Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/16/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
131 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL
ACCOMPANY THE ONSHORE FLOW WITH COASTAL CLOUDS BECOMING MORE
EXTENSIVE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH A BRIEF RETURN TO WARMER WEATHER. LATE
IN THE WEEK ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 12:54 PM PDT SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING AND A LOT
OF VARIETY IN THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH.
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THIS AFTERNOON SO NUDGED TODAYS HIGHS
UP A LITTLE IN THE GRID FORECASTS. SFO RUNNING AROUND 80 DEGREES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS TO BRUSH ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY NORTH BAY SO INCREASED
OPAQUE SKY GRID COVERAGE SOMEWHAT.
MODEL TRENDS LOOKS REASONABLE AS TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH SERIES OF DIGGING SHORT WAVES. ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AND NAM HAS OVER 4 MB SFO TO SAC
BY SUNDAY EVENING. SHALLOW MARINE LAYER TO REFORM NEAR THE COAST
OVERNIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO MONDAY. HRRR AND WRF DO NOT INDICATE
HIGH SURFACE RH TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS...SO EXPECT FOG TO RETURN TO
MAINLY COASTAL STRIP PROBABLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PERSISTENT NW
SURFACE WINDS OFFSHORE LEAVES PLENTY OF COLD WATER FOR FORMATION OF
FOG.
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO COAST AND NEAR
COASTAL VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND DOWN THE
SALINAS VALLEY. STRATUS WILL SURGE FURTHER INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. LOOK FOR A COOLING TREND INTO
MONDAY ESPECIALLY COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY AND INLAND MONDAY.
INTRODUCED SOME DRIZZLE NEAR THE COAST SAN MATEO COUNTY SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH STRENGTHING SURFACE LOW OVER
SACRAMENTO VALLEY. EXPECT MORE STRATUS CLOUDS AND LESS VALLEY FOG
UNDER DEEPER MARINE LAYER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THERMAL TROF BACKS TO NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS TO PARALLEL COAST
MIDWEEK FOR CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS IN COASTAL AREAS EXPOSED TO
THE NW SEA BREEZE. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BEGINNING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE
MOVES ONSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK TROF APPROACHES THE COAST FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND FOR THE NEXT COOL DOWN AND MARINE PUSH.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:41 AM PDT SATURDAY...THE FORECAST MODELS
POINT TO FAIRLY PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.
DRY. VFR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY LATE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS 20 TO 28 KNOT POSSIBLE
00Z-04Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY.
OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CLOUDS RETURNING LATE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:41 AM PDT SATURDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONG WINDS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS WITH STEEP FRESH SWELLS
AND WIND WAVES.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
347 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
CURRENTLY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST
ACROSS UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH MOST AREAS
GUSTING IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. TEMPERATURES ARE HOT WITH 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG WINDS TO PRODUCE VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ANY
OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE POSTPONED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE TRIED TO GET GOING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BUT HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE THE CONTINUED DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING THE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY STALLED OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE SHOULD START TO PROGRESS SOUTH AROUND 6 PM AND PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE STRONG
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH NORTH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH. THERE IS A
CONCERN THAT WINDS COULD BE STRONGER...IF THEY CAN GET HELP FROM
SOUTHWARD SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. SPEAKING OF CONVECTION...MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND INTO THE PALMER
DIVIDE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AND
DRY LIGHTNING IS A CONCERN. FOR NOW JUST HAVE ISOLATED COVERAGE
OVER THESE AREAS. OVER BACA COUNTY...THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR MODELS
ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER BACA COUNTY AROUND
04Z AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED ACTIVITY THERE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ONCE ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES OR MOVES INTO KANSAS.
SUNDAY...ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR REGION.
EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES GIVEN
THE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. AS FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW THE DISTURBANCE LOOKS TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE
ANY IMPACT ON OUR CWA...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH
WILL DRIFT EASTWARD. NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER SUNDAY EVENING. THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE LOW AND ONLY HAVE SILENT POPS. MAIN
WEATHER STORY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS THE DRY AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. ON MONDAY...GRIDS HAVE ALMOST THE
ENTIRE CWA REACHING THE METEOROLOGICAL CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG
WARNING. HOWEVER...LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES ONLY HAVE FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 226 AND 227 (EL PASO COUNTY) WITH CRITICAL FUELS. DECIDED
NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR ONLY THESE TWO
ZONES AND MID SHIFT CAN PROVIDE PLENTY OF LEAD TIME FOR A HIGHLIGHT.
IF FUELS DO BECOME CRITICAL...FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
LIKELY. ON TUESDAY...WINDS ALOFT ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER...BUT SUSPECT
WINDS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR EXCEED RED FLAG CRITERIA...WITH
HUMIDITIES REMAINING LOW. DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME...PERSONS SHOULD STILL BE VERY CAREFUL
WITH ANY OPEN FLAMES.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH WILL PASS
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
STRONGLY FAVOR KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORMS
WILL VERY LIKELY STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. OTHER CONCERN WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG
WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS... EVEN WITH MINIMAL MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. GRIDS ARE STINGY WITH POPS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...GIVEN THE LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE HIGHER
THAN POP VALUES. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.
FINALLY...HAVE CONCERNS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND
HUMIDITY ON WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM...REGION COULD STILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY COOL ENOUGH FOR
HUMIDITIES TO BE JUST ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA.
.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST AND A
WARM AND DRY RIDGE ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. GFS HAS +20C
TEMPERATURES AT 700MB OB SATURDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HOT
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW STAYS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION FOR
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS COULD PROVIDE
SOME WEAK UPSLOPE TO THE PLAINS...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE EDGE OFF
OF THE HEAT. A MODEST PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALSO MOVE
INTO THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
KALS...STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KTS ARE
LIKELY ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE.
KCOS AND KPUB...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 TO 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER KPUB. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
MOVING INTO KCOS AROUND 00Z/SUN AND SHORTLY THERE AFTER FOR KPUB.
STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE RAMPART RANGE WEST OF KCOS BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT
THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ226-227.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1117 AM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...
UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL SWING THROUGH COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON SPREADING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ACROSS ALL
OF THE DISTRICT. THIS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY AREA WITH CRITICAL FUELS (THOSE RECEPTIVE
TO RAPID RATES OF FIRE SPREAD) ACCORDING TO LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES
IS ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY...AND RED FLAG WARNING HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. AS FAR AS WEATHER CONDITIONS GO...WINDS WILL
GUST UP TO 40 TO NEAR 50 MPH IN SOME PLACES AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT AND EVEN BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS AS THE DRY LINE MOVES EASTWARD INTO KANSAS. ON THE BROADER
SCALE...WITH THE GREEN UP/SNOW MELT/AND RECENT RAINFALL FUELS ARE
NOT AS DANGEROUSLY RECEPTIVE TO FIRE. REGARDLESS...THIS IS NOT THE
DAY FOR ANY OUTDOOR BURNING...ESPECIALLY IF FUELS ARE LOCALLY DRY IN
YOUR AREA. CERTAINLY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BEGIN THE DRYING
PROCESS.
HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SOME BLOWING DUST IN THE GRIDS FOR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND THE I-25 CORRIDOR OF PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND WESTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTIES. BROUGHT THE BLOWING DUST INTO CROWLEY AND OTERO
COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ITS
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW DRY THE GROUND IS AND LOOSE THE SOIL MAY
BE...SO KEPT BLOWING DUST CONFINED TO AREAS MOST PRONE TO IT AND
WHERE PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS INDICATES THAT
THERE AS BEEN THE MINIMAL RAINFALL.
AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE FOR DRY LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CHAFFEE/LAKE
COUNTIES...AND SAGUACHE COUNTY. MODELS KEEP MOISTURE VERY HIGH
BASED...AND RAP13 AND GFS ARE MUCH DRIER WITH THE SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAN NAM12 WHICH IS
OFTEN OVERLY OPTIMISTIC. HIGH RES HRRR CONCURS WITH THE DRIER MODEL
RUNS. PIKES PEAK AREA AND KIOWA COUNTY COULD SEE A DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKE AS WELL...HOWEVER COLD FRONT SHOULD COME BARRELING IN AROUND
00Z AND HUMIDITIES SHOULD INCREASE PRETTY QUICKLY. HAVE MAINTAINED
ISOLATED POPS FOR THESE AREAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY 06Z. LOCAL 4KM WRF SUGGESTS WINDS COULD GUST
CLOSE TO 50 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS CROWLEY...OTERO...
KIOWA...BENT...AND PROWERS COUNTIES BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM AS THE
FRONT RACES THROUGH.
HAVE MAINTAINED SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN BORDER
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING WITH SOME FORCING FROM THE FRONT...BUT
NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC THAT MUCH WILL OCCUR. -KT
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
ON SUN...COOLER AIR WILL COVER MOST OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH/FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY
WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS DEVELOP ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
A RETURN TO HOT..DRY AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY CONDITIONS APPEARS
LIKELY MON/TUE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH
LATEST MODELS KEEP HIGHER DEWPOINTS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BORDER. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION BOTH DAYS...AND WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE FUEL
CONDITIONS MON AS PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT/DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO FUELS DRYING OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SLIGHTLY DRIER
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAIN ZONES. WESTERN UPPER LOW EJECTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WED NIGHT...THEN INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA BY THU MORNING...WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING SOUTH THU/FRI.
PRECIP CHANCES FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOK FAIRLY LOW AS
AGAIN LOW LEVEL FLOW KEEPS A WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH FRI WITH
ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME HINTS IN THE MODEL DATA OF BETTER LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN BEGINNING NEXT WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES AND
WEAKENS...THOUGH STILL SEVERAL FORECAST ITERATIONS TO GO BEFORE
ONE CAN HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN A PATTERN CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
KALS...STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KTS ARE
LIKELY ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
KCOS AND KPUB...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 TO 35 KTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER KPUB. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS THE FRONT MOVING INTO KCOS AROUND 00Z/SUN AND SHORTLY THERE
AFTER FOR KPUB. STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE RAMPART RANGE WEST OF KCOS BUT
SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE TERMINAL. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ226-227.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
419 AM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...
UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL SWING THROUGH COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON SPREADING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ACROSS ALL
OF THE DISTRICT. THIS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY AREA WITH CRITICAL FUELS (THOSE RECEPTIVE
TO RAPID RATES OF FIRE SPREAD) ACCORDING TO LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES
IS ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY...AND RED FLAG WARNING HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. AS FAR AS WEATHER CONDITIONS GO...WINDS WILL
GUST UP TO 40 TO NEAR 50 MPH IN SOME PLACES AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT AND EVEN BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS AS THE DRY LINE MOVES EASTWARD INTO KANSAS. ON THE BROADER
SCALE...WITH THE GREEN UP/SNOW MELT/AND RECENT RAINFALL FUELS ARE
NOT AS DANGEROUSLY RECEPTIVE TO FIRE. REGARDLESS...THIS IS NOT THE
DAY FOR ANY OUTDOOR BURNING...ESPECIALLY IF FUELS ARE LOCALLY DRY IN
YOUR AREA. CERTAINLY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BEGIN THE DRYING
PROCESS.
HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SOME BLOWING DUST IN THE GRIDS FOR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND THE I-25 CORRIDOR OF PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND WESTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTIES. BROUGHT THE BLOWING DUST INTO CROWLEY AND OTERO
COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ITS
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW DRY THE GROUND IS AND LOOSE THE SOIL MAY
BE...SO KEPT BLOWING DUST CONFINED TO AREAS MOST PRONE TO IT AND
WHERE PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS INDICATES THAT
THERE AS BEEN THE MINIMAL RAINFALL.
AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE FOR DRY LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CHAFFEE/LAKE
COUNTIES...AND SAGUACHE COUNTY. MODELS KEEP MOISTURE VERY HIGH
BASED...AND RAP13 AND GFS ARE MUCH DRIER WITH THE SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAN NAM12 WHICH IS
OFTEN OVERLY OPTIMISTIC. HIGH RES HRRR CONCURS WITH THE DRIER MODEL
RUNS. PIKES PEAK AREA AND KIOWA COUNTY COULD SEE A DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKE AS WELL...HOWEVER COLD FRONT SHOULD COME BARRELING IN AROUND
00Z AND HUMIDITIES SHOULD INCREASE PRETTY QUICKLY. HAVE MAINTAINED
ISOLATED POPS FOR THESE AREAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY 06Z. LOCAL 4KM WRF SUGGESTS WINDS COULD GUST
CLOSE TO 50 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS CROWLEY...OTERO...
KIOWA...BENT...AND PROWERS COUNTIES BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM AS THE
FRONT RACES THROUGH.
HAVE MAINTAINED SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN BORDER
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING WITH SOME FORCING FROM THE FRONT...BUT
NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC THAT MUCH WILL OCCUR. -KT
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
ON SUN...COOLER AIR WILL COVER MOST OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH/FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY
WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS DEVELOP ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
A RETURN TO HOT..DRY AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY CONDITIONS APPEARS
LIKELY MON/TUE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH
LATEST MODELS KEEP HIGHER DEWPOINTS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BORDER. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION BOTH DAYS...AND WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE FUEL
CONDITIONS MON AS PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT/DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO FUELS DRYING OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SLIGHTLY DRIER
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAIN ZONES. WESTERN UPPER LOW EJECTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WED NIGHT...THEN INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA BY THU MORNING...WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING SOUTH THU/FRI.
PRECIP CHANCES FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOK FAIRLY LOW AS
AGAIN LOW LEVEL FLOW KEEPS A WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH FRI WITH
ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME HINTS IN THE MODEL DATA OF BETTER LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN BEGINNING NEXT WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES AND
WEAKENS...THOUGH STILL SEVERAL FORECAST ITERATIONS TO GO BEFORE
ONE CAN HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN A PATTERN CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS SPREADING INTO THE KCOS...KALS...AND KPUB TERMINALS BY 18Z.
COULD SEE GUSTS TO 35-40 KTS IN AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KPUB AND
KALS. KALS COULD SEE SOME MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLOWING
DUST. TOUGHER CALL FOR KPUB AS MORE RAIN HAS FALLEN EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SO WILL LEAVE BLDU OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...HITTING THE KCOS TERMINAL BETWEEN 00Z- 01Z...AND THE
PUB TERMINAL BETWEEN 01Z AND 02Z. A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS AFTER 02Z. THERE
IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE FOR A HIGH BASED -TSRA IN VICINITY OF KCOS
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. HOWEVER
PROBABILITY LOOKS TO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT THIS
POINT. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ226-227.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1121 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
ON SATELLITE...APPEARS THAT CONVECTION IS SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST FOR
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...FOR SW COLORADO
EAST OF MANCOS AND OVER THE SWRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. RAP MODEL
SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
FOR THE ERN UINTA MOUNTAINS...APPROACHING FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN
EVENING SHOWER OR STORM. STRONGER CONVECTION IS NORTH OF THE
BORDER IN WYOMING...BUT THIS COULD BACK BUILD INTO DAGGETT COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
INCREASED PREFRONTAL SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AROUND
9PM IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. ELEVATED WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN UTAH AND NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO SATURDAY MORNING THEN WILL INCREASE IN POTENTIAL AS
DAYTIME HEATING BECOMES A FACTOR IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...EXPECT SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. AREAS OF SOUTHERN
UTAH AND COLORADO WILL STAY DRY AND QUITE WINDY ON SATURDAY. SEE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES.
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HINDER MAX TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND. GENERAL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND TURNING
SOUTHWEST MONDAY. THE MIDRANGE MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER IN A
SOLUTION THAT STRENGTHENS A TROUGH OVER THE PACNW MONDAY AND DIGS
SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION TUE. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TUE AS THE TROUGH
DRAWS NEARER. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER AND BREEZY TO
WINDY.
THE MODELS BRING A CLOSED 500 MB LOW INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
TUE NIGHT AND WED AND PUSH A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WED MORNING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. 700 MB
TEMPS NEAR ZERO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTS WED NGT SO
THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL WED NGT AND THU MORNING ABOVE
ABOUT 12K FEET. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THOSE AREAS MAY RESULT
IN ACCUMULATION SMALL HAIL AT HIGH ELEVATIONS AS WELL.
FRIDAY WILL SEE DRIER CONDITIONS AND POST FRONTAL/POST TROUGH NW
FLOW ALOFT...WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
MECHANICAL CHOP WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE TURBULENCE CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST
UTAH WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS UTAH AND WRN COLORADO...REACHING
THE SRN UTAH AND COLORADO BORDER BY 00Z SATURDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED -SHRA OR -TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z SATURDAY
CONTINUING THROUGH 03Z SATURDAY EVENING.
SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25-35KTS WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 16Z SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH VERY LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL KEEP CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS GOING UNTIL
ABOUT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT AND PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AREAS WITHIN THE WARNING INCLUDE FIRE
ZONES 290..292...203 AND 207 BELOW 9500 FEET. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NE UT...AND NW AND CENTRAL CO SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT PUSH THROUGH SOUTHWEST CO UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON.
THUS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND DRY FUELS SHOULD
REDEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SOUTHWEST CO...INCLUDING
FIRE ZONES 290 AND 207 BELOW 9500 FEET. AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MOAB TO DELTA SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH LESS WIND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER LEVELS NOW CONFINED TO THE GREEN RIVER IN NORTHEAST UTAH
AND EXTREME NORTHWEST COLORADO. EVEN THOUGH LEVELS ARE DROPPING
ON AREA WATERWAYS...FLOWS WILL REMAIN SWIFT FOR AT LEAST A FEW
MORE WEEKS AS HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK CONTINUES TO MELT OFF.
PAY ATTENTION TO RIVER...CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS AND WATCH FOR
DEBRIS BUILDUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF YOU PLAN ON BOATING DOWN OR
RECREATING NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ207-290.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JDC
FIRE WEATHER...CC
HYDROLOGY...JAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
858 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND MOVES OFFSHORE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE AREA
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT WILL
EXIT THIS MORNING.
SKIES WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR THAN EARLIER THOUGHT WITH
MOISTURE IN THE 800-900 HPA LAYER (SEE CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER N.
JERSEY).
LATEST RAP RUNS SUGGEST WE DONE FULLY BREAK OUT UNTIL MID AFTN.
HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80...WARMEST AROUND THE NYC
METRO.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND CONTINUED SE SWELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OFF THE NE COAST LATE THIS EVENING
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
OFFSHORE LATE MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...MOVING OFFSHORE ON MON. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND/OR TROF APPROACHES LATE MON. TRENDS OVER THE
LAST 24H SUGGEST A STRONGER UPPER RIDGE WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVING A
TOUGH TIME MOVING INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT/TUE.
HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S ON MON...AND EVEN
COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE AROUND 80. LOWS IN THE 50S SUN MORNING
WILL RISE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MON MORNING...WITH THE LOWER TO MID
50S INLAND...AND THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT THE COAST. NEARLY
SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS ON SAT WILL RISE TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY MON.
EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN AS WELL WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS WITH A LEAD
MID LEVEL IMPULSE LATE MON NIGHT...THEN BETTER CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION TUE AND ESPECIALLY WED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL SINK TO THE SOUTH ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH...BUT STILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
AND SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POP. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE FRONT
WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRI WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS...OR KEEP PUSHING TO THE SOUTH WHICH INDICATES LESS
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT.
ABOVE AVG TEMPS EARLY THIS WEEK SHOULD RETURN CLOSER TO AVG THU-
FRI AFTER COLD FROPA.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY WITH A GUST NW SFC FLOW.
IN AND OUT OF 2500` CIGS UNTIL MID MORNING THAT LIFTS TO VFR 3500`
CIGS INTO THE EARLY AFTN. ALL CIGS SCATTER OUT FOR THE MID AFTN.
NW SFC WINDS GUSTING 20-25KT THIS AFTN UNTIL EARLY EVENING.
FOR THE NY METRO DIRECTION WILL FAVOR JUST RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY. HOWEVER, KJFK MAY BACK JUST LEFT OF 310 LATE THIS
AFTN FOR THE INTL DEPARTURE BANK. MORE ON THAT WITH NEXT UPDATE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN-MON...VFR.
.TUE-WED...SCT AFTN TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NW WINDS PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING...AND THERE COULD BE
OCCASIONAL NEAR SHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THINKING IS THAT THE COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY OF SUCH GUSTS ARE NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT UP A SCA FOR THIS. WINDS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK ALONG WITH
A LACK OF BUILDING SEA SWELL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA NEXT WEEK...NEITHER
OF WHICH AT THIS TIME POSES A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THREAT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WHILE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH A SE SWELL TO PRODUCE
WATER LEVELS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS
AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS LAST NIGHT...A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND
DIMINISHING SWELL TODAY MAKE THIS SCENARIO LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR
AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...WHICH IS THE HIGHER OF THE TWO
HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JC/TONGUE
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
830 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE ORLANDO KISSIMMEE AREA
DISSIPATE THROUGH 10 PM. THE MID AND HIGH OVERCAST SKY THINS OUT
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND BECOMES A HIGH THIN OVERCAST BY SUNRISE
MONDAY MORNING. FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH
INTERIOR AND LOW 70S...MID 70S IN URBAN AREAS...STILL A GOOD CALL
AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST TEMPERATURE/PRECIP SUMMARY.
WILL UPDATE TO ZONES TO REMOVE THE SHOWERS AND STORM BY LATE
EVENING.
PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
CURRENT...15Z CAPE SOUNDING HAS COME IN A LITTLE MORE MOIST AT 1.89
INCHES FOR PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE TEMPERATURE AT 500 MB HAS ALSO
COOLED AND WAS -10.1C. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMED LATE THIS
MORNING AND IS MAKING GOOD PROGRESS INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
BOUNDARY HAS ALSO SPARKED CONVECTION ALONG IT ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. THE STEERING FLOW REMAINS OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION SO SOME
ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT BACK TO THE COAST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF VERO
BEACH. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL AGAIN DISSIPATE LATER
IN THE EVENING.
TONIGHT...LOW-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH THE AXIS NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
DAYBREAK MON MORNING. MILD LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL FALL TO LIGHT OR CALM MOST PLACES.
MON-TUE... REMNANT TROF OF A WEAK STNRY FRONT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
WILL DISRUPT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ENOUGH TO ALLOW ITS WRN
EXTENSION TO PINCH OFF OVER THE NE GOMEX BY DAYBREAK MON.
EVENTUALLY...THIS BUBBLE HIGH WILL MERGE WITH THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TO BECOME ITS OWN SEPARATE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BY DAYBREAK TUE. THIS POSITION WILL GENERATE A LIGHT N/NE
FLOW THRU THE H100-H70 LYR ACRS CENTRAL FL. OF ALL LCL ENVIRONMENTAL
FLOW REGIMES...ON A MEAN NW FLOW IS LESS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE.
BROAD AND DISORGANIZED SFC/LOW LVL PGRAD ON MON AS THE MERGER TAKES
PLACE...ALLOWING BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO DVLP BY
MIDDAY AND PUSH WELL INLAND. IN ADDITION...DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR THRU THE H85-H50 LYR AS A MID LVL TROF AND ITS ATTENDANT
VORTICITY BAND OVER THE FL PANHANDLE PRESSES DOWN THE PENINSULA EN
ROUTE TO THE NRN BAHAMAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER SFC HEATING/MID
LVL INSTABILITY AS THE MID/UPR LVL DEBRIS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT WITH THE
H70-H50 TEMP DIFFERENTIAL YIELDING LAPSE RATES ARND 6.5C/KM. POPS
WILL BE SPLIT 30/40 COASTAL/INTERIOR...TEMPS NEAR CLIMO AVG.
ON TUE...AS DEEP LYR NERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACRS CENTRAL
FL...MID LVL DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO DROP LYR
PWAT VALUES TO 1.2"-1.3" AS CENTRAL FL GAINS THE DESCENDING BACKSIDE
OF THE MID LVL TROF. WILL LWR POPS 10PCT ACRS THE BOARD FROM
MON...20 COAST/30 INTERIOR WITH TSRAS REDUCED TO SLGT CHC. DEEP
ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP OFFSET THE INCREASED SUNSHINE...KEEPING TEMPS
NEAR AVG.
WED-SAT...GFS/ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE INDICATE THE NRN JET STREAM
LIFTING INTO CANADA THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET BCMG VIRTUALLY NONEXISTENT. AS A RESULT...RIDGING
OVER THE SRN TIER WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING INTO THE ATLC AS
PREVIOUSLY FCST. AS NRN STREAM STORM SYSTEMS PUSH INTO THE ERN
CONUS/WRN ATLC...THEY WILL REINFORCE A PERSISTENT TROFFING PATTERN
OVER THE WRN ATLC... ADDING AN SIGNIFICANT HURDLE TO THE EFFORTS OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS TO REBUILD ACRS THE REGION.
PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE DEEP/MID SOUTH WILL GENERATE A DEEP ERLY
FLOW THRU THE H100-H70 LYR...A PATTERN THAT FAVORS THE W FL
PENINSULA FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. THE 15/00Z GFS/ECMWF NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE RESPONDED BY DROPPING POPS LARGELY BLO THE 30PCT MARK.
POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG THE TREASURE COAST/LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION
WED/THU AS THE DEEP ERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW AN INVERTED TROF TO DVLP ON
THE SRN FLANK OF THE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY SHOULD THE MID LVL TROF
PINCH OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW IN THE VCNTY OF THE BAHAMA BANK. STEADY
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MAX/MIN TEMPS NEAR AVG.
&&
.AVIATION...VCTS UNTIL 02Z IN THE ORLANDO SANFORD INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORTS THEN FEW030-050 TO CLEAR BELOW FL120 AFTER 06Z.
PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS MAKING FAIRLY QUICK PROGRESS INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS HAVE BECOME EASTERLY ALONG THE COAST. THIS
FEATURE HAS ALSO SPARKED SCATTERED STORMS ALONG IT. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE AS IT PRESSES INTO THE INTERIOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A
LIGHT WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ALOFT EXISTS SO SOME STORMS WILL MOVE
OFF OF THE EAST COAST. HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MANY TAF SITES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. DOWNBURST
WINDS...LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL ALL THREATS TO AVIATION INTO THIS
EVENING. AFTERNOON STORMS AGAIN ON MON FAVORING THE INTERIOR AS THE
ECSB MOVES QUICKLY INLAND AND STORM MOTION BECOMES LIGHT NORTHERLY.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENT-OVERNIGHT
BUOYS RECORDING SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET OUT TO 120NM OFFSHORE. THE TWO NOAA
BUOYS AND THE CMAN AT TRIDENT PIER PORT CANAVERAL WERE RECORDING
SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 KNOTS OR LESS. LATEST RUC MODEL RUN SHOWING THAT
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN LIGHT AND 2 FEET OR LESS REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT.
PREVIOUS MARINE FORECAST
AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON WITH EASTERLY WINDS TO 12 KTS ALONG THE COAST.
STEERING FLOW FOR STORMS WILL STILL TAKE A FEW OFF OF THE EAST COAST
INTO THE EVENING. CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ALL IN PLAY WITH STORMS INTO THIS EVENING.
ONSHORE WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY AGAIN TONIGHT AOB 10 KTS. SEAS
GENERALLY 1-2 FT NEAR SHORE AND AROUND 2 FT OFFSHORE.
MON-THU...WEAK HI PRES OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/NE GOMEX WILL DRIFT OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST THRU MIDWEEK. THIS WILL GENERATE A LIGHT TO
GENTLE E/NE BREEZE MON...SHIFTING TO E/SE BY DAYBREAK TUE AND CONTG
THRU THU NIGHT. SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL SEA CONDITIONS N OF SEBASTIAN INLET. S OF
SEBASTIAN INLET SEAS MAY BECOME CHOPPY AFT DAYBREAK WED DUE TO THE
SHADOW EFFECT OF THE NRN BAHAMAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 72 88 72 86 / 30 30 10 20
MCO 72 91 72 91 / 30 40 10 30
MLB 74 87 74 87 / 30 30 10 20
VRB 72 88 72 87 / 20 30 10 20
LEE 73 91 73 91 / 30 40 10 30
SFB 73 93 73 91 / 30 40 10 30
ORL 75 92 74 91 / 30 40 10 30
FPR 72 87 71 86 / 20 30 10 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
301 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE INTERIOR REGIONS...IN
GENERAL COVERAGE IS NOT EXTENSIVE YET WITH THE HRRR MODEL
INDICATING A LATER START TO THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER RADAR
RETURNS ALREADY INDICATED POSSIBLE HAIL IN THE CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHWEST INTERIOR BROWARD COUNTY WITH A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EARLIER ANALYSIS FROM THE 12Z SOUNDING
INDICATING AN ENHANCED 700 TO 500 HPA LAPSE RATE...DRIER AIR IN
THE HAIL GROWTH REGION OF -20 T0 -30 CELSIUS AND A THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST. THEREFORE AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH HAIL TO NEAR ONE INCH POSSIBLE AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH OR JUST OVER.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...I.E. THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND FOR THE
COVERAGE TO INCREASE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH LATEST HRRR RUNS. SO FAR THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
WINDS AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS KEEPING CONVECTION CONFINED
TO THE INTERIOR REGIONS. HOWEVER...WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE SEA
BREEZE AND CURRENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THE CONVECTION COULD STILL
AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS LATER. PLUS THERE IS LOW TO
MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT COULD HELP THE CONVECTION DRIFT
INTO THE METRO AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SUNDAS AND THEREAFTER IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD BUT COULD LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED 700-500 HPA LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THAT COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...WITH PWAT`S FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 1.6 INCHES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SEAS FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 89 75 88 / 50 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 89 78 89 / 40 30 20 20
MIAMI 77 90 77 89 / 40 30 20 30
NAPLES 73 90 73 91 / 50 30 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
948 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL
BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MODELS KEEP A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE PLUS STRONG HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT LITTLE COVERAGE BECAUSE OF SHALLOW
MOISTURE AND UPPER RIDGING. THE SPC WRF AND THE HRRR BOTH DISPLAY
MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD FALL APART SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BEING DRY. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING CONTINUING. CONVERGENCE
INTO THIS TROUGH PLUS STRONG HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGING AND JUST SHALLOW MOISTURE
EXPECT LITTLE COVERAGE. THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 20
PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING WITH SOME
WEAKENING TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS
DISPLAY LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
PATTERN SUPPORTS WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORT POPS OF 20
TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH. MOST AREAS CLEAR...WITH SOME
MID-LEVEL CU POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD RETURN TO
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. AS FOR ANY CONVECTION...EXPECT MAINLY
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. COVERAGE
LIMITED SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN ANY TAFS. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...THEN
POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
744 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TODAY AND DISSIPATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EAST TODAY WHILE THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT HAS REMAINED ACROSS SC/GA BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEAST. MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AS A RESULT. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SC DURING THE DAYTIME...
POSSIBLY REACHING OUR FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW DEEP WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES RATHER WEAK FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
90 DEGREES TODAY. INCREASING SURFACE TEMPS INLAND AND THE
WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A SEA BREEZE BEGINNING TO
PUSH INLAND BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
NORMALLY THE COMBINATION OF AN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
AND APPROXIMATELY 2000 JOULES OF CAPE WOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER THE MODERATE TO
STRONG NVA WILL CREATE SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WHICH COULD
STIFLE ANY INITIAL UPDRAFTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW 500 MB TEMPS
WARMING SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY SO THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE GETTING
LESS CONDUCIVE TO ROBUST UPDRAFTS. SOME OF THE NORMALLY WET
GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY DRY TODAY. FOR EXAMPLE THE NAM AND THE
ECMWF ARE PRETTY CONSERVATIVE WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE
DAY. WITH REGARD TO HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS...THE NSSL WRF WHICH
HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL DURING THE LAST WEEK...SHOWS
MINIMAL COVERAGE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THE RUC-13 AND HRRR BOTH SHOW SOME ACTIVITY IGNITING ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THE FIRST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED BUT IT WILL BE ISOLATED. THE
SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY COME INTO PLAY AT SOME POINT...PERHAPS
AFTER 2 PM OR SO. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS AS SOME FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONT
DROPS IN FROM THE NW AND COLLIDES WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WE BUMPED
POPS DOWN A BIT TODAY...SHOWING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE FARTHER INLAND.
ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY WANE AFTER
SUNSET. OVERNIGHT WE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS 69-74.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING EARLY IN THE EVENING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG/SEVERE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND FALL INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AT NIGHT AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT
SHIFTS SOUTH INTO FLORIDA IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...
EXPANSIVE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ALOFT. HAVE LIMITED ANY MENTION OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO MAINLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND INLAND PARTS OF
FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND DEPARTING/WEAKENING FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER 90S INLAND WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TUESDAY...STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL WITH EXPANSIVE RIDGING
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN
THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...EXPECT A
RAIN-FREE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND FROM THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SOME LATE IN THE WEEK
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED INLAND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE COAST. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
12Z SUNDAY. THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND.
LATER IN THE DAY A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA...POTENTIALLY MAINTAINING SOME ACTIVITY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MAINTAINED VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS WITH CB
CLOUDS AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADD PREVAILING OR TEMPO
THUNDERSTORMS IF TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE
DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SMALL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
MAINLY A SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2 TO
3 FT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BUMP WINDS UP CLOSE TO 15 KT
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBO OF SOME ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS THAT ARE
INCREASING THE DAILY TIDAL RANGE AND MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE A MARGINAL MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS AT THE SC BEACHES TODAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY ON
SUNDAY THEN DISSIPATE AS IT DROPS SOUTH ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. THE FLOW WILL THEN BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MINOR NOCTURNAL SURGES ARE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE MORE LIKELY BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED.
OVERALL...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN
2-3 FT. THUS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...JRL/JAQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
442 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TODAY AND DISSIPATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EAST TODAY WHILE THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT HAS REMAINED ACROSS SC/GA BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEAST. MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AS A RESULT. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SC DURING THE DAYTIME...
POSSIBLY REACHING OUR FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW DEEP WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES RATHER WEAK FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
90 DEGREES TODAY. INCREASING SURFACE TEMPS INLAND AND THE
WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A SEA BREEZE BEGINNING TO
PUSH INLAND BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
NORMALLY THE COMBINATION OF AN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
AND APPROXIMATELY 2000 JOULES OF CAPE WOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER THE MODERATE TO
STRONG NVA WILL CREATE SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WHICH COULD
STIFLE ANY INITIAL UPDRAFTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW 500 MB TEMPS
WARMING SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY SO THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE GETTING
LESS CONDUCIVE TO ROBUST UPDRAFTS. SOME OF THE NORMALLY WET
GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY DRY TODAY. FOR EXAMPLE THE NAM AND THE
ECMWF ARE PRETTY CONSERVATIVE WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE
DAY. WITH REGARD TO HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS...THE NSSL WRF WHICH
HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL DURING THE LAST WEEK...SHOWS
MINIMAL COVERAGE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THE RUC-13 AND HRRR BOTH SHOW SOME ACTIVITY IGNITING ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THE FIRST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED BUT IT WILL BE ISOLATED. THE
SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY COME INTO PLAY AT SOME POINT...PERHAPS
AFTER 2 PM OR SO. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS AS SOME FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONT
DROPS IN FROM THE NW AND COLLIDES WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WE BUMPED
POPS DOWN A BIT TODAY...SHOWING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE FARTHER INLAND.
ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY WANE AFTER
SUNSET. OVERNIGHT WE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS 69-74.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING EARLY IN THE EVENING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG/SEVERE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND FALL INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AT NIGHT AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT
SHIFTS SOUTH INTO FLORIDA IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...
EXPANSIVE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ALOFT. HAVE LIMITED ANY MENTION OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO MAINLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND INLAND PARTS OF
FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND DEPARTING/WEAKENING FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER 90S INLAND WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TUESDAY...STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL WITH EXPANSIVE RIDGING
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN
THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...EXPECT A
RAIN-FREE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND FROM THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SOME LATE IN THE WEEK
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED INLAND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE COAST. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK THOUGH WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER AT EITHER TERMINAL AS SOME WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. PRIMARY SHOT AT CONVECTION WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND A
BIT EARLIER THAN ON FRIDAY. LATER IN THE DAY A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA...POTENTIALLY
MAINTAINING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WE ADDED
VICINITY THUNDER TO BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADD PREVAILING OR TEMPO
THUNDER IF TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SMALL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
MAINLY A SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2 TO
3 FT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BUMP WINDS UP CLOSE TO 15 KT
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBO OF SOME ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS THAT ARE
INCREASING THE DAILY TIDAL RANGE AND MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE A MARGINAL MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS AT THE SC BEACHES TODAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY ON
SUNDAY THEN DISSIPATE AS IT DROPS SOUTH ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. THE FLOW WILL THEN BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MINOR NOCTURNAL SURGES ARE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE MORE LIKELY BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED.
OVERALL...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN
2-3 FT. THUS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ/JRL
MARINE...JAQ/JRL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
600 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING
TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY THIS
EVENING AS UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH REGION. SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING DOWN THE CANADIAN COAST. THIS
LOW IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL PRODUCE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE NEAR LAKE WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN
IDAHO PRODUCING ANOTHER COLD...RAW AND SHOWERY DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. ON WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING AND DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.
VALLE
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CLOSED LOW OVER
THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING AND
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND THE AXIS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND TRANSITION
SE ID INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. PASSING SHORTWAVES OVER THE WEEKEND MAY
BRING BACK THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS.
EP
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. HRRR SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SPREADING INTO EAST IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. NAM IS
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP TODAY...BUT IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
PRECIP TOMORROW MORNING AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS INTO THE PAC NW AND CLOSES OFF A LOW OVER WASHINGTON. MOS
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS AS EARLY AS NOON
TOMORROW...BUT KEEPING SITES VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD. HINSBERGER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE BUILDING UP AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
THAT WILL DROP INTO THE PAC NW TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY THROUGH AROUND MID-WEEK.
WE SHOULD ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MONDAY. THE
UPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED
AFTER WEDNESDAY. HINSBERGER
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
632 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
239 PM CDT
OVERALL OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PREVIOUS THOUGHTS
OF AN ISOLATED AT BEST SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
18Z ILX RAOB AS WELL AS RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOW A
PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION ROUGHLY BETWEEN 900 MB AND A BIT
ABOVE 800 MB. FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND CONVERGENCE ON THE WANE
AS PREVIOUSLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS VEER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS
IT APPROACHES AND PASSES THE MS RIVER. THUS DESPITE EXPECTATION OF
SOME COOLING OF WARM LAYER ALOFT AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO RISE
INTO THE 60S...THE PIECES REALLY ARE NOT THERE FOR ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE...WITH MUCH SHALLOWER AND RAGGED CU FROM FAR EASTERN IA
AND ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL AS COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH CLOSER
TO THE HEART OF SHORT WAVE.
MODIFYING ILX SOUNDING TO CURRENT CONDITIONS STILL ONLY YIELDS A BIT
OVER 1000 J/KG OF TALL SKINNY CAPE ABOVE CAP. THUS EVEN AS CAP
ERODES SOME THIS AFTERNOON...NOT EXPECTING ROBUST UPDRAFT
ACCELERATION FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. THIS REALLY PRECLUDES A
HAIL THREAT. PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE ALREADY STRONG SOUTHERLY
SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 900 MB SEEN
ON SOUNDINGS YIELDING A BIT UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE. PRESSURE
FALLS AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE SUPPORTED FREQUENT MIXING DOWN
OF THE MID-UPPER 30S KT GUSTS AT THE TOP OF THE CHANNEL.
THEREFORE...EVEN A LINE OF SHRA THAT APPEAR MEAGER ON RADAR COULD
TAP INTO THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT AND PRODUCE GUSTS HIGHER
THAN THE ALREADY STRONG SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN GUSTS.
GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE THOUGHTS AND ALSO LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR REALLY
BACKING DOWN ON SHRA COVERAGE...HAVE SCALED BACK POPS AND WORDING
INTO PRIMARILY CHANCE RANGE. ONLY MAINTAINED LOW-END LIKELIES IN
SOUTHEASTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE TIMING OF EROSION OF CAP
AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE OFFERS A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS.
RC
&&
.DISCUSSION...
315 PM CDT
SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED AND HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. THERE
WILL BE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PLEASE SEE THE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ABOUT STORMS TODAY.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ITS COLD FRONT
EXTENDS THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN...EASTERN IOWA...AND THEN BACK
THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PUSH EAST
AHEAD OF IT. THINKING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REALLY WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND MAY ONLY HAVE A FEW LINGERING STORMS EAST OF A
VALPARAISO INDIANA TO PAXTON ILLINOIS LINE.
WINDS WILL ALSO TURN WEST AND DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
REGION. FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT BUT RIGHT NOW THINKING IT WILL ONLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 3 OR 4 MILES IN PARTS SO DID NOT PUT FOG IN THE
FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER INDIANA/CENTRAL IL. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS FIRE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TOMORROW BUT
HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE AND OCCURRENCE OF STORMS.
AS SUCH CAPPED POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO USHER IN WARM AIR AND LOOKING AT A TOASTY DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 AWAY FROM THE LAKE. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED
AND THAT WILL KEEP DOWNTOWN TEMPERATURES AROUND 80.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TOMORROW AND MOVES
OVER WISCONSIN. EXPECTING BETTER STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE TO
BE OVER WISCONSIN...BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
I-80. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA REACHES SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND REMAINS RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A
STRETCH OF VERY SUMMERY WEATHER. A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE
PLAINS TUESDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH NO LAKE
BREEZE RELIEF DOWNTOWN.
A STATIONARY FRONT HANGS OUT OVER SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY. EXPECTING
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY MORNING DISSIPATE. GIVEN THE
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND LIFT FROM THE FRONT...MAY SEE ISOLATE
STORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIMITED POPS TO THE CHANCE
RANGE AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED.
THE WARM FRONT FROM THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE OVER THE MIDWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN WHERE IT WILL BE EXACTLY BUT THE
FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE THE LIFT NEEDED TO FIRE STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM BECAUSE IF THE FRONT IS FARTHER NORTH WE MAY NOT SEE ANY
STORMS. ONCE AGAIN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE NORTH OF
I-80 AND GREATEST ALONG THE WI/IL STATE LINE.
EXTENDED...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF KEY FEATURES
CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE EXTENDED. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF AND GEM BRING
THE LOW EAST QUICKER THAN THE GFS. THURSDAY LOOKS STORMY WITH THE
PLAINS WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND ITS COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WENT WITH ALLBLEND
POPS DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE.
THE EXTENDED STARTS OFF WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY TO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE A
LITTLE LAKE COOLING OVER LAKE COUNTY IL DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT.
* POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE TURNING THE WIND EASTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EASING ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
IL EARLY THIS EVE. THE BEST SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM
POTENTIAL WITH THIS WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF THE CHICAGO METRO
AREA BY 01Z. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN SPEED...LIKELY
LOSING MOST OF THE GUSTS AFTER SUNDOWN. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE
FOR A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IN THE TAFS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOWER
CLOUDS. THESE ARE MOST FAVORED NEAR WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
TONIGHT WHICH IS SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ENABLE LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION INLAND. HOWEVER...BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN A
SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC WIND WHICH SHOULD SLOW ITS PROGRESSION IN
NORTHEAST IL AND LIKELY PUSH IT NORTHWARD. THUS IT COULD BE A
SITUATION WHERE MDW AND ORD TURN EASTERLY FOR A COUPLE/FEW HOURS
AND THEN TURN BACK SOUTHERLY. A REGIME FAVORING LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS FORECAST JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD...DURING
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN
FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* LOW THAT ANY MVFR FOG WOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT.
* LOW IN LAKE BREEZE REACHING ORD AND MEDIUM IN IT REACHING MDW ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING TSRA AND THEN A CHANCE AGAIN
LATE IN THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...CHANCES OF PERIODIC TSRA.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
210 PM CDT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. A RATHER STOUT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...HAS SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
MOST OF THE STRONGEST FLOW OVER THE LAKE HAS REMAINED ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AT THE WATER SURFACE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE. IT APPEARS THE STRONG STABILITY OVER THE
LAKE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CUT DOWN ON THE WINDS AND WAVES HERE.
HOWEVER...THE WINDS MAY INCREASE SOME OVER THE OPEN WATERS YET THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS SHOULD ABATE LAKE-WIDE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE LAKE FROM THE WEST.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS THAT A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE LAKE AS
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE NORTH END OF THE
LAKE AND MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL ZONE COULD ALSO
SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF FOG OVER THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE HIGH DEW POINT AIR MASS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE OVER
THE COLD WATERS. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW EPISODES
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LAKE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THIS FRONT SETS UP OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD POSE
A SEVERE THREAT TO PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
647 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
THE OVERNIGHT MCS HAS LEFT A COOLER AND CLOUDY DAY IN IT`S WAKE
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THROUGHOUT THE REST OF KANSAS SKIES
ARE CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S LOW 80S.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
TONIGHT:
THE CONCERN FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS
WANING...AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. MIXED LAYER CIN IS AROUND 200 J/KG WITH ONLY 500 J/KG CAPE AS
OF 3PM FROM SPC MESO ANALYSIS. THINK THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
DAYTIME CONVECTION AT BAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
DAYTIME RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...LATER
TONIGHT THINGS WILL CHANGE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND WITH PLENTIFUL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
OR MOVE IN FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN TIME
FRAME OF CONCERN WILL BE BETWEEN 10PM- MORNING. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED AND
GUSTY WINDS TO 60 MPH. MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MY MONDAY MORNING AND
AS SKIES CLEAR THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT.
MONDAY - WEDNESDAY:
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WARM AND WINDY. KANSAS WILL SIT
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THE GULF WIDE OPEN. AS A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS MONDAY...SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ON
MONDAY THAN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH WINDS APPROACHING THE 30 MPH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...AS FORECAST WINDS ARE JUST SKIRTING THE
CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE REGION...HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100 IN A FEW
PLACES.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE AS THE NEXT
UPPER WAVE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
THE NEXT FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE MAIN UPPER
DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT GETS CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN
FLOW AND HOVERS OVER NORTH DAKOTA/CANADA BORDER. THIS PUSHES THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MORE OF A ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW. BECAUSE OF THIS THE EXTENDED
HAS PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT. RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT OCCUR
ALL THE TIME...BUT EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS DIFFICULT WITH
THE DESCREPANCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME PERIODS
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG A
DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THIS EVENING. OTHER MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES IN
RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE LLJ NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NORTH TONIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 09-13Z
BEFORE VFR RETURNS TO THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 71 94 74 92 / 10 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 70 94 74 94 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 69 92 73 92 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 69 90 73 90 / 20 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 71 92 74 90 / 20 10 10 10
RUSSELL 66 96 73 97 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 67 96 72 96 / 10 10 10 10
SALINA 69 94 75 95 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 69 93 73 93 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 71 90 73 89 / 50 10 10 10
CHANUTE 70 90 72 89 / 30 10 10 10
IOLA 69 90 72 89 / 30 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 70 89 74 89 / 50 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1131 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
A FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS DEVELOPED AND MOVED INTO MCCREARY COUNTY OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT BOTH WERE SMALL BOTH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE...AND HAVE SINCE ALMOST COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. ACCORDING TO
SATELLITE...A SMALL BAND OF CLOUDS HAVE SET UP ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
REGION JUST SE OF KY. ALONG WITH THIS BAND OF CLOUDS...SOME SPOTTY
VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES HAVE FORMED OVER THE LAST HOUR. AT THE CURRENT
RADAR AND SATELLITE TREND...EXPECT THESE SPRINKLES TO REMAIN SE OF
THE MOUNTAIN RIDGE/STATE LINE DIVIDE CAUSING LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO
OUR CWA OTHER THAN SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER OVER BELL THROUGH
LETCHER COUNTY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK. ONCE
AGAIN...UPDATED THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA FOR TEMPS...WINDS...AND DEW POINTS...TO MAKE SURE THE ONGOING
CONDITIONS ARE REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
SOME ISOLATED PULSY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO
INCREASE ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL AS CHANCES OF SPRINKLES FURTHER
NORTHWARD...COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. STILL EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS TO DIE DOWN SHORTLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO DECIDED TO UPDATE THE SKY GRIDS TO
BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND A DIMINISHING TREND INTO THE
EVENING. WENT AHEAD AND LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE
TO MAKE SURE ONGOING GRIDS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE
WELL REFLECTIVE OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF KENTUCKY WHILE A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...IS SLOWLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE EXIT OF
THE HIGH HAS ALLOWED WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO EAST
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THOUGH
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY HAS GONE PARTLY CLOUDY DUE TO
SOME HEALTHY CU DEVELOPMENT. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP DRAMATICALLY
WITH READINGS NOW IN THE MID 60S FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWA AND LOW 60S TO THE NORTH. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KTS HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY RECENTLY. ALSO RECENTLY...SOME LIGHT RETURNS HAVE
SHOWN UP ON RADAR OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT THE CONTINUING INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK. A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LIFT INTO
CENTRAL CANADA...NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AN INTO THE DAY
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO...ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN...
BUT NOT BEFORE DRAGGING THE REMAINS OF SOME ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
ITS TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER HEIGHTS LOCALLY INTO THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE STORM TRACK IS
SHUNTED EVEN FURTHER NORTH. DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE
WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME SPRINKLES AND A STRAY SHOWER
AROUND THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
BEFORE EVERYTHING CLEARS OUT INCLUDING THE BULK OF THE CU. THIS WILL
SET UP ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING INDUCED RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES...THOUGH LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF VALLEY FOG
LATE TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND DEWPOINTS
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT. FOR MONDAY...THE REMAINS OF THE
500MB TROUGH...SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS...AND A WEAKENING FRONT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY...
MAINLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF BY
EVENING AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT...INTO THE EVENING. MORE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUDS ON MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALL CATEGORY ALONG WITH ANY FOG
CONFINED TO JUST THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS.
ONCE AGAIN STARTED WITH THE BCCONSSHORT FOR T/TD AND WINDS THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE CONTINUING WITH BCCONSALL. DID MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE VALLEY AND RIDGE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT MONDAY NIGHT...DUE TO SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR
POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE KEPT THEM LOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
PATTERN IN PLACE. PERSISTENT MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDE OVER THE RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A PERSISTENT TROUGH MAINTAINS
ITSELF OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THE ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW DOES NOT
TRACK INTO THE UPPER PLAINS UNTIL FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AT THE
END OF THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR AVAILABLE. THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP SOME
AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE OVERALL PATTERN UNTIL THE END
OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE BLOCKING.
THE CONSISTENCY LEAVES MORE TO BE DESIRED WITH THE MODELS. WITH THIS
PATTERN IN PLACE...IT BECOMES DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY RULING OUT POPS
ON ANY DAY EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. ON THE OTHER END...IT IS DIFFICULT
TO JUSTIFY PUTTING IN ANY GOOD CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME
LEVEL MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE NEARLY EVERYDAY IN THE COMING
WEEK. AS SUCH...HAVE TAILORED THIS WITH THE RESULTS OF THE ALL MODEL
BLEND AND REDUCED THEM BELOW GOOD CHANCE OR BELOW 50. FOR TUESDAY
WITH REMNANTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD...SOME SPRINKLES MAY
POP UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HIGH TERRAIN. A FEW DISTURBANCES
PASSING ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM COUPLED WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE
WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY TIME-FRAME BUT MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON EACH
DAY.
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM AS WELL WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL CREEP
TO AND POSSIBLY PAST THE 90 DEGREE MARK. A WARM AND HUMID
UNCOMFORTABLE WEEK LOOKS TO BE IN STORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WX THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FRONT BRUSHES BY.
HAVE ADDED A PREVAILING VCTS FOR THIS FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ON AT JKL
AND SJS WHILE LEAVING OUT OF THE OTHER SITES FOR NOW. EXPECT ANY FOG
TONIGHT TO BE CONFINED TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND LEAVE THE TAF SITES
UNBLEMISHED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF/JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
931 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 925 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2014
Main issue in this update is overnight POPs, especially in southern
Indiana. Different runs of the RR (aka RUC) are more optimistic than
others about precip in some of our southern Indiana counties, but
there is no support from other high-res or synoptic-scale models,
other than a hint of a slight chance in Dubois County. Did not cut
back quite that far, but did limit POPs to a slight chance over
southern Indiana and delayed the timing by a couple hours. Lack of
ongoing upstream convection and warming of cloud tops suggest even
those 20 POPs may be generous. Gridded and tabular products already
out, ZFP on the way shortly.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2014
A couple of concerns for the forecast late this afternoon and this
evening. First off, isolated thunderstorms have fired to our west
along outflow from this morning`s convection and differential
heating created by that upper level debris. Still feel pretty
confident that any shower or storm will weaken or dissipate as they
approach our CWA due to our drier airmass in place. Therefore, will
still keep our west dry until we get toward Midnight. More on that
below. A secondary max will also exist down in our Lake Cumberland and
eastern counties where an axis of better low level moisture is
located. You can see this with the swelling Cu on visible satellite.
Have seen a few blips on radar, however coverage of any brief shower
really will be less than 10 percent so will continue to leave
forecast dry unless we see an uptick in the next hour or two.
Otherwise, temperatures have climbed into the mid and upper 80s this
afternoon and may warm another degree or so before we lose peak
heating. Will a few spots hit the 90 mark?
Will continue to leave 20-40 percent chances of a shower or storm
mainly across the southern Indiana counties late this evening and
into the overnight. There is much uncertainty in how the upstream
convection will behave this evening, however any storms that do form
should gradually be steered closer to our northern CWA as the upper
ridge breaks down in response to the passing upper Midwest wave.
This change in storm mostion to a more easterly component will put
counties mainly along and north of the Ohio River under small
chances for showers or a storm toward dawn on Monday, lasting
through early afternoon. How far south storms make it into central
KY is a bit in question as well so didnt change much of the previous
forecast. Still keeping south central KY dry tomorrow, closer to the
upper ridge.
High temperatures will also be a bit tricky for tomorrow because
they will be dependent on what goes on with morning precipitation
chances. Nevertheless, temperatures in the 85-89 range seem pretty
reasonable. A few south central KY sites could touch 90.
Expect lows tonight in the 65-70 degree range, slightly milder
Monday night with lows in the 67-72.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2014
As already fairly well advertised, one of the big weather stories of
this upcoming week will be the heat and humidity building into the
region at the start of the long-term period. Ensemble guidance
continues to show Tuesday through Thursday being the best timing for
above normal temperatures in and around the forecast area and the
consistency adds to the confidence. This is all in thanks to
upper-level ridging grabbing a good hold over the SE U.S. by the
start of this period through at least late Wednesday. By Thursday
onward, deterministic models hint at the ridge breaking down as an
upper low scoots across the upper Plains. There are distinct
differences and model disagreements for Thursday through the
remainder of the long-term period, however. The 12Z GFS is much more
bullish than the 12Z ECMWF, for example, with this low. Spatial and
temporal differences within the models add to the challenging
forecast for the extended period. Nevertheless, with the general
agreement of the collapse of the ridge`s hold, leaving the door open
for several shortwaves to track through the region, could be up for
an unsettled pattern Thursday through the weekend.
Doesn`t appear that there will be much support for convection
Tuesday through potentially Wednesday. If storms do fire up on
Wednesday, they should remain isolated in nature and focused
primarily across the northern portions of the forecast area. With
moisture having plenty of opportunities to pool into the region by
Wednesday afternoon and instability readily available, the question
will be how capped the atmosphere will be. Entering into Thursday,
have gone with low end chance PoPs with chances seemingly increasing
Friday and Saturday.
The warmest days/nights will be Tuesday through Thursday. As we
undergo a pattern change by the end of the week, temps should return
to near normal. Apparent temps on Tuesday and Wednesday look to
range from the low to mid 90s with actual forecast highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. For Thursday, could still see temps near or
slightly above the 90 degree mark but Friday through the weekend
look to top out in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will be their warmest
on Tuesday night through Thursday night, struggling to drop below
the 70 degree mark for many locations. For the rest of the period,
lows should drop into the upper 60s or so.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2014
VFR conditions will continue through the valid TAF period, with just
the diurnal variations in cu and wind speeds out of the S-SW. Weak
cold front over Illinois and Indiana will edge closer to the Ohio
River as Monday progresses, and we can`t rule out a stray afternoon
shower in SDF. However, precip chances are too low to carry it in
the TAF. At this point will just carry a bit more mid-level cloud
cover.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RAS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......lg
Aviation.......RAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
753 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
SOME ISOLATED PULSY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO
INCREASE ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL AS CHANCES OF SPRINKLES FURTHER
NORTHWARD...COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. STILL EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS TO DIE DOWN SHORTLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO DECIDED TO UPDATE THE SKY GRIDS TO
BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND A DIMINISHING TREND INTO THE
EVENING. WENT AHEAD AND LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE
TO MAKE SURE ONGOING GRIDS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE
WELL REFLECTIVE OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF KENTUCKY WHILE A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...IS SLOWLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE EXIT OF
THE HIGH HAS ALLOWED WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO EAST
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THOUGH
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY HAS GONE PARTLY CLOUDY DUE TO
SOME HEALTHY CU DEVELOPMENT. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP DRAMATICALLY
WITH READINGS NOW IN THE MID 60S FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWA AND LOW 60S TO THE NORTH. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KTS HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY RECENTLY. ALSO RECENTLY...SOME LIGHT RETURNS HAVE
SHOWN UP ON RADAR OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT THE CONTINUING INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK. A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LIFT INTO
CENTRAL CANADA...NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AN INTO THE DAY
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO...ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN...
BUT NOT BEFORE DRAGGING THE REMAINS OF SOME ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
ITS TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER HEIGHTS LOCALLY INTO THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE STORM TRACK IS
SHUNTED EVEN FURTHER NORTH. DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE
WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME SPRINKLES AND A STRAY SHOWER
AROUND THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
BEFORE EVERYTHING CLEARS OUT INCLUDING THE BULK OF THE CU. THIS WILL
SET UP ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING INDUCED RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES...THOUGH LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF VALLEY FOG
LATE TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND DEWPOINTS
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT. FOR MONDAY...THE REMAINS OF THE
500MB TROUGH...SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS...AND A WEAKENING FRONT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY...
MAINLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF BY
EVENING AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT...INTO THE EVENING. MORE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUDS ON MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALL CATEGORY ALONG WITH ANY FOG
CONFINED TO JUST THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS.
ONCE AGAIN STARTED WITH THE BCCONSSHORT FOR T/TD AND WINDS THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE CONTINUING WITH BCCONSALL. DID MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE VALLEY AND RIDGE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT MONDAY NIGHT...DUE TO SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR
POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE KEPT THEM LOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
PATTERN IN PLACE. PERSISTENT MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDE OVER THE RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A PERSISTENT TROUGH MAINTAINS
ITSELF OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THE ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW DOES NOT
TRACK INTO THE UPPER PLAINS UNTIL FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AT THE
END OF THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR AVAILABLE. THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP SOME
AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE OVERALL PATTERN UNTIL THE END
OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE BLOCKING.
THE CONSISTENCY LEAVES MORE TO BE DESIRED WITH THE MODELS. WITH THIS
PATTERN IN PLACE...IT BECOMES DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY RULING OUT POPS
ON ANY DAY EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. ON THE OTHER END...IT IS DIFFICULT
TO JUSTIFY PUTTING IN ANY GOOD CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME
LEVEL MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE NEARLY EVERYDAY IN THE COMING
WEEK. AS SUCH...HAVE TAILORED THIS WITH THE RESULTS OF THE ALL MODEL
BLEND AND REDUCED THEM BELOW GOOD CHANCE OR BELOW 50. FOR TUESDAY
WITH REMNANTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD...SOME SPRINKLES MAY
POP UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HIGH TERRAIN. A FEW DISTURBANCES
PASSING ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM COUPLED WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE
WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY TIME-FRAME BUT MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON EACH
DAY.
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM AS WELL WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL CREEP
TO AND POSSIBLY PAST THE 90 DEGREE MARK. A WARM AND HUMID
UNCOMFORTABLE WEEK LOOKS TO BE IN STORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WX THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FRONT BRUSHES BY.
HAVE ADDED A PREVAILING VCTS FOR THIS FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ON AT JKL
AND SJS WHILE LEAVING OUT OF THE OTHER SITES FOR NOW. EXPECT ANY FOG
TONIGHT TO BE CONFINED TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND LEAVE THE TAF SITES
UNBLEMISHED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF/JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1221 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT WITH NO SITES CURRENTLY REPORTING MVFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION BEING SOME POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER ACADIANA. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE INCLUDING VCSH FOR BOTH LFT
AND ARA AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOIST ENOUGH
ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
AND OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TODAY. OVERNIGHT CEILINGS SHOULD
COME DOWN TO MVFR WITH THE LONE CANDIDATE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT BEING AEX. INCLUDED BR WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN
VISIBILITY FOR AEX BEGINNING AT 12Z.
RDEAL
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014/
UPDATE...GOOD SUBSIDENCE NOTED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SEABREEZE, THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR
TO PREDICTED 91 AT BPT. MORNING SOUNDING MINIMALLY UNSTABLE.
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON POPS STILL LOOKING GOOD. NO CHANGES NEEDED.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014/
AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. SOME LIGHT FOG
ONGOING AT LCH EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL BE DISSIPATING SOON.
ALL OTHER TERMINALS SHOWING NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. FOR
TODAY...WHILE MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...SHARPLY DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...AND
AT THIS TIME CARRYING JUST VCSH AT LFT AND ARA WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL START OUT THE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM. SCATTERED CU AHEAD FOR TODAY WITH SOME THIN
CIRRUS ALOFT. VFR.
MARCOTTE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WEAK BOUNDARY MOVED DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND HELP STORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY MADE
IT`S WAY TO THE COAST BEFORE STALLING AND IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF
WASHING OUT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AFTER
SUNRISE. WE ARE IN A VERY PERSISTENT/ OR TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER
PATTERN THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
HOT AFTERNOONS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THESE
WILL BE THE HIT OR MISS TYPE STORMS. WARM MUGGY MORNINGS TO START
OUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST DURING
THE DAY. THE TROPIC`S REMAIN QUIET.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 89 73 89 76 89 / 10 10 20 10 20
KBPT 91 75 90 77 91 / 10 10 20 10 20
KAEX 90 71 90 73 91 / 10 10 20 10 20
KLFT 91 74 89 75 90 / 20 10 30 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
905 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAKE A VERY SLOW RETURN TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
545 AM UPDATE: THE OVRRNG SHIELD OF STEADY RNFL HAS MSLY MOVED
NE OF THE FA ERLY THIS MORN...LEAVING PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION WITH SCT LGT SHWRS ACROSS THE N. HRRR HRLY MODEL
SIM RADAR RED SHOWS THE COLD FRONTAL BAND OF SHWRS MOVG INTO WRN
PTNS OF THE FA BY ERLY AFTN AND CROSSING INTO ERN PTNS OF THE
REGION DURG THE MID TO LATE AFTN HRS WITH ANOTHER TENTH TO TWO
TENTHS OF ADDITIONAL RNFL. POPS...WHICH WERE RAMPED DOWN MORE TO
CHC CAT FOR THIS MORN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA...ARE RAMPED BACK UP
TO CATEGORICAL LVLS BY AFTN BASED ON THE HRRR SIM RADAR OUTPUT.
THE SRN END OF THE SHWRS COULD FORM INTO A DEFORMATION RN BAND
THAT COULD LINGER INTO THE EVE HRS OVR SE ME AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTS TO CLOSE OFF OVR THE GULF OF ME. NO CHGS NEEDED TO FCST HRLY
TEMPS INTO THE MIDDAY HRS BASED ON A CLOSE MATCH OF OBSVD VS FCST
HRLY TEMPS AT 5 AND 6 AM.
ORGNL DISC: THE MAIN SHIELD OF OVRRNG RNFL AHEAD OF THE 925-850MB
WARM FRONT WILL END SW TO NE ACROSS THE ERN HLF OF THE FA OVR THE
NEXT FEW HRS. AFT A BREAK OF A FEW HRS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SHWRS... OTHER SHWRS WILL MOVE E FROM QB...OR FORM OVR THE REGION
BY AFTN AS A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM
QB PROV. DUE TO THE SLOWNESS OF THE FRONT...SHWRS/RN WILL NOT HAVE
COMPLETELY EXIT THE FA TNGT...WITH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
RUNS BOTH INDICATING THE FORMATION OF AN UPPER LOW OVR THE GULF OF
ME NOT SHOWN A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO FOR THIS PD...WHICH WILL SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE BACK EDGE OF SHWRS/RNFL SPCLY OVR THE SE PTN OF THE
FA UNTIL SUN.
HI TEMPS THIS AFTN WERE LOWERED ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEG F FROM THE LAST
FCST UPDATE DUE TO MORE XPCTD SHWR AND CLD CVRG. THIS LOWERS THE
POTENTIAL OF THUNDER ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE IT FOR THE AFTN/EVE HRS
AS WE DID IN YSTDY`S UPDATE ATTM. DUE TO CLD CVR HOLDING ON ACROSS
THE REGION...XCPT FOR THE FAR W...OVRNGT LOW TEMPS WILL NOT HAVE
THE OPPORTUNITY TO FALL AS MUCH AS EARLIER THOUGHT...SPCLY WHEN
COMBINED WITH A FRESHENING N BREEZE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
9 AM UDPATE...ONLY A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA ALTHOUGH DRIZZLE CONTINUES IN MANY PLACES. LINE OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH EASTERN AREAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING SO LOWERED PRECIP CHANCE
DURING THE DAY TODAY TO GO ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE.
FOR SUNDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EASTWARD AND BRING CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF/GFS WAS USED. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
PERSISTING FROM NORTHEASTERN MAINE TOWARDS BANGOR AND ALL POINTS
EASTWARD IN THE MORNING. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN COULD
FALL. THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. PARTIAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WILL
SLOWLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER AND COOL
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 60S WITH A FEW LOW
70S BY MID AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS
COUNTIES. GOOD MIXING BY MID AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH. CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE LOW 40S IN THE
ALLAGASH. MID TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS MONDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
HUMIDITY. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...CIRRUS MAY
THICKEN UP AT TIMES AND LIMIT SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS MUCH WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. THIS
FRONT WILL SERVE TO INCREASE HUMIDITY ON TUESDAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS AROUND THE 80F MARK FOR MOST PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE COAST WHERE AN ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS.
A COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT. THE ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIME OF FRONTAL FORCING WILL DEFINITELY PLAY A ROLE. THE
FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 60F. STORMS WILL
RE FIRE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH THE ACTION OCCURRING FURTHER
SOUTH AND REACHING BANGOR IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTRODUCE A GENERALLY COOL REGIME WITH LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
LOWS WILL DIP TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY IFR XPCTD ACROSS THE TAF SITES TDY IN LOW CLDNSS
AND REDUCED VSBY IN MORN PATCHY FOG AND/OR OCNL SHWRS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS MOST TAF SITES TONIGHT...WITH DOWNEAST
SITES POSSIBLY BECOMING LOW VFR LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUN AM NORTH OF HUL...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
TUES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FOR BGR AND BHB.
CAR...PQI AND FVE COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS TUE EVENING. ALL SITES
MAY HAVE IFR CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 545 AM UPDATE...WE DROPPED THE SCA FOR THE INNER HARBOR/
BAY MZ052 AND CONVERTED THE GENERIC SCA FOR THE OUTER MZS050-051 TO
AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS AS PER THE PREV DISC BASED ON THE LATEST BUOY
DOWNWARD TREND OF WINDS.
ORGNL DISC...WILL CONT WITH SCA FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS TIL THE
NEXT UPDATE AT ARND 6 AM...THEN PLAN ON DROPPING INNER BAY/HARBOR
MZ052 AND CONVERTING THE SCA FOR THE OUTER MZS050-051 PLANNED TO
GO OUT TIL LATE AFTN TO AN SCA FOR HZRDS SEAS WITH WINDS NO LONGER
XPCTD TO REACH SCA THRESHOLDS. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND WV HTS
WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY TONIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF RAW
MODEL AND MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR WINDS AND WW3 FCST WV HTS
DIMINISHED BY ABOUT 25 PERCENT TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE SEASONAL
HI BIAS OF SFC- BL INPUT WINDS.
SHORT TERM:
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN BY LATER
TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH WEDS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN/MCB
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
607 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAKE A VERY SLOW RETURN TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
545 AM UPDATE: THE OVRRNG SHIELD OF STEADY RNFL HAS MSLY MOVED
NE OF THE FA ERLY THIS MORN...LEAVING PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION WITH SCT LGT SHWRS ACROSS THE N. HRRR HRLY MODEL
SIM RADAR RED SHOWS THE COLD FRONTAL BAND OF SHWRS MOVG INTO WRN
PTNS OF THE FA BY ERLY AFTN AND CROSSING INTO ERN PTNS OF THE
REGION DURG THE MID TO LATE AFTN HRS WITH ANOTHER TENTH TO TWO
TENTHS OF ADDITIONAL RNFL. POPS...WHICH WERE RAMPED DOWN MORE TO
CHC CAT FOR THIS MORN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA...ARE RAMPED BACK UP
TO CATEGORICAL LVLS BY AFTN BASED ON THE HRRR SIM RADAR OUTPUT.
THE SRN END OF THE SHWRS COULD FORM INTO A DEFORMATION RN BAND
THAT COULD LINGER INTO THE EVE HRS OVR SE ME AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTS TO CLOSE OFF OVR THE GULF OF ME. NO CHGS NEEDED TO FCST HRLY
TEMPS INTO THE MIDDAY HRS BASED ON A CLOSE MATCH OF OBSVD VS FCST
HRLY TEMPS AT 5 AND 6 AM.
ORGNL DISC: THE MAIN SHIELD OF OVRRNG RNFL AHEAD OF THE 925-850MB
WARM FRONT WILL END SW TO NE ACROSS THE ERN HLF OF THE FA OVR THE
NEXT FEW HRS. AFT A BREAK OF A FEW HRS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SHWRS... OTHER SHWRS WILL MOVE E FROM QB...OR FORM OVR THE REGION
BY AFTN AS A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM
QB PROV. DUE TO THE SLOWNESS OF THE FRONT...SHWRS/RN WILL NOT HAVE
COMPLETELY EXIT THE FA TNGT...WITH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
RUNS BOTH INDICATING THE FORMATION OF AN UPPER LOW OVR THE GULF OF
ME NOT SHOWN A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO FOR THIS PD...WHICH WILL SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE BACK EDGE OF SHWRS/RNFL SPCLY OVR THE SE PTN OF THE
FA UNTIL SUN.
HI TEMPS THIS AFTN WERE LOWERED ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEG F FROM THE LAST
FCST UPDATE DUE TO MORE XPCTD SHWR AND CLD CVRG. THIS LOWERS THE
POTENTIAL OF THUNDER ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE IT FOR THE AFTN/EVE HRS
AS WE DID IN YSTDY`S UPDATE ATTM. DUE TO CLD CVR HOLDING ON ACROSS
THE REGION...XCPT FOR THE FAR W...OVRNGT LOW TEMPS WILL NOT HAVE
THE OPPORTUNITY TO FALL AS MUCH AS EARLIER THOUGHT...SPCLY WHEN
COMBINED WITH A FRESHENING N BREEZE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EASTWARD AND BRING CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF/GFS WAS USED. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
PERSISTING FROM NORTHEASTERN MAINE TOWARDS BANGOR AND ALL POINTS
EASTWARD IN THE MORNING. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN COULD
FALL. THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. PARTIAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WILL
SLOWLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER AND COOL
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 60S WITH A FEW LOW
70S BY MID AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS
COUNTIES. GOOD MIXING BY MID AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH. CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE LOW 40S IN THE
ALLAGASH. MID TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS MONDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
HUMIDITY. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...CIRRUS MAY
THICKEN UP AT TIMES AND LIMIT SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS MUCH WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. THIS
FRONT WILL SERVE TO INCREASE HUMIDITY ON TUESDAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS AROUND THE 80F MARK FOR MOST PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE COAST WHERE AN ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS.
A COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT. THE ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIME OF FRONTAL FORCING WILL DEFINITELY PLAY A ROLE. THE
FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 60F. STORMS WILL
RE FIRE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH THE ACTION OCCURRING FURTHER
SOUTH AND REACHING BANGOR IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTRODUCE A GENERALLY COOL REGIME WITH LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
LOWS WILL DIP TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY IFR XPCTD ACROSS THE TAF SITES TDY IN LOW CLDNSS
AND REDUCED VSBY IN MORN PATCHY FOG AND/OR OCNL SHWRS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS MOST TAF SITES TONIGHT...WITH DOWNEAST
SITES POSSIBLY BECOMING LOW VFR LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUN AM NORTH OF HUL...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
TUES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FOR BGR AND BHB.
CAR...PQI AND FVE COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS TUE EVENING. ALL SITES
MAY HAVE IFR CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 545 AM UPDATE...WE DROPPED THE SCA FOR THE INNER HARBOR/
BAY MZ052 AND CONVERTED THE GENERIC SCA FOR THE OUTER MZS050-051 TO
AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS AS PER THE PREV DISC BASED ON THE LATEST BUOY
DOWNWARD TREND OF WINDS.
ORGNL DISC...WILL CONT WITH SCA FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS TIL THE
NEXT UPDATE AT ARND 6 AM...THEN PLAN ON DROPPING INNER BAY/HARBOR
MZ052 AND CONVERTING THE SCA FOR THE OUTER MZS050-051 PLANNED TO
GO OUT TIL LATE AFTN TO AN SCA FOR HZRDS SEAS WITH WINDS NO LONGER
XPCTD TO REACH SCA THRESHOLDS. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND WV HTS
WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY TONIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF RAW
MODEL AND MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR WINDS AND WW3 FCST WV HTS
DIMINISHED BY ABOUT 25 PERCENT TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE SEASONAL
HI BIAS OF SFC- BL INPUT WINDS.
SHORT TERM:
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN BY LATER
TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH WEDS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
902 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND SOUTHERN LAKE
MI HAVE STRUGGLED TO HOLD TOGETHER WHILE MOVING EAST. NOT TOO
SURPRISING GIVING THE FORCING PEELING OFF TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z DTX SOUNDING WAS STILL
VERY DRY AND HAD A STRONG CAP BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MBS. IT WILL
TAKE QUITE A BIT OF ADVECTION TO OVERCOME THAT...AND THIS SYSTEM
DOES NOT HAVE THAT. WILL LOWER POPS TO SCATTERED/CHANCE. EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCE TO BE NEAR TRI CITIES WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
INFLUENCE. THERE IS A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WAS NEAR THE IN/IL
BOARDER AND WILL GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR FAR SE LOWER.
ALSO WITH THE GIVEN ATMOSPHERE...WILL LOWER THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ALL OF THE AFTERNOON UPDATED HI RES MODELS WERE IN
LINE WITH THIS IDEA AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 723 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
//DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
COMPONENT TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
THE QUESTION FOR TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND COVERAGE. THE EVENT AS A WHOLE WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
LACK OF DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT AS WELL AS LIMITED INSTABILITY
AND DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL EVENTUALLY MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LEVELS TO SOME EXTENT AND THAT
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES AROUND
06Z FOR MBS AND BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z FOR THE DETROIT AREA TAFS.
FOR DTW...BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
TONIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET BETWEEN 09Z
AND 16Z MONDAY.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 407 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
A LINE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN ALONG A CONVERGENT STREAMLINE. THIS
CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH A ZONE OF ENHANCED
ABSOLUTE VORTICITY IN THE LATEST RUC OUTPUT. THE CONVERGENCE
STREAMER AND RIBBON OF FORCING IS TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
MIDLEVEL JET STRUCTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE SYNOPTIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE ENHANCED LINE OF CONVERGENCE OR MIDLEVEL
INFLECTION AXIS TO CAST OFF...SHEDDING DUE EASTWARD TONIGHT AS THE
LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO. THE TONIGHT PERIOD THEN
DISTILLS DOWN TO WHAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AXIS TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA. WHAT IS
COMPLICATING THIS SETUP IS THE VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE 6-12 KFT LAYER. COMBINE
THIS STABLE LAYER WITH A VERY DRY NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF 30 DEGREES...AND THE SUSPICION
IS MUCH OF THE LIFT WILL GO INTO SATURATING THE COLUMN. THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE SHOWING A REAL STRUGGLE WITH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. PROBABLY THE BEST THING GOING FOR THE SETUP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RIBBON OF MOISTURE
TO ALIGN WITH THE MEAN FLOW LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS BY NO MEANS AN
ENDORSEMENT...MORE OF A COMMENT ON THE LOW CONFIDENCE/HIGH
UNCERTAINTY. FOR THOSE REASONS...WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM THE
INHERITED POP GRIDS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DECIDE ON THIS BEING A
SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS SHOWER TYPE EVENT. TIME OF YEAR AND CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY REQUIRES A THUNDER MENTION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO SIGNAL
FOR A HIGH AMOUNT OF EXPECTED LIGHTNING. HRRR ALONG WITH 12Z WRF-NMM
MOVED TIMING UP A HAIR...LOOKING AT TIME WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION
MAINLY BETWEEN 3-9Z.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
DEFINED MOISTURE PLUME ATTENDANT TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
EASE SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY MORNING AS SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS STREAM
BY TO THE NORTH. OVERALL TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THESE FEATURES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE WILL REMAIN A WINDOW EARLY IN THE DAY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST OF A
HOWELL TO SANDUSKY LINE. MORE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN
BY AFTERNOON WITHIN A BACKGROUND OF WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL
GREATLY LIMIT THE PROSPECTS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. A WELL MIXED AND DRYING 800-925 MB LAYER
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RESPOND
ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS OF LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AREAWIDE.
RENEWED STRENGTHENING OF THE DOWNSTREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SEND
THE EXISTING HIGHER THETA-E AIR MASS BACK NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
SE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL
SLOPE WILL SUPPORT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION. THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. IN ADDITION...POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL MAINTENANCE AND
DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WILL REQUIRE ATTENTION...12Z MODEL SUITE PROVIDING A MIXED
SIGNAL ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO ENTER A PORTION OF THE
AREA.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF ANY MCS/MCV REMNANTS PLAY A DEFINITIVE
ROLE IN DEFINING THE PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION ON INTO TUESDAY. A
MORE SIZABLE CLOUD/RAIN LADEN COMPLEX ARRIVING EARLY IN THE DAY
COULD DAMPEN/DELAY THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. CONVERSELY...A
LATE DAY ARRIVAL COULD BE OPPORTUNE FOR ANCHORING A MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE EPISODE. THE COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOME
INCREASE IN THE UPPER HEIGHT FIELD WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS OF UPPER
80S...ABSENT OF A DISRUPTION OF THE HEATING CYCLE BY EARLY DAY
ACTIVITY.
EXTENDED FORECAST WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
MONDAY/TUESDAY CONVECTION. MODELS STILL ADVERTISING A BOUNDARY
SETTING UP OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS. WITH THAT...THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUAL
CHANCE FOR RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
MARINE...
A GUSTY SOUTHEAST WIND THROUGH THE EVENING PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH. GUSTS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS GIVEN THE
HIGHER DEGREE OF STABILITY OVER THE LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL
BRING WITH IT A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO MID WEEK.
THIS FRONT MAY TRIGGER SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MID WEEK PERIOD. SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......RBP
AVIATION.....RBP
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR/SS
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
755 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
GRADUALLY END MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND... AND MAY
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S THIS WEEK... WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THIS IS A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BRING STORMS INTO THE AREA A LITTLE LATER TONIGHT
BASED ON CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE. EXPECT A GOOD COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT...BUT SPC CALIBRATED SREF GUIDANCE AND
DIURNAL TIMING BOTH SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. SPC SSEO
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERALL MAY
ACTUALLY EXIST NORTH OF I-96.
CONCERN IS GROWING FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY. A STATIONARY
FRONT WILL FEATURE AN EAST-WEST AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY /4000+ J
PER KG MLCAPE/ UPSTREAM OVER WI AND FAVORABLE PARALLEL SHEAR /0-3KM
30-40 KT/. THIS SUGGESTS A PROGRESSIVE DERECHO WILL CROSS LAKE MI
AND MAINTAIN SOME INTENSITY AS IT MOVES INTO LOWER MI WHERE MLCAPE
AROUND 2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
SINCE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH THE
BOUNDARY AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE SEASONABLY HIGH AND CORFIDI
VECTORS SUGGEST THAT BACKBUILDING CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
LOW PRESSURE ZIPPING ACROSS ONTARIO TOMORROW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WON/T MOVE VERY FAR SOUTH
AND WILL BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA BY THURSDAY.
IT LOOKS LIKE THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME FAIRLY ACTIVE. A PLAINS LOW
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH FROM NEBRASKA TO NORTH DAKOTA AND THE RESULT
WILL BE THE BOUNDARY OVER LOWER MICHIGAN PIVOTING A BIT FROM E-W TO
MORE SE-NW BUT REMAINING OVER THE CWA. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...THE ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR QUITE A BIT OF
PCPN TO DEVELOP.
MODELS SHOW MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD
BUT NOT A LOT OF SHEAR. AS A RESULT...SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES
LOOKS LOW. THE MAIN THREAT IS LIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED
FLOODING LOOKS LIKE A REAL POSSIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD DUE IN
PART TO PWATS PUSHING 2 INCHES. THIS IS OBVIOUSLY SOMETHING WE/LL
KEEP A REAL CLOSE EYE ON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
THE SHOWER/TSTM POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE DWINDLING AS
THERE REALLY IS NOT MUCH CONVECTION CURRENTLY UPSTREAM. ALSO THE
LATEST HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE SHOWS JUST A NARROW BAND
OF A FEW SHOWERS MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH 06Z. HAVE REMOVED THE
VCTS/CB FROM THE TAFS AND WENT WITH ONLY VCSH TONIGHT. CIGS WILL
BE PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH BASES AROUND 5K FT.
ONCE SKIES SCATTER OUT LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS DIE OFF... SOME
LIGHT/MVFR FOG MAY DEVELOP... ROUGHLY 09Z-13Z. OTHERWISE MONDAY
WILL BE VFR WITH SFC WINDS UNDER 10 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
BASED ON BUOY/WEBCAM OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST LOCAL RUN OF THE GLERL
WAVE MODEL...HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
RIVERS ARE RUNNING WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS AND NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVER TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEK. UNDER HALF AN INCH IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER THREE TO SEVEN TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE DRY GROUND COULD ABSORB MUCH OF THE
RUNOFF... THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLOW RIVER LEVEL RISES BY MID WEEK.
HOWEVER... ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOST OF THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY CAUSE MINOR
AREAL FLOODING AND LEAD TO HIGHER RIVER LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...63
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
723 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
COMPONENT TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
THE QUESTION FOR TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND COVERAGE. THE EVENT AS A WHOLE WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
LACK OF DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT AS WELL AS LIMITED INSTABILITY
AND DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL EVENTUALLY MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LEVELS TO SOME EXTENT AND THAT
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES AROUND
06Z FOR MBS AND BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z FOR THE DETROIT AREA TAFS.
FOR DTW...BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
TONIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET BETWEEN 09Z
AND 16Z MONDAY.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 407 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
A LINE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN ALONG A CONVERGENT STREAMLINE. THIS
CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH A ZONE OF ENHANCED
ABSOLUTE VORTICITY IN THE LATEST RUC OUTPUT. THE CONVERGENCE
STREAMER AND RIBBON OF FORCING IS TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
MIDLEVEL JET STRUCTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE SYNOPTIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE ENHANCED LINE OF CONVERGENCE OR MIDLEVEL
INFLECTION AXIS TO CAST OFF...SHEDDING DUE EASTWARD TONIGHT AS THE
LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO. THE TONIGHT PERIOD THEN
DISTILLS DOWN TO WHAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AXIS TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA. WHAT IS
COMPLICATING THIS SETUP IS THE VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE 6-12 KFT LAYER. COMBINE
THIS STABLE LAYER WITH A VERY DRY NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF 30 DEGREES...AND THE SUSPICION
IS MUCH OF THE LIFT WILL GO INTO SATURATING THE COLUMN. THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE SHOWING A REAL STRUGGLE WITH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. PROBABLY THE BEST THING GOING FOR THE SETUP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RIBBON OF MOISTURE
TO ALIGN WITH THE MEAN FLOW LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS BY NO MEANS AN
ENDORSEMENT...MORE OF A COMMENT ON THE LOW CONFIDENCE/HIGH
UNCERTAINTY. FOR THOSE REASONS...WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM THE
INHERITED POP GRIDS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DECIDE ON THIS BEING A
SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS SHOWER TYPE EVENT. TIME OF YEAR AND CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY REQUIRES A THUNDER MENTION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO SIGNAL
FOR A HIGH AMOUNT OF EXPECTED LIGHTNING. HRRR ALONG WITH 12Z WRF-NMM
MOVED TIMING UP A HAIR...LOOKING AT TIME WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION
MAINLY BETWEEN 3-9Z.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
DEFINED MOISTURE PLUME ATTENDANT TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
EASE SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY MORNING AS SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS STREAM
BY TO THE NORTH. OVERALL TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THESE FEATURES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE WILL REMAIN A WINDOW EARLY IN THE DAY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST OF A
HOWELL TO SANDUSKY LINE. MORE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN
BY AFTERNOON WITHIN A BACKGROUND OF WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL
GREATLY LIMIT THE PROSPECTS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. A WELL MIXED AND DRYING 800-925 MB LAYER
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RESPOND
ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS OF LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AREAWIDE.
RENEWED STRENGTHENING OF THE DOWNSTREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SEND
THE EXISTING HIGHER THETA-E AIR MASS BACK NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
SE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL
SLOPE WILL SUPPORT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION. THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. IN ADDITION...POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL MAINTENANCE AND
DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WILL REQUIRE ATTENTION...12Z MODEL SUITE PROVIDING A MIXED
SIGNAL ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO ENTER A PORTION OF THE
AREA.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF ANY MCS/MCV REMNANTS PLAY A DEFINITIVE
ROLE IN DEFINING THE PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION ON INTO TUESDAY. A
MORE SIZABLE CLOUD/RAIN LADEN COMPLEX ARRIVING EARLY IN THE DAY
COULD DAMPEN/DELAY THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. CONVERSELY...A
LATE DAY ARRIVAL COULD BE OPPORTUNE FOR ANCHORING A MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE EPISODE. THE COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOME
INCREASE IN THE UPPER HEIGHT FIELD WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS OF UPPER
80S...ABSENT OF A DISRUPTION OF THE HEATING CYCLE BY EARLY DAY
ACTIVITY.
EXTENDED FORECAST WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
MONDAY/TUESDAY CONVECTION. MODELS STILL ADVERTISING A BOUNDARY
SETTING UP OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS. WITH THAT...THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUAL
CHANCE FOR RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
MARINE...
A GUSTY SOUTHEAST WIND THROUGH THE EVENING PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH. GUSTS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS GIVEN THE
HIGHER DEGREE OF STABILITY OVER THE LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL
BRING WITH IT A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO MID WEEK.
THIS FRONT MAY TRIGGER SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MID WEEK PERIOD. SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....RBP
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR/SS
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
657 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
NULL WEATHER FOR TONIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL HAVE THE ONLY INFLUENCE ON
AVIATION OPERATIONS ON SUNDAY. EXPECTING GUSTS TO 20KT TO EMERGE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AT SAGINAW AND FLINT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
DELAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY INCREASES FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE ON THE
NEXT COLD FRONT.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* NONE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE FAVORABLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN AND THE STABLE LAKE AGGREGATE OF
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING. LATEST KDTX .5Z IMAGERY
SUPPORTS A LAKE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER SECTIONS OF
MACOMB AND WAYNE COUNTIES IMMEDIATE TO THE LAKE ST CLAIR SHORELINE.
IN ADDITION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLIER DEPICTED A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR EASTERN THUMB. SURFACE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO VEER LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
DRIFTS OVERHEAD A MOVE AWAY FROM THE WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW NOW IN
PLACE. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN FALL OFF FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL FOLLOW...SHIFTING EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH CLOUD TO EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. RECENT RUC DATA SUPPORTS SOME HIGH CLOUD DRIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN YET THIS EVENING. TRANSPARENCY FOR CLOUDS
THIS FAR SOUTH WILL BE HIGH WHICH WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON LOWS
OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS MODERATION SHOULD LEAD TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREE WARMER. CURRENT DEWPOINTS RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID
40S SETS A GOOD BASELINE FOR AREAS NORTH OF M 59. IN THE URBAN
AREAS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD LOWER INTO THE LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING OUT OF
THE PLAINS. THE EFFECTIVE DEEPENING OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ESTABLISH A SOLID WARM AIR ADVECTIVE COMPONENT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE 850-925 MB LAYER WILL WARM ROUGHLY 5-6 DEGREES RELATIVE TO
TODAY...LEAVING 850 MB READINGS IN THE 15C RANGE. GIVEN AT LEAST A
MODESTLY MIXED PROFILE WITH FULL INSOLATION INTO THIS LAYER...THIS
SUPPORTS AN INCREMENTAL INCREASE IN HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S.
SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE NEAR SURFACE WIND FIELD WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A TOUCH COOLER ALONG THE LAKESHORE LOCALES
/MID-UPPER 70S/.
MAIN HEIGHT FALL CENTER WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AT IT
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL FILL
EASTWARD...ALLOWING AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO EASE ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BOUNDARY APPEARS DEFINED MORE BY
THE TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT...A PERIOD OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
COMMENCING LOCALLY 06Z-12Z MONDAY MORNING. A STEADY INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY THROUGH THIS PROCESS WILL INTRODUCE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONTAL SLOPE WORKS THROUGH. A
GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT WOULD SEEMINGLY RELY ON A
GREATER UPTICK IN FORCING PROVIDED VIA THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE
OR REMNANT MCV WITH SOME ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT.
THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH/EAST BY
EARLY MONDAY AS THE AREA BRIEFLY ENTERS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THERMAL
PROFILE REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THAT NOTED ON SUNDAY...SLIGHT
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW YIELDING A GREATER MIXING
POTENTIAL. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGHS MAKING A RUN INTO THE MIDDLE
80S...PARTICULARLY IF THE ONGOING DRY AIR ADVECTION SCOURS OUT ANY
RESIDUAL CLOUD EARLY ENOUGH DURING THE DAY.
OVERALL SETUP FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND BRING
CONTINUAL CHANCES FOR BOTH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR THE WEEK. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR THE START OF
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL ASSIST IN BRINGING RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. WITH WAA OCCURRING ON
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND CANNOT RULE OUT
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. SECOND IN THE SERIES OF WAVES IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. FROM THERE THE LONG RANGE
PATTERN BECOMES MUDDLED...AS OF NOW THERE LOOKS TO BE A BOUNDARY
THAT MAY SETUP ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
BE ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO BRING TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA...FROM THERE TEMPS SLOWLY GO BACK INTO THE
UPPER 70S. THE SETUP AS A WHOLE LOOKS TO START TO BREAK DOWN AT THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND THROUGH TONIGHT WINDS WILL EMERGE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TURNING DRIER ON MONDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY BECOME MORE
ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MANN
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR/SS
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
351 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE FAVORABLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN AND THE STABLE LAKE AGGREGATE OF
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING. LATEST KDTX .5Z IMAGERY
SUPPORTS A LAKE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER SECTIONS OF
MACOMB AND WAYNE COUNTIES IMMEDIATE TO THE LAKE ST CLAIR SHORELINE.
IN ADDITION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLIER DEPICTED A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR EASTERN THUMB. SURFACE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO VEER LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
DRIFTS OVERHEAD A MOVE AWAY FROM THE WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW NOW IN
PLACE. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN FALL OFF FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL FOLLOW...SHIFTING EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH CLOUD TO EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. RECENT RUC DATA SUPPORTS SOME HIGH CLOUD DRIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN YET THIS EVENING. TRANSPARENCY FOR CLOUDS
THIS FAR SOUTH WILL BE HIGH WHICH WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON LOWS
OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS MODERATION SHOULD LEAD TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREE WARMER. CURRENT DEWPOINTS RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID
40S SETS A GOOD BASELINE FOR AREAS NORTH OF M 59. IN THE URBAN
AREAS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD LOWER INTO THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING OUT OF
THE PLAINS. THE EFFECTIVE DEEPENING OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ESTABLISH A SOLID WARM AIR ADVECTIVE COMPONENT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE 850-925 MB LAYER WILL WARM ROUGHLY 5-6 DEGREES RELATIVE TO
TODAY...LEAVING 850 MB READINGS IN THE 15C RANGE. GIVEN AT LEAST A
MODESTLY MIXED PROFILE WITH FULL INSOLATION INTO THIS LAYER...THIS
SUPPORTS AN INCREMENTAL INCREASE IN HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S.
SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE NEAR SURFACE WIND FIELD WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A TOUCH COOLER ALONG THE LAKESHORE LOCALES
/MID-UPPER 70S/.
MAIN HEIGHT FALL CENTER WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AT IT
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL FILL
EASTWARD...ALLOWING AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO EASE ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BOUNDARY APPEARS DEFINED MORE BY
THE TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT...A PERIOD OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
COMMENCING LOCALLY 06Z-12Z MONDAY MORNING. A STEADY INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY THROUGH THIS PROCESS WILL INTRODUCE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONTAL SLOPE WORKS THROUGH. A
GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT WOULD SEEMINGLY RELY ON A
GREATER UPTICK IN FORCING PROVIDED VIA THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE
OR REMNANT MCV WITH SOME ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT.
THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH/EAST BY
EARLY MONDAY AS THE AREA BRIEFLY ENTERS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THERMAL
PROFILE REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THAT NOTED ON SUNDAY...SLIGHT
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW YIELDING A GREATER MIXING
POTENTIAL. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGHS MAKING A RUN INTO THE MIDDLE
80S...PARTICULARLY IF THE ONGOING DRY AIR ADVECTION SCOURS OUT ANY
RESIDUAL CLOUD EARLY ENOUGH DURING THE DAY.
OVERALL SETUP FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND BRING
CONTINUAL CHANCES FOR BOTH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR THE WEEK. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR THE START OF
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL ASSIST IN BRINGING RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. WITH WAA OCCURRING ON
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND CANNOT RULE OUT
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. SECOND IN THE SERIES OF WAVES IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. FROM THERE THE LONG RANGE
PATTERN BECOMES MUDDLED...AS OF NOW THERE LOOKS TO BE A BOUNDARY
THAT MAY SETUP ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
BE ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO BRING TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA...FROM THERE TEMPS SLOWLY GO BACK INTO THE
UPPER 70S. THE SETUP AS A WHOLE LOOKS TO START TO BREAK DOWN AT THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND THROUGH TONIGHT WINDS WILL EMERGE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TURNING DRIER ON MONDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY BECOME MORE
ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 137 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
//DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON SETTLING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND SOUTHWESTERN
ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE GRADIENT FLOW AT THE
SURFACE TO VEER TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS
LOW...BUT SHOULD OCCUR PRIOR TO SUNDOWN EITHER IN A FOCUSED LAKE
BREEZE PUSH OR A MORE GRADUAL TRANSITION TO ONSHORE FLOW. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST OF MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW CIRRUS DEBRIS CLOUD FROM UPSTREAM TO
OVERSPREAD THE STATE. OTHERWISE...A QUIET AND FAVORABLE TIME
PERIOD FOR AVIATION WEATHER.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* NONE.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR/SS
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
701 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
ONE THING IS FOR SURE...THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A VERY
COLORFUL ONE ON THE MPX RADAR. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT THIS PERIOD...THOUGH
THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER THROWN INTO THE MIX
AS WELL...THOUGH AT THE MOMENT...WE FEEL THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
IS THE GREATER OF THE TWO THREATS IN THE MPX CWA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING UP THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS A CLOSED LOW AT H5 NEAR
THE MT/ALB/SASK BORDER...WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES NOTED FROM NV/ID
INTO THE DAKOTAS IN THE SW FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGE. OF ALL OF THESE
WAVES...THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL /AS MEASURED BY POTENTIAL VORT/ IS THE
ONE BACK OVER NV/ID AND IT IS THE ONE THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS NEB THIS EVENING AS IT
REACHES THE CO PLAINS BY 00Z AND EVENTUALLY ENDS UP NEAR LA CROSSE
BY 12Z SUN.
AT THE SFC...THIS WRN UPPER TROUGH HAS A FAIRLY BROAD LEE SIDE
TROUGH IN PLACE THIS MORNING FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH WRN
NEB...THOUGH WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE THE CONSOLIDATION OF THIS
TROUGH INTO A SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW OVER ERN CO. AT THE MOMENT THERE
IS REALLY NO WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT...JUST A PLUME OF MID 50 AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS DOWN INTO
CENTRAL TX. AS THIS PERIOD UNFOLDS...THIS SFC TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHILE THE COLORADO SFC LOW SLOWLY
DEEPENS ACROSS ERN CO...BEFORE BEING EJECTED NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
THE MAIN UPPER WAVE...EVENTUALLY REACHING CENTRAL MN BY 12Z SUN.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD...WE HAVE SEEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STRUGGLE TO WORK EAST ACROSS MN...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN CONVECTION
DIMINISHING AS IT REACHES MN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES AND THE SFC TROUGH WORKS INTO THE DAKOTAS...WE WILL SEE
THAT AXIS OF INSTABILITY BEND INTO MN. ACCOMPANYING THIS INSTABILITY
WILL BE AN H85 LLJ ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS THAT WILL BE SETTING UP
CAMP OVER THE MPX AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING/NIGHT
ACROSS THE MPX CWA...WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
THE HI-RES CAMS CERTAINLY PAINT THIS PICTURE OCCURRING...WITH SOME
PRETTY HEFTY QPFS RESULTING. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL SET UP...BUT MOST RECENT CAM
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND HOPWRF ARE PAINTING QUITE A BIT
OF ACTIVITY TO AREAS SOUTH OF A TWIN CITIES TO MONTEVIDEO LINE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHICH WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
DRIVING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN TRACKING ALONG I-90 IN SODAK
OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT...AS THE NV/ID WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KTS
/THATS NOT A TYPO!/...WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING A FAIRLY HEALTHY
MCS TRACKING ALONG ROUGHLY AN OMAHA TO LA CROSSE/EAU CLAIRE LINE
OVERNIGHT.
FOR FLASH FLOODING...DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A WATCH NOW...AS
CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO ISSUE ONE AT THE MOMENT. A GOOD EXAMPLE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMES
WITH THE 3Z HOPWRF. MEMBERS 1 AND 4 SHOWED 2-3" OF RUN TOTAL QPF
AROUND MCLEOD COUNTY...WHILE MEMBERS 2 AND 3 HAVE LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH THE SAME AREA. THE SPREAD SEEN IN THE HI-RES MODELS HAS
KEPT US FROM ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT. AS OF
WRITING THIS THOUGH...THE GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING LOOKS TO
BE FROM SW/SC MN UP INTO EC MN/WRN WI WHERE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TO THE NORTH END OF THE EXPECTED OMAHA TO EAU
CLAIRE MCS.
ON THE SEVERE END OF THINGS...SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER UP INTO SW MN...THOUGH AM NOT OVERLY EXCITED IN THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL AT THE MOMENT. THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR LOOKS TO BE
THAT THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH FORCING UP THIS DIRECTION DURING THE
SHORT TERM...WHICH WILL KEEP INSTABILITY FROM BUILDING UP TOO MUCH
BEFORE IT IS QUICKLY RELEASED IN ONE OF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL BE IN THE SW MN...WHICH WILL HAVE AN
OCCLUDED/WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY BY 00Z...SO THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL TO HAVE STORMS GET A BIT UNRULY...THOUGH WOULD BE MUCH
MORE CONCERNED WITH SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER INTO MN IF
THINGS WERE COMING IN ABOUT 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN THEY ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON DEEPENING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS MN. A COLD FRONT
TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH EASTERN AREAS OF MN IN
THE MORNING AND ACROSS WESTERN WI EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON THE OUTCOME OF THE CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND HOW
MUCH HEATING CAN OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT... THERE REMAINS A
THREAT FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WI EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THE
STORMS DO DEVELOP...THERE IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS STRONG
SHEAR REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG WITH A GROWING AXIS OF CAPE FORECAST.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE FA SHOULD BE DRY ALONG WITH RATHER BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY REMAIN THE ONLY QUIET/DRY PERIODS IN THE
LONGER TERM AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE FA. THE
BALANCE OF THE LONGER TERM SURE LOOKS WET AND STORMY AS A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND THEN BEGINS MOVING SLOWLY EAST...REACHING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE H5 HEIGHTS ARE TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
THERE ARE TWO PROBLEMS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. ONE WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION DAY AFTER DAY AS
PIECES OF ENERGY EMANATE FROM THE UPPER LOW AND SPILL INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL COME BACK OUR WAY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT AND THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WI
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEXT WEEK
FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE ACROSS OUR
AREA WITH POCKETS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES. THERE IS SPREAD ON THE
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE GFS OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MN WITH THE ECMWF OVER SOUTHERN MN AND IA. WHAT IS
IMPORTANT IS THE SIGNAL FROM THE MODELS ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT WITH A SURFACE FRONT SITTING ON US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
IF THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN MATERIALIZES NEXT WEEK...ON TOP OF THE RAIN
WE ARE EXPECTING TODAY AND SUNDAY...WILL RESULT IN MAIN STEM RIVERS
RISING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH FLOODING BECOMING A WIDESPREAD ISSUE.
THE SECOND CONCERN NEXT WEEK WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER. AT THIS
POINT...LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK BAD AS THE FRONT BEGINS
LIFTING BACK NORTH INTO MN/WI AS A WARM FRONT. SPC ALREADY HAS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3 COVERING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MN AND THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A VERY ACTIVE WEEK...IN MORE WAYS THEN ONE...IS
COMING OUR WAY. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS IMPACTING THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERABLY
LOWER FOR TIMING OF WHEN SAID ROUNDS WILL HIT. CURRENTLY EXPECTING
AT LEAST 3 R0UNDS OF STORMS...WHAT YOU SEE THIS MORNING THAT WILL
BE SLOWLY WORKING INTO ERN MN FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ROUND 2 SHOULD GET GOING ALONG A FRONT IN THE ERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WORK ACROSS THE MPX TERMINALS THIS
EVENING...WITH A FINAL ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED TO COME OUT OF
THE OMAHA AREA AND HEAD FOR WRN WI LATE TONIGHT. FOR TIMING THIS
ACTIVITY...USED A BLEND OF THE MPXWRF AND HRRR...THOUGH WENT A
COUPLE OF HOURS FASTER THAN WHAT EITHER ONE OF THOSE MODELS HAS
BEEN SHOWING AS THEY HAVE BEEN SLOW IN BRINGING ACTIVITY IN
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR UNTIL TONIGHT...WHEN
IFR/MVFR CONDS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE HIGH IN THE WIND FORECAST UNTIL TONIGHT
WHEN MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON HOW WINDS WILL SHIFT AS A SFC LOW
MOVES INTO MN.
KMSP...LOOKING FOR 3 ROUNDS OF STORMS AT MSP. DRY AIR AND UPPER
RIDGING TO THE EAST HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESS OF RAIN TO THE WEST
THIS MORNING...THOUGH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REACH THE FIELD BETWEEN
16Z AND 18Z. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION
AFTER 22Z BEFORE ANOTHER ROBUST AREA OF TSRA MOVES IN AFTER
00Z...THOUGH THERE MAY BE VERY LITTLE IF ANY BREAK BETWEEN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY AND THE EVENING ACTIVITY. THERE MAY BE
ONE FINAL ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA WITH THE FROPA SUN MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER WITH HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE THAT
FAR OUT. NOT EXPECTING ANY SUSTAINED MVFR OR LOWER CIGS UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. KEPT CIG FORECAST
CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IFR CONDS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE TO START SUNDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...BECOMING VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G20KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR TSRA MON NITE. WINDS S 10 TO 15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
428 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
ONE THING IS FOR SURE...THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A VERY
COLORFUL ONE ON THE MPX RADAR. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT THIS PERIOD...THOUGH
THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER THROWN INTO THE MIX
AS WELL...THOUGH AT THE MOMENT...WE FEEL THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
IS THE GREATER OF THE TWO THREATS IN THE MPX CWA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING UP THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS A CLOSED LOW AT H5 NEAR
THE MT/ALB/SASK BORDER...WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES NOTED FROM NV/ID
INTO THE DAKOTAS IN THE SW FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGE. OF ALL OF THESE
WAVES...THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL /AS MEASURED BY POTENTIAL VORT/ IS THE
ONE BACK OVER NV/ID AND IT IS THE ONE THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS NEB THIS EVENING AS IT
REACHES THE CO PLAINS BY 00Z AND EVENTUALLY ENDS UP NEAR LA CROSSE
BY 12Z SUN.
AT THE SFC...THIS WRN UPPER TROUGH HAS A FAIRLY BROAD LEE SIDE
TROUGH IN PLACE THIS MORNING FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH WRN
NEB...THOUGH WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE THE CONSOLIDATION OF THIS
TROUGH INTO A SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW OVER ERN CO. AT THE MOMENT THERE
IS REALLY NO WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT...JUST A PLUME OF MID 50 AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS DOWN INTO
CENTRAL TX. AS THIS PERIOD UNFOLDS...THIS SFC TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHILE THE COLORADO SFC LOW SLOWLY
DEEPENS ACROSS ERN CO...BEFORE BEING EJECTED NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
THE MAIN UPPER WAVE...EVENTUALLY REACHING CENTRAL MN BY 12Z SUN.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD...WE HAVE SEEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STRUGGLE TO WORK EAST ACROSS MN...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN CONVECTION
DIMINISHING AS IT REACHES MN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES AND THE SFC TROUGH WORKS INTO THE DAKOTAS...WE WILL SEE
THAT AXIS OF INSTABILITY BEND INTO MN. ACCOMPANYING THIS INSTABILITY
WILL BE AN H85 LLJ ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS THAT WILL BE SETTING UP
CAMP OVER THE MPX AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING/NIGHT
ACROSS THE MPX CWA...WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
THE HI-RES CAMS CERTAINLY PAINT THIS PICTURE OCCURRING...WITH SOME
PRETTY HEFTY QPFS RESULTING. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL SET UP...BUT MOST RECENT CAM
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND HOPWRF ARE PAINTING QUITE A BIT
OF ACTIVITY TO AREAS SOUTH OF A TWIN CITIES TO MONTEVIDEO LINE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHICH WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
DRIVING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN TRACKING ALONG I-90 IN SODAK
OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT...AS THE NV/ID WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KTS
/THATS NOT A TYPO!/...WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING A FAIRLY HEALTHY
MCS TRACKING ALONG ROUGHLY AN OMAHA TO LA CROSSE/EAU CLAIRE LINE
OVERNIGHT.
FOR FLASH FLOODING...DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A WATCH NOW...AS
CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO ISSUE ONE AT THE MOMENT. A GOOD EXAMPLE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMES
WITH THE 3Z HOPWRF. MEMBERS 1 AND 4 SHOWED 2-3" OF RUN TOTAL QPF
AROUND MCLEOD COUNTY...WHILE MEMBERS 2 AND 3 HAVE LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH THE SAME AREA. THE SPREAD SEEN IN THE HI-RES MODELS HAS
KEPT US FROM ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT. AS OF
WRITING THIS THOUGH...THE GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING LOOKS TO
BE FROM SW/SC MN UP INTO EC MN/WRN WI WHERE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TO THE NORTH END OF THE EXPECTED OMAHA TO EAU
CLAIRE MCS.
ON THE SEVERE END OF THINGS...SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER UP INTO SW MN...THOUGH AM NOT OVERLY EXCITED IN THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL AT THE MOMENT. THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR LOOKS TO BE
THAT THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH FORCING UP THIS DIRECTION DURING THE
SHORT TERM...WHICH WILL KEEP INSTABILITY FROM BUILDING UP TOO MUCH
BEFORE IT IS QUICKLY RELEASED IN ONE OF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL BE IN THE SW MN...WHICH WILL HAVE AN
OCCLUDED/WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY BY 00Z...SO THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL TO HAVE STORMS GET A BIT UNRULY...THOUGH WOULD BE MUCH
MORE CONCERNED WITH SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER INTO MN IF
THINGS WERE COMING IN ABOUT 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN THEY ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON DEEPENING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS MN. A COLD FRONT
TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH EASTERN AREAS OF MN IN
THE MORNING AND ACROSS WESTERN WI EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON THE OUTCOME OF THE CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND HOW
MUCH HEATING CAN OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT... THERE REMAINS A
THREAT FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WI EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THE
STORMS DO DEVELOP...THERE IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS STRONG
SHEAR REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG WITH A GROWING AXIS OF CAPE FORECAST.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE FA SHOULD BE DRY ALONG WITH RATHER BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY REMAIN THE ONLY QUIET/DRY PERIODS IN THE
LONGER TERM AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE FA. THE
BALANCE OF THE LONGER TERM SURE LOOKS WET AND STORMY AS A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND THEN BEGINS MOVING SLOWLY EAST...REACHING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE H5 HEIGHTS ARE TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
THERE ARE TWO PROBLEMS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. ONE WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION DAY AFTER DAY AS
PIECES OF ENERGY EMANATE FROM THE UPPER LOW AND SPILL INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL COME BACK OUR WAY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT AND THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WI
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEXT WEEK
FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE ACROSS OUR
AREA WITH POCKETS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES. THERE IS SPREAD ON THE
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE GFS OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MN WITH THE ECMWF OVER SOUTHERN MN AND IA. WHAT IS
IMPORTANT IS THE SIGNAL FROM THE MODELS ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT WITH A SURFACE FRONT SITTING ON US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
IF THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN MATERIALIZES NEXT WEEK...ON TOP OF THE RAIN
WE ARE EXPECTING TODAY AND SUNDAY...WILL RESULT IN MAIN STEM RIVERS
RISING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH FLOODING BECOMING A WIDESPREAD ISSUE.
THE SECOND CONCERN NEXT WEEK WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER. AT THIS
POINT...LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK BAD AS THE FRONT BEGINS
LIFTING BACK NORTH INTO MN/WI AS A WARM FRONT. SPC ALREADY HAS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3 COVERING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MN AND THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A VERY ACTIVE WEEK...IN MORE WAYS THEN ONE...IS
COMING OUR WAY. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
THERE WILL BE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES. STORMS CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS
SD...AND THIS COMPLEX WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE ON THE
DOORSTEP OF KAXN/KRWF BEFORE SUNRISE /PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 08-09Z/.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST...BUT MOST
TAF SITES IN MN WILL HAVE A SHOT AT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES
OF THUNDER BETWEEN 10-15Z IN THE WEST AND 14-20Z IN THE EAST. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER /MORE INTENSE/ COMPLEX OF STORMS THIS
EVENING/NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THIS SECOND ROUND IS MORE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME.
KMSP...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING BUT THE EASTWARD
ADVANCING SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE AIRPORT
BEFORE THE NOON HOUR...WITH A PRONOUNCED DECREASE IN INTENSITY
BEFORE GETTING IN THE VICINITY OF KMSP. IN FACT...THE AMOUNT OF
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OR STORM COVERAGE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN IN
EASTERN MN AS COMPARED TO WESTERN MN FOR THE EARLY CONVECTION.
THAT BEING SAID THIS IS A PATTERN WHERE SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS
COULD HANG AROUND MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NITE...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA/IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS S AT 13G25KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR/TSRA LIKELY EARLY...THEN BECOMING VFR. WINDS WSW AT
10G20KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR TSRA MON NITE. WINDS SSE 5 TO 10KTS.
TUE...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS S AT 5KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
356 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT |354 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
ELONGATED SFC HIGH STRETCHES FROM NWRN ONTARIO TO LAKE SUPERIOR TO
LAKE MICH THIS MORNING. SFC CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES OVER NE COLO
EARLY THIS MORNING ON FORWARD FLANK OF UPPER TROF OVER ROCKIES. A
WELL DEVELOPED LLJ STRETCHES ROM THE TX PANHANDLE TO THE NRN PLAINS.
WITHIN THIS ARE OF HIGH MSTR TRANSPORT AND DECREASING INSTABILITY
CLUSTER OF STORMS HAVE ERUPTED OVER PAST 4 -6 HRS. NRN CLUSTER IS
DECREASING IN INTENSITY AS IT OUTRUNS MAIN AXIS OF LLJ. SRN CLUSTER
OVER ERN SODAK IS CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS IT IS IN
A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION TO ACCESS LLJ/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT NRN EDGE
OF MID LVL CAP. A FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS HAVE SCOOTED ACROSS THE WRN
CWA OTHERWISE A CLOUD FILLED MORNING CONTINUES. TEMPS RANGE FROM LOW
40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO MID 60S OVER BRD LAKES REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
TODAY...AS HEIGHTS COLLAPSE WITHIN MID LVL RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. ELONGATED SFC
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM KS NORTH INTO ERN DAKOTAS. MAX MSTR
TRANSPORT AT 85H WILL ELONGATE INTO WRN CWA TODAY. LATEST SPC SREF
CPTP SUGGESTS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
STORMS PRIMARILY OVER WRN CWA THROUGH 18Z AND THEN SPREAD FARTHER
EAST INTO REMAINDER OF CWA LATER TODAY. HOWEVER NAM/EC FCST OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR/MUCAPE SUGGEST OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTION OF ANY GREAT
EXTENT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT. HIGHEST QPF POTENTIAL NEAR
BRD/CASS LAKES TODAY CLOSER TO BEST MSTR TRANSPORT/SYNOPTIC SCALE
OMEGA.
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY FCST REGARDING HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT MAGNITUDE APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING TOWARDS WISC ZONES BY
12Z. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WOULD GUARANTEE
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE CWA..THE POTENTIAL FOR A CORRIDOR
OF HEAVY PRECIP MAY THWART SOME HIGHER QPF AT LOCATIONS FARTHER
NORTH. SEVERAL MDLS FCST SIGNIFICANT THICKNESS COOLING WITHIN THE
ZONE OF STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE TWIN PORTS SOUTH TO PINE
COUNTY FROM 06Z-12Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA OVERNIGHT FOR
UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS. STRONG/SVR STORM THREAT
SEEMS QUITE LIMITED. HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS SUCH AS PWATS/WARM CLOUD
DEPTH/LLJ MAGNITUDE RISE STEADILY ACROSS THE SOUTH/SERN CWA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WITH APPROACH OF SFC LOW IT LOOKS LIKE MARINE
LAYER WILL DO ITS PART AND PROMOTE A NORTHEAST WIND AND A SATURATED
LAYER AT THE SFC SO FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. THIS WAS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS FCST/GRIDS AND WILL CONTINUE.
TOMORROW...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SFC LOW/MID LVL TROF WILL SWING
NORTHEAST INTO WRN ONTARIO BY LATE IN THE DAY. EARLY MORNING
RAIN/STORMS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD. SOME CONCERN FOR FLOODING ISSUES
AGAIN ACROSS BORDERLAND AS STRONG FORCING WITH EJECTING LOW MAY
GENERATE A BRIEF WINDOW OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THIS MAY AGGRAVATE
EXISTING HIGH STREAMS/RIVERS.
.HYDRO...ESF CURRENTLY ISSUED AND WILL UPDATE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
GENERAL IDEA THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
NOT CONFIDENT TO ISSUE A WATCH YET AS COMPLICATION IN ACTUAL QPF MAY
ARISE DUE TO A CONTINUATION OF MODEL DIFFERENCES AND POTENTIAL FOR
MOST MSTR TRANSPORT TO FEED INTO MCS DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF CWA.
PARTICULARLY TROUBLING IS PARALLEL NAM SEQUENCE OF SIM REFLECTIVITY
TODAY. IT KEEPS A VOID OF PRECIP OVER ERN CWA TODAY AS CLUSTERS OF
STORMS REFORM OVER SRN PART OF STATE. PARALLEL AND OPS VERSION OF
4KM NAM AGREE ON SIGNIFICANT PRECIP THREAT OVER WRN EDGE OF CWA
TODAY...SHIFTING TO WISC ZONES TONIGHT....AND THEN ACROSS BORDERLAND
TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
IT WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH OR NEAR THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE
RAIN THIS WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP IN THE
BORDERLAND SUNDAY EVENING BUT THAT SHOULD END BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY
GIVING THE REGION A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM THE RAIN. A SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2
IN MN AND WI.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S. ANOTHER SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH MN AND WI ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE WILL BE A SHORT BREAK FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR/IFR ON SATURDAY. WAA
HAS LED TO SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA THAT WILL
IMPACT MOST TAFS TONIGHT. WE INCLUDED A TEMPO OR VCSH AT ALL TAF
SITES EXCEPT KHYR TONIGHT.
A LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS LATE
THIS EVENING...AND THEY ARE FORECAST BY THE HRRR TO IMPACT KBRD BY
11-12Z...THEN CONTINUE EAST/NORTHEAST. THE STABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER OVER THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH SOME AS THE
COMPLEX PROGRESSES INTO OUR AREA. TIMING THE SHOWERS/STORMS IS STILL
A CHALLENGE AT THIS POINT...AND WE FOLLOWED SOME OF THE SHORT TERM
MODELS FOR TIMING. IT NOW APPEARS THE LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE
DELAYED SOME...AND WE MADE ADJUSTMENTS.
AREAS OF FOG SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 58 51 68 52 / 90 90 90 20
INL 61 51 62 51 / 70 70 80 60
BRD 68 60 74 53 / 90 80 70 10
HYR 72 57 73 54 / 60 90 90 10
ASX 68 52 73 52 / 60 80 90 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ143>147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR LSZ140>142.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1242 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
WE UPDATED THIS EVENING TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA SOONER. OBSERVATIONS SHOWED SOME OF THOSE ECHOES OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE HITTING THE GROUND...AND WE EXPECT TO
SEE THAT AS WELL OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE 70S PREVAILED TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
PASSED OVER THE REGION. SFC ANALYSIS AT 300 PM SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS
SITUATED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN...ALONG A LINE FROM KINL TO KDLH.
AS THE RIDGE PUSHES EAST INTO WISCONSIN/MN ARROWHEAD THIS
EVENING...THEN EXITS OVER MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL
TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. RAIN AND
TSTM CHANCES ARRIVE IN THE WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS
EVENING...SPREADING EAST THROUGH SAT MORNING AS THE FORECAST AREA
BECOMES SITUATED IN A WARM RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD H85 LOW
ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
30-35 KT LLJ PUSHES ACROSS MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASES
TO 40-50 KT OUT OF THE GULF AS IT CENTERS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION SAT/SAT NIGHT. THE GFS/NAM/ECM ARE ALL SHOWING PWATS
SOAR BACK INTO THE 1.5" NEIGHBORHOOD /WHICH IS 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ FOR THE DLH CWA BY
SAT AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
AND POTENTIAL LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS IN ALREADY SATURDAY
AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ROTATING NWD THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE INITIATED BY A S/W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER
OVER SRN MANITOBA...ROTATING NEWD FROM SE SD INTO WRN ONTARIO.
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100KT JET MAX.
THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE EMBEDDED WAVE FROM
ERN NEB/WRN IA INTO NE MN. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THIS SYSTEM AND THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. ALTHOUGH STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...MOST OF THE T-STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA AS THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY AND
FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND.
A COOL EAST WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP AREAS AROUND THE TWIN
PORTS AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD IN THE STABLE AIR MASS. SO ANY STORMS
THAT DO LIFT NWD ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED.
A BROAD PUSH OF VERY MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS
MN/WI THIS WEEKEND AND INCREASE THE AMT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. PWATS
WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH AND A QUARTER DURING THIS TIME AND ALLOW FOR
UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM EXITS LATE SUN
NIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED HIGHER AMTS ABOVE 3 INCHES AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY SINCE MUCH OF THE AREA HAS
SATURATED OR NEARLY SATURATED SFC CONDITIONS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A
STRONG SWLY FLOW. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS ON MON NIGHT AND RIDES EWD THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SKIRT THE SRN SECTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SERIES OF WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY STRONG
HUDSON BAY HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL KEEP THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE SOUTH. HAVE KEPT HIGHER CHC POPS
TO THE SOUTH FOR WED AND THUR.
A PERSISTENT E/NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP AREAS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE 50S...THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON MONDAY WHERE A SW
WIND WILL KEEP THE LAKE INDUCED AIR MASS AT BAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE
AREAS OF FOG OFF THE LAKE MAKING CONDITIONS EVEN MORE PLEASANT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVER NIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR/IFR ON SATURDAY. WAA
HAS LED TO SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA THAT WILL
IMPACT MOST TAFS TONIGHT. WE INCLUDED A TEMPO OR VCSH AT ALL TAF
SITES EXCEPT KHYR TONIGHT.
A LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS LATE
THIS EVENING...AND THEY ARE FORECAST BY THE HRRR TO IMPACT KBRD BY
11-12Z...THEN CONTINUE EAST/NORTHEAST. THE STABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER OVER THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH SOME AS THE
COMPLEX PROGRESSES INTO OUR AREA. TIMING THE SHOWERS/STORMS IS STILL
A CHALLENGE AT THIS POINT...AND WE FOLLOWED SOME OF THE SHORT TERM
MODELS FOR TIMING. IT NOW APPEARS THE LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE
DELAYED SOME...AND WE MADE ADJUSTMENTS.
AREAS OF FOG SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 50 65 52 74 / 90 90 20 10
INL 51 63 51 73 / 70 80 60 10
BRD 61 71 54 78 / 80 70 10 30
HYR 56 71 54 79 / 80 90 10 10
ASX 52 71 52 77 / 80 90 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ143>147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR LSZ140>142.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...STEWART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1249 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS IN ANTICIPATION THAT
STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE PREVALENT INITIALLY OVER THE NRN CWA.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THEN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN TAPER OFF AROUND 12Z SUN
MORNING. STILL APPEARS AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SVR
TSTMS/HVY RAINFALL WILL BE FOUND NORTH OF I-80.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
MEAN CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
WITH A LEAD PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
HAD H50 20-30 METER HEIGHT FALLS. H85 MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ONTO THE PLAINS WITH LOWER/MID TEENS FEEDING INTO
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL SD SOUTHWARD INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS COMBO OF WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR AN ISOLATED MOSTLY NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY ALONG/NORTH OF I80...THAT CONTINUES
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY BY 18Z.
OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS TODAY AS WELL.
AHEAD OF IT...INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A
WINDY/WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT WE COULD
MEET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 BY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THUS WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE
AREAS.
MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-
UPPER 60S BY AFTERNOON AS WELL. MID LEVEL H70 TEMPS OF +12 TO +14
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE EAST...WHICH WILL
LIKELY EFFECTIVELY CAP MOST OF THE ARE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST CONVECTION INDEED BREAKS OUT WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS WAY OVERDONE.
BELIEVE BEST SCENARIO FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA WILL BE VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER 21Z ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AND
FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...SIMILAR TO
LATEST RAP MODEL AND 4KM WRF DEPICTIONS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL
JET BEGINS TO RESTRENGTHEN. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WITHIN
AN AREA OF STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS EARLY ON. PW VALUES ALSO INCREASE TO JUST OVER 2
INCHES DURING THIS TIME...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I80. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A
WINDOW FOR A TORNADO THREAT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION
SPECIALLY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING AS 0-1KM SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40KT. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPC HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND HAVE VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEVERE STORMS
WILL DEVELOP...FIRST IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SPREADING EAST/SOUTHEAST TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING. GIVEN NUMEROUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ACROSS THE REGION...
IT`S ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE OF THE WEATHER LATER TODAY.
WHILE THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER LINGERING ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE LAST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE PLEASANT WITH WESTERLY DRYING WINDS
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER DEVELOPING WAVE
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS TO THE AREA BY MONDAY. GIVEN
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES...THE REGION IS UNDER ANOTHER
SLIGHT RISK FROM THE SPC FOR DAY 3.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
HEALTHY CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE AREA...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR SEVERE RISK. THIS WAVE SHOULD PUSH NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA
BY 12Z TUESDAY. IT DOES GET HOT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS HEADING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...AND IT GETS FAIRLY MUGGY WITH
DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S AND MAYBE EVEN LOWER 70S. WILL
CONTINUE DRY TREND INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER
WAVE MOVE INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING STORMS BACK TO
THE FORECAST. USED MODEL BLENDED DATA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MAIN ISSUE IS TIMING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THE EVENING. A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO ERN NEB EARLY LATE THIS AFTN WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR TSRA ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE BNDRY. EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE
TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA THEN OVERNIGHT. THE STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE QUITE CONDUCIVE TO ALLOW SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LEADING UP TO THE FROPA WITH +TSRAGR/VRB50KT POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS BTWN 01Z-04Z THIS EVENING. TSRA ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THEN BY 12Z SUN MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THE
REST OF THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ051>053-
065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ069-079-080-
090-091.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DEE
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
654 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
MEAN CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
WITH A LEAD PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
HAD H50 20-30 METER HEIGHT FALLS. H85 MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ONTO THE PLAINS WITH LOWER/MID TEENS FEEDING INTO
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL SD SOUTHWARD INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS COMBO OF WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR AN ISOLATED MOSTLY NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY ALONG/NORTH OF I80...THAT CONTINUES
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY BY 18Z.
OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS TODAY AS WELL.
AHEAD OF IT...INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A
WINDY/WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT WE COULD
MEET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 BY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THUS WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE
AREAS.
MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-
UPPER 60S BY AFTERNOON AS WELL. MID LEVEL H70 TEMPS OF +12 TO +14
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE EAST...WHICH WILL
LIKELY EFFECTIVELY CAP MOST OF THE ARE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST CONVECTION INDEED BREAKS OUT WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS WAY OVERDONE.
BELIEVE BEST SCENARIO FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA WILL BE VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER 21Z ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AND
FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...SIMILAR TO
LATEST RAP MODEL AND 4KM WRF DEPICTIONS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL
JET BEGINS TO RESTRENGTHEN. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WITHIN
AN AREA OF STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS EARLY ON. PW VALUES ALSO INCREASE TO JUST OVER 2
INCHES DURING THIS TIME...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I80. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A
WINDOW FOR A TORNADO THREAT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION
SPECIALLY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING AS 0-1KM SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40KT. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPC HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND HAVE VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEVERE STORMS
WILL DEVELOP...FIRST IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SPREADING EAST/SOUTHEAST TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING. GIVEN NUMEROUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ACROSS THE REGION...
IT`S ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE OF THE WEATHER LATER TODAY.
WHILE THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER LINGERING ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE LAST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE PLEASANT WITH WESTERLY DRYING WINDS
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER DEVELOPING WAVE
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS TO THE AREA BY MONDAY. GIVEN
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES...THE REGION IS UNDER ANOTHER
SLIGHT RISK FROM THE SPC FOR DAY 3.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
HEALTHY CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE AREA...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR SEVERE RISK. THIS WAVE SHOULD PUSH NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA
BY 12Z TUESDAY. IT DOES GET HOT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS HEADING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...AND IT GETS FAIRLY MUGGY WITH
DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S AND MAYBE EVEN LOWER 70S. WILL
CONTINUE DRY TREND INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER
WAVE MOVE INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING STORMS BACK TO
THE FORECAST. USED MODEL BLENDED DATA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
SOME STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED NORTH OF KOFK AND OTHERS SOUTH
OF KLNK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH
STORMS LIKELY...SOME SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE
TO THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE THIS MORNING...DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE
12Z TAF AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RADAR FOR INCLUSION. BEGIN TO
INCLUDE PROB30/PREVAILING TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH DETERIORATING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END BETWEEN 06Z-10Z. INCLUDED SOME WIND GUSTS WITH THE STORMS
AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR HAIL AND HIGHER WINDS AS THE
SITUATION UNFOLDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY TO 20 TO 28KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35KTS. HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTIONED ESPECIALLY BEFORE
16Z. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THE SURFACE WINDS WILL SETTLE
DOWN OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS AND SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AT
10 TO 15KT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ051>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR IAZ069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
322 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
MEAN CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
WITH A LEAD PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
HAD H50 20-30 METER HEIGHT FALLS. H85 MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ONTO THE PLAINS WITH LOWER/MID TEENS FEEDING INTO
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL SD SOUTHWARD INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS COMBO OF WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR AN ISOLATED MOSTLY NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY ALONG/NORTH OF I80...THAT CONTINUES
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY BY 18Z.
OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS TODAY AS WELL.
AHEAD OF IT...INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A
WINDY/WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT WE COULD
MEET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 BY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THUS WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE
AREAS.
MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-
UPPER 60S BY AFTERNOON AS WELL. MID LEVEL H70 TEMPS OF +12 TO +14
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE EAST...WHICH WILL
LIKELY EFFECTIVELY CAP MOST OF THE ARE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST CONVECTION INDEED BREAKS OUT WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS WAY OVERDONE.
BELIEVE BEST SCENARIO FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA WILL BE VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER 21Z ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AND
FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...SIMILAR TO
LATEST RAP MODEL AND 4KM WRF DEPICTIONS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL
JET BEGINS TO RESTRENGTHEN. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WITHIN
AN AREA OF STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS EARLY ON. PW VALUES ALSO INCREASE TO JUST OVER 2
INCHES DURING THIS TIME...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I80. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A
WINDOW FOR A TORNADO THREAT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION
SPECIALLY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING AS 0-1KM SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40KT. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPC HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND HAVE VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEVERE STORMS
WILL DEVELOP...FIRST IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SPREADING EAST/SOUTHEAST TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING. GIVEN NUMEROUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ACROSS THE REGION...
IT`S ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE OF THE WEATHER LATER TODAY.
WHILE THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER LINGERING ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE LAST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE PLEASANT WITH WESTERLY DRYING WINDS
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER DEVELOPING WAVE
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS TO THE AREA BY MONDAY. GIVEN
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES...THE REGION IS UNDER ANOTHER
SLIGHT RISK FROM THE SPC FOR DAY 3.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
HEALTHY CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE AREA...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR SEVERE RISK. THIS WAVE SHOULD PUSH NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA
BY 12Z TUESDAY. IT DOES GET HOT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS HEADING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...AND IT GETS FAIRLY MUGGY WITH
DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S AND MAYBE EVEN LOWER 70S. WILL
CONTINUE DRY TREND INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER
WAVE MOVE INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING STORMS BACK TO
THE FORECAST. USED MODEL BLENDED DATA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PICK UP LATER TONIGHT...LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL GUSTS AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL JET PROMPTED THE
INCLUSION OF WIND SHEAR AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BY
MORNING COULD BRING A FEW TSTMS TO THE ERN NEBR REGION...BUT
COVERAGE/CHANCES APPEARED TOO LOW TO MENTION IN 06Z TAFS.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE FURTHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTN
AND THE TSTM THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG UPPER SYSTEM PUSH INTO THE AREA. ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAIN GREATLY REDUCING VSBYS...HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 KTS OR
MORE COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
WPC HAS FORECAST 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS A PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY...HEAVIEST AXIS IS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I80. THESE VALUES ARE NEAR 3/6 HOURLY FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES. BECAUSE OF THIS...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. IT HAS BEEN
SEVERAL DAYS SINCE WE`VE HAD SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL...THUS WILL ONLY
MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN OUR LOCAL FORECAST. HAVE OPTED TO
NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CERTAINLY HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ANY TRAINING OF STORMS TONIGHT AND ISSUE SPOT FLOOD
WARNINGS AS NECESSARY. PW VALUES DO INCREASE TO RIGHT AROUND 2
INCHES...AND K INDEX DOES INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ051>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR IAZ069-079-080-090-091.&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...CHERMOK
HYDROLOGY...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1116 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
SEVERE WEATHER IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.
UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE AS
HIGH AS AROUND 100 METERS AT 500 MB. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAS A 105
KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. THERMAL TROUGH AT 700 MB
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. 850 MB MOISTURE WAS LACKING LOCALLY...BUT WILL BE
RETURNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP DEWPOINTS OF 16 C OR MORE THAT WERE
OVER WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION...WE COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY LINGER OR WE MAY SEE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FROM 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
THAT IS NOT TO SAY SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT POSSIBLE BEFORE OR AFTER
THAT...BUT THAT IS THE MAIN WINDOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MAY BECOME TOO WARM FOR CONVECTION BEFORE EARLY
EVENING...WITH 12Z NAM INCREASING 700 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE 11-
14C RANGE AT 21Z. BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE CAP WILL DECREASE OR
BREAK BY 00Z OR SOONER. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO KEEP
OUR AREA CAPPED UNTIL CLOSER TO 6 OR 7 PM BUT THOSE WERE NOT FAVORED
AT THIS TIME. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE HRRR MODEL DOES
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT HAS DONE A GOOD JOB FOR THE MOST PART ON
SOME OF OUR RECENT SEVERE EVENTS.
THE FOCUS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/COLD
FRONT PUSHING EAST AND ALSO NEAR AND EAST OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
MAIN DRY LINE SHOULD BE FARTHER SOUTH IN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME HIGHLY UNSTABLE...WITH ML CAPE VALUES
POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR FROM 30-50
KNOTS. SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY MERGE OR
COMBINE INTO ONE OR MORE COMPLEXES...WITH THREAT GRADUALLY SHIFTING
MORE TOWARD WIND AND HEAVY RAIN AFTER 10 PM. TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
HIGHEST NEAR ANY BOUNDARIES AND JUST EAST OR NORTHEAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
FOR SATURDAY...WITH GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
FOR DEEP MIXING...DECIDED TO BUMP HIGHS UP A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. IF CLOUD COVER AND/OR PCPN COVERAGE IS GREATER THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THIS COULD NEGATIVELY AFFECT HIGHS.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD END SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND INSTABILITY DROPS OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY. AFTER THE EARLY MORNING THREAT OF STORMS SUNDAY...
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...WE EXPECT THE REST OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT TO BE DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH
RANGING TO MID 80S SOUTH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY START TO RETURN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE SO ON MONDAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE MONDAY...BUT WITH A MUCH LOWER THREAT THAN FOR SATURDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL
AMPLIFY...BUT WITH LITTLE PROGRESSION THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL
PCPN CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED PDS PRETTY MUCH REVOLVING AROUND
BNDRY AND MOISTURE INTERACTION AS NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THRU. BEGINNING MON NIGHT...WARMER FRONT/MID LYR
AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ASSOC WITH SFC LOW NEAR THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
WILL LIFT THRU THE CWA AND BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM ACTIVITY THRU THE
NIGHT. WITH AN OPEN GULF...QUITE GENEROUS LLVL MOISTURE ADV WILL
ENSURE A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE PER KI VALUES OF
40. IN ADDITION...GIVEN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR PCPN EFFICIENCY THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
HIGH. ON TUES CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE GETS DISPLACED EWD AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN. ALL THIS IN RESPONSE TO DEEP TROF DIGGING OVER THE
WRN CONUS.
LATE NEXT WEEK THEN...PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH MODELS SHOWING THE WRN CONUS TROF TAKING ON A NEG TILT AS IT
CROSSES THE ROCKIES. AS SFC LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING DPVA...MODELS PROG A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD
FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE NOTICEABLE
DIFFERENCES BTWN THE ECM AND GFS...HAVE DECIDED TO TRIMS POPS DOWN
JUST A BIT.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PICK UP LATER TONIGHT...LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL GUSTS AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL JET PROMPTED THE
INCLUSION OF WIND SHEAR AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BY
MORNING COULD BRING A FEW TSTMS TO THE ERN NEBR REGION...BUT
COVERAGE/CHANCES APPEARED TOO LOW TO MENTION IN 06Z TAFS.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE FURTHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTN
AND THE TSTM THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG UPPER SYSTEM PUSH INTO THE AREA. ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAIN GREATLY REDUCING VSBYS...HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 KTS OR
MORE COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
EVENING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
748 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUD SKIES WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL TODAY. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 711 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATE FCST TO SHARPEN POP GRADIENT
FROM SCHC ACRS THE DACKS TO LIKELY OR HIGHER CPV AND POINTS EAST
THRU 15Z TODAY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP THIS
AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK SFC HEATING INTERACTING WITH
LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL QPF WL BE<0.10". ALSO...HAVE TRIED
TO CAPTURE BRIEF CLRING IN VIS SATL PICS ACRS THE SLV THIS MORNING
IN THE GRIDS. THINKING THIS WL QUICKLY FILL IN BY THIS AFTN WITH
SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY PRODUCING A STRATO CUMULUS CLOUD DECK. TEMPS
WL STRUGGLE IN THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW L70S POSSIBLE IN
THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND WARMER UHI OF THE CPV.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEPENING MID/UPPER LVL
TROF ACRS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH RIBBON OF ENHANCED DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTING INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST RAP AND
HRRR SHOW ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH AND SOME UVVS ACRS OUR
CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA BTWN 12-15Z THIS MORNING...SO WL CONT TO
MENTION CHC POPS CENTRAL AND LIKELY EXTREME EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED BEHIND POTENT 5H
VORT ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY/WESTERN NY...BUT THIS WL LIFT NW OF OUR
CWA TODAY. SOUNDING SHOW PLENTY OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE ACRS OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH STEEP SFC TO 800MB LAPSE RATES AND SOME WEAK
CAPE WITH VALUES OF 50 TO 100 J/KG. THINKING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST WL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BEFORE SKIES CLOUD UP AND
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOP ACRS THE MTNS. LLVL CAA ON
NORTHWEST FLW WL DROP OUR PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C
TODAY...RESULTING IN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S MTNS TO L70S WARMER
VALLEYS. ADDITIONAL QPF WL BE LIGHT<0.10 AS PW VALUES FALL BELOW
0.50".
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE AMOUNT
OF CLRING TWD SUNDAY MORNING AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ON TEMPS.
BOTH NAM/GFS SHOWS CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS TRACKING ACRS
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER RH. HOWEVER...THE
COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE BLW 750MB AND UPSLOPE ON NW WINDS
WL CREATE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREENS. IN ADDITION...A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE THRU 03Z. TEMPS WITH GOOD MIXING
AND CLOUDS WL HOLD IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S WARMER VALLEYS.
ON SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ALONG
WITH 1022MB SFC HIGH PRES. THIS WL RESULT IN PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...WITH EXCEPTION OF A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS THE
MTNS. ALWAYS HAVE TO WATCH BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND LEFTOVER
MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS OF RAIN...IN FORMING ADDITIONAL
FAIR WX CLOUDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN BTWN 8-10C...BUT WITH MORE
SUN AND BETTER MIXING EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80F MOST
LOCATIONS. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE CONTS BUT 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 10-12C. EXPECT LLVL THERMAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLR SKIES. COLDEST READINGS WL BE IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF THE DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH LOWS IN THE M/U
30S TO M/U 40S WARMER VALLEYS AND MID SLOPE THERMAL BELT.
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE FLATTENS AS 5H VORT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850
TO 500MB MOISTURE MOVES ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 18Z-00Z. INITIALLY COLUMN
WL BE VERY DRY WITH PLACEMENT OF RIDGE...SO EXPECTING 1ST SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH VIRGA...BEFORE BETTER MOISTURE
ARRIVES BY 18Z ACRS THE SLV. NAM CONTS TO SHOW SFC DWPTS SURGING
INTO THE M/U 60S ON MONDAY AFTN...WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500
J/KG ACRS THE SLV. THIS MAYBE OVERDONE DUE TO THE WARM SFC
DWPTS...BUT EVEN THE GFS SHOWS SOME CAPE BTWN 800-1200 J/KG ON
MONDAY AFTN. BOTTOM LINE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE
MENTION...BUT BLW SEVERE LIMITS. 85H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY TWD EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT FRIDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ACROSS FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING. WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...MID-LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS WEAKER AND DRIER SOLUTION
OF GFS REGARDING THIS FEATURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY...
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE DRIER ECMWF WHICH MAINTAINS NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AROUND CUTOFF LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S...THEN COOL TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...
EXCEPT 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AWAY
FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF VERMONT.
AREA OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 16Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL RESULT
IN MORE CLOUDS...EXCEPT SOME CLEARING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
SITES THAT SEE CLEARING MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS TODAY WEST-NORTHWEST
10-15 KTS...DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT EXCEPT PATCHY FOG WITH A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE ALL TAF LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WIND
CONDITIONS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
PCPN POSSIBLE. GENERALLY VFR TUE-WED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
716 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUD SKIES WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL TODAY. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 711 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATE FCST TO SHARPEN POP GRADIENT
FROM SCHC ACRS THE DACKS TO LIKELY OR HIGHER CPV AND POINTS EAST
THRU 15Z TODAY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP THIS
AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK SFC HEATING INTERACTING WITH
LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL QPF WL BE<0.10". ALSO...HAVE TRIED
TO CAPTURE BRIEF CLRING IN VIS SATL PICS ACRS THE SLV THIS MORNING
IN THE GRIDS. THINKING THIS WL QUICKLY FILL IN BY THIS AFTN WITH
SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY PRODUCING A STRATO CUMULUS CLOUD DECK. TEMPS
WL STRUGGLE IN THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW L70S POSSIBLE IN
THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND WARMER UHI OF THE CPV.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEPENING MID/UPPER LVL
TROF ACRS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH RIBBON OF ENHANCED DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTING INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST RAP AND
HRRR SHOW ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH AND SOME UVVS ACRS OUR
CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA BTWN 12-15Z THIS MORNING...SO WL CONT TO
MENTION CHC POPS CENTRAL AND LIKELY EXTREME EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED BEHIND POTENT 5H
VORT ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY/WESTERN NY...BUT THIS WL LIFT NW OF OUR
CWA TODAY. SOUNDING SHOW PLENTY OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE ACRS OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH STEEP SFC TO 800MB LAPSE RATES AND SOME WEAK
CAPE WITH VALUES OF 50 TO 100 J/KG. THINKING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST WL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BEFORE SKIES CLOUD UP AND
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOP ACRS THE MTNS. LLVL CAA ON
NORTHWEST FLW WL DROP OUR PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C
TODAY...RESULTING IN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S MTNS TO L70S WARMER
VALLEYS. ADDITIONAL QPF WL BE LIGHT<0.10 AS PW VALUES FALL BELOW
0.50".
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE AMOUNT
OF CLRING TWD SUNDAY MORNING AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ON TEMPS.
BOTH NAM/GFS SHOWS CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS TRACKING ACRS
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER RH. HOWEVER...THE
COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE BLW 750MB AND UPSLOPE ON NW WINDS
WL CREATE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREENS. IN ADDITION...A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE THRU 03Z. TEMPS WITH GOOD MIXING
AND CLOUDS WL HOLD IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S WARMER VALLEYS.
ON SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ALONG
WITH 1022MB SFC HIGH PRES. THIS WL RESULT IN PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...WITH EXCEPTION OF A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS THE
MTNS. ALWAYS HAVE TO WATCH BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND LEFTOVER
MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS OF RAIN...IN FORMING ADDITIONAL
FAIR WX CLOUDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN BTWN 8-10C...BUT WITH MORE
SUN AND BETTER MIXING EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80F MOST
LOCATIONS. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE CONTS BUT 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 10-12C. EXPECT LLVL THERMAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLR SKIES. COLDEST READINGS WL BE IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF THE DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH LOWS IN THE M/U
30S TO M/U 40S WARMER VALLEYS AND MID SLOPE THERMAL BELT.
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE FLATTENS AS 5H VORT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850
TO 500MB MOISTURE MOVES ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 18Z-00Z. INITIALLY COLUMN
WL BE VERY DRY WITH PLACEMENT OF RIDGE...SO EXPECTING 1ST SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH VIRGA...BEFORE BETTER MOISTURE
ARRIVES BY 18Z ACRS THE SLV. NAM CONTS TO SHOW SFC DWPTS SURGING
INTO THE M/U 60S ON MONDAY AFTN...WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500
J/KG ACRS THE SLV. THIS MAYBE OVERDONE DUE TO THE WARM SFC
DWPTS...BUT EVEN THE GFS SHOWS SOME CAPE BTWN 800-1200 J/KG ON
MONDAY AFTN. BOTTOM LINE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE
MENTION...BUT BLW SEVERE LIMITS. 85H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY TWD EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT FRIDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ACROSS FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING. WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...MID-LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS WEAKER AND DRIER SOLUTION
OF GFS REGARDING THIS FEATURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY...
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE DRIER ECMWF WHICH MAINTAINS NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AROUND CUTOFF LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S...THEN COOL TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...
EXCEPT 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST.
PREVAILING CIGS IFR AT SLK/MPV TILL ABOUT 12Z AND MVFR AT REST OF
SITES...WITH VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS. SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY MOVES IN AND
WINDS TURN NORTHWEST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT SLK/MPV WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY
FOG 06-12Z SUNDAY AT SLK AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALL TAF LOCATIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN PCPN POSSIBLE. GENERALLY VFR TUE-WED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
439 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUD SKIES WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL TODAY. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEPENING MID/UPPER LVL
TROF ACRS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH RIBBON OF ENHANCED DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTING INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST RAP AND
HRRR SHOW ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH AND SOME UVVS ACRS OUR
CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA BTWN 12-15Z THIS MORNING...SO WL CONT TO
MENTION CHC POPS CENTRAL AND LIKELY EXTREME EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED BEHIND POTENT 5H
VORT ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY/WESTERN NY...BUT THIS WL LIFT NW OF OUR
CWA TODAY. SOUNDING SHOW PLENTY OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE ACRS OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH STEEP SFC TO 800MB LAPSE RATES AND SOME WEAK
CAPE WITH VALUES OF 50 TO 100 J/KG. THINKING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST WL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BEFORE SKIES CLOUD UP AND
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOP ACRS THE MTNS. LLVL CAA ON
NORTHWEST FLW WL DROP OUR PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C
TODAY...RESULTING IN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S MTNS TO L70S WARMER
VALLEYS. ADDITIONAL QPF WL BE LIGHT<0.10 AS PW VALUES FALL BELOW
0.50".
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE AMOUNT
OF CLRING TWD SUNDAY MORNING AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ON TEMPS.
BOTH NAM/GFS SHOWS CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS TRACKING ACRS
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER RH. HOWEVER...THE
COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE BLW 750MB AND UPSLOPE ON NW WINDS
WL CREATE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREENS. IN ADDITION...A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE THRU 03Z. TEMPS WITH GOOD MIXING
AND CLOUDS WL HOLD IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S WARMER VALLEYS.
ON SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ALONG
WITH 1022MB SFC HIGH PRES. THIS WL RESULT IN PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...WITH EXCEPTION OF A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS THE
MTNS. ALWAYS HAVE TO WATCH BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND LEFTOVER
MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS OF RAIN...IN FORMING ADDITIONAL
FAIR WX CLOUDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN BTWN 8-10C...BUT WITH MORE
SUN AND BETTER MIXING EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80F MOST
LOCATIONS. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE CONTS BUT 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 10-12C. EXPECT LLVL THERMAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLR SKIES. COLDEST READINGS WL BE IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF THE DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH LOWS IN THE M/U
30S TO M/U 40S WARMER VALLEYS AND MID SLOPE THERMAL BELT.
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE FLATTENS AS 5H VORT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850
TO 500MB MOISTURE MOVES ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 18Z-00Z. INITIALLY COLUMN
WL BE VERY DRY WITH PLACEMENT OF RIDGE...SO EXPECTING 1ST SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH VIRGA...BEFORE BETTER MOISTURE
ARRIVES BY 18Z ACRS THE SLV. NAM CONTS TO SHOW SFC DWPTS SURGING
INTO THE M/U 60S ON MONDAY AFTN...WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500
J/KG ACRS THE SLV. THIS MAYBE OVERDONE DUE TO THE WARM SFC
DWPTS...BUT EVEN THE GFS SHOWS SOME CAPE BTWN 800-1200 J/KG ON
MONDAY AFTN. BOTTOM LINE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE
MENTION...BUT BLW SEVERE LIMITS. 85H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY TWD EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT FRIDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ACROSS FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING. WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...MID-LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS WEAKER AND DRIER SOLUTION
OF GFS REGARDING THIS FEATURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY...
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE DRIER ECMWF WHICH MAINTAINS NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AROUND CUTOFF LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S...THEN COOL TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...
EXCEPT 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST.
PREVAILING CIGS IFR AT SLK/MPV TILL ABOUT 12Z AND MVFR AT REST OF
SITES...WITH VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS. SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY MOVES IN AND
WINDS TURN NORTHWEST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT SLK/MPV WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY
FOG 06-12Z SUNDAY AT SLK AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALL TAF LOCATIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN PCPN POSSIBLE. GENERALLY VFR TUE-WED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
406 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUD SKIES WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL TODAY. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEPENING MID/UPPER LVL
TROF ACRS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH RIBBON OF ENHANCED DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTING INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST RAP AND
HRRR SHOW ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH AND SOME UVVS ACRS OUR
CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA BTWN 12-15Z THIS MORNING...SO WL CONT TO
MENTION CHC POPS CENTRAL AND LIKELY EXTREME EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED BEHIND POTENT 5H
VORT ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY/WESTERN NY...BUT THIS WL LIFT NW OF OUR
CWA TODAY. SOUNDING SHOW PLENTY OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE ACRS OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH STEEP SFC TO 800MB LAPSE RATES AND SOME WEAK
CAPE WITH VALUES OF 50 TO 100 J/KG. THINKING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST WL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BEFORE SKIES CLOUD UP AND
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOP ACRS THE MTNS. LLVL CAA ON
NORTHWEST FLW WL DROP OUR PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C
TODAY...RESULTING IN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S MTNS TO L70S WARMER
VALLEYS. ADDITIONAL QPF WL BE LIGHT<0.10 AS PW VALUES FALL BELOW
0.50".
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE AMOUNT
OF CLRING TWD SUNDAY MORNING AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ON TEMPS.
BOTH NAM/GFS SHOWS CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS TRACKING ACRS
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER RH. HOWEVER...THE
COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE BLW 750MB AND UPSLOPE ON NW WINDS
WL CREATE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREENS. IN ADDITION...A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE THRU 03Z. TEMPS WITH GOOD MIXING
AND CLOUDS WL HOLD IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S WARMER VALLEYS.
ON SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ALONG
WITH 1022MB SFC HIGH PRES. THIS WL RESULT IN PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...WITH EXCEPTION OF A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS THE
MTNS. ALWAYS HAVE TO WATCH BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND LEFTOVER
MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS OF RAIN...IN FORMING ADDITIONAL
FAIR WX CLOUDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN BTWN 8-10C...BUT WITH MORE
SUN AND BETTER MIXING EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80F MOST
LOCATIONS. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE CONTS BUT 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 10-12C. EXPECT LLVL THERMAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLR SKIES. COLDEST READINGS WL BE IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF THE DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH LOWS IN THE M/U
30S TO M/U 40S WARMER VALLEYS AND MID SLOPE THERMAL BELT.
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE FLATTENS AS 5H VORT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850
TO 500MB MOISTURE MOVES ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 18Z-00Z. INITIALLY COLUMN
WL BE VERY DRY WITH PLACEMENT OF RIDGE...SO EXPECTING 1ST SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH VIRGA...BEFORE BETTER MOISTURE
ARRIVES BY 18Z ACRS THE SLV. NAM CONTS TO SHOW SFC DWPTS SURGING
INTO THE M/U 60S ON MONDAY AFTN...WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500
J/KG ACRS THE SLV. THIS MAYBE OVERDONE DUE TO THE WARM SFC
DWPTS...BUT EVEN THE GFS SHOWS SOME CAPE BTWN 800-1200 J/KG ON
MONDAY AFTN. BOTTOM LINE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE
MENTION...BUT BLW SEVERE LIMITS. 85H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY TWD EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT FRIDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET FORECAST PERIOD SHAPING
UP FOR NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR MID-JUNE AND MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY LOW...AND SHOULD BE SHOWERY
IN CHARACTER.
SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE MONDAY WILL BRING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THRU MID-AFTERNOON...AND 850MB TEMPS OF +13C
(12Z ECMWF) TO +14C (12Z GFS) WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
80-84F RANGE. UPR RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE DAY IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC ASCENT AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
HAVE LEFT ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY EVIDENT IN MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS.
HOWEVER...POPS DO INCREASE TO 20-40 PERCENT 21Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY WITH BEST POTENTIAL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH...WITH TREND FOR CLEARING
TOWARD DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
55-62F...WITH LIMITED RADIATIONAL COOLING OWING TO CLOUD COVER.
ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...MID-LEVEL PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY
IN THE MID-UPR 50S...SO THE AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE.
CAN/T RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND GENERAL STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODELS HAVE SHOWN
CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY ON TIMING OF SHOWERS MID-LATE
WEEK...BUT OVERALL THE SIGNAL IS FOR RELATIVELY WEAK ACTIVITY.
THUS...HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE (10-20
PERCENT) RANGE COMPARED TO CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR THE TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY IN THE
UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
50S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST.
PREVAILING CIGS IFR AT SLK/MPV TILL ABOUT 12Z AND MVFR AT REST OF
SITES...WITH VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS. SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY MOVES IN AND
WINDS TURN NORTHWEST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT SLK/MPV WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY
FOG 06-12Z SUNDAY AT SLK AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALL TAF LOCATIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN PCPN POSSIBLE. GENERALLY VFR TUE-WED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
316 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS IT CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME ILL-DEFINED. HIGH PRESSURE...NEARLY OVERHEAD
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL MOVE PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN AS
IT RIDGES WESTWARD FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD
BACK ACROSS THE AREA MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK...THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT BASICALLY ALIGNED ALONG
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. IT CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME MOVEMENT TO THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...WITH THE AFTERNOON THRU EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE
...ITS MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD WILL TEMPORARILY BE ON HOLD THIS AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING. WITH 2 SFC BOUNDARIES PROVIDING SOME LIFT ACROSS THE
FA...ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT 20
TO POSSIBLY 30 POPS FOR LOCATIONS BASICALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES WITHIN THE ILM CWA. THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE ILM CWA IS
UNDER DECENT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND HAS BEEN KEEPING A LID ON ANY
VERTICAL CU DEVELOPMENT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS
DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE ILM CWA. LATEST
SREF POPS ALSO REMAIN UNDER 30 PERCENT FOR THE ILM CWA COASTAL
COUNTIES. FOR TONIGHT...THE FRONT FINALLY MEANDERS SOUTHWARD AND
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...IT SHOULD FINALLY BE SOUTH OF THE FA. EXPECT
THE DRIER AIR...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT.
BOTH NAM AND GFS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ILLUSTRATE THIS DRY AIR
INTRUSION NICELY. FOR AFTN MAX TEMPS TODAY...STAYED CLOSER TO THE
HIGHER MOS GUIDANCE WHICH IN THIS CASE IS THE GFS...EVEN AREAS
CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL SEE 90+ DEGREE MAX READINGS. FOR TONIGHTS
LOWS...AVAILABLE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE VERY SIMILAR TO ONE ANOTHER AND
SEE NO REASON TO DETOUR FROM THEIR NUMBERS. HAVE INDICATED PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH CLOUDINESS THINNING
OUT AND WINDS LIKELY TO DECOUPLE...PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY HRS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY WILL
QUICKLY BECOME ILL-DEFINED DURING SUN AS ONSHORE WINDS BRING A
DEVELOPING SEABREEZE WELL INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH SUN AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.
ANY CONVECTION EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. THE REAL
ONLY OPPORTUNITY SHOULD BE SUN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE GRAND STRAND AND SOUTHERN PEE DEE REGION WHERE THE
INCOMING DRY AIR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. SINCE WE CAN NOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF POP UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THESE AREAS.
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLE FOR MID JUNE...EVEN
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. WE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 INLAND WITH COASTAL AREAS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S AS A
SEABREEZE WORKS WELL INLAND EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE GIVEN THE
PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW. THE DRIER THAN NORMAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AT NIGHT. NIGHTTIME LOWS
AT THE BEACHES WILL BE HIGHER DUE TO MARINE INFLUENCES...LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LETHARGIC
PATTERN AT THE MID LEVELS AS WE WOULD ANTICIPATE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL EVER SO SLOWLY BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE REFLECTIVE OF THIS
CHANGE AS WELL WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON THE MAPS UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN
THE WESTERLIES DROPPING SOUTH WITH THE RIDGE SHOW A PIEDMONT TROUGH.
THE POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THAT MATTER FOLLOW THIS TREND WITH
MINIMAL POPS MAINLY INLAND FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...POPS RECOVER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BUT
NOTHING IN THE MIX TO WARRANT VALUES HIGHER THAN THAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE VERY WARM THE FIRST TWO DAYS WITH MIDDLE 90S INLAND TO NEAR
90 ALONG THE COAST. THE HIGHER POPS SHOULD TRIM A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OFF THESE NUMBERS LATER IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. A
CUMULUS FIELD IS FINALLY FILLING IN ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
THE NOSE OF A DRY AIR INTRUSION ALOFT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE ADVECTING IN FROM THE
W...BUT DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 ARE STILL OCCURRING AT THE IMMEDIATE
NC COAST...IE. KILM. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT ANY CONVECTION THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. PER LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION
COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR VCTS AT KILM. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE SOMEWHAT
PINNED SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT TO GET THINGS STARTED. THE
ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY SUNSET.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING UNDER SKC SKIES.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE MVFR VSBYS WILL DEVELOP. CHANCES OF
IFR APPEAR LOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST LAYER SFC-5K. AROUND
DAYBREAK VFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GENERALLY E WINDS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE EARLY MORNING IFR MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WITH THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
MEANDER ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL CAROLINAS THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON ...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT WILL YIELD NEARLY
A VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10 KT. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
WILL PRODUCE A SE-S WIND 10-15 KT NEAR SHORE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL
WINDS BECOMING NE-E AT 10-15 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3
FT...AND WILL FLIRT WITH 4 FT THIS AFTN/EVENG ACROSS THE WATERS
OFF CAPE FEAR. NO APPRECIABLE GROUND SWELL TO SPEAK OF...WITH
SIGNIFICANT SEAS RULED BY WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 5 TO 7
SECOND PERIODS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
EASTERLY SUN INTO MON...VEERING TO SE LATER MON AND TO SSW MON NIGHT
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE REORIENTS ITSELF OFFSHORE. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RELAXED AND DO NOT EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO
EXCEED 10 TO 15 KT EVEN IN THE VICINITY OF A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE
EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE AND A LAND BREEZE DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 3 FT. A WEAK 8 TO 10
SECOND ESE SWELL WILL BE PRESENT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WATERS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2-3
FEET. THERE IS A TREND OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD WHEN THE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH THE FORMATION OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. IN THIS CASE STRONGER EQUATES TO THE HIGHER
END OF THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE. SLOW INCREASE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOUR
FOOTERS FROM DEVELOPING BUT THESE WILL APPEAR JUST BEYOND THE PERIOD
CONCLUDES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
147 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF
SHORE THROUGH MID WEEK AS PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
INLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT BASICALLY ALIGNED ALONG
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. IT CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME MOVEMENT TO THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...WITH THE AFTERNOON THRU EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE
EXPECTED...ITS MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD WILL TEMPORARILY BE ON HOLD
TODAY. WITH 2 SFC BOUNDARIES PROVIDING SOME LIFT ACROSS THE FA
ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WILL HIGHLIGHT 20 TO POSSIBLY 30
POPS FOR LOCATIONS BASICALLY EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. LATEST
SREF KEEPS POPS UNDER 30 PERCENT. FOR TONIGHT...THE FRONT MEANDERS
SOUTHWARD AND JUST AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY...IT SHOULD FINALLY BE
SOUTH OF THE FA. EXPECT DRIER AIR...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...TO PUSH
ACROSS THE FA AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY...STAYED CLOSER TO THE HIGHER MOS GUIDANCE WHICH IN THIS
CASE IS THE GFS. FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...AVAILABLE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE
VERY SIMILAR TO ONE ANOTHER AND SEE NO REASON TO DETOUR FROM THEIR
NUMBERS. HAVE INDICATED PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WITH CLOUDINESS THINNING OUT AND WINDS LIKELY TO
DECOUPLE...PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN
SUNDAY HRS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...................................
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT PRECEDED BY A TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY DROP SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. THE FRONT...AS EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR...DOES NOT
HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF THERMAL SUPPORT BUT DOES SPORT A
NOTICEABLE DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY...WITH 60S AND EVEN UPPER 50S
FOR DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL FOR A
WHILE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE
FRONT GIVES SOME PUSH-BACK. THE FRONT WILL RESUME ITS SOUTHWARD
TREK OVERNIGHT.
LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE THE RELATIVELY DRY
MID-LEVELS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE INDICES FAVOR CONVECTION TODAY AND
THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS...EXPECT THAT COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO RESTRICTED MOISTURE ALOFT. HAVE CAPPED POPS
AT 30 TODAY...SO EXPECTING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE PROFILE LOOKS
BEST RIGHT AROUND NOW BEFORE IT STARTS A DRYING TREND. OVERNIGHT
WILL DRY OUT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND DRYER AIR MOVES IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90...AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE
NORTH BEHIND WEAKENING FRONT SAGGING FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
KEEP LOCAL FORECAST AREA CLEAR OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS
WILL BE REINFORCED BY A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK ITS
WAY DOWN THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE LEAVING A COUPLE OF DRY AND WARM
SUMMER DAYS. THIS DRIER AIR WILL BRING SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES BY SUN AFTN INTO MONDAY. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CU AND
WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED SHWR POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CAROLINA EARLIER IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
TO START THE WEEK OFF THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. PREVAILING WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND EXPECT SEA/LAND BREEZE TO DOMINATE WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME TEMPS...DAY TIME HIGHS UP CLOSE TO 90 AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WITH RIDGE EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FARTHER OFF SHORE
THROUGH MID WEEK ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO SET UP WITH
PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL ACT TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS CREEPING BACK UP AROUND 70. BASICALLY
EXPECTING MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER...ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE
ALOFT SHOULD ACT TO SUPPRESS AFTN CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART.
EXPECT SOME CU DEVELOPMENT AND GREATER CHC OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THURS AND FRI AS RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND BROAD TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST PUSHES A WEST TO EAST FACING FRONT SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY FRI. TEMPS WILL HEAD BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS AND H5 HEIGHTS RISE WITH PLENTY OF
WARM JUNE SUNSHINE AS WE APPROACH THE LONGEST DAY OF THE YEAR. DAY
TIME HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS.
A CUMULUS FIELD IS FINALLY FILLING IN ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS. THE NOSE OF A DRY AIR INTRUSION ALOFT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE ADVECTING
IN FROM THE W...BUT DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 ARE STILL OCCURRING AT THE
IMMEDIATE NC COAST...IE. KILM. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND WEAK
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT ANY CONVECTION THAT TRIES TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. PER LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...THE THREAT FOR
CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR VCTS AT KILM. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE
SOMEWHAT PINNED SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT TO GET THINGS
STARTED. THE ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY SUNSET.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING UNDER SKC SKIES.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE MVFR VSBYS WILL DEVELOP. CHANCES OF
IFR APPEAR LOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST LAYER SFC-5K. AROUND
DAYBREAK VFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GENERALLY E WINDS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE EARLY MORNING IFR MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM SATURDAY...WITH THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
MEANDER ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TODAY...THE SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN AND GRADIENT WILL YIELD NEARLY A VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION
AT 5 TO 10 KT. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL PRODUCE A SE-S WIND
10-15 KT NEAR SHORE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN MAKE ITS PUSH
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL WINDS BECOMING NE-E AT 10-15
KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT...AND WILL FLIRT WITH 4 FT
THIS AFTN/EVENG THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. NO GROUND SWELL TO SPEAK
OF...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE RULED BY WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING
5 TO 7 SECOND PERIODS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..................................
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS FRONT IS WEAK...GRADIENT
WILL NOT BE TIGHT AND WINDS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...10 TO 15
KTS OR LESS...THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE TODAY...AND AROUND 2 FT OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WHILE WEAKENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT 10-15 KT FROM THE NE WILL VEER
TO SE 15 KT THROUGH SUN AFTN. A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE BUT LIGHT PREVAILING FLOW WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY LAND/SEA BREEZE SUN AND MON. SEAS
WILL BE SUBSIDING THROUGH EARLY SUN REMAINING BELOW 3 FT WITH
SLIGHT CHOP IN THE AFTN. WIND WAVES WILL MIX WITH A 10 SEC
EASTERLY SWELL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE
AS PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW UP TO 15 KTS ENHANCED
EACH AFTN BY THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FT THROUGH WED INTO THURS IN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY PUSH. A LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
WED AS A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE BEGINS TO DOMINATE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
126 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY
WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM SAT...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOC WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF
HWY 17 WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS NOW FROM SOUTH OF OREGON INLET SW
ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND TO PAMLICO...SOUTHERN CRAVEN AND EASTERN
ONSLOW COUNTIES. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL AND HRRR PROGS
THE PRECIP WILL PUSH EAST OF THE OBX AROUND 09Z. BEHIND THIS AREA
OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS EXPECT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM EITHER WITH THE FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TRIAD
TO CLT AREA...PUSHING THROUGH LATE DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY
(1000J/KG OR LESS) AND INCREASING CIN. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG
STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. TEMPS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S INLAND TO
MID 70S COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 430 PM FRI...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF
CHANNELED VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST BY MIDDAY
WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN THE SEA- BREEZE MAY DEVELOP
AND PUSH INLAND WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S SAT UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM... LATEST MODEL RUNS SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS OF
DRY CONDITIONS FOR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SCT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY STILL PSBL SAT EVENING WITH FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND
LINGERING SEA BREEZE INTERACTION...THEN RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT
EXPECTED TO KEEP AREA RAIN-FREE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TUESDAY WITH RETURN TO BERMUDA
HIGH/INLAND TROF PATTERN FOR REST OF WEEK...WITH CORRESPONDING CLIMO
20/30 POPS DURING PERIOD. GFS INDICATES BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING IN
LATE THU BUT LEANED TO ECMWF AND WPC WITH FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHER POPS THAT AFTN.
WEAK COOLING BEHIND FRONT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN HEAT WILL RETURN REST OF PERIOD WITH
HIGHS INTO LOWER 90S FOR INLAND SECTIONS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SAT...THE LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAS PUSHED EAST
OF TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING AND ONLY EXPECT AN ISOLATE SHOWER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL WITH FRONTAL FORCING MOVING IN LATE
BUT THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY STABLE IN THE POST
CONVECTIVE COLD POOL. MOS GUIDANCE AND NARRE ENSEMBLES INDICATING
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND
POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR...MAINLY AT OAJ. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING
NORTHERLY. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN RTES TODAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEABREEZE. EWN AND OAJ
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WITH PGV
LEAST LIKELY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SUB-VFR PSBL WITH SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER
SRN SECTIONS SAT EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
DIURNAL SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE PSBL AGAIN TUE-WED WITH LOCALIZED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM FRI...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS
10-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3-5 FT BUT EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT TO AOB 15KT...WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY BY
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN WATERS TOWARD THE
END OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST AND
NORTHWEST SAT MORNING. WAVEWATCH/SWAN IN AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS
3-5 OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHIFT NE SAT 10-15 KT FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT...AND ENE AROUND 10 KT SOUTH. SEAS DIMINISH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS SAT AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN ELEVATED IN NE FLOW
FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS...2-4 FT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD...BUT DID INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY LATE
TUE AND TUE NIGHT AND INDICATING SW 15-20 KT FOR WED. COLD FRONT
STILL ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO N/NE 10 TO 15 KT. THE
GRADIENT WILL FURTHER RELAX OVER THE NC WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH NE FLOW VEERING TO SE/S BY MONDAY AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 3-4 FT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT BY MONDAY. SW WINDS DEVELOP AND
INCREASE TUESDAY TO 10 TO 15 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE
AND A LOW PRESSURE TROF DEVELOPS INLAND...WITH WINDS INCREASING WED
WITH TIGHTER PRES GRAD. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE WED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
A TEMPORARY REPAIR HAS BEEN MADE TO THE KMHX RADAR. WE WILL
EVALUATE PERFORMANCE WITH THIS REPAIR IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL WORK WILL NEED TO BE DONE TO MAKE A PERMANENT REPAIR.
GIVEN AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED FRIDAY WE MAY DELAY TAKING
THE RADAR DOWN UNTIL THE WEEKEND TO WORK ON A MORE PERMANENT FIX.
IF THE RADAR BECOMES UNAVAILABLE...PLEASE USE ADJACENT RADARS IN
WILMINGTON (KLTX)...RALEIGH (KRAX)...AND WAKEFIELD VA (KAKQ).
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/SK
MARINE...JBM/CQD/DAG
EQUIPMENT...DAG/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
215 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTION
CHANCES AND PLACEMENT.
CURRENTLY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN BACK NORTHWEST
TOWARDS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. AN IMPULSE OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD...PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST RADARS INDICATE BACK EDGE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
FROM AROUND BOWMAN TO DICKINSON NORTHWARD TO STANLEY. TO THE WEST
OF THIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER EASTERN MONTANA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE 16 UTC HRRR STILL INDICATES
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN MONTANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ROTATING INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. THUS WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
TO THE EAST...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS ALSO TRACKING ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE FAR SOUTHEAST FROM JAMESTOWN SOUTH
THROUGH OAKES IS THE ONLY AREA OF THE CWA INDICATING MINOR
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. BUT WITH
CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE JAMES WILL KNOCK DOWN THE
MEAGER AT BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONGER CELLS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT OVERALL THE SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP SOME
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AND UPPER LOW.
THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SUNDAY...KEEPING
THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. BUT THE
RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
PERHAPS ABOUT A 12HR TO 18HR WINDOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WHERE THERE WILL NOT BE A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS A
WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW
QUICKLY RETURNS BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER SLOW MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SURFACE LOW
REFLECTION ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY. WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES RIDING OVER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG WITH SOME
JET STREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME ENHANCING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...EXPECT
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS
AND NOSE NORTH FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
THIS WOULD PRODUCE A WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN. UNTIL
THEN...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE SHORT TERM WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ON A DAILY BASIS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION FOR THE AFTERNOON MAINLY INCLUDE
POSSIBLE AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VIS DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM KISN-KMOT-KJMS...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL. WILL LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS
AT KISN THROUGH 21 UTC. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT NORTH
AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AFFECTING
KBIS...KMOT...AND KJMS. MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS AT KMOT-KJMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING LOW VFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE DROP SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AND COULD MAKE IT INTO KISN-KMOT DURING THE MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1238 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MOST OF THE CWA IS BETWEEN ROUNDS OF PRECIP AT THE CURRENT TIME
BUT A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ND WILL MOVE INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SO FAR MUCAPE HAS
ONLY BEEN AROUND 500 J/KG IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...AND EVEN
LESS SFC BASED INSTABILITY. SO THINK WE WILL NOT SEE TOO MUCH
SEVERE UNLESS THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CLEARING IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. UPDATED POPS TO LOWER THEM IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND
THEN INCREASE THEM AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WITH PWAT
VALUES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IT SEEMS HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT AT LEAST WEST OF THE RED RIVER WE ARE SEEING A BIT
OF BREAK IN THE RAIN. RAP AND HRRR START BRINGING SOME PRECIP INTO
THE WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOWERED POPS THIS MORNING AND
RAMPED THEM BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING...BUT THINK THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS
PRECIP MOVES BACK IN FROM THE WEST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE AREA FOR ANY DESTABILIZATION BUT WILL JUST MONITOR FOR NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE BEMIDJI AREA SHORTLY...AND THEN EXPECT A
BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY. ADJUSTED POPS/WX ACCORDINGLY. KEPT
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY UNTIL AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS HAVE BEEN
GUSTING IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING
SHOWERS...AND INCREASED WIND GUSTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY INCREASES
TODAY FOR ISOLD SEVERE POTENTIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAIN (2+ INCHES)
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE VALLEY. THUNDER/SHOWER CHANCES
WILL BE THE OTHER CHALLENGE. 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
(ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS A TAD DIFFERENT)...AND WILL USE A
ECMWF/GEM/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THE CURRENT (08Z) AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA HAS OUTRAN
THE INSTABILITY...AND WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS JUST AN AREA OF SHOWERS. BEYOND THAT...NOT QUITE SURE HOW
TODAY IS GOING TO UNFOLD. THE REGION REMAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND THE SFC INVERTED TROUGH (ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY
AXIS) IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...LOCATED FROM THE SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND BY
00Z THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...MODERATE SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW
REMAINS EAST OF THE VALLEY. THIS ALL MEANS THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY GIVEN TIME. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...WITH AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FA. THUS...THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG AND ISOLD
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BRIEF WEAK TORNADOES MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY.
ON SUNDAY...THE SFC LOW STRENGTHENS AND PROPAGATES NORTHWARD
THROUGH MINNESOTA. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL
COINCIDE WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE SHOWERS. MOST GUIDANCE PLACES THIS POTENTIAL JUST EAST OF
THE VALLEY...AND SUGGESTS 1-2 INCHES WITH ISOLD AMOUNTS OF 2-4
INCHES. THIS AREA RECEIVED THE MOST RAINFALL FROM THE LAST
SYSTEM...WHERE THERE WAS SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. GIVEN
WHAT OCCURRED WITH THIS PAST EVENT...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESF). CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH (NOT SURE
IF THE 2+ INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FLOOD WATCH).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS A RESULT OF ENERGETIC FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE THERE IS
CHANCE POPS IN EVERY PERIOD. MODEL INCONSISTENCY WITH EVOLUTION OF
NORTHERN ROCKIES 500MB TROUGH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAINS...
CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY AND SO WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC POPS IN THE
FORECAST. A SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
STARTED OUT WITH A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING BUT THEY
HAVE QUICKLY FILLED BACK IN. GETTING SOME MVFR CEILINGS NOW ALONG
AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON. MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE OVER CENTRAL ND AND
THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THRU THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HIT
EASTERN ND WITH THE MOST RAIN AROUND 00Z SUN THEN SHIFT THIS INTO
NORTHWEST MN BY 06Z SUN. THINK THERE WILL BE A LOT OF LINGERING
CLOUDS AFTER THE RAIN BUT IF WINDS BECOME LIGHT THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME FOG AROUND. ONLY MENTIONED FOG AT KBJI FOR NOW AND LATER SHIFTS
CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS. MOST MODELS HIT KBJI WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN (POSSIBLY HEAVY) ON SUNDAY MORNING. NOT AS MUCH
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING THIS SECOND ROUND OR HOW FAR WEST IT MAY BE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1153 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
QUICK UPDATE AGAIN FOR POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND LATEST 15
UTC HRRR WHICH LIFTS CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH AND EAST TODAY. THEN POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE STATE. ALSO LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MOST AREAS WITH EXPECTED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST TODAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE WEST OF THE LOW WILL
INHIBIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...STRONG IMPULSE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING TO KEEP SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST. AS YOU MOVE
EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW THE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE
BETTER. BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION.
BEST FORCING THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT BUT WILL NOT
MENTION SEVERE AT THIS TIME. BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
A LITTLE FARTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE
BASED POPS ON CURRENT RADAR AND 13 UTC HRRR WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDER...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING...TO WATFORD CITY...KILLDEER...BEULAH...
BISMARCK AND LINTON AND NAPOLEON BY AROUND MIDDAY...AND CONTINUING
TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY UPDATED
THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS.
THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AHEAD OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADAR
MUCH QUIETER THAN FRIDAY EVENING...STILL SOME ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED S/WV
IMPULSE...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LLJ. ELSEWHERE LIGHT ECHOS SHOWING
UP BUT NOTHING NOTEWORTHY.
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED WAVES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAIN
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH
AXIS WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL REMAINING SOUTH OF THE STATE. THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY OF ND WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS AS IT WILL BE NEAR THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS
ACROSS EASTERN SD.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE WEST INTO CENTRAL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR IS PULLED AROUND THE UPPER LOW BACK EAST
INTO WESTERN ND. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS POSSIBLE FAR WEST LATE...MORE
FAVORABLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A DRY SLOT TO NOSE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER SUNDAY. MARGINAL CAPE/SHEAR VALUES SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION
WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE POSITION AND EVOLUTION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. THE LOW IS
PROGGED TO MEANDER A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
SUGGESTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. CONTINUED TO
FORECAST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY AS A RESULT.
THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS PROG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DRYING/WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION FOR THE AFTERNOON MAINLY INCLUDE
POSSIBLE AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VIS DEVELOPING IN THE WEST WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL. WILL LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF
MVFR CEILINGS AT KISN THROUGH 10 UTC. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY
AFFECTING KBIS...KMOT...AND KJMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE
MVFR CEILINGS AT KJMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
953 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST TODAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE WEST OF THE LOW WILL
INHIBIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...STRONG IMPULSE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING TO KEEP SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST. AS YOU MOVE
EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW THE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE
BETTER. BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION.
BEST FORCING THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT BUT WILL NOT
MENTION SEVERE AT THIS TIME. BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
A LITTLE FARTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE
BASED POPS ON CURRENT RADAR AND 13 UTC HRRR WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDER...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING...TO WATFORD CITY...KILLDEER...BEULAH...
BISMARCK AND LINTON AND NAPOLEON BY AROUND MIDDAY...AND CONTINUING
TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY UPDATED
THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS.
THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AHEAD OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADAR
MUCH QUIETER THAN FRIDAY EVENING...STILL SOME ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED S/WV
IMPULSE...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LLJ. ELSEWHERE LIGHT ECHOS SHOWING
UP BUT NOTHING NOTEWORTHY.
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED WAVES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAIN
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH
AXIS WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL REMAINING SOUTH OF THE STATE. THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY OF ND WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS AS IT WILL BE NEAR THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS
ACROSS EASTERN SD.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE WEST INTO CENTRAL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR IS PULLED AROUND THE UPPER LOW BACK EAST
INTO WESTERN ND. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS POSSIBLE FAR WEST LATE...MORE
FAVORABLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A DRY SLOT TO NOSE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER SUNDAY. MARGINAL CAPE/SHEAR VALUES SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION
WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE POSITION AND EVOLUTION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. THE LOW IS
PROGGED TO MEANDER A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
SUGGESTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. CONTINUED TO
FORECAST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY AS A RESULT.
THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS PROG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DRYING/WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION FOR THE MORNING MAINLY INCLUDE POSSIBLE
AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VIS DEVELOPING AS SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR.
ADDED A MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KDIK AND KISN THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AND
DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE TONIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
937 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT AT LEAST WEST OF THE RED RIVER WE ARE SEEING A BIT
OF BREAK IN THE RAIN. RAP AND HRRR START BRINGING SOME PRECIP INTO
THE WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOWERED POPS THIS MORNING AND
RAMPED THEM BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING...BUT THINK THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS
PRECIP MOVES BACK IN FROM THE WEST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE AREA FOR ANY DESTABILIZATION BUT WILL JUST MONITOR FOR NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE BEMIDJI AREA SHORTLY...AND THEN EXPECT A
BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY. ADJUSTED POPS/WX ACCORDINGLY. KEPT
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY UNTIL AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS HAVE BEEN
GUSTING IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING
SHOWERS...AND INCREASED WIND GUSTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY INCREASES
TODAY FOR ISOLD SEVERE POTENTIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAIN (2+ INCHES)
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE VALLEY. THUNDER/SHOWER CHANCES
WILL BE THE OTHER CHALLENGE. 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
(ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS A TAD DIFFERENT)...AND WILL USE A
ECMWF/GEM/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THE CURRENT (08Z) AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA HAS OUTRAN
THE INSTABILITY...AND WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS JUST AN AREA OF SHOWERS. BEYOND THAT...NOT QUITE SURE HOW
TODAY IS GOING TO UNFOLD. THE REGION REMAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND THE SFC INVERTED TROUGH (ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY
AXIS) IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...LOCATED FROM THE SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND BY
00Z THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...MODERATE SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW
REMAINS EAST OF THE VALLEY. THIS ALL MEANS THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY GIVEN TIME. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...WITH AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FA. THUS...THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG AND ISOLD
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BRIEF WEAK TORNADOES MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY.
ON SUNDAY...THE SFC LOW STRENGTHENS AND PROPAGATES NORTHWARD
THROUGH MINNESOTA. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL
COINCIDE WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE SHOWERS. MOST GUIDANCE PLACES THIS POTENTIAL JUST EAST OF
THE VALLEY...AND SUGGESTS 1-2 INCHES WITH ISOLD AMOUNTS OF 2-4
INCHES. THIS AREA RECEIVED THE MOST RAINFALL FROM THE LAST
SYSTEM...WHERE THERE WAS SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. GIVEN
WHAT OCCURRED WITH THIS PAST EVENT...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESF). CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH (NOT SURE
IF THE 2+ INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FLOOD WATCH).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS A RESULT OF ENERGETIC FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE THERE IS
CHANCE POPS IN EVERY PERIOD. MODEL INCONSISTENCY WITH EVOLUTION OF
NORTHERN ROCKIES 500MB TROUGH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAINS...
CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY AND SO WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC POPS IN THE
FORECAST. A SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE KBJI AREA SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. ANTICIPATE A
BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SHOWER
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT SURE ABOUT
THUNDER COVERAGE AND KEPT WX MENTION AS SHOWERS FOR NOW. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL BE CIGS...AND HOW MUCH THEY WILL LOWER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL INTO AT LEAST
MVFR RANGE...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW WITH EXACTLY WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR.
THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO FAST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
204 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MOVING OUT OF THE
CWA...AND HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS AND REMOVED SEVERE WORDING.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR WITH A RATHER
MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER CENTRAL ND IN PROXIMITY TO A LINGERING SFC TROUGH. FOR NOW
LEFT OUT TO SEE HOW SKY COVER TRENDS. WILL RELOOK FOR THE 3-4AM
FORECAST PACKAGE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE POPS AND ADD/MAINTAIN SEVERE WORDING
WEST AND CENTRAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
TRIMMED POPS BACK A BIT NORTHWEST WHERE SHORT RANGE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION EARLY
THIS EVENING. THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EARLY THIS EVENING
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND CONVECTION
CHANCES. ALSO STRONG WINDS WITH CURRENT WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT.
REGARDING WIND ADVISORY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT ADVISORY. WESTERN
COUNTIES DROP OFF AT 4PM. SOUTH CENTRAL WILL REMAIN IN THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM.
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SO WILL UTILIZE A
BROAD BRUSHED APPROACH IN GENERAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT HIGHLIGHTING THE BETTER POTENTIAL IN THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL...IN ADDITION TO
THE ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LATEST HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
ONGOING CONVECTION AND ITS LATEST OUTPUT LOOKS REASONABLE WITH TWO
AREAS OF CONVECTION...ONE TRACKING FROM EAST CENTRAL MONTANA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER AREA OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...ALONG THE ND/SD/BORDER.
CURRENTLY...ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE OVER EASTERN
MONTANA NEAR THE LOCATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH. MU-CAPES ARE
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG OVER THE MONDAY REGION...WITH INCREASING LOW
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CAPPED ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BUT NOT FAR INTO MONTANA...THE 18Z RUN OF THE RAP SHOWS THE
CAP BREAKING AROUND 21-22 UTC. CAP THEN BECOMES NEGLIGIBLE OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...OPENING THE DOOR TO POSSIBLE CONVECTION.
THE BEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR LOOKS TO BE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAX
INSOLATION AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH STRONG CAPES THIS
AREA IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. THUS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WITH SUCH STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND INCREASING HAIL CAPES...THE MAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE FARTHER WEST IN MONTANA/WYOMING MAY
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS WHICH MAY TRACK ALONG THE NORTH
DAKOTA SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES WILL RESIDE OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AND INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL WANE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z SUNDAY.
JET SUPPORT WEAKENS AS WELL ALLOWING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO END
OVERNIGHT. WILL THEN AWAIT FOR THE MAIN UPPER LOW/COLD POCKET IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
TO NOSE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE
BEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR. HENCE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY SHOWER
MENTION WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSHOWERS EXTENDING FROM NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH FROM THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY NIGHT...MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS DEVELOP LEADING TO A DRY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS 500MB PATTERN
FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND HAS NOW SHIFTED AWAY FROM A DEVELOPING RIDGE
AND IS IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM FROM PREVIOUS/CURRENT RUNS. THUS
CONFIDENCE GROWING WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DAILY AND INCREASING THROUGH FRIDAY. A PERSISTENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW UNFOLDS
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
HAZARDS TO AVIATION FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING
MAINLY INCLUDE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS DEVELOPING AS SKIES
PARTIALLY CLEAR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORED NEAR A SFC TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
632 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WITH CLOUD IN 4-6K RANGE AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD ABOVE. RISK THUNDER LATE IN TAF PERIOD
AFTER 06Z AT SITES KBVO/KTUL/KRVS COVERED WITH PROB30.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE HUMIDITY WILL BE BACK TODAY AFTER A BRIEF HIATUS YESTERDAY.
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DRAW MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
TODAY...AND THE HRRR EVEN SHOWS SOME ISOLD TSTORM POTENTIAL OVER
FAR SE OK THIS AFTERNOON SO SOME SMALL POPS WERE INSERTED DOWN
THERE. PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. STORMS WILL FORM AND
CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER KS...BUT SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE FAR NORTHERN OK AS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. SOME AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ON ITS TAIL END OVER THE
OZARKS DOWN INTO NE OK. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE AS THE BEST FLOW REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...HOWEVER
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BRING SOME SEVERE HAIL/WIND
POTENTIAL REGARDLESS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT STORMS REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE KS/MO BORDERS SUNDAY NIGHT.
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND WARMING MID LVL TEMPS WILL KEEP THINGS
DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE EURO AND CANADIAN STILL BRING AN UPPER
SYSTEM IN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY...WHILE ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK TO
BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR STORMS.
LACY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 88 73 88 72 / 10 30 30 30
FSM 87 71 90 71 / 10 10 20 10
MLC 86 72 89 73 / 10 10 10 10
BVO 89 71 87 70 / 10 40 40 50
FYV 83 66 86 67 / 10 10 30 20
BYV 83 66 86 67 / 10 10 30 30
MKO 86 70 88 70 / 10 20 30 20
MIO 86 70 86 70 / 10 40 40 50
F10 87 71 88 71 / 10 20 20 20
HHW 88 70 89 71 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
347 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE HUMIDITY WILL BE BACK TODAY AFTER A BRIEF HIATUS YESTERDAY.
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DRAW MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
TODAY...AND THE HRRR EVEN SHOWS SOME ISOLD TSTORM POTENTIAL OVER
FAR SE OK THIS AFTERNOON SO SOME SMALL POPS WERE INSERTED DOWN
THERE. PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. STORMS WILL FORM AND
CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER KS...BUT SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE FAR NORTHERN OK AS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. SOME AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ON ITS TAIL END OVER THE
OZARKS DOWN INTO NE OK. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE AS THE BEST FLOW REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...HOWEVER
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BRING SOME SEVERE HAIL/WIND
POTENTIAL REGARDLESS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT STORMS REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE KS/MO BORDERS SUNDAY NIGHT.
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND WARMING MID LVL TEMPS WILL KEEP THINGS
DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE EURO AND CANADIAN STILL BRING AN UPPER
SYSTEM IN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY...WHILE ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK TO
BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR STORMS.
LACY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 88 73 88 72 / 10 30 30 40
FSM 87 71 90 71 / 10 10 20 10
MLC 86 72 89 73 / 10 10 10 10
BVO 89 71 87 70 / 10 40 40 50
FYV 83 66 86 67 / 10 10 30 20
BYV 83 66 86 67 / 10 10 30 30
MKO 86 70 88 70 / 10 20 30 20
MIO 86 70 86 70 / 10 40 40 50
F10 87 71 88 71 / 10 20 20 20
HHW 88 70 89 71 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1126 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
OVER SOUTH CENTRL SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS INDICATE A 60-70KT LOW
LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THAT AREA SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS THERE BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SHIFTING EAST WITH WINDS HOLDING OR
SLIGHTLY DECREASING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1500 MDT.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. FIRST SHORT WAVE TROF HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE AREA CARRYING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH IT.
SECOND...SOMEWHAT STRONGER TROF IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS AFTN AND HELPING TO DIMINISH THE
STABILITY. A THIRD TROF WILL APPROACH TOMORROW GIVING CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FCST TO DVLP OVR SW SD IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL DVLPMNTS...AND THEN MOVE EAST WARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM SE MT ACROSS WRN SD...REPRESENTING A
WEAK WARM FRONT. THIS ZONE IS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONGER SFC TO 1 KM
SHEAR THAT COULD ENHANCE LOW LVL ROTATION IN SOME STORMS.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ADEQUATE CAPE AND SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR FOR
SVR STORMS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. INVERTED V PROG SOUNDINGS
AND CONSISTENT MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL SUGGEST QUITE
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL FOR THE DVLPG CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND THIS
EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL HAS INITIATED CONVECTION AT ABOUT THE
RIGHT TIME AND HAS CONSISTENTLY INTENSIFIED THE STORMS QUICKLY
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN OVR OUR WYOMING COUNTIES AND MOVED THE
STORMS QUICKLY E WARD INTO WRN SD. IN SPITE OF POTENTIAL FOR LOW
LVL ROTATION IN STORMS...THE LCLS ARE HIGH...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
TEMPERATURES WERE HELD CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO POTENTIALLY WET GROUND. SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOULD SEE DRYING OVER THE AREA AND AN END TO PRECIP. KEPT SOME
POPS IN FOR SATURDAY DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE APPROACH OF WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROF.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY
ON SUNDAY. WILL BE BREEZY/WINDY AS A RESULT FROM TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...AS GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF. THIS FEATURES UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DAILY
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SLOWER MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN
WARMER DAYS EARLY IN THE WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THE LAST HALF OF
THE WEEK IN MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...PATTERN STILL FAVORS
DAILY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...BARBER
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
854 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.UPDATE...
SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
FORMED BETWEEN ANDREWS...SWEETWATER AND OZONA ARE SPREADING EAST
INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE WINDOW HAS CLOSED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO REMOVE
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS EVENINGS FORECAST
AND TO ADJUST THE HOURLY GRIDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
58
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 705 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014/
MVFR CEILINGS...WITH CEILINGS AROUND 1600 FEET...WILL SPREAD
NORTH IN THE WACO AROUND 08Z AND INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 08Z.
THE CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING /15-17Z/. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED 17Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014/
AN 18Z AIRCRAFT SOUNDING FROM DALLAS LOVE FIELD OBSERVED A
SUBSTANTIAL CAP IN PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS...DESPITE TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S WITH DEW POINTS HOVERING AROUND 70 DEGREES.
OBSERVED SURFACE BASED CAPE WAS JUST OVER 1000 J/KG ON THIS RAOB
AND THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WAS AROUND 150 J/KG. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH VERY LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT. LOOPING THROUGH THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SUBTLE WAVES WERE EVIDENT IN THIS STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD...INDICATIVE OF A STABLE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE CLOUD LEVEL
(LCL). TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT...THINK THAT OBSERVATIONAL
EVIDENCE IS POINTING TO THE DALLAS LOVE FIELD SOUNDING BEING
FAIRLY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AN EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGEST NO
SIGNIFICANT MECHANISMS IN THE CWA TO PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT.
AS A RESULT...THINK THAT THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON ARE VERY SMALL.
19Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED CUMULUS
FIELD DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...IN AN AXIS OF GREATER
INSTABILITY PER LOCALLY CALCULATED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AND SPC`S
SFCOA. WHILE THERE WAS LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED IN
THIS CU FIELD AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION...THE CONGESTED AND
LINEAR APPEARANCE OF THE CLOUDS SUGGESTS A LOCAL DEEPENING OF THE
LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE LINE
LOCATED FROM VERNON SOUTH TO JUST EAST OF SWEETWATER. THE 17Z
HRRR MODEL REALLY PICKS UP ON THIS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE AND
INITIATES POCKETS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS LINE BY 22Z...OR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS PANS OUT...STORMS WILL INITIATE
TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER WINDS ALOFT WOULD TEND TO STEER
THESE STORMS EAST. WINDS ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE FAIRLY
WEAK...SO ANY EASTWARD STORM MOTION WOULD TEND TO BE SLOW...ON THE
ORDER OF 15 MPH OR SO.
EVEN IF STORMS DEVELOP AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS...THERE IS NO
GUARANTEE THAT THEY WILL ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO MOVE EAST INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING. STORM MOTION IS DEPENDENT NOT JUST UPON
STEERING WINDS ALOFT...BUT IS ALSO DEPENDENT UPON THE DIRECTION
THAT NEW UPDRAFTS TEND TO DEVELOP ON. THIS IS REFERRED TO AS
UPDRAFT PROPAGATION...OR SIMPLY PROPAGATION. THE DIRECTION OF NEW
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT IS USUALLY LOCATED ON THE SIDE OF THE STORM
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS POINTING TOWARDS. THAT IS...IF
YOU HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...NEW UPDRAFTS
WILL TEND TO BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN EXISTING STORM. THE LATEST
SPC SFCOA INDICATED 850 MB WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 15
KTS...WHICH SHOULD DIRECT NEW UPDRAFTS...AND THE PROPAGATION OF
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...TO THE SOUTH.
WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS JUST ABOUT EQUAL TO THE
PROJECTED STORM MOTION FROM STEERING WINDS ALONE...STORMS WILL
TEND TO BUILD SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST INSTEAD OF DRIFTING EAST WITH THE
STEERING WINDS ALOFT. BECAUSE OF THIS...THINK THAT THE CHANCES OF
MULTIPLE STORMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING ARE
SMALL. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO MEANDERING OVER
LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE TO MINERAL WELLS TO
GOLDTHWAITE THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STORMS WILL KEEP RUNNING
INTO THE CAP IN PLACE OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IF THEY MOVE
EAST...SO THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE IF THEY EVER
MANAGE TO MOVE OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST. STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE THE ONLY EXPECTED HAZARDS
FROM STORMS THIS EVENING.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...EXTENDING OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY
TOMORROW MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...LEAVING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WHILE NOT OVERLY
STRONG...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT LARGE SCALE FEATURE
OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE CWA. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
SEND THE GULF COAST SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SUNSET. LEFT LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE AN UPPER LOW MOVING
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO OUT OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE NAM IS ON BOARD WITH THIS SOLUTION WITH
THE CANADIAN AND GFS HARDLY SHOWING ANY DISTURBANCE ALOFT AT ALL.
CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION AT THIS TIME AS THIS
HAS BEEN THE CONSISTENT SOLUTION FOR THE PAST 3-4 DAYS WHILE THE
GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE BEEN WAFFLING ON THE EXISTENCE OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CONSISTENCY DOES NOT EQUAL ACCURACY...BUT WHEN
DEALING WITH FORECAST MODELS AND DIFFERENCES IN DATA ASSIMILATION
AND MODEL INITIALIZATION...CONSISTENCY IS OFTEN A GOOD SIGN THAT A
MODEL HAS LOCKED ONTO SOMETHING OTHER MODELS ARE MISSING.
DID NOT RAISE POPS ABOVE 20 PERCENT AT THIS TIME AS IT WOULD BE
NICE TO SEE OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW BEFORE
FINALIZING ON ONE SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER. THE ECMWF HAS AN
OBVIOUS TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY MORNING...SO WE
SHOULD KNOW ONE WAY OR THE OTHER BY THEN HOW THIS IS GOING TO PLAY
OUT. AT ANY RATE...ASSUMING THIS UPPER LOW MOVES OVER NORTH
TEXAS...CONTINUE TO EXPECT ONLY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AS PARAMETERS
ARE POOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. KEPT HIGHS ON THE LOWER
SPECTRUM OF GUIDANCE EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS KICKING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS ACTION MAY SEND A
SQUALL LINE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO SEND A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER SQUALL LINE THAT MAY
MAKE A DIVE TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LEFT SOME LOW POPS IN OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THESE PERIODS AS A RESULT.
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SQUALL LINE
BEHAVIOR UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEXT WEEKEND...MOST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT WE WILL BE
BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NEXT WEEKEND...SO
KEPT A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS HINTING AT A
WEAK...PROBABLY CONVECTIVELY GENERATED...MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM GETTING STUCK IN THE RIDGE ALOFT AND DRIFTING AROUND OVER
NORTH TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND BRINGS A WEAK
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS BEFORE MOVING
IT NORTHEAST OVER EAST TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN EITHER
OF THESE VERY SMALL SCALE FEATURES 6-7 DAYS OUT IS LOW. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...SO DECIDED TO STICK WITH THIS DRY FORECAST AND SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME. WILL HOLD OFF ON JUMPING ON SMALL PROBABILITY
ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS UNLESS MODELS CONVERGE AND AGREE ON ONE OF
THEM IN PARTICULAR IN LATER FORECASTS.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 76 92 76 90 76 / 5 0 0 10 10
WACO, TX 75 90 74 89 74 / 5 5 0 10 10
PARIS, TX 74 88 73 88 73 / 5 0 0 5 10
DENTON, TX 75 90 74 90 75 / 5 0 0 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 75 90 76 90 75 / 5 0 0 5 10
DALLAS, TX 75 90 75 90 76 / 5 0 0 10 10
TERRELL, TX 77 92 78 91 76 / 5 0 0 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 75 88 75 88 75 / 5 5 0 20 10
TEMPLE, TX 75 89 75 89 75 / 5 5 0 20 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 73 91 72 90 73 / 10 0 0 5 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
705 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS...WITH CEILINGS AROUND 1600 FEET...WILL SPREAD
NORTH IN THE WACO AROUND 08Z AND INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 08Z.
THE CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING /15-17Z/. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED 17Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014/
AN 18Z AIRCRAFT SOUNDING FROM DALLAS LOVE FIELD OBSERVED A
SUBSTANTIAL CAP IN PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS...DESPITE TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S WITH DEW POINTS HOVERING AROUND 70 DEGREES.
OBSERVED SURFACE BASED CAPE WAS JUST OVER 1000 J/KG ON THIS RAOB
AND THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WAS AROUND 150 J/KG. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH VERY LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT. LOOPING THROUGH THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SUBTLE WAVES WERE EVIDENT IN THIS STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD...INDICATIVE OF A STABLE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE CLOUD LEVEL
(LCL). TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT...THINK THAT OBSERVATIONAL
EVIDENCE IS POINTING TO THE DALLAS LOVE FIELD SOUNDING BEING
FAIRLY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AN EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGEST NO
SIGNIFICANT MECHANISMS IN THE CWA TO PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT.
AS A RESULT...THINK THAT THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON ARE VERY SMALL.
19Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED CUMULUS
FIELD DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...IN AN AXIS OF GREATER
INSTABILITY PER LOCALLY CALCULATED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AND SPC`S
SFCOA. WHILE THERE WAS LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED IN
THIS CU FIELD AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION...THE CONGESTED AND
LINEAR APPEARANCE OF THE CLOUDS SUGGESTS A LOCAL DEEPENING OF THE
LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE LINE
LOCATED FROM VERNON SOUTH TO JUST EAST OF SWEETWATER. THE 17Z
HRRR MODEL REALLY PICKS UP ON THIS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE AND
INITIATES POCKETS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS LINE BY 22Z...OR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS PANS OUT...STORMS WILL INITIATE
TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER WINDS ALOFT WOULD TEND TO STEER
THESE STORMS EAST. WINDS ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE FAIRLY
WEAK...SO ANY EASTWARD STORM MOTION WOULD TEND TO BE SLOW...ON THE
ORDER OF 15 MPH OR SO.
EVEN IF STORMS DEVELOP AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS...THERE IS NO
GUARANTEE THAT THEY WILL ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO MOVE EAST INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING. STORM MOTION IS DEPENDENT NOT JUST UPON
STEERING WINDS ALOFT...BUT IS ALSO DEPENDENT UPON THE DIRECTION
THAT NEW UPDRAFTS TEND TO DEVELOP ON. THIS IS REFERRED TO AS
UPDRAFT PROPAGATION...OR SIMPLY PROPAGATION. THE DIRECTION OF NEW
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT IS USUALLY LOCATED ON THE SIDE OF THE STORM
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS POINTING TOWARDS. THAT IS...IF
YOU HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...NEW UPDRAFTS
WILL TEND TO BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN EXISTING STORM. THE LATEST
SPC SFCOA INDICATED 850 MB WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 15
KTS...WHICH SHOULD DIRECT NEW UPDRAFTS...AND THE PROPAGATION OF
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...TO THE SOUTH.
WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS JUST ABOUT EQUAL TO THE
PROJECTED STORM MOTION FROM STEERING WINDS ALONE...STORMS WILL
TEND TO BUILD SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST INSTEAD OF DRIFTING EAST WITH THE
STEERING WINDS ALOFT. BECAUSE OF THIS...THINK THAT THE CHANCES OF
MULTIPLE STORMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING ARE
SMALL. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO MEANDERING OVER
LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE TO MINERAL WELLS TO
GOLDTHWAITE THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STORMS WILL KEEP RUNNING
INTO THE CAP IN PLACE OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IF THEY MOVE
EAST...SO THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE IF THEY EVER
MANAGE TO MOVE OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST. STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE THE ONLY EXPECTED HAZARDS
FROM STORMS THIS EVENING.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...EXTENDING OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY
TOMORROW MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...LEAVING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WHILE NOT OVERLY
STRONG...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT LARGE SCALE FEATURE
OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE CWA. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
SEND THE GULF COAST SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SUNSET. LEFT LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE AN UPPER LOW MOVING
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO OUT OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE NAM IS ON BOARD WITH THIS SOLUTION WITH
THE CANADIAN AND GFS HARDLY SHOWING ANY DISTURBANCE ALOFT AT ALL.
CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION AT THIS TIME AS THIS
HAS BEEN THE CONSISTENT SOLUTION FOR THE PAST 3-4 DAYS WHILE THE
GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE BEEN WAFFLING ON THE EXISTENCE OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CONSISTENCY DOES NOT EQUAL ACCURACY...BUT WHEN
DEALING WITH FORECAST MODELS AND DIFFERENCES IN DATA ASSIMILATION
AND MODEL INITIALIZATION...CONSISTENCY IS OFTEN A GOOD SIGN THAT A
MODEL HAS LOCKED ONTO SOMETHING OTHER MODELS ARE MISSING.
DID NOT RAISE POPS ABOVE 20 PERCENT AT THIS TIME AS IT WOULD BE
NICE TO SEE OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW BEFORE
FINALIZING ON ONE SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER. THE ECMWF HAS AN
OBVIOUS TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY MORNING...SO WE
SHOULD KNOW ONE WAY OR THE OTHER BY THEN HOW THIS IS GOING TO PLAY
OUT. AT ANY RATE...ASSUMING THIS UPPER LOW MOVES OVER NORTH
TEXAS...CONTINUE TO EXPECT ONLY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AS PARAMETERS
ARE POOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. KEPT HIGHS ON THE LOWER
SPECTRUM OF GUIDANCE EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS KICKING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS ACTION MAY SEND A
SQUALL LINE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO SEND A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER SQUALL LINE THAT MAY
MAKE A DIVE TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LEFT SOME LOW POPS IN OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THESE PERIODS AS A RESULT.
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SQUALL LINE
BEHAVIOR UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEXT WEEKEND...MOST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT WE WILL BE
BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NEXT WEEKEND...SO
KEPT A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS HINTING AT A
WEAK...PROBABLY CONVECTIVELY GENERATED...MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM GETTING STUCK IN THE RIDGE ALOFT AND DRIFTING AROUND OVER
NORTH TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND BRINGS A WEAK
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS BEFORE MOVING
IT NORTHEAST OVER EAST TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN EITHER
OF THESE VERY SMALL SCALE FEATURES 6-7 DAYS OUT IS LOW. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...SO DECIDED TO STICK WITH THIS DRY FORECAST AND SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME. WILL HOLD OFF ON JUMPING ON SMALL PROBABILITY
ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS UNLESS MODELS CONVERGE AND AGREE ON ONE OF
THEM IN PARTICULAR IN LATER FORECASTS.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 76 92 76 90 76 / 5 0 0 10 10
WACO, TX 75 90 74 89 74 / 5 5 0 10 10
PARIS, TX 74 88 73 88 73 / 5 0 0 5 10
DENTON, TX 75 90 74 90 75 / 5 0 0 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 75 90 76 90 75 / 5 0 0 5 10
DALLAS, TX 75 90 75 90 76 / 5 0 0 10 10
TERRELL, TX 77 92 78 91 76 / 5 0 0 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 75 88 75 88 75 / 5 5 0 20 10
TEMPLE, TX 75 89 75 89 75 / 5 5 0 20 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 73 91 72 90 73 / 10 0 0 5 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/91
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
857 PM PDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA
AS IT DIGS SOUTH ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON TONIGHT. THE TROUGH
WILL FORM AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON MONDAY.
THIS LOW WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY TRIGGER A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF SALEM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WAN UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
WITH SLIGHT WARMING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR PICTURES APPEAR TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE WA AND N OREGON COAST FROM THE NW THIS EVENING...
APPARENTLY DRIVING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR INCREASING
OVER THE COASTAL AREA. MOST OF THE OTHER SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR WERE
OVER THE N OREGON AND S WA CASCADES. IN LINE WITH CURRENT TRENDS...
AS AIR MASS STABILIZES SOME OVERNIGHT EXPECT TO SEE A DECREASE IN
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE GOING MOST PLACES
OVERNIGHT ESP IN THE N PART OF THE AREA.
REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND FORM A CUT OFF LOW
OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF MOISTURE OVER THE NE PACIFIC
EXTENDING FROM WEST OF THE GULF OF ALASKA TO JUST OFF OF THE OREGON
COAST. SATELLITE ESTIMATES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND AN INCH
WITH THIS BAND. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BECOME ENTRAINED AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AS COLDER AIR ALOFT SWINGS OVER WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN
OREGON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE NORTHERN
INLAND AREAS STILL LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL DIP DOWN TO NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND CONTINUE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MARINE CLOUDS
AND LINGERING STRATO-CU COVERING THE SKIES. HARTLEY
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA...AND THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST
IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM THAT
WAS EXPECTD FOR THURSDAY...AND THINK MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE SANDWICHED
BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NE PACIFIC AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HARTLEY &&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
MOST OF TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS EVENING AND EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTH
ALONG THE WASHINGTON COAST MONDAY AND INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
LIKELY BRING SOME AREAS OF MFR CIGS THE COAST AND VALLEYS. COOL
AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BREAK UP THE
CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT AND ALLOW CONVECTION TO MUCH HIGHER LEVELS
AFT ON. THIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE INTERIOR FROM KCVO NORTHWARD AFTER 21Z. THERE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS FROM 21Z
TO 06Z.
KPDX AND APPROACHES... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT THERE
IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS FROM 10Z-17Z. 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM 21Z-03Z AND THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS
IN SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME. SCHNEIDER
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 FT TONIGHT...AND WILL STAY
WELL BELOW 10 FT THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW MODERATE W-NW SWELLS
PASSING THROUGH THE WATERS. VARYING DEGREES OF WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS...EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
STRONG TIDAL FLUCTUATIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
RESULTING IN STRONG FLOOD AND EBB CURRENTS. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS
ON THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR WILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THE MORNING EBBS
AGAIN ON MON AND TUE MORNINGS. ALSO OF NOTE ARE THE SIGNIFICANT MINUS
TIDES EXPECTED AFTER THE EBBS. PYLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 6 AM TO
10 AM PDT MONDAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
445 PM PDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will impact the region
every afternoon and evening through Wednesday with temperatures
remaining on the cool side. Temperatures will then warm for the
rest of the week, with just a few mountain showers late in the
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday...Cool and showery weather will prevail
across the region as an upper trough of low pressure moves inland
tonight and slowly drifts across the forecast area. Over the next
48 hours there will be a good chance of showers for the entire
forecast area as the low closes off over central WA and eventually
meanders to the southeast. The most favored areas for showers will
be across the northern mountains but as the low closes off, models
are showing deformation bands in numerous locations across the
Inland Northwest. Considering the slow movement of the system and
the multitude of vorticity bundles circling the low, bands of
showers could develop just about anywhere across the forecast
area. The more likely area for development will be across the
northeast zones and also the upper basin into the west plains.
There will also be a chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon
and evening hours, mainly for the rising terrain north and east of
the basin with a better chance on Monday when the cold pool aloft
will be directly over the forecast area. Any thunderstorms that
develop will be slow-movers with the potential for heavy rain.
Breezy conditions will prevail for the next 2 days mainly for
locations south of Highway 2 from Wenatchee to Pullman, and north
into the West Plains and Spokane area. Expect sustained winds of
10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Clouds and precipitation will
keep daytime temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than normal
Monday. For Tuesday there will be some warming for the western
zones while southeast WA and the Idaho zones will remain cool.
/Kelch
Tuesday night through Thursday night: An upper low
gradually shifts east and the Inland NW begins to dry out after
Wednesday. Temperatures are projected to warm from 3 to 6 degrees
below normal Wednesday to 3 to 6 degrees above normal Thursday,
with the milder southwest flow arriving.
From Tuesday night to Wednesday night the upper low moves from
south ID toward the High Plains. How quickly it exits and whether
is moves north-northeast or directly east is not agreed upon. This
has a couple implications. First moisture wraps around the low
into a deformation axis, providing a moderate threat of rain for
the eastern third of WA and north ID Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. The precise location of that deformation axis is not
agreed upon. A second implication of pace and track of the upper
low is related to the disturbances embedded in the flow around it.
These could act to enhance precipitation. Slower solutions bring
at least one disturbance around the back of the low and enhance
precipitation amounts. Quicker solutions keep these enhancements
further east. The forecast will continue to be fine-tuned as
models come into better agreement. Either way look for cloudy/damp
condition Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across the eastern
third of WA and north ID. A fair amount of cloud cover is also
expected at this time as far west as the central Columbia Basin.
On Wednesday the deformation axis begins to shift east and
weaken, while the low continues to pull east and a weak ridge
starts to build in from the west. Showers will remain a moderate
threat about the north and central Panhandle within the
deformation axis, but the threat across the eastern third of WA
and southern Panhandle begins to wane. From Wednesday night to
Thursday night a shortwave ridge quickly shifts across the region
and the next trough approaches the coast. Overall this will lead
to a forecast of drier, milder weather with less cloud cover for
the bulk of the region. A few showers may linger around the
Panhandle mountains Wednesday night. Other shower chances will
come into the Cascades Thursday and Thursday night. /J. Cote`
Friday thru Sunday... Models in good agreement on keeping the main
upper low well to the north and west of the area while bringing
southwest flow and a weak short wave across NW OR and most of WA
by midday Saturday. Differences in model moisture and
precipitation account for uncertainty in the chances for showers.
Kept the POPs low allowing for a few thunderstorms in the
afternoon and evening hours all three days. Temperatures should
remain at or just above average as the ridge gets pushed east of
the area and southwest flow aloft prevails. JL
&&
.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: Low pressure area with small disturbances rotating
through and around it lingers over the aviation area for at
least the next 24 hours if not longer. Small scale models
such as the HRRR have allowed for some timing of these
mesoscale small disturbance passages bringing showers
during the overnight hours with the possibility of generally
weak pulse afternoon and evening thunderstorms. As to be
expected VFR should prevail except under and near more
intense showers and/or thunderstorms where IFR ceilings
and visibility may occur. /Pelatti
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 46 62 44 65 48 71 / 40 30 40 40 40 20
Coeur d`Alene 45 62 42 63 46 69 / 40 40 40 50 50 30
Pullman 42 61 41 60 45 67 / 20 20 30 30 50 20
Lewiston 49 67 48 67 51 75 / 20 20 30 30 30 20
Colville 46 62 43 70 48 73 / 50 60 50 50 30 20
Sandpoint 45 62 41 61 45 67 / 50 50 50 50 60 30
Kellogg 44 59 41 60 45 63 / 50 50 40 60 60 40
Moses Lake 49 68 48 74 52 81 / 20 40 30 10 10 10
Wenatchee 52 67 50 75 55 82 / 10 20 30 10 10 10
Omak 49 66 47 75 51 80 / 30 40 30 20 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
250 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER NW OREGON
TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS. THIS SECOND TROUGH WILL FORM A CUT-OFF LOW OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TRIGGER A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF SALEM MONDAY AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS
FROM THIS LOW ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN
RAIN WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHT WARMING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER NW OREGON EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FEATURE SO FAR HAS BEEN CLOUDY
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH...IF ANY...RAIN
THUS FAR EXCEPT FOR A STATION IN THE WILLAPA HILLS THAT HAS MEASURED
0.02 INCH.
HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT DESPITE THE POOR RAIN-PRODUCING HISTORY...AS THE KLGX
RADAR IS DETECTING WEAK RETURNS OFFSHORE THE OREGON/WASHINGTON
BORDER...AND AFTERNOON HEATING MAY INCREASE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AM SUSPICIOUS THAT THE RETURNS OFFSHORE ARE MID
TO LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA...BUT DO NOT FEEL JUSTIFIED
TO REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY. HAVE REDUCED POPS THOUGH TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE AND CONFINED THE CHANCE NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PACIFIC NW LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...DRAGGING A
WEAK FRONT WITH IT. CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS WITH A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD...AND FORM A CUT OFF LOW OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE A THREAT FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
A COLD POOL WITH MODELED 500MB TEMPS AROUND -22C WILL BRUSH SW
WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING INSTABILITY
OVER THE AREA...AND THE THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. MODELED
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A CAP IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE MARGINAL CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SIMILAR
SET UP AS LAST WEEK IN WHICH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SPROUTED OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF CLARK COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL AND APPROACH PASS ELEVATIONS ON MONDAY...BUT
RECENT WARM WEATHER AND WARM ROAD SURFACES WILL LIKELY LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS
INLAND. HARTLEY
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
FURTHER EAST. SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW MAY GENERATE SHOWERS
ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE A DRY DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S
ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE NE PACIFIC
THURSDAY...SENDING SPOKES OF ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE FIRST SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A
SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL WEAKEN BEFORE IT PUSHES ONSHORE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MAY ENHANCE CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY.
GENERALLY EXPECT CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HARTLEY
&&
.AVIATION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD HAS BROUGHT SOME
PATCHY MVFR CIGS TO THE S WA AND N OR COAST OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THESE SPOTS COULD ALSO SEE A LIGHT SHOWER AT SOME POINT
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR PREVAILS EVERYWHERE ELSE...WITH A 5000 TO 6000
FT CLOUD DECK IN PLACE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOST OF THIS EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY SPREAD
AN MVFR CLOUD DECK INTO THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND...BUT THE
INLAND TAF SITES MAY BE A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS FROM
ROUGHLY 12Z TO 18Z. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ONSHORE TOMORROW.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A WEAK TROUGH MAY
SPREAD PATCHY MVFR CIGS IN BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TOMORROW...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT MOVE THROUGH
TERMINAL TOMORROW. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...SEAS ARE SITTING IN THE 6 TO 7 FT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MAY SUBSIDE ANOTHER FOOT OR SO THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW MODERATE W-NW SWELLS PASSING
THROUGH THE WATERS. VARYING DEGREES OF WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS...EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE FULL MOON IS GENERATING STRONG TIDAL FLUCTUATIONS...
RESULTING IN VERY STRONG FLOOD AND EBB CURRENTS.
THEREFORE...CONDITIONS ON THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR WILL BE HAZARDOUS
DURING THE VERY STRONG MORNING EBBS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALSO OF
NOTE ARE THE SIGNIFICANT MINUS TIDES EXPECTED AFTER THE EBBS ON
THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS. PYLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
249 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will impact the region
every afternoon and evening through Tuesday with temperatures
remaining on the cool side. Temperatures will then warm for the
rest of the week, with just a few mountain showers late in the
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...Convection has begun to expand in
coverage by mid-afternoon...at least over sections of northeast
and north central Washington where there is the most diurnal
heating. Expansive cloud cover over the extreme eastern portions
of Washington and most of the Idaho Panhandle...including the
Spokane area ...Palouse...and Sandpoint has had a much tougher
time generating showers due to limited heating and resultant
destabilization. Looks like most of the activity this evening will
focus around the current batch of showers and isolated thunder and
whether they can successfully migrate southeastward out of this
region of maximum instability/higher terrain and into a region
thats much more stable. The HRRR seems to think so...but its not
handling the expansive clouds and cooler air over the eastern
sections of the forecast area well so think its overstated.
Nonetheless will will keep the mention of showers into the early
evening generally north and east of a line from Omak to
Deary...with the majority of the showers expected to remain near
the Canadian border in NC and NE Washington. The trend for showers
should be a decreasing one as the next shortwave trough digs into
the BC coast with warming temperatures aloft ahead of it. This
should effectively increase the potential instability from the
northwest overnight. Suspect things will really taper off in the
overnight hours...while any clearing will contribute to the
formation of fog across the valleys of northeast Washington and
possibly into north Idaho.
For Sunday...we will see the chance of showers and thunderstorms
increase once again as the BC shortwave trough digs into the NW
corner of Washington and pushes an upper level front through the
region. The front should cross the Inland NW in the morning...with
little fanfare other than an increasing blanket of mid and high
level clouds. Behind the front we will see Lapse rates drop as a
result of daytime heating. This will bring MUCAPE values into the
500-1000 j/kg range. Model soundings show this instability will be
deep enough to support thunderstorms. Based on the location of the
deepest instability and southwest mid-level winds...most of the
thunderstorms will focus near the Canadian border and could impact
locations such as Republic...Colville...and Priest Lake. fx
Sunday night to Tuesday: An upper trough digs into the Pacific
Northwest. This will provide some with additional shower and
thunderstorm chances, relatively cool temperatures and breezy
conditions. Sunday night a cold front pushes east. A mid-level
disturbance comes on its heels and migrates across eastern WA and
north ID. At the same time the center of the upper low moves into
the Cascades overnight. This set-up provides some decent lift
across the region. Surface-based instability wanes through the
evening, but some elevated CAPE and a pocket favorable high level
total totals linger across north-central and northeast WA and
north ID. In tandem with a surface-trough arched from north ID to
central WA, this will provide continuing shower chances through
the night across the Cascade crest, the Okanogan Highlands to
northern Panhandle, as well as across the central and southern
Panhandle. Chances wane in the evening across the Spokane/C`DA
area and Palouse.
By early Monday the upper low is positioned near the east slopes
of the Cascades, before pivoting toward central/southern Panhandle
Monday night. Through this period a surface trough remains arched
from north ID to central WA. With lapse rates steepening and
convective instability increasing through the afternoon
(especially over central and northeast WA and north ID) these
features will provide a threat of showers throughout much of the
region. The lowest threat appears over the Palouse/L-C valley
through lower elevations of the central Panhandle where models
show a relative minimum in moisture/dew point values/instability.
The aforementioned showers will be possible early in the day
across the northern mountains and across the northern Basin
through Waterville Plateau, but the threat will increase here and
across the region in the afternoon and wane in coverage overnight.
There will also be some threat of thunderstorms in the afternoon
and early evening. The primary threat will be across north-central
and northeast WA and the northern Panhandle. Some thunder is also
possible near the Camas Prairie, but at this point the better
instability in this region remains southward toward the
Clearwaters. As for winds, gradients and mixing increases Sunday
night into Monday, starting from the west. This supports some
breezy conditions. Speeds are generally in the 10 to 20 mph range,
with gusts in the 15 to 25 mph range in the early afternoon and
early evening hours. Value abate some for the overnight/early
morning hours.
Going into Tuesday the upper trough axis shifts east and the
Inland Northwest moves to a north-northeast flow. A wrap-around
trough/deformation axis begins to sag in from the north (somewhat
similar to the evolution of the most recent system). As such this
will continue to provide a rain threat across the eastern third of
WA and north ID, while central WA to the Cascades will have
smaller threat. I increased PoPs for this time frame across the
east. There is some convective instability in the afternoon across
northern WA and the ID Panhandle, so I have a slight thunder
chance here too. /J. Cote`
Tuesday night through Saturday...The region will transition to
drier and warmer weather as an upper trough moves into southeast
Idaho. A shortwave ridge will be in control of the weather pattern
at least through Thursday night, until the next Pacific trough
approaches the Pacific Northwest. Medium range model solutions
diverge on the strength and track of the upper trough as it swings
inland on Friday. The more favored areas will be the Cascade crest
and the northern mountains but the 12Z GFS brings the base of the
trough through central WA which would bring the precipitation
farther south into the basin. For now the Friday/Saturday forecast
will lean toward the ECMWF with the focus on the northern tier.
Temperature will warm to slightly above normal readings with
valleys in the upper 70s to mid 80s for the end of the workweek.
Winds will be mainly light and terrain driven except for breezy
conditions that will follow a cold front on Friday. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: Conditions have become showery vs widespread stratiform
rain over the extreme eastern portion of WA and the ID Panhandle.
Conditions at PUW SFF COE and GEG have responded with slowly
improving CIGS and VSBYS. We would expect all these sites to see
MVFR cigs improve to VFR levels between 20-22z based on
conditional climatology and radar/satellite trends. Confidence is
higher for GEG than at COE as cigs looks like they are lifting
over eastern Columbia Basin. Overnight all sites will see dry VFR
conditions which should persist through the end of the forecast
period. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 47 66 45 65 45 66 / 10 30 20 20 20 40
Coeur d`Alene 47 65 45 64 43 65 / 20 40 30 40 30 50
Pullman 44 64 42 62 41 64 / 0 30 20 20 20 30
Lewiston 51 72 51 69 49 71 / 0 20 20 20 20 30
Colville 50 65 46 63 44 70 / 40 50 40 50 50 30
Sandpoint 47 64 47 62 42 63 / 30 50 40 50 50 50
Kellogg 45 62 45 61 42 63 / 30 50 50 50 40 60
Moses Lake 53 73 49 73 50 75 / 0 10 10 40 30 10
Wenatchee 55 69 51 71 53 74 / 0 10 10 20 20 10
Omak 50 69 48 70 48 75 / 0 30 30 40 30 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
936 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.UPDATE...
LAST OF SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE EXITED AS WHAT INSTABILITY THERE
WAS OVER THE REGION HAS DIMINISHED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND DRIER AIR WORKING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SRN WI. WINDS HAVE ALSO
EASED WITH LESS GRADIENT AS LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AWAY FROM
THE UPPER LAKES. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING WELL WITH SOME
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY COVER.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...THEN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AFTER 00Z. LATEST NAM KEEPS PCPN
WEST OF KMSN THROUGH 03Z...IN LINE WITH OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS
KEEPING TAF SITES DRY UNTIL BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z.
&&
.MARINE...
SLACKENED GRADIENT HAS DROPPED WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT FOR A WHILE
AND LAST WEB CAM IMAGES AT SHEBOYGAN SHOW WAVES ARE NO MORE THAN 3
FEET. WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE WITH THIS NEARSHORE
FORECAST ISSUANCE.
&&
.BEACHES...
WITH WINDS AND WAVES EASING...WILL LET LAKESHORE HAZARD EXPIRE AT
10 PM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014/
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
THE FIRST ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION TURNED OUT TO BE A VERY NARROW
LINE OF NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT REMAINED NORTH OF I-94 BETWEEN
1 AND 3 PM. THERE WAS VERY LITTLE CAPE AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE HRRR MODEL STILL INSISTS
THAT THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT WHERE THE WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST THAT WAS IN
SOUTHWEST WI AT 3 PM. THE RADAR IS SHOWING THAT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
NOW AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE...AS THE QUESTION IS
WHETHER IT WILL HAVE THUNDER OR NOT. THE CAPE IS STILL LOW AND THE
BULK SHEAR IS EVEN LOWER THAN IT WAS WITH THE FIRST ROUND. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIM POPS AND JUST KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.
THE 850MB COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN WI THIS EVENING WITH
DRY MID LEVEL AIR BEHIND IT WILL STALL OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT...THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
WI LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A DRY AND COMFORTABLE NIGHT AND
A PLEASANT MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE
DUE TO A LAKE BREEZE. THE HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S BEGIN TO SNEAK IN.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES LINGERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THIS PERIOD. STILL EXPECT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SLIPPING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
TONIGHT TO MARCH BACK NORTHWARD LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
SCENARIO RESULTS FROM INCREASING SOUTHWEST STEERING WINDS ALOFT OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST DUE TO AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE WEEK. ONCE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE SRN WI
REGION...IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ONCE AGAIN DUE TO DOWNSTREAM W-NW
FLOW OVER NORTHEAST CONUS. HENCE SETUP WILL EXIST FOR POTENTIAL
REPEATED BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SRN WI AND ADJOINING
REGIONS. FIRST PERIOD OF CONCERN IS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WHEN SFC AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT SHIFTS NWD. STRONG RETURN OF THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE SURGE WILL RESULT IN LARGE ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES OF UP TO 2500 J/KG MON NIGHT WITH 35KTS SHEAR. AS A
RESULT...MAY BE SOME HAIL PRODUCERS. POTENTIAL MCS SHOULD MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST LATER MON NGT INTO EARLY TUE AS LOW TO MID LEVELS WARM
ON TUESDAY. HENCE CAPPING INVERSION AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
FORCING SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT NEED TO KEEP IN
SMALLER CHANCES DUE TO NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MORNING CONVECTION
MAY VERY WELL PUSH FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN IL.
RESURGENCE OF LOW LEVEL JET TUE NIGHT WL LIKELY SHIFT BOUNDARY BACK
INTO SOUTHERN WI ON WEDNESDAY. HENCE WL CONTINUE MID-HIGH LEVEL
CHANCE POPS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID INLAND AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH WITH HEAT
INDEX READINGS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S IN SOME AREAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY - FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON FRONTAL POSITION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATEST GFS HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF
ON OCCASIONAL LOCAL CONVECTION SUPPRESSING NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF
WARM FRONT AND SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF SRN WI/NRN IL WED NGT
INTO THU. LATEST GEM STILL CARRIES FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN
WI ON WED BUT ALSO SUPPRESSES IT SWD WITH NIGHTTIME CONVECTION.
HENCE EXPECT WAVERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE IN THE VICINITY INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE IT SHIFTS EWD WITH PASSING WEAK LOW PRESSURE. WILL
FOLLOW MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF FOR THE LATER PERIODS WHICH CARRIES
REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS WI FRI INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT SOLUTION OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
00Z GFS HAD BEEN SHOWING CUT-OFF UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER NRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LESS OF A PUSH FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN
PACIFIC TROF. EVEN DGEX NUDGES UPPER LOW INTO SRN CANADA EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND. HENCE A BETTER SHOT AT MORE PERSISTENT...DRY
CONDITIONS MAY RETURN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING
WEEK.
OTHERWISE...GFS PWAT VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH UNTIL THEN WITH VALUES
OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES WHICH IS APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS AT KGRB. HENCE FLOODING RAINS WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER AFTER TUE NGT...LOW LEVEL JET AXIS IS
AIMED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM WED THROUGH THU WITH WEAKER JET
AXIS PIVOTING TOWARD WI THU NGT AND FRI. HENCE REPEATED BOUTS OF
NIGHT TIME HEAVY RAINFALL NOT LOOKING LIKELY AT THIS POINT DURING
THIS PERIOD...AFTER TUE NIGHT POTENTIAL.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
THE POSSIBILITY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
WILL END BY 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO ROLL THROUGH SOUTHEAST MN INTO
WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING. WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
TONIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AS A MOIST AIRMASS FLOWS OVER
THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
BEACHES...
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND RESULTANT HIGH WAVES WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUED HIGH SWIM RISK ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES THROUGH
THE EVENING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-
060-066-071-072.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
301 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. A WEAK WARM FRONT ARCS
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE KANSAS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
MAIN AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA SO FAR TODAY BUT HAS BEEN SLOWLY ADVANCING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT
HAS BEEN SLOWED BY THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS THAT KEEP FEEDING THIS DRY AIR INTO THE LEADING EDGE.
THE 14.12Z HI-RES ARW AND 14.16Z HRRR ARE BOTH IN AGREEMENT IN
HOLDING THIS ACTIVITY TOGETHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT LIFTING
IT NORTHEAST IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH THIS TREND IN
MIND...WILL SO A SLOW BUT GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY LATE EVENING WILL HAVE 60 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3RD OF THE AREA WHILE REMAINING DRY
ACROSS THE EAST.
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
WYOMING AND COLORADO WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES WHILE TAKING ON MORE OF NEGATIVE
TILT. BOTH THE 14.12Z NAM AND GFS SHOW THE BEST PV ADVECTION IN
THE 500-300 MB LAYER STAYING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BUT SHOULD
STILL HAVE A PERIOD OF WEAK PV ADVECTION COME ACROSS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BECOME VERY STRONG
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW CREATING STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO WESTERN IOWA WHERE AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING. THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT THEN SHIFTS NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE NOSE OF THIS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTIONS AROUND 09Z OR SO AND BY 12Z THIS AXIS OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE AREA. EXPECTING TO SEE THE SEVERE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TRANSLATE
NORTHEAST WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BY THE TIME THE STORMS
ARRIVE IN THE AREA...THEY SHOULD BE ELEVATED AND WILL STILL HAVE
UP TO 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE 1KM TO WORK WITH. DESPITE
THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...THE SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK THAT GREAT IN THE
ELEVATED LAYER WITH ONLY AROUND 20 KNOTS SHOWN. THE BETTER SHEAR
LAGS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA UNDER THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE INCOMING JET CORE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO...BUT WITH THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
STORMS...NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT TO OCCUR TO
TONIGHT.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND THE NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ALL THE 14.12Z
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY 18Z SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT ABOUT TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE FRONT A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...SOME POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE OVER THE
EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ML CAPES SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET TO AROUND
1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AROUND 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR.
THE OTHER THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS SHOULD INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES
WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 3.5 KM. THIS SHOULD MAKE THE
CONVECTION EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
POSSIBLE. BELIEVE THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH AND NOT
TRAINING THAT FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE ISSUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS TEMPORARILY BUILD OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
RELOADING WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL STILL BE BACK OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET EJECTED OUT OF THIS
AND COME ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THE BEST PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHWEST BUT
AT THE LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT THAT GOES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
START TO COME BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS SHOULD WORK BACK
INTO CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND THEN TO ABOUT THE
IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG AND GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT. BETTER CAPE MAY IN PLACE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG
OF ML CAPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. 0-6 KM SHEAR LOOKS PRETTY
DECENT AS WELL WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS.
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME A THREAT AS
WELL. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 4 KM AND COULD
TRAIN WEST TO EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS AND THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY HINGE ON HOW
MUCH RAIN FALLS TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
THE COMPLEX THAT FORMS MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE VERY FAR TO THE
SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE WESTERN LONG WAVE
TROUGH. AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COME OUT OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH...SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
14.12Z ECMWF THEN SUGGESTS THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL START TO LIFT OUT
WHILE THE GFS CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
KEEPING SOME RAIN OVER THE REGION. THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT
SUGGESTS THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION AND A
FLASH FLOODING THREAT. WILL MAINTAIN 40 TO 60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
AS LONG AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES
AHEAD OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. WIND
SPEEDS OF 16 TO 22 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS
POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FOCUS INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING NUMEROUS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN LATER TONIGHT
AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES. LOOK FOR VISIBILITIES TO FALL TO 2SM
IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND
1500 FT. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 KTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION AROUND MID MORNING ON SUNDAY
WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. PLAN ON
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1257 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS SEEM TO BE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITATION FALLING OUT OF A MID-LEVEL DECK IN ASSOCIATED WITH
ZONE OF WAA AND SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. 06Z NAM...LATEST RUN
OF RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO BE RELATIVELY CLUELESS. LOOKING FURTHER
UPSTREAM...AREA OF MAINLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
REMNACE OF MCS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA NOT IN A BIG HURRY TO
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SOME EVIDENCE
OF WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE. AGAIN
SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING DETAILS OF THIS ACTIVITY
VERY WELL WITH HRRR A BIT TOO FAR NORTH. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST INITIAL BAND OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY FALLING OUR OF MID-
DECK MAY MAKE IT A BIT FURTHER EAST THAT WHAT IS CURRENTLY
REFLECTED IN GRIDS. ACTIVITY FOR THE MOST PART VERY LIGHT...BUT AM
SEEING A FEW 45-50 DBZ RADAR RETURNS. ACTIVITY FURTHER UPSTREAM
APPEARS TO BE HEADING MORE TOWARD NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. GIVEN THAT
850 WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TOWARD
MID- DAY...WOULD EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY TO STAY FOCUSED OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN AS WE APPROACH MIDDAY.
GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS WILL BUMP UP POPS A BIT MORE ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I29
CORRIDOR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
UPPER FLOW ACRS NOAM IS QUITE AMPLIFIED FOR EARLY SUMMER. THE
LNGWV TROF POSN IS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH BROAD
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING CENTERED AT AROUNG 95W. THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WL
SHIFT EWD SOME THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN BUILD/SHARPEN BACK NWWD
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS AN ACTIVE PATTERN...
AND WL LIKELY RESULT IN ABV NORMAL PCPN. TEMPS WL VARY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF EACH SYSTEM AND DUE TO DAY TO DAY DIFFERENCES IN CLDS
AND PCPN...BUT WL PROBABLY END UP A LITTLE ABV NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
A MAJOR SHRTWV IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN THE BASE OF THE WRN
LNGWV TROF. THE SHRTWV WL SWING ARND INTO A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
EJECTS OUT OF TROF PSN...DRIVING A STG CYCLONE TOWARD SW ONTARIO
BY 00Z MON. CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER ARND WX GENERATED BY
THE CYCLONE.
STG ISENT LIFT WITH WELL DEVELOPED LLJ WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM IS FEEDING SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ACRS THE NRN
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY IS STILL LIMITED DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE GETTING SHOVED SWD BEHIND THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...
SO CONVECTION WAS WEAKENING AS IT MVS EWD. FARTHER E...SOME SHRA
WERE DEVELOPING OUT OF MID-DECK. THOSE WERE EDGING CLOSE TO THE
FCST AREA...AND WERE REACHING THE GROUND BASED ON SFC OBS. WL NEED
TO CARRY SPRINKLES ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...SHIFTG THE
AXIS NEWD WITH TIME. ECMWF ALREADY INDICATED THIS HAPPENING
YDA...SHOULD HAVE ADDED IT TO THE FCST BACK THEN.
CONVECTION COMING OUT OF SD FCST TO WEAKEN...BUT RADAR MOSAIC SURE
MAKES IT LOOK LIKE IT COULD AFFECT AT LEAST THE WRN PART OF THE
FCST AREA BEFORE THAT HAPPENS. WL LINGER SOME SLGT CHC POPS OVER
THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT...
AND BE READY TO UPDATE IF IT BECOMES APPARENT PCPN IS GOING TO
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA.
THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM DEALT PRIMARILY WITH STRUCTURING POPS.
STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN W/SW OF THE AREA TNGT AS THAT
IS WHERE LLJ WL BE DIRECTED AND WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY WL
RESIDE. STILL...LIKELY-CATEGORICAL POPS SEEMED WARRANTED FOR THE W
AS THAT AREA WL PROBABLY BE AFFECTED BY THE NE FLANK OF THE MCS.
CARRIED CHC POPS IN THE E.
THE MCS SHOULD WEAKEN/SHIFT OFF TO THE NE SUN MORNING. QUESTION IS
WHETHER/TO WHAT EXTENT REDEVELOPMENT WL OCCUR AS THE TAIL OF THE
MAIN SHRTWV AND COLD FRONT SURGE ACRS THE AREA IN THE AFTN. THE
NEGATIVE FACTORS ARE THE MORNING CONVECTION AND LIKELIHOOD OF
EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLDS ACRS THE AREA...AND HAVING THE DEEP MOISTURE
STILL TRYING TO GET INTO THE AREA FM THE SE. THE POSITIVES ARE THE
STG DYNAMICS AND TIME OF DAY OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO GET VERY DETAILED WITH POPS...BUT LIKELY POPS
SEEMED WARRANTED ALL AREAS AT LEAST SOME POINT IN THE DAY. MUCH OF
THE AREA IS IN THE SPC 5 PCT CHC OF SVR ON THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK. THAT SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN QUESTIONABLE INSTABILITY. BUT
IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP BEING GREATER EITHER DUE TO HIGHER DWPTS OR
FEWER CLDS...SVR THREAT COULD INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY GIVEN THE
DYANMICS SWINGING THROUGH THE RGN.
TEMPS SUN WL ALSO DEPEND ON HOW THE CONVECTION BEHAVES. A STG NWD
PUSH OF WARM AIR WL OCCUR E OF THE APPROACHING CYCLONE. THERE ARE
ALWAYSCONCERNS IN SITNS LIKE THIS ABOUT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MESSING
UP TEMPS. BUT WE ARE AT JUST ABOUT THE HIGHEST SUN ANGLES OF THE
YEAR...SO EVEN JUST AN HOUR OR TWO OF BREAKS IN THE CLDS SHOULD
CAUSE TEMPS TO SURGE UPWARD. RAISED MAXES ACRS ALL BUT LAKESHORE
AREAS. THE LAKESHORE IS TRICKY TOO...AS CHILLY TEMPS LIKLEY MOST
OF THE DAY WITH SELY/SLY FLOW UP THE LENGTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. BUT
SOME WARMING IS POSSIBLE LATE DAY AS FLOW VEERS SWLY. THOUGHT WAS
THAT SLY FLOW ALONG THE LAKESHORE WON/T CHANGE UNTIL THE
EVENING...SO STUCK WITH CHILLY MAX TEMPS RIGHT AT THE SHORELINE.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE ENDING OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES OR REMOVED
THEM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG
THE LAKESHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY EVENING TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA MONDAY EVENING... AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. ECMWF SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO SOME CONCERN ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS WARM
FRONT JUST LINGERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
CONCERNED THAT MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH
CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECTED FRONT MAY
BE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS INDICATE WHICH COMPLICATES THE
MATTER ON HOW FAR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ALSO
OF CONCERN IS THAT THE ECMWF IS STARTING TO NOSE A 1028MB HIGH
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THAT COULD KEEP THE NORTH DRYER AT
TIMES THAN WHAT IS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. MONDAY SHOULD BE A
WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. DEW POINTS WILL
NOT BE BAD WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S...MAYBE SOME MID TO
UPPER 40S IN THE SANDY SOIL REGION. BEYOND THAT...WIND
DIRECTION...CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL COULD HAVE A BIG
IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FALLING INTO A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE...SEE 12Z GRB SOUNDING...WERE WEAKENING AS THEY MADE
THEIR WAY OUT OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AT MIDDAY. EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL BECOME AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT AS 925MB AND 850MB WINDS INCREASE AND THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB AND
SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING
THE EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALONG WITH THE MVFR CONDITIONS...TO
SPREAD INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........ESB
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
842 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS SEEM TO BE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITATION FALLING OUT OF A MID-LEVEL DECK IN ASSOCIATED WITH
ZONE OF WAA AND SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. 06Z NAM...LATEST RUN
OF RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO BE RELATIVELY CLUELESS. LOOKING FURTHER
UPSTREAM...AREA OF MAINLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
REMNACE OF MCS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA NOT IN A BIG HURRY TO
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SOME EVIDENCE
OF WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE. AGAIN
SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING DETAILS OF THIS ACTIVITY
VERY WELL WITH HRRR A BIT TOO FAR NORTH. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST INITIAL BAND OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY FALLING OUR OF MID-
DECK MAY MAKE IT A BIT FURTHER EAST THAT WHAT IS CURRENTLY
REFLECTED IN GRIDS. ACTIVITY FOR THE MOST PART VERY LIGHT...BUT AM
SEEING A FEW 45-50 DBZ RADAR RETURNS. ACTIVITY FURTHER UPSTREAM
APPEARS TO BE HEADING MORE TOWARD NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. GIVEN THAT
850 WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TOWARD
MID- DAY...WOULD EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY TO STAY FOCUSED OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN AS WE APPROACH MIDDAY.
GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS WILL BUMP UP POPS A BIT MORE ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I29
CORRIDOR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
UPPER FLOW ACRS NOAM IS QUITE AMPLIFIED FOR EARLY SUMMER. THE
LNGWV TROF POSN IS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH BROAD
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING CENTERED AT AROUNG 95W. THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WL
SHIFT EWD SOME THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN BUILD/SHARPEN BACK NWWD
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS AN ACTIVE PATTERN...
AND WL LIKELY RESULT IN ABV NORMAL PCPN. TEMPS WL VARY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF EACH SYSTEM AND DUE TO DAY TO DAY DIFFERENCES IN CLDS
AND PCPN...BUT WL PROBABLY END UP A LITTLE ABV NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
A MAJOR SHRTWV IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN THE BASE OF THE WRN
LNGWV TROF. THE SHRTWV WL SWING ARND INTO A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
EJECTS OUT OF TROF PSN...DRIVING A STG CYCLONE TOWARD SW ONTARIO
BY 00Z MON. CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER ARND WX GENERATED BY
THE CYCLONE.
STG ISENT LIFT WITH WELL DEVELOPED LLJ WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM IS FEEDING SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ACRS THE NRN
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY IS STILL LIMITED DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE GETTING SHOVED SWD BEHIND THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...
SO CONVECTION WAS WEAKENING AS IT MVS EWD. FARTHER E...SOME SHRA
WERE DEVELOPING OUT OF MID-DECK. THOSE WERE EDGING CLOSE TO THE
FCST AREA...AND WERE REACHING THE GROUND BASED ON SFC OBS. WL NEED
TO CARRY SPRINKLES ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...SHIFTG THE
AXIS NEWD WITH TIME. ECMWF ALREADY INDICATED THIS HAPPENING
YDA...SHOULD HAVE ADDED IT TO THE FCST BACK THEN.
CONVECTION COMING OUT OF SD FCST TO WEAKEN...BUT RADAR MOSAIC SURE
MAKES IT LOOK LIKE IT COULD AFFECT AT LEAST THE WRN PART OF THE
FCST AREA BEFORE THAT HAPPENS. WL LINGER SOME SLGT CHC POPS OVER
THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT...
AND BE READY TO UPDATE IF IT BECOMES APPARENT PCPN IS GOING TO
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA.
THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM DEALT PRIMARILY WITH STRUCTURING POPS.
STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN W/SW OF THE AREA TNGT AS THAT
IS WHERE LLJ WL BE DIRECTED AND WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY WL
RESIDE. STILL...LIKELY-CATEGORICAL POPS SEEMED WARRANTED FOR THE W
AS THAT AREA WL PROBABLY BE AFFECTED BY THE NE FLANK OF THE MCS.
CARRIED CHC POPS IN THE E.
THE MCS SHOULD WEAKEN/SHIFT OFF TO THE NE SUN MORNING. QUESTION IS
WHETHER/TO WHAT EXTENT REDEVELOPMENT WL OCCUR AS THE TAIL OF THE
MAIN SHRTWV AND COLD FRONT SURGE ACRS THE AREA IN THE AFTN. THE
NEGATIVE FACTORS ARE THE MORNING CONVECTION AND LIKELIHOOD OF
EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLDS ACRS THE AREA...AND HAVING THE DEEP MOISTURE
STILL TRYING TO GET INTO THE AREA FM THE SE. THE POSITIVES ARE THE
STG DYNAMICS AND TIME OF DAY OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO GET VERY DETAILED WITH POPS...BUT LIKELY POPS
SEEMED WARRANTED ALL AREAS AT LEAST SOME POINT IN THE DAY. MUCH OF
THE AREA IS IN THE SPC 5 PCT CHC OF SVR ON THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK. THAT SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN QUESTIONABLE INSTABILITY. BUT
IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP BEING GREATER EITHER DUE TO HIGHER DWPTS OR
FEWER CLDS...SVR THREAT COULD INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY GIVEN THE
DYANMICS SWINGING THROUGH THE RGN.
TEMPS SUN WL ALSO DEPEND ON HOW THE CONVECTION BEHAVES. A STG NWD
PUSH OF WARM AIR WL OCCUR E OF THE APPROACHING CYCLONE. THERE ARE
ALWAYSCONCERNS IN SITNS LIKE THIS ABOUT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MESSING
UP TEMPS. BUT WE ARE AT JUST ABOUT THE HIGHEST SUN ANGLES OF THE
YEAR...SO EVEN JUST AN HOUR OR TWO OF BREAKS IN THE CLDS SHOULD
CAUSE TEMPS TO SURGE UPWARD. RAISED MAXES ACRS ALL BUT LAKESHORE
AREAS. THE LAKESHORE IS TRICKY TOO...AS CHILLY TEMPS LIKLEY MOST
OF THE DAY WITH SELY/SLY FLOW UP THE LENGTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. BUT
SOME WARMING IS POSSIBLE LATE DAY AS FLOW VEERS SWLY. THOUGHT WAS
THAT SLY FLOW ALONG THE LAKESHORE WON/T CHANGE UNTIL THE
EVENING...SO STUCK WITH CHILLY MAX TEMPS RIGHT AT THE SHORELINE.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE ENDING OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES OR REMOVED
THEM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG
THE LAKESHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY EVENING TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA MONDAY EVENING... AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. ECMWF SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO SOME CONCERN ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS WARM
FRONT JUST LINGERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
CONCERNED THAT MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH
CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECTED FRONT MAY
BE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS INDICATE WHICH COMPLICATES THE
MATTER ON HOW FAR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ALSO
OF CONCERN IS THAT THE ECMWF IS STARTING TO NOSE A 1028MB HIGH
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THAT COULD KEEP THE NORTH DRYER AT
TIMES THAN WHAT IS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. MONDAY SHOULD BE A
WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. DEW POINTS WILL
NOT BE BAD WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S...MAYBE SOME MID TO
UPPER 40S IN THE SANDY SOIL REGION. BEYOND THAT...WIND
DIRECTION...CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL COULD HAVE A BIG
IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITONS UNTIL THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION
ARRIVES TNGT...THEN CIGS SHOULD DROP ACRS THE W. WL MAKE ISSUANCE
TIME DECISION ON LLWS FOR TNGT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........ESB
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1140 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
MAIN FOCUS THIS EVENING IS WITH WHETHER TO ADD ANY SPRINKLES TO
THE FORECAST AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS
LED TO SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
THESE RETURNS ARE COMING FROM A 10KFT DECK...BUT A FEW OBS HAVE
ACTUALLY REPORTED SOME -RA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS IT
CONTINUES TO WORK EAST...EXPECT THAT IT WILL FALL APART OR AT
LEAST NOT STRENGTHEN/BECOME WIDESPREAD. SO...WILL KEEP IT OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING. TOMORROW STILL IS LOOKING LIKE A
VERY WINDY DAY WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH
RANGE. MAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME IN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
AT 3 PM...A 1018 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI.
THIS HIGH HAS KEPT THE AREA MAINLY CLEAR TODAY. FURTHER
WEST...MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. SOME OF THE
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS CONVECTION IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...MORE AND MORE OF THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL SEE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY. BOTH THE ARW AND HRRR TRY TO
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THESE MODELS ARE ALREADY OVER DOING THE DEW
POINTS...SO THEY HAVE FAR TOO MUCH CAPE. AS A RESULT...KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY LIKE THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW.
ON SATURDAY...THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
TOWARD THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHEAST IOWA...AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE 0-3 KM SHEAR WOULD BE
FAVORABLE TO DAMAGING WINDS...THE ML CAPES /LESS THAN 250 J/KG/
WILL MAKE IT VERY UNLIKELY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
VEERS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND WARM
CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS AROUND 3.5 KM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAIN.
ON SUNDAY...THE 13.00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE
NAM/WRF CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THIS WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE
MORNING. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THAT IT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AREAS WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THE MORNING AND THROUGH
WESTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING DIFFERENCE
ALLOWS MORE 0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE TO BUILD AHEAD OF THIS SHORT
WAVE. THE NAM HAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG. MEANWHILE THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES RANGING FROM 300 TO 1200 J/KG.
WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS...THIS OPENS UP A SMALL
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SUPERCELLS COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE SHORT WAVE. IF THEY DID HAPPEN TO DEVELOP...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS HAS THIS FRONT MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS THIS FRONT ONLY
GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. 1 TO 2K 0-3 KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPES DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY AND SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND MODERATE TO STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A MESCOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN IOWA...AND THE CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD
LAYER DEPTHS AROUND 4 KM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. IN ADDITION...WITH 0-3 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE 0-1
KM SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT WOULD BE EVEN FAVORABLE OF THE
POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALONG THE WARM FRONT. IN THE WARM
SECTOR...THE CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END AS AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS BROUGHT IN ISENTROPICALLY INTO
THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THIS CAP BETWEEN 900 AND 650 MB
WILL ALLOW MOST UNSTABLE CAPES TO CLIMB INTO THE 3 TO 6K J/JG
ON TUESDAY.
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH OF
THESE DIFFERENCES START TO SHOW UP ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL
DEVELOP ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT NEAR OR
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND THIS KEEPS THE AREA IN WARM SECTOR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A STRONG
ENOUGH COLD POOL IN THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT THIS
FRONT GETS PUSHED SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA AND IT REMAINS WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE IN BOTH
SCENARIOS...THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL GREATLY
AFFECT HOW WARM WE WILL GET DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DUE TO
THIS...JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR AS
THEY MOVE THROUGH WITH RST MORE LIKELY TO SEE THEM THAN LSE. WINDS
WILL PICK UP QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS REACHING THE 25
TO 35KT RANGE AT TIMES. RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH SOME POTENTIAL DROPS
TO MVFR/IFR WITH THESE SHOWERS/STORMS. THE TIMING OF CONVECTION
GETTING IN IS A LITTLE IN QUESTION AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
IT WILL GET IN LATE IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BUT FALL APART
AS IT GETS INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MAIN
TIMING WHICH APPEARS TO BE IN THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1000 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014
ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO DROP POPS IN THE EAST. LATEST OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE WE HAVE STABILIZED FOR THE MOST PART WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF
CAPE LEFT AROUND SCOTTSBLUFF...SIDNEY AND ALLIANCE BUT INSTABILITY
ON DOWNWARD TREND. LATEST HRRR INDICATING OVERNIGHT ROUND OF
ISOLATED STORMS MOST LIKELY TO FIRE WELL OUT TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA. 02/GARMON
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014
TOWERING CU IS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE EASTWARD INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDARY
DEVELOPED ALONG THE INTERFACE BETWEEN SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW OFF THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS FROM THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED NORTH OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION A BIT HERE.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW VALUES OF CAPE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN CLEAR SLOT
WITH READINGS OF 250 J/KG OR LESS...WITH LESS INSTABILITY ELSEWHERE.
STILL THINKING AREAS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IN THE ZONE OF WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THEN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING OVER THE PLAINS WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION
INCREASING AS WELL...COULD SEE A FEW WEAK ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DIGGING INTO THE PACNW ON MONDAY. MODELS STILL POINT AT HIGHER DEWS
ADVECTING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL
MAINTAIN MENTION FOR WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON T-STORMS NORTH OF A
LINE FROM THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE TO ALLIANCE. A STRENGTHENING
SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL INTENSIFY
THE SW-NE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CWA...THUS EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON. MUCH WARMER TEMPS AND DRIER AIR WILL
OCCUR AS WELL IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...SO HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS FOR THIS AREA. FUELS ARE STILL IN GREEN UP
SO FIRE CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL...BUT THIS PATTERN WILL CERTAINLY HELP
TO DRY THESE FUELS OUT SOMEWHAT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES WITH THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS...FLOW ALOFT
WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER AND WILL SHIFT THE AXIS OF MOISTURE BACK
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. THIS COULD KEEP THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING DRY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY ALONG THE COASTLINE OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA...AS IT DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY
THIS WEEK. THIS LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO STALL AND MOVE EASTWARD.
SEVERAL DAYS AGO...MOST MODELS WERE SHOWING THIS LOW MOVING ACROSS
WYOMING AND BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ALONG WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. MOST MODELS HAVE TRENDING FURTHER
NORTH WITH THE LOW IN THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH THE CURRENT
12Z ECMWF/GEM AND NAM SHOWING THE LOW EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO
MONTANA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FURTHEST SOUTH IS THE
GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE LOCATION OF THIS LOW WILL BE KEY IN
DETERMINING PRECIP CHANCES AND PRECIP AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA LOOKS NEARLY
CERTAIN REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK. KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE PACIFIC FRONT. KEPT POP BETWEEN
15 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF WYOMING ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION OF THE LOW. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAT THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF I25 WILL SEE A GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO
INCREASED POP UP TO 40 PERCENT EAST OF I25. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY CHANGE IN THE
FUTURE DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...THE ONLY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POSITION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW A REX BLOCK ATTEMPTING TO FORM...WHICH MAY
ALLOW THE LOW TO STALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
COOLER AIR TO REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. STARTED TO
INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL...BUT BELOW MOS
CONSIDERING THE POSITION OF THE LOW.
FOR THE WEEKEND...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE 80S AND
NEAR 90 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTH. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...MODELS
INDICATE TROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER THE SPINE OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
TIME FRAMES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014
VFR EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY BACKING INTO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED
TSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT KCYS...KAIA...AND KSNY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 20 KNOTS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KCDR WHICH WILL RECEIVE GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT. WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HUMIDITIES
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL
APPROACH 30-40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. ALTHOUGH FUELS ARE STILL IN GREEN-UP...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
DRYING TO OCCUR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. A FEW T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT ON MONDAY AND FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON TUESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH
BASED...PRODUCE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR T-STORMS AND WETTING
RAINS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014
RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...WITH THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT SARATOGA AND THE
LARAMIE RIVER AT LARAMIE LOOKING TO FALL BELOW ACTION STAGE BY
MIDWEEK. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE COOLING ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STILL SOME
HEALTHY SNOW PACK ABOVE 10000 FEET IN THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES...SO A RAPID WARM UP COULD RELEASE THIS WATER FOR FUTURE
RISES IN RIVERS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...RJM
HYDROLOGY...RJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1104 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
MOST OF THE EVENING CONVECTION IS WEAKENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A STORM EXITING EAST OUT OF MORRILL COUNTY NE WITH SMALL POPS LEFT
IN PLACE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FASTER MIDLEVEL FLOW WHERE CONVECTION IS MORE
LIKELY TO BE DYNAMICALLY GENERATED OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WERE RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE NEBRASKA ZONES AND MADE SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTEMENTS ON HOURLY TEMPS BUT STILL THINK OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE IN
THE BALLPARK. LATEST HRRR HIGHER RES MODEL RUN SHOWING STRATUS
FORMING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TOWARD MORNING. THIS IS NOT BEING PICKED UP BY THE GFS OR THE NAM
AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW HAVE NOT ADDED THIS INTO THE FORECAST BUT
SOMETHING THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH. WITH WINDS GOING
MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN THE FORECAST AND IN THE MODEL DATA...STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IN THE EAST DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN DOWNSLOPE
NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. 02/GARMON
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THIS BOUNDARY IS ACTING LIKE A WARM FRONT AND A
DRYLINE WITH THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHWARD TOWARDS A SURFACE
LOW JUST NORTH OF CASPER. WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE 20S AND LOW 30S...WITH DEWPOINTS STILL WELL INTO
THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW. BELIEVE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TORRINGTON AND ALLIANCE
AREAS...BUT NOT NEAR THE I80 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING DUE TO
CONSIDERABLE WARMING ALOFT. NOT CONFIDENCE THAT THE NORTHERN ZONES
WILL SEE ANY SEVERE WEATHER AS RADAR RETURNS ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME...BUT THAT MAY CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
03Z THIS EVENING.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
WYOMING TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...MODELS INDICATE A 90-100 KT JET MAX
MOVING EASTWARD AND THEN STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING. KEPT A
DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN TSTORMS NORTH OF I80 FROM
RAWLINS TO DOUGLAS...BELIEVE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER
SUNSET ACROSS CNTRL WYOMING AS THE JET INCREASES IN STRENGTH AND
SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING. THIS GENERAL AREA WILL
MOVE EASTWARD SLOWLY ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND WILL
LIKELY BE THE AREA TO FOCUS ON FOR SATURDAY CONVECTION WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE MORE NUMEROUS THAN TODAY.
MODELS SHOW THE PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY...WHICH SETS UP A TRICKY WEEKEND FORECAST FOR EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND. MOS GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS A 15 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. THIS MAKES SENSE DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
GFS AND GEM ARE GENERALLY WARMER WITH A SLOWER FROPA...WHILE THE
NAM AND ECMWF ARE MUCH FASTER. CONTINUED TRENDING THE FORECAST
TOWARDS THE FASTER AND COOLER SOLUTION WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60S TO MID 70S...AND MAYBE AROUND 80 AT SIDNEY WHICH WILL BE THE
LAST AREA TO EXPERIENCE FROPA. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASED POP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 40 TO 55
PERCENT...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE EASTWARD INTO
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE LOCATION. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH A FEW MODELS SHOWING
QPF VALUES OVER 1 INCH ALONG I80 WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER THROUGH MID SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE AND BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE DRY HOWEVER...SO OVERALL A PLEASANT DAY
WITH POP BELOW 10 PERCENT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIMILARITIES WITH DIGGING AN UPPER LOW
INTO THE PAC NW AND ROCKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS THEN OCCURRING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS
THE STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATES OVER THE PAC NW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...ENERGETIC SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...
HOWEVER IT WILL BE A RATHER DRY FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL FAVOR
CONTINUED WAA BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC AS WELL...SO COMBINATION
LACK OF MOISTURE AND WARMING ALOFT WILL REDUCE CONVECTIVE
POSSIBILITIES QUITE A BIT. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED-T ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF TIME
FOR MODELS TO CHANGE...BUT FAVORING AN OVERALL DRY...WARM...AND
BREEZY SOLUTION FOR MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OUT WEST ON
TUESDAY AND WILL AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CWA VERY WARM...AND STILL WITHIN THE DRY
AIRMASS. AGAIN COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT FOCUSED IN THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE MORE
MOIST SSE SFC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST OVER THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIVERGE
QUITE A BIT AS TO HOW THE LOW WILL ACTUALLY EVOLVE. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO EJECT THE ENERGY NORTHWARD INTO CANADA...WHILE THE GFS
MOVES IT OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BOTH SOLUTIONS
FAVOR A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE DRIER IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVERHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
SOME CONCERN WITH WIDESPREAD IFR DEVELOPING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR FORECAST SHOWING IFR
BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AFTER 09Z. FIND THIS HARD
TO FOLLOW AS WINDS STAY WESTERLY. SO...WENT MVFR FOR OUR PANHANDLE
AIRPORTS. MID SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY. FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR OUR PANHANDLE
AIRPORTS AND MAYBE HERE AT KCYS AND KLAR. STILL TOO FAR OUT FOR
EXACT TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THE STRATUS MOVES IN
TONIGHT. SO KEPT VCTS WORDING IN TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
DRY CONDITIONS WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 15 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH...ESPECIALLY OVER CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. HUMIDITIES WILL
BE MUCH HIGHER ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WHERE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...MUCH HIGHER DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. STILL SOME HEALTHY SNOW PACK IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...SO A RAPID WARM UP COULD
RELEASE THIS WATER FOR FUTURE RISES IN RIVERS. IN ADDITION...WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR A POTENTIAL RAINFALL EVENT DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GARMON
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RJM/TJT
HYDROLOGY...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
259 AM MDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON JUN 16 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE EXPECTED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. DRY WEST TO SW FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVR THE AREA TODAY AND
PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. SFC WINDS WL INCREASE IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING SUSTAINED AFTERNOON WINDS IN MOST
AREAS OF 20 KTS OR HIGHER. HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATING AFTERNOON
GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS OVR THE SERN PLAINS...AND AROUND 35 KTS IN THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY. WITH WIND GUSTS THIS STRONG...WL ADD BLOWING DUST
TO THE FORECAST FOR THE SERN PLAINS AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
LOCALIZED LOW VSBYS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE BLOWING
DUST.
WHEN THE WINDS PICK UP LATER TODAY...THE SFC DEW POINTS WL QUICKLY
DRY OUT...AND MIN RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
10 PERCENT OVR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THERE WL BE WIDESPREAD WEATHER
CONDITIONS REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS WITH REGARDS TO FIRE
WEATHER...HOWEVER THE ONLY AREA THAT CURRENTLY HAS FUELS THAT ARE
CONSIDERED DRY...IS EL PASO COUNTY. THEREFORE THE ONLY LOCATION
THAT WL BE COVERED WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IS EL PASO COUNTY.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY OVR THE SERN
PLAINS...AND WL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY SHOULD SEE HIGH AROUND AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON JUN 16 2014
...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EARLY IN PERIOD THEN MOISTENING UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR WILL
BE OVER THE REGION BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
KEEPS HOT AND DRY SW FLOW OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW...FUELS ARE
MOIST ALL AREAS EXCEPT EL PASO COUNTY. HOWEVER...IF FUELS DRY OUTTHEN
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY
FOR EL PASO COUNTY AND WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY BY THE
DAY SHIFT LATER TODAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER ON WED...THAT THE
DRYLINE MAY BECOME ACTIVE OVER THE FAR E PLAINS. BOTH THE 00Z NAM
AND EC HAVE A PRETTY POTENT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS N CO AND
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD SVR TSRA OVER THE FAR E PLAINS. SPC HAS
MENTIONED THIS IN THERE DAY3 OUTLOOK. LATEST 06Z NAM RUN HAS
TROUGH EVEN SHARPER...AND THUS A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME STRONG
THUNDER OVER THE FAR SE PLAINS
OVERALL DRY WX EXPECTED THU AND FRI AS COOLER DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND WED NIGHTS TROUGH PASSAGE.
EC AND GFS HINT THAT THINGS SHOULD MOISTEN UP FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
EC MORE BULLISH ON PRECIP CHANCES. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE IS
MAINLY BEING FORCED BY THE LOW LVLS (PATTERN ALOFT IS PRETTY
FLAT)...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND SHUNTS HIGHER
LLVL MOISTURE (50-60DWPT AIR) INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE
WIDESPREAD LOW END POPS OVER THE REGION...BUT THESE VALUES MAY NEED
TO BE BUMPED UP...ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY...IF THE EC SOLUTION
VERIFIES. /HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON JUN 16 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AT KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS. STRONG SWRLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
COZ226-227.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ226-227.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
335 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL GA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...BUT A LEE TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO SET UP ON TUESDAY.
IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLOUD DEBRIS STILL AROUND FROM THE EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE BY SUNRISE.
DIURNAL CU SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR IS NOT REALLY
PINGING ONE SPECIFIC PLACE FOR INITIATION. HOWEVER...THE DISSIPATING
BOUNDARY MAY FOCUS SOME ACTIVITY WITH OUTFLOWS CONTINUING TO FOCUS
ANY STORMS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE GETTING STRONGER ALOFT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS.
NLISTEMAA
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED IS FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WITH UPPER RIDGING DOMINATING THE AREA AND THE TAIL END OF
A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY MIDWEEK. THIS ALONG WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. EXPECT
AN INCREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S IN
SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS WANTING TO BACK OFF JUST A TAD ON TEMPS
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
TDP
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AROUND THE TERMINAL
SITES...ESPECIALLY THOSE LOCALES THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY WITH ANY CIGS AROUND 5KFT.
CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. LESS CONVECTIVE TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 93 71 92 71 / 40 40 30 20
ATLANTA 91 73 92 74 / 30 30 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 87 65 86 66 / 40 40 30 20
CARTERSVILLE 92 71 93 70 / 20 20 30 20
COLUMBUS 94 73 94 74 / 30 30 20 10
GAINESVILLE 91 70 91 72 / 40 40 30 20
MACON 93 71 94 70 / 30 30 20 10
ROME 92 69 93 70 / 20 20 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 92 70 92 70 / 40 40 20 20
VIDALIA 92 70 93 73 / 30 30 20 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
314 AM MDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDED THROUGH THE PACNW. MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER
CURRENTLY OVER SEATTLE/VANCOUVER BC. ONE SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST IDAHO WITH ANOTHER DIGGING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHWEST NEVADA. RADAR SHOWS POCKETS OF WEAK PRECIP ECHOES OVER
SOUTHERN IDAHO THOUGH STRONGER CONVECTION WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES IN WESTERN IDAHO THIS MORNING. HRRR AND NAM BRING
CONSOLIDATED BAND OF PRECIP INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING AS MAIN
FEATURE CLOSES OFF AND DIGS INTO NORTHEAST OREGON THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. UPPER JET DIGGING INTO BASE OF TROUGH LATE TODAY BEGINS TO
EJECT NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY NOT
IMPRESSIVE SO LIMITED TSTORM THREAT TO ISOLATED COVERAGE. UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE INTO THE REGION WITH CONTINUED COOL AND
CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS. GFS AND NAM VERY CLOSE IN SOLUTIONS WITH
ONLY MINOR DEVIATIONS IN PLACEMENT OF QPF BANDS. THUS HAVE GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN MAINTAINING HIGH POPS MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY. CENTER
OF UPPER LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT LEAVING
ELONGATED TROUGH THROUGH EAST IDAHO INTO UTAH. DRY SLOT PUNCHES
THROUGH SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AGAIN WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN NAM/GFS. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE DIGS INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA FOR HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ALONG DIVIDE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED WELL
INTO WYOMING WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IMPACTING EXTREME NORTHEAST
CORNER AND RIDGE BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY INTO THE PACNW. DMH
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EARLY IN
THE EXTENDED FOR RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EAST
IDAHO BETWEEN CLOSED LOW OVER UPPER PLAINS AND NEXT AMPLIFIED
TROUGH OFF PACIFIC COAST. BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
BY LATE SATURDAY THOUGH QUITE A BIT DIFFERENCE IN DETAILS. BOTH
MODELS FAVOR AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH ECMWF THE WETTER MODEL. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE
MODELS HANDING THE UPPER PLAINS LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO
HANDLING OF UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
RESULTING CONVECTIVE SCENARIOS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT. OPTED TO
KEEP POPS NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH REMAINDER OF EXTENDED WITH
TEMPS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BLEND. DMH
&&
.AVIATION...CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE THIS
MORNING. RADAR RETURNS BEGINNING TO SHOW AND EXPECT THE TREND TO
CONTINUE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. UPPER LOW ADVANCING INTO THE AREA TO
BRING A GOOD SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO ALL TAF SITES BY THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS TO LOWER AFTER 18Z WITH ISOLD TSTORMS EXPECTED
THRU THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHRA EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
DITTMANN
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A GOOD SHOT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. INITIAL SHOT ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHTNING BUT WE DO EXPECT
WETTING RAINS FOR MOST AREAS. RAIN BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE
TONIGHT ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS AND OF COURSE HIGHER HUMIDITIES.
THIS IS WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED TO HELP FINER FUELS MOISTEN UP.
ONCE THE MAIN UPPER LOW PASSES MID WEEK...WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER. DITTMANN
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
403 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
308 AM CDT
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SPINNING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW FOLLOWING ALONG. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCS EAST THEN SOUTH THEN
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
SPREADING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES
TRAVERSING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BASE AND TO ITS EAST.
THIS WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO TONIGHT. THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH
WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE
UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TODAY BUT ENERGY WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD FROM ITS BASE AND HELP TO AMPLIFY UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. THE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WILL MORE OR
LESS WASH OUT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS TO ITS EAST. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING FOR STRONG WARM ADVECTION WHICH WILL
RESULT IN H85 TEMPS INCREASING FROM AROUND +14 ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS MORNING TO +18 OR BETTER BY TONIGHT. A VERY WARM DAY IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S. AN
INITIALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ALLOWING A LAKE BREEZE TO SET UP WHICH WILL BRING
SOME COOLING TO IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE AREAS AND A BIT FURTHER INLAND
ACROSS LAKE COUNTY ILLINOIS. DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THESE AREAS WILL
LIKELY STILL BE QUITE WARM GIVEN THE WARM START TO THE DAY...BUT
LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL LIKELY CUT BACK INTO THE 70S IF NOT A BIT
COOLER IN SPOTS. AN INFLUX OF BETTER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATER
TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE IT
WILL BE INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MORE SO THIS
EVENING. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY DO NOT LOOK GREAT BUT WATER
VAPOR SHOWS SEVERAL SUBTLE WAVES MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE INFLUX OF
BETTER THETA-E AIR AND WARM ASCENT ALREADY IN PLACE...AS WELL AS
LITTLE IF ANY CAPPING BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE NUMBER OF
LARGER SCALE FACTORS SUPPORTING CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THE AREA OF
SLIGHT POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS NOTED ABOVE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PUSH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD ACROSS IOWA AND MINNESOTA AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES
ACROSS THAT AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA/IOWA/MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND ORGANIZE INTO
AN MCS BY EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS IOWA AND INTO
FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT BRINGING A STEADY FEED OF MOISTURE
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. 850-300 MB
THICKNESS RIDGE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA TO WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION
OF THE THICKNESS GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS.
THIS AND THE SHIFTING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
ORIENTATION SHIFTING THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUPPORT AN
OVERALL EAST TO SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF WHATEVER MCS RESULTS FROM THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. THIS MAY BE MANIFESTED AS MORE OF A
SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT VS. STORM MOTION GIVEN THAT BETTER MOISTURE
WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION...BACKWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS
SUPPORT THIS SOUTHWARD EXPANSION IDEA. HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWS A
MYRIAD OF SOLUTIONS SO AT THIS TIME RANGE PREFER TO LEAN MORE
HEAVILY ON THE LARGER SCALE ELEMENTS AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS. THIS
THINKING SUPPORTS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION BEING ACROSS WISCONSIN BUT
SEE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME SORT OF A SOUTHWARD
EXPANSION/PROPAGATION OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER QUESTION BEING HOW FAR
SOUTH AS WELL AS TIMING. WILL TWEAK POPS FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING TO SHOW A SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE OF POPS GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80. HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED TUESDAY. WHATEVER CONVECTION IS AROUND IN THE MORNING
WILL LIKELY END AND IT APPEARS THAT THE REST OF TUESDAY MAY BE DRY
WITH THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THIS MAY ALSO
BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT PLAYS OUT TUESDAY MORNING IN TERMS OF LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES ETC. THAT MAY BE ABLE TO TRIGGER ISOLD/SCATTERED
CONVECTION LATER TUESDAY AS WE WILL STILL BE UNSTABLE. UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/WI LATER TUESDAY MAY BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SO A LAKE BREEZE LOOKS UNLIKELY SO EVEN LAKESHORE AREAS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80...WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 ELSEWHERE WITH A
RATHER STICKY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT STRETCHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE TO THE WEST AS WELL SO IMPULSES
ARE LIKELY TO EMANATE NORTHEASTWARD UP THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
DRIVE WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED WEDNESDAY BUT LESS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ACROSS A LARGER AREA...ESPECIALLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ANY SUBTLE UPPER WAVES. THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THURSDAY
TAKING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT ALONG...WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THE ORIGINAL
STATIONARY BOUNDARY MAY SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS THIS
OCCURS SO CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY DRIVING
CONVECTION FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE ANOTHER SITUATION
WHERE THE LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING SO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LIMITED.
THE UPPER LOW MAY THEN MOVE EASTWARD BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE INTO
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
BUT MUCH OF THE BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL NEED TO BE BETTER
IDENTIFIED AT A SHORTER TIME RANGE AS THE LOCATION OF KEY FEATURES
WILL LARGELY DRIVE THE OUTCOME. WITH A MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE LESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AT TIMES. TEMPS
LOOK TO MODERATE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH COOLER TEMPS MORE
LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE COOL FRONT
PASSES.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE TURNING WINDS EASTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* CHANCES FOR TSRA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH RES
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THE BOUNDARY PUSHING INLAND TO NEAR ORD/MDW...BUT
THE GRADIENT IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS PICKING BACK UP. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE LAKE BREEZE
BACK TOWARDS THE LAKE FRONT...AND IT MAY NOT EVEN MAKE THE TERMINALS
AT ALL. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS
TODAY WILL MIX BACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FORMING MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT NEAR THE FRONT. MODERATE INSTABILITY DOES DEVELOP
LOCALLY AND IT IS FEASIBLE THAT ANY OUTFLOW THAT SINKS SOUTH FROM
THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WISCONSIN COULD KICK OFF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CLOSE TO THE TERMINALS TOMORROW EVENING. WILL ADD A
PROB30 FOR TSRA FOR NOW. CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
COMPLEX IS MEDIUM TO HIGH...BUT SPECIFICS ON THE EVOLUTION AND THE
SOUTHWARD EXTENT ARE LOWER.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE PUSHING ACROSS TERMINALS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA NORTH OF THE TERMINALS...LOW-MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH TO THE TERMINALS.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING TSRA AND THEN A CHANCE AGAIN
LATE IN THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...CHANCES OF PERIODIC TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
250 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS ONTARIO LIFTING
A WARM FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE LAKE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST TO THE
MARITIME PROVINCES LATE TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY
SAG BACK SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK
NORTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. EACH DAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT INCLUDING OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME LARGER
THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEXES THAT WILL CREATE A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN THE
WIND FIELD. IN ADDITION...MID 60 AND EVEN 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG FORMING
OVER THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
330 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night
Summer weather to prevail this week as temperatures warm into the
upper 80s and lower 90s through Thu with moist dewpoints in the
upper 60s and lower 70s. 00Z models have trended further north
with convection chances through Wed with strong upper level ridge
building across the eastern states into Wed.
Radar mosaic shows isolated showers and thunderstorms developing
past few hours south of I-72 with weakening front moving se into
central IL and short wave to push east into central/southern IN
during the morning. Airmass is unstable today especially this
afternoon and feel this to support more redevelopment of isolated
convection from I-72 south. HRRR and RAP suggests this
redevelopment this afternoon over central and southern counties.
Highs in the upper 80s to near 90F and humid dewpoints in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.
Convection chances then shift into IA/WI and northern IL tonight
through Wed with stronger focus of low level jet and closer to
upper level lows over northern tier states. SPC has slight risk nw
of Knox and Stark counties tonight and keeps slight risk north of
I-88 on Tue & Tue night. Carried just slight chance of convection
over areas north of Peoria tonight through Wed morning. Then
increase convection chances Wed afternoon and Wed night and
especially Thu into Fri with strong upper level low moving into
the northern plains and upper MS river valley and pushing a front
back south late this week. SPC has slight risk of severe storms
late Wed afternoon and Wed night north of Peoria over Knox, Stark
and Marshall counties. Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s
through Thu and then starts cooling off a bit late this week and
into the weekend.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday
Stayed close to Allblend for weather from Thu through Sunday with
daily chances of showers and thunderstorms, though perhaps a break
around Sat night. Highs still in the 80s this weekend and then cooler
on Monday.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1115 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2014
Not much change from previous thinking with the main concerns this
period mainly revolving around the potential for low VFR cigs later
tonight into Monday morning, possibly lowering briefly to MVFR. VAD
wind profiles indicating winds gradually backing more into a
southerly direction, especially over Missouri which should help to
bring the lower VFR cloud deck, currently over Mo, northeast into
our area by morning. The threat for some MVFR fog in the 09z-13z
time frame is still there as temp/dew point spreads decrease
overnight. Forecast soundings continue to show cumulus development
by late morning with cloud bases in the 3500-4500 foot range. Light
south to southwest winds tonight will be more southerly on Monday
with speeds of 10 to 15 kts.
Smith
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
232 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2014
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
Models this morning remain in good agreement with warm mid level
temperatures spreading into western Kansas early this morning.
700mb temperatures are forecast to be around +14c by late morning.
Under this warm mid layer air...a dryline which will be located
near the Colorado border at 12z Monday will move east and by 18z
is currently forecast to be located near Dodge City where it is
expected to become nearly stationary. The 850mb to 700mb
temperatures from the NAM and GFS indicate a decent warming trend
across western Kansas today. Net 24hour temperature change in
850mb temperatures from 00z Monday to 00z Tuesday is 6c to near
10c, and 700mb temperature change varied from 4c to 6c. Using this
as a guide for highs the previous forecast still looks on track
with highs in the mid 90s to near 100. The warmer temperatures
will be just west of the dryline.
Also west of this dryline the dewpoints will fall back into the
20 to 25 degree range as gusty southwest winds develop. Based on
expected highs the afternoon relative humidity values will bottom
out near 10 percent for several hours west of line from near
Liberal to Ness City. This will enhance the fire danger levels,
however given the greening of fuels from the recent rains and
based on latest updated fuel status will not issue a red flag
warning despite the gusty winds and low relative humidities.
Ahead/east of this dryline the surface dewpoints are still
expected be in the upper 60s to lower 70s as southerly wind
increase to around 30 mph by late morning as stronger winds in the
boundary layer start to mix down to the surface. Based on the mean
mix layer winds from the NAM and GFS the winds are expected to
approach/meet wind advisory criteria by late morning and then
continue through the remainder of the day.
NAM Cape values greater than 2000 j/kg are forecast by late day.
0-6km shear currently is expected to be 30 to 35 knots. Based on
this can not completely able to rule out a few strong or
marginally thunderstorms late today, however given the warm mid
level temperatures, weak cin from the forecast model soundings at
00z Tuesday, and lack of any significant forcing current
confidence of late day/evening convection is not very highs along
the dryline. At this time am leaning against inserting a any
isolated thunderstorms along the dryline late this afternoon and
early evening as the dryline. Will however take a closer look at
the ARW,NMM and 06z NAM and adjust this if needed.
Retreating dryline overnight will allow winds to back to the
southeast overnight for much of western Kansas and dewpoints to
rise back into the 60s. Based on expected wind speeds and
increasing dewpoints the lows tonight in the upper 60s to lower
70s still appears reasonable.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
Medium range models indicate a southwesterly flow aloft prevailing
across the Western High Plains through mid week. Meanwhile, a strong
upper level trough of low pressure across the Pacific Northwest will
turn easterly into the Northern Rockies Tuesday. Even with ample
moisture present across central and portions of western Kansas,
fairly dry conditions are expected to continue early in the period
due to a weakening flow aloft. Thunderstorms will be possible
Wednesday as the upper level trough axis pushes further eastward
into the western Northern Plains and the Colorado Rockies while
becoming more negatively tilted. As the upper level system
approaches, an already developed dryline will begin to sharpen
generally somewhere across southwest Kansas. Although to what
degree remains uncertain, dynamic support aloft will increase as
an upper level jet exiting the approaching trough axis, lifts
northeast out of the Colorado Rockies into the Northern Plains.
Even though the bulk of the system`s focus will pass to our north,
thunderstorms will still be possible along and ahead of the dryline
late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening as the cap weakens.
Steep low/mid level lapse rates and SBCAPE values in excess of
2500 J/KG will be enough to support the potential for severe storms
across central and portions of southwest Kansas. The potential for
thunderstorms is expected to continue into Thursday for portions of
central Kansas as an attendant frontal boundary to the upper level
trough pushes southeast across the area before stalling out and
lifting back to the north.
Warmer temperatures will remain across western Kansas Tuesday as a
prevailing lee side trough of low pressure continues to influence a
southerly flow across western Kansas. Drawing warmer air northward,
the GFS/ECMWF show H85 temperatures up into the mid to upper
20s(C) across central Kansas to a little above 30C in extreme
southwest Kansas. Widespread 90s(F) are likely across central and
southwest Kansas Tuesday afternoon with near 100F possible in some
locations. Similar temperatures are likely again Wednesday with
little change expected to the overall air mass in place across the
Western High Plains. Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast
Thursday as a cold front pushes through western Kansas.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
Southeast winds at 10 to around 15knots continue overnight and
will draw more humid air into western Kansas. Given the low level
winds overnight fog is not anticipated but some scattered MVFR
status will be possible given the increasing moisture in the lower
levels. Latest HRRR also indicating this, especially in the Hays
area so will introduce a period of MVFR ceiling in status between
06 and 12z. A dryline that will be located near the Colorado
border at 12z Monday will move east early in the day. This dryline
is currently expected to be located near Hays and DDC by mid day.
west of the dryline southwest winds at around 20knots are expected.
Near and east of this dryline southerly winds at near 25 knots are
expected to develop by late morning. NAM BUFR soundings indicating
VFR conditions throughout the day Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 99 70 97 70 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 99 68 98 68 / 0 10 10 10
EHA 98 65 98 67 / 0 10 10 10
LBL 100 69 99 68 / 0 10 10 10
HYS 98 70 97 72 / 10 10 10 10
P28 97 73 96 74 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from Noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening FOR
KSZ046-064>066-077>081-086>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
133 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2014
...Updated Synopsis and short term discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
At 00z Monday a 500mb trough was located along western United
States with a +120kt upper level jet streak located west of the
upper level trough just off the northwest United States Coast. A
southwest flow extended from the based of the upper level trough
into the Central Plains with a subtle upper level disturbance
embedded in this flow. This disturbance was located near southern
California at 00z Monday. 700mb temperatures across the central
and southern Plains ranged from +7 at Topeka to +10c at Dodge City
to +12 at Amarillo and +15c at Albuquerque. 850mb temperatures
varied from +17c At North Platte to +20 at Dodge City to +25 at
Amarillo. The better 850mb moisture was located from Topeka to
Oklahoma City. At the surface a southeasterly flow was present
from central Oklahoma into southwest Kansas. Dewpoints in the
lower 70s were present across northern Oklahoma near the Kansas
border and these dewpoints were begin advected into Kansas from
the southeasterly wind.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
Models this morning remain in good agreement with warm mid level
temperatures spreading into western Kansas early this morning.
700mb temperatures are forecast to be around +14c by late morning.
Under this warm mid layer air...a dryline which will be located
near the Colorado border at 12z Monday will move east and by 18z
is currently forecast to be located near Dodge City where it is
expected to become nearly stationary. The 850mb to 700mb
temperatures from the NAM and GFS indicate a decent warming trend
across western Kansas today. Net 24hour temperature change in
850mb temperatures from 00z Monday to 00z Tuesday is 6c to near
10c, and 700mb temperature change varied from 4c to 6c. Using this
as a guide for highs the previous forecast still looks on track
with highs in the mid 90s to near 100. The warmer temperatures
will be just west of the dryline.
Also west of this dryline the dewpoints will fall back into the
20 to 25 degree range as gusty southwest winds develop. Based on
expected highs the afternoon relative humidity values will bottom
out near 10 percent for several hours west of line from near
Liberal to Ness City. This will enhance the fire danger levels,
however given the greening of fuels from the recent rains and
based on latest updated fuel status will not issue a red flag
warning despite the gusty winds and low relative humidities.
Ahead/east of this dryline the surface dewpoints are still
expected be in the upper 60s to lower 70s as southerly wind
increase to around 30 mph by late morning as stronger winds in the
boundary layer start to mix down to the surface. Based on the mean
mix layer winds from the NAM and GFS the winds are expected to
approach/meet wind advisory criteria by late morning and then
continue through the remainder of the day.
NAM Cape values greater than 2000 j/kg are forecast by late day.
0-6km shear currently is expected to be 30 to 35 knots. Based on
this can not completely able to rule out a few strong or
marginally thunderstorms late today, however given the warm mid
level temperatures, weak cin from the forecast model soundings at
00z Tuesday, and lack of any significant forcing current
confidence of late day/evening convection is not very highs along
the dryline. At this time am leaning against inserting a any
isolated thunderstorms along the dryline late this afternoon and
early evening as the dryline. Will however take a closer look at
the ARW,NMM and 06z NAM and adjust this if needed.
Retreating dryline overnight will allow winds to back to the
southeast overnight for much of western Kansas and dewpoints to
rise back into the 60s. Based on expected wind speeds and
increasing dewpoints the lows tonight in the upper 60s to lower
70s still appears reasonable.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
For Tuesday into Wednesday, a Pacific Northwest upper low and trough
will slowly move east and into the Plains by late Wednesday. This
system will give a chance for showers and thunderstorms by mainly
Wednesday afternoon into the evening. Some storms may be strong to
severe ahead of a dryline and cold front with dewpoints in the 60s
and veering mid level winds. Ahead of this upper level storm system,
high temps will be rather warm and in the mid to upper 90s on
Tuesday afternoon, and low to mid 90s on Wednesday afternoon. Winds
will be gusty from the south each day at 20 to 35 mph.
For the period of Thursday into next Weekend, the upper level storm
system will move slowly east on Thursday with a possibility of
lingering storms in parts of south central Kansas. The GFS model is
the slowest with movement of the system. More scattered storms are
possible into the Weekend but the upper flow looks very weak for any
organized widespread convection. High temperatures will be a little
cooler with highs around 90 and lows in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
Southeast winds at 10 to around 15knots continue overnight and
will draw more humid air into western Kansas. Given the low level
winds overnight fog is not anticipated but some scattered MVFR
status will be possible given the increasing moisture in the lower
levels. Latest HRRR also indicating this, especially in the Hays
area so will introduce a period of MVFR ceiling in status between
06 and 12z. A dryline that will be located near the Colorado
border at 12z Monday will move east early in the day. This dryline
is currently expected to be located near Hays and DDC by mid day.
west of the dryline southwest winds at around 20knots are expected.
Near and east of this dryline southerly winds at near 25 knots are
expected to develop by late morning. NAM BUFR soundings indicating
VFR conditions throughout the day Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 99 72 96 71 / 10 10 10 20
GCK 98 69 97 69 / 0 10 10 10
EHA 97 67 97 68 / 0 10 10 10
LBL 99 69 98 69 / 10 10 10 20
HYS 97 71 96 73 / 10 10 10 10
P28 97 73 95 75 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1224 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2014
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
Tonight:
A pretty quiet night is expected across the forecast area. The exception
to this is across Barber county where there is a slight chance of overnight
thunderstorms. There is enough mu cape (3500 J/kg), fairly steep 700-500-hPa
lapse rates of 6.7 C/km, and 40 kt of effective shear to produce marginally
severe hail should a storm develop. The overall trend, particularly
with the tail end of the HRRR, is that activity will be E/SE of Barber
county, though.
Otherwise, elsewhere will see dry conditions with lows in the 60s/70s
and southerly winds through the overnight.
Tomorrow:
Hot! Lee troughing will strengthen tomorrow with SSW becoming breezy
to low end wind advisory. Gone with the CON MOS for wind speeds for now
as the mixed down procedure winds look too high. Something to be watched
if an advisory is needed or not. Marginal event though.
Highs will be in the upper 90s. Didn`t want to go 100F just yet as the
recent rains might keep temps down a degree or two. There could be elevated
fire weather conditions just in terms of RH`s and wind speeds out west,
however, with the recent green up from all the MCS rains, don`t think
a headline is required. The dryline will mix east through the day and
then retreat back west tomorrow evening. The WRF-NMM core is the only
model indicating some precip, but not really keen on that for now. Will
keep pops AB 14 percent.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
For Tuesday into Wednesday, a Pacific Northwest upper low and trough
will slowly move east and into the Plains by late Wednesday. This
system will give a chance for showers and thunderstorms by mainly
Wednesday afternoon into the evening. Some storms may be strong to
severe ahead of a dryline and cold front with dewpoints in the 60s
and veering mid level winds. Ahead of this upper level storm system,
high temps will be rather warm and in the mid to upper 90s on
Tuesday afternoon, and low to mid 90s on Wednesday afternoon. Winds
will be gusty from the south each day at 20 to 35 mph.
For the period of Thursday into next Weekend, the upper level storm
system will move slowly east on Thursday with a possibility of
lingering storms in parts of south central Kansas. The GFS model is
the slowest with movement of the system. More scattered storms are
possible into the Weekend but the upper flow looks very weak for any
organized widespread convection. High temperatures will be a little
cooler with highs around 90 and lows in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
Southeast winds at 10 to around 15knots continue overnight and
will draw more humid air into western Kansas. Given the low level
winds overnight fog is not anticipated but some scattered MVFR
status will be possible given the increasing moisture in the lower
levels. Latest HRRR also indicating this, especially in the Hays
area so will introduce a period of MVFR ceiling in status between
06 and 12z. A dryline that will be located near the Colorado
border at 12z Monday will move east early in the day. This dryline
is currently expected to be located near Hays and DDC by mid day.
west of the dryline southwest winds at around 20knots are expected.
Near and east of this dryline southerly winds at near 25 knots are
expected to develop by late morning. NAM BUFR soundings indicating
VFR conditions throughout the day Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 72 96 71 92 / 10 10 20 30
GCK 69 97 69 92 / 10 10 10 20
EHA 67 97 68 93 / 10 10 10 20
LBL 69 98 69 93 / 10 10 20 30
HYS 71 96 73 91 / 10 10 10 20
P28 73 95 75 92 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1151 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
THE OVERNIGHT MCS HAS LEFT A COOLER AND CLOUDY DAY IN IT`S WAKE
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THROUGHOUT THE REST OF KANSAS SKIES
ARE CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S LOW 80S.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
TONIGHT:
THE CONCERN FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS
WANING...AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. MIXED LAYER CIN IS AROUND 200 J/KG WITH ONLY 500 J/KG CAPE AS
OF 3PM FROM SPC MESO ANALYSIS. THINK THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
DAYTIME CONVECTION AT BAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
DAYTIME RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...LATER
TONIGHT THINGS WILL CHANGE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND WITH PLENTIFUL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
OR MOVE IN FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN TIME
FRAME OF CONCERN WILL BE BETWEEN 10PM- MORNING. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED AND
GUSTY WINDS TO 60 MPH. MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MY MONDAY MORNING AND
AS SKIES CLEAR THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT.
MONDAY - WEDNESDAY:
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WARM AND WINDY. KANSAS WILL SIT
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THE GULF WIDE OPEN. AS A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS MONDAY...SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ON
MONDAY THAN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH WINDS APPROACHING THE 30 MPH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...AS FORECAST WINDS ARE JUST SKIRTING THE
CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE REGION...HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100 IN A FEW
PLACES.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE AS THE NEXT
UPPER WAVE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
THE NEXT FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE MAIN UPPER
DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT GETS CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN
FLOW AND HOVERS OVER NORTH DAKOTA/CANADA BORDER. THIS PUSHES THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MORE OF A ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW. BECAUSE OF THIS THE EXTENDED
HAS PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT. RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT OCCUR
ALL THE TIME...BUT EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS DIFFICULT WITH
THE DESCREPANCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME PERIODS
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG A
SUBTLE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS PROGGED TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE
TO A SUBTLE LLJ NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH 07-09Z. AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NORTH TONIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 09-13Z
BEFORE VFR RETURNS TO THE AREA. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 71 94 74 92 / 20 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 70 94 74 94 / 20 10 10 10
NEWTON 69 92 73 92 / 20 10 10 10
ELDORADO 69 90 73 90 / 20 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 71 92 74 90 / 30 10 10 10
RUSSELL 66 96 73 97 / 20 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 67 96 72 96 / 20 10 10 10
SALINA 69 94 75 95 / 20 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 69 93 73 93 / 20 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 71 90 73 89 / 50 10 10 10
CHANUTE 70 90 72 89 / 30 10 10 10
IOLA 69 90 72 89 / 30 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 70 89 74 89 / 50 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
334 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
A FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS DEVELOPED AND MOVED INTO MCCREARY COUNTY OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT BOTH WERE SMALL BOTH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE...AND HAVE SINCE ALMOST COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. ACCORDING TO
SATELLITE...A SMALL BAND OF CLOUDS HAVE SET UP ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
REGION JUST SE OF KY. ALONG WITH THIS BAND OF CLOUDS...SOME SPOTTY
VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES HAVE FORMED OVER THE LAST HOUR. AT THE CURRENT
RADAR AND SATELLITE TREND...EXPECT THESE SPRINKLES TO REMAIN SE OF
THE MOUNTAIN RIDGE/STATE LINE DIVIDE CAUSING LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO
OUR CWA OTHER THAN SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER OVER BELL THROUGH
LETCHER COUNTY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK. ONCE
AGAIN...UPDATED THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA FOR TEMPS...WINDS...AND DEW POINTS...TO MAKE SURE THE ONGOING
CONDITIONS ARE REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
SOME ISOLATED PULSY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO
INCREASE ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL AS CHANCES OF SPRINKLES FURTHER
NORTHWARD...COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. STILL EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS TO DIE DOWN SHORTLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO DECIDED TO UPDATE THE SKY GRIDS TO
BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND A DIMINISHING TREND INTO THE
EVENING. WENT AHEAD AND LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE
TO MAKE SURE ONGOING GRIDS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE
WELL REFLECTIVE OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF KENTUCKY WHILE A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...IS SLOWLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE EXIT OF
THE HIGH HAS ALLOWED WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO EAST
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THOUGH
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY HAS GONE PARTLY CLOUDY DUE TO
SOME HEALTHY CU DEVELOPMENT. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP DRAMATICALLY
WITH READINGS NOW IN THE MID 60S FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWA AND LOW 60S TO THE NORTH. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KTS HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY RECENTLY. ALSO RECENTLY...SOME LIGHT RETURNS HAVE
SHOWN UP ON RADAR OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT THE CONTINUING INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK. A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LIFT INTO
CENTRAL CANADA...NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AN INTO THE DAY
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO...ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN...
BUT NOT BEFORE DRAGGING THE REMAINS OF SOME ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
ITS TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER HEIGHTS LOCALLY INTO THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE STORM TRACK IS
SHUNTED EVEN FURTHER NORTH. DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE
WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME SPRINKLES AND A STRAY SHOWER
AROUND THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
BEFORE EVERYTHING CLEARS OUT INCLUDING THE BULK OF THE CU. THIS WILL
SET UP ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING INDUCED RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES...THOUGH LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF VALLEY FOG
LATE TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND DEWPOINTS
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT. FOR MONDAY...THE REMAINS OF THE
500MB TROUGH...SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS...AND A WEAKENING FRONT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY...
MAINLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF BY
EVENING AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT...INTO THE EVENING. MORE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUDS ON MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALL CATEGORY ALONG WITH ANY FOG
CONFINED TO JUST THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS.
ONCE AGAIN STARTED WITH THE BCCONSSHORT FOR T/TD AND WINDS THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE CONTINUING WITH BCCONSALL. DID MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE VALLEY AND RIDGE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT MONDAY NIGHT...DUE TO SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR
POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE KEPT THEM LOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED
REGARDING THE OVEALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN...TIMING OF WEATHER SYSTEM
PASSAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...AND THE
EVOLUTION...TIMING...AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WITH SAID
WEATHER SYSTEMS. THAT ALL BEING SAID...THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. UNSTABLE AIR AND MEAGER MOISTURE OFF THE
GULF OF MEXICO COULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO EASTERN KENTUCKY AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN WILL
SLOWLY EVOLVE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE MOISTURE FLUX
OFF THE GULF SLOWLY INCREASES. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK COULD FEATURE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS
PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IT
APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
TIME FRAME WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORED TIME FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS...WITH A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WX THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FRONT BRUSHES BY.
HAVE ADDED A PREVAILING VCTS FOR THIS FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ON AT JKL
AND SJS WHILE LEAVING OUT OF THE OTHER SITES FOR NOW. EXPECT ANY FOG
TONIGHT TO BE CONFINED TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND LEAVE THE TAF SITES
UNBLEMISHED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF/JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
539 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE NEGATIVE TILT
SHORTWAVE THAT LIFTED THRU THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY YESTERDAY
HAS BECOME AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING MID LEVEL LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO
EARLY THIS MORNING. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MANAGED
TO SPARK A FEW -SHRA OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/FAR WRN UPPER MI FROM
AROUND KIWD TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...AS EXPECTED SKIES HAVE LARGELY CLEARED ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AS MUCH DRIER AIR...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS...HAS ADVECTED
INTO THE AREA. AT THE VERY LOW-LEVELS...YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL AND
DIMINISHING WINDS UNDERNEATH THE MID LEVEL DRYING HAVE RESULTED IN
FOG FORMATION OVER A GOOD PORTION OF CNTRL UPPER MI.
WITH DECENT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC (KMQT RADAR SHOWS 25KT SW WINDS
AT 500FT AGL)...FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISPERSE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HRS
AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER...NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...PATCHY FOG MAY PLAGUE
LAKESIDE LOCATIONS INTO THE AFTN HRS. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A
MAINLY SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER DAY IS SHAPING UP. FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A DEEP MIXING DAY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER BUILDING TO TOWARD
750MB. THIS YIELDS MAX TEMPS INTO 80-85 RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH PREVAILING S/SW
WINDS. A NUMBER OF HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THIS IS INCREASINGLY INDICATED BY HOURLY
RUC13 MODEL RUNS. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO
STILL ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO GET IN ON THE
WARMTH TODAY AS WELL. DEEP MIXING WILL AID IN LOWERING DWPTS THIS
AFTN. INCORPORATED MIXED LAYER DWPTS INTO THE FCST WHICH RESULTS IN
DWPTS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR...AND THIS PUTS
MIN RH DOWN AROUND 30PCT. THE DEEP MIXING SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY
WINDS INTO THE 20-30MPH RANGE FOR A TIME WHERE RH IS LOWEST.
FORTUNATELY...YESTERDAYS RAINFALL AND NEAR SATURATED SFC LAYER/DEW
FORMATION OVERNIGHT WILL MITIGATE SOME OF THE FIRE WX CONCERNS. ONE
LAST ISSUE FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION. GFS
SHOWS MLCAPE UPWARDS OF AROUND 500J/KG OVER ROUGHLY THE W HALF TODAY
WHILE THE NAM IS BIT HIGHER TO 500-900J/KG. THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION (A SIMPLE LOOK AT K INDEX SHOWS
VALUES UP TO AROUND 30 ON THE GFS AND A LITTLE HIGHER WITH THE NAM).
HOWEVER...GIVEN 40-60M HEIGHT RISES AT 500MB TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING APPROACHING...WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY PCPN MENTION.
AS OPPOSED TO PREVIOUS DAYS MODEL RUNS...MOST MODELS NOW SHOW A DRY
DAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE DRY FCST. THAT
SAID...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AS THAT COULD TRIGGER ISOLD LATE AFTN CONVECTION.
TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS.
SIGNIFICANT BUILD UP OF INSTABILITY TODAY COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
JET DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONG CONVECTION SOMEWHERE OVER NE/SD/IA/SRN MN LATER THIS AFTN.
THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GROW INTO AN MCS TONIGHT THAT WILL RIDE
ENE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ENE TRACKING SHORTWAVE. WHILE SVR THREAT
SHOULD PASS S OF THE FCST AREA CLOSER TO MAX INSTABILITY AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR STRONGER STORMS
TO SLIP INTO SRN UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW...PREFER THE LOOK OF
THE 00Z REGIONAL GEM WITH RESPECT TO EXPECTED MCS
DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT. THIS MODEL BRINGS SHRA/TSRA INTO MAINLY
CNTRL/ERN UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGH RES NAM WINDOW IS SIMILAR
TO THE GEM THOUGH A BIT FARTHER N THAN THE GEM. BEING ON THE NRN END
OF THE MCS...HVY RAINFALL MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...BUT
THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION/STRUCTURE OF THE MCS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
SMALL DISTURBANCES WILL PLAGUE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL
REMAIN DIFFICULT TO TIME. THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE
NEAR THE WI BORDER.
WINDS TUESDAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10KTS...BUT THE DIRECTION IS STILL
IN QUESTION. THIS IN BECAUSE OF THE VARIED PLACEMENT OF A WEAK SFC
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE 16/00Z NAM PLACES THIS FEATURE
OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AT 12Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE CANADIAN IS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.P....AND THE 15/12Z ECMWF IS APPROX 160MI S OF
THE NAM. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND...AND LIKE AS STATED ABOVE
WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10KTS...SO DO NOT EXPECT TOO MANY PROBLEMS
WITH THIS SOLUTION BEFORE THE RIDGE PUSHES IN FROM THE NW IN THE
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT.
OVERALL...LOOK FOR A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
THE 500MB RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST W OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING...AS THE SFC RIDGE STRENGTHENS IT/S HOLD OVER UPPER
MI. EXPECT E-NE WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING FOG ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE FROM N TO S
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WX WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF AND ON
MAINLY NEAR THE WI BORDER...CLOSER TO THE BETTER MOISTURE.
WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...IN RESPONSE TO
THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE E
HALF OF ONTARIO AND THE NEARING LOW ACROSS NE AND SD. STILL...THE E
FLOW SHOULD STILL KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH MORE THAN THE MID 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AS 850MB TEMPS LINGER BETWEEN 10-13C. THE
SFC LOW OVER S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT WITH A SLIGHT E PUSH AS THE
500MB WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS AT 00Z FRIDAY KICKS SLIGHTLY NNE TOWARD
MN.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP /AT LEAST W AND CENTRAL/
WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT E AREAS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FCST
FRIDAY...IF RAIN/CLOUDS HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE FCST SOLUTIONS IS SIGNIFICANT FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY LARGE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MOVING IN BEHIND A FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MI. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS LINGERED OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI SO THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AT KSAW AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. ALTHOUGH
WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE SW MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE
FOG...EXPECT THE LOWER CIGS TO LINGER UNTIL DAYTIME MIXING TAKES
OVER THIS MORNING. SOME FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED AT KCMX...BUT EXPECT
THIS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SW WINDS WILL PROVIDE
SOME MIXING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD OVERNIGHT AS S TO SW
WINDS KEEP BETTER MIXING GOING THERE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY INTO THE EVENING HRS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS. THESE LIGHTER WINDS...MOSTLY UNDER 20KT...WILL
CONTINUE THRU TUE. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A CLUSTER OF
SHRA/TSTMS PASSING THRU WI AND AT LEAST PARTS OF UPPER MI LATE
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...THERE MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS FOR A TIME
LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. FROM LATE TUE THRU FRI...LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL BECOME SITUATED BTWN A HUDSON BAY HIGH AND A LOW PRES TROF
SLOWLY ADVANCING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY
WINDS LATER TUE THRU FRI. WHILE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER
20KT...THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
WRN PART OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MN N SHORE DUE TO
COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. OTHERWISE...WINDS OVERALL COULD BE
STRONGER DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRES AND LOW PRES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
101 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
00Z SOUNDING FROM DTX REVEALED A VERY DRY AND STABLE PROFILE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MI. EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE AS THEY MOVE EAST. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND SOME MODEST INSTABILITY...THE BEST FORCING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ACROSS INDIANA THAT WILL BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR THE DETROIT
AREA TAFS. OTHERWISE...THE MOISTURE WILL BRING JUST VFR CIGS TO THE
TAF CITES INTO THE MORNING HOURS. FROM 13Z-17Z ENOUGH DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TO BRING SCATTERED SKIES THROUGH THE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW...BEST POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. THAT IS ALSO WHEN CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND THE 5000 FEET.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS AT 5000 FEET BETWEEN 09Z AND
16Z.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 902 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND SOUTHERN LAKE
MI HAVE STRUGGLED TO HOLD TOGETHER WHILE MOVING EAST. NOT TOO
SURPRISING GIVING THE FORCING PEELING OFF TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE GREAT LAKES. 00Z DTX SOUNDING WAS STILL
VERY DRY AND HAD A STRONG CAP BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MBS. IT WILL
TAKE QUITE A BIT OF ADVECTION TO OVERCOME THAT...AND THIS SYSTEM
DOES NOT HAVE THAT. WILL LOWER POPS TO SCATTERED/CHANCE. EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCE TO BE NEAR TRI CITIES WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
INFLUENCE. THERE IS A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WAS NEAR THE IN/IL
BOARDER AND WILL GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR FAR SE LOWER.
ALSO WITH THE GIVEN ATMOSPHERE...WILL LOWER THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ALL OF THE AFTERNOON UPDATED HI RES MODELS WERE IN
LINE WITH THIS IDEA AS WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 407 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
A LINE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN ALONG A CONVERGENT STREAMLINE. THIS
CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH A ZONE OF ENHANCED
ABSOLUTE VORTICITY IN THE LATEST RUC OUTPUT. THE CONVERGENCE
STREAMER AND RIBBON OF FORCING IS TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
MIDLEVEL JET STRUCTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE SYNOPTIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE ENHANCED LINE OF CONVERGENCE OR MIDLEVEL
INFLECTION AXIS TO CAST OFF...SHEDDING DUE EASTWARD TONIGHT AS THE
LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO. THE TONIGHT PERIOD THEN
DISTILLS DOWN TO WHAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AXIS TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA. WHAT IS
COMPLICATING THIS SETUP IS THE VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE 6-12 KFT LAYER. COMBINE
THIS STABLE LAYER WITH A VERY DRY NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF 30 DEGREES...AND THE SUSPICION
IS MUCH OF THE LIFT WILL GO INTO SATURATING THE COLUMN. THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE SHOWING A REAL STRUGGLE WITH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. PROBABLY THE BEST THING GOING FOR THE SETUP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RIBBON OF MOISTURE
TO ALIGN WITH THE MEAN FLOW LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS BY NO MEANS AN
ENDORSEMENT...MORE OF A COMMENT ON THE LOW CONFIDENCE/HIGH
UNCERTAINTY. FOR THOSE REASONS...WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM THE
INHERITED POP GRIDS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DECIDE ON THIS BEING A
SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS SHOWER TYPE EVENT. TIME OF YEAR AND CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY REQUIRES A THUNDER MENTION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO SIGNAL
FOR A HIGH AMOUNT OF EXPECTED LIGHTNING. HRRR ALONG WITH 12Z WRF-NMM
MOVED TIMING UP A HAIR...LOOKING AT TIME WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION
MAINLY BETWEEN 3-9Z.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
DEFINED MOISTURE PLUME ATTENDANT TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
EASE SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY MORNING AS SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS STREAM
BY TO THE NORTH. OVERALL TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THESE FEATURES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE WILL REMAIN A WINDOW EARLY IN THE DAY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST OF A
HOWELL TO SANDUSKY LINE. MORE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN
BY AFTERNOON WITHIN A BACKGROUND OF WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL
GREATLY LIMIT THE PROSPECTS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. A WELL MIXED AND DRYING 800-925 MB LAYER
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RESPOND
ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS OF LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AREAWIDE.
RENEWED STRENGTHENING OF THE DOWNSTREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SEND
THE EXISTING HIGHER THETA-E AIR MASS BACK NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
SE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL
SLOPE WILL SUPPORT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION. THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. IN ADDITION...POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL MAINTENANCE AND
DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WILL REQUIRE ATTENTION...12Z MODEL SUITE PROVIDING A MIXED
SIGNAL ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO ENTER A PORTION OF THE
AREA.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF ANY MCS/MCV REMNANTS PLAY A DEFINITIVE
ROLE IN DEFINING THE PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION ON INTO TUESDAY. A
MORE SIZABLE CLOUD/RAIN LADEN COMPLEX ARRIVING EARLY IN THE DAY
COULD DAMPEN/DELAY THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. CONVERSELY...A
LATE DAY ARRIVAL COULD BE OPPORTUNE FOR ANCHORING A MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE EPISODE. THE COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOME
INCREASE IN THE UPPER HEIGHT FIELD WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS OF UPPER
80S...ABSENT OF A DISRUPTION OF THE HEATING CYCLE BY EARLY DAY
ACTIVITY.
EXTENDED FORECAST WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
MONDAY/TUESDAY CONVECTION. MODELS STILL ADVERTISING A BOUNDARY
SETTING UP OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS. WITH THAT...THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUAL
CHANCE FOR RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
MARINE...
A GUSTY SOUTHEAST WIND THROUGH THE EVENING PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH. GUSTS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS GIVEN THE
HIGHER DEGREE OF STABILITY OVER THE LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL
BRING WITH IT A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO MID WEEK.
THIS FRONT MAY TRIGGER SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MID WEEK PERIOD. SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....RBP
UPDATE.......RBP
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR/SS
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
331 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS TRYING TO INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA
ON THE NOSE OF A 45-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH IS ALSO
COINCIDENT WITH THE INCREASE OF GULF MOISTURE AS THETAE ADVECTION
CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH DAYBREAK AND BECOME A
CLUSTER OF POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD HAVE SOME
LARGE HAIL YET THIS MORNING. RAP CONTINUES TO MOVE THIS INTO
PRIMARILY NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT AS DAYTIME
HEATING BEGINS AFTER SUNRISE...COULD SEE A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL HAVE UP TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF STORMS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...BUT JUST 20
TO 30 PERCENT SOUTHWARD ACROSS REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A PSEUDO WARM WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW...WHICH IS ALSO PRIMARILY THE LEADING EDGE
OF UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS THAT WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TODAY. H85 DEWPOINT MOISTURE ALSO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASES
THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN HIGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...
COMBINED WITH DEEP BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. AFTER THE MORNING
ACTIVITY...THERE MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO BREAK...WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON THAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. BY THEN...THE REAL WARM FRONT COULD BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH VERY HIGH
INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES FROM 2000-4000 J/KG SHOULD ALLOW FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL TO DEVELOP WITHIN SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BELIEVE THE REAL TORNADO THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE IN OUR FAR
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT SAY BETWEEN KOMA
AND SUX...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SOUTHWARD FROM THE FRONT. WHATEVER DEVELOPS
WOULD PROBABLY MOSTLY BE OVER BY 06Z...WITH FOCUS SHIFTING EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY THEN.
SPC DOES HAVE THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
HAVE NO DOUBT WE`LL HAVE WATCHES ISSUED AT SOME POINT. COULD SEE A
WATCH YET THIS MORNING FOR HAIL THAT MIGHT CLIP PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...THEN ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREAFTER...WE`RE LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF HOT AND HUMID DAYS FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE LOWER/MID 90S TUESDAY...AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...SHOULD SEE
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. AND WHILE THIS IS
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...IT WILL BE THE FIRST REALLY HOT/HUMID
DAY WE`VE EXPERIENCED THIS YEAR. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
WILL NOT OFFER MUCH COOLING EITHER.
THE SREF AND GFS DO HINT AT ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY EVENING...
BUT BELIEVE WE WILL BE EFFECTIVELY CAPPED WITH H70 TEMPS OF +11
TO +12 ACROSS THE AREA...THUS WILL LEAVE IT DRY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MUGGY CONDITIONS AND LOWS ONLY IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.
WEDNESDAY IS ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND JUST
AS HUMID AS TUESDAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AGAIN IN THE UPPER
90S. THERE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL
HOLD OFF IN OUR AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FEEL THAT SREF MAY
BE TOO QUICK ON DEVELOPMENT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING IN ANOTHER GOOD
CHANCE OF STORMS WITH 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE...WHICH PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND EAST/OUT OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WAVE MATERIALIZES ON THE GFS BY FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS GENERALLY DRY...SO
CONFIDENCE THAT FAR OUT IS TYPICALLY LOW. WILL OPT FOR A DRY
FORECAST SATURDAY...BUT MODELS DO HINT AT ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IN
THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL ON TAP TO RETURN TO ERN NEBRASKA
LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SRLY WINDS INCREASE. THIS IN TURN COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. MENTION WAS MAINTAINED AT KLNK AND KOFK WHERE
CHANCES APPEARED SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN KOMA. IN ADDITION AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS...MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP/ADVECT OVER
THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OR EVEN AT WHAT FLIGHT LEVEL
EVENTUAL CIGS END UP IS LOW. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS CONDITIONS BECOME EVEN
MORE UNSTABLE AND A WARM FRONT SETS UP OVER THE NERN NEBR/WRN IA
VICINITY. EXPECT CONCENTRATION PROBABLY IN THAT AREA AND LOCATIONS
JUST NORTH WITH KOFK PROBABLY MORE UNDER THE GUN THAN KOMA AND
EVEN MORE SO THAN KLNK.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
349 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH THE THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA TODAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH GOOD SOLAR TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMPS
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SOUTH. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NORTH
ON 20 TO 30KT 850MB JET AS PWATS GO FROM AROUND 0.75" AT 12Z TO
1.5" BY 21Z. THIS INCREASE OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDING ALONG IN THE 500MB SW FLOW SHOULD INITIATE CONVECTION IN C
SD EARLY THIS AFTN...IDEA REINFORCED BY CURRENT RAP AND HRRR RUNS.
ML CAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG ALONG THE SD ND BORDER AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KTS SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE. HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES REMAINS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN...AS THE MOISTURE SOURCE MAYBE CUT OFF FROM THE EXPECTED
CONVECTION ACROSS E SD AND S MN.
THE CHC FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA ON TUESDAY AS INSTABILITY/MOISTURE PERSIST UNDER THE
SW FLOW AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN THEIR SLIGHT RISK ON THE DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...500MB RIDGING PUSHES BRIEFLY INTO
THE AREA MAKING WEDNESDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS 850 TEMPS
APPROACH 20C. BY WEDNESDAY PM THE 500MB UPPER LOW WORKS CLOSER TO
THE FA WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BRING A BAND OF PCPN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN BULK SHEAR VALUES
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO BE
SEVERE...AREA IN THE SLIGHT RISK ON SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION TO START THE PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS/GEM/DGEX
PROPAGATE THIS FEATURE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
PRECIP ON THURSDAY...BUT LESS CERTAINTY FRIDAY-SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW PROPAGATES
EASTWARD. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL CLEAR OFF ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SHOULD SEE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL
AFTERNOON WHEN CLOUDS THICKEN BUT IN VFR RANGE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
339 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AT 07Z...LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S.. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS TIGHTER THAN
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AND WIND SPEEDS WERE A BIT HIGHER. CLOUD COVER
IS ALSO MORE PREVALENT AND TEMPS ARE WARMER. AT 850 MB...THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO WESTERN
MISSOURI. 850 TEMPS WERE BETWEEN 18-20 C. A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. AT 500 MB...A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDED FROM A WEAK S/WV OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO ABOUT
LAREDO. AT 250 MB...WINDS DID NOT SHOW THE SPLITTING STRUCTURE AS
ADVERTISED YESTERDAY. THE GFS AND NAM STILL CONT TO SHOW A
SPLITTING JET DEVELOPING LATER TODAY WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A
ZONAL FLOW. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.5-1.6 INCHES
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S. A SUBTLE CAP WAS NOTED
AROUND 700 MB AND THE SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY ABOVE 700 MB. THINK
SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. STILL CONCERNED THAT THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TODAY. THE RAP13 AND HRRR ARE BOTH
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TODAY BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO RAISE POPS. WILL KEEP 20 POPS IN PLACE TODAY.
ON TUESDAY...THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING TO 1.9 INCHES. CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S
WITH DRY AIR AGAIN NOTED IN THE SOUNDING. THE GFS AND NAM BRING A
WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
WITH DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB...CAN`T GO MUCH HIGHER THAN 20 POPS FOR
NOW. PWATS REMAIN AROUND 1.80 INCHES ON WED WITH WEAK CAPPING
NOTED AT 700 MB AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING AT 600 MB AND ABOVE. WILL
AGAIN JUST CARRY 20 POPS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO TEXAS ON THURSDAY-SUNDAY.
850 TEMPS STILL WARM FROM 16 C TO 19 C BUT 500 HEIGHTS SHOW ONLY A
MINOR INCREASE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FCST AND SUBTLE WARMING
TREND. 43
&&
.MARINE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS THIS WEEK. CAUTION
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS
THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM SHOULD PERSIST AS WELL
THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
PERIODS.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 93 76 92 75 91 / 20 10 20 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 93 78 91 78 91 / 20 10 20 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 89 80 88 80 88 / 20 20 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1113 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS...WITH CEILINGS AROUND 1500 FEET...WILL SPREAD
NORTH IN THE WACO AREA AROUND 08Z AND INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND
08Z. THE CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING /15-17Z/. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS
EXPECTED 17Z MONDAY THROUGH 01Z TUESDAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
BACK NORTH ONCE AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT /AFTER 08Z TUESDAY/.
58
&&
.UPDATE...
SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
FORMED BETWEEN ANDREWS...SWEETWATER AND OZONA ARE SPREADING EAST
INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE WINDOW HAS CLOSED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE ONLY CHANGES MADE WERE TO REMOVE
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS EVENINGS FORECAST
AND TO ADJUST THE HOURLY GRIDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
58
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014/
AN 18Z AIRCRAFT SOUNDING FROM DALLAS LOVE FIELD OBSERVED A
SUBSTANTIAL CAP IN PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS...DESPITE TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S WITH DEW POINTS HOVERING AROUND 70 DEGREES.
OBSERVED SURFACE BASED CAPE WAS JUST OVER 1000 J/KG ON THIS RAOB
AND THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WAS AROUND 150 J/KG. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH VERY LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT. LOOPING THROUGH THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SUBTLE WAVES WERE EVIDENT IN THIS STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD...INDICATIVE OF A STABLE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE CLOUD LEVEL
(LCL). TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT...THINK THAT OBSERVATIONAL
EVIDENCE IS POINTING TO THE DALLAS LOVE FIELD SOUNDING BEING
FAIRLY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AN EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGEST NO
SIGNIFICANT MECHANISMS IN THE CWA TO PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT.
AS A RESULT...THINK THAT THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON ARE VERY SMALL.
19Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED CUMULUS
FIELD DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...IN AN AXIS OF GREATER
INSTABILITY PER LOCALLY CALCULATED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AND SPC`S
SFCOA. WHILE THERE WAS LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED IN
THIS CU FIELD AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION...THE CONGESTED AND
LINEAR APPEARANCE OF THE CLOUDS SUGGESTS A LOCAL DEEPENING OF THE
LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE LINE
LOCATED FROM VERNON SOUTH TO JUST EAST OF SWEETWATER. THE 17Z
HRRR MODEL REALLY PICKS UP ON THIS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE AND
INITIATES POCKETS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS LINE BY 22Z...OR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS PANS OUT...STORMS WILL INITIATE
TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER WINDS ALOFT WOULD TEND TO STEER
THESE STORMS EAST. WINDS ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE FAIRLY
WEAK...SO ANY EASTWARD STORM MOTION WOULD TEND TO BE SLOW...ON THE
ORDER OF 15 MPH OR SO.
EVEN IF STORMS DEVELOP AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS...THERE IS NO
GUARANTEE THAT THEY WILL ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO MOVE EAST INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING. STORM MOTION IS DEPENDENT NOT JUST UPON
STEERING WINDS ALOFT...BUT IS ALSO DEPENDENT UPON THE DIRECTION
THAT NEW UPDRAFTS TEND TO DEVELOP ON. THIS IS REFERRED TO AS
UPDRAFT PROPAGATION...OR SIMPLY PROPAGATION. THE DIRECTION OF NEW
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT IS USUALLY LOCATED ON THE SIDE OF THE STORM
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS POINTING TOWARDS. THAT IS...IF
YOU HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...NEW UPDRAFTS
WILL TEND TO BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN EXISTING STORM. THE LATEST
SPC SFCOA INDICATED 850 MB WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 15
KTS...WHICH SHOULD DIRECT NEW UPDRAFTS...AND THE PROPAGATION OF
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...TO THE SOUTH.
WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS JUST ABOUT EQUAL TO THE
PROJECTED STORM MOTION FROM STEERING WINDS ALONE...STORMS WILL
TEND TO BUILD SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST INSTEAD OF DRIFTING EAST WITH THE
STEERING WINDS ALOFT. BECAUSE OF THIS...THINK THAT THE CHANCES OF
MULTIPLE STORMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING ARE
SMALL. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO MEANDERING OVER
LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE TO MINERAL WELLS TO
GOLDTHWAITE THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STORMS WILL KEEP RUNNING
INTO THE CAP IN PLACE OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IF THEY MOVE
EAST...SO THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE IF THEY EVER
MANAGE TO MOVE OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST. STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE THE ONLY EXPECTED HAZARDS
FROM STORMS THIS EVENING.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...EXTENDING OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY
TOMORROW MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...LEAVING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WHILE NOT OVERLY
STRONG...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT LARGE SCALE FEATURE
OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE CWA. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
SEND THE GULF COAST SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SUNSET. LEFT LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE AN UPPER LOW MOVING
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO OUT OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE NAM IS ON BOARD WITH THIS SOLUTION WITH
THE CANADIAN AND GFS HARDLY SHOWING ANY DISTURBANCE ALOFT AT ALL.
CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION AT THIS TIME AS THIS
HAS BEEN THE CONSISTENT SOLUTION FOR THE PAST 3-4 DAYS WHILE THE
GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE BEEN WAFFLING ON THE EXISTENCE OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CONSISTENCY DOES NOT EQUAL ACCURACY...BUT WHEN
DEALING WITH FORECAST MODELS AND DIFFERENCES IN DATA ASSIMILATION
AND MODEL INITIALIZATION...CONSISTENCY IS OFTEN A GOOD SIGN THAT A
MODEL HAS LOCKED ONTO SOMETHING OTHER MODELS ARE MISSING.
DID NOT RAISE POPS ABOVE 20 PERCENT AT THIS TIME AS IT WOULD BE
NICE TO SEE OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW BEFORE
FINALIZING ON ONE SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER. THE ECMWF HAS AN
OBVIOUS TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY MORNING...SO WE
SHOULD KNOW ONE WAY OR THE OTHER BY THEN HOW THIS IS GOING TO PLAY
OUT. AT ANY RATE...ASSUMING THIS UPPER LOW MOVES OVER NORTH
TEXAS...CONTINUE TO EXPECT ONLY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AS PARAMETERS
ARE POOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. KEPT HIGHS ON THE LOWER
SPECTRUM OF GUIDANCE EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS KICKING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS ACTION MAY SEND A
SQUALL LINE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO SEND A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER SQUALL LINE THAT MAY
MAKE A DIVE TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LEFT SOME LOW POPS IN OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THESE PERIODS AS A RESULT.
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SQUALL LINE
BEHAVIOR UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEXT WEEKEND...MOST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT WE WILL BE
BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NEXT WEEKEND...SO
KEPT A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS HINTING AT A
WEAK...PROBABLY CONVECTIVELY GENERATED...MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM GETTING STUCK IN THE RIDGE ALOFT AND DRIFTING AROUND OVER
NORTH TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND BRINGS A WEAK
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS BEFORE MOVING
IT NORTHEAST OVER EAST TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN EITHER
OF THESE VERY SMALL SCALE FEATURES 6-7 DAYS OUT IS LOW. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...SO DECIDED TO STICK WITH THIS DRY FORECAST AND SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME. WILL HOLD OFF ON JUMPING ON SMALL PROBABILITY
ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS UNLESS MODELS CONVERGE AND AGREE ON ONE OF
THEM IN PARTICULAR IN LATER FORECASTS.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 76 92 76 90 76 / 5 0 0 10 10
WACO, TX 75 90 74 89 74 / 5 5 0 10 10
PARIS, TX 74 88 73 88 73 / 5 0 0 5 10
DENTON, TX 75 90 74 90 75 / 5 0 0 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 75 90 76 90 75 / 5 0 0 5 10
DALLAS, TX 75 90 75 90 76 / 5 0 0 10 10
TERRELL, TX 77 92 78 91 76 / 5 0 0 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 75 88 75 88 75 / 5 5 0 20 10
TEMPLE, TX 75 89 75 89 75 / 5 5 0 20 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 73 91 72 90 73 / 10 0 0 5 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/91
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
QUIET TODAY...THEN RATHER STORMY THROUGH MID-WEEK.
UPPER FLOW ACRS THE CONUS IS QUITE STG AND PRETTY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
FOR EARLY SUMMER. THE LNGWV TROF POSN IS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...WITH RIDGING CENTERED ARND 85W. THE ERN RIDGE WL SHARPEN
AND BUILD NWWD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...CAUSING THE WRN TROF
POSN TO REFORM BACK OFFSHORE FM THE PAC NW BY NEXT WEEKEND. AS
THOSE LARGE SCALE CHANGES OCCUR...THE MAJOR SHRTWV HEADING OUT OF
THE WRN TROF WL BECOME SEPARATED FM THE MAIN WESTERLIES AND END UP
DRIFTG EWD ACRS THE NRN PLAINS AS A CLOSED UPR LOW.
THE GENERAL WSWLY UPR FLOW ACRS THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WL ALLOW A LARGE POOL OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACRS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...WITH THE FCST AREA SITTING NR
IT/S THE NERN EDGE. THAT IS A FAVORABLE LCN FOR MCS DEVELOPEMNT...
WITH REPEAT EVENTS POSSIBLE...RESULTING IN HEAVY AND POSSIBLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. PCPN CHCS LATER IN THE
PERIOD BECOME TOUGHER TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDING OF THE NRN PLAINS UPR LOW AND
UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT THE STRENGTH/AMNT LOW-LEVEL RIDGING THAT WL
EDGE INTO THE AREA AS THE ERN NOAM RIDGE SHARPENS BACK NWWD. WARM
TEMPS AND RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE FCST
PERIOD...THEN TEMPS SHOULD EDGE BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS
AND HUMIDITIES WL LIKELY BACK DOWN TOO. OF COURSE...ANY DAYS
DOMINATED BY WIDESPREAD THUNERSTORMS COULD STILL BE COOL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
LOOKS LIKE WE ARE HEADING INTO AN ACTIVE PERIOD AS GOOD PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA HAVE BEEN OUTLOOKED WITH A SLGT RISK OF SVR WX ON
THE SPC DAY 1...DAY 2...AND DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS...INCLUDING
SOME RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE. WI IS MENTIONED FOR POSSIBLE SVR
DAY 4 ALSO...THOUGH WITH THE HIGHER CRITERIA NEEDED TO BE OUTLOOKED
THAT FAR IN ADVANCE THE AREA WAS NOT FORMALLY INCLUDED. AND THAT/S
JUST THE SVR RISKS...THERE IS AT LEAST AS MUCH CONCERN ABOUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
BASIC SCENARIO WL BE FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CROSSED THE
AREA YDA TO SHIFT BACK NWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND GET STRUNG-OUT
W-E JUST S OF THE AREA. ORGANIZED SLY FLOW AT LOW-LEVELS WL FEED
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE BOUNDARY...LIKELY LEADING TO A
SERIES OF CONVECTIVE EVENTS ALONG/N OF THE FRONT. WITH AMPLE SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY...EACH EVENT WL LIKELY BEGIN AS A SERIES OF SVR
CELLS...LIKELY SUPERCELLS...BEFORE GROWING UPSCALE INTO AN MCS.
FCST ISSUES CENTER ON WHERE AND WHEN EACH ROUND OF CONVECTION WL
OCCUR. THIS IS ALSO ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE ANY INDIVIDUAL
ROUND OF STORMS COULD ALTER THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONT...SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING SUBSEQUENT ROUNDS.
TDA SHOULD BE QUIET...BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WL ALLOW TEMPS TO
BECOME QUITE WARM. THE RAP MIXED OUT DWPTS AND ALLOWED TEMPS TO
REACH THE LOW 90S WITH RATHER LOW HUMIDITIES ACRS THE AREA...BUT
WAS AN OUTLIER. WENT WITH BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE...OF
WHICH BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF TEMPS HAVE HANDS DOWN BEEN TOPS
LATELY. THAT SUGGESTED TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AND DWPTS OF MAINLY
MID-UPR 50S AS SOME MIXING OCCURS...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS ON THE RAP.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA WL INCREASE SHARPLY THIS EVENING
AS LLJ STRENTHENS AND GETS DIRECTED INTO WI. THE INITIAL MORE
CELLULAR STORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR W...WITH MCS DEVELOPING AND HEADING
EWD OVERNIGHT. MANY OF THE MODELS TAKE THE CORE OF THE MCS ACRS
NRN WI...BUT BACKWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE
BACKBUILDING INTO THE LLJ IS POSSIBLE. SUSPECT THE SW/SRN PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA ARE MOST AT RISK OF SVR/HEAVY RAIN...SO ADDED HVY
RAIN ATTRIBUTE TO THE GRIDS IN THAT AREA. A FEW OF THE VERY HIGH-
RES MODELS TOOK THE WHOLE COMPLEX THROUGH TO OUR S...WITH LITTLE
PCPN ACRS THE FCST AREA. THOUGH THAT SEEMS LESS LIKELY...IT/S NOT
IMPOSSIBLE. SO HELD BACK A LITTLE ON POPS /DID NOT GO BEYOND
LIKELY/. ALSO HELD OFF ON ADDING ANY EXPLICIT SVR TO THE FCST
UNTIL WE SEE WHERE INITIAL STORMS FIRE AND HOW THE EVOLVE.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TUE IS FOR REMNANTS OF MCS TO EXIT THE AREA
IN THE MORNING. AFTER THAT...IT WL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ATM TO
RECOVER...SO TOOK POPS DOWN DURING THE MID-DAY...ESP ACRS THE N.
BUT BY LATE IN THE DAY...DEVELOPMENT MAY COMMENCE AGAIN. BEST CHC
WL BE OVER THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA...CLOSER TO WHERE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FM PREVIOUS CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE LOCATED.
PLAN TO HIT OVERALL SVR RISK THE NEXT FEW DAYS HARD IN THE HWO...
THOUGH WON/T BE ABLE TO ADD MUCH IN THE WAY OF DETAILS YET.
WL ALSO HOLD OFF ON ESF FOR NOW GIVEN REMAINING QUESTIONS ON THE
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. BUT WL HIT HVY RAIN/FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL HARD IN THE HWO.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE FIRST CHANCE WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SUSPECTING
CONVECTION FROM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY STORMS WILL PUSH BOUNDARY
FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING TONIGHT. AN
EXPECTED SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE FRONT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY FOCUS
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH THAN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY STORMS.
HAVE TRENDED HIGHEST CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND LOWERED RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-45
KNOTS POINTS TO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 200MB JET STREAK AND 0-6KM SHEAR 0F 40 TO 50
KNOTS WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
ANY LINGERING STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY MORNING
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY NOON. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST CANADIAN AND
ECMWF MODELS HAVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY DRY AS AREA WILL BE
WORKED OVER BY TWO MESO SCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED
REASONS. BELIEVE THIS SCENARIO IS PLAUSIBLE AS MCS ACTIVITY
USUALLY PUSHES THE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH AND CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS USUALLY EXERT THEIR FORCE THIS TIME OF YEAR. IF
THIS SCENARIO DOES PLAY OUT...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS WOULD BE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OF NOTABLE INTEREST... THE CANADIAN/ECMWF KEEP
THE FAR NORTHEAST DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH THAT THIS SCENARIO WOULD PLAY OUT THIS FAR OUT.
BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN
THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS MODELS ON THE 500MB FEATURE THAT WOULD
IMPACT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER BY NEXT WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO
THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED CONVECTION AT TIMES. FOR WEDNESDAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...
THEN COOL OFF ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AS WINDS TURN
OFF THE COOLER BAY AND LAKE. DID LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES ON THIS
DAY BY A DEGREE ACROSS GREEN BAY INTO THE LAKE SHORE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
AFTER ANY PATCHY FG IN FAR NERN WI DISSIPATES EARLY THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WL
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT IN AREAS AFFECTED BY THE MCS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1052 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014
ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO DROP POPS IN THE EAST. LATEST OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE WE HAVE STABILIZED FOR THE MOST PART WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF
CAPE LEFT AROUND SCOTTSBLUFF...SIDNEY AND ALLIANCE BUT INSTABILITY
ON DOWNWARD TREND. LATEST HRRR INDICATING OVERNIGHT ROUND OF
ISOLATED STORMS MOST LIKELY TO FIRE WELL OUT TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA. 02/GARMON
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014
TOWERING CU IS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
LARAMIE RANGE EASTWARD INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THIS BOUNDARY
DEVELOPED ALONG THE INTERFACE BETWEEN SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW OFF THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS FROM THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED NORTH OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AND HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTION A BIT HERE.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW VALUES OF CAPE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN CLEAR SLOT
WITH READINGS OF 250 J/KG OR LESS...WITH LESS INSTABILITY ELSEWHERE.
STILL THINKING AREAS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IN THE ZONE OF WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. THEN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING OVER THE PLAINS WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION
INCREASING AS WELL...COULD SEE A FEW WEAK ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT.
FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW
DIGGING INTO THE PACNW ON MONDAY. MODELS STILL POINT AT HIGHER DEWS
ADVECTING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL
MAINTAIN MENTION FOR WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON T-STORMS NORTH OF A
LINE FROM THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE TO ALLIANCE. A STRENGTHENING
SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL INTENSIFY
THE SW-NE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CWA...THUS EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON. MUCH WARMER TEMPS AND DRIER AIR WILL
OCCUR AS WELL IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...SO HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS FOR THIS AREA. FUELS ARE STILL IN GREEN UP
SO FIRE CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL...BUT THIS PATTERN WILL CERTAINLY HELP
TO DRY THESE FUELS OUT SOMEWHAT.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
TUESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES WITH THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS...FLOW ALOFT
WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER AND WILL SHIFT THE AXIS OF MOISTURE BACK
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. THIS COULD KEEP THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING DRY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY ALONG THE COASTLINE OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA...AS IT DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY
THIS WEEK. THIS LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO STALL AND MOVE EASTWARD.
SEVERAL DAYS AGO...MOST MODELS WERE SHOWING THIS LOW MOVING ACROSS
WYOMING AND BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ALONG WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. MOST MODELS HAVE TRENDING FURTHER
NORTH WITH THE LOW IN THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH THE CURRENT
12Z ECMWF/GEM AND NAM SHOWING THE LOW EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO
MONTANA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FURTHEST SOUTH IS THE
GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE LOCATION OