERLING/ROCK FALLS
IL... TO PRINCETON IL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO NOT MOVE MUCH NEXT 24 HOURS AND REMAIN
IN VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST CWA. WEAK PERTURBATION(S) AND ATTENDANT
SUBTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION IN COMBINATION WITH FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TDY... ALBEIT
STILL LARGELY UNORGANIZED AND GENERALLY SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH SOME
SUGGESTION THAT BEST COVERAGE MAY BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. SOME
DIMINISHING OF PCPN ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNSET BUT MAY SEE REDEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED ACTIVITY LATE EVE/OVRNGT WITH SECONDARY BRANCH OF LOW LEVEL
JET AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MO
RVR VLY.
STRATUS LOOKS TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MAKING INROADS INTO EASTERN CWA
EARLY THIS AM... BUT SUNRISE WILL BRING MOVEMENT TO HALT AND HRRR AND
RAP SUGGEST FINAL RESTING SPOT FOR STRATUS WILL BE ROUGHLY NEAR LINE
FROM KDBQ TO EAST OF KMLI. STRATUS SHOULD LIFT INTO EXTENSIVE CU
FIELD AND WILL AID IN LIMITING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80F NORTHEAST CWA. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY PTSUNNY OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 60S SW CWA WITH
PTCLDY SKIES OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
INCREASE IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING AS MODELS BEGIN TO
CONGEAL ON THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION.
SPECIFICALLY...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM AREA ALL REMARKABLY IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWFA MONDAY. THUS
SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE AND WILL STICK WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND WITH
MORE CONFIDENCE THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
FRIDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A WIDE OPEN GULF
SUPPORT WARM...BREEZY...AND HUMID. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS SURFACE DEW POINTS APPROACH 70 DEGREES
AND A WEAK WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GFS IS
SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...LOOKING OVERDONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS
WAVE. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS DO SHOW SOME REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE
...AND WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMING DO THINK THERE WILL
BE SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LACK
OF STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE FOR FRIDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH MORE UPPER SUPPORT AS THE
WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY.
BY SUNDAY WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A FEW ROUNDS OF MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS IA. TIMING
OF THE FROPA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WOULD LEND ITSELF TO INCREASED
RISK OF SEVERE WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND THIS BEARS WATCH.
QUIETER FOR MID WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO SETTLE IN.
DMD
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT KDBQ AND KMLI
WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AM THROUGH MIDDAY.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVING EAST FROM CENTRAL IA
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING
AFTERNOON HEATING. HAVE COVERED WITH VCTS WORDING AT MOST SITES
FROM LATE AM THROUGH AFTN AND WILL AMEND IF IT LOOKS LIKE A TAF
SITE WILL BE IMPACTED. CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY IFR TO MVFR IN
THE STORMS. DECREASE IN PCPN EXPECTED WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF
HEATING... BEFORE MORE ISOLD TO SCTD REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL JET. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
FOR MENTION THOUGH ATTIM. WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH
MAY SEE SOME FOG WITH VSBYS 2-5SM ESPECIALLY AT ANY SITE THAT SEES
RAIN DURING THE DAY TDY... THUS SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR LATER FCSTS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...DMD
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
705 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
UPDATED FCST FOR STRATUS AND FOG AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS. LEADING EDGE OF
STRATUS NEAR DUBUQUE TO QUAD CITIES LINE AND MAY MOVE A LITTLE
MORE WESTWARD OVER NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE PUTTING ON THE BRAKES AS
SUN CONTINUES TO RISE. ADDED MENTION OF DENSE FOG WITH THE STRATUS
BASED ON OBS. WILL NOT ADJUST HIGH TEMPS ATTIM BUT MAY HAVE TO
LOWER A BIT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RVR NOW THAT THE STRATUS HAS MOVED
IN. FRESHENED UP POPS WITH SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG HWY
20 CORRIDOR INTO NW IL... OTHERWISE DRY TO START REST OF CWA.
BATCH OF CONVECTION IN CENTRAL IA SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD PORTIONS
OF WESTERN CWA AND SHOULD MOVE IN AREAS WEST OF CEDAR RAPIDS TO
WASHINGTON LINE A BIT LATER THIS AM...BARRING ANY DEVELOPMENT OUT
AHEAD.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO SOUTHWEST CWA AT 07Z AND EXTENDS
ROUGHLY FROM JUST NORTH OF A RAPID CITY SD TO DES MOINES IA... TO
INDIANAPOLIS IN. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS AM SHOWS
CONVECTION FOCUSED MOSTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
WHERE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE AXIS ARE ALIGNED.
WEAK PERTURBATION MOVING EAST FROM NE AND ATTENDANT WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION AIDING WING OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM
PORTIONS OF SW-CNTRL-NE IA. LAKE ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW POST
FRONTAL AIDING LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LEADING EDGE
ROUGHLY ON A LINE FROM MINERAL POINT WI TO STERLING/ROCK FALLS
IL... TO PRINCETON IL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO NOT MOVE MUCH NEXT 24 HOURS AND REMAIN
IN VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST CWA. WEAK PERTURBATION(S) AND ATTENDANT
SUBTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION IN COMBINATION WITH FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TDY... ALBEIT
STILL LARGELY UNORGANIZED AND GENERALLY SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH SOME
SUGGESTION THAT BEST COVERAGE MAY BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. SOME
DIMINISHING OF PCPN ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNSET BUT MAY SEE REDEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED ACTIVITY LATE EVE/OVRNGT WITH SECONDARY BRANCH OF LOW LEVEL
JET AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MO
RVR VLY.
STRATUS LOOKS TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MAKING INROADS INTO EASTERN CWA
EARLY THIS AM... BUT SUNRISE WILL BRING MOVEMENT TO HALT AND HRRR AND
RAP SUGGEST FINAL RESTING SPOT FOR STRATUS WILL BE ROUGHLY NEAR LINE
FROM KDBQ TO EAST OF KMLI. STRATUS SHOULD LIFT INTO EXTENSIVE CU
FIELD AND WILL AID IN LIMITING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80F NORTHEAST CWA. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY PTSUNNY OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 60S SW CWA WITH
PTCLDY SKIES OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
INCREASE IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING AS MODELS BEGIN TO
CONGEAL ON THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION.
SPECIFICALLY...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM AREA ALL REMARKABLY IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWFA MONDAY. THUS
SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE AND WILL STICK WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND WITH
MORE CONFIDENCE THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
FRIDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A WIDE OPEN GULF
SUPPORT WARM...BREEZY...AND HUMID. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS SURFACE DEW POINTS APPROACH 70 DEGREES
AND A WEAK WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GFS IS
SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...LOOKING OVERDONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS
WAVE. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS DO SHOW SOME REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE
...AND WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMING DO THINK THERE WILL
BE SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LACK
OF STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE FOR FRIDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH MORE UPPER SUPPORT AS THE
WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY.
BY SUNDAY WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A FEW ROUNDS OF MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS IA. TIMING
OF THE FROPA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WOULD LEND ITSELF TO INCREASED
RISK OF SEVERE WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND THIS BEARS WATCH.
QUIETER FOR MID WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO SETTLE IN.
DMD
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT KDBQ AND KMLI
WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE AM THROUGH MIDDAY.
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVING EAST FROM CENTRAL IA
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING
AFTERNOON HEATING. HAVE COVERED WITH VCTS WORDING AT MOST SITES
FROM LATE AM THROUGH AFTN AND WILL AMEND IF IT LOOKS LIKE A TAF
SITE WILL BE IMPACTED. CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY IFR TO MVFR IN
THE STORMS. DECREASE IN PCPN EXPECTED WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF
HEATING... BEFORE MORE ISOLD TO SCTD REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL JET. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
FOR MENTION THOUGH ATTIM. WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT ALTHOUGH
MAY SEE SOME FOG WITH VSBYS 2-5SM ESPECIALLY AT ANY SITE THAT SEES
RAIN DURING THE DAY TDY... THUS SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR LATER FCSTS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...DMD
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
543 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
UPDATED FCST FOR STRATUS AND FOG AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS. LEADING EDGE OF
STRATUS NEAR DUBUQUE TO QUAD CITIES LINE AND MAY MOVE A LITTLE
MORE WESTWARD OVER NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE PUTTING ON THE BRAKES AS
SUN CONTINUES TO RISE. ADDED MENTION OF DENSE FOG WITH THE STRATUS
BASED ON OBS. WILL NOT ADJUST HIGH TEMPS ATTIM BUT MAY HAVE TO
LOWER A BIT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RVR NOW THAT THE STRATUS HAS MOVED
IN. FRESHENED UP POPS WITH SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG HWY
20 CORRIDOR INTO NW IL... OTHERWISE DRY TO START REST OF CWA.
BATCH OF CONVECTION IN CENTRAL IA SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD PORTIONS
OF WESTERN CWA AND SHOULD MOVE IN AREAS WEST OF CEDAR RAPIDS TO
WASHINGTON LINE A BIT LATER THIS AM...BARRING ANY DEVELOPMENT OUT
AHEAD.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO SOUTHWEST CWA AT 07Z AND EXTENDS
ROUGHLY FROM JUST NORTH OF A RAPID CITY SD TO DES MOINES IA... TO
INDIANAPOLIS IN. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS AM SHOWS
CONVECTION FOCUSED MOSTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
WHERE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE AXIS ARE ALIGNED.
WEAK PERTURBATION MOVING EAST FROM NE AND ATTENDANT WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION AIDING WING OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM
PORTIONS OF SW-CNTRL-NE IA. LAKE ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW POST
FRONTAL AIDING LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LEADING EDGE
ROUGHLY ON A LINE FROM MINERAL POINT WI TO STERLING/ROCK FALLS
IL... TO PRINCETON IL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO NOT MOVE MUCH NEXT 24 HOURS AND REMAIN
IN VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST CWA. WEAK PERTURBATION(S) AND ATTENDANT
SUBTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION IN COMBINATION WITH FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TDY... ALBEIT
STILL LARGELY UNORGANIZED AND GENERALLY SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH SOME
SUGGESTION THAT BEST COVERAGE MAY BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. SOME
DIMINISHING OF PCPN ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNSET BUT MAY SEE REDEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED ACTIVITY LATE EVE/OVRNGT WITH SECONDARY BRANCH OF LOW LEVEL
JET AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MO
RVR VLY.
STRATUS LOOKS TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MAKING INROADS INTO EASTERN CWA
EARLY THIS AM... BUT SUNRISE WILL BRING MOVEMENT TO HALT AND HRRR AND
RAP SUGGEST FINAL RESTING SPOT FOR STRATUS WILL BE ROUGHLY NEAR LINE
FROM KDBQ TO EAST OF KMLI. STRATUS SHOULD LIFT INTO EXTENSIVE CU
FIELD AND WILL AID IN LIMITING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80F NORTHEAST CWA. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY PTSUNNY OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 60S SW CWA WITH
PTCLDY SKIES OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
INCREASE IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING AS MODELS BEGIN TO
CONGEAL ON THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION.
SPECIFICALLY...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM AREA ALL REMARKABLY IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWFA MONDAY. THUS
SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE AND WILL STICK WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND WITH
MORE CONFIDENCE THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
FRIDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A WIDE OPEN GULF
SUPPORT WARM...BREEZY...AND HUMID. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS SURFACE DEW POINTS APPROACH 70 DEGREES
AND A WEAK WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GFS IS
SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...LOOKING OVERDONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS
WAVE. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS DO SHOW SOME REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE
...AND WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMING DO THINK THERE WILL
BE SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LACK
OF STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE FOR FRIDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH MORE UPPER SUPPORT AS THE
WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY.
BY SUNDAY WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A FEW ROUNDS OF MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS IA. TIMING
OF THE FROPA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WOULD LEND ITSELF TO INCREASED
RISK OF SEVERE WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND THIS BEARS WATCH.
QUIETER FOR MID WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO SETTLE IN.
DMD
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN EASTERN IA.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE. A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY MOVING WEST FROM LAKE MI MAY
REACH THE MS RIVER AND THE DBQ AND MLI TERMINALS AROUND OR WITHIN
OR A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG AND
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL REACH DBQ AND A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS IS BROUGHT IN AT 12Z WITH POTENTIAL IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE OF THIS
BOUNDARY HAVING AN IMPACT IS TOO LOW TO GO BEYOND A PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN THE MORNING. THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH MAY
TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH ARE
MENTIONED IN PROB30 GROUPS COVERING THE MORE FAVORABLE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...DMD
AVIATION...SHEETS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
700 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
Enhanced PoP values were included across the highway 283 corridor
and eastward very early this morning as strong cape and weak shear
pulse type thunderstorms may continue to be forced along gusty
outflow winds from north central Kansas into central Kansas. The low
level jet was very weak judging by local RAP soundings. With this in
mind the PoPs will continue to be lowered in the far western
sections of the forecast area in the nowcast timeframe.
Later today and tonight brings yet a better overall chance for a few
severe storms with hail and damaging wind the primary threat through
the evening hours. By Friday a synoptic scale wave from the west
crosses the Rockies onto the High Plains region in an equally or
more unstable airmass than previous days. Much of western Kansas
appears in the warm sector for this event, but a warm front appears
to be a focus for all severe weather modes farther north (mainly
north of Interstate 70). Surface based thunderstorms should develop
in vicinity of the surface low/dryline with a few supercells
starting the beginning of a busy severe weather episode through the
evening on Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
Remnants of the upper wave may still be moving out of the area on
Saturday, with a conditionally unstable airmass still in place.
Regeneration of convection cold easily occur on outflow boundaries
anytime during the day, but most likely over central KS, as the
pattern supports north winds in the far west. At the same time, the
wave could move through faster, clearing the area of any significant
widespread severe threat. By late in the weekend, the upper pattern
will evolve such that the westerly jet will drift into the northern
tier of states with a closed attendant low developing over central
Canadian provinces. The westerly height gradient will support lee
troughing and moderate southerly winds over western Kansas Sunday
and Sunday night. Thunderstorms could be possible again buy Sunday
afternoon if the surface front modeled by the EC/GFS is able to move
through the areas earlier than forecast. However in absence of any
convective rain cooled air, temperatures will continue on the
warming trend through the weekend with only the relative greenness
form recent rains to keep temperatures from soaring to 100 or more
degrees by Sunday.
During the Monday through Wednesday time period, a strong upper
level low pressure system over southern Canada will move into the
eastern Canadian provinces while a high pressure ridge moves into
western North America. The GFS and ECMWF show a a dry cold frontal
passage across western Kansas during the day Monday. By Monday
evening the front stalls out over northern Oklahoma which looks
reasonable given the upper ridge over the northern and central
Rockies and northwesterly flow aloft into the northern and central
Plains. The models show precipitation developing Monday night as
southerly flow at 850 millibars increases across the southern into
the central Plains and isentropic lift develops over the frontal
boundary. This pattern should continue into the middle part of the
week and provide additional chances for MCS development off the
eastern slopes of the Rockies into western Kansas. Later in the
week, the models show the upper ridge building eastward into the
central part of North America which should bring drier conditions
along with warmer temperatures to western Kansas for the 4th of July
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
VFR ceilings can be expected at Garden City, Dodge City and Hays
through at least early afternoon. MVFR to occasional IFR cigs will
be possible and will be included in TEMPO groups during much of
the morning. Scattered thunderstorms will continue from around
Dodge City through Hays until around 15z before diminishing. MVFR
ceilings may linger in the Hays area into this afternoon. Widely
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop again late this
afternoon and evening across the central High Plains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 90 67 92 71 / 10 30 10 30
GCK 92 67 93 70 / 10 20 20 30
EHA 94 66 94 68 / 20 30 10 20
LBL 94 68 96 71 / 10 20 10 20
HYS 90 68 91 73 / 50 30 20 60
P28 90 68 92 75 / 20 30 10 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard/Russell
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
523 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2014
AS OF 230 AM CDT...130 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 REMAINING IN THE LOW 70S. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. BASED ON WSR-88D RADAR DATA...THERE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
AREA...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE FED A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. A MESO-LOW WAS ALSO INDICATED...CENTERED BETWEEN MCCOOK
NEBRASKA AND OBERLIN KANSAS...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 20 MPH. A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OUR MAIN WEATHER
MAKER...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.
FOR TODAY...YET ANOTHER MESSY CONVECTIVE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. MORNING CONVECTION MAY STILL BE
ONGOING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEFORE ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
HEADS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION. A COOLER... STABLE AIRMASS IS
ANTICIPATED AS A RESULT OF THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. THEREFORE...
BELIEVE THAT OUR AREA SHOULD BE DEVOID OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. LATEST SIGNALS FROM THE HRRR MODEL...ONE
THAT HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...INDICATES THIS TREND SO HAVE WEIGHTED TODAYS FORECAST HEAVILY
TOWARDS THE HRRR. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY DOWN COMPARED
TO FORECAST GUIDANCE AND MAY NEED TO LOWER SOME MORE DEEPENING ON
REMAINING CLOUD COVER. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
A LEE TROUGH FORMS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AIRMASS
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVER EAST COLORADO AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. YET ANOTHER WEAKER...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
OVERALL...TRENDED POPS LOWER FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
BASED ON THE IDEA A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL PLAGUE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...UP TO 60 KTS POSSIBLE...DEVELOPS.
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.
FOR TOMORROW...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MUCH LARGER SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT...POSSIBLY AN OUTBREAK. THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA. A DRYLINE SHOULD SETUP...
INITIALLY ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER BEFORE SLIDING SLIGHTLY
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS WITH RECENT DRYLINE EVENTS...
BELIEVE THAT A FEW MODELS ARE PULLING THE DRYLINE TOO FAR EAST TOO
QUICKLY. INSTEAD...DRYLINE SHOULD BE HELD FURTHER WEST BY A LEE
TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OVER. HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLOWER NAM AND ECMWF WITH DRYLINE
POSITIONING. BY AFTERNOON...A CAP SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY SUPPRESSED
UNTIL 21Z...AROUND 3 PM MDT. AS THIS HAPPENS... INSTABILITY BUILDS
UP AND LEADS TO EXPLOSIVE STORM GROWTH. SBCAPE OF 3000+ J/KG AND
850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM...0-6KM BULK SHEAR UP TO 50 KTS
AND 0-3 KM HELICITY OF 100-250 M2/S2 INDICATE THAT ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE. SOME LARGE HAIL MAY BE SIGNIFICANT...
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF A BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE.
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...QUITE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN. A
COLD FRONT IS FORCED DOWN BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY IN ADDITION TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A FEW STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTON
AND GRAHAM COUNTIES DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2014
THE EXTENDED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND AN
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH FLOW BECOMING
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED. SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT AND WILL RESULT IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ON MONDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY ALONG WITH MONDAY AS NO
STRONG SIGNALS ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE REALLY COME TOGETHER FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
SETS UP OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS STILL NOT
VERY HIGH DUE TO TIMING OF DISTURBANCES AND GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND SURFACE FEATURES...SO WOULD EXPECT CHANGES
AS EACH DAY APPROACHES THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S AND WILL COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MAJORITY OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
STORMS HAVE CLEARED THE AREA WITH ONLY DENSE ANVIL CIRRUS
REMAINING. CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS
MORNING. SOUTH WINDS STRENGTHEN AND BECOME GUSTY AS A LEE TROUGH
DEEPENS TO THE WEST. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. WITH A COOLER...MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE DUE TO
THIS MORNINGS STORMS...THINKING THAT STORMS WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD. THEREFORE...CONTINUED THE MENTION A PROB30 -TSRA
GROUP. HOWEVER...DID MOVE IT BACK A COUPLE HOURS AS IT MAY TAKE A
WHILE FOR STORMS TO MOVE IN FROM COLORADO ONCE AGAIN. SOME STRATUS
MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING EAST OF A DRYLINE. THE STRATUS COULD
REACH KMCK SO PLACED A SCT010 GROUP INTO TAF.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...ALW
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
659 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL BUT KAEX WHERE IFR IS
CURRENTLY REPORTED. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STABILIZED AIRMASS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING...HELD OFF MENTIONING THUNDER UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAIN...THIS MESHES WELL
WITH 4KM SPC WRF AND LATEST HRRR RUNS. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
DURING THE OVERNIGHT ONCE THIS CONVECTION COMES TO AN END.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WV IMAGERY/UA ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE ERN GULF AND ANOTHER TO THE
WEST OFF THE BAJA COAST...WITH ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE ACRS PORTIONS
OF THE WRN GULF. KLCH RADAR A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT...BUT STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACRS CNTL/WRN LA AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE TO THE SW.
MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE WEST ACRS THE NRN GULF
KEEPING LT SELY WINDS OVER THE REGION.
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WET DAY ON TAP AS THE PERSISTENT WEAKNESS/TROF ALOFT REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE FUNNELED OVER THE
REGION BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE ERN GULF AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROF. PRECIP WATER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV 2
INCHES. THE ACTIVITY TO THE SW WILL SPREAD NE THIS
MORNING...REACHING OUR AREA BY EARLY TO MID MORNING. AS DAYTIME
HEATING INTERACTS WITH THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD BY AFTN. AGAIN
ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS WELL. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LESS THAN TODAY AND YESTERDAY AS THE TROF
ALOFT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
WEAKENING TROF/SHEAR AXIS LIFTS NORTH AND UPPER RIDGING BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED ACRS THE AREA. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION AS IT MOVES WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...LIMITING ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIMIT ANY
WARMUP TODAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE 80S.
A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER TROF WEAKENS AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BEGINS TO DECREASE. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SUN WILL BRING AFTN
HIGHS BACK TO NEAR OR ABV NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
(OR POSSIBLY MIDDLE) 90S.
MARINE...
SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES OVER THE
ERN GULF CONTINUES TO RIDGE WEST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. LOW
PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE WRN ZONES TONIGHT (AND ARE HEADLINED IN THE CWF PRODUCT).
SCEC SHOULD GRADUALLY EXTEND EAST THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH MARGINAL
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 86 75 87 76 / 80 40 60 30
KBPT 87 76 88 77 / 80 40 60 30
KAEX 84 73 87 73 / 80 40 60 20
KLFT 86 75 87 76 / 80 40 50 30
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND
TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...24
AVIATION...13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
759 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS MID-UPR LVL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS TO GENERALLY STAY WEST OF
THE CWA TODAY. STRATOCU DECK AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS
KEPT MIN TEMPS A BIT WARMER (UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S) OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS OVER THE WEST HALF ARE A
BIT COOLER (LOWER 40S) UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH KENTON EVEN REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 30S.
TODAY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
FCST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRES
RIDGE ALONG WITH DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW STRATOCU DECK TO ERODE
OVER EAST HALF BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT WITH LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND
LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO GENERALLY REACH THE MID 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WITH COOLER 60S READINGS NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES SHORELINES.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST LATER TONIGHT
ALLOWING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES A BIT HIGHER THAN
THIS MORNING/S READINGS DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW OF THE
TYPICAL INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL COLD SPOTS COULD REACH INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE LOWER 50S
MIN TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR WEST NEAR IRONWOOD...WHERE
DOWNSLOPING SRLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATE SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THERE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
FRI...A TROUGH MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE PLAINS AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN SW MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TOWARD UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR MAY SLOW THE PROGRESS
OF ANY SHOWERS INTO THE AREA WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT
PATTERN. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO EDGE TOWARD THE WEST BY LATE
FRI FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. THE GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BUT IF A WEAK
SHRTWV MOVES INTO THE AREA SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THE KEWEENAW OR FAR WEST. HOWEVER...ONLY LOW END
CHANCE EXPECTED...PER MDLS CONSENSUS.
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AS THE WRN TROUGH EDGES FARTHER TO THE EAST AND
STRENGTHENING MOISTURE ADVECTION BOOSTS INSTABILITY OVER THE
AREA...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST HALF BUT REMAIN
HIGHER TO THE WEST OF UPPER MI. THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHRTWVS BRUSHING THE
AREA IN THE SSW FLOW COULD SET OFF A FEW ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
THE REGION...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF UPPER MI...BUT WITH TIMING/POSITION
REMAINING UNCERTAIN JUSTIFYING CONTINUED CHANCE POPS. OVERALL MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO DELAY THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE PCPN.
SUN INTO MON...EXPECT HIGHER PCPN CHANCES AS MODELS HINT AT A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHRTWVS AFFECTING THE AREA AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE NRN LAKES. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS
ALSO EXPECTED WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AOA 40 KNOTS AND ML/MU CAPE
VALUES AOA 1500 J/KG.
TUE...LOW LEVEL CYCLCONIC FLOW AND SHRTWVS ON THE SRN SIDE OF THE
MID LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL KEEP POTENTIAL FOR SCT
-SHRA GOING. COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY WED WITH
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 757 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
MVFR CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO KIWD AND KSAW BUT EXPECT THESE TO LIFT BY
LATE MORNING WITH DIURNAL MIXING AND VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS WITH DIRECTION INFLUENCED
BY LAKE BREEZES. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...LESS THAN 25 KTS. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE AREA...YET WIND SPEEDS WILL
STILL REMAIN 25 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
540 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS DEAL WITH ONSET OF ANY TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY
AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS
AFTN/OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY... FOG/STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN DEVELOPING
ACROSS WESTERN WI OVER THE PAST HR OR TWO BASED ON THE LATEST
VIS/FOG IMAGERY. LATEST HOPWRF HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SPREAD OF
THE LOWER CLDS/FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR EC MN/WC WI WHICH CURRENTLY
SEEMS REASONABLE THRU 15Z. ELSEWHERE...ONLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THRU NOON.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SHIFT TO THE SE AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS SAID BEFORE...MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING AS MLCAPES
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ARND 1000 J/KG BY NOON. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST RAP HAS TRENDED WITH DRIER AIR MIXING IN THE LOWEST 1 KM
DEVELOPING BY NOON. THIS WILL ALLOW MLCAPE VALUES TO HOLD OR EVEN
FALL DURING THE AFTN. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A CAP...SO
DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS/TCU/CBS ARE LIKELY. BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS
ONLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH/SW OF THE MN RIVER
VALLEY. NORTH AND NE OF THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT...ONLY FAIR WX
CUMULUS IS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE OR NO CHC OF PRECIPITATION. IN
ADDITION...IT SEEMS THAT ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER AIR SUPPORT/SFC FEATURES OR
LLJ. THE BEST CHC/S DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WC/SW MN AS THE THETA-E RIDGE
MOVES CLOSER TO THE MN/SD/ND BORDER AND THE INCREASE IN THE LLJ
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH 80S
LIKELY...ONLY CONCERN IS HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BLOCKING FULL
ISOLATION. TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE MUCH MORE HUMID WITH DEW PTS
RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...SO TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
MUCH OF THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FROM NEAR THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDERS WESTWARD ON FRIDAY. A MERIDIONAL FLOW WITH STRONG RIDGING
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD SUPPRESS MUCH ACTIVITY FOR THE DAY A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN AND +25C 925 TEMPS SHOULD FACILITATE HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK CAPPING...ALMOST
SUSPICIOUSLY WEAK...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY
A FEW ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOP DURING THE STRONG HEATING AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY OF THE AFTERNOON. BY EVENING...THE LLJ WILL
STRENGTHEN AND VEER EASTWARD SPREADING THE ACTIVITY FROM THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE DAKOTAS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. SOME
WANING OF THIS ACTIVITY IS INDICATED BY MOST MODELS...SO KEPT POPS
LOW ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.
THE TROUGH WILL INCH EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY WITH VERY MOIST PWATS AND THE STRONGEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING IT. PWATS WILL BE BETWEEN 2 AND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. A DEEP WARM LAYER WITH FREEZING
LEVELS OF 13KFT ARE EXPECTED. BUFKIT MBE VELOCITIES LESS THAN 5 KTS
ARE TROUBLE FOR NEARLY STATIONARY OR BACK BUILDING THUNDERSTORMS. GFS
AND NAM DIFFER A BIT ON MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE NAM HAS A MUCH
MORE EFFICIENT AND MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING WHILE THE GFS IS
STEEPER IN THE MID LEVELS AND LOOKS MORE CONVECTIVE. IT IS
POSSIBLE THE NAM IS CONTAMINATED BY ONGOING PRECIP AND APPEARS
MORE EFFICIENT THAN IT SHOULD BE. THEREFORE...SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE BUT THE WRITING ON THE WALL IS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD
BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL WITHIN THE
TROUGH BY AFTERNOON...AND INCHED THE POPS EASTWARD WITH THE TROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EMERGES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND JET EASTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LARGE CYCLONE PARKED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FALLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ATOP A HOT AND
HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS /HIGHS 85-90F AND DEW POINTS 65-70F/
WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3000
J/KG. AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES DURING PEAK
HEATING...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER MINNESOTA
AND PERSIST WELL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OVER IOWA AND WISCONSIN.
STRENGTHENING 500 MB WINDS WITH SPEED MAXES OF 70-80 KT SUNDAY
EVENING AND A LOOPING HODOGRAPH THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BRING
SUPERCELLS INITIALLY CAPABLE OF ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING TORNADOES...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY A
WIND DAMAGE/LARGE HAIL THREAT AS WINDS BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL
DURING THE LATE EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE BEST CHANCES
OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY HAS SEEN SO FAR THIS
YEAR.
THE SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY ACROSS WISCONSIN
BEFORE THE DRY SLOT PUSHES IN BY LATE MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE PLEASANT...ALBEIT BREEZY.
FOR MIDWEEK...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE BREEZY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AS THE CORE OF THE COLD MID LEVEL AIR ARRIVES. RIDGING
WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS FOR LATE WEEK WITH MODELS SHOWING A
WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPED ACROSS WC WI PRIOR TO 3 AM WHICH HAS MOVED
INTO PORTIONS OF EC MN. THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM
AS THE FOG/STRATUS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON UNTIL 14-15Z FROM KRNH TO
KEAU. IT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO KSTC...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
OTHER THAN SCT008. ELSEWHERE...VFR IS EXPECTED THRU 18Z. THE NEXT
CONCERN IS SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL THIS AFTN AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.
BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS TRENDS HAVE CONTINUED WITH
ONLY -SHRA/VCTS AT KAXN/KRWF AS THESE SITES WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
GREATER INSTABILITY AXIS AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE
DECAYING COMPLEX IN THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND INCREASE TO ARND 12-14 KTS AND GUSTY BY AFTN.
BETTER POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA OCCUR AFT THIS TAF
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN WC MN.
KMSP...
FOG/STRATUS ACROSS WC WI IS EXPECTED TO STAY OUT OF THE AIRPORT
TERMINAL AREA...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SCT/FEW005 AND SCT012 BY 14Z.
5K CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTN AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA. VSCH/VCTS A CONCERN DURING THE AFTN...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON COVERAGE BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
OUTLOOK. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR THE
AFTN UPDATES. WINDS WILL BECOME SE BY 14-15Z AND BEGIN TO INCREASE
BY NOON. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI AFTN/EVE. MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN TSRA. SSE WINDS 10 KTS.
SAT...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
WINDS SSW 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
628 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
VW IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING FEATURE OF INTEREST...PAC NW
SHORTWAVE...APPROACHING THE COASTLINE WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW PRETTY
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NW TROF
WILL BECOME NEG TILT WITH 70M HGT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT.
REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR INDICATING A LINE OF EWD BOUND CONVECTION OVER
THE CNTRL DAKOTAS WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NW KS ALSO
PUSHING EAST. ACTIVITY OCCURRING ALONG INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
AXIS/BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADV. LATEST HRRR SHOWS LINE OF CONVECTION
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THRU 12Z THIS MORNING.
ON THE WHOLE...NAM/GFS/ECM QPF PRODUCTS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE
BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR 36HRS AND OUT...MAKING POP PLACEMENT QUITE
PROBLEMATIC. HOWEVER...THE HRRR AS WELL AS ARW/NMM SEEM TO HAVE
PERFORMED RATHER WELL. GIVEN THAT...WILL FOLLOW THE LATTER FOR HOW
MORNING CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE. ALL THREE PROG GRADUAL DISSIPATION THRU
12Z AS IT APPROACHES THE WRN CWA.
LATER THIS MORNING...BOTH ARW/NMM SHOW AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NE
NEB EXPANDING SWD DURING THE AFTN HOURS...THEN INTO WRN IA THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL PCPN ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE THEN REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS AREA OF FORCING IS MAINTAINED
VIA MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT/BNDRY LYR THETA-E CONVG/MODERATE
DIFFERENTIAL DIVG. AND WITH GULF REMAINING OPEN...PROLONGED MOISTURE
ADVECTION SHOULD ENSURE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL
REMAIN MOISTURE RICH.
AS FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL...GFS AND ECM ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT BRUNT OF INSTABILITY/DEEP LYR SHEAR WILL BE FOUND JUST
WEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN AS WELL AS FRIDAY AFT. SATURDAY THOUGH
LOOKS BETTER FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE ACTIVITY WHEN BUOYANCY/SHEAR
SHIFTS EWD TWD THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
PCPN CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PDS SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING LOOKING PARTICULARLY INTERESTING WRT
POSSIBLE SEVERE WX OUTBREAK. BOTH GFS/ECM SHOW 850MB FRONT LIFTING
ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR WITH MOISTURE
RICH ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR THOUGH MAY BE
LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS DEEP CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO BE
SITUATED IN CNTRL CANADA AT THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
MOISTURE WILL CONT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY.
ALTHOUGH AN ISO SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING YET...A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR ISO TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTN AT KOMA/KLNK WHERE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A
BIT BETTER. WE SHOULD SEE A NULL IN ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVNG AS
AFTN SHOWERS WEAKEN BEFORE MORE ACTIVITY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WE WILL NOT INCLUDE
THIS SECOND CHANCE ATTM. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH SOME
GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KLNK/KOFK THIS AFTN.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1026 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
BIG QUESTION THIS TIME OF YEAR AND IN THIS SITUATION REVOLVE
AROUND CONVECTIVE CHANGES/TIMING. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WAS
QUITE STRONG THIS MORNING ERN SD INTO SE ND HELPING TO KEEP THE
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS GOING. NOW STARTING TOO SEE MORE
DIURNAL MIDDAY WEAKENING BUT STILL EXPECT THAT CLUSTER TO LINGER
FOR A WHILE BUT RAINFALL RATES DIMINISHING. FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
LISBON-GWINNER AREA WILL CONTINUE. RADAR SHOWS 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN.
NO CONFIRMATION OF THAT...NEAREST SITE IS NDAWN STATION 2 W LISBON
WITH NEARLY 2 INCHES SO FAR. FOR REST OF THE AREA A FEW LIGHTER
SHOWERS THAT MOVED THRU NRN VALLEY INTO NW MN AND DRYING UP.
NOTHING IN DVL BASIN OR CNTRL ND. OVERALL THINK NOT MUCH HAPPENING
REST OF TODAY OUTSIDE OF LINGERING AREA OF SHOWERS IN SE ND MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP IN HIGHER INSTABILITY
AND DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN EASTERN MONTANA AND MOVE NORTHEAST-EAST
INTO WRN DAKOTAS THIS EVE AND THEN SPREAD EAST. THIS FOLLOWS SPC
DAY1 THINKING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE THE FORECAST
HEADACHE...PARTICULARLY TIMING AND STRENGTH.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE PLAINS AS THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS ONTO THE WEST COAST. ONE LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN
SETTING OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL ND THAT ARE JUST
STARTING TO MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. WITH GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE CWA AS 850MB JET OF AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS MOVES
EAST...THINK THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY DECENT HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT CONVECTION...SO FOLLOWED TREND OF THAT MODEL WITH HIGH
POPS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CWA DURING THE MORNING. WITH A WARMER
AIR MASS MOVING IN...THINK WE WILL STILL BE ABLE TO GET INTO THE
70S EVEN WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON
EXACTLY HOW MUCH DEBRIS FROM THIS MORNING AFFECTS DESTABILIZATION.
THE NAM HAS 3000 J/KG OF CAPE BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS UNDERDONE
ON THE CURRENT PRECIP WE HAVE OVER OUR SOUTH. MORE REASONABLE IS
THE RAP WHICH BRINGS SOME 1000-1500 J/KG INTO OUR SOUTHWEST FOR
THIS EVENING. THINK THAT SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY...BUT THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND AFTERNOON. OF GREATER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN
AS THE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MOVES INTO OUR
AREA TONIGHT. WITH MULTIPLE PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL ISSUE AN ESF BUT STILL TOO UNCERTAIN FOR ANY KIND OF
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. THE SFC TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A LOT OF MOISTURE COMING
INTO OUR CWA. TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE THE PROBLEM...AS THERE
COULD BE ONGOING ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING THAT WILL AFFECT
DESTABILIZATION. GFS AND NAM BOTH HAVE CAPE VALUES REACHING AROUND
2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES NOT
REALLY GET INTO THE 30 TO 45 KT RANGE UNTIL THE EVENING. STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE VALLEY WESTWARD.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
AT THE START WITH SOME SEVERE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
OUT INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN LIFTING NORTH INTO CANADA
AND CLOSING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS. WHAT IS NOT GOOD AGREEMENT IS THE TIMING OF
PRECIP AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST QPF ENDS UP. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH BLANKET LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE PRECIP HERE AND THERE
BUT IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. SOME SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION BUT HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH WE WILL DESTABILIZE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THINK THAT PRECIP WILL FINALLY START TO TAPER OFF LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH AND THE SFC TROUGH
AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA.
FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN AMPLIFIES A
BIT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE
THE PROBLEM THIS PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TROUGH TIMING IS SIMILAR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE GFS IS FASTER
WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND OF LOWER AMPLITUDE THAN THE ECMWF. WILL
BLEND THE ECMWF AND GFS.
TRIMMED BACK [POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH ON MON AND MON NIGHT. WILL TRIM
BACK POPS ON TUE NIGHT
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
HAVE -SHRA AND SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER MOVING INTO KFAR
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. KEPT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES AT VCSH FOR
NOW. THINK THAT MOST CIGS WILL BE VFR ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF DIPS TO
MVFR MAY OCCUR AS PRECIP MOVES THROUGH. THE EXCEPTION IS UP AT
KDVL WHICH IS IFR BUT EXPECT IT TO RECOVER BACK TO UNRESTRICTED
CONDITIONS TOWARDS MID MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR A WHILE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DECREASING DOWN TO MVFR LATER
TONIGHT. KEPT PRECIP MENTION JUST VCSH FOR NOW BUT MAY HAVE TO
INCLUDE SOME VCTS OR PREVAILING PRECIP AS THE LATER PARTS OF THE
TRAF PERIOD DRAW CLOSER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
RECENT LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/RUNOFF IN THE TWO RIVERS
RIVER...MIDDLE RIVER AND UPPER THIEF RIVER BASINS HAS RESULTED IN
RISES ALONG THOSE TRIBUTARIES AND AT SOME FORECAST POINTS. THE NCRFC
ISSUED A FORECAST ABOVE MINOR FS AT HALLOCK BY FRIDAY...BUT HELD OFF
WITH A FLOOD WATCH. SHOULD THE WATER COMING OUT OF THE LOWER PORTION
OF THE TWO RIVERS BASIN BE REALIZED THE TWO RIVERS AT HALLOCK WILL
PEAK ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE FS.
FARGO IS STILL ABOVE MODERATE LEVEL BUT IS FALLING AND OSLO IS
FALLING VERY SLOWLY AFTER A BROAD CREST YESTERDAY.
FORECAST QPF THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SLOW FALLS OR
REVERSE TRENDS ON THE RIVER SYSTEMS. SATURATED SOILS WILL HAVE HIGH
RUNOFF EFFICIENCY...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR
HYDROLOGY...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
TWEAKED POPS A BIT MORE THIS MORNING FOR PRECIP BAND MOVING INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. CONTINUED TO HAVE A BIT OF A BREAK MID DAY
BEFORE CONVECTION REDEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON IT AS THE WRF HAS PRECIP STICKING AROUND FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE THE FORECAST
HEADACHE...PARTICULARLY TIMING AND STRENGTH.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE PLAINS AS THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS ONTO THE WEST COAST. ONE LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN
SETTING OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL ND THAT ARE JUST
STARTING TO MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. WITH GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE CWA AS 850MB JET OF AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS MOVES
EAST...THINK THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY DECENT HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT CONVECTION...SO FOLLOWED TREND OF THAT MODEL WITH HIGH
POPS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CWA DURING THE MORNING. WITH A WARMER
AIR MASS MOVING IN...THINK WE WILL STILL BE ABLE TO GET INTO THE
70S EVEN WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON
EXACTLY HOW MUCH DEBRIS FROM THIS MORNING AFFECTS DESTABILIZATION.
THE NAM HAS 3000 J/KG OF CAPE BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS UNDERDONE
ON THE CURRENT PRECIP WE HAVE OVER OUR SOUTH. MORE REASONABLE IS
THE RAP WHICH BRINGS SOME 1000-1500 J/KG INTO OUR SOUTHWEST FOR
THIS EVENING. THINK THAT SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY...BUT THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND AFTERNOON. OF GREATER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN
AS THE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MOVES INTO OUR
AREA TONIGHT. WITH MULTIPLE PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL ISSUE AN ESF BUT STILL TOO UNCERTAIN FOR ANY KIND OF
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. THE SFC TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A LOT OF MOISTURE COMING
INTO OUR CWA. TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE THE PROBLEM...AS THERE
COULD BE ONGOING ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING THAT WILL AFFECT
DESTABILIZATION. GFS AND NAM BOTH HAVE CAPE VALUES REACHING AROUND
2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES NOT
REALLY GET INTO THE 30 TO 45 KT RANGE UNTIL THE EVENING. STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE VALLEY WESTWARD.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
AT THE START WITH SOME SEVERE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
OUT INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN LIFTING NORTH INTO CANADA
AND CLOSING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS. WHAT IS NOT GOOD AGREEMENT IS THE TIMING OF
PRECIP AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST QPF ENDS UP. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH BLANKET LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE PRECIP HERE AND THERE
BUT IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. SOME SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION BUT HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH WE WILL DESTABILIZE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THINK THAT PRECIP WILL FINALLY START TO TAPER OFF LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH AND THE SFC TROUGH
AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA.
FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN AMPLIFIES A
BIT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE
THE PROBLEM THIS PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TROUGH TIMING IS SIMILAR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE GFS IS FASTER
WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND OF LOWER AMPLITUDE THAN THE ECMWF. WILL
BLEND THE ECMWF AND GFS.
TRIMMED BACK [POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH ON MON AND MON NIGHT. WILL TRIM
BACK POPS ON TUE NIGHT
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
HAVE -SHRA AND SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER MOVING INTO KFAR
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. KEPT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES AT VCSH FOR
NOW. THINK THAT MOST CIGS WILL BE VFR ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF DIPS TO
MVFR MAY OCCUR AS PRECIP MOVES THROUGH. THE EXCEPTION IS UP AT
KDVL WHICH IS IFR BUT EXPECT IT TO RECOVER BACK TO UNRESTRICTED
CONDITIONS TOWARDS MID MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR FOR A WHILE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DECREASING DOWN TO MVFR LATER
TONIGHT. KEPT PRECIP MENTION JUST VCSH FOR NOW BUT MAY HAVE TO
INCLUDE SOME VCTS OR PREVAILING PRECIP AS THE LATER PARTS OF THE
TRAF PERIOD DRAW CLOSER.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
RECENT LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/RUNOFF IN THE TWO RIVERS
RIVER...MIDDLE RIVER AND UPPER THIEF RIVER BASINS HAS RESULTED IN
RISES ALONG THOSE TRIBUTARIES AND AT SOME FORECAST POINTS. THE NCRFC
ISSUED A FORECAST ABOVE MINOR FS AT HALLOCK BY FRIDAY...BUT HELD OFF
WITH A FLOOD WATCH. SHOULD THE WATER COMING OUT OF THE LOWER PORTION
OF THE TWO RIVERS BASIN BE REALIZED THE TWO RIVERS AT HALLOCK WILL
PEAK ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE FS.
FARGO IS STILL ABOVE MODERATE LEVEL BUT IS FALLING AND OSLO IS
FALLING VERY SLOWLY AFTER A BROAD CREST YESTERDAY.
FORECAST QPF THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SLOW FALLS OR
REVERSE TRENDS ON THE RIVER SYSTEMS. SATURATED SOILS WILL HAVE HIGH
RUNOFF EFFICIENCY...AND LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR
HYDROLOGY...EWENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1014 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
MORNING ARW/NAM/RAP SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA...AND WE FEEL THAT MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF A LINE FROM PARIS TO TEMPLE.
ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN BACK UP TOMORROW...SO NO CHANGES YET FOR
ANYTHING PAST TODAY/TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO
REFLECT THIS DRIER AIR AND ONLY TWEAKED OTHER PARAMETERS SLIGHTLY.
UPDATE SHOULD BE OUT SHORTLY. 84
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 704 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRATUS OVER THE REGION AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE PRIMARY
AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD.
ALL AREA TAF SITES WERE UNDER IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS JUST BEFORE
12Z. CIGS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX HAVE IMPROVED
FROM IFR TO LOW MVFR FROM 11 TO 12Z...SO THINK THAT DFW AREA CIGS
WILL TEND TO BECOME MOSTLY LOW MVFR AFTER 13Z. CIGS WERE
CONSISTENTLY LOWER AROUND THE WACO AREA...SO CARRIED IFR CIGS
THERE AN HOUR LONGER THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE 2000 FT
BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY...AND SHOULD REACH VFR LEVELS
BY NOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 4 KM NAM AND LATEST RAP SHOW THAT OUR
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNCAPPED AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT
AHEAD WITH A COUPLE OF HOURS OF VCTS AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS. OF
COURSE WE WILL BE WATCHING SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADARS AND WILL
AMEND TAFS AS SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OR UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY APPROACHES AREA AIRPORTS.
EXPECT STRATUS TO BUILD/DEVELOP OVER ALL AREA AIRPORTS AGAIN EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...HOWEVER THE BETTER
CHANCES OCCUR AFTER 18Z...SO NO MENTION OF THIS WAS PLACED AT THE
END OF THE 30 HR DFW TAF.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014/
WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT AND PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE HAS LED TO A
STRING OF DAYS OF ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND IT APPEARS
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY. THE DIFFERENCE
TODAY IS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST...WHICH
WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION. WE WILL
MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES TODAY WHERE
THE HIGHEST MOISTURE VALUES RESIDE...WITH A GRADUAL TAPERING OF
POPS THE FARTHER WEST YOU GO. MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES OR MCVS HAVE BEEN LACKING THIS MORNING COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO...LEADING TO QUIET CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY. WE WILL
LIKELY NEED TO WAIT UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE REACHED BEFORE STORMS
INITIATE.
PWATS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IN ANY STORM WHICH DEVELOPS. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SHORT CELL DURATION....THOUGH THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING
EAST OF I-35 EAST. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL AT THIS
TIME...BUT GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS EVEN FARTHER EAST...WHILE WEAKENING...AND THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS FRIDAY
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT LINGERING OVER THE AREA.
BIGGER NEWS WILL BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO SWING
QUITE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
AT LEAST LOW-END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AREA-WIDE SATURDAY. THE
LATEST NAM12 INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...WE MAY
NEED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WOULD PREFER TO WAIT AND GET SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY
BEFORE BITING OFF ON THIS...SO FOR NOW WE WILL INDICATE BROAD-
BRUSHED POPS SATURDAY...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE MS VALLEY.
BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS HOT AND
DRY WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 88 72 89 74 90 / 10 10 20 20 20
WACO, TX 87 72 88 74 89 / 20 10 20 20 20
PARIS, TX 84 69 87 72 88 / 30 20 30 20 20
DENTON, TX 88 71 89 73 89 / 10 10 20 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 87 71 88 73 89 / 10 10 20 20 20
DALLAS, TX 88 73 89 74 89 / 10 10 20 20 20
TERRELL, TX 86 74 88 76 91 / 20 10 30 20 20
CORSICANA, TX 86 72 88 74 89 / 30 20 30 20 20
TEMPLE, TX 87 72 88 74 89 / 20 10 20 20 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 88 71 90 72 89 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
704 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRATUS OVER THE REGION AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE PRIMARY
AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD.
ALL AREA TAF SITES WERE UNDER IFR TO LOW MVFR CIGS JUST BEFORE
12Z. CIGS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX HAVE IMPROVED
FROM IFR TO LOW MVFR FROM 11 TO 12Z...SO THINK THAT DFW AREA CIGS
WILL TEND TO BECOME MOSTLY LOW MVFR AFTER 13Z. CIGS WERE
CONSISTENTLY LOWER AROUND THE WACO AREA...SO CARRIED IFR CIGS
THERE AN HOUR LONGER THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE 2000 FT
BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY...AND SHOULD REACH VFR LEVELS
BY NOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 4 KM NAM AND LATEST RAP SHOW THAT OUR
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNCAPPED AROUND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON...SO WENT
AHEAD WITH A COUPLE OF HOURS OF VCTS AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS. OF
COURSE WE WILL BE WATCHING SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADARS AND WILL
AMEND TAFS AS SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OR UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY APPROACHES AREA AIRPORTS.
EXPECT STRATUS TO BUILD/DEVELOP OVER ALL AREA AIRPORTS AGAIN EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...HOWEVER THE BETTER
CHANCES OCCUR AFTER 18Z...SO NO MENTION OF THIS WAS PLACED AT THE
END OF THE 30 HR DFW TAF.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014/
WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT AND PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE HAS LED TO A
STRING OF DAYS OF ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND IT APPEARS
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY. THE DIFFERENCE
TODAY IS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST...WHICH
WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION. WE WILL
MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES TODAY WHERE
THE HIGHEST MOISTURE VALUES RESIDE...WITH A GRADUAL TAPERING OF
POPS THE FARTHER WEST YOU GO. MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES OR MCVS HAVE BEEN LACKING THIS MORNING COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO...LEADING TO QUIET CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY. WE WILL
LIKELY NEED TO WAIT UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE REACHED BEFORE STORMS
INITIATE.
PWATS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IN ANY STORM WHICH DEVELOPS. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SHORT CELL DURATION....THOUGH THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OCCURRING
EAST OF I-35 EAST. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL AT THIS
TIME...BUT GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS EVEN FARTHER EAST...WHILE WEAKENING...AND THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS FRIDAY
GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT LINGERING OVER THE AREA.
BIGGER NEWS WILL BE A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO SWING
QUITE RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
AT LEAST LOW-END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AREA-WIDE SATURDAY. THE
LATEST NAM12 INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...WE MAY
NEED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WOULD PREFER TO WAIT AND GET SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY
BEFORE BITING OFF ON THIS...SO FOR NOW WE WILL INDICATE BROAD-
BRUSHED POPS SATURDAY...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE MS VALLEY.
BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS HOT AND
DRY WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 88 72 89 74 90 / 30 20 20 20 20
WACO, TX 87 72 88 74 89 / 30 20 20 20 20
PARIS, TX 84 69 87 72 88 / 30 20 30 20 20
DENTON, TX 88 71 89 73 89 / 30 20 20 10 20
MCKINNEY, TX 87 71 88 73 89 / 30 20 20 20 20
DALLAS, TX 88 73 89 74 89 / 30 20 20 20 20
TERRELL, TX 86 74 88 76 91 / 30 20 30 20 20
CORSICANA, TX 86 72 88 74 89 / 40 20 30 20 20
TEMPLE, TX 87 72 88 74 89 / 40 20 20 20 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 88 71 90 72 89 / 20 10 10 10 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
607 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG
OVER OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS STRATUS
DECK WAS ADVECTING WESTWARD AND EXPANDING AS EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE OVER THE AREA. LOOK FOR THIS FOG AND STRATUS TO PUSH INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA. WE SHOULD SEE THE STRATUS START TO SLOW IN ITS
WESTWARD PROGRESS THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES OVER THE HIGHWAY 52
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA. THE FOG COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGETOPS. THE
STRATUS AND WILL GRADUALLY MIX AND DISSIPATE AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA WILL BE IN PLACE. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CAPE BUILDS THIS AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS. THE NAM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNAL FOR A NON
SUPERCELL TORNADO NEAR THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN IT
PUSHES THIS SIGNAL NORTHEAST AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST
BACK INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE BIG QUESTION TODAY IS HOW MUCH
CAPE CAN WE BUILD. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SPREADING IN FROM THE THE WEST OFF OF THE
CONVECTION OVER THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN NEBRASKA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES STARTS TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS A TROUGH DIVES
INTO THE ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL CREATE AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. A COUPLE OF VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO MAKE A TURN SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER...WITHOUT A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM EXPECTING ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT IF THEY DEVELOP AT ALL. PLAN
ON OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH STAYS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. 925-850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STARTS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES START TO COOL FRIDAY EVENING WE SHOULD STABILIZE AND
SEE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPER OFF. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY LEVELS ON FRIDAY AS A MOIST AIRMASS MOVES IN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 1.5 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH THEN MAKES AN EASTWARD PUSH ON SATURDAY
WITH 925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT EDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER RIVER SATURDAY MORNING THEN IT INCREASES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4 KM AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.5 TO 1.9. THERE ISN/T A FRONT IN THE
AREA FOR THE STORMS TO FOCUS ON BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OUT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT WILL CREATE HYDROLOGY CONCERNS FOR THE LOCAL AREA. THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THIS
FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY CLEARS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING. 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR THEN STARTS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS ANOTHER TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT DIVE INTO THE AREA. THE BIG
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH WILL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVER FROM THE CONVECTION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS/ECMWF SAY WE WILL
RECOVER AND INCREASE OUR 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR TO 35 TO 45
KTS...POSSIBLY EVEN 50 KTS OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB INTO THE 1700 TO 2500 J/KG
RANGE. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE WEST OR IN
WESTERN SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE SHEAR BEING MORE
CONCENTRATED IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER EAST OF THE BOUNDARY OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...LINEAR STRUCTURES WOULD MOST LIKELY BE THE
CONVECTIVE MODE. SOME DETAILS TO SORT OUT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE...WITH HEAVY
RAIN...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS ALL POSSIBLE. DIFFICULT TO
SAY IF THERE WOULD BE TORNADO POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON FORECAST MODEL TRENDS THE NEXT FEW RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
BAND OF STRATUS AND FOG HAS WORKED WEST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO
KLSE THIS MORNING WITH IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT THE
26.09Z RAP AND 26.06Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING...BOTH MODELS SHOW THIS
LIFTING/DISSIPATING FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THIS DECK COVERS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WITH A SOUTHEAST
FLOW...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT IT WILL DISSIPATE AS QUICKLY AS
THE MODELS SUGGEST. HAVE OPTED TO CLEAR THE FOG OUT BY MID MORNING
BUT HUNG ON TO THE MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL ALMOST 18Z. CONDITIONS ARE
NOT AS BAD AT KRST WHERE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN OVERHEAD ALL NIGHT.
WILL SHOW THE MVFR FOG LIFTING THERE BY MID MORNING WITH THE
STRATUS CLOUDS STAYING TO THE WEST. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL
OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND EXPECT TO SEE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS TODAY IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY. SOME OF
THESE COULD GET CLOSE TO KRST AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A VCSH FOR
THIS ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF EARLY IN THE EVENING
ALLOWING THE SKIES TO SCATTER OUT FOR A WHILE. SOME INDICATIONS IN
THE MODELS THAT JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT TO BRING BACK A VFR CEILING TO BOTH TAF SITES. COULD
ALSO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE
ON THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK HAS LED TO SIGNIFICANT RISES
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM THE TWIN CITIES MN TO DUBUQUE
IA. SHRA/TSRA ARE IN THE FCST TODAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BUT THESE
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE WITH GENERALLY
LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/
TSRA AND HEAVIER RAINFALL RETURNS FOR LATER SAT THRU MON AS A FEED
OF VERY MOIST AND WARM AIR INCREASES INTO THE REGION...AHEAD OF A
STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SFC
FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AS DETAILS OF THE WEEKEND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT BECOME CLEARER...WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE AN ESF AND OTHER
HYDRO PRODUCTS CONCERNING THE RISK OF MORE FLOODING/FLASH
FLOODING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1112 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. NO BIG CHANGES ON FRIDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO
THE 90S AND LOWER 100S.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...AS EXPECTED, ONLY VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN FELL OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SPOTS PICKING UP
EITHER A TRACE OR 0.01" TOTAL. CURRENT RADAR AND ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA. DID A MINOR FORECAST
UPDATE THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE END OF ANY SHOWERS FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. SATELLITE DOES SHOW PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS AND THAT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF JUST 11C OFF THE
KOAK SOUNDING, WILL LEAD TO OUR COOLEST WEATHER OF THE WEEK FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 60S AT THE COAST WITH
MOSTLY 70S INLAND.
LOOK FOR WARMER WEATHER STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BACK INTO OUR AREA AND 850
MB TEMPS GO BACK TO THE 25-27C RANGE. VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY THE THREAT OF GETTING TO HEAT ADVISORY OR
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING VALUES, SO SIMPLY LOOKS LIKE NICE AND VERY
WARM WEATHER ON TAP. PEAK SHOULD BE ON MONDAY WITH THE COAST IN
THE 70S TO MID 80S WITH INLAND CITIES LOOKING AT UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 100.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE LAST HOUR AT
KSFO...OAKLAND AND LIVERMORE. ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO THE LOW
RESOLUTION GFS STARTED SHOWING SOME QPF DURING THE 6-12Z TIME
FRAME AND NOW WERE SEEING IT DEVELOP. THE SHORT TERM RAP AND HRRR
MODELS HAVE PICKED IT UP AS WELL WITH THE PRECIP BAND NOW HEADING
OVER THE EAST BAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE KMUX-88D RADAR RETURNS
IN VCP 12. ITS BEEN A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND
60 WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY AREA AND LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF 500 MB
JET MAX BEST EXPLAINS THE DYNAMICAL FORCING MOST LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE
RADAR SCOPE. PER LATEST IR AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS THE RAP
MODEL ANY DRIZZLE/SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE BAY AREA BY ABOUT
13Z THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THEN DECREASE WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7. ON FRIDAY THE
FLOW WILL STAY ZONAL WITH RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. IT`LL BE DRY OVER THE BAY AREA WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
A FEW DEGREES BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY BUT THE FLOW WILL BE
DISTINCTLY ONSHORE...KEEPING THE COAST COOL WITH MARINE CLOUDS
WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO THE 80S.
MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE MARINE LAYER
COMPRESSES TO LESS THAN 500 FEET. WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 90S
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH HOT TEMPERATURES WITHIN A
FEW MILES OF THE COAST WHILE LOWER 100S WILL OCCUR FOR THE INLAND
VALLEYS.
LATEST LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP WARM TO HOT WEATHER IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
COAST AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS WHILE PUSHING THE WARM HIGH BACK
TOWARDS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 11:10 AM PDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH HAS
WEAKENED THE MARINE INVERSION...ALLOWING THE MARINE LAYER TO MIX
OUT TO SOME EXTENT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AND MARINE LAYER
SHOULD BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED BY THIS EVENING AS WARMING BEGINS
ALOFT. THESE DEVELOPMENTS ALONG WITH MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW ARE
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN EARLY RETURN OF LOW CIGS THIS EVENING...BY
ABOUT 00Z NEAR MONTEREY BAY AND 02-03Z IN SF BAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS LOW.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR THROUGH AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP BY 02-03Z AND CONTINUE WELL INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM-HIGH THAT CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT SOME POINT DURING
THE EVENING...BUT LOW ON ONSET TIME. CLEARING EXPECTED AROUND 18Z
FRIDAY. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO
REDEVELOP AT KMRY BY 00Z AND KSNS BY 02Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS THEN
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WESTERLY AFTERNOON WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:50 AM PDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
HAS WEAKENED WHICH WILL MEAN MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN THE SHORT TERM...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SOUTH
OF POINT SUR. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER ALL COASTAL
WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. LIGHT LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL MOVE
INTO THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RWW
AVIATION: DYKEMA
MARINE: DYKEMA
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
912 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. NO BIG CHANGES ON FRIDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO
THE 90S AND LOWER 100S.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:15 AM PDT THURSDAY...AS EXPECTED, ONLY VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN FELL OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SPOTS PICKING UP
EITHER A TRACE OR 0.01" TOTAL. CURRENT RADAR AND ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA. DID A MINOR FORECAST
UPDATE THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE END OF ANY SHOWERS FOR THE REST
OF TODAY. SATELLITE DOES SHOW PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS AND THAT COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF JUST 11C OFF THE
KOAK SOUNDING, WILL LEAD TO OUR COOLEST WEATHER OF THE WEEK FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 60S AT THE COAST WITH
MOSTLY 70S INLAND.
LOOK FOR WARMER WEATHER STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BACK INTO OUR AREA AND 850
MB TEMPS GO BACK TO THE 25-27C RANGE. VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DOWNPLAY THE THREAT OF GETTING TO HEAT ADVISORY OR
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING VALUES, SO SIMPLY LOOKS LIKE NICE AND VERY
WARM WEATHER ON TAP. PEAK SHOULD BE ON MONDAY WITH THE COAST IN
THE 70S TO MID 80S WITH INLAND CITIES LOOKING AT UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 100.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE LAST HOUR AT
KSFO...OAKLAND AND LIVERMORE. ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO THE LOW
RESOLUTION GFS STARTED SHOWING SOME QPF DURING THE 6-12Z TIME
FRAME AND NOW WERE SEEING IT DEVELOP. THE SHORT TERM RAP AND HRRR
MODELS HAVE PICKED IT UP AS WELL WITH THE PRECIP BAND NOW HEADING
OVER THE EAST BAY WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE KMUX-88D RADAR RETURNS
IN VCP 12. ITS BEEN A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND
60 WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY AREA AND LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF 500 MB
JET MAX BEST EXPLAINS THE DYNAMICAL FORCING MOST LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE
RADAR SCOPE. PER LATEST IR AND RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS THE RAP
MODEL ANY DRIZZLE/SHOWERS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE BAY AREA BY ABOUT
13Z THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THEN DECREASE WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7. ON FRIDAY THE
FLOW WILL STAY ZONAL WITH RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES NORTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. IT`LL BE DRY OVER THE BAY AREA WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
A FEW DEGREES BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY BUT THE FLOW WILL BE
DISTINCTLY ONSHORE...KEEPING THE COAST COOL WITH MARINE CLOUDS
WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO THE 80S.
MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS TOWARDS THE COAST AND THE MARINE LAYER
COMPRESSES TO LESS THAN 500 FEET. WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE 90S
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE DISTRICT WITH HOT TEMPERATURES WITHIN A
FEW MILES OF THE COAST WHILE LOWER 100S WILL OCCUR FOR THE INLAND
VALLEYS.
LATEST LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS KEEP WARM TO HOT WEATHER IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
COAST AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS WHILE PUSHING THE WARM HIGH BACK
TOWARDS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 04:45 AM PDT THURSDAY...FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS
MORNING...RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND VISIBILITIES
HAVE IMPROVED. INCREASED MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD PROMOTE MORE
CLEARING TODAY THOUGH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP CLOUDS IN
COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. EARLIER CLEARING ALSO
POSSIBILITY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY MIXING OCCURS.
VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR THIS MORNING. CLEARING FORECAST FOR
18-19Z...LOW CONFIDENCE. EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS LIKELY.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR TO PERSIST MOST OF THE
MORNING...LOW CONFIDENCE. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. STRATUS TO RETURN BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 03:48 AM PDT THURSDAY...A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL LEAVE BEHIND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SOUTH OF POINT SUR. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN
OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. LIGHT LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL MOVE
INTO THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...SF BAY NORTH OF THE BAY BRIDGE FROM 3 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: BELL/RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: AC
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
307 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014
...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...
DEW POINTS HOLDING IN LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THAN HIGH
RES SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGESTED...WHILE THEY HAVE DROPPED DOWN INTO
THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...WITH AXIS OF HIGHER DEW POINTS (50S) REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF KIOWA...PROWERS...AND BACA COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD
YIELD UP TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE. 0-6 KM SHEARS INCREASE TO AROUND 30-
40 KTS BY 00Z...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HRRR WHICH ORIGINALLY KEPT
SOUTHEAST CO DRY...HAS NOW TRENDED TOWARDS THE EARLIER RUNS OF THE
RAP13 AND NSSL WRF...GENERATING STORMS ACROSS BACA/PROWERS COUNTIES
BY 22Z...THEN MOVING THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO KS BY 02-03Z. LCLS
WILL BE A TAD ON THE HIGH SIDE...SO MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHTNING. ELSEWHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE PIKES PEAK
REGION...BUT THESE WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING
AND ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE ACROSS CO
THROUGH THE DAY. TIMING OF THE TROF SUGGESTS GREATEST LIFT WILL BE
DURING THE MORNING...AND MODELS DEVELOP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS HIGH BASED...SO PRIMARY THREATS WILL
BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS...THOUGH WITH THE TROF MOVING THROUGH
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM OR TWO OVER THE MOUNTAINS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME SMALL HAIL. WITH LCLS FAIRLY
HIGH...THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ON BURN SCARS LOOKS LOW. IN
FACT...TOMORROW RAISES CONCERNS FOR DRY LIGHTNING...BUT MOISTURE
LOOKS TO MEAGER FOR COVERAGE TO WARRANT A DRY LIGHTING OUTBREAK.
NONE THE LESS...FUELS STATUS PAGE INDICATES THAT
CHAFFEE...LAKE...FREMONT...TELLER AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET
MOUNTAINS HAVE DRIED OUT SUFFICIENTLY FOR FUELS TO BE CATEGORIZED AS
CRITICAL.
MEANWHILE...DRY LINE WILL MIX EASTWARD TO THE CO/KS BORDER...PUTTING
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER JUST OVER THE EASTERN BORDER INTO KANSAS.
GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE UPPER TROF...THIS LOOKS REASONABLY AND AGREE
WITH SPC DAY2 THREAT POSITION. ANY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME PRODUCING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF RAINFALL. -KT
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014
...WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...NO BIG CHANGES IN CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH DRY AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND
PASSING UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY
NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED GENERALLY HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST
FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE. DRY AND WARM WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO KEEP ANY
CONVECTION HIGH BASED AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD SEE HIGHS
WARMING BACK INTO THE 90S TO LOWER 100S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY...WITH MAINLY 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
PLAINS. WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED BREEZY AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS...FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHICH HAVE
NOT HAVE HAD MUCH PRECIPITATION RECENTLY.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT POSSIBLE START OF THE
SW MONSOON THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST....OWNING
TO INCREASING AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITHIN WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST MID
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY AND SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXPECTED
INCREASING STORM COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AT THE TERMINALS...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THIS
EVENING. UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AT ALL 3
TERMINALS. HIGH BASED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING THE PRIMARY
STORM THREATS. THIS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE KCOS AND
KALS TERMINALS. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
323 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...MID TO LATE AFTERNOON STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED INITIALLY
WEST OF I-95 AND OVER THE INTERIOR AS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WL FORCE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. LTST HRRR RUN
CONTINUES TO SHOW A LATE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH
SLY MOTION ASSISTED BY NUMEROUS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL THROUGH AROUND 9 PM.
FRI-SAT...PRESENCE OF A SFC TROUGH ALONG THE MID ATLC SEABOARD INTO THE
CENTRAL FL AREA WL ACT TO SUPPRESS HIGH PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA. DEVELOPMENT OF SCT STORMS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST
LOCALLY. A CONTINUATION OF N TO NNW STEERING LEVEL WINDS WL KEEP A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST IN PLACE WITH LATE DIURNALLY FORCED
STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE AREAS SOUTH OF METRO ORLANDO TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE INCLUDING THE TREASURE/SPACE COASTS. COVERAGE WILL BE
IN THE MID SCT RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER AMTS NORTH OF ORLANDO DUE
TO SOME DRYING.
SUN-WED...(FROM PREV DISC) THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST IS FORECAST BY THE GFS AS WELL AS RECENT
DEPICTIONS OF THE ECMWF TO SLOWLY SLIP SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE
GA/FL COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
FORECAST OVER 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. WILL
KEEP SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
AREAWIDE WITH WARM/MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD INITIATE TS ALNG TO W OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...AFT 26/21Z SCT IFR TSRAS DVLPG INTERIOR MVG S/SE NR
15KTS. ISOLD IFR TSRAS DVLPG ALNG THE SEA BREEZE W OF KMLB-KOBE
MVG S 10TO 15KTS. AFT 26/22Z...ISOLD IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA...SFC
WND G35KTS+...CONTG THRU 27/02Z. AFT 27/02Z...BCMG VFR ALL
SITES...SFC WNDS LGT/VRBL.
&&
.MARINE...TONIGHT-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS JUST SOUTH OF THE
WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE OFFSHORE BREEZE. PRIMARY
MARINE WX HAZARD WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING TSTMS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT. LIGHT OFFSHORE MORNING WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...BECOMING OFFSHORE AGAIN IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS AOB 10 KTS. SEAS AOB 3 FT.
PRIMARY MARINE WX HAZARD WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING TSTMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SAT-SUN...THE RIDGE AXIS GETS NUDGED FURTHER SOUTHWARD WITH A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. LIGHT OFFSHORE
MORNING/EVENING FLOW WITH ONSHORE FLOW SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN EACH DAY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE FORMATION. AGAIN WINDS MAINLY AOB
10 KTS. SEAS AOB 3 FT. THE MAIN MARINER HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DUE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 74 94 74 94 / 30 30 30 30
MCO 75 94 75 95 / 30 40 30 40
MLB 74 92 74 91 / 30 40 30 30
VRB 73 92 74 91 / 30 40 30 30
LEE 76 95 77 94 / 30 30 30 40
SFB 76 95 77 96 / 30 40 30 40
ORL 77 95 78 96 / 30 40 30 40
FPR 72 90 72 91 / 30 40 30 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...PENDERGRAST
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
204 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PUSHING NEWD OVER THE
FL PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL GA AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLC. A
SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE MID ATLC COAST S INTO NE FL.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SUBDUED TODAY WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING...AND ATLC SEA BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE CROSSING THE BIG BEND INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS AFTN. HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY INCREASING AFTER 3 PM OVER
THE SRN TIER AND MARCHING EWD. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE WHEN THE
SEA BREEZES CONVERGE OVER THE ERN COUNTIES LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE IN
THE 5-8 PM TIME FRAME. WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE MAIN CONCERN.
UPR RIDGING SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRI/SAT. LOW-LEVEL NW FLOW WILL
KEEP EAST COAST SEA BREEZE GENERALLY E OF I-95 CORRIDOR. MOIST
AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS/T-STORMS BOTH DAYS. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FAVORS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN MID 90S WELL INLAND...
LOW 90S NEAR COAST...LOWS BOTH NIGHTS LOW 70S INLAND...MID 70S
COAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM....SUN THRU WED...
GFS/ECM SHOW WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF COAST OF SC SUNDAY...
THEN DIFFER ON FUTURE OF WEAK SYSTEM. ECM MOVES IT SW TOWARD
AND OVER NRN FL...WHILE NEW GFS STALL WEAK LOW OVER GULF STREAM
SUN/MON. OTHER MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. FOR THIS FORECAST
GENERALLY FOLLOWED WEAKER GFS SOLUTION OF STALLED WEAK LOW WELL
OFFSHORE OF GA...WITH WEAK EAST TO NORTH FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA
AROUND CIRCULATION.
OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WITH
MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE...THOUGH SLIGHT COOLING TO AROUND NORMAL POSSIBLE EASTERN
COUNTIES IF WEAK OFFSHORE LOW GENERATES NE ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
SE GA/NE FL COASTLINE.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED...EXCEPT IN VICINITY OF TSRA WHICH ARE
FORECAST FOR LATE AFTN BEGINNING 21Z THROUGH 01Z. A SEA BREEZE
WILL SHIFT WINDS BRIEFLY TO SE AT CRG AND SSI. THE SBRZ MAY REACH
JAX AROUND 23Z.
&&
.MARINE...
A GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS SFC RIDGE
REMAINS S OF THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A TROUGH/SFC LOW
E OF ST AUGUSTINE. THIS WOULD PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY STRONGER N
TO NE FLOW OVER THE AREA SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WILL SHOW ONSHORE WINDS BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 71 93 70 94 / 20 20 20 20
SSI 76 90 76 92 / 20 20 20 20
JAX 73 93 73 95 / 30 30 30 30
SGJ 75 90 75 92 / 30 30 30 30
GNV 72 93 71 95 / 30 30 30 20
OCF 72 93 71 95 / 30 30 30 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
TRABERT/WOLF/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
232 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
246 AM CDT
WE BEGIN TODAY AS WE STARTED THE PAST EIGHT WITH FOG ONCE AGAIN
IN THE CHICAGO METRO. THAT FOG AND EVEN MORE SO STRATUS THIS MORNING
AND INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES ARE INITIAL CHALLENGES TO THE
FORECAST. THAT IS FOLLOWED BY OF COURSE OUR DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. STORM CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE AT SOME POINT EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND WEIGHING THAT WITH TEMPERATURES WAS A FOCUS OF THIS MORNING
AS WELL.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE GOES 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL THIS MORNING REVEALS WIDESPREAD
STRATUS WHICH HAD SPREAD FROM THE LAKE WELL INLAND LATE LAST
EVENING. THIS WAS ALSO DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE BUT HAD LIFTED TO
MORE OF A STRATUS DECK INLAND. ANY VISIBILITY UNDER ONE MILE IS
SOMEWHAT PATCHY OUTSIDE OF ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE AS OF 230
AM. BECAUSE OF THAT DO NOT SEE THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY THIS MORNING
BUT MAY HIGHLIGHT WITH AN SPS DEPENDING ON VISIBILITY TRENDS. LATEST
AMDAR DATA INDICATES THE STRATUS IS 1000-1500 FT THICK AND NOT
WITHIN THAT STEEP OF AN INVERSION. SO ENVISION MUCH OF THIS OUTSIDE
OF FAR NORTHEAST IL BURNING OFF QUICKLY AND HAVING LIMITED HAMPERING
OF TEMPERATURES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A 1019MB
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED DOWN LAKE MI. THIS HAS LED TO DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND LIKELY HELPED THE FOG FROM BEING AS DENSE THIS
MORNING. YESTERDAY SAW A 20F+ TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM DOWNTOWN
CHICAGO TO FAR OUTLYING AREAS. THIS SHOULD BE FAR LESS TODAY GIVEN
LESS FOG DOWNTOWN AND LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT DRIVING NORTHEAST
WIND SPEEDS.
A SHORT WAVE IN SOUTHWEST IA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL RIDE EAST
INTO NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOMEWHAT DAMPEN AT THE SAME
TIME. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 LOOK TO BE REACHED IN
NORTH CENTRAL IL AWAY FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCE. LESS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND A WEAKER WAVE ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY SHOULD PROVIDE
LESS COVERAGE AS WELL AS LESS GUSTO TO ANY STORMS. THIS IS SUPPORTED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FORECAST ONLY AT 15-20 KT. WE CONTINUE THE
20-40 POPS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF ILLINOIS HIGHWAY 47. SOME
LINGERING WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD FESTER HERE AND THERE
TONIGHT AS HAS BEEN SEEN IN THIS PATTERN. ANY FOG TONIGHT ALONG THE
SHORE AREAS SHOULD BE EVEN LESS DENSE OR MAYBE NON-EXISTENT
ALTOGETHER GIVEN LESS OF A NORTHERLY FETCH DOWN THE SOURCE REGION OF
THE LAKE AND OVERALL SYNOPTIC DRYING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A STRONG WESTERLY JET SEEN THIS MORNING OVER THE PACIFIC WILL INVADE
THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL DEEPEN AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH MODEST AMPLIFICATION OF
THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. IN RESPONSE. THE
FORCING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THIS TIME OVER THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS
NEBULOUS AND TIED TO SUBTLE MID-LEVEL FEATURES AND BROAD WARM
WARM/MOIST ASCENT. WITHIN THE OVERALL BUILDING HEIGHTS A WEAK
DISORGANIZED UPPER LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT
NORTH-NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WE MAY BE GRAZED BY
ITS WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT. OVERALL THIS PERIOD HAS LOOKED LESS
FAVORABLE OVER TIME FOR PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
SIGNAL IS WEAKER. FORECAST HIGHS ARE MID 80S ON BOTH DAYS ALTHOUGH
LAKE COOLING FOR COOK AND LAKE COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS WILL OCCUR ON
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND THE END OF THE 26.00 NAM AND 26.03 SREF RUNS
ARE COMING INTO SOME AGREEMENT WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE AND MORE
FOCUSED MOISTURE ADVECTION ON SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION COULD END UP BEING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BUT HAVE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THESE PERIODS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY COULD BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THIS AS GFS/EC 850MB TEMPS OF
18C-21C ARE SUPPORTIVE OF 90+ AREAWIDE. HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVELY AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DID AND KEPT HIGHS MORE MID
80S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR REACHING THAT 90
MARK AND LIKELY TO A BE A HUMID DAY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS A
FETCH OF LOWER-MID 70S DEW POINTS SHOULD EXTEND UP THE PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE MODESTLY
UNSTABLE UNDER LOWERING HEIGHTS AS THE CANADIAN TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD. MONDAY NIGHT IS THE CURRENT PERIOD FOR FROPA ON A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT
PERIOD...BUT NOTHING OVERBOARD AS THE TIMING WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE
FURTHER REFINED. WITH THE MOISTURE AND JUST SYNOPTIC SETUP...THERE
LOOKS AS IF THERE COULD BE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD INCLUDE OUR
AREA.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* NE WINDS PICK UP SOME THIS AFTERNOON
* LIFR CIGS/IFR VSBY POSSIBLE TONIGHT
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT TO THE NE WINDS EXPECTED TO PUSH SPEEDS TO AROUND 10KT
FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE EASING THIS EVENING. BANK OF STRATUS AND
FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER LAND BUT WILL PROBABLY LINGER OVER THE
LAKE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW STRATUS
AND FOG TO RE-SURGE INLAND BY EARLY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
DARK. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD VEER TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN STRATUS/FOG FAVORING
AREAS NORTH MORE AND LIKELY DISSIPATING EARLIER ON FRIDAY IF IT
DEVELOPS. AT THIS POINT WOULD THINK THE PROBABILITY OF LIFR CIGS
MOVING INTO ORD IS AROUND 40-50 PERCENT AND DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE TO FORM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FAVOR LAKE COUNTY IL SOUTH INTO NORTHERN COOK COUNTY
WITH ORD MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE A WIND SHIFT TO EASTERLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBY TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING WINDS STAYING MOSTLY BELOW 10KT
THIS AFTERNOON
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND MVFR OR LOWER CIGS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
230 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE IS SPRAWLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THEN LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA.
SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH FLOW WILL INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...TOPPING OUT IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING UP FRESH 70
DEGREE DEWPOINTS OVER THE STILL COOL WATERS OF THE LAKE AND COULD
PROLONG THE FOG THREAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SPREAD THE AREAS
OF FOG BACK TO THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD BY
MIDWEEK.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 PM FRIDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1259 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
Weak frontal boundary remains draped along the I-74 corridor this
morning. Widespread fog that developed along/north of the boundary
overnight has lifted into a low overcast across the far northern
KILX CWA. This cloud cover will rapidly dissipate over the next 1
to 2 hours. After that, scattered diurnal clouds will develop
toward midday through the afternoon hours, yielding a partly to
mostly sunny sky. May see a few thunderstorms around the area as
well, although areal coverage will remain quite low due to lack of
upper support. High-res models such as the HRRR and RAP focus on
the W/SW CWA this afternoon. Have therefore adjusted POPs to carry
scattered thunderstorms across the western zones and only isolated
across the east.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1259 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
Widely scattered convection currently developing along an old
frontal boundary near the Mississippi River will gradually spread
northeastward into central Illinois this afternoon. With little to
no upper support, think areal coverage will remain low. As a
result, will only mention VCTS at the TAF sites. Any storms that
occur will dissipate early this evening, followed by mostly clear
skies overnight. Winds will be light/variable this afternoon and
tonight, then will become S/SE at around 10kt Friday morning.
Barnes
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 306 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
Hot, humid summertime with a weak boundary and several small waves
to help trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms periodically through
the forecast. Bringing in finesse to the forecast with the shaky
performance of the operational models is difficult at best. GFS is
already off with widespread convection over the FA, and the NAM is
doing somewhat better with a delay on the approaching wave until
later today. Increasing pops today going into the afternoon,
particularly along the boundary as it drifts very slowly with the
warming of the day, providing a weak focus for some storms.
Forecast very much a blend of different models and different runs,
with deference to a chaotic solution set in an unstable summer
airmass. Results...a lot of small pops. Best chances for precip
actually land with the next larger system that will have more of
an affect this weekend and the first half of next week. Same wave
just coming onshore this morning on the west coast and expect a
little bit more confidence to build as the system becomes better
sampled in the next couple runs.
SHORT TERM...Today and tonight...
Dense fog creeping into the NE portions of the CWA from NRN IL
as temps drop under the mostly clear skies in an area of rich llvl
moisture from yesterdays rain. Increasing chances for rain as the
next wave/and remains of overnight weakening MCS from the Plains
makes its way eastward into the Midwest. ECMWF more dominated by
subsidence and drier. Keeping the pops low and more coverage
wording today and tonight as a result. Precip lingering a bit into
the overnight in models and with continued southerly flow and that
stagnant boundary...keeping the pops for the overnight.
Temperatures similar with the recent trends.
LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...
Right now, chance PoPs remain in the forecast Friday through the
weekend, though there is doubt for Friday/Friday night and
depending on the timing and amplification of the synoptic pattern
and strength of some weak ridging at the sfc. Sunday, models are
hinting at the next major storm system spinning up as that trof
amplifies over the western half of the CONUS and goes to a
slightly negative tilt over the nrn Plains/Upper Midwest for the
end of the weekend. Models continuing to deepen the sfc low well
to the north in srn Canada. At this point, the bulk of that system
looks to be north of ILX, though cold frontal features pass
through ILX spawning storms along the way. Will probably see
continued stormy impacts for Monday/Monday night, though the
timing is changing by 12 hrs back and forth with subsequent
synoptic runs...particularly across the northern half of the
state.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1103 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
246 AM CDT
WE BEGIN TODAY AS WE STARTED THE PAST EIGHT WITH FOG ONCE AGAIN
IN THE CHICAGO METRO. THAT FOG AND EVEN MORE SO STRATUS THIS MORNING
AND INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES ARE INITIAL CHALLENGES TO THE
FORECAST. THAT IS FOLLOWED BY OF COURSE OUR DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. STORM CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE AT SOME POINT EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND WEIGHING THAT WITH TEMPERATURES WAS A FOCUS OF THIS MORNING
AS WELL.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE GOES 11-3.9 MICRON CHANNEL THIS MORNING REVEALS WIDESPREAD
STRATUS WHICH HAD SPREAD FROM THE LAKE WELL INLAND LATE LAST
EVENING. THIS WAS ALSO DENSE FOG OVER THE LAKE BUT HAD LIFTED TO
MORE OF A STRATUS DECK INLAND. ANY VISIBILITY UNDER ONE MILE IS
SOMEWHAT PATCHY OUTSIDE OF ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE AS OF 230
AM. BECAUSE OF THAT DO NOT SEE THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY THIS MORNING
BUT MAY HIGHLIGHT WITH AN SPS DEPENDING ON VISIBILITY TRENDS. LATEST
AMDAR DATA INDICATES THE STRATUS IS 1000-1500 FT THICK AND NOT
WITHIN THAT STEEP OF AN INVERSION. SO ENVISION MUCH OF THIS OUTSIDE
OF FAR NORTHEAST IL BURNING OFF QUICKLY AND HAVING LIMITED HAMPERING
OF TEMPERATURES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A 1019MB
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED DOWN LAKE MI. THIS HAS LED TO DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND LIKELY HELPED THE FOG FROM BEING AS DENSE THIS
MORNING. YESTERDAY SAW A 20F+ TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM DOWNTOWN
CHICAGO TO FAR OUTLYING AREAS. THIS SHOULD BE FAR LESS TODAY GIVEN
LESS FOG DOWNTOWN AND LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT DRIVING NORTHEAST
WIND SPEEDS.
A SHORT WAVE IN SOUTHWEST IA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL RIDE EAST
INTO NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOMEWHAT DAMPEN AT THE SAME
TIME. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 LOOK TO BE REACHED IN
NORTH CENTRAL IL AWAY FROM THE LAKE INFLUENCE. LESS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND A WEAKER WAVE ALOFT THAN YESTERDAY SHOULD PROVIDE
LESS COVERAGE AS WELL AS LESS GUSTO TO ANY STORMS. THIS IS SUPPORTED
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FORECAST ONLY AT 15-20 KT. WE CONTINUE THE
20-40 POPS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF ILLINOIS HIGHWAY 47. SOME
LINGERING WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD FESTER HERE AND THERE
TONIGHT AS HAS BEEN SEEN IN THIS PATTERN. ANY FOG TONIGHT ALONG THE
SHORE AREAS SHOULD BE EVEN LESS DENSE OR MAYBE NON-EXISTENT
ALTOGETHER GIVEN LESS OF A NORTHERLY FETCH DOWN THE SOURCE REGION OF
THE LAKE AND OVERALL SYNOPTIC DRYING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
A STRONG WESTERLY JET SEEN THIS MORNING OVER THE PACIFIC WILL INVADE
THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL DEEPEN AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH MODEST AMPLIFICATION OF
THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. IN RESPONSE. THE
FORCING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THIS TIME OVER THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS
NEBULOUS AND TIED TO SUBTLE MID-LEVEL FEATURES AND BROAD WARM
WARM/MOIST ASCENT. WITHIN THE OVERALL BUILDING HEIGHTS A WEAK
DISORGANIZED UPPER LOW ACROSS LOUISIANA THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT
NORTH-NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WE MAY BE GRAZED BY
ITS WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT. OVERALL THIS PERIOD HAS LOOKED LESS
FAVORABLE OVER TIME FOR PRECIP COVERAGE AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
SIGNAL IS WEAKER. FORECAST HIGHS ARE MID 80S ON BOTH DAYS ALTHOUGH
LAKE COOLING FOR COOK AND LAKE COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS WILL OCCUR ON
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AND THE END OF THE 26.00 NAM AND 26.03 SREF RUNS
ARE COMING INTO SOME AGREEMENT WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE AND MORE
FOCUSED MOISTURE ADVECTION ON SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION COULD END UP BEING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BUT HAVE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THESE PERIODS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY COULD BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THIS AS GFS/EC 850MB TEMPS OF
18C-21C ARE SUPPORTIVE OF 90+ AREAWIDE. HAVE LEANED A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVELY AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT DID AND KEPT HIGHS MORE MID
80S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR REACHING THAT 90
MARK AND LIKELY TO A BE A HUMID DAY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AS A
FETCH OF LOWER-MID 70S DEW POINTS SHOULD EXTEND UP THE PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGIONS. THIS AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE MODESTLY
UNSTABLE UNDER LOWERING HEIGHTS AS THE CANADIAN TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD. MONDAY NIGHT IS THE CURRENT PERIOD FOR FROPA ON A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT
PERIOD...BUT NOTHING OVERBOARD AS THE TIMING WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE
FURTHER REFINED. WITH THE MOISTURE AND JUST SYNOPTIC SETUP...THERE
LOOKS AS IF THERE COULD BE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT THAT COULD INCLUDE OUR
AREA.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON
* LIFR CIGS/IFR VSBY POTENTIALLY REDEVELOPING TONIGHT
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA AND ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DURG THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND THEN RESUME A WEAK NELY
FLOW BY MID MORNING. A LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE WIND FIELD WILL SET
UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...NOT REALLY A CLASSIC LAKE BREEZE...BUT
WINDS SHOULD VEER MORE ELY AND INCREASE A BIT...BUT GENERALLY
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 10KT. WINDS WILL THEN WEAKEN TO
LGT/VRBL THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOW CIGS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN FLIGHT CATEGORY THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. WITH THE UNSEASONABLY COOL FLOW OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN IT WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGER THAN NORMAL INTO THE MORNING
FOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AND EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS
TO 15Z OR SO. EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THAT THE TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY AS LAKE-
STABILIZED AIR WILL COVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS SNEAKING INTO THE RFD AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALSO THE
AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MORE MODIFIED AND LESS LAKE STABILIZED
FARTHER AWAY FORM LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL CARRY A DRY FORECAST FOR RFD
FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE BUT WILL CONSIDER AT LEAST A VCSH OR VCTS
WITH THE NEXT UPDATES.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG/VIS TRENDS TODAY
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS TONIGHT
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND MVFR OR LOWER CIGS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
300 AM CDT
BROAD LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM NOVA SCOTIA TO FLORIDA WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM QUEBEC THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS HAS SET UP GENENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER
LAND AND A GENERALLY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE REGION...WINDS OVER
THE OPEN WATERS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE SETTING UP ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON LAND. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SETTLE
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY NIGHT
WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE AND WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SETTING UP MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LAKE...WHICH COULD REACH
15 TO 25 KT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WILL
TAKE AN ODD TURN TO THE NORTH...INTO SASKATCHEWAN BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AS THE LOW THEN TAKES A TURN TO
THE EAST...TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 PM FRIDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1045 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
Weak frontal boundary remains draped along the I-74 corridor this
morning. Widespread fog that developed along/north of the boundary
overnight has lifted into a low overcast across the far northern
KILX CWA. This cloud cover will rapidly dissipate over the next 1
to 2 hours. After that, scattered diurnal clouds will develop
toward midday through the afternoon hours, yielding a partly to
mostly sunny sky. May see a few thunderstorms around the area as
well, although areal coverage will remain quite low due to lack of
upper support. High-res models such as the HRRR and RAP focus on
the W/SW CWA this afternoon. Have therefore adjusted POPs to carry
scattered thunderstorms across the western zones and only isolated
across the east.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 702 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
Dense fog affecting areas in the vicinity of KDNV-KBMI-KPIA-KPNT
producing visibilities less than 1/4 mile while local IFR/MVFR
visibilities surround this region. Fog expected to dissipate by
around 14Z with daytime heating. With continued afternoon
heating...isolated-scattered thunderstorms expected after
21Z. Local IFR visibilities and gusty winds expected.
Overnight...decreasing thunderstorm activity is expected...and
mention of thunderstorms in area TAFs is not included as
probabilities are too low.
Onton
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 306 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
Hot, humid summertime with a weak boundary and several small waves
to help trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms periodically through
the forecast. Bringing in finesse to the forecast with the shaky
performance of the operational models is difficult at best. GFS is
already off with widespread convection over the FA, and the NAM is
doing somewhat better with a delay on the approaching wave until
later today. Increasing pops today going into the afternoon,
particularly along the boundary as it drifts very slowly with the
warming of the day, providing a weak focus for some storms.
Forecast very much a blend of different models and different runs,
with deference to a chaotic solution set in an unstable summer
airmass. Results...a lot of small pops. Best chances for precip
actually land with the next larger system that will have more of
an affect this weekend and the first half of next week. Same wave
just coming onshore this morning on the west coast and expect a
little bit more confidence to build as the system becomes better
sampled in the next couple runs.
SHORT TERM...Today and tonight...
Dense fog creeping into the NE portions of the CWA from NRN IL
as temps drop under the mostly clear skies in an area of rich llvl
moisture from yesterdays rain. Increasing chances for rain as the
next wave/and remains of overnight weakening MCS from the Plains
makes its way eastward into the Midwest. ECMWF more dominated by
subsidence and drier. Keeping the pops low and more coverage
wording today and tonight as a result. Precip lingering a bit into
the overnight in models and with continued southerly flow and that
stagnant boundary...keeping the pops for the overnight.
Temperatures similar with the recent trends.
LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...
Right now, chance PoPs remain in the forecast Friday through the
weekend, though there is doubt for Friday/Friday night and
depending on the timing and amplification of the synoptic pattern
and strength of some weak ridging at the sfc. Sunday, models are
hinting at the next major storm system spinning up as that trof
amplifies over the western half of the CONUS and goes to a
slightly negative tilt over the nrn Plains/Upper Midwest for the
end of the weekend. Models continuing to deepen the sfc low well
to the north in srn Canada. At this point, the bulk of that system
looks to be north of ILX, though cold frontal features pass
through ILX spawning storms along the way. Will probably see
continued stormy impacts for Monday/Monday night, though the
timing is changing by 12 hrs back and forth with subsequent
synoptic runs...particularly across the northern half of the
state.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1248 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
CONVECTION IS MAINTAINING ITSELF ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
OF KCID. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
THAT SHOULD SLOWLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH PEAK HEATING.
THE LOW LAKE STRATUS IS SLOWLY DISSIPATING BUT HANGING ON FROM
KDBQ DOWN TO NEAR KSQI. THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
AFTERNOON ALLOWING A QUICK JUMP IN TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1051 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT HAS MAINTAINED THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
NEW DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST 90 MINUTES.
EXPERIMENTAL CLOUD TOP COOLING AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION PRODUCTS
POINT TO CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN IOWA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...CONVECTION OVER EASTERN IOWA WILL BE TIED
TO THE BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY RUNS FROM JUST SOUTH OF KSUX TO
KAAA. AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD ACHIEVE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN THE 17Z-18Z TIME FRAME.
THE LAKE INDUCED STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONCE SKIES CLEAR THERE
SHOULD BE A QUICK JUMP IN TEMPERATURES OF 5-10 DEGREES IN ABOUT AN
HOUR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
UPDATED FCST FOR STRATUS AND FOG AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS. LEADING EDGE OF
STRATUS NEAR DUBUQUE TO QUAD CITIES LINE AND MAY MOVE A LITTLE
MORE WESTWARD OVER NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE PUTTING ON THE BRAKES AS
SUN CONTINUES TO RISE. ADDED MENTION OF DENSE FOG WITH THE STRATUS
BASED ON OBS. WILL NOT ADJUST HIGH TEMPS ATTIM BUT MAY HAVE TO
LOWER A BIT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RVR NOW THAT THE STRATUS HAS MOVED
IN. FRESHENED UP POPS WITH SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING ALONG HWY
20 CORRIDOR INTO NW IL... OTHERWISE DRY TO START REST OF CWA.
BATCH OF CONVECTION IN CENTRAL IA SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD PORTIONS
OF WESTERN CWA AND SHOULD MOVE IN AREAS WEST OF CEDAR RAPIDS TO
WASHINGTON LINE A BIT LATER THIS AM...BARRING ANY DEVELOPMENT OUT
AHEAD.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO SOUTHWEST CWA AT 07Z AND EXTENDS
ROUGHLY FROM JUST NORTH OF A RAPID CITY SD TO DES MOINES IA... TO
INDIANAPOLIS IN. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS AM SHOWS
CONVECTION FOCUSED MOSTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
WHERE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE AXIS ARE ALIGNED.
WEAK PERTURBATION MOVING EAST FROM NE AND ATTENDANT WARM...MOIST
ADVECTION AIDING WING OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM
PORTIONS OF SW-CNTRL-NE IA. LAKE ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW POST
FRONTAL AIDING LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH LEADING EDGE
ROUGHLY ON A LINE FROM MINERAL POINT WI TO STERLING/ROCK FALLS
IL... TO PRINCETON IL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO NOT MOVE MUCH NEXT 24 HOURS AND REMAIN
IN VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST CWA. WEAK PERTURBATION(S) AND ATTENDANT
SUBTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION IN COMBINATION WITH FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TDY... ALBEIT
STILL LARGELY UNORGANIZED AND GENERALLY SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH SOME
SUGGESTION THAT BEST COVERAGE MAY BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. SOME
DIMINISHING OF PCPN ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNSET BUT MAY SEE REDEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED ACTIVITY LATE EVE/OVRNGT WITH SECONDARY BRANCH OF LOW LEVEL
JET AND THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MO
RVR VLY.
STRATUS LOOKS TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MAKING INROADS INTO EASTERN CWA
EARLY THIS AM... BUT SUNRISE WILL BRING MOVEMENT TO HALT AND HRRR AND
RAP SUGGEST FINAL RESTING SPOT FOR STRATUS WILL BE ROUGHLY NEAR LINE
FROM KDBQ TO EAST OF KMLI. STRATUS SHOULD LIFT INTO EXTENSIVE CU
FIELD AND WILL AID IN LIMITING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80F NORTHEAST CWA. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY PTSUNNY OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 60S SW CWA WITH
PTCLDY SKIES OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
INCREASE IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE THIS MORNING AS MODELS BEGIN TO
CONGEAL ON THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION.
SPECIFICALLY...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM AREA ALL REMARKABLY IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWFA MONDAY. THUS
SEE NO REASON TO DIVERGE AND WILL STICK WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND WITH
MORE CONFIDENCE THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
FRIDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A WIDE OPEN GULF
SUPPORT WARM...BREEZY...AND HUMID. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS SURFACE DEW POINTS APPROACH 70 DEGREES
AND A WEAK WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GFS IS
SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...LOOKING OVERDONE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS
WAVE. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS DO SHOW SOME REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE
...AND WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMING DO THINK THERE WILL
BE SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. LACK
OF STRONG DYNAMICS SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE FOR FRIDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH MORE UPPER SUPPORT AS THE
WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY.
BY SUNDAY WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A FEW ROUNDS OF MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS IA. TIMING
OF THE FROPA DURING THE DAY MONDAY WOULD LEND ITSELF TO INCREASED
RISK OF SEVERE WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...AND THIS BEARS WATCH.
QUIETER FOR MID WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH BEGINS TO SETTLE IN.
DMD
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT RUNS
FROM ROUGHLY KSUX TO KPIA. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH 02Z/27 SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NORTH OF
THE FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AS A
SHRA/TSRA MOVES THROUGH A TAF SITE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z/27. AFT 06Z/27 MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THROUGH SUNRISE.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...DMD
AVIATION...08
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
202 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
Enhanced PoP values were included across the highway 283 corridor
and eastward very early this morning as strong cape and weak shear
pulse type thunderstorms may continue to be forced along gusty
outflow winds from north central Kansas into central Kansas. The low
level jet was very weak judging by local RAP soundings. With this in
mind the PoPs will continue to be lowered in the far western
sections of the forecast area in the nowcast timeframe.
Later today and tonight brings yet a better overall chance for a few
severe storms with hail and damaging wind the primary threat through
the evening hours. By Friday a synoptic scale wave from the west
crosses the Rockies onto the High Plains region in an equally or
more unstable airmass than previous days. Much of western Kansas
appears in the warm sector for this event, but a warm front appears
to be a focus for all severe weather modes farther north (mainly
north of Interstate 70). Surface based thunderstorms should develop
in vicinity of the surface low/dryline with a few supercells
starting the beginning of a busy severe weather episode through the
evening on Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
Medium range models indicate an upper level trough of low pressure
shifting east out of the Western High Plains into the Central Plains
Saturday increasing the likelihood for thunderstorms from the
Dakotas southward into portions of Kansas. As this system moves
across the region, an associated upper level jet is projected to
dip southeast across the Central Rockies, nosing into the panhandles
of Oklahoma and Texas placing a left exit region across western
Kansas. Meanwhile, ample low level moisture will continue to pool
ahead of a surface trough edging eastward across western Kansas.
Favorable dynamic support aloft combined with increased convergence
near the surface will set the stage for possible thunderstorms
across central and more eastern portions of southwest Kansas
potentially through early Saturday afternoon. Another round of
storms may be possible across south central Kansas Saturday evening
as the aforementioned surface trough is expected to stall out
somewhere generally across the area before washing out. Drier
conditions are then expected through Monday as the flow aloft
weakens while becoming more zonal.
The next significant chance for precip will return Monday night into
Tuesday as a closed off upper level low develops and strengthens
while pushing eastward along the U.S. border in southern Canada. As
the closed off low deepens, an attendant cold front will push
southeast into and across Western Kansas Monday before stalling
out somewhere in the vicinity of the Oklahoma border. Thunderstorms
will be possible across central and portions of southwest Kansas
Monday night, with the best chances in vicinity of the boundary as a
strong upper level jet core dives southeast into the Central Plains.
The intensity of any storm development will be dependent on how far
south the upper level jet reaches before lifting northeast.
Temperatures are expected to be near normal Saturday even as a
surface trough moves through western Kansas turning the low level
flow more northerly. Slightly cooler air will filter southward into
the region limiting highs to the upper 80s(F) to near 90F Saturday
afternoon. Widespread 90s(F) are likely Sunday as lee side troughing
strengthens across eastern Colorado helping to draw warmer air back
north into the region. Slightly cooler temperatures are likely once
again Monday as a weak cold front pushes through western Kansas by
early to mid afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
VFR conditions are expected into Friday. South winds of 20-30kt will
decrease a bit after dark, then pickup again after 12Z. A few
widely scattered thunderstorms may develop after 00Z, some may be
severe with locally heavy rainfall if they develop.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 90 67 90 / 20 20 30 40
GCK 67 94 66 91 / 20 40 30 30
EHA 66 97 64 93 / 20 30 20 10
LBL 68 95 67 92 / 20 40 20 30
HYS 69 89 69 90 / 20 20 60 50
P28 70 90 71 89 / 20 20 20 50
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Kruse
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1216 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
...Updated for Short Term...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
Enhanced PoP values were included across the highway 283 corridor
and eastward very early this morning as strong cape and weak shear
pulse type thunderstorms may continue to be forced along gusty
outflow winds from north central Kansas into central Kansas. The low
level jet was very weak judging by local RAP soundings. With this in
mind the PoPs will continue to be lowered in the far western
sections of the forecast area in the nowcast timeframe.
Later today and tonight brings yet a better overall chance for a few
severe storms with hail and damaging wind the primary threat through
the evening hours. By Friday a synoptic scale wave from the west
crosses the Rockies onto the High Plains region in an equally or
more unstable airmass than previous days. Much of western Kansas
appears in the warm sector for this event, but a warm front appears
to be a focus for all severe weather modes farther north (mainly
north of Interstate 70). Surface based thunderstorms should develop
in vicinity of the surface low/dryline with a few supercells
starting the beginning of a busy severe weather episode through the
evening on Friday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
Remnants of the upper wave may still be moving out of the area on
Saturday, with a conditionally unstable airmass still in place.
Regeneration of convection cold easily occur on outflow boundaries
anytime during the day, but most likely over central KS, as the
pattern supports north winds in the far west. At the same time, the
wave could move through faster, clearing the area of any significant
widespread severe threat. By late in the weekend, the upper pattern
will evolve such that the westerly jet will drift into the northern
tier of states with a closed attendant low developing over central
Canadian provinces. The westerly height gradient will support lee
troughing and moderate southerly winds over western Kansas Sunday
and Sunday night. Thunderstorms could be possible again buy Sunday
afternoon if the surface front modeled by the EC/GFS is able to move
through the areas earlier than forecast. However in absence of any
convective rain cooled air, temperatures will continue on the
warming trend through the weekend with only the relative greenness
form recent rains to keep temperatures from soaring to 100 or more
degrees by Sunday.
During the Monday through Wednesday time period, a strong upper
level low pressure system over southern Canada will move into the
eastern Canadian provinces while a high pressure ridge moves into
western North America. The GFS and ECMWF show a a dry cold frontal
passage across western Kansas during the day Monday. By Monday
evening the front stalls out over northern Oklahoma which looks
reasonable given the upper ridge over the northern and central
Rockies and northwesterly flow aloft into the northern and central
Plains. The models show precipitation developing Monday night as
southerly flow at 850 millibars increases across the southern into
the central Plains and isentropic lift develops over the frontal
boundary. This pattern should continue into the middle part of the
week and provide additional chances for MCS development off the
eastern slopes of the Rockies into western Kansas. Later in the
week, the models show the upper ridge building eastward into the
central part of North America which should bring drier conditions
along with warmer temperatures to western Kansas for the 4th of July
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
VFR conditions are expected into Friday. South winds of 20-30kt will
decrease a bit after dark, then pickup again after 12Z. A few
widely scattered thunderstorms may develop after 00Z, some may be
severe with locally heavy rainfall if they develop.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 90 67 92 67 / 10 30 10 30
GCK 92 67 93 66 / 10 20 20 30
EHA 94 66 94 64 / 20 30 10 10
LBL 94 68 96 67 / 10 20 10 20
HYS 90 68 91 69 / 40 30 20 60
P28 90 68 92 71 / 100 30 10 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard/Russell
AVIATION...Kruse
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1113 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2014
AS OF 230 AM CDT...130 AM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA WERE
OVERCAST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 60S WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 REMAINING IN THE LOW 70S. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. BASED ON WSR-88D RADAR DATA...THERE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
AREA...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE FED A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. A MESO-LOW WAS ALSO INDICATED...CENTERED BETWEEN MCCOOK
NEBRASKA AND OBERLIN KANSAS...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 20 MPH. A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OUR MAIN WEATHER
MAKER...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.
FOR TODAY...YET ANOTHER MESSY CONVECTIVE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. MORNING CONVECTION MAY STILL BE
ONGOING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEFORE ALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
HEADS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION. A COOLER... STABLE AIRMASS IS
ANTICIPATED AS A RESULT OF THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. THEREFORE...
BELIEVE THAT OUR AREA SHOULD BE DEVOID OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. LATEST SIGNALS FROM THE HRRR MODEL...ONE
THAT HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...INDICATES THIS TREND SO HAVE WEIGHTED TODAYS FORECAST HEAVILY
TOWARDS THE HRRR. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY DOWN COMPARED
TO FORECAST GUIDANCE AND MAY NEED TO LOWER SOME MORE DEEPENING ON
REMAINING CLOUD COVER. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
A LEE TROUGH FORMS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AIRMASS
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVER EAST COLORADO AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. YET ANOTHER WEAKER...SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
OVERALL...TRENDED POPS LOWER FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
BASED ON THE IDEA A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL PLAGUE STORM
DEVELOPMENT. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...UP TO 60 KTS POSSIBLE...DEVELOPS.
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.
FOR TOMORROW...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MUCH LARGER SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT...POSSIBLY AN OUTBREAK. THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA. A DRYLINE SHOULD SETUP...
INITIALLY ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER BEFORE SLIDING SLIGHTLY
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS WITH RECENT DRYLINE EVENTS...
BELIEVE THAT A FEW MODELS ARE PULLING THE DRYLINE TOO FAR EAST TOO
QUICKLY. INSTEAD...DRYLINE SHOULD BE HELD FURTHER WEST BY A LEE
TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OVER. HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLOWER NAM AND ECMWF WITH DRYLINE
POSITIONING. BY AFTERNOON...A CAP SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY SUPPRESSED
UNTIL 21Z...AROUND 3 PM MDT. AS THIS HAPPENS... INSTABILITY BUILDS
UP AND LEADS TO EXPLOSIVE STORM GROWTH. SBCAPE OF 3000+ J/KG AND
850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM...0-6KM BULK SHEAR UP TO 50 KTS
AND 0-3 KM HELICITY OF 100-250 M2/S2 INDICATE THAT ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE. SOME LARGE HAIL MAY BE SIGNIFICANT...
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF A BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE.
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...QUITE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN. A
COLD FRONT IS FORCED DOWN BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY IN ADDITION TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A FEW STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTON
AND GRAHAM COUNTIES DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2014
THE EXTENDED WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND AN
UPPER LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH FLOW BECOMING
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED. SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT AND WILL RESULT IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ON MONDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY ALONG WITH MONDAY AS NO
STRONG SIGNALS ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE REALLY COME TOGETHER FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
SETS UP OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH THE WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS STILL NOT
VERY HIGH DUE TO TIMING OF DISTURBANCES AND GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND SURFACE FEATURES...SO WOULD EXPECT CHANGES
AS EACH DAY APPROACHES THE SHORT TERM.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S AND WILL COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT THU JUN 26 2014
BREEZY SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO. WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE SURFACE
TROUGH...WITH STORM MOTIONS TAKING THEM NORTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT...PROBABILITY OF IMPACTING EITHER KGLD OR KMCK IS
RATHER LOW.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...ALW
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1150 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
ANOTHER MCS/MCV DEVELOPING OFF THE SE TX/SW LA COASTAL WATERS AGAIN
LATE THIS MORNING...WITH LIMITED CONVECTION INLAND. LIKE YESTERDAY...LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS CONVECTION FORMING/SPREADING N AND
NE ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PLACED TEMPO GROUP FOR THE BETTER CHANCES OF TSRA & MVFR
CEILING/VSBY FROM 20-24Z THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA FORMING ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRI...POSSIBLY
SPREADING INLAND LATER IN THE MORNING. TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES
ARE ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC WITH THESE TYPE OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS.
DML
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
AVIATION...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT ALL BUT KAEX WHERE IFR IS
CURRENTLY REPORTED. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STABILIZED AIRMASS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING...HELD OFF MENTIONING THUNDER UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAIN...THIS MESHES WELL
WITH 4KM SPC WRF AND LATEST HRRR RUNS. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
DURING THE OVERNIGHT ONCE THIS CONVECTION COMES TO AN END.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WV IMAGERY/UA ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION
BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE ERN GULF AND ANOTHER TO THE
WEST OFF THE BAJA COAST...WITH ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE ACRS PORTIONS
OF THE WRN GULF. KLCH RADAR A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE TONIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT...BUT STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACRS CNTL/WRN LA AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE TO THE SW.
MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE WEST ACRS THE NRN GULF
KEEPING LT SELY WINDS OVER THE REGION.
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WET DAY ON TAP AS THE PERSISTENT WEAKNESS/TROF ALOFT REMAINS
OVER THE REGION. ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE FUNNELED OVER THE
REGION BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE ERN GULF AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROF. PRECIP WATER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV 2
INCHES. THE ACTIVITY TO THE SW WILL SPREAD NE THIS
MORNING...REACHING OUR AREA BY EARLY TO MID MORNING. AS DAYTIME
HEATING INTERACTS WITH THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD BY AFTN. AGAIN
ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS WELL. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LESS THAN TODAY AND YESTERDAY AS THE TROF
ALOFT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
WEAKENING TROF/SHEAR AXIS LIFTS NORTH AND UPPER RIDGING BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED ACRS THE AREA. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION AS IT MOVES WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...LIMITING ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LIMIT ANY
WARMUP TODAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE 80S.
A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER TROF WEAKENS AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BEGINS TO DECREASE. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE SUN WILL BRING AFTN
HIGHS BACK TO NEAR OR ABV NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
(OR POSSIBLY MIDDLE) 90S.
MARINE...
SLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES OVER THE
ERN GULF CONTINUES TO RIDGE WEST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. LOW
PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE WRN ZONES TONIGHT (AND ARE HEADLINED IN THE CWF PRODUCT).
SCEC SHOULD GRADUALLY EXTEND EAST THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH MARGINAL
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 75 87 76 91 77 / 40 60 30 30 20
KBPT 76 88 77 90 78 / 40 60 30 30 20
KAEX 73 87 73 90 74 / 40 60 20 50 10
KLFT 74 87 76 90 76 / 40 50 30 40 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM
CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
349 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SEASONABLY WARM W/ A TOUCH LESS HUMIDITY...ESP AWAY FM THE CST
THIS AFTN. SCT-BKN CU COVERS THE FA. WATCHING ISOLD CNVTN OVR
PORTIONS OF HIGHER TERRAIN IN WCNTRL VA...AND INVOF ERN ALBEMARLE
SOUND. WILL HAVE SLGT CHC POPS FOR NW AND FAR SE COUNTIES IN FA
THROUGH MID EVE. RUC EARLIER TDA SUGGESTED THAT ISOLD PCPN COULD
LINGER ACRS CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF FA OVRNGT. THE MDL HAS SINCE
LESSENED THAT PROB...THOUGH WON`T RULE OUT ONE OR TWO STRAY SHRAS
HANGING ON UNTIL AFT MDNGT. ANOTHER CONCERN IS PSBL DEVELOPMENT OF
AREAS OF LO CLDS AND/OR FG INVOF SE VA/NE NC WHERE DRYING/LWRG OF
DEWPTS HAS BEEN LIMITED/NOT TAKEN PLACE SO FAR TDA. OTRW...CLR-
PCLDY THROUGH OVRNGT HRS W/ LO TEMPS FM THE M60S TO L70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST RUN (12Z/26) OF GFS RMNS MOST AGRESSIVE W/ SPREAD OF
MOISTURE INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW BEGINNING FRI AND CONTG THROUGH
WKND. WILL RMN CAUTIOUS ABOUT RAISING POPS TOO HI AND/OR TOO FAR TO
THE E W/ MEAN RIDGE ALOFT SITUATED INVOF ERN CONUS. SFC HI PRES
XPCD TO PROTECT THE CST FM ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLD PCPN (ESP THIS
WKND). WILL HAVE SOME INCRS (MNLY DIURNAL OR AFTN/EVE HRS) IN POPS
ACRS INLAND AREAS (ESP ALG-W OF I 95) HEADING THROUGH SUN. HI
TEMPS EACH DAY MNLY FM THE M/80S (WELL) INLAND TO 80 TO 85F CLOSER
TO THE CST (LOCALLY U70S RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES. LO TEMPS
EACH NGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL HAVE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE IS SOME
UPPER LEVEL TROFING DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON THURSDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF QUESTIONS ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FRONT. WILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH POTENTIALLY BETTER CHANCES LATER IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT-BKN CU OVR THE FA THIS AFTN W/ ANY CIGS 4-6KFT. XPCG
DISSIPATING CU THIS EVE. ISOLD STMS FM THE MTNS MAY TAKE A RUN AT
KRIC THIS EVE...AND AN ISOLD STM MAY DEVELOP INVOF KECG. CLR-PCLDY
OVRNGT. LINGERING MOISTURE OVR SE VA/NE NC MAY RESULT IN SCT-BKN
ST OR PATCHY FOG LT TNGT/EARLY FRI. ISOLD TO SCT SHRAS/TSTMS PSBL
EACH DAY FM FRI THROUGH SUN (ESP FM ABT 18Z TO 04Z).
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE STRETCHING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS TROF WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTH
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DEVELOP AN EAST FLOW ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY. WINDS
REMAIN UNDER SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE SOME HIGHER
SEAS ALONG THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE LONGER ONSHORE WIND
FETCH.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
345 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SEASONABLY WARM W/ A TOUCH LESS HUMIDITY...ESP AWAY FM THE CST
THIS AFTN. SCT-BKN CU COVERS THE FA. WATCHING ISOLD CNVTN OVR
PORTIONS OF HIGHER TERRAIN IN WCNTRL VA...AND INVOF ERN ALBEMARLE
SOUND. WILL HAVE SLGT CHC POPS FOR NW AND FAR SE COUNTIES IN FA
THROUGH MID EVE. RUC EARLIER TDA SUGGESTED THAT ISOLD PCPN COULD
LINGER ACRS CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF FA OVRNGT. THE MDL HAS SINCE
LESSENED THAT PROB...THOUGH WON`T RULE OUT ONE OR TWO STRAY SHRAS
HANGING ON UNTIL AFT MDNGT. ANOTHER CONCERN IS PSBL DEVELOPMENT OF
AREAS OF LO CLDS AND/OR FG INVOF SE VA/NE NC WHERE DRYING/LWRG OF
DEWPTS HAS BEEN LIMITED/NOT TAKEN PLACE SO FAR TDA. OTRW...CLR-
PCLDY THROUGH OVRNGT HRS W/ LO TEMPS FM THE M60S TO L70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST RUN (12Z/26) OF GFS RMNS MOST AGRESSIVE W/ SPREAD OF
MOISTURE INTO THE RGN FM THE SSW BEGINNING FRI AND CONTG THROUGH
WKND. WILL RMN CAUTIOUS ABOUT RAISING POPS TOO HI AND/OR TOO FAR TO
THE E W/ MEAN RIDGE ALOFT SITUATED INVOF ERN CONUS. SFC HI PRES
XPCD TO PROTECT THE CST FM ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLD PCPN (ESP THIS
WKND). WILL HAVE SOME INCRS (MNLY DIURNAL OR AFTN/EVE HRS) IN POPS
ACRS INLAND AREAS (ESP ALG-W OF I 95) HEADING THROUGH SUN. HI
TEMPS EACH DAY MNLY FM THE M/80S (WELL) INLAND TO 80 TO 85F CLOSER
TO THE CST (LOCALLY U70S RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES. LO TEMPS
EACH NGT FM THE M60S TO ARND 70F.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE WITH TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL HAVE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE IS SOME
UPPER LEVEL TROFING DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON THURSDAY. STILL
PLENTY OF QUESTIONS ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FRONT. WILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH POTENTIALLY BETTER CHANCES LATER IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT. SW WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHFIT TO THE NW THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...THE FLOW WILL TURN NW AND SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR INTO
THE AREA ALLOWING CLOUDS TO CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER NE
NC...SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KECG THU AFTN.
OUTLOOK FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE STRETCHING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THIS TROF WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT NORTH
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DEVELOP AN EAST FLOW ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY. WINDS
REMAIN UNDER SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE SOME HIGHER
SEAS ALONG THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE LONGER ONSHORE WIND
FETCH.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
127 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS MID-UPR LVL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS TO GENERALLY STAY WEST OF
THE CWA TODAY. STRATOCU DECK AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS
KEPT MIN TEMPS A BIT WARMER (UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S) OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS OVER THE WEST HALF ARE A
BIT COOLER (LOWER 40S) UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH KENTON EVEN REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 30S.
TODAY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
FCST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRES
RIDGE ALONG WITH DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW STRATOCU DECK TO ERODE
OVER EAST HALF BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT WITH LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING OFF BOTH LAKE SUPERIOR AND
LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO GENERALLY REACH THE MID 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WITH COOLER 60S READINGS NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES SHORELINES.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST LATER TONIGHT
ALLOWING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES A BIT HIGHER THAN
THIS MORNING/S READINGS DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW OF THE
TYPICAL INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL COLD SPOTS COULD REACH INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE LOWER 50S
MIN TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR WEST NEAR IRONWOOD...WHERE
DOWNSLOPING SRLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATE SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THERE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
FRI...A TROUGH MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE PLAINS AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN SW MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TOWARD UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR MAY SLOW THE PROGRESS
OF ANY SHOWERS INTO THE AREA WITH THE DEVELOPING WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT
PATTERN. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO EDGE TOWARD THE WEST BY LATE
FRI FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. THE GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA BUT IF A WEAK
SHRTWV MOVES INTO THE AREA SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP FROM WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO THE KEWEENAW OR FAR WEST. HOWEVER...ONLY LOW END
CHANCE EXPECTED...PER MDLS CONSENSUS.
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AS THE WRN TROUGH EDGES FARTHER TO THE EAST AND
STRENGTHENING MOISTURE ADVECTION BOOSTS INSTABILITY OVER THE
AREA...PCPN CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST HALF BUT REMAIN
HIGHER TO THE WEST OF UPPER MI. THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHRTWVS BRUSHING THE
AREA IN THE SSW FLOW COULD SET OFF A FEW ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
THE REGION...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF UPPER MI...BUT WITH TIMING/POSITION
REMAINING UNCERTAIN JUSTIFYING CONTINUED CHANCE POPS. OVERALL MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO DELAY THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE PCPN.
SUN INTO MON...EXPECT HIGHER PCPN CHANCES AS MODELS HINT AT A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHRTWVS AFFECTING THE AREA AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
HEIGHT FALLS MOVE INTO THE NRN LAKES. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS
ALSO EXPECTED WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AOA 40 KNOTS AND ML/MU CAPE
VALUES AOA 1500 J/KG.
TUE...LOW LEVEL CYCLCONIC FLOW AND SHRTWVS ON THE SRN SIDE OF THE
MID LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH NRN ONTARIO WILL KEEP POTENTIAL FOR SCT
-SHRA GOING. COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BY WED WITH
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AT ALL
TAF SITES. ONLY ISSUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE THE DIURNAL
CU THAT HAS DEVELOPED...MAINLY AFFECTING THE KSAW/KIWD TAF SITES.
TONIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL HELP CREATE A TEMPERATURE
INVERSION TONIGHT AS WARM AIR PUSHES IN ALOFT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT...MAINLY OVER THE
KCMX/KSAW TAF SITES. KIWD MAY SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF FOG AS HIGH TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN...HELPING TO REDUCE THE OVERALL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND INCREASE TO NEARLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CEILINGS MAY BECOME AN
ISSUE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO MIX
OUT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...LESS THAN 25 KTS. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE AREA...YET WIND SPEEDS WILL
STILL REMAIN 25 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
330 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SFC ANALYSIS PUTS A WMFNT ORIENTED WNW-ESE FROM
NW SD TO THE SW CORNER OF MN TO SE IA. THIS FNT WILL SLOWLY LIFT N
ACRS THE AREA TNGT INTO TMRW...WITH IT BEING THE LEADING EDGE OF NOT
ONLY WARMER AIR BUT ALSO MUCH MORE MOIST AIR. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCRS IN LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS RATHER
WEAK...BUT SHIFTING FROM ZONAL TO A MORE SW ORIGINATION...MEANING
THAT MORE VIGOROUS MID- AND UPR-LVL SHORTWAVES WILL ARRIVE FROM A
DIGGING NEGATIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE ROCKIES THRU TMRW.
ALREADY SEEING SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS AS A DISSIPATING CAP HAS
ALLOWED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN SWRN MN...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
SFC WMFNT. THESE STORMS HAVE VERY LITTLE N-NE MOTION BUT CONTAIN
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SO IT IS FEASIBLE TO HAVE PLENTY OF RAINFALL
RECEIVED FROM THESE SLOW-MOVING STORMS. THOUGH GENERALLY UP TO A
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THE STORMS...LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
OF OVER AN INCH IS POSSIBLE THRU THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE
OVERABUNDANCE OF INSTABILITY WITH WEAK SHEAR ALOFT SPELLS THE
POTENTIAL OF TALLER/STRONGER STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR
MICROBURST-TYPE WINDS THRU THIS EVENING. ONCE THESE STORMS DISSIPATE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...LOW- AND MID-LVL STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME LIGHTER SHWRS OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO A MODEST MIDLVL SHORTWAVE RIDING NEWD IN THE FLOW...BUT NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...THE MAIN CONCERN
BECOMES LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER WRN WI WHERE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE CAUGHT UNDER THE NIGHTLY
INVERSION. AFTER DAYBREAK...AND THE WMFNT LIFTS N OF THE
REGION...WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE S AND BECOME BREEZY AS
ENHANCED LOW- AND MID-LVL JETTING BECOMES BETTER MIXED TO THE
SFC...MAKING FOR BREEZY/GUSTY CONDS. AS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP
ON FRI...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW STRAGGLERS IN THE MORNING...THE
CWFA WILL BE MOSTLY IF NOT ENTIRELY DEVOID OF PRECIP UNTIL THE ATMOS
LOOKS TO RELOAD FOR THE AFTN AND PARTICULARLY FOR THE EVE HRS AS THE
CWFA FINDS ITSELF SQUARELY WITHIN A WARM SECTOR OF THE WMFNT WELL TO
THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY AND A CDFNT LINGERING OVER THE DAKOTAS.
COVERAGE WILL BE BETTER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...BUT STILL SCATTERED
IN NATURE WITH AGAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH ISOLD
SEVERE...OWING TO PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES...MUCAPES REACHING 3000
J/KG...AND WEAK BULK SHEAR LEADING TO POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND
GUSTS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS ON TAP FOR THIS WEEKEND...WITH HEAVY RAIN THE
PRIMARY THREAT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS ROUND OF
CONVECTION POSES THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
COOLER DRIER AIR WILL MOVE FOLLOW THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IDENTIFIED A POWERFUL JET
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH NEARLY SYMMETRIC
CYCLONIC/ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE +150KT
SPEED MAX. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS LINEAR JET STREAK TOGETHER WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OWING TO THE SHARP CURVATURE BETWEEN THE DEEPENING TROUGH
AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS FRIDAY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL THETA_E ADVECTION WITHIN
THE 925-850MB LAYER SHOULD SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN MN. HOWEVER...THE EASTWARD EXTEND OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE
LIMITED SINCE THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT IN BOTH THE
MEAN WIND...AND LOW LEVEL JET. THE REASON THE LOW LEVEL JET NEVER
VEERS OVERNIGHT IS THE AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING
SURFACE CYCLONE OVER NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...BUT THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
UPPER MINNESOTA RIVER AND RED RIVER VALLEYS.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT AT THIS TIME A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIP...WITH A FEW
ISOLATED LOCATIONS PICKING UP 2 TO 3 INCHES. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
LOW LEVEL JET NEARLY EQUAL AND OPPOSITE TO THE MEAN WIND
PROFILE...SO STORMS MAY BE VERY SLOW MOVING. IN ADDITION...FREEZING
LEVELS IN EXCESS OF 13KFT AGL TOGETHER WITH PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 2IN
RANGE WILL SUPPORT RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2-3IN PER HOUR. FORTUNATELY
THERE IS NOT A WELL ESTABLISHED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...SO THE
CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE FOCUSED IN ONE PARTICULAR AREA. THIS
LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT LOCATION...BUT HOPEFULLY WILL LEND
ITSELF TO A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION AS OPPOSED TO BEING
FOCUSED IN ONE PARTICULAR RIVER BASIN.
THIS PRECIP WILL LIFT EAST NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A DRY
SLOT DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE
WINTER...THIS WOULD LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND BRING AN END TO THE
PRECIP...BUT IN THE SUMMER...THIS DRY SLOT WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY
LAYER INSTABILITY TO BUILD BENEATH 7-8C/KM H700-500 LAPSE
RATES...SETTING THE STAGE FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG IS EXPECTED...AS DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 40-50KTS IN RESPONSE THE UPPER LEVEL JET
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...SUPERCELLS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE PRIMARY MODE OF CONVECTION. THE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ARE FAIRLY
LINEAR IN THE LOWEST 1KM...BUT RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS WILL BE ABLE
TO GENERATE AROUND 100 TO 150M2/S2 OF 1KM SRH. 3KM HODOGRAPHS HAVE
200 TO 300M2/S2 OF SRH. LCLS MAY BE THE WILD CARD FOR TORNADIC
POTENTIAL...BUT VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE LIKELY WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS. MEANWHILE...30 TO 40KTS OF 0-3KM WESTERLY SHEAR
SHOULD LEAD TO UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINEAR COMPLEX CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
LOOKING AHEAD...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES COULD SPARK SHOWERS AND NON
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME WENT WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
TRICKY FCST THIS SET DUE TO CONVECTION UNCERTAINTIES...BOTH IN
TERMS OF TIMING AND LOCATION. SHORT TERM MODELS /NAMELY HRRR AND
HOPWRF/ INDICATE A CLUSTER OF STORMS TO SHIFT ACRS CENTRAL-ERN MN
BUT DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING WI IN THE 21Z-04Z TIME PERIOD THIS
EVENING. THOUGH COVERAGE WILL NOT BE MUCH...ANY STORM THAT DOES
IMPACT THE TERMINALS WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH TO DROP FLIGHT
CATEGORY INTO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR. BEST CHCS FOR SEEING
CONVECTION...AND IT WOULD INCLUDE THUNDER...WOULD BE ALL MN TAF
SITES...WITH MUCH LESSER CHCS AT THE WI TAF SITES SO HAVE LEFT
THOSE DRY. SINCE TIMING IS QUESTIONABLE...HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS
FOR LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE. MORE GENERIC SHWRS LOOK LIKELY
FOR WRN-CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT BEFORE MORE TRANQUIL CONDS DEVELOP
DURG THE DAY TMRW WITH VFR CONDS. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BUT BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK.
THE WI TAF SITES MAY WELL AGAIN BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO EARLY MRNG FOG
AND/OR LOW STRATUS SO HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS THERE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THAT POSSIBILITY...WITH THE CAVEAT THE TIMING COULD BE LONGER.
KMSP...HAVE KEPT CONDS AS VFR THROUGHOUT THIS FCST PKG...BUT AM
CONCERNED ABOUT LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVE WITH A
POTENTIAL CLUSTER OR LINE OF TSTMS THAT MAY MAKE ITS WAY THRU THE
MSP AREA. SHORT-TERM MODELS SHOW IT NICELY WHILE THE MORE BROADER-
SCALE MODELS DO NOT...AND OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE IN THE
20-30 PERCENT AREA...BUT THE IMPACTS OF SAID TSTMS WOULD LIKELY BE
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND POSSIBLY IFR. KMPX RADAR ALREADY SHOWING
SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER WRN MN AND NRN IA...DRIFTING NEWD...
SO TIMING OF 23Z-03Z MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED EARLIER. WILL
MONITOR AND AMEND AS NEEDED. GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDS
WILL PREVAIL AND AM NOT XPCTG FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO IMPACT KMSP.
OVERNIGHT AND AFTER DAYBREAK...PRECIP CHCS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION
OF ANY ADDITIONAL SHWRS AND WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY MIDDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
WINDS SSW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
127 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS DEAL WITH ONSET OF ANY TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY
AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS
AFTN/OVERNIGHT. INITIALLY... FOG/STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN DEVELOPING
ACROSS WESTERN WI OVER THE PAST HR OR TWO BASED ON THE LATEST
VIS/FOG IMAGERY. LATEST HOPWRF HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SPREAD OF
THE LOWER CLDS/FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR EC MN/WC WI WHICH
CURRENTLY SEEMS REASONABLE THRU 15Z. ELSEWHERE...ONLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THRU NOON.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SHIFT TO THE SE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS SAID BEFORE...
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING
AS MLCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ARND 1000 J/KG BY NOON.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST RAP HAS TRENDED WITH DRIER AIR MIXING IN THE
LOWEST 1 KM DEVELOPING BY NOON. THIS WILL ALLOW MLCAPE VALUES TO
HOLD OR EVEN FALL DURING THE AFTN. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A
CAP...SO DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS/TCU/CBS ARE LIKELY. BUT THE
OVERALL TREND IS ONLY ISOLD SHRA/TSRA FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH/SW
OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY. NORTH AND NE OF THIS MOISTURE
GRADIENT...ONLY FAIR WX CUMULUS IS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE OR NO CHC
OF PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...IT SEEMS THAT ANY SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
AIR SUPPORT/SFC FEATURES OR LLJ. THE BEST CHC/S DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
WC/SW MN AS THE THETA-E RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MN/SD/ND BORDER
AND THE INCREASE IN THE LLJ OVERNIGHT. TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL BE
MUCH WARMER WITH 80S LIKELY...ONLY CONCERN IS HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS BLOCKING FULL ISOLATION. TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE MUCH
MORE HUMID WITH DEW PTS RISING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...SO TEMPS
WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
MUCH OF THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FROM NEAR THE MN/DAKOTA
BORDERS WESTWARD ON FRIDAY. A MERIDIONAL FLOW WITH STRONG RIDGING
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD SUPPRESS MUCH ACTIVITY FOR THE DAY A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN AND +25C 925 TEMPS SHOULD FACILITATE HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK CAPPING...ALMOST
SUSPICIOUSLY WEAK...BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY
A FEW ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOP DURING THE STRONG HEATING AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY OF THE AFTERNOON. BY EVENING...THE LLJ WILL
STRENGTHEN AND VEER EASTWARD SPREADING THE ACTIVITY FROM THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE DAKOTAS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. SOME
WANING OF THIS ACTIVITY IS INDICATED BY MOST MODELS...SO KEPT POPS
LOW ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.
THE TROUGH WILL INCH EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY WITH VERY MOIST PWATS AND THE STRONGEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING IT. PWATS WILL BE BETWEEN 2 AND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. A DEEP WARM LAYER WITH FREEZING
LEVELS OF 13KFT ARE EXPECTED. BUFKIT MBE VELOCITIES LESS THAN 5
KTS ARE TROUBLE FOR NEARLY STATIONARY OR BACK BUILDING
THUNDERSTORMS. GFS AND NAM DIFFER A BIT ON MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THE NAM HAS A MUCH MORE EFFICIENT AND MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING
WHILE THE GFS IS STEEPER IN THE MID LEVELS AND LOOKS MORE
CONVECTIVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THE NAM IS CONTAMINATED BY ONGOING
PRECIP AND APPEARS MORE EFFICIENT THAN IT SHOULD BE.
THEREFORE...SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BUT THE WRITING ON THE WALL
IS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. INCREASED POPS
TO CATEGORICAL WITHIN THE TROUGH BY AFTERNOON...AND INCHED THE
POPS EASTWARD WITH THE TROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EMERGES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND JET EASTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE CYCLONE PARKED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. FALLING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
ATOP A HOT AND HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS /HIGHS 85-90F AND DEW
POINTS 65-70F/ WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES DURING
PEAK HEATING...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER
MINNESOTA AND PERSIST WELL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OVER IOWA AND
WISCONSIN. STRENGTHENING 500 MB WINDS WITH SPEED MAXES OF 70-80 KT
SUNDAY EVENING AND A LOOPING HODOGRAPH THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL
BRING SUPERCELLS INITIALLY CAPABLE OF ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING TORNADOES...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY A
WIND DAMAGE/LARGE HAIL THREAT AS WINDS BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL
DURING THE LATE EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE BEST CHANCES
OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY HAS SEEN SO FAR THIS
YEAR.
THE SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY ACROSS WISCONSIN
BEFORE THE DRY SLOT PUSHES IN BY LATE MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE PLEASANT...ALBEIT BREEZY.
FOR MIDWEEK...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE BREEZY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL MN AS THE CORE OF THE COLD MID LEVEL AIR ARRIVES.
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS FOR LATE WEEK WITH MODELS
SHOWING A WARMING TREND BY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
TRICKY FCST THIS SET DUE TO CONVECTION UNCERTAINTIES...BOTH IN
TERMS OF TIMING AND LOCATION. SHORT TERM MODELS /NAMELY HRRR AND
HOPWRF/ INDICATE A CLUSTER OF STORMS TO SHIFT ACRS CENTRAL-ERN MN
BUT DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING WI IN THE 21Z-04Z TIME PERIOD THIS
EVENING. THOUGH COVERAGE WILL NOT BE MUCH...ANY STORM THAT DOES
IMPACT THE TERMINALS WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH TO DROP FLIGHT
CATEGORY INTO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR. BEST CHCS FOR SEEING
CONVECTION...AND IT WOULD INCLUDE THUNDER...WOULD BE ALL MN TAF
SITES...WITH MUCH LESSER CHCS AT THE WI TAF SITES SO HAVE LEFT
THOSE DRY. SINCE TIMING IS QUESTIONABLE...HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS
FOR LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE. MORE GENERIC SHWRS LOOK LIKELY
FOR WRN-CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT BEFORE MORE TRANQUIL CONDS DEVELOP
DURG THE DAY TMRW WITH VFR CONDS. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BUT BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY AFTER DAYBREAK.
THE WI TAF SITES MAY WELL AGAIN BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO EARLY MRNG FOG
AND/OR LOW STRATUS SO HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS THERE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THAT POSSIBILITY...WITH THE CAVEAT THE TIMING COULD BE LONGER.
KMSP...HAVE KEPT CONDS AS VFR THROUGHOUT THIS FCST PKG...BUT AM
CONCERNED ABOUT LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVE WITH A
POTENTIAL CLUSTER OR LINE OF TSTMS THAT MAY MAKE ITS WAY THRU THE
MSP AREA. SHORT-TERM MODELS SHOW IT NICELY WHILE THE MORE BROADER-
SCALE MODELS DO NOT...AND OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE IN THE
20-30 PERCENT AREA...BUT THE IMPACTS OF SAID TSTMS WOULD LIKELY BE
INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND POSSIBLY IFR. KMPX RADAR ALREADY SHOWING
SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER WRN MN AND NRN IA...DRIFTING NEWD...
SO TIMING OF 23Z-03Z MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED EARLIER. WILL
MONITOR AND AMEND AS NEEDED. GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDS
WILL PREVAIL AND AM NOT XPCTG FOG OR LOW STRATUS TO IMPACT KMSP.
OVERNIGHT AND AFTER DAYBREAK...PRECIP CHCS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION
OF ANY ADDITIONAL SHWRS AND WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY MIDDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
WINDS SSW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
338 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 338 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
Quite a lot to talk about in the short term as several features of
interest will impact the Central Plains/Lwr Missouri Rvr Vly through
the weekend. The first of these is currently on the doorstep so to
speak with a slow moving MCV now positioned over east-central Kansas.
In reality...this feature has been quite impressive in that
this system has maintained itself through much of the day with
regional radars now showing a weak leading line of convection
stretched from near Emporia south to the Kansas/Oklahoma state line.
Recent trends over the past hour or so have indicated the feature is
beginning to decay...however will maintain chc pops across the far
western zones through the remainder of the afternoon. Further
east...very little activity expected through the remainder of the
afternoon however the HRRR continues to advertise some weak "pulsy"
type convection this afternoon and thus will maintain an iso mention
for areas primarly east of the route 65 corridor.
Heading into tonight...numerous near term models to include the HRRR
and Rapid-Refresh suggest convection now firing over southeastern
Nebraska will gradually develop into an MCS before diving southeast
towards our area. As a result...have kept the highest pops over the
northern third of the CWA...with mainly an iso mention south of the
I-70 corridor. As was highlighted earlier today...limited to no
severe wx expected based on very poor wind fields aloft. Of greater
concern will be slow storm movement and possible heavy rainers with
any storms that do develop. PWAT values still remain high this
afternoon as verified on latest Blended TPW and percent of normal
satellite products. Overnight lows should fall into the upper 60s to
lower 70s for most locations.
Overnight convection should begin skirting off to the east on Friday
as main mid-level vort/MCV slowly tracks east with time. As a
result...have advertised an improving trend through the afternoon
from west to east as region becomes enveloped in increasing
subsidence behind departing feature. Another warm one expected with
highs likely climbing into the middle to upper 80s.
Things begin to heat up going into the weekend as large longwave
trough ejects east from the central Rockies. As this occurs...all
short term model guidance in reasonably good agreement that overall
trough orientation will take on a negative tilt...with pressure falls
immediately east of the Front Range resulting in pronounced moisture
and thermal advection north into the central Plains/Lwr Missouri Rvr
Vly. That said...upper winds also forecast to increase as a mid-level
speed max of roughly 45-50 kts rotates into the area during the
afternoon. This combined with a low-level jet of nearly equal
magnitude and a moderately unstable airmass should allow for favorable
conditions for developing convection by Saturday afternoon. One thing
of particular interest this afternoon is the model/s suggesting of
very steep mid-level lapse rates nosing into our area as well-
established EML plume propagates east off the southern
Rockies/Mexican Plateau. One caveat potentially going against robust
development will be the degree of destabalization as
overnight convection across the central High Plains may result in a
decent CI canopy aloft. Late afternoon activity could easily continue
into the overnight period as bulk shear vectors take on a more
"along- parallel" trajectory which could favor a gradual transition
to a linear based system. In any event...something to definately keep
an eye on as the event nears.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 338 PM CDT THU JUN
26 2014
Subsidence behind Saturday night`s shortwave should keep most of
Sunday dry aside from some potential lingering precipitation across
central Missouri early in the day. However, a secondary weak
shortwave rounding the base of a large upper trough to the north
could bring another round of storms into Iowa and northern Missouri
Sunday night. This activity should develop ahead of a weak front
which will drop into eastern Nebraska Sunday night and slowly sag
south of the I-70 corridor through Tuesday. This will bring
additional chances for thunderstorms to much of the region Monday
and Monday night before the cold front moves south of the forecast
area by Tuesday. Ahead of the front, a warm and humid airmass Sunday
and Monday could send heat index values into the upper 90s to near
100, and also provide quite a bit of instability for a few
potentially strong storms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
VFR conditions expected through the majority of the fcst cycle. A
complex of thunderstorms currently over central Kansas will continue
to slide east this afternoon. As this occurs...scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop across eastern Kansas and
western Missouri during the afternoon. For now...have elected to
maintain a VCTS mention at all sites beginning at 20z. As always...if
activity moves over any fcst terminals...brief restrictions to MVFR
or IFR will be possible. Beyond this...models suggest additional
showers and storms will move into the area after sunset as convection
across central and eastern Nebraska dives southeast into the area.
For now...the most likely terminal to have any impacts is STJ and a
VCTS mention will be maintained through the overnight period. SSE
winds between 10-15 kts will weaken to 5-10 kts overnight before
again increasing after 14z.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
400 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
A SLOWLY DEPARTING MCV IS CURRENTLY EXITING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON ITS BACK
EDGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
MCV...COULD SEE A BRIEF STRONG STORM...WITH PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 14.
AFTER THIS MCV EXITS THE REGION...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WHERE
SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND
SHIFT EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH GOOD
CLEARING TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY HAS BUILT ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...WITH 3000-4000 JOULES OF CAPE...AND
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION OF THIS
CONVECTION...DO EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS A 50 KT LLJ SETS UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...LIKED THE HRRR SOLUTION THE BEST...AND KEPT THE HIGHEST
POPS TO THE WEST PRIOR TO 06Z...SPREADING CHANCES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THEREAFTER.
FOR FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT WITH THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHIFTING EASTWARD AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT OF THIS TROUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT THE SHOT
FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...ALBEIT BETTER
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE AFT 00Z FRIDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURE WISE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH BOTH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY EXPECTED TO RUN VERY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO LIE WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE ROUGHLY FIRST 24 HRS.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD /FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODELS HAVE
SHOWN MUCH CHANGE WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS HAVING SHIFTED ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS...AND RIDGING OVER
THE E/SERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
EXTENDED FROM WRN ND DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TX. MAIN FOCUS IS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
OFF TO THE WEST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL EVENTUALLY
MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER LLJ...BUT VARY SOME ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE BETTER CONVERGENCE/LIFT...SO THE PLACEMENT OF ITS QPF VARIES A
BIT AS WELL. SAW NO REASON NOT TO KEEP THE LIKELY POPS GOING...BUT
DID HOLD BACK THE MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHER POPS UNTIL LATER IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE EVENING MAY SEE A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE ACTIVITY STILL WORKING ITS WAY EAST. WITH THE MODELS
COMBO OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND THE CWA REMAINS IN THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK
OUTLOOK. AS WE GET INTO SAT/SAT NIGHT...ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION...AS
WILL ANY REMNANT SFC BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND. MODELS HAVE PRECIP
LINGERING AROUND A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY...BUT WOULD THINK THERE
WOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK AT SOME POINT DURING THE MORNING...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE
WITH THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL AROUND...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF THE CWA.
THINK THAT ACTIVITY SATURDAY EVENING WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA...SO
AM KEEPING THE POST 06Z HOURS DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...AND KEPT THOSE DRY CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BY 12Z SUNDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING MORE ZONAL FLOW HAVING SET UP ACROSS THE AREA...AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER SASKATCHEWAN.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SFC FRONT SLIDING SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW/SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
START PUSHING THE BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AS WE
GET INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...AND HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA /MAINLY SC NEB/.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...AT THIS POINT SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH BKN CIGS NEAR OR ABOVE 12KFT
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS WE THEN TRANSITION INTO
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT CONVECTION ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS TO SPREAD EASTWARD...AND INTRODUCED A CHANCE FOR A
VCTS TO THE TAFS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. WITH THE
AXIS OF THE LLJ EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT...COULD SEE SOME WS AT THE TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT OPTED TO KEEP THIS OUT OF THE TAF FOR THE TIME
BEING AS SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY ELEVATED ENOUGH TO NEGATE THE
NEED. OTHERWISE...CIGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD TO NEAR 5 KFT
OR SO...BUT OUTSIDE OF A THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE TERMINALS...CIGS
AND VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
314 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS FIRED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE REMNANTS FROM AN MCV ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS MOVE INTO THE
AREA...COMBINED WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES 3000-4000 J/KG.
EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK...LESS THAN 25 KNOTS...SO THE
STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY PULSY UP AND DOWN WITH SMALL HAIL AND 30 TO
50 MPH WINDS REPORTED. RAP MODEL INDICATES THIS WOULD REMAIN IN
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...THUS CONTINUED SCATTERED
WORDING IN THE FORECAST. SPC ALSO INDICATES A WATCH IS UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME. WEAK UPPER TROUGH EVEN REMAINS IN THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...AND COULD SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS...WITH SOME STORMS POSSIBLE LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO INDUCE VERY SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY...COULD SEE
ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON STORMS.
BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS SHOULD COME LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. STORMS
WILL LIKELY FIRE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS IN THE LEE TROUGH
AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO CROSS THE ROCKIES. THESE STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST...AND MOSTLY BRING A SEVERE RISK TO AREAS WEST OF
US...BUT SHOULD MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT...THUS HAVE POPS INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA...JUST CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.
SATURDAY SHOULD SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS. WIND SHEAR IS STILL MARGINAL...
BUT COULD BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS THE
FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA. COULD SEE AN EVENING CHANCE
OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY EVENING...BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES
EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY...AND EVEN DRY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...
BUT AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...IT
SHOULD DRIVE THE FRONT INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WIND SHEAR INCREASES ON SUNDAY
AND SHOULD SEE SEVERE STORMS BREAK OUT NORTH OF I80 BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN DEVELOP SOUTHWARD TOWARD I80 THROUGH THE EVENING
AS THE FRONT MOVES IN...THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL
PUSH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS
SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...WHEN NEXT CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT WILL BE HIT AND MISS WITH THE TAF SITES. MVFR DECK IS
FLOATING AROUND KLNK AND KOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND TCU WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1234 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
VW IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING FEATURE OF INTEREST...PAC NW
SHORTWAVE...APPROACHING THE COASTLINE WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW PRETTY
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NW TROF
WILL BECOME NEG TILT WITH 70M HGT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT.
REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR INDICATING A LINE OF EWD BOUND CONVECTION OVER
THE CNTRL DAKOTAS WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NW KS ALSO
PUSHING EAST. ACTIVITY OCCURRING ALONG INSTABILITY/MOISTURE
AXIS/BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADV. LATEST HRRR SHOWS LINE OF CONVECTION
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THRU 12Z THIS MORNING.
ON THE WHOLE...NAM/GFS/ECM QPF PRODUCTS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE
BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR 36HRS AND OUT...MAKING POP PLACEMENT QUITE
PROBLEMATIC. HOWEVER...THE HRRR AS WELL AS ARW/NMM SEEM TO HAVE
PERFORMED RATHER WELL. GIVEN THAT...WILL FOLLOW THE LATTER FOR HOW
MORNING CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE. ALL THREE PROG GRADUAL DISSIPATION THRU
12Z AS IT APPROACHES THE WRN CWA.
LATER THIS MORNING...BOTH ARW/NMM SHOW AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NE
NEB EXPANDING SWD DURING THE AFTN HOURS...THEN INTO WRN IA THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL PCPN ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE THEN REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS AREA OF FORCING IS MAINTAINED
VIA MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT/BNDRY LYR THETA-E CONVG/MODERATE
DIFFERENTIAL DIVG. AND WITH GULF REMAINING OPEN...PROLONGED MOISTURE
ADVECTION SHOULD ENSURE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL
REMAIN MOISTURE RICH.
AS FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL...GFS AND ECM ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT BRUNT OF INSTABILITY/DEEP LYR SHEAR WILL BE FOUND JUST
WEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN AS WELL AS FRIDAY AFT. SATURDAY THOUGH
LOOKS BETTER FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE ACTIVITY WHEN BUOYANCY/SHEAR
SHIFTS EWD TWD THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
PCPN CHANCES CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PDS SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING LOOKING PARTICULARLY INTERESTING WRT
POSSIBLE SEVERE WX OUTBREAK. BOTH GFS/ECM SHOW 850MB FRONT LIFTING
ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR WITH MOISTURE
RICH ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR THOUGH MAY BE
LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS DEEP CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO BE
SITUATED IN CNTRL CANADA AT THAT TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT WILL BE HIT AND MISS WITH THE TAF SITES. MVFR DECK IS
FLOATING AROUND KLNK AND KOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND TCU WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. DO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
935 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A
LATE SEASON COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PRESS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT USHERING IN
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK LIKELY RESULTING IN THE HOTTEST WEATHER OF 2014 SO FAR.
&&
.UPDATE...EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PLAYING HAVOC
ON THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY. NOW YESTERDAYS NAM GUIDANCE
LOOKING MUCH BETTER. WE MAY SEE MORE SUN LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT BY
THEN DO NOT THINK TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE EXPECTED
HIGHS, SO LOWERED THEM ACROSS THE BOARD BY 4-5 DEGREES. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS WELL WHICH WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON
MINIMUM RH VALUES AS WELL.
LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY FALLING IN TONOPAH. HRRR AND HI RES MODELS
MAINTAIN ANY QPF CONFINED TO ESMERALDA, CENTRAL NYE AND NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTIES. UPDATED PRODUCTS FOR THE REST OF TODAY ARE
AVAILABLE.
&&
.PREV UPDATE...CLOUDS HAVE ENHANCED OFF MOUNT SAN GORGONIO THIS
MORNING LIKELY DUE TO WAVE ACTIVITY ALOFT INTO THE MORONGO BASIN AND
THIS HAS SPREAD ALL THE WAY EAST INTO SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY.
UPDATED THE SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 336 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
FOR LATE JUNE WAS SWEEPING ACROSS THE PAC NW EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALREADY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH
HAVE SPILLED INTO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWFA AND THESE CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH ON SOUTH AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING. SKY
GRIDS WILL SHOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH SHOULD KNOCK DOWN HIGH TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES TODAY FROM
WHAT WE SAW ON WEDNESDAY PUTTING READINGS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. WHILE MOST OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 400 MB, MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS AND MEAN LAYER 700-500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS
SHOW ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO SUPPORT THE GFS, ECMWF AND
WRF QPF FOR TODAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN. THE BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER THE PANHANDLE OF LINCOLN
COUNTY WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXISTS THAT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A BELT OF 30-40 KT WINDS AT
700 MB FROM NORTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY INTO CLARK AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT HIGHER
WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND THIS SUPPORTS THE WINDS
ADVISORIES CURRENTLY OUT. I DID GO AHEAD AND ADD IN THE MORONGO
BASIN AS A PUSH OF WEST WINDS THIS EVENING LOOKS HIGH ENOUGH TO
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN
REDUCING VISIBILITY. IT STILL APPEARS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BE
ENHANCED IN STRENGTH THIS EVENING OFF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AS THE 4
KM NMM DEVELOPS A CRITICAL LAYER TO THE LEE WHICH WOULD FAVOR
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SETTING UP.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD END THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME MORE WEAKLY DEFINED AS IT
GETS INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT BUT IT WILL HELP TO SHUT DOWN WINDS
TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS. FOR THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY
THIS MAY BE ONE OF THOSE EVENTS WHERE THE WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST MAKES IT ABOUT HALFWAY ACROSS THE VALLEY TONIGHT - DOWN TO
CHARLESTON OR SAHARA - THEN FIZZLES OUT. LOCAL GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AND LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW WHAT WE SEE THIS MORNING.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR FRIDAY AND HOLDS INTO SATURDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FURTHER COOLING FOR FRIDAY, HOWEVER, BETTER
PERFORMING GUIDANCE BASED ON VERIFICATION CONTINUES TO NOT BE AS
AMBITIOUS WITH COOLING TEMPS ON FRIDAY. FOR NOW WE CONTINUE TO GO
WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY. FURTHER WARMING SHOULD
TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY PUSHING HIGHS BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE BIGGEST
IMPACT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS FIRMLY OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2-3
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THE REAL WARMUP WILL OCCUR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS 7-9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WOULD PUT LAS
VEGAS` TEMPERATURES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 110-112 DEGREES WHICH WOULD
ALSO BE FLIRTING WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT WHICH IS CURRENTLY 112 DEGREES.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT SOME MOISTURE COULD START WRAPPING AROUND THE HIGH
LATE IN THE WEEK AND BRING SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THIS IS CURRENTLY BEYOND
THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE DOOR COULD OPEN FOR
SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE
CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WITH SPEEDS OF
20-30 KTS AND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL FAVOR
CONFIGURATION 1. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY TONIGHT BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z FRIDAY, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST MAY MATERIALIZE AT THE
AIRPORT COMPLEX. STRONG WINDS ALOFT COULD CREATE MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 25-35 KTS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD CAUSE AREAS OF BLDU REDUCING
VSBY AS WELL AS STRONG CROSSWINDS AT SOME AIRFIELDS AS WELL AS
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE ALOFT. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG AND
NORTH OF A KBIH-KCDC LINE THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. CIGS AS LOW AS 6K-8K
FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TO 8-16 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL FAVOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING. SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 15
PCT. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THEN FOR ZONES 101,
102, 463, 464, 465 AND 466. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH WITH WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT FOR WINDS
AROUND 10000 FEET AVERAGING 25-35 KTS WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR NVZ463>466.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR NVZ016-018>022.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR AZZ101-102.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR AZZ001-003-036.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR CAZ524.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
CAZ523-525.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...GORELOW
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
104 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
AREA OF SHOWERS THAT PRODUCED LOCALLY 3-5 INCHES OF RAIN LISBON
AREA MOVING NORTHEAST AND AS ANTICIPATED WEAKENED SLOWLY AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST. QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN.
850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS IN THE RRV AND ERN ND THRU THIS
EVE AND WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS COULD VERY WELL SEE SOME SCATTERED
RE-DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTN-EVE SO WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE THE FORECAST
HEADACHE...PARTICULARLY TIMING AND STRENGTH.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE PLAINS AS THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS ONTO THE WEST COAST. ONE LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN
SETTING OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL ND THAT ARE JUST
STARTING TO MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA. WITH GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE CWA AS 850MB JET OF AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS MOVES
EAST...THINK THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY DECENT HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT CONVECTION...SO FOLLOWED TREND OF THAT MODEL WITH HIGH
POPS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CWA DURING THE MORNING. WITH A WARMER
AIR MASS MOVING IN...THINK WE WILL STILL BE ABLE TO GET INTO THE
70S EVEN WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON
EXACTLY HOW MUCH DEBRIS FROM THIS MORNING AFFECTS DESTABILIZATION.
THE NAM HAS 3000 J/KG OF CAPE BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS UNDERDONE
ON THE CURRENT PRECIP WE HAVE OVER OUR SOUTH. MORE REASONABLE IS
THE RAP WHICH BRINGS SOME 1000-1500 J/KG INTO OUR SOUTHWEST FOR
THIS EVENING. THINK THAT SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY...BUT THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND AFTERNOON. OF GREATER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN
AS THE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MOVES INTO OUR
AREA TONIGHT. WITH MULTIPLE PERIODS OF RAIN EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL ISSUE AN ESF BUT STILL TOO UNCERTAIN FOR ANY KIND OF
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. THE SFC TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A LOT OF MOISTURE COMING
INTO OUR CWA. TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE THE PROBLEM...AS THERE
COULD BE ONGOING ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING THAT WILL AFFECT
DESTABILIZATION. GFS AND NAM BOTH HAVE CAPE VALUES REACHING AROUND
2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES NOT
REALLY GET INTO THE 30 TO 45 KT RANGE UNTIL THE EVENING. STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE VALLEY WESTWARD.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
AT THE START WITH SOME SEVERE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
OUT INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN LIFTING NORTH INTO CANADA
AND CLOSING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS. WHAT IS NOT GOOD AGREEMENT IS THE TIMING OF
PRECIP AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST QPF ENDS UP. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
WITH BLANKET LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN THE PRECIP HERE AND THERE
BUT IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME. SOME SEVERE IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION BUT HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH WE WILL DESTABILIZE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THINK THAT PRECIP WILL FINALLY START TO TAPER OFF LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH AND THE SFC TROUGH
AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA.
FLAT LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. PATTERN AMPLIFIES A
BIT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE
THE PROBLEM THIS PERIOD. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TROUGH TIMING IS SIMILAR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS PERIOD HOWEVER THE GFS IS FASTER
WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND OF LOWER AMPLITUDE THAN THE ECMWF. WILL
BLEND THE ECMWF AND GFS.
TRIMMED BACK [POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH ON MON AND MON NIGHT. WILL TRIM
BACK POPS ON TUE NIGHT
LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
AREA OF SHRA TO MOVE EAST OF KFAR EARLY AFTERNOON...LEAVING ALL TAF
SITES PCPN FREE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. INTRODUCED VCTS TO ALL SITES
TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS MONTANA SYSTEM MAKES SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST.
CIGS MAINLY VFR FIRST HALF OF PERIOD WITH MVFR ENCROACHING DURING
LATTER HALF. SLOW MOVEMENT AT ALL LEVELS WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS
STEADY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST NOT TOO FAR FROM 10 KTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY IN AN AREA FROM GWINNER TO LISBON THROUGH
LATE TODAY DUE TO SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH RADAR
ESTIMATES OF OVER 4 INCHES IN A NARROW AREA BETWEEN GWINNER AND
LISBON.
THE RED RIVER AT FARGO CONTINUES TO DECLINE...NOW FALLING BELOW
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN MADE
FOR THE RED...WITH GRADUALLY FALLING LEVELS FROM EAST GRAND FORKS UP
TO OSLO...AND STILL RISING STAGES UP TO PEMBINA. A FLOOD WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK WITH INCREASED
RELEASES FROM LAKE BRONSON. FALLING RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE ON THE
BUFFALO AND S BUFFALO RIVER NEAR DILWORTH AND AT SABIN.
WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND SATURATED GROUND...ADDITIONAL FLOOD CONCERNS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED. PLEASE REFER TO THE ESF FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPPES
AVIATION...WJB
HYDROLOGY...JAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
255 PM PDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS OVER NORTHWEST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE COAST
AND WILL SPREAD RAIN TO THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN INLAND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREAS IN CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A DRYING TREND BEGINNING SUNDAY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE N
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON IN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS
OVER THE AREA. DONT EXPECT CLOUDS TO BREAK UP MUCH THIS EVENING AND
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING AND WILL KEEP THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS TODAY HAVE BEEN FASTER WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM
AND THE RAP AND HRRR INDICATE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD TO THE S
WASHINGTON AND N OREGON COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OFFSHORE HAVE BEEN OVER 2 NEAR 41N
133W...BUT THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. STILL...THERE IS BROAD BAND OF 1 TO 1.25 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME WHICH WILL CROSS INTO NORTHWEST OREGON
TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG WESTERLY JET APPROACHING WITH THIS SYSTEM
MORE LIKE A WINTER TIME EVENT. IT WONT TAKE MUCH DYNAMICS OR
OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THIS SYSTEM. RAIN
WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD TURN
MORE SHOWERY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CAP
AROUND 10000 FEET SO THE INSTABILITY IS ALL IN THE LOW LEVELS.
STRONG JET CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES
PASSING ACROSS. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WESTERLY JET WILL
DECREASE ON SUNDAY AND UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD. SCHNEIDER
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BUILDING RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
INTO THE MID 80S BY TUESDAY. THE RIDGE IS PROGRESSIVE HOWEVER AND
THIS ALLOWS ON ONSHORE PUSH BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR NORMAL. BOTH MODELS DIG AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE COAST LATE
IN THE WEEK. SCHNEIDER
&&
.AVIATION...A BETTER MIXED LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING FOR INTERIOR SITES. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
SPREADS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT PRIMARILY A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST...AND A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS
INLAND FRIDAY. THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR FRIDAY MORNING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GIVE
WAY TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN LATER TONIGHT...TOWARDS 09Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT ON AND OFF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. /NEUMAN
&&
.MARINE...A FRONT WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE INTO
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...WITH GUSTS OF 25 KT...LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. A COASTAL JET WILL LIKELY
ENHANCE WINDS WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COAST WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT WIND WAVES TO INCREASE INTO THE 4 TO 6 FT
RANGE EARLY FRIDAY...WHICH WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS A 7 TO 9 FT
FRESH SWELL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HIGHER PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND
ALLOW SEAS TO COME DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT WINDS TO FOLLOW A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL OREGON
WATERS. /NEUMAN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 4 AM TO 8
AM PDT FRIDAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
309 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.DISCUSSION...
BROKEN SHOWER COVERAGE IS OBSERVED ACROSS NRN AL AND EXTENDING
INTO FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. UPPER TROUGH AXIS DOES EXTEND FROM AR
SE THROUGH CENTRAL MS WITH PVA TO THE NE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NE THIS EVENING BUT BOTH THE HRRR AND OVERALL MODEL
MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MUCH OVERNIGHT. DYNAMICS
ALOFT DONT SEEM TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF THE BROKEN TO WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...FROM WHAT I AM SEEING...MODEL GUIDANCE MIGHT
BE A TAD TOO LOW AND WILL THEREFORE WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.
ON FRIDAY...WE WILL SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF ANTI CYCLONIC RIDGING IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN THE MORNING. STILL PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK WITHIN THE MODELS. BUT...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THAT MAY LIMIT THE
CONVECTION EARLY ON. BY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL INFLEXION POINT WILL SKIRT OFF TO THE
NE. FLOW CONTAINS MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WITH IMPULSES
WITHIN. MODEL MOISTURE IS ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE TOWARD 12Z. THIS
TREND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.
SO ALL IN ALL OVER THE SHORT TERM...BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. TSTMS WILL
OF COURSE BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT THE MORE UNIFORM VERTICAL FLOW
PATTERN TENDS TO CUT DOWN ON OUR CAPE VALUES.
FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
OVER THE NEXT FEW PERIODS THROUGH SATURDAY. WHEN APPLYING THE 850 MB
TEMPS AND PARCEL MIXING...THE GFS MAX TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH.
IN FACT...WHILE I`M AT IT...THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CASE IN THE
EXTENDED AS WELL. SO...WILL GO AHEAD AND UNDERCUT MAX TEMPS
THROUGHOUT THE BULK OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. AS FOR LOW TEMPS...LITTLE
DEVIATION WILL BE USED.
IN THE EXTENDED FCST...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO BUILD JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. WEAK WESTERLIES WITH HIGH HEIGHT VALUES TO PREVAIL. CAPE WILL
INCREASE AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DECREASES. STILL SEEING SOME CAP
EROSION EVERY AFTERNOON BUT POPS OF 20 PERCENT WILL BE THE MAIN
TREND. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HOWEVER...A WEAKENING BOUNDARY
MAY REQUIRE A 30 POP HERE AND THERE.
AGAIN...FOR THE EXTENDED TEMPS...WILL TREND TOWARD COOLER THAN THE
ADVERTISED MAXES. 96 ON MONDAY FOR BNA LOOKS TOO HIGH EVEN WITH FULL
850 MB MIXING. EURO NUMBERS LOOK MORE BELIEVABLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 68 88 70 88 / 30 40 50 50
CLARKSVILLE 66 88 68 88 / 30 40 50 50
CROSSVILLE 64 84 65 83 / 30 50 50 50
COLUMBIA 68 88 69 89 / 40 60 50 50
LAWRENCEBURG 67 87 68 88 / 50 60 50 50
WAVERLY 67 88 69 88 / 40 50 50 50
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
308 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING THE
MIDDLE TEXAS MARINE ZONES AND LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CWA. LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR CAPTURES ONGOING CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL... WITH
ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW ON
WIDESPREAD NATURE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER THIS MORNING/S
CONVECTION...BUT WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS THROUGH 00Z. ANTICIPATE
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
LATER THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
70S IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
HELP KEEPS TEMPS UP A BIT. WEAKNESS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE
EASTERN SECTIONS ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE A
LITTLE LOWER WITH PW/S AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH...
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA REGION WHERE
30 AND 40 POPS ARE LOCATED. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 90S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO AROUND 90 OVER THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. IF MORE RAINFALL DEVELOPS TOMORROW MORNING
THOUGH...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH
A GRADUALLY DRYING FORECAST AS PWATS RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION.
MIDLEVEL TEMPS REMAIN COOL ENOUGH TO FORESTALL CAP DEVELOPMENT AND
INCREASE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL
REASONABLE DIURNALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOW
LEVEL FLOW PICKS UP OVER THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS PICKS
UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT
SUPPORT RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DISCREPANCIES APPEAR AT THIS TIMEFRAME SO WILL JUST BROADBRUSH LOW
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR LOWS DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 94 80 92 81 / 30 40 20 30 10
VICTORIA 75 90 78 93 78 / 30 40 20 30 10
LAREDO 79 97 80 101 81 / 20 20 10 10 10
ALICE 76 95 78 95 79 / 30 30 20 20 10
ROCKPORT 79 91 81 91 82 / 30 30 20 30 10
COTULLA 75 97 77 97 77 / 20 20 10 10 10
KINGSVILLE 78 94 79 94 80 / 30 30 20 30 10
NAVY CORPUS 80 90 81 90 82 / 30 30 20 30 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TB/78...SHORT TERM
JV/71...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
332 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014
.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM COULD CREEP INTO SOUTHWEST
WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON THE COVERAGE OVER
THE MKX AREA COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM LATE EVENING TO JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WEST OF
MADISON AND FOND DU LAC. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE TO 925MB
FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA ON THE NOSE OF A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET... ALONG SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED...AS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL HANG OUT
OVER IA/IL THROUGH TONIGHT. CAPE AND SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED...AROUND
600 J/KG OR LESS...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG STORMS.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING UP INTO MN AND WESTERN WI FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDS ALMOST
ALL THE WAY TO THE LAKE IN SOUTHERN WI BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR STORMS /SCATTERED COVERAGE/ WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM
MADISON AND WEST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AS CAPE...SHEAR...
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE LIMITED.
WE MAY SEE THE LOW CLOUDS RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEBCAMS SHOW AN AREA OF
FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS HOVERING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
RACINE AND KENOSHA WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS FOR DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT FOG WITH AROUND 4 MILE VISIBILITY IS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION.
.FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE EAST OF US...WHILE A RATHER DEEP TROF WILL
BE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WE/LL BE STUCK
UNDER A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH WEAK RIPPLES
POTENTIALLY ROLLING THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF WISCONSIN AND WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. LIKE THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ON FRIDAY...THEN DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN AS WE HEAT UP ON SATURDAY AND WARM AIR RETURNS WITH THAT
WARM FRONT...STILL RATHER SMALL POPS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THIS COULD BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THE
ARRIVAL OF A RATHER POTENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF...WHILE AT
THE SURFACE WE REMAIN UNDER A VERY MOIST AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING IN A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT GIVEN THE
TIME OF DAY...LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEIR STRENGTH WOULD LIKELY
BE LIMITED. ON SUNDAY...WE/LL SEE THE COLD FRONT COME THROUGH
WITHIN A VERY HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...ONCE THE STORMS
CLEAR OUT IN THE MORNING...THE COLUMN REALLY DRIES OUT. WE/LL HAVE
TO SEE IF WE CAN MOISTEN THINGS UP A BIT MORE OR ALL THAT CAPE MAY
GO TO WASTE.
.MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
WE/LL HAVE A MEANDERING FRONT IN THE AREA WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE ROLLING THROUGH AS LARGE SCALE TROF DIGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MORE OF A FACTOR HERE AND
WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO
50 KNOTS.
.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
WE TRANSITION INTO A COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. STILL SOME DIURNAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH LESS OF A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE MORE STABLE REGIME EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP FROM MADISON TO MONROE
TO FOND DU LAC AND WEST THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
A WARM FRONT. NOT EXPECTING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY DRIFT INLAND OVER
MAINLY RACINE AND KENOSHA TONIGHT. MILWAUKEE HAS A RISK FOR
FOG...BUT LOW STRATUS APPEARS TO BE THE GREATER RISK AT THIS TIME.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...AS MKE WILL BE ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS/FOG AREA. LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR VSBY IS
LIKELY ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT.
WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ON FRIDAY...THERE IS A RISK THAT ANY
LINGERING LAKE FOG/STRATUS WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO MILWAUKEE
FRIDAY MORNING. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD LIMIT FOG FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEBCAMS SHOW AN AREA OF FOG AND LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS HOVERING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. A CALL TO THE
KENOSHA COAST GUARD INDICATED LOW CLOUDS IN THAT AREA RATHER THAN
FOG. HOWEVER...A WEB CAM AT WINTHROP HARBOR IL INDICATED FOG. WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE AT
THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ON FRIDAY COULD BRING FOG BACK NORTHWARD
FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WIND POINT TO NORTH POINT LIGHT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DAVIS