Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/24/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
952 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WHICH WILL MOVE OVER COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK ASCENT. OVERALL MOISTURE VALUES ARE
TRENDING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S OVER LOWER
ELEVATIONS. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL CAP AROUND
750 MB SO FURTHER HEATING NEEDED. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN HIGHER INITIAL
STABILITY. NOT A LOT OF MODEL CONSENSUS WITH STORM INITIATION
TODAY AS NAM/RAP SHOWING MUCH OF THE STORMS ALONG A OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/FRONT WHICH BACKS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO FROM NEBRASKA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE HRRR HAS A MORE WEST TO EAST
PROGRESSION OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS
TO LOWER POPS A BIT OVER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
MESSY SURFACE PATTERN THIS MORNING...BUT GENERAL TREND OF PRESSURE
RISES TO OUR NORTH. EDGE OF COOLER/MOISTER AIR ALONG THE EDGE OF
OUTFLOW FROM SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS ACROSS WYOMING/NEBRASKA...
ROUGHLY AKRON TO TORRINGTON AND NORTHWEST FROM THERE. PRESSURE
RISES APPEAR TO BE BETTER ORGANIZED AGAIN AT THE MOMENT...SO THE
IDEA OF THIS BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
STILL LOOKS GOOD. AT FIRST THIS AIR WILL BE COOLER...WITH A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION HOLDING BACK CONVECTION THIS MORNING. SEVERAL
THINGS HAPPEN THIS AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN
DECENT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. FIRST...LIFT AND A LITTLE COOLING
ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...DESTABILIZING THE DEEPER
ATMOSPHERE. SECOND...CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE COOL LAYER
WHICH WILL ERODE THE LOW LEVEL CAP. THIRD...LIKELY OUTFLOW FROM
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION NORTH OF US WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE BETTER
MOISTURE FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL INCREASE CAPE
VALUES AND WIPE OUT THE CAP LATE IN THE DAY.
ENVIRONMENT WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE MORE MOISTURE THAN THE LAST FEW
DAYS...BUT THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE INCREASING SHEAR AS
THE DAY GOES ON. BY THIS EVENING THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE UP
AROUND 40 KNOTS. CAPE VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE
BUT WITH THAT AMOUNT OF SHEAR THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE HAIL
PRODUCTION...AND EVENTUALLY TO ALLOW ENOUGH ORGANIZATION FOR SOME
WIND THREAT AS WELL. INITIALLY THE NORTH SIDE OF STORMS WILL BE
FAVORED...COULD BE CONVECTION MOVING NORTHEAST OFF OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR STORMS THAT SPLIT WITH THE
LEFT SIDE FAVORED. LATER THIS EVENING THE SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE
LINEAR...WITH CONVERGENCE ON THE FRONT HELPING KEEP THINGS MOVING
DESPITE SLOW MEAN WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOME CONCERN ABOUT
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS...BUT
OVERALL WIND PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR TO LEND ITSELF TO
TRAINING/BACKBUILDING WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF REGENERATION
OVER THE FOOTHILLS. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE.
SOME OF THE MODELS WANT TO END CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING...I
AM SKEPTICAL OF THIS GIVEN THAT THE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MOIST OUTFLOW TO
GENERATE NEW CONVECTION. I SHIFTED THE POPS MORE TO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS WHERE IT APPEARS THE BEST MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE OVER NORTHERN CO WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH ELY
WINDS ADVECTING BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THE AFTN SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY WITH CAPES AROUND
1100 J/KG AROUND DENVER AND AKRON...WITH HIGHER VALUES OF 1600
J/KG AT LIMON. PW VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER THE NERN
PLAINS AND NEAR 0.75 INCHES IN DENVER. FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTN AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. LOW LEVEL ESELY WINDS WL LIKELY
SET UP A DENVER CYCLONE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK LANDSPOUT OR
TWO ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MDLS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME QPF ACROSS
THE NERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. NOT MUCH CHANGE REALLY FOR
TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT MAY BE A BIT WEAKER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER INSTABILITY IN THE AFTN. WITH
THE HIGHER PW VALUES AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS...THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING TSTMS WILL ADD TO THE ALREADY PRESENT SEVERE
TSTM THREAT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSITION ACROSS ERN CO
BY WEDNESDAY...WITH A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
COLORADO. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THERE MAY BE SOME DRYING ALONG THE
URBAN CORRIDOR...BUT THE NERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN MOIST. BEST TSTMS
COVERAGE WILL BE EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH LESSENING POPS
TO THE WEST. THE TREND FOR WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE THEN
PROGGED TO RETURN BY SATURDAY. THE MDLS VARY QUITE A BIT WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN AS THE NEXT SYSTEM FM THE PAC NORTHWEST BRINGS
COOLER WEATHER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR TSTMS. THE GFS KEEPS THIS
SYSTEM MORE TO THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MDLS ARE SLOWER AND DIG THE TROUGH INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY. NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME...WL
KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY PRESENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 933 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
THERE IS SOME LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AT LOCAL TERMINALS BUT THE
FORECAST OF NORTHEAST WINDS AT 18Z MAY NOT MATERIALIZE AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS WEAKER THAN EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE A STRONGER
FRONTAL PUSH LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OVERALL WON`T CHANGE MUCH WITHOUT A
CLEAR SIGNAL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TODAY WILL COMBINE WITH SLOW
STORM MOTIONS TO PRODUCE A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. IN GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOVING...BUT SLOWLY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH IN AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS NEAR THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE PLAINS MOISTURE
WILL BE GREATER BY THIS EVENING...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES IN 1 TO 2
HOURS POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIER END OF THESE AMOUNTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. WHILE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS MAINLY ON THE
PLAINS...THERE IS SOME THREAT TO THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 9 PM WHEN THERE COULD BE SUSTAINED
EASTERLY WINDS THAT COULD PRODUCE REPEATED THUNDERSTORM CELLS.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND NO CLEAR FOCUS...AT THIS TIME THE THREAT
DOES NOT APPEAR HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. AREAS
WEST OF THE FRONT RANGE WILL HAVE LESS MOISTURE.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE PARKED ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE WITH WEAK ESELY SFC WINDS.
HIGHER PW VALUES WILL BE PRESENT. THE STORM MOTIONS ON MONDAY WILL
HELP TO OFFSET THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. SLIGHTLY LESSER STORM
MOTIONS ON TUESDAY MAY ELEVATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
IT WILL DRY OUT FROM THE URBAN CORRIDOR WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...
BUT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAIN PRODUCING TSTMS WL CONTINUE OVER
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
HYDROLOGY...COOPER/GIMMESTAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
847 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
.UPDATE...ACTIVITY TO PERSIST A FEW MORE HOURS NORTH OF ALMA GA
AND FLAGLER TO SRN MARION COUNTIES...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT. CURRENT LOW TEMP FORECAST LOOKS FINE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT TAF SITES. LATEST HRRR CEILING
GUIDANCE HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LOW CLOUDS FOR A FEW
HOURS TOWARD DAWN. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR 700-900 MB
LAYER...SO LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUDS AT THIS POINT...NEXT SHIFT
WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS POTENTIAL FOR NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KTS AND 2-3 FT SEAS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDSAY...NO CHANGES PLANNED IN NEXT CWF
ISSUANCE.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THRU TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 71 90 70 94 / 30 60 60 50
SSI 75 86 74 90 / 20 60 60 40
JAX 71 91 72 93 / 10 60 60 50
SGJ 73 88 73 89 / 20 60 60 40
GNV 70 90 71 93 / 20 60 50 40
OCF 71 90 71 93 / 40 50 40 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WOLF/STRUBLE/WALKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1254 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1126 AM CDT
MAIN UPDATES THIS MORNING WERE TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUE TO LIFT/DISSIPATE LATE THIS MORNING WITH
SKIES BECOMING MORE PARTLY CLOUDY TO AT TIMES PARTLY
SUNNY. TEMPERATURES ARE STEADILY REBOUNDING AND WILL RISE INTO THE
MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS...WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN
THE 60S AND STILL PROVIDING FOR SOME MUGGY CONDITIONS. NOT OVERLY
CONCERNED AT THIS TIME...BUT AM DEFINITELY WATCHING COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IOWA. MOST GUIDANCE
THIS MORNING HAS THIS COMPLEX REACHING THE FAR WESTERN CWA BY
EARLY EVENING...BUT RAPIDLY WEAKENING AT THAT TIME. THIS SCENARIO
DOES SEEM POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY IN PLACE WOULD BE LOWERING. IF
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WERE TO TAKE ON A MORE STEADY PACE
EASTWARD TODAY...THEY COULD BE NEAR THE FAR WESTERN CWA BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BE CONCERNING AS HIGH DEWPOINT AIR
POOLING ALONG A LINGERING BOUNDARY/TROUGH AXIS AS WELL AS STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE COULD AID IN
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN
CWA...PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 39. THE UNCERTAINTIES
IN PLACE HAVE PRECLUDED ANY HIGHER WORDING FOR THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AS WELL AS HIGHER POPS OUT WEST BEYOND THE
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL AND MAKE
NECESSARY UPDATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS NEED BE.
RODRIGUEZ
//PREV DISCUSSION...
348 AM CDT
A RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE
WEATHER DETAILS...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY MOIST...WITH PWATS OF 1.5 TO ALMOST 2.0
INCHES ACROSS THE MIDWEST...UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION...
WHILE A VERY WEAK GRADIENT SFC PATTERN COVERS THE REGION. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SFC FORCING...ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL LARGELY RELY ON UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AS THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF UPPER LEVELS FEATURES WILL BE RATHER
WEAK.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN THAT SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY HAD
INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG SPREADING OFF THE LAKE INTO
NERN IL. WITH CI OBSCURING ANY LOW FEATURES IN THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...HAVE FOLLOWED SFC OB TRENDS...WHICH GENERALLY INDICATE LOW
STRATUS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. HAVE HELD
OFF ON ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW SINCE THE DENSE FOG
APPEARS TO BE RATHER SPOTTY. WITH MORE HIGH CLOUD OVERSPREADING THE
REGION...THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG WITH VIS AT OR LESS
THAN 1/4SM SEEMS LIMITED. FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY...HAVE BACKED
OFF ON POPS OVER ALL OF THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH
AS THE AREA RECOVERS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. A VERY WEAK AND
DIFFUSE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL IL
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD IGNITE
SOME TSRA/SHRA TODAY...AND SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHICH WILL NOT SEE THE STRATUS AND FOG. ANOTHER
CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE MOVING
INLAND. WITH A VERY WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE...LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IF NERON IL CAN BURN OFF THE
STRATUS AND FOR EARLY ENOUGH TO SET UP ADEQUATE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BETWEEN THE COLD LAKE AND WARMER LAND. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...ADDITION FOG TRAPPED UNDER A MARINE LAYER INVERSION WOULD
LIKELY PUSH INLAND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SO..WHILE IT WOULD BE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNUSUAL TO THINK ABOUT INTRODUCING FOG AND/OR
STRATUS INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE UNUSUALLY
COLD LAKE WATERS MAKE THIS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. ANTICIPATE THAT
THE REST OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY...WITH THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PCPN NOT COMING UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH AN UPPER LOW REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER LAKE WINNIPEG AND
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN CONUS AND THE GLFMEX...WEAK ZONAL
FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES RIPPLING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS IS
TYPICAL FOR ZONAL FLOW...TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IS VERY
DIFFICULT...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT ON
TRACKING A MODERATE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD THEN
CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FEATURE
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND IS WELL INITIALIZED IN THE GLOBAL MODELS...SO IN DEFERENCE TO
GOOD INITIALIZATION AND THE RELATIVELY DECENT MODEL CONTINUITY...HAVE
GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND WEAK STEERING FLOW AS
THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. AS THERE HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER THE REGION IN RECENT DAYS...THE GROUND IS
LARGELY SATURATED AND AREA RIVERS HAVE LESS CAPACITY FROM THE
RESULTANT RUNOFF...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED. THERE IS A SMALL SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...AWAY FROM THE
STABILIZATION OF THE LAKE BREEZE/MARINE LAYER MOVING INLAND.
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
RAPIDLY. THE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA IS EXPECTED TO SHOW LITTLE
PROGRESSION WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. WHILE THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN
ALOFT...TIMING ANY OF THE SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
BE DIFFICULT. SO...WHILE THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SATURDAY...MAY SOUND LIKE A BROKEN
RECORD (AT LEAST TO THOSE OF US OLD ENOUGH TO REMEMBER RECORDS AND
WHAT THEY SOUND LIKE WHEN BROKEN)...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE IN SITU CONDITIONS WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...ANY MID
LEVEL FORCING FROM PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL BE ADEQUATE TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SO...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* INCREASING CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
* EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND NEAR THRESHOLD OF STAYING ON WEST FLOW
FOR ORD.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS IOWA TODAY
HAS NOT BEEN WELL HANDLED BY ALL MODELS...SO IT IS HARD TO PIN
DOWN THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THESE WILL HANG
TOGETHER INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA AND REACH RFD
BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATER
THIS EVENING MAY DAMPEN CONVECTION SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNDOWN AS THEY
WORK INTO THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. EVEN SO...HAVE MOVED UP START
TIME OF VCSH AT ORD/MDW TERMINALS.
GIVEN THE DEEP AND MOIST BUT RELATIVELY WARM VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
AND MOISTURE PROFILE...NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH THUNDER THE AREA WILL
SEE AHEAD OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD MIDDAY TOMORROW...BUT
INCLUDED A WINDOW OF VCTS CORRESPONDING TO APPROXIMATE TIME OF
FROPA.
AS FOR WINDS...EXPECT GRADUAL VEERING THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A
TURN TOWARD WESTERLY AFTER FROPA TOMORROW. LIGHT SPEEDS FOR MOST
OF THE AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW CONTINUED WEST FLOW CONFIGURATION AT
ORD...BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A COUPLE OF KTS AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
LENNING
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SHRA TIMING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...TSRA LIKELY.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
205 AM CDT
A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SEEN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY DUE
TO EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN LAKES INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS REGIME OFFERS ONSHORE FLOW INTO ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
THAT SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KT DURING MIDDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY SUNDOWN. THIS SETUP WILL ALSO ALLOW DENSE FOG TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE TURNOVER
OF THE MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE COOL WATERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE LAKE ON MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF IT MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF
THIS AND COULD PUSH THE FOG FURTHER NORTH ON MONDAY. IN
ADDITION...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND COULD DISRUPT
SOME OF THE FOG AS WELL. SO HAVE NOT EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ANY FURTHER THAN MONDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE IT MAY NEED TO BE.
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PASS VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND TURN WINDS WESTERLY. A SECOND COLD FRONT...MORE OF A BACKDOOR
ONE...IS ANTICIPATED TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND LEAD
TO NORTHERLY WINDS.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-
LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-
LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1224 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1005 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2014
Convection developed just southwest of our CWA earlier this
morning, along the remnants of the outflow boundary from
yesterday`s storms. Latest surface map shows this boundary arcing
northwest along the Mississippi River then into central Iowa,
where a line of strong storms was moving through that area. Have
been seeing some increase in showers recently along this boundary
in the northeast corner of Missouri, and this should increase over
the next few hours. Latest RAP and HRRR guidance showing the
western CWA still with the best chances for showers/storms today,
with some more isolated activity across the east.
Have updated the zones/grids to reflect the storms mainly being
during the afternoon, as well as some adjustments to the sky
cover. Temperatures are largely in good shape and only required
some minor adjustments over the next few hours.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1222 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2014
Scattered convection has developed over western Illinois and is
slowly moving east. AWIPS timing tools would place it in the
KPIA/KSPI area in the 20-21Z time frame, but some uncertainty in
the eastward progression, so will limit afternoon VCTS mention to
these two sites at the moment, and bring them into KBMI/KDEC
toward 00Z. A larger area of showers and scattered storms is
expected to move through after 06Z. Then after a short break
beginning near sunrise, additional convective development is
anticipated toward the end of the forecast period, as a cold front
moves in from the northwest.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2014
Though an area of showers and thunderstorms moved across much of
ILX yesterday evening, the air mass overall remains very much the
same. Hot and humid conditions persist. A weak frontal boundary
has meandered just north of the area and the next couple of
impulses are just to the west, lining up for arrival later today.
In between waves, much of this morning may be dry in most
locations. Not taking out the possibility for some very isolated
showers...but chances will increase this afternoon/later this
evening with the approach of the next wave. Surface low associated
with the next wave is weak and as a result, models are not doing
well with its evolution in the weak pattern as a whole. Models
continue to over produce the coverage of the convection, then
suffer the feedback issues. Chance/slight chance dominates, with
some minor adjustments for drier pds. Temps above normal and heat
indices in the 90s to wrap up the weekend until the next cool
front moves through Mon/Mon afternoon.
SHORT TERM...Today and tonight...
Hot. Humid. Heat indices into the mid 90s and chances of precip
increasing into the afternoon/evening hours. Waves to the west
showing varied paths and models connecting the dots on the qpf
leave a lot to be desired. Waves passing north and south remain a
possibility, but diurnal impacts and enhancement is just too
strong a possibility with leftover outflows in the region to NOT
have pops around this evening. Very similar tune to the trend from
the past few days. Coverage sporadic, plenty of ingredients to
work with, just non consistent triggers.
LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...
Upper trof/wave pushing through the region on Monday into Tuesday
bringing signif chance, increasing from Sun night into Monday
night. Models speeding up with initial arrival of boundary on
Monday, and slowing its departure...as this run has been a little
more diffuse with the pops and may see this trending with a +/- 12
hrs on either side. Not an absolute at this point, but
Monday/Monday night having the best chances at significant precip
through the fcst. A slightly cooler Tuesday through the end
of the week. Still warm, but potentially less humidity as winds
become more westerly on Tuesday, picking up a northerly component
by Wednesday. Forecast trending drier from late Tuesday through
Wednesday. Another wave Thursday brings back some pops ahead of
the next big storm system developing over the SW for late next
weekend.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1109 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
348 AM CDT
A RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE
WEATHER DETAILS...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY MOIST...WITH PWATS OF 1.5 TO ALMOST 2.0
INCHES ACROSS THE MIDWEST...UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION...
WHILE A VERY WEAK GRADIENT SFC PATTERN COVERS THE REGION. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SFC FORCING...ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL LARGELY RELY ON UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AS THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF UPPER LEVELS FEATURES WILL BE RATHER
WEAK.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN THAT SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST SATELLITE FOG IMAGERY HAD
INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG SPREADING OFF THE LAKE INTO
NERN IL. WITH CI OBSCURING ANY LOW FEATURES IN THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...HAVE FOLLOWED SFC OB TRENDS...WHICH GENERALLY INDICATE LOW
STRATUS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. HAVE HELD
OFF ON ISSUING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW SINCE THE DENSE FOG
APPEARS TO BE RATHER SPOTTY. WITH MORE HIGH CLOUD OVERSPREADING THE
REGION...THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG WITH VIS AT OR LESS
THAN 1/4SM SEEMS LIMITED. FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY...HAVE BACKED
OFF ON POPS OVER ALL OF THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH
AS THE AREA RECOVERS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. A VERY WEAK AND
DIFFUSE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL IL
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD IGNITE
SOME TSRA/SHRA TODAY...AND SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHICH WILL NOT SEE THE STRATUS AND FOG. ANOTHER
CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE MOVING
INLAND. WITH A VERY WEAK GRADIENT IN PLACE...LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IF NERON IL CAN BURN OFF THE
STRATUS AND FOR EARLY ENOUGH TO SET UP ADEQUATE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BETWEEN THE COLD LAKE AND WARMER LAND. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...ADDITION FOG TRAPPED UNDER A MARINE LAYER INVERSION WOULD
LIKELY PUSH INLAND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SO..WHILE IT WOULD BE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNUSUAL TO THINK ABOUT INTRODUCING FOG AND/OR
STRATUS INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE UNUSUALLY
COLD LAKE WATERS MAKE THIS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. ANTICIPATE THAT
THE REST OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD BE DRY...WITH THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PCPN NOT COMING UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH AN UPPER LOW REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER LAKE WINNIPEG AND
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SRN CONUS AND THE GLFMEX...WEAK ZONAL
FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES RIPPLING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS IS
TYPICAL FOR ZONAL FLOW...TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IS VERY
DIFFICULT...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT ON
TRACKING A MODERATE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD THEN
CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING THE
NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FEATURE
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND IS WELL INITIALIZED IN THE GLOBAL MODELS...SO IN DEFERENCE TO
GOOD INITIALIZATION AND THE RELATIVELY DECENT MODEL CONTINUITY...HAVE
GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND WEAK STEERING FLOW AS
THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. AS THERE HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER THE REGION IN RECENT DAYS...THE GROUND IS
LARGELY SATURATED AND AREA RIVERS HAVE LESS CAPACITY FROM THE
RESULTANT RUNOFF...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED. THERE IS A SMALL SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...AWAY FROM THE
STABILIZATION OF THE LAKE BREEZE/MARINE LAYER MOVING INLAND.
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES
RAPIDLY. THE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA IS EXPECTED TO SHOW LITTLE
PROGRESSION WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. WHILE THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN
ALOFT...TIMING ANY OF THE SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL
BE DIFFICULT. SO...WHILE THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SATURDAY...MAY SOUND LIKE A BROKEN
RECORD (AT LEAST TO THOSE OF US OLD ENOUGH TO REMEMBER RECORDS AND
WHAT THEY SOUND LIKE WHEN BROKEN)...THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE IN SITU CONDITIONS WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...ANY MID
LEVEL FORCING FROM PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL BE ADEQUATE TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SO...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS.
* SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL INCREASES OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
ANOTHER LATE JUNE MORNING OF UNCLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED DENSE FOG
AND STRATUS OVER/NEAR THE TAF SITES. A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE HAS ALLOWED FOR THIS FOG AND
STRATUS...PARTLY ENHANCED AGAIN BY THE MARINE LAYER OFF COOL LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR A SIMILAR TIME AS
YESTERDAY...AS THE STRATUS LAYER LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO NEAR 10
KT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING MAY
AGAIN BRING IN FOG OR STRATUS AFTER DARK. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT THE FOG FROM
GETTING AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE PAST FEW DAYS. WARM AIR ADVECTION
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. THESE MAY OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW OVERALL IN THAT TAF
ASPECT...BUT THINK MONDAY MORNING WILL AT LEAST SEE SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION AND SPEEDS TODAY.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON SHRA/TSRA START TIME TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...TSRA LIKELY.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
205 AM CDT
A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SEEN OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TODAY DUE
TO EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN LAKES INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS REGIME OFFERS ONSHORE FLOW INTO ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
THAT SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KT DURING MIDDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY SUNDOWN. THIS SETUP WILL ALSO ALLOW DENSE FOG TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE TURNOVER
OF THE MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE COOL WATERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH THE LAKE ON MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF IT MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF
THIS AND COULD PUSH THE FOG FURTHER NORTH ON MONDAY. IN
ADDITION...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND COULD DISRUPT
SOME OF THE FOG AS WELL. SO HAVE NOT EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ANY FURTHER THAN MONDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE IT MAY NEED TO BE.
THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PASS VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AND TURN WINDS WESTERLY. A SECOND COLD FRONT...MORE OF A BACKDOOR
ONE...IS ANTICIPATED TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND LEAD
TO NORTHERLY WINDS.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-
LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-
LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1005 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1005 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2014
Convection developed just southwest of our CWA earlier this
morning, along the remnants of the outflow boundary from
yesterday`s storms. Latest surface map shows this boundary arcing
northwest along the Mississippi River then into central Iowa,
where a line of strong storms was moving through that area. Have
been seeing some increase in showers recently along this boundary
in the northeast corner of Missouri, and this should increase over
the next few hours. Latest RAP and HRRR guidance showing the
western CWA still with the best chances for showers/storms today,
with some more isolated activity across the east.
Have updated the zones/grids to reflect the storms mainly being
during the afternoon, as well as some adjustments to the sky
cover. Temperatures are largely in good shape and only required
some minor adjustments over the next few hours.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 651 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2014
Weak high pressure over IL will provide light and variable winds
with light fog early this morning. Ground fog has generally
remained clear of the TAF sites, but is lingering in nearby fields
per surrounding observations. Will keep all TAF sites VFR this
morning as a result. Next concern is when storms will develop over
the next 24 hours. There remains a large spread in the model
guidance on storm initiation and coverage. The GFS remains the
most aggressive with storms later this afternoon and evening. The
00z NAM, Canadian, and ECMWF have slowed down the development of
storms until possibly later tonight, and mainly west of I-55. The
HRRR 3km model is still indicating a line of storms reaching near
the IL river by 00z this evening, but is the outlier of the latest
runs of the high res models. Will only include a VCSH later
tonight after 09z for now. Would not be surprised to see a pop-up
shower or storm late this afternoon and evening.
Winds will remain generally light and variable due to a weak
pressure gradient. Some southerly winds may develop for PIA and
SPI as the next shortwave aloft approaches IL this afternoon.
Wind speeds should remain less than 10kt at all terminal sites.
Shimon
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2014
Though an area of showers and thunderstorms moved across much of
ILX yesterday evening, the air mass overall remains very much the
same. Hot and humid conditions persist. A weak frontal boundary
has meandered just north of the area and the next couple of
impulses are just to the west, lining up for arrival later today.
In between waves, much of this morning may be dry in most
locations. Not taking out the possibility for some very isolated
showers...but chances will increase this afternoon/later this
evening with the approach of the next wave. Surface low associated
with the next wave is weak and as a result, models are not doing
well with its evolution in the weak pattern as a whole. Models
continue to over produce the coverage of the convection, then
suffer the feedback issues. Chance/slight chance dominates, with
some minor adjustments for drier pds. Temps above normal and heat
indices in the 90s to wrap up the weekend until the next cool
front moves through Mon/Mon afternoon.
SHORT TERM...Today and tonight...
Hot. Humid. Heat indices into the mid 90s and chances of precip
increasing into the afternoon/evening hours. Waves to the west
showing varied paths and models connecting the dots on the qpf
leave a lot to be desired. Waves passing north and south remain a
possibility, but diurnal impacts and enhancement is just too
strong a possibility with leftover outflows in the region to NOT
have pops around this evening. Very similar tune to the trend from
the past few days. Coverage sporadic, plenty of ingredients to
work with, just non consistent triggers.
LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...
Upper trof/wave pushing through the region on Monday into Tuesday
bringing signif chance, increasing from Sun night into Monday
night. Models speeding up with initial arrival of boundary on
Monday, and slowing its departure...as this run has been a little
more diffuse with the pops and may see this trending with a +/- 12
hrs on either side. Not an absolute at this point, but
Monday/Monday night having the best chances at significant precip
through the fcst. A slightly cooler Tuesday through the end
of the week. Still warm, but potentially less humidity as winds
become more westerly on Tuesday, picking up a northerly component
by Wednesday. Forecast trending drier from late Tuesday through
Wednesday. Another wave Thursday brings back some pops ahead of
the next big storm system developing over the SW for late next
weekend.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
102 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE DVN CWA UNTIL
7 PM THIS EVENING. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR NW CWA MOVING INTO
SBCAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG. THIS LINE HAS ALREADY PRODUCED STRONG
WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAD A
REPORT OF 2.40 INCHES OF RAIN IN BENTON COUNTY WITH THIS LINE.
OTHER STORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO AND
WILL UPSCALE THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
HAVE INCREASED POPS WEST OF THE MS RIVER AS MCS CONTINUES TO MAKE
SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL IA. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN
EASTERN IA AHEAD OF THE MCS WITH SBCAPES ALREADY NEARING 3000 J/KG
WITH DCAPE ALSO INCREASING. SPC HAS ADDED EASTERN IA TO A SLIGHT
RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT WITH
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL ALSO. STORMS WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY SO
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS
INCREASE TO OVER 1.50 INCHES. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY RAINS HAVE FALLEN IN THE
PAST WEEK.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NE WITH
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA. DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE FRONTAL
ZONE SUPPORTING FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG HWY 20 CORRIDOR IN
PARTICULAR. ALOFT...NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AT 500MB
WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FESTERING
WEAK CONVECTION VICINITY LSX AND MORE VIGOROUS STORMS OVER NW IA
CURRENTLY HEADED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL PRECIP TODAY.
RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN LARGELY
OVERDONE...THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS IS
LOWER THAN NORMAL. ECMWF FOR EXAMPLE GROSSLY OVERFORECAST FORCING
AND PRECIP YESTERDAY. THUS...FOR SHORT TERM WILL RELY ON BLEND OF
THIS MORNINGS MORE CONSERVATIVE HRRR...NAM...AND RUC.
STORMS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST IA ARE HINTED AT BY HRRR AND RUC.
BOTH AGREE WITH WEAKENING TREND AS THE CONVECTION COMES UP AGAINST
THE UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION...THE MOST LIKELY
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN LOCALLY WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SLIDES A BIT FARTHER EAST AND A SHORT WAVE PUSHES INTO WESTERN IA.
CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE IN CENTRAL IA AND PUSH EAST INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES
HAVE BEEN LOWERED ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THIS MORNING AND SHIFTED A
BIT WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AS WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND A STRONGER SHORT WAVE OVERTAKE THE
REGION.
DMD
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING STILL ON TRACK FOR BEST PCPN CHCS IN
NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON WHETHER ANY PHASING
OCCURS BETWEEN SOUTHERN CANADA SHORTWAVE AND ENERGY RIPPLING IN
UNDERCUTTING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW... WITH MOST OF RECENT MODELS NOW
SHOWING NO PHASING. PHASING WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON PCPN
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE... AS MORE PHASED SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT MCS
WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINS OF 1-3+ INCHES. BUT... ATTIM THE
FCST IS TRENDING LOWER ON QPF AMOUNTS AND HARBORS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON PCPN COVERAGE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING GIVEN LACK OF PHASING
SUGGESTED BY MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE CONCERN WITH NO PHASING IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF AREA TO BE SPLIT BY BETTER COVERAGE WITH
ONE DISTURBANCE AND MORE CONCENTRATED BATCH OF CONVECTION LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO UPPER MIDWEST AND AWAY FROM CWA... WHILE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHIFTS E/SE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS DIVING INTO BEST
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AXIS. WITH THAT BEING SAID... GIVEN HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.8 INCHES AND DECENT UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WOULD ANTICIPATE STILL GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ON MONDAY WITH RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
TUE-TUE NIGHT... SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS APPEAR ON TAP
WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF FRONT.
WED-SAT... PATTERN SET TO RETURN UNSETTLED/ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES POSSIBLY IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BEFORE TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH. SHOULD SEE A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN BOTH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
BY LATE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE BUT MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED TO LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THEN MORE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BUT MUCH HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
AREA TRIBUTARY RIVERS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80...AS WELL AS THE
MAINSTEM MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO NEXT WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL EXISTS NEXT 36-48 HRS...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN AND
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SOME GOOD NEWS THIS AM IN
THAT WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL 1-3+ INCHES NOW MORE LOCALIZED POTENTIAL AS MODELS HAVE
GENERALLY BACKED OFF TO A WEAKER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA.
WOULD LIKE TO STRESS THAT WHILE THIS IS THE CASE THIS AM... THIS
IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AND COULD CHANGE AS MODELS CONTINUALLY
DIVERGING... THUS CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM THAT HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS MORE
LOCALIZED AND NOT AS WIDESPREAD. RIVER SITES THAT ARE CURRENTLY
UNDER A WARNING ARE FORECAST TO SEE MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT
BURLINGTON...WHERE MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...SHOULD
A HEAVY SOAKING RAIN OF 1 TO 3+ INCHES OCCUR OVER ANY RIVER BASINS
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN RENEWED RISES AND HIGHER CREST LEVELS
WOULD BE LIKELY. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ON AREA RIVERS OR WHO
WOULD BE IMPACTED BY HIGH WATER LEVELS SHOULD PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...DMD
SHORT TERM...DMD
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE
HYDROLOGY...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1004 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
HAVE INCREASED POPS WEST OF THE MS RIVER AS MCS CONTINUES TO MAKE
SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL IA. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN
EASTERN IA AHEAD OF THE MCS WITH SBCAPES ALREADY NEARING 3000 J/KG
WITH DCAPE ALSO INCREASING. SPC HAS ADDED EASTERN IA TO A SLIGHT
RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT WITH
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL ALSO. STORMS WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY SO
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS
INCREASE TO OVER 1.50 INCHES. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY RAINS HAVE FALLEN IN THE
PAST WEEK.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NE WITH
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA. DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE FRONTAL
ZONE SUPPORTING FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG HWY 20 CORRIDOR IN
PARTICULAR. ALOFT...NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AT 500MB
WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FESTERING
WEAK CONVECTION VICINITY LSX AND MORE VIGOROUS STORMS OVER NW IA
CURRENTLY HEADED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL PRECIP TODAY.
RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN LARGELY
OVERDONE...THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS IS
LOWER THAN NORMAL. ECMWF FOR EXAMPLE GROSSLY OVERFORECAST FORCING
AND PRECIP YESTERDAY. THUS...FOR SHORT TERM WILL RELY ON BLEND OF
THIS MORNINGS MORE CONSERVATIVE HRRR...NAM...AND RUC.
STORMS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST IA ARE HINTED AT BY HRRR AND RUC.
BOTH AGREE WITH WEAKENING TREND AS THE CONVECTION COMES UP AGAINST
THE UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION...THE MOST LIKELY
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN LOCALLY WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SLIDES A BIT FARTHER EAST AND A SHORT WAVE PUSHES INTO WESTERN IA.
CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE IN CENTRAL IA AND PUSH EAST INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES
HAVE BEEN LOWERED ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THIS MORNING AND SHIFTED A
BIT WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AS WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND A STRONGER SHORT WAVE OVERTAKE THE
REGION.
DMD
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING STILL ON TRACK FOR BEST PCPN CHCS IN
NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON WHETHER ANY PHASING
OCCURS BETWEEN SOUTHERN CANADA SHORTWAVE AND ENERGY RIPPLING IN
UNDERCUTTING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW... WITH MOST OF RECENT MODELS NOW
SHOWING NO PHASING. PHASING WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON PCPN
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE... AS MORE PHASED SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT MCS
WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINS OF 1-3+ INCHES. BUT... ATTIM THE
FCST IS TRENDING LOWER ON QPF AMOUNTS AND HARBORS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON PCPN COVERAGE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING GIVEN LACK OF PHASING
SUGGESTED BY MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE CONCERN WITH NO PHASING IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF AREA TO BE SPLIT BY BETTER COVERAGE WITH
ONE DISTURBANCE AND MORE CONCENTRATED BATCH OF CONVECTION LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO UPPER MIDWEST AND AWAY FROM CWA... WHILE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHIFTS E/SE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS DIVING INTO BEST
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AXIS. WITH THAT BEING SAID... GIVEN HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.8 INCHES AND DECENT UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WOULD ANTICIPATE STILL GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ON MONDAY WITH RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
TUE-TUE NIGHT... SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS APPEAR ON TAP
WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF FRONT.
WED-SAT... PATTERN SET TO RETURN UNSETTLED/ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES POSSIBLY IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BEFORE TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH. SHOULD SEE A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN BOTH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
BY LATE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER WESTERN IOWA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN IOWA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX FROM MID
DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT AREA TAF SITES FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH MVFR
AND POSSIBLY LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MONDAY.
DMD
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
AREA TRIBUTARY RIVERS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80...AS WELL AS THE
MAINSTEM MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO NEXT WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL EXISTS NEXT 36-48 HRS...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN AND
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SOME GOOD NEWS THIS AM IN
THAT WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL 1-3+ INCHES NOW MORE LOCALIZED POTENTIAL AS MODELS HAVE
GENERALLY BACKED OFF TO A WEAKER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA.
WOULD LIKE TO STRESS THAT WHILE THIS IS THE CASE THIS AM... THIS
IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AND COULD CHANGE AS MODELS CONTINUALLY
DIVERGING... THUS CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM THAT HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS MORE
LOCALIZED AND NOT AS WIDESPREAD. RIVER SITES THAT ARE CURRENTLY
UNDER A WARNING ARE FORECAST TO SEE MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT
BURLINGTON...WHERE MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...SHOULD
A HEAVY SOAKING RAIN OF 1 TO 3+ INCHES OCCUR OVER ANY RIVER BASINS
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN RENEWED RISES AND HIGHER CREST LEVELS
WOULD BE LIKELY. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ON AREA RIVERS OR WHO
WOULD BE IMPACTED BY HIGH WATER LEVELS SHOULD PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...DMD
SHORT TERM...DMD
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...DMD
HYDROLOGY...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
713 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NE WITH
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA. DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE FRONTAL
ZONE SUPPORTING FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG HWY 20 CORRIDOR IN
PARTICULAR. ALOFT...NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AT 500MB
WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FESTERING
WEAK CONVECTION VICINITY LSX AND MORE VIGOROUS STORMS OVER NW IA
CURRENTLY HEADED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL PRECIP TODAY.
RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN LARGELY
OVERDONE...THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS IS
LOWER THAN NORMAL. ECMWF FOR EXAMPLE GROSSLY OVERFORECAST FORCING
AND PRECIP YESTERDAY. THUS...FOR SHORT TERM WILL RELY ON BLEND OF
THIS MORNINGS MORE CONSERVATIVE HRRR...NAM...AND RUC.
STORMS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST IA ARE HINTED AT BY HRRR AND RUC.
BOTH AGREE WITH WEAKENING TREND AS THE CONVECTION COMES UP AGAINST
THE UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION...THE MOST LIKELY
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN LOCALLY WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SLIDES A BIT FARTHER EAST AND A SHORT WAVE PUSHES INTO WESTERN IA.
CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE IN CENTRAL IA AND PUSH EAST INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES
HAVE BEEN LOWERED ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THIS MORNING AND SHIFTED A
BIT WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AS WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND A STRONGER SHORT WAVE OVERTAKE THE
REGION.
DMD
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING STILL ON TRACK FOR BEST PCPN CHCS IN
NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON WHETHER ANY PHASING
OCCURS BETWEEN SOUTHERN CANADA SHORTWAVE AND ENERGY RIPPLING IN
UNDERCUTTING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW... WITH MOST OF RECENT MODELS NOW
SHOWING NO PHASING. PHASING WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON PCPN
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE... AS MORE PHASED SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT MCS
WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINS OF 1-3+ INCHES. BUT... ATTIM THE
FCST IS TRENDING LOWER ON QPF AMOUNTS AND HARBORS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON PCPN COVERAGE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING GIVEN LACK OF PHASING
SUGGESTED BY MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE CONCERN WITH NO PHASING IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF AREA TO BE SPLIT BY BETTER COVERAGE WITH
ONE DISTURBANCE AND MORE CONCENTRATED BATCH OF CONVECTION LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO UPPER MIDWEST AND AWAY FROM CWA... WHILE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHIFTS E/SE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS DIVING INTO BEST
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AXIS. WITH THAT BEING SAID... GIVEN HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.8 INCHES AND DECENT UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WOULD ANTICIPATE STILL GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ON MONDAY WITH RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
TUE-TUE NIGHT... SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS APPEAR ON TAP
WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF FRONT.
WED-SAT... PATTERN SET TO RETURN UNSETTLED/ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES POSSIBLY IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BEFORE TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH. SHOULD SEE A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN BOTH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
BY LATE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER WESTERN IOWA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN IOWA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX FROM MID
DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT AREA TAF SITES FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH MVFR
AND POSSIBLY LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MONDAY.
DMD
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
AREA TRIBUTARY RIVERS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80...AS WELL AS THE
MAINSTEM MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO NEXT WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL EXISTS NEXT 36-48 HRS...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN AND
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SOME GOOD NEWS THIS AM IN
THAT WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL 1-3+ INCHES NOW MORE LOCALIZED POTENTIAL AS MODELS HAVE
GENERALLY BACKED OFF TO A WEAKER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA.
WOULD LIKE TO STRESS THAT WHILE THIS IS THE CASE THIS AM... THIS
IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AND COULD CHANGE AS MODELS CONTINUALLY
DIVERGING... THUS CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM THAT HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS MORE
LOCALIZED AND NOT AS WIDESPREAD. RIVER SITES THAT ARE CURRENTLY
UNDER A WARNING ARE FORECAST TO SEE MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT
BURLINGTON...WHERE MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...SHOULD
A HEAVY SOAKING RAIN OF 1 TO 3+ INCHES OCCUR OVER ANY RIVER BASINS
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN RENEWED RISES AND HIGHER CREST LEVELS
WOULD BE LIKELY. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ON AREA RIVERS OR WHO
WOULD BE IMPACTED BY HIGH WATER LEVELS SHOULD PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DMD
SHORT TERM...DMD
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...DMD
HYDROLOGY...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
338 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NE WITH
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA. DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE 60S AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE FRONTAL
ZONE SUPPORTING FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG HWY 20 CORRIDOR IN
PARTICULAR. ALOFT...NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AT 500MB
WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FESTERING
WEAK CONVECTION VICINITY LSX AND MORE VIGOROUS STORMS OVER NW IA
CURRENTLY HEADED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL PRECIP TODAY.
RECENT MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN LARGELY
OVERDONE...THUS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS IS
LOWER THAN NORMAL. ECMWF FOR EXAMPLE GROSSLY OVERFORECAST FORCING
AND PRECIP YESTERDAY. THUS...FOR SHORT TERM WILL RELY ON BLEND OF
THIS MORNINGS MORE CONSERVATIVE HRRR...NAM...AND RUC.
STORMS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST IA ARE HINTED AT BY HRRR AND RUC.
BOTH AGREE WITH WEAKENING TREND AS THE CONVECTION COMES UP AGAINST
THE UPPER RIDGE. GIVEN THIS EXPECTATION...THE MOST LIKELY
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN LOCALLY WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SLIDES A BIT FARTHER EAST AND A SHORT WAVE PUSHES INTO WESTERN IA.
CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE IN CENTRAL IA AND PUSH EAST INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES
HAVE BEEN LOWERED ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THIS MORNING AND SHIFTED A
BIT WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AS WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND A STRONGER SHORT WAVE OVERTAKE THE
REGION.
DMD
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING STILL ON TRACK FOR BEST PCPN CHCS IN
NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON WHETHER ANY PHASING
OCCURS BETWEEN SOUTHERN CANADA SHORTWAVE AND ENERGY RIPPLING IN
UNDERCUTTING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW... WITH MOST OF RECENT MODELS NOW
SHOWING NO PHASING. PHASING WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON PCPN
AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE... AS MORE PHASED SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT MCS
WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINS OF 1-3+ INCHES. BUT... ATTIM THE
FCST IS TRENDING LOWER ON QPF AMOUNTS AND HARBORS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON PCPN COVERAGE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING GIVEN LACK OF PHASING
SUGGESTED BY MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE CONCERN WITH NO PHASING IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF AREA TO BE SPLIT BY BETTER COVERAGE WITH
ONE DISTURBANCE AND MORE CONCENTRATED BATCH OF CONVECTION LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO UPPER MIDWEST AND AWAY FROM CWA... WHILE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHIFTS E/SE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS DIVING INTO BEST
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AXIS. WITH THAT BEING SAID... GIVEN HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.8 INCHES AND DECENT UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WOULD ANTICIPATE STILL GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
ON MONDAY WITH RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF
WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
TUE-TUE NGT... SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS APPEAR ON TAP
WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF FRONT.
WED-SAT... PATTERN SET TO RETURN UNSETTLED/ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES POSSIBLY IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BEFORE TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH. SHOULD SEE A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN BOTH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY
BY LATE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014
LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN SOME MVFR FOG
OVERNIGHT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT TRENDS FAVOR THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE OPTED FOR VCTS GROUPS
AT KBRL/KCID/KMLI AT 00Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
AREA TRIBUTARY RIVERS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80...AS WELL AS THE
MAINSTEM MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO NEXT WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL EXISTS NEXT 36-48 HRS...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN AND
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SOME GOOD NEWS THIS AM IN
THAT WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL 1-3+ INCHES NOW MORE LOCALIZED POTENTIAL AS MODELS HAVE
GENERALLY BACKED OFF TO A WEAKER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA.
WOULD LIKE TO STRESS THAT WHILE THIS IS THE CASE THIS AM... THIS
IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AND COULD CHANGE AS MODELS CONTINUALLY
DIVERGING... THUS CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM THAT HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS MORE
LOCALIZED AND NOT AS WIDESPREAD. RIVER SITES THAT ARE CURRENTLY
UNDER A WARNING ARE FORECAST TO SEE MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT
BURLINGTON...WHERE MAJOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...SHOULD
A HEAVY SOAKING RAIN OF 1 TO 3+ INCHES OCCUR OVER ANY RIVER BASINS
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN RENEWED RISES AND HIGHER CREST LEVELS
WOULD BE LIKELY. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ON AREA RIVERS OR WHO
WOULD BE IMPACTED BY HIGH WATER LEVELS SHOULD PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DMD
SHORT TERM...DMD
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
HYDROLOGY...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1209 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING THIS EVENING. LARGE SCALE
FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING CO/WY SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SCATTERED
CONVECTION GOING IN SOME FORM UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT. SD MCS IS MOST
PRESSING CONCERN BUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SEEMS LOW. ALTHOUGH
A FEW CELLS HAVE ACCELERATED FASTER FOR THE MOMENT...COMPLEX IS
CURRENTLY FOLLOWING CORFIDI VECTORS AS A WHOLE AND DRIFTING SE AT
15-20KTS. EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WITH
DECREASE/INCREASE IN MLCAPE/CINH RESPECTIVELY INTO THE NIGHT AND
JUST WEAK TO MODERATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR. HEAVY RAIN IS MORE OF A
CONCERN THAN SEVERE WITH ELEVATED K INDEX/PW AXIS DRIFTING EWD
INTO WRN IA COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AS IT MOVES
EWD WITH OVERALL SYSTEM AND VEERS. 01Z RAP CORFIDI VECTORS/MEAN
WIND ARE BOTH 15KTS OR LESS BY 09Z SO WHAT IS LEFT OF THE COMPLEX
WILL LIKELY BE SLOW MOVING. AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES BUT PWS AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE NOT AS EXTREME AS
RECENT EVENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014
CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVERNIGHT ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
OVERNIGHT. MCV SHIFTING EAST ACROSS SRN WISCONSIN AND NRN ILLINOIS
HAS WRAPPED DRY MID LEVEL AIR IN TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA. THIS
HAS HELPED STRENGTHEN THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE AREA.
SFC FLOW OVER CENTRAL IOWA REMAINS NEARLY NON EXISTENT WITH THE
OVERNIGHT OUTFLOW PUSHING THE WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH INTO KANSAS
AND MISSOURI. A FEW STORMS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO INITIATE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY BUT HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME BECOMING ORGANIZED WITH A
LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ANY GOOD FORCING TO AID IN SUSTAINING
UPDRAFTS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE STATE
BUT MAY CLIP THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
FORCING REMAINS WEAK ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 35 KTS WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE WEST HOWEVER ITS ORIENTATION WILL FAVOR
THE FORCING AND CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.
A SHORT WAVE MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD
SPREAD QG FORCING EAST INTO WESTERN IOWA LATE AND WILL HAVE PUSH
ANY DEVELOPING MCS CLOSE TO THE STATE LATE. POSSIBLE A FEW STORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AS A COUPLE WAVES OF
THETA-E ADVECTION LIFT NORTH AND GENERATE AN INSTABILITY AXIS
THROUGH THAT REGION. A DISCONTINUITY BETWEEN FORCING AND MOISTURE
AVAILABLE SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE WESTERN
MCS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD
THOUGH CAN NOT DISCOUNT A LOCALIZED EVENT. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO LOW THROUGH 12Z.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014
MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. EXPECTING SOME LEFTOVER CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING TO DECAY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH. A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER WAVE IS NOW EXPECTED CROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY.
PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTED A STRONGER WAVE TRACKING OVER
SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI BUT LAST 2 RUNS OF THE MODELS SHOW
SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE CROSSING THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LESSER THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...BUT INCREASE THE RISK OF RAINFALL AND SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BOTH THE 12Z GFS/NAM ARE NOW FAVORING THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY
TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
FRONTAL FORCING MAXIMIZED FROM NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND A SECONDARY WAVE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS LEAVES
THE BULK OF CENTRAL IOWA IN AN AREA OF LESS FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE
AND FORCING. TODAYS 12Z GEM MODEL HAS ALSO SPLIT THE ENERGY IN A
SIMILAR PATTERN...WITH SYNOPTIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVES OVER
NORTHERN IOWA AND IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WOULD FAVOR TWO
AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL...ONE OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND THE OTHER
OVER MISSOURI SOUTH TO NEAR THE OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS BORDER. WITH THE
SUGGESTION OF SPLIT FLOW...THE PATTERN WOULD BE MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH A QUICKER EXIT OF THE FRONT BY LATE MONDAY MORNING RATHER
THAN MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WE CONTINUE HAVE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ONCE AGAIN RUNNING
FROM 11500 TO 13000 FT. THERE MAY STILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
NEARER THE SFC LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHERN IOWA
WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE VERY WARM...BUT WITH CLOUD COVER
AROUND PROBABLY HELD INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH A FEW UPPER
80S IN THE SOUTH. COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN TOWARD MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST. TUESDAY MORNING EITHER LOOKS TO
BE A GREAT CANDIDATE FOR FOG OR A LOT OF DEW. WILL NEED TO TAKE A
LOOK AT THIS IN THE NEXT PACKAGE OR TWO AS WINDS BECOME VERY LIGHT
BY THAT TIME AND TEMPERATURES RADIATE BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S.
THERE REMAINS A WEAK SIGNAL FOR SOME SHOWERS TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
OVER THE NORTH AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE CENTRAL. FOR NOW...GREATER
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CHANCES FOR RETURN MOISTURE THAT SOON...AND THIS
MAY CHANGE. BY MID TO LATE IN THE PERIOD A WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL RETURN ALOFT. THIS WILL PROMOTE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD MID 80S ARE MORE LIKELY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. AS TEMPS WARM ALOFT AT H700 TO ABOVE 10C...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES MAY BE CAPPED BUT UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO SUN MORNING WITH ATTENTION
TURNING UPSTREAM INTO SD FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH BETTER
LIKELIHOOD NW VS SE. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS BUT LIKELIHOOD AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITES IS QUITE LOW.
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP SOMETIME SUN MIDDAY INTO THE
EVENING...BUT TIMING AND LOCATIONS HAVE LITTLE PREDICTABILITY AT
THIS POINT SO HAVE NOTHING MORE THAN PROLONGED VFR VCSH WORDING
FOR NOW.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
THE MAIN CONCERN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WILL BE MCS
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS...MOVING EAST INTO NORTHWEST
IOWA BY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECAY EARLY IN THE DAY BUT
AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE. WITH PWATS CONTINUING HIGH AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS FAVORING EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES...SOME AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY. MOST 1 AND 3 HOUR GRIDDED FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE OVER THE REGION IS ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES...SO IF ANY
STORMS WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES DEVELOP...THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. ONE LIMITING FACTOR
SUNDAY WILL BE A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST. CONFIDENCE OF OVERALL COVERAGE AND LOCATION
IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE HEADLINES OUT FOR NOW. RIVER LEVELS WILL
RESPOND AGAIN TO ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...SMALL
HYDROLOGY...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
755 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2014
...updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
Another MCS night likely across far western Kansas. There is isolated
weak thunderstorms developing across south central Kansas this afternoon
as well. Have the highest pops along and west of Garden City to Liberal,
although the most recent HRRR propagates the MCS farther east. Something
to watch and update ESTF grids based on reality rather than model output
solutions. There could be some severe weather across far western Kansas
as meso analyzed SBCAPES are near 2000 J/kg and 30 kt effective bulk
shear. Most probable threat is hail and winds along with heavy rainfall
as pwats remain just below the 75th percentile for a normal distribution.
Overnight minimums will be in the 60sF.
Another MCS likely tomorrow. Attempted to add some diurnal pop variability
with a minimum towards 18Z and maximum at the end of my period. Some
uncertainty in storm placement as convective allowing models are different
than the global models. Broad bushed pops at this point as pwats remain
high and the overall synoptic pattern is that which is conducive for
MCS`s. There could be some marginal severe weather again as instability is
moderate and bulk shear is more marginal. Highs in the 80sF.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
For Tuesday night, a weak upper level shortwave trough will be
moving across western Kansas with numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected as an MCS. At this time with weak wind shear and
instability the chances for severe do not look that promising. Have
upped precip chances. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s.
On Wednesday, more widely scattered thunderstorms are possible with
moderate instability mainly by late afternoon. The upper level winds
again look weak with severe thunderstorms not a good bet. Highs will
be in the mid to upper 80s.
For the period Thursday into next Monday, the best chance for more
scattered thunderstorms looks to be on Thursday with another weak
upper level wave. A stronger wave moves from the Pacific Northwest
and into the Northern Plains by the Weekend with the best chance for
thunderstorms mainly far north across I-70. Lows will be mild in the
upper 60s to lower 70s, with highs warming slowly from the upper 80s
into the low to mid 90s by the Weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 721 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 85 65 87 / 60 40 50 30
GCK 62 85 64 87 / 60 40 50 20
EHA 62 84 64 89 / 60 40 50 30
LBL 63 87 64 88 / 60 40 50 30
HYS 63 82 64 85 / 30 20 40 30
P28 65 86 68 86 / 10 30 40 40
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1259 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO RAMP UP QUICKLY AFTER 3 PM MDT
(4 PM CDT) AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE IGNITES A FEW STORMS IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST A LINE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HRRR HAS
BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL WITH THE LINE AND
WE COULD EXPERIENCE ANOTHER EPISODE OF 70+ MPH GUSTS. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE MID 50S WEST...MID 60S EAST.
ON MONDAY MAY SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO. OTHERWISE EXPECT
SOME CLOUDINESS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
A FEW STORMS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO MONDAY EVENING MAY SNEAK INTO
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA...BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL BE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS LLJ STRENGTHENS AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. STORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...WITH
PARCELS ORIGINATING AROUND 800MB HAVING UP TO 1000 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE AND LITTLE TO NO CIN. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH THESE STORMS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION GETS GOING IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE. MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 30-40KTS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS AS THEY
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CORRIDOR OF VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
FORECAST BY THE AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HOWEVER IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER AT AROUND
30KTS...BUT SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE STORMS AS NEXT SHORTWAVE
COMES OUT OF NORTHERN COLORADO IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
A SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS IN THE LAST HALF OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE ROCKIES TROUGH OR EVEN THE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO CONTINUE
THE MENTION OF DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10KTS. IN THE 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
FOR A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE
TERMINAL WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 45 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 03Z
NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 15-20KTS WILL DECREASE TO 10KTS OR LESS
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 01Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10KTS INCREASING AND GUSTING NEAR 20KTS AFTER 22Z. FROM
02Z-05Z CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH WIND GUSTS TO
35KTS...POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR
CONDITIONS. THE STRONGER STORMS AND WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. AFTER 05Z NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
UNDER 10KTS EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1230 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO RAMP UP QUICKLY AFTER 3 PM MDT
(4 PM CDT) AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE IGNITES A FEW STORMS IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST A LINE OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HRRR HAS
BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL WITH THE LINE AND
WE COULD EXPERIENCE ANOTHER EPISODE OF 70+ MPH GUSTS. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE MID 50S WEST...MID 60S EAST.
ON MONDAY MAY SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO. OTHERWISE EXPECT
SOME CLOUDINESS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A WEAK...BROAD AND FLATTENING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW. MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN DISAGREEMENT FROM THE VERY START AS THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
GFS BRINGS THE UPPER RIDGE FURTHER EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES TRANSITIONING THE FLOW ALOFT TO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW. MODELS DISAGREE ONCE AGAIN WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF DIGGING THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH INTO
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO CLOSING OFF INTO A LOW WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
THE UPPER TROUGH FURTHER NORTH AND SENDS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...WENT AHEAD AND ACCEPTED THE ALLBLEND FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHICH ARE IN EVERYDAY OF THE EXTENDED.
SURFACE FEATURES ARE A LITTLE HARDER TO DETERMINE IN THE EXTENDED
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES CANNOT EVEN BE RESOLVED BY THE
MODELS. THE GFS STILL SHOWS A DRYLINE SETTING UP OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WAVERING OVER THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
COULD SERVE AS A BOUNDARY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED AND...IF INTERACTING WITH THE FORCING OF THE DRYLINE...WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...SINCE
MODELS ARE IN SUCH POOR AGREEMENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON GETTING
SPECIFIC IN TERMS OF TIMING AND POSITION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EXTENDED.
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S WEST TO UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10KTS. IN THE 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
FOR A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE
TERMINAL WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 45 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 03Z
NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 15-20KTS WILL DECREASE TO 10KTS OR LESS
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 01Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10KTS INCREASING AND GUSTING NEAR 20KTS AFTER 22Z. FROM
02Z-05Z CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH WIND GUSTS TO
35KTS...POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR
CONDITIONS. THE STRONGER STORMS AND WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. AFTER 05Z NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
UNDER 10KTS EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...ALW
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1120 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
HAVE REDONE THE FIRST AND SECOND PERIODS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND FINE TUNE TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER REVISIONS TO THE
FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE AS NEWER MODEL DATA COMES IN.
LATEST NAM/RUC/HRRR SUGGESTING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN AFTER 3 PM MDT (4 PM CDT) IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA
AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. NAM IS IT A BIT QUICKER BRINGING
PRECIP INTO THE AREA COMPARED TO THE RUC/HRRR BUT BY 03Z ALL
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HRRR
SUGGESTING A LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE HRRR AND NAM FOR POP PLACEMENT.
HIGHS IN THE 80S EXCEPT LOW 90S FROM NORTON TO HILL CITY TO LEOTI
AND POINTS EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL TODAY AND TONIGHT TURNING NORTHWESTERLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON A
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS GOOD LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. CAPE RANGES FROM
1800 TO 2400 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES ARE FROM 35 TO 40 KTS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS JUST OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE FA. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWED HIGHER QPF GENERALLY ALIGNED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. THE GFS HAS UNUSUALLY LARGE QPF BUT IT IS WELL
SOUTH OF THE FA. STORM MOVEMENT RANGES FROM 10 TO 15 KTS BUT IS NOT
FAVORABLE TO TRAINING STORMS DUE TO A PERPENDICULAR ORIENTATION TO
THE TROUGH AXIS. PLAN TO CONTINUE HIGH POPS AND WORDING FOR POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANCES DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY MONDAY MORNING, BUT
BY AFTERNOON EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO DUE TO UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE IN THAT AREA. STORMS WILL DRIFT
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE POPS MONDAY EVENING. A SIMILAR
SCENARIO EXISTS FOR TUESDAY WITH STORMS INITIATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND MOVING EAST INTO THE FA. PLAN TO CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO 90 TODAY. COOLER
READINGS WILL BE REACHED IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON MONDAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWER
TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A WEAK...BROAD AND FLATTENING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW. MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN DISAGREEMENT FROM THE VERY START AS THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
GFS BRINGS THE UPPER RIDGE FURTHER EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES TRANSITIONING THE FLOW ALOFT TO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW. MODELS DISAGREE ONCE AGAIN WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF DIGGING THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH INTO
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO CLOSING OFF INTO A LOW WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
THE UPPER TROUGH FURTHER NORTH AND SENDS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...WENT AHEAD AND ACCEPTED THE ALLBLEND FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHICH ARE IN EVERYDAY OF THE EXTENDED.
SURFACE FEATURES ARE A LITTLE HARDER TO DETERMINE IN THE EXTENDED
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES CANNOT EVEN BE RESOLVED BY THE
MODELS. THE GFS STILL SHOWS A DRYLINE SETTING UP OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WAVERING OVER THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
COULD SERVE AS A BOUNDARY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED AND...IF INTERACTING WITH THE FORCING OF THE DRYLINE...WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...SINCE
MODELS ARE IN SUCH POOR AGREEMENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON GETTING
SPECIFIC IN TERMS OF TIMING AND POSITION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EXTENDED.
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S WEST TO UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10KTS. IN THE 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
FOR A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE
TERMINAL WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 45 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 03Z
NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 15-20KTS WILL DECREASE TO 10KTS OR LESS
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 01Z WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10KTS INCREASING AND GUSTING NEAR 20KTS AFTER 22Z. FROM
02Z-05Z CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO POSSIBLY IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH WIND GUSTS TO
35KTS...POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL CREATING MVFR
CONDITIONS. THE STRONGER STORMS AND WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. AFTER 05Z NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
UNDER 10KTS EXPECTED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...ALW
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1025 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
HAVE REDONE THE FIRST AND SECOND PERIODS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND FINE TUNE TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER REVISIONS TO THE
FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE AS NEWER MODEL DATA COMES IN.
LATEST NAM/RUC/HRRR SUGGESTING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN AFTER 3 PM MDT (4 PM CDT) IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA
AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. NAM IS IT A BIT QUICKER BRINGING
PRECIP INTO THE AREA COMPARED TO THE RUC/HRRR BUT BY 03Z ALL
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HRRR
SUGGESTING A LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE HRRR AND NAM FOR POP PLACEMENT.
HIGHS IN THE 80S EXCEPT LOW 90S FROM NORTON TO HILL CITY TO LEOTI
AND POINTS EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL TODAY AND TONIGHT TURNING NORTHWESTERLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS TODAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON A
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS GOOD LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. CAPE RANGES FROM
1800 TO 2400 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES ARE FROM 35 TO 40 KTS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS JUST OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE FA. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWED HIGHER QPF GENERALLY ALIGNED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. THE GFS HAS UNUSUALLY LARGE QPF BUT IT IS WELL
SOUTH OF THE FA. STORM MOVEMENT RANGES FROM 10 TO 15 KTS BUT IS NOT
FAVORABLE TO TRAINING STORMS DUE TO A PERPENDICULAR ORIENTATION TO
THE TROUGH AXIS. PLAN TO CONTINUE HIGH POPS AND WORDING FOR POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANCES DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY MONDAY MORNING, BUT
BY AFTERNOON EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN
COLORADO DUE TO UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE IN THAT AREA. STORMS WILL DRIFT
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE POPS MONDAY EVENING. A SIMILAR
SCENARIO EXISTS FOR TUESDAY WITH STORMS INITIATING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE WEST AND MOVING EAST INTO THE FA. PLAN TO CONTINUE
CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO 90 TODAY. COOLER
READINGS WILL BE REACHED IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON MONDAY.
MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWER
TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A WEAK...BROAD AND FLATTENING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES IN THE SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW. MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN DISAGREEMENT FROM THE VERY START AS THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
GFS BRINGS THE UPPER RIDGE FURTHER EAST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES TRANSITIONING THE FLOW ALOFT TO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW. MODELS DISAGREE ONCE AGAIN WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF DIGGING THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH INTO
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO CLOSING OFF INTO A LOW WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
THE UPPER TROUGH FURTHER NORTH AND SENDS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...WENT AHEAD AND ACCEPTED THE ALLBLEND FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHICH ARE IN EVERYDAY OF THE EXTENDED.
SURFACE FEATURES ARE A LITTLE HARDER TO DETERMINE IN THE EXTENDED
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES CANNOT EVEN BE RESOLVED BY THE
MODELS. THE GFS STILL SHOWS A DRYLINE SETTING UP OVER THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WAVERING OVER THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
COULD SERVE AS A BOUNDARY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED AND...IF INTERACTING WITH THE FORCING OF THE DRYLINE...WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...SINCE
MODELS ARE IN SUCH POOR AGREEMENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON GETTING
SPECIFIC IN TERMS OF TIMING AND POSITION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EXTENDED.
TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S WEST TO UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A DISTURBANCE WILL INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
TROUGH AXIS IN NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS PRODUCING BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END LATE THIS EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW CIGS AND MVFR RETURNING TO BOTH
TERMINALS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...ALW
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1153 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014
19Z water vapor imagery continues to shows a quasi-zonal flow across
the central Rockies and into the plains. There may be one or two
Mesoscale Convective Vortices (MCV) moving along the KS/NEB state
line with the more obvious one crossing the MO river and headed into
central MO. There also appears to be a subtle shortwave moving
through ID and northern UT. At the surface, a trough of low pressure
extended from the Dakotas south through eastern CO. Surface OBS show
the better low level moisture has shifted a little to the east with
much of the 70 degree dewpoints.
Late this afternoon and this evening is anticipated to be mostly dry
with general subsidence from the MCV over eastern KS and the deeper
moisture to the east of the area. This combined with a lack of
organized low level convergence should favor any isolated storms
remaining east of the forecast area. Will have to watch and see if
any of the convection off the higher terrain holds together long
enough to reach north central KS. There are some indications from
the RAP and HRRR that there could be some precip move into Republic
and Cloud counties around midnight. However those solutions seem to
be a little to aggressive in developing convection earlier in the
day, so I don`t know how much weight to give these solutions. Will
have some small POPs after midnight for far northern counties in
case some shower and thunderstorm activity is able to hang together.
Lows tonight should once again be mild with readings around 70 due to
southerly winds and warm air remaining over the area.
For Sunday, the subtle shortwave out west is progged to be moving
out into the plains, mainly to the north of the forecast area.
However the synoptic scale surface trough is expected to be a little
further east into KS. Convergence along this boundary coupled with
some weak forcing from the upper wave could cause a broken line of
storms to form by the afternoon hours. Instability is expected to be
high once again with good low level moisture still in place. However
due to weak mid level flow, deep layer shear is progged to only be
from 15 to 25 kts. This would favor multi cell clusters with a hail
and strong wind hazard. North central KS looks like the most likely
place for this storms to form during the afternoon. Temps for Sunday
are expected to be similar to today`s or maybe a degree or two
cooler. Models show a slight cooling trend at 850 and there could be
higher clouds increasing by the afternoon from the potential
convection to the west. Because of this have highs generally in the
lower 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014
Overall trend is for the upper wave to be less intense as it passes
through Sunday night into early Monday. Still looks like a good
opportunity for for most locations to receive at least one round of
precip with the slow moving system weak front moving through a moist
early-summer airmass and limited inhibition. Severe weather concerns
should diminish with time in the evening hours with a least some
chance for pockets of heavier precipitation, though setup does not
point to any particularly area at this point. Monday should slowly dry
with the departing wave with Monday night and much of Tuesday still
looking to be the more likely dry periods of this forecast.
Models do show some similarities with a weak wave passing mainly
south of the area late Tuesday into Wednesday, but moisture does
return north with this wave with modest flow keeping mid levels from
warming too fast for at least small thunderstorm chances. Upper flow
amplifies over the western and eventually central CONUS into the end
of the forecast. Expect capping to increase enough for a mainly dry
end to the work week with chances picking up again by Saturday as
forcing increases. Temps should slowly warm through the latter
portions of the week, with 90s possible by Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014
VFR conditions expected through mid day today. A boundary will
approach from central KS during the evening hours causing
widespread thunderstorms late in the period. There is also the
possibility of isolated to scattered storms out ahead of the
boundary near the taf sites in the late afternoon due to daytime
heating. The lift for this convection could be enhanced by a shortwave
although the there is a lack of surface convergence. Timing of the
shortwave and any outflow that could potential contribute to convergence
at the surface is uncertain and will need time to evaluate.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Sanders
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
713 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE CWA. IT WAS SENT OUT A BIT EARLIER AS I35...W39...LOZ AND SME ALL
WERE REPORTING DENSE FOG. THE DENSE FOG IN THAT AREA SHOULD LIFT AND
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY 9 AM EDT. HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS
AS WELL AS SKY COVER HAS BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS RATHER ZONAL THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO REGION
AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND EXTENDED INTO THE MS VALLEY. A TROUGH IS GRADUALLY
DEPARTING THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS PUTS THE REGION IN WEST
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MAINLY CIRRUS DROPPING ACROSS
THE AREA. PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND
BASED ON RECENT ASOS AND AWOS OBS MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD IN
PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.
SO FAR AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DENSE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE CWA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT AFTER SUNRISE AND DISSIPATE
BY AROUND 9 TO 10 AM.
OTHERWISE...A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY AND EASTERN KY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE BOUNDARY THAT SAGGED SOUTH INTO THE AREA WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA...OR JUST TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THAT REGION. DRIER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE CWA MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT CONVECTION
A BIT...AS POSSIBLY THE MID LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR WEST. RECENT RUNS OF
THE RAP HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON AND APPROACHING THE AREA TOWARD SUNSET...BUT TENDS OF
WEAKEN IT LATE. THE 0Z NAM BRINGS SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
AROUND SUNSET AND THE 0Z GFS IS RATHER SIMILAR. WITH THE BOUNDARY IN
THE VICINITY AND THE FACT THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY DO NOT
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT CAPPING...BUT FORCING WILL BE
RATHER WEAK OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FROM MID AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THEREAFTER...A DIURNAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS
RISE FURTHER. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGING SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT.
850 MB TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TOWARD AT LEAST 18C. WIDESPREAD LOWER 90S
ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LIFTING WARM
FRONT AND HEIGHT FALLS LATE SHOULD COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CONTINUES A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH WEAKENED RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTH. THIS IS MAINTAINED...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED. ON TUESDAY...A SEEMINGLY WEAKER SHORTWAVE FROM RUN TO RUN
TRIES TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND AT THE
SURFACE...BRINGS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. TOWARDS THE
LAST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO
A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH DEVELOPING RIDGING ALONG THE MS RIVER
VALLEY AND TROUGHS DIGGING ALONG THE THE WEST COAST AND ALSO ALONG
THE EAST COAST. ONE SLIGHT CHANGE IN RECENT RUNS SHOWS A WAVE UNDER
CUTTING THE RIDGE AND DRIFTING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN VALLEY BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.
OTHERWISE...THROUGH THE EXTENDED...A WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS REMAINS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE AFTERNOON
MAXIMUM CHANCE FOR PRECIP DWINDLING TO THE MINIMUM CHANCE OF PRECIP
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ONE CHANCE OF DISRUPTING THIS TREND
WOULD BE THE ARRIVAL OF AN MCS THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH IS A
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...DID NOT STRAY FROM THE MODEL ALL BLEND.
THIS PATTERN MAY BE COMING TO AN END BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED WITH
THE MODELS HINTING AT STRONG RIDGING BUILDING AND SHIFTING EAST OF
THE MS. OTHERWISE...HUMID...WARM...AND UNSTABLE DAYS ARE TO
CONTINUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
THE MOST IMPACTED AIRPORTS FROM INITIAL DENSE FOG WILL BE KLOZ AND
KSME. SOME MAY ALSO LIFT INTO SJS EARLY. THERE IS NO FOG NOW AT JKL
AND WE DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO CHANGE. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA AFTER
16Z...BUT PROBABILITIES AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ATTM. MORE VALLEY FOG SHOULD FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT THIS
SHOULD TEND TO NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES UNLESS ONE TAKES A DIRECT HIT
FROM SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ068-069-
079-080-083>088-115>118.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
402 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS RATHER ZONAL THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO REGION
AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND EXTENDED INTO THE MS VALLEY. A TROUGH IS GRADUALLY
DEPARTING THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS PUTS THE REGION IN WEST
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MAINLY CIRRUS DROPPING ACROSS
THE AREA. PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND
BASED ON RECENT ASOS AND AWOS OBS MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD IN
PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.
SO FAR AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DENSE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE CWA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT AFTER SUNRISE AND DISSIPATE
BY AROUND 9 TO 10 AM.
OTHERWISE...A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY AND EASTERN KY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE BOUNDARY THAT SAGGED SOUTH INTO THE AREA WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA...OR JUST TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THAT REGION. DRIER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE CWA MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT CONVECTION
A BIT...AS POSSIBLY THE MID LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR WEST. RECENT RUNS OF
THE RAP HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON AND APPROACHING THE AREA TOWARD SUNSET...BUT TENDS OF
WEAKEN IT LATE. THE 0Z NAM BRINGS SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
AROUND SUNSET AND THE 0Z GFS IS RATHER SIMILAR. WITH THE BOUNDARY IN
THE VICINITY AND THE FACT THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY DO NOT
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT CAPPING...BUT FORCING WILL BE
RATHER WEAK OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FROM MID AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THEREAFTER...A DIURNAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS
RISE FURTHER. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGING SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT.
850 MB TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TOWARD AT LEAST 18C. WIDESPREAD LOWER 90S
ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LIFTING WARM
FRONT AND HEIGHT FALLS LATE SHOULD COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CONTINUES A MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH WEAKENED RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTH. THIS IS MAINTAINED...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED. ON TUESDAY...A SEEMINGLY WEAKER SHORTWAVE FROM RUN TO RUN
TRIES TO PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND AT THE
SURFACE...BRINGS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. TOWARDS THE
LAST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO
A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH DEVELOPING RIDGING ALONG THE MS RIVER
VALLEY AND TROUGHS DIGGING ALONG THE THE WEST COAST AND ALSO ALONG
THE EAST COAST. ONE SLIGHT CHANGE IN RECENT RUNS SHOWS A WAVE UNDER
CUTTING THE RIDGE AND DRIFTING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE
TN VALLEY BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.
OTHERWISE...THROUGH THE EXTENDED...A WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS REMAINS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE AFTERNOON
MAXIMUM CHANCE FOR PRECIP DWINDLING TO THE MINIMUM CHANCE OF PRECIP
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ONE CHANCE OF DISRUPTING THIS TREND
WOULD BE THE ARRIVAL OF AN MCS THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH IS A
POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...DID NOT STRAY FROM THE MODEL ALL BLEND.
THIS PATTERN MAY BE COMING TO AN END BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED WITH
THE MODELS HINTING AT STRONG RIDGING BUILDING AND SHIFTING EAST OF
THE MS. OTHERWISE...HUMID...WARM...AND UNSTABLE DAYS ARE TO
CONTINUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH
12Z...ESPECIALLY ANY MID OR LOW CLOUDS...THOUGH BANDS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD PASS FROM TIME TO TIME INTO SUNDAY. PATCHY VALLEY FOG
SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DEVELOP THROUGH 9Z AT LOZ...SME AND PROBABLY
LIFT INTO SJS. THE MOST IMPACTED AIRPORTS BEING KLOZ AND KSME WHERE
RAIN HAD FALLEN EARLIER IN THE DAY. WITH A LARGER CURRENT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION AT JKL..LEFT OUT ANY FOG THERE. THE FOG WILL LIFT AND
DISSIPATE BY ABOUT 13Z. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AND THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA AFTER 16Z...BUT
PROBABILITIES AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
401 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS REMAINS RATHER ZONAL THIS MORNING. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO REGION
AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND EXTENDED INTO THE MS VALLEY. A TROUGH IS GRADUALLY
DEPARTING THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS PUTS THE REGION IN WEST
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MAINLY CIRRUS DROPPING ACROSS
THE AREA. PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND
BASED ON RECENT ASOS AND AWOS OBS MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD IN
PARTS OF THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.
SO FAR AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DENSE FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE CWA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT AFTER SUNRISE AND DISSIPATE
BY AROUND 9 TO 10 AM.
OTHERWISE...A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY AND EASTERN KY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE BOUNDARY THAT SAGGED SOUTH INTO THE AREA WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA...OR JUST TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THAT REGION. DRIER DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PART OF THE CWA MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT CONVECTION
A BIT...AS POSSIBLY THE MID LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR WEST. RECENT RUNS OF
THE RAP HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON AND APPROACHING THE AREA TOWARD SUNSET...BUT TENDS OF
WEAKEN IT LATE. THE 0Z NAM BRINGS SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
AROUND SUNSET AND THE 0Z GFS IS RATHER SIMILAR. WITH THE BOUNDARY IN
THE VICINITY AND THE FACT THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS GENERALLY DO NOT
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT CAPPING...BUT FORCING WILL BE
RATHER WEAK OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FROM MID AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THEREAFTER...A DIURNAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN AND HEIGHTS
RISE FURTHER. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGING SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT.
850 MB TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TOWARD AT LEAST 18C. WIDESPREAD LOWER 90S
ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LIFTING WARM
FRONT AND HEIGHT FALLS LATE SHOULD COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
THERE SHOULD BE AN OVERALL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH
12Z...ESPECIALLY ANY MID OR LOW CLOUDS...THOUGH BANDS OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD PASS FROM TIME TO TIME INTO SUNDAY. PATCHY VALLEY FOG
SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY DEVELOP THROUGH 9Z AT LOZ...SME AND PROBABLY
LIFT INTO SJS. THE MOST IMPACTED AIRPORTS BEING KLOZ AND KSME WHERE
RAIN HAD FALLEN EARLIER IN THE DAY. WITH A LARGER CURRENT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION AT JKL..LEFT OUT ANY FOG THERE. THE FOG WILL LIFT AND
DISSIPATE BY ABOUT 13Z. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AND THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA AFTER 16Z...BUT
PROBABILITIES AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1252 AM EDT Sun Jun 22 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 917 PM EDT Sat Jun 21 2014
Ran another update this evening mainly to bring grids up to speed
with current observations. As expected, convection is rapidly
weakening off to the northwest as the precipitation encounters a
much drier and more stable airmass. Therefore, will continue to
leave the forecast dry overnight. Also went ahead and added some
patchy fog to the grids across the Lake Cumberland region where the
heaviest rainfall fell this afternoon/evening. Otherwise, the rest
of the forecast looks on track.
Issued at 614 PM EDT Sat Jun 21 2014
Quick update this evening to account for ongoing trends. Despite a
few very isolated light showers, precipitation has ended across
southern KY. Therefore, will remove precip mention from the
forecast for the remainder of the evening hours. Attention will
then turn to the northwest as a line of showers and thunderstorms
continues to develop across IL/MO. The main forecast challenge
tonight will be just how far east that convection makes it. Given
it will be fighting much drier air that has protruded into southern
IN and into southern IL, think this convection will likely struggle
as it pushes east. However, the latest HRRR which has a good handle
on the current convection, does bring a weakening line into southern
IN around 06Z overnight. Given the drier air firmly in place, will
continue with a dry forecast but will continue to monitor trends
over the next few hours.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Jun 21 2014
The upper air pattern shows a progressive relatively flat flow at
500mb confined generally to the northern tier of states. Weak
northwest flow currently over the northern Ohio Valley will become
weaker as ridging is forecast to develop across the Lower
Mississippi Valley by late Sunday, extending northeastwards through
southern Indiana.
Expect only a few flat cumulus this afternoon along and north of
Interstate 64 as the shortwave that brought scattered thunderstorms
earlier this morning to the Lake Cumberland Region moves farther
southeast. Any additional isolated thunderstorms through late
afternoon will stay along and southeast of the Cumberland Parkway.
Expect mostly clear skies tonight with humid conditions and light
winds. Some patchy fog may once again develop across southern
Indiana and the Bluegrass Region, although not to the extent of
earlier this morning. Lows tonight will range from the mid 60s
across the Bluegrass and southern Indiana to near 70 elsewhere.
Despite adequate moisture and quite unstable conditions developing
Sunday afternoon, ridging aloft will inhibit any widespread
convection. Think that scattered thunderstorms may develop farther
north across Illinois and Indiana, with isolated storms at best
along and north of the Ohio River. Expect south central Kentucky to
stay dry. Highs Sunday will range from the upper 80s northeast to
the lower 90s southwest. Light south winds will develop Sunday
afternoon.
.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sat Jun 21 2014
Fairly typical summertime conditions expected for most of the
upcoming week, with a low-amplitude and somewhat progressive pattern
aloft.
Shortwave ridging on Monday will most likely allow for the warmest
temps of the week. However, the pattern is still just flat enough
and heights not getting into legitimate heat wave territory, so
expect temps to reach the lower 90s in most spots. This stays in
line with the more consistent and slightly cooler NAM MOS. Chance
POPs will re-enter the picture Monday afternoon as the ridging
begins to gradually weaken.
Best chance for showers and storms will be Tuesday into Tuesday
night, with the passage of an upper shortwave trof. High PWATs will
support a heavy rain and pulse wind threat.
The rest of the week will not see any real pattern change, but just
warm and humid conditions with isolated/scattered storms each day,
mainly in the afternoons.
Pattern aloft starts to amplify toward the end of the week with a
ridge nosing up into the Upper Midwest. This bears watch for a
possible break in our daily convection and temps possibly punching
back into the 90s at some point next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 AM EDT Sun Jun 22 2014
Skies will be variably cloudy overnight as some upper level debris
from earlier convection moves overhead. Meanwhile, high pressure
will be in control at the surface with mostly calm winds. Will
continue to leave mention of some MVFR fog at BWG/LEX toward dawn,
although the variable cloudiness could limit potential somewhat. GLW
has already dropped to 7SM adding confidence that it should be left
in.
Otherwise, expect light winds later today, with any noticeable
gradient out of the SW. Conditions will become unstable in the
afternoon although thunderstorm coverage is expected to be limited
to isolated due to the upper ridge overhead. Do expect few-sct Cu
around 5 K feet in the afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......BJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1150 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
SHRAS AND A FEW TSRAS WILL LIFT NORTH OF TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE NORTERN
GREAT LAKES AND COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL LIMIT TEMPO
GROUPS TO 08Z SOUTH...10Z NORTH AND BRING SHRAS/TSRAS BACK IN THE
14Z-15Z TIME FRAME AS FORCING FROM APPROACHING COLD FRONT COINCIDES
WITH INCREASING BROADSCALE LIFT AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
AREA ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
CLEARING WILL THEN ENSUE LATE IN THE FORECAST AS THIS MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EAST OF TH REGION.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT BY TUESDAY MORNING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING KDTW TUESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AT 19Z THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED ROUGHLY ALONG THE MICHIGAN
STATE BORDER PER REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS. NORTH OF THE FRONT, SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MORNING`S MCV CONTINUE EXITING EAST. THIS LIGHT
PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO
THE LOW/MID 70S THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT,
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY A
WEAK/UNIDIRECTIONAL AMBIENT WIND FIELD. WITHIN SAID WARM SECTOR,
WIDESPREAD MULTICELL CONVECTION IS ONGOING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE
REPORTS THUS FAR. HOWEVER, SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY SOUTH
OF THE WARM FRONT, MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF I-94, WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CONTRIBUTE TO A WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE
LOWEST 5KFT PER THE LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS, IN THE
PRESENCE OF LOCALLY ENHANCED SHEAR INVOF THE WARM FRONT, WILL
PRESENT A LOW-END CHANCE FOR BRIEF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A MARGINAL DIABATICALLY-INDUCED SEVERE WIND THREAT UNTIL
DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST LATER THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE AREA
BECOMES INCREASINGLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR. ONE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTH BEND TO TERRE
HAUTE ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS.
IN ADDITION, MORE UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN JUST SOUTH OF
CHICAGO IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN MCV EVIDENT IN AFTERNOON VISIBLE
IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT, WITH THE
LAST ROUND LIKELY AFFECTING THE METRO AREA SOMETIME AROUND 02-03Z.
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH LATE EVENING/EARLY NIGHT ACTIVITY WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO POTENTIAL TRAINING AND PWATS OF 1.6" TO 1.8" ALONG
WITH LIGHTNING. SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME AS THE
SUN ANGLE DECREASES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT RESPONDS TO AN ENCROACHING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. THE
AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP ACTIVITY
BUBBLING WITHIN THE MOISTURE AXIS THROUGH THE NOCTURNAL PERIOD. LOWS
IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW 70 DEGREES.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
GENERALLY ILL-DEFINED FORCING IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT /PW 1.5-2
INCHES/ POSES CHALLENGES FOR DETERMINING POPS TUESDAY...BUT TRIED TO
KEY IN ON SOME FEATURES WITH THIS PACKAGE. WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR CENTRAL LAKE HURON AT 12Z TUESDAY AND MOVING
NORTHEAST...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW...BISECTING
LOWER MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR OVER OKLAHOMA WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD...REACHING IN/OH BY
00Z WEDNESDAY. WEAK AREA OF MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION NORTH OF THIS WAVE
MAY PROVIDE SOME LIFT OVER SE MI...ALONG WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
FORCING FROM 70KT JET OVER NORTHERN LOWER. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS
FORCING BY UPGRADING THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA TO ENTRY-LEVEL
LIKELY POPS FROM 15-21Z. ALSO LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES OVER
THE SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. SEVERE
POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK TOO OVERWHELMING...ESPECIALLY IF MORNING
ACTIVITY HAMPERS DESTABILIZATION. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
TOTALLY IMPRESSIVE AT 6-6.5 K/KM. IF PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATER
AND SOME MORE RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KT COULD RESULT IN SOME BETTER ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THAT SCENARIO. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY IN
ANY MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE EAST/WEST
ORIENTED COLD FRONT SHOULD SPELL AN END TO MOST POPS AFTER
00Z...THOUGH IT IS NOT A VERY AGRESSIVE FRONTAL PUSH...SO LOW TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S.
LOWER THETA-E AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE OVER ONTARIO ATTEMPTS TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO LOWER MI.
THIS WILL BE COMPLICATED BY THE PASSAGE OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
DURING THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECIDED LACK OF MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE HOWEVER...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. GFS IS SHOWING MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION AROUND 900MB FOR MOST OF THE DAY...SO
HAVE KEPT A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY IN THE MID-70S TO NEAR 80.
THE HIGH WILL HAVE MORE SUCCESS BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN...SO EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW
DRY CONDITIONS TO STICK AROUND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BEFORE RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MARINE...
ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK FOR THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AS A PAIR OF FRONTS WORK THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST
FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG A LINE FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE
ERIE...SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL VEER WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY
TO WESTERLY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL USHER
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15
KNOTS...WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP THE WAVES IN CHECK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DRK/RK
MARINE.......DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
722 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
SHRAS/TSRAS WILL SPREAD INTO TERMINALS ALONG WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO
AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND /NORTH OF WARM FRONT FROM
PTK ON NORTH. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
CONVECTION. SCATTERED ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE THEN BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSRAS
MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
FOR DTW...SCT/BKN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO
THE AREA BETWEEN 02Z-03Z...BUT TSRAS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
FEW HOURS LATE THIS EVENING.ADDITIONAL SHRAS WILL PERCOLATE DURING
THE NIGHT BEFORE NEXT SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF RAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF THIS SECOND IMPULSE.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN TSTORMS AFFECTING KDTW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 349 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AT 19Z THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WAS DRAPED ROUGHLY ALONG THE MICHIGAN
STATE BORDER PER REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS. NORTH OF THE FRONT, SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MORNING`S MCV CONTINUE EXITING EAST. THIS LIGHT
PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO
THE LOW/MID 70S THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT,
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY A
WEAK/UNIDIRECTIONAL AMBIENT WIND FIELD. WITHIN SAID WARM SECTOR,
WIDESPREAD MULTICELL CONVECTION IS ONGOING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE
REPORTS THUS FAR. HOWEVER, SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY SOUTH
OF THE WARM FRONT, MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF I-94, WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO CONTRIBUTE TO A WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE
LOWEST 5KFT PER THE LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS, IN THE
PRESENCE OF LOCALLY ENHANCED SHEAR INVOF THE WARM FRONT, WILL
PRESENT A LOW-END CHANCE FOR BRIEF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A MARGINAL DIABATICALLY-INDUCED SEVERE WIND THREAT UNTIL
DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST LATER THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE AREA
BECOMES INCREASINGLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR. ONE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTH BEND TO TERRE
HAUTE ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS.
IN ADDITION, MORE UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN JUST SOUTH OF
CHICAGO IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN MCV EVIDENT IN AFTERNOON VISIBLE
IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT, WITH THE
LAST ROUND LIKELY AFFECTING THE METRO AREA SOMETIME AROUND 02-03Z.
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH LATE EVENING/EARLY NIGHT ACTIVITY WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN DUE TO POTENTIAL TRAINING AND PWATS OF 1.6" TO 1.8" ALONG
WITH LIGHTNING. SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME AS THE
SUN ANGLE DECREASES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT RESPONDS TO AN ENCROACHING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. THE
AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP ACTIVITY
BUBBLING WITHIN THE MOISTURE AXIS THROUGH THE NOCTURNAL PERIOD. LOWS
IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW 70 DEGREES.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
GENERALLY ILL-DEFINED FORCING IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT /PW 1.5-2
INCHES/ POSES CHALLENGES FOR DETERMINING POPS TUESDAY...BUT TRIED TO
KEY IN ON SOME FEATURES WITH THIS PACKAGE. WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR CENTRAL LAKE HURON AT 12Z TUESDAY AND MOVING
NORTHEAST...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW...BISECTING
LOWER MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR OVER OKLAHOMA WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD...REACHING IN/OH BY
00Z WEDNESDAY. WEAK AREA OF MIDLEVEL DEFORMATION NORTH OF THIS WAVE
MAY PROVIDE SOME LIFT OVER SE MI...ALONG WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
FORCING FROM 70KT JET OVER NORTHERN LOWER. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS
FORCING BY UPGRADING THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA TO ENTRY-LEVEL
LIKELY POPS FROM 15-21Z. ALSO LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES OVER
THE SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. SEVERE
POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK TOO OVERWHELMING...ESPECIALLY IF MORNING
ACTIVITY HAMPERS DESTABILIZATION. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
TOTALLY IMPRESSIVE AT 6-6.5 K/KM. IF PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATER
AND SOME MORE RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KT COULD RESULT IN SOME BETTER ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THAT SCENARIO. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY IN
ANY MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE EAST/WEST
ORIENTED COLD FRONT SHOULD SPELL AN END TO MOST POPS AFTER
00Z...THOUGH IT IS NOT A VERY AGRESSIVE FRONTAL PUSH...SO LOW TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S.
LOWER THETA-E AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ON WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE OVER ONTARIO ATTEMPTS TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO LOWER MI.
THIS WILL BE COMPLICATED BY THE PASSAGE OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
DURING THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECIDED LACK OF MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE HOWEVER...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. GFS IS SHOWING MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION AROUND 900MB FOR MOST OF THE DAY...SO
HAVE KEPT A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AROUND UNTIL THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY IN THE MID-70S TO NEAR 80.
THE HIGH WILL HAVE MORE SUCCESS BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN...SO EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL ALLOW
DRY CONDITIONS TO STICK AROUND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BEFORE RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
MARINE...
ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK FOR THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AS A PAIR OF FRONTS WORK THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST
FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG A LINE FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE
ERIE...SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL VEER WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY
TO WESTERLY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL USHER
NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15
KNOTS...WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP THE WAVES IN CHECK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....DRK/RK
MARINE.......DRK
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
145 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE SINKING INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT A
BETTER SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WILL ARRIVE LATER MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
AS REFERENCED IN THE EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...ONE OF THE MAIN
FORECAST QUESTIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON /IN AN OTHERWISE NEBULOUS
WEATHER REGIME/ IS WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN POP THIS AFTERNOON
OVER INLAND AREAS OF NRN LOWER.
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS WEAK...WITH H5 RIDGING
OVERHEAD AND LOWER LEVEL WEAK H8 THETA-E ADVECTION. MEANWHILE...
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS VERY WEAK/NONDESCRIPT. THIS WILL ALLOW
LAKE BREEZES TO EVOLVE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WITH GENERAL
CONVERGENCE OVER INTERIOR /HIGHER TERRAIN/ AREAS. THOUGH 12Z APX
SOUNDING SHOWED A WEAK CAP NEAR H6 /BASED ON LIFTING A 76/56
PARCEL/ AM INCLINED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER 18Z
FOR INTERIOR AREAS. DECISION BASED IN LARGE PART ON MORNING
VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS...WHICH SHOWS PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS OVER
NW LOWER FROM TVC-FKS-MBL...MID CLOUDS OVER NE LOWER...AND
RELATIVELY SUNNY SKIES ALONG THE US-131/US-127 CORRIDORS. THIS
LATE MORNING DIFFERENTIAL HEATING REGIME /ALREADY SHOWN IN SURFACE
WINDS/ MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TIP SCALES IN FAVOR OF A FEW SHOWERS.
ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE...AND ANY SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE
BRIEF...THOUGH CELLS WILL BE SLOW MOVING.
OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AWAY
FROM THE BIG LAKES IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
...SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS THIS MORNING...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
PATTERN SUMMARY/IMPLICATIONS: VERY SIMILAR STORY TO WHAT WE
DISCUSSED 24 HOURS AGO WITH CLOSED LOW SITTING OVER
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER MICHIGAN NORTH
INTO ONTARIO SQUEEZED AGAINST LARGER SCALE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA. SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT AS THEY RUN INTO THE
OVERHEAD RIDGE AXIS...WITH THE MOST RECENT WAVE OF DEEP MOISTURE NOW
BEGINNING TO PULL EAST OF THE STATE. DRILLING DOWN TO THE SURFACE
ALSO REVEALS STRONG SIMILARITY TO ONE DAY AGO WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY AND A SURFACE LOW BENEATH THE CLOSE FEATURE
OVER MANITOBA. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE
REMAINS STALLED OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. WEAK POSITIVE THETAE
ADVECTION AT H8 CONTINUES TO FORCE SHRAS PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE STAGNANT NATURE OF THE
PATTERN...FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/IMPACTS ON
TEMPERATURES.
TODAY...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES: OVERHEAD H8 THETAE GRADIENT STALLS OVER
EASTERN CHIP/MACK SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER THROUGH NOON
BEFORE BEING PUSHED NORTH AND EAST. WITH DEEP MOISTURE WANING /SEE
CURRENT WV IMAGERY/...EXPECT COVERAGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...BUT LIKELY NOT QUIT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WARRANTING A CHANCE POP/SCATTERED WORDING HERE. AS
WE LOOK INTO THE AFTERNOON...FOCUS TURNS TO POPPING ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITH A SOMEWHAT MOISTER LLEVEL AIRMASS THAN 24 HOURS
PREVIOUS. STILL THINK THE NAM IS TOO ROBUST WITH LLEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT EVEN THE FAR MORE CONSERVATIVE RAP ALLOWS FOR 500-750
JOULES OF MUCAPE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF INTERIOR
NORTHERN LOWER. QG FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NIL OVERHEAD WITH SLOWLY
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT REQUIRING LAKE BREEZES/UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE TO
PUSH US TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HAVE TROUBLE BELIEVING WE CAN GET
AROUND MODEST CAPPING NEAR H7 PURELY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER PROCESSES.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN GOING DRY FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
QPF: BASIN WIDE AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT...LESS THAN 0.05". ISOLATED
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE NEAR 0.20" GIVEN MODEST PWATS/WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS AND LIGHT STEERING FLOW.
TEMPERATURES: T8S NEAR +12C AT 00Z WITH CONTINUED SLOW WARMING
THROUGH TODAY SUGGESTS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BEST YESTERDAYS HIGHS
AND GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HANDLES THIS WELL...WITH MID/UPPER 70S INLAND
AND CLOSER TO 70 AT THE LAKE-BREEZE COOLED COASTS.
WINDS: CONTINUED LIGHT GRADIENT FAVORS ROBUST LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES: WITH NO HELPFUL LLEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION...CHANCES WILL BE CONTINGENT ON AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTATION THAT
WE/LL REMAIN SHOWER FREE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TONIGHT PERIOD AS WELL.
QPF: NIL.
TEMPERATURES: WILL STICK NEAR GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN THE MID 50S AS
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODEST RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
GEOSTROPHIC FLOW AT 1000MB NEAR 10KTS LIKELY STILL ALLOW MOST
LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE.
WINDS: CALM OR LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOWS EXPECTED.
FOG: WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO PULL EAST...CAN SEE
SOME INCREASED FOG POTENTIAL AS LLEVEL FLOW GAINS A SOUTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT WITH CONTINUED WEAK LLEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ENOUGH
CLEARING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED 2M
DEWPOINTS. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
IMPACTS: MINIMAL. SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOK UNLIKELY.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION:
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND WILL
SEE A SHALLOW AND PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL AMPLITUDE PATTERN THROUGH A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE WORK WEEK. THEN...HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE HEART OF
THE COUNTRY...INCLUDING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO TWO LARGE UPPER/CLOSED LOWS DROPPING INTO THE PAC NW/NEW ENGLAND.
AN INCREASINGLY MUGGIER AIR MASS MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY...AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION...WILL GET
COOLED AND DRIED DOWN LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL START RISING BACK UP AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER EARLY TUESDAY DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT
FANTASTIC.
MON-TUES:
THE BEST ACTION RESIDES IN THIS TIME FRAME. SHALLOW RIDGING EXITS
EAST...WHILE AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS ONTARIO BACKS
WINDS ALOFT WSW. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL
LIFT UP ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. THIS LOW PRESSURE DOESN`T LOOK ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT A WARM FRONT WILL EDGE UP THROUGH MUCH OF NRN
LOWER...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXITING NEAR TUESDAY MORNING.
AS THE SFC LOW DEPARTS...ANOTHER COLD FRONT...ONE WITH MORE
REFRESHING AIR...WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN BY OVER
NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT (UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING). COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO A FEW SECTIONS OF NW LOWER MONDAY
MORNING...AND ALSO SOME POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM FURTHER
WEST...BUT THE USING AN EXPECTED AVERAGE PARCEL OF 80/61 (DEW
POINT IS SOME QUESTION)...CAN POSSIBLY GLEAN 1000-1300 J/KG MONDAY
LATE AFTERNOON. RIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONTAL ARRIVAL. THE LOW TRACKS
OVER NRN MICHIGAN WITH MAINLY NRN LOWER SNEAKING INTO THE WARM
SECTOR FOR THE EVENING (TIMING ALSO IN SOME QUESTION). SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST MONDAY NIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH NOTHING
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE DEVELOPMENTS SURROUNDING
WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY. THERE IS A TIGHTENING IN THE MID LEVEL
FLOW (40KTS)...AND IF THE INSTABILITY ABOVE CAN BE HAD...AND BEING
IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHILE EASTERN UPPER GETS GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS...NRN LOWER COULD SEE STRONGER CELLS. CELLS THAT
WILL BE IN A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR GUSTY WINDS/SMALLISH HAIL AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF A ROGUE TORNADO. THAT`S AN AWFUL LOT OF IF`S
THOUGH. AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...AND SECONDARY COOL FRONT GETS
DROPPED THROUGH US...WITH MINIMAL FORCING...DIMINISHING MOISTURE AND
A TOTAL LACK OF INSTABILITY DUE TO MORE OF A COL AREA IN STORE FOR
US. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S MONDAY WILL START COOLING OFF...WITH
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S/70F IN EASTERN UPPER...AND UPPER 70S
NEARER SAGINAW BAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND:
AN EVEN COOLER DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MAINLY IN THE 60S...A
FEW LOWER 70S...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS
FROM ONTARIO. SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY. THERE ARE DEFINITE HINTS AT
SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY TRACKING THROUGH US THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR RAIN SHOWER CHANCES...BEFORE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISES BEGIN
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND FOR A RETURN TO MIDDLE 70S TO
LOWER 80S TEMPS. EARLY HINTS ARE FOR NO PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND
WITH ALL THE HEAT AND INSTABILITY RESIDING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE NRN MI
WITH CONTINUED VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH ONLY SCATTERED CU AND PATCHES OF MID LEVEL AC
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...WITH GENERAL ONSHORE LAKE
BREEZES ANTICIAPTED. SOME PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE NEXT RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL ARRIVE BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MONDAY ALLOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
HEADLINES: WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT LEVEL
WINDS UNDER NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTS THE REGION TO THE EAST. AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS EAST OF THE
REGION HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME
WITH HEADLINE FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THUNDERSTORMS: CHANCES FOR STORMS INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT IS LOW...BUT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SMD
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...BS
MARINE...ARNOTT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
115 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
CNTRL SASK/MANITOBA AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE NRN LAKES TO
JAMES BAY. AT THE SFC...TROUGH EXTENDED INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS AND
CNTRL NEBRASKA FROM LOW PRES NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WHILE HIGH PRES
PREVAILED TO THE EAST FROM SRN QUEBEC INTO THE NRN LAKES. A SHRTWV
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW SUPPORTED SOME SHRA/TSRA FROM NW
ONTARIO TO NEAR KELO. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER AND MORE WIDEPSREAD
CONVECTION WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH FROM ERN NEBRASKA INTO WRN IA WHERE
THE MORE FAVORABLE INSTABIILITY (MUCPAE TO NEAR 2K J/KG) AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WAS LOCATED. OTHERWISE...MAINLY LOW STRATUS
PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW THE 925 MB INVERSION.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MODEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NW ONTARIO SHRTWV WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE RIDGE. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BREAK UP THE LOWER CLOUDS SO THAT
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND WHILE
LAKE BREEZES LIMIT READINGS TO THE 60S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE NAM
AND SEVERAL HIGHER RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA OVER MAINLY THE WEST THIRD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SINCE MORE MODEST MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE
300-600 J/KG RANGE ARE EXPECTED AND LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NOT
FCST...CONFIDENCE FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS LOW AND ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED.
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EDGE TOWARD THE WRN CWA OVERNIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS. THERE
IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE PCPN AS THE RIDGE
TO THE EAST LIMITS THE MOVEMENT OF THE MOISTURE AXIS TO THE EAST. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER CONVECTION IS MORE LIKELY OVER
NRN IA OR SRN MN INTO SRN WI THAT WOULD LIMIT MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
MONDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A SHOWERY DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN FINALLY OPENS UP AND SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID MS VLY AND MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT UNTIL THE LOW PASSES
BY TUE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.P. MON MORNING THEN SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
AS THE 850MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MOVES EAST.
WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FROM THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AS WELL AS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE
/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES/...EXPECT A FEW AREAS
ACROSS THE WEST HALF TO SEE 0.50 TO 1.0 INCHES OF RAIN MONDAY UNDER
THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY. AS SUCH...WILL
KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON MONDAY. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAISE POPS MORE...BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY EXACTLY WHERE THE BEST RAIN WILL SET
UP.
AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD.
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF UPPER
MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS EAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT
TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEST.
TUESDAY MAY END UP BEING A FAIRLY RAW DAY ACROSS AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF UPPER MI WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW
COMBINED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DUE TO THE CONTINUE 850MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS THE AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ALTHOUGH CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR MAY SEE MORE
DRIZZLE THAN ANYTHING. AREAS CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR MAY STRUGGLE TO
RISE OUT OF THE MID 50S ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH INLAND AREAS WILL SEE
TEMPS RISE WELL INTO THE 60S.
FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO
A DRY PERIOD THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON THRU THU
ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING
INTO THE UPPER LAKES DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGING FINALLY BUILDS
IN FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL.
MAY BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPS...BUT LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE RAIN CHANCES
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT/SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS COULD ROLL IN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
AT CMX. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT CMX AND IWD BUT
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REDUCE CONDITIONS BELOW VFR AT IWD AND THE FOG
WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT CMX. UPSLOPE FOG WILL FORM AT SAW
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THEN AS
WINDS GO TO THE SW LATE...THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT SAW AND IWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS WEST AND
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PERSISTENT
LIGHT E OR SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR DENSE FOG WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN THE FOG OR LOW STRATUS TODAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DRY AIR
MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON TO MIX OUT THE FOG BUT THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT AN EXTENSION OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ162-240>248-263>265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1123 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE SINKING INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT A
BETTER SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WILL ARRIVE LATER MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
AS REFERENCED IN THE EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...ONE OF THE MAIN
FORECAST QUESTIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON /IN AN OTHERWISE NEBULOUS
WEATHER REGIME/ IS WHETHER A FEW SHOWERS CAN POP THIS AFTERNOON
OVER INLAND AREAS OF NRN LOWER.
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS WEAK...WITH H5 RIDGING
OVERHEAD AND LOWER LEVEL WEAK H8 THETA-E ADVECTION. MEANWHILE...
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS VERY WEAK/NONDESCRIPT. THIS WILL ALLOW
LAKE BREEZES TO EVOLVE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WITH GENERAL
CONVERGENCE OVER INTERIOR /HIGHER TERRAIN/ AREAS. THOUGH 12Z APX
SOUNDING SHOWED A WEAK CAP NEAR H6 /BASED ON LIFTING A 76/56
PARCEL/ AM INCLINED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AFTER 18Z
FOR INTERIOR AREAS. DECISION BASED IN LARGE PART ON MORNING
VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS...WHICH SHOWS PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS OVER
NW LOWER FROM TVC-FKS-MBL...MID CLOUDS OVER NE LOWER...AND
RELATIVELY SUNNY SKIES ALONG THE US-131/US-127 CORRIDORS. THIS
LATE MORNING DIFFERENTIAL HEATING REGIME /ALREADY SHOWN IN SURFACE
WINDS/ MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TIP SCALES IN FAVOR OF A FEW SHOWERS.
ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE...AND ANY SHOWER THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BE
BRIEF...THOUGH CELLS WILL BE SLOW MOVING.
OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AWAY
FROM THE BIG LAKES IN THE 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
...SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS THIS MORNING...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
PATTERN SUMMARY/IMPLICATIONS: VERY SIMILAR STORY TO WHAT WE
DISCUSSED 24 HOURS AGO WITH CLOSED LOW SITTING OVER
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER MICHIGAN NORTH
INTO ONTARIO SQUEEZED AGAINST LARGER SCALE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA. SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT AS THEY RUN INTO THE
OVERHEAD RIDGE AXIS...WITH THE MOST RECENT WAVE OF DEEP MOISTURE NOW
BEGINNING TO PULL EAST OF THE STATE. DRILLING DOWN TO THE SURFACE
ALSO REVEALS STRONG SIMILARITY TO ONE DAY AGO WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY AND A SURFACE LOW BENEATH THE CLOSE FEATURE
OVER MANITOBA. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE
REMAINS STALLED OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. WEAK POSITIVE THETAE
ADVECTION AT H8 CONTINUES TO FORCE SHRAS PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE STAGNANT NATURE OF THE
PATTERN...FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/IMPACTS ON
TEMPERATURES.
TODAY...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES: OVERHEAD H8 THETAE GRADIENT STALLS OVER
EASTERN CHIP/MACK SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER THROUGH NOON
BEFORE BEING PUSHED NORTH AND EAST. WITH DEEP MOISTURE WANING /SEE
CURRENT WV IMAGERY/...EXPECT COVERAGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...BUT LIKELY NOT QUIT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WARRANTING A CHANCE POP/SCATTERED WORDING HERE. AS
WE LOOK INTO THE AFTERNOON...FOCUS TURNS TO POPPING ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITH A SOMEWHAT MOISTER LLEVEL AIRMASS THAN 24 HOURS
PREVIOUS. STILL THINK THE NAM IS TOO ROBUST WITH LLEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT EVEN THE FAR MORE CONSERVATIVE RAP ALLOWS FOR 500-750
JOULES OF MUCAPE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF INTERIOR
NORTHERN LOWER. QG FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NIL OVERHEAD WITH SLOWLY
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT REQUIRING LAKE BREEZES/UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE TO
PUSH US TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HAVE TROUBLE BELIEVING WE CAN GET
AROUND MODEST CAPPING NEAR H7 PURELY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER PROCESSES.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN GOING DRY FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
QPF: BASIN WIDE AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT...LESS THAN 0.05". ISOLATED
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE NEAR 0.20" GIVEN MODEST PWATS/WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS AND LIGHT STEERING FLOW.
TEMPERATURES: T8S NEAR +12C AT 00Z WITH CONTINUED SLOW WARMING
THROUGH TODAY SUGGESTS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BEST YESTERDAYS HIGHS
AND GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HANDLES THIS WELL...WITH MID/UPPER 70S INLAND
AND CLOSER TO 70 AT THE LAKE-BREEZE COOLED COASTS.
WINDS: CONTINUED LIGHT GRADIENT FAVORS ROBUST LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES: WITH NO HELPFUL LLEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION...CHANCES WILL BE CONTINGENT ON AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTATION THAT
WE/LL REMAIN SHOWER FREE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TONIGHT PERIOD AS WELL.
QPF: NIL.
TEMPERATURES: WILL STICK NEAR GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN THE MID 50S AS
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODEST RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
GEOSTROPHIC FLOW AT 1000MB NEAR 10KTS LIKELY STILL ALLOW MOST
LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE.
WINDS: CALM OR LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOWS EXPECTED.
FOG: WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO PULL EAST...CAN SEE
SOME INCREASED FOG POTENTIAL AS LLEVEL FLOW GAINS A SOUTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT WITH CONTINUED WEAK LLEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ENOUGH
CLEARING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED 2M
DEWPOINTS. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
IMPACTS: MINIMAL. SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOK UNLIKELY.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION:
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND WILL
SEE A SHALLOW AND PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL AMPLITUDE PATTERN THROUGH A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE WORK WEEK. THEN...HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE HEART OF
THE COUNTRY...INCLUDING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO TWO LARGE UPPER/CLOSED LOWS DROPPING INTO THE PAC NW/NEW ENGLAND.
AN INCREASINGLY MUGGIER AIR MASS MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY...AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION...WILL GET
COOLED AND DRIED DOWN LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL START RISING BACK UP AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER EARLY TUESDAY DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT
FANTASTIC.
MON-TUES:
THE BEST ACTION RESIDES IN THIS TIME FRAME. SHALLOW RIDGING EXITS
EAST...WHILE AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS ONTARIO BACKS
WINDS ALOFT WSW. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL
LIFT UP ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. THIS LOW PRESSURE DOESN`T LOOK ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT A WARM FRONT WILL EDGE UP THROUGH MUCH OF NRN
LOWER...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXITING NEAR TUESDAY MORNING.
AS THE SFC LOW DEPARTS...ANOTHER COLD FRONT...ONE WITH MORE
REFRESHING AIR...WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN BY OVER
NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT (UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING). COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO A FEW SECTIONS OF NW LOWER MONDAY
MORNING...AND ALSO SOME POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM FURTHER
WEST...BUT THE USING AN EXPECTED AVERAGE PARCEL OF 80/61 (DEW
POINT IS SOME QUESTION)...CAN POSSIBLY GLEAN 1000-1300 J/KG MONDAY
LATE AFTERNOON. RIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONTAL ARRIVAL. THE LOW TRACKS
OVER NRN MICHIGAN WITH MAINLY NRN LOWER SNEAKING INTO THE WARM
SECTOR FOR THE EVENING (TIMING ALSO IN SOME QUESTION). SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST MONDAY NIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH NOTHING
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE DEVELOPMENTS SURROUNDING
WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY. THERE IS A TIGHTENING IN THE MID LEVEL
FLOW (40KTS)...AND IF THE INSTABILITY ABOVE CAN BE HAD...AND BEING
IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHILE EASTERN UPPER GETS GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS...NRN LOWER COULD SEE STRONGER CELLS. CELLS THAT
WILL BE IN A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR GUSTY WINDS/SMALLISH HAIL AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF A ROGUE TORNADO. THAT`S AN AWFUL LOT OF IF`S
THOUGH. AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...AND SECONDARY COOL FRONT GETS
DROPPED THROUGH US...WITH MINIMAL FORCING...DIMINISHING MOISTURE AND
A TOTAL LACK OF INSTABILITY DUE TO MORE OF A COL AREA IN STORE FOR
US. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S MONDAY WILL START COOLING OFF...WITH
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S/70F IN EASTERN UPPER...AND UPPER 70S
NEARER SAGINAW BAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND:
AN EVEN COOLER DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MAINLY IN THE 60S...A
FEW LOWER 70S...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS
FROM ONTARIO. SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY. THERE ARE DEFINITE HINTS AT
SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY TRACKING THROUGH US THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR RAIN SHOWER CHANCES...BEFORE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISES BEGIN
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND FOR A RETURN TO MIDDLE 70S TO
LOWER 80S TEMPS. EARLY HINTS ARE FOR NO PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND
WITH ALL THE HEAT AND INSTABILITY RESIDING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
SUMMARY: A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD WITH A FEW
SHOWERS FOR THE MORNING ON SUNDAY. THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
RESTRICTIONS: ONLY THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
COME THROUGH DAYBREAK AT MBL/TVC. PRETTY MUCH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST FROM ONE DAY AGO AT MBL/TVC WITH SOME DETERIORATION LIKELY
THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW PERIODS OF IFR CIGS
/AND POTENTIALLY VSBYS/ TO MBL...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS /AND
POTENTIALLY VSBYS/ AT TVC.
ELSEWHERE...BKN VFR CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHRAS WILL CONTINUE
BEFORE THINNING CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING. A FAVORABLE FOG SETUP
LOOKS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z MONDAY.
WINDS: LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO LOCAL LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
AGAIN DIMINISH TO CALM/LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS THIS EVENING.
LLWS: NO THREATS THIS CYCLE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MONDAY ALLOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
HEADLINES: WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT LEVEL
WINDS UNDER NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTS THE REGION TO THE EAST. AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS EAST OF THE
REGION HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME
WITH HEADLINE FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THUNDERSTORMS: CHANCES FOR STORMS INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT IS LOW...BUT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SMD
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...ARNOTT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
748 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
CNTRL SASK/MANITOBA AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE NRN LAKES TO
JAMES BAY. AT THE SFC...TROUGH EXTENDED INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS AND
CNTRL NEBRASKA FROM LOW PRES NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WHILE HIGH PRES
PREVAILED TO THE EAST FROM SRN QUEBEC INTO THE NRN LAKES. A SHRTWV
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW SUPPORTED SOME SHRA/TSRA FROM NW
ONTARIO TO NEAR KELO. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER AND MORE WIDEPSREAD
CONVECTION WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH FROM ERN NEBRASKA INTO WRN IA WHERE
THE MORE FAVORABLE INSTABIILITY (MUCPAE TO NEAR 2K J/KG) AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WAS LOCATED. OTHERWISE...MAINLY LOW STRATUS
PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW THE 925 MB INVERSION.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MODEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NW ONTARIO SHRTWV WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE RIDGE. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BREAK UP THE LOWER CLOUDS SO THAT
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND WHILE
LAKE BREEZES LIMIT READINGS TO THE 60S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE NAM
AND SEVERAL HIGHER RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA OVER MAINLY THE WEST THIRD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SINCE MORE MODEST MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE
300-600 J/KG RANGE ARE EXPECTED AND LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NOT
FCST...CONFIDENCE FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS LOW AND ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED.
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EDGE TOWARD THE WRN CWA OVERNIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS. THERE
IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE PCPN AS THE RIDGE
TO THE EAST LIMITS THE MOVEMENT OF THE MOISTURE AXIS TO THE EAST. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER CONVECTION IS MORE LIKELY OVER
NRN IA OR SRN MN INTO SRN WI THAT WOULD LIMIT MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
MONDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A SHOWERY DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN FINALLY OPENS UP AND SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID MS VLY AND MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT UNTIL THE LOW PASSES
BY TUE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.P. MON MORNING THEN SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
AS THE 850MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MOVES EAST.
WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FROM THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AS WELL AS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE
/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES/...EXPECT A FEW AREAS
ACROSS THE WEST HALF TO SEE 0.50 TO 1.0 INCHES OF RAIN MONDAY UNDER
THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY. AS SUCH...WILL
KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON MONDAY. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAISE POPS MORE...BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY EXACTLY WHERE THE BEST RAIN WILL SET
UP.
AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD.
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF UPPER
MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS EAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT
TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEST.
TUESDAY MAY END UP BEING A FAIRLY RAW DAY ACROSS AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF UPPER MI WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW
COMBINED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DUE TO THE CONTINUE 850MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS THE AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ALTHOUGH CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR MAY SEE MORE
DRIZZLE THAN ANYTHING. AREAS CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR MAY STRUGGLE TO
RISE OUT OF THE MID 50S ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH INLAND AREAS WILL SEE
TEMPS RISE WELL INTO THE 60S.
FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO
A DRY PERIOD THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON THRU THU
ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING
INTO THE UPPER LAKES DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGING FINALLY BUILDS
IN FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL.
MAY BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPS...BUT LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE RAIN CHANCES
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT/SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL
ALLOW THE FOG/STRATUS TO BURN OFF AND CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION
GRADUALLY TO VFR BY NOON. MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS COULD ROLL IN OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AT CMX. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AT CMX AND IWD BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REDUCE CONDITIONS
BELOW VFR. A THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS WEST AND
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PERSISTENT
LIGHT E OR SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR DENSE FOG WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN THE FOG OR LOW STRATUS TODAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DRY AIR
MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON TO MIX OUT THE FOG BUT THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT AN EXTENSION OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ162-240>248-263>265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
525 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
CNTRL SASK/MANITOBA AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE NRN LAKES TO
JAMES BAY. AT THE SFC...TROUGH EXTENDED INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS AND
CNTRL NEBRASKA FROM LOW PRES NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG WHILE HIGH PRES
PREVAILED TO THE EAST FROM SRN QUEBEC INTO THE NRN LAKES. A SHRTWV
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW SUPPORTED SOME SHRA/TSRA FROM NW
ONTARIO TO NEAR KELO. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER AND MORE WIDEPSREAD
CONVECTION WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH FROM ERN NEBRASKA INTO WRN IA WHERE
THE MORE FAVORABLE INSTABIILITY (MUCPAE TO NEAR 2K J/KG) AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WAS LOCATED. OTHERWISE...MAINLY LOW STRATUS
PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MI WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW THE 925 MB INVERSION.
TODAY...EXPECT THAT THE SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MODEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NW ONTARIO SHRTWV WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE RIDGE. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BREAK UP THE LOWER CLOUDS SO THAT
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND WHILE
LAKE BREEZES LIMIT READINGS TO THE 60S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THE NAM
AND SEVERAL HIGHER RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHRA/TSRA OVER MAINLY THE WEST THIRD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SINCE MORE MODEST MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE
300-600 J/KG RANGE ARE EXPECTED AND LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NOT
FCST...CONFIDENCE FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS LOW AND ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED.
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EDGE TOWARD THE WRN CWA OVERNIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS. THERE
IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE PCPN AS THE RIDGE
TO THE EAST LIMITS THE MOVEMENT OF THE MOISTURE AXIS TO THE EAST. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER CONVECTION IS MORE LIKELY OVER
NRN IA OR SRN MN INTO SRN WI THAT WOULD LIMIT MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO
THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
MONDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A SHOWERY DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN FINALLY OPENS UP AND SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD.
MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES
TOWARD THE REGION. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID MS VLY AND MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT UNTIL THE LOW PASSES
BY TUE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.P. MON MORNING THEN SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
AS THE 850MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MOVES EAST.
WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FROM THE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AS WELL AS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE
/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES/...EXPECT A FEW AREAS
ACROSS THE WEST HALF TO SEE 0.50 TO 1.0 INCHES OF RAIN MONDAY UNDER
THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY. AS SUCH...WILL
KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON MONDAY. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO RAISE POPS MORE...BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY EXACTLY WHERE THE BEST RAIN WILL SET
UP.
AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD.
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF UPPER
MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH. AS SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS EAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT
TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEST.
TUESDAY MAY END UP BEING A FAIRLY RAW DAY ACROSS AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF UPPER MI WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE LOW
COMBINED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DUE TO THE CONTINUE 850MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS THE AREA AND DEEP MOISTURE. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ALTHOUGH CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR MAY SEE MORE
DRIZZLE THAN ANYTHING. AREAS CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR MAY STRUGGLE TO
RISE OUT OF THE MID 50S ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH INLAND AREAS WILL SEE
TEMPS RISE WELL INTO THE 60S.
FOR TUE NIGHT/WED...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO
A DRY PERIOD THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON THRU THU
ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING
INTO THE UPPER LAKES DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGING FINALLY BUILDS
IN FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL.
MAY BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPS...BUT LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THE RAIN CHANCES
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT NIGHT/SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
WITH LINGERING LLVL MSTR UNDER MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD STATUS AND FOG IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING TNGT.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE...WITH EVEN VLIFR/BLO LANDING
MINIMUM CONDITIONS AT CMX WITH AN E UPSLOPE WIND. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THERE COULD BE BLO LANDING MIN CONDITIONS AT SAW AND IWD
TOO. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME LLVL DRYING WL
ALLOW THE FOG/STRATUS TO BURN OFF AND CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION
GRADUALLY TO VFR BY NOON. MORE FOG AND LO CLDS COULD ROLL IN OFF LK
SUP THIS EVNG AT CMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS WEST AND
CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PERSISTENT
LIGHT E OR SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR DENSE FOG WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN THE FOG OR LOW STRATUS TODAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DRY AIR
MOVING IN THIS AFTERNOON TO MIX OUT THE FOG BUT THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT AN EXTENSION OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ162-240>248-263>265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
316 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE SINKING INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...BUT A
BETTER SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WILL ARRIVE LATER MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
...SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS THIS MORNING...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
PATTERN SUMMARY/IMPLICATIONS: VERY SIMILAR STORY TO WHAT WE
DISCUSSED 24 HOURS AGO WITH CLOSED LOW SITTING OVER
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER MICHIGAN NORTH
INTO ONTARIO SQUEEZED AGAINST LARGER SCALE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA. SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO SHEAR OUT AS THEY RUN INTO THE
OVERHEAD RIDGE AXIS...WITH THE MOST RECENT WAVE OF DEEP MOISTURE NOW
BEGINNING TO PULL EAST OF THE STATE. DRILLING DOWN TO THE SURFACE
ALSO REVEALS STRONG SIMILARITY TO ONE DAY AGO WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER HUDSON BAY AND A SURFACE LOW BENEATH THE CLOSE FEATURE
OVER MANITOBA. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE
REMAINS STALLED OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. WEAK POSITIVE THETAE
ADVECTION AT H8 CONTINUES TO FORCE SHRAS PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE STAGNANT NATURE OF THE
PATTERN...FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/IMPACTS ON
TEMPERATURES.
TODAY...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES: OVERHEAD H8 THETAE GRADIENT STALLS OVER
EASTERN CHIP/MACK SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER THROUGH NOON
BEFORE BEING PUSHED NORTH AND EAST. WITH DEEP MOISTURE WANING /SEE
CURRENT WV IMAGERY/...EXPECT COVERAGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS GRADIENT TO WEAKEN...BUT LIKELY NOT QUIT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WARRANTING A CHANCE POP/SCATTERED WORDING HERE. AS
WE LOOK INTO THE AFTERNOON...FOCUS TURNS TO POPPING ANY DIURNAL
CONVECTION WITH A SOMEWHAT MOISTER LLEVEL AIRMASS THAN 24 HOURS
PREVIOUS. STILL THINK THE NAM IS TOO ROBUST WITH LLEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT EVEN THE FAR MORE CONSERVATIVE RAP ALLOWS FOR 500-750
JOULES OF MUCAPE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF INTERIOR
NORTHERN LOWER. QG FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NIL OVERHEAD WITH SLOWLY
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT REQUIRING LAKE BREEZES/UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE TO
PUSH US TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HAVE TROUBLE BELIEVING WE CAN GET
AROUND MODEST CAPPING NEAR H7 PURELY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER PROCESSES.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN GOING DRY FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
QPF: BASIN WIDE AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT...LESS THAN 0.05". ISOLATED
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE NEAR 0.20" GIVEN MODEST PWATS/WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS AND LIGHT STEERING FLOW.
TEMPERATURES: T8S NEAR +12C AT 00Z WITH CONTINUED SLOW WARMING
THROUGH TODAY SUGGESTS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BEST YESTERDAYS HIGHS
AND GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HANDLES THIS WELL...WITH MID/UPPER 70S INLAND
AND CLOSER TO 70 AT THE LAKE-BREEZE COOLED COASTS.
WINDS: CONTINUED LIGHT GRADIENT FAVORS ROBUST LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES: WITH NO HELPFUL LLEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION...CHANCES WILL BE CONTINGENT ON AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTATION THAT
WE/LL REMAIN SHOWER FREE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TONIGHT PERIOD AS WELL.
QPF: NIL.
TEMPERATURES: WILL STICK NEAR GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN THE MID 50S AS
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODEST RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
GEOSTROPHIC FLOW AT 1000MB NEAR 10KTS LIKELY STILL ALLOW MOST
LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE.
WINDS: CALM OR LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOWS EXPECTED.
FOG: WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO PULL EAST...CAN SEE
SOME INCREASED FOG POTENTIAL AS LLEVEL FLOW GAINS A SOUTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT WITH CONTINUED WEAK LLEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ENOUGH
CLEARING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED 2M
DEWPOINTS. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
IMPACTS: MINIMAL. SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOK UNLIKELY.
SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION:
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD OF MONDAY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND WILL
SEE A SHALLOW AND PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL AMPLITUDE PATTERN THROUGH A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE WORK WEEK. THEN...HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE HEART OF
THE COUNTRY...INCLUDING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO TWO LARGE UPPER/CLOSED LOWS DROPPING INTO THE PAC NW/NEW ENGLAND.
AN INCREASINGLY MUGGIER AIR MASS MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY...AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION...WILL GET
COOLED AND DRIED DOWN LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL START RISING BACK UP AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER EARLY TUESDAY DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT
FANTASTIC.
MON-TUES:
THE BEST ACTION RESIDES IN THIS TIME FRAME. SHALLOW RIDGING EXITS
EAST...WHILE AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS ONTARIO BACKS
WINDS ALOFT WSW. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL
LIFT UP ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. THIS LOW PRESSURE DOESN`T LOOK ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT A WARM FRONT WILL EDGE UP THROUGH MUCH OF NRN
LOWER...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXITING NEAR TUESDAY MORNING.
AS THE SFC LOW DEPARTS...ANOTHER COLD FRONT...ONE WITH MORE
REFRESHING AIR...WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN BY OVER
NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT (UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING). COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS POSSIBLY SNEAKING INTO A FEW SECTIONS OF NW LOWER MONDAY
MORNING...AND ALSO SOME POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM FURTHER
WEST...BUT THE USING AN EXPECTED AVERAGE PARCEL OF 80/61 (DEW
POINT IS SOME QUESTION)...CAN POSSIBLY GLEAN 1000-1300 J/KG MONDAY
LATE AFTERNOON. RIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONTAL ARRIVAL. THE LOW TRACKS
OVER NRN MICHIGAN WITH MAINLY NRN LOWER SNEAKING INTO THE WARM
SECTOR FOR THE EVENING (TIMING ALSO IN SOME QUESTION). SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST MONDAY NIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH NOTHING
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE DEVELOPMENTS SURROUNDING
WIND FIELDS AND INSTABILITY. THERE IS A TIGHTENING IN THE MID LEVEL
FLOW (40KTS)...AND IF THE INSTABILITY ABOVE CAN BE HAD...AND BEING
IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHILE EASTERN UPPER GETS GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS...NRN LOWER COULD SEE STRONGER CELLS. CELLS THAT
WILL BE IN A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR GUSTY WINDS/SMALLISH HAIL AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF A ROGUE TORNADO. THAT`S AN AWFUL LOT OF IF`S
THOUGH. AFTER THE LOW DEPARTS...AND SECONDARY COOL FRONT GETS
DROPPED THROUGH US...WITH MINIMAL FORCING...DIMINISHING MOISTURE AND
A TOTAL LACK OF INSTABILITY DUE TO MORE OF A COL AREA IN STORE FOR
US. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S MONDAY WILL START COOLING OFF...WITH
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S/70F IN EASTERN UPPER...AND UPPER 70S
NEARER SAGINAW BAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND:
AN EVEN COOLER DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MAINLY IN THE 60S...A
FEW LOWER 70S...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS
FROM ONTARIO. SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY. THERE ARE DEFINITE HINTS AT
SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY TRACKING THROUGH US THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR RAIN SHOWER CHANCES...BEFORE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISES BEGIN
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND FOR A RETURN TO MIDDLE 70S TO
LOWER 80S TEMPS. EARLY HINTS ARE FOR NO PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND
WITH ALL THE HEAT AND INSTABILITY RESIDING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
SUMMARY: A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD WITH A FEW
SHOWERS FOR THE MORNING ON SUNDAY. THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
RESTRICTIONS: ONLY THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
COME THROUGH DAYBREAK AT MBL/TVC. PRETTY MUCH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST FROM ONE DAY AGO AT MBL/TVC WITH SOME DETERIORATION LIKELY
THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW PERIODS OF IFR CIGS
/AND POTENTIALLY VSBYS/ TO MBL...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS /AND
POTENTIALLY VSBYS/ AT TVC.
ELSEWHERE...BKN VFR CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHRAS WILL CONTINUE
BEFORE THINNING CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING. A FAVORABLE FOG SETUP
LOOKS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z MONDAY.
WINDS: LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE GIVING WAY TO LOCAL LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
AGAIN DIMINISH TO CALM/LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS THIS EVENING.
LLWS: NO THREATS THIS CYCLE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OFF
THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MONDAY ALLOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS LOW FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
HEADLINES: WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT LEVEL
WINDS UNDER NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTS THE REGION TO THE EAST. AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS EAST OF THE
REGION HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME
WITH HEADLINE FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THUNDERSTORMS: CHANCES FOR STORMS INCREASE ON MONDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT IS LOW...BUT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMD
SHORT TERM...ARNOTT
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...ARNOTT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
858 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.UPDATE...AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVING OFF INTO ALABAMA THIS EVENING
BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS MOVING INTO THE DELTA. THIS COMPLEX OF
STORMS IS LOCATED BETWIXT TWO UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURES...ONE OVER
TEXAS AND ANOTHER RIDING UP INTO MISSOURI. THIS IS HELPING TO FEED
THIS COMPLEX MORE THAN JUST DAYTIME HEATING. IN ADDITION...THERE IS
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL FLOW FEEDING GOOD MOISTURE INTO THIS REGION.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN SOME STRENGTH AND PUSH EAST ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS...HOWEVER...IS NOT DEPICTED IN OTHER HI-RES
MODEL RUNS. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT NUMEROUS COVERAGE IN THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT. THERE ALSO IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
GOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN DECENT SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR HOURLY CONDITIONS. /28/
&&
.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER AR/NRN LA BEING SUPPORTED BY
FAVORABLE JET STREAM DYNAMICS AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE SUGGEST STORMS FROM THIS COMPLEX
COULD INCREASE ACROSS THE GLH/GWO/JAN/HKS AREA OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST
UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND GREATER LOW LEVEL MIXING
SHOULD LIMIT FOG PRODUCTION...BUT THERE COULD BE A BIT MORE MVFR
CATEGORY STRATOCU DURING THE 09-15Z TIME FRAME GIVEN INCREASING
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY LL FLOW. EXPECT STRATOCU DECK TO MIX OUT WITH
ABUNDANT CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS A FEW
SHRA/TSRA. /EC/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION UNFOLDING
ACROSS THE REGION ABOUT AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAJORITY IN
THE EAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING INDICATED WELL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
MARKED DECREASE IN OVERALL CLOUD PRODUCTION OVER E AR/NE LA.
MCV...FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION... SPINNING ABOUT OVER NE OK AT THE
MOMENT WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WEAK SURFACE FRONT ANCHORED TO IT. BOTH
OF THESE FEATURES ARE SERVING TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE ARKLATEX REGION AND WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER
OVERNIGHT.
CO-LOCATED WITH THE MCV AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AT A LARGER SCALE IS A
RATHER DECENT MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE STRETCHING NORTHWARD INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY. WITH SUPPORT ALOFT...BELIEVE LOW LEVEL
FEATURES WILL BE SUSTAINED WITH THE TROF AS THEY MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE ALSO HANDLING THE ENHANCED 25-35 KNOT H85 FLOW
ANALYZED OVER E TX THIS MORNING IN BRINGING IT NE IN ADVANCE OF THE
LOW LEVEL FEATURES TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE ISENTROPIC LIFT...AS
WELL AS...GOOD THETA-E ADVECTION IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. WHILE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME STRONG
STORMS OVER N MS OVERNIGHT GIVEN 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25
KNOTS...MEAGER LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP MORE INTENSE STORMS AT
BAY. AM MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL GIVEN PW/S
NEAR 2 INCHES...STEADY INFLUX OF HIGH THETA-E AIR AND SLOWING
SURFACE BOUNDARY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE A CONCERN IN STORMS OVER NORTH MS TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
WHAT EXACT SCENARIO WILL OCCUR WITH HIGH VARIANCE IN HIRES MODEL
OUTPUT.
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS WELL TOMORROW IN CONVECTIVE SCENARIO AS
THESE FEATURES LOOK TO POSSIBLY PULL EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING.
REGARDLESS...SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET AS
SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORM FOR POPS AS RIDGING ALOFT AND PW/S AROUND OR BELOW 1.5 INCHES
SHOULD ALLOW A MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TO CONTEND WITH.
DECIDED TO UP MINS AND LOWER MAXES A COUPLE DEGREES DURING THIS
PERIOD GIVEN TRENDS LAST COUPLE OF DAYS DURING THIS WET PERIOD./26/
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY WET PATTERN
WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS SUBTLE
UPPER TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. IN SPITE OF THIS
FEATURE...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE AS
IT WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY INSTABILITY WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. NEVERTHELESS...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...THE EURO CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER
RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ECM ENSEMBLE WHICH ALSO INDICATES MEAN RIDGING
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF/SOUTHEAST US. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH DAILY CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE AREA AS MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM
AND SUPPRESSION INCREASES. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO
INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES WITH FEWER CLOUDS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
AROUND. THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THUS POPS
WERE TRENDED DOWNWARD THROUGH THIS PERIOD. /DL/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 69 89 70 91 / 46 44 29 18
MERIDIAN 68 90 68 92 / 43 42 45 17
VICKSBURG 72 89 70 90 / 54 42 20 19
HATTIESBURG 72 92 71 91 / 40 28 20 22
NATCHEZ 72 89 70 89 / 27 24 18 25
GREENVILLE 73 88 70 92 / 68 28 18 18
GREENWOOD 70 86 69 92 / 64 43 20 18
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
28/EC/26/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
102 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2014
Once again the main forecast issue is thunderstorm chances. The
only ongoing precipitation early this morning is a shrinking area
of showers in Pike Co MO. This originated from a NW-SE cluster of
thunderstorms which occurred just north of Mexico in response to
lift via a weak westerly LLJ along the cool side of a large scale
outflow boundary. That boundary remains somewhat identifiable
from far southern IL into central/NW MO. While there is no clear
cut model solution, there are suggestions by the deterministic
guidance which are supported by recent runs of the HRRR and the
4km NSSL WRF that this confluent zone from central through
southeast MO will be the region of scattered thunderstorm
development beginning near midday, with activity shifting east thru
the afternoon. There may be a region of somewhat greater coverage
and organization across northeast Missouri and west central IL
resulting from an eastward migrating vort max which is now present
in the central Plains. Highs once again look seasonable in the
upper 80s to lower 90s.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2014
The greatest threat of thunderstorms tonight should also reside
across the northern portion of the CWA where the consensus of the
model QPFs have the highest coverage. This appears reasonable as a cold
front will be pushing into IA and NW MO in association with a much
better defined slowly progressive short wave trof and attendant
vort maxes. Strengthening and veering wind fields and a stronger
veering WSW LLJ should result in good eastward progression of
organized convection. The cold front will move slowly across the
area Monday and Monday night and should be accompanied by fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms. The models vary on how far
south the front will push on Tuesday with the NAM showing the
least progression only into southern IL and southern MO while the
GFS and SREF push the front into AR. Eventually the front will
retreat back northward and be the focus for additional showers and
thunderstorms through the later half of the upcoming week. The NAM
is just about 12-24h faster thru its 84h forecast ending Wednesday.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2014
Scattered thunderstorms are the primary concern this afternoon.
Greater coverage should be across the eastern Ozarks and northeast
Missouri/west central Illinois this afternoon. Unfortunately,
there`s little forcing in the atmosphere today to latch on to and
try to figure timing at any given TAF site. This will definitely be
a reactionary afternoon of updating forecasts as thunderstorm
cells pop up. VFR flight conditions will prevail outside of
storms. Storms should diminish after sunset.
A weak trof of low pressure will move into the area on Monday.
Expect more widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop and
overspread the area from late morning into Monday afternoon.
Specifics for KSTL:
Scattered thunderstorms are the primary concern this afternoon.
Unfortunately, there`s little forcing in the atmosphere today to
latch on to and try to figure timing at Lambert. This will
definitely be a reactionary afternoon of updating forecasts as
thunderstorm cells pop up. VFR flight conditions will prevail
outside of storms. Storms should diminish after sunset.
A weak trof of low pressure will move into the area on Monday.
Expect more widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop and
overspread the area from late morning into Monday afternoon.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
606 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2014
Once again the main forecast issue is thunderstorm chances. The
only ongoing precipitation early this morning is a shrinking area
of showers in Pike Co MO. This originated from a NW-SE cluster of
thunderstorms which occurred just north of Mexico in response to
lift via a weak westerly LLJ along the cool side of a large scale
outflow boundary. That boundary remains somewhat identifiable
from far southern IL into central/NW MO. While there is no clear
cut model solution, there are suggestions by the deterministic
guidance which are supported by recent runs of the HRRR and the
4km NSSL WRF that this confluent zone from central through
southeast MO will be the region of scattered thunderstorm
development beginning near midday, with activity shifting east thru
the afternoon. There may be a region of somewhat greater coverage
and organization across northeast Missouri and west central IL
resulting from an eastward migrating vort max which is now present
in the central Plains. Highs once again look seasonable in the
upper 80s to lower 90s.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2014
The greatest threat of thunderstorms tonight should also reside
across the northern portion of the CWA where the consensus of the
model QPFs have the highest coverage. This appears reasonable as a cold
front will be pushing into IA and NW MO in association with a much
better defined slowly progressive short wave trof and attendant
vort maxes. Strengthening and veering wind fields and a stronger
veering WSW LLJ should result in good eastward progression of
organized convection. The cold front will move slowly across the
area Monday and Monday night and should be accompanied by fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms. The models vary on how far
south the front will push on Tuesday with the NAM showing the
least progression only into southern IL and southern MO while the
GFS and SREF push the front into AR. Eventually the front will
retreat back northward and be the focus for additional showers and
thunderstorms through the later half of the upcoming week. The NAM
is just about 12-24h faster thru its 84h forecast ending Wednesday.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2014
A hot and humid air mass with plenty of leftover outflow
boundaries will support yet another day of low-predictability
scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Widespread
precipitation is expected just beyond the end of the 24hr TAF
period.
Specifics for KSTL: A hot and humid air mass with plenty of
leftover outflow boundaries will support yet another day of
low-predictability scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms.
Widespread precipitation is expected near the end of the 30hr TAF
period (primarily after 23/12z) due to the approach of a cold
front and an upper level disturbance.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
400 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2014
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2014
Once again the main forecast issue is thunderstorm chances. The
only ongoing precipitation early this morning is a shrinking area
of showers in Pike Co MO. This originated from a NW-SE cluster of
thunderstorms which occured just north of Mexico in response to
lift via a weak westerly LLJ along the cool side of a large scale
outflow boundary. That boundary remains somewhat identifiable
from far southern IL into central/NW MO. While there is no clear
cut model solution, there are suggestions by the deterministic
guidance which are supported by recent runs of the HRRR and the
4km NSSL WRF that this confluent zone from central through
southeast MO will be the region of scattered thunderstorm
development beginning near midday, with activity shifting east thru
the afternoon. There may be a region of somewhat greater coverage
and organization across northeast Missouri and west central IL
resulting from an eastward migrating vort max which is now present
in the central Plains. Highs once again look seasonable in the
upper 80s to lower 90s.
Glass
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2014
The greatest threat of thunderstorms tonight should also reside
across the northern portion of the CWA where the consensus of the
model QPFs have the highest coverage. This appears reasonable as a cold
front will be pushing into IA and NW MO in association with a much
better defined slowly progressive short wave trof and attendant
vort maxes. Strengthening and veering wind fields and a stronger
veering WSW LLJ should result in good eastward progression of
organized convection. The cold front will move slowly across the
area Monday and Monday night and should be accompanied by fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms. The models vary on how far
south the front will push on Tuesday with the NAM showing the
least progression only into southern IL and southern MO while the
GFS and SREF push the front into AR. Eventually the front will
retreat back northward and be the focus for additional showers and
thunderstorms through the later half of the upcoming week. The NAM
is just about 12-24h faster thru its 84h forecast ending Wednesday.
Glass
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2014
Most of the convection across the area should dissipate by 06z
Sunday with only high level convective debris cloudiness remaining
late tonight which should thin out. There may be some fog late
tonight/early Sunday morning due to the recent rainfall and as the
surface wind becomes light. Diurnal cumulus clouds will develop
again late Sunday morning and afternoon with at least widely
scattered showers/storms expected Sunday afternoon into the
evening. Surface winds should be mainly s-swly on Sunday, then
weaken Sunday evening.
Specifics for KSTL: Lingering thundershowers should dissipate or
shift southeast of STL by 06z Sunday. After this mainly just
thinning high level convective debris clouds late tonight along
with the surface wind becoming light. Diurnal cumulus clouds will
develop again late Sunday morning and afternoon with at least
widely scattered showers/storms Sunday afternoon into the evening.
Light surface wind will become s-swly Sunday afternoon, then
weaken again Sunday evening.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1202 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2014
While remnants of evening storms dissipate fairly rapidly from
southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois, spotty convection
continues to linger north of COU. Given the somewhat persistent
and stubborn nature of this activity, am beginning to wonder if
some low chance of storms wont persist throughout the night over
our western areas, as very weak WAA of resdiually unstable air overruns
the rain-cooled airmass, and produces just enough lift to generate
spotty convection. Lastest RUC forecasts are certainly suggesting
this, with even the 12z NCEP 4km at least hinting in this
direction. So, update will be issued shortly which continues low
PoPs from central into ne MO and west central IL during the
overnight hours.
Truett
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2014
Thunderstorm trends remain the primary focus of the short term
forecast. Expecting storms up over northeast MO and west central IL
to become more widespread through boundary interactions and
collisions. Airmass is very unstable with SBCAPE in excess of 4500
J/kg and SB-LIs of -9 to -10 all the way back into central and east
central MO. Expect that outflows from the storms up north will
propagate southward which will provide triggers for further
development. Storms could form into clusters or perhaps even a
broken line before dissipating this evening, most likely somewhere
near or just south of the Missouri River. There may be some patchy
fog late tonight in any areas that receive rain this evening, but
have left mention out for now due to the potentially patchy nature
of the rain. Temperatures tonight should be similar to what we
experienced last night so used a blend of guidance and persistence
for lows tonight.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2014
The current pattern we are in will continue relatively unaltered
through late Thursday, with a flat west-east mid-level flow and
periodic effects from upper level disturbances or MCVs. This
alludes to a continuation of our unsettled wx and TSRA chances thru
much of this period, only being limited when available moisture
becomes a factor, or enhanced when a clear focus can be seen.
Rich atmospheric moisture will continue in place over our region
into Monday night, with PWs in excess of 1.5", tailing off a bit on
Tuesday and Wednesday, and returning for Thursday.
With that in mind, a similar setup will be found Sunday that we have
had the past few days for most locations, with weak boundaries, very
weak CINH and hi instability during the peak heating times, which
then fade with sunset. Some enhanced PoPs were maintained in
northeast MO for late afternoon with influences from the southern
periphery of the MCV du jour which is expected to be centered in IA
at that time, but by and large, the convection looks to be pretty
random, forming where enough local convergence can occur to initiate
and will be hard to detect until we get closer.
Better chances for SHRA/TSRA are expected on Monday and Monday night
with a more significant shortwave TROF that will pass into this
convectively favorable atmosphere--and went likely PoPs as a result.
Tuesday and Wednesday, at this time, look to be a couple of dry days
for most areas, but an intrusion from a strong enough upper level
disturbance would change that.
Rain chances return for a widespread area on Thursday with the
return of rich and deep moisture and another upper level shortwave.
A deep and amplified upper TROF is then expected to dig into the
western CONUS for the end of the week. The models diverge on what
this means for our area, but they do agree on rising heights and
upper ridging returning, but aren`t as sure on if that will be
accompanied by upper level disturbances or not. At this point, felt
prudent to fall back to climo PoPs in most places given the model
impasse.
Temps will remain relatively unchanged the next seven days with
temps at or a bit above normal, with Monday looking like the only
day where some areas may see below normal temps depending on how
fast the clouds and rain move in.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2014
Most of the convection across the area should dissipate by 06z
Sunday with only high level convective debris cloudiness remaining
late tonight which should thin out. There may be some fog late
tonight/early Sunday morning due to the recent rainfall and as the
surface wind becomes light. Diurnal cumulus clouds will develop
again late Sunday morning and afternoon with at least widely
scattered showers/storms expected Sunday afternoon into the
evening. Surface winds should be mainly s-swly on Sunday, then
weaken Sunday evening.
Specifics for KSTL: Lingering thundershowers should dissipate or
shift southeast of STL by 06z Sunday. After this mainly just
thinning high level convective debris clouds late tonight along
with the surface wind becoming light. Diurnal cumulus clouds will
develop again late Sunday morning and afternoon with at least
widely scattered showers/storms Sunday afternoon into the evening.
Light surface wind will become s-swly Sunday afternoon, then
weaken again Sunday evening.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014
What else would one expect for the official first day of summer
other than an uncapped tropical airmass defined by high CAPEs and
weak shear with isolated convection along weak boundaries. Very weak
and isolated convection continues to sputter across northern MO this
afternoon in a region of weak h8 convergence. Increasing convection
is noted in a region of moderate h8 moisture convergence which
extends southwest from west central IL cluster into the east central
CWA. HRRR has been picking out this general area for most of today.
Will focus higher PoPs for the late afternoon and early evening
hours this area. A small MCV over south central NE left over from
earlier convection is drifting east towards slightly higher MLCAPEs
around 2000 J/kg. Will insert low chance PoPs for this evening for
nw and north central MO for possible convective development. Last
several runs of the HRRR generates scattered convection this area.
Expect another complex convective scenario tonight. Current
convection over the NE Panhandle may eventually merge with another
nocturnal MCS that rolls off the CO Front Range and heads east. Will
throw in some PoPs over northwest MO towards Sunday morning to cover
the possibility of a dying MCS reaching the CWA.
Continued very warm and humid on Sunday with above average
temperatures. Low confidence on placement of PoPs as any outflow
boundaries left over from tonight`s convection will play a key role.
Sunday night into Monday still holds the highest PoPs during this
forecast period. While the models have started to diverge on where
another nocturnal MCS will track there is good consensus that a cold
front moving southeast through NE/IA/KS will play a pivotal role.
Have had to lower qpf during this period as confidence on a large
MCS moving through the CWA has diminished. But should see good
coverage of convection with the front. High precipitable water
values are a concern should storms crawl through or back build along
the front. So, later forecasts may need to ramp qpf back up.
While Tuesday looks dry and a tad cooler behind the front weak
embedded disturbances within the quasi-zonal pattern will provide
a lot of uncertainty on timing and location of any convection for
Wednesday/Wednesday night.
The upper pattern evolves for the latter half of the week as an
upper trough pushes through the intermountain region. The backing
flow downstream will enable a southwesterly fetch to spread through
the Central Plains and Mid MO Valley. Should see a slight uptick in
temperatures and humidity with warmer air aloft spreading into the
CWA and forcing any convection to become elevated and more nocturnal.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014
VFR conditions are likely to occur for the entire forecast with
generally light southerly winds. Forecast soundings cotninue to show
a nearly to fully uncapped environment tomorrow afternoon with what
should be a multitude of remnant boundaries for storms to possibly
develop on. Have added a VCTS group for the afternoon given this
possibility. Of greater likelihood to impact the terminals is the
potential for more widespread storms to move through very late in the
forecast. There is a significant amount of uncertainty with the
timing of this ranging from around 00Z Monday to after 06Z Monday.
Given this, will just keep the VCTS group through the end of the
forecast as the potential from afternoon storms may evolve into the
potential for more widespread evening/overnight storms.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...CDB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
341 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
AT 19Z...WATER VAPOR SHOWED QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER. MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES COULD BE
PICKED OUT MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...FROM MONTANA DOWN THROUGH NEW
MEXICO. THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE WAS SEEN OVER WESTERN COLORADO AT MID
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE
SECOND MORE DISTINCT SHORTWAVE SEEN OVER EASTERN IDAHO...WHICH WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS
SITUATED FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. NORTH OF
THIS FRONT COLD AIR HAD ADVECTED INTO NEBRASKA...WITH MID AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S. DECENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DID REMAIN IN PLACE...AS DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA WERE
STILL IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AN EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD HAD DEVELOPED
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. DESPITE DECENT SB INSTABILITY OF 1500-2500
J/KG WITH NO CAP...ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE HAD A PROBLEM
MAINTAINING WITH NO ADDITIONAL FORCING IN PLACE.
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE HRRR IS INDICATING
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM
OVER THE ROCKIES...FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE WEAK WITH THE LACK OF
FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND VERY LITTLE IF ANY FORCING COMING
FROM ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SO WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVITY
MOVING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
OVER WESTERN COLORADO MOVES EAST EXPECT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP. THE
LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AS FAR
NORTH AS SCOTTSBLUFF. THESE STORMS WOULD THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG A
THETA-E GRADIENT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING...THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF ANY ACTIVITY AND WITH THE BETTER FORCING OVER
KANSAS EXPECT THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA.
FOR MONDAY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER EASTERN IDAHO WILL MOVE
ACROSS WYOMING AND THEN ACROSS NEBRASKA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
NOT EXTREMELY CONFIDENT ON HOW MUCH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE WILL BE AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
DRIER...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND NO REAL SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE ALOFT. AT THE PRESENT TIME THINK ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHERE THE
CONVECTION WILL ACTUALLY BE. THE NAM SHOWS QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF ARE KEEPING IT MAINLY OVER THE
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. HAVE SIDED WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FOR
TODAY AND HAVE LIMITED CHANCES FOR THE WESTERN AREAS. AS FOR HIGHS
ON MONDAY...LOOKING FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOW 80S AS COOLER AIR SLOWLY CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF TWO DISTINCT DISTURBANCES. MAINTAINED 30
POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...TO 40 POPS
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES FROM GFS INDICATE 120 TO NEAR 140
PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO 30 TO 40
KTS. THIS SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTION NEAR 10 KTS.
SECOND DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH 40 POPS TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY 40 POPS FOR
NCTRL WEDNESDAY.
MAINLY 20 TO 30 POPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DUE TO WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE REGION AND SWRLY FLOW TO OUR WEST WHICH MOVES IN BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...MODEL AGREEMENT IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS RATHER
POOR. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL WARM FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S TUESDAY...MID 80S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TO AROUND 90 BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS MULTIPLE WEAK SYSTEMS
CROSS THE ROCKIES TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD THOUGH. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED. HAVE THE MENTION OF VCTS AT KLBF AS THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CONFIDENCE ON ANY MOVING ACROSS THE
KVTN TERMINAL IS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THUNDER MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THAT LOCATION. ANOTHER SYSTEM DOES LOOK TO CROSS
NEBRASKA ON MONDAY...BUT TIMING INTO THE TAF SITES WOULD LIKELY BE
LATE IN THE PERIOD OR POSSIBLY AFTER 18Z...IF ACTIVITY DOES IN
FACT DEVELOP. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO CURRENTLY SO A QUIET
FORECAST IS ONGOING CURRENTLY FOR MONDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
309 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN CENTERS AROUND THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. OVER THE LAST 8 HOURS
HAVE GREATLY REDUCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE GREATEST REDUCTION IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAS BEEN ACROSS NEBRASKA.
THERE IS MODEST TO EVEN FAIRLY GOOD INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ESPECIALLY ACROSS KANSAS...WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN. WIND SHEAR IS
RATHER WEAK WITH DEEP LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR OF LESS THAN 30 KTS. THE
BIG ISSUE CENTERS AROUND FORCING OR THE LIFTING MECHANISM FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. FORCING MECHANISMS ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER IOWA...A SOUTHWARD SLIPPING
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...AND A VERY WEAK UPPER
WAVE CENTERED OVER THE BLACK HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA EXTENDING INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE SFC FRONT IS THE PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AND IT IS
GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH WHERE IT WILL EXIT OUR AREA BY LATER THIS
EVENING. THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORMS SEEM MOST LIKELY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SFC
FRONT OVER NORTHERN KANSAS AND THUS HAVE KEPT POPS AROUND 50/50 IN
THESE SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH THE HIGHER POPS REALLY BEING SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SOME FORECAST MODELS GENERATE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE VERY WEAK
UPPER WAVE...BUT 4 OUT OF 6 MODELS HAVE THIS PRECIPITATION DIEING
OFF BEFORE REALLY REACHING OUR AREA TONIGHT. ONE OUTSIDE WRF RUN AND
THE HRRR DO BRING CONVECTION FROM WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT WHILE MOST MODELS DO NOT.
WILL GO WITH THE MAJORITY GIVEN THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL JET
TO HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTION TONIGHT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN FORM THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACROSS KANSAS
COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.
MONDAY...MOST FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN
WEAK SHORT WAVE STORM SYSTEMS AND LIKELY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND KEEPING THINGS A BIT COOLER THAN
TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIODS
WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST FM CANADA TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
REGION AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONING WEST NORTHWEST FOR A TIME AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION. A SERIES OF WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW WILL AID IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH TIMING/PLACEMENT DEPENDENT
UPON WAVE TIMING AND BOUNDARY LOCATIONS AND BOUNDARY LOCATION WILL
BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW CONVECTION UNFOLDS THE PREVIOUS DAY. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT DETAILS ATTM AND WITH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
JUST CANNOT RULE OUT TSTM CHCS NEARLY EVERY DAY. CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND ROLL EASTWARD...OR MAY INITIATE
ALONG A BOUNDARY WITHIN THE AREA.
SREF INSTABILITY PROGS INDICATE THE GREATER INSTABILITY MONDAY NIGHT
WILL RESIDE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE 1000 J/KG. WITH THE MORE MARGINAL INSTABILITY ON
TUESDAY...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH SEVERE WX JUST YET WITH INSTABILITY
FURTHER INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MID WEEK WITH RETURN
FLOW...STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLVL JET AND WAA/UPPER RIDGING AHEAD
OF UPPER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW. UPPER RIDGING SETTLES OVERHEAD
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK AND MID LEVEL TEMPS INCREASE TO
AROUND 14C SO CAP MAY LIMIT CONVECTION FOR A TIME. MODELS ARE NOT
IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING/PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
AS IT PUSHES EAST THRU THE MOUNTAINS TOWARDS THE PLAINS AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR BUT CHCS FOR STORMS INCREASE AGAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL BEING SAID...INTERMITTENT CHANCES
FOR STORMS CONTINUE AND TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY SEASONAL ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
REDUCED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVEN FURTHER WITH LATEST UPDATE BASED
ON LATEST FORECAST MODEL RUNS. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KGRI
IS NOW AROUND 30 PERCENT AT ITS HIGHEST POINT AND THIS MAY BE ON
THE HIGH SIDE. THEREFORE...HAVE ELECTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF
VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TAF. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AND
TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE A BIT VARIABLE TONIGHT. VFR SKY
AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1247 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED FOR PRECIPITATION AND WEATHER FOR TODAY.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED. THE
RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS MOVED EAST
OF THE AREA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW WEAK RADAR ECHOES THAT
HAVE MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY...THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE STAYED NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING THIS ACTIVITY FAIRLY
WELL...HAVING IT MOVE STRAIGHT EAST RATHER THAN DIPPING SOUTH AS
HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. DUE TO THESE TRENDS...CHANCES HAVE
BEEN REMOVED FOR MOST PLACES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE IS
SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...IN THE ORDER OF 500-1500 J/KG
SB CAPE ACCORDING TO THE SPC MESOANALYST PAGE AT 1530Z. THIS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A
LACK OF FORCING THOUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVES ARE LOOKING TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THEN OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO
KANSAS LATER IN THE DAY. FEEL THAT THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH THE LACK OF FORCING
ACTIVITY SHOULDN/T BE WIDESPREAD SO HAVE LOWERED THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
OUTFLOW DOMINANT TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS MORNING. STORM DEVELOPMENT IS BEING AIDED BY MODEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION AS SHOWN BY THE RAP MODEL AND NOCTURNAL COOLING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE RAP SHOWS THIS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHIFTING OFF EAST OF THE FCST AREA TOWARD 12Z WITH THE
HEAVY RAIN BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION REDEVELOPING BUT NOT
NEARLY AS UNSTABLE AS IT IS NOW. SCATTERED POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
MONDAY AND BEYOND. ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED AS PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE WORKS WITH A NORTHWARD
RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PERIODIC WEAK IMPULSES PASSING
THROUGH THE WESTERLIES IN QUASI ZONAL FLOW...THUS...NEAR
DAILY/NIGHTLY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO REMAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. LOOKING TO LATE WEEK...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS APPEARS TO UNDERGO A TRANSITION AS
THERE REMAINS STRONG AGREEMENT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW AMPLITUDE TRANSITORY
RIDGING THURSDAY MAY PROVIDE FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD...BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP BACK UP WITH THE APPROACH OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH LATE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND.
FOR THE DAILY DETAILS...DRIER AIR TO WORK ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON MONDAY...WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION BEING WHERE WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT SUBTLE WAVE MAY PROVIDE FOR
A FEW STORMS MONDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THIS AREA...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE TIED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE CWA. A MORE NOTABLE WAVE ARRIVES ON
TUESDAY WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
STORMS...POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TO MODERATE HIGH PLAINS
LLJ. TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE PROJECTED CONVECTION AND/OR
COMPLEXES IS NOT READILY APPARENT ATTM...SO WILL GENERALLY
BROADBRUSH 30-40% POPS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH A FRONT
IN THE REGION AND ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE PASSAGE. LIKEWISE...WIDESPREAD
30-40% POPS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY ARE WARRANTED. FOR LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MOST OF THE UPPER ENERGY IS
SHOWN TO BE DIRECTED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT THERE
STILL REMAINS STRONG SUPPORT OF WAVE IMPACTING THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE CR ALLBLEND INT GENERATED CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...GIVEN THIS SUPPORT...SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM THE PROCEDURE ATTM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTEND PERIODS WILL UNDERGO A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
MONDAY...BUT RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY. A FEW LOWER
90S MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE LATE WEEK AS
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW DIRECTS AN AIRMASS FROM THE DESERT SW INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOWS TO REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS MULTIPLE WEAK SYSTEMS
CROSS THE ROCKIES TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD THOUGH. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED. HAVE THE MENTION OF VCTS AT KLBF AS THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. CONFIDENCE ON ANY MOVING ACROSS THE
KVTN TERMINAL IS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THUNDER MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THAT LOCATION. ANOTHER SYSTEM DOES LOOK TO CROSS
NEBRASKA ON MONDAY...BUT TIMING INTO THE TAF SITES WOULD LIKELY BE
LATE IN THE PERIOD OR POSSIBLY AFTER 18Z...IF ACTIVITY DOES IN
FACT DEVELOP. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO CURRENTLY SO A QUIET
FORECAST IS ONGOING CURRENTLY FOR MONDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1217 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
SEVERAL MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TODAY MAINLY TO LOWER MAX
TEMPS A BIT NERN ZONES WHERE RESIDUAL CLOUDS WHERE DECREASED
COVERAGE OF MORNING PRECIP WILL LIKELY HAVE LARGEST IMPACT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FAR SERN NEBR WILL BE EXITING SHORTLY AND AMOUNT OF
ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY REMAINS QUESTIONABLE ON BACK SIDE OF MCV.
HOWEVER...SOME POPS STILL WARRANTED AS SOME HEATING/RECOVERY WILL
OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING TWO DISTINCT CLUSTER OF
TSTMS...ONE OVER ERN SD ASSOCIATED WITH A SEWD BOUND COLD FRONT/MID
LYR UPGLIDE. OTHER ONE WAS SITUATED ALONG INVERTED SFC TROF/THERMAL
BNDRY EXTENDING FROM NW KS INTO S-CNTRL NEB WITHIN AREA OF MID LYR
QG FORCING. THE LATEST HRRR IS ADVERTISING THE NRN ACTIVITY WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHILE SW TSTMS BECOME
DOMINATE FEATURE AND EXPAND INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT EXPECT WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK DESTABILIZATION AND TSTM
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG AXIS OF BNDRY LYR THETA-E CONVG WITH APPROACH
OF FRONTAL BNDRY FROM THE NORTH. AS FOR SEVERE TSTM
POTENTIAL...BOTH NAM AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
HIGH BUOYANCY BUT RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THUS
FAVORING MULTISTORM DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...CANNOT TOTALLY
DISCOUNT A FEW SEVERE STORMS LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PCPN
ACTIVITY WILL BE COMING TO AN END THEN MONDAY MORNING AS DRY
AIRMASS/SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. TUES/TUES
NIGHT...MODELS LAY QPF WEST OF THE CWA WITHIN AREA OF PRONOUNCED
MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT. PCPN ACTIVITY THEN PROGGED TO EXPAND
QUICKLY EWD INTO THE CWA...THUS WILL LEAVE GOING POPS IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
GOING FCST HAS PCPN CHANCES PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE THRU THE EXTENDED
PDS. AT THIS POINT GIVEN LATEST MODELS SUPPORT GOING POPS...SEE
LITTLE REASON FOR MAKING ANY MAJOR MODIFICATIONS. ZONAL FLOW EARLY
ON IN THE FCST PD BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP
UPSTREAM UPPER TROF MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST THURSDAY BEFORE LARGE
SCALE BEGINS SMOOTHING OUT TO NEAR ZONAL NEXT WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCE
PRETTY MUCH REVOLVING AROUND LIFTING WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS. THERMAL ADVECTION WITH THESE
BOUNDARIES LOOKS RELATIVELY WEAK SO NOT MUCH DEVIATION FROM NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
ALTHOUGH MORNING CONVECTION HAD SHIFTED SE OF TAF SITES AS OF
17Z...REDEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS WEAK
BOUNDARY SAGS SE THROUGH AREA. HOWEVER...TIMING AND COVERAGE WAS
VERY UNCERTAIN AND THUS NO MENTION WAS MADE IN 18Z TAFS. TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR QUICK UPDATES IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
OTHERWISE WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND...HEATING INTO EARLY AFTN
COMBINED WITH WEAK OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION COULD ALLOW FOR
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL AT SITES.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHERMOK
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1049 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED FOR PRECIPITATION AND WEATHER FOR TODAY.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED. THE
RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS MOVED EAST
OF THE AREA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW WEAK RADAR ECHOES THAT
HAVE MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY...THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE STAYED NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING THIS ACTIVITY FAIRLY
WELL...HAVING IT MOVE STRAIGHT EAST RATHER THAN DIPPING SOUTH AS
HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. DUE TO THES TRENDS...CHANCES HAVE
BEEN REMOVED FOR MOST PLACES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE IS
SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...IN THE ORDER OF 500-1500 J/KG
SB CAPE ACCORDING TO THE SPC MESOANALYST PAGE AT 1530Z. THIS
SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A
LACK OF FORCING THOUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVES ARE LOOKING TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THEN OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO
KANSAS LATER IN THE DAY. FEEL THAT THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH THE LACK OF FORCING
ACTIVITY SHOULDN/T BE WIDESPREAD SO HAVE LOWERED THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
OUTFLOW DOMINANT TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS MORNING. STORM DEVELOPMENT IS BEING AIDED BY MODEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION AS SHOWN BY THE RAP MODEL AND NOCTURNAL COOLING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE RAP SHOWS THIS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHIFTING OFF EAST OF THE FCST AREA TOWARD 12Z WITH THE
HEAVY RAIN BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION REDEVELOPING BUT NOT
NEARLY AS UNSTABLE AS IT IS NOW. SCATTERED POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
MONDAY AND BEYOND. ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED AS PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE WORKS WITH A NORTHWARD
RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PERIODIC WEAK IMPULSES PASSING
THROUGH THE WESTERLIES IN QUASI ZONAL FLOW...THUS...NEAR
DAILY/NIGHTLY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO REMAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. LOOKING TO LATE WEEK...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS APPEARS TO UNDERGO A TRANSITION AS
THERE REMAINS STRONG AGREEMENT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW AMPLITUDE TRANSITORY
RIDGING THURSDAY MAY PROVIDE FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD...BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP BACK UP WITH THE APPROACH OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH LATE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND.
FOR THE DAILY DETAILS...DRIER AIR TO WORK ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON MONDAY...WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION BEING WHERE WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT SUBTLE WAVE MAY PROVIDE FOR
A FEW STORMS MONDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THIS AREA...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE TIED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE CWA. A MORE NOTABLE WAVE ARRIVES ON
TUESDAY WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
STORMS...POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TO MODERATE HIGH PLAINS
LLJ. TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE PROJECTED CONVECTION AND/OR
COMPLEXES IS NOT READILY APPARENT ATTM...SO WILL GENERALLY
BROADBRUSH 30-40% POPS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH A FRONT
IN THE REGION AND ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE PASSAGE. LIKEWISE...WIDESPREAD
30-40% POPS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY ARE WARRANTED. FOR LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MOST OF THE UPPER ENERGY IS
SHOWN TO BE DIRECTED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT THERE
STILL REMAINS STRONG SUPPORT OF WAVE IMPACTING THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE CR ALLBLEND INT GENERATED CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...GIVEN THIS SUPPORT...SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM THE PROCEDURE ATTM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTEND PERIODS WILL UNDERGO A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
MONDAY...BUT RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY. A FEW LOWER
90S MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE LATE WEEK AS
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW DIRECTS AN AIRMASS FROM THE DESERT SW INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOWS TO REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED TSTMS...VFR IS EXPECTED MOST
AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE DISTURBANCE OVER NERN WY MOVES THROUGH WRN/NCNTL NEB TODAY AND EXITS
THIS EVENING. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS TSTM ACTIVITY WOULD
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA BEFORE EXITING THIS EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
624 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING TWO DISTINCT CLUSTER OF
TSTMS...ONE OVER ERN SD ASSOCIATED WITH A SEWD BOUND COLD FRONT/MID
LYR UPGLIDE. OTHER ONE WAS SITUATED ALONG INVERTED SFC TROF/THERMAL
BNDRY EXTENDING FROM NW KS INTO S-CNTRL NEB WITHIN AREA OF MID LYR
QG FORCING. THE LATEST HRRR IS ADVERTISING THE NRN ACTIVITY WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHILE SW TSTMS BECOME
DOMINATE FEATURE AND EXPAND INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT EXPECT WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK DESTABILIZATION AND TSTM
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG AXIS OF BNDRY LYR THETA-E CONVG WITH APPROACH
OF FRONTAL BNDRY FROM THE NORTH. AS FOR SEVERE TSTM
POTENTIAL...BOTH NAM AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
HIGH BUOYANCY BUT RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THUS
FAVORING MULTISTORM DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...CANNOT TOTALLY
DISCOUNT A FEW SEVERE STORMS LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PCPN
ACTIVITY WILL BE COMING TO AN END THEN MONDAY MORNING AS DRY
AIRMASS/SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. TUES/TUES
NIGHT...MODELS LAY QPF WEST OF THE CWA WITHIN AREA OF PRONOUNCED
MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT. PCPN ACTIVITY THEN PROGGED TO EXPAND
QUICKLY EWD INTO THE CWA...THUS WILL LEAVE GOING POPS IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
GOING FCST HAS PCPN CHANCES PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE THRU THE EXTENDED
PDS. AT THIS POINT GIVEN LATEST MODELS SUPPORT GOING POPS...SEE
LITTLE REASON FOR MAKING ANY MAJOR MODIFICATIONS. ZONAL FLOW EARLY
ON IN THE FCST PD BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP
UPSTREAM UPPER TROF MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST THURSDAY BEFORE LARGE
SCALE BEGINS SMOOTHING OUT TO NEAR ZONAL NEXT WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCE
PRETTY MUCH REVOLVING AROUND LIFTING WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS. THERMAL ADVECTION WITH THESE
BOUNDARIES LOOKS RELATIVELY WEAK SO NOT MUCH DEVIATION FROM NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PASSED BY KOFK/KLNK...AND SHOULD PASS
BY KOMA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER THAT...WITH ALL ACTIVITY MOVING OUT BY MID-
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE BUT MAINLY 10KT OR LESS FROM
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/STORMS MAY REDEVELOP IN NEB
LATER TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL
PLACEMENT...AND HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 00-06Z AS COLD FRONT
SAGS THROUGH TAF SITES...WITH CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
622 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
OUTFLOW DOMINANT TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS MORNING. STORM DEVELOPMENT IS BEING AIDED BY MODEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION AS SHOWN BY THE RAP MODEL AND NOCTURNAL COOLING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE RAP SHOWS THIS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHIFTING OFF EAST OF THE FCST AREA TOWARD 12Z WITH THE
HEAVY RAIN BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION REDEVELOPING BUT NOT
NEARLY AS UNSTABLE AS IT IS NOW. SCATTERED POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
MONDAY AND BEYOND. ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED AS PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE WORKS WITH A NORTHWARD
RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PERIODIC WEAK IMPULSES PASSING
THROUGH THE WESTERLIES IN QUASI ZONAL FLOW...THUS...NEAR
DAILY/NIGHTLY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO REMAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. LOOKING TO LATE WEEK...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS APPEARS TO UNDERGO A TRANSITION AS
THERE REMAINS STRONG AGREEMENT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW AMPLITUDE TRANSITORY
RIDGING THURSDAY MAY PROVIDE FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD...BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP BACK UP WITH THE APPROACH OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH LATE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND.
FOR THE DAILY DETAILS...DRIER AIR TO WORK ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON MONDAY...WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION BEING WHERE WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT SUBTLE WAVE MAY PROVIDE FOR
A FEW STORMS MONDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THIS AREA...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE TIED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE CWA. A MORE NOTABLE WAVE ARRIVES ON
TUESDAY WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
STORMS...POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TO MODERATE HIGH PLAINS
LLJ. TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE PROJECTED CONVECTION AND/OR
COMPLEXES IS NOT READILY APPARENT ATTM...SO WILL GENERALLY
BROADBRUSH 30-40% POPS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH A FRONT
IN THE REGION AND ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE PASSAGE. LIKEWISE...WIDESPREAD
30-40% POPS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY ARE WARRANTED. FOR LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MOST OF THE UPPER ENERGY IS
SHOWN TO BE DIRECTED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT THERE
STILL REMAINS STRONG SUPPORT OF WAVE IMPACTING THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE CR ALLBLEND INT GENERATED CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...GIVEN THIS SUPPORT...SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM THE PROCEDURE ATTM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTEND PERIODS WILL UNDERGO A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
MONDAY...BUT RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY. A FEW LOWER
90S MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE LATE WEEK AS
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW DIRECTS AN AIRMASS FROM THE DESERT SW INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOWS TO REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED TSTMS...VFR IS EXPECTED MOST
AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE DISTURBANCE OVER NERN WY MOVES THROUGH WRN/NCNTL NEB TODAY AND EXITS
THIS EVENING. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS TSTM ACTIVITY WOULD
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SANDHILLS THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA BEFORE EXITING THIS EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
345 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
OUTFLOW DOMINANT TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS MORNING. STORM DEVELOPMENT IS BEING AIDED BY MODEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION AS SHOWN BY THE RAP MODEL AND NOCTURNAL COOLING
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE RAP SHOWS THIS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SHIFTING OFF EAST OF THE FCST AREA TOWARD 12Z WITH THE
HEAVY RAIN BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION REDEVELOPING BUT NOT
NEARLY AS UNSTABLE AS IT IS NOW. SCATTERED POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH BECOME ISOLATED TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
MONDAY AND BEYOND. ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED AS PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE WORKS WITH A NORTHWARD
RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PERIODIC WEAK IMPULSES PASSING
THROUGH THE WESTERLIES IN QUASI ZONAL FLOW...THUS...NEAR
DAILY/NIGHTLY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO REMAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. LOOKING TO LATE WEEK...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS APPEARS TO UNDERGO A TRANSITION AS
THERE REMAINS STRONG AGREEMENT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. LOW AMPLITUDE TRANSITORY
RIDGING THURSDAY MAY PROVIDE FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD...BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP BACK UP WITH THE APPROACH OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH LATE WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND.
FOR THE DAILY DETAILS...DRIER AIR TO WORK ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON MONDAY...WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED
FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION BEING WHERE WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT SUBTLE WAVE MAY PROVIDE FOR
A FEW STORMS MONDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN THIS AREA...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE TIED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE CWA. A MORE NOTABLE WAVE ARRIVES ON
TUESDAY WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
STORMS...POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK TO MODERATE HIGH PLAINS
LLJ. TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE PROJECTED CONVECTION AND/OR
COMPLEXES IS NOT READILY APPARENT ATTM...SO WILL GENERALLY
BROADBRUSH 30-40% POPS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH A FRONT
IN THE REGION AND ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE PASSAGE. LIKEWISE...WIDESPREAD
30-40% POPS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY ARE WARRANTED. FOR LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MOST OF THE UPPER ENERGY IS
SHOWN TO BE DIRECTED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT THERE
STILL REMAINS STRONG SUPPORT OF WAVE IMPACTING THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE CR ALLBLEND INT GENERATED CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...GIVEN THIS SUPPORT...SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM THE PROCEDURE ATTM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTEND PERIODS WILL UNDERGO A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
MONDAY...BUT RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY. A FEW LOWER
90S MAY BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE LATE WEEK AS
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW DIRECTS AN AIRMASS FROM THE DESERT SW INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOWS TO REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE KLBF AND KVTN
TERMINALS THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. VISBYS
MAY DROP AS LOW AS 3SM IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH CIGS
AS LOW AS 5000 FT AGL. CIGS AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND
10000 FT AGL...EXCEPT SUNDAY EVENING WHERE CIGS WILL DROP TO 2500
TO 5000 FT AGL BEHIND AN EXITING FRONT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
239 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING TWO DISTINCT CLUSTER OF
TSTMS...ONE OVER ERN SD ASSOCIATED WITH A SEWD BOUND COLD FRONT/MID
LYR UPGLIDE. OTHER ONE WAS SITUATED ALONG INVERTED SFC TROF/THERMAL
BNDRY EXTENDING FROM NW KS INTO S-CNTRL NEB WITHIN AREA OF MID LYR
QG FORCING. THE LATEST HRRR IS ADVERTISING THE NRN ACTIVITY WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WHILE SW TSTMS BECOME
DOMINATE FEATURE AND EXPAND INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR
TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT EXPECT WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK DESTABILIZATION AND TSTM
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG AXIS OF BNDRY LYR THETA-E CONVG WITH APPROACH
OF FRONTAL BNDRY FROM THE NORTH. AS FOR SEVERE TSTM
POTENTIAL...BOTH NAM AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
HIGH BUOYANCY BUT RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THUS
FAVORING MULTISTORM DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...CANNOT TOTALLY
DISCOUNT A FEW SEVERE STORMS LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. PCPN
ACTIVITY WILL BE COMING TO AN END THEN MONDAY MORNING AS DRY
AIRMASS/SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. TUES/TUES
NIGHT...MODELS LAY QPF WEST OF THE CWA WITHIN AREA OF PRONOUNCED
MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT. PCPN ACTIVITY THEN PROGGED TO EXPAND
QUICKLY EWD INTO THE CWA...THUS WILL LEAVE GOING POPS IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
GOING FCST HAS PCPN CHANCES PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE THRU THE EXTENDED
PDS. AT THIS POINT GIVEN LATEST MODELS SUPPORT GOING POPS...SEE
LITTLE REASON FOR MAKING ANY MAJOR MODIFICATIONS. ZONAL FLOW EARLY
ON IN THE FCST PD BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP
UPSTREAM UPPER TROF MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST THURSDAY BEFORE LARGE
SCALE BEGINS SMOOTHING OUT TO NEAR ZONAL NEXT WEEKEND. PCPN CHANCE
PRETTY MUCH REVOLVING AROUND LIFTING WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS. THERMAL ADVECTION WITH THESE
BOUNDARIES LOOKS RELATIVELY WEAK SO NOT MUCH DEVIATION FROM NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AT KOFK AROUND 00Z/MON.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
147 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL BRIEFLY RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERTORMS.
THEREAFTER...AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS
FOR LATER NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT SUNDAY...STILL CONTENDING WITH VARIABLE MID-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL
VERMONT AT THIS HOUR. 03Z RAP ANALYSES APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE LAYER OF CLOUDINESS...MANIFESTING AS HIGHER RH IN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER. THOUGH THE RAP WANTS TO KEEP THIS MOISTURE
AXIS AROUND THROUGH OVERNIGHT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT THE CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF SOONER THAN THAT. I`VE HAD TO ADJUST
SKY COVER TO KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AROUND BUT
EVENTUALLY CLEARING OUT BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THINK THAT AREAS OF
RIVER VALLEY FOG ARE STILL POSSIBLE BASED ON NARROW T-TD
SPREADS...BUT MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL MORE CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE
TOWARDS MORNING. ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST MINS BY A DEGREE
OR TWO. LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S NORTHEAST KINGDOM
AND ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOW 50S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT SATURDAY...IDEAL EARLY SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL
ALONG WITH BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ABOVE 850 MB. OUTSIDE A FEW
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND/OR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ALONG WITH CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ESSENTIALLY NIL. BLENDED 18-00Z MODEL-AVERAGED 925MB
THERMAL PROGS SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 70S TOMORROW...AND
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY MONDAY AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES. HUMIDITY VALUES TO REMAIN QUITE MODEST HOWEVER SO
DESPITE THE INCREASE IN WARMTH ON MONDAY SENSIBLE CONDITIONS
SHOULD STILL RELATIVELY PLEASANT.
BY MONDAY NIGHT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. CAN`T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY
ACROSS OUR SLV COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LEAD PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT WILL BE PRECIPITATION-FREE.
WITH DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MILDER...LIKELY HOLDING IN THE
60S ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS...AND 50S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SATURDAY...LONG TERM FCST CHALLENGE WL BE TIMING
OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND CHCS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUES INTO WEDS. LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE HAS
INCREASED THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BY 4 TO 8 HRS...RESULTING IN
THE HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING LATE TUES AFTN WESTERN CWA AND
OVERNIGHT TUES INTO WEDS ACRS THE REST OF THE FA. THE ECMWF CONTS
TO BE THE SLOWEST AND WL FOLLOW GIVEN RECENT VERIFICATION. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY FLW WL HELP ADVECT INCREASED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
INTO OUR CWA ON TUESDAY. PWS VALUES REACH BTWN 1.75 AND
2.0"...WHILE SFC DWPTS SURGE INTO THE 60S...CREATING CAPE READINGS
BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG ON TUES AFTN. ALSO...NOTED ON SOUNDINGS
ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SLV NEAR KMSS THE LLVL WIND PROFILES INCREASE
BTWN 30 AND 40 KNOTS AT 85H...SUPPORTING SOME FAVORABLE SHEAR
PARAMETERS. GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...THINKING A FAST
MOVING LINE OF CONVECTION WL BE POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL...ESPECIALLY SLV/DACKS ON
TUES AFTN/EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WL PROBABLY DECREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EAST INTO VT...WHERE INSTABILITY
FROM THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING WL BE LIMITED. CRNT HWO HAS MENTION
OF SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ON TUES. WL MENTION HIGHEST LIKELY POPS LATE TUES INTO
EARLY WEDS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SFC BOUNDARY CLRS OUR CWA BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOCATED ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC/SNE REGION. WL MENTION LIKELY POPS WITH SCHC FOR THUNDER
ON WEDS MORNING. FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS AND
DRY NW FLW ALOFT. LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING
OUR CWA LATE THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...SO PROBABLY ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. BETTER FRNT AND
SOME MID LVL MOISTURE CROSSES OUR REGION LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL CHC FOR SHOWERS. OVERALL...TEMPS START
OUT ABOVE NORMAL ON TUES/WEDS AND TREND BACK SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL
BY LATE WEEK...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFT WEDS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG/BR AT MPV/SLK
08-12Z. OTHERWISE DRY AND SKC-SCT060. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS...BECOMING NW AROUND 5 KTS AFTER 14Z...AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF
OF MAINE WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT S-SW WINDS. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EVE...MAINLY AT THE
NY TAF SITES. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH ANY TSTMS THAT FORM LATE TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE REGION...FOLLOWED
BY CLEARING/MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1252 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASING
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL BRIEFLY RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERTORMS.
THEREAFTER...AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS
FOR LATER NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1252 AM EDT SUNDAY...STILL CONTENDING WITH VARIABLE MID-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL
VERMONT AT THIS HOUR. 03Z RAP ANALYSES APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE LAYER OF CLOUDINESS...MANIFESTING AS HIGHER RH IN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER. THOUGH THE RAP WANTS TO KEEP THIS MOISTURE
AXIS AROUND THROUGH OVERNIGHT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST
THAT THE CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF SOONER THAN THAT. I`VE HAD TO ADJUST
SKY COVER TO KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AROUND BUT
EVENTUALLY CLEARING OUT BY THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THINK THAT AREAS OF
RIVER VALLEY FOG ARE STILL POSSIBLE BASED ON NARROW T-TD
SPREADS...BUT MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL MORE CLEARING CAN TAKE PLACE
TOWARDS MORNING. ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST MINS BY A DEGREE
OR TWO. LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S NORTHEAST KINGDOM
AND ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOW 50S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 308 PM EDT SATURDAY...IDEAL EARLY SUMMER WEATHER CONTINUES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL
ALONG WITH BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ABOVE 850 MB. OUTSIDE A FEW
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND/OR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ALONG WITH CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ESSENTIALLY NIL. BLENDED 18-00Z MODEL-AVERAGED 925MB
THERMAL PROGS SUGGEST HIGHS SOLIDLY INTO THE 70S TOMORROW...AND
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY MONDAY AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
COMMENCES. HUMIDITY VALUES TO REMAIN QUITE MODEST HOWEVER SO
DESPITE THE INCREASE IN WARMTH ON MONDAY SENSIBLE CONDITIONS
SHOULD STILL RELATIVELY PLEASANT.
BY MONDAY NIGHT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. CAN`T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY
ACROSS OUR SLV COUNTIES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LEAD PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT WILL BE PRECIPITATION-FREE.
WITH DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MILDER...LIKELY HOLDING IN THE
60S ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS...AND 50S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SATURDAY...LONG TERM FCST CHALLENGE WL BE TIMING
OF SFC BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND CHCS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUES INTO WEDS. LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE HAS
INCREASED THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BY 4 TO 8 HRS...RESULTING IN
THE HIGHEST POPS OCCURRING LATE TUES AFTN WESTERN CWA AND
OVERNIGHT TUES INTO WEDS ACRS THE REST OF THE FA. THE ECMWF CONTS
TO BE THE SLOWEST AND WL FOLLOW GIVEN RECENT VERIFICATION. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY FLW WL HELP ADVECT INCREASED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
INTO OUR CWA ON TUESDAY. PWS VALUES REACH BTWN 1.75 AND
2.0"...WHILE SFC DWPTS SURGE INTO THE 60S...CREATING CAPE READINGS
BTWN 800 AND 1200 J/KG ON TUES AFTN. ALSO...NOTED ON SOUNDINGS
ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SLV NEAR KMSS THE LLVL WIND PROFILES INCREASE
BTWN 30 AND 40 KNOTS AT 85H...SUPPORTING SOME FAVORABLE SHEAR
PARAMETERS. GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...THINKING A FAST
MOVING LINE OF CONVECTION WL BE POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL...ESPECIALLY SLV/DACKS ON
TUES AFTN/EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WL PROBABLY DECREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EAST INTO VT...WHERE INSTABILITY
FROM THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING WL BE LIMITED. CRNT HWO HAS MENTION
OF SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ON TUES. WL MENTION HIGHEST LIKELY POPS LATE TUES INTO
EARLY WEDS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SFC BOUNDARY CLRS OUR CWA BY 18Z
WEDS...WITH BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOCATED ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC/SNE REGION. WL MENTION LIKELY POPS WITH SCHC FOR THUNDER
ON WEDS MORNING. FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS AND
DRY NW FLW ALOFT. LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWS POTENT 5H VORT CROSSING
OUR CWA LATE THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...SO PROBABLY ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. BETTER FRNT AND
SOME MID LVL MOISTURE CROSSES OUR REGION LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL CHC FOR SHOWERS. OVERALL...TEMPS START
OUT ABOVE NORMAL ON TUES/WEDS AND TREND BACK SLIGHTLY BLW NORMAL
BY LATE WEEK...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFT WEDS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG/BR AT
MSS/MPV/SLK. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WHICH COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...MAY LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG/BR. OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS NIGHT`S...SO TIMING OF FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD PLAY OUT
SIMILAR AS WELL. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED ARE THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES AT SLK/MSS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER FORECAST
LOWS AT MPV. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLK HAVING A SOMEWHAT GREATER THREAT
FOR IFR OR LOWER FOG. BEST CHANCES FOR FOG RUN 07Z-12Z.
AFTERWARD...ADDITIONAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP ON SUNDAY BUT ALL
SITES WILL BE VFR. CAN`T RULE OUT A VERY LIGHT INSTABILITY RAIN
SHOWER AT SLK/MPV BUT WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. WINDS LIGHT AND
LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT REMAIN LIGHT AROUND 5 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY...GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...EXCEPT EAST AT
PBG.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING FROM SUNDAY EVENING THRU 18Z TUES. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASED INSTABILITY AND APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY
WL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUES
AFTN/EVENING. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS WL BE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH
WL CREATE AREAS OF LOCALIZED TURBULANCE. ALSO...CHANNEL SOME WIND
GUSTS TO 30 MPH WL BE POSSIBLE ON TUES AFTN AT
MSS/BTV/PBG...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LLVL JET. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...WGH/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1028 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY WILL RETREAT
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...THEN BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
LEE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM MONDAY...
CONVECTION IS STILL DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ADVANCING SEABREEZE THIS EVENING... OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN SANDHILLS.
HOWEVER... IT IS BEGINNING TO WANE IN COVERAGE ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN REACHES THIS EVENING.... WHICH MATCHES UP WELL
WITH THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE BEST LINGERING
INSTABILITY REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.... WHERE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THE LONGEST... LATE EVENING/VERY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO RETREAT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL YIELD A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC FIRST THEN
SPREADING EASTWARD. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST (NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR NORTHEAST PIEDMONT) MAY SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT THOUGH. MEANWHILE... THE MID LEVEL S/W RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT... POSSIBLY ALLOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO/ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR IS SHOWING THIS FEATURE... COUPLED
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW... HELPING TO
DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT.
GIVEN THE TIME OF NIGHT WITH THE RAP SHOWING FURTHER STABILIZATION
ACROSS OUR AREA AND TO THE WEST... CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW OF SEEING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT (WHEN THE RAP AND HRRR
SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING). THUS... WILL JUST ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO OUR WESTERN PIEDMONT AT THIS TIME IN THE 04-11Z TIME
FRAME. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE NEAR THE MID 60S
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 70 FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IT`S WEAK SURFACE FRONT
REFLECTION WILL PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE MS VALLEY AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA...WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EJECTING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COULD POSSIBLY PROVIDE SOME
WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT IN CONCERT WITH INCREASINGLY BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN OVERSPREADS THE AREA WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. HIGHEST POPS
SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...LOWEST IN THE
NORTHEAST. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST
DESTABILIZATION OF 1000-1500 J/KG...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE TOO
LOW/ISOLATED TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE HWO.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. LOWS 68 TO 72.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR PRECIP IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OVER
THE REGION...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THE BEST
FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT GIVEN THE BETTER (ALBEIT
WEAK) SUPPORT ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...LIKELY
PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...AS WELL AS WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE RATHER LIMITED DESPITE THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS... LEADING TO DECREASED CONFIDENCE.
OVERALL...RIDGING ALOFT (ALTHOUGH RATHER FLAT) IS PROGGED TO BUILD
BACK OVER THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING TO OCCUR. NEVERTHELESS...MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES...ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS. DETAILS IN THE MID/UPPER PATTERN
BECOMES EVEN MORE UNCLEAR FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
NEVERTHELESS PRECIP CHANCES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK GIVEN THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AIRMASS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TO START THE
PERIOD WITH LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM MONDAY...
THERE AREA FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE SEABREEZE JUST SOUTH OF KFAY...AND
LIGHT WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT KFAY
IF THE SEABREEZE MAKES IN THE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
OTHERWISE..VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06-09Z...THEN STRATUS
MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. CONFIDENCE IN MVFR STRATUS...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS IFR... IS
HIGHEST AT KGSO AND KINT AFTER 09Z. STRATUS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
AT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THERE.
STRATUS WILL LIFT TUESDAY MORNING AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE DAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORMS ILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT
KGSO/KINT/KFAY.
OUTLOOK...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
321 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THOUGH A RISK OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BY MID WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...BEST INSTABILITY THRU EARLY THIS EVENING TO
RESIDE ACROSS THE ILM SC CWA...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIWAY 378.
THE HIGHER POPS OR THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...WILL ALSO BE
EXHIBITED HERE. WITH MID-LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADING THE FA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ILM NC COUNTIES...CONVECTION
WILL HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME TO DEVELOP/OCCUR AND THUS A LOWER
AFTN/EVNG POP...COMPARED TO ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA...WILL BE
ILLUSTRATED.
MID-LEVEL S/W RIDGING TO AFFECT THE FA...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
APPROACHING THE FA FROM THE WEST BY DAYBREAK MON. MODELS INDICATE
THE ATM TO FURTHER DRY ACROSS THE FA AND THUS WILL BACK OFF WITH THE
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. COULD OBSERVE SOME OVERALL CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ILM NC COUNTIES. VARIOUS MODEL TIME
HEIGHT DISPLAYS INDICATE THIS ATM DRYING TREND.
MODELS ALSO INDICATE A TEMPORARY TIGHTENING OF THE SFC PG AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE BI-STATE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...IN TURN KEEPING A NE-E SFC WIND ACTIVE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AS FOR TONITES LOWS...HAVE GONE BELOW THE
CONSENSUS OF THE VARIOUS MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S
INLAND...TO AROUND 70 OR LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WITH A WEAK FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE
AREA...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REIGN OVER THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING...BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH AS THE SYSTEM
PROPAGATES EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER IN THE DAY. WITH
A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN...SFC WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY...AND THEN
VEER MORE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO MONDAY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN SC COUNTIES WITH
DAYTIME HEATING GIVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH PWAT
VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES. AS YOU MOVE EASTWARD TO PWAT VALUES DECREASE TO
1.4/1.5 WHICH CONTINUES TO RUN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR PER LATEST TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS...THUS
HAVE KEPT TREND IN LATEST SET OF POPS FOR THIS WITH HIGHEST IN THE
WESTERN ZONES.
LATEST GUIDANCE LOOKS TO DEPICT A REVERSE TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH...AND MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WITH PWAT VALUES OF 1.6-2.0 INCHES. THOUGH THE ANTICIPATED
FRONT/REMNANTS COULD OFFER SOME LIFT ON TUESDAY...WILL ALSO NEED TO
FOCUS ON AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH FOR CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT. MODELS DO NOTE SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL CAPPING WHICH COULD
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT IS SHORT-LIVED AND SHOULD NOT INTERFERE
WITH DEVELOPMENT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
POPS...BUT OVERALL GENERAL THINKING REMAINS WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. INTO THE END OF THE
PERIOD ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO BE IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE
COAST...INCREASING TO THE UPPER 80S INLAND AND LOWER 90S IN THE
WESTERN SC COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...WITH A FEW DEGREES HIGHER OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AS A MORE
WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS RETURNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...HOT BUT UNSETTLED FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE
WEEK AS BERMUDA TYPE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBTLE TROUGHING ALOFT
COMBINE IN A RICH THETA-E ENVIRONMENT. THIS SUPPORTS TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...WIDESPREAD 90S FOR HIGHS...LOW 70S FOR
LOWS...WITH HIGH CHC POP FOR DIURNAL TSTMS EACH DAY. TSTMS WILL
LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN JUST TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ACTIVITY
THANKS TO WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ALOFT...FURTHER ENHANCING PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON CONVECTION THU/FRI THANKS TO
MID-LEVEL DRYING...BUT THIS IS A NEW SOLUTION...AND WITH THE PATTERN
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WED-FRI...WILL CONTINUE WITH INHERITED HIGH CHC
EACH DAY. BY THE WKND...RIDGING BLOSSOMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...BUT
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY LOWERED POP THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE
RIDGE...WITH TEMPS REMAINING MOSTLY UNCHANGED. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
SUNDAY IF FROPA OCCURS...BUT FOR NOW WILL EXPECT THE FRONT TO GET
HUNG UP TO THE NORTH AND KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING
DOWN CONVECTION FROM THE MOREHEAD CITY REGION ACROSS THE BI-STATE
REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST 88D TRENDS INDICATE CONVECTION HAS INCHED
CLOSER BUT REMAINS ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. AT THIS PACE...THE ILM
TERMINAL MAY EXPERIENCE A CLAP OF THUNDER WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT FOR
THE MYRTLES TO EXPERIENCE CONVECTION PRIOR TO THE DAYS INSOLATION
COMING TO AN END. LOOK FOR POSSIBLE MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE
TSHOWERS. FOR TONIGHT...VFR WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS FROM REDUCED VSBY FROM FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MONDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH ISOLATED POPS BY
LATE MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...BROAD SFC LOW PARTIALLY ENCOMPASSING THE ILM
COASTAL WATERS...IS PROGGED TO PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS FURTHER SOUTHWARD IN ITS WAKE. WILL
CONTINUE THE WINDS TRANSITIONING FROM A WNW-NNW TO NNE-ENE AS THE
SFC RIDGING FROM THE NORTHEAST WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT...BUT COULD SEE A
SOLID 15 KT TONIGHT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS FROM THE BRIEF SFC PG
TIGHTENING AND ASSOCIATED WEAK POST FRONTAL SURGE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT...WITH A FEW 4 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ILM NC
WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT. WIND DRIVEN WAVES
EXHIBITING 4 TO 6 SECOND PERIODS TO DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...AN OFFSHORE PROGRESSING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
EARLY ON MONDAY 10 TO 12 KTS TO VEER AND BECOME EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DROPPING TO A SOLID 10 KTS AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER TOWARDS THE COAST. ON TUESDAY...EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWEST BY EVENING AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH WINDS
10 TO 15 KTS. AS FOR SEAS...EXPECT 1 TO 3 FT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL
MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...PRODUCING UNIFORM
WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS EACH DAY. AS THIS HIGH SITS OFFSHORE...RETURN
FLOW WILL ENVELOP THE WATERS...WITH SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS COMMON
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A GROUND SWELL WILL SLOWLY AMPLIFY
THROUGH LATE WEEK...THE WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE DOMINATED BY 5-SEC SW
WIND WAVES...CREATING 2-4 FT SEAS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
125 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH A FRONT INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS
FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS...BUT THE
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1110 AM SUNDAY...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS
INDICATE CU/SC DECK OF CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND/OR OVERSPREAD THE
AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE 20-30 MAINLY RESULTANT WIND/SEA BREEZE
TYPE POPS THRU EARLY EVENING. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL LIE
CLOSER TO THE FRONT WITH THE SEA BREEZE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTERACTION PROVIDING LIFT. THE ILM SC COUNTIES WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED WITH THE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. NO
CHANGES TO THE MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 80S ACROSS THE ILM NC
CWA...WITH 90S ACROSS THE ILM SC CWA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................................
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP THOUGH
THE AREA TODAY AND COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY NEARER THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE AND
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH THE HIGHEST
NUMBERS EXPECTED SOUTH AND WEST. MINS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE
LOWER 70S EXCEPT A FEW UPPER 60S ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE COAST EARLY MON AS
WEAK FRONT REMAINS STALLED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST OF NEW ENGLAND CURING THE DAY WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW IN THE MORNING BECOMING EASTERLY BY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO BRIEF WEAK RIDGING.
HEIGHT RISES DURING THE DAY COMBINED WITH NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL WORK TO LIMIT CONVECTION. THERE WILL BE DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.6 TO 1.8
INCH RANGE...ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE. DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE
ABLE TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED DEEPER CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY INLAND
SC. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY INHERITED SLIGHT CHC POP EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT FOR CHC POP ACROSS INLAND SC WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS STRONGEST. HIGHS WILL END UP A LITTLE BELOW
CLIMO MON WHILE LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO.
WEAK SHORT DURATION MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR
TUE. ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE WILL OFFER SOME RESISTANCE TO UPWARD
MOTION THE SEA BREEZE AND WEAK PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO
GENERATE SOME DEEP CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN
HIGH...OVER 2 INCHES FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL PUMP PLENTY OF WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO TUE AFTERNOON. CURRENT TIMING HAS BEST PVA COINCIDENT WITH
PEAK HEATING. THUS PLAN TO MAINTAIN INHERITED CHC POP FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO TUE WITH LOWS RUNNING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED WITH PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BEING QUITE ACTIVE. PATTERN ALOFT WILL RANGE
FROM WEAK TROUGHING TO ZONAL FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE MID LEVEL
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEK WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSE TO AND EVEN EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD.
TIMING THESE IS DIFFICULT AT BEST BUT EACH WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO
ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION. PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH
POP VALUES RANGING FROM 40 TO 50 FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
REGULARLY EXCEED 90 IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING
DOWN CONVECTION FROM THE MOREHEAD CITY REGION ACROSS THE BI-STATE
REGION THIS AFTN. LATEST 88D TRENDS INDICATE CONVECTION HAS INCHED
CLOSER BUT REMAINS ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. AT THIS PACE...THE ILM
TERMINAL MAY EXPERIENCE A CLAP OF THUNDER WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT FOR
THE MYRTLES TO EXPERIENCE CONVECTION PRIOR TO THE DAYS INSOLATION
COMING TO AN END. LOOK FOR POSSIBLE MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE
TSHOWERS. FOR TONIGHT...VFR WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS FROM REDUCED VSBY FROM FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR MONDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH ISOLATED POPS BY
LATE MORNING.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR MONDAY. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1130 AM SUNDAY...BROAD SFC LOW PARTIALLY ENCOMPASSING THE
ILM COASTAL WATERS...IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS FURTHER SOUTHWARD IN ITS WAKE.
WILL CONTINUE THE WINDS TRANSITIONING FROM A WNW-NNW TO NNE-ENE AS
THE SFC RIDGING FROM THE NORTHEAST WORKS ITS WAY SW ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. COULD SEE A SOLID 15 KT TONITE
ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS FROM THE BRIEF SFC PG TIGHTENING AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK POST FRONTAL SURGE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS 2 TO 3
FT...WITH A FEW 4 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS FROM
CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.................................
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AROUND
DAYBREAK WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST TODAY AND A LITTLE MORE
EASTERLY TONIGHT. SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
SLOWLY VEER TO EASTERLY DURING MON AS HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND MOVES
OFF THE COAST. GRADIENT WILL BE SUCH THAT SPEEDS REMAIN 10 TO 15 KT
WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT. BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS BACK WEST ON TUE WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY TUE EVENING.
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS
CONTINUING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT COULD PERIODICALLY EXCEED 15
KT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. SEAS W TO 3 FT ON WED WILL BUILD TO
2 TO 4 FT THU AS SOUTHERLY SWELL STARTS TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE
PROMINENT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...DCH/RAN
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
310 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RETURN
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SUNDAY...
A WEAK/WAVY FRONTAL ZONE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...THOUGH THE TRUE AIRMASS CHANCE REMAINS TO THE NORTH ACROSS
CENTRAL VA. ALOFT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VARIOUS SMALL
DISTURBANCES WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EAST COAST. THE
FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH OVER SC TODAY AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST NOSES INTO THE AREA. WITH THE PRIMARY
AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND LOWER PW
AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT...POPS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN NEAR 70 OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND
MLCAPE MAY REACH 1000 J/KG. MOST GUIDANCE FOCUSES QPF OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND THE SPC STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE SHOWS THE MOST
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN....WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WILL BE FOCUSED. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL BE DOWN ABOUT 10-
15M FROM YESTERDAY...THOUGH LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST WILL FEEL THE
EFFECTS A LITTLE MORE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S
SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH A WEAK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SUNDAY...
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH
EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM NEW ENGLAND BEGINS TO RETREAT. MODELS
ARE FAIRLY ACTIVE OVER WESTERN NC AS PW RETURNS TO ABOVE 1.5 INCHES.
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WOULD BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS GIVEN WEAK WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AND LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT FORCING. HIGHS AGAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN THE 86-90
RANGE. LOWS 66-70.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SUNDAY...
RETURN FLOW WILL BE ONGOING WITH SUPPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL
RIDGING SHIFTING EAST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...A LITTLE MORE SO IN THE WEST...TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGHS FLIRT WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 90. A SHORT WAVE
TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH...THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL BE WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT AND SHORT
WAVE MOVE THROUGH DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY...WHICH WILL SPORT
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S.
HEADING INTO THE LATE WEEK...A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA...WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRYING AND CAPPING TO LIMIT
CONVECTION TO SOME DEGREE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE REACHING THE LOWER
90S EACH DAY...HOWEVER...AND WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. ACTIVITY WILL BE
MORE FAVORED IN THE AREAS DRIVEN BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OFF THE
EASTERN SLOPES AND IN THE EAST IN THE VICINITY OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY LEE TROFFING AND PERHAPS SOME INLAND SEA
BREEZE PENETRATION. MINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM SUNDAY...
THE LAST REMAINING STORMS HAVE DIED OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH
WITH A CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS MAY STILL POP UP. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING...THOUGH THE SPOTTY NATURE OF STORMS LAST EVENING MAE
IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHICH SITES WILL BE MOST ADVERSELY IMPACTED.
IFR CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AT KFAY...AMD RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW IFR STRATUS DEVELOPING AT KRDU AND KRWI BY AS EARLY
AS 08Z. CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS IS LOWER AT KGSO AND KINT WHERE
RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD JUST PRIOR TO 12Z.
AS STRATUS LIFTS AND SCATTERS LATE THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL REDEVELOP AND ARE...FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE SETTLE SOUTH
OVER SC WILL GIVE WAY TO A LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WIND...WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM: AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN DIURNAL CONVECTION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MIDWEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS EACH MORNING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...ELLIS/BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
140 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS..A SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE RETURNS
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 PM SATURDAY...
A BUSY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION... MUCH OF IT QUITE STRONG BUT GENERALLY JUST BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW OVER
CENTRAL NC WITH A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE RUNNING TO ITS EAST AND
WEST... WHILE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH
CENTRAL VA. A VERY WARM/MOIST (PW 1.5-2.0 IN.) AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS PERSISTS OVER NC WITH MLCAPE STILL AT 1500-2000 J/KG...
ALTHOUGH CINH HAS GROWN QUICKLY IN RECENT HOURS... AND LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE LOWERED IN PART BY THE NUMEROUS STORMS AND MULTIPLE
OUTFLOWS. SEVERAL OF THE STORMS NEAR THE WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE
EXHIBITED WEAK BUT DEEP ROTATION EARLIER THIS EVENING AS THEY FED ON
THIS VORTICITY... HOWEVER THIS TOO HAS WANED. THE RECENT RAP MODEL
RUN SHOWS STEADY MID LEVEL DRYING OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE NW CWA
WITH PW FALLING NEAR 1.2 IN... ALTHOUGH VALUES HOLD UP IN THE ERN/SE
CWA WITH CONTINUED TALL SKINNY MARGINAL CAPE AND WEAK MBE MOVEMENT
EXPECTED. SO EVEN AFTER THE NUMEROUS STORMS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE CWA SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT... ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED STORMS OR STORM CLUSTERS FROM THE TRIANGLE EASTWARD CANNOT
BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT... AND A FEW OF THESE COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS DUE TO THEIR SLOW MOVEMENT. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS TO FORM ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING AND MOIST GROUND WILL FOSTER
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT... A SCENARIO CORROBORATED BY LATEST HRRR.
LOWS 68-73... FOLLOWING THE LATEST GLAMP GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED
TRENDS. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...
SURFACE BOUNDARY/TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
RIDGES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. ALOFT...NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL FOR ONE LAST PERIOD...WITH CENTRAL NC REMAINING POISED TO
SEE ADDITIONALLY SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
ASSOCIATED DPVA COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER/STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL NELY FLOW WILL COOL THINGS OFF A BIT...WITH
12Z LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SUNDAY MORNING OF 1395M A GOOD 10 METERS
BELOW TYPICAL LATE JUNE THICKNESS VALUES. HIGHS RANGING MID 80S
NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTH.
HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD IN PLACE BEFORE SUCCUMBING TO RETURN FLOW DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MORNING STRATUS LATE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON ITS BACK SIDE WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW. THEREFORE...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY...MOST NOTICEABLY
ACROSS THE WEST WITHIN THE BEST RETURN FLOW. NEVERTHELESS...COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST AS A MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
PRECIP CHANCES...MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE...WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
EVEN MORE ON TUESDAY AND THEN PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW THAT
SETS UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. IN ADDITION...FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY (THUS INCREASING DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE) AS LARGE SCALE TROUGHING MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MS
RIVER VALLEY. SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL THEN PROGRESS EAST OVER THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
PRECIP. RIDGING ALOFT (ALTHOUGH RATHER FLAT) WILL BUILD BACK OVER
THE AREA LATE INTO THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING TO OCCUR. NEVERTHELESS...MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES...ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S TO START THE PERIOD WITH LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM SUNDAY...
THE LAST REMAINING STORMS HAVE DIED OFF EARLY THIS MORNING...THOUGH
WITH A CONTINUED HUMID AIRMASS...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS MAY STILL POP UP. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING...THOUGH THE SPOTTY NATURE OF STORMS LAST EVENING MAE
IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHICH SITES WILL BE MOST ADVERSELY IMPACTED.
IFR CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AT KFAY...AMD RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW IFR STRATUS DEVELOPING AT KRDU AND KRWI BY AS EARLY
AS 08Z. CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS IS LOWER AT KGSO AND KINT WHERE
RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD JUST PRIOR TO 12Z.
AS STRATUS LIFTS AND SCATTERS LATE THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL REDEVELOP AND ARE...FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE SETTLE SOUTH
OVER SC WILL GIVE WAY TO A LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WIND...WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM: AFTER A RELATIVE LULL IN DIURNAL CONVECTION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MIDWEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS EACH MORNING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...ELLIS/BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
925 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
PRECIP HAS FOR THE MOST PART SHIFTED EAST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
THE REMAINING FEW SHOWERS WERE LOCATED ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ACROSS THE
REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SKIES WERE CLEARING OUT WITH LIGHT
WINDS OBSERVED. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST LOCAL IN-HOUSE
MODEL AND THE HRRR CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN COLORADO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE REGION. THUS...WILL NOT CARRY POPS AFTER 06Z.
THE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
HOWEVER CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO BE POSSIBLE AFTER
THE RECENT RAINS. HAVE EXTENDED THE FOG POTENTIAL A BIT FURTHER
WEST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LOOK TO
BE COOLER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS AND HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW
TWEAKS FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 63 89 67 88 / 10 10 20 30
FSM 65 89 67 90 / 20 10 20 30
MLC 64 89 68 89 / 10 10 20 30
BVO 61 88 64 86 / 10 10 20 30
FYV 60 85 61 85 / 20 10 20 30
BYV 61 85 61 86 / 20 10 20 30
MKO 62 88 66 87 / 10 10 20 30
MIO 61 86 64 86 / 10 10 20 30
F10 63 88 67 87 / 10 10 20 30
HHW 66 89 69 90 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
AVIATION.....18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
201 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2014
IT LOOKS LIKE THE SEVERE THREAT IS TAPERING OFF SO HAVE ALLOWED
THE SVR TSTM WATCH TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS MODELS INDICATED ABUNDANT MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS
OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2014
A BROAD NORTH/SOUTH PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS DOMINATES THE SURFACE MAP THIS
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. A WEAK COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
FROM THIS LOW THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING.
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA ARE IN THE MID 60S...WHILE DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT DROP INTO THE MID 40S. ONLY VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
ARE DISCERNABLE IN THE MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY. SOME WEAK CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND EASTERN MONTANA BUT IR IMAGERY INDICATES
MINIMAL VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. A WEAKER SURFACE LOW RESIDES OVER
EASTERN COLORADO...SUPPORTING A MOSTLY STATIONARY EAST-WEST WARM
FRONT BOUNDARY ALONG THE NEBRASKA SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. LITTLE OR NO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS TAKEN PLACE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. MORNING
SOUNDINGS AT BOTH UNR AND LBF INDICATE A STRONG CAP BELOW 700 MB
WITH A DRY LAYER JUST OFF THE SURFACE AND THEN UNSTABLE LAPS RATES
AT MID LEVELS. TRIGGER TEMPERATURES AT BOTH LOCATIONS ARE IN THE MID
80S.
THIS EVENING...THE KEY FOR LOCATING THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING WILL BE THE LOCATION OF THE VERY DIFFUSE BOUNDARY COINCIDING
WITH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TROUGH. THE HRRR GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF SOUTH DAKOTA TO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS WELL AS AN AREA OF POST FRONTAL STORMS OVER
NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...LARGE
CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG AND ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT MOST OF THE
ACTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL TAKE PLACE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE BLKHLS
REGION WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY
ALONG OR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY 04Z. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND AND A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SHALLOW COOL AIR IN WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING MOSTLY SOUTH OF US HWY 212
RESULTING IN A STRATIFORM PRECIP EVENT FOR AREAS STRETCHING FROM
AROUND THE BLKLHS TO THE MORVR. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S.
SUNDAY...OVERCAST SKIES AND STRATIFORM PRECIP SHOULD BE ONGOING
BEFORE SUN RISE IN NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLKHLS AREA AND SPREAD
TO THE MORVR BEFORE NOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT
THESE SHOULD BE PRETTY WEAK. A MODERATE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LIGHT RAIN. THE LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TAPERING OFF BY 00Z AS THE COOL AIRMASS PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...ONLY IN THE MID
60S TO UPPER 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT...DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION AND SOME LINGERING CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW THE LOWER 50S IN
MOST PLACES...UPPER 40S IN NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLKHLS.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY EXPAND
EASTWARD MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA/NORTHWEST US. THE
RESULT WILL BE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD
TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING TSRA AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS GIVEN SLOWLY BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SUBSEQUENT SLIGHTLY HIGHER MLCIN VALUES.
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...BUT BOTH HINT AT POSSIBLE BACK
DOOR COOL FRONTS TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY FOR THE SD PLAINS GIVEN
PROXIMITY OF UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. DIDN/T DEVIATE MUCH FROM
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 AM MDT SUN JUN 22 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTOMRS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...
RESULTING IN RATHER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WY/WESTERN SD. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL CAUSE MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...CARPENTER
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...MLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1246 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014/
UPDATE...
MIDMORNING GOES IR IMAGERY SHOWED A COUPLE OF MCS THIS MORNING...
OVER EASTER NE AND IA AND ANOTHER OVER NORTH TX. NEITHER MCS WAS
UPSTREAM OF THE MIDSOUTH...AND THE TX MCS HAD REARWARD PROPAGATION
COMPONENT. NEARER TO THE MIDSOUTH...SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUD COOLING
WAS NOTED ON IR OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH MS...PERHAPS AN INDICATION OF
ENHANCED MIDLEVEL LIFT FROM A WEAK 250MB JET STREAK OVER THE
ARKLAMISS REGION.
TODAY/S RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MIDSOUTH APPEAR A LITTLE MORE LIMITED
THAN SATURDAY...GIVEN THE LACK OF A DISTINCT MCS OR MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF. 13Z HRRR MODEL DEPICTED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST. HOWEVER...12Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNCAPPED BY 18Z...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE
IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AREAWIDE.
IN THE ABSENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF OR MCV...MESOSCALE PROCESSES
/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS/ WILL
LIKELY DETERMINE WHERE AND IF THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE AND SUBSEQUENTLY
EVOLVE.
MOST RECENT FORECAST UPDATED INCLUDED MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING
OF POPS AND TO EDGE AFTERNOON TEMPS UP A BIT NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MEMPHIS METRO.
PWB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE LONGEST DAY OF THE YEAR HAS COME TO AN END AND ITS ANOTHER
QUIET SUMMER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE UPPER 60S IN THE COOLEST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES AREA WIDE. PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED...AND VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE IN
ALCORN COUNTY MISSISSIPPI...BUT THAT IS THE EXCEPTION. MOST AREAS
ARE ONLY EXPERIENCING SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY IF ANY. WILL
MONITOR ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE
NEED FOR ANY KIND OF ADVISORY.
WE WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS NUMEROUS STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE WINDS...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF WET MICROBURSTS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORMS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE
GFS SHOWS A FAIRLY DECENT VORT MAX TRACKING OUT OF SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS
SOME INDICATION ON SATELLITE OF THIS FEATURE IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
RIGHT NOW. THIS MAY ENHANCE STORMS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART WE ARE NOT TARGETING ANY SPECIFIC PORTION OF THE
MIDSOUTH FOR ENHANCED COVERAGE OR STRENGTH OF STORMS. DEW POINTS
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S WILL HELP TO PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT FEATURING CAPE VALUES INTO THE 2500-3000 J/KG RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON AND LI`S BELOW -7C. MOISTURE LEVELS ALOFT ARE ALSO
HIGH...BOTH LITTLE ROCK AND NASHVILLE AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS HAD PW
VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY.
STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...LIKELY DRIFTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST SO
ISOLATED FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE.
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
ONCE AGAIN...NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED...BUT ANY STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO BECOME STRONG WITH OUR CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WIND
IS THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE KEPT DOWN A
BIT ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS MAY EVEN REMAIN IN THE
LOW 80S IF THUNDERS STORMS AND CLOUDS ARE NUMEROUS.
AFTER MIDWEEK...AS THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH A
WEAK RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO REASSERT ITS
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT LESS RAIN THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
PERFECT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE ECMWF FEATURES A
STRONGER RIDGE CENTERED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN AN EVEN WARMER AND DRIER FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR NOW WILL PLAY THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD...HOLDING ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS ALREADY FIRED UP IN THE SOUTHERNMOST
PORTION OF THE CWA WITH CAPE VALUES ALREADY EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG AT
ALL SITES ACCORDING TO SPC MESOANALYSIS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
NORTHERN MS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS TODAY AS
500MB HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE THE GREATEST THERE. NONETHELESS...HAVE
INCLUDED A VCTS AT ALL SITES UNTIL AFTER SUNSET TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TODAYS CONVECTION. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY
TO ACCOUNT FOR STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE
SITES.
ZDM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1046 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
MIDMORNING GOES IR IMAGERY SHOWED A COUPLE OF MCS THIS MORNING...
OVER EASTER NE AND IA AND ANOTHER OVER NORTH TX. NEITHER MCS WAS
UPSTREAM OF THE MIDSOUTH...AND THE TX MCS HAD REARWARD PROPAGATION
COMPONENT. NEARER TO THE MIDSOUTH...SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUD COOLING
WAS NOTED ON IR OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH MS...PERHAPS AN INDICATION OF
ENHANCED MIDLEVEL LIFT FROM A WEAK 250MB JET STREAK OVER THE
ARKLAMISS REGION.
TODAY/S RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MIDSOUTH APPEAR A LITTLE MORE LIMITED
THAN SATURDAY...GIVEN THE LACK OF A DISTINCT MCS OR MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF. 13Z HRRR MODEL DEPICTED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST. HOWEVER...12Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNCAPPED BY 18Z...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE
IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AREAWIDE.
IN THE ABSENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF OR MCV...MESOSCALE PROCESSES
/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS/ WILL
LIKELY DETERMINE WHERE AND IF THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE AND SUBSEQUENTLY
EVOLVE.
MOST RECENT FORECAST UPDATED INCLUDED MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING
OF POPS AND TO EDGE AFTERNOON TEMPS UP A BIT NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MEMPHIS METRO.
PWB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE LONGEST DAY OF THE YEAR HAS COME TO AN END AND ITS ANOTHER
QUIET SUMMER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE UPPER 60S IN THE COOLEST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES AREA WIDE. PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED...AND VISIBILITY HAS DROPPED AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE IN
ALCORN COUNTY MISSISSIPPI...BUT THAT IS THE EXCEPTION. MOST AREAS
ARE ONLY EXPERIENCING SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY IF ANY. WILL
MONITOR ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE
NEED FOR ANY KIND OF ADVISORY.
WE WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS NUMEROUS STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE WINDS...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF WET MICROBURSTS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORMS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE
GFS SHOWS A FAIRLY DECENT VORT MAX TRACKING OUT OF SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON...AND THERE IS
SOME INDICATION ON SATELLITE OF THIS FEATURE IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
RIGHT NOW. THIS MAY ENHANCE STORMS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART WE ARE NOT TARGETING ANY SPECIFIC PORTION OF THE
MIDSOUTH FOR ENHANCED COVERAGE OR STRENGTH OF STORMS. DEW POINTS
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S WILL HELP TO PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT FEATURING CAPE VALUES INTO THE 2500-3000 J/KG RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON AND LI`S BELOW -7C. MOISTURE LEVELS ALOFT ARE ALSO
HIGH...BOTH LITTLE ROCK AND NASHVILLE AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS HAD PW
VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY.
STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW...LIKELY DRIFTING EAST TO SOUTHEAST SO
ISOLATED FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE.
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
ONCE AGAIN...NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED...BUT ANY STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO BECOME STRONG WITH OUR CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WIND
IS THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE KEPT DOWN A
BIT ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS MAY EVEN REMAIN IN THE
LOW 80S IF THUNDERS STORMS AND CLOUDS ARE NUMEROUS.
AFTER MIDWEEK...AS THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH A
WEAK RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO REASSERT ITS
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT LESS RAIN THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
PERFECT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. THE ECMWF FEATURES A
STRONGER RIDGE CENTERED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN AN EVEN WARMER AND DRIER FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR NOW WILL PLAY THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD...HOLDING ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
MAINLY FROM THE WEST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1028 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.UPDATE...
An outflow boundary continues to move southwest across the
Concho Valley and North Edwards Plateau late this evening.
Isolated thunderstorms that developed along this boundary earlier
this evening have dissipated with the loss of heating. The main
concern for the rest of tonight will be the potential for showers
and thunderstorms to move in from the west towards daybreak.
Thunderstorms are currently affecting portions of eastern New
Mexico, with the strongest convection located across southeast
New Mexico north of Carlsbad.
Uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and weather storms
will organize into a southeast propagating MCS overnight. The Texas
Tech WRF is the most aggressive model and brings a weakening band
of convection into western sections after 4 AM, with activity
dissipating across central sections through early morning. The
latest NAM and HRRR show most of the convection remaining west of
the forecast area. Given the uncertainty, kept chance POPs in the
forecast generally west of a Haskell to Sonora line overnight and
lowered POPs to slight chance elsewhere. Also tweaked temps and
dewpoints to account for trends.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals this evening into the early
morning hours. Stratus will develop along the I-10 corridor during
the morning hours Tuesday, going with MVFR CIGS at the KSOA and KJCT
terminals after 10Z Tuesday. VFR conditions will return by 15Z
Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible around the KSJT
terminal through mid evening and carrying VCTS through 03Z. A
complex or two of storms will develop well west of the terminals
later tonight and some of this activity may make it east into West
Central Texas by Tuesday morning. Confidence is not high enough to
put in the terminals and will watch radar and satellite trends this
evening.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)
Showers and thunderstorms moved out of the area early this
afternoon, leaving partly to mostly cloudy skies and a very humid
air mass along with leftover outflow boundaries from the overnight
into early morning thunderstorms. Aloft, a shortwave trough is
moving east into New Mexico this afternoon helping to set off
thunderstorms across the mountains of New Mexico. Thunderstorms
were also developing across the mountains near and west of the Big
Bend area in Texas. A few isolated thunderstorms could develop
by late this afternoon or evening along some of the previously
mentioned boundaries.
For tonight, expect another cluster of thunderstorms to get
organized to our west or northwest and move into our area
overnight. Thunderstorms are already developing across the
mountains of New Mexico, and upscale growth into a cluster of
thunderstorms is expected as the shortwave moving into the area
approaches. Several models indicate an MCS moving east through the
Permian Basin overnight, and into our area by early tomorrow
morning. Timing the arrival of these thunderstorms is difficult,
but expect the bulk of the activity to be after midnight rather
than before. Locally heavy rainfall, and dangerous lightning would
be the primary concerns with these thunderstorms.
Additional thunderstorm activity is possible tomorrow afternoon,
especially if the atmosphere can destabilize during the afternoon
hours. The favored area for redevelopment tomorrow appears to be
northwest of the area near the Texas panhandle region where
another approaching shortwave will interact with persistent moist
upslope flow.
Temperatures will remain near normal with lows near 70 tonight,
highs around 90 tomorrow.
20
LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Weak northwest flow aloft will continue over our area Tuesday night
and Wednesday. Could have a leftover disturbance (possibly a MCV)
over our eastern counties Tuesday evening and early Tuesday night.
The NAM brings a weak upper level disturbance southeast across the
TX Panhandle and toward our far northern counties by early
Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms would be possible
with both of these features. With this in mind, carrying 30 PoPs
across our eastern and far northern counties Tuesday night, with
20 PoPs elsewhere. Have a lingering low PoP for the eastern part
of our area on Wednesday, which will be on the eastern periphery
of the upper level high.
On Thursday and Friday, the upper high will remain positioned
over Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest, with an eastward
extension to near the Big Bend region. An upper shear axis is
progged to set up to the east of our area. Cannot rule out a low
possibility of showers/thunderstorms in some of our northern or
eastern counties Thursday and Friday. However, with lack of
confidence in placement of weak disturbances aloft or surface
boundaries, prefer to leave PoPs out for now.
For the weekend into the first part of next week, the 12Z GFS and
ECMWF are in better agreement in gradually building the heights
aloft over our area. While specific differences still exist, both
models show an overall shift with the upper high to the north
across the Southwestern states, while expanding it to the east
into Texas and the Southern Plains. This would effectively shut
off rain chances for our area, and lead to a warming trend in
temperatures. However, with fairly moist ground conditions and
evapotranspirative effects, along with south-southeasterly low-
level flow keeping an influx of Gulf moisture into our area,
believe the warming trend will be tempered. In addition, the GFS
keeps the low-level thermal ridge to our west, with only a limited
eastward expansion. With these indications, going with highs below
the GFS MOS guidance for our area.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 71 90 72 92 72 / 20 40 20 20 10
San Angelo 70 90 71 92 72 / 30 30 20 10 5
Junction 71 89 71 91 72 / 20 20 20 20 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
110 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.DISCUSSION...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
REGIONAL ATMOSPHERE IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF
METRO TERMINALS. RECENT HIGH OVERCAST HAS LIMITED OVERALL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...RETARDING HEATING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON CLOUD BREAKS WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPERATURES TO HIT OR
EXCEED 90F...INCREASING THE PROBABILITY FOR RETURNING -TSRA. DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR WILL WIN OUT THROUGH MID TO LATE PERIOD ...MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION PROBS BECOMING
TO LOW TO MENTION VICINITY. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014/
UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
AT 9 AM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SW LOUISIANA AND LOW
PRESSURE WAS OVER WESTERN KANSAS. VIS SATELLITE SHOWED EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE STATE WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
OVER SE TX. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES AROUND 1.70 INCHES...
CONVECTIVE TEMPS BETWEEN 86 AND 90 DEGREES...NO CAPPING AND WITH A
LAYER OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 800 MB AND 600 MB. AT 850 MB...A SWATH OF
DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS EXTENDING FROM DODGE
CITY KANSAS TO NORTHERN MEXICO. AN 850 MB RIDGE WAS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND EXTENDED NORTH INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. AT 700
MB...DEEPER MSTR AND A WEAK 700 MB TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM NE
TEXAS TO THE BIG BEND. AT 250 MB...A WEAK HIGH WAS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO WITH A SPEED MAX OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. A WEAK S/WV
EXTENDED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO NE TEXAS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW SE TX IN A WEAK LFQ THIS AFTN AND
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z 250 MB ANALYSIS. CONSIDERING THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SPEED MAX...A WEAK SPLIT IN THE UPPER JET...
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK PVA...FEEL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
BE INCREASING THIS AFTN. THE RAP 13 AND HRRR SHOW THE BEST
POTENTIAL OVER THE NE ZONES THIS AFTN SO HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
NE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AS STORM MOTION WILL BE ON THE SLOW SIDE. CLOUDS WILL
WREAK HAVOC WITH MAX TEMPS BUT ANY BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM QUICKLY. LEFT TEMP FCST AS IS. OVERALL...ONLY
MINOR CHANGES AS PREV FCST HAD THINGS WELL IN HAND. 43
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION.
AVIATION...
SEEING A BAND OF SHRA APPROACHING NW AREAS OF SE TX THIS MORNING
WHICH WILL AFFECT CLL 12-14Z. BY MID MORNING EXPECT TO SEE SCT
SHRA ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSRA
AROUND THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SEA
BREEZE. AMPLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. 33
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014/
DISCUSSION...
TX AREA RADAR SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER N TX
WHICH MAY BE THE RESULT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND OLD MCV THAT IS
SHEARING OUT OVER THE AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS HELD TEMPS IN THE MID
70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SO NOT QUITE AS COOL AS
YESTERDAY. BASED ON 00Z SOUNDINGS LCH AND CRP ARE SHOWING PRECIP
WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES RESPECTIVELY. THINK PRECIP WATER
VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO 1.7 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
THE 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS 589/590 DM HEIGHTS ALONG THE NW GULF
COAST SO THINK RIDGE IS MOVING MORE INTO THE GULF TOWARDS THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. HEIGHTS HAVE COME DOWN SOME WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT MORE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY ESPECIALLY WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE. FORECAST WILL GO WITH MAINLY 30/40 POPS TODAY. LOOKING
AT STORM TOTAL ACCUM RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY...FEW STRONGER STORMS
COULD EASILY DROP 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING WITH THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS FROM OUTFLOWS.
BY MONDAY BROAD TROUGHING BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER TX AND
REALLY NO HINT OF ANY RIDGING. MODELS OUTPUT MEAGER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND KEEP POPS LOW SO WILL ONLY GO WITH 20/30 POPS. IT
LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WATER VALUES MAY DROP CLOSER TO 1.5 INCHES ON
MONDAY BEFORE SURGING BACK UP ON TUE/WED. TUE LOOK FOR HIGHER
MOISTURE VALUES AND TROUGHING BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED. SHORTWAVE
NOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY ACROSS THE S ROCKIES
INTO THE S PLAINS BY THIS TIME. THIS MAY HELP BRING HEIGHTS DOWN
BELOW 588 DM AT 500MB. PRECIP WATER VALUES MAY BE APPROACHING 2
INCHES BY WED PER NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. DECIDED TO GO A BIT HIGHER
WITH POPS ON TUE INTO WED. WED LOOKS TO BE MORE WET BUT WILL KEEP
POPS AT 50 FOR NOW. QUITE POSSIBLE TO HAVE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK TO BE WED/THUR/FRI WITH BROAD TROUGHING
ALOFT AND PRECIP WATER VALUES NEAR 1.9 TO 2 INCHES EACH DAY. IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EACH DAY.
WITH THAT MUCH MOISTURE...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
URBAN AREAS COULD SEE STREET FLOODING AS A RESULT. BAYOUS COULD
RESPOND WITH RAPID RISES AS WELL. IMPACTS COULD BE MADE WORSE BY
ANY TRAINING STORMS BUT TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THOSE KINDS OF
DETAILS JUST YET.
OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IMPACTED BY CLOUD COVER AND
CONVECTION. STILL SUMMER TIME SO IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH TO REACH
LOW 90S FOR MAX TEMPS. THIS ALSO MEANS CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE
REACHED AND TRIGGER CONVECTION. FORECAST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
90-92F RANGE BUT COULD SEE UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS SHOULD SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOP. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 70S LOOK
ON TRACK AS WELL ESPECIALLY WITH ANY RAIN COOLED AIR THAT
DEVELOPS. STILL NOT BAD HAVING TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF
JUNE. 39
&&
MARINE...
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL APPROACH SCEC CRITERIA WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY STAY JUST BELOW. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE 15 TO 20 KT
ONSHORE WINDS OFFSHORE. BY MID-WEEK WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER
AND SEAS WILL BUILD. BUMPED WINDS AND SEAS WED-FRI TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT GFS...AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK
OFFSHORE. 33
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 91 76 90 74 / 20 20 20 40 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 92 77 90 75 / 20 20 20 40 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 88 80 87 80 / 10 20 20 30 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. MVFR CIGS OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INCLUDING KDRT WILL RISE
TO VFR BY 20Z. OTHERWISE...VFR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
AROUND 06Z...SPREADING TO ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER HILL COUNTRY TERRAIN AND FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO ELSEWHERE MONDAY MORNING. CIGS RISE TO VFR LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. S TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WILL DECREASE TO 10
KTS OR LESS TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS MONDAY. OCNL
GUSTS TO 22 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014/
AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOW TOP SHOWERS MOVING E-NE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. ANY OF THE TERMINAL SITES MIGHT SEE
A PASSING SHOWER BUT IMPACTS WILL LIMITED TO MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
1500-2500 FEET. MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE LOWER CLOUDS LIFTING AND BREAKING UP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
16Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CHANCE REMAINS LOW FOR ANY ONE TO PASS ACROSS
TERMINALS SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL
INVERSION OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN ALONG THE I
35 CORRIDOR THEN SPREAD WEST. A LIGHT TO MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO MAINTAIN AND SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW AT SPEEDS UNDER 20 KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A WEAK SHEAR AXIS IS DRAPED ALONG AND NW OF I-35 EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS AXIS AND IS
DEPICTED FAIRLY WELL BY THE RECENT RUC RUNS. THE SHEAR AXIS IS
EXPECTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS TO SHIFT EAST AND POSSIBLY PUSH THE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND PWAT VALUES INTO EASTERN COUNTIES LATE
TODAY WHILE MID LEVEL STABILITY BUILDS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES. THE INCREASING STABILITY IS SUGGESTED TO BE OVER A
SHORT PERIOD... LASTING THROUGH LATE MONDAY. WITH REDUCED CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED THE MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF TODAY SHOULD
REBOUND 2-4 DEGREES WARMER FOR MONDAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A SMALL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND POSSIBLY SEND A WEAKENING COMPLEX
OF STORMS INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH NORTHERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THIS PERIOD...SOME MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE CANADIAN...DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
CENTRAL TX AND AMPLIFY RAIN CHANCES INTO A POSSIBLE FLOOD PATTERN.
A MORE CONSERVATIVE BLEND OF THE DRIER GFS AND WETTER ECMWF IS
PREFERRED FOR FORECAST CONSISTENCY...BUT WILL NOTE THAT THE
BROADER WEAKNESS OVER TX IS TYPICAL FOR JUNE HEAVY RAIN EVENTS.
BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS AN ENHANCEMENT OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS PROBABLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS EVEN THE DRIER GFS KEEPS A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS OVER CENTRAL TX THROUGH AS LATE AS THURSDAY.
THE CONSENSUS OF WETTER AND DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST CONTINUES TO KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 74 92 74 90 / 30 10 10 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 90 73 93 73 90 / 30 10 10 20 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 93 73 90 / 20 10 10 10 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 87 72 91 72 88 / 20 - 20 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 91 74 96 75 94 / 10 - 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 73 92 73 90 / 20 10 20 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 73 93 73 93 / 20 10 10 10 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 74 92 73 90 / 20 10 10 20 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 91 76 93 75 90 / 30 10 20 20 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 90 76 93 75 90 / 20 10 10 10 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 92 75 94 75 92 / 20 10 10 10 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1030 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AT 9 AM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SW LOUISIANA AND LOW
PRESSURE WAS OVER WESTERN KANSAS. VIS SATELLITE SHOWED EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE STATE WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
OVER SE TX. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES AROUND 1.70 INCHES...
CONVECTIVE TEMPS BETWEEN 86 AND 90 DEGREES...NO CAPPING AND WITH A
LAYER OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 800 MB AND 600 MB. AT 850 MB...A SWATH OF
DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS EXTENDING FROM DODGE
CITY KANSAS TO NORTHERN MEXICO. AN 850 MB RIDGE WAS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND EXTENDED NORTH INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. AT 700
MB...DEEPER MSTR AND A WEAK 700 MB TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM NE
TEXAS TO THE BIG BEND. AT 250 MB...A WEAK HIGH WAS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO WITH A SPEED MAX OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. A WEAK S/WV
EXTENDED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO NE TEXAS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW SE TX IN A WEAK LFQ THIS AFTN AND
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z 250 MB ANALYSIS. CONSIDERING THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SPEED MAX...A WEAK SPLIT IN THE UPPER JET...
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK PVA...FEEL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL
BE INCREASING THIS AFTN. THE RAP 13 AND HRRR SHOW THE BEST
POTENTIAL OVER THE NE ZONES THIS AFTN SO HAVE RAISED POPS OVER THE
NE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AS STORM MOTION WILL BE ON THE SLOW SIDE. CLOUDS WILL
WREAK HAVOC WITH MAX TEMPS BUT ANY BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM QUICKLY. LEFT TEMP FCST AS IS. OVERALL...ONLY
MINOR CHANGES AS PREV FCST HAD THINGS WELL IN HAND. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION.
AVIATION...
SEEING A BAND OF SHRA APPROACHING NW AREAS OF SE TX THIS MORNING
WHICH WILL AFFECT CLL 12-14Z. BY MID MORNING EXPECT TO SEE SCT
SHRA ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSRA
AROUND THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SEA
BREEZE. AMPLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. 33
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014/
DISCUSSION...
TX AREA RADAR SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER N TX
WHICH MAY BE THE RESULT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND OLD MCV THAT IS
SHEARING OUT OVER THE AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS HELD TEMPS IN THE MID
70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SO NOT QUITE AS COOL AS
YESTERDAY. BASED ON 00Z SOUNDINGS LCH AND CRP ARE SHOWING PRECIP
WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES RESPECTIVELY. THINK PRECIP WATER
VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO 1.7 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
THE 00Z 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS 589/590 DM HEIGHTS ALONG THE NW GULF
COAST SO THINK RIDGE IS MOVING MORE INTO THE GULF TOWARDS THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE. HEIGHTS HAVE COME DOWN SOME WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT MORE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY ESPECIALLY WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE. FORECAST WILL GO WITH MAINLY 30/40 POPS TODAY. LOOKING
AT STORM TOTAL ACCUM RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY...FEW STRONGER STORMS
COULD EASILY DROP 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING WITH THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS FROM OUTFLOWS.
BY MONDAY BROAD TROUGHING BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER TX AND
REALLY NO HINT OF ANY RIDGING. MODELS OUTPUT MEAGER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND KEEP POPS LOW SO WILL ONLY GO WITH 20/30 POPS. IT
LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WATER VALUES MAY DROP CLOSER TO 1.5 INCHES ON
MONDAY BEFORE SURGING BACK UP ON TUE/WED. TUE LOOK FOR HIGHER
MOISTURE VALUES AND TROUGHING BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED. SHORTWAVE
NOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL HAVE MADE ITS WAY ACROSS THE S ROCKIES
INTO THE S PLAINS BY THIS TIME. THIS MAY HELP BRING HEIGHTS DOWN
BELOW 588 DM AT 500MB. PRECIP WATER VALUES MAY BE APPROACHING 2
INCHES BY WED PER NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. DECIDED TO GO A BIT HIGHER
WITH POPS ON TUE INTO WED. WED LOOKS TO BE MORE WET BUT WILL KEEP
POPS AT 50 FOR NOW. QUITE POSSIBLE TO HAVE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK TO BE WED/THUR/FRI WITH BROAD TROUGHING
ALOFT AND PRECIP WATER VALUES NEAR 1.9 TO 2 INCHES EACH DAY. IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EACH DAY.
WITH THAT MUCH MOISTURE...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
URBAN AREAS COULD SEE STREET FLOODING AS A RESULT. BAYOUS COULD
RESPOND WITH RAPID RISES AS WELL. IMPACTS COULD BE MADE WORSE BY
ANY TRAINING STORMS BUT TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THOSE KINDS OF
DETAILS JUST YET.
OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE IMPACTED BY CLOUD COVER AND
CONVECTION. STILL SUMMER TIME SO IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH TO REACH
LOW 90S FOR MAX TEMPS. THIS ALSO MEANS CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE
REACHED AND TRIGGER CONVECTION. FORECAST WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
90-92F RANGE BUT COULD SEE UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS SHOULD SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOP. LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 70S LOOK
ON TRACK AS WELL ESPECIALLY WITH ANY RAIN COOLED AIR THAT
DEVELOPS. STILL NOT BAD HAVING TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF
JUNE.
39
MARINE...
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL APPROACH SCEC CRITERIA WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY STAY JUST BELOW. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE 15 TO 20 KT
ONSHORE WINDS OFFSHORE. BY MID-WEEK WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER
AND SEAS WILL BUILD. BUMPED WINDS AND SEAS WED-FRI TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT GFS...AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK
OFFSHORE. 33
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 90 75 91 76 90 / 40 20 20 20 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 90 76 92 77 90 / 40 20 20 20 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 80 88 80 87 / 20 10 20 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
643 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOW TOP SHOWERS MOVING E-NE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. ANY OF THE TERMINAL SITES MIGHT SEE
A PASSING SHOWER BUT IMPACTS WILL LIMITED TO MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
1500-2500 FEET. MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE LOWER CLOUDS LIFTING AND BREAKING UP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
16Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CHANCE REMAINS LOW FOR ANY ONE TO PASS ACROSS
TERMINALS SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL
INVERSION OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN ALONG THE I
35 CORRIDOR THEN SPREAD WEST. A LIGHT TO MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO MAINTAIN AND SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW AT SPEEDS UNDER 20 KNOTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A WEAK SHEAR AXIS IS DRAPED ALONG AND NW OF I-35 EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS AXIS AND IS
DEPICTED FAIRLY WELL BY THE RECENT RUC RUNS. THE SHEAR AXIS IS
EXPECTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS TO SHIFT EAST AND POSSIBLY PUSH THE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND PWAT VALUES INTO EASTERN COUNTIES LATE
TODAY WHILE MID LEVEL STABILITY BUILDS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES. THE INCREASING STABILITY IS SUGGESTED TO BE OVER A
SHORT PERIOD... LASTING THROUGH LATE MONDAY. WITH REDUCED CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED THE MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF TODAY SHOULD
REBOUND 2-4 DEGREES WARMER FOR MONDAY.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A SMALL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND POSSIBLY SEND A WEAKENING COMPLEX
OF STORMS INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH NORTHERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THIS PERIOD...SOME MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE CANADIAN...DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
CENTRAL TX AND AMPLIFY RAIN CHANCES INTO A POSSIBLE FLOOD PATTERN.
A MORE CONSERVATIVE BLEND OF THE DRIER GFS AND WETTER ECMWF IS
PREFERRED FOR FORECAST CONSISTENCY...BUT WILL NOTE THAT THE
BROADER WEAKNESS OVER TX IS TYPICAL FOR JUNE HEAVY RAIN EVENTS.
BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS AN ENHANCEMENT OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS PROBABLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS EVEN THE DRIER GFS KEEPS A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS OVER CENTRAL TX THROUGH AS LATE AS THURSDAY.
THE CONSENSUS OF WETTER AND DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST CONTINUES TO KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 74 92 74 90 / 30 10 10 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 90 73 93 73 90 / 30 10 10 20 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 93 73 90 / 20 10 10 10 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 87 72 91 72 88 / 20 - 20 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 91 74 96 75 94 / 10 - 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 73 92 73 90 / 20 10 20 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 73 93 73 93 / 20 10 10 10 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 74 92 73 90 / 20 10 10 20 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 91 76 93 75 90 / 30 10 20 20 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 90 76 93 75 90 / 20 10 10 10 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 92 75 94 75 92 / 20 10 10 10 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
347 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A WEAK SHEAR AXIS IS DRAPED ALONG AND NW OF I-35 EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS AXIS AND IS
DEPICTED FAIRLY WELL BY THE RECENT RUC RUNS. THE SHEAR AXIS IS
EXPECTED BY MODEL CONSENSUS TO SHIFT EAST AND POSSIBLY PUSH THE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND PWAT VALUES INTO EASTERN COUNTIES LATE
TODAY WHILE MID LEVEL STABILITY BUILDS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES. THE INCREASING STABILITY IS SUGGESTED TO BE OVER A
SHORT PERIOD... LASTING THROUGH LATE MONDAY. WITH REDUCED CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED THE MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF TODAY SHOULD
REBOUND 2-4 DEGREES WARMER FOR MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A SMALL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND POSSIBLY SEND A WEAKENING COMPLEX
OF STORMS INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH NORTHERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THIS PERIOD...SOME MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE CANADIAN...DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
CENTRAL TX AND AMPLIFY RAIN CHANCES INTO A POSSIBLE FLOOD PATTERN.
A MORE CONSERVATIVE BLEND OF THE DRIER GFS AND WETTER ECMWF IS
PREFERRED FOR FORECAST CONSISTENCY...BUT WILL NOTE THAT THE
BROADER WEAKNESS OVER TX IS TYPICAL FOR JUNE HEAVY RAIN EVENTS.
BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS AN ENHANCEMENT OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS PROBABLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS EVEN THE DRIER GFS KEEPS A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS OVER CENTRAL TX THROUGH AS LATE AS THURSDAY.
THE CONSENSUS OF WETTER AND DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST CONTINUES TO KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 90 74 92 74 90 / 30 10 10 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 90 73 93 73 90 / 30 10 10 20 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 91 74 93 73 90 / 20 10 10 10 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 87 72 91 72 88 / 20 - 20 20 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 91 74 96 75 94 / 10 - 10 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 89 73 92 73 90 / 20 10 20 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 92 73 93 73 93 / 20 10 10 10 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 90 74 92 73 90 / 20 10 10 20 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 91 76 93 75 90 / 30 10 20 20 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 90 76 93 75 90 / 20 10 10 10 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 92 75 94 75 92 / 20 10 10 10 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...99
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1237 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2014
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is MVFR cigs
affecting CNM, HOB and MAF late tonight through early morning. Have
low stratus developing at HOB and MAF by 22/09Z then improving
conditions around 22/13-14Z. Think the stratus will approach CNM from
the east but not quite sure it will make it. Went ahead and kept
TEMPO from 13-15Z for now. Will need to amend or add low cigs at
other sites if MVFR develops there. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail late morning through the end of this TAF cycle.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2014/
DISCUSSION...
A well defined Mexican moisture tap is still evident on water vapor
imagery with embedded shrtwv trof/s, one of which is lifting out
the area while another model depicted shrtwv trof follows and in
part is responsible for renewed SHRA/TSRA. The area where SHRA/TSRA
have been occurring is area co-located where 9h-85h mstr flux has
persisted and PWs are near 1.75" per GEFS (about 2.5 standard
deviations above normal). The RUC13 show this area of moisture
flux redeveloping to the n into the n-ne PB and thus we would not
be surprised to SHRA/TSRA develop into the n-ne these next few
hrs. Heavy rain is main concern and local flooding/flash flooding
is possible.
Mid level ridge will slowly builds in from the w and serve to
push the general mid level trof/moisture axis that has been over
the area to the e resulting in a decreased chance of rain and an
increase in temperatures. Still there are some opportunities for
precip. For Sunday PoPs will generally be confined to the mtns
where very steep LR/s of 8-9 c/km are to be coincident with sfc
dwpnts in the m40-50 along e slopes, flow will be upslope, and
CINH will be a non-issue in/near elevated heat sources. Meanwhile
Sunday night storms may near the far NW CWFA with shrtwv trof in
NW flow aloft. On Monday NAM12/ECMWF better depicts a shrtwv trof
in the NW flow and develops storms by mid/late afternoon in E-SE
NM and then in PB after 21Z. Development may be enhanced by a
boundary from previous convection and/or its own cold pool. Timing
will be important, if it does come thru early then there won`t be
much concern for precip into the evening. Tue models hint at tstms
from the mtns into E-SE NM where moist se low level flow and
secondary mid level theta-e ridge are expected to be. ECMWF wants
light up the mtns again Thur/Fri, while the GFS confines precip
moreso to the Davis mtns. As frequently is the case for the mtns
the development is tied to the mid level theta-e ridge axis and
based on consensus of data the Davis mtns are favored over the GDP
mtns. A mid level trof is progged to push in to the n Friday,
which may advect drier air ewd. Through the extended part of the
fcst the GFS is much warmer than ECMWF in part due to its more
veered/stronger wly winds which aids thermal ridge/dry air.
Climatology certainly favors the GFS and with warm temperatures
already in forecast with probably use a blender approach to catch
general trends.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
27
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
926 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
DRIFT EAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES
SLOWLY FROM OUT OF THE MIDWEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE
SYSTEMS WILL PULL IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR BACK INTO THE MID
APPALACHIAN AND MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO MID WEEK...MAINTAINING A
DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 845 PM EDT MONDAY...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN LACKING FOR A CHANGE THIS EVENING AS THE COMBO
OF THE RESIDUAL WEAK WEDGE...LACK OF UPPER FORCING AND ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO KEEP SHOWERS LIMITED TO THE EXTREME
WEST/SW. THIS IN AN AREA OF RETURN SE FLOW AS BETTER LIFT REMAINS
WELL TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. LATEST HRRR TRIES TO
SNEAK A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS NW NC/SW VA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER
THIS LOOKS IFFY GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...SO HAVE ALREADY REMOVED
MOST POPS EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS SW
OVERNIGHT ESPCLY THE NW N CAROLINA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS PER DEEPER
UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING WEAK INSTABILITY. DO EXPECT THE WEDGE
TO FLOP BACK TO THE WEST WITH CURRENT STRATO- CU ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE LIKELY TO LOWER AND EXPAND FURTHER AFTER MIDNIGHT UNDER A
WEAK BUT MORE EASTERLY TRAJECTORY. ALSO SOME FOG AROUND BUT GIVEN
LIGHT MIXING EARLY AND CLOUDS APPEARS ONLY PATCHY COVERAGE FOR THE
MOST PART. LOW TEMPS ON TRACK WITH SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTS IN
THE VALLEYS...OTRW MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S LOOK GOOD.
THE WEDGE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH
PULSE STORMS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST STARTING IN
THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MID
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITIES WILL BE GREATER TOMORROW THEREFORE THE
CHANCE FOR SEEING MORE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING COMPARED TO
TODAY ARE GOOD. PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO INCREASE TOMORROW BUT
HOVERING AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IS LOW WHILE LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT MONDAY...
ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SFC FRONT EDGE EAST INTO THE MTNS BY 18Z WED THEN SLOW DOWN AS
IT ENCOUNTERS THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. MODELS FAVOR EXITING THE
SHORTWAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT...THEN MODELS STILL BRING WEAK
ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THURSDAY...WHILE FRONT STALLS
OVER THE ERN VA/NC AREA. THINK THURSDAY WILL BE DRIER FOR MOST...BUT
COULD SEE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND AND WITH SOME CONVERGENCE
IN THE LOW LVLS AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE.
ATTM...WEDNESDAY WILL BE WETTER/STORMIER WITH 40-60 POPS...HIGHER IN
THE NW CLOSER TO THE UPPER SUPPORT.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS NOT HIGHLIGHTING ANY SVR THREAT.
TIMING OF CLOUDS/STORMS MAY OFFSET LOW LVL INSTABILITY/LAPSE
RATES...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SVR THREAT.
TEMPS REMAIN TYPICAL OF LATE JUNE. BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY SINK SOME...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING FROM THE MID
60S WEST TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. THE EAST WILL STAY SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM EDT MONDAY...
GOING TO SEE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IN THE REGION THIS PERIOD.
MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED IN THE LOW LVLS WITH WEAK WAVES ALOFT HARD
TO PINPOINT EARLY ON TIMING WISE. RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK SUCH THAT THREAT OF STORMS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENINGS. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT OVERNIGHT SHOWERS OR
STORM THREAT GIVEN THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LVL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXISTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE SOUTHEAST BUT WIND FIELDS ARE WEAK. STILL WILL SEE AT LEAST
THE POPS IN THE 30-50 RANGE FOR FRI-SAT.
TEMPS STAY ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS STAY CLOSER TO WHAT WE EXPECT FOR
LATE JUNE...WITH UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 80S REST OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AND MID 80S/NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT MONDAY...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL WEDGE OVER THE EAST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
IN FROM THE NE HAS BASICALLY PUT A LID ON MOST CONVECTION THIS
EVENING WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE FAR SW MAINLY WEST OF KBLF.
SOME OF THIS ISOLATED COVERAGE ON THE WESTERN PERIMETER OF THE
WEDGE MAY SNEAK FAR ENOUGH EAST TO REACH THE KBLF VICINITY BEFORE
LOSS OF HEATING...OTRW APPEARS NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY OR FORCING
FOR SHOWERS ATTM. OTHER CONCERN WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THE
WEDGE FROM THE EAST AFTER SUNSET WITH GUIDANCE AGAIN SHOWING
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN STRATUS/FOG FROM THE
BLUE RIDGE EAST BY MORNING. SINCE CONSENSUS PER THE RAPID REFRESH
ENSEMBLE SYSTEM SHOWS ANY LOWER CIGS OR VSBYS NOT OCCURRING UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT DELAYED THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER INCLUDED SOME MVFR CIGS MAINLY KROA EAST BY MORNING WHILE
TEMPOING IN LOWER IFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE ACROSS THE
EAST AS THE WEDGE DEEPENS A BIT LATE. CLEARING IN THE WEST MAY
ALSO PROMPT FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KLWB/KBCB WHERE COULD SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR PENDING CLOUDS WHILE APPEARS KBLF MAY STAY VFR
FOR THE MOST PART.
WEDGE WEAKENS AGAIN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH TO THE
WEST ALLOWING A SOMEWHAT DEEPER SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY TO TAKE SHAPE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE. THIS
SHOULD MAKE FOR MAINLY BKN VFR CU CIGS BY MIDDAY ONCE EARLY
FOG/STRATUS FADE BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF LOW CLOUD EXODUS AS
WELL AS ADDED CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY. LATEST MODELS
SHOW MOST SHRA/TSRA STILL WEST OF THE REGION DESPITE THE WEAKENING
UPPER RIDGE BUT APPEARS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE A VICINITY
MENTION AT KBLF/KLWB FOR NOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TIMING REMAINS A BIT IN QUESTION AS POTENTIAL
EARLIER ARRIVAL COULD MEAN MORE COVERAGE IN THE EAST INCLUDING
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN STRONGER STORMS...WHILE BETTER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION IF THE
FRONT SLOWS.
MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT
OVERHEAD OR PUSHES TO THE SE...BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH
HEATING FOR ADDED DIURNAL CONVECTION AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.
MOISTURE LIKELY RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH A REPEAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION FRIDAY LEADING TO BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR. THIS TREND LOOKS TO PERSIST AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH AT
LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION MAKING FOR OCNL MVFR/IFR IN SPOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTRW AREAS OF IFR FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN THE PREVIOUS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WERT/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/RCS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/RCS/WERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
107 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL RETURN AGAIN BY MONDAY...RESULTING IN A
DAILY THREAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 202 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WITH ABUNDANT LOW
CLOUDS AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS WESTERLY WITH LESS CLOUDS AND MORE SUNSHINE. THE
CONVERGENCE OF THESE WIND FLOWS IS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND
FOOTHILL COUNTIES. ACROSS THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS...CAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 800 J/KG AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AROUND 500 J/KG.
HIRES MODELS DISPLAYING TWO SCENARIOS. ONE IS TO HAVE SHOWERS
DEVELOP IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THESE
STORMS GET TALLER...STEERING FLOW WILL HAVE THEM DRIFT TO THE EAST
INTO THIS EVENING. THE SECOND SCENARIO IS TO HAVE SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TRACK INTO THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TAP HEAT AND MOISTURE AND BLOWUP MOVING EAST
ALONG THE WEDGE BOUNDARY. BOTH ARE VIABLE SOLUTIONS AND ARE
DEPICTING IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FROM A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND LOCAL
WRF. ONLY CARRYING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS SURFACE
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ARE IN THE M50S-L60S. DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS ARE IN THE M/U 60S. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT.
CLOUDS IN THE EAST ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY EVIDENCE THAT THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPANDING OR ERODING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE
PIEDMONT COOLER THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON COMPARED TO
AREAS WEST. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD WARM INTO THE L/M
80S THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF
APPROACHES THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST...BEGINNING TO
SUBTLY FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL HAVE BUILT NORTHWEST FROM
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SURFACE WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...AND IN ADVANCE
OF APPROACHING SURFACE TROF WILL GRADUALLY VEER INTO THE SOUTHEAST
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON MONDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY...
WHILE WINDS REMAIN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS
CONFLUENT FLOW...WITH UPSLOPING ON BOTH THE EAST AND WEST SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS...COUPLED WITH WEAK WARM MOIST ADVECTION AS
TROPICAL AIRMASS SLOWLY CREEPS BACK INTO THE MID APPALACHIAN AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SUPPORT DAILY REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
DAILY DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND NEAR THE FLANKS
OF THE APPALACHIANS WHERE CONFLUENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
BE MAXIMIZED...WITH STORMS MORE OF A SCATTERED NATURE ELSEWHERE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL LINGER CLOSER TO
THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE.
WITH GRADUAL BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK SUCH THAT
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED AND CONFINED TO ISOLATED WIND
THREATS WHERE PRECIPITATION LOADING CAN BE MAXIMIZED. OF GREATER
CONCERN IS LACK OF SIGNIFICANT STEERING WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 15K
FEET...SUCH THAT ERRATIC DRIFTING STORM MOVEMENT MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING TO
SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...AND ONLY
SPOTTY HEAVY RAINS RECENTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...SEE NO NEED
TO POST ANY HYDROLOGIC-BASED WATCH AT THE PRESENT TIME.
ALTHOUGH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST TO MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT EVEN LATER
AT NIGHT WHEREVER FORCED ASCENT/WEAK UPSLOPING CAN BE MAINTAINED.
THIS THREAT FURTHER SUPPORTED WITH PLENTY OF VERY WEAK AND SMALL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW THAT ARE FORECAST TO
RIDE AROUND PERIPHERY OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MOST NOTABLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROF AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
GENERALLY ACCEPTED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S...WITH 70S
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. DEVIATIONS WILL LIKELY BE GOVERNED BY
LOCALIZED MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND/OR BY COOL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SATURDAY...
I WOULD NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH CHANGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SITUATE ITSELF NEAR THE AREA WED-THU THEN LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD YET AGAIN.
OVERALL...THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF STORMS...BUT MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THE MOMENT BEST THREAT OF STORMS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE PIECE MOVING ACROSS DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY. EXPECT THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT TO STILL HAVE TIMING
ISSUES WITH WAVES ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.
NOT GOING TO SEE TOO MUCH CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS DRIER DEWPOINTS
STAY WELL NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM THE CAROLINAS BACK INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. ENOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE REGION NORTH OF
THIS SYSTEM.
IFR-MVFR CLOUDS AND EASTERLY FLOW REMAINED OVER THE PIEDMONT
(LYH- DAN) THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE HIGH SUMMER SUN...THIS
WEDGE IS NOT EXPANDING OR ERODING THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS NORTHWESTERLY.
THESE TWO FLOWS CONVERGE ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE FOOTHILLS.
SINCE THIS AREA IS OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUD BOUNDARY...DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITIES ARE CURRENTLY LOW WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION
LIMITED TO SCATTERED AREAL COVERAGE WITH A POSSIBLE FEW STORMS
BECOMING STRONG.
ANY CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND FADE WITH LOSE
OF HEATING. ALSO WITH LOSE OF HEATING...EASTERLY FLOW AND CLOUD
DECK ACROSS THE PIEDMONT MAY EXPAND EASTWARD BRING LOW IFR-MVFR
DECK TO THE BLUE RIDGE.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS NORTH...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ON MONDAY ESPCLY MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER UPPER TROF AND FRONT TO THE WEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL GET
CLOSER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AT LEAST DIURNAL DAILY ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY INCLUDING
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT WASHES OUT OVERHEAD BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH HEATING
FOR ADDED DIURNAL CONVECTION AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR POSSIBLE. AREAS OF IFR FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING... PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN THE
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/RCS
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...RCS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1028 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL RETURN AGAIN BY MONDAY...RESULTING IN A
DAILY THREAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1028 AM EDT SUNDAY...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS BETWEEN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NO DISTINCT SHORT WAVES COMING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW BUT 500 MB
TEMPERATURES DO DROP A FEW DEGREES BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ENOUGH HIGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILD IN EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THAT WINDS HAVE COME AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST. LOW CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE WEDGE AND SPREAD WEST TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE. OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THE WIND WAS LIGHT FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DURING THE DAY AND SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE BETTER.
BUFKIT SHOWED THE THICKNESS OF THE STRATUS WILL ONLY BE A FEW
HUNDRED FEET AND THE SUMMER SUN WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE LAYER. AS
THE CLOUDS ERODE AND RETREAT BACK THE EAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST. HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SHOWED STORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THEN
MOVING SOUTH AND EXTENDING FROM BATH COUNTY TO SURRY COUNTY BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO CREATE A LARGER SPREAD IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY. THE SOONER THE CLOUDS MIX OUT THE WARMER IT WILL BE IN THE
EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF
APPROACHES THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST...BEGINNING TO
SUBTLY FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL HAVE BUILT NORTHWEST FROM
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SURFACE WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...AND IN ADVANCE
OF APPROACHING SURFACE TROF WILL GRADUALLY VEER INTO THE SOUTHEAST
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON MONDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY...
WHILE WINDS REMAIN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS
CONFLUENT FLOW...WITH UPSLOPING ON BOTH THE EAST AND WEST SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS...COUPLED WITH WEAK WARM MOIST ADVECTION AS
TROPICAL AIRMASS SLOWLY CREEPS BACK INTO THE MID APPALACHIAN AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SUPPORT DAILY REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
DAILY DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND NEAR THE FLANKS
OF THE APPALACHIANS WHERE CONFLUENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
BE MAXIMIZED...WITH STORMS MORE OF A SCATTERED NATURE ELSEWHERE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL LINGER CLOSER TO
THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE.
WITH GRADUAL BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK SUCH THAT
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED AND CONFINED TO ISOLATED WIND
THREATS WHERE PRECIPITATION LOADING CAN BE MAXIMIZED. OF GREATER
CONCERN IS LACK OF SIGNIFICANT STEERING WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 15K
FEET...SUCH THAT ERRATIC DRIFTING STORM MOVEMENT MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING TO
SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...AND ONLY
SPOTTY HEAVY RAINS RECENTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...SEE NO NEED
TO POST ANY HYDROLOGIC-BASED WATCH AT THE PRESENT TIME.
ALTHOUGH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST TO MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT EVEN LATER
AT NIGHT WHEREVER FORCED ASCENT/WEAK UPSLOPING CAN BE MAINTAINED.
THIS THREAT FURTHER SUPPORTED WITH PLENTY OF VERY WEAK AND SMALL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW THAT ARE FORECAST TO
RIDE AROUND PERIPHERY OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MOST NOTABLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROF AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
GENERALLY ACCEPTED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S...WITH 70S
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. DEVIATIONS WILL LIKELY BE GOVERNED BY
LOCALIZED MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND/OR BY COOL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SATURDAY...
I WOULD NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH CHANGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SITUATE ITSELF NEAR THE AREA WED-THU THEN LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD YET AGAIN.
OVERALL...THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF STORMS...BUT MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THE MOMENT BEST THREAT OF STORMS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE PIECE MOVING ACROSS DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY. EXPECT THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT TO STILL HAVE TIMING
ISSUES WITH WAVES ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.
NOT GOING TO SEE TOO MUCH CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS DRIER DEWPOINTS
STAY WELL NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SUNDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA WITH A FRONT
TRAILING BACK INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ENOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WAS
BUILDING INTO THE REGION NORTH OF THIS SYSTEM.
FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES OF THE DAY SHOWERS A LAYER OF
MVFR STRATUS JUST EAST OF KROA...WITH SEVERAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
DECK.THIS CLOUD LAYER WAS SHALLOW AND CLOUDS WILL ERODE IN THE
MORNING WITH HEATING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT A MAJORITY OF THE
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE GONE BY 14Z/10AM.
ALONG THE EDGE OF THIS RELATIVELY MORE STABLE AIR...EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. MOST LIKELY LOCATION
FOR STORM IS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM KHSP TO KMWK...SO HAVE ADDED
THUNDER IN THE VCNTY TO THE KBCB/KROA AND KLYH TAFS AFTER
21Z/5PM. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS MAY LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. MODELS HAVE MVFR CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN...MAINLY AFTER
08Z/4AM.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS NORTH...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ON MONDAY ESPCLY MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER UPPER TROF AND FRONT TO THE WEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL GET
CLOSER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AT LEAST DIURNAL DAILY ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY INCLUDING
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT WASHES OUT OVERHEAD BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH HEATING
FOR ADDED DIURNAL CONVECTION AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR POSSIBLE. AREAS OF IFR FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING... PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN THE
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/RCS
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
747 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL RETURN AGAIN BY MONDAY...RESULTING IN A
DAILY THREAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS BETWEEN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NO DISTINCT SHORT WAVES COMING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW BUT 500 MB
TEMPERATURES DO DROP A FEW DEGREES BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ENOUGH HIGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILD IN EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THAT WINDS HAVE COME AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST. LOW CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE WEDGE AND SPREAD WEST TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE. OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THE WIND WAS LIGHT FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DURING THE DAY AND SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE BETTER.
BUFKIT SHOWED THE THICKNESS OF THE STRATUS WILL ONLY BE A FEW
HUNDRED FEET AND THE SUMMER SUN WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE LAYER. AS
THE CLOUDS ERODE AND RETREAT BACK THE EAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST. HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SHOWED STORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THEN
MOVING SOUTH AND EXTENDING FROM BATH COUNTY TO SURRY COUNTY BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO CREATE A LARGER SPREAD IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY. THE SOONER THE CLOUDS MIX OUT THE WARMER IT WILL BE IN THE
EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF
APPROACHES THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST...BEGINNING TO
SUBTLY FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL HAVE BUILT NORTHWEST FROM
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SURFACE WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...AND IN ADVANCE
OF APPROACHING SURFACE TROF WILL GRADUALLY VEER INTO THE SOUTHEAST
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON MONDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY...
WHILE WINDS REMAIN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS
CONFLUENT FLOW...WITH UPSLOPING ON BOTH THE EAST AND WEST SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS...COUPLED WITH WEAK WARM MOIST ADVECTION AS
TROPICAL AIRMASS SLOWLY CREEPS BACK INTO THE MID APPALACHIAN AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SUPPORT DAILY REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
DAILY DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND NEAR THE FLANKS
OF THE APPALACHIANS WHERE CONFLUENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
BE MAXIMIZED...WITH STORMS MORE OF A SCATTERED NATURE ELSEWHERE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL LINGER CLOSER TO
THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE.
WITH GRADUAL BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK SUCH THAT
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED AND CONFINED TO ISOLATED WIND
THREATS WHERE PRECIPITATION LOADING CAN BE MAXIMIZED. OF GREATER
CONCERN IS LACK OF SIGNIFICANT STEERING WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 15K
FEET...SUCH THAT ERRATIC DRIFTING STORM MOVEMENT MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING TO
SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...AND ONLY
SPOTTY HEAVY RAINS RECENTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...SEE NO NEED
TO POST ANY HYDROLOGIC-BASED WATCH AT THE PRESENT TIME.
ALTHOUGH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST TO MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT EVEN LATER
AT NIGHT WHEREVER FORCED ASCENT/WEAK UPSLOPING CAN BE MAINTAINED.
THIS THREAT FURTHER SUPPORTED WITH PLENTY OF VERY WEAK AND SMALL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW THAT ARE FORECAST TO
RIDE AROUND PERIPHERY OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MOST NOTABLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROF AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
GENERALLY ACCEPTED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S...WITH 70S
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. DEVIATIONS WILL LIKELY BE GOVERNED BY
LOCALIZED MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND/OR BY COOL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SATURDAY...
I WOULD NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH CHANGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SITUATE ITSELF NEAR THE AREA WED-THU THEN LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD YET AGAIN.
OVERALL...THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF STORMS...BUT MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THE MOMENT BEST THREAT OF STORMS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE PIECE MOVING ACROSS DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY. EXPECT THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT TO STILL HAVE TIMING
ISSUES WITH WAVES ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.
NOT GOING TO SEE TOO MUCH CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS DRIER DEWPOINTS
STAY WELL NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT SUNDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA WITH A FRONT
TRAILING BACK INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ENOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WAS
BUILDING INTO THE REGION NORTH OF THIS SYSTEM.
FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES OF THE DAY SHOWERS A LAYER OF
MVFR STRATUS JUST EAST OF KROA...WITH SEVERAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
DECK.THIS CLOUD LAYER WAS SHALLOW AND CLOUDS WILL ERODE IN THE
MORNING WITH HEATING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT A MAJORITY OF THE
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE GONE BY 14Z/10AM.
ALONG THE EDGE OF THIS RELATIVELY MORE STABLE AIR...EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. MOST LIKELY LOCATION
FOR STORM IS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM KHSP TO KMWK...SO HAVE ADDED
THUNDER IN THE VCNTY TO THE KBCB/KROA AND KLYH TAFS AFTER
21Z/5PM. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS MAY LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. MODELS HAVE MVFR CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN...MAINLY AFTER
08Z/4AM.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS NORTH...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ON MONDAY ESPCLY MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER UPPER TROF AND FRONT TO THE WEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL GET
CLOSER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AT LEAST DIURNAL DAILY ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY INCLUDING
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT WASHES OUT OVERHEAD BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH HEATING
FOR ADDED DIURNAL CONVECTION AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR POSSIBLE. AREAS OF IFR FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING... PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN THE
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
406 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL RETURN AGAIN BY MONDAY...RESULTING IN A
DAILY THREAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS BETWEEN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NO DISTINCT SHORT WAVES COMING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW BUT 500 MB
TEMPERATURES DO DROP A FEW DEGREES BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ENOUGH HIGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILD IN EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THAT WINDS HAVE COME AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST. LOW CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE WEDGE AND SPREAD WEST TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE. OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THE WIND WAS LIGHT FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DURING THE DAY AND SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE BETTER.
BUFKIT SHOWED THE THICKNESS OF THE STRATUS WILL ONLY BE A FEW
HUNDRED FEET AND THE SUMMER SUN WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE LAYER. AS
THE CLOUDS ERODE AND RETREAT BACK THE EAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST. HRRR AND OTHER SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SHOWED STORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THEN
MOVING SOUTH AND EXTENDING FROM BATH COUNTY TO SURRY COUNTY BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO CREATE A LARGER SPREAD IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY. THE SOONER THE CLOUDS MIX OUT THE WARMER IT WILL BE IN THE
EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF
APPROACHES THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST...BEGINNING TO
SUBTLY FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL HAVE BUILT NORTHWEST FROM
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SURFACE WINDS ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH...AND IN ADVANCE
OF APPROACHING SURFACE TROF WILL GRADUALLY VEER INTO THE SOUTHEAST
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ON MONDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY...
WHILE WINDS REMAIN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS
CONFLUENT FLOW...WITH UPSLOPING ON BOTH THE EAST AND WEST SIDE OF
THE APPALACHIANS...COUPLED WITH WEAK WARM MOIST ADVECTION AS
TROPICAL AIRMASS SLOWLY CREEPS BACK INTO THE MID APPALACHIAN AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION WILL SUPPORT DAILY REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
DAILY DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND NEAR THE FLANKS
OF THE APPALACHIANS WHERE CONFLUENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WILL
BE MAXIMIZED...WITH STORMS MORE OF A SCATTERED NATURE ELSEWHERE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL LINGER CLOSER TO
THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE.
WITH GRADUAL BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK SUCH THAT
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMIZED AND CONFINED TO ISOLATED WIND
THREATS WHERE PRECIPITATION LOADING CAN BE MAXIMIZED. OF GREATER
CONCERN IS LACK OF SIGNIFICANT STEERING WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 15K
FEET...SUCH THAT ERRATIC DRIFTING STORM MOVEMENT MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING TO
SUPPORT A MORE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT...AND ONLY
SPOTTY HEAVY RAINS RECENTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...SEE NO NEED
TO POST ANY HYDROLOGIC-BASED WATCH AT THE PRESENT TIME.
ALTHOUGH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST TO MAINTAIN PRECIPITATION THREAT EVEN LATER
AT NIGHT WHEREVER FORCED ASCENT/WEAK UPSLOPING CAN BE MAINTAINED.
THIS THREAT FURTHER SUPPORTED WITH PLENTY OF VERY WEAK AND SMALL
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN UPPER FLOW THAT ARE FORECAST TO
RIDE AROUND PERIPHERY OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...MOST NOTABLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE
TROF AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE CONSISTENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
GENERALLY ACCEPTED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S...WITH 70S
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. DEVIATIONS WILL LIKELY BE GOVERNED BY
LOCALIZED MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND/OR BY COOL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT SATURDAY...
I WOULD NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH CHANGE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SITUATE ITSELF NEAR THE AREA WED-THU THEN LIFT BACK
NORTH INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD YET AGAIN.
OVERALL...THERE WILL BE A DAILY THREAT OF STORMS...BUT MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THE MOMENT BEST THREAT OF STORMS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE PIECE MOVING ACROSS DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY. EXPECT THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT TO STILL HAVE TIMING
ISSUES WITH WAVES ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.
NOT GOING TO SEE TOO MUCH CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS DRIER DEWPOINTS
STAY WELL NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT SUNDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH A FRONT
TRAILING BACK INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ENOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WAS
BUILDING INTO THE REGION NORTH OF THIS SYSTEM TO BRING SURFACE
WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AT KROA/KLYH/KDAN.
A LAYER OF STRATUS WAS ADVANCING WEST TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE AND IS
EXPECTED TO REACH KROA AROUND THE START OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
MORE QUESTIONABLE IF WEDGE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT INTO KBCB.
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT IFR CEILINGS OUT OF THE KBCB FORECAST. WEDGE IS
SHALLOW AND CLOUDS WILL ERODE IN THE MORNING WITH HEATING.
ALONG THE EDGE OF THIS RELATIVELY MORE STABLE AIR...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS MAY LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...SO FOR NOW HAVE LEFT RETURN OF
IFR CEILINGS OUT OF TAFS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS NORTH...WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ON MONDAY ESPCLY MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER UPPER TROF AND FRONT TO THE WEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL GET
CLOSER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AT LEAST DIURNAL DAILY ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY INCLUDING
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR. MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT WASHES OUT OVERHEAD BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH HEATING
FOR ADDED DIURNAL CONVECTION AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR POSSIBLE. AREAS OF IFR FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING... PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN THE
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...WERT
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/JH
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
822 PM PDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Following the warmest weather of the season so far...temperatures
will return to normal Tuesday with the arrival of a cold front.
Tuesday`s cold front will also bring a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest as well as gusty winds. The
Thursday through Sunday time frame will also feature a chance of
showers and thunderstorms...and will once again accompany gusty
winds.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: Water vapor satellite from this evening showed an upper
level wave moving into Western Washington and Oregon. Radar
imagery shows a narrow area of rain associated with a mid level
front. As this front crosses the Cascades overnight...it will be
moving into an area of dry lower levels. However sufficient mid
level moisture and lift should be enough to bring scattered
showers to the East Slopes (numerous showers near the Cascade
crest), with isolated showers into the Okanogan Valley, Wenatchee
area, and western Columbia basin. Some minor POP increases have
been made based on radar trends and the latest 00z HRRR showing
the eastern edge of the showers tonight making it into Moses
Lake. For Eastern Washington and North Idaho the chance of showers
will hold off til Tuesday morning when the mid level front swings
through. The warm day today followed by increased cloud cover
tonight will yield a mild night for the Inland Northwest with
valley lows mainly in the mid 50s to lower 60s. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: An upper level trough and an associated cold front will
cross the Cascades overnight reaching Eastern Washington and North
Idaho on Tuesday. Scattered showers are expected along the front
and then afternoon sun breaks will destabilize the atmosphere
Tuesday afternoon over northern and eastern Washington as well as
the Idaho Panhandle. Isolated thunderstorms are expected with
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KLWS included in this threat. However with
only isolated coverage expected around the TAF sites VCSH was
maintained for the afternoon with no mention of TS. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 60 74 53 77 56 72 / 0 30 10 10 30 40
Coeur d`Alene 56 73 50 76 53 70 / 0 40 20 10 40 50
Pullman 54 73 48 76 53 71 / 0 30 10 10 60 60
Lewiston 61 80 55 84 60 75 / 0 20 10 10 60 60
Colville 53 75 48 78 53 74 / 10 60 20 10 10 40
Sandpoint 51 73 46 75 49 68 / 10 60 30 20 40 50
Kellogg 53 74 49 74 51 69 / 10 40 30 20 40 60
Moses Lake 63 85 55 84 61 83 / 20 20 0 10 10 20
Wenatchee 67 83 58 83 63 82 / 20 20 0 10 10 20
Omak 61 81 51 83 58 83 / 20 50 10 10 10 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
636 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS INTO TOMORROW IS WITH HOW LONG THE ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL HOLD ON FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN WITH
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW.
CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES
NORTHEAST FROM IOWA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ALONG A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA WHERE MLCAPE IS AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. THE COMBINATION
OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND THE SLOW MOVING
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS LEAD TO SOME FUNNEL CLOUDS FORMING CLOSER TO
THE TWIN CITIES. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
HOURS HERE BEFORE THE SUN STARTS TO SET AND SB/MLCAPE STARTS TO
DROP OFF. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE DEVELOPED SOME SMALL
COLD POOLS WITH THIS CONVECTION AND TRIES TO KEEP IT GOING THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN. THINKING THAT
THESE SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT OVERDONE AS IT HAS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
GETTING INTO THE 90S...BUT WILL KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
GOING INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
THE FOCUS THEN GOES INTO TOMORROW AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA DROPS DOWN INTO THE REGION. THE STRONGEST
500-300MB PV ADVECTION RUNS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT DRIFTS DOWN INTO THE
REGION. THE THINKING IS THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. THE 23.12Z GUIDANCE
ALL SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY TAME AT 500-1000 J/KG
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LITTLE TO NO DEEP SHEAR TO WORK WITH...SO
SUSPECT THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OF THE PULSE NATURE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
WITH THIS COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL UNTIL IT GETS KICKED BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY
NEXT WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS
NOT VERY HIGH AS MUCH OF IT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER ANY CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND WE SEE THE
NORTHERN OVERHANG OF IT. THE 23.12Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY YET HAS SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT THEY HAVE ANALYZED ACROSS THE
AREA. THE 23.12Z NAM...MEANWHILE...HAS THE REGION MAINLY DRY
EXCEPT FOR A PORTION OF THE FRONT IN CENTRAL IOWA WHERE IT BUILDS
SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 70S AND TAKES MLCAPE UP TOO HIGH.
SO...THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BUT AT LEAST EXPECT THAT THE RAINS WILL
NOT BE ALL DAY DEALS AND JUST SOME PERIODS WHERE THIS CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE.
A PATTERN CHANGE TAKES PLACE FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS A DEEPER MID
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS FEATURE STALLS
OUT AND A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD SEVERE WEATHER-WISE WITH
STRONG 500MB WINDS OVERHEAD TO GO ALONG WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
DETAILS WILL FALL OUT THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE
THE TIME FRAME TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
DECAYING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF COOL FRONT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AS THEY
APPROACH KLSE THIS EVENING. NO FOG CONCERNS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
STAYING UP AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS IN PLACE. AN APPROACHING FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD SPARK
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
WHILE THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS WEEK...THE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LOW WITH MOST OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT STAYING SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE
STILL IS A LOT OF WATER COMING DOWN THE RIVERS FROM CENTRAL
MINNESOTA WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL LAST WEEK. EXPECT AREA
RIVERS...ESPECIALLY THE MAIN STEMS...TO STAY UP THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...ZT
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
334 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH TOMORROW IS ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND
WHETHER ANY FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE.
AN MCV FROM OVERNIGHT HAS COME THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION FROM
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND HAS KICKED UP
A BAND OF CONVECTION/RAIN OUT AHEAD OF IT. MUCH OF THE 22.12Z
GUIDANCE HAS NOT DONE A VERY GOOD JOB OF PICKING UP ON THIS
FEATURE AND STILL WANT TO DEVELOP A WIDE SWATH OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE HRRR HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF
CAPTURING THIS CONVECTION AND CLEARS MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE
WEST EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR MASS APPEARS TO
STAY OUT AHEAD OF THE MCV...SO AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SEVERE DEVELOPMENT BEHIND IT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH WITH HOW
TONIGHT WILL PAN OUT WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT STILL OFF TO THE
WEST...SO WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR THE TIME
BEING AND LET THE EVENING PLAY OUT A BIT MORE BEFORE CANNING IT.
THE 22.12Z NAM/GFS/GEM DID TREND FASTER WITH PUSHING THE
PRECIPITATION/MID LEVEL TROUGH/SFC LOW OFF TO THE EAST TOMORROW
MORNING...SO HAVE TRENDED A BIT FASTER WITH ENDING THE RAIN
CHANCES TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
AS SUBSIDENT AIR COMES IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG WITH IT. SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WITH THIS
FEATURE WITH LESS THAN 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXPECTED...SO NOT
THINKING THAT THIS WILL BE A SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCER AT THIS
POINT.
AFTER THAT FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH IT APPEARS TO STALL OUT FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS ON DOWN SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH WITH OUR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT ALSO DID NOT HAVE MUCH OF
A CHANCE TO DIG INTO THE DETAILS WITH CONVECTION ON GOING...SO
HAVE GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL BLENDS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH KLSE
AROUND 22.1830Z. THE MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL
LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH KRST AT 23.10Z AND KLSE AT 23.12Z. THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LAST WEEK HAS PRIMED THE GROUND FOR ADDITIONAL
FLOODING WITH ANY STORMS THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH. THE STORMS TODAY
HAD SOME BRIEFLY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AT ABOUT 2 INCHES PER HOUR
THOUGH THEY ONLY LASTED FOR ABOUT A HALF HOUR. MANY AREA RIVERS
ARE STILL ELEVATED FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL AND WILL LIKELY STAY
THAT WAY THROUGH THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS
POINT ABOUT WHETHER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS STILL NECESSARY FOR
TONIGHT...BUT WANT TO MAKE SURE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE OKAY
BEFORE DROPPING IT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041-042-053>055-061.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1211 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.UPDATE...VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...AS DAYTIME HEATING STARTS TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
SHOULD SEE LOW STRATUS DECK IN THAT AREA CONTINUE TO MIX OUT AS
WELL BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE LOW STRATUS. HIGHS LOOK ON TRACK...RANGING FROM
THE 60S NEAR THE LAKE TO THE MID 80S WEST AND SOUTH OF MADISON.
OTHER ISSUE IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH LINE OF
STORMS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND EASTERN
IOWA. THESE BEING DRIVEN BY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ENTERING WESTERN IOWA. MEAN LAYER CAPES SHOULD INCREASE TO 1000 TO
1500 J/KG IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND COULD GET
SOMEWHAT HIGHER INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO...SO
NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE IN OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES. HRRR HAVING TROUBLE WITH CURRENT TRENDS...WITH
4 KM WRF/NMM KEEPING EVERYTHING JUST WEST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.
SPC HAS FAR WEST IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE PUT THE FAR WESTERN THREE COUNTIES IN A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 00Z MONDAY. WILL CERTAINLY HAVE
TO WATCH STORM TRENDS AS THEY SHIFT CLOSER TO THIS AREA...GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. WILL ADD PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER
POPS FOR THUNDER INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO EASTERN TAF
SITES BY 18Z TO 19Z SUNDAY...AS LAST OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MIX
OUT. DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT WINDS. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND EASTERN IOWA MAY AFFECT MADISON AFTER 21Z SUNDAY.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS MAY REACH...WILL
JUST MENTION VICINITY THUNDER IN MADISON BETWEEN 21Z SUNDAY AND
00Z MONDAY.
SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT FOG AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...DOWN TO NEAR ALTERNATE
MINIMUMS. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG AGAIN...AS WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON OR
MONDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
AFTER 06Z MONDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES
ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS...WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST 15Z MONDAY. WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE COOL LAKE WATERS DURING THIS TIME...AND WILL
REMAIN THERE UNTIL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING. SO...MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY INTO MONDAY EVENING
IN LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
MADE A RATHER SHARP DEVIATION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT 24 HRS. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
TROF...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND A DRY COLUMN NOW EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. IN THE VERY SHORT
TERM...CALM WINDS...DAMP GROUND...A VERY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER
AND SOME INFLUENCE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN HAS LEAD TO WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE WESTERN EDGE IS TOUGH TO DETERMINE
BUT IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WATERTOWN AND MADISON. SOME BLOWOFF CIRRUS
FROM CONVECTION UPSTREAM IS HELPING TO KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS IN
BETTER SHAPE. THE SOUTHEAST IS ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COOLER
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE. ALBEIT A VERY LIGHT FLOW...BUT IT/S
ENOUGH. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM FOR ALL BUT THE
FAR WRN TIER OF COUNTIES. I MAY HAVE TO TRIM ANOTHER TIER OUT OF
THE ADVISORY EARLY IF MSN DOESN/T DETERIORATE SOON.
THE NEXT TROF BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME
DEEP Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IMPINGING ON THE AREA. THE LEADING WARM
ADVECTION IS UNIMPRESSIVE SO DON/T SEE MUCH NEED TO TRY TO BRING
THIS IN FASTER THAN THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. CAPE LOOKS
WEAK WITH LOW LEVEL CAPPING. ANY THUNDER WILL BE ELEVATED AND NOT
VERY STRONG. WE COULD SEE SOME FOG AGAIN IN THE EAST AS THE FLOW
WILL BE ONSHORE AGAIN.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE VERY SLOW-MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS WISCONSIN
ON MONDAY. VORTICITY ADVECTION...RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET...STRONG 700MB OMEGA AND FRONTOGENESIS LINE UP OVER SOUTHERN WI
MIDDAY MONDAY. RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
EXPECTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN TALL SKINNY CAPE OF AROUND
1500 J/KG AND 20 KT BULK SHEAR AND THE FOCUSED SYNOPTIC FORCING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND LOW MBE
VELOCITIES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE AREA.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING. THE GFS IS SLOWER TO END THE PRECIP THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF.
LONG TERM...
TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
EXPECTING QUIET WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR
OVERHEAD AND LACK OF ANY FORCING. A SURFACE TO 850MB COLD FRONT
STATIONED ACROSS NORTHERN WI WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN WI TUE
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM ALONG
THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.
THE STALLED 925-850MB FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST WI WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ROLLING THROUGH. THEN THAT BOUNDARY MAY LIFT INTO NORTHERN
WI FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND KEEP SOUTHERN WI ON THE WARM AND
CAPPED SIDE OF THE FRONT PER THE 00Z ECMWF...OR IT COULD STALL RIGHT
OVER SOUTHERN WI AND CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY PER THE GFS. THEREFORE...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY TIME PERIOD IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE PRECIP CHANCES.
WENT WITH CONSENSUS FORECAST VALUES.
THE ONE MORE CERTAIN THING IS THAT EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND KEEP LAKESHORE TEMPS COOLER.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH ABOUT 14-
15Z WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. THE RAP AND
AMDAR AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS STUFF IS 2-3KFT THICK. THIS
LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE RAP HAS THIS MIXING OUT BY
AROUND NOON...GIVE OR TAKE...JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...SO SEE NO REASON
TO DISAGREE. THERE SHOULD ONLY BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND ONCE THE
LOW STUFF SCATTERS OUT. FOR THE AIR SHOW...HOWEVER...WE SHOULD
STILL SEE SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE WATER DUE TO THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MOVING LITTLE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE LAKE.
IT/S POSSIBLE LAKE AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THESE SITUATIONS. FOR KMSN...IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR MUCH
QUICKER WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY 14Z.
AN EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TONIGHT COULD BRING IN SOME LOWER VSBYS
AGAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT THERE WILL BE MUCH MORE FLOW ABOVE THE
DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER SO NOT EXPECTING VSBYS TO BE AS LOW OR FOR
THERE TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW STRATUS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMSN TOWARD 12Z MON AS A TROF
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AGAIN...THIS TIME TO 15Z
MON...OR 10 AM MON. JUST NOT SEEING MUCH PATTERN CHANGE OR REASON
FOR SIGGY IMPROVEMENT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
342 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
MADE A RATHER SHARP DEVIATION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT 24 HRS. THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
TROF...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND A DRY COLUMN NOW EXPECTED TO KEEP
THE AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. IN THE VERY SHORT
TERM...CALM WINDS...DAMP GROUND...A VERY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER
AND SOME INFLUENCE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN HAS LEAD TO WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE WESTERN EDGE IS TOUGH TO DETERMINE
BUT IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WATERTOWN AND MADISON. SOME BLOWOFF CIRRUS
FROM CONVECTION UPSTREAM IS HELPING TO KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS IN
BETTER SHAPE. THE SOUTHEAST IS ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COOLER
SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE. ALBEIT A VERY LIGHT FLOW...BUT IT/S
ENOUGH. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM FOR ALL BUT THE
FAR WRN TIER OF COUNTIES. I MAY HAVE TO TRIM ANOTHER TIER OUT OF
THE ADVISORY EARLY IF MSN DOESN/T DETERIORATE SOON.
THE NEXT TROF BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME
DEEP Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IMPINGING ON THE AREA. THE LEADING WARM
ADVECTION IS UNIMPRESSIVE SO DON/T SEE MUCH NEED TO TRY TO BRING
THIS IN FASTER THAN THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. CAPE LOOKS
WEAK WITH LOW LEVEL CAPPING. ANY THUNDER WILL BE ELEVATED AND NOT
VERY STRONG. WE COULD SEE SOME FOG AGAIN IN THE EAST AS THE FLOW
WILL BE ONSHORE AGAIN.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE VERY SLOW-MOVING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS WISCONSIN
ON MONDAY. VORTICITY ADVECTION...RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET...STRONG 700MB OMEGA AND FRONTOGENESIS LINE UP OVER SOUTHERN WI
MIDDAY MONDAY. RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
EXPECTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN TALL SKINNY CAPE OF AROUND
1500 J/KG AND 20 KT BULK SHEAR AND THE FOCUSED SYNOPTIC FORCING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND LOW MBE
VELOCITIES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE AREA.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING. THE GFS IS SLOWER TO END THE PRECIP THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF.
.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
EXPECTING QUIET WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR
OVERHEAD AND LACK OF ANY FORCING. A SURFACE TO 850MB COLD FRONT
STATIONED ACROSS NORTHERN WI WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH SOUTHERN WI TUE
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM ALONG
THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW.
THE STALLED 925-850MB FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST WI WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ROLLING THROUGH. THEN THAT BOUNDARY MAY LIFT INTO NORTHERN
WI FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND KEEP SOUTHERN WI ON THE WARM AND
CAPPED SIDE OF THE FRONT PER THE 00Z ECMWF...OR IT COULD STALL RIGHT
OVER SOUTHERN WI AND CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY PER THE GFS. THEREFORE...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EVERY TIME PERIOD IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE PRECIP CHANCES.
WENT WITH CONSENSUS FORECAST VALUES.
THE ONE MORE CERTAIN THING IS THAT EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND KEEP LAKESHORE TEMPS COOLER.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH ABOUT 14-
15Z WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. THE RAP AND
AMDAR AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS STUFF IS 2-3KFT THICK. THIS
LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE RAP HAS THIS MIXING OUT BY
AROUND NOON...GIVE OR TAKE...JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...SO SEE NO REASON
TO DISAGREE. THERE SHOULD ONLY BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND ONCE THE
LOW STUFF SCATTERS OUT. FOR THE AIR SHOW...HOWEVER...WE SHOULD
STILL SEE SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE WATER DUE TO THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MOVING LITTLE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE LAKE.
IT/S POSSIBLE LAKE AREAS WILL CLEAR OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THESE SITUATIONS. FOR KMSN...IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR MUCH
QUICKER WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY 14Z.
AN EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TONIGHT COULD BRING IN SOME LOWER VSBYS
AGAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT THERE WILL BE MUCH MORE FLOW ABOVE THE
DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER SO NOT EXPECTING VSBYS TO BE AS LOW OR FOR
THERE TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW STRATUS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMSN TOWARD 12Z MON AS A TROF
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AGAIN...THIS TIME TO 15Z
MON...OR 10 AM MON. JUST NOT SEEING MUCH PATTERN CHANGE OR REASON
FOR SIGGY IMPROVEMENT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ046-047-
051-052-057>060-063>066-068>072.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1151 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014
AT 3 PM...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY...GENERATED FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS IN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA LAST EVENING...WAS
MOVING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN AN AREA OF 2500 J/KG SURFACE
CAPES. BOTH THE 21.12Z ARW AND LATEST HRRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS ADAMS AND JUNEAU COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 22.03Z...AND THEN THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT WILL BE DRY AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAX AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE.
ON SUNDAY...THE 21.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES...
THE AREA ENTERS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50 KNOT 250 MB
JET...AND THE SURFACE BASE CAPES CLIMB INTO THE 3-4K J/KG RANGE.
WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS...THEY DO DIFFER SOME
ON HOW ORGANIZED THIS CONVECTION BECOMES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
ARW SUGGEST A LINE OF STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE
21.12Z SPC WRF SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE LESS
ORGANIZED. WHILE THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NOT SUFFICIENT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS...THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
RUNNING IN THE 7 TO 8 C/KM RANGE WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE HAIL AND DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUDS MAY AID IN
STRENGTHENING THE DOWN DRAFTS...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR
PULSE SEVERE STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE
ORGANIZED AS THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE JET WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. IN ADDITION...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE
AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CLIMB TO 4 KM AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SOME
MORE FLOODING. WITH MODELS DEVIATING ON THE TIMING...LOCATION OF
THE SURFACE LOW...AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...HELD OFF
ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. WHILE THE 0-6 KM SHEAR REMAINS
WEAK...THE 0-3 KM DOES EXCEED 30 KNOTS AND THIS COULD RESULT IN
SOME WIND DAMAGE AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES.
MONDAY NIGHT IS NOW LOOKING DRY IN ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...EITHER REDUCED OR TOOK OUT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY....A CANADIAN COLD FRONT DROPS INTO
THE REGION. WHILE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AT DOING THIS...
THEY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL GET.
THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER THERE IS ONLY WEAK MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION WHICH RESULTS IN WEAK 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM
SHEAR...THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUESTIONS ON
HOW FAR WEST THIS RIDGE WILL END UP AND THIS WILL GREATLY AFFECT
WHETHER WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION OR NOT. DUE TO THIS...JUTS
STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014
MAIN WEATHER STORY OCCURS SUNDAY AT TAF SITES AS INSTABILITY
BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND STORMS LOOK MORE
FAVORABLE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IN THE MORNING...IT APPEARS AN
INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL BE WEST OF KRST WITH DAKOTAS STORMS
MOVING TO ABOUT I-35 IN MN/IA...THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY LEAVING DEBRIS
CLOUD INTO KRST AND KLSE. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN TOO...WILL HAVE
TO LET THIS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE A FLIGHT RESTRICTION WITH IT.
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BE BUILDING AND A FRONT
WILL WORK OUT OF THE WEST VERY SLOWLY. VERY MOIST AIR WILL MOVE IN
BY EVENING WITH INCREASING STORM AND HEAVY RAIN
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR KRST. AFTER 06Z...EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO
COME DOWN IN RAIN AND STORMS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014
THE MISSISSIPPI TRIBUTARIES HAVE CRESTED AND ARE NOW FALLING.
MEANWHILE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS RISING WITH FLOODING EXPECTED
AT WABASHA...WINONA...AND MCGREGOR. AT THIS TIME...LA CROSSE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES HELD OFF ISSUING A FLOOD
WATCH FOR NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
631 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
DEEPER CUMULUS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST HOUR IN THE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...BUT SO FAR NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF UPSCALE GROWTH AS THESE CELLS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
PLAINS. DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN AREAS NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THIS EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
MLCAPES OF 1000-1250 J/KG STRETCHING ALONG INTERSTATE 80 OVER THE
PLAINS COMBINED WITH 35-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. THE HRRR MODEL HAS A
LONE STORM MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE
LATE AFTN. SO VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT OVER LARAMIE COUNTY AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS GOING THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE GRADUALLY INCREASING
TEMPS AND INSTABILITY. FLOW ALOFT IS STILL WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY ON
TUES WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. DEW POINTS
INCH UP SLIGHTLY...SO CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE OVER TODAY WITH THE
GFS SHOWING AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG INTERSTATE 80. INSTABILITY DROPS
OFF TO 750 J/KG ACROSS CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY
BE OVER AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF A WHEATLAND TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE.
TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS AFTN. THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS STILL LOOKING LIKE
WED. A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WY DURING THE AFTN AND
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS BY WED AFTN ARE INTO THE UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S ALMOST EVERYWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER
THAN THE PRECEDING DAYS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE
AXIS...THERE IS STILL AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ITS A BIT
EARLY TO PINPOINT THE AREA OVER THE PLAINS THAN HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT IT WOULD SEEM TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAN MOVES INTO WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WEAK UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS YIELDS TO A BROADER UPPER TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT VEERS TO WESTERLY. SURFACE PATTERN WILL
BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH A RIDGE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND TROUGH ACROSS
THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH PASSING
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MINIMAL GIVEN WEAK SHEAR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FOR THE PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
DRIER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
60S AND 70S FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 626 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS CYCLE WILL BE THE CONTINUED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST THROUGH 04Z AT AREA TERMINALS.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIALLY BEEN SKIRTING KLAR AND KCYS...BUT
SHOULD IMPACT THESE TWO AERODROMES BETWEEN 01-03Z. WILL KEEP VCTS
GOING AT OTHER SITES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KRWL WHERE CONDITIONS LOOK TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN
VCSH. CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY LATE
EVENING OR AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL NEED TO LOOK CLOSELY AT FOG
POTENTIAL AGAIN AT KLAR LATER TONIGHT AS CONDITIONS LOOK VERY
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MIDWEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST AND THE BEST CHANCE
OF WETTING RAINS WILL EXIST TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SUCH
THAT MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 15
PERCENT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1036 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2014
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTN OVER GOSHEN COUNTY AND HAVE
MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THEY HAVE STRUGGLED
TO BECOME DISCRETE SO FAR DUE TO THE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR
(25-30 KTS) AND HAVE FORMED INTO LINES/CLUSTERS. SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS GOOD INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG OVER THE
PANHANDLE. BELIEVE THAT THE MAIN SVR THREAT DURING THE AFTN WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE HIGH LCLS AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER OVER
THE PANHANDLE. LARGE HAIL IS LESS OF THE THREAT WITH THE MARGINAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...HOWEVER MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THROUGH 03Z. ALL OF THIS STORM ACTIVITY IS OCCURING
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN
COLORADO. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS MOST STORMS PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE
CWA BY AROUND 00Z.
COLD FRONT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE STILL NORTHERLY AT 18Z SUN
AND THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE AFTN. MODELS HAVE
DECREASED INSTABILITY A BIT OVER YESTERDAYS RUN WITH LI VALUES OF
AROUND -3C IN LARAMIE/PLATTE COUNTIES AND EXTENDING EASTWARD ALONG
THE COLORADO BORDER. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTN IN THE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...HOWEVER DO NOT
BELIEVE THEY WILL BECOME SVR AS THEY PUSH EASTWARD. STORM COVERAGE
WILL BE MORE LIMITED OVER THE PANHANDLE AS THE AIRMASS IS MORE
STABLE POST FRONTAL. TEMPS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY.
FOR MONDAY SFC WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND AIRMASS IS MORE
UNSTABLE THAN SUNDAY IN AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS IS
THE DAY AFTER THE FROPA...WHICH OFTEN TIMES LEADS TO A GREATER SVR
THREAT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS STRONG ENOUGH...COMBINED WITH
THE SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW...TO PRODUCE 40-45 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SVR POTENTIAL ON MONDAY IN AREAS
ALONG INTERSTATE 80.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2014
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS
AND EURO SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DAILY CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AS SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL RETURN FLOW
PERSISTS ALL WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT THETA-E RIDGING
OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
SECOND DAY POST-FRONTAL...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF
40-50 KNOTS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY.
THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. PROGD
SBCAPES WILL FLARE TO BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG FOR WED AND
THU...WHICH SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO COMPENSATE FOR SOMEWHAT
LIGHTER VALUES OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WOULD EXPECT SEVERE POTENTIAL
TO CONTINUE FOR BOTH WED AND THU MAINLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
AS WELL. TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH ON FRIDAY...DRAGGING A PACIFIC
FRONT THRU THE AREA WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUNT BEST INSTABILITY
EAST OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO TURN MORE ISOLATED EARLY
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONALLY PERSISTENT THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH 70S ON TUESDAY WARMING INTO THE 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY COMING TO AN END OUT IN THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. STILL A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN WYOMING THAT WILL SAG SOUTH WITH A COLD FRONT SUNDAY.
FRONT IS A LITTLE SLOWER NOW ON FORECAST MODELS THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST...SO WE ARE LOOKING AT THIS FRONT TO MAKE IT DOWN TO THE
CHEYENNE AREA PROBABLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AFTER 12Z. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR STRATUS FROM FORMING AS THE SUN WILL
BE UP PRIOR TO THE FRONT MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING.
STILL...CONVECTION SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE
PANHANDLE AIRPORTS SHOULD SEE THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE AROUND 15 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO
20-25 MPH THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SINCE FUELS ARE STILL GREEN ENOUGH
TO NOT SUPPORT FIRE GROWTH...NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS
EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES TO INCREASE TO THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE FOR AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH COVERAGE HIGHEST TO THE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...HAHN
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE OUR HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN
TO VERY SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION BY TONIGHT. THIS FRONT COULD
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION LATER TODAY. TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DRAG THROUGH THE REGION...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING
ALONG IT...WHICH WILL PRODUCE BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE WORKED INTO EXTREME
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES. SO FAR NO CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND THE LATEST RUC AND MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED
LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. SO WE WILL CALL THESE SCATTERED THROUGH
EARLY MORNING.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION REMAINED DRY AND MILD AS A
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S
AT THIS HOUR...WITH ONLY A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.
THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL IF AT ALL. THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST...BUT THERE WERE MORE SHOWERS UPSTREAM IN LEWIS COUNTY.
ASIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST CORNER...ALL OTHER AREAS OF THE FORECAST
REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. A SOUTH WIND WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 15 MPH.
THERE WILL A SLOW INCREASE IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
LATER TODAY...SUNSHINE WILL BE HAPPENING FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND
TO THE SOUTHEAST DESPITE THESE INCREASING CLOUDS. A SOUTH WIND WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO PERHAPS EVEN 30
MPH AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST...WITH SOME LOCALITIES EVEN
REACHING THE UPPER 80S. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...WITH THICKER
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM...CLOSER TO 80.
DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CREEP THROUGH THE 50S...REACHING 60 OR HIGHER
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ALL OF THE FACTORS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT
30KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORM THAT DO DEVELOP COULD END UP
PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS (PROBABLY SUBSEVERE) BUT A ROGUE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH A BOWING SEGMENT. PWATS RAMP TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES...SO ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD HEAVY RAINFALL. WE
CONTINUE TO USE ENHANCED WORDING IN OUR GRIDS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST...WE ONLY GAVE SLIGHT
POPS (ACTUALLY NONE SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY AS RIDGING ALOFT WILL LIKELY
PREVENT ANY UPWARD MOTION AND RESULTANT SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SINCE THE COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE OUR WEST TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...MIGHT ACTUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT..ALTHOUGH REMNANTS OF THOSE STORMS COULD CERTAINLY MOVE
FURTHER EAST.
DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S EVERYWHERE MAKING IT MUGGY NIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 60S...CLOSER TO 70 IN THE IMMEDIATE
CAPITAL REGION.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MORE ORGANIZED UPPER DYNAMICS...A
LITTLE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND CORE...MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN ORGANIZED BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL LARGELY
BE BASED AT THE SURFACE AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL DO NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS...BUT MAYBE MORE OF A VERY HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL BASED ON THE VERY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES AROUND TWO
INCHES REGION WIDE.
GUIDANCE HAS BETTER AGREEMENT WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIES RAINFALL
WILL TAKE PLACE. REALLY MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY
RECEIVE AN INCH OR BETTER OF RAINFALL. INITIALLY...NORTHERN AREAS
WILL GET HIT EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH
AND EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
WE ARE STILL NOT READY TO ISSUE ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES YET...AS THE
BULK OF THE RAIN WILL NOT FALL UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY AND THE
CONFIDENCE OF FLASH FLOODING IS BELOW 50 PERCENT DUE TO SOMEWHAT DRY
CONDITIONS GOING INTO THIS EVENT. MORE ABOUT HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES CAN
BE FOUND IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SECTION.
THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS OF LINGERING UPPER ENERGY AND A LOW
LEVEL FEATURE FOR ONE LAST ROUND OF LOW LEVEL FORCING AS THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS EAST AND SOUTH. SO...LINGERING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING IN MOST
PLACES...BUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON HOW CLOUDS IT
REMAINS. THE 00Z NAM MOS NUMBERS WERE COOLER BASED ON MORE CLOUDS
WHILE THE MAV MOS NUMBERS INDICATED PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.
FOR NOW...WENT WITH THE MAV/MET MIX BUT LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER
MET NUMBERS. THIS WOULD GIVE HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 AROUND THE CAPITAL
REGION...LOWER TO MID 80S FURTHER SOUTH...70S WELL NORTH AND WEST.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH HOLDING WELL INTO THE 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND ONLY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S ALBANY SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT EXITS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
THE ENTIRE REGION TO ENJOY SOME TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS TO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. GETTING
WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS POINT FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST
OF THE SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
06Z WEDNESDAY. AT KALB HAVE INDICATED VCSH IN THE FORECAST AFTER 23Z
TUESDAY...AND AFTER 21Z AT KGFL. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VCSH HAS ALSO
BEEN FORECAST FOR KGFL TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO A BATCH OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM LAKE ONTARIO. AT KPOU/KPSF...
HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY THREAT OF PCPN.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW OCCURRING AT ALL THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT...AND WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION...THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT AND
HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY.
SOUTH WINDS AT KGFL/KPSF/KPOU OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 8 KTS OR
LESS...BUT AT KALB THE SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 KTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL THE TAF SITES ON
TUESDAY TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 16 TO 22 KTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 15 KTS
AT KALB.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY TODAY OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE.
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MORE POSSIBLE.
A GUSTY SOUTH WIND WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH.
A WET AND UNSETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
RH VALUES SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 60 TO
80 PERCENT RANGE. ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH
OR MORE OF RAINFALL.
A DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY TODAY. SOME OF THESE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL RESULTING WITH SOME PONDING OF WATER. ONLY AN OUTSIDE OF
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW...AND ONE...IF NOT
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE...TO LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SCATTERED
EVERYWHERE ELSE. BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY WITH POTENTIAL FOR PONDING OF WATER.
WE ARE FORECASTING AN AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO
PRODUCE SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON SOME RIVERS AND
STREAMS. A COUPLE SPOTS LIKE DELTA DAM AND UTICA COULD REACH ACTION
STAGE.
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL DO HAVE THE REMOTE
POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING BUT RIGHT NOW...THE THREAT
OF THAT WAS LOWER THAN 50 PERCENT SO NO FLASH FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
WERE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT. KEEP IN MIND ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD
PRODUCE LOCAL AMOUNTS WELL OVER 2 INCHES.
STAY TUNED.
DRIER WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
350 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
Quiet weather was in place across the local forecast area early this
morning with light winds, high clouds, and departing surface high
pressure. Farther to the west in western KS and eastern CO, a
loosely organized convective system was making slow eastward
progression. This convection seemed tied to a weak upper disturbance
that was making a very slow eastward progression out of CO and NM
through weak flow aloft. Additional weak, but seemingly more
well-defined upper waves were located over southern California and
eastern Montana. While the CA wave will be slow to move east, it
seems that the Montana system may dive southeast and possibly
interact with the system in eastern Colorado by tonight.
In terms of the local forecast and sensible weather through tonight,
expect the area of showers and thunderstorms to continue with slow
but steady eastward development. Generally speaking, the NMM, ARW,
and HRRR seem to be handling the situation well through the day,
which coincides fairly well with larger scale model guidance as
well. This suggests that showers and a few storms may encroach upon
the Highway 81 corridor by early afternoon and possibly build into
far eastern KS by early evening. All indications suggest a tight
instability gradient from east to west which also gradually
progresses to the east with time. This should prevent the convection
from developing more quickly east today even if a few cold pools
push out from convection. As the instability does arrive, it will be
rather meager, as will wind shear profiles, and even strong storms
seem quite unlikely through tonight. All told, much of the area
stands a good chance to see at least some precip by sunrise on
Wednesday, although amounts may be spotty.
Aside from precip, temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s
today, with some question in just how warm it will get depending
largely on cloud cover as more widespread clouds could hold everyone
in the lower 80s. Winds will be light through tonight and dewpoints
will remain fairly comfortable...in the low to middle 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A slow upper shortwave trough translates southeast over the CO
Rockies and central plains on Wednesday afternoon. Position and
timing from guidance was fairly similar in developing a swath of
showers and thunderstorms across the CWA from the overnight into
the afternoon hours. Ample southerly moisture transport is aided by
PWAT values in excess of 1.6 inches through the period. Have
increased chances across the area during the day, gradually
tapering off west to east by Wednesday evening. Do not expect
severe storms with main threat being heavy rain and flash
flooding.
Occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected from Thursday
onward as weaker upper perturbations within the mean flow give
much uncertainty where mesoscale boundaries or areas of lift are
positioned for scattered convection to form. Similar to previous
trends, late afternoon into early evening time frame during peak
heating and minimal inhibition is likely.
The weekend forecast, for the most part, appears dry Friday and
Saturday with temporary ridging over the area. On Saturday, H5 flow
begins to back and increase toward the southwest in response to a
deepening upper trof across the western CONUS. By the late afternoon
period, a moist and unstable airmass in place may trigger scattered
thunderstorms along/ahead of a cold front stretched over central KS
into south central NE. A few storms may be severe in proximity to
the convergent boundary where surface based CAPE in excess of 3000
J/KG complements effective shear near 40 kts. Activity weakens as it
progresses eastward by Sunday with some indication of redevelopment
by late afternoon across east central areas. Otherwise trends from
the GFS/ECMWF depict weak trofs rotating through the main wave as
the frontal boundary becomes a focal point for additional scattered
convection Sunday evening into Monday.
Minor adjustments were made to temperatures in the extended.
Insulation from cloud cover and rainfall Wednesday should hold highs
to the low 80s throughout the afternoon. Sunshine returns Thursday
as consensus guidance warrants increased highs in the mid and upper 80s.
With ample sunshine and increased boundary layer mixing through the
weekend, warming trend continues with highs in the upper 80s to low
90s by Monday. Overnight lows follow suit from the mid 60s Thursday
to the low 70s Friday into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
Previous thinking was that the recent rains, light winds, and
clear skies was going to cause ground fog or haze later this
morning, but increasing clouds from the convection out west might
inhibit this development. There is probably still a slight chance
of haze at TOP and MHK, but vis should remain VFR or perhaps
briefly drop to MVFR depending on the cloud coverage. There is a
chance non-severe thunderstorms could reach MHK after 00Z
although the confidence on coverage and timing is low at this
point. Thunderstorms may also reach TOP/FOE very late in the taf
period.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Sanders
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
335 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2014
...Updated Short Term Section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
At the time of this writing (just after 0830 UTC), a small mesoscale
convective system (MCS) was slowly dissolving as it moved
east-southeast across southwestern Kansas. There were other weakly
organized storms across northwestern Kansas. There appeared to be a
slow warming in infrared cold cloud tops associated with the western
Kansas convection as we head toward the early morning hours. Water
vapor and RAP analysis suggested a weak shortwave trough from
southern Wyoming down into central Colorado. This feature will allow
the redevelopment of the southeastern Colorado leeside low with
south-southeast winds resuming by mid to late morning across
portions of southwestern Kansas. Winds in the wake of this morning`s
MCS will be light and one or two convergence zones will likely set
up at the surface where south to southeast winds of 12 to 15 knots
will converge into areas of weak or nearly calm winds over portions
of west central and/or northwestern Kansas. These convergence areas
at the surface will foster development of surface-based
thunderstorms in the 20-22Z time frame just about anywhere across
far east-central/southeast Colorado and/or western Kansas. The NAM12
shows a band of enhanced mid level flow from the west-northwest
across eastern Colorado and western Kansas of 28 to 34 knots
(500mb)...providing ample enough deep layer shear for supercell
structures with the strongest discrete convection. Any supercell
storms which develop would move almost due south given the mid level
flow direction out of the west-northwest. It is unclear how long
discrete thunderstorm phase will last, but back on Sunday there was
a supercell storm that rolled south for 4+ hours (eastern Oklahoma
Panhandle into the northeastern Texas Panhandle) before becoming
absorbed by other convection and transitioning to an MCS. The
CAPE/Shear profile does not look all that dissimilar from the
Sunday event. Should a supercell storm form and thrive in this
environment, maximum hail size of tennis balls will be possible
(local research /Large Hail Parameter/ in the upper single digits
also supports this maximum hail size). The thinking is that any
such hail event of that size would be very isolated and probably
brief with many of the hail reports being half dollar to 2-inch in
diameter. We increased POPs to 60 percent and included "Heavy
Rain" in the grids given the continued very moist environment and
impressive QPF signals from the WRF high- resolution models...as
well as the ECMWF. POPs may need to be increased further (to
categorical/80+) later on today as mesoscale details emerge.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A weak upper level ridge is progged to move through the Rockies
Wednesday, then through the Plains Thursday before exiting stage
right on Friday. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is
expected to move into the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West
Wednesday and Thursday then into the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains Friday into this weekend. A trough of low pressure at the
surface will intensify across eastern Colorado as this feature
approaches bringing southerly winds to western Kansas through the
weekend. An exiting MCS may bring scattered thunderstorms to south
central Kansas Wednesday morning but should exit the area by noon. A
slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night, otherwise expect mostly cloudy
skies. Clouds decrease in coverage Thursday with partly cloudy skies
expected through Saturday. A chance of thunderstorms will then be
possible across northern Kansas and the I-70 corridor Saturday night
as lift increases due to an upper level shortwave moving through
across Nebraska. Otherwise expect a slight increase in cloud cover.
Upper level ridging looks to build into the southern Rockies by the
beginning of next week. This should suppress any significant weather
across western Kansas with partly cloudy skies. Highs throughout the
extended period start out in the upper 80s Wednesday with lower 90s
expected Thursday through the weekend. Highs in the mid to upper 90s
are possible early next week. Lows start out in the upper 60s
Thursday morning with lower 70s anticipated through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A small mesoscale convective system (MCS) will affect GCK and DDC
terminals through 08Z, but otherwise VFR conditions will prevail
with light winds overnight. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to
develop by mid afternoon across much of west-central and southwest
Kansas, and in the TAF will forecast a 6-hr period of PROB30
thunderstorms for DDC, GCK, HYS 21Z to 03Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 65 87 67 / 60 60 20 30
GCK 85 64 87 67 / 60 60 20 30
EHA 84 64 90 66 / 60 50 20 30
LBL 87 64 90 68 / 60 60 20 30
HYS 80 64 85 67 / 40 40 20 30
P28 86 68 87 69 / 40 60 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
327 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2014
...Updated long term section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
Another MCS night likely across far western Kansas. There is isolated
weak thunderstorms developing across south central Kansas this afternoon
as well. Have the highest pops along and west of Garden City to Liberal,
although the most recent HRRR propagates the MCS farther east. Something
to watch and update ESTF grids based on reality rather than model output
solutions. There could be some severe weather across far western Kansas
as meso analyzed SBCAPES are near 2000 J/kg and 30 kt effective bulk
shear. Most probable threat is hail and winds along with heavy rainfall
as pwats remain just below the 75th percentile for a normal distribution.
Overnight minimums will be in the 60sF.
Another MCS likely tomorrow. Attempted to add some diurnal pop variability
with a minimum towards 18Z and maximum at the end of my period. Some
uncertainty in storm placement as convective allowing models are different
than the global models. Broad bushed pops at this point as pwats remain
high and the overall synoptic pattern is that which is conducive for
MCS`s. There could be some marginal severe weather again as instability is
moderate and bulk shear is more marginal. Highs in the 80sF.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A weak upper level ridge is progged to move through the Rockies
Wednesday, then through the Plains Thursday before exiting stage
right on Friday. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is
expected to move into the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West
Wednesday and Thursday then into the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains Friday into this weekend. A trough of low pressure at the
surface will intensify across eastern Colorado as this feature
approaches bringing southerly winds to western Kansas through the
weekend. An exiting MCS may bring scattered thunderstorms to south
central Kansas Wednesday morning but should exit the area by noon. A
slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night, otherwise expect mostly cloudy
skies. Clouds decrease in coverage Thursday with partly cloudy skies
expected through Saturday. A chance of thunderstorms will then be
possible across northern Kansas and the I-70 corridor Saturday night
as lift increases due to an upper level shortwave moving through
across Nebraska. Otherwise expect a slight increase in cloud cover.
Upper level ridging looks to build into the southern Rockies by the
beginning of next week. This should suppress any significant weather
across western Kansas with partly cloudy skies. Highs throughout the
extended period start out in the upper 80s Wednesday with lower 90s
expected Thursday through the weekend. Highs in the mid to upper 90s
are possible early next week. Lows start out in the upper 60s
Thursday morning with lower 70s anticipated through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A small mesoscale convective system (MCS) will affect GCK and DDC
terminals through 08Z, but otherwise VFR conditions will prevail
with light winds overnight. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to
develop by mid afternoon across much of west-central and southwest
Kansas, and in the TAF will forecast a 6-hr period of PROB30
thunderstorms for DDC, GCK, HYS 21Z to 03Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 65 87 67 / 40 50 20 30
GCK 85 64 87 67 / 40 50 20 30
EHA 84 64 90 66 / 40 50 20 30
LBL 87 64 90 68 / 40 50 20 30
HYS 82 64 85 67 / 20 40 20 30
P28 86 68 87 69 / 30 40 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
125 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2014
...Updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
Another MCS night likely across far western Kansas. There is isolated
weak thunderstorms developing across south central Kansas this afternoon
as well. Have the highest pops along and west of Garden City to Liberal,
although the most recent HRRR propagates the MCS farther east. Something
to watch and update ESTF grids based on reality rather than model output
solutions. There could be some severe weather across far western Kansas
as meso analyzed SBCAPES are near 2000 J/kg and 30 kt effective bulk
shear. Most probable threat is hail and winds along with heavy rainfall
as pwats remain just below the 75th percentile for a normal distribution.
Overnight minimums will be in the 60sF.
Another MCS likely tomorrow. Attempted to add some diurnal pop variability
with a minimum towards 18Z and maximum at the end of my period. Some
uncertainty in storm placement as convective allowing models are different
than the global models. Broad bushed pops at this point as pwats remain
high and the overall synoptic pattern is that which is conducive for
MCS`s. There could be some marginal severe weather again as instability is
moderate and bulk shear is more marginal. Highs in the 80sF.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
For Tuesday night, a weak upper level shortwave trough will be
moving across western Kansas with numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected as an MCS. At this time with weak wind shear and
instability the chances for severe do not look that promising. Have
upped precip chances. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s.
On Wednesday, more widely scattered thunderstorms are possible with
moderate instability mainly by late afternoon. The upper level winds
again look weak with severe thunderstorms not a good bet. Highs will
be in the mid to upper 80s.
For the period Thursday into next Monday, the best chance for more
scattered thunderstorms looks to be on Thursday with another weak
upper level wave. A stronger wave moves from the Pacific Northwest
and into the Northern Plains by the Weekend with the best chance for
thunderstorms mainly far north across I-70. Lows will be mild in the
upper 60s to lower 70s, with highs warming slowly from the upper 80s
into the low to mid 90s by the Weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A small mesoscale convective system (MCS) will affect GCK and DDC
terminals through 08Z, but otherwise VFR conditions will prevail
with light winds overnight. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to
develop by mid afternoon across much of west-central and southwest
Kansas, and in the TAF will forecast a 6-hr period of PROB30
thunderstorms for DDC, GCK, HYS 21Z to 03Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 65 87 67 / 40 50 20 30
GCK 85 64 87 67 / 40 50 20 30
EHA 84 64 90 66 / 40 50 30 30
LBL 87 64 90 68 / 40 50 30 30
HYS 82 64 85 67 / 20 40 20 30
P28 86 68 87 69 / 30 40 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
403 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE LARGER SCALE WEATHER FEATURES HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED IF NOT STRONGER IN MAGNITUDE. THE RESULT WILL
BE A WET DAY AROUND SE MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE MORNING AND LAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL
BE CONCERNED WITH THE PROGRESS OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO BORDER BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A DISTINCT JET MAX OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WHERE THE TROUGH IS PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
CANADIAN TROUGH/LOW. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET IS SETTING UP
TO SUPPORT ENHANCED LIFT ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THESE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES ARE WELL-ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS CONSISTING OF 850 MB DEWPOINT AROUND 13C,
700 MB DEWPOINT AROUND 5C, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2
INCHES. THE RESULT IS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT PRESS TIME WHICH WILL EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 00Z MODELS COLLECTIVELY HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON THE BULK MASS AND MOISTURE FIELDS...BUT THE NAM AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP ARE MORE THAN A SERVICEABLE REPRESENTATION OF
THE SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION SETTING UP PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM THROUGH BUFKIT ANALYSIS
INDICATE MBE VECTORS ALIGNED WITH THE MEAN FLOW...WHICH IS A HEAVY
RAINFALL SIGNATURE...BUT HIGH-RES RUNS OF THE HRRR AND WRF-NMM ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IS THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN IN THE GFS AND
ECMWF. THIS IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO HOLD OFF ON FLOOD HEADLINES FOR
NOW BUT PLAN TO HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF 1-2 INCH TOTALS AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH
THE DAY...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF SE MICHIGAN.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
TAKE THE RAIN SHIELD OUT OF SE MICHIGAN BY MID EVENING. THAT WILL
LEAVE THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH/LOW TO PIVOT SOUTHWARD DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL HELP DRY THINGS OUT FROM A RAINFALL PERSPECTIVE BUT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH WEAK GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTING
BOTH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE SAGINAW
VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DURING
THE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION WILL BE SLOW UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE PSEUDO ZONAL UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SOME FAIRLY BIG CHANGES IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. NWP IS NOW MORE
UNIFORM/LESS NOISY IN BRINGING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE
DAKOTAS DIRECTLY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER FAVORABLE ZONE OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS
ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP SHOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WITH JET
ENERGY THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THIS CONCURRENT FORCING SHOULD ALWAYS GIVE ONE
PAUSE AND CERTAINLY DOES HERE TOO. THE PROBLEM IS THE FORECASTED
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO BE STABLE WITH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION CENTERED BETWEEN 700-600MB. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO
BYPASS THIS FEATURE...WHICH WILL REQUIRE A HIGH AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE. NAM IS SUPPORTIVE OF THIS...BUT WITH IT/S HIGH BIAS
IT/S NOT EXACTLY A STRONG ENDORSEMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO DRY
HERE...AS THIS LOOKS LIKE A CALL FOR THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE 70S NORTH...TO NEAR 80 FOR
THE HIGH SFC PRESSURE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GLACIAL RIDGE.
STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RISES WILL THEN LEAD
TO STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. NWP SIGNAL
IN THE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THERE WILL ALSO BE A HEAVY COMPONENT
FROM THE STABLE LAKE AGGREGATE. DRY WEATHER WITH A MODERATING
AIRMASS SHOULD LEAD TO VERY FAVORABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN
EASTERLY FLOW TRAJECTORY SEEMS TO BE PLAYING SOME HAVOC WITH
FORECASTED SFC TEMPERATURES...BUT READINGS SHOULD PUSH 80 DEGREES
THURSDAY AND EXCEED 80 DEGREES BY FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK FOR THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AS A PAIR OF FRONTS WORK THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST
FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG A LINE FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE
ERIE...SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL VEER WINDS FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
WEDNESDAY...USHERING MODEST NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP WAVE
HEIGHTS IN CHECK.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1150 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014
//DISCUSSION...
SHRAS AND A FEW TSRAS WILL LIFT NORTH OF TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL LIMIT TEMPO
GROUPS TO 08Z SOUTH...10Z NORTH AND BRING SHRAS/TSRAS BACK IN THE
14Z-15Z TIME FRAME AS FORCING FROM APPROACHING COLD FRONT COINCIDES
WITH INCREASING BROADSCALE LIFT AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
AREA ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
CLEARING WILL THEN ENSUE LATE IN THE FORECAST AS THIS MAIN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EAST OF TH REGION.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5KFT BY TUESDAY MORNING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING KDTW TUESDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....DG
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
402 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SURROUNDING RADARS SHOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. EXPECT THE
CURRENT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND INTO THE
AREA BY DAYLIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND
THE 4KM WRF BOTH HAVE THE MAIN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE
HRRR BRINGS IN ANOTHER BAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT CHANCES
IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. SEVERAL
TIMES LATELY THERE HAVE BEEN MORE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE
HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE MUCAPE IS BEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT A LITTLE REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT THERE
COULD BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN TURN INTO A RAIN EVENT DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE
LONG TERM. THE ZONAL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATE. THIS WILL
HELP KICK UP PULSES OF ENERGY INTO THE HIGH/GREAT PLAINS THAT WILL
GIVE US A SHOT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST PERIODS OF THE LONG
TERM. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES IN AND THROUGH THE AREA...ALONG WITH AN INCREASED LOW-
LEVEL JET AND POTENTIAL STRONG CONVERGENCE NEAR THE NOSE OF THE JET
NEARBY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...JUDGING BY
SEVERE PARAMETERS...FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...BUT NARROWING DOWN A
DAY THAT IT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IS TOO DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY NOW.
TEMPERATURES APPEARED TO BE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINAL AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
337 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER. THIS INCLUDES THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
EAST WITH THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS LATER TODAY INTO EVENING. AFTER TONIGHT... A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OR FAR EASTERN PLAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK...BUT HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MONITORING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. EARLY
STAGES OF A DEVELOPING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX UNDERWAY
NORTHWEST OF TUCUMCARI THAT IS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE LATEST 13KM RAP
AND 03Z HRRR ADVERTISED IF NOT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. SHALLOW
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EASTWARD COUPLED WITH A BROAD REGION
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AIDING THIS EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT
THAT IS ALIGNED ALONG A NW-SE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH A
STRONG/WELL- DEFINED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT STRETCHING FROM
NORTH OF SANTA ROSA SEWD TOWARD THE LUBBOCK AREA. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/WX GRIDS BUT WILL LIKELY REVISIT JUST BEFORE
PUBLISHING.
TRENDS AFTER THIS MORNING/S CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WEAKENS AND/OR
EXITS TO THE EAST BETWEEN 13Z-15Z WILL BE MORE COMPLICATED... AS
WESTWARD-PUSHING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY REINFORCE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FIELDS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
REGARDLESS... ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WILL REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW AND WITH MID- LEVEL DRYING AND
SOME LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY NEED FOR
EXPANSION OF ISOLATED POPS EAST OF THE DIVIDE THE RIO GRANDE. DID
BEEF UP POPS FOR SC AREAS AS WELL AS THE FAR NE WHERE LOW LEVEL
WINDS MAY GRADUALLY BACK TO MORE EASTERLY LATE IN THE DAY
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THERE.
LESS ACTIVE TONIGHT INTO WED AM AS MID-LEVEL DRYING ADVANCES
EASTWARD BENEATH A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH LESS DEFINED
INDICATORS FOR LARGE SCALE UPWARD FORCING. EXPECT TO SEE A FAIRLY
WELL DEFINED SURFACE DRYLINE WED PM NEAR THE NM/TX LINE WITH A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER SE COLO. THE GFS DEVELOPS A WEAKER
SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH WOULD AGAIN FAVOR THE FAR NE
PLAINS FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT SEVERE BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS
TRENDING WAY DOWN SAVE FOR AREAS NEAR THE TX LINE AND POSSIBLY NE
CORNER. EVEN DRIER/LESS ACTIVE WITH INCREASED WINDINESS FOR THU
WITH AGAIN THE FOCUS FOR STORMS NEAR THE NM/TX LINE ALONG THE
DRYLINE. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SPREADS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY WITH DRYLINE REGIME
PERSISTING. 500MB HEIGHTS THEN REBOUND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
STRONGER RIDGE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD LOSE INFLUENCE OF
THE WESTERLIES BY MON/TUE...AND SIGNS THAT IT MAY PERSIST. KJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO TO MONDAY EXPECTED TODAY. BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WITH SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY THAN MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER SE COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND DRY AIR FROM
THE WEST BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY...SCOURING OUT MORE GULF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE FAR NE PLAINS.
DRY WESTERLIES WIN OUT AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY AS LEE SFC TROUGH
STRENGTHENS FURTHER. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH HIGH HAINES VALUES AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION
RATES. WEST WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE A POSSIBILITY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PRIMARILY FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE FINALLY LOSE THE WESTERLIES
ALOFT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOUR CORNERS HIGH BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN AZ AND SW NM
SUNDAY...THEN OVER CENTRAL NM MONDAY. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAY DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. MODELS HINTING THAT MONSOON MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO SEEP
NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. 33
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
GENERAL WLY FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS PUSHED WESTWARD AND
INTO THE RGV BUT NOT AS PLENTIFUL AS NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER WHERE
AT LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH POSSIBLY 12Z. LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS TO PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS AND INTO THE RGV
THROUGH 12Z WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...THOUGH NOT INDICATED IN KLVS
TAF ATTM. EXPECT ISOLD CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN AND WRN HIGH TERRAIN BY 24/19Z...WITH MAINLY VIRGA WEST OF
THE RGV.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 92 53 93 54 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 88 41 89 41 / 5 5 0 0
CUBA............................ 89 48 90 48 / 5 5 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 89 45 90 48 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 84 44 84 45 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 90 46 89 46 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 86 50 86 51 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 93 49 94 50 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 82 41 83 42 / 10 5 5 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 84 58 86 58 / 20 5 0 0
PECOS........................... 80 54 83 54 / 30 10 5 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 81 45 82 45 / 20 10 5 5
RED RIVER....................... 73 41 75 42 / 30 20 10 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 76 39 78 39 / 30 20 10 10
TAOS............................ 84 46 86 46 / 10 10 5 5
MORA............................ 79 49 83 50 / 30 20 20 10
ESPANOLA........................ 90 52 92 53 / 5 5 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 85 56 86 56 / 10 5 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 89 54 91 54 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 90 63 91 64 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 93 64 94 65 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 95 61 96 62 / 5 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 94 63 95 64 / 10 5 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 95 57 96 58 / 5 5 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 93 62 95 64 / 10 5 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 98 67 101 66 / 5 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 89 58 90 58 / 20 5 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 90 58 90 59 / 10 5 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 86 49 88 51 / 20 5 5 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 84 54 87 56 / 30 10 5 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 88 59 90 59 / 20 5 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 90 63 92 64 / 10 5 5 5
RUIDOSO......................... 84 54 86 56 / 30 10 5 10
CAPULIN......................... 79 53 83 54 / 40 30 30 20
RATON........................... 85 53 88 53 / 30 30 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 85 52 89 53 / 30 20 20 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 82 51 86 51 / 30 20 10 10
CLAYTON......................... 86 60 90 61 / 50 40 20 20
ROY............................. 82 57 86 58 / 30 30 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 91 63 95 64 / 30 20 10 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 89 61 93 62 / 20 10 5 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 92 65 97 65 / 30 30 10 20
CLOVIS.......................... 87 63 93 63 / 20 30 10 20
PORTALES........................ 89 64 94 66 / 20 30 10 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 89 64 94 65 / 20 20 10 10
ROSWELL......................... 94 67 99 67 / 20 10 10 10
PICACHO......................... 89 61 93 62 / 30 10 5 10
ELK............................. 84 59 87 61 / 30 10 5 10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
150 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ANTECEDENT DRY WEATHER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT. FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY
LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY SUMMER NORMALS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT TUESDAY...I`VE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND REMOVED
MENTION OF OVERNIGHT THUNDER WITH THIS UPDATE. WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...HOWEVER EXAMINATION OF
00Z BUF ALB AND DTX RAOBS REVEALS AN AIRMASS WITH NO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THAT IS LIKELY ACCOMPANYING THE AREA OF SHOWERS NOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LAKE ONTARIO. THUS FELT JUSTIFIED IN
REMOVING MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
FEEL THAT THE HRRR AND BTV-4 HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON PRESENT AREA
OF SHOWERS...AND BASED ON THESE DATA HAVE ALSO INDICATED SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWER WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND REST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TOWARDS MORNING.
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID NIGHT COMPARED TO PRIOR
EVENINGS WITH DEWPOINTS ON THE RISE AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT MONDAY...INCLEMENT 36-48 HOUR STRETCH OF WEATHER
THEN EXPECTED DURING TUE/WED AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTHEAST AND A
SLOWLY PROGRESSING COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION.
MODELS GENERALLY ON BOARD SHOWING THE FRONT SLOWING AS IT
PROGRESSES INTO NY/NEW ENGLAND AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. OF COURSE THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AS SOLUTIONS
HAVE A VARIETY OF IDEAS ON WHERE BEST FORCING SETS UP AND THE
DEGREE TO WHICH IT DRIVES THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.
COORDINATION WITH WPC SUGGESTS A BLENDED APPROACH THE BEST ROUTE
AT THIS POINT...WHICH WILL ACT TO DAMPEN THE MORE ROBUST
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS UNTIL WE CAN GET A BETTER GAGE
ON HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION (PWATS 1-75 TO 2.00 IN) PRIOR IDEA OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL STILL APPEARS QUITE REASONABLE AT THIS POINT...THOUGH
WITH RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD AND/OR RIVER FLOODING APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT PBL
INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY MODEST AT BEST AND WITH PREVALENCE OF
CLOUD COVER THIS SHOULD INHIBIT HIGHER-END UPDRAFT STRENGTH BY AND
LARGE. HIGHS TOMORROW SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A TAD COOLER IN
THE SLV...THEN GENERALLY 70S FOR WEDNESDAY WITH PREVALENCE OF
CLOUDS/PCPN. LOWS REMAINING MILD TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S...LOCALLY NEAR 70 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FRONT CLEARS SLOWLY OFFSHORE WITH ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING WEST TO EAST THROUGH TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES
SEASONABLE...MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE LONG TERM PATTERN WL FEATURE
BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS THE SE CONUS BY THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROGRESSIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. IN ADDITION...A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS LIKELY BY
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH THE CHCS FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS.
FOR THURSDAY...HAVE NOTED A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF SFC BOUNDARY
ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING MID LVL RH. WL
HOLD ONTO A CHC OF SHOWERS ACRS THE CT RIVER VALLEY/PARTS OF
CENTRAL VT THRU 15Z...BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE FA. SFC HIGH
PRES AND BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WL KEEP FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY DRY WITH
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS EMBEDDED 5H VORT RIDES ACRS THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE...BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING...SO WL
KEEP POPS <15% ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS START BTWN 10-12C FOR
THURS/FRIDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE L70S MTNS TO NEAR 80F
WARMER VALLEYS. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLW WL HELP ADVECT WARMER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARMING BTWN 14-16C. THIS WL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. BOTH GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW BUILDING RIDGE ACRS
THE EASTERN CONUS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARM/HUMID AIRMASS
BUILDING ACRS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD...BUT CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. FIRST ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THIS MORNING...BUT
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5000 FEET AND NO OBSTRUCTION TO
VISIBILITIES IS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 14Z AND 20Z...THEN SHOWERS RETURN ALONG WITH
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AGAIN
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY...BUT
VISIBILITIES COULD LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 00Z. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS OUR TAF SITES THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY. THESE
STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 40
MPH. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WL BE LIKELY IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW. SOME PATCHY FOG WL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ON TUES INTO WEDS...ESPECIALLY TAF SITES THAT
RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS AFTN/EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACRS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES.
A CLRING TREND DEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY...WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT PATCHY FOG/BR POSSIBLE BTWN 08-12Z
EACH MORNING AT SLK/MPV.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...EVENSON/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
111 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ANTECEDENT DRY WEATHER SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT. FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY
LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE EARLY SUMMER NORMALS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT TUESDAY...I`VE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND REMOVED
MENTION OF OVERNIGHT THUNDER WITH THIS UPDATE. WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...HOWEVER EXAMINATION OF
00Z BUF ALB AND DTX RAOBS REVEALS AN AIRMASS WITH NO ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THAT IS LIKELY ACCOMPANYING THE AREA OF SHOWERS NOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LAKE ONTARIO. THUS FELT JUSTIFIED IN
REMOVING MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.
FEEL THAT THE HRRR AND BTV-4 HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON PRESENT AREA
OF SHOWERS...AND BASED ON THESE DATA HAVE ALSO INDICATED SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWER WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND REST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TOWARDS MORNING.
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID NIGHT COMPARED TO PRIOR
EVENINGS WITH DEWPOINTS ON THE RISE AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 349 PM EDT MONDAY...INCLEMENT 36-48 HOUR STRETCH OF WEATHER
THEN EXPECTED DURING TUE/WED AS WARM FRONT CLEARS NORTHEAST AND A
SLOWLY PROGRESSING COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION.
MODELS GENERALLY ON BOARD SHOWING THE FRONT SLOWING AS IT
PROGRESSES INTO NY/NEW ENGLAND AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. OF COURSE THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AS SOLUTIONS
HAVE A VARIETY OF IDEAS ON WHERE BEST FORCING SETS UP AND THE
DEGREE TO WHICH IT DRIVES THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.
COORDINATION WITH WPC SUGGESTS A BLENDED APPROACH THE BEST ROUTE
AT THIS POINT...WHICH WILL ACT TO DAMPEN THE MORE ROBUST
INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS UNTIL WE CAN GET A BETTER GAGE
ON HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION (PWATS 1-75 TO 2.00 IN) PRIOR IDEA OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL STILL APPEARS QUITE REASONABLE AT THIS POINT...THOUGH
WITH RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD AND/OR RIVER FLOODING APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT PBL
INSTABILITY IS GENERALLY MODEST AT BEST AND WITH PREVALENCE OF
CLOUD COVER THIS SHOULD INHIBIT HIGHER-END UPDRAFT STRENGTH BY AND
LARGE. HIGHS TOMORROW SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A TAD COOLER IN
THE SLV...THEN GENERALLY 70S FOR WEDNESDAY WITH PREVALENCE OF
CLOUDS/PCPN. LOWS REMAINING MILD TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
60S...LOCALLY NEAR 70 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FRONT CLEARS SLOWLY OFFSHORE WITH ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS ENDING WEST TO EAST THROUGH TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES
SEASONABLE...MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE LONG TERM PATTERN WL FEATURE
BUILDING MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS THE SE CONUS BY THE
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROGRESSIVE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. IN ADDITION...A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS LIKELY BY
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH THE CHCS FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS.
FOR THURSDAY...HAVE NOTED A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF SFC BOUNDARY
ACRS OUR EASTERN CWA...ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING MID LVL RH. WL
HOLD ONTO A CHC OF SHOWERS ACRS THE CT RIVER VALLEY/PARTS OF
CENTRAL VT THRU 15Z...BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE FA. SFC HIGH
PRES AND BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WL KEEP FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY DRY WITH
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS EMBEDDED 5H VORT RIDES ACRS THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE...BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING...SO WL
KEEP POPS <15% ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS START BTWN 10-12C FOR
THURS/FRIDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE L70S MTNS TO NEAR 80F
WARMER VALLEYS. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLW WL HELP ADVECT WARMER AIR
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
WARMING BTWN 14-16C. THIS WL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. BOTH GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW BUILDING RIDGE ACRS
THE EASTERN CONUS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARM/HUMID AIRMASS
BUILDING ACRS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES
AND SUBSEQUENTLY PASSES THROUGH REGION. HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN VFR. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS FROM
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...BUT ACTIVITY
WILL DECAY OVER TIME. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM 06Z-15Z ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK TAF SITES AND 10Z-15Z IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL
VERMONT. RUT WILL LIKELY SEE NO IMPACT AT ALL. EVEN IN RAIN
SHOWERS...CONDITIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST LATER TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN (AND
POTENTIAL BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS) AND GUSTY WINDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH TIME...ESPECIALLY AT BTV WHERE GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AND UP TO 27 KNOTS LATER TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE GUSTS WILL TOP OUT 18-23 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS OUR TAF SITES THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY. THESE
STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 40
MPH. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WL BE LIKELY IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW. SOME PATCHY FOG WL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ON TUES INTO WEDS...ESPECIALLY TAF SITES THAT
RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE LIKELY ON WEDS AFTN/EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACRS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES.
A CLRING TREND DEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY...WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT PATCHY FOG/BR POSSIBLE BTWN 08-12Z
EACH MORNING AT SLK/MPV.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
337 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS IN THE DAYS
AHEAD...ACCOMPANIED BY DEVELOPMENT OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH. THIS
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES RISING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
OF THE AREA IS NOW LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND IS DISCERNIBLE WITH SHOWERS IGNITING ALONG IT
WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS FEATURE
WILL INFLUENCE NEAR TERM WEATHER BRINGING INCREASING POPS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL
INTERACT WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WHICH MAY SHIFT CONVECTION
FARTHER WEST IN THE MIDDLE AND LATE AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE
IS POOLED ACROSS SC AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS WILL RESIDE
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY.
OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AS PRECIPITABLE
WATERS RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES WITH SOMEWHAT OF A SLUGGISH STORM
MOTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME
OVER CONFINED LOCATIONS. STORMS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY SOUTH TO
NORTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE JUNE.
AS RETURN FLOW GEARS UP...MINIMUMS INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN BALMY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYBREAK JUNE 25TH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
KEEP THE PERIOD ACTIVE WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH BEING
PROMINENT FEATURES. THE REMAINS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA LATER WED INTO THU BUT THIS FEATURE WILL BE VERY WEAK BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE AREA...LACKING ANY MID LEVEL PUSH. THE BOUNDARY
MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT AND AS A
RESULT WILL CARRY MENTIONABLE POP WED INTO THU. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE DEEP MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WED LINGER OVER 2
INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD
TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION. PROFILES DO NOT SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE THREAT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM.
STORM MOTIONS AROUND 10 KT WILL INCREASE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL.
PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE ON THU WITH MID
LEVEL FLOW TURNING WESTERLY. THIS WILL CAUSE A DROP IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO FOR
LATE JUNE. MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL AFFECT STORM COVERAGE BUT STILL
THINK CHC POP IS WARRANTED. AS IS THE CASE ON WED THE SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE BUT STORM MOTIONS COULD BE WELL UNDER
10 MPH. ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE IS LESS THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL
AGAIN POSE A FLOODING THREAT.
HIGHS WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO...LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT ON FRI WILL TRANSITION
TO GRADUAL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND START OF
NEXT WEEK. WEAK NATURE OF THE RIDGE LATE IN THE PERIOD LIMITS AMOUNT
OF SUBSIDENCE/DRYING...IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD. VALUES WILL RANGE FROM
1.7 TO 2 INCHES FRI THROUGH MON...ABOVE CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AT THE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP WARM MOIST AIR
INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND UNDER THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIMITED
CAPPING WILL KEEP SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH ACTIVE EACH DAY.
PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE LATER IN THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO SOME
REDUCTION IN COVERAGE AND POP WILL SHOW A GENERAL DECREASING TREND
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WITH RAIN DURING THE LATE EVENING VISIBILITIES WILL
START TO COME DOWN AT LBT TO MVFR WITH THE OTHER TERMINALS AT VFR
FOR NOW. HAVE MENTION OF MVFR AT OTHER TERMINALS AS LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OFF THE COAST WORK THEIR WAY TO THE COAST. HIGH RESOLUTION
WRF AND HRRR SHOW PRECIPITATION WORKING ONTO THE COAST OF SC AND
MOVING INTO THE MYRTLES BEFORE SUNRISE AND INTO ILM AFTER SUNRISE.
MODELS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON LAST NIGHTS PRECIPITATION SO WILL PAY
ATTENTION AND INTRODUCE THE PRECIPITATION. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE
FROM THE 00Z TAFS AND HAVE ALSO MENTION CONVECTION ACROSS THE
INLAND TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. POPS HAVE INCREASED
FROM THESE MODELS AND MOIST FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDRY TO OUR SOUTH AND A WEAK VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD ALL INTERACT TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TERMINALS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH NO REAL GOOD FEEL ON WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR. WINDS WILL
VEER FROM THE E TO THE SE ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE
MORNING WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT REACHING THE INLAND TERMINALS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ENHANCING LIFT AND MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...SHOWERS WILL DOT THE WATERS AS WINDS VEER
TO SE AND S-SW TONIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH COULD TRIP
OFF A FEW TSTMS OVER THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. REMEMBER
THAT WINDS AS WELL AS WAVES ARE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.
NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FEET IN A MIX OF E-ESE
WAVES 2 FT EVERY 5-6 SECONDS...AND ESE WAVES 1.5 FEET EVERY 9-10
SECONDS. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED GUSTS TO
20 KT INSHORE BETWEEN 3PM-6PM.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS WED AS PIEDMONT TROUGH
STRENGTHENS AND BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS WILL BE A SOLID 15 KT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20 KT LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU AND
DISSIPATES. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT AND SPEEDS WILL DROP
CLOSER TO 10 KT ON THU. SEA BREEZE WILL AGAIN DEVELOP WITH SOLID 15
KT POSSIBLE NEAR SHORE. SEAS BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT WED INTO WED NIGHT
WILL DROP BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT ON THU.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 TO 15 KT EACH DAY. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY SHORT PERIOD SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MAC/MJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
240 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO OUR REGION FROM OFFSHORE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE AWAY TODAY...AND YIELD TO A SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM MONDAY...
CONVECTION IS STILL DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ADVANCING SEABREEZE THIS EVENING... OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN SANDHILLS.
HOWEVER... IT IS BEGINNING TO WANE IN COVERAGE ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN REACHES THIS EVENING.... WHICH MATCHES UP WELL
WITH THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE BEST LINGERING
INSTABILITY REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.... WHERE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THE LONGEST... LATE EVENING/VERY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO RETREAT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL YIELD A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC FIRST THEN
SPREADING EASTWARD. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST (NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR NORTHEAST PIEDMONT) MAY SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT THOUGH. MEANWHILE... THE MID LEVEL S/W RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT... POSSIBLY ALLOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO/ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR IS SHOWING THIS FEATURE... COUPLED
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW... HELPING TO
DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT.
GIVEN THE TIME OF NIGHT WITH THE RAP SHOWING FURTHER STABILIZATION
ACROSS OUR AREA AND TO THE WEST... CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW OF SEEING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT (WHEN THE RAP AND HRRR
SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING). THUS... WILL JUST ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO OUR WESTERN PIEDMONT AT THIS TIME IN THE 04-11Z TIME
FRAME. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE NEAR THE MID 60S
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 70 FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IT`S WEAK SURFACE FRONT
REFLECTION WILL PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE MS VALLEY AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA...WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EJECTING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COULD POSSIBLY PROVIDE SOME
WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT IN CONCERT WITH INCREASINGLY BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN OVERSPREADS THE AREA WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. HIGHEST POPS
SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...LOWEST IN THE
NORTHEAST. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST
DESTABILIZATION OF 1000-1500 J/KG...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE TOO
LOW/ISOLATED TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE HWO.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. LOWS 68 TO 72.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL TREND
DOWNWARD ON THURSDAY...AND REMAIN BELOW CLIMO ON FRIDAY...AS THE SFC
BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING BY TO OUR
EAST AND NORTHEAST (24 HOUR CLIMO POP FOR CENTRAL NC IS AROUND 30
PERCENT). RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY
WILL BE THURSDAY...BECAUSE BY LATE FRIDAY...THE SFC TROUGH WILL
BECOME REFOCUSED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND PWAT WILL BE BACK ON THE
INCREASE.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE TO OR ABOVE
CLIMO...AS A BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY REMAINS INVOF OUR CWA...AND AMPLE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN POOLED ACROSS THE AREA. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT DURING THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...BULK SHEAR ISN`T THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY MAY BE PLENTIFUL AND WE CAN NEVER RULE OUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE TSTM THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BULK SHEAR PARAMETERS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME.
AS FOR TEMPS...LATEST MEX SHOWS TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS NEAR 70.
HOWEVER...FORECAST LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
(1410-1420M)...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE FOR THIS TIME. TEMPS SHOULD TREND COOLER LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN
CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUESDAY...
SSE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...IN RETURN FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE...WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SCT TO BKN MVFR RANGE
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...MAINLY AT KINT/KGSO/KFAY/KRDU...WHILE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KRWI DUE
TO LOCAL/RIVER BASIN/DRAINAGE EFFECTS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY AREAS NEAR THE SC BORDER...INCLUDING
IN THE VICINITY OF KFAY...THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: STRATUS PROBABLE LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED. A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS AREA-WIDE ON WED AND FRI...WITH LESSER
CHANCES...MAINLY AT EASTERN TERMINALS...ON THU.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
223 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO OUR REGION FROM OFFSHORE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE AWAY TODAY...AND YIELD TO A SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 PM MONDAY...
CONVECTION IS STILL DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ADVANCING SEABREEZE THIS EVENING... OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN SANDHILLS.
HOWEVER... IT IS BEGINNING TO WANE IN COVERAGE ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN REACHES THIS EVENING.... WHICH MATCHES UP WELL
WITH THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE BEST LINGERING
INSTABILITY REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.... WHERE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THE LONGEST... LATE EVENING/VERY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO RETREAT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL YIELD A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC FIRST THEN
SPREADING EASTWARD. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST (NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN AND FAR NORTHEAST PIEDMONT) MAY SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT THOUGH. MEANWHILE... THE MID LEVEL S/W RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT... POSSIBLY ALLOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO/ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR IS SHOWING THIS FEATURE... COUPLED
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW... HELPING TO
DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT.
GIVEN THE TIME OF NIGHT WITH THE RAP SHOWING FURTHER STABILIZATION
ACROSS OUR AREA AND TO THE WEST... CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW OF SEEING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT (WHEN THE RAP AND HRRR
SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING). THUS... WILL JUST ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO OUR WESTERN PIEDMONT AT THIS TIME IN THE 04-11Z TIME
FRAME. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE NEAR THE MID 60S
NORTHEAST TO NEAR 70 FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IT`S WEAK SURFACE FRONT
REFLECTION WILL PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE MS VALLEY AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA...WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EJECTING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COULD POSSIBLY PROVIDE SOME
WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT IN CONCERT WITH INCREASINGLY BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN OVERSPREADS THE AREA WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. HIGHEST POPS
SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...LOWEST IN THE
NORTHEAST. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST
DESTABILIZATION OF 1000-1500 J/KG...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE TOO
LOW/ISOLATED TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE HWO.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S SOUTH. LOWS 68 TO 72.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR PRECIP IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST OVER
THE REGION...PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. THE BEST
FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT GIVEN THE BETTER (ALBEIT
WEAK) SUPPORT ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...LIKELY
PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...AS WELL AS WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE RATHER LIMITED DESPITE THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS... LEADING TO DECREASED CONFIDENCE.
OVERALL...RIDGING ALOFT (ALTHOUGH RATHER FLAT) IS PROGGED TO BUILD
BACK OVER THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING TO OCCUR. NEVERTHELESS...MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES...ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS. DETAILS IN THE MID/UPPER PATTERN
BECOMES EVEN MORE UNCLEAR FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
NEVERTHELESS PRECIP CHANCES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK GIVEN THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME AIRMASS.
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TO START THE
PERIOD WITH LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 AM TUESDAY...
SSE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...IN RETURN FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE...WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SCT TO BKN MVFR RANGE
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING...MAINLY AT KINT/KGSO/KFAY/KRDU...WHILE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KRWI DUE
TO LOCAL/RIVER BASIN/DRAINAGE EFFECTS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY AREAS NEAR THE SC BORDER...INCLUDING
IN THE VICINITY OF KFAY...THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: STRATUS PROBABLE LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED. A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS AREA-WIDE ON WED AND FRI...WITH LESSER
CHANCES...MAINLY AT EASTERN TERMINALS...ON THU.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BSD
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
147 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS IN THE DAYS
AHEAD...ACCOMPANIED BY DEVELOPMENT OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH. THIS
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES RISING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH IMPETUS TO KEEP
THE CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE SAME WAS TRUE FOR THE
LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...AND YET SOME CONVECTION MANAGED TO
PERSIST. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST INTO TUE MORNING.
LOOKING AT SATELLITE...RADAR AND PRESSURE TRENDS AND IT LOOKS LIKE
THE RIDGE...CENTERED TO OUR NE...HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO MOVE OUT.
MOISTURE RETURN HAS ALREADY BEGUN AS FRONT TO OUR S HAS ALL BUT
DISSIPATED. THERE HAS BEEN PLENTY OF HEAVY RAIN WELL TO OUR S TODAY
AND EVEN ACROSS OUR AREA...EVEN AT THIS HOUR...THERE IS SOME HEAVY
RAIN FALLING ACROSS SMALL PORTIONS OF ROBESON...DILLON AND MARLBORO
COUNTIES.
SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS AND
INDICATING ISOLATED CONVECTION BUILDING BACK TO THE N WHILE ALSO
MOVING IN FROM OFF THE WATER OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE ACCEPTED THESE
TRENDS AND ADJUSTED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...
THERE WILL BE MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TONIGHT WHICH WILL
NOT ALLOW FOR AS MUCH COOLING AS WE EARLIER THOUGHT. THUS...LOWS
HAVE BEEN RAISED TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH UPPER 70S AT THE
BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...MOISTURE FOCUSED ALONG LINGERING FRONT TO
THE SOUTH WILL RETURN NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND DEEPER RETURN FLOW SETS UP BETWEEN DEVELOPING LEE
SIDE TROUGH INLAND AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFF SHORE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THIS DEEPER MOISTER RETURN FLOW WILL BRING PCP WATER VALUES
UP AROUND 2 INCHES BY TUES AFTN. THIS WILL LEAD TO GREATER
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA WITH BETTER CHC OF LOCALIZED SHWRS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ALONG CONVERGENT SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY...PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND ANY OTHER BOUNDARIES THAT
DEVELOP. THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE MAY HOLD OVER AREA THROUGH TUES
BEFORE SLIPPING OFF SHORE BY WED. THIS SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT
STRONGER CONVECTION THROUGH TUES. GFS SHOWS A MINOR PERTURBATION
RIDING THROUGH EARLIER ON WED AND THEN SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT FOR
WED AFTN. ALWAYS TOUGH TO TIME THESE FINE FEATURES. FOR NOW THINKING
IS THAT WE SHOULD SEE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER INLAND AND SC AS
WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SE-S THROUGH THE DAY ON TUES. BY WED A
BETTER SW-W RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO GREATER CHC
OF SHWRS/TSTMS CLOSER TO THE COAST INITIALLY IN A MORE PINNED SEA
BREEZE AND THEN CARRIED EAST INTO OUR AREA LATER IN THE DAY FROM
PIEDMONT TROUGH ACTIVITY. OVERALL EXPECT GREATER CHC OF CONVECTION
THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE GREATER NE ON SHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER NEAR THE COAST ON TUES WITH TEMPS WARMEST OVER
INLAND SC...UP AROUND 90. BY WED...THE W-SW COMPONENT TO FLOW WILL
HELP TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD TEMPS CLOSER TO 90.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...PERSISTENCE THE RULE DURING THE EXTENDED AS
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL FLOW
PRODUCE WARM AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. THE BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE
WILL CONTINUOUSLY PUMP WARM/MOIST SW RETURN FLOW INTO THE
CAROLINAS...WHILE ZONAL-FLOW-TRANSITIONING-TO-RIDGING ALOFT WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. MEX NUMBERS FLUCTUATE BY ONLY 1-2
DEGREES THE ENTIRE LONG TERM...HENCE THE PERSISTENCE FORECAST...AND
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE FOR HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S
EACH DAY. ADDITIONALLY...THU/FRI WILL FEATURE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS...BEFORE SOME SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEGINS TO LIMIT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR THE WKND. WILL NOTE THAT THE ECMWF/GFS
DIVERGE BY 180 DEGREES IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WKND AS THE
FORMER DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS A NEW
SOLUTION AND NOT SUPPORTED...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE EXTENDED
MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WITH RAIN DURING THE LATE EVENING VISIBILITIES WILL
START TO COME DOWN AT LBT TO MVFR WITH THE OTHER TERMINALS AT VFR
FOR NOW. HAVE MENTION OF MVFR AT OTHER TERMINALS AS LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OFF THE COAST WORK THEIR WAY TO THE COAST. HIGH RESOLTION
WRF AND HRRR SHOW PRECIPITATION WORKING ONTO THE COAST OF SC AND
MOVING INTO THE MYRTLES BEFORE SUNRISE AND INTO ILM AFTER SUNRISE.
MODELS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON LAST NIGHTS PRECIPITATION SO WILL PAY
ATTENTION AND INTRODUCE THE PRECIPITATION. THIS IS A BIG CHNAGE
FROM THE 00Z TAFS AND HAVE ALSO MENTION CONVECTION ACROSS THE
INLAND TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. POPS HAVE INCREASED
FROM THESE MODELS AND MOIST FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDRY TO OUR SOUTH AND A WEAK VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD ALL INTERACT TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TERMINALS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH NO REAL GOOD FEEL ON WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR. WINDS WILL
VEER FROM THE E TO THE SE ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE
MORNING WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT REACHING THE INLAND TERMINALS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ENHANCING LIFT AND MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NE WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL BE E TO ESE
INTO TUE MORNING. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS...SUSTAINED UP TO 15 KT
LATE THIS EVE...WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS BY MORNING.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST
AS PIEDMONT TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA
HIGH REMAINS OFF TO THE EAST. ON SHORE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW
OVER THE WATERS EARLY TUE WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH MID WEEK. GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE TUES WITH LAND/SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS
AND OVERALL SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KTS OR LESS. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
INCREASE CLOSER TO 15 KT LATER ON WED INTO WED NIGHT AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST AND MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH
INLAND. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT TUE WILL INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT BY WED NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN ITS
LOCAL INFLUENCE INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS CREATES PERSISTENT SW WINDS
OF 10-15 KTS WITH LITTLE FLUCTUATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A 10 SEC SE
GROUND SWELL WILL SLOWLY AMPLIFY ON THE PROLONGED FETCH AROUND THIS
HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE 2-3 FT SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY
CREATED VIA 5 SEC SW WIND WAVES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD/MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MAC/MJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1142 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR
VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE AT KFYV/KXNA. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE BY 14-15Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
PRECIP HAS FOR THE MOST PART SHIFTED EAST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING.
THE REMAINING FEW SHOWERS WERE LOCATED ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ACROSS THE
REST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SKIES WERE CLEARING OUT WITH LIGHT
WINDS OBSERVED. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST LOCAL IN-HOUSE
MODEL AND THE HRRR CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN COLORADO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE REGION. THUS...WILL NOT CARRY POPS AFTER 06Z.
THE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
HOWEVER CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO BE POSSIBLE AFTER
THE RECENT RAINS. HAVE EXTENDED THE FOG POTENTIAL A BIT FURTHER
WEST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT LOOK TO
BE COOLER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS AND HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW
TWEAKS FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 63 89 67 88 / 10 10 20 30
FSM 65 89 67 90 / 20 10 20 30
MLC 64 89 68 89 / 10 10 20 30
BVO 61 88 64 86 / 10 10 20 30
FYV 60 85 61 85 / 20 10 20 30
BYV 61 85 61 86 / 20 10 20 30
MKO 62 88 66 87 / 10 10 20 30
MIO 61 86 64 86 / 10 10 20 30
F10 63 88 67 87 / 10 10 20 30
HHW 66 89 69 90 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
411 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN PLACE
FROM SULPHUR SPRINGS TO BURLESON TO BRECKENRIDGE. THERE WERE WEAK
GRADIENTS OF BOTH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WITH COOLER VALUES LOCATED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LOOKING AT THE
GRADIENT OF EITHER TEMPERATURE OR DEW POINT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THIS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OF THETA-E WITH A CHANGE
OF ALMOST 8 KELVIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AS A
RESULT...THINK THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY. IT MAY HOLD SOME
IDENTITY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL IF SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ACCURATE. THE 07Z RAP INDICATED THAT THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDS UP TO THE 850 MB LEVEL WHERE THE THETA-E GRADIENT IS EVEN
MORE PRONOUNCED...SHOWING A THETA-E CHANGE OF 12-16 KELVIN ALONG
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE MAIN POINT OF THIS ANALYSIS
IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS AS THROUGH IT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
REMAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA AS WE APPROACH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
OF THE DAY. IF IT STILL EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON...IT COULD BE A BIG
PLAYER IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION TODAY.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TODAY...ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS IMPORTANT FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY AS MOST GUIDANCE ADVERTISES QPF ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SOMETIME
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF WHEN THIS QPF
SHOWS UP IS THE KEY DIFFERENCE AMONGST THE MODELS. MANY OF THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW QPF OR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. IF
THIS OCCURS...THE CONVECTION THAT IS INITIATED WILL PROBABLY BE
RELATIVELY WEAK IN NATURE AND MAY BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT OVER THE BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED A NICE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. IT`S HARD TO SAY WHETHER THIS
CONVECTION WOULD BE ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE BOUNDARY OR NOT IF IT
DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. IF NOTHING ELSE...IT WILL ADD CLOUDS OVER
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWING DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO
REDUCE THE IDENTITY OF THE BOUNDARY BY WARMING THE COOL SIDE AND
KEEPING THE WARM SIDE SHIELDED FROM SUNSHINE/HEATING. IT`S
PROBABLY FOR THIS REASON THAT MOST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
MEMBERS HAVE MORNING CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.
IF THERE IS LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...THIS BOUNDARY PROBABLY HAS A BETTER CHANCE AT INITIATING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS USUALLY FAIRLY RELIABLE WHEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SIGNAL OF
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG A COMMON BOUNDARY AROUND A COMMON
TIME. THEREFORE...THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE THAT
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING RATHER THAN HOLDING
OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ONLY REASON TO DOUBT SOME OF THE MODELS SHOWING THIS MORNING
CONVECTION IS THE LACK OF RESPONSE IN THE REST OF THE MASS FIELDS
WHERE THE QPF IS LOCATED. THAT IS...SOME POSITIVE QPF SHOWS UP
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THIS SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE...HOWEVER THERE
IS NO INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND NO LOW-LEVEL
RESPONSE IN THE WIND FIELDS. BRINGING MODEL LOGIC INTO THE REAL
WORLD...THAT`S LIKE SAYING...WE`RE GOING TO HAVE RAIN...BUT NO
CLOUDS. IT DOESN`T MAKE SENSE. AS A RESULT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE MODELS ARE SIMPLY PUTTING QPF OUT THERE BECAUSE THERE`S A
BOUNDARY AND WE HAVE SOME MOISTURE AND CAPE IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.
FOR MODELS THAT DO NOT SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...THOSE SOLUTIONS REALLY RAMP UP THE CAPE AND MOISTURE
POOLING SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE MODELS
INDICATE LOWER TO MID-70S DEW POINTS POOLING UP JUST SOUTH OF THE
DFW AREA THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN OVER 4000 J/KG OF CAPE.
GRANTED...THERE IS VERY WEAK WIND SHEAR...SO EVEN IF STORMS
DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THEY PROBABLY WILL NOT BE VERY
ORGANIZED. THAT SAID...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH 4000 J/KG OF
CAPE WILL GET BIG...FAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MICROBURSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT. ALSO...IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT DEVELOP THIS MORNING...THE BOUNDARY WILL
PROBABLY MOVE A BIT WITH THE WESTERN PART OF THE BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTH. IN THIS SCENARIO THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NEAR A BOWIE
TO GRAPEVINE TO EMORY LINE BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. WITH WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A COUPLE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON
JUST IN CASE THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT.
THIS FORECAST PROBLEM SHOULD AT LEAST BE FAIRLY EASY TO FIGURE OUT
TODAY...IF WE END UP WITH SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT
PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...WE HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE AT WASHING OUT OUR BOUNDARY...MAKING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LESS LIKELY. IF THERE IS BRIEF OR NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED
STRONG STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS IN THE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE TODAY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW TODAY WILL PLAY OUT. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST MODELS HAVE THIS BOUNDARY GETTING WASHED OUT BY
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR TONIGHT...IF WE GET A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY LINGERING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...IF NOTHING GETS GOING THIS AFTERNOON...OUR ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
CONSISTENTLY SHOW A SQUALL LINE ORGANIZING LATE TONIGHT. IF THE
SQUALL LINE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH...IT WILL CREATE ITS OWN MINI-
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT COULD PROPAGATE IT SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH TEXAS
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT AS GREAT AS
IT WAS FOR YESTERDAY MORNING...MAINLY BECAUSE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
SOMEWHAT LACKING IN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS THAT HELPS BALANCE COLD-POOL STRENGTH AND
REALLY HELPS LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS BECOME ORGANIZED INTO THEIR
OWN MINI-WEATHER SYSTEM. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR...THESE STORM COMPLEXES STILL BECOME QUITE STRONG WHERE THEY
ORIGINATE...BUT TEND TO LOSE THEIR COLD POOLS AND DISSIPATE WHEN
THEY BEGIN TO PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. BECAUSE OF THE
LACK OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...ONLY WENT WITH 30 POPS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ASSUMING
THIS PANS OUT...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ALSO...MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF A STRONGER THAN NORMAL SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST TOMORROW. AT LEAST THAT`S WHAT IT
LOOKS LIKE IN THE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS. AT ANY
RATE...WITH THE CONSISTENCY OF MODELS SHOWING QPF...WITH
CLOUDS...MOVING IN FROM THE GULF COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WENT
AHEAD AND KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE WEDNESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SORT OF MEANDER SOUTH AND JUST BECOME A GENERAL
WEAKNESS ALOFT STUCK IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGES TO OUR WEST AND
EAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY A BIT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SPREADING SOME FORCING
FOR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA. AS A RESULT...KEPT
HIGHEST POP CHANCES FOR THURSDAY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
AS THIS IS FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE AND STILL WELL WITHIN
THE MODEL CONSENSUS LOCATION OF THE COL/UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS AREA.
WE WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH LITTLE CAP IN PLACE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...SO KEPT
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A
STRONG WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARDS OVER THE
ROCKIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS
RESULTING IN LAYING THE NORTHERN MEXICO UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTH
TEXAS BY FRIDAY...AND HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT INDICATE THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STAY WEST RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT
WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE
GFS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND AS
RESULT WAS RELIED UPON HEAVILY IN THIS FORECAST. THE GFS HAS UPPER
LEVEL RIDING IN PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGING ONLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
DURING THIS PERIOD AS A RESULT. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND GRADUALLY
RAISED TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IF THIS VERIFIES...WE MAY
GET INTO OUR FIRST 100 DEGREE HIGHS HERE BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. THAT`S A LONG WAYS OUT OF COURSE...BUT THE PATTERN
LOOKS HOT AND DRY FOR NOW.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1140 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
/6Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT WITH AREA WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN MOST LOCATIONS. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT RESIDE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. ONE IS
VERY NEAR THE METROPLEX BASED ON EARLIER RADAR DATA...BUT THIS MAY
BECOME SO DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT THAT IT IS A NON PLAYER IN ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE OTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY IS
SOUTH OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS...JUST SOUTH OF WACO. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. IT IS RATHER DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT UPPER DISTURBANCE BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
WEST TEXAS AND IT MAKES SENSE THAT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
MODESTLY MOIST COMPARED TO THE LAST 24 HOURS...BUT IS STILL VERY
WEAKLY CAPPED...SO ANY FORCING WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY
MAY IGNITE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL HAVE A VCSH IN AT WACO FROM
11-16Z TO ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY. IF SHOWERS/STORMS DO DEVELOP
QUICKLY TONIGHT...THIS TIMING/IMPACT WOULD NEED TO BE AMENDED.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE
OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. THIS
CHANCE WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER TUESDAY THAN ON MONDAY...GIVEN
THAT THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE ANY STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A
COMPLEX OF STORMS LIKE THERE WAS ON MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 92 75 93 75 91 / 40 30 40 20 30
WACO, TX 88 73 90 73 92 / 50 30 50 20 30
PARIS, TX 91 72 90 72 89 / 30 20 40 20 40
DENTON, TX 91 73 91 73 91 / 30 30 40 20 30
MCKINNEY, TX 92 74 92 74 91 / 30 30 40 20 40
DALLAS, TX 92 75 92 74 91 / 40 30 40 20 40
TERRELL, TX 93 76 93 76 92 / 50 30 30 20 40
CORSICANA, TX 89 73 90 73 91 / 50 30 50 20 40
TEMPLE, TX 90 72 90 73 90 / 40 30 50 20 30
MINERAL WELLS, TX 89 72 90 71 90 / 50 40 30 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1112 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Stratus will develop along the I-10 corridor during the morning
hours Tuesday, going with MVFR CIGS at the KSOA and KJCT terminals
after 10Z Tuesday. VFR conditions will return by 15Z Tuesday.
Keeping the other terminals VFR the next 24 hours. A complex or two
of storms have developed over southeast New Mexico and the Big Bend
region. However, these storms will propagate southeast over the
Permian Basin and Trans Pecos through the early morning hours and
stay west of the terminals.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
UPDATE...
An outflow boundary continues to move southwest across the
Concho Valley and North Edwards Plateau late this evening.
Isolated thunderstorms that developed along this boundary earlier
this evening have dissipated with the loss of heating. The main
concern for the rest of tonight will be the potential for showers
and thunderstorms to move in from the west towards daybreak.
Thunderstorms are currently affecting portions of eastern New
Mexico, with the strongest convection located across southeast
New Mexico north of Carlsbad.
Uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution and weather storms
will organize into a southeast propagating MCS overnight. The Texas
Tech WRF is the most aggressive model and brings a weakening band
of convection into western sections after 4 AM, with activity
dissipating across central sections through early morning. The
latest NAM and HRRR show most of the convection remaining west of
the forecast area. Given the uncertainty, kept chance POPs in the
forecast generally west of a Haskell to Sonora line overnight and
lowered POPs to slight chance elsewhere. Also tweaked temps and
dewpoints to account for trends.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions at the terminals this evening into the early
morning hours. Stratus will develop along the I-10 corridor during
the morning hours Tuesday, going with MVFR CIGS at the KSOA and KJCT
terminals after 10Z Tuesday. VFR conditions will return by 15Z
Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible around the KSJT
terminal through mid evening and carrying VCTS through 03Z. A
complex or two of storms will develop well west of the terminals
later tonight and some of this activity may make it east into West
Central Texas by Tuesday morning. Confidence is not high enough to
put in the terminals and will watch radar and satellite trends this
evening.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)
Showers and thunderstorms moved out of the area early this
afternoon, leaving partly to mostly cloudy skies and a very humid
air mass along with leftover outflow boundaries from the overnight
into early morning thunderstorms. Aloft, a shortwave trough is
moving east into New Mexico this afternoon helping to set off
thunderstorms across the mountains of New Mexico. Thunderstorms
were also developing across the mountains near and west of the Big
Bend area in Texas. A few isolated thunderstorms could develop
by late this afternoon or evening along some of the previously
mentioned boundaries.
For tonight, expect another cluster of thunderstorms to get
organized to our west or northwest and move into our area
overnight. Thunderstorms are already developing across the
mountains of New Mexico, and upscale growth into a cluster of
thunderstorms is expected as the shortwave moving into the area
approaches. Several models indicate an MCS moving east through the
Permian Basin overnight, and into our area by early tomorrow
morning. Timing the arrival of these thunderstorms is difficult,
but expect the bulk of the activity to be after midnight rather
than before. Locally heavy rainfall, and dangerous lightning would
be the primary concerns with these thunderstorms.
Additional thunderstorm activity is possible tomorrow afternoon,
especially if the atmosphere can destabilize during the afternoon
hours. The favored area for redevelopment tomorrow appears to be
northwest of the area near the Texas panhandle region where
another approaching shortwave will interact with persistent moist
upslope flow.
Temperatures will remain near normal with lows near 70 tonight,
highs around 90 tomorrow.
20
LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Weak northwest flow aloft will continue over our area Tuesday night
and Wednesday. Could have a leftover disturbance (possibly a MCV)
over our eastern counties Tuesday evening and early Tuesday night.
The NAM brings a weak upper level disturbance southeast across the
TX Panhandle and toward our far northern counties by early
Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms would be possible
with both of these features. With this in mind, carrying 30 PoPs
across our eastern and far northern counties Tuesday night, with
20 PoPs elsewhere. Have a lingering low PoP for the eastern part
of our area on Wednesday, which will be on the eastern periphery
of the upper level high.
On Thursday and Friday, the upper high will remain positioned
over Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest, with an eastward
extension to near the Big Bend region. An upper shear axis is
progged to set up to the east of our area. Cannot rule out a low
possibility of showers/thunderstorms in some of our northern or
eastern counties Thursday and Friday. However, with lack of
confidence in placement of weak disturbances aloft or surface
boundaries, prefer to leave PoPs out for now.
For the weekend into the first part of next week, the 12Z GFS and
ECMWF are in better agreement in gradually building the heights
aloft over our area. While specific differences still exist, both
models show an overall shift with the upper high to the north
across the Southwestern states, while expanding it to the east
into Texas and the Southern Plains. This would effectively shut
off rain chances for our area, and lead to a warming trend in
temperatures. However, with fairly moist ground conditions and
evapotranspirative effects, along with south-southeasterly low-
level flow keeping an influx of Gulf moisture into our area,
believe the warming trend will be tempered. In addition, the GFS
keeps the low-level thermal ridge to our west, with only a limited
eastward expansion. With these indications, going with highs below
the GFS MOS guidance for our area.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 71 90 72 92 72 / 20 40 20 20 10
San Angelo 70 90 71 92 72 / 30 30 20 10 5
Junction 71 89 71 91 72 / 20 20 20 20 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
139 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
DRIFT EAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES
SLOWLY FROM OUT OF THE MIDWEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE
SYSTEMS WILL PULL IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR BACK INTO THE MID
APPALACHIAN AND MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO MID WEEK...MAINTAINING A
DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 845 PM EDT MONDAY...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN LACKING FOR A CHANGE THIS EVENING AS THE COMBO
OF THE RESIDUAL WEAK WEDGE...LACK OF UPPER FORCING AND ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO KEEP SHOWERS LIMITED TO THE EXTREME
WEST/SW. THIS IN AN AREA OF RETURN SE FLOW AS BETTER LIFT REMAINS
WELL TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. LATEST HRRR TRIES TO
SNEAK A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS NW NC/SW VA IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER
THIS LOOKS IFFY GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...SO HAVE ALREADY REMOVED
MOST POPS EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS SW
OVERNIGHT ESPCLY THE NW N CAROLINA MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS PER DEEPER
UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING WEAK INSTABILITY. DO EXPECT THE WEDGE
TO FLOP BACK TO THE WEST WITH CURRENT STRATO- CU ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE LIKELY TO LOWER AND EXPAND FURTHER AFTER MIDNIGHT UNDER A
WEAK BUT MORE EASTERLY TRAJECTORY. ALSO SOME FOG AROUND BUT GIVEN
LIGHT MIXING EARLY AND CLOUDS APPEARS ONLY PATCHY COVERAGE FOR THE
MOST PART. LOW TEMPS ON TRACK WITH SOME SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTS IN
THE VALLEYS...OTRW MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S LOOK GOOD.
THE WEDGE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH A COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH
PULSE STORMS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST STARTING IN
THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY MID
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITIES WILL BE GREATER TOMORROW THEREFORE THE
CHANCE FOR SEEING MORE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING COMPARED TO
TODAY ARE GOOD. PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO INCREASE TOMORROW BUT
HOVERING AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IS LOW WHILE LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT MONDAY...
ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SFC FRONT EDGE EAST INTO THE MTNS BY 18Z WED THEN SLOW DOWN AS
IT ENCOUNTERS THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. MODELS FAVOR EXITING THE
SHORTWAVE AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT...THEN MODELS STILL BRING WEAK
ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THURSDAY...WHILE FRONT STALLS
OVER THE ERN VA/NC AREA. THINK THURSDAY WILL BE DRIER FOR MOST...BUT
COULD SEE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND AND WITH SOME CONVERGENCE
IN THE LOW LVLS AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE.
ATTM...WEDNESDAY WILL BE WETTER/STORMIER WITH 40-60 POPS...HIGHER IN
THE NW CLOSER TO THE UPPER SUPPORT.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS NOT HIGHLIGHTING ANY SVR THREAT.
TIMING OF CLOUDS/STORMS MAY OFFSET LOW LVL INSTABILITY/LAPSE
RATES...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SVR THREAT.
TEMPS REMAIN TYPICAL OF LATE JUNE. BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY SINK SOME...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING FROM THE MID
60S WEST TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. THE EAST WILL STAY SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 155 PM EDT MONDAY...
GOING TO SEE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IN THE REGION THIS PERIOD.
MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED IN THE LOW LVLS WITH WEAK WAVES ALOFT HARD
TO PINPOINT EARLY ON TIMING WISE. RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK SUCH THAT THREAT OF STORMS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENINGS. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT OVERNIGHT SHOWERS OR
STORM THREAT GIVEN THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LVL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXISTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE SOUTHEAST BUT WIND FIELDS ARE WEAK. STILL WILL SEE AT LEAST
THE POPS IN THE 30-50 RANGE FOR FRI-SAT.
TEMPS STAY ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS STAY CLOSER TO WHAT WE EXPECT FOR
LATE JUNE...WITH UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 80S REST OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AND MID 80S/NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT TUESDAY...
REDEVELOPMENT OF WEAK WEDGE WILL SUPPORT GRADUAL EXPANSION AND
LOWERING OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST TERMINAL FORECAST SITES
EXPECTED TO DIP BACK INTO MVFR RANGE BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH PATCHY
AREAS OF IFR/LIFR EXPECTED IN LOW LYING AREAS AND/OR IN AREAS
WHERE CLOUDS ARE MINIMIZED.
ONSET OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING INTO
MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AS SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES DRIFTING
EAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE TROF SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKENING OF
WEDGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MVFR CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY
LIFT BACK TO MAINLY BKN VFR CU CIGS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH INCREASING THREAT OF WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH
THIS IN MIND...MAINTAINED MENTION OF VCTS AT BOTH KBLF/KLWB
BEGINNING AROUND 18Z/200 PM EDT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TIMING REMAINS A BIT IN QUESTION AS POTENTIAL
EARLIER ARRIVAL COULD MEAN MORE COVERAGE IN THE EAST INCLUDING
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN STRONGER STORMS...WHILE BETTER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION IF THE
FRONT SLOWS.
MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT
OVERHEAD OR PUSHES TO THE SE...BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH
HEATING FOR ADDED DIURNAL CONVECTION AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.
MOISTURE LIKELY RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH A REPEAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION FRIDAY LEADING TO BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR. THIS TREND LOOKS TO PERSIST AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH AT
LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION MAKING FOR OCNL MVFR/IFR IN SPOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTRW AREAS OF IFR FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN THE PREVIOUS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WERT/WP
NEAR TERM...JH/RCS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/RCS/WERT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
230 AM PDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Following the warmest weather of the season so far...temperatures
will return to normal Tuesday with the arrival of a cold front.
Tuesday`s cold front will also bring a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest as well as gusty winds. The
Thursday through Sunday time frame will also feature a chance of
showers and thunderstorms...and will once again accompany gusty
winds.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today: Water vapor imagery at 2:00 AM this morning shows the back
side of a cold front pushing across western WA. Out ahead of the
front is a decent plume of moisture with Pwats up over an inch.
Forcing along the front is not particularly strong, but radar is
picking up on some light shower activity across the Cascade Mtns
and out over as far east as the western basin. We are pretty dry
at low levels, so it will take some time for the atmosphere to
moisten up along the front. The dry air in place will likely limit
the amount of rainfall we see (up to around 0.05 in or so) as the
front pushes through during morning hours.
We will then see the upper level wave push across this afternoon.
Dew point temperatures will be increasing through this morning as
the lower levels moisten up. With that said, water vapor imagery
does show a pronounced dry slot moving in behind the cold front.
This drier air aloft will also begin to mix down to the surface
through the day. Best drying will take place along the east slopes
of the northern Cascades and then out over the western basin.
These areas will have a harder time holding on to enough moisture
in the boundary layer to achieve the instability needed for
showers in the afternoon.
Thicker clouds with the front will translate east of the region
in the afternoon, which will allow for some sun breaks. The
northern mtns and the ID Panhandle will destabilize through the
afternoon. Surface based CAPEs of 300-600 J/KG are anticipated
across these areas with 0-6 km shear values of 20-30 kts. Best
shear will be located across the Northeast Mtns and in the ID
Panhandle. There will be the possibility for some stronger
thunderstorms across these areas, but the combination of
instability and shear is only marginal for stronger storms today;
heavy rain, small hail and gusty outflow winds will all be
possible with any stronger thunderstorms that may develop. The
northern portions of the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane Area and
the Palouse will likely be on the western and southern fringe of
thunderstorms today.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler and close to seasonal
normals.
Tonight through Wednesday: The shortwave disturbance for this
afternoon will clear the region overnight with some shortwave
riding building in behind. This will result in a break between
weather systems that will continue into the Wednesday afternoon.
There will continue to be a possibility for uncapped surface
based CAPE over the higher terrain. This may lead to some isolated
thunderstorm activity over the mountains; however, there will also
be increasing cirrus cloud cover during the afternoon as well that will
likely suppress convection late in the afternoon. /SVH
Wednesday Night through Thursday Night: An active weather periods
is expected, with another wave bringing rainfall chances to much
of the region. A juicy air-mass will surge over the region,
marked by precipitable water values over an inch. A potent
disturbance will lift northeast bringing with it good chances for
rainfall, and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm. Model guidance
shows the best chances for the rain will be over southeast
Washington and the southern Idaho Panhandle through Thursday
morning, and then increase further north into the northeast WA
mountains and the central/northern Idaho Panhandle during the day.
Chances for precipitation were raised over these regions even
further from our previous forecast, and they may not be high
enough. Uncertainty does exist on the westward extent of the
heavier rainfall, and this does include the Spokane areas. This
forecast does not go as bullish on chances over Spokane, but this
is something that will have to watched closely.
Further west, given the high moisture content in the air and the
presence of the upper level disturbance, it is likely that
rainfall will extend into the Columbia Basin. It will likely be
more scattered in nature, as opposed to locations further east.
With the presence of the rainfall and widespread cloud cover,
temperatures over the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle will be cool. High there temperatures will range
anywhere from 8 to 12 degrees below normal, while locations
further west will see readings near normal. ty
Friday through Tuesday...The upper level low in the Gulf of Alaska
will continue to be the big weather player into the extended
forecast period. A weak frontal system will eject off the main low
on Friday. Model PWAT`s are around 160 percent of normal so plenty
of moisture will be available. The best forcing will be right
along the front and will be aided by orographic lift. So the focus
will be for a good chance of showers across the Cascade mountains,
the northeast mountains and the Idaho Panhandle mountains. Behind
the front the atmosphere will destabilize enough to support a few
thunderstorms that may form over the higher terrain.
Through the remainder of the weekend the flow becomes zonal with
a few weaker waves move along or just north of the Canadian
border. We will lose the deep moisture tap. Showers and possibly
some isolated thunderstorms can be expected both Saturday and
Sunday during the late afternoon and early evening, but again
mainly over the higher terrain. Temperatures will remain several
degrees cooler than seasonal normals.
Sunday night through Tuesday the low in the Gulf will begin to
move east and will pump up a flat ridge of high pressure across
the Pacific Northwest. A few stray afternoon showers will be
possible near the cascade crest and the Panhandle mountains,
otherwise the forecast will remain dry. Temperatures will begin to
warm on Monday and rise to near normal by Tuesday. /Tobin
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: An upper level trough and an associated cold front will
cross the Cascades overnight reaching Eastern Washington and North
Idaho on Tuesday. Scattered showers are expected along the front
and then afternoon sun breaks will destabilize the atmosphere
Tuesday afternoon over northern and eastern Washington as well as
the Idaho Panhandle. Isolated thunderstorms are expected with
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KLWS included in this threat. However with
only isolated coverage expected around the TAF sites VCSH was
maintained for the afternoon with no mention of TS. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 76 53 77 56 70 52 / 30 20 10 20 40 20
Coeur d`Alene 73 50 76 54 67 51 / 50 40 10 40 60 30
Pullman 75 48 76 53 67 48 / 30 10 10 50 60 20
Lewiston 83 55 84 60 73 56 / 20 10 10 60 70 20
Colville 75 48 78 53 70 50 / 70 30 10 10 40 30
Sandpoint 72 46 75 50 66 52 / 60 60 20 30 50 40
Kellogg 72 49 74 52 66 50 / 50 50 20 40 70 40
Moses Lake 85 55 84 61 81 55 / 20 0 10 10 20 10
Wenatchee 83 58 83 63 81 58 / 20 0 10 10 20 10
Omak 80 51 83 57 82 52 / 50 10 10 10 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
230 AM PDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Following the warmest weather of the season so far...temperatures
will return to normal Tuesday with the arrival of a cold front.
Tuesday`s cold front will also bring a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest as well as gusty winds. The
Thursday through Sunday time frame will also feature a chance of
showers and thunderstorms...and will once again accompany gusty
winds.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today: Water vapor imagery at 2:00 AM this morning shows the back
side of a cold front pushing across western WA. Out ahead of the
front is a decent plume of moisture with Pwats up over an inch.
Forcing along the front is not particularly strong, but radar is
picking up on some light shower activity across the Cascade Mtns
and out over as far east as the western basin. We are pretty dry
at low levels, so it will take some time for the atmosphere to
moisten up along the front. The dry air in place will likely limit
the amount of rainfall we see (up to around 0.05 in or so) as the
front pushes through during morning hours.
We will then see the upper level wave push across this afternoon.
Dew point temperatures will be increasing through this morning as
the lower levels moisten up. With that said, water vapor imagery
does show a pronounced dry slot moving in behind the cold front.
This drier air aloft will also begin to mix down to the surface
through the day. Best drying will take place along the east slopes
of the northern Cascades and then out over the western basin.
These areas will have a harder time holding on to enough moisture
in the boundary layer to achieve the instability needed for
showers in the afternoon.
Thicker clouds with the front will translate east of the region
in the afternoon, which will allow for some sun breaks. The
northern mtns and the ID Panhandle will destabilize through the
afternoon. Surface based CAPEs of 300-600 J/KG are anticipated
across these areas with 0-6 km shear values of 20-30 kts. Best
shear will be located across the Northeast Mtns and in the ID
Panhandle. There will be the possibility for some stronger
thunderstorms across these areas, but the combination of
instability and shear is only marginal for stronger storms today;
heavy rain, small hail and gusty outflow winds will all be
possible with any stronger thunderstorms that may develop. The
northern portions of the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane Area and
the Palouse will likely be on the western and southern fringe of
thunderstorms today.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler and close to seasonal
normals.
Tonight through Wednesday: The shortwave disturbance for this
afternoon will clear the region overnight with some shortwave
riding building in behind. This will result in a break between
weather systems that will continue into the Wednesday afternoon.
There will continue to be a possibility for uncapped surface
based CAPE over the higher terrain. This may lead to some isolated
thunderstorm activity over the mountains; however, there will also
be increasing cirrus cloud cover during the afternoon as well that will
likely suppress convection late in the afternoon. /SVH
Wednesday Night through Thursday Night: An active weather periods
is expected, with another wave bringing rainfall chances to much
of the region. A juicy air-mass will surge over the region,
marked by precipitable water values over an inch. A potent
disturbance will lift northeast bringing with it good chances for
rainfall, and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm. Model guidance
shows the best chances for the rain will be over southeast
Washington and the southern Idaho Panhandle through Thursday
morning, and then increase further north into the northeast WA
mountains and the central/northern Idaho Panhandle during the day.
Chances for precipitation were raised over these regions even
further from our previous forecast, and they may not be high
enough. Uncertainty does exist on the westward extent of the
heavier rainfall, and this does include the Spokane areas. This
forecast does not go as bullish on chances over Spokane, but this
is something that will have to watched closely.
Further west, given the high moisture content in the air and the
presence of the upper level disturbance, it is likely that
rainfall will extend into the Columbia Basin. It will likely be
more scattered in nature, as opposed to locations further east.
With the presence of the rainfall and widespread cloud cover,
temperatures over the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle will be cool. High there temperatures will range
anywhere from 8 to 12 degrees below normal, while locations
further west will see readings near normal. ty
Friday through Tuesday...The upper level low in the Gulf of Alaska
will continue to be the big weather player into the extended
forecast period. A weak frontal system will eject off the main low
on Friday. Model PWAT`s are around 160 percent of normal so plenty
of moisture will be available. The best forcing will be right
along the front and will be aided by orographic lift. So the focus
will be for a good chance of showers across the Cascade mountains,
the northeast mountains and the Idaho Panhandle mountains. Behind
the front the atmosphere will destabilize enough to support a few
thunderstorms that may form over the higher terrain.
Through the remainder of the weekend the flow becomes zonal with
a few weaker waves move along or just north of the Canadian
border. We will lose the deep moisture tap. Showers and possibly
some isolated thunderstorms can be expected both Saturday and
Sunday during the late afternoon and early evening, but again
mainly over the higher terrain. Temperatures will remain several
degrees cooler than seasonal normals.
Sunday night through Tuesday the low in the Gulf will begin to
move east and will pump up a flat ridge of high pressure across
the Pacific Northwest. A few stray afternoon showers will be
possible near the cascade crest and the Panhandle mountains,
otherwise the forecast will remain dry. Temperatures will begin to
warm on Monday and rise to near normal by Tuesday. /Tobin
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: An upper level trough and an associated cold front will
cross the Cascades overnight reaching Eastern Washington and North
Idaho on Tuesday. Scattered showers are expected along the front
and then afternoon sun breaks will destabilize the atmosphere
Tuesday afternoon over northern and eastern Washington as well as
the Idaho Panhandle. Isolated thunderstorms are expected with
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KLWS included in this threat. However with
only isolated coverage expected around the TAF sites VCSH was
maintained for the afternoon with no mention of TS. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 76 53 77 56 70 52 / 30 20 10 20 40 20
Coeur d`Alene 73 50 76 54 67 51 / 50 40 10 40 60 30
Pullman 75 48 76 53 67 48 / 30 10 10 50 60 20
Lewiston 83 55 84 60 73 56 / 20 10 10 60 70 20
Colville 75 48 78 53 70 50 / 70 30 10 10 40 30
Sandpoint 72 46 75 50 66 52 / 60 60 20 30 50 40
Kellogg 72 49 74 52 66 50 / 50 50 20 40 70 40
Moses Lake 85 55 84 61 81 55 / 20 0 10 10 20 10
Wenatchee 83 58 83 63 81 58 / 20 0 10 10 20 10
Omak 80 51 83 57 82 52 / 50 10 10 10 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
230 AM PDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Following the warmest weather of the season so far...temperatures
will return to normal Tuesday with the arrival of a cold front.
Tuesday`s cold front will also bring a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest as well as gusty winds. The
Thursday through Sunday time frame will also feature a chance of
showers and thunderstorms...and will once again accompany gusty
winds.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today: Water vapor imagery at 2:00 AM this morning shows the back
side of a cold front pushing across western WA. Out ahead of the
front is a decent plume of moisture with Pwats up over an inch.
Forcing along the front is not particularly strong, but radar is
picking up on some light shower activity across the Cascade Mtns
and out over as far east as the western basin. We are pretty dry
at low levels, so it will take some time for the atmosphere to
moisten up along the front. The dry air in place will likely limit
the amount of rainfall we see (up to around 0.05 in or so) as the
front pushes through during morning hours.
We will then see the upper level wave push across this afternoon.
Dew point temperatures will be increasing through this morning as
the lower levels moisten up. With that said, water vapor imagery
does show a pronounced dry slot moving in behind the cold front.
This drier air aloft will also begin to mix down to the surface
through the day. Best drying will take place along the east slopes
of the northern Cascades and then out over the western basin.
These areas will have a harder time holding on to enough moisture
in the boundary layer to achieve the instability needed for
showers in the afternoon.
Thicker clouds with the front will translate east of the region
in the afternoon, which will allow for some sun breaks. The
northern mtns and the ID Panhandle will destabilize through the
afternoon. Surface based CAPEs of 300-600 J/KG are anticipated
across these areas with 0-6 km shear values of 20-30 kts. Best
shear will be located across the Northeast Mtns and in the ID
Panhandle. There will be the possibility for some stronger
thunderstorms across these areas, but the combination of
instability and shear is only marginal for stronger storms today;
heavy rain, small hail and gusty outflow winds will all be
possible with any stronger thunderstorms that may develop. The
northern portions of the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane Area and
the Palouse will likely be on the western and southern fringe of
thunderstorms today.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler and close to seasonal
normals.
Tonight through Wednesday: The shortwave disturbance for this
afternoon will clear the region overnight with some shortwave
riding building in behind. This will result in a break between
weather systems that will continue into the Wednesday afternoon.
There will continue to be a possibility for uncapped surface
based CAPE over the higher terrain. This may lead to some isolated
thunderstorm activity over the mountains; however, there will also
be increasing cirrus cloud cover during the afternoon as well that will
likely suppress convection late in the afternoon. /SVH
Wednesday Night through Thursday Night: An active weather periods
is expected, with another wave bringing rainfall chances to much
of the region. A juicy air-mass will surge over the region,
marked by precipitable water values over an inch. A potent
disturbance will lift northeast bringing with it good chances for
rainfall, and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm. Model guidance
shows the best chances for the rain will be over southeast
Washington and the southern Idaho Panhandle through Thursday
morning, and then increase further north into the northeast WA
mountains and the central/northern Idaho Panhandle during the day.
Chances for precipitation were raised over these regions even
further from our previous forecast, and they may not be high
enough. Uncertainty does exist on the westward extent of the
heavier rainfall, and this does include the Spokane areas. This
forecast does not go as bullish on chances over Spokane, but this
is something that will have to watched closely.
Further west, given the high moisture content in the air and the
presence of the upper level disturbance, it is likely that
rainfall will extend into the Columbia Basin. It will likely be
more scattered in nature, as opposed to locations further east.
With the presence of the rainfall and widespread cloud cover,
temperatures over the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle will be cool. High there temperatures will range
anywhere from 8 to 12 degrees below normal, while locations
further west will see readings near normal. ty
Friday through Tuesday...The upper level low in the Gulf of Alaska
will continue to be the big weather player into the extended
forecast period. A weak frontal system will eject off the main low
on Friday. Model PWAT`s are around 160 percent of normal so plenty
of moisture will be available. The best forcing will be right
along the front and will be aided by orographic lift. So the focus
will be for a good chance of showers across the Cascade mountains,
the northeast mountains and the Idaho Panhandle mountains. Behind
the front the atmosphere will destabilize enough to support a few
thunderstorms that may form over the higher terrain.
Through the remainder of the weekend the flow becomes zonal with
a few weaker waves move along or just north of the Canadian
border. We will lose the deep moisture tap. Showers and possibly
some isolated thunderstorms can be expected both Saturday and
Sunday during the late afternoon and early evening, but again
mainly over the higher terrain. Temperatures will remain several
degrees cooler than seasonal normals.
Sunday night through Tuesday the low in the Gulf will begin to
move east and will pump up a flat ridge of high pressure across
the Pacific Northwest. A few stray afternoon showers will be
possible near the cascade crest and the Panhandle mountains,
otherwise the forecast will remain dry. Temperatures will begin to
warm on Monday and rise to near normal by Tuesday. /Tobin
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: An upper level trough and an associated cold front will
cross the Cascades overnight reaching Eastern Washington and North
Idaho on Tuesday. Scattered showers are expected along the front
and then afternoon sun breaks will destabilize the atmosphere
Tuesday afternoon over northern and eastern Washington as well as
the Idaho Panhandle. Isolated thunderstorms are expected with
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KLWS included in this threat. However with
only isolated coverage expected around the TAF sites VCSH was
maintained for the afternoon with no mention of TS. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 76 53 77 56 70 52 / 30 20 10 20 40 20
Coeur d`Alene 73 50 76 54 67 51 / 50 40 10 40 60 30
Pullman 75 48 76 53 67 48 / 30 10 10 50 60 20
Lewiston 83 55 84 60 73 56 / 20 10 10 60 70 20
Colville 75 48 78 53 70 50 / 70 30 10 10 40 30
Sandpoint 72 46 75 50 66 52 / 60 60 20 30 50 40
Kellogg 72 49 74 52 66 50 / 50 50 20 40 70 40
Moses Lake 85 55 84 61 81 55 / 20 0 10 10 20 10
Wenatchee 83 58 83 63 81 58 / 20 0 10 10 20 10
Omak 80 51 83 57 82 52 / 50 10 10 10 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
230 AM PDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Following the warmest weather of the season so far...temperatures
will return to normal Tuesday with the arrival of a cold front.
Tuesday`s cold front will also bring a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest as well as gusty winds. The
Thursday through Sunday time frame will also feature a chance of
showers and thunderstorms...and will once again accompany gusty
winds.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today: Water vapor imagery at 2:00 AM this morning shows the back
side of a cold front pushing across western WA. Out ahead of the
front is a decent plume of moisture with Pwats up over an inch.
Forcing along the front is not particularly strong, but radar is
picking up on some light shower activity across the Cascade Mtns
and out over as far east as the western basin. We are pretty dry
at low levels, so it will take some time for the atmosphere to
moisten up along the front. The dry air in place will likely limit
the amount of rainfall we see (up to around 0.05 in or so) as the
front pushes through during morning hours.
We will then see the upper level wave push across this afternoon.
Dew point temperatures will be increasing through this morning as
the lower levels moisten up. With that said, water vapor imagery
does show a pronounced dry slot moving in behind the cold front.
This drier air aloft will also begin to mix down to the surface
through the day. Best drying will take place along the east slopes
of the northern Cascades and then out over the western basin.
These areas will have a harder time holding on to enough moisture
in the boundary layer to achieve the instability needed for
showers in the afternoon.
Thicker clouds with the front will translate east of the region
in the afternoon, which will allow for some sun breaks. The
northern mtns and the ID Panhandle will destabilize through the
afternoon. Surface based CAPEs of 300-600 J/KG are anticipated
across these areas with 0-6 km shear values of 20-30 kts. Best
shear will be located across the Northeast Mtns and in the ID
Panhandle. There will be the possibility for some stronger
thunderstorms across these areas, but the combination of
instability and shear is only marginal for stronger storms today;
heavy rain, small hail and gusty outflow winds will all be
possible with any stronger thunderstorms that may develop. The
northern portions of the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane Area and
the Palouse will likely be on the western and southern fringe of
thunderstorms today.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler and close to seasonal
normals.
Tonight through Wednesday: The shortwave disturbance for this
afternoon will clear the region overnight with some shortwave
riding building in behind. This will result in a break between
weather systems that will continue into the Wednesday afternoon.
There will continue to be a possibility for uncapped surface
based CAPE over the higher terrain. This may lead to some isolated
thunderstorm activity over the mountains; however, there will also
be increasing cirrus cloud cover during the afternoon as well that will
likely suppress convection late in the afternoon. /SVH
Wednesday Night through Thursday Night: An active weather periods
is expected, with another wave bringing rainfall chances to much
of the region. A juicy air-mass will surge over the region,
marked by precipitable water values over an inch. A potent
disturbance will lift northeast bringing with it good chances for
rainfall, and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm. Model guidance
shows the best chances for the rain will be over southeast
Washington and the southern Idaho Panhandle through Thursday
morning, and then increase further north into the northeast WA
mountains and the central/northern Idaho Panhandle during the day.
Chances for precipitation were raised over these regions even
further from our previous forecast, and they may not be high
enough. Uncertainty does exist on the westward extent of the
heavier rainfall, and this does include the Spokane areas. This
forecast does not go as bullish on chances over Spokane, but this
is something that will have to watched closely.
Further west, given the high moisture content in the air and the
presence of the upper level disturbance, it is likely that
rainfall will extend into the Columbia Basin. It will likely be
more scattered in nature, as opposed to locations further east.
With the presence of the rainfall and widespread cloud cover,
temperatures over the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle will be cool. High there temperatures will range
anywhere from 8 to 12 degrees below normal, while locations
further west will see readings near normal. ty
Friday through Tuesday...The upper level low in the Gulf of Alaska
will continue to be the big weather player into the extended
forecast period. A weak frontal system will eject off the main low
on Friday. Model PWAT`s are around 160 percent of normal so plenty
of moisture will be available. The best forcing will be right
along the front and will be aided by orographic lift. So the focus
will be for a good chance of showers across the Cascade mountains,
the northeast mountains and the Idaho Panhandle mountains. Behind
the front the atmosphere will destabilize enough to support a few
thunderstorms that may form over the higher terrain.
Through the remainder of the weekend the flow becomes zonal with
a few weaker waves move along or just north of the Canadian
border. We will lose the deep moisture tap. Showers and possibly
some isolated thunderstorms can be expected both Saturday and
Sunday during the late afternoon and early evening, but again
mainly over the higher terrain. Temperatures will remain several
degrees cooler than seasonal normals.
Sunday night through Tuesday the low in the Gulf will begin to
move east and will pump up a flat ridge of high pressure across
the Pacific Northwest. A few stray afternoon showers will be
possible near the cascade crest and the Panhandle mountains,
otherwise the forecast will remain dry. Temperatures will begin to
warm on Monday and rise to near normal by Tuesday. /Tobin
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: An upper level trough and an associated cold front will
cross the Cascades overnight reaching Eastern Washington and North
Idaho on Tuesday. Scattered showers are expected along the front
and then afternoon sun breaks will destabilize the atmosphere
Tuesday afternoon over northern and eastern Washington as well as
the Idaho Panhandle. Isolated thunderstorms are expected with
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KLWS included in this threat. However with
only isolated coverage expected around the TAF sites VCSH was
maintained for the afternoon with no mention of TS. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 76 53 77 56 70 52 / 30 20 10 20 40 20
Coeur d`Alene 73 50 76 54 67 51 / 50 40 10 40 60 30
Pullman 75 48 76 53 67 48 / 30 10 10 50 60 20
Lewiston 83 55 84 60 73 56 / 20 10 10 60 70 20
Colville 75 48 78 53 70 50 / 70 30 10 10 40 30
Sandpoint 72 46 75 50 66 52 / 60 60 20 30 50 40
Kellogg 72 49 74 52 66 50 / 50 50 20 40 70 40
Moses Lake 85 55 84 61 81 55 / 20 0 10 10 20 10
Wenatchee 83 58 83 63 81 58 / 20 0 10 10 20 10
Omak 80 51 83 57 82 52 / 50 10 10 10 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1026 PM PDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Following the warmest weather of the season so far...temperatures
will return to normal Tuesday with the arrival of a cold front.
Tuesday`s cold front will also bring a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the Inland Northwest as well as gusty winds. The
Thursday through Sunday time frame will also feature a chance of
showers and thunderstorms...and will once again accompany gusty
winds.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: Water vapor satellite from this evening showed an upper
level wave moving into Western Washington and Oregon. Radar
imagery shows a narrow area of rain associated with a mid level
front. As this front crosses the Cascades overnight...it will be
moving into an area of dry lower levels. However sufficient mid
level moisture and lift should be enough to bring scattered
showers to the East Slopes (numerous showers near the Cascade
crest), with isolated showers into the Okanogan Valley, Wenatchee
area, and western Columbia basin. Some minor POP increases have
been made based on radar trends and the latest 00z HRRR showing
the eastern edge of the showers tonight making it into Moses
Lake. For Eastern Washington and North Idaho the chance of showers
will hold off til Tuesday morning when the mid level front swings
through. The warm day today followed by increased cloud cover
tonight will yield a mild night for the Inland Northwest with
valley lows mainly in the mid 50s to lower 60s. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: An upper level trough and an associated cold front will
cross the Cascades overnight reaching Eastern Washington and North
Idaho on Tuesday. Scattered showers are expected along the front
and then afternoon sun breaks will destabilize the atmosphere
Tuesday afternoon over northern and eastern Washington as well as
the Idaho Panhandle. Isolated thunderstorms are expected with
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KLWS included in this threat. However with
only isolated coverage expected around the TAF sites VCSH was
maintained for the afternoon with no mention of TS. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 60 74 53 77 56 72 / 0 30 10 10 30 40
Coeur d`Alene 56 73 50 76 53 70 / 0 40 20 10 40 50
Pullman 54 73 48 76 53 71 / 0 30 10 10 60 60
Lewiston 61 80 55 84 60 75 / 0 20 10 10 60 60
Colville 53 75 48 78 53 74 / 10 60 20 10 10 40
Sandpoint 51 73 46 75 49 68 / 10 60 30 20 40 50
Kellogg 53 74 49 74 51 69 / 10 40 30 20 40 60
Moses Lake 63 85 55 84 61 83 / 20 20 0 10 10 20
Wenatchee 67 83 58 83 63 82 / 20 20 0 10 10 20
Omak 61 81 51 83 58 83 / 20 50 10 10 10 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1046 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
DEEPER CUMULUS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST HOUR IN THE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE...BUT SO FAR NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF UPSCALE GROWTH AS THESE CELLS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
PLAINS. DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TO THE
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN AREAS NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THIS EVENING. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
MLCAPES OF 1000-1250 J/KG STRETCHING ALONG INTERSTATE 80 OVER THE
PLAINS COMBINED WITH 35-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. THE HRRR MODEL HAS A
LONE STORM MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE
LATE AFTN. SO VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT OVER LARAMIE COUNTY AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS GOING THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE GRADUALLY INCREASING
TEMPS AND INSTABILITY. FLOW ALOFT IS STILL WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY ON
TUES WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. DEW POINTS
INCH UP SLIGHTLY...SO CAPE VALUES WILL INCREASE OVER TODAY WITH THE
GFS SHOWING AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG INTERSTATE 80. INSTABILITY DROPS
OFF TO 750 J/KG ACROSS CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY
BE OVER AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF A WHEATLAND TO SCOTTSBLUFF LINE.
TEMPS ON TUES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS AFTN. THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS STILL LOOKING LIKE
WED. A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WY DURING THE AFTN AND
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS BY WED AFTN ARE INTO THE UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S ALMOST EVERYWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER
THAN THE PRECEDING DAYS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE
AXIS...THERE IS STILL AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ITS A BIT
EARLY TO PINPOINT THE AREA OVER THE PLAINS THAN HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT IT WOULD SEEM TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAN MOVES INTO WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
MINOR MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WEAK UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS YIELDS TO A BROADER UPPER TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT VEERS TO WESTERLY. SURFACE PATTERN WILL
BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH A RIDGE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND TROUGH ACROSS
THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH PASSING
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MINIMAL GIVEN WEAK SHEAR...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FOR THE PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
DRIER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
60S AND 70S FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH THIS
EVENING...WITH THE BULK OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTH
INTO COLORADO. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH AREA
TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THRU.
DIFFICULT TO KNOW JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WILL BE...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN IT IS OCCURRING AT NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THE 06Z TAFS
WITH VCSH IN MANY AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITIES.
ADDITIONALLY...HAVE SIDED WITH PERSISTENCE IN AREA OF FOG/LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS THE PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM
LAST NIGHT. SO BROUGHT FOG INTO KLAR...KCDR AND A LOWER STRATUS
DECK INTO KCYS 08-14Z. STILL LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR TUESDAY. THE BEST
COVERAGE AGAIN LOOKS TO BE AT KLAR AND KCYS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
AGAIN SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SITES AFTER 00Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUN 23 2014
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MIDWEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST AND THE BEST CHANCE
OF WETTING RAINS WILL EXIST TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SUCH
THAT MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 15
PERCENT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION...HAHN
FIRE WEATHER...FINCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
639 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE OUR HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN
TO VERY SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION BY TONIGHT. THIS FRONT COULD
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION LATER TODAY. TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DRAG THROUGH THE REGION...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING
ALONG IT...WHICH WILL PRODUCE BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS
MUCH OF HERKIMER COUNTY. STILL...NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
THE LATEST RUC AND MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY.
SO WE WILL CALL THESE SCATTERED THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE SHOWERS LOOK TO EXIT AND THERE MIGHT BE A LULL BEFORE MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS FORM LATER TODAY.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION REMAINED DRY AND MILD AS A
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S
AT THIS HOUR...WITH ONLY A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.
SO FOR THIS UPDATE...CHANGED SOME OF THE POP/WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND OF COURSE TWEAKED THE HOURLY GRIDS.
TODAY...SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH A GOOD DEAL OF HIGH CLOUDS...IN
THE CAPITAL REGION...LESS SO FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. IT WILL BE
MOSTLY TO TOTALLY CLOUDY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO
PERHAPS EVEN 30 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST...WITH SOME
LOCALITIES POSSIBLY REACHING THE UPPER 80S. FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST...WITH THICKER CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
WARM...CLOSER TO 80.
DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CREEP THROUGH THE 50S...REACHING 60 OR HIGHER
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ALL OF THE FACTORS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT
30KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORM THAT DO DEVELOP COULD END UP
PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS (PROBABLY SUBSEVERE) BUT A ROGUE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH A BOWING SEGMENT. PWATS RAMP TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES...SO ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD HEAVY RAINFALL. WE
CONTINUE TO USE ENHANCED WORDING IN OUR GRIDS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST...WE ONLY GAVE SLIGHT
POPS (ACTUALLY NONE SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY AS RIDGING ALOFT WILL LIKELY
PREVENT ANY UPWARD MOTION AND RESULTANT SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SINCE THE COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE OUR WEST TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...MIGHT ACTUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT..ALTHOUGH REMNANTS OF THOSE STORMS COULD CERTAINLY MOVE
FURTHER EAST.
DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S EVERYWHERE MAKING IT A MUGGY
NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 60S...CLOSER TO 70 IN THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MORE ORGANIZED UPPER DYNAMICS...A
LITTLE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND CORE...MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN ORGANIZED BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL LARGELY
BE BASED AT THE SURFACE AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL DO NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS...BUT MAYBE MORE OF A VERY HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL BASED ON THE VERY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES AROUND TWO
INCHES REGION WIDE.
GUIDANCE WAS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIES
RAINFALL WILL TAKE PLACE. THE REALLY MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO
POTENTIALLY RECEIVE AN INCH OR BETTER OF RAINFALL.
INITIALLY...NORTHERN AREAS WILL GET HIT EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.
WE ARE STILL NOT READY TO ISSUE ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES YET...AS THE
BULK OF THE RAIN WILL NOT FALL UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY AND THE
CONFIDENCE OF FLASH FLOODING IS BELOW 50 PERCENT DUE TO SOMEWHAT DRY
CONDITIONS GOING INTO THIS EVENT. MORE ABOUT HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES CAN
BE FOUND IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SECTION.
THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS OF LINGERING UPPER ENERGY AND A LOW
LEVEL FEATURE FOR ONE LAST ROUND OF LOW LEVEL FORCING AS THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS EAST AND SOUTH. SO...LINGERING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING IN MOST
PLACES...BUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON HOW CLOUDS IT
REMAINS. THE 00Z NAM MOS NUMBERS WERE COOLER BASED ON MORE CLOUDS
WHILE THE MAV MOS NUMBERS INDICATED PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.
FOR NOW...WENT WITH THE MAV/MET MIX BUT LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER
MET NUMBERS. THIS WOULD GIVE HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 AROUND THE CAPITAL
REGION...LOWER TO MID 80S FURTHER SOUTH...70S WELL NORTH AND WEST.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH HOLDING WELL INTO THE 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS GIVING TO A FEW LATE TIME SUNNY BREAKS AND ONLY
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTHWEST TO
LOWER 80S SOUTH OF ALBANY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT EXITS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
THE ENTIRE REGION TO ENJOY SOME TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS TO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. GETTING
WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS POINT FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. AT KALB HAVE INDICATED VCSH IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 23Z TUESDAY...AND AFTER 21Z AT KGFL. THERE IS ALSO A
TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR SHOWERS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT KGFL DUE TO
RADAR SHOWING A BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AS OF 630 AM. AT KPOU/KPSF...HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY PCPN THROUGH 12
WEDNESDAY.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
12Z WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE PERIOD OF PSSIBLE MVFR AT KGFL
TO START THE TAF PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MODELS AND STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING LOWERING CIGS LATE TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC PERSISTS AND BRINGS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. AFTER AROUND 07Z TONIGHT HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS AT ALL
THE TAF SITES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL THE TAF SITES ON TODAY TO 10 TO
15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 16 TO 22 KTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 TO
10 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 15 KTS AT KALB.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY TODAY OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE.
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MORE POSSIBLE.
A GUSTY SOUTH WIND WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH.
A WET AND UNSETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
RH VALUES SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 60 TO
80 PERCENT RANGE. ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH
OR MORE OF RAINFALL.
A DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY TODAY. SOME OF THESE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL RESULTING WITH SOME PONDING OF WATER. ONLY AN OUTSIDE OF
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW...AND ONE...IF NOT
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE...TO LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SCATTERED
EVERYWHERE ELSE. BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY WITH POTENTIAL FOR PONDING OF WATER.
WE ARE FORECASTING AN AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO
PRODUCE SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON SOME RIVERS AND
STREAMS. A COUPLE SPOTS LIKE DELTA DAM AND UTICA COULD REACH ACTION
STAGE.
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL DO HAVE THE REMOTE
POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING BUT RIGHT NOW...THE THREAT
OF THAT WAS LOWER THAN 50 PERCENT SO NO FLASH FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
WERE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT. KEEP IN MIND ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD
PRODUCE LOCAL AMOUNTS WELL OVER 2 INCHES.
STAY TUNED.
DRIER WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE OUR HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN
TO VERY SLOWLY APPROACH OUR REGION BY TONIGHT. THIS FRONT COULD
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION LATER TODAY. TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DRAG THROUGH THE REGION...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING
ALONG IT...WHICH WILL PRODUCE BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS
MUCH OF HERKIMER COUNTY. STILL...NO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
THE LATEST RUC AND MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATED LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY.
SO WE WILL CALL THESE SCATTERED THROUGH MID MORNING.
THE SHOWERS LOOK TO EXIT AND THERE MIGHT BE A LULL BEFORE MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS FORM LATER TODAY.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION REMAINED DRY AND MILD AS A
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY BREEZE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S
AT THIS HOUR...WITH ONLY A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.
SO FOR THIS UPDATE...CHANGED SOME OF THE POP/WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND OF COURSE TWEAKED THE HOURLY GRIDS.
TODAY...SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH A GOOD DEAL OF HIGH CLOUDS...IN
THE CAPITAL REGION...LESS SO FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. IT WILL BE
MOSTLY TO TOTALLY CLOUDY FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
A SOUTH WIND WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO
PERHAPS EVEN 30 MPH AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST...WITH SOME
LOCALITIES POSSIBLY REACHING THE UPPER 80S. FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST...WITH THICKER CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
WARM...CLOSER TO 80.
DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CREEP THROUGH THE 50S...REACHING 60 OR HIGHER
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
ALL OF THE FACTORS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT
30KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORM THAT DO DEVELOP COULD END UP
PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS (PROBABLY SUBSEVERE) BUT A ROGUE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH A BOWING SEGMENT. PWATS RAMP TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES...SO ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD HEAVY RAINFALL. WE
CONTINUE TO USE ENHANCED WORDING IN OUR GRIDS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST...WE ONLY GAVE SLIGHT
POPS (ACTUALLY NONE SOUTHEAST OF ALBANY AS RIDGING ALOFT WILL LIKELY
PREVENT ANY UPWARD MOTION AND RESULTANT SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SINCE THE COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE OUR WEST TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...MIGHT ACTUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT..ALTHOUGH REMNANTS OF THOSE STORMS COULD CERTAINLY MOVE
FURTHER EAST.
DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S EVERYWHERE MAKING IT A MUGGY
NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 60S...CLOSER TO 70 IN THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MORE ORGANIZED UPPER DYNAMICS...A
LITTLE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND CORE...MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN ORGANIZED BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL LARGELY
BE BASED AT THE SURFACE AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL DO NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS...BUT MAYBE MORE OF A VERY HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL BASED ON THE VERY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES AROUND TWO
INCHES REGION WIDE.
GUIDANCE WAS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIES
RAINFALL WILL TAKE PLACE. THE REALLY MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO
POTENTIALLY RECEIVE AN INCH OR BETTER OF RAINFALL.
INITIALLY...NORTHERN AREAS WILL GET HIT EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.
WE ARE STILL NOT READY TO ISSUE ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES YET...AS THE
BULK OF THE RAIN WILL NOT FALL UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY AND THE
CONFIDENCE OF FLASH FLOODING IS BELOW 50 PERCENT DUE TO SOMEWHAT DRY
CONDITIONS GOING INTO THIS EVENT. MORE ABOUT HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES CAN
BE FOUND IN OUR HYDROLOGICAL SECTION.
THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS OF LINGERING UPPER ENERGY AND A LOW
LEVEL FEATURE FOR ONE LAST ROUND OF LOW LEVEL FORCING AS THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS EAST AND SOUTH. SO...LINGERING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING IN MOST
PLACES...BUT THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON HOW CLOUDS IT
REMAINS. THE 00Z NAM MOS NUMBERS WERE COOLER BASED ON MORE CLOUDS
WHILE THE MAV MOS NUMBERS INDICATED PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.
FOR NOW...WENT WITH THE MAV/MET MIX BUT LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER
MET NUMBERS. THIS WOULD GIVE HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 AROUND THE CAPITAL
REGION...LOWER TO MID 80S FURTHER SOUTH...70S WELL NORTH AND WEST.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGH HOLDING WELL INTO THE 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS
THURSDAY WITH CLOUDS GIVING TO A FEW LATE TIME SUNNY BREAKS AND ONLY
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTHWEST TO
LOWER 80S SOUTH OF ALBANY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT EXITS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
THE ENTIRE REGION TO ENJOY SOME TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS
AND TSTMS TO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.
LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. GETTING
WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS POINT FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST
OF THE SHOWERS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
06Z WEDNESDAY. AT KALB HAVE INDICATED VCSH IN THE FORECAST AFTER 23Z
TUESDAY...AND AFTER 21Z AT KGFL. A BRIEF PERIOD OF VCSH HAS ALSO
BEEN FORECAST FOR KGFL TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO A BATCH OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM LAKE ONTARIO. AT KPOU/KPSF...
HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY THREAT OF PCPN.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW OCCURRING AT ALL THE TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT...AND WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION...THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT AND
HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY.
SOUTH WINDS AT KGFL/KPSF/KPOU OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE 8 KTS OR
LESS...BUT AT KALB THE SPEEDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 KTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL THE TAF SITES ON
TUESDAY TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 16 TO 22 KTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 15 KTS
AT KALB.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY TODAY OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAKE PLACE.
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MORE POSSIBLE.
A GUSTY SOUTH WIND WILL BE 10 TO 20 MPH.
A WET AND UNSETTLED PERIOD EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
RH VALUES SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 60 TO
80 PERCENT RANGE. ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH
OR MORE OF RAINFALL.
A DRYING TREND EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND MOHAWK VALLEY TODAY. SOME OF THESE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL RESULTING WITH SOME PONDING OF WATER. ONLY AN OUTSIDE OF
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW...AND ONE...IF NOT
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG IT...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE...TO LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SCATTERED
EVERYWHERE ELSE. BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY WITH POTENTIAL FOR PONDING OF WATER.
WE ARE FORECASTING AN AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO
PRODUCE SOME SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON SOME RIVERS AND
STREAMS. A COUPLE SPOTS LIKE DELTA DAM AND UTICA COULD REACH ACTION
STAGE.
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL DO HAVE THE REMOTE
POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING BUT RIGHT NOW...THE THREAT
OF THAT WAS LOWER THAN 50 PERCENT SO NO FLASH FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
WERE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT. KEEP IN MIND ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD
PRODUCE LOCAL AMOUNTS WELL OVER 2 INCHES.
STAY TUNED.
DRIER WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD LATER THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/NAS
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
911 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2014
...Update to synopsis...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 911 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A minor upper level wave was moving across Colorado at 12Z. This feature
was the partial impetus for scattered convection across the Colorado
Plains and western Kansas this morning. The KDDC pwat was 1.07" this
morning, or between the 50th/75th percentile. KDDC WSR-88D was indicating
returned power this morning and also in regional radar mosaic.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
At the time of this writing (just after 0830 UTC), a small mesoscale
convective system (MCS) was slowly dissolving as it moved
east-southeast across southwestern Kansas. There were other weakly
organized storms across northwestern Kansas. There appeared to be a
slow warming in infrared cold cloud tops associated with the western
Kansas convection as we head toward the early morning hours. Water
vapor and RAP analysis suggested a weak shortwave trough from
southern Wyoming down into central Colorado. This feature will allow
the redevelopment of the southeastern Colorado leeside low with
south-southeast winds resuming by mid to late morning across
portions of southwestern Kansas. Winds in the wake of this morning`s
MCS will be light and one or two convergence zones will likely set
up at the surface where south to southeast winds of 12 to 15 knots
will converge into areas of weak or nearly calm winds over portions
of west central and/or northwestern Kansas. These convergence areas
at the surface will foster development of surface-based
thunderstorms in the 20-22Z time frame just about anywhere across
far east-central/southeast Colorado and/or western Kansas. The NAM12
shows a band of enhanced mid level flow from the west-northwest
across eastern Colorado and western Kansas of 28 to 34 knots
(500mb)...providing ample enough deep layer shear for supercell
structures with the strongest discrete convection. Any supercell
storms which develop would move almost due south given the mid level
flow direction out of the west-northwest. It is unclear how long
discrete thunderstorm phase will last, but back on Sunday there was
a supercell storm that rolled south for 4+ hours (eastern Oklahoma
Panhandle into the northeastern Texas Panhandle) before becoming
absorbed by other convection and transitioning to an MCS. The
CAPE/Shear profile does not look all that dissimilar from the
Sunday event. Should a supercell storm form and thrive in this
environment, maximum hail size of tennis balls will be possible
(local research /Large Hail Parameter/ in the upper single digits
also supports this maximum hail size). The thinking is that any
such hail event of that size would be very isolated and probably
brief with many of the hail reports being half dollar to 2-inch in
diameter. We increased POPs to 60 percent and included "Heavy
Rain" in the grids given the continued very moist environment and
impressive QPF signals from the WRF high- resolution models...as
well as the ECMWF. POPs may need to be increased further (to
categorical/80+) later on today as mesoscale details emerge.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A weak upper level ridge is progged to move through the Rockies
Wednesday, then through the Plains Thursday before exiting stage
right on Friday. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is
expected to move into the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West
Wednesday and Thursday then into the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains Friday into this weekend. A trough of low pressure at the
surface will intensify across eastern Colorado as this feature
approaches bringing southerly winds to western Kansas through the
weekend. An exiting MCS may bring scattered thunderstorms to south
central Kansas Wednesday morning but should exit the area by noon. A
slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night, otherwise expect mostly cloudy
skies. Clouds decrease in coverage Thursday with partly cloudy skies
expected through Saturday. A chance of thunderstorms will then be
possible across northern Kansas and the I-70 corridor Saturday night
as lift increases due to an upper level shortwave moving through
across Nebraska. Otherwise expect a slight increase in cloud cover.
Upper level ridging looks to build into the southern Rockies by the
beginning of next week. This should suppress any significant weather
across western Kansas with partly cloudy skies. Highs throughout the
extended period start out in the upper 80s Wednesday with lower 90s
expected Thursday through the weekend. Highs in the mid to upper 90s
are possible early next week. Lows start out in the upper 60s
Thursday morning with lower 70s anticipated through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
VFR conditions will prevail this morning into this afternoon with
scattered high clouds. Winds will generally be from the south at
10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots by late morning. Winds then
shift to more of a southeasterly direction this afternoon. A
chance of thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into
the evening bringing brief periods of MVFR conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 65 87 67 / 60 60 20 30
GCK 85 64 87 67 / 60 60 20 30
EHA 84 64 90 66 / 60 50 20 30
LBL 87 64 90 68 / 60 60 20 30
HYS 80 64 85 67 / 40 40 20 30
P28 86 68 87 69 / 40 60 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
639 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2014
...Updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
At the time of this writing (just after 0830 UTC), a small mesoscale
convective system (MCS) was slowly dissolving as it moved
east-southeast across southwestern Kansas. There were other weakly
organized storms across northwestern Kansas. There appeared to be a
slow warming in infrared cold cloud tops associated with the western
Kansas convection as we head toward the early morning hours. Water
vapor and RAP analysis suggested a weak shortwave trough from
southern Wyoming down into central Colorado. This feature will allow
the redevelopment of the southeastern Colorado leeside low with
south-southeast winds resuming by mid to late morning across
portions of southwestern Kansas. Winds in the wake of this morning`s
MCS will be light and one or two convergence zones will likely set
up at the surface where south to southeast winds of 12 to 15 knots
will converge into areas of weak or nearly calm winds over portions
of west central and/or northwestern Kansas. These convergence areas
at the surface will foster development of surface-based
thunderstorms in the 20-22Z time frame just about anywhere across
far east-central/southeast Colorado and/or western Kansas. The NAM12
shows a band of enhanced mid level flow from the west-northwest
across eastern Colorado and western Kansas of 28 to 34 knots
(500mb)...providing ample enough deep layer shear for supercell
structures with the strongest discrete convection. Any supercell
storms which develop would move almost due south given the mid level
flow direction out of the west-northwest. It is unclear how long
discrete thunderstorm phase will last, but back on Sunday there was
a supercell storm that rolled south for 4+ hours (eastern Oklahoma
Panhandle into the northeastern Texas Panhandle) before becoming
absorbed by other convection and transitioning to an MCS. The
CAPE/Shear profile does not look all that dissimilar from the
Sunday event. Should a supercell storm form and thrive in this
environment, maximum hail size of tennis balls will be possible
(local research /Large Hail Parameter/ in the upper single digits
also supports this maximum hail size). The thinking is that any
such hail event of that size would be very isolated and probably
brief with many of the hail reports being half dollar to 2-inch in
diameter. We increased POPs to 60 percent and included "Heavy
Rain" in the grids given the continued very moist environment and
impressive QPF signals from the WRF high- resolution models...as
well as the ECMWF. POPs may need to be increased further (to
categorical/80+) later on today as mesoscale details emerge.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A weak upper level ridge is progged to move through the Rockies
Wednesday, then through the Plains Thursday before exiting stage
right on Friday. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is
expected to move into the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West
Wednesday and Thursday then into the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains Friday into this weekend. A trough of low pressure at the
surface will intensify across eastern Colorado as this feature
approaches bringing southerly winds to western Kansas through the
weekend. An exiting MCS may bring scattered thunderstorms to south
central Kansas Wednesday morning but should exit the area by noon. A
slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night, otherwise expect mostly cloudy
skies. Clouds decrease in coverage Thursday with partly cloudy skies
expected through Saturday. A chance of thunderstorms will then be
possible across northern Kansas and the I-70 corridor Saturday night
as lift increases due to an upper level shortwave moving through
across Nebraska. Otherwise expect a slight increase in cloud cover.
Upper level ridging looks to build into the southern Rockies by the
beginning of next week. This should suppress any significant weather
across western Kansas with partly cloudy skies. Highs throughout the
extended period start out in the upper 80s Wednesday with lower 90s
expected Thursday through the weekend. Highs in the mid to upper 90s
are possible early next week. Lows start out in the upper 60s
Thursday morning with lower 70s anticipated through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
VFR conditions will prevail this morning into this afternoon with
scattered high clouds. Winds will generally be from the south at
10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots by late morning. Winds then
shift to more of a southeasterly direction this afternoon. A
chance of thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into
the evening bringing brief periods of MVFR conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 65 87 67 / 60 60 20 30
GCK 85 64 87 67 / 60 60 20 30
EHA 84 64 90 66 / 60 50 20 30
LBL 87 64 90 68 / 60 60 20 30
HYS 80 64 85 67 / 40 40 20 30
P28 86 68 87 69 / 40 60 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
609 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
Quiet weather was in place across the local forecast area early this
morning with light winds, high clouds, and departing surface high
pressure. Farther to the west in western KS and eastern CO, a
loosely organized convective system was making slow eastward
progression. This convection seemed tied to a weak upper disturbance
that was making a very slow eastward progression out of CO and NM
through weak flow aloft. Additional weak, but seemingly more
well-defined upper waves were located over southern California and
eastern Montana. While the CA wave will be slow to move east, it
seems that the Montana system may dive southeast and possibly
interact with the system in eastern Colorado by tonight.
In terms of the local forecast and sensible weather through tonight,
expect the area of showers and thunderstorms to continue with slow
but steady eastward development. Generally speaking, the NMM, ARW,
and HRRR seem to be handling the situation well through the day,
which coincides fairly well with larger scale model guidance as
well. This suggests that showers and a few storms may encroach upon
the Highway 81 corridor by early afternoon and possibly build into
far eastern KS by early evening. All indications suggest a tight
instability gradient from east to west which also gradually
progresses to the east with time. This should prevent the convection
from developing more quickly east today even if a few cold pools
push out from convection. As the instability does arrive, it will be
rather meager, as will wind shear profiles, and even strong storms
seem quite unlikely through tonight. All told, much of the area
stands a good chance to see at least some precip by sunrise on
Wednesday, although amounts may be spotty.
Aside from precip, temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s
today, with some question in just how warm it will get depending
largely on cloud cover as more widespread clouds could hold everyone
in the lower 80s. Winds will be light through tonight and dewpoints
will remain fairly comfortable...in the low to middle 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A slow upper shortwave trough translates southeast over the CO
Rockies and central plains on Wednesday afternoon. Position and
timing from guidance was fairly similar in developing a swath of
showers and thunderstorms across the CWA from the overnight into
the afternoon hours. Ample southerly moisture transport is aided by
PWAT values in excess of 1.6 inches through the period. Have
increased chances across the area during the day, gradually
tapering off west to east by Wednesday evening. Do not expect
severe storms with main threat being heavy rain and flash
flooding.
Occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected from Thursday
onward as weaker upper perturbations within the mean flow give
much uncertainty where mesoscale boundaries or areas of lift are
positioned for scattered convection to form. Similar to previous
trends, late afternoon into early evening time frame during peak
heating and minimal inhibition is likely.
The weekend forecast, for the most part, appears dry Friday and
Saturday with temporary ridging over the area. On Saturday, H5 flow
begins to back and increase toward the southwest in response to a
deepening upper trof across the western CONUS. By the late afternoon
period, a moist and unstable airmass in place may trigger scattered
thunderstorms along/ahead of a cold front stretched over central KS
into south central NE. A few storms may be severe in proximity to
the convergent boundary where surface based CAPE in excess of 3000
J/KG complements effective shear near 40 kts. Activity weakens as it
progresses eastward by Sunday with some indication of redevelopment
by late afternoon across east central areas. Otherwise trends from
the GFS/ECMWF depict weak trofs rotating through the main wave as
the frontal boundary becomes a focal point for additional scattered
convection Sunday evening into Monday.
Minor adjustments were made to temperatures in the extended.
Insulation from cloud cover and rainfall Wednesday should hold highs
to the low 80s throughout the afternoon. Sunshine returns Thursday
as consensus guidance warrants increased highs in the mid and upper 80s.
With ample sunshine and increased boundary layer mixing through the
weekend, warming trend continues with highs in the upper 80s to low
90s by Monday. Overnight lows follow suit from the mid 60s Thursday
to the low 70s Friday into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
Current occasionally reduced visibility should be all VFR by 12Z.
Then expect VFR through the TAF period aside from brief reduced
conditions with any thunderstorm activity. Timing of ts through
the TAF period has very low confidence. Expect morning precip to
remain west of TAF sites although it could come close to MHK. Late
day activity should be scattered and timing is very much in
question due to lack of a strong focus for storms...so have taken
a VCTS approach for several hours while it will more likely be a
few periods of TS at/near TAF sites during the VCTS time frame.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1158 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
ELEMENTS OVER THE TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB. THIS AREA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH. SOUTH OF
THIS...PRECIP IS LESS WIDESPREAD...BUT A FEW STRONGER SEGMENTS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE NOTED.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEADIER RAIN IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY BUT
STEADILY EASTWARD AS THE INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS LOTS OF BREAKS IN THE PRECIP...LEADING TO SOME DOUBT IN THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIP FROM THE METRO DETROIT COUNTIES TO THE OHIO
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TO FILL IN SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST UPPER FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
LOOKS TO FAVOR THE AREA NORTH OF METRO DETROIT AND SOUTH OF THE TRI
CITIES...WHICH HAS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL...GIVEN
THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE...CATEGORICAL POPS EVERYWHERE LOOK
GOOD. MAIN HAZARD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH TRAINING STORMS. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAINLY FROM METRO
DETROIT TO THE OHIO BORDER...BUT OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL
LIMIT THE THREAT. EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND
OVER THE TRI-CITIES BY MIDAFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 710 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
//DISCUSSION...
A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE FROM
CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO SW LOWER MICHIGAN AT PRESS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD THE REST OF THE WAY OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING
AND THEN PERSIST MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS HELPING TO FOCUS THE RAINFALL IS ALSO PRODUCING IFR
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT MBS DOWN TO ABOUT FNT WHICH WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD AS THE RAIN FILLS IN OVER THE REGION. A BRIEF RETURN TO
ENTRY LEVEL VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE RAIN AREA BUT THEN FILL
BACK IN WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. IFR/LIFR
CEILING AND IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
NEARLY CALM WIND AND MOIST SURFACE AIR LEFT BEHIND BY THE RAIN BUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE DOWN FROM NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL LEAD TO IMPROVEMENT DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR DTW... THE LATEST RADAR TREND AT PRESS TIME INDICATES THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SET UP INITIALLY TO THE WEST OF DTW...BUT THEN
FILL IN TOWARD THE TERMINAL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND LAST THROUGH
THE DAY. RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
EVENT TOTAL.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM TIMING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 403 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE LARGER SCALE WEATHER FEATURES HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED IF NOT STRONGER IN MAGNITUDE. THE RESULT WILL
BE A WET DAY AROUND SE MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE MORNING AND LAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL
BE CONCERNED WITH THE PROGRESS OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO BORDER BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A DISTINCT JET MAX OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WHERE THE TROUGH IS PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
CANADIAN TROUGH/LOW. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET IS SETTING UP
TO SUPPORT ENHANCED LIFT ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THESE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES ARE WELL-ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS CONSISTING OF 850 MB DEWPOINT AROUND 13C,
700 MB DEWPOINT AROUND 5C, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2
INCHES. THE RESULT IS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT PRESS TIME WHICH WILL EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 00Z MODELS COLLECTIVELY HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON THE BULK MASS AND MOISTURE FIELDS...BUT THE NAM AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP ARE MORE THAN A SERVICEABLE REPRESENTATION OF
THE SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION SETTING UP PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM THROUGH BUFKIT ANALYSIS
INDICATE MBE VECTORS ALIGNED WITH THE MEAN FLOW...WHICH IS A HEAVY
RAINFALL SIGNATURE...BUT HIGH-RES RUNS OF THE HRRR AND WRF-NMM ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IS THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN IN THE GFS AND
ECMWF. THIS IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO HOLD OFF ON FLOOD HEADLINES FOR
NOW BUT PLAN TO HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF 1-2 INCH TOTALS AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH
THE DAY...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF SE MICHIGAN.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
TAKE THE RAIN SHIELD OUT OF SE MICHIGAN BY MID EVENING. THAT WILL
LEAVE THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH/LOW TO PIVOT SOUTHWARD DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL HELP DRY THINGS OUT FROM A RAINFALL PERSPECTIVE BUT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH WEAK GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTING
BOTH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE SAGINAW
VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DURING
THE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION WILL BE SLOW UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE PSEUDO ZONAL UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SOME FAIRLY BIG CHANGES IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. NWP IS NOW MORE
UNIFORM/LESS NOISY IN BRINGING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE
DAKOTAS DIRECTLY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER FAVORABLE ZONE OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS
ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP SHOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WITH JET
ENERGY THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THIS CONCURRENT FORCING SHOULD ALWAYS GIVE ONE
PAUSE AND CERTAINLY DOES HERE TOO. THE PROBLEM IS THE FORECASTED
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO BE STABLE WITH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION CENTERED BETWEEN 700-600MB. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO
BYPASS THIS FEATURE...WHICH WILL REQUIRE A HIGH AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE. NAM IS SUPPORTIVE OF THIS...BUT WITH IT/S HIGH BIAS
IT/S NOT EXACTLY A STRONG ENDORSEMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO DRY
HERE...AS THIS LOOKS LIKE A CALL FOR THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE 70S NORTH...TO NEAR 80 FOR
THE HIGH SFC PRESSURE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GLACIAL RIDGE.
STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RISES WILL THEN LEAD
TO STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. NWP SIGNAL
IN THE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THERE WILL ALSO BE A HEAVY COMPONENT
FROM THE STABLE LAKE AGGREGATE. DRY WEATHER WITH A MODERATING
AIRMASS SHOULD LEAD TO VERY FAVORABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN
EASTERLY FLOW TRAJECTORY SEEMS TO BE PLAYING SOME HAVOC WITH
FORECASTED SFC TEMPERATURES...BUT READINGS SHOULD PUSH 80 DEGREES
THURSDAY AND EXCEED 80 DEGREES BY FRIDAY.
MARINE...
ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK FOR THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AS A PAIR OF FRONTS WORK THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST
FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG A LINE FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE
ERIE...SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL VEER WINDS FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
WEDNESDAY...USHERING MODEST NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP WAVE
HEIGHTS IN CHECK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......DT
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
710 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE FROM
CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO SW LOWER MICHIGAN AT PRESS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD THE REST OF THE WAY OVER SE MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING
AND THEN PERSIST MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS HELPING TO FOCUS THE RAINFALL IS ALSO PRODUCING IFR
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT MBS DOWN TO ABOUT FNT WHICH WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD AS THE RAIN FILLS IN OVER THE REGION. A BRIEF RETURN TO
ENTRY LEVEL VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE RAIN AREA BUT THEN FILL
BACK IN WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. IFR/LIFR
CEILING AND IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
NEARLY CALM WIND AND MOIST SURFACE AIR LEFT BEHIND BY THE RAIN BUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE DOWN FROM NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND LESS
HUMID AIR WILL LEAD TO IMPROVEMENT DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR DTW... THE LATEST RADAR TREND AT PRESS TIME INDICATES THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SET UP INITIALLY TO THE WEST OF DTW...BUT THEN
FILL IN TOWARD THE TERMINAL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND LAST THROUGH
THE DAY. RAINFALL IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
EVENT TOTAL.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM TIMING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 403 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE LARGER SCALE WEATHER FEATURES HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED IF NOT STRONGER IN MAGNITUDE. THE RESULT WILL
BE A WET DAY AROUND SE MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE MORNING AND LAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL
BE CONCERNED WITH THE PROGRESS OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO BORDER BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A DISTINCT JET MAX OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WHERE THE TROUGH IS PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
CANADIAN TROUGH/LOW. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET IS SETTING UP
TO SUPPORT ENHANCED LIFT ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THESE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES ARE WELL-ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS CONSISTING OF 850 MB DEWPOINT AROUND 13C,
700 MB DEWPOINT AROUND 5C, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2
INCHES. THE RESULT IS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT PRESS TIME WHICH WILL EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 00Z MODELS COLLECTIVELY HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON THE BULK MASS AND MOISTURE FIELDS...BUT THE NAM AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP ARE MORE THAN A SERVICEABLE REPRESENTATION OF
THE SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION SETTING UP PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM THROUGH BUFKIT ANALYSIS
INDICATE MBE VECTORS ALIGNED WITH THE MEAN FLOW...WHICH IS A HEAVY
RAINFALL SIGNATURE...BUT HIGH-RES RUNS OF THE HRRR AND WRF-NMM ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IS THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN IN THE GFS AND
ECMWF. THIS IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO HOLD OFF ON FLOOD HEADLINES FOR
NOW BUT PLAN TO HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF 1-2 INCH TOTALS AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH
THE DAY...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF SE MICHIGAN.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
TAKE THE RAIN SHIELD OUT OF SE MICHIGAN BY MID EVENING. THAT WILL
LEAVE THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH/LOW TO PIVOT SOUTHWARD DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL HELP DRY THINGS OUT FROM A RAINFALL PERSPECTIVE BUT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH WEAK GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTING
BOTH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE SAGINAW
VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DURING
THE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION WILL BE SLOW UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE PSEUDO ZONAL UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SOME FAIRLY BIG CHANGES IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. NWP IS NOW MORE
UNIFORM/LESS NOISY IN BRINGING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE
DAKOTAS DIRECTLY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER FAVORABLE ZONE OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS
ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP SHOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WITH JET
ENERGY THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THIS CONCURRENT FORCING SHOULD ALWAYS GIVE ONE
PAUSE AND CERTAINLY DOES HERE TOO. THE PROBLEM IS THE FORECASTED
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO BE STABLE WITH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION CENTERED BETWEEN 700-600MB. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO
BYPASS THIS FEATURE...WHICH WILL REQUIRE A HIGH AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE. NAM IS SUPPORTIVE OF THIS...BUT WITH IT/S HIGH BIAS
IT/S NOT EXACTLY A STRONG ENDORSEMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO DRY
HERE...AS THIS LOOKS LIKE A CALL FOR THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE 70S NORTH...TO NEAR 80 FOR
THE HIGH SFC PRESSURE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GLACIAL RIDGE.
STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RISES WILL THEN LEAD
TO STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. NWP SIGNAL
IN THE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THERE WILL ALSO BE A HEAVY COMPONENT
FROM THE STABLE LAKE AGGREGATE. DRY WEATHER WITH A MODERATING
AIRMASS SHOULD LEAD TO VERY FAVORABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN
EASTERLY FLOW TRAJECTORY SEEMS TO BE PLAYING SOME HAVOC WITH
FORECASTED SFC TEMPERATURES...BUT READINGS SHOULD PUSH 80 DEGREES
THURSDAY AND EXCEED 80 DEGREES BY FRIDAY.
MARINE...
ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK FOR THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AS A PAIR OF FRONTS WORK THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST
FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG A LINE FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE
ERIE...SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL VEER WINDS FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
WEDNESDAY...USHERING MODEST NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP WAVE
HEIGHTS IN CHECK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
620 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SURROUNDING RADARS SHOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. EXPECT THE
CURRENT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND INTO THE
AREA BY DAYLIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND
THE 4KM WRF BOTH HAVE THE MAIN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE
HRRR BRINGS IN ANOTHER BAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT CHANCES
IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. SEVERAL
TIMES LATELY THERE HAVE BEEN MORE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE
HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE MUCAPE IS BEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT A LITTLE REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT THERE
COULD BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN TURN INTO A RAIN EVENT DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE
LONG TERM. THE ZONAL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATE. THIS WILL
HELP KICK UP PULSES OF ENERGY INTO THE HIGH/GREAT PLAINS THAT WILL
GIVE US A SHOT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST PERIODS OF THE LONG
TERM. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES IN AND THROUGH THE AREA...ALONG WITH AN INCREASED LOW-
LEVEL JET AND POTENTIAL STRONG CONVERGENCE NEAR THE NOSE OF THE JET
NEARBY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...JUDGING BY
SEVERE PARAMETERS...FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...BUT NARROWING DOWN A
DAY THAT IT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IS TOO DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY NOW.
TEMPERATURES APPEARED TO BE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE CHALLENGE FOR TODAY. A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINAL AREA SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE
A BREAK THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OR WHETHER
THERE WILL BE MORE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY WITH LESS DURING
THE NIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT SOME VCTS DURING THE DAY BUT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR THE TX LINE WILL MOVE EAST INTO TX BY ABOUT
SUNRISE. DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER SE COLORADO WILL TURN/BACK WINDS TO
SWLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS BY AFTERNOON...BRINGING DRIER AIR IN FROM
WRN NM. MAIN STORM ACTIVITY TODAY EXPECTED FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS EWD TO THE FAR NE PLAINS. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
UNION AND COLFAX COUNTIES. ISOLD MAINLY DRY SHOWERS OR STORMS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH SKC OR A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WEST.
33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...337 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER. THIS INCLUDES THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
EAST WITH THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS LATER TODAY INTO EVENING. AFTER TONIGHT... A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OR FAR EASTERN PLAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK...BUT HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MONITORING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. EARLY
STAGES OF A DEVELOPING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX UNDERWAY
NORTHWEST OF TUCUMCARI THAT IS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE LATEST 13KM RAP
AND 03Z HRRR ADVERTISED IF NOT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. SHALLOW
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EASTWARD COUPLED WITH A BROAD REGION
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AIDING THIS EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT
THAT IS ALIGNED ALONG A NW-SE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH A
STRONG/WELL- DEFINED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT STRETCHING FROM
NORTH OF SANTA ROSA SEWD TOWARD THE LUBBOCK AREA. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/WX GRIDS BUT WILL LIKELY REVISIT JUST BEFORE
PUBLISHING.
TRENDS AFTER THIS MORNING/S CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WEAKENS AND/OR
EXITS TO THE EAST BETWEEN 13Z-15Z WILL BE MORE COMPLICATED... AS
WESTWARD-PUSHING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY REINFORCE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FIELDS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
REGARDLESS... ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WILL REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW AND WITH MID- LEVEL DRYING AND
SOME LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY NEED FOR
EXPANSION OF ISOLATED POPS EAST OF THE DIVIDE THE RIO GRANDE. DID
BEEF UP POPS FOR SC AREAS AS WELL AS THE FAR NE WHERE LOW LEVEL
WINDS MAY GRADUALLY BACK TO MORE EASTERLY LATE IN THE DAY
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THERE.
LESS ACTIVE TONIGHT INTO WED AM AS MID-LEVEL DRYING ADVANCES
EASTWARD BENEATH A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH LESS DEFINED
INDICATORS FOR LARGE SCALE UPWARD FORCING. EXPECT TO SEE A FAIRLY
WELL DEFINED SURFACE DRYLINE WED PM NEAR THE NM/TX LINE WITH A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER SE COLO. THE GFS DEVELOPS A WEAKER
SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH WOULD AGAIN FAVOR THE FAR NE
PLAINS FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT SEVERE BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS
TRENDING WAY DOWN SAVE FOR AREAS NEAR THE TX LINE AND POSSIBLY NE
CORNER. EVEN DRIER/LESS ACTIVE WITH INCREASED WINDINESS FOR THU
WITH AGAIN THE FOCUS FOR STORMS NEAR THE NM/TX LINE ALONG THE
DRYLINE. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SPREADS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY WITH DRYLINE REGIME
PERSISTING. 500MB HEIGHTS THEN REBOUND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
STRONGER RIDGE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD LOSE INFLUENCE OF
THE WESTERLIES BY MON/TUE...AND SIGNS THAT IT MAY PERSIST. KJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO TO MONDAY EXPECTED TODAY. BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WITH SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY THAN MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER SE COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND DRY AIR FROM
THE WEST BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY...SCOURING OUT MORE GULF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE FAR NE PLAINS.
DRY WESTERLIES WIN OUT AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY AS LEE SFC TROUGH
STRENGTHENS FURTHER. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH HIGH HAINES VALUES AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION
RATES. WEST WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE A POSSIBILITY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PRIMARILY FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE FINALLY LOSE THE WESTERLIES
ALOFT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOUR CORNERS HIGH BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN AZ AND SW NM
SUNDAY...THEN OVER CENTRAL NM MONDAY. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAY DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. MODELS HINTING THAT MONSOON MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO SEEP
NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. 33
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
748 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO OUR REGION FROM OFFSHORE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MOVE AWAY TODAY...AND YIELD TO A SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 740 AM TUESDAY...
SHORTWAVE MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...AND
1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WILL BOTH
DRIFT EAST AND LOSE INFLUENCE OVER CENTRAL NC TODAY. A ROUGHLY EAST-
WEST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS IN THE H7-925 LAYER OVER THE SAVANNAH
BASIN...WHICH INCLUDES THE OLD LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE THAT CROSSED
CENTRAL NC OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NC
THIS AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE/LIFT/MOISTURE POOLING WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM SC NORTHWARD INTO THE
NC SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN-WESTERN NC PIEDMONT AS EARLY AS LATE
MORNING PER LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE. GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY LOW-MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW A MULTI-CELL CLUSTER
OR TWO TO PROPAGATE NORTH...IN A PROGRESSIVELY WEAKENING
STATE...ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PIEDMONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 5.25-5.5 C/KM AND ASSOCIATED WEAK MLCAPE OF
1500 J/KG AND MOSTLY LESS...AND WEAK FLOW THROUGHOUT THE
TROPOSPHERE...WILL LIMIT STORM INTENSITY; SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. GENERALLY PERSISTENCE HIGH TEMPS...EXCEPT UP TO A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF MON IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...IN THE
MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THROUGH
AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LINGERING WEAK INSTABILITY AND
MINIMAL CINH OVER CENTRAL NC...AS WELL AS THE APPROACH OF AN MCV
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...WARRANT A
SLIGHT-SMALL CHANCE A SHOWER OR STORM OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...WITH AREAS OF STRATUS LIKELY TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS INVOF THE MS RIVER THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST...ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS WITH ASSOCIATED
10-20 METER MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...WED-WED NIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE LEE LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC/VA WED AFTERNOON AND
INTO EASTERN NC/VA WED NIGHT. THE LEE TROUGH AND OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AROUND
20 KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW AND COLD POOL MERGERS WILL THEN SUPPORT A
GENERAL ENE PROPAGATION OF MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS ACROSS CENTRAL NC
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK - LESS THAN 5.75 C/KM - STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS...PARTICULARLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE MORE ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/COLD POOLS. STORMS SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE
TROUGH AXIS OVERNIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT TO
3 AM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. LOWS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL NC WILL TREND
DOWNWARD ON THURSDAY...AND REMAIN BELOW CLIMO ON FRIDAY...AS THE SFC
BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING BY TO OUR
EAST AND NORTHEAST (24 HOUR CLIMO POP FOR CENTRAL NC IS AROUND 30
PERCENT). RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY
WILL BE THURSDAY...BECAUSE BY LATE FRIDAY...THE SFC TROUGH WILL
BECOME REFOCUSED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND PWAT WILL BE BACK ON THE
INCREASE.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE TO OR ABOVE
CLIMO...AS A BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY REMAINS INVOF OUR CWA...AND AMPLE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN POOLED ACROSS THE AREA. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT DURING THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD...BULK SHEAR ISN`T THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO
WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY MAY BE PLENTIFUL AND WE CAN NEVER RULE OUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE TSTM THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BULK SHEAR PARAMETERS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED OR WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME.
AS FOR TEMPS...LATEST MEX SHOWS TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS NEAR 70.
HOWEVER...FORECAST LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
(1410-1420M)...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE FOR THIS TIME. TEMPS SHOULD TREND COOLER LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND RAIN
CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 748 AM TUESDAY...
SSE FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...IN RETURN FLOW AROUND OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE...HAS RESULTED IN SCT TO BKN MVFR RANGE CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING THAT WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...MAINLY AT
KINT/KGSO/KFAY/KRDU...BEFORE LIFTING ABOVE 3000 FT WITH HEATING. IN
ADDITION...A CLUSTER OR TWO OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH
INTO CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE APT TO LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT OWING TO THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES ALOFT. CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION
AT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL IS LOW - RELATIVELY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. - BUT WITH A RELATIVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT
KFAY...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE
MIDDAY TO MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS OF IFR-MVFR STRATUS ARE APT TO
REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT-EARLY WED.
OUTLOOK: A GOOD CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS AREA-WIDE ON
WED AND FRI...WITH LESSER CHANCES...MAINLY AT EASTERN TERMINALS...ON
THU.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...MWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
634 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS IN THE DAYS
AHEAD...ACCOMPANIED BY DEVELOPMENT OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH. THIS
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES RISING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED WITH THE DAYBREAK
UPDATE TO SHIFT THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO INCLUDE MORNING
HOURS. REPORTS FROM A LOCAL HAM OPERATOR INDICATE RAIN-RATES
BENEATH THE HEAVIER CELLS IS OVER 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR. THUS FAR
THE CELLS HAVE SHOWN A SLOW DRIFT NORTH. NO OTHER CHANGES...SOME
AREAS WILL GET NOTABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY. THE PREVIOUS
MORNING DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA IS NOW
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
IS DISCERNIBLE WITH SHOWERS IGNITING ALONG IT WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS FEATURE WILL INFLUENCE NEAR
TERM WEATHER BRINGING INCREASING POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE WHICH MAY SHIFT CONVECTION FARTHER WEST IN THE MIDDLE
AND LATE AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE IS POOLED ACROSS SC AND THIS
IS WHERE THE HIGHER POPS WILL RESIDE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
DAY.
OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AS PRECIPITABLE
WATERS RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES WITH SOMEWHAT OF A SLUGGISH STORM
MOTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME
OVER CONFINED LOCATIONS. STORMS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY SOUTH TO
NORTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE JUNE.
AS RETURN FLOW GEARS UP...MINIMUMS INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN BALMY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYBREAK JUNE 25TH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH AND WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
KEEP THE PERIOD ACTIVE WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH BEING
PROMINENT FEATURES. THE REMAINS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA LATER WED INTO THU BUT THIS FEATURE WILL BE VERY WEAK BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THE AREA...LACKING ANY MID LEVEL PUSH. THE BOUNDARY
MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT AND AS A
RESULT WILL CARRY MENTIONABLE POP WED INTO THU. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE DEEP MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WED LINGER OVER 2
INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD
TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION. PROFILES DO NOT SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE THREAT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM.
STORM MOTIONS AROUND 10 KT WILL INCREASE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL.
PATTERN ALOFT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE ON THU WITH MID
LEVEL FLOW TURNING WESTERLY. THIS WILL CAUSE A DROP IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO FOR
LATE JUNE. MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL AFFECT STORM COVERAGE BUT STILL
THINK CHC POP IS WARRANTED. AS IS THE CASE ON WED THE SEA BREEZE AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE ACTIVE BUT STORM MOTIONS COULD BE WELL UNDER
10 MPH. ALTHOUGH DEEPER MOISTURE IS LESS THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL
AGAIN POSE A FLOODING THREAT.
HIGHS WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO...LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT ON FRI WILL TRANSITION
TO GRADUAL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND START OF
NEXT WEEK. WEAK NATURE OF THE RIDGE LATE IN THE PERIOD LIMITS AMOUNT
OF SUBSIDENCE/DRYING...IN FACT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD. VALUES WILL RANGE FROM
1.7 TO 2 INCHES FRI THROUGH MON...ABOVE CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AT THE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP WARM MOIST AIR
INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND UNDER THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE KEEP HIGHS
IN THE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S. DEEP MOISTURE AND LIMITED
CAPPING WILL KEEP SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH ACTIVE EACH DAY.
PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE LATER IN THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO SOME
REDUCTION IN COVERAGE AND POP WILL SHOW A GENERAL DECREASING TREND
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WITH RAIN DURING THE LATE EVENING VISIBILITIES WILL
START TO COME DOWN AT LBT TO MVFR WITH THE OTHER TERMINALS AT VFR
FOR NOW. HAVE MENTION OF MVFR AT OTHER TERMINALS AS LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OFF THE COAST WORK THEIR WAY TO THE COAST. HIGH RESOLUTION
WRF AND HRRR SHOW PRECIPITATION WORKING ONTO THE COAST OF SC AND
MOVING INTO THE MYRTLES BEFORE SUNRISE AND INTO ILM AFTER SUNRISE.
MODELS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON LAST NIGHTS PRECIPITATION SO WILL PAY
ATTENTION AND INTRODUCE THE PRECIPITATION. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE
FROM THE 00Z TAFS AND HAVE ALSO MENTION CONVECTION ACROSS THE
INLAND TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. POPS HAVE INCREASED
FROM THESE MODELS AND MOIST FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDRY TO OUR SOUTH AND A WEAK VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD ALL INTERACT TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TERMINALS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH NO REAL GOOD FEEL ON WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR. WINDS WILL
VEER FROM THE E TO THE SE ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE
MORNING WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT REACHING THE INLAND TERMINALS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ENHANCING LIFT AND MOISTURE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...THERE IS A WATERSPOUT RISK MAINLY THIS
MORNING OVER THE WATERS BENEATH STRONG SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DOT
THE WATERS AS WINDS VEER TO SE AND S-SW TONIGHT. A WEAK WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH COULD TRIP OFF A FEW TSTMS OVER THE WATERS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. REMEMBER THAT WINDS AS WELL AS WAVES ARE LOCALLY
HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED. SEAS MAINLY 2-3
FEET IN A MIX OF E-ESE WAVES 2 FT EVERY 5-6 SECONDS...AND ESE
WAVES 1.5 FEET EVERY 9-10 SECONDS. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED GUSTS TO 20 KT INSHORE BETWEEN 3PM-6PM.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...GRADIENT TIGHTENS WED AS PIEDMONT TROUGH
STRENGTHENS AND BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS WILL BE A SOLID 15 KT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20 KT LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE COAST WED NIGHT INTO THU AND
DISSIPATES. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE GRADIENT AND SPEEDS WILL DROP
CLOSER TO 10 KT ON THU. SEA BREEZE WILL AGAIN DEVELOP WITH SOLID 15
KT POSSIBLE NEAR SHORE. SEAS BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT WED INTO WED NIGHT
WILL DROP BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT ON THU.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 TO 15 KT EACH DAY. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY SHORT PERIOD SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...MAC/MJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
939 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AT 13Z...A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. 12Z CRP SOUNDINGS
SHOWS PW VALUES OF 2.00 INCHES AND LCH WAS NEAR 1.80 INCHES.
CONVECTIVE TEMP IS AROUND 84 AT CRP AND AROUND 88 DEGREES AT LCH.
AT 850 MB...A MOIST AXIS EXTENDED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM BRO TO
FWD WITH 850 MB DEW PTS BETWEEN 15-17 C ACROSS SE TX. AN 850
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM SHV TO AROUND AUS. AT 700 MB...THE BEST
MSTR WAS TO THE NE OF THE REGION BUT ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED
FROM ABOUT DFW TO DRT. AT 250 MB...DIVERGENCE WAS NOTED OVER EAST
TEXAS AND ALSO OVER WEST TEXAS WITH A SPEED MAX OVER SOUTH TEXAS.
SINCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY LOW WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF
MID LEVEL BOUNDARIES AND EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...FEEL
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTN. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES AND HIGH END
CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THE RAP AND ARW ALSO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE LATER TODAY. CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL WREAK HAVOC
WITH MAX TEMPS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FCST VALUES FOR NOW. NEW
ZONES OUT BY 1000 AM. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
RADAR SHOWING A COUPLE AREAS OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING...WITH ONE
CLUSTER OF STORMS JUST SOUTHEAST OF GLS...ANOTHER EAST TO WEST
ORIENTED BAND OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS UP TOWARD JSO AND PSN...AND
ANOTHER MCS NOW MOVING THROUGH WEST TEXAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW INSTABILITY...WITH LITTLE OR NO CAPPING AS
EVIDENCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EARLY IN THE MORNING. THINK
WILL SEE EXPANDED COVERAGE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WITH SHOWERS AND
TSTRMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AFTER NOON. FOR THIS REASON HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO OR PROB30 GROUP MOST SITES TRYING TO PICK OUT THE
MOST LIKELY WINDOW. HRRR MODEL AND 4 KM WRF ALSO SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THOSE MODELS ALREADY MISSING SOME OF THE
POTENTIALLY IMPORTANT DETAILS...FOR EXAMPLE WEST TEXAS MCS. BASED
ON WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT THAT FEATURE
MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR FA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...AUGMENTING RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. 46
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
HGX RADAR AT 3 AM IS SHOWING NORTHWARD MORNING CONVECTION EXTENDING
FROM THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD OUT INTO THE
GULF. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF AND
MOVE INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WHILE DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES COMBINE TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FURTHER INLAND LATER THIS MORNING AND ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT THIS PATTERN OF LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE COAST/OFFSHORE THEN INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES TO PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HOVER AROUND TWO INCHES WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS. THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY...
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TO RECEIVE 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN WITH THE AREA`S BEST RAIN CHANCES
SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...AND THIS COULD LEAD
TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IF IT HAPPENS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MIGHT TRY TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND ON INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK...SO WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOWERING RAIN CHANCES
COME SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 42
MARINE...
RADAR SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM STREAMING
NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD SEE THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS TODAY...WITH GREATER
COVERAGE LIKELY WED AND THU. WINDS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE...BUT WILL LIKELY BUMP UP
MORE 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY HIGHER WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ALONG WITH THE INCREASING WINDS...EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE IN THAT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME. WITH THE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SCEC AND POSSIBLY SCA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
46
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
AVIATION...
00Z GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS IS CERTAINLY PAINTING A WETTER FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY. AN UPPER SPEED MAX MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS WITH A
S/W TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND STALLING OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS. PW INCREASE TO AROUND 1.7" AND K-INDEX OF 33-41 WILL BE IN
PLACE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA SO HAVE MADE SOME FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE CHANGES TO THE AREA INLAND TERMINALS WITH VCSH
BEGINNING AROUND 15Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED
BY A PROB30 WINDOW FROM 15-20Z IN THE NORTH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
17-22Z FOR THE METRO TERMINALS. AS MOIST AS THE GFS IS IT COULD BE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN/TSRA SO SOME REDUCTION IN VISBY WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED. SPEED MAX MOVES EAST AND SHRA/TSRA SHOULD
TAPER OFF BUT ANOTHER S/W CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING NEAR 00Z/WED SO
CHANGES MAY BE NEEDED IF THE AIRMASS DOESN`T GET WORKED OVER.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 91 74 89 75 91 / 50 30 60 20 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 75 89 76 90 / 60 30 60 30 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 81 87 81 89 / 30 40 50 40 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
648 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
RADAR SHOWING A COUPLE AREAS OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING...WITH ONE
CLUSTER OF STORMS JUST SOUTHEAST OF GLS...ANOTHER EAST TO WEST
ORIENTED BAND OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS UP TOWARD JSO AND PSN...AND
ANOTHER MCS NOW MOVING THROUGH WEST TEXAS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW INSTABILITY...WITH LITTLE OR NO CAPPING AS
EVIDENCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION THIS EARLY IN THE MORNING. THINK
WILL SEE EXPANDED COVERAGE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WITH SHOWERS AND
TSTRMS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AFTER NOON. FOR THIS REASON HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO OR PROB30 GROUP MOST SITES TRYING TO PICK OUT THE
MOST LIKELY WINDOW. HRRR MODEL AND 4 KM WRF ALSO SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THOSE MODELS ALREADY MISSING SOME OF THE
POTENTIALLY IMPORTANT DETAILS...FOR EXAMPLE WEST TEXAS MCS. BASED
ON WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT THAT FEATURE
MAY MAKE IT INTO OUR FA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...AUGMENTING RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE MID OR LATE AFTERNOON. 46
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...
HGX RADAR AT 3 AM IS SHOWING NORTHWARD MORNING CONVECTION EXTENDING
FROM THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD OUT INTO THE
GULF. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF AND
MOVE INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WHILE DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES COMBINE TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FURTHER INLAND LATER THIS MORNING AND ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT THIS PATTERN OF LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE COAST/OFFSHORE THEN INLAND AS THE DAY PROGRESSES TO PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
HOVER AROUND TWO INCHES WHILE THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS. THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY...
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TO RECEIVE 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN WITH THE AREA`S BEST RAIN CHANCES
SETTING UP FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...AND THIS COULD LEAD
TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IF IT HAPPENS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MIGHT TRY TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND ON INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK...SO WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOWERING RAIN CHANCES
COME SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 42
MARINE...
RADAR SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM STREAMING
NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD SEE THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS TODAY...WITH GREATER
COVERAGE LIKELY WED AND THU. WINDS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE...BUT WILL LIKELY BUMP UP
MORE 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY HIGHER WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ALONG WITH THE INCREASING WINDS...EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE IN THAT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME. WITH THE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SCEC AND POSSIBLY SCA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
46
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/
AVIATION...
00Z GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS IS CERTAINLY PAINTING A WETTER FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY. AN UPPER SPEED MAX MOVES THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS WITH A
S/W TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND STALLING OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS. PW INCREASE TO AROUND 1.7" AND K-INDEX OF 33-41 WILL BE IN
PLACE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA SO HAVE MADE SOME FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE CHANGES TO THE AREA INLAND TERMINALS WITH VCSH
BEGINNING AROUND 15Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED
BY A PROB30 WINDOW FROM 15-20Z IN THE NORTH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
17-22Z FOR THE METRO TERMINALS. AS MOIST AS THE GFS IS IT COULD BE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN/TSRA SO SOME REDUCTION IN VISBY WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED. SPEED MAX MOVES EAST AND SHRA/TSRA SHOULD
TAPER OFF BUT ANOTHER S/W CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING NEAR 00Z/WED SO
CHANGES MAY BE NEEDED IF THE AIRMASS DOESN`T GET WORKED OVER.
45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 91 74 89 75 91 / 40 30 60 20 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 75 89 76 90 / 40 30 60 30 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 81 87 81 89 / 30 40 50 40 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
613 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED BETWEEN
THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX AND THE WACO/TEMPLE/KILLEEN AREA.
THE LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY LOCATED ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
BETWEEN THE METROPLEX AND WACO WITH CELL MOVEMENT DUE EAST...SO
DIRECT IMPACT AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS APPEARS FARLY SLIM FOR THE
TIME BEING.
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY
EAST. LARGE DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN VARIOUS COMPUTER MODELS
WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AM LEANING CLOSE
TO THE NAM12 SOLUTION FOR ONSET OF CONVECTION AT AREA TERMINALS
BECAUSE IT SEAMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT FEATURES
AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. WILL INTRODUCE VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS
AROUND 22-00Z THIS EVENING AND FINE TUNE THE TIMING IN LATER FORECASTS
IF IT BECOMES NECESSARY.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/
08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN PLACE
FROM SULPHUR SPRINGS TO BURLESON TO BRECKENRIDGE. THERE WERE WEAK
GRADIENTS OF BOTH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WITH COOLER VALUES LOCATED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LOOKING AT THE
GRADIENT OF EITHER TEMPERATURE OR DEW POINT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THIS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OF THETA-E WITH A CHANGE
OF ALMOST 8 KELVIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AS A
RESULT...THINK THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY. IT MAY HOLD SOME
IDENTITY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL IF SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ACCURATE. THE 07Z RAP INDICATED THAT THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDS UP TO THE 850 MB LEVEL WHERE THE THETA-E GRADIENT IS EVEN
MORE PRONOUNCED...SHOWING A THETA-E CHANGE OF 12-16 KELVIN ALONG
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE MAIN POINT OF THIS ANALYSIS
IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS AS THROUGH IT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
REMAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA AS WE APPROACH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
OF THE DAY. IF IT STILL EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON...IT COULD BE A BIG
PLAYER IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION TODAY.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TODAY...ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS IMPORTANT FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY AS MOST GUIDANCE ADVERTISES QPF ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SOMETIME
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF WHEN THIS QPF
SHOWS UP IS THE KEY DIFFERENCE AMONGST THE MODELS. MANY OF THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW QPF OR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. IF
THIS OCCURS...THE CONVECTION THAT IS INITIATED WILL PROBABLY BE
RELATIVELY WEAK IN NATURE AND MAY BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT OVER THE BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED A NICE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. IT`S HARD TO SAY WHETHER THIS
CONVECTION WOULD BE ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE BOUNDARY OR NOT IF IT
DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. IF NOTHING ELSE...IT WILL ADD CLOUDS OVER
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWING DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO
REDUCE THE IDENTITY OF THE BOUNDARY BY WARMING THE COOL SIDE AND
KEEPING THE WARM SIDE SHIELDED FROM SUNSHINE/HEATING. IT`S
PROBABLY FOR THIS REASON THAT MOST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
MEMBERS HAVE MORNING CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.
IF THERE IS LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...THIS BOUNDARY PROBABLY HAS A BETTER CHANCE AT INITIATING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS USUALLY FAIRLY RELIABLE WHEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SIGNAL OF
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG A COMMON BOUNDARY AROUND A COMMON
TIME. THEREFORE...THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE THAT
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING RATHER THAN HOLDING
OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ONLY REASON TO DOUBT SOME OF THE MODELS SHOWING THIS MORNING
CONVECTION IS THE LACK OF RESPONSE IN THE REST OF THE MASS FIELDS
WHERE THE QPF IS LOCATED. THAT IS...SOME POSITIVE QPF SHOWS UP
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THIS SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE...HOWEVER THERE
IS NO INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND NO LOW-LEVEL
RESPONSE IN THE WIND FIELDS. BRINGING MODEL LOGIC INTO THE REAL
WORLD...THAT`S LIKE SAYING...WE`RE GOING TO HAVE RAIN...BUT NO
CLOUDS. IT DOESN`T MAKE SENSE. AS A RESULT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE MODELS ARE SIMPLY PUTTING QPF OUT THERE BECAUSE THERE`S A
BOUNDARY AND WE HAVE SOME MOISTURE AND CAPE IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.
FOR MODELS THAT DO NOT SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...THOSE SOLUTIONS REALLY RAMP UP THE CAPE AND MOISTURE
POOLING SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE MODELS
INDICATE LOWER TO MID-70S DEW POINTS POOLING UP JUST SOUTH OF THE
DFW AREA THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN OVER 4000 J/KG OF CAPE.
GRANTED...THERE IS VERY WEAK WIND SHEAR...SO EVEN IF STORMS
DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THEY PROBABLY WILL NOT BE VERY
ORGANIZED. THAT SAID...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH 4000 J/KG OF
CAPE WILL GET BIG...FAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MICROBURSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT. ALSO...IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT DEVELOP THIS MORNING...THE BOUNDARY WILL
PROBABLY MOVE A BIT WITH THE WESTERN PART OF THE BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTH. IN THIS SCENARIO THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NEAR A BOWIE
TO GRAPEVINE TO EMORY LINE BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. WITH WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A COUPLE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON
JUST IN CASE THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT.
THIS FORECAST PROBLEM SHOULD AT LEAST BE FAIRLY EASY TO FIGURE OUT
TODAY...IF WE END UP WITH SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT
PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...WE HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE AT WASHING OUT OUR BOUNDARY...MAKING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LESS LIKELY. IF THERE IS BRIEF OR NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED
STRONG STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS IN THE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE TODAY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW TODAY WILL PLAY OUT. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST MODELS HAVE THIS BOUNDARY GETTING WASHED OUT BY
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR TONIGHT...IF WE GET A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY LINGERING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...IF NOTHING GETS GOING THIS AFTERNOON...OUR ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
CONSISTENTLY SHOW A SQUALL LINE ORGANIZING LATE TONIGHT. IF THE
SQUALL LINE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH...IT WILL CREATE ITS OWN MINI-
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT COULD PROPAGATE IT SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH TEXAS
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT AS GREAT AS
IT WAS FOR YESTERDAY MORNING...MAINLY BECAUSE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
SOMEWHAT LACKING IN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS THAT HELPS BALANCE COLD-POOL STRENGTH AND
REALLY HELPS LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS BECOME ORGANIZED INTO THEIR
OWN MINI-WEATHER SYSTEM. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR...THESE STORM COMPLEXES STILL BECOME QUITE STRONG WHERE THEY
ORIGINATE...BUT TEND TO LOSE THEIR COLD POOLS AND DISSIPATE WHEN
THEY BEGIN TO PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. BECAUSE OF THE
LACK OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...ONLY WENT WITH 30 POPS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ASSUMING
THIS PANS OUT...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ALSO...MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF A STRONGER THAN NORMAL SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST TOMORROW. AT LEAST THAT`S WHAT IT
LOOKS LIKE IN THE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS. AT ANY
RATE...WITH THE CONSISTENCY OF MODELS SHOWING QPF...WITH
CLOUDS...MOVING IN FROM THE GULF COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WENT
AHEAD AND KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE WEDNESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SORT OF MEANDER SOUTH AND JUST BECOME A GENERAL
WEAKNESS ALOFT STUCK IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGES TO OUR WEST AND
EAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY A BIT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SPREADING SOME FORCING
FOR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA. AS A RESULT...KEPT
HIGHEST POP CHANCES FOR THURSDAY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
AS THIS IS FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE AND STILL WELL WITHIN
THE MODEL CONSENSUS LOCATION OF THE COL/UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS AREA.
WE WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH LITTLE CAP IN PLACE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...SO KEPT
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A
STRONG WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARDS OVER THE
ROCKIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS
RESULTING IN LAYING THE NORTHERN MEXICO UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTH
TEXAS BY FRIDAY...AND HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT INDICATE THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STAY WEST RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT
WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE
GFS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND AS
RESULT WAS RELIED UPON HEAVILY IN THIS FORECAST. THE GFS HAS UPPER
LEVEL RIDING IN PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGING ONLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
DURING THIS PERIOD AS A RESULT. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND GRADUALLY
RAISED TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IF THIS VERIFIES...WE MAY
GET INTO OUR FIRST 100 DEGREE HIGHS HERE BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. THAT`S A LONG WAYS OUT OF COURSE...BUT THE PATTERN
LOOKS HOT AND DRY FOR NOW.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 92 75 93 75 91 / 40 30 40 20 30
WACO, TX 88 73 90 73 92 / 50 30 50 20 30
PARIS, TX 91 72 90 72 89 / 30 20 40 20 40
DENTON, TX 91 73 91 73 91 / 30 30 40 20 30
MCKINNEY, TX 92 74 92 74 91 / 30 30 40 20 40
DALLAS, TX 92 75 92 74 91 / 40 30 40 20 40
TERRELL, TX 93 76 93 76 92 / 50 30 30 20 40
CORSICANA, TX 89 73 90 73 91 / 50 30 50 20 40
TEMPLE, TX 90 72 90 73 90 / 40 30 50 20 30
MINERAL WELLS, TX 89 72 90 71 90 / 50 40 30 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
30/69
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
754 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES EAST OUT OF
THE MIDWEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS WILL PULL IN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR BACK INTO THE MID APPALACHIAN AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION...MAINTAINING THE THREAT FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
A COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY...
FURTHER INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT TUESDAY...
INCREASED POPS SOME ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PIEDMONT AREAS AND INTO
THE NEW RIVER VALLEY/SE WV PER LATEST HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS OF
PERSISTENT -SHRA DEVELOPING FROM NEAR KDAN TO NEAR KBLF. MERGED
THESE INCREASED POPS INTO EXISTING POPS AROUND 18Z. NO TSRA
MENTIONED UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS OF 310 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY VEER INTO THE SOUTH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS AWAY
FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES EAST OUT
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCREASING WARM MOIST ADVECTION EXPECTED
TO FINALLY OVERCOME ANY LINGERING WEDGE...WHICH SHOULD BE
DISPLACED MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THETA E AXIS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS INTO
TONIGHT...WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH FAVORING ANOTHER
DAY WHERE ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN AN
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH ONLY A VERY LOW THREAT EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WHICH WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE/WEDGE.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STEERING WINDS/SHEAR REMAIN ANEMIC AND
WEAK...RESPECTIVELY...IMPLYING NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
HOWEVER...INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER... ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEST...WILL HELP INCREASE RAIN EFFICIENCY IN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS
THAT DRIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN NOT ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT WHERE
TRAINING OF CELLS (OR TOPOGRAPHICAL ANCHORING OF CELLS) OCCURS...
NEGLIGIBLE DYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD LIMIT THREAT TO MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE SUCH THAT NO HEADLINE APPEARS NEEDED AT THE PRESENT TIME.
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE AT LEAST A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY AS WARM ADVECTION YIELDS A
24-HOUR NET INCREASE OF ABOUT 2C AT 850 MILLIBARS...BUT WILL AGAIN
BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY PERSISTENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND TIMING/
MOVEMENT OF REDEVELOPING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED COOL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON A HEALTHY SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE NE AND MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. WHILE THE MAIN DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA
ACROSS OH/NORTHERN WV/PA...THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A RELATIVELY
POTENT LATE JUNE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WED/WED NIGHT.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PATTERN THROUGH THESE PERIODS. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAIN. INSTABILITY IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE...BUT THIS IS
PREDICATED ON FULL SUNSHINE. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ABUNDANT EARLY
MORNING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...DAYTIME INSOLATION IS IN
QUESTION...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...BETTER HEATING CAN BE EXPECTED AND THUS BETTER
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. GIVEN THIS CONSIDERATION...FEEL THAT MODEL
INSTABILITY WITH CAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND LIS TO -4 ARE
LIKELY OVERDONE. IN ADDITION...WITH THE MAIN DYNAMICS TRACKING
WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...INDICATED SHEAR IS NIL. WITH CONDITIONS AT
LEAST ONE TO TWO NOTCHES ABOVE A NORMAL PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORM
ENVIRONMENT GIVEN THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...THE THREAT FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ALBEIT
SPC DOES NOT CURRENTLY HAVE EVEN A 5 PERCENT RISK ACROSS OUR
REGION...FOCUSING MORE ON THE OH/PA REGION. QPF POTENTIAL
SIMILAR...MAINLY FOCUSED NORTH OF THE REGION. FEEL THAT WINDS
ALOFT ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE ACTIVITY MOVING ALONG.
HOWEVER...WITH PWS OVER 100 PERCENT OF NORMAL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN THE GENERALLY
LACK OF RAINFALL IN MOST AREAS RECENTLY...THIS SHOULD NOT BE A
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM.
FOR THU...MODELS NOW PAINTING A MUCH CLEARER PICTURE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE REGION
TO GREATLY LIMIT...PERHAPS EVEN END THE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE NW FLOW UPSLOPE THROUGH THE
ALLEGHANYS AND ESPECIALLY IN FAR SW VA/NW NC MOUNTAINS NEAREST THE
STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE RETAINED LOW POPS IN THESE
AREAS...BUT HAVE NOW ADVERTISED UNMENTIONABLE POPS FOR THE
PIEDMONT AND MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT.
FOR FRI...SHOULD SEE MOISTURE STARTING TO CREEP BACK TO THE
EAST...ALTHOUGH AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SHOULD MANAGE TO HOLD
ONTO ONE MORE MOSTLY SHRA/TSRA FREE DAY. HIGH CHANCE POPS WILL
SPREAD BACK INTO SW VA/NW NC AND EVEN SE WV...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
I-77.
SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR FOR THU AND
IN THE EAST FRI. OTHERWISE...WED AND MUCH OF THE PERIOD WEST OF
I-77 WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND MIN TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...
THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES ADVERTISED AMONG THE
GFS AND ECMWF GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE OVERALL THEME IS FOR A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ALOFT...E.G. 588-590DM AT 500MB AND
850MB TEMPS RISING INTO THE +20C RANGE...THE ECMWF IS
SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER AND DRIER THAN THE GFS. THE GFS ESSENTIALLY
ADVERTISES A QUASI-STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE REGION FROM
NW TO SE WITH A SERIES OF WAVES RIDING ALONG THE FRONT AND CHANCE
TO GOOD CHANCE DIURNAL TSRA ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF ADVERTISES A MUCH
STRONGER RIDGE...SUBSIDENCE...AND SHOVES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL
TO THE NE OF THE REGION. FEEL THAT THE REALITY IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE
IN BETWEEN. THUS...HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ALREADY
ADVERTISED DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION.
MAX/MIN TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY MIN TEMPS...BUT IF THE ECMWF ENDS UP BEING
MORE ACCURATE WITH +22C 850MB TEMPS OPPOSED TO THE GFS +17C TEMPS
DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME...WE COULD START TO SEE MORE 90S
CREEPING INTO THE CWA...ALONG WITH HEAT INDICES CREEPING CLOSE TO
100 IN SOME AREAS WHERE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70./TEMPS STAY ABOVE
NORMAL AT NIGHT DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS STAY CLOSER TO WHAT WE EXPECT FOR
LATE JUNE...WITH UPPER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 80S REST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND MID 80S/NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT TUESDAY...
WEAK WEDGE AND RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPSLOPE ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EXTENSIVE/WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...FOCUS LATER IN THE DAY WILL BE ON UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
AND FRONT TO COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TO BRING SCT-NMRS
SHRA/TSRA BACK TO THE CWA. THINKING FOR TODAY IS THAT MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE BETTER
DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE
AIR MASS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. NET RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING...IMPROVING TO LOW END VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AFT 18Z AND AFFECT PRINCIPALLY BLF/LWB THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THEN CREEP CLOSER TO BCB/ROA AFT 00Z. MOSTLY VCTS AT
THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE PROB30 FOR BLF/LWB
AFT 18Z. WITH THE LOW CLOUDS...FOG IS NOT AN ISSUE THIS MORNING.
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE/FRONT...SO THE
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR OVERNIGHT SHRA AND ISOLD
TSRA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. IN FACT...SOME ACTIVITY
MAY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS IN -SHRA/-TSRA
BR...ESPECIALLY AFT 06Z.
WINDS...SSE-SSW THROUGH THE PERIOD...5-10KTS...WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LOW END GUSTS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRA POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION
DISCUSSION...
NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TIMING REMAINS A BIT IN QUESTION AS POTENTIAL
EARLIER ARRIVAL COULD MEAN MORE COVERAGE IN THE EAST INCLUDING
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN STRONGER STORMS...WHILE BETTER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION IF THE
FRONT SLOWS.
MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT
OVERHEAD OR PUSHES TO THE SE...BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH
HEATING FOR ADDED DIURNAL CONVECTION AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.
MOISTURE LIKELY RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH A REPEAT OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION FRIDAY LEADING TO BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR. THIS TREND LOOKS TO PERSIST AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH AT
LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION MAKING FOR OCNL MVFR/IFR IN SPOTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTRW AREAS OF IFR FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN THE PREVIOUS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WERT
NEAR TERM...WERT/RAB
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/WP
AVIATION...JH/RAB/WERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEK
FOLLOWED BY HOTTER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME MOISTURE
INCREASE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY A FEW THIN CIRRUS
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS SE AZ. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z
RANGED FROM THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S F NORTH TO WEST OF TUCSON...TO
THE LOWER 50S F ACROSS FAR SERN SECTIONS. THESE TEMPS WERE NEARLY
UNCHANGED ACROSS NRN SECTIONS VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO...BUT WERE ABOUT
10-20 DEGS F HIGHER FROM TUCSON SOUTHWARD VERSUS THIS TIME MON.
SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO 24 HOURS AGO.
24/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS NEAR 0.30 INCH...A
MUCH DRIER PROFILE VERSUS THIS TIME MON. 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGE PLOT
YIELDED MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE SURFACE-600 MB LAYER...AND ABOUT 2-5
DEGS C OF WARMING ABOVE 600 MB. 24/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATED
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 28N/129W...
AND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED SEWD INTO SRN CHIHUAHUA. LIGHT TO MODERATE
WLY/NWLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED OVER SE AZ.
AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING ACROSS
FAR SERN SECTIONS LATER TODAY...GIVEN THE ONGOING ENHANCED DEWPOINTS
AS NOTED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED DIAGNOSTICS. 24/12Z NAM/GFS AND
24/13Z RUC HRRR DEPICT PRECIP ECHOES AND QPF/S TO BE EAST TO SOUTH
OF THIS FORECAST AREA. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...WITH SOME CIRRIFORM CLOUDS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS ENOUGH LOWER AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
SOME CUMULOFORM CLOUDS TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SE OF TUCSON.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY INTO WED AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THUS...WED SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY...WITH SOME CIRRIFORM CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...AND
SOME CUMULOFORM CLOUDS WED AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THUR. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE
NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES FRI. THE MAIN IMPACT ON SE AZ FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SOME BREEZINESS THUR-FRI MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A VERY DRY REGIME WILL THEN CONTINUE SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY-SAT WILL BE AT NORMAL VALUES OR AVERAGE JUST A FEW
DEGS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THERE ARE NO CHANGES FORTHCOMING TO THE INHERITED OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOR TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER
DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/18Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL PROVIDE WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS ENOUGH
LOWER AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SE OF KTUS...AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
KDUG TERMINAL...TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 10-15K FT AGL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WILL BE SW-NW AT 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS MOSTLY EAST OF TUCSON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
FEW LOCALES EAST OF TUCSON AND PARTICULARLY IN THE SAFFORD VALLEY
MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
WILL OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DECENT HIGH INITIALLY CONSOLIDATING OVERHEAD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE LARGER SCALE FLOW AT THAT POINT WILL STILL
NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR DIRECTLY ASSISTING THE PROCESS OF IMPORTING
DEEP MOISTURE...BUT THE MUCH LIGHTER AND MORE AMBIGUOUS FLOW UNDER
THE HIGH WILL TEND TO ALLOW GREATER INFLUENCE FROM OUTFLOW ACTIVITY
IMMEDIATELY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE NUMBER OF SCENARIOS
ALLOWING FOR DEEP SURGE ACTIVITY INCREASE AT THAT POINT AND
ULTIMATELY WE SHOULD SEE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS AS MONSOON INFLUENCES
SPREAD INTO OUR PART OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK (ESPECIALLY AFTER MONDAY
OR TUESDAY). YOU PLAY THE PERCENTAGES IN THE EXTENDED AND WE`RE
STARTING TO SEE THE SCENARIOS THAT ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
PICTURE INCREASING...INCLUDING A MARKED INCREASE IN TROPICAL
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF BAJA AND PRESSURE DIFFERENTIALS ENHANCED BY
THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS. FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1124 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY...BUT
WITH A LOT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ALSO PRESENT. WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A WEAK
DENVER CYCLONE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC
DIAGNOSTICS FROM THE RAP MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON
BY HOLDING THE CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. BY EVENING THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL DIMINISH WHICH MAY ALLOW SHOWERS TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ARE GOING TO BE CAPABLE OF
SEVERE HAIL DUE TO THE 1000-1500 JOULES OF CAPE THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE PRESENT. STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL HAS NORTHEAST
COLORADO UNDER SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...SO THE FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
INTERESTING BUT CHALLENGING SITUATION FOR THE PERIOD REGARDING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FIRST...MANY OF THE IMPORTANT PARAMETERS ARE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AS DOES
THE INSTABILITY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE UP FROM 24 HOURS
AGO ACCORDING TO GPS SENSORS. WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE IS PREDICTED
TO CONTINUE. THIS IS ALL WELL AND GOOD AND WOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY BY THEMSELVES. HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS GONE
ON ALMOST THE ENTIRE NIGHT ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WHICH WILL KEEP
THINGS COOL OUT THERE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME
STRATUS FLOATING ABOUT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS COULD KEEP HEATING SOMEWHAT AT BAY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING. INDEED MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNT OF CIN STILL RUNNING AROUND DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
IN AND IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY A BIT THE MODELS ARE ALL PRETTY
CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME MODERATE BUT RATHER DEEP QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
SUBSIDENCE SPREADING OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE PEAK HEATING
TIME. SOME WEAKENING OF THIS DOWNWARD MOTION AND A SIGN CHANGE TO
WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS PREDICTED AFTER 00Z BY SOME OF THE
MODELS. SUBSIDENCE LIKE THIS HAS BEEN KNOWN TO COMPLETELY SHUT
DOWN CONVECTION IN PAST CASES. BUT WITH THE POSSIBLE SIGN CHANGE
EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY THINGS MAY SIMPLY BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT AND
LINGER LONGER INTO THE EVENING.
SO THINGS ARE NOT TERRIBLY CUT AND DRIED. ONE THING IS RATHER
CERTAIN...IF CONVECTION CAN GET GOING THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WITH JUST ABOUT ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS. HEAVY RAINS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT CAN GET GOING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
ON WEDNESDAY...THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS WILL START TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
URBAN CORRIDOR. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE STATE WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW MOVING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. AREAS IN AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
STILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS BUT THEY WILL BE HIGH BASED
AND PRODUCE PRIMARILY GUSTY WINDS. FURTHER EAST... DRY LINE WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AND THE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND SHIFTS THE MOISTURE AXIS EAST OF INTERSTATE 25. EAST
OF THE LINE...HIGH PW VALUES WILL STILL EXIST WITH CAPE VALUES
OVER 2000 J/KG. A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CWFA. BEST CHC OF STORMS WL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WITH
LITTLE IF ANY TSTM ACTIVITY IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. ON SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRUSH ACROSS
COLORADO BRING WITH IT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY AND WARMER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO MOVE BACK INTO
THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 90.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
WILL HAVE VCTS AFTER 22Z AND THEN TEMPO -TSRA AFTER ABOUT 01Z.
AFTER THE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT...THE NAM HAS WINDS
REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTH...INDICATIVE OF AT LEAST MODEST
DRAINAGE WINDS. WITHOUT ANY SURGE OF NORTHERLIES...DO NOT THINK WE
WILL SEE ANY LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING AN INCH AT BOULDER AT
4 AM ANY CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO GET ROLLING TODAY WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. PARTS OF MORGAN AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES HAD QUITE A BIT OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT SO SOILS
THERE MAY BE GETTING CLOSE TO SATURATION WITH FURTHER RAINS HAVING
THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. MODEST STORM MOTION FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS AT THIS POINT ALTHOUGH A LOW THREAT DOES EXIST.
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL PRODUCE JUST SOME
HIGH BASED SHOWER AND/OR TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE FOOTHILLS. NO
FLOODING CONCERNS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DANKERS
SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...COOPER
AVIATION...DANKERS
HYDROLOGY...ET/COOPER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
556 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG IT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FRIDAY AND REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL ARRIVE NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AS WELL AS RUC AND COSPA RUNS (18Z
GFS AND WRF TOO), WE HAVE SCALED BACK POPS AS WE HAVE REMAINED
RELATIVELY MORE STABLE OVER OUR CWA AND ONGOING DEEP FLOW
TRAJECTORY OF ONGOING CONVECTION WOULD BE BY-PASSING MOST OF OUR
CWA THIS EVENING. WE`LL SEE WHERE THE TRENDS GO FROM THERE FOR THE
NEXT UPDATE. OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO SMOOTH CURRENT TEMP
DIFFERENCES AND LOWER SKY NEAR TERM SKY COVER.
FOR TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE WHILE A SFC
TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH FROM THE NW.
THE RESULTING PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT SLY FLOW OVER THE
AREA. THIS PLUS SW FLOW ABOVE THE SFC WILL BRING INCREASING MOIST
AIR IN TO THE REGION. CLOUDINESS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT
INCLUDING SOME LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG AS WELL. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS NO CLEAR-CUT FORCING FOR UVV...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A CHC OR
SLGT CHC POP FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS N/W OF
PHL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE SFC TROF AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SEWD INTO PA ON WED
AND A SHRTWV TROF ALOFT WILL ALSO APPROACH FROM THE W AND SW. THE
SHRTWV WILL ENHANCE UVV...ALTHO THE BEST FORCING SEEMS TO BE TO OUR
N AND NW. EVEN SO THERE WILL BE A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH
PWS FCST TO BE OVER 2 INCHES. IN SPITE OF INCREASING CLOUDS...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEATING TO PRODUCE INSTBY FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY WITH POPS INCREASING WEST TO EAST. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND SOME
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS WILL BE MOVING SW TO
NE AND IF TRAINING OCCURS THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
HOWEVER ATTM WE BELIEVE THE FLOODING THREAT IS NOT WIDESPREAD OR
ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A FF WATCH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE SITN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK MEAN H5 TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE TROUGH GETS KICKED TO THE EAST SATURDAY ALLOWING H5 RIDGING TO
TAKE PLACE ACROSS OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGING PERSISTS
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SIGNS BEYOND THE LONG
TERM THAT THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES ALOFT TO
COME CLOSE TO OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FROM THU INTO SAT...THEN READINGS
WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S MON AND APPROACH 90 (OR EXCEED IN THE METRO
AREAS) NEXT TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHC WILL BE TIED TO TRANSIENT SHORT WAVES AND WEAK
FRONTS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS POOR
AT BEST BY THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...SO THE WPC POPS WERE USED IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE BEST CHC FOR PCPN ARE SAT/SUN ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WRN AREAS AND AGAIN NEXT TUE...MOSTLY WRN AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDS ARE IN PLACE AT ALL OUR TAF SITES AND SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. SMWHT GUST SLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN SLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KT
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE SLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...AND
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
SOME IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE.
CONDS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURG WED MORNING AND RETURN TO VFR BY
MIDDAY. SLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDDAY. SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP DURG THE AFTN AND THESE WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY MVFR OR IFR CONDS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND LOW CIGS.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
THU THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR WITH ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
FAIRLY QUIET CONDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NJ/DE COASTAL
WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...OR AT LEAST NO
SCA FLAGS ARE EXPECTED ATTM. SLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING
SOME TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW
BUT CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS WED AFTN AND
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL
TEND TO HAVE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL AS THE USUAL LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS CAN
BE EXPECTED AT TIMES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT REMAINS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCAL FLOODING AS THE PW
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES.
AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES, THE FLOW IS GENERALLY PARALLEL TO IT WHICH
INTRODUCES THE RISK FOR TRAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE RATHER EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS, AND ANY TRAINING OR MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL ENHANCE
THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT. THE ARRIVAL OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
FRONT MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ALLOW FOR MORE
FOCUSED DOWNPOURS. THIS LOOKS TO INITIALLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY, THEN IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING
THE EVENING. THE 1-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWS NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH VALUES AT OR LESS THAN 2.00
INCHES. THESE SIMILAR AREAS ON THE 3-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAVE
VALUES BETWEEN ABOUT 2.00 AND 2.50 INCHES. IT IS THESE LOCATIONS AND
THE MORE URBANIZED SPOTS THAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT BEING ISSUED ATTM DUE TO SOME QUESTION ON
HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS /AREAL COVERAGE/ AND WHERE IF BECOMES FOCUSED
THE LONGEST. A MENTION HOWEVER REMAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NEW JERSEY THE REST
OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...AMC/O`HARA
MARINE...AMC/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
239 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2014
...Update to short term...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
Main focus is on this afternoon and tonight. Problematic forecast because
the short term convective allowing mesoscale models aren`t handling
the current situation that well. The most recent RAP is starting to
get a clue and looks reasonable. Convection is firing off an old outflow
boundary and a minor upper level pressure perturbation. Convection is
building southward with southerly winds feeding into it, so think storms
will continue to increase in coverage with this associated warm air
advection and eventually forward propagate. Large Hail Parameter (LHP)
is lower now with a value of 4. Think this is due to fairly less steep
mid level lapse rates and more marginal upper level wind shear. Anyhoo,
moderate instability and lower end shear will still support the notion
of severe weather across the forecast area. The most significant threat
is heavy rainfall with pwats up 116% above normal per blended satellite
derived products. Ramped up pops and qpf, although my pops could be
raised even higher, but did not want to be too out of coordination with
neighbors. Will monitor and tweak pops and wx as needed in the ESTF
period. Lows tonight will be in the 60s. Highs in the 80sF tomorrow
with more MCS activity likely.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
For Wednesday night, a lee trough will be nearly stationary with
moist upslope flow. The upper level winds are very weak, but with
good instability some thunderstorms will be likely mainly north of
and east of Dodge City. Have upped thunderstorms chances to around
60 percent in the I-70 area and 30 to 40 percent elsewhere. The
chances for widespread severe weather looks only marginal at this
time with weak upper level support. Overnight lows will be mild and
in the mid to upper 60s.
For Thursday, a lee trough continues with moist upslope flow and
again the upper winds look weak to support any severe weather. Some
thunderstorms will be lingering across mainly parts of south central
Kansas. Highs will range from the low to mid 90s west towards the
Colorado border, to the upper 80s east across parts of south central
Kansas.
For the period of Friday into next Tuesday, a strong upper level
shortwave trough will be moving east into the Intermountain
West and Colorado Rockies on Friday afternoon. This system then
lifts northeast into the Northern Plains for the Weekend. The best
chances for thunderstorms looks to be along the I-70 corridor on
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The main storm track then looks
to remain north of Kansas into Tuesday. Overnight lows will be mild
in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with highs warming from around 90 on
Friday to the mid 90s on Sunday and Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
VFR through much of the pd. Main exception in local areas of +tsra,
mainly for KGCK this evening. -tsra will be possible too at KDDC/KHYS.
Southerly winds today becoming light and variable.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 87 67 89 / 70 30 40 20
GCK 64 89 67 90 / 70 20 40 20
EHA 61 89 66 93 / 50 20 30 10
LBL 63 89 68 92 / 70 20 30 20
HYS 64 87 67 88 / 70 30 60 30
P28 67 87 68 89 / 70 40 50 40
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
232 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2014
...Updated for Long Term...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
At the time of this writing (just after 0830 UTC), a small mesoscale
convective system (MCS) was slowly dissolving as it moved
east-southeast across southwestern Kansas. There were other weakly
organized storms across northwestern Kansas. There appeared to be a
slow warming in infrared cold cloud tops associated with the western
Kansas convection as we head toward the early morning hours. Water
vapor and RAP analysis suggested a weak shortwave trough from
southern Wyoming down into central Colorado. This feature will allow
the redevelopment of the southeastern Colorado leeside low with
south-southeast winds resuming by mid to late morning across
portions of southwestern Kansas. Winds in the wake of this morning`s
MCS will be light and one or two convergence zones will likely set
up at the surface where south to southeast winds of 12 to 15 knots
will converge into areas of weak or nearly calm winds over portions
of west central and/or northwestern Kansas. These convergence areas
at the surface will foster development of surface-based
thunderstorms in the 20-22Z time frame just about anywhere across
far east-central/southeast Colorado and/or western Kansas. The NAM12
shows a band of enhanced mid level flow from the west-northwest
across eastern Colorado and western Kansas of 28 to 34 knots
(500mb)...providing ample enough deep layer shear for supercell
structures with the strongest discrete convection. Any supercell
storms which develop would move almost due south given the mid level
flow direction out of the west-northwest. It is unclear how long
discrete thunderstorm phase will last, but back on Sunday there was
a supercell storm that rolled south for 4+ hours (eastern Oklahoma
Panhandle into the northeastern Texas Panhandle) before becoming
absorbed by other convection and transitioning to an MCS. The
CAPE/Shear profile does not look all that dissimilar from the
Sunday event. Should a supercell storm form and thrive in this
environment, maximum hail size of tennis balls will be possible
(local research /Large Hail Parameter/ in the upper single digits
also supports this maximum hail size). The thinking is that any
such hail event of that size would be very isolated and probably
brief with many of the hail reports being half dollar to 2-inch in
diameter. We increased POPs to 60 percent and included "Heavy
Rain" in the grids given the continued very moist environment and
impressive QPF signals from the WRF high- resolution models...as
well as the ECMWF. POPs may need to be increased further (to
categorical/80+) later on today as mesoscale details emerge.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
For Wednesday night, a lee trough will be nearly stationary with
moist upslope flow. The upper level winds are very weak, but with
good instability some thunderstorms will be likely mainly north of
and east of Dodge City. Have upped thunderstorms chances to around
60 percent in the I-70 area and 30 to 40 percent elsewhere. The
chances for widespread severe weather looks only marginal at this
time with weak upper level support. Overnight lows will be mild and
in the mid to upper 60s.
For Thursday, a lee trough continues with moist upslope flow and
again the upper winds look weak to support any severe weather. Some
thunderstorms will be lingering across mainly parts of south central
Kansas. Highs will range from the low to mid 90s west towards the
Colorado border, to the upper 80s east across parts of south central
Kansas.
For the period of Friday into next Tuesday, a strong upper level
shortwave trough will be moving east into the Intermountain
West and Colorado Rockies on Friday afternoon. This system then
lifts northeast into the Northern Plains for the Weekend. The best
chances for thunderstorms looks to be along the I-70 corridor on
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The main storm track then looks
to remain north of Kansas into Tuesday. Overnight lows will be mild
in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with highs warming from around 90 on
Friday to the mid 90s on Sunday and Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
VFR through much of the pd. Main exception in local areas of +tsra,
mainly for KGCK this evening. -tsra will be possible too at KDDC/KHYS.
Southerly winds today becoming light and variable.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 87 67 89 / 70 30 40 20
GCK 64 89 67 90 / 70 20 40 20
EHA 61 89 66 93 / 50 20 30 10
LBL 63 89 68 92 / 70 20 30 20
HYS 64 87 67 88 / 70 30 60 30
P28 67 87 68 89 / 70 40 50 40
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
117 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2014
...Update for mesoscale discussion...
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
Monitoring near term radar trends. Convection is developing along an
old outflow boundary. Dual-pol precip estimates as much as 2-4" has
fallen outside the CWA across Gove county. Blended satellite pwats are
around 116% of normal. The overall environment is conducive to very
heavy rainfall if a storm tracks over you. Short term LHP values not
so high due to weak upper level shear and marginal mid level lapse rates.
Tweaking pops and wx based off short term grids. Model`s aren`t handling
today very well, but have ramped up pops area wide to account for this
uncertainty.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 911 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A minor upper level wave was moving across Colorado at 12Z. This feature
was the partial impetus for scattered convection across the Colorado
Plains and western Kansas this morning. The KDDC pwat was 1.07" this
morning, or between the 50th/75th percentile. KDDC WSR-88D was indicating
returned power this morning and also in regional radar mosaic.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
At the time of this writing (just after 0830 UTC), a small mesoscale
convective system (MCS) was slowly dissolving as it moved
east-southeast across southwestern Kansas. There were other weakly
organized storms across northwestern Kansas. There appeared to be a
slow warming in infrared cold cloud tops associated with the western
Kansas convection as we head toward the early morning hours. Water
vapor and RAP analysis suggested a weak shortwave trough from
southern Wyoming down into central Colorado. This feature will allow
the redevelopment of the southeastern Colorado leeside low with
south-southeast winds resuming by mid to late morning across
portions of southwestern Kansas. Winds in the wake of this morning`s
MCS will be light and one or two convergence zones will likely set
up at the surface where south to southeast winds of 12 to 15 knots
will converge into areas of weak or nearly calm winds over portions
of west central and/or northwestern Kansas. These convergence areas
at the surface will foster development of surface-based
thunderstorms in the 20-22Z time frame just about anywhere across
far east-central/southeast Colorado and/or western Kansas. The NAM12
shows a band of enhanced mid level flow from the west-northwest
across eastern Colorado and western Kansas of 28 to 34 knots
(500mb)...providing ample enough deep layer shear for supercell
structures with the strongest discrete convection. Any supercell
storms which develop would move almost due south given the mid level
flow direction out of the west-northwest. It is unclear how long
discrete thunderstorm phase will last, but back on Sunday there was
a supercell storm that rolled south for 4+ hours (eastern Oklahoma
Panhandle into the northeastern Texas Panhandle) before becoming
absorbed by other convection and transitioning to an MCS. The
CAPE/Shear profile does not look all that dissimilar from the
Sunday event. Should a supercell storm form and thrive in this
environment, maximum hail size of tennis balls will be possible
(local research /Large Hail Parameter/ in the upper single digits
also supports this maximum hail size). The thinking is that any
such hail event of that size would be very isolated and probably
brief with many of the hail reports being half dollar to 2-inch in
diameter. We increased POPs to 60 percent and included "Heavy
Rain" in the grids given the continued very moist environment and
impressive QPF signals from the WRF high- resolution models...as
well as the ECMWF. POPs may need to be increased further (to
categorical/80+) later on today as mesoscale details emerge.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A weak upper level ridge is progged to move through the Rockies
Wednesday, then through the Plains Thursday before exiting stage
right on Friday. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is
expected to move into the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West
Wednesday and Thursday then into the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains Friday into this weekend. A trough of low pressure at the
surface will intensify across eastern Colorado as this feature
approaches bringing southerly winds to western Kansas through the
weekend. An exiting MCS may bring scattered thunderstorms to south
central Kansas Wednesday morning but should exit the area by noon. A
slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night, otherwise expect mostly cloudy
skies. Clouds decrease in coverage Thursday with partly cloudy skies
expected through Saturday. A chance of thunderstorms will then be
possible across northern Kansas and the I-70 corridor Saturday night
as lift increases due to an upper level shortwave moving through
across Nebraska. Otherwise expect a slight increase in cloud cover.
Upper level ridging looks to build into the southern Rockies by the
beginning of next week. This should suppress any significant weather
across western Kansas with partly cloudy skies. Highs throughout the
extended period start out in the upper 80s Wednesday with lower 90s
expected Thursday through the weekend. Highs in the mid to upper 90s
are possible early next week. Lows start out in the upper 60s
Thursday morning with lower 70s anticipated through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
VFR through much of the pd. Main exception in local areas of +tsra,
mainly for KGCK this evening. -tsra will be possible too at KDDC/KHYS.
Southerly winds today becoming light and variable.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 87 67 88 / 70 30 40 20
GCK 64 89 67 89 / 70 20 40 20
EHA 61 89 66 92 / 50 20 30 10
LBL 63 89 68 90 / 70 20 30 20
HYS 64 87 67 88 / 70 30 60 30
P28 67 87 69 88 / 70 40 50 40
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Sugden
SYNOPSIS...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1236 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2014
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
Quiet weather was in place across the local forecast area early this
morning with light winds, high clouds, and departing surface high
pressure. Farther to the west in western KS and eastern CO, a
loosely organized convective system was making slow eastward
progression. This convection seemed tied to a weak upper disturbance
that was making a very slow eastward progression out of CO and NM
through weak flow aloft. Additional weak, but seemingly more
well-defined upper waves were located over southern California and
eastern Montana. While the CA wave will be slow to move east, it
seems that the Montana system may dive southeast and possibly
interact with the system in eastern Colorado by tonight.
In terms of the local forecast and sensible weather through tonight,
expect the area of showers and thunderstorms to continue with slow
but steady eastward development. Generally speaking, the NMM, ARW,
and HRRR seem to be handling the situation well through the day,
which coincides fairly well with larger scale model guidance as
well. This suggests that showers and a few storms may encroach upon
the Highway 81 corridor by early afternoon and possibly build into
far eastern KS by early evening. All indications suggest a tight
instability gradient from east to west which also gradually
progresses to the east with time. This should prevent the convection
from developing more quickly east today even if a few cold pools
push out from convection. As the instability does arrive, it will be
rather meager, as will wind shear profiles, and even strong storms
seem quite unlikely through tonight. All told, much of the area
stands a good chance to see at least some precip by sunrise on
Wednesday, although amounts may be spotty.
Aside from precip, temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s
today, with some question in just how warm it will get depending
largely on cloud cover as more widespread clouds could hold everyone
in the lower 80s. Winds will be light through tonight and dewpoints
will remain fairly comfortable...in the low to middle 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A slow upper shortwave trough translates southeast over the CO
Rockies and central plains on Wednesday afternoon. Position and
timing from guidance was fairly similar in developing a swath of
showers and thunderstorms across the CWA from the overnight into
the afternoon hours. Ample southerly moisture transport is aided by
PWAT values in excess of 1.6 inches through the period. Have
increased chances across the area during the day, gradually
tapering off west to east by Wednesday evening. Do not expect
severe storms with main threat being heavy rain and flash
flooding.
Occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected from Thursday
onward as weaker upper perturbations within the mean flow give
much uncertainty where mesoscale boundaries or areas of lift are
positioned for scattered convection to form. Similar to previous
trends, late afternoon into early evening time frame during peak
heating and minimal inhibition is likely.
The weekend forecast, for the most part, appears dry Friday and
Saturday with temporary ridging over the area. On Saturday, H5 flow
begins to back and increase toward the southwest in response to a
deepening upper trof across the western CONUS. By the late afternoon
period, a moist and unstable airmass in place may trigger scattered
thunderstorms along/ahead of a cold front stretched over central KS
into south central NE. A few storms may be severe in proximity to
the convergent boundary where surface based CAPE in excess of 3000
J/KG complements effective shear near 40 kts. Activity weakens as it
progresses eastward by Sunday with some indication of redevelopment
by late afternoon across east central areas. Otherwise trends from
the GFS/ECMWF depict weak trofs rotating through the main wave as
the frontal boundary becomes a focal point for additional scattered
convection Sunday evening into Monday.
Minor adjustments were made to temperatures in the extended.
Insulation from cloud cover and rainfall Wednesday should hold highs
to the low 80s throughout the afternoon. Sunshine returns Thursday
as consensus guidance warrants increased highs in the mid and upper 80s.
With ample sunshine and increased boundary layer mixing through the
weekend, warming trend continues with highs in the upper 80s to low
90s by Monday. Overnight lows follow suit from the mid 60s Thursday
to the low 70s Friday into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
Thunderstorm chances increasing over the next few hours with upper
wave approaching. May see a break for much of the 03-09Z window
but expect increasing trends again thereafter. Have kept VCTS
going but will watch trends for anything more persistent.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...65
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2014
...Update to aviation...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 911 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A minor upper level wave was moving across Colorado at 12Z. This feature
was the partial impetus for scattered convection across the Colorado
Plains and western Kansas this morning. The KDDC pwat was 1.07" this
morning, or between the 50th/75th percentile. KDDC WSR-88D was indicating
returned power this morning and also in regional radar mosaic.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
At the time of this writing (just after 0830 UTC), a small mesoscale
convective system (MCS) was slowly dissolving as it moved
east-southeast across southwestern Kansas. There were other weakly
organized storms across northwestern Kansas. There appeared to be a
slow warming in infrared cold cloud tops associated with the western
Kansas convection as we head toward the early morning hours. Water
vapor and RAP analysis suggested a weak shortwave trough from
southern Wyoming down into central Colorado. This feature will allow
the redevelopment of the southeastern Colorado leeside low with
south-southeast winds resuming by mid to late morning across
portions of southwestern Kansas. Winds in the wake of this morning`s
MCS will be light and one or two convergence zones will likely set
up at the surface where south to southeast winds of 12 to 15 knots
will converge into areas of weak or nearly calm winds over portions
of west central and/or northwestern Kansas. These convergence areas
at the surface will foster development of surface-based
thunderstorms in the 20-22Z time frame just about anywhere across
far east-central/southeast Colorado and/or western Kansas. The NAM12
shows a band of enhanced mid level flow from the west-northwest
across eastern Colorado and western Kansas of 28 to 34 knots
(500mb)...providing ample enough deep layer shear for supercell
structures with the strongest discrete convection. Any supercell
storms which develop would move almost due south given the mid level
flow direction out of the west-northwest. It is unclear how long
discrete thunderstorm phase will last, but back on Sunday there was
a supercell storm that rolled south for 4+ hours (eastern Oklahoma
Panhandle into the northeastern Texas Panhandle) before becoming
absorbed by other convection and transitioning to an MCS. The
CAPE/Shear profile does not look all that dissimilar from the
Sunday event. Should a supercell storm form and thrive in this
environment, maximum hail size of tennis balls will be possible
(local research /Large Hail Parameter/ in the upper single digits
also supports this maximum hail size). The thinking is that any
such hail event of that size would be very isolated and probably
brief with many of the hail reports being half dollar to 2-inch in
diameter. We increased POPs to 60 percent and included "Heavy
Rain" in the grids given the continued very moist environment and
impressive QPF signals from the WRF high- resolution models...as
well as the ECMWF. POPs may need to be increased further (to
categorical/80+) later on today as mesoscale details emerge.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
A weak upper level ridge is progged to move through the Rockies
Wednesday, then through the Plains Thursday before exiting stage
right on Friday. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough is
expected to move into the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West
Wednesday and Thursday then into the Northern Rockies and Northern
Plains Friday into this weekend. A trough of low pressure at the
surface will intensify across eastern Colorado as this feature
approaches bringing southerly winds to western Kansas through the
weekend. An exiting MCS may bring scattered thunderstorms to south
central Kansas Wednesday morning but should exit the area by noon. A
slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night, otherwise expect mostly cloudy
skies. Clouds decrease in coverage Thursday with partly cloudy skies
expected through Saturday. A chance of thunderstorms will then be
possible across northern Kansas and the I-70 corridor Saturday night
as lift increases due to an upper level shortwave moving through
across Nebraska. Otherwise expect a slight increase in cloud cover.
Upper level ridging looks to build into the southern Rockies by the
beginning of next week. This should suppress any significant weather
across western Kansas with partly cloudy skies. Highs throughout the
extended period start out in the upper 80s Wednesday with lower 90s
expected Thursday through the weekend. Highs in the mid to upper 90s
are possible early next week. Lows start out in the upper 60s
Thursday morning with lower 70s anticipated through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
VFR through much of the pd. Main exception in local areas of +tsra,
mainly for KGCK this evening. -tsra will be possible too at KDDC/KHYS.
Southerly winds today becoming light and variable.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 65 87 67 / 60 60 20 30
GCK 85 64 87 67 / 60 60 20 30
EHA 84 64 90 66 / 60 50 20 30
LBL 87 64 90 68 / 60 60 20 30
HYS 80 64 85 67 / 40 40 20 30
P28 86 68 87 69 / 40 60 30 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Sugden
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
411 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST TODAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND
SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON ARE CONFIRMING THAT THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND MID LEVEL WARMING IS KEEPING ANY
CONVECTION FROM FORMING OR MOVING INTO THE REGION AT THIS TIME.
THE MODELS SHOWED THAT THIS MID LEVEL WARMING WOULD CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH ABOUT 3Z...THUS LIMITING AND OPPORTUNITY FOR
POP UP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SO EXPECT TO
SEE A DRY EVENING.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
DEW POINTS ARE REFLECTING THAT AS THEY HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. THIS COULD LEAD
SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT TOWARDS MORNING AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SO HAVE SLOWLY RAMPED UP
TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE VA/NC BORDER AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD 12Z.
NOT CONFIDENT TO GO HIGHER WITH THE POPS AT THIS STAGE...BUT ANY
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR.
FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN
TONIGHT WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...HAVE KEPT THE LOWS UP TOWARD THE
MAV NUMBERS...ALLOWING FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE CLEAR
SKY EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE LATER WHICH COULD PUMP
READINGS UP TOWARD MORNING. THE MET NUMBERS LOOK A LITTLE TOO HIGH
GIVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME COOLING EARLY IN THE NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS AGREE ON THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND THE NORTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY...BUT ARE STRUGGLING SOME TO DEPICT THE FEATURES AND
LIFT PATTERNS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH OVER VA AND NC. SO THIS HAS LED
TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POPS FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
WITH THE TROUGH LIFTING TO THE NORTH...THE BEST FORCING IS ALSO
LIFTING NORTH AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NRN VA/WRN MD INTO PA WED
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH VA/NC DURING
THIS TIME...BUT THE BOUNDARY IS WEAK AND THE LIFT IS NOT FOCUS SO
HAVE HELD MOST POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DID KEEP A LITTLE AREA OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH...CLOSER TO THE FORCING. THE OTHER FEATURE TO WATCH IS THE
MODELS SHOWING SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE SERN US COAST THAT
GETS PULLED NORTHWARD ON WED. THIS COULD KICK OFF SHOWERS ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS FROM ERN NC THROUGH THE DELMARVA. BUT AGAIN THE
FORCING IS NOT STRONG AND THE TIMING IS EARLY IN THE DAY. SO FOR
NOW HAVE JUST GONE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THAT WAVE.
THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY SO HAVE THE
SFC FRONT OFF THE COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXITING BY THURS AFTERNOON. SO HAVE SPED THE CLEARING OF THE POPS
THUR AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD BE DRY EVERYWHERE BASE ON HOW QUICK
THE DRY AIR ARRIVES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT.
BY THURS EVENING INTO FRIDAY...WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVE AND
SLOWLY SLIDE OFF THE COAST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL TURN THE
SFC FLOW FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BACK TO THE SE BY FRI
AFTERNOON. WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS...COULD
SEE SOME POP UP CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT SO HAVE KEPT SLGT CHC
POPS IN THE SOUTH BUT DID DRY OUT AREAS FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED NEAR THE MOS NUMBERS FOR
THE PERIOD...LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER MAV NUMBERS ON WED WITH
SOME MORNING SUNSHINE...AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS AND
HIGHER MOISTURE THAT WILL TAKE TIME TO ERODE AFTER THE BOUNDARY
CROSSES. FROM THURS TO FRIDAY...HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD A STRAIGHT
BLEND...KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AGREE WITH WPC THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH OVERALL
PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD. THIS LOOKS TO BE A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN FOR THE AREA. A RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ALOFT ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND LOWS
NEAR 70.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WATCHING A FEW -SHRA MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND THAT
COULD IMPACT KECG MID/LATE AFTN. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN TAF ATTM. OTW...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SE WINDS
EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT SE FLOW IN PLACE THERE IS SOME CONCERN
FOR LOW STRATUS OR FOG EARLY WED MORNING OVER SE TERMINALS. WILL
INCLUDE SOME MVFR VSBY (4SM) AT KECG FOR NOW...AND MONITOR TRENDS
AT KORF/PHF.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING LAYERED MOISTURE OVERHEAD
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
MAINLY AFTN AND EVENING TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF
MVFR/PATCHY IFR FOG OR STRATUS WILL BE PSBL EACH MORNING NEAR
SUNRISE.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ALL DEPICT A SOUTHERLY SURGE UP THE BAY. THIS
DOES HAPPEN SOMETIMES WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. LOOKING AT THE MODEL WINDS ONLY THE RUC SHOWS
WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW THE LOCAL
WRF AND KEEP WINDS AROUND 15KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 18 KTS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE. ALL MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A FAIRLY WEAK FRONT.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND AND GRADUALLY SHIFT THE WINDS
TO THE SOUTHWEST BY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL STAY UNDER SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS
NEAR TERM...ESS
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JDM/LKB
MARINE...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
242 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THURSDAY...THEN SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES
BRINGS AN UNSTABLE PERIOD THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CWA. 12Z
KIAD RAOB INDICATED AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE /PW 1.35 INCHES/ AND
EXPECT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
RADAR SHOWS THAT A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO POP UP ALONG
THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA...BUT RELATIVE LACK OF A TRIGGER
AND CAPPING WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SUCH DEVELOPMENT MUCH FURTHER EAST
PARTICULARLY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS THINKING IS IN
LINE WITH LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW...AND POPS/WX THIS
EVENING REFLECT THIS. THOSE STORMS THAT AFFECT THE WESTERN CWA
HOWEVER COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF MULTIPLE STORMS
MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA.
LARGER SCALE LIFT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BE
BETTER...WITH GFS FORECASTING OVER 2" PW VALUES AND THE NAM NOT
TOO FAR AWAY FROM THAT. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN...AND WET MICROBURSTS MAY POSE AN
ISOLATED SEVERE RISK DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ASSUMING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE DAY...LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE CWA. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS COMMENCE THEREAFTER
AS NORTHWEST WINDS BRING LOWER PW/DEWPOINT AIR THROUGH THE CWA.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CLOUDS AS THE UPPER TROUGH LAGS AND SOME
COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVERTOP WARM AIR AT THE SURFACE /GIVEN
DOWNSLOPING FLOW/.
MUCH OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS ON
FRIDAY. IT WILL BE RATHER WARM...BUT HUMIDITY SHOULD STILL BE LOW.
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS WHERE THE OLD BOUNDARY MAY
SNAKE ITS WAY BACK TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. THIS MAY RESULT IN
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL USHER ONSHORE
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS FLOW IS LIGHT HOWEVER, SO DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD MIX
OUT ANY NIGHTTIME INVERSION RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...AGREEMENT ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH SUNDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IS MUCH
LOWER BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE GFS HAS IT STALLED OVER NEW ENGLAND
WITH LOW PRESSURE STALLED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US...WHEREAS THE
EURO RESOLVES THE HIGH TO REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE
PRIMARY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS IS THAT HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BRING WARMER/MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
THE AREA WHEREAS THE LOW LOCATED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING IN A
SOUTHEAST FLOW THAT MAY SHOW A BIT MORE OF A MARITIME INFLUENCE.
WITH WNW FLOW ALOFT AND GENERALLY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS DAILY...AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION/CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION
THAT VERIFIES AND THE GENERAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WOULD
SEEM A SAFE BET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
TUESDAYS HIGHS POSSIBLY WELL INTO THE 90S. IF THE HIGH DOES POSITION
ITSELF OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THEN TWEAKING UPWARD OF THESE
TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE AS MORE WARMER CONTINENTAL AIR WOULD BE
ADVECTED IN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE CONFINED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW PROBABILITY EXISTS FOR LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT FOR LCL MVFR/IFR. THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POST-FRONTAL AIR
MASS SHOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW CEILINGS
AND FOG COULD OCCUR IN ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO THE MORNING FRIDAY AND INTO THE MORNING SATURDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...REDUCED VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AND A PERIOD
OF SCA WINDS UP THE BAY/LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING. MARINE AREA SHOULD REMAIN THUNDERSTORM FREE THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS
TO AFFECT THE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOMALIES WERE RUNNING AROUND 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. WHAT
REMAINS OF THE AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE IS THE LOWER OF THE NEXT
TWO...AND MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL BE
VULNERABLE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AGAIN /LIKE LAST NIGHT/. WILL
BE ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANNE ARUNDEL...BALTIMORE
AND DC FOR THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MDZ011-014.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ531-
532-538>540.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ530>534-537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ533-534-
537-541>543.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP/CEB
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...BPP/CEB
MARINE...BPP/CEB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BPP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
124 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
LARGE VARIATION IN CLOUD BASES THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE TERMINAL
SITES WITH EVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOTED ON VISIBLE SAT.
HOWEVER...THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO LOWER AGAIN AND SUPPORT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON FROM FNT SOUTH.
EXPECT PREVAILING CLOUD BASES IN THE MVFR/VFR RANGE...WITH QUICK
DROPS IN CIG AND VISBY TO IFR IN HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY FROM PTK
SOUTH...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS A SURFACE
TROUGH PASSES. MOIST GROUND AN A SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF LOWERING CLOUDS AND FOG AFTER SUNSET. THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT...SWINGING
WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING VISIBILITIES.
FOR DTW...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND 22Z. MOIST ENVIRONMENT
WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN AND QUICK DROPS IN CIG AND VIS TO IFR
RANGE. USED TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN
GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KNOTS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AFTER
SUNSET...WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 04Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM TIMING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1158 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
ELEMENTS OVER THE TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB. THIS AREA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH. SOUTH OF
THIS...PRECIP IS LESS WIDESPREAD...BUT A FEW STRONGER SEGMENTS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE NOTED.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEADIER RAIN IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY BUT
STEADILY EASTWARD AS THE INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS
EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL CONTINUE AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS LOTS OF BREAKS IN THE PRECIP...LEADING TO SOME DOUBT IN THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIP FROM THE METRO DETROIT COUNTIES TO THE OHIO
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TO FILL IN SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST UPPER FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
LOOKS TO FAVOR THE AREA NORTH OF METRO DETROIT AND SOUTH OF THE TRI
CITIES...WHICH HAS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL...GIVEN
THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE...CATEGORICAL POPS EVERYWHERE LOOK
GOOD. MAIN HAZARD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH TRAINING STORMS. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAINLY FROM METRO
DETROIT TO THE OHIO BORDER...BUT OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL
LIMIT THE THREAT. EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO BEGIN A DOWNWARD TREND
OVER THE TRI-CITIES BY MIDAFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 403 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE LARGER SCALE WEATHER FEATURES HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED IF NOT STRONGER IN MAGNITUDE. THE RESULT WILL
BE A WET DAY AROUND SE MICHIGAN. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE MORNING AND LAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA. THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL
BE CONCERNED WITH THE PROGRESS OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO BORDER BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A DISTINCT JET MAX OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WHERE THE TROUGH IS PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
CANADIAN TROUGH/LOW. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET IS SETTING UP
TO SUPPORT ENHANCED LIFT ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THESE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES ARE WELL-ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS CONSISTING OF 850 MB DEWPOINT AROUND 13C,
700 MB DEWPOINT AROUND 5C, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2
INCHES. THE RESULT IS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT PRESS TIME WHICH WILL EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MORNING
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 00Z MODELS COLLECTIVELY HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON THE BULK MASS AND MOISTURE FIELDS...BUT THE NAM AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP ARE MORE THAN A SERVICEABLE REPRESENTATION OF
THE SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION SETTING UP PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM THROUGH BUFKIT ANALYSIS
INDICATE MBE VECTORS ALIGNED WITH THE MEAN FLOW...WHICH IS A HEAVY
RAINFALL SIGNATURE...BUT HIGH-RES RUNS OF THE HRRR AND WRF-NMM ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IS THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN IN THE GFS AND
ECMWF. THIS IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO HOLD OFF ON FLOOD HEADLINES FOR
NOW BUT PLAN TO HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF 1-2 INCH TOTALS AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH
THE DAY...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF SE MICHIGAN.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND
TAKE THE RAIN SHIELD OUT OF SE MICHIGAN BY MID EVENING. THAT WILL
LEAVE THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH/LOW TO PIVOT SOUTHWARD DURING
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL HELP DRY THINGS OUT FROM A RAINFALL PERSPECTIVE BUT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH WEAK GRADIENT FLOW SUPPORTING
BOTH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE SAGINAW
VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DURING
THE NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION WILL BE SLOW UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE PSEUDO ZONAL UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SOME FAIRLY BIG CHANGES IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. NWP IS NOW MORE
UNIFORM/LESS NOISY IN BRINGING THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE
DAKOTAS DIRECTLY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN FOR THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER FAVORABLE ZONE OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS
ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP SHOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN WITH JET
ENERGY THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THIS CONCURRENT FORCING SHOULD ALWAYS GIVE ONE
PAUSE AND CERTAINLY DOES HERE TOO. THE PROBLEM IS THE FORECASTED
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO BE STABLE WITH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION CENTERED BETWEEN 700-600MB. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO
BYPASS THIS FEATURE...WHICH WILL REQUIRE A HIGH AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE. NAM IS SUPPORTIVE OF THIS...BUT WITH IT/S HIGH BIAS
IT/S NOT EXACTLY A STRONG ENDORSEMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO DRY
HERE...AS THIS LOOKS LIKE A CALL FOR THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE 70S NORTH...TO NEAR 80 FOR
THE HIGH SFC PRESSURE AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GLACIAL RIDGE.
STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RISES WILL THEN LEAD
TO STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. NWP SIGNAL
IN THE MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THERE WILL ALSO BE A HEAVY COMPONENT
FROM THE STABLE LAKE AGGREGATE. DRY WEATHER WITH A MODERATING
AIRMASS SHOULD LEAD TO VERY FAVORABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN
EASTERLY FLOW TRAJECTORY SEEMS TO BE PLAYING SOME HAVOC WITH
FORECASTED SFC TEMPERATURES...BUT READINGS SHOULD PUSH 80 DEGREES
THURSDAY AND EXCEED 80 DEGREES BY FRIDAY.
MARINE...
ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK FOR THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AS A PAIR OF FRONTS WORK THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST
FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG A LINE FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE
ERIE...SOUTHWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL VEER WINDS FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
WEDNESDAY...USHERING MODEST NORTHERLY WINDS DOWN THROUGH LAKE HURON.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP WAVE
HEIGHTS IN CHECK.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DT
UPDATE.......DT
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
107 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
PROBABLY ONE OF THE BEST WAYS TO DESCRIBE SHORT-TERM FORECASTING
IN THIS FICKLE...ACTIVE SUMMER PATTERN IS "FORECASTING-BY-
NOWCASTING." ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH THAT THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE AT LEAST A LIGHT SHOWER/BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/PLACEMENT IS EVER-CHANGING AS MOST MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
MIGHTILY WITH THE DETAILS...WITH SOME DEPICTING MORE GOING ON
THAN ACTUALLY IS...AND OTHERS NOT ENOUGH. IN REALITY...THERE ARE
ESSENTIALLY 3 SEPARATE AREAS OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITHIN OR VERY
NEAR THE EDGES OF THE CWA RIGHT NOW...BUT NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW
LIKELY RANGE EXCEPT FOR WHERE RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST RAIN
SHOULD ACTUALLY OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...WHICH AS OF THIS
WRITING IS PRIMARILY THE DEPARTING MAINLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITHIN THAYER/FILLMORE COUNTIES...AND ALSO THE SMALL CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS SLIDING INTO THE VALLEY COUNTY AREA. OTHER
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS SKIRTING THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA IN KS...WHILE
MEANWHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS CURRENTLY IN WHAT COULD BE A
MULTIPLE-HOUR BREAK FROM SHOWERS/STORMS...ALTHOUGH THAT IS NO
GUARANTEE EITHER SO HAVE AT LEAST KEPT MODEST 20-30 POPS GOING IN
ALL AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH HIGHER 40S-50S
CONCENTRATED IN THE WEST.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY...THIS IS A WEAKLY-FORCED BUT WEAKLY
CAPPED PATTERN OF WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH HOURLY
MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY SUGGESTING TWO SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS...ONE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEB AND THE OTHER SLIDING
THROUGH NORTHERN KS. THESE WAVES ARE INDUCING MODEST
THETA-E/MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THE 850-700 MILLIBAR
LEVEL...WHICH IS THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE THUS-FAR
ELEVATED ACTIVITY TODAY. AGREE WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
THAT THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD STAY AT LEAST A FEW
COUNTIES WEST OF THE CWA TODAY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER AND MIXED LAYER-CAPE IS MORE FAVORED
TO AVERAGE 1000+ J/KG BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT EVEN SO...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE RISK OF A
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM LOCALLY EITHER...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST OF A LEXINGTON-OSBORNE LINE.
AS FOR OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS TODAY...UNLIKE YESTERDAY WE ARE
PROBABLY NOT LOOKING AT A WELL-DEFINED/MULTI-HOUR PERIOD OF
CLEARING AS SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY
AS NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS UPSTREAM. AS A RESULT...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PLACES HELD DOWN IN THE LOW-MID 70S FOR
HIGHS TODAY. ALTHOUGH DID NOT GO QUITE THIS LOW JUST YET...DID
SHAVE ROUGHLY 2-3 DEGREES OFF PREVIOUS HIGHS IN MOST AREAS TO GET
THE BALL ROLLING THAT DIRECTION...CALLING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA TO TOP OUT NO HIGHER THAN UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SURROUNDING RADARS SHOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. EXPECT THE
CURRENT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND INTO THE
AREA BY DAYLIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND
THE 4KM WRF BOTH HAVE THE MAIN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE
HRRR BRINGS IN ANOTHER BAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT CHANCES
IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. SEVERAL
TIMES LATELY THERE HAVE BEEN MORE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE
HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE MUCAPE IS BEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT A LITTLE REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT THERE
COULD BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN TURN INTO A RAIN EVENT DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE
LONG TERM. THE ZONAL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATE. THIS WILL
HELP KICK UP PULSES OF ENERGY INTO THE HIGH/GREAT PLAINS THAT WILL
GIVE US A SHOT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST PERIODS OF THE LONG
TERM. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES IN AND THROUGH THE AREA...ALONG WITH AN INCREASED LOW-
LEVEL JET AND POTENTIAL STRONG CONVERGENCE NEAR THE NOSE OF THE JET
NEARBY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...JUDGING BY
SEVERE PARAMETERS...FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...BUT NARROWING DOWN A
DAY THAT IT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IS TOO DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY NOW.
TEMPERATURES APPEARED TO BE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
ASIDE FROM ANY POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION...AS HAS BEEN FOR DAYS NOW...IS THE
LIKELIHOOD/EXTENT OF ANY POSSIBLE SHOWERS/STORMS IMPACTING THE
TERMINALS. FOR NOW...THE ONLY MENTION OF ANY THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBILITY AT EITHER SITE HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE INITIAL 3-7
HOURS OF THE PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND EVEN THEN
HAVE ONLY WENT WITH A GENERIC VICINITY THUNDERSTORM (VCTS) MENTION
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE. HAVE STARTED VCTS A BIT SOONER
AT KGRI GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN ONGOING STRONG STORM ONLY ABOUT
20 MILES NORTH OF THE TERMINAL...ALTHOUGH THIS STORM COULD VERY
WELL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE LATTER 12-17 HOURS OF
THE PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT EVEN HIGH ENOUGH FOR VCTS AT
THIS POINT. SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE...AGAIN
ASIDE FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM-RELATED ENHANCEMENTS...AS SUSTAINED
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE UNDER
10KT...GENERALLY FROM SOME SOME TYPE OF SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BUT
ALSO PRONE TO SOME VARIABLENESS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1101 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
PROBABLY ONE OF THE BEST WAYS TO DESCRIBE SHORT-TERM FORECASTING
IN THIS FICKLE...ACTIVE SUMMER PATTERN IS "FORECASTING-BY-
NOWCASTING." ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH THAT THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL SEE AT LEAST A LIGHT SHOWER/BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/PLACEMENT IS EVER-CHANGING AS MOST MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
MIGHTILY WITH THE DETAILS...WITH SOME DEPICTING MORE GOING ON
THAN ACTUALLY IS...AND OTHERS NOT ENOUGH. IN REALITY...THERE ARE
ESSENTIALLY 3 SEPARATE AREAS OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITHIN OR VERY
NEAR THE EDGES OF THE CWA RIGHT NOW...BUT NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW
LIKELY RANGE EXCEPT FOR WHERE RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST RAIN
SHOULD ACTUALLY OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...WHICH AS OF THIS
WRITING IS PRIMARILY THE DEPARTING MAINLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITHIN THAYER/FILLMORE COUNTIES...AND ALSO THE SMALL CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS SLIDING INTO THE VALLEY COUNTY AREA. OTHER
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS SKIRTING THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA IN KS...WHILE
MEANWHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS CURRENTLY IN WHAT COULD BE A
MULTIPLE-HOUR BREAK FROM SHOWERS/STORMS...ALTHOUGH THAT IS NO
GUARANTEE EITHER SO HAVE AT LEAST KEPT MODEST 20-30 POPS GOING IN
ALL AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH HIGHER 40S-50S
CONCENTRATED IN THE WEST.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY...THIS IS A WEAKLY-FORCED BUT WEAKLY
CAPPED PATTERN OF WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH HOURLY
MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY SUGGESTING TWO SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS...ONE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEB AND THE OTHER SLIDING
THROUGH NORTHERN KS. THESE WAVES ARE INDUCING MODEST
THETA-E/MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THE 850-700 MILLIBAR
LEVEL...WHICH IS THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE THUS-FAR
ELEVATED ACTIVITY TODAY. AGREE WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
THAT THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD STAY AT LEAST A FEW
COUNTIES WEST OF THE CWA TODAY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER AND MIXED LAYER-CAPE IS MORE FAVORED
TO AVERAGE 1000+ J/KG BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT EVEN SO...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE RISK OF A
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM LOCALLY EITHER...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST OF A LEXINGTON-OSBORNE LINE.
AS FOR OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS TODAY...UNLIKE YESTERDAY WE ARE
PROBABLY NOT LOOKING AT A WELL-DEFINED/MULTI-HOUR PERIOD OF
CLEARING AS SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY
AS NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS UPSTREAM. AS A RESULT...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PLACES HELD DOWN IN THE LOW-MID 70S FOR
HIGHS TODAY. ALTHOUGH DID NOT GO QUITE THIS LOW JUST YET...DID
SHAVE ROUGHLY 2-3 DEGREES OFF PREVIOUS HIGHS IN MOST AREAS TO GET
THE BALL ROLLING THAT DIRECTION...CALLING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA TO TOP OUT NO HIGHER THAN UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
TEMPERATURES.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SURROUNDING RADARS SHOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. EXPECT THE
CURRENT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND INTO THE
AREA BY DAYLIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND
THE 4KM WRF BOTH HAVE THE MAIN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE
HRRR BRINGS IN ANOTHER BAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT CHANCES
IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. SEVERAL
TIMES LATELY THERE HAVE BEEN MORE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON THE
HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE MUCAPE IS BEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT A LITTLE REMAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT THERE
COULD BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN TURN INTO A RAIN EVENT DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE
LONG TERM. THE ZONAL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATE. THIS WILL
HELP KICK UP PULSES OF ENERGY INTO THE HIGH/GREAT PLAINS THAT WILL
GIVE US A SHOT A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST PERIODS OF THE LONG
TERM. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES IN AND THROUGH THE AREA...ALONG WITH AN INCREASED LOW-
LEVEL JET AND POTENTIAL STRONG CONVERGENCE NEAR THE NOSE OF THE JET
NEARBY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...JUDGING BY
SEVERE PARAMETERS...FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM...BUT NARROWING DOWN A
DAY THAT IT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IS TOO DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY NOW.
TEMPERATURES APPEARED TO BE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE THE CHALLENGE FOR TODAY. A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINAL AREA SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE
A BREAK THIS AFTERNOON AND MORE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OR WHETHER
THERE WILL BE MORE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY WITH LESS DURING
THE NIGHT TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT SOME VCTS DURING THE DAY BUT WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1213 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
POSSIBLE STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTN/EVE EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MTNS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST PLAINS. VCSH FOR KLVS AND KTCC BECAUSE OF POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW CIGS EXPECTED FOR
KLVS...KTCC AND KROW INTO TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS FOR OTHER SITES
NOT IMPACTED BY STORMS.
&&
32
.PREV DISCUSSION...542 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR THE TX LINE WILL MOVE EAST INTO TX BY ABOUT
SUNRISE. DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER SE COLORADO WILL TURN/BACK WINDS TO
SWLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS BY AFTERNOON...BRINGING DRIER AIR IN FROM
WRN NM. MAIN STORM ACTIVITY TODAY EXPECTED FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS EWD TO THE FAR NE PLAINS. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
UNION AND COLFAX COUNTIES. ISOLD MAINLY DRY SHOWERS OR STORMS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH SKC OR A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS WEST.
33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...337 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER. THIS INCLUDES THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
EAST WITH THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS LATER TODAY INTO EVENING. AFTER TONIGHT... A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OR FAR EASTERN PLAINS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK...BUT HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MONITORING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. EARLY
STAGES OF A DEVELOPING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX UNDERWAY
NORTHWEST OF TUCUMCARI THAT IS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE LATEST 13KM RAP
AND 03Z HRRR ADVERTISED IF NOT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. SHALLOW
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EASTWARD COUPLED WITH A BROAD REGION
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AIDING THIS EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT
THAT IS ALIGNED ALONG A NW-SE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH A
STRONG/WELL- DEFINED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GRADIENT STRETCHING FROM
NORTH OF SANTA ROSA SEWD TOWARD THE LUBBOCK AREA. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/WX GRIDS BUT WILL LIKELY REVISIT JUST BEFORE
PUBLISHING.
TRENDS AFTER THIS MORNING/S CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WEAKENS AND/OR
EXITS TO THE EAST BETWEEN 13Z-15Z WILL BE MORE COMPLICATED... AS
WESTWARD-PUSHING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY REINFORCE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FIELDS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
REGARDLESS... ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WILL REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW AND WITH MID- LEVEL DRYING AND
SOME LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY NEED FOR
EXPANSION OF ISOLATED POPS EAST OF THE DIVIDE THE RIO GRANDE. DID
BEEF UP POPS FOR SC AREAS AS WELL AS THE FAR NE WHERE LOW LEVEL
WINDS MAY GRADUALLY BACK TO MORE EASTERLY LATE IN THE DAY
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THERE.
LESS ACTIVE TONIGHT INTO WED AM AS MID-LEVEL DRYING ADVANCES
EASTWARD BENEATH A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH LESS DEFINED
INDICATORS FOR LARGE SCALE UPWARD FORCING. EXPECT TO SEE A FAIRLY
WELL DEFINED SURFACE DRYLINE WED PM NEAR THE NM/TX LINE WITH A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER SE COLO. THE GFS DEVELOPS A WEAKER
SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH WOULD AGAIN FAVOR THE FAR NE
PLAINS FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT SEVERE BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS
TRENDING WAY DOWN SAVE FOR AREAS NEAR THE TX LINE AND POSSIBLY NE
CORNER. EVEN DRIER/LESS ACTIVE WITH INCREASED WINDINESS FOR THU
WITH AGAIN THE FOCUS FOR STORMS NEAR THE NM/TX LINE ALONG THE
DRYLINE. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SPREADS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY WITH DRYLINE REGIME
PERSISTING. 500MB HEIGHTS THEN REBOUND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
STRONGER RIDGE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD LOSE INFLUENCE OF
THE WESTERLIES BY MON/TUE...AND SIGNS THAT IT MAY PERSIST. KJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO TO MONDAY EXPECTED TODAY. BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WITH SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY THAN MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER SE COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND DRY AIR FROM
THE WEST BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY...SCOURING OUT MORE GULF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE FAR NE PLAINS.
DRY WESTERLIES WIN OUT AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY AS LEE SFC TROUGH
STRENGTHENS FURTHER. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH HIGH HAINES VALUES AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION
RATES. WEST WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE A POSSIBILITY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PRIMARILY FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE FINALLY LOSE THE WESTERLIES
ALOFT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOUR CORNERS HIGH BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN AZ AND SW NM
SUNDAY...THEN OVER CENTRAL NM MONDAY. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAY DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. MODELS HINTING THAT MONSOON MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO SEEP
NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. 33
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
346 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR FEATURE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH TONIGHT. FRONT MOVES INTO
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY/ WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER/MORE
MORE STABLE AIR THURSDAY. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INCREASE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 17Z. HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS AND LEANED THAT WAY INITIALLY. THIS GIVES HIGHER
POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ALSO IN SE OHIO/OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...ALTHOUGH HAVE SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. MAIN
DRIVER OF HIGHER POPS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW IS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. SLOWED POPS DOWN A LITTLE
BASED ON 12Z MODELS WITH LIKELY POPS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE THE LIKELY POPS TO OHIO RIVER BY 12Z. THEN
HAVE MAX POPS CROSSING WV LOWLANDS 12Z-18Z...MAXING OUT IN THE
MOUNTAINS 18Z-20Z...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING AS VORT MAX HEADS
EAST. LIKE A TYPICAL SUMMER COLD FRONT...ANTICIPATE THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY TO BE FAIRLY HARD TO PICK OUT AS IT WEAKENS AND MOVES
ACROSS FORECAST AREA...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AND CROSS CWA FROM NW TO
SE 15Z TO 21Z. WITH PWATS AROUND 2.0IN TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING WITH WEATHER. ALSO NOTE THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA FROM WPC. CONSIDERED GOING WITH A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH...BUT IN THE END DECIDED TO HOLD OFF BUT EXPAND
MENTION OF WATER CONCERNS IN HWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA.
MAIN REASON HOLDING BACK ON WATCH AT THIS POINT IS ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED AND BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING STAYS NORTH...KEEPING
CONVECTION A BIT MORE SUBDUED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BOARD AND WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROF STILL SWINGING THRU AT 00Z
THURSDAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...PICTURING A LOT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT
00Z...BUT NOT A LOT OF LIGHTNING.
THE 925 TO 850 MB LOW LEVEL FLOW ALREADY TURNING NICELY TO NORTHWEST
BY 00Z THURSDAY...BUT SURFACE FLOW WEAKENS 00Z TO 06Z THURSDAY.
SO WILL LEAVE HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY
IN WV AND SW VA. WILL MENTION SOME FOG OVER HIGH TERRAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO HAVE US FORECASTING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A
BIT HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE...EVEN THOUGH SOME SITES ALREADY BEING
RAIN COOLED AT SUNSET.
KEEPING THURSDAY DRY FOR MOST OF OUR CWA WITH MORNING CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTH BREAKING UP. WILL TRY TO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT THURSDAY
BASED ON THE MORNING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH. DO STILL HAVE 20 POPS
LATE THURSDAY IN SW VA AND PORTION OF NE KY.
OLD FRONT AND DEW POINT GRADIENT...LINGERS DOWN THE OHIO RIVER ON
FRIDAY. WILL NOT JUMP ON THE CMC SOLUTION OF STRONGER MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SWINGING THRU BY 12Z FRIDAY. IN CONTRAST...12Z GFS AND
ECWMF MUCH DRIER. LIKE THE IDEA OF LEAVING OUR POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE FOR FRIDAY...LIFTING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY WENT WITH HPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. REGION SHOULD BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN LATE IN
THE PERIOD. WILL BE SEVERAL MID-LEVEL TROFS THAT COULD INFLUENCE
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...BUT TIMING WILL BE TOUGH. SO...HAVE
TAILORED POPS TO INDICATE MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS.
WPC TEMPS LOOK GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY FOLLOWED.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA...AND
HAVE VCTS IN ALL TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INCLUDED A TEMPO AT
HTS ANTICIPATING THE LINE OF CONVECTION IN EASTERN KY TO ARRIVE
SHORTLY AFTER 21Z. ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO AT EKN FOR CONVECTION IN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WV. EXPECT A DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES DURING THE DAY. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION EXPECT VFR INTO TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR EXPECTED IN ANY
CONVECTION. LAV TRIES TO FOG THINGS IN TONIGHT...AT LEAST
MVFR...BUT THINK WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND STILL SOME LIGHT WIND IT
WILL BE HARD TO GET MUCH FOG. HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
TOMORROW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
VARY. MAY NEED BRIEF IFR AND WIND GUSTS IN STORMS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRATUS/FOG
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR SITES
RECEIVING RAIN.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
210 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR FEATURE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH TONIGHT. FRONT
DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY AS CROSSING CWA. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
EXPECTED THURSDAY. CONVECTION RETURNS FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 17Z. HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS AND LEANED THAT WAY INITIALLY. THIS GIVES HIGHER
POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ALSO IN SE OHIO/OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...ALTHOUGH HAVE SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA. MAIN
DRIVER OF HIGHER POPS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW IS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. SLOWED POPS DOWN A LITTLE
BASED ON 12Z MODELS WITH LIKLEY POPS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE THE LIKELY POPS TO OHIO RIVER BY 12Z. THEN
HAVE MAX POPS CROSSING WV LOWLANDS 12Z-18Z...MAXING OUT IN THE
MOUNTAINS 18Z-20Z...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING AS VORT MAX HEADS
EAST. LIKE A TYPICAL SUMMER COLD FRONT...ANTICIPATE THE ACTUAL
BOUNDARY TO BE FAIRLY HARD TO PICK OUT AS IT WEAKENS AND MOVES
ACROSS FORECAST AREA...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AND CROSS CWA FROM NW TO
SE 15Z TO 21Z. WITH PWATS AROUND 2.0IN TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...INCLUDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING WITH WEATHER. ALSO NOTE THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA FROM WPC. CONSIDERED GOING WITH A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH...BUT IN THE END DECIDED TO HOLD OFF BUT EXPAND
MENTION OF WATER CONCERNS IN HWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF CWA.
MAIN REASON HOLDING BACK ON WATCH AT THIS POINT IS ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED AND BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING STAYS NORTH...KEEPING
CONVECTION A BIT MORE SUBDUED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS ON
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES ALOFT. THE GULF OF MEXICO OPENS
UP AHEAD OF EACH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE THAT ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR RIDING NORTH ON LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THE RESULT WILL BE GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH EACH SYSTEM. THERE ARE OF COURSE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF EACH SYSTEM...SO WILL FOLLOW WPC/S
THINKING CLOSELY. ONE SHORT WAVE WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS
LATER WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DECREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH MOST CONVECTION SHIFTING INTO THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. EXPECT ALL CONVECTION WILL
END FAIRLY EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. AS FOR THE
FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORT WAVE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT ACTUALLY MAKES IT ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. WHETHER IT DOES OR NOT...THE DRIER AIR ABOVE THE
SURFACE MOVING IN BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE WILL SHUT OFF CONVECTION
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WHAT WILL BE LEFT WILL BE A
FLAT SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY MIX OUT SOMEWHAT WITH AFTERNOON
MIXING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WARM SIDE THURSDAY...IN THE 80S
WITH SUNSHINE...AND STILL SOMEWHAT ON THE HUMID SIDE.
NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING
DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY WENT WITH HPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. REGION SHOULD BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN LATE IN
THE PERIOD. WILL BE SEVERAL MID-LEVEL TROFS THAT COULD INFLUENCE
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...BUT TIMING WILL BE TOUGH. SO...HAVE
TAILORED POPS TO INDICATE MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS.
WPC TEMPS LOOK GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY FOLLOWED.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS CWA...AND
HAVE VCTS IN ALL TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INCLUDED A TEMPO AT
HTS ANTICIPATING THE LINE OF CONVECTION IN EASTERN KY TO ARRIVE
SHORTLY AFTER 21Z. ALSO INCLUDED A TEMPO AT EKN FOR CONVECTION IN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WV. EXPECT A DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES DURING THE DAY. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION EXPECT VFR INTO TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR EXPECTED IN ANY
CONVECTION. LAV TRIES TO FOG THINGS IN TONIGHT...AT LEAST
MVFR...BUT THINK WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND STILL SOME LIGHT WIND IT
WILL BE HARD TO GET MUCH FOG. HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
TOMORROW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
VARY. MAY NEED BRIEF IFR AND WIND GUSTS IN STORMS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRATUS/FOG
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR SITES
RECEIVING RAIN.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
235 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.AVIATION...
STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING OVER METROPLEX WHERE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LAYING. MCS/MCV APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE
LIFT AND THUS CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF MCS. HAVE
ALREADY UPDATED TAFS TO INCLUDE VCTS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TO BUMP TEMPO TIMING UP 2 HOURS FROM 22-0Z/5PM TO
7PM AS MOST LIKELY STORM WINDOW...BUT CELLS THAT DEVELOP OVERHEAD
AN AIRPORT WILL RESULT IN TSRA BEFORE THAT TEMPO WINDOW SO FURTHER
AMENDMENTS LIKELY BASED ON TRENDS. TR.92
.../PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION/...
MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND UNFORTUNATELY NO GOOD MODEL GUIDANCE
TO RELY ON FOR THIS FORECAST AS THEY ARE NOT IDENTIFYING WITH THE
CURRENT MCS/MCV BETWEEN LUBBOCK AND ABILENE. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ROUGHLY PARALLEL/ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHERE AN AXIS OF HIGH INSTABILITY RESIDES. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL POP-UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS. ALREADY SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION IS BUILDING UP SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE
METROPLEX...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH FURTHER HEATING
AND INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE MCS/MCV TO THE WEST.
ESSENTIALLY THERE IS PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL
AFFECT THE REGION SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT IT IS A MORE DIFFICULT CALL TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE
STORMS WILL EXTEND AS FAR NORTH INTO THE METROPLEX TAF SITES.
GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF UNCAPPED INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE METROPLEX...IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE A VCTS FORECAST
STARTING AT 21-22Z FOR ANY POP-UP STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THE
MCS TO THE NW WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND REACH THE METROPLEX IN THE
23-02Z WINDOW THIS EVENING FOR INCLUSION OF A TEMPO TSRA THEN.
AT WACO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT MCS WILL REACH THE AREA AROUND
01-03Z AND A TEMPO TSRA IS INDICATED THERE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND UPDATE AS
NECESSARY. OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF STORMS...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.
TR.92
&&
.UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE CWA...MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY IS TO OUR WEST
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS. REGARDING RAIN/STORM
POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...OUR POTENTIAL FOCUSES ON
TWO DIFFERENT AREAS. THE FIRST IS A BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY LIES
ALONG A LINE FROM EMORY TO DFW TO SOUTH OF GRAHAM. THE WINDS NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE WINDS SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY ARE FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY VARY MORE MAKING THE IDENTIFICATION OF THE BOUNDARY
EASIER IN THAT REGARD. DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE
UPPER 60S WITH 70S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE WINDS IN THE
METROPLEX HAVE BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS HOUR WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 70 SUGGESTING MAYBE THIS BOUNDARY IS LIFTING
NORTH SOME. AS TEMPERATURES WARM SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY INTO THE
UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE WITH VALUES UP TO 4000 J/KG IN SOME LOCATIONS. WIND SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE LOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...AND AS DESCRIBED
IN THIS MORNINGS DISCUSSION...STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD QUICKLY
BECOME STRONG/SEVERE BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BE ORGANIZED DUE TO THE
WEAK SHEAR. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
MICROBURST WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN NUISANCE FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING
AS STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10-15 MPH. NEW
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THIS AFTERNOONS STORMS WHICH COULD INCREASE A LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.
THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX OF STORMS CURRENTLY IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TO THE EAST OF LUBBOCK. THIS COMPLEX IS RIDING ITS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND QUICKLY MOVING SOUTHEAST. WE ANTICIPATE THIS
MCS TO REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. DESPITE THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO THIS
SYSTEM...IT IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN ITS COMPOSURE ENOUGH TO REACH
THE CWA BASED ON ITS COLD POOL INTERACTIONS. IN ADDITION...THE MCS
IS HEADING INTO A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH TEXAS WHICH WOULD FAVOR ITS MAINTENANCE LONG
ENOUGH TO REACH NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WHEN THE COMPLEX REACHES OUR
COUNTIES IT COULD BE SEVERE WITH A DAMAGING WIND...HEAVY
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY HAIL THREAT. IN ADDITION...STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX ACROSS AREAS NORTHWEST OF ABILENE.
THIS SUPPORTS AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. THESE NEW STORMS ARE NOT MOVING VERY FAST AND WILL
LIKELY BE ABSORBED BY THE MCS.
FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY AND EVENING WITH 50 POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH
HALVES OF THE CWA. DID NOT ADJUST TEMPERATURES MUCH...BUT HIGH
CLOUD DEBRIS AND AREAS OF RAIN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER IN SOME LOCATIONS.
82/JLD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/
08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN PLACE
FROM SULPHUR SPRINGS TO BURLESON TO BRECKENRIDGE. THERE WERE WEAK
GRADIENTS OF BOTH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WITH COOLER VALUES LOCATED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LOOKING AT THE
GRADIENT OF EITHER TEMPERATURE OR DEW POINT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THIS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OF THETA-E WITH A CHANGE
OF ALMOST 8 KELVIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AS A
RESULT...THINK THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY. IT MAY HOLD SOME
IDENTITY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL IF SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ACCURATE. THE 07Z RAP INDICATED THAT THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDS UP TO THE 850 MB LEVEL WHERE THE THETA-E GRADIENT IS EVEN
MORE PRONOUNCED...SHOWING A THETA-E CHANGE OF 12-16 KELVIN ALONG
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE MAIN POINT OF THIS ANALYSIS
IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS AS THROUGH IT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
REMAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA AS WE APPROACH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
OF THE DAY. IF IT STILL EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON...IT COULD BE A BIG
PLAYER IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION TODAY.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TODAY...ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS IMPORTANT FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY AS MOST GUIDANCE ADVERTISES QPF ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SOMETIME
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF WHEN THIS QPF
SHOWS UP IS THE KEY DIFFERENCE AMONGST THE MODELS. MANY OF THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW QPF OR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. IF
THIS OCCURS...THE CONVECTION THAT IS INITIATED WILL PROBABLY BE
RELATIVELY WEAK IN NATURE AND MAY BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT OVER THE BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED A NICE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. IT`S HARD TO SAY WHETHER THIS
CONVECTION WOULD BE ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE BOUNDARY OR NOT IF IT
DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. IF NOTHING ELSE...IT WILL ADD CLOUDS OVER
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWING DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO
REDUCE THE IDENTITY OF THE BOUNDARY BY WARMING THE COOL SIDE AND
KEEPING THE WARM SIDE SHIELDED FROM SUNSHINE/HEATING. IT`S
PROBABLY FOR THIS REASON THAT MOST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
MEMBERS HAVE MORNING CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.
IF THERE IS LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...THIS BOUNDARY PROBABLY HAS A BETTER CHANCE AT INITIATING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS USUALLY FAIRLY RELIABLE WHEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SIGNAL OF
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG A COMMON BOUNDARY AROUND A COMMON
TIME. THEREFORE...THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE THAT
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING RATHER THAN HOLDING
OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ONLY REASON TO DOUBT SOME OF THE MODELS SHOWING THIS MORNING
CONVECTION IS THE LACK OF RESPONSE IN THE REST OF THE MASS FIELDS
WHERE THE QPF IS LOCATED. THAT IS...SOME POSITIVE QPF SHOWS UP
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THIS SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE...HOWEVER THERE
IS NO INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND NO LOW-LEVEL
RESPONSE IN THE WIND FIELDS. BRINGING MODEL LOGIC INTO THE REAL
WORLD...THAT`S LIKE SAYING...WE`RE GOING TO HAVE RAIN...BUT NO
CLOUDS. IT DOESN`T MAKE SENSE. AS A RESULT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE MODELS ARE SIMPLY PUTTING QPF OUT THERE BECAUSE THERE`S A
BOUNDARY AND WE HAVE SOME MOISTURE AND CAPE IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.
FOR MODELS THAT DO NOT SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...THOSE SOLUTIONS REALLY RAMP UP THE CAPE AND MOISTURE
POOLING SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE MODELS
INDICATE LOWER TO MID-70S DEW POINTS POOLING UP JUST SOUTH OF THE
DFW AREA THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN OVER 4000 J/KG OF CAPE.
GRANTED...THERE IS VERY WEAK WIND SHEAR...SO EVEN IF STORMS
DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THEY PROBABLY WILL NOT BE VERY
ORGANIZED. THAT SAID...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH 4000 J/KG OF
CAPE WILL GET BIG...FAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MICROBURSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT. ALSO...IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT DEVELOP THIS MORNING...THE BOUNDARY WILL
PROBABLY MOVE A BIT WITH THE WESTERN PART OF THE BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTH. IN THIS SCENARIO THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NEAR A BOWIE
TO GRAPEVINE TO EMORY LINE BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. WITH WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A COUPLE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON
JUST IN CASE THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT.
THIS FORECAST PROBLEM SHOULD AT LEAST BE FAIRLY EASY TO FIGURE OUT
TODAY...IF WE END UP WITH SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT
PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...WE HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE AT WASHING OUT OUR BOUNDARY...MAKING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LESS LIKELY. IF THERE IS BRIEF OR NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED
STRONG STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS IN THE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE TODAY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW TODAY WILL PLAY OUT. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST MODELS HAVE THIS BOUNDARY GETTING WASHED OUT BY
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR TONIGHT...IF WE GET A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY LINGERING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...IF NOTHING GETS GOING THIS AFTERNOON...OUR ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
CONSISTENTLY SHOW A SQUALL LINE ORGANIZING LATE TONIGHT. IF THE
SQUALL LINE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH...IT WILL CREATE ITS OWN MINI-
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT COULD PROPAGATE IT SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH TEXAS
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT AS GREAT AS
IT WAS FOR YESTERDAY MORNING...MAINLY BECAUSE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
SOMEWHAT LACKING IN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS THAT HELPS BALANCE COLD-POOL STRENGTH AND
REALLY HELPS LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS BECOME ORGANIZED INTO THEIR
OWN MINI-WEATHER SYSTEM. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR...THESE STORM COMPLEXES STILL BECOME QUITE STRONG WHERE THEY
ORIGINATE...BUT TEND TO LOSE THEIR COLD POOLS AND DISSIPATE WHEN
THEY BEGIN TO PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. BECAUSE OF THE
LACK OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...ONLY WENT WITH 30 POPS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ASSUMING
THIS PANS OUT...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ALSO...MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF A STRONGER THAN NORMAL SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST TOMORROW. AT LEAST THAT`S WHAT IT
LOOKS LIKE IN THE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS. AT ANY
RATE...WITH THE CONSISTENCY OF MODELS SHOWING QPF...WITH
CLOUDS...MOVING IN FROM THE GULF COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WENT
AHEAD AND KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE WEDNESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SORT OF MEANDER SOUTH AND JUST BECOME A GENERAL
WEAKNESS ALOFT STUCK IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGES TO OUR WEST AND
EAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY A BIT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SPREADING SOME FORCING
FOR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA. AS A RESULT...KEPT
HIGHEST POP CHANCES FOR THURSDAY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
AS THIS IS FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE AND STILL WELL WITHIN
THE MODEL CONSENSUS LOCATION OF THE COL/UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS AREA.
WE WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH LITTLE CAP IN PLACE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...SO KEPT
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A
STRONG WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARDS OVER THE
ROCKIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS
RESULTING IN LAYING THE NORTHERN MEXICO UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTH
TEXAS BY FRIDAY...AND HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT INDICATE THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STAY WEST RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT
WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE
GFS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND AS
RESULT WAS RELIED UPON HEAVILY IN THIS FORECAST. THE GFS HAS UPPER
LEVEL RIDING IN PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGING ONLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
DURING THIS PERIOD AS A RESULT. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND GRADUALLY
RAISED TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IF THIS VERIFIES...WE MAY
GET INTO OUR FIRST 100 DEGREE HIGHS HERE BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. THAT`S A LONG WAYS OUT OF COURSE...BUT THE PATTERN
LOOKS HOT AND DRY FOR NOW.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 75 93 75 91 75 / 40 40 20 30 10
WACO, TX 73 90 73 92 76 / 50 50 20 30 10
PARIS, TX 72 90 72 89 72 / 20 40 20 40 20
DENTON, TX 73 91 73 91 74 / 30 40 20 30 10
MCKINNEY, TX 74 92 74 91 74 / 30 40 20 40 20
DALLAS, TX 75 92 74 91 75 / 40 40 20 40 20
TERRELL, TX 76 93 76 92 75 / 40 30 20 40 20
CORSICANA, TX 73 90 73 91 75 / 50 50 20 40 20
TEMPLE, TX 72 90 73 90 76 / 50 50 20 30 20
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 90 71 90 74 / 50 30 20 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1249 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDELY-SCATTERED REGIONAL SHOWERS THAT WILL MOST LIKELY AFFECT
MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY...DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM CELLS
COVERED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TEMPOS. CLUSTERS OF RAIN WILL
CREATE BRIEF (L)IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN HEAVY RAIN LIMITING VISIBILITIES
TO A MILE OR UNDER. STRONGEST CELLS COULD PUT OUT DOWNBURST WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS IN GUST. QUIET VFR OVERNIGHT...LULL WILL COME
TO END SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW ONCE ATMOSPHERE RECHARGES AND
VCSH COMMENCE AFTER 25/14Z. WET GROUND WILL INTRODUCE THE CHANCE
FOR MVFR DECKS AND/OR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 25/09-13Z...ESPECIALLY
OVER HUBS THAT RECEIVE A GOOD SOAKING TODAY. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/
UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
AT 13Z...A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. 12Z CRP SOUNDINGS
SHOWS PW VALUES OF 2.00 INCHES AND LCH WAS NEAR 1.80 INCHES.
CONVECTIVE TEMP IS AROUND 84 AT CRP AND AROUND 88 DEGREES AT LCH.
AT 850 MB...A MOIST AXIS EXTENDED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM BRO TO
FWD WITH 850 MB DEW PTS BETWEEN 15-17 C ACROSS SE TX. AN 850
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM SHV TO AROUND AUS. AT 700 MB...THE BEST
MSTR WAS TO THE NE OF THE REGION BUT ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED
FROM ABOUT DFW TO DRT. AT 250 MB...DIVERGENCE WAS NOTED OVER EAST
TEXAS AND ALSO OVER WEST TEXAS WITH A SPEED MAX OVER SOUTH TEXAS.
SINCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY LOW WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF
MID LEVEL BOUNDARIES AND EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...FEEL
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTN. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES AND HIGH END
CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THE RAP AND ARW ALSO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE LATER TODAY. CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL WREAK HAVOC
WITH MAX TEMPS BUT WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FCST VALUES FOR NOW. NEW
ZONES OUT BY 1000 AM. 43
&&
.MARINE... RADAR SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM STREAMING NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD SEE THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CELLS TODAY...WITH GREATER COVERAGE LIKELY WED AND THU. WINDS
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE...BUT WILL LIKELY BUMP UP MORE 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND POSSIBLY
HIGHER WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN
RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. ALONG WITH THE
INCREASING WINDS...EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE IN THAT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY TIME FRAME. WITH THE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS WOULD EXPECT
AT LEAST SCEC AND POSSIBLY SCA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. 46
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 89 75 91 75 / 30 60 20 40 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 89 76 90 76 / 30 60 30 60 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 87 81 89 80 / 40 50 40 50 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1247 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND UNFORTUNATELY NO GOOD MODEL GUIDANCE
TO RELY ON FOR THIS FORECAST AS THEY ARE NOT IDENTIFYING WITH THE
CURRENT MCS/MCV BETWEEN LUBBOCK AND ABILENE. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ROUGHLY PARALLEL/ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHERE AN AXIS OF HIGH INSTABILITY RESIDES. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL POP-UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS INSTABILITY AXIS. ALREADY SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION IS BUILDING UP SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE
METROPLEX...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH FURTHER HEATING
AND INCREASING LIFT AHEAD OF THE MCS/MCV TO THE WEST.
ESSENTIALLY THERE IS PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL
AFFECT THE REGION SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT IT IS A MORE DIFFICULT CALL TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE
STORMS WILL EXTEND AS FAR NORTH INTO THE METROPLEX TAF SITES.
GIVEN THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF UNCAPPED INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE METROPLEX...IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE A VCTS FORECAST
STARTING AT 21-22Z FOR ANY POP-UP STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THE
MCS TO THE NW WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND REACH THE METROPLEX IN THE
23-02Z WINDOW THIS EVENING FOR INCLUSION OF A TEMPO TSRA THEN.
AT WACO CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT MCS WILL REACH THE AREA AROUND
01-03Z AND A TEMPO TSRA IS INDICATED THERE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND UPDATE AS
NECESSARY. OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF STORMS...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.
TR.92
&&
.UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE CWA...MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY IS TO OUR WEST
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS. REGARDING RAIN/STORM
POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...OUR POTENTIAL FOCUSES ON
TWO DIFFERENT AREAS. THE FIRST IS A BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY LIES
ALONG A LINE FROM EMORY TO DFW TO SOUTH OF GRAHAM. THE WINDS NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE WINDS SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY ARE FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY VARY MORE MAKING THE IDENTIFICATION OF THE BOUNDARY
EASIER IN THAT REGARD. DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE
UPPER 60S WITH 70S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE WINDS IN THE
METROPLEX HAVE BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS HOUR WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 70 SUGGESTING MAYBE THIS BOUNDARY IS LIFTING
NORTH SOME. AS TEMPERATURES WARM SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY INTO THE
UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE WITH VALUES UP TO 4000 J/KG IN SOME LOCATIONS. WIND SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE LOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...AND AS DESCRIBED
IN THIS MORNINGS DISCUSSION...STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD QUICKLY
BECOME STRONG/SEVERE BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BE ORGANIZED DUE TO THE
WEAK SHEAR. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
MICROBURST WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN NUISANCE FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING
AS STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10-15 MPH. NEW
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THIS AFTERNOONS STORMS WHICH COULD INCREASE A LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.
THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX OF STORMS CURRENTLY IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TO THE EAST OF LUBBOCK. THIS COMPLEX IS RIDING ITS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND QUICKLY MOVING SOUTHEAST. WE ANTICIPATE THIS
MCS TO REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. DESPITE THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO THIS
SYSTEM...IT IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN ITS COMPOSURE ENOUGH TO REACH
THE CWA BASED ON ITS COLD POOL INTERACTIONS. IN ADDITION...THE MCS
IS HEADING INTO A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH TEXAS WHICH WOULD FAVOR ITS MAINTENANCE LONG
ENOUGH TO REACH NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WHEN THE COMPLEX REACHES OUR
COUNTIES IT COULD BE SEVERE WITH A DAMAGING WIND...HEAVY
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY HAIL THREAT. IN ADDITION...STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX ACROSS AREAS NORTHWEST OF ABILENE.
THIS SUPPORTS AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. THESE NEW STORMS ARE NOT MOVING VERY FAST AND WILL
LIKELY BE ABSORBED BY THE MCS.
FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY AND EVENING WITH 50 POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH
HALVES OF THE CWA. DID NOT ADJUST TEMPERATURES MUCH...BUT HIGH
CLOUD DEBRIS AND AREAS OF RAIN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER IN SOME LOCATIONS.
82/JLD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/
08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN PLACE
FROM SULPHUR SPRINGS TO BURLESON TO BRECKENRIDGE. THERE WERE WEAK
GRADIENTS OF BOTH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WITH COOLER VALUES LOCATED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LOOKING AT THE
GRADIENT OF EITHER TEMPERATURE OR DEW POINT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THIS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OF THETA-E WITH A CHANGE
OF ALMOST 8 KELVIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AS A
RESULT...THINK THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY. IT MAY HOLD SOME
IDENTITY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL IF SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ACCURATE. THE 07Z RAP INDICATED THAT THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDS UP TO THE 850 MB LEVEL WHERE THE THETA-E GRADIENT IS EVEN
MORE PRONOUNCED...SHOWING A THETA-E CHANGE OF 12-16 KELVIN ALONG
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE MAIN POINT OF THIS ANALYSIS
IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS AS THROUGH IT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
REMAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA AS WE APPROACH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
OF THE DAY. IF IT STILL EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON...IT COULD BE A BIG
PLAYER IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION TODAY.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TODAY...ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS IMPORTANT FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY AS MOST GUIDANCE ADVERTISES QPF ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SOMETIME
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF WHEN THIS QPF
SHOWS UP IS THE KEY DIFFERENCE AMONGST THE MODELS. MANY OF THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW QPF OR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. IF
THIS OCCURS...THE CONVECTION THAT IS INITIATED WILL PROBABLY BE
RELATIVELY WEAK IN NATURE AND MAY BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT OVER THE BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED A NICE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. IT`S HARD TO SAY WHETHER THIS
CONVECTION WOULD BE ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE BOUNDARY OR NOT IF IT
DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. IF NOTHING ELSE...IT WILL ADD CLOUDS OVER
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWING DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO
REDUCE THE IDENTITY OF THE BOUNDARY BY WARMING THE COOL SIDE AND
KEEPING THE WARM SIDE SHIELDED FROM SUNSHINE/HEATING. IT`S
PROBABLY FOR THIS REASON THAT MOST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
MEMBERS HAVE MORNING CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.
IF THERE IS LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...THIS BOUNDARY PROBABLY HAS A BETTER CHANCE AT INITIATING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS USUALLY FAIRLY RELIABLE WHEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SIGNAL OF
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG A COMMON BOUNDARY AROUND A COMMON
TIME. THEREFORE...THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE THAT
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING RATHER THAN HOLDING
OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ONLY REASON TO DOUBT SOME OF THE MODELS SHOWING THIS MORNING
CONVECTION IS THE LACK OF RESPONSE IN THE REST OF THE MASS FIELDS
WHERE THE QPF IS LOCATED. THAT IS...SOME POSITIVE QPF SHOWS UP
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THIS SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE...HOWEVER THERE
IS NO INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND NO LOW-LEVEL
RESPONSE IN THE WIND FIELDS. BRINGING MODEL LOGIC INTO THE REAL
WORLD...THAT`S LIKE SAYING...WE`RE GOING TO HAVE RAIN...BUT NO
CLOUDS. IT DOESN`T MAKE SENSE. AS A RESULT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE MODELS ARE SIMPLY PUTTING QPF OUT THERE BECAUSE THERE`S A
BOUNDARY AND WE HAVE SOME MOISTURE AND CAPE IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.
FOR MODELS THAT DO NOT SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...THOSE SOLUTIONS REALLY RAMP UP THE CAPE AND MOISTURE
POOLING SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE MODELS
INDICATE LOWER TO MID-70S DEW POINTS POOLING UP JUST SOUTH OF THE
DFW AREA THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN OVER 4000 J/KG OF CAPE.
GRANTED...THERE IS VERY WEAK WIND SHEAR...SO EVEN IF STORMS
DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THEY PROBABLY WILL NOT BE VERY
ORGANIZED. THAT SAID...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH 4000 J/KG OF
CAPE WILL GET BIG...FAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MICROBURSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT. ALSO...IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT DEVELOP THIS MORNING...THE BOUNDARY WILL
PROBABLY MOVE A BIT WITH THE WESTERN PART OF THE BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTH. IN THIS SCENARIO THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NEAR A BOWIE
TO GRAPEVINE TO EMORY LINE BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. WITH WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A COUPLE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON
JUST IN CASE THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT.
THIS FORECAST PROBLEM SHOULD AT LEAST BE FAIRLY EASY TO FIGURE OUT
TODAY...IF WE END UP WITH SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT
PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...WE HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE AT WASHING OUT OUR BOUNDARY...MAKING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LESS LIKELY. IF THERE IS BRIEF OR NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED
STRONG STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS IN THE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE TODAY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW TODAY WILL PLAY OUT. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST MODELS HAVE THIS BOUNDARY GETTING WASHED OUT BY
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR TONIGHT...IF WE GET A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY LINGERING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...IF NOTHING GETS GOING THIS AFTERNOON...OUR ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
CONSISTENTLY SHOW A SQUALL LINE ORGANIZING LATE TONIGHT. IF THE
SQUALL LINE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH...IT WILL CREATE ITS OWN MINI-
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT COULD PROPAGATE IT SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH TEXAS
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT AS GREAT AS
IT WAS FOR YESTERDAY MORNING...MAINLY BECAUSE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
SOMEWHAT LACKING IN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS THAT HELPS BALANCE COLD-POOL STRENGTH AND
REALLY HELPS LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS BECOME ORGANIZED INTO THEIR
OWN MINI-WEATHER SYSTEM. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR...THESE STORM COMPLEXES STILL BECOME QUITE STRONG WHERE THEY
ORIGINATE...BUT TEND TO LOSE THEIR COLD POOLS AND DISSIPATE WHEN
THEY BEGIN TO PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. BECAUSE OF THE
LACK OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...ONLY WENT WITH 30 POPS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ASSUMING
THIS PANS OUT...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ALSO...MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF A STRONGER THAN NORMAL SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST TOMORROW. AT LEAST THAT`S WHAT IT
LOOKS LIKE IN THE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS. AT ANY
RATE...WITH THE CONSISTENCY OF MODELS SHOWING QPF...WITH
CLOUDS...MOVING IN FROM THE GULF COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WENT
AHEAD AND KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE WEDNESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SORT OF MEANDER SOUTH AND JUST BECOME A GENERAL
WEAKNESS ALOFT STUCK IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGES TO OUR WEST AND
EAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY A BIT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SPREADING SOME FORCING
FOR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA. AS A RESULT...KEPT
HIGHEST POP CHANCES FOR THURSDAY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
AS THIS IS FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE AND STILL WELL WITHIN
THE MODEL CONSENSUS LOCATION OF THE COL/UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS AREA.
WE WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH LITTLE CAP IN PLACE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...SO KEPT
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A
STRONG WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARDS OVER THE
ROCKIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS
RESULTING IN LAYING THE NORTHERN MEXICO UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTH
TEXAS BY FRIDAY...AND HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT INDICATE THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STAY WEST RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT
WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE
GFS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND AS
RESULT WAS RELIED UPON HEAVILY IN THIS FORECAST. THE GFS HAS UPPER
LEVEL RIDING IN PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGING ONLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
DURING THIS PERIOD AS A RESULT. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND GRADUALLY
RAISED TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IF THIS VERIFIES...WE MAY
GET INTO OUR FIRST 100 DEGREE HIGHS HERE BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. THAT`S A LONG WAYS OUT OF COURSE...BUT THE PATTERN
LOOKS HOT AND DRY FOR NOW.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 92 75 93 75 91 / 40 40 40 20 30
WACO, TX 90 73 90 73 92 / 50 50 50 20 30
PARIS, TX 89 72 90 72 89 / 20 20 40 20 40
DENTON, TX 91 73 91 73 91 / 30 30 40 20 30
MCKINNEY, TX 92 74 92 74 91 / 30 30 40 20 40
DALLAS, TX 92 75 92 74 91 / 40 40 40 20 40
TERRELL, TX 93 76 93 76 92 / 40 40 30 20 40
CORSICANA, TX 89 73 90 73 91 / 50 50 50 20 40
TEMPLE, TX 91 72 90 73 90 / 50 50 50 20 30
MINERAL WELLS, TX 89 72 90 71 90 / 50 50 30 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1231 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...DEEPER MOISTURE TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY HAS RESULTED
IN INCREASED SHOWER AND EMBEDDED TSTORM COVERAGE. ENHANCED SEA
BREEZE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY BISECTING CAMERON COUNTY INTO WEST
AND EAST HALVES...HAVING EARLIER AFFLICTED THE BROWNSVILLE AREA
AND NOW MOVING OVER THE HRL ENVIRONS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRAIN NORTH OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES...WITH DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY
MOVING UP FROM MEXICO OVER THE MID VALLEY AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON.
THE RUC AND NAM SEEM TO AGREE ON THE BEST COVERAGE SHIFTING INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD AMELIORATE THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 MPH...BUT A REPEAT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR BKN TO OVC VFR CEILINGS EXCEPT
NEAR SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WHEN CEILINGS MAY DROP
BELOW 3 KFT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...A MIX OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. EXPECT A MIX
OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 14Z. WILL MENTION A
TEMPO GROUP AT BRO DUE TO CEILINGS AT 800 FEET. WEAK 500 MB
TROUGH/LOW ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
VICINITY SHOWERS AFTER 15Z WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE BY 15Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY RETURN TO THE REGION AFTER 08Z BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT
THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER AN AREA OF MID LEVEL
WEAKNESS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE INFLUX OF ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH DEEP ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAKNESS ALOFT
WILL PROVIDE INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME OF THE SLOWER
MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
SCATTERED POPS FOR TODAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. WILL MENTION HIGH
END SCATTERED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BETTER SEA BREEZE CONVECTION.
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR THE
COAST TO THE MID TO UPPER ACROSS THE WEST TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN TODAY
DUE TO BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND THICKER CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME. 500 MB
TROUGHINESS OVER THE TEXAS COASTLINE WILL PERSIST BETWEEN A 500 MB
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. WITH SURGES OF VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2 AND 2.3 INCHES...ENTERING DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
COMBINING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT. SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 14 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3.3 FEET AT
0750 UTC /0250 AM CDT. THE LATEST OBSERVATION PLATFORMS ACROSS THE
LAGUNA MADRE INDICATES SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 9 TO 13 KNOTS.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL INTERACT WITH LOWER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. THE LATEST
NAM/GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS NO LONGER SUPPORTS LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS. SO HAVE
LOWERED WINDS AND SEAS DOWN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL WEAKNESS PERSISTS
OVERHEAD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE
COAST OF LOUISIANA WILL INTERACT WITH PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS...PRODUCING WINDS AND SEAS THAT
WILL BE MORE INDICATIVE OF SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION EARLY IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS
INTENSIFIES...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY...SUCH THAT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WILL BE MORE
LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
54/53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1125 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE CWA...MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY IS TO OUR WEST
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS. REGARDING RAIN/STORM
POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...OUR POTENTIAL FOCUSES ON
TWO DIFFERENT AREAS. THE FIRST IS A BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY LIES
ALONG A LINE FROM EMORY TO DFW TO SOUTH OF GRAHAM. THE WINDS NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE WINDS SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY ARE FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
BOUNDARY VARY MORE MAKING THE IDENTIFICATION OF THE BOUNDARY
EASIER IN THAT REGARD. DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE
UPPER 60S WITH 70S SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE WINDS IN THE
METROPLEX HAVE BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS HOUR WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING TO AROUND 70 SUGGESTING MAYBE THIS BOUNDARY IS LIFTING
NORTH SOME. AS TEMPERATURES WARM SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY INTO THE
UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...CAPE VALUES WILL
INCREASE WITH VALUES UP TO 4000 J/KG IN SOME LOCATIONS. WIND SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE LOW...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...AND AS DESCRIBED
IN THIS MORNINGS DISCUSSION...STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD QUICKLY
BECOME STRONG/SEVERE BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BE ORGANIZED DUE TO THE
WEAK SHEAR. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS WILL HAVE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
MICROBURST WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN NUISANCE FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING
AS STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10-15 MPH. NEW
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM THIS AFTERNOONS STORMS WHICH COULD INCREASE A LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.
THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX OF STORMS CURRENTLY IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TO THE EAST OF LUBBOCK. THIS COMPLEX IS RIDING ITS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND QUICKLY MOVING SOUTHEAST. WE ANTICIPATE THIS
MCS TO REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. DESPITE THE WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW INTO THIS
SYSTEM...IT IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN ITS COMPOSURE ENOUGH TO REACH
THE CWA BASED ON ITS COLD POOL INTERACTIONS. IN ADDITION...THE MCS
IS HEADING INTO A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH TEXAS WHICH WOULD FAVOR ITS MAINTENANCE LONG
ENOUGH TO REACH NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. WHEN THE COMPLEX REACHES OUR
COUNTIES IT COULD BE SEVERE WITH A DAMAGING WIND...HEAVY
RAIN...AND POSSIBLY HAIL THREAT. IN ADDITION...STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX ACROSS AREAS NORTHWEST OF ABILENE.
THIS SUPPORTS AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. THESE NEW STORMS ARE NOT MOVING VERY FAST AND WILL
LIKELY BE ABSORBED BY THE MCS.
FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY AND EVENING WITH 50 POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH
HALVES OF THE CWA. DID NOT ADJUST TEMPERATURES MUCH...BUT HIGH
CLOUD DEBRIS AND AREAS OF RAIN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER IN SOME LOCATIONS.
82/JLD
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 613 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED BETWEEN
THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX AND THE WACO/TEMPLE/KILLEEN AREA.
THE LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY LOCATED ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
BETWEEN THE METROPLEX AND WACO WITH CELL MOVEMENT DUE EAST...SO
DIRECT IMPACT AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS APPEARS FARLY SLIM FOR THE
TIME BEING.
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY
EAST. LARGE DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN VARIOUS COMPUTER MODELS
WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AM LEANING CLOSE
TO THE NAM12 SOLUTION FOR ONSET OF CONVECTION AT AREA TERMINALS
BECAUSE IT SEAMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT FEATURES
AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. WILL INTRODUCE VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS
AROUND 22-00Z THIS EVENING AND FINE TUNE THE TIMING IN LATER FORECASTS
IF IT BECOMES NECESSARY.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014/
08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN PLACE
FROM SULPHUR SPRINGS TO BURLESON TO BRECKENRIDGE. THERE WERE WEAK
GRADIENTS OF BOTH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WITH COOLER VALUES LOCATED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LOOKING AT THE
GRADIENT OF EITHER TEMPERATURE OR DEW POINT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS
NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THIS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OF THETA-E WITH A CHANGE
OF ALMOST 8 KELVIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AS A
RESULT...THINK THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING HOURS OF THE DAY TODAY. IT MAY HOLD SOME
IDENTITY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL IF SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ACCURATE. THE 07Z RAP INDICATED THAT THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDS UP TO THE 850 MB LEVEL WHERE THE THETA-E GRADIENT IS EVEN
MORE PRONOUNCED...SHOWING A THETA-E CHANGE OF 12-16 KELVIN ALONG
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE MAIN POINT OF THIS ANALYSIS
IS THAT THIS BOUNDARY APPEARS AS THROUGH IT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
REMAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA AS WE APPROACH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
OF THE DAY. IF IT STILL EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON...IT COULD BE A BIG
PLAYER IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION TODAY.
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR TODAY...ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS IMPORTANT FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY AS MOST GUIDANCE ADVERTISES QPF ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SOMETIME
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF WHEN THIS QPF
SHOWS UP IS THE KEY DIFFERENCE AMONGST THE MODELS. MANY OF THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW QPF OR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY JUST AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. IF
THIS OCCURS...THE CONVECTION THAT IS INITIATED WILL PROBABLY BE
RELATIVELY WEAK IN NATURE AND MAY BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT OVER THE BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED A NICE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. IT`S HARD TO SAY WHETHER THIS
CONVECTION WOULD BE ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE BOUNDARY OR NOT IF IT
DEVELOPS THIS MORNING. IF NOTHING ELSE...IT WILL ADD CLOUDS OVER
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWING DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO
REDUCE THE IDENTITY OF THE BOUNDARY BY WARMING THE COOL SIDE AND
KEEPING THE WARM SIDE SHIELDED FROM SUNSHINE/HEATING. IT`S
PROBABLY FOR THIS REASON THAT MOST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
MEMBERS HAVE MORNING CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.
IF THERE IS LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...THIS BOUNDARY PROBABLY HAS A BETTER CHANCE AT INITIATING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS USUALLY FAIRLY RELIABLE WHEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SIGNAL OF
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG A COMMON BOUNDARY AROUND A COMMON
TIME. THEREFORE...THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE THAT
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING RATHER THAN HOLDING
OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ONLY REASON TO DOUBT SOME OF THE MODELS SHOWING THIS MORNING
CONVECTION IS THE LACK OF RESPONSE IN THE REST OF THE MASS FIELDS
WHERE THE QPF IS LOCATED. THAT IS...SOME POSITIVE QPF SHOWS UP
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THIS SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE...HOWEVER THERE
IS NO INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND NO LOW-LEVEL
RESPONSE IN THE WIND FIELDS. BRINGING MODEL LOGIC INTO THE REAL
WORLD...THAT`S LIKE SAYING...WE`RE GOING TO HAVE RAIN...BUT NO
CLOUDS. IT DOESN`T MAKE SENSE. AS A RESULT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE MODELS ARE SIMPLY PUTTING QPF OUT THERE BECAUSE THERE`S A
BOUNDARY AND WE HAVE SOME MOISTURE AND CAPE IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.
FOR MODELS THAT DO NOT SHOW MUCH ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...THOSE SOLUTIONS REALLY RAMP UP THE CAPE AND MOISTURE
POOLING SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE MODELS
INDICATE LOWER TO MID-70S DEW POINTS POOLING UP JUST SOUTH OF THE
DFW AREA THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN OVER 4000 J/KG OF CAPE.
GRANTED...THERE IS VERY WEAK WIND SHEAR...SO EVEN IF STORMS
DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THEY PROBABLY WILL NOT BE VERY
ORGANIZED. THAT SAID...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH 4000 J/KG OF
CAPE WILL GET BIG...FAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MICROBURSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT. ALSO...IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT DEVELOP THIS MORNING...THE BOUNDARY WILL
PROBABLY MOVE A BIT WITH THE WESTERN PART OF THE BOUNDARY MOVING
NORTH. IN THIS SCENARIO THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NEAR A BOWIE
TO GRAPEVINE TO EMORY LINE BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
DEVELOP. WITH WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A COUPLE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON
JUST IN CASE THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT.
THIS FORECAST PROBLEM SHOULD AT LEAST BE FAIRLY EASY TO FIGURE OUT
TODAY...IF WE END UP WITH SCATTERED STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT
PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...WE HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE AT WASHING OUT OUR BOUNDARY...MAKING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LESS LIKELY. IF THERE IS BRIEF OR NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED
STRONG STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS IN THE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE TODAY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW TODAY WILL PLAY OUT. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST MODELS HAVE THIS BOUNDARY GETTING WASHED OUT BY
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.
FOR TONIGHT...IF WE GET A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS TO PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY LINGERING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH WEAKER THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...IF NOTHING GETS GOING THIS AFTERNOON...OUR ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
CONSISTENTLY SHOW A SQUALL LINE ORGANIZING LATE TONIGHT. IF THE
SQUALL LINE BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH...IT WILL CREATE ITS OWN MINI-
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT COULD PROPAGATE IT SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH TEXAS
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT AS GREAT AS
IT WAS FOR YESTERDAY MORNING...MAINLY BECAUSE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
SOMEWHAT LACKING IN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
ONE OF THE KEY FACTORS THAT HELPS BALANCE COLD-POOL STRENGTH AND
REALLY HELPS LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS BECOME ORGANIZED INTO THEIR
OWN MINI-WEATHER SYSTEM. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR...THESE STORM COMPLEXES STILL BECOME QUITE STRONG WHERE THEY
ORIGINATE...BUT TEND TO LOSE THEIR COLD POOLS AND DISSIPATE WHEN
THEY BEGIN TO PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. BECAUSE OF THE
LACK OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...ONLY WENT WITH 30 POPS FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ASSUMING
THIS PANS OUT...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST IN THE
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ALSO...MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF A STRONGER THAN NORMAL SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
MOVING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST TOMORROW. AT LEAST THAT`S WHAT IT
LOOKS LIKE IN THE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS. AT ANY
RATE...WITH THE CONSISTENCY OF MODELS SHOWING QPF...WITH
CLOUDS...MOVING IN FROM THE GULF COAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WENT
AHEAD AND KEPT SOME HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE WEDNESDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SORT OF MEANDER SOUTH AND JUST BECOME A GENERAL
WEAKNESS ALOFT STUCK IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGES TO OUR WEST AND
EAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
AMPLIFY A BIT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SPREADING SOME FORCING
FOR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FAR WESTERN CWA. AS A RESULT...KEPT
HIGHEST POP CHANCES FOR THURSDAY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
AS THIS IS FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE AND STILL WELL WITHIN
THE MODEL CONSENSUS LOCATION OF THE COL/UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS AREA.
WE WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH LITTLE CAP IN PLACE FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...SO KEPT
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT A
STRONG WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARDS OVER THE
ROCKIES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS
RESULTING IN LAYING THE NORTHERN MEXICO UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTH
TEXAS BY FRIDAY...AND HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT INDICATE THAT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STAY WEST RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT
WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE
GFS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND AS
RESULT WAS RELIED UPON HEAVILY IN THIS FORECAST. THE GFS HAS UPPER
LEVEL RIDING IN PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGING ONLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
DURING THIS PERIOD AS A RESULT. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND GRADUALLY
RAISED TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IF THIS VERIFIES...WE MAY
GET INTO OUR FIRST 100 DEGREE HIGHS HERE BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. THAT`S A LONG WAYS OUT OF COURSE...BUT THE PATTERN
LOOKS HOT AND DRY FOR NOW.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 92 75 93 75 91 / 40 40 40 20 30
WACO, TX 90 73 90 73 92 / 50 50 50 20 30
PARIS, TX 89 72 90 72 89 / 20 20 40 20 40
DENTON, TX 91 73 91 73 91 / 30 30 40 20 30
MCKINNEY, TX 92 74 92 74 91 / 30 30 40 20 40
DALLAS, TX 92 75 92 74 91 / 40 40 40 20 40
TERRELL, TX 93 76 93 76 92 / 40 40 30 20 40
CORSICANA, TX 89 73 90 73 91 / 50 50 50 20 40
TEMPLE, TX 91 72 90 73 90 / 50 50 50 20 30
MINERAL WELLS, TX 89 72 90 71 90 / 50 50 30 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
92/82
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1156 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
LARAMIE RANGE THEN SPREADING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE SEPARATING DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S WEST FROM THE 50S EAST.
LATEST HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS SHOWS MORE INTENSE CONVECTION
FORMING ALONG THE CHEYENNE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM THEN DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHEAST CO. WEAKER TSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WHERE LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. BASED ON SPC/S DAY ONE
OUTLOOK...MENTIONED RISK OF SEVERE FROM THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE
EAST THROUGH CHEYENNE AND KIMBALL. WILL BE MONITORING RADAR TRENDS
CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
SOME CONVECTION CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA INTO
THE NEB PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK IMPULSES MOVE BY IN
WNW UPPER FLOW. SHOULD SEE THIS CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER THIS
MORNING BEFORE EBBING SOMEWHAT. SHOWERS AND TSTRMS SHOULD THEN
RE-FIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MTNS AND PROCEED EASTWARD
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THOUGH UPPER
WINDS A BIT LESS TODAY THUS A BIT LESS SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL END
LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY WEDS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE
PLAINS ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY BETTER RAINS OCCUR. LITTLE CHANGE SEEN
FOR WEDNESDAY AS SFC FRONT REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE MTNS. A
BIT BETTER SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
PLAINS HOWEVER WITH INSTABILITY A BIT HIGHER GIVEN WARMER TEMPS.
CONVECTION MIGHT HANG ON OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WEDS NIGHT.
THURSDAY LOOKING PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF WEDS WITH WARM TEMPS AND
WDLY SCTD AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
STRONG OR SEVERE ONCE AGAIN. SFC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO EDGE EAST AND
SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLE
THURSDAY NIGHT. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
GOING FOR THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
NEW ECMWF RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
WESTERN WYOMING FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OUT WEST. LATEST GFS RUN KEEPS THESE SHOWERS
NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING. ECMWF SEEMS REASONABLE AND USED IT
FOR POPS FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. ECMWF SHOWING
SOME PRETTY HEFTY QPF OUT IN THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
OVER A HALF INCH. IF THIS CONTINUES...WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE TO
RAISE POPS MORE THAN WHAT I HAVE IN THERE RIGHT NOW.
SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...FORCING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM EAST AS WELL. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO HAVE SOME
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN WYOMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
SPILL INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES...SO DO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
GOING UP THAT WAY. DRY PATTERN FOR SUNDAY ON INTO THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED AS SHORTWAVES TRACK ACROSS MONTANA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AROUND 20Z
THIS AFTN ALONG THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. THESE STORMS WILL THEN
MOVE EASTWARD...WITH THE COVERAGE HIGHEST IN AREAS NEAR INTERSTATE
80. INCLUDED VCTS AT MANY OF THE SITES EVEN THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE
OF STORMS WILL STRETCH FROM LAR TO SNY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS OUTSIDE OF GUSTY WINDS FROM THE TSTMS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE AFTER AROUND 06Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
CONCERNS TO REMAIN LOW OVERALL THIS WEEK WITH MANY AREAS SEEING
SOME RAIN AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER. DRIEST AREAS WILL BE OVER FAR
WESTERN DISTRICTS WITH MIN RHS LOWERING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT. WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR HOWEVER.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1117 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
LARAMIE RANGE THEN SPREADING EAST ONTO THE PLAINS FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY ALONG THE LARAMIE
RANGE SEPARATING DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S WEST FROM THE 50S EAST.
LATEST HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY PROGS SHOWS MORE INTENSE CONVECTION
FORMING ALONG THE CHEYENNE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM THEN DRIFTING SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHEAST CO. WEAKER TSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE WHERE LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. BASED ON SPC/S DAY ONE
OUTLOOK...MENTIONED RISK OF SEVERE FROM THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE
EAST THROUGH CHEYENNE AND KIMBALL. WILL BE MONITORING RADAR TRENDS
CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
SOME CONVECTION CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA INTO
THE NEB PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS WEAK IMPULSES MOVE BY IN
WNW UPPER FLOW. SHOULD SEE THIS CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER THIS
MORNING BEFORE EBBING SOMEWHAT. SHOWERS AND TSTRMS SHOULD THEN
RE-FIRE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MTNS AND PROCEED EASTWARD
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THOUGH UPPER
WINDS A BIT LESS TODAY THUS A BIT LESS SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL END
LATER THIS EVENING WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER LATER TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY WEDS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE
PLAINS ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY BETTER RAINS OCCUR. LITTLE CHANGE SEEN
FOR WEDNESDAY AS SFC FRONT REMAINS BANKED UP AGAINST THE MTNS. A
BIT BETTER SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
PLAINS HOWEVER WITH INSTABILITY A BIT HIGHER GIVEN WARMER TEMPS.
CONVECTION MIGHT HANG ON OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WEDS NIGHT.
THURSDAY LOOKING PRETTY MUCH A REPEAT OF WEDS WITH WARM TEMPS AND
WDLY SCTD AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
STRONG OR SEVERE ONCE AGAIN. SFC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO EDGE EAST AND
SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLE
THURSDAY NIGHT. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
GOING FOR THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
NEW ECMWF RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
WESTERN WYOMING FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OUT WEST. LATEST GFS RUN KEEPS THESE SHOWERS
NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING. ECMWF SEEMS REASONABLE AND USED IT
FOR POPS FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. ECMWF SHOWING
SOME PRETTY HEFTY QPF OUT IN THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
OVER A HALF INCH. IF THIS CONTINUES...WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE TO
RAISE POPS MORE THAN WHAT I HAVE IN THERE RIGHT NOW.
SHORTWAVE CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...FORCING THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM EAST AS WELL. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO HAVE SOME
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN WYOMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD
SPILL INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES...SO DO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
GOING UP THAT WAY. DRY PATTERN FOR SUNDAY ON INTO THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED AS SHORTWAVES TRACK ACROSS MONTANA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUES UP NEAR KCDR AND KAIA THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THIS TO WANE LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014
CONCERNS TO REMAIN LOW OVERALL THIS WEEK WITH MANY AREAS SEEING
SOME RAIN AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER. DRIEST AREAS WILL BE OVER FAR
WESTERN DISTRICTS WITH MIN RHS LOWERING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT. WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR HOWEVER.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAMSKI
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RE