Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/25/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
245 PM MST MON JUN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK FOLLOWED BY EVEN HOTTER
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED 30-45 DBZ ECHOES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS IN ERN COCHISE COUNTY AT 2140Z.
SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE DETECTED JUST EAST OF THE CHIRICAHUA
MTNS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED
ACROSS MUCH OF PIMA/SRN PINAL COUNTIES...AND SCATTERED CUMULOFORM
CLOUDS WERE MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON. 23/19Z HRRR WAS SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS IN DEPICTING WEAK PRECIP ECHOES TO OCCUR
ACROSS ABOUT THE ERN HALF OF COCHISE COUNTY THRU ABOUT 24/03Z.
BELIEVE THERE IS JUST ENOUGH LOWER AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE CHIRICAHUA
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM
THIS ACTIVITY. THE NEAR-SURFACE ENVIRONMENT IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
THE DEPICTION/MENTION OF MEASURABLE PRECIP AT LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
COCHISE COUNTY. THEREAFTER...CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL LATER THIS EVENING AND THE REST OF TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED WEST OF NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA GENERALLY
NEAR 28N/128W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SONORA MEXICO
WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THRU WED. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE
CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SE OF THE AREA ACROSS NERN SONORA/NWRN CHIHUAHUA.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC NW WED NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
THUR...AND CONTINUE EWD INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES FRI. THE 23/12Z
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE
MAY BE SOME ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS FRI AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE
SAFFORD VALLEY GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT.
HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS AT THIS TIME ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. A VERY DRY REGIME WILL THEN CONTINUE
SAT UNDER LIGHT WLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT.
THEREAFTER...GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE ERN PACIFIC EWD INTO TEXAS
SUN. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS THEN PROGGED TO BECOME CENTERED
ESSENTIALLY OVER NWRN NEW MEXICO MON. THIS PATTERN YIELDED A LIGHT
GENERALLY ELY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS SE AZ. HOWEVER...BOTH
MODELS DEPICTED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS FORECAST
AREA...WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WELL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FROM ERN
NEW MEXICO INTO EAST CENTRAL SONORA. THUS...FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS NEXT MON.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF THEN PRODUCED FAIRLY ROBUST QPF/S JUST EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA NEXT TUE (JULY 1) FOLLOWED BY MEASURABLE
PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA NEXT WED (JULY 2). THESE DAYS ARE
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. AT ANY RATE...THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEEPER IMPORT OF MOISTURE INTO SE AZ BY ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AT LEAST FROM A MEDIUM RANGE MODEL PERSPECTIVE.
HIGH TEMPS TUE-SAT WILL BE AT NORMAL VALUES OR AVERAGE JUST A FEW
DEGS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. NO COOLING OF SIGNIFICANCE IS EXPECTED
FRI AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THEREAFTER...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR SUN-MON DUE TO INCREASED HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES IN
RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/00Z.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF A WILLCOX TO KDUG
LINE IN THE ERN HALF OF COCHISE COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS GENERALLY AT 10-15K FT AGL
INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE
WINDS INTO THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SWLY TO NWLY
AT 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF COCHISE
COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
240 PM MST MON JUN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK FOLLOWED BY EVEN HOTTER
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED 30-35 DBZ ECHOES NEAR
THE CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS IN ERN COCHISE COUNTY AT 2115Z. OTHERWISE...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF PIMA/SRN PINAL COUNTIES...AND
SCATTERED CUMULOFORM CLOUDS WERE MOSTLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON.
23/19Z HRRR WAS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS IN DEPICTING WEAK
PRECIP ECHOES TO OCCUR ACROSS ABOUT THE ERN HALF OF COCHISE COUNTY
THRU ABOUT 24/03Z. BELIEVE THERE IS JUST ENOUGH LOWER AND MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE
CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY. THE NEAR-SURFACE ENVIRONMENT IS TOO DRY
TO SUPPORT THE DEPICTION/MENTION OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY. THEREAFTER...CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL LATER THIS EVENING AND THE REST OF TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED WEST OF NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA GENERALLY
NEAR 28N/128W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SONORA MEXICO
WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THRU WED. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE
CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SE OF THE AREA ACROSS NERN SONORA/NWRN CHIHUAHUA.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE PACIFIC NW WED NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
THUR...AND CONTINUE EWD INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES FRI. THE 23/12Z
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE
MAY BE SOME ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS FRI AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE
SAFFORD VALLEY GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT.
HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS AT THIS TIME ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. A VERY DRY REGIME WILL THEN CONTINUE
SAT UNDER LIGHT WLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT.
THEREAFTER...GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE ERN PACIFIC EWD INTO TEXAS
SUN. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS THEN PROGGED TO BECOME CENTERED
ESSENTIALLY OVER NWRN NEW MEXICO MON. THIS PATTERN YIELDED A LIGHT
GENERALLY ELY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS SE AZ. HOWEVER...BOTH
MODELS DEPICTED PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS FORECAST
AREA...WITH ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WELL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FROM ERN
NEW MEXICO INTO EAST CENTRAL SONORA. THUS...FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS NEXT MON.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF THEN PRODUCED FAIRLY ROBUST QPF/S JUST EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA NEXT TUE (JULY 1) FOLLOWED BY MEASURABLE
PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA NEXT WED (JULY 2). THESE DAYS ARE
BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. AT ANY RATE...THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEEPER IMPORT OF MOISTURE INTO SE AZ BY ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AT LEAST FROM A MEDIUM RANGE MODEL PERSPECTIVE.
HIGH TEMPS TUE-SAT WILL BE AT NORMAL VALUES OR AVERAGE JUST A FEW
DEGS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. NO COOLING OF SIGNIFICANCE IS EXPECTED
FRI AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THEREAFTER...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR SUN-MON DUE TO INCREASED HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES IN
RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/00Z.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY EAST OF A WILLCOX TO KDUG
LINE IN THE ERN HALF OF COCHISE COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS GENERALLY AT 10-15K FT AGL
INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE
WINDS INTO THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SWLY TO NWLY
AT 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF COCHISE
COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND SETTLE JUST OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT...INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED BUT
CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DACKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY. ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED LINE WAS OVER WESTERN NY AS THIS IS
MORE ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER FLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY BECOME THE MAIN
LINE OF CONVECTION TO MONITOR OVERNIGHT. LATEST RUC13 SUGGESTS THE
LINE WILL BE MORE PROBLEMATIC ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK AND
DACKS REGION OVERNIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH...WITH WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALOFT WITH NEGATIVE SHOWLATERS...WE WILL
STILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHC TO SCT POPS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MINOR
TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.
GENERALLY...SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY IN
WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY
AND PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. SO LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LINGERING MORNING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY EVEN INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL
DISTRICT...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE
SHOULD BE SUNSHINE BETWEEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
WHICH SHOULD DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND WARM TEMPERATURES TO
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S...SOME MID 80S SOUTHERN AREAS AND MID TO
UPPER 70S NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY THAT WILL LIKELY ONLY SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH AND EAST AS
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACK NORTHEAST WITHIN THE
BAND. FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT A LOW LEVEL
DEWPOINT BOUNDARY AND LITTLE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND CORE IS PREDICTED
TO TRACK THROUGH OUR REGION FOR ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL JET DIVERGENCE INDICATED OVER OUR REGION
AND DEEP MOISTURE SEEN IN AS A TROPICAL CONNECTION IN SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PREDICTED VERY HIGH PWAT VALUES. SO...SOME
STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN.
THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE THAT THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION...
PERHAPS SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAIN AREA AS WELL. WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE WHETHER THERE IS ENOUGH OF A
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR A WATCH HEADLINE BY TOMORROW.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A LOW
LEVEL WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IS POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY IN SOME AREAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WELL INTO THE 60S...
BUT AROUND 60 WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS IF
THE WIND SHIFT DOES TRACK THROUGH. JUST SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
ERODE BUT MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME SUN BEFORE SUNSET. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80...SOME LOWER TO MID 80S MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST TOWARD OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING. IT SHOULD
BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...AROUND 50 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO AROUND 80...LOWER 70S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR INFILTRATING THE
FORECAST AREA TO OPEN THE WEEKEND. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE EARLY ON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S SATURDAY
MORNING. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING FAIRLY NICE WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE SETTLING OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. H850 TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE IN THE
+13C TO +15C RANGE...AND MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE U70S TO L80S
IN THE VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER
PLEASANT EVENING IS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60F IN A FEW SPOTS. THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE ERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
W-CNTRL ONTARIO WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS UPSTREAM OF THE REGION. THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
WESTWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
TEMPS STILL LOOK SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW M70S OVER THE MTNS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE FCST AREA TRANSITIONS BACK INTO A
MORE HUMID AIR MASS FOR THE OPENING OF NEXT WEEK. LOW AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE...AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN ALONG
THE EAST COAST. H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +16C TO +18C BY MON. THESE
TEMPS ARE A STANDARD DEVIATION OR SO ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON THE
LATEST GEFS. THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST /NEAR BERMUDA/. THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF AN AFTERNOON
POP-UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...AND A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OR SFC TROUGH MAY IMPACT THE REGION FOR TUE FOR ANOTHER CHC
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON THE GFS/CANADIAN GGEM/ECMWF/GEFS
AND WPC GUIDANCE. LOWS IN THE U50S TO M60S BOTH DAYS...AND HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO M80S WITH A FEW U70S OVER THE HIGH PEAKS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SKIES QUICKLY CLEARED AND NOW WE MONITOR CONVECTION UPSTREAM ALONG
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS TO LOWER DOWN INTO MVFR LATE THIS EVENING. AS MARINE
INFLUENCE AIR BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE HUDSON RIVER...CIGS ARE
FORECAST TO LOWER CLOSE TO IFR OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES NORTH OF
ALBANY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR AVIATION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND THE INCREASE CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND SPEEDS
10KTS OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AND SETTLE JUST OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A WET AND UNSETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE 50 PERCENT THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...AND NEAR 100 PERCENT AT NIGHT.
A DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ONLY AN
OUTSIDE OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST.
AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW...AND ONE...IF NOT
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE. BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH POTENTIAL FOR PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND STANDING WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM THE WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE
REGION PERHAPS TO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.
WE ARE FORECASTING AN AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO
PRODUCE SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON SOME RIVERS AND
STREAMS. A COUPLE SPOTS LIKE DELTA DAM AND UTICA COULD REACH ACTION
STAGE.
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL DO HAVE THE REMOTE
POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING BUT RIGHT NOW...THE THREAT
OF THAT WAS LOWER THAN 50 PERCENT SO NO FLASH FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
WERE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT. KEEP IN MIND ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD
PRODUCE LOCAL AMOUNTS WELL OVER 2 INCHES.
STAY TUNED.
DRIER WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...BGM/SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
916 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG IT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL ARRIVE NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE GFS AND CAN GGEM WERE VERIFYING THE BEST AS TO WHERE WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS AND ALSO THE GEOGRAPHIC
EXTENT. ALSO ECHOES HAVE BEEN VERIFYING SE OF THE COSPA AND WITH
THE LATEST RUC RUNS A BIT WETTER EAST AND NO RIDGING TO STOP IT,
WE KEPT THE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THRU THE NIGHT WEST.
CWA HAS BEEN BENEFITING FROM LOWER DEW POINTS AND TEMP ERRORS
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE BEEN TOO WARM, SO WE NUDGED BOTH TEMPS
AND DEWS DOWNWARD. MIXING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS HAS LESSENED
AND WE HAVE NUDGED SPEEDS DOWNWARD FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND
KEPT SIMILAR SPEEDS OVERNIGHT.
FOR TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE WHILE A SFC
TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE
NW. THE RESULTING PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT SLY FLOW
OVER THE AREA. THIS PLUS SW FLOW ABOVE THE SFC WILL BRING
INCREASING MOIST AIR IN TO THE REGION. CLOUDINESS WILL BE
INCREASING OVERNIGHT INCLUDING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME
FOG AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO CLEAR-CUT FORCING FOR UVV...WE
HAVE MAINTAINED A CHC OR SLGT CHC POP FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS N/W OF PHL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE SFC TROF AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO PA ON WED
AND A SHRTWV TROF ALOFT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE W AND SW. THE
SHRTWV WILL ENHANCE UVV...ALTHO THE BEST FORCING SEEMS TO BE TO OUR
N AND NW. EVEN SO THERE WILL BE A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH
PWS FCST TO BE OVER 2 INCHES. IN SPITE OF INCREASING CLOUDS...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEATING TO PRODUCE INSTBY FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY WITH POPS INCREASING WEST TO EAST. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND SOME
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS WILL BE MOVING SW TO
NE AND IF TRAINING OCCURS THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
HOWEVER ATTM WE BELIEVE THE FLOODING THREAT IS NOT WIDESPREAD OR
ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A FF WATCH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE SITN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK MEAN H5 TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE TROUGH GETS KICKED TO THE EAST SATURDAY ALLOWING H5 RIDGING TO
TAKE PLACE ACROSS OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGING PERSISTS
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SIGNS BEYOND THE LONG
TERM THAT THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES ALOFT TO
COME CLOSE TO OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FROM THU INTO SAT...THEN READINGS
WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S MON AND APPROACH 90 (OR EXCEED IN THE METRO
AREAS) NEXT TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHC WILL BE TIED TO TRANSIENT SHORT WAVES AND WEAK
FRONTS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS POOR
AT BEST BY THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...SO THE WPC POPS WERE USED IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE BEST CHC FOR PCPN ARE SAT/SUN ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WRN AREAS AND AGAIN NEXT TUE...MOSTLY WRN AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
00Z TAFS CONTINUE THE IDEA OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FORMING
OVERNIGHT AND WE INTRODUCED TSTMS LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD.
FOR THIS EVENING VFR WITH POSSIBLY SOME LEFTOVER CUMULUS CLOUDS
AND THEN SOME CIRRUS ABOVE IT. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 5
TO 10 KTS.
OVERNIGHT WE ARE FORECASTING MVFR (IFR VSBY AT KMIV) CIGS AND
VSBYS TO DEVELOP. WE ARE SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT THE CIGS
FORMING THAN THE VSBYS. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND ABOVE THE
DEVELOPING INVERSION, BUT NEAR THE SURFACE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, IMPROVING, HIGHER MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY. WE ARE EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS THEN TO START THE AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WINDS AROUND
10 KTS. NO DISCERNIBLE SEA BREEZE FRONT IS EXPECTED. TSTMS WERE
BROUGHT IN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE
AT OUR TERMINALS DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING. STRONGER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
THU THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR WITH ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
FAIRLY QUIET CONDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NJ/DE COASTAL
WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...OR AT LEAST NO
SCA FLAGS ARE EXPECTED ATTM. SLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING
SOME TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW
BUT CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS WED AFTN AND
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL
TEND TO HAVE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL AS THE USUAL LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS CAN
BE EXPECTED AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT REMAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCAL FLOODING AS THE PW
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES.
AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES, THE FLOW IS GENERALLY PARALLEL TO IT WHICH
INTRODUCES THE RISK FOR TRAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS, AND ANY TRAINING OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL ENHANCE
THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT. THE ARRIVAL OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
FRONT MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ALLOW FOR MORE
FOCUSED DOWNPOURS. THIS LOOKS TO INITIALLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY, THEN IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING
THE EVENING. THE 1-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH VALUES AT OR LESS THAN 2.00
INCHES. THESE SIMILAR AREAS ON THE 3-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAVE
VALUES BETWEEN ABOUT 2.00 AND 2.50 INCHES. IT IS THESE LOCATIONS AND
THE MORE URBANIZED SPOTS THAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT BEING ISSUED ATTM DUE TO SOME QUESTION ON
HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS /AREAL COVERAGE/ AND WHERE IF BECOMES FOCUSED
THE LONGEST. A MENTION HOWEVER REMAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GIGI
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...AMC/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
714 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG IT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FRIDAY AND REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL ARRIVE NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AS WELL AS RUC AND COSPA RUNS (18Z
GFS AND WRF TOO), WE HAVE SCALED BACK POPS AS WE HAVE REMAINED
RELATIVELY MORE STABLE OVER OUR CWA AND ONGOING DEEP FLOW
TRAJECTORY OF ONGOING CONVECTION WOULD BE BY-PASSING MOST OF OUR
CWA THIS EVENING. WE`LL SEE WHERE THE TRENDS GO FROM THERE FOR THE
NEXT UPDATE. OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO SMOOTH CURRENT TEMP
DIFFERENCES AND LOWER SKY NEAR TERM SKY COVER.
FOR TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE WHILE A SFC
TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE NW.
THE RESULTING PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT SLY FLOW OVER THE
AREA. THIS PLUS SW FLOW ABOVE THE SFC WILL BRING INCREASING MOIST
AIR IN TO THE REGION. CLOUDINESS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT
INCLUDING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG AS WELL. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS NO CLEAR-CUT FORCING FOR UVV...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A CHC OR
SLGT CHC POP FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS N/W OF
PHL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE SFC TROF AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO PA ON WED
AND A SHRTWV TROF ALOFT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE W AND SW. THE
SHRTWV WILL ENHANCE UVV...ALTHO THE BEST FORCING SEEMS TO BE TO OUR
N AND NW. EVEN SO THERE WILL BE A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH
PWS FCST TO BE OVER 2 INCHES. IN SPITE OF INCREASING CLOUDS...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEATING TO PRODUCE INSTBY FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY WITH POPS INCREASING WEST TO EAST. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND SOME
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS WILL BE MOVING SW TO
NE AND IF TRAINING OCCURS THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
HOWEVER ATTM WE BELIEVE THE FLOODING THREAT IS NOT WIDESPREAD OR
ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A FF WATCH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE SITN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK MEAN H5 TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE TROUGH GETS KICKED TO THE EAST SATURDAY ALLOWING H5 RIDGING TO
TAKE PLACE ACROSS OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGING PERSISTS
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SIGNS BEYOND THE LONG
TERM THAT THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES ALOFT TO
COME CLOSE TO OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FROM THU INTO SAT...THEN READINGS
WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S MON AND APPROACH 90 (OR EXCEED IN THE METRO
AREAS) NEXT TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHC WILL BE TIED TO TRANSIENT SHORT WAVES AND WEAK
FRONTS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS POOR
AT BEST BY THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...SO THE WPC POPS WERE USED IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE BEST CHC FOR PCPN ARE SAT/SUN ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WRN AREAS AND AGAIN NEXT TUE...MOSTLY WRN AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
00Z TAFS CONTINUE THE IDEA OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FORMING
OVERNIGHT AND WE INTRODUCED TSTMS LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD.
FOR THIS EVENING VFR WITH POSSIBLY SOME LEFTOVER CUMULUS CLOUDS
AND THEN SOME CIRRUS ABOVE IT. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 5
TO 10 KTS.
OVERNIGHT WE ARE FORECASTING MVFR (IFR VSBY AT KMIV) CIGS AND
VSBYS TO DEVELOP. WE ARE SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT THE CIGS
FORMING THAN THE VSBYS. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND ABOVE THE
DEVELOPING INVERSION, BUT NEAR THE SURFACE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, IMPROVING, HIGHER MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY. WE ARE EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS THEN TO START THE AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WINDS AROUND
10 KTS. NO DISCERNIBLE SEA BREEZE FRONT IS EXPECTED. TSTMS WERE
BROUGHT IN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE
AT OUR TERMINALS DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING. STRONGER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
THU THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR WITH ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
FAIRLY QUIET CONDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NJ/DE COASTAL
WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...OR AT LEAST NO
SCA FLAGS ARE EXPECTED ATTM. SLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING
SOME TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW
BUT CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS WED AFTN AND
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL
TEND TO HAVE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL AS THE USUAL LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS CAN
BE EXPECTED AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT REMAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCAL FLOODING AS THE PW
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES.
AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES, THE FLOW IS GENERALLY PARALLEL TO IT WHICH
INTRODUCES THE RISK FOR TRAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS, AND ANY TRAINING OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL ENHANCE
THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT. THE ARRIVAL OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
FRONT MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ALLOW FOR MORE
FOCUSED DOWNPOURS. THIS LOOKS TO INITIALLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY, THEN IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING
THE EVENING. THE 1-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH VALUES AT OR LESS THAN 2.00
INCHES. THESE SIMILAR AREAS ON THE 3-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAVE
VALUES BETWEEN ABOUT 2.00 AND 2.50 INCHES. IT IS THESE LOCATIONS AND
THE MORE URBANIZED SPOTS THAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT BEING ISSUED ATTM DUE TO SOME QUESTION ON
HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS /AREAL COVERAGE/ AND WHERE IF BECOMES FOCUSED
THE LONGEST. A MENTION HOWEVER REMAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY THE REST
OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GIGI
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...AMC/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1015 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SAT PICS SHOW A DISTINCT MOISTURE BNDRY ACRS THE FL PENINSULA
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER CENTRAL/NRN PENINSULA...LITTLE IF ANY
OVER THE S PENINSULA. MORNING SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THIS WITH PWAT
VALUES ARND 2.0" AT KJAX/KMLB...DECREASING TO 1.6" AT KTBW...AND TO
1.4" AT KMFL. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS AS A BAND OF DRY H85-H50 AIR
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN BAHAMAS INTO THE CENTRAL GOMEX. A FRONTAL
TROF EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINA COAST TO BERMUDA IS KEEPING THE
AXIS OF THE H100-H70 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SUPPRESSED OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS/GOMEX. ALOFT...A WELL DEFINED TUTT AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NW
CARIB TO THE NRN BAHAMAS.
THE FL PENINSULA LIES ON THE DESCENDING FLANK OF THE TUTT...WHILE
THE POSITION OF THE LOW/MID LVL RIDGE AXIS WILL GENERATE A DEEP W/SW
FLOW ACRS CENTRAL FL THAT WILL TAP THE DRIER MID LVL AIR UPSTREAM.
WHILE THIS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING PWATS ACRS THE CWA...WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE L/M70S...THIS WILL ONLY DELAY THE ONSET OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION UNTIL MID AFTN. THIS...IN TURN WILL ALLOW GREATER SFC
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION.
SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG SEA/LAKE BREEZE BDRYS WITH
WSW H85-H50 STEERING WINDS PUSHING ACTIVITY EWD ACROSS ECFL AT 10-15
MPH. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM S TO N WILL LEAD TO HIGHER PRECIP
COVERAGE ALONG AND N OF I-4. WHILE DRY AIR ADVECTION AT MID LVLS
WILL INCREASE TSTM GUST POTENTIAL...TEMP PROFILE IS UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH LAPSE RATES THRU THE H85-H50 LYR BTWN 5.5-6.0C/KM...SVR THREAT
REMAINS LOW. WRLY WINDS AND SLOWER INLAND PENETRATION OF THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE L/M90S
AREAWIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 23/16Z...VFR ALL SITES. BTWN 23/16Z-23/18Z...SFC WNDSHFT FM
W/SW TO E/SE AOB 12KTS ASSOCD WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. BTWN
23/16Z-23/22Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS ALL SITES...MORE NMRS N OF
KVRB-KOBE...LIFR TSRAS PSBL BTWN KMLB-KDAB. BTWN 23/22Z-23/24Z...
SCT SHRAS/TSRAS CONTG COASTAL SITES...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA
INTERIOR SITES. BTWN 24/00Z-24/02Z...SHRAS/TSRAS ENDING COASTAL
SITES...BCMG VFR ALL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
NO SIG CHANGES...LCL DATA BUOY/C-MAN NETWORK CONTINUES TO MEASURE A
LIGHT TO GENTLE SW BREEZE WITH SEAS AOB 2FT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
E/SE AOB 10KTS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY EARLY AFTN AS THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE DVLPS. WRLY ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW WILL KEEP IT PINNED
NEAR THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY THRU THE AFTN. DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
DVLP BY MID AFTN WITH STORMS MVG OFFSHORE...POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS
ARND 35KTS.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
RADAR/IMPACT WX.......WEITLICH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
332 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
A broken line of thunderstorms has gradually shifted southeast
off the Florida Panhandle coast by 06Z. There are some indications
in surface observations that there may be a subtle mesohigh just
offshore, which would create a convergence zone roughly near the
Panhandle coast early this morning. Additionally, MSAS analysis
shows a surface trough extending in a west-east fashion just
inland of the Gulf coast. Convection-allowing models that have
been initialized at 00Z appear to give credence to these features
as a potential convective focus this morning. Nearly all of the
CAMs, regardless of whether or not they are resolving current
offshore convection accurately, show some sort of convective
development in the Florida Panhandle 12-16Z - filling in across
the remainder of our Florida zones in the late morning and early
afternoon. This also happens to coincide with a maximum in PWATs -
as indicated by GOES blended TPW and RAP analysis. We included a
region of 60% PoPs in the Florida Panhandle 12-18Z from
Tallahassee and to the west. For the rest of the day, models
indicate some scattered thunderstorms will remain possible but
very few show more widespread coverage. Therefore, we opted for a
broad 50% PoP in the afternoon hours. Given the possibility for an
early start to convection, highs in the Florida zones may be
closer to 90 degrees, with slightly higher values further inland
in our Alabama and Georgia zones.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
Ridging remains located off to the east of the region with a
trough moving across the Tennessee River Valley on Tuesday. With
the presence of this trough nearby and still plenty of deep layer
moisture available, expect above normal storm coverage during the
daytime hours. With more storm coverage, expect daytime highs to
generally be in the lower 90s across the area.
By Wednesday, most of the model guidance show deep layer moisture
decreasing which should result in less storm coverage so will show
slightly lower pops than on Tuesday. If some of the guidance is
correct, additional downward adjustments in rain chances may be
necessary. With mid level ridging trying to build back over the
region by Wednesday and less storm coverage expected, temperatures
will be warmer with highs in the mid 90s away from the coast.
.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
Much of the same for the extended range forecast as the local area
will likely remain sandwiched between an upper ridge and upper
trough, with only weak synoptic forcing. Most afternoons will be
dominated by seabreeze convection. Rain chances will remain near
average with high temperatures in the middle to upper 90s.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday]
Through 13Z, some patchy MVFR VIS in light fog will be possible,
but otherwise VFR will prevail with multiple cloud layers. DHN has
had a few instances of IFR/LIFR CIGS in recent hours, but this has
not been sustained for lengthy periods of time. If that becomes
the case, an amendment may become necessary there. Thunderstorm
redevelopment is expected in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend in
the morning, especially 12-16Z. The most likely impacts from
thunderstorms would be at ECP, TLH, and VLD. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon. +TSRA could
produce some IFR VIS and brief gusty winds.
&&
.Marine...
A fairly typical summertime pattern will result in light winds and
low seas throughout the next several days.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected.
&&
.Hydrology...
Rainfall totals for the next 5-7 days will range from 1 to 2 inches
across the area. With all rivers below bank full stage, this
rainfall is not expected to cause significant rises on area rivers.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 90 73 91 72 94 / 60 30 40 20 40
Panama City 87 75 89 76 90 / 60 30 30 20 30
Dothan 91 72 91 72 94 / 50 40 50 30 40
Albany 93 72 91 72 93 / 50 40 60 30 40
Valdosta 92 71 91 71 94 / 50 40 50 30 40
Cross City 90 71 92 71 93 / 50 30 30 20 30
Apalachicola 87 74 89 75 90 / 60 30 30 20 30
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
256 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1147 AM CDT
STILL EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. THIS WAS IN THE REGION OF BETTER SURFACE HEATING AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS. A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS NOW
MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA AS DEPICTED BOTH
BY THE LATEST RAP FORECASTS AS WELL AS THE SPC MESOANALYSIS. THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION OF
INCREASING MOISTURE...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE AND
UNDER THE WEAK MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVES SPINNING THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH. THE RADAR MOSAIC AT THE NOON HOUR WAS STARTING TO HINT AT
THIS DEVELOPMENT...AND THE VISIBILE SATELLITE CHANNEL WAS SHOWING
SIGNS OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE. MILD AIR ALOFT AND THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS AT UPPER
LEVELS ARE RESULTING IN TALL SKINNY SOUNDINGS WITH LITTLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BE A PROBLEM BUT
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT A LARGE CONCERN.
THE MOST FAVORABLE AXIS FOR DEVELOPMENT THEN SHIFTS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE CHICAGO METRO AREA BY LATE EVENING.
LENNING
//PREV DISCUSSION...
305 AM CDT
A HANDFUL OF FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS FINAL FULL WEEK OF
JUNE...ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR TO BE A MORE QUIET WEEK THAN
LAST...WITH LESS WIDESPREAD STORM/HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES. ITEMS OF
CONCERN THIS MORNING INCLUDE RAIN AND THUNDER COVERAGE TODAY AS
WELL AS FOG POSSIBILITIES NEAR THE LAKE SHORE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING IT IS A MESSY MID-LEVEL PATTERN WITH
MULTIPLE SMALL SCALE IMPULSES FROM KS TO WI SEEN ON A LONG LOOP OF
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR CHANNEL. OVERALL THOUGH THESE FEATURES COMPOSE
AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL INCH EASTWARD LIKELY CLEARING
THE AREA BY OR DURING OVERNIGHT. QG FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OBSERVED
OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES...SHOULD SUPPORT MODEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED/EMBEDDED THUNDER
WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED AHEAD OF ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
IMPULSES...WITH 500-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE TO WORK WITH THROUGH THE
MORNING PER CURRENT AMDAR DATA AND RAP FORECASTS THROUGH MIDDAY.
DID OUR BEST TO ADD TEMPORAL RESOLUTION IN THE FORECAST OF HIGHER
POPS TODAY...WITH THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST DURING
THE DAY. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME POSSIBLY DEEPER
CONVECTION NEAR MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING MORE ROOTED IN THE
MIXED LAYER GIVEN SURFACE HEATING. WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
/AOB 25 KT/ AND ANY MODEST DCAPE BEING CONDITIONAL ON SOME
SUNSHINE WHICH THERE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH OF...THINK SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL IS SMALL AND THAT CHANCE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.
OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE INDICATING THE LEAST
DENSE THE FOG HAS BEEN NEAR THE LAKE SHORE IN SEVERAL MORNINGS.
THUS ITS POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY MAY BE CANCELLED NEAR SUNRISE
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS LOOK. A LIGHT FLOW PATTERN TODAY MAY FAVOR
A LAKE BREEZE...THOUGH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS COULD DISRUPT
THE WIND FIELD AND LAKE FOG. IN ADDITION...LATE DAY VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SUNDAY INDICATED THE FOG OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MI HAD BECOME MORE THIN...SO NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A BIG DEAL
MUCH OF TODAY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. DEPENDING ON EXACT FRONTAL
TIMING...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY SPREAD BRIEFLY INLAND AGAIN THIS
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA OVERNIGHT BEHIND
FROPA WITH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW SHIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A LITTLE MORE OF A NORTHWEST PUSH ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING BEHIND A SECONDARY COOL FRONT. ALONG THIS FEATURE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AS A JET STREAK
AND ASSOCIATED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVE OVER THE BOUNDARY DURING
PEAK HEATING. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP ONLY IN THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES.
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE
TO KEY IN ON FOR SHOWER OR STORM CHANCES. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
POSSIBLY A SHORT WAVE DEPENDING ON WHICH LONG RANGE MODEL ONE
LOOKS AT INDICATE SOME STORM POTENTIAL LATER THURSDAY...BUT
OVERALL NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THIS AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH MORE SO
NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
LOOKS TO HAVE SHORELINE HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
ENERGY FROM A PERSIST GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND WESTERN CANADA DURING THIS PERIOD AND IN
RESPONSE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGIONS. THE EC HAS TRENDED DOWN FROM THE HEIGHTS AND 850MB
TEMPS IT HAD 24 HOURS AGO...BUT STILL SUPPORTIVE OF AROUND 90
DEGREES FOR WEEKEND HIGHS IF NOT IMPACTED BY ANY CONVECTION...WHICH
THERE LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR AT THIS POINT.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* INCREASING TSRA COVERAGE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS. MAINLY
SHRA WITH ISOLATED TSRA AT THE TERMINALS.
* UNCERTAIN WIND DIRECTION...WESTERLY IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM BUT
FAVORING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT...THEN
VEERING WESTERLY AGAIN TONIGHT. SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS.
* PATCHY MVFR CIGS BUT TRENDING MOSTLY VFR. MVFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINIOS
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA WHICH IS POSING PROBLEMS FOR INBOUND AND
OUTBOUD FLIGHTS...BUT MAINLY JUST SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA ARE
EXPECTED AROUND THE TERMINAL AREAS. CEILINGS HAD LOWERED TO MVFR
RANGE BRIEFLY BUT NOW ARE HEADING BACK UP...AND VSBY CONDITIONS
GENERALLY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS
NEAR THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE PEAK COVERAGE STILL IS EXPECTED
TOWARD MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST FOCUS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT EAST BY LATE EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST AS A FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT.
TUESDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...WITH AN AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE LIKELY
DEVELOPING IN THE LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
LENNING
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SHRA COVERAGE...AND MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT MOST TSRA STAYS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CIGS/VSBYS AWAY FROM SHOWERS.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION...BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SPEEDS.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANCE TSRA. OTHERWISE
VFR.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
223 PM CDT
WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY BOTH SUGGEST DENSE FOG IS STILL OVER
THE LAKE...SO WILL KEEP THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING. THERE IS A
LITTLE CONCERN THAT THE FOG MAY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DO
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY NOW.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT
AND WINDS WILL NW TO W BEHIND THE FRONT. THE BAGGY TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD TOMORROW AND EXPECTING ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAKE
IN THE AFTERNOON. A SECOND COLD FRONT SINKS DOWN THE LAKE IN THE
EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH 10-15 KT BEHIND IT. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT OUT OF THE N TO NE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS THEN VEER TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 KT SUNDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-
LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-
LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
224 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1147 AM CDT
STILL EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. THIS WAS IN THE REGION OF BETTER SURFACE HEATING AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS. A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS NOW
MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA AS DEPICTED BOTH
BY THE LATEST RAP FORECASTS AS WELL AS THE SPC MESOANALYSIS. THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION OF
INCREASING MOISTURE...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE AND
UNDER THE WEAK MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVES SPINNING THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH. THE RADAR MOSAIC AT THE NOON HOUR WAS STARTING TO HINT AT
THIS DEVELOPMENT...AND THE VISIBILE SATELLITE CHANNEL WAS SHOWING
SIGNS OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE. MILD AIR ALOFT AND THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS AT UPPER
LEVELS ARE RESULTING IN TALL SKINNY SOUNDINGS WITH LITTLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BE A PROBLEM BUT
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT A LARGE CONCERN.
THE MOST FAVORABLE AXIS FOR DEVELOPMENT THEN SHIFTS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE CHICAGO METRO AREA BY LATE EVENING.
LENNING
//PREV DISCUSSION...
305 AM CDT
A HANDFUL OF FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS FINAL FULL WEEK OF
JUNE...ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR TO BE A MORE QUIET WEEK THAN
LAST...WITH LESS WIDESPREAD STORM/HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES. ITEMS OF
CONCERN THIS MORNING INCLUDE RAIN AND THUNDER COVERAGE TODAY AS
WELL AS FOG POSSIBILITIES NEAR THE LAKE SHORE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING IT IS A MESSY MID-LEVEL PATTERN WITH
MULTIPLE SMALL SCALE IMPULSES FROM KS TO WI SEEN ON A LONG LOOP OF
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR CHANNEL. OVERALL THOUGH THESE FEATURES COMPOSE
AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL INCH EASTWARD LIKELY CLEARING
THE AREA BY OR DURING OVERNIGHT. QG FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OBSERVED
OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES...SHOULD SUPPORT MODEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED/EMBEDDED THUNDER
WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED AHEAD OF ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
IMPULSES...WITH 500-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE TO WORK WITH THROUGH THE
MORNING PER CURRENT AMDAR DATA AND RAP FORECASTS THROUGH MIDDAY.
DID OUR BEST TO ADD TEMPORAL RESOLUTION IN THE FORECAST OF HIGHER
POPS TODAY...WITH THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST DURING
THE DAY. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME POSSIBLY DEEPER
CONVECTION NEAR MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING MORE ROOTED IN THE
MIXED LAYER GIVEN SURFACE HEATING. WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
/AOB 25 KT/ AND ANY MODEST DCAPE BEING CONDITIONAL ON SOME
SUNSHINE WHICH THERE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH OF...THINK SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL IS SMALL AND THAT CHANCE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.
OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE INDICATING THE LEAST
DENSE THE FOG HAS BEEN NEAR THE LAKE SHORE IN SEVERAL MORNINGS.
THUS ITS POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY MAY BE CANCELLED NEAR SUNRISE
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS LOOK. A LIGHT FLOW PATTERN TODAY MAY FAVOR
A LAKE BREEZE...THOUGH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS COULD DISRUPT
THE WIND FIELD AND LAKE FOG. IN ADDITION...LATE DAY VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SUNDAY INDICATED THE FOG OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MI HAD BECOME MORE THIN...SO NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A BIG DEAL
MUCH OF TODAY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. DEPENDING ON EXACT FRONTAL
TIMING...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY SPREAD BRIEFLY INLAND AGAIN THIS
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA OVERNIGHT BEHIND
FROPA WITH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW SHIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A LITTLE MORE OF A NORTHWEST PUSH ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING BEHIND A SECONDARY COOL FRONT. ALONG THIS FEATURE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AS A JET STREAK
AND ASSOCIATED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVE OVER THE BOUNDARY DURING
PEAK HEATING. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP ONLY IN THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES.
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE
TO KEY IN ON FOR SHOWER OR STORM CHANCES. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
POSSIBLY A SHORT WAVE DEPENDING ON WHICH LONG RANGE MODEL ONE
LOOKS AT INDICATE SOME STORM POTENTIAL LATER THURSDAY...BUT
OVERALL NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THIS AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH MORE SO
NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
LOOKS TO HAVE SHORELINE HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
ENERGY FROM A PERSIST GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND WESTERN CANADA DURING THIS PERIOD AND IN
RESPONSE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGIONS. THE EC HAS TRENDED DOWN FROM THE HEIGHTS AND 850MB
TEMPS IT HAD 24 HOURS AGO...BUT STILL SUPPORTIVE OF AROUND 90
DEGREES FOR WEEKEND HIGHS IF NOT IMPACTED BY ANY CONVECTION...WHICH
THERE LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR AT THIS POINT.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
* SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER ACTIVITY.
* WINDS LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH...GRADUALLY VEERING NORTHWEST.
* LAKE BREEZE LIKELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINIOS
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA MAY POSE PROBLEMS FOR INBOUND AND OUTBOUD
FLIGHTS...BUT MAINLY JUST SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA ARE EXPECTED
AROUND THE TERMINAL AREAS. CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR RANGE MAY
PROMPT A TAF AMENDMENT A BIT SOONER THAN EXPECTED...THOUGH VSBY
CONDITIONS GENERALLY ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR EXCEPT FOR BRIEF
PERIODS NEAR THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE PEAK COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TOWARD MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST FOCUS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT EAST BY LATE EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH BEFORE GRADUALLY VEERING SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST AS A FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. TUESDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...WITH AN
AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE LIKELY DEVELOPING IN THE LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
LENNING
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS STAYING ABOVE MVFR...BUT
HIGHER ON VSBYS STAYING VFR.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION TRENDS...HIGHER ON SPEED TRENDS.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANCE TSRA. OTHERWISE
VFR.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
223 PM CDT
WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY BOTH SUGGEST DENSE FOG IS STILL OVER
THE LAKE...SO WILL KEEP THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING. THERE IS A
LITTLE CONCERN THAT THE FOG MAY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT DO
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY NOW.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE TONIGHT
AND WINDS WILL NW TO W BEHIND THE FRONT. THE BAGGY TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD TOMORROW AND EXPECTING ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAKE
IN THE AFTERNOON. A SECOND COLD FRONT SINKS DOWN THE LAKE IN THE
EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH 10-15 KT BEHIND IT. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT OUT OF THE N TO NE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS THEN VEER TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 KT SUNDAY.
JEE
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-
LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-
LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
115 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1147 AM CDT
STILL EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. THIS WAS IN THE REGION OF BETTER SURFACE HEATING AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS. A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS NOW
MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA AS DEPICTED BOTH
BY THE LATEST RAP FORECASTS AS WELL AS THE SPC MESOANALYSIS. THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION OF
INCREASING MOISTURE...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE AND
UNDER THE WEAK MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVES SPINNING THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH. THE RADAR MOSAIC AT THE NOON HOUR WAS STARTING TO HINT AT
THIS DEVELOPMENT...AND THE VISIBILE SATELLITE CHANNEL WAS SHOWING
SIGNS OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE. MILD AIR ALOFT AND THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS AT UPPER
LEVELS ARE RESULTING IN TALL SKINNY SOUNDINGS WITH LITTLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BE A PROBLEM BUT
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT A LARGE CONCERN.
THE MOST FAVORABLE AXIS FOR DEVELOPMENT THEN SHIFTS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE CHICAGO METRO AREA BY LATE EVENING.
LENNING
//PREV DISCUSSION...
305 AM CDT
A HANDFUL OF FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS FINAL FULL WEEK OF
JUNE...ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR TO BE A MORE QUIET WEEK THAN
LAST...WITH LESS WIDESPREAD STORM/HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES. ITEMS OF
CONCERN THIS MORNING INCLUDE RAIN AND THUNDER COVERAGE TODAY AS
WELL AS FOG POSSIBILITIES NEAR THE LAKE SHORE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING IT IS A MESSY MID-LEVEL PATTERN WITH
MULTIPLE SMALL SCALE IMPULSES FROM KS TO WI SEEN ON A LONG LOOP OF
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR CHANNEL. OVERALL THOUGH THESE FEATURES COMPOSE
AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL INCH EASTWARD LIKELY CLEARING
THE AREA BY OR DURING OVERNIGHT. QG FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OBSERVED
OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES...SHOULD SUPPORT MODEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED/EMBEDDED THUNDER
WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED AHEAD OF ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
IMPULSES...WITH 500-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE TO WORK WITH THROUGH THE
MORNING PER CURRENT AMDAR DATA AND RAP FORECASTS THROUGH MIDDAY.
DID OUR BEST TO ADD TEMPORAL RESOLUTION IN THE FORECAST OF HIGHER
POPS TODAY...WITH THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST DURING
THE DAY. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME POSSIBLY DEEPER
CONVECTION NEAR MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING MORE ROOTED IN THE
MIXED LAYER GIVEN SURFACE HEATING. WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
/AOB 25 KT/ AND ANY MODEST DCAPE BEING CONDITIONAL ON SOME
SUNSHINE WHICH THERE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH OF...THINK SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL IS SMALL AND THAT CHANCE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.
OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE INDICATING THE LEAST
DENSE THE FOG HAS BEEN NEAR THE LAKE SHORE IN SEVERAL MORNINGS.
THUS ITS POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY MAY BE CANCELLED NEAR SUNRISE
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS LOOK. A LIGHT FLOW PATTERN TODAY MAY FAVOR
A LAKE BREEZE...THOUGH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS COULD DISRUPT
THE WIND FIELD AND LAKE FOG. IN ADDITION...LATE DAY VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SUNDAY INDICATED THE FOG OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MI HAD BECOME MORE THIN...SO NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A BIG DEAL
MUCH OF TODAY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. DEPENDING ON EXACT FRONTAL
TIMING...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY SPREAD BRIEFLY INLAND AGAIN THIS
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA OVERNIGHT BEHIND
FROPA WITH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW SHIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A LITTLE MORE OF A NORTHWEST PUSH ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING BEHIND A SECONDARY COOL FRONT. ALONG THIS FEATURE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AS A JET STREAK
AND ASSOCIATED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVE OVER THE BOUNDARY DURING
PEAK HEATING. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP ONLY IN THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES.
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE
TO KEY IN ON FOR SHOWER OR STORM CHANCES. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
POSSIBLY A SHORT WAVE DEPENDING ON WHICH LONG RANGE MODEL ONE
LOOKS AT INDICATE SOME STORM POTENTIAL LATER THURSDAY...BUT
OVERALL NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THIS AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH MORE SO
NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
LOOKS TO HAVE SHORELINE HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
ENERGY FROM A PERSIST GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND WESTERN CANADA DURING THIS PERIOD AND IN
RESPONSE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGIONS. THE EC HAS TRENDED DOWN FROM THE HEIGHTS AND 850MB
TEMPS IT HAD 24 HOURS AGO...BUT STILL SUPPORTIVE OF AROUND 90
DEGREES FOR WEEKEND HIGHS IF NOT IMPACTED BY ANY CONVECTION...WHICH
THERE LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR AT THIS POINT.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
* SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER ACTIVITY.
* WINDS LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH...GRADUALLY VEERING NORTHWEST.
* LAKE BREEZE LIKELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINIOS
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA MAY POSE PROBLEMS FOR INBOUND AND OUTBOUD
FLIGHTS...BUT MAINLY JUST SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA ARE EXPECTED
AROUND THE TERMINAL AREAS. CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR RANGE MAY
PROMPT A TAF AMENDMENT A BIT SOONER THAN EXPECTED...THOUGH VSBY
CONDITIONS GENERALLY ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR EXCEPT FOR BRIEF
PERIODS NEAR THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE PEAK COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TOWARD MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST FOCUS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT EAST BY LATE EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH BEFORE GRADUALLY VEERING SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST AS A FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. TUESDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...WITH AN
AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZE LIKELY DEVELOPING IN THE LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
LENNING
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS STAYING ABOVE MVFR...BUT
HIGHER ON VSBYS STAYING VFR.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION TRENDS...HIGHER ON SPEED TRENDS.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANCE TSRA. OTHERWISE
VFR.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
315 AM CDT
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. THE RESULTANT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE STILL VERY COLD
LAKE WATERS HAS KEPT DENSE FOG IN PLACE. THE DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY ERODED BY A TROUGH OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MONDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY NIGHT TURNING WINDS FROM LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
SCOUR OUT THE FOG FROM THE LAKE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP
DOWN THE LAKE TUESDAY TURNING WINDS NORTHERLY BRINGING AN END TO
ANY RESIDUAL FOG AS DRIER AIR FILTERS OVER THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE RELATIVELY QUIET...BUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE LAKE AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-
LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-
LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1213 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1147 AM CDT
STILL EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA. THIS WAS IN THE REGION OF BETTER SURFACE HEATING AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS. A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS NOW
MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST INDIANA AS DEPICTED BOTH
BY THE LATEST RAP FORECASTS AS WELL AS THE SPC MESOANALYSIS. THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION OF
INCREASING MOISTURE...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE AND
UNDER THE WEAK MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVES SPINNING THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH. THE RADAR MOSAIC AT THE NOON HOUR WAS STARTING TO HINT AT
THIS DEVELOPMENT...AND THE VISIBILE SATELLITE CHANNEL WAS SHOWING
SIGNS OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT WOULD FURTHER ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE. MILD AIR ALOFT AND THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS AT UPPER
LEVELS ARE RESULTING IN TALL SKINNY SOUNDINGS WITH LITTLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BE A PROBLEM BUT
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT A LARGE CONCERN.
THE MOST FAVORABLE AXIS FOR DEVELOPMENT THEN SHIFTS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE CHICAGO METRO AREA BY LATE EVENING.
LENNING
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
305 AM CDT
A HANDFUL OF FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS FINAL FULL WEEK OF
JUNE...ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR TO BE A MORE QUIET WEEK THAN
LAST...WITH LESS WIDESPREAD STORM/HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES. ITEMS OF
CONCERN THIS MORNING INCLUDE RAIN AND THUNDER COVERAGE TODAY AS
WELL AS FOG POSSIBILITIES NEAR THE LAKE SHORE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING IT IS A MESSY MID-LEVEL PATTERN WITH
MULTIPLE SMALL SCALE IMPULSES FROM KS TO WI SEEN ON A LONG LOOP OF
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR CHANNEL. OVERALL THOUGH THESE FEATURES COMPOSE
AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL INCH EASTWARD LIKELY CLEARING
THE AREA BY OR DURING OVERNIGHT. QG FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OBSERVED
OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES...SHOULD SUPPORT MODEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED/EMBEDDED THUNDER
WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED AHEAD OF ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
IMPULSES...WITH 500-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE TO WORK WITH THROUGH THE
MORNING PER CURRENT AMDAR DATA AND RAP FORECASTS THROUGH MIDDAY.
DID OUR BEST TO ADD TEMPORAL RESOLUTION IN THE FORECAST OF HIGHER
POPS TODAY...WITH THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST DURING
THE DAY. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME POSSIBLY DEEPER
CONVECTION NEAR MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING MORE ROOTED IN THE
MIXED LAYER GIVEN SURFACE HEATING. WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
/AOB 25 KT/ AND ANY MODEST DCAPE BEING CONDITIONAL ON SOME
SUNSHINE WHICH THERE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH OF...THINK SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL IS SMALL AND THAT CHANCE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.
OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE INDICATING THE LEAST
DENSE THE FOG HAS BEEN NEAR THE LAKE SHORE IN SEVERAL MORNINGS.
THUS ITS POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY MAY BE CANCELLED NEAR SUNRISE
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS LOOK. A LIGHT FLOW PATTERN TODAY MAY FAVOR
A LAKE BREEZE...THOUGH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS COULD DISRUPT
THE WIND FIELD AND LAKE FOG. IN ADDITION...LATE DAY VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SUNDAY INDICATED THE FOG OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MI HAD BECOME MORE THIN...SO NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A BIG DEAL
MUCH OF TODAY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. DEPENDING ON EXACT FRONTAL
TIMING...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY SPREAD BRIEFLY INLAND AGAIN THIS
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA OVERNIGHT BEHIND
FROPA WITH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW SHIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A LITTLE MORE OF A NORTHWEST PUSH ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING BEHIND A SECONDARY COOL FRONT. ALONG THIS FEATURE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AS A JET STREAK
AND ASSOCIATED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVE OVER THE BOUNDARY DURING
PEAK HEATING. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP ONLY IN THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES.
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE
TO KEY IN ON FOR SHOWER OR STORM CHANCES. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
POSSIBLY A SHORT WAVE DEPENDING ON WHICH LONG RANGE MODEL ONE
LOOKS AT INDICATE SOME STORM POTENTIAL LATER THURSDAY...BUT
OVERALL NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THIS AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH MORE SO
NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
LOOKS TO HAVE SHORELINE HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
ENERGY FROM A PERSIST GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND WESTERN CANADA DURING THIS PERIOD AND IN
RESPONSE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGIONS. THE EC HAS TRENDED DOWN FROM THE HEIGHTS AND 850MB
TEMPS IT HAD 24 HOURS AGO...BUT STILL SUPPORTIVE OF AROUND 90
DEGREES FOR WEEKEND HIGHS IF NOT IMPACTED BY ANY CONVECTION...WHICH
THERE LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR AT THIS POINT.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* INCREASING SHRA COVERAGE EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED TSRA.
* POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS BUT GENERALLY VFR.
* VARIABLE WINDS...SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY...VEERING WEST LATE.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
THE PCPN FORECAST REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUING WITH THE TSRA POTENTIAL. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA
REMAINS VERY MOIST AND SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST WEAKLY UNSTABLE
THROUGH THE DAY. A MODERATE SHORTWAVE ALOFT HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE
LOW AS THERE WILL BE ONLY A MINOR AIRMASS CHANGE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND A WINDSHIFT FROM LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO LIGHT NWLY
WINDS. THERE MAY BE A FEW GUSTS TO ARND 15KT IN THE WEAK WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10KT
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE TRENDS
INDICATE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE ALOFT THAN PREVIOUSLY NOTED...SO HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE TSRA POTENTIAL IN THE TAFS. STILL FEEL
THAT THE BEST TIMING WILL BE AT SOME POINT DURG THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT TSRA COULD END UP BEING MORE ISOLD/EMBEDDED THAN
ORGANIZED SO HAVE GONE WITH VCTS WORDING. THIS SHOULD STILL
COINCIDE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD THEN
BE DRY WITH NWLY WINDS LESS THAN 10KT AND VFR CIGS/VIS.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF INCREASING SHRA COVERAGE AND ONLY ISOLATED
TSRA.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION TRENDS...HIGHER CONFIDENCE
ON SPEED TRENDS.
* HIGH TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF PREVAILING VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANCE TSRA. OTHERWISE
VFR.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
315 AM CDT
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. THE RESULTANT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE STILL VERY COLD
LAKE WATERS HAS KEPT DENSE FOG IN PLACE. THE DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY ERODED BY A TROUGH OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MONDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY NIGHT TURNING WINDS FROM LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
SCOUR OUT THE FOG FROM THE LAKE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP
DOWN THE LAKE TUESDAY TURNING WINDS NORTHERLY BRINGING AN END TO
ANY RESIDUAL FOG AS DRIER AIR FILTERS OVER THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE RELATIVELY QUIET...BUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE LAKE AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-
LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-
LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1109 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
305 AM CDT
A HANDFUL OF FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS FINAL FULL WEEK OF
JUNE...ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR TO BE A MORE QUIET WEEK THAN
LAST...WITH LESS WIDESPREAD STORM/HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES. ITEMS OF
CONCERN THIS MORNING INCLUDE RAIN AND THUNDER COVERAGE TODAY AS
WELL AS FOG POSSIBILITIES NEAR THE LAKE SHORE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING IT IS A MESSY MID-LEVEL PATTERN WITH
MULTIPLE SMALL SCALE IMPULSES FROM KS TO WI SEEN ON A LONG LOOP OF
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR CHANNEL. OVERALL THOUGH THESE FEATURES COMPOSE
AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL INCH EASTWARD LIKELY CLEARING
THE AREA BY OR DURING OVERNIGHT. QG FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OBSERVED
OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES...SHOULD SUPPORT MODEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED/EMBEDDED THUNDER
WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED AHEAD OF ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
IMPULSES...WITH 500-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE TO WORK WITH THROUGH THE
MORNING PER CURRENT AMDAR DATA AND RAP FORECASTS THROUGH MIDDAY.
DID OUR BEST TO ADD TEMPORAL RESOLUTION IN THE FORECAST OF HIGHER
POPS TODAY...WITH THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST DURING
THE DAY. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME POSSIBLY DEEPER
CONVECTION NEAR MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING MORE ROOTED IN THE
MIXED LAYER GIVEN SURFACE HEATING. WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
/AOB 25 KT/ AND ANY MODEST DCAPE BEING CONDITIONAL ON SOME
SUNSHINE WHICH THERE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH OF...THINK SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL IS SMALL AND THAT CHANCE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.
OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE INDICATING THE LEAST
DENSE THE FOG HAS BEEN NEAR THE LAKE SHORE IN SEVERAL MORNINGS.
THUS ITS POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY MAY BE CANCELLED NEAR SUNRISE
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS LOOK. A LIGHT FLOW PATTERN TODAY MAY FAVOR
A LAKE BREEZE...THOUGH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS COULD DISRUPT
THE WIND FIELD AND LAKE FOG. IN ADDITION...LATE DAY VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SUNDAY INDICATED THE FOG OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MI HAD BECOME MORE THIN...SO NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A BIG DEAL
MUCH OF TODAY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. DEPENDING ON EXACT FRONTAL
TIMING...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY SPREAD BRIEFLY INLAND AGAIN THIS
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA OVERNIGHT BEHIND
FROPA WITH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW SHIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A LITTLE MORE OF A NORTHWEST PUSH ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING BEHIND A SECONDARY COOL FRONT. ALONG THIS FEATURE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AS A JET STREAK
AND ASSOCIATED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVE OVER THE BOUNDARY DURING
PEAK HEATING. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP ONLY IN THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES.
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE
TO KEY IN ON FOR SHOWER OR STORM CHANCES. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
POSSIBLY A SHORT WAVE DEPENDING ON WHICH LONG RANGE MODEL ONE
LOOKS AT INDICATE SOME STORM POTENTIAL LATER THURSDAY...BUT
OVERALL NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THIS AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH MORE SO
NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
LOOKS TO HAVE SHORELINE HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
ENERGY FROM A PERSIST GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND WESTERN CANADA DURING THIS PERIOD AND IN
RESPONSE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGIONS. THE EC HAS TRENDED DOWN FROM THE HEIGHTS AND 850MB
TEMPS IT HAD 24 HOURS AGO...BUT STILL SUPPORTIVE OF AROUND 90
DEGREES FOR WEEKEND HIGHS IF NOT IMPACTED BY ANY CONVECTION...WHICH
THERE LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR AT THIS POINT.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* INCREASING SHRA COVERAGE EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED TSRA.
* POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS BUT GENERALLY VFR.
* VARIABLE WINDS...SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY...VEERING WEST LATE.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
THE PCPN FORECAST REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUING WITH THE TSRA POTENTIAL. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA
REMAINS VERY MOIST AND SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST WEAKLY UNSTABLE
THROUGH THE DAY. A MODERATE SHORTWAVE ALOFT HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE
LOW AS THERE WILL BE ONLY A MINOR AIRMASS CHANGE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND A WINDSHIFT FROM LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO LIGHT NWLY
WINDS. THERE MAY BE A FEW GUSTS TO ARND 15KT IN THE WEAK WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10KT
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE TRENDS
INDICATE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE ALOFT THAN PREVIOUSLY NOTED...SO HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE TSRA POTENTIAL IN THE TAFS. STILL FEEL
THAT THE BEST TIMING WILL BE AT SOME POINT DURG THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT TSRA COULD END UP BEING MORE ISOLD/EMBEDDED THAN
ORGANIZED SO HAVE GONE WITH VCTS WORDING. THIS SHOULD STILL
COINCIDE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD THEN
BE DRY WITH NWLY WINDS LESS THAN 10KT AND VFR CIGS/VIS.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF INCREASING SHRA COVERAGE AND ONLY ISOLATED
TSRA.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION TRENDS...HIGHER CONFIDENCE
ON SPEED TRENDS.
* HIGH TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF PREVAILING VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANCE TSRA. OTHERWISE
VFR.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
315 AM CDT
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. THE RESULTANT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE STILL VERY COLD
LAKE WATERS HAS KEPT DENSE FOG IN PLACE. THE DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY ERODED BY A TROUGH OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MONDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY NIGHT TURNING WINDS FROM LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
SCOUR OUT THE FOG FROM THE LAKE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP
DOWN THE LAKE TUESDAY TURNING WINDS NORTHERLY BRINGING AN END TO
ANY RESIDUAL FOG AS DRIER AIR FILTERS OVER THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE RELATIVELY QUIET...BUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE LAKE AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-
LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-
LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
917 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
305 AM CDT
A HANDFUL OF FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS FINAL FULL WEEK OF
JUNE...ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR TO BE A MORE QUIET WEEK THAN
LAST...WITH LESS WIDESPREAD STORM/HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES. ITEMS OF
CONCERN THIS MORNING INCLUDE RAIN AND THUNDER COVERAGE TODAY AS
WELL AS FOG POSSIBILITIES NEAR THE LAKE SHORE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING IT IS A MESSY MID-LEVEL PATTERN WITH
MULTIPLE SMALL SCALE IMPULSES FROM KS TO WI SEEN ON A LONG LOOP OF
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR CHANNEL. OVERALL THOUGH THESE FEATURES COMPOSE
AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL INCH EASTWARD LIKELY CLEARING
THE AREA BY OR DURING OVERNIGHT. QG FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OBSERVED
OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES...SHOULD SUPPORT MODEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED/EMBEDDED THUNDER
WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED AHEAD OF ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
IMPULSES...WITH 500-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE TO WORK WITH THROUGH THE
MORNING PER CURRENT AMDAR DATA AND RAP FORECASTS THROUGH MIDDAY.
DID OUR BEST TO ADD TEMPORAL RESOLUTION IN THE FORECAST OF HIGHER
POPS TODAY...WITH THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST DURING
THE DAY. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME POSSIBLY DEEPER
CONVECTION NEAR MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING MORE ROOTED IN THE
MIXED LAYER GIVEN SURFACE HEATING. WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
/AOB 25 KT/ AND ANY MODEST DCAPE BEING CONDITIONAL ON SOME
SUNSHINE WHICH THERE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH OF...THINK SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL IS SMALL AND THAT CHANCE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.
OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE INDICATING THE LEAST
DENSE THE FOG HAS BEEN NEAR THE LAKE SHORE IN SEVERAL MORNINGS.
THUS ITS POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY MAY BE CANCELLED NEAR SUNRISE
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS LOOK. A LIGHT FLOW PATTERN TODAY MAY FAVOR
A LAKE BREEZE...THOUGH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS COULD DISRUPT
THE WIND FIELD AND LAKE FOG. IN ADDITION...LATE DAY VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SUNDAY INDICATED THE FOG OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MI HAD BECOME MORE THIN...SO NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A BIG DEAL
MUCH OF TODAY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. DEPENDING ON EXACT FRONTAL
TIMING...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY SPREAD BRIEFLY INLAND AGAIN THIS
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA OVERNIGHT BEHIND
FROPA WITH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW SHIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A LITTLE MORE OF A NORTHWEST PUSH ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING BEHIND A SECONDARY COOL FRONT. ALONG THIS FEATURE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AS A JET STREAK
AND ASSOCIATED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVE OVER THE BOUNDARY DURING
PEAK HEATING. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP ONLY IN THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES.
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE
TO KEY IN ON FOR SHOWER OR STORM CHANCES. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
POSSIBLY A SHORT WAVE DEPENDING ON WHICH LONG RANGE MODEL ONE
LOOKS AT INDICATE SOME STORM POTENTIAL LATER THURSDAY...BUT
OVERALL NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THIS AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH MORE SO
NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
LOOKS TO HAVE SHORELINE HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
ENERGY FROM A PERSIST GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND WESTERN CANADA DURING THIS PERIOD AND IN
RESPONSE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGIONS. THE EC HAS TRENDED DOWN FROM THE HEIGHTS AND 850MB
TEMPS IT HAD 24 HOURS AGO...BUT STILL SUPPORTIVE OF AROUND 90
DEGREES FOR WEEKEND HIGHS IF NOT IMPACTED BY ANY CONVECTION...WHICH
THERE LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR AT THIS POINT.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR. LITTLE TSRA EXPECTED.
* LOW IFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE TERMINALS ALONG THE LAKESHORE.
* WINDS VARIABLE BUT GENERALLY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
THE PCPN FORECAST REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUING WITH THE TSRA POTENTIAL. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA
REMAINS VERY MOIST AND SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST WEAKLY UNSTABLE
THROUGH THE DAY. A MODERATE SHORTWAVE ALOFT HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE
LOW AS THERE WILL BE ONLY A MINOR AIRMASS CHANGE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND A WINDSHIFT FROM LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO LIGHT NWLY
WINDS. THERE MAY BE A FEW GUSTS TO ARND 15KT IN THE WEAK WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10KT
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE TRENDS
INDICATE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE ALOFT THAN PREVIOUSLY NOTED...SO HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE TSRA POTENTIAL IN THE TAFS. STILL FEEL
THAT THE BEST TIMING WILL BE AT SOME POINT DURG THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT TSRA COULD END UP BEING MORE ISOLD/EMBEDDED THAN
ORGANIZED SO HAVE GONE WITH VCTS WORDING. THIS SHOULD STILL
COINCIDE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD THEN
BE DRY WITH NWLY WINDS LESS THAN 10KT AND VFR CIGS/VIS.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION...BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
STAYING RELATIVELY LIGHT...BELOW 10KT SUSTAINED.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIFR STAYING EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANCE TSRA. OTHERWISE
VFR.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
315 AM CDT
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. THE RESULTANT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE STILL VERY COLD
LAKE WATERS HAS KEPT DENSE FOG IN PLACE. THE DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY ERODED BY A TROUGH OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MONDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY NIGHT TURNING WINDS FROM LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
SCOUR OUT THE FOG FROM THE LAKE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP
DOWN THE LAKE TUESDAY TURNING WINDS NORTHERLY BRINGING AN END TO
ANY RESIDUAL FOG AS DRIER AIR FILTERS OVER THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE RELATIVELY QUIET...BUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE LAKE AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-
LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-
LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
646 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
305 AM CDT
A HANDFUL OF FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS FINAL FULL WEEK OF
JUNE...ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR TO BE A MORE QUIET WEEK THAN
LAST...WITH LESS WIDESPREAD STORM/HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES. ITEMS OF
CONCERN THIS MORNING INCLUDE RAIN AND THUNDER COVERAGE TODAY AS
WELL AS FOG POSSIBILITIES NEAR THE LAKE SHORE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING IT IS A MESSY MID-LEVEL PATTERN WITH
MULTIPLE SMALL SCALE IMPULSES FROM KS TO WI SEEN ON A LONG LOOP OF
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR CHANNEL. OVERALL THOUGH THESE FEATURES COMPOSE
AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL INCH EASTWARD LIKELY CLEARING
THE AREA BY OR DURING OVERNIGHT. QG FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OBSERVED
OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES...SHOULD SUPPORT MODEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED/EMBEDDED THUNDER
WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED AHEAD OF ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
IMPULSES...WITH 500-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE TO WORK WITH THROUGH THE
MORNING PER CURRENT AMDAR DATA AND RAP FORECASTS THROUGH MIDDAY.
DID OUR BEST TO ADD TEMPORAL RESOLUTION IN THE FORECAST OF HIGHER
POPS TODAY...WITH THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST DURING
THE DAY. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME POSSIBLY DEEPER
CONVECTION NEAR MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING MORE ROOTED IN THE
MIXED LAYER GIVEN SURFACE HEATING. WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
/AOB 25 KT/ AND ANY MODEST DCAPE BEING CONDITIONAL ON SOME
SUNSHINE WHICH THERE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH OF...THINK SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL IS SMALL AND THAT CHANCE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.
OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE INDICATING THE LEAST
DENSE THE FOG HAS BEEN NEAR THE LAKE SHORE IN SEVERAL MORNINGS.
THUS ITS POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY MAY BE CANCELLED NEAR SUNRISE
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS LOOK. A LIGHT FLOW PATTERN TODAY MAY FAVOR
A LAKE BREEZE...THOUGH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS COULD DISRUPT
THE WIND FIELD AND LAKE FOG. IN ADDITION...LATE DAY VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SUNDAY INDICATED THE FOG OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MI HAD BECOME MORE THIN...SO NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A BIG DEAL
MUCH OF TODAY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. DEPENDING ON EXACT FRONTAL
TIMING...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY SPREAD BRIEFLY INLAND AGAIN THIS
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA OVERNIGHT BEHIND
FROPA WITH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW SHIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A LITTLE MORE OF A NORTHWEST PUSH ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING BEHIND A SECONDARY COOL FRONT. ALONG THIS FEATURE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AS A JET STREAK
AND ASSOCIATED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVE OVER THE BOUNDARY DURING
PEAK HEATING. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP ONLY IN THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES.
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE
TO KEY IN ON FOR SHOWER OR STORM CHANCES. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
POSSIBLY A SHORT WAVE DEPENDING ON WHICH LONG RANGE MODEL ONE
LOOKS AT INDICATE SOME STORM POTENTIAL LATER THURSDAY...BUT
OVERALL NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THIS AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH MORE SO
NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
LOOKS TO HAVE SHORELINE HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
ENERGY FROM A PERSIST GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND WESTERN CANADA DURING THIS PERIOD AND IN
RESPONSE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGIONS. THE EC HAS TRENDED DOWN FROM THE HEIGHTS AND 850MB
TEMPS IT HAD 24 HOURS AGO...BUT STILL SUPPORTIVE OF AROUND 90
DEGREES FOR WEEKEND HIGHS IF NOT IMPACTED BY ANY CONVECTION...WHICH
THERE LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR AT THIS POINT.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* SCT SHRA WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
* SCT SHRA WITH ISOLD TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY INTO EARLY
EVENING.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
THE PCPN FORECAST REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUING WITH THE TSRA POTENTIAL. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA
REMAINS VERY MOIST AND SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST WEAKLY UNSTABLE
THROUGH THE DAY. A MODERATE SHORTWAVE ALOFT HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE
LOW AS THERE WILL BE ONLY A MINOR AIRMASS CHANGE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND A WINDSHIFT FROM LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO LIGHT NWLY
WINDS. THERE MAY BE A FEW GUSTS TO ARND 15KT IN THE WEAK WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10KT
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE TRENDS
INDICATE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE ALOFT THAN PREVIOUSLY NOTED...SO HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE TSRA POTENTIAL IN THE TAFS. STILL FEEL
THAT THE BEST TIMING WILL BE AT SOME POINT DURG THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT TSRA COULD END UP BEING MORE ISOLD/EMBEDDED THAN
ORGANIZED SO HAVE GONE WITH VCTS WORDING. THIS SHOULD STILL
COINCIDE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD THEN
BE DRY WITH NWLY WINDS LESS THAN 10KT AND VFR CIGS/VIS.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSRA TIMING AND COVERAGE.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SCT SHRA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SHRA IMPACTS ON CIG/VIS.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...CHANCE TSRA. OTHERWISE
VFR.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
315 AM CDT
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. THE RESULTANT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE STILL VERY COLD
LAKE WATERS HAS KEPT DENSE FOG IN PLACE. THE DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY ERODED BY A TROUGH OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MONDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY NIGHT TURNING WINDS FROM LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
SCOUR OUT THE FOG FROM THE LAKE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP
DOWN THE LAKE TUESDAY TURNING WINDS NORTHERLY BRINGING AN END TO
ANY RESIDUAL FOG AS DRIER AIR FILTERS OVER THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE RELATIVELY QUIET...BUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE LAKE AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-
LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-
LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
348 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
305 AM CDT
A HANDFUL OF FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS FINAL FULL WEEK OF
JUNE...ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR TO BE A MORE QUIET WEEK THAN
LAST...WITH LESS WIDESPREAD STORM/HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES. ITEMS OF
CONCERN THIS MORNING INCLUDE RAIN AND THUNDER COVERAGE TODAY AS
WELL AS FOG POSSIBILITIES NEAR THE LAKE SHORE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING IT IS A MESSY MID-LEVEL PATTERN WITH
MULTIPLE SMALL SCALE IMPULSES FROM KS TO WI SEEN ON A LONG LOOP OF
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR CHANNEL. OVERALL THOUGH THESE FEATURES COMPOSE
AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL INCH EASTWARD LIKELY CLEARING
THE AREA BY OR DURING OVERNIGHT. QG FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OBSERVED
OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES...SHOULD SUPPORT MODEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED/EMBEDDED THUNDER
WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED AHEAD OF ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
IMPULSES...WITH 500-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE TO WORK WITH THROUGH THE
MORNING PER CURRENT AMDAR DATA AND RAP FORECASTS THROUGH MIDDAY.
DID OUR BEST TO ADD TEMPORAL RESOLUTION IN THE FORECAST OF HIGHER
POPS TODAY...WITH THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST DURING
THE DAY. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME POSSIBLY DEEPER
CONVECTION NEAR MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING MORE ROOTED IN THE
MIXED LAYER GIVEN SURFACE HEATING. WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
/AOB 25 KT/ AND ANY MODEST DCAPE BEING CONDITIONAL ON SOME
SUNSHINE WHICH THERE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH OF...THINK SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL IS SMALL AND THAT CHANCE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.
OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE INDICATING THE LEAST
DENSE THE FOG HAS BEEN NEAR THE LAKE SHORE IN SEVERAL MORNINGS.
THUS ITS POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY MAY BE CANCELLED NEAR SUNRISE
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS LOOK. A LIGHT FLOW PATTERN TODAY MAY FAVOR
A LAKE BREEZE...THOUGH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS COULD DISRUPT
THE WIND FIELD AND LAKE FOG. IN ADDITION...LATE DAY VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SUNDAY INDICATED THE FOG OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MI HAD BECOME MORE THIN...SO NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A BIG DEAL
MUCH OF TODAY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. DEPENDING ON EXACT FRONTAL
TIMING...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY SPREAD BRIEFLY INLAND AGAIN THIS
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA OVERNIGHT BEHIND
FROPA WITH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW SHIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A LITTLE MORE OF A NORTHWEST PUSH ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING BEHIND A SECONDARY COOL FRONT. ALONG THIS FEATURE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AS A JET STREAK
AND ASSOCIATED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVE OVER THE BOUNDARY DURING
PEAK HEATING. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP ONLY IN THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES.
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE
TO KEY IN ON FOR SHOWER OR STORM CHANCES. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
POSSIBLY A SHORT WAVE DEPENDING ON WHICH LONG RANGE MODEL ONE
LOOKS AT INDICATE SOME STORM POTENTIAL LATER THURSDAY...BUT
OVERALL NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THIS AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH MORE SO
NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
LOOKS TO HAVE SHORELINE HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
ENERGY FROM A PERSIST GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND WESTERN CANADA DURING THIS PERIOD AND IN
RESPONSE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGIONS. THE EC HAS TRENDED DOWN FROM THE HEIGHTS AND 850MB
TEMPS IT HAD 24 HOURS AGO...BUT STILL SUPPORTIVE OF AROUND 90
DEGREES FOR WEEKEND HIGHS IF NOT IMPACTED BY ANY CONVECTION...WHICH
THERE LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR AT THIS POINT.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY IN BR/FG/STRATUS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BECOMING LESS LIKELY AS THE
ENVIRONMENT IS STIRRED UP BY ONGOING SHRA.
* SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AND THEN THE TIMING OF TSRA MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE LOWEST CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO HUG THE COAST VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL...OTHER
THAN GYY WHICH IS ONLY AT 3SM BR. THERE IS STILL CONCERN THAT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH AN AREA OF SHRA
MOVING TOWARD NERN IL THE LOWER LEVELS MAY REMAIN AGITATED ENOUGH
TO MAINTAIN THE VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL STILL BE
OPPORTUNITY FOR CIGS OR VIS TO DROP RAPIDLY DURG THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG OOZING INLAND FROM THE LAKEFRONT.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVEN AT THIS SHORT DURATION...WILL
MAINTAIN THE TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR CONDITIONS BUT DELAY THE POSSIBLE
ONSET.
THE PCPN FORECAST HAS EVEN GREATER UNCERTAINTY. THE ENVIRONMENT
OVER NRN IL/IN REMAINS VERY MOIST AND SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST
WEAKLY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. A MODERATE SHORTWAVE
ALOFT HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO CROSS THE
REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK COLD
FRONT. FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE LOW AS THERE WILL BE ONLY A MINOR
AIRMASS CHANGE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A WINDSHIFT FROM LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO LIGHT NWLY WINDS. THERE MAY BE A FEW GUSTS TO
ARND 15KT IN THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10KT BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE TRIED TO
NARROW DOWN THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR TSRA TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS AND ADJUSTED THE PROB30 GROUP TO 19-22Z AT RFD AND
20-23Z AT THE CHICAGO METRO TERMINALS. THIS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND THE WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD THEN BE DRY WITH NWLY
WINDS ARND 10KT AND VFR CIGS/VIS.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* MEDIUM IN CIGS/VIS TRENDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
* HIGH IN SCT SHRA OVERNIGHT...THOUGH IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WIND TRENDS.
* LOW TO MEDIUM IN TSRA TIMING AND COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR. NORTHEAST
WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE FOR TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR. EASTERLY WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE FOR TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLY
BECOMING EAST.
SATURDAY...CHANCE TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
315 AM CDT
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. THE RESULTANT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE STILL VERY COLD
LAKE WATERS HAS KEPT DENSE FOG IN PLACE. THE DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY ERODED BY A TROUGH OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MONDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY NIGHT TURNING WINDS FROM LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
SCOUR OUT THE FOG FROM THE LAKE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP
DOWN THE LAKE TUESDAY TURNING WINDS NORTHERLY BRINGING AN END TO
ANY RESIDUAL FOG AS DRIER AIR FILTERS OVER THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE RELATIVELY QUIET...BUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE LAKE AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-
LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-
LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
323 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
305 AM CDT
A HANDFUL OF FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS FINAL FULL WEEK OF
JUNE...ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR TO BE A MORE QUIET WEEK THAN
LAST...WITH LESS WIDESPREAD STORM/HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES. ITEMS OF
CONCERN THIS MORNING INCLUDE RAIN AND THUNDER COVERAGE TODAY AS
WELL AS FOG POSSIBILITIES NEAR THE LAKE SHORE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING IT IS A MESSY MID-LEVEL PATTERN WITH
MULTIPLE SMALL SCALE IMPULSES FROM KS TO WI SEEN ON A LONG LOOP OF
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR CHANNEL. OVERALL THOUGH THESE FEATURES COMPOSE
AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL INCH EASTWARD LIKELY CLEARING
THE AREA BY OR DURING OVERNIGHT. QG FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OBSERVED
OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES...SHOULD SUPPORT MODEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED/EMBEDDED THUNDER
WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED AHEAD OF ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
IMPULSES...WITH 500-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE TO WORK WITH THROUGH THE
MORNING PER CURRENT AMDAR DATA AND RAP FORECASTS THROUGH MIDDAY.
DID OUR BEST TO ADD TEMPORAL RESOLUTION IN THE FORECAST OF HIGHER
POPS TODAY...WITH THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST DURING
THE DAY. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME POSSIBLY DEEPER
CONVECTION NEAR MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING MORE ROOTED IN THE
MIXED LAYER GIVEN SURFACE HEATING. WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
/AOB 25 KT/ AND ANY MODEST DCAPE BEING CONDITIONAL ON SOME
SUNSHINE WHICH THERE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH OF...THINK SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL IS SMALL AND THAT CHANCE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.
OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE INDICATING THE LEAST
DENSE THE FOG HAS BEEN NEAR THE LAKE SHORE IN SEVERAL MORNINGS.
THUS ITS POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY MAY BE CANCELLED NEAR SUNRISE
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS LOOK. A LIGHT FLOW PATTERN TODAY MAY FAVOR
A LAKE BREEZE...THOUGH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS COULD DISRUPT
THE WIND FIELD AND LAKE FOG. IN ADDITION...LATE DAY VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SUNDAY INDICATED THE FOG OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MI HAD BECOME MORE THIN...SO NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A BIG DEAL
MUCH OF TODAY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. DEPENDING ON EXACT FRONTAL
TIMING...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY SPREAD BRIEFLY INLAND AGAIN THIS
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA OVERNIGHT BEHIND
FROPA WITH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW SHIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A LITTLE MORE OF A NORTHWEST PUSH ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING BEHIND A SECONDARY COOL FRONT. ALONG THIS FEATURE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AS A JET STREAK
AND ASSOCIATED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVE OVER THE BOUNDARY DURING
PEAK HEATING. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP ONLY IN THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES.
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE
TO KEY IN ON FOR SHOWER OR STORM CHANCES. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
POSSIBLY A SHORT WAVE DEPENDING ON WHICH LONG RANGE MODEL ONE
LOOKS AT INDICATE SOME STORM POTENTIAL LATER THURSDAY...BUT
OVERALL NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THIS AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH MORE SO
NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
LOOKS TO HAVE SHORELINE HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
ENERGY FROM A PERSIST GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND WESTERN CANADA DURING THIS PERIOD AND IN
RESPONSE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGIONS. THE EC HAS TRENDED DOWN FROM THE HEIGHTS AND 850MB
TEMPS IT HAD 24 HOURS AGO...BUT STILL SUPPORTIVE OF AROUND 90
DEGREES FOR WEEKEND HIGHS IF NOT IMPACTED BY ANY CONVECTION...WHICH
THERE LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR AT THIS POINT.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY IN BR/FG/STRATUS
OVERNIGHT.
* SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AND THEN THE TIMING OF TSRA MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE LOWEST CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO HUG THE COAST VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL...OTHER
THAN GYY WHICH IS ONLY AT 3SM BR. THERE IS STILL CONCERN THAT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH AN AREA OF SHRA
MOVING TOWARD NERN IL THE LOWER LEVELS MAY REMAIN AGITATED ENOUGH
TO MAINTAIN THE VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL STILL BE
OPPORTUNITY FOR CIGS OR VIS TO DROP RAPIDLY DURG THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG OOZING INLAND FROM THE LAKEFRONT.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVEN AT THIS SHORT DURATION...WILL
MAINTAIN THE TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR CONDITIONS BUT DELAY THE POSSIBLE
ONSET.
THE PCPN FORECAST HAS EVEN GREATER UNCERTAINTY. THE ENVIRONMENT
OVER NRN IL/IN REMAINS VERY MOIST AND SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST
WEAKLY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. A MODERATE SHORTWAVE
ALOFT HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO CROSS THE
REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK COLD
FRONT. FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE LOW AS THERE WILL BE ONLY A MINOR
AIRMASS CHANGE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A WINDSHIFT FROM LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO LIGHT NWLY WINDS. THERE MAY BE A FEW GUSTS TO
ARND 15KT IN THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10KT BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE TRIED TO
NARROW DOWN THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR TSRA TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS AND ADJUSTED THE PROB30 GROUP TO 19-22Z AT RFD AND
20-23Z AT THE CHICAGO METRO TERMINALS. THIS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND THE WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD THEN BE DRY WITH NWLY
WINDS ARND 10KT AND VFR CIGS/VIS.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW IN IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VIS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN SOME SCT OVERNIGHT...THOUGH IMPACT WILL BE
MINIMAL.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WIND TRENDS.
* LOW TO MEDIUM IN TSRA TIMING AND COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR. NORTHEAST
WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE FOR TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR. EASTERLY WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE FOR TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLY
BECOMING EAST.
SATURDAY...CHANCE TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
315 AM CDT
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. THE RESULTANT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE STILL VERY COLD
LAKE WATERS HAS KEPT DENSE FOG IN PLACE. THE DENSE FOG WILL
CONTINUE WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY ERODED BY A TROUGH OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MONDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY NIGHT TURNING WINDS FROM LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
SCOUR OUT THE FOG FROM THE LAKE. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP
DOWN THE LAKE TUESDAY TURNING WINDS NORTHERLY BRINGING AN END TO
ANY RESIDUAL FOG AS DRIER AIR FILTERS OVER THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY KEEPING
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE RELATIVELY QUIET...BUT BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE LAKE AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-
LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-
LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
308 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
305 AM CDT
A HANDFUL OF FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS FINAL FULL WEEK OF
JUNE...ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR TO BE A MORE QUIET WEEK THAN
LAST...WITH LESS WIDESPREAD STORM/HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES. ITEMS OF
CONCERN THIS MORNING INCLUDE RAIN AND THUNDER COVERAGE TODAY AS
WELL AS FOG POSSIBILITIES NEAR THE LAKE SHORE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING IT IS A MESSY MID-LEVEL PATTERN WITH
MULTIPLE SMALL SCALE IMPULSES FROM KS TO WI SEEN ON A LONG LOOP OF
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR CHANNEL. OVERALL THOUGH THESE FEATURES COMPOSE
AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL INCH EASTWARD LIKELY CLEARING
THE AREA BY OR DURING OVERNIGHT. QG FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS TROUGH...WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OBSERVED
OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES...SHOULD SUPPORT MODEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED/EMBEDDED THUNDER
WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED AHEAD OF ANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
IMPULSES...WITH 500-1200 J/KG OF MUCAPE TO WORK WITH THROUGH THE
MORNING PER CURRENT AMDAR DATA AND RAP FORECASTS THROUGH MIDDAY.
DID OUR BEST TO ADD TEMPORAL RESOLUTION IN THE FORECAST OF HIGHER
POPS TODAY...WITH THE GREATER LIKELIHOOD SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST DURING
THE DAY. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME POSSIBLY DEEPER
CONVECTION NEAR MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING MORE ROOTED IN THE
MIXED LAYER GIVEN SURFACE HEATING. WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
/AOB 25 KT/ AND ANY MODEST DCAPE BEING CONDITIONAL ON SOME
SUNSHINE WHICH THERE MAY NOT BE TOO MUCH OF...THINK SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL IS SMALL AND THAT CHANCE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.
OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE INDICATING THE LEAST
DENSE THE FOG HAS BEEN NEAR THE LAKE SHORE IN SEVERAL MORNINGS.
THUS ITS POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY MAY BE CANCELLED NEAR SUNRISE
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS LOOK. A LIGHT FLOW PATTERN TODAY MAY FAVOR
A LAKE BREEZE...THOUGH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS COULD DISRUPT
THE WIND FIELD AND LAKE FOG. IN ADDITION...LATE DAY VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM SUNDAY INDICATED THE FOG OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
MI HAD BECOME MORE THIN...SO NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A BIG DEAL
MUCH OF TODAY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE. DEPENDING ON EXACT FRONTAL
TIMING...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY SPREAD BRIEFLY INLAND AGAIN THIS
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA OVERNIGHT BEHIND
FROPA WITH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW SHIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A LITTLE MORE OF A NORTHWEST PUSH ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING BEHIND A SECONDARY COOL FRONT. ALONG THIS FEATURE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AS A JET STREAK
AND ASSOCIATED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MOVE OVER THE BOUNDARY DURING
PEAK HEATING. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP ONLY IN THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES.
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE
TO KEY IN ON FOR SHOWER OR STORM CHANCES. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
POSSIBLY A SHORT WAVE DEPENDING ON WHICH LONG RANGE MODEL ONE
LOOKS AT INDICATE SOME STORM POTENTIAL LATER THURSDAY...BUT
OVERALL NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THIS AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO COOL SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH MORE SO
NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
LOOKS TO HAVE SHORELINE HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
ENERGY FROM A PERSIST GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND WESTERN CANADA DURING THIS PERIOD AND IN
RESPONSE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGIONS. THE EC HAS TRENDED DOWN FROM THE HEIGHTS AND 850MB
TEMPS IT HAD 24 HOURS AGO...BUT STILL SUPPORTIVE OF AROUND 90
DEGREES FOR WEEKEND HIGHS IF NOT IMPACTED BY ANY CONVECTION...WHICH
THERE LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR AT THIS POINT.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR CIGS AND/OR VSBY IN BR/FG/STRATUS
OVERNIGHT.
* SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AND THEN THE TIMING OF TSRA MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE LOWEST CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO HUG THE COAST VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL...OTHER
THAN GYY WHICH IS ONLY AT 3SM BR. THERE IS STILL CONCERN THAT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH AN AREA OF SHRA
MOVING TOWARD NERN IL THE LOWER LEVELS MAY REMAIN AGITATED ENOUGH
TO MAINTAIN THE VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL STILL BE
OPPORTUNITY FOR CIGS OR VIS TO DROP RAPIDLY DURG THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG OOZING INLAND FROM THE LAKEFRONT.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS EVEN AT THIS SHORT DURATION...WILL
MAINTAIN THE TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR CONDITIONS BUT DELAY THE POSSIBLE
ONSET.
THE PCPN FORECAST HAS EVEN GREATER UNCERTAINTY. THE ENVIRONMENT
OVER NRN IL/IN REMAINS VERY MOIST AND SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST
WEAKLY UNSTABLE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. A MODERATE SHORTWAVE
ALOFT HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO CROSS THE
REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK COLD
FRONT. FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE LOW AS THERE WILL BE ONLY A MINOR
AIRMASS CHANGE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A WINDSHIFT FROM LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO LIGHT NWLY WINDS. THERE MAY BE A FEW GUSTS TO
ARND 15KT IN THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10KT BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE TRIED TO
NARROW DOWN THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR TSRA TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS AND ADJUSTED THE PROB30 GROUP TO 19-22Z AT RFD AND
20-23Z AT THE CHICAGO METRO TERMINALS. THIS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND THE WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD THEN BE DRY WITH NWLY
WINDS ARND 10KT AND VFR CIGS/VIS.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* LOW IN IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VIS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN SOME SCT OVERNIGHT...THOUGH IMPACT WILL BE
MINIMAL.
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WIND TRENDS.
* LOW TO MEDIUM IN TSRA TIMING AND COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR. NORTHEAST
WINDS.
THURSDAY...CHANCE FOR TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR. EASTERLY WINDS.
FRIDAY...CHANCE FOR TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR. SOUTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLY
BECOMING EAST.
SATURDAY...CHANCE TSRA. OTHERWISE VFR.
RC
&&
.MARINE...
303 PM CDT
A MESO HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN INDUCED BY THE
COOL WATERS OF THE LAKE ITSELF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS EVENING
ALONG WITH AN ABUNDANTLY MOIST AIRMASS AND THE ACCOMPANYING AREAS OF
DENSE FOG. THIS FLAT PRESSURE PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MOVES EAST TO TO NORTHEAST IOWA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. WINDS
WILL TURN MORE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTH.
THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN TO THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MONDAY NIGHT... TURNING WINDS
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL FINALLY SWEEP THE DENSE FOG OUT OF THE MARINE
AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOUTH FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN
FRIDAY AS THIS HIGH MOVES EAST.
ED F
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ014 UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-
LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-
LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
636 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2014
...Updated for the aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
Main focus is on this afternoon and tonight. Problematic forecast because
the short term convective allowing mesoscale models aren`t handling
the current situation that well. The most recent RAP is starting to
get a clue and looks reasonable. Convection is firing off an old outflow
boundary and a minor upper level pressure perturbation. Convection is
building southward with southerly winds feeding into it, so think storms
will continue to increase in coverage with this associated warm air
advection and eventually forward propagate. Large Hail Parameter (LHP)
is lower now with a value of 4. Think this is due to fairly less steep
mid level lapse rates and more marginal upper level wind shear. Anyhoo,
moderate instability and lower end shear will still support the notion
of severe weather across the forecast area. The most significant threat
is heavy rainfall with pwats up 116% above normal per blended satellite
derived products. Ramped up pops and qpf, although my pops could be
raised even higher, but did not want to be too out of coordination with
neighbors. Will monitor and tweak pops and wx as needed in the ESTF
period. Lows tonight will be in the 60s. Highs in the 80sF tomorrow
with more MCS activity likely.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
For Wednesday night, a lee trough will be nearly stationary with
moist upslope flow. The upper level winds are very weak, but with
good instability some thunderstorms will be likely mainly north of
and east of Dodge City. Have upped thunderstorms chances to around
60 percent in the I-70 area and 30 to 40 percent elsewhere. The
chances for widespread severe weather looks only marginal at this
time with weak upper level support. Overnight lows will be mild and
in the mid to upper 60s.
For Thursday, a lee trough continues with moist upslope flow and
again the upper winds look weak to support any severe weather. Some
thunderstorms will be lingering across mainly parts of south central
Kansas. Highs will range from the low to mid 90s west towards the
Colorado border, to the upper 80s east across parts of south central
Kansas.
For the period of Friday into next Tuesday, a strong upper level
shortwave trough will be moving east into the Intermountain
West and Colorado Rockies on Friday afternoon. This system then
lifts northeast into the Northern Plains for the Weekend. The best
chances for thunderstorms looks to be along the I-70 corridor on
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The main storm track then looks
to remain north of Kansas into Tuesday. Overnight lows will be mild
in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with highs warming from around 90 on
Friday to the mid 90s on Sunday and Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
Flight conditions will start out MVFR at DDC and GCK, with cigs in
the bkn050 range and vsbys in the 4sm TSRA range. These
thunderstorms will speed off to the south, and skies will become
sct at 100-120 feet. Winds tonight will become light and variable,
and will be south at 10g20kts on Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 87 67 89 / 90 30 40 20
GCK 64 89 67 90 / 80 20 40 20
EHA 61 89 66 93 / 50 20 30 10
LBL 63 89 68 92 / 50 20 30 20
HYS 64 87 67 88 / 50 30 60 30
P28 67 87 68 89 / 80 40 50 40
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
613 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
Old upper wave/MCV and convective outflow from overnight storms
dominating local and nearby conditions. Convection becoming rather
widespread in western and southern Kansas with earlier activity in
north central Kansas struggling to maintain itself in weaker
instability and high cloud moving in ahead. Moist easterly flow
remains along much of the Front Range at 20Z with convection
increasing there too. 12Z upper air maps showing warmer 700 and
850MB temps to the south and west.
Precipitation trends throughout the day Wednesday will be
challenging. Overall setup remains one supportive of increasing
chances overnight into the daylight hours with isentropic lift
picking up as the mid and lower levels moisten, however amount of
current activity to the southwest gives some doubt how the
atmosphere will recover and if isentropic lift will be focused
farther south over the reinforced outflow. With confidence in a
more northern focus for convection lowering, have reduced PoPs a
bit, but help aloft in northern areas still looks on track as
shortwave trough in South Dakota pushes southeast into northern
Missouri later tonight into Wednesday. Lack of wind throughout the
storm-bearing layer keeps significant severe concerns in check, but
instability may be enough for a few pulse storms in the peak
heating hours. Forecast soundings similar with the available CAPE
stretched up through the column to combine with somewhat above
normal precipitable water values for heavy rain potential if
convection can train, but there is no strong training indication
at this point. High temperatures Wednesday will be largely
dependent on how long precip and cloud can be sustained, but
expect enough later day clearing for highs mainly in the middle
80s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
Forecast confidence for timing of precipitation in the extended is
low. For Wednesday night into Thursday, both EC and GFS bring a wave
into the eastern portion of the state but still have timing
differences, with EC focusing more on a nocturnal MCS while GFS
brings stronger wave out of the Rockies in the afternoon hours. GFS
appears to get into feedback issues toward Friday morning with over
3 inches across portions of the forecast area while EC remains dry.
By Friday afternoon warmer temperatures at 700MB start to increase
as the flow aloft becomes more southwesterly. Have backed off a bit
on rain chances Friday and would also make for warmer temperatures.
Larger scale pattern into Saturday continues to carry some
variability in guidance as broad longwave trof moves slowly across
the US Canadian border along the Rockies. Convection developing
northward into the northern plains as this wave advances will bring
boundaries near or into the forecast area early Saturday. Think
better chances for stronger storms remain focused to the north, but
enough cape remains as shear makes an increase that storms could be
strong should the develop into our area on Saturday. Brought chances
mainly along and north of I70 for Saturday. Remnant outflows from
that convection may then become focus in weaker flow aloft for
Saturday night into Sunday as LLJ makes its nightly
strengthen/veering run. Again appears better chances remain north
but cannot take out chances for our area with interactions so close
to our northern border. As the upper trof migrates across the
Northern US, the pattern remains similarly uncertain, with GFS
pushing the front southward of our forecast area through Tuesday
while the EC stalls it to the north. No one day appears to be a
washout but cannot rule out chances each day. Have gone toward a
warmer / more northerly solution for precipitation, but again
forecast certainty is rather low. With PW values 1.5 to 2 inches
throughout most of the extended forecast, with steering flow weak at
several times, locally heavy rainfall could be of concern.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
Difficult forecast this evening in figuring out when and where TS
will be. It`s hard to see any kind of obvious MCV immediately
upstream of the terminals on water vapor or within profiler data,
so think convection across north central KS may be driven more by
daytime heating. Eventually the RAP wants to bring another MCV
across northeast KS Wednesday morning and the NAM, while not as
definitive with the MCV, also supports this idea. So the thinking
is the current convection northwest of MHK may die down after
sunset. Then there could be new development during the early
morning Wednesday if convection off the foothills develops an MCV
to track across the area. Confidence is marginal at best so have
maintained a VFR forecast with only VCTS at this point. Will have
to watch trends and amend forecast if/when TS become more obvious.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
346 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2014
...Updated for Long Term...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
Another MCS night likely across far western Kansas. There is isolated
weak thunderstorms developing across south central Kansas this afternoon
as well. Have the highest pops along and west of Garden City to Liberal,
although the most recent HRRR propagates the MCS farther east. Something
to watch and update ESTF grids based on reality rather than model output
solutions. There could be some severe weather across far western Kansas
as meso analyzed SBCAPES are near 2000 J/kg and 30 kt effective bulk
shear. Most probable threat is hail and winds along with heavy rainfall
as pwats remain just below the 75th percentile for a normal distribution.
Overnight minimums will be in the 60sF.
Another MCS likely tomorrow. Attempted to add some diurnal pop variability
with a minimum towards 18Z and maximum at the end of my period. Some
uncertainty in storm placement as convective allowing models are different
than the global models. Broad bushed pops at this point as pwats remain
high and the overall synoptic pattern is that which is conducive for
MCS`s. There could be some marginal severe weather again as instability is
moderate and bulk shear is more marginal. Highs in the 80sF.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
For Tuesday night, a weak upper level shortwave trough will be
moving across western Kansas with numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected as an MCS. At this time with weak wind shear and
instability the chances for severe do not look that promising. Have
upped precip chances. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s.
On Wednesday, more widely scattered thunderstorms are possible with
moderate instability mainly by late afternoon. The upper level winds
again look weak with severe thunderstorms not a good bet. Highs will
be in the mid to upper 80s.
For the period Thursday into next Monday, the best chance for more
scattered thunderstorms looks to be on Thursday with another weak
upper level wave. A stronger wave moves from the Pacific Northwest
and into the Northern Plains by the Weekend with the best chance for
thunderstorms mainly far north across I-70. Lows will be mild in the
upper 60s to lower 70s, with highs warming slowly from the upper 80s
into the low to mid 90s by the Weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
VFR mainly expected. Some local MVFR here in KDDC, but this won`t last
long. CB`s likely to impact KGCK this evening with fairly strong outflow
winds as main aviation impact.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 85 65 87 / 20 40 50 30
GCK 62 85 64 87 / 50 40 50 20
EHA 62 84 64 89 / 50 40 50 30
LBL 63 87 64 88 / 50 40 50 30
HYS 63 82 64 85 / 20 20 40 30
P28 65 86 68 86 / 10 30 40 40
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
300 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2014
...Update to short term...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
Another MCS night likely across far western Kansas. There is isolated
weak thunderstorms developing across south central Kansas this afternoon
as well. Have the highest pops along and west of Garden City to Liberal,
although the most recent HRRR propagates the MCS farther east. Something
to watch and update ESTF grids based on reality rather than model output
solutions. There could be some severe weather across far western Kansas
as meso analyzed SBCAPES are near 2000 J/kg and 30 kt effective bulk
shear. Most probable threat is hail and winds along with heavy rainfall
as pwats remain just below the 75th percentile for a normal distribution.
Overnight minimums will be in the 60sF.
Another MCS likely tomorrow. Attempted to add some diurnal pop variability
with a minimum towards 18Z and maximum at the end of my period. Some
uncertainty in storm placement as convective allowing models are different
than the global models. Broad bushed pops at this point as pwats remain
high and the overall synoptic pattern is that which is conducive for
MCS`s. There could be some marginal severe weather again as instability is
moderate and bulk shear is more marginal. Highs in the 80sF.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
The overall wet pattern, with nightly mesoscale convective systems
(MCS), will continue through Wednesday Night. This pattern will not
break until we see more pronounced ridging develop over the
Rockies...which is expected by Thursday with height rises ahead of a
West Coast trough/Pacific jet. Lower-mid tropospheric temperatures
will warm substantially as a result. This will force the overall
convective activity into the Northern High Plains as a general rule
Thursday and Friday...and probably into Saturday as well. There is
still quite a bit of difference between the ECMWF and the GFS
regarding the strength and evolution of the polar jet as it
penetrates the central CONUS. The ECMWF is a bit further south with
the jet core, which would keep western Kansas in play for severe
thunderstorm risk, whereas the GFS would keep western Kansas dry
amidst warm mid level temperatures with the jet core centered across
the Dakotas. Surface temperatures will slowly increase through the
period, too, with lower 90s back in the forecast by late week and
next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
VFR mainly expected. Some local MVFR here in KDDC, but this won`t last
long. CB`s likely to impact KGCK this evening with fairly strong outflow
winds as main aviation impact.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 85 65 87 / 20 40 40 30
GCK 62 85 65 87 / 50 40 50 20
EHA 62 84 64 90 / 50 40 50 20
LBL 63 87 65 89 / 50 40 50 20
HYS 63 82 66 87 / 20 20 30 30
P28 65 86 68 88 / 10 30 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1136 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO RAMP UP QUICKLY AFTER 3 PM MDT
(4 PM CDT) AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE IGNITES A FEW STORMS IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST A LINE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HRRR HAS
BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL WITH THE LINE AND
WE COULD EXPERIENCE ANOTHER EPISODE OF 70+ MPH GUSTS. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE MID 50S WEST...MID 60S EAST.
ON MONDAY MAY SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO. OTHERWISE EXPECT
SOME CLOUDINESS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
A FEW STORMS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO MONDAY EVENING MAY SNEAK INTO
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS LLJ STRENGTHENS AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. STORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...WITH
PARCELS ORIGINATING AROUND 800MB HAVING UP TO 1000 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE AND LITTLE TO NO CIN. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH THESE STORMS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION GETS GOING IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE. MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 30-40KTS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS AS THEY
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CORRIDOR OF VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
FORECAST BY THE AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOWEVER IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER AT AROUND
30KTS...BUT SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS NEXT SHORTWAVE
COMES OUT OF NORTHERN COLORADO IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS IN THE LAST HALF OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE ROCKIES TROUGH OR EVEN THE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO CONTINUE
THE MENTION OF DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK. EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SW NEBRASKA...WITH
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KGLD. BY 09Z THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUTSIDE THE VICINITY OF BOTH TERMINALS. WINDS
ARE GENERALLY GOING TO BE LESS THAT 12KT THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS IN THE 10-15KT RANGE MONDAY
WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A LITTLE TIGHTER DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF SURFACE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TIMING AND COVERAGE AT THIS POINT...SO I LEFT MENTION OF
OF THE TAFS DURING THIS UPDATE AFTER THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ENDS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
1009 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA TUESDAY AND WILL STALL
OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE
ON THURSDAY AND SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ALONG IT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...SOME MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. PRES GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WINDS HAVE ALREADY TURNED SELY ALONG THE
COAST ATTM. SHOULDN/T SEE TOO MUCH WARMING FOR THOSE AREAS FROM
THIS POINT FORWARD TODAY. WARMING OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN IS
SUPPORTING CU DEVELOPMENT ATTM...WITH AN ISOLD SHRA NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SPC WRF HAS SOME SHRA ACTIVITY...BUT
LATEST HRRR NOT AS BULLISH ON CONVECTIVE PRECIP. WILL KEEP POP
BELOW CHC ATTM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WAS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WIND WAS CALM AREA
WIDE. EVEN MOUNT WASHINGTON WAS REPORTING A WIND SPEED OF ONLY 1
MPH. 00Z GYX SOUNDING SHOWED DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE AND A MIXED
LAYER EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO 700 MB. ABOVE 700 MB A COUPLE OF
SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS WERE NOTED. IT WAS THIS STABLE LAYER THAT
SERVED TO CAP THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE LOWER LEVELS AND TEND TO SQUASH
THE HIGH BASED AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS BEFORE ANY SUBSTANTIAL
SHOWERS COULD FORM.
TODAY... EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE... SETTING UP A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW / SEA BREEZE ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY... CONSIDERING THE WELL MIXED LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE
AND SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BENEATH RIDGING ALOFT. THIS
TRANSLATES TO UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXCEPT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING SOME SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION. ESTIMATES FROM THE 00Z GYX SOUNDING ARE THAT IT WOULD
TAKE A SURFACE DEW POINT IN THE MID 50S TO OVERCOME THE CAP ABOVE
THE 700 MB LEVEL. DO NOT EXPECT DEW POINTS TO REACH THAT LEVEL
TODAY AS RETURN FLOW IS NOT THAT STRONG... DEW POINTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ARE ONLY IN THE LOW 50S... AND DEEP MIXING TO
700 MB WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO CONCENTRATE THIS MOISTURE
RETURN IN THE LOW LEVELS ENOUGH TO GENERATE INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER... IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HEATING IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY LEAD
TO A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING THERE... WHERE IT WILL TAKE LESS
SURFACE HEATING TO OVERCOME THE CAP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT... WITH BETTER MOISTURE RETURN
DEVELOPING ABOVE THE SURFACE INVERSION. COULD SEE SOME FOG IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES COOL MORE EFFICIENTLY BEFORE
THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR MOVES IN LATER IN THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS
ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S DEW TO THE GREATER MOISTURE.
ON TUESDAY... EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT THE SAME AS MONDAY OR
MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. UPPER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
HUDSON BAY WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY WITH A SURFACE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. IN ADDITION... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO CROSS NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME COOLING ALOFT (BETTER
CHANCE OF INSTABILITY) AND LIFT AS THESE FEATURES MOVE TOWARD
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN ADDITION... THE GREATER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE (MID TO UPPER 50S DEW POINTS) WILL ALSO SERVE TO INCREASE
INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN... WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TUESDAY
EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE TOO WEAK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE A THREAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING COLD FRONT SLOWLY SOUTH FROM CANADA
TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS IS GOING CRAZY WITH QPF AT THIS POINT WITH THE
EURO BEING MORE REALISTIC. GFS MAY BE SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. HOWEVER THAT SAID THE AIRMASS WILL BE VERY
MOIST WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
SO THERE IS A CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO SEE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLING
NORTHEAST ALONG IT. COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY EXIT THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AREA WIDE. THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING. THE BEST CHANCE OF FOG WOULD BE AT LEBANON.
LONG TERM...EXPECT IFR/LIFR LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR
NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN THE INTERIOR.
VFR FRIDAY. MAY SEE MVFR BY LATE SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS BRINGS LIGHT WINDS AND
NEARLY CALM SEAS. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST... A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
951 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING AS DEW POINTS SLOWLY RISE
DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS DIFFER A BIT
ON HOW MUCH PCPN ACROSS NC LIFTS N INTO SRN VA BY 12Z. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...KEPT LOW CHC POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF RT 460. WARMER
NIGHT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE U60S-M70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS AGREE ON THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND THE NORTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY...BUT ARE STRUGGLING SOME TO DEPICT THE FEATURES AND
LIFT PATTERNS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH OVER VA AND NC. SO THIS HAS LED
TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
WITH THE TROUGH LIFTING TO THE NORTH...THE BEST FORCING IS ALSO
LIFTING NORTH AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NRN VA/WRN MD INTO PA WED
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH VA/NC DURING
THIS TIME...BUT THE BOUNDARY IS WEAK AND THE LIFT IS NOT FOCUS SO
HAVE HELD MOST POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DID KEEP A LITTLE AREA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO THE FORCING. THE OTHER FEATURE TO WATCH IS THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE SERN US COAST THAT
GETS PULLED NORTHWARD ON WED. THIS COULD KICK OFF SHOWERS ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS FROM ERN NC THROUGH THE DELMARVA. BUT AGAIN THE
FORCING IS NOT STRONG AND THE TIMING IS EARLY IN THE DAY. SO FOR
NOW HAVE JUST GONE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THAT WAVE.
THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY SO HAVE THE
SFC FRONT OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXITING BY THURS AFTERNOON. SO HAVE SPED THE CLEARING OF THE POPS
THUR AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BE DRY EVERYWHERE BASE ON HOW QUICK
THE DRY AIR ARRIVES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
BY THURS EVENING INTO FRIDAY...WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVE AND
SLOWLY SLIDE OFF THE COAST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL TURN THE
SFC FLOW FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BACK TO THE SE BY FRI
AFTERNOON. WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS...COULD
SEE SOME POP UP CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT SO HAVE KEPT SLGT CHC
POPS IN THE SOUTH BUT DID DRY OUT AREAS FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED NEAR THE MOS NUMBERS FOR
THE PERIOD...LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS ON WED WITH
SOME MORNING SUNSHINE...AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER MOISTURE THAT WILL TAKE TIME TO ERODE AFTER THE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. FROM THURS TO FRIDAY...HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD A STRAIGHT
BLEND...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AGREE WITH WPC THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH OVERALL
PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD. THIS LOOKS TO BE A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN FOR THE AREA. A RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ALOFT ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS
NEAR 70.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDELY SCT SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. VFR CONDS
AT ALL TAF SITES WITH MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS REPORTED. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY FROM THE SE-S LESS THAN 10 KT.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT SE
FLOW IN PLACE THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR LOW STRATUS OR FOG EARLY
WED MORNING OVER SE TERMINALS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL
KEEP VFR CONDS WITH SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING LAYERED MOISTURE OVERHEAD
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF
MVFR/PATCHY IFR FOG OR STRATUS WILL BE PSBL EACH MORNING NEAR
SUNRISE.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ALL DEPICT A SOUTHERLY SURGE UP THE BAY. THIS
DOES HAPPEN SOMETIMES WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. LOOKING AT THE MODEL WINDS ONLY THE RUC SHOWS
WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW THE LOCAL
WRF AND KEEP WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 18 KTS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE. ALL MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A FAIRLY WEAK FRONT.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND AND GRADUALLY SHIFT THE WINDS
TO THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL STAY UNDER SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
925 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST TODAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SHWRS MOVG NORTH ACROSS INTERIOR NE NC ERLY THIS EVENING SO
EXTENDED POPS THERE A FEW MORE HRS. DOUBTFUL THEY MAKE IT
MUCH FARTHER N OF THE BORDER.
PVS DSCN:
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
DEW POINTS ARE REFLECTING THAT AS THEY HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES.
THIS COULD LEAD SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT TOWARDS
MORNING AS A WEAK BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO APPROACH THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SO HAVE
SLOWLY RAMPED UP TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE VA/NC BORDER AND
SOUTHWARD TOWARD 12Z. NOT CONFIDENT TO GO HIGHER WITH THE POPS AT
THIS STAGE...BUT ANY SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR.
FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN
TONIGHT WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...HAVE KEPT THE LOWS UP TOWARD THE
MAV NUMBERS...ALLOWING FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE CLEAR
SKY EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE LATER WHICH COULD PUMP
READINGS UP TOWARD MORNING. THE MET NUMBERS LOOK A LITTLE TOO HIGH
GIVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME COOLING EARLY IN THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS AGREE ON THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND THE NORTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY...BUT ARE STRUGGLING SOME TO DEPICT THE FEATURES AND
LIFT PATTERNS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH OVER VA AND NC. SO THIS HAS LED
TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
WITH THE TROUGH LIFTING TO THE NORTH...THE BEST FORCING IS ALSO
LIFTING NORTH AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NRN VA/WRN MD INTO PA WED
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH VA/NC DURING
THIS TIME...BUT THE BOUNDARY IS WEAK AND THE LIFT IS NOT FOCUS SO
HAVE HELD MOST POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DID KEEP A LITTLE AREA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO THE FORCING. THE OTHER FEATURE TO WATCH IS THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE SERN US COAST THAT
GETS PULLED NORTHWARD ON WED. THIS COULD KICK OFF SHOWERS ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS FROM ERN NC THROUGH THE DELMARVA. BUT AGAIN THE
FORCING IS NOT STRONG AND THE TIMING IS EARLY IN THE DAY. SO FOR
NOW HAVE JUST GONE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THAT WAVE.
THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY SO HAVE THE
SFC FRONT OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXITING BY THURS AFTERNOON. SO HAVE SPED THE CLEARING OF THE POPS
THUR AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BE DRY EVERYWHERE BASE ON HOW QUICK
THE DRY AIR ARRIVES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
BY THURS EVENING INTO FRIDAY...WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVE AND
SLOWLY SLIDE OFF THE COAST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL TURN THE
SFC FLOW FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BACK TO THE SE BY FRI
AFTERNOON. WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS...COULD
SEE SOME POP UP CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT SO HAVE KEPT SLGT CHC
POPS IN THE SOUTH BUT DID DRY OUT AREAS FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED NEAR THE MOS NUMBERS FOR
THE PERIOD...LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS ON WED WITH
SOME MORNING SUNSHINE...AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER MOISTURE THAT WILL TAKE TIME TO ERODE AFTER THE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. FROM THURS TO FRIDAY...HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD A STRAIGHT
BLEND...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AGREE WITH WPC THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH OVERALL
PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD. THIS LOOKS TO BE A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN FOR THE AREA. A RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ALOFT ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS
NEAR 70.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDELY SCT SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. VFR CONDS
AT ALL TAF SITES WITH MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS REPORTED. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY FROM THE SE-S LESS THAN 10 KT.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT SE
FLOW IN PLACE THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR LOW STRATUS OR FOG EARLY
WED MORNING OVER SE TERMINALS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL
KEEP VFR CONDS WITH SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING LAYERED MOISTURE OVERHEAD
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF
MVFR/PATCHY IFR FOG OR STRATUS WILL BE PSBL EACH MORNING NEAR
SUNRISE.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ALL DEPICT A SOUTHERLY SURGE UP THE BAY. THIS
DOES HAPPEN SOMETIMES WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. LOOKING AT THE MODEL WINDS ONLY THE RUC SHOWS
WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW THE LOCAL
WRF AND KEEP WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 18 KTS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE. ALL MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A FAIRLY WEAK FRONT.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND AND GRADUALLY SHIFT THE WINDS
TO THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL STAY UNDER SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS/MPR
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
627 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND MORE HUMID TODAY WITH AN
ISOLATED STORM. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN OHIO. IN ADDITION...MANY
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE SOME FOG. ANY LOCATION COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. A FEATURE NOT PREVIOUSLY SHOWN ON MODEL RUNS IS A
SHORTWAVE THAT COULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TRACK OVER NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE NAM
MOST CLEARLY DEPICTS THIS SHORTWAVE...THE END OF THE RAP MODEL RUN
HINTS AT THIS DEVELOPMENT...AND VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION NMM RUNS
ALSO DEVELOP THIS PRECIPITATION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE
RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...DECREASING POPS
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOUT FIVE DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UNFORTUNATELY...THE 00Z GFS SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK...SPINNING UP A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND SHOWING UNREALISTIC PRECIPITATION AND VORTICITY MAXIMA. AS
A RESULT...THE 00Z GFS WAS NOT USED THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
PRIMARY CHANGE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO SLOW DOWN
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. COMPARED TO MODEL RUNS FROM 24 HOURS
AGO...FRONT APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND
PASSAGE WITH LATEST MODEL RUNS. THIS MEANS MANY LOCATIONS COULD
REMAIN DRY TUESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED
EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG SHEAR VALUES REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS FARTHER TO THE NORTH..BUT SOME STRONGER STORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY. BIGGER CONCERN COULD POSSIBLY BE
HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 INCHES ACROSS WV/MD RIDGES TO NEARLY 2
INCHES IN EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THESE PWAT
VALUES ARE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR JUNE...AND IF SHOWERS/STORM
TRAIN ALONG THE FRONT...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY DRY WEEKEND THAT
JUST OCCURRED SHOULD HELP TO ALLEVIATE CONCERNS.
MOST RAINFALL SHOULD FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH
SHOULD ACTUALLY PASS OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOULD HANG ON FOR A WHILE INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD RIDGES...BUT THINK THAT PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DROP QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NEARLY ALL
LOCATIONS DRY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF WARM NIGHTS CAN BE
EXPECTED DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEEPING THURSDAY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND RELATIVELY
LOW MOISTURE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...BRINGING HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BACK NORTHWARD. FROM HERE ON OUT...EXPECTING A DAILY CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS H500 HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AND WE STAY
IN A TYPICALLY WARM AND MOIST SUMMERTIME AIRMASS. DECIDED TO KEY
ON DIURNAL POPS FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH RIPPLES IN THE WESTERLIES
MAY PROVIDE ENHANCED CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL FLOAT TO A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS WITH TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TODAY. THE MAJORITY
OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE QUIET...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS THE CAP ALOFT
ERODES AND ALLOWS FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
422 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND MORE HUMID TODAY WITH AN
ISOLATED STORM. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN OHIO. IN ADDITION...MANY
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE SOME FOG. ANY LOCATION COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. A FEATURE NOT PREVIOUSLY SHOWN ON MODEL RUNS IS A
SHORTWAVE THAT COULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TRACK OVER NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE NAM
MOST CLEARLY DEPICTS THIS SHORTWAVE...THE END OF THE RAP MODEL RUN
HINTS AT THIS DEVELOPMENT...AND VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION NMM RUNS
ALSO DEVELOP THIS PRECIPITATION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE
RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...DECREASING POPS
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOUT FIVE DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UNFORTUNATELY...THE 00Z GFS SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK...SPINNING UP A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND SHOWING UNREALISTIC PRECIPITATION AND VORTICITY MAXIMA. AS
A RESULT...THE 00Z GFS WAS NOT USED THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
PRIMARY CHANGE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO SLOW DOWN
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. COMPARED TO MODEL RUNS FROM 24 HOURS
AGO...FRONT APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND
PASSAGE WITH LATEST MODEL RUNS. THIS MEANS MANY LOCATIONS COULD
REMAIN DRY TUESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED
EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG SHEAR VALUES REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS FARTHER TO THE NORTH..BUT SOME STRONGER STORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY. BIGGER CONCERN COULD POSSIBLY BE
HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 INCHES ACROSS WV/MD RIDGES TO NEARLY 2
INCHES IN EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THESE PWAT
VALUES ARE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR JUNE...AND IF SHOWERS/STORM
TRAIN ALONG THE FRONT...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY DRY WEEKEND THAT
JUST OCCURRED SHOULD HELP TO ALLEVIATE CONCERNS.
MOST RAINFALL SHOULD FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH
SHOULD ACTUALLY PASS OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOULD HANG ON FOR A WHILE INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD RIDGES...BUT THINK THAT PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DROP QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NEARLY ALL
LOCATIONS DRY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF WARM NIGHTS CAN BE
EXPECTED DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEEPING THURSDAY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND RELATIVELY
LOW MOISTURE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...BRINGING HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BACK NORTHWARD. FROM HERE ON OUT...EXPECTING A DAILY CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS H500 HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE AND WE STAY
IN A TYPICALLY WARM AND MOIST SUMMERTIME AIRMASS. DECIDED TO KEY
ON DIURNAL POPS FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH RIPPLES IN THE WESTERLIES
MAY PROVIDE ENHANCED CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL FLOAT TO A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS WITH TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY MVFR FOG WITH ONLY KMGW
EXPECTED TO REACH IFR. FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY OVER THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE QUIET...BUT BY
LATE AFTERNOON/ EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AS THE CAP ALOFT ERODES AND ALLOWS FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
346 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AND MORE HUMID TODAY WITH AN
ISOLATED STORM. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN OHIO. IN ADDITION...MANY
LOCATIONS WILL HAVE SOME FOG. ANY LOCATION COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. A FEATURE NOT PREVIOUSLY SHOWN ON MODEL RUNS IS A
SHORTWAVE THAT COULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TRACK OVER NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE NAM
MOST CLEARLY DEPICTS THIS SHORTWAVE...THE END OF THE RAP MODEL RUN
HINTS AT THIS DEVELOPMENT...AND VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION NMM RUNS
ALSO DEVELOP THIS PRECIPITATION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE
RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...DECREASING POPS
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...TEMPS WILL BE
ABOUT FIVE DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UNFORTUNATELY...THE 00Z GFS SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK...SPINNING UP A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND SHOWING UNREALISTIC PRECIPITATION AND VORTICITY MAXIMA. AS
A RESULT...THE 00Z GFS WAS NOT USED THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
PRIMARY CHANGE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO SLOW DOWN
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. COMPARED TO MODEL RUNS FROM 24 HOURS
AGO...FRONT APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER IN ITS ARRIVAL AND
PASSAGE WITH LATEST MODEL RUNS. THIS MEANS MANY LOCATIONS COULD
REMAIN DRY TUESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED
EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG SHEAR VALUES REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS FARTHER TO THE NORTH..BUT SOME STRONGER STORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY. BIGGER CONCERN COULD POSSIBLY BE
HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 INCHES ACROSS WV/MD RIDGES TO NEARLY 2
INCHES IN EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THESE PWAT
VALUES ARE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR JUNE...AND IF SHOWERS/STORM
TRAIN ALONG THE FRONT...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVELY DRY WEEKEND THAT
JUST OCCURRED SHOULD HELP TO ALLEVIATE CONCERNS.
