Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/19/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
224 PM PDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION AND RESULT IN
DRIER CONDITIONS AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW COLDER SIERRA
VALLEYS WILL DROP NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT WITH A
FEW 30S IN OUTLYING COLDER VALLEYS IN WESTERN NEVADA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO PARTS
OF NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV HAS EXITED WITH SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR ALOFT HELPING TO ERODE CUMULUS FIELD ALONG THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA WHICH WILL TRACK MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NV ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR
A FEW SHOWERS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO HOLD A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS
TOGETHER ON THE FAR WESTERN EDGE AS IT APPROACHES RENO 00Z-03Z.
OTHER MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR DO NOT SHOW THIS EXTENSION.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT WILL INCLUDE IT FOR AREAS JUST NORTH OF RENO
INCLUDING PYRAMID LAKE. BEST FORCING/CONVERGENCE IS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL-NORTHEAST NV WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE BASIN AND RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
DECREASE. THE AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY DRY AND THUS TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT GET AS LOW AS SOME OF THE COLDEST MOS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER,
COLDER SIERRA VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A LIGHT FREEZE WITH EVEN
SOME OF THE OUTLYING COLDER WESTERN NV VALLEYS DROPPING INTO THE
30S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF YOUR LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 40
DEGREES, YOU MAY WANT TO CONSIDER TAKING SOME GENERAL PRECAUTIONS
TO PROTECT SENSITIVE PLANTS.
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY FOR A FAST
WARMUP. TEMPERATURES IN COLDER SIERRA VALLEYS WILL NOT BE AS COLD
THURSDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH THEY COULD STILL GET DOWN TO NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR ONE MORE NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN
JUST SHY OF NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY BUT REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY WITH 70S SIERRA VALLEYS AND 80S WESTERN NV. HOHMANN
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE REGION WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED BETWEEN A NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROUGH AND ROCKIES/NORTHERN
PLAINS RIDGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH A FEW MINOR
DISTURBANCES PERIODICALLY MOVING OVERHEAD.
THE GFS REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THE FRIDAY DISTURBANCE ALTHOUGH
EVEN IT IS SHIFTING NORTH WITH THE BEST LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
AND FORCING OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, NORTHWESTERN NEVADA
AND OREGON. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF/GEM LOOK VERY WEAK AND FLAT WITH
FRIDAY`S DISTURBANCE WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
OTHER THING OF SOME CONCERN FRIDAY WILL BE WINDS FOR NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA
(SIERRA FRONT). GRADIENTS INCREASE WITH THE MOS HIGH TEMPERATURE
BETWEEN THE SIERRA (TRUCKEE) AND WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA (LOVELOCK)
IMPLYING INCREASED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE FOR
THE SIERRA FRONT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA
WILL REMAIN IN FLAT SOUTHWEST-WEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING THE
TYPICAL DAILY ZEPHYR BREEZES FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA AND OUT INTO
WESTERN NEVADA. DEPENDING ON THE SMALL-SCALE, LOW CONFIDENCE
DETAILS OF ANY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING OVERHEAD THE ZEPHYR
MAY BE PERIODICALLY ENHANCED WITH AN INCREASED FIRE CONCERN.
SNYDER
&&
.AVIATION...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE, CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR KAAT, IS MOVING AROUND
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH AND
EAST OF KRNO, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST AND NORTH OF A
GERLACH TO PYRAMID LAKE TO KNFL LINE THROUGH SUNSET. BRIEF HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURATION, SMALL HAIL (LESS THAN HALF-INCH) AND WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 30 KTS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
LATE TONIGHT, THE MARTIS VALLEY NEAR KTRK COULD SEE PATCHY FOG.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS (LESS THAN 8 KTS)
WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT AND FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
CALIFORNIA. SNYDER
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
413 AM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
A RATHER STG UPPER LVL STORM SYSTEM FOR MID JUNE WILL MOVE INTO THE
NRN ROCKIES BY TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF
SOME HIGH CLOUDS IT WILL REMAIN DRY THIS AFTN AND EVENING OVER THE
CWA. AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS CHANGE LITTLE FM MON SO HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NERN
CO. FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGH IN THE SRN FOOTHILLS OVER SWRN
JEFFERSON/WRN DOUGLAS WHERE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTN.
BY LATE TONIGHT A COOL FNT WILL MOVE TO THE WY-CO BORDER WHICH MAY
LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN ZN 31 TOWARDS SUNRISE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ENERGY ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA WILL PRODUCE A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. THE STRENGTH OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW THE MOISTURE MAKING IT BACK TO
DENVER...BUT MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. EACH OF THE MODELS
AGREE ON GENERATING MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ONE OTHER
FEATURE THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS...WILL BE THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SOUTHERLY JET
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
FORCING FOR ASCENT...HELPING THE AIRMASS TO DE-STABILIZE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FOR THE TIME BEING...SPC DOES NOT
HAVE SEVERE WEATHER MENTIONED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS IS
PROBABLY DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO FEED INTO
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS. OUR FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND NOT
MENTION ANY SEVERE WEATHER FOR NOW.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING OUT OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH COOLER WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL...BUT NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE STATE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY AGAIN EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OVER
LINCOLN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IF ENOUGH MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ADVECTS INTO THAT PART OF THE STATE. THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...BUT
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT GULF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE FORECAST. ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT AND THEN CONTINUING
UPSLOPE EASTERLIES WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE TO PRODUCE A SOGGY FEW DAYS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
VFR THRU TONIGHT. AS FOR WINDS ANOTHER TRICKY FCST DUE TO POSITION
OF A SFC LOW. LATEST RAP AND HRRR SHOW MORE OF A SE COMPONENT THRU
THE EARLY AFTN WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE SW AROUND 21Z WHICH
CONTINUES THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS
SSW HOWEVER A WEAK COOL FNT MAY AFFECT THE AIRPORT AROUND 12Z WITH
WINDS BECOMING ENE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A
WRMFNT BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
401 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
.WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY TOMORROW WITH A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. LESS
HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
AS OF 401 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS SITUATED OVER LAKE
HURON. A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM IS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...WITH A COLD TRAILING ACROSS MICHIGAN AND INTO THE
MIDWEST. A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED EASTWARD FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO...AND THIS FRONT...AIDED BY A LAKE
BREEZE OFF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...HAS DEVELOPED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY.
ALTHOUGH OUR REGION HAS BEEN RAIN FREE AND MAINLY SUNNY SO FAR
TODAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS ACTIVITY MOVE
TOWARDS OUR AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S /AND EVEN A
FEW LOW 90S IN SPOTS/ AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...IT IS
FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVER OUR CWA.
ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL STORMS OVER CENTRAL NY MAY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS
THEY APPROACH OUR WESTERN AREAS...WE WILL BE AT RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE T-STORMS LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS UPSTATE NY. WE MAY LOSE SOME OF
THE SFC BASED INSTABILITY CURRENTLY IN PLACE...AS A NOCTURNAL
INVERSION BEGINS TO DEVELOP WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
STILL...WE MAY BE AT RISK FOR SEVERE T-STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH RES MODELS /SUCH AS OUR LOCAL WRF AND
THE 3KM HRRR AND 4KM NAM/ ALL SHOW AN ORGANIZED LINE SUCH AS A
SQUALL LINE OR QLCS MOVING E-SE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SPC CONTINUES A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH A 30% CONTOUR FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
THE MAIN TIMING WOULD HAVE ACTIVITY REACHING OUR NW ZONES AROUND
00Z-02Z AND EXITING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION
BETWEEN 06Z-08Z. IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING ON ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD CONCERNS. THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO MOVE
FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND RAIN SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS /AT MOST/
AT ANY ONE LOCATION.
IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY AND WARM OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING QUITE HIGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTION OF OUR
CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...AND CROSSING THE FAR
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE MAY BE
A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AS WELL...AS A VORT MAX SWINGING AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC ALLOWS FOR SOME LIFT. IT WON/T BE QUITE AS
WARM ON WEDNESDAY AS IT IS ON TUESDAY...WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60...AS THE MOIST AIR WON/T BE COMPLETELY PUSHED
OUT JUST YET.
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SETTLE FURTHER SOUTH...A MUCH MORE
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA BUILDS INTO UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A LONG STRETCH FOR DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER FOR WED
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE MIN TEMPS WON/T BE TOO COOL JUST YET
FOR WED NIGHT /MID 50S TO LOW 60S/...MANY AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN
THE 40S TO LOW 50S ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THURSDAY...AND EVEN
COOLER FOR FRIDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAIR AND DRY AT THE START AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER JAMES/HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
POPS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 15 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS DRIER SOLUTIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO AROUND 30 TO 35
PERCENT DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT 50 TO 60.
LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR TSTMS DURING THAT PERIOD. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS ON
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM
CANADA. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE
MVFR/IFR FLYING CONDITIONS ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LATER FOG/LOW STRATUS TONIGHT.
THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AND SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INITIALLY PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 4-8 KNOTS.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BE A LINE/CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. HAVE PLACED TEMPO GROUPS AT
KGFL AND KALB FROM 00Z TO 03Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...WITH THE CONVECTION CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
ABOUT 06Z. DID NOT PLACE TEMPO GROUPS AT KPOU AND KPSF AS ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD IMPACT THESE TAF SITES AFTER 03Z.
BEHIND THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE A
TRAILING REGION OF LIGHT RAIN AS WELL AND HAVE KEPT -SHRA AND VCSH
IN THE TAFS FROM 06Z TO 12Z.
MVFR/IFR FOG/LOW STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEHIND THE
CONVECTION AS WELL...WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. THE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE OF IFR FOG IS AT KGFL AND KPSF...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT IFR CONDITIONS AT KALB AS WELL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS
AND IF WINDS CAN SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT GENERALLY AROUND 5 KNOTS.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO THE TAF SITES TOWARDS DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE MVFR CEILINGS MAY HANG ON UNTIL THE
MID-MORNING HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD SEE BROKEN
CUMULUS AROUND 4-6 KFT WITH A NORTHWEST WIND BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO
SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A WETTING RAINFALL TONIGHT AS A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN A FEW SPOTS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON WED AFTN WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT ON WED NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS. WITH SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER IN PLACE...RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTN WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THERE MAY
BE AN INITIAL LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A
PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BEHIND IT. AT ONE
LOCATION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW
HOURS AT THE MOST. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...LOCALIZED ISSUES...SUCH AS IN URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS RELATIVELY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. A WARM FRONT MAY RETURN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
TOMORROW WITH A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. LESS HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 144 PM EDT...VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. SKIES ARE GENERALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY...WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL CU /MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/
AND SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS.
A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
IS PRODUCING SEVERAL AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS. ONE AREA IS CURRENTLY
OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY...WITH MORE BEHIND IT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN. THE 3KM HRRR AND OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF KEEP OUR AREA DRY
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY START TO
INCREASE BY LATE TODAY.
A FEW SPOTS MAY COME CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES...OTHERWISE HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
BOTH GLOBAL AND HIRES MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 07Z. SFC LOW
PRESSURE LOOKS TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND A SFC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR AREA...WITH A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS UPSTATE NY. WHILE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET FOR MOST AREAS
TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW STRONG WILL CONVECTION BE.
THERE IS DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS SUGGESTING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH JUST HOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
BE. WITH A NOCTURNAL INVERSION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...IT TAKE
STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AT THE
SURFACE. OUR LOCAL WRF DOES SHOW THUNDERSTORMS FORMING INTO A
LINE...SO IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A SQUALL LINE/QLCS MAY BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. SPC HAS OUR REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
TSTMS...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS. ANY CONVECTION LOOKS
TO TRACK FROM THE W-NW TOWARDS THE E-SE ACROSS OUR AREA. IT WILL
REMAIN MUGGY AND WARM OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXPECTED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AND
TRACKING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. IT NOW APPEARS
THAT WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHC OF A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR FAR SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA...AND ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SHOWER ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS DURING THE DAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SWINGS
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER QUEBEC. IT WILL STILL BE
FAIRLY HUMID...AS THE MOIST AIR WON/T BE COMPLETELY PUSHED OUT THE
REGION JUST YET. TEMPS LOOK MAINLY IN THE 80S...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE
AS WARM AS TUESDAY/S HIGHS.
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH FAIR
WEATHER BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO START OUT FAIR AND DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM NEAR JAMES BAY. AN
H500 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST.
THE CLOSED COMPACT H500 CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH WILL BE
NEAR NRN MAINE AND THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE TO CLOSE THIS WEEK. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED BY SUNDAY...AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL UPSTREAM OF THE NORTHEAST. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE APPROACHING...
AS WELL AS ITS WARM FRONT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY FOR AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE WITH THE RATHER
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
H850 TEMPS OF +10C TO +13C WITH DECENT MIXING IN THE NW FLOW REGIME
SHOULD YIELD SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SUMMER WITH HIGHS
IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M40S
TO L50S. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE RIDGING DOWN INTO THE REGION...BUT
SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW THAT COULD INCREASE CLOUDS LATE...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH A THREAT OF ISOLD SHOWERS
ON SATURDAY...AS A SFC WAVE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE
DELMARVA CORRIDOR. THE GFS INDICATES LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY...AND
THE ECMWF HINTS AT SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE TRI
CITIES. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS. LOWS
WILL BE COOL IN THE CANADIAN AIR MASS WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND HILLS...AND M40S TO AROUND 50F OVER THE
MTNS. TEMPS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A SHADE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH A FEW
U60S OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC WAVE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS WILL STILL BE IN THE 50S. LOW PRESSURE REACHES THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION AND ITS WARM FRONT STARTS TO MOVE N/NE
TOWARDS PA AND NJ. THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND THE WAVE WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM. THE MUCAPE
VALUES WERE STILL LOW WITH LESS THAN 250 J/KG OVER THE FCST AREA.
H850 TEMPS IN THE +10C TO +13C RANGE WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPS A SHADE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF JUNE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO M70S...EXCEPT
FOR SOME 60S OVER THE MTNS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT WITH THE SFC WAVE
AND WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE LATE IN THE EXTENDED WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO
CREEP UP WITH THE POOLING OF HIGHER DEWPTS INTO THE U50S TO 60S.
MUCAPES RISE TO 500-1500+ J/KG LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SHOWALTER VALUES DIP TO 0C TO -3C INDICATIVE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. PWATS INCREASE TO 1-1.50 INCHES. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHC POPS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
50S TO L60S...AND HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH U60S TO M70S OVER THE FCST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE
MVFR/IFR FLYING CONDITIONS ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LATER FOG/LOW STRATUS TONIGHT.
THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AND SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INITIALLY PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 4-8 KNOTS.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BE A LINE/CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. HAVE PLACED TEMPO GROUPS AT
KGFL AND KALB FROM 00Z TO 03Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...WITH THE CONVECTION CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
ABOUT 06Z. DID NOT PLACE TEMPO GROUPS AT KPOU AND KPSF AS ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD IMPACT THESE TAF SITES AFTER 03Z.
BEHIND THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE A
TRAILING REGION OF LIGHT RAIN AS WELL AND HAVE KEPT -SHRA AND VCSH
IN THE TAFS FROM 06Z TO 12Z.
MVFR/IFR FOG/LOW STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEHIND THE
CONVECTION AS WELL...WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. THE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE OF IFR FOG IS AT KGFL AND KPSF...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT IFR CONDITIONS AT KALB AS WELL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS
AND IF WINDS CAN SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT GENERALLY AROUND 5 KNOTS.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO THE TAF SITES TOWARDS DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE MVFR CEILINGS MAY HANG ON UNTIL THE
MID-MORNING HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD SEE BROKEN
CUMULUS AROUND 4-6 KFT WITH A NORTHWEST WIND BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TODAY. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA...ALONG
WITH CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
TODAY...INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND DROP TO 40 TO50
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 ,PH TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
SOME MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE QUESTIONS STILL REMAINING ON JUST HOW ORGANIZED
THE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM.
ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...LOCALIZED ISSUES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS RELATIVELY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1005 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP ACRS S FL LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS EVNG
PRODUCED HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS N MARTIN/S ST. LUCIE COUNTIES...RADAR
ESTIMATED PRECIP BTWN 1.5" AND 3.0" BTWN SR70 AND SR 75. LATEST
RADAR TREND SHOWS MUCH OF THIS HAS DISSIPATED...EXCEPT FOR LINGERING
LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE TREASURE COAST S OF VERO BEACH.
EVENING RAOBS SHOW A CLEAR MOISTURE GRADIENT ACRS THE FL
PENINSULA...INCREASING FROM 1.5" AT KJAX...TO 1.9" AT KTBW...TO 2.0"
AT KMFL. FURTHERMORE...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH A WELL ORGANIZED INVERTED TROF
DEFORMING ITS BASE OVER S FL. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP AND STEADY
SE BREEZE ACRS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY KEEPING
THE LCL AIRMASS DESTABILIZED.
STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE SE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION ACRS THE SRN CWA AS RUC ALSO SHOWS H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES
AOA 90PCT OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS. PRECIP ALREADY IN THE FCST FOR THE
COASTAL REGIONS...AS WELL AS ERN TWO THIRDS OF OKEECHOBEE COUNTY.
WILL UPDATE TO REFRESH WORDING AND REMOVE PRECIP FOR INTERIOR
COUNTIES FROM OSCEOLA COUNTY NWD...NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 19/13Z...OCNL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -RA E OF KMLB-KOBE...VFR
ELSEWHERE WITH SFC WNDS BCMG LGT/VRBL. BTWN 19/13Z-19/15Z...SFC WNDS
BCMG E-SE 5-10KTS. AFT 19/15Z...S OF KTIX-KISM NMRS MVFR SHRAS/IFR
TSRAS...N OF KTIX-KISM SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS.
&&
.MARINE...NO SIG CHGS. RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE E/SE BREEZE WITH SEAS ARND 2FT...UP
TO 3FT IN THE GULF STREAM. THE E/SE DIRECTION WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE
SRN LEG UNDER THE SHADOW OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...RESULTING IN
DOMINANT WAVE PDS AOB 4SEC.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECAST/AVIATION...BRAGAW
RADAR/IMPACT WX.....LASCODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
221 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS
BROUGHT THE INSTABILITY EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING CAUSED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MOVED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. AS IT DID, IT CAUSED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS FORMED A DONUT
HOLE SHAPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT HAS KEPT MOST OF THE SHOWERS OUT
OF THE MIAMI DADE AREA. LOOKING AT CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY, THE
CONVECTION OVER THE ATLANTIC IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AND THE
LINE OVER THE GULF SIDE IS BEGINNING TO BE ENHANCED. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND CONDITIONS, EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BE THE RULE TODAY, WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING, AND THOSE SHOULD BE ON
THE GULF SIDE. THIS PATTERN IS SHOWN FAIRLY WELL BY THE HRRR 15Z
RUN. SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE MODELS SOLUTION FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHER POPS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND STILL
MAINTAINING LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST, EXCEPT FOR
PALM BEACH, WHERE HIGH END CHANCE AS SHOWERS ARE STILL IN THAT
AREA.
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HANGS AROUND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A
SURFACE HIGH, TO THE NORTHEAST, WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN THIS WEEK
AND CAUSE THE SFC WINDS TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN SOUTHERLY AND
EASTERLY. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IN THE INTERIOR
AND GULF COAST THIS WEEK, WITH SOME NOCTURNAL AND EARLY TO MID
MORNING ACTIVITY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL START TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THIS
WEEKEND...AS A THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
UNTIED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND FOCUSING THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING
FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOCUSING THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE WEST. THIS HAS CAUSED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THE
CIRCULATION OF THE TROUGH. DUE TO THIS LOCATION OF THE TROUGH, THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A DIMINISHING THREAT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WATERS BUT CONFIDENT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE
FORECAST AFT 00Z AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WIND WILL ALSO BE RATHER
ERRATIC DUE TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION BUT A GENERAL EAST DIRECTION
IS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. A SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST
WILL KEEP AN EAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATER FOR THE
TIME BEING. SEA SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH THE GULF SEEING SEA OF 1 TO 2 FEET.
CONDITIONS UNDER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
ROUGH AT TIMES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 84 75 84 / 40 60 30 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 84 76 84 / 40 60 30 50
MIAMI 76 85 76 85 / 40 60 30 50
NAPLES 73 86 73 86 / 30 60 50 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING OVER TOP A BROAD EXPANSE OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
LOWER MS / TN VALLEYS. THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CIRCULATES AROUND A
WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BEFORE RIDING UP INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. IMPULSES
EJECTING OUT FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WITHIN THIS FLOW HAVE BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY THIS PAST EVENING AND CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING.
CLOSER TO HOME WE FIND OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDING BETWEEN THE UPPER
RIDGE DESCRIBED ABOVE TO OUR NORTHWEST...AND A WEAK LOW (ALMOST TUTT
FEATURE) RETROGRADING TOWARD THE REGION FROM OFF THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR
(MAINLY ABOVE 15KFT) OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST THAT IS SHOWN BY
MODEL CONSENSUS TO PIVOT DOWN OVER THE REGION TODAY WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST
RIDGES BACK TO THE WEST WITH AN AXIS TO THE NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING A SYNOPTIC EAST TO ESE FLOW ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA. REGIONAL RADARS ARE NOW GENERALLY QUIET.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE
SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN FOR LATER TODAY. WE HAVE A
BIT OF A DILEMMA HERE...AS THE LOW LEVEL 1000-700MB FLOW IS FAVORED
FOR FOCUS/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE...AND HENCE
BOTH ENHANCED SPATIAL AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG
THE I-75 CORRIDOR. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVING
ALOFT IS NOT OVERLY CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION. THIS AIRMASS
IS NOT COMPLETELY HOSTILE TO DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COLUMNS...BUT AT
THE SAME TIME WILL NOT GIVE THEM ANY HELP. SO...THE QUESTION
IS...WHICH FACTOR WINS OUT...AND BY HOW MUCH? HERE IS HOW THIS
FORECASTER SEES IT...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESIDE WITHIN A DEEP LAYER NORTHEAST FLOW
PATTERN ABOVE THE SURFACE BETWEEN A UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH/NW...AND A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW/TUTT FEATURE TO OUR EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A SWATH OF DRIER AIR ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND DOWN WITHIN THE NE FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. THE BOTTOM LAYER OF THIS SURGE (700-600MB) OF DRIER AIR
CONTAINS THETAE VALUES BETWEEN 316-320K THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST
VALUES ARE UP OVER THE NATURE COAST WITH THE HIGHEST ("MOST"
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION) DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS. THESE VALUES ARE
CERTAINLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AND WOULD LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE UNDER A NON-EASTERLY
FLOW REGIME. IN THIS CASE HOWEVER...WHILE DO THINK THE OVERALL
COVERAGE WILL BE HELD DOWN...THE DEGREE OF FORECAST CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COASTALLY PINNED SEA-BREEZE SHOWN BY MOST RELIABLE
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME SOME OF THE NEGATIVE
EFFECTS ALOFT.
THEREFORE WILL SHOW A RAIN CHANCE FORECAST RANGING FROM 30% FOR THE
NORTHERN NATURE COAST...DOWN TO 40-50% THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY
VICINITY...AND THEN 55-65% FURTHER SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO
TAPER OFF TOWARD 30% FURTHER INLAND (EASTERN POLK/HIGHLANDS
COUNTIES) FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR...AWAY FROM THE BEST LOW LEVEL
FOCUS. NOW FOR TIMING. THIS PATTERN FROM A CLIMO STAND POINT SUGGEST
GENERAL STORM INITIATION BEGINS FIRST DURING THE EARLY/MIDDLE
AFTERNOON DOWN TOWARD SOUTHERN/SW FLORIDA...WHERE THE PENINSULA IS
THINNEST AND THE INTERACTION OF THE TWO SEA-BREEZES WILL OCCUR
FIRST. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL THEN MIGRATE NORTHWARD...WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY VICINITY AND NORTHWARD
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. DO FEEL WE HAVE A
LOCALLY MARGINAL SEVERE WIND THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THETAE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NEAR SURFACE
LAYER AND THOSE MINIMUM 316-320K VALUE ALOFT LIE IN THE RANGE OF
19-22K BASED ON THE GFS. DIFFERENCE VALUES AROUND AND OVER 20K HAVE
BEEN FOUND TO BE FAVORED FOR THE GENERATION OF WET MICROBURSTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS DUE TO ENTRAINMENT OF
DRIER AIR INTO THE CONVECTIVE COLUMN WHICH CAN CAUSE RAPID STORM
COLLAPSE THROUGH EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES AND UPDRAFT WEAKENING.
STORM MOTION WILL BE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD OR WSW TOWARD...AND OFF
THE COAST. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN "WEATHER AWARE" LATE TODAY...AND
KEEP AN EYE TOWARD THE EASTERN SKY FOR DEVELOPING STORMS. THIS
FORECAST PATTERN HAS PROVEN DANGEROUS IN THE PAST AS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM QUICKLY MIGRATE OFFSHORE AND CUT OFF ESCAPE ROUTES BACK
TO SHORE.
OVERNIGHT...ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER OUR LAND ZONES BY
LATE EVENING AND RESULT IN A GENERALLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE NIGHT.
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT CONVECTION LINGER OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT THE SYNOPTIC EASTERLY FLOW WILL TAKE OVER QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET AND KEEP THIS ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE COAST. ENJOY YOUR
TUESDAY AND LOOK OUT FOR THOSE LATE DAY STORMS.
&&
.MID TERM (WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY)...
FOR WED AN UPPER RIDGE RESIDES ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SE U.S.
WHILE AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES WEST ACROSS FL. ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG AND NORTH OF LATITUDE 30 REACHES WEST ALONG THE
GULF COAST. DEEP MOISTURE WITH MODEL PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.8-2.0 INCH
RANGE...COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH (AROUND -9 AT 500
MB)...AND EAST TO ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW (RELAXED ENOUGH TO ALLOW AN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE) WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WITH
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH
WILL HAVE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE.
BY THU THE UPPER TROUGH HAS SLID OUT OVER THE EAST GULF...WITH SOME
SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT ALTHOUGH PWAT VALUES REMAIN SIMILAR TO WED. THE
SURFACE RIDGE SAGS TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF LATITUDE 30 WITH A MORE SE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BUT AGAIN ALLOWING A SEA BREEZE TO SET UP. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL AGAIN FORM WITH THE HIGHER ODDS IN THE
SOUTH.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS JUST WEST OF THE AREA FRI THEN WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS WEST AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST SAT-MON. THE SURFACE
RIDGES CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH...REACHING THE STRAITS
BETWEEN THE KEYS AND CUBA BY LATE MON.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE WEAK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC
SUPPRESSION ALTHOUGH IT MAY PROVIDE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
MAX TEMPERATURES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE MOIST WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS IT
BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND WESTERLY (AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH)
WITH THE BEST STORM COVERAGE IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOONS AND
INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. IT IS
THE WARM SEASON...SO A SCATTERING OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STORMS WILL LIKELY
INITIATE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON DOWN TOWARD KFMY/KRSW AND THEN DEVELOP
NORTHWARD THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE OFFSHORE AFTER 01-02Z.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN IN POSITION TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS POSITION
WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON AND TURN WINDS LOCALLY ONSHORE...HOWEVER THE ONSHORE FLOW
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY STRONG. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ALLOWING
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG THE COAST
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD
TOWARD...AND OFF THE COAST. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN "WEATHER AWARE"
LATE TODAY...AND KEEP AN EYE TOWARD THE EASTERN SKY FOR DEVELOPING
STORMS. THIS FORECAST PATTERN HAS PROVEN DANGEROUS IN THE PAST AS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM QUICKLY MIGRATE OFFSHORE AND CUT OFF ESCAPE
ROUTES BACK TO SHORE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CANCERS ARE ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS WHILE DISPERSION INDICES REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
ALSO...NO SIGNIFICANT OCCURRENCES OF FOG ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 90 73 86 75 / 50 30 40 20
FMY 91 72 87 73 / 60 20 50 20
GIF 91 71 85 72 / 30 10 50 30
SRQ 90 71 87 74 / 50 40 40 20
BKV 92 67 86 70 / 40 20 40 20
SPG 91 76 85 77 / 50 40 40 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1027 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH WELL INLAND AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH SHOULD ALSO EXTEND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES PLUS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUGHT IN THE
RIDGE ALONG WITH STRONG HEATING COULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...EXPECT LITTLE COVERAGE BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AND
GENERAL UPPER RIDGING. THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVE POPS OF 10 PERCENT
OR LESS. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYS JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE NEAR THE TIME
OF MAXIMUM HEATING. THE 11Z HRRR DISPLAYS SCATTERED COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON... MAINLY IN THE WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY
ALONG THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH.
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING PLUS WET-BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 10300 FEET SUPPORTS POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL WITH ANY STORM THAT FORMS.
THE WARMER MET MOS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN VERIFYING BETTER RECENTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. STRONG
HEATING MAY HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT LITTLE COVERAGE
BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AND THE UPPER RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE POPS 10 PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE BUT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL BECAUSE OF THE RECENT COOL BIAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINNING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS A POP AROUND 10 PERCENT
THURSDAY...AND 30 PERCENT DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE A POP AROUND 10 PERCENT
THURSDAY...AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
MOST OF MOS HAS TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY DURING THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. PATCHY MORNING IFR/MVFR FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AROUND SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT AGS/OGB.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
623 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE 900 AM.
THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH WELL INLAND AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH SHOULD ALSO EXTEND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES
PLUS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUGHT IN THE RIDGE ALONG
WITH STRONG HEATING COULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...EXPECT
LITTLE COVERAGE BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPPER
RIDGING. THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVE POPS OF 10 PERCENT OR LESS. THE
SPC WRF DISPLAYS JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE NEAR THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. THE 06Z HRRR DISPLAYS SCATTERED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY IN THE WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY ALONG THE LEE-
SIDE TROUGH. WE FORECASTED POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT...A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE GFS AND NAM MOS.
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING PLUS WET-
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 10300 FEET SUPPORTS POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND
AND HAIL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE WARMER MET MOS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN VERIFYING BETTER RECENTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. STRONG
HEATING MAY HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT LITTLE COVERAGE
BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AND THE UPPER RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE POPS 10 PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE BUT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL BECAUSE OF THE RECENT COOL BIAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINNING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS A POP AROUND 10 PERCENT
THURSDAY...AND 30 PERCENT DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE A POP AROUND 10 PERCENT
THURSDAY...AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
MOST OF MOS HAS TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY DURING THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE
MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS BY LATE MORNING.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
516 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS NOCTURNAL COOLING MAY SUPPORT FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT LESS FOG THAN YESTERDAY MORNING BECAUSE THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY SO THERE SHOULD BE LESS NET RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE SREF GUIDANCE FOG PROBABILITIES ARE VERY LOW. WE HAVE
JUST INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH WELL INLAND AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH SHOULD ALSO EXTEND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES
PLUS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUGHT IN THE RIDGE ALONG
WITH STRONG HEATING COULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...EXPECT
LITTLE COVERAGE BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPPER
RIDGING. THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVE POPS OF 10 PERCENT OR LESS. THE
SPC WRF DISPLAYS JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE NEAR THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. THE 06Z HRRR DISPLAYS SCATTERED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY IN THE WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY ALONG THE LEE-
SIDE TROUGH. WE FORECASTED POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT...A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE GFS AND NAM MOS.
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING PLUS WET-
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 10300 FEET SUPPORTS POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND
AND HAIL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE WARMER MET MOS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN VERIFYING BETTER RECENTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. STRONG
HEATING MAY HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT LITTLE COVERAGE
BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AND THE UPPER RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE POPS 10 PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE BUT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL BECAUSE OF THE RECENT COOL BIAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINNING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS A POP AROUND 10 PERCENT
THURSDAY...AND 30 PERCENT DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE A POP AROUND 10 PERCENT
THURSDAY...AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
MOST OF MOS HAS TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY DURING THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE
MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS BY LATE MORNING.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
509 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS NOCTURNAL COOLING MAY SUPPORT FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT LESS FOG THAN YESTERDAY MORNING BECAUSE THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY SO THERE SHOULD BE LESS NET RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE SREF GUIDANCE FOG PROBABILITIES ARE VERY LOW. WE HAVE
JUST INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH WELL INLAND AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH SHOULD ALSO EXTEND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES
PLUS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUGHT IN THE RIDGE ALONG
WITH STRONG HEATING COULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...EXPECT
LITTLE COVERAGE BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPPER
RIDGING. THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVE POPS OF 10 PERCENT OR LESS. THE
SPC WRF DISPLAYS JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE NEAR THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. THE 06Z HRRR DISPLAYS SCATTERED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY IN THE WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY ALONG THE LEE-
SIDE TROUGH. WE FORECASTED POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT...A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE GFS AND NAM MOS.
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING PLUS WET-
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 10300 FEET SUPPORTS POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND
AND HAIL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE WARMER MET MOS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN VERIFYING BETTER RECENTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. STRONG
HEATING MAY HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT LITTLE COVERAGE
BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AND THE UPPER RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE POPS 10 PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE BUT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL BECAUSE OF THE RECENT COOL BIAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINNING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS A POP AROUND 10 PERCENT
THURSDAY...AND 30 PERCENT DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE A POP AROUND 10 PERCENT
THURSDAY...AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
MOST OF MOS HAS TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY DURING THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE
IFR FOG AT AGS/OGB. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1238 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1030 PM CDT
MAIN CHANGES FOR A LATE EVENING FORECAST UPDATE HAVE FOCUSED ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER IOWA. A BOW ECHO
ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV IS SAGGING SEWD THROUGH ERN IOWA AS THE MCV
QUICKLY TRACKS EAST THROUGH SRN WISCONSIN. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT
WITH THE BOW ECHO WILL STILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. HAVE TIMED THE BOW TO REACH THE RFD AREA BY AROUND 11 PM
AND ALL SIGNS INDICATE THAT THE BOW WILL PLOW THROUGH NWRN/NCNTRL
IL...THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF IT WILL MAINTAIN
INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES THE CHICAGO METRO AREA AS THE SYSTEM
HAS ALREADY BEEN GOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TAKING ON AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTATION...WHICH IS TRAILING WEST FROM THE MAIN BOW.
THIS AREA IS BEING FED BY WARM MOIST AIR ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET. THE 00Z ILX SOUNDING INDICATED IN EXCESS OF 1.5
INCH PWAT. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THIS AREA SLOWLY BUILDING
SWD AS THE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EWD. THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND AREAL AVERAGE
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
KREIN
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
315 PM CDT
THERE IS A POTPOURRI OF FORECAST CHALLENGES AND ALL OF THEM TIED TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. LIKE A DOMINO EFFECT
MUCH HAS TO DO WITH THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION TONIGHT...AS THAT
WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...AND WHETHER RESULTANT
BOUNDARIES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LINGER...WHICH WILL HAVE
FURTHER EFFECTS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
A SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA WITH A WIDESPREAD
DOME OF HEAT AND HIGH DEW POINT AIR ACROSS THE PLAINS...OHIO
VALLEY...AND SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW IS ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CORRIDOR OF THIS BALMY AIR MASS WHICH
INCLUDES OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS AFTERNOON AN ELONGATED UPPER/MID
LEVEL JET MAX IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS OVERRIDING THE STRONG RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
CENTRAL IL. CORRELATING WITH THIS IS A TIGHTENING INSTABILITY
GRADIENT WHICH IS LIFTING NORTHWARD. JUST NORTH OF THIS GRADIENT
IS THE FAVORED CONCEPTUAL MODEL TRACK OF AN OVERNIGHT STORM
COMPLEX WHICH ARE FAVORED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN
IA THIS EVE.
THIS EVENING...
A CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR THE MO/IA/IL BORDERING INTERSECTION AS OF
300 PM IS ON THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND MAY BE
HELPED BY A MINOR SHORT WAVE/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FESTER THEIR WAY NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THIS EVE. ITS A BIT TOUGH TO TELL WHAT COVERAGE WILL BE...BUT
THIS SYNOPTIC WARM MOIST ADVECTION MAY BECOME BOOSTED ON THE
MESOSCALE ON THE FORWARD FLANK OF WHAT MCS IS EVOLVING. SO COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED EVE DEVELOPMENT NAMELY ACROSS EASTERN IA INTO
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL IL. AS SEEN ON RADAR TRENDS OF THESE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...THE STRONG INSTABILITY OF 2000-3000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE THAT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD CAN LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM THREAT.
OVERNIGHT...
THE STRONG UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE...MAYBE EVEN
MULTIPLE WAVES PER WATER VAPOR...WILL YIELD A LIKELY MCS ACROSS
OR NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER GIVEN MCS PARAMETERS IN PLACE. WITH THE
STRONG MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FEED VEERING AHEAD OF IT AND WITH
ITS OWN COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...THERE SHOULD BE A MORE RAPID
PROGRESSION THROUGH LATER EVE INTO OVERNIGHT. WHICH WAY THIS
PROGRESSES HAS BEEN SOMETHING THAT MODELS HAVE GRADUALLY STARTED
TO TREND MORE SOUTH WHICH AGREES WITH EARLIER THINKING AND MAKES
SENSE WITH 1. THE NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST SLOPING INSTABILITY
GRADIENT 2. THIS GRADIENT KEEPING THAT ORIENTATION ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL IL DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION AND 3. THE 850-300MB
THICKNESSES/FLOW REMAINING EAST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED. BECAUSE OF
THIS HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH
LIKELIES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 2 AM. WHETHER THE MCS SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL DIMINISHES AS IT NEARS THE WI/IL BORDER...THERE STILL
WILL LIKELY BE SOME BACKBUILDING ON ITS SOUTHERN END TOWARD THE
INSTABILITY AND GIVEN ANGLE OF BACKWARD PROGRESSING CORFIDI
VECTORS. NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THIS WITH
CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE...THAT COULD BRING MORE OF
A HEAVY RAIN THREAT...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. SO AS THE SPC
OUTLOOK SHOWS...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS HIGHEST TO OUR
NORTHWEST BUT DOES SLOPE INTO OUR AREA...WITH WINDS BEING THE
GREATEST...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD POOL IS CONTINUING TO DRIVE THE
SYSTEM.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ONLY LOWER-MID 70S WITH DEW
POINTS ASCENDING INTO THE LOWER 70S AREAWIDE.
TUESDAY...
THE MORNING SHOULD FIND AT LEAST CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND/OR WARM-AIR
ADVECTION CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF IF NOT MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE COULD BE DIMINISHING STORMS AS WELL. ALL OF
THIS WOULD LEAD TO A SLOW START ON THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB...BUT
RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED WITH SCATTERING AND MIXING OF VERY WARM
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 20C AND 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 26C. BIAS-
CORRECTED MODEL FORECASTS...WHICH HAVE PERFORMED WELL LATELY AND
TEND TO IN WARMER PATTERNS...ARE SHOWING LOWER TO MID 90S
AREAWIDE. BANKING ON CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE MORNING STORMS IN THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA HAVE UNDERCUT THOSE VALUES THOUGH...BUT
KEEP THE 90S SOUTH OF I-80. OUTFLOW FROM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY COULD FURTHER KEEP TEMPERATURES
SUPPRESSED...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE THERE IS LARGE
BUST POTENTIAL. SO CONFIDENCE ON TUESDAY TEMPERATURES IS LOW. DEW
POINTS ARE THE ONE ELEMENT WHERE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE AND
THOSE WILL BE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S GIVEN THE HOMOGENEOUS
OBSERVATIONS OF THOSE VALUES UPSTREAM. IF AND WHERE TEMPERATURES
REACH OR EXCEED 90...THOSE DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX
READINGS TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO.
A POTENTIAL FOR RE-INITIATION OF CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WOULD
BE TIED TO ANY CONVERGENCE FROM LEFT-OVER BOUNDARIES. A CAP LOOKS TO
BE IN PLACE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM 850MB AIR...HOWEVER A
FOCUS COULD OVERCOME THAT. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS COULD
HAPPEN...BUT TOUGH TO SAY FOR SURE. INCHED UP POPS SLIGHTLY OVER
NORTHERN IL AND THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS...BUT AGAIN EVERYTHING DEPENDS HIGHLY ON HOW TONIGHT
UNFOLDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...
BEING AT THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THE PATTERN REMAINS MESSY...TIED TO
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES SPARKING STORMS AND LOW-LEVEL JETS...NAMELY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO POPS. DO HAVE LIKELIES ON THURSDAY WHEN GREATER HEIGHT
FALLS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH
AGAIN HEAT INDEX READINGS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THAT WOULD BE AIDED IF TUESDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION
REMAINS TO THE NORTH. AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST FINALLY
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST...AND A BLOCKING TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA MOVES ON...PROGRESSION IN THE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THIS
WEEKEND. FINALLY HAVE INTRODUCED A PERIOD WITH BELOW MENTIONABLE
POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
* POTENTIAL FOR EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
FOR A COUPLE HOURS.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHES FROM NEAR MADISON SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS DVN THIS HOUR AND IS STEADILY MARCHING EAST. THE MOST
INTENSE PORTION OF THE LINE FROM A WIND AND SEVERE WEATHER
PERSPECTIVE APPEARS TO BE CONTAINED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
IL/WI STATELINE. FARTHER SOUTH EXPECT THE LINE TO BECOME MORE
EAST-WEST ORIENTED THROUGH TIME. WHILE THE WIND THREAT WILL BE
LOWER THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...THOUGH MAY
STILL SEE AN INITIAL STRONG GUST OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST. AHEAD
OF THE STORMS...SSE WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE SSW. ONCE THE
LINE OF STORMS PASSES OVERHEAD IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
WHERE THE WINDS END UP...BUT COULD COME AROUND TO THE EAST OR
NORTHEAST FOR A COUPLE HOURS THEN GRADUALLY VEER BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING.
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES EXTREMELY UNSTABLE TOMORROW BUT THERE IS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE FORCING. STILL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OR SMALLER SCALE FEATURES MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO KICK OFF A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOT MENTION
ANYTHING IN THE TAF FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE BUT
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TUESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. TOMORROW EVENING...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM
ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS EXPECTED TO KICK
OFF ANOTHER LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS. SIMILAR TO THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY MAY STAY NORTH WITH THE
LINE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED A
PROB30 FOR ORD. OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRA TIMING TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TSRA IMPACTING TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN TSRA NEAR TERMINALS TUESDAY NIGHT.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MOST OF THE TAF BEING SSW/SW WINDS BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION OVERNIGHT NEAR THE INFLUENCE OF
TSRA.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR WITH PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
211 PM CDT
A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE DENSE FOG...STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND STRONG WINDS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME SCATTERED AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS FOG IS
LIKELY LOCALLY DENSE. HOWEVER...I HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON A FOG
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO RELATIVELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THE
FOG. HOWEVER...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECAST
UPDATES...AS IT APPEARS DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH DEW POINT AIR CONTINUES TO SHIFT OVER
THE LAKE.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA THIS EVENING. IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE. THIS ACTIVITY COULD RESULT
IN STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AND LOCALLY HIGH WAVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IT APPEARS THE WINDS OVER THE LAKE
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT OUT OF THE SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS...WHICH ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATER
TONIGHT. THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD CONTINUE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE...AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OF THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORE
WATERS. HOWEVER...I HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR
NOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
OUTFLOW FROM TONIGHTS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT THE LARGER
SCALE WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. IF THERE IS VERY
LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...OFFSHORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 25 KT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1156 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 856 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2014
Not much in the way of updates anticipated for ILX this evening.
4km WRF, local models, all eroding the activity to the NW before
it impacts Central Illinois, leaving portions in the northern
portions of the state... and also a segment diving southward
through IA and into MO by early morning. Southern segment
potentially having an impact on west central Illinois early
tomorrow morning. HRRR is similar, but slower. Will keep the
going forecast with just slight pops in the extreme north for some
iso activity/sprinkles south of main line. Will have to keep a
very close eye on the ongoing MCS to the NW though, as there is
warm moist air in its path, just running into an area of
subsidence overall. Will be very close later tonight...potentially
NW of the Illinois River Valley.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2014
VFR throughout...for now. MCS still progged to move across the
northern tier of the state. Adjusting fcst for some mid level
remnant clouds in addition to the cirrus. Threat for potential for
some showers in the far northern tier should some isolated
showers/ts head towards PIA/BMI later into the evening. But
chances are small enough not to put into the tafs at this time.
Southerly winds becoming more southwesterly tomorrow morning,
gusting again to 25 kts...and cu developing by mid morning.
HJS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 328 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2014
Main concern will be with chances of pcpn through most of the
forecast period. All models have trended further north with the
front and longer with the period of ridging this week. Differences
come with respect to when the ridging will break down enough to
allow pcpn into the area later this week. Prefer a slower solution
since the warm front will still be well north of the area through
Thursday. So will trend slower with pcpn onset and lower with pops
in upcoming forecast. Though would like to go drier in the later short
term periods, will need to stay blended with surrounding offices
as well.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday
Frontal boundary is currently lifting northward through the area
and has triggered some scattered thunderstorms, mainly in west
central Illinois. Believe these will continue moving north-
northeast and should stay mainly northwest of the IL river late
this afternoon and evening. Other showers or storms could develop
along the front in other areas, but these will not be as strong as
the ones in west central IL. All models try to have some pcpn this
evening, but GFS is overdone, and the NAM is not quite done
enough. Even the Canadian and ECMWF try to have some pcpn in the
area, but dry it out quickly bu 06z tonight. Apart from this,
believe dry weather will be the rule for remainder of the night
and through Tue. Models do well in forecasting the ridge to build
over the area this week and believe most of area will be dry
through Wed. With models trending slower with ridge breakdown,
believe most of the area could be dry through Thursday. However,
surrounding offices not as confident as I so will temper the
changes for now, but still trend in that direction. As complex of
storms moves along the front, well north of the area, outflow
boundaries could have an effect on extreme northern parts of the
cwa. Wed night and Thur, will have chc pops in parts of the cwa,
but still keep it dry in areas to the south.
Temps will be quite warm through the period and with dewpoints in
the lower 70s the whole time, believe heat index values will be in
the lower 100s for tomorrow and Wednesday.
LONG TERM...Thursday night through Monday
Extended looks to stay wet as the ridge does breakdown and a
front sits on top of the area through most of the period. Flow
becomes more zonal, which will be parallel to the front. So am
expecting periodic thunderstorms through the period. Then an upper
level trough pushes through the great lakes region and drags the
front south of the area, which should bring a return to dry and
cooler weather for Sun night and Monday.
Temps will be cooler than in first part of the week, just a tad
above normal, and then cool after the trough moves through Sun
night.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
WARM AND HUMID PATTERN WITH SURFACE FRONT SETTLING SOUTH INTO AND
THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT POSES
INCREASED RISK FOR PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS.
WEEKEND BIT LESS HUMID AND COOLS SLIGHTLY WITH A BIT OF CANADIAN
AIR BUT ONLY SLIGHT LOWERING OF RAIN THREATS. CERTAINLY NO WASHOUT
DAYS EXPECTED BUT BEST PERIOD FOR GREATEST CHANCES AND GREATEST
AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH AGAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER EXPECTED WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER IN COMING DAYS THEN
SLIGHT FILTERING OF CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
UPDATED GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS. UPSTREAM
CONVECTION HAS MANAGED TO ORGANIZE AND WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT 60-90 MINUTES.
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE...HEAVY RAIN...AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. HRRR SHOWS STORMS DROPPING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AND
DISSIPATING LATER TONIGHT...WHICH IS REASONABLE AS AIR WAS WORKED
OVER EARLIER TONIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY BOWING LINE OF STORMS JUST NORTH OF
BLOOMINGTON ILLINOIS WILL ENTER OUR NW COUNTIES BEFORE 5PM AND
SLIDE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER. WILL THUS CARRY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIKELY THERE OR GO SCATTERED IN WORDING. THE REMAINING ISOLATED
STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 WILL MAINTAIN THEMSELVES WITHIN THE
HIGH DEWPOINT AND CAPE AXIS AHEAD OF THE LINE.
BEST SHEAR REMAINS WELL NORTH AND BEST TRIGGER IN SURFACE TROUGH
ALSO REMAINS WELL NORTH SO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND BUOYANCY HAVE
LIMITED POTENTIAL. SLIGHT CHANCE ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PUT
OUT A SEVERE GUST AND HALF INCH HAIL UNTIL HEATING RECEDES AFTER
SUNDOWN. SHOULD LATE NIGHT MCS OCCUR...ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE
COULD BE GUSTY BUT THOSE EARLY THIS MORNING OUT NW REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE AT MOST PLACES.
MODELS EITHER OFF ON TIMING OR INDICATE NEW THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WOULD DEVELOP OVER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND CARRY SOUTHEAST INTO
OHIO OVERNIGHT. SW TAIL OF THIS FEATURE...WHETHER IT BE WHATS OUT
THERE NOW...OR WHAT DEVELOPS THIS EVENING SHOULD CATCH OUR FAR
NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES WHILE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH
COUNTIES MAY MISS RAIN OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED DEVELOPING FROM TODAYS
HEAT.
EXPECTING LOW TEMPS NEAR CURRENT FORECAST TO RANGE FROM UPPER 60S
WHERE GOOD DOWNPOURS AND DOWNDRAFTS OCCUR TO LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES AND SHOULD BE
FOCUS OF ONGOING CONVECTION FROM OVERNIGHT OR REDEVELOPMENT FROM
REMNANTS DURING THE DAY...MAINLY IN NORTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL
COUNTIES. AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TIED TO UPPER LOW SCOOTING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA SWEEPS IN...THIS WILL CONTINUE THREAT OF SCATTERED
STORMS UNTIL SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS ON HOW WELL THIS CLEARS REGION INTO
SATURDAY KEEPS LOW CHANCE THREAT FOR RAIN TO CONTINUE.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHICH WILL SEE
A BIT MORE SUN TO SHOOT FOR 90 THURSDAY...REMAINING AREAS WILL
HAVE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE
INTO MID AND UPPER 80S FOR MAXS WHILE LOWS STILL HOVER EITHER SIDE
OF 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
DONT BELIEVE CAN DO BETTER THAN REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE FOR PRECIPITATION.
MODELS DIVERGENCE STRONGLY WITH FORECASTS ALOFT OVER THE PERIOD.
STATISTICAL TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE NOT VERY CLOSE BETWEEN
AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS. CANT BE CONFIDENT WHICH WAY TO GO WITH
THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS SO DIFFERENT.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FORECAST A LITTLE HIGHER. WHILE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER SOMEWHAT BETWEEN MODELS...EITHER
WAY CHANCE POPS APPROPRIATE FOR MOST OF PERIOD.
OFTEN IN THIS SEASON ITS ASKING TOO MUCH FOR ANY MODEL TO BE MORE
PRECISE THAN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR POPS IN LONGER TERM.
HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SUCH THAT IF THEY CONTINUE WE WILL
EVENTUALLY SEE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THEIR PRECIP FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 190000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 616 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH REFLECTIVITY PROGS FROM THE CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST IND SHOULD BE THE ONLY TAF SITE THAT WOULD
HAVE A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NIGHTFALL TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS. THIS MAKES SENSE...AS SHEAR IS MINIMAL BUT
INSTABILITY IS HIGH. SO WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE...WILL GO WITH A TEMPO
MVFR THUNDERSTORM GROUP AT IND THROUGH 02Z AND NOTHING AT THE OTHER
TERMINALS. WILL ALSO MENTION TEMPO GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AS HAS BEEN
COMMON WITH THESE PULSE STORMS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD. COULD SEE
SOME MORE STORMS MAINLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A BOUNDARY DROPS DOWN
FROM THE NORTH AND LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN AROUND THE
AREA. SO...WILL THROW IN VCTS AND CB GROUPS AFTER 18Z.
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER
SUNSET.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
736 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING AIDED BY VERY WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S...AND LOWS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN THE MID
60S AND LOW 70S CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
MAINLY OUTFLOW DOMINANT QLCS WITH A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS WILL SLOW
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF HWY 24 IN INDIANA/OHIO
WHERE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESIDES (MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2500
J/KG)...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS INTO OUR OHIO
COUNTIES THROUGH 22-23Z. LINE WILL BECOME MORE BROKEN AND ORIENTED
MORE W TO E WITH TIME AS IT BECOMES ALIGNED TO SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
50 KT MID LEVEL JET TRANSLATING EAST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN.
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY RESULT SOUTH OF HWY 24. AREAS TO THE NORTH
WORKED OVER AND STABLE...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/ISO
THUNDER (NON-SEVERE) IN THE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE/MCV PROPAGATES INTO MICHIGAN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
REINVIGORATING CONV LINE INADV OF POTENT MCV MARCHING EWD ACRS WI
THE NR TERM CHALLENGE THIS PD. COPIOUS MSTR IN PLACE ALG W/RAPID
MORNING DESTABILIZATION HAS LED TO A CONCRETE SHRT TERM SVR THREAT
EWD ACRS THE AREA. IN ADDN ECHO ALIGNMENT WITHIN MID LVL SHEAR
VECTORS PORTEND A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN ESP THROUGH CNTRL CWA
THROUGH THIS AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS APPRECIABLY THROUGH FIRST PART OF
EVENING AS TENDENCY SHLD BE FOR REDVLPMNT TO TAKE PLACE WITHIN WRN
FLANK OF GROWING COLD POOL LTR THIS AFTN.
OTRWS OVERNIGHT PD REMAINS SKETCHY OWING TO EFFECTS OF CURRENT
GROWING CONV CLUSTER TAKING SHAPE ACRS NE IL/NW IN AND WHERE
UPSTREAM LIKELY SVR MCS DVLPMNT TAKES PLACE THIS AFTN. RUC/HRRR
WOULD SUGGEST LL WAA OVERTOP OUTFLW BUBBLE THIS EVENING WILL SUSTAIN
ADDNL DVLPMNT ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA AND GENERALLY BROADBRUSHED POPS
IN ACCORDANCE W/NEWER 12Z MOS GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS AN EVENTUAL SWD
SAG XPCD OVERNIGHT W/COMPOSITED OUTFLW/SYNOPTIC SFC BNDRY AND HAVE
BOUGHT INTO MODEL CONSENSUS OF SHIFTING PCPN WELL SOUTH OF AREA
TOMORROW. HAVE CUT/ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVES WORK EAST IN FLATTENED WNW
FLOW...WITH CONVECTION/MCV`S LIKELY LATCHING ONTO A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY. THE RESULT IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FCST WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES IN LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW
DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE BEYOND 24 HOURS. BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS/HVY RAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY AS CORRIDOR OF
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND NORTHEAST PUSH OF RICH THETA-E AIR IN ADVANCE
OF A LEAD WAVE EJECTING EAST FROM A NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS
CLOSED LOW OVERSPREADS. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
ON STRENGTH OF FLOW ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF POTENTIAL MCV AND TIMING OF
WAVE (DEGREE OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION).
LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH FRIDAY`S WAVE FORCING COMPOSITE OUTFLOW SOUTH WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS. WITH THAT SAID STILL
HELD WITH LOW CHC POPS GIVEN RELIANCE/UNCERTAINTY OF FRIDAY`S WAVE
TO SHUNT FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. A SIMILAR REGIME IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE MORE TROUGHING/DEEPER NW FLOW
FINALLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
RESULTING IN DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
MADE TO TEMPS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
DIFFICULT AND UNCERTAIN AVIATION FORECAST. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
UNSTABLE AND HAS RECOVERED SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. LINE OF TSRA
HAS DEVELOPED FROM IN/MI WEST TO NORTHERN IL...SOME OF WHICH HAVE
BEEN STRONG WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SATELLITE SHOWS CONVERGING
BOUNDARIES ALONG THIS LINE ENHANCING CONVERGENCE. WITH EXPECTED
LOW LEVEL JET TO CONTINUE RAMPING UP OVERNIGHT EXPECT THIS AREA TO
FILL IN FURTHER AND CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO KSBN AREA.
UNCERTAINY THROUGH THE EVENING WHETHER THIS CONVECTION TRAINS INTO
THE AREA AND IF SO...FOR HOW LONG. HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE BUT HRRR TRYING TO LATCH ON AND WOULD KEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. ADDED TEMPO TSRA GROUP TO KSBN
AND VCTS TO KFWA BUT UPDATES WILL BE NEEDED AS PICTURE BECOMES
MORE CLEAR IN NEXT FEW HOURS.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...AGD/STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LASHLEY
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
959 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
UPPER LEVEL DATA ANALYSIS ENDING AT 19Z SHOWS A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION AS A RESULT OF THIS LOW. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD.
SATELLITE DATA LOOP ENDING AT 1915Z SHOWS AN AREA OF ACCAS THAT HAS
EXTENDED FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS HAS
BEEN PRESENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND OUTLINES THE AREA OF FAVORED
CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW DOWN TO NEAR
KODX-KTQK-KLIC. A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM JUST WEST OF KGCK...SOUTH TO
JUST WEST OF KLBL INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLE.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS INITIATED ACROSS WEST TEXAS ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAVORED AREA. THIS IS PRETTY CLOSE TO WHERE THE 17Z HRRR
RUN HAS SHOWN IT.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS CONVECTION.
COOK
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
LATEST SHORT TERM AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A LACK OF CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
STORM OVER BARTON/RUSSELL COUNTIES WILL PERSIST FOR A LITTLE
WHILE...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING STORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AS EARLIER GUIDANCE INDICATED. DID HOWEVER LEAVE SLIGHT
POPS OVERNIGHT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR THE CHANCE THAT SOME
OF THE STORMS FROM THE TX/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE MAKES IT THIS FAR
EAST. THINK THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
THE TREND OF THE HRRR RUNS FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO
SHOW MORE RAINFALL FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
A DIVERGENCE TO THE OTHER NWP...BUT GIVEN ITS ACCURACY AND
PERFORMANCE...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT.
AS FAR AS SEVERE GOES...SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS ONE
MOVES EAST...DEEP LAYER SHEAR FALLS BELOW 20 KNOTS BEFORE YOU REACH
INTERSTATE 135. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE CONVECTION EAST OF
INTERSTATE 135.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS AGAIN LOOK
FAVORABLE...THOUGH ON THE LOWER END OF THAT FAVORABLY FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THIS FAVORABLY WILL
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. IF STORMS STRAY FROM OR
ORGANIZE AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE FRONT AND OUTRUN THE FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...THEY SHOULD WEAKEN.
COOK
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
INTO THE WEEKEND...THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS AROUND THE
REGION. NWP IS IN SOME DISARRAY WITH THE POSITION OF THE
BOUNDARY...AFFECTED BY OUTFLOWS AND COLD POOLS. CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTION LOCATION IS QUITE LOW. THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THE FRONT REMAINS IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST
AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. SEVERE CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE NEAR THE STALLED FRONT...WHICH SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS
ARE MOST FAVORABLE.
COOK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCES FOR STORMS
TONIGHT AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT MAY IMPACT KRSL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE KRSL TERMINAL. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION
AFTER THIS MAIN ACTIVITY TONIGHT IS LOW. CANNOT RULE OUT
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN LOCATION AND TIMING IS LOW AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA...BUT CURRENT
GUIDANCE STALLS THE FRONT BETWEEN KRSL AND KSLN DURING THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY. THIS LOCATION IS CONTINGENT ON HOW OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
BEHAVES. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES.
LOWER CEILINGS IN THE MVFR RANGE COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
KRSL/KSLN AS THE FRONT NEARS THOSE LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 73 90 70 90 / 20 50 70 30
HUTCHINSON 73 90 69 91 / 30 50 70 20
NEWTON 72 88 69 90 / 20 50 70 20
ELDORADO 72 86 68 88 / 20 60 70 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 73 88 70 90 / 20 50 60 30
RUSSELL 70 89 66 92 / 50 40 40 20
GREAT BEND 70 89 67 92 / 50 40 50 20
SALINA 73 90 68 92 / 20 50 60 20
MCPHERSON 72 89 68 91 / 20 50 70 20
COFFEYVILLE 74 85 70 88 / 10 50 50 30
CHANUTE 73 85 69 88 / 20 50 50 30
IOLA 73 85 69 88 / 20 50 50 30
PARSONS-KPPF 73 85 70 88 / 10 50 50 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
559 PM MDT WED JUN 18 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT WED JUN 18 2014
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT CAPE HAS DECREASED BY ABOUT 500
J/KG SINCE A COUPLE HOURS AGO ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
SHEAR IS STILL FAIRLY WEAK AND CELLS CONTINUE TO BE MORE OF A
PULSE NATURE. RECENT STORM THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN GOVE
AND SOUTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTIES DEVELOPED NEAR A TRIPLE POINT WHERE
THE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT CONVERGE. THIS STORM SEEMS TO HAVE MORE
PUNCH TO IT IN THE FORM OF LARGER HAIL POSSIBLE AND A STRONGER
MESOCYCLONE. THE TRIPLE POINT HAS MOVED NORTH INTO GOVE COUNTY
AND HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE ACCORDING TO LATEST 0.5 DEGREE
KGLD RADAR SCANS. CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TRIPLE POINT.
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS COLORADO WHILE LEAD
SHORTWAVE...RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION OVER WESTERN
KANSAS...CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THE COLORADO SHORTWAVE HAS LEAD
TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN AND AROUND THE DENVER METRO AREA.
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE THIS CONVECTION GRADUALLY MOVES
EAST THIS EVENING...MAKING IT INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MAKES IT
INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS BUT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON
THIS SOLUTION. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK UNTIL IT
HITS AN AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A
THUNDERSTORM HAS RECENTLY FORMED ON THIS AXIS SO THE STORMS
HITTING THIS AXIS LATER THIS EVENING NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 353 PM MDT WED JUN 18 2014
UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS.
WITH RESPECT TO THE ENVIRONMENT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE UNSTABLE
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH 3000 J/KG SBCAPE ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR LOCATIONS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE
STALLED COLD FRONT...LOCATED OVER WICHITA AND GREELEY COUNTIES IN
NORTHWEST KANSAS. 0-3 KM HELICITY ALONG THE FRONT ARE ANALYZED UP
TO 200 M2/S2. WILL NEED TO WATCH LOCATIONS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A
STALLED BOUNDARY...HIGH SBCAPE AND ENHANCED SURFACE VORTICITY IN
THE VICINITY. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SHORT
LIVED...LANDSPOUT TYPE TORNADOES. OTHER THAN THAT...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WITH A LARGE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR...STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE
MORE OF THE PULSE VARIETY SO HAIL LARGER THAN GOLF BALLS...
POSSIBLY PING PONG BALLS...SEEMS MOST UNLIKELY.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO COLORADO LATER THIS EVENING FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THAT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MDT WED JUN 18 2014
COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHWEST KANSAS. IT IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BE NEAR A
NORTON TO WALLACE LINE BEFORE BEING SWEPT SOUTH AGAIN BY A STRONGER
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE FRONT...WITH MORE STORMS POSSIBLE COMING OUT OF NORTHEAST
COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT. WHILE VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION WILL BE
LIMITED BY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25KTS. AS A
RESULT...MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD END
AROUND MIDNIGHT. MIGHT SEE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND EARLY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH LOWER DEW
POINTS AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE REGIME WILL GRADUALLY BE
ESTABLISHED BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NO UPPER SUPPORT FOR LIFT
BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT WED JUN 18 2014
DIFFICULT FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO REALLY ADD
MUCH DETAIL AS FAR AS TIMING AND LOCATION OF POSSIBLE RAINFALL GIVEN
THE RATHER BROAD LIFT AND INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 300MB JET IS OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS ANOTHER SMALLER 500MB
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BUILDS NORTH SLIGHTLY CAUSING THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO ALSO MOVE NORTH AND THE DRY LINE TO RETREAT
BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. AM THINKING THERE WILL BE TWO
AREAS WHERE STORMS MAY FIRE...ALONG THE RETREATING DRY LINE WHERE
THE ELEVATED CAPE IS HIGHEST AND/OR AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH FROM COLORADO WHICH MAY ALSO HAVE SOME STORMS ADVANCING
AHEAD OF IT AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WHICH WILL STALL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELEVATED CAPE DECLINES
AFTER MIDNIGHT TO UNDER 1000J/KG...SO AM THINKING ISOLATED COVERAGE
AT BEST. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 30KTS SO A SEVERE STORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT DURING THE EVENING.
FRIDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED LINGERING STORMS ALONG THE
KS/NE BORDER WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE.
THESE SHOULD MOVE OUT/DISSIPATE BY NOON. DURING THE AFTERNOON
ATTENTION FOCUSES ON THE DRY LINE NEAR THE CO/KS LINE. INSTABILITY
QUICKLY INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE DRY LINE AS THE
500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO DEEPENS...PLACING
BROAD LIFT OVER THE AREA. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD PEAK BY MID
AFTERNOON...AS IS TYPICAL...AND MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING.
FRIDAY EVENING THE ONGOING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST...MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. CAPE
PROFILES ARE FAIRLY FAT BUT WINDS IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE ARE
FAIRLY LOW...AROUND 25KTS. HOWEVER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS AROUND
30KTS BY EARLY EVENING SO A SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA AS MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVE THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY A
COLD FRONT. THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS LEAN TOWARDS SLIGHTLY SLOWING
THE TROUGH DOWN. IN ADDITION THERE ARE VERY LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS PLAINS DUE TO A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON EACH COAST...WHICH WOULD FURTHER INDICATE THE
TROUGH WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY SHOWN. THERE WILL BE
SOME WRAP AROUND RAINFALL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL FURTHER PROLONG THE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE WARMEST DURING THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES OVERALL BEING NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT WED JUN 18 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE PERIOD WITH TEMPORARY MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH
THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE
FRONT RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES.
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. INCLUDED VCTS AT 02Z FOR KGLD AND AT 03Z
FOR KMCK WITH 2 HOUR TEMPO GROUPS FOR EACH TERMINAL FOR WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ENTER. AS THE EVENT GETS UNDERWAY...AMENDMENTS
WILL BE MADE FOR TIMING OF CELLS ENTERING THE TERMINALS BUT
INCLUDED THE TEMPO GROUP AS A FIRST BEST GUESS. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS REMAINING GUSTY...UP TO AROUND 30 KTS...FOR A FEW
HOURS BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
AND LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PUSH THROUGH THE
TERMINALS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY WITH
LIGHTER NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...RRH
UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
640 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
UPPER LEVEL DATA ANALYSIS ENDING AT 19Z SHOWS A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION AS A RESULT OF THIS LOW. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD.
SATELLITE DATA LOOP ENDING AT 1915Z SHOWS AN AREA OF ACCAS THAT HAS
EXTENDED FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS HAS
BEEN PRESENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND OUTLINES THE AREA OF FAVORED
CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW DOWN TO NEAR
KODX-KTQK-KLIC. A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM JUST WEST OF KGCK...SOUTH TO
JUST WEST OF KLBL INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLE.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS INITIATED ACROSS WEST TEXAS ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAVORED AREA. THIS IS PRETTY CLOSE TO WHERE THE 17Z HRRR
RUN HAS SHOWN IT.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS CONVECTION.
COOK
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
THE TREND OF THE HRRR RUNS FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO
SHOW MORE RAINFALL FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
A DIVERGENCE TO THE OTHER NWP...BUT GIVEN ITS ACCURACY AND
PERFORMANCE...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT.
AS FAR AS SEVERE GOES...SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS ONE
MOVES EAST...DEEP LAYER SHEAR FALLS BELOW 20 KNOTS BEFORE YOU REACH
INTERSTATE 135. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE CONVECTION EAST OF
INTERSTATE 135.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS AGAIN LOOK
FAVORABLE...THOUGH ON THE LOWER END OF THAT FAVORABLY FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THIS FAVORABLY WILL
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. IF STORMS STRAY FROM OR
ORGANIZE AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE FRONT AND OUTRUN THE FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...THEY SHOULD WEAKEN.
COOK
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
INTO THE WEEKEND...THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS AROUND THE
REGION. NWP IS IN SOME DISARRAY WITH THE POSITION OF THE
BOUNDARY...AFFECTED BY OUTFLOWS AND COLD POOLS. CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTION LOCATION IS QUITE LOW. THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THE FRONT REMAINS IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST
AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. SEVERE CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE NEAR THE STALLED FRONT...WHICH SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS
ARE MOST FAVORABLE.
COOK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCES FOR STORMS
TONIGHT AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT MAY IMPACT KRSL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE KRSL TERMINAL. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION
AFTER THIS MAIN ACTIVITY TONIGHT IS LOW. CANNOT RULE OUT
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN LOCATION AND TIMING IS LOW AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA...BUT CURRENT
GUIDANCE STALLS THE FRONT BETWEEN KRSL AND KSLN DURING THE DAYTIME
THURSDAY. THIS LOCATION IS CONTINGENT ON HOW OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
BEHAVES. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES.
LOWER CEILINGS IN THE MVFR RANGE COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
KRSL/KSLN AS THE FRONT NEARS THOSE LOCATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 73 90 70 90 / 30 50 70 30
HUTCHINSON 73 90 69 91 / 30 50 70 20
NEWTON 72 88 69 90 / 30 50 70 20
ELDORADO 72 86 68 88 / 40 60 70 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 73 88 70 90 / 50 50 60 30
RUSSELL 70 89 66 92 / 50 40 40 20
GREAT BEND 70 89 67 92 / 50 40 50 20
SALINA 73 90 68 92 / 20 50 60 20
MCPHERSON 72 89 68 91 / 30 50 70 20
COFFEYVILLE 74 85 70 88 / 40 50 50 30
CHANUTE 73 85 69 88 / 40 50 50 30
IOLA 73 85 69 88 / 40 50 50 30
PARSONS-KPPF 73 85 70 88 / 40 50 50 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
617 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
A minor upper level trough is currently moving through western
Kansas, with the stronger dynamics centered off to the north of our
CWA. There is a cold front in the vicinity from Hays to north of
Syracuse in Hamilton County as of 20z. A dry-line has formed and
was from approximately Liberal to Garden City to Hill City at 20z.
There was a lower level wave which moved up from the Texas Panhandle
earlier this afternoon, which shoved the dry-line northeastward into
the cold front, causing the cold front to bow northward in the Ness
City/Hays area. This dry-line intrusion into the cold front also
slowed the progress of the front to the southeast. A fairly good
amount of mid to high level clouds covered most of the CWA at 20z,
and a single storm formed near Scott City between 19Z and 20Z. The
short term models of the RUC, HRRR and ARW all backed off on a solid
line of storms forming along the dry-line this afternoon, but rather
a patchy line of storms. There will still probably be a few
isolated severe storms with quarter size hail, but do not think the
severe storms will be widespread or very big hail (quarters). Will
monitor SPC for a Watch.
Overnight, the precipitation band from this afternoon should move
east, with another surface low moving up from Oklahoma into the P28
area. The aforementioned front will progress southeast through our
CWA and be near a Pratt to Coldwater line by 12Z in the morning.
Therefore, with greater moisture available in the southeast zones,
will increase Pops there toward 12Z, and then spread the Pops back
to the northwest during the day Thursday. SPC`s Day2 outlook has
about our southeast 1/3rd of the CWA in a slight risk. We will be
cooler in the afternoon, with the cold front south of us. Have to
agree with SPC`s assessment though, with the NAM model showing 3700
J/Kg of MuCape in our eastern zones, and 24 to 27Kts of bulk shear
in that same zone Tuesday at 21Z. There will likely be some more
severe storms, again with Quarters to a little larger hail. The TOR
threat looks minimal, but some 60kt winds could easily mix down.
As for Max/Min temperatures, I did not change anything. Lows
tonight will be elevated in the 60F (NW) to 72F (SE) range. On
Thursday, it will be cooler with maximum temperatures ranging from
the mid 80s north of I-70 and upper 80s down south along the
Oklahoma border.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
The mid to upper level flow will become zonal by later this week and
into the weekend. This will allow for lee troughing and a dryline situated
across far western Kansas. Afternoon and early nighttime
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. But in the absence of upslope
flow this far south, and with the lack of low level baroclinicity
and a well defined upper level jet, organized thunderstorm
activity will probably stay farther north through Saturday. High
temperatures will be in the lower 90s through Saturday with lows
mainly in the 60s. Thunderstorm chances are higher by late Sunday
as a weak shortwave trough embedded in zonal flow traverses
western Kansas. Organized thunderstorm activity is possible into
Monday with this feature, along with cooler temperatures by
Monday. Thunderstorm chances may diminish by late Monday and
Tuesday as weak surface high pressure builds into western Kansas.
However, by late Tuesday and into mid to late next week, there
will be more opportunities for thunderstorms as westerly to
northwesterly mid to high level flow persists, along with weak
capping and plentiful low level moisture. High temperatures will
be held down by cloud cover and convective debris.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
Will carry VCTS at the Garden City, Dodge City and Hays TAF sites
for a few hours this evening as widely scattered thunderstorms
move through central and parts of southwest Kansas. The
thunderstorm activity should be ending after 03-04z. Winds should
remain gusty to around 25 knots from the south until late tonight.
A cold front will drop south across the area Thursday morning.
Winds could become gusty to 10 to 20 knots for a short time behind
the front but should diminish and become easterly during the day.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 87 63 91 / 20 30 20 20
GCK 65 86 62 92 / 20 10 10 20
EHA 63 87 63 91 / 20 10 10 10
LBL 67 89 64 92 / 20 20 20 10
HYS 68 86 62 91 / 20 20 10 20
P28 72 89 67 91 / 30 50 40 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
248 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER IDAHO. VERY DRY
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHEAST WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
PLAINS WITH MONSOONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WELL
EAST OF OUR AREA. A DRY LINE IS ALSO EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF
OBERLIN KANSAS AND OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES HAVE
DEVELOPED AND CIN HAS WEAKENED SOME OVER FAR EASTER PARTS OF OUR OVER
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA. WHILE
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DEVELOP OVER THE NE PANHANDLE...A VERY DEEP/DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
OVER OUR CWA AND A TREND TOWARDS LOW TD VALUES MIXING NORTH SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD HAVE
A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE...THIS DOESNT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND SURFACE
PATTERN/GRADIENT IS FAIRLY WEAK OVER OUR CWA. RH VALUES HAVE
DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY HOWEVER WITH FUELS STILL QUESTIONABLE AND
WINDS MARGINAL NO RED FLAG WARNING IS PLANNED THIS AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...WHILE STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS AS THE AIR MASS ALOFT BEGINS TO CHANGE
WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE COULD
START TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG A CONVERGENCE ZONE IN OUR EASTERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
BETTER COVERAGE AFTER 00Z (7PM CDT). SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED
WED AFTERNOON DUE TO QUESTIONABLE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND LIMITED
SHEER. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF TROUGH AXIS WE COULD
SEE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN CWA THAT COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
THREAT THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
WEDNESDAY EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
THE TRI-STATE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...700-300MB FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIOS...SPECIFICALLY THOSE AT
750MB...INCREASE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
AT THE SURFACE THE DRY LINE OVER NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES WILL
MOVE BACK WEST ONE OR TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER
EASTERN COLORADO DEEPENS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA EAST OF RETREATING DRY LINE.
IN ADDITION A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST RAPID
PRESSURE RISES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 50 KTS JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST TO 45 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THE ISALLOBARIC TREND DECLINES SO WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH...EXITING THE AREA AROUND
SUNRISE.
MEANWHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF IT TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850 TO
750 MB OR SO STEEPEN. THE ADDED EFFECT OF INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MIXING RATIOS WILL CREATE ELEVATED CAPE OF 1000-2500 J/KG...WITH THE
HIGHEST CAPE OVER FAR EASTERN NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 50KTS SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY.
TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY TIME/LOCATION OF THE SEVERE STORMS IN
THE FORECAST. THIS SETUP IS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVENING AS FAR AS A
SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL WITH STORMS FORMING UPSTREAM OF A COLD FRONT
WITH STRONG ISALLOBARIC TRENDS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF STORMS
MERGE INTO A SQUALL LINE BEHIND THE FRONT AND IF HIGH WINDS DEVELOP
BEHIND THE STORMS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.
TOWARD SUNRISE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WITH DRIER MORE STABLE AIR FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IN FROM THE WEST.
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AND DRY DUE TO A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING A WEAKER 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE COLORADO BORDER. THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT WILL
RETREAT BACK INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA AS THE LEE
TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO DEEPENS. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL
MIXING RATIOS TO INCREASE EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ALLOW
ELEVATED CAPE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE 500MB TROUGH. AS A RESULT
WILL HAVE SOME LOW RAINFALL CHANCES FOR STORMS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH
FOLLOWING THE RETREATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. DUE TO SOUNDINGS NOT LOOKING
VERY SUITABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE...WILL KEEP PRECIP.
CHANCES FAIRLY LOW DESPITE ELEVATED CAPE OF 1000-2000J/KG.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE AS THE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS SLOWLY PLODS EAST WITH NUMEROUS SMALLER
TROUGHS SOUTH OF IT MOVING OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHEN A DEEPER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. GEFS MEMBERS HAVE HIGH CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL FOR THAT NIGHT WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE THAT THE AREA WILL
RECEIVE RAINFALL. FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES FOR RAINFALL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA.
SINCE THESE SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS ARE TIED TO THE EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF MODELS PUSH THE HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES AHEAD A DAY OR TWO BY THE
TIME NEXT WEEK ARRIVES SINCE MODELS TEND TO MOVE CLOSED LOWS TOO
FAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THEN COOL TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK TERMINAL...WITH ONLY A 15KFT AGL CLOUD LAYER DEVELOPING LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR KMCK AND WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND GRADIENT IS STILL WEAK OVER
KGLD...SO THERE HAS BEEN A DELAY IN THE WINDS INCREASING. WIND
GUSTS 20-25KT ARE STILL EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH WINDS DECREASING AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
137 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER IDAHO. VERY DRY
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHEAST WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
PLAINS WITH MONSOONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WELL
EAST OF OUR AREA. A DRY LINE IS ALSO EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF
OBERLIN KANSAS AND OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES HAVE
DEVELOPED AND CIN HAS WEAKENED SOME OVER FAR EASTER PARTS OF OUR OVER
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA. WHILE
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DEVELOP OVER THE NE PANHANDLE...A VERY DEEP/DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
OVER OUR CWA AND A TREND TOWARDS LOW TD VALUES MIXING NORTH SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD HAVE
A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE...THIS DOESNT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND SURFACE
PATTERN/GRADIENT IS FAIRLY WEAK OVER OUR CWA. RH VALUES HAVE
DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY HOWEVER WITH FUELS STILL QUESTIONABLE AND
WINDS MARGINAL NO RED FLAG WARNING IS PLANNED THIS AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...WHILE STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS AS THE AIR MASS ALOFT BEGINS TO CHANGE
WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE COULD
START TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG A CONVERGENCE ZONE IN OUR EASTERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
BETTER COVERAGE AFTER 00Z (7PM CDT). SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED
WED AFTERNOON DUE TO QUESTIONABLE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND LIMITED
SHEER. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF TROUGH AXIS WE COULD
SEE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN CWA THAT COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
THREAT THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
FAIRLY SEASONABLE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND A CHANCE FOR
STORMS ON MOST DAYS. ON THE LARGE SCALE AN UPPER LOW WILL LOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CANADIAN PLAINS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE SETTLING IN BEHIND IT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.
THIS PATTERN STICKS AROUND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEST COAST
LONGWAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN
ESSENTIALLY REMAINS STAGNANT.
LOCALLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA
IN SOME FORM FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING WARM AND MOIST AIR TO
ADVECT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WHILE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
LOOK LIKE SOME TYPICAL SUMMER CONVECTION...THE INCREASED MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIALLY TO LEAD TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. WHILE STILL A LONG WAY
OUT...THIS SET-UP HAS THE POTENTIALLY FOR FLOODING DUE TO
EXTREMELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS /LESS THAN 5 KTS AT TIMES/ AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE /PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES...APPROACHING 99TH
PERCENTILE LEVELS FOR AREA RAOB CLIMATOLOGY/. CURRENTLY HAVE A
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHICH IS VERY CONSERVATIVE COMPARED TO LATEST GUIDANCE AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW LATEST WPC FORECAST. IF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT
EXPECT HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
TEMPS OVER THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART...UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS FRI/SAT/SUN AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S. MONDAY WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT ONLY BY A
FEW DEGREES - EXPECT HIGHS NEAR 80.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK TERMINAL...WITH ONLY A 15KFT AGL CLOUD LAYER DEVELOPING LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR KMCK AND WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND GRADIENT IS STILL WEAK OVER
KGLD...SO THERE HAS BEEN A DELAY IN THE WINDS INCREASING. WIND
GUSTS 20-25KT ARE STILL EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH WINDS DECREASING AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1027 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
A FEW TINY SHOWERS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING ACROSS MORGAN AND ELLIOT
COUNTIES. THESE HAVE ALREADY DISSIPATED LEAVING EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY
FOR THE TIME BEING. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST
EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE SLID BY TO THE NORTH AND STAYED WELL AWAY
FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY. THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD DRY PERIOD CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE ACTIVITY IS NOTED ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA/ILLINOIS...AND THIS MAY WORK SOUTHWARD TOWARDS OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY IS ALREADY STARTING OFF FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ACTIVITY
EARLIER THIS EVENING...SO SOME QUESTION EXISTS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
IT WILL EVEN MAKE IT HERE. WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE DOWNGRADED POPS A
BIT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. CHANCES ARE CERTAINLY BETTER
THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON
CONVECTION TOMORROW MORNING AND BETTER CHANCES MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
BETTER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
UPDATED A BIT EARLIER TO REMOVE THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE EVENING AS WE
HAVE STABILIZED QUITE WELL IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL WATCHING SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THEY PUSH
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. SOME OF THESE COULD THREATEN
OUR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS
TIME...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY OUT OF OUR AREA
TONIGHT. BETTER THREAT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
LIMITED ANY THUNDER CHANCES LATE TONIGHT TO MAINLY OUR NORTHERN AREAS
WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT RESIDES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHILE AN ACTIVE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS FOUND LYING WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. TODAY/S ROUND OF MCS
ACTIVITY IS ROLLING EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH OF
KENTUCKY. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS DID DEVELOP OVER FAR EAST
KENTUCKY EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AND KICKED OFF A FEW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...BUT THESE SECONDARY STORMS WERE NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES. PERHAPS THAT WAS DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL WARMING NOTED IN
THE NAM12 SOUNDINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...A SMALL RISK FOR
UNORGANIZED STORMS REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE EVENING...WHILE MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE SPARED.
THIS LEAVES JUST VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. TO TOP IT OFF...EVEN THE WINDS HAVE BEEN
OF LITTLE RELIEF...FOR THOSE THAT MISSED OUT ON THE STORMS...MOSTLY
JUST LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST...FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH. THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE...WEAK AS
IT IS...WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH LATER TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH
AND ITS ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THE RIDGE
FURTHER FADES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
REAL MODEL CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND THE WAVY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH
OF KENTUCKY AND INDICATIONS THAT IT WILL CURL SOUTH TO THIS PART
OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL SEND THE PREFERRED
MCS TRACK CLOSE TO OUR AREA AND LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A WET END
TO THE WORK WEEK. GIVEN THE SMALLER SCALES THAT WILL BE
DETERMINATIVE FOR THE ACTUAL MOVEMENT AND EXTENT OF SUCH ACTIVITY
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM12 THAN THE OTHER MODELS...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY SPECIFICS GIVEN THE NATURE OF SUCH LATE
SPRING/EARLY SUMMER MCS/QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EVENTS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AN EARLY DIE OUT OF PINHEAD CONVECTION
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A MUGGY AND WARM NIGHT. MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR PARTS OF
OHIO WITH A GOOD POTENTIAL TO FOLLOW THE LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO
NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY TOWARD DAWN. THE SOUPY ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD THEN SUPPORT AIR MASS...AND BETTER ORGANIZED...STORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL LINGERING
WELL INTO THE NIGHT GIVEN THE BOUNDARY RIGHT ON OUR NORTHEAST
BORDER. WILL CONTINUE MEDIUM POP CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA FROM NEAR DAWN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AGAIN STARTED WITH THE BCCONSSHORT FOR T/TD AND WINDS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN USED THE BCCONSALL. DID MAKE SOME MINUSCULE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE VALLEY AND RIDGE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOR POPS...ENDED CLOSEST TO THE MAV NUMBERS TONIGHT AND THEN
SIMILAR TO A MOS BLEND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH HAS BROUGHT US THE RECENT HOT WEATHER
WILL BE SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST. DESPITE THIS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE GREATER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.80 TO
OVER 1.95 INCHES AT 00Z ON SATURDAY...OR AROUND OR POSSIBLY GREATER
THAN THE 99TH PERCENTILE. THIS...COMBINED WITH STORM MOTION FORECAST
TO BE 5 TO 15 KNOTS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ISOLATED FLOODING. HAVE MENTIONED THIS
POSSIBILITY IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THE FRONT SHOULD GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND BUT STILL NEED TO BE MENTIONED IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT TO START THE LONG
TERM PERIOD THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT
ANY THAT CHANGE THE OVERALL FORECAST OF DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN HOW WELL DEWPOINTS
MIXED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT SHOULD ESCAPE THE AIRPORTS
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY START MOVING INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY AS EARLY AS TOMORROW MORNING AND HAVE KEPT A VCTS IN THE
TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING
TO INCLUDE PREVAILING THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1000 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT THERE SHOULD
BE A BREAK ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE STORMS
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
WILL CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE OVER
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. LEFT AREAS OF FOG IN...BUT IT APPEARS
IT WILL BE FAIRLY PATCHY WITH 15+ KNOTS WINDS AT 1K FT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
LINE OF STORMS DEPARTING THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A LULL EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AIRMASS
SHOULD GET A CHANCE TO DESTABILIZE BEFORE SUNSET...WHICH ALLOWS NEW
STORMS TO FIRE UP AS AN MCV TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA. THIS HAS BEEN INDICATED BY THE HRRR AS WELL AS THE 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF. POPS AND QPF SHADED HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTH.
STORMS DIMINISH THURSDAY UNDER SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND PICK UP
AGAIN FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
QUASI ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAK UPPER IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE PERIOD. ONE OF THOSE WAVES WILL PUSH A
WEAK COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CWA FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS LOW PRESSURE
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES ENE. WE/LL HAVE CHC POPS
BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CARRY THAT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT MOVING THE LOW TO
ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS HIGHER QPF VS THE GFS BUT BOTH
SHOW SHOWERS. WE/LL LIKELY HAVE TO INCREASE POPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK IF THE TREND CONTINUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THROUGH 03Z...THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD LOOKS
MAINLY DRY. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER THIS EVENING WILL BE AT
KAZO...KBTL AND KJXN.
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO STRATUS FILLING IN IN THE WAKE OF THE
PRECIPITATION. EXPECTATION IS THAT A BAND OF LOWER CEILINGS WILL
PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z...BUT WITH SOME
CLEARING POSSIBLE IT MAY DEVELOP OVERHEAD AS WELL. BOTTOM LINE IS
WE ARE EXPECTING AT LEAST MVFR AND MORE LIKELY IFR FROM ABOUT 06Z
THROUGH 15Z OR SO AT MOST TAF SITES.
IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR THE QUICKEST THURSDAY AT THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES AND LINGER A BIT LONGER AT THE I94 TAF SITES. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WE SHOULD BE VFR OR TRENDING VFR AT ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TONIGHT SHIFTING TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG...WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN BLO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
RIVERS ARE RUNNING WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS AND NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER... THE GRAND AND MUSKEGON RIVERS ARE
BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RISE DUE TO THE RAIN FROM TUESDAY AND TODAY.
ONLY THE ROGUE RIVER AT ROCKFORD LOOKS LIKE IT MAY RISE TO NEAR
BANKFULL... AND THAT WOULD BE TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD ADD LITTLE ADDITIONAL RISE TO THE RIVERS. THURSDAY
MIGHT BE A DRY DAY... BUT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY COULD BRING MORE POINTS UP TO NEAR BANKFULL. RIVER FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. MINOR AREAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE
HEAVY RAIN IN THE THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...OSTUNO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
752 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT THERE SHOULD
BE A BREAK ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE STORMS
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
LINE OF STORMS DEPARTING THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A LULL EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AIRMASS
SHOULD GET A CHANCE TO DESTABILIZE BEFORE SUNSET...WHICH ALLOWS NEW
STORMS TO FIRE UP AS AN MCV TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA. THIS HAS BEEN INDICATED BY THE HRRR AS WELL AS THE 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF. POPS AND QPF SHADED HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTH.
STORMS DIMINISH THURSDAY UNDER SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND PICK UP
AGAIN FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
QUASI ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAK UPPER IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE PERIOD. ONE OF THOSE WAVES WILL PUSH A
WEAK COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CWA FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS LOW PRESSURE
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES ENE. WE/LL HAVE CHC POPS
BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CARRY THAT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT MOVING THE LOW TO
ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS HIGHER QPF VS THE GFS BUT BOTH
SHOW SHOWERS. WE/LL LIKELY HAVE TO INCREASE POPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK IF THE TREND CONTINUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THROUGH 03Z...THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD LOOKS
MAINLY DRY. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER THIS EVENING WILL BE AT
KAZO...KBTL AND KJXN.
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO STRATUS FILLING IN IN THE WAKE OF THE
PRECIPITATION. EXPECTATION IS THAT A BAND OF LOWER CEILINGS WILL
PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z...BUT WITH SOME
CLEARING POSSIBLE IT MAY DEVELOP OVERHEAD AS WELL. BOTTOM LINE IS
WE ARE EXPECTING AT LEAST MVFR AND MORE LIKELY IFR FROM ABOUT 06Z
THROUGH 15Z OR SO AT MOST TAF SITES.
IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR THE QUICKEST THURSDAY AT THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES AND LINGER A BIT LONGER AT THE I94 TAF SITES. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WE SHOULD BE VFR OR TRENDING VFR AT ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TONIGHT SHIFTING TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG...WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN BLO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
RIVERS ARE RUNNING WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS AND NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER... THE GRAND AND MUSKEGON RIVERS ARE
BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RISE DUE TO THE RAIN FROM TUESDAY AND TODAY.
ONLY THE ROGUE RIVER AT ROCKFORD LOOKS LIKE IT MAY RISE TO NEAR
BANKFULL... AND THAT WOULD BE TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD ADD LITTLE ADDITIONAL RISE TO THE RIVERS. THURSDAY
MIGHT BE A DRY DAY... BUT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY COULD BRING MORE POINTS UP TO NEAR BANKFULL. RIVER FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. MINOR AREAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE
HEAVY RAIN IN THE THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MIZ043>045-
050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...OSTUNO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
345 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHT/S AND THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION HAS
PASSED EAST. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...RISING 5H RIDGE HGTS AND ASSOC
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND Q-VECT DIVERGENCE FROM THE WEST LED TO
CLEARING SKIES OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AND OVER
MUCH OF THE EAST HALF THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING 850 MB TEMPS OF 16-17C
TO THE SFC YIELDED INLAND HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST HALF OF UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON. LAKE BREEZES HAVE
KEPT TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE SHORELINES...GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
MODIFIED RUC SNDGS OVER SCNTRL UPPER MI FOR 86/59 YIELD AROUND 800
J/KG. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY PERHAPS SOME CONVECTION COULD BE
INITIATED ALONG DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER SCNTRL WI SO
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS INTO THE EVENING HRS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER ERN NE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SRN/CNTRL
WI TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT. THIS SHORTWAVE WORKING ON
AN ENVIRONMENT OF 1500-2500 J/KG WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER AROUND OF
CONVECTION ACROSS WI INTO LOWER MI TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
NRN FRINGE OF THIS CONVECTION MAY BRUSH SCNTRL UPR MI MAINLY SRN MNM
COUNTY WITH SOME SHRA/TSRA WHERE THERE REMAINS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS TONIGHT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY BUT BEST CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH CLOSER TO
WARM FRONT AND BETTER INSTABILITY.
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NRN PLAINS RIDGE INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW SFC RDGG FM HUDSON BAY HIGH TO WORK INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THIS SHOULD ENSURE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS FROM UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
INLAND WITH COOLER 60S TO LOWER 70S READINGS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORELINES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
TWO UPPER TROUGHS WILL BE SURROUNDING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
(ONE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE OTHER FAR NORTHERN QUEBEC)
TO START THE PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE UPPER TROUGHS. OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA...STRETCHING FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO JUST WEST OF HUDSON BAY. A HUDSON BAY HIGH
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE AND STRETCHING A SURFACE RIDGE
SOUTH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE HURON. THIS UPPER AND
SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA TO SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THAT
TIME. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THAT ARE RIGHT ALONG
THE WISCONSIN BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...JUST
IN CASE CONVECTION THAT FIRES CLOSER TO THE BETTER WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN MINNESOTA BRUSHES THAT AREA AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE HUDSON BAY HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW TO TRY AND HOLD OFF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY WILL COME OVER THE FAR WEST TOWARDS THE LATER PART OF
THE AFTERNOON...AS THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN
MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY. WITH PROPAGATION VECTORS POINTING TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WOULD EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION IN THAT AREA TO MOVE OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
THURSDAY EVENING. THOSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD CONTINUE TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AIDED BY THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS (MARGINAL INSTABILITY
DUE TO WEAKENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES) OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY
(ESPECIALLY WEST/CENTRAL IN THE MORNING). WITH THE BROAD/WEAKENING
WAA CONTINUING EAST LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT A PERIOD OF NO PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST MERGES WITH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH.
THIS MERGING OF THE UPPER TROUGHS WILL PULL THE LEFT OVER UPPER
WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE
MERGING OF THE TROUGHS AND HOW QUICKLY IT SWEEPS THROUGH... BUT IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
AND PRODUCE CLEARING SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
ALSO NEED TO POINT OUT THAT THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY AND
A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING AND RH VALUES FALLING
TOWARDS 20-25 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. LIGHT
RAINS IN THAT AREA DURING THE LAST 2 DAYS HAS IMPROVED FFMC
VALUES...BUT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD ALLOW THE
FINE FUELS TO DRY BACK OUT BY THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...WIND
GUSTS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 10-20MPH RANGE ON THURSDAY
AND LIMIT THE WILDFIRE CONCERNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD AS LOW-LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY UNDER DOMINANT HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
LINGERING HIGH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA WILL WARRANT MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG OVER THE WEST INTO WEDNESDAY AND AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. SHIP REPORTS AND WEB CAMS CONFIRM THAT MUCH
OF THE FOG OVER THE EAST HALF IS DENSE SO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH WED MORNING.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WILL BE SLOWLY
REPLACED BY A RIDGE THIS EVENING...EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. LIGHT WINDS WILL
BECOME NE...AND FUNNEL OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-25KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
NORTH DAKOTA APPROACHES NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BRINGING THE RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ248>251-
265>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
330 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
WITH BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE E HALF OF THE CONUS. SHORTWAVE
THAT EJECTED FROM THE WRN TROF LED TO THE EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
HAS STRENGTHENED FROM THE CONVECTION AND IS NOW MOVING ACROSS NRN
WI. THE ASSOCIATED NRN END OF MCS IS MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL UPPER MI
TOWARD ERN UPPER MI ATTM. TO THE N...A MID LEVEL LOW IS OVER NRN
ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED ILL-DEFINED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE
NEAR THE N END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
MUCH OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS LAGGING A BIT BEHIND REALITY
WITH THE MCS. LARGELY UTILIZED RADAR TRENDS...BUT INCORPORTATED SOME
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE TO SHIFT ONGOING SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS ENE THIS
MORNING. BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD EXIT THE ERN FCST AREA AROUND MID
MORNING IF NOT SOONER. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SHRA...
CLOUDS WILL THIN TODAY AND A LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZE FORMATION. LAKE BREEZE MAY PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION LATER IN THE AFTN TOWARD THE WI BORDER AFTER STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. STILL...WITH HEIGHT
RISES THRU THE DAY...IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED. THE NAM/GFS SHOW MLCAPES ACROSS THE INTERIOR W HALF OF
UPPER MI INCREASING TO 1000-2000J/KG THIS AFTN. HOURLY RUC13 RUNS
ARE MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH MLCAPE IN THE 200-350J/KG RANGE
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. THESE LOWER MLCAPES ARE DUE TO MIXED LAYER
DWPTS BEING 5-10F LOWER THAN THE NAM AND GFS. PREFER THESE LOWER
VALUES GIVEN THE OVERALL LIGHT WIND FIELDS TODAY THAT WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE S. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WHICH IS STILL CONTINUING WELL TO THE S IN
IA/SRN WI/NRN IL WILL KEEP BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY HELD UP WELL TO
THE S OF HERE.
IF ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN TOWARD THE WI BORDER...THE
PCPN MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING HRS. OTHERWISE...
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION AND LIKELY MCS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM WRN TROF. GIVEN HOW FAR S THE BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY...BELIEVE NRN END OF CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY SHORTWAVE
MAY STAY COMPLETELY S OF UPPER MI. THOUGHT ABOUT REMOVING POPS
COMPLETLY AFTER ANY EARLY EVENING ISOLD CONVECTION...BUT OPTED TO
JUST TRIM SCHC/CHC POPS BACK CLOSER TO THE WI/MI BORDER AS EVERY
AVBL MODEL SHOWS SOME CONVECTION CROSSING THE BORDER TONIGHT.
PERHAPS THIS NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IS SOMEWHAT TIED TO ILL-DEFINED
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY N OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DRIFT S ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES TODAY/TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF BUILDING HUDSON BAY SFC HIGH
PRES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
TWO UPPER TROUGHS WILL BE SURROUNDING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
(ONE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE OTHER FAR NORTHERN QUEBEC)
TO START THE PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE UPPER TROUGHS. OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA...STRETCHING FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO JUST WEST OF HUDSON BAY. A HUDSON BAY HIGH
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE AND STRETCHING A SURFACE RIDGE
SOUTH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE HURON. THIS UPPER AND
SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA TO SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THAT
TIME. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THAT ARE RIGHT ALONG
THE WISCONSIN BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...JUST
IN CASE CONVECTION THAT FIRES CLOSER TO THE BETTER WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN MINNESOTA BRUSHES THAT AREA AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE HUDSON BAY HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW TO TRY AND HOLD OFF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY WILL COME OVER THE FAR WEST TOWARDS THE LATER PART OF
THE AFTERNOON...AS THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN
MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY. WITH PROPAGATION VECTORS POINTING TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WOULD EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION IN THAT AREA TO MOVE OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
THURSDAY EVENING. THOSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD CONTINUE TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AIDED BY THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS (MARGINAL INSTABILITY
DUE TO WEAKENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES) OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY
(ESPECIALLY WEST/CENTRAL IN THE MORNING). WITH THE BROAD/WEAKENING
WAA CONTINUING EAST LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT A PERIOD OF NO PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST MERGES WITH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH.
THIS MERGING OF THE UPPER TROUGHS WILL PULL THE LEFT OVER UPPER
WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE
MERGING OF THE TROUGHS AND HOW QUICKLY IT SWEEPS THROUGH... BUT IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
AND PRODUCE CLEARING SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
ALSO NEED TO POINT OUT THAT THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY AND
A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING AND RH VALUES FALLING
TOWARDS 20-25 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. LIGHT
RAINS IN THAT AREA DURING THE LAST 2 DAYS HAS IMPROVED FFMC
VALUES...BUT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD ALLOW THE
FINE FUELS TO DRY BACK OUT BY THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...WIND
GUSTS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 10-20MPH RANGE ON THURSDAY
AND LIMIT THE WILDFIRE CONCERNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD AS LOW-LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY UNDER DOMINANT HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
PATCHY FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. 5SM HAS ALREADY
BEEN REPORTED JUST N OF ONTONAGON EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ONLY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...THAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED
BY A RIDGE THIS EVENING...EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
NE...AND FUNNEL OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH GUSTS OF
20-25KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
NORTH DAKOTA APPROACHES NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BRINGING THE RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
119 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
WITH BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE E HALF OF THE CONUS. SHORTWAVE
THAT EJECTED FROM THE WRN TROF LED TO THE EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
HAS STRENGTHENED FROM THE CONVECTION AND IS NOW MOVING ACROSS NRN
WI. THE ASSOCIATED NRN END OF MCS IS MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL UPPER MI
TOWARD ERN UPPER MI ATTM. TO THE N...A MID LEVEL LOW IS OVER NRN
ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED ILL-DEFINED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE
NEAR THE N END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
MUCH OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS LAGGING A BIT BEHIND REALITY
WITH THE MCS. LARGELY UTILIZED RADAR TRENDS...BUT INCORPORTATED SOME
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE TO SHIFT ONGOING SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS ENE THIS
MORNING. BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD EXIT THE ERN FCST AREA AROUND MID
MORNING IF NOT SOONER. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SHRA...
CLOUDS WILL THIN TODAY AND A LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZE FORMATION. LAKE BREEZE MAY PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION LATER IN THE AFTN TOWARD THE WI BORDER AFTER STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. STILL...WITH HEIGHT
RISES THRU THE DAY...IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED. THE NAM/GFS SHOW MLCAPES ACROSS THE INTERIOR W HALF OF
UPPER MI INCREASING TO 1000-2000J/KG THIS AFTN. HOURLY RUC13 RUNS
ARE MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH MLCAPE IN THE 200-350J/KG RANGE
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. THESE LOWER MLCAPES ARE DUE TO MIXED LAYER
DWPTS BEING 5-10F LOWER THAN THE NAM AND GFS. PREFER THESE LOWER
VALUES GIVEN THE OVERALL LIGHT WIND FIELDS TODAY THAT WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE S. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WHICH IS STILL CONTINUING WELL TO THE S IN
IA/SRN WI/NRN IL WILL KEEP BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY HELD UP WELL TO
THE S OF HERE.
IF ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN TOWARD THE WI BORDER...THE
PCPN MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING HRS. OTHERWISE...
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION AND LIKELY MCS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM WRN TROF. GIVEN HOW FAR S THE BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY...BELIEVE NRN END OF CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY SHORTWAVE
MAY STAY COMPLETELY S OF UPPER MI. THOUGHT ABOUT REMOVING POPS
COMPLETLY AFTER ANY EARLY EVENING ISOLD CONVECTION...BUT OPTED TO
JUST TRIM SCHC/CHC POPS BACK CLOSER TO THE WI/MI BORDER AS EVERY
AVBL MODEL SHOWS SOME CONVECTION CROSSING THE BORDER TONIGHT.
PERHAPS THIS NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IS SOMEWHAT TIED TO ILL-DEFINED
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY N OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DRIFT S ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES TODAY/TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF BUILDING HUDSON BAY SFC HIGH
PRES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 555 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
THE 500MB RIDGE JUST TO OUR W WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SFC HIGH OVER
HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE RAIN FREE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE DRIEST AIR
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES FALLING AS LOW AS 25 TO 35 PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...WHICH HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
MORNING FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. THE APPROACHING LOW TO THE W SHOULD
HELP BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE CWA...BUT JUST HOW FAR E THEY WILL GET
DURING THE DAY IS IN QUESTION. CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THEM OVER MAINLY
W UPPER MI THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...AND SLOWLY SWEEP THEM E ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY EXITS E AND A LOW NEARS FROM
S CANADA AND THE N PLAINS. WILL LIKELY NEED TO DIMINISH POPS A BIT
MORE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE LATEST/SLOWER ECMWF AND
CANADIAN RUNS ARE CORRECT...AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW SLIDING IN FROM
THE NW.
THE MAIN 500MB LOW LOOKS TO SINK ESE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED TO TREND BACK ON POPS
FOR WHILE FCST POPS ARE IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT A SOAKING WEEKEND IS NOT ANTICIPATED. DUE THE
LOWER CONFIDENCE OF WHEN AND WHERE SHOWERS /AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS/ COULD DEVELOP...A BROAD 20-40 PERCENT SEEMS
REASONABLE FOR NOW. WILL NEED TO DO SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE
PERIODS AS THE TIME NEARS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD AS LOW-LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY UNDER DOMINANT HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
PATCHY FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. 5SM HAS ALREADY
BEEN REPORTED JUST N OF ONTONAGON EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ONLY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...THAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED
BY A RIDGE THIS EVENING...EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
NE...AND FUNNEL OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH GUSTS OF
20-25KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
NORTH DAKOTA APPROACHES NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BRINGING THE RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
753 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
WITH BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE E HALF OF THE CONUS. SHORTWAVE
THAT EJECTED FROM THE WRN TROF LED TO THE EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
HAS STRENGTHENED FROM THE CONVECTION AND IS NOW MOVING ACROSS NRN
WI. THE ASSOCIATED NRN END OF MCS IS MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL UPPER MI
TOWARD ERN UPPER MI ATTM. TO THE N...A MID LEVEL LOW IS OVER NRN
ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED ILL-DEFINED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE
NEAR THE N END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
MUCH OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS LAGGING A BIT BEHIND REALITY
WITH THE MCS. LARGELY UTILIZED RADAR TRENDS...BUT INCORPORTATED SOME
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE TO SHIFT ONGOING SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS ENE THIS
MORNING. BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD EXIT THE ERN FCST AREA AROUND MID
MORNING IF NOT SOONER. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SHRA...
CLOUDS WILL THIN TODAY AND A LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZE FORMATION. LAKE BREEZE MAY PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION LATER IN THE AFTN TOWARD THE WI BORDER AFTER STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. STILL...WITH HEIGHT
RISES THRU THE DAY...IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED. THE NAM/GFS SHOW MLCAPES ACROSS THE INTERIOR W HALF OF
UPPER MI INCREASING TO 1000-2000J/KG THIS AFTN. HOURLY RUC13 RUNS
ARE MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH MLCAPE IN THE 200-350J/KG RANGE
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. THESE LOWER MLCAPES ARE DUE TO MIXED LAYER
DWPTS BEING 5-10F LOWER THAN THE NAM AND GFS. PREFER THESE LOWER
VALUES GIVEN THE OVERALL LIGHT WIND FIELDS TODAY THAT WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE S. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WHICH IS STILL CONTINUING WELL TO THE S IN
IA/SRN WI/NRN IL WILL KEEP BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY HELD UP WELL TO
THE S OF HERE.
IF ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN TOWARD THE WI BORDER...THE
PCPN MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING HRS. OTHERWISE...
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION AND LIKELY MCS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM WRN TROF. GIVEN HOW FAR S THE BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY...BELIEVE NRN END OF CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY SHORTWAVE
MAY STAY COMPLETELY S OF UPPER MI. THOUGHT ABOUT REMOVING POPS
COMPLETLY AFTER ANY EARLY EVENING ISOLD CONVECTION...BUT OPTED TO
JUST TRIM SCHC/CHC POPS BACK CLOSER TO THE WI/MI BORDER AS EVERY
AVBL MODEL SHOWS SOME CONVECTION CROSSING THE BORDER TONIGHT.
PERHAPS THIS NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IS SOMEWHAT TIED TO ILL-DEFINED
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY N OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DRIFT S ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES TODAY/TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF BUILDING HUDSON BAY SFC HIGH
PRES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 555 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
THE 500MB RIDGE JUST TO OUR W WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SFC HIGH OVER
HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE RAIN FREE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE DRIEST AIR
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES FALLING AS LOW AS 25 TO 35 PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...WHICH HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
MORNING FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. THE APPROACHING LOW TO THE W SHOULD
HELP BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE CWA...BUT JUST HOW FAR E THEY WILL GET
DURING THE DAY IS IN QUESTION. CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THEM OVER MAINLY
W UPPER MI THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...AND SLOWLY SWEEP THEM E ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY EXITS E AND A LOW NEARS FROM
S CANADA AND THE N PLAINS. WILL LIKELY NEED TO DIMINISH POPS A BIT
MORE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE LATEST/SLOWER ECMWF AND
CANADIAN RUNS ARE CORRECT...AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW SLIDING IN FROM
THE NW.
THE MAIN 500MB LOW LOOKS TO SINK ESE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED TO TREND BACK ON POPS
FOR WHILE FCST POPS ARE IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT A SOAKING WEEKEND IS NOT ANTICIPATED. DUE THE
LOWER CONFIDENCE OF WHEN AND WHERE SHOWERS /AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS/ COULD DEVELOP...A BROAD 20-40 PERCENT SEEMS
REASONABLE FOR NOW. WILL NEED TO DO SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE
PERIODS AS THE TIME NEARS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
SHRA HAVE RECENTLY ENDED AT KSAW. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROVIDED BY THE
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS FOR A COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING WORKS TO SCT OUT CLOUDS OR RAISE CLOUD BASES.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU
THIS FCST PERIOD AS LOW-LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
PATCHY FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. 5SM HAS ALREADY
BEEN REPORTED JUST N OF ONTONAGON EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ONLY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...THAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED
BY A RIDGE THIS EVENING...EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
NE...AND FUNNEL OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH GUSTS OF
20-25KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
NORTH DAKOTA APPROACHES NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BRINGING THE RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
601 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
WITH BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE E HALF OF THE CONUS. SHORTWAVE
THAT EJECTED FROM THE WRN TROF LED TO THE EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
HAS STRENGTHENED FROM THE CONVECTION AND IS NOW MOVING ACROSS NRN
WI. THE ASSOCIATED NRN END OF MCS IS MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL UPPER MI
TOWARD ERN UPPER MI ATTM. TO THE N...A MID LEVEL LOW IS OVER NRN
ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED ILL-DEFINED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE
NEAR THE N END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
MUCH OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS LAGGING A BIT BEHIND REALITY
WITH THE MCS. LARGELY UTILIZED RADAR TRENDS...BUT INCORPORTATED SOME
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE TO SHIFT ONGOING SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS ENE THIS
MORNING. BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD EXIT THE ERN FCST AREA AROUND MID
MORNING IF NOT SOONER. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SHRA...
CLOUDS WILL THIN TODAY AND A LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZE FORMATION. LAKE BREEZE MAY PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION LATER IN THE AFTN TOWARD THE WI BORDER AFTER STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. STILL...WITH HEIGHT
RISES THRU THE DAY...IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED. THE NAM/GFS SHOW MLCAPES ACROSS THE INTERIOR W HALF OF
UPPER MI INCREASING TO 1000-2000J/KG THIS AFTN. HOURLY RUC13 RUNS
ARE MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH MLCAPE IN THE 200-350J/KG RANGE
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. THESE LOWER MLCAPES ARE DUE TO MIXED LAYER
DWPTS BEING 5-10F LOWER THAN THE NAM AND GFS. PREFER THESE LOWER
VALUES GIVEN THE OVERALL LIGHT WIND FIELDS TODAY THAT WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE S. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WHICH IS STILL CONTINUING WELL TO THE S IN
IA/SRN WI/NRN IL WILL KEEP BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY HELD UP WELL TO
THE S OF HERE.
IF ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN TOWARD THE WI BORDER...THE
PCPN MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING HRS. OTHERWISE...
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION AND LIKELY MCS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM WRN TROF. GIVEN HOW FAR S THE BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY...BELIEVE NRN END OF CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY SHORTWAVE
MAY STAY COMPLETELY S OF UPPER MI. THOUGHT ABOUT REMOVING POPS
COMPLETLY AFTER ANY EARLY EVENING ISOLD CONVECTION...BUT OPTED TO
JUST TRIM SCHC/CHC POPS BACK CLOSER TO THE WI/MI BORDER AS EVERY
AVBL MODEL SHOWS SOME CONVECTION CROSSING THE BORDER TONIGHT.
PERHAPS THIS NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IS SOMEWHAT TIED TO ILL-DEFINED
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY N OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DRIFT S ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES TODAY/TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF BUILDING HUDSON BAY SFC HIGH
PRES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 555 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
THE 500MB RIDGE JUST TO OUR W WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SFC HIGH OVER
HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE RAIN FREE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE DRIEST AIR
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES FALLING AS LOW AS 25 TO 35 PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...WHICH HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
MORNING FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. THE APPROACHING LOW TO THE W SHOULD
HELP BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE CWA...BUT JUST HOW FAR E THEY WILL GET
DURING THE DAY IS IN QUESTION. CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THEM OVER MAINLY
W UPPER MI THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...AND SLOWLY SWEEP THEM E ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY EXITS E AND A LOW NEARS FROM
S CANADA AND THE N PLAINS. WILL LIKELY NEED TO DIMINISH POPS A BIT
MORE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE LATEST/SLOWER ECMWF AND
CANADIAN RUNS ARE CORRECT...AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW SLIDING IN FROM
THE NW.
THE MAIN 500MB LOW LOOKS TO SINK ESE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED TO TREND BACK ON POPS
FOR WHILE FCST POPS ARE IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT A SOAKING WEEKEND IS NOT ANTICIPATED. DUE THE
LOWER CONFIDENCE OF WHEN AND WHERE SHOWERS /AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS/ COULD DEVELOP...A BROAD 20-40 PERCENT SEEMS
REASONABLE FOR NOW. WILL NEED TO DO SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE
PERIODS AS THE TIME NEARS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE
SOUTH WITH MAINLY JUST LIGHTER SHOWERS BRUSHING UPPER MICHIGAN AS A
DISTURBANCE EDGES TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SINCE MAINLY JUST LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THOUGH
SOME HIGHER END MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE AT KSAW.
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY HEAVY ENOUGH PCPN WILL DEVELOP TO LOWER CIGS
TOWARD IFR IS LOW. WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...EXPECT ALL
TERMINALS TO BE VFR BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
PATCHY FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. 5SM HAS ALREADY
BEEN REPORTED JUST N OF ONTONAGON EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ONLY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...THAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED
BY A RIDGE THIS EVENING...EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
NE...AND FUNNEL OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH GUSTS OF
20-25KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
NORTH DAKOTA APPROACHES NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BRINGING THE RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
542 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
WITH BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE E HALF OF THE CONUS. SHORTWAVE
THAT EJECTED FROM THE WRN TROF LED TO THE EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
HAS STRENGTHENED FROM THE CONVECTION AND IS NOW MOVING ACROSS NRN
WI. THE ASSOCIATED NRN END OF MCS IS MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL UPPER MI
TOWARD ERN UPPER MI ATTM. TO THE N...A MID LEVEL LOW IS OVER NRN
ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED ILL-DEFINED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE
NEAR THE N END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
MUCH OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS LAGGING A BIT BEHIND REALITY
WITH THE MCS. LARGELY UTILIZED RADAR TRENDS...BUT INCORPORTATED SOME
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE TO SHIFT ONGOING SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS ENE THIS
MORNING. BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD EXIT THE ERN FCST AREA AROUND MID
MORNING IF NOT SOONER. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SHRA...
CLOUDS WILL THIN TODAY AND A LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZE FORMATION. LAKE BREEZE MAY PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION LATER IN THE AFTN TOWARD THE WI BORDER AFTER STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. STILL...WITH HEIGHT
RISES THRU THE DAY...IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED. THE NAM/GFS SHOW MLCAPES ACROSS THE INTERIOR W HALF OF
UPPER MI INCREASING TO 1000-2000J/KG THIS AFTN. HOURLY RUC13 RUNS
ARE MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH MLCAPE IN THE 200-350J/KG RANGE
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. THESE LOWER MLCAPES ARE DUE TO MIXED LAYER
DWPTS BEING 5-10F LOWER THAN THE NAM AND GFS. PREFER THESE LOWER
VALUES GIVEN THE OVERALL LIGHT WIND FIELDS TODAY THAT WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE S. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WHICH IS STILL CONTINUING WELL TO THE S IN
IA/SRN WI/NRN IL WILL KEEP BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY HELD UP WELL TO
THE S OF HERE.
IF ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN TOWARD THE WI BORDER...THE
PCPN MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING HRS. OTHERWISE...
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION AND LIKELY MCS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM WRN TROF. GIVEN HOW FAR S THE BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY...BELIEVE NRN END OF CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY SHORTWAVE
MAY STAY COMPLETELY S OF UPPER MI. THOUGHT ABOUT REMOVING POPS
COMPLETLY AFTER ANY EARLY EVENING ISOLD CONVECTION...BUT OPTED TO
JUST TRIM SCHC/CHC POPS BACK CLOSER TO THE WI/MI BORDER AS EVERY
AVBL MODEL SHOWS SOME CONVECTION CROSSING THE BORDER TONIGHT.
PERHAPS THIS NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IS SOMEWHAT TIED TO ILL-DEFINED
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY N OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DRIFT S ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES TODAY/TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF BUILDING HUDSON BAY SFC HIGH
PRES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
PRELIM DISCUSSION
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE WISCONSIN BORDER...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE RAIN FREE DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. THE DRIEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING AS LOW AS 25 TO 35
PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES THURSDAY
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...WHICH HAS
BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE MORNING FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
EXPECT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EXIT EAST FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE
SOUTH WITH MAINLY JUST LIGHTER SHOWERS BRUSHING UPPER MICHIGAN AS A
DISTURBANCE EDGES TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SINCE MAINLY JUST LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THOUGH
SOME HIGHER END MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE AT KSAW.
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY HEAVY ENOUGH PCPN WILL DEVELOP TO LOWER CIGS
TOWARD IFR IS LOW. WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...EXPECT ALL
TERMINALS TO BE VFR BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
PATCHY FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. 5SM HAS ALREADY
BEEN REPORTED JUST N OF ONTONAGON EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ONLY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...THAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED
BY A RIDGE THIS EVENING...EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
NE...AND FUNNEL OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH GUSTS OF
20-25KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
NORTH DAKOTA APPROACHES NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BRINGING THE RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
517 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NE THROUGH NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH TRIGGERED CONVECTION ACROSS
ERN NE EARLIER THIS MORNING AND NOW HAS CONVECTION FOCUSED AT
PRESENT OVER ERN SD AND SW MN AT NOSE OF ASSOC 40-45 KT LOW-LVL
JET...BEST MLCAPE GRADIENT OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8.5C/KM. HIGHER LAPSE RATES TO 7C/KM FARTHER NORTH ALSO
SUPPORTING CLUSTER OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER NRN MN INTO FAR NRN WI.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY SNEAK INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHRA...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT
THIS CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DIE OFF AS IT MOVES AWAY
FROM THE BETTER INSTABILITY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
FCST FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH CONVECTION WHICH HAS FORMED OVER SRN MN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WHERE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED INTO TUESDAY. AS FAR AS
CONVECTION TONIGHT...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 12Z
REGIONAL GEM AND GFS AND AWAY FROM THE 12Z NAM WHICH BRINGS
STRONGEST CONVECTION TOO FAR NORTH INTO UPPER MI GIVEN MORE
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT. FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE 12Z
REGIONAL GEM AND GFS...WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH IDEA OF PREV FCST
WITH MINOR TWEAKS KEEPING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS GENERALLY OVER
THE SCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHERE
THIS PORTION OF CWA WILL BE ON NRN FRINGE OF MCS ACTIVITY MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WITH HIGHEST MLCAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG AND
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES 8-9C/KM FCST TO STAY WELL SOUTH CLOSER TO
WARM FRONT WOULD EXPECT ANY SVR STORMS TO STAY SOUTH OF UPPER MI
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF WARM FRONT AS DEPICTED ON
THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK WHERE THE SLIGHT RISK LINE MAKES IT JUST
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF GRB AND WAUSAW. BEST CHC OF TSRA TONIGHT WILL BE
OVER SCNTRL UPPER MI CLOSER TO BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WAKE LOW
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AS NRN FRINGE OF MCS MOVES ACROSS SCNTRL
AND SE FCST AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS OVER THESE AREAS IN
THE WAKE OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.
MODELS SHOW CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING MCS EXITING THE ERN FCST AREA
BY LATE TUE MORNING. MAIN QUESTION FOR TUE WILL BE CHCS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE WI BDR. WILL TREND TOWARD DRIER FCST
FOR TUE PER REGIONAL GEM AND NAM WHICH KEEPS DEVELOPING AFTERNOON
CONVECTION GENERALLY SOUTH OF CWA. SINCE THE 12Z GFS IS THE ONLY
MODEL TO BRING THE WARM FRONT NORTH INTO UPPER MI WILL TEND TO SHY
AWAY FROM ITS FARTHER NORTH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH 8H TEMPS IN
THE 14-16C...EXPECT INLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S INTERIOR
WEST/SCNTRL TO UPPER 70S EAST...WITH COOLER 60S TEMPS ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES SHORELINES FROM DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
PRELIM DISCUSSION
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE WISCONSIN BORDER...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE RAIN FREE DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. THE DRIEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING AS LOW AS 25 TO 35
PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES THURSDAY
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...WHICH HAS
BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE MORNING FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
EXPECT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EXIT EAST FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE
SOUTH WITH MAINLY JUST LIGHTER SHOWERS BRUSHING UPPER MICHIGAN AS A
DISTURBANCE EDGES TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SINCE MAINLY JUST LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THOUGH
SOME HIGHER END MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE AT KSAW.
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY HEAVY ENOUGH PCPN WILL DEVELOP TO LOWER CIGS
TOWARD IFR IS LOW. WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...EXPECT ALL
TERMINALS TO BE VFR BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
PATCHY FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. 5SM HAS ALREADY
BEEN REPORTED JUST N OF ONTONAGON EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ONLY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...THAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED
BY A RIDGE THIS EVENING...EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
NE...AND FUNNEL OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH GUSTS OF
20-25KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
NORTH DAKOTA APPROACHES NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BRINGING THE RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
504 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NE THROUGH NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH TRIGGERED CONVECTION ACROSS
ERN NE EARLIER THIS MORNING AND NOW HAS CONVECTION FOCUSED AT
PRESENT OVER ERN SD AND SW MN AT NOSE OF ASSOC 40-45 KT LOW-LVL
JET...BEST MLCAPE GRADIENT OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8.5C/KM. HIGHER LAPSE RATES TO 7C/KM FARTHER NORTH ALSO
SUPPORTING CLUSTER OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER NRN MN INTO FAR NRN WI.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY SNEAK INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHRA...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT
THIS CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DIE OFF AS IT MOVES AWAY
FROM THE BETTER INSTABILITY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
FCST FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH CONVECTION WHICH HAS FORMED OVER SRN MN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WHERE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED INTO TUESDAY. AS FAR AS
CONVECTION TONIGHT...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 12Z
REGIONAL GEM AND GFS AND AWAY FROM THE 12Z NAM WHICH BRINGS
STRONGEST CONVECTION TOO FAR NORTH INTO UPPER MI GIVEN MORE
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT. FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE 12Z
REGIONAL GEM AND GFS...WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH IDEA OF PREV FCST
WITH MINOR TWEAKS KEEPING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS GENERALLY OVER
THE SCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHERE
THIS PORTION OF CWA WILL BE ON NRN FRINGE OF MCS ACTIVITY MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WITH HIGHEST MLCAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG AND
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES 8-9C/KM FCST TO STAY WELL SOUTH CLOSER TO
WARM FRONT WOULD EXPECT ANY SVR STORMS TO STAY SOUTH OF UPPER MI
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF WARM FRONT AS DEPICTED ON
THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK WHERE THE SLIGHT RISK LINE MAKES IT JUST
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF GRB AND WAUSAW. BEST CHC OF TSRA TONIGHT WILL BE
OVER SCNTRL UPPER MI CLOSER TO BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WAKE LOW
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AS NRN FRINGE OF MCS MOVES ACROSS SCNTRL
AND SE FCST AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS OVER THESE AREAS IN
THE WAKE OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.
MODELS SHOW CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING MCS EXITING THE ERN FCST AREA
BY LATE TUE MORNING. MAIN QUESTION FOR TUE WILL BE CHCS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE WI BDR. WILL TREND TOWARD DRIER FCST
FOR TUE PER REGIONAL GEM AND NAM WHICH KEEPS DEVELOPING AFTERNOON
CONVECTION GENERALLY SOUTH OF CWA. SINCE THE 12Z GFS IS THE ONLY
MODEL TO BRING THE WARM FRONT NORTH INTO UPPER MI WILL TEND TO SHY
AWAY FROM ITS FARTHER NORTH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH 8H TEMPS IN
THE 14-16C...EXPECT INLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S INTERIOR
WEST/SCNTRL TO UPPER 70S EAST...WITH COOLER 60S TEMPS ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES SHORELINES FROM DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
PRELIM DISCUSSION
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE WISCONSIN BORDER...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE RAIN FREE DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. THE DRIEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING AS LOW AS 25 TO 35
PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES THURSDAY
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...WHICH HAS
BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE MORNING FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
EXPECT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EXIT EAST FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE
SOUTH WITH MAINLY JUST LIGHTER SHOWERS BRUSHING UPPER MICHIGAN AS A
DISTURBANCE EDGES TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SINCE MAINLY JUST LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THOUGH
SOME HIGHER END MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE AT KSAW.
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY HEAVY ENOUGH PCPN WILL DEVELOP TO LOWER CIGS
TOWARD IFR IS LOW. WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...EXPECT ALL
TERMINALS TO BE VFR BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
WEAK PRES GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT THRU
TUE. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSTMS
PASSING THRU WI AND AT LEAST PARTS OF UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT/TUE
MORNING...THERE MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS FOR A TIME LATE
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. FROM LATE TUE THRU FRI...LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
BECOME SITUATED BTWN A HUDSON BAY HIGH AND A LOW PRES TROF SLOWLY
ADVANCING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS
LATER TUE THRU FRI. WHILE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER
20KT...THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
WRN PART OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MN N SHORE DUE TO
COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. OTHERWISE...WINDS OVERALL COULD BE
STRONGER DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRES AND LOW PRES.
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND LINGERING HIGHER DEWPOINTS
OVER THE AREA INTO WED...LOOK FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
143 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NE THROUGH NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH TRIGGERED CONVECTION ACROSS
ERN NE EARLIER THIS MORNING AND NOW HAS CONVECTION FOCUSED AT
PRESENT OVER ERN SD AND SW MN AT NOSE OF ASSOC 40-45 KT LOW-LVL
JET...BEST MLCAPE GRADIENT OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8.5C/KM. HIGHER LAPSE RATES TO 7C/KM FARTHER NORTH ALSO
SUPPORTING CLUSTER OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER NRN MN INTO FAR NRN WI.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY SNEAK INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHRA...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT
THIS CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DIE OFF AS IT MOVES AWAY
FROM THE BETTER INSTABILITY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
FCST FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH CONVECTION WHICH HAS FORMED OVER SRN MN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WHERE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED INTO TUESDAY. AS FAR AS
CONVECTION TONIGHT...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 12Z
REGIONAL GEM AND GFS AND AWAY FROM THE 12Z NAM WHICH BRINGS
STRONGEST CONVECTION TOO FAR NORTH INTO UPPER MI GIVEN MORE
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT. FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE 12Z
REGIONAL GEM AND GFS...WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH IDEA OF PREV FCST
WITH MINOR TWEAKS KEEPING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS GENERALLY OVER
THE SCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHERE
THIS PORTION OF CWA WILL BE ON NRN FRINGE OF MCS ACTIVITY MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WITH HIGHEST MLCAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG AND
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES 8-9C/KM FCST TO STAY WELL SOUTH CLOSER TO
WARM FRONT WOULD EXPECT ANY SVR STORMS TO STAY SOUTH OF UPPER MI
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF WARM FRONT AS DEPICTED ON
THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK WHERE THE SLIGHT RISK LINE MAKES IT JUST
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF GRB AND WAUSAW. BEST CHC OF TSRA TONIGHT WILL BE
OVER SCNTRL UPPER MI CLOSER TO BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WAKE LOW
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AS NRN FRINGE OF MCS MOVES ACROSS SCNTRL
AND SE FCST AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS OVER THESE AREAS IN
THE WAKE OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.
MODELS SHOW CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING MCS EXITING THE ERN FCST AREA
BY LATE TUE MORNING. MAIN QUESTION FOR TUE WILL BE CHCS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE WI BDR. WILL TREND TOWARD DRIER FCST
FOR TUE PER REGIONAL GEM AND NAM WHICH KEEPS DEVELOPING AFTERNOON
CONVECTION GENERALLY SOUTH OF CWA. SINCE THE 12Z GFS IS THE ONLY
MODEL TO BRING THE WARM FRONT NORTH INTO UPPER MI WILL TEND TO SHY
AWAY FROM ITS FARTHER NORTH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH 8H TEMPS IN
THE 14-16C...EXPECT INLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S INTERIOR
WEST/SCNTRL TO UPPER 70S EAST...WITH COOLER 60S TEMPS ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES SHORELINES FROM DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN QUEBEC...WHILE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
STRETCH FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO LAKE WINNIPEG. AT THE
SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN NORTHERN QUEBEC AND
ALSO IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH STRETCHING BETWEEN
THE TWO LOWS AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. TO THE
NORTH OF THE TROUGH...A HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER WESTERN HUDSON
BAY WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTH TO FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
HUDSON BAY HIGH AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTROL MUCH OF THE FORECAST
FOR THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MCS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST TRENDS SEEM TO BE FOR A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH TRACK THAN SHOWN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THAT SEEMS
REASONABLE. THAT MORE SOUTHERN IDEA WILL LIKELY POSITION THE TROUGH
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW DRY
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HUDSON BAY HIGH TO MOVE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. INDICATIONS ARE FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH OR DEVELOPING WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM
SIOUX FALLS THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND KICK OF ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
THIS BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...FEEL THAT MUCH OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS (LOW END CHANCES) POSITIONED ALONG THE
WISCONSIN BORDER AND SLIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF. WITH
PROPAGATION VECTORS INDICATING MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTHEAST...WOULD
THINK THAT AT MOST WE WOULD ONLY SEE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED STRATIFORM PRECIP.
WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE BOUNDARY STAYING TO THE SOUTH...THE
SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE HUDSON BAY WILL PUSH OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA AND LEAD TO DRY AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL FOLLOW THE SAME IDEA AS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP THE BEST POPS (LOW CHANCES) RIGHT ALONG THE
WISCONSIN BORDER...ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE OVERDONE (ESPECIALLY SINCE
THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES).
OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OR JUST HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP HIGHS COOLEST NEAR THE SHORELINE...WITH
INLAND VALUES IN THE 70S. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE EAST...THIS DRIER
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THE DRY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST 30
DAYS (GENERALLY UNDER 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL).
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE ROCKIES TO START THE PERIOD WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND THEN SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST WHILE MERGING WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN QUEBEC THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST...AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE CHANCE
POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TRACK. MODEL MUCAPE AND SHOWALTER VALUES
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...SO WOULD EXPECT THUNDER
CHANCES TO BE LIMITED AND WILL MATCH WITH THE POPS FOR NOW. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THIS UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL DEPART
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY/MONDAY...SO WILL FOLLOW A
GENERAL CONSENSUS OF CHANCE/SLIGHT POPS SUNDAY DIMINISHING BY
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE
SOUTH WITH MAINLY JUST LIGHTER SHOWERS BRUSHING UPPER MICHIGAN AS A
DISTURBANCE EDGES TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SINCE MAINLY JUST LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THOUGH
SOME HIGHER END MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE AT KSAW.
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY HEAVY ENOUGH PCPN WILL DEVELOP TO LOWER CIGS
TOWARD IFR IS LOW. WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...EXPECT ALL
TERMINALS TO BE VFR BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
WEAK PRES GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT THRU
TUE. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSTMS
PASSING THRU WI AND AT LEAST PARTS OF UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT/TUE
MORNING...THERE MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS FOR A TIME LATE
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. FROM LATE TUE THRU FRI...LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
BECOME SITUATED BTWN A HUDSON BAY HIGH AND A LOW PRES TROF SLOWLY
ADVANCING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS
LATER TUE THRU FRI. WHILE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER
20KT...THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
WRN PART OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MN N SHORE DUE TO
COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. OTHERWISE...WINDS OVERALL COULD BE
STRONGER DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRES AND LOW PRES.
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND LINGERING HIGHER DEWPOINTS
OVER THE AREA INTO WED...LOOK FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
939 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 906 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2014
Convection across northern IL this evening along and north of a
front. the NAM model tries to sag this front southward late
tonight as a surface ridge builds southward into the Great Lakes
region. The latest NAM model run appears too far south with its
QPF tonight. The latest HRRR keeps the convection just north and
northeast of our forecast area until 12z Thursday. Still think we
may have at least isolated showers/storms across northeast MO and
west central IL late tonight as additional convection continues to
develop further southward across eastern IA and northern IL. Low
temperatures tonight should be similar to last night, about 10
degrees above normal, with continued southerly winds and relatively
high surface dew points.
GKS
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2014
Convective trends are the primary concern for the short term. The
outflow boundary from last night`s MCS is becoming weaker and more
diffuse with time, think it extends from near Galesburg IL to near
Burlington IA northwest to near Washington IA. The airmass along
and south of the boundary is uncapped or nearly so, and is sporting
MLCAPE values of 3500 J/kg. It looks like the majority of the
convergence is north of our area, but there are a few cells which
are developing in our area back across southwest Illinois in an area
of agitated CU...possibly caused by southward propagating gravity
waves from earlier convection across Illinois. Expect these
isolated cells to gradually diminish as we lose diurnal heating, but
there may be some additional development along the outflow boundary
in southeast Iowa and west central Illinois. If strong enough
storms can form, and if they can get a sufficiently strong cold pool
to develop, they could produce a south-southwestward propagating
cluster of storms, riding the instability and low level jet into
northeast Missouri and the Quincy area. 700mb temperatures were +10
to +12 C this morning just south of the outflow boundary, with no
cooler air on the horizon, so would expect any storms that do form
to have a difficult time getting much further south than perhaps
Moberly, or Hannibal. With that much instability available, severe
storms are possible, but low level wind shear/helicity are lacking
so would expect the primary threat to be damaging wind and/or large
hail.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2014
Mass fields in the models are in generally good agreement through
the end of the week ejecting the cut off low currently camping out
over western Montana northeast into Manitoba or Saskatchewan by 00Z
Saturday. This will flatten out the upper level ridge and most
likely allow for a general increase in convection coverage
(primarily over central and northeast Missouri) Thursday and Friday
afternoon. Temperatures on Thursday and Friday should be similar to
what we`ve been experiencing the past few days, upper 80s and low
90s. The exception to this rule may be that afternoon convection
could locally suppress temperatures.
Convective trends continue to be a challenge out in the medium range
with the flow staying quasi-zonal. The GFS looks horribly
contaminated with grid-scale convective feedback. It generates
multiple small vortmaxes and omega bullseyes starting Saturday and
continuing through the end of the forecast period. The ECMWF looks
more reasonable with the quasi-zonal pattern giving way to a trof
moving across the mountains into the Great Plains Sunday night and
Monday. While I can`t rule out convection through the weekend, it
looks like the best chances for rain will hold off until early next
week. Temperatures will likely stay on the warm side of climatology
through the weekend, but cool slightly to near normal levels by
midweek as the trof moves into the area.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2014
VFR conditions are once again expected through the valid TAF
period. Went with a persistence forecast and kept TAFs mostly if
not all dry...with exception of KUIN left a vicinity group as they
will be a bit closer to front frontal boundary. Cannot rule out
airmass thunderstorms tomorrow either but with similar setup as
today and yesterday...i.e., high instability but little to no
upper air support...believe if anything does develop it will be
spotty at best. Actual cold front does not approach region until
after forecast period. Winds will remain out of the south/southwest.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions are once again expected through the valid TAF
period. Went with a persistence forecast and kept forecast dry.
Cannot rule out airmass thunderstorms tomorrow either but with
similar setup as today and yesterday...i.e., high instability but
little to no upper air support...believe if anything does develop
it will be spotty at best and would likely not affect the terminal. Actual
cold front does not approach region until after forecast period.
Winds will remain out of the south/southwest.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
848 PM MDT WED JUN 18 2014
.UPDATE...
MOST CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING THE CLOSER WE GET TO SUNSET...SO WE
REDUCED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING IN MOST AREAS. MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOUTHEASTERN MT WILL BE DRY ONCE THE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING SUBSIDE COMPLETELY. THAT
GUIDANCE INCLUDES THE LAST COUPLE HRRR SIMULATIONS AND EVEN THE 00
UTC NAM. THUS...WE CHOSE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AFTER 06 UTC IN
THE SHERIDAN...LAME DEER...BROADUS AND EKALAKA AREAS. WE GAVE SOME
CONSIDERATION TO DROPPING POPS COMPLETELY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MILES
CITY AND BAKER...BUT IN THE END CHOSE TO LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THOSE PLACES IN THE STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE 500-MB
LOW OBSERVED NEAR HAVRE ON EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGES. MOISTURE ON
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLANKS OF THAT LOW OVER WESTERN MT MAY WRAP
EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO WE ACTUALLY INCREASED POPS A BIT OVER
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT LIKE AT LIVINGSTON. WESTERLY...DOWNSLOPE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY LIMIT SHOWER COVERAGE SOMEWHAT THOUGH. SCHULTZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR THU AND FRI...
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS TO BE FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE FROM THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO BE PULLED
NORTHWARD WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
MONTANA WITH SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD OUT OF WYOMING AS DEWPOINTS ARE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER ACROSS OUR AREA THAN WHAT WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE STILL REMAINS ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND WEAK DYNAMICS TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF THE BORDER THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH
DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER FRIDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY BUT CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AS A RESULT OF MORE SUNSHINE
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S BUT STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH
AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
HOOLEY
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY EAST TOWARD THE COAST BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT SOME WEAK RIDGING FOR THE WEEKEND BUT SOME EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY ARRIVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FEW STRONGER DISTURBANCES COMBINED WITH A
DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IN GENERAL...AN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
ALTHOUGH NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL SEE ONE. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH READINGS IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY EXIST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY
IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT TONIGHT AND MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF A
LINE FROM KLVM TO KBIL...KMLS AND KBHK DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WE
EXPECT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THAT ACTIVITY ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MT TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS. SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/073 054/082 056/085 056/082 056/082 057/085 057/085
33/T 20/U 12/T 23/T 33/T 33/T 33/T
LVM 049/072 047/079 047/081 049/079 049/080 050/084 048/081
54/T 11/U 23/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 33/T
HDN 048/074 050/083 052/087 054/085 054/084 054/087 057/087
33/T 20/U 12/T 23/T 33/T 33/T 33/T
MLS 050/073 052/082 057/085 059/083 058/083 059/085 062/086
24/T 31/B 01/U 22/T 23/T 32/T 22/T
4BQ 048/072 051/081 053/084 057/081 055/081 056/084 057/085
23/T 21/U 02/T 23/T 33/T 32/T 21/B
BHK 047/070 050/078 054/082 055/079 055/078 057/081 059/085
23/T 32/W 12/T 22/T 23/T 32/T 21/B
SHR 042/073 047/080 050/084 053/082 053/082 054/083 055/083
23/T 11/U 02/T 23/T 33/T 34/T 43/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
906 AM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS FOR
MAINLY THE MORNING PERIOD. BATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
WERE SHIFTING NORTH OF BILLINGS NOW WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE SOUTH. HAVE SHIFTED CATEGORICAL
POPS NORTH OF BILLINGS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. PUSHED THE
SEVERE RISK SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST BASED ON SPC SLIGHT RISK. MOVED
THE RISK INTO TREASURE COUNTY AND FAR EASTERN BIG HORN COUNTY.
FARTHER WEST...CONVECTION WILL FORM BUT BE ON THE LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW SIDE...SO DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER FOR LOCATIONS
FROM BILLINGS WESTWARD. THAT BEING SAID...MAY HAVE SOME SMALL HAIL
IN STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG JET WRAPPING AROUND THE DEEP UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE STRONG FORCING FOR AGGRESSIVE CONVECTION TODAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE EAST. RAPID REFRESH
INITIATES CONVECTION VERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS BREAKS
OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING SHOULD SHIFT NORTH AND PROVIDE ENOUGH EARLY
DAY SUNSHINE TO IGNITE STORMS AS THE POWERFUL JET MAX MOVES
NORTHEAST. TREAT FOR TORNADOES OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA EXISTS WITH
LOW LCLS AND DYNAMIC SHEAR. SHOULD BE A ACTIVE DAY. TWH
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
HEADS UP EVERYONE...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN ZONES TODAY.
DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST...WITH
VERY DIFFLUENT SSW FLOW OVER OUR REGION. AREA OF COLD TOPS LIFTING
OUT OF WESTERN WYOMING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING ASCENT AS 90 KT
H3 JET COMES OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROF. MODELS NOT PRODUCING
MUCH QPF IN OUR AREA THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE ASCENT AND FACT
THAT OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE MOSTLY EASTERLY PER BLX VAD...FEEL
THAT SHOWERS WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR WEST HALF
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE MADE SOME POP ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. SECONDARY JET STREAK WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY SO FELT
COMFORTABLE IN PAINTING LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR AREA...WITH JET FORCING EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST BY
THIS EVENING AS LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST.
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN OUR EAST TODAY WHERE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING. SHARP
INVERTED SFC TROF WILL SET UP OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES TODAY...AND
ALONG AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE IS WHERE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTS...WITH STRONG SHEAR...CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND
PWATS RISING TO AN INCH OR MORE. LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT...BUT HIGH LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ON NORTHERN FLANK OF
SFC TROF SUGGEST A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. CIPS ANALOGS ALSO SHOW A
COUPLE TORNADOES NEAR BAKER AND EKALAKA IN SIMILAR PATTERNS IN
THE PAST. ONE POSSIBLE ISSUE COULD BE IF THERE IS TOO MUCH CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE DAY...LIMITING THE CAPE WE
CAN ACHIEVE. RAP SOUNDING FOR BHK DOES SHOW A CAP BREAKING BY
MIDDAY. NONETHELESS...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE RIPE FOR SEVERE
STORMS IF DISCRETE CELLS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE OTHER ISSUE
WITH CONVECTION IN OUR EAST TODAY WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAIN. STORM
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 15KTS OR LESS...WITH
TRAINING POSSIBLE ALONG AXIS OF SFC TROF...SO EXPECT MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL
ASCENT PERSISTS THROUGH AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. LATEST FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE FOR OUR EAST IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES/HR OR 1.8 INCHES/3HR.
HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR CARTER...FALLON AND CARTER
COUNTIES.
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY WILL BE IN A MUCH COOLER
AND LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AND THUS NON-SEVERE TODAY. THIS
OBVIOUSLY INCLUDES BILLINGS.
MODELS STILL SUGGEST DRY SLOTTING ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE
WRAPPING BACK INTO OUR WEST IN NW FLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DUE TO
THE STRONGLY CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT WE SHOULD STILL SEE
SOME DIURNAL WEAK SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SPEAKING OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT...700MB TEMPS ARE FALLING
BELOW 0C OVER OUR FAR WESTERN MTNS THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA AND
CRAZY MTNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AS OF 3AM...TEMPS AT 9 KFT
ARE IN THE MID 30S...SO THIS IS PROBABLY A ROUGH SNOW LEVEL AT
THIS TIME. COULD SEE SNOW DOWN TO 7.5-8 KFT BY TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL OBVIOUSLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F ON WEDNESDAY.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM KEEPS A CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL SHOWING UP WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER
RETURNING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVES IN OVER MONTANA BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING HEIGHTS AND ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL SEND PIECES OF ENERGY INTO SC/SE
MT. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVELS MOIST AND AFTERNOON
HEATING ALONG WITH THE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING
ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION. RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
WILL BRING LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
HYSHAM TO ASHLAND. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 65KTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH
BY 05Z TONIGHT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ACR/TWH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 048/066 049/073 051/081 054/085 056/082 055/081
6/T 54/T 33/T 21/U 11/B 23/T 34/T
LVM 061 040/060 042/071 045/078 047/080 048/078 048/078
6/T 55/T 42/T 11/U 23/T 33/T 33/T
HDN 071 049/068 048/074 050/083 053/088 056/084 056/082
6/T 63/T 33/T 21/U 11/U 23/T 33/T
MLS 074 053/070 049/071 052/081 055/085 058/083 057/082
7/T 75/T 34/T 32/T 11/U 22/T 22/T
4BQ 076 052/070 048/072 051/081 053/085 056/083 055/081
4/T 74/T 44/T 21/B 11/U 12/T 22/T
BHK 073 054/069 048/068 049/076 051/081 054/079 054/077
9/T +6/T 34/T 32/T 11/U 12/T 22/T
SHR 070 045/065 043/071 047/080 049/084 052/081 052/080
5/T 63/T 33/T 21/U 11/B 23/T 34/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ZONES
32-33-37.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
556 AM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.UPDATE...
STRONG JET DIVERGENCE FROM THE SOUTH HAS RESULTED IN A LARGE AREA
OF RAIN BETWEEN BILLINGS AND COLUMBUS...LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH.
HAVE RAISED EARLY MORNING POPS TO COVER THIS. ALREADY WE ARE
SEEING CLOUD TOP COOLING IN WEST CENTRAL WY IN RESPONSE TO NEXT
JET STREAK FROM THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT WAVES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
THRU TODAY...WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF
OUR CWA. JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
HEADS UP EVERYONE...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN ZONES TODAY.
DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST...WITH
VERY DIFFLUENT SSW FLOW OVER OUR REGION. AREA OF COLD TOPS LIFTING
OUT OF WESTERN WYOMING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING ASCENT AS 90 KT
H3 JET COMES OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROF. MODELS NOT PRODUCING
MUCH QPF IN OUR AREA THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE ASCENT AND FACT
THAT OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE MOSTLY EASTERLY PER BLX VAD...FEEL
THAT SHOWERS WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR WEST HALF
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE MADE SOME POP ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. SECONDARY JET STREAK WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY SO FELT
COMFORTABLE IN PAINTING LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR AREA...WITH JET FORCING EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST BY
THIS EVENING AS LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST.
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN OUR EAST TODAY WHERE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING. SHARP
INVERTED SFC TROF WILL SET UP OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES TODAY...AND
ALONG AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE IS WHERE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTS...WITH STRONG SHEAR...CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND
PWATS RISING TO AN INCH OR MORE. LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT...BUT HIGH LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ON NORTHERN FLANK OF
SFC TROF SUGGEST A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. CIPS ANALOGS ALSO SHOW A
COUPLE TORNADOES NEAR BAKER AND EKALAKA IN SIMILAR PATTERNS IN
THE PAST. ONE POSSIBLE ISSUE COULD BE IF THERE IS TOO MUCH CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE DAY...LIMITING THE CAPE WE
CAN ACHIEVE. RAP SOUNDING FOR BHK DOES SHOW A CAP BREAKING BY
MIDDAY. NONETHELESS...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE RIPE FOR SEVERE
STORMS IF DISCRETE CELLS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE OTHER ISSUE
WITH CONVECTION IN OUR EAST TODAY WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAIN. STORM
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 15KTS OR LESS...WITH
TRAINING POSSIBLE ALONG AXIS OF SFC TROF...SO EXPECT MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL
ASCENT PERSISTS THROUGH AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. LATEST FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE FOR OUR EAST IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES/HR OR 1.8 INCHES/3HR.
HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR CARTER...FALLON AND CARTER
COUNTIES.
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY WILL BE IN A MUCH COOLER
AND LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AND THUS NON-SEVERE TODAY. THIS
OBVIOUSLY INCLUDES BILLINGS.
MODELS STILL SUGGEST DRY SLOTTING ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE
WRAPPING BACK INTO OUR WEST IN NW FLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DUE TO
THE STRONGLY CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT WE SHOULD STILL SEE
SOME DIURNAL WEAK SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SPEAKING OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT...700MB TEMPS ARE FALLING
BELOW 0C OVER OUR FAR WESTERN MTNS THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA AND
CRAZY MTNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AS OF 3AM...TEMPS AT 9 KFT
ARE IN THE MID 30S...SO THIS IS PROBABLY A ROUGH SNOW LEVEL AT
THIS TIME. COULD SEE SNOW DOWN TO 7.5-8 KFT BY TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL OBVIOUSLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F ON WEDNESDAY.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM KEEPS A CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL SHOWING UP WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER
RETURNING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVES IN OVER MONTANA BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING HEIGHTS AND ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL SEND PIECES OF ENERGY INTO SC/SE
MT. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVELS MOIST AND AFTERNOON
HEATING ALONG WITH THE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING
ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION. RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
WILL BRING LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
MILES CITY TO BROADUS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 65KTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH
BY 05Z TONIGHT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. RICHMOND
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 048/066 049/073 051/081 054/085 056/082 055/081
8/T 54/T 33/T 21/U 11/B 23/T 34/T
LVM 061 040/060 042/071 045/078 047/080 048/078 048/078
6/T 55/T 42/T 11/U 23/T 33/T 33/T
HDN 071 049/068 048/074 050/083 053/088 056/084 056/082
6/T 63/T 33/T 21/U 11/U 23/T 33/T
MLS 074 053/070 049/071 052/081 055/085 058/083 057/082
7/T 75/T 34/T 32/T 11/U 22/T 22/T
4BQ 076 052/070 048/072 051/081 053/085 056/083 055/081
4/T 74/T 44/T 21/B 11/U 12/T 22/T
BHK 073 054/069 048/068 049/076 051/081 054/079 054/077
9/T +6/T 34/T 32/T 11/U 12/T 22/T
SHR 070 045/065 043/071 047/080 049/084 052/081 052/080
5/T 63/T 33/T 21/U 11/B 23/T 34/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR ZONES 32-33-37.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
311 AM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
HEADS UP EVERYONE...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE IN EASTERN ZONES TODAY.
DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST...WITH
VERY DIFFLUENT SSW FLOW OVER OUR REGION. AREA OF COLD TOPS LIFTING
OUT OF WESTERN WYOMING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING ASCENT AS 90 KT
H3 JET COMES OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROF. MODELS NOT PRODUCING
MUCH QPF IN OUR AREA THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE ASCENT AND FACT
THAT OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE MOSTLY EASTERLY PER BLX VAD...FEEL
THAT SHOWERS WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR WEST HALF
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE MADE SOME POP ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. SECONDARY JET STREAK WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY SO FELT
COMFORTABLE IN PAINTING LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR AREA...WITH JET FORCING EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST BY
THIS EVENING AS LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST.
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN OUR EAST TODAY WHERE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING. SHARP
INVERTED SFC TROF WILL SET UP OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES TODAY...AND
ALONG AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE IS WHERE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTS...WITH STRONG SHEAR...CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND
PWATS RISING TO AN INCH OR MORE. LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT...BUT HIGH LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ON NORTHERN FLANK OF
SFC TROF SUGGEST A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. CIPS ANALOGS ALSO SHOW A
COUPLE TORNADOES NEAR BAKER AND EKALAKA IN SIMILAR PATTERNS IN
THE PAST. ONE POSSIBLE ISSUE COULD BE IF THERE IS TOO MUCH CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE DAY...LIMITING THE CAPE WE
CAN ACHIEVE. RAP SOUNDING FOR BHK DOES SHOW A CAP BREAKING BY
MIDDAY. NONETHELESS...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE RIPE FOR SEVERE
STORMS IF DISCRETE CELLS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE OTHER ISSUE
WITH CONVECTION IN OUR EAST TODAY WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAIN. STORM
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 15KTS OR LESS...WITH
TRAINING POSSIBLE ALONG AXIS OF SFC TROF...SO EXPECT MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL
ASCENT PERSISTS THROUGH AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. LATEST FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE FOR OUR EAST IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES/HR OR 1.8 INCHES/3HR.
HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR CARTER...FALLON AND CARTER
COUNTIES.
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY WILL BE IN A MUCH COOLER
AND LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AND THUS NON-SEVERE TODAY. THIS
OBVIOUSLY INCLUDES BILLINGS.
MODELS STILL SUGGEST DRY SLOTTING ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE
WRAPPING BACK INTO OUR WEST IN NW FLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DUE TO
THE STRONGLY CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT WE SHOULD STILL SEE
SOME DIURNAL WEAK SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SPEAKING OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT...700MB TEMPS ARE FALLING
BELOW 0C OVER OUR FAR WESTERN MTNS THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA AND
CRAZY MTNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AS OF 3AM...TEMPS AT 9 KFT
ARE IN THE MID 30S...SO THIS IS PROBABLY A ROUGH SNOW LEVEL AT
THIS TIME. COULD SEE SNOW DOWN TO 7.5-8 KFT BY TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL OBVIOUSLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F ON WEDNESDAY.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM KEEPS A CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL SHOWING UP WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER
RETURNING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVES IN OVER MONTANA BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING HEIGHTS AND ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL SEND PIECES OF ENERGY INTO SC/SE
MT. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVELS MOIST AND AFTERNOON
HEATING ALONG WITH THE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING
ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION. RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
WILL BRING LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
MILES CITY TO BROADUS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 65KTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH
BY 05Z TONIGHT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. RICHMOND
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 048/066 049/073 051/081 054/085 056/082 055/081
6/T 54/T 33/T 21/U 11/B 23/T 34/T
LVM 061 040/060 042/071 045/078 047/080 048/078 048/078
6/T 55/T 42/T 11/U 23/T 33/T 33/T
HDN 071 049/068 048/074 050/083 053/088 056/084 056/082
6/T 63/T 33/T 21/U 11/U 23/T 33/T
MLS 074 053/070 049/071 052/081 055/085 058/083 057/082
7/T 75/T 34/T 32/T 11/U 22/T 22/T
4BQ 076 052/070 048/072 051/081 053/085 056/083 055/081
4/T 74/T 44/T 21/B 11/U 12/T 22/T
BHK 073 054/069 048/068 049/076 051/081 054/079 054/077
9/T +6/T 34/T 32/T 11/U 12/T 22/T
SHR 070 045/065 043/071 047/080 049/084 052/081 052/080
5/T 63/T 33/T 21/U 11/B 23/T 34/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR ZONES 32-33-37.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
315 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS...AND A RIDGE OVER THE EAST. ENHANCED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...NORTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN FARTHER NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 55KTS NEAR
37000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXTENDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS WELL AS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS NOTED EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IN
ADDITION...A DRY LINE IS NOTED EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...LIKELY POSITIONING ITSELF OVER NORTHERN MONTANA BY 00Z
THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
SWING TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW AND BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY MAY BEGIN TO MEANDER SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OR NORTHWEST AS
AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN PERIODIC NORTHWESTERLY LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER WEST/NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HRRR DOES INDICATE SOME VERY
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS REACHED...AND THE
4KM WRF-NMM INDICATES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS FOR THE SAME REASON.
SO ALTHOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE PROBABILITY OF
ANY ONE LOCATION ACTUALLY OBSERVING THIS ACTIVITY IS TOO LOW FOR
INSERTION INTO THE FORECAST AND AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN THE
DRY FORECAST FOR OUR CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE
OFF CHANCE A THUNDERSTORM CAN GET GOING...IT WOULD HAVE
2000-3000J/KG 0-1KM MLCAPE AND ~35KTS DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR TO
WORK WITH...SO CERTAINLY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS COULD RESULT...BUT AGAIN THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH ACTIVITY
BEING REALIZED TO TOO LOW FOR INSERTION INTO THE FORECAST AND HWO
AT THIS TIME.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...A 60-70KT LOW LEVEL JET AXIS
JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS JET AXIS WILL LIKELY CLIP OUR CWA...IT APPEARS
THE BULK OF ANY MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST...AND
THE PRIMARY AXIS OF THERMAL ADVECTION WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO KEEP OUR FORECAST DRY TONIGHT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SYNOPTIC-SCALE OMEGA SHOULD
INCREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS INCREASING
OMEGA...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING ALONG THE MEANDERING BAROCLINIC ZONE...AS WELL AS NEAR-
ZERO CIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. ONE MIGHT THINK LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
AT OBSERVING CONVECTION...BUT QPF FIELDS FROM VARIOUS MODELS
SUGGEST OUR SOUTHERN CWA STANDS A BETTER CHANCE AT OBSERVING
CONVECTION DUE TO LOWER CIN VALUES. REALLY HARD TO SAY ONE
LOCATION HAS A BETTER CHANCE OVER ANOTHER...SO WENT AHEAD AND
BLANKETED THE ENTIRE CWA WITH ~20% POPS BETWEEN 21Z WEDNESDAY AND
00Z THURSDAY. SHOULD DEEP CONVECTION BE REALIZED ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000J/KG ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 20-30KTS. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO
OUTLOOK THE AREA FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER STARTING LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 CURRENTLY
FORECAST ACROSS THE CWA. SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MOST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE BEST MUCAPE DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THEN DIMINISHING LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO BE MAINLY DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.
THE FRONT LINGERS JUST TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING AND
PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS IN THE
EAST...BUT THEN AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AND SOME OF THEM COULD BE IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE DAY.
THERE IS GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH. EACH OF
THE WAVES BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. IT
CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE RAINING ALL OF THE TIME OVER ALL OF THE
AREA...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE. MOST OF THESE ARE PRETTY SMALL
CHANCES SINCE THE MODELS HAVE SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING OF
EACH OF THE WAVES. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AN INCREASING WIND FIELD JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE TAF 09-14Z.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1152 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
ELEMENTS NECESSARY FOR SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT COMING TOGETHER LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AN OPEN GULF THE LAST 24HR HAS ALLOWED STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. MESO ANALYSIS INDICATING
SFC DEW PTS IN THE LOW 70S HAVE PUSHED IN THE CWA ALONG WITH PWS
VALUES APPROACHING 1.75". WITH STRONG BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADV
UNDERWAY...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
SBCAPES PUSHING 5500J/KG...LI -14. ALONG WITH FAVORABLE EFF-SRH IN
PLACE...TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS QUITE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN CWA WHERE BEST 0-1KM SRH...LOW
LFC/LCL WILL BE FOCUSED. TWD LATE EVENING HRRR IS SHOWING STORMS
EVOLVING INTO AN MCS AS IT MOVES INTO NW IA.
TUES AND WED HEFTY MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE TO PHASE WITH
MUCH WARMER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN ALLOWING FOR QUITE MUGGY
CONDITIONS. NAM AND GFS STILL PROG HEAT INDICES APPROACHING/AROUND
100 DEG BOTH DAYS.
WED NIGHT...NEXT ROUND OF TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO FORM ON NOSE
OF LLVL JET/BNDRY LYR THETA-E CONVG. HVY RA LOOKS PROBABLE GIVEN
FAVORABLE PCPN EFFICIENCY/KI VALUES 40/PWS CLOSE TO 2". ACTIVITY
THEN PROGGED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING IN ANOTHER GOOD
CHANCE OF STORMS WITH 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE...WHICH PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND EAST/OUT OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WAVE MATERIALIZES ON THE GFS BY FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS GENERALLY DRY...SO
CONFIDENCE THAT FAR OUT IS TYPICALLY LOW. WILL OPT FOR A DRY
FORECAST SATURDAY...BUT MODELS DO HINT AT ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IN
THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. ONGOING STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KOFK. CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT KOFK AND 10-15KT WINDS AT
KOMA/KLNK OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL SITES TO AROUND
15-18KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25-30KT IN THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING
AGAIN DIURNALLY TO AROUND 10-15KT AFTER 01Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
938 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AS A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DIVES TO OUR SOUTH. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA. FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 930 PM...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SPREAD SOUTH OF THE REMNANTS OF A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR REGION IN PENNSYLVANIA. THIS SAID...THERE IS STILL
SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...AS THE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST AT 30 MPH.
TO THE NORTH OF THIS...THERE STILL REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...REACHING TO JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE.
THIS WILL LIKELY BRING LIGHT BUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BUF-ROC
SOUTH...WITH SPRINKLES NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR. ALL OF THIS
SHOULD EXIT TO THE SE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING A
LULL IN THE ACTION.
SOME MESOSCALE GUIDANCE DOES NOT CAPTURE THE INITIAL COMPLEX AND KEYS
ON A SECONDARY FEATURE LATER TONIGHT...BUT GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE
CONFIDENCE IN THE HRRR SOLUTION WHICH HAS MOST OF THE QPF LATE
THIS EVENING. THIS SECONDARY WAVE MAY CLIP THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE
TONIGHT...BUT ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE DRY AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR
BUILDS BEHIND THE EXITING COMPLEX.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AND SET UP A NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN
TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S OVERNIGHT...COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH COOLING
INHIBITED SOMEWHAT BY THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED THE
TROUGH.
LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE AND FAIR WEATHER ON THURSDAY AS A MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL DISPLACE THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD YIELD A FINE DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S...WITH 60S ALONG
THE LAKE ONTARIO SHERLINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PUSHING THE AXIS OF
SURFACE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE NEW YORK BORDER. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE DROPPING DEWPOINTS WILL PROVIDE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO UPPER TO
MID 40S EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORES AND IN URBAN AREAS WHICH
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 50S. ALSO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING RIDGED ACROSS NEW YORK. EXPECTING LOTS OF
SUNSHINE TO START THEN SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AHEAD
OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. SURFACE TEMPS WILL RISE INTO A RANGE OF UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO AROUND 70 EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE 850MB TEMPS
WILL FALL TO AROUND 8C. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER CLEARING TO THE
SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL TO
THE SOUTH SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER. OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE MID 70S
SATURDAY AND FALL INTO THE 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER BEGINS AT 621AM SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING A GREAT DAY
ON SUNDAY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
70S. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN OF WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. A GENERAL MODEL SOLUTION SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY BEGINS INCREASING MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
DIURNALLY TRIGGERED AFTERNOON STORMS THEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WENT WITH BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS MON-WED TO COVER FOR
THE CONVECTION BUT TIMING AND LOCATION WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPS WILL RUN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
AVERAGE FOR LATE JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS MAINLY
FALLING FROM A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS
JHW...WHERE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THIS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER VSBY/CIGS...WITH
LEFT OVER MOISTURE LIKELY TO LEAVE MVFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER
AIR BUILD INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ERIE WATERS
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LARGELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST ON THE LAKES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
759 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT...WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AS A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DIVES TO OUR SOUTH. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA. FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 730 PM...RADAR SHOWS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS LAKE
ERIE. AS FORECAST...THIS COMPLEX IS WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY ON ITS
NORTHERN EDGE...WITH CONVECTION EXPANDING OUT AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX
ACROSS NW PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE REMAINS WITH THE WEAKENING COMPLEX...WITH BOTH RADAR
TRENDS AND THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE HRRR BRINGING THIS ACROSS THE
CWA FROM LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD. THIS SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY
HEAVY RAIN...BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND AND
MEASURE...AND AS SUCH HAVE UPPED POPPED TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ALONG
THE I-90 CORRIDOR.
MEANWHILE...A DECENT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS SOUTH OF
THIS...TRACKING TOWARD ERIE COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA. THIS FEATURE
BEARS WATCHING...BUT GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR IT IS
ENCOUNTERING...IT IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT REACHES
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT
STILL POSES ONLY A SMALL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
THIS COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE NIGHT. SOME
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE MISSES THIS COMPLEX AND KEYS ON A SECONDARY
FEATURES...BUT GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE HRRR
SOLUTION WHICH HAS MOST OF THE QPF LATE THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY
WAVE MAY CLIP THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT...BUT ELSEWHERE
SHOULD BE DRY AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR BUILDS BEHIND THE EXITING
COMPLEX.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AND SET UP A NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN
TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S OVERNIGHT...COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH COOLING
INHIBITED SOMEWHAT BY THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED THE
TROUGH.
LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE AND FAIR WEATHER ON THURSDAY AS A MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL DISPLACE THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD YIELD A FINE DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S...WITH 60S ALONG
THE LAKE ONTARIO SHERLINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PUSHING THE AXIS OF
SURFACE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE NEW YORK BORDER. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE DROPPING DEWPOINTS WILL PROVIDE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO UPPER TO
MID 40S EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORES AND IN URBAN AREAS WHICH
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 50S. ALSO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING RIDGED ACROSS NEW YORK. EXPECTING LOTS OF
SUNSHINE TO START THEN SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AHEAD
OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. SURFACE TEMPS WILL RISE INTO A RANGE OF UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO AROUND 70 EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE 850MB TEMPS
WILL FALL TO AROUND 8C. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER CLEARING TO THE
SOUTH BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL TO
THE SOUTH SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER. OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE MID 70S
SATURDAY AND FALL INTO THE 50S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS.
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER BEGINS AT 621AM SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING A GREAT DAY
ON SUNDAY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
70S. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN OF WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. A GENERAL MODEL SOLUTION SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY BEGINS INCREASING MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME
DIURNALLY TRIGGERED AFTERNOON STORMS THEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WENT WITH BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS MON-WED TO COVER FOR
THE CONVECTION BUT TIMING AND LOCATION WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPS WILL RUN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
AVERAGE FOR LATE JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWERS MAINLY
FALLING FROM A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS
JHW...WHERE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THIS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER VSBY/CIGS...WITH
LEFT OVER MOISTURE LIKELY TO LEAVE MVFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER
AIR BUILD INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ERIE WATERS
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...LARGELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST ON THE LAKES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION FROM CANADA.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
616 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS...HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION AND USHERS IN A
REFRESHING AND DRIER AIR MASS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS EXPIRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...THERE IS ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS APPROACHING THAT MAY
REQUIRE ADDITIONAL ATTENTION. AT 600 PM...RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH A BROKEN LINE DEVELOPING ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT ABOUT 40 MPH...REACHING
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 700 AND 800 PM. THIS IS ALSO DEPICTED
BY LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND 18Z NAM.
THE BIG QUESTION IS IF THIS WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY IN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...ESPECIALLY WEST OF ROCHESTER. NAM/GFS
GUIDANCE BOTH SHOW IMPRESSIVE WIND PROFILES AT 00Z...JUST AHEAD OF
THIS SHORTWAVE. 850 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 40 TO 50
KTS...WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR AND A MODEST AMOUNT OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR. BUF VWP AND IAG OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THIS FORECAST...WITH
ENVIRONMENT CANADA ALREADY ISSUING NUMEROUS WARNINGS FOR THIS LINE.
AT THIS POINT...THE ONLY QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS HOW STORMS WILL
HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS THE LAKES. IF THEY DO...THEN THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS STILL IN PLACE. FORECAST WIND PROFILES SUGGEST WIND
DAMAGE IS THE GREATEST THREAT...WITH HAIL AND EVEN TORNADOES EVEN
A POSSIBILITY AS THIS WEATHER MOVES THROUGH. THE MOST ACTIVE
PERIOD WILL BE IN BETWEEN 800 PM AND MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH LOW IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S AND IT WILL FEEL QUITE MUGGY AS WELL. EXPECT
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO PUSH THE THERMAL BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES WITH DRYING AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WHICH WILL FEEL MUCH LESS MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABOUT 5
TO 8 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A SOUTHWARD PRESSING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN A
CANADIAN SOURCED AIRMASS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE PRESENT ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT EXPECT THESE TO CLEAR SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY OF THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL BE REPLACED BY A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE AND DRIER
AIRMASS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO LOWER 50S
WITH CLEARING SKIES.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR
REGION DRY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SAFELY SOUTH OF THE
NY/PA BORDER. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THURSDAY NIGHT THE DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 40S INLAND. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A BIT OF A CHILL TO
THE AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE 60S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. FRIDAY NIGHT A CHANCE SHOWERS
RETURNS TO THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AS A FORECASTED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ALOFT BY GFS/ECMWF MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OVERNIGHT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE UNDER WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE 50S AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO RIDGE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL GENERALLY KEEP
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE FOR THE
START OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER WHICH BEGINS AT 621AM SATURDAY. WILL
KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND
AS ANY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MAY INTERACT WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS. THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH
STABLE AIR IN PLACE TO PREVENT ANY THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY NEXT WEEK A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES BY
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SO HAVE KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GENERAL CHANCE ON TUESDAY WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO INCREASE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
AGAIN BE MENTIONED. HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RISE INTO THE
70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 60.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN IMPACT ON AVIATION WILL BE A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF
TSTMS WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THESE COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FOR 1-2 HOURS AT EACH TAF
LOCATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS A
POSSIBILITY. BEST ESTIMATE FOR TIMING IS REFLECTED IN CURRENT TAFS.
AFTER THIS...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THIS.
ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ATTENDANT LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR TO MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
A WARM AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE WAVE ACTION ON THE LAKES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT AND COULD BRING
LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A REFRESHING
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR/WCH/APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR/WCH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/JJR/WCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1245 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM TUESDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A FAIRLY SLACK GRADIENT OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH AN APPARENT WEAK SHEAR AXIS ON WATER
VAPOR MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM VIRGINIA. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...THE LATEST RAP FORECASTS DECENT 850MB THETA-E VALUES
OVER THE AREA...AND 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7.5C/KM
OR A LITTLE HIGHER. COMPARED TO MONDAY...THE 12Z GSO AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LFC BEING HIGHER AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS JUST
SLIGHT MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. 0-6KM SHEAR IS WEAK...10KT OR LESS
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE THE RAP SURFACE DEW POINTS SEEM TO BE
MIXED TOO MUCH LATE IN THE DAY...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SOME
MIXING OF THE DEW POINTS TO MAKE FOR AT LEAST GOOD CIN INTO THE
EARLY-TO-MID AFTERNOON. BETTER LIFT IS SUGGESTED BY THE RAP IN
SOUTHEAST AREAS AFTER 19Z...LEAST NORTHEAST WHERE THE RAP 850MB
THETA-E VALUES AND OVERALL INSTABILITY ARE LOWER.
ALL OF THIS COINCIDES WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST...AND CHANGED
LITTLE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR WRF AND THE NSSL ARW BOTH
NOTE ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY IN A RING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...A HIGHER LFC...AND MOSTLY
CONVERGENCE ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AS FORECAST BY THE RAP...CHANCES
FOR DEEP CONVECTION APPEAR LIMITED BUT STILL POSSIBLE DUE TO HEAT...
INSTABILITY...AND WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES AND
THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT MOVING SOUTH. THE RAP DOES FORECAST ITS
BEST LIFT...IN A RELATIVE SENSE...SOUTHEAST POSSIBLY NEAR THE SEA
BREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE
FORECAST AROUND 1000J/KG...AS IS TYPICAL IN SUCH AN AIR MASS THE
STRONGEST STORM...SHOULD ONE FORM...COULD PRODUCE A SEVERE WIND BUT
COVERAGE OF SUCH SEEMS QUITE ISOLATED. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES
SUGGEST HIGHS ABOUT AS FORECAST...ON THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE AND IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 90S IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO AROUND 100 OVER MUCH
OF THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. -DJF
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION OCCURRING AT SUNSET WILL DIMINISH BY 10-11
PM. UNDER FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT CALM WINDS...MAY SEE POCKETS OF FOG
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVE A HEAVY DOWNPOUR FROM
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S. -WSS
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...
WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE OVERHEAD..WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
INITIATE/SUSTAIN ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED STORM LATE WEDNESDAY-
WEDNESDAY EVENING. BEST CHANCE OF A STORM WILL BE IN THE NW PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT DRIFTS OFF THE BLUE
RIDGE. WE WILL LIKELY SEE OUR HOTTEST TEMPS OF THE YEAR SO FAR
WEDNESDAY AS THICKNESSES REMAIN IN THE 1430S. UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS EXPECT IN THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE MID 90S WILL
BE COMMON. THE ONLY PLACE WHICH MAY SEE A RECORD HIGH TEMP
THREATENED WIL BE RDU WHERE THE RECORD HIGH MAX FOR JUNE 18TH IS 98
SET IN 1944. SIMILAR TO TODAY...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MIX TOWARD THE
SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON...LOWERING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 60S.
THIS YIELDS HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE...VERY
SIMILAR TO THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE. MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...
THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A SWITCH IN THE GENERAL PATTERN FROM
RIDGING ALOFT TO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA. IN ADDITION...HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE RESULT IS
A BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WILL SET UP NORTHEAST OF THE CWA AND EXTEND
BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A SECOND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
WHILE THE PATTERN WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA...TWO APPEAR TO BE MORE ROBUST. THE FIRST IS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THE SECOND ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
BOTH ARE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES. THE INCREASE IN FORCING SHOULD MAKE CONVECTION EASIER
TO SUSTAIN AS SHEAR VALUES INCREASE FROM GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 TO
NEAR 30 KTS. CAPE VALUES SHOULD BE PLUS OR MINUS 1000 J/KG. HAVE
INCREASED CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS AS COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. ANY STORMS THAT MAY BECOME SEVERE WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL
FOR WET MICROBURSTS BUT THERE IS ALSO ENOUGH CAPE THROUGH THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE TO NOT COUNT OUT SOME SMALL HAIL AS WELL. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT AND LOWER TO
MID 90S ON THE COOL SIDE. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1005 AM TUESDAY...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. FIRST...EARLY
MORNING LOW END MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND IFR-LIFR VISIBILITY IN FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD...EACH MORNING. THESE
CONDITIONS MOST PROBABLE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. SECOND...LATE DAY-EARLY
EVENING ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY TODAY ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS AS WELL AS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND
LIMITED TO JUST THE FAR NW PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH A LOW
LEVEL MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...DJF/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...DJF/WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1005 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM TUESDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A FAIRLY SLACK GRADIENT OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH AN APPARENT WEAK SHEAR AXIS ON WATER
VAPOR MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM VIRGINIA. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...THE LATEST RAP FORECASTS DECENT 850MB THETA-E VALUES
OVER THE AREA...AND 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7.5C/KM
OR A LITTLE HIGHER. COMPARED TO MONDAY...THE 12Z GSO AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LFC BEING HIGHER AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS JUST
SLIGHT MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. 0-6KM SHEAR IS WEAK...10KT OR LESS
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE THE RAP SURFACE DEW POINTS SEEM TO BE
MIXED TOO MUCH LATE IN THE DAY...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SOME
MIXING OF THE DEW POINTS TO MAKE FOR AT LEAST GOOD CIN INTO THE
EARLY-TO-MID AFTERNOON. BETTER LIFT IS SUGGESTED BY THE RAP IN
SOUTHEAST AREAS AFTER 19Z...LEAST NORTHEAST WHERE THE RAP 850MB
THETA-E VALUES AND OVERALL INSTABILITY ARE LOWER.
ALL OF THIS COINCIDES WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST...AND CHANGED
LITTLE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR WRF AND THE NSSL ARW BOTH
NOTE ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY IN A RING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...A HIGHER LFC...AND MOSTLY
CONVERGENCE ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AS FORECAST BY THE RAP...CHANCES
FOR DEEP CONVECTION APPEAR LIMITED BUT STILL POSSIBLE DUE TO HEAT...
INSTABILITY...AND WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES AND
THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT MOVING SOUTH. THE RAP DOES FORECAST ITS
BEST LIFT...IN A RELATIVE SENSE...SOUTHEAST POSSIBLY NEAR THE SEA
BREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE
FORECAST AROUND 1000J/KG...AS IS TYPICAL IN SUCH AN AIR MASS THE
STRONGEST STORM...SHOULD ONE FORM...COULD PRODUCE A SEVERE WIND BUT
COVERAGE OF SUCH SEEMS QUITE ISOLATED. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES
SUGGEST HIGHS ABOUT AS FORECAST...ON THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE AND IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 90S IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO AROUND 100 OVER MUCH
OF THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. -DJF
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION OCCURRING AT SUNSET WILL DIMINISH BY 10-11
PM. UNDER FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT CALM WINDS...MAY SEE POCKETS OF FOG
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVE A HEAVY DOWNPOUR FROM
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S. -WSS
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...
WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE OVERHEAD..WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
INITIATE/SUSTAIN ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED STORM LATE WEDNESDAY-
WEDNESDAY EVENING. BEST CHANCE OF A STORM WILL BE IN THE NW PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT DRIFTS OFF THE BLUE
RIDGE. WE WILL LIKELY SEE OUR HOTTEST TEMPS OF THE YEAR SO FAR
WEDNESDAY AS THICKNESSES REMAIN IN THE 1430S. UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS EXPECT IN THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE MID 90S WILL
BE COMMON. THE ONLY PLACE WHICH MAY SEE A RECORD HIGH TEMP
THREATENED WIL BE RDU WHERE THE RECORD HIGH MAX FOR JUNE 18TH IS 98
SET IN 1944. SIMILAR TO TODAY...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MIX TOWARD THE
SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON...LOWERING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 60S.
THIS YIELDS HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE...VERY
SIMILAR TO THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE. MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
TRANSITION FROM MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE REGION LATE
WEEK TO A GENERAL BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS WE
SHOULD SEE A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
REGION... BEFORE LOSING STEAM AND DISSIPATING TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER SURFACE COLD
FRONT MAY MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO/CROSS THE REGION VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD... WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW.
THIS YIELDS... SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY... TRANSITIONING TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE WEST-NORTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW.
AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO RETREAT SOUTHWESTWARD AND
CONVECTIVE CHANCES INCREASE... EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT
TOO. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD STILL SHOULD SEE SOME MID TO UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST THURSDAY AGAIN... MAYBE INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL. THUS... WILL STILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS YIELDS
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1005 AM TUESDAY...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. FIRST...EARLY
MORNING LOW END MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND IFR-LIFR VISIBILITY IN FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD...EACH MORNING. THESE
CONDITIONS MOST PROBABLE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. SECOND...LATE DAY-EARLY
EVENING ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY TODAY ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS AS WELL AS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND
LIMITED TO JUST THE FAR NW PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH A LOW
LEVEL MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...DJF/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...DJF/WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
714 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN SASK THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW
AT 00Z FROM OBS LOOKS TO BE JUST NORTHEAST OF PIERRE SD. RAP/HRRR
HAS THIS SFC LOW DRIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD ABERDEEN AREA BY 10Z.
STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE INFLOW AND AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND 1500
J/KG ELEVATED CAPE ALL ADVECT INTO SOUTHEAST ND 04Z-09Z PERIOD
AND RAP MODEL SHOWS 50 KT 850 MB INFLOW AS WELL. FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS MAIN ACTION WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS EXTREME SFC
INSTABILITY POCKET REMAINS IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN SD/NW IOWA. THIS
AREA AROUND SIOUX FALLS AND ENVIRONS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
WHICH WILL MERGE INTO A MCS TONIGHT. AREA OF GENERAL RAIN/STORMS
NORTH OF THIS INTO ERN ND. QUESTION IS SEVERE. ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES AND INFLOW SUGGEST SOME SEVERE STORMS PSBL IN THE 04-09Z
PERIOD IN SOUTHEASTERN ND BUT COVERAGE OF SEVERE IS QUESTIONABLE
ATTM. MOISTURE NOT A PROBLEM AS SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHWARD OF
INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL GIVE HEAVY RAINFALL BUT AS USUAL WHERE AND
HOW MUCH WILL FALL IN QUESTION AND FOR TIME THE TIME BEING WRN
FCST AREA HAS SEEN LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN THIS MONTH. SO NOT FLOOD
HEADLINES ATTM.
UPON COORD WITH MPX/DLH DID BACK OFF ON NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT OF
STORMS TONIGHT WITH SLOWER ARRIVAL TIMING. HRRR/RAP HAVE STORMS
REACHING NR PKD-GFK AREA 10Z OR SO AND FAR NORTHEASTERN AREAS 12Z
OR SO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
CHALLENGES INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL AND SEVERE STORMS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. RAP/HRRR HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH EVOLUTION OF TONIGHT/S SET-UP...SO WILL FOLLOW HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THROUGH 18 HOURS. THEREAFTER...WILL USE A
GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE.
CONVECTION HAS FIRED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST SD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE CAP HAS ERODED ALONG SFC TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR THE EASTERN NE/SD BORDER. FARTHER
EAST...CAP IS VERY STRONG AS EVIDENT ON 18 UTC ABR SOUNDING AND
WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR LOW-LEVEL JET SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION TO
INITIATE AND TAP INTO ELEVATED CAPE UPWARD OF 1500 J/KG. UPDATES
MADE AT 1 PM STILL VALID...SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 00 UTC
WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. BEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND ALONG THE NOSE OF THE 850
HPA JET (HAIL/WIND/TORNADOES) WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE REGION-WIDE.
MUCH OF EASTERN ND HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY...SO NO NEED FOR FLOOD
WATCH...BUT SLOW-MOVING EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS MAY REQUIRE
ADVISORIES.
SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SEVERE THREAT WILL DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF
TONIGHT/S STORMS...BUT ANY BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AND RESULTANT HEATING
COULD HELP INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN A
MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND A 50 KT 500 HPA JET STREAK ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. EVEN WITHOUT SEVERE CONVECTION...
STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE BROADER
SFC TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PWATS INCREASE
TO 1.75 INCHES...SO WILL NEED TO CAREFULLY MONITOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FLOODING ESPECIALLY AS PRECIP MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN WHICH HAS BEEN HIT HARD BY RECENT
HEAVY RAIN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
THERE COULD BE SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS THE WEAKENING SFC LOW WOBBLES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIES...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES
BOTH DAYS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND ON FRIDAY SHIFTING TO THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT OVERALL DRIER WEATHER WITH
TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WE SHOULD REMAIN IN OVERALL
ZONAL FLOW WITH SOME RIDGING ALOFT. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS/
STORMS REALLY ANY DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT OVERALL
NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. WE WILL MAINTAIN
SOME LOWER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH...TYPICAL OF A SUMMER
LIKE PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
AREA OF VFR STRATOCU MIXED IN WITH CIRRUS THIS EVENING. WHEN RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE CIGS LIKELY TO GO DOWN INTO MVFR RANGE
WITH TEMP IFR VSBYS IN RAIN/THUNDER. TIMED THUNDER/RAIN CHANCES
RAIN AREA OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THURSDAY COMBINED WITH
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY TO BRING MVFR CIGS MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND. DVL HOWEVER MAY GET WEST OF
THE TROUGH AND WINDS TURN MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND CIGS RISE IN
THE AFTN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
122 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SOME CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.
BLENDED TO LATEST OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
TODAY SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT. EXPECT DRIER NORTHEASTERLY
SFC FLOW AROUND HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MOST PART ARE ABOVE FORECAST HIGHS...SO AFTERNOON CU
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED. THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW STRATOCU
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ONTARIO/SOUTHEAST MANITOBA THAT IS SLIDING
SOUTHWESTWARD...BUT LATEST RAP 925 HPA RH KEEPS THIS AREA OF
CLOUDS JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH STRONG DRYING ACROSS MOST OF
ND AND NORTHERN MN. REMOVED ALL POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ALL
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEPING PRECIP TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE/SKY/WIND GRIDS...BUT OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
NEEDED TO ADD A MENTION OF FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS ACROSS THE
EXTREME SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS VISIBILITIES AT STAPLES
AND ELBOW LAKE HAVE FALLEN BELOW A MILE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WITH 500MB
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STILL IN EFFECT AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. POPS FOR TODAY LIMITED
TO THE EXTREME SOUTH AS NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP THE MOST MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IN SD. MESOSCALE SOLNS HINT AT ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING S OF
THE CWFA IN E SD AND MOVING ACROSS S MN ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING.
ANY COMPLEX WHICH DEVELOPS IN E MT/ W ND WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
SASKATCHEWAN UNDER IN THE INFLUENCE OF THE APPROACHING 500MB LOW.
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. INITIATION WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AS UPDRAFTS
TAP ML CAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3000J/KG RANGE. BY LATE
AFTERNOON... WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH SOME SEVERE
STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS RISE TO 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT REACHING THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF THE UPPER LOW. 850MB TEMP/MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS 00Z
THURSDAY ON 30 TO 40KT SOUTHERLY LLJ. ELEVATED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH LIFTING TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT. SFC TROUGH TO MOVE INTO MN DURING THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE OVER NORTH
DAKOTA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THIS FEATURE...WHICH HAS RAISED
CONFIDENCE. THE BEST SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE ON FRIDAY...WITH
LOWERING CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD (AS THE UPPER
LOW PROPAGATES EASTWARD). TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME
BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR STRATUS COULD ENTER THE KDVL AREA AT SOME POINT
TOMORROW MORNING. WITH VIS UNRESTRICTED AND CIGS ONLY CIRRUS...THE
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WINDS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AND COULD GUST
ABOVE 15 KTS IN SOME SPOTS TODAY BUT WILL BECOME MORE CONSISTENTLY
EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP WITH 15 TO 20 KTS SUSTAINED
AND HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1015 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
TODAY SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT. EXPECT DRIER NORTHEASTERLY
SFC FLOW AROUND HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MOST PART ARE ABOVE FORECAST HIGHS...SO AFTERNOON CU
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED. THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW STRATOCU
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ONTARIO/SOUTHEAST MANITOBA THAT IS SLIDING
SOUTHWESTWARD...BUT LATEST RAP 925 HPA RH KEEPS THIS AREA OF
CLOUDS JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH STRONG DRYING ACROSS MOST OF
ND AND NORTHERN MN. REMOVED ALL POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ALL
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEPING PRECIP TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE/SKY/WIND GRIDS...BUT OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
NEEDED TO ADD A MENTION OF FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS ACROSS THE
EXTREME SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS VISIBILITIES AT STAPLES
AND ELBOW LAKE HAVE FALLEN BELOW A MILE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WITH 500MB
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STILL IN EFFECT AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. POPS FOR TODAY LIMITED
TO THE EXTREME SOUTH AS NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP THE MOST MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IN SD. MESOSCALE SOLNS HINT AT ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING S OF
THE CWFA IN E SD AND MOVING ACROSS S MN ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING.
ANY COMPLEX WHICH DEVELOPS IN E MT/ W ND WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
SASKATCHEWAN UNDER IN THE INFLUENCE OF THE APPROACHING 500MB LOW.
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. INITIATION WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AS UPDRAFTS
TAP ML CAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3000J/KG RANGE. BY LATE
AFTERNOON... WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH SOME SEVERE
STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS RISE TO 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT REACHING THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF THE UPPER LOW. 850MB TEMP/MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS 00Z
THURSDAY ON 30 TO 40KT SOUTHERLY LLJ. ELEVATED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH LIFTING TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT. SFC TROUGH TO MOVE INTO MN DURING THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE OVER NORTH
DAKOTA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THIS FEATURE...WHICH HAS RAISED
CONFIDENCE. THE BEST SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE ON FRIDAY...WITH
LOWERING CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD (AS THE UPPER
LOW PROPAGATES EASTWARD). TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
VFR TODAY...LIGHT WINDS. SCT-BKN CIRRUS EXPECTED.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
145 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATED DISCUSSION...S/WV IMPULSE
LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM NORTHEASTERN WYOMING TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MY SOUTHWEST. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE THROUGH 12Z...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS EXPANDING NORTH AND SLIGHTLY EAST WITH TIME
THIS MORNING. A STRONGER STORM OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT ALSO UNDERWAY BASED ON LATEST OBS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
CONVECTION SLOWLY DECREASING AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD TOWARDS
LOWER INSTABILITY. S/WV LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN
WYOMING WILL BE THE NEXT TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EARLY MORNING...SPREADING NORTH AND SLIGHTLY EAST
THROUGH THE AM HOURS.
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH SKY COVER AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTH AS A MOIST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTRIBUTES TO WIDESPREAD
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
FOLLOWING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 03 UTC AND THE 01-02 UTC
RAP/HRRR...CONVECTION AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE WITH SUNSET ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AS
IMPULSES CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
FOLLOWING THE 20-21 UTC RAP/HRRR RUNS...SUPPORTED BY STABLE 18 UTC
NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE LACK OF A CUMULUS FIELD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...REMOVED POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA
HIGHWAY 3. ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ISOLATED CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED.
HOWEVER...RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE LIMITING
INTENSITY. ML CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40
KTS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION...HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE ISOLATED. FINALLY...GIVEN UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW...DID ADD
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE...GO FIGURE.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH INTO WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA ALONG AN OLD
BOUNDARY. LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DEVELOPING BOUNDARY INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TRACKING EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BUMPED UP POPS TO
CHANCE CATEGORY IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP CONTINUE TO DIMINISH CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER EASTER
MONTANA...BUT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY...THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. CONSIDERED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT WITH THE INCREASED POTENTIAL HOLDING OFF
UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT MORE LIKE TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK. PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD ADDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE
FAR WEST AND WILL CONTINUE THIS AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT REGARDING MOVING THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD AND MOVING A RIDGE
INTO THE DAKOTAS BY THE WEEKEND.
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THE NEAR TERM PLACING THE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THURSDAY...AND
MOVING IT EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: ON TUESDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM A LOW OVER KANSAS NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
DURING THIS TIME THE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN
PLACE. A LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL
FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...AND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF CAPE AND SHEAR FOR SUSTAINING
THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. BY WEDNESDAY THE THREAT
IS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 85.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE NEAR
THE ND/MT/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE...WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: BY THE END OF THE WEEK THERE
WILL HAVE BEEN A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
- WITH THE ADDITIONAL THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND
BUILD A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER MONTANA/DAKOTAS. A FEW WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE WEAK RIDGE WILL RESULT IN ONLY
SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. KDIK REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO BE
IMPACTED. WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR FOG AND
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KDIK-KBIS AND POSSIBLY KISN AND
KJMS. KMOT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF THIS FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. NEXT 24 HOURS WILL SEE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALL LOCATIONS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1207 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
CONVECTION SLOWLY DECREASING AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD TOWARDS
LOWER INSTABILITY. S/WV LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN
WYOMING WILL BE THE NEXT TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EARLY MORNING...SPREADING NORTH AND SLIGHTLY EAST
THROUGH THE AM HOURS.
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH SKY COVER AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTH AS A MOIST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTRIBUTES TO WIDESPREAD
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
FOLLOWING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 03 UTC AND THE 01-02 UTC
RAP/HRRR...CONVECTION AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE WITH SUNSET ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AS
IMPULSES CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
FOLLOWING THE 20-21 UTC RAP/HRRR RUNS...SUPPORTED BY STABLE 18 UTC
NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE LACK OF A CUMULUS FIELD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...REMOVED POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA
HIGHWAY 3. ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ISOLATED CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED.
HOWEVER...RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE LIMITING
INTENSITY. ML CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40
KTS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION...HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE ISOLATED. FINALLY...GIVEN UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW...DID ADD
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE...GO FIGURE.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH INTO WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA ALONG AN OLD
BOUNDARY. LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DEVELOPING BOUNDARY INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TRACKING EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BUMPED UP POPS TO
CHANCE CATEGORY IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP CONTINUE TO DIMINISH CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER EASTER
MONTANA...BUT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY...THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. CONSIDERED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT WITH THE INCREASED POTENTIAL HOLDING OFF
UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT MORE LIKE TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK. PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD ADDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE
FAR WEST AND WILL CONTINUE THIS AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT REGARDING MOVING THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD AND MOVING A RIDGE
INTO THE DAKOTAS BY THE WEEKEND.
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THE NEAR TERM PLACING THE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THURSDAY...AND
MOVING IT EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: ON TUESDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM A LOW OVER KANSAS NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
DURING THIS TIME THE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN
PLACE. A LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL
FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...AND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF CAPE AND SHEAR FOR SUSTAINING
THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. BY WEDNESDAY THE THREAT
IS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 85.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE NEAR
THE ND/MT/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE...WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: BY THE END OF THE WEEK THERE
WILL HAVE BEEN A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
- WITH THE ADDITIONAL THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND
BUILD A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER MONTANA/DAKOTAS. A FEW WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE WEAK RIDGE WILL RESULT IN ONLY
SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. KDIK REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO BE
IMPACTED. WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR FOG AND
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KDIK AND POSSIBLY KISN AND KBIS.
KMOT AND KJMS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF THIS FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
918 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
OSCILLATE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WAVES OF CONVECTION REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WHERE BETTER FOCUSING MECHANISM AND UPPER ENERGY PRESENT. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE OUR AIRMASS. MODELS INDICATE
REMAINS OF MCS OVER LMIC/NRN IL AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST
NEAR LAKE ERIE LATER TODAY. BAND OF CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS THE
AIRMASS DESTABILIZES WITH FOCUS CLOSER TO LAKE ERIE.
A VERY WARM TO MARGINALLY HOT DAY IN STORE WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 90
SW HALF TO MID 80S IN THE FAR NE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE LOCATION OF QUASI STATIONARY
FRONT. CURRENTLY APPEARS HUNG UP ALONG SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF LAKE
ERIE INTO NW PA. MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AND MOVING ALONG BOUNDARY ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE DUE TO INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR. NAM FORECASTS CAPES BETWEEN 2000 J/KG TO 3000 J/KG AND
SHOULD BE ENOUGH BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION.
SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT WEDNESDAY. NAM DROPS FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF HOLD OFF THE FRONT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR
FORECAST USED THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY JUST KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING AS MODELS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO TRACK AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENCE IS THE WAY TO GO TODAY AS ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOOKED HARD TO FIND A REASON TO GO WITH A DRY
PERIOD BUT FAILED. WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO AT LEAST CHANCE POPS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD APPEAR
TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY. A JUICY AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S WHICH IS JUST A TAD WARMER
THAN NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIP REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. LATEST HRRR MODEL
SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS LOWER MI AND NW OH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS LIKE AS REASONABLE OF A SCENARIO AS ANY
SO WILL GO WITH A FEW HOURS OF TEMPO ALL AREAS BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. THE PATCHY FOG AND
HAZE SHOULD BURN OFF IN A COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MID AND HIGH CIGS
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY. SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. S TO SW FLOW
WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS MORNING FOG/MIST.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS OVER LAND WILL GET RIPPING TODAY BUT COOLER LAKE ERIE SHOULD
HOLD THE WINDS DOWN OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TILL A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY. THE FLOW
WILL BECOME VARIABLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL COME BACK NORTH
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY CAUSING THE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. IT APPEARS SUSTAINED WINDS MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL BE UNDER 15 KNOTS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE NEEDING ANY HEADLINES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
722 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
OSCILLATE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOUTHERN PORTION OF MCS HAS WEAKENED AS MOVED INTO LESS SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION SURGED AHEAD WITH UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITH A SECOND MCS NOW INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
SAID ALL THAT TO SAY THAT I BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF CONVECTION AND
LOWERED POPS FROM LIKELY TO CHANCE. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MCS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS SLOWING DOWN AND WEAKENING AS IT
COMES INTO LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. MAJORITY OF THE LINE WILL MOVE
ACROSS SE LOWER MICHIGAN STILL UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE TSRA WILL
EXTEND. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS. FOR TIMING LINE
LOOKS TO REACH NW OHIO BY MID MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE LOCATION OF QUASI STATIONARY
FRONT. CURRENTLY APPEARS HUNG UP ALONG SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF LAKE
ERIE INTO NW PA. MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AND MOVING ALONG BOUNDARY ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE DUE TO INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR. NAM FORECASTS CAPES BETWEEN 2000 J/KG TO 3000 J/KG AND
SHOULD BE ENOUGH BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION.
SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT WEDNESDAY. NAM DROPS FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF HOLD OFF THE FRONT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR
FORECAST USED THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY JUST KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING AS MODELS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO TRACK AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENCE IS THE WAY TO GO TODAY AS ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOOKED HARD TO FIND A REASON TO GO WITH A DRY
PERIOD BUT FAILED. WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO AT LEAST CHANCE POPS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD APPEAR
TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY. A JUICY AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S WHICH IS JUST A TAD WARMER
THAN NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIP REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. LATEST HRRR MODEL
SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS LOWER MI AND NW OH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS LIKE AS REASONABLE OF A SCENARIO AS ANY
SO WILL GO WITH A FEW HOURS OF TEMPO ALL AREAS BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. THE PATCHY FOG AND
HAZE SHOULD BURN OFF IN A COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MID AND HIGH CIGS
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY. SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER DESTABILAZION. S TO SW FLOW
WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS MORNING FOG/MIST.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS OVER LAND WILL GET RIPPING TODAY BUT COOLER LAKE ERIE SHOULD
HOLD THE WINDS DOWN OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TILL A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY. THE FLOW
WILL BECOME VARIABLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL COME BACK NORTH
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY CAUSING THE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. IT APPEARS SUSTAINED WINDS MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL BE UNDER 15 KNOTS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE NEEDING ANY HEADLINES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
813 AM PDT TUE JUN 17 2014
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO REFLECT AN INCREASE
IN POPS AND QPF FOR THIS AREA DURING THE MORNING. OTHERWISE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO RAP AROUND MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA TODAY AND THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPDT AND
KALW. LARGE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL WRAP RAIN INTO EASTERN OREGON AND
SE WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AFFECTING MOSTLY KALW AND
KPDT. AT THOSE SITES COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SCT-BKN CEILINGS AT 4-6 THOUSAND FEET AND MID AND
HIGH OVC ABOVE. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10-15 KT...EXCEPT 15 TO
25 KT AT KDLS TODAY. 78
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 425 AM PDT TUE JUN 17 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE REGION. THE CENTER OF THE
LOW IS OVER NORTHEAST OREGON THIS MORNING WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD AND BE OVER CENTRAL IDAHO BY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF LOBES OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. THE FIRST IS
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND WILL BE SWEEPING
ACROSS OREGON THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND
IS MOVING FROM WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN IDAHO INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL DROP INTO SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
PRODUCING A PERIOD OF STEADY PRECIPITATION. THE 24 HOUR
PRECIPITATION TOTAL FOR THIS AREA COULD SEE A QUARTER TO HALF AN
INCH OF RAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME TOTALS HIGHER THAN HALF AN INCH IN THE BLUE AND WALLOWA
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET SO COULD SEE A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE HIGHER PEAKS
AROUND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF
INTO WESTERN MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION DWINDLING OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY BUT BEGIN
TO REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND BE REPLACED BY A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FLOW WILL BE SPLIT BETWEEN WEST AND
SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL REBOUND ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM
WEDNESDAYS. INITIALLY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...AND SHORT LIVED...BUT IT WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A MUCH LARGER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS
WILL PROVIDE WARMER AND POTENTIALLY DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
COOLER AIR...WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL LIKELY KEEP CONDITIONS WARM...BUT
MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIN UP WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE THE LOW AWAY
FROM THE OR/WA COAST BACK OVER THE PACIFIC...DUE TO THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. BUT THE POSITION OF THE LOW
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE TO BE
TRANSPORTED OVER THE AREA...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE
ANTICIPATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THUNDER IS EXPECTED
MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON...AND PERHAPS CENTRAL
OREGON AT TIMES. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT THE WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA COULD TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE NORMAL
DIURNAL PERIOD...AND BREEZY SURFACE WINDS COULD RESULT FROM THESE
DISTURBANCES TOO...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT
CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE INTO THE FORECAST. OVERALL DESPITE THE
COOLER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEST TO DOMINATE AND PROVIDE WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 80S...AND
POSSIBLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S BY MONDAY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...INCREASING TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SUNDAY ONWARD.
EXPECT MOUNTAIN HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WEBER
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS UNDER STRONGER
SHOWERS...WILL AMEND TAFS AS NEEDED SINCE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. WEST
WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP AGAIN AFTER 15Z TODAY. CEILINGS WILL BE
MOSTLY SCT-BKN AT 4-6KFT AND BKN-OVC AT 8-10KFT. WEBER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 62 49 76 51 / 50 70 10 0
ALW 62 53 77 55 / 60 80 20 10
PSC 68 53 81 54 / 60 60 10 0
YKM 71 51 79 52 / 20 10 0 0
HRI 67 51 79 52 / 40 60 10 0
ELN 70 51 78 52 / 20 10 10 0
RDM 63 36 74 40 / 20 10 10 0
LGD 52 46 68 46 / 60 90 30 10
GCD 54 42 71 45 / 40 70 10 0
DLS 70 53 78 55 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
97/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
755 AM PDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO REFLECT AN INCREASE
IN POPS AND QPF FOR THIS AREA DURING THE MORNING. OTHERWISE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO RAP AROUND MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA TODAY AND THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 425 AM PDT TUE JUN 17 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE REGION. THE CENTER OF THE
LOW IS OVER NORTHEAST OREGON THIS MORNING WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD AND BE OVER CENTRAL IDAHO BY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF LOBES OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. THE FIRST IS
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND WILL BE SWEEPING
ACROSS OREGON THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND
IS MOVING FROM WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN IDAHO INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL DROP INTO SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
PRODUCING A PERIOD OF STEADY PRECIPITATION. THE 24 HOUR
PRECIPITATION TOTAL FOR THIS AREA COULD SEE A QUARTER TO HALF AN
INCH OF RAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME TOTALS HIGHER THAN HALF AN INCH IN THE BLUE AND WALLOWA
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET SO COULD SEE A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE HIGHER PEAKS
AROUND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF
INTO WESTERN MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION DWINDLING OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY BUT BEGIN
TO REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND BE REPLACED BY A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FLOW WILL BE SPLIT BETWEEN WEST AND
SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL REBOUND ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM
WEDNESDAYS. INITIALLY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...AND SHORT LIVED...BUT IT WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A MUCH LARGER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS
WILL PROVIDE WARMER AND POTENTIALLY DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
COOLER AIR...WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL LIKELY KEEP CONDITIONS WARM...BUT
MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIN UP WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE THE LOW AWAY
FROM THE OR/WA COAST BACK OVER THE PACIFIC...DUE TO THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. BUT THE POSITION OF THE LOW
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE TO BE
TRANSPORTED OVER THE AREA...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE
ANTICIPATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THUNDER IS EXPECTED
MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON...AND PERHAPS CENTRAL
OREGON AT TIMES. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT THE WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA COULD TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE NORMAL
DIURNAL PERIOD...AND BREEZY SURFACE WINDS COULD RESULT FROM THESE
DISTURBANCES TOO...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT
CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE INTO THE FORECAST. OVERALL DESPITE THE
COOLER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEST TO DOMINATE AND PROVIDE WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 80S...AND
POSSIBLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S BY MONDAY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...INCREASING TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SUNDAY ONWARD.
EXPECT MOUNTAIN HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WEBER
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS UNDER STRONGER
SHOWERS...WILL AMEND TAFS AS NEEDED SINCE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. WEST
WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP AGAIN AFTER 15Z TODAY. CEILINGS WILL BE
MOSTLY SCT-BKN AT 4-6KFT AND BKN-OVC AT 8-10KFT. WEBER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 62 49 76 51 / 50 70 10 0
ALW 62 53 77 55 / 60 80 20 10
PSC 68 53 81 54 / 60 60 10 0
YKM 71 51 79 52 / 20 10 0 0
HRI 67 51 79 52 / 40 60 10 0
ELN 70 51 78 52 / 20 10 10 0
RDM 63 36 74 40 / 20 10 10 0
LGD 52 46 68 46 / 60 90 30 10
GCD 54 42 71 45 / 40 70 10 0
DLS 70 53 78 55 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
97/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PENDLETON OR
1000 PM PDT MON JUN 16 2014
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.UPDATE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL LINGER
WEDNESDAY OVER THE BLUES AND WALLOWA COUNTY. COONFIELD
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS THOUGH STRONGER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER
21Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AFTER 15-18Z TUESDAY.
CEILINGS WILL BE MOSTLY SCT-BKN AT 4-6 THOUSAND FEET AND BKN-OVC AT
8-10 THOUSAND FEET. 76
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 215 PM PDT MON JUN 16 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING PRODUCING SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLD
TSRA. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ANY TSRA SHOULD DISSIPATE AND
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD LESSEN. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVES INTO IDAHO TOMORROW BUT RAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR AREA SO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TWO STATE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE BY THURSDAY
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WA/OR AND OUR AREA SHOULD
EXPERIENCE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE REGION WILL BECOME
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING S-SW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE
PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD TO
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER ELEVATION HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S
BY SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS 55-60F. AT THE SAME TIME THERE WILL BE
A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS SUCH THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY EXTEND NORTHWARD ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. FOR NOW WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
AND KEPT THE LOWER BASINS DRY BECAUSE THE ECMWF MODEL WAS LESS
EMPHATIC ABOUT THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW...KEEPING THE FLOW MORE
WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER/MORE STABLE. 78
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 45 62 49 76 / 20 30 20 10
ALW 50 64 53 77 / 20 40 30 10
PSC 52 70 53 82 / 20 30 20 10
YKM 46 71 50 78 / 20 20 10 10
HRI 49 67 50 80 / 20 20 20 10
ELN 47 70 51 75 / 30 20 10 10
RDM 34 61 35 73 / 20 20 10 10
LGD 43 55 45 70 / 30 40 30 20
GCD 39 56 41 73 / 20 20 30 10
DLS 51 70 53 78 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
76/76/76
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
753 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A
SEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD YIELD A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
730 PM EDT UPDATE...A FEW LINGERING -SHRA/TSTMS ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF
THE CWFA WITH A DIMINISHING TREND AS INSTABILITY WANES AND ATMOS
REMAINS NEGLIGIBLY FORCED ALOFT. A COUPLE TSTMS MAY PUSH INTO THE
SMOKIES...BUT NOTHING STRONG OR SEVERE WILL DEVELOP. THERE IS A GOOD
AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CI WHICH WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. CUT
BACK HR/LY TEMPS A BIT ACROSS MOST LOCALES TO ACCOUNT FOR REDUCED
HEATING AND POPS WERE ADJ FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
430 PM EDT UPDATE...SEVERE STORMS ARE BUILDING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
FROM THE NW NC PIEDMONT SW INTO THE ERN UPSTATE. NOT MUCH STORM
MOTION WITH THESE STORMS AND SVR WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN A HUGE
THREAT...HOWEVER A LOCALIZED WET DOWNBURST IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS THE STORMS NEAR AN AREA OF HIGHER DCAPE. LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
AS OF 200 PM...CONVECTION IS BLOSSOMING MORE READILY THAN YESTERDAY
ACRS THE MTNS. I UPDATED THE POP TO TRY TO MATCH TRENDS. MOST OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN LOOKS TO GET WORKED OVER BY THE CONVECTION BY SUNSET.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON HOW MUCH WILL DEVELOP ACRS THE
PIEDMONT. STORM MOTION IS VERY SLOW...AND CELLS HAVE GENERALLY
WEAKENED SO FAR AS THEY TRY TO ROLL OFF THE ESCARPMENT.
HOWEVER...THE VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A CUMULUS FIELD GETTING MORE
ROBUST...WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLD STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF CHARLOTTE.
THE 15Z-16Z HRRR RUNS ARE SHOWING A CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING
SOUTH CHARLOTTE...WITH OUTFLOW FANNING OUT AND TRIGGERING NEW CELLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. THE HRRR
TENDS TO BE OVERDONE...BUT IT DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL. SO I DID
INCREASE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT...BUT STILL GENERALLY
SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...IT LOOKS LIKE
CELLS ARE TOPPING OUT JUST SHORT OF OBJECTIVE CRITERIA SO FAR. LAPS
CAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS 3000-4000 J/KG ACRS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT. SO I
THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS...WITH QUARTER-SIZE
HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.
TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHUD WANE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. SIMILAR TO
LAST COUPLE NIGHTS...CLOUDS SHUD DISSIPATE AND WINDS REMAIN
CALM/LIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME VLY FOG IN THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S MTNS AND UPR 60S TO LWR 70S PIEDMONT.
THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HELPING
WEAKEN THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE ATOP THE CWFA. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE SHOWS
ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE ENVIRONMENT FOR OUR AREA. SO EXPECT
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH SCT-NUM AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE MTNS AND
ISOLD-SCT IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN FROM THE EAST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OFF THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH
CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT
NEAR THE SC BORDER ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM IS SLIGHT FARTHER
NORTH. IN ANY EVENT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS BOUNDARY. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW A BIT MORE
SHEAR BY THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS MODEST. ALTHOUGH
STEERING FLOW IS BETTER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...MOVING CELLS
ALONG...SOME CONCERN EXISTS FOR REPEAT CELLS TRAINING EAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH SO ALONG INTERSTATE 40 WHERE
CLOUD COVER WILL BE BEST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z
ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST AND BROAD UPPER
TROFFING TO OUR NE. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT EARLY IN
THE PERIOD BEFORE ANOTHER...DEEPER UPPER TROF DIGS DOWN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE TROF AXIS TO OUR NORTH BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE. THE LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER A FAIR AMOUNT WRT THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER TROF WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A MORE AMPLIFIED AND
COHERENT SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP THE
TROF 1 TO 2 DAYS EARLIER AND KEEPS IT FARTHER NORTH AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. DIURNAL POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT ON BOTH MON AND TUES
NEXT WEEK TO REFLECT GENERALLY MORE MOIST GUIDANCE. OTHER THAN
THAT...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SENSIBLE FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...NOT MUCH BUT UPPER CLOUDS OVER THE AIRFIELD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. UPPER HEIGHTS FALL
A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT LOW LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS
PERSISTENT. THUS...WILL ANTICIPATE SCT CU/TCU DEVELOPMENT AROUND 18Z
OR SO WITH PROB30 TSTMS AFT 20Z.
ELSEWHERE...SOME MFVR VSBY CONCERN IS HAD AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KAND
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS THROUGH DAYBREAK. BASICALLY ALL THE
SITES WHICH RECEIVED DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL PERSIST...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION INDICATED WITH A PROB30 ALL SITES AFT
20Z...EARLIER ARND KAVL AND KHKY AT 18Z AND 19Z RESPECTIVELY.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE MTNS. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR DURING TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN
VALLEYS EACH MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM OVER AREAS OF
RECENT RAINFALL.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 91% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 91% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 87% HIGH 91% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STAARMANN
NEAR TERM...ARK/SBK
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
212 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ATOP THE SOUTHEAST REGION
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 210 AM...COVERAGE OF MON SHRA/TSRA RESULTED IN MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. CLEARING SKY
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD FAVOR FOG DEVELOPING DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOG TIMING AND
PLACEMENT.
AS OF 1015 PM EDT MONDAY...LOCAL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO STABILIZE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING THEREFORE...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND TRIM POPS
ACROSS THE NC/SC PIEDMONT WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION ON A
DOWNWARD POP TREND. LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALL BUT CLEARED AS COOLING
EFFECTS FLATTEN LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO ONLY A FEW
SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS. EARLIER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE TO FOG POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
AND DECOUPLES...THUS NO CHANGES MADE REGARDING AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS AND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
LASTLY...ALSO MADE TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
EXTREME NEAR TERM TO REFLECT LATEST SURFACE OBS WHICH WERE IMPACTED
BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW LEADING TO A RATHER SPORADIC TEMPERATURE
FIELD ACROSS THE REGION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 200 PM...WELL AS ADVERTISED BY THE GSO/FFC SNDGS THIS
MORNING...THERE IS NO INHIBITION...AND HENCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHWRS AND TSTMS HAVE BLOSSOMED QUICKLY ACRS THE CWFA...DESPITE LARGE
HIGH PRES SYSTEM ATOP THE REGION. THE LAPS AND RAP BOTH SHOW 2500 TO
OVER 4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. SO I HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FURTHER FROM
PREVIOUS UPDATE...WITH SOLID CHC TO LIKELY POP ACRS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...AND CHC POP OVER PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE PIEDMONT. PWATS
ARE 125-150% OF NORMAL AND STORMS ARE SLOW-MOVERS...SO ISOLD HEAVY
RAIN/FLOOD THREAT LOOKS TO EXIST IN ADDITION TO A SMALL WET
MICROBURST THREAT. LARGE HAIL LOOKS MORE UNLIKELY...BUT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE HIGH SBCAPE.
STORMS SHUD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING SOME LINGER MID
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS INTO THE LATE EVENING. WITH HIGH PRES STILL IN
PLACE...WINDS SHUD BE LIGHT AND ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG...ESP IN
THE MTN VLYS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 60S MTNS AND UPR
60S TO LWR 70S PIEDMONT (ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL).
TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED...WITH MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON 500 MB HIGH AROUND 592 DAM CENTERED JUST TO OUR
WEST. PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AND STRONG INSOLATION SHUD RESULT IN
ANOTHER UNCAPPED...MOD-HIGHLY UNSTABLE DAY. SO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACRS THE AREA...STARTING IN THE MTNS
EARLY AFTN. A SMALL PULSE SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY EXIST
AGAIN...GIVEN SIMILAR PROFILES. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...NO SURPRISES WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE IN THE
SHORT TERM. AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH
EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
THAT MEANS WE CAN EXPECT THE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT COULD BE IN PLAY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS SOME OF THE
MODELS ACTIVATE THE LEE TROUGH. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT THAT COVERAGE
WOULD SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE DUE TO GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE UNDER UPPER HIGH. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN
THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE SCT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND A
COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE ON WED...AND 8-10 DEGEREES ABOVE AVE
ON THU ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...STARTING 00Z FRI...THE 500MB RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE SE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE VORTICITY CENTERS PASSING MOSTLY TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD INDICATE THE NUMBER OF MCS
OR MCC CROSSING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. ONE OF THESE VORT
CENTERS CROSSES THE MID APPALACHIANS SATURDAY...BUT THE ECMWF HAS IT
ARRIVING SATURDAY MORNING AND GFS HAS IT WASHING OUT AS IT ARRIVES
LATE SATURDAY. THIS COULD BOOST THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON SATURDAY...MAINLY FOR THE MTNS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
CROSSING TN AND KY ON MONDAY. MODELS SHOW A CLUSTER OF VORTS OVER
THE LOWER MISS VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK POISED TO MOVE IN OUR
DIRECTION. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT NEXT MONDAY WITH
THE GFS HAVING A SIGNIFICANT 500MB TROUGH DIVING SE OVER MISS VALLEY
AND EC HAVING A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WHOLE NATION. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CONTINUED VERY WARM TEMPS. IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...GFS HAS
GREATEST CAPE VALUES LATE SATURDAY OVER NE GA TO SW NC MTNS WITH
AROUND 2500 AT THAT TIME. SEEMS MORE REASONABLE IN THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT WINDS WILL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL INDICATES THAT WET
SOILS EXIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. BASED ON RECENT MORNING
OBSERVATIONS AND MON RAINFALL...I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE 10Z TO 12Z TIME
WINDOW FOR TEMPO MVFR FOG. THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...SW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT CU WITH BASES AROUND 060. I WILL CONTINUE THE
PROB30 GROUP FROM 21Z THROUGH 24Z FOR TSRA.
ELSEWHERE...COVERAGE OF MON SHRA/TSRA RESULTED IN MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE TERMINALS...WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SURROUNDING
AREAS. CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD FAVOR FOG
DEVELOPING DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. KAVL WILL LIKELY SEE IFR
CEILINGS FROM TIME TO TIME EARLY THIS MORNING. THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT CU WITH BASES BETWEEN
050-070. AT ALL TERMINALS...I WILL CONTINUE THE PROB30 GROUP FROM
21Z THROUGH 24Z FOR TSRA.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE MTNS. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR DURING TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN VALLEYS
EACH MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM OVER AREAS OF RECENT
RAINFALL.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 87% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 91% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1241 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.UPDATE...
INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON BY A FEW DEGREES IN
MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON EARLY AFTERNOON TRENDS. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE NEAR THE DRYLINE...AND HAVE
TWEAKED POPS ACCORDINGLY. IF STORMS DEVELOP...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A
FEW COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
KB
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CHANCES/COVERAGE APPEAR TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS. KAMA LOOKS TO HAVE THE RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCE
OF THE THREE TERMINALS...BUT STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION ATTM. OUTSIDE
OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
KB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014/
DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE HAS RETREATED OVERNIGHT...AND HAS CLEARED ALL BUT FAR
NORTHWEST CORNER OF FORECAST AREA. RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTS RICH
MOISTURE EAST OF DRYLINE...WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS IN THE 12 TO 17
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. VAD WIND PROFILES FROM KAMA
88D DEPICT EXISTING SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 5000 FEET OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...SO DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE. THUS...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL BUT NORTHWEST PART OF
FORECAST AREA.
WITH DEEP...RICH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SLIP INTO THE AREA AND EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. 03
COCKRELL
FIRE WEATHER...
20-FOOT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
LIKELY MEET ELEVATED AND/OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER METEOROLOGICAL
CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COMBINED PANHANDLES TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND SUBSEQUENT VEGETATIVE
GREEN UP IN THESE AREAS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW. THEREFORE...
THE ISSUANCE OF ANY FIRE WEATHER BULLETINS IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
LIGHTER WINDS...HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND OPPORTUNITIES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 03
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
08/02
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
538 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH GUST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. CONVECTION
REMAINS A CONCERN FOR TODAY MAINLY AT KAMA AND POSSIBLY AT KGUY.
THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CAUSE CONFIDENCE
ISSUES ON INCLUDING IN PREVAILING CONDITIONS. SHOULD ANY CONVECTION
IMPACT THE TERMINALS IT IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AFTER 18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014/
DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE HAS RETREATED OVERNIGHT...AND HAS CLEARED ALL BUT FAR
NORTHWEST CORNER OF FORECAST AREA. RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTS RICH
MOISTURE EAST OF DRYLINE...WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS IN THE 12 TO 17
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. VAD WIND PROFILES FROM KAMA
88D DEPICT EXISTING SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 5000 FEET OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...SO DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE. THUS...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL BUT NORTHWEST PART OF
FORECAST AREA.
WITH DEEP...RICH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SLIP INTO THE AREA AND EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. 03
COCKRELL
FIRE WEATHER...
20-FOOT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
LIKELY MEET ELEVATED AND/OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER METEOROLOGICAL
CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COMBINED PANHANDLES TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND SUBSEQUENT VEGETATIVE
GREEN UP IN THESE AREAS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW. THEREFORE...
THE ISSUANCE OF ANY FIRE WEATHER BULLETINS IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
LIGHTER WINDS...HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND OPPORTUNITIES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 03
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
14/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
407 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE HAS RETREATED OVERNIGHT...AND HAS CLEARED ALL BUT FAR
NORTHWEST CORNER OF FORECAST AREA. RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTS RICH
MOISTURE EAST OF DRYLINE...WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS IN THE 12 TO 17
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. VAD WIND PROFILES FROM KAMA
88D DEPICT EXISTING SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 5000 FEET OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...SO DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE. THUS...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL BUT NORTHWEST PART OF
FORECAST AREA.
WITH DEEP...RICH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SLIP INTO THE AREA AND EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. 03
COCKRELL
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
20-FOOT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
LIKELY MEET ELEVATED AND/OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER METEOROLOGICAL
CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COMBINED PANHANDLES TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND SUBSEQUENT VEGETATIVE
GREEN UP IN THESE AREAS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW. THEREFORE...
THE ISSUANCE OF ANY FIRE WEATHER BULLETINS IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
LIGHTER WINDS...HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND OPPORTUNITIES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 94 67 91 67 90 / 30 20 30 30 30
BEAVER OK 100 70 97 68 90 / 30 20 30 30 30
BOISE CITY OK 98 62 94 61 88 / 10 10 10 20 20
BORGER TX 97 71 94 70 92 / 30 20 30 30 30
BOYS RANCH TX 99 67 96 65 93 / 20 20 20 30 30
CANYON TX 94 67 92 67 91 / 30 20 30 30 30
CLARENDON TX 94 70 93 69 91 / 30 30 30 30 30
DALHART TX 97 61 94 62 89 / 20 20 10 20 20
GUYMON OK 99 67 94 66 89 / 20 20 20 30 20
HEREFORD TX 94 66 92 64 89 / 30 20 20 30 30
LIPSCOMB TX 96 71 95 70 90 / 30 30 30 30 30
PAMPA TX 95 68 92 66 89 / 30 30 30 30 30
SHAMROCK TX 97 72 94 69 90 / 20 30 30 30 30
WELLINGTON TX 97 72 95 70 93 / 20 30 30 30 30
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
14/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
251 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTH INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
AND A SHARPENING PIEDMONT TROUGH. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT A
LITTLE BUT ARE STILL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
THE CWA...WHICH IS YIELDING AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE EAST
OF THE RIDGES. DUE TO A LITTLE MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE... DCAPE
ISNT QUITE AS HIGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WAS IT WAS YESTERDAY...BUT
SPC MESOANALYSIS STILL SHOWS AROUND 1000 J/KG. FORCING IS WEAK
AND TIED TO MAINLY OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION SEEMINGLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE.
STORMS WILL BE SLOW TO DRIFT EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW AND MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE
STRONGEST STORMS AND/OR MERGING OUTFLOWS COULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
CONVECTION WILL DWINDLE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...MOSTLY IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70...MAYBE SOME UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT TUESDAY...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. WHILE INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG DUE TO SLIGHTLY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN FORM ALONG THE RIDGES
AND SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. PW RISES ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...HIGHEST SO FAR
THIS WEEK...SO SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS MAY HAVE A BETTER
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
THAN TODAY...UPPER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MID 90S TOWARD THE
PIEDMONT.
A TRAIN OF MCS`S OVER THE MIDWEST STATES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD INTO OHIO VALLEY HEADING INTO THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WELL WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND SCATTERED POCKETS OF QPF ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES
OF THE CWA APPEARS TO OVERDONE PRIOR TO 12Z THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE FORM THE WEST...HOWEVER...AND LOWS WILL BE VERY
MILD ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...
FOR THU THROUGH FRI NIGHT: WE SHOULD SEE GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS A MID LEVEL VORTEX SITS AND
SPINS OVER ERN CANADA... WAVES ROTATING AROUND ITS BASE WILL BRUSH
THE CWA. IN PARTICULAR... THE REMNANT MCV FROM WHAT THE ECMWF/NAM
PORTRAYS AS AN MCS OVER NRN IL LATE THU NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
TO THE ESE... APPROACHING THE CWA THU AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING WITH PW VALUES RISING TO 1.75-1.9 INCHES... AND BUFR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW MBE VELOCITY... GENERALLY UNDER 6
KTS... WITH MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE RESULT SHOULD BE
SLOW-MOVING WET STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPS SHOULD HOLD ABOVE NORMAL... FOLLOWING
THICKNESS TRENDS... WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S... AND LOWS
IN THE 60S.
FOR SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT: WE STAY IN A GENTLY CYCLONIC BUT LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW... ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LARGE
VORTEX WOBBLING OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE COMPACT MID LEVEL
LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK ROUGHLY EASTWARD NEAR THE CENTRAL US/CANADA
BORDER LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WILL WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY SHEAR AS IT
CROSSES THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND (WITH VARYING SPEEDS
AMONG THE MODELS SOLUTIONS). PROPELLED BY ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE EASTERN CANADA VORTEX... THE SURFACE BACKDOOR
FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DIP A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE
CWA OVER THE WEEKEND... HOLDING TO OUR NE BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
PROVIDE A PATH FOR MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS TO TRAVERSE THE REGION...
SPAWNING GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS... WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE FOCUSED DURING (BUT NOT LIMITED TO) THE TYPICAL DIURNAL
TIME WINDOWS. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE HIGHEST
SHOWERS/STORM CHANCES WILL BE SAT MIDDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON.
THICKNESSES REMAIN 5-15 M ABOVE NORMAL... SO WILL HOLD ONTO HIGHS IN
THE 80S TO LOWER 90S... WITH CONFIDENCE REDUCED BY POTENTIAL EARLY-
DAY CONVECTION LIMITING HEATING ESPECIALLY ON SAT.
FOR MON/TUE: MORE OF THE SAME... WITH A SLOW WNW FLOW PATTERN WITH
WEAK IMPULSES TRACKING ROUGHLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA (BETWEEN THE
MARITIME VORTEX RETREATING NORTHWARD AND THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER AND
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST)... SOUTH OF AN INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE
FRONTAL ZONE JUST NORTH OF THE OH VALLEY. EXPECT A CONTINUED THREAT
OF SCATTERED SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS... AGAIN PRIMARILY (BUT
NOT ONLY) OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE GFS
REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THE UPPER-MIDWEST WAVE AS IT CROSSES
MI... PLACING THE CWA IN A BIT STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WITH GREATER
MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND THUS MUCH GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. WITH INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS
AT THIS RANGE... WILL KEEP POPS AS A GOOD CHANCE FOR NOW... ALTHOUGH
IF THE GFS IS CORRECT WE MAY NEED TO BUMP THEM UP TO LIKELY OR
HIGHER. THIS PATTERN FAVORS TEMPS CONTINUING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1205 PM EDT TUESDAY...
A STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACE WILL KEEP AVIATION CONDITIONS AND TRENDS
SIMILAR TO THE PAST 24 HOURS. OVERNIGHT FOG IN VALLEYS AND DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING LIFTED QUICKLY THIS MORNING... AND RESULTING VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE INTO THIS EVENING... WITH SCT-BKN
VFR CUMULUS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE STILL LIKELY TO
DEVELOP... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT ANY ONE TAF AREA WILL
BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED... AND WILL STICK WITH VCTS MENTIONS DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODEL RUNS SHOW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT STARTING NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD... WITH GREATER COVERAGE NEAR LYH/DAN/ROA THAN THE MORE
WESTERN SITES OF BCB/BLF/LWB... SO AVIATION INTERESTS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE HAVE A SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE OF BEING IMPACTED
BY LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN/NEAR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AND CIRCUMNAVIGABLE
GIVEN THE VERY WEAK WIND FIELD AND MARGINAL MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN... BUT LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE LIKELY IN AND
NEAR ANY STORMS. WITH LOSS OF HEATING... ANY STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE SOON AFTER 02Z. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS... EXPECT
REMNANT MID CLOUDS LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION HERE AND UPSTREAM... AND
WITH PERSISTENCE RULING... PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE IN VALLEY
AND LOW AREAS 07Z-12Z... MOST LIKELY AT LWB... ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE OF
LESSER IMPACT AND SHORTER DURATION GIVEN THE EXPECTED OFFSET
PRESENCE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS. ONCE ANY FOG LIFTS AND MIXES
WED MORNING... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 13Z AND
HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND... WITH THE GREATEST AVIATION THREATS
BEING THE SCATTERED DAYTIME CONVECTION AND THE ATTENDANT STRONG
VARIABLE/GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE HAIL. COVERAGE APPEARS LOW FOR WED
AFTERNOON... MAINLY ISOLATED STORMS AND MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT S/W
SITES SUCH AS BLF/BCB/DAN... GIVEN THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE MID
LEVELS. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DIP SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA THU...
AND EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS THU AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH
THU NIGHT AND ON FRI AS WELL. A WEAK FLOW PATTERN HOLDING OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL KEEP THE BETTER STORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING SAT/SUN. AREAS OF IFR FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING... PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN THE
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON. THE MOST OPTIMAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS EACH DAY
SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING AFTER FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIFT
AND BURN OFF... AND BEFORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION REDEVELOPS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
LOCATIONS RECORDS (6/17) (6/18)
ROANOKE 96/1944 97/1925
LYNCHBURG 96/1944 96/1944
DANVILLE 99/1981 96/2007
BLACKSBURG 88/1994 88/2007
BLUEFIELD 86/2007 90/2007
LEWISBURG 86/1996 88/2007
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLS
NEAR TERM...BLS
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
CLIMATE...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
703 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE BEING SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH HEADS EAST
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY WEEKS END AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...
OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
5H RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SE RESULTING IN A WEAK WEST TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER THE REGION REMAINS JUST FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO ALLOW PARCELS TO BREAK THROUGH THE
CAP ALOFT ESPCLY WHERE ORIGINATED BY OROGRAPHICS/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING...AND THEN DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP
FOR ADDED ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
PASSING OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM MONDAY AND EVEN LESS SUPPORT
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE ALOFT TODAY. HOWEVER MOST GUIDANCE
AGAIN SHOWING INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
WITH OUTFLOW WORKING MORE NORTH THAN EAST TODAY...PERHAPS
RESULTING IN A FEW MORE TSRA ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST PER
LATEST HRRR AND HIRES ARW. INSTABILITY AGAIN LOOKS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE PER FORECAST 2-3K J/KG CAPES SOUTH-EAST AND DRY AIR
ALOFT OVERTOP STEEP LAPSES. HOWEVER LIGHT LOW LEVEL WEST WINDS MAY
TEND TO DETER COVERAGE FROM THE NEW RIVER VALLEY NORTH TO
GREENBRIER WHERE MODELS DO SHOW LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. THUS AFTER
SOME PATCHY FOG HAVE BASICALLY SHOTGUNNED IN SCATTERED POPS WITH
FOCUS MORE IN AREAS THAT SAW LESS RAINFALL ON MONDAY. OTRW
20-30ISH POPS INTO EARLY EVENING WITH ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE
GIVEN HIGH DCAPES AND POTENTIAL CLUSTERING OF STORMS UNDER WEAK
STEERING ALOFT.
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID DAY WITH WESTERN RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE PER THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW AS EXPECT HIGHS 1-3 DEGREES WARMER GIVEN
SLIGHT 85H WARMING AND PERHAPS A BIT LESS CONVECTION UNDER
SUNSHINE.
APPEARS ANY EARLY CONVECTION TO QUICKLY FADE PER LACK OF UPPER
SUPPORT WITH SKIES TURNING PC TO MOSTLY CLEAR ALLOWING MORE
PATCHY FOG LATE UNDER THE RIDGING. LOWS AGAIN BASICALLY IN THE 60S
EXCEPT LIKELY STAYING ABOVE 70 IN SPOTS GIVEN MOISTURE AROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAIN JUST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH AND AN 850 MB HIGH WILL BE VERTICALLY STACKED AND CENTERED
OVER TENNESSEE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST...THEN WEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE 850 MB HIGH. THIS
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL PUSH RICH MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION.
THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE BEST CAPPING
INVERSION WEST OF THE AREA WILL YIELD DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SWODY2 HAS PLACED
THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO OUR NORTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
EASTWARD TO NEW JERSEY WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS
INVOF OF WARM FRONT WITH BEST DYNAMICS. WITH WEST WINDS AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 C...HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
THE MID 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE
PIEDMONT. RECORD HIGHS LISTED IN CLIMATE SECTION. NO REAL ESCAPE
FROM THE HEAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH
READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN
THE PIEDMONT.
ON THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL
SEND A BACKDOOR FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST TO THE MID
90S IN THE SOUTHEAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. USED HPCGUIDE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND
PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE AS UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS WHILE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. STAYING CLOSE TO WHAT WE
FORECASTED YESTERDAY IN TERMS OF KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE...DUE TO TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES RACING ALONG THE SRN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. ALL IN ALL EVEN THOUGH WILL HAVE POPS NO
HIGHER THAN 50-55...STILL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AT LEAST MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME.
WILL BE CONCERNED WITH MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND TRAINING
ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING IF IT TRACKS OVER THE SAME SPOT. STILL TOO EARLY TO MENTION
IN THE HWO...BUT BEARS WATCHING. AS THE AIRMASS HEATS UP PRIOR TO
THIS...PLENTY OF FUEL TO ADD TO THE PROVERBIAL FIRE ONCE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT LEAST FRI-SAT TO SEE
SOME SVR STORM THREAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS. CURRENTLY SPC
HIGHLIGHTING LOW PREDICTABILITY GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR AND TIMING OF
THE WAVES.
MODELS DIFFER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF FASTER
NOW WITH FROPA AND SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE EAST BY MONDAY. THIS
MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING INCONSISTENCY SO WILL LEAN TOWARD 00Z GFS/06Z
GFS AND WPC FORECAST. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE FRONT AND KEEP US IN A STICKY AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL BE STAYING
ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION UPSTREAM AND STORMS
OVERHEAD CAN HINDER THE HEAT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S...NEAR 70 SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT TUESDAY...
WILL INIT UNDER MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF
PATCHY FOG THAT SHOULD KEEP SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS
KLWB/KBCB IN MVFR VSBYS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE RAPIDLY
CLEARING.
ONCE THE FOG CLEARS...SHOULD SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY
WITH SCTD/BKN CU GIVING WAY TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSRA IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT APPEARS COVERAGE MAY BE EVEN MORE ISOLATED THAN
MONDAY. HOWEVER KEEPING VCTS FOR MOST TAFS AFTER 19Z/3PM FOR NOW
TO COINCIDE WITH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY WITH LESS SUPPORT AND
WEST WINDS DIMINISHING THE TSRA THREAT AT KLWB DOWN TO KBCB. ANY
OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS INCLUDING STRONG WINDS/HAIL IF A TSRA
DIRECTLY IMPACTS A TERMINAL LOCATION. CONVECTION QUICKLY FADES
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO THAT OF LAST
NIGHT EXPECTED WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AROUND BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH AN EVER-INCREASING THREAT FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MVFR BR TO LOCALLY LIFR
FG WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS FOLLOWING
EVENING CONVECTION.
BEST DAILY FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID TO LATE
MORNING AFTER FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF/LIFT...AND BEFORE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO OFFER THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES AND THEN STALLS OVER/NEAR THE AREA. THIS WILL PRESENT
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
LOCATIONS RECORDS (6/17) (6/18)
ROANOKE 96/1944 97/1925
LYNCHBURG 96/1944 96/1944
DANVILLE 99/1981 96/2007
BLACKSBURG 88/1994 88/2007
BLUEFIELD 86/2007 90/2007
LEWISBURG 86/1996 88/2007
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER AT MOUNT JEFFERSON REMAINS OFF
THE AIR THIS MORNING. THIS IS STATION WNG588 ON A FREQUENCY OF
162.525 MHZ. TECHNICIANS WILL BE RETURNING TO THE SITE THIS
MORNING WITH EXPECTATION OF A RETURN TO SERVICE AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/PM
CLIMATE...JH
EQUIPMENT...JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
312 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE BEING SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH HEADS EAST
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY WEEKS END AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...
OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
5H RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SE RESULTING IN A WEAK WEST TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER THE REGION REMAINS JUST FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO ALLOW PARCELS TO BREAK THROUGH THE
CAP ALOFT ESPCLY WHERE ORIGINATED BY OROGRAPHICS/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING...AND THEN DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP
FOR ADDED ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
PASSING OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM MONDAY AND EVEN LESS SUPPORT
ALOFT TODAY. MOST GUIDANCE AGAIN SHOWING INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WITH OUTFLOW WORKING MORE NORTH THAN EAST
TODAY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN A FEW MORE TSRA ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
AND WEST PER LATEST HRRR AND HIRES ARW. INSTABILITY AGAIN LOOKS
QUITE IMPRESSIVE PER FORECAST 3K J/KG CAPES SOUTH-EAST AND DRY AIR
ALOFT OVERTOP STEEP LAPSES. HOWEVER LIGHT LOW LEVEL WEST WINDS MAY
TEND TO DETER COVERAGE FROM THE NEW RIVER VALLEY NORTH TO
GREENBRIER WHERE MODELS DO SHOW LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. THUS AFTER
SOME PATCHY FOG HAVE BASICALLY SHOTGUNNED IN SCATTERED POPS WITH
FOCUS MORE IN AREAS THAT SAW LESS RAINFALL ON MONDAY. OTRW
20-30ISH POPS INTO EARLY EVENING.
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID DAY WITH WESTERN RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE PER THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW AS EXPECT HIGHS 1-3 DEGREES WARMER GIVEN
SLIGHT 85H WARMING AND PERHAPS A BIT LESS CONVECTION UNDER
SUNSHINE.
APPEARS ANY EARLY CONVECTION TO QUICKLY FADE PER LACK OF UPPER
SUPPORT WITH SKIES TURNING PC TO MOSTLY CLEAR ALLOWING MORE
PATCHY FOG LATE UNDER THE RIDGING. LOWS AGAIN BASICALLY IN THE 60S
EXCEPT LIKELY STAYING ABOVE 70 IN SPOTS GIVEN MOISTURE AROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAIN JUST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH AND AN 850 MB HIGH WILL BE VERTICALLY STACKED AND CENTERED
OVER TENNESSEE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST...THEN WEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE 850 MB HIGH. THIS
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL PUSH RICH MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION.
THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE BEST CAPPING
INVERSION WEST OF THE AREA WILL YIELD DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SWODY2 HAS PLACED
THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO OUR NORTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
EASTWARD TO NEW JERSEY WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS
INVOF OF WARM FRONT WITH BEST DYNAMICS. WITH WEST WINDS AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 C...HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
THE MID 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE
PIEDMONT. RECORD HIGHS LISTED IN CLIMATE SECTION. NO REAL ESCAPE
FROM THE HEAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH
READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN
THE PIEDMONT.
ON THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL
SEND A BACKDOOR FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST TO THE MID
90S IN THE SOUTHEAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. USED HPCGUIDE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND
PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE AS UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS WHILE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. STAYING CLOSE TO WHAT WE
FORECASTED YESTERDAY IN TERMS OF KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE...DUE TO TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES RACING ALONG THE SRN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. ALL IN ALL EVEN THOUGH WILL HAVE POPS NO
HIGHER THAN 50-55...STILL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AT LEAST MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME.
WILL BE CONCERNED WITH MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND TRAINING
ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING IF IT TRACKS OVER THE SAME SPOT. STILL TOO EARLY TO MENTION
IN THE HWO...BUT BEARS WATCHING. AS THE AIRMASS HEATS UP PRIOR TO
THIS...PLENTY OF FUEL TO ADD TO THE PROVERBIAL FIRE ONCE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT LEAST FRI-SAT TO SEE
SOME SVR STORM THREAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS. CURRENTLY SPC
HIGHLIGHTING LOW PREDICTABILITY GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR AND TIMING OF
THE WAVES.
MODELS DIFFER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF FASTER
NOW WITH FROPA AND SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE EAST BY MONDAY. THIS
MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING INCONSISTENCY SO WILL LEAN TOWARD 00Z GFS/06Z
GFS AND WPC FORECAST. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE FRONT AND KEEP US IN A STICKY AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL BE STAYING
ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION UPSTREAM AND STORMS
OVERHEAD CAN HINDER THE HEAT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S...NEAR 70 SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 102 AM EDT TUESDAY...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION HAS NOW PUSHED TO THE EAST WITH THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE SO APPEARS OTHER THAN SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS SHOULD
BE MAINLY VFR FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER SOME PATCHY FOG
LIKELY ESPCLY IN THE WESTERN RIVER VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE SOUTH/SE
WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL OCCURRED. THIS WOULD LIKELY AFFECT KLWB
LATE WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR AND KDAN BY DAYBREAK. ELSW MAY SEE
VERY BRIEF FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KBCB/KLYH BUT GIVEN THE DRY GROUND
AT THESE LOCATIONS CONFIDENCE LOWER IN SEEING THIS DEVELOP.
ANY FOG CLEARS AFTER 13Z/9AM TUESDAY...LEAVING PRACTICALLY A
REPEAT OF MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT APPEARS COVERAGE MAY BE EVEN MORE ISOLATED. HOWEVER
KEEPING VCTS FOR MOST TAFS AFTER 20Z/4PM TO COINCIDE WITH THE PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY WITH LESS SUPPORT AND WEST WINDS DIMINISHING
THE TSRA THREAT AT KLWB DOWN TO KBCB. CONVECTION FADES QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY EVENING WITH A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO THAT OF
TONIGHT EXPECTED WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AROUND TUESDAY
NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH AN EVER-INCREASING THREAT FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MVFR BR TO LOCALLY LIFR
FG WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS FOLLOWING
EVENING CONVECTION.
BEST DAILY FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID TO LATE
MORNING AFTER FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF/LIFT...AND BEFORE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO OFFER THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES AND THEN STALLS OVER/NEAR THE AREA. THIS WILL PRESENT
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
LOCATIONS RECORDS (9/17) (9/18)
ROANOKE 96/1944 97/1925
LYNCHBURG 96/1944 96/1944
DANVILLE 99/1981 96/2007
BLACKSBURG 88/1994 88/2007
BLUEFIELD 86/2007 90/2007
LEWISBURG 86/1996 88/2007
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER AT MOUNT JEFFERSON IS NOT
BROADCASTING. THIS IS STATION WNG588 ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.525
MHZ. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED AND IT IS UNKNOWN WHEN IT WILL
BE FIXED...BUT EARLY ESTIMATES INDICATED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/PM
CLIMATE...JH
EQUIPMENT...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
919 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
.UPDATE...
SHOULD HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE UPDATE...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO DROP
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THE WESTERN COUNTIES. STILL EXPECTING
IT TO RAIN OUT THERE...BUT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL.
COOL NORTHEAST WINDS FLOWING IN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN HAS BROUGHT SOME
IMPRESSIVE FOG TO THE LAKE SHORE AREAS. SEE NO REASON WHY THIS
WON/T CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
IT APPEARS ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND
WEST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN PUSHED
AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL IL AND AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL IA. THE H8
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES APPEAR TO BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE SW CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHWEST OF MADISON. THE HRRR CONTINUES
TO SHOW ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM SCNTRAL
MN TO ERN IA TO CNTRL IL...CLIPPING SOUTHWEST WI...THIS IS BETWEEN
THE SFC AND H8 BOUNDARIES. WE WILL LIKELY SEE DEEPER
STABILIZATION FROM THE NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHEAR IS VERY WEAK AND THE BETTER AND DEEPER CAPE VALUES WILL BE
WELL OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. ANY ELEVATED SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER OUR
WESTERN CWA SHOULD...AND I PUT THAT IN AIR QUOTES...BEHAVE
THEMSELVES.
WE NEED THE REPRIEVE TO DRAIN SOME WATER OUT OF OUR RIVERS AND
ALLOW SOME OF THE STANDING WATER TO PERCOLATE INTO THE GROUND. WE
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER OF RAIN LATER TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
COOL NORTHEAST WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE VERY PROBLEMATIC
FOR AIRPORT OPERATIONS AT KMKE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE LAST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED FOG ACROSS ALL OF LAKE MICHIGAN
DUE TO THE MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED IN THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THU...BUT THE EXACT END
TIME IS FULL OF UNCERTAINTY. KUES AND KENW WILL SEE SOME LAKE
CLOUDS/FOG AS WELL...BUT IT SHOULDN/T BE QUITE AS LOW AS KMKE. IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS NOT THREAT OF SHOWERS OR STORMS UNTIL LATER
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD MOVE INTO KMSN A FEW HOURS
BEFORE THE EASTER TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE TO THE COOL
NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINING WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM THURSDAY...BUT MAY END OF HANGING IN
LONGER. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THIS WILL CLEAR.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 852 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014/
UPDATE...
COOL NORTHEAST WINDS FLOWING IN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN HAS BROUGHT SOME
IMPRESSIVE FOG TO THE LAKE SHORE AREAS. SEE NO REASON WHY THIS
WON/T CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
IT APPEARS ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND
WEST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN PUSHED
AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL IL AND AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL IA. THE H8
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES APPEAR TO BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE SW CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHWEST OF MADISON. THE HRRR CONTINUES
TO SHOW ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM SCNTRAL
MN TO ERN IA TO CNTRL IL...CLIPPING SOUTHWEST WI...THIS IS BETWEEN
THE SFC AND H8 BOUNDARIES. WE WILL LIKELY SEE DEEPER
STABILIZATION FROM THE NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHEAR IS VERY WEAK AND THE BETTER AND DEEPER CAPE VALUES WILL BE
WELL OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. ANY ELEVATED SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER OUR
WESTERN CWA SHOULD...AND I PUT THAT IN AIR QUOTES...BEHAVE
THEMSELVES.
WE NEED THE REPRIEVE TO DRAIN SOME WATER OUT OF OUR RIVERS AND
ALLOW SOME OF THE STANDING WATER TO PERCOLATE INTO THE GROUND. WE
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER OF RAIN LATER TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
COOL NORTHEAST WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE VERY PROBLEMATIC
FOR AIRPORT OPERATIONS AT KMKE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE LAST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED FOG ACROSS ALL OF LAKE MICHIGAN
DUE TO THE MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED IN THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THU...BUT THE EXACT END
TIME IS FULL OF UNCERTAINTY. KUES AND KENW WILL SEE SOME LAKE
CLOUDS/FOG AS WELL...BUT IT SHOULDN/T BE QUITE AS LOW AS KMKE. IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS NOT THREAT OF SHOWERS OR STORMS UNTIL LATER
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD MOVE INTO KMSN A FEW HOURS
BEFORE THE EASTER TAF SITES.
MARINE...
A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE TO THE COOL
NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINING WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM THURSDAY...BUT MAY END OF HANGING IN
LONGER. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THIS WILL CLEAR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN VCNTY CNTRL NEB WITH FRONTAL DRAPED
THROUGH IA INTO CNTRL IL. MORNING CONVECTION HAS DISPLACED THIS
FRONT FURTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY. 850 LLJ PROGGD TO REFOCUS
AGAIN THOUGH NOSE OF THE JET AS PRONOUNCED INTO SRN WI AS THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS. STILL EXPECTING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER ON
PER THE HRRR/4KM SPC WRF AND THE OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER THE
ORGANIZED MCS IS DEPICTED TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...LLJ AND BETTER MLCAPE. DECIDED TO TRIM
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BACK TO JUST OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. HRRR
DOES SHOW SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION TAKING SHAPE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
THE WESTERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER WITH
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS WI...THE MORE ORGANIZED FOCUS IS
FURTHER WEST WITH CLOSER TO INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOG OVERNIGHT TOO NEAR THE LAKE WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW
COMBINED WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS OVER THE COLDER LAKE WATERS.
THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF WI. POSITION OF TROUGH AXIS
AND SHORTWAVES RIDING NORTHEAST FAVOR WRN CWA FOR POPS. 850 JET
AXIS ALSO FAVORS THE WESTERN CWA. IN FACT THE NEW ECMWF IS
ESSENTIALLY DRY CWA WIDE. ALL MODELS FOCUSING BETTER COVERAGE OF
STORMS NEAR RETREATING WARM FRONT/LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND THE
BETTER SOUTHERLY FLOW. SO WILL KEY ON THE WEST FOR THE HIGHER
POPS. AGAIN...PERHAPS SOME FOG IN THE EAST WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW
OFF THE LAKE. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS/MOS BOTH SUGGESTING A GOOD DEAL
OF CLOUD COVER SO COMBINED WITH THE EAST FLOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 70S AT MOST INLAND LOCALES.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE LIKELY THU NT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE
OCCURS WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. WIND SHEAR WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK SO SVR THREAT IS VERY LOW WITH NO SLIGHT RISK IN
EFFECT. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE 15-20 KTS SO HEAVY RAIN AND AT
LEAST A SMALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS POSSIBLE. THE RAIN CHANCES
WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN SETTLE OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES FOR FRI NT
THROUGH SATURDAY. SRN WILL BE BETWEEN THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR TO THE EAST AND NORTH AND THE RETURN MOISTURE TO THE WEST.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION OR WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL KEEP 20-40 POPS
IN THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
WEAK WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. A W-E
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF WI BUT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF TSTORMS DUE
TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...JUST A FEW SHRA REMAINS WITH LINGERING 500
MILLIBAR VORTICITY AXIS WITHIN THE 500 TROUGH. AT THIS POINT
THINKING THAT WE WILL HAVE LESS CONVECTION AROUND HERE TONIGHT WITH
EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT POSITIONED FURTHER SOUTH AND FOCUSING LLJ MUCH
FURTHER SOUTHWEST THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. KMSN STANDS THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTION AFTER 06Z OR SO. AND FOR THURSDAY
MODELS ARE KEYING ON KMSN AND AREAS WEST FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. EASTERN AREAS MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME FOG CLOSER TO
THE LAKE DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
907 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE
REMNANTS OF AN MCV MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE REGION EXCEPT FOR A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED SOUTH INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL
IOWA...BUT A BAND OF CLOUDS FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA MARKS WHERE THE 850MB FRONT IS LOCATED. AREAS IN
PROXIMITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES ARE MOSTLY DRY DUE TO STRONG CAPPING
OVERHEAD. FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE POSSIBILITY OF
RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
TONIGHT...MCV OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST
EARLY IN THE EVENING. REMNANT 850MB BOUNDARY WILL HANG BACK
HOWEVER...FROM EAST-CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA BUT WILL PIVOT A BIT AS THE WESTERN END BENDS NORTHWARD.
WILL HAVE WEAK LIFT ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE FORM
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MID-LEVEL FGEN. MODELS ARE QUITE DRY THIS
EVENING OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHICH IS THE PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAT WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY. BUT THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF THE FRONT TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING. AS HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS CAUSE THE WESTERN PART OF THE FRONT TO LIFT
NORTHWARD...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST A
BIT OVERNIGHT. BUT UNLIKE THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS...WILL NOT HAVE
ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND CANNOT FIND HARDLY ANY INSTABILITY. SO
AM NOT THINKING A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHTS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL
OCCUR...BUT MORE IN THE WAY OF ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS.
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN MAY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT WHERE NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE FUNNELING STABLE AIR INTO THIS PART OF THE STATE.
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTHEAST TO THE MIDDLE 60S
SOUTHWEST.
THURSDAY...A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GREAT PLAINS...WHICH WILL HELP PUSH THE 850MB FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE WEAK FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT ALONG WITH PWATS UPWARDS OF 1.75 INCHES. WITH SUFFICIENT
DAYTIME HEATING...A 79/65 PARCEL WILL YIELD NEARLY 1000 J/KG OF ML
CAPE NEAR WISCONSIN RAPIDS. 0-6KM BULK SHEARS ARE ONLY AROUND 25
KTS...AND WITH QUESTION MARKS ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF HEATING AND DEGREE
OF FORCING...THINK A SEVERE THREAT IS RATHER MARGINAL. SPC KEEPS
THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER FAR SW WISCONSIN
TOMORROW...AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. BEING NEAR THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS...ANY STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD DROP QUICK HALF INCH
TO INCH OF RAINFALL. BUT AM ANTICIPATING COVERAGE TO BE ONLY SCT IN
NATURE DUE TO THE WEAK FORCING. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
PRECIP OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME
BRIEFLY MORE ZONAL LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER-LOW NEAR LAKE
WINNEPEG HEADS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND UNDERCUTS RIDGE.
UNFORTUNATELY...WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OPPORTUNITIES FOR BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION INTO
THE WEEKEND. UNLIKELY MODEL GUIDANCE WILL HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE
ON THESE WEAK IMPULSES THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND IS LOW. EVENTUALLY PATTERN AMPLIFIES AGAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN CONUS AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRIES TO BECOME RE-
ESTABLISHED FURTHER WEST OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES TO UNDERCUT CANADIAN RIDGE AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT UNSETTLED WEATTHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPTATION.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS FAIRLY ROBUST
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEST OF LAKE WINNEPEG EJECTS DISTURBANCES EASTWARD
TOWARD THE AREA. THESE IMPULSES WILL PROVIDE MORE ORGANIZED LARGE-
SCALE ASCENT THAT WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RATHER POTENT
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO SWING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO SUGGEST TWO AREAS
OF FOCUS FOR CONVECTION EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...ONE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT AND GREATER INSTABILITY OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND THE OTHER CLOSER TO THE STRONGER UPPER-
LEVEL DYNAMICS OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ALL MODELS SUGGEST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY THEN PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. STILL COPIOUS MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...THUS ANOTHER BOUT OF FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL SEEMS TO
BE A GOOD BET. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
VERY SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHEAR MORE FAVORABLE UPSTREAM OVER IOWA
AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND PERHAPS INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER IMPULSE TO
EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOMETIME FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER WAY TOO MUCH DISCREPANCY IN THE
GUIDANCE TO TRY AND NAIL DOWN LOCATION AND TIMING...SO WILL BE
FORCED TO MAINTAIN BROAD BRUSH CHANCE POPS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH A FEW IMPORTANT EXCEPTIONS. THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS WITH
CEILINGS BETWEEN 300 AND 900 FEET OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY
COME INLAND TO MANITOWOC AND STURGEON BAY AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...MOIST EASTERLY WINDS FLOWING WEST INTO HIGHER TERRAIN
IN CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY PRODUCE BROKEN CLOUDS
BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 FEET.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
852 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
.UPDATE...
COOL NORTHEAST WINDS FLOWING IN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN HAS BROUGHT SOME
IMPRESSIVE FOG TO THE LAKE SHORE AREAS. SEE NO REASON WHY THIS
WON/T CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
IT APPEARS ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND
WEST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN PUSHED
AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL IL AND AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL IA. THE H8
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES APPEAR TO BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE SW CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHWEST OF MADISON. THE HRRR CONTINUES
TO SHOW ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM SCNTRAL
MN TO ERN IA TO CNTRL IL...CLIPPING SOUTHWEST WI...THIS IS BETWEEN
THE SFC AND H8 BOUNDARIES. WE WILL LIKELY SEE DEEPER
STABILIZATION FROM THE NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHEAR IS VERY WEAK AND THE BETTER AND DEEPER CAPE VALUES WILL BE
WELL OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. ANY ELEVATED SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER OUR
WESTERN CWA SHOULD...AND I PUT THAT IN AIR QUOTES...BEHAVE
THEMSELVES.
WE NEED THE REPRIEVE TO DRAIN SOME WATER OUT OF OUR RIVERS AND
ALLOW SOME OF THE STANDING WATER TO PERCOLATE INTO THE GROUND. WE
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER OF RAIN LATER TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
COOL NORTHEAST WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE VERY PROBLEMATIC
FOR AIRPORT OPERATIONS AT KMKE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE LAST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED FOG ACROSS ALL OF LAKE MICHIGAN
DUE TO THE MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED IN THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THU...BUT THE EXACT END
TIME IS FULL OF UNCERTAINTY. KUES AND KENW WILL SEE SOME LAKE
CLOUDS/FOG AS WELL...BUT IT SHOULDN/T BE QUITE AS LOW AS KMKE. IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE IS NOT THREAT OF SHOWERS OR STORMS UNTIL LATER
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD MOVE INTO KMSN A FEW HOURS
BEFORE THE EASTER TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE TO THE COOL
NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINING WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM THURSDAY...BUT MAY END OF HANGING IN
LONGER. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THIS WILL CLEAR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN VCNTY CNTRL NEB WITH FRONTAL DRAPED
THROUGH IA INTO CNTRL IL. MORNING CONVECTION HAS DISPLACED THIS
FRONT FURTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY. 850 LLJ PROGGD TO REFOCUS
AGAIN THOUGH NOSE OF THE JET AS PRONOUNCED INTO SRN WI AS THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS. STILL EXPECTING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER ON
PER THE HRRR/4KM SPC WRF AND THE OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER THE
ORGANIZED MCS IS DEPICTED TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...LLJ AND BETTER MLCAPE. DECIDED TO TRIM
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BACK TO JUST OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. HRRR
DOES SHOW SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION TAKING SHAPE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
THE WESTERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA. HOWEVER WITH
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS WI...THE MORE ORGANIZED FOCUS IS
FURTHER WEST WITH CLOSER TO INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGH. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOG OVERNIGHT TOO NEAR THE LAKE WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW
COMBINED WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS OVER THE COLDER LAKE WATERS.
THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF WI. POSITION OF TROUGH AXIS
AND SHORTWAVES RIDING NORTHEAST FAVOR WRN CWA FOR POPS. 850 JET
AXIS ALSO FAVORS THE WESTERN CWA. IN FACT THE NEW ECMWF IS
ESSENTIALLY DRY CWA WIDE. ALL MODELS FOCUSING BETTER COVERAGE OF
STORMS NEAR RETREATING WARM FRONT/LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND THE
BETTER SOUTHERLY FLOW. SO WILL KEY ON THE WEST FOR THE HIGHER
POPS. AGAIN...PERHAPS SOME FOG IN THE EAST WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW
OFF THE LAKE. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS/MOS BOTH SUGGESTING A GOOD DEAL
OF CLOUD COVER SO COMBINED WITH THE EAST FLOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 70S AT MOST INLAND LOCALES.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE LIKELY THU NT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE
OCCURS WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. WIND SHEAR WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK SO SVR THREAT IS VERY LOW WITH NO SLIGHT RISK IN
EFFECT. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE 15-20 KTS SO HEAVY RAIN AND AT
LEAST A SMALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS POSSIBLE. THE RAIN CHANCES
WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN SETTLE OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES FOR FRI NT
THROUGH SATURDAY. SRN WILL BE BETWEEN THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR TO THE EAST AND NORTH AND THE RETURN MOISTURE TO THE WEST.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION OR WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL KEEP 20-40 POPS
IN THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
WEAK WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. A W-E
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF WI BUT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF TSTORMS DUE
TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...JUST A FEW SHRA REMAINS WITH LINGERING 500
MILLIBAR VORTICITY AXIS WITHIN THE 500 TROUGH. AT THIS POINT
THINKING THAT WE WILL HAVE LESS CONVECTION AROUND HERE TONIGHT WITH
EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT POSITIONED FURTHER SOUTH AND FOCUSING LLJ MUCH
FURTHER SOUTHWEST THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. KMSN STANDS THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTION AFTER 06Z OR SO. AND FOR THURSDAY
MODELS ARE KEYING ON KMSN AND AREAS WEST FOR BETTER CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. EASTERN AREAS MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME FOG CLOSER TO
THE LAKE DUE TO THE EASTERLY FLOW.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ056-062-067.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
655 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LATEST
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE LATEST 18.12Z GFS/NAM INDICATE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE TO INCREASE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SHIFT THE NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
CONVERGENCE INTO FORECAST AREA BY 06Z THURSDAY. WITH SUBTLE WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...EXPECT ANOTHER MCS TO FORM AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 03-06Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOCATION
OF WHERE THE MCS WILL FORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT WHERE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL OVER FORECAST AREA. THE 18.12Z
GFS/NAM AND 15Z RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.5-2 INCHES ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH EXTENDING
UP TO 4KM PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER FORECAST AREA WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND PRODUCE LOCAL HEAVY RAIN. THE 18.12Z
GFS/NAM SUGGEST WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND TRACK ACROSS FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NEXT CONCERN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE 18.12Z
GFS/NAM INDICATE MAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AND 0-3KM SHEAR IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOTS RANGE ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
THE MODELS SUGGEST ALL SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER...AS THE 0-6KM SHEAR
SHOWS ABOUT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. AT THIS TIME...LOOKING AT DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN
THREATS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 18.12Z GFS/NAM SHOW WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THE FLOW WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH EACH IMPULSE...SHOULD ALLOW THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 18.12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARE INDICATED BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
HAVE IMPACTS ON TIMING OF MOISTURE RETURN/PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT CONCERN ARE
TEMPERATURES FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE 18.12Z GFS/ECMWF
DIFFERING SLIGHTLY ON STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...THE 18.12Z GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW COOL
AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE 18.12Z ECMWF
ADVECTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THE 18.12Z GFS.
THE 18.12Z ECMWF SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUS 10 TO PLUS 12
DEGREES CELSIUS OVER FORECAST AREA...COMPARED TO PLUS 12 TO PLUS
14 DEGREES CELSIUS 850MB TEMPERATURES BY THE 18.12Z GFS.
TEMPERATURES OVER FORECAST AREA BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN 2500 TO 5000 FOOT DECK OF CLOUDS HEVAE
DEVELOPED NORTH A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST
IOWA. SOME OF 5K FOOT DECK EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH AS THE TAF SITES.
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS AND INTERCEPTS STRONG 900 TO 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS FROM THE TWIN CITIES SOUTHEAST IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 19.04Z AND 19.06Z. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
THEN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW OF THE MESO MODELS
SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SQUALL LINE COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE TAF
SITES BETWEEN 19.08Z AND 19.11Z. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH YET TO ADD THIS TO THE WIND FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THERE
COULD BE ON OCCASION A BROKEN 1500 TO 2500 DECK OF CLOUDS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AND
THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE MESO MODELS SUCH AS THE ARW SUGGEST THAT WE
MAY BE A BIT TOO SOON AT BRINGING THEM INTO THE TAF SITES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5
TO 2 INCH RANGE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS UP TO 4 KM. THE COMBINATION
OF ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
ALSO...DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...THE
CEDAR...TREMPEALEAU AND BLACK RIVERS HAVE RISEN OR ARE FORECASTED
TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
PORTIONS OF THESE RIVERS. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR
EXACT FORECAST DETAILS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WIZ032>034-
041>044-053>055-061.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...DTJ
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NITES CONVECTION MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE
HURON. A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THIS SURFACE LOW
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL IOWA WHERE CUMULUS CLOUDS LOOK
AGITATED. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY OVER
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN IOWA BUT CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION IS PREVENTING THE NEXT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FROM
DEVELOPING SO FAR. FARTHER WEST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
NORTHEAST OVER NEBRASKA WHERE WEAK LOW PRESSURE RESIDES. ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...CU IS BUILDING OVER NE WISCONSIN WHERE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING BUT PLENTY OF INHIBITION IS PRESENT
THERE AS WELL. WITH THE NEXT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING...THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH LIFT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND
DESTABILIZATION OF THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD LEAD TO A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A VARIETY OF TRACKS OF THIS COMPLEX WITH THE NAM/ECMWF
TRACKING IT TOWARDS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WHILE THE MESOMODELS EXPANDING
IT TOWARDS MILWAUKEE. SINCE THE LLJ AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE DIRECTED TOWARDS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS...A
SOUTHEAST TRACK SEEMS MORE PROBABLE. HOWEVER...SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY STILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE AROUND 1K-1.5K J/KG WHILE EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEARS WILL BE APPROX. 30 KTS. SO APPEARS THAT A LOW END
SEVERE THREAT IS STILL POSSIBLE...IF THE MAIN COMPLEX DOES NOT CUT
OFF MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE SOUTH. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALSO
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ROUTE 29 WHERE PWATS WILL BE UPWARDS OF 1.5
INCHES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING EASTERN WISCONSIN
DURING THE MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
GOING THROUGH THE AM HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
THINK PRECIP WILL BE EXITING BY LATE IN THE MORNING AND THEN WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR OFF THE
GREAT LAKES. EVEN THOUGH THE 850MB BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN....AM THINKING THAT THE COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIR WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES SMALLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST
SHOWS. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S EAST TO LOW 80S WEST...COOLER
LAKE SIDE.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO
BE THE MAIN CONCERN. EARLY IN PERIOD MODELS ALL TRENDING TOWARD PUSHING
PCPN OFF TO THE WEST...WITH EAST WINDS OUT OF SURFACE HIGH OVER HUDSON
BAY FILTERING IN DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION. PCPN CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN THU NIGHT/FRI AS LOW AND SURFACE TROF SHIFT EAST. NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSED WITH CHANCES FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME WITH WEAK LLVL
JET AND SHEAR. PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER REGION WITH MAIN
ISSUE AGAIN CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL.
WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND...LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PCPN CHANCES TO
CONTINUE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ANOTHER
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MOVE
EAST OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LOOKING TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 29
LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL
HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...CIGS WILL BE FALLING WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
IFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE RAIN
EXITS...CIGS/VSBYS TO IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING ONWARD.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
548 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TODAY AND WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS THE
AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY AS A WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ALONG IT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A WET START TO THE DAY WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA.
HAVE UPDATED POPS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY/TRENDS. EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...KEEPING NYC/LI MOSTLY DRY...BUT HAS SINCE LOST
ITS WAY. HOWEVER IT DOES HINT AT A BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING...BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OVER WESTERN PA MOVES
IN. NEW POPS REFLECT THIS THINKING. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY T/TD/WINDS AND SKY BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM N TO S DURING THE
AFTN AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO BE NUDGED SWD BY HIGH PRES NOSING IN
TO THE NE FROM HUDSON BAY. SHOULD SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXING
ONLY TO AROUND H95 WHICH SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO A W/NW FLOW. METRO
NY/NJ WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...AROUND 80.
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SEABREEZES AT BAY FOR THE MOST
PART. SE CT AND SOUTHERN BROOKLYN/QUEENS ARE THE TWO AREAS THAT
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHC TO BREEZE LATER THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
BENIGN WEATHER THEN PREVAILS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRES IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL RESULT
IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. 50S WITH A FEW ISOLD UPPER
40 DEGREE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN RURAL LOCATIONS...AND LOW TO MID
60S IN THE URBAN AND SUBURBAN COUNTIES OF NYC.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
FOR FRI. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE HIGHER...TO AROUND H85...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYTIME. A
W/NW FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN CAUSE HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT SITTING TO OUR SOUTH.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
HIGH IS OVERHEAD THE AREA. ECMWF CONTINUES TO HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS
ON SATURDAY BUT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE RELATIVELY DRY...WILL CONTINUE
THE DRY FORECAST. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL MOSTLY DUE TO
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE SOUTH FOR SAT AND SUN.
FEWER CLOUDS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN
CONTROL WITH A DRY FORECAST. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INTRODUCED BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN.
THERE IS A CHANCE TUESDAY COULD REMAIN DRY. CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
MUCH COOLER TEMPS BUILD IN STARTING ON SATURDAY THANKS TO LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH. NEAR NORMAL AND
SIMILAR TEMPS SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
FOR HIGHS AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR LOWS. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THESE VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA INTO TONIGHT.
VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SHOULD SEE CEILINGS AROUND
5000 FT THIS MORNING. WILL SEE PASSING SHRA EARLY THIS
MORNING...SO ONLY A TEMPO...THEN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHRA
FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES WITH STRONGER SHRA THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EVEN SMALLER CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS...SO HAVE KEPT THEM ABOVE
3000 FT FOR NOW. SKC BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
CURRENTLY ASSESS PROBABILITY OF THUNDER AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL
TODAY AT 20 PERCENT OR LESS...SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS GIVE WAY TO NE FLOW LESS THAN 10 KT THIS
MORNING. WINDS BACK TO THE N-NW BY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT AT KGON WHERE
SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE MORE WSW. COULD ALSO SEE SEABREEZE AT KJFK
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND
CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS.
START/END TIME OF SHRA COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND
CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS.
START/END TIME OF SHRA COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND
CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS.
START/END TIME OF SHRA COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND
CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS.
START/END TIME OF SHRA COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND
CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS.
START/END TIME OF SHRA COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND
CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS.
START/END TIME OF SHRA COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...WITH
SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT ON THE OCEAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN
INCH TODAY. NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
NO RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24/LN
NEAR TERM...24
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...24/LN
HYDROLOGY...24/LN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
155 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT THEN CONTINUES SOUTHWARD AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
REMAINS INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION IN THE DEEP W/NW FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS TO FIT WITH TIMING OF THESE SHOWERS. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT TO NYC AROUND 8Z...ALTHOUGH HRRR IS INDICATING THAT THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TRACK NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FIVE
BOROUGHS. MUCAPE NOSEDIVES AT THE PA/NJ BORDER AND IS BELOW 100
J/KG ONCE YOU GET TO NE NJ WITH CIN. TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE
MAKING IT INTO THE CWA WITH JUST LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THROUGH
6AM.
LOW TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF NAM12 AND MAV GUIDANCE WITH SOME
ADJUSTMENTS UP TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS...ESPECIALLY WITH
URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION...FROM SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY...THEN SINK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY MORNING WITH CONVEYING QPF
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY IN
THE MORNING AS A FAIRLY STRONG MID AND UPPER WAVE MOVE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A STABLE AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WITH SURFACE BASED LI PLUS 2 TO PLUS 5 AND LITTLE TO
NO ELEVATED CAPE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT THUNDER. THIS CORRESPONDS
WELL WITH THE STORM PREDICTION OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...KEEPING
THUNDER CHANCES INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.
SOME STRONGER STEERING FLOW FROM THE PIVOTING SHORTWAVE IN
EASTERN QUEBEC AND SOUTHWARD PUSHING UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP
MOVE THE FRONT BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION. MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL BE REMARKABLY COOLER...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH THE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIP EARLY. THESE WERE A BLEND OF
GMOS...MET...AND MAV.
WEATHER EVENTUALLY DRIES OUT WITH SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
HUDSON BAY. A MORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR A REMARKABLY DRIER AIRMASS TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY
MORNING. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WERE A BLEND OF MET AND MAV GUIDANCE
AND WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S.
CLOUDS INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE REGION...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS SLOW MOVING
SHORTWAVES WILL PRECEDE A FRONTAL SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA INTO TONIGHT.
VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SHOULD SEE CEILINGS AROUND
5000 FT THIS MORNING. WILL SEE PASSING SHRA EARLY THIS
MORNING...SO ONLY A TEMPO...THEN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHRA
FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES WITH STRONGER SHRA THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EVEN SMALLER CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS...SO HAVE KEPT THEM ABOVE
3000 FT FOR NOW. SKC BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
CURRENTLY ASSESS PROBABILITY OF THUNDER AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL
TODAY AT 20 PERCENT OR LESS...SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS GIVE WAY TO NE FLOW LESS THAN 10 KT THIS
MORNING. WINDS BACK TO THE NW BY AFTERNOON...EXCEPT AT KGON WHERE
SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE MORE WSW. COULD ALSO SEE SEABREEZE AT KJFK
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
A WEST FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT 3 FT OR LESS.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KT AND OCEAN
SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS. THIS IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WATERS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 2-3 FT WITH GUSTS BELOW 20KT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF THROUGH THU MORNING IS EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN
1/10 TO 1/3 OF AN INCH. NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24/JM/BC
NEAR TERM...24/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...24/JM/BC
HYDROLOGY...JM/BC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
110 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT THEN CONTINUES SOUTHWARD AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH REMAINS INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA DURING THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION IN THE DEEP W/NW FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS TO FIT WITH TIMING OF THESE SHOWERS. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT TO NYC AROUND 8Z...ALTHOUGH HRRR IS INDICATING THAT THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TRACK NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FIVE
BOROUGHS. MUCAPE NOSEDIVES AT THE PA/NJ BORDER AND IS BELOW 100
J/KG ONCE YOU GET TO NE NJ WITH CIN. TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE
MAKING IT INTO THE CWA WITH JUST LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THROUGH
6AM.
LOW TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF NAM12 AND MAV GUIDANCE WITH SOME
ADJUSTMENTS UP TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS...ESPECIALLY WITH
URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION...FROM SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY...THEN SINK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY MORNING WITH CONVEYING QPF
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY IN
THE MORNING AS A FAIRLY STRONG MID AND UPPER WAVE MOVE ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A STABLE AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA WITH SURFACE BASED LI PLUS 2 TO PLUS 5 AND LITTLE TO
NO ELEVATED CAPE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT THUNDER. THIS CORRESPONDS
WELL WITH THE STORM PREDICTION OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY...KEEPING
THUNDER CHANCES INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.
SOME STRONGER STEERING FLOW FROM THE PIVOTING SHORTWAVE IN
EASTERN QUEBEC AND SOUTHWARD PUSHING UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP
MOVE THE FRONT BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION. MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL BE REMARKABLY COOLER...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH THE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIP EARLY. THESE WERE A BLEND OF
GMOS...MET...AND MAV.
WEATHER EVENTUALLY DRIES OUT WITH SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
HUDSON BAY. A MORE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR A REMARKABLY DRIER AIRMASS TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY
MORNING. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WERE A BLEND OF MET AND MAV GUIDANCE
AND WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S.
CLOUDS INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION. MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE REGION...SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS SLOW MOVING
SHORTWAVES WILL PRECEDE A FRONTAL SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE MOST PART THIS EVENING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WINDS STILL LIGHT BUT PERHAPS FAVORING N-NE.
-SHRA PROBABLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE BY MID AFTN. WINDS REMAINS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE FOR THURS...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DIRECTION.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. POSSIBLE SEA BREEZES.
.FRIDAY...VFR.
.SATURDAY...VFR. POSSIBLE PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WITH ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
A WEST FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS AT 3 FT OR LESS.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KT AND OCEAN
SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS. THIS IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT OF A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WATERS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 2-3 FT WITH GUSTS BELOW 20KT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF THROUGH THU MORNING IS EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN
1/10 TO 1/3 OF AN INCH. NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
536 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED
OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALSO WEAKEN. THE
PATTERN SUPPORTS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
GREATER COVERAGE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...STRONG HEATING AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH
PLUS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUGHT IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY HELP
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPPER RIDGING PLUS
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYS JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE
MAINLY IN THE NORTH PART LATE. THE 06Z HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHEAST PART LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH SEA-BREEZE
FRONT CONVERGENCE PLUS IN THE NORTH PART LIKELY ALONG THE LEE-
SIDE TROUGH AND CLOSER TO DEEPER MOISTURE. FORECASTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE NORTH PART WHERE BOTH MODELS INDICATED
MORE SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STRONGLY
UNSTABLE. THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -9 C WITH CAPE
ABOVE 3000 J/KG. THERE WILL BE AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING WITH
LARGE CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE. WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WILL BE
NEAR 10000 FT. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL MAY OCCUR.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY A LITTLE TOO COOL BASED ON
RECENT VERIFICATION.
TONIGHT...CONVERGENCE INTO THE SURFACE TROUGH...BOUNDARY
INTERACTION FROM POSSIBLE PREVIOUS CONVECTION PLUS AN H5 SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN DIFLUENT FLOW MAY HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
THE SPC WRF DISPLAYS CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE. THE NAM MOS POPS HAVE
TRENDED UPWARD. INCREASED POPS TO NEAR AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND
NAM MOS. THE LOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TOO COOL BASED ON
RECENT VERIFICATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CONVERGENCE INTO THE SURFACE TROUGH PLUS SOME UPPER SUPPORT WITH
AN H5 DIFLUENT FLOW AND POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TIME OF
MAXIMUM HEATING. MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT SHALLOW LIMITING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS SUPPORTS
POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP A SURFACE TROUGH OR FRONT NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD WITH THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS PLUS GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS 30 TO 40
PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THE MOS HAS LOWS IN THE LOWER
70S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS STAGNANT PATTERN AND VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AT AGS/OGB
DURING THE 08Z-12Z TIME PERIOD DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING.
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED STORMS
WHICH MAY IMPACT TERMINALS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF
DEVELOPMENT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THIS FORECAST BUT ALLOW LATER
FORECASTS TO ADDRESS THIS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...MAINLY AT FOG PRONE SITES AGS/OGB. BETTER CHANCE
OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
GIVES WAY TO UPPER TROUGH...AND SURFACE TROUGH WITH BETTER
MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
400 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
311 AM CDT
FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME MOVEMENT IN THE PATTERN AS WELL AS MORE
COHERENT FEATURES TO SERVE AS FORCING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTION.
THIS EQUATES TO BETTER FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BIG UPPER LOW STILL
SPINNING TO THE WEST THOUGH IT HAS MOVED NORTHEASTWARD AND IS
CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ALBERTA AND SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. ITS
NORTHWARD SHIFT HAS ALLOWED FOR THE RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF IT TO SHARPEN
OVER THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER NORTHEAST
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW IS OVER QUEBEC AND EASTERN ONTARIO AFTER
SETTLING SOUTHWARD. THIS LEAVES THE LOCAL AREA UNDERNEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE WITH NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE WAVES HELPING TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT
THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHED SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TO JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA AND INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
EARLY MORNING...LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST IOWA TO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
TO INDIANA. LEE/OGLE COUNTIES CONTINUE TO SEE NEARLY STATIONARY
CONVECTION OVER THEIR WESTERN PORTIONS WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF UP TO
10 INCHES AS OF 3 AM. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO REGENERATE AND WILL
LIKELY DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE FOCUS
MAY BE SHIFTING JUST TO THE WEST BUT TI DOES APPEAR THAT IT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS LEE/OGLE FOR A FEW HOURS YET. ANOTHER AREA OF
STORMS OVER FAR NORTHEAST IOWA HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF LOOSE
ORGANIZATION AS A PROGRESSIVE COMPLEX AS IT MOVES OR PROPAGATES
SOUTHWARD...THOUGH IT IS AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS OUT FROM REACHING
THE CURRENT CONVECTION. OTHERWISE MORE SCATTERED STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST IL THROUGH
DAYBREAK.
REST OF TODAY...THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD WHILE THE EASTERN CANADA HIGH PUSHES
SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE REGION THOUGH IT
SHOULD LOSE SOME OF ITS FOCUS. CURRENT WARM ADVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND WEAKENING
LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS. CURRENT ONGOING SLOW MOVING OR STATIONARY
CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN THROUGH MID MORNING AS THIS FORCING
WEAKENS. HOWEVER...SOME OVERRUNNING/WARM ASCENT WILL STILL BE
OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT SO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON
CHANCES LOOK LOW OVERALL BUT WEST AND SOUTHWEST AREAS WILL RETAIN
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH AROUND 1.9 INCHES AND STORM
MOVEMENT WILL PROBABLY STILL BE SLOW GIVEN THE WEAKENING UPPER FLOW
UNDER THE RIDGE...SO MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN BUT MAY BE
RATHER ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE EAST TO
NORTHEAST SO COOLER LAKE AIR WILL BE PUSHING INLAND. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AT THE LAKEFRONT THEN RISE INTO THE 70S
WORKING INLAND...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA...THOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP THINGS A LITTLE COOLER. IN
ADDITION...WITH MOIST DEWPOINTS FROM MICHIGAN SPREADING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE LAKE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND IT MAY CREEP INLAND A SHORT
DISTANCE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT LATEST OBS/WEB CAMS SHOW MINIMAL IF
ANY INLAND PUSH THUS FAR. WILL MENTION FOG NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE FOR TODAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AND LIFT INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA BY
EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BUT A
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH EASTWARD AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT REACHING THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT THAT
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LATER THIS
EVENING OR TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS ASCENT INCREASES...WITH THE
FRONT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
LATER FRIDAY LEADING TO A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR BUT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO REMAIN HIGH...WITH ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH BUT DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE BY EVENING. WILL NEED TO BETTER EVALUATE THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AREAS BUT THE
PRECIP TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND COVERAGE MAY
NOT BE SOLID. WESTERN AREAS ALONG THE I-39 CORRIDOR MAY NEED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT IF CONVECTION LOOKS MORE ROBUST AND MOVEMENT
SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY THINKING.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...A MUCH MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK RIDGING WILL BE
OVERHEAD. THE FORMERLY LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKEN OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE OFF THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST WHICH WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE AND
WORKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE LOCAL AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN
HOW THE UPPER FLOW EVOLVES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WAVE TRACKS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND TRIES TO PHASE WITH A STRONGER TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES...IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE PATTERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACTIVE WITH PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. INITIALLY IT WILL BE DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE ZONAL FLOW...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
TROUGH DRIVING PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW IT
EVOLVES. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL FOR COOLER AIR TO WORK INTO
THE REGION BY MID WEEK AS A LARGER SCALE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE
MIDWEST AND POINTS EAST.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* TSRA THROUGH SUNRISE.
* SMALL CHANCE OF TSRA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
* TSRA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
* IFR CIGS THROUGH SUNRISE/MVFR CIGS THURSDAY MORNING.
* NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CMS/BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
NO SIGNS OF TSRA ENDING OR DISSIPATING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
MOST RECENT AMENDMENTS OF TSRA MENTION NOW THROUGH 11Z. WITH THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIIVTY BEING DRIVEN BY WARM AIR ADVECTION...EXPECT
TO SEE SOME WEAKENING AROUND/AFTER SUNRISE BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN
EXACT END TIME AND ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST BEYOND SUNRISE. THERE
ARE TRENDS SUGGESTING ACTIVITY WILL END OR BE SHIFTING WEST BY
MID MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. IF
THIS OCCURS...IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
SHIFTS WEST THROUGH THE DAY LEAVING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. MORE DISCERNABLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL TSRA POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AND DESPITE CURRENT
DISTANCE...24-30 HRS...ADDED PROB MENTION TO ORD/S TAF.
IFR CIGS HAVE BEEN IN AND OUT AT ORD/MDW AND WITH THE COOLER
NORTHEAST FLOW...MOIST LOW LEVELS AND CONTINUED TSRA ACTIVITY...
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE BUT JUST NOT SURE HOW
WIDESPREAD OR HOW LONG THEY WILL PERSIST. BUT HAVE BEEN CARRYING
THEM ALL EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH
CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR EITHER BY SUNRISE OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
DESPITE EASTERLY WINDS...IF WINDS DIMINISH ENOUGH OVERNIGHT INTO
MID THURSDAY MORNING...THERE COULD BE A LAKE BREEZE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH FOR TSRA THROUGH SUNRISE.
* LOW FOR TSRA DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
* MEDIUM FOR TSRA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
* MEDIUM-HIGH FOR IFR CIGS THROUGH SUNRISE...MEDIUM FOR MVFR CIGS
THURSDAY MORNING.
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CMS/BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CHANCE OF TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
304 AM CDT
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...THE SAG BACK SOUTH AGAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE PRESSURE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
330 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday
Unsettled weather pattern expected through early next work week
with frontal boundary nearby along with disturbance digging into
the upper level ridge over the southeast states. Very warm and
humid tropical airmass to linger through Monday with cooler temps
by middle of next week along with lower humidity levels.
Showers and thunderstorms have mainly been staying north of
central IL so far tonight over northern parts of IL/IN with just
very isolated convection from I-74 north to I-80. 1006 mb low
pressure over east central SD has warm front over central IA into
northern IL north of I-74 but south of I-80 nearing Lacon. Muggy
temps in the 70s over much of central IL in warm sector while
Lacon and Pontiac north of front were cooler 68F. Despite deep
tropical moisture in place and unstable airmass, a weakening low
level jet and lack of an upper level disturbance along with warm
front lifting north of central IL has kept most of central IL dry
during the night. RAP and HRRR models show isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop over central IL during the
day mainly after 15Z/10 am and convection could push frontal
boundary back south of I-74. Have higher pops as day progresses
with highest pops over IL river valley and lowest in southeast IL
but still chance pops there this afternoon. SPC keeps slight risk
nw of IL over IA though there is a 5% risk of damaging winds and
large hail this afternoon and evening due to very unstable airmass
with CAPES peaking from 2-3k j/kg this afternoon. Another very
warm and humid day with highs in the upper 80s to around 90F.
Muggy dewpoints in the lower 70s to give afternoon heat indices
peaking in mid to upper 90s with highest readings in southeast IL.
Not quite as hot as past two days due to more cloud cover and
convection around this afternoon.
Have likely chances of showers and thunderstorms northern areas
tonight with chance pops south of I-72. Most models show some qpf
tonight with low level jet better than this past night though not
terribly strong over central IL. Also have a short wave moving
east across IL so feel more confident with higher pops tonight and
shifting into eastern IL on Friday. Highs in the upper 80s Friday
with southeast IL near 90F and muggy dewpoints in the lower 70s still.
SPC does not have a slight risk over IL Friday but can not rule
out an isolate strong storm over especially over eastern IL Friday
afternoon. Lingering 20-30% chance of convection Friday evening
south of I-72 as frontal boundary pushes se of central IL. Then
looks like a break in convection chances overnight Friday night
into Sat. Very warm again Sat with highs in the upper 80s to near 90F
and dewpoints holding around 70F.
LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday
Weak high pressure over the great lakes region Saturday to shift
east Saturday night and Sunday with southerly tropical flow
reestablished over IL and returning chances of showers and
thunderstorms overnight Saturday night and Sunday though less of a
chance over eastern/se IL closer to retreating ridge. Best chances
of convection appears to be Monday afternoon over IL river valley
and over rest of central/se IL Monday night and Tue as stronger
upper level trof digs over the Midwest and cold front track se
through IL. Drier air finally returns later Wed into Thu along
with cooler temperatures as weak high pressure settles into IL.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2014
Models widely varied with solutions for the storms edging towards
the CWA...again. Keeping mention of VCTS in the northern terminals
PIA and BMI, VCSH for CMI. S/SWrly winds dominate, though winds will
likely see a temp change of direction with any convection/outflow
that moves through the area. Debris cirrus from regional
convection...cu tomorrow midday with more debris cirrus. Keeping
the vcts mention until the confidence is there that a terminal
will be affected. Chances increasing overnight...and into the
morning hours, but the cold pool will have to become strong enough
to push the boundary back to the south. So far, the warm front
creeping northward is keeping the bulk of the convection north.
Confidence in coverage and timing very low.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1217 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2014
...Updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
A minor upper level trough is currently moving through western
Kansas, with the stronger dynamics centered off to the north of our
CWA. There is a cold front in the vicinity from Hays to north of
Syracuse in Hamilton County as of 20z. A dry-line has formed and
was from approximately Liberal to Garden City to Hill City at 20z.
There was a lower level wave which moved up from the Texas Panhandle
earlier this afternoon, which shoved the dry-line northeastward into
the cold front, causing the cold front to bow northward in the Ness
City/Hays area. This dry-line intrusion into the cold front also
slowed the progress of the front to the southeast. A fairly good
amount of mid to high level clouds covered most of the CWA at 20z,
and a single storm formed near Scott City between 19Z and 20Z. The
short term models of the RUC, HRRR and ARW all backed off on a solid
line of storms forming along the dry-line this afternoon, but rather
a patchy line of storms. There will still probably be a few
isolated severe storms with quarter size hail, but do not think the
severe storms will be widespread or very big hail (quarters). Will
monitor SPC for a Watch.
Overnight, the precipitation band from this afternoon should move
east, with another surface low moving up from Oklahoma into the P28
area. The aforementioned front will progress southeast through our
CWA and be near a Pratt to Coldwater line by 12Z in the morning.
Therefore, with greater moisture available in the southeast zones,
will increase Pops there toward 12Z, and then spread the Pops back
to the northwest during the day Thursday. SPC`s Day2 outlook has
about our southeast 1/3rd of the CWA in a slight risk. We will be
cooler in the afternoon, with the cold front south of us. Have to
agree with SPC`s assessment though, with the NAM model showing 3700
J/Kg of MuCape in our eastern zones, and 24 to 27Kts of bulk shear
in that same zone Tuesday at 21Z. There will likely be some more
severe storms, again with Quarters to a little larger hail. The TOR
threat looks minimal, but some 60kt winds could easily mix down.
As for Max/Min temperatures, I did not change anything. Lows
tonight will be elevated in the 60F (NW) to 72F (SE) range. On
Thursday, it will be cooler with maximum temperatures ranging from
the mid 80s north of I-70 and upper 80s down south along the
Oklahoma border.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
The mid to upper level flow will become zonal by later this week and
into the weekend. This will allow for lee troughing and a dryline situated
across far western Kansas. Afternoon and early nighttime
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. But in the absence of upslope
flow this far south, and with the lack of low level baroclinicity
and a well defined upper level jet, organized thunderstorm
activity will probably stay farther north through Saturday. High
temperatures will be in the lower 90s through Saturday with lows
mainly in the 60s. Thunderstorm chances are higher by late Sunday
as a weak shortwave trough embedded in zonal flow traverses
western Kansas. Organized thunderstorm activity is possible into
Monday with this feature, along with cooler temperatures by
Monday. Thunderstorm chances may diminish by late Monday and
Tuesday as weak surface high pressure builds into western Kansas.
However, by late Tuesday and into mid to late next week, there
will be more opportunities for thunderstorms as westerly to
northwesterly mid to high level flow persists, along with weak
capping and plentiful low level moisture. High temperatures will
be held down by cloud cover and convective debris.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
VFR conditions will prevail with decreasing high level clouds.
Winds will start out from the south overnight shifting to the
northwest by sunrise tomorrow. this is due to a cold front moving
through the area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 63 91 68 94 / 20 20 20 10
GCK 62 92 66 94 / 10 20 20 10
EHA 63 91 66 94 / 10 10 20 10
LBL 64 92 68 95 / 20 10 20 10
HYS 62 91 67 93 / 10 20 20 20
P28 67 91 70 93 / 40 20 20 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Hovorka_42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1140 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
UPPER LEVEL DATA ANALYSIS ENDING AT 19Z SHOWS A CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION AS A RESULT OF THIS LOW. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD.
SATELLITE DATA LOOP ENDING AT 1915Z SHOWS AN AREA OF ACCAS THAT HAS
EXTENDED FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS HAS
BEEN PRESENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND OUTLINES THE AREA OF FAVORED
CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW DOWN TO NEAR
KODX-KTQK-KLIC. A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM JUST WEST OF KGCK...SOUTH TO
JUST WEST OF KLBL INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLE.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS INITIATED ACROSS WEST TEXAS ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAVORED AREA. THIS IS PRETTY CLOSE TO WHERE THE 17Z HRRR
RUN HAS SHOWN IT.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS CONVECTION.
COOK
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
LATEST SHORT TERM AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A LACK OF CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
STORM OVER BARTON/RUSSELL COUNTIES WILL PERSIST FOR A LITTLE
WHILE...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING STORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AS EARLIER GUIDANCE INDICATED. DID HOWEVER LEAVE SLIGHT
POPS OVERNIGHT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR THE CHANCE THAT SOME
OF THE STORMS FROM THE TX/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE MAKES IT THIS FAR
EAST. THINK THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
THE TREND OF THE HRRR RUNS FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO
SHOW MORE RAINFALL FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
A DIVERGENCE TO THE OTHER NWP...BUT GIVEN ITS ACCURACY AND
PERFORMANCE...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT.
AS FAR AS SEVERE GOES...SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AS ONE
MOVES EAST...DEEP LAYER SHEAR FALLS BELOW 20 KNOTS BEFORE YOU REACH
INTERSTATE 135. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE CONVECTION EAST OF
INTERSTATE 135.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS AGAIN LOOK
FAVORABLE...THOUGH ON THE LOWER END OF THAT FAVORABLY FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THIS FAVORABLY WILL
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. IF STORMS STRAY FROM OR
ORGANIZE AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE FRONT AND OUTRUN THE FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...THEY SHOULD WEAKEN.
COOK
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
INTO THE WEEKEND...THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS AROUND THE
REGION. NWP IS IN SOME DISARRAY WITH THE POSITION OF THE
BOUNDARY...AFFECTED BY OUTFLOWS AND COLD POOLS. CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTION LOCATION IS QUITE LOW. THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THE FRONT REMAINS IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST
AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. SEVERE CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE NEAR THE STALLED FRONT...WHICH SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS
ARE MOST FAVORABLE.
COOK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
CONVECTION HAS WANED THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EXPECT
THAT TO REMAIN FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THERE IS A
CHANCE SOME CONVECTION MOVING NORTHEAST COULD IMPACT KICT OVER THE
NEXT 4-5 HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE ACTIVITY OVER THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES MAKING IT THIS FAR EAST IS NOT OVERLY
HIGH. WINDS IN CENTRAL KANSAS ARE BEING IMPACTED BY THE OUTFLOW
FOR EARLIER STORMS...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO TAKE OVER AS THIS
LAYER ERODES.
THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR CONVECTION IS THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
AND MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. THIS MAY IMPACT MANY OF THE
TERMINALS...BUT WITH MODEL DESCREPANCES...CONFIDENCE IS REALLY
LOW ON TIMING AND LOCATION AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF THIS ISSUANCE.
LOW VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT THAT
GETS STALLED UP BETWEEN KRSL/KSLN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 73 90 70 90 / 20 50 70 30
HUTCHINSON 73 90 69 91 / 30 50 70 20
NEWTON 72 88 69 90 / 20 50 70 20
ELDORADO 72 86 68 88 / 20 60 70 30
WINFIELD-KWLD 73 88 70 90 / 20 50 60 30
RUSSELL 70 89 66 92 / 50 40 40 20
GREAT BEND 70 89 67 92 / 50 40 50 20
SALINA 73 90 68 92 / 20 50 60 20
MCPHERSON 72 89 68 91 / 20 50 70 20
COFFEYVILLE 74 85 70 88 / 10 50 50 30
CHANUTE 73 85 69 88 / 20 50 50 30
IOLA 73 85 69 88 / 20 50 50 30
PARSONS-KPPF 73 85 70 88 / 10 50 50 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
131 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
A FEW TINY SHOWERS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING ACROSS MORGAN AND ELLIOT
COUNTIES. THESE HAVE ALREADY DISSIPATED LEAVING EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY
FOR THE TIME BEING. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST
EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE SLID BY TO THE NORTH AND STAYED WELL AWAY
FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY. THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD DRY PERIOD CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE ACTIVITY IS NOTED ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA/ILLINOIS...AND THIS MAY WORK SOUTHWARD TOWARDS OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY IS ALREADY STARTING OFF FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ACTIVITY
EARLIER THIS EVENING...SO SOME QUESTION EXISTS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
IT WILL EVEN MAKE IT HERE. WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE DOWNGRADED POPS A
BIT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. CHANCES ARE CERTAINLY BETTER
THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON
CONVECTION TOMORROW MORNING AND BETTER CHANCES MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
BETTER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
UPDATED A BIT EARLIER TO REMOVE THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE EVENING AS WE
HAVE STABILIZED QUITE WELL IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS. STILL WATCHING SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THEY PUSH
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. SOME OF THESE COULD THREATEN
OUR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS
TIME...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY OUT OF OUR AREA
TONIGHT. BETTER THREAT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
LIMITED ANY THUNDER CHANCES LATE TONIGHT TO MAINLY OUR NORTHERN AREAS
WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT RESIDES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHILE AN ACTIVE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS FOUND LYING WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. TODAY/S ROUND OF MCS
ACTIVITY IS ROLLING EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WELL TO THE NORTH OF
KENTUCKY. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS DID DEVELOP OVER FAR EAST
KENTUCKY EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AND KICKED OFF A FEW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...BUT THESE SECONDARY STORMS WERE NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES. PERHAPS THAT WAS DUE TO SOME MID LEVEL WARMING NOTED IN
THE NAM12 SOUNDINGS FOR THE AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...A SMALL RISK FOR
UNORGANIZED STORMS REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE EVENING...WHILE MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE SPARED.
THIS LEAVES JUST VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. TO TOP IT OFF...EVEN THE WINDS HAVE BEEN
OF LITTLE RELIEF...FOR THOSE THAT MISSED OUT ON THE STORMS...MOSTLY
JUST LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST...FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH. THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE...WEAK AS
IT IS...WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH LATER TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH
AND ITS ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THE RIDGE
FURTHER FADES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
REAL MODEL CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND THE WAVY BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH
OF KENTUCKY AND INDICATIONS THAT IT WILL CURL SOUTH TO THIS PART
OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL SEND THE PREFERRED
MCS TRACK CLOSE TO OUR AREA AND LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A WET END
TO THE WORK WEEK. GIVEN THE SMALLER SCALES THAT WILL BE
DETERMINATIVE FOR THE ACTUAL MOVEMENT AND EXTENT OF SUCH ACTIVITY
HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM12 THAN THE OTHER MODELS...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY SPECIFICS GIVEN THE NATURE OF SUCH LATE
SPRING/EARLY SUMMER MCS/QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EVENTS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AN EARLY DIE OUT OF PINHEAD CONVECTION
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A MUGGY AND WARM NIGHT. MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR PARTS OF
OHIO WITH A GOOD POTENTIAL TO FOLLOW THE LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO
NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY TOWARD DAWN. THE SOUPY ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD THEN SUPPORT AIR MASS...AND BETTER ORGANIZED...STORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL LINGERING
WELL INTO THE NIGHT GIVEN THE BOUNDARY RIGHT ON OUR NORTHEAST
BORDER. WILL CONTINUE MEDIUM POP CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA FROM NEAR DAWN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AGAIN STARTED WITH THE BCCONSSHORT FOR T/TD AND WINDS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN USED THE BCCONSALL. DID MAKE SOME MINUSCULE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE VALLEY AND RIDGE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOR POPS...ENDED CLOSEST TO THE MAV NUMBERS TONIGHT AND THEN
SIMILAR TO A MOS BLEND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH HAS BROUGHT US THE RECENT HOT WEATHER
WILL BE SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST. DESPITE THIS EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. HOWEVER THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE GREATER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.80 TO
OVER 1.95 INCHES AT 00Z ON SATURDAY...OR AROUND OR POSSIBLY GREATER
THAN THE 99TH PERCENTILE. THIS...COMBINED WITH STORM MOTION FORECAST
TO BE 5 TO 15 KNOTS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ISOLATED FLOODING. HAVE MENTIONED THIS
POSSIBILITY IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THE FRONT SHOULD GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND BUT STILL NEED TO BE MENTIONED IN THE
FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT TO START THE LONG
TERM PERIOD THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT
ANY THAT CHANGE THE OVERALL FORECAST OF DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE NORTH AS A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES SOUTH ACROSS INDIANA AND OHIO. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY MAKE A SHARP TURN EASTWARD...WITH OUR
NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES PERHAPS SEEING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
8 OR 9Z. COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY...LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
BEGINNING BETWEEN 15 AND 17Z TODAY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OUT JUST
NORTH OF THE RIVER...BRINGING A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE AREA NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80
CORRIDOR. JKL AND SJS WILL SEE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. LOZ AND SME WILL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THE PERIOD BEGINNING AROUND 16Z TODAY. CIGS OF 3.5
TO 4K WILL BE COMMON WITH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT AFFECT THE TAF
SITES TODAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1230 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BUT THERE SHOULD
BE A BREAK ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE STORMS
RETURN ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
WILL CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE OVER
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. LEFT AREAS OF FOG IN...BUT IT APPEARS
IT WILL BE FAIRLY PATCHY WITH 15+ KNOTS WINDS AT 1K FT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
LINE OF STORMS DEPARTING THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A LULL EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AIRMASS
SHOULD GET A CHANCE TO DESTABILIZE BEFORE SUNSET...WHICH ALLOWS NEW
STORMS TO FIRE UP AS AN MCV TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA. THIS HAS BEEN INDICATED BY THE HRRR AS WELL AS THE 12Z GFS
AND ECMWF. POPS AND QPF SHADED HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTH.
STORMS DIMINISH THURSDAY UNDER SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND PICK UP
AGAIN FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
QUASI ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAK UPPER IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE PERIOD. ONE OF THOSE WAVES WILL PUSH A
WEAK COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CWA FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS LOW PRESSURE
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES ENE. WE/LL HAVE CHC POPS
BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CARRY THAT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT MOVING THE LOW TO
ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS HIGHER QPF VS THE GFS BUT BOTH
SHOW SHOWERS. WE/LL LIKELY HAVE TO INCREASE POPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK IF THE TREND CONTINUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
LOW CEILINGS AND FOG ARE NOW SETTLING INTO THE TAF SITES...AND THE
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DOWN AT LEAST IN REGARD TO CEILINGS.
EXPECTING IFR CEILINGS AT ALL THE TAFS SITES WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LIFR AND LOWER IS POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH
400FT CEILINGS ALREADY IN PLACE AT KJXN. THE FOG SHOULD NOT GET
TOO BAD WITH SOME WIND AT 1000FT...SO EXPECTING VSBY/S TO REMAIN
MVFR. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF
THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY TAKING OVER IN THE 16Z TO
19Z TIME FRAME. VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG...WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN BLO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014
RIVERS ARE RUNNING WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS AND NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER... THE GRAND AND MUSKEGON RIVERS ARE
BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RISE DUE TO THE RAIN FROM TUESDAY AND TODAY.
ONLY THE ROGUE RIVER AT ROCKFORD LOOKS LIKE IT MAY RISE TO NEAR
BANKFULL... AND THAT WOULD BE TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD ADD LITTLE ADDITIONAL RISE TO THE RIVERS. THURSDAY
MIGHT BE A DRY DAY... BUT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY COULD BRING MORE POINTS UP TO NEAR BANKFULL. RIVER FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED. MINOR AREAL FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE
HEAVY RAIN IN THE THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JK
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...OSTUNO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
450 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
ANOTHER ACTIVE NIGHT IS WINDING DOWN...AND FOR THE SECOND NIGHT IN A
ROW WE SAW SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS RESULT FROM
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY NIGHT WAS MANKATO...AND LAST NIGHT
IT WAS WOOD LAKE...WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW 6 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL...AND MUCH OF THAT CAME WITHIN THE FIRST 3 HOURS OF IT STARING
TO RAIN. UNFORTUNATELY...THE ATMOSPHERE THAT HELPED ALLOW THAT TO
HAPPEN WITH PWATS AOA 1.75" AND FREEZING LEVELS ABOVE 15K ARE STILL
IN PLACE AND WILL REMAIN SO UNTIL A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BACK OVER
ERN SODAK CLEARS THE AREA TONIGHT.
FOR THIS MORNING...THE RAP SHOWS THE LLJ BECOMING BIFURCATED...WITH
ONE SEGMENT SAGGING SE ACROSS IA TOWARD NRN IL...WHILE ANOTHER
SECTION WILL BE ANGLING FROM SRN MN BACK TOWARD ERN NODAK. YOU CAN
SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS LLJ SLIT OVER THE LAST HOUR ON REGIONAL
RADARS AS ACTIVITY HAS REALLY STARTED TO BECOME FOCUSED OVER NE IA.
THE SEGMENT OF THE LLJ DEVELOPING FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST IS
HELPING FORCE AN INTENSE LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY RACING NORTH
ACROSS ERN SODAK. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE MPX CWA IS THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS OVER ERN MN WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS WRN WI THIS
MORNING AS IT LOSES ITS LLJ FEED...WITH THE WRN LLJ SEGMENT
FOCUSING ACTIVITY INTO NW MN THIS MORNING. THIS WILL SEND US INTO
ANOTHER PRECIP BREAK PERIOD THAT WILL START BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS BREAK WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED. AS THE SODAK
FRONT WORKS INTO WRN MN THIS AFTERNOON...CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT
YET ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR A RWF/AXN LINE
BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z THAT WILL THEN WORK EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MOST CAMS SHOW THIS SCENARIO PLAYING OUT...BUT THE SPC AND
ARW WRFS SHOW VERY LITTLE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE FRONT.
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST WEIGHS HEAVILY ON THE CONVECTING
MAJORITY...YOU CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE MORE LIMITED
SOLUTIONS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION TONIGHT CAN OVERTURN THE
ATMOSPHERE. IF ENOUGH OVERTURNING OCCURS...THEN THOSE LIMITED
ACTIVITY SOLUTIONS MAY BE CORRECT. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF THE
MID LEVEL WARM AIR CAP...PREFER THE SOLUTIONS THAT SHOW ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THINKING THE THREAT...THOUGH STILL
THERE...WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ONE BIG
REASON IS THAT THE 5K TO 6K J/KG OF MLCAPE IN THE WARM SECTOR SEEN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A MUCH MORE MODEST 1K TO
2K J/KG TODAY. IN ADDITION...0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE RANGING FROM 35-40
KTS NEAR THE MN/SD BORDER /CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW/ TO LESS THAN 20
KTS OVER WRN WI. THE ONE THING THAT IS BETTER TODAY THAN WHAT WE SAW
YESTERDAY ARE THE DYNAMICS AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH APPROACHES
WRN MN BY 00Z WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70+ KT LLJ. MORE
BOUNDARY PARALLEL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON FAVORS A LINEAR CONVECTIVE
MODE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...AS THE SMALLER CAPES AND LINEAR MODE SHOULD BOTH HELP TO
SUPPRESS THE HAIL AND TORNADO THREATS /AS COMPARED TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS/.
THOUGH UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES...A FRONT LIKE THIS AFTERNOONS
WOULD NOT TYPICALLY GARNER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...THIS IS NOT A
TYPICAL SITUATION AS ALL BUT THE NRN TIER OF THE MPX CWA HAS SEEN 4
TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE FRIDAY ON TOP OF WHAT WAS ALREADY ONE OF
THE WETTEST STARTS TO A YEAR ON RECORD. WITH ONLY A SMALL BREAK IN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED...EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT IN
TIME TO 6Z TONIGHT WEST OF I-35 AND TO 12Z TONIGHT EAST OF I-35. THE
WATCH WAS ALSO EXPANDED NORTH TO INCLUDE THE AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED 3+ INCHES OF RAIN SINCE FRIDAY. ALSO ENDED THE WATCH AT 15Z
FOR THE FAR WRN COUNTIES...AS THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO START OVER OR JUST EAST OF THOSE COUNTIES...SO CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THOSE
COUNTIES AFTER THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
A DRIER POST FRONTAL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SURFACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WI. WE
THINK THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE AT SUNSHINE AND MODEST W-SW FLOW
COMBINED WITH 16-19 C AT 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA /WESTERN WI SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MN/. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD BUILD SOUTH AND MOISTURE RETURN
SHOULD BRING PWATS BACK UP NEAR 1.5-1.75" IN THE FAR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA. THE RETURN OF WEAK 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
FGEN BACK ACROSS NORTHERN NE AND EASTERN SD COULD MEAN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAKE IT INTO WESTERN MN ON SATURDAY...BUT THE BETTER
FOCUS IS IN THE STATES THAT BORDER MN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
PRECIP SIGNAL ON SUNDAY IS MUDDLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN
INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE AND OMEGA...BUT WE CAN`T PIN DOWN AN AREA
TO FOCUS POPS/WEATHER AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS LOW AND THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. DURING THIS TIME...THE
UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN CAMPED OUT TO OUR NORTHWEST DRIFTS SLOWLY
NORTH WITH TIME AND THE LONG WAVE FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL /SLIGHT
RIDGING/. BOTH THE 19.00Z GFS/ECMWF AND TO SOME DEGREE NAM HAVE A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE PSUEDO-ZONAL FLOW ARRIVING
IN THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE STRETCHED OUT ACROSS KS/IA/WI WHICH SHOULD BE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN COOLER AIR TO THE AREA AND
ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE BY TUESDAY. 00Z GFS NOW SHOWING 850 TEMPS
OF 8C TO 10C FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 00Z EURO AND EVEN THE
PREVIOUS ENSEMBLE RUNS STILL HAS 850 TEMPS OF 12C TO 14C DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM PAST GFS RUNS.
SO...MODEL CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLES ARE THE WAY TO GO. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE ECMWF HAS ALSO SHOWED AGREES IVE COLD
ADVECTION WITH A RUN OR TWO IN THE PAST 2-3 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MN WI BORDER HAS SLOWED THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF STORMS OVER WRN MN. THEREFORE...SLOWED ARRIVAL OF
SHRA/TSRA LATER THIS MORNING FOR TERMINALS OUT EAST...CLOSER TO
TIMING SEEN WITH THE HRRR. CURRENT THOUGHT PLAYED OUT IN TAFS IS
THAT STORMS WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST DURING THE MORNING...WITH A
TEMPORARY LULL IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN ABOUT 16Z AND 20Z...WITH NEXT
ROUND OF STORMS GOING UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN WRN MN BETWEEN 19Z
AND 21Z THAT THEN WORK EAST INTO THE EVENING. FOR THIS POTENTIAL
LINE OF STORMS...WENT WITH PROB30 GROUPS AS HI-RES CAMS ARE
SHOWING A BIT OF SPREAD AS TO HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WILL GO UP ON THE
FRONT ALONG WITH TIMING OF ANY POTENTIAL ACTIVITY. GFSLAMP CIG
FORECASTS THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN DOWN RIGHT ATROCIOUS WHEN IT
COMES TO OVER FORECASTING OCCURRENCE OF MVFR CIGS...SO KEPT CONDS
VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA ACTIVITY.
KMSP...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA IMPACTING TERMINAL THIS
MORNING...THOUGH WILL TAKE A WHILE TO GET HERE...MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z. SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE AREA MUCH OF THE
MORNING...BEFORE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN STORMS IMPACTING MSP IN THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH LOWER ON TIMING AT THIS POINT...SO WENT THE
PROB30 ROUTE FOR NOW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. MVFR ISO SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. MVFR ISO SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS W 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. MVFR SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS WNW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MNZ057>061-065>069-
073>077-082>085-091>093.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ047-
054>056-064.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MNZ062-063-070-078.
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WIZ023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
411 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2014
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
Water vapor imagery, as well as 08z RAP analysis indicates a fairly
potent trough over the northern Rockies, with southwesterly flow
over the Central Plains and over the forecast area. A shortwave
trough rotating around the larger low has sparked thunderstorms
across eastern Colorado and central Kansas, which have since moved
into central Nebraska. A decent veered low level jet is currently
nosing into southern Iowa and could produce enough convergence to
produce some early morning convection across southern/central Iowa,
and perhaps northern Missouri. The scenario in which the forecast
area gets any appreciable precip during the morning hours on
Thursday is pretty low confidence, but will cover the potential with
SChc PoPs through 12z and Chc PoPs through 18z. The better chance
for precipitation will come later this afternoon and this evening,
as the axis of a shortwave trough pivots through the area. This will
likely provide enough mid level ascent to produce scattered to
widespread showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon hours. A
warm and very moist atmosphere will lend itself to a high amount of
instability, ranging from 3000 to 3500 J/kg of SB Cape. With the
lack of any really good veering winds with height and lack of any
appreciable speed increase with height the deep layer shear on
Thursday will be rather anemic, generally in the 20 to 30 kt range.
The large instability will lend itself to strong updrafts, but with
the chance for competing updrafts and lack of wind shear feel the
severe threat for Thursday will be marginal. While scattered to
widespread thunderstorms will be possible later this evening, the
severe threat should be relegated to isolated coverage, with gusty
winds, heavy rain, lighting, and perhaps hail up to half dollar in
size will be the main hazards as we go forward into the evening.
Given the potential for scattered to broken clouds through the day,
with perhaps some rain, took temperatures for Thursday afternoon
down a couple degrees, with max temps in the lower to middle 80s.
The trough axis should clear the forecast area by late tonight,
shunting the better lift for precipitation formation further to the
east. Thusly have a gradual decrease in PoPs through the overnight
hours, with the best chances across central Missouri toward the
overnight hours on Thursday. Expect Friday and Saturday to remain
mostly dry across the area, however with one or more MCS`s rolling
through the northern plains through the weekend it will remain
possible for the northern half of the CWA to perhaps see the
southern end of any MCS activity through Sunday morning. Latest
ECMWF paints a trough, embedded within the mostly zonal flow,
rolling through the area Sunday afternoon, perhaps bringing the next
best chance for rain Sunday afternoon through the evening. Showers
and thunderstorms could remain in the area through Monday afternoon,
as a cold frontal boundary will eventually slide through the area
erasing the chances for rain. The timing of this front on Monday
will dictate how long the thunderstorms stick around, but the
general feeling at this point is that they should be at least
through western Missouri by Monday evening, moving through central
Missouri by early Tuesday morning. Thereafter, expect a generally
dry forecast with perhaps a few bouts with isolated to scattered
convection through the mid to late week period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
VFR conditions continue for this forecast. Winds have decoupled some
so will strip out gusts till later Thursday morning. As speculated
in the last discussion the KS convection is waning and expect this
trend to continue through the night. Hi-Res models continue to back
off on introducing convection to the terminals and favor their
solutions. Continue to ignore the NAM output. Think convective
chances will gradually ramp up with afternoon heating and opted to
introduce a TEMPO group late in the day at peak heating.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1145 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 906 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2014
Convection across northern IL this evening along and north of a
front. the NAM model tries to sag this front southward late
tonight as a surface ridge builds southward into the Great Lakes
region. The latest NAM model run appears too far south with its
QPF tonight. The latest HRRR keeps the convection just north and
northeast of our forecast area until 12z Thursday. Still think we
may have at least isolated showers/storms across northeast MO and
west central IL late tonight as additional convection continues to
develop further southward across eastern IA and northern IL. Low
temperatures tonight should be similar to last night, about 10
degrees above normal, with continued southerly winds and relatively
high surface dew points.
GKS
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2014
Convective trends are the primary concern for the short term. The
outflow boundary from last night`s MCS is becoming weaker and more
diffuse with time, think it extends from near Galesburg IL to near
Burlington IA northwest to near Washington IA. The airmass along
and south of the boundary is uncapped or nearly so, and is sporting
MLCAPE values of 3500 J/kg. It looks like the majority of the
convergence is north of our area, but there are a few cells which
are developing in our area back across southwest Illinois in an area
of agitated CU...possibly caused by southward propagating gravity
waves from earlier convection across Illinois. Expect these
isolated cells to gradually diminish as we lose diurnal heating, but
there may be some additional development along the outflow boundary
in southeast Iowa and west central Illinois. If strong enough
storms can form, and if they can get a sufficiently strong cold pool
to develop, they could produce a south-southwestward propagating
cluster of storms, riding the instability and low level jet into
northeast Missouri and the Quincy area. 700mb temperatures were +10
to +12 C this morning just south of the outflow boundary, with no
cooler air on the horizon, so would expect any storms that do form
to have a difficult time getting much further south than perhaps
Moberly, or Hannibal. With that much instability available, severe
storms are possible, but low level wind shear/helicity are lacking
so would expect the primary threat to be damaging wind and/or large
hail.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Thursday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2014
Mass fields in the models are in generally good agreement through
the end of the week ejecting the cut off low currently camping out
over western Montana northeast into Manitoba or Saskatchewan by 00Z
Saturday. This will flatten out the upper level ridge and most
likely allow for a general increase in convection coverage
(primarily over central and northeast Missouri) Thursday and Friday
afternoon. Temperatures on Thursday and Friday should be similar to
what we`ve been experiencing the past few days, upper 80s and low
90s. The exception to this rule may be that afternoon convection
could locally suppress temperatures.
Convective trends continue to be a challenge out in the medium range
with the flow staying quasi-zonal. The GFS looks horribly
contaminated with grid-scale convective feedback. It generates
multiple small vortmaxes and omega bullseyes starting Saturday and
continuing through the end of the forecast period. The ECMWF looks
more reasonable with the quasi-zonal pattern giving way to a trof
moving across the mountains into the Great Plains Sunday night and
Monday. While I can`t rule out convection through the weekend, it
looks like the best chances for rain will hold off until early next
week. Temperatures will likely stay on the warm side of climatology
through the weekend, but cool slightly to near normal levels by
midweek as the trof moves into the area.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2014
Quasi-stationary front is currently oriented northwest to
southeast across southern Minnesota to east-central Illinois.
Convection tonight has developed along and on the cool side of the
boundary. Models develop convection further to the south and west
oveernight as effective boundary also travels that way due to
outflow boundary/high pressure builds in over the Great Lakes.
HRRR keeps convection out of area to the north and east through
tomorrow morning and followed closely as it initialized convection
well whereas NAM/GFS were too far south and west with
precipitation ending at 0600 UTC tonight. Did introduce a VCTS
group however for late tomorrow afternoon/evening as latest 0000
UTC NAM/GFS advect a ridge-running shortwave trough which should
help initiate some convection within a very unstable atmosphere.
Outside of any thunderstorms...TAF sites will remain VFR with
south/southwest winds.
Specifics for KSTL:
Quasi-stationary front is currently oriented northwest to
southeast across southern Minnesota to east-central Illinois.
Convection tonight has developed along and on the cool side of the
boundary. Models develop convection further to the south and west
oveernight as effective boundary also travels that way due to
outflow boundary/high pressure builds in over the Great Lakes.
HRRR keeps convection well to the north and east of KSTL through
tomorrow morning and followed closely as it initialized convection
well this evening whereas NAM/GFS were too far south and west with
precipitation ending at 0600 UTC. Did introduce a VCTS group
however for late tomorrow afternoon/evening as latest 0000 UTC
NAM/GFS advect a ridge-running shortwave trough which should help
initiate some convection within a very unstable atmosphere.
Outside of any thunderstorms...terminal is expected to remain VFR
with south/southwest winds.
Gosselin
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
317 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT. TROWAL ON WEST
SIDE OF LOW IS WRAPPING SOME PCPN IN OUR FAR NW...MAINLY OVER THE
MTNS AS LOW LEVELS ARE DOWNSLOPED. AREA OF PV WILL DROP OUT OF
SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND OFFER DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS IT
ROTATES AROUND THE LOW THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
SHOWER COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTH. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PER THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND RELATIVELY
COLD AIR ALOFT...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WE WILL BE
EXPERIENCING HEIGHT RISES THRU THE DAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PUSH
SLOWLY EAST. THUS AS WE WARM THE MID LEVELS EXPECT AFTERNOON CAPE
VALUES TO BE VERY MODEST. OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST TODAY IS
ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS WYOMING. THERE IS FAIRLY STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE OCCURRING CURRENTLY IN FAR SOUTHEAST MT IN RRQ OF 110
KT H3 JET. THIS ALONG WITH AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
850MB CONVERGENCE MAY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN TSTMS IN THE
CARTER COUNTY AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE HRRR AND RAP ARE
BOTH SUGGESTING. ALSO... REMARKABLY FOR MID JUNE...LIVINGSTON IS
GAPPING WITH WIND GUSTS HAVING ALREADY TOPPED 50 MPH TONIGHT. WE
SHOULD NOT SEE HIGHER GUSTS THAN THIS...AND BY 15Z LOW LEVELS WILL
START TO BECOME MIXED...BUT NONETHELESS HAVE RAISED WIND SPEEDS
ALONG OUR WESTERN FOOTHILLS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PERIOD OF GAP
FLOW. MIXED WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT LIVINGSTON THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THROUGH TONIGHT AS DOWNSLOPE
GRADIENTS REMAIN IN PLACE. FINALLY...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB
TODAY PER THE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS AND GOOD MIXING. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S...AND HAVE TWEAKED EXPECTED HIGHS
UP A BIT.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW EXITS...
FINALLY...AND RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. FRIDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY
DRY AND WARMER DAY WITH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...
THE WARMEST WE HAVE SEEN IN OVER A WEEK. BACKING MID LEVEL FLOW
WITH WEAK PACIFIC ENERGY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LATE DAY WEAK
CONVECTION IN OUR WEST...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUGGESTING SOME DECENT WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS NEAR SUCH PLACES
AS LIVINGSTON AND HARLOWTON. TONIGHTS MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED A
BIT STRONGER WITH THE PASSAGE OF A NIGHTTIME SHORTWAVE AND SFC
COLD FRONT...SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS OUR WEST AND NORTH
THRU LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
OVERALL CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TOWARD A SLIGHTLY
COOLER SOLUTION THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THE MAIN REASON FOR
THIS TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND IS
DRIVEN BY MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PASSAGES. FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE
NEXT WEEK...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE
GFS BUILDS IN RIDGING...WHILE THE EC AND CANADIAN HAVE TAKEN A
SHARP TREND TOWARD HOLDING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. DECIDED TO LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARD THE EC/GEM SOLUTIONS IN
THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WHETHER THE
GFS TRENDS IN THAT DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES.
AS FOR THIS WEEKEND...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BOTH LOOK TO BE VERY
PLEASANT DAYS WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. ON SATURDAY...COOLED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AS THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE PULLS THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BETWEEN THE EASTERLY FLOW BRINGING IN MORE
MOISTURE AND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY MARGINAL
AT THIS POINT...SO ONLY EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.
COOLED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY...GIVEN
A BETTER SURGE OF COOL AIR BEHIND THE MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE. 700MB
TEMPERATURES COOL FROM +8C ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...TO +4C ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE TROUGH OVERHEAD SUNDAY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE BETTER...WITH SHOWALTER INDICES -1 TO -2 OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA. THUS EXPECT TO SEE A LITTLE BETTER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON SUNDAY. OVERALL...DONT SEE MUCH CONCERN
FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS POINT...DUE TO MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.
CHURCH
&&
.AVIATION...
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM KLVM TO KBIL TO
KMLS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THOSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. WE ALSO EXPECT
THERE A IS A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCH FOG NEAR KMLS AND KBHK THROUGH
15Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY. WINDS NEAR LIVINGSTON WILL REMAIN
STRONG THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS...THEN CONTINUE
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
CHURCH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 075 054/083 056/081 056/076 055/079 056/083 056/083
3/T 20/U 22/T 23/T 33/T 33/T 33/T
LVM 073 048/080 047/078 048/075 048/077 049/081 050/079
4/T 12/T 23/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 33/T
HDN 076 050/084 052/084 054/079 053/080 054/085 056/085
3/T 20/U 12/T 23/T 33/T 33/T 33/T
MLS 074 054/083 058/083 058/078 057/080 058/083 060/085
4/T 31/U 21/U 22/T 22/T 22/T 11/B
4BQ 074 051/083 054/082 056/078 055/079 054/082 055/085
2/T 21/U 12/T 33/T 32/T 22/T 12/T
BHK 072 052/080 055/080 055/075 054/076 054/079 056/082
2/T 31/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 11/U
SHR 073 047/082 050/081 052/075 051/077 052/081 053/082
2/T 11/U 02/T 23/T 33/T 34/T 43/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1155 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
LINE OF STORMS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AND PICKING UP STEAM. BUT
INTENSITY HAS OVERALL DECREASED AND WITH INCREASED CIN LAYER AT
THE SURFACE...SPC THINKS THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND IS LESS. STILL
SOMETHING TO WATCH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN SASK THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SURFACE LOW
AT 00Z FROM OBS LOOKS TO BE JUST NORTHEAST OF PIERRE SD. RAP/HRRR
HAS THIS SFC LOW DRIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD ABERDEEN AREA BY 10Z.
STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE INFLOW AND AXIS OF INSTABILITY AND 1500
J/KG ELEVATED CAPE ALL ADVECT INTO SOUTHEAST ND 04Z-09Z PERIOD
AND RAP MODEL SHOWS 50 KT 850 MB INFLOW AS WELL. FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS MAIN ACTION WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS EXTREME SFC
INSTABILITY POCKET REMAINS IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN SD/NW IOWA. THIS
AREA AROUND SIOUX FALLS AND ENVIRONS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
WHICH WILL MERGE INTO A MCS TONIGHT. AREA OF GENERAL RAIN/STORMS
NORTH OF THIS INTO ERN ND. QUESTION IS SEVERE. ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES AND INFLOW SUGGEST SOME SEVERE STORMS PSBL IN THE 04-09Z
PERIOD IN SOUTHEASTERN ND BUT COVERAGE OF SEVERE IS QUESTIONABLE
ATTM. MOISTURE NOT A PROBLEM AS SLOW MOVEMENT NORTHWARD OF
INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL GIVE HEAVY RAINFALL BUT AS USUAL WHERE AND
HOW MUCH WILL FALL IN QUESTION AND FOR TIME THE TIME BEING WRN
FCST AREA HAS SEEN LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN THIS MONTH. SO NOT FLOOD
HEADLINES ATTM.
UPON COORD WITH MPX/DLH DID BACK OFF ON NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT OF
STORMS TONIGHT WITH SLOWER ARRIVAL TIMING. HRRR/RAP HAVE STORMS
REACHING NR PKD-GFK AREA 10Z OR SO AND FAR NORTHEASTERN AREAS 12Z
OR SO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
CHALLENGES INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL AND SEVERE STORMS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. RAP/HRRR HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH EVOLUTION OF TONIGHT/S SET-UP...SO WILL FOLLOW HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THROUGH 18 HOURS. THEREAFTER...WILL USE A
GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE.
CONVECTION HAS FIRED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST SD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE CAP HAS ERODED ALONG SFC TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR THE EASTERN NE/SD BORDER. FARTHER
EAST...CAP IS VERY STRONG AS EVIDENT ON 18 UTC ABR SOUNDING AND
WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR LOW-LEVEL JET SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION TO
INITIATE AND TAP INTO ELEVATED CAPE UPWARD OF 1500 J/KG. UPDATES
MADE AT 1 PM STILL VALID...SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH 00 UTC
WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. BEST SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND ALONG THE NOSE OF THE 850
HPA JET (HAIL/WIND/TORNADOES) WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE REGION-WIDE.
MUCH OF EASTERN ND HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY...SO NO NEED FOR FLOOD
WATCH...BUT SLOW-MOVING EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS MAY REQUIRE
ADVISORIES.
SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SEVERE THREAT WILL DEPEND ON EVOLUTION OF
TONIGHT/S STORMS...BUT ANY BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AND RESULTANT HEATING
COULD HELP INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN A
MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND A 50 KT 500 HPA JET STREAK ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. EVEN WITHOUT SEVERE CONVECTION...
STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE BROADER
SFC TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PWATS INCREASE
TO 1.75 INCHES...SO WILL NEED TO CAREFULLY MONITOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FLOODING ESPECIALLY AS PRECIP MOVES INTO
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN WHICH HAS BEEN HIT HARD BY RECENT
HEAVY RAIN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
THERE COULD BE SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS THE WEAKENING SFC LOW WOBBLES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIES...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY. TEMPERATURES
BOTH DAYS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND ON FRIDAY SHIFTING TO THE WEST ON SATURDAY.
FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT OVERALL DRIER WEATHER WITH
TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WE SHOULD REMAIN IN OVERALL
ZONAL FLOW WITH SOME RIDGING ALOFT. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS/
STORMS REALLY ANY DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT OVERALL
NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. WE WILL MAINTAIN
SOME LOWER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH...TYPICAL OF A SUMMER
LIKE PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
TRICKY FCST WITH RAIN TIMING AND ANY MVFR CIGS AS RAIN MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A WIND GUST IN FARGO SHORTLY.
IDEA THURSDAY IS FOR WINDS TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST GFK-FAR-DVL
REGION MIDDAY-AFTERNOON AND CIGS TO IMPROVE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
324 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WETTER WITH ROUNDS OF STORMS/SHOWERS INTO WEEKEND...WITH FRONT IN
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TO WATCH INTO THIS MORNING. LARGE
MASS OF RELATIVELY STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY JUST OF TO
NW...ASSOCIATED WITH 500MB VORT MAX THAT THE RAP SHOWS WEAKENING
AS IT ENTERS CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS CONVECTION ALSO
HAS PUT OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM CMH TO
CVG...WHICH COULD DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT MOVES EAST TOWARD AND INTO CWA. SECOND AREA OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM SW OF CRW TO AROUND EKN. THIS
IS ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING SE. ALL
IN ALL...HAVE A TRICKY FORECAST WHEN IT COMES TO TIMING OF
CONVECTION TODAY...AS MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING IT VERY WELL
UP TO THIS POINT. IN GENERAL...JUST USED EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS TO DRAW POPS THROUGH THE MORNING. BY THIS
AFTERNOON...HAVE SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTH...INTO NORTHERN
CWA...WITH TAIL OF THIS MORNINGS VORT MAX STILL PULLING OUT. SO
HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY...GRADUALLY SINKING
SOUTH INTO TONIGHT. WITH VERY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY
SHOWER/STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOWNPOURS. WILL LEAVE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AS IS...ALTHOUGH THINK STREAMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE RAIN
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AND IT MIGHT JUST BE PRIMING THE GROUND FOR
RAIN LATER THIS WEEK. GRANTED...ANY DOWNPOUR COULD CAUSE WATER TO
POND IN TYPICAL AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. COOLED TEMPS ACROSS THE
NORTH BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BOUNDARY IN THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
LITTLE INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...A MID-LEVEL TROF WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY...BEFORE PUSHING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT.
A SURFACE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST. THE NAM INDICATES THIS
FEATURE WILL PUSH EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS
CLOSER TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH
OF FRIDAY NIGHT. END RESULT OF ALL OF THIS SHOULD BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN DURING THESE TWO PERIODS.
THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST OF REGION BY EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY. NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL
FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD LOWER
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS...AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY
RAIN IN FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CONTINUED GENERALLY MESSY AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD....CHARACTERIZED BY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. W/NW
FLOW WITH A DIFFUSE SFC FRONT REMAINS DRAPED NEAR THE AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVES BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. TOUGH TO PIN DOWN EXACT TIMING OF COURSE THIS
FAR IN ADVANCE WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING BETWEEN OP EXTENDED
NWP...WITH VARYING ENSEMBLES NOT REALLY AIDING MUCH.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TODAY. FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY WHERE/WHEN LOWER
CATEGORY CONDITIONS WILL BE. IN THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE ANYTIME...SO
ANTICIPATE NEEDING AMENDMENTS AS THE TRENDS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
INCLUDED A BIT OF MVFR FOG BETWEEN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION AT PKB AND
CKB...WHERE HAS FALLEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT CLOUDS AND
A LIGHT WIND COULD KEEP THAT FROM OCCURRING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 06/19/14
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
STILL EXPECTING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THIS WEEKEND AND WILL LEAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE COULD LEAD TO DOWNPOURS OUT OF ANY
SHOWER OR STORM. THINK RAIN TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL MOSTLY JUST
PRIME THE GROUND FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED
ISSUES TODAY AS WELL.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-026>032-036>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...MZ
HYDROLOGY...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
212 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A
SEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD YIELD A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 210 AM...I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO FINE TUNE FOG
DENSITY...PLACEMENT...AND TIMING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL FEATURE DECREASE SKY COVER AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
EVENING UPDATE...EXPECT REMNANT CONV CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. ALREADY SEEING TEMPS BELOW THE FCST CURVE
ACROSS THE ERN UPSTATE DUE TO DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE 00Z
NAM12_BC AND LAMP GUIDANCE BOTH INDICATE COOLER MIN TEMPS BY A
COUPLE DEGREES THAN THE GOING FCST WHICH MAKES SENSE...SO THIS WAS
WEIGHTED HIGHLY INTO FCST LOWS. COULD SEE SOME LOW DENSITY FG
DEVELOP AFT 09Z ACROSS THE NC MTN VALLEYS...THE FTHILLS...AND NRN
UPSTATE WHERE AREAS OF PRECIP HAS CREATED MOIST SOIL FLUX CONDS.
730 PM EDT UPDATE...A FEW LINGERING -SHRA/TSTMS ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF
THE CWFA WITH A DIMINISHING TREND AS INSTABILITY WANES AND ATMOS
REMAINS NEGLIGIBLY FORCED ALOFT. A COUPLE TSTMS MAY PUSH INTO THE
SMOKIES...BUT NOTHING STRONG OR SEVERE WILL DEVELOP. THERE IS A GOOD
AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CI WHICH WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. CUT
BACK HR/LY TEMPS A BIT ACROSS MOST LOCALES TO ACCOUNT FOR REDUCED
HEATING AND POPS WERE ADJ FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
430 PM EDT UPDATE...SEVERE STORMS ARE BUILDING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
FROM THE NW NC PIEDMONT SW INTO THE ERN UPSTATE. NOT MUCH STORM
MOTION WITH THESE STORMS AND SVR WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN A HUGE
THREAT...HOWEVER A LOCALIZED WET DOWNBURST IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AS THE STORMS NEAR AN AREA OF HIGHER DCAPE. LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
AS OF 200 PM...CONVECTION IS BLOSSOMING MORE READILY THAN YESTERDAY
ACRS THE MTNS. I UPDATED THE POP TO TRY TO MATCH TRENDS. MOST OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN LOOKS TO GET WORKED OVER BY THE CONVECTION BY SUNSET.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON HOW MUCH WILL DEVELOP ACRS THE
PIEDMONT. STORM MOTION IS VERY SLOW...AND CELLS HAVE GENERALLY
WEAKENED SO FAR AS THEY TRY TO ROLL OFF THE ESCARPMENT.
HOWEVER...THE VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A CUMULUS FIELD GETTING MORE
ROBUST...WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLD STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF CHARLOTTE.
THE 15Z-16Z HRRR RUNS ARE SHOWING A CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING
SOUTH CHARLOTTE...WITH OUTFLOW FANNING OUT AND TRIGGERING NEW CELLS
ACRS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT LATE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. THE HRRR
TENDS TO BE OVERDONE...BUT IT DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL. SO I DID
INCREASE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT...BUT STILL GENERALLY
SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...IT LOOKS LIKE
CELLS ARE TOPPING OUT JUST SHORT OF OBJECTIVE CRITERIA SO FAR. LAPS
CAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS 3000-4000 J/KG ACRS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT. SO I
THINK THERE WILL BE A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS...WITH QUARTER-SIZE
HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.
TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHUD WANE QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. SIMILAR TO
LAST COUPLE NIGHTS...CLOUDS SHUD DISSIPATE AND WINDS REMAIN
CALM/LIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME VLY FOG IN THE NC MTNS. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S MTNS AND UPR 60S TO LWR 70S PIEDMONT.
THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES...HELPING
WEAKEN THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE ATOP THE CWFA. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE SHOWS
ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE ENVIRONMENT FOR OUR AREA. SO EXPECT
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH SCT-NUM AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE MTNS AND
ISOLD-SCT IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GA
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN FROM THE EAST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH SETS UP OFF THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH
CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT
NEAR THE SC BORDER ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM IS SLIGHT FARTHER
NORTH. IN ANY EVENT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS BOUNDARY. MODEL SOUNDING SHOW A BIT MORE
SHEAR BY THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS MODEST. ALTHOUGH
STEERING FLOW IS BETTER THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...MOVING CELLS
ALONG...SOME CONCERN EXISTS FOR REPEAT CELLS TRAINING EAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH SO ALONG INTERSTATE 40 WHERE
CLOUD COVER WILL BE BEST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z
ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST AND BROAD UPPER
TROFFING TO OUR NE. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT EARLY IN
THE PERIOD BEFORE ANOTHER...DEEPER UPPER TROF DIGS DOWN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH THE TROF AXIS TO OUR NORTH BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE. THE LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER A FAIR AMOUNT WRT THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER TROF WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A MORE AMPLIFIED AND
COHERENT SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP THE
TROF 1 TO 2 DAYS EARLIER AND KEEPS IT FARTHER NORTH AS IT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. DIURNAL POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT ON BOTH MON AND TUES
NEXT WEEK TO REFLECT GENERALLY MORE MOIST GUIDANCE. OTHER THAN
THAT...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SENSIBLE FCST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKY COVER WITH LIGHT SW WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TERMINAL THROUGH SUNRISE. AREAS WITHIN THE VICINITY HAD
HEAVY RAIN YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST. VIS ACROSS THE
TERMINAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM THROUGH SUNRISE...AREAS OF FOG
IS ANTICIPATED OVER WET GROUND. THIS AFTERNOON...THE CENTER OF THE
H5 RIDGE WILL SHIFT SW...RESULTING IN SLIGHT HEIGHT FALL ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MODERATE CAPE
WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK S/W
MAY RIPPLE OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR
TSRA APPEARS A BIT GREATER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY. I
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE CONVECTION WITH A PROB30 FROM 20-24Z. WINDS MAY
FAVOR A WNW DIRECTION BY 15Z...REMAINING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE 6Z TAF PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...MOST TERMINALS WILL SEE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG
AROUND DAWN. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE FOG DENSITY AND TIMING WITH EITHER
FM OR TEMPO GROUPS. THE COMBINATION MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE
AFTER APPROACH OF H5 S/W SHOULD YIELD SCT SHRA/TSRA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE CONVECTION WITH A PROB30 FROM
20-24Z...AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER AT KAVL AND KHKY. WINDS MAY FAVOR A
WNW DIRECTION BY 15Z...REMAINING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 6Z TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE MTNS. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR DURING TSRA AND
ALSO IN THE MTN VALLEYS EACH MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY
FORM OVER AREAS OF RECENT RAINFALL.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 87% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 91% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STAARMANN
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
443 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AN ANALYSIS OF THE 00Z UPPER AIR SURFACES REVEALED A SOUTH-TO-
NORTH 200 AND 300 MB RIDGE OVER SE TX...AND A WEAK 500 MB HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NC TO THE UPPER TX COAST. THERE WAS
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB DUE TO THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE CAROLINAS.
THE FORECAST MODELS BUILD THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER SE TX THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK BEFORE THEN DIGGING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MODEL OUTPUT AND GUIDANCE BOTH FORECAST LESS CHANCES FOR RAIN
TODAY THAN WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP
LESS CAPE AND LOWER PW/S...WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR AND TEXAS
TECH MODELS REFLECTING THIS BY FORECASTING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THE SEA BREEZE MAY
FIGURE MORE PROMINENTLY. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL GO WITH 10 PERCENT
CHANCES NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING AND 20 PERCENT INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SAME SCENARIO LOOKS TO OCCUR ON
FRIDAY...ALBEIT WITH ONLY 10 PERCENT CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE INLAND AREAS.
WITH THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD...BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THE
GFS AND ECWMF FORECAST A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE TO MOVE AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS FEATURE MAY WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE UPPER
TX COAST AND PROVIDE A MORE MOIST AIRMASS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. BOTH MODELS ALSO DEVELOP AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SE TX DURING
THE EARLY AND MID WEEK PERIOD. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
TIMING...WILL GO WITH ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
WINDS OFF THE COAST ARE STILL STRONG ENOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH SPEED CONVERGENCE LATER IN THE MORNING TO SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS. OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CIGS WITH MAY BE A COUPLE HRS OF
MVFR IN THE MORNING HRS. CEILINGS SHOULD THEN LIFT FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS FROM THE SE. LOOK FOR THE
SAME CONDITIONS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THUR BUT WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE LESS.
39
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS DECREASING LATER IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED IN OFFSHORE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE CLOSER TO
THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE WINDS. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS WITH
2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 92 74 93 74 94 / 20 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 75 92 75 94 / 20 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 80 89 80 88 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
425 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
FORECAST TIME WAS SPENT ON IMMEDIATE CONVECTION AND FLOODING
ISSUES...AND THEN THE EVOLUTION AND THREATS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
ONGOING CONVECTION HAS BEEN REALLY HITTING NORTHEAST IOWA HARD
WITH HEAVY RAIN IN A NEARLY STAGNANT BAND FROM CRESCO TO NEAR
POSTVILLE. RADAR ESTIMATES ARE 5-7 INCHES IN THAT AREA WITH LEGACY
AND DUAL POL...AND IF WE ARE CONSERVATIVE...AT LEAST 4 INCHES HAS
FALLEN ON THAT BAND. THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE THE COMPLEX SLOWLY
SHIFTING SOUTH AS THE COLD POOL DEEPENS. ANOTHER COMPLEX IN
CENTRAL MN IN NOW CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH IS LIFTING NORTHEAST
TIED TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THAT COMPLEX WILL CLIP THE NORTHWEST MOST
FORECAST AREA WITH STORMS THIS MORNING...BUT THE MAIN STORY IS
NORTHEAST IOWA.
LATEST RAP TRENDS ARE STEADY AND LEND CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL FOCUS NORTHWARD INTO NRN MN AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD
IL/I-80 AS SUNRISE APPROACHES. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLD
POOL DEEPENING SHOULD MOVE THE CONVECTION OUT OF NORTHEAST IA AND
SOUTHWEST WI AS THE EARLY MORNING PROGRESSES. 1000 J/KG MUCAPE
LINE PER SPC ANALYSIS IS NOW FROM MINNEAPOLIS TO CHICAGO AND SOUTH
WITH STILL SOME 2000J/KG VALUES TOWARD KALO IN NORTHEAST IOWA. SO
PLENTY OF ENERGY FOR RAINFALL MAKERS.
THE DAYTIME HOURS SEEM TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO PAST DAYS WHERE
CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...ONLY TO BUILD CAPE AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY. THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND SHIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY LYING UP AGAIN NEAR A KAEL-KDBQ LINE BY
EVENING. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE CONVECTING THE THE WARM
FRONT BUT BELIEVE THE CAP SHOULD HOLD AND ALLOW CAPE TO BUILD WITH
NO REAL FORCING ON THAT BOUNDARY EXCEPT WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WYOMING
THAT WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PUSH THE
COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...A SLOWER
PROGRESSION THAN EARLIER FORECASTS. THE LATEST 19.05 AND 19.06
HRRR RUNS HAVE COME TO EXACTLY WHAT OUR VISUALIZATION IS FOR THE
LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A BREAK...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO 2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND FORMING A LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY THIS EVENING.
WIND SHEAR WITH THIS CONVECTION IS ONLY IN THE 0-3KM LAYER AND
WEAK TO MODERATE...MAYBE 20-25 KTS. WITH THE FRONTAL FORCING
FAVORING A LINE OF CONVECTION AND 0-3KM SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTED
WEST-EAST...BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND WIND DAMAGE ARE THREAT THAT
IS FAVORED. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT WITH MAIN WIND
THREAT COVERAGE WEST OF MISS RIVER. WOULD THINK THAT WI STILL HAS
A CHANCE AT DAMAGING WINDS...BUT LESS IN COVERAGE. THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE TO THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE SOME LIMIT TO THE RAINFALL BUT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.5 INCHES AND THE SAME AIR MASS AS
PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH GOOD INSTABILITY BUILDING TODAY...1-2 INCHES
OF RAIN COULD AFFECT MOST AREAS. ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM WOULD BE
IF THE WARM FRONT DOES CONVECT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER AND
FORCING INCREASES...AS THAT WOULD PROVIDE A LONGER DURATION RAIN
CHANCE NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF WARM FRONT. THUS...HAVE EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING /SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION/.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HERE IS THE GOOD NEWS SECTION FOR THOSE THAT HAVE ENDURED
FLOODING. FRIDAY WILL BE A DRYING DAY WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AIR MASS OF 1.8 INCHES SHIFTING EAST POST-FRONTALLY...AND
SOMEWHAT LOWER VALUES OF 1.25 INCHES COMING INTO THE AREA /ABOUT
125-150 PERCENT NORMAL/. CONVECTIVE CHANCES STILL ARE AROUND WITH
WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MONDAY. OVERALL...WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THIS
BETTER FRIDAY AFTER THIS HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER MOVES THROUGH. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PERIOD...AND RAINFALL COULD STILL BE
MODERATE IN RATE...BUT IT SEEMS LESS ORGANIZED EXCEPT FOR MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THESE DAYS APPEAR TO BE DRY AND TEMPERATURES PRETTY NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH TAF
SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...AND THEN BETWEEN 19.10Z AND
19.13Z THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET VEERS AWAY FROM THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF
BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
HAVE DECIDED TO EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO 7 AM FRIDAY.
MANY AREA SOILS ARE SATURATED FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. LOOKS LIKE ANYWHERE FROM 3-7 INCHES OF
RAIN...POSSIBLY HIGHER WHEN THE TOTALS COME IN THIS MORNING...HAS FALLEN
SINCE SUNDAY IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. WITH A DELAY OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO MORE ON PEAK HEATING THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED TONIGHT...DECIDED TO EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. DO THINK TONIGHTS LINE OF STORMS WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE BUT STILL COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES VERY
RAPIDLY AND THOSE AREAS THAT ARE VULNERABLE WILL SEE FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL. THERE MAY ALSO BE EXISTING AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS IN
PLACE FROM CURRENT RAINFALL IMPACTS. KIND OF A MESS FROM A
SERVICE/PRODUCT STANDPOINT.
RIVERS IN NORTHEAST IOWA WILL NEED AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD WARNINGS
IT APPEARS. WE WILL ASSESS THIS IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT IT
APPEARS THE UPPER IOWA AND TURKEY RIVERS WILL NEED WARNINGS. THE
TURKEY BASIN TOOK A BIG HIT TO THE HEADWATERS...AND AM HOPING THE
CURRENT RAINS KEEP MOVING SOUTH TO AVOID A TOTAL BASIN POUNDING
AND MORE MODERATE LEVEL FLOODING. THE YELLOW RIVER NEAR POSTVILLE
WAS ABOUT 6 FEET OVER FLOOD STAGE AND ALTHOUGH WE DONT ISSUE
FORECASTS THERE...IT WILL PROBABLY RISE ANOTHER 2-3 FEET TO NEAR
18. THAT IS A STEEP RIVER IN THAT AREA AND THIS IS DANGEROUS
FLOODING...BUT IT IS ALSO MAINLY PASTURE LAND.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WIZ032>034-041>044-
053>055-061.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1231 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ERUPTING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE 12C
700 MB CAP AND IN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS. IN ADDITION A 30 TO 40 KNOT 850 MB JET IS SURGING
INTO THIS AREA. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE DEEP MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE HAS DRAMATICALLY INCREASED FROM SIOUX FALLS INTO
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN
1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS GREATHER THAN 4 KM...HEAVY
RAIN WHICH WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. HOWEVER THE RAP ANALYSIS DOES SUGGEST THAT THE 0-6 KM
SHEAR WILL BECOME SUPERCELLULAR BETWEEN NOW AND 1 AM...THIS COULD
RESULT IN POCKETS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LATEST
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE LATEST 18.12Z GFS/NAM INDICATE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE TO INCREASE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SHIFT THE NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
CONVERGENCE INTO FORECAST AREA BY 06Z THURSDAY. WITH SUBTLE WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...EXPECT ANOTHER MCS TO FORM AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER 03-06Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOCATION
OF WHERE THE MCS WILL FORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT WHERE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL OVER FORECAST AREA. THE 18.12Z
GFS/NAM AND 15Z RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
1.5-2 INCHES ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH EXTENDING
UP TO 4KM PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER FORECAST AREA WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND PRODUCE LOCAL HEAVY RAIN. THE 18.12Z
GFS/NAM SUGGEST WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND TRACK ACROSS FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NEXT CONCERN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE 18.12Z
GFS/NAM INDICATE MAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AND 0-3KM SHEAR IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOTS RANGE ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
THE MODELS SUGGEST ALL SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER...AS THE 0-6KM SHEAR
SHOWS ABOUT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. AT THIS TIME...LOOKING AT DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN
THREATS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 18.12Z GFS/NAM SHOW WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THE FLOW WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH EACH IMPULSE...SHOULD ALLOW THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 18.12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARE INDICATED BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
HAVE IMPACTS ON TIMING OF MOISTURE RETURN/PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT CONCERN ARE
TEMPERATURES FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE 18.12Z GFS/ECMWF
DIFFERING SLIGHTLY ON STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...THE 18.12Z GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW COOL
AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE 18.12Z ECMWF
ADVECTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THE 18.12Z GFS.
THE 18.12Z ECMWF SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUS 10 TO PLUS 12
DEGREES CELSIUS OVER FORECAST AREA...COMPARED TO PLUS 12 TO PLUS
14 DEGREES CELSIUS 850MB TEMPERATURES BY THE 18.12Z GFS.
TEMPERATURES OVER FORECAST AREA BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH TAF
SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...AND THEN BETWEEN 19.10Z AND
19.13Z THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET VEERS AWAY FROM THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF
BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5
TO 2 INCH RANGE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS UP TO 4 KM. THE COMBINATION
OF ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
ALSO...DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...THE
CEDAR...TREMPEALEAU AND BLACK RIVERS HAVE RISEN OR ARE FORECASTED
TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
PORTIONS OF THESE RIVERS. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR
EXACT FORECAST DETAILS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ032>034-
041>044-053>055-061.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...DTJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
728 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND TODAY AND WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS THE
AREA...PASSING THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY AS A WEAK WAVE
OF LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS ALONG IT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A WET START TO THE DAY WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA.
HAVE UPDATED POPS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH CURRENT RADAR
IMAGERY/TRENDS. EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...KEEPING NYC/LI MOSTLY DRY...BUT HAS SINCE
LOST ITS WAY. HOWEVER IT DOES HINT AT A BREAK IN THE ACTION FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...BEFORE THE SECOND ROUND OVER WESTERN PA
MOVES IN. NEW POPS REFLECT THIS THINKING. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY T/TD/WINDS AND SKY BASED ON LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS.
SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM N TO S
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO BE NUDGED SOUTHWARD BY
HIGH PRES NOSING IN TO THE NE FROM HUDSON BAY. SHOULD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MIXING ONLY TO AROUND H95 WHICH SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO A W/NW
FLOW. METRO NY/NJ WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...AROUND 80.
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SEABREEZES AT BAY FOR THE MOST
PART. SE CT AND SOUTHERN BROOKLYN/QUEENS ARE THE TWO AREAS THAT
HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE TO BREEZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
BENIGN WEATHER THEN PREVAILS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRES IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL
RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. 50S WITH A FEW
ISOLD UPPER 40 DEGREE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN RURAL LOCATIONS...AND
LOW TO MID 60S IN THE URBAN AND SUBURBAN COUNTIES OF NYC.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR FRI. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE HIGHER...TO AROUND
H85...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAYTIME. A W/NW FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN CAUSE HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT SITTING TO OUR SOUTH.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
HIGH IS OVERHEAD THE AREA. ECMWF CONTINUES TO HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS
ON SATURDAY BUT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE RELATIVELY DRY...WILL CONTINUE
THE DRY FORECAST. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL MOSTLY DUE TO
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE SOUTH FOR SAT AND SUN.
FEWER CLOUDS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN
CONTROL WITH A DRY FORECAST. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE INTRODUCED BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN.
THERE IS A CHANCE TUESDAY COULD REMAIN DRY. CHANCE POPS REMAIN FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
MUCH COOLER TEMPS BUILD IN STARTING ON SATURDAY THANKS TO LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH. NEAR NORMAL AND
SIMILAR TEMPS SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
FOR HIGHS AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR LOWS. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH THESE VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT.
PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN 12-14Z WILL IMPACT
MAINLY NORTHERN TERMINALS...THEN 14-18Z MAINLY SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
COULD GET A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTION.
CURRENTLY ASSESS PROBABILITY OF THUNDER AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL
TODAY AT 20 PERCENT OR LESS...SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS.
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS GIVE WAY TO NE FLOW THIS MORNING. WINDS BACK TO THE N-NW BY
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT AT KGON WHERE SEABREEZE SHOULD MAKE MORE W.
COULD ALSO SEE SEABREEZE AT KJFK LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND
CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS.
START/END TIME OF SHRA COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. START/END TIME OF SHRA COULD BE OFF
+/- 1-2 HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED
COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. START/END TIME OF SHRA COULD BE OFF
+/- 1-2 HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND
CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS.
START/END TIME OF SHRA COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND
SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS. END TIME OF SHRA COULD BE OFF
+/- 1-2 HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING END OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND
CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED COULD BE OFF +/- 2-3 HOURS.
START/END TIME OF SHRA COULD BE OFF +/- 1-2 HOURS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE FRIDAY-MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON WITH A WEAK PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KT...WITH
SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT ON THE OCEAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE QPF IS EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 1/10 TO 1/4 OF AN
INCH TODAY. NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
NO RAINFALL IS THEN EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...24/LN
NEAR TERM...24
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...MALOIT
MARINE...24/LN
HYDROLOGY...24/LN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1001 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
.UPDATE...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO OUR CURRENT FORECAST OTHER THAN ADJUSTING
POPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH OFF THE EAST CENTRAL COAST AND VERY WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH
CENTERED NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW THE
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO A WEAK CLOSED CIRCULATION THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS A DEEP MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWAT AT 1.77
INCHES AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW AT 5 TO 7 MPH. SO IT
APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SLOW MOVING CELLS.
IT DOES NOT NECESSARILY APPEAR ACCORDING TO THE SOUNDING THAT
THERE IS MUCH OF A WIND THREAT BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE HWO AT THIS TIME. THE ONLY
OTHER CHANGES POSSIBLE WITH LATER TRENDS MIGHT BE TO ADJUST
AFTERNOON POPS CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST WITH THE SLOW SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW. THE LATEST HRRR IS ONLY SHOWING ERRATIC DEVELOPMENT
BUT DOES FAVOR THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014/
AVIATION...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE
EAST COAST BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
SOUTHEAST AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST AT KAPF. RAIN COULD CONTINUE NEAR
KPBI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE LOW REMAINS NEARBY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014/
SHORT TERM...
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS ALSO TRYING TO DEVELOP AS WELL. THIS
WILL AIDE IN CONVERGENCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE CELLS TO DEVELOP
TODAY. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE MBE VECTORS AT ONLY
3-6KTS. SINCE THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BE WEAK, THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SLOW MOVING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING. COMPARED TO A FEW DAYS AGO, 500 MB
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER, AND THE
FREEZING LEVEL IS SLOWLY RISING, NOW BACK OVER 14KFT, MAKING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL TODAY LOWER. LOOKING AT THE NCAPE, WHICH WAS
LESS THAN .1 ON LAST EVENING SOUNDINGS, AND ALSO ON TODAYS MODEL
NAM SOUNDINGS, WILL EXPECT THE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL TO BE LOWER.
WITH A NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE, ANY DOWNDRAFTS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE WET. AS WITH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, THERE IS STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG DOWNBURSTS OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH. SO,
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING STILL
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER IN
THE EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE COME
STRONG AGAIN ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LONG TERM...
THE LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL REMAIN NEARBY OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THEN START TO
PULL AWAY BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME MOISTURE STILL REMAINING IN PLACE, THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. MARINE CONDITIONS WITHIN CONVECTION COULD BECOME ROUGH
AT TIMES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 72 89 74 / 50 30 50 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 75 89 76 / 50 30 40 30
MIAMI 87 74 90 75 / 50 30 50 30
NAPLES 87 72 88 73 / 50 30 40 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
923 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
311 AM CDT
FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME MOVEMENT IN THE PATTERN AS WELL AS MORE
COHERENT FEATURES TO SERVE AS FORCING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTION.
THIS EQUATES TO BETTER FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BIG UPPER LOW STILL
SPINNING TO THE WEST THOUGH IT HAS MOVED NORTHEASTWARD AND IS
CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ALBERTA AND SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. ITS
NORTHWARD SHIFT HAS ALLOWED FOR THE RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF IT TO SHARPEN
OVER THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER NORTHEAST
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW IS OVER QUEBEC AND EASTERN ONTARIO AFTER
SETTLING SOUTHWARD. THIS LEAVES THE LOCAL AREA UNDERNEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE WITH NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE WAVES HELPING TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT
THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHED SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TO JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA AND INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
EARLY MORNING...LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST IOWA TO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
TO INDIANA. LEE/OGLE COUNTIES CONTINUE TO SEE NEARLY STATIONARY
CONVECTION OVER THEIR WESTERN PORTIONS WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF UP TO
10 INCHES AS OF 3 AM. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO REGENERATE AND WILL
LIKELY DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE FOCUS
MAY BE SHIFTING JUST TO THE WEST BUT TI DOES APPEAR THAT IT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS LEE/OGLE FOR A FEW HOURS YET. ANOTHER AREA OF
STORMS OVER FAR NORTHEAST IOWA HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF LOOSE
ORGANIZATION AS A PROGRESSIVE COMPLEX AS IT MOVES OR PROPAGATES
SOUTHWARD...THOUGH IT IS AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS OUT FROM REACHING
THE CURRENT CONVECTION. OTHERWISE MORE SCATTERED STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST IL THROUGH
DAYBREAK.
REST OF TODAY...THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD WHILE THE EASTERN CANADA HIGH PUSHES
SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE REGION THOUGH IT
SHOULD LOSE SOME OF ITS FOCUS. CURRENT WARM ADVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND WEAKENING
LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS. CURRENT ONGOING SLOW MOVING OR STATIONARY
CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN THROUGH MID MORNING AS THIS FORCING
WEAKENS. HOWEVER...SOME OVERRUNNING/WARM ASCENT WILL STILL BE
OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT SO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON
CHANCES LOOK LOW OVERALL BUT WEST AND SOUTHWEST AREAS WILL RETAIN
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH AROUND 1.9 INCHES AND STORM
MOVEMENT WILL PROBABLY STILL BE SLOW GIVEN THE WEAKENING UPPER FLOW
UNDER THE RIDGE...SO MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN BUT MAY BE
RATHER ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE EAST TO
NORTHEAST SO COOLER LAKE AIR WILL BE PUSHING INLAND. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AT THE LAKEFRONT THEN RISE INTO THE 70S
WORKING INLAND...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA...THOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP THINGS A LITTLE COOLER. IN
ADDITION...WITH MOIST DEWPOINTS FROM MICHIGAN SPREADING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE LAKE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND IT MAY CREEP INLAND A SHORT
DISTANCE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT LATEST OBS/WEB CAMS SHOW MINIMAL IF
ANY INLAND PUSH THUS FAR. WILL MENTION FOG NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE FOR TODAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AND LIFT INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA BY
EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BUT A
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH EASTWARD AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT REACHING THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT THAT
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LATER THIS
EVENING OR TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS ASCENT INCREASES...WITH THE
FRONT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
LATER FRIDAY LEADING TO A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR BUT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO REMAIN HIGH...WITH ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH BUT DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE BY EVENING. WILL NEED TO BETTER EVALUATE THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AREAS BUT THE
PRECIP TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND COVERAGE MAY
NOT BE SOLID. WESTERN AREAS ALONG THE I-39 CORRIDOR MAY NEED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT IF CONVECTION LOOKS MORE ROBUST AND MOVEMENT
SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY THINKING.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...A MUCH MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK RIDGING WILL BE
OVERHEAD. THE FORMERLY LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKEN OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE OFF THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST WHICH WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE AND
WORKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE LOCAL AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN
HOW THE UPPER FLOW EVOLVES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WAVE TRACKS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND TRIES TO PHASE WITH A STRONGER TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES...IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE PATTERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACTIVE WITH PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. INITIALLY IT WILL BE DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE ZONAL FLOW...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
TROUGH DRIVING PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW IT
EVOLVES. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL FOR COOLER AIR TO WORK INTO
THE REGION BY MID WEEK AS A LARGER SCALE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE
MIDWEST AND POINTS EAST.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* IFR CIGS THIS MORNING LIFTING TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
* PATCHY FOG THROUGH LATE MORNING.
* PERIODIC CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES WEST TO EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. SATELLITE AND LIGHTENING TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS WEAKENING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS THOUGH MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS IOWA. IT APPEARS THAT THE
CHICAGO TERMINALS MAY BE OUT OF THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WHILE RFD WILL SEE
THE THREAT CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
COLD POOL/OUTFLOW WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO RECOVER. IN ADDITION...
BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL HELP SUPPRESS GROWTH ACROSS THE
AREA. APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA WILL BE ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS ALONG THE OUTFLOW
REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS EVENING THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST WITH MODELS ADVERTISING THE TAIL END OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
KICK OFF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH EXACT
LOCATION REMAINS IN QUESTION.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS/TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH FOG TRENDS THIS MORNING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER THE REST OF THE MORNING. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING LATE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR WITH PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
304 AM CDT
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...THE SAG BACK SOUTH AGAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE PRESSURE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
630 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday
Unsettled weather pattern expected through early next work week
with frontal boundary nearby along with disturbance digging into
the upper level ridge over the southeast states. Very warm and
humid tropical air mass to linger through Monday with cooler temps
by middle of next week along with lower humidity levels.
Showers and thunderstorms have mainly been staying north of
central IL so far tonight over northern parts of IL/IN with just
very isolated convection from I-74 north to I-80. 1006 mb low
pressure over east central SD has warm front over central IA into
northern IL north of I-74 but south of I-80 nearing Lacon. Muggy
temps in the 70s over much of central IL in warm sector while
Lacon and Pontiac north of front were cooler 68F. Despite deep
tropical moisture in place and unstable air mass, a weakening low
level jet and lack of an upper level disturbance along with warm
front lifting north of central IL has kept most of central IL dry
during the night. RAP and HRRR models show isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop over central IL during the
day mainly after 15Z/10 am and convection could push frontal
boundary back south of I-74. Have higher pops as day progresses
with highest pops over IL river valley and lowest in southeast IL
but still chance pops there this afternoon. SPC keeps slight risk
NW of IL over IA though there is a 5% risk of damaging winds and
large hail this afternoon and evening due to very unstable air mass
with CAPES peaking from 2-3k j/kg this afternoon. Another very
warm and humid day with highs in the upper 80s to around 90F.
Muggy dew points in the lower 70s to give afternoon heat indices
peaking in mid to upper 90s with highest readings in southeast IL.
Not quite as hot as past two days due to more cloud cover and
convection around this afternoon.
Have likely chances of showers and thunderstorms northern areas
tonight with chance pops south of I-72. Most models show some qpf
tonight with low level jet better than this past night though not
terribly strong over central IL. Also have a short wave moving
east across IL so feel more confident with higher pops tonight and
shifting into eastern IL on Friday. Highs in the upper 80s Friday
with southeast IL near 90F and muggy dew points in the lower 70s
still. SPC does not have a slight risk over IL Friday but can not
rule out an isolate strong storm over especially over eastern IL
Friday afternoon. Lingering 20-30% chance of convection Friday
evening south of I-72 as frontal boundary pushes SE of central IL.
Then looks like a break in convection chances overnight Friday
night into Sat. Very warm again Sat with highs in the upper 80s to
near 90F and dew points holding around 70F.
LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday
Weak high pressure over the great lakes region Saturday to shift
east Saturday night and Sunday with southerly tropical flow
reestablished over IL and returning chances of showers and
thunderstorms overnight Saturday night and Sunday though less of a
chance over eastern/SE IL closer to retreating ridge. Best chances
of convection appears to be Monday afternoon over IL river valley
and over rest of central/SE IL Monday night and Tue as stronger
upper level trof digs over the Midwest and cold front track SE
through IL. Drier air finally returns later Wed into Thu along
with cooler temperatures as weak high pressure settles into IL.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 630 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2014
Warm front currently draped over KPIA/KBMI with variable winds
underneath, which will become more southwest over the next couple
hours as the front lifts northward a bit.
Main forecast challenge will remain with timing of convection.
With the pop-up nature of the storms in this environment, it is
challenging to narrow down VCTS-free periods, but kept the TAF
sites dry through 15Z and also for a few-hour period this evening.
Similarly, pinning down periods with MVFR or potentially IFR
visibilities due to brief downpours is also tricky. Based on the
HRRR model, have tried to time such afternoon occurrences at
KSPI/KPIA/KBMI, but will hold off further east for now.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1103 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
MORNING CONVECTION HAS LAID OUT SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BULK OF
CONVECTION SO FAR THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THESE
BOUNDARIES. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OR DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO RIDE
ACROSS THE REGION DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER MIDWEST RIDGING.
AXIS APPEARS TO BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY FROM ABOUT CVG TO PIT...AND NE
FROM THERE. SLIGHT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN COMBINATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TO ACT AS TRIGGERS SHOULD BE ALL IT TAKES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION TO FIRE. FOCUS OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY THOUGH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY
SHOULD ANY OUTFLOWS REACH THAT FAR SOUTH. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD DISPLAY SOME STRONG CHARACTERISTICS AND CAN NOT RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. HWO APPEARS TO HANDLE THE THREAT
ADEQUATELY. COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY RAINERS...ESPECIALLY AS WE GET
INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. PWATS ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGHS
AND STORM MOTION LOOKS LOW ENOUGH...5-10KTS. FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY HIGH AROUND 14-15K AS WELL. SO WARM WATER PROCESSES COULD
BE A FACTOR AS WELL.
UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH LATEST THOUGHTS AND TO REFLECT LATEST
TRENDS IN CONVECTION IN OUR NORTH. TWEAKED HIGHS A BIT...BUT MAY
BRING THEM DOWN A BIT MORE IN THE NORTH WITH NEXT UPDATE TO REFLECT
ONGOING CONVECTION. CONCENTRATED POPS IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
OUR CWA. EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT BOUNDARIES COULD TRACK A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. HRRR HINTS AT THIS POSSIBILITY AS
WELL. IN GENERAL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SCATTERED BUT EFFECTIVE POPS MAY
BE HIGHER...CLOSER TO LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE
WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
AND WITH THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FORMATION AND STORM EVOLUTION
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS WAS FOR A SERIES OF
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS TO MOVE OUT OF INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THAT BEING SAID...A
COMBINATION OF THE LATEST GFS AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT WAS USED TO
FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE INITIAL GROUP OF STORMS
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CLIP OUR COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 EARLY
TODAY. AFTER THAT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG IT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS
BOUNDARY AND WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH WARM...MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR THAT
IS ALREADY IN PLACE TO SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER A DROP OFF IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...THE
FRONT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS
STRONG LIFT ALONG THE FRONT BEGINS TO OCCUR. THE ROUNDS OF STORMS WE
SEE TODAY AND FRIDAY COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TODAY TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ONLY BE DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND A DEEP CLOSED LOW
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST INTO AND POSSIBLY SOUTH OF THE CWA TO END THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL OFFER A SLIGHT REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT HEAT...ALTHOUGH THE
POST FRONTAL AIRMASS SHOULD OFFER SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS TO END
THE WEEKEND. THIS REPRIEVE SHOULD BE BRIEF...HOWEVER.
THE MID LEVEL WAVE WORKING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY SHOULD COMBINE WITH
THE SAGGING BOUNDARY TO BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THE 0Z GFS IS LIKELY SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK LEADING TO THE HIGH GFS QPF NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY EARLY
IN THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SATURDAY. PW IS EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO NEAR 1.8 INCHES...OR GREATER THAN THE 75TH PERCENTILE AND
STEERING WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING...SO LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER 2 INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
WHICH MIGHT LEAD TO SOME HYDRO ISSUES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO AND PLACEMENT IS LOW AND WE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING/HEIGHT RISES SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTION
BECOMING MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...BUT
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND
RETURN LOW SHOULD ALREADY BE RETURNING A MORE HUMID AIRMASS NORTH IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. WITH THIS FROM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT....THOUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
MOST FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICALLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES THROUGH 14Z
TO 15Z...BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF JKL AND SJS AND THE OTHER TAF
SITES. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND A PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
REDEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS BETWEEN 15 AND 17Z TODAY.
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR...AFFECTING JKL AND SJS MOSTLY DURING THE TAF
PERIOD. LOZ AND SME WILL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE PERIOD BEGINNING AROUND 16Z TODAY. CIGS OF 3.5 TO 4K WILL
BE COMMON WITH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT AFFECT THE TAF SITES
TODAY...AND ANY DIRECT HIT WILL LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
945 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 941 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2014
Just did a minor update primarily to the PoPs and sky cover to
include HRRR model guidance (for PoPs) as it seems to have a good
handle on where the focus of convection will be. We`ll have a bit of
a lull through much of the rest of this morning but look for
scattered thunderstorms across much of the forecast area this
afternoon as the sun heats the surface up. The greatest coverage
should be in southern Indiana and northern Kentucky into the
Bluegrass region.
Issued at 635 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2014
A few showers have popped up this morning over the northern
Bluegrass. These showers have developed along the remnants of the
outflow boundary from last night`s convection. Expect to continue to
see storm development along this boundary today. Just made some
small changes to the pops this morning and trended the forecast
toward current observations.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2014
The storms that prompted the Severe Thunderstorm Watch earlier have
significantly weakened this morning. In addition, these storms look
to stay north of the forecast area. Thus, the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch has been dropped. For early this morning, it is not out of the
question that a shower or possibly thunderstorm will pop up across
portions of north central KY, but they should be fairly isolated.
Through the remainder of the day, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop late this morning into the
afternoon hours as we warm up. The best chance for storms looks to
be across portions of southern IN and north central KY as the
boundary from tonight`s convection as well as a boundary from
convection yesterday evening sag southward across the region.
Further to the south and west, there will be less of a focusing
mechanism, but some storm development is certainly possible in the
unstable atmosphere this afternoon.
There may be a lull in activity this evening, though given the
multiple boundaries across the area and convection possibly moving
in from the west, a few showers or storms may hang around. On Friday
a weak cold front will approach the area from the northwest. Ahead
of this boundary, precipitable water values will rise to near 2
inches. Given plenty of instability, moisture, and the approaching
boundary, storm chances will be better on Friday than today. Given
the high PWAT values, these storms have the potential to produce
torrential rainfall.
As for temperatures, they will remain hot and muggy. Highs will be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s, though today will likely be a degree
or two cooler than yesterday and tomorrow should be a degree or two
cooler than today. Lows tomorrow morning will be in the lower 70s.
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2014
A weak surface low will cross the Ohio Valley Friday night/Saturday
morning along with some weak upper level vorticity and PWATs pooling
near two inches. So, will continue with scattered PoPs for Friday
night and Saturday.
Saturday night through Monday night moisture will decrease to near
normal for mid/late June and forcing at the surface and aloft will
be weak. Can`t rule out some spotty summertime convection but will
keep PoPs very low.
Will probably see highs mainly in the 80s over the weekend as upper
ridge flattens and 850 temps drop to around 17C. Temps may inch up
a tick or two on Monday as we get into southwest low level flow
ahead of a weak cool front extending from the Great Lakes to the Big
Bend. Monday will probably be the warmest day of the long term.
Tuesday and Tuesday night that weak front will push into the area
and give us our best chance of thunderstorms in the long term.
Winds could get a little gusty Tuesday afternoon...maybe in the
20-25 mph range.
Wednesday is a question mark as model solutions diverge
significantly. For now will lean more toward the Euro`s slower
passage of the weak front, as is typical for this time of yer, and
will continue with a small PoP in the forecast.
Afternoon highs should settle back into the 80s for Tuesday and
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 641 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2014
Showers have begun to pop up this morning northeast of LEX along a
boundary leftover from last night`s convection. Though some showers
have already developed, the best chance for storms to affect any of
the terminals still looks to be this afternoon. Therefore have kept
the VCTS to between 18-02Z. However, a shower or two before that is
not out of the question. Expect storms to diminish this evening and
thus have dried out the forecast after 00-02Z. Some light fog looks
possible at LEX and BWG tomorrow morning as moisture streams in
ahead of a cold front. Winds throughout the period will be out of the
SSW to SW.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........lg
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......13
Aviation.......EER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
713 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
ANOTHER ACTIVE NIGHT IS WINDING DOWN...AND FOR THE SECOND NIGHT IN A
ROW WE SAW SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS RESULT FROM
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY NIGHT WAS MANKATO...AND LAST NIGHT
IT WAS WOOD LAKE...WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW 6 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL...AND MUCH OF THAT CAME WITHIN THE FIRST 3 HOURS OF IT STARING
TO RAIN. UNFORTUNATELY...THE ATMOSPHERE THAT HELPED ALLOW THAT TO
HAPPEN WITH PWATS AOA 1.75" AND FREEZING LEVELS ABOVE 15K ARE STILL
IN PLACE AND WILL REMAIN SO UNTIL A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BACK OVER
ERN SODAK CLEARS THE AREA TONIGHT.
FOR THIS MORNING...THE RAP SHOWS THE LLJ BECOMING BIFURCATED...WITH
ONE SEGMENT SAGGING SE ACROSS IA TOWARD NRN IL...WHILE ANOTHER
SECTION WILL BE ANGLING FROM SRN MN BACK TOWARD ERN NODAK. YOU CAN
SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS LLJ SLIT OVER THE LAST HOUR ON REGIONAL
RADARS AS ACTIVITY HAS REALLY STARTED TO BECOME FOCUSED OVER NE IA.
THE SEGMENT OF THE LLJ DEVELOPING FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST IS
HELPING FORCE AN INTENSE LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY RACING NORTH
ACROSS ERN SODAK. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE MPX CWA IS THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS OVER ERN MN WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS WRN WI THIS
MORNING AS IT LOSES ITS LLJ FEED...WITH THE WRN LLJ SEGMENT
FOCUSING ACTIVITY INTO NW MN THIS MORNING. THIS WILL SEND US INTO
ANOTHER PRECIP BREAK PERIOD THAT WILL START BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS BREAK WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED. AS THE SODAK
FRONT WORKS INTO WRN MN THIS AFTERNOON...CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT
YET ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR A RWF/AXN LINE
BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z THAT WILL THEN WORK EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MOST CAMS SHOW THIS SCENARIO PLAYING OUT...BUT THE SPC AND
ARW WRFS SHOW VERY LITTLE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE FRONT.
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST WEIGHS HEAVILY ON THE CONVECTING
MAJORITY...YOU CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE MORE LIMITED
SOLUTIONS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION TONIGHT CAN OVERTURN THE
ATMOSPHERE. IF ENOUGH OVERTURNING OCCURS...THEN THOSE LIMITED
ACTIVITY SOLUTIONS MAY BE CORRECT. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF THE
MID LEVEL WARM AIR CAP...PREFER THE SOLUTIONS THAT SHOW ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THINKING THE THREAT...THOUGH STILL
THERE...WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ONE BIG
REASON IS THAT THE 5K TO 6K J/KG OF MLCAPE IN THE WARM SECTOR SEEN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A MUCH MORE MODEST 1K TO
2K J/KG TODAY. IN ADDITION...0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE RANGING FROM 35-40
KTS NEAR THE MN/SD BORDER /CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW/ TO LESS THAN 20
KTS OVER WRN WI. THE ONE THING THAT IS BETTER TODAY THAN WHAT WE SAW
YESTERDAY ARE THE DYNAMICS AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH APPROACHES
WRN MN BY 00Z WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70+ KT LLJ. MORE
BOUNDARY PARALLEL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON FAVORS A LINEAR CONVECTIVE
MODE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...AS THE SMALLER CAPES AND LINEAR MODE SHOULD BOTH HELP TO
SUPPRESS THE HAIL AND TORNADO THREATS /AS COMPARED TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS/.
THOUGH UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES...A FRONT LIKE THIS AFTERNOONS
WOULD NOT TYPICALLY GARNER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...THIS IS NOT A
TYPICAL SITUATION AS ALL BUT THE NRN TIER OF THE MPX CWA HAS SEEN 4
TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE FRIDAY ON TOP OF WHAT WAS ALREADY ONE OF
THE WETTEST STARTS TO A YEAR ON RECORD. WITH ONLY A SMALL BREAK IN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED...EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT IN
TIME TO 6Z TONIGHT WEST OF I-35 AND TO 12Z TONIGHT EAST OF I-35. THE
WATCH WAS ALSO EXPANDED NORTH TO INCLUDE THE AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED 3+ INCHES OF RAIN SINCE FRIDAY. ALSO ENDED THE WATCH AT 15Z
FOR THE FAR WRN COUNTIES...AS THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO START OVER OR JUST EAST OF THOSE COUNTIES...SO CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THOSE
COUNTIES AFTER THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
A DRIER POST FRONTAL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SURFACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WI. WE
THINK THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE AT SUNSHINE AND MODEST W-SW FLOW
COMBINED WITH 16-19 C AT 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA /WESTERN WI SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MN/. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD BUILD SOUTH AND MOISTURE RETURN
SHOULD BRING PWATS BACK UP NEAR 1.5-1.75" IN THE FAR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA. THE RETURN OF WEAK 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
FGEN BACK ACROSS NORTHERN NE AND EASTERN SD COULD MEAN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAKE IT INTO WESTERN MN ON SATURDAY...BUT THE BETTER
FOCUS IS IN THE STATES THAT BORDER MN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
PRECIP SIGNAL ON SUNDAY IS MUDDLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN
INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE AND OMEGA...BUT WE CAN`T PIN DOWN AN AREA
TO FOCUS POPS/WEATHER AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS LOW AND THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. DURING THIS TIME...THE
UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN CAMPED OUT TO OUR NORTHWEST DRIFTS SLOWLY
NORTH WITH TIME AND THE LONG WAVE FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL /SLIGHT
RIDGING/. BOTH THE 19.00Z GFS/ECMWF AND TO SOME DEGREE NAM HAVE A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE PSUEDO-ZONAL FLOW ARRIVING
IN THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE STRETCHED OUT ACROSS KS/IA/WI WHICH SHOULD BE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN COOLER AIR TO THE AREA AND
ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE BY TUESDAY. 00Z GFS NOW SHOWING 850 TEMPS
OF 8C TO 10C FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 00Z EURO AND EVEN THE
PREVIOUS ENSEMBLE RUNS STILL HAS 850 TEMPS OF 12C TO 14C DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM PAST GFS RUNS.
SO...MODEL CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLES ARE THE WAY TO GO. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE ECMWF HAS ALSO SHOWED AGREES IVE COLD
ADVECTION WITH A RUN OR TWO IN THE PAST 2-3 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FESTER THIS MORNING ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ.
BASED ON LLJ FORECAST THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER MOST OF THE
MORNING...WHICH WOULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH INVITATION BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z NEAR A RWF/AXN LINE
BEFORE TRAVELING EAST THE REST OF THE EVENING. USED THE HRRR AND
LOCAL WRF TO TIME THIS EXPECTED LINE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. OF
COURSE IF THIS MORNING STUFF DOES NOT CLEAN OUT ANY TIME
SOON...THIS COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS NEXT ROUND ON THE
FRONT. MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN MAINLY TIED TO
PRECIPITATION...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VIS
OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA COMING TONIGHT AS THE FRONT/SFC TROUGH WORKS
INTO THE AREA AND CAUSES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX WITH
MOISTURE STILL LINGERING OUTSIDE OF WESTERN MN.
KMSP...FROM THE LOOK OF THINGS AS I WRITE THIS...WE MAY BE DEALING
WITH THUNDERSTORMS OUT CLOSER TO 18Z AS OPPOSED TO 14Z AS ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO BUILD BACK TO THE SW. THERE IS STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT
ON THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH THE WAY THINGS
ARE TRENDING THIS MORNING...THINGS MAY NOT PLAY OUT THE WAY THEY
ARE CURRENTLY PLANNED OUT IN THE TAF WITH THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
BEING THAT THERE IS LESS CONVECTION THAN EXPECTED WITH THE
AFTERNOON ROUND.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. MVFR ISO SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. MVFR ISO SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS W 10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. MVFR SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS WNW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MNZ057>061-065>069-
073>077-082>085-091>093.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ047-
054>056-064.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MNZ062-063-070-078.
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WIZ023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
645 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE INCOMING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH N-CENTRAL MN AND
EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE N/NE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE THREAT FOR MORE HEAVY
RAINFALL ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND DRAINAGE INTO HIGH RIVERS
AND LAKES. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS N-CNTRL
AND E-CNTRL MN...WITH 1-1.5 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE. LESSER AMTS WILL
BE SEEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH ONE HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.
AREAS OF NORTHERN MN CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING FLOODING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ARE EXPECTED TO SEE AN ADDITIONAL 3/4 TO 1
INCH OF RAIN TODAY THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION ON WED IS SLIDING TO THE EAST AS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS IN FROM THE SW. AT THE SFC AN
ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BATTLE A STRONG SFC HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY AND
GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE N/NE THROUGH THE DAY. THE VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...COMBINED WITH A STAGNANT FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING HEAVY PRECIP
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE COOL
DRY AIR MASS FROM THE CANADIAN HIGH AND THE WARM MOIST AIR FROM
THE SOUTH. WHICH ONE WILL WIN OUT AND AT WHAT POINT DOES THE AXIS
OF STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION MAKE A STRONG PUSH EWD ACROSS THE
CWA. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME
THIS AFTERNOON IS MOST FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT
OVER N-CNTRL MN...WITH SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT TO THE NE DURING THE
00-06Z TIME FRAME THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE LIMITED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH WILL INHIBIT THE LEVEL
OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND KEEP THE FOCUS ON THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.
RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT LINGER ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THE SFC LOW WRAPPING UP IN SRN
SASKATCHEWAN AND SRN MANITOBA WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE MOVEMENT EWD
AND BRING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FROM THE NW FRI
AFTERNOON.
THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE THE PERSISTENT E/NE
WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...KEEPING CONDITIONS MUCH COOLER AROUND
THE LAKE. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING TO THE WEST WILL COMBINE WITH A
STRONG HUDSON BAY HIGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT PRES FALLS OVER NE
MN AND ACT TO INCREASE WINDS OFF THE LAKE ONCE AGAIN TODAY. EXPECT
SUSTAINED E WINDS AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTS 20-30 MPH. AREAS INLAND
WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS UP AROUND 70-75...WHILE LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE LAKE WILL SEE TEMPS ONLY INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. ON
FRIDAY...MORE SUN IS POSSIBLE WHICH WILL ALLOW INLAND TEMPS TO
RISE INTO THE 80S. THE LAKE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG...SO JUST INLAND FROM THE LAKE COULD WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S BUT NEARSHORE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH MB/SK EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...LEAVING THE NORTHLAND IN A QUASI ZONAL FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW WILL THEN AMPLIFY BY MONDAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES DEVELOP
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF BY MONDAY/TUESDAY IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE UPPER
TROUGH. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER A GOOD PORTION
OF THE NORTHERN CONUS/ADJACENT CANADIAN PROVINCES...AND THE GFS IS
SHARPER WITH THE TROUGH AND MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. BOTH OF THESE
MODELS HAVE MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OVER THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...AND
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW AND MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER THE REGION. WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN DOES NOT LOOK
LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONGER WAVE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. AS
MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE REALLY STARTS TO DIMINISH IN THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERED A GOOD PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DIMINISHING SOME ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE AS IT MOVES NORTH. TIMING THE PRECIP WILL BE ONE OF
THE CHALLENGES TODAY AND WE HAVE A MENTION IN ALL TAF SITES EARLY
IN THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR KINL. THE RAIN/STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AREAS...THEN MOVE EAST. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WILL IMPACT KBRD...AND MAY ALSO IMPACT KHYR/KHIB/KDLH FOR
A TIME THIS MORNING. THE RAP THEN SHOWS THOSE CEILINGS RISING EXCEPT AT
KBRD. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 60 53 68 51 / 90 90 30 30
INL 73 59 79 56 / 80 80 40 30
BRD 74 64 85 61 / 90 80 20 20
HYR 77 62 78 58 / 70 90 30 30
ASX 74 56 65 50 / 60 80 40 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ141>147.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
638 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
Water vapor imagery, as well as 08z RAP analysis indicates a fairly
potent trough over the northern Rockies, with southwesterly flow
over the Central Plains and over the forecast area. A shortwave
trough rotating around the larger low has sparked thunderstorms
across eastern Colorado and central Kansas, which have since moved
into central Nebraska. A decent veered low level jet is currently
nosing into southern Iowa and could produce enough convergence to
produce some early morning convection across southern/central Iowa,
and perhaps northern Missouri. The scenario in which the forecast
area gets any appreciable precip during the morning hours on
Thursday is pretty low confidence, but will cover the potential with
SChc PoPs through 12z and Chc PoPs through 18z. The better chance
for precipitation will come later this afternoon and this evening,
as the axis of a shortwave trough pivots through the area. This will
likely provide enough mid level ascent to produce scattered to
widespread showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon hours. A
warm and very moist atmosphere will lend itself to a high amount of
instability, ranging from 3000 to 3500 J/kg of SB Cape. With the
lack of any really good veering winds with height and lack of any
appreciable speed increase with height the deep layer shear on
Thursday will be rather anemic, generally in the 20 to 30 kt range.
The large instability will lend itself to strong updrafts, but with
the chance for competing updrafts and lack of wind shear feel the
severe threat for Thursday will be marginal. While scattered to
widespread thunderstorms will be possible later this evening, the
severe threat should be relegated to isolated coverage, with gusty
winds, heavy rain, lighting, and perhaps hail up to half dollar in
size will be the main hazards as we go forward into the evening.
Given the potential for scattered to broken clouds through the day,
with perhaps some rain, took temperatures for Thursday afternoon
down a couple degrees, with max temps in the lower to middle 80s.
The trough axis should clear the forecast area by late tonight,
shunting the better lift for precipitation formation further to the
east. Thus have a gradual decrease in PoPs through the overnight
hours, with the best chances across central Missouri toward the
overnight hours on Thursday. Expect Friday and Saturday to remain
mostly dry across the area, however with one or more MCS`s rolling
through the northern plains through the weekend it will remain
possible for the northern half of the CWA to perhaps see the
southern end of any MCS activity through Sunday morning. Latest
ECMWF paints a trough, embedded within the mostly zonal flow,
rolling through the area Sunday afternoon, perhaps bringing the next
best chance for rain Sunday afternoon through the evening. Showers
and thunderstorms could remain in the area through Monday afternoon,
as a cold frontal boundary will eventually slide through the area
erasing the chances for rain. The timing of this front on Monday
will dictate how long the thunderstorms stick around, but the
general feeling at this point is that they should be at least
through western Missouri by Monday evening, moving through central
Missouri by early Tuesday morning. Thereafter, expect a generally
dry forecast with perhaps a few bouts with isolated to scattered
convection through the mid to late week period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 634 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
Southerly winds will pick up through the day, bringing gusts up to 20
25 knots. Early morning could see a few isolated showers pop up near
the terminals, but expect the bulk of that activity to become more
established farther east. The better chance for precipitation will
come later this afternoon and this evening as scattered storms form
near and at the terminals. Expect at least a few hours of storms to
affect the terminals with periods of heavy rain and erratic, gusty
winds. The bulk of that activity should wane by the late evening, and
move toward the southeast, away from the terminals. Expect a weak
boundary to come into play tonight as winds may become calm and
variable for the final 8-10 hours of this forecast period.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Leighton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
622 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER MORE STABLE AIR BUILDS INTO THE FCST
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT MCS. THIS SHOULD DETER STORM
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...THE NAM SHOWS
THIS HIGH MOVING INTO MISSOURI AND RETURN MOISTURE MOVING UP THE
SRN/CNTL HIGH PLAINS AT THE H850-700MB LEVELS. THE MODEL SHOWS SOME
LIGHT QPF ACROSS SWRN NEB AND ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 700 J/KG
SUGGESTING A SMALL CUSTER OF TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AS K INDICES RISE TO 35 TO 40C. THE NMM AND ARF MODELS SHOW A FEW
TSTMS DEVELOPING ALSO BUT THESE ARE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS COLO/KS.
SO THE NAM MAY BE TOO FAST. THE FORECAST IS DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT
PENDING THE LATER MODEL DATA.
HIGHS TODAY RISE TO JUST THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH THE VERY COOL
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA. FULL SUN
IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER
60S TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. GULF MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY
SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...AND CONDITIONS BY
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE WEAK...BUT CONVERGENCE NEAR A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM AROUND VALENTINE TO OGALLALA
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
THESE LIKELY WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS THEY MOVE EAST
AIDED BY A MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET.
A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA OR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE FRONT...AND MODEST
BULK SHEAR PRESENT OF 30 PLUS KTS SPELLS MORE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. MID LEVEL FORCING AGAIN NOT GREAT...SO ACTIVITY MAY
REMAIN SCATTERED...BUT SEVERE STORMS SEEM POSSIBLE GIVEN SUCH
STRONG INSTABILITY AND DECENT AMOUNTS OF SHEAR. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WOULD BE RIGHT NEAR THE WARM FRONT...AND LATER
FORECASTS WILL BETTER DETERMINE THE LOCATION.
A SOMEWHAT MORE CONCENTRATED CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY EVOLVE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AHEAD OF A HEALTHY SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT.
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WORK
WEEK. HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACT TIMING OF WAVES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
AT THIS POINT. IT DOES APPEAR THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT MAY WANE
SOME AS MID LEVEL FLOW DECREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONAL...WITH NO HOT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE FCST AREA TODAY WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. THE NAM SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS SWRN NEB TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY BUT
IT IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS. THE BEST FORECAST FOR THE TIME
BEING IS VFR THRU 12Z FRIDAY PENDING LATER SOLNS OF THE RAP MODEL
WHICH WAS VERY ACCURATE FORECASTING TSTM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
733 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA PUTTING
OUR REGION IN A NORTHERLY FLOW OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 705 AM EDT THURSDAY...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
TODAY FROM A STEADY NORTH NORTHEST FLOW OF SUBSIDING DRY AIR AND
COOLER TEMPS FROM TRAJECTORIES COMING RIGHT FROM JAMES BAY. 850
TEMPS WILL BE FALL SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND 10C DOWN TO ABOUT 7C IN
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP SHOWS THIS GRADIENT POISED JUST
NORTH THE BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 70S MOST PLACES, MILDEST IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTHERN
AND LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME THIN FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MTNS WITH COLD ADVECTION,
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, AND VORT MAX SWINGING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 441 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH MAINLY SCATTERED DIURNAL DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. 850 TEMPS 5-8C FRIDAY AND WARMING TO 9-10C
SATURDAY SO HIGH TEMPS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND IN THE
70S ON SATURDAY. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 40S, EXCEPT A FEW UPPER
30S IN THE NORMALLY COLD SHELTERED SPOTS. DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH AND LIGHT AT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET STRETCH OF DRY/SEASONABLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY INCREASINGLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS.
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE UNDER A PREVAILING DRY NWLY MID-
LEVEL FLOW REGIME SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY LOW
DEWPOINTS (UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S) AND LOW PW VALUES OF 0.6-0.8".
SHOULD CONTINUE MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND WITH WEAK
NEAR- SURFACE FLOW COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPS CLIMB A BIT TO
+10C TO +11C...SO SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEKEND.
SOME SUBTLE CHANGES THEREAFTER WITH 700-500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND
DEVELOPING SW LOW-LEVEL WINDS ON MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO +14C
AND SHOULD BRING HIGHS TO AROUND 80F IN THE VALLEYS. WILL SEE A
MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-UPR 50S AS WELL. STILL
LOOKS DRY THOUGH MAY SEE PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON SKIES WITH CUMULUS
CLOUD FORMATION. STRONGER DEEP LAYER WSW-SW FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S TUESDAY WITH
HUMID CONDITIONS. BETTER CHANCE FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
POSSIBLE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. COULD SEE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. CARRIED 30-35 POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING...COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WEDNESDAY (MID-UPR 70S)...ESPECIALLY IF BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH SCT050-060 DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...THEN SKC
TONIGHT. PATCHY IFR FOG EXPECTED AT MPV/SLK 07-11Z. WINDS
GENERALLY N-NW AROUND 5 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN 10-12KTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 15-18KTS DURING THE 15-23Z PERIOD. BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THRU 00Z TUESDAY...VFR AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. NOCTURNAL MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY KSLK/KMPV
IN RADIATION FOG 06-12Z EACH MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
705 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA PUTTING
OUR REGION IN A NORTHERLY FLOW OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 705 AM EDT THURSDAY...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
TODAY FROM A STEADY NORTH NORTHEST FLOW OF SUBSIDING DRY AIR AND
COOLER TEMPS FROM TRAJECTORIES COMING RIGHT FROM JAMES BAY. 850
TEMPS WILL BE FALL SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND 10C DOWN TO ABOUT 7C IN
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP SHOWS THIS GRADIENT POISED JUST
NORTH THE BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 70S MOST PLACES, MILDEST IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTHERN
AND LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME THIN FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MTNS WITH COLD ADVECTION,
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, AND VORT MAX SWINGING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 441 AM EDT THURSDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH MAINLY SCATTERED DIURNAL DRIVEN CUMULUS CLOUDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. 850 TEMPS 5-8C FRIDAY AND WARMING TO 9-10C
SATURDAY SO HIGH TEMPS UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND IN THE
70S ON SATURDAY. LOW TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 40S, EXCEPT A FEW UPPER
30S IN THE NORMALLY COLD SHELTERED SPOTS. DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH AND LIGHT AT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT THURSDAY...QUIET STRETCH OF DRY/SEASONABLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY INCREASINGLY HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS.
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE UNDER A PREVAILING DRY NWLY MID-
LEVEL FLOW REGIME SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH RELATIVELY LOW
DEWPOINTS (UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S) AND LOW PW VALUES OF 0.6-0.8".
SHOULD CONTINUE MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND WITH WEAK
NEAR- SURFACE FLOW COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ON SUNDAY...850MB TEMPS CLIMB A BIT TO
+10C TO +11C...SO SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEKEND.
SOME SUBTLE CHANGES THEREAFTER WITH 700-500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND
DEVELOPING SW LOW-LEVEL WINDS ON MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO +14C
AND SHOULD BRING HIGHS TO AROUND 80F IN THE VALLEYS. WILL SEE A
MODEST INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-UPR 50S AS WELL. STILL
LOOKS DRY THOUGH MAY SEE PARTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON SKIES WITH CUMULUS
CLOUD FORMATION. STRONGER DEEP LAYER WSW-SW FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S TUESDAY WITH
HUMID CONDITIONS. BETTER CHANCE FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
POSSIBLE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. COULD SEE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. CARRIED 30-35 POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DEPENDING ON FRONTAL TIMING...COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WEDNESDAY (MID-UPR 70S)...ESPECIALLY IF BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...LINGERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITHIN FRONTAL
INVERSION ARE RESULTING IN GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE
REGION AT 05Z. DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THESE CLOUDS. SLOWER CLEARING SHOULD LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL...AND THE TAFS NOW INDICATE JUST TEMPO GROUPS FOR
POSSIBLE IFR FOG AT MPV/SLK 08-11Z...AND PERIODS VCFG OR BRIEF
MVFR FOG AT PBG/BTV TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. DAYLIGHT HRS SKC-
FEW040-050...WITH A FEW FAIR WEATHER CU DOTTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. WINDS GENERALLY N-NW AROUND 5 KTS EARLY TODAY...THEN
10G18KT DURING THE 15-23Z THURSDAY PERIOD. BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AGAIN FOR TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THRU 00Z TUESDAY...VFR AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE. NOCTURNAL MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY KSLK/KMPV
IN RADIATION FOG 06-12Z EACH MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
640 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WETTER WITH ROUNDS OF STORMS/SHOWERS INTO WEEKEND...WITH FRONT IN
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION TO WATCH INTO THIS MORNING. LARGE
MASS OF RELATIVELY STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY JUST OF TO
NW...ASSOCIATED WITH 500MB VORT MAX THAT THE RAP SHOWS WEAKENING
AS IT ENTERS CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS CONVECTION ALSO
HAS PUT OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM CMH TO
CVG...WHICH COULD DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT MOVES EAST TOWARD AND INTO CWA. SECOND AREA OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM SW OF CRW TO AROUND EKN. THIS
IS ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING SE. ALL
IN ALL...HAVE A TRICKY FORECAST WHEN IT COMES TO TIMING OF
CONVECTION TODAY...AS MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING IT VERY WELL
UP TO THIS POINT. IN GENERAL...JUST USED EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS TO DRAW POPS THROUGH THE MORNING. BY THIS
AFTERNOON...HAVE SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTH...INTO NORTHERN
CWA...WITH TAIL OF THIS MORNINGS VORT MAX STILL PULLING OUT. SO
HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY...GRADUALLY SINKING
SOUTH INTO TONIGHT. WITH VERY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY
SHOWER/STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOWNPOURS. WILL LEAVE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AS IS...ALTHOUGH THINK STREAMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE RAIN
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AND IT MIGHT JUST BE PRIMING THE GROUND FOR
RAIN LATER THIS WEEK. GRANTED...ANY DOWNPOUR COULD CAUSE WATER TO
POND IN TYPICAL AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. COOLED TEMPS ACROSS THE
NORTH BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH BOUNDARY IN THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY...WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
LITTLE INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...A MID-LEVEL TROF WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY...BEFORE PUSHING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT.
A SURFACE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST. THE NAM INDICATES THIS
FEATURE WILL PUSH EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WHILE THE GFS
CLOSER TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH
OF FRIDAY NIGHT. END RESULT OF ALL OF THIS SHOULD BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN DURING THESE TWO PERIODS.
THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST OF REGION BY EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY. NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL
FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD LOWER
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS...AND WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY
RAIN IN FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CONTINUED GENERALLY MESSY AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD....CHARACTERIZED BY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. W/NW
FLOW WITH A DIFFUSE SFC FRONT REMAINS DRAPED NEAR THE AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVES BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. TOUGH TO PIN DOWN EXACT TIMING OF COURSE THIS
FAR IN ADVANCE WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING BETWEEN OP EXTENDED
NWP...WITH VARYING ENSEMBLES NOT REALLY AIDING MUCH.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TODAY AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS IN FROM THE SOUTH...AND
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS BY. IN THE VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE AT
ANYTIME. DID TAKE A SHOT AND INCLUDED SOME TEMPOS FOR IFR IN
THUNDERSTORMS BASED MOSTLY OF THE HRRR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER
LOW.
FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT DEPENDS ON IF SOME BREAKS CAN FORM IN THE
CLOUDS...DID INCLUDE SOME MVFR FOG...IFR AT EKN...BASED ON LAV
PROBABILITIES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION COULD VARY. FOG TONIGHT
MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M M M M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H M
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
STILL EXPECTING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THIS WEEKEND AND WILL LEAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE COULD LEAD TO DOWNPOURS OUT OF ANY
SHOWER OR STORM. THINK RAIN TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL MOSTLY JUST
PRIME THE GROUND FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED
ISSUES TODAY AS WELL.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-026>032-036>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...MZ
HYDROLOGY...MZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
633 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR STRATUS WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE TERMINALS AGAIN THIS
MORNING...AT LEAST FROM TIME TO TIME...IN THIS LOW LVL MOISTURE
RETURN REGIME AT NIGHT. COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL OK WILL
SLIDE EAST INTO NORTHEAST OK BEFORE WEAKENING TOWARD MIDDAY OR
EARLY AFTERNOON PER LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL INSERT TEMPO GROUPS
IN THE NE OK TAFS BTWN 15 AND 19Z TO COVER. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...SO A PROB30 SHUD SUFFICE
FOR THE ERN OK SITES. THINK NW AR WILL STAY DRY THRU MOST OF THE
PERIOD. SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z ACROSS NE OK INTO NW AR.
LACY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO HIGH PWA ENVIRONMENT
OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SHOWERS AND THUNDER COMMON
TODAY FOR EASTERN OK..LITTLE LESS SO NORTHWEST AR.
MODEL LAYER DIV - Q FIELDS SHOW AMPLE LIFT TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY IN MOIST CHANNEL. MAY BE SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE UPPER FLOW
PUSHES A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM KANSAS OUR WAY
MONDAY. THAT BOUNDARY AND MINOR WAVES IN A ZONAL
FLOW DICTATES CHANCE POPS THROUGH MID WEEK.
GW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 86 73 90 72 / 70 60 50 20
FSM 88 72 91 70 / 40 40 40 20
MLC 85 72 90 70 / 50 40 50 10
BVO 85 69 89 68 / 70 80 40 20
FYV 82 70 86 67 / 50 60 50 20
BYV 84 70 86 69 / 30 60 40 20
MKO 85 72 90 69 / 50 60 50 20
MIO 83 70 87 70 / 60 70 40 20
F10 84 72 90 69 / 60 50 50 20
HHW 87 72 91 70 / 30 20 40 0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1040 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND JUST GAVE THE AREA A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. AS TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON...ANTICIPATE SEEING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME STORMS. PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT FROM THE NEARLY STATIONARY
MID/UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST NEAR THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER MIGHT
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE TODAY`S ACTIVITY AS WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TRIES TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND SHUT
THINGS DOWN. THE 12Z NAM MOS GUIDANCE INSISTS THAT THE RIDGING WILL
WIN OUT WHILE THE HRRR DEVELOPS THE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHALL SEE. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014/
DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
OVERALL JUST A SMATTERING OF MVFR CIGS OVER KUTS/KCXO BUT
OTHERWISE MOST TERMINALS STILL IN THE VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY. MAY SEE
SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP 14-16Z BUT REALLY NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR
A TEMPO GROUP. SHRA ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL AT THE MOMENT
WITH MAYBE SOMETHING FOR LBX/GLS OFF THE GULF. RAPID REFRESH MODEL
AND WRF SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SHRA DURING THE 17-21Z TIME FRAME
BUT HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE EXACTLY. INTEND TO HANDLE ANY
CONVECTION WITH AMMENDMENTS SHOULD ANYTHING IMPACT TERMINALS. LOOK
FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THUR MORNING BUT EXPECT WINDS
TO BE WEAKER.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AN ANALYSIS OF THE 00Z UPPER AIR SURFACES REVEALED A SOUTH-TO-
NORTH 200 AND 300 MB RIDGE OVER SE TX...AND A WEAK 500 MB HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NC TO THE UPPER TX COAST. THERE WAS
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB DUE TO THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE CAROLINAS.
THE FORECAST MODELS BUILD THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER SE TX THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK BEFORE THEN DIGGING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MODEL OUTPUT AND GUIDANCE BOTH FORECAST LESS CHANCES FOR RAIN
TODAY THAN WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP
LESS CAPE AND LOWER PW/S...WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR AND TEXAS
TECH MODELS REFLECTING THIS BY FORECASTING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THE SEA BREEZE MAY
FIGURE MORE PROMINENTLY. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL GO WITH 10 PERCENT
CHANCES NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING AND 20 PERCENT INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SAME SCENARIO LOOKS TO OCCUR ON
FRIDAY...ALBEIT WITH ONLY 10 PERCENT CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE INLAND AREAS.
WITH THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD...BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THE
GFS AND ECWMF FORECAST A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE TO MOVE AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS FEATURE MAY WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE UPPER
TX COAST AND PROVIDE A MORE MOIST AIRMASS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. BOTH MODELS ALSO DEVELOP AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SE TX DURING
THE EARLY AND MID WEEK PERIOD. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
TIMING...WILL GO WITH ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS DECREASING LATER IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED IN OFFSHORE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE CLOSER TO
THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE WINDS. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS WITH
2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 92 74 93 74 94 / 20 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 75 92 75 94 / 20 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 80 89 80 88 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
629 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
OVERALL JUST A SMATTERING OF MVFR CIGS OVER KUTS/KCXO BUT
OTHERWISE MOST TERMINALS STILL IN THE VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY. MAY SEE
SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP 14-16Z BUT REALLY NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR
A TEMPO GROUP. SHRA ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL AT THE MOMENT
WITH MAYBE SOMETHING FOR LBX/GLS OFF THE GULF. RAPID REFRESH MODEL
AND WRF SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SHRA DURING THE 17-21Z TIME FRAME
BUT HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE EXACTLY. INTEND TO HANDLE ANY
CONVECTION WITH AMMENDMENTS SHOULD ANYTHING IMPACT TERMINALS. LOOK
FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THUR MORNING BUT EXPECT WINDS
TO BE WEAKER.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AN ANALYSIS OF THE 00Z UPPER AIR SURFACES REVEALED A SOUTH-TO-
NORTH 200 AND 300 MB RIDGE OVER SE TX...AND A WEAK 500 MB HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NC TO THE UPPER TX COAST. THERE WAS
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB DUE TO THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE CAROLINAS.
THE FORECAST MODELS BUILD THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER SE TX THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK BEFORE THEN DIGGING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MODEL OUTPUT AND GUIDANCE BOTH FORECAST LESS CHANCES FOR RAIN
TODAY THAN WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP
LESS CAPE AND LOWER PW/S...WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR AND TEXAS
TECH MODELS REFLECTING THIS BY FORECASTING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THE SEA BREEZE MAY
FIGURE MORE PROMINENTLY. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL GO WITH 10 PERCENT
CHANCES NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING AND 20 PERCENT INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SAME SCENARIO LOOKS TO OCCUR ON
FRIDAY...ALBEIT WITH ONLY 10 PERCENT CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE INLAND AREAS.
WITH THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD...BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THE
GFS AND ECWMF FORECAST A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE TO MOVE AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS FEATURE MAY WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE UPPER
TX COAST AND PROVIDE A MORE MOIST AIRMASS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. BOTH MODELS ALSO DEVELOP AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SE TX DURING
THE EARLY AND MID WEEK PERIOD. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
TIMING...WILL GO WITH ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
40
AVIATION...
WINDS OFF THE COAST ARE STILL STRONG ENOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH SPEED CONVERGENCE LATER IN THE MORNING TO SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS. OVERALL LOOKING AT VFR CIGS WITH MAY BE A COUPLE HRS OF
MVFR IN THE MORNING HRS. CEILINGS SHOULD THEN LIFT FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS FROM THE SE. LOOK FOR THE
SAME CONDITIONS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO THUR BUT WINDS MAY BE A
LITTLE LESS.
39
MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS DECREASING LATER IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED IN OFFSHORE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE CLOSER TO
THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE WINDS. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS WITH
2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 92 74 93 74 94 / 20 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 75 92 75 94 / 20 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 80 89 80 88 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1008 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT. UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE BOUNDARY MEANDERS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT THURSDAY...
INITIAL BAND OF BROKEN EARLIER CONVECTION HAS FADED UPON
ENCOUNTERING A BIT MORE STABLE AIR TO THE SE OF THE WESTERN SLOPES
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EARLIER
CONVECTION AND ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN
UPTICK IN COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH/NW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FLOW
REMAINS DEEP WESTERLY PER MORNING SOUNDINGS SO STILL LIKELY
ENOUGH INTIALLY TO LIMIT EASTWARD ADVANCE ACROSS THE RIDGES. MUCH
STRONGER SHORTWAVE SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER
LATER ON AS MODELS SPILL IT SE WITH SOME INTERSECTION WITH THE
PIEDMONT LEE TROF LATE. MOST OF THIS COVERAGE LIKELY TO RUN AROUND
THE EASTERN DOWNSLOPE WITH A BAND OF STORMS POSSIBLY UNZIPPING
BACK WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA...AND PUSHING SOUTH BY LATE
AFTERNOON UNDER THE VORT TAIL/OUTFLOW. THIS SUPPORTED BY MODIFIED
CAPES PUSHING 3K J/KG AGAIN ESPCLY EAST AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
LIFT AS BETTER DYNAMICS ARRIVE. THUS WILL BE RUNNING WITH LOW
LIKELYS FOR INIT COVERAGE NW...THEN HIGHER CHANCE POPS EAST PER
SHORTWAVE...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH/WEST LATE WHERE THINGS LIKELY
BAND UP A BIT MORE. HAVE LESS POP TODAY IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE
RIDGE IN LIGHT OF A RATHER WELL MIXED WEST WIND INITIALLY AND IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP WHICH MAINTAIN A HOLE IN
COVERAGE CENTRAL SECTIONS UNITL LATE.
HIGHS APPEAR ON TRACK WITH 90-95 EAST GIVEN DOWNSLOPE AND MORE SUN BUT
LIKELY COOLER NW WHERE EARLY CLOUDS/TSRA MAY HOLD HOLD VALUES DOWN
A FEW DEGREES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...
SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY CROSSES INTO EASTERN
VIRGINIA BY THIS EVENING. FLOW 500 MB CHANGES FROM LIGHT WESTERLY
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TO NORTHWEST AROUND THE DIGGING UPPER LOW IN
SOUTHEAST CANADA.
BEST Q-V FORCING STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT SHORT WAVE WILL STILL RESULT IN
MORE EXTENSIVE AREAL COVERAGE AND MORE ORGANIZED STORMS COMPARED
WITH THE ISOLATED PULSE CONVECTION OF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AT 2AM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE MARYLAND PANHANDLE INTO
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE LOCATION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AT THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE WHERE THE HIGHEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. CLOUDS FROM THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL ALSO LIMIT HEATING IN THE WEST. WILL
HAVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HIGH
CAPE/LOW SHEAR THROUGH THE EVENING.
SURFACE FRONT AS SEEN IN LIFTED INDEX FORECAST AND PUSHES LEADING
EDGE OF DRIER AIR AND MORE STABLE AIR IN FROM THE NORTH...REACHING
THE NORTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. SHIFT TO DEEPER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL AIDE IN CHANGE OF AIR MASS IN THE PIEDMONT
AND COAST PLAIN BUT SKEPTICAL THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE MODELS DEPICT BY FRIDAY MORNING.
STARTING OUT WITH MORE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN WEST THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL HOLD BACK ON HEATING AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT THURSDAY...
UPPER TROF PUSHES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE WEEKEND...AS
THE RIDGE AXIS DEAMPLIFYS OR FLATTENS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ON FRIDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE
SLOWLY TRAVELING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NORTH CAROLINA. PLACEMENT
OF THE BOUNDARY IS PROBLEMATIC WITH LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND
CONCERNS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL NOT TRAVEL THAT FAR SOUTH
ESPECIALLY WITH THE 85H THETA-E BOUNDARY REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS FOR CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH LIGHTEST IN THE SOUTHEAST. WONDERING IF EASTERLY
FLOW ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE EASTERN SLOPES WILL RESULT IN MORE
SHOWERS AND LIMITED INSTABILITIES. BELIEVE THAT MODEST
INSTABILITIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD GENERATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY IN THE WEST. WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE COMPLEX COULD TRACK NEAR THE AREA WITH 5H
ISOHEIGHTS ORIENTED NW-SE. ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS
SHOULD TRACK CLOSE TO THE 85H THETA-E BOUNDARY WHICH IS NORTH OF
THE AREA. IN ANY CASE...SCATTERED POSSIBLY STRONG CONVECTION COULD
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
GENERATE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY WITH DISTURBANCE TRACKING
SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA SHORE.
PLAYED TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY WITH READINGS FROM
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH
VALUES FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE
EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SATURDAY FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 90 IN THE PIEDMONT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE GFS MOS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ON SUNDAY INTO
SOUTH CAROLINA. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...WHILE ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. DECREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WITH VALUES
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING PULSE STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
LOOKING BEYOND THE EXTENDED...A COLD FRONT MAY CLEAR THINGS OUT BY
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY UNTIL THIS
COLD FRONT PASSES EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 750 AM EDT THURSDAY...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE A TRIGGER FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE
LOCATIONS OF THE OUTFLOW AND AMOUNT OF HEATING AND INSTABILITY
THAT CAN BE GENERATED IN SPITE OF ANY DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH VCNTY TSRA IN THE TAFS AND REFINE AS NEEDED. BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER 4PM. CONFIDENCE
AND PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT ANY PARTICULAR AIRPORT IS LOW AT
THIS TIME.
A BACKDOOR FRONT DIPS SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE MASON-DIXON
LINE TONIGHT WHICH WILL INCREASE THE RANGE OF STORMS INTO MORE
SCATTERED AND MULTICELLULAR AS OPPOSED TO PULSE. MODELS ARE
BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS AND FOG INTO THE FORECAST AREA NORTH
OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWED DRIER AIR
COMING IN AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW LVL
BOUNDARY WILL NOT EVEN MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS LYH BEFORE 12Z
FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD GREATLY LOWER THE THREAT OF LATE NIGHT
STRATUS.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BETTER COVERAGE INTO FRIDAY. A
WEAK FLOW PATTERN HOLDING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP THE STORM
CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING SAT/SUN.
AREAS OF IFR FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON. THE
MOST OPTIMAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS EACH DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
LATE MORNING AFTER FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIFT AND BURN OFF...AND BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION REDEVELOPS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
635 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
FORECAST TIME WAS SPENT ON IMMEDIATE CONVECTION AND FLOODING
ISSUES...AND THEN THE EVOLUTION AND THREATS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
ONGOING CONVECTION HAS BEEN REALLY HITTING NORTHEAST IOWA HARD
WITH HEAVY RAIN IN A NEARLY STAGNANT BAND FROM CRESCO TO NEAR
POSTVILLE. RADAR ESTIMATES ARE 5-7 INCHES IN THAT AREA WITH LEGACY
AND DUAL POL...AND IF WE ARE CONSERVATIVE...AT LEAST 4 INCHES HAS
FALLEN ON THAT BAND. THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE THE COMPLEX SLOWLY
SHIFTING SOUTH AS THE COLD POOL DEEPENS. ANOTHER COMPLEX IN
CENTRAL MN IN NOW CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH IS LIFTING NORTHEAST
TIED TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THAT COMPLEX WILL CLIP THE NORTHWEST MOST
FORECAST AREA WITH STORMS THIS MORNING...BUT THE MAIN STORY IS
NORTHEAST IOWA.
LATEST RAP TRENDS ARE STEADY AND LEND CONFIDENCE THAT THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL FOCUS NORTHWARD INTO NRN MN AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD
IL/I-80 AS SUNRISE APPROACHES. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLD
POOL DEEPENING SHOULD MOVE THE CONVECTION OUT OF NORTHEAST IA AND
SOUTHWEST WI AS THE EARLY MORNING PROGRESSES. 1000 J/KG MUCAPE
LINE PER SPC ANALYSIS IS NOW FROM MINNEAPOLIS TO CHICAGO AND SOUTH
WITH STILL SOME 2000J/KG VALUES TOWARD KALO IN NORTHEAST IOWA. SO
PLENTY OF ENERGY FOR RAINFALL MAKERS.
THE DAYTIME HOURS SEEM TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO PAST DAYS WHERE
CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...ONLY TO BUILD CAPE AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY. THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND SHIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY LYING UP AGAIN NEAR A KAEL-KDBQ LINE BY
EVENING. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE CONVECTING THE THE WARM
FRONT BUT BELIEVE THE CAP SHOULD HOLD AND ALLOW CAPE TO BUILD WITH
NO REAL FORCING ON THAT BOUNDARY EXCEPT WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WYOMING
THAT WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PUSH THE
COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...A SLOWER
PROGRESSION THAN EARLIER FORECASTS. THE LATEST 19.05 AND 19.06
HRRR RUNS HAVE COME TO EXACTLY WHAT OUR VISUALIZATION IS FOR THE
LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A BREAK...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO 2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND FORMING A LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY THIS EVENING.
WIND SHEAR WITH THIS CONVECTION IS ONLY IN THE 0-3KM LAYER AND
WEAK TO MODERATE...MAYBE 20-25 KTS. WITH THE FRONTAL FORCING
FAVORING A LINE OF CONVECTION AND 0-3KM SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTED
WEST-EAST...BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND WIND DAMAGE ARE THREAT THAT
IS FAVORED. SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK LOOKS ABOUT RIGHT WITH MAIN WIND
THREAT COVERAGE WEST OF MISS RIVER. WOULD THINK THAT WI STILL HAS
A CHANCE AT DAMAGING WINDS...BUT LESS IN COVERAGE. THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE TO THE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE SOME LIMIT TO THE RAINFALL BUT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.5 INCHES AND THE SAME AIR MASS AS
PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH GOOD INSTABILITY BUILDING TODAY...1-2 INCHES
OF RAIN COULD AFFECT MOST AREAS. ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM WOULD BE
IF THE WARM FRONT DOES CONVECT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATER AND
FORCING INCREASES...AS THAT WOULD PROVIDE A LONGER DURATION RAIN
CHANCE NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF WARM FRONT. THUS...HAVE EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING /SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION/.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HERE IS THE GOOD NEWS SECTION FOR THOSE THAT HAVE ENDURED
FLOODING. FRIDAY WILL BE A DRYING DAY WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AIR MASS OF 1.8 INCHES SHIFTING EAST POST-FRONTALLY...AND
SOMEWHAT LOWER VALUES OF 1.25 INCHES COMING INTO THE AREA /ABOUT
125-150 PERCENT NORMAL/. CONVECTIVE CHANCES STILL ARE AROUND WITH
WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MONDAY. OVERALL...WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THIS
BETTER FRIDAY AFTER THIS HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER MOVES THROUGH. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PERIOD...AND RAINFALL COULD STILL BE
MODERATE IN RATE...BUT IT SEEMS LESS ORGANIZED EXCEPT FOR MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THESE DAYS APPEAR TO BE DRY AND TEMPERATURES PRETTY NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUED TO FIRE SHOWERS/STORMS NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT...TRACKING NORTH NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST MN/WESTERN WI. THESE
WILL IMPACT KRST...AND LIKELY KLSE THROUGH 14-15Z. RETREATING JET
SHOULD RESULT IN DIMINISHMENT IN THE AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE
PCPN BY MID MORNING...AND RESULT IN A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS WILL REFIRE
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT - WAVERING WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IA -
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MARCHING EAST ACROSS MN/IA. TSRA CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR KRST/KLSE DURING THE EVENING...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS LIKELY. TIMING FOR THE ONSET OF THIS NEXT ROUND IS
NOT CLEAR THOUGH...AND THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE MOVED UP A FEW
HOURS. TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND FORECASTS
UPDATED AS NEEDED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 425 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
HAVE DECIDED TO EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO 7 AM FRIDAY.
MANY AREA SOILS ARE SATURATED FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. LOOKS LIKE ANYWHERE FROM 3-7 INCHES OF
RAIN...POSSIBLY HIGHER WHEN THE TOTALS COME IN THIS MORNING...HAS FALLEN
SINCE SUNDAY IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. WITH A DELAY OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO MORE ON PEAK HEATING THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED TONIGHT...DECIDED TO EXTENDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. DO THINK TONIGHTS LINE OF STORMS WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE BUT STILL COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES VERY
RAPIDLY AND THOSE AREAS THAT ARE VULNERABLE WILL SEE FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL. THERE MAY ALSO BE EXISTING AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS IN
PLACE FROM CURRENT RAINFALL IMPACTS. KIND OF A MESS FROM A
SERVICE/PRODUCT STANDPOINT.
RIVERS IN NORTHEAST IOWA WILL NEED AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD WARNINGS
IT APPEARS. WE WILL ASSESS THIS IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT IT
APPEARS THE UPPER IOWA AND TURKEY RIVERS WILL NEED WARNINGS. THE
TURKEY BASIN TOOK A BIG HIT TO THE HEADWATERS...AND AM HOPING THE
CURRENT RAINS KEEP MOVING SOUTH TO AVOID A TOTAL BASIN POUNDING
AND MORE MODERATE LEVEL FLOODING. THE YELLOW RIVER NEAR POSTVILLE
WAS ABOUT 6 FEET OVER FLOOD STAGE AND ALTHOUGH WE DONT ISSUE
FORECASTS THERE...IT WILL PROBABLY RISE ANOTHER 2-3 FEET TO NEAR
18. THAT IS A STEEP RIVER IN THAT AREA AND THIS IS DANGEROUS
FLOODING...BUT IT IS ALSO MAINLY PASTURE LAND.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WIZ032>034-041>044-
053>055-061.
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT
AVIATION...BOYNE
HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
240 PM MST THU JUN 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE CU FIELD NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS IT WAS WEDNESDAY.
RADAR/SATELLITE WAS SHOWING ISOLATED ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE BORDER
ALONG SONORA/CHIHUAHUA STATE LINE...PRETTY MUCH WHERE THE HRRR MODEL
HAD BEEN INDICATING. THESE STORMS WERE FIRING ON BACK EDGE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE THAT WAS ON THE E QUAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT WAS NEAR HERMOSILLO. MAY SEE A FEW STORMS POP UP JUST SOUTH OF
COCHISE COUNTY INTO THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO HOLD ON TO VERY VERY
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A DRY THUNDERSTORM OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
WEAK TROFINESS OVER SONORA/BAJA WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW UP
INTO THE SERN SECTIONS. THUS WILL KEEP MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
DRY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS E-SE OF TUCSON. SAME GOES FOR SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG WITH WARMER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE THAT FAR AWAY SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK BUT MAIN
STORY WILL BE THE MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE LOW DESERTS
RETURNING TO THE 105-109 RANGE. WILL JUST HAVE TO MAKE DAILY
ADJUSTMENTS TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE SONORA MEXICO THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/00Z.
SCT CUMULUS NEAR 120 KFT EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER 20/03Z WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. SCT TO LOCALLY BROKEN
CUMULUS NEAR 100 KFT DEVELOPING AFTER 20/18Z EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST OF BENSON. SOUTHWEST
WIND 6-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AFT 20/03Z THEN
BECOMING WEST 7-12 KTS AFTER 20/19Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. CERNIGLIA
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...STILL A SLIGHT THREAT OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
THIS EVENING EASTERN BORDER AREA OTHERWISE CLEARING TONIGHT. A BIT
OF EXTRA MOISTURE THIS AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SLIGHTLY
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF BENSON DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BOTH DAYS. OTHERWISE...WEAKER
FLOW ALOFT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY ONWARD. CERNIGLIA
&&
.CLIMATE...IT HAS BEEN OVER THREE YEARS...JUNE 10-11 2011...SINCE
THE TUCSON AIRPORT RECORDED BACK-TO-BACK JUNE DAYS WITH HIGHS THAT
WERE IN THE 90S. AFTER A HIGH OF 99 WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST HIGH FOR
TODAY IS 99.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
134 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
.AVIATION...
STORMS DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF KPBI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AND MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. SO HAVE TEMPO GROUP FOR ALL OF THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN STORMS. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT WINDS
TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KAPF...WITH THE
WESTERLY FLOW...JUST KEPT VCSH AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE EAST AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014/
UPDATE...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO OUR CURRENT FORECAST OTHER THAN ADJUSTING
POPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH OFF THE EAST CENTRAL COAST AND VERY WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH
CENTERED NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW THE
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO A WEAK CLOSED CIRCULATION THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS A DEEP MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWAT AT 1.77
INCHES AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW AT 5 TO 7 MPH. SO IT
APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SLOW MOVING CELLS.
IT DOES NOT NECESSARILY APPEAR ACCORDING TO THE SOUNDING THAT
THERE IS MUCH OF A WIND THREAT BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE HWO AT THIS TIME. THE ONLY
OTHER CHANGES POSSIBLE WITH LATER TRENDS MIGHT BE TO ADJUST
AFTERNOON POPS CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST WITH THE SLOW SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW. THE LATEST HRRR IS ONLY SHOWING ERRATIC DEVELOPMENT
BUT DOES FAVOR THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014/
AVIATION...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE
EAST COAST BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND THEN CONTINUING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
SOUTHEAST AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST AT KAPF. RAIN COULD CONTINUE NEAR
KPBI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE LOW REMAINS NEARBY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014/
SHORT TERM...
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS ALSO TRYING TO DEVELOP AS WELL. THIS
WILL AIDE IN CONVERGENCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE CELLS TO DEVELOP
TODAY. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE MBE VECTORS AT ONLY
3-6KTS. SINCE THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BE WEAK, THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SLOW MOVING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING. COMPARED TO A FEW DAYS AGO, 500 MB
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING 1 TO 2 DEGREES WARMER, AND THE
FREEZING LEVEL IS SLOWLY RISING, NOW BACK OVER 14KFT, MAKING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL TODAY LOWER. LOOKING AT THE NCAPE, WHICH WAS
LESS THAN .1 ON LAST EVENING SOUNDINGS, AND ALSO ON TODAYS MODEL
NAM SOUNDINGS, WILL EXPECT THE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL TO BE LOWER.
WITH A NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE, ANY DOWNDRAFTS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE WET. AS WITH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, THERE IS STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG DOWNBURSTS OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH. SO,
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING STILL
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER IN
THE EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE COME
STRONG AGAIN ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
LONG TERM...
THE LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL REMAIN NEARBY OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THEN START TO
PULL AWAY BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME MOISTURE STILL REMAINING IN PLACE, THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. MARINE CONDITIONS WITHIN CONVECTION COULD BECOME ROUGH
AT TIMES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 72 89 74 90 / 30 50 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 89 76 89 / 30 40 30 20
MIAMI 74 90 75 90 / 30 50 30 30
NAPLES 72 88 73 89 / 30 40 20 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...84/AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
507 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
506 PM CDT
ORGANIZED QLCS IS APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT THIS TIME
WITH SOME MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION EVIDENT WITH MCV AT THE NORTHERN
FLANK OF THE LINE. KDVN WSR-88D VWP SHOWS SLIGHT STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
THAN RAP SUGGESTS AND RAP DOESNT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
ONGOING SITUATION...WHICH RESULTS IN SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT THIS EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN
EVIDENCE OF OUTFLOW BEGINNING TO SURGE OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE...BUT
WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY PRESENT AHEAD OF THE LINE AND SOME MESOSCALE
ORGANIZATION NOT THINKING THAT ANY WEAKENING OF THE LINE WITH BE
MORE GRADUAL THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
CURRENT RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ARE SOMEWHAT CONCERNING REGARDING
THE SHORT TERM (0-6 HOUR) FLASH FLOOD THREAT. LEFT OVER SURFACE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM INDIANAPOLIS NORTHWEST TO NEAR DUBUQUE IS
BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP ACROSS ILLINOIS WEST OF THE NW INDIANA
CONVECTION. KILX VWP SHOWS ABOUT 15 INCREASING TO 20KT SSW FLOW
AROUND 850MB WHICH RIDING OVER THE BOUNDARY SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTING
THE RECENT UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDED SOUTHEAST FROM THE MS RIVER QLCS.
SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED
FILLING IN OF THE LINE FROM WHITESIDE COUNTY EAST SOUTHEAST TO
BENTON COUNTY...WITH THIS ENTIRE AXIS MOVING GRADUALLY NORTHEAST THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 3500M AND PWATS
NEARING 2 INCHES...WHICH IS ROUGHLY THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCING CONVECTION. THE COMBINATION OF THE WAA WING OF DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EASTWARD MOVING QLCS COULD
EASILY SUPPORT ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 3 INCHES IN LESS THAN 2
HOURS WHICH IS WELL ABOVE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY IN
AREAS WHICH SAW HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD
WATCH ACCURATELY DEPICTS THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA FOR FLASH FLOODING
HEADING INTO THE EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS FOR POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN
EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE CURRENT WATCH.
IZZI
&&
.DISCUSSION...
302 PM CDT
SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A QUIETER DAY TOMORROW. HOWEVER THE PATTERN
REMAINS BUSY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
AWAY FROM THE LAKE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LEE...OGLE...AND
WINNEBAGO COUNTIES THROUGH TONIGHT.
REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
WE ARE UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
MOVING NORTHEAST AND IS CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER JAMES BAY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A
BROAD LOW IS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA ROUGHLY FROM MOLINE THROUGH CENTRAL IL AND
THEN BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WE HAVE RECOVERED
NICELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AMDAR SOUNDINGS SHOWING ELEVATED CAPE.
SHEAR IS WEAK AT BEST AS IS GENERAL STORM FLOW. SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE FORMED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MI. IN
GENERAL THE STORMS ARE SLOW MOVERS AROUND 15 MPH. WITH PWAT VALUES
STILL HIGH IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...ANY GIVEN STORM WILL PRODUCE A
HEAVY DOWNPOUR. COMBINE THAT WITH THEIR SLUGGISH MOVEMENT AND WE
WILL PROBABLY HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF WATER PROBLEMS TO DEAL WITH.
MAY ALSO SEE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS
BUT ONLY EXPECTING A FEW TO PULSE UP HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SPS
OR WARNING. ORGANIZED STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE WEAK
WIND SHEAR.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE LINE OF STORMS
CURRENTLY OVER IOWA WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR LEE...OGLE...AND WINNEBAGO COUNTIES. GUIDANCE
INDICATES STORM MOTION WILL WEAKEN EVEN FURTHER TONIGHT LEADING TO
EVEN SLOWER MOVING STORMS. ON THE OTHER HAND...GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE
LINE DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THOUGHT ABOUT
EXPANDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EAST TO BOONE AND DEKALB COUNTIES
BUT GIVEN MY UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR EAST THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
GET...DID NOT EXPAND WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
THE LINE CONTINUES TO THE EAST TOMORROW WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS
BEHIND IT. ONCE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFT EAST...TOMORROW LOOKS
LIKE A NICE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE LAKE. A
LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP AREAS NEAR THE LAKE IN THE 70S. FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY COMPLETELY DRY...BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY
FORM AND PUSH INLAND OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THESE LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE REGION SATURDAY BUT IT IS
QUICKLY PUSHED EAST BY A LOW THAT PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. SATURDAY MAY BE DRY AND SIMILAR TO TODAY...A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY MAY BE OVER THE CWA SATURDAY SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. OVERALL THINKING IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE LAKE WITH
ON SHORE FLOW KEEPING AREAS ALONG THE LAKE IN THE 70S.
PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW THAT PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ALONG
THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAIN AS GUIDANCE FEATURES PWATS AROUND 1.8 INCHES.
TEMPS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S AND LITTLE TO NO LAKE COOLING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW COOL IT WILL GET UNDER THE TROUGH. RIGHT NOW
HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S TO UPPER 70S WHICH WOULD BE A NICE BREAK
FROM THE HEAT. KEPT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST
AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH MULTIPLE VORTICITY STREAMERS.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
* TSRA MID/LATE EVENING...WITH ERRATIC WINDS FROM OUTFLOWS.
* POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
* BRIEF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH TSRA.
* FOG/HAZE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF ORD TO MDW WITH MORE
SCATTERED COVERAGE FURTHER SOUTH FROM IKK TO RZL. OUTFLOW FROM
THESE STORMS IS MOVING NORTH ACROSS WILL COUNTY BUT APPEARS TO BE
SLOWING AS IT BUMPS INTO COOLER/MORE STABLE NORTHEAST FLOW. IF
THIS WERE TO CONTINUE NORTH...A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST MAY
OCCUR AT MDW/GYY BUT FAIRLY CONFIDENT IT WILL NOT MOVE THAT FAR
NORTH.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE
TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY EVENING BUT FOCUS SHIFTS TO A LINE OF
TSRA MOVING THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES. ITS CURRENT SPEED/MOVEMENT
WOULD BRING IT INTO THE CHICAGO METRO AREA BY MID EVENING.
ADDITIONAL TSRA ARE NOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS LINE FROM SOUTH
OF SQI TO VYS TO PNT. AND ITS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD FORM A
BROKEN LINE OF TSRA THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING. EITHER WAY TSRA ARRIVING AT THE TERMINALS SOONER
APPEARS TO BE REASONABLE AND MOVED UP TIMING WITH THIS UPDATE BUT
TWEAKS/REFINEMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH LATER FORECASTS. CMS
PREVIOUS 18Z DISCUSSION...
LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE BOTH DISSIPATED WITH ONLY PERIODIC
VFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE BEEN MONITORING
AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS
THIS MORNING...WITH IT WEAKENING AT THIS TIME AS IT IS
ENCOUNTERING A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT
ANY REMAINING SHRA AT THIS TIME TO FURTHER DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOL TO WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE CONFINED WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AND TIED MORE CLOSELY TO A SURFACE
BOUNDARY. ANY DEVELOPMENT COULD POSSIBLY DRAW CLOSE TO THE
TERMINALS...IN PARTICULAR RFD AND DPA...BUT WITH ONCE AGAIN THE
MAJORITY OF ANY DEVELOPMENT TO STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING
AND THEN ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTERACTS WITH THIS BOUNDARY. DID TRY AND FOCUS THE
TIMING/DURATION OF THIS PRECIP TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WITHIN THE TAFS AS WELL AS INCREASING MENTION INTO THE TEMPO AND
PREVAILING GROUPS. CONFIDENCE OF START TIME AND WINDOW FOR BEST
DEVELOPMENT IS HIGHER...BUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH THE END TIME
WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY LINGERING FURTHER INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN EVENTUALLY WEST/NORTHWEST MID DAY FRIDAY. THESE
NORTHWEST WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LAKE BREEZE
INTERACTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE EXCLUDED MENTION OF IT AT
THIS TIME OWING TO IT BEING VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* MEDIUM FOR TSRA TRENDS/TIMING THROUGH LATE EVENING.
* LOW FOR TSRA TRENDS OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
* MEDIUM FOR WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* LOW FOR FOG/HAZE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR WITH PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
210 PM CDT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LAKE TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INTO
FRIDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW...AND FRONTAL ZONE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OVER THE LAKE INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD
AS HIGH DEWPOINT AIR REMAINS OVER THE LAKE. WE WILL...HOWEVER...LET
THE CURRENT FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AS AREA OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS
INDICATE THAT VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED.
THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTEND PERIOD LOOKS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
ACTIVE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME IT
APPEARS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE MORE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE LAKES REGION.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ008-ILZ010 UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
211 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1059 AM CDT
THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE THREAT FOR AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE THIS MORNING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MY
FAR SOUTHERN CWA ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...ARCING NORTHWESTWARD INTO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN
ILLINOIS WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY PRODUCING SOME
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 1.6 INCH PWATS...PER
KDVN 12 UTC RAOB. THESE STORMS LOOK TO MOVE ACROSS SOME OF MY NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THESE ARE ALSO THE
SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 25
KT...SO THEY SHOULD NOT BE OVER A GIVEN AREA TOO LONG. SOME OF THE
LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS OUT OF KMDW INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS ARE MORE
STABLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS..THEREFORE IT APPEARS THAT THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BE TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON TAKING A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PUSHING ACROSS
EASTERN WY...NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...THIS LOOKS TO HELP STEER SOME ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH BEGINS TO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO TONIGHT...IT APPEARS
CONDITIONS WILL BE SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS LIKELY TO BE IN EXCESS OF 1.7 INCHES.
GIVEN THE RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY OUT WEST...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER ROUND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WE HAVE OPTED
TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LEE...OGLE AND WINNEBAGO COUNTIES
THROUGH 12 UTC FRIDAY. WE WILL ASSES THE NEED TO EXPAND THIS WATCH
WITH THIS AFTERNOONS PACKAGE.
AREAS OF FOG...DENSE AT TIMES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE LAKE AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAG THIS FOG
OFF THE LAKE.
KJB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
311 AM CDT
FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME MOVEMENT IN THE PATTERN AS WELL AS MORE
COHERENT FEATURES TO SERVE AS FORCING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTION.
THIS EQUATES TO BETTER FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BIG UPPER LOW STILL
SPINNING TO THE WEST THOUGH IT HAS MOVED NORTHEASTWARD AND IS
CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ALBERTA AND SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. ITS
NORTHWARD SHIFT HAS ALLOWED FOR THE RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF IT TO SHARPEN
OVER THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER NORTHEAST
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW IS OVER QUEBEC AND EASTERN ONTARIO AFTER
SETTLING SOUTHWARD. THIS LEAVES THE LOCAL AREA UNDERNEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE WITH NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE WAVES HELPING TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT
THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHED SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TO JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA AND INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
EARLY MORNING...LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST IOWA TO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
TO INDIANA. LEE/OGLE COUNTIES CONTINUE TO SEE NEARLY STATIONARY
CONVECTION OVER THEIR WESTERN PORTIONS WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF UP TO
10 INCHES AS OF 3 AM. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO REGENERATE AND WILL
LIKELY DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE FOCUS
MAY BE SHIFTING JUST TO THE WEST BUT TI DOES APPEAR THAT IT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS LEE/OGLE FOR A FEW HOURS YET. ANOTHER AREA OF
STORMS OVER FAR NORTHEAST IOWA HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF LOOSE
ORGANIZATION AS A PROGRESSIVE COMPLEX AS IT MOVES OR PROPAGATES
SOUTHWARD...THOUGH IT IS AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS OUT FROM REACHING
THE CURRENT CONVECTION. OTHERWISE MORE SCATTERED STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST IL THROUGH
DAYBREAK.
REST OF TODAY...THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD WHILE THE EASTERN CANADA HIGH PUSHES
SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE REGION THOUGH IT
SHOULD LOSE SOME OF ITS FOCUS. CURRENT WARM ADVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND WEAKENING
LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS. CURRENT ONGOING SLOW MOVING OR STATIONARY
CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN THROUGH MID MORNING AS THIS FORCING
WEAKENS. HOWEVER...SOME OVERRUNNING/WARM ASCENT WILL STILL BE
OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT SO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON
CHANCES LOOK LOW OVERALL BUT WEST AND SOUTHWEST AREAS WILL RETAIN
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH AROUND 1.9 INCHES AND STORM
MOVEMENT WILL PROBABLY STILL BE SLOW GIVEN THE WEAKENING UPPER FLOW
UNDER THE RIDGE...SO MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN BUT MAY BE
RATHER ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE EAST TO
NORTHEAST SO COOLER LAKE AIR WILL BE PUSHING INLAND. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AT THE LAKEFRONT THEN RISE INTO THE 70S
WORKING INLAND...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA...THOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP THINGS A LITTLE COOLER. IN
ADDITION...WITH MOIST DEWPOINTS FROM MICHIGAN SPREADING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE LAKE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND IT MAY CREEP INLAND A SHORT
DISTANCE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT LATEST OBS/WEB CAMS SHOW MINIMAL IF
ANY INLAND PUSH THUS FAR. WILL MENTION FOG NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE FOR TODAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AND LIFT INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA BY
EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BUT A
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH EASTWARD AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT REACHING THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT THAT
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LATER THIS
EVENING OR TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS ASCENT INCREASES...WITH THE
FRONT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
LATER FRIDAY LEADING TO A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR BUT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO REMAIN HIGH...WITH ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH BUT DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE BY EVENING. WILL NEED TO BETTER EVALUATE THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AREAS BUT THE
PRECIP TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND COVERAGE MAY
NOT BE SOLID. WESTERN AREAS ALONG THE I-39 CORRIDOR MAY NEED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT IF CONVECTION LOOKS MORE ROBUST AND MOVEMENT
SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY THINKING.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...A MUCH MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK RIDGING WILL BE
OVERHEAD. THE FORMERLY LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKEN OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE OFF THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST WHICH WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE AND
WORKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE LOCAL AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN
HOW THE UPPER FLOW EVOLVES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WAVE TRACKS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND TRIES TO PHASE WITH A STRONGER TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES...IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE PATTERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACTIVE WITH PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. INITIALLY IT WILL BE DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE ZONAL FLOW...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
TROUGH DRIVING PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW IT
EVOLVES. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL FOR COOLER AIR TO WORK INTO
THE REGION BY MID WEEK AS A LARGER SCALE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE
MIDWEST AND POINTS EAST.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* REDEVELOPING FOG/HAZE THIS EVENING.
* SHRA/TSRA BECOMING MORE PROBABLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
* MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE BOTH DISSIPATED WITH ONLY PERIODIC
VFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE BEEN MONITORING
AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS
THIS MORNING...WITH IT WEAKENING AT THIS TIME AS IT IS
ENCOUNTERING A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT
ANY REMAINING SHRA AT THIS TIME TO FURTHER DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOL TO WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE CONFINED WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AND TIED MORE CLOSELY TO A SURFACE
BOUNDARY. ANY DEVELOPMENT COULD POSSIBLY DRAW CLOSE TO THE
TERMINALS...IN PARTICULAR RFD AND DPA...BUT WITH ONCE AGAIN THE
MAJORITY OF ANY DEVELOPMENT TO STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING
AND THEN ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTERACTS WITH THIS BOUNDARY. DID TRY AND FOCUS THE
TIMING/DURATION OF THIS PRECIP TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WITHIN THE TAFS AS WELL AS INCREASING MENTION INTO THE TEMPO AND
PREVAILING GROUPS. CONFIDENCE OF START TIME AND WINDOW FOR BEST
DEVELOPMENT IS HIGHER...BUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH THE END TIME
WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY LINGERING FURTHER INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN EVENTUALLY WEST/NORTHWEST MID DAY FRIDAY. THESE
NORTHWEST WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LAKE BREEZE
INTERACTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE EXCLUDED MENTION OF IT AT
THIS TIME OWING TO IT BEING VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH FOG/HAZE THIS EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND DURATION.
* LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR WITH PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
210 PM CDT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LAKE TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INTO
FRIDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW...AND FRONTAL ZONE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OVER THE LAKE INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD
OF NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD
AS HIGH DEWPOINT AIR REMAINS OVER THE LAKE. WE WILL...HOWEVER...LET
THE CURRENT FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE AS AREA OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS
INDICATE THAT VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED.
THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTEND PERIOD LOOKS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
ACTIVE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME IT
APPEARS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE MORE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE LAKES REGION.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ008-ILZ010 UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
107 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1054 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2014
Slow moving frontal boundary draped across northern IL is
providing a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly
NW of the Illinois River this morning...with the activity
generally moving northward. Plenty of instability remains to the
south of this boundary remains for at least isolated thunderstorms
beginning in the afternoon as daytime heating maximizes. Have
trimmed chances for precipitation until evening from around
Decatur to Lincoln southward but otherwise short term forecast
looks to be in good shape with hot and humid conditions expected
today. Have sent updates to grids and text forecast products to
follow shortly.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1236 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2014
Shower and thunderstorm activity has moved north of the central IL
TAF sites this afternoon while scattered to broken cumulus has
developed throughout much of central IL with bases generally 3-4
kft AGL. Expect isolated to scattered TSRA development increasing
after 19Z continuing into evening.
Main forecast challenge will remain with timing of convection.
With the pop-up nature of the storms in this environment, it is
challenging to narrow down VCTS-free periods, but kept the TAF
sites dry through 19Z and also for a few-hour period this evening.
Similarly, pinning down periods with MVFR or potentially IFR
visibilities due to brief downpours is also tricky.
Onton
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday
Unsettled weather pattern expected through early next work week
with frontal boundary nearby along with disturbance digging into
the upper level ridge over the southeast states. Very warm and
humid tropical air mass to linger through Monday with cooler temps
by middle of next week along with lower humidity levels.
Showers and thunderstorms have mainly been staying north of
central IL so far tonight over northern parts of IL/IN with just
very isolated convection from I-74 north to I-80. 1006 mb low
pressure over east central SD has warm front over central IA into
northern IL north of I-74 but south of I-80 nearing Lacon. Muggy
temps in the 70s over much of central IL in warm sector while
Lacon and Pontiac north of front were cooler 68F. Despite deep
tropical moisture in place and unstable air mass, a weakening low
level jet and lack of an upper level disturbance along with warm
front lifting north of central IL has kept most of central IL dry
during the night. RAP and HRRR models show isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop over central IL during the
day mainly after 15Z/10 am and convection could push frontal
boundary back south of I-74. Have higher pops as day progresses
with highest pops over IL river valley and lowest in southeast IL
but still chance pops there this afternoon. SPC keeps slight risk
NW of IL over IA though there is a 5% risk of damaging winds and
large hail this afternoon and evening due to very unstable air mass
with CAPES peaking from 2-3k j/kg this afternoon. Another very
warm and humid day with highs in the upper 80s to around 90F.
Muggy dew points in the lower 70s to give afternoon heat indices
peaking in mid to upper 90s with highest readings in southeast IL.
Not quite as hot as past two days due to more cloud cover and
convection around this afternoon.
Have likely chances of showers and thunderstorms northern areas
tonight with chance pops south of I-72. Most models show some qpf
tonight with low level jet better than this past night though not
terribly strong over central IL. Also have a short wave moving
east across IL so feel more confident with higher pops tonight and
shifting into eastern IL on Friday. Highs in the upper 80s Friday
with southeast IL near 90F and muggy dew points in the lower 70s
still. SPC does not have a slight risk over IL Friday but can not
rule out an isolate strong storm over especially over eastern IL
Friday afternoon. Lingering 20-30% chance of convection Friday
evening south of I-72 as frontal boundary pushes SE of central IL.
Then looks like a break in convection chances overnight Friday
night into Sat. Very warm again Sat with highs in the upper 80s to
near 90F and dew points holding around 70F.
LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday
Weak high pressure over the great lakes region Saturday to shift
east Saturday night and Sunday with southerly tropical flow
reestablished over IL and returning chances of showers and
thunderstorms overnight Saturday night and Sunday though less of a
chance over eastern/SE IL closer to retreating ridge. Best chances
of convection appears to be Monday afternoon over IL river valley
and over rest of central/SE IL Monday night and Tue as stronger
upper level trof digs over the Midwest and cold front track SE
through IL. Drier air finally returns later Wed into Thu along
with cooler temperatures as weak high pressure settles into IL.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
106 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1059 AM CDT
THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE THREAT FOR AN
ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE THIS MORNING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MY
FAR SOUTHERN CWA ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...ARCING NORTHWESTWARD INTO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN
ILLINOIS WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY PRODUCING SOME
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 1.6 INCH PWATS...PER
KDVN 12 UTC RAOB. THESE STORMS LOOK TO MOVE ACROSS SOME OF MY NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THESE ARE ALSO THE
SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LAST NIGHT. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 25
KT...SO THEY SHOULD NOT BE OVER A GIVEN AREA TOO LONG. SOME OF THE
LATEST AMDAR SOUNDINGS OUT OF KMDW INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS ARE MORE
STABLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS..THEREFORE IT APPEARS THAT THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES NORTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BE TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON TAKING A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PUSHING ACROSS
EASTERN WY...NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...THIS LOOKS TO HELP STEER SOME ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH BEGINS TO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO TONIGHT...IT APPEARS
CONDITIONS WILL BE SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS LIKELY TO BE IN EXCESS OF 1.7 INCHES.
GIVEN THE RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY OUT WEST...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER ROUND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WE HAVE OPTED
TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LEE...OGLE AND WINNEBAGO COUNTIES
THROUGH 12 UTC FRIDAY. WE WILL ASSES THE NEED TO EXPAND THIS WATCH
WITH THIS AFTERNOONS PACKAGE.
AREAS OF FOG...DENSE AT TIMES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE LAKE AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO DRAG THIS FOG
OFF THE LAKE.
KJB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
311 AM CDT
FINALLY STARTING TO SEE SOME MOVEMENT IN THE PATTERN AS WELL AS MORE
COHERENT FEATURES TO SERVE AS FORCING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTION.
THIS EQUATES TO BETTER FORECAST CONFIDENCE THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BIG UPPER LOW STILL
SPINNING TO THE WEST THOUGH IT HAS MOVED NORTHEASTWARD AND IS
CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ALBERTA AND SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. ITS
NORTHWARD SHIFT HAS ALLOWED FOR THE RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF IT TO SHARPEN
OVER THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER NORTHEAST
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW IS OVER QUEBEC AND EASTERN ONTARIO AFTER
SETTLING SOUTHWARD. THIS LEAVES THE LOCAL AREA UNDERNEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE WITH NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE WAVES HELPING TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AT
THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHED SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TO JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA AND INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
EARLY MORNING...LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST IOWA TO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
TO INDIANA. LEE/OGLE COUNTIES CONTINUE TO SEE NEARLY STATIONARY
CONVECTION OVER THEIR WESTERN PORTIONS WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF UP TO
10 INCHES AS OF 3 AM. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO REGENERATE AND WILL
LIKELY DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE FOCUS
MAY BE SHIFTING JUST TO THE WEST BUT TI DOES APPEAR THAT IT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS LEE/OGLE FOR A FEW HOURS YET. ANOTHER AREA OF
STORMS OVER FAR NORTHEAST IOWA HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF LOOSE
ORGANIZATION AS A PROGRESSIVE COMPLEX AS IT MOVES OR PROPAGATES
SOUTHWARD...THOUGH IT IS AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS OUT FROM REACHING
THE CURRENT CONVECTION. OTHERWISE MORE SCATTERED STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST IL THROUGH
DAYBREAK.
REST OF TODAY...THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD WHILE THE EASTERN CANADA HIGH PUSHES
SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE REGION THOUGH IT
SHOULD LOSE SOME OF ITS FOCUS. CURRENT WARM ADVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND WEAKENING
LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS. CURRENT ONGOING SLOW MOVING OR STATIONARY
CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN THROUGH MID MORNING AS THIS FORCING
WEAKENS. HOWEVER...SOME OVERRUNNING/WARM ASCENT WILL STILL BE
OCCURRING OVER THE FRONT SO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON
CHANCES LOOK LOW OVERALL BUT WEST AND SOUTHWEST AREAS WILL RETAIN
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH AROUND 1.9 INCHES AND STORM
MOVEMENT WILL PROBABLY STILL BE SLOW GIVEN THE WEAKENING UPPER FLOW
UNDER THE RIDGE...SO MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN BUT MAY BE
RATHER ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE EAST TO
NORTHEAST SO COOLER LAKE AIR WILL BE PUSHING INLAND. EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AT THE LAKEFRONT THEN RISE INTO THE 70S
WORKING INLAND...WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA...THOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP THINGS A LITTLE COOLER. IN
ADDITION...WITH MOIST DEWPOINTS FROM MICHIGAN SPREADING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE LAKE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND IT MAY CREEP INLAND A SHORT
DISTANCE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT LATEST OBS/WEB CAMS SHOW MINIMAL IF
ANY INLAND PUSH THUS FAR. WILL MENTION FOG NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE FOR TODAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW AND LIFT INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA BY
EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BUT A
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH EASTWARD AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT REACHING THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT THAT
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LATER THIS
EVENING OR TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS ASCENT INCREASES...WITH THE
FRONT ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT FRIDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
LATER FRIDAY LEADING TO A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR BUT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO REMAIN HIGH...WITH ONLY VERY SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH BUT DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BE IN
PLACE BY EVENING. WILL NEED TO BETTER EVALUATE THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AREAS BUT THE
PRECIP TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND COVERAGE MAY
NOT BE SOLID. WESTERN AREAS ALONG THE I-39 CORRIDOR MAY NEED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT IF CONVECTION LOOKS MORE ROBUST AND MOVEMENT
SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY THINKING.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...A MUCH MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK RIDGING WILL BE
OVERHEAD. THE FORMERLY LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE WEAKEN OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE OFF THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST WHICH WILL HAVE SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE AND
WORKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE LOCAL AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN
HOW THE UPPER FLOW EVOLVES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WAVE TRACKS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND TRIES TO PHASE WITH A STRONGER TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES...IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE PATTERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACTIVE WITH PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. INITIALLY IT WILL BE DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE ZONAL FLOW...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
TROUGH DRIVING PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW IT
EVOLVES. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL FOR COOLER AIR TO WORK INTO
THE REGION BY MID WEEK AS A LARGER SCALE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE
MIDWEST AND POINTS EAST.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* REDEVELOPING FOG/HAZE THIS EVENING.
* SHRA/TSRA BECOMING MORE PROBABLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
* MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER ANY HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE BOTH DISSIPATED WITH ONLY PERIODIC
VFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE BEEN MONITORING
AREA OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS
THIS MORNING...WITH IT WEAKENING AT THIS TIME AS IT IS
ENCOUNTERING A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT
ANY REMAINING SHRA AT THIS TIME TO FURTHER DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOL TO WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE CONFINED WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AND TIED MORE CLOSELY TO A SURFACE
BOUNDARY. ANY DEVELOPMENT COULD POSSIBLY DRAW CLOSE TO THE
TERMINALS...IN PARTICULAR RFD AND DPA...BUT WITH ONCE AGAIN THE
MAJORITY OF ANY DEVELOPMENT TO STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING
AND THEN ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTERACTS WITH THIS BOUNDARY. DID TRY AND FOCUS THE
TIMING/DURATION OF THIS PRECIP TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WITHIN THE TAFS AS WELL AS INCREASING MENTION INTO THE TEMPO AND
PREVAILING GROUPS. CONFIDENCE OF START TIME AND WINDOW FOR BEST
DEVELOPMENT IS HIGHER...BUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH THE END TIME
WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY LINGERING FURTHER INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN EVENTUALLY WEST/NORTHWEST MID DAY FRIDAY. THESE
NORTHWEST WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH LAKE BREEZE
INTERACTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE EXCLUDED MENTION OF IT AT
THIS TIME OWING TO IT BEING VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH FOG/HAZE THIS EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND DURATION.
* LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR WITH PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
304 AM CDT
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...THE SAG BACK SOUTH AGAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE PRESSURE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ008-ILZ010 UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ080-LMZ366-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-
LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-
LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1117 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1054 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2014
Slow moving frontal boundary draped across northern IL is
providing a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly
NW of the Illinois River this morning...with the activity
generally moving northward. Plenty of instability remains to the
south of this boundary remains for at least isolated thunderstorms
beginning in the afternoon as daytime heating maximizes. Have
trimmed chances for precipitation until evening from around
Decatur to Lincoln southward but otherwise short term forecast
looks to be in good shape with hot and humid conditions expected
today. Have sent updates to grids and text forecast products to
follow shortly.
Onton
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 630 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2014
Warm front currently draped over KPIA/KBMI with variable winds
underneath, which will become more southwest over the next couple
hours as the front lifts northward a bit.
Main forecast challenge will remain with timing of convection.
With the pop-up nature of the storms in this environment, it is
challenging to narrow down VCTS-free periods, but kept the TAF
sites dry through 15Z and also for a few-hour period this evening.
Similarly, pinning down periods with MVFR or potentially IFR
visibilities due to brief downpours is also tricky. Based on the
HRRR model, have tried to time such afternoon occurrences at
KSPI/KPIA/KBMI, but will hold off further east for now.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday
Unsettled weather pattern expected through early next work week
with frontal boundary nearby along with disturbance digging into
the upper level ridge over the southeast states. Very warm and
humid tropical air mass to linger through Monday with cooler temps
by middle of next week along with lower humidity levels.
Showers and thunderstorms have mainly been staying north of
central IL so far tonight over northern parts of IL/IN with just
very isolated convection from I-74 north to I-80. 1006 mb low
pressure over east central SD has warm front over central IA into
northern IL north of I-74 but south of I-80 nearing Lacon. Muggy
temps in the 70s over much of central IL in warm sector while
Lacon and Pontiac north of front were cooler 68F. Despite deep
tropical moisture in place and unstable air mass, a weakening low
level jet and lack of an upper level disturbance along with warm
front lifting north of central IL has kept most of central IL dry
during the night. RAP and HRRR models show isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop over central IL during the
day mainly after 15Z/10 am and convection could push frontal
boundary back south of I-74. Have higher pops as day progresses
with highest pops over IL river valley and lowest in southeast IL
but still chance pops there this afternoon. SPC keeps slight risk
NW of IL over IA though there is a 5% risk of damaging winds and
large hail this afternoon and evening due to very unstable air mass
with CAPES peaking from 2-3k j/kg this afternoon. Another very
warm and humid day with highs in the upper 80s to around 90F.
Muggy dew points in the lower 70s to give afternoon heat indices
peaking in mid to upper 90s with highest readings in southeast IL.
Not quite as hot as past two days due to more cloud cover and
convection around this afternoon.
Have likely chances of showers and thunderstorms northern areas
tonight with chance pops south of I-72. Most models show some qpf
tonight with low level jet better than this past night though not
terribly strong over central IL. Also have a short wave moving
east across IL so feel more confident with higher pops tonight and
shifting into eastern IL on Friday. Highs in the upper 80s Friday
with southeast IL near 90F and muggy dew points in the lower 70s
still. SPC does not have a slight risk over IL Friday but can not
rule out an isolate strong storm over especially over eastern IL
Friday afternoon. Lingering 20-30% chance of convection Friday
evening south of I-72 as frontal boundary pushes SE of central IL.
Then looks like a break in convection chances overnight Friday
night into Sat. Very warm again Sat with highs in the upper 80s to
near 90F and dew points holding around 70F.
LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday
Weak high pressure over the great lakes region Saturday to shift
east Saturday night and Sunday with southerly tropical flow
reestablished over IL and returning chances of showers and
thunderstorms overnight Saturday night and Sunday though less of a
chance over eastern/SE IL closer to retreating ridge. Best chances
of convection appears to be Monday afternoon over IL river valley
and over rest of central/SE IL Monday night and Tue as stronger
upper level trof digs over the Midwest and cold front track SE
through IL. Drier air finally returns later Wed into Thu along
with cooler temperatures as weak high pressure settles into IL.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
100 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT TO KSLN TO JUST WEST OF KINGMAN. THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AT A SLOW PACE. CLOUDS FINALLY CLEARING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS IN EASTERN KANSAS HAVE MOVED
OUT.
WATCHING TO SEE JUST HOW MUCH HEATING WILL OCCUR IN THE CLEARING
AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL AT
BEST...IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SEVERE LOOKING LESS LIKELY.
LAST SEVERAL HRRR AND RAP RUNS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT. AS STATED...WILL WATCH TO SEE HOW
CAPES RESPOND IN THE CLEARING AREA. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST AS IS
UNTIL OBSERVED TRENDS SUGGEST OTHERWISE.
COOK
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER OKLAHOMA COULD SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE
FRINGES OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AROUND DAYBREAK...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
VEERS OUT. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST KANSAS WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR RE-NEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
DAYTIME HEATING OF THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL MAKE FOR VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND ADEQUATE SHEAR ALOFT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS OUT AGAIN. OTHERWISE THE WEATHER
PATTERN LOOKS TO CALM DOWN FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON
FRIDAY/SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT SIGNAL FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON..THEN ROLL EASTWARD
OFF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY AS A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. THE UPPER WAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MCS ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF KANSAS HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND WE WILL LOWER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER THE BOUNDARY COULD TRY AND MIGRATE
BACK NORTHWARD BY MID-WEEK FROM SO WE WILL KEEP SOME SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONFINED TO SOUTHERN KANSAS.
JAKUB
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT TO KSLN TO JUST WEST OF KINGMAN. THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AT A SLOW PACE. CLOUDS FINALLY CLEARING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS IN EASTERN KANSAS HAVE MOVED
OUT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SMALL CHANCE OF TSRA
REMAINS. CONFIDENCE GETTING WORSE THOUGH WITH THIS. THINKING BEST
CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THESE SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS GUSTING
TO 20 KNOTS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. VFR CIGS/VSBYS.
THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
COOK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 86 69 91 70 / 40 40 10 10
HUTCHINSON 88 68 92 70 / 30 40 10 10
NEWTON 85 69 90 69 / 30 40 10 10
ELDORADO 82 69 89 69 / 40 40 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 80 69 89 70 / 40 40 10 10
RUSSELL 86 66 94 68 / 10 20 10 10
GREAT BEND 88 67 93 68 / 20 20 10 10
SALINA 88 68 93 70 / 20 30 10 10
MCPHERSON 88 68 91 69 / 30 40 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 81 70 88 70 / 50 40 20 10
CHANUTE 82 69 88 70 / 40 40 20 10
IOLA 83 69 88 70 / 30 40 20 10
PARSONS-KPPF 81 70 88 70 / 40 40 20 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
316 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
ISOLD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION
WHERE LATE SPRING SUN HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGEST CONVECTION ATTM IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH
ALONG THE TN/KY STATE LINE. HOWEVER CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY IS PUTTING OUT A FAIRLY CLEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA IN A COUPLE
HOURS. THAT MAY BE ONE OF THE MAIN FOCUSES OF ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PREDOMINANT BOUNDARY THAT APPEARS
PRIMED FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF OUR CWA...STRETCHING ROUGHLY FROM MOUNT
STERLING TO JUST NORTH OF PIKEVILLE. ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER REFLECT
AREAS WITH BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING RAINFALL. ALSO MADE SOME TWEAKS
TO AFTERNOON HIGHS. CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS MAKING AFTERNOON HIGHS A
BIT TRICKY TO FORECAST...AND ESPECIALLY HOURLY TRENDS. BUT IN GENERAL
HIGHS SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO ADVERTISED LEVELS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1103 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
MORNING CONVECTION HAS LAID OUT SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BULK OF
CONVECTION SO FAR THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THESE
BOUNDARIES. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OR DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO RIDE
ACROSS THE REGION DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER MIDWEST RIDGING.
AXIS APPEARS TO BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY FROM ABOUT CVG TO PIT...AND NE
FROM THERE. SLIGHT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN COMBINATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TO ACT AS TRIGGERS SHOULD BE ALL IT TAKES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION TO FIRE. FOCUS OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY THOUGH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY
SHOULD ANY OUTFLOWS REACH THAT FAR SOUTH. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD DISPLAY SOME STRONG CHARACTERISTICS AND CAN NOT RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. HWO APPEARS TO HANDLE THE THREAT
ADEQUATELY. COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY RAINERS...ESPECIALLY AS WE GET
INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. PWATS ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGHS
AND STORM MOTION LOOKS LOW ENOUGH...5-10KTS. FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY HIGH AROUND 14-15K AS WELL. SO WARM WATER PROCESSES COULD
BE A FACTOR AS WELL.
UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH LATEST THOUGHTS AND TO REFLECT LATEST
TRENDS IN CONVECTION IN OUR NORTH. TWEAKED HIGHS A BIT...BUT MAY
BRING THEM DOWN A BIT MORE IN THE NORTH WITH NEXT UPDATE TO REFLECT
ONGOING CONVECTION. CONCENTRATED POPS IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
OUR CWA. EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT BOUNDARIES COULD TRACK A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. HRRR HINTS AT THIS POSSIBILITY AS
WELL. IN GENERAL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SCATTERED BUT EFFECTIVE POPS MAY
BE HIGHER...CLOSER TO LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE
WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
AND WITH THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FORMATION AND STORM EVOLUTION
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS WAS FOR A SERIES OF
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS TO MOVE OUT OF INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THAT BEING SAID...A
COMBINATION OF THE LATEST GFS AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT WAS USED TO
FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE INITIAL GROUP OF STORMS
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CLIP OUR COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 EARLY
TODAY. AFTER THAT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG IT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS
BOUNDARY AND WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH WARM...MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR THAT
IS ALREADY IN PLACE TO SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER A DROP OFF IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...THE
FRONT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS
STRONG LIFT ALONG THE FRONT BEGINS TO OCCUR. THE ROUNDS OF STORMS WE
SEE TODAY AND FRIDAY COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TODAY TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ONLY BE DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACK EDGE OF A DEAMPLIFIED
RIDGING PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD /12Z SATURDAY/...WITH
A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE
FORM OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
LINGER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA. THE NAM IS THE
ONLY MODEL AT THIS POINT WHICH DOES NOT PUT PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA...SO HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD FOR THE MODEL. EXPECT BEST COVERAGE TO BE IN THE
MORNING...THEN TAPERING OFF AS THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY PUSHES
SOUTHWARD. CHANCES WILL LINGER LONGEST OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE
STATE WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE
ZONAL. THIS WILL ELIMINATE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY...THOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD
POP UP SOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY MONDAY AS WELL...WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REMAINS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...BOTH THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE ONLY
SHOWING DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR SE COUNTIES...WHILE THE GFS IS
SHOWING A VAST AMOUNT OF PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
SYNOPTIC SET UP...WOULD CHOSE TO SIDE CLOSER TO THE ECWMF...WITH THE
GFS PULLING IN AN UNREALISTIC AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
BY LATE MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
BEGIN TO DEEPEN...PULLING A DEEPENING TROUGH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD...EXPECT A SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY TO IMPACT THE REGION
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MODELS AT THIS POINT ARE CONTINUING TO
DISAGREE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...SO WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE ALLBLEND
FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF...BRINGING IN A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
FROM TUESDAY WELL INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT
BECOMES MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED ACROSS KENTUCKY. A BRIEF BREAK
MIGHT BE FELT SOMETIME EARLY THURSDAY...HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL BE FAST TO BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FINISH OUT THE 7 DAY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD
BRIEFLY PRODUCE IFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS. BUT THREAT IS NOT WIDESPREAD NOR
WOULD THUNDERSTORMS FREQUENT TERMINALS ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY TEMPO
GROUPS ATTM. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF THROUGH THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. AREAS THAT RECEIVE ANY RAIN WILL PROBABLY SEE A
BIT OF FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. BUT KEPT AIRPORT TERMINALS IN FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS
TO HAVE LATCHED ONTO MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND CONSEQUENTLY MORE
PESSIMISTIC NUMBERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
FRIDAY WITH A BIT WIDER COVERAGE LIKELY. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. THEY WILL SLACKEN TONIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...AGAIN AROUND 10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
211 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
ISOLD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION
WHERE LATE SPRING SUN HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGEST CONVECTION ATTM IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH
ALONG THE TN/KY STATE LINE. HOWEVER CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY IS PUTTING OUT A FAIRLY CLEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA IN A COUPLE
HOURS. THAT MAY BE ONE OF THE MAIN FOCUSES OF ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PREDOMINANT BOUNDARY THAT APPEARS
PRIMED FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF OUR CWA...STRETCHING ROUGHLY FROM MOUNT
STERLING TO JUST NORTH OF PIKEVILLE. ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER REFLECT
AREAS WITH BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING RAINFALL. ALSO MADE SOME TWEAKS
TO AFTERNOON HIGHS. CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS MAKING AFTERNOON HIGHS A
BIT TRICKY TO FORECAST...AND ESPECIALLY HOURLY TRENDS. BUT IN GENERAL
HIGHS SHOULD BE PRETTY CLOSE TO ADVERTISED LEVELS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1103 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
MORNING CONVECTION HAS LAID OUT SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BULK OF
CONVECTION SO FAR THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THESE
BOUNDARIES. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OR DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO RIDE
ACROSS THE REGION DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER MIDWEST RIDGING.
AXIS APPEARS TO BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY FROM ABOUT CVG TO PIT...AND NE
FROM THERE. SLIGHT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN COMBINATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TO ACT AS TRIGGERS SHOULD BE ALL IT TAKES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION TO FIRE. FOCUS OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY THOUGH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY
SHOULD ANY OUTFLOWS REACH THAT FAR SOUTH. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD DISPLAY SOME STRONG CHARACTERISTICS AND CAN NOT RULE
OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO. HWO APPEARS TO HANDLE THE THREAT
ADEQUATELY. COULD ALSO SEE SOME HEAVY RAINERS...ESPECIALLY AS WE GET
INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. PWATS ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGHS
AND STORM MOTION LOOKS LOW ENOUGH...5-10KTS. FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY HIGH AROUND 14-15K AS WELL. SO WARM WATER PROCESSES COULD
BE A FACTOR AS WELL.
UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH LATEST THOUGHTS AND TO REFLECT LATEST
TRENDS IN CONVECTION IN OUR NORTH. TWEAKED HIGHS A BIT...BUT MAY
BRING THEM DOWN A BIT MORE IN THE NORTH WITH NEXT UPDATE TO REFLECT
ONGOING CONVECTION. CONCENTRATED POPS IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
OUR CWA. EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT BOUNDARIES COULD TRACK A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. HRRR HINTS AT THIS POSSIBILITY AS
WELL. IN GENERAL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SCATTERED BUT EFFECTIVE POPS MAY
BE HIGHER...CLOSER TO LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
THE MODELS WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE
WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
AND WITH THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FORMATION AND STORM EVOLUTION
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS WAS FOR A SERIES OF
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS TO MOVE OUT OF INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THAT BEING SAID...A
COMBINATION OF THE LATEST GFS AND SREF MODEL OUTPUT WAS USED TO
FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE INITIAL GROUP OF STORMS
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CLIP OUR COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 EARLY
TODAY. AFTER THAT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A WAVE MOVING ALONG IT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS
BOUNDARY AND WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH WARM...MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR THAT
IS ALREADY IN PLACE TO SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER A DROP OFF IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...THE
FRONT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS
STRONG LIFT ALONG THE FRONT BEGINS TO OCCUR. THE ROUNDS OF STORMS WE
SEE TODAY AND FRIDAY COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS TODAY TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ONLY BE DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
AND ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND A DEEP CLOSED LOW
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST INTO AND POSSIBLY SOUTH OF THE CWA TO END THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL OFFER A SLIGHT REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT HEAT...ALTHOUGH THE
POST FRONTAL AIR MASS SHOULD OFFER SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS TO END
THE WEEKEND. THIS REPRIEVE SHOULD BE BRIEF...HOWEVER.
THE MID LEVEL WAVE WORKING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY SHOULD COMBINE WITH
THE SAGGING BOUNDARY TO BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND LINGERING INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THE 0Z GFS IS LIKELY SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK LEADING TO THE HIGH GFS QPF NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY EARLY
IN THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SATURDAY. PW IS EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO NEAR 1.8 INCHES...OR GREATER THAN THE 75TH PERCENTILE AND
STEERING WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING...SO LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER 2 INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
WHICH MIGHT LEAD TO SOME HYDRO ISSUES. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO AND PLACEMENT IS LOW AND WE HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING/HEIGHT RISES SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTION
BECOMING MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...BUT
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST AND
RETURN LOW SHOULD ALREADY BE RETURNING A MORE HUMID AIR MASS NORTH IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. WITH THIS FROM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT....THOUGH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
MOST FAVORED CLIMATOLOGICALLY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD
BRIEFLY PRODUCE IFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS. BUT THREAT IS NOT WIDESPREAD NOR
WOULD THUNDERSTORMS FREQUENT TERMINALS ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY TEMPO
GROUPS ATTM. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF THROUGH THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. AREAS THAT RECEIVE ANY RAIN WILL PROBABLY SEE A
BIT OF FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. BUT KEPT AIRPORT TERMINALS IN FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS
TO HAVE LATCHED ONTO MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND CONSEQUENTLY MORE
PESSIMISTIC NUMBERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
FRIDAY WITH A BIT WIDER COVERAGE LIKELY. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS. THEY WILL SLACKEN TONIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...AGAIN AROUND 10 KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
130 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2014
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1231 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2014
Another update to account for the convection that has developed
across central and far southern KY. Utilizing the experimental CIMSS
NearCast model, the axis of greater instability and moisture will
continue to flow over much of the forecast area through this
evening. Other hi-res models are continuing to hone in on southern
IN and northern KY through the Bluegrass region for the primary
focus for diurnally-driven convection. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track.
Issued at 941 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2014
Just did a minor update primarily to the PoPs and sky cover to
include HRRR model guidance (for PoPs) as it seems to have a good
handle on where the focus of convection will be. We`ll have a bit of
a lull through much of the rest of this morning but look for
scattered thunderstorms across much of the forecast area this
afternoon as the sun heats the surface up. The greatest coverage
should be in southern Indiana and northern Kentucky into the
Bluegrass region.
Issued at 635 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2014
A few showers have popped up this morning over the northern
Bluegrass. These showers have developed along the remnants of the
outflow boundary from last night`s convection. Expect to continue to
see storm development along this boundary today. Just made some
small changes to the pops this morning and trended the forecast
toward current observations.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2014
The storms that prompted the Severe Thunderstorm Watch earlier have
significantly weakened this morning. In addition, these storms look
to stay north of the forecast area. Thus, the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch has been dropped. For early this morning, it is not out of the
question that a shower or possibly thunderstorm will pop up across
portions of north central KY, but they should be fairly isolated.
Through the remainder of the day, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop late this morning into the
afternoon hours as we warm up. The best chance for storms looks to
be across portions of southern IN and north central KY as the
boundary from tonight`s convection as well as a boundary from
convection yesterday evening sag southward across the region.
Further to the south and west, there will be less of a focusing
mechanism, but some storm development is certainly possible in the
unstable atmosphere this afternoon.
There may be a lull in activity this evening, though given the
multiple boundaries across the area and convection possibly moving
in from the west, a few showers or storms may hang around. On Friday
a weak cold front will approach the area from the northwest. Ahead
of this boundary, precipitable water values will rise to near 2
inches. Given plenty of instability, moisture, and the approaching
boundary, storm chances will be better on Friday than today. Given
the high PWAT values, these storms have the potential to produce
torrential rainfall.
As for temperatures, they will remain hot and muggy. Highs will be
in the upper 80s to lower 90s, though today will likely be a degree
or two cooler than yesterday and tomorrow should be a degree or two
cooler than today. Lows tomorrow morning will be in the lower 70s.
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2014
A weak surface low will cross the Ohio Valley Friday night/Saturday
morning along with some weak upper level vorticity and PWATs pooling
near two inches. So, will continue with scattered PoPs for Friday
night and Saturday.
Saturday night through Monday night moisture will decrease to near
normal for mid/late June and forcing at the surface and aloft will
be weak. Can`t rule out some spotty summertime convection but will
keep PoPs very low.
Will probably see highs mainly in the 80s over the weekend as upper
ridge flattens and 850 temps drop to around 17C. Temps may inch up
a tick or two on Monday as we get into southwest low level flow
ahead of a weak cool front extending from the Great Lakes to the Big
Bend. Monday will probably be the warmest day of the long term.
Tuesday and Tuesday night that weak front will push into the area
and give us our best chance of thunderstorms in the long term.
Winds could get a little gusty Tuesday afternoon...maybe in the
20-25 mph range.
Wednesday is a question mark as model solutions diverge
significantly. For now will lean more toward the Euro`s slower
passage of the weak front, as is typical for this time of yer, and
will continue with a small PoP in the forecast.
Afternoon highs should settle back into the 80s for Tuesday and
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2014
Thunderstorms are popping up across portions of central KY this
afternoon in a very broken line stretching from in between LEX to
BWG. There will be increased chances for scattered thunderstorm
activity as the day wears on and therefore continued VCTS mention
for all three terminals. Due to the pulse nature of the storms, have
foregone any tempo groups, especially considering the uncertainty of
whether or not convection will directly impact the terminals. Will
update with an amendment as necessary.
Winds will be at their strongest through this afternoon before dying
off after sunset tonight. The general direction will vary from out
of the W to SW throughout much of the TAF period, right around 10
knots or so through this evening then dropping below 5 knots
overnight. Any storm that comes within range of the terminals could
cause locally higher gusts and quick wind shifts.
For the pre-dawn hours on Friday, have continued mention of
haze/light fog for LEX and BWG but given the cloud cover expected to
linger through the overnight hours, don`t have too much confidence
of this panning out, especially if rain doesn`t fall in the terminal
areas today. Tomorrow afternoon will see increased chances for
thunderstorms across central KY, more so than today as a front
approaches from the north.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........lg
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......13
Aviation.......lg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
128 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
ANOTHER ACTIVE NIGHT IS WINDING DOWN...AND FOR THE SECOND NIGHT IN A
ROW WE SAW SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS RESULT FROM
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY NIGHT WAS MANKATO...AND LAST NIGHT
IT WAS WOOD LAKE...WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW 6 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL...AND MUCH OF THAT CAME WITHIN THE FIRST 3 HOURS OF IT STARING
TO RAIN. UNFORTUNATELY...THE ATMOSPHERE THAT HELPED ALLOW THAT TO
HAPPEN WITH PWATS AOA 1.75" AND FREEZING LEVELS ABOVE 15K ARE STILL
IN PLACE AND WILL REMAIN SO UNTIL A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY BACK OVER
ERN SODAK CLEARS THE AREA TONIGHT.
FOR THIS MORNING...THE RAP SHOWS THE LLJ BECOMING BIFURCATED...WITH
ONE SEGMENT SAGGING SE ACROSS IA TOWARD NRN IL...WHILE ANOTHER
SECTION WILL BE ANGLING FROM SRN MN BACK TOWARD ERN NODAK. YOU CAN
SEE THE IMPACTS OF THIS LLJ SLIT OVER THE LAST HOUR ON REGIONAL
RADARS AS ACTIVITY HAS REALLY STARTED TO BECOME FOCUSED OVER NE IA.
THE SEGMENT OF THE LLJ DEVELOPING FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST IS
HELPING FORCE AN INTENSE LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY RACING NORTH
ACROSS ERN SODAK. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE MPX CWA IS THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS OVER ERN MN WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS WRN WI THIS
MORNING AS IT LOSES ITS LLJ FEED...WITH THE WRN LLJ SEGMENT
FOCUSING ACTIVITY INTO NW MN THIS MORNING. THIS WILL SEND US INTO
ANOTHER PRECIP BREAK PERIOD THAT WILL START BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS BREAK WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED. AS THE SODAK
FRONT WORKS INTO WRN MN THIS AFTERNOON...CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT
YET ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR A RWF/AXN LINE
BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z THAT WILL THEN WORK EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MOST CAMS SHOW THIS SCENARIO PLAYING OUT...BUT THE SPC AND
ARW WRFS SHOW VERY LITTLE CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE FRONT.
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST WEIGHS HEAVILY ON THE CONVECTING
MAJORITY...YOU CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE MORE LIMITED
SOLUTIONS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION TONIGHT CAN OVERTURN THE
ATMOSPHERE. IF ENOUGH OVERTURNING OCCURS...THEN THOSE LIMITED
ACTIVITY SOLUTIONS MAY BE CORRECT. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF THE
MID LEVEL WARM AIR CAP...PREFER THE SOLUTIONS THAT SHOW ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THINKING THE THREAT...THOUGH STILL
THERE...WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ONE BIG
REASON IS THAT THE 5K TO 6K J/KG OF MLCAPE IN THE WARM SECTOR SEEN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A MUCH MORE MODEST 1K TO
2K J/KG TODAY. IN ADDITION...0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE RANGING FROM 35-40
KTS NEAR THE MN/SD BORDER /CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW/ TO LESS THAN 20
KTS OVER WRN WI. THE ONE THING THAT IS BETTER TODAY THAN WHAT WE SAW
YESTERDAY ARE THE DYNAMICS AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH APPROACHES
WRN MN BY 00Z WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70+ KT LLJ. MORE
BOUNDARY PARALLEL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON FAVORS A LINEAR CONVECTIVE
MODE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...AS THE SMALLER CAPES AND LINEAR MODE SHOULD BOTH HELP TO
SUPPRESS THE HAIL AND TORNADO THREATS /AS COMPARED TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS/.
THOUGH UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES...A FRONT LIKE THIS AFTERNOONS
WOULD NOT TYPICALLY GARNER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...THIS IS NOT A
TYPICAL SITUATION AS ALL BUT THE NRN TIER OF THE MPX CWA HAS SEEN 4
TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE FRIDAY ON TOP OF WHAT WAS ALREADY ONE OF
THE WETTEST STARTS TO A YEAR ON RECORD. WITH ONLY A SMALL BREAK IN
THE HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED...EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH OUT IN
TIME TO 6Z TONIGHT WEST OF I-35 AND TO 12Z TONIGHT EAST OF I-35. THE
WATCH WAS ALSO EXPANDED NORTH TO INCLUDE THE AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED 3+ INCHES OF RAIN SINCE FRIDAY. ALSO ENDED THE WATCH AT 15Z
FOR THE FAR WRN COUNTIES...AS THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO START OVER OR JUST EAST OF THOSE COUNTIES...SO CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THOSE
COUNTIES AFTER THIS MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
A DRIER POST FRONTAL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SURFACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WI. WE
THINK THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE AT SUNSHINE AND MODEST W-SW FLOW
COMBINED WITH 16-19 C AT 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA /WESTERN WI SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MN/. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD BUILD SOUTH AND MOISTURE RETURN
SHOULD BRING PWATS BACK UP NEAR 1.5-1.75" IN THE FAR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA. THE RETURN OF WEAK 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
FGEN BACK ACROSS NORTHERN NE AND EASTERN SD COULD MEAN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAKE IT INTO WESTERN MN ON SATURDAY...BUT THE BETTER
FOCUS IS IN THE STATES THAT BORDER MN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE
PRECIP SIGNAL ON SUNDAY IS MUDDLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN
INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE AND OMEGA...BUT WE CAN`T PIN DOWN AN AREA
TO FOCUS POPS/WEATHER AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS LOW AND THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF
STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. DURING THIS TIME...THE
UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN CAMPED OUT TO OUR NORTHWEST DRIFTS SLOWLY
NORTH WITH TIME AND THE LONG WAVE FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL /SLIGHT
RIDGING/. BOTH THE 19.00Z GFS/ECMWF AND TO SOME DEGREE NAM HAVE A
FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE PSEUDO-ZONAL FLOW ARRIVING
IN THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY. THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE STRETCHED OUT ACROSS KS/IA/WI WHICH SHOULD BE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z GFS IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN COOLER AIR TO THE AREA AND
ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE BY TUESDAY. 00Z GFS NOW SHOWING 850 TEMPS
OF 8C TO 10C FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 00Z EURO AND EVEN THE
PREVIOUS ENSEMBLE RUNS STILL HAS 850 TEMPS OF 12C TO 14C DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. THIS IS A BIG CHANGE FROM PAST GFS RUNS.
SO...MODEL CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLES ARE THE WAY TO GO. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE ECMWF HAS ALSO SHOWED AGREES IVE COLD
ADVECTION WITH A RUN OR TWO IN THE PAST 2-3 DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS BEGINNING TO SHOW THE WHITES OF
ITS EYES OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT THIS
LINE TO FILL IN AND EXPAND EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z. PREVALENT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS WHEN THE STORMS ARRIVE ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS A
RISK...ALBEIT LOW...FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WITH THIS LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD SEE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY MOVE OUT OF
MN BY 06 AND WEST CENTRAL WI BY 09Z. COULD SEE SOME BR IN THE WAKE
OF THE SHRA/TS AS WINDS DECREASE BELOW 5 KTS AND COUPLE WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED AFTER 15Z FRIDAY.
KMSP...
EXPECT THE NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TS TO IMPACT KMSP BETWEEN 22Z AND
02Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF
THE STORMS. CIGS SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS FOR THIS
EVE...THEN BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. MVFR ISO SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. MVFR SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS ESE 5 KTS BECMG WNW 5-10KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MNZ057>061-065>069-
073>077-082>085-091>093.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MNZ062-063-070-078.
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WIZ023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1251 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
Water vapor imagery, as well as 08z RAP analysis indicates a fairly
potent trough over the northern Rockies, with southwesterly flow
over the Central Plains and over the forecast area. A shortwave
trough rotating around the larger low has sparked thunderstorms
across eastern Colorado and central Kansas, which have since moved
into central Nebraska. A decent veered low level jet is currently
nosing into southern Iowa and could produce enough convergence to
produce some early morning convection across southern/central Iowa,
and perhaps northern Missouri. The scenario in which the forecast
area gets any appreciable precip during the morning hours on
Thursday is pretty low confidence, but will cover the potential with
SChc PoPs through 12z and Chc PoPs through 18z. The better chance
for precipitation will come later this afternoon and this evening,
as the axis of a shortwave trough pivots through the area. This will
likely provide enough mid level ascent to produce scattered to
widespread showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon hours. A
warm and very moist atmosphere will lend itself to a high amount of
instability, ranging from 3000 to 3500 J/kg of SB Cape. With the
lack of any really good veering winds with height and lack of any
appreciable speed increase with height the deep layer shear on
Thursday will be rather anemic, generally in the 20 to 30 kt range.
The large instability will lend itself to strong updrafts, but with
the chance for competing updrafts and lack of wind shear feel the
severe threat for Thursday will be marginal. While scattered to
widespread thunderstorms will be possible later this evening, the
severe threat should be relegated to isolated coverage, with gusty
winds, heavy rain, lighting, and perhaps hail up to half dollar in
size will be the main hazards as we go forward into the evening.
Given the potential for scattered to broken clouds through the day,
with perhaps some rain, took temperatures for Thursday afternoon
down a couple degrees, with max temps in the lower to middle 80s.
The trough axis should clear the forecast area by late tonight,
shunting the better lift for precipitation formation further to the
east. Thus have a gradual decrease in PoPs through the overnight
hours, with the best chances across central Missouri toward the
overnight hours on Thursday. Expect Friday and Saturday to remain
mostly dry across the area, however with one or more MCS`s rolling
through the northern plains through the weekend it will remain
possible for the northern half of the CWA to perhaps see the
southern end of any MCS activity through Sunday morning. Latest
ECMWF paints a trough, embedded within the mostly zonal flow,
rolling through the area Sunday afternoon, perhaps bringing the next
best chance for rain Sunday afternoon through the evening. Showers
and thunderstorms could remain in the area through Monday afternoon,
as a cold frontal boundary will eventually slide through the area
erasing the chances for rain. The timing of this front on Monday
will dictate how long the thunderstorms stick around, but the
general feeling at this point is that they should be at least
through western Missouri by Monday evening, moving through central
Missouri by early Tuesday morning. Thereafter, expect a generally
dry forecast with perhaps a few bouts with isolated to scattered
convection through the mid to late week period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
Messy situation with a vorticity max lifting northeast towards west
central MO ahead of a weak cold front extending from western IA
through central KS. Isolated convection already redeveloping ahead
of the vorticity max over east central KS and west central MO.
Too much uncertainty on evolution of convection to use much more than
VCTS for KMCI/KMKC. KSTJ closer to the cold front and thus better
chance for more organized storms later this afternoon.
Should go to VFR conditions and dry with light winds later this
evening.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
1012 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2014
.UPDATE...
SLOW MOVING DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MONTANA THIS MORNING.
WEAK ENERGY WAS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND PRODUCING WEAK SHOWERS
OVER FROM BILLINGS NORTHWEST. THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AS
THE MORNING WEARS ON. MORE ENERGY UPSTREAM WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
WAS PRODUCING SHOWERS FROM LEWISTOWN TO GREAT FALLS TO CUT BANK.
THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO VERY SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST AND THUS
THE ENERGY WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN ZONES TODAY. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR MORNING ACTIVITY AND HIT THE NORTHERN
ZONES A LITTLE HARDER TODAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LIVINGSTON
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS THIS
AFTERNOON AND MIXING WILL TAKE OVER. WOULD EXPECT THE WINDS TO
TURN MORE WESTERLY BUT REMAIN STRONG...WHICH IS HANDLED VERY WELL
IN THE EXISTING FORECAST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD
SHAPE. TWH
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND FRI...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT. TROWAL ON WEST
SIDE OF LOW IS WRAPPING SOME PCPN IN OUR FAR NW...MAINLY OVER THE
MTNS AS LOW LEVELS ARE DOWNSLOPED. AREA OF PV WILL DROP OUT OF
SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND OFFER DECENT Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS IT
ROTATES AROUND THE LOW THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT
SHOWER COVERAGE TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTH. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PER THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND RELATIVELY
COLD AIR ALOFT...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WE WILL BE
EXPERIENCING HEIGHT RISES THRU THE DAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PUSH
SLOWLY EAST. THUS AS WE WARM THE MID LEVELS EXPECT AFTERNOON CAPE
VALUES TO BE VERY MODEST. OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST TODAY IS
ENERGY PUSHING ACROSS WYOMING. THERE IS FAIRLY STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE OCCURRING CURRENTLY IN FAR SOUTHEAST MT IN RRQ OF 110
KT H3 JET. THIS ALONG WITH AN AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
850MB CONVERGENCE MAY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN TSTMS IN THE
CARTER COUNTY AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE HRRR AND RAP ARE
BOTH SUGGESTING. ALSO... REMARKABLY FOR MID JUNE...LIVINGSTON IS
GAPPING WITH WIND GUSTS HAVING ALREADY TOPPED 50 MPH TONIGHT. WE
SHOULD NOT SEE HIGHER GUSTS THAN THIS...AND BY 15Z LOW LEVELS WILL
START TO BECOME MIXED...BUT NONETHELESS HAVE RAISED WIND SPEEDS
ALONG OUR WESTERN FOOTHILLS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS PERIOD OF GAP
FLOW. MIXED WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT LIVINGSTON THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THROUGH TONIGHT AS DOWNSLOPE
GRADIENTS REMAIN IN PLACE. FINALLY...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB
TODAY PER THE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS AND GOOD MIXING. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S...AND HAVE TWEAKED EXPECTED HIGHS
UP A BIT.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW EXITS...
FINALLY...AND RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. FRIDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY
DRY AND WARMER DAY WITH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...
THE WARMEST WE HAVE SEEN IN OVER A WEEK. BACKING MID LEVEL FLOW
WITH WEAK PACIFIC ENERGY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LATE DAY WEAK
CONVECTION IN OUR WEST...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SUGGESTING SOME DECENT WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS NEAR SUCH PLACES
AS LIVINGSTON AND HARLOWTON. TONIGHTS MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED A
BIT STRONGER WITH THE PASSAGE OF A NIGHTTIME SHORTWAVE AND SFC
COLD FRONT...SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS OUR WEST AND NORTH
THRU LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...WED...
OVERALL CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS TOWARD A SLIGHTLY
COOLER SOLUTION THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THE MAIN REASON FOR
THIS TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND IS
DRIVEN BY MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE PASSAGES. FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE
NEXT WEEK...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE
GFS BUILDS IN RIDGING...WHILE THE EC AND CANADIAN HAVE TAKEN A
SHARP TREND TOWARD HOLDING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. DECIDED TO LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARD THE EC/GEM SOLUTIONS IN
THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WHETHER THE
GFS TRENDS IN THAT DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES.
AS FOR THIS WEEKEND...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BOTH LOOK TO BE VERY
PLEASANT DAYS WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. ON SATURDAY...COOLED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY AS THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE PULLS THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BETWEEN THE EASTERLY FLOW BRINGING IN MORE
MOISTURE AND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EXPECT TO SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY MARGINAL
AT THIS POINT...SO ONLY EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.
COOLED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY...GIVEN
A BETTER SURGE OF COOL AIR BEHIND THE MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE. 700MB
TEMPERATURES COOL FROM +8C ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...TO +4C ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE TROUGH OVERHEAD SUNDAY...INSTABILITY
WILL BE BETTER...WITH SHOWALTER INDICES -1 TO -2 OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA. THUS EXPECT TO SEE A LITTLE BETTER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON SUNDAY. OVERALL...DONT SEE MUCH CONCERN
FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS POINT...DUE TO MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. CHURCH
&&
.AVIATION...
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITION WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
IN ADDITION...SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30-35KTS WILL BE
LIKELY FOR THE KLVM AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 075 054/083 056/081 056/076 055/079 056/083 056/083
3/T 20/U 22/T 23/T 33/T 33/T 33/T
LVM 073 048/080 047/078 048/075 048/077 049/081 050/079
4/T 12/T 23/T 33/T 33/T 33/T 33/T
HDN 076 050/084 052/084 054/079 053/080 054/085 056/085
3/T 20/U 12/T 23/T 33/T 33/T 33/T
MLS 074 054/083 058/083 058/078 057/080 058/083 060/085
3/T 31/U 21/U 22/T 22/T 22/T 11/B
4BQ 074 051/083 054/082 056/078 055/079 054/082 055/085
2/T 21/U 12/T 33/T 32/T 22/T 12/T
BHK 072 052/080 055/080 055/075 054/076 054/079 056/082
2/T 31/U 12/T 22/T 22/T 22/T 11/U
SHR 073 047/082 050/081 052/075 051/077 052/081 053/082
2/T 11/U 02/T 23/T 33/T 34/T 43/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
338 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
TIGHT VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING OVER WESTERN SD AT THIS TIME HAS
PRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WAS WHAT THE HRRR MODEL WAS
INDICATING MOST OF THE DAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE BECOME
SEVERE WITH HAIL AND EVEN REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS/LANDSPOUTS. NOT
SURPRISING GIVEN COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND TIGHT ROTATION OF VORT
SPINNING ACROSS. MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY RANGE FROM 500 TO 1000
J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER WESTERN SD.
ALTHOUGH...BETTER SHEAR VALUES EXIST OVER CENTRAL SD. HI RES
MODELS SHOW SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA AS LONG
AS THE SUN IS UP. HAVE INCLUDED POPS THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.
CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS ON FRIDAY...EXPECT
HIGHS TO BE RATHER WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 80S.
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY INCREASES TO 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WITH 40 TO 50
KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LOW LEVEL SHEAR NOT ALL TOO IMPRESSIVE.
COULD BE SEEING SOME SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH FAIRLY FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...PUTTING THE CWA IN A POTENTIAL SPOT FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN MAY SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AFFECTING KABR AND KATY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE
CIGS WILL HAVE LIFTED AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION...HAVE NOT
MENTIONED ANY STORMS IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
409 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)
Have a developing concern for heavy rainfall potential across
our southern and possibly some central counties tonight. This
is in association with a compact MCV, which appears on satellite
imagery near Eagle Pass along the Rio Grande. This feature will
move north-northwest and should enter our far southern counties
(Sutton or Crockett Counties) toward Midnight. Low-level jet
developing tonight will aid in low-level moisture transport.
The Satellite Precipitation Estimates product from the NESDIS
Satellite Analysis Branch has more details on the potential for
locally heavy rain with this feature. Have increased PoPs across
much of the southern half of our area, with a mention of locally
heavy rainfall. The HRRR and TTU WRF both show development
of convection across our soutern and some of our central counties
tonight. PoPs may need to be raised further as radar trends
become more apparent.
To the northwest of our area, a gravity wave entering northwestern
Texas ahead of a cold front could initiate thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening. The HRRR and TTU WRF models show a band of
convection approaching our northwestern counties after 9 PM. With
uncertainty in how much shower/thunderstorm coverage will occur
away from the MCV, carrying lower PoPs across the rest of our area
tonight.
For Friday, carring low PoPs across West Central Texas. Models show
a mid/upper level shear axis over our area, with precipitable water
values between 1 and 1.6 inches. Little change in the temperature
regime is expected.
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Our area will remain under a weak mid/upper level shear axis through
Saturday, as upper ridge begins to build over northwest Mexico into
the Desert Southwest, and the upper high weakens over the lower
Mississippi Valley. Have a slight chance PoP lingering across our
western counties on Saturday.
During the first half of next week, the upper high is progged to
build over northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U.S., and weak
northwest flow aloft will develop over our area. The forecast 850 mb
temperatures indicate a gradual warming trend with daytime
temperatures for our area. Weak surface cold front is progged to sag
south of the Red River and stall Tuesday evening, The 12Z GFS
suggests potential for convective complext to approach our area from
the northwest Tuesday night. Did not make changes to our PoPs next
week, but will monitor model trends.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 73 90 72 91 72 / 20 20 5 10 10
San Angelo 73 91 72 92 72 / 30 20 10 10 10
Junction 73 90 71 91 71 / 40 20 10 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
310 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST CONUS TODAY. WEST OF THE RIDGE...GENERAL WEAK TROUGHING
RESIDES ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT
RELATE CLOSELY TO THE POSITION OF THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. CONVECTION MAY AT TIMES BECOME
ENHANCED BY MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS CONVECTIVE VORTICES LIFTING
NORTH OUT OF MEXICO...OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUSHING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THE
1.75 INCH PWATS IN PLACE. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH WEAK WINDS
ALOFT THE LACK OF SHEAR COMBINED WITH THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL NUDGE ITS WAY IN FROM THE EAST
FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER AIR WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT BECAUSE THERE IS
STILL AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. ONE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING EAST FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND THE BASE OF THE
NORTHEAST TROUGH. THIS ENERGY WILL SEND A FRONT SOUTHWARD TO NEAR
THE RED RIVER MONDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE NORTHERN 2 ROWS OF COUNTIES MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL
PROBABLY STALL IN THIS AREA AND LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AROUND MID
WEEK...PASSING CLOSER TO NORTH TEXAS AND BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA-WIDE NEXT WEDNESDAY. FOR THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY RETURN TO THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN WITH A STRENGTHENING MID AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME LOW-END RAIN CHANCES LATE
NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1248 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014/
/18Z TAFS/
NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A WEAKNESS ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AND GULF OF MEXICO. SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS ALOFT CONTINUE TO
RIDE NNE UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
LINGERING BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I-35.
THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN MORE STABLE THAN A WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE AIRPORTS EAST. FEEL THAT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND
WEAK LIFT WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
READILY NORTH TO THE EAST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER THE WEST. A
FEW COULD REACH STRONG OR BRIEFLY SEVERE LIMITS WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND VERY GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS. ANY STORM ACTIVITY WOULD
WANE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING... THOUGH SOME
WEAKENING ACTIVITY FROM WEST TEXAS COULD GET CLOSE TO ALLIANCE AND
MEACHAM AIRPORTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CHALLENGE WAS TO WHETHER OR NOT TO INSERT VCTS AT AIRPORTS
TODAY AND IF AND WHEN ANY MVFR CIGS WOULD OCCUR BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
THE HRRR HAS DONE ABOUT AS WELL AS ANY MODEL REGARDING THE CURRENT
MESOSCALE SET UP AND WILL INSERT VCTS THROUGH 23Z FOR ALL THE
AIRPORTS. TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER THAT AND WILL
NOT HAVE ANY MENTION OF VCTS OR VCSH. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER AND EFFECTS FROM ANY OUTFLOW COULD PLAY A
ROLE MVFR DEVELOPMENT BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP A
SHORT 2-3 HR WINDOW ON EITHER SIDE OF 12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 75 93 75 94 76 / 20 10 10 10 5
WACO, TX 72 91 72 92 74 / 10 10 5 10 5
PARIS, TX 72 91 71 91 72 / 20 10 10 10 5
DENTON, TX 73 93 72 93 74 / 30 10 10 10 5
MCKINNEY, TX 72 93 73 94 73 / 20 10 10 10 5
DALLAS, TX 75 92 75 93 77 / 20 10 5 10 5
TERRELL, TX 72 94 75 95 73 / 20 10 5 10 5
CORSICANA, TX 72 91 73 91 73 / 10 10 5 10 5
TEMPLE, TX 72 90 71 91 73 / 10 10 5 10 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 71 91 71 92 72 / 30 10 5 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1248 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A WEAKNESS ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AND GULF OF MEXICO. SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS ALOFT CONTINUE TO
RIDE NNE UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
LINGERING BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF I-35.
THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN MORE STABLE THAN A WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM THE AIRPORTS EAST. FEEL THAT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND
WEAK LIFT WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
READILY NORTH TO THE EAST OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER THE WEST. A
FEW COULD REACH STRONG OR BRIEFLY SEVERE LIMITS WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND VERY GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS. ANY STORM ACTIVITY WOULD
WANE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING... THOUGH SOME
WEAKENING ACTIVITY FROM WEST TEXAS COULD GET CLOSE TO ALLIANCE AND
MEACHAM AIRPORTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE CHALLENGE WAS TO WHETHER OR NOT TO INSERT VCTS AT AIRPORTS
TODAY AND IF AND WHEN ANY MVFR CIGS WOULD OCCUR BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
THE HRRR HAS DONE ABOUT AS WELL AS ANY MODEL REGARDING THE CURRENT
MESOSCALE SET UP AND WILL INSERT VCTS THROUGH 23Z FOR ALL THE
AIRPORTS. TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER THAT AND WILL
NOT HAVE ANY MENTION OF VCTS OR VCSH. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER AND EFFECTS FROM ANY OUTFLOW COULD PLAY A
ROLE MVFR DEVELOPMENT BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP A
SHORT 2-3 HR WINDOW ON EITHER SIDE OF 12Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.
05/
&&
.UPDATE...
FORECASTS WERE UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS OVER NORTHWEST COUNTIES
THIS MORNING WHERE OUTFLOW FROM A WEAKENING MCS OVER OKLAHOMA
APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM BOWIE DOWN
TO POSSUM KINGDOM. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN LATE THIS MORNING WITH
REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST AS IS WITH WIDESPREAD LOW POPS ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL
AIRMASS CONVECTION.
30
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014/
THIS MORNING...UPPER LOW SITS AT ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN/MONTANA
TRIPLE POINT...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST. BROAD FLAT RIDGE RUNS FROM
EAST TX ACROSS CAROLINAS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER LA/AR BORDER BY FRIDAY BUT UNTIL THEN THERE REMAINS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS.
ONGOING SHOWERS NEAR COMANCHE APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED...ROOTED
ABOVE 12000 FT. BY THIS AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE ROOTED AT THE
SURFACE. PWATS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES. CAPE
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM ABOUT 700 FROM THE NAM TO 1700 FROM THE GFS.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL HAVE LOW HAIL POTENTIAL BUT GUSTY DOWN BURST WINDS
WILL REMAIN A THREAT...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
STORMS MAY LINGER PAST SUNSET IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NORTH TX.
NORTH TX SHOULD REMAIN DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. BY MONDAY THE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH INTO
MEXICO AND A SERIES SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AT THIS POINT TIMING EACH TROUGH IS PROBLEMATIC...BUT HAVE
SPREAD LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 93 75 93 75 94 / 20 20 0 5 5
WACO, TX 92 72 91 72 92 / 10 10 0 5 5
PARIS, TX 90 72 91 71 91 / 10 10 10 5 5
DENTON, TX 91 73 93 72 93 / 20 20 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 91 72 93 73 94 / 20 20 5 5 5
DALLAS, TX 92 75 92 75 93 / 20 20 0 5 5
TERRELL, TX 93 72 94 75 95 / 10 10 0 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 91 72 91 73 91 / 10 10 0 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 92 72 90 71 91 / 10 10 0 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 91 71 91 71 92 / 40 20 0 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1141 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT TAF PACKAGE. THERE CURRENTLY IS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE LAREDO AREA WHICH IS HELPING TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TEXAS/ MEXICO BORDER. THIS LOW
WILL START TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST TODAY. THE LOW IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS
THE SOURCES FOR LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN INHIBITORS TO RAIN
TODAY WILL BE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR AND WEAK RIDGING. CURRENT AMDAR
SOUNDINGS AND OBSERVED CRP/ LCH SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS DRY AIR. THE
RADAR HAS SOME WEAK RETURNS ON IT NOW WITH THINGS REALLY HAVING
TROUBLE GETTING GOING (MOST LIKELY BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR KILLING
UPDRAFTS). THINK THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THE STORY OF THE DAY.
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH MOST RAIN STAYING SHOWER BASED.
STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDER STRIKE HERE OR THERE WITH
THE SEA BREEZE. TOMORROW MORNING THE DRIER AIR ALONG WITH HIGH
CLOUDS WILL HELP TO LIMIT MVFR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME RURAL
SITES POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES. ANY
OF THESE RESTRICTIONS FROM VERY LIGHT FOG SHOULD QUICKLY RECOVER
AFTER SUNRISE. 23
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...WENT AHEAD AND JUST GAVE THE AREA A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. AS TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON...ANTICIPATE SEEING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME STORMS. PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT FROM THE NEARLY STATIONARY
MID/UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST NEAR THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER MIGHT
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE TODAY`S ACTIVITY AS WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TRIES TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AND SHUT
THINGS DOWN. THE 12Z NAM MOS GUIDANCE INSISTS THAT THE RIDGING WILL
WIN OUT WHILE THE HRRR DEVELOPS THE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHALL SEE. 42
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014/
DISCUSSION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
OVERALL JUST A SMATTERING OF MVFR CIGS OVER KUTS/KCXO BUT
OTHERWISE MOST TERMINALS STILL IN THE VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY. MAY SEE
SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP 14-16Z BUT REALLY NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR
A TEMPO GROUP. SHRA ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL AT THE MOMENT
WITH MAYBE SOMETHING FOR LBX/GLS OFF THE GULF. RAPID REFRESH MODEL
AND WRF SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SHRA DURING THE 17-21Z TIME FRAME
BUT HARD TO PINPOINT WHERE EXACTLY. INTEND TO HANDLE ANY
CONVECTION WITH AMMENDMENTS SHOULD ANYTHING IMPACT TERMINALS. LOOK
FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THUR MORNING BUT EXPECT WINDS
TO BE WEAKER.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AN ANALYSIS OF THE 00Z UPPER AIR SURFACES REVEALED A SOUTH-TO-
NORTH 200 AND 300 MB RIDGE OVER SE TX...AND A WEAK 500 MB HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NC TO THE UPPER TX COAST. THERE WAS
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB DUE TO THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE CAROLINAS.
THE FORECAST MODELS BUILD THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER SE TX THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK BEFORE THEN DIGGING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MODEL OUTPUT AND GUIDANCE BOTH FORECAST LESS CHANCES FOR RAIN
TODAY THAN WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP
LESS CAPE AND LOWER PW/S...WITH THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR AND TEXAS
TECH MODELS REFLECTING THIS BY FORECASTING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THE SEA BREEZE MAY
FIGURE MORE PROMINENTLY. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL GO WITH 10 PERCENT
CHANCES NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING AND 20 PERCENT INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SAME SCENARIO LOOKS TO OCCUR ON
FRIDAY...ALBEIT WITH ONLY 10 PERCENT CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE INLAND AREAS.
WITH THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD...BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. THE
GFS AND ECWMF FORECAST A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE TO MOVE AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS FEATURE MAY WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE UPPER
TX COAST AND PROVIDE A MORE MOIST AIRMASS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. BOTH MODELS ALSO DEVELOP AN UPPER TROUGH OVER SE TX DURING
THE EARLY AND MID WEEK PERIOD. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
TIMING...WILL GO WITH ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS DECREASING LATER IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS
ELEVATED IN OFFSHORE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE CLOSER TO
THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE WINDS. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS WITH
2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 93 74 94 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 92 75 94 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 89 80 88 80 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
136 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TONIGHT. UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE BOUNDARY MEANDERS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT THURSDAY...
INITIAL BAND OF BROKEN EARLIER CONVECTION HAS FADED UPON
ENCOUNTERING A BIT MORE STABLE AIR TO THE SE OF THE WESTERN SLOPES
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EARLIER
CONVECTION AND ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN
UPTICK IN COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH/NW BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FLOW
REMAINS DEEP WESTERLY PER MORNING SOUNDINGS SO STILL LIKELY
ENOUGH INTIALLY TO LIMIT EASTWARD ADVANCE ACROSS THE RIDGES. MUCH
STRONGER SHORTWAVE SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER
LATER ON AS MODELS SPILL IT SE WITH SOME INTERSECTION WITH THE
PIEDMONT LEE TROF LATE. MOST OF THIS COVERAGE LIKELY TO RUN AROUND
THE EASTERN DOWNSLOPE WITH A BAND OF STORMS POSSIBLY UNZIPPING
BACK WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA...AND PUSHING SOUTH BY LATE
AFTERNOON UNDER THE VORT TAIL/OUTFLOW. THIS SUPPORTED BY MODIFIED
CAPES PUSHING 3K J/KG AGAIN ESPCLY EAST AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
LIFT AS BETTER DYNAMICS ARRIVE. THUS WILL BE RUNNING WITH LOW
LIKELYS FOR INIT COVERAGE NW...THEN HIGHER CHANCE POPS EAST PER
SHORTWAVE...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH/WEST LATE WHERE THINGS LIKELY
BAND UP A BIT MORE. HAVE LESS POP TODAY IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE
RIDGE IN LIGHT OF A RATHER WELL MIXED WEST WIND INITIALLY AND IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP WHICH MAINTAIN A HOLE IN
COVERAGE CENTRAL SECTIONS UNITL LATE.
HIGHS APPEAR ON TRACK WITH 90-95 EAST GIVEN DOWNSLOPE AND MORE SUN BUT
LIKELY COOLER NW WHERE EARLY CLOUDS/TSRA MAY HOLD HOLD VALUES DOWN
A FEW DEGREES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...
SHORT WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY CROSSES INTO EASTERN
VIRGINIA BY THIS EVENING. FLOW 500 MB CHANGES FROM LIGHT WESTERLY
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE TO NORTHWEST AROUND THE DIGGING UPPER LOW IN
SOUTHEAST CANADA.
BEST Q-V FORCING STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT SHORT WAVE WILL STILL RESULT IN
MORE EXTENSIVE AREAL COVERAGE AND MORE ORGANIZED STORMS COMPARED
WITH THE ISOLATED PULSE CONVECTION OF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AT 2AM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE MARYLAND PANHANDLE INTO
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE LOCATION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AT THE TIME OF PEAK
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE WHERE THE HIGHEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. CLOUDS FROM THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL ALSO LIMIT HEATING IN THE WEST. WILL
HAVE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HIGH
CAPE/LOW SHEAR THROUGH THE EVENING.
SURFACE FRONT AS SEEN IN LIFTED INDEX FORECAST AND PUSHES LEADING
EDGE OF DRIER AIR AND MORE STABLE AIR IN FROM THE NORTH...REACHING
THE NORTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. SHIFT TO DEEPER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL AIDE IN CHANGE OF AIR MASS IN THE PIEDMONT
AND COAST PLAIN BUT SKEPTICAL THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE MODELS DEPICT BY FRIDAY MORNING.
STARTING OUT WITH MORE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN WEST THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL HOLD BACK ON HEATING AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT THURSDAY...
UPPER TROF PUSHES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE WEEKEND...AS
THE RIDGE AXIS DEAMPLIFYS OR FLATTENS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. ON FRIDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE
SLOWLY TRAVELING SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO MOVE INTO NORTH CAROLINA. PLACEMENT
OF THE BOUNDARY IS PROBLEMATIC WITH LIGHT WIND FIELDS AND
CONCERNS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL NOT TRAVEL THAT FAR SOUTH
ESPECIALLY WITH THE 85H THETA-E BOUNDARY REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS FOR CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH LIGHTEST IN THE SOUTHEAST. WONDERING IF EASTERLY
FLOW ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE EASTERN SLOPES WILL RESULT IN MORE
SHOWERS AND LIMITED INSTABILITIES. BELIEVE THAT MODEST
INSTABILITIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD GENERATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY IN THE WEST. WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
A POSSIBLE MESOSCALE COMPLEX COULD TRACK NEAR THE AREA WITH 5H
ISOHEIGHTS ORIENTED NW-SE. ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS
SHOULD TRACK CLOSE TO THE 85H THETA-E BOUNDARY WHICH IS NORTH OF
THE AREA. IN ANY CASE...SCATTERED POSSIBLY STRONG CONVECTION COULD
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
GENERATE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY WITH DISTURBANCE TRACKING
SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINA SHORE.
PLAYED TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY WITH READINGS FROM
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH
VALUES FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE WEST TO AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE
EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SATURDAY FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 90 IN THE PIEDMONT. WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE GFS MOS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH ON SUNDAY INTO
SOUTH CAROLINA. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...WHILE ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. DECREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WITH VALUES
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING PULSE STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
LOOKING BEYOND THE EXTENDED...A COLD FRONT MAY CLEAR THINGS OUT BY
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY UNTIL THIS
COLD FRONT PASSES EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT THURSDAY...
CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPILL EAST
ALONG THE KLWB-KLYH CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDED
DEVELOPMENT ONGOING DOWN THE WESTERN SLOPES TO THE WEST OF KMKJ.
EXPECT THIS TO KEEP PERIODS OF MVFR AT KLWB OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO WITH PERHAPS BRIEF IFR IF A HEAVIER TSRA CROSSES DIRECTLY OVER
THE AIRPORT. SHOULD SEE MOST OF THIS COVERAGE SHIFT SE OF KLWB BY
20Z/4PM. THEN EXPECT STORMS TO FILL IN OUT EAST WITH ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY AROUND KBLF WITH SOME OF THIS
SPREADING EAST TO NEAR KBCB/KROA BEFORE WEAKENING GIVEN THE STRONG
WEST WINDS ATTM. TSRA MAY TEND TO JUMP THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OVER THE PIEDMONT ESPCLY AROUND
KDAN ONCE THE DOWNSLOPE WEAKENS A BIT LATER ON. THUS HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCLUDING A PREVAILING PERIOD OF MVFR IN
SHRA/TSRA WHERE ALREADY ONGOING OR APPROACHING AND VCTS ELSW UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY.
A BACKDOOR FRONT DIPS SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE MASON-DIXON
LINE TONIGHT WHICH WILL INCREASE THE RANGE OF STORMS INTO MORE
SCATTERED AND MULTICELLULAR THIS EVENING ESPCLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS ARE BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS AND FOG
INTO THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DRIER AIR COMING IN AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS WHILE
THE NAM LOWERS MOST CIGS TO IFR/MVFR IN LOW LEVEL NE FLOW BY
MORNING. THINK THIS MAY BE OVERDONE GIVEN SLOWNESS OF THE BOUNDARY
BUT A PERIOD OF LOW CIGS POSSIBLE KLWB EAST TO ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.
BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO GET PUSHED INTO THE FAR SW
SECTIONS FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE STARTS TO SHIFT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE MUCH LESS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH ADDED CONVECTION LIKELY FAR WEST AND NOT INCREASING UNTIL THE
EAST. OTRW THE MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY WILL BE WITH HOW FAST
CONDITIONS TURN VFR AS IF MORE FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT THEN
COULD BE LOCKED INTO AT LEAST MVFR OVER THE EAST UNTIL MIDDAY OR
SO.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE FRONT AND DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE BETTER COVERAGE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK FLOW PATTERN HOLDING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
KEEP THE STORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
SAT/SUN BUT COVERAGE FOR NOW LOOKS A BIT LESS EACH DAY BEHIND THE
PASSING IMPULSE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO RETURN
NORTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS ON MONDAY.
AREAS OF IFR FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON. THE
MOST OPTIMAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS EACH DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
LATE MORNING AFTER FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIFT AND BURN OFF...AND BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION REDEVELOPS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/PM