Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/17/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
343 AM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY ZONAL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONLY
SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
OVERALL WILL KEEP FCST DRY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF HIGH BASED
CONVECTION OVER THE NERN PLAINS THIS EVENING WHERE SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS NERN CO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014
NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH
THIS PACKAGE. MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING A PROGRESSION FROM
DRY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO AN UPPER TROUGH
PASSING WEDNESDAY EVENING TO STRONG UPPER RIDGING BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS SHARPER AND DEEPER THAN
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS. FOR THE TIME BEING WILL JUST STICK
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION SINCE
THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE PASSING OF SOME UPPER DYNAMICS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S. TUESDAY
MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY. THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER TROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONTAL
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS
THAT VEGETATION IS STILL GREEN AND MOIST ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014
VFR THRU TONIGHT. LIGHT SLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
MORE SELY BY LATE MORNING THRU THE EARLY AFTN. THE LATEST HRRR
AND RAP WANT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE WLY FLOW ALOFT BY LATE AFTN
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SWITCH TO WLY BY 20Z LASTING THRU 00Z WHILE
THE NAM AND GFS KEEP WINDS SSE. AT THIS TIME NOT REAL CONFIDENT
ABOUT WIND DIRECTION BY MID TO AFTN. NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME DRAINAGE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1147 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
BROUGHT LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.
ALSO...ENDED PRECIP THREAT FOR KANSAS BORDER AREAS FOR THE
NIGHT. LW
UPDATE ISSUED AT 853 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LW
UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. EL PASO COUNTY RED FLAG WARNING
TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM. STILL WINDY BUT HUMIDITIES HAVE CLIMBED WELL
ABOVE CRITERIA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. LW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
CURRENTLY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST
ACROSS UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH MOST AREAS
GUSTING IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. TEMPERATURES ARE HOT WITH 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG WINDS TO PRODUCE VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ANY
OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE POSTPONED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE TRIED TO GET GOING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BUT HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE THE CONTINUED DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING THE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY STALLED OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE SHOULD START TO PROGRESS SOUTH AROUND 6 PM AND PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE STRONG
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH NORTH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH. THERE IS A
CONCERN THAT WINDS COULD BE STRONGER...IF THEY CAN GET HELP FROM
SOUTHWARD SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. SPEAKING OF CONVECTION...MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND INTO THE PALMER
DIVIDE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AND
DRY LIGHTNING IS A CONCERN. FOR NOW JUST HAVE ISOLATED COVERAGE
OVER THESE AREAS. OVER BACA COUNTY...THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR MODELS
ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER BACA COUNTY AROUND
04Z AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED ACTIVITY THERE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ONCE ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES OR MOVES INTO KANSAS.
SUNDAY...ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR REGION.
EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES GIVEN
THE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. AS FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW THE DISTURBANCE LOOKS TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE
ANY IMPACT ON OUR CWA...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH
WILL DRIFT EASTWARD. NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER SUNDAY EVENING. THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE LOW AND ONLY HAVE SILENT POPS. MAIN
WEATHER STORY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS THE DRY AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. ON MONDAY...GRIDS HAVE ALMOST THE
ENTIRE CWA REACHING THE METEOROLOGICAL CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG
WARNING. HOWEVER...LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES ONLY HAVE FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 226 AND 227 (EL PASO COUNTY) WITH CRITICAL FUELS. DECIDED
NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR ONLY THESE TWO
ZONES AND MID SHIFT CAN PROVIDE PLENTY OF LEAD TIME FOR A HIGHLIGHT.
IF FUELS DO BECOME CRITICAL...FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
LIKELY. ON TUESDAY...WINDS ALOFT ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER...BUT SUSPECT
WINDS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR EXCEED RED FLAG CRITERIA...WITH
HUMIDITIES REMAINING LOW. DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME...PERSONS SHOULD STILL BE VERY CAREFUL
WITH ANY OPEN FLAMES.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH WILL PASS
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
STRONGLY FAVOR KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORMS
WILL VERY LIKELY STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. OTHER CONCERN WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG
WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS... EVEN WITH MINIMAL MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. GRIDS ARE STINGY WITH POPS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...GIVEN THE LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE HIGHER
THAN POP VALUES. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.
FINALLY...HAVE CONCERNS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND
HUMIDITY ON WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM...REGION COULD STILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY COOL ENOUGH FOR
HUMIDITIES TO BE JUST ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA.
.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST AND A
WARM AND DRY RIDGE ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. GFS HAS +20C
TEMPERATURES AT 700MB OB SATURDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HOT
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW STAYS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION FOR
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS COULD PROVIDE
SOME WEAK UPSLOPE TO THE PLAINS...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE EDGE OFF
OF THE HEAT. A MODEST PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALSO MOVE
INTO THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
VERY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN VFR ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...INCLUDING KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES FROM 18Z TO 06Z...WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS LIKELY 21Z TO 03Z. LW
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1126 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LW
UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. EL PASO COUNTY RED FLAG WARNING
TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM. STILL WINDY BUT HUMIDITIES HAVE CLIMBED WELL
ABOVE CRITERIA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. LW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
CURRENTLY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST
ACROSS UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH MOST AREAS
GUSTING IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. TEMPERATURES ARE HOT WITH 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG WINDS TO PRODUCE VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ANY
OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE POSTPONED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE TRIED TO GET GOING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BUT HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE THE CONTINUED DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING THE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY STALLED OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE SHOULD START TO PROGRESS SOUTH AROUND 6 PM AND PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE STRONG
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH NORTH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH. THERE IS A
CONCERN THAT WINDS COULD BE STRONGER...IF THEY CAN GET HELP FROM
SOUTHWARD SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. SPEAKING OF CONVECTION...MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND INTO THE PALMER
DIVIDE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AND
DRY LIGHTNING IS A CONCERN. FOR NOW JUST HAVE ISOLATED COVERAGE
OVER THESE AREAS. OVER BACA COUNTY...THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR MODELS
ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER BACA COUNTY AROUND
04Z AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED ACTIVITY THERE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ONCE ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES OR MOVES INTO KANSAS.
SUNDAY...ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR REGION.
EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES GIVEN
THE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. AS FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW THE DISTURBANCE LOOKS TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE
ANY IMPACT ON OUR CWA...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH
WILL DRIFT EASTWARD. NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER SUNDAY EVENING. THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE LOW AND ONLY HAVE SILENT POPS. MAIN
WEATHER STORY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS THE DRY AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. ON MONDAY...GRIDS HAVE ALMOST THE
ENTIRE CWA REACHING THE METEOROLOGICAL CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG
WARNING. HOWEVER...LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES ONLY HAVE FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 226 AND 227 (EL PASO COUNTY) WITH CRITICAL FUELS. DECIDED
NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR ONLY THESE TWO
ZONES AND MID SHIFT CAN PROVIDE PLENTY OF LEAD TIME FOR A HIGHLIGHT.
IF FUELS DO BECOME CRITICAL...FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
LIKELY. ON TUESDAY...WINDS ALOFT ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER...BUT SUSPECT
WINDS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR EXCEED RED FLAG CRITERIA...WITH
HUMIDITIES REMAINING LOW. DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME...PERSONS SHOULD STILL BE VERY CAREFUL
WITH ANY OPEN FLAMES.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH WILL PASS
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
STRONGLY FAVOR KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORMS
WILL VERY LIKELY STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. OTHER CONCERN WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG
WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS... EVEN WITH MINIMAL MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. GRIDS ARE STINGY WITH POPS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...GIVEN THE LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE HIGHER
THAN POP VALUES. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.
FINALLY...HAVE CONCERNS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND
HUMIDITY ON WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM...REGION COULD STILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY COOL ENOUGH FOR
HUMIDITIES TO BE JUST ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA.
.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST AND A
WARM AND DRY RIDGE ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. GFS HAS +20C
TEMPERATURES AT 700MB OB SATURDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HOT
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW STAYS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION FOR
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS COULD PROVIDE
SOME WEAK UPSLOPE TO THE PLAINS...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE EDGE OFF
OF THE HEAT. A MODEST PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALSO MOVE
INTO THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
VERY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN VFR ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...INCLUDING KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES FROM 18Z TO 06Z...WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS LIKELY 21Z TO 03Z. LW
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
134 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THEN STALL TO THE SOUTH TO CLOSE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER BUILDING RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CLOUD COVER
AT A MINIMUM THIS AFTERNOON.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY REMAIN TOO STRONG FOR SEA BREEZE FORMATION. EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE WITHIN A 1/4 MILE OF THE NYC/NASSAU ATLANTIC COAST VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON PER LATEST RUC AND HRRR - ONCE AGAIN THIS IS
VERY MUCH IN DOUBT.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE FORECAST...SO
HAVE GENERALLY TWEAKED HIGHS UPWARD A DEGREE OR TWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH
MODELS TRENDING TO HIGHER HEIGHTS EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. A
DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MON NIGHT INTO TUE COMBINED WITH A
RETURN FLOW AND THERMAL TROUGH MAY PROVIDE THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. SUBSIDENCE AND
LACK OF DEEP SHEAR WILL KEEP A LID ON ANY STRONG CONVECTION AND
MAY ALL TOGETHER KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.
OTHERWISE...WARM...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS MODERATING
BY TUE INTO THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST AND 85 TO 90 NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC. LOWS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 60S WITH DEW POINTS ALSO
RETURNING TO SIMILAR LEVELS. THUS...A RETURN TO MUGGY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUE. EXPECT HIGHS TUE TO BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
W/NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER
HIGH REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER
LOW DIGGING FROM NRN QUEBEC INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
WED...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON WED AND PASSING
THROUGH BY WED EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS HAS BACKED OFF
IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS SHORT WAVE AS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...
MAINTAINING HIGHER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NE...DELAYING THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL LATE THU. OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS OF
LATE HAS BEEN SLOWER AND WARMER WITH THE HEIGHTS EAST OF THE MS
RIVER VALLEY.
KEPT TUE NIGHT MAINLY DRY...BUT SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/TSTMS ON
WED...WITH CHANCE POP IN THE MORNING AS A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH
BECOMES ESTABLISHED EARLY ON...AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON
PER DIURNAL CLIMATOLOGICAL TREND.
THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH BY WED EVENING AND STALL TO THE
SOUTH/WEST THEREAFTER...POSSIBLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONTINUED
MENTION OF DIURNAL CHANCE POP FOR THU INTO SAT. INSTABILITY LOOKS
LIMITED PER MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SO DID NOT MENTION THUNDER.
ABOVE AVG TEMPS ON WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 90 IN URBAN NE NJ AND NYC...SHOULD FALL BACK CLOSER TO
AVG FROM THU THROUGH SAT. HEAT INDEX VALUES ON WED LOOK TO REMAIN
CLOSE TO ACTUAL TEMPS AND NOT RISE ABOVE 95.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
NW FLOW 8-12 KTS...GENERALLY BETWEEN 310-340 (TRUE). KEWR/KJFK MAY
VARY BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN 290 AND 310 THRU THE AFTN. OCNL GUSTS
PSBL AS WELL THRU 20Z...BUT NOT INCLUDING WITH SUCH A SPORADIC
NATURE. LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IMPACTING ANY
TERMINAL SITES.
FEW-SCT MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS THRU TODAY.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB TONIGHT. CLEARING OF SKIES AS WELL.
NOT INCLUDING PCPN AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A LOW END CHC LIGHT
RAIN MAKES IT TO KSWF RIGHT AROUND 00Z TUE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON...VFR.
.MON NIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
.TUES...VFR.
.WED-FRI...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISH
INTO THIS EVENING. SUB SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY
WEAK. OCEAN SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN/DW
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1242 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THEN STALL TO THE SOUTH TO CLOSE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER BUILDING RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CLOUD COVER
AT A MINIMUM THIS AFTERNOON.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY REMAIN TOO STRONG FOR SEA BREEEZE FORMATION. EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE WITHIN A 1/4 MILE OF THE NYC/NASSAU ATLANTIC COAST VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON PER LATEST RUC AND HRRR - ONCE AGAIN THIS IS
VERY MUCH IN DOUBT.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE FORECAST...SO
HAVE GENERALLY TWEAKED HIGHS UPWARD A DEGREE OR TWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH
MODELS TRENDING TO HIGHER HEIGHTS EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. A
DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MON NIGHT INTO TUE COMBINED WITH A
RETURN FLOW AND THERMAL TROUGH MAY PROVIDE THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. SUBSIDENCE AND
LACK OF DEEP SHEAR WILL KEEP A LID ON ANY STRONG CONVECTION AND
MAY ALL TOGETHER KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.
OTHERWISE...WARM...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS MODERATING
BY TUE INTO THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST AND 85 TO 90 NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC. LOWS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 60S WITH DEW POINTS ALSO
RETURNING TO SIMILAR LEVELS. THUS...A RETURN TO MUGGY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUE. EXPECT HIGHS TUE TO BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
W/NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER
HIGH REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER
LOW DIGGING FROM NRN QUEBEC INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
WED...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON WED AND PASSING
THROUGH BY WED EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS HAS BACKED OFF
IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS SHORT WAVE AS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...
MAINTAINING HIGHER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NE...DELAYING THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL LATE THU. OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS OF
LATE HAS BEEN SLOWER AND WARMER WITH THE HEIGHTS EAST OF THE MS
RIVER VALLEY.
KEPT TUE NIGHT MAINLY DRY...BUT SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/TSTMS ON
WED...WITH CHANCE POP IN THE MORNING AS A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH
BECOMES ESTABLISHED EARLY ON...AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON
PER DIURNAL CLIMATOLOGICAL TREND.
THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH BY WED EVENING AND STALL TO THE
SOUTH/WEST THEREAFTER...POSSIBLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONTINUED
MENTION OF DIURNAL CHANCE POP FOR THU INTO SAT. INSTABILITY LOOKS
LIMITED PER MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SO DID NOT MENTION THUNDER.
ABOVE AVG TEMPS ON WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 90 IN URBAN NE NJ AND NYC...SHOULD FALL BACK CLOSER TO
AVG FROM THU THROUGH SAT. HEAT INDEX VALUES ON WED LOOK TO REMAIN
CLOSE TO ACTUAL TEMPS AND NOT RISE ABOVE 95.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
NW FLOW 10-12 KTS...WITH OCNL GUSTS 18-21 KTS THRU 18Z. LOW
CONFIDENCE FULL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT KJFK/KBDR/KGON/KISP
BACKING WINDS TO A SOUTH FLOW. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WINDS WILL BACK
TO A WNW FLOW 290-300 (TRUE) THIS AFTN. ELSEWHERE...NW FLOW 8-10
KTS FOR THE AFTN THRU 00Z.
FEW-SCT MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS THRU TODAY.
.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...VFR.
.TUE-THU...ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS - MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISH
INTO THIS EVENING. SUB SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY
WEAK. OCEAN SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN/DW
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...MALOIT/JC
HYDROLOGY...DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1007 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE EXCEPT FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH INCREASED POP`S FOR
THE GULF COASTAL ZONE INCLUDING THE NAPLES METRO AREAS. THE
EASTERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS AND EXTENDS THROUGH
A DEEPER LAYER FROM THE SURFACE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS SHOULD
HELP TO MAINTAIN CHANCES OF CONVECTION AND MORE COVERAGE IN THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN ZONES OF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS. AS FOR
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATES THAT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LESS
DRIER AIR IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE AND THE LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS
STEEP AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...THERE IS CERTAINLY
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...MOISTURE SUPPLY AND COOLER MID LEVELS
CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WHICH ARE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014/
AVIATION...
EASTERLY FLOW A LITTLE BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS
REMAINING WEST OF THE PBI/FLL/MIA CORRIDOR AND AFFECT INTERIOR AND
GULF COAST. MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE NORTHWEST, BUT
WILL BECOME MORE ERRATIC LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES PROPAGATING SOUTH AND EAST FROM INITIAL STORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL BKN/OVC CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. /MOLLEDA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014/
.SOME DRIER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THIS
WEEK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...
SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BE EASTERLY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE EAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL FOCUS THE BEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLATED TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS OVER THE METRO AREAS AND THE SCATTERED POPS OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS.
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO REMAIN COOL
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -9C TO -11C
RANGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREATS BEING HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE HIGH OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. DRIER AIR OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THE PWAT VALUES OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TO FALL DOWN TO 1.1 TO 1.2 INCHES BY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS BELOW THE 2 STANDARD DEVIATION OF
1.8 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO THE POPS FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED RANGE
WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
AREAS.
LONG TERM...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST BY THE LONG RANGE MODELS TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS BY END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING
FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE BACK EAST INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR LATE THIS WEEK ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE TO RETURNING
TO THE AREA. SO THE POPS FOR LATE THIS WEEK WILL BE IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS.
MARINE... THE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS TODAY INTO MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WITH THE WIND
DIRECTION BACKING FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY TO A NORTHEAST
DIRECTION BY MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET
OR LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 89 75 88 / 20 20 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 88 78 88 / 20 20 10 10
MIAMI 77 89 77 89 / 20 20 10 20
NAPLES 73 91 73 91 / 20 20 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
558 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
MONDAY. STRONG HEATING MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LOW BECAUSE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND JUST SHALLOW
MOISTURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY WEAK TROUGHING AND SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE FEATURE APPEARS WEAK.
THE MODELS SHOW THE H5 RIDGE BUILDING SUPPORTING MID-LEVEL
CAPPING. MOISTURE APPEARS SHALLOW. ALL OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS HAVE
POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYS JUST ISOLATED
COVERAGE NEAR MAXIMUM HEATING. THE HRRR ALSO HAS JUST ISOLATED
COVERAGE MAINLY IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY GREATER
AND THERE SHOULD BE STRONGER CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA-
BREEZE FRONT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH HIGHS AROUND
90. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE MAY BE WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING AS SHOWN BY THE NAM MONDAY.
THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT MAY ALSO MOVE WELL INLAND. THIS FEATURES MAY
HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT LITTLE COVERAGE BECAUSE OF
CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND JUST SHALLOW MOISTURE. ALL OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING TO DOMINATE DURING
THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE APPEARS A LITTLE
WEAKER LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE MODELS DISPLAY SOME LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN POPS ARE 20 TO 30
PERCENT...WITH THE GREATER CHANCE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY
MORNING FOG AT AGS/OGB.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR FOG AT OGB AND
MVFR/IFR AT AGS TO LINGER UNTIL AROUND 12Z-13Z THIS MORNING. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
152 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING DOWN THE CANADIAN COAST. THIS
LOW IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL PRODUCE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE NEAR LAKE WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN
IDAHO PRODUCING ANOTHER COLD...RAW AND SHOWERY DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. ON WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING AND DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.
VALLE
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CLOSED LOW OVER
THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING AND
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND THE AXIS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND TRANSITION
SE ID INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. PASSING SHORTWAVES OVER THE WEEKEND MAY
BRING BACK THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS.
EP
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. HRRR SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SPREADING INTO EAST IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. NAM IS
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP TODAY...BUT IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
PRECIP TOMORROW MORNING AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS INTO THE PAC NW AND CLOSES OFF A LOW OVER WASHINGTON. MOS
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS AS EARLY AS NOON
TOMORROW...BUT KEEPING SITES VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD. HINSBERGER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE BUILDING UP AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
THAT WILL DROP INTO THE PAC NW TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY THROUGH AROUND MID-WEEK.
WE SHOULD ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MONDAY. THE
UPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED
AFTER WEDNESDAY. HINSBERGER
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1009 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
315 PM CDT
THERE IS A POTPOURRI OF FORECAST CHALLENGES AND ALL OF THEM TIED TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. LIKE A DOMINO EFFECT
MUCH HAS TO DO WITH THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION TONIGHT...AS THAT
WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...AND WHETHER RESULTANT
BOUNDARIES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LINGER...WHICH WILL HAVE
FURTHER EFFECTS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
A SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA WITH A WIDESPREAD
DOME OF HEAT AND HIGH DEW POINT AIR ACROSS THE PLAINS...OHIO
VALLEY...AND SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW IS ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CORRIDOR OF THIS BALMY AIR MASS WHICH
INCLUDES OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS AFTERNOON AN ELONGATED UPPER/MID
LEVEL JET MAX IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS OVERRIDING THE STRONG RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
CENTRAL IL. CORRELATING WITH THIS IS A TIGHTENING INSTABILITY
GRADIENT WHICH IS LIFTING NORTHWARD. JUST NORTH OF THIS GRADIENT
IS THE FAVORED CONCEPTUAL MODEL TRACK OF AN OVERNIGHT STORM
COMPLEX WHICH ARE FAVORED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN
IA THIS EVE.
THIS EVENING...
A CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR THE MO/IA/IL BORDERING INTERSECTION AS OF
300 PM IS ON THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND MAY BE
HELPED BY A MINOR SHORT WAVE/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FESTER THEIR WAY NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THIS EVE. ITS A BIT TOUGH TO TELL WHAT COVERAGE WILL BE...BUT
THIS SYNOPTIC WARM MOIST ADVECTION MAY BECOME BOOSTED ON THE
MESOSCALE ON THE FORWARD FLANK OF WHAT MCS IS EVOLVING. SO COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED EVE DEVELOPMENT NAMELY ACROSS EASTERN IA INTO
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL IL. AS SEEN ON RADAR TRENDS OF THESE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...THE STRONG INSTABILITY OF 2000-3000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE THAT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD CAN LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM THREAT.
OVERNIGHT...
THE STRONG UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE...MAYBE EVEN
MULTIPLE WAVES PER WATER VAPOR...WILL YIELD A LIKELY MCS ACROSS
OR NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER GIVEN MCS PARAMETERS IN PLACE. WITH THE
STRONG MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FEED VEERING AHEAD OF IT AND WITH
ITS OWN COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...THERE SHOULD BE A MORE RAPID
PROGRESSION THROUGH LATER EVE INTO OVERNIGHT. WHICH WAY THIS
PROGRESSES HAS BEEN SOMETHING THAT MODELS HAVE GRADUALLY STARTED
TO TREND MORE SOUTH WHICH AGREES WITH EARLIER THINKING AND MAKES
SENSE WITH 1. THE NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST SLOPING INSTABILITY
GRADIENT 2. THIS GRADIENT KEEPING THAT ORIENTATION ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL IL DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION AND 3. THE 850-300MB
THICKNESSES/FLOW REMAINING EAST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED. BECAUSE OF
THIS HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH
LIKELIES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 2 AM. WHETHER THE MCS SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL DIMINISHES AS IT NEARS THE WI/IL BORDER...THERE STILL
WILL LIKELY BE SOME BACKBUILDING ON ITS SOUTHERN END TOWARD THE
INSTABILITY AND GIVEN ANGLE OF BACKWARD PROGRESSING CORFIDI
VECTORS. NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THIS WITH
CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE...THAT COULD BRING MORE OF
A HEAVY RAIN THREAT...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. SO AS THE SPC
OUTLOOK SHOWS...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS HIGHEST TO OUR
NORTHWEST BUT DOES SLOPE INTO OUR AREA...WITH WINDS BEING THE
GREATEST...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD POOL IS CONTINUING TO DRIVE THE
SYSTEM.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ONLY LOWER-MID 70S WITH DEW
POINTS ASCENDING INTO THE LOWER 70S AREAWIDE.
TUESDAY...
THE MORNING SHOULD FIND AT LEAST CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND/OR WARM-AIR
ADVECTION CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF IF NOT MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE COULD BE DIMINISHING STORMS AS WELL. ALL OF
THIS WOULD LEAD TO A SLOW START ON THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB...BUT
RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED WITH SCATTERING AND MIXING OF VERY WARM
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 20C AND 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 26C. BIAS-
CORRECTED MODEL FORECASTS...WHICH HAVE PERFORMED WELL LATELY AND
TEND TO IN WARMER PATTERNS...ARE SHOWING LOWER TO MID 90S
AREAWIDE. BANKING ON CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE MORNING STORMS IN THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA HAVE UNDERCUT THOSE VALUES THOUGH...BUT
KEEP THE 90S SOUTH OF I-80. OUTFLOW FROM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY COULD FURTHER KEEP TEMPERATURES
SUPPRESSED...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE THERE IS LARGE
BUST POTENTIAL. SO CONFIDENCE ON TUESDAY TEMPERATURES IS LOW. DEW
POINTS ARE THE ONE ELEMENT WHERE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE AND
THOSE WILL BE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S GIVEN THE HOMOGENEOUS
OBSERVATIONS OF THOSE VALUES UPSTREAM. IF AND WHERE TEMPERATURES
REACH OR EXCEED 90...THOSE DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX
READINGS TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO.
A POTENTIAL FOR RE-INITIATION OF CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WOULD
BE TIED TO ANY CONVERGENCE FROM LEFT-OVER BOUNDARIES. A CAP LOOKS TO
BE IN PLACE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM 850MB AIR...HOWEVER A
FOCUS COULD OVERCOME THAT. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS COULD
HAPPEN...BUT TOUGH TO SAY FOR SURE. INCHED UP POPS SLIGHTLY OVER
NORTHERN IL AND THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS...BUT AGAIN EVERYTHING DEPENDS HIGHLY ON HOW TONIGHT
UNFOLDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...
BEING AT THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THE PATTERN REMAINS MESSY...TIED TO
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES SPARKING STORMS AND LOW-LEVEL JETS...NAMELY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO POPS. DO HAVE LIKELIES ON THURSDAY WHEN GREATER HEIGHT
FALLS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH
AGAIN HEAT INDEX READINGS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THAT WOULD BE AIDED IF TUESDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION
REMAINS TO THE NORTH. AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST FINALLY
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST...AND A BLOCKING TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA MOVES ON...PROGRESSION IN THE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THIS
WEEKEND. FINALLY HAVE INTRODUCED A PERIOD WITH BELOW MENTIONABLE
POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* ISOLATED TSRA EAST-NORTHEAST OF ORD/MDW ALONG WARM FRONT THIS EVE.
* THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER IOWA ARRIVES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
06Z.
* SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING AND GUSTING NEAR 20 KT
OVERNIGHT.
* WIND DIRECTION WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY TSRA OUTFLOW TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT FOR A TIME.
* SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING 25-30 KT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
RATZER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 02Z...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN IA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA HAS
CONTINUED TO PROPAGATE FASTER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. CURRENT
EXTRAPOLATION OF RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES TSRA MAY ARRIVE SHORTLY
BEFORE 05Z AT RFD...AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z FOR ORD/MDW. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPING ON NORTHWARD-LIFTING WARM
FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF DOWNTOWN CHICAGO. THIS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
ISOLATED...ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM HARVARD SOUTHEAST TO
DOWNTOWN AND LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 00Z...
EARLY EVENING WEATHER MAP DEPICTS WARM FRONT FROM NORTHERN IOWA
SOUTHEAST TO ABOUT A SQI-IKK-LAF LINE. COMPLEX OF STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST IA/SOUTHERN MN EXPECTED TO TRACK
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED INTO FAR
NORTHERN IL ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHWARD-
LIFTING WARM FRONT. TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS COMPLEX HAS
BEGUN TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD AND HOURLY HIGH-RES CONVECTION-
ALLOWING GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT SLOW. MODEL TRENDS CONSISTENTLY
POINT TO 07-08Z AND BEYOND FOR THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...THOUGH HAVE ADDED A VICINITY SHOWER MENTION AS EARLY
AS 06Z WHERE GUIDANCE HINTS AT ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.
IN THE NEAR TERM...STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WERE BACKING
WINDS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS AND
INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. TERMINAL WINDS HAVE BACKED FROM EARLIER
SOUTHWEST DIRECTIONS...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE SOUTH (170-180
DEG) THIS EVENING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED TO 10-13 KT OR
SO. SOME GUSTS ABOVE 15 KT POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WIND/CLOUD FORECAST SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE TUESDAY MORNING WITH
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW AND
MOIST LOW LEVELS COULD RESULT IN VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION WITH
A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
EVOLVE INTO GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW BY AFTERNOON HOWEVER...WITH
WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.
RATZER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA TIMING LATE TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED THIS EVENING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AND CEILING HEIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING.
RATZER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR WITH PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
211 PM CDT
A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE DENSE FOG...STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND STRONG WINDS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME SCATTERED AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS FOG IS
LIKELY LOCALLY DENSE. HOWEVER...I HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON A FOG
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO RELATIVELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THE
FOG. HOWEVER...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECAST
UPDATES...AS IT APPEARS DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH DEW POINT AIR CONTINUES TO SHIFT OVER
THE LAKE.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA THIS EVENING. IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE. THIS ACTIVITY COULD RESULT
IN STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AND LOCALLY HIGH WAVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IT APPEARS THE WINDS OVER THE LAKE
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT OUT OF THE SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS...WHICH ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATER
TONIGHT. THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD CONTINUE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE...AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OF THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORE
WATERS. HOWEVER...I HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR
NOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
OUTFLOW FROM TONIGHTS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT THE LARGER
SCALE WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. IF THERE IS VERY
LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...OFFSHORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 25 KT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
912 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 856 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2014
Not much in the way of updates anticipated for ILX this evening.
4km WRF, local models, all eroding the activity to the NW before
it impacts Central Illinois, leaving portions in the northern
portions of the state... and also a segment diving southward
through IA and into MO by early morning. Southern segment
potentially having an impact on west central Illinois early
tomorrow morning. HRRR is similar, but slower. Will keep the
going forecast with just slight pops in the extreme north for some
iso activity/sprinkles south of main line. Will have to keep a
very close eye on the ongoing MCS to the NW though, as there is
warm moist air in its path, just running into an area of
subsidence overall. Will be very close later tonight...potentially
NW of the Illinois River Valley.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 639 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2014
VFR throughout. Southerly winds tonight becoming more swrly
tomorrow morning. Debris cirrus from afternoon convection keeping
a high cig in place for a few hours for CMI BMI and DEC, but
expected to clear. Tomorrow...cu rule and forecast soundings
hinting at another cu field. Though may tend towards bkn for a
brief time frame tomorrow afternoon, but keeping a sct in for now.
Gusts will develop before midday around 25 kts.
HJS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 328 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2014
Main concern will be with chances of pcpn through most of the
forecast period. All models have trended further north with the
front and longer with the period of ridging this week. Differences
come with respect to when the ridging will break down enough to
allow pcpn into the area later this week. Prefer a slower solution
since the warm front will still be well north of the area through
Thursday. So will trend slower with pcpn onset and lower with pops
in upcoming forecast. Though would like to go drier in the later short
term periods, will need to stay blended with surrounding offices
as well.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday
Frontal boundary is currently lifting northward through the area
and has triggered some scattered thunderstorms, mainly in west
central Illinois. Believe these will continue moving north-
northeast and should stay mainly northwest of the IL river late
this afternoon and evening. Other showers or storms could develop
along the front in other areas, but these will not be as strong as
the ones in west central IL. All models try to have some pcpn this
evening, but GFS is overdone, and the NAM is not quite done
enough. Even the Canadian and ECMWF try to have some pcpn in the
area, but dry it out quickly bu 06z tonight. Apart from this,
believe dry weather will be the rule for remainder of the night
and through Tue. Models do well in forecasting the ridge to build
over the area this week and believe most of area will be dry
through Wed. With models trending slower with ridge breakdown,
believe most of the area could be dry through Thursday. However,
surrounding offices not as confident as I so will temper the
changes for now, but still trend in that direction. As complex of
storms moves along the front, well north of the area, outflow
boundaries could have an effect on extreme northern parts of the
cwa. Wed night and Thur, will have chc pops in parts of the cwa,
but still keep it dry in areas to the south.
Temps will be quite warm through the period and with dewpoints in
the lower 70s the whole time, believe heat index values will be in
the lower 100s for tomorrow and Wednesday.
LONG TERM...Thursday night through Monday
Extended looks to stay wet as the ridge does breakdown and a
front sits on top of the area through most of the period. Flow
becomes more zonal, which will be parallel to the front. So am
expecting periodic thunderstorms through the period. Then an upper
level trough pushes through the great lakes region and drags the
front south of the area, which should bring a return to dry and
cooler weather for Sun night and Monday.
Temps will be cooler than in first part of the week, just a tad
above normal, and then cool after the trough moves through Sun
night.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
449 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
239 PM CDT
OVERALL OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PREVIOUS THOUGHTS
OF AN ISOLATED AT BEST SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
18Z ILX RAOB AS WELL AS RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOW A
PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION ROUGHLY BETWEEN 900 MB AND A BIT
ABOVE 800 MB. FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND CONVERGENCE ON THE WANE
AS PREVIOUSLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS VEER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS
IT APPROACHES AND PASSES THE MS RIVER. THUS DESPITE EXPECTATION OF
SOME COOLING OF WARM LAYER ALOFT AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO RISE
INTO THE 60S...THE PIECES REALLY ARE NOT THERE FOR ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE...WITH MUCH SHALLOWER AND RAGGED CU FROM FAR EASTERN IA
AND ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL AS COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH CLOSER
TO THE HEART OF SHORT WAVE.
MODIFYING ILX SOUNDING TO CURRENT CONDITIONS STILL ONLY YIELDS A BIT
OVER 1000 J/KG OF TALL SKINNY CAPE ABOVE CAP. THUS EVEN AS CAP
ERODES SOME THIS AFTERNOON...NOT EXPECTING ROBUST UPDRAFT
ACCELERATION FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. THIS REALLY PRECLUDES A
HAIL THREAT. PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE ALREADY STRONG SOUTHERLY
SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 900 MB SEEN
ON SOUNDINGS YIELDING A BIT UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE. PRESSURE
FALLS AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE SUPPORTED FREQUENT MIXING DOWN
OF THE MID-UPPER 30S KT GUSTS AT THE TOP OF THE CHANNEL.
THEREFORE...EVEN A LINE OF SHRA THAT APPEAR MEAGER ON RADAR COULD
TAP INTO THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT AND PRODUCE GUSTS HIGHER
THAN THE ALREADY STRONG SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN GUSTS.
GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE THOUGHTS AND ALSO LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR REALLY
BACKING DOWN ON SHRA COVERAGE...HAVE SCALED BACK POPS AND WORDING
INTO PRIMARILY CHANCE RANGE. ONLY MAINTAINED LOW-END LIKELIES IN
SOUTHEASTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE TIMING OF EROSION OF CAP
AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE OFFERS A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS.
RC
&&
.DISCUSSION...
315 PM CDT
SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED AND HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. THERE
WILL BE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PLEASE SEE THE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ABOUT STORMS TODAY.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ITS COLD FRONT
EXTENDS THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN...EASTERN IOWA...AND THEN BACK
THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PUSH EAST
AHEAD OF IT. THINKING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REALLY WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND MAY ONLY HAVE A FEW LINGERING STORMS EAST OF A
VALPARAISO INDIANA TO PAXTON ILLINOIS LINE.
WINDS WILL ALSO TURN WEST AND DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
REGION. FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT BUT RIGHT NOW THINKING IT WILL ONLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 3 OR 4 MILES IN PARTS SO DID NOT PUT FOG IN THE
FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER INDIANA/CENTRAL IL. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS FIRE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TOMORROW BUT
HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE AND OCCURRENCE OF STORMS.
AS SUCH CAPPED POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO USHER IN WARM AIR AND LOOKING AT A TOASTY DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 AWAY FROM THE LAKE. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED
AND THAT WILL KEEP DOWNTOWN TEMPERATURES AROUND 80.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TOMORROW AND MOVES
OVER WISCONSIN. EXPECTING BETTER STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE TO
BE OVER WISCONSIN...BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
I-80. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA REACHES SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND REMAINS RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A
STRETCH OF VERY SUMMERY WEATHER. A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE
PLAINS TUESDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH NO LAKE
BREEZE RELIEF DOWNTOWN.
A STATIONARY FRONT HANGS OUT OVER SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY. EXPECTING
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY MORNING DISSIPATE. GIVEN THE
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND LIFT FROM THE FRONT...MAY SEE ISOLATE
STORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIMITED POPS TO THE CHANCE
RANGE AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED.
THE WARM FRONT FROM THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE OVER THE MIDWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN WHERE IT WILL BE EXACTLY BUT THE
FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE THE LIFT NEEDED TO FIRE STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM BECAUSE IF THE FRONT IS FARTHER NORTH WE MAY NOT SEE ANY
STORMS. ONCE AGAIN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE NORTH OF
I-80 AND GREATEST ALONG THE WI/IL STATE LINE.
EXTENDED...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF KEY FEATURES
CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE EXTENDED. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF AND GEM BRING
THE LOW EAST QUICKER THAN THE GFS. THURSDAY LOOKS STORMY WITH THE
PLAINS WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND ITS COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WENT WITH ALLBLEND
POPS DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE.
THE EXTENDED STARTS OFF WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY TO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE A
LITTLE LAKE COOLING OVER LAKE COUNTY IL DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT THROUGH 00Z.
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SMALL CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS CHICAGO
METRO AREA THROUGH 00Z...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEFLY VARIABLE GUSTY
WINDS NEAR THEM.
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBY OR CIGS AFTER DARK.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
HAVE PULLED THE TEMPO TSRA FROM CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES AS SATELLITE
AND OTHER OBSERVATIONAL DATA...INCLUDING 18Z WEATHER BALLOON DATA
FROM LINCOLN IL...INDICATE LIMITED ABILITY FOR STORMS TO TRIGGER.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORED BY
AFTER 22Z ALONG AND EAST OF A CHICAGO TO PONTIAC LINE.
PREV DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA
ALTHOUGH IT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30-33 KT
ACROSS CHICAGOLAND SITES AND EVEN HIGHER AT AND AROUND ROCKFORD.
THESE TYPE OF WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH 21Z OR SO AND
REMAIN FROM NEARLY DUE SOUTH.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THE CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL IL.
THIS WILL MOVE EAST ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON OVERALL
COVERAGE. THERE VERY LIKELY WILL BE AREAS NOT TO SEE ANY
STORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE OF AROUND 50 PERCENT HAS ALLOWED FOR
CONTINUED MENTION OF TSRA IN THE CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES. HIGH
RESOLUTION COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT STORMS
WILL BE EAST OF CHICAGOLAND SITES BY 00Z-01Z. WINDS WILL
POTENTIALLY BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY AROUND STORMS...INCLUDING EVEN
BRIEFLY EASTERLY IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF STORMS AS CLIMATOLOGY
SHOWS.
TONIGHT THE CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR VISBYS
OR CIGS TO DEVELOP. VISBYS WILL LIKELY BE MORE FAVORED IF RAINFALL
OCCURS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH IN WIND TRENDS.
* LOW IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS OCCURRING AT THE AIRFIELD.
* LOW IN WHETHER MVFR CIGS OR VISBYS WILL OCCUR AT THE AIRFIELD
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF PERIODIC TSRA.
MTF/MDB
&&
.MARINE...
210 PM CDT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. A RATHER STOUT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...HAS SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
MOST OF THE STRONGEST FLOW OVER THE LAKE HAS REMAINED ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AT THE WATER SURFACE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE. IT APPEARS THE STRONG STABILITY OVER THE
LAKE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CUT DOWN ON THE WINDS AND WAVES HERE.
HOWEVER...THE WINDS MAY INCREASE SOME OVER THE OPEN WATERS YET THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS SHOULD ABATE LAKE-WIDE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE LAKE FROM THE WEST.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS THAT A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE LAKE AS
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE NORTH END OF THE
LAKE AND MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL ZONE COULD ALSO
SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF FOG OVER THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE HIGH DEW POINT AIR MASS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE OVER
THE COLD WATERS. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW EPISODES
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LAKE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THIS FRONT SETS UP OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD POSE
A SEVERE THREAT TO PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
317 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...239 PM CDT
OVERALL OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PREVIOUS THOUGHTS
OF AN ISOLATED AT BEST SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 18Z
ILX RAOB AS WELL AS RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRONOUNCED
CAPPING INVERSION ROUGHLY BETWEEN 900 MB AND A BIT ABOVE 800 MB.
FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND CONVERGENCE ON THE WANE AS PREVIOUSLY
BACKED SURFACE WINDS VEER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT APPROACHES
AND PASSES THE MS RIVER. THUS DESPITE EXPECTATION OF SOME COOLING OF
WARM LAYER ALOFT AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO RISE INTO THE 60S...THE
PIECES REALLY ARE NOT THERE FOR ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS
CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE...WITH MUCH SHALLOWER AND
RAGGED CU FROM FAR EASTERN IA AND ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL AS
COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE HEART OF SHORT WAVE.
MODIFYING ILX SOUNDING TO CURRENT CONDITIONS STILL ONLY YIELDS A BIT
OVER 1000 J/KG OF TALL SKINNY CAPE ABOVE CAP. THUS EVEN AS CAP
ERODES SOME THIS AFTERNOON...NOT EXPECTING ROBUST UPDRAFT
ACCELERATION FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. THIS REALLY PRECLUDES A
HAIL THREAT. PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE ALREADY STRONG SOUTHERLY
SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 900 MB SEEN
ON SOUNDINGS YIELDING A BIT UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE. PRESSURE
FALLS AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE SUPPORTED FREQUENT MIXING DOWN
OF THE MID-UPPER 30S KT GUSTS AT THE TOP OF THE CHANNEL.
THEREFORE...EVEN A LINE OF SHRA THAT APPEAR MEAGER ON RADAR COULD
TAP INTO THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT AND PRODUCE GUSTS HIGHER
THAN THE ALREADY STRONG SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN GUSTS.
GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE THOUGHTS AND ALSO LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR REALLY
BACKING DOWN ON SHRA COVERAGE...HAVE SCALED BACK POPS AND WORDING
INTO PRIMARILY CHANCE RANGE. ONLY MAINTAINED LOW-END LIKELIES IN
SOUTHEASTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE TIMING OF EROSION OF CAP
AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE OFFERS A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS.
RC
&&
.DISCUSSION...
315 PM CDT
SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED AND HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. THERE
WILL BE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PLEASE SEE THE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ABOUT STORMS TODAY.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ITS COLD FRONT
EXTENDS THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN...EASTERN IOWA...AND THEN BACK
THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PUSH EAST
AHEAD OF IT. THINKING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REALLY WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND MAY ONLY HAVE A FEW LINGERING STORMS EAST OF A
VALPARAISO INDIANA TO PAXTON ILLINOIS LINE.
WINDS WILL ALSO TURN WEST AND DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
REGION. FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT BUT RIGHT NOW THINKING IT WILL ONLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 3 OR 4 MILES IN PARTS SO DID NOT PUT FOG IN THE
FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER INDIANA/CENTRAL IL. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS FIRE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TOMORROW BUT
HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE AND OCCURRENCE OF STORMS.
AS SUCH CAPPED POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO USHER IN WARM AIR AND LOOKING AT A TOASTY DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 AWAY FROM THE LAKE. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED
AND THAT WILL KEEP DOWNTOWN TEMPERATURES AROUND 80.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TOMORROW AND MOVES
OVER WISCONSIN. EXPECTING BETTER STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE TO
BE OVER WISCONSIN...BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
I-80. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA REACHES SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND REMAINS RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A
STRETCH OF VERY SUMMERY WEATHER. A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE
PLAINS TUESDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH NO LAKE
BREEZE RELIEF DOWNTOWN.
A STATIONARY FRONT HANGS OUT OVER SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY. EXPECTING
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY MORNING DISSIPATE. GIVEN THE
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND LIFT FROM THE FRONT...MAY SEE ISOLATE
STORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIMITED POPS TO THE CHANCE
RANGE AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED.
THE WARM FRONT FROM THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE OVER THE MIDWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN WHERE IT WILL BE EXACTLY BUT THE
FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE THE LIFT NEEDED TO FIRE STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM BECAUSE IF THE FRONT IS FARTHER NORTH WE MAY NOT SEE ANY
STORMS. ONCE AGAIN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE NORTH OF
I-80 AND GREATEST ALONG THE WI/IL STATE LINE.
EXTENDED...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF KEY FEATURES
CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE EXTENDED. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF AND GEM BRING
THE LOW EAST QUICKER THAN THE GFS. THURSDAY LOOKS STORMY WITH THE
PLAINS WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND ITS COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WENT WITH ALLBLEND
POPS DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE.
THE EXTENDED STARTS OFF WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY TO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE A
LITTLE LAKE COOLING OVER LAKE COUNTY IL DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* SOUTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30KT THROUGH 21Z-
22Z.
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SMALL CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS CHICAGO
METRO AREA 21Z-00Z...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEFLY VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS
NEAR THEM.
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBY OR CIGS AFTER DARK.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
HAVE PULLED THE TEMPO TSRA FROM CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES AS SATELLITE
AND OTHER OBSERVATIONAL DATA...INCLUDING 18Z WEATHER BALLOON DATA
FROM LINCOLN IL...INDICATE LIMITED ABILITY FOR STORMS TO TRIGGER.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORED BY
AFTER 22Z ALONG AND EAST OF A CHICAGO TO PONTIAC LINE.
PREV DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA
ALTHOUGH IT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30-33 KT
ACROSS CHICAGOLAND SITES AND EVEN HIGHER AT AND AROUND ROCKFORD.
THESE TYPE OF WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH 21Z OR SO AND
REMAIN FROM NEARLY DUE SOUTH.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THE CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL IL.
THIS WILL MOVE EAST ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON OVERALL
COVERAGE. THERE VERY LIKELY WILL BE AREAS NOT TO SEE ANY
STORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE OF AROUND 50 PERCENT HAS ALLOWED FOR
CONTINUED MENTION OF TSRA IN THE CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES. HIGH
RESOLUTION COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT STORMS
WILL BE EAST OF CHICAGOLAND SITES BY 00Z-01Z. WINDS WILL
POTENTIALLY BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY AROUND STORMS...INCLUDING EVEN
BRIEFLY EASTERLY IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF STORMS AS CLIMATOLOGY
SHOWS.
TONIGHT THE CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR VISBYS
OR CIGS TO DEVELOP. VISBYS WILL LIKELY BE MORE FAVORED IF RAINFALL
OCCURS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH THAT NEARLY DUE SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR AROUND
30 KT THROUGH 21Z BEFORE SLOWLY COMING DOWN.
* LOW IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS OCCURRING AT THE AIRFIELD.
* LOW IN WHETHER MVFR CIGS OR VISBYS WILL OCCUR AT THE AIRFIELD
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF PERIODIC TSRA.
MTF/MDB
&&
.MARINE...
210 PM CDT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. A RATHER STOUT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...HAS SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
MOST OF THE STRONGEST FLOW OVER THE LAKE HAS REMAINED ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AT THE WATER SURFACE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE. IT APPEARS THE STRONG STABILITY OVER THE
LAKE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CUT DOWN ON THE WINDS AND WAVES HERE.
HOWEVER...THE WINDS MAY INCREASE SOME OVER THE OPEN WATERS YET THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS SHOULD ABATE LAKE-WIDE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE LAKE FROM THE WEST.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS THAT A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE LAKE AS
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE NORTH END OF THE
LAKE AND MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL ZONE COULD ALSO
SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF FOG OVER THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE HIGH DEW POINT AIR MASS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE OVER
THE COLD WATERS. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW EPISODES
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LAKE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THIS FRONT SETS UP OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD POSE
A SEVERE THREAT TO PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
250 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
239 PM CDT
OVERALL OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PREVIOUS THOUGHTS
OF AN ISOLATED AT BEST SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 18Z
ILX RAOB AS WELL AS RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRONOUNCED
CAPPING INVERSION ROUGHLY BETWEEN 900 MB AND A BIT ABOVE 800 MB.
FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND CONVERGENCE ON THE WANE AS PREVIOUSLY
BACKED SURFACE WINDS VEER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT APPROACHES
AND PASSES THE MS RIVER. THUS DESPITE EXPECTATION OF SOME COOLING OF
WARM LAYER ALOFT AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO RISE INTO THE 60S...THE
PIECES REALLY ARE NOT THERE FOR ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS
CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE...WITH MUCH SHALLOWER AND
RAGGED CU FROM FAR EASTERN IA AND ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL AS
COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE HEART OF SHORT WAVE.
MODIFYING ILX SOUNDING TO CURRENT CONDITIONS STILL ONLY YIELDS A BIT
OVER 1000 J/KG OF TALL SKINNY CAPE ABOVE CAP. THUS EVEN AS CAP
ERODES SOME THIS AFTERNOON...NOT EXPECTING ROBUST UPDRAFT
ACCELERATION FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. THIS REALLY PRECLUDES A
HAIL THREAT. PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE ALREADY STRONG SOUTHERLY
SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 900 MB SEEN
ON SOUNDINGS YIELDING A BIT UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE. PRESSURE
FALLS AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE SUPPORTED FREQUENT MIXING DOWN
OF THE MID-UPPER 30S KT GUSTS AT THE TOP OF THE CHANNEL.
THEREFORE...EVEN A LINE OF SHRA THAT APPEAR MEAGER ON RADAR COULD
TAP INTO THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT AND PRODUCE GUSTS HIGHER
THAN THE ALREADY STRONG SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN GUSTS.
GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE THOUGHTS AND ALSO LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR REALLY
BACKING DOWN ON SHRA COVERAGE...HAVE SCALED BACK POPS AND WORDING
INTO PRIMARILY CHANCE RANGE. ONLY MAINTAINED LOW-END LIKELIES IN
SOUTHEASTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE TIMING OF EROSION OF CAP
AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE OFFERS A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS.
RC
&&
//PREV DISCUSSION...
306 AM CDT
FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING INCLUDE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...AND AN ACTIVE SUMMERTIME PATTERN
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND PROGGED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THEN
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS
THE PLAINS MOVING INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING THOUGH
HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING WITH DECREASING LIGHTNING COUNT
AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. EXTRAPOLATION
OF THE LINE HAS IT INTO OUR AREA MID MORNING SO EXPECT MUCH OF THE
MORNING TO REMAIN DRY.
AS THE UPPER WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...A BETTER
ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MINNESOTA THEN
LIFT NORTH INTO MANITOBA/QUEBEC THIS EVENING AND PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITHIN THIS FRONTAL TROUGH...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 80S WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT. THE CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT NARROW THOUGH WITH UPPER 40 TO LOW 50
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY FARTHER EAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN DRY WEATHER LOCALLY UNTIL THE FRONT NEARS. PARED BACK POPS
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING AS IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT ANY REMNANT
ACTIVITY FROM THE MCS WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST INTO THE CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE
UPPER JET. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS/CONCERNS TODAY FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT INCLUDE CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WHICH MAY TEMPER
OUR ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH APPEARS MARGINAL PER SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS. AND AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...NORTHWARD LIFTING LOW WILL STRETCH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INTO STRONG RIDGING ANCHORED IN THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...AN IDEA
SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND THE 00Z SPC 4KM WRF WHICH SHOWS FAIRLY
LIMITED ACTIVITY. SEVERE WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MIGHT BE POSSIBLE NEAR
INITIATION IF WINDS CAN REMAIN BACKED...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER MORE TO THE SSW WITH THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT. OVERALL...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
NOT ZERO BUT APPEARS UNIMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW COVERAGE.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FRONT STARTS TO
LAY OUT BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR
VECTORS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
AND POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS LINE
SETS UP...WHICH APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO LAY OUT AND STALL ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA WHILE MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WESTWARD SLIGHTLY WITH THERMAL RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS STARTING
TO WRAP BACK EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. H85 TEMPS WARM
TO AROUND 18C MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH HOWEVER...A LAKE BREEZE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DEVELOP MONDAY COOLING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE BACK
INTO THE 70S PERHAPS 60S RIGHT NEAR THE LAKE FRONT. H85 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM TUESDAY WITH SOME MODELS NOW SUGGESTING TEMPS TO
AROUND 23C WHICH WOULD EASILY SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE 90S PERHAPS MID
90S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX
NORTH OF US BY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE BETTER CONSENSUS IN PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...TAPERED POPS SOME ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND NUDGED
TEMPS UP TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GEMNH AND ECMWF WHICH
GAVE LOW TO MID 90S. CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHEST TEMPS REMAINS BEST IN
THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BE MOST REMOVED FROM ANY PRECIP/DEBRIS.
WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR CUT WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR OUTFLOW
AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND MAKING THE TEMP FORECAST A BIT MORE
TRICKY. WILL STICK TO THE CONSENSUS BLEND FOR NOW...BUT AGAIN
WEDNESDAY CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPS GETTING WELL INTO THE 90S IF THINGS
PLAY OUT RIGHT. WHEREVER THE THUNDERSTORMS END UP DEVELOPING THIS
PERIOD...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODEL SOLUTIONS QUICKLY DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH EITHER WAY IT APPEARS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DID NOT
STRAY FROM A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* SOUTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30KT THROUGH 21Z-
22Z.
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SMALL CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS CHICAGO
METRO AREA 21Z-00Z...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEFLY VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS
NEAR THEM.
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBY OR CIGS AFTER DARK.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
HAVE PULLED THE TEMPO TSRA FROM CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES AS SATELLITE
AND OTHER OBSERVATIONAL DATA...INCLUDING 18Z WEATHER BALLOON DATA
FROM LICOLN IL...INDICATE LIMITED ABILITY FOR STORMS TO TRIGGER.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORED BY
AFTER 22Z ALONG AND EAST OF A CHICAGO TO PONTIAC LINE.
PREV DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA
ALTHOUGH IT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30-33 KT
ACROSS CHICAGOLAND SITES AND EVEN HIGHER AT AND AROUND ROCKFORD.
THESE TYPE OF WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH 21Z OR SO AND
REMAIN FROM NEARLY DUE SOUTH.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THE CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL IL.
THIS WILL MOVE EAST ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON OVERALL
COVERAGE. THERE VERY LIKELY WILL BE AREAS NOT TO SEE ANY
STORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE OF AROUND 50 PERCENT HAS ALLOWED FOR
CONTINUED MENTION OF TSRA IN THE CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES. HIGH
RESOLUTION COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT STORMS
WILL BE EAST OF CHICAGOLAND SITES BY 00Z-01Z. WINDS WILL
POTENTIALLY BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY AROUND STORMS...INCLUDING EVEN
BRIEFLY EASTERLY IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF STORMS AS CLIMATOLOGY
SHOWS.
TONIGHT THE CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR VISBYS
OR CIGS TO DEVELOP. VISBYS WILL LIKELY BE MORE FAVORED IF RAINFALL
OCCURS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH THAT NEARLY DUE SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR AROUND
30 KT THROUGH 21Z BEFORE SLOWLY COMING DOWN.
* LOW IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS OCCURRING AT THE AIRFIELD.
* LOW IN WHETHER MVFR CIGS OR VISBYS WILL OCCUR AT THE AIRFIELD
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF PERIODIC TSRA.
MTF/MDB
&&
.MARINE...
210 PM CDT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. A RATHER STOUT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...HAS SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
MOST OF THE STRONGEST FLOW OVER THE LAKE HAS REMAINED ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AT THE WATER SURFACE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE. IT APPEARS THE STRONG STABILITY OVER THE
LAKE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CUT DOWN ON THE WINDS AND WAVES HERE.
HOWEVER...THE WINDS MAY INCREASE SOME OVER THE OPEN WATERS YET THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS SHOULD ABATE LAKE-WIDE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE LAKE FROM THE WEST.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS THAT A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE LAKE AS
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE NORTH END OF THE
LAKE AND MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL ZONE COULD ALSO
SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF FOG OVER THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE HIGH DEW POINT AIR MASS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE OVER
THE COLD WATERS. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW EPISODES
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LAKE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THIS FRONT SETS UP OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD POSE
A SEVERE THREAT TO PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
239 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
239 PM CDT
OVERALL OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PREVIOUS THOUGHTS
OF AN ISOLATED AT BEST SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 18Z
ILX RAOB AS WELL AS RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRONOUNCED
CAPPING INVERSION ROUGHLY BETWEEN 900 MB AND A BIT ABOVE 800 MB.
FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND CONVERGENCE ON THE WANE AS PREVIOUSLY
BACKED SURFACE WINDS VEER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT APPROACHES
AND PASSES THE MS RIVER. THUS DESPITE EXPECTATION OF SOME COOLING OF
WARM LAYER ALOFT AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO RISE INTO THE 60S...THE
PIECES REALLY ARE NOT THERE FOR ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS
CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE...WITH MUCH SHALLOWER AND
RAGGED CU FROM FAR EASTERN IA AND ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL AS
COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE HEART OF SHORT WAVE.
MODIFYING ILX SOUNDING TO CURRENT CONDITIONS STILL ONLY YIELDS A BIT
OVER 1000 J/KG OF TALL SKINNY CAPE ABOVE CAP. THUS EVEN AS CAP
ERODES SOME THIS AFTERNOON...NOT EXPECTING ROBUST UPDRAFT
ACCELERATION FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. THIS REALLY PRECLUDES A
HAIL THREAT. PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE ALREADY STRONG SOUTHERLY
SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 900 MB SEEN
ON SOUNDINGS YIELDING A BIT UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE. PRESSURE
FALLS AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE SUPPORTED FREQUENT MIXING DOWN
OF THE MID-UPPER 30S KT GUSTS AT THE TOP OF THE CHANNEL.
THEREFORE...EVEN A LINE OF SHRA THAT APPEAR MEAGER ON RADAR COULD
TAP INTO THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT AND PRODUCE GUSTS HIGHER
THAN THE ALREADY STRONG SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN GUSTS.
GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE THOUGHTS AND ALSO LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR REALLY
BACKING DOWN ON SHRA COVERAGE...HAVE SCALED BACK POPS AND WORDING
INTO PRIMARILY CHANCE RANGE. ONLY MAINTAINED LOW-END LIKELIES IN
SOUTHEASTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE TIMING OF EROSION OF CAP
AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE OFFERS A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS.
RC
&&
//PREV DISCUSSION...
306 AM CDT
FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING INCLUDE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...AND AN ACTIVE SUMMERTIME PATTERN
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND PROGGED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THEN
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS
THE PLAINS MOVING INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING THOUGH
HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING WITH DECREASING LIGHTNING COUNT
AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. EXTRAPOLATION
OF THE LINE HAS IT INTO OUR AREA MID MORNING SO EXPECT MUCH OF THE
MORNING TO REMAIN DRY.
AS THE UPPER WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...A BETTER
ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MINNESOTA THEN
LIFT NORTH INTO MANITOBA/QUEBEC THIS EVENING AND PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITHIN THIS FRONTAL TROUGH...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 80S WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT. THE CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT NARROW THOUGH WITH UPPER 40 TO LOW 50
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY FARTHER EAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN DRY WEATHER LOCALLY UNTIL THE FRONT NEARS. PARED BACK POPS
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING AS IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT ANY REMNANT
ACTIVITY FROM THE MCS WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST INTO THE CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE
UPPER JET. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS/CONCERNS TODAY FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT INCLUDE CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WHICH MAY TEMPER
OUR ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH APPEARS MARGINAL PER SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS. AND AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...NORTHWARD LIFTING LOW WILL STRETCH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INTO STRONG RIDGING ANCHORED IN THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...AN IDEA
SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND THE 00Z SPC 4KM WRF WHICH SHOWS FAIRLY
LIMITED ACTIVITY. SEVERE WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MIGHT BE POSSIBLE NEAR
INITIATION IF WINDS CAN REMAIN BACKED...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER MORE TO THE SSW WITH THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT. OVERALL...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
NOT ZERO BUT APPEARS UNIMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW COVERAGE.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FRONT STARTS TO
LAY OUT BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR
VECTORS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
AND POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS LINE
SETS UP...WHICH APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO LAY OUT AND STALL ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA WHILE MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WESTWARD SLIGHTLY WITH THERMAL RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS STARTING
TO WRAP BACK EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. H85 TEMPS WARM
TO AROUND 18C MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH HOWEVER...A LAKE BREEZE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DEVELOP MONDAY COOLING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE BACK
INTO THE 70S PERHAPS 60S RIGHT NEAR THE LAKE FRONT. H85 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM TUESDAY WITH SOME MODELS NOW SUGGESTING TEMPS TO
AROUND 23C WHICH WOULD EASILY SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE 90S PERHAPS MID
90S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX
NORTH OF US BY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE BETTER CONSENSUS IN PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...TAPERED POPS SOME ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND NUDGED
TEMPS UP TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GEMNH AND ECMWF WHICH
GAVE LOW TO MID 90S. CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHEST TEMPS REMAINS BEST IN
THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BE MOST REMOVED FROM ANY PRECIP/DEBRIS.
WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR CUT WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR OUTFLOW
AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND MAKING THE TEMP FORECAST A BIT MORE
TRICKY. WILL STICK TO THE CONSENSUS BLEND FOR NOW...BUT AGAIN
WEDNESDAY CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPS GETTING WELL INTO THE 90S IF THINGS
PLAY OUT RIGHT. WHEREVER THE THUNDERSTORMS END UP DEVELOPING THIS
PERIOD...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODEL SOLUTIONS QUICKLY DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH EITHER WAY IT APPEARS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DID NOT
STRAY FROM A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SOUTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30KT THROUGH 21Z-
22Z.
* SCATTERED STORMS MOVING ACROSS CHICAGO METRO AREA 21Z-00Z...WITH
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS NEAR THEM.
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBY OR CIGS AFTER DARK.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA
ALTHOUGH IT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30-33 KT
ACROSS CHICAGOLAND SITES AND EVEN HIGHER AT AND AROUND ROCKFORD.
THESE TYPE OF WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH 21Z OR SO AND
REMAIN FROM NEARLY DUE SOUTH.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THE CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL IL.
THIS WILL MOVE EAST ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON OVERALL
COVERAGE. THERE VERY LIKELY WILL BE AREAS NOT TO SEE ANY
STORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE OF AROUND 50 PERCENT HAS ALLOWED FOR
CONTINUED MENTION OF TSRA IN THE CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES. HIGH
RESOLUTION COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT STORMS
WILL BE EAST OF CHICAGOLAND SITES BY 00Z-01Z. WINDS WILL
POTENTIALLY BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY AROUND STORMS...INCLUDING EVEN
BRIEFLY EASTERLY IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF STORMS AS CLIMATOLOGY
SHOWS.
TONIGHT THE CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR VISBYS
OR CIGS TO DEVELOP. VISBYS WILL LIKELY BE MORE FAVORED IF RAINFALL
OCCURS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH THAT NEARLY DUE SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR
AROUND 30 KT.
* MEDIUM IN STORMS OCCURRING AT THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND
MEDIUM-HIGH IN TIMING.
* LOW IN WHETHER MVFR CIGS OR VISBYS WILL OCCUR AT THE AIRFIELD
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF PERIODIC TSRA.
MTF/MDB
&&
.MARINE...
210 PM CDT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. A RATHER STOUT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...HAS SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
MOST OF THE STRONGEST FLOW OVER THE LAKE HAS REMAINED ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AT THE WATER SURFACE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE. IT APPEARS THE STRONG STABILITY OVER THE
LAKE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CUT DOWN ON THE WINDS AND WAVES HERE.
HOWEVER...THE WINDS MAY INCREASE SOME OVER THE OPEN WATERS YET THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS SHOULD ABATE LAKE-WIDE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE LAKE FROM THE WEST.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS THAT A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE LAKE AS
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE NORTH END OF THE
LAKE AND MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL ZONE COULD ALSO
SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF FOG OVER THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE HIGH DEW POINT AIR MASS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE OVER
THE COLD WATERS. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW EPISODES
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LAKE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THIS FRONT SETS UP OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD POSE
A SEVERE THREAT TO PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
211 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1040 AM CDT
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THAT INCLUDE LOWERING
POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. STILL ANTICIPATE SCATTERED
STORMS...BUT AS NOTED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION THE CONCERNS LIMITING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ARE SHOWING UP IN OBSERVATIONAL FIELDS. THIS
ALSO SOMEWHAT TEMPERS THE CHANCES OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
A POTENT SHORT WAVE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO CENTRAL IA
CONTINUES TO WRAP NORTHEAST AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ND.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT WAS TRIGGERED BY THIS FADED BUT LEFT
ITS IMPRINT WITH MUCH DEBRIS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. THERE
IS EVEN 4000-6000FT CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THETA-E ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. AN ELEVATED OUTFLOW IS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
FROM NORTH CENTRAL IL SOUTHWARD TO THE ST LOUIS AREA. SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS TOWARD ST LOUIS AND DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL IL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME INTO THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG PLAYER.
THE DEBRIS CLOUD HAS BEGUN TO FADE ACROSS THE DVN CWA WITH
GRADUAL DESTABILIZING OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST FROM CENTRAL IA. AN ADAPTED 12Z DVN SOUNDING WOULD
INDICATE AROUND 83-84 DEGREES NEEDED FOR INITIATION OF CONVECTION
GIVEN THE MID 60S DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THAT AREA. BEING UNDER
THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AND STILL REALIZING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SEEN BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THAT AREA BUILDING SOUTHWARD WHILE OVERALL
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THE BETTER SHORT WAVE WILL
BE REMAINING MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A SECOND
MORE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVE FURTHER SOUTH. THAT GAP IN MORE
SUPPORTIVE MID-LEVEL FORCING COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER
LIMITING IMMEDIATE DESTABILIZATION OVER THE CWA HAS LED TO AN
EXPECTED LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS. WITH LESS STORMS/LESS COLD
POOLS THIS AFTERNOON COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TRUNCATED INTO
THE EVE.
WITH REGARD TO WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE CLEARING AREA
OF EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL...DUBUQUE IA OBSERVE A 40 MPH GUST.
PROFILER WINDS AND RAP SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST SUCH GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IF WE DO SCATTER...WHICH NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT WE WILL.
NORTH CENTRAL IL WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR SOME OF THOSE
GUSTS AS PRESSURE FALLS WILL ALSO ENCOMPASS THERE THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON. WITH ALREADY A 35 MPH GUST AT ROCKFORD...WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.
MTF/KJB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
306 AM CDT
FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING INCLUDE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...AND AN ACTIVE SUMMERTIME PATTERN
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND PROGGED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THEN
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS
THE PLAINS MOVING INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING THOUGH
HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING WITH DECREASING LIGHTNING COUNT
AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. EXTRAPOLATION
OF THE LINE HAS IT INTO OUR AREA MID MORNING SO EXPECT MUCH OF THE
MORNING TO REMAIN DRY.
AS THE UPPER WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...A BETTER
ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MINNESOTA THEN
LIFT NORTH INTO MANITOBA/QUEBEC THIS EVENING AND PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITHIN THIS FRONTAL TROUGH...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 80S WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT. THE CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT NARROW THOUGH WITH UPPER 40 TO LOW 50
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY FARTHER EAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN DRY WEATHER LOCALLY UNTIL THE FRONT NEARS. PARED BACK POPS
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING AS IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT ANY REMNANT
ACTIVITY FROM THE MCS WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST INTO THE CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE
UPPER JET. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS/CONCERNS TODAY FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT INCLUDE CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WHICH MAY TEMPER
OUR ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH APPEARS MARGINAL PER SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS. AND AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...NORTHWARD LIFTING LOW WILL STRETCH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INTO STRONG RIDGING ANCHORED IN THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...AN IDEA
SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND THE 00Z SPC 4KM WRF WHICH SHOWS FAIRLY
LIMITED ACTIVITY. SEVERE WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MIGHT BE POSSIBLE NEAR
INITIATION IF WINDS CAN REMAIN BACKED...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER MORE TO THE SSW WITH THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT. OVERALL...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
NOT ZERO BUT APPEARS UNIMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW COVERAGE.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FRONT STARTS TO
LAY OUT BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR
VECTORS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
AND POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS LINE
SETS UP...WHICH APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO LAY OUT AND STALL ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA WHILE MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WESTWARD SLIGHTLY WITH THERMAL RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS STARTING
TO WRAP BACK EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. H85 TEMPS WARM
TO AROUND 18C MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH HOWEVER...A LAKE BREEZE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DEVELOP MONDAY COOLING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE BACK
INTO THE 70S PERHAPS 60S RIGHT NEAR THE LAKE FRONT. H85 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM TUESDAY WITH SOME MODELS NOW SUGGESTING TEMPS TO
AROUND 23C WHICH WOULD EASILY SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE 90S PERHAPS MID
90S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX
NORTH OF US BY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE BETTER CONSENSUS IN PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...TAPERED POPS SOME ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND NUDGED
TEMPS UP TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GEMNH AND ECMWF WHICH
GAVE LOW TO MID 90S. CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHEST TEMPS REMAINS BEST IN
THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BE MOST REMOVED FROM ANY PRECIP/DEBRIS.
WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR CUT WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR OUTFLOW
AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND MAKING THE TEMP FORECAST A BIT MORE
TRICKY. WILL STICK TO THE CONSENSUS BLEND FOR NOW...BUT AGAIN
WEDNESDAY CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPS GETTING WELL INTO THE 90S IF THINGS
PLAY OUT RIGHT. WHEREVER THE THUNDERSTORMS END UP DEVELOPING THIS
PERIOD...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODEL SOLUTIONS QUICKLY DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH EITHER WAY IT APPEARS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DID NOT
STRAY FROM A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SOUTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30KT THROUGH 21Z-
22Z.
* SCATTERED STORMS MOVING ACROSS CHICAGO METRO AREA 21Z-00Z...WITH
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS NEAR THEM.
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBY OR CIGS AFTER DARK.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA
ALTHOUGH IT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30-33 KT
ACROSS CHICAGOLAND SITES AND EVEN HIGHER AT AND AROUND ROCKFORD.
THESE TYPE OF WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH 21Z OR SO AND
REMAIN FROM NEARLY DUE SOUTH.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THE CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL IL.
THIS WILL MOVE EAST ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON OVERALL
COVERAGE. THERE VERY LIKELY WILL BE AREAS NOT TO SEE ANY
STORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE OF AROUND 50 PERCENT HAS ALLOWED FOR
CONTINUED MENTION OF TSRA IN THE CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES. HIGH
RESOLUTION COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT STORMS
WILL BE EAST OF CHICAGOLAND SITES BY 00Z-01Z. WINDS WILL
POTENTIALLY BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY AROUND STORMS...INCLUDING EVEN
BRIEFLY EASTERLY IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF STORMS AS CLIMATOLOGY
SHOWS.
TONIGHT THE CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR VISBYS
OR CIGS TO DEVELOP. VISBYS WILL LIKELY BE MORE FAVORED IF RAINFALL
OCCURS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH THAT NEARLY DUE SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR
AROUND 30 KT.
* MEDIUM IN STORMS OCCURRING AT THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND
MEDIUM-HIGH IN TIMING.
* LOW IN WHETHER MVFR CIGS OR VISBYS WILL OCCUR AT THE AIRFIELD
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF PERIODIC TSRA.
MTF/MDB
&&
.MARINE...
210 PM CDT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. A RATHER STOUT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...HAS SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
MOST OF THE STRONGEST FLOW OVER THE LAKE HAS REMAINED ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AT THE WATER SURFACE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE. IT APPEARS THE STRONG STABILITY OVER THE
LAKE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CUT DOWN ON THE WINDS AND WAVES HERE.
HOWEVER...THE WINDS MAY INCREASE SOME OVER THE OPEN WATERS YET THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS SHOULD ABATE LAKE-WIDE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE LAKE FROM THE WEST.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS THAT A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE LAKE AS
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE NORTH END OF THE
LAKE AND MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL ZONE COULD ALSO
SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF FOG OVER THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE HIGH DEW POINT AIR MASS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE OVER
THE COLD WATERS. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW EPISODES
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LAKE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THIS FRONT SETS UP OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD POSE
A SEVERE THREAT TO PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1259 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1040 AM CDT
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THAT INCLUDE LOWERING
POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. STILL ANTICIPATE SCATTERED
STORMS...BUT AS NOTED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION THE CONCERNS LIMITING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ARE SHOWING UP IN OBSERVATIONAL FIELDS. THIS
ALSO SOMEWHAT TEMPERS THE CHANCES OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
A POTENT SHORT WAVE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO CENTRAL IA
CONTINUES TO WRAP NORTHEAST AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ND.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT WAS TRIGGERED BY THIS FADED BUT LEFT
ITS IMPRINT WITH MUCH DEBRIS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. THERE
IS EVEN 4000-6000FT CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THETA-E ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. AN ELEVATED OUTFLOW IS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
FROM NORTH CENTRAL IL SOUTHWARD TO THE ST LOUIS AREA. SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS TOWARD ST LOUIS AND DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL IL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME INTO THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG PLAYER.
THE DEBRIS CLOUD HAS BEGUN TO FADE ACROSS THE DVN CWA WITH
GRADUAL DESTABILIZING OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST FROM CENTRAL IA. AN ADAPTED 12Z DVN SOUNDING WOULD
INDICATE AROUND 83-84 DEGREES NEEDED FOR INITIATION OF CONVECTION
GIVEN THE MID 60S DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THAT AREA. BEING UNDER
THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AND STILL REALIZING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SEEN BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THAT AREA BUILDING SOUTHWARD WHILE OVERALL
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THE BETTER SHORT WAVE WILL
BE REMAINING MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A SECOND
MORE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVE FURTHER SOUTH. THAT GAP IN MORE
SUPPORTIVE MID-LEVEL FORCING COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER
LIMITING IMMEDIATE DESTABILIZATION OVER THE CWA HAS LED TO AN
EXPECTED LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS. WITH LESS STORMS/LESS COLD
POOLS THIS AFTERNOON COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TRUNCATED INTO
THE EVE.
WITH REGARD TO WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE CLEARING AREA
OF EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL...DUBUQUE IA OBSERVE A 40 MPH GUST.
PROFILER WINDS AND RAP SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST SUCH GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IF WE DO SCATTER...WHICH NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT WE WILL.
NORTH CENTRAL IL WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR SOME OF THOSE
GUSTS AS PRESSURE FALLS WILL ALSO ENCOMPASS THERE THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON. WITH ALREADY A 35 MPH GUST AT ROCKFORD...WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.
MTF/KJB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
306 AM CDT
FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING INCLUDE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...AND AN ACTIVE SUMMERTIME PATTERN
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND PROGGED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THEN
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS
THE PLAINS MOVING INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING THOUGH
HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING WITH DECREASING LIGHTNING COUNT
AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. EXTRAPOLATION
OF THE LINE HAS IT INTO OUR AREA MID MORNING SO EXPECT MUCH OF THE
MORNING TO REMAIN DRY.
AS THE UPPER WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...A BETTER
ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MINNESOTA THEN
LIFT NORTH INTO MANITOBA/QUEBEC THIS EVENING AND PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITHIN THIS FRONTAL TROUGH...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 80S WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT. THE CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT NARROW THOUGH WITH UPPER 40 TO LOW 50
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY FARTHER EAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN DRY WEATHER LOCALLY UNTIL THE FRONT NEARS. PARED BACK POPS
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING AS IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT ANY REMNANT
ACTIVITY FROM THE MCS WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST INTO THE CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE
UPPER JET. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS/CONCERNS TODAY FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT INCLUDE CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WHICH MAY TEMPER
OUR ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH APPEARS MARGINAL PER SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS. AND AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...NORTHWARD LIFTING LOW WILL STRETCH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INTO STRONG RIDGING ANCHORED IN THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...AN IDEA
SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND THE 00Z SPC 4KM WRF WHICH SHOWS FAIRLY
LIMITED ACTIVITY. SEVERE WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MIGHT BE POSSIBLE NEAR
INITIATION IF WINDS CAN REMAIN BACKED...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER MORE TO THE SSW WITH THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT. OVERALL...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
NOT ZERO BUT APPEARS UNIMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW COVERAGE.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FRONT STARTS TO
LAY OUT BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR
VECTORS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
AND POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS LINE
SETS UP...WHICH APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO LAY OUT AND STALL ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA WHILE MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WESTWARD SLIGHTLY WITH THERMAL RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS STARTING
TO WRAP BACK EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. H85 TEMPS WARM
TO AROUND 18C MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH HOWEVER...A LAKE BREEZE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DEVELOP MONDAY COOLING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE BACK
INTO THE 70S PERHAPS 60S RIGHT NEAR THE LAKE FRONT. H85 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM TUESDAY WITH SOME MODELS NOW SUGGESTING TEMPS TO
AROUND 23C WHICH WOULD EASILY SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE 90S PERHAPS MID
90S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX
NORTH OF US BY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE BETTER CONSENSUS IN PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...TAPERED POPS SOME ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND NUDGED
TEMPS UP TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GEMNH AND ECMWF WHICH
GAVE LOW TO MID 90S. CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHEST TEMPS REMAINS BEST IN
THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BE MOST REMOVED FROM ANY PRECIP/DEBRIS.
WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR CUT WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR OUTFLOW
AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND MAKING THE TEMP FORECAST A BIT MORE
TRICKY. WILL STICK TO THE CONSENSUS BLEND FOR NOW...BUT AGAIN
WEDNESDAY CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPS GETTING WELL INTO THE 90S IF THINGS
PLAY OUT RIGHT. WHEREVER THE THUNDERSTORMS END UP DEVELOPING THIS
PERIOD...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODEL SOLUTIONS QUICKLY DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH EITHER WAY IT APPEARS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DID NOT
STRAY FROM A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SOUTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30KT THROUGH 21Z-
22Z.
* SCATTERED STORMS MOVING ACROSS CHICAGO METRO AREA 21Z-00Z...WITH
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS NEAR THEM.
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBY OR CIGS AFTER DARK.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA
ALTHOUGH IT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30-33 KT
ACROSS CHICAGOLAND SITES AND EVEN HIGHER AT AND AROUND ROCKFORD.
THESE TYPE OF WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH 21Z OR SO AND
REMAIN FROM NEARLY DUE SOUTH.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THE CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL IL.
THIS WILL MOVE EAST ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON OVERALL
COVERAGE. THERE VERY LIKELY WILL BE AREAS NOT TO SEE ANY
STORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE OF AROUND 50 PERCENT HAS ALLOWED FOR
CONTINUED MENTION OF TSRA IN THE CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES. HIGH
RESOLUTION COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT STORMS
WILL BE EAST OF CHICAGOLAND SITES BY 00Z-01Z. WINDS WILL
POTENTIALLY BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY AROUND STORMS...INCLUDING EVEN
BRIEFLY EASTERLY IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF STORMS AS CLIMATOLOGY
SHOWS.
TONIGHT THE CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR VISBYS
OR CIGS TO DEVELOP. VISBYS WILL LIKELY BE MORE FAVORED IF RAINFALL
OCCURS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH THAT NEARLY DUE SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR
AROUND 30 KT.
* MEDIUM IN STORMS OCCURRING AT THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND
MEDIUM-HIGH IN TIMING.
* LOW IN WHETHER MVFR CIGS OR VISBYS WILL OCCUR AT THE AIRFIELD
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF PERIODIC TSRA.
MTF/MDB
&&
.MARINE...
312 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM JAMES BAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA. THIS LOW WILL
THEN REACH EASTERN MANITOBA TONIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING AND TURN TO THE SOUTH
WHILE DOING SO. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 25-30 KT
SPEEDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE
INDIANA WATERS MAY SEE WINDS FALL BELOW CRITERIA A LITTLE EARLIER
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WILL CROSS THE
LAKE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BRINGING A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AS
WELL AS A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE ACROSS AT
LEAST NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND
MAY SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AGAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
TUESDAY AS A PORTION OF THE LOW TO THE WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO. A FRONT STRETCHING FROM THIS WEAKER LOW TO A BETTER
ORGANIZED LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY STALL ACROSS THE LAKE
INTO WEDNESDAY LEADING TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. NOT TOO
CONFIDENT IN HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES FROM MID WEEK ONWARD BUT THIS
BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN IN THE REGION LEADING TO FLUCTUATIONS IN WINDS.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1258 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1040 AM CDT
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THAT INCLUDE LOWERING
POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. STILL ANTICIPATE SCATTERED
STORMS...BUT AS NOTED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION THE CONCERNS LIMITING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ARE SHOWING UP IN OBSERVATIONAL FIELDS. THIS
ALSO SOMEWHAT TEMPERS THE CHANCES OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
A POTENT SHORT WAVE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO CENTRAL IA
CONTINUES TO WRAP NORTHEAST AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ND.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT WAS TRIGGERED BY THIS FADED BUT LEFT
ITS IMPRINT WITH MUCH DEBRIS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. THERE
IS EVEN 4000-6000FT CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THETA-E ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. AN ELEVATED OUTFLOW IS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
FROM NORTH CENTRAL IL SOUTHWARD TO THE ST LOUIS AREA. SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS TOWARD ST LOUIS AND DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL IL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME INTO THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG PLAYER.
THE DEBRIS CLOUD HAS BEGUN TO FADE ACROSS THE DVN CWA WITH
GRADUAL DESTABILIZING OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST FROM CENTRAL IA. AN ADAPTED 12Z DVN SOUNDING WOULD
INDICATE AROUND 83-84 DEGREES NEEDED FOR INITIATION OF CONVECTION
GIVEN THE MID 60S DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THAT AREA. BEING UNDER
THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AND STILL REALIZING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SEEN BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THAT AREA BUILDING SOUTHWARD WHILE OVERALL
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THE BETTER SHORT WAVE WILL
BE REMAINING MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A SECOND
MORE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVE FURTHER SOUTH. THAT GAP IN MORE
SUPPORTIVE MID-LEVEL FORCING COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER
LIMITING IMMEDIATE DESTABILIZATION OVER THE CWA HAS LED TO AN
EXPECTED LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS. WITH LESS STORMS/LESS COLD
POOLS THIS AFTERNOON COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TRUNCATED INTO
THE EVE.
WITH REGARD TO WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE CLEARING AREA
OF EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL...DUBUQUE IA OBSERVE A 40 MPH GUST.
PROFILER WINDS AND RAP SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST SUCH GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IF WE DO SCATTER...WHICH NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT WE WILL.
NORTH CENTRAL IL WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR SOME OF THOSE
GUSTS AS PRESSURE FALLS WILL ALSO ENCOMPASS THERE THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON. WITH ALREADY A 35 MPH GUST AT ROCKFORD...WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.
MTF/KJB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
306 AM CDT
FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING INCLUDE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...AND AN ACTIVE SUMMERTIME PATTERN
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND PROGGED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THEN
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS
THE PLAINS MOVING INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING THOUGH
HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING WITH DECREASING LIGHTNING COUNT
AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. EXTRAPOLATION
OF THE LINE HAS IT INTO OUR AREA MID MORNING SO EXPECT MUCH OF THE
MORNING TO REMAIN DRY.
AS THE UPPER WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...A BETTER
ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MINNESOTA THEN
LIFT NORTH INTO MANITOBA/QUEBEC THIS EVENING AND PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITHIN THIS FRONTAL TROUGH...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 80S WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT. THE CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT NARROW THOUGH WITH UPPER 40 TO LOW 50
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY FARTHER EAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN DRY WEATHER LOCALLY UNTIL THE FRONT NEARS. PARED BACK POPS
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING AS IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT ANY REMNANT
ACTIVITY FROM THE MCS WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST INTO THE CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE
UPPER JET. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS/CONCERNS TODAY FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT INCLUDE CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WHICH MAY TEMPER
OUR ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH APPEARS MARGINAL PER SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS. AND AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...NORTHWARD LIFTING LOW WILL STRETCH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INTO STRONG RIDGING ANCHORED IN THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...AN IDEA
SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND THE 00Z SPC 4KM WRF WHICH SHOWS FAIRLY
LIMITED ACTIVITY. SEVERE WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MIGHT BE POSSIBLE NEAR
INITIATION IF WINDS CAN REMAIN BACKED...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER MORE TO THE SSW WITH THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT. OVERALL...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
NOT ZERO BUT APPEARS UNIMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW COVERAGE.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FRONT STARTS TO
LAY OUT BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR
VECTORS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
AND POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS LINE
SETS UP...WHICH APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO LAY OUT AND STALL ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA WHILE MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WESTWARD SLIGHTLY WITH THERMAL RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS STARTING
TO WRAP BACK EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. H85 TEMPS WARM
TO AROUND 18C MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH HOWEVER...A LAKE BREEZE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DEVELOP MONDAY COOLING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE BACK
INTO THE 70S PERHAPS 60S RIGHT NEAR THE LAKE FRONT. H85 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM TUESDAY WITH SOME MODELS NOW SUGGESTING TEMPS TO
AROUND 23C WHICH WOULD EASILY SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE 90S PERHAPS MID
90S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX
NORTH OF US BY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE BETTER CONSENSUS IN PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...TAPERED POPS SOME ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND NUDGED
TEMPS UP TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GEMNH AND ECMWF WHICH
GAVE LOW TO MID 90S. CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHEST TEMPS REMAINS BEST IN
THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BE MOST REMOVED FROM ANY PRECIP/DEBRIS.
WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR CUT WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR OUTFLOW
AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND MAKING THE TEMP FORECAST A BIT MORE
TRICKY. WILL STICK TO THE CONSENSUS BLEND FOR NOW...BUT AGAIN
WEDNESDAY CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPS GETTING WELL INTO THE 90S IF THINGS
PLAY OUT RIGHT. WHEREVER THE THUNDERSTORMS END UP DEVELOPING THIS
PERIOD...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODEL SOLUTIONS QUICKLY DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH EITHER WAY IT APPEARS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DID NOT
STRAY FROM A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SOUTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30KT THROUGH 21Z-
22Z.
* SCATTERED STORMS MOVING ACROSS CHICAGO METRO AREA 21Z-00Z...WITH
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS NEAR THEM.
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBY OR CIGS AFTER DARK.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA
ALTHOUGH IT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30-33 KT
ACROSS CHICAGOLAND SITES AND EVEN HIGHER AT AND AROUND ROCKFORD.
THESE TYPE OF WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH 21Z OR SO AND
REMAIN FROM NEARLY DUE SOUTH.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THE CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL IL.
THIS WILL MOVE EAST ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON OVERALL
COVERAGE. THERE VERY LIKELY WILL BE AREAS NOT TO SEE ANY
STORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE OF AROUND 50 PERCENT HAS ALLOWED FOR
CONTINUED MENTION OF TSRA IN THE CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES. HIGH
RESOLUTION COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT STORMS
WILL BE EAST OF CHICAGOLAND SITES BY 00Z-01Z. WINDS WILL
POTENTIALLY BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY AROUND STORMS...INCLUDING EVEN
BRIEFLY EASTERLY IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF STORMS AS CLIMATOLOGY
SHOWS.
TONIGHT THE CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR VISBYS
OR CIGS TO DEVELOP. VISBYS WILL LIKELY BE MORE FAVORED IF RAINFALL
OCCURS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH THAT NEARLY DUE SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR
AROUND 30 KT.
* MEDIUM IN STORMS OCCURRING AT THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND
MEDIUM-HIGH IN TIMING.
* LOW IN WHETHER MVFR CIGS OR VISBYS WILL OCCUR AT THE AIRFIELD
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF PERIODIC TSRA.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
312 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM JAMES BAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA. THIS LOW WILL
THEN REACH EASTERN MANITOBA TONIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING AND TURN TO THE SOUTH
WHILE DOING SO. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 25-30 KT
SPEEDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE
INDIANA WATERS MAY SEE WINDS FALL BELOW CRITERIA A LITTLE EARLIER
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WILL CROSS THE
LAKE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BRINGING A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AS
WELL AS A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE ACROSS AT
LEAST NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND
MAY SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AGAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
TUESDAY AS A PORTION OF THE LOW TO THE WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO. A FRONT STRETCHING FROM THIS WEAKER LOW TO A BETTER
ORGANIZED LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY STALL ACROSS THE LAKE
INTO WEDNESDAY LEADING TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. NOT TOO
CONFIDENT IN HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES FROM MID WEEK ONWARD BUT THIS
BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN IN THE REGION LEADING TO FLUCTUATIONS IN WINDS.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1115 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1040 AM CDT
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THAT INCLUDE LOWERING
POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. STILL ANTICIPATE SCATTERED
STORMS...BUT AS NOTED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION THE CONCERNS LIMITING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ARE SHOWING UP IN OBSERVATIONAL FIELDS. THIS
ALSO SOMEWHAT TEMPERS THE CHANCES OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
A POTENT SHORT WAVE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO CENTRAL IA
CONTINUES TO WRAP NORTHEAST AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ND.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT WAS TRIGGERED BY THIS FADED BUT LEFT
ITS IMPRINT WITH MUCH DEBRIS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. THERE
IS EVEN 4000-6000FT CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THETA-E ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. AN ELEVATED OUTFLOW IS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
FROM NORTH CENTRAL IL SOUTHWARD TO THE ST LOUIS AREA. SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS TOWARD ST LOUIS AND DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL IL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME INTO THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG PLAYER.
THE DEBRIS CLOUD HAS BEGUN TO FADE ACROSS THE DVN CWA WITH
GRADUAL DESTABILIZING OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST FROM CENTRAL IA. AN ADAPTED 12Z DVN SOUNDING WOULD
INDICATE AROUND 83-84 DEGREES NEEDED FOR INITIATION OF CONVECTION
GIVEN THE MID 60S DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THAT AREA. BEING UNDER
THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AND STILL REALIZING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SEEN BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THAT AREA BUILDING SOUTHWARD WHILE OVERALL
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THE BETTER SHORT WAVE WILL
BE REMAINING MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A SECOND
MORE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVE FURTHER SOUTH. THAT GAP IN MORE
SUPPORTIVE MID-LEVEL FORCING COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER
LIMITING IMMEDIATE DESTABILIZATION OVER THE CWA HAS LED TO AN
EXPECTED LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS. WITH LESS STORMS/LESS COLD
POOLS THIS AFTERNOON COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TRUNCATED INTO
THE EVE.
WITH REGARD TO WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE CLEARING AREA
OF EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL...DUBUQUE IA OBSERVE A 40 MPH GUST.
PROFILER WINDS AND RAP SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST SUCH GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IF WE DO SCATTER...WHICH NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT WE WILL.
NORTH CENTRAL IL WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR SOME OF THOSE
GUSTS AS PRESSURE FALLS WILL ALSO ENCOMPASS THERE THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON. WITH ALREADY A 35 MPH GUST AT ROCKFORD...WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.
MTF/KJB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
306 AM CDT
FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING INCLUDE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...AND AN ACTIVE SUMMERTIME PATTERN
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND PROGGED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THEN
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS
THE PLAINS MOVING INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING THOUGH
HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING WITH DECREASING LIGHTNING COUNT
AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. EXTRAPOLATION
OF THE LINE HAS IT INTO OUR AREA MID MORNING SO EXPECT MUCH OF THE
MORNING TO REMAIN DRY.
AS THE UPPER WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...A BETTER
ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MINNESOTA THEN
LIFT NORTH INTO MANITOBA/QUEBEC THIS EVENING AND PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITHIN THIS FRONTAL TROUGH...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 80S WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT. THE CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT NARROW THOUGH WITH UPPER 40 TO LOW 50
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY FARTHER EAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN DRY WEATHER LOCALLY UNTIL THE FRONT NEARS. PARED BACK POPS
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING AS IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT ANY REMNANT
ACTIVITY FROM THE MCS WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST INTO THE CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE
UPPER JET. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS/CONCERNS TODAY FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT INCLUDE CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WHICH MAY TEMPER
OUR ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH APPEARS MARGINAL PER SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS. AND AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...NORTHWARD LIFTING LOW WILL STRETCH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INTO STRONG RIDGING ANCHORED IN THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...AN IDEA
SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND THE 00Z SPC 4KM WRF WHICH SHOWS FAIRLY
LIMITED ACTIVITY. SEVERE WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MIGHT BE POSSIBLE NEAR
INITIATION IF WINDS CAN REMAIN BACKED...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER MORE TO THE SSW WITH THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT. OVERALL...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
NOT ZERO BUT APPEARS UNIMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW COVERAGE.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FRONT STARTS TO
LAY OUT BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR
VECTORS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
AND POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS LINE
SETS UP...WHICH APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO LAY OUT AND STALL ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA WHILE MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WESTWARD SLIGHTLY WITH THERMAL RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS STARTING
TO WRAP BACK EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. H85 TEMPS WARM
TO AROUND 18C MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH HOWEVER...A LAKE BREEZE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DEVELOP MONDAY COOLING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE BACK
INTO THE 70S PERHAPS 60S RIGHT NEAR THE LAKE FRONT. H85 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM TUESDAY WITH SOME MODELS NOW SUGGESTING TEMPS TO
AROUND 23C WHICH WOULD EASILY SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE 90S PERHAPS MID
90S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX
NORTH OF US BY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE BETTER CONSENSUS IN PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...TAPERED POPS SOME ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND NUDGED
TEMPS UP TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GEMNH AND ECMWF WHICH
GAVE LOW TO MID 90S. CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHEST TEMPS REMAINS BEST IN
THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BE MOST REMOVED FROM ANY PRECIP/DEBRIS.
WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR CUT WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR OUTFLOW
AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND MAKING THE TEMP FORECAST A BIT MORE
TRICKY. WILL STICK TO THE CONSENSUS BLEND FOR NOW...BUT AGAIN
WEDNESDAY CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPS GETTING WELL INTO THE 90S IF THINGS
PLAY OUT RIGHT. WHEREVER THE THUNDERSTORMS END UP DEVELOPING THIS
PERIOD...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODEL SOLUTIONS QUICKLY DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH EITHER WAY IT APPEARS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DID NOT
STRAY FROM A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* SOUTH WINDS GUSTING 23-30KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
* TIMING AND COVERAGE OF TSRA THIS MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVE.
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS OR VSBY TONIGHT.
MTF/MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW/NC/W IL
AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LIKELY MOVING OVER
THE CHICAGO METRO REGION DURING THE 21Z-00Z PERIOD. THE DEGREE OF
COVERAGE IS FAVORED TO BE LESS THAN EARLIER THOUGHT DUE TO LESS
DESTABILIZATION...AROUND 50 PERCENT COVERAGE ANTICIPATED BY THE
TIME THE AXIS OF SHOWERS/STORMS REACH CHICAGO. HAVE PREFERRED TO
KEEP THE TEMPO FOR THUNDER AT THIS TIME...BUT LIMITED THE
DURATION.
PREV DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LOW PRESSURE IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS MINNESOTA TODAY. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN WEAKENING ACROSS IOWA AND
MISSOURI...WITH THE FOCUS ACROSS OKLAHOMA. OUTFLOW FROM THE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA
GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS. AT ITS CURRENT
SPEED THIS BOUNDARY WILL REACH RFD 14/15Z AND THE CHICAGO AREA A
FEW HOURS AFTER THAT. THE BOUNDARY MAY SLOW SOME AS IT WORKS
EASTWARD. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT IS NOT TERRIBLY FAVORABLE FOR NEW
DEVELOPMENT OR EVEN MAINTENANCE OF OLD DEVELOPMENT DUE IN PART TO
ABUNDANT CLOUD SHIELD NOW OVERHEAD SO AM THINKING THAT THERE WILL
BE ONLY MINIMAL COVERAGE OF SOME SHOWERS/ISOLD TSRA DURING THE
MID/LATE MORNING...IF EVEN THAT MUCH. SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT
RANGE...LIKELY INCREASING TO THE 25-30 KT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD COVER MAY END UP TEMPERING GUSTS.
A COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY AND SHOULD BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...BUT THE FRONT
WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST. RFD REMAINS THE WILDCARD AS
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP JUST TO ITS EAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH TEMPO TS MENTION BECAUSE THERE IS NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT
TO SAY RFD WILL BE WEST OF THE DEVELOPING STORMS. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE BEST WINDOW
FOR THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND SLIGHTLY LATER AT GYY. THERE MAY BE GAPS IN COVERAGE
SO HAVE RETAINED TEMPO TSRA FOR NOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER
AFTER THE MAIN STORMS CLEAR TO THE EAST AND MVFR CIGS WILL TRY TO
DEVELOP. DO NOT HAVE A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW CEILINGS
WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BUT MVFR MAY CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST SEVERAL HOURS AND POSSIBLY THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT SO SITES THAT SEE RAINFALL MAY SEE
AT LEAST MVFR VSBY REDUCTION LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT MONDAY MORNING FAVORING A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH IN WINDS BEING 170 THROUGH 18Z-20Z...MEDIUM IN GUST
MAGNITUDE.
* MEDIUM OF TSRA OCCURRING. MEDIUM-HIGH IN TIMING WINDOW IF IT
DOES OCCUR.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
MTF/MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF PERIODIC TSRA.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
312 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM JAMES BAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA. THIS LOW WILL
THEN REACH EASTERN MANITOBA TONIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING AND TURN TO THE SOUTH
WHILE DOING SO. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 25-30 KT
SPEEDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE
INDIANA WATERS MAY SEE WINDS FALL BELOW CRITERIA A LITTLE EARLIER
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WILL CROSS THE
LAKE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BRINGING A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AS
WELL AS A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE ACROSS AT
LEAST NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND
MAY SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AGAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
TUESDAY AS A PORTION OF THE LOW TO THE WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO. A FRONT STRETCHING FROM THIS WEAKER LOW TO A BETTER
ORGANIZED LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY STALL ACROSS THE LAKE
INTO WEDNESDAY LEADING TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. NOT TOO
CONFIDENT IN HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES FROM MID WEEK ONWARD BUT THIS
BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN IN THE REGION LEADING TO FLUCTUATIONS IN WINDS.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1051 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1040 AM CDT
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THAT INCLUDE LOWERING
POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. STILL ANTICIPATE SCATTERED
STORMS...BUT AS NOTED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION THE CONCERNS LIMITING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ARE SHOWING UP IN OBSERVATIONAL FIELDS. THIS
ALSO SOMEWHAT TEMPERS THE CHANCES OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
A POTENT SHORT WAVE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO CENTRAL IA
CONTINUES TO WRAP NORTHEAST AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ND.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT WAS TRIGGERED BY THIS FADED BUT LEFT
ITS IMPRINT WITH MUCH DEBRIS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. THERE
IS EVEN 4000-6000FT CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THETA-E ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. AN ELEVATED OUTFLOW IS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
FROM NORTH CENTRAL IL SOUTHWARD TO THE ST LOUIS AREA. SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS TOWARD ST LOUIS AND DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL IL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME INTO THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG PLAYER.
THE DEBRIS CLOUD HAS BEGUN TO FADE ACROSS THE DVN CWA WITH
GRADUAL DESTABILIZING OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST FROM CENTRAL IA. AN ADAPTED 12Z DVN SOUNDING WOULD
INDICATE AROUND 83-84 DEGREES NEEDED FOR INITIATION OF CONVECTION
GIVEN THE MID 60S DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THAT AREA. BEING UNDER
THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AND STILL REALIZING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SEEN BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THAT AREA BUILDING SOUTHWARD WHILE OVERALL
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THE BETTER SHORT WAVE WILL
BE REMAINING MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A SECOND
MORE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVE FURTHER SOUTH. THAT GAP IN MORE
SUPPORTIVE MID-LEVEL FORCING COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER
LIMITING IMMEDIATE DESTABILIZATION OVER THE CWA HAS LED TO AN
EXPECTED LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS. WITH LESS STORMS/LESS COLD
POOLS THIS AFTERNOON COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TRUNCATED INTO
THE EVE.
WITH REGARD TO WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE CLEARING AREA
OF EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL...DUBUQUE IA OBSERVE A 40 MPH GUST.
PROFILER WINDS AND RAP SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST SUCH GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IF WE DO SCATTER...WHICH NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT WE WILL.
NORTH CENTRAL IL WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR SOME OF THOSE
GUSTS AS PRESSURE FALLS WILL ALSO ENCOMPASS THERE THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON. WITH ALREADY A 35 MPH GUST AT ROCKFORD...WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.
MTF/KJB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
306 AM CDT
FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING INCLUDE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...AND AN ACTIVE SUMMERTIME PATTERN
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND PROGGED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THEN
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS
THE PLAINS MOVING INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING THOUGH
HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING WITH DECREASING LIGHTNING COUNT
AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. EXTRAPOLATION
OF THE LINE HAS IT INTO OUR AREA MID MORNING SO EXPECT MUCH OF THE
MORNING TO REMAIN DRY.
AS THE UPPER WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...A BETTER
ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MINNESOTA THEN
LIFT NORTH INTO MANITOBA/QUEBEC THIS EVENING AND PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITHIN THIS FRONTAL TROUGH...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 80S WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT. THE CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT NARROW THOUGH WITH UPPER 40 TO LOW 50
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY FARTHER EAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN DRY WEATHER LOCALLY UNTIL THE FRONT NEARS. PARED BACK POPS
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING AS IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT ANY REMNANT
ACTIVITY FROM THE MCS WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST INTO THE CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE
UPPER JET. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS/CONCERNS TODAY FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT INCLUDE CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WHICH MAY TEMPER
OUR ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH APPEARS MARGINAL PER SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS. AND AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...NORTHWARD LIFTING LOW WILL STRETCH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INTO STRONG RIDGING ANCHORED IN THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...AN IDEA
SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND THE 00Z SPC 4KM WRF WHICH SHOWS FAIRLY
LIMITED ACTIVITY. SEVERE WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MIGHT BE POSSIBLE NEAR
INITIATION IF WINDS CAN REMAIN BACKED...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER MORE TO THE SSW WITH THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT. OVERALL...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
NOT ZERO BUT APPEARS UNIMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW COVERAGE.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FRONT STARTS TO
LAY OUT BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR
VECTORS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
AND POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS LINE
SETS UP...WHICH APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO LAY OUT AND STALL ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA WHILE MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WESTWARD SLIGHTLY WITH THERMAL RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS STARTING
TO WRAP BACK EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. H85 TEMPS WARM
TO AROUND 18C MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH HOWEVER...A LAKE BREEZE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DEVELOP MONDAY COOLING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE BACK
INTO THE 70S PERHAPS 60S RIGHT NEAR THE LAKE FRONT. H85 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM TUESDAY WITH SOME MODELS NOW SUGGESTING TEMPS TO
AROUND 23C WHICH WOULD EASILY SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE 90S PERHAPS MID
90S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX
NORTH OF US BY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE BETTER CONSENSUS IN PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...TAPERED POPS SOME ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND NUDGED
TEMPS UP TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GEMNH AND ECMWF WHICH
GAVE LOW TO MID 90S. CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHEST TEMPS REMAINS BEST IN
THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BE MOST REMOVED FROM ANY PRECIP/DEBRIS.
WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR CUT WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR OUTFLOW
AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND MAKING THE TEMP FORECAST A BIT MORE
TRICKY. WILL STICK TO THE CONSENSUS BLEND FOR NOW...BUT AGAIN
WEDNESDAY CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPS GETTING WELL INTO THE 90S IF THINGS
PLAY OUT RIGHT. WHEREVER THE THUNDERSTORMS END UP DEVELOPING THIS
PERIOD...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODEL SOLUTIONS QUICKLY DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH EITHER WAY IT APPEARS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DID NOT
STRAY FROM A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* SOUTH WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND 25 TO POSSIBLY 30 KT GUSTS EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON.
* TIMING AND COVERAGE OF TSRA THIS MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVE.
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS OR VSBY TONIGHT.
MTF/MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LOW PRESSURE IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS MINNESOTA TODAY. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN WEAKENING ACROSS IOWA AND
MISSOURI...WITH THE FOCUS ACROSS OKLAHOMA. OUTFLOW FROM THE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA
GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS. AT ITS CURRENT
SPEED THIS BOUNDARY WILL REACH RFD 14/15Z AND THE CHICAGO AREA A
FEW HOURS AFTER THAT. THE BOUNDARY MAY SLOW SOME AS IT WORKS
EASTWARD. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT IS NOT TERRIBLY FAVORABLE FOR NEW
DEVELOPMENT OR EVEN MAINTENANCE OF OLD DEVELOPMENT DUE IN PART TO
ABUNDANT CLOUD SHIELD NOW OVERHEAD SO AM THINKING THAT THERE WILL
BE ONLY MINIMAL COVERAGE OF SOME SHOWERS/ISOLD TSRA DURING THE
MID/LATE MORNING...IF EVEN THAT MUCH. SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT
RANGE...LIKELY INCREASING TO THE 25-30 KT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD COVER MAY END UP TEMPERING GUSTS.
A COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY AND SHOULD BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...BUT THE FRONT
WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST. RFD REMAINS THE WILDCARD AS
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP JUST TO ITS EAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH TEMPO TS MENTION BECAUSE THERE IS NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT
TO SAY RFD WILL BE WEST OF THE DEVELOPING STORMS. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE BEST WINDOW
FOR THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND SLIGHTLY LATER AT GYY. THERE MAY BE GAPS IN COVERAGE
SO HAVE RETAINED TEMPO TSRA FOR NOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER
AFTER THE MAIN STORMS CLEAR TO THE EAST AND MVFR CIGS WILL TRY TO
DEVELOP. DO NOT HAVE A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW CEILINGS
WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BUT MVFR MAY CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST SEVERAL HOURS AND POSSIBLY THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT SO SITES THAT SEE RAINFALL MAY SEE
AT LEAST MVFR VSBY REDUCTION LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT MONDAY MORNING FAVORING A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH IN WINDS BEING 170 THROUGH 19Z-20Z...MEDIUM IN GUST
MAGNITUDE.
* MEDIUM OF TSRA OCCURRING. MEDIUM-HIGH IN TIMING WINDOW IF IT
DOES OCCUR.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
MTF/MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF PERIODIC TSRA.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
312 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM JAMES BAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA. THIS LOW WILL
THEN REACH EASTERN MANITOBA TONIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING AND TURN TO THE SOUTH
WHILE DOING SO. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 25-30 KT
SPEEDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE
INDIANA WATERS MAY SEE WINDS FALL BELOW CRITERIA A LITTLE EARLIER
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WILL CROSS THE
LAKE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BRINGING A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AS
WELL AS A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE ACROSS AT
LEAST NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND
MAY SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AGAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
TUESDAY AS A PORTION OF THE LOW TO THE WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO. A FRONT STRETCHING FROM THIS WEAKER LOW TO A BETTER
ORGANIZED LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY STALL ACROSS THE LAKE
INTO WEDNESDAY LEADING TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. NOT TOO
CONFIDENT IN HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES FROM MID WEEK ONWARD BUT THIS
BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN IN THE REGION LEADING TO FLUCTUATIONS IN WINDS.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1235 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN MOISTURE TO NORTHERN TO NORTHWEST
IOWA OVERNIGHT AND THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS INTACT AS THE
CURRENT SLOW MOVING CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA PRODUCING SOME EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL TAKE ITS TIME GETTING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THE 15.00Z HOPWRF AND THE 15.02Z HRRR HAVE THE STORMS PIVOTING
INTO WESTERN CWA BY B/T 08-10Z. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS
THEY MOVE EAST WITH THE LACK OF ANY INSTABILITY EAST OF INTERSTATE
35. WITH THE FURTHER DELAY OF CONVECTION...DES MOINES TO WATERLOO
AND SOUTHEAST LIKELY NOT SEE RAIN UNTIL AFTER 10Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS LIFTED OUT OF THE STATE FOR
THE MOST PART WITH ONLY SHOWERS REMAINING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE A STRONG LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE MOISTURE RIBBON JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND MOVE IN TO THE CWA TONIGHT. INITIAL CONVECTION WILL BE
OF ALL MODES OF CONVECTION...EXPECTED TO SEE IT DEVELOP INTO MORE
OF A WIND EVENT WITH TIME CARRIED SEVERE WORDING INTO THE PREDAWN
HOURS. WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTH...WITH ISSUE A FFA FOR THE NORTHERN 2 TO 3 TIERS OF COUNTIES
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE 1 TO
1.5 THEY HAD TODAY. LOCAL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
SOME LINGERING STORMS MAY BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INITIALLY
SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE CWA WITH WEAK CAA
AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN. THEREFORE EXPECT
SKIES TO CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY...WITH A MILD DAY IN STORE.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST INTO
MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN FLOW EXPECTED
TO KICK OFF CONVECTION ACROSS WRN NE/NWRN KS SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DEVELOP THIS INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT AND SWING IT THROUGH IOWA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEREFORE HAVE ADDED IN SOME POPS ACROSS
THE CWA MONDAY FOR THIS TREND. OTHERWISE ACTIVE PATTERN STILL
SETTING UP FOR THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH OVERALL PATTERN EXPECTED TO
HAVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAY UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH ENERGY
CONTINUING TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN US TROUGH SETTING OFF
CONVECTION DAILY ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH FINER DETAILS STILL
UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE HAVE MAINLY BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK WITH BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED DURING THE
DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. UPPER LOW
THEN TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WARMER
INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY AROUND 90 AT TIMES WITH H85 TEMPS
HOVERING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND +20C OR HIGHER THROUGH THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...15/06Z
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH MUCH OF THE TAF AREA RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN
AND SEVERE WX. FOD AND POSSIBLY MCW BETTER POTENTIAL BUT ONLY HAVE
MVFR CIGS/VIS MENTIONED FOR A SHORT TIME FRAME OVERNIGHT AS STORMS
LOOK TO BE SLOW TO GET THROUGH THE STATE. OTHERWISE...WEAK CAA
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND HAVE WINDS AOA 12 KNOTS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CALHOUN-
CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PODRAZIK
SHORT TERM...MS JUN 14
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
342 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
THE OVERNIGHT MCS HAS LEFT A COOLER AND CLOUDY DAY IN IT`S WAKE
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THROUGHOUT THE REST OF KANSAS SKIES
ARE CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S LOW 80S.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
TONIGHT:
THE CONCERN FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS
WANING...AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. MIXED LAYER CIN IS AROUND 200 J/KG WITH ONLY 500 J/KG CAPE AS
OF 3PM FROM SPC MESO ANALYSIS. THINK THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
DAYTIME CONVECTION AT BAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
DAYTIME RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...LATER
TONIGHT THINGS WILL CHANGE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND WITH PLENTIFUL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
OR MOVE IN FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN TIME
FRAME OF CONCERN WILL BE BETWEEN 10PM- MORNING. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED AND
GUSTY WINDS TO 60 MPH. MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MY MONDAY MORNING AND
AS SKIES CLEAR THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT.
MONDAY - WEDNESDAY:
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WARM AND WINDY. KANSAS WILL SIT
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THE GULF WIDE OPEN. AS A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS MONDAY...SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ON
MONDAY THAN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH WINDS APPROACHING THE 30 MPH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...AS FORECAST WINDS ARE JUST SKIRTING THE
CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE REGION...HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100 IN A FEW
PLACES.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE AS THE NEXT
UPPER WAVE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
THE NEXT FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE MAIN UPPER
DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT GETS CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN
FLOW AND HOVERS OVER NORTH DAKOTA/CANADA BORDER. THIS PUSHES THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MORE OF A ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW. BECAUSE OF THIS THE EXTENDED
HAS PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT. RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT OCCUR
ALL THE TIME...BUT EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS DIFFICULT WITH
THE DESCREPANCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME PERIODS
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS
DIURNAL MIXING OVERCOMES MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION. KICT AND KCNU WILL FLIRT WITH HIGH-END MVFR AND LOW-
END VFR CIGS MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY
MID-AFTERNOON.
NEXT CONCERN ARISES WITH THREAT OF REPEAT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MESOSCALE MODELS NOT TOO
BULLISH ON REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GIVEN LACK OF
STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISM. THUS...DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE
TREND OF LEAVING THREAT OF STORMS OUT OF FORECAST FOR THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY
SINCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP WEAK CAP IN PLACE. BETTER CHANCES OF
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION AS APPROACHING SHORT WAVE STRENGTHEN MID-UPR
WINDS AND ENHANCES LOW- LEVEL JET.
SECONDARY CONCERN IS FOR MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING OR ADVECTING INTO
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THIS EVENING. RUC/NAM/HRRR ALL BEGIN
TO INCREASE MOIST ADVECTION AT OR BELOW 2000 FEET. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON TIMING AND EXACT HEIGHT OF CLOUD BASE GIVEN MIXED SIGNALS
IN GUIDANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 71 94 74 92 / 10 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 70 94 74 94 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 69 92 73 92 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 69 90 73 90 / 20 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 71 92 74 90 / 20 10 10 10
RUSSELL 66 96 73 97 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 67 96 72 96 / 10 10 10 10
SALINA 69 94 75 95 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 69 93 73 93 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 71 90 73 89 / 50 10 10 10
CHANUTE 70 90 72 89 / 30 10 10 10
IOLA 69 90 72 89 / 30 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 70 89 74 89 / 50 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
330 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
THE OVERNIGHT MCS HAS LEFT A COOLER AND CLOUDY DAY IN IT`S WAKE
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THROUGHOUT THE REST OF KANSAS SKIES
ARE CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S LOW 80S.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
TONIGHT:
THE CONCERN FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS
WANING...AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. MIXED LAYER CIN IS AROUND 200 J/KG WITH ONLY 500 J/KG CAPE AS
OF 3PM FROM SPC MESO ANALYSIS. THINK THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
DAYTIME CONVECTION AT BAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
DAYTIME RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...LATER
TONIGHT THINGS WILL CHANGE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND WITH PLENTIFUL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
OR MOVE IN FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN TIME
FRAME OF CONCERN WILL BE BETWEEN 10PM- MORNING. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LARGE MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MY
MONDAY MORNING AND AS SKIES CLEAR THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT.
MONDAY - WEDNESDAY:
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WARM AND WINDY. KANSAS WILL SIT
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THE GULF WIDE OPEN. AS A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS MONDAY...SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ON
MONDAY THAN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH WINDS APPROACHING THE 30 MPH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...AS FORECAST WINDS ARE JUST SKIRTING THE
CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE REGION...HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100 IN A FEW
PLACES.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE AS THE NEXT
UPPER WAVE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
THE NEXT FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE MAIN UPPER
DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT GETS CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN
FLOW AND HOVERS OVER NORTH DAKOTA/CANADA BORDER. THIS PUSHES THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MORE OF A ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW. BECAUSE OF THIS THE EXTENDED
HAS PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT. RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT OCCUR
ALL THE TIME...BUT EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS DIFFICULT WITH
THE DESCREPANCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME PERIODS
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS
DIURNAL MIXING OVERCOMES MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION. KICT AND KCNU WILL FLIRT WITH HIGH-END MVFR AND LOW-
END VFR CIGS MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY
MID-AFTERNOON.
NEXT CONCERN ARISES WITH THREAT OF REPEAT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MESOSCALE MODELS NOT TOO
BULLISH ON REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GIVEN LACK OF
STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISM. THUS...DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE
TREND OF LEAVING THREAT OF STORMS OUT OF FORECAST FOR THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY
SINCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP WEAK CAP IN PLACE. BETTER CHANCES OF
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION AS APPROACHING SHORT WAVE STRENGTHEN MID-UPR
WINDS AND ENHANCES LOW- LEVEL JET.
SECONDARY CONCERN IS FOR MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING OR ADVECTING INTO
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THIS EVENING. RUC/NAM/HRRR ALL BEGIN
TO INCREASE MOIST ADVECTION AT OR BELOW 2000 FEET. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON TIMING AND EXACT HEIGHT OF CLOUD BASE GIVEN MIXED SIGNALS
IN GUIDANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 71 94 74 92 / 10 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 70 94 74 94 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 69 92 73 92 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 69 90 73 90 / 20 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 71 92 74 90 / 20 10 10 10
RUSSELL 66 96 73 97 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 67 96 72 96 / 10 10 10 10
SALINA 69 94 75 95 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 69 93 73 93 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 71 90 73 89 / 50 10 10 10
CHANUTE 70 90 72 89 / 30 10 10 10
IOLA 69 90 72 89 / 30 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 70 89 74 89 / 50 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1138 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
Line of storms has been producing wind gusts between 60 and 80
MPH. All the short term guidance continues to bring the linear MCS
across the forecast area through the morning. With the NAM and RAP
showing little convective inhibition ahead of the frontal boundary
(CNK is still in the upper 70s with dewpoints in the upper 60s),
think there is threat for damaging straight line winds.
UPDATE Issued at 949 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
The tornado threat appears to have diminished across Republic and
Cloud counties due to the discrete storms lifting into NEB.
However the overall threat for severe storms still remains
overnight from the storms in northwest KS that are producing
damaging straight line winds. After collaborating with media and
EM partners, we felt it was better to go ahead and cancel the
tornado watch now while storms are still a couple hours away. Then
we`ll deal with the northwest KS convection as it gets closer.
The latest RAP and NAM forecasts show surface based CIN remaining
near zero along and just ahead of the frontal boundary with some
instability and increasing deep layer shear. Because of this we
are anticipating that the damaging wind threat could persist
through the early morning hours as the storms move east.
&&
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
The main focus for the short term is on the potential for strong to
severe storms to develop late tonight through the overnight hours.
Water vapor imagery showed the mid-level low centered over Montana,
with the trough continuing to dig southward across the Rockies as it
pivots eastward. Models show this mid-level low remaining fairly
stationary into Sunday morning with the trough pivoting eastward
into the High Plains late tonight. This advancing trough will help
to push the area of low pressure currently situated over western
Kansas further east across the region. The combination of the
associated cold front and an embedded shortwave that models show
developing over northwest KS and tracking into southeast NE should
help to support the development of thunderstorms late tonight
through the overnight hours. Latest short range models show the
potential for a few discrete supercells developing near the
strengthening dryline and advancing cold front over northwest Kansas
and tracking northeastward into southern Kansas. These discrete
storms may barely clip far north central Kansas early this evening.
With the cap steadily weakening across that region, MUCAPE values
reaching into the 2500-3500 J/kg range, and steep lapse rates in the
mid-levels, these storms would likely be severe. However, it`s worth
noting that this area of instability is not co-located with the best
shear (which is further west), but still would expect 0-6km bulk
shear values of 30kts to possibly 40kts. The primary severe threats
over far north central Kansas would be large hail and damaging
winds, however with decent low-level helicities in place, cannot
rule out the potential for an isolated tornado or two in that
region.
As the embedded shortwave catches up with the cold front late
tonight, models have been suggesting that a QLCS may develop over
western/central Kansas and track eastward through the overnight
hours into Sunday morning. Models are in fairly good agreement in
having the cold front move into north central Kansas by 05z-06z and
along a line stretching from Hiawatha to Topeka by around 12z. Most
of the precipitation should be focused along and behind the front,
however could see some scattered storms develop ahead of the front
along any outflow boundaries. This line of storms is progged to
enter into far north central KS between 04z-06z and gradually
progress eastward through the overnight hours. While these storms
should weaken some as they track eastward, there still looks to be
enough instability and shear to support some severe thunderstorms
with large hail and damaging winds. The main concern through the
overnight period will be the potential for damaging straight line
winds as a very strong southwesterly low-level jet (60-70kts at
850MB) develops over central KS by 06z. Even though this low-level
jet will weaken some as it moves east, 0-6km bulk shear should be
upwards of 40-50kts.
By Sunday morning, this activity should be focused across far
northeast and east central Kansas. Models show the cold front
tracking just south of the forecast area by late morning, but it may
stall out over southeast KS and southern Missouri through the day.
As a result, could see additional shower and thunderstorm
development along this boundary extend as far north as into east
central Kansas. With 2000-3000J/kg of MUCAPE and 30-40kts of 0-6km
bulk shear, any storms that were to develop over east central KS
could become strong to severe with large hail and strong winds
possible.
As for temperatures, increased cloud cover tonight will keep
temperatures warmer across eastern KS (into the upper 60s/near 70
degrees), but may cool into the lower 60s over north central KS
after the storms track to the east. Highs for Sunday should reach
into the low/mid 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
By Sunday evening the cold front that pushes through the area will
stall out over SE KS as the mid/upper low lifts northeast into
Canada. Shower and thunderstorm develop is possible along this
boundary in far SE KS during the evening hours. Overnight the front
lifts northward as the return flow becomes established and low level
moisture increases. Precip chances appear to linger into Monday
morning until clearing out in the afternoon. High temps warm
into the low to mid 90s with the arrival of southwest flow and
warmer 850 MB temps. The dewpoints will also remain high and low
temps struggle to drop below the mid 70s on Monday night. Tuesday
should be mostly dry with high temps again in the low to mid 90s.
On Wednesday a strong mid/upper level trough digs into the central
Rockies, and as it approaches the models are suggesting a possible
lead short wave that would cause showers and thunderstorms during
the afternoon and evening. Although there is model disagreement on
the exact track and timing of these weak disturbances. On Wednesday
night the main trough lifts into the plains causing more widespread
precip across the region. A cold front is forecast to pass through
the area sometime on Thursday and or Friday therefore keeping the
chance for showers and thunderstorms around. The models do disagree
on if the trough that lifts out stays together as one piece of
energy or there is more phasing. This will play a role in the speed
of the front as well as if a surface low occludes and slowly drifts
through the northern plains and upper Midwest. Temps later in the
week will be regulated by the increased precip chances and possible
cloud cover. High temps generally stay in the 80s with lows in the
60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
Have made some minor timing adjustments to when convection should
impact the terminals. Otherwise the forecast seems to be on track.
There is the potential for brief IFR conditions as the convection
moves through.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
630 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
SOME ISOLATED PULSY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO
INCREASE ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL AS CHANCES OF SPRINKLES FURTHER
NORTHWARD...COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. STILL EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS TO DIE DOWN SHORTLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO DECIDED TO UPDATE THE SKY GRIDS TO
BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND A DIMINISHING TREND INTO THE
EVENING. WENT AHEAD AND LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE
TO MAKE SURE ONGOING GRIDS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE
WELL REFLECTIVE OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF KENTUCKY WHILE A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...IS SLOWLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE EXIT OF
THE HIGH HAS ALLOWED WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO EAST
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THOUGH
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY HAS GONE PARTLY CLOUDY DUE TO
SOME HEALTHY CU DEVELOPMENT. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP DRAMATICALLY
WITH READINGS NOW IN THE MID 60S FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWA AND LOW 60S TO THE NORTH. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KTS HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY RECENTLY. ALSO RECENTLY...SOME LIGHT RETURNS HAVE
SHOWN UP ON RADAR OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT THE CONTINUING INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK. A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LIFT INTO
CENTRAL CANADA...NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AN INTO THE DAY
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO...ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN...
BUT NOT BEFORE DRAGGING THE REMAINS OF SOME ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
ITS TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER HEIGHTS LOCALLY INTO THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE STORM TRACK IS
SHUNTED EVEN FURTHER NORTH. DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE
WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME SPRINKLES AND A STRAY SHOWER
AROUND THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
BEFORE EVERYTHING CLEARS OUT INCLUDING THE BULK OF THE CU. THIS WILL
SET UP ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING INDUCED RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES...THOUGH LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF VALLEY FOG
LATE TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND DEWPOINTS
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT. FOR MONDAY...THE REMAINS OF THE
500MB TROUGH...SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS...AND A WEAKENING FRONT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY...
MAINLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF BY
EVENING AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT...INTO THE EVENING. MORE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUDS ON MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALL CATEGORY ALONG WITH ANY FOG
CONFINED TO JUST THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS.
ONCE AGAIN STARTED WITH THE BCCONSSHORT FOR T/TD AND WINDS THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE CONTINUING WITH BCCONSALL. DID MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE VALLEY AND RIDGE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT MONDAY NIGHT...DUE TO SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR
POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE KEPT THEM LOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
PATTERN IN PLACE. PERSISTENT MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDE OVER THE RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A PERSISTENT TROUGH MAINTAINS
ITSELF OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THE ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW DOES NOT
TRACK INTO THE UPPER PLAINS UNTIL FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AT THE
END OF THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR AVAILABLE. THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP SOME
AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE OVERALL PATTERN UNTIL THE END
OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE BLOCKING.
THE CONSISTENCY LEAVES MORE TO BE DESIRED WITH THE MODELS. WITH THIS
PATTERN IN PLACE...IT BECOMES DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY RULING OUT POPS
ON ANY DAY EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. ON THE OTHER END...IT IS DIFFICULT
TO JUSTIFY PUTTING IN ANY GOOD CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME
LEVEL MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE NEARLY EVERYDAY IN THE COMING
WEEK. AS SUCH...HAVE TAILORED THIS WITH THE RESULTS OF THE ALL MODEL
BLEND AND REDUCED THEM BELOW GOOD CHANCE OR BELOW 50. FOR TUESDAY
WITH REMNANTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD...SOME SPRINKLES MAY
POP UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HIGH TERRAIN. A FEW DISTURBANCES
PASSING ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM COUPLED WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE
WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY TIME-FRAME BUT MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON EACH
DAY.
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM AS WELL WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL CREEP
TO AND POSSIBLY PAST THE 90 DEGREE MARK. A WARM AND HUMID
UNCOMFORTABLE WEEK LOOKS TO BE IN STORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WX THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FRONT BRUSHES BY.
HAVE ADDED A PREVAILING VCTS FOR THIS FROM LATE MORNING ON AT JKL AND
SJS WHILE LEAVING OUT OF THE OTHER SITES FOR NOW. EXPECT ANY FOG
TONIGHT TO BE CONFINED TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND LEAVE THE TAF SITES
UNBLEMISHED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
350 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF KENTUCKY WHILE A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...IS SLOWLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE EXIT OF
THE HIGH HAS ALLOWED WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO EAST
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THOUGH
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY HAS GONE PARTLY CLOUDY DUE TO
SOME HEALTHY CU DEVELOPMENT. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP DRAMATICALLY
WITH READINGS NOW IN THE MID 60S FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWA AND LOW 60S TO THE NORTH. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KTS HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY RECENTLY. ALSO RECENTLY...SOME LIGHT RETURNS HAVE
SHOWN UP ON RADAR OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT THE CONTINUING INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK. A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LIFT INTO
CENTRAL CANADA...NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AN INTO THE DAY
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO...ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN...
BUT NOT BEFORE DRAGGING THE REMAINS OF SOME ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
ITS TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER HEIGHTS LOCALLY INTO THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE STORM TRACK IS
SHUNTED EVEN FURTHER NORTH. DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE
WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME SPRINKLES AND A STRAY SHOWER
AROUND THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
BEFORE EVERYTHING CLEARS OUT INCLUDING THE BULK OF THE CU. THIS WILL
SET UP ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING INDUCED RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES...THOUGH LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF VALLEY FOG
LATE TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND DEWPOINTS
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT. FOR MONDAY...THE REMAINS OF THE
500MB TROUGH...SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS...AND A WEAKENING FRONT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY...
MAINLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF BY
EVENING AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT...INTO THE EVENING. MORE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUDS ON MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALL CATEGORY ALONG WITH ANY FOG
CONFINED TO JUST THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS.
ONCE AGAIN STARTED WITH THE BCCONSSHORT FOR T/TD AND WINDS THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE CONTINUING WITH BCCONSALL. DID MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE VALLEY AND RIDGE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT MONDAY NIGHT...DUE TO SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR
POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE KEPT THEM LOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
PATTERN IN PLACE. PERSISTENT MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDE OVER THE RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A PERSISTENT TROUGH MAINTAINS
ITSELF OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THE ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW DOES NOT
TRACK INTO THE UPPER PLAINS UNTIL FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AT THE
END OF THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR AVAILABLE. THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP SOME
AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE OVERALL PATTERN UNTIL THE END
OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE BLOCKING.
THE CONSISTENCY LEAVES MORE TO BE DESIRED WITH THE MODELS. WITH THIS
PATTERN IN PLACE...IT BECOMES DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY RULING OUT POPS
ON ANY DAY EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. ON THE OTHER END...IT IS DIFFICULT
TO JUSTIFY PUTTING IN ANY GOOD CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME
LEVEL MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE NEARLY EVERYDAY IN THE COMING
WEEK. AS SUCH...HAVE TAILORED THIS WITH THE RESULTS OF THE ALL MODEL
BLEND AND REDUCED THEM BELOW GOOD CHANCE OR BELOW 50. FOR TUESDAY
WITH REMNANTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD...SOME SPRINKLES MAY
POP UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HIGH TERRAIN. A FEW DISTURBANCES
PASSING ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM COUPLED WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE
WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY TIME-FRAME BUT MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON EACH
DAY.
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM AS WELL WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL CREEP
TO AND POSSIBLY PAST THE 90 DEGREE MARK. A WARM AND HUMID
UNCOMFORTABLE WEEK LOOKS TO BE IN STORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WX THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FRONT BRUSHES BY.
HAVE ADDED A PREVAILING VCTS FOR THIS FROM LATE MORNING ON AT JKL AND
SJS WHILE LEAVING OUT OF THE OTHER SITES FOR NOW. EXPECT ANY FOG
TONIGHT TO BE CONFINED TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND LEAVE THE TAF SITES
UNBLEMISHED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1135 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES
THROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL
APPROACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11:30 AM UPDATE...A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
AREAS ALONG A DEFORMATION FIELD SO EXTENDED ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATE TODAY AND SOME
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY THIS EVENING AS RIDGING PUSHES IN.
ORGNL DISC: RADAR REF IMAGERY AND HRRR MODEL HRLY SIM FCST RADAR
REF IMAGERY CONT TO SHOW THE TREND OF STEADY RNFL CONTNG TO SLIDE
AWAY ENE FROM THE FA INTO NE BRUNSWICK PROV THRU THE MORN HRS.
WHAT THIS LEAVES IS SCT SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LEFT OVR LOW TO
MID LVL INSTABILITY DUE TO THE CLOSE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVG SE INTO THE GULF OF ME THIS MORN. THESE SHWRS...AND
EVENTUALLY THE BKN-OVC SC DECK WILL BEGIN TO DISSOLVE WNW TO ESE
ACROSS THE FA BY THIS AFTN...ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE AFTN. DUE TO THE ONSET DIRECTION OF
GREATER SUNSHINE... HIGHEST TEMPS THIS AFT WILL BE OVR THE FAR NW
AND WRN DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY FROM
THE NNW...SPCLY DURG THE AFTN WHEN MIXING WILL BE GREATEST...WITH
MAX GUST POTENTIAL OF 30 MPH BASED ON AT LEAST 5 KFT OF MIXING
FROM ALF.
SKIES WILL FINISH CLRG OVR THE FA THIS EVE...BUT A NNW SFC PRES
GRADIENT WILL KEEP A BREEZE GOING OVRNGT...SPCLY OVR ERN PTNS OF
THE FA. FOR THIS REASON...ONLY WRN VLYS WILL HAVE A CHC TO
EXPERIENCE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER ON MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOME LATE DAY CIRRUS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20
MPH. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY COULD MAKE FIRE
WEATHER A CONSIDERATION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S NORTH AND
MID TO UPPER 70S FOR DOWN EAST WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW ENSURING
WARM TEMPERATURES RIGHT TO COAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE
NIGHT AND CAP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AROUND BANGOR. THESE
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT TUESDAY MORNING AND ALLOW SUNSHINE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
TOWARDS THE COAST WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AS GUIDANCE IS HAVING
TROUBLE PHASING MOVEMENT OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OUT OF QUEBEC.
THIS TROUGH WILL BE KEY IN CREATING SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION. WILL
BROADEN THE WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL WEATHER FOLLOWING THE FRONT FOR
AN EXTENDED STRETCH. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MERITS CLOSE SCRUTINY FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS. THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ANY SURFACE HEATING WILL BE CRITICAL
ELEMENTS WHERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY MVFR CLGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORN WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY AFTN...WITH KFVE THAT LAST SITE TO EXPERIENCE
THIS TRANSITION BY MID AFTN. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN REMAIN VFR THRU
TNGT.
SHORT TERM: VFR UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A THREAT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL SITES. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST BLO SCA THRESHOLDS TDY
AND TNGT WITH NNW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. WE USED A BLEND
OF RAW MODEL AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR WINDS AND WW3 WV HTS...ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD FOR THE INNER HARBOR/BAY MZ052 DUE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE
COMPONENT AND SHORT FETCH WIND DIRECTION.
SHORT TERM: POSSIBLE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CALM CONDITIONS WITH THE THREAT OF FOG INCREASING BY
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN/MCB
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
825 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES
THROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL
APPROACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
8:30 AM UPDATE...ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO MENTION ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.
CLOUDS WILL MOVE AWAY LATE TODAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. TODAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WIND AS THE DAYS HEATING MIXING AIR DOWN FROM ALOFT.
ORGNL DISC: RADAR REF IMAGERY AND HRRR MODEL HRLY SIM FCST RADAR
REF IMAGERY CONT TO SHOW THE TREND OF STEADY RNFL CONTNG TO SLIDE
AWAY ENE FROM THE FA INTO NE BRUNSWICK PROV THRU THE MORN HRS.
WHAT THIS LEAVES IS SCT SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LEFT OVR LOW TO
MID LVL INSTABILITY DUE TO THE CLOSE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVG SE INTO THE GULF OF ME THIS MORN. THESE SHWRS...AND
EVENTUALLY THE BKN-OVC SC DECK WILL BEGIN TO DISSOLVE WNW TO ESE
ACROSS THE FA BY THIS AFTN...ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE AFTN. DUE TO THE ONSET DIRECTION OF
GREATER SUNSHINE... HIGHEST TEMPS THIS AFT WILL BE OVR THE FAR NW
AND WRN DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY FROM
THE NNW...SPCLY DURG THE AFTN WHEN MIXING WILL BE GREATEST...WITH
MAX GUST POTENTIAL OF 30 MPH BASED ON AT LEAST 5 KFT OF MIXING
FROM ALF.
SKIES WILL FINISH CLRG OVR THE FA THIS EVE...BUT A NNW SFC PRES
GRADIENT WILL KEEP A BREEZE GOING OVRNGT...SPCLY OVR ERN PTNS OF
THE FA. FOR THIS REASON...ONLY WRN VLYS WILL HAVE A CHC TO
EXPERIENCE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER ON MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOME LATE DAY CIRRUS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20
MPH. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY COULD MAKE FIRE
WEATHER A CONSIDERATION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S NORTH AND
MID TO UPPER 70S FOR DOWN EAST WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW ENSURING
WARM TEMPERATURES RIGHT TO COAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE
NIGHT AND CAP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AROUND BANGOR. THESE
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT TUESDAY MORNING AND ALLOW SUNSHINE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
TOWARDS THE COAST WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AS GUIDANCE IS HAVING
TROUBLE PHASING MOVEMENT OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OUT OF QUEBEC.
THIS TROUGH WILL BE KEY IN CREATING SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION. WILL
BROADEN THE WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL WEATHER FOLLOWING THE FRONT FOR
AN EXTENDED STRETCH. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MERITS CLOSE SCRUTINY FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS. THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ANY SURFACE HEATING WILL BE CRITICAL
ELEMENTS WHERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY MVFR CLGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORN WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY AFTN...WITH KFVE THAT LAST SITE TO EXPERIENCE
THIS TRANSITION BY MID AFTN. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN REMAIN VFR THRU
TNGT.
SHORT TERM: VFR UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A THREAT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL SITES. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST BLO SCA THRESHOLDS TDY
AND TNGT WITH NNW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. WE USED A BLEND
OF RAW MODEL AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR WINDS AND WW3 WV HTS...ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD FOR THE INNER HARBOR/BAY MZ052 DUE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE
COMPONENT AND SHORT FETCH WIND DIRECTION.
SHORT TERM: POSSIBLE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CALM CONDITIONS WITH THE THREAT OF FOG INCREASING BY
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN/MCB
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
550 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES
THROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL
APPROACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
540 AM UPDATE: SAT AND RADAR IMAGERY AS WELL AS LATEST SFC OBS
INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT HRLY FCST LEADING INTO THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORN LOOKS REASONABLE...WITH NO CHGS NECESSARY ATTM.
ORGNL DISC: RADAR REF IMAGERY AND HRRR MODEL HRLY SIM FCST RADAR
REF IMAGERY CONT TO SHOW THE TREND OF STEADY RNFL CONTNG TO SLIDE
AWAY ENE FROM THE FA INTO NE BRUNSWICK PROV THRU THE MORN HRS.
WHAT THIS LEAVES IS SCT SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LEFT OVR LOW TO
MID LVL INSTABILITY DUE TO THE CLOSE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVG SE INTO THE GULF OF ME THIS MORN. THESE SHWRS...AND
EVENTUALLY THE BKN-OVC SC DECK WILL BEGIN TO DISSOLVE WNW TO ESE
ACROSS THE FA BY THIS AFTN...ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE AFTN. DUE TO THE ONSET DIRECTION OF
GREATER SUNSHINE... HIGHEST TEMPS THIS AFT WILL BE OVR THE FAR NW
AND WRN DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY FROM
THE NNW...SPCLY DURG THE AFTN WHEN MIXING WILL BE GREATEST...WITH
MAX GUST POTENTIAL OF 30 MPH BASED ON AT LEAST 5 KFT OF MIXING
FROM ALF.
SKIES WILL FINISH CLRG OVR THE FA THIS EVE...BUT A NNW SFC PRES
GRADIENT WILL KEEP A BREEZE GOING OVRNGT...SPCLY OVR ERN PTNS OF
THE FA. FOR THIS REASON...ONLY WRN VLYS WILL HAVE A CHC TO
EXPERIENCE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER ON MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOME LATE DAY CIRRUS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20
MPH. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY COULD MAKE FIRE
WEATHER A CONSIDERATION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S NORTH AND
MID TO UPPER 70S FOR DOWN EAST WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW ENSURING
WARM TEMPERATURES RIGHT TO COAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE
NIGHT AND CAP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AROUND BANGOR. THESE
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT TUESDAY MORNING AND ALLOW SUNSHINE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
TOWARDS THE COAST WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AS GUIDANCE IS HAVING
TROUBLE PHASING MOVEMENT OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OUT OF QUEBEC.
THIS TROUGH WILL BE KEY IN CREATING SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION. WILL
BROADEN THE WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL WEATHER FOLLOWING THE FRONT FOR
AN EXTENDED STRETCH. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MERITS CLOSE SCRUTINY FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS. THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ANY SURFACE HEATING WILL BE CRITICAL
ELEMENTS WHERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY MVFR CLGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORN WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY AFTN...WITH KFVE THAT LAST SITE TO EXPERIENCE
THIS TRANSITION BY MID AFTN. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN REMAIN VFR THRU
TNGT.
SHORT TERM: VFR UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A THREAT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL SITES. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST BLO SCA THRESHOLDS TDY
AND TNGT WITH NNW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. WE USED A BLEND
OF RAW MODEL AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR WINDS AND WW3 WV HTS...ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD FOR THE INNER HARBOR/BAY MZ052 DUE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE
COMPONENT AND SHORT FETCH WIND DIRECTION.
SHORT TERM: POSSIBLE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CALM CONDITIONS WITH THE THREAT OF FOG INCREASING BY
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
344 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES
THROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL
APPROACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR REF IMAGERY AND HRRR MODEL HRLY SIM FCST RADAR REF IMAGERY
CONT TO SHOW THE TREND OF STEADY RNFL CONTNG TO SLIDE AWAY ENE
FROM THE FA INTO NE BRUNSWICK PROV THRU THE MORN HRS. WHAT THIS
LEAVES IS SCT SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LEFT OVR LOW TO MID LVL
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE CLOSE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVG SE
INTO THE GULF OF ME THIS MORN. THESE SHWRS...AND EVENTUALLY THE
BKN-OVC SC DECK WILL BEGIN TO DISSOLVE WNW TO ESE ACROSS THE FA
BY THIS AFTN...ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE BY MID
TO LATE AFTN. DUE TO THE ONSET DIRECTION OF GREATER SUNSHINE...
HIGHEST TEMPS THIS AFT WILL BE OVR THE FAR NW AND WRN DOWNEAST
PTNS OF THE FA. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NNW...SPCLY
DURG THE AFTN WHEN MIXING WILL BE GREATEST...WITH MAX GUST
POTENTIAL OF 30 MPH BASED ON AT LEAST 5 KFT OF MIXING FROM ALF.
SKIES WILL FINISH CLRG OVR THE FA THIS EVE...BUT A NNW SFC PRES
GRADIENT WILL KEEP A BREEZE GOING OVRNGT...SPCLY OVR ERN PTNS OF
THE FA. FOR THIS REASON...ONLY WRN VLYS WILL HAVE A CHC TO
EXPERIENCE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER ON MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOME LATE DAY CIRRUS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20
MPH. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY COULD MAKE FIRE
WEATHER A CONSIDERATION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S NORTH AND
MID TO UPPER 70S FOR DOWN EAST WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW ENSURING
WARM TEMPERATURES RIGHT TO COAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE
NIGHT AND CAP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AROUND BANGOR. THESE
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT TUESDAY MORNING AND ALLOW SUNSHINE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
TOWARDS THE COAST WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AS GUIDANCE IS HAVING
TROUBLE PHASING MOVEMENT OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OUT OF QUEBEC.
THIS TROUGH WILL BE KEY IN CREATING SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION. WILL
BROADEN THE WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL WEATHER FOLLOWING THE FRONT FOR
AN EXTENDED STRETCH. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MERITS CLOSE SCRUTINY FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS. THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ANY SURFACE HEATING WILL BE CRITICAL
ELEMENTS WHERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY MVFR CLGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORN WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY AFTN...WITH KFVE THAT LAST SITE TO EXPERIENCE
THIS TRANSITION BY MID AFTN. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN REMAIN VFR THRU
TNGT.
SHORT TERM: VFR UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A THREAT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL SITES. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST BLO SCA THRESHOLDS TDY
AND TNGT WITH NNW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. WE USED A BLEND
OF RAW MODEL AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR WINDS AND WW3 WV HTS...ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD FOR THE INNER HARBOR/BAY MZ052 DUE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE
COMPONENT AND SHORT FETCH WIND DIRECTION.
SHORT TERM: POSSIBLE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CALM CONDITIONS WITH THE THREAT OF FOG INCREASING BY
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
827 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NE THROUGH NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH TRIGGERED CONVECTION ACROSS
ERN NE EARLIER THIS MORNING AND NOW HAS CONVECTION FOCUSED AT
PRESENT OVER ERN SD AND SW MN AT NOSE OF ASSOC 40-45 KT LOW-LVL
JET...BEST MLCAPE GRADIENT OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8.5C/KM. HIGHER LAPSE RATES TO 7C/KM FARTHER NORTH ALSO
SUPPORTING CLUSTER OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER NRN MN INTO FAR NRN WI.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY SNEAK INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHRA...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT
THIS CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DIE OFF AS IT MOVES AWAY
FROM THE BETTER INSTABILITY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
FCST FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH CONVECTION WHICH HAS FORMED OVER SRN MN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WHERE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED INTO TUESDAY. AS FAR AS
CONVECTION TONIGHT...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 12Z
REGIONAL GEM AND GFS AND AWAY FROM THE 12Z NAM WHICH BRINGS
STRONGEST CONVECTION TOO FAR NORTH INTO UPPER MI GIVEN MORE
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT. FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE 12Z
REGIONAL GEM AND GFS...WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH IDEA OF PREV FCST
WITH MINOR TWEAKS KEEPING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS GENERALLY OVER
THE SCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHERE
THIS PORTION OF CWA WILL BE ON NRN FRINGE OF MCS ACTIVITY MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WITH HIGHEST MLCAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG AND
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES 8-9C/KM FCST TO STAY WELL SOUTH CLOSER TO
WARM FRONT WOULD EXPECT ANY SVR STORMS TO STAY SOUTH OF UPPER MI
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF WARM FRONT AS DEPICTED ON
THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK WHERE THE SLIGHT RISK LINE MAKES IT JUST
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF GRB AND WAUSAW. BEST CHC OF TSRA TONIGHT WILL BE
OVER SCNTRL UPPER MI CLOSER TO BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WAKE LOW
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AS NRN FRINGE OF MCS MOVES ACROSS SCNTRL
AND SE FCST AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS OVER THESE AREAS IN
THE WAKE OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.
MODELS SHOW CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING MCS EXITING THE ERN FCST AREA
BY LATE TUE MORNING. MAIN QUESTION FOR TUE WILL BE CHCS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE WI BDR. WILL TREND TOWARD DRIER FCST
FOR TUE PER REGIONAL GEM AND NAM WHICH KEEPS DEVELOPING AFTERNOON
CONVECTION GENERALLY SOUTH OF CWA. SINCE THE 12Z GFS IS THE ONLY
MODEL TO BRING THE WARM FRONT NORTH INTO UPPER MI WILL TEND TO SHY
AWAY FROM ITS FARTHER NORTH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH 8H TEMPS IN
THE 14-16C...EXPECT INLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S INTERIOR
WEST/SCNTRL TO UPPER 70S EAST...WITH COOLER 60S TEMPS ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES SHORELINES FROM DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN QUEBEC...WHILE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
STRETCH FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO LAKE WINNIPEG. AT THE
SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN NORTHERN QUEBEC AND
ALSO IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH STRETCHING BETWEEN
THE TWO LOWS AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. TO THE
NORTH OF THE TROUGH...A HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER WESTERN HUDSON
BAY WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTH TO FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
HUDSON BAY HIGH AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTROL MUCH OF THE FORECAST
FOR THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MCS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST TRENDS SEEM TO BE FOR A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH TRACK THAN SHOWN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THAT SEEMS
REASONABLE. THAT MORE SOUTHERN IDEA WILL LIKELY POSITION THE TROUGH
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW DRY
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HUDSON BAY HIGH TO MOVE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. INDICATIONS ARE FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH OR DEVELOPING WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM
SIOUX FALLS THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND KICK OF ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
THIS BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...FEEL THAT MUCH OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS (LOW END CHANCES) POSITIONED ALONG THE
WISCONSIN BORDER AND SLIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF. WITH
PROPAGATION VECTORS INDICATING MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTHEAST...WOULD
THINK THAT AT MOST WE WOULD ONLY SEE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED STRATIFORM PRECIP.
WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE BOUNDARY STAYING TO THE SOUTH...THE
SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE HUDSON BAY WILL PUSH OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA AND LEAD TO DRY AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL FOLLOW THE SAME IDEA AS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP THE BEST POPS (LOW CHANCES) RIGHT ALONG THE
WISCONSIN BORDER...ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE OVERDONE (ESPECIALLY SINCE
THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES).
OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OR JUST HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP HIGHS COOLEST NEAR THE SHORELINE...WITH
INLAND VALUES IN THE 70S. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE EAST...THIS DRIER
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THE DRY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST 30
DAYS (GENERALLY UNDER 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL).
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE ROCKIES TO START THE PERIOD WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND THEN SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST WHILE MERGING WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN QUEBEC THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST...AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE CHANCE
POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TRACK. MODEL MUCAPE AND SHOWALTER VALUES
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...SO WOULD EXPECT THUNDER
CHANCES TO BE LIMITED AND WILL MATCH WITH THE POPS FOR NOW. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THIS UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL DEPART
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY/MONDAY...SO WILL FOLLOW A
GENERAL CONSENSUS OF CHANCE/SLIGHT POPS SUNDAY DIMINISHING BY
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 826 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
UNDER A DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LATE TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE A COMPLEX OF
SHRA/TSTMS THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. UPPER MI IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE NRN END OF THE COMPLEX. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FALL
TO MVFR LATE TONIGHTE AT KIWD AS WINDS MAY SWING AROUND TO AN
UPSLOPE NW DIRECTION AROUND SUNRISE. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADIER
PCPN TO AFFECT KSAW INCLUDED MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP
BTWN 10-15Z. SINCE THE GREATER INSTABILITY AND TSRA CHANCES REMAIN
OVER WI...TSRA WERE NOT MENTIONED AT SAW. WITH DIURNAL MIXING LOOK
IMPROVEMENT AT ALL SITES BY LATE TUE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
WEAK PRES GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT THRU
TUE. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSTMS
PASSING THRU WI AND AT LEAST PARTS OF UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT/TUE
MORNING...THERE MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS FOR A TIME LATE
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. FROM LATE TUE THRU FRI...LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
BECOME SITUATED BTWN A HUDSON BAY HIGH AND A LOW PRES TROF SLOWLY
ADVANCING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS
LATER TUE THRU FRI. WHILE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER
20KT...THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
WRN PART OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MN N SHORE DUE TO
COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. OTHERWISE...WINDS OVERALL COULD BE
STRONGER DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRES AND LOW PRES.
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND LINGERING HIGHER DEWPOINTS
OVER THE AREA INTO WED...LOOK FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
407 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
A LINE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN ALONG A CONVERGENT STREAMLINE. THIS
CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH A ZONE OF ENHANCED
ABSOLUTE VORTICITY IN THE LATEST RUC OUTPUT. THE CONVERGENCE
STREAMER AND RIBBON OF FORCING IS TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
MIDLEVEL JET STRUCTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE SYNOPTIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE ENHANCED LINE OF CONVERGENCE OR MIDLEVEL
INFLECTION AXIS TO CAST OFF...SHEDDING DUE EASTWARD TONIGHT AS THE
LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO. THE TONIGHT PERIOD THEN
DISTILLS DOWN TO WHAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AXIS TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA. WHAT IS
COMPLICATING THIS SETUP IS THE VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE 6-12 KFT LAYER. COMBINE
THIS STABLE LAYER WITH A VERY DRY NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF 30 DEGREES...AND THE SUSPICION
IS MUCH OF THE LIFT WILL GO INTO SATURATING THE COLUMN. THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE SHOWING A REAL STRUGGLE WITH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. PROBABLY THE BEST THING GOING FOR THE SETUP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RIBBON OF MOISTURE
TO ALIGN WITH THE MEAN FLOW LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS BY NO MEANS AN
ENDORSEMENT...MORE OF A COMMENT ON THE LOW CONFIDENCE/HIGH
UNCERTAINTY. FOR THOSE REASONS...WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM THE
INHERITED POP GRIDS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DECIDE ON THIS BEING A
SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS SHOWER TYPE EVENT. TIME OF YEAR AND CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY REQUIRES A THUNDER MENTION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO SIGNAL
FOR A HIGH AMOUNT OF EXPECTED LIGHTNING. HRRR ALONG WITH 12Z WRF-NMM
MOVED TIMING UP A HAIR...LOOKING AT TIME WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION
MAINLY BETWEEN 3-9Z.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
DEFINED MOISTURE PLUME ATTENDANT TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
EASE SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY MORNING AS SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS STREAM
BY TO THE NORTH. OVERALL TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THESE FEATURES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE WILL REMAIN A WINDOW EARLY IN THE DAY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST OF A
HOWELL TO SANDUSKY LINE. MORE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN
BY AFTERNOON WITHIN A BACKGROUND OF WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL
GREATLY LIMIT THE PROSPECTS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. A WELL MIXED AND DRYING 800-925 MB LAYER
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RESPOND
ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS OF LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AREAWIDE.
RENEWED STRENGTHENING OF THE DOWNSTREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SEND
THE EXISTING HIGHER THETA-E AIR MASS BACK NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
SE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL
SLOPE WILL SUPPORT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION. THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. IN ADDITION...POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL MAINTENANCE AND
DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WILL REQUIRE ATTENTION...12Z MODEL SUITE PROVIDING A MIXED
SIGNAL ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO ENTER A PORTION OF THE
AREA.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF ANY MCS/MCV REMNANTS PLAY A DEFINITIVE
ROLE IN DEFINING THE PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION ON INTO TUESDAY. A
MORE SIZABLE CLOUD/RAIN LADEN COMPLEX ARRIVING EARLY IN THE DAY
COULD DAMPEN/DELAY THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. CONVERSELY...A
LATE DAY ARRIVAL COULD BE OPPORTUNE FOR ANCHORING A MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE EPISODE. THE COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOME
INCREASE IN THE UPPER HEIGHT FIELD WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS OF UPPER
80S...ABSENT OF A DISRUPTION OF THE HEATING CYCLE BY EARLY DAY
ACTIVITY.
EXTENDED FORECAST WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
MONDAY/TUESDAY CONVECTION. MODELS STILL ADVERTISING A BOUNDARY
SETTING UP OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS. WITH THAT...THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUAL
CHANCE FOR RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
&&
.MARINE...
A GUSTY SOUTHEAST WIND THROUGH THE EVENING PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH. GUSTS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS GIVEN THE
HIGHER DEGREE OF STABILITY OVER THE LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL
BRING WITH IT A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO MID WEEK.
THIS FRONT MAY TRIGGER SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MID WEEK PERIOD. SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 216 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
//DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND A DRY AIRMASS IN THE NEAR SURFACE ATMOSPHERE. OVERALL
WINDSPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS.
THE QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS CENTERED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BUT
MORE SPECIFICALLY PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. THE EVENT AS A WHOLE WILL BE
LIMITED BY THE LACK OF DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. BEST DYNAMICS
WILL RIDGE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA TIED TO BETTER CONVERGENCE
SUPPORT ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET FEATURE. PRECIPITATION
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIVEN
PURELY FROM A MOISTURE TRANSPORT...DEPTH OF SATURATION STANDPOINT.
THE RIBBON OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTIVE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
NOT BE ROBUST...TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA IN ROUGHLY A 3 HOUR WINDOW
BETWEEN 7-10Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE CIG FORECAST FOR TOMORROW
MORNING.
FOR DTW...BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL
BE BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET AFTER 08Z
MONDAY.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 08Z MONDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR/SS
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
358 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER FAR SRN SASKATCHEWAN. SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE LOW IS
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS THRU THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF
FEATURE...SHRA AND TSTMS ARE LINED UP FROM NRN OK TO SRN MN THEN ENE
INTO WI AND UPPER MI THOUGH THUNDER HAS YET TO REACH UPPER MI. IN
RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE PLAINS...LOW-LEVEL JET HAS
INCREASED TO 45KT TO AS HIGH AS 65KT PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. NOSE
OF LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THE SHRA/TSTMS SPREADING
ACROSS WI INTO UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.
RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A SHORTWAVE LIFTING N THRU ERN
MN. AS THIS SUBTLE FEATURE LIFTS N AND WEAKENS AND NRN END OF
LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS AS WELL...SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS SPREADING N INTO
UPPER MI WILL LIKELY WEAKEN OR AT LEAST SHIFT MORE TOWARD WRN UPPER
MI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE LINGERING AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE
FOCUSED. AS MAIN NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE SWINGS NE THIS AFTN...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND SOME TSRA TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG/AHEAD OF OCCLUDED FRONT THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS UPPER MI
THIS AFTN/EVENING. THERE APPEARS TO BE VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SFC BASED CONVECTION TODAY GIVEN STABLE SFC BASED LAYER EVIDENT ON
FCST SOUNDINGS AND LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER LIMITING
DAYTIME HEATING. ABOVE THE STABLE LAYER...MUCAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG IS INDICATED BY THE GFS WITH THE NAM A BIT HIGHER UP TO
500-750J/KG BRUSHING THE FAR S/SE FCST AREA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPEARS
TO BE OVER 30KT...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING
ANY SVR STORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...SINCE STRONG WIND FIELDS ARE PRESENT
TODAY...ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS PRODUCING MDT/HVY RAINFALL COULD VERY WELL
TRANSPORT STRONGER WINDS TO THE SFC. EVEN WITHOUT PCPN...LIMITED
MIXING ON FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAX WIND GUSTS COULD EASILY TOP OUT
AROUND 40MPH TODAY. THE GUSTY WINDS IN THIS MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE AIDED BY RIBBON OF HEALTHY SFC PRES FALLS OF 5-7MB/3HR
LIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. IF MIXING IS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN EXPECTED...WIND ADVY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE REACHED TODAY.
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTN.
WITH PASSAGE OF OCCLUDED FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF IMPRESSIVE DRYING AS
UPPER JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT A QUICK END TO SHRA/TSRA
FROM SW TO NE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
WITH MESSY SMALL SCALE DETAILS IN THE LONG TERM...THE BROAD PATTERN
WILL BE DISCUSSED FIRST. STARTING AT 00Z TUE...THERE WILL BE A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER FAR NRN
ONTARIO AND A SFC RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. BY TUESDAY
EVENING...THE UPPER LOW TO OUR N WILL HAVE MOVED E WHILE THE TROUGH
OVER THE WRN CONUS HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY E. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION...AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN WHILE REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST THU. THE STRONG RIDGE WILL KEEP
THE UPPER TROUGH FROM PROGRESSING E OF THE PLAINS MEANING THAT SFC
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE PLAINS. ANOTHER IMPACT OF THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SFC RIDGING OUT OF CANADA NOSING
TO THE E OF THE CWA INCREASINGLY THROUGH THE WEEK. DUE TO THE
DEPARTING LOW ON MON NIGHT/TUE AND INTRUDING SFC HIGH...A COLD FRONT
WILL TRANSIT THE CWA FROM N TO S ON TUE AND SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY S/SW OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WORK WEEK.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE SPECIFICS ON THE FORECAST IS THAT A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE ALONG OR JUST S OF THE FRONT
ON MON NIGHT/TUE...AND MAY IMPACT PARTS OR ALL OF THE CWA. EXACT
LOCATION/COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS...AS
ALWAYS...UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. WHILE NOT MUCH CAN
BE SAID AT THIS POINT...DO FAVOR BETTER POPS ALONG THE SRN END OF
THE CWA GIVEN PATTERN RECOGNITION AND THAT MODELS DEPICT THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT BEING OVER THE SRN CWA.
AFTER TUE...WITH THE FRONT STALLED S/SW OF THE CWA AND THE RIDGE
AXIS JUST TO THE W OF THE CWA...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LIKELY TOPPING
THE RIDGE AND RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WI BORDER AND OVER THE WRN CWA
INTO OR THROUGH FRI...WHICH IS WHEN MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW TO PROGRESS WITH THE PATTERN. WITH THE
INTRUDING SFC RIDGE TO THE E...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR THE ERN CWA. IN FACT...ON THU AND FRI MODELS SHOW 1000-700MB RH
VALUES BELOW NEAR OR BELOW 30 PERCENT OVER AT LEAST FAR ERN UPPER MI
WITH LIGHT ELY SFC FLOW. FOR WED INTO FRI...THE FORECAST WILL SHOW A
POP GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE WI BORDER AND W AND THE
LOWEST POPS OVER THE N/NE CWA.
MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AND WILL JUST USE
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
CONTROL MUCH OF THE TAF FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS.
THIS LOW WILL DRAG A OCCLUDED FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...LIKELY BRINGING TWO PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TAF SITES. THE FIRST
BAND IS LOCATED BETWEEN KIWD AND KCMX AND WILL AFFECT KCMX AROUND
19Z AND KSAW AT 20-21Z. THE NEXT BAND...CURRENTLY STRETCHING SOUTH
FROM TWO HARBORS MINNESOTA TO LACROSSE WISCONSIN WILL ARRIVE AN HOUR
OR TWO LATER (AN KIWD AROUND 19Z). INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...SO HAVE
LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS
THEY DEVELOP FURTHER. AHEAD OF THESE SHOWERS...STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND THEN DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME PERIODS OF BORDERLINE
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH THESE SHOWERS (AND HAS ALREADY REACHED
KIWD) UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
AFTER THE FRONT...DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN AND SHOULD SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING. DID CONTINUE A MENTION OF SCATTERED
CLOUDS AT KIWD/KCMX TONIGHT AS A SMALL POCKET OF MOISTURE ROTATES
AROUND THE LOW...BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR. DID CONTINUE
SOME BR AND LOWER VISIBILITY MENTION AT KSAW WHERE THERE MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE RAIN AND SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
LOW PRES WILL LIFT THRU MN INTO NRN ONTARIO TODAY. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO E TO SE WINDS OF 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL RESULT IN
A STABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMP ENVIROMENT...HEALTHY PRES FALLS AND STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OCNL GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTN...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGH OBS PLATFORMS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE
COULD BE 2-3HRS OF FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS WHEN RIBBON OF MAX PRES
FALLS LIFTS ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTN. AS OCCLUDED FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE LAKE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S OR SW TONIGHT AND
DIMINISH. WITH RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER THE LAKE...EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THE FOG WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT ARE EXPECTED MON/MON NIGHT.
THEN...LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BECOME SITUATED BTWN A HUDSON BAY HIGH AND
A LOW PRES TROF SLOWLY ADVANCING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN EASTERLY WINDS LATER TUE THRU THU. WHILE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE UNDER 20KT...THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER WINDS
OVER THE WRN PART OF THE LAKE...PARTICULARY TOWARD THE MN N SHORE
DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. OTHERWISE...WINDS OVERALL
COULD BE STRONGER DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AND LOW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
149 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER FAR SRN SASKATCHEWAN. SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE LOW IS
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS THRU THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF
FEATURE...SHRA AND TSTMS ARE LINED UP FROM NRN OK TO SRN MN THEN ENE
INTO WI AND UPPER MI THOUGH THUNDER HAS YET TO REACH UPPER MI. IN
RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE PLAINS...LOW-LEVEL JET HAS
INCREASED TO 45KT TO AS HIGH AS 65KT PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. NOSE
OF LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THE SHRA/TSTMS SPREADING
ACROSS WI INTO UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.
RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A SHORTWAVE LIFTING N THRU ERN
MN. AS THIS SUBTLE FEATURE LIFTS N AND WEAKENS AND NRN END OF
LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS AS WELL...SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS SPREADING N INTO
UPPER MI WILL LIKELY WEAKEN OR AT LEAST SHIFT MORE TOWARD WRN UPPER
MI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE LINGERING AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE
FOCUSED. AS MAIN NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE SWINGS NE THIS AFTN...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND SOME TSRA TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG/AHEAD OF OCCLUDED FRONT THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS UPPER MI
THIS AFTN/EVENING. THERE APPEARS TO BE VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SFC BASED CONVECTION TODAY GIVEN STABLE SFC BASED LAYER EVIDENT ON
FCST SOUNDINGS AND LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER LIMITING
DAYTIME HEATING. ABOVE THE STABLE LAYER...MUCAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG IS INDICATED BY THE GFS WITH THE NAM A BIT HIGHER UP TO
500-750J/KG BRUSHING THE FAR S/SE FCST AREA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPEARS
TO BE OVER 30KT...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING
ANY SVR STORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...SINCE STRONG WIND FIELDS ARE PRESENT
TODAY...ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS PRODUCING MDT/HVY RAINFALL COULD VERY WELL
TRANSPORT STRONGER WINDS TO THE SFC. EVEN WITHOUT PCPN...LIMITED
MIXING ON FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAX WIND GUSTS COULD EASILY TOP OUT
AROUND 40MPH TODAY. THE GUSTY WINDS IN THIS MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE AIDED BY RIBBON OF HEALTHY SFC PRES FALLS OF 5-7MB/3HR
LIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. IF MIXING IS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN EXPECTED...WIND ADVY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE REACHED TODAY.
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTN.
WITH PASSAGE OF OCCLUDED FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF IMPRESSIVE DRYING AS
UPPER JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT A QUICK END TO SHRA/TSRA
FROM SW TO NE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THANKS TO ANOTHER LOW ORGANIZING ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MN WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
CENTRAL MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER AT 12Z MONDAY. EXPECT THE LOW TO
TRACK EAST ACROSS ONTARIO...CROSSING JAMES BAY MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
BRIEFLY SLIDE IN DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH NO PRECIP ANTICIPATED
ACROSS UPPER MI. A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL BUILD
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE
DRY WEATHER WILL NOT CONTINUE. LOW PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL SHIFT INTO MN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FCST MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL WE MOVE INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW AFTER
THAT GETS A BIT MORE JUMBLED. THE 15/00Z GFS IS MUCH DEEPER WITH THE
SYSTEM...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEEKER AND A BIT MOR PROGRESSIVE.
THE CANADIAN TENDS TO FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH
THURSDAY.
AS FOR SPECIFICS...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND GOOD MIXING ABOVE 800MB...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 80S OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI
/OR APPROX 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL/. CONTINUED TO GO TOWARD THE HIGH END
OF FCST GUIDANCE TEMP WISE. WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE A 90F
VALUE. RH VALUES COULD FALL INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE /DID GO ON
THE LOW SIDE FOR DEW POINTS AND RH/...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE
20-25MPH RANGE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE RAIN TODAY SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO SLIDE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE SW IN OUR WAA PATTERN. EXACT
TIMING/LOCATION IS DIFFICULT. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS OR HIGHER NEAR
THE WI BORDER...WHICH LOOKS TO FOLLOW THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
WELL. OTHERWISE EXPECT SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
CONTROL MUCH OF THE TAF FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS.
THIS LOW WILL DRAG A OCCLUDED FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...LIKELY BRINGING TWO PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TAF SITES. THE FIRST
BAND IS LOCATED BETWEEN KIWD AND KCMX AND WILL AFFECT KCMX AROUND
19Z AND KSAW AT 20-21Z. THE NEXT BAND...CURRENTLY STRETCHING SOUTH
FROM TWO HARBORS MINNESOTA TO LACROSSE WISCONSIN WILL ARRIVE AN HOUR
OR TWO LATER (AN KIWD AROUND 19Z). INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...SO HAVE
LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS
THEY DEVELOP FURTHER. AHEAD OF THESE SHOWERS...STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND THEN DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME PERIODS OF BORDERLINE
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH THESE SHOWERS (AND HAS ALREADY REACHED
KIWD) UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
AFTER THE FRONT...DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN AND SHOULD SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING. DID CONTINUE A MENTION OF SCATTERED
CLOUDS AT KIWD/KCMX TONIGHT AS A SMALL POCKET OF MOISTURE ROTATES
AROUND THE LOW...BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR. DID CONTINUE
SOME BR AND LOWER VISIBILITY MENTION AT KSAW WHERE THERE MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE RAIN AND SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
LOW PRES WILL LIFT THRU MN INTO NRN ONTARIO TODAY. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO E TO SE WINDS OF 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL RESULT IN
A STABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMP ENVIROMENT...HEALTHY PRES FALLS AND STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OCNL GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTN...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGH OBS PLATFORMS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE
COULD BE 2-3HRS OF FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS WHEN RIBBON OF MAX PRES
FALLS LIFTS ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTN. AS OCCLUDED FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE LAKE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S OR SW TONIGHT AND
DIMINISH. WITH RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER THE LAKE...EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THE FOG WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT ARE EXPECTED MON/MON NIGHT.
THEN...LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BECOME SITUATED BTWN A HUDSON BAY HIGH AND
A LOW PRES TROF SLOWLY ADVANCING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN EASTERLY WINDS LATER TUE THRU THU. WHILE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE UNDER 20KT...THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER WINDS
OVER THE WRN PART OF THE LAKE...PARTICULARY TOWARD THE MN N SHORE
DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. OTHERWISE...WINDS OVERALL
COULD BE STRONGER DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AND LOW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER FAR SRN SASKATCHEWAN. SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE LOW IS
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS THRU THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF
FEATURE...SHRA AND TSTMS ARE LINED UP FROM NRN OK TO SRN MN THEN ENE
INTO WI AND UPPER MI THOUGH THUNDER HAS YET TO REACH UPPER MI. IN
RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE PLAINS...LOW-LEVEL JET HAS
INCREASED TO 45KT TO AS HIGH AS 65KT PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. NOSE
OF LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THE SHRA/TSTMS SPREADING
ACROSS WI INTO UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.
RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A SHORTWAVE LIFTING N THRU ERN
MN. AS THIS SUBTLE FEATURE LIFTS N AND WEAKENS AND NRN END OF
LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS AS WELL...SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS SPREADING N INTO
UPPER MI WILL LIKELY WEAKEN OR AT LEAST SHIFT MORE TOWARD WRN UPPER
MI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE LINGERING AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE
FOCUSED. AS MAIN NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE SWINGS NE THIS AFTN...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND SOME TSRA TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG/AHEAD OF OCCLUDED FRONT THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS UPPER MI
THIS AFTN/EVENING. THERE APPEARS TO BE VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SFC BASED CONVECTION TODAY GIVEN STABLE SFC BASED LAYER EVIDENT ON
FCST SOUNDINGS AND LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER LIMITING
DAYTIME HEATING. ABOVE THE STABLE LAYER...MUCAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG IS INDICATED BY THE GFS WITH THE NAM A BIT HIGHER UP TO
500-750J/KG BRUSHING THE FAR S/SE FCST AREA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPEARS
TO BE OVER 30KT...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING
ANY SVR STORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...SINCE STRONG WIND FIELDS ARE PRESENT
TODAY...ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS PRODUCING MDT/HVY RAINFALL COULD VERY WELL
TRANSPORT STRONGER WINDS TO THE SFC. EVEN WITHOUT PCPN...LIMITED
MIXING ON FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAX WIND GUSTS COULD EASILY TOP OUT
AROUND 40MPH TODAY. THE GUSTY WINDS IN THIS MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE AIDED BY RIBBON OF HEALTHY SFC PRES FALLS OF 5-7MB/3HR
LIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. IF MIXING IS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN EXPECTED...WIND ADVY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE REACHED TODAY.
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTN.
WITH PASSAGE OF OCCLUDED FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF IMPRESSIVE DRYING AS
UPPER JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT A QUICK END TO SHRA/TSRA
FROM SW TO NE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THANKS TO ANOTHER LOW ORGANIZING ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MN WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
CENTRAL MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER AT 12Z MONDAY. EXPECT THE LOW TO
TRACK EAST ACROSS ONTARIO...CROSSING JAMES BAY MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
BRIEFLY SLIDE IN DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH NO PRECIP ANTICIPATED
ACROSS UPPER MI. A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL BUILD
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE
DRY WEATHER WILL NOT CONTINUE. LOW PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL SHIFT INTO MN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FCST MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL WE MOVE INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW AFTER
THAT GETS A BIT MORE JUMBLED. THE 15/00Z GFS IS MUCH DEEPER WITH THE
SYSTEM...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEEKER AND A BIT MOR PROGRESSIVE.
THE CANADIAN TENDS TO FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH
THURSDAY.
AS FOR SPECIFICS...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND GOOD MIXING ABOVE 800MB...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 80S OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI
/OR APPROX 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL/. CONTINUED TO GO TOWARD THE HIGH END
OF FCST GUIDANCE TEMP WISE. WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE A 90F
VALUE. RH VALUES COULD FALL INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE /DID GO ON
THE LOW SIDE FOR DEW POINTS AND RH/...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE
20-25MPH RANGE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE RAIN TODAY SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO SLIDE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE SW IN OUR WAA PATTERN. EXACT
TIMING/LOCATION IS DIFFICULT. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS OR HIGHER NEAR
THE WI BORDER...WHICH LOOKS TO FOLLOW THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
WELL. OTHERWISE EXPECT SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE MORNING HRS
AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY DESPITE SCT SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE -SHRA AFFECTING KIWD/KCMX MAY DIMINISH/EXIT
FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING...APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY SOME TSRA THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLD/SCT IN COVERAGE...SO
CONFIDENCE IN TSTMS AFFECTING ANY OF THE TERMINALS IS LOW. THUS...
TSRA WERE NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE SHRA. CLOUDS WILL THEN CLEAR OUT FROM W TO E
TONIGHT.
OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS WIND. ALTHOUGH MIXING DEPTHS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE VERY HIGH...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS/PRES FALLS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT GUSTS TO 30-35KT...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD/KSAW WHICH ARE
MORE FAVORED THAN KCMX FOR STRONGER WINDS UNDER THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
LOW PRES WILL LIFT THRU MN INTO NRN ONTARIO TODAY. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO E TO SE WINDS OF 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL RESULT IN
A STABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMP ENVIROMENT...HEALTHY PRES FALLS AND STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OCNL GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTN...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGH OBS PLATFORMS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE
COULD BE 2-3HRS OF FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS WHEN RIBBON OF MAX PRES
FALLS LIFTS ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTN. AS OCCLUDED FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE LAKE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S OR SW TONIGHT AND
DIMINISH. WITH RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER THE LAKE...EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THE FOG WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT ARE EXPECTED MON/MON NIGHT.
THEN...LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BECOME SITUATED BTWN A HUDSON BAY HIGH AND
A LOW PRES TROF SLOWLY ADVANCING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN EASTERLY WINDS LATER TUE THRU THU. WHILE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE UNDER 20KT...THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER WINDS
OVER THE WRN PART OF THE LAKE...PARTICULARY TOWARD THE MN N SHORE
DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. OTHERWISE...WINDS OVERALL
COULD BE STRONGER DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AND LOW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
551 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER FAR SRN SASKATCHEWAN. SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE LOW IS
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS THRU THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF
FEATURE...SHRA AND TSTMS ARE LINED UP FROM NRN OK TO SRN MN THEN ENE
INTO WI AND UPPER MI THOUGH THUNDER HAS YET TO REACH UPPER MI. IN
RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE PLAINS...LOW-LEVEL JET HAS
INCREASED TO 45KT TO AS HIGH AS 65KT PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. NOSE
OF LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THE SHRA/TSTMS SPREADING
ACROSS WI INTO UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.
RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A SHORTWAVE LIFTING N THRU ERN
MN. AS THIS SUBTLE FEATURE LIFTS N AND WEAKENS AND NRN END OF
LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS AS WELL...SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS SPREADING N INTO
UPPER MI WILL LIKELY WEAKEN OR AT LEAST SHIFT MORE TOWARD WRN UPPER
MI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE LINGERING AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE
FOCUSED. AS MAIN NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE SWINGS NE THIS AFTN...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND SOME TSRA TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG/AHEAD OF OCCLUDED FRONT THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS UPPER MI
THIS AFTN/EVENING. THERE APPEARS TO BE VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SFC BASED CONVECTION TODAY GIVEN STABLE SFC BASED LAYER EVIDENT ON
FCST SOUNDINGS AND LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER LIMITING
DAYTIME HEATING. ABOVE THE STABLE LAYER...MUCAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG IS INDICATED BY THE GFS WITH THE NAM A BIT HIGHER UP TO
500-750J/KG BRUSHING THE FAR S/SE FCST AREA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPEARS
TO BE OVER 30KT...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING
ANY SVR STORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...SINCE STRONG WIND FIELDS ARE PRESENT
TODAY...ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS PRODUCING MDT/HVY RAINFALL COULD VERY WELL
TRANSPORT STRONGER WINDS TO THE SFC. EVEN WITHOUT PCPN...LIMITED
MIXING ON FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAX WIND GUSTS COULD EASILY TOP OUT
AROUND 40MPH TODAY. THE GUSTY WINDS IN THIS MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE AIDED BY RIBBON OF HEALTHY SFC PRES FALLS OF 5-7MB/3HR
LIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. IF MIXING IS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN EXPECTED...WIND ADVY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE REACHED TODAY.
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTN.
WITH PASSAGE OF OCCLUDED FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF IMPRESSIVE DRYING AS
UPPER JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT A QUICK END TO SHRA/TSRA
FROM SW TO NE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THANKS TO ANOTHER LOW ORGANIZING ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MN WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
CENTRAL MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER AT 12Z MONDAY. EXPECT THE LOW TO
TRACK EAST ACROSS ONTARIO...CROSSING JAMES BAY MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
BRIEFLY SLIDE IN DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH NO PRECIP ANTICIPATED
ACROSS UPPER MI. A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL BUILD
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE
DRY WEATHER WILL NOT CONTINUE. LOW PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL SHIFT INTO MN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FCST MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL WE MOVE INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW AFTER
THAT GETS A BIT MORE JUMBLED. THE 15/00Z GFS IS MUCH DEEPER WITH THE
SYSTEM...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEEKER AND A BIT MOR PROGRESSIVE.
THE CANADIAN TENDS TO FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH
THURSDAY.
AS FOR SPECIFICS...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND GOOD MIXING ABOVE 800MB...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 80S OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI
/OR APPROX 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL/. CONTINUED TO GO TOWARD THE HIGH END
OF FCST GUIDANCE TEMP WISE. WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE A 90F
VALUE. RH VALUES COULD FALL INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE /DID GO ON
THE LOW SIDE FOR DEW POINTS AND RH/...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE
20-25MPH RANGE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE RAIN TODAY SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO SLIDE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE SW IN OUR WAA PATTERN. EXACT
TIMING/LOCATION IS DIFFICULT. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS OR HIGHER NEAR
THE WI BORDER...WHICH LOOKS TO FOLLOW THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
WELL. OTHERWISE EXPECT SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDS
OVER THE AREA EVEN AS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MOVE IN.
THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE OVERNIGHT INTO
TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY LIFTS FROM EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. WOULD EXPECT THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAIN AT KIWD/KCMX AS THE DRY AIR ATTEMPTS TO HOLD OFF RAIN AT KSAW.
EVEN WITH THE RAIN...EXPECT CEILINGS WILL NOT FALL BELOW VFR UNTIL
SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING OCCURS. AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AT EACH OF THE
TAF SITES. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR
NOW. ANY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AGAIN TO VFR WITH DRYING
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
FINALLY...LLWS WAS MENTIONED AT KIWD/KCMX DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE LOW. EVEN THOUGH THE SITES WILL BE GUSTY
(ESPECIALLY KIWD)...THOUGHT THE INCREASE IN WINDS AND VEERING
DIRECTION WARRANTED A MENTION INTO THE MORNING HRS. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TODAY...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO NEAR 30 KT ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT SAW AND IWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
LOW PRES WILL LIFT THRU MN INTO NRN ONTARIO TODAY. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO E TO SE WINDS OF 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL RESULT IN
A STABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMP ENVIROMENT...HEALTHY PRES FALLS AND STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OCNL GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTN...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGH OBS PLATFORMS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE
COULD BE 2-3HRS OF FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS WHEN RIBBON OF MAX PRES
FALLS LIFTS ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTN. AS OCCLUDED FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE LAKE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S OR SW TONIGHT AND
DIMINISH. WITH RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER THE LAKE...EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THE FOG WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT ARE EXPECTED MON/MON NIGHT.
THEN...LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BECOME SITUATED BTWN A HUDSON BAY HIGH AND
A LOW PRES TROF SLOWLY ADVANCING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN EASTERLY WINDS LATER TUE THRU THU. WHILE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE UNDER 20KT...THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER WINDS
OVER THE WRN PART OF THE LAKE...PARTICULARY TOWARD THE MN N SHORE
DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. OTHERWISE...WINDS OVERALL
COULD BE STRONGER DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AND LOW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
105 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH EXITS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
GUSTS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER 23 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...FILLING IN BETWEEN 05 AND 09Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET AFTER 09Z
MONDAY.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 09Z MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE FAVORABLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN AND THE STABLE LAKE AGGREGATE OF
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING. LATEST KDTX .5Z IMAGERY
SUPPORTS A LAKE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER SECTIONS OF
MACOMB AND WAYNE COUNTIES IMMEDIATE TO THE LAKE ST CLAIR SHORELINE.
IN ADDITION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLIER DEPICTED A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR EASTERN THUMB. SURFACE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO VEER LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
DRIFTS OVERHEAD A MOVE AWAY FROM THE WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW NOW IN
PLACE. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN FALL OFF FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL FOLLOW...SHIFTING EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH CLOUD TO EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. RECENT RUC DATA SUPPORTS SOME HIGH CLOUD DRIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN YET THIS EVENING. TRANSPARENCY FOR CLOUDS
THIS FAR SOUTH WILL BE HIGH WHICH WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON LOWS
OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS MODERATION SHOULD LEAD TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREE WARMER. CURRENT DEWPOINTS RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID
40S SETS A GOOD BASELINE FOR AREAS NORTH OF M 59. IN THE URBAN
AREAS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD LOWER INTO THE LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING OUT OF
THE PLAINS. THE EFFECTIVE DEEPENING OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ESTABLISH A SOLID WARM AIR ADVECTIVE COMPONENT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE 850-925 MB LAYER WILL WARM ROUGHLY 5-6 DEGREES RELATIVE TO
TODAY...LEAVING 850 MB READINGS IN THE 15C RANGE. GIVEN AT LEAST A
MODESTLY MIXED PROFILE WITH FULL INSOLATION INTO THIS LAYER...THIS
SUPPORTS AN INCREMENTAL INCREASE IN HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S.
SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE NEAR SURFACE WIND FIELD WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A TOUCH COOLER ALONG THE LAKESHORE LOCALES
/MID-UPPER 70S/.
MAIN HEIGHT FALL CENTER WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AT IT
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL FILL
EASTWARD...ALLOWING AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO EASE ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BOUNDARY APPEARS DEFINED MORE BY
THE TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT...A PERIOD OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
COMMENCING LOCALLY 06Z-12Z MONDAY MORNING. A STEADY INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY THROUGH THIS PROCESS WILL INTRODUCE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONTAL SLOPE WORKS THROUGH. A
GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT WOULD SEEMINGLY RELY ON A
GREATER UPTICK IN FORCING PROVIDED VIA THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE
OR REMNANT MCV WITH SOME ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT.
THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH/EAST BY
EARLY MONDAY AS THE AREA BRIEFLY ENTERS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THERMAL
PROFILE REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THAT NOTED ON SUNDAY...SLIGHT
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW YIELDING A GREATER MIXING
POTENTIAL. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGHS MAKING A RUN INTO THE MIDDLE
80S...PARTICULARLY IF THE ONGOING DRY AIR ADVECTION SCOURS OUT ANY
RESIDUAL CLOUD EARLY ENOUGH DURING THE DAY.
OVERALL SETUP FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND BRING
CONTINUAL CHANCES FOR BOTH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR THE WEEK. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR THE START OF
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL ASSIST IN BRINGING RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. WITH WAA OCCURRING ON
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND CANNOT RULE OUT
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. SECOND IN THE SERIES OF WAVES IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. FROM THERE THE LONG RANGE
PATTERN BECOMES MUDDLED...AS OF NOW THERE LOOKS TO BE A BOUNDARY
THAT MAY SETUP ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
BE ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO BRING TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA...FROM THERE TEMPS SLOWLY GO BACK INTO THE
UPPER 70S. THE SETUP AS A WHOLE LOOKS TO START TO BREAK DOWN AT THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND THROUGH TONIGHT WINDS WILL EMERGE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TURNING DRIER ON MONDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY BECOME MORE
ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....HLO
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR/SS
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
553 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2014
...Monitoring for Potential Thunderstorm Development Tonight...
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 545 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
The expectation for thunderstorm development tonight remains rather
murky.
At late afternoon an expansive area of stratus or strato-cumulus
had developed from southeastern Kansas into central Missouri with
light echoes showing up on radar. These clouds and light showers
were developing within a region of modest isentropic upglide and
9250-850 MB theta-e advection.
There appear to be a couple of negative factors to storm
development in the near term. Water vapor and RAP model analysis
suggest drying taking place within the 700-300 MB layer along with
mid level warming. Any substantial synoptic scale trigger appears
to be absent at this time. The 00z upper air sounding may provide
more clues.
Our attention will be focused on the evolution of the low level
jet later this evening into the overnight hours and the
positioning of a 925-850 MB boundary. The positioning and strength
of these features may be key players to convective development
tonight.
While the development of convection and subsequent severe risk
remain conditional there will be the potential for strong to
locally severe storms later tonight if development transpires.
Stay tuned to the latest weather information and possible forecast
updates.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 234 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
Remnants of a thunderstorm complex pushed through the forecast
area from west to east this morning. Some 30 to 45 mph winds
occurred just behind the back edge of precipitation for about 10
to 15 minutes this morning. Cloud cover associated with the
thunderstorm complex was beginning to erode over the area and
temperatures in all but far south central Missouri have rebounded
back into the mid 70s to low 80s.
Forecast focus will be with precipitation redevelopment chances
tonight and with temperatures over the next several days.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
Tricky forecast for tonight. Atmosphere still in recovery mode
from morning MCS remnants and computer models are all over the
place with any redevelopment and placement of precipitation
tonight. Most of the the computer models are showing at least some
redevelopment at some point during the evening or overnight
periods across the area, mainly as the low level jet redevelops
later tonight. Don`t have the confidence to go with likely pops at
this point, but have higher pops along northern sections of the
CWA with main surface boundary stretched out in that vicinity.
Some models are showing some backbuilding of storms late tonight
down further to the southwest and if this materializes, we could
see a flash flooding scenario develop overnight and into Monday
morning, but am not willing to completely buy into this scenario
just yet as some of these solutions did not initialize very well
with this mornings convection.
With any remaining Monday morning convection ending, should see a
dry period begin during the afternoon as the front refocuses as a
warm front well to our north and upper level storm track remains
off to the northwest. Expecting afternoon highs to reach the upper
80s to around 90 with heat index values in the low to mid 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
Similar conditions are expected on Tuesday, but slightly warmer
with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s expected. Upper ridge will
be in place from the Gulf coastal states into the mid Mississippi
valley region and the storm track remaining off to the northwest.
Will start to nudge the ridge to the east on Wednesday a bit as an
upper level wave begins to push out of the Rockies and into the
northern and central high Plains. Could start to see some widely
scattered/scattered convection refire during the afternoon
starting Wednesday. With several weak disturbances and more
flattened ridge by the latter half of the week, thunderstorm
chances will perist into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
Mainly VFR conditions can be expected for pilots flying in and
out of the Missouri Ozarks region this evening through tomorrow.
There is one concern to watch for and keep updated for any future
forecast changes in the TAFs. There is some indication for an area
of covection to develop late tonight after 06z through 12z in the
morning. There are some uncertainties on the scope and timing for
this potential development of convection.
For this TAF update have mainly covered this potential with TEMPO
groups for JLN and SGF followed by a PROB30 group. If the convection
does affect terminals...expect brief MVFR conditions. Light
southerly winds will continue tonight with an uptick in wind speeds
by late Monday morning after 15z with some gusts over 20 knots
possible.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Griffin
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
954 AM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING. LINGERING
SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WILL END BY MIDDAY. ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR MOUNTAINS LATE TODAY. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD
BE A BEAUTIFUL FATHERS DAY AT MOST LOCATIONS. BT
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS OUT OF NORTHEAST MONTANA
EARLY THIS MORNING. CYCLONIC NW FLOW AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR CENTRAL AND EAST PARTS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. AREA OF PV WILL FINALLY EXIT OUR EAST BY MIDDAY...SO
HAVE EXPANDED ISOLATED MORNING NUISANCE SHOWERS TO INCLUDE ROSEBUD
COUNTY EAST. ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF BY 18-19Z PER LATEST RAP AS
MID LEVELS BEGIN TO WARM AND WE ADVECT DRIER AIR FROM THE NW.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO APPROACHING PACIFIC ENERGY FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER OUR WESTERN MTNS AND FOOTHILLS
BEGINNING AROUND 20Z...WITH GREATEST FORCING TO ARRIVE AFTER 00Z.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS
ESPECIALLY TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST PARTS THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME ACTIVITY LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS WAVE LIFTS TO NORTHEAST MT.
THIS CONVECTION WILL NOT BE SEVERE...BUT WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ON
THE ORDER OF 5KFT COULD RESULT IN SOME SMALL HAIL...AND FAIRLY DRY
LOW LEVELS COULD YIELD 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STRONGER
CELLS AT SUCH PLACES AS LIVINGSTON AND HARLOWTON.
A DEEP-FOR-MID-JUNE UPPER LOW WILL DROP OVER WA/OR MONDAY...
RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT SW FLOW OVER OUR WEST. THUS
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT PER THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MID
LEVEL BAROCLINICITY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN
OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND SOME OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE CLOSER TO THE DAKOTAS BORDER AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS
INTO EASTERN MT AS THE UPPER LOW AMPLIFIES...WITH NOCTURNAL
ASCENT AIDED BY A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. COULD SEE SOME HAIL
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS AT BAKER RISE TO NEAR 0.90 INCHES.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW MID JUNE NORMALS. WITH GOOD MIXING AND
W-NW WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WE SHOULD SEE LOW TO MID 70S FOR
HIGHS. COOLING WILL BEGIN OUT WEST ON MONDAY...BUT EASTERN AREAS
WILL SEE UPPER 70S TOMORROW.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW. MAIN ISSUE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT
MODEL THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS AND WILL CONTINUE TRENDING THE
FORECAST TOWARD ITS SOLUTION.
UPPER TROUGH WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO
SC/SE MT ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM AS JET
DIVERGENCE AND STRONG QG FORCING WILL MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE WAVE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WILL
IMPACT THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH. COLD
POCKET OF AIR MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING SNOW TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECREASING ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH EXITS
INTO THE DAKOTA`S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS AN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BEHIND
THE WAVE. DRY WEATHER RETURNING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 50S AND 60S. UPPER RIDGE LATE IN THE
WEEK WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS FROM KMLS E WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS
MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM W TO
E INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY W OF ROSEBUD COUNTY. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AND END MON MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
THROUGH MON MORNING. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 051/073 051/064 046/064 049/075 052/082 054/086
1/U 23/T 56/T 65/T 32/T 21/U 11/U
LVM 070 043/067 041/057 038/058 044/074 046/079 048/081
3/T 36/T 66/T 65/T 42/T 21/U 22/T
HDN 074 049/076 052/067 048/067 049/075 052/085 054/089
1/U 23/T 56/T 65/T 33/T 21/B 11/U
MLS 071 051/078 055/068 052/068 050/071 053/082 056/086
1/B 02/T 57/T 76/T 33/T 22/T 11/U
4BQ 073 050/079 053/069 051/068 050/071 051/082 053/085
0/B 02/T 45/T 76/T 43/T 22/T 11/U
BHK 068 049/076 054/071 051/067 049/068 049/077 051/081
2/W 02/T 56/T 76/T 43/T 32/T 11/U
SHR 070 046/075 048/063 045/064 045/072 047/081 049/084
1/B 02/T 36/T 64/T 43/T 31/B 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
257 AM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS OUT OF NORTHEAST MONTANA
EARLY THIS MORNING. CYCLONIC NW FLOW AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR CENTRAL AND EAST PARTS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. AREA OF PV WILL FINALLY EXIT OUR EAST BY MIDDAY...SO
HAVE EXPANDED ISOLATED MORNING NUISANCE SHOWERS TO INCLUDE ROSEBUD
COUNTY EAST. ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF BY 18-19Z PER LATEST RAP AS
MID LEVELS BEGIN TO WARM AND WE ADVECT DRIER AIR FROM THE NW.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO APPROACHING PACIFIC ENERGY FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER OUR WESTERN MTNS AND FOOTHILLS
BEGINNING AROUND 20Z...WITH GREATEST FORCING TO ARRIVE AFTER 00Z.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS
ESPECIALLY TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST PARTS THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME ACTIVITY LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS WAVE LIFTS TO NORTHEAST MT.
THIS CONVECTION WILL NOT BE SEVERE...BUT WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ON
THE ORDER OF 5KFT COULD RESULT IN SOME SMALL HAIL...AND FAIRLY DRY
LOW LEVELS COULD YIELD 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STRONGER
CELLS AT SUCH PLACES AS LIVINGSTON AND HARLOWTON.
A DEEP-FOR-MID-JUNE UPPER LOW WILL DROP OVER WA/OR MONDAY...
RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT SW FLOW OVER OUR WEST. THUS
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT PER THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MID
LEVEL BAROCLINICITY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN
OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND SOME OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE CLOSER TO THE DAKOTAS BORDER AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS
INTO EASTERN MT AS THE UPPER LOW AMPLIFIES...WITH NOCTURNAL
ASCENT AIDED BY A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. COULD SEE SOME HAIL
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS AT BAKER RISE TO NEAR 0.90 INCHES.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW MID JUNE NORMALS. WITH GOOD MIXING AND
W-NW WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WE SHOULD SEE LOW TO MID 70S FOR
HIGHS. COOLING WILL BEGIN OUT WEST ON MONDAY...BUT EASTERN AREAS
WILL SEE UPPER 70S TOMORROW.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW. MAIN ISSUE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT
MODEL THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS AND WILL CONTINUE TRENDING THE
FORECAST TOWARD ITS SOLUTION.
UPPER TROUGH WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO
SC/SE MT ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM AS JET
DIVERGENCE AND STRONG QG FORCING WILL MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE WAVE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WILL
IMPACT THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH. COLD
POCKET OF AIR MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING SNOW TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECREASING ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH EXITS
INTO THE DAKOTA`S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS AN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BEHIND
THE WAVE. DRY WEATHER RETURNING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 50S AND 60S. UPPER RIDGE LATE IN THE
WEEK WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE LOCATED FROM MILES CITY EAST TO BAKER
THIS MORNING. LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM BILLINGS
TO LIVINGSTON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RICHMOND
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 051/073 051/064 046/064 049/075 052/082 054/086
1/B 23/T 56/T 65/T 32/T 21/U 11/U
LVM 070 043/067 041/057 038/058 044/074 046/079 048/081
3/T 46/T 66/T 65/T 42/T 21/U 22/T
HDN 074 049/076 052/067 048/067 049/075 052/085 054/089
1/B 23/T 56/T 65/T 33/T 21/B 11/U
MLS 072 051/078 055/068 052/068 050/071 053/082 056/086
2/W 22/T 57/T 76/T 33/T 22/T 11/U
4BQ 073 050/079 053/069 051/068 050/071 051/082 053/085
2/W 02/T 45/T 76/T 43/T 22/T 11/U
BHK 068 049/076 054/071 051/067 049/068 049/077 051/081
2/W 02/T 56/T 76/T 43/T 32/T 11/U
SHR 070 046/075 048/063 045/064 045/072 047/081 049/084
1/B 12/T 36/T 64/T 43/T 31/B 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
639 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
ELEMENTS NECESSARY FOR SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT COMING TOGETHER LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AN OPEN GULF THE LAST 24HR HAS ALLOWED STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. MESO ANALYSIS INDICATING
SFC DEW PTS IN THE LOW 70S HAVE PUSHED IN THE CWA ALONG WITH PWS
VALUES APPROACHING 1.75". WITH STRONG BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADV
UNDERWAY...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
SBCAPES PUSHING 5500J/KG...LI -14. ALONG WITH FAVORABLE EFF-SRH IN
PLACE...TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS QUITE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN CWA WHERE BEST 0-1KM SRH...LOW
LFC/LCL WILL BE FOCUSED. TWD LATE EVENING HRRR IS SHOWING STORMS
EVOLVING INTO AN MCS AS IT MOVES INTO NW IA.
TUES AND WED HEFTY MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE TO PHASE WITH
MUCH WARMER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN ALLOWING FOR QUITE MUGGY
CONDITIONS. NAM AND GFS STILL PROG HEAT INDICES APPROACHING/AROUND
100 DEG BOTH DAYS.
WED NIGHT...NEXT ROUND OF TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO FORM ON NOSE
OF LLVL JET/BNDRY LYR THETA-E CONVG. HVY RA LOOKS PROBABLE GIVEN
FAVORABLE PCPN EFFICIENCY/KI VALUES 40/PWS CLOSE TO 2". ACTIVITY
THEN PROGGED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY.
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
$$
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE REGION. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING
A FEW CELLS IN CNTRL NEB MOVING NE. APPEARS THAT ONE WILL PUSH
INTO KOFK BTWN 02Z-03Z THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE SLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY THE DURATION OF THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
742 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT. THE WARM FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT AND BRINGS PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY
LEVELS FOR TUESDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S. THEN...A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL USHER IN A VERY PLEASANT
CANADIAN AIR MASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES LATE IN
THE WEEK AND FOR THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT MONDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST...
MAINLY TO DOWNPLAY PCPN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
AND TO OFFER SLIGHTLY MORE CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ALL
BUT DRIED UP AS IT`S PROGRESSED EASTWARD INTO DRIER MORE STABLE
AIR ACROSS THE DACKS INTO VT SO OFFERED JUST A SLIGHT CHC FOR A
SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ALSO REMOVED
MENTION OF THUNDER. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO SKY GRIDS BUT LEANED
TOWARD LATEST BTV12 DATA WHICH APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING CURRENT
TRENDS QUITE WELL. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND
THERE...BUT DATA SUGGESTS WE`LL HAVE A HARD TIME MEETING TC
THRESHOLDS LATER TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF ADVANCING WARM FRONT
SO KEPT WITH PRIOR FORECAST IN OMITTING REFERENCE FOR NOW. HAVE A
GREAT EVENING.
PRIOR DISCUSSION...
AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE AND
FRANKLIN NY COUNTIES AT 1915Z WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS NRN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL NY. SHOWERS ARE PUSHING INTO ANTECEDENT
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RIDGE PRESENTLY ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE MESOSCALE
MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND BTV-4 AND 12KM WRF
RUNS...ANTICIPATE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKEWISE
OUTRUNNING THE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS WRN NY AND
SERN ONTARIO. THUS...HAVE LIMITED ANY SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION TO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH LATE
AFTN...AND THEN POPS SLOWLY DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE AS BAND OF
SHOWERS HEADS EWD INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN
VT. RAINFALL AMTS...GENERALLY JUST A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
SRN VT COUNTIES SHOULD STAY DRY WITH JUST SOME PASSING MID- LEVEL
CLOUDS 22-06Z. THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
LOCALLY NEAR 60F WITH CLOUDS AND LOCAL SOUTH WINDS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY KEEPING TEMPS A BIT HIGHER. WINDS TONIGHT
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HRS. A BIT OF CLEARING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS COULD
ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION TOWARD SUNRISE IN THE FAVORED
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL VT AND ALSO WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...AN EVEN WARMER DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY AS
850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +14 TO +15C BY 21Z IN THE WAKE OF WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-
MID 80S. 700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY IN PLACE THRU THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...THUS ANTICIPATE JUST SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE MARGINALLY
HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO AROUND 60...SO A BIT MORE
HUMID BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING OPPRESSIVE. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY
FOR TUESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE WITH POTENTIAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN ON WNWLY FLOW. 850MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS ALONG OUR SRN CWA BORDER...AND MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT
BRINGING MCS FEATURE ACROSS NY AND INTO VT AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE MODELS ARE A BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE
MCS...AS DECAYING STAGE OF THESE FEATURES TENDS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC TURN. THIS MAY TAKE THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION JUST TO OUR SOUTH...BUT PASSAGE OF MID-LEVEL VORT COULD
STILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS. PENDING
KNOWLEDGE OF MESOSCALE DETAILS...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS WITH A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS.
MAIN THREAT WOULD BE SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. S-SW WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS WARM OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA.
THERMAL RIDGE AXIS STILL IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS WITH
INTERVALS OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SEWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL CARRY
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTM WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH ANY COLD ADVECTION HOLDING
OFF UNTIL AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
STRONG MID-LEVEL DRYING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF OUR REGION AND MID-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES NWLY WITH DRYING AND LOW-LEVEL CAA. ANTICIPATE SLOW
CLEARING...WITH TRAPPED MOISTURE JUST BELOW THE FRONTAL INVERSION
MAKING POTENTIAL STRATUS LAYER SLOW TO DISSIPATE. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN TERMS OF THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. NLY SURFACE
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH ARE EXPECTED...DIMINISHING LATE. TRENDING TOWARD
COOLER NAM-MOS WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S...EXCEPT UPR 40S
POSSIBLE IN THE COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AGAIN DEPENDING ON RATE OF OVERNIGHT CLEARING. MAY
SEE PATCHY FOG LATE NRN NY AND CENTRAL/ERN VT VLYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES
TO LOOK SEASONAL AND RATHER DRY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING
MORE UNSETTLED THEREAFTER. AS A LARGE CUTOFF LOW SETTLES OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE
UNDER A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER
LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WHILE THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AND WHILE
THE AIRMASS MOISTENS SLIGHTLY...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
FINALLY...BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM A
DECAYING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS APPROACHES THE
REGION RENEWING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S...AND LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME BRIEF FOG/BR
POSSIBLE AT MSS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A BROKEN VFR DECK OF CLOUDS
WITH LOWEST CEILINGS 4000-6000 FEET AND ABOVE WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SKIES WILL
BRIEFLY CLEAR BEHIND THIS...WITH MSS CLEARING AROUND 06Z AND SLK
AROUND 09Z. THIS MAY BE A LONG ENOUGH CLEARING...WHEN COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS...INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND HIGHER
SURFACE DEW POINTS...AT MSS FOR SOME PATCHY FOG/BR TO FORM. HAVE
SHOWN THIS WITH A TEMPO TO 4SM BR FOR NOW BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. NOT
MUCH IF ANY FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND ADDED
CLOUD COVER. THESE LOWER CLOUDS MOVE EASTWARD FOR TUESDAY WITH
ONLY A HIGH CIRRUS DECK EXPECTED. RELATIVELY LIGHT AND LOCALLY
VARIABLE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED THRU 12Z THU...GENERALLY VFR WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED IFR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
12Z THU THRU 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
740 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT. THE WARM FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT AND BRINGS PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY
LEVELS FOR TUESDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S. THEN...A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL USHER IN A VERY PLEASANT
CANADIAN AIR MASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES LATE IN
THE WEEK AND FOR THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT MONDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST...
MAINLY TO DOWNPLAY PCPN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
AND TO OFFER SLIGHTLY MORE CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ALL
BUT DRIED UP AS IT`S PROGRESSED EASTWARD INTO DRIER MORE STABLE
AIR ACROSS THE DACKS INTO VT SO OFFERED JUST A SLIGHT CHC FOR A
SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ALSO REMOVED
MENTION OF THUNDER. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO SKY GRIDS BUT LEANED
TOWARD LATEST BTV12 DATA WHICH APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING CURRENT
TRENDS QUITE WELL. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND
THERE...BUT DATA SUGGESTS WE`LL HAVE A HARD TIME MEETING TC
THRESHOLDS LATER TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF ADVANCING WARM FRONT
SO KEPT WITH PRIOR FORECAST IN OMITTING REFERENCE FOR NOW. HAVE A
GREAT EVENING.
PRIOR DISCUSSION...
AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE AND
FRANKLIN NY COUNTIES AT 1915Z WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS NRN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL NY. SHOWERS ARE PUSHING INTO ANTECEDENT
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RIDGE PRESENTLY ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE MESOSCALE
MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND BTV-4 AND 12KM WRF
RUNS...ANTICIPATE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKEWISE
OUTRUNNING THE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS WRN NY AND
SERN ONTARIO. THUS...HAVE LIMITED ANY SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION TO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH LATE
AFTN...AND THEN POPS SLOWLY DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE AS BAND OF
SHOWERS HEADS EWD INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN
VT. RAINFALL AMTS...GENERALLY JUST A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
SRN VT COUNTIES SHOULD STAY DRY WITH JUST SOME PASSING MID- LEVEL
CLOUDS 22-06Z. THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
LOCALLY NEAR 60F WITH CLOUDS AND LOCAL SOUTH WINDS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY KEEPING TEMPS A BIT HIGHER. WINDS TONIGHT
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HRS. A BIT OF CLEARING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS COULD
ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION TOWARD SUNRISE IN THE FAVORED
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL VT AND ALSO WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...AN EVEN WARMER DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY AS
850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +14 TO +15C BY 21Z IN THE WAKE OF WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-
MID 80S. 700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY IN PLACE THRU THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...THUS ANTICIPATE JUST SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE MARGINALLY
HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO AROUND 60...SO A BIT MORE
HUMID BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING OPPRESSIVE. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY
FOR TUESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE WITH POTENTIAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN ON WNWLY FLOW. 850MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS ALONG OUR SRN CWA BORDER...AND MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT
BRINGING MCS FEATURE ACROSS NY AND INTO VT AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE MODELS ARE A BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE
MCS...AS DECAYING STAGE OF THESE FEATURES TENDS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC TURN. THIS MAY TAKE THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION JUST TO OUR SOUTH...BUT PASSAGE OF MID-LEVEL VORT COULD
STILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS. PENDING
KNOWLEDGE OF MESOSCALE DETAILS...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS WITH A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS.
MAIN THREAT WOULD BE SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. S-SW WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS WARM OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA.
THERMAL RIDGE AXIS STILL IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS WITH
INTERVALS OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SEWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL CARRY
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTM WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH ANY COLD ADVECTION HOLDING
OFF UNTIL AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
STRONG MID-LEVEL DRYING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF OUR REGION AND MID-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES NWLY WITH DRYING AND LOW-LEVEL CAA. ANTICIPATE SLOW
CLEARING...WITH TRAPPED MOISTURE JUST BELOW THE FRONTAL INVERSION
MAKING POTENTIAL STRATUS LAYER SLOW TO DISSIPATE. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN TERMS OF THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. NLY SURFACE
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH ARE EXPECTED...DIMINISHING LATE. TRENDING TOWARD
COOLER NAM-MOS WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S...EXCEPT UPR 40S
POSSIBLE IN THE COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AGAIN DEPENDING ON RATE OF OVERNIGHT CLEARING. MAY
SEE PATCHY FOG LATE NRN NY AND CENTRAL/ERN VT VLYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES
TO LOOK SEASONAL AND RATHER DRY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING
MORE UNSETTLED THEREAFTER. AS A LARGE CUTOFF LOW SETTLES OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE
UNDER A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER
LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WHILE THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AND WHILE
THE AIRMASS MOISTENS SLIGHTLY...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
FINALLY...BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM A
DECAYING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS APPROACHES THE
REGION RENEWING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S...AND LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME BRIEF FOG/BR
POSSIBLE AT MSS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A BROKEN VFR DECK OF CLOUDS
WITH LOWEST CEILINGS 4000-6000 FEET AND ABOVE WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SKIES WILL
BRIEFLY CLEAR BEHIND THIS...WITH MSS CLEARING AROUND 06Z AND SLK
AROUND 09Z. THIS MAY BE A LONG ENOUGH CLEARING...WHEN COMBINED
WITH LIGHT WINDS...INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND HIGHER
SURFACE DEW POINTS...AT MSS FOR SOME PATCHY FOG/BR TO FORM. HAVE
SHOWN THIS WITH 4SM BR FOR NOW BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. NOT MUCH IF
ANY FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND ADDED CLOUD
COVER. THESE LOWER CLOUDS MOVE EASTWARD FOR TUESDAY WITH ONLY A
HIGH CIRRUS DECK EXPECTED. RELATIVELY LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
00Z WED THRU 12Z THU...GENERALLY VFR WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED IFR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
12Z THU THRU 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
725 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ALONG WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT. THE WARM FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT AND BRINGS PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY
LEVELS FOR TUESDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S. THEN...A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL USHER IN A VERY PLEASANT
CANADIAN AIR MASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES LATE IN
THE WEEK AND FOR THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT MONDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST...
MAINLY TO DOWNPLAY PCPN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
AND TO OFFER SLIGHTLY MORE CLEARING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING TONIGHT. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ALL
BUT DRIED UP AS IT`S PROGRESSED EASTWARD INTO DRIER MORE STABLE
AIR ACROSS THE DACKS INTO VT SO OFFERED JUST A SLIGHT CHC FOR A
SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ALSO REMOVED
MENTION OF THUNDER. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO SKY GRIDS BUT LEANED
TOWARD LATEST BTV12 DATA WHICH APPEARS TO BE CAPTURING CURRENT
TRENDS QUITE WELL. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG HERE AND
THERE...BUT DATA SUGGESTS WE`LL HAVE A HARD TIME MEETING TC
THRESHOLDS LATER TONIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF ADVANCING WARM FRONT
SO KEPT WITH PRIOR FORECAST IN OMITTING REFERENCE FOR NOW. HAVE A
GREAT EVENING.
PRIOR DISCUSSION...
AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE AND
FRANKLIN NY COUNTIES AT 1915Z WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS NRN HALF OF
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL NY. SHOWERS ARE PUSHING INTO ANTECEDENT
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RIDGE PRESENTLY ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE MESOSCALE
MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND BTV-4 AND 12KM WRF
RUNS...ANTICIPATE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKEWISE
OUTRUNNING THE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS WRN NY AND
SERN ONTARIO. THUS...HAVE LIMITED ANY SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION TO ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH LATE
AFTN...AND THEN POPS SLOWLY DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE AS BAND OF
SHOWERS HEADS EWD INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN
VT. RAINFALL AMTS...GENERALLY JUST A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
SRN VT COUNTIES SHOULD STAY DRY WITH JUST SOME PASSING MID- LEVEL
CLOUDS 22-06Z. THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...EXCEPT
LOCALLY NEAR 60F WITH CLOUDS AND LOCAL SOUTH WINDS IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY KEEPING TEMPS A BIT HIGHER. WINDS TONIGHT
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY...BECOMING S-SW 5-10 MPH DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HRS. A BIT OF CLEARING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS COULD
ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION TOWARD SUNRISE IN THE FAVORED
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL VT AND ALSO WITHIN THE NRN ADIRONDACK REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...AN EVEN WARMER DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY AS
850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +14 TO +15C BY 21Z IN THE WAKE OF WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW-
MID 80S. 700MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY IN PLACE THRU THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...THUS ANTICIPATE JUST SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE MARGINALLY
HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE UPR 50S TO AROUND 60...SO A BIT MORE
HUMID BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING OPPRESSIVE. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY
FOR TUESDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE WITH POTENTIAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN ON WNWLY FLOW. 850MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS ALONG OUR SRN CWA BORDER...AND MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT
BRINGING MCS FEATURE ACROSS NY AND INTO VT AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE MODELS ARE A BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE
MCS...AS DECAYING STAGE OF THESE FEATURES TENDS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC TURN. THIS MAY TAKE THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION JUST TO OUR SOUTH...BUT PASSAGE OF MID-LEVEL VORT COULD
STILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS. PENDING
KNOWLEDGE OF MESOSCALE DETAILS...WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS WITH A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY 500 J/KG OR LESS.
MAIN THREAT WOULD BE SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. S-SW WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS WARM OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA.
THERMAL RIDGE AXIS STILL IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS WITH
INTERVALS OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SEWD FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL CARRY
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTM WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH ANY COLD ADVECTION HOLDING
OFF UNTIL AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
STRONG MID-LEVEL DRYING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF OUR REGION AND MID-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES NWLY WITH DRYING AND LOW-LEVEL CAA. ANTICIPATE SLOW
CLEARING...WITH TRAPPED MOISTURE JUST BELOW THE FRONTAL INVERSION
MAKING POTENTIAL STRATUS LAYER SLOW TO DISSIPATE. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN TERMS OF THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. NLY SURFACE
WINDS OF 5-10 MPH ARE EXPECTED...DIMINISHING LATE. TRENDING TOWARD
COOLER NAM-MOS WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 50S...EXCEPT UPR 40S
POSSIBLE IN THE COOLER SPOTS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AGAIN DEPENDING ON RATE OF OVERNIGHT CLEARING. MAY
SEE PATCHY FOG LATE NRN NY AND CENTRAL/ERN VT VLYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES
TO LOOK SEASONAL AND RATHER DRY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING
MORE UNSETTLED THEREAFTER. AS A LARGE CUTOFF LOW SETTLES OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE
UNDER A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER
LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WHILE THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AND WHILE
THE AIRMASS MOISTENS SLIGHTLY...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
FINALLY...BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM A
DECAYING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS APPROACHES THE
REGION RENEWING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S...AND LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE AT
KSLK. MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LOWER TOWARDS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE BUT WILL REMAIN VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL AFFECT KMSS FROM 18-21Z...AND POSSIBLY KSLK
FROM 19-22Z BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING MUCH FURTHER EAST.
CIGS REMAIN BKN-OVC THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE TRENDING BACK TOWARDS
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT AND
TIMING OF CLEARING KSLK WILL HAVE A SHOT OF ANOTHER NIGHT OF VLIFR
FOG FROM 08-12Z...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY HAVE JUST INCLUDED A
TEMPO FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
18Z TUE THRU 12Z THU...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED MVFR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED IFR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
12Z THU THRU 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/JMG
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
411 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOL NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND CLEAR SKIES. SOME PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MONDAY WILL
FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE TIMING OF
CLRING SKIES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. SOUNDINGS STILL
SHOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THIS MORNING WITH
UPSLOPE FLW. USING THE RAP SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW CLOUDS
BREAKING UP BY 15Z AT BTV AND BTWN 15Z-17Z ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS
AND PARTS OF THE GREEN MTNS...AS MIXING DEVELOPS. THE WESTERN CPV
AND LWR CT VALLEY SHOULD CLR QUICKLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLW. PROGGED 85H TEMPS AROUND 10C WITH GOOD MIXING THIS
AFTN...SUPPORT HIGHS U60S MTNS TO MID 70S WARMER VALLEYS...WITH
MAYBE A FEW U70S POSSIBLE IN THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH
PRES IS LOCATED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...RESULTING
IN MAINLY CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
QUICKLY DROP THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED MTN
VALLEYS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S DACKS/NEK TO NEAR 50F
CPV/UHI. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED MID 30S FOR SLK...CRNT MAV FOR SLK
IS SHOWING 32F. ALSO...GIVEN PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH...EXPECT
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY CT RIVER VALLEY AND DEEPER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL VT. TEMPS WL QUICKLY WARM ON MONDAY WITH LLVL
WAA AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY
00Z TUES...SUPPORTING HIGHS M70S MTNS/NEK TO L/M 80S WARMER
VALLEY. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW DECAYING 5H VORT AND WEAK TROF
APPROACHING THE SLV AROUND 21Z AND MOVING INTO THE CPV BY 03Z
TUES. THIS SYSTEM WL BE ENCOUNTERING DEEP DRY LAYER ASSOCIATED
WITH RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY. THINKING A WEAK LINE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH VERY MINOR/LIGHT QPF. WL MENTION SCHC/LOW CHC POPS
BTWN 21Z MONDAY INTO 06Z TUES...BUT NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT...ONLY
A QUICK SHOWER AND BEST CHC SLV. TEMPS WL BE WARMER ON MONDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASED SFC DWPTS...SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND MORE
CLOUDS. EXPECTING LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE L/M 50S NEK TO L/M 60S
CPV/SLV.
TUESDAY...WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED 5H VORT
MOVING ACRS OUR NORTHERN ZNS BTWN 18Z-00Z. INCREASED LLVL MOISTURE
WL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND GREATER INSTABILITY. NAM/GFS
SHOW CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG WITH GREATEST VALUES ACRS
THE NORTHERN SLV ON TUES ALONG WITH LIS BTWN -1C AND -3C. SOME
INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED
ACRS OUR FA ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN VERY SLIGHT CHCS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE AREA WL REMAIN DRY WITH
GREATEST POPS ACRS THE DACKS/SLV AFT 18Z. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE PROFILES QPF AMOUNTS WL BE LIGHT AND ANY SHOWER WL ONLY BE
10 TO 20 MINUTES. 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...SUPPORTING
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EDT SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LEANED TOWARDS THE EARLIER TIMING OF
THE ECMWF WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE ITS DEPICTION OF
MCS WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL LOOKS OVERDONE. HAVE GONE WITH POPS
ANYWHERE FROM 30 TO 50 PERCENT FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF FOR
THURSDAY. GFS MAINTAINS WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
...WITH COLD FRONT BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...INDICATES DRIER AND COOLER NORTHWEST
FLOW. STAYED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH HAS MAINTAINED
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SCENARIO OVER PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. BY
FRIDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT OUR WEATHER WILL BE
DOMINATED BY CUTOFF LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S...THEN COOL TO SEASONAL NORMS LATER IN THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE 50S...EXCEPT 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM
LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT WILL
GIVE WAY TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE AT MPV.
ANTICIPATING MAINLY VFR AT MSS/PBG...MIX OF VFR/MVFR AT
BTV/RUT...MVFR WITH BRF IFR POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK. CLOUDS LINGER
SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH CIGS VFR ALL SITES AFTER 12Z. CLEAR
SKIES THEN EXPECTED AFTER 16Z THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL GUST TO 15-18 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. COULD SEE FOG WITH
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE ALL TAF LOCATIONS 06Z-12Z MONDAY.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN PCPN POSSIBLE. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR
TUE-THU.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
407 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOL NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND CLEAR SKIES. SOME PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MONDAY WILL
FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE TIMING OF
CLRING SKIES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. SOUNDINGS STILL
SHOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THIS MORNING WITH
UPSLOPE FLW. USING THE RAP SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW CLOUDS
BREAKING UP BY 15Z AT BTV AND BTWN 15Z-17Z ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS
AND PARTS OF THE GREEN MTNS...AS MIXING DEVELOPS. THE WESTERN CPV
AND LWR CT VALLEY SHOULD CLR QUICKLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLW. PROGGED 85H TEMPS AROUND 10C WITH GOOD MIXING THIS
AFTN...SUPPORT HIGHS U60S MTNS TO MID 70S WARMER VALLEYS...WITH
MAYBE A FEW U70S POSSIBLE IN THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH
PRES IS LOCATED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...RESULTING
IN MAINLY CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
QUICKLY DROP THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED MTN
VALLEYS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S DACKS/NEK TO NEAR 50F
CPV/UHI. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED MID 30S FOR SLK...CRNT MAV FOR SLK
IS SHOWING 32F. ALSO...GIVEN PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH...EXPECT
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY CT RIVER VALLEY AND DEEPER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL VT. TEMPS WL QUICKLY WARM ON MONDAY WITH LLVL
WAA AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY
00Z TUES...SUPPORTING HIGHS M70S MTNS/NEK TO L/M 80S WARMER
VALLEY. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW DECAYING 5H VORT AND WEAK TROF
APPROACHING THE SLV AROUND 21Z AND MOVING INTO THE CPV BY 03Z
TUES. THIS SYSTEM WL BE ENCOUNTERING DEEP DRY LAYER ASSOCIATED
WITH RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY. THINKING A WEAK LINE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH VERY MINOR/LIGHT QPF. WL MENTION SCHC/LOW CHC POPS
BTWN 21Z MONDAY INTO 06Z TUES...BUT NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT...ONLY
A QUICK SHOWER AND BEST CHC SLV. TEMPS WL BE WARMER ON MONDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASED SFC DWPTS...SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND MORE
CLOUDS. EXPECTING LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE L/M 50S NEK TO L/M 60S
CPV/SLV.
TUESDAY...WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED 5H VORT
MOVING ACRS OUR NORTHERN ZNS BTWN 18Z-00Z. INCREASED LLVL MOISTURE
WL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND GREATER INSTABILITY. NAM/GFS
SHOW CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG WITH GREATEST VALUES ACRS
THE NORTHERN SLV ON TUES ALONG WITH LIS BTWN -1C AND -3C. SOME
INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED
ACRS OUR FA ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN VERY SLIGHT CHCS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE AREA WL REMAIN DRY WITH
GREATEST POPS ACRS THE DACKS/SLV AFT 18Z. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE PROFILES QPF AMOUNTS WL BE LIGHT AND ANY SHOWER WL ONLY BE
10 TO 20 MINUTES. 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...SUPPORTING
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT SATURDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET FORECAST PERIOD IS
SHAPING UP FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS
GENERALLY ZONAL ON TUESDAY WITH WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
(+15C TO +16C). THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OUR WARMEST DAY WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. ABSENCE
OF FORCING FOR ASCENT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS
POINT. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A TRANSITION TO A NWLY FLOW REGIME
ALOFT FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
TROUGH PASSAGE...INCLUDED A 30-40 POP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THRU
WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL TROUGH...WITH POSSIBLE MCS MOVING THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT THIS POINT...DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS CONVECTIVE FEATURE IN THE ABSENCE
OF ANY SUPPORT FROM THE GFS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. THUS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW 80S. A DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS THEN
WORKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH PW
VALUES FALLING FROM NEAR 1-1.1" ON WEDNESDAY...DOWN TO 0.5-0.6"
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT WEATHER
AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 74-78F RANGE...BUT SKIES SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT WILL
GIVE WAY TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE AT MPV.
ANTICIPATING MAINLY VFR AT MSS/PBG...MIX OF VFR/MVFR AT
BTV/RUT...MVFR WITH BRF IFR POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK. CLOUDS LINGER
SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH CIGS VFR ALL SITES AFTER 12Z. CLEAR
SKIES THEN EXPECTED AFTER 16Z THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL GUST TO 15-18 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. COULD SEE FOG WITH
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE ALL TAF LOCATIONS 06Z-12Z MONDAY.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN PCPN POSSIBLE. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR
TUE-THU.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
136 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY BRING SUNSHINE
TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS ON SUNDAY AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW. NOTICEABLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...BUT SUNSHINE AND
LOWER HUMIDITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXIST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED FCST TO REMOVE MENTION OF POPS
AND ADJUSTED TEMPS UP BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES BASED ON MORE CLOUDS AND
NW WINDS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACRS
THE NORTHERN CPV AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING. THESE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH NW
WINDS OF 4 TO 8 KNOTS WL KEEP TEMPS IN THE U40S MTNS TO M/U 50S
WARMER VALLEYS TONIGHT.
PRIOR DISCUSSION...MINOR UPDATE TO REFLECT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACROSS OUR NRN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS UPPER
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC. SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
SLV/DACKS EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO CLOSING SHORTWAVE
ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL NEAR 500 MB. NEARLY ALL MESOSCALE
MODELS INCLUDING LATEST RAP INDICATES SRN QUEBEC SHOWERS WILL DROP
SOUTH IN A DECAYING FASHION INTO OUR NRN VT COUNTIES THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT OR SO WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGH AND
LOSS OF INSOLATION. BASED OFF THIS THINKING HAVE INTRODUCED 20/40
POPS ACCORDINGLY IN THESE NORTHERN LOCALES...BUT ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. MANY AREAS TO
REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WIDELY VARIED AS OF 7 PM WITH MANY RAIN-
COOLED AREAS ACROSS NRN NY ALREADY IN THE 50S AND A SPOT 52F AT
KSLK...MORE REMINISCENT OF EARLY SPRING NOT MID-JUNE. WITH AT
LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL
APPEAR ON TRACK...GENERALLY 45 TO 55. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF PATCHY
FOG AS WELL...BUT PRONOUNCED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS SHOULD FOSTER ENOUGH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ATOP THE NOCTURNAL
BOUNDARY LAYER TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE. HAVE A GREAT
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT SATURDAY...WARMING TREND TO TAKE PLACE WITH
SUNSHINE...DRY WEATHER...AND LOWER HUMIDITIES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS WILL GO AWAY EARLY. THUS EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES AT 925 MILLIBARS BEGIN TO WARM AND THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING UP INTO THE 70S. LOWER
DEW POINTS WILL ALSO HELP AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES AT 925 MB WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION. DESPITE
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...DEW POINTS
WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AND THAT COULD HELP WARM THE
TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE ALONG WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THUS
LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S...BUT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES REMAINING IN
THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS FEATURE
WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE SO NOT THINKING
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT SATURDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET FORECAST PERIOD IS
SHAPING UP FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS
GENERALLY ZONAL ON TUESDAY WITH WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
(+15C TO +16C). THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OUR WARMEST DAY WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. ABSENCE
OF FORCING FOR ASCENT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS
POINT. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A TRANSITION TO A NWLY FLOW REGIME
ALOFT FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
TROUGH PASSAGE...INCLUDED A 30-40 POP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THRU
WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL TROUGH...WITH POSSIBLE MCS MOVING THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT THIS POINT...DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS CONVECTIVE FEATURE IN THE ABSENCE
OF ANY SUPPORT FROM THE GFS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. THUS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW 80S. A DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS THEN
WORKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH PW
VALUES FALLING FROM NEAR 1-1.1" ON WEDNESDAY...DOWN TO 0.5-0.6"
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT WEATHER
AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 74-78F RANGE...BUT SKIES SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT WILL
GIVE WAY TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE AT MPV.
ANTICIPATING MAINLY VFR AT MSS/PBG...MIX OF VFR/MVFR AT
BTV/RUT...MVFR WITH BRF IFR POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK. CLOUDS LINGER
SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH CIGS VFR ALL SITES AFTER 12Z. CLEAR
SKIES THEN EXPECTED AFTER 16Z THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL GUST TO 15-18 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. COULD SEE FOG WITH
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE ALL TAF LOCATIONS 06Z-12Z MONDAY.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN PCPN POSSIBLE. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR
TUE-THU.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
103 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY BRING SUNSHINE
TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS ON SUNDAY AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW. NOTICEABLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...BUT SUNSHINE AND
LOWER HUMIDITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXIST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED FCST TO REMOVE MENTION OF POPS
AND ADJUSTED TEMPS UP BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES BASED ON MORE CLOUDS AND
NW WINDS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACRS
THE NORTHERN CPV AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING. THESE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH NW
WINDS OF 4 TO 8 KNOTS WL KEEP TEMPS IN THE U40S MTNS TO M/U 50S
WARMER VALLEYS TONIGHT.
PRIOR DISCUSSION...MINOR UPDATE TO REFLECT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACROSS OUR NRN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS UPPER
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC. SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
SLV/DACKS EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO CLOSING SHORTWAVE
ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL NEAR 500 MB. NEARLY ALL MESOSCALE
MODELS INCLUDING LATEST RAP INDICATES SRN QUEBEC SHOWERS WILL DROP
SOUTH IN A DECAYING FASHION INTO OUR NRN VT COUNTIES THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT OR SO WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGH AND
LOSS OF INSOLATION. BASED OFF THIS THINKING HAVE INTRODUCED 20/40
POPS ACCORDINGLY IN THESE NORTHERN LOCALES...BUT ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. MANY AREAS TO
REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WIDELY VARIED AS OF 7 PM WITH MANY RAIN-
COOLED AREAS ACROSS NRN NY ALREADY IN THE 50S AND A SPOT 52F AT
KSLK...MORE REMINISCENT OF EARLY SPRING NOT MID-JUNE. WITH AT
LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL
APPEAR ON TRACK...GENERALLY 45 TO 55. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF PATCHY
FOG AS WELL...BUT PRONOUNCED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS SHOULD FOSTER ENOUGH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ATOP THE NOCTURNAL
BOUNDARY LAYER TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE. HAVE A GREAT
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT SATURDAY...WARMING TREND TO TAKE PLACE WITH
SUNSHINE...DRY WEATHER...AND LOWER HUMIDITIES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS WILL GO AWAY EARLY. THUS EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES AT 925 MILLIBARS BEGIN TO WARM AND THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING UP INTO THE 70S. LOWER
DEW POINTS WILL ALSO HELP AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES AT 925 MB WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION. DESPITE
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...DEW POINTS
WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AND THAT COULD HELP WARM THE
TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE ALONG WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THUS
LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S...BUT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES REMAINING IN
THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS FEATURE
WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE SO NOT THINKING
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT SATURDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET FORECAST PERIOD IS
SHAPING UP FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS
GENERALLY ZONAL ON TUESDAY WITH WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
(+15C TO +16C). THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OUR WARMEST DAY WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. ABSENCE
OF FORCING FOR ASCENT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS
POINT. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A TRANSITION TO A NWLY FLOW REGIME
ALOFT FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
TROUGH PASSAGE...INCLUDED A 30-40 POP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THRU
WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL TROUGH...WITH POSSIBLE MCS MOVING THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT THIS POINT...DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS CONVECTIVE FEATURE IN THE ABSENCE
OF ANY SUPPORT FROM THE GFS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. THUS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW 80S. A DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS THEN
WORKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH PW
VALUES FALLING FROM NEAR 1-1.1" ON WEDNESDAY...DOWN TO 0.5-0.6"
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT WEATHER
AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 74-78F RANGE...BUT SKIES SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE
WAY TO VASTLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. STRATUS DECK OF
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/BTV/MPV IN NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECTING
BIGGEST IMPACT IN THE FORM OF CEILING REDUCTIONS. ANTICIPATING MAINLY
VFR AT MSS/PBG...MIX OF VFR/MVFR AT BTV...DEVELOPING MVFR AT
MPV/RUT...AND IFR GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR AT SLK. SOME 3-6SM
BR ALSO LIKELY AT SLK...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF REDUCTION
ELSEWHERE IN A COUPLE RAIN SHOWERS. CONDITIONS DRASTICALLY
IMPROVE ON SUNDAY TO VFR AT ALL SITES AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT PICK BACK UP TO 5-10 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-18 KNOTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY MPV.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. COULD SEE FOG
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE ALL TAF LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN PCPN POSSIBLE. A FEW AFTN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR TUE- THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1005 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
FOLLOWING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 03 UTC AND THE 01-02 UTC
RAP/HRRR...CONVECTION AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE WITH SUNSET ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AS
IMPULSES CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
FOLLOWING THE 20-21 UTC RAP/HRRR RUNS...SUPPORTED BY STABLE 18 UTC
NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE LACK OF A CUMULUS FIELD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...REMOVED POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA
HIGHWAY 3. ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ISOLATED CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED.
HOWEVER...RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE LIMITING
INTENSITY. ML CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40
KTS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION...HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE ISOLATED. FINALLY...GIVEN UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW...DID ADD
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE...GO FIGURE.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH INTO WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA ALONG AN OLD
BOUNDARY. LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DEVELOPING BOUNDARY INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TRACKING EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BUMPED UP POPS TO
CHANCE CATEGORY IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP CONTINUE TO DIMINISH CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER EASTER
MONTANA...BUT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY...THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. CONSIDERED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT WITH THE INCREASED POTENTIAL HOLDING OFF
UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT MORE LIKE TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK. PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD ADDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE
FAR WEST AND WILL CONTINUE THIS AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT REGARDING MOVING THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD AND MOVING A RIDGE
INTO THE DAKOTAS BY THE WEEKEND.
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THE NEAR TERM PLACING THE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THURSDAY...AND
MOVING IT EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: ON TUESDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM A LOW OVER KANSAS NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
DURING THIS TIME THE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN
PLACE. A LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL
FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...AND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF CAPE AND SHEAR FOR SUSTAINING
THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. BY WEDNESDAY THE THREAT
IS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 85.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE NEAR
THE ND/MT/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE...WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: BY THE END OF THE WEEK THERE
WILL HAVE BEEN A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
- WITH THE ADDITIONAL THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND
BUILD A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER MONTANA/DAKOTAS. A FEW WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE WEAK RIDGE WILL RESULT IN ONLY
SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. KDIK REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO BE
IMPACTED. WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR FOG AND
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KDIK AND POSSIBLY KISN AND KBIS.
KMOT AND KJMS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF THIS FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
708 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CATEGORICAL POPS NEED TO BE
EXTENDED WEST INTO THE VALLEY (TRACK OF THE 700MB LOW IS FURTHER
WEST THAN MOST MODELS INDICATE). 12Z RADAR IMAGERY ARGUES FOR THE
RAP GUIDANCE. WILL MAKE THE NECESSARY CHANGES IN THE GRIDS. THIS
ALSO EXTENDS THE 1+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE VALLEY...WITH 0.25-0.75 INCHES LIKELY WITHIN THE
VALLEY...DECREASING TO TRACE AMOUNTS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
VALLEY.
THERE IS NO NEED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD BECAUSE OF
THIS FORECAST SHIFT. LOOKING AT THE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS PAST
WEEK...THE 2+ INCH REPORTS ARE CONFINED TO AREAS WITHIN THE FLOOD
WATCH...AND AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE WATCH SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HANDLE 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
AREAS WITHIN THE FLOOD WATCH ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 1-2
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN FA AND
PRECIP CHANCES FOR TODAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TODAY. UPPER WAVE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL PROPAGATE INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA BY 18Z. 700MB LOW WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS
TIME...LOCATED JUST EAST OF BAUDETTE BY 18Z-20Z. THIS 700MB LOW
LOCATION IS BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS AND COULD FLUCTUATE...BUT THE
03Z SREF HAS COME IN TRENDING FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS (IT HAD BEEN MUCH FURTHER
EAST)...WHICH HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TODAY.
STRONG DEFORMATION...COMBINED WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
RAINFALL OF 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE VALLEY.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING...LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AS THESE
AMOUNTS COULD AGAIN CAUSE MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST
WILL COMBINE WITH A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE HEAVIER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LOW.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING (MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA). MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON ACTUAL TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES EJECTING FROM MEAN
WEST COAST TROUGH. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
REGION WHERE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THE GREATEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR STRONG STORMS...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE AN
ISOLD SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 500MB EVOLUTION
THE MOST UNCERTAIN WRT CLOSED 500MB LOW LIFTING INTO TO
SASKATCHEWAN CANADA...PER THE 00Z EC OR OVER SOUTH DAKOTA PER 00Z
GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. WILL KEEP INHERITED LIKELY POPS THURSDAY FOR
FROPA WITH AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. POTENTIAL DOES EXIST IF 500MB
CLOSED SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FOR SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF
PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IF THE GFS SOLN VERIFIES.
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD WITH LOW TO HIGH 70S EXPECTED FOR
MAX TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE VALLEY. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...THEN BECOMING VFR AS THE SHOWERS END BY LATER THIS
MORNING OR AFTERNOON. THIS AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES...AND INCLUDED VCTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MNZ006-009-016-017-023-024-
028-031-032.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
133 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
RADAR IMAGERY NEARLY VOID OF ANY ECHOS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...SO HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS.
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA SHOULD ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA 9-12Z...INCREASING IN COVERAGE ON SUNDAY AS DAYTIME
HEATING COMMENCES DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE.
EXPANDED THE AERIAL COVERAGE OF FOG WORDING NOW THROUGH 15Z WITH
NUMEROUS SITES NOW REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS APPROACH ZERO. WILL MONITOR THE FOG FOR POSSIBLE
FURTHER ACTION. OTHER CHANGE WAS TO DROP TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS
THE WEST WHERE WE`RE ALREADY SEEING MID TO UPPER 40S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED ACROSS
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WILL UPDATED FOR THIS AND ADDED SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA...SO ADDED AND TAILORED POPS FOR THIS TREND. RAIN
ENDING SOUTH CENTRAL AND DIMINISHING EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MADE CHANGES BASED ON LATEST SAT/RADAR TRENDS ADDING RAP MODEL
FORECAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE RAP MODEL HAS THE RENDS
RIGHT BUT IS A BIT SLOW IN ENDING THE PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING
SUGGESTING THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BUT T WILL END AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTION
CHANCES AND PLACEMENT.
CURRENTLY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN BACK NORTHWEST
TOWARDS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. AN IMPULSE OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD...PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST RADARS INDICATE BACK EDGE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
FROM AROUND BOWMAN TO DICKINSON NORTHWARD TO STANLEY. TO THE WEST
OF THIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER EASTERN MONTANA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE 16 UTC HRRR STILL INDICATES
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN MONTANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ROTATING INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. THUS WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
TO THE EAST...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS ALSO TRACKING ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE FAR SOUTHEAST FROM JAMESTOWN SOUTH
THROUGH OAKES IS THE ONLY AREA OF THE CWA INDICATING MINOR
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. BUT WITH
CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE JAMES WILL KNOCK DOWN THE
MEAGER AT BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONGER CELLS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT OVERALL THE SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP SOME
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AND UPPER LOW.
THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SUNDAY...KEEPING
THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. BUT THE
RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
PERHAPS ABOUT A 12HR TO 18HR WINDOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WHERE THERE WILL NOT BE A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS A
WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW
QUICKLY RETURNS BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER SLOW MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SURFACE LOW
REFLECTION ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY. WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES RIDING OVER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG WITH SOME
JET STREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME ENHANCING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...EXPECT
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS
AND NOSE NORTH FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
THIS WOULD PRODUCE A WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN. UNTIL
THEN...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE SHORT TERM WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ON A DAILY BASIS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
MAIN AVIATION HAZARD NOW THROUGH 15Z WILL BE AREAS OF FOG AND LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. ALL TERMINALS MAY
BE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY KBIS AND KMOT. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE MVFR
CIGS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...KISN-KMOT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1222 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT WRN AR OVER THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS AND EXPECT THE AREA TO REMAIN MOSTLY
RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL
LIFT AS WELL. COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
BY EARLY EVENING...AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR THE
NORTHEAST OK TAF SITES. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP
AS WELL AREAWIDE LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
MCS ACROSS FAR ERN OK/NW AR CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT IS STILL PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LEFT A
WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
NEAR FSM BACK INTO NE OK...AND WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL PLAY A ROLE IN POTENTIAL
REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NE OK IS QUITE WORKED
OVER/RAIN-COOLED AT THE MOMENT...SO REDEVELOPMENT
REMAINS IN QUESTION...AND HRRR HOLDS OFF STORMS
UNTIL AROUND 00Z FOR NE OK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 72 89 75 89 / 20 10 10 10
FSM 72 92 73 90 / 10 10 10 10
MLC 73 88 75 87 / 10 10 10 10
BVO 69 89 74 90 / 40 10 10 10
FYV 68 86 72 85 / 20 10 10 10
BYV 68 87 71 86 / 20 10 10 10
MKO 72 89 73 88 / 20 10 10 10
MIO 69 88 74 88 / 40 10 10 10
F10 72 88 74 88 / 20 10 10 10
HHW 72 89 72 86 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1046 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
MCS ACROSS FAR ERN OK/NW AR CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT IS STILL PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LEFT A
WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
NEAR FSM BACK INTO NE OK...AND WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL PLAY A ROLE IN POTENTIAL
REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NE OK IS QUITE WORKED
OVER/RAIN-COOLED AT THE MOMENT...SO REDEVELOPMENT
REMAINS IN QUESTION...AND HRRR HOLDS OFF STORMS
UNTIL AROUND 00Z FOR NE OK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 87 72 89 75 / 30 20 10 10
FSM 88 72 92 73 / 60 10 10 10
MLC 87 73 88 75 / 20 10 10 10
BVO 86 69 89 74 / 30 40 10 10
FYV 83 68 86 72 / 70 20 10 10
BYV 84 68 87 71 / 80 20 10 10
MKO 85 72 89 73 / 50 20 10 10
MIO 84 69 88 74 / 30 40 10 10
F10 87 72 88 74 / 20 20 10 10
HHW 87 72 89 72 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
644 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES KBVO/KTUL/
KRVS/KXNA/KFYV BETWEEN 12Z ISSUANCE TIME AND 16Z THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH CU CLOUD...HOWEVER RISK
SCATTERED THUNDER VICINITY NORTHERN SITES KBVO/KTUL/KRVS/KXNA
KFYV LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LINEAR MCS CONTINUES EAST ACROSS KS...WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG
ITS GUST FRONT ON ITS SWRN FLANK DOWN INTO NRN OK. THIS PORTION OF
THE LINE IS MORE PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AND THUS THE
OUTFLOW IS SURGING OUT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE...LIMITING ITS
INTENSITY. NEVERTHELESS...NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS ARE FEEDING INTO THE
SYSTEM AND BEING LIFTED BY THE GUST FRONT...SO IT IS AT LEAST
KEEPING THE STORMS GOING. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR KEEP
THE TAIL END OF THE MCS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE KS BORDER...ALTHOUGH
THE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT HAS SHOWN SO FAR.
THERE IS STILL SOME AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE RISK...ESPECIALLY NW
OF TULSA...HOWEVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
SUB-SEVERE. WHAT IS LEFT OF THIS MCS WILL TRAVEL EAST TOWARD THE
OZARKS THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. A BOUNDARY WILL BE LEFT
FROM THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WHICH WILL PROBABLY RETREAT NORTH
SOME DURING THE DAY AS STRONG SOUTH WINDS PUSH IT IN THAT
DIRECTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON STORM WILL LIKELY BE
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER AS WELL. SOME POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT
STORMS EXISTS NORTH OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP...WHICH MAY END
UP BEING NORTH AND EAST OF THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS.
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND WARMING MID LVL TEMPS WILL BRING
DRY...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IS STILL FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTH OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHILE A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING MORE TSTORM CHANCES
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
RIDGING IS FORECAST BY THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF BY NEXT WEEKEND
SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AT THE TAIL END.
LACY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 88 72 89 75 / 70 20 10 10
FSM 90 72 92 73 / 30 10 10 10
MLC 88 73 88 75 / 20 10 10 10
BVO 87 69 89 74 / 90 40 10 10
FYV 85 68 86 72 / 40 20 10 10
BYV 85 68 87 71 / 60 20 10 10
MKO 88 72 89 73 / 30 20 10 10
MIO 85 69 88 74 / 100 40 10 10
F10 87 72 88 74 / 30 20 10 10
HHW 88 72 89 72 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
328 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
LINEAR MCS CONTINUES EAST ACROSS KS...WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG
ITS GUST FRONT ON ITS SWRN FLANK DOWN INTO NRN OK. THIS PORTION OF
THE LINE IS MORE PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AND THUS THE
OUTFLOW IS SURGING OUT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE...LIMITING ITS
INTENSITY. NEVERTHELESS...NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS ARE FEEDING INTO THE
SYSTEM AND BEING LIFTED BY THE GUST FRONT...SO IT IS AT LEAST
KEEPING THE STORMS GOING. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR KEEP
THE TAIL END OF THE MCS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE KS BORDER...ALTHOUGH
THE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT HAS SHOWN SO FAR.
THERE IS STILL SOME AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE RISK...ESPECIALLY NW
OF TULSA...HOWEVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
SUB-SEVERE. WHAT IS LEFT OF THIS MCS WILL TRAVEL EAST TOWARD THE
OZARKS THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. A BOUNDARY WILL BE LEFT
FROM THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WHICH WILL PROBABLY RETREAT NORTH
SOME DURING THE DAY AS STRONG SOUTH WINDS PUSH IT IN THAT
DIRECTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON STORM WILL LIKELY BE
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER AS WELL. SOME POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT
STORMS EXISTS NORTH OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP...WHICH MAY END
UP BEING NORTH AND EAST OF THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS.
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND WARMING MID LVL TEMPS WILL BRING
DRY...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IS STILL FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTH OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHILE A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING MORE TSTORM CHANCES
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
RIDGING IS FORECAST BY THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF BY NEXT WEEKEND
SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AT THE TAIL END.
LACY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 88 72 89 75 / 40 20 10 10
FSM 90 72 92 73 / 30 10 10 10
MLC 88 73 88 75 / 20 10 10 10
BVO 87 69 89 74 / 50 40 10 10
FYV 85 68 86 72 / 30 20 10 10
BYV 85 68 87 71 / 40 20 10 10
MKO 88 72 89 73 / 30 20 10 10
MIO 85 69 88 74 / 60 40 10 10
F10 87 72 88 74 / 30 20 10 10
HHW 88 72 89 72 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
813 PM PDT MON JUN 16 2014
.UPDATE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL LINGER
WEDNESDAY OVER THE BLUES AND WALLOWA COUNTY. COONFIELD
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 215 PM PDT MON JUN 16 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING PRODUCING SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLD
TSRA. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ANY TSRA SHOULD DISSIPATE AND
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD LESSEN. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVES INTO IDAHO TOMORROW BUT RAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR AREA SO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TWO STATE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE BY THURSDAY
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WA/OR AND OUR AREA SHOULD
EXPERIENCE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE REGION WILL BECOME
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING S-SW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE
PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD TO
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER ELEVATION HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S
BY SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS 55-60F. AT THE SAME TIME THERE WILL BE
A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS SUCH THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY EXTEND NORTHWARD ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. FOR NOW WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
AND KEPT THE LOWER BASINS DRY BECAUSE THE ECMWF MODEL WAS LESS
EMPHATIC ABOUT THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW...KEEPING THE FLOW MORE
WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER/MORE STABLE. 78
AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY....SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. PLAN TO HANDLE THESE WITH VCSH INTO THE EARLY NIGHTTIME
HOURS. STRONGER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE OCNL LTG STRIKES. WEST WINDS
OF 10-25KT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND THEN SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AFTER 15-18Z TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL BE
MOSTLY BKN AT 4-6 THOUSAND FEET AND BKN-OVC AT 8-10 THOUSAND FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 45 62 49 76 / 20 30 20 10
ALW 50 64 53 77 / 20 40 30 10
PSC 52 70 53 82 / 20 30 20 10
YKM 46 71 50 78 / 20 20 10 10
HRI 49 67 50 80 / 20 20 20 10
ELN 47 70 51 75 / 30 20 10 10
RDM 34 61 35 73 / 20 20 10 10
LGD 43 55 45 70 / 30 40 30 20
GCD 39 56 41 73 / 20 20 30 10
DLS 51 70 53 78 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
76/76/76
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1018 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ATOP THE SOUTHEAST REGION
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM EDT MONDAY...LOCAL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO STABILIZE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING THEREFORE...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND TRIM POPS
ACROSS THE NC/SC PIEDMONT WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION ON A
DOWNWARD POP TREND. LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALL BUT CLEARED AS COOLING
EFFECTS FLATTEN LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO ONLY A FEW
SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS. EARLIER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE TO FOG POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
AND DECOUPLES...THUS NO CHANGES MADE REGARDING AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS AND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
LASTLY...ALSO MADE TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
EXTREME NEAR TERM TO REFLECT LATEST SURFACE OBS WHICH WERE IMPACTED
BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW LEADING TO A RATHER SPORADIC TEMPERATURE
FIELD ACROSS THE REGION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 200 PM...WELL AS ADVERTISED BY THE GSO/FFC SNDGS THIS
MORNING...THERE IS NO INHIBITION...AND HENCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHWRS AND TSTMS HAVE BLOSSOMED QUICKLY ACRS THE CWFA...DESPITE LARGE
HIGH PRES SYSTEM ATOP THE REGION. THE LAPS AND RAP BOTH SHOW 2500 TO
OVER 4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. SO I HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FURTHER FROM
PREVIOUS UPDATE...WITH SOLID CHC TO LIKELY POP ACRS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...AND CHC POP OVER PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE PIEDMONT. PWATS
ARE 125-150% OF NORMAL AND STORMS ARE SLOW-MOVERS...SO ISOLD HEAVY
RAIN/FLOOD THREAT LOOKS TO EXIST IN ADDITION TO A SMALL WET
MICROBURST THREAT. LARGE HAIL LOOKS MORE UNLIKELY...BUT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE HIGH SBCAPE.
STORMS SHUD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING SOME LINGER MID
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS INTO THE LATE EVENING. WITH HIGH PRES STILL IN
PLACE...WINDS SHUD BE LIGHT AND ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG...ESP IN
THE MTN VLYS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 60S MTNS AND UPR
60S TO LWR 70S PIEDMONT (ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL).
TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED...WITH MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON 500 MB HIGH AROUND 592 DAM CENTERED JUST TO OUR
WEST. PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AND STRONG INSOLATION SHUD RESULT IN
ANOTHER UNCAPPED...MOD-HIGHLY UNSTABLE DAY. SO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACRS THE AREA...STARTING IN THE MTNS
EARLY AFTN. A SMALL PULSE SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY EXIST
AGAIN...GIVEN SIMILAR PROFILES. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...NO SURPRISES WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE IN THE
SHORT TERM. AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH
EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
THAT MEANS WE CAN EXPECT THE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT COULD BE IN PLAY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS SOME OF THE
MODELS ACTIVATE THE LEE TROUGH. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT THAT COVERAGE
WOULD SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE DUE TO GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE UNDER UPPER HIGH. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN
THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE SCT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND A
COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE ON WED...AND 8-10 DEGEREES ABOVE AVE
ON THU ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...STARTING 00Z FRI...THE 500MB RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE SE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE VORTICITY CENTERS PASSING MOSTLY TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD INDICATE THE NUMBER OF MCS
OR MCC CROSSING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. ONE OF THESE VORT
CENTERS CROSSES THE MID APPALACHIANS SATURDAY...BUT THE ECMWF HAS IT
ARRIVING SATURDAY MORNING AND GFS HAS IT WASHING OUT AS IT ARRIVES
LATE SATURDAY. THIS COULD BOOST THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON SATURDAY...MAINLY FOR THE MTNS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
CROSSING TN AND KY ON MONDAY. MODELS SHOW A CLUSTER OF VORTS OVER
THE LOWER MISS VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK POISED TO MOVE IN OUR
DIRECTION. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT NEXT MONDAY WITH
THE GFS HAVING A SIGNIFICANT 500MB TROUGH DIVING SE OVER MISS VALLEY
AND EC HAVING A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WHOLE NATION. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CONTINUED VERY WARM TEMPS. IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...GFS HAS
GREATEST CAPE VALUES LATE SATURDAY OVER NE GA TO SW NC MTNS WITH
AROUND 2500 AT THAT TIME. SEEMS MORE REASONABLE IN THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME EARLY MORNING MVFR LEVEL FOG...AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON TSRA ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT. INITIALIZED TAF WITH
LIGHT VRB WINDS UNDER FEW LOW VFR CLOUDS AND A BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CIG. MODELS HINT AT PROGRESSION OF A WEAK SEABREEZE FRONT WORKING
INTO THE I85 CORRIDOR NEAR OR AROUND MIDNIGHT...THUS KEPT MENTION OF
FEW LOW VFR CLOUDS. ADDITIONALLY...WITH PERSISTENCE OF THE PATTERN
IN MIND...AND NEARBY CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON...DECIDED TO
ONCE AGAIN INCLUDE 2HR TEMPO FROM 10-12Z FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED
MVFR FOG AT 5SM. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT CALM WINDS WILL INCREASE
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER DAYBREAK BENEATH MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
LASTLY...INCLUDED A BKN LOW VFR CU DECK FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ALONG WITH A PROB30 FOR MVFR TSRA.
ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ASIDE FOR OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING FOG POTENTIAL AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. PREVAILED 4SM MVFR FOG AT KAVL WITH A
TEMPO FOR 1.5SM RESTRICITIONS BY MID MORNING. ALL OTHER SITES
EXCEPT FOR KGSP AND KGMU ALSO HAVE PREVAILING MVFR FOG...WHILE THOSE
SITES ONLY FEATURE TEMPOS. OTHERWISE...AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...EXPECTING WEAK SEABREEZE FRONT TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH NEAR/AROUND MIDNIGHT THUS MENTIONED LOW VFR FEW/SCT
CLOUDS AT ALL SC SITES. EXPECTING LOW VFR CU DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REMAINING
SITES...THUS ALL TAFS FEATURE SUCH WITH A PROB30 FOR AFTERNOON
TSRA. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING YET AGAIN OUT
OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAVL
WHERE CHANNELING WILL KEEP WINDS PREVAILING NORTHERLY.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
MTNS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN TSRA AND ALSO IN
THE MTN VALLEYS EACH MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM OVER
AREAS OF RECENT RAINFALL.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-02Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 91% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 73% HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 91% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 92% HIGH 87% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1106 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING MOVING OUT OF NERN WY INTO SWRN
SD/BLKHLS...AND THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO
PROGRESS EWD ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES THIS EVE SO HAVE UPPER THE POPS
CONSIDERABLE FOR THAT AREA. REST OF FCST MOSTLY UNCHANGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS CLOSED LOW OVER MONTANA WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COMPLEX OF MORNING STORMS HAS
EXITED THE AREA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WHILE ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND
SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND IS MOVING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT THE
MOMENT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TROF HAS SHIFTED INTO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH NORTHERN ROCKIES HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE 60S...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE BREEZY IN SPOTS OUT OF THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST.
TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET IN
MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY COULD LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE CLIPS THE AREA. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE BLACK HILLS.
SUNDAY...ZONAL FLOW/WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FOR A
BRIEF TIME AS CLOSED LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BRISK
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON BACK EDGE OF EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
DIFFERENT SOMEWHAT ON THE EXACT DISPOSITION OF EACH SHORTWAVE...AS
WELL AS ANY 500MB CUTOFF LOWS. BUT THE PATTERN STRONGLY SUGGESTS
ACTIVE WEATHER WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AND AT LEAST A
COUPLE DAYS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL WAVER
SOFTLY ON EITHER SIDE OF SEASONAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
AREA OF SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL MOVE THROUGH SCNTRL SD OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO LINGER OVER THE BLKHLS
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
324 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AN 18Z AIRCRAFT SOUNDING FROM DALLAS LOVE FIELD OBSERVED A
SUBSTANTIAL CAP IN PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS...DESPITE TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S WITH DEW POINTS HOVERING AROUND 70 DEGREES.
OBSERVED SURFACE BASED CAPE WAS JUST OVER 1000 J/KG ON THIS RAOB
AND THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WAS AROUND 150 J/KG. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH VERY LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT. LOOPING THROUGH THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SUBTLE WAVES WERE EVIDENT IN THIS STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD...INDICATIVE OF A STABLE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE CLOUD LEVEL
(LCL). TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT...THINK THAT OBSERVATIONAL
EVIDENCE IS POINTING TO THE DALLAS LOVE FIELD SOUNDING BEING
FAIRLY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AN EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGEST NO
SIGNIFICANT MECHANISMS IN THE CWA TO PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT.
AS A RESULT...THINK THAT THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON ARE VERY SMALL.
19Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED CUMULUS
FIELD DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...IN AN AXIS OF GREATER
INSTABILITY PER LOCALLY CALCULATED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AND SPC`S
SFCOA. WHILE THERE WAS LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED IN
THIS CU FIELD AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION...THE CONGESTED AND
LINEAR APPEARANCE OF THE CLOUDS SUGGESTS A LOCAL DEEPENING OF THE
LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE LINE
LOCATED FROM VERNON SOUTH TO JUST EAST OF SWEETWATER. THE 17Z
HRRR MODEL REALLY PICKS UP ON THIS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE AND
INITIATES POCKETS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS LINE BY 22Z...OR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS PANS OUT...STORMS WILL INITIATE
TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER WINDS ALOFT WOULD TEND TO STEER
THESE STORMS EAST. WINDS ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE FAIRLY
WEAK...SO ANY EASTWARD STORM MOTION WOULD TEND TO BE SLOW...ON THE
ORDER OF 15 MPH OR SO.
EVEN IF STORMS DEVELOP AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS...THERE IS NO
GUARANTEE THAT THEY WILL ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO MOVE EAST INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING. STORM MOTION IS DEPENDENT NOT JUST UPON
STEERING WINDS ALOFT...BUT IS ALSO DEPENDENT UPON THE DIRECTION
THAT NEW UPDRAFTS TEND TO DEVELOP ON. THIS IS REFERRED TO AS
UPDRAFT PROPAGATION...OR SIMPLY PROPAGATION. THE DIRECTION OF NEW
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT IS USUALLY LOCATED ON THE SIDE OF THE STORM
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS POINTING TOWARDS. THAT IS...IF
YOU HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...NEW UPDRAFTS
WILL TEND TO BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN EXISTING STORM. THE LATEST
SPC SFCOA INDICATED 850 MB WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 15
KTS...WHICH SHOULD DIRECT NEW UPDRAFTS...AND THE PROPAGATION OF
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...TO THE SOUTH.
WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS JUST ABOUT EQUAL TO THE
PROJECTED STORM MOTION FROM STEERING WINDS ALONE...STORMS WILL
TEND TO BUILD SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST INSTEAD OF DRIFTING EAST WITH THE
STEERING WINDS ALOFT. BECAUSE OF THIS...THINK THAT THE CHANCES OF
MULTIPLE STORMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING ARE
SMALL. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO MEANDERING OVER
LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE TO MINERAL WELLS TO
GOLDTHWAITE THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STORMS WILL KEEP RUNNING
INTO THE CAP IN PLACE OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IF THEY MOVE
EAST...SO THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE IF THEY EVER
MANAGE TO MOVE OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST. STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE THE ONLY EXPECTED HAZARDS
FROM STORMS THIS EVENING.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...EXTENDING OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY
TOMORROW MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...LEAVING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WHILE NOT OVERLY
STRONG...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT LARGE SCALE FEATURE
OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE CWA. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
SEND THE GULF COAST SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SUNSET. LEFT LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE AN UPPER LOW MOVING
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO OUT OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE NAM IS ON BOARD WITH THIS SOLUTION WITH
THE CANADIAN AND GFS HARDLY SHOWING ANY DISTURBANCE ALOFT AT ALL.
CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION AT THIS TIME AS THIS
HAS BEEN THE CONSISTENT SOLUTION FOR THE PAST 3-4 DAYS WHILE THE
GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE BEEN WAFFLING ON THE EXISTENCE OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CONSISTENCY DOES NOT EQUAL ACCURACY...BUT WHEN
DEALING WITH FORECAST MODELS AND DIFFERENCES IN DATA ASSIMILATION
AND MODEL INITIALIZATION...CONSISTENCY IS OFTEN A GOOD SIGN THAT A
MODEL HAS LOCKED ONTO SOMETHING OTHER MODELS ARE MISSING.
DID NOT RAISE POPS ABOVE 20 PERCENT AT THIS TIME AS IT WOULD BE
NICE TO SEE OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW BEFORE
FINALIZING ON ONE SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER. THE ECMWF HAS AN
OBVIOUS TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY MORNING...SO WE
SHOULD KNOW ONE WAY OR THE OTHER BY THEN HOW THIS IS GOING TO PLAY
OUT. AT ANY RATE...ASSUMING THIS UPPER LOW MOVES OVER NORTH
TEXAS...CONTINUE TO EXPECT ONLY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AS PARAMETERS
ARE POOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. KEPT HIGHS ON THE LOWER
SPECTRUM OF GUIDANCE EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS KICKING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS ACTION MAY SEND A
SQUALL LINE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO SEND A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER SQUALL LINE THAT MAY
MAKE A DIVE TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LEFT SOME LOW POPS IN OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THESE PERIODS AS A RESULT.
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SQUALL LINE
BEHAVIOR UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEXT WEEKEND...MOST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT WE WILL BE
BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NEXT WEEKEND...SO
KEPT A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS HINTING AT A
WEAK...PROBABLY CONVECTIVELY GENERATED...MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM GETTING STUCK IN THE RIDGE ALOFT AND DRIFTING AROUND OVER
NORTH TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND BRINGS A WEAK
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS BEFORE MOVING
IT NORTHEAST OVER EAST TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN EITHER
OF THESE VERY SMALL SCALE FEATURES 6-7 DAYS OUT IS LOW. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...SO DECIDED TO STICK WITH THIS DRY FORECAST AND SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME. WILL HOLD OFF ON JUMPING ON SMALL PROBABILITY
ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS UNLESS MODELS CONVERGE AND AGREE ON ONE OF
THEM IN PARTICULAR IN LATER FORECASTS.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1217 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014/
THE TAFS DURING THIS FORECAST WILL SIMILAR TO THE PAST
SEVERAL ISSUANCES. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
WINDS 15-23 KTS DURING THE DAY AND AROUND 13 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SURGE OF NOCTURNAL MVFR STRATUS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION 07-10Z AND SHOULD LAST UNTIL LATE MORNING. NO
CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LOCALLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST...BUT THERE COULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER WEST TEXAS AND A SEVERE POTENTIAL
ALONG A LINE FROM KTUL-KSTL-KORD. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 76 92 76 90 76 / 5 0 0 10 10
WACO, TX 75 90 74 89 74 / 5 5 0 10 10
PARIS, TX 74 88 73 88 73 / 5 0 0 5 10
DENTON, TX 75 90 74 90 75 / 5 0 0 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 75 90 76 90 75 / 5 0 0 5 10
DALLAS, TX 75 90 75 90 76 / 5 0 0 10 10
TERRELL, TX 77 92 78 91 76 / 5 0 0 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 75 88 75 88 75 / 5 5 0 20 10
TEMPLE, TX 75 89 75 89 75 / 5 5 0 20 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 73 91 72 90 73 / 10 0 0 5 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
230 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING...AND WILL START TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AS A
DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TODAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON
TONIGHT...DEVELOPING INTO AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON MONDAY FOR MORE SHOWERS OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA...AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE LOW WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AFFECTING SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON AGAIN. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHT WARMING AS HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH WASHINGTON AND OREGON EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY MID AND UPPER CLOUDS WITH NOT A LOT SHOWING UP
ON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR YET. HOWEVER...AS THE
PARENT UPPER TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE B.C. AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIG SOUTH TODAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SAY ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH AND
GIVE A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE MODEST...A
TENTH OF AN INCH AT THE MOST...WITH THE COAST AND NORTHERN ZONES
FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD MOST AT RISK. CANNOT RULE OUT EUGENE
THOUGH EITHER. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME ECHOES APPROACH THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE LANGLEY HILL WASHINGTON COASTAL RADAR THAT
SUPPORT THIS IDEA. SO LOOK FOR CLOUDY SKIES...CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...AND A FEW SHOWERS TODAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH TONIGHT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...AND THE MODELS PAINT SOME MORE LIGHT QPF IN THE RESULTANT
ONSHORE FLOW...FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THEN ON MONDAY...WE
SEE AN UPPER LOW FORM OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTHEAST OREGON THAT WILL BRING EVEN MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE
WETTEST AND COOLEST PERIOD OF THIS EPISODE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER AS WELL MONDAY AS THE COLD POOL IS NEARBY AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION...SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE LOWERING IN THE CASCADES...AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ABOVE THE PASSES...AND ESPECIALLY
AFFECTING CLIMBING ON AREA MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
THE UPPER LOW LINGERS EAST OF THE CASCADES ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
SHOWERS CONTINUING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
FOR ONE MORE FAIRLY CLOUDY AND COOL DAY. TOLLESON
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES FARTHER EAST WITH SHOWERS ENDING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST
IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE THURSDAY AND MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY FOR SOME MORE SHOWERS. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BREAK
IN THE WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM COMES IN NEXT WEEK.
TOLLESON
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS PRIMARILY AROUND 5K FT
UNDER MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AROUND 3KT FT AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TODAY AS THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THIS MORNING. THE MAIN THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTH COAST. THE WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING...BUT THE INLAND TAF SITES MAY BE A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
CIGS FROM ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z SUN WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...CURRENT VFR CIGS AT 5K FT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
TO MVFR CIGS AROUND 2K-3K FT BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z SUN. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MIGHT MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS EVENING. /27
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE TODAY AND THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW MODERATE W-NW SWELLS PASSING THROUGH THE
WATERS. VARYING DEGREES OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...MOSTLY 15 KT OR
LESS...EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE FULL MOON IS GENERATING STRONG TIDAL FLUCTUATIONS...RESULTING IN
VERY STRONG FLOOD AND EBB CURRENTS. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS ON THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR WILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THE VERY STRONG MORNING
EBBS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALSO OF NOTE ARE THE SIGNIFICANT MINUS
TIDES EXPECTED AFTER THE EBBS ON THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS. PYLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM
TO 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1035 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will impact the region
every afternoon and evening through Tuesday with temperatures
remaining on the cool side. Temperatures will then warm for the
rest of the week, with just a few mountain showers late in the
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: Satellite imagery shows an upper level front over NW
Washington dropping southeast. This will result in plenty of mid
and high level clouds over the Inland Northwest tonight. In
addition, large scale lift will be on the increase near the
Canadian border. This combined with weak-moderate mid level
instability with 700-500mb Theta-e lapse rates between 0-1C/km
should keep showers going through the night over the northern
mountains. The 00z GFS, NAM, and HRRR are in general agreement
with this idea. Areas near the Canadian Border will be most
favored such as Curlew, Metaline Falls, Northport, and Bonners
Ferry. Radar as of 830 pm was already showing signs of this with
increasing returns around Oroville and Chesaw despite the setting
sun when showers typically fizzle out. The forecast has been
updated to increase precipitation chances overnight for the
northern mountains...and adjust sky cover upward a bit over most
of Central and Eastern Washington. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
06z TAFS: The next system will spread into the area on Sunday.
Increased lift and instability ahead of this system near the
Canadian border will result in showers north of the KGEG-KCOE
corridor tonight. Afternoon heating will generate another round
of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday mainly over the
mountains...especially north of the Columbia Basin. CIGS over the
eastern TAF sites have risen to VFR with models showing VFR
conditions likely persisting through 06z Monday. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 47 66 45 65 45 66 / 10 30 20 20 20 40
Coeur d`Alene 47 65 45 64 43 65 / 20 40 30 40 30 50
Pullman 44 64 42 62 41 64 / 10 30 20 20 20 30
Lewiston 51 72 51 69 49 71 / 0 20 20 20 20 30
Colville 50 65 46 63 44 70 / 40 50 40 50 50 30
Sandpoint 47 64 47 62 42 63 / 30 50 40 50 50 50
Kellogg 45 62 45 61 42 63 / 30 50 50 50 40 60
Moses Lake 53 73 49 73 50 75 / 0 10 10 40 30 10
Wenatchee 55 69 51 71 53 74 / 10 10 10 20 20 10
Omak 50 69 48 70 48 75 / 20 30 30 40 30 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
THE FIRST ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION TURNED OUT TO BE A VERY NARROW
LINE OF NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT REMAINED NORTH OF I-94 BETWEEN
1 AND 3 PM. THERE WAS VERY LITTLE CAPE AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE HRRR MODEL STILL INSISTS
THAT THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT WHERE THE WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST THAT WAS IN
SOUTHWEST WI AT 3 PM. THE RADAR IS SHOWING THAT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
NOW AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE...AS THE QUESTION IS
WHETHER IT WILL HAVE THUNDER OR NOT. THE CAPE IS STILL LOW AND THE
BULK SHEAR IS EVEN LOWER THAN IT WAS WITH THE FIRST ROUND. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIM POPS AND JUST KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.
THE 850MB COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN WI THIS EVENING WITH
DRY MID LEVEL AIR BEHIND IT WILL STALL OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT...THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
WI LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A DRY AND COMFORTABLE NIGHT AND
A PLEASANT MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE
DUE TO A LAKE BREEZE. THE HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S BEGIN TO SNEAK IN.
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES LINGERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THIS PERIOD. STILL EXPECT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SLIPPING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
TONIGHT TO MARCH BACK NORTHWARD LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
SCENARIO RESULTS FROM INCREASING SOUTHWEST STEERING WINDS ALOFT OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST DUE TO AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE WEEK. ONCE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE SRN WI
REGION...IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ONCE AGAIN DUE TO DOWNSTREAM W-NW
FLOW OVER NORTHEAST CONUS. HENCE SETUP WILL EXIST FOR POTENTIAL
REPEATED BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SRN WI AND ADJOINING
REGIONS. FIRST PERIOD OF CONCERN IS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WHEN SFC AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT SHIFTS NWD. STRONG RETURN OF THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE SURGE WILL RESULT IN LARGE ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES OF UP TO 2500 J/KG MON NIGHT WITH 35KTS SHEAR. AS A
RESULT...MAY BE SOME HAIL PRODUCERS. POTENTIAL MCS SHOULD MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST LATER MON NGT INTO EARLY TUE AS LOW TO MID LEVELS WARM
ON TUESDAY. HENCE CAPPING INVERSION AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
FORCING SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT NEED TO KEEP IN
SMALLER CHANCES DUE TO NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MORNING CONVECTION
MAY VERY WELL PUSH FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN IL.
RESURGENCE OF LOW LEVEL JET TUE NIGHT WL LIKELY SHIFT BOUNDARY BACK
INTO SOUTHERN WI ON WEDNESDAY. HENCE WL CONTINUE MID-HIGH LEVEL
CHANCE POPS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID INLAND AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH WITH HEAT
INDEX READINGS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S IN SOME AREAS.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY - FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON FRONTAL POSITION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATEST GFS HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF
ON OCCASIONAL LOCAL CONVECTION SUPPRESSING NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF
WARM FRONT AND SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF SRN WI/NRN IL WED NGT
INTO THU. LATEST GEM STILL CARRIES FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN
WI ON WED BUT ALSO SUPPRESSES IT SWD WITH NIGHTTIME CONVECTION.
HENCE EXPECT WAVERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE IN THE VICINITY INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE IT SHIFTS EWD WITH PASSING WEAK LOW PRESSURE. WILL
FOLLOW MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF FOR THE LATER PERIODS WHICH CARRIES
REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS WI FRI INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT SOLUTION OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
00Z GFS HAD BEEN SHOWING CUT-OFF UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER NRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LESS OF A PUSH FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN
PACIFIC TROF. EVEN DGEX NUDGES UPPER LOW INTO SRN CANADA EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND. HENCE A BETTER SHOT AT MORE PERSISTENT...DRY
CONDITIONS MAY RETURN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING
WEEK.
OTHERWISE...GFS PWAT VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH UNTIL THEN WITH VALUES
OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES WHICH IS APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS AT KGRB. HENCE FLOODING RAINS WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER AFTER TUE NGT...LOW LEVEL JET AXIS IS
AIMED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM WED THROUGH THU WITH WEAKER JET
AXIS PIVOTING TOWARD WI THU NGT AND FRI. HENCE REPEATED BOUTS OF
NIGHT TIME HEAVY RAINFALL NOT LOOKING LIKELY AT THIS POINT DURING
THIS PERIOD...AFTER TUE NIGHT POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
THE POSSIBILITY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
WILL END BY 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO ROLL THROUGH SOUTHEAST MN INTO
WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING. WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
TONIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AS A MOIST AIRMASS FLOWS OVER
THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&
.BEACHES...
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND RESULTANT HIGH WAVES WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUED HIGH SWIM RISK ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES THROUGH
THE EVENING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-060-066-071-072.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MRC
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1144 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.UPDATE...
SOUTH WINDS ARE STEADILY INCREASING AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MIXES
OUT. SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN WHAT
MODELS WERE SHOWING IN THE FORECAST YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL BE JUST A
LITTLE LOWER IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES DUE TO THE ADDED STABILITY
FROM THE COOL LAKE AND ALSO THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MN WILL
SWING A WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SHORTLY AFTER THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE SHORTWAVE AROUND NOON OR 1 PM JUST
WEST OF MADISON AND TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH AROUND 3 PM. MORE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI FROM AROUND 2 PM WEST OF MADISON THROUGH 6 PM
AROUND MILWAUKEE. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL
OCCUR IN ONE BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TRACKING
STEADILY ACROSS THE MKX AREA FROM NOON TO 5 PM WITH VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT.
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVED BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM THIS MORNING...
INDICATED BY INCREASING LOWER CLOUDS AND A PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN WI IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WE ARE STILL WAITING FOR THE
SURFACE MOISTURE TO ARRIVE. RIGHT NOW...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S...BUT UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ARE JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST
IN EASTERN IA AND WESTERN IL. THEY WILL BE CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN WI
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MAX DEWPOINTS SHOULD END UP IN THE MID 60S
WITH A POCKET OF UPPER 60S POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. THE
CLOUDS ARE HINDERING THE DESTABILIZATION A LITTLE THIS MORNING.
THE RAP IS UNDERDOING THE DEWPOINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON /UPPER 50S/
WHILE THE NAM AND GFS MAY BE OVERDOING THEM A LITTLE /UPPER 60S/. IN
ADDITION...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WHICH IS
ALSO KEEPING THE CAPE DOWN. THEREFORE...WITH LOWER CAPE THAN THE NAM
800-1000 J/KG... HAIL WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. STILL... THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KNOTS...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING WARRANTS THE SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH THE ONGOING STRONG WINDS...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ADDED WIND GUSTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD MEET
SEVERE CRITERIA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A VERY SLIGHT TORNADO RISK AS
WELL GIVEN THE VEERING OF WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES...THEN EXPECT A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG A COLD FRONT TO CROSS
FROM WEST TO EAST. CURRENT TIMING LOOKS TO BRING STORMS TO KMSN
AROUND 18Z...KUES AT 19Z AND KMKE AND KENW AROUND 20Z. STORMS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY 00Z MONDAY. SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE PRODUCING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WAVES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME COULD BE SEVERE.
&&
.BEACHES...
HIGH WINDS AND WAVES FAVOR A HIGH SWIM RISK ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THIS
EVENING...AS A 90 KNOT 250 MB JET MAX LIFTS ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND TO NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES TODAY IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER THE STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE
WELL NORTH.
WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMES MODERATE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY EVENING.
A 45 KNOT 700 MB SPEED MAX EXTENDS FROM IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY SUNRISE AND INCREASES TO 50 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND 65 KNOTS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHEAST AND WEAKENING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL
JET AT 850 MB IS SIMILAR...WITH 50 KNOTS REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER JUST AFTER SUNRISE WITH 45 TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BY NOON.
850/700 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MODERATE TO STRONG THIS MORNING
BRINGING 15 DEGREE CELSIUS DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAINS WARM THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME SLIGHT COOLING WEST. ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE RAISES
TO 1000 JOULES/KG BY NOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE IS A LITTLE LESS FAR
NORTH. HOWEVER THE ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGER NORTH WITH VALUES
AROUND 50 KNOTS. THE SHEAR VALUES DIMINISH SOUTH CENTRAL DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND OVER THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MESO MODELS ARE KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN
BRINGING A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE
MORNING SOUTH CENTRAL AND AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD
WITH A TORNADO THREAT THIS AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH ZERO TO 1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AROUND 250 AND
ZERO TO 2 KM VALUES AROUND 300 AT FOND DU LAC.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ARE RATHER LOW AND WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE BRISK SOUTH WINDS.
MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WARM AND QUIET DAY SHAPING UP WITH LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL RIDGING. SOUTHERLY FLOW GETS GOING WITH 925
TEMPS INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE POSITIONED WELL WEST WITH A RELATIVE MIN IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PER 850 ISODROSOTHERM PROGS. SE COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORE
AREAS COOLER.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
EAST. 850 MILLIBAR JET LEANS TOWARDS SRN WI AS MON NGT ROLLS ALONG.
MAIN SURFACE/850 LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE ALL
IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THAT COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL AFFECT SRN WI
LATER MON NGT THRU TUE MRNG. IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
VALUES 7.5-8.5 C/KM. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS AIRMASS
WILL LIKELY BE WORKED OVER A BIT FROM MRNG CONVECTION...SO EVENTUAL
HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON CLEARING OF STORMS AND WHERE ANY BOUNDARIES LAY
OUT. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THE CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS...HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL BE EASY TO REACH WITH ANY CLEARING AT
ALL. CONCERNED THAT WE COULD END UP WITH MORE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON
THAN WHAT THE QPF PROGS ARE INDICATING. SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING 1500-2000
J/KG. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE A STRENGTHENING 850 MILLIBAR JET CORE
INTO THE CWA. THE ECMWF HAS THIS DISPLACED FURTHER SOUTHWEST. WILL
MAINTAIN CHC OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY
LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION/MORNING
CONVECTION. THE NAM AND ECMWF SUGGEST PRIMARY BOUNDARY HUNG UP
ACROSS SRN WI WHILE THE GEM AND GFS SHOW IT FURTHER NORTH. IN FACT
THE GFS HAS 13-14C 700 MILLIBAR TEMPS TUE AFTN SUGGESTING A
POTENTIAL CAP TAKING HOLD. A RELATIVE MIN IN THE CWASP VALUES IS
NOTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOW LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PLACEMENT THE KEY. GFS HAS IT SKEWED FURTHER NORTH
INTO NRN WI WHILE ECMWF HAS IT SLIPPING SOUTH OF OUR AREA. STRONGER
UPPER SUPPORT A BIT FURTHER WEST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER 500
MILLIBAR ENERGY. NO REASON TO CHANGE THE ALLBLEND POPS GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS 500 MILLIBAR DRAWS CLOSER AND SURFACE
LOW APPROACHES. STILL SOME TIMING AND ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT OVERALL MORE STORM CHANCES THIS PERIOD.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR CLOSED LOW PROGGD TO PLOD ACROSS WI. AGAIN...TIMING
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BUT WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW.
CWASP VALUES STILL AT 60 TO 70.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES INTO
MIDDAY SUNDAY...THEN EXPECT A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS ALONG A COLD FRONT TO CROSS FROM WEST TO EAST. CURRENT
TIMING LOOKS TO BRING STORMS TO KMSN AROUND 16Z...KUES AT 18Z AND
KMKE AND KENW AROUND 20Z. STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OUT OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN BY 01Z MONDAY. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TIL 15Z. THEN ENOUGH MIXING WILL RESULT IN
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS.
MARINE...INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD TO BUILDING WAVES WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME COULD BE
SEVERE.
BEACHES...INCREASING WAVES AND WINDS WILL FAVOR A MODERATE TO HIGH
SWIM RISK ALONG SOME OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-
060-066-071-072.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1145 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS EVENING HAS BEEN ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS A
POTENT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH IN
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES INTO A DRY/STABLE AIR MASS IN WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS RAIN APPEARS TO BE TIED TO THE REMNANTS OF AN MCV
THAT MOVED THROUGH FROM IOWA TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLIER TODAY.
PART OF IT WAS ABLE TO RIDE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET...BUT CONTINUES TO FADE AS IT RUNS AWAY FROM THE DEEPER
FORCING/INSTABILITY WHICH IS WELL OUT TO THE WEST IN THE VICINITY
OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH IN WESTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/RECENT MODEL TRENDS...IT APPEARS THAT THERE
WILL BE A DRY PERIOD LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION FORMING IN THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. THE
LLJ IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SO WILL BE
WATCHING THAT AREA TONIGHT FOR ANY POTENTIAL STRONG STORMS.
THE NEXT WIDESPREAD ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE AS THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. THE HRRR HAS BEEN TRENDING DRY ALONG THIS FRONT
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT MOST OTHER GUIDANCE HAS AT LEAST SOME SORT
OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG IT. THE 15.00Z RAP HAS THE FRONT
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN BY 18Z WITH THE MAIN BELT OF MLCAPE COMING
IN AHEAD OF IT IN A ZONE WHERE LOW/MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR APPEARS TO
BE AT A MINIMUM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. A WEAK WARM FRONT ARCS
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE KANSAS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
MAIN AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA SO FAR TODAY BUT HAS BEEN SLOWLY ADVANCING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT
HAS BEEN SLOWED BY THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS THAT KEEP FEEDING THIS DRY AIR INTO THE LEADING EDGE.
THE 14.12Z HI-RES ARW AND 14.16Z HRRR ARE BOTH IN AGREEMENT IN
HOLDING THIS ACTIVITY TOGETHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT LIFTING
IT NORTHEAST IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH THIS TREND IN
MIND...WILL SO A SLOW BUT GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY LATE EVENING WILL HAVE 60 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3RD OF THE AREA WHILE REMAINING DRY
ACROSS THE EAST.
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
WYOMING AND COLORADO WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES WHILE TAKING ON MORE OF NEGATIVE
TILT. BOTH THE 14.12Z NAM AND GFS SHOW THE BEST PV ADVECTION IN
THE 500-300 MB LAYER STAYING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BUT SHOULD
STILL HAVE A PERIOD OF WEAK PV ADVECTION COME ACROSS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BECOME VERY STRONG
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW CREATING STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO WESTERN IOWA WHERE AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING. THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT THEN SHIFTS NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE NOSE OF THIS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTIONS AROUND 09Z OR SO AND BY 12Z THIS AXIS OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE AREA. EXPECTING TO SEE THE SEVERE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TRANSLATE
NORTHEAST WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BY THE TIME THE STORMS
ARRIVE IN THE AREA...THEY SHOULD BE ELEVATED AND WILL STILL HAVE
UP TO 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE 1KM TO WORK WITH. DESPITE
THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...THE SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK THAT GREAT IN THE
ELEVATED LAYER WITH ONLY AROUND 20 KNOTS SHOWN. THE BETTER SHEAR
LAGS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA UNDER THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE INCOMING JET CORE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO...BUT WITH THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
STORMS...NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT TO OCCUR TO
TONIGHT.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND THE NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ALL THE 14.12Z
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY 18Z SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT ABOUT TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE FRONT A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...SOME POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE OVER THE
EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ML CAPES SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET TO AROUND
1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AROUND 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR.
THE OTHER THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS SHOULD INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES
WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 3.5 KM. THIS SHOULD MAKE THE
CONVECTION EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
POSSIBLE. BELIEVE THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH AND NOT
TRAINING THAT FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE ISSUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS TEMPORARILY BUILD OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
RELOADING WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL STILL BE BACK OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET EJECTED OUT OF THIS
AND COME ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THE BEST PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHWEST BUT
AT THE LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT THAT GOES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
START TO COME BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS SHOULD WORK BACK
INTO CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND THEN TO ABOUT THE
IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG AND GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT. BETTER CAPE MAY IN PLACE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG
OF ML CAPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. 0-6 KM SHEAR LOOKS PRETTY
DECENT AS WELL WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS.
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME A THREAT AS
WELL. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 4 KM AND COULD
TRAIN WEST TO EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS AND THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY HINGE ON HOW
MUCH RAIN FALLS TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
THE COMPLEX THAT FORMS MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE VERY FAR TO THE
SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE WESTERN LONG WAVE
TROUGH. AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COME OUT OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH...SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
14.12Z ECMWF THEN SUGGESTS THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL START TO LIFT OUT
WHILE THE GFS CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
KEEPING SOME RAIN OVER THE REGION. THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT
SUGGESTS THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION AND A
FLASH FLOODING THREAT. WILL MAINTAIN 40 TO 60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
AS LONG AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN
DOWN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. RST WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF SEEING THE
STORMS GET INTO THEM WITH LSE MORE BORDERLINE. WITH CONFIDENCE
HIGHER THAT THEY WILL GET INTO RST...WILL KEEP THE TEMPO GROUP
GOING FOR IFR VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE MORNING BUT THEN SKIES SHOULD CLEAR UP
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING OVER TOP A BROAD EXPANSE OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
LOWER MS / TN VALLEYS. THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW CIRCULATES AROUND A
WELL DEFINED CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BEFORE RIDING UP INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. IMPULSES
EJECTING OUT FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WITHIN THIS FLOW HAVE BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY THIS PAST EVENING AND CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING.
CLOSER TO HOME WE FIND OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDING BETWEEN THE UPPER
RIDGE DESCRIBED ABOVE TO OUR NORTHWEST...AND A WEAK LOW (ALMOST TUTT
FEATURE) RETROGRADING TOWARD THE REGION FROM OFF THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR
(MAINLY ABOVE 15KFT) OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST THAT IS SHOWN BY
MODEL CONSENSUS TO PIVOT DOWN OVER THE REGION TODAY WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST
RIDGES BACK TO THE WEST WITH AN AXIS TO THE NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING A SYNOPTIC EAST TO ESE FLOW ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA. REGIONAL RADARS ARE NOW GENERALLY QUIET.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE
SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN FOR LATER TODAY. WE HAVE A
BIT OF A DILEMMA HERE...AS THE LOW LEVEL 1000-700MB FLOW IS FAVORED
FOR FOCUS/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE...AND HENCE
BOTH ENHANCED SPATIAL AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG
THE I-75 CORRIDOR. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVING
ALOFT IS NOT OVERLY CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION. THIS AIRMASS
IS NOT COMPLETELY HOSTILE TO DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COLUMNS...BUT AT
THE SAME TIME WILL NOT GIVE THEM ANY HELP. SO...THE QUESTION
IS...WHICH FACTOR WINS OUT...AND BY HOW MUCH? HERE IS HOW THIS
FORECASTER SEES IT...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESIDE WITHIN A DEEP LAYER NORTHEAST FLOW
PATTERN ABOVE THE SURFACE BETWEEN A UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH/NW...AND A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW/TUTT FEATURE TO OUR EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A SWATH OF DRIER AIR ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND DOWN WITHIN THE NE FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. THE BOTTOM LAYER OF THIS SURGE (700-600MB) OF DRIER AIR
CONTAINS THETAE VALUES BETWEEN 316-320K THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST
VALUES ARE UP OVER THE NATURE COAST WITH THE HIGHEST ("MOST"
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION) DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS. THESE VALUES ARE
CERTAINLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AND WOULD LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE UNDER A NON-EASTERLY
FLOW REGIME. IN THIS CASE HOWEVER...WHILE DO THINK THE OVERALL
COVERAGE WILL BE HELD DOWN...THE DEGREE OF FORECAST CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COASTALLY PINNED SEA-BREEZE SHOWN BY MOST RELIABLE
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME SOME OF THE NEGATIVE
EFFECTS ALOFT.
THEREFORE WILL SHOW A RAIN CHANCE FORECAST RANGING FROM 30% FOR THE
NORTHERN NATURE COAST...DOWN TO 40-50% THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY
VICINITY...AND THEN 55-65% FURTHER SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO
TAPER OFF TOWARD 30% FURTHER INLAND (EASTERN POLK/HIGHLANDS
COUNTIES) FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR...AWAY FROM THE BEST LOW LEVEL
FOCUS. NOW FOR TIMING. THIS PATTERN FROM A CLIMO STAND POINT SUGGEST
GENERAL STORM INITIATION BEGINS FIRST DURING THE EARLY/MIDDLE
AFTERNOON DOWN TOWARD SOUTHERN/SW FLORIDA...WHERE THE PENINSULA IS
THINNEST AND THE INTERACTION OF THE TWO SEA-BREEZES WILL OCCUR
FIRST. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL THEN MIGRATE NORTHWARD...WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY VICINITY AND NORTHWARD
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. DO FEEL WE HAVE A
LOCALLY MARGINAL SEVERE WIND THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THETAE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NEAR SURFACE
LAYER AND THOSE MINIMUM 316-320K VALUE ALOFT LIE IN THE RANGE OF
19-22K BASED ON THE GFS. DIFFERENCE VALUES AROUND AND OVER 20K HAVE
BEEN FOUND TO BE FAVORED FOR THE GENERATION OF WET MICROBURSTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS DUE TO ENTRAINMENT OF
DRIER AIR INTO THE CONVECTIVE COLUMN WHICH CAN CAUSE RAPID STORM
COLLAPSE THROUGH EVAPORATIVE PROCESSES AND UPDRAFT WEAKENING.
STORM MOTION WILL BE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD OR WSW TOWARD...AND OFF
THE COAST. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN "WEATHER AWARE" LATE TODAY...AND
KEEP AN EYE TOWARD THE EASTERN SKY FOR DEVELOPING STORMS. THIS
FORECAST PATTERN HAS PROVEN DANGEROUS IN THE PAST AS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM QUICKLY MIGRATE OFFSHORE AND CUT OFF ESCAPE ROUTES BACK
TO SHORE.
OVERNIGHT...ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER OUR LAND ZONES BY
LATE EVENING AND RESULT IN A GENERALLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE NIGHT.
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT CONVECTION LINGER OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT THE SYNOPTIC EASTERLY FLOW WILL TAKE OVER QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET AND KEEP THIS ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE COAST. ENJOY YOUR
TUESDAY AND LOOK OUT FOR THOSE LATE DAY STORMS.
&&
.MID TERM (WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY)...
FOR WED AN UPPER RIDGE RESIDES ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SE U.S.
WHILE AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES WEST ACROSS FL. ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG AND NORTH OF LATITUDE 30 REACHES WEST ALONG THE
GULF COAST. DEEP MOISTURE WITH MODEL PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.8-2.0 INCH
RANGE...COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH (AROUND -9 AT 500
MB)...AND EAST TO ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW (RELAXED ENOUGH TO ALLOW AN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE) WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WITH
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH
WILL HAVE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE.
BY THU THE UPPER TROUGH HAS SLID OUT OVER THE EAST GULF...WITH SOME
SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT ALTHOUGH PWAT VALUES REMAIN SIMILAR TO WED. THE
SURFACE RIDGE SAGS TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF LATITUDE 30 WITH A MORE SE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BUT AGAIN ALLOWING A SEA BREEZE TO SET UP. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL AGAIN FORM WITH THE HIGHER ODDS IN THE
SOUTH.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH LINGERS JUST WEST OF THE AREA FRI THEN WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS WEST AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST SAT-MON. THE SURFACE
RIDGES CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH...REACHING THE STRAITS
BETWEEN THE KEYS AND CUBA BY LATE MON.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE WEAK WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC
SUPPRESSION ALTHOUGH IT MAY PROVIDE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
MAX TEMPERATURES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE MOIST WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AS IT
BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND WESTERLY (AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH)
WITH THE BEST STORM COVERAGE IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOONS AND
INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. IT IS
THE WARM SEASON...SO A SCATTERING OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STORMS WILL LIKELY
INITIATE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON DOWN TOWARD KFMY/KRSW AND THEN DEVELOP
NORTHWARD THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE OFFSHORE AFTER 01-02Z.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN IN POSITION TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS POSITION
WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON AND TURN WINDS LOCALLY ONSHORE...HOWEVER THE ONSHORE FLOW
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY STRONG. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ALLOWING
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG THE COAST
BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD
TOWARD...AND OFF THE COAST. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN "WEATHER AWARE"
LATE TODAY...AND KEEP AN EYE TOWARD THE EASTERN SKY FOR DEVELOPING
STORMS. THIS FORECAST PATTERN HAS PROVEN DANGEROUS IN THE PAST AS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM QUICKLY MIGRATE OFFSHORE AND CUT OFF ESCAPE
ROUTES BACK TO SHORE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CANCERS ARE ANTICIPATED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS WHILE DISPERSION INDICES REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
ALSO...NO SIGNIFICANT OCCURRENCES OF FOG ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 90 73 86 75 / 50 30 40 20
FMY 91 72 87 73 / 60 20 50 20
GIF 91 71 85 72 / 30 10 50 30
SRQ 90 71 87 74 / 50 40 40 20
BKV 92 67 86 70 / 40 20 40 20
SPG 91 76 85 77 / 50 40 40 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
516 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS NOCTURNAL COOLING MAY SUPPORT FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT LESS FOG THAN YESTERDAY MORNING BECAUSE THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY SO THERE SHOULD BE LESS NET RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE SREF GUIDANCE FOG PROBABILITIES ARE VERY LOW. WE HAVE
JUST INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH WELL INLAND AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH SHOULD ALSO EXTEND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES
PLUS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUGHT IN THE RIDGE ALONG
WITH STRONG HEATING COULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...EXPECT
LITTLE COVERAGE BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPPER
RIDGING. THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVE POPS OF 10 PERCENT OR LESS. THE
SPC WRF DISPLAYS JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE NEAR THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. THE 06Z HRRR DISPLAYS SCATTERED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY IN THE WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY ALONG THE LEE-
SIDE TROUGH. WE FORECASTED POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT...A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE GFS AND NAM MOS.
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING PLUS WET-
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 10300 FEET SUPPORTS POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND
AND HAIL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE WARMER MET MOS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN VERIFYING BETTER RECENTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. STRONG
HEATING MAY HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT LITTLE COVERAGE
BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AND THE UPPER RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE POPS 10 PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE BUT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL BECAUSE OF THE RECENT COOL BIAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINNING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS A POP AROUND 10 PERCENT
THURSDAY...AND 30 PERCENT DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE A POP AROUND 10 PERCENT
THURSDAY...AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
MOST OF MOS HAS TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY DURING THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE
MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS BY LATE MORNING.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
509 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUS NOCTURNAL COOLING MAY SUPPORT FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT LESS FOG THAN YESTERDAY MORNING BECAUSE THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY SO THERE SHOULD BE LESS NET RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE SREF GUIDANCE FOG PROBABILITIES ARE VERY LOW. WE HAVE
JUST INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH WELL INLAND AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH SHOULD ALSO EXTEND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES
PLUS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUGHT IN THE RIDGE ALONG
WITH STRONG HEATING COULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...EXPECT
LITTLE COVERAGE BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPPER
RIDGING. THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVE POPS OF 10 PERCENT OR LESS. THE
SPC WRF DISPLAYS JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE NEAR THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. THE 06Z HRRR DISPLAYS SCATTERED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY IN THE WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY ALONG THE LEE-
SIDE TROUGH. WE FORECASTED POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT...A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE GFS AND NAM MOS.
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING PLUS WET-
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 10300 FEET SUPPORTS POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND
AND HAIL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE WARMER MET MOS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN VERIFYING BETTER RECENTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. STRONG
HEATING MAY HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT LITTLE COVERAGE
BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AND THE UPPER RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE POPS 10 PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE BUT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL BECAUSE OF THE RECENT COOL BIAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINNING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS A POP AROUND 10 PERCENT
THURSDAY...AND 30 PERCENT DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE A POP AROUND 10 PERCENT
THURSDAY...AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
MOST OF MOS HAS TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY DURING THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE
IFR FOG AT AGS/OGB. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1238 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1030 PM CDT
MAIN CHANGES FOR A LATE EVENING FORECAST UPDATE HAVE FOCUSED ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER IOWA. A BOW ECHO
ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV IS SAGGING SEWD THROUGH ERN IOWA AS THE MCV
QUICKLY TRACKS EAST THROUGH SRN WISCONSIN. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT
WITH THE BOW ECHO WILL STILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. HAVE TIMED THE BOW TO REACH THE RFD AREA BY AROUND 11 PM
AND ALL SIGNS INDICATE THAT THE BOW WILL PLOW THROUGH NWRN/NCNTRL
IL...THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF IT WILL MAINTAIN
INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES THE CHICAGO METRO AREA AS THE SYSTEM
HAS ALREADY BEEN GOING FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TAKING ON AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTATION...WHICH IS TRAILING WEST FROM THE MAIN BOW.
THIS AREA IS BEING FED BY WARM MOIST AIR ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET. THE 00Z ILX SOUNDING INDICATED IN EXCESS OF 1.5
INCH PWAT. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THIS AREA SLOWLY BUILDING
SWD AS THE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EWD. THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND AREAL AVERAGE
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
KREIN
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
315 PM CDT
THERE IS A POTPOURRI OF FORECAST CHALLENGES AND ALL OF THEM TIED TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. LIKE A DOMINO EFFECT
MUCH HAS TO DO WITH THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION TONIGHT...AS THAT
WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...AND WHETHER RESULTANT
BOUNDARIES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LINGER...WHICH WILL HAVE
FURTHER EFFECTS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
A SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA WITH A WIDESPREAD
DOME OF HEAT AND HIGH DEW POINT AIR ACROSS THE PLAINS...OHIO
VALLEY...AND SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW IS ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CORRIDOR OF THIS BALMY AIR MASS WHICH
INCLUDES OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS AFTERNOON AN ELONGATED UPPER/MID
LEVEL JET MAX IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS OVERRIDING THE STRONG RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
CENTRAL IL. CORRELATING WITH THIS IS A TIGHTENING INSTABILITY
GRADIENT WHICH IS LIFTING NORTHWARD. JUST NORTH OF THIS GRADIENT
IS THE FAVORED CONCEPTUAL MODEL TRACK OF AN OVERNIGHT STORM
COMPLEX WHICH ARE FAVORED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN
IA THIS EVE.
THIS EVENING...
A CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR THE MO/IA/IL BORDERING INTERSECTION AS OF
300 PM IS ON THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND MAY BE
HELPED BY A MINOR SHORT WAVE/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FESTER THEIR WAY NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THIS EVE. ITS A BIT TOUGH TO TELL WHAT COVERAGE WILL BE...BUT
THIS SYNOPTIC WARM MOIST ADVECTION MAY BECOME BOOSTED ON THE
MESOSCALE ON THE FORWARD FLANK OF WHAT MCS IS EVOLVING. SO COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED EVE DEVELOPMENT NAMELY ACROSS EASTERN IA INTO
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL IL. AS SEEN ON RADAR TRENDS OF THESE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...THE STRONG INSTABILITY OF 2000-3000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE THAT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD CAN LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM THREAT.
OVERNIGHT...
THE STRONG UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE...MAYBE EVEN
MULTIPLE WAVES PER WATER VAPOR...WILL YIELD A LIKELY MCS ACROSS
OR NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER GIVEN MCS PARAMETERS IN PLACE. WITH THE
STRONG MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FEED VEERING AHEAD OF IT AND WITH
ITS OWN COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...THERE SHOULD BE A MORE RAPID
PROGRESSION THROUGH LATER EVE INTO OVERNIGHT. WHICH WAY THIS
PROGRESSES HAS BEEN SOMETHING THAT MODELS HAVE GRADUALLY STARTED
TO TREND MORE SOUTH WHICH AGREES WITH EARLIER THINKING AND MAKES
SENSE WITH 1. THE NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST SLOPING INSTABILITY
GRADIENT 2. THIS GRADIENT KEEPING THAT ORIENTATION ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL IL DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION AND 3. THE 850-300MB
THICKNESSES/FLOW REMAINING EAST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED. BECAUSE OF
THIS HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WITH
LIKELIES...ESPECIALLY AFTER 2 AM. WHETHER THE MCS SEVERE WIND
POTENTIAL DIMINISHES AS IT NEARS THE WI/IL BORDER...THERE STILL
WILL LIKELY BE SOME BACKBUILDING ON ITS SOUTHERN END TOWARD THE
INSTABILITY AND GIVEN ANGLE OF BACKWARD PROGRESSING CORFIDI
VECTORS. NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THIS WITH
CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE...THAT COULD BRING MORE OF
A HEAVY RAIN THREAT...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. SO AS THE SPC
OUTLOOK SHOWS...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS HIGHEST TO OUR
NORTHWEST BUT DOES SLOPE INTO OUR AREA...WITH WINDS BEING THE
GREATEST...ESPECIALLY IF THE COLD POOL IS CONTINUING TO DRIVE THE
SYSTEM.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ONLY LOWER-MID 70S WITH DEW
POINTS ASCENDING INTO THE LOWER 70S AREAWIDE.
TUESDAY...
THE MORNING SHOULD FIND AT LEAST CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND/OR WARM-AIR
ADVECTION CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF IF NOT MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE COULD BE DIMINISHING STORMS AS WELL. ALL OF
THIS WOULD LEAD TO A SLOW START ON THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB...BUT
RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED WITH SCATTERING AND MIXING OF VERY WARM
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 20C AND 925MB TEMPERATURES OF 26C. BIAS-
CORRECTED MODEL FORECASTS...WHICH HAVE PERFORMED WELL LATELY AND
TEND TO IN WARMER PATTERNS...ARE SHOWING LOWER TO MID 90S
AREAWIDE. BANKING ON CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE MORNING STORMS IN THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA HAVE UNDERCUT THOSE VALUES THOUGH...BUT
KEEP THE 90S SOUTH OF I-80. OUTFLOW FROM LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MORNING ACTIVITY COULD FURTHER KEEP TEMPERATURES
SUPPRESSED...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE THERE IS LARGE
BUST POTENTIAL. SO CONFIDENCE ON TUESDAY TEMPERATURES IS LOW. DEW
POINTS ARE THE ONE ELEMENT WHERE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE AND
THOSE WILL BE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S GIVEN THE HOMOGENEOUS
OBSERVATIONS OF THOSE VALUES UPSTREAM. IF AND WHERE TEMPERATURES
REACH OR EXCEED 90...THOSE DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX
READINGS TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO.
A POTENTIAL FOR RE-INITIATION OF CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WOULD
BE TIED TO ANY CONVERGENCE FROM LEFT-OVER BOUNDARIES. A CAP LOOKS TO
BE IN PLACE GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM 850MB AIR...HOWEVER A
FOCUS COULD OVERCOME THAT. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS COULD
HAPPEN...BUT TOUGH TO SAY FOR SURE. INCHED UP POPS SLIGHTLY OVER
NORTHERN IL AND THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS...BUT AGAIN EVERYTHING DEPENDS HIGHLY ON HOW TONIGHT
UNFOLDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...
BEING AT THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THE PATTERN REMAINS MESSY...TIED TO
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES SPARKING STORMS AND LOW-LEVEL JETS...NAMELY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO POPS. DO HAVE LIKELIES ON THURSDAY WHEN GREATER HEIGHT
FALLS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE 90S WITH
AGAIN HEAT INDEX READINGS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THAT WOULD BE AIDED IF TUESDAY NIGHTS CONVECTION
REMAINS TO THE NORTH. AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST FINALLY
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST...AND A BLOCKING TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA MOVES ON...PROGRESSION IN THE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THIS
WEEKEND. FINALLY HAVE INTRODUCED A PERIOD WITH BELOW MENTIONABLE
POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
* POTENTIAL FOR EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
FOR A COUPLE HOURS.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHES FROM NEAR MADISON SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS DVN THIS HOUR AND IS STEADILY MARCHING EAST. THE MOST
INTENSE PORTION OF THE LINE FROM A WIND AND SEVERE WEATHER
PERSPECTIVE APPEARS TO BE CONTAINED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
IL/WI STATELINE. FARTHER SOUTH EXPECT THE LINE TO BECOME MORE
EAST-WEST ORIENTED THROUGH TIME. WHILE THE WIND THREAT WILL BE
LOWER THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...THOUGH MAY
STILL SEE AN INITIAL STRONG GUST OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST. AHEAD
OF THE STORMS...SSE WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE SSW. ONCE THE
LINE OF STORMS PASSES OVERHEAD IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
WHERE THE WINDS END UP...BUT COULD COME AROUND TO THE EAST OR
NORTHEAST FOR A COUPLE HOURS THEN GRADUALLY VEER BACK AROUND TO
THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING.
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES EXTREMELY UNSTABLE TOMORROW BUT THERE IS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE FORCING. STILL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OR SMALLER SCALE FEATURES MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO KICK OFF A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOT MENTION
ANYTHING IN THE TAF FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE BUT
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TUESDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. TOMORROW EVENING...A LOW LEVEL JET WILL FORM
ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS EXPECTED TO KICK
OFF ANOTHER LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS. SIMILAR TO THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY MAY STAY NORTH WITH THE
LINE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED A
PROB30 FOR ORD. OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TSRA TIMING TONIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TSRA IMPACTING TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW-MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN TSRA NEAR TERMINALS TUESDAY NIGHT.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MOST OF THE TAF BEING SSW/SW WINDS BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION OVERNIGHT NEAR THE INFLUENCE OF
TSRA.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR WITH PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
211 PM CDT
A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE DENSE FOG...STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND STRONG WINDS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME SCATTERED AREAS OF FOG
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS FOG IS
LIKELY LOCALLY DENSE. HOWEVER...I HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON A FOG
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO RELATIVELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THE
FOG. HOWEVER...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECAST
UPDATES...AS IT APPEARS DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH DEW POINT AIR CONTINUES TO SHIFT OVER
THE LAKE.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA THIS EVENING. IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE. THIS ACTIVITY COULD RESULT
IN STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AND LOCALLY HIGH WAVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IT APPEARS THE WINDS OVER THE LAKE
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT OUT OF THE SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS...WHICH ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE WAVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATER
TONIGHT. THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD CONTINUE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE...AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OF THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORE
WATERS. HOWEVER...I HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR
NOW...MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
OUTFLOW FROM TONIGHTS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT THE LARGER
SCALE WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. IF THERE IS VERY
LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...OFFSHORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 25 KT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1156 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 856 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2014
Not much in the way of updates anticipated for ILX this evening.
4km WRF, local models, all eroding the activity to the NW before
it impacts Central Illinois, leaving portions in the northern
portions of the state... and also a segment diving southward
through IA and into MO by early morning. Southern segment
potentially having an impact on west central Illinois early
tomorrow morning. HRRR is similar, but slower. Will keep the
going forecast with just slight pops in the extreme north for some
iso activity/sprinkles south of main line. Will have to keep a
very close eye on the ongoing MCS to the NW though, as there is
warm moist air in its path, just running into an area of
subsidence overall. Will be very close later tonight...potentially
NW of the Illinois River Valley.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1150 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2014
VFR throughout...for now. MCS still progged to move across the
northern tier of the state. Adjusting fcst for some mid level
remnant clouds in addition to the cirrus. Threat for potential for
some showers in the far northern tier should some isolated
showers/ts head towards PIA/BMI later into the evening. But
chances are small enough not to put into the tafs at this time.
Southerly winds becoming more southwesterly tomorrow morning,
gusting again to 25 kts...and cu developing by mid morning.
HJS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 328 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2014
Main concern will be with chances of pcpn through most of the
forecast period. All models have trended further north with the
front and longer with the period of ridging this week. Differences
come with respect to when the ridging will break down enough to
allow pcpn into the area later this week. Prefer a slower solution
since the warm front will still be well north of the area through
Thursday. So will trend slower with pcpn onset and lower with pops
in upcoming forecast. Though would like to go drier in the later short
term periods, will need to stay blended with surrounding offices
as well.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday
Frontal boundary is currently lifting northward through the area
and has triggered some scattered thunderstorms, mainly in west
central Illinois. Believe these will continue moving north-
northeast and should stay mainly northwest of the IL river late
this afternoon and evening. Other showers or storms could develop
along the front in other areas, but these will not be as strong as
the ones in west central IL. All models try to have some pcpn this
evening, but GFS is overdone, and the NAM is not quite done
enough. Even the Canadian and ECMWF try to have some pcpn in the
area, but dry it out quickly bu 06z tonight. Apart from this,
believe dry weather will be the rule for remainder of the night
and through Tue. Models do well in forecasting the ridge to build
over the area this week and believe most of area will be dry
through Wed. With models trending slower with ridge breakdown,
believe most of the area could be dry through Thursday. However,
surrounding offices not as confident as I so will temper the
changes for now, but still trend in that direction. As complex of
storms moves along the front, well north of the area, outflow
boundaries could have an effect on extreme northern parts of the
cwa. Wed night and Thur, will have chc pops in parts of the cwa,
but still keep it dry in areas to the south.
Temps will be quite warm through the period and with dewpoints in
the lower 70s the whole time, believe heat index values will be in
the lower 100s for tomorrow and Wednesday.
LONG TERM...Thursday night through Monday
Extended looks to stay wet as the ridge does breakdown and a
front sits on top of the area through most of the period. Flow
becomes more zonal, which will be parallel to the front. So am
expecting periodic thunderstorms through the period. Then an upper
level trough pushes through the great lakes region and drags the
front south of the area, which should bring a return to dry and
cooler weather for Sun night and Monday.
Temps will be cooler than in first part of the week, just a tad
above normal, and then cool after the trough moves through Sun
night.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
542 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
WITH BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE E HALF OF THE CONUS. SHORTWAVE
THAT EJECTED FROM THE WRN TROF LED TO THE EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
HAS STRENGTHENED FROM THE CONVECTION AND IS NOW MOVING ACROSS NRN
WI. THE ASSOCIATED NRN END OF MCS IS MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL UPPER MI
TOWARD ERN UPPER MI ATTM. TO THE N...A MID LEVEL LOW IS OVER NRN
ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED ILL-DEFINED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE
NEAR THE N END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
MUCH OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS LAGGING A BIT BEHIND REALITY
WITH THE MCS. LARGELY UTILIZED RADAR TRENDS...BUT INCORPORTATED SOME
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE TO SHIFT ONGOING SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS ENE THIS
MORNING. BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD EXIT THE ERN FCST AREA AROUND MID
MORNING IF NOT SOONER. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SHRA...
CLOUDS WILL THIN TODAY AND A LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZE FORMATION. LAKE BREEZE MAY PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION LATER IN THE AFTN TOWARD THE WI BORDER AFTER STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. STILL...WITH HEIGHT
RISES THRU THE DAY...IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED. THE NAM/GFS SHOW MLCAPES ACROSS THE INTERIOR W HALF OF
UPPER MI INCREASING TO 1000-2000J/KG THIS AFTN. HOURLY RUC13 RUNS
ARE MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH MLCAPE IN THE 200-350J/KG RANGE
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. THESE LOWER MLCAPES ARE DUE TO MIXED LAYER
DWPTS BEING 5-10F LOWER THAN THE NAM AND GFS. PREFER THESE LOWER
VALUES GIVEN THE OVERALL LIGHT WIND FIELDS TODAY THAT WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE S. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WHICH IS STILL CONTINUING WELL TO THE S IN
IA/SRN WI/NRN IL WILL KEEP BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY HELD UP WELL TO
THE S OF HERE.
IF ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN TOWARD THE WI BORDER...THE
PCPN MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING HRS. OTHERWISE...
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION AND LIKELY MCS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM WRN TROF. GIVEN HOW FAR S THE BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY...BELIEVE NRN END OF CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY SHORTWAVE
MAY STAY COMPLETELY S OF UPPER MI. THOUGHT ABOUT REMOVING POPS
COMPLETLY AFTER ANY EARLY EVENING ISOLD CONVECTION...BUT OPTED TO
JUST TRIM SCHC/CHC POPS BACK CLOSER TO THE WI/MI BORDER AS EVERY
AVBL MODEL SHOWS SOME CONVECTION CROSSING THE BORDER TONIGHT.
PERHAPS THIS NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IS SOMEWHAT TIED TO ILL-DEFINED
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY N OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DRIFT S ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES TODAY/TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF BUILDING HUDSON BAY SFC HIGH
PRES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
PRELIM DISCUSSION
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE WISCONSIN BORDER...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE RAIN FREE DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. THE DRIEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING AS LOW AS 25 TO 35
PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES THURSDAY
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...WHICH HAS
BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE MORNING FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
EXPECT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EXIT EAST FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE
SOUTH WITH MAINLY JUST LIGHTER SHOWERS BRUSHING UPPER MICHIGAN AS A
DISTURBANCE EDGES TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SINCE MAINLY JUST LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THOUGH
SOME HIGHER END MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE AT KSAW.
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY HEAVY ENOUGH PCPN WILL DEVELOP TO LOWER CIGS
TOWARD IFR IS LOW. WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...EXPECT ALL
TERMINALS TO BE VFR BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
PATCHY FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. 5SM HAS ALREADY
BEEN REPORTED JUST N OF ONTONAGON EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ONLY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...THAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED
BY A RIDGE THIS EVENING...EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
NE...AND FUNNEL OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH GUSTS OF
20-25KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
NORTH DAKOTA APPROACHES NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BRINGING THE RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
517 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NE THROUGH NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH TRIGGERED CONVECTION ACROSS
ERN NE EARLIER THIS MORNING AND NOW HAS CONVECTION FOCUSED AT
PRESENT OVER ERN SD AND SW MN AT NOSE OF ASSOC 40-45 KT LOW-LVL
JET...BEST MLCAPE GRADIENT OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8.5C/KM. HIGHER LAPSE RATES TO 7C/KM FARTHER NORTH ALSO
SUPPORTING CLUSTER OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER NRN MN INTO FAR NRN WI.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY SNEAK INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHRA...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT
THIS CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DIE OFF AS IT MOVES AWAY
FROM THE BETTER INSTABILITY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
FCST FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH CONVECTION WHICH HAS FORMED OVER SRN MN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WHERE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED INTO TUESDAY. AS FAR AS
CONVECTION TONIGHT...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 12Z
REGIONAL GEM AND GFS AND AWAY FROM THE 12Z NAM WHICH BRINGS
STRONGEST CONVECTION TOO FAR NORTH INTO UPPER MI GIVEN MORE
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT. FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE 12Z
REGIONAL GEM AND GFS...WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH IDEA OF PREV FCST
WITH MINOR TWEAKS KEEPING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS GENERALLY OVER
THE SCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHERE
THIS PORTION OF CWA WILL BE ON NRN FRINGE OF MCS ACTIVITY MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WITH HIGHEST MLCAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG AND
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES 8-9C/KM FCST TO STAY WELL SOUTH CLOSER TO
WARM FRONT WOULD EXPECT ANY SVR STORMS TO STAY SOUTH OF UPPER MI
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF WARM FRONT AS DEPICTED ON
THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK WHERE THE SLIGHT RISK LINE MAKES IT JUST
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF GRB AND WAUSAW. BEST CHC OF TSRA TONIGHT WILL BE
OVER SCNTRL UPPER MI CLOSER TO BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WAKE LOW
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AS NRN FRINGE OF MCS MOVES ACROSS SCNTRL
AND SE FCST AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS OVER THESE AREAS IN
THE WAKE OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.
MODELS SHOW CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING MCS EXITING THE ERN FCST AREA
BY LATE TUE MORNING. MAIN QUESTION FOR TUE WILL BE CHCS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE WI BDR. WILL TREND TOWARD DRIER FCST
FOR TUE PER REGIONAL GEM AND NAM WHICH KEEPS DEVELOPING AFTERNOON
CONVECTION GENERALLY SOUTH OF CWA. SINCE THE 12Z GFS IS THE ONLY
MODEL TO BRING THE WARM FRONT NORTH INTO UPPER MI WILL TEND TO SHY
AWAY FROM ITS FARTHER NORTH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH 8H TEMPS IN
THE 14-16C...EXPECT INLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S INTERIOR
WEST/SCNTRL TO UPPER 70S EAST...WITH COOLER 60S TEMPS ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES SHORELINES FROM DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
PRELIM DISCUSSION
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE WISCONSIN BORDER...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE RAIN FREE DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. THE DRIEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING AS LOW AS 25 TO 35
PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES THURSDAY
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...WHICH HAS
BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE MORNING FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
EXPECT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EXIT EAST FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE
SOUTH WITH MAINLY JUST LIGHTER SHOWERS BRUSHING UPPER MICHIGAN AS A
DISTURBANCE EDGES TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SINCE MAINLY JUST LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THOUGH
SOME HIGHER END MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE AT KSAW.
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY HEAVY ENOUGH PCPN WILL DEVELOP TO LOWER CIGS
TOWARD IFR IS LOW. WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...EXPECT ALL
TERMINALS TO BE VFR BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
PATCHY FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. 5SM HAS ALREADY
BEEN REPORTED JUST N OF ONTONAGON EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ONLY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...THAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED
BY A RIDGE THIS EVENING...EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
NE...AND FUNNEL OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH GUSTS OF
20-25KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
NORTH DAKOTA APPROACHES NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BRINGING THE RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
504 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NE THROUGH NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH TRIGGERED CONVECTION ACROSS
ERN NE EARLIER THIS MORNING AND NOW HAS CONVECTION FOCUSED AT
PRESENT OVER ERN SD AND SW MN AT NOSE OF ASSOC 40-45 KT LOW-LVL
JET...BEST MLCAPE GRADIENT OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8.5C/KM. HIGHER LAPSE RATES TO 7C/KM FARTHER NORTH ALSO
SUPPORTING CLUSTER OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER NRN MN INTO FAR NRN WI.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY SNEAK INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHRA...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT
THIS CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DIE OFF AS IT MOVES AWAY
FROM THE BETTER INSTABILITY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
FCST FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH CONVECTION WHICH HAS FORMED OVER SRN MN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WHERE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED INTO TUESDAY. AS FAR AS
CONVECTION TONIGHT...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 12Z
REGIONAL GEM AND GFS AND AWAY FROM THE 12Z NAM WHICH BRINGS
STRONGEST CONVECTION TOO FAR NORTH INTO UPPER MI GIVEN MORE
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT. FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE 12Z
REGIONAL GEM AND GFS...WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH IDEA OF PREV FCST
WITH MINOR TWEAKS KEEPING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS GENERALLY OVER
THE SCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHERE
THIS PORTION OF CWA WILL BE ON NRN FRINGE OF MCS ACTIVITY MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WITH HIGHEST MLCAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG AND
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES 8-9C/KM FCST TO STAY WELL SOUTH CLOSER TO
WARM FRONT WOULD EXPECT ANY SVR STORMS TO STAY SOUTH OF UPPER MI
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF WARM FRONT AS DEPICTED ON
THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK WHERE THE SLIGHT RISK LINE MAKES IT JUST
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF GRB AND WAUSAW. BEST CHC OF TSRA TONIGHT WILL BE
OVER SCNTRL UPPER MI CLOSER TO BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WAKE LOW
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AS NRN FRINGE OF MCS MOVES ACROSS SCNTRL
AND SE FCST AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS OVER THESE AREAS IN
THE WAKE OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.
MODELS SHOW CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING MCS EXITING THE ERN FCST AREA
BY LATE TUE MORNING. MAIN QUESTION FOR TUE WILL BE CHCS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE WI BDR. WILL TREND TOWARD DRIER FCST
FOR TUE PER REGIONAL GEM AND NAM WHICH KEEPS DEVELOPING AFTERNOON
CONVECTION GENERALLY SOUTH OF CWA. SINCE THE 12Z GFS IS THE ONLY
MODEL TO BRING THE WARM FRONT NORTH INTO UPPER MI WILL TEND TO SHY
AWAY FROM ITS FARTHER NORTH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH 8H TEMPS IN
THE 14-16C...EXPECT INLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S INTERIOR
WEST/SCNTRL TO UPPER 70S EAST...WITH COOLER 60S TEMPS ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES SHORELINES FROM DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
PRELIM DISCUSSION
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL
EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE WISCONSIN BORDER...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE RAIN FREE DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. THE DRIEST AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING AS LOW AS 25 TO 35
PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES THURSDAY
WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...WHICH HAS
BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE MORNING FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
EXPECT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EXIT EAST FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE
SOUTH WITH MAINLY JUST LIGHTER SHOWERS BRUSHING UPPER MICHIGAN AS A
DISTURBANCE EDGES TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SINCE MAINLY JUST LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THOUGH
SOME HIGHER END MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE AT KSAW.
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY HEAVY ENOUGH PCPN WILL DEVELOP TO LOWER CIGS
TOWARD IFR IS LOW. WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...EXPECT ALL
TERMINALS TO BE VFR BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
WEAK PRES GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT THRU
TUE. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSTMS
PASSING THRU WI AND AT LEAST PARTS OF UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT/TUE
MORNING...THERE MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS FOR A TIME LATE
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. FROM LATE TUE THRU FRI...LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
BECOME SITUATED BTWN A HUDSON BAY HIGH AND A LOW PRES TROF SLOWLY
ADVANCING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS
LATER TUE THRU FRI. WHILE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER
20KT...THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
WRN PART OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MN N SHORE DUE TO
COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. OTHERWISE...WINDS OVERALL COULD BE
STRONGER DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRES AND LOW PRES.
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND LINGERING HIGHER DEWPOINTS
OVER THE AREA INTO WED...LOOK FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
143 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NE THROUGH NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH TRIGGERED CONVECTION ACROSS
ERN NE EARLIER THIS MORNING AND NOW HAS CONVECTION FOCUSED AT
PRESENT OVER ERN SD AND SW MN AT NOSE OF ASSOC 40-45 KT LOW-LVL
JET...BEST MLCAPE GRADIENT OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8.5C/KM. HIGHER LAPSE RATES TO 7C/KM FARTHER NORTH ALSO
SUPPORTING CLUSTER OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER NRN MN INTO FAR NRN WI.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY SNEAK INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHRA...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT
THIS CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DIE OFF AS IT MOVES AWAY
FROM THE BETTER INSTABILITY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
FCST FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH CONVECTION WHICH HAS FORMED OVER SRN MN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WHERE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED INTO TUESDAY. AS FAR AS
CONVECTION TONIGHT...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 12Z
REGIONAL GEM AND GFS AND AWAY FROM THE 12Z NAM WHICH BRINGS
STRONGEST CONVECTION TOO FAR NORTH INTO UPPER MI GIVEN MORE
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT. FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE 12Z
REGIONAL GEM AND GFS...WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH IDEA OF PREV FCST
WITH MINOR TWEAKS KEEPING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS GENERALLY OVER
THE SCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHERE
THIS PORTION OF CWA WILL BE ON NRN FRINGE OF MCS ACTIVITY MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WITH HIGHEST MLCAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG AND
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES 8-9C/KM FCST TO STAY WELL SOUTH CLOSER TO
WARM FRONT WOULD EXPECT ANY SVR STORMS TO STAY SOUTH OF UPPER MI
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF WARM FRONT AS DEPICTED ON
THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK WHERE THE SLIGHT RISK LINE MAKES IT JUST
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF GRB AND WAUSAW. BEST CHC OF TSRA TONIGHT WILL BE
OVER SCNTRL UPPER MI CLOSER TO BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WAKE LOW
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AS NRN FRINGE OF MCS MOVES ACROSS SCNTRL
AND SE FCST AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS OVER THESE AREAS IN
THE WAKE OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.
MODELS SHOW CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING MCS EXITING THE ERN FCST AREA
BY LATE TUE MORNING. MAIN QUESTION FOR TUE WILL BE CHCS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE WI BDR. WILL TREND TOWARD DRIER FCST
FOR TUE PER REGIONAL GEM AND NAM WHICH KEEPS DEVELOPING AFTERNOON
CONVECTION GENERALLY SOUTH OF CWA. SINCE THE 12Z GFS IS THE ONLY
MODEL TO BRING THE WARM FRONT NORTH INTO UPPER MI WILL TEND TO SHY
AWAY FROM ITS FARTHER NORTH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH 8H TEMPS IN
THE 14-16C...EXPECT INLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S INTERIOR
WEST/SCNTRL TO UPPER 70S EAST...WITH COOLER 60S TEMPS ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES SHORELINES FROM DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN QUEBEC...WHILE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
STRETCH FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO LAKE WINNIPEG. AT THE
SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN NORTHERN QUEBEC AND
ALSO IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH STRETCHING BETWEEN
THE TWO LOWS AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. TO THE
NORTH OF THE TROUGH...A HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER WESTERN HUDSON
BAY WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTH TO FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
HUDSON BAY HIGH AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTROL MUCH OF THE FORECAST
FOR THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MCS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST TRENDS SEEM TO BE FOR A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH TRACK THAN SHOWN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THAT SEEMS
REASONABLE. THAT MORE SOUTHERN IDEA WILL LIKELY POSITION THE TROUGH
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW DRY
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HUDSON BAY HIGH TO MOVE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. INDICATIONS ARE FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH OR DEVELOPING WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM
SIOUX FALLS THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND KICK OF ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
THIS BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...FEEL THAT MUCH OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS (LOW END CHANCES) POSITIONED ALONG THE
WISCONSIN BORDER AND SLIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF. WITH
PROPAGATION VECTORS INDICATING MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTHEAST...WOULD
THINK THAT AT MOST WE WOULD ONLY SEE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED STRATIFORM PRECIP.
WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE BOUNDARY STAYING TO THE SOUTH...THE
SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE HUDSON BAY WILL PUSH OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA AND LEAD TO DRY AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL FOLLOW THE SAME IDEA AS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP THE BEST POPS (LOW CHANCES) RIGHT ALONG THE
WISCONSIN BORDER...ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE OVERDONE (ESPECIALLY SINCE
THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES).
OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OR JUST HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP HIGHS COOLEST NEAR THE SHORELINE...WITH
INLAND VALUES IN THE 70S. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE EAST...THIS DRIER
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THE DRY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST 30
DAYS (GENERALLY UNDER 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL).
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE ROCKIES TO START THE PERIOD WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND THEN SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST WHILE MERGING WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN QUEBEC THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST...AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE CHANCE
POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TRACK. MODEL MUCAPE AND SHOWALTER VALUES
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...SO WOULD EXPECT THUNDER
CHANCES TO BE LIMITED AND WILL MATCH WITH THE POPS FOR NOW. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THIS UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL DEPART
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY/MONDAY...SO WILL FOLLOW A
GENERAL CONSENSUS OF CHANCE/SLIGHT POPS SUNDAY DIMINISHING BY
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE
SOUTH WITH MAINLY JUST LIGHTER SHOWERS BRUSHING UPPER MICHIGAN AS A
DISTURBANCE EDGES TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SINCE MAINLY JUST LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THOUGH
SOME HIGHER END MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE AT KSAW.
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY HEAVY ENOUGH PCPN WILL DEVELOP TO LOWER CIGS
TOWARD IFR IS LOW. WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...EXPECT ALL
TERMINALS TO BE VFR BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
WEAK PRES GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT THRU
TUE. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSTMS
PASSING THRU WI AND AT LEAST PARTS OF UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT/TUE
MORNING...THERE MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS FOR A TIME LATE
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. FROM LATE TUE THRU FRI...LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
BECOME SITUATED BTWN A HUDSON BAY HIGH AND A LOW PRES TROF SLOWLY
ADVANCING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS
LATER TUE THRU FRI. WHILE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER
20KT...THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
WRN PART OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MN N SHORE DUE TO
COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. OTHERWISE...WINDS OVERALL COULD BE
STRONGER DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRES AND LOW PRES.
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND LINGERING HIGHER DEWPOINTS
OVER THE AREA INTO WED...LOOK FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
311 AM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
HEADS UP EVERYONE...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE IN EASTERN ZONES TODAY.
DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST...WITH
VERY DIFFLUENT SSW FLOW OVER OUR REGION. AREA OF COLD TOPS LIFTING
OUT OF WESTERN WYOMING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING ASCENT AS 90 KT
H3 JET COMES OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROF. MODELS NOT PRODUCING
MUCH QPF IN OUR AREA THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE ASCENT AND FACT
THAT OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE MOSTLY EASTERLY PER BLX VAD...FEEL
THAT SHOWERS WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR WEST HALF
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE MADE SOME POP ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. SECONDARY JET STREAK WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY SO FELT
COMFORTABLE IN PAINTING LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR AREA...WITH JET FORCING EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST BY
THIS EVENING AS LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST.
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN OUR EAST TODAY WHERE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING. SHARP
INVERTED SFC TROF WILL SET UP OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES TODAY...AND
ALONG AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE IS WHERE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTS...WITH STRONG SHEAR...CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND
PWATS RISING TO AN INCH OR MORE. LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT...BUT HIGH LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ON NORTHERN FLANK OF
SFC TROF SUGGEST A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. CIPS ANALOGS ALSO SHOW A
COUPLE TORNADOES NEAR BAKER AND EKALAKA IN SIMILAR PATTERNS IN
THE PAST. ONE POSSIBLE ISSUE COULD BE IF THERE IS TOO MUCH CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE DAY...LIMITING THE CAPE WE
CAN ACHIEVE. RAP SOUNDING FOR BHK DOES SHOW A CAP BREAKING BY
MIDDAY. NONETHELESS...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE RIPE FOR SEVERE
STORMS IF DISCRETE CELLS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE OTHER ISSUE
WITH CONVECTION IN OUR EAST TODAY WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAIN. STORM
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 15KTS OR LESS...WITH
TRAINING POSSIBLE ALONG AXIS OF SFC TROF...SO EXPECT MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL
ASCENT PERSISTS THROUGH AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. LATEST FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE FOR OUR EAST IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES/HR OR 1.8 INCHES/3HR.
HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR CARTER...FALLON AND CARTER
COUNTIES.
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY WILL BE IN A MUCH COOLER
AND LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AND THUS NON-SEVERE TODAY. THIS
OBVIOUSLY INCLUDES BILLINGS.
MODELS STILL SUGGEST DRY SLOTTING ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE
WRAPPING BACK INTO OUR WEST IN NW FLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DUE TO
THE STRONGLY CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT WE SHOULD STILL SEE
SOME DIURNAL WEAK SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SPEAKING OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT...700MB TEMPS ARE FALLING
BELOW 0C OVER OUR FAR WESTERN MTNS THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA AND
CRAZY MTNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AS OF 3AM...TEMPS AT 9 KFT
ARE IN THE MID 30S...SO THIS IS PROBABLY A ROUGH SNOW LEVEL AT
THIS TIME. COULD SEE SNOW DOWN TO 7.5-8 KFT BY TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL OBVIOUSLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F ON WEDNESDAY.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM KEEPS A CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL SHOWING UP WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER
RETURNING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVES IN OVER MONTANA BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING HEIGHTS AND ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL SEND PIECES OF ENERGY INTO SC/SE
MT. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVELS MOIST AND AFTERNOON
HEATING ALONG WITH THE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING
ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION. RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
WILL BRING LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
MILES CITY TO BROADUS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 65KTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH
BY 05Z TONIGHT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. RICHMOND
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 048/066 049/073 051/081 054/085 056/082 055/081
6/T 54/T 33/T 21/U 11/B 23/T 34/T
LVM 061 040/060 042/071 045/078 047/080 048/078 048/078
6/T 55/T 42/T 11/U 23/T 33/T 33/T
HDN 071 049/068 048/074 050/083 053/088 056/084 056/082
6/T 63/T 33/T 21/U 11/U 23/T 33/T
MLS 074 053/070 049/071 052/081 055/085 058/083 057/082
7/T 75/T 34/T 32/T 11/U 22/T 22/T
4BQ 076 052/070 048/072 051/081 053/085 056/083 055/081
4/T 74/T 44/T 21/B 11/U 12/T 22/T
BHK 073 054/069 048/068 049/076 051/081 054/079 054/077
9/T +6/T 34/T 32/T 11/U 12/T 22/T
SHR 070 045/065 043/071 047/080 049/084 052/081 052/080
5/T 63/T 33/T 21/U 11/B 23/T 34/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR ZONES 32-33-37.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1152 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
ELEMENTS NECESSARY FOR SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT COMING TOGETHER LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AN OPEN GULF THE LAST 24HR HAS ALLOWED STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. MESO ANALYSIS INDICATING
SFC DEW PTS IN THE LOW 70S HAVE PUSHED IN THE CWA ALONG WITH PWS
VALUES APPROACHING 1.75". WITH STRONG BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADV
UNDERWAY...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
SBCAPES PUSHING 5500J/KG...LI -14. ALONG WITH FAVORABLE EFF-SRH IN
PLACE...TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS QUITE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN CWA WHERE BEST 0-1KM SRH...LOW
LFC/LCL WILL BE FOCUSED. TWD LATE EVENING HRRR IS SHOWING STORMS
EVOLVING INTO AN MCS AS IT MOVES INTO NW IA.
TUES AND WED HEFTY MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE TO PHASE WITH
MUCH WARMER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN ALLOWING FOR QUITE MUGGY
CONDITIONS. NAM AND GFS STILL PROG HEAT INDICES APPROACHING/AROUND
100 DEG BOTH DAYS.
WED NIGHT...NEXT ROUND OF TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO FORM ON NOSE
OF LLVL JET/BNDRY LYR THETA-E CONVG. HVY RA LOOKS PROBABLE GIVEN
FAVORABLE PCPN EFFICIENCY/KI VALUES 40/PWS CLOSE TO 2". ACTIVITY
THEN PROGGED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING IN ANOTHER GOOD
CHANCE OF STORMS WITH 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE...WHICH PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND EAST/OUT OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WAVE MATERIALIZES ON THE GFS BY FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS GENERALLY DRY...SO
CONFIDENCE THAT FAR OUT IS TYPICALLY LOW. WILL OPT FOR A DRY
FORECAST SATURDAY...BUT MODELS DO HINT AT ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IN
THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. ONGOING STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KOFK. CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT KOFK AND 10-15KT WINDS AT
KOMA/KLNK OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL SITES TO AROUND
15-18KT GUSTING TO AROUND 25-30KT IN THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING
AGAIN DIURNALLY TO AROUND 10-15KT AFTER 01Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
145 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATED DISCUSSION...S/WV IMPULSE
LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM NORTHEASTERN WYOMING TRIGGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MY SOUTHWEST. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE THROUGH 12Z...WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS EXPANDING NORTH AND SLIGHTLY EAST WITH TIME
THIS MORNING. A STRONGER STORM OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT ALSO UNDERWAY BASED ON LATEST OBS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
CONVECTION SLOWLY DECREASING AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD TOWARDS
LOWER INSTABILITY. S/WV LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN
WYOMING WILL BE THE NEXT TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EARLY MORNING...SPREADING NORTH AND SLIGHTLY EAST
THROUGH THE AM HOURS.
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH SKY COVER AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTH AS A MOIST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTRIBUTES TO WIDESPREAD
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
FOLLOWING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 03 UTC AND THE 01-02 UTC
RAP/HRRR...CONVECTION AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE WITH SUNSET ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AS
IMPULSES CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
FOLLOWING THE 20-21 UTC RAP/HRRR RUNS...SUPPORTED BY STABLE 18 UTC
NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE LACK OF A CUMULUS FIELD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...REMOVED POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA
HIGHWAY 3. ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ISOLATED CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED.
HOWEVER...RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE LIMITING
INTENSITY. ML CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40
KTS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION...HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE ISOLATED. FINALLY...GIVEN UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW...DID ADD
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE...GO FIGURE.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH INTO WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA ALONG AN OLD
BOUNDARY. LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DEVELOPING BOUNDARY INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TRACKING EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BUMPED UP POPS TO
CHANCE CATEGORY IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP CONTINUE TO DIMINISH CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER EASTER
MONTANA...BUT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY...THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. CONSIDERED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT WITH THE INCREASED POTENTIAL HOLDING OFF
UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT MORE LIKE TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK. PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD ADDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE
FAR WEST AND WILL CONTINUE THIS AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT REGARDING MOVING THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD AND MOVING A RIDGE
INTO THE DAKOTAS BY THE WEEKEND.
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THE NEAR TERM PLACING THE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THURSDAY...AND
MOVING IT EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: ON TUESDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM A LOW OVER KANSAS NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
DURING THIS TIME THE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN
PLACE. A LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL
FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...AND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF CAPE AND SHEAR FOR SUSTAINING
THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. BY WEDNESDAY THE THREAT
IS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 85.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE NEAR
THE ND/MT/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE...WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: BY THE END OF THE WEEK THERE
WILL HAVE BEEN A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
- WITH THE ADDITIONAL THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND
BUILD A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER MONTANA/DAKOTAS. A FEW WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE WEAK RIDGE WILL RESULT IN ONLY
SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. KDIK REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO BE
IMPACTED. WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR FOG AND
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KDIK-KBIS AND POSSIBLY KISN AND
KJMS. KMOT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF THIS FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. NEXT 24 HOURS WILL SEE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALL LOCATIONS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1207 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
CONVECTION SLOWLY DECREASING AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD TOWARDS
LOWER INSTABILITY. S/WV LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN
WYOMING WILL BE THE NEXT TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EARLY MORNING...SPREADING NORTH AND SLIGHTLY EAST
THROUGH THE AM HOURS.
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH SKY COVER AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTH AS A MOIST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTRIBUTES TO WIDESPREAD
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
FOLLOWING THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 03 UTC AND THE 01-02 UTC
RAP/HRRR...CONVECTION AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE WITH SUNSET ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AS
IMPULSES CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
FOLLOWING THE 20-21 UTC RAP/HRRR RUNS...SUPPORTED BY STABLE 18 UTC
NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE LACK OF A CUMULUS FIELD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...REMOVED POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA
HIGHWAY 3. ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ISOLATED CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED.
HOWEVER...RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE LIMITING
INTENSITY. ML CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40
KTS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION...HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE ISOLATED. FINALLY...GIVEN UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW...DID ADD
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE...GO FIGURE.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH INTO WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA ALONG AN OLD
BOUNDARY. LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DEVELOPING BOUNDARY INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TRACKING EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BUMPED UP POPS TO
CHANCE CATEGORY IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP CONTINUE TO DIMINISH CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER EASTER
MONTANA...BUT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY...THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. CONSIDERED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT WITH THE INCREASED POTENTIAL HOLDING OFF
UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT MORE LIKE TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK. PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD ADDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE
FAR WEST AND WILL CONTINUE THIS AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT REGARDING MOVING THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD AND MOVING A RIDGE
INTO THE DAKOTAS BY THE WEEKEND.
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THE NEAR TERM PLACING THE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THURSDAY...AND
MOVING IT EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: ON TUESDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM A LOW OVER KANSAS NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
DURING THIS TIME THE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN
PLACE. A LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL
FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...AND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF CAPE AND SHEAR FOR SUSTAINING
THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. BY WEDNESDAY THE THREAT
IS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 85.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE NEAR
THE ND/MT/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE...WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: BY THE END OF THE WEEK THERE
WILL HAVE BEEN A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
- WITH THE ADDITIONAL THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND
BUILD A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER MONTANA/DAKOTAS. A FEW WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE WEAK RIDGE WILL RESULT IN ONLY
SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. KDIK REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO BE
IMPACTED. WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR FOG AND
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KDIK AND POSSIBLY KISN AND KBIS.
KMOT AND KJMS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF THIS FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PENDLETON OR
1000 PM PDT MON JUN 16 2014
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.UPDATE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL LINGER
WEDNESDAY OVER THE BLUES AND WALLOWA COUNTY. COONFIELD
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS THOUGH STRONGER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER
21Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AFTER 15-18Z TUESDAY.
CEILINGS WILL BE MOSTLY SCT-BKN AT 4-6 THOUSAND FEET AND BKN-OVC AT
8-10 THOUSAND FEET. 76
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 215 PM PDT MON JUN 16 2014/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING PRODUCING SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLD
TSRA. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ANY TSRA SHOULD DISSIPATE AND
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD LESSEN. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVES INTO IDAHO TOMORROW BUT RAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR AREA SO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TWO STATE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE BY THURSDAY
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WA/OR AND OUR AREA SHOULD
EXPERIENCE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE REGION WILL BECOME
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING S-SW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE
PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD TO
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER ELEVATION HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S
BY SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS 55-60F. AT THE SAME TIME THERE WILL BE
A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS SUCH THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY EXTEND NORTHWARD ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. FOR NOW WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
AND KEPT THE LOWER BASINS DRY BECAUSE THE ECMWF MODEL WAS LESS
EMPHATIC ABOUT THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW...KEEPING THE FLOW MORE
WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER/MORE STABLE. 78
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 45 62 49 76 / 20 30 20 10
ALW 50 64 53 77 / 20 40 30 10
PSC 52 70 53 82 / 20 30 20 10
YKM 46 71 50 78 / 20 20 10 10
HRI 49 67 50 80 / 20 20 20 10
ELN 47 70 51 75 / 30 20 10 10
RDM 34 61 35 73 / 20 20 10 10
LGD 43 55 45 70 / 30 40 30 20
GCD 39 56 41 73 / 20 20 30 10
DLS 51 70 53 78 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
76/76/76
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
212 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ATOP THE SOUTHEAST REGION
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 210 AM...COVERAGE OF MON SHRA/TSRA RESULTED IN MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. CLEARING SKY
AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD FAVOR FOG DEVELOPING DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOG TIMING AND
PLACEMENT.
AS OF 1015 PM EDT MONDAY...LOCAL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO STABILIZE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING THEREFORE...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND TRIM POPS
ACROSS THE NC/SC PIEDMONT WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION ON A
DOWNWARD POP TREND. LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALL BUT CLEARED AS COOLING
EFFECTS FLATTEN LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO ONLY A FEW
SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS. EARLIER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE TO FOG POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS
AND DECOUPLES...THUS NO CHANGES MADE REGARDING AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS AND THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
LASTLY...ALSO MADE TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
EXTREME NEAR TERM TO REFLECT LATEST SURFACE OBS WHICH WERE IMPACTED
BY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW LEADING TO A RATHER SPORADIC TEMPERATURE
FIELD ACROSS THE REGION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 200 PM...WELL AS ADVERTISED BY THE GSO/FFC SNDGS THIS
MORNING...THERE IS NO INHIBITION...AND HENCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHWRS AND TSTMS HAVE BLOSSOMED QUICKLY ACRS THE CWFA...DESPITE LARGE
HIGH PRES SYSTEM ATOP THE REGION. THE LAPS AND RAP BOTH SHOW 2500 TO
OVER 4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. SO I HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FURTHER FROM
PREVIOUS UPDATE...WITH SOLID CHC TO LIKELY POP ACRS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...AND CHC POP OVER PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE PIEDMONT. PWATS
ARE 125-150% OF NORMAL AND STORMS ARE SLOW-MOVERS...SO ISOLD HEAVY
RAIN/FLOOD THREAT LOOKS TO EXIST IN ADDITION TO A SMALL WET
MICROBURST THREAT. LARGE HAIL LOOKS MORE UNLIKELY...BUT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE HIGH SBCAPE.
STORMS SHUD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING SOME LINGER MID
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS INTO THE LATE EVENING. WITH HIGH PRES STILL IN
PLACE...WINDS SHUD BE LIGHT AND ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG...ESP IN
THE MTN VLYS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 60S MTNS AND UPR
60S TO LWR 70S PIEDMONT (ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL).
TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED...WITH MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON 500 MB HIGH AROUND 592 DAM CENTERED JUST TO OUR
WEST. PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AND STRONG INSOLATION SHUD RESULT IN
ANOTHER UNCAPPED...MOD-HIGHLY UNSTABLE DAY. SO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACRS THE AREA...STARTING IN THE MTNS
EARLY AFTN. A SMALL PULSE SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY EXIST
AGAIN...GIVEN SIMILAR PROFILES. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...NO SURPRISES WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE IN THE
SHORT TERM. AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH
EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
THAT MEANS WE CAN EXPECT THE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT COULD BE IN PLAY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS SOME OF THE
MODELS ACTIVATE THE LEE TROUGH. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT THAT COVERAGE
WOULD SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE DUE TO GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE UNDER UPPER HIGH. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN
THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE SCT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND A
COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE ON WED...AND 8-10 DEGEREES ABOVE AVE
ON THU ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...STARTING 00Z FRI...THE 500MB RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE SE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE VORTICITY CENTERS PASSING MOSTLY TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD INDICATE THE NUMBER OF MCS
OR MCC CROSSING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. ONE OF THESE VORT
CENTERS CROSSES THE MID APPALACHIANS SATURDAY...BUT THE ECMWF HAS IT
ARRIVING SATURDAY MORNING AND GFS HAS IT WASHING OUT AS IT ARRIVES
LATE SATURDAY. THIS COULD BOOST THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON SATURDAY...MAINLY FOR THE MTNS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
CROSSING TN AND KY ON MONDAY. MODELS SHOW A CLUSTER OF VORTS OVER
THE LOWER MISS VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK POISED TO MOVE IN OUR
DIRECTION. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT NEXT MONDAY WITH
THE GFS HAVING A SIGNIFICANT 500MB TROUGH DIVING SE OVER MISS VALLEY
AND EC HAVING A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WHOLE NATION. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CONTINUED VERY WARM TEMPS. IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...GFS HAS
GREATEST CAPE VALUES LATE SATURDAY OVER NE GA TO SW NC MTNS WITH
AROUND 2500 AT THAT TIME. SEEMS MORE REASONABLE IN THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT WINDS WILL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL INDICATES THAT WET
SOILS EXIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. BASED ON RECENT MORNING
OBSERVATIONS AND MON RAINFALL...I WILL HIGHLIGHT THE 10Z TO 12Z TIME
WINDOW FOR TEMPO MVFR FOG. THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...SW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT CU WITH BASES AROUND 060. I WILL CONTINUE THE
PROB30 GROUP FROM 21Z THROUGH 24Z FOR TSRA.
ELSEWHERE...COVERAGE OF MON SHRA/TSRA RESULTED IN MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE TERMINALS...WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SURROUNDING
AREAS. CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD FAVOR FOG
DEVELOPING DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. KAVL WILL LIKELY SEE IFR
CEILINGS FROM TIME TO TIME EARLY THIS MORNING. THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT CU WITH BASES BETWEEN
050-070. AT ALL TERMINALS...I WILL CONTINUE THE PROB30 GROUP FROM
21Z THROUGH 24Z FOR TSRA.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE MTNS. RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR DURING TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN VALLEYS
EACH MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM OVER AREAS OF RECENT
RAINFALL.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 87% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 95% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 91% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
407 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE HAS RETREATED OVERNIGHT...AND HAS CLEARED ALL BUT FAR
NORTHWEST CORNER OF FORECAST AREA. RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTS RICH
MOISTURE EAST OF DRYLINE...WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS IN THE 12 TO 17
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. VAD WIND PROFILES FROM KAMA
88D DEPICT EXISTING SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 5000 FEET OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...SO DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE. THUS...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL BUT NORTHWEST PART OF
FORECAST AREA.
WITH DEEP...RICH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SLIP INTO THE AREA AND EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. 03
COCKRELL
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
20-FOOT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
LIKELY MEET ELEVATED AND/OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER METEOROLOGICAL
CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COMBINED PANHANDLES TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND SUBSEQUENT VEGETATIVE
GREEN UP IN THESE AREAS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW. THEREFORE...
THE ISSUANCE OF ANY FIRE WEATHER BULLETINS IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
LIGHTER WINDS...HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND OPPORTUNITIES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 94 67 91 67 90 / 30 20 30 30 30
BEAVER OK 100 70 97 68 90 / 30 20 30 30 30
BOISE CITY OK 98 62 94 61 88 / 10 10 10 20 20
BORGER TX 97 71 94 70 92 / 30 20 30 30 30
BOYS RANCH TX 99 67 96 65 93 / 20 20 20 30 30
CANYON TX 94 67 92 67 91 / 30 20 30 30 30
CLARENDON TX 94 70 93 69 91 / 30 30 30 30 30
DALHART TX 97 61 94 62 89 / 20 20 10 20 20
GUYMON OK 99 67 94 66 89 / 20 20 20 30 20
HEREFORD TX 94 66 92 64 89 / 30 20 20 30 30
LIPSCOMB TX 96 71 95 70 90 / 30 30 30 30 30
PAMPA TX 95 68 92 66 89 / 30 30 30 30 30
SHAMROCK TX 97 72 94 69 90 / 20 30 30 30 30
WELLINGTON TX 97 72 95 70 93 / 20 30 30 30 30
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
14/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
312 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE BEING SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH HEADS EAST
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY WEEKS END AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...
OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
5H RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SE RESULTING IN A WEAK WEST TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER THE REGION REMAINS JUST FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO ALLOW PARCELS TO BREAK THROUGH THE
CAP ALOFT ESPCLY WHERE ORIGINATED BY OROGRAPHICS/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING...AND THEN DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP
FOR ADDED ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
PASSING OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM MONDAY AND EVEN LESS SUPPORT
ALOFT TODAY. MOST GUIDANCE AGAIN SHOWING INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE WITH OUTFLOW WORKING MORE NORTH THAN EAST
TODAY...PERHAPS RESULTING IN A FEW MORE TSRA ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
AND WEST PER LATEST HRRR AND HIRES ARW. INSTABILITY AGAIN LOOKS
QUITE IMPRESSIVE PER FORECAST 3K J/KG CAPES SOUTH-EAST AND DRY AIR
ALOFT OVERTOP STEEP LAPSES. HOWEVER LIGHT LOW LEVEL WEST WINDS MAY
TEND TO DETER COVERAGE FROM THE NEW RIVER VALLEY NORTH TO
GREENBRIER WHERE MODELS DO SHOW LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. THUS AFTER
SOME PATCHY FOG HAVE BASICALLY SHOTGUNNED IN SCATTERED POPS WITH
FOCUS MORE IN AREAS THAT SAW LESS RAINFALL ON MONDAY. OTRW
20-30ISH POPS INTO EARLY EVENING.
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID DAY WITH WESTERN RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE PER THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW AS EXPECT HIGHS 1-3 DEGREES WARMER GIVEN
SLIGHT 85H WARMING AND PERHAPS A BIT LESS CONVECTION UNDER
SUNSHINE.
APPEARS ANY EARLY CONVECTION TO QUICKLY FADE PER LACK OF UPPER
SUPPORT WITH SKIES TURNING PC TO MOSTLY CLEAR ALLOWING MORE
PATCHY FOG LATE UNDER THE RIDGING. LOWS AGAIN BASICALLY IN THE 60S
EXCEPT LIKELY STAYING ABOVE 70 IN SPOTS GIVEN MOISTURE AROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAIN JUST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH AND AN 850 MB HIGH WILL BE VERTICALLY STACKED AND CENTERED
OVER TENNESSEE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST...THEN WEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE 850 MB HIGH. THIS
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL PUSH RICH MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION.
THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE BEST CAPPING
INVERSION WEST OF THE AREA WILL YIELD DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SWODY2 HAS PLACED
THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO OUR NORTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
EASTWARD TO NEW JERSEY WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS
INVOF OF WARM FRONT WITH BEST DYNAMICS. WITH WEST WINDS AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 C...HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
THE MID 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE
PIEDMONT. RECORD HIGHS LISTED IN CLIMATE SECTION. NO REAL ESCAPE
FROM THE HEAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH
READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN
THE PIEDMONT.
ON THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL
SEND A BACKDOOR FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST TO THE MID
90S IN THE SOUTHEAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. USED HPCGUIDE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND
PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE AS UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS WHILE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. STAYING CLOSE TO WHAT WE
FORECASTED YESTERDAY IN TERMS OF KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE...DUE TO TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES RACING ALONG THE SRN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. ALL IN ALL EVEN THOUGH WILL HAVE POPS NO
HIGHER THAN 50-55...STILL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AT LEAST MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME.
WILL BE CONCERNED WITH MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND TRAINING
ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING IF IT TRACKS OVER THE SAME SPOT. STILL TOO EARLY TO MENTION
IN THE HWO...BUT BEARS WATCHING. AS THE AIRMASS HEATS UP PRIOR TO
THIS...PLENTY OF FUEL TO ADD TO THE PROVERBIAL FIRE ONCE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT LEAST FRI-SAT TO SEE
SOME SVR STORM THREAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS. CURRENTLY SPC
HIGHLIGHTING LOW PREDICTABILITY GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR AND TIMING OF
THE WAVES.
MODELS DIFFER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF FASTER
NOW WITH FROPA AND SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE EAST BY MONDAY. THIS
MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING INCONSISTENCY SO WILL LEAN TOWARD 00Z GFS/06Z
GFS AND WPC FORECAST. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE FRONT AND KEEP US IN A STICKY AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL BE STAYING
ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION UPSTREAM AND STORMS
OVERHEAD CAN HINDER THE HEAT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S...NEAR 70 SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 102 AM EDT TUESDAY...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION HAS NOW PUSHED TO THE EAST WITH THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE SO APPEARS OTHER THAN SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS SHOULD
BE MAINLY VFR FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER SOME PATCHY FOG
LIKELY ESPCLY IN THE WESTERN RIVER VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE SOUTH/SE
WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL OCCURRED. THIS WOULD LIKELY AFFECT KLWB
LATE WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR AND KDAN BY DAYBREAK. ELSW MAY SEE
VERY BRIEF FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KBCB/KLYH BUT GIVEN THE DRY GROUND
AT THESE LOCATIONS CONFIDENCE LOWER IN SEEING THIS DEVELOP.
ANY FOG CLEARS AFTER 13Z/9AM TUESDAY...LEAVING PRACTICALLY A
REPEAT OF MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT APPEARS COVERAGE MAY BE EVEN MORE ISOLATED. HOWEVER
KEEPING VCTS FOR MOST TAFS AFTER 20Z/4PM TO COINCIDE WITH THE PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY WITH LESS SUPPORT AND WEST WINDS DIMINISHING
THE TSRA THREAT AT KLWB DOWN TO KBCB. CONVECTION FADES QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY EVENING WITH A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO THAT OF
TONIGHT EXPECTED WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AROUND TUESDAY
NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH AN EVER-INCREASING THREAT FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MVFR BR TO LOCALLY LIFR
FG WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS FOLLOWING
EVENING CONVECTION.
BEST DAILY FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID TO LATE
MORNING AFTER FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF/LIFT...AND BEFORE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO OFFER THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES AND THEN STALLS OVER/NEAR THE AREA. THIS WILL PRESENT
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
LOCATIONS RECORDS (9/17) (9/18)
ROANOKE 96/1944 97/1925
LYNCHBURG 96/1944 96/1944
DANVILLE 99/1981 96/2007
BLACKSBURG 88/1994 88/2007
BLUEFIELD 86/2007 90/2007
LEWISBURG 86/1996 88/2007
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER AT MOUNT JEFFERSON IS NOT
BROADCASTING. THIS IS STATION WNG588 ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.525
MHZ. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED AND IT IS UNKNOWN WHEN IT WILL
BE FIXED...BUT EARLY ESTIMATES INDICATED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/PM
CLIMATE...JH
EQUIPMENT...WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
413 AM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
A RATHER STG UPPER LVL STORM SYSTEM FOR MID JUNE WILL MOVE INTO THE
NRN ROCKIES BY TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. OUTSIDE OF
SOME HIGH CLOUDS IT WILL REMAIN DRY THIS AFTN AND EVENING OVER THE
CWA. AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS CHANGE LITTLE FM MON SO HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS NERN
CO. FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGH IN THE SRN FOOTHILLS OVER SWRN
JEFFERSON/WRN DOUGLAS WHERE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTN.
BY LATE TONIGHT A COOL FNT WILL MOVE TO THE WY-CO BORDER WHICH MAY
LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN ZN 31 TOWARDS SUNRISE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ENERGY ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA WILL PRODUCE A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. THE STRENGTH OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW THE MOISTURE MAKING IT BACK TO
DENVER...BUT MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. EACH OF THE MODELS
AGREE ON GENERATING MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ONE OTHER
FEATURE THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS...WILL BE THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE SOUTHERLY JET
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
FORCING FOR ASCENT...HELPING THE AIRMASS TO DE-STABILIZE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FOR THE TIME BEING...SPC DOES NOT
HAVE SEVERE WEATHER MENTIONED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS IS
PROBABLY DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO FEED INTO
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS. OUR FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND NOT
MENTION ANY SEVERE WEATHER FOR NOW.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING OUT OF THE STATE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH COOLER WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL...BUT NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE STATE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DRY AGAIN EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS OVER
LINCOLN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IF ENOUGH MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ADVECTS INTO THAT PART OF THE STATE. THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND...WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...BUT
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT GULF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTH...BRINGING AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE FORECAST. ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT AND THEN CONTINUING
UPSLOPE EASTERLIES WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE TO PRODUCE A SOGGY FEW DAYS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 413 AM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
VFR THRU TONIGHT. AS FOR WINDS ANOTHER TRICKY FCST DUE TO POSITION
OF A SFC LOW. LATEST RAP AND HRRR SHOW MORE OF A SE COMPONENT THRU
THE EARLY AFTN WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE SW AROUND 21Z WHICH
CONTINUES THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS
SSW HOWEVER A WEAK COOL FNT MAY AFFECT THE AIRPORT AROUND 12Z WITH
WINDS BECOMING ENE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A
WRMFNT BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1027 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH WELL INLAND AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH SHOULD ALSO EXTEND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES PLUS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUGHT IN THE
RIDGE ALONG WITH STRONG HEATING COULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...EXPECT LITTLE COVERAGE BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AND
GENERAL UPPER RIDGING. THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVE POPS OF 10 PERCENT
OR LESS. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYS JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE NEAR THE TIME
OF MAXIMUM HEATING. THE 11Z HRRR DISPLAYS SCATTERED COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON... MAINLY IN THE WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY
ALONG THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH.
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING PLUS WET-BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 10300 FEET SUPPORTS POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL WITH ANY STORM THAT FORMS.
THE WARMER MET MOS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN VERIFYING BETTER RECENTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. STRONG
HEATING MAY HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT LITTLE COVERAGE
BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AND THE UPPER RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE POPS 10 PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE BUT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL BECAUSE OF THE RECENT COOL BIAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINNING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS A POP AROUND 10 PERCENT
THURSDAY...AND 30 PERCENT DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE A POP AROUND 10 PERCENT
THURSDAY...AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
MOST OF MOS HAS TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY DURING THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY.
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. PATCHY MORNING IFR/MVFR FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY MORNING AROUND SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT AGS/OGB.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
623 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE 900 AM.
THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH WELL INLAND AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH SHOULD ALSO EXTEND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES
PLUS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUGHT IN THE RIDGE ALONG
WITH STRONG HEATING COULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...EXPECT
LITTLE COVERAGE BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AND GENERAL UPPER
RIDGING. THE GFS AND NAM MOS HAVE POPS OF 10 PERCENT OR LESS. THE
SPC WRF DISPLAYS JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE NEAR THE TIME OF MAXIMUM
HEATING. THE 06Z HRRR DISPLAYS SCATTERED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY IN THE WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY ALONG THE LEE-
SIDE TROUGH. WE FORECASTED POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT...A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE GFS AND NAM MOS.
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING PLUS WET-
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS NEAR 10300 FEET SUPPORTS POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND
AND HAIL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE WARMER MET MOS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN VERIFYING BETTER RECENTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. STRONG
HEATING MAY HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT LITTLE COVERAGE
BECAUSE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AND THE UPPER RIDGING. THE NAM AND GFS
MOS HAVE POPS 10 PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CLOSE BUT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO COOL BECAUSE OF THE RECENT COOL BIAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINNING FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND MORE PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS A POP AROUND 10 PERCENT
THURSDAY...AND 30 PERCENT DURING THE REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE
PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE A POP AROUND 10 PERCENT
THURSDAY...AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
MOST OF MOS HAS TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY DURING THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS...EXCEPT POSSIBLE
MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS BY LATE MORNING.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
753 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
WITH BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE E HALF OF THE CONUS. SHORTWAVE
THAT EJECTED FROM THE WRN TROF LED TO THE EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
HAS STRENGTHENED FROM THE CONVECTION AND IS NOW MOVING ACROSS NRN
WI. THE ASSOCIATED NRN END OF MCS IS MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL UPPER MI
TOWARD ERN UPPER MI ATTM. TO THE N...A MID LEVEL LOW IS OVER NRN
ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED ILL-DEFINED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE
NEAR THE N END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
MUCH OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS LAGGING A BIT BEHIND REALITY
WITH THE MCS. LARGELY UTILIZED RADAR TRENDS...BUT INCORPORTATED SOME
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE TO SHIFT ONGOING SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS ENE THIS
MORNING. BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD EXIT THE ERN FCST AREA AROUND MID
MORNING IF NOT SOONER. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SHRA...
CLOUDS WILL THIN TODAY AND A LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZE FORMATION. LAKE BREEZE MAY PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION LATER IN THE AFTN TOWARD THE WI BORDER AFTER STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. STILL...WITH HEIGHT
RISES THRU THE DAY...IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED. THE NAM/GFS SHOW MLCAPES ACROSS THE INTERIOR W HALF OF
UPPER MI INCREASING TO 1000-2000J/KG THIS AFTN. HOURLY RUC13 RUNS
ARE MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH MLCAPE IN THE 200-350J/KG RANGE
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. THESE LOWER MLCAPES ARE DUE TO MIXED LAYER
DWPTS BEING 5-10F LOWER THAN THE NAM AND GFS. PREFER THESE LOWER
VALUES GIVEN THE OVERALL LIGHT WIND FIELDS TODAY THAT WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE S. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WHICH IS STILL CONTINUING WELL TO THE S IN
IA/SRN WI/NRN IL WILL KEEP BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY HELD UP WELL TO
THE S OF HERE.
IF ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN TOWARD THE WI BORDER...THE
PCPN MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING HRS. OTHERWISE...
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION AND LIKELY MCS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM WRN TROF. GIVEN HOW FAR S THE BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY...BELIEVE NRN END OF CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY SHORTWAVE
MAY STAY COMPLETELY S OF UPPER MI. THOUGHT ABOUT REMOVING POPS
COMPLETLY AFTER ANY EARLY EVENING ISOLD CONVECTION...BUT OPTED TO
JUST TRIM SCHC/CHC POPS BACK CLOSER TO THE WI/MI BORDER AS EVERY
AVBL MODEL SHOWS SOME CONVECTION CROSSING THE BORDER TONIGHT.
PERHAPS THIS NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IS SOMEWHAT TIED TO ILL-DEFINED
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY N OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DRIFT S ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES TODAY/TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF BUILDING HUDSON BAY SFC HIGH
PRES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 555 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
THE 500MB RIDGE JUST TO OUR W WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SFC HIGH OVER
HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE RAIN FREE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE DRIEST AIR
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES FALLING AS LOW AS 25 TO 35 PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...WHICH HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
MORNING FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. THE APPROACHING LOW TO THE W SHOULD
HELP BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE CWA...BUT JUST HOW FAR E THEY WILL GET
DURING THE DAY IS IN QUESTION. CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THEM OVER MAINLY
W UPPER MI THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...AND SLOWLY SWEEP THEM E ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY EXITS E AND A LOW NEARS FROM
S CANADA AND THE N PLAINS. WILL LIKELY NEED TO DIMINISH POPS A BIT
MORE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE LATEST/SLOWER ECMWF AND
CANADIAN RUNS ARE CORRECT...AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW SLIDING IN FROM
THE NW.
THE MAIN 500MB LOW LOOKS TO SINK ESE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED TO TREND BACK ON POPS
FOR WHILE FCST POPS ARE IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT A SOAKING WEEKEND IS NOT ANTICIPATED. DUE THE
LOWER CONFIDENCE OF WHEN AND WHERE SHOWERS /AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS/ COULD DEVELOP...A BROAD 20-40 PERCENT SEEMS
REASONABLE FOR NOW. WILL NEED TO DO SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE
PERIODS AS THE TIME NEARS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
SHRA HAVE RECENTLY ENDED AT KSAW. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROVIDED BY THE
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS FOR A COUPLE OF HRS BEFORE DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING WORKS TO SCT OUT CLOUDS OR RAISE CLOUD BASES.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU
THIS FCST PERIOD AS LOW-LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
PATCHY FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. 5SM HAS ALREADY
BEEN REPORTED JUST N OF ONTONAGON EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ONLY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...THAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED
BY A RIDGE THIS EVENING...EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
NE...AND FUNNEL OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH GUSTS OF
20-25KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
NORTH DAKOTA APPROACHES NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BRINGING THE RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
601 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
WITH BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE E HALF OF THE CONUS. SHORTWAVE
THAT EJECTED FROM THE WRN TROF LED TO THE EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
HAS STRENGTHENED FROM THE CONVECTION AND IS NOW MOVING ACROSS NRN
WI. THE ASSOCIATED NRN END OF MCS IS MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL UPPER MI
TOWARD ERN UPPER MI ATTM. TO THE N...A MID LEVEL LOW IS OVER NRN
ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED ILL-DEFINED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE
NEAR THE N END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
MUCH OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS LAGGING A BIT BEHIND REALITY
WITH THE MCS. LARGELY UTILIZED RADAR TRENDS...BUT INCORPORTATED SOME
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE TO SHIFT ONGOING SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS ENE THIS
MORNING. BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD EXIT THE ERN FCST AREA AROUND MID
MORNING IF NOT SOONER. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SHRA...
CLOUDS WILL THIN TODAY AND A LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZE FORMATION. LAKE BREEZE MAY PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION LATER IN THE AFTN TOWARD THE WI BORDER AFTER STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. STILL...WITH HEIGHT
RISES THRU THE DAY...IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED. THE NAM/GFS SHOW MLCAPES ACROSS THE INTERIOR W HALF OF
UPPER MI INCREASING TO 1000-2000J/KG THIS AFTN. HOURLY RUC13 RUNS
ARE MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH MLCAPE IN THE 200-350J/KG RANGE
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. THESE LOWER MLCAPES ARE DUE TO MIXED LAYER
DWPTS BEING 5-10F LOWER THAN THE NAM AND GFS. PREFER THESE LOWER
VALUES GIVEN THE OVERALL LIGHT WIND FIELDS TODAY THAT WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE S. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WHICH IS STILL CONTINUING WELL TO THE S IN
IA/SRN WI/NRN IL WILL KEEP BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY HELD UP WELL TO
THE S OF HERE.
IF ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN TOWARD THE WI BORDER...THE
PCPN MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING HRS. OTHERWISE...
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION AND LIKELY MCS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM WRN TROF. GIVEN HOW FAR S THE BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY...BELIEVE NRN END OF CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY SHORTWAVE
MAY STAY COMPLETELY S OF UPPER MI. THOUGHT ABOUT REMOVING POPS
COMPLETLY AFTER ANY EARLY EVENING ISOLD CONVECTION...BUT OPTED TO
JUST TRIM SCHC/CHC POPS BACK CLOSER TO THE WI/MI BORDER AS EVERY
AVBL MODEL SHOWS SOME CONVECTION CROSSING THE BORDER TONIGHT.
PERHAPS THIS NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IS SOMEWHAT TIED TO ILL-DEFINED
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY N OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DRIFT S ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES TODAY/TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF BUILDING HUDSON BAY SFC HIGH
PRES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 555 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
THE 500MB RIDGE JUST TO OUR W WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SFC HIGH OVER
HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE RAIN FREE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE DRIEST AIR
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES FALLING AS LOW AS 25 TO 35 PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...WHICH HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
MORNING FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. THE APPROACHING LOW TO THE W SHOULD
HELP BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE CWA...BUT JUST HOW FAR E THEY WILL GET
DURING THE DAY IS IN QUESTION. CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THEM OVER MAINLY
W UPPER MI THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...AND SLOWLY SWEEP THEM E ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY EXITS E AND A LOW NEARS FROM
S CANADA AND THE N PLAINS. WILL LIKELY NEED TO DIMINISH POPS A BIT
MORE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE LATEST/SLOWER ECMWF AND
CANADIAN RUNS ARE CORRECT...AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW SLIDING IN FROM
THE NW.
THE MAIN 500MB LOW LOOKS TO SINK ESE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED TO TREND BACK ON POPS
FOR WHILE FCST POPS ARE IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT A SOAKING WEEKEND IS NOT ANTICIPATED. DUE THE
LOWER CONFIDENCE OF WHEN AND WHERE SHOWERS /AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS/ COULD DEVELOP...A BROAD 20-40 PERCENT SEEMS
REASONABLE FOR NOW. WILL NEED TO DO SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE
PERIODS AS THE TIME NEARS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE
SOUTH WITH MAINLY JUST LIGHTER SHOWERS BRUSHING UPPER MICHIGAN AS A
DISTURBANCE EDGES TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SINCE MAINLY JUST LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THOUGH
SOME HIGHER END MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE AT KSAW.
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY HEAVY ENOUGH PCPN WILL DEVELOP TO LOWER CIGS
TOWARD IFR IS LOW. WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...EXPECT ALL
TERMINALS TO BE VFR BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
PATCHY FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. 5SM HAS ALREADY
BEEN REPORTED JUST N OF ONTONAGON EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ONLY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...THAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED
BY A RIDGE THIS EVENING...EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
NE...AND FUNNEL OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH GUSTS OF
20-25KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
NORTH DAKOTA APPROACHES NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BRINGING THE RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
906 AM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS FOR
MAINLY THE MORNING PERIOD. BATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
WERE SHIFTING NORTH OF BILLINGS NOW WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE SOUTH. HAVE SHIFTED CATEGORICAL
POPS NORTH OF BILLINGS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. PUSHED THE
SEVERE RISK SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST BASED ON SPC SLIGHT RISK. MOVED
THE RISK INTO TREASURE COUNTY AND FAR EASTERN BIG HORN COUNTY.
FARTHER WEST...CONVECTION WILL FORM BUT BE ON THE LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW SIDE...SO DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER FOR LOCATIONS
FROM BILLINGS WESTWARD. THAT BEING SAID...MAY HAVE SOME SMALL HAIL
IN STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG JET WRAPPING AROUND THE DEEP UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL
PROVIDE STRONG FORCING FOR AGGRESSIVE CONVECTION TODAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE EAST. RAPID REFRESH
INITIATES CONVECTION VERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS BREAKS
OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING SHOULD SHIFT NORTH AND PROVIDE ENOUGH EARLY
DAY SUNSHINE TO IGNITE STORMS AS THE POWERFUL JET MAX MOVES
NORTHEAST. TREAT FOR TORNADOES OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA EXISTS WITH
LOW LCLS AND DYNAMIC SHEAR. SHOULD BE A ACTIVE DAY. TWH
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
HEADS UP EVERYONE...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN ZONES TODAY.
DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST...WITH
VERY DIFFLUENT SSW FLOW OVER OUR REGION. AREA OF COLD TOPS LIFTING
OUT OF WESTERN WYOMING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING ASCENT AS 90 KT
H3 JET COMES OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROF. MODELS NOT PRODUCING
MUCH QPF IN OUR AREA THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE ASCENT AND FACT
THAT OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE MOSTLY EASTERLY PER BLX VAD...FEEL
THAT SHOWERS WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR WEST HALF
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE MADE SOME POP ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. SECONDARY JET STREAK WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY SO FELT
COMFORTABLE IN PAINTING LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR AREA...WITH JET FORCING EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST BY
THIS EVENING AS LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST.
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN OUR EAST TODAY WHERE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING. SHARP
INVERTED SFC TROF WILL SET UP OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES TODAY...AND
ALONG AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE IS WHERE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTS...WITH STRONG SHEAR...CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND
PWATS RISING TO AN INCH OR MORE. LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT...BUT HIGH LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ON NORTHERN FLANK OF
SFC TROF SUGGEST A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. CIPS ANALOGS ALSO SHOW A
COUPLE TORNADOES NEAR BAKER AND EKALAKA IN SIMILAR PATTERNS IN
THE PAST. ONE POSSIBLE ISSUE COULD BE IF THERE IS TOO MUCH CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE DAY...LIMITING THE CAPE WE
CAN ACHIEVE. RAP SOUNDING FOR BHK DOES SHOW A CAP BREAKING BY
MIDDAY. NONETHELESS...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE RIPE FOR SEVERE
STORMS IF DISCRETE CELLS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE OTHER ISSUE
WITH CONVECTION IN OUR EAST TODAY WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAIN. STORM
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 15KTS OR LESS...WITH
TRAINING POSSIBLE ALONG AXIS OF SFC TROF...SO EXPECT MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL
ASCENT PERSISTS THROUGH AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. LATEST FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE FOR OUR EAST IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES/HR OR 1.8 INCHES/3HR.
HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR CARTER...FALLON AND CARTER
COUNTIES.
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY WILL BE IN A MUCH COOLER
AND LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AND THUS NON-SEVERE TODAY. THIS
OBVIOUSLY INCLUDES BILLINGS.
MODELS STILL SUGGEST DRY SLOTTING ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE
WRAPPING BACK INTO OUR WEST IN NW FLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DUE TO
THE STRONGLY CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT WE SHOULD STILL SEE
SOME DIURNAL WEAK SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SPEAKING OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT...700MB TEMPS ARE FALLING
BELOW 0C OVER OUR FAR WESTERN MTNS THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA AND
CRAZY MTNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AS OF 3AM...TEMPS AT 9 KFT
ARE IN THE MID 30S...SO THIS IS PROBABLY A ROUGH SNOW LEVEL AT
THIS TIME. COULD SEE SNOW DOWN TO 7.5-8 KFT BY TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL OBVIOUSLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F ON WEDNESDAY.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM KEEPS A CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL SHOWING UP WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER
RETURNING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVES IN OVER MONTANA BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING HEIGHTS AND ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL SEND PIECES OF ENERGY INTO SC/SE
MT. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVELS MOIST AND AFTERNOON
HEATING ALONG WITH THE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING
ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION. RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
WILL BRING LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
HYSHAM TO ASHLAND. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 65KTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH
BY 05Z TONIGHT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ACR/TWH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 048/066 049/073 051/081 054/085 056/082 055/081
6/T 54/T 33/T 21/U 11/B 23/T 34/T
LVM 061 040/060 042/071 045/078 047/080 048/078 048/078
6/T 55/T 42/T 11/U 23/T 33/T 33/T
HDN 071 049/068 048/074 050/083 053/088 056/084 056/082
6/T 63/T 33/T 21/U 11/U 23/T 33/T
MLS 074 053/070 049/071 052/081 055/085 058/083 057/082
7/T 75/T 34/T 32/T 11/U 22/T 22/T
4BQ 076 052/070 048/072 051/081 053/085 056/083 055/081
4/T 74/T 44/T 21/B 11/U 12/T 22/T
BHK 073 054/069 048/068 049/076 051/081 054/079 054/077
9/T +6/T 34/T 32/T 11/U 12/T 22/T
SHR 070 045/065 043/071 047/080 049/084 052/081 052/080
5/T 63/T 33/T 21/U 11/B 23/T 34/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ZONES
32-33-37.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
556 AM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.UPDATE...
STRONG JET DIVERGENCE FROM THE SOUTH HAS RESULTED IN A LARGE AREA
OF RAIN BETWEEN BILLINGS AND COLUMBUS...LIFTING SOUTH TO NORTH.
HAVE RAISED EARLY MORNING POPS TO COVER THIS. ALREADY WE ARE
SEEING CLOUD TOP COOLING IN WEST CENTRAL WY IN RESPONSE TO NEXT
JET STREAK FROM THE GREAT BASIN. EXPECT WAVES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
THRU TODAY...WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF
OUR CWA. JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
HEADS UP EVERYONE...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN ZONES TODAY.
DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST...WITH
VERY DIFFLUENT SSW FLOW OVER OUR REGION. AREA OF COLD TOPS LIFTING
OUT OF WESTERN WYOMING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING ASCENT AS 90 KT
H3 JET COMES OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROF. MODELS NOT PRODUCING
MUCH QPF IN OUR AREA THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE ASCENT AND FACT
THAT OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE MOSTLY EASTERLY PER BLX VAD...FEEL
THAT SHOWERS WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR WEST HALF
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE MADE SOME POP ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. SECONDARY JET STREAK WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY SO FELT
COMFORTABLE IN PAINTING LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR AREA...WITH JET FORCING EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST BY
THIS EVENING AS LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST.
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN OUR EAST TODAY WHERE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING. SHARP
INVERTED SFC TROF WILL SET UP OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES TODAY...AND
ALONG AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE IS WHERE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
EXISTS...WITH STRONG SHEAR...CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND
PWATS RISING TO AN INCH OR MORE. LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT...BUT HIGH LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ON NORTHERN FLANK OF
SFC TROF SUGGEST A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. CIPS ANALOGS ALSO SHOW A
COUPLE TORNADOES NEAR BAKER AND EKALAKA IN SIMILAR PATTERNS IN
THE PAST. ONE POSSIBLE ISSUE COULD BE IF THERE IS TOO MUCH CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE DAY...LIMITING THE CAPE WE
CAN ACHIEVE. RAP SOUNDING FOR BHK DOES SHOW A CAP BREAKING BY
MIDDAY. NONETHELESS...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE RIPE FOR SEVERE
STORMS IF DISCRETE CELLS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE OTHER ISSUE
WITH CONVECTION IN OUR EAST TODAY WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAIN. STORM
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 15KTS OR LESS...WITH
TRAINING POSSIBLE ALONG AXIS OF SFC TROF...SO EXPECT MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL
ASCENT PERSISTS THROUGH AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. LATEST FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE FOR OUR EAST IS AROUND 1.5 INCHES/HR OR 1.8 INCHES/3HR.
HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR CARTER...FALLON AND CARTER
COUNTIES.
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY WILL BE IN A MUCH COOLER
AND LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AND THUS NON-SEVERE TODAY. THIS
OBVIOUSLY INCLUDES BILLINGS.
MODELS STILL SUGGEST DRY SLOTTING ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE
WRAPPING BACK INTO OUR WEST IN NW FLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DUE TO
THE STRONGLY CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT WE SHOULD STILL SEE
SOME DIURNAL WEAK SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SPEAKING OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT...700MB TEMPS ARE FALLING
BELOW 0C OVER OUR FAR WESTERN MTNS THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE BEARTOOTH...ABSAROKA AND
CRAZY MTNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AS OF 3AM...TEMPS AT 9 KFT
ARE IN THE MID 30S...SO THIS IS PROBABLY A ROUGH SNOW LEVEL AT
THIS TIME. COULD SEE SNOW DOWN TO 7.5-8 KFT BY TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL OBVIOUSLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F ON WEDNESDAY.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM KEEPS A CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL SHOWING UP WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER
RETURNING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVES IN OVER MONTANA BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING INCREASING HEIGHTS AND ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL SEND PIECES OF ENERGY INTO SC/SE
MT. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP LOW LEVELS MOIST AND AFTERNOON
HEATING ALONG WITH THE ENERGY MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING
ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION. RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
WILL BRING LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
MILES CITY TO BROADUS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 65KTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH
BY 05Z TONIGHT. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. RICHMOND
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 048/066 049/073 051/081 054/085 056/082 055/081
8/T 54/T 33/T 21/U 11/B 23/T 34/T
LVM 061 040/060 042/071 045/078 047/080 048/078 048/078
6/T 55/T 42/T 11/U 23/T 33/T 33/T
HDN 071 049/068 048/074 050/083 053/088 056/084 056/082
6/T 63/T 33/T 21/U 11/U 23/T 33/T
MLS 074 053/070 049/071 052/081 055/085 058/083 057/082
7/T 75/T 34/T 32/T 11/U 22/T 22/T
4BQ 076 052/070 048/072 051/081 053/085 056/083 055/081
4/T 74/T 44/T 21/B 11/U 12/T 22/T
BHK 073 054/069 048/068 049/076 051/081 054/079 054/077
9/T +6/T 34/T 32/T 11/U 12/T 22/T
SHR 070 045/065 043/071 047/080 049/084 052/081 052/080
5/T 63/T 33/T 21/U 11/B 23/T 34/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR ZONES 32-33-37.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1005 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM TUESDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A FAIRLY SLACK GRADIENT OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH AN APPARENT WEAK SHEAR AXIS ON WATER
VAPOR MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM VIRGINIA. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...THE LATEST RAP FORECASTS DECENT 850MB THETA-E VALUES
OVER THE AREA...AND 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7.5C/KM
OR A LITTLE HIGHER. COMPARED TO MONDAY...THE 12Z GSO AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LFC BEING HIGHER AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS JUST
SLIGHT MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. 0-6KM SHEAR IS WEAK...10KT OR LESS
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE THE RAP SURFACE DEW POINTS SEEM TO BE
MIXED TOO MUCH LATE IN THE DAY...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SOME
MIXING OF THE DEW POINTS TO MAKE FOR AT LEAST GOOD CIN INTO THE
EARLY-TO-MID AFTERNOON. BETTER LIFT IS SUGGESTED BY THE RAP IN
SOUTHEAST AREAS AFTER 19Z...LEAST NORTHEAST WHERE THE RAP 850MB
THETA-E VALUES AND OVERALL INSTABILITY ARE LOWER.
ALL OF THIS COINCIDES WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST...AND CHANGED
LITTLE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR WRF AND THE NSSL ARW BOTH
NOTE ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY IN A RING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...A HIGHER LFC...AND MOSTLY
CONVERGENCE ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AS FORECAST BY THE RAP...CHANCES
FOR DEEP CONVECTION APPEAR LIMITED BUT STILL POSSIBLE DUE TO HEAT...
INSTABILITY...AND WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES AND
THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT MOVING SOUTH. THE RAP DOES FORECAST ITS
BEST LIFT...IN A RELATIVE SENSE...SOUTHEAST POSSIBLY NEAR THE SEA
BREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE
FORECAST AROUND 1000J/KG...AS IS TYPICAL IN SUCH AN AIR MASS THE
STRONGEST STORM...SHOULD ONE FORM...COULD PRODUCE A SEVERE WIND BUT
COVERAGE OF SUCH SEEMS QUITE ISOLATED. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES
SUGGEST HIGHS ABOUT AS FORECAST...ON THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE AND IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 90S IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO AROUND 100 OVER MUCH
OF THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. -DJF
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION OCCURRING AT SUNSET WILL DIMINISH BY 10-11
PM. UNDER FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT CALM WINDS...MAY SEE POCKETS OF FOG
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVE A HEAVY DOWNPOUR FROM
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S. -WSS
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...
WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE OVERHEAD..WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
INITIATE/SUSTAIN ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED STORM LATE WEDNESDAY-
WEDNESDAY EVENING. BEST CHANCE OF A STORM WILL BE IN THE NW PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT DRIFTS OFF THE BLUE
RIDGE. WE WILL LIKELY SEE OUR HOTTEST TEMPS OF THE YEAR SO FAR
WEDNESDAY AS THICKNESSES REMAIN IN THE 1430S. UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS EXPECT IN THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE MID 90S WILL
BE COMMON. THE ONLY PLACE WHICH MAY SEE A RECORD HIGH TEMP
THREATENED WIL BE RDU WHERE THE RECORD HIGH MAX FOR JUNE 18TH IS 98
SET IN 1944. SIMILAR TO TODAY...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MIX TOWARD THE
SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON...LOWERING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 60S.
THIS YIELDS HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE...VERY
SIMILAR TO THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE. MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
TRANSITION FROM MID LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE REGION LATE
WEEK TO A GENERAL BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS WE
SHOULD SEE A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
REGION... BEFORE LOSING STEAM AND DISSIPATING TO OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER SURFACE COLD
FRONT MAY MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO/CROSS THE REGION VERY LATE IN
THE PERIOD... WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW.
THIS YIELDS... SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY... TRANSITIONING TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE WEST-NORTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW.
AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO RETREAT SOUTHWESTWARD AND
CONVECTIVE CHANCES INCREASE... EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT
TOO. HOWEVER... WE SHOULD STILL SHOULD SEE SOME MID TO UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST THURSDAY AGAIN... MAYBE INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER. HOWEVER...
AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL. THUS... WILL STILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS YIELDS
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. LOWS DURING THE PERIOD
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1005 AM TUESDAY...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. FIRST...EARLY
MORNING LOW END MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND IFR-LIFR VISIBILITY IN FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD...EACH MORNING. THESE
CONDITIONS MOST PROBABLE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. SECOND...LATE DAY-EARLY
EVENING ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY TODAY ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS AS WELL AS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND
LIMITED TO JUST THE FAR NW PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH A LOW
LEVEL MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...DJF/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...DJF/WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1015 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
TODAY SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT. EXPECT DRIER NORTHEASTERLY
SFC FLOW AROUND HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MOST PART ARE ABOVE FORECAST HIGHS...SO AFTERNOON CU
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED. THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW STRATOCU
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ONTARIO/SOUTHEAST MANITOBA THAT IS SLIDING
SOUTHWESTWARD...BUT LATEST RAP 925 HPA RH KEEPS THIS AREA OF
CLOUDS JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH STRONG DRYING ACROSS MOST OF
ND AND NORTHERN MN. REMOVED ALL POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ALL
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEPING PRECIP TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE/SKY/WIND GRIDS...BUT OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
NEEDED TO ADD A MENTION OF FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS ACROSS THE
EXTREME SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS VISIBILITIES AT STAPLES
AND ELBOW LAKE HAVE FALLEN BELOW A MILE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WITH 500MB
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STILL IN EFFECT AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. POPS FOR TODAY LIMITED
TO THE EXTREME SOUTH AS NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP THE MOST MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IN SD. MESOSCALE SOLNS HINT AT ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING S OF
THE CWFA IN E SD AND MOVING ACROSS S MN ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING.
ANY COMPLEX WHICH DEVELOPS IN E MT/ W ND WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
SASKATCHEWAN UNDER IN THE INFLUENCE OF THE APPROACHING 500MB LOW.
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. INITIATION WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AS UPDRAFTS
TAP ML CAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3000J/KG RANGE. BY LATE
AFTERNOON... WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH SOME SEVERE
STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS RISE TO 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT REACHING THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF THE UPPER LOW. 850MB TEMP/MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS 00Z
THURSDAY ON 30 TO 40KT SOUTHERLY LLJ. ELEVATED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH LIFTING TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT. SFC TROUGH TO MOVE INTO MN DURING THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE OVER NORTH
DAKOTA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THIS FEATURE...WHICH HAS RAISED
CONFIDENCE. THE BEST SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE ON FRIDAY...WITH
LOWERING CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD (AS THE UPPER
LOW PROPAGATES EASTWARD). TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
VFR TODAY...LIGHT WINDS. SCT-BKN CIRRUS EXPECTED.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
918 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
OSCILLATE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WAVES OF CONVECTION REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WHERE BETTER FOCUSING MECHANISM AND UPPER ENERGY PRESENT. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE OUR AIRMASS. MODELS INDICATE
REMAINS OF MCS OVER LMIC/NRN IL AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST
NEAR LAKE ERIE LATER TODAY. BAND OF CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LAKE ERIE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS THE
AIRMASS DESTABILIZES WITH FOCUS CLOSER TO LAKE ERIE.
A VERY WARM TO MARGINALLY HOT DAY IN STORE WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 90
SW HALF TO MID 80S IN THE FAR NE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE LOCATION OF QUASI STATIONARY
FRONT. CURRENTLY APPEARS HUNG UP ALONG SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF LAKE
ERIE INTO NW PA. MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AND MOVING ALONG BOUNDARY ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE DUE TO INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR. NAM FORECASTS CAPES BETWEEN 2000 J/KG TO 3000 J/KG AND
SHOULD BE ENOUGH BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION.
SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT WEDNESDAY. NAM DROPS FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF HOLD OFF THE FRONT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR
FORECAST USED THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY JUST KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING AS MODELS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO TRACK AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENCE IS THE WAY TO GO TODAY AS ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOOKED HARD TO FIND A REASON TO GO WITH A DRY
PERIOD BUT FAILED. WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO AT LEAST CHANCE POPS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD APPEAR
TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY. A JUICY AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S WHICH IS JUST A TAD WARMER
THAN NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIP REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. LATEST HRRR MODEL
SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS LOWER MI AND NW OH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS LIKE AS REASONABLE OF A SCENARIO AS ANY
SO WILL GO WITH A FEW HOURS OF TEMPO ALL AREAS BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. THE PATCHY FOG AND
HAZE SHOULD BURN OFF IN A COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MID AND HIGH CIGS
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY. SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. S TO SW FLOW
WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS MORNING FOG/MIST.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS OVER LAND WILL GET RIPPING TODAY BUT COOLER LAKE ERIE SHOULD
HOLD THE WINDS DOWN OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TILL A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY. THE FLOW
WILL BECOME VARIABLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL COME BACK NORTH
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY CAUSING THE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. IT APPEARS SUSTAINED WINDS MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL BE UNDER 15 KNOTS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE NEEDING ANY HEADLINES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
722 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
OSCILLATE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOUTHERN PORTION OF MCS HAS WEAKENED AS MOVED INTO LESS SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION SURGED AHEAD WITH UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITH A SECOND MCS NOW INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
SAID ALL THAT TO SAY THAT I BACKED OFF ON TIMING OF CONVECTION AND
LOWERED POPS FROM LIKELY TO CHANCE. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
MCS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS SLOWING DOWN AND WEAKENING AS IT
COMES INTO LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. MAJORITY OF THE LINE WILL MOVE
ACROSS SE LOWER MICHIGAN STILL UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE TSRA WILL
EXTEND. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS. FOR TIMING LINE
LOOKS TO REACH NW OHIO BY MID MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE LOCATION OF QUASI STATIONARY
FRONT. CURRENTLY APPEARS HUNG UP ALONG SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF LAKE
ERIE INTO NW PA. MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING TONIGHT
AND MOVING ALONG BOUNDARY ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE DUE TO INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR. NAM FORECASTS CAPES BETWEEN 2000 J/KG TO 3000 J/KG AND
SHOULD BE ENOUGH BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION.
SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT WEDNESDAY. NAM DROPS FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF HOLD OFF THE FRONT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR
FORECAST USED THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY JUST KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING AS MODELS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO TRACK AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERSISTENCE IS THE WAY TO GO TODAY AS ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LOOKED HARD TO FIND A REASON TO GO WITH A DRY
PERIOD BUT FAILED. WILL NEED TO HANG ON TO AT LEAST CHANCE POPS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD APPEAR
TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY. A JUICY AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S WHICH IS JUST A TAD WARMER
THAN NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIP REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. LATEST HRRR MODEL
SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS LOWER MI AND NW OH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS LIKE AS REASONABLE OF A SCENARIO AS ANY
SO WILL GO WITH A FEW HOURS OF TEMPO ALL AREAS BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. THE PATCHY FOG AND
HAZE SHOULD BURN OFF IN A COUPLE OF HOURS WITH MID AND HIGH CIGS
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY. SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER DESTABILAZION. S TO SW FLOW
WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS MORNING FOG/MIST.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS OVER LAND WILL GET RIPPING TODAY BUT COOLER LAKE ERIE SHOULD
HOLD THE WINDS DOWN OFFSHORE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TILL A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY. THE FLOW
WILL BECOME VARIABLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH NORTHEAST FLOW
DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL COME BACK NORTH
SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY CAUSING THE FLOW TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. IT APPEARS SUSTAINED WINDS MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD
WILL BE UNDER 15 KNOTS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE NEEDING ANY HEADLINES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
813 AM PDT TUE JUN 17 2014
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO REFLECT AN INCREASE
IN POPS AND QPF FOR THIS AREA DURING THE MORNING. OTHERWISE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO RAP AROUND MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA TODAY AND THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPDT AND
KALW. LARGE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL WRAP RAIN INTO EASTERN OREGON AND
SE WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AFFECTING MOSTLY KALW AND
KPDT. AT THOSE SITES COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SCT-BKN CEILINGS AT 4-6 THOUSAND FEET AND MID AND
HIGH OVC ABOVE. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 10-15 KT...EXCEPT 15 TO
25 KT AT KDLS TODAY. 78
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 425 AM PDT TUE JUN 17 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE REGION. THE CENTER OF THE
LOW IS OVER NORTHEAST OREGON THIS MORNING WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD AND BE OVER CENTRAL IDAHO BY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF LOBES OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. THE FIRST IS
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND WILL BE SWEEPING
ACROSS OREGON THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND
IS MOVING FROM WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN IDAHO INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL DROP INTO SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
PRODUCING A PERIOD OF STEADY PRECIPITATION. THE 24 HOUR
PRECIPITATION TOTAL FOR THIS AREA COULD SEE A QUARTER TO HALF AN
INCH OF RAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME TOTALS HIGHER THAN HALF AN INCH IN THE BLUE AND WALLOWA
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET SO COULD SEE A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE HIGHER PEAKS
AROUND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF
INTO WESTERN MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION DWINDLING OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY BUT BEGIN
TO REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND BE REPLACED BY A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FLOW WILL BE SPLIT BETWEEN WEST AND
SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL REBOUND ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM
WEDNESDAYS. INITIALLY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...AND SHORT LIVED...BUT IT WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A MUCH LARGER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS
WILL PROVIDE WARMER AND POTENTIALLY DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
COOLER AIR...WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL LIKELY KEEP CONDITIONS WARM...BUT
MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIN UP WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE THE LOW AWAY
FROM THE OR/WA COAST BACK OVER THE PACIFIC...DUE TO THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. BUT THE POSITION OF THE LOW
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE TO BE
TRANSPORTED OVER THE AREA...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE
ANTICIPATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THUNDER IS EXPECTED
MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON...AND PERHAPS CENTRAL
OREGON AT TIMES. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT THE WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA COULD TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE NORMAL
DIURNAL PERIOD...AND BREEZY SURFACE WINDS COULD RESULT FROM THESE
DISTURBANCES TOO...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT
CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE INTO THE FORECAST. OVERALL DESPITE THE
COOLER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEST TO DOMINATE AND PROVIDE WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 80S...AND
POSSIBLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S BY MONDAY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...INCREASING TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SUNDAY ONWARD.
EXPECT MOUNTAIN HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WEBER
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS UNDER STRONGER
SHOWERS...WILL AMEND TAFS AS NEEDED SINCE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. WEST
WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP AGAIN AFTER 15Z TODAY. CEILINGS WILL BE
MOSTLY SCT-BKN AT 4-6KFT AND BKN-OVC AT 8-10KFT. WEBER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 62 49 76 51 / 50 70 10 0
ALW 62 53 77 55 / 60 80 20 10
PSC 68 53 81 54 / 60 60 10 0
YKM 71 51 79 52 / 20 10 0 0
HRI 67 51 79 52 / 40 60 10 0
ELN 70 51 78 52 / 20 10 10 0
RDM 63 36 74 40 / 20 10 10 0
LGD 52 46 68 46 / 60 90 30 10
GCD 54 42 71 45 / 40 70 10 0
DLS 70 53 78 55 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
97/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
755 AM PDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.UPDATE...THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES TO REFLECT AN INCREASE
IN POPS AND QPF FOR THIS AREA DURING THE MORNING. OTHERWISE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO RAP AROUND MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA TODAY AND THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 425 AM PDT TUE JUN 17 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE REGION. THE CENTER OF THE
LOW IS OVER NORTHEAST OREGON THIS MORNING WHICH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD AND BE OVER CENTRAL IDAHO BY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF LOBES OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. THE FIRST IS
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND WILL BE SWEEPING
ACROSS OREGON THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND
IS MOVING FROM WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN IDAHO INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL DROP INTO SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
PRODUCING A PERIOD OF STEADY PRECIPITATION. THE 24 HOUR
PRECIPITATION TOTAL FOR THIS AREA COULD SEE A QUARTER TO HALF AN
INCH OF RAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME TOTALS HIGHER THAN HALF AN INCH IN THE BLUE AND WALLOWA
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 6000 FEET SO COULD SEE A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE WALLOWA MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE HIGHER PEAKS
AROUND THE BLUE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF
INTO WESTERN MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION DWINDLING OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND COMING TO AN END WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY BUT BEGIN
TO REBOUND ON WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND BE REPLACED BY A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. FLOW WILL BE SPLIT BETWEEN WEST AND
SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL REBOUND ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM
WEDNESDAYS. INITIALLY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...AND SHORT LIVED...BUT IT WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A MUCH LARGER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS
WILL PROVIDE WARMER AND POTENTIALLY DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE GULF OF ALASKA...WITH
COOLER AIR...WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL LIKELY KEEP CONDITIONS WARM...BUT
MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIN UP WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE THE LOW AWAY
FROM THE OR/WA COAST BACK OVER THE PACIFIC...DUE TO THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. BUT THE POSITION OF THE LOW
WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE TO BE
TRANSPORTED OVER THE AREA...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE
ANTICIPATE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THUNDER IS EXPECTED
MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON...AND PERHAPS CENTRAL
OREGON AT TIMES. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT THE WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA COULD TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE NORMAL
DIURNAL PERIOD...AND BREEZY SURFACE WINDS COULD RESULT FROM THESE
DISTURBANCES TOO...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND MODEL AGREEMENT IS NOT
CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE INTO THE FORECAST. OVERALL DESPITE THE
COOLER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WEST TO DOMINATE AND PROVIDE WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 80S...AND
POSSIBLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S BY MONDAY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...INCREASING TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SUNDAY ONWARD.
EXPECT MOUNTAIN HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WEBER
AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS UNDER STRONGER
SHOWERS...WILL AMEND TAFS AS NEEDED SINCE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. WEST
WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP AGAIN AFTER 15Z TODAY. CEILINGS WILL BE
MOSTLY SCT-BKN AT 4-6KFT AND BKN-OVC AT 8-10KFT. WEBER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 62 49 76 51 / 50 70 10 0
ALW 62 53 77 55 / 60 80 20 10
PSC 68 53 81 54 / 60 60 10 0
YKM 71 51 79 52 / 20 10 0 0
HRI 67 51 79 52 / 40 60 10 0
ELN 70 51 78 52 / 20 10 10 0
RDM 63 36 74 40 / 20 10 10 0
LGD 52 46 68 46 / 60 90 30 10
GCD 54 42 71 45 / 40 70 10 0
DLS 70 53 78 55 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
97/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
538 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH GUST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY. CONVECTION
REMAINS A CONCERN FOR TODAY MAINLY AT KAMA AND POSSIBLY AT KGUY.
THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CAUSE CONFIDENCE
ISSUES ON INCLUDING IN PREVAILING CONDITIONS. SHOULD ANY CONVECTION
IMPACT THE TERMINALS IT IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AFTER 18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014/
DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE HAS RETREATED OVERNIGHT...AND HAS CLEARED ALL BUT FAR
NORTHWEST CORNER OF FORECAST AREA. RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTS RICH
MOISTURE EAST OF DRYLINE...WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS IN THE 12 TO 17
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. VAD WIND PROFILES FROM KAMA
88D DEPICT EXISTING SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 5000 FEET OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...SO DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE. THUS...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL BUT NORTHWEST PART OF
FORECAST AREA.
WITH DEEP...RICH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SLIP INTO THE AREA AND EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. 03
COCKRELL
FIRE WEATHER...
20-FOOT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
LIKELY MEET ELEVATED AND/OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER METEOROLOGICAL
CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COMBINED PANHANDLES TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND SUBSEQUENT VEGETATIVE
GREEN UP IN THESE AREAS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW. THEREFORE...
THE ISSUANCE OF ANY FIRE WEATHER BULLETINS IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
LIGHTER WINDS...HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND OPPORTUNITIES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 03
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
14/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1021 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE BEING SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH HEADS EAST
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY WEEKS END AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1020 AM EDT TUESDAY...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
AND A SHARPENING PIEDMONT TROUGH. DEWPOINTS SHOULD AGAIN MIX BACK
INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON...AND COMBINED WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
90S IN THE PIEDMONT...MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG IS EXPECTED WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A CAP. HOWEVER...THERE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE ANY
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND ANTICYCLONE ALOFT TO AID IN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...SO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT INTO THE PIEDMONT WITH RESULTING
COLD POOLS AND WEAK STEERING FLOW. HI-RES WRFS AND HRRR SHOW SOME
BETTER FOCUS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE AREA WITH A GENERAL
SMATTERING TO THE NORTH. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SHOW
THIS AREAL TREND. DCAPE WILL AGAIN BE HIGH SO THE MAIN THREAT FROM
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID DAY WITH WESTERN RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE PER THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW AS EXPECT HIGHS 1-3 DEGREES WARMER GIVEN
SLIGHT 85H WARMING AND PERHAPS A BIT LESS CONVECTION UNDER
SUNSHINE.
APPEARS ANY EARLY CONVECTION TO QUICKLY FADE PER LACK OF UPPER
SUPPORT WITH SKIES TURNING PC TO MOSTLY CLEAR ALLOWING MORE
PATCHY FOG LATE UNDER THE RIDGING. LOWS AGAIN BASICALLY IN THE 60S
EXCEPT LIKELY STAYING ABOVE 70 IN SPOTS GIVEN MOISTURE AROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAIN JUST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH AND AN 850 MB HIGH WILL BE VERTICALLY STACKED AND CENTERED
OVER TENNESSEE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST...THEN WEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE 850 MB HIGH. THIS
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL PUSH RICH MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION.
THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE BEST CAPPING
INVERSION WEST OF THE AREA WILL YIELD DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SWODY2 HAS PLACED
THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO OUR NORTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
EASTWARD TO NEW JERSEY WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS
INVOF OF WARM FRONT WITH BEST DYNAMICS. WITH WEST WINDS AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 C...HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
THE MID 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE
PIEDMONT. RECORD HIGHS LISTED IN CLIMATE SECTION. NO REAL ESCAPE
FROM THE HEAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH
READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN
THE PIEDMONT.
ON THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL
SEND A BACKDOOR FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST TO THE MID
90S IN THE SOUTHEAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. USED HPCGUIDE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND
PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE AS UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS WHILE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. STAYING CLOSE TO WHAT WE
FORECASTED YESTERDAY IN TERMS OF KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE...DUE TO TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES RACING ALONG THE SRN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. ALL IN ALL EVEN THOUGH WILL HAVE POPS NO
HIGHER THAN 50-55...STILL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AT LEAST MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME.
WILL BE CONCERNED WITH MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND TRAINING
ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING IF IT TRACKS OVER THE SAME SPOT. STILL TOO EARLY TO MENTION
IN THE HWO...BUT BEARS WATCHING. AS THE AIRMASS HEATS UP PRIOR TO
THIS...PLENTY OF FUEL TO ADD TO THE PROVERBIAL FIRE ONCE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT LEAST FRI-SAT TO SEE
SOME SVR STORM THREAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS. CURRENTLY SPC
HIGHLIGHTING LOW PREDICTABILITY GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR AND TIMING OF
THE WAVES.
MODELS DIFFER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF FASTER
NOW WITH FROPA AND SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE EAST BY MONDAY. THIS
MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING INCONSISTENCY SO WILL LEAN TOWARD 00Z GFS/06Z
GFS AND WPC FORECAST. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE FRONT AND KEEP US IN A STICKY AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL BE STAYING
ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION UPSTREAM AND STORMS
OVERHEAD CAN HINDER THE HEAT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S...NEAR 70 SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT TUESDAY...
WILL INIT UNDER MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF
PATCHY FOG THAT SHOULD KEEP SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS
KLWB/KBCB IN MVFR VSBYS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE RAPIDLY
CLEARING.
ONCE THE FOG CLEARS...SHOULD SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY
WITH SCTD/BKN CU GIVING WAY TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSRA IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT APPEARS COVERAGE MAY BE EVEN MORE ISOLATED THAN
MONDAY. HOWEVER KEEPING VCTS FOR MOST TAFS AFTER 19Z/3PM FOR NOW
TO COINCIDE WITH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY WITH LESS SUPPORT AND
WEST WINDS DIMINISHING THE TSRA THREAT AT KLWB DOWN TO KBCB. ANY
OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS INCLUDING STRONG WINDS/HAIL IF A TSRA
DIRECTLY IMPACTS A TERMINAL LOCATION. CONVECTION QUICKLY FADES
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO THAT OF LAST
NIGHT EXPECTED WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AROUND BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH AN EVER-INCREASING THREAT FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MVFR BR TO LOCALLY LIFR
FG WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS FOLLOWING
EVENING CONVECTION.
BEST DAILY FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID TO LATE
MORNING AFTER FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF/LIFT...AND BEFORE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO OFFER THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES AND THEN STALLS OVER/NEAR THE AREA. THIS WILL PRESENT
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
LOCATIONS RECORDS (6/17) (6/18)
ROANOKE 96/1944 97/1925
LYNCHBURG 96/1944 96/1944
DANVILLE 99/1981 96/2007
BLACKSBURG 88/1994 88/2007
BLUEFIELD 86/2007 90/2007
LEWISBURG 86/1996 88/2007
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER AT MOUNT JEFFERSON REMAINS OFF
THE AIR THIS MORNING. THIS IS STATION WNG588 ON A FREQUENCY OF
162.525 MHZ. TECHNICIANS WILL BE RETURNING TO THE SITE THIS
MORNING WITH EXPECTATION OF A RETURN TO SERVICE AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/BLS
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/PM
CLIMATE...JH
EQUIPMENT...JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
703 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE BEING SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER TROUGH HEADS EAST
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER
TURNS MORE ACTIVE BY WEEKS END AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SAGS IN FROM
THE NORTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT TUESDAY...
OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
5H RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SE RESULTING IN A WEAK WEST TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER THE REGION REMAINS JUST FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO ALLOW PARCELS TO BREAK THROUGH THE
CAP ALOFT ESPCLY WHERE ORIGINATED BY OROGRAPHICS/DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING...AND THEN DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP
FOR ADDED ISOLATED CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
PASSING OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM MONDAY AND EVEN LESS SUPPORT
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE ALOFT TODAY. HOWEVER MOST GUIDANCE
AGAIN SHOWING INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE
WITH OUTFLOW WORKING MORE NORTH THAN EAST TODAY...PERHAPS
RESULTING IN A FEW MORE TSRA ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST PER
LATEST HRRR AND HIRES ARW. INSTABILITY AGAIN LOOKS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE PER FORECAST 2-3K J/KG CAPES SOUTH-EAST AND DRY AIR
ALOFT OVERTOP STEEP LAPSES. HOWEVER LIGHT LOW LEVEL WEST WINDS MAY
TEND TO DETER COVERAGE FROM THE NEW RIVER VALLEY NORTH TO
GREENBRIER WHERE MODELS DO SHOW LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. THUS AFTER
SOME PATCHY FOG HAVE BASICALLY SHOTGUNNED IN SCATTERED POPS WITH
FOCUS MORE IN AREAS THAT SAW LESS RAINFALL ON MONDAY. OTRW
20-30ISH POPS INTO EARLY EVENING WITH ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE
GIVEN HIGH DCAPES AND POTENTIAL CLUSTERING OF STORMS UNDER WEAK
STEERING ALOFT.
ANOTHER HOT/HUMID DAY WITH WESTERN RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE PER THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW AS EXPECT HIGHS 1-3 DEGREES WARMER GIVEN
SLIGHT 85H WARMING AND PERHAPS A BIT LESS CONVECTION UNDER
SUNSHINE.
APPEARS ANY EARLY CONVECTION TO QUICKLY FADE PER LACK OF UPPER
SUPPORT WITH SKIES TURNING PC TO MOSTLY CLEAR ALLOWING MORE
PATCHY FOG LATE UNDER THE RIDGING. LOWS AGAIN BASICALLY IN THE 60S
EXCEPT LIKELY STAYING ABOVE 70 IN SPOTS GIVEN MOISTURE AROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAIN JUST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH AND AN 850 MB HIGH WILL BE VERTICALLY STACKED AND CENTERED
OVER TENNESSEE. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST...THEN WEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE 850 MB HIGH. THIS
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL PUSH RICH MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION.
THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE BEST CAPPING
INVERSION WEST OF THE AREA WILL YIELD DAYTIME AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SWODY2 HAS PLACED
THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO OUR NORTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
EASTWARD TO NEW JERSEY WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS
INVOF OF WARM FRONT WITH BEST DYNAMICS. WITH WEST WINDS AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 C...HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
THE MID 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE
PIEDMONT. RECORD HIGHS LISTED IN CLIMATE SECTION. NO REAL ESCAPE
FROM THE HEAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH
READINGS FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN
THE PIEDMONT.
ON THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL
SEND A BACKDOOR FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE WEST TO THE MID
90S IN THE SOUTHEAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS WARM
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. USED HPCGUIDE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND
PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE AS UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS WHILE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. STAYING CLOSE TO WHAT WE
FORECASTED YESTERDAY IN TERMS OF KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE
RANGE...DUE TO TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES RACING ALONG THE SRN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. ALL IN ALL EVEN THOUGH WILL HAVE POPS NO
HIGHER THAN 50-55...STILL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AT LEAST MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME.
WILL BE CONCERNED WITH MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND TRAINING
ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING IF IT TRACKS OVER THE SAME SPOT. STILL TOO EARLY TO MENTION
IN THE HWO...BUT BEARS WATCHING. AS THE AIRMASS HEATS UP PRIOR TO
THIS...PLENTY OF FUEL TO ADD TO THE PROVERBIAL FIRE ONCE CONVECTION
TAKES PLACE...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT LEAST FRI-SAT TO SEE
SOME SVR STORM THREAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS. CURRENTLY SPC
HIGHLIGHTING LOW PREDICTABILITY GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR AND TIMING OF
THE WAVES.
MODELS DIFFER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF FASTER
NOW WITH FROPA AND SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE EAST BY MONDAY. THIS
MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING INCONSISTENCY SO WILL LEAN TOWARD 00Z GFS/06Z
GFS AND WPC FORECAST. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE FRONT AND KEEP US IN A STICKY AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL BE STAYING
ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH BLOWOFF FROM CONVECTION UPSTREAM AND STORMS
OVERHEAD CAN HINDER THE HEAT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S...NEAR 70 SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT TUESDAY...
WILL INIT UNDER MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF
PATCHY FOG THAT SHOULD KEEP SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS
KLWB/KBCB IN MVFR VSBYS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE RAPIDLY
CLEARING.
ONCE THE FOG CLEARS...SHOULD SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY
WITH SCTD/BKN CU GIVING WAY TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSRA IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT APPEARS COVERAGE MAY BE EVEN MORE ISOLATED THAN
MONDAY. HOWEVER KEEPING VCTS FOR MOST TAFS AFTER 19Z/3PM FOR NOW
TO COINCIDE WITH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY WITH LESS SUPPORT AND
WEST WINDS DIMINISHING THE TSRA THREAT AT KLWB DOWN TO KBCB. ANY
OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS INCLUDING STRONG WINDS/HAIL IF A TSRA
DIRECTLY IMPACTS A TERMINAL LOCATION. CONVECTION QUICKLY FADES
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO THAT OF LAST
NIGHT EXPECTED WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AROUND BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH AN EVER-INCREASING THREAT FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
CONVECTION. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MVFR BR TO LOCALLY LIFR
FG WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS FOLLOWING
EVENING CONVECTION.
BEST DAILY FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID TO LATE
MORNING AFTER FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF/LIFT...AND BEFORE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION REDEVELOPS.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO OFFER THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES AND THEN STALLS OVER/NEAR THE AREA. THIS WILL PRESENT
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
LOCATIONS RECORDS (6/17) (6/18)
ROANOKE 96/1944 97/1925
LYNCHBURG 96/1944 96/1944
DANVILLE 99/1981 96/2007
BLACKSBURG 88/1994 88/2007
BLUEFIELD 86/2007 90/2007
LEWISBURG 86/1996 88/2007
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER AT MOUNT JEFFERSON REMAINS OFF
THE AIR THIS MORNING. THIS IS STATION WNG588 ON A FREQUENCY OF
162.525 MHZ. TECHNICIANS WILL BE RETURNING TO THE SITE THIS
MORNING WITH EXPECTATION OF A RETURN TO SERVICE AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...JH/PM
CLIMATE...JH
EQUIPMENT...JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
224 PM PDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION AND RESULT IN
DRIER CONDITIONS AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW COLDER SIERRA
VALLEYS WILL DROP NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT WITH A
FEW 30S IN OUTLYING COLDER VALLEYS IN WESTERN NEVADA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO PARTS
OF NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV HAS EXITED WITH SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR ALOFT HELPING TO ERODE CUMULUS FIELD ALONG THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA WHICH WILL TRACK MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NV ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR
A FEW SHOWERS. THE NAM CONTINUES TO HOLD A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS
TOGETHER ON THE FAR WESTERN EDGE AS IT APPROACHES RENO 00Z-03Z.
OTHER MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR DO NOT SHOW THIS EXTENSION.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT WILL INCLUDE IT FOR AREAS JUST NORTH OF RENO
INCLUDING PYRAMID LAKE. BEST FORCING/CONVERGENCE IS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL-NORTHEAST NV WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE BASIN AND RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
DECREASE. THE AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY DRY AND THUS TEMPERATURES
MAY NOT GET AS LOW AS SOME OF THE COLDEST MOS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER,
COLDER SIERRA VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE A LIGHT FREEZE WITH EVEN
SOME OF THE OUTLYING COLDER WESTERN NV VALLEYS DROPPING INTO THE
30S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF YOUR LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 40
DEGREES, YOU MAY WANT TO CONSIDER TAKING SOME GENERAL PRECAUTIONS
TO PROTECT SENSITIVE PLANTS.
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY FOR A FAST
WARMUP. TEMPERATURES IN COLDER SIERRA VALLEYS WILL NOT BE AS COLD
THURSDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH THEY COULD STILL GET DOWN TO NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR ONE MORE NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN
JUST SHY OF NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY BUT REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY WITH 70S SIERRA VALLEYS AND 80S WESTERN NV. HOHMANN
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE REGION WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED BETWEEN A NORTHEAST PACIFIC TROUGH AND ROCKIES/NORTHERN
PLAINS RIDGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH A FEW MINOR
DISTURBANCES PERIODICALLY MOVING OVERHEAD.
THE GFS REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THE FRIDAY DISTURBANCE ALTHOUGH
EVEN IT IS SHIFTING NORTH WITH THE BEST LOW-MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
AND FORCING OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, NORTHWESTERN NEVADA
AND OREGON. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF/GEM LOOK VERY WEAK AND FLAT WITH
FRIDAY`S DISTURBANCE WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
OTHER THING OF SOME CONCERN FRIDAY WILL BE WINDS FOR NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 INTO FAR WESTERN NEVADA
(SIERRA FRONT). GRADIENTS INCREASE WITH THE MOS HIGH TEMPERATURE
BETWEEN THE SIERRA (TRUCKEE) AND WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA (LOVELOCK)
IMPLYING INCREASED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE FOR
THE SIERRA FRONT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA
WILL REMAIN IN FLAT SOUTHWEST-WEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING THE
TYPICAL DAILY ZEPHYR BREEZES FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA AND OUT INTO
WESTERN NEVADA. DEPENDING ON THE SMALL-SCALE, LOW CONFIDENCE
DETAILS OF ANY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING OVERHEAD THE ZEPHYR
MAY BE PERIODICALLY ENHANCED WITH AN INCREASED FIRE CONCERN.
SNYDER
&&
.AVIATION...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE, CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR KAAT, IS MOVING AROUND
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO KICK OFF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH AND
EAST OF KRNO, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST AND NORTH OF A
GERLACH TO PYRAMID LAKE TO KNFL LINE THROUGH SUNSET. BRIEF HIGHER
TERRAIN OBSCURATION, SMALL HAIL (LESS THAN HALF-INCH) AND WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 30 KTS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
LATE TONIGHT, THE MARTIS VALLEY NEAR KTRK COULD SEE PATCHY FOG.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS (LESS THAN 8 KTS)
WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT AND FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
CALIFORNIA. SNYDER
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
401 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
.WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY TOMORROW WITH A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. LESS
HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
AS OF 401 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS SITUATED OVER LAKE
HURON. A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM IS OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...WITH A COLD TRAILING ACROSS MICHIGAN AND INTO THE
MIDWEST. A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED EASTWARD FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO...AND THIS FRONT...AIDED BY A LAKE
BREEZE OFF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...HAS DEVELOPED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY.
ALTHOUGH OUR REGION HAS BEEN RAIN FREE AND MAINLY SUNNY SO FAR
TODAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
EVENING AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS ACTIVITY MOVE
TOWARDS OUR AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S /AND EVEN A
FEW LOW 90S IN SPOTS/ AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...IT IS
FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVER OUR CWA.
ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL STORMS OVER CENTRAL NY MAY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS
THEY APPROACH OUR WESTERN AREAS...WE WILL BE AT RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE T-STORMS LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS UPSTATE NY. WE MAY LOSE SOME OF
THE SFC BASED INSTABILITY CURRENTLY IN PLACE...AS A NOCTURNAL
INVERSION BEGINS TO DEVELOP WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
STILL...WE MAY BE AT RISK FOR SEVERE T-STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT...AS HIGH RES MODELS /SUCH AS OUR LOCAL WRF AND
THE 3KM HRRR AND 4KM NAM/ ALL SHOW AN ORGANIZED LINE SUCH AS A
SQUALL LINE OR QLCS MOVING E-SE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SPC CONTINUES A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH A 30% CONTOUR FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
THE MAIN TIMING WOULD HAVE ACTIVITY REACHING OUR NW ZONES AROUND
00Z-02Z AND EXITING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION
BETWEEN 06Z-08Z. IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING ON ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD CONCERNS. THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO MOVE
FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND RAIN SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS /AT MOST/
AT ANY ONE LOCATION.
IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY AND WARM OVERNIGHT...WITH TEMPS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING QUITE HIGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTION OF OUR
CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...AND CROSSING THE FAR
SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE MAY BE
A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS AS WELL...AS A VORT MAX SWINGING AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC ALLOWS FOR SOME LIFT. IT WON/T BE QUITE AS
WARM ON WEDNESDAY AS IT IS ON TUESDAY...WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR
VALLEY AREAS...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60...AS THE MOIST AIR WON/T BE COMPLETELY PUSHED
OUT JUST YET.
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SETTLE FURTHER SOUTH...A MUCH MORE
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA BUILDS INTO UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A LONG STRETCH FOR DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER FOR WED
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WHILE MIN TEMPS WON/T BE TOO COOL JUST YET
FOR WED NIGHT /MID 50S TO LOW 60S/...MANY AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN
THE 40S TO LOW 50S ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THURSDAY...AND EVEN
COOLER FOR FRIDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAIR AND DRY AT THE START AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER JAMES/HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
EVEN THOUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
POPS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 15 PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS DRIER SOLUTIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY SO POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO AROUND 30 TO 35
PERCENT DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT 50 TO 60.
LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR TSTMS DURING THAT PERIOD. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. FAIR WEATHER RETURNS ON
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM
CANADA. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE
MVFR/IFR FLYING CONDITIONS ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LATER FOG/LOW STRATUS TONIGHT.
THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AND SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INITIALLY PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 4-8 KNOTS.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BE A LINE/CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. HAVE PLACED TEMPO GROUPS AT
KGFL AND KALB FROM 00Z TO 03Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...WITH THE CONVECTION CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
ABOUT 06Z. DID NOT PLACE TEMPO GROUPS AT KPOU AND KPSF AS ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD IMPACT THESE TAF SITES AFTER 03Z.
BEHIND THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE A
TRAILING REGION OF LIGHT RAIN AS WELL AND HAVE KEPT -SHRA AND VCSH
IN THE TAFS FROM 06Z TO 12Z.
MVFR/IFR FOG/LOW STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEHIND THE
CONVECTION AS WELL...WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. THE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE OF IFR FOG IS AT KGFL AND KPSF...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT IFR CONDITIONS AT KALB AS WELL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS
AND IF WINDS CAN SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT GENERALLY AROUND 5 KNOTS.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO THE TAF SITES TOWARDS DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE MVFR CEILINGS MAY HANG ON UNTIL THE
MID-MORNING HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD SEE BROKEN
CUMULUS AROUND 4-6 KFT WITH A NORTHWEST WIND BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO
SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A WETTING RAINFALL TONIGHT AS A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE STILL MAY BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN A FEW SPOTS. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT ON WED AFTN WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT ON WED NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS. WITH SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER IN PLACE...RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AFTN WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THERE MAY
BE AN INITIAL LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A
PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL BEHIND IT. AT ONE
LOCATION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW
HOURS AT THE MOST. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...LOCALIZED ISSUES...SUCH AS IN URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING AT
THIS TIME.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS RELATIVELY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. A WARM FRONT MAY RETURN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
TOMORROW WITH A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. LESS HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 144 PM EDT...VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. SKIES ARE GENERALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY...WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL CU /MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/
AND SOME PASSING CIRRUS CLOUDS.
A SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
IS PRODUCING SEVERAL AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS. ONE AREA IS CURRENTLY
OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND WESTERN NY...WITH MORE BEHIND IT ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN. THE 3KM HRRR AND OUR LOCAL HIRES WRF KEEP OUR AREA DRY
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY START TO
INCREASE BY LATE TODAY.
A FEW SPOTS MAY COME CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES...OTHERWISE HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
BOTH GLOBAL AND HIRES MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...ROUGHLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 07Z. SFC LOW
PRESSURE LOOKS TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AND A SFC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS OUR AREA...WITH A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS UPSTATE NY. WHILE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET FOR MOST AREAS
TONIGHT...THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW STRONG WILL CONVECTION BE.
THERE IS DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS SUGGESTING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH JUST HOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
BE. WITH A NOCTURNAL INVERSION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...IT TAKE
STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AT THE
SURFACE. OUR LOCAL WRF DOES SHOW THUNDERSTORMS FORMING INTO A
LINE...SO IT/S POSSIBLE THAT A SQUALL LINE/QLCS MAY BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. SPC HAS OUR REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
TSTMS...WITH A 30% CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS. ANY CONVECTION LOOKS
TO TRACK FROM THE W-NW TOWARDS THE E-SE ACROSS OUR AREA. IT WILL
REMAIN MUGGY AND WARM OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXPECTED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AND
TRACKING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. IT NOW APPEARS
THAT WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHC OF A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR FAR SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA...AND ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SOUTH OF OUR REGION. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SHOWER ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS DURING THE DAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SWINGS
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER QUEBEC. IT WILL STILL BE
FAIRLY HUMID...AS THE MOIST AIR WON/T BE COMPLETELY PUSHED OUT THE
REGION JUST YET. TEMPS LOOK MAINLY IN THE 80S...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE
AS WARM AS TUESDAY/S HIGHS.
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH FAIR
WEATHER BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO START OUT FAIR AND DRY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM NEAR JAMES BAY. AN
H500 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST.
THE CLOSED COMPACT H500 CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH WILL BE
NEAR NRN MAINE AND THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE TO CLOSE THIS WEEK. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED BY SUNDAY...AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL UPSTREAM OF THE NORTHEAST. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE APPROACHING...
AS WELL AS ITS WARM FRONT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY FOR AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE WITH THE RATHER
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA...NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
H850 TEMPS OF +10C TO +13C WITH DECENT MIXING IN THE NW FLOW REGIME
SHOULD YIELD SEASONABLE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST DAY OF SUMMER WITH HIGHS
IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY COMFORTABLE WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M40S
TO L50S. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE RIDGING DOWN INTO THE REGION...BUT
SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK IMPULSE
EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW THAT COULD INCREASE CLOUDS LATE...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH A THREAT OF ISOLD SHOWERS
ON SATURDAY...AS A SFC WAVE PASSES WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION NEAR THE
DELMARVA CORRIDOR. THE GFS INDICATES LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY...AND
THE ECMWF HINTS AT SOME ISOLD SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE TRI
CITIES. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS. LOWS
WILL BE COOL IN THE CANADIAN AIR MASS WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND HILLS...AND M40S TO AROUND 50F OVER THE
MTNS. TEMPS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A SHADE COOLER THAN
FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AROUND...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH A FEW
U60S OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC WAVE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH A PERIOD OF CLEARING EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS WILL STILL BE IN THE 50S. LOW PRESSURE REACHES THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION AND ITS WARM FRONT STARTS TO MOVE N/NE
TOWARDS PA AND NJ. THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AND THE WAVE WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM. THE MUCAPE
VALUES WERE STILL LOW WITH LESS THAN 250 J/KG OVER THE FCST AREA.
H850 TEMPS IN THE +10C TO +13C RANGE WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPS A SHADE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF JUNE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO M70S...EXCEPT
FOR SOME 60S OVER THE MTNS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT WITH THE SFC WAVE
AND WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE LATE IN THE EXTENDED WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. HUMIDITY LEVELS START TO
CREEP UP WITH THE POOLING OF HIGHER DEWPTS INTO THE U50S TO 60S.
MUCAPES RISE TO 500-1500+ J/KG LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SHOWALTER VALUES DIP TO 0C TO -3C INDICATIVE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. PWATS INCREASE TO 1-1.50 INCHES. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. FOR
NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH CHC POPS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
50S TO L60S...AND HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH U60S TO M70S OVER THE FCST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE
MVFR/IFR FLYING CONDITIONS ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LATER FOG/LOW STRATUS TONIGHT.
THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AND SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INITIALLY PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 4-8 KNOTS.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL BE A LINE/CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION PRIMARILY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. HAVE PLACED TEMPO GROUPS AT
KGFL AND KALB FROM 00Z TO 03Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION...WITH THE CONVECTION CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
ABOUT 06Z. DID NOT PLACE TEMPO GROUPS AT KPOU AND KPSF AS ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD IMPACT THESE TAF SITES AFTER 03Z.
BEHIND THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE A
TRAILING REGION OF LIGHT RAIN AS WELL AND HAVE KEPT -SHRA AND VCSH
IN THE TAFS FROM 06Z TO 12Z.
MVFR/IFR FOG/LOW STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEHIND THE
CONVECTION AS WELL...WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. THE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE OF IFR FOG IS AT KGFL AND KPSF...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT IFR CONDITIONS AT KALB AS WELL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS
AND IF WINDS CAN SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT GENERALLY AROUND 5 KNOTS.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO THE TAF SITES TOWARDS DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE MVFR CEILINGS MAY HANG ON UNTIL THE
MID-MORNING HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD SEE BROKEN
CUMULUS AROUND 4-6 KFT WITH A NORTHWEST WIND BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TODAY. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA...ALONG
WITH CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
TODAY...INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND DROP TO 40 TO50
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 ,PH TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
SOME MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE QUESTIONS STILL REMAINING ON JUST HOW ORGANIZED
THE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE...THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM.
ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES...LOCALIZED ISSUES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS RELATIVELY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
221 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS
BROUGHT THE INSTABILITY EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING CAUSED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MOVED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. AS IT DID, IT CAUSED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS FORMED A DONUT
HOLE SHAPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT HAS KEPT MOST OF THE SHOWERS OUT
OF THE MIAMI DADE AREA. LOOKING AT CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY, THE
CONVECTION OVER THE ATLANTIC IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AND THE
LINE OVER THE GULF SIDE IS BEGINNING TO BE ENHANCED. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND CONDITIONS, EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BE THE RULE TODAY, WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING, AND THOSE SHOULD BE ON
THE GULF SIDE. THIS PATTERN IS SHOWN FAIRLY WELL BY THE HRRR 15Z
RUN. SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THE MODELS SOLUTION FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHER POPS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND STILL
MAINTAINING LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST, EXCEPT FOR
PALM BEACH, WHERE HIGH END CHANCE AS SHOWERS ARE STILL IN THAT
AREA.
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HANGS AROUND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A
SURFACE HIGH, TO THE NORTHEAST, WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN THIS WEEK
AND CAUSE THE SFC WINDS TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN SOUTHERLY AND
EASTERLY. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IN THE INTERIOR
AND GULF COAST THIS WEEK, WITH SOME NOCTURNAL AND EARLY TO MID
MORNING ACTIVITY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST EACH DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL START TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THIS
WEEKEND...AS A THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
UNTIED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND FOCUSING THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING
FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOCUSING THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
&&
.AVIATION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE WEST. THIS HAS CAUSED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THE
CIRCULATION OF THE TROUGH. DUE TO THIS LOCATION OF THE TROUGH, THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A DIMINISHING THREAT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WATERS BUT CONFIDENT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE
FORECAST AFT 00Z AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WIND WILL ALSO BE RATHER
ERRATIC DUE TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION BUT A GENERAL EAST DIRECTION
IS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. A SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST
WILL KEEP AN EAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE WATER FOR THE
TIME BEING. SEA SHOULD BE 1 TO 3 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH THE GULF SEEING SEA OF 1 TO 2 FEET.
CONDITIONS UNDER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
ROUGH AT TIMES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 84 75 84 / 40 60 30 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 84 76 84 / 40 60 30 50
MIAMI 76 85 76 85 / 40 60 30 50
NAPLES 73 86 73 86 / 30 60 50 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
248 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER IDAHO. VERY DRY
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHEAST WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
PLAINS WITH MONSOONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WELL
EAST OF OUR AREA. A DRY LINE IS ALSO EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF
OBERLIN KANSAS AND OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES HAVE
DEVELOPED AND CIN HAS WEAKENED SOME OVER FAR EASTER PARTS OF OUR OVER
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA. WHILE
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DEVELOP OVER THE NE PANHANDLE...A VERY DEEP/DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
OVER OUR CWA AND A TREND TOWARDS LOW TD VALUES MIXING NORTH SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD HAVE
A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE...THIS DOESNT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND SURFACE
PATTERN/GRADIENT IS FAIRLY WEAK OVER OUR CWA. RH VALUES HAVE
DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY HOWEVER WITH FUELS STILL QUESTIONABLE AND
WINDS MARGINAL NO RED FLAG WARNING IS PLANNED THIS AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...WHILE STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS AS THE AIR MASS ALOFT BEGINS TO CHANGE
WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE COULD
START TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG A CONVERGENCE ZONE IN OUR EASTERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
BETTER COVERAGE AFTER 00Z (7PM CDT). SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED
WED AFTERNOON DUE TO QUESTIONABLE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND LIMITED
SHEER. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF TROUGH AXIS WE COULD
SEE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN CWA THAT COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
THREAT THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
WEDNESDAY EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
THE TRI-STATE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...700-300MB FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIOS...SPECIFICALLY THOSE AT
750MB...INCREASE AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
AT THE SURFACE THE DRY LINE OVER NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES WILL
MOVE BACK WEST ONE OR TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER
EASTERN COLORADO DEEPENS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA EAST OF RETREATING DRY LINE.
IN ADDITION A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST RAPID
PRESSURE RISES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 50 KTS JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST TO 45 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THE ISALLOBARIC TREND DECLINES SO WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH...EXITING THE AREA AROUND
SUNRISE.
MEANWHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF IT TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850 TO
750 MB OR SO STEEPEN. THE ADDED EFFECT OF INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MIXING RATIOS WILL CREATE ELEVATED CAPE OF 1000-2500 J/KG...WITH THE
HIGHEST CAPE OVER FAR EASTERN NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR IS AROUND 50KTS SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY.
TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY TIME/LOCATION OF THE SEVERE STORMS IN
THE FORECAST. THIS SETUP IS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVENING AS FAR AS A
SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL WITH STORMS FORMING UPSTREAM OF A COLD FRONT
WITH STRONG ISALLOBARIC TRENDS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF STORMS
MERGE INTO A SQUALL LINE BEHIND THE FRONT AND IF HIGH WINDS DEVELOP
BEHIND THE STORMS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.
TOWARD SUNRISE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WITH DRIER MORE STABLE AIR FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT IN FROM THE WEST.
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER AND DRY DUE TO A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING A WEAKER 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE COLORADO BORDER. THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT WILL
RETREAT BACK INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA AS THE LEE
TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO DEEPENS. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL
MIXING RATIOS TO INCREASE EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ALLOW
ELEVATED CAPE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE 500MB TROUGH. AS A RESULT
WILL HAVE SOME LOW RAINFALL CHANCES FOR STORMS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH
FOLLOWING THE RETREATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. DUE TO SOUNDINGS NOT LOOKING
VERY SUITABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE...WILL KEEP PRECIP.
CHANCES FAIRLY LOW DESPITE ELEVATED CAPE OF 1000-2000J/KG.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE AS THE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS SLOWLY PLODS EAST WITH NUMEROUS SMALLER
TROUGHS SOUTH OF IT MOVING OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHEN A DEEPER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. GEFS MEMBERS HAVE HIGH CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL FOR THAT NIGHT WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE THAT THE AREA WILL
RECEIVE RAINFALL. FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES FOR RAINFALL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA.
SINCE THESE SMALLER SCALE TROUGHS ARE TIED TO THE EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF MODELS PUSH THE HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES AHEAD A DAY OR TWO BY THE
TIME NEXT WEEK ARRIVES SINCE MODELS TEND TO MOVE CLOSED LOWS TOO
FAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THEN COOL TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK TERMINAL...WITH ONLY A 15KFT AGL CLOUD LAYER DEVELOPING LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR KMCK AND WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND GRADIENT IS STILL WEAK OVER
KGLD...SO THERE HAS BEEN A DELAY IN THE WINDS INCREASING. WIND
GUSTS 20-25KT ARE STILL EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH WINDS DECREASING AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
137 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW SW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER IDAHO. VERY DRY
AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHEAST WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
PLAINS WITH MONSOONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WELL
EAST OF OUR AREA. A DRY LINE IS ALSO EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF
OBERLIN KANSAS AND OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...VERY HIGH CAPE VALUES HAVE
DEVELOPED AND CIN HAS WEAKENED SOME OVER FAR EASTER PARTS OF OUR OVER
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA. WHILE
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DEVELOP OVER THE NE PANHANDLE...A VERY DEEP/DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
OVER OUR CWA AND A TREND TOWARDS LOW TD VALUES MIXING NORTH SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD HAVE
A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE...THIS DOESNT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND SURFACE
PATTERN/GRADIENT IS FAIRLY WEAK OVER OUR CWA. RH VALUES HAVE
DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY HOWEVER WITH FUELS STILL QUESTIONABLE AND
WINDS MARGINAL NO RED FLAG WARNING IS PLANNED THIS AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...WHILE STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
COOLER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS AS THE AIR MASS ALOFT BEGINS TO CHANGE
WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WE COULD
START TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG A CONVERGENCE ZONE IN OUR EASTERN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
BETTER COVERAGE AFTER 00Z (7PM CDT). SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED
WED AFTERNOON DUE TO QUESTIONABLE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND LIMITED
SHEER. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF TROUGH AXIS WE COULD
SEE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN CWA THAT COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
THREAT THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
FAIRLY SEASONABLE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND A CHANCE FOR
STORMS ON MOST DAYS. ON THE LARGE SCALE AN UPPER LOW WILL LOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CANADIAN PLAINS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE SETTLING IN BEHIND IT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.
THIS PATTERN STICKS AROUND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEST COAST
LONGWAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN
ESSENTIALLY REMAINS STAGNANT.
LOCALLY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA
IN SOME FORM FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING WARM AND MOIST AIR TO
ADVECT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WHILE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
LOOK LIKE SOME TYPICAL SUMMER CONVECTION...THE INCREASED MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIALLY TO LEAD TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. WHILE STILL A LONG WAY
OUT...THIS SET-UP HAS THE POTENTIALLY FOR FLOODING DUE TO
EXTREMELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS /LESS THAN 5 KTS AT TIMES/ AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE /PWAT VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES...APPROACHING 99TH
PERCENTILE LEVELS FOR AREA RAOB CLIMATOLOGY/. CURRENTLY HAVE A
HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHICH IS VERY CONSERVATIVE COMPARED TO LATEST GUIDANCE AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW LATEST WPC FORECAST. IF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT
EXPECT HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
TEMPS OVER THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART...UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS FRI/SAT/SUN AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S. MONDAY WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT ONLY BY A
FEW DEGREES - EXPECT HIGHS NEAR 80.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT TUE JUN 17 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK TERMINAL...WITH ONLY A 15KFT AGL CLOUD LAYER DEVELOPING LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR KMCK AND WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND GRADIENT IS STILL WEAK OVER
KGLD...SO THERE HAS BEEN A DELAY IN THE WINDS INCREASING. WIND
GUSTS 20-25KT ARE STILL EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH WINDS DECREASING AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
345 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST NIGHT/S AND THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION HAS
PASSED EAST. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...RISING 5H RIDGE HGTS AND ASSOC
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND Q-VECT DIVERGENCE FROM THE WEST LED TO
CLEARING SKIES OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AND OVER
MUCH OF THE EAST HALF THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING 850 MB TEMPS OF 16-17C
TO THE SFC YIELDED INLAND HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST HALF OF UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON. LAKE BREEZES HAVE
KEPT TEMPS COOLER NEAR THE SHORELINES...GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
MODIFIED RUC SNDGS OVER SCNTRL UPPER MI FOR 86/59 YIELD AROUND 800
J/KG. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY PERHAPS SOME CONVECTION COULD BE
INITIATED ALONG DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER SCNTRL WI SO
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS INTO THE EVENING HRS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER ERN NE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SRN/CNTRL
WI TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT. THIS SHORTWAVE WORKING ON
AN ENVIRONMENT OF 1500-2500 J/KG WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER AROUND OF
CONVECTION ACROSS WI INTO LOWER MI TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
NRN FRINGE OF THIS CONVECTION MAY BRUSH SCNTRL UPR MI MAINLY SRN MNM
COUNTY WITH SOME SHRA/TSRA WHERE THERE REMAINS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF
INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS TONIGHT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY BUT BEST CONVECTION SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH CLOSER TO
WARM FRONT AND BETTER INSTABILITY.
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NRN PLAINS RIDGE INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW SFC RDGG FM HUDSON BAY HIGH TO WORK INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THIS SHOULD ENSURE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS FROM UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
INLAND WITH COOLER 60S TO LOWER 70S READINGS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES
SHORELINES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
TWO UPPER TROUGHS WILL BE SURROUNDING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
(ONE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE OTHER FAR NORTHERN QUEBEC)
TO START THE PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE UPPER TROUGHS. OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA...STRETCHING FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO JUST WEST OF HUDSON BAY. A HUDSON BAY HIGH
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE AND STRETCHING A SURFACE RIDGE
SOUTH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE HURON. THIS UPPER AND
SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA TO SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THAT
TIME. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THAT ARE RIGHT ALONG
THE WISCONSIN BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...JUST
IN CASE CONVECTION THAT FIRES CLOSER TO THE BETTER WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN MINNESOTA BRUSHES THAT AREA AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE HUDSON BAY HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW TO TRY AND HOLD OFF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY WILL COME OVER THE FAR WEST TOWARDS THE LATER PART OF
THE AFTERNOON...AS THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN
MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY. WITH PROPAGATION VECTORS POINTING TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WOULD EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION IN THAT AREA TO MOVE OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
THURSDAY EVENING. THOSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD CONTINUE TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AIDED BY THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS (MARGINAL INSTABILITY
DUE TO WEAKENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES) OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY
(ESPECIALLY WEST/CENTRAL IN THE MORNING). WITH THE BROAD/WEAKENING
WAA CONTINUING EAST LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT A PERIOD OF NO PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST MERGES WITH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH.
THIS MERGING OF THE UPPER TROUGHS WILL PULL THE LEFT OVER UPPER
WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE
MERGING OF THE TROUGHS AND HOW QUICKLY IT SWEEPS THROUGH... BUT IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
AND PRODUCE CLEARING SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
ALSO NEED TO POINT OUT THAT THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY AND
A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING AND RH VALUES FALLING
TOWARDS 20-25 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. LIGHT
RAINS IN THAT AREA DURING THE LAST 2 DAYS HAS IMPROVED FFMC
VALUES...BUT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD ALLOW THE
FINE FUELS TO DRY BACK OUT BY THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...WIND
GUSTS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 10-20MPH RANGE ON THURSDAY
AND LIMIT THE WILDFIRE CONCERNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD AS LOW-LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY UNDER DOMINANT HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
LINGERING HIGH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA WILL WARRANT MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG OVER THE WEST INTO WEDNESDAY AND AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. SHIP REPORTS AND WEB CAMS CONFIRM THAT MUCH
OF THE FOG OVER THE EAST HALF IS DENSE SO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY THROUGH WED MORNING.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WILL BE SLOWLY
REPLACED BY A RIDGE THIS EVENING...EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. LIGHT WINDS WILL
BECOME NE...AND FUNNEL OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH GUSTS
OF 20-25KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
NORTH DAKOTA APPROACHES NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BRINGING THE RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ248>251-
265>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
330 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
WITH BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE E HALF OF THE CONUS. SHORTWAVE
THAT EJECTED FROM THE WRN TROF LED TO THE EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
HAS STRENGTHENED FROM THE CONVECTION AND IS NOW MOVING ACROSS NRN
WI. THE ASSOCIATED NRN END OF MCS IS MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL UPPER MI
TOWARD ERN UPPER MI ATTM. TO THE N...A MID LEVEL LOW IS OVER NRN
ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED ILL-DEFINED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE
NEAR THE N END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
MUCH OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS LAGGING A BIT BEHIND REALITY
WITH THE MCS. LARGELY UTILIZED RADAR TRENDS...BUT INCORPORTATED SOME
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE TO SHIFT ONGOING SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS ENE THIS
MORNING. BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD EXIT THE ERN FCST AREA AROUND MID
MORNING IF NOT SOONER. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SHRA...
CLOUDS WILL THIN TODAY AND A LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZE FORMATION. LAKE BREEZE MAY PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION LATER IN THE AFTN TOWARD THE WI BORDER AFTER STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. STILL...WITH HEIGHT
RISES THRU THE DAY...IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED. THE NAM/GFS SHOW MLCAPES ACROSS THE INTERIOR W HALF OF
UPPER MI INCREASING TO 1000-2000J/KG THIS AFTN. HOURLY RUC13 RUNS
ARE MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH MLCAPE IN THE 200-350J/KG RANGE
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. THESE LOWER MLCAPES ARE DUE TO MIXED LAYER
DWPTS BEING 5-10F LOWER THAN THE NAM AND GFS. PREFER THESE LOWER
VALUES GIVEN THE OVERALL LIGHT WIND FIELDS TODAY THAT WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE S. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WHICH IS STILL CONTINUING WELL TO THE S IN
IA/SRN WI/NRN IL WILL KEEP BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY HELD UP WELL TO
THE S OF HERE.
IF ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN TOWARD THE WI BORDER...THE
PCPN MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING HRS. OTHERWISE...
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION AND LIKELY MCS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM WRN TROF. GIVEN HOW FAR S THE BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY...BELIEVE NRN END OF CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY SHORTWAVE
MAY STAY COMPLETELY S OF UPPER MI. THOUGHT ABOUT REMOVING POPS
COMPLETLY AFTER ANY EARLY EVENING ISOLD CONVECTION...BUT OPTED TO
JUST TRIM SCHC/CHC POPS BACK CLOSER TO THE WI/MI BORDER AS EVERY
AVBL MODEL SHOWS SOME CONVECTION CROSSING THE BORDER TONIGHT.
PERHAPS THIS NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IS SOMEWHAT TIED TO ILL-DEFINED
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY N OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DRIFT S ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES TODAY/TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF BUILDING HUDSON BAY SFC HIGH
PRES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
TWO UPPER TROUGHS WILL BE SURROUNDING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
(ONE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE OTHER FAR NORTHERN QUEBEC)
TO START THE PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE UPPER TROUGHS. OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA...STRETCHING FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO JUST WEST OF HUDSON BAY. A HUDSON BAY HIGH
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE AND STRETCHING A SURFACE RIDGE
SOUTH OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE HURON. THIS UPPER AND
SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA TO SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THAT
TIME. WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THAT ARE RIGHT ALONG
THE WISCONSIN BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...JUST
IN CASE CONVECTION THAT FIRES CLOSER TO THE BETTER WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN MINNESOTA BRUSHES THAT AREA AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE HUDSON BAY HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW TO TRY AND HOLD OFF ANY
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY WILL COME OVER THE FAR WEST TOWARDS THE LATER PART OF
THE AFTERNOON...AS THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN
MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY. WITH PROPAGATION VECTORS POINTING TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WOULD EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION IN THAT AREA TO MOVE OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
THURSDAY EVENING. THOSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD CONTINUE TO
THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AIDED BY THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS (MARGINAL INSTABILITY
DUE TO WEAKENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES) OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY
(ESPECIALLY WEST/CENTRAL IN THE MORNING). WITH THE BROAD/WEAKENING
WAA CONTINUING EAST LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT A PERIOD OF NO PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST MERGES WITH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH.
THIS MERGING OF THE UPPER TROUGHS WILL PULL THE LEFT OVER UPPER
WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE
MERGING OF THE TROUGHS AND HOW QUICKLY IT SWEEPS THROUGH... BUT IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
SLIDE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA
AND PRODUCE CLEARING SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
ALSO NEED TO POINT OUT THAT THE DRY EASTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY AND
A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP MIXING AND RH VALUES FALLING
TOWARDS 20-25 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. LIGHT
RAINS IN THAT AREA DURING THE LAST 2 DAYS HAS IMPROVED FFMC
VALUES...BUT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD ALLOW THE
FINE FUELS TO DRY BACK OUT BY THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...WIND
GUSTS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 10-20MPH RANGE ON THURSDAY
AND LIMIT THE WILDFIRE CONCERNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD AS LOW-LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY UNDER DOMINANT HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
PATCHY FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. 5SM HAS ALREADY
BEEN REPORTED JUST N OF ONTONAGON EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ONLY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...THAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED
BY A RIDGE THIS EVENING...EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
NE...AND FUNNEL OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH GUSTS OF
20-25KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
NORTH DAKOTA APPROACHES NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BRINGING THE RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
119 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 541 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS
WITH BROAD RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER THE E HALF OF THE CONUS. SHORTWAVE
THAT EJECTED FROM THE WRN TROF LED TO THE EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE
HAS STRENGTHENED FROM THE CONVECTION AND IS NOW MOVING ACROSS NRN
WI. THE ASSOCIATED NRN END OF MCS IS MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL UPPER MI
TOWARD ERN UPPER MI ATTM. TO THE N...A MID LEVEL LOW IS OVER NRN
ONTARIO. ASSOCIATED ILL-DEFINED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE
NEAR THE N END OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
MUCH OF THE HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS LAGGING A BIT BEHIND REALITY
WITH THE MCS. LARGELY UTILIZED RADAR TRENDS...BUT INCORPORTATED SOME
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE TO SHIFT ONGOING SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS ENE THIS
MORNING. BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD EXIT THE ERN FCST AREA AROUND MID
MORNING IF NOT SOONER. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SHRA...
CLOUDS WILL THIN TODAY AND A LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW LAKE
BREEZE FORMATION. LAKE BREEZE MAY PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR ISOLD
CONVECTION LATER IN THE AFTN TOWARD THE WI BORDER AFTER STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. STILL...WITH HEIGHT
RISES THRU THE DAY...IT APPEARS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED. THE NAM/GFS SHOW MLCAPES ACROSS THE INTERIOR W HALF OF
UPPER MI INCREASING TO 1000-2000J/KG THIS AFTN. HOURLY RUC13 RUNS
ARE MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH MLCAPE IN THE 200-350J/KG RANGE
TOWARD THE WI BORDER. THESE LOWER MLCAPES ARE DUE TO MIXED LAYER
DWPTS BEING 5-10F LOWER THAN THE NAM AND GFS. PREFER THESE LOWER
VALUES GIVEN THE OVERALL LIGHT WIND FIELDS TODAY THAT WILL LIMIT
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE S. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WHICH IS STILL CONTINUING WELL TO THE S IN
IA/SRN WI/NRN IL WILL KEEP BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY HELD UP WELL TO
THE S OF HERE.
IF ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN TOWARD THE WI BORDER...THE
PCPN MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING HRS. OTHERWISE...
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION AND LIKELY MCS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM WRN TROF. GIVEN HOW FAR S THE BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY...BELIEVE NRN END OF CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY SHORTWAVE
MAY STAY COMPLETELY S OF UPPER MI. THOUGHT ABOUT REMOVING POPS
COMPLETLY AFTER ANY EARLY EVENING ISOLD CONVECTION...BUT OPTED TO
JUST TRIM SCHC/CHC POPS BACK CLOSER TO THE WI/MI BORDER AS EVERY
AVBL MODEL SHOWS SOME CONVECTION CROSSING THE BORDER TONIGHT.
PERHAPS THIS NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT IS SOMEWHAT TIED TO ILL-DEFINED
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY N OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL DRIFT S ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES TODAY/TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF BUILDING HUDSON BAY SFC HIGH
PRES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 555 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
THE 500MB RIDGE JUST TO OUR W WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SFC HIGH OVER
HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER...BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE RAIN FREE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE DRIEST AIR
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES FALLING AS LOW AS 25 TO 35 PERCENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...WHICH HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
MORNING FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. THE APPROACHING LOW TO THE W SHOULD
HELP BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE CWA...BUT JUST HOW FAR E THEY WILL GET
DURING THE DAY IS IN QUESTION. CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP THEM OVER MAINLY
W UPPER MI THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...AND SLOWLY SWEEP THEM E ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE DAY AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY EXITS E AND A LOW NEARS FROM
S CANADA AND THE N PLAINS. WILL LIKELY NEED TO DIMINISH POPS A BIT
MORE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE LATEST/SLOWER ECMWF AND
CANADIAN RUNS ARE CORRECT...AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW SLIDING IN FROM
THE NW.
THE MAIN 500MB LOW LOOKS TO SINK ESE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED TO TREND BACK ON POPS
FOR WHILE FCST POPS ARE IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT A SOAKING WEEKEND IS NOT ANTICIPATED. DUE THE
LOWER CONFIDENCE OF WHEN AND WHERE SHOWERS /AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS/ COULD DEVELOP...A BROAD 20-40 PERCENT SEEMS
REASONABLE FOR NOW. WILL NEED TO DO SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE
PERIODS AS THE TIME NEARS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST
PERIOD AS LOW-LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY UNDER DOMINANT HIGH
PRESSURE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
PATCHY FOG WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. 5SM HAS ALREADY
BEEN REPORTED JUST N OF ONTONAGON EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ONLY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...THAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED
BY A RIDGE THIS EVENING...EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
NE...AND FUNNEL OVER THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH GUSTS OF
20-25KTS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
NORTH DAKOTA APPROACHES NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BRINGING THE RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT THE LOW TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
315 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS...AND A RIDGE OVER THE EAST. ENHANCED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...NORTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN FARTHER NORTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 55KTS NEAR
37000FT AGL PER 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXTENDS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS WELL AS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE. AT THE SURFACE A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS NOTED EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IN
ADDITION...A DRY LINE IS NOTED EXTENDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...LIKELY POSITIONING ITSELF OVER NORTHERN MONTANA BY 00Z
THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
SWING TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW AND BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY MAY BEGIN TO MEANDER SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OR NORTHWEST AS
AN AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...WHICH MAY RESULT IN PERIODIC NORTHWESTERLY LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER WEST/NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR CWA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HRRR DOES INDICATE SOME VERY
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS REACHED...AND THE
4KM WRF-NMM INDICATES ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS FOR THE SAME REASON.
SO ALTHOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE PROBABILITY OF
ANY ONE LOCATION ACTUALLY OBSERVING THIS ACTIVITY IS TOO LOW FOR
INSERTION INTO THE FORECAST AND AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN THE
DRY FORECAST FOR OUR CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE
OFF CHANCE A THUNDERSTORM CAN GET GOING...IT WOULD HAVE
2000-3000J/KG 0-1KM MLCAPE AND ~35KTS DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR TO
WORK WITH...SO CERTAINLY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS COULD RESULT...BUT AGAIN THE PROBABILITY OF SUCH ACTIVITY
BEING REALIZED TO TOO LOW FOR INSERTION INTO THE FORECAST AND HWO
AT THIS TIME.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...A 60-70KT LOW LEVEL JET AXIS
JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS JET AXIS WILL LIKELY CLIP OUR CWA...IT APPEARS
THE BULK OF ANY MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST...AND
THE PRIMARY AXIS OF THERMAL ADVECTION WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. GIVEN ALL THIS...OPTED TO KEEP OUR FORECAST DRY TONIGHT
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SYNOPTIC-SCALE OMEGA SHOULD
INCREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS INCREASING
OMEGA...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING ALONG THE MEANDERING BAROCLINIC ZONE...AS WELL AS NEAR-
ZERO CIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. ONE MIGHT THINK LOCATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
AT OBSERVING CONVECTION...BUT QPF FIELDS FROM VARIOUS MODELS
SUGGEST OUR SOUTHERN CWA STANDS A BETTER CHANCE AT OBSERVING
CONVECTION DUE TO LOWER CIN VALUES. REALLY HARD TO SAY ONE
LOCATION HAS A BETTER CHANCE OVER ANOTHER...SO WENT AHEAD AND
BLANKETED THE ENTIRE CWA WITH ~20% POPS BETWEEN 21Z WEDNESDAY AND
00Z THURSDAY. SHOULD DEEP CONVECTION BE REALIZED ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF
2000-3000J/KG ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 20-30KTS. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE TO
OUTLOOK THE AREA FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER STARTING LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS TONIGHT WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 CURRENTLY
FORECAST ACROSS THE CWA. SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WHEN COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MOST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE BEST MUCAPE DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THEN DIMINISHING LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO BE MAINLY DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.
THE FRONT LINGERS JUST TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING AND
PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS IN THE
EAST...BUT THEN AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AND SOME OF THEM COULD BE IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE DAY.
THERE IS GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH. EACH OF
THE WAVES BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. IT
CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE RAINING ALL OF THE TIME OVER ALL OF THE
AREA...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE. MOST OF THESE ARE PRETTY SMALL
CHANCES SINCE THE MODELS HAVE SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING OF
EACH OF THE WAVES. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AN INCREASING WIND FIELD JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE TAF 09-14Z.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
616 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS...HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION AND USHERS IN A
REFRESHING AND DRIER AIR MASS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS EXPIRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...THERE IS ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS APPROACHING THAT MAY
REQUIRE ADDITIONAL ATTENTION. AT 600 PM...RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH A BROKEN LINE DEVELOPING ACROSS LAKE ERIE. THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT ABOUT 40 MPH...REACHING
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BETWEEN 700 AND 800 PM. THIS IS ALSO DEPICTED
BY LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND 18Z NAM.
THE BIG QUESTION IS IF THIS WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY IN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...ESPECIALLY WEST OF ROCHESTER. NAM/GFS
GUIDANCE BOTH SHOW IMPRESSIVE WIND PROFILES AT 00Z...JUST AHEAD OF
THIS SHORTWAVE. 850 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 40 TO 50
KTS...WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR AND A MODEST AMOUNT OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR. BUF VWP AND IAG OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THIS FORECAST...WITH
ENVIRONMENT CANADA ALREADY ISSUING NUMEROUS WARNINGS FOR THIS LINE.
AT THIS POINT...THE ONLY QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS HOW STORMS WILL
HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS THE LAKES. IF THEY DO...THEN THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS STILL IN PLACE. FORECAST WIND PROFILES SUGGEST WIND
DAMAGE IS THE GREATEST THREAT...WITH HAIL AND EVEN TORNADOES EVEN
A POSSIBILITY AS THIS WEATHER MOVES THROUGH. THE MOST ACTIVE
PERIOD WILL BE IN BETWEEN 800 PM AND MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD WITH LOW IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S AND IT WILL FEEL QUITE MUGGY AS WELL. EXPECT
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO PUSH THE THERMAL BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES WITH DRYING AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ACROSS THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WHICH WILL FEEL MUCH LESS MUGGY AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABOUT 5
TO 8 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A SOUTHWARD PRESSING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL USHER IN A
CANADIAN SOURCED AIRMASS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE PRESENT ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT EXPECT THESE TO CLEAR SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY OF THE PAST
FEW DAYS WILL BE REPLACED BY A MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE AND DRIER
AIRMASS. TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO LOWER 50S
WITH CLEARING SKIES.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP OUR
REGION DRY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SAFELY SOUTH OF THE
NY/PA BORDER. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THURSDAY NIGHT THE DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 40S INLAND. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A BIT OF A CHILL TO
THE AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE 60S DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. FRIDAY NIGHT A CHANCE SHOWERS
RETURNS TO THE FORECAST IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AS A FORECASTED WEAK
SHORTWAVE ALOFT BY GFS/ECMWF MAY GENERATE A SHOWER OVERNIGHT WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE UNDER WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE 50S AGAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO RIDGE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WILL GENERALLY KEEP
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE FOR THE
START OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER WHICH BEGINS AT 621AM SATURDAY. WILL
KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND
AS ANY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MAY INTERACT WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS. THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH
STABLE AIR IN PLACE TO PREVENT ANY THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY NEXT WEEK A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES BY
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SO HAVE KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER GENERAL CHANCE ON TUESDAY WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO INCREASE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
AGAIN BE MENTIONED. HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RISE INTO THE
70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 60.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN IMPACT ON AVIATION WILL BE A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF
TSTMS WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THESE COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FOR 1-2 HOURS AT EACH TAF
LOCATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS A
POSSIBILITY. BEST ESTIMATE FOR TIMING IS REFLECTED IN CURRENT TAFS.
AFTER THIS...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THIS.
ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ATTENDANT LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR TO MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
A WARM AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THE WAVE ACTION ON THE LAKES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT AND COULD BRING
LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A REFRESHING
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR/WCH/APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR/WCH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/JJR/WCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1245 PM EDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 AM TUESDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A FAIRLY SLACK GRADIENT OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH AN APPARENT WEAK SHEAR AXIS ON WATER
VAPOR MOVING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM VIRGINIA. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...THE LATEST RAP FORECASTS DECENT 850MB THETA-E VALUES
OVER THE AREA...AND 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7.5C/KM
OR A LITTLE HIGHER. COMPARED TO MONDAY...THE 12Z GSO AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE LFC BEING HIGHER AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS JUST
SLIGHT MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. 0-6KM SHEAR IS WEAK...10KT OR LESS
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WHILE THE RAP SURFACE DEW POINTS SEEM TO BE
MIXED TOO MUCH LATE IN THE DAY...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SOME
MIXING OF THE DEW POINTS TO MAKE FOR AT LEAST GOOD CIN INTO THE
EARLY-TO-MID AFTERNOON. BETTER LIFT IS SUGGESTED BY THE RAP IN
SOUTHEAST AREAS AFTER 19Z...LEAST NORTHEAST WHERE THE RAP 850MB
THETA-E VALUES AND OVERALL INSTABILITY ARE LOWER.
ALL OF THIS COINCIDES WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST...AND CHANGED
LITTLE FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR WRF AND THE NSSL ARW BOTH
NOTE ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY IN A RING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...A HIGHER LFC...AND MOSTLY
CONVERGENCE ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AS FORECAST BY THE RAP...CHANCES
FOR DEEP CONVECTION APPEAR LIMITED BUT STILL POSSIBLE DUE TO HEAT...
INSTABILITY...AND WEAK LIFT PROVIDED BY WEAK SURFACE FEATURES AND
THE WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT MOVING SOUTH. THE RAP DOES FORECAST ITS
BEST LIFT...IN A RELATIVE SENSE...SOUTHEAST POSSIBLY NEAR THE SEA
BREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE
FORECAST AROUND 1000J/KG...AS IS TYPICAL IN SUCH AN AIR MASS THE
STRONGEST STORM...SHOULD ONE FORM...COULD PRODUCE A SEVERE WIND BUT
COVERAGE OF SUCH SEEMS QUITE ISOLATED. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES
SUGGEST HIGHS ABOUT AS FORECAST...ON THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE AND IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 90S IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TO AROUND 100 OVER MUCH
OF THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. -DJF
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION OCCURRING AT SUNSET WILL DIMINISH BY 10-11
PM. UNDER FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT CALM WINDS...MAY SEE POCKETS OF FOG
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVE A HEAVY DOWNPOUR FROM
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MIN TEMPS NEAR 70-LOWER 70S. -WSS
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...
WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE OVERHEAD..WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
INITIATE/SUSTAIN ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED STORM LATE WEDNESDAY-
WEDNESDAY EVENING. BEST CHANCE OF A STORM WILL BE IN THE NW PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM ANY CONVECTION THAT DRIFTS OFF THE BLUE
RIDGE. WE WILL LIKELY SEE OUR HOTTEST TEMPS OF THE YEAR SO FAR
WEDNESDAY AS THICKNESSES REMAIN IN THE 1430S. UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS EXPECT IN THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE MID 90S WILL
BE COMMON. THE ONLY PLACE WHICH MAY SEE A RECORD HIGH TEMP
THREATENED WIL BE RDU WHERE THE RECORD HIGH MAX FOR JUNE 18TH IS 98
SET IN 1944. SIMILAR TO TODAY...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MIX TOWARD THE
SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON...LOWERING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 60S.
THIS YIELDS HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE...VERY
SIMILAR TO THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE. MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
NEAR 70-LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM TUESDAY...
THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A SWITCH IN THE GENERAL PATTERN FROM
RIDGING ALOFT TO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA. IN ADDITION...HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE RESULT IS
A BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WILL SET UP NORTHEAST OF THE CWA AND EXTEND
BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A SECOND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
WHILE THE PATTERN WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA...TWO APPEAR TO BE MORE ROBUST. THE FIRST IS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THE SECOND ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
BOTH ARE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES. THE INCREASE IN FORCING SHOULD MAKE CONVECTION EASIER
TO SUSTAIN AS SHEAR VALUES INCREASE FROM GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 TO
NEAR 30 KTS. CAPE VALUES SHOULD BE PLUS OR MINUS 1000 J/KG. HAVE
INCREASED CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS AS COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. ANY STORMS THAT MAY BECOME SEVERE WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL
FOR WET MICROBURSTS BUT THERE IS ALSO ENOUGH CAPE THROUGH THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE TO NOT COUNT OUT SOME SMALL HAIL AS WELL. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT AND LOWER TO
MID 90S ON THE COOL SIDE. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1005 AM TUESDAY...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. FIRST...EARLY
MORNING LOW END MVFR-IFR CEILINGS AND IFR-LIFR VISIBILITY IN FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD...EACH MORNING. THESE
CONDITIONS MOST PROBABLE BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. SECOND...LATE DAY-EARLY
EVENING ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY TODAY ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS AS WELL AS THE NW PIEDMONT...AND
LIMITED TO JUST THE FAR NW PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH A LOW
LEVEL MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...THE POSSIBILITY OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON-EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...DJF/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...DJF/WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
122 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SOME CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.
BLENDED TO LATEST OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
TODAY SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE PLEASANT. EXPECT DRIER NORTHEASTERLY
SFC FLOW AROUND HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE MOST PART ARE ABOVE FORECAST HIGHS...SO AFTERNOON CU
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED. THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW STRATOCU
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ONTARIO/SOUTHEAST MANITOBA THAT IS SLIDING
SOUTHWESTWARD...BUT LATEST RAP 925 HPA RH KEEPS THIS AREA OF
CLOUDS JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH STRONG DRYING ACROSS MOST OF
ND AND NORTHERN MN. REMOVED ALL POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ALL
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEPING PRECIP TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURE/SKY/WIND GRIDS...BUT OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
NEEDED TO ADD A MENTION OF FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS ACROSS THE
EXTREME SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS VISIBILITIES AT STAPLES
AND ELBOW LAKE HAVE FALLEN BELOW A MILE. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WITH 500MB
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STILL IN EFFECT AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. POPS FOR TODAY LIMITED
TO THE EXTREME SOUTH AS NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP THE MOST MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IN SD. MESOSCALE SOLNS HINT AT ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING S OF
THE CWFA IN E SD AND MOVING ACROSS S MN ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING.
ANY COMPLEX WHICH DEVELOPS IN E MT/ W ND WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
SASKATCHEWAN UNDER IN THE INFLUENCE OF THE APPROACHING 500MB LOW.
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROUGH PUSHES EAST WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. INITIATION WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AS UPDRAFTS
TAP ML CAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3000J/KG RANGE. BY LATE
AFTERNOON... WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH SOME SEVERE
STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS RISE TO 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT REACHING THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
OF THE UPPER LOW. 850MB TEMP/MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS 00Z
THURSDAY ON 30 TO 40KT SOUTHERLY LLJ. ELEVATED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTH LIFTING TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT. SFC TROUGH TO MOVE INTO MN DURING THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE OVER NORTH
DAKOTA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THIS FEATURE...WHICH HAS RAISED
CONFIDENCE. THE BEST SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE ON FRIDAY...WITH
LOWERING CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD (AS THE UPPER
LOW PROPAGATES EASTWARD). TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME
BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR STRATUS COULD ENTER THE KDVL AREA AT SOME POINT
TOMORROW MORNING. WITH VIS UNRESTRICTED AND CIGS ONLY CIRRUS...THE
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WINDS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY AND COULD GUST
ABOVE 15 KTS IN SOME SPOTS TODAY BUT WILL BECOME MORE CONSISTENTLY
EASTERLY OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP WITH 15 TO 20 KTS SUSTAINED
AND HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1241 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
.UPDATE...
INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON BY A FEW DEGREES IN
MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON EARLY AFTERNOON TRENDS. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE NEAR THE DRYLINE...AND HAVE
TWEAKED POPS ACCORDINGLY. IF STORMS DEVELOP...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A
FEW COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
KB
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CHANCES/COVERAGE APPEAR TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS. KAMA LOOKS TO HAVE THE RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCE
OF THE THREE TERMINALS...BUT STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION ATTM. OUTSIDE
OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
KB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014/
DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE HAS RETREATED OVERNIGHT...AND HAS CLEARED ALL BUT FAR
NORTHWEST CORNER OF FORECAST AREA. RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTS RICH
MOISTURE EAST OF DRYLINE...WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS IN THE 12 TO 17
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. VAD WIND PROFILES FROM KAMA
88D DEPICT EXISTING SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 5000 FEET OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...SO DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY
AFTER SUNRISE. THUS...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL BUT NORTHWEST PART OF
FORECAST AREA.
WITH DEEP...RICH MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SLIP INTO THE AREA AND EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS. 03
COCKRELL
FIRE WEATHER...
20-FOOT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
LIKELY MEET ELEVATED AND/OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER METEOROLOGICAL
CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COMBINED PANHANDLES TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND SUBSEQUENT VEGETATIVE
GREEN UP IN THESE AREAS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW. THEREFORE...
THE ISSUANCE OF ANY FIRE WEATHER BULLETINS IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
LIGHTER WINDS...HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...AND OPPORTUNITIES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 03
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
08/02
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NITES CONVECTION MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE
HURON. A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THIS SURFACE LOW
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL IOWA WHERE CUMULUS CLOUDS LOOK
AGITATED. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY OVER
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN IOWA BUT CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION IS PREVENTING THE NEXT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FROM
DEVELOPING SO FAR. FARTHER WEST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
NORTHEAST OVER NEBRASKA WHERE WEAK LOW PRESSURE RESIDES. ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...CU IS BUILDING OVER NE WISCONSIN WHERE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING BUT PLENTY OF INHIBITION IS PRESENT
THERE AS WELL. WITH THE NEXT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING...THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH LIFT ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND
DESTABILIZATION OF THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD LEAD TO A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A VARIETY OF TRACKS OF THIS COMPLEX WITH THE NAM/ECMWF
TRACKING IT TOWARDS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WHILE THE MESOMODELS EXPANDING
IT TOWARDS MILWAUKEE. SINCE THE LLJ AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
BE DIRECTED TOWARDS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS...A
SOUTHEAST TRACK SEEMS MORE PROBABLE. HOWEVER...SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY STILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE AROUND 1K-1.5K J/KG WHILE EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEARS WILL BE APPROX. 30 KTS. SO APPEARS THAT A LOW END
SEVERE THREAT IS STILL POSSIBLE...IF THE MAIN COMPLEX DOES NOT CUT
OFF MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE SOUTH. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ALSO
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ROUTE 29 WHERE PWATS WILL BE UPWARDS OF 1.5
INCHES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING EASTERN WISCONSIN
DURING THE MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
GOING THROUGH THE AM HOURS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
THINK PRECIP WILL BE EXITING BY LATE IN THE MORNING AND THEN WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR OFF THE
GREAT LAKES. EVEN THOUGH THE 850MB BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN....AM THINKING THAT THE COOLER AND MORE STABLE
AIR WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES SMALLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST
SHOWS. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S EAST TO LOW 80S WEST...COOLER
LAKE SIDE.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO
BE THE MAIN CONCERN. EARLY IN PERIOD MODELS ALL TRENDING TOWARD PUSHING
PCPN OFF TO THE WEST...WITH EAST WINDS OUT OF SURFACE HIGH OVER HUDSON
BAY FILTERING IN DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION. PCPN CHANCES INCREASE
AGAIN THU NIGHT/FRI AS LOW AND SURFACE TROF SHIFT EAST. NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSED WITH CHANCES FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME WITH WEAK LLVL
JET AND SHEAR. PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER REGION WITH MAIN
ISSUE AGAIN CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL.
WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND...LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PCPN CHANCES TO
CONTINUE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ANOTHER
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MOVE
EAST OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LOOKING TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 29
LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL
HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...CIGS WILL BE FALLING WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
IFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE RAIN
EXITS...CIGS/VSBYS TO IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING ONWARD.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......MPC