MOST RAINFALL SHOULD FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH
SHOULD ACTUALLY PASS OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOULD HANG ON FOR A WHILE INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WV/MD RIDGES...BUT THINK THAT PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DROP QUITE A BIT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NEARLY ALL
LOCATIONS DRY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF WARM NIGHTS CAN BE
EXPECTED DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ON
FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY...INCREASING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB BACK UP IN
THE THE MID 60S AND AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL CARRY INTO SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITS OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY MVFR FOG WITH ONLY KMGW
EXPECTED TO REACH IFR. FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY OVER THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE QUIET...BUT BY
LATE AFTERNOON/ EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AS THE CAP ALOFT ERODES AND ALLOWS FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.
.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
349 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AT 19Z THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED ROUGHLY ALONG THE MICHIGAN
STATE BORDER PER REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS. NORTH OF THE FRONT, SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MORNING`S MCV CONTINUE EXITING EAST. THIS LIGHT
PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO
THE LOW/MID 70S THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT,
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY A
WEAK/UNIDIRECTIONAL AMBIENT WIND FIELD. WITHIN SAID WARM SECTOR,
WIDESPREAD MULTICELL CONVECTION IS ONGOING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE
REPORTS THUS FAR. HOWEVER, SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY SOUTH
OF THE WARM FRONT, MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF I-94, WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CONTRIBUTE TO A WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE
LOWEST 5KFT PER THE LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS, IN THE
PRESENCE OF LOCALLY ENHANCED SHEAR INVOF THE WARM FRONT, WILL
PRESENT A LOW-END CHANCE FOR BRIEF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A MARGINAL DIABATICALLY-INDUCED SEVERE WIND THREAT UNTIL
DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST LATER THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE AREA
BECOMES INCREASINGLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR. ONE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTH BEND TO TERRE
HAUTE ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS.
IN ADDITION, MORE UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN JUST SOUTH OF
CHICAGO IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN MCV EVIDENT IN AFTERNOON VISIBLE
IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT, WITH THE
LAST ROUND LIKELY AFFECTING THE METRO AREA SOMETIME AROUND 02-03Z.
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH LATE EVENING/EARLY NIGHT ACTIVITY WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO POTENTIAL TRAINING AND PWATS OF 1.6" TO 1.8" ALONG
WITH LIGHTNING. SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME AS THE
SUN ANGLE DECREASES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT RESPONDS TO AN ENCROACHING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. THE
AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP ACTIVITY
BUBBLING WITHIN THE MOISTURE AXIS THROUGH THE NOCTURNAL PERIOD. LOWS
IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW 70 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
GENERALLY ILL-DEFINED FORCING IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT /PW 1.5-2
INCHES/ POSES CHALLENGES FOR DETERMINING POPS TUESDAY...BUT TRIED TO
KEY IN ON SOME FEATURES WITH THIS PACKAGE. WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR CENTRAL LAKE HURON AT 12Z TUESDAY AND MOVING
NORTHEAST...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW...BISECTING
LOWER MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR OVER OKLAHOMA WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD...REACHING IN/OH BY
00Z WEDNESDAY. WEAK AREA OF MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION NORTH OF THIS WAVE
MAY PROVIDE SOME LIFT OVER SE MI...ALONG WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
FORCING FROM 70KT JET OVER NORTHERN LOWER. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS
FORCING BY UPGRADING THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA TO ENTRY-LEVEL
LIKELY POPS FROM 15-21Z. ALSO LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES OVER
THE SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. SEVERE
POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK TOO OVERWHELMING...ESPECIALLY IF MORNING
ACTIVITY HAMPERS DESTABILIZATION. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
TOTALLY IMPRESSIVE AT 6-6.5 K/KM. IF PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATER
AND SOME MORE RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KT COULD RESULT IN SOME BETTER ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THAT SCENARIO. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY IN
ANY MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE EAST/WEST
ORIENTED COLD FRONT SHOULD SPELL AN END TO MOST POPS AFTER
00Z...THOUGH IT IS NOT A VERY AGRESSIVE FRONTAL PUSH...SO LOW TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S.
LOWER THETA-E AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE OVER ONTARIO ATTEMPTS TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO LOWER MI.
THIS WILL BE COMPLICATED BY THE PASSAGE OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
DURING THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECIDED LACK OF MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE HOWEVER...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. GFS IS SHOWING MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION AROUND 900MB FOR MOST OF THE DAY...SO
HAVE KEPT A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY IN THE MID-70S TO NEAR 80.
THE HIGH WILL HAVE MORE SUCCESS BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN...SO EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW
DRY CONDITIONS TO STICK AROUND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BEFORE RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK FOR THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AS A PAIR OF FRONTS WORK THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST
FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG A LINE FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE
ERIE...SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL VEER WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY
TO WESTERLY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL USHER
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15
KNOTS...WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP THE WAVES IN CHECK.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1253 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
//DISCUSSION...
LOW VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTORMS WILL PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE TAPERING EXITING TO THE EAST. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING, WITH
THE NEXT ORGANIZED BATCH OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
BETWEEN 01Z-05Z. LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE FOR TONIGHT SO ELECTED
TO REDUCE PREVAILING -SHRA TO A PROB30 GROUP.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSTORMS AFFECTING KDTW
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DRK/RK
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
112 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WSW FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES
BETWEEN A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM MANITOBA INTO THE NRN PLAINS
AND A RIDGE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO QUEBEC. AT THE SFC...A WEAK
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NE MN INTO WRN WI. A MORE PROMINENT COLD FRONT
STRETCHED FROM JAMES BAY TO NEAR WINNIPEG AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER N CNTRL CANADA. FORCING FROM A WEAK SHRTWV IN NRN WI ALONG WITH
AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES TO 1.4 INCHES...WAS
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER FROM SW UPPER MI INTO E
CNTRL WI.
TODAY...EXPECT THE SHRTWV AND AREA OF PCPN ONLY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE
EAST THIS MORNING. WITH ONLY WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING...THE FCST KEEPS MENTION
OF JUST SCT SHRA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER CNTRL
UPPER MI. WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA AS MLCAPE VALUES CLIMB INTO THE
400-800 J/KG RANGE.
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE PCPN COVERAGE
SHOULD DIMINISH. HOWEVER...INCREASED QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSRA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
ON TUESDAY MORNING...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE
COLD FRONT MOVING OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE
850MB TROUGH AXIS HANGS UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS THERE IS LACK OF A
SOUTHWARD PUSH DUE TO THE GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING BROAD SYNOPTIC SUPPORT
MOVING THRU AS THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. AS SUCH...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY DESPITE THE SURFACE FRONT BEING SOUTH OF THE REGION.
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6+
C/KM...ALLOWING FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDER WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE SFC TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S AND IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOCATED. WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE TUE EVENING HOURS AS WELL GIVEN
REMAINING MID LEVEL FORCING AND REMAINING DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
AT THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND COOL WITH THE
850MB TROUGH AND SFC FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA. STILL SOME
WEAK TROUGHINESS AT 500MB AND AS SUCH WEAK MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA ALL DAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY AND VERY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES COMBINED WITH ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR
NOW. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT CHANCES ARE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT TIME TIME.
IN THE EXTENDED...ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAKE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE
BROAD SCALE FEATURES WHICH AT LEAST GIVES SOME BASIC CONFIDENCE ON
WHEN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE. ON THURSDAY...THE ECMWF
AND GFS BOTH SHOW A COMPACT VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY AS THE 850MB FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE VERY LIMITED...WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RETURN TO
NORMAL AS WELL AS DRY WEATHER. RETURN FLOW BEGINS IN EARNEST FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL...AND PERHAPS
A LITTLE MORE HUMIDITY AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GIVEN LOWERING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES. WITH NORTH
WINDS TUE MORNING...A SLOW IMRPOVEMENT TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING TUE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT.
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FEET.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR LSZ162-
240>248-263>265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
753 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WSW FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES
BETWEEN A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM MANITOBA INTO THE NRN PLAINS
AND A RIDGE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO QUEBEC. AT THE SFC...A WEAK
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NE MN INTO WRN WI. A MORE PROMINENT COLD FRONT
STRETCHED FROM JAMES BAY TO NEAR WINNIPEG AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER N CNTRL CANADA. FORCING FROM A WEAK SHRTWV IN NRN WI ALONG WITH
AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES TO 1.4 INCHES...WAS
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER FROM SW UPPER MI INTO E
CNTRL WI.
TODAY...EXPECT THE SHRTWV AND AREA OF PCPN ONLY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE
EAST THIS MORNING. WITH ONLY WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING...THE FCST KEEPS MENTION
OF JUST SCT SHRA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER CNTRL
UPPER MI. WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA AS MLCAPE VALUES CLIMB INTO THE
400-800 J/KG RANGE.
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE PCPN COVERAGE
SHOULD DIMINISH. HOWEVER...INCREASED QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSRA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
ON TUESDAY MORNING...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE
COLD FRONT MOVING OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE
850MB TROUGH AXIS HANGS UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS THERE IS LACK OF A
SOUTHWARD PUSH DUE TO THE GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING BROAD SYNOPTIC SUPPORT
MOVING THRU AS THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. AS SUCH...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY DESPITE THE SURFACE FRONT BEING SOUTH OF THE REGION.
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6+
C/KM...ALLOWING FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDER WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE SFC TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S AND IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOCATED. WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE TUE EVENING HOURS AS WELL GIVEN
REMAINING MID LEVEL FORCING AND REMAINING DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
AT THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND COOL WITH THE
850MB TROUGH AND SFC FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA. STILL SOME
WEAK TROUGHINESS AT 500MB AND AS SUCH WEAK MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA ALL DAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY AND VERY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES COMBINED WITH ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR
NOW. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT CHANCES ARE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT TIME TIME.
IN THE EXTENDED...ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAKE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE
BROAD SCALE FEATURES WHICH AT LEAST GIVES SOME BASIC CONFIDENCE ON
WHEN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE. ON THURSDAY...THE ECMWF
AND GFS BOTH SHOW A COMPACT VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY AS THE 850MB FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE VERY LIMITED...WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RETURN TO
NORMAL AS WELL AS DRY WEATHER. RETURN FLOW BEGINS IN EARNEST FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL...AND PERHAPS
A LITTLE MORE HUMIDITY AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GIVEN LOWERING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
A MOIST AIRMASS WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL
BRING SCT SHRA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT MENTION FROM THE TAF. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT.
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FEET.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ162-240>248-263>265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
523 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WSW FLOW INTO THE NRN LAKES
BETWEEN A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM MANITOBA INTO THE NRN PLAINS
AND A RIDGE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO QUEBEC. AT THE SFC...A WEAK
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NE MN INTO WRN WI. A MORE PROMINENT COLD FRONT
STRETCHED FROM JAMES BAY TO NEAR WINNIPEG AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER N CNTRL CANADA. FORCING FROM A WEAK SHRTWV IN NRN WI ALONG WITH
AN AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES TO 1.4 INCHES...WAS
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER FROM SW UPPER MI INTO E
CNTRL WI.
TODAY...EXPECT THE SHRTWV AND AREA OF PCPN ONLY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE
EAST THIS MORNING. WITH ONLY WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WEAK SHRTWV TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING...THE FCST KEEPS MENTION
OF JUST SCT SHRA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER CNTRL
UPPER MI. WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLD/SCT TSRA AS MLCAPE VALUES CLIMB INTO THE
400-800 J/KG RANGE.
TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE PCPN COVERAGE
SHOULD DIMINISH. HOWEVER...INCREASED QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSRA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
ON TUESDAY MORNING...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE
COLD FRONT MOVING OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE
850MB TROUGH AXIS HANGS UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AS THERE IS LACK OF A
SOUTHWARD PUSH DUE TO THE GENERAL ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING BROAD SYNOPTIC SUPPORT
MOVING THRU AS THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. AS SUCH...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY DESPITE THE SURFACE FRONT BEING SOUTH OF THE REGION.
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6+
C/KM...ALLOWING FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDER WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE SFC TEMPS WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S AND IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOCATED. WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE TUE EVENING HOURS AS WELL GIVEN
REMAINING MID LEVEL FORCING AND REMAINING DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
AT THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND COOL WITH THE
850MB TROUGH AND SFC FRONT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA. STILL SOME
WEAK TROUGHINESS AT 500MB AND AS SUCH WEAK MID LEVEL Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA ALL DAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY AND VERY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES COMBINED WITH ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR
NOW. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT CHANCES ARE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT TIME TIME.
IN THE EXTENDED...ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAKE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE
BROAD SCALE FEATURES WHICH AT LEAST GIVES SOME BASIC CONFIDENCE ON
WHEN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE. ON THURSDAY...THE ECMWF
AND GFS BOTH SHOW A COMPACT VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY AS THE 850MB FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE VERY LIMITED...WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RETURN TO
NORMAL AS WELL AS DRY WEATHER. RETURN FLOW BEGINS IN EARNEST FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL...AND PERHAPS
A LITTLE MORE HUMIDITY AND SUMMER LIKE WEATHER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GIVEN LOWERING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
SOME -SHRA MAY IMPACT IWD AND CMX TNGT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES NEWD
INTO THE UPR GREAT LKS. THESE SITES WL LIKELY SEE DVLPG MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY IF SOME HEAVIER RA
FALLS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE IFR CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY AT CMX WHERE MOISTENING OF THE LK COOLED AIRMASS WOULD
RESULT IN FOG/STRATUS...BUT RATHER DRY NATURE OF AIRMASS IN PLACE
NEAR TAF ISSUANCE AND DIMINISHING -SHRA TO THE SW INDICATES THIS CHC
IS NOT THAT HI. AT SAW...LO CLDS NEAR THE LK MI SHORE MAY ARRIVE
LATER TNGT IN LLVL SLY FLOW. AS THE UPR DISTURBANCE EXITS TO THE NE
ON MON AND DAYTIME HEATING TAKE HOLD...ANY FOG/LO CLDS SHOULD DSPT
AND GIVE WAY TO VFR WX. BUT THE LO CLDS COULD BE RESILIENT AT CMX
WITH LK MODIFIED AND PSBLY RA COOLED AIRMASS DOMINATING. MORE
INSTABILITY SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS COULD IMPACT SAW MAINLY IN THE
AFTN AND EARLY EVNG. BEST CHC FOR MORE LO CLDS/FOG TO DVLP WOULD BE
AT CMX...WITH RELATIVELY COOL/MOIST MARINE LYR DOMINATING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT.
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS WITH WAVES BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FEET.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ162-240>248-263>265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
654 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A WEAK COLD FRONT UNDERNEATH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE
FRONT SLOWING ITS PROGRESS ONCE IT DROPS S OF MN/WI AND EVENTUALLY
SETTLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY REGIONS. UNTIL THIS FRONT DOES EXIT...CLUSTERS OF
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL IMPACT MAINLY ERN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX
CWFA THRU THIS EVE. THE KEY ISSUE WITH STORMS THIS EVE WILL BE
SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND A DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE /PWATS AGAIN OVER 1
INCH/ SUCH THAT RAINFALL RATES IN SOME LOCATIONS MAY EASILY EXCEED
2 IN/HR. IT DOES LOOK SUCH THAT ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL STAY AWAY FROM
AREAS ALREADY EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...BUT GIVEN THAT
MUCH OF THE AREA IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR PRECIP...IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE STANDING WATER IN MANY LOCALES. THE PRECIP
WILL GRADUALLY END THRU THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN POTENTIALLY SOME FOG
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURG THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS ACROSS THE AREA. NOT CONFIDENT ON THE
LOCATION OF FOG SO HAVE HELD OFF ITS MENTION INSTEAD OF PLASTERING
IT FOR ALL AREAS...AND IT MAY ALSO END UP AS A MIX OF LOW STRATUS
RATHER THAN PURELY FOG DUE TO WINDS STAYING CLOSE TO 5 KT
OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW
UP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS APPROACHING
70F...WHILE AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL EITHER 1) KEEP THE
ENVIRONMENT CAPPED LEADING TO A WARM AND MUGGY WEEKEND...OR 2) SET
THE STAGE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.
THURSDAY NIGHT...AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A STRONG 140KT UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA HEADED
TOWARD THE OREGON COAST. MEANWHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PROVIDE THE FORCING FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CINH
ERODING AND AROUND 500 J/KG OF CAPE TO GO ALONG WITH WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION. BOTH THE THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT A
NEGLIGIBLE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...DID SPLIT THE
PRECIP GRIDS INTO 6HR WINDOWS TO BETTER DEPICT THE DEPENDENCE ON
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION.
BY FRIDAY THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL JET CRASHES OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LEE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
CO/WY FOOTHILLS...WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. CLOSER TO HOME...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL
THETA_E ADVECTION. THE NAM 24.12 IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
PRECIP...BRINGING 1 TO 1.5 IN ACROSS THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DECREASES OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH
DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
SOUTHERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS APPROACHING THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MN/WI...
AND PWATS NEAR 1.75 TO 2.00IN. THIS WARM MOIST AIR BENEATH
700-500MB LAPSE RATES OF 8C/KM WILL LEAD TO 2500 TO 3000 J/KG OF
CAPE BY THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS HINT
AT CAPPING...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. 500MB HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE ALTHOUGH THE
925MB JET INCREASES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THERE IS NOT
A STRONG SIGNAL OF EITHER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR CONVERGENCE ZONE
AS WAS THE CASE LAST WEEK...WHEN CENTRAL MN/WI HAD EASTERLY WINDS
AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE HAS SOUTHERLIES.
IN SUMMARY...THE THERMODYNAMICS...DEEP SHEAR PROFILES AND PWATS
SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...IF THE GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES THE ACTIVITY
WOULD BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA WHILE OUR REGION REMAINS
CAPPED. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP OUT WEST...AND TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH THE
VEERING LOW LEVEL JET...BUT AT THIS POINT THERE ARE LARGE
UNCERTAINTIES IN LOCATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
THE TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
BRAINERD THROUGH ST. CLOUD TO THE TWIN CITIES AND ON TO THE SOUTH
OF EAU CLAIRE. THE BOUNDARY IS DRIFTING SW NEAR 10 KNOTS. WINDS
SHIFT FROM WNW TO NE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. POCKETS OF
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOW EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND WEST
CENTRAL WI WITH KSTC...KRNH AND KEAU HAVING A THREAT FOR ABOUT THE
NEXT TWO HOURS. STATUS AND FOG...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MN WILL
SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THE RUC AND NAM 0.5KM CPD/S
POINT TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS UNDER 1K. DROPPED CEILINGS TO
006-008 FOR MOST OF THE SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KMSP WHERE
CIGS OF 012 USED. MVFR BR WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW CEILINGS DURING
THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MVFR IN THE 15Z-16Z TIME FRAME AND VFR BY AFTERNOON. THERE
IS SOME THREAT FOR MORE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT IT/S NOT AS CLEAR CUT AS TODAY.
KMSP...SURFACE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY MOVING SW ACROSS THE
AIRFIELD. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE ENE IN ITS WAKE AND THEN BECOME
MORE NNE IN THE EVENING. SHRA/TSRA THREAT IS GREATEST TO THE EAST
OF THE AIRFIELD EARLY THIS EVENING. CEILINGS NEAR 1K SPREADING IN
BETWEEN 08Z-10Z ALONG WITH MVFR BR. CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFTING IN THE
MORNING AND BECOMING VFR BY AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY AFTN. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY AFTN. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SAT...MVFR SHRA/TSRA LIKELY...POSSIBLE IFR. WINDS SSE 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
259 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2014
A decaying MCV was moving through northeast MO into west central IL
early this morning. A 20-30kt southwesterly LLJ was also interacting
with multiple outflow boundaries across MO/IL at times. These
features should keep isolated to scattered convection percolating
through the early morning hours across parts of the CWA.
DCVA ahead of an approaching mid/upper vort max should provide
sufficient lift within a moist air mass for widespread SHRA/TSRA
today and tonight along a weak cold front with precip lingering into
Tue across the southeastern portion of the CWA. Expect daytime high
temperatures to be a bit cooler today due to widespread cloud cover
and pcpn. Some models depict a surface low developing along the
trailing edge of the surface cold front or effective boundary in OK
which then lifts northeastward through southeastern MO. If this
occurs, then schc-chc PoPs might be too low on Tue night into Wed
across the southeastern CWA.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2014
The upper air pattern remains nearly quasizonal through the middle
of the week with an occasional synoptic disturbance or remnant MCV
to support SHRA/TSRA through the week. Initially weak upper ridging
over MO/IL on Thu is forecast to amplify by the end of the week in
response to troughing over the West Coast. Expect daytime highs to
warm back into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees by the weekend due
to southwesterly surface flow and rising heights.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1028 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2014
Convection along outflow boundary will move through COU with
weaker convection moving through UIN until 07Z or 08Z Monday. Some
of this convection may make it into the St Louis metro area late
tonight, but may leave the St Louis metro area tafs dry for now
as the latest HRRR model dissipates most of the convection before
it makes it into the St Louis metro area. Should be mainly just
high level convective cloud debris outside of the shower/storm
activity late tonight. Diurnal cumulus clouds will develop late
Monday morning and afternoon with showers and thunderstorms
expected mainly during the late morning and afternoon for COU, the
afternoon for UIN, and the late afternoon and early evening for
the St Louis metro area as a weak cold front approaches. Surface
winds will be mainly swly on Monday.
Specifics for KSTL: Mainly just mid-high level clouds late tonight
with most of the convection remaining north and west of STL.
Diurnal cumulus clouds will develop late Monday morning and
afternoon with the best chance of showers and storms during the
late afternoon and early evening hours. The surface wind will be
mainly light and s-swly late tonight, then increasing to around
8-9 kts by Monday afternoon from a swly direction, and
diminishing Monday night and veering around to a w-nwly direction
after fropa by late Monday night.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1247 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
UPDATE TO FURTHER REFINE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WITH VERY SUBTLE FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED...COVERAGE
SHOULD ALSO BE LIMITED. BROAD AREA OF SC HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS WHICH MAY HAVE A LIMITING FACTOR ON HOW
FAST TEMPS RISE THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE MODELS PICKING UP ON THIS
AREA AS LOCATION OF SHRA/TSRA BUT LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT
NOTED ON VISIBLE SAT PICS AT THIS TIME...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE YET FOR THAT. HIGHER TERRAIN FURTHER WEST SHOULD
BE THE INITIATION FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT MUCH WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...AFTER A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
EMERGES FROM NERN CO AND MOVES EWD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
AS MCS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT CI SHIELD ALSO PROGRESSING
EWD. VISIBLE SAT PICS INDICATING POCKETS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IN THE FORM OF ENHANCEMENT OF AC LIKELY ON LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES.
SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME THREAT OF ISOLD SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A COUPLE TSRA THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
LIKELY AS RESULT OF LOCAL CONVERGENCE ENHANCEMENT AS SUBTLE UPPER
PV ANOMALY MOVES OUT OF SRN WY. WILL HAVE TO INVESTIGATE THIS A
BIT MORE FOR THE AFTERNOON IN ORDER TO FURTHER REFINE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES. OTHERWISE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS LOOK ON TRACK FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
ANOTHER MCS SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTN. THE
FORECAST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP MODEL AND 50 PERCENT OF THE
OTHER MODELS.
THE ONGOING MCS APPEARS TO BE TAKING ON A CYCLONIC ROTATION WITH THE
WARM SECTOR ACROSS SCNTL NEB AND THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS
SWRN NEB ATTM. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM COULD ROTATE THROUGH
SCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POPPING LEFT AND
RIGHT BETWEEN KLBF AND KLXN.
FOR TONIGHT...NEBULOUS POPS ARE IN THE FCST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
AREAS SOUTH. GIVEN THE INABILITY OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS TO
PREDICT NOCTURNAL RAIN EVENTS OF LATE...THE FCST IS FORCED TO
MAINTAIN A SCATTERED POP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
12Z TUESDAY AND BEYOND. NEAR DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
HEADLINE THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS THE
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DIRECT TWO SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST OF WHICH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY. THERE
REMAINS GOOD CONSENSUS HOWEVER THAT THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN THROUGH
MUCH THE DAY AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
CHARACTERIZED AS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH GENERALLY 25-40 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED...BUT
POSSIBLY THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS
THERE/S SUPPORT OF ONE OR MORE MCS/S PASSING THROUGH THE SANDHILLS
REGION. STORM MOTION WILL BE ON THE SLOW SIDE...GENERALLY LESS THAN
20KTS...AND WITH PWATS INCREASING OVER AN INCH AND A
THIRD...RAINFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR TWO AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW AMPLITUDE
TRANSITORY RIDGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE NEXT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NOW QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IMPACTS THE
REGION. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE GENERALLY TIED TO THE LOCATION OF A LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND HOW CONVECTION FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY PLAYS OUT. AT
THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE FAVORING NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH THE HIGHER
POP CHANCES /40 PERCENT/ WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH
THE FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MAY EFFECTIVELY CAP THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AS MIDLEVEL TEMPS WARM AOA 14C...AT THIS POINT
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CWA DRY THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN BORDER WHERE RIDGE RIDING WAVE
MAY SPARK CONVECTION. FOR LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE THERE YET AS THE FINER DETAILS OF HOW THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL PLAY OUT ARE STILL AN ENIGMA. IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT OF A FAIRLY STRONG
TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH MOST OF THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TARGETING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOLID
MOISTURE RETURN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE/SFC TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND.
STORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE....BUT WITH
LACKING CONSISTENCY...WILL CAP POP CHANCES AT 40 PERCENT OR LESS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...LOWS WILL BE SEASONAL IN THE 50 AND 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE USUAL CONVEATS EXISTS HOWEVER IN THE SUMMER CONVECTIVE SEASON
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TSRA IN THE AREA. SHORT RANGE
MODELS INCLUDING CAMS SUCH AS THE HRRR...CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ISOLATED TSRA POTENTIAL MOVING FROM THE WRN SANDHILLS SEWD THIS
AFTERNOON...MUCH LIKE YDAY. CURRENT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE INTO THE WRN SANDHILLS SUGGESTS BROAD CONVERGENCE
THERE...BUT NOTHING FOCUSED AND THIS IS CONFIRMED IN SPC/LAPS MESO
GUIDANCE. HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON OF TAFS DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION...AND LIMITED
COVERAGE SHOULD SOMETHING DEVELOP.
OF GREATER INTEREST WOULD BE THE EVOLUTION OF A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
MOVING OUT OF THE CO FRONT RANGE LATER THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE KLBF TAF IN THE 05-12Z TIME FRAME. AGAIN HAVE LEFT
MENTION OF PRECIP OUT FOR NOW AS MOST SHORT TERM MODELS TAKE THE
SYSTEM INTO NWRN KS...THOUGH A MID LEVEL CIG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SUCH A SOLUTION.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JWS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...JWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1149 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
UPDATE TO FURTHER REFINE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WITH VERY SUBTLE FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED...COVERAGE
SHOULD ALSO BE LIMITED. BROAD AREA OF SC HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS WHICH MAY HAVE A LIMITING FACTOR ON HOW
FAST TEMPS RISE THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE MODELS PICKING UP ON THIS
AREA AS LOCATION OF SHRA/TSRA BUT LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT
NOTED ON VISIBLE SAT PICS AT THIS TIME...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE YET FOR THAT. HIGHER TERRAIN FURTHER WEST SHOULD
BE THE INITIATION FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT MUCH WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING...AFTER A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
EMERGES FROM NERN CO AND MOVES EWD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
AS MCS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT CI SHIELD ALSO PROGRESSING
EWD. VISIBLE SAT PICS INDICATING POCKETS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IN THE FORM OF ENHANCEMENT OF AC LIKELY ON LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES.
SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME THREAT OF ISOLD SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A COUPLE TSRA THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
LIKELY AS RESULT OF LOCAL CONVERGENCE ENHANCEMENT AS SUBTLE UPPER
PV ANOMALY MOVES OUT OF SRN WY. WILL HAVE TO INVESTIGATE THIS A
BIT MORE FOR THE AFTERNOON IN ORDER TO FURTHER REFINE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES. OTHERWISE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS LOOK ON TRACK FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
ANOTHER MCS SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTN. THE
FORECAST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP MODEL AND 50 PERCENT OF THE
OTHER MODELS.
THE ONGOING MCS APPEARS TO BE TAKING ON A CYCLONIC ROTATION WITH THE
WARM SECTOR ACROSS SCNTL NEB AND THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS
SWRN NEB ATTM. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM COULD ROTATE THROUGH
SCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POPPING LEFT AND
RIGHT BETWEEN KLBF AND KLXN.
FOR TONIGHT...NEBULOUS POPS ARE IN THE FCST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
AREAS SOUTH. GIVEN THE INABILITY OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS TO
PREDICT NOCTURNAL RAIN EVENTS OF LATE...THE FCST IS FORCED TO
MAINTAIN A SCATTERED POP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
12Z TUESDAY AND BEYOND. NEAR DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
HEADLINE THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS THE
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DIRECT TWO SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST OF WHICH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY. THERE
REMAINS GOOD CONSENSUS HOWEVER THAT THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN THROUGH
MUCH THE DAY AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
CHARACTERIZED AS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH GENERALLY 25-40 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED...BUT
POSSIBLY THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS
THERE/S SUPPORT OF ONE OR MORE MCS/S PASSING THROUGH THE SANDHILLS
REGION. STORM MOTION WILL BE ON THE SLOW SIDE...GENERALLY LESS THAN
20KTS...AND WITH PWATS INCREASING OVER AN INCH AND A
THIRD...RAINFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR TWO AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW AMPLITUDE
TRANSITORY RIDGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE NEXT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NOW QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IMPACTS THE
REGION. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE GENERALLY TIED TO THE LOCATION OF A LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND HOW CONVECTION FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY PLAYS OUT. AT
THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE FAVORING NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH THE HIGHER
POP CHANCES /40 PERCENT/ WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH
THE FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MAY EFFECTIVELY CAP THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AS MIDLEVEL TEMPS WARM AOA 14C...AT THIS POINT
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CWA DRY THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN BORDER WHERE RIDGE RIDING WAVE
MAY SPARK CONVECTION. FOR LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE THERE YET AS THE FINER DETAILS OF HOW THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL PLAY OUT ARE STILL AN ENIGMA. IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT OF A FAIRLY STRONG
TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH MOST OF THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TARGETING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOLID
MOISTURE RETURN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE/SFC TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND.
STORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE....BUT WITH
LACKING CONSISTENCY...WILL CAP POP CHANCES AT 40 PERCENT OR LESS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...LOWS WILL BE SEASONAL IN THE 50 AND 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 TODAY. SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...MAINLY FROM 18Z ONWARD AS STORMS
DEVELOP NORTH AND MOVE SOUTH.
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS THE MODELS SUGGEST A SECOND
AREA OF TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS AND CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. LATER FORECASTS USING THE RAP MODEL WILL
HOPEFULLY CLARIFY THIS AS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS HAVE SHOWN
POOR SKILL FORECASTING STORM DEVELOPMENT LATELY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JWS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
929 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
AS MCS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT CI SHIELD ALSO PROGRESSING
EWD. VISIBLE SAT PICS INDICATING POCKETS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IN THE FORM OF ENHANCEMENT OF AC LIKELY ON LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES.
SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME THREAT OF ISOLD SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A COUPLE TSRA THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
LIKELY AS RESULT OF LOCAL CONVERGENCE ENHANCEMENT AS SUBTLE UPPER
PV ANOMALY MOVES OUT OF SRN WY. WILL HAVE TO INVESTIGATE THIS A
BIT MORE FOR THE AFTERNOON IN ORDER TO FURTHER REFINE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES. OTHERWISE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS LOOK ON TRACK FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
ANOTHER MCS SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTN. THE
FORECAST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP MODEL AND 50 PERCENT OF THE
OTHER MODELS.
THE ONGOING MCS APPEARS TO BE TAKING ON A CYCLONIC ROTATION WITH THE
WARM SECTOR ACROSS SCNTL NEB AND THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS
SWRN NEB ATTM. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM COULD ROTATE THROUGH
SCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POPPING LEFT AND
RIGHT BETWEEN KLBF AND KLXN.
FOR TONIGHT...NEBULOUS POPS ARE IN THE FCST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
AREAS SOUTH. GIVEN THE INABILITY OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS TO
PREDICT NOCTURNAL RAIN EVENTS OF LATE...THE FCST IS FORCED TO
MAINTAIN A SCATTERED POP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
12Z TUESDAY AND BEYOND. NEAR DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
HEADLINE THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS THE
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DIRECT TWO SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST OF WHICH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY. THERE
REMAINS GOOD CONSENSUS HOWEVER THAT THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN THROUGH
MUCH THE DAY AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
CHARACTERIZED AS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH GENERALLY 25-40 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED...BUT
POSSIBLY THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS
THERE/S SUPPORT OF ONE OR MORE MCS/S PASSING THROUGH THE SANDHILLS
REGION. STORM MOTION WILL BE ON THE SLOW SIDE...GENERALLY LESS THAN
20KTS...AND WITH PWATS INCREASING OVER AN INCH AND A
THIRD...RAINFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR TWO AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW AMPLITUDE
TRANSITORY RIDGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE NEXT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NOW QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IMPACTS THE
REGION. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE GENERALLY TIED TO THE LOCATION OF A LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND HOW CONVECTION FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY PLAYS OUT. AT
THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE FAVORING NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH THE HIGHER
POP CHANCES /40 PERCENT/ WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH
THE FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MAY EFFECTIVELY CAP THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AS MIDLEVEL TEMPS WARM AOA 14C...AT THIS POINT
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CWA DRY THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN BORDER WHERE RIDGE RIDING WAVE
MAY SPARK CONVECTION. FOR LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE THERE YET AS THE FINER DETAILS OF HOW THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL PLAY OUT ARE STILL AN ENIGMA. IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT OF A FAIRLY STRONG
TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH MOST OF THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TARGETING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOLID
MOISTURE RETURN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE/SFC TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND.
STORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE....BUT WITH
LACKING CONSISTENCY...WILL CAP POP CHANCES AT 40 PERCENT OR LESS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...LOWS WILL BE SEASONAL IN THE 50 AND 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 TODAY. SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...MAINLY FROM 18Z ONWARD AS STORMS
DEVELOP NORTH AND MOVE SOUTH.
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS THE MODELS SUGGEST A SECOND
AREA OF TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS AND CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. LATER FORECASTS USING THE RAP MODEL WILL
HOPEFULLY CLARIFY THIS AS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS HAVE SHOWN
POOR SKILL FORECASTING STORM DEVELOPMENT LATELY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JWS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
612 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
ANOTHER MCS SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTN. THE
FORECAST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP MODEL AND 50 PERCENT OF THE
OTHER MODELS.
THE ONGOING MCS APPEARS TO BE TAKING ON A CYCLONIC ROTATION WITH THE
WARM SECTOR ACROSS SCNTL NEB AND THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS
SWRN NEB ATTM. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM COULD ROTATE THROUGH
SCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POPPING LEFT AND
RIGHT BETWEEN KLBF AND KLXN.
FOR TONIGHT...NEBULOUS POPS ARE IN THE FCST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
AREAS SOUTH. GIVEN THE INABILITY OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS TO
PREDICT NOCTURNAL RAIN EVENTS OF LATE...THE FCST IS FORCED TO
MAINTAIN A SCATTERED POP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
12Z TUESDAY AND BEYOND. NEAR DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
HEADLINE THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS THE
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DIRECT TWO SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST OF WHICH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY. THERE
REMAINS GOOD CONSENSUS HOWEVER THAT THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN THROUGH
MUCH THE DAY AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
CHARACTERIZED AS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH GENERALLY 25-40 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED...BUT
POSSIBLY THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS
THERE/S SUPPORT OF ONE OR MORE MCS/S PASSING THROUGH THE SANDHILLS
REGION. STORM MOTION WILL BE ON THE SLOW SIDE...GENERALLY LESS THAN
20KTS...AND WITH PWATS INCREASING OVER AN INCH AND A
THIRD...RAINFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR TWO AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW AMPLITUDE
TRANSITORY RIDGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE NEXT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NOW QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IMPACTS THE
REGION. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE GENERALLY TIED TO THE LOCATION OF A LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND HOW CONVECTION FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY PLAYS OUT. AT
THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE FAVORING NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH THE HIGHER
POP CHANCES /40 PERCENT/ WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH
THE FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MAY EFFECTIVELY CAP THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AS MIDLEVEL TEMPS WARM AOA 14C...AT THIS POINT
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CWA DRY THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN BORDER WHERE RIDGE RIDING WAVE
MAY SPARK CONVECTION. FOR LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE THERE YET AS THE FINER DETAILS OF HOW THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL PLAY OUT ARE STILL AN ENIGMA. IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT OF A FAIRLY STRONG
TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH MOST OF THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TARGETING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOLID
MOISTURE RETURN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE/SFC TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND.
STORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE....BUT WITH
LACKING CONSISTENCY...WILL CAP POP CHANCES AT 40 PERCENT OR LESS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...LOWS WILL BE SEASONAL IN THE 50 AND 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 TODAY. SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...MAINLY FROM 18Z ONWARD AS STORMS
DEVELOP NORTH AND MOVE SOUTH.
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS THE MODELS SUGGEST A SECOND
AREA OF TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTL SANDHILLS AND CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. LATER FORECASTS USING THE RAP MODEL WILL
HOPEFULLY CLARIFY THIS AS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS HAVE SHOWN
POOR SKILL FORECASTING STORM DEVELOPMENT LATELY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
319 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
ANOTHER MCS SHOULD DROP THROUGH THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTN. THE
FORECAST USES 50 PERCENT OF THE RAP MODEL AND 50 PERCENT OF THE
OTHER MODELS.
THE ONGOING MCS APPEARS TO BE TAKING ON A CYCLONIC ROTATION WITH THE
WARM SECTOR ACROSS SCNTL NEB AND THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS
SWRN NEB ATTM. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM COULD ROTATE THROUGH
SCNTL NEB THIS MORNING AND SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POPPING LEFT AND
RIGHT BETWEEN KLBF AND KLXN.
FOR TONIGHT...NEBULOUS POPS ARE IN THE FCST ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND
AREAS SOUTH. GIVEN THE INABILITY OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS TO
PREDICT NOCTURNAL RAIN EVENTS OF LATE...THE FCST IS FORCED TO
MAINTAIN A SCATTERED POP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
12Z TUESDAY AND BEYOND. NEAR DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
HEADLINE THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS THE
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DIRECT TWO SUBTLE
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST OF WHICH SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY. THERE
REMAINS GOOD CONSENSUS HOWEVER THAT THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN THROUGH
MUCH THE DAY AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
CHARACTERIZED AS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH GENERALLY 25-40 KTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED...BUT
POSSIBLY THE GREATER IMPACT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS
THERE/S SUPPORT OF ONE OR MORE MCS/S PASSING THROUGH THE SANDHILLS
REGION. STORM MOTION WILL BE ON THE SLOW SIDE...GENERALLY LESS THAN
20KTS...AND WITH PWATS INCREASING OVER AN INCH AND A
THIRD...RAINFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR TWO AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING THE EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW AMPLITUDE
TRANSITORY RIDGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE NEXT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NOW QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IMPACTS THE
REGION. TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE GENERALLY TIED TO THE LOCATION OF A LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND HOW CONVECTION FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY PLAYS OUT. AT
THIS TIME THE MODELS ARE FAVORING NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH THE HIGHER
POP CHANCES /40 PERCENT/ WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH
THE FORECAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MAY EFFECTIVELY CAP THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AS MIDLEVEL TEMPS WARM AOA 14C...AT THIS POINT
WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CWA DRY THURSDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN BORDER WHERE RIDGE RIDING WAVE
MAY SPARK CONVECTION. FOR LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE THERE YET AS THE FINER DETAILS OF HOW THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL PLAY OUT ARE STILL AN ENIGMA. IN THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT OF A FAIRLY STRONG
TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH MOST OF THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TARGETING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOLID
MOISTURE RETURN AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE/SFC TROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND.
STORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE....BUT WITH
LACKING CONSISTENCY...WILL CAP POP CHANCES AT 40 PERCENT OR LESS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S...LOWS WILL BE SEASONAL IN THE 50 AND 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE KLBF
TERMINAL THROUGH 09Z MONDAY. CIGS MAY DROP DOWN TO 7000 FT AGL IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. FOR MONDAY...CIGS AROUND 5000 FT
AGL ARE EXPECTED WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL END ON MONDAY
EVENING WITH CIGS INCREASING TO 15000 FT AGL. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...EXPECT BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS RANGING FROM 10000 TO
20000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT MONDAY
MORNING...WITH BROKEN CIGS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
EVENING WITH LEVELS AROUND 12000 FT AGL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
100 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN CENTERS AROUND THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. OVER THE LAST 8 HOURS
HAVE GREATLY REDUCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE GREATEST REDUCTION IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAS BEEN ACROSS NEBRASKA.
THERE IS MODEST TO EVEN FAIRLY GOOD INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ESPECIALLY ACROSS KANSAS...WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. WIND SHEAR IS
RATHER WEAK WITH DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR OF LESS THAN 30 KTS. THE
BIG ISSUE CENTERS AROUND FORCING OR THE LIFTING MECHANISM FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. FORCING MECHANISMS ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER IOWA...A SOUTHWARD SLIPPING
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...AND A VERY WEAK UPPER
WAVE CENTERED OVER THE BLACK HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA EXTENDING INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE SFC FRONT IS THE PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AND IT IS
GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH WHERE IT WILL EXIT OUR AREA BY LATER THIS
EVENING. THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORMS SEEM MOST LIKELY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SFC
FRONT OVER NORTHERN KANSAS AND THUS HAVE KEPT POPS AROUND 50/50 IN
THESE SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH THE HIGHER POPS REALLY BEING SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SOME FORECAST MODELS GENERATE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE VERY WEAK
UPPER WAVE...BUT 4 OUT OF 6 MODELS HAVE THIS PRECIPITATION DIEING
OFF BEFORE REALLY REACHING OUR AREA TONIGHT. ONE OUTSIDE WRF RUN AND
THE HRRR DO BRING CONVECTION FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT WHILE MOST MODELS DO NOT.
WILL GO WITH THE MAJORITY GIVEN THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL JET
TO HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTION TONIGHT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN FORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACROSS KANSAS
COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.
MONDAY...MOST FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN
WEAK SHORT WAVE STORM SYSTEMS AND LIKELY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND KEEPING THINGS A BIT COOLER THAN
TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS
WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST FM CANADA TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
REGION AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONING WEST NORTHWEST FOR A TIME AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION. A SERIES OF WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW WILL AID IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH TIMING/PLACEMENT DEPENDENT
UPON WAVE TIMING AND BOUNDARY LOCATIONS AND BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL
BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW CONVECTION UNFOLDS THE PREVIOUS DAY. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT DETAILS ATTM AND WITH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
JUST CANNOT RULE OUT TSTM CHCS NEARLY EVERY DAY. CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND ROLL EASTWARD...OR MAY INITIATE
ALONG A BOUNDARY WITHIN THE AREA.
SREF INSTABILITY PROGS INDICATE THE GREATER INSTABILITY MONDAY NIGHT
WILL RESIDE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE 1000 J/KG. WITH THE MORE MARGINAL INSTABILITY ON
TUESDAY...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH SEVERE WX JUST YET WITH INSTABILITY
FURTHER INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MID WEEK WITH RETURN
FLOW...STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLVL JET AND WAA/UPPER RIDGING AHEAD
OF UPPER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW. UPPER RIDGING SETTLES OVERHEAD
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK AND MID LEVEL TEMPS INCREASE TO
AROUND 14C SO CAP MAY LIMIT CONVECTION FOR A TIME. MODELS ARE NOT
IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING/PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
AS IT PUSHES EAST THRU THE MOUNTAINS TOWARDS THE PLAINS AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR BUT CHCS FOR STORMS INCREASE AGAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL BEING SAID...INTERMITTENT CHANCES
FOR STORMS CONTINUE AND TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY SEASONAL ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH VARYING
AMOUNTS OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1202 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR SHOWED QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER. MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES COULD BE
PICKED OUT MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...FROM MONTANA DOWN THROUGH NEW
MEXICO. THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE WAS SEEN OVER WESTERN COLORADO AT MID
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE
SECOND MORE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE SEEN OVER EASTERN IDAHO...WHICH WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS
SITUATED FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. NORTH OF
THIS FRONT COLD AIR HAD ADVECTED INTO NEBRASKA...WITH MID AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S. DECENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DID REMAIN IN PLACE...AS DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA WERE
STILL IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AN EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD HAD DEVELOPED
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. DESPITE DECENT SB INSTABILITY OF 1500-2500
J/KG WITH NO CAP...ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE HAD A PROBLEM
MAINTAINING WITH NO ADDITIONAL FORCING IN PLACE.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR IS INDICATING
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM
OVER THE ROCKIES...FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAK WITH THE LACK OF
FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND VERY LITTLE IF ANY FORCING COMING
FROM ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SO WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVITY
MOVING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
OVER WESTERN COLORADO MOVES EAST EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. THE
LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AS FAR
NORTH AS SCOTTSBLUFF. THESE STORMS WOULD THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG A
THETA-E GRADIENT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING...THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF ANY ACTIVITY AND WITH THE BETTER FORCING OVER
KANSAS EXPECT THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA.
FOR MONDAY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER EASTERN IDAHO WILL MOVE
ACROSS WYOMING AND THEN ACROSS NEBRASKA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
NOT EXTREMELY CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE WILL BE AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
DRIER...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND NO REAL SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE ALOFT. AT THE PRESENT TIME THINK ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHERE THE
CONVECTION WILL ACTUALLY BE. THE NAM SHOWS QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF ARE KEEPING IT MAINLY OVER THE
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HAVE SIDED WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FOR
TODAY AND HAVE LIMITED CHANCES FOR THE WESTERN AREAS. AS FOR HIGHS
ON MONDAY...LOOKING FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOW 80S AS COOLER AIR SLOWLY CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF TWO DISTINCT DISTURBANCES. MAINTAINED 30
POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...TO 40 POPS
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES FROM GFS INDICATE 120 TO NEAR 140
PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO 30 TO 40
KTS. THIS SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION NEAR 10 KTS.
SECOND DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH 40 POPS TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY 40 POPS FOR
NCTRL WEDNESDAY.
MAINLY 20 TO 30 POPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DUE TO WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE REGION AND SWRLY FLOW TO OUR WEST WHICH MOVES IN BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL AGREEMENT IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS RATHER
POOR. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL WARM FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S TUESDAY...MID 80S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TO AROUND 90 BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE KLBF
TERMINAL THROUGH 09Z MONDAY. CIGS MAY DROP DOWN TO 7000 FT AGL IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. FOR MONDAY...CIGS AROUND 5000 FT
AGL ARE EXPECTED WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL END ON MONDAY
EVENING WITH CIGS INCREASING TO 15000 FT AGL. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...EXPECT BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS RANGING FROM 10000 TO
20000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT MONDAY
MORNING...WITH BROKEN CIGS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
EVENING WITH LEVELS AROUND 12000 FT AGL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
953 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CAROLINAS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM TUESDAY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING... YIELDING WEAKENING
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE RATHER MOIST AIRMASS (WITH PW`S OF
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES) COMBINED WITH WEAK IMPULSES IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND THE LATEST RAP SHOWING A LEAST SOME LINGERING WEAK
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT... WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST. EXPECT WE WILL SEE A COMBINATION OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUD SKIES TONIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
RIBBON OF 2.0" PWAT ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE 1000-700MB TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN WEDNESDAY 18Z-06 THURSDAY WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WHILE SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE
AS BETTER DPVA SKIRTS NORTH OF THE AREA...NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE LEE SIDE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BISECTING THE AREA WILL SERVE
AS A SECONDARY TRIGGER.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...WITH MARGINAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ~15KTS AND MLCAPE 1000 TO 1500...JUST SLIGHTLY
BETTER ENVIRONMENT THAN TODAY. WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN
PREVIOUS DAY...AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH A SEVERE THREAT...BUT
CAN NOT RULE AN ISOLATED WET DOWNBURST...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FIRST
ONE OR TWO STORMS OF THE DAY OR ALONG A WELL DEFINED SFC COLD POOL.
CONVECTION/POPS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
THURSDAY...MID LEVEL S/W AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT EXITS CENTRAL
NC EARLY THURSDAY. W-NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL FILTER
SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR INTO OUR REGION. STRONG HEATING AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY STILL INITIATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING/EXPANDING UPPER LEVEL ANTI-
CYCLONE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. MID LEVEL INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH
WARMING ALOFT WILL ACT AS A CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE...LIMITING
CONVECTION INITIATION. GFS DEPICTS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW WHICH CAUSES
MOISTURE TO POOL ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS SCENARIO USUALLY
SUPPORTS SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...ECMWF A BIT DRIER AND SUGGEST NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED
CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY IN VICINITY OF THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND
ALONG THE INLAND-ADVANCING SEABREEZE. CURRENTLY FAVOR THE ECMWF
SOLUTION AS GFS HAS A TENDENCY TO BE TOO WET IN THIS TYPE OF
METEOROLOGICAL SITUATION. FOR NOW..WILL LIMIT POPS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAY SEE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AS
A S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FLATTENS THE RIDGE. THE LOWER HEIGHTS
OVER CENTRAL NC IN CONJUNCTION WITH AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IN VICINITY OF A SHARPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH SUGGEST A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION AREAWIDE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. CAPPED POPS AT 30 PERCENT FOR NOW AS TIMING OF
PERTURBATIONS WILL BE THE KEY TO ENHANCED CONVECTIVE CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEEKEND WHEN AFTERNOON TEMPS MAY BE
IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM TUESDAY...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MOVING UP FROM SC INTO
THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS MAY IMPACT KFAY...KGSO AND KINT
BY 03Z. HOWEVER...LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD DECREASE THE COVERAGE WITH
TIME AND CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP REACHING KRDU AND KRWI IS LOWER.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS IN THE 700 TO 1500 FT
RANGE TO DEVELOP. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST AT KGSO AND KINT...BUT STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH VERY HIGH MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO AN ABOVE
AVERAGE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE STORMS MAY BE MOST LIKELY...BUT BASED
ON GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER AT KGSO/KINT AND KFAY.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORM ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...EARLY MORNING
STRATUS/FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD/MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...CBL/BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1241 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
REX BLOCKING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BROADEN FURTHER INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONUS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO HIGHER CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER THE DAKOTAS
LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA IN CYCLONIC
FLOW. FOR EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE HAVE BUMPED UP POPS OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER AS COVERAGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND HAVE PULLED
POPS SOUTH A BIT FURTHER. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 841 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH UPPER LOW/TROF
NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG CONTINUING TO SAG TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE COOL
FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. STILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AS THESE
FEATURES WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE STATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS GENERATING HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME VIRGA WITH NO
PRECIP SO FAR REACHING THE GROUND. OTHERWISE MAIN FEATURE TODAY
WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL OW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WHICH WILL MOVE
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH PEAK
HEATING...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP. THE MOST RECENT TWO HRRR RUNS HAVE INCREASED THEIR
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS. CAPPED THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SCATTERED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
JUST A REMNANT OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA ON TUESDAY. THIS UPPER FEATURE ACCOMPANIED BY AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HELP FOCUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY
NIGHT ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE COLD FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF
THE STATE...BECOMING STATIONARY...TO RETURN EVENTUALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ADVANCE OF A
WESTERN UPPER TROUGH. THIS H500 TROUGH AND SURFACE WARM FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL MCS TYPE SYSTEMS
SPREADING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION AND WILL BE MONITORING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN DURING THIS TIME FRAME. POPS
REMAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR THIS.
POPS TRAIL OFF INTO 20 TO 30S SUNDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED LOOK
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH OVER THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING LCL MVFR CIGS.
TONIGHT...SOME AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFFECTING
THE KISN AND KMOT TERMINALS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SYNOPSIS...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
855 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
REX BLOCKING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BROADEN FURTHER INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONUS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO HIGHER CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER THE DAKOTAS
LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH UPPER LOW/TROF
NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG CONTINUING TO SAG TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE COOL
FRONT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. STILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AS THESE
FEATURES WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE STATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS GENERATING HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME VIRGA WITH NO
PRECIP SO FAR REACHING THE GROUND. OTHERWISE MAIN FEATURE TODAY
WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL OW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WHICH WILL MOVE
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH PEAK
HEATING...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP. THE MOST RECENT TWO HRRR RUNS HAVE INCREASED THEIR
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS. CAPPED THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SCATTERED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
JUST A REMNANT OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA ON TUESDAY. THIS UPPER FEATURE ACCOMPANIED BY AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HELP FOCUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY
NIGHT ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE COLD FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF
THE STATE...BECOMING STATIONARY...TO RETURN EVENTUALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ADVANCE OF A
WESTERN UPPER TROUGH. THIS H500 TROUGH AND SURFACE WARM FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL MCS TYPE SYSTEMS
SPREADING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION AND WILL BE MONITORING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN DURING THIS TIME FRAME. POPS
REMAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR THIS.
POPS TRAIL OFF INTO 20 TO 30S SUNDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED LOOK
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO NAIL DOWN TIMING AND
COVERAGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS AT KMOT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SYNOPSIS...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
647 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
REX BLOCKING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BROADEN FURTHER INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONUS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO HIGHER CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER THE DAKOTAS
LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS GENERATING HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME VIRGA WITH NO
PRECIP SO FAR REACHING THE GROUND. OTHERWISE MAIN FEATURE TODAY
WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL OW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WHICH WILL MOVE
SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH PEAK
HEATING...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP. THE MOST RECENT TWO HRRR RUNS HAVE INCREASED THEIR
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS. CAPPED THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SCATTERED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
JUST A REMNANT OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA ON TUESDAY. THIS UPPER FEATURE ACCOMPANIED BY AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HELP FOCUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY
NIGHT ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE COLD FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF
THE STATE...BECOMING STATIONARY...TO RETURN EVENTUALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ADVANCE OF A
WESTERN UPPER TROUGH. THIS H500 TROUGH AND SURFACE WARM FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL MCS TYPE SYSTEMS
SPREADING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION AND WILL BE MONITORING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN DURING THIS TIME FRAME. POPS
REMAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR THIS.
POPS TRAIL OFF INTO 20 TO 30S SUNDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED LOOK
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO NAIL DOWN TIMING AND
COVERAGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS AT KMOT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SYNOPSIS...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
343 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
REX BLOCKING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BROADEN FURTHER INTO NORTHWESTERN
CONUS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO HIGHER CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER THE DAKOTAS
LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH PEAK
HEATING...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP. THE MOST RECENT TWO HRRR RUNS HAVE INCREASED THEIR
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS. CAPPED THE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SCATTERED FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
JUST A REMNANT OF THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA ON TUESDAY. THIS UPPER FEATURE ACCOMPANIED BY AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HELP FOCUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY
NIGHT ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE COLD FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF
THE STATE...BECOMING STATIONARY...TO RETURN EVENTUALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ADVANCE OF A
WESTERN UPPER TROUGH. THIS H500 TROUGH AND SURFACE WARM FRONT
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL MCS TYPE SYSTEMS
SPREADING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION AND WILL BE MONITORING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN DURING THIS TIME FRAME. POPS
REMAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR THIS.
POPS TRAIL OFF INTO 20 TO 30S SUNDAY AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED LOOK
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO NAIL DOWN TIMING AND
COVERAGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS AT KMOT...WITH
KISN/KJMS TIED FOR SECOND.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...SCHECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
402 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MUGGY AIR DOMINATES. CONVECTION COVERAGE INCREASES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. FRONT
CREEPS THROUGH DURING WEDNESDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR EXPECTED
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DECENT FIELD OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CLOUDS EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
SO FAR...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH UPDRAFT STRENGTH TO KICK OFF A
FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. KEEPING ISOLD
ACTIVITY GOING FOR NOW...AND WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF
ISOLD POPS INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST RUC HINTS AT A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AT THE MID LEVELS OVER NORTHERN WV WHICH STILL MAY ACT AS A
TRIGGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AS QUASI STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES
SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL KY. CONTINUED TREND OF RAMPING UP
POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXES OUT 1.8 TO 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE LOWERING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN MID LEVEL
SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WEAKER 500 MB SUPPORT...WITH THE WEAKENING TROF
SWINGS THROUGH OUR CWA AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. SO MID LEVEL SUPPORT
ARRIVES WELL AFTER MAXIMUM HEATING.
WAS A BIT SLOWER TUESDAY EVENING...TRYING TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. STILL QUESTIONABLE ON COVERAGE ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT.
WILL HOLD SOME HIGHER LIKELY POPS LONGER WEDNESDAY MORNING IN MANY
COUNTIES FROM I-79 EAST. THOUGH...ON WEDNESDAY THE COVERAGE OF
THUNDER FORECAST TO BE LESS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS EXPECTED.
700 MB STEERING FLOW IS ABOUT 20 KNOTS ON BOTH SIDE OF THIS TROF.
YET...WILL CONSIDER ADDING A HAZARD TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL TO A PORTION OF OUR CWA...FOR KEEPING AN EYE ON RAIN
AMOUNTS AND SMALL STREAM FLASH FLOODING.
THERE MAY BE SOME FOG DEVELOPING FOR 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY...BUT
CLOUDS AND LOW STRATUS MAY HINDER THICK SURFACE FOG. SO DID NOT
INCLUDE THICK FOG IN WEATHER GRIDS AT THIS DISTANCE.
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...REMOVED POPS ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH THE SURFACE DEW POINT WILL LOWER.
HAVE 60 TO 65 DEW POINTS FORECAST NOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROF EXPECTED TO BE LIFTING NORTHEAST IN
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
STILL QUESTIONABLE ABOUT THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...SO NO LIKELY POPS. WAS SLOWER TRYING TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.
OVERALL THOUGH...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BE BUILDING FOR THOSE LAST FEW
DAYS OF JUNE. AS A RESULT...WENT A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WPC
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIELD OF CU NOTED ON THIS AFTERNOONS SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE. DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE A FEW UPDRAFTS TO BREAK THE CAP TO ALLOW FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOME BL DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
ALONG RIVERS AND IN VALLEYS. EXPECT COVERAGE AND DENSITY OF FOG TO
BE DOWN FROM PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS DUE TO INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
GRADIENT FLOW. CAN NOT RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT ENTIRELY THOUGH.
INCREASING MOISTURE BY 12Z TIME FRAME WITH FRONT INCHING CLOSER FROM
THE WEST WILL HELP LEAD TO AN UPSWING IN CONVECTION TOWARD END OF
PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
NEED PREVAILING OR TEMPO IN THE TAF.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH STRATUS/FOG AT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR SITES RECEIVING RAIN.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/KTB
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...KMC/KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
152 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DECENT FIELD OF CUMULUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CLOUDS EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CAPPED
SO FAR...BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH UPDRAFT STRENGTH TO KICK OFF A
FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. KEEPING ISOLD
ACTIVITY GOING FOR NOW...AND WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF
ISOLD POPS INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST RUC HINTS AT A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AT THE MID LEVELS OVER NORTHERN WV WHICH STILL MAY ACT AS A
TRIGGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AS QUASI STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES
SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL KY. CONTINUED TREND OF RAMPING UP
POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS...AND A VIGOROUS LEAD SHORT WAVE AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WILL ACT TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
AGREE PRETTY WELL ON THE TIMING OF THE LEAD WAVE AND GOOD PROSPECTS
FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S...AND IT
WILL REMAIN QUITE HUMID. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO DROP BELOW 70.
AS FAR AS THE FRONT IS CONCERNED...MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE
FRONT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO ACTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE...AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE WESTERLY OR
NORTHWESTERLY. THE GFS AND CMC MODELS MANAGE TO DRIVE THE FRONT EAST
OF THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NAM AND EURO MODELS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING THE FRONT AS IT MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IT
WILL...IN ANY CASE...LAG BEHIND THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WHICH DEPARTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE MUCH OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS DEPARTING WITH
THE SHORT WAVE...AND WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT OR
DISSIPATES...THERE WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...ENOUGH DRIER AIR ALOFT FINALLY MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY AND
MUCH OF FRIDAY TO MAKE MOST OF THE AREA RAIN FREE. WHETHER THE FRONT
MAKES IT OR NOT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
FOR HIGHS..WITH TEMPS STILL REACHING INTO THE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT TYPICAL LATE-JUNE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY WARM AND MUGGY DAYS WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM EVERY DAY. HIGHER CHANCES OF
PRECIP ARE CENTERED ON TWO DISTURBANCES...ONE ON FRIDAY AND THE
OTHER NEAR WEEKEND/S END INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MON. AFOREMENTIONED
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL...WITH NO REAL HEAT WAVES OR COOL
PERIODS FORESEEN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIELD OF CU NOTED ON THIS AFTERNOONS SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE. DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE A FEW UPDRAFTS TO BREAK THE CAP TO ALLOW FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOME BL DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
ALONG RIVERS AND IN VALLEYS. EXPECT COVERAGE AND DENSITY OF FOG TO
BE DOWN FROM PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS DUE TO INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
GRADIENT FLOW. CAN NOT RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT ENTIRELY THOUGH. INCREASING
MOISTURE BY 12Z TIME FRAME WITH FRONT INCHING CLOSER FROM THE WEST
WILL HELP LEAD TO AN UPSWING IN CONVECTION TOWARD END OF PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
NEED PREVAILING OR TEMPO IN THE TAF.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN IN THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WITH STRATUS/FOG AT
NIGHT FOR SITES RECEIVING RAIN.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...KMC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
939 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA AND WAS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST OHIO. SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
MICHIGAN WITH TIME.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE THREAT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASING DEW POINTS WERE TAKING
PLACE OVER THE WEST ALONG WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. CAPE IS ALSO
INCREASING AS WELL. CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM SO WILL
LEAVE A MENTION OF AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST AND THEN PROGRESS IT EAST AS THE
AFTERNOON OCCURS.
SO FAR...TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE SO NO ADJUSTMENTS THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT ANY TIME. THE 00Z RUN
OF THE MODELS INDICATED THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. I WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS IS TRYING TO SHOW A WAVE DEVELOP ON THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. THIS
SCENARIO MAY BE OVER DONE AND I AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE NAM
SOLUTION. THE MODELS INDICATE A SECONDARY TROF WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SO I WILL HOLD ON TO A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOLLOWED WPC THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHICH FAVORS CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF. GENERALLY AM EXPECTING AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA OR TO
THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE. WITH CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH WILL MOVE EAST REACHING NEAR A
TOL-MFD-CMH LINE BY 00Z. NO CHANGES IN EXPECTATIONS IN THAT WITH
THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO TONIGHT WITH MORE MOISTURE IN THE
AREA TOOK VISIBILITIES DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR IN HAZE/FOG WITH SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THRU FRI IN SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS POSSIBLE MORNING FOG/MIST.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE LAKES WILL SUPPORT A SOUTHEAST
FLOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE ONTO THE WESTERN BASIN THIS EVENING AND BISECT THE LAKE TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWEST AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
TUESDAY NIGHT...DROPPING SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY...MOVING EAST ON FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SO AM EXPECTING TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
934 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE SLOWLY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FEW SHOWERS EXITING THE FORECAST AREA UP INTO THE WEST VIRGINIA
NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. A QUASI STATIONARY WARM FRONT SITS TO
OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND OH. ATMOSPHERE IS CURRENTLY WEAKLY
UNSTABLE...AND WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER THEN CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOW TO START THE PERIOD. EXPECT TERRAIN TO
BE MAIN DRIVER AS TO WHERE WE SEE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND
CURRENT HRRR RUNS SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS TREND. MORE MOISTURE DUE TO
ARRIVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH PW VALUES INCREASING
TO ABOUT 1.7 INCHES BY TUESDAY MORNING. SLIGHT RAMP UP IN
POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TO START...THEN
PROGRESSING IN FROM THE WEST AS FRONT MAKES CLOSER APPROACH LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD FORECAST TREND AND THIS COVERED IN CURRENT PACKAGE. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS...AND A VIGOROUS LEAD SHORT WAVE AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WILL ACT TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS
AGREE PRETTY WELL ON THE TIMING OF THE LEAD WAVE AND GOOD PROSPECTS
FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS...BUT SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S...AND IT
WILL REMAIN QUITE HUMID. TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARM WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO DROP BELOW 70.
AS FAR AS THE FRONT IS CONCERNED...MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER THE
FRONT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO ACTUALLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE...AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE WESTERLY OR
NORTHWESTERLY. THE GFS AND CMC MODELS MANAGE TO DRIVE THE FRONT EAST
OF THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NAM AND EURO MODELS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING THE FRONT AS IT MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. IT
WILL...IN ANY CASE...LAG BEHIND THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WHICH DEPARTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE MUCH OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS DEPARTING WITH
THE SHORT WAVE...AND WHETHER THE FRONT MAKES IT OR
DISSIPATES...THERE WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY.
THEREAFTER...ENOUGH DRIER AIR ALOFT FINALLY MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY AND
MUCH OF FRIDAY TO MAKE MOST OF THE AREA RAIN FREE. WHETHER THE FRONT
MAKES IT OR NOT...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
FOR HIGHS..WITH TEMPS STILL REACHING INTO THE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT TYPICAL LATE-JUNE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY WARM AND MUGGY DAYS WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM EVERY DAY. HIGHER CHANCES OF
PRECIP ARE CENTERED ON TWO DISTURBANCES...ONE ON FRIDAY AND THE
OTHER NEAR WEEKEND/S END INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MON. AFOREMENTIONED
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL...WITH NO REAL HEAT WAVES OR COOL
PERIODS FORESEEN.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WILL BE GETTING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY...BUT NONE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT TSRA IN THE
PREVAILING. HAVE ALSO TRIED TO USE THE VCTS/CB SPARINGLY AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT 4-5KFT CU DECK FORMING TODAY...WITH
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION BEGINNING EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON THAN
LOWLAND AREAS...WHERE FORMATION IS EXPECTED TO BE AFTER 20Z. BY
NOT GOING WITH ANY PREVAILING TSRA...AN AMD OR TOW MAY BE NEEDED
AS CONVECTION BEGINS TO SHOW ITS HAND.
FOG TONIGHT IS IN QUESTION DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE KEPT
IT MODEST WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
NEED PREVAILING OR TEMPO IN THE TAF.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND
STRATUS/FOG AT NIGHT FOR SITES RECEIVING RAIN.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
615 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND
POSSIBLY INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MORE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...MOSTLY ENDING A LITTLE AFTER 00Z. PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LARGE MCS ONGOING FROM TX PANHANDLE THROUGH CENTRAL OK WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. WHILE
THE EXACT EVOLUTION REMAINS TO BE SEEN...LATEST RAP DATA DEPICT A
WELL DEVELOPED MCV WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY
WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LARGER SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO EITHER MAINTAIN ONGOING CONVECTION AND/OR AID IN
REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON THUS HIGH PRECIP CHANCES
AREAWIDE TODAY. THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS ANY OVERNIGHT PRECIP TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BEYOND TONIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE PROFILES REMAIN MOIST AND LARGELY UNCAPPED. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS OF SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH MID
WEEK. TEMPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION TOWARD MORE
DOMINANT UPPER RIDGING BY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A
TREND TOWARD LESSER PRECIP COVERAGE AND WARMER TEMPS.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
344 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
LARGE MCS ONGOING FROM TX PANHANDLE THROUGH CENTRAL OK WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. WHILE
THE EXACT EVOLUTION REMAINS TO BE SEEN...LATEST RAP DATA DEPICT A
WELL DEVELOPED MCV WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY
WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LARGER SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO EITHER MAINTAIN ONGOING CONVECTION AND/OR AID IN
REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON THUS HIGH PRECIP CHANCES
AREAWIDE TODAY. THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS ANY OVERNIGHT PRECIP TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BEYOND TONIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS
THE REGION WHILE PROFILES REMAIN MOIST AND LARGELY UNCAPPED. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS OF SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH MID
WEEK. TEMPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION TOWARD MORE
DOMINANT UPPER RIDGING BY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A
TREND TOWARD LESSER PRECIP COVERAGE AND WARMER TEMPS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 84 67 87 70 / 80 40 20 20
FSM 84 69 86 69 / 70 60 30 20
MLC 84 68 85 69 / 80 60 40 30
BVO 83 65 87 67 / 80 30 10 10
FYV 80 65 83 66 / 60 60 20 20
BYV 81 65 83 66 / 70 60 20 20
MKO 83 67 86 68 / 70 50 30 20
MIO 83 66 86 68 / 70 40 10 10
F10 83 67 86 69 / 80 50 30 20
HHW 85 70 86 70 / 90 60 40 40
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
749 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL REBUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
IMPLYING A VERY WARM AND SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION FLARED UP DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENIES IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WANING AS THE SUN BEGINS
TO GET LOWER IN THE SKY...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE SHOW MORE PROMISE OF HOLDING TOGETHER AS THEY
TAKE AIM AT THE NWRN PART OF MY FCST AREA WHERE THERE IS A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH.
THE AIRMASS IS VERY HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. ENSEMBLE PWATS ARE PROJECTED IN 1-3 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL
RANGE...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.
HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE WEE HOURS AS AT LEAST TWO
WAVES OF CONVECTION ARE MADE TO SWING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
WESTERN PA. WHILE HRRR DETAILS ARE ALWAYS SUSPECT...I LIKE THE
IDEA OF SHOWERS REMAINING A THREAT EVEN AFTER DARK GIVEN THE
EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS THAT CONTINUES TO FEED NORTH INTO THE
REGION.
WPC HAS MUCH OF THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. /WITH A POTENT EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE LIFTING NE TWD THE REGION/ IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO
RIDGING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SLOW PROGRESS OF
THE SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT.
LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WED THAN WHAT WILL OCCUR
TODAY.
LATEST SREF AND GEFS FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.5 TO 2
INCHES STRETCHING NWD INTO EASTERN CANADA AHEAD OF NRN STREAM TROF
AXIS. PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES WILL CROSS PA DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SHRA AND TSRA /70
PERCENT OR GREATER/. RAIN FROM THE POTENTIALLY TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY AND WPC HAS ABOUT
THE NW HALF OF PA IN SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK NOTES THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED SVR TSRA/WIND
GUSTS ACROSS PENN AND PTS TO THE NORTH WHERE BETTER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT AND COMBINE WITH POCKETS OF MDTLY HIGH CAPE.
THIS SVR POTENTIAL IS MENTIONED IN HWO.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL SHIFT INTO THE ERN
1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA FROM WEDNESDAY EVE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH AXIS OF 1.5-2.0 INCH PWATS. THIS DEEP
MSTR PLUME WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC LOW/SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL SYSTEM SHIFTING EWD FROM THE LWR GRT LKS ACRS THE THE NRN
MID ATLC STATES INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. PERSISTENT LIFT ASSOC WITH
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION COMBINED WITH MEAN SWLY FLOW ORIENTED MOSTLY PARALLEL TO
THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO TRAINING CELLS WITH
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES.
ALTHOUGH POPS WILL BE TRENDING MUCH LOWER INTO THURSDAY AS PWATS
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AS THE LAST
OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRES
ARRIVES ON FRI WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A LARGELY DRY END TO THE WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD THROUGH THE END OF JUNE AND INTO EARLY JULY...THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK/JET STREAM FOR NORTHERN HEMISPHERE MIGRATORY
SYSTEMS REMAINS ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...WITH A DECIDEDLY
SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER 48...AS STRONG
RIDGING OVER THE SUBTROPICS BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN
AND SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA
HIGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PWS IN TIME WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS SAT-TUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND UPWARD AND
GENERALLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSRA WITH BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPACT ROUGHLY THE NWRN HALF OF PENN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION /AND LOCALLY REDUCED CIGS AND
VSBYS/ WILL PROGRESS SE OF A KELM TO KUNV AND KAOO LINE AFTER 20Z.
SERN PENN TAF SITES /KMDT...KLNS AND KTHV/ SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...BEFORE MVFR VSBYS IN FOG/HAZE...AND
LOCALIZED IFR CIGS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
CONCERN FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN
INCREASES BY WED...AS PWAT VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES. ALSO
SOME CHC FOR STRONG /AND EVEN A FEW SEVERE/ STORMS...BUT CLOUD
COVER MAY LIMIT THIS. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT FRONT MAY NOT CLEAR THE
AREA UNTIL THU.
AGAIN...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAIN
AT TIMES...UNTIL COLD FRONT MOVES SE OF THE AREA...GIVEN ABNORMAL
DEEP SW FLOW FROM THE GULF STATES AND VERY HIGH PWATS.
OUTLOOK...
WED...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA. LOCAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
THU-FRI...MAINLY VFR. CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SAT...LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ004>006-
010-011.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1059 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GOOD FIELD OF CUMULUS FRACTUS/HUMULUS THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND PATCHY FOG LIFTED. AS THIS TRIES TO BURN OFF
AND THIN...SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO WEST WILL DRIFT OVER THE REGION.
STILL MOSTLY SUNNY IN SOUTH IN EASTERN AREAS THOUGH SATELLITE DOES
IMPLY THIN CIRRUS OVER MORE NORTHERN AREAS.
BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE CONVECTION IN WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE FRONT TO OUR WEST SLOWING DOWN. 13Z RAP SHOWS WEAKER AND
MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION.
OVERNIGHT BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. BUT ONLY CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THEME FOR TUESDAY SEEMS SLOWER FRONT AND MOISTURE SURGE INTO PA...09Z
SREF LESS ROBUST WITH QPF/POPS IN WESTERN PA AND MORE OPTIMISTIC
OF MOSTLY RAIN FREE DAY IN SOUTHEASTERN PA. COULD BE A MORE CLOUDY
DAY. THIS IS DUE TO SLOWER PROGRESSION OF FRONT AND PW PLUME TO
OUR WEST.
THIS SLOWER...DRIER THEME IS RELATED TO STRONG AND SLOW TO ERODE
SURFACE RIDGE AND 500 HPA RIDGE. HARD FOR FRONTS TO PUSH INTO
RIDGES THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE SREF SHOWS LIKELY POPS AS DOES FORECAST IN WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN AREAS TUESDAY. BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE IN SOUTHEAST.
MODELS CONTINUE TO WANT TO DEFER HIGHER RAINFALL PROBS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE SHOULD SLOWLY YIELD.
UNLESS YOUR BAILING HAY THIS WEEK...WE NEED RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS THE GROWING RIDGE LATER THIS WEEK AND NEXT COULD PUT US INTO A
MORE AIR MASS FORCED CONVECTIVE REGIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MID WEST IS FORECAST TO
BE RATHER WAVY AND COMPLEX...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO LINGER
OVER THE REGION LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A NEW WAVE FORMING OVER THE STATE
WEDNESDAY...AT LEAST SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF KEEPING HIGH POPS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT ALSO RAISING THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FOCUSING ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
DRIER AIR FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAKE A RETURN FOR THURSDAY-
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA JUST NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE COOL PUSH DOESN`T LOOK TERRIBLY ROBUST SO
HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EVENTS FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME WITH THE EXPECTED HANGING AROUND OF THE BOUNDARY THAT
IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS CREATES QUITE A BIT OF
PRECIP FOCUSED ON THE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE. THE ECMWF IS LESS EXCITED ABOUT
THIS...KEEPING THE BOUNDARY WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH. I DIDN`T
BITE TOO HARD ON THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GFS/GEFS...KEEPING JUST
SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE NEXT WEEKEND.
WORTH NOTING...LAST NIGHT THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE WANTED TO
REALLY PUMP UP HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE ECMWF HAS DONE A TOTAL FLIP-FLOP ON THIS NOW BRINGING AN UPPER
LOW SLOWLY DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO OFF NJ BY MONDAY...WITH
UPPER HEIGHTS NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS WAS ADVERTISED. THE GEFS SHOWS
MORE RIDGING...BUT SIMILARLY SEEMS TO WANT TO BACK OFF THE IDEA OF
A BIG SURGE IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAD FOG FOR A SHORT TIME AT UNIV. NOW AT LNS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY LOOKING A DRY DAY TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
ENJOY...AS AT LEAST THE LATER PART OF TUESDAY INTO WED...WILL
FEATURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS A SW FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR
WORKS IN...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FOR LATE WED. THERE WAS A FEW
SHOWERS YESTERDAY AFT...GIVEN STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL
BE THE CASE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BFD AND JST BEFORE 12Z TUE AM...BUT
STILL THINK THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY IN MOST
LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-WED...SHRA/TSRA. LOCAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
THU-FRI...VFR. PERHAPS A SHOWER OR STORM LATE FRI.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
718 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OTHER THAN FOR PATCHY FOG...THE DAY WILL DAWN BRIGHT WITH JUST
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS BLEEDING ACROSS FROM DYING CONVECTION OVER
THE GR LAKES.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ALL THE
WAY TO THE CAROLINAS...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE RETURN SIDE WILL
BRING STEADILY HIGHER DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS WE HEAT UP TODAY...WE WILL SEE A
STEADY EROSION OF THE STABILITY WITH THE RAP INDICATING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7C/KM BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER CAPE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF POPPING A SHOWER OR STORM
BEING OVER MY WESTERN ZONES. MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT DEEPER
THERE...BUT EVEN SO A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE HARD
TO BREAK SO ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD.
HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO BE PRETTY WELL CLUSTERED FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S...STARTING TO EDGE ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE.
THE PROXIMITY OF THE WAVY FRONT ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING OVER MY
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT
IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
CONVECTION THE DEEPER INTO THE DAY WE GET. SREF/GEFS BOTH BRING A
SURGE OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WITH CAPES EXPECTED EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 1000J OVER A WIDE AREA. SPC HAS PLACED US IN A SEE TEXT
AREA MENTIONING...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MID WEST IS FORECAST TO
BE RATHER WAVY AND COMPLEX...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO LINGER
OVER THE REGION LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A NEW WAVE FORMING OVER THE STATE
WEDNESDAY...AT LEAST SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF KEEPING HIGH POPS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT ALSO RAISING THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FOCUSING ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
DRIER AIR FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAKE A RETURN FOR THURSDAY-
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA JUST NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE COOL PUSH DOESN`T LOOK TERRIBLY ROBUST SO
HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EVENTS FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME WITH THE EXPECTED HANGING AROUND OF THE BOUNDARY THAT
IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS CREATES QUITE A BIT OF
PRECIP FOCUSED ON THE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE. THE ECMWF IS LESS EXCITED ABOUT
THIS...KEEPING THE BOUNDARY WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH. I DIDN`T
BITE TOO HARD ON THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GFS/GEFS...KEEPING JUST
SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE NEXT WEEKEND.
WORTH NOTING...LAST NIGHT THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE WANTED TO
REALLY PUMP UP HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE ECMWF HAS DONE A TOTAL FLIP-FLOP ON THIS NOW BRINGING AN UPPER
LOW SLOWLY DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO OFF NJ BY MONDAY...WITH
UPPER HEIGHTS NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS WAS ADVERTISED. THE GEFS SHOWS
MORE RIDGING...BUT SIMILARLY SEEMS TO WANT TO BACK OFF THE IDEA OF
A BIG SURGE IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAD FOG FOR A SHORT TIME AT UNV. NOW AT LNS.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY LOOKING A DRY DAY TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
ENJOY...AS AT LEAST THE LATER PART OF TUESDAY INTO WED...WILL
FEATURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS A SW FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR
WORKS IN...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FOR LATE WED. THERE WAS A FEW
SHOWERS YESTERDAY AFT...GIVEN STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL
BE THE CASE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BFD AND JST BEFORE 12Z TUE AM...BUT
STILL THINK THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY IN MOST
LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-WED...SHRA/TSRA. LOCAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
THU-FRI...VFR. PERHAPS A SHOWER OR STORM LATE FRI.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
551 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OTHER THAN FOR PATCHY FOG...THE DAY WILL DAWN BRIGHT WITH JUST
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS BLEEDING ACROSS FROM DYING CONVECTION OVER
THE GR LAKES.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ALL THE
WAY TO THE CAROLINAS...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE RETURN SIDE WILL
BRING STEADILY HIGHER DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS WE HEAT UP TODAY...WE WILL SEE A
STEADY EROSION OF THE STABILITY WITH THE RAP INDICATING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7C/KM BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER CAPE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF POPPING A SHOWER OR STORM
BEING OVER MY WESTERN ZONES. MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT DEEPER
THERE...BUT EVEN SO A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE HARD
TO BREAK SO ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD.
HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO BE PRETTY WELL CLUSTERED FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S...STARTING TO EDGE ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE.
THE PROXIMITY OF THE WAVY FRONT ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING OVER MY
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT
IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
CONVECTION THE DEEPER INTO THE DAY WE GET. SREF/GEFS BOTH BRING A
SURGE OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WITH CAPES EXPECTED EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 1000J OVER A WIDE AREA. SPC HAS PLACED US IN A SEE TEXT
AREA MENTIONING...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MID WEST IS FORECAST TO
BE RATHER WAVY AND COMPLEX...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO LINGER
OVER THE REGION LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A NEW WAVE FORMING OVER THE STATE
WEDNESDAY...AT LEAST SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF KEEPING HIGH POPS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT ALSO RAISING THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FOCUSING ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
DRIER AIR FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAKE A RETURN FOR THURSDAY-
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA JUST NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE COOL PUSH DOESN`T LOOK TERRIBLY ROBUST SO
HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EVENTS FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME WITH THE EXPECTED HANGING AROUND OF THE BOUNDARY THAT
IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS CREATES QUITE A BIT OF
PRECIP FOCUSED ON THE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE. THE ECMWF IS LESS EXCITED ABOUT
THIS...KEEPING THE BOUNDARY WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH. I DIDN`T
BITE TOO HARD ON THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GFS/GEFS...KEEPING JUST
SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE NEXT WEEKEND.
WORTH NOTING...LAST NIGHT THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE WANTED TO
REALLY PUMP UP HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE ECMWF HAS DONE A TOTAL FLIP-FLOP ON THIS NOW BRINGING AN UPPER
LOW SLOWLY DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO OFF NJ BY MONDAY...WITH
UPPER HEIGHTS NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS WAS ADVERTISED. THE GEFS SHOWS
MORE RIDGING...BUT SIMILARLY SEEMS TO WANT TO BACK OFF THE IDEA OF
A BIG SURGE IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH FOG SO FAR. MAY SEE A LITTLE AS THE SUN HEATS
THINGS UP.
MAINLY LOOKING A DRY DAY TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. ENJOY...AS AT
LEAST THE LATER PART OF TUESDAY INTO WED...WILL FEATURE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS A SW FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR WORKS
IN...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FOR LATE WED. THERE WAS A FEW SHOWERS
YESTERDAY AFT...GIVEN STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL BE THE
CASE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BFD BEFORE 06Z TUE AM...BUT STILL
THINK THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY IN MOST
LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-WED...SHRA/TSRA. LOCAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
THU-FRI...VFR. PERHAPS A SHOWER OR STORM LATE FRI.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
524 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OTHER THAN FOR PATCHY FOG...THE DAY WILL DAWN BRIGHT WITH JUST
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS BLEEDING ACROSS FROM DYING CONVECTION OVER
THE GR LAKES.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ALL THE
WAY TO THE CAROLINAS...SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE RETURN SIDE WILL
BRING STEADILY HIGHER DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS WE HEAT UP TODAY...WE WILL SEE A
STEADY EROSION OF THE STABILITY WITH THE RAP INDICATING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7C/KM BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER CAPE IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF POPPING A SHOWER OR STORM
BEING OVER MY WESTERN ZONES. MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT DEEPER
THERE...BUT EVEN SO A FAIRLY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE HARD
TO BREAK SO ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD.
HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO BE PRETTY WELL CLUSTERED FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S...STARTING TO EDGE ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE.
THE PROXIMITY OF THE WAVY FRONT ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING OVER MY
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT
IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
TUESDAY WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTION
THE DEEPER INTO THE DAY WE GET. SREF/GEFS BOTH BRING A SURGE OF
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WITH CAPES EXPECTED EXPECTED TO EXCEED
1000J OVER A WIDE AREA. SPC HAS PLACED US IN A SEE TEXT AREA
MENTIONING...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MID WEST IS FORECAST TO
BE RATHER WAVY AND COMPLEX...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO LINGER
OVER THE REGION LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A NEW WAVE FORMING OVER THE STATE
WEDNESDAY...AT LEAST SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF KEEPING HIGH POPS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT ALSO RAISING THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS FOCUSING ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
DRIER AIR FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MAKE A RETURN FOR THURSDAY-
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA JUST NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE COOL PUSH DOESN`T LOOK TERRIBLY ROBUST SO
HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON EVENTS FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME WITH THE EXPECTED HANGING AROUND OF THE BOUNDARY THAT
IS EXPECTED TO PASS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS CREATES QUITE A BIT OF
PRECIP FOCUSED ON THE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE. THE ECMWF IS LESS EXCITED ABOUT
THIS...KEEPING THE BOUNDARY WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH. I DIDN`T
BITE TOO HARD ON THE MORE PESSIMISTIC GFS/GEFS...KEEPING JUST
SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE NEXT WEEKEND.
WORTH NOTING...LAST NIGHT THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE WANTED TO
REALLY PUMP UP HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN US FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE ECMWF HAS DONE A TOTAL FLIP-FLOP ON THIS NOW BRINGING AN UPPER
LOW SLOWLY DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO OFF NJ BY MONDAY...WITH
UPPER HEIGHTS NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS WAS ADVERTISED. THE GEFS SHOWS
MORE RIDGING...BUT SIMILARLY SEEMS TO WANT TO BACK OFF THE IDEA OF
A BIG SURGE IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME CLDS FROM NEAR UNV...SE INTO THE MDT AREA. WAS A FEW
DROPS OF RAIN AT MDT JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
ANYWAY...EXPECT SOME FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD
AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL REMAIN POSS THROUGH MID
EVE...MAINLY IN THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
VFR PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS FROM THE
SOUTH. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSS A TSTM ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF LATER
MON AFT MAY BRING VERY LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-WED...SHRA/TSRA. LOCAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
THU...VFR.
FRI...VFR TO MVFR WITH SCT AFTN -TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
102 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.DISCUSSION...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND EMBEDDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF METRO MOVING UP AHEAD OUT A LINE
OF SHOWERS CREATED UPON NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW NOW
PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN TERMINAL AIR SPACE OF KCLL AND KUTS.
SHORT TERM FORECAST CALLS FOR VCSH WITH TEMPO THUNDER...IFR CONDITIONS
WITHIN HEAVIEST RAIN OR STORM CELLS. CURRENTLY...BULK OF LIGHTNING
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHERN FORT BEND AND WESTERN HARRIS COUNTIES.
LEAVING VCSH IN THROUGH EARLY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. MODELS HAVE BEEN OF NO
GUIDANCE SO CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS OF
NOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT...THE
ONLY LULL WILL BE TONIGHT (DUE TO THE RECENT WORK OVER AND LACK OF
HEATING) WITH AN ANTICIPATED RETURN OF SHOWER/ISOL THUNDER ACTIVITY
TOMORROW MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS TODAY.
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE. HAVE RAISED
POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE NW TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. RAP 13
PERFORMING WELL AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD IT`S SOLUTION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OF INTEREST...THE RAP BRINGS A STRONG S/WV
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AND BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE
NAM 12 SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS HEADING SOUTH AND CONVECTION IS
GETTING CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
STILL SUGGESTS WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM BUT THE RAP 13 AND TEXAS
TECH 3 KM BECOMING MORE BULLISH WITH POPS OVER THE NW THIRD OF
THE CWA. RAISED POPS TO CHANCE OVER THE NW ZONES. 12Z CRP SOUNDING
HAS A PW VALUE OF 2.06 INCHES WITH SOME DRY AIR AT 700 MB. THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 80S WHICH IS MORE THAN REACHABLE.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL WANE THIS AFTN AS
SOME OF THE DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES TO THE SURFACE. WILL RE-EVALUATE
THAT TREND AFTER 17Z. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
LATEST RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW BAND OF STORMS SITUATED OVER NORTH
TEXAS...NEAR THE DFW METROPLEX. LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST AROUND 45 MPH. INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWING WARMING CLOUD
TOPS AND OVERALL WEAKENING OF THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. AVAILABLE
MESO MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS SYSTEM VERY WELL...BUT THESE
ALSO SHOW A DISSIPATION OF THE LINE GOING FORWARD. TAFS ARE
WRITTEN WITH THE IDEA THAT THIS DISSIPATING TREND WILL
CONTINUE...BUT NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN FAIRLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM. FOR THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH A VCTS
FOR CLL...UTS AND CXO BASED ON TIMING OF CURRENT LINE BUT BASED ON
LOW PROBABILITY IT WILL SURVIVE AS A LINE. FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...EVEN LESS LIKELY LINE WILL MAKE IT...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
NO MENTION OF PRECIP THERE IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
DECREASE IN CONVECTION TONIGHT...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY MVFR LATE
TONIGHT FOR IAH ON NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOW MATURE SQUALL LINE
PUSHING THROUGH OK/TX AND RED RIVER REGION. CLOSER TO HOUSTON
MAINLY OBSERVING SPOTTY SHOWERS BUT NOT MUCH PRECIP HITTING THE
GROUND. SQUALL LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA
THIS MORNING WITH STRONG COLD POOL BEHIND IT. RAPID REFRESH AND
WRF RUNS SHOW THE SQUALL LINE BREAKING UP BEFORE REACHING COLLEGE
STATION. KEPT THE FORECAST IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING FOR THE
MORNING BUT CONCERNED LINE COULD PUSH FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED
SINCE THERE IS LITTLE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR TO IMPEDE ITS
PROGRESS. FORECAST HOLDS WITH 20 POPS AS STILL POSSIBLE FOR ISO
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW TROUGHING OVER
MUCH OF TX. UPPER RIDGE IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND LIKELY SPLIT
BETWEEN NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE C GULF. GLOBAL MODELS ALL SUPPORT
TROUGHING OVER TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO SHOW A
SURGE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE LATE TUE INTO WED. GIVEN PERCIP WATER
VALUES OF NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR WED/THUR
DECIDED TO GO WITH 50/60 POPS EACH OF THOSE DAYS. TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF 1-2 INCH AN HOUR RAINRATES IN
STRONGER STORMS SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A CONCERN. THIS COULD
RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING AND RAPID INCREASES IN BAYOUS. AREAWIDE
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE TRICK TO THE FORECAST WILL BE WHERE
THE ISOLATED 3 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SET UP WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FLOODING IMPACTS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOES TRY TO STRENGTHEN DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE MORE ROBUST WITH THE RIDGE SUNDAY INTO NEXT
MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A SHEAR AXIS OVER THE NW GULF.
RIGHT NOW WILL STILL CARRY SOME LOWER POPS. THINK FRI/SAT WILL BE
DRIER BUT 40 POPS STILL DECENT CHANCES. WILL ALSO KEEP 20 POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR SUN/MON AS THERE STILL SHOULD BE PLENTY OF DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND RIDGING STRENGTH WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY
UNKNOWN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE COMING WEEK MAYBE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THIS MEANS UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. STILL COULD GET SOME
RAIN COOLED LOW 70S OR UPPER 60S BUT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THOSE
OCCURRENCES SINCE IT WILL DEPEND ON THE CONVECTION. THE NICE
THING ABOUT THIS FORECAST IS THAT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95F
THROUGH ALMOST THE END OF JUNE. CLIMATE FACTOID...CLL/IAH/HOU HAVE
YET TO REACH 95F OR HIGHER THIS YEAR FOR A MAX TEMP.
39
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH SUSTAINED 10 METER WINDS GENERALLY ONSHORE AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY. GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT
MID TO LATE WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WINDS A
POSSIBILITY BY WED OR THU. WITH PERSISTENT SE FLOW AND LONG FETCH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH 6 TO
9 FOOT SEAS A GOOD BET BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 46
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 90 74 88 74 / 30 40 20 60 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 90 75 88 75 / 20 40 20 60 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 88 80 87 80 / 20 30 40 50 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1227 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED SOUTHEAST OF A MCKINNEY /KTKI/ TO
BRECKENRIDGE /KBKD/ LINE AT 17Z WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
AND SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND
18Z...SO HAVE STARTED OFF THE WINDS AS NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS.
WINDS SHOULD COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
BEFORE SUNSET /01Z/.
SOME BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS MAY MOVE INTO THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE PLACED A TEMPO BKN025 IN FOR THE 18-20Z
PERIOD. WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT AND A WET GROUND...SOME LIGHT
FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK. THUS HAVE PLACED 5SM BR IN THE
METROPLEX TAFS FOR THE 12-15Z PERIOD. THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADDED
TO WACO/S TAF WITH THE 21Z UPDATE.
SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD POP UP LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT THE CHANCES AT THE INDIVIDUAL
TAF SITES IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. LIKEWISE THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY BUT THE CHANCES
AT THE INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
58
&&
.UPDATE...
THIS MORNINGS MCS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
OF THE CWA. THE MOVEMENT OF THE REMAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS IS TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN ON THE
KGRK RADAR PUSHING AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY NOT BE A
FACTOR FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN OUR CWA WITH THE BOUNDARY
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE MEAN STEERING FLOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...ANOTHER BOUNDARY/FRONT CAN BE SEEN ON THE
KFWS RADAR AND SURFACE OBS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...
MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE WINDS AT
BOWIE HAVE COME AROUND TO THE NORTH AND OTHER SITES ALONG THE RED
RIVER HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST. BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP ARE
DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...THE AFTERNOON FORECAST IS STILL MUDDLED BY THIS
MORNING/S MCS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ARE
COOL IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. ANALYSIS OF AMDAR SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE RAPIDLY WARMED
IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE. A
RECENT AMDAR SOUNDING FROM DFW AT 1555Z SHOWS TEMPERATURES AT 900
MB HAVE WARMED 9 DEGREES CELSIUS SINCE THE RAIN STARTED. IN
ADDITION...THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAVE SIGNFICANTLY
DRIED UP TO ABOUT 600 MB. IN ORDER TO BREAK THE CAP THAT HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE
TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN
TODAY. WHAT WE WILL LIKELY SEE IS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED
CONVECTION DEVELOP WITH HELP FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. IF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ABLE TO SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER TIME /AND THUS EFFECTIVELY
COOL THE TEMPERATURES AROUND 900-800 MB/...IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD
HAVE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IN PARTICULAR
AROUND ANY BOUNDARIES OR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. IN ANTICIPATION OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...TAILORED POPS TO 30 PERCENT IN THE EAST AND 40
PERCENT IN THE WEST. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION MAY OCCUR WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY THINNING OUT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST
AND INSTABILITY WILL THUS BE THE HIGHEST IN THE AREA. WITH ANY
STORMS TODAY...GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. STORM MOTION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE FASTER
THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS WHICH SHOULD HELP MITIGATE ANY FLASH FLOOD
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN...WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS.
82/JLD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST EARLY THIS MORNING WAS A
SQUALL LINE LOCATED FROM NORMAN TO WICHITA FALLS TO LUBBOCK AS OF
4 AM CDT. THIS SQUALL LINE WAS A BIT WEAKER THAN IT WAS AROUND
MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER ITS RADAR REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURE CONTINUED TO
SHOW A WELL ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS WITH FAIRLY UPRIGHT UPDRAFTS AND
STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
THIS STRUCTURE LIKELY MEANS THAT THIS SQUALL LINE WILL NOT FALL
APART OR SLOW DOWN MUCH AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE THAT WILL
LIKELY REACH OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA FIRST WAS STILL SEVERE WARNED BY
WFO OUN AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION. KFDR RADAR OBSERVED A
50-54 KT INBOUND VELOCITY AT AROUND 100 FT AGL WITHIN THIS
WARNING. THE SQUALL LINE MAY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN A BIT AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS...BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
CERTAINLY BE A POSSIBILITY WITHIN THIS LINE THIS MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...THE SQUALL LINE WAS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE DFW
METROPLEX FROM APPROXIMATELY 6 AM TO 8 AM. THIS TIMING MAY CHANGE
AS INTENSITY CHANGES WITHIN THE LINE OF STORMS...HOWEVER IMPACTS
TO THE MORNING RUSH HOUR COMMUTE LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
ASIDE FROM STRONG WIND GUSTS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS CONTINGENT UPON THE
SPEED OF THE STORMS AND THE SQUALL LINE IN GENERAL THIS MORNING.
THE TEXAS TECH WRF INDICATES THAT THE SQUALL LINE...OR ITS
REMNANTS...WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 12 TO 18Z. IF
THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS LESS LIKELY BECAUSE
STORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TOO QUICKLY. MANY OTHER
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE MEMBERS WEAKEN THE SQUALL LINE TO THE
POINT THAT IT DROPS A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY LATE THIS MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS...IT`S
ONLY GOING TO HAPPEN BECAUSE THE SQUALL LINE SLOWS DOWN
CONSIDERABLY FROM ITS CURRENT PACE. ANY ONGOING RAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING AS STORMS WILL SIMPLY BE MOVING SLOWER.
EITHER WAY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALONG THE SQUALL LINE BECAUSE MODELS INDICATE THAT PWATS
ONLY INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. WITH LITTLE AIRCRAFT ACTIVITY (FOR AMDAR SOUNDINGS)
OVERNIGHT...ITS DIFFICULT TO ESTABLISH IF THIS IS REALISTIC OR
NOT. HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE GOES SOUNDER OUTPUT...THERE IS A PLUME
OF 2 INCH (OBSERVED AS 50 MM) PWATS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE DFW
AREA...CONTINUING SOUTH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. HOW FAR NORTH OR EAST
THIS PLUME EXTENDS IS UNKNOWN BECAUSE THE SATELLITE CAN NOT SEE
THROUGH THICK UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THESE AREAS. THE FACT THAT 2
INCH PWATS ARE OBSERVED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF WHERE MODELS DEPICT 2
INCH PWATS THIS MORNING (GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35)
IS A GOOD SIGN THAT THE MODELS PROBABLY HAVE THIS RIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH A MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
WORDED FORECAST THIS MORNING...HIGHLIGHTING AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 AS HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE AT SEEING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. IN REALITY...WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE HOW THE
SQUALL LINE EVOLVES BECAUSE WHERE EVER THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY GOES...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL FOLLOW SUIT. THE IMPACTS WERE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LARGE SCALE
FLOODING...SO NO FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. WILL MONITOR STORMS AND HANDLE LOCALIZED FLOODING
TACTICALLY VIA WARNINGS...GRAPHICS AND SOCIAL MEDIA
DISSEMINATION.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...NEW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REALLY DEPEND ON
WHAT HAPPENS WITH OUR SQUALL LINE THIS MORNING. MANY MODELS SHOW A
GOOD QPF SIGNAL IN LINE WITH THE SQUALL LINE...BUT MOST
UNFORTUNATELY FAIL TO CARRY THE DYNAMICS OF THE SQUALL LINE INTO
THE MODEL MASS FIELDS. FOR INSTANCE...NOT ONE OPERATIONAL MODEL
BOTHERS TO BRING A WIND SHIFT LINE INTO THE CWA WITH THE SQUALL
LINE QPF BLOB THIS MORNING. THESE MODELS ALSO FAIL TO SUFFICIENTLY
STABILIZE/COOL THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE. THIS
PRESENTS A BIG FORECAST PROBLEM AS BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL
PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TEXAS TECH WRF AND THE 4 KM NAM BOTH AT LEAST INDICATED SOME
RESPONSE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...SO THESE MODELS WERE
WEIGHED MORE HEAVILY FOR THIS AFTERNOON`S THUNDERSTORM FORECAST.
AN 08Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A THETA-E DROP OF
AROUND 11 KELVIN BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE THIS MORNING. AS FAR AS
COLD POOLS GO BEHIND SQUALL LINES...THIS IS NOT SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WILL NOT SIMPLY DISSIPATE WITH A FEW HOURS OF
DAYTIME HEATING EITHER. AS A RESULT...WHEREVER THE SQUALL LINE
LEAVES AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...IT IS LIKELY TO HANG
AROUND AND MAINTAIN SOME IDENTITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...USING THE TEXAS TECH WRF`S SURFACE WIND FIELD AS A PROXY
FOR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY`S LOCATION THIS AFTERNOON...THINK IT WILL
END UP SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED POPS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF THE SQUALL LINE ACTUALLY
MOVES ALL THE WAY THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 18Z AS THE TEXAS TECH
WRF REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS...IT MAY COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
AS IT STANDS...HAVE 30 TO 40 POPS IN THE FORECAST SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 FOR THIS AFTERNOON
REPRESENTING THE MAXIMUM POPS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHLIGHTED AREAS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 BECAUSE MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER
WILL MOVE EAST AND PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TEXAS BY 00Z TODAY. IF THERE REALLY IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
STALLED OUT IN PLACE HERE...THE WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THIS
TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE AN IDEAL PLACE FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...IF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ELSEWHERE BY THIS
AFTERNOON...POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
THE 4 KM NAM INDICATES THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY IMPORTANT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON STORMS AS IT BLOWS UP SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF VERY
STRONG LOOKING CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY 00Z. THE NSSL
WRF ON THE OTHER HAND INDICATES THAT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL NOT
BE AS IMPORTANT AS AN MCV WITH REGARDS TO AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. THIS MODEL KEEPS WELL DEFINED MCV IN PLACE OVER EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONCENTRATES THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THERE INSTEAD OF ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW WHAT WILL BE
IMPORTANT UNTIL THIS MORNINGS SQUALL LINE DISSIPATES AND WE CAN
REEVALUATE WHAT THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
LIKE AT THAT TIME.
FOR TONIGHT...MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT OUR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT NORTH TO THE RED RIVER AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND KEPT HIGHER POPS
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA FOR TONIGHT AS A RESULT. IF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MAINTAINS ANY IDENTITY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF
THE DAY...IT WILL PROBABLY SERVE TO ENHANCE THE SLOPE OF LOW-
LEVEL ISENTROPIC SURFACES PERPENDICULAR TO LOW-LEVEL WINDS
RESULTING IN ENHANCED LIFT. THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD BENEFIT FROM
THIS ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL LIFT MORE SO THAN THE SOUTH.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MORE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A COL IN
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELD WILL SET UP OVER NORTH TEXAS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...KEPT BROAD BRUSHED POPS IN PLACE
FOR ALL AREAS. HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ADVERTISED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE DAY EACH DAY AS ANY HEATING COMBINED WITH
ANY WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALOFT WILL ENHANCE STORM CHANCES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. WITH VERY WEAK FLOW FORECAST TO EXIST OVER THE
CWA...MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE DAILY
WEATHER PATTERN. MESOSCALE FEATURES...BY PHYSICAL DEFINITION...
CANNOT BE FORECAST MORE THAN ABOUT 12 HOURS OUT AT BEST...SO DID
NOT PUT A WHOLE LOT OF DETAIL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AS A RESULT. FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...JUST KEEP IN MIND THAT
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY. THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE
MESOSCALE FEATURES AS THEY ARE RESOLVED...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR SOME AREAS WHILE LOWERING THEM FOR OTHERS. JUST LOOKING AT THE
PATTERN...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT FOR ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
OF THE DAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WENT AHEAD AND TOOK RAIN CHANCES OUT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF STOPPED
ADVERTISING THAT STALLED OUT UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO THAT IT HAD
BEEN SHOWING FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. IT NOW SHOWS WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT OVER THE CWA FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT
THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR DAYS. THINGS COULD CHANGE OF COURSE
AS THE RELEVANT FEATURES REMAIN WELL OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE PACIFIC. AT THIS TIME...SINCE MOST GUIDANCE AS ADVERTISING
RIDGING ALOFT...DECIDED TO OPT WITH A DRY FORECAST AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 84 75 90 75 88 / 30 40 40 30 40
WACO, TX 86 73 89 73 87 / 100 20 40 30 50
PARIS, TX 84 71 85 71 85 / 30 50 40 30 40
DENTON, TX 83 72 89 72 87 / 30 50 40 30 40
MCKINNEY, TX 83 73 89 73 87 / 30 50 40 30 40
DALLAS, TX 85 75 89 75 87 / 30 40 40 30 40
TERRELL, TX 84 76 91 73 88 / 30 30 40 30 40
CORSICANA, TX 87 74 88 73 86 / 30 30 40 30 50
TEMPLE, TX 87 73 89 73 87 / 100 20 40 30 50
MINERAL WELLS, TX 84 71 88 71 87 / 40 50 40 30 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1141 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS TODAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE. HAVE RAISED
POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE NW TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. RAP 13
PERFORMING WELL AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD IT`S SOLUTION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. OF INTEREST...THE RAP BRINGS A STRONG S/WV
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AND BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE
NAM 12 SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS HEADING SOUTH AND CONVECTION IS
GETTING CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
STILL SUGGESTS WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM BUT THE RAP 13 AND TEXAS
TECH 3 KM BECOMING MORE BULLISH WITH POPS OVER THE NW THIRD OF
THE CWA. RAISED POPS TO CHANCE OVER THE NW ZONES. 12Z CRP SOUNDING
HAS A PW VALUE OF 2.06 INCHES WITH SOME DRY AIR AT 700 MB. THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 80S WHICH IS MORE THAN REACHABLE.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL WANE THIS AFTN AS
SOME OF THE DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES TO THE SURFACE. WILL RE-EVALUATE
THAT TREND AFTER 17Z. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
LATEST RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW BAND OF STORMS SITUATED OVER NORTH
TEXAS...NEAR THE DFW METROPLEX. LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST AROUND 45 MPH. INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWING WARMING CLOUD
TOPS AND OVERALL WEAKENING OF THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. AVAILABLE
MESO MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS SYSTEM VERY WELL...BUT THESE
ALSO SHOW A DISSIPATION OF THE LINE GOING FORWARD. TAFS ARE
WRITTEN WITH THE IDEA THAT THIS DISSIPATING TREND WILL
CONTINUE...BUT NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN FAIRLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM. FOR THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH A VCTS
FOR CLL...UTS AND CXO BASED ON TIMING OF CURRENT LINE BUT BASED ON
LOW PROBABILITY IT WILL SURVIVE AS A LINE. FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...EVEN LESS LIKELY LINE WILL MAKE IT...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
NO MENTION OF PRECIP THERE IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
DECREASE IN CONVECTION TONIGHT...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY MVFR LATE
TONIGHT FOR IAH ON NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOW MATURE SQUALL LINE
PUSHING THROUGH OK/TX AND RED RIVER REGION. CLOSER TO HOUSTON
MAINLY OBSERVING SPOTTY SHOWERS BUT NOT MUCH PRECIP HITTING THE
GROUND. SQUALL LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA
THIS MORNING WITH STRONG COLD POOL BEHIND IT. RAPID REFRESH AND
WRF RUNS SHOW THE SQUALL LINE BREAKING UP BEFORE REACHING COLLEGE
STATION. KEPT THE FORECAST IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING FOR THE
MORNING BUT CONCERNED LINE COULD PUSH FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED
SINCE THERE IS LITTLE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR TO IMPEDE ITS
PROGRESS. FORECAST HOLDS WITH 20 POPS AS STILL POSSIBLE FOR ISO
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW TROUGHING OVER
MUCH OF TX. UPPER RIDGE IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND LIKELY SPLIT
BETWEEN NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE C GULF. GLOBAL MODELS ALL SUPPORT
TROUGHING OVER TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO SHOW A
SURGE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE LATE TUE INTO WED. GIVEN PERCIP WATER
VALUES OF NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR WED/THUR
DECIDED TO GO WITH 50/60 POPS EACH OF THOSE DAYS. TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF 1-2 INCH AN HOUR RAINRATES IN
STRONGER STORMS SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A CONCERN. THIS COULD
RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING AND RAPID INCREASES IN BAYOUS. AREAWIDE
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE TRICK TO THE FORECAST WILL BE WHERE
THE ISOLATED 3 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SET UP WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FLOODING IMPACTS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOES TRY TO STRENGTHEN DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE MORE ROBUST WITH THE RIDGE SUNDAY INTO NEXT
MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A SHEAR AXIS OVER THE NW GULF.
RIGHT NOW WILL STILL CARRY SOME LOWER POPS. THINK FRI/SAT WILL BE
DRIER BUT 40 POPS STILL DECENT CHANCES. WILL ALSO KEEP 20 POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR SUN/MON AS THERE STILL SHOULD BE PLENTY OF DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND RIDGING STRENGTH WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY
UNKNOWN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE COMING WEEK MAYBE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THIS MEANS UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. STILL COULD GET SOME
RAIN COOLED LOW 70S OR UPPER 60S BUT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THOSE
OCCURRENCES SINCE IT WILL DEPEND ON THE CONVECTION. THE NICE
THING ABOUT THIS FORECAST IS THAT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95F
THROUGH ALMOST THE END OF JUNE. CLIMATE FACTOID...CLL/IAH/HOU HAVE
YET TO REACH 95F OR HIGHER THIS YEAR FOR A MAX TEMP.
39
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH SUSTAINED 10 METER WINDS GENERALLY ONSHORE AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY. GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT
MID TO LATE WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WINDS A
POSSIBILITY BY WED OR THU. WITH PERSISTENT SE FLOW AND LONG FETCH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH 6 TO
9 FOOT SEAS A GOOD BET BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 46
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 93 74 90 74 88 / 60 30 40 20 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 92 76 90 75 88 / 60 20 40 20 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 89 80 88 80 87 / 20 20 30 40 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1124 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.UPDATE...
THIS MORNINGS MCS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
OF THE CWA. THE MOVEMENT OF THE REMAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS IS TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN ON THE
KGRK RADAR PUSHING AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY NOT BE A
FACTOR FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN OUR CWA WITH THE BOUNDARY
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION AND THE MEAN STEERING FLOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...ANOTHER BOUNDARY/FRONT CAN BE SEEN ON THE
KFWS RADAR AND SURFACE OBS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...
MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE WINDS AT
BOWIE HAVE COME AROUND TO THE NORTH AND OTHER SITES ALONG THE RED
RIVER HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST. BOTH THE HRRR AND RAP ARE
DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...THE AFTERNOON FORECAST IS STILL MUDDLED BY THIS
MORNING/S MCS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ARE
COOL IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. ANALYSIS OF AMDAR SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE RAPIDLY WARMED
IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE. A
RECENT AMDAR SOUNDING FROM DFW AT 1555Z SHOWS TEMPERATURES AT 900
MB HAVE WARMED 9 DEGREES CELSIUS SINCE THE RAIN STARTED. IN
ADDITION...THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAVE SIGNFICANTLY
DRIED UP TO ABOUT 600 MB. IN ORDER TO BREAK THE CAP THAT HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE
TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S AND THAT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN
TODAY. WHAT WE WILL LIKELY SEE IS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED
CONVECTION DEVELOP WITH HELP FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. IF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ABLE TO SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER TIME /AND THUS EFFECTIVELY
COOL THE TEMPERATURES AROUND 900-800 MB/...IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD
HAVE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IN PARTICULAR
AROUND ANY BOUNDARIES OR THE FRONT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. IN ANTICIPATION OF ELEVATED CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...TAILORED POPS TO 30 PERCENT IN THE EAST AND 40
PERCENT IN THE WEST. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION MAY OCCUR WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY THINNING OUT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE WARMEST
AND INSTABILITY WILL THUS BE THE HIGHEST IN THE AREA. WITH ANY
STORMS TODAY...GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS. STORM MOTION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE FASTER
THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS WHICH SHOULD HELP MITIGATE ANY FLASH FLOOD
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN...WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS.
82/JLD
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 616 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE METROPLEX TERMINAL
LOCATIONS...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 KT TO 50 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 13Z. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH WACO BY 15Z BUT SHOULD BE IN
A WEAKENED STATE BY THEN. NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT WE WILL GET
A GOOD LOOK AT FUTURE MODEL DATA BEFORE PINPOINTING SPECIFIC
TIMES FOR TS IN AREA FORECASTS.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST EARLY THIS MORNING WAS A
SQUALL LINE LOCATED FROM NORMAN TO WICHITA FALLS TO LUBBOCK AS OF
4 AM CDT. THIS SQUALL LINE WAS A BIT WEAKER THAN IT WAS AROUND
MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER ITS RADAR REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURE CONTINUED TO
SHOW A WELL ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS WITH FAIRLY UPRIGHT UPDRAFTS AND
STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
THIS STRUCTURE LIKELY MEANS THAT THIS SQUALL LINE WILL NOT FALL
APART OR SLOW DOWN MUCH AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE THAT WILL
LIKELY REACH OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA FIRST WAS STILL SEVERE WARNED BY
WFO OUN AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION. KFDR RADAR OBSERVED A
50-54 KT INBOUND VELOCITY AT AROUND 100 FT AGL WITHIN THIS
WARNING. THE SQUALL LINE MAY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN A BIT AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS...BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
CERTAINLY BE A POSSIBILITY WITHIN THIS LINE THIS MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...THE SQUALL LINE WAS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE DFW
METROPLEX FROM APPROXIMATELY 6 AM TO 8 AM. THIS TIMING MAY CHANGE
AS INTENSITY CHANGES WITHIN THE LINE OF STORMS...HOWEVER IMPACTS
TO THE MORNING RUSH HOUR COMMUTE LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
ASIDE FROM STRONG WIND GUSTS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS CONTINGENT UPON THE
SPEED OF THE STORMS AND THE SQUALL LINE IN GENERAL THIS MORNING.
THE TEXAS TECH WRF INDICATES THAT THE SQUALL LINE...OR ITS
REMNANTS...WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 12 TO 18Z. IF
THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS LESS LIKELY BECAUSE
STORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TOO QUICKLY. MANY OTHER
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE MEMBERS WEAKEN THE SQUALL LINE TO THE
POINT THAT IT DROPS A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY LATE THIS MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS...IT`S
ONLY GOING TO HAPPEN BECAUSE THE SQUALL LINE SLOWS DOWN
CONSIDERABLY FROM ITS CURRENT PACE. ANY ONGOING RAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING AS STORMS WILL SIMPLY BE MOVING SLOWER.
EITHER WAY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALONG THE SQUALL LINE BECAUSE MODELS INDICATE THAT PWATS
ONLY INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. WITH LITTLE AIRCRAFT ACTIVITY (FOR AMDAR SOUNDINGS)
OVERNIGHT...ITS DIFFICULT TO ESTABLISH IF THIS IS REALISTIC OR
NOT. HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE GOES SOUNDER OUTPUT...THERE IS A PLUME
OF 2 INCH (OBSERVED AS 50 MM) PWATS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE DFW
AREA...CONTINUING SOUTH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. HOW FAR NORTH OR EAST
THIS PLUME EXTENDS IS UNKNOWN BECAUSE THE SATELLITE CAN NOT SEE
THROUGH THICK UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THESE AREAS. THE FACT THAT 2
INCH PWATS ARE OBSERVED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF WHERE MODELS DEPICT 2
INCH PWATS THIS MORNING (GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35)
IS A GOOD SIGN THAT THE MODELS PROBABLY HAVE THIS RIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH A MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
WORDED FORECAST THIS MORNING...HIGHLIGHTING AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 AS HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE AT SEEING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. IN REALITY...WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE HOW THE
SQUALL LINE EVOLVES BECAUSE WHERE EVER THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY GOES...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL FOLLOW SUIT. THE IMPACTS WERE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LARGE SCALE
FLOODING...SO NO FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. WILL MONITOR STORMS AND HANDLE LOCALIZED FLOODING
TACTICALLY VIA WARNINGS...GRAPHICS AND SOCIAL MEDIA
DISSEMINATION.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...NEW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REALLY DEPEND ON
WHAT HAPPENS WITH OUR SQUALL LINE THIS MORNING. MANY MODELS SHOW A
GOOD QPF SIGNAL IN LINE WITH THE SQUALL LINE...BUT MOST
UNFORTUNATELY FAIL TO CARRY THE DYNAMICS OF THE SQUALL LINE INTO
THE MODEL MASS FIELDS. FOR INSTANCE...NOT ONE OPERATIONAL MODEL
BOTHERS TO BRING A WIND SHIFT LINE INTO THE CWA WITH THE SQUALL
LINE QPF BLOB THIS MORNING. THESE MODELS ALSO FAIL TO SUFFICIENTLY
STABILIZE/COOL THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE. THIS
PRESENTS A BIG FORECAST PROBLEM AS BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL
PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TEXAS TECH WRF AND THE 4 KM NAM BOTH AT LEAST INDICATED SOME
RESPONSE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...SO THESE MODELS WERE
WEIGHED MORE HEAVILY FOR THIS AFTERNOON`S THUNDERSTORM FORECAST.
AN 08Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A THETA-E DROP OF
AROUND 11 KELVIN BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE THIS MORNING. AS FAR AS
COLD POOLS GO BEHIND SQUALL LINES...THIS IS NOT SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WILL NOT SIMPLY DISSIPATE WITH A FEW HOURS OF
DAYTIME HEATING EITHER. AS A RESULT...WHEREVER THE SQUALL LINE
LEAVES AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...IT IS LIKELY TO HANG
AROUND AND MAINTAIN SOME IDENTITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...USING THE TEXAS TECH WRF`S SURFACE WIND FIELD AS A PROXY
FOR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY`S LOCATION THIS AFTERNOON...THINK IT WILL
END UP SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED POPS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF THE SQUALL LINE ACTUALLY
MOVES ALL THE WAY THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 18Z AS THE TEXAS TECH
WRF REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS...IT MAY COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
AS IT STANDS...HAVE 30 TO 40 POPS IN THE FORECAST SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 FOR THIS AFTERNOON
REPRESENTING THE MAXIMUM POPS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHLIGHTED AREAS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 BECAUSE MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER
WILL MOVE EAST AND PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TEXAS BY 00Z TODAY. IF THERE REALLY IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
STALLED OUT IN PLACE HERE...THE WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THIS
TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE AN IDEAL PLACE FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...IF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ELSEWHERE BY THIS
AFTERNOON...POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
THE 4 KM NAM INDICATES THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY IMPORTANT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON STORMS AS IT BLOWS UP SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF VERY
STRONG LOOKING CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY 00Z. THE NSSL
WRF ON THE OTHER HAND INDICATES THAT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL NOT
BE AS IMPORTANT AS AN MCV WITH REGARDS TO AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. THIS MODEL KEEPS WELL DEFINED MCV IN PLACE OVER EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONCENTRATES THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THERE INSTEAD OF ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW WHAT WILL BE
IMPORTANT UNTIL THIS MORNINGS SQUALL LINE DISSIPATES AND WE CAN
REEVALUATE WHAT THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
LIKE AT THAT TIME.
FOR TONIGHT...MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT OUR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT NORTH TO THE RED RIVER AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND KEPT HIGHER POPS
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA FOR TONIGHT AS A RESULT. IF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MAINTAINS ANY IDENTITY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF
THE DAY...IT WILL PROBABLY SERVE TO ENHANCE THE SLOPE OF LOW-
LEVEL ISENTROPIC SURFACES PERPENDICULAR TO LOW-LEVEL WINDS
RESULTING IN ENHANCED LIFT. THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD BENEFIT FROM
THIS ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL LIFT MORE SO THAN THE SOUTH.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MORE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A COL IN
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELD WILL SET UP OVER NORTH TEXAS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...KEPT BROAD BRUSHED POPS IN PLACE
FOR ALL AREAS. HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ADVERTISED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE DAY EACH DAY AS ANY HEATING COMBINED WITH
ANY WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALOFT WILL ENHANCE STORM CHANCES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. WITH VERY WEAK FLOW FORECAST TO EXIST OVER THE
CWA...MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE DAILY
WEATHER PATTERN. MESOSCALE FEATURES...BY PHYSICAL DEFINITION...
CANNOT BE FORECAST MORE THAN ABOUT 12 HOURS OUT AT BEST...SO DID
NOT PUT A WHOLE LOT OF DETAIL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AS A RESULT. FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...JUST KEEP IN MIND THAT
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY. THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE
MESOSCALE FEATURES AS THEY ARE RESOLVED...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR SOME AREAS WHILE LOWERING THEM FOR OTHERS. JUST LOOKING AT THE
PATTERN...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT FOR ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
OF THE DAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WENT AHEAD AND TOOK RAIN CHANCES OUT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF STOPPED
ADVERTISING THAT STALLED OUT UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO THAT IT HAD
BEEN SHOWING FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. IT NOW SHOWS WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT OVER THE CWA FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT
THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR DAYS. THINGS COULD CHANGE OF COURSE
AS THE RELEVANT FEATURES REMAIN WELL OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE PACIFIC. AT THIS TIME...SINCE MOST GUIDANCE AS ADVERTISING
RIDGING ALOFT...DECIDED TO OPT WITH A DRY FORECAST AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 84 75 90 75 88 / 30 40 40 30 40
WACO, TX 86 73 89 73 87 / 100 20 40 30 50
PARIS, TX 84 71 85 71 85 / 30 50 40 30 40
DENTON, TX 83 72 89 72 87 / 30 50 40 30 40
MCKINNEY, TX 83 73 89 73 87 / 30 50 40 30 40
DALLAS, TX 85 75 89 75 87 / 30 40 40 30 40
TERRELL, TX 84 76 91 73 88 / 30 30 40 30 40
CORSICANA, TX 87 74 88 73 86 / 30 30 40 30 50
TEMPLE, TX 87 73 89 73 87 / 100 20 40 30 50
MINERAL WELLS, TX 84 71 88 71 87 / 40 50 40 30 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
930 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS HEADING SOUTH AND CONVECTION IS
GETTING CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
STILL SUGGESTS WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM BUT THE RAP 13 AND TEXAS
TECH 3 KM BECOMING MORE BULLISH WITH POPS OVER THE NW THIRD OF
THE CWA. RAISED POPS TO CHANCE OVER THE NW ZONES. 12Z CRP SOUNDING
HAS A PW VALUE OF 2.06 INCHES WITH SOME DRY AIR AT 700 MB. THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 80S WHICH IS MORE THAN REACHABLE.
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL WANE THIS AFTN AS
SOME OF THE DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES TO THE SURFACE. WILL RE-EVALUATE
THAT TREND AFTER 17Z. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
LATEST RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW BAND OF STORMS SITUATED OVER NORTH
TEXAS...NEAR THE DFW METROPLEX. LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST AROUND 45 MPH. INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWING WARMING CLOUD
TOPS AND OVERALL WEAKENING OF THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. AVAILABLE
MESO MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS SYSTEM VERY WELL...BUT THESE
ALSO SHOW A DISSIPATION OF THE LINE GOING FORWARD. TAFS ARE
WRITTEN WITH THE IDEA THAT THIS DISSIPATING TREND WILL
CONTINUE...BUT NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN IT WILL OCCUR GIVEN FAIRLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM. FOR THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH A VCTS
FOR CLL...UTS AND CXO BASED ON TIMING OF CURRENT LINE BUT BASED ON
LOW PROBABILITY IT WILL SURVIVE AS A LINE. FARTHER SOUTH AND
EAST...EVEN LESS LIKELY LINE WILL MAKE IT...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
NO MENTION OF PRECIP THERE IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
DECREASE IN CONVECTION TONIGHT...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY MVFR LATE
TONIGHT FOR IAH ON NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOW MATURE SQUALL LINE
PUSHING THROUGH OK/TX AND RED RIVER REGION. CLOSER TO HOUSTON
MAINLY OBSERVING SPOTTY SHOWERS BUT NOT MUCH PRECIP HITTING THE
GROUND. SQUALL LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA
THIS MORNING WITH STRONG COLD POOL BEHIND IT. RAPID REFRESH AND
WRF RUNS SHOW THE SQUALL LINE BREAKING UP BEFORE REACHING COLLEGE
STATION. KEPT THE FORECAST IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING FOR THE
MORNING BUT CONCERNED LINE COULD PUSH FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED
SINCE THERE IS LITTLE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR TO IMPEDE ITS
PROGRESS. FORECAST HOLDS WITH 20 POPS AS STILL POSSIBLE FOR ISO
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW TROUGHING OVER
MUCH OF TX. UPPER RIDGE IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG AND LIKELY SPLIT
BETWEEN NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE C GULF. GLOBAL MODELS ALL SUPPORT
TROUGHING OVER TX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS ALSO SHOW A
SURGE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE LATE TUE INTO WED. GIVEN PERCIP WATER
VALUES OF NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR WED/THUR
DECIDED TO GO WITH 50/60 POPS EACH OF THOSE DAYS. TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF 1-2 INCH AN HOUR RAINRATES IN
STRONGER STORMS SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL A CONCERN. THIS COULD
RESULT IN URBAN FLOODING AND RAPID INCREASES IN BAYOUS. AREAWIDE
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE TRICK TO THE FORECAST WILL BE WHERE
THE ISOLATED 3 TO 5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS SET UP WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FLOODING IMPACTS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOES TRY TO STRENGTHEN DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.
THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE MORE ROBUST WITH THE RIDGE SUNDAY INTO NEXT
MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A SHEAR AXIS OVER THE NW GULF.
RIGHT NOW WILL STILL CARRY SOME LOWER POPS. THINK FRI/SAT WILL BE
DRIER BUT 40 POPS STILL DECENT CHANCES. WILL ALSO KEEP 20 POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR SUN/MON AS THERE STILL SHOULD BE PLENTY OF DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND RIDGING STRENGTH WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY
UNKNOWN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE COMING WEEK MAYBE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THIS MEANS UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. STILL COULD GET SOME
RAIN COOLED LOW 70S OR UPPER 60S BUT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THOSE
OCCURRENCES SINCE IT WILL DEPEND ON THE CONVECTION. THE NICE
THING ABOUT THIS FORECAST IS THAT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 95F
THROUGH ALMOST THE END OF JUNE. CLIMATE FACTOID...CLL/IAH/HOU HAVE
YET TO REACH 95F OR HIGHER THIS YEAR FOR A MAX TEMP.
39
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH SUSTAINED 10 METER WINDS GENERALLY ONSHORE AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY. GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT
MID TO LATE WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WINDS A
POSSIBILITY BY WED OR THU. WITH PERSISTENT SE FLOW AND LONG FETCH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH 6 TO
9 FOOT SEAS A GOOD BET BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 46
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 93 74 90 74 88 / 50 20 40 20 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 92 76 90 75 88 / 30 20 40 20 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 89 80 88 80 87 / 20 20 30 40 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
313 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW IS WITH HOW LONG THE ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL HOLD ON FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN WITH
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW.
CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES
NORTHEAST FROM IOWA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ALONG A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA WHERE MLCAPE IS AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. THE COMBINATION
OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND THE SLOW MOVING
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS LEAD TO SOME FUNNEL CLOUDS FORMING CLOSER TO
THE TWIN CITIES. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
HOURS HERE BEFORE THE SUN STARTS TO SET AND SB/MLCAPE STARTS TO
DROP OFF. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE DEVELOPED SOME SMALL
COLD POOLS WITH THIS CONVECTION AND TRIES TO KEEP IT GOING THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN. THINKING THAT
THESE SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT OVERDONE AS IT HAS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
GETTING INTO THE 90S...BUT WILL KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
GOING INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
THE FOCUS THEN GOES INTO TOMORROW AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA DROPS DOWN INTO THE REGION. THE STRONGEST
500-300MB PV ADVECTION RUNS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT DRIFTS DOWN INTO THE
REGION. THE THINKING IS THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. THE 23.12Z GUIDANCE
ALL SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY TAME AT 500-1000 J/KG
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LITTLE TO NO DEEP SHEAR TO WORK WITH...SO
SUSPECT THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OF THE PULSE NATURE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
WITH THIS COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL UNTIL IT GETS KICKED BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
NEXT WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS
NOT VERY HIGH AS MUCH OF IT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER ANY CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND WE SEE THE
NORTHERN OVERHANG OF IT. THE 23.12Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY YET HAS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT THEY HAVE ANALYZED ACROSS THE
AREA. THE 23.12Z NAM...MEANWHILE...HAS THE REGION MAINLY DRY
EXCEPT FOR A PORTION OF THE FRONT IN CENTRAL IOWA WHERE IT BUILDS
SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 70S AND TAKES MLCAPE UP TOO HIGH.
SO...THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BUT AT LEAST EXPECT THAT THE RAINS WILL
NOT BE ALL DAY DEALS AND JUST SOME PERIODS WHERE THIS CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE.
A PATTERN CHANGE TAKES PLACE FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS A DEEPER MID
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS FEATURE STALLS
OUT AND A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD SEVERE WEATHER-WISE WITH
STRONG 500MB WINDS OVERHEAD TO GO ALONG WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
DETAILS WILL FALL OUT THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE
THE TIME FRAME TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM RHINELANDER WI /KRHI/ TO AUSTIN MN
/KAUM/. MANY OF THE MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THESE CHANCES WERE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING EXPECT SKIES TO
BECOME SCATTERED AFTER 23.23Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
WHILE THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS WEEK...THE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LOW WITH MOST OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT STAYING SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE
STILL IS A LOT OF WATER COMING DOWN THE RIVERS FROM CENTRAL
MINNESOTA WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL LAST WEEK. EXPECT AREA
RIVERS...ESPECIALLY THE MAIN STEMS...TO STAY UP THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1235 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND THEN
AGAIN FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A VERY WEAK AND ILL DEFINED
PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY WORKING
EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA WHERE THE WINDS SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST
AND DEW POINTS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE. IT APPEARS THE FLOW ABOVE
THE SURFACE IS COMING AROUND TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH 925 MB VWP WINDS FROM KDMX AND KMPX ALREADY
AROUND TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
THE 23.00Z NAM AND GFS ALONG WITH THE 23.06Z RAP ALL TRY TO
GENERATE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER MISSOURI AND MOVE IT NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN ALONG THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT
BOUNDARY DEPICTED BY THE VWP WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE MAY INCREASE FOR A SHORT WHILE THIS MORNING ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THIS LOW TO POSSIBLY HELP GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY SOME LOW
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY THROUGH
ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL THEN COME TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DROPS OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WAVE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE VERY STRONG BUT SHOULD STILL BRING SOME
WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. ONLY WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT AND WITH BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE...IT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY WITH THE BULK OF THIS
OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST PAST DARK
NORTHEAST OF THE I94 CORRIDOR WITH THE COVERAGE DIMINISHING AS THE
CAPE DECREASES.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. THE WEAK PV ADVECTION FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD ONLY
ADVANCE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SHOULD ALLOW
1-3 UBAR/S OF ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 300K SURFACE TO START
SPREADING IN THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS COULD AGAIN BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY AS THE ML CAPE INCREASES TO
500-1000 J/KG.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A TEMPORARY
CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR FLOW AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS IN OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
TRENDS ARE FOR THIS TROUGH TO NOT BE A FAR SOUTH AS THEY NOW
INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING OVER CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS ALLOWS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO REMAIN OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND THEN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH WITH A POSITIVE TILT TO IT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BE SOUTH OF HUDSONS BAY TO HELP FUNNEL MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE COMBINATION OF THIS MOISTURE FEED
AND SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THEN THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH ITSELF WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM RHINELAND WI /KRHI/ TO AUSTIN MN /KAUM/.
MANY OF THE MESO MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE CHANCES WERE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
SCATTERED AFTER 23.23Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN PAIRED BACK TO ALMOST JUST THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. GIVEN THAT ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN DID NOT FALL
AND IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE FLOODING WILL
BECOME CONFINED TO JUST THE MISSISSIPPI. MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH
THE WEEK.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
655 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND THEN
AGAIN FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A VERY WEAK AND ILL DEFINED
PATTERN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY WORKING
EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA WHERE THE WINDS SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST
AND DEW POINTS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE. IT APPEARS THE FLOW ABOVE
THE SURFACE IS COMING AROUND TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH 925 MB VWP WINDS FROM KDMX AND KMPX ALREADY
AROUND TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
THE 23.00Z NAM AND GFS ALONG WITH THE 23.06Z RAP ALL TRY TO
GENERATE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER MISSOURI AND MOVE IT NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN ALONG THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT
BOUNDARY DEPICTED BY THE VWP WINDS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE MAY INCREASE FOR A SHORT WHILE THIS MORNING ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THIS LOW TO POSSIBLY HELP GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY SOME LOW
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY THROUGH
ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL THEN COME TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DROPS OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
WAVE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE VERY STRONG BUT SHOULD STILL BRING SOME
WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. ONLY WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT AND WITH BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE...IT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY WITH THE BULK OF THIS
OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS BOUNDARY STILL IN THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST PAST DARK
NORTHEAST OF THE I94 CORRIDOR WITH THE COVERAGE DIMINISHING AS THE
CAPE DECREASES.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY. THE WEAK PV ADVECTION FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD ONLY
ADVANCE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE SHOULD ALLOW
1-3 UBAR/S OF ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 300K SURFACE TO START
SPREADING IN THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS COULD AGAIN BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY AS THE ML CAPE INCREASES TO
500-1000 J/KG.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A TEMPORARY
CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR FLOW AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS IN OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
TRENDS ARE FOR THIS TROUGH TO NOT BE A FAR SOUTH AS THEY NOW
INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING OVER CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS ALLOWS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO REMAIN OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND THEN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH WITH A POSITIVE TILT TO IT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BE SOUTH OF HUDSONS BAY TO HELP FUNNEL MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE COMBINATION OF THIS MOISTURE FEED
AND SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THEN THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH ITSELF WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
LIFR CONDITIONS IN DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR AT KRST THROUGH 13Z THEN
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 14Z AS MIXING INCREASES.
LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST AT KLSE THROUGH 14Z WITH CEILINGS AT 600
FT. CLOUD BASES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING AND THE
OVERCAST SHOULD BECOME MORE BROKEN THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 15Z WITH BROKEN TO SCATTERED
CUMULUS. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TODAY AT THE TAF SITE BUT
THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN PAIRED BACK TO ALMOST JUST THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. GIVEN THAT ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN DID NOT FALL
AND IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE FLOODING WILL
BECOME CONFINED TO JUST THE MISSISSIPPI. MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGH
THE WEEK.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1153 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
CONCERNING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TRENDS HAVE REALLY BEEN ON THE DECREASE FOR THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED
FOR FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT. CURRENTLY A WEAKLY CONVERGENT TROUGH
RUNS ABOUT ON I-35 THROUGH IA AND SRN MN THEN ANGLES TO NEAR KAXN
IN MN. FURTHER WEST THE STABILIZING FRONT WAS EXTENDING FROM NW OF
KFSD-KINL AND PROGRESSING SE WITH MID-50S DEWPOINTS /KABR 00Z RAOB
WITH 0.70 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER/. INDICATIONS ARE FOR A BIT
FASTER COLD FRONTAL PUSH OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS WHICH
MEANS MONDAY WILL NOT HAVE ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT. PER THE 22.23Z
RAP...THE 925 MB WINDS ARE ALL NW IN THE FORECAST AREA BY 15Z. IN
FACT...MOST WINDS ON AND WEST OF THE MISS RIVER VEER AROUND TO NW
AT 925 MB BY 08Z. THIS PROVIDES A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION TO ANY
STORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT.
CONCERNING THE STORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT...THE INSTABILITY AFTER
THE AFTERNOON STORMS HAS SEVERELY IMPACTED THE CAPE AVAILABLE FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE
HUNDREDS OF J/KG OF MUCAPE AND RADAR IS SHOWING LITTLE SIGN OF ANY
ORGANIZED RAIN THREAT. THE COMPLEX NEAR ALBERT LEA MN HAS NOW
DISSIPATED. THERE IS A BIT OF FRONTOGENESIS IN MID LEVELS THAT
TRIES TO PRODUCE SOME LIFT FROM BLACK RIVER FALLS WI INTO NERN IA
OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BUT WITH LIMITED OR DIMINISHING
CAPES...ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.
WITH THAT SAID..THE AIR MASS STILL HAS POTENT MOISTURE /KMPX 00Z
RAOB 1.36 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER/. IT IS JUST THAT THE
ORGANIZATION AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT THERE FOR HEAVY RAIN. IN
FACT...WILL ALSO ASSESS THE RAIN COVERAGE TONIGHT...IT LOOKS MUCH
TOO HIGH PER LATEST HRRR RUNS AND 22.21Z HOPWRF RUN FROM MPX.
BOTTOM LINE IS WE HAVE STARTED TO MESSAGE A REDUCED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CANCELLED BY 9 PM
UNLESS SOMETHING CHANGES. HAVE ALREADY REMOVED TAYLOR AND CLARK
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TOMORROW IS ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND
WHETHER ANY FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE.
AN MCV FROM OVERNIGHT HAS COME THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION FROM
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND HAS KICKED UP
A BAND OF CONVECTION/RAIN OUT AHEAD OF IT. MUCH OF THE 22.12Z
GUIDANCE HAS NOT DONE A VERY GOOD JOB OF PICKING UP ON THIS
FEATURE AND STILL WANT TO DEVELOP A WIDE SWATH OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE HRRR HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF
CAPTURING THIS CONVECTION AND CLEARS MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE
WEST EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR MASS APPEARS TO
STAY OUT AHEAD OF THE MCV...SO AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SEVERE DEVELOPMENT BEHIND IT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH WITH HOW
TONIGHT WILL PAN OUT WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT STILL OFF TO THE
WEST...SO WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR THE TIME
BEING AND LET THE EVENING PLAY OUT A BIT MORE BEFORE CANNING IT.
THE 22.12Z NAM/GFS/GEM DID TREND FASTER WITH PUSHING THE
PRECIPITATION/MID LEVEL TROUGH/SFC LOW OFF TO THE EAST TOMORROW
MORNING...SO HAVE TRENDED A BIT FASTER WITH ENDING THE RAIN
CHANCES TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
AS SUBSIDENT AIR COMES IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG WITH IT. SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WITH THIS
FEATURE WITH LESS THAN 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXPECTED...SO NOT
THINKING THAT THIS WILL BE A SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCER AT THIS
POINT.
AFTER THAT FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH IT APPEARS TO STALL OUT FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS ON DOWN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH WITH OUR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT ALSO DID NOT HAVE MUCH OF
A CHANCE TO DIG INTO THE DETAILS WITH CONVECTION ON GOING...SO
HAVE GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL BLENDS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS FAR TO THE SOUTH
ARE PROVIDING AN OVERCAST CEILING AT HIGHER ALTITUDES. THERE MAY
BE SOME FOG IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
IT OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THE THICK HIGHER CLOUD KEEPING
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER. THERE IS ALSO SOME CLOUD DEBRIS MOVING
AROUND THAT ARE NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE TAFS BUT SHOULD ONLY BE
TRANSIENT AT THE AIRFIELDS TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LAST WEEK HAS PRIMED THE GROUND FOR ADDITIONAL
FLOODING WITH ANY STORMS THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. THE STORMS TODAY
HAD SOME BRIEFLY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AT ABOUT 2 INCHES PER HOUR
THOUGH THEY ONLY LASTED FOR ABOUT A HALF HOUR. MANY AREA RIVERS
ARE STILL ELEVATED FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL AND WILL LIKELY STAY
THAT WAY THROUGH THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS
POINT ABOUT WHETHER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS STILL NECESSARY FOR
TONIGHT...BUT WANT TO MAKE SURE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE OKAY
BEFORE DROPPING IT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
247 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
DEEPER CUMULUS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST HOUR IN THE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...BUT SO FAR NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF UPSCALE GROWTH AS THESE CELLS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
PLAINS. DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN AREAS NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THIS EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
MLCAPES OF 1000-1250 J/KG STRETCHING ALONG INTERSTATE 80 OVER THE
PLAINS COMBINED WITH 35-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. THE HRRR MODEL HAS A
LONE STORM MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE
LATE AFTN. SO VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT OVER LARAMIE COUNTY AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS GOING THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE GRADUALLY INCREASING
TEMPS AND INSTABILITY. FLOW ALOFT IS STILL WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY ON
TUES WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. DEW POINTS
INCH UP SLIGHTLY...SO CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE OVER TODAY WITH THE
GFS SHOWING AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG INTERSTATE 80. INSTABILITY DROPS
OFF TO 750 J/KG ACROSS CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY
BE OVER AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF A WHEATLAND TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE.
TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS AFTN. THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS STILL LOOKING LIKE
WED. A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WY DURING THE AFTN AND
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS BY WED AFTN ARE INTO THE UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S ALMOST EVERYWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER
THAN THE PRECEDING DAYS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE
AXIS...THERE IS STILL AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ITS A BIT
EARLY TO PINPOINT THE AREA OVER THE PLAINS THAN HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT IT WOULD SEEM TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAN MOVES INTO WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WEAK UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS YIELDS TO A BROADER UPPER TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT VEERS TO WESTERLY. SURFACE PATTERN WILL
BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH A RIDGE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND TROUGH ACROSS
THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH PASSING
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MINIMAL GIVEN WEAK SHEAR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FOR THE PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
DRIER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
60S AND 70S FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON OF TSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH BEST
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR INVOF TSTORMS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 KT...HAIL AND HEAVY
RAIN FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH 03Z IN SOUTHEAST WY AND 06Z FOR THE NEB PANHANDLE. WITH
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MIDWEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST AND THE BEST CHANCE
OF WETTING RAINS WILL EXIST TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SUCH
THAT MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 15
PERCENT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1153 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS. MODELS SHOW SFC WINDS VEERING TO
THE EAST BY THIS AFTN WHICH INCREASES THE BULK SHEAR TO 45-50 KT
OFF THE RUC BY THIS AFTN. AFTN INSTABILITY IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES (1000-1500 J/KG) IN AREAS ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER. SPC EXTENDED THE SLIGHT RISK NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND LARAMIE COUNTY WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.
COULD VERY WELL BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER...BUT MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOUTHEAST WYOMING IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING
ALONG A LINE FROM NEWCASTLE NORTHWARD TOWARDS DEVILS TOWER. MOST
MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...SHOWING IT
DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THAT HAS YET TO
HAPPEN. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE INITIALIZING THE BEST...SO WILL MAINLY
FOLLOW THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NAM SHOWS
BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PUSHES
ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THIS SEEMS
MORE REALISTIC GIVEN CURRENT OBS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM ALSO
SHOWS MOST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TODAY FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER...BUT THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT
WITH THE OTHER MODELS WHICH SHOW A SIMILAR SOLUTION. LOWERED POP
UP NORTH TO AROUND 30 PERCENT AFTER MID TO LATE MORNING...AND
INCREASED AREAS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BUT ALSO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW
MAXIMUM SURFACE HEATING TODAY. STILL EXPECT A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT THERE IS
CONCERN OVER CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW HIGHER LI/S AND
LOWER CAPE VALUES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MID TO UPPER LEVEL
WARMING. CAPE VALUES STILL AROUND 1500 TO 2500 J/KG EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT QUICKLY LOWER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...MEANING EITHER
CONVECTION WILL START PRETTY EARLY TODAY OR IT WILL BE LIMITED IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE EARLIER CONVECTION
INITIATION IS MORE LIKELY GIVEN CURRENT PROFILES...WITH ACTIVITY
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MULTI CELLULAR IN NATURE WITH TRAINING ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SOME PROPAGATION EXPECTED...DUE TO DECENT
40 TO 50 KNOT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
ON TUESDAY...MODELS NOW SHOW WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUING OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS REMAINING TO THE
EAST. YESTERDAY...MODELS INDICATED SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKING OVER...SO
THIS IS A BIT OF A CHANGE IN SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE...LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA TO NEAR 80 OVER FAR WESTERN CARBON COUNTY. WARMER AIR
WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO CARBON COUNTY...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. INCREASED POP BETWEEN 40 TO 55
PERCENT ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. CAN NOT RULE OUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER CAPE VALUES AND LI/S
BELOW -5C.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO CENTRAL WYOMING...GREATLY LIMITING TSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN
FACT...THE 00Z GFS SHOWS THIS DRIER AIR MOVING TOWARDS THE
NEBRASKA BORDER BY MIDDAY WITH DEW POINTS LOWERING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S BY MID AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THIS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE AND IS
PRETTY TYPICAL OF THE GFS WITH LLVL MOISTURE PRESENT AND WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW. KEPT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WITH POP
BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
WARM AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST MOVES EAST DURING THAT TIME.
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY
AS WEAK IMPULSES PASS BY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE MAIN UPPER TROF
AXIS WILL THEN PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND LEAVE A
RATHER DRY ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON OF TSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH BEST
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR INVOF TSTORMS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 KT...HAIL AND HEAVY
RAIN FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH 03Z IN SOUTHEAST WY AND 06Z FOR THE NEB PANHANDLE. WITH
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK WITH MINIMUM
DAYTIME HUMIDITIES ABOVE 20 PERCENT ACROSS MOST AREAS...AND EVEN
ABOVE 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS TO MOST AREAS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE VALLEY. SOME DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY LATE THIS WEEK...BUT DO NOT EXPECT CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FINCH
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...EMANUEL
AVIATION...JAMSKI
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1120 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS. MODELS SHOW SFC WINDS VEERING TO
THE EAST BY THIS AFTN WHICH INCREASES THE BULK SHEAR TO 45-50 KTS
OFF THE RUC BY THIS AFTN. AFTN INSTABILITY IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES (1000-1500 J/KG) IN AREAS ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER. SPC EXTENDED THE SLIGHT RISK NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND LARAMIE COUNTY WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.
COULD VERY WELL BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH A FEW MARGINALLY SVR
STORMS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER...BUT MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOUTHEAST WYOMING IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING
ALONG A LINE FROM NEWCASTLE NORTHWARD TOWARDS DEVILS TOWER. MOST
MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...SHOWING IT
DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT THAT HAS YET TO
HAPPEN. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE INITIALIZING THE BEST...SO WILL MAINLY
FOLLOW THE 00Z AND 06Z RUNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NAM SHOWS
BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PUSHES
ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THIS SEEMS
MORE REALISTIC GIVEN CURRENT OBS ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM ALSO
SHOWS MOST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TODAY FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER...BUT THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT
WITH THE OTHER MODELS WHICH SHOW A SIMILAR SOLUTION. LOWERED POP
UP NORTH TO AROUND 30 PERCENT AFTER MID TO LATE MORNING...AND
INCREASED AREAS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR IN THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BUT ALSO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE CLEARING SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW
MAXIMUM SURFACE HEATING TODAY. STILL EXPECT A SOMEWHAT HIGHER
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT THERE IS
CONCERN OVER CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW HIGHER LI/S AND
LOWER CAPE VALUES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MID TO UPPER LEVEL
WARMING. CAPE VALUES STILL AROUND 1500 TO 2500 J/KG EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT QUICKLY LOWER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...MEANING EITHER
CONVECTION WILL START PRETTY EARLY TODAY OR IT WILL BE LIMITED IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE EARLIER CONVECTION
INITIATION IS MORE LIKELY GIVEN CURRENT PROFILES...WITH ACTIVITY
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE WITH TRAINING ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SOME PROPAGATION EXPECTED...DUE TO DECENT
40 TO 50 KNOT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
ON TUESDAY...MODELS NOW SHOW WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUING OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS REMAINING TO THE
EAST. YESTERDAY...MODELS INDICATED SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKING OVER...SO
THIS IS A BIT OF A CHANGE IN SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE...LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA TO NEAR 80 OVER FAR WESTERN CARBON COUNTY. WARMER AIR
WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO CARBON COUNTY...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. INCREASED POP BETWEEN 40 TO 55
PERCENT ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. CAN NOT RULE OUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER CAPE VALUES AND LI/S
BELOW -5C.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO CENTRAL WYOMING...GREATLY LIMITING TSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN
FACT...THE 00Z GFS SHOWS THIS DRIER AIR MOVING TOWARDS THE
NEBRASKA BORDER BY MIDDAY WITH DEWPOINTS LOWERING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S BY MID AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THIS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE AND IS
PRETTY TYPICAL OF THE GFS WITH LLVL MOISTURE PRESENT AND WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW. KEPT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WITH POP
BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
WARM AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST MOVES EAST DURING THAT TIME.
CHANCES FOR MAINLY LATE DAY CONVECTION WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY
AS WEAK IMPULSES PASS BY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE MAIN UPPER TROF
AXIS WILL THEN PASS ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND LEAVE A
RATHER DRY ZONAL FLOW IN ITS WAKE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
MAINLY VFR TODAY OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY LOW VSBYS IN THE LARAMIE
VALLEY THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTRMS DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED
LOWER VSBYS. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT AS WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK WITH MINIMUM
DAYTIME HUMIDITIES ABOVE 20 PERCENT ACROSS MOST AREAS...AND EVEN
ABOVE 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS TO MOST AREAS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE VALLEY. SOME DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY LATE THIS WEEK...BUT DO NOT EXPECT CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FINCH
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
403 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AND
CREEP THROUGH ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN ON FRIDAY
AND REMAIN NEARBY HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM LOOKS TO REACH OUR REGION BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LTST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE PRECIP WELL BACK IN WRN PA MOVG GENLY
NEWD. VERY LITTLE EWD PROGRESSION WAS NOTED. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING THINGS WELL. PRECIP REALLY DOESN`T ARRIVE IN OUR CWA UNTIL
THE LATER MRNG HOURS WITH THE FRONT DURG THE LATE AFTN INTO THE EVEN
HRS.
A S/WV WILL ENHANCE UVV, BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING IS N AND W AND
BEST CHCS FOR HVY RAIN ARE AS WELL. WHILE IT DOES APPEAR THERE
COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING, THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES ATTM.
THE CDFNT WILL SLOWLY WORK EWD TODAY THRU THIS EVE AND PRECIP CHCS
WILL INCREASE FRO W TO E.
GUID TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AND WERE GENLY FOLLOWED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE CDFNT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACRS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL
START WITH LIKELY POPS ERLY AND TAPER TO CHC BY THE END OF THE PD.
PRECIP SHUD BE WINDING DOWN FROM NW TO SE BY DAYBREAK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5-WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAK TROUGHING, ZONAL-ISH FLOW, ACROSS THE
REGION AT THE START OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO
TRANSITION TO RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND BUT THEN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
INTO ANOTHER BOUT OF FAST ZONAL FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD...MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED AS THIS OCCURS.
THURSDAY...POOR MANS ENSEMBLE SHOWS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY
MOVING THROUGH AS THE BERMUDA RIDGING STARTS GETTING AMPED UP. THE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SLOWLY LIMPING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD SLOW THE FRONTS EXIT FURTHER SO WE CONTINUE
WITH THE CHANCE POPS, SLOWLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES A BIT OF A QUESTION TOO, MAINLY WEST OF I-95. AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE IS SOME WEAK CAA TAKING PLACE BUT SURFACE
WINDS LOOK TO BE MORE WESTERLY FOR A TIME. THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
WOULD HELP TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES BUT
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THEN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED AND ULTIMATELY KEEP TEMPERATURES TEMPERED DOWN A BIT.
NOT TOO CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME WITH HIGHS TOMORROW BUT DID UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE BY A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST GIVEN THE ABOVE
SCENARIO.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY AND WINDS BACK AROUND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. MUCH
LIKE OVER THE PAST WEEKEND WE WILL STILL HAVE THE WEAK LINGERING
TROUGH NEARBY WITH A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR INTERIOR AREAS AND BETTER HEATING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN ON
THURSDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW OCCURRING.
SATURDAY - TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND
AS THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS RIDGING BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL HAVE SHIFTED WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION PUTTING US IN THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME RING OF
FIRE FLOW REGIME. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND CONVECTION ARE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON SO WE CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING EACH DAY AS HEIGHTS RISE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED BACK INTO THE REGION.
THERE LOOK TO BE A COUPLE DAYS WHERE WE COULD EXCEED 90F.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES AND MANY ARE MVFR AS A
RESULT, WHILE SOME REMAIN VFR. EXPECT THE OVERALL TREND TO BE
DOWNWARD TO MVFR THRU THE MRNG HOURS. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
IFR AS WELL. THEN THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURG
THE ERLY AFTN AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING CDFNT FROM THE W.
THE CDFNT WILL ARRIVE LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE AND BRING SHRA/TSRA. SOME
OF THE RAIN CUD BE HEAVY AND THERE COULD BE A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR
WITH THE FRONT. SOME SHOWERS WILL THEN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE BEYOND THAT EVEN AFTER THE RAIN ENDS.
A GENL S WIND IS EXPECTED, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS, PSBLY A BIT
HIGHER DURG THE AFTN AND OF COURSE HIGHER IN ANY TSRA.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PDS
WITH A GENL S FLOW AHEAD OF A CDFNT THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE. SHWRS AND TSRA
ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE CFP.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND THEN
VEER TOWARDS SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL DECREASE TO
AROUND 2-3 FEET BY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT REMAINS
WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCAL FLOODING AS THE PW VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES.
AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES, THE FLOW IS GENERALLY PARALLEL TO IT WHICH
INTRODUCES THE RISK FOR TRAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS, AND ANY TRAINING OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL ENHANCE
THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT. THE ARRIVAL OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
FRONT MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ALLOW FOR MORE
FOCUSED DOWNPOURS. THIS LOOKS TO INITIALLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY, THEN IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING
THE EVENING. THE 1-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH VALUES AT OR LESS THAN 2.00
INCHES. THESE SIMILAR AREAS ON THE 3-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAVE
VALUES BETWEEN ABOUT 2.00 AND 2.50 INCHES. IT IS THESE LOCATIONS AND
THE MORE URBANIZED SPOTS THAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT BEING ISSUED ATTM DUE TO SOME QUESTION ON
HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS /AREAL COVERAGE/ AND WHERE IF BECOMES FOCUSED
THE LONGEST. A MENTION HOWEVER REMAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
MARINE...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
HYDROLOGY...GORSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1214 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. A COLD
FRONT AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG IT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY AND REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL ARRIVE NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED PRECIP WELL BACK IN WRN PA AND
MOVING NEWD, WITH LITTLE PROGRESS IN OUR DIRECTION OVERALL. THE
HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS WELL AND KEEPS THE PRECIP PRETTY
MUCH IN THE SAME AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT SAID, HAVE REMOVED ALL
POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ITS POSSIBLE WITH DEW POINTS COMING
UP THERE COULD BE SOME ECHOES FORMING AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE, SO
DIDN`T WANT TO TAKE THE PRECIP OUT TOO FAR IN ADVANCE, BUT OVERALL
POPS SHOULD BE QUITE LOW THRU DAY BREAK.
THE GFS AND CAN GGEM WERE VERIFYING THE BEST AS TO WHERE WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS AND ALSO THE GEOGRAPHIC
EXTENT. ALSO ECHOES HAVE BEEN VERIFYING SE OF THE COSPA AND WITH
THE LATEST RUC RUNS A BIT WETTER EAST AND NO RIDGING TO STOP IT,
WE KEPT THE LOW CHANCE POPS IN THRU THE NIGHT WEST.
CWA HAS BEEN BENEFITING FROM LOWER DEW POINTS AND TEMP ERRORS
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE BEEN TOO WARM, SO WE NUDGED BOTH TEMPS
AND DEWS DOWNWARD. MIXING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS HAS LESSENED
AND WE HAVE NUDGED SPEEDS DOWNWARD FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND
KEPT SIMILAR SPEEDS OVERNIGHT.
FOR TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE WHILE A SFC
TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE
NW. THE RESULTING PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT SLY FLOW
OVER THE AREA. THIS PLUS SW FLOW ABOVE THE SFC WILL BRING
INCREASING MOIST AIR IN TO THE REGION. CLOUDINESS WILL BE
INCREASING OVERNIGHT INCLUDING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME
FOG AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO CLEAR-CUT FORCING FOR UVV...WE
HAVE MAINTAINED A CHC OR SLGT CHC POP FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS N/W OF PHL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE SFC TROF AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO PA ON WED
AND A SHRTWV TROF ALOFT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE W AND SW. THE
SHRTWV WILL ENHANCE UVV...ALTHO THE BEST FORCING SEEMS TO BE TO OUR
N AND NW. EVEN SO THERE WILL BE A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH
PWS FCST TO BE OVER 2 INCHES. IN SPITE OF INCREASING CLOUDS...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEATING TO PRODUCE INSTBY FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY WITH POPS INCREASING WEST TO EAST. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND SOME
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS WILL BE MOVING SW TO
NE AND IF TRAINING OCCURS THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
HOWEVER ATTM WE BELIEVE THE FLOODING THREAT IS NOT WIDESPREAD OR
ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A FF WATCH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE SITN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK MEAN H5 TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE TROUGH GETS KICKED TO THE EAST SATURDAY ALLOWING H5 RIDGING TO
TAKE PLACE ACROSS OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGING PERSISTS
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SIGNS BEYOND THE LONG
TERM THAT THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES ALOFT TO
COME CLOSE TO OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FROM THU INTO SAT...THEN READINGS
WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S MON AND APPROACH 90 (OR EXCEED IN THE METRO
AREAS) NEXT TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHC WILL BE TIED TO TRANSIENT SHORT WAVES AND WEAK
FRONTS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS POOR
AT BEST BY THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...SO THE WPC POPS WERE USED IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE BEST CHC FOR PCPN ARE SAT/SUN ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WRN AREAS AND AGAIN NEXT TUE...MOSTLY WRN AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
00Z TAFS CONTINUE THE IDEA OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FORMING
OVERNIGHT AND WE INTRODUCED TSTMS LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD.
FOR THIS EVENING VFR WITH POSSIBLY SOME LEFTOVER CUMULUS CLOUDS
AND THEN SOME CIRRUS ABOVE IT. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 5
TO 10 KTS.
OVERNIGHT WE ARE FORECASTING MVFR (IFR VSBY AT KMIV) CIGS AND
VSBYS TO DEVELOP. WE ARE SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT THE CIGS
FORMING THAN THE VSBYS. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND ABOVE THE
DEVELOPING INVERSION, BUT NEAR THE SURFACE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, IMPROVING, HIGHER MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY. WE ARE EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS THEN TO START THE AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WINDS AROUND
10 KTS. NO DISCERNIBLE SEA BREEZE FRONT IS EXPECTED. TSTMS WERE
BROUGHT IN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE
AT OUR TERMINALS DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING. STRONGER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
THU THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR WITH ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
FAIRLY QUIET CONDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NJ/DE COASTAL
WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...OR AT LEAST NO
SCA FLAGS ARE EXPECTED ATTM. SLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING
SOME TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW
BUT CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS WED AFTN AND
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL
TEND TO HAVE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL AS THE USUAL LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS CAN
BE EXPECTED AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT REMAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCAL FLOODING AS THE PW
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES.
AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES, THE FLOW IS GENERALLY PARALLEL TO IT WHICH
INTRODUCES THE RISK FOR TRAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS, AND ANY TRAINING OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL ENHANCE
THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT. THE ARRIVAL OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
FRONT MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ALLOW FOR MORE
FOCUSED DOWNPOURS. THIS LOOKS TO INITIALLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY, THEN IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING
THE EVENING. THE 1-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH VALUES AT OR LESS THAN 2.00
INCHES. THESE SIMILAR AREAS ON THE 3-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAVE
VALUES BETWEEN ABOUT 2.00 AND 2.50 INCHES. IT IS THESE LOCATIONS AND
THE MORE URBANIZED SPOTS THAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT BEING ISSUED ATTM DUE TO SOME QUESTION ON
HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS /AREAL COVERAGE/ AND WHERE IF BECOMES FOCUSED
THE LONGEST. A MENTION HOWEVER REMAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC/GIGI/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...AMC/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1245 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014
...Updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
Main focus is on this afternoon and tonight. Problematic forecast because
the short term convective allowing mesoscale models aren`t handling
the current situation that well. The most recent RAP is starting to
get a clue and looks reasonable. Convection is firing off an old outflow
boundary and a minor upper level pressure perturbation. Convection is
building southward with southerly winds feeding into it, so think storms
will continue to increase in coverage with this associated warm air
advection and eventually forward propagate. Large Hail Parameter (LHP)
is lower now with a value of 4. Think this is due to fairly less steep
mid level lapse rates and more marginal upper level wind shear. Anyhoo,
moderate instability and lower end shear will still support the notion
of severe weather across the forecast area. The most significant threat
is heavy rainfall with pwats up 116% above normal per blended satellite
derived products. Ramped up pops and qpf, although my pops could be
raised even higher, but did not want to be too out of coordination with
neighbors. Will monitor and tweak pops and wx as needed in the ESTF
period. Lows tonight will be in the 60s. Highs in the 80sF tomorrow
with more MCS activity likely.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
For Wednesday night, a lee trough will be nearly stationary with
moist upslope flow. The upper level winds are very weak, but with
good instability some thunderstorms will be likely mainly north of
and east of Dodge City. Have upped thunderstorms chances to around
60 percent in the I-70 area and 30 to 40 percent elsewhere. The
chances for widespread severe weather looks only marginal at this
time with weak upper level support. Overnight lows will be mild and
in the mid to upper 60s.
For Thursday, a lee trough continues with moist upslope flow and
again the upper winds look weak to support any severe weather. Some
thunderstorms will be lingering across mainly parts of south central
Kansas. Highs will range from the low to mid 90s west towards the
Colorado border, to the upper 80s east across parts of south central
Kansas.
For the period of Friday into next Tuesday, a strong upper level
shortwave trough will be moving east into the Intermountain
West and Colorado Rockies on Friday afternoon. This system then
lifts northeast into the Northern Plains for the Weekend. The best
chances for thunderstorms looks to be along the I-70 corridor on
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The main storm track then looks
to remain north of Kansas into Tuesday. Overnight lows will be mild
in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with highs warming from around 90 on
Friday to the mid 90s on Sunday and Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
Much like yesterday, we will likely see mid to late afternoon
thunderstorms redeveloping as surface-based instability
increases...as we remain in a similar pattern to yesterday.
Outside of thunderstorms, winds will average southeast at 12 to 15
knots. The best time frame for storms will be from roughly 21Z
Wednesday to 02Z Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 89 68 92 / 40 20 10 10
GCK 67 90 68 96 / 40 20 10 10
EHA 66 93 67 97 / 30 10 10 10
LBL 68 92 69 96 / 30 20 10 10
HYS 67 88 69 93 / 60 30 10 10
P28 68 89 69 91 / 50 40 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
440 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 07Z FEATURE SOME
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAWN HOURS. THE FRONT OR RATHER MORE OF JUST A WEAK
BOUNDARY WITH LITTLE GRADIENT LIES JUST TO THE WEST THROUGH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST INTO THE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH A WEAKENING OVERALL TREND TO THIS
FEATURE...HAVE DROPPED MOST POPS TO CHANCE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE DAY. THE INSTABILITY REMAINS SO WILL GO WITH A COVERAGE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND
A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON. PROBLEM IS THAT
THE HI RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND THE SREF BRING THE FRONT
THROUGH A BIT EARLY BASED ON TRENDS AND HAVE GONE WITH A LATE MORNING
PASSAGE AND WILL KEEP THUNDER CHANCES IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING BUT CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION.
THIS WILL ALSO BRING COOLING TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE LOWER 80S.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...PRECIP WILL END IN THE EAST RATHER EARLY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL ESPECIALLY...WILL BE LIKELY
TO SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE PUT THIS IN THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.
THE BRIEF RIDGING SHOULD HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AND KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
DISTURBANCE BUT OVERALL...THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY AT THIS
TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
A NW/SE ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE
SITUATED JUST TO OUR SW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH MORE
HUMID/UNSTABLE AIR NEAR AND SW OF THE BOUNDARY...AND SOMEWHAT LESS
HUMID AIR OVER THE JKL FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT OR PREVENT
PRECIP FOR OUR AREA INITIALLY. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NE AND
DISSOLVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THEN
INCREASING FOR OUR AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS TIME...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SE CONUS. HOWEVER...IT
WILL LIKELY BE A DIRTY RIDGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR OUR LOCAL AREA
SHOW A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT CAP...INCREASED MOISTURE IN FLOW OFF
THE GULF...WEAK LAPSE RATES...AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS TROPICAL
ATMOSPHERE WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH A
DIURNAL TREND. HAVE USED 20-30 PERCENT POPS EACH PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD START TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF IS SHOWN TO
BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES AND MAY SEND A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARD US BY
MIDWEEK...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING OR HOW
WELL THE FRONT HOLDS TOGETHER. WITH MIXED SIGNALS CONCERNING THE
FAVORABILITY OF CONDITIONS FOR PRECIP...THE RESULTING FORECAST WILL
BE A CONTINUING LOW POP WITH A DIURNAL TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SLOWLY TONIGHT
AND WITH THIS...CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP AS IS ALREADY OCCURRING
AT SME AND LOZ. JKL AND SJS WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS DAWN AND
HAVE PUT THEM IN THE TAFS TOWARDS 12Z WITH IFR CEILINGS AS THE
ACTIVITY MOVES IN. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AFTER 14Z AT MOST TAF
LOCATIONS WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EAST AND SJS...SEEING VCTS INTO
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...MOST LOCATIONS WILL RISE
TO VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN AFTER 00Z DUE TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE PUT THIS INTO THE TAF SITES AS WELL. THE LACK OF
CONFIDENCE TODAY WILL SHOW IN THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST AS SOME
LOCATIONS WILL GO ALL DAY WITHOUT SEEING ANY ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE FOR
WINDS...EXPECT SOUTH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST TO NORTH WEST WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW GUSS TO 20 KNOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
356 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 07Z FEATURE SOME
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAWN HOURS. THE FRONT OR RATHER MORE OF JUST A WEAK
BOUNDARY WITH LITTLE GRADIENT LIES JUST TO THE WEST THROUGH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST INTO THE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH A WEAKENING OVERALL TREND TO THIS
FEATURE...HAVE DROPPED MOST POPS TO CHANCE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE DAY. THE INSTABILITY REMAINS SO WILL GO WITH A COVERAGE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND
A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON. PROBLEM IS THAT
THE HI RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND THE SREF BRING THE FRONT
THROUGH A BIT EARLY BASED ON TRENDS AND HAVE GONE WITH A LATE MORNING
PASSAGE AND WILL KEEP THUNDER CHANCES IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING BUT CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION.
THIS WILL ALSO BRING COOLING TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE LOWER 80S.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...PRECIP WILL END IN THE EAST RATHER EARLY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL ESPECIALLY...WILL BE LIKELY
TO SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE PUT THIS IN THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.
THE BRIEF RIDGING SHOULD HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AND KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
DISTURBANCE BUT OVERALL...THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY AT THIS
TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SLOWLY TONIGHT
AND WITH THIS...CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP AS IS ALREADY OCCURRING
AT SME AND LOZ. JKL AND SJS WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS DAWN AND
HAVE PUT THEM IN THE TAFS TOWARDS 12Z WITH IFR CEILINGS AS THE
ACTIVITY MOVES IN. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AFTER 14Z AT MOST TAF
LOCATIONS WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EAST AND SJS...SEEING VCTS INTO
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...MOST LOCATIONS WILL RISE
TO VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN AFTER 00Z DUE TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE PUT THIS INTO THE TAF SITES AS WELL. THE LACK OF
CONFIDENCE TODAY WILL SHOW IN THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST AS SOME
LOCATIONS WILL GO ALL DAY WITHOUT SEEING ANY ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE FOR
WINDS...EXPECT SOUTH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST TO NORTH WEST WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW GUSS TO 20 KNOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
200 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING AS DEW POINTS SLOWLY RISE
DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS DIFFER A BIT
ON HOW MUCH PCPN ACROSS NC LIFTS N INTO SRN VA BY 12Z. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...KEPT LOW CHC POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF RT 460. WARMER
NIGHT THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE U60S-M70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS AGREE ON THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND THE NORTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY...BUT ARE STRUGGLING SOME TO DEPICT THE FEATURES AND
LIFT PATTERNS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH OVER VA AND NC. SO THIS HAS LED
TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
WITH THE TROUGH LIFTING TO THE NORTH...THE BEST FORCING IS ALSO
LIFTING NORTH AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NRN VA/WRN MD INTO PA WED
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH VA/NC DURING
THIS TIME...BUT THE BOUNDARY IS WEAK AND THE LIFT IS NOT FOCUS SO
HAVE HELD MOST POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DID KEEP A LITTLE AREA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO THE FORCING. THE OTHER FEATURE TO WATCH IS THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE SERN US COAST THAT
GETS PULLED NORTHWARD ON WED. THIS COULD KICK OFF SHOWERS ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS FROM ERN NC THROUGH THE DELMARVA. BUT AGAIN THE
FORCING IS NOT STRONG AND THE TIMING IS EARLY IN THE DAY. SO FOR
NOW HAVE JUST GONE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THAT WAVE.
THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY SO HAVE THE
SFC FRONT OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXITING BY THURS AFTERNOON. SO HAVE SPED THE CLEARING OF THE POPS
THUR AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BE DRY EVERYWHERE BASE ON HOW QUICK
THE DRY AIR ARRIVES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
BY THURS EVENING INTO FRIDAY...WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVE AND
SLOWLY SLIDE OFF THE COAST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL TURN THE
SFC FLOW FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BACK TO THE SE BY FRI
AFTERNOON. WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS...COULD
SEE SOME POP UP CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT SO HAVE KEPT SLGT CHC
POPS IN THE SOUTH BUT DID DRY OUT AREAS FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED NEAR THE MOS NUMBERS FOR
THE PERIOD...LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS ON WED WITH
SOME MORNING SUNSHINE...AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER MOISTURE THAT WILL TAKE TIME TO ERODE AFTER THE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. FROM THURS TO FRIDAY...HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD A STRAIGHT
BLEND...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AGREE WITH WPC THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH OVERALL
PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD. THIS LOOKS TO BE A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN FOR THE AREA. A RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ALOFT ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS
NEAR 70.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY LIGHT S/SSE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME MVFR
STRATUS EARLY WED MORNING OVER THE TERMINALS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW PRECIP
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES NORTH.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING LAYERED CEILINGS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY
AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. TIMING/PLACEMENT
OF PRECIP IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN THE
TAFS. AREAS OF MVFR/PATCHY IFR FOG OR STRATUS WILL BE PSBL EACH
MORNING NEAR SUNRISE.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ALL DEPICT A SOUTHERLY SURGE UP THE BAY. THIS
DOES HAPPEN SOMETIMES WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. LOOKING AT THE MODEL WINDS ONLY THE RUC SHOWS
WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW THE LOCAL
WRF AND KEEP WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 18 KTS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE. ALL MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A FAIRLY WEAK FRONT.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND AND GRADUALLY SHIFT THE WINDS
TO THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL STAY UNDER SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
407 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE LOWER MICHIGAN
BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL WAVES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. WEAK SUBSIDENCE
BETWEEN THE FEATURES WILL SUPPRESS SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
THUMB REGION BY SUNRISE. THAT WILL LEAVE FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO
CONTEND WITH DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH SE MICHIGAN. THE LATEST TREND IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORT VISIBILITY HANGING AROUND 1/2 MILE FROM
THE I-69 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD WHERE THE WIND IS CALM AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE CLEARING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN
PATCHES BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR TOO SOON
FOR AN ADVISORY...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR HEADLINE POTENTIAL
THROUGH SUNRISE. FARTHER NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...LIGHT NE SURFACE
WIND IS TRANSITIONING FOG TO LOW STRATUS WHICH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH
THE ENTIRE AREA BY MID MORNING AND THEN PERSIST TOWARD NOON.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE OHIO BORDER AS THE UPPER CIRCULATION OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES
TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS FEATURE IS CLEARLY SEEN IN WV SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK REFLECTION THAT WILL
SLIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND PREVENT IT FROM SETTLING TOO FAR SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THE NAM AND RAP MODELS GIVE A GOOD LOOK AT SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN LOWER...IN THE LEE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN WEAK GRADIENT FLOW WHILE
THE FRONT ITSELF LINGERS OVER OHIO AND INDIANA. DELAYED LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINT LINGERING IN THE LOWER 60S. SOME COOLING ALOFT IS
ALSO EXPECTED AS THE UPPER CIRCULATION MOVES OVERHEAD. MODEL
DEPICTION OF 500 MB TEMP INDICATES READINGS COOLING FROM ABOUT
-10C TO ABOUT -14C BY EVENING RESULTING IN SURFACE BASED CAPE
AROUND 750 J/KG TO POSSIBLY NEAR 1000 J/KG IF THE NAM SURFACE
PARCEL WORKS OUT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON SURFACE CONVERGENCE BUT COULD DRIFT INTO OUR
AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75/US 23 CORRIDOR. ACTIVITY WILL ALSO
BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON DIURNAL HEATING AND SO WILL DISSIPATE BY
MID EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL THEN ALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER LOWER MICHIGAN MORE FIRMLY DURING THE
NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A STABLE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXPAND THROUGH ALL OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY...CLEARING ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BY THE AFTERNOON...THE MODELED MSLP
STRUCTURE IS ONE SHOWING A HEAVY LAKE AGGREGATE COMPONENT. MODELS
ARE RESOLVING SPURIOUS QPF BLOTCHES IN THE REGION WHICH BRINGS THE
SUSPICION THAT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION PARAMETRIZATION MAY BE BEGINNING
TO SHOW THEMSELVES. THE COMBINATION OF A DRY NEAR SURFACE AIRMASS
WITH SOME MODELED SUBSIDENCE DOWN INTO THE 12 KFT AGL LEVEL NEGATES
ANY POSSIBILITY OF MENTIONING A LOW POP. THE ONLY THING GOING FOR
THIS PERIOD IS SOME RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH 80 DEGREES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXES PUSHING EASTWARD INTO
STATE. BUMPED AVAILABLE GUIDANCE UPWARD FOR THE FRIDAY PERIOD WITH A
SOLID INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB ABOVE 80 DEGREES.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO PIVOT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS WEEKEND OPENING THE DOOR FOR DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
SATURDAY...INCREASING ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM
SUMMERTIME WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. THE QUESTION IS WHEN WILL PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN.
FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES SUGGEST WAIT
UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN.
&&
.MARINE...
IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN YESTERDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER ALL
OF THE MARINE AREAS. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS INITIAL COLD FRONT IS
NOT THAT COLD...SO NOT EXPECTING A ROBUST RESPONSE IN THE NORTHERLY
WIND FIELD. THAT BEING SAID...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESPOND
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN
SHOULD RANGE IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD AGGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. DESPITE COOLER AIR
BLANKETING THE REGION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
SLACKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN. VERY QUIET MARINE
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1200 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
//DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD AND ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE COMBINED WITH
VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT THE EXPANSION OF LOWER
STRATUS AND FOG THROUGH THE TIME. RECENT OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A PERIOD OF LIFR CEILING REMAINS POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS...CONCURRENT WITH IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. STEADY
DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
418 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS VORT MAX ROTATING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
MN...TRIGGERING SCT TSTMS OVER NRN WISCONSIN. THE HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX AND SUGGESTS
THE STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE HAYWARD LAKES/CHEQUAMEGON
NATIONAL FOREST REGION THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN DIMINISHES AFTER
THE NOON HOUR AS THE WAVE EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR BEHIND THE WAVE WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES FOR A
FEW SHOWERS OVER NRN MN TODAY. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION
OF THUNDER FOR THE MN ZONES WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED TO
LESS THAN 100 J/KG.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER ONTARIO WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...SETTLING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY. THE LATEST NAM/GFS/ECM SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD REGION LATE
TODAY/OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE DRY AIR AND BUILDING SFC HIGH/CLEARING
SKIES...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR INLAND
AREAS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST RESULTS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE SW FLOW WILL SET OFF
VARIOUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE QUITE A VARIETY OF QPF SOLUTIONS AS SHOULD
BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SETUP...BUT OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY WET
WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY TO
THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGS MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY THOUGH...SO WE DID BACK OFF A BIT ON POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF
A WESTERLY FLOW BY EARLY IN THE NEXT WORK WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THERE WILL
BE SOME PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL...AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BUT SOME LOWER 80S
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. STRATUS OVER ALL TERMINALS AS OF 05Z IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH CIGS SLOWLY LOWERING FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SOME FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED. CIGS ARE MAINLY IFR TO
LIFR. CIGS EXPECTED TO FINALLY LIFT GRADUALLY BEGINNING AROUND
16Z...BUT MAY NOT RETURN TO VFR UNTIL AFTER 20Z DEPENDING ON
LOCATION. MVFR STRATUS TO RE-FORM FOR KHYR...KDLH AND KBRD AFTER
03Z TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 57 45 61 52 / 20 10 0 10
INL 69 50 76 54 / 20 10 10 10
BRD 70 51 77 63 / 20 10 20 30
HYR 67 49 75 59 / 40 10 20 20
ASX 59 43 68 51 / 40 10 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
402 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES.
REGIONAL RADAR HAS CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND AS IT MOVES TO
THE EAST IT HAS BEEN DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY TODAY AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. DESPITE
THE MAIN SIMILARITIES...THE MODELS HAVE SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS DRY BUT AS THE SUN COMES UP EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE HIGH
PLAINS CONVECTION COULD REACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BY AFTERNOON DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. THE HRRR AND
THE WRF BOTH BRING IN SOME CONVECTION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING
THE EVENING A LOW LEVEL JET STARTS UP A LITTLE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS
THAT THE SOUTH MIGHT BE A LITTLE WARMER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
THE BIGGEST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE DETERMINING CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SEVERE WEATHER.
THE OVERALL SITUATION CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EXHIBIT A DIGGING TROUGH IN
THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AS DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OCCURS. THIS COULD HELP SPARK
CONVECTION THURSDAY AND THIS CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL MOVE TO THE
EAST...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH SUPPORT AS THERE WILL BE ON
FRIDAY EVENING FROM A LOW-LEVEL JET AS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST
STARTS EJECTING SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY INTO THE HIGH/GREAT PLAINS.
FRIDAY NIGHT IS STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL JET...WITH THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BUT STILL WITH THE COLD
FRONT/TROUGH TO THE WEST. OVERALL...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SEVERE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT WE COULD SEE AT LEAST A STRONG STORM
FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...BUT FRIDAY DOES LOOK LIKE THE
MOST LIKELY DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY...SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS TO BE MORE DIFFICULT AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES TOP 15C
ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. IF THE ECMWF HAPPENS TO BE WRONG AND WE DO
POP THE CAP...THEN A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE
POSSIBLE...OF COURSE. FOR NOW...I WILL STICK TO JUST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY PERIODS FOR INCLUDING ANY ELEVATED SEVERE MENTION. MADE ONLY
SMALL CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FORECASTING IS
LOW...GIVEN THE MUDDLED FEATURES WE ARE DEALING WITH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1142 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LCL MVFR CIGS EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MT CHAIN TO THE TEXAS BORDER
BEFORE 14Z WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY GRADIENT...AS CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX BUILDS SOUTHWARD THRU TX PANHANDLE AND NE AND EAST CENTRAL
NM. RGV WESTWARD...DRY WITH SCT AOA 150...POTENTIAL FOR EASTERLY
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25KT THROUGH CANYONS BEFORE 12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1023 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014...
.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353 HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A STRONG
TO SEVERE CELL MAY STILL POP UP IN UNION COUNTY WHERE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY HAS EXTENDED FROM NW TO SE...BUT OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED DISCRETE
UPDRAFTS LONG ENOUGH TO CONGEAL INTO A HARDY MCS. THE RAP MODEL
DOES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE UNION COUNTY CELLS TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD WITH OCCASIONAL MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS TAKING
SHAPE...HOWEVER THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH BASICALLY KILLS
OFF THE CONVECTION TOWARD MIDNIGHT. LEFT SOME SCATTERED POPS IN
OVER UNION...HARDING...AND QUAY COUNTIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
ALL THAT HIGH EITHER WAY. HAVE STRIPPED WATCH HEADLINES FROM THE
ZFP PRODUCT...BUT OTHERWISE MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...233 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND MOVING ONTO THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. AS STORMS MOVE INTO A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT THEY WILL STRENGTHEN AND COULD TURN SEVERE IN THE
NORTHEAST. A STORM MOVING ONTO THE CA COAST WILL PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SCOUR
OUT SOME OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT CONVECTION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DRYING TREND THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULD BRING AN UPTICK IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
STORMS FIRING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT FOR THE MOST PART HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY TAME. AS THEY CONTINUE EAST THEY WILL MOVE INTO A BETTER
ENVIRONMENT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW.
WILL CARRY MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS IN COLFAX...UNION...MORA...SAN
MIGUEL AND HARDING COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE THE
WEST WILL REMAIN DRY. CUMULUS NOT BUILDING AS WELL OVER THE GILA
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS IT DID YESTERDAY.
MOSTLY ISOLATED POPS ACROSS FOR THE EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE LESS THAN RECENT
DAYS. THE WEST WILL REMAIN DRY AS WILL MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY VERY WARM...CLOSE TO OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND HELP TO REMOVE SOME OF THE MOISTURE IN
THE AIR. THIS WILL MEAN LESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHEAST AND NEAR THE TX BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES THURSDAY ALL AREAS...THEN DROP SOME
IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY AS WE BEGIN TO FEEL THE IMPACTS OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY WILL DROP A COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN NM NEXT TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A FRESH
BATCH OF MOISTURE TO AT LEAST THE EAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE CONVECTION. CHJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. NO
STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WETTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS TODAY AND TOMORROW EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. EXPECT STORMS TO INITIATE
ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THEN TRACK
EAST ON TO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS. ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW IN THESE
AREAS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AS A
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN
WINDS...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND MIN RH VALUES
DECREASING TO SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AREAWIDE WILL CAUSE CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS TO TREND UPWARD THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY.
THE PEAK DAY FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY WITH
SUPER HAINES AND RED FLAG CRITERIA DEVELOPING FOR SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS OF NEW MEXICO.
VENT RATES GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY VALUES ARE TRENDING
DOWNWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES ARE
GOOD IN THE EASTERN PLAINS BUT TREND TO POOR TO FAIR MID-TO-LATE
WEEK. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES REMAIN POOR WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NEXT WEEK FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXTENDED RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS THE BUILDING OF A UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW FOR
INCREASED MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD INCREASING IN WETTING RAINS. 01
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1023 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 353 HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A STRONG
TO SEVERE CELL MAY STILL POP UP IN UNION COUNTY WHERE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY HAS EXTENDED FROM NW TO SE...BUT OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED DISCRETE
UPDRAFTS LONG ENOUGH TO CONGEAL INTO A HARDY MCS. THE RAP MODEL
DOES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE UNION COUNTY CELLS TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD WITH OCCASIONAL MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS TAKING
SHAPE...HOWEVER THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH BASICALLY KILLS
OFF THE CONVECTION TOWARD MIDNIGHT. LEFT SOME SCATTERED POPS IN
OVER UNION...HARDING...AND QUAY COUNTIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
ALL THAT HIGH EITHER WAY. HAVE STRIPPED WATCH HEADLINES FROM THE
ZFP PRODUCT...BUT OTHERWISE MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...528 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCT SHRA WITH ISOLD TSRA EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MT CHAIN EASTWARD
WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT. MVFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE IN TSRA WITH HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45KT. POTENTIAL FOR LCL MVFR CIGS EAST SLOPES
CENTRAL MT CHAIN TO THE TEXAS BORDER AFT 06Z WITH LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY GRADIENT...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH. RGV WESTWARD...DRY WITH SCT AOA 150...POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25KT THROUGH
CANYONS 02-06Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...233 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND MOVING ONTO THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. AS STORMS MOVE INTO A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT THEY WILL STRENGTHEN AND COULD TURN SEVERE IN THE
NORTHEAST. A STORM MOVING ONTO THE CA COAST WILL PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SCOUR
OUT SOME OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT CONVECTION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DRYING TREND THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULD BRING AN UPTICK IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
STORMS FIRING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT FOR THE MOST PART HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY TAME. AS THEY CONTINUE EAST THEY WILL MOVE INTO A BETTER
ENVIRONMENT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW.
WILL CARRY MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS IN COLFAX...UNION...MORA...SAN
MIGUEL AND HARDING COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE THE
WEST WILL REMAIN DRY. CUMULUS NOT BUILDING AS WELL OVER THE GILA
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS IT DID YESTERDAY.
MOSTLY ISOLATED POPS ACROSS FOR THE EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE LESS THAN RECENT
DAYS. THE WEST WILL REMAIN DRY AS WILL MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY VERY WARM...CLOSE TO OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND HELP TO REMOVE SOME OF THE MOISTURE IN
THE AIR. THIS WILL MEAN LESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHEAST AND NEAR THE TX BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES THURSDAY ALL AREAS...THEN DROP SOME
IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY AS WE BEGIN TO FEEL THE IMPACTS OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY WILL DROP A COLD FRONT
INTO EASTERN NM NEXT TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A FRESH
BATCH OF MOISTURE TO AT LEAST THE EAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE CONVECTION. CHJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. NO
STORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WETTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS TODAY AND TOMORROW EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. EXPECT STORMS TO INITIATE
ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THEN TRACK
EAST ON TO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS. ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW IN THESE
AREAS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AS A
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN
WINDS...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND MIN RH VALUES
DECREASING TO SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AREAWIDE WILL CAUSE CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS TO TREND UPWARD THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY.
THE PEAK DAY FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY WITH
SUPER HAINES AND RED FLAG CRITERIA DEVELOPING FOR SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS OF NEW MEXICO.
VENT RATES GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY VALUES ARE TRENDING
DOWNWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES ARE
GOOD IN THE EASTERN PLAINS BUT TREND TO POOR TO FAIR MID-TO-LATE
WEEK. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES REMAIN POOR WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NEXT WEEK FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXTENDED RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS THE BUILDING OF A UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW FOR
INCREASED MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD INCREASING IN WETTING RAINS. 01
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
52
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
305 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM TUESDAY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING... YIELDING WEAKENING
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE RATHER MOIST AIRMASS (WITH PW`S OF
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES) COMBINED WITH WEAK IMPULSES IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND THE LATEST RAP SHOWING A LEAST SOME LINGERING WEAK
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT... WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST. EXPECT WE WILL SEE A COMBINATION OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUD SKIES TONIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
RIBBON OF 2.0" PWAT ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE 1000-700MB TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN WEDNESDAY 18Z-06 THURSDAY WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WHILE SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE
AS BETTER DPVA SKIRTS NORTH OF THE AREA...NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE LEE SIDE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BISECTING THE AREA WILL SERVE
AS A SECONDARY TRIGGER.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...WITH MARGINAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ~15KTS AND MLCAPE 1000 TO 1500...JUST SLIGHTLY
BETTER ENVIRONMENT THAN TODAY. WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN
PREVIOUS DAY...AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH A SEVERE THREAT...BUT
CAN NOT RULE AN ISOLATED WET DOWNBURST...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FIRST
ONE OR TWO STORMS OF THE DAY OR ALONG A WELL DEFINED SFC COLD POOL.
CONVECTION/POPS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY...
THE LATEST GFS HAS TRENDED WETTER ON FRIDAY AND FEATURES THE SFC
BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THE S/SE PART OF THE STATE ALONG WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
FEATURES MID LEVEL FLOW MORE NWLY VERSUS THE GFS AND IS SOMEWHAT
DRIER. GIVEN THE RECENT RUN CONSISTENCY...PREFER TO KEEP FRIDAY POPS
AROUND CLIMO...30 PERCENT OR LESS...AND IF THE RECENT GFS TRENDS
CONTINUE WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS W/SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES.
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN THE BOUNDARY LOCATION
TO OUR SOUTH...AND WITH ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE TSTM INTENSITY SHOULD ALSO BE LIMITED ON FRIDAY.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ON SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE
BEING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OLD BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SOUTH DURING THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH THE HIGH AND INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY WHILE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
PUSHED SOUTH AND WEST. AS A RESULT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR
CWA ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH AND WESTERN ZONES...WHILE
THE REST OF OUR CWA POPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS MAINTAINS A
RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WHILE THE ECMWF FEATURES NW FLOW ALONG WITH THE
PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH PERSISTING. UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT...WILL STICK CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP
CHANCES DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
AS FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR A SUBTLE DOWNWARD TREND LATE THIS WEEK AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SLIPS TO OUR SOUTH...THEN GUIDANCE SHOWS
NEAR-NORMAL LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 1410-1420M
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS (LOWS IN TEH UPPER 60S AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90).
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...
IFR -MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO ENVELOP CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...BEFORE A RELATIVELY QUICK LIFTING AND SCATTERING THROUGH
AROUND 14Z. IN ADDITION...A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES - THE
REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION - WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NC
THROUGH MIDDAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...THE COINCIDENCE OF
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT WITH THESE FEATURES WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT KRWI BETWEEN 16Z-20Z...BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FROM THE WEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGER TROUGH BOTH
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. INDEED...A FEW SHOWER/STORM CLUSTERS WITH
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
ENE ACROSS CENTRAL NC...BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z AT TRIAD TAF SITES...TO
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z FROM KRDU EASTWARD TO KRWI AND KFAY.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST INTO THE MID-UPPER
TEENS KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE VEERING TO WESTERLY AND LESSENING
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT
THE THREAT OF STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT...SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM THE STRATUS THIS MORNING...AND IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON-
EVENING STORMS.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS...
MAINLY AT KFAY AND KRWI THU AND FRI...THEN AREA-WIDE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WILL POSE THE PRIMARY THREAT OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
233 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM TUESDAY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING... YIELDING WEAKENING
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE RATHER MOIST AIRMASS (WITH PW`S OF
AROUND 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES) COMBINED WITH WEAK IMPULSES IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND THE LATEST RAP SHOWING A LEAST SOME LINGERING WEAK
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT... WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST. EXPECT WE WILL SEE A COMBINATION OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUD SKIES TONIGHT. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
RIBBON OF 2.0" PWAT ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE 1000-700MB TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN WEDNESDAY 18Z-06 THURSDAY WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WHILE SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE
AS BETTER DPVA SKIRTS NORTH OF THE AREA...NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE LEE SIDE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BISECTING THE AREA WILL SERVE
AS A SECONDARY TRIGGER.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...WITH MARGINAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ~15KTS AND MLCAPE 1000 TO 1500...JUST SLIGHTLY
BETTER ENVIRONMENT THAN TODAY. WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN
PREVIOUS DAY...AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH A SEVERE THREAT...BUT
CAN NOT RULE AN ISOLATED WET DOWNBURST...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FIRST
ONE OR TWO STORMS OF THE DAY OR ALONG A WELL DEFINED SFC COLD POOL.
CONVECTION/POPS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
THURSDAY...MID LEVEL S/W AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT EXITS CENTRAL
NC EARLY THURSDAY. W-NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL FILTER
SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE STABLE AIR INTO OUR REGION. STRONG HEATING AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY STILL INITIATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING/EXPANDING UPPER LEVEL ANTI-
CYCLONE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. MID LEVEL INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH
WARMING ALOFT WILL ACT AS A CAP ON THE ATMOSPHERE...LIMITING
CONVECTION INITIATION. GFS DEPICTS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW WHICH CAUSES
MOISTURE TO POOL ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS SCENARIO USUALLY
SUPPORTS SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE LEE SIDE TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...ECMWF A BIT DRIER AND SUGGEST NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED
CONVECTION...AGAIN MAINLY IN VICINITY OF THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH AND
ALONG THE INLAND-ADVANCING SEABREEZE. CURRENTLY FAVOR THE ECMWF
SOLUTION AS GFS HAS A TENDENCY TO BE TOO WET IN THIS TYPE OF
METEOROLOGICAL SITUATION. FOR NOW..WILL LIMIT POPS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAY SEE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AS
A S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM FLATTENS THE RIDGE. THE LOWER HEIGHTS
OVER CENTRAL NC IN CONJUNCTION WITH AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IN VICINITY OF A SHARPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH SUGGEST A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION AREAWIDE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. CAPPED POPS AT 30 PERCENT FOR NOW AS TIMING OF
PERTURBATIONS WILL BE THE KEY TO ENHANCED CONVECTIVE CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEEKEND WHEN AFTERNOON TEMPS MAY BE
IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...
IFR -MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO ENVELOP CENTRAL NC THIS
MORNING...BEFORE A RELATIVELY QUICK LIFTING AND SCATTERING THROUGH
AROUND 14Z. IN ADDITION...A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES - THE
REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION - WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NC
THROUGH MIDDAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING...THE COINCIDENCE OF
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT WITH THESE FEATURES WILL BE MOST
LIKELY AT KRWI BETWEEN 16Z-20Z...BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FROM THE WEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGER TROUGH BOTH
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. INDEED...A FEW SHOWER/STORM CLUSTERS WITH
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
ENE ACROSS CENTRAL NC...BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z AT TRIAD TAF SITES...TO
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z FROM KRDU EASTWARD TO KRWI AND KFAY.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST INTO THE MID-UPPER
TEENS KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE VEERING TO WESTERLY AND LESSENING
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT
THE THREAT OF STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT...SO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ASIDE FROM THE STRATUS THIS MORNING...AND IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON-
EVENING STORMS.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS...
MAINLY AT KFAY AND KRWI THU AND FRI...THEN AREA-WIDE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WILL POSE THE PRIMARY THREAT OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
400 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF SHELBY AND FAYETTE COUNTY
IN WEST TENNESSEE AT THIS TIME. WHAT IS LEFT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS JUST NORTH OF WHERE THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING THIS MORNING.
THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY TODAY AND CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY SOUTH OF THE
FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES.
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MORE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS IT
DOES IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY REDUCE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CHANCE FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EFFECT ON
THE WEATHER OVER THE MID-SOUTH WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET
SHRAS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS
TREND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT THUS WILL LEAVE MENTION OF VCSH THRU 13Z.
SOME FOG COULD STILL DEVELOP AT KMKL AND KTUP. OTHER THAN POSSIBLE
VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE FOG/SHRAS...EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 3-4Z. WILL CONTINUE
MENTION OF VCTS AT KMEM AND INTRODUCE THE WORDING AT KTUP. LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KRM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1227 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATE TO ADD POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG.
DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...OVERALL MOIST CONDITIONS AND CALM WINDS
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL. THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED AND SHOULD HOLD FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
JLH
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/
MIDAFTERNOON GOES VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER WEST TN...LIFTING EAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIED A FAIR AMOUNT OF CUMULUS AND
HIGHER MIDLEVEL CLOUDS. THIS HAS HAD DOWNWARD EFFECT ON DIURNAL
WARMUP...WITH WEST TN STILL IN THE 70S...EASTERN AR AND MOST OF
NORTH MS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD LIFT OUT THIS
BY MID EVENING...ENDING MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SUFFICIENT TO SUPPRESS MOST BUT LIKELY NOT ALL
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY/S RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH A MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF...PERHAPS INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF AN MCV FROM
CENTRAL PLAINS THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL BE EMBEDDED IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN CONTINUED WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH FRIDAY.
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED OVER GA SATURDAY. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INDICATE REDUCED
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD ON SUNDAY...LIMITING DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF NEXT WEEK...UNDER A
593DM 500MB HEIGHT RIDGE. ECMWF HAS JOINED RECENT GFS SOLUTIONS OF
SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER SHIFTING TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
BY WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
MIDSOUTH DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET
SHRAS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS
TREND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT THUS WILL LEAVE MENTION OF VCSH THRU 13Z.
SOME FOG COULD STILL DEVELOP AT KMKL AND KTUP. OTHER THAN POSSIBLE
VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THE FOG/SHRAS...EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 3-4Z. WILL CONTINUE
MENTION OF VCTS AT KMEM AND INTRODUCE THE WORDING AT KTUP. LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KRM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
429 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
UNLIKE YESTERDAY WHERE QUASIGEOSTROPHIC SUBSIDENCE CREATED A
RATHER HOSTILE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FAVORABLE HEATING TIME NO SUCH SUBSIDENCE IS PREDICTED TODAY. ON
THE CONTRARY RAP QG VERTICAL MOTIONS SHOW WEAK ASCENT PRESENTLY
OVER COLORADO WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MAXIMUM
HEATING TIME. INDEED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WHICH BLENDS NICELY WITH
THE CIRA/WRF FORECAST SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONSEQUENTLY A MORE
NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. GPS
MEASURED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL HOVERING AROUND AN
INCH EAST OF THE HILLS AND VERTICAL WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION IN MANY PARTS OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST INSTABILITY ON THE OTHER HAND IS
RATHER CURIOUS AND WILL PROBABLY BE THE MAIN DRIVING FACTOR IN
WHICH AREAS GET WHAT. LOCATIONS EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR SHOULD
BE ABLE TO HOLD ONTO HIGH CAPE VALUES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS HIGHER OUT THERE. CLOSER
TO THE MOUNTAINS THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING PLUMMETING CAPE VALUES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE IN PART A REFLECTION OF THE
POST-CONVECTIVE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH MOUNTAIN-INITIATED
CONVECTION OR DUE DRIER AIR MIXING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
THE WEST. KGJT AND KSLC RAOBS WERE PRETTY DRY LAST EVENING AND THE
GPS MEASURED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THERE ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF THE VALUES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AT 10Z.
IF CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO FIRE ON THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
MORNING CAN TAP INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR PRESENTLY RESIDING OVER
THE URBAN CORRIDOR SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD EXIST OVER
THE THERE DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IF MIXING
OCCURS TOO EARLY THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LESSENED. AS IS THE CASE WITH THE SEVERE THREAT...FLOODING
CONCERNS IN THE FOOTHILLS...ESPECIALLY IN THE BURN SCARS...COULD
BE ELEVATED IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS IF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY CAN TAP INTO THE MOISTURE LADEN AIR. TOUGH TO MAKE A
CALL ON THESE DETAILS AT PRESENT BUT THE SITUATION CERTAINLY BEARS
WATCHING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER
THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WITH THE FOCUS FOR MUCH OF THE TSTM
ACTIVITY IN THE AFTN AND EVENING WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE. IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THERE MAY BE AN
ISOLATED HIGH BASED TSTM OR TWO BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT. FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...
RUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN CO FRIDAY AFTN. OVERALL THE AMS WILL BE
FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WL GO WITH 10-20 PERCENT POPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS...HIGHEST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF DENVER.
OVER THE WEEKEND...A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND 90. A BROAD RIDGE WILL EXTEND FM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IT WILL REMAIN DRY
ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NERN CO MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH. AS A
RESULT...IT MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF TSTMS FM THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE
EASTWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THUNDERSTORM
THREAT SHOULD BE EARLIER TODAY AND A BIT GREATER AT THE TERMINALS
THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE THREAT POSSIBLY ENDING BEFORE 00Z.
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED AT KDEN AND KAPA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
KBJC SEEING EITHER LIGHTER NORTHEAST OR NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF WESTERLY WINDS IF INITIAL WAVE OF CONVECTION
COMES OFF THE MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1000 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
AND CREEP THROUGH ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN ON
FRIDAY AND REMAIN NEARBY HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO REACH OUR REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SKY OVER OUR REGION WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY AT MID MORNING. THERE
WERE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN CAROLINE COUNTY,
MARYLAND. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH DEW POINT
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, SO IT WAS QUITE HUMID.
WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING, THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING SLOWLY
FROM THE WEST TO ENHANCE THE LIFT.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THAT THE SHOWERS ON THE MIDDLE
DELMARVA WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD, EXPAND AND INTENSIFY DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 2 INCHES SO
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY IN SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE CDFNT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACRS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WILL START WITH LIKELY POPS ERLY AND TAPER TO CHC BY THE END OF
THE PD. PRECIP SHUD BE WINDING DOWN FROM NW TO SE BY DAYBREAK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5-WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAK TROUGHING, ZONAL-ISH FLOW, ACROSS THE
REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO
TRANSITION TO RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND BUT THEN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
INTO ANOTHER BOUT OF FAST ZONAL FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD...MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED AS THIS OCCURS.
THURSDAY...POOR MANS ENSEMBLE SHOWS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY
MOVING THROUGH AS THE BERMUDA RIDGING STARTS GETTING AMPED UP. THE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SLOWLY LIMPING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD SLOW THE FRONTS EXIT FURTHER SO WE CONTINUE
WITH THE CHANCE POPS, SLOWLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES A BIT OF A QUESTION TOO, MAINLY WEST OF I-95. AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE IS SOME WEAK CAA TAKING PLACE BUT
SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO BE MORE WESTERLY FOR A TIME. THE DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT WOULD HELP TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES BUT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING
OVERHEAD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT THEN CURRENTLY EXPECTED AND ULTIMATELY KEEP
TEMPERATURES TEMPERED DOWN A BIT. NOT TOO CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME
WITH HIGHS TOMORROW BUT DID UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A COUPLE DEGREES
ACROSS THE WEST GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY AND WINDS BACK AROUND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. MUCH
LIKE OVER THE PAST WEEKEND WE WILL STILL HAVE THE WEAK LINGERING
TROUGH NEARBY WITH A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR INTERIOR AREAS AND BETTER HEATING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
ON THURSDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW OCCURRING.
SATURDAY - TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS RIDGING BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL HAVE
SHIFTED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION PUTTING US IN THE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME RING OF FIRE FLOW REGIME. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON SO WE CONTINUE WITH THE
CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING EACH DAY AS HEIGHTS
RISE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED BACK
INTO THE REGION. THERE LOOK TO BE A COUPLE DAYS WHERE WE COULD
EXCEED 90F.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MVFR CEILINGS WERE CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES AT MID
MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURG THE
ERLY AFTN AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING CDFNT FROM THE W.
THE APPROACHING CDFNT WILL BRING SHRA/TSRA. SOME OF THE RAIN CUD
BE HEAVY AND THERE COULD BE A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR AS SOME SHOWERS
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE BEYOND THAT EVEN AFTER THE RAIN ENDS.
A GENL S WIND IS EXPECTED, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS, PSBLY A BIT
HIGHER DURG THE AFTN AND OF COURSE HIGHER IN ANY TSRA.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PDS
WITH A GENL S FLOW AHEAD OF A CDFNT THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE. SHWRS AND TSRA
ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE CFP.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND
THEN VEER TOWARDS SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL DECREASE
TO AROUND 2-3 FEET BY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT
REMAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCAL FLOODING AS THE PW VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES.
AS A COLD FRONT NEARS, THE FLOW IS GENERALLY PARALLEL TO IT WHICH
INTRODUCES THE RISK FOR TRAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
RATHER EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS, AND ANY TRAINING OR MULTICELL
CLUSTERS WILL ENHANCE THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT. THE ARRIVAL
OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND ALLOW FOR MORE FOCUSED DOWNPOURS. THIS LOOKS TO
INITIALLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES, THEN IT GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EAST DURING THE EVENING. THE 1-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
SHOWS NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
WITH VALUES AT OR LESS THAN 2.00 INCHES. THESE SIMILAR AREAS ON
THE 3-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAVE VALUES BETWEEN ABOUT 2.00 AND
2.50 INCHES. IT IS THESE LOCATIONS AND THE MORE URBANIZED SPOTS
THAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS NOT BEING ISSUED ATTM DUE TO SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCH
CONVECTION DEVELOPS /AREAL COVERAGE/ AND WHERE IF BECOMES FOCUSED
THE LONGEST. A MENTION HOWEVER REMAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
MARINE...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
HYDROLOGY...GORSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
613 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AND
CREEP THROUGH ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN ON FRIDAY
AND REMAIN NEARBY HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM LOOKS TO REACH OUR REGION BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONTINUE TO PARE BACK THE ERLY POPS AS PRECIP REMAINS WELL BACK IN
PA. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER FOR THE EARLY UPDATE.
LTST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE PRECIP WELL BACK IN WRN PA MOVG GENLY
NEWD. VERY LITTLE EWD PROGRESSION WAS NOTED. THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING THINGS WELL. PRECIP REALLY DOESN`T ARRIVE IN OUR CWA UNTIL
THE LATER MRNG HOURS WITH THE FRONT DURG THE LATE AFTN INTO THE EVEN
HRS.
A S/WV WILL ENHANCE UVV, BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING IS N AND W AND
BEST CHCS FOR HVY RAIN ARE AS WELL. WHILE IT DOES APPEAR THERE
COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING, THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES ATTM.
THE CDFNT WILL SLOWLY WORK EWD TODAY THRU THIS EVE AND PRECIP CHCS
WILL INCREASE FRO W TO E.
GUID TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE AND WERE GENLY FOLLOWED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE CDFNT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACRS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL
START WITH LIKELY POPS ERLY AND TAPER TO CHC BY THE END OF THE PD.
PRECIP SHUD BE WINDING DOWN FROM NW TO SE BY DAYBREAK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
5-WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAK TROUGHING, ZONAL-ISH FLOW, ACROSS THE
REGION AT THE START OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO
TRANSITION TO RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND BUT THEN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
INTO ANOTHER BOUT OF FAST ZONAL FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD...MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED AS THIS OCCURS.
THURSDAY...POOR MANS ENSEMBLE SHOWS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY
MOVING THROUGH AS THE BERMUDA RIDGING STARTS GETTING AMPED UP. THE
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SLOWLY LIMPING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD SLOW THE FRONTS EXIT FURTHER SO WE CONTINUE
WITH THE CHANCE POPS, SLOWLY DECREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES A BIT OF A QUESTION TOO, MAINLY WEST OF I-95. AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE IS SOME WEAK CAA TAKING PLACE BUT SURFACE
WINDS LOOK TO BE MORE WESTERLY FOR A TIME. THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
WOULD HELP TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES BUT
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THEN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED AND ULTIMATELY KEEP TEMPERATURES TEMPERED DOWN A BIT.
NOT TOO CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME WITH HIGHS TOMORROW BUT DID UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE BY A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST GIVEN THE ABOVE
SCENARIO.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY AND WINDS BACK AROUND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. MUCH
LIKE OVER THE PAST WEEKEND WE WILL STILL HAVE THE WEAK LINGERING
TROUGH NEARBY WITH A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR INTERIOR AREAS AND BETTER HEATING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN ON
THURSDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW OCCURRING.
SATURDAY - TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND
AS THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS RIDGING BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL HAVE SHIFTED WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION PUTTING US IN THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME RING OF
FIRE FLOW REGIME. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND CONVECTION ARE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON SO WE CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING EACH DAY AS HEIGHTS RISE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED BACK INTO THE REGION.
THERE LOOK TO BE A COUPLE DAYS WHERE WE COULD EXCEED 90F.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES AND MANY ARE MVFR AS A
RESULT, WHILE SOME REMAIN VFR. EXPECT THE OVERALL TREND TO BE
DOWNWARD TO MVFR AND IFR THRU THE MRNG HOURS. THEN THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURG THE ERLY AFTN AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING CDFNT FROM THE W.
THE CDFNT WILL ARRIVE LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE AND BRING SHRA/TSRA. SOME
OF THE RAIN CUD BE HEAVY AND THERE COULD BE A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR
WITH THE FRONT. SOME SHOWERS WILL THEN LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE BEYOND THAT EVEN AFTER THE RAIN ENDS.
A GENL S WIND IS EXPECTED, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS, PSBLY A BIT
HIGHER DURG THE AFTN AND OF COURSE HIGHER IN ANY TSRA.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PDS
WITH A GENL S FLOW AHEAD OF A CDFNT THAT WILL CROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE. SHWRS AND TSRA
ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE CFP.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
WATERS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND THEN
VEER TOWARDS SOUTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL DECREASE TO
AROUND 2-3 FEET BY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT REMAINS
WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCAL FLOODING AS THE PW VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES.
AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES, THE FLOW IS GENERALLY PARALLEL TO IT WHICH
INTRODUCES THE RISK FOR TRAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS, AND ANY TRAINING OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL ENHANCE
THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT. THE ARRIVAL OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
FRONT MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ALLOW FOR MORE
FOCUSED DOWNPOURS. THIS LOOKS TO INITIALLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY, THEN IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING
THE EVENING. THE 1-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH VALUES AT OR LESS THAN 2.00
INCHES. THESE SIMILAR AREAS ON THE 3-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAVE
VALUES BETWEEN ABOUT 2.00 AND 2.50 INCHES. IT IS THESE LOCATIONS AND
THE MORE URBANIZED SPOTS THAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT BEING ISSUED ATTM DUE TO SOME QUESTION ON
HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS /AREAL COVERAGE/ AND WHERE IF BECOMES FOCUSED
THE LONGEST. A MENTION HOWEVER REMAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
MARINE...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
626 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2014
.Near Term [Rest of Today]...
A convective cluster has developed to the west of our area in the
past 2-3 hours along a low-level convergence zone that coincides
with a noticeable thetae and dewpoint gradient. At 10Z, the
thunderstorms on the leading edge of the developing cold pool were
less than 50 miles from western Walton County, with additional
scattered thunderstorm development occurring ahead of that. EVX
radar has shown some degree of organization with these storms,
with about 30-40 knots of rear-to-front flow in the mid levels of
the atmosphere, impinging on the newly formed line of storms.
Meanwhile, the latest RAP analysis shows about 1500-2500 j/kg of
MLCAPE ahead of the convective cluster in our Florida zones with
very little CINH and an abundance of low-level moisture.
Therefore, we expect the thunderstorms to be organized in clusters
or line segments and progress across the southern part of our
forecast area this morning - generally along and to the south of
the low-level thetae gradient in the more unstable air mass. The
surface to mid-level delta thetae values are quite high in the
same area per RAP analysis (25-30K), which suggests an environment
somewhat favorable for strong downbursts. Given the aforementioned
environment, elevated radar velocities on KEVX, and observed gusts
upstream in the 30-40 knot range already, there is some potential
for a few severe storms this morning. Damaging wind gusts would be
the main threat. Most of the gusts with stronger storms should be
in the 30-40 knot range, but we can`t rule out some sporadic
instances of higher gusts and/or observed damage. PoPs have been
increased into the 60-80% range in most of our Florida zones ahead
of the approaching storms.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] A cluster of thunderstorms should move from
west to east across portions of the area this morning, especially
in the Florida Panhandle. This means storms would be most likely
to affect ECP and TLH, and to a lesser extent VLD. The TLH and ECP
TAFs will be amended to indicate prevailing +TSRA with gusty
winds in the 30-40 knot range with the latest expected timing.
Otherwise, we will continue to indicate the redevelopment of
scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening with a longer
period of VCTS. Outside of thunderstorms, VFR should prevail.
&&
.Prev Discussion [327 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
Not an easy forecast for the short term as a subtle ridge in the low
to mid-levels will influence precipitation and temperatures through
the short term. Coverage will be highly dependent on sporadic
regions of mid-level dry air rotating around the ridge in the
Southern GoM. This is evident in soundings as TBW had PWATs around
1.4in while TLH came out near 1.75in on the 24/12z and 25/00z
RAOBs. For the forecast, went mostly with the MAV for PoPs and
temps on Thursday, and the MET/Euro on Friday when more moisture will
be available for afternoon convection. This will lead to near
climatology PoPs on Thursday, and just at-or-above climatology on
Friday. Temperatures will be dependent on timing of convection and
any cloud debris generated from offshore convection. Expecting mid
90s for most locations, except near Dothan on Thursday (low 90s),
and low 90s on Friday as a result of slightly higher PoPs.
.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
Deep layer ridging and afternoon seabreeze convection will dominate
the extended range forecast. Afternoon highs will climb into the
middle to upper 90s each day.
.Marine...
A fairly typical summertime pattern will result in light winds and
low seas outside of convection throughout the next several days.
.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected.
.Hydrology...
Rainfall totals will average 1 to 2 inches through the next 7 days
with isolated higher amounts. With rivers below bank full stage,
this rainfall is not expected to cause significant rises on area
rivers.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 94 74 94 74 93 / 70 30 40 30 50
Panama City 88 77 89 77 90 / 80 20 40 30 40
Dothan 93 73 91 72 93 / 40 30 40 30 40
Albany 95 74 94 72 94 / 30 30 40 30 30
Valdosta 97 73 95 72 92 / 40 30 40 30 40
Cross City 93 76 93 74 91 / 50 20 40 30 40
Apalachicola 89 78 89 76 89 / 80 20 30 30 40
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...WESTON
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1013 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1013 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014
Morning upper air analysis shows two short-waves of interest...one
over Wisconsin and another over eastern Oklahoma. Central Illinois
will remain between these two features today, with the Wisconsin
wave brushing by just to the north. Latest satellite imagery shows
sunny skies across the area: however, CU-rule suggests SCT-BKN
clouds developing this afternoon across the northern and eastern
zones. HRRR and RAP models indicate scattered convection
developing after 17z across mainly northern Illinois into central
and northern Indiana associated with the Wisconsin wave. Have
updated POPs to feature scattered wording along/north of I-74 this
afternoon, with a dry forecast along and southwest of a Rushville
to Shelbyville line.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 704 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014
Mostly clear skies across central and southeast Illinois this
morning with only isolated pockets of light fog around the region.
Scattered cloud cover expected to develop late in the morning with
cloud bases and coverage likely to remain in VFR category.
Isolated TSRA possible in the afternoon/evening but probability
too low for mention in TAFs. Cloud cover to decrease after 02z.
Winds WNW 4-8 kts until 02z...becoming E-NE around 05 kts.
Onton
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 314 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT IN THE FORECAST YET AGAIN. A BIT OF A DRY DAY
FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT FOR
SOME SHOWERS, MAINLY TO THE NORTH AS ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE
MIDWEST NORTH OF ILX. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SHOWER, BUT WILL SEE
MORE DRY THAN WET FOR TODAY. ECMWF DROPPING THE SECOND WAVE
TONIGHT IN FAVOR OF A DRIER TOMORROW, GFS WEAKER WITH THE
REPRESENTATION ALOFT, BUT HOLDING ON TO SFC QPF... AND THE NAM
HOLDING ON TO THE QUICK SHORTWAVE AND A WET THURSDAY. THIS MUCH OF
A STRUGGLE IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS MUCH THE SAME TUNE. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK A TROF DIGGING IN
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS SETTING UP FOR A BIGGER PATTERN
SHIFT. SAME PATTERN SHIFT, THOUGH SIMILAR IN THE GFS AND THE NAM
TO THE END OF NAM`S RUN, HAS DIVERGENCE BTWN THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS SOLUTIONS. THOUGH THE DIFFERENCES MAY BE SUBTLE, THE IMPACT TO
ILX IS SIGNIFICANT. FORECAST ONCE AGAIN DOMINATED BY SMALL
POPS...THE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL INTO THE EXTENDED.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
NOT WILLING TO GIVE UP THE POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HOT AND
HUMID AIRMASS AND ANOTHER WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE
FA AND BRING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TS. BEST CHANCES TO THE
NORTH AND EAST, BUT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOT HANDLED WELL IN THE
SHORT TERM AT ALL FOR THE LAST WEEK AND DOES NOT TAKE MUCH IN THIS
AIRMASS. ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINS. ISSUE FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
WITH THE WAVE IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
ABSORBED THE SECONDARY WAVE INTO THE IMPULSE FOR TODAY, BUT THE
NAM KEEPS THEM SEPARATE. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IN WV SAT IMAGERY
BLURRING THE PICTURE BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE OVER MN/IA THIS MORNING.
POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW...NOT BRINGING THEM UP, NOR
DROPPING THEM. NEXT TWO RUNS WILL LIKELY SHAKE OUT SOME OF THAT
DETAIL.
LONG TERM... FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RIGHT NOW, CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH THERE IS DOUBT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
DEPENDING ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND
STRENGTH OF SOME WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC. SUNDAY, MODELS ARE
HINTING AT THE NEXT MAJOR STORM SYSTEM SPINNING UP AS THAT TROF
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND GOES TO A
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE
END OF THE WEEKEND. GFS IS BEGINNING TO SHOW DEEPENING OF THE SFC
LOW, BUT BOTH ECMWF AND LESSER SO THE GFS, ARE HAVING AN ISSUE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. AT THIS POINT, THE BULK OF THAT SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF ILX, AND WILL PROBABLY SEE CONTINUED STORMY
IMPACTS FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE...DEPENDING ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE WAVE ALOFT GETS.
SHOULD THE GFS HOLD OUT, THE IMPACTS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH A
STRONGER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STORMS FOR TUESDAY.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1141 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. SOME CONVECTION IS STARTING TO POP UP BEHIND THE LINE THAT
WENT THROUGH THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS SHOULD START DECREASING RAPIDLY AS THE SUN
SETS THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 921 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THE TIMING OF THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. EXPECT SOME
REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS LINE AS THE TEMPERATURES RISE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WERE NOT VERY CONSISTENT ON ANY
TIMING AND LOCATION OF WHERE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR...SO LEFT THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION FORECAST
MORE GENERIC AND DID NOT TRY TO TIME ANY FEATURES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FINALLY SHOWING SOME WESTWARD
PROGRESSION THIS MORNING AND IS STARTING TO SHOW A BIT MORE COVERAGE.
HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. ALSO BROUGHT AN END TO THE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHWEST EARLY AS
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IS UNLIKELY AND THE FRONT AND LIFT PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST. MAY NEED TO END PRECIP EARLIER FURTHER EAST AS THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING MOVES EAST. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 07Z FEATURE SOME
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAWN HOURS. THE FRONT OR RATHER MORE OF JUST A WEAK
BOUNDARY WITH LITTLE GRADIENT LIES JUST TO THE WEST THROUGH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST INTO THE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH A WEAKENING OVERALL TREND TO THIS
FEATURE...HAVE DROPPED MOST POPS TO CHANCE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE DAY. THE INSTABILITY REMAINS SO WILL GO WITH A COVERAGE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND
A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON. PROBLEM IS THAT
THE HI RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND THE SREF BRING THE FRONT
THROUGH A BIT EARLY BASED ON TRENDS AND HAVE GONE WITH A LATE MORNING
PASSAGE AND WILL KEEP THUNDER CHANCES IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING BUT CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION.
THIS WILL ALSO BRING COOLING TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE LOWER 80S.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...PRECIP WILL END IN THE EAST RATHER EARLY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL ESPECIALLY...WILL BE LIKELY
TO SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE PUT THIS IN THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.
THE BRIEF RIDGING SHOULD HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AND KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
DISTURBANCE BUT OVERALL...THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY AT THIS
TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
A NW/SE ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE
SITUATED JUST TO OUR SW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH MORE
HUMID/UNSTABLE AIR NEAR AND SW OF THE BOUNDARY...AND SOMEWHAT LESS
HUMID AIR OVER THE JKL FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT OR PREVENT
PRECIP FOR OUR AREA INITIALLY. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NE AND
DISSOLVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THEN
INCREASING FOR OUR AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS TIME...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SE CONUS. HOWEVER...IT
WILL LIKELY BE A DIRTY RIDGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR OUR LOCAL AREA
SHOW A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT CAP...INCREASED MOISTURE IN FLOW OFF
THE GULF...WEAK LAPSE RATES...AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS TROPICAL
ATMOSPHERE WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH A
DIURNAL TREND. HAVE USED 20-30 PERCENT POPS EACH PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD START TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF IS SHOWN TO
BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES AND MAY SEND A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARD US BY
MIDWEEK...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING OR HOW
WELL THE FRONT HOLDS TOGETHER. WITH MIXED SIGNALS CONCERNING THE
FAVORABILITY OF CONDITIONS FOR PRECIP...THE RESULTING FORECAST WILL
BE A CONTINUING LOW POP WITH A DIURNAL TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
SOME LOWER CEILINGS ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING AS SOME SHOWERS ARE
HEADING EAST. HAVE PUT SOME IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS IN THROUGH 16Z TO
18Z AT MOST TAF SITES. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15
KNOTS POSSIBLE. THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM TODAY AND CALM WINDS
TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE PUT THIS
IN ALL THE TAF SITES STARTING AT THE 01Z TO 03Z PERIOD AND INCREASING
IN COVERAGE TOWARDS DAWN.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
921 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THE TIMING OF THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. EXPECT SOME
REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS LINE AS THE TEMPERATURES RISE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WERE NOT VERY CONSISTENT ON ANY
TIMING AND LOCATION OF WHERE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR...SO LEFT THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION FORECAST
MORE GENERIC AND DID NOT TRY TO TIME ANY FEATURES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FINALLY SHOWING SOME WESTWARD
PROGRESSION THIS MORNING AND IS STARTING TO SHOW A BIT MORE COVERAGE.
HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. ALSO BROUGHT AN END TO THE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHWEST EARLY AS
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IS UNLIKELY AND THE FRONT AND LIFT PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST. MAY NEED TO END PRECIP EARLIER FURTHER EAST AS THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING MOVES EAST. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 07Z FEATURE SOME
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAWN HOURS. THE FRONT OR RATHER MORE OF JUST A WEAK
BOUNDARY WITH LITTLE GRADIENT LIES JUST TO THE WEST THROUGH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST INTO THE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH A WEAKENING OVERALL TREND TO THIS
FEATURE...HAVE DROPPED MOST POPS TO CHANCE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE DAY. THE INSTABILITY REMAINS SO WILL GO WITH A COVERAGE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND
A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON. PROBLEM IS THAT
THE HI RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND THE SREF BRING THE FRONT
THROUGH A BIT EARLY BASED ON TRENDS AND HAVE GONE WITH A LATE MORNING
PASSAGE AND WILL KEEP THUNDER CHANCES IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING BUT CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION.
THIS WILL ALSO BRING COOLING TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE LOWER 80S.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...PRECIP WILL END IN THE EAST RATHER EARLY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL ESPECIALLY...WILL BE LIKELY
TO SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE PUT THIS IN THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.
THE BRIEF RIDGING SHOULD HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AND KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
DISTURBANCE BUT OVERALL...THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY AT THIS
TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
A NW/SE ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE
SITUATED JUST TO OUR SW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH MORE
HUMID/UNSTABLE AIR NEAR AND SW OF THE BOUNDARY...AND SOMEWHAT LESS
HUMID AIR OVER THE JKL FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT OR PREVENT
PRECIP FOR OUR AREA INITIALLY. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NE AND
DISSOLVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THEN
INCREASING FOR OUR AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS TIME...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SE CONUS. HOWEVER...IT
WILL LIKELY BE A DIRTY RIDGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR OUR LOCAL AREA
SHOW A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT CAP...INCREASED MOISTURE IN FLOW OFF
THE GULF...WEAK LAPSE RATES...AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS TROPICAL
ATMOSPHERE WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH A
DIURNAL TREND. HAVE USED 20-30 PERCENT POPS EACH PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD START TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF IS SHOWN TO
BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES AND MAY SEND A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARD US BY
MIDWEEK...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING OR HOW
WELL THE FRONT HOLDS TOGETHER. WITH MIXED SIGNALS CONCERNING THE
FAVORABILITY OF CONDITIONS FOR PRECIP...THE RESULTING FORECAST WILL
BE A CONTINUING LOW POP WITH A DIURNAL TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
SOME LOWER CEILINGS ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING AS SOME SHOWERS ARE
HEADING EAST. HAVE PUT SOME IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS IN THROUGH 16Z TO
18Z AT MOST TAF SITES. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15
KNOTS POSSIBLE. THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM TODAY AND CALM WINDS
TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE PUT THIS
IN ALL THE TAF SITES STARTING AT THE 01Z TO 03Z PERIOD AND INCREASING
IN COVERAGE TOWARDS DAWN.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
736 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FINALLY SHOWING SOME WESTWARD
PROGRESSION THIS MORNING AND IS STARTING TO SHOW A BIT MORE COVERAGE.
HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. ALSO BROUGHT AN END TO THE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHWEST EARLY AS
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IS UNLIKELY AND THE FRONT AND LIFT PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST. MAY NEED TO END PRECIP EARLIER FURTHER EAST AS THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING MOVES EAST. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 07Z FEATURE SOME
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE DAWN HOURS. THE FRONT OR RATHER MORE OF JUST A WEAK
BOUNDARY WITH LITTLE GRADIENT LIES JUST TO THE WEST THROUGH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST INTO THE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH A WEAKENING OVERALL TREND TO THIS
FEATURE...HAVE DROPPED MOST POPS TO CHANCE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE DAY. THE INSTABILITY REMAINS SO WILL GO WITH A COVERAGE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND
A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON. PROBLEM IS THAT
THE HI RESOLUTION MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND THE SREF BRING THE FRONT
THROUGH A BIT EARLY BASED ON TRENDS AND HAVE GONE WITH A LATE MORNING
PASSAGE AND WILL KEEP THUNDER CHANCES IN THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
DAYTIME HEATING BUT CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION.
THIS WILL ALSO BRING COOLING TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE LOWER 80S.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...PRECIP WILL END IN THE EAST RATHER EARLY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
TONIGHT AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL ESPECIALLY...WILL BE LIKELY
TO SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE PUT THIS IN THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.
THE BRIEF RIDGING SHOULD HOLD ON A BIT LONGER THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AND KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK
DISTURBANCE BUT OVERALL...THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY AT THIS
TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
A NW/SE ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE
SITUATED JUST TO OUR SW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH MORE
HUMID/UNSTABLE AIR NEAR AND SW OF THE BOUNDARY...AND SOMEWHAT LESS
HUMID AIR OVER THE JKL FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT OR PREVENT
PRECIP FOR OUR AREA INITIALLY. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NE AND
DISSOLVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THEN
INCREASING FOR OUR AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS TIME...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SE CONUS. HOWEVER...IT
WILL LIKELY BE A DIRTY RIDGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR OUR LOCAL AREA
SHOW A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT CAP...INCREASED MOISTURE IN FLOW OFF
THE GULF...WEAK LAPSE RATES...AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS TROPICAL
ATMOSPHERE WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH A
DIURNAL TREND. HAVE USED 20-30 PERCENT POPS EACH PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD START TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF IS SHOWN TO
BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES AND MAY SEND A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARD US BY
MIDWEEK...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING OR HOW
WELL THE FRONT HOLDS TOGETHER. WITH MIXED SIGNALS CONCERNING THE
FAVORABILITY OF CONDITIONS FOR PRECIP...THE RESULTING FORECAST WILL
BE A CONTINUING LOW POP WITH A DIURNAL TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
SOME LOWER CEILINGS ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING AS SOME SHOWERS ARE
HEADING EAST. HAVE PUT SOME IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS IN THROUGH 16Z TO
18Z AT MOST TAF SITES. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15
KNOTS POSSIBLE. THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM TODAY AND CALM WINDS
TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO SOME EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE PUT THIS
IN ALL THE TAF SITES STARTING AT THE 01Z TO 03Z PERIOD AND INCREASING
IN COVERAGE TOWARDS DAWN.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
940 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION ALONG OUR SOUTHERN ZONES OUT
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS SPREADING A REGION OF LIFT TO OUR
AREA. HRRR IS CURRENTLY DEPICTING A LINE OF CONVECTION THAT WILL
INITIATE AROUND THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WHICH LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST. NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014/
AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR
MVFR CEILINGS AT KTYR. THESE CEILINGS MAY AFFECT PARTS OF EAST
TEXAS BEFORE LIFTING. THE COMBINATION OF A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...A VERY RICH SUPPLY
OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...AND UPPER DISTURBANCES AROUND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE FOUR STATE AREA
FROM THE WEST...ALONG WITH WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN AND NEAR THE INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD ON
THURSDAY PROVIDING A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH WET SOILS AND CONTINUED SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY TO LIGHT SOUTH INCREASING TO 6 TO
12 KNOTS THROUGH 26/00Z THEN REMAINING LIGHT SOUTH LESS THAN 7
KNOTS. /06/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL KEY FACTORS ARE IN PLAY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING SHOWS MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN MOST ZONES AND THIS IS AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
WHICH SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...A MYRIAD OF BOUNDARIES EXIST
FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION AS WELL AS A REMNANT MCV SPINNING IN THE
VICINITY OF PARIS TEXAS AND HUGO OKLAHOMA. UNABLE TO LOCATE THE
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE LATEST SFC
ANALYSIS BUT LATEST HOURLY 30AGL THETAE ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
WHATS LEFT OF IT HAS MOVED NORTH OF OUR REGION. 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF OUR REGION
WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS. THIS PUTS OUR REGION IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF PVA DESPITE
WEAK DIVQ ALOFT. PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA WILL
COME NORTHWARD TODAY...MAKING IT AT LEAST TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY
AFTERNOON AND ALL THIS WITH JUST A LITTLE HEATING SHOULD RESULT
IN DESCENT STORM COVERAGE TODAY. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO HIGH END CHANCE/LIKELY VARIETY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR...TAPERING POPS BACK TO CHANCE VARIETY ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NORTHERN ZONES.
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AND SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVHD DURING THE DAY THURSDAY ALBEIT
FILLING SLIGHTLY AS IT COMES OUR WAY. THUS...EXPECTING ANOTHER
STRONG PRECIP COVERAGE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS WARRANTED
ACROSS OUR SE ZONE TAPERING POPS BACK TO CHANCE VARIETY ACROSS OUR
NW ZONES. A REMNANT SHEAR AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE ECMWF HAS BACKED
OFF ITS SUGGESTION OF A RETROGRADING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COMING
OUR WAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO SHUT DOWN THE CONVECTION...HAD
TO RAISE POPS TO CHANCE VARIETY FOR FRIDAY AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT...ON SATURDAY AS WELL.
OTHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY...IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE
WILL BEGIN TO SEE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDING EASTWARD FROM THE
UPPER RED RIVER BASIN OF NW TX INTO SW OK AND THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND FOR OUR REGION WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...OBVIOUSLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL BE TIED TO THE
COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION OUR AREA RECEIVES.
GIVEN THAT WE EXPECT BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE TODAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BOTH DAYS...BUT ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND LOWER TO MID 90S LOOK GOOD AS WELL FOR OUR RAIN FREE
DAYS COMING UP NEXT WEEK.
AS WITNESSED ON TUESDAY...GIVEN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...
WHERE WE SEE POCKETS OF HEATING AND STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOP THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE RESULT WITH
RAINFALL RATES NEAR TWO INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. THIS KIND OF
RAIN WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
NOT TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE FROM A
COLLAPSING STORM. WILL HIT THIS WORDING HARD IN THE MORNING
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 86 70 84 71 87 / 60 40 60 30 40
MLU 85 70 83 69 86 / 60 40 60 30 50
DEQ 89 68 85 68 89 / 30 30 40 30 30
TXK 88 68 85 70 88 / 30 30 50 30 30
ELD 87 68 84 68 86 / 30 40 60 30 40
TYR 88 70 85 71 88 / 60 30 50 30 30
GGG 87 70 84 72 88 / 60 30 50 30 40
LFK 85 71 83 71 87 / 60 40 60 30 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
35
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1152 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2584
AREAS OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND TOUCH OFF
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DRY WEATHER CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE A
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. A GOOD
PORTION OF THE WEEKEND IT WILL NOT BE RAINING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BECOME VERY WARM TO HOT OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
GOING FORECAST ON TRACK AT THIS POINT. STILL EXPECTING THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH IS
THE FOCUS OF THIS UPDATE.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE AREA AT
MIDDAY...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LATE JUNE SUN. HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF SCATTERED POPS JUST A BIT
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING IS BEING DELAYED BY THE
CLOUDS. AFTER CLOUDS BEGIN TO ERODE WE SHOULD HEAT FAIRLY QUICK
INTO THE MIDDLE 70S WHICH WILL PROVIDE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG. THIS TYPE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
THAN ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH AND CONVERGENT
SURFACE WINDS.
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER WISCONSIN ROTATING OUR DIRECTION. THE GENERAL WIND FIELD AT
THE PRESENT TIME IS FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST...OUTFLOW FROM A
SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONVERGE WITH A LAKE BREEZE ONCE WE BURN OFF THE STRATUS TO
PROVIDE A DECENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE. THE MAX AREA OF CONVERGENCE
VIA HRRR FIELDS LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT BALDWIN SOUTH TO KALAMAZOO.
THIS AREA SHOULD BE WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS POP UP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. LACK OF SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT...BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME SMALL HAIL AND A WIND GUST TO 30 MPH OR
SO ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP. AGAIN
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL HINGE ON THE EROSION OF THE STRATUS TO KICK
IN THE LAKE BREEZE AND HENCE THE AREA OF CONVERGENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2584
WE WILL BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SRN PORTION OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE PCPN POTENTIAL FOR TODAY.
THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA IS SEEING THE MOST CONCENTRATED FOG THIS
MORNING WITH MANY SITES REPORTING BETWEEN A QUARTER OF A MILE AND
ONE MILE ALREADY. THE SOUTH IS WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN FELL
YESTERDAY AND HAD THE CLOUDS MOVE OUT LAST SO LESS EVAPORATION TOOK
PLACE. NOTHING IS REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE THROUGH SUNRISE...SO IT
SHOULD ONLY CONTINUE.
THE FOCUS THEN BECOMES THE CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY. A NICE SHORT
WAVE CAN BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY SPINNING NEAR KMSP AT 06Z THIS
MORNING. THIS SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA
DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT INSTABILITY WILL
BE LACKING A BIT WITH ML CAPES REMAINING UNDER 1000 J/KG THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE AROUND 850
MB WHICH WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT SLIGHTLY ALSO. WITH THESE FACTORS
CONSIDERED...WE HAVE KEPT THE CHCS LIMITED A BIT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS NOT SHABBY WITH VALUES AROUND 30 KNOTS...SO A STRONGER STORM WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
WE EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL SLIP EAST OF THE AREA JUST AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING
AND ABOUT THE SAME TIME WE WILL LOSE OUR DIURNAL HEATING. WE EXPECT
SKIES TO CLEAR OUT A BIT...AND SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD TRY AND ADVECT
IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS WAVE.
THE PERIOD FROM THU THROUGH FRI LOOKS TO BE QUIET ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO DIG
IN ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IN RETURN BUILD
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR REGION. THE SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING IN SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRI. TEMPS WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
TODAY...WARMING TO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY FRI.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2584
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL LOOKS LIKE ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL
OCCUR. MODELS ARE IN OK AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.
ONE SHORTWAVE TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE LEAD TO INSTABILITY AND EVENTUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. A LOW LEVEL JET IS SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA SO THE
ADDED LIFT MAY ENHANCE THE DURATION AND TOTAL RAINFALL OF THE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS COULD OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LOW
TRACKS EASTWARD FROM MANITOBA TO ONTARIO. ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES MAY COMBINE WITH STRONG
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. MON INTO TUE
WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. WILL KEEP
THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS GOING.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MI
TAF SITES DUE TO FOG AND STRATUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
FLYING CONDITIONS FOR AVIATORS. BY NOON...CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH AN INCREASE TO MVFR FOR MOST
LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON...ADDING TO THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS. MORE FOG
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...CONTINUING THE HAZARDOUS FLYING CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
PUSHED THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT IN TIME...THROUGH 700 PM
AS A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL BE ABLE TO REEVALUATE THE MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2584
IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA IN GENERAL SHOULD NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL GIVE THE
AREA A GOOD CHANCE TO DRY OUT A BIT AND ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO
RECOVER FROM THE RECENT RAINS THAT HAVE OCCURRED.
WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORMS TODAY...AND THEN AGAIN
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...HOWEVER NOTHING WIDESPREAD
IS EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
710 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO IFR AS FOG LIFTS INTO LOW STRATUS
OVER THE REST OF THE TERMINAL SITES DURING THE MORNING. THIS HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED AT MBS AND WILL SPREAD THROUGH DTW AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES TO THE OHIO BORDER. THE FRONT WILL ALSO SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING AROUND THE FNT AREA UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING.
AFTER THAT...A SLOW RISE IN CEILING WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND LESS HUMID AIR ARRIVING
FOR A CLEARING TREND DURING THE EVENING. VFR BROKEN CLOUDS BELOW
5000 FT ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED IN MODEL DATA BY THE LACK OF
OBSERVATIONS AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT TODAY...LOW CONFIDENCE
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 407 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE LOWER MICHIGAN
BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL WAVES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. WEAK SUBSIDENCE
BETWEEN THE FEATURES WILL SUPPRESS SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
THUMB REGION BY SUNRISE. THAT WILL LEAVE FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO
CONTEND WITH DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH SE MICHIGAN. THE LATEST TREND IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORT VISIBILITY HANGING AROUND 1/2 MILE FROM
THE I-69 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD WHERE THE WIND IS CALM AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE CLEARING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN
PATCHES BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR TOO SOON
FOR AN ADVISORY...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR HEADLINE POTENTIAL
THROUGH SUNRISE. FARTHER NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...LIGHT NE SURFACE
WIND IS TRANSITIONING FOG TO LOW STRATUS WHICH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH
THE ENTIRE AREA BY MID MORNING AND THEN PERSIST TOWARD NOON.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE OHIO BORDER AS THE UPPER CIRCULATION OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES
TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS FEATURE IS CLEARLY SEEN IN WV SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK REFLECTION THAT WILL
SLIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND PREVENT IT FROM SETTLING TOO FAR SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THE NAM AND RAP MODELS GIVE A GOOD LOOK AT SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN LOWER...IN THE LEE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN WEAK GRADIENT FLOW WHILE
THE FRONT ITSELF LINGERS OVER OHIO AND INDIANA. DELAYED LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINT LINGERING IN THE LOWER 60S. SOME COOLING ALOFT IS
ALSO EXPECTED AS THE UPPER CIRCULATION MOVES OVERHEAD. MODEL
DEPICTION OF 500 MB TEMP INDICATES READINGS COOLING FROM ABOUT
-10C TO ABOUT -14C BY EVENING RESULTING IN SURFACE BASED CAPE
AROUND 750 J/KG TO POSSIBLY NEAR 1000 J/KG IF THE NAM SURFACE
PARCEL WORKS OUT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON SURFACE CONVERGENCE BUT COULD DRIFT INTO OUR
AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75/US 23 CORRIDOR. ACTIVITY WILL ALSO
BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON DIURNAL HEATING AND SO WILL DISSIPATE BY
MID EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL THEN ALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER LOWER MICHIGAN MORE FIRMLY DURING THE
NIGHT.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A STABLE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXPAND THROUGH ALL OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY...CLEARING ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BY THE AFTERNOON...THE MODELED MSLP
STRUCTURE IS ONE SHOWING A HEAVY LAKE AGGREGATE COMPONENT. MODELS
ARE RESOLVING SPURIOUS QPF BLOTCHES IN THE REGION WHICH BRINGS THE
SUSPICION THAT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION PARAMETRIZATION MAY BE BEGINNING
TO SHOW THEMSELVES. THE COMBINATION OF A DRY NEAR SURFACE AIRMASS
WITH SOME MODELED SUBSIDENCE DOWN INTO THE 12 KFT AGL LEVEL NEGATES
ANY POSSIBILITY OF MENTIONING A LOW POP. THE ONLY THING GOING FOR
THIS PERIOD IS SOME RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH 80 DEGREES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXES PUSHING EASTWARD INTO
STATE. BUMPED AVAILABLE GUIDANCE UPWARD FOR THE FRIDAY PERIOD WITH A
SOLID INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB ABOVE 80 DEGREES.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO PIVOT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS WEEKEND OPENING THE DOOR FOR DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
SATURDAY...INCREASING ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM
SUMMERTIME WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. THE QUESTION IS WHEN WILL PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN.
FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES SUGGEST WAIT
UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN.
MARINE...
IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN YESTERDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER ALL
OF THE MARINE AREAS. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS INITIAL COLD FRONT IS
NOT THAT COLD...SO NOT EXPECTING A ROBUST RESPONSE IN THE NORTHERLY
WIND FIELD. THAT BEING SAID...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESPOND
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN
SHOULD RANGE IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD AGGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. DESPITE COOLER AIR
BLANKETING THE REGION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
SLACKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN. VERY QUIET MARINE
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS VORT MAX ROTATING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
MN...TRIGGERING SCT TSTMS OVER NRN WISCONSIN. THE HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX AND SUGGESTS
THE STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE HAYWARD LAKES/CHEQUAMEGON
NATIONAL FOREST REGION THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN DIMINISHES AFTER
THE NOON HOUR AS THE WAVE EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR BEHIND THE WAVE WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES FOR A
FEW SHOWERS OVER NRN MN TODAY. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION
OF THUNDER FOR THE MN ZONES WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED TO
LESS THAN 100 J/KG.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER ONTARIO WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...SETTLING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY. THE LATEST NAM/GFS/ECM SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD REGION LATE
TODAY/OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE DRY AIR AND BUILDING SFC HIGH/CLEARING
SKIES...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR INLAND
AREAS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH TO OUR
WEST RESULTS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE SW FLOW WILL SET OFF
VARIOUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE QUITE A VARIETY OF QPF SOLUTIONS AS SHOULD
BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SETUP...BUT OVERALL IT SHOULD BE A FAIRLY WET
WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY TO
THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY BRINGS MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY THOUGH...SO WE DID BACK OFF A BIT ON POPS
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF
A WESTERLY FLOW BY EARLY IN THE NEXT WORK WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THERE WILL
BE SOME PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL...AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BUT SOME LOWER 80S
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
HIGHLY VARIABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND TODAY. THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD IMPROVEMENT. AREAS OF
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME IN MAINLY SOUTHERN
AREAS...BUT MOST PLACES WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR AS
THE DAY WEARS ON. ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE KHYR AREA WHICH WILL SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR A TIME THIS MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 57 45 61 52 / 20 10 0 10
INL 69 50 76 54 / 20 10 10 10
BRD 70 51 77 63 / 20 10 20 30
HYR 67 49 75 59 / 40 10 20 20
ASX 59 43 68 51 / 40 10 0 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
629 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES.
REGIONAL RADAR HAS CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND AS IT MOVES TO
THE EAST IT HAS BEEN DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY TODAY AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. DESPITE
THE MAIN SIMILARITIES...THE MODELS HAVE SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS DRY BUT AS THE SUN COMES UP EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE HIGH
PLAINS CONVECTION COULD REACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BY AFTERNOON DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. THE HRRR AND
THE WRF BOTH BRING IN SOME CONVECTION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING
THE EVENING A LOW LEVEL JET STARTS UP A LITTLE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS
THAT THE SOUTH MIGHT BE A LITTLE WARMER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
THE BIGGEST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE DETERMINING CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SEVERE WEATHER.
THE OVERALL SITUATION CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EXHIBIT A DIGGING TROUGH IN
THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AS DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OCCURS. THIS COULD HELP SPARK
CONVECTION THURSDAY AND THIS CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL MOVE TO THE
EAST...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH SUPPORT AS THERE WILL BE ON
FRIDAY EVENING FROM A LOW-LEVEL JET AS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST
STARTS EJECTING SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY INTO THE HIGH/GREAT PLAINS.
FRIDAY NIGHT IS STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL JET...WITH THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BUT STILL WITH THE COLD
FRONT/TROUGH TO THE WEST. OVERALL...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SEVERE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT WE COULD SEE AT LEAST A STRONG STORM
FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...BUT FRIDAY DOES LOOK LIKE THE
MOST LIKELY DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY...SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS TO BE MORE DIFFICULT AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES TOP 15C
ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. IF THE ECMWF HAPPENS TO BE WRONG AND WE DO
POP THE CAP...THEN A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE
POSSIBLE...OF COURSE. FOR NOW...I WILL STICK TO JUST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY PERIODS FOR INCLUDING ANY ELEVATED SEVERE MENTION. MADE ONLY
SMALL CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FORECASTING IS
LOW...GIVEN THE MUDDLED FEATURES WE ARE DEALING WITH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND BROUGHT MVFR VISIBILITY TO THE
AREA. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE A LITTLE LOWER VISIBILITY BUT WITH THE
SUN COMING UP EXPECT THE VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1009 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FLOW OF DEEP TROPICAL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT OVER OH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE LATE. SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR
THU AND FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREEP BACK UP DURING THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
POPS ADJUSTED UP BY 10-20 PERCENT ACROSS THE NRN MTNS WHERE A
SHIELD OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR EXPANDING THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT /FLASH FLOOD WATCH/ A FEW LAYERS OF COUNTIES TO THE SE OF
THE PRESENT WATCH COVERING NWRN PENN.
JUICY AIR WITH PWATS OF 1.5-2 INCHES AND SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F
WILL HELP TO QUICKLY INITIATE NUMEROUS MDT-HVY SHOWERS AND TSRA
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SCENT MTNS WHERE SKIES WERE
PRACTICALLY CLEAR ATTM.
CHATTED WITH NESDIS ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING TSRA CELLS AND
EXCESSIVE RAIN ACROSS SCENT PENN AND PTS NE INTO THE MID SUSQ
VALLEY. 3-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS THE POTENTIAL WATCH
AREA IS 2.5 -3.5 INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...FAIRLY SHORT
MBE VECTORS TO THE SE FOR THE BULK OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SUGGESTS THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OF 2-3 INCHES.
SFC-BASED CAPE VALUES COULD GET UP AROUND 1500 J/KG TODAY...ALONG
WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR. THUS ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
THE LIMITING FACTOR ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF THE CWA WILL BE THE
EXTENSIVE LAYERED CLOUD COVER.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NW TO THE
MID 80S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. /WITH A POTENT EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE LIFTING NE TWD THE REGION/ IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
INTO RIDGING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SLOW
PROGRESS OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. THUS WHILE TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS ON THU WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER...THERE WILL STILL BE A
CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ALSO PUSHED THE FLOOD WATCH OUT UNTIL 06Z THU. ONE CAN CUT
WESTERN AREAS OUT LATER AS NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA SHOULD GIVE US A MAINLY
DRY DAY ON FRIDAY. THE FIRST PART OF SAT SHOULD BE DRY AS
WELL.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND...MORE IN THE
WAY OF HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.
THUS LOOKING AHEAD THROUGH THE END OF JUNE AND INTO EARLY
JULY...THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK/JET STREAM FOR NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
MIGRATORY SYSTEMS REMAINS ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...WITH A
DECIDEDLY SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER 48...AS
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SUBTROPICS BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM THE
CARIBBEAN AND SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. FLOW AROUND THE
BERMUDA HIGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PWS IN TIME WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS SAT-TUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND
UPWARD AND GENERALLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRAINING ECHOS OF MAINLY LIGHT RA/SHRA CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...KBFD CONTINUES TO DRIFT IN
AND OUT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LOWER STRATUS ACROSS THE SE
AIRFIELDS WITH KMDT AND KMUI STILL SOLIDLY IN MVFR CONDITIONS.
WEST OF A KTHV TO KIPT LINE...THROUGH CENTRAL PENN...MAINLY SCT
VFR CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
PERIODS OF MVFR TO BRIEF IFR WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSRA.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ALL HINT THAT BULK OF
PRECIPITATION (MOST LIKELY POPS AND QPF) REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 16Z. HRRR SUGGESTS
THAT CONVECTION REMAINS PRETTY MUCH CONTAINED TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH 17Z...BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BREAKS OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. FOLLOWED THIS THINKING IN THE TAFS...KEEPING
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUR OF MOST CENTRAL AND EASTERN AIRFIELDS
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIMP ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WILL SHOW FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH SHIFTING WINDS AROUND 18Z IN THE WESTERN MOST TAFS...AND
AFTER 00Z IN THE EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS.
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...RAIN WILL END...BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG
AND IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THE FRONT MAY TAKE IT/S TIME MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...SO
CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST.
GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH BRIEF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING OVER THE AREA. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THESE LIKELY
WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
OUTLOOK...
THU...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAINLY VFR BUT SOME LINGERING SHRA
POSSIBLE.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT-SUN...GENERALLY VFR...BUT LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-
037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
624 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FLOW OF DEEP TROPICAL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT OVER OH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE LATE. SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR
THU AND FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREEP BACK UP DURING THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
POPS ADJUSTED SOME ON THE EARLIER UPDATE FOR THE AREA NORTH AND
WEST OF IPT.
ANYWAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES SINCE LAST EVENING. ADDED TIOGA COUNTY
TO THE FLOOD WATCH...GIVEN TREND OF STORMS ON RADAR. DID NOT GO
ANY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FLOOD WATCH...AS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER PWATS AND LLJ STAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA.
ONE COULD SEE WEAK SYSTEMS ON RADAR OVERNIGHT THAT HELP FOCUS THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS SO FAR. MUCH OF THE AREA IN AN EXCESSIVE RAIN
OUTLOOK. THE NW AREA HAS ALREADY SEEN RAINFALL IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE.
PWAT VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES ARE IN PLACE. ALSO CAPE VALUES COULD
GET UP AROUND 1500 TODAY...ALONG WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR.
THUS ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. /WITH A POTENT EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE LIFTING NE TWD THE REGION/ IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
INTO RIDGING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SLOW
PROGRESS OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. THUS WHILE TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS ON THU WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER...THERE WILL STILL BE A
CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ALSO PUSHED THE FLOOD WATCH OUT UNTIL 06Z THU. ONE CAN CUT
WESTERN AREAS OUT LATER AS NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA SHOULD GIVE US A MAINLY
DRY DAY ON FRIDAY. THE FIRST PART OF SAT SHOULD BE DRY AS
WELL.
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND...MORE IN THE
WAY OF HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.
THUS LOOKING AHEAD THROUGH THE END OF JUNE AND INTO EARLY
JULY...THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK/JET STREAM FOR NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
MIGRATORY SYSTEMS REMAINS ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...WITH A
DECIDEDLY SUMMERTIME PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER 48...AS
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SUBTROPICS BUILDS NORTHWARD FROM THE
CARIBBEAN AND SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. FLOW AROUND THE
BERMUDA HIGH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PWS IN TIME WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS SAT-TUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND
UPWARD AND GENERALLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRAINING ECHOS OF MAINLY LIGHT RA/SHRA CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...KBFD CONTINUES TO DRIFT IN
AND OUT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST PA OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING A
LOWER STRATUS DECK...WITH KLNS SOLIDLY IN MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. KMDT AND KIPT CONTINUE DRIFTING IN AND OUT OF VFR TO
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOWER CLOUDS.
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST...BOTH IN TERMS OF EXTENT AND SPEED
OF THE LOWERING OF CLOUDS IN THE CENTRAL AREAS...AND ANTICIPATING
HOW WIDESPREAD THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ALL HINT THAT BULK OF
PRECIPITATION (MOST LIKELY POPS AND QPF) REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
CONVECTION REMAINS PRETTY MUCH CONTAINED TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
17Z...BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BREAKS OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. FOLLOWED THIS THINKING IN THE TAFS...KEEPING MENTION
OF PRECIPITATION OUR OF MOST CENTRAL AND EASTERN AIRFIELDS UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON.
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIMP ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WILL SHOW FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH SHIFTING WINDS AROUND 18Z IN THE WESTERN MOST TAFS...AND
AFTER 00Z IN THE EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS.
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...RAIN WILL END...BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG
AND IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THE FRONT MAY TAKE IT/S TIME MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...SO
CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST.
GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH BRIEF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING OVER THE AREA. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THESE LIKELY
WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
OUTLOOK...
THU...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAINLY VFR BUT SOME LINGERING SHRA
POSSIBLE.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT-SUN...GENERALLY VFR...BUT LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-
037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN
LONG TERM...MARTIN/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1034 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
A VORT MAX THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING IS
NOW OVER NE TN/SW VA...AND WILL BE EXITING IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. THE NAM...RUC...AND HRRR ALL SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND 600 MB INVERSION
SEEN IN THE 12Z OHX SOUNDING SHOULD HELP LIMIT COVERAGE. WILL KEEP
A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POP GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME SLIGHT
TWEAKS WILL BE MADE TO POP/WX/QPF GRIDS. MORNING CLOUD COVER IS
KEEPING OBSERVED TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW FORECAST SO FAR...BUT
DECREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPS CLOSE TO FORECAST
HIGHS.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1041 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.UPDATE...
THE FOG NEAR THE LAKESHORE IS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING...SO ALLOWED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM. THERE ARE A FEW STUBBORN AREAS
NEAR THE MILWAUKEE AIRPORT AND KENOSHA AIRPORT...BUT WEBCAMS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT.
A SHORTWAVE IS ROLLING ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATE THIS
MORNING...RIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE THE OVERNIGHT COLD
FRONT STALLED. THERE ARE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
CLICKING THROUGH THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE...MANY PARAMETERS
BULLSEYE SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR BEING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL LATE THIS MORNING.
SURFACE BASED CAPE IS UP TO AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH NO CAP...THERE ARE
30 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...850MB AND
500MB WESTERLY WIND MAX... LOW LIFTED INDEX VALUES...AND
CRAVEN/BROOKS SIG SEVERE VALUE OF 25.
THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS NOON OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MKX FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOUTHERN WI WILL STILL BE IN THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET BUT UNFORTUNATELY...THE SHORTWAVE
WILL HAVE PASSED TO THE EAST BY THEN AND WE WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WITHOUT ADDITIONAL STRONG
SYNOPTIC FORCING. THUS NOT EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS AND WE ARE NOT IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE PER SPC. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE
STILL THREATS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
DAYTIME MIXING WILL HELP TO IMPROVE VISIBILITIES LATE THIS MORNING.
THE STUBBORN SITE IS MKE AND I AM HOPEFUL THAT VIS WILL IMPROVE TO
GREATER THAN A HALF MILE AROUND 11 AM. ELSEWHERE...WEBCAMS CONTINUE
TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT.
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE NEAR A NW TO SE ORIENTED SFC BOUNDARY
ROUGHLY FROM THE DELLS THROUGH MADISON TO JANESVILLE. THIS SHOULD
FOCUS THE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE NORTHEAST.
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL WIND DOWN LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.
EXPECTING FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN NEAR THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM MILWAUKEE SOUTH. DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS MAY DECREASE THE CHANCE FOR THE FOG NORTH OF
THERE COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
DENSE FOG IS ONCE AGAIN AN ISSUE IN THE EAST THIS MORNING...WITH
FOGGY CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING A COUPLE HOURS PAST DAYBREAK.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS THUS ISSUED FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.
DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN IMPROVED VISIBILITIES BY
MID-MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE NEAR A NW TO SE ORIENTED SFC BOUNDARY.
THIS SHOULD FOCUS THE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD WIND DOWN LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO IN THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE
NIGHT.
925 MB TEMPS WILL BE 3-5C COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...SO SHOULD SEE HIGH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S...THOUGH A FEW SPOTS COULD CRACK 80 IN THE
SOUTHWEST. PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS COOLER
CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH HIGHS LIKELY STRUGGLING IN THE 60S.
COULD SEE SOME FOG AGAIN NEAR THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY DECREASE THE
CHANCE FOR THE FOG COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC WITH TIME AS TROUGH SLIDES
EAST. SURFACE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 850/925 THERMAL
TROUGH ACROSS SRN WI. INDICATIONS OF SOME WEAK RETURN WAA INTO SC
WI. WILL JUST GO WITH CHCY SHRA THERE. LIKE THE IDEA OF SWODY2
REMOVING THUNDER SO OPTED TO GO THAT ROUTE AS WELL.
FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BUILDING HEIGHTS THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF AND NAM HAVE THE
CLEANER LOOK TO THE VORTICITY PATTERN. OTHER MODELS SHOWING QUITE
A BIT OF CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTS RIDING INTO THE RIDGE. 850/925
FLOW INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH SO WARMTH AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
GETS GOING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING WITH THE BROAD SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW. HOWEVER WEAK IMPULSES ALONG
WITH THE UPTICK IN MLCAPE MAY BE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THE MODEL
GENERATED QPF. SO WILL HAVE CHCY POPS IN PLACE ESP IN THE WRN AND
CENTRAL CWA.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WE GET INTO MORE OF
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS
GETS A LITTLE CLOSER BUT IS STILL FURTHER WEST CLOSER TO THE
DYNAMICS OF THE 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH. 925 TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOW
20S CELSIUS...SO WARMER AND MORE HUMID. ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO ORGANIZED WITH BETTER DYNAMICS
STILL TO THE WEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF GREATEST CONCERN. STRONGER JET STREAM
ENERGY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INTERACT WITH A RATHER UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ON A FEW DIFFERENT OCCASIONS. WHILE DETAILS ON CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE NOT CERTAIN AT THIS POINT THE PATTERN FAVORS AT LEAST A
COUPLE DIFFERENT CHANCES OF POTENTIALLY STG STORMS DUE TO HIGHER
SHEAR AND CAPE PARAMETERS. IN FACT CWASP REACHES THE 60 TO 70 PCT
RANGE ON A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT OCCASIONS....ESP LATER SUNDAY AND
AGAIN MONDAY.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ECMWF HAS SURFACE/850 FRONT TO THE EAST WITH MORE OF A BROAD
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW. MEANWHILE GFS IS SHOWING A DEEPER POST
FRONTAL UPPER TROUGH WITH LINGERING PRECIP. WILL STICK WITH THE
ALLBLEND POPS AT THIS POINT WHICH ARE IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...DENSE FOG IS ONCE AGAIN AN ISSUE IN THE EAST
THIS MORNING...WITH FOGGY CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING A COUPLE HOURS
PAST DAYBREAK. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN IMPROVED
VISIBILITIES BY MID-MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
SHOULD BE NEAR A NW TO SE ORIENTED SFC BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD FOCUS
THE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
LESSER CHANCES TO THE NORTHEAST.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO IN THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN
THE NIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME FOG AGAIN NEAR THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...
BUT DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY DECREASE THE CHANCE
FOR THE FOG COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS.
MARINE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE CHILLY WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN CONTINUED FOGGY CONDITIONS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
611 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE ON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
LATEST RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN RESPONSE TO A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS SITUATED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND RAN SOUTHEAST NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH
SURFACE HEATING TODAY WE SHOULD SEE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
CLIMB TO AROUND 400 TO 700 J/KG. IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM...MESOSCALE MODELS ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF COLD AIR FUNNEL OR TWO NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON IF
WE CAN BUILD ENOUGH CAPE. THE 06Z NAM12 DOES INDICATE SOME NON-
SUPERCELL TORNADO SIGNAL ALONG THE WIND SHIFT SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON THIS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE APPEARS
VERY LOW. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN SO THIS IS WHERE THE
NAM IS SHOWING THE NST POTENTIAL. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT GENERATING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON SO DECIDED TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND GO WITH COVERAGE WORDING OVER THESE
AREAS. WITH COOLER AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...HIGH
TEMPERATURE OVER THESE AREAS WILL BE IN THE THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
FURTHER SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST
IOWA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER BEING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND SEEING A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AT TIMES TODAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND THE RAINFALL
EXPECTED TODAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT.
THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. 25.03Z SREF GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DENS FOG POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA NORTHEAST IOWA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE NCEP
HIRES WINDOW ARW AND NMM ARE BOTH SHOWING A SIGNAL FOR THIS DENSE
FOG AS WELL. THINKING THE LOW STRATUS OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN WOULD START TO ADVECT NORTHWEST AS FLOW AT AND JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ADVECT A VERY JUICY AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT STAYS WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY BUT THEN STARTS
TO TURN EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THESE MAY GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE BETTER SUPPORT FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...CLIMBING INTO THE 1.5 TO
2.0 INCH RANGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
THIS JUICY AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THIS AIRMASS TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4.0 TO 4.5 KM.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SHEAR THEN STARTS TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY INCREASING THE THREAT
FOR SEEING OTHER SEVERE WEATHER TYPES OUTSIDE OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 KTS. THIS WILL ALL DEPEND
ON WHEN THE TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER AND MODELS ARE A LITTLE AT ODDS
WITH THIS. LOOKING AT THE ECMWF AND GFS THERE IS A TREND TO
INCREASE THE SHEAR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TRIES TO STALL OUT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
SO THIS COULD ENHANCE THE THREAT OF SEEING SOME FLASH FLOODING.
WITH THE WET SOILS OVER THE REGION WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT VERY CLOSELY THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. IT WILL FEEL
RATHER STICKY THIS WEEKEND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW UPPER 80S BUT THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED THROUGH KLSE ALREADY THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD GO THROUGH KRST SHORTLY. THIS WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND
TO A LIGHT NORTH DIRECTION BUT ALSO ALLOW A LOW STRATUS DECK TO
ADVECT IN WITH IFR CEILINGS. THE 25.09Z RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWS THESE
CEILINGS COMING INTO BOTH TAF SITES BUT THEN LIFTS THE CEILINGS UP
TO MVFR BEFORE 15Z. THIS MOST LIKELY IS TOO FAST AND WILL HOLD
ONTO THE IFR CEILINGS A LITTLE LONGER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING ARE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
EAST AND SIMILAR TO WHAT THE 25.08Z HRRR SHOWS...BELIEVE THESE
WILL MISS KLSE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
CAPE BUILDS UP AGAIN AND WITH THE FRONT STILL IN THE AREA...MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD POP UP AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A VCSH
FOR BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER
CHANCES MAY BE OVER WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE FORCING FROM THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BOTH CEILINGS AND SOME FOG. SOME
INDICATIONS IN THE 25.06Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR IFR
CEILINGS...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRING ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK HAS LED TO SIGNIFICANT RISES
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WHILE RAINFALL IS FORECAST THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOW THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AS A FEED
OF MOISTURE RICH AIR INCREASES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1036 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
DISTRIBUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS GOING TO HINGE ON
WHETHER OR NOT THE DRY AIR ADVERTISED BY THE RAP MOVES OUT ONTO
THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
APPEARS TO SHOW A RATHER UNIFORM AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM THE GOES SOUNDER SHOWS DRY AIR
FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE HAS MOVED OVER
THE PALMER DIVIDE. THE GPS DERIVED POINT-BASED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND THE STATE SHOW SLIGHT DRYING OVER THE LAST 2
HOURS...BUT VALUES A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A WEAK WAVE SET TO MOVE OUT OF THE
MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
RIPPLE OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. FOR THE TIME BEING
WILL STICK WITH THE FORECASTED CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO STICK WITH THE IDEA THAT A FAST MOVING BAND
OF SHOWERS THAT MOVES OUT OF THE FOOTHILLS AROUND MIDDAY WILL
SWEEP TO THE EASTERN BORDER BY EARLY EVENING...WITH NO ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND IT. INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP. WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
COVERS PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS GOING TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S...SO AS
TEMPERATURES WARM UP...ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN INITIATING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
UNLIKE YESTERDAY WHERE QUASIGEOSTROPHIC SUBSIDENCE CREATED A
RATHER HOSTILE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FAVORABLE HEATING TIME NO SUCH SUBSIDENCE IS PREDICTED TODAY. ON
THE CONTRARY RAP QG VERTICAL MOTIONS SHOW WEAK ASCENT PRESENTLY
OVER COLORADO WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MAXIMUM
HEATING TIME. INDEED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WHICH BLENDS NICELY WITH
THE CIRA/WRF FORECAST SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONSEQUENTLY A MORE
NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. GPS
MEASURED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL HOVERING AROUND AN
INCH EAST OF THE HILLS AND VERTICAL WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION IN MANY PARTS OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST INSTABILITY ON THE OTHER HAND IS
RATHER CURIOUS AND WILL PROBABLY BE THE MAIN DRIVING FACTOR IN
WHICH AREAS GET WHAT. LOCATIONS EAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR SHOULD
BE ABLE TO HOLD ONTO HIGH CAPE VALUES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS HIGHER OUT THERE. CLOSER
TO THE MOUNTAINS THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING PLUMMETING CAPE VALUES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE IN PART A REFLECTION OF THE
POST-CONVECTIVE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH MOUNTAIN-INITIATED
CONVECTION OR DUE DRIER AIR MIXING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
THE WEST. KGJT AND KSLC RAOBS WERE PRETTY DRY LAST EVENING AND THE
GPS MEASURED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THERE ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF THE VALUES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AT 10Z.
IF CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO FIRE ON THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
MORNING CAN TAP INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR PRESENTLY RESIDING OVER
THE URBAN CORRIDOR SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD EXIST OVER
THE THERE DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. IF MIXING
OCCURS TOO EARLY THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LESSENED. AS IS THE CASE WITH THE SEVERE THREAT...FLOODING
CONCERNS IN THE FOOTHILLS...ESPECIALLY IN THE BURN SCARS...COULD
BE ELEVATED IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS IF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY CAN TAP INTO THE MOISTURE LADEN AIR. TOUGH TO MAKE A
CALL ON THESE DETAILS AT PRESENT BUT THE SITUATION CERTAINLY BEARS
WATCHING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER
THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WITH THE FOCUS FOR MUCH OF THE TSTM
ACTIVITY IN THE AFTN AND EVENING WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE. IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THERE MAY BE AN
ISOLATED HIGH BASED TSTM OR TWO BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT. FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...
RUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN CO FRIDAY AFTN. OVERALL THE AMS WILL BE
FAIRLY DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. WL GO WITH 10-20 PERCENT POPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS...HIGHEST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF DENVER.
OVER THE WEEKEND...A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND 90. A BROAD RIDGE WILL EXTEND FM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IT WILL REMAIN DRY
ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NERN CO MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH. AS A
RESULT...IT MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF TSTMS FM THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE
EASTWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
A QUICK ROUND OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER THE AIRPORT EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS COULD DROP TO
5000-6000 FT AGL AS THE STORMS MOVE OVER. RAPID CLEARING IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE SHOWERS. AFTER SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH WINDS
SHOULD RETURN TO SOUTHERLY AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NO OTHER
AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...DANKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
145 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO FIRE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. EAST IDAHO ALREADY
UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE AT OR ABOVE 500 ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE REGION ALONG WITH NEGATIVE LIFTEDS. 12Z NAM IN LINE WITH
LATEST HRRR IN INITIAL PUSH OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOLLOWED BY
A BREAK UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE AXIS REACHES WESTERN IDAHO.
A FEW ISOLATED CELLS STILL POSSIBLE SOUTHERN/EASTERN HIGHLANDS BUT
MUCH OF REST OF FORECAST AREA REMAINS GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HAVE PUSHED POPS UP IN THE WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT INSTABILITY NOT IMPRESSIVE SO LEFT THUNDER
OUT OF FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY STRENGTHENS AND
LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS BEHIND FRONT ENOUGH TO WARRANT LAKE WIND ADVISORY
STARTING EARLY IN THE DAY. MODELS AGREE ON WET DAY FOR THURSDAY AS
MAIN SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES THROUGH PACNW DURING THE DAY AND LIFT
ACROSS IDAHO OVERNIGHT. REMNANTS OF SHORTWAVE LINGER INTO FRIDAY
BUT MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE. THUS EXPECT WEAK CONVECTION TO BE
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES IN REGIONS OF
BEST INSTABILITY CLOSEST TO SHORTWAVE AXIS. MORE ZONAL FLOW SHOULD
FAVOR BREEZIER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWING
CONFIDENT LAKE WIND CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. EAST IDAHO WEAKLY
CYCLONIC IN BASE OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY BUT FLOW ALOFT MUCH DRIER. HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY TO BETTER FIT GUIDANCE BLEND AND CLEARER/DRIER TREND.
UPPER RIDGE STILL PROGGED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR WARMER AND CONTINUED DRY FORECAST. RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS EAST IDAHO WEDNESDAY...A TREND SHARED BY BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR
NOW PENDING CONTINUED CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MED RANGE MODELS AND
UPWARD TREND IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. DMH
&&
.AVIATION...MORNING GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED APPROACH OF FRONT BY ABOUT 4
HOURS...SO HAVE DELAYED ONSET OF MORNING -TSRA AT KSUN.
OTHERWISE...-TSRA STILL EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT THE OTHER
AIRDROMES WITH GOOD CAPE AND LIFTED INDICES STAYING FROM KPIH
EASTWARD. THUS DONT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
-TSRA ACTIVITY AT KBYI AND KSUN PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN 26/09Z AND 26/12Z. -TSRA MAY START AT KPIH AND ESPECIALLY
KIDA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT HAVE MAXED OUT LINES FOR THOSE
TAFS. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT KBYI DURING THE MORNING...BUT
LITTLE CROSSWIND COMPONENT. MESSICK
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MODERATELY STRONG FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS THU WITH STRONG WIND BEHIND IT WITH ENOUGH UNSTABLE
AIR TO GENERATE A GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOT
ONLY FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT ALSO IN THE MORNING. ENOUGH MOISTURE
ARRIVING WITH THE FRONT THAT HAINES INDEX BOTTOMS OUT AT 2 OR 3 AND
STAYS THERE FOR THU AND FRI. WITH THE SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASED MOISTURE...DONT EXPECT HUMIDITY TO BE A FACTOR DURING
THAT TIME EITHER. BY THE WEEKEND...THE STORM TRACK WILL SHIFT
FARTHER NORTH AND A WARMING AND DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MESSICK
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MDT THURSDAY IDZ021.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
241 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1128 AM CDT
MONITORING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME OF THEM TO BE STRONG.
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS MORNING...WITH
A RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT OF MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS STILL IN
PLACE. WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE MORNING FOG/STRATUS...WARMING HAS
ALLOWED FOR AN EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITHIN RAPIDLY DIMINISHING CIN OVER NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. FURTHER EROSION OF THIS STABLE LAYER/CIN IS
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY LIKELY IN PLACE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN THE
PRESENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY IS CONCERNING ESPECIALLY AS AREAS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS BEGIN TO OBSERVE BETTER
LARGE SCALE LIFT...OUT AHEAD OF A STOUT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. BEST ASCENT WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE SITUATED FURTHER NORTH IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND
THIS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
NONETHELESS...SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT ON THE TAIL END OF THE WAVE
COINCIDING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON OVER NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
ANY STORMS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME...BEFORE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DIMINISH
INTO EARLY EVENING.
DESPITE WEAKER FORCING...EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35-40KT AND PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG
DEVELOPMENT AND EVEN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZE FLOODING REMAINING A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY STORMS AS A
MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE.
RODRIGUEZ
//PREV DISCUSSION...
330 AM CDT
AN IMPRESSIVELY LONG STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AND
OFFERS MULTIPLE CHALLENGES THIS MORNING. REOCCURRING LAKE FOG NEAR
THE SHORE IS THE FIRST ITEM OF CONCERN AND THEN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TODAY. THEN WE LOOK AHEAD THROUGH CONTINUED DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
QUANTIFYING POSSIBLE HOT AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS...WEBCAM IMAGERY...AND REPORTS ARE
INDICATING DENSE FOG MAKING A PUSH INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ONCE
AGAIN. VISIBILITY WAS ABOUT A BLOCK ON SOME WEBCAMS IN LAKE COUNTY
IL WHILE ABOUT FIVE CITY BLOCKS ALONG LAKE SHORE DRIVE AS OF 245 AM.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO FURTHER DETERIORATE ALONG THE COOK
COUNTY SHORE WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS NOW AT NEARSHORE
SITES PROVIDING A LONGER FETCH OF FOG FROM THE LAKE. SO WITH
EXPECTED WORSE CONDITIONS THAN ALREADY BEING OBSERVED FEEL A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NEAR THE LAKE IN NORTHEAST IL IS PRUDENT
WITH AN SPS FOR NORTHWEST IN. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY NEAR THE SHORE WITH ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED AND A
LAKE BREEZE PUSH MIDDAY.
A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IS SEEN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN PROGRESSING EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS HAS IN A WAY
BROKEN OFF FROM A LARGER LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CANADA. THIS IS ALREADY PROVIDING ASCENT AND 850-925MB
CONVERGENCE/FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN WI. CONTINUED
MID-UPPER 60S DEW POINTS OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF
1000-1700 J/KG BY LATE MORNING WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED. SO CANNOT DISAGREE WITH MOST
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE AND
HAVE ADAPTED THAT INTO THE FORECAST BASICALLY FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE HEART OF THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY DOES MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE
INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE MAXIMIZED AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ORIENTED
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST SHOULD EXIST OVER THE AREA AND ENHANCED BY
A LAKE BREEZE. SO THAT SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED
SCATTERED CONVECTION. THIS ALSO MAY OFFER ONCE AGAIN A SOURCE OF
POOLED HORIZONTAL VORTICITY LOOKING AT SOME OF THOSE TYPE OF
PARAMETERS...THOUGH SUCH PARAMETERS /LIKE VGP/ CAN VARY SO
SIGNIFICANTLY IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME AND SPACE CAN ONLY GLEAM SO
MUCH FROM THAT FURTHER THAN A COUPLE HOURS IN THE FORECAST. BUT
WITH ONCE AGAIN MODEST DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 600 J/KG PREDICTED BY
THE NAM...COULD BE SOME OUTFLOWS...LAKE BREEZE...AND ALREADY SOME
CONVERGENCE ALL INTERACTING...THIS CAN PROVIDE SOME EXTRA OOMPH
AND DURATION TO STORMS SUCH AS FUNNELS AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE
CHICAGO METRO SHOWED YESTERDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE A REAL CHALLENGE WITH A WARM STARTING POINT AND
YESTERDAY SAW READINGS OUTPERFORM GUIDANCE. LAST NIGHT UPSTREAM
RAOB AT MPX INDICATED ONCE AGAIN 925MB TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF
20C SUPPORTING MID-UPPER 80S HIGHS. BELIEVE THAT THE EARLY MORNING
FOG AND STRATUS OVER PARTS OF CHICAGO COMBINED WITH EARLIER
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP METRO SITES 5-10F DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. OUTLYING AREAS FROM ROCKFORD THROUGH PONTIAC AND
RENSSELAER SHOULD SEE SIMILAR HIGHS DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION AND ANY ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS. DENSE FOG MAY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AGAIN THIS EVENING
GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY JUST MAY HAVE THE LEAST AFTERNOON COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION YET WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED DOWN
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HESITATE TO SAY THAT GIVEN THE
PATTERN...AND ALSO TO FULLY FORECAST THAT...SO CONTINUE WITH THE LOW
CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY IN THE WEST. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND
INCREASING PWATS GRADUALLY START THURSDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE ON PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT IN
GENERAL THERE ARE SIGNS OF A LOW AMPLITUDE FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CORN BELT DURING FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. WITH SO MUCH DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS AND
UNSTABLE AIR PREDICTED FRIDAY FELT LIKE COULD NOT IMPROVE ON THE
CHANCES IN THE GOING FORECAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN AMPLIFICATION IN THE JET STREAM OVER THE U.S. CONTINUES TO BE
PREDICTED BY LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH A
STRONG UPPER JET FORECAST TO DAMPEN IT BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THROUGHOUT SATURDAY-MONDAY THE
THICKNESS/HEIGHTS/850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUE TO GO ABOVE A SMART GUIDANCE BLEND FOR
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE DAMPENING OF HEIGHTS AND THE
APPROACH OF A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARRANT
THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
* IFR CIGS/VSBY RETURNING LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IN PLACE AT THE CHICAGO
TERMINALS WHILE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE IN PLACE FARTHER WEST
OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL. THERE IS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SKIRTS JUST TO OUR NORTH OVER WISCONSIN. GROWING CUMULUS IS NOW
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM ROUGHLY LSE THROUGH RFD TO CNI.
STORMS FORMING IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST...BUT MAY LOSE
SOME STEAM AS THEY NEAR THE LAKE AND MOVE OVER THE LAKE COOLED AIR.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING...EXPECT THE MARINE CIGS TO SPREAD BACK INLAND OVER THE
TERMINALS REDUCING VSBY AND CIGS BACK TO IFR.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR AGAIN TONIGHT...LOW-MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHRA/TSRA DIRECTLY IMPACTING TERMINALS.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
239 PM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT WHILE LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NOVA
SCOTIA SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC CONSOLIDATES OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. DRIER AIR IS STARTING TO FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WHICH SHOULD HELP REDUCE THE COVERAGE
OF FOG ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE INTO THE EVENING. DENSE
FOG WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE
LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND LIKELY BECOME VARIABLE ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SPREADING DOWN THE LAKE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST INTO FRIDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT GOING INTO FRIDAY AND FAVOR A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BUT THE FLOW MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT THEY
BECOME ONSHORE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BUT THE STRONG WARM
ADVECTION WILL KEEP SHARP INVERSION IN PLACE SO SPEED INCREASE MAY
BE LIMITED. THE LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTENSIFY SUNDAY KEEPING A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LAKE AND TURN WINDS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE STABLE LAYER WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS BUT OFFSHORE FLOW ON THE WEST AND SOUTH
SHORES WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONGER BREEZE STRETCHING A FEW MILES FROM
SHORE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A COOL FRONT
ACROSS THE LAKE TURNING WINDS WESTERLY.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 10 AM
THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1251 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1013 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014
Morning upper air analysis shows two short-waves of interest...one
over Wisconsin and another over eastern Oklahoma. Central Illinois
will remain between these two features today, with the Wisconsin
wave brushing by just to the north. Latest satellite imagery shows
sunny skies across the area: however, CU-rule suggests SCT-BKN
clouds developing this afternoon across the northern and eastern
zones. HRRR and RAP models indicate scattered convection
developing after 17z across mainly northern Illinois into central
and northern Indiana associated with the Wisconsin wave. Have
updated POPs to feature scattered wording along/north of I-74 this
afternoon, with a dry forecast along and southwest of a Rushville
to Shelbyville line.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1251 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014
1715z radar/satellite imagery shows scattered convection
developing along and northeast of a KDBQ...to KPNT...to KIND line
in association with a vigorous upper-level disturbance over
Wisconsin. High-res models suggest much of this convection will
remain northeast of the central Illinois terminals this afternoon
and evening: however, think it will come close enough to warrant
VCSH at both KBMI and KCMI through 02z. Any thunderstorms that
develop will be diurnal in nature and will rapidly dissipate
after sunset. Once Wisconsin wave tracks further east into the
Great Lakes, a frontal boundary currently draped across far
northern Illinois will sag southward tonight. Have introduced a
light E/NE wind at the I-74 terminals overnight as the front
arrives, with light/variable winds elsewhere. Precip chances
appear minimal as daytime instability is lost and upper
support wanes. Continued dry conditions are expected Thursday
morning, with a light E/SE wind.
Barnes
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 314 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT IN THE FORECAST YET AGAIN. A BIT OF A DRY DAY
FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT FOR
SOME SHOWERS, MAINLY TO THE NORTH AS ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE
MIDWEST NORTH OF ILX. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SHOWER, BUT WILL SEE
MORE DRY THAN WET FOR TODAY. ECMWF DROPPING THE SECOND WAVE
TONIGHT IN FAVOR OF A DRIER TOMORROW, GFS WEAKER WITH THE
REPRESENTATION ALOFT, BUT HOLDING ON TO SFC QPF... AND THE NAM
HOLDING ON TO THE QUICK SHORTWAVE AND A WET THURSDAY. THIS MUCH OF
A STRUGGLE IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS MUCH THE SAME TUNE. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK A TROF DIGGING IN
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS SETTING UP FOR A BIGGER PATTERN
SHIFT. SAME PATTERN SHIFT, THOUGH SIMILAR IN THE GFS AND THE NAM
TO THE END OF NAM`S RUN, HAS DIVERGENCE BTWN THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS SOLUTIONS. THOUGH THE DIFFERENCES MAY BE SUBTLE, THE IMPACT TO
ILX IS SIGNIFICANT. FORECAST ONCE AGAIN DOMINATED BY SMALL
POPS...THE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL INTO THE EXTENDED.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
NOT WILLING TO GIVE UP THE POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HOT AND
HUMID AIRMASS AND ANOTHER WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE
FA AND BRING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TS. BEST CHANCES TO THE
NORTH AND EAST, BUT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOT HANDLED WELL IN THE
SHORT TERM AT ALL FOR THE LAST WEEK AND DOES NOT TAKE MUCH IN THIS
AIRMASS. ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINS. ISSUE FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
WITH THE WAVE IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
ABSORBED THE SECONDARY WAVE INTO THE IMPULSE FOR TODAY, BUT THE
NAM KEEPS THEM SEPARATE. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IN WV SAT IMAGERY
BLURRING THE PICTURE BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE OVER MN/IA THIS MORNING.
POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW...NOT BRINGING THEM UP, NOR
DROPPING THEM. NEXT TWO RUNS WILL LIKELY SHAKE OUT SOME OF THAT
DETAIL.
LONG TERM... FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RIGHT NOW, CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH THERE IS DOUBT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
DEPENDING ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND
STRENGTH OF SOME WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC. SUNDAY, MODELS ARE
HINTING AT THE NEXT MAJOR STORM SYSTEM SPINNING UP AS THAT TROF
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND GOES TO A
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE
END OF THE WEEKEND. GFS IS BEGINNING TO SHOW DEEPENING OF THE SFC
LOW, BUT BOTH ECMWF AND LESSER SO THE GFS, ARE HAVING AN ISSUE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. AT THIS POINT, THE BULK OF THAT SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF ILX, AND WILL PROBABLY SEE CONTINUED STORMY
IMPACTS FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE...DEPENDING ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE WAVE ALOFT GETS.
SHOULD THE GFS HOLD OUT, THE IMPACTS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH A
STRONGER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STORMS FOR TUESDAY.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1104 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
330 AM CDT
AN IMPRESSIVELY LONG STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AND
OFFERS MULTIPLE CHALLENGES THIS MORNING. REOCCURRING LAKE FOG NEAR
THE SHORE IS THE FIRST ITEM OF CONCERN AND THEN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TODAY. THEN WE LOOK AHEAD THROUGH CONTINUED DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
QUANTIFYING POSSIBLE HOT AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS...WEBCAM IMAGERY...AND REPORTS ARE
INDICATING DENSE FOG MAKING A PUSH INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ONCE
AGAIN. VISIBILITY WAS ABOUT A BLOCK ON SOME WEBCAMS IN LAKE COUNTY
IL WHILE ABOUT FIVE CITY BLOCKS ALONG LAKE SHORE DRIVE AS OF 245 AM.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO FURTHER DETERIORATE ALONG THE COOK
COUNTY SHORE WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS NOW AT NEARSHORE
SITES PROVIDING A LONGER FETCH OF FOG FROM THE LAKE. SO WITH
EXPECTED WORSE CONDITIONS THAN ALREADY BEING OBSERVED FEEL A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NEAR THE LAKE IN NORTHEAST IL IS PRUDENT
WITH AN SPS FOR NORTHWEST IN. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG MENTION THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY NEAR THE SHORE WITH ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED AND A
LAKE BREEZE PUSH MIDDAY.
A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IS SEEN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN PROGRESSING EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS HAS IN A WAY
BROKEN OFF FROM A LARGER LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CANADA. THIS IS ALREADY PROVIDING ASCENT AND 850-925MB
CONVERGENCE/FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN WI. CONTINUED
MID-UPPER 60S DEW POINTS OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF
1000-1700 J/KG BY LATE MORNING WHEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S ARE EXPECTED TO BE REACHED. SO CANNOT DISAGREE WITH MOST
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS SCATTERED COVERAGE AND
HAVE ADAPTED THAT INTO THE FORECAST BASICALLY FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE HEART OF THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ANOMALY DOES MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON...THE
INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE MAXIMIZED AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ORIENTED
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST SHOULD EXIST OVER THE AREA AND ENHANCED BY
A LAKE BREEZE. SO THAT SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED
SCATTERED CONVECTION. THIS ALSO MAY OFFER ONCE AGAIN A SOURCE OF
POOLED HORIZONTAL VORTICITY LOOKING AT SOME OF THOSE TYPE OF
PARAMETERS...THOUGH SUCH PARAMETERS /LIKE VGP/ CAN VARY SO
SIGNIFICANTLY IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME AND SPACE CAN ONLY GLEAM SO
MUCH FROM THAT FURTHER THAN A COUPLE HOURS IN THE FORECAST. BUT
WITH ONCE AGAIN MODEST DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 600 J/KG PREDICTED BY
THE NAM...COULD BE SOME OUTFLOWS...LAKE BREEZE...AND ALREADY SOME
CONVERGENCE ALL INTERACTING...THIS CAN PROVIDE SOME EXTRA OOMPH
AND DURATION TO STORMS SUCH AS FUNNELS AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE
CHICAGO METRO SHOWED YESTERDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE A REAL CHALLENGE WITH A WARM STARTING POINT AND
YESTERDAY SAW READINGS OUTPERFORM GUIDANCE. LAST NIGHT UPSTREAM
RAOB AT MPX INDICATED ONCE AGAIN 925MB TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF
20C SUPPORTING MID-UPPER 80S HIGHS. BELIEVE THAT THE EARLY MORNING
FOG AND STRATUS OVER PARTS OF CHICAGO COMBINED WITH EARLIER
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP METRO SITES 5-10F DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. OUTLYING AREAS FROM ROCKFORD THROUGH PONTIAC AND
RENSSELAER SHOULD SEE SIMILAR HIGHS DEPENDING ON TIMING OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION AND ANY ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS. DENSE FOG MAY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY ALONG THE LAKE SHORE AGAIN THIS EVENING
GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THURSDAY DURING THE DAY JUST MAY HAVE THE LEAST AFTERNOON COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION YET WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED DOWN
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HESITATE TO SAY THAT GIVEN THE
PATTERN...AND ALSO TO FULLY FORECAST THAT...SO CONTINUE WITH THE LOW
CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY IN THE WEST. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND
INCREASING PWATS GRADUALLY START THURSDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE ON PRECIP POTENTIAL...BUT IN
GENERAL THERE ARE SIGNS OF A LOW AMPLITUDE FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CORN BELT DURING FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD INCREASE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. WITH SO MUCH DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS AND
UNSTABLE AIR PREDICTED FRIDAY FELT LIKE COULD NOT IMPROVE ON THE
CHANCES IN THE GOING FORECAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN AMPLIFICATION IN THE JET STREAM OVER THE U.S. CONTINUES TO BE
PREDICTED BY LONG RANGE GUIDANCE AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH A
STRONG UPPER JET FORECAST TO DAMPEN IT BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THROUGHOUT SATURDAY-MONDAY THE
THICKNESS/HEIGHTS/850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUE TO GO ABOVE A SMART GUIDANCE BLEND FOR
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE DAMPENING OF HEIGHTS AND THE
APPROACH OF A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WARRANT
THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
* WIND SPEEDS WITH NELY-ELY WINDS TODAY.
* CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT.
KREIN/BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
CIGS/VIS HAVE DROPPED AS LOW AS 1/4SM FG AND OVC002 AS MARINE
LAYER SPREADS INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. CIRRUS HAS MOVED AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE FG/ST SPREADING
INLAND. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE
AND HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC IN THE 12Z UPDATE...IN
KEEPING THE 1/4-1/2SM VIS PREVAILING THROUGH 15Z...THOUGH HAVE
TRIED TO INDICATE THE IMPROVING TREND IN THE 13-15Z TEMPO GROUPS
BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. ONE ASPECT OF THE FORECAST
THAT HAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IS THE WIND SPEED/DIRECTION. WHILE
WIND DIRECTION IS SYNOPTICALLY NELY...ANTICIPATE A LAKE INFLUENCE
SURGE IN WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE VEERING A LITTLE MORE
ELY WITH A LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY AND ANY
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY`S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE LATEST HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WOULD BE TO THE WEST OF THE CHICAGO METRO
TERMINALS...CLOSER TO RFD...GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...THIS IS ALSO
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WITH WINDS DECREASING BACK TO LGT/VRBL
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AND WITH THE RETURN OF LGT/VRBL WINDS WILL ALSO
LIKELY BE A RETURN OF IFR CONDITIONS DURG THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VIS DROPPING BACK TO IFR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POSSIBLY SHRA/TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON.
KREIN/BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
315 AM CDT
DENSE CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING FOR THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE AND THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE SOUTH HALF AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS DOWN THE LAKE LATER TODAY THOUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THEN LAKE...ERODING
THE FROM FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...FINALLY SCOURING OUT THE WHOLE LAKE
ON THURSDAY. GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE LAKE INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER
THE OPEN WATERS AND DEVELOPING AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE LAKE. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A COMPLEX...MULTI-CENTERED TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SET
UP A RETURN TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY AND WINDS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25KT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 10 AM
THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1013 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1013 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014
Morning upper air analysis shows two short-waves of interest...one
over Wisconsin and another over eastern Oklahoma. Central Illinois
will remain between these two features today, with the Wisconsin
wave brushing by just to the north. Latest satellite imagery shows
sunny skies across the area: however, CU-rule suggests SCT-BKN
clouds developing this afternoon across the northern and eastern
zones. HRRR and RAP models indicate scattered convection
developing after 17z across mainly northern Illinois into central
and northern Indiana associated with the Wisconsin wave. Have
updated POPs to feature scattered wording along/north of I-74 this
afternoon, with a dry forecast along and southwest of a Rushville
to Shelbyville line.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 704 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2014
Mostly clear skies across central and southeast Illinois this
morning with only isolated pockets of light fog around the region.
Scattered cloud cover expected to develop late in the morning with
cloud bases and coverage likely to remain in VFR category.
Isolated TSRA possible in the afternoon/evening but probability
too low for mention in TAFs. Cloud cover to decrease after 02z.
Winds WNW 4-8 kts until 02z...becoming E-NE around 05 kts.
Onton
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 314 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
NOT MUCH OF A SHIFT IN THE FORECAST YET AGAIN. A BIT OF A DRY DAY
FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT FOR
SOME SHOWERS, MAINLY TO THE NORTH AS ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE
MIDWEST NORTH OF ILX. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISO SHOWER, BUT WILL SEE
MORE DRY THAN WET FOR TODAY. ECMWF DROPPING THE SECOND WAVE
TONIGHT IN FAVOR OF A DRIER TOMORROW, GFS WEAKER WITH THE
REPRESENTATION ALOFT, BUT HOLDING ON TO SFC QPF... AND THE NAM
HOLDING ON TO THE QUICK SHORTWAVE AND A WET THURSDAY. THIS MUCH OF
A STRUGGLE IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS MUCH THE SAME TUNE. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK A TROF DIGGING IN
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS SETTING UP FOR A BIGGER PATTERN
SHIFT. SAME PATTERN SHIFT, THOUGH SIMILAR IN THE GFS AND THE NAM
TO THE END OF NAM`S RUN, HAS DIVERGENCE BTWN THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS SOLUTIONS. THOUGH THE DIFFERENCES MAY BE SUBTLE, THE IMPACT TO
ILX IS SIGNIFICANT. FORECAST ONCE AGAIN DOMINATED BY SMALL
POPS...THE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL INTO THE EXTENDED.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
NOT WILLING TO GIVE UP THE POPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HOT AND
HUMID AIRMASS AND ANOTHER WAVE PROGGED TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE
FA AND BRING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TS. BEST CHANCES TO THE
NORTH AND EAST, BUT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOT HANDLED WELL IN THE
SHORT TERM AT ALL FOR THE LAST WEEK AND DOES NOT TAKE MUCH IN THIS
AIRMASS. ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINS. ISSUE FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
WITH THE WAVE IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
ABSORBED THE SECONDARY WAVE INTO THE IMPULSE FOR TODAY, BUT THE
NAM KEEPS THEM SEPARATE. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IN WV SAT IMAGERY
BLURRING THE PICTURE BEHIND THE MAIN WAVE OVER MN/IA THIS MORNING.
POPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW...NOT BRINGING THEM UP, NOR
DROPPING THEM. NEXT TWO RUNS WILL LIKELY SHAKE OUT SOME OF THAT
DETAIL.
LONG TERM... FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
RIGHT NOW, CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH THERE IS DOUBT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
DEPENDING ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND
STRENGTH OF SOME WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC. SUNDAY, MODELS ARE
HINTING AT THE NEXT MAJOR STORM SYSTEM SPINNING UP AS THAT TROF
AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND GOES TO A
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE
END OF THE WEEKEND. GFS IS BEGINNING TO SHOW DEEPENING OF THE SFC
LOW, BUT BOTH ECMWF AND LESSER SO THE GFS, ARE HAVING AN ISSUE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. AT THIS POINT, THE BULK OF THAT SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF ILX, AND WILL PROBABLY SEE CONTINUED STORMY
IMPACTS FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE...DEPENDING ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE WAVE ALOFT GETS.
SHOULD THE GFS HOLD OUT, THE IMPACTS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH A
STRONGER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STORMS FOR TUESDAY.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
104 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.AVIATION...
VERY MOIST AIRMASS RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINMAKING CONVECTION. FQT
LTG STRIKES...IFR CIGS/VSBYS...AND GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KTS MAY
OCCUR IN STORMS. CURRENTLY...MAIN AXIS OF CONVECTION RUNNING EAST
TO WEST NEAR I-20 CORRIDOR. KTYR...KGGG AND KSHV ALL AFFECTED BY
THESE CONDITIONS ATTM...WITH THIS LINE DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE KMLU
TERMINAL FROM THE WEST. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT NORTH...AND MAY AFFECT THE KTXK AND KELD TERMINALS AFTER
25/21Z. EXTENSIVE STG STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TX...LIKELY
PERSIST AND MOVE INTO AREA THIS EVENING...PERSISTING WELL BEYOND
26/00Z. THE PREDOMINANT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5 KTS...BUT
GUSTY NEAR STORMS. FOG AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL...WHICH SO FAR
INCLUDES KTYR...KGGG...AND KSHV TERMINALS./VII/.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
RADAR IS SHOWING MUCH CONVECTION ALONG OUR SOUTHERN ZONES OUT
AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS SPREADING A REGION OF LIFT TO OUR
AREA. HRRR IS CURRENTLY DEPICTING A LINE OF CONVECTION THAT WILL
INITIATE AROUND THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WHICH LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST. NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME...
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL KEY FACTORS ARE IN PLAY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING SHOWS MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN MOST ZONES AND THIS IS AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
WHICH SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...A MYRIAD OF BOUNDARIES EXIST
FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION AS WELL AS A REMNANT MCV SPINNING IN THE
VICINITY OF PARIS TEXAS AND HUGO OKLAHOMA. UNABLE TO LOCATE THE
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES IN THE LATEST SFC
ANALYSIS BUT LATEST HOURLY 30AGL THETAE ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT
WHATS LEFT OF IT HAS MOVED NORTH OF OUR REGION. 500MB HEIGHT
ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF OUR REGION
WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS. THIS PUTS OUR REGION IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF PVA DESPITE
WEAK DIVQ ALOFT. PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA WILL
COME NORTHWARD TODAY...MAKING IT AT LEAST TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY
AFTERNOON AND ALL THIS WITH JUST A LITTLE HEATING SHOULD RESULT
IN DESCENT STORM COVERAGE TODAY. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO HIGH END CHANCE/LIKELY VARIETY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR...TAPERING POPS BACK TO CHANCE VARIETY ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NORTHERN ZONES.
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AND SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVHD DURING THE DAY THURSDAY ALBEIT
FILLING SLIGHTLY AS IT COMES OUR WAY. THUS...EXPECTING ANOTHER
STRONG PRECIP COVERAGE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS WARRANTED
ACROSS OUR SE ZONE TAPERING POPS BACK TO CHANCE VARIETY ACROSS OUR
NW ZONES. A REMNANT SHEAR AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE ECMWF HAS BACKED
OFF ITS SUGGESTION OF A RETROGRADING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COMING
OUR WAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO SHUT DOWN THE CONVECTION...HAD
TO RAISE POPS TO CHANCE VARIETY FOR FRIDAY AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT...ON SATURDAY AS WELL.
OTHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY...IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE
WILL BEGIN TO SEE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDING EASTWARD FROM THE
UPPER RED RIVER BASIN OF NW TX INTO SW OK AND THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMING TREND FOR OUR REGION WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...OBVIOUSLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL BE TIED TO THE
COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION OUR AREA RECEIVES.
GIVEN THAT WE EXPECT BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE TODAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY...HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BOTH DAYS...BUT ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND LOWER TO MID 90S LOOK GOOD AS WELL FOR OUR RAIN FREE
DAYS COMING UP NEXT WEEK.
AS WITNESSED ON TUESDAY...GIVEN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...
WHERE WE SEE POCKETS OF HEATING AND STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOP THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE RESULT WITH
RAINFALL RATES NEAR TWO INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. THIS KIND OF
RAIN WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
NOT TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE FROM A
COLLAPSING STORM. WILL HIT THIS WORDING HARD IN THE MORNING
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 86 70 84 71 87 / 60 40 60 30 40
MLU 85 70 83 69 86 / 60 40 60 30 50
DEQ 89 68 85 68 89 / 30 30 40 30 30
TXK 88 68 85 70 88 / 30 30 50 30 30
ELD 87 68 84 68 86 / 30 40 60 30 40
TYR 88 70 85 71 88 / 60 30 50 30 30
GGG 87 70 84 72 88 / 60 30 50 30 40
LFK 85 71 83 71 87 / 60 40 60 30 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1214 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.AVIATION...
A BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS RANGING FROM 10K TO 15K FEET WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL A RISK OF SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AFTER 21Z...AND HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR
VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS TO REFLECT THIS RISK FROM AROUND
21 THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. AFTER 02Z...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON THE FORMATION OF A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES THAT A BAND OF
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS FROM 02Z THROUGH 08Z. HAVE
DECICED TO SIMPLY PLACE VCTS WORDING IN FOR ALL OF THE TERMINALS
TO COVER THIS POSSIBLE THREAT. THE CONVECTION MAY LINGER BEYOND
08Z AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW...AS THE MCS DISSIPATES. 32
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 70 83 69 83 / 70 70 50 40
BTR 72 86 72 85 / 70 70 50 40
ASD 73 87 72 87 / 60 70 50 40
MSY 75 88 76 88 / 60 70 50 40
GPT 77 90 76 90 / 50 60 40 40
PQL 72 89 71 88 / 50 60 50 40
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
154 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2584
AREAS OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND TOUCH OFF
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DRY WEATHER CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE A
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. A GOOD
PORTION OF THE WEEKEND IT WILL NOT BE RAINING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BECOME VERY WARM TO HOT OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
GOING FORECAST ON TRACK AT THIS POINT. STILL EXPECTING THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH IS
THE FOCUS OF THIS UPDATE.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE AREA AT
MIDDAY...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LATE JUNE SUN. HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF SCATTERED POPS JUST A BIT
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING IS BEING DELAYED BY THE
CLOUDS. AFTER CLOUDS BEGIN TO ERODE WE SHOULD HEAT FAIRLY QUICK
INTO THE MIDDLE 70S WHICH WILL PROVIDE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG. THIS TYPE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
THAN ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH AND CONVERGENT
SURFACE WINDS.
THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER WISCONSIN ROTATING OUR DIRECTION. THE GENERAL WIND FIELD AT
THE PRESENT TIME IS FROM THE NORTHEAST/EAST...OUTFLOW FROM A
SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONVERGE WITH A LAKE BREEZE ONCE WE BURN OFF THE STRATUS TO
PROVIDE A DECENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE. THE MAX AREA OF CONVERGENCE
VIA HRRR FIELDS LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT BALDWIN SOUTH TO KALAMAZOO.
THIS AREA SHOULD BE WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS POP UP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. LACK OF SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT...BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SOME SMALL HAIL AND A WIND GUST TO 30 MPH OR
SO ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP. AGAIN
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL HINGE ON THE EROSION OF THE STRATUS TO KICK
IN THE LAKE BREEZE AND HENCE THE AREA OF CONVERGENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2584
WE WILL BE ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SRN PORTION OF THE
CWFA THIS MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL BE PCPN POTENTIAL FOR TODAY.
THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA IS SEEING THE MOST CONCENTRATED FOG THIS
MORNING WITH MANY SITES REPORTING BETWEEN A QUARTER OF A MILE AND
ONE MILE ALREADY. THE SOUTH IS WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN FELL
YESTERDAY AND HAD THE CLOUDS MOVE OUT LAST SO LESS EVAPORATION TOOK
PLACE. NOTHING IS REALLY EXPECTED TO CHANGE THROUGH SUNRISE...SO IT
SHOULD ONLY CONTINUE.
THE FOCUS THEN BECOMES THE CHC OF SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY. A NICE SHORT
WAVE CAN BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY SPINNING NEAR KMSP AT 06Z THIS
MORNING. THIS SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA
DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT INSTABILITY WILL
BE LACKING A BIT WITH ML CAPES REMAINING UNDER 1000 J/KG THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE AROUND 850
MB WHICH WILL LIMIT DEVELOPMENT SLIGHTLY ALSO. WITH THESE FACTORS
CONSIDERED...WE HAVE KEPT THE CHCS LIMITED A BIT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS NOT SHABBY WITH VALUES AROUND 30 KNOTS...SO A STRONGER STORM WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
WE EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL SLIP EAST OF THE AREA JUST AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING
AND ABOUT THE SAME TIME WE WILL LOSE OUR DIURNAL HEATING. WE EXPECT
SKIES TO CLEAR OUT A BIT...AND SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD TRY AND ADVECT
IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THIS WAVE.
THE PERIOD FROM THU THROUGH FRI LOOKS TO BE QUIET ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO DIG
IN ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY FRI AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IN RETURN BUILD
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR REGION. THE SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MOVING IN SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
FRI. TEMPS WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID TO UPPER 70S
TODAY...WARMING TO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY FRI.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2584
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. STILL LOOKS LIKE ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL
OCCUR. MODELS ARE IN OK AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.
ONE SHORTWAVE TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE LEAD TO INSTABILITY AND EVENTUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS. A LOW LEVEL JET IS SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA SO THE
ADDED LIFT MAY ENHANCE THE DURATION AND TOTAL RAINFALL OF THE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS COULD OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LOW
TRACKS EASTWARD FROM MANITOBA TO ONTARIO. ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES MAY COMBINE WITH STRONG
INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. MON INTO TUE
WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. WILL KEEP
THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS GOING.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
RAPID IMPROVEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EROSION
OF MORNING FOG. CEILINGS ARE ALSO SHOWING IMPROVEMENT AND SHOULD
CLIMB INTO VFR LEVELS. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS
INLAND POSSIBLY SPARKING A FEW STORMS...HENCE THE VCTS CARRIED IN
THE TAFS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY FADE THIS EVENING.
FOG ONCE AGAIN BECOMES A CONCERN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE STUBBORN.
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT IFR CATEGORIES TONIGHT BEFORE IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
PUSHED THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT IN TIME...THROUGH 700 PM
AS A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. WILL BE ABLE TO REEVALUATE THE MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2584
IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA IN GENERAL SHOULD NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL GIVE THE
AREA A GOOD CHANCE TO DRY OUT A BIT AND ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO
RECOVER FROM THE RECENT RAINS THAT HAVE OCCURRED.
WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORMS TODAY...AND THEN AGAIN
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...HOWEVER NOTHING WIDESPREAD
IS EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...JAM
HYDROLOGY...NJJ
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
130 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN
SLOW TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME POCKETS ARE OPENING UP ALLOWING
BETTER MIXING TO TAKE PLACE SO WILL GO WITH A GENERAL IMPROVING
TREND FROM MVFR CIGS TO VFR BY EVENING. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FEED INTO THE AREA FROM THE NE WHILE COLD AIR ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS SHOULD TREND TOWARD SCT BY MORNING AS
COLD AIR EXITS AND DRY AIR TAKES OVER.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT TODAY...LOW CONFIDENCE
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 407 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE LOWER MICHIGAN
BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL WAVES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. WEAK SUBSIDENCE
BETWEEN THE FEATURES WILL SUPPRESS SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE
THUMB REGION BY SUNRISE. THAT WILL LEAVE FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO
CONTEND WITH DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH SE MICHIGAN. THE LATEST TREND IN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORT VISIBILITY HANGING AROUND 1/2 MILE FROM
THE I-69 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD WHERE THE WIND IS CALM AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE CLEARING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE IN
PATCHES BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR TOO SOON
FOR AN ADVISORY...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR HEADLINE POTENTIAL
THROUGH SUNRISE. FARTHER NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...LIGHT NE SURFACE
WIND IS TRANSITIONING FOG TO LOW STRATUS WHICH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH
THE ENTIRE AREA BY MID MORNING AND THEN PERSIST TOWARD NOON.
DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE OHIO BORDER AS THE UPPER CIRCULATION OVER THE MIDWEST MOVES
TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS FEATURE IS CLEARLY SEEN IN WV SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK REFLECTION THAT WILL
SLIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND PREVENT IT FROM SETTLING TOO FAR SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THE NAM AND RAP MODELS GIVE A GOOD LOOK AT SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN LOWER...IN THE LEE OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN WEAK GRADIENT FLOW WHILE
THE FRONT ITSELF LINGERS OVER OHIO AND INDIANA. DELAYED LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINT LINGERING IN THE LOWER 60S. SOME COOLING ALOFT IS
ALSO EXPECTED AS THE UPPER CIRCULATION MOVES OVERHEAD. MODEL
DEPICTION OF 500 MB TEMP INDICATES READINGS COOLING FROM ABOUT
-10C TO ABOUT -14C BY EVENING RESULTING IN SURFACE BASED CAPE
AROUND 750 J/KG TO POSSIBLY NEAR 1000 J/KG IF THE NAM SURFACE
PARCEL WORKS OUT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON SURFACE CONVERGENCE BUT COULD DRIFT INTO OUR
AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-75/US 23 CORRIDOR. ACTIVITY WILL ALSO
BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON DIURNAL HEATING AND SO WILL DISSIPATE BY
MID EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL THEN ALLOW
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER LOWER MICHIGAN MORE FIRMLY DURING THE
NIGHT.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A STABLE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXPAND THROUGH ALL OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY...CLEARING ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BY THE AFTERNOON...THE MODELED MSLP
STRUCTURE IS ONE SHOWING A HEAVY LAKE AGGREGATE COMPONENT. MODELS
ARE RESOLVING SPURIOUS QPF BLOTCHES IN THE REGION WHICH BRINGS THE
SUSPICION THAT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION PARAMETRIZATION MAY BE BEGINNING
TO SHOW THEMSELVES. THE COMBINATION OF A DRY NEAR SURFACE AIRMASS
WITH SOME MODELED SUBSIDENCE DOWN INTO THE 12 KFT AGL LEVEL NEGATES
ANY POSSIBILITY OF MENTIONING A LOW POP. THE ONLY THING GOING FOR
THIS PERIOD IS SOME RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS THURSDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH 80 DEGREES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXES PUSHING EASTWARD INTO
STATE. BUMPED AVAILABLE GUIDANCE UPWARD FOR THE FRIDAY PERIOD WITH A
SOLID INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB ABOVE 80 DEGREES.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO PIVOT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS WEEKEND OPENING THE DOOR FOR DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
SATURDAY...INCREASING ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO VERY WARM
SUMMERTIME WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. THE QUESTION IS WHEN WILL PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN.
FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES SUGGEST WAIT
UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN.
MARINE...
IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN YESTERDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER ALL
OF THE MARINE AREAS. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS INITIAL COLD FRONT IS
NOT THAT COLD...SO NOT EXPECTING A ROBUST RESPONSE IN THE NORTHERLY
WIND FIELD. THAT BEING SAID...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESPOND
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN
SHOULD RANGE IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD AGGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. DESPITE COOLER AIR
BLANKETING THE REGION...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
SLACKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN. VERY QUIET MARINE
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1259 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES.
REGIONAL RADAR HAS CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND AS IT MOVES TO
THE EAST IT HAS BEEN DIMINISHING AT THIS TIME. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY TODAY AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. DESPITE
THE MAIN SIMILARITIES...THE MODELS HAVE SEVERAL DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS DRY BUT AS THE SUN COMES UP EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE HIGH
PLAINS CONVECTION COULD REACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BY AFTERNOON DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. THE HRRR AND
THE WRF BOTH BRING IN SOME CONVECTION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING
THE EVENING A LOW LEVEL JET STARTS UP A LITTLE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONVECTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS
THAT THE SOUTH MIGHT BE A LITTLE WARMER.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
THE BIGGEST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE DETERMINING CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SEVERE WEATHER.
THE OVERALL SITUATION CONTINUES TO BE UNSETTLED WITH WEAK FLOW
ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EXHIBIT A DIGGING TROUGH IN
THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AS DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS OCCURS. THIS COULD HELP SPARK
CONVECTION THURSDAY AND THIS CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL MOVE TO THE
EAST...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH SUPPORT AS THERE WILL BE ON
FRIDAY EVENING FROM A LOW-LEVEL JET AS THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST
STARTS EJECTING SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY INTO THE HIGH/GREAT PLAINS.
FRIDAY NIGHT IS STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL JET...WITH THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BUT STILL WITH THE COLD
FRONT/TROUGH TO THE WEST. OVERALL...WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SEVERE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT WE COULD SEE AT LEAST A STRONG STORM
FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST...BUT FRIDAY DOES LOOK LIKE THE
MOST LIKELY DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY...SEVERE
WEATHER APPEARS TO BE MORE DIFFICULT AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES TOP 15C
ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. IF THE ECMWF HAPPENS TO BE WRONG AND WE DO
POP THE CAP...THEN A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE
POSSIBLE...OF COURSE. FOR NOW...I WILL STICK TO JUST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY PERIODS FOR INCLUDING ANY ELEVATED SEVERE MENTION. MADE ONLY
SMALL CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FORECASTING IS
LOW...GIVEN THE MUDDLED FEATURES WE ARE DEALING WITH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE TIME BEING...KEPT VFR
CIGS AND A VCTS AFTER 26/22Z. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...INCREASING AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH ON THURSDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
309 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AIR MASS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BREEZIER WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD
LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. AFTER THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS HIGHS
REACH WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE STATE. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING AND MOVE EAST WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE DRYLINE. THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
NE PLAINS AS THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SO
MAINTAINED LOW END CHANCE POPS. BASED ON SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
AND LATEST LAPS READINGS...A FEW SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE FAR NE PLAINS WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXIST.
A DRY AIR MASS INDICATED BY THE CIRA BLENDED TPW PERCENT OF NORMAL
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
SCOUR OUT MOISTURE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE DRYLINE SETTING
UP ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER EACH DAY. MODELS HINT THAT THE
DISTURBANCE MAY DIP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SET OFF A FEW STORMS OVER
THE NORTHERN MTS FRIDAY...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE DRYLINE. STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO
BREEZIER CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. A FIRE WX WATCH WILL
BE ISSUED FOR FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY COOL WEST TO EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY AS PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE DISTURBANCE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE NE PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING AND DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NE PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING. THIS THINKING
IS IN LINE WITH THE HIGH RES NAM MODEL THAT PICKS UP ON POTENTIAL
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY LACK.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BECOMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL AREA WIDE BY SUNDAY.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...INCREASING MOISTURE AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO THE AREA
UNDERNEATH THE HIGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ITS LATE IN THE MODEL
RUNS...BUT THIS MAY BE THE FIRST SIGNS OF MONSOON LIKE ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. HOPEFULLY THIS TREND HOLDS
IN ENSUING MODEL RUNS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENTLY HAVE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE EVENING DIMINISHING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THIS MORNINGS
READINGS STAYING ABOVE NORMAL AREA WIDE. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AND WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT
ACROSS THE EAST.
INTO THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
AND EASTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA WITH THE SUB TROPICAL HIGH
ELONGATED INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DRASTICALLY DECREASE WITH VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY EXPECTED AND ANYTHING
THAT DOES FORM WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
STATE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL MODERATE ACROSS THE WEST AND WILL TREND UP
ELSEWHERE. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCOMING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. WINDS ACROSS THE WEST AS WELL AS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL SEE GUSTS INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AREA WIDE WITH TEENS AND
LOW 20S ALONG THE FAR EASTERN BORDER WHERE MOISTURE IS STAYING PUT.
SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS AND THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS WITH SOME
SUPER HAINES VALUES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT WITH HIGH HAINES VALES AREA WIDE.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH INTENSIFYING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR AREA WIDE WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL LOWS TO
START OFF YOUR DAY. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AS
WELL AS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS WHERE TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS ARE FORECAST. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FURTHER ACROSS ALL AREAS...MOST PRONOUNCED AGAIN
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. THE DRYLINE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE
STATE WITH MOISTURE DECREASING ACROSS THE EAST. MIN RH VALUES WILL
AGAIN BE DISMAL WITH TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS AREA WIDE. COMBINATION
OF THE WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAD TO MULTIPLE HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
ZONES 103 AND 107 THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO SHOWING UP IN ZONES 104 AND 108
BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED THEM IN THE WATCH AT THIS TIME BECAUSE THEY
HAVE RECEIVED A LOT OF PRECIPITATION OF LATE. VENTILATION RATES WILL
BE EXCELLENT AREA WIDE.
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL ENSUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK WITH MINIMAL
CHANCES OF RAIN. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE STATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PULL LOOKS TO BEGIN TO SET UP
DURING THIS TIME THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
21
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AT KLVS...KTCC AND KROW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL
PICK UP INTO THE AFTERNOON AT ALL AREAS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS
EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND MOVE EASTWARD. HAVE VCTS AT KLVS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HAVE VCTS IN AT KTCC FOR THIS EVENING
POSSIBLY IMPACTING THEM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE WINDS
STAYING ELEVATED AT KTCC DUE TO CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WELL. WINDS WILL CALM INTO THE EVENING MOST AREAS WITH
THEM SET TO PICK UP RIGHT AROUND 17Z TOMORROW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 53 93 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 40 87 45 79 / 0 0 0 5
CUBA............................ 47 89 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 47 88 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 45 83 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 46 89 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 51 86 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 49 92 50 89 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 42 81 44 75 / 5 0 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 57 85 61 81 / 0 0 0 10
PECOS........................... 54 84 57 79 / 5 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 48 81 51 77 / 5 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 47 74 46 69 / 10 5 5 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 38 78 40 74 / 10 5 5 10
TAOS............................ 46 87 48 81 / 5 0 0 5
MORA............................ 49 84 52 80 / 10 5 5 10
ESPANOLA........................ 52 92 55 88 / 5 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 56 86 58 83 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 54 92 56 88 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 64 93 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 64 94 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 62 98 64 94 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 63 96 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 57 97 61 93 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 62 95 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 66 100 69 98 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 89 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 59 89 62 86 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 50 91 51 88 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 55 89 57 86 / 0 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 91 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 64 92 66 91 / 10 5 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 56 87 58 85 / 10 0 0 5
CAPULIN......................... 54 85 58 82 / 20 10 5 5
RATON........................... 53 92 53 88 / 20 10 5 10
SPRINGER........................ 53 93 55 88 / 10 10 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 51 89 56 85 / 5 0 5 5
CLAYTON......................... 61 93 62 93 / 30 10 10 10
ROY............................. 59 91 60 89 / 20 10 5 5
CONCHAS......................... 64 98 66 96 / 10 5 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 62 95 65 94 / 5 5 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 65 100 66 99 / 20 5 5 5
CLOVIS.......................... 60 94 62 94 / 20 5 5 10
PORTALES........................ 64 96 65 97 / 20 5 5 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 65 96 68 96 / 10 5 5 5
ROSWELL......................... 66 101 68 102 / 10 5 5 5
PICACHO......................... 61 94 64 94 / 10 5 5 5
ELK............................. 60 90 62 89 / 10 5 0 5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-107.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
325 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND ACROSS CENTRAL
NC TODAY AND TONIGHT... AND LINGER ACROSS COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT: VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
IS SHOWING SOME ENHANCED CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SHARPENING
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT... WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO. FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AND ARE GENERALLY MOVING EASTWARD AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS MORE TIED TO
DIFFERENTL HEATING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE APPROACHING MID
LEVEL TROUGH. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDEL ON THE CONVECTION. GIVEN INSTABILITY IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
PEAK AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE AROUND 15 TO 20
KTS... CONTINUE TO EXPECT ONLY A MARGINAL WIND THREAT. WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT... GENERALLY FROM RALEIGH WESTWARD. EAST OF
RALEIGH... MOST OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZING AND THE CONVECTION BECOMING MUCH MORE ISOLATED OR EVEN
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THUS... HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN SANDHILLS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (ESPECIALLY NOW THE
THE LEAD DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF OUR COASTAL PLAIN).
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S STILL APPEAR REASONABLE FOR HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON.
WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME MID LEVEL DRYING TAKE PLACE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. HOWEVER... THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM AND MOIST. THUS... EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S... BUT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED GENERALLY AFTER 06Z OR SO. IN ADDITION... CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY FOG FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE SOME DECENT CONVECTION
TODAY.
THURSDAY: THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH CAROLINA... POSSIBLY ALLOWING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC.
MEANWHILE WEAK MID LEVEL S/W RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER.... WE STILL MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION (MOSTLY SHOWERS)
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO OUR FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BEFORE IT DISSIPATES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. WILL HANDEL BOTH OF THESE THREATS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 NW TO THE LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE (MAYBE EVEN A FEW
MID 90S SOUTH).
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN COUPLED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS INA MODERATELY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL SUPPORT THE INITIATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS PERIOD. BASED ON TRACK OF THE THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS...BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY EXPECT COVERAGE
TO BE HIGHEST LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY THOUGH COVERAGE NO MORE THAN 30
PERCENT EXPECTED. LACK OF SHEAR SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL BE
PULSE TYPE WITH SEVERE THREAT MINIMAL. MIN TEMPS I THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF
SUN/CLOUDS. CURRENTLY FAVOR MAX TEMPS 90-95. IF CLOUDS MORE
PREVALENT...MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WOULD BE MORE IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERING SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS THIS PERIOD. GFS HAS LATCHED ONTO A MINOR S/W
LIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE LATEST ECMWF STILL SUGGEST
MODEST HEIGHT RISES IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WITH JUST A WEAK SHEAR
AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE SW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THAT A
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN THE WESTERN GULF AT THIS TIME...SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THIS ENERGY TO LIFT NEWD INTO OUR REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS STILL IN
QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL TAKE A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND GO NO HIGHER
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE AREAWIDE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CHANCE SATURDAY. IN
ANTICIPATION OF MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN SATURDAY...HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS BY 3-4 DEGREES FROM EARLIER FORECAST. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY UPPER
80S-LOWER 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM WEDNESDAY...
MODEST MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE FAR WESTERN-NW PIEDMONT AS ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY THREATEN THE WESTERN-NW
PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. MAX TEMPS NEAR 90-LOWER
90S. MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF S/WS IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL CROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST-GREAT LAKES-NEW ENGLAND. THE TAIL END
OF THESE S/WS WILL BRUSH SOUTHERN VA-NORTHERN NC. WITH A MODERATELY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...THESE SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO TRIGGER/MAINTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS. MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT
STRONGER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER JET DRIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES-SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ENHANCED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW MAY AID TO ORGANIZE THE CONVECTION INTO
BROKEN BANDS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY
WEATHER HAZARDS. FOR NOW...PLAN TO GO NO HIGHER THAN 30-40 PERCENT
MONDAY AND 20-30 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS TIMING OF SYSTEMS
TIS FAR OUT A CRAP-SHOOT AT BEST.
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S AND MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM WEDNESDAY...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED
TO CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAVE FORMED GENERALLY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. HOW FAR EAST THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MAKE IT BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING IS STILL A BIT IN
QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL ONLY CARRY TEMPO GROUPS AT KGSO/KINT/KRDU FOR
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS GUSTS FROM
CONVECTION... AS MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAKING IT TO KFAY AND KRWI.
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY AT
LEAST 06-09Z ENDING ANY LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HOWEVER... GIVEN WE WILL NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS EXPECT WE WILL SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP FOR LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIP TODAY. THUS... HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP TO KGSO AND KINT FOR SUB-VFR VISBYS FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF
THURSDAY MORNING... AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS. IN ADDITION... HAVE ADDED SUB-VFR
VISBYS TO FOG PRONE KRWI GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONTINUED MOIST LOW
LEVEL/NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS COUPLED WITH CLEARING SKIES NEAR
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS...
MAINLY AT KFAY AND KRWI THU AND FRI...THEN AREA-WIDE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL POSE THE PRIMARY THREAT OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...BSD/MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND ACROSS CENTRAL
NC TODAY AND TONIGHT... AND LINGER ACROSS COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT: VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
IS SHOWING SOME ENHANCED CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SHARPENING
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT... WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO. FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED AND ARE GENERALLY MOVING EASTWARD AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS MORE TIED TO
DIFFERENTL HEATING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE APPROACHING MID
LEVEL TROUGH. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDEL ON THE CONVECTION. GIVEN INSTABILITY IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
PEAK AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE AROUND 15 TO 20
KTS... CONTINUE TO EXPECT ONLY A MARGINAL WIND THREAT. WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT... GENERALLY FROM RALEIGH WESTWARD. EAST OF
RALEIGH... MOST OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZING AND THE CONVECTION BECOMING MUCH MORE ISOLATED OR EVEN
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THUS... HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN SANDHILLS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (ESPECIALLY NOW THE
THE LEAD DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED TO THE EAST OF OUR COASTAL PLAIN).
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S STILL APPEAR REASONABLE FOR HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON.
WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME MID LEVEL DRYING TAKE PLACE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. HOWEVER... THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM AND MOIST. THUS... EXPECT LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S... BUT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED GENERALLY AFTER 06Z OR SO. IN ADDITION... CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY FOG FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE SOME DECENT CONVECTION
TODAY.
THURSDAY: THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH CAROLINA... POSSIBLY ALLOWING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC.
MEANWHILE WEAK MID LEVEL S/W RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER.... WE STILL MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION (MOSTLY SHOWERS)
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO OUR FAR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BEFORE IT DISSIPATES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. WILL HANDEL BOTH OF THESE THREATS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.
OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 NW TO THE LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE (MAYBE EVEN A FEW
MID 90S SOUTH).
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN COUPLED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS INA MODERATELY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL SUPPORT THE INITIATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS PERIOD. BASED ON TRACK OF THE THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS...BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY EXPECT COVERAGE
TO BE HIGHEST LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY THOUGH COVERAGE NO MORE THAN 30
PERCENT EXPECTED. LACK OF SHEAR SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL BE
PULSE TYPE WITH SEVERE THREAT MINIMAL. MIN TEMPS I THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. AFTERNOON TEMPS FRIDAY DEPENDENT UPON EXTENT OF
SUN/CLOUDS. CURRENTLY FAVOR MAX TEMPS 90-95. IF CLOUDS MORE
PREVALENT...MAX TEMPS FRIDAY WOULD BE MORE IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERING SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS THIS PERIOD. GFS HAS LATCHED ONTO A MINOR S/W
LIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE LATEST ECMWF STILL SUGGEST
MODEST HEIGHT RISES IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WITH JUST A WEAK SHEAR
AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE SW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERING THAT A
SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN THE WESTERN GULF AT THIS TIME...SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THIS ENERGY TO LIFT NEWD INTO OUR REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS STILL IN
QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL TAKE A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND GO NO HIGHER
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE AREAWIDE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CHANCE SATURDAY. IN
ANTICIPATION OF MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN SATURDAY...HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS BY 3-4 DEGREES FROM EARLIER FORECAST. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY UPPER
80S-LOWER 90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY...
THE LATEST GFS HAS TRENDED WETTER ON FRIDAY AND FEATURES THE SFC
BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THE S/SE PART OF THE STATE ALONG WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
FEATURES MID LEVEL FLOW MORE NWLY VERSUS THE GFS AND IS SOMEWHAT
DRIER. GIVEN THE RECENT RUN CONSISTENCY...PREFER TO KEEP FRIDAY POPS
AROUND CLIMO...30 PERCENT OR LESS...AND IF THE RECENT GFS TRENDS
CONTINUE WILL NEED TO INCREASE POPS W/SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES.
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN THE BOUNDARY LOCATION
TO OUR SOUTH...AND WITH ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE TSTM INTENSITY SHOULD ALSO BE LIMITED ON FRIDAY.
FOR THIS WEEKEND...LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ON SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE
BEING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OLD BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SOUTH DURING THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUILDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH THE HIGH AND INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY WHILE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
PUSHED SOUTH AND WEST. AS A RESULT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR
CWA ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH AND WESTERN ZONES...WHILE
THE REST OF OUR CWA POPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS MAINTAINS A
RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WHILE THE ECMWF FEATURES NW FLOW ALONG WITH THE
PIEDMONT SFC TROUGH PERSISTING. UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT...WILL STICK CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP
CHANCES DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
AS FOR TEMPS...LOOK FOR A SUBTLE DOWNWARD TREND LATE THIS WEEK AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SLIPS TO OUR SOUTH...THEN GUIDANCE SHOWS
NEAR-NORMAL LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 1410-1420M
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPS (LOWS IN TEH UPPER 60S AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM WEDNESDAY...
A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED
TO CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAVE FORMED GENERALLY TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. HOW FAR EAST THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MAKE IT BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING IS STILL A BIT IN
QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL ONLY CARRY TEMPO GROUPS AT KGSO/KINT/KRDU FOR
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS GUSTS FROM
CONVECTION... AS MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS LITTLE IF ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAKING IT TO KFAY AND KRWI.
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY AT
LEAST 06-09Z ENDING ANY LINGERING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HOWEVER... GIVEN WE WILL NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS EXPECT WE WILL SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP FOR LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIP TODAY. THUS... HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP TO KGSO AND KINT FOR SUB-VFR VISBYS FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF
THURSDAY MORNING... AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS. IN ADDITION... HAVE ADDED SUB-VFR
VISBYS TO FOG PRONE KRWI GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONTINUED MOIST LOW
LEVEL/NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS COUPLED WITH CLEARING SKIES NEAR
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS...
MAINLY AT KFAY AND KRWI THU AND FRI...THEN AREA-WIDE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL POSE THE PRIMARY THREAT OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BSD
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...BSD/MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
215 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT AND STALL OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM WED...MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO POP FORECAST BASED
ON AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE PAMLICO SOUND REGION. THIS WAS IN
LINE WITH THE 13Z HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITY FORECAST. RAISED POPS TO
50 ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AREA AND DROPPED TO 40 INLAND. TWEAKED
QPF AS WELL. TEMP FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK.
PREV DISC...VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER ERN NC WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES
GENERALLY AOA 2 INCHES. SERIES OF WEAK SRT WAVES WILL CROSS WITH
INIT ONE LIFTING NE EARLY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE APPROACHING FROM
THE W LATE. EXPECT FAIRLY TYPICAL DIURNAL PRECIP PATTERN WITH BEST
CVRG NEAR CST THRU EARLY/MID MORNING WITH PRECIP SHIFTING AND
EXPANDING INLAND THIS AFTN WITH SEA BRZ AND APPROACHING SRT WAVE.
FOR THIS AFTN HAVE POPS IN GOOD CHC RANGE INLAND. COMBO OF INSTAB
AND SHEAR NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR STORMS THIS AFTN WHEN INSTAB PEAKS. WILL
SEE ENOUGH SUN FOR HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND TO 80S CST...SSW WINDS MAY
GUST TO AROUND 20 MPH THIS AFTN FOR THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM WED...DECENT CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY WITH
APPROACHING SRT WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT...CONT CHC POPS ALL AREAS
THRU LATE EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO REGION LATE WITH
BEST PRECIP CHCS SHIFTING CLOSER TO CST AFTER 06Z. WILL BE ANOTHER
MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. SW WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY BEACHES
IN THE EVENING THEN DIMINISH LATE AS FRONT MOVES CLOSER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FCST WITH THIS
PACKAGE. LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF PERIOD WITH
WEAK SHRT WV TROF OVER AREA MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY
THU...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL WEAK ENERGY FRI AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THERMAL TROF POSITION THU...AND THEN DROP
ACROSS ERN NC THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ON THU WITH SHRT WV TROF MOVING
OFFSHORE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTN WITH FRONT APPROACHING AND THERMAL TROF JUST INLAND...THUS
CONTINUED LOW CHC POPS. DID HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO DROP POPS ALL
BUT SRN SECTIONS FOR THU NIGHT. FRONT WILL STALL OVER SRN SECTIONS
FRI AFTN BUT MODELS INDICATE SHRT WV ACTIVITY COULD STILL PRODUCE
SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY INLAND...AND KEPT 20 POPS ALL AREAS
WITH HIGHER 30 OVER SRN SEA BREEZE ZONE WITH ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE
LIKELY THERE.
UPR RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM W-SW SAT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALLOW TEMPS TO BUILD BACK INTO LOW-MID 90S BY TUE.
FRONTAL BNDRY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO S...BUT SEA BREEZE AND
GRADUALLY VEERING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN THREAT OF ISOLATED TO
SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM WED...CURRENTLY MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS FIRING
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF CWA BUT EXPECT ADDITIONAL POP UP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE THREAT DIMINISHING TOWARDS MORNING AS THE
FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST. CONTINUED VCTS THROUGH THE EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG/TIMING. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION EXPECT VFR TO DOMINATE. SOME LATE NIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE
BUT EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND SOME MIXING TO INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES BY
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...TYPICAL SUMMER VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FOR MOST OF PERIOD. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THU NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY...THEN STALL TO S REST OF PERIOD...BUT THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF SCT TSTMS AT MOST TAF SITES EACH DAY WITH
LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL. IN AREAS WHERE RAIN OCCURS...THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP VSBYS TO MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS UPDATE AS FCST REMAINS
ON TRACK.
PREV DISC...GRDNT WILL TIGHTEN LATER TODAY AS SFC TROF DEVELOPS WITH
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W. SSW WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS THIS MORN
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS THIS EVENING. AS COLD FRONT MOVES
CLOSER LATE TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WSW AND GRAD DIMINISH.
SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET THIS
EVENING...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL/SRN WTRS. SEAS SHLD DROP BELOW 5 FT
LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH.
LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THU AS WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES FROM NW. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THU NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WIND
SHIFT TO N AND NE OVER ALL THE WATERS BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KT.
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO S WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS TO N
AND NE OF AREA...PRODUCING GRADUALLY VEERING E TO SE WINDS OVER
WEEKEND.
LATEST LOCAL NWPS AND WW3 IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST
SEAS. HEIGHTS 3-4 FT EARLY THU WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT REST OF
PERIOD.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RSB/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CTC/RF
AVIATION...RSB/CTC/RF
MARINE...RSB/CTC/RF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
103 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT AND STALL OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM WED...MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO POP FORECAST BASED
ON AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE PAMLICO SOUND REGION. THIS WAS IN
LINE WITH THE 13Z HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITY FORECAST. RAISED POPS TO
50 ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AREA AND DROPPED TO 40 INLAND. TWEAKED
QPF AS WELL. TEMP FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK.
PREV DISC...VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER ERN NC WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES
GENERALLY AOA 2 INCHES. SERIES OF WEAK SRT WAVES WILL CROSS WITH
INIT ONE LIFTING NE EARLY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE APPROACHING FROM
THE W LATE. EXPECT FAIRLY TYPICAL DIURNAL PRECIP PATTERN WITH BEST
CVRG NEAR CST THRU EARLY/MID MORNING WITH PRECIP SHIFTING AND
EXPANDING INLAND THIS AFTN WITH SEA BRZ AND APPROACHING SRT WAVE.
FOR THIS AFTN HAVE POPS IN GOOD CHC RANGE INLAND. COMBO OF INSTAB
AND SHEAR NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR STORMS THIS AFTN WHEN INSTAB PEAKS. WILL
SEE ENOUGH SUN FOR HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND TO 80S CST...SSW WINDS MAY
GUST TO AROUND 20 MPH THIS AFTN FOR THE BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM / THURSDAY THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM WED...DECENT CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY WITH
APPROACHING SRT WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT...CONT CHC POPS ALL AREAS
THRU LATE EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO REGION LATE WITH
BEST PRECIP CHCS SHIFTING CLOSER TO CST AFTER 06Z. WILL BE ANOTHER
MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. SW WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY BEACHES
IN THE EVENING THEN DIMINISH LATE AS FRONT MOVES CLOSER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FCST WITH THIS
PACKAGE. LATEST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF PERIOD WITH
WEAK SHRT WV TROF OVER AREA MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY
THU...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL WEAK ENERGY FRI AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THERMAL TROF POSITION THU...AND THEN DROP
ACROSS ERN NC THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER ON THU WITH SHRT WV TROF MOVING
OFFSHORE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTN WITH FRONT APPROACHING AND THERMAL TROF JUST INLAND...THUS
CONTINUED LOW CHC POPS. DID HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO DROP POPS ALL
BUT SRN SECTIONS FOR THU NIGHT. FRONT WILL STALL OVER SRN SECTIONS
FRI AFTN BUT MODELS INDICATE SHRT WV ACTIVITY COULD STILL PRODUCE
SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY INLAND...AND KEPT 20 POPS ALL AREAS
WITH HIGHER 30 OVER SRN SEA BREEZE ZONE WITH ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE
LIKELY THERE.
UPR RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM W-SW SAT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ALLOW TEMPS TO BUILD BACK INTO LOW-MID 90S BY TUE.
FRONTAL BNDRY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO S...BUT SEA BREEZE AND
GRADUALLY VEERING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN THREAT OF ISOLATED TO
SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM WED...BULK OF PRECIP HAS MISSED TAFS TO THE E HOWEVER
SOME PDS OF MAINLY MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL LIKELY CONT A
FEW MORE HRS. LATER TODAY EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP
ESPCLY INLAND WITH MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE APPROACHING. FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH VCTS LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG/TIMING. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION
EXPECT VFR TO DOMINATE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH AGAIN POSS OF
SOME LATE NIGHT FOG POSS ESPCLY DEEP INLAND WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT.
LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WED...TYPICAL SUMMER VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FOR MOST OF PERIOD. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THU NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY...THEN STALL TO S REST OF PERIOD...BUT THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF SCT TSTMS AT MOST TAF SITES EACH DAY WITH
LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PSBL. IN AREAS WHERE RAIN OCCURS...THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DROP VSBYS TO MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM WED...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS UPDATE AS FCST REMAINS
ON TRACK.
PREV DISC...GRDNT WILL TIGHTEN LATER TODAY AS SFC TROF DEVELOPS WITH
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W. SSW WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS THIS MORN
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS THIS EVENING. AS COLD FRONT MOVES
CLOSER LATE TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WSW AND GRAD DIMINISH.
SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET THIS
EVENING...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL/SRN WTRS. SEAS SHLD DROP BELOW 5 FT
LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH.
LONG TERM /THU THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THU AS WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES FROM NW. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THU NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WIND
SHIFT TO N AND NE OVER ALL THE WATERS BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KT.
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO S WHILE HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS TO N
AND NE OF AREA...PRODUCING GRADUALLY VEERING E TO SE WINDS OVER
WEEKEND.
LATEST LOCAL NWPS AND WW3 IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST
SEAS. HEIGHTS 3-4 FT EARLY THU WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT REST OF
PERIOD.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RSB/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CTC/RF
AVIATION...CTC/RF
MARINE...RSB/CTC/RF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
635 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF DEEP TROPICAL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY EARLY
THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREEP BACK UP DURING THE LATER PART
OF THE WEEKEND...AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BUSY EVENING FOR THE WEATHER SHOP AS A VERY ACTIVE SQUALL LINE AND
LOCALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS SLOWLY WORKS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
HAVE CLEARED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES
AS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS THERE HAS DIMINISHED. WILL BE
WATCHING THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
AND LOWER SUSQ VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THINKING IS THAT
ANY FLOODING THAT ACCOMPANIES THIS LINE WILL BE OF THE MINOR-
NUISANCE VARIETY SO NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ANTICIPATED.
ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE WET MICROBURST GIVEN THE EXTREMELY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER THIS EVENING. HRRR SHOWS THINGS DIMINISHING QUICKLY AFTER
ABOUT 8-9 PM.
MIN TEMPS EARLY THURSDAY WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
NW...BUT HOLD IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE UNDER PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER AND GENERALLY A LIGHT NW WIND BEHIND THE INITIAL
CFRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SECONDARY SURGE OF SLIGHTLY COOLER /BUT MOST NOTABLY DRIER/ AIR
WILL OCCUR THURSDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PENN AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE THAT PART OF THE STATE. CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE INITIAL COLD FRONT AND BETTER DEEP LAYER LIFT BENEATH THE
THERMALLY DIRECT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 65 KT UPPER JET
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WILL CAUSE
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS EAST
THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS BEFORE DEEP-LAYER DRYING ADVECTS ACROSS
THE REGION.
UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY
FRONT WILL BRING SOME LOW STRATUS...ALONG WITH SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
TO THE LAURELS AND ADJACENT WRN MTNS THURSDAY MORNING.
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RETURN TO RATHER COMFORTABLE LEVELS IN THE IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NW TO THE MID 80S IN
THE FAR SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWD FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TO THE
SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z SAT. THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL
BECOME INCORPORATED INTO THE SEASONALLY FAMILIAR BERMUDA HIGH
CIRCULATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW SOLIDIFYING THE DEFINITE SUMMERTIME PATTERN. MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE DATA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING NORTH OF 30N WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AROUND 588M OVER CENTRAL
PA OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MEAN FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...EXPECT PERSISTENCE FORECAST
TO PERFORM REASONABLY WELL WITH INCREASINGLY HOT/HUMID AFTERNOONS
WITH WEAKLY FORCED ISOLD TO SCT AIRMASS CONVECTION GIVING WAY TO
WARM/MUGGY NIGHTS.
WITH SUMMERTIME RIDGING MAKING ITS PRESENCE FELT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWER 48...THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK...IN TURN...WILL BE LIFTED
NWD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER - WHICH IS VERY TYPICAL HEADING
INTO JULY. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA
ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA /MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO/ BY NEXT TUE-WED. PCPN
WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG SERIES OF ATTENDANT COLD FRONTS PUSHING EWD
THRU THE PLAINS/MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY. WPC SFC
PROGS SHOW A LEAD BOUNDARY REACHING THE UPPER OH VLY ON 30 JUNE
FOLLOWED BY A MORE WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION
BY 1-2 JULY. USING PWATS AS A GENERAL GUIDE...THE HIGHEST POPS
ARE LKLY IN THE SUN-WED TIMEFRAME WHEN MSTR AVAILABILITY WILL BE
+1SD ABOVE NORMAL. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVG IN SEEING TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ENHANCED AREA OF INSTABILITY IS KEEPING NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS
AND TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL PENN EARLY THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR
TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PA TAF
SITES...WITH BFD IN LIFR THROUGH 21Z. THE STRONGEST LINE EXTENDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST MOVING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS THE
LINE MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN PA AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND
BECOMING FOCUSED FROM KHGR TO KMDT AND KMUI EARLY THIS EVENING.
SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING NORTHEAST PA AT 21Z WILL DRIFT
EAST AND GREATLY TRIM THE CHC FOR SHOWERS AFTER DUSK.
LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY WEAK NW FLOW FOR MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT WILL CAUSE LOWERING CIGS WITH AREAS OF
STRATUS...1-3SM VSBYS IN FOG...AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN MTNS OF PENN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY VFR WILL OCCUR DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY CFRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH BRIEF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING OVER THE AREA. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THESE LIKELY
WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
OUTLOOK...
THU...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAINLY VFR BUT SOME LINGERING SHRA
POSSIBLE AND LOW CIGS LIKELY IN THE MORNING.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT-SUN...GENERALLY VFR...BUT LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1256 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FLOW OF DEEP TROPICAL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT OVER OH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE STATE LATE. SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR
THU AND FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREEP BACK UP DURING THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
POPS ADJUSTED UP BY 10-20 PERCENT ACROSS THE NRN MTNS WHERE A
SHIELD OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR EXPANDING THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT /FLASH FLOOD WATCH/ A FEW LAYERS OF COUNTIES TO THE SE OF
THE PRESENT WATCH COVERING NWRN PENN.
JUICY AIR WITH PWATS OF 1.5-2 INCHES AND SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F
WILL HELP TO QUICKLY INITIATE NUMEROUS MDT-HVY SHOWERS AND TSRA
ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SCENT MTNS WHERE SKIES WERE
PRACTICALLY CLEAR ATTM.
CHATTED WITH NESDIS ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING TSRA CELLS AND
EXCESSIVE RAIN ACROSS SCENT PENN AND PTS NE INTO THE MID SUSQ
VALLEY. 3-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS THE POTENTIAL WATCH
AREA IS 2.5 -3.5 INCHES IN MANY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...FAIRLY SHORT
MBE VECTORS TO THE SE FOR THE BULK OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SUGGESTS THE STRONG POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OF 2-3 INCHES.
SFC-BASED CAPE VALUES COULD GET UP AROUND 1500 J/KG TODAY...ALONG
WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR. THUS ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
THE LIMITING FACTOR ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF THE CWA WILL BE THE
EXTENSIVE LAYERED CLOUD COVER.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NW TO THE
MID 80S IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. /WITH A POTENT EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE LIFTING NE TWD THE REGION/ IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
INTO RIDGING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SLOW
PROGRESS OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. THUS WHILE TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS ON THU WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER...THERE WILL STILL BE A
CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
ALSO PUSHED THE FLOOD WATCH OUT UNTIL 06Z THU. ONE CAN CUT
WESTERN AREAS OUT LATER AS NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWD FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TO THE
SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z SAT. THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL
BECOME INCORPORATED INTO THE SEASONALLY FAMILIAR BERMUDA HIGH
CIRCULATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW SOLIDIFYING THE DEFINITE SUMMERTIME PATTERN. MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE DATA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING NORTH OF 30N WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AROUND 588M OVER CENTRAL
PA OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MEAN FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...EXPECT PERSISTENCE FORECAST
TO PERFORM REASONABLY WELL WITH INCREASINGLY HOT/HUMID AFTERNOONS
WITH WEAKLY FORCED ISOLD TO SCT AIRMASS CONVECTION GIVING WAY TO
WARM/MUGGY NIGHTS.
WITH SUMMERTIME RIDGING MAKING ITS PRESENCE FELT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWER 48...THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK...IN TURN...WILL BE LIFTED
NWD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER - WHICH IS VERY TYPICAL HEADING
INTO JULY. THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA
ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA /MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO/ BY NEXT TUE-WED. PCPN
WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG SERIES OF ATTENDANT COLD FRONTS PUSHING EWD
THRU THE PLAINS/MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY. WPC SFC
PROGS SHOW A LEAD BOUNDARY REACHING THE UPPER OH VLY ON 30 JUNE
FOLLOWED BY A MORE WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION
BY 1-2 JULY. USING PWATS AS A GENERAL GUIDE...THE HIGHEST POPS
ARE LKLY IN THE SUN-WED TIMEFRAME WHEN MSTR AVAILABILITY WILL BE
+1SD ABOVE NORMAL. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVG IN SEEING TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRAINING ECHOS OF MAINLY LIGHT RA/SHRA CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...KBFD CONTINUES TO DRIFT IN
AND OUT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LOWER STRATUS ACROSS THE SE
AIRFIELDS WITH KMDT AND KMUI STILL SOLIDLY IN MVFR CONDITIONS.
WEST OF A KTHV TO KIPT LINE...THROUGH CENTRAL PENN...MAINLY SCT
VFR CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
PERIODS OF MVFR TO BRIEF IFR WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSRA.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ALL HINT THAT BULK OF
PRECIPITATION (MOST LIKELY POPS AND QPF) REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH 16Z. HRRR SUGGESTS
THAT CONVECTION REMAINS PRETTY MUCH CONTAINED TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH 17Z...BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BREAKS OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. FOLLOWED THIS THINKING IN THE TAFS...KEEPING
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUR OF MOST CENTRAL AND EASTERN AIRFIELDS
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIMP ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WILL SHOW FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH SHIFTING WINDS AROUND 18Z IN THE WESTERN MOST TAFS...AND
AFTER 00Z IN THE EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS.
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...RAIN WILL END...BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG
AND IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THE FRONT MAY TAKE IT/S TIME MOVING OUT OF THE REGION...SO
CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST.
GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH BRIEF SURFACE HIGH RIDGING OVER THE AREA. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION INCREASE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT THESE LIKELY
WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
OUTLOOK...
THU...IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAINLY VFR BUT SOME LINGERING SHRA
POSSIBLE.
FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT-SUN...GENERALLY VFR...BUT LOCAL RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ004>006-010-011-
037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE/MARTIN
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...JUNG/LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1231 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
CONTINUING TO MONITOR STORMS FROM KEAU-KMSN LINE ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE AND CONVERGENCE LINE. THIS CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFT. INSTABILITY IS RUNNING IN THE 1400-2000
J/KG RANGE PER LATEST RAP MODEL GUIDANCE AND LOCAL LAPS ANALYSIS.
WIND SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE SIZE HAIL IN A PULSE/MULTICELL
STORM TYPE ENVIRONMENT AS DEEP SHEAR DOES NOT SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.
WITH STORMS TRAVELING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WE ARE WATCHING
CLOSELY FOR ROTATION TO SEE IF THE UPDRAFTS CAN HARNESS THE SHEAR
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. NOT VERY CONCERNED ABOUT TORNADOES BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK OR BRIEF SPIN UP. NOT SEEING ANY ROTATION
THUS FAR WITH THESE STORMS ON RADAR.
SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL THREAT TO QUARTERS SEEMS TO BE MOST PROBABLE
WITH THESE STORMS IN CENTRAL-WESTERN WI THROUGH ABOUT 21Z BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO SRN WI. ISOLATED/SMALLER CHANCES OF WIND GUSTS ABOVE
50MPH /IF CELLS CAN BECOME LINEAR/ AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT /BUT IT IS VERY REMOTE CHANCE/. THIS AREA MAY SHIFT
SLIGHTLY WEST VIA COLD OUTFLOW IF COLD POOL IS ESTABLISHED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE ON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
LATEST RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN RESPONSE TO A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS SITUATED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND RAN SOUTHEAST NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH
SURFACE HEATING TODAY WE SHOULD SEE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
CLIMB TO AROUND 400 TO 700 J/KG. IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM...MESOSCALE MODELS ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF COLD AIR FUNNEL OR TWO NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON IF
WE CAN BUILD ENOUGH CAPE. THE 06Z NAM12 DOES INDICATE SOME NON-
SUPERCELL TORNADO SIGNAL ALONG THE WIND SHIFT SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON THIS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE APPEARS
VERY LOW. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN SO THIS IS WHERE THE
NAM IS SHOWING THE NST POTENTIAL. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT GENERATING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON SO DECIDED TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND GO WITH COVERAGE WORDING OVER THESE
AREAS. WITH COOLER AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...HIGH
TEMPERATURE OVER THESE AREAS WILL BE IN THE THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
FURTHER SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST
IOWA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER BEING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND SEEING A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AT TIMES TODAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND THE RAINFALL
EXPECTED TODAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT.
THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. 25.03Z SREF GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DENS FOG POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA NORTHEAST IOWA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE NCEP
HIRES WINDOW ARW AND NMM ARE BOTH SHOWING A SIGNAL FOR THIS DENSE
FOG AS WELL. THINKING THE LOW STRATUS OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN WOULD START TO ADVECT NORTHWEST AS FLOW AT AND JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ADVECT A VERY JUICY AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT STAYS WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY BUT THEN STARTS
TO TURN EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THESE MAY GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE BETTER SUPPORT FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...CLIMBING INTO THE 1.5 TO
2.0 INCH RANGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
THIS JUICY AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THIS AIRMASS TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4.0 TO 4.5 KM.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SHEAR THEN STARTS TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY INCREASING THE THREAT
FOR SEEING OTHER SEVERE WEATHER TYPES OUTSIDE OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 KTS. THIS WILL ALL DEPEND
ON WHEN THE TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER AND MODELS ARE A LITTLE AT ODDS
WITH THIS. LOOKING AT THE ECMWF AND GFS THERE IS A TREND TO
INCREASE THE SHEAR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TRIES TO STALL OUT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
SO THIS COULD ENHANCE THE THREAT OF SEEING SOME FLASH FLOODING.
WITH THE WET SOILS OVER THE REGION WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT VERY CLOSELY THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. IT WILL FEEL
RATHER STICKY THIS WEEKEND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW UPPER 80S BUT THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
CURRENTLY WATCHING A NEARLY STATIONARY WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING NORTH/SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL WI. SOME VIGOROUS CONVECTION
WAS NOTED IN THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...
WIDESPREAD CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA WITH BASES IN THE VFR/MVFR RANGE. BELIEVE THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON...SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAINTAINED A VCSH IN THE KLSE TAF BUT REMOVED IT
FROM THE KRST TAF. EXPECTING MVFR CLOUD BASES AT KRST/KLSE TO
EVENTUALLY BECOME VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH HELP FROM SURFACE HEATING.
SIGNAL IS INCREASING FOR SOME FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND FAIRLY MOIST/HUMID AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS. THINKING FOG
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW 3SM AT BOTH KLSE/KRST AFTER 07Z WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR STRATUS CIG AT KRST AS WELL FROM 09-13Z. PLAN ON
THESE IFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MID THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK HAS LED TO SIGNIFICANT RISES
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WHILE RAINFALL IS FORECAST THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOW THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AS A FEED
OF MOISTURE RICH AIR INCREASES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...DAS
HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1155 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
CONTINUING TO MONITOR STORMS FROM KEAU-KMSN LINE ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE AND CONVERGENCE LINE. THIS CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFT. INSTABILITY IS RUNNING IN THE 1400-2000
J/KG RANGE PER LATEST RAP MODEL GUIDANCE AND LOCAL LAPS ANALYSIS.
WIND SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE SIZE HAIL IN A PULSE/MULTICELL
STORM TYPE ENVIRONMENT AS DEEP SHEAR DOES NOT SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.
WITH STORMS TRAVELING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WE ARE WATCHING
CLOSELY FOR ROTATION TO SEE IF THE UPDRAFTS CAN HARNESS THE SHEAR
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. NOT VERY CONCERNED ABOUT TORNADOES BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK OR BRIEF SPIN UP. NOT SEEING ANY ROTATION
THUS FAR WITH THESE STORMS ON RADAR.
SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL THREAT TO QUARTERS SEEMS TO BE MOST PROBABLE
WITH THESE STORMS IN CENTRAL-WESTERN WI THROUGH ABOUT 21Z BEFORE
SHIFTING INTO SRN WI. ISOLATED/SMALLER CHANCES OF WIND GUSTS ABOVE
50MPH /IF CELLS CAN BECOME LINEAR/ AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT /BUT IT IS VERY REMOTE CHANCE/. THIS AREA MAY SHIFT
SLIGHTLY WEST VIA COLD OUTFLOW IF COLD POOL IS ESTABLISHED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE ON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
LATEST RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN RESPONSE TO A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS SITUATED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND RAN SOUTHEAST NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH
SURFACE HEATING TODAY WE SHOULD SEE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
CLIMB TO AROUND 400 TO 700 J/KG. IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM...MESOSCALE MODELS ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF COLD AIR FUNNEL OR TWO NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON IF
WE CAN BUILD ENOUGH CAPE. THE 06Z NAM12 DOES INDICATE SOME NON-
SUPERCELL TORNADO SIGNAL ALONG THE WIND SHIFT SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON THIS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE APPEARS
VERY LOW. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN SO THIS IS WHERE THE
NAM IS SHOWING THE NST POTENTIAL. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT GENERATING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON SO DECIDED TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND GO WITH COVERAGE WORDING OVER THESE
AREAS. WITH COOLER AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...HIGH
TEMPERATURE OVER THESE AREAS WILL BE IN THE THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
FURTHER SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST
IOWA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER BEING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND SEEING A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AT TIMES TODAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND THE RAINFALL
EXPECTED TODAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT.
THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. 25.03Z SREF GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DENS FOG POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA NORTHEAST IOWA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE NCEP
HIRES WINDOW ARW AND NMM ARE BOTH SHOWING A SIGNAL FOR THIS DENSE
FOG AS WELL. THINKING THE LOW STRATUS OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN WOULD START TO ADVECT NORTHWEST AS FLOW AT AND JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AS A TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL
ADVECT A VERY JUICY AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT STAYS WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY BUT THEN STARTS
TO TURN EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THESE MAY GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE BETTER SUPPORT FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...CLIMBING INTO THE 1.5 TO
2.0 INCH RANGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
THIS JUICY AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THIS AIRMASS TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4.0 TO 4.5 KM.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SHEAR THEN STARTS TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY INCREASING THE THREAT
FOR SEEING OTHER SEVERE WEATHER TYPES OUTSIDE OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 KTS. THIS WILL ALL DEPEND
ON WHEN THE TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER AND MODELS ARE A LITTLE AT ODDS
WITH THIS. LOOKING AT THE ECMWF AND GFS THERE IS A TREND TO
INCREASE THE SHEAR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TRIES TO STALL OUT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
SO THIS COULD ENHANCE THE THREAT OF SEEING SOME FLASH FLOODING.
WITH THE WET SOILS OVER THE REGION WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT VERY CLOSELY THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. IT WILL FEEL
RATHER STICKY THIS WEEKEND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW UPPER 80S BUT THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED THROUGH KLSE ALREADY THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD GO THROUGH KRST SHORTLY. THIS WILL BRING THE WINDS AROUND
TO A LIGHT NORTH DIRECTION BUT ALSO ALLOW A LOW STRATUS DECK TO
ADVECT IN WITH IFR CEILINGS. THE 25.09Z RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWS THESE
CEILINGS COMING INTO BOTH TAF SITES BUT THEN LIFTS THE CEILINGS UP
TO MVFR BEFORE 15Z. THIS MOST LIKELY IS TOO FAST AND WILL HOLD
ONTO THE IFR CEILINGS A LITTLE LONGER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING ARE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
EAST AND SIMILAR TO WHAT THE 25.08Z HRRR SHOWS...BELIEVE THESE
WILL MISS KLSE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
CAPE BUILDS UP AGAIN AND WITH THE FRONT STILL IN THE AREA...MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD POP UP AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A VCSH
FOR BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE BETTER
CHANCES MAY BE OVER WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE FORCING FROM THE
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BOTH CEILINGS AND SOME FOG. SOME
INDICATIONS IN THE 25.06Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR IFR
CEILINGS...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRING ALMOST 24 HOURS OUT IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014
RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK HAS LED TO SIGNIFICANT RISES
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WHILE RAINFALL IS FORECAST THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOW THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AS A FEED
OF MOISTURE RICH AIR INCREASES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
356 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE
RIDING EAST ACROSS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
THIS FEATURE WAS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROBUST CONVECTION ALONG
AND TO THE LEE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. 0-6KM SHEAR PROFILE WAS MODEST
AT 30-40 KT COMBINED WITH SBCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. A FUNNEL CLOUD
WAS OBSERVED JUST WEST OF CHEYENNE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SEVERAL STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST
WY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION
EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST INTO THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
EVENING PER THE HRRR MODEL. A SEVERE TSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
9 PM MDT FOR ALL BUT CARBON COUNTY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER MODES
WILL BE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL FUNNEL CLOUDS AND
EVEN A WEAK TORNADO IN THE VICINITY OF BOUNDARY MERGERS.
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING. COULD
SEE SOME SHALLOW MIST OR LIGHT FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY FOR THE
PLAINS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. LOOKING AT A
MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY WITH MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT. SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LAYING
ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS DRIFTS CLOSER TO
THE WY-NE BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON. BUFR SOUNDING DATA SHOWS THE
700-850MB THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH AXIS OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY /SBCAPES 2500-3500 J/KG/ ALONG AND EAST OF
THE WY-NE BORDER...DEPICTED BY SPC/S DAY TWO SLIGHT RISK AREA.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING. WEAKER CONVECTION
MAY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT NORTH OF A DOUGLAS TO
ALLIANCE LINE WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT PROVIDING MORE INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION. RISK FOR SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...WITH ISOLATED STRONG TSTORMS POSSIBLE
FOR THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLE.
UNDER THE PRESENCE OF THE THERMAL RIDGE THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS.
700MB TEMPERATURES MODERATE FROM 15C THURSDAY TO 8C FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATUERES FRIDAY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
FAIRLY QUIET IN THE LONG RANGE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BY SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY EVENING WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
MODELS SHOW A PLEASANT WEEKEND SETTING UP FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA...AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED TSTORM NORTH OF A LINE FROM DOUGLAS TO
ALLIANCE NEBRASKA...MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY
AS A COOL FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL LOWER BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...BUT
IT WILL STILL BE WARM. AS WITH MOST CASES OF FROPA...CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MONDAY EVENING...SO KEPT POP AROUND
20 PERCENT. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL
MAINLY BE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BY THIS EVENING...AND
THEN OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT
FROM KCYS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA...INCLUDING ALL THE WESTERN
NEBRASKA TERMINALS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED JUN 25 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE SOME
WETTING RAINFALL...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AT 10 TO 15
PERCENT. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER HUMIDITIES ALONG WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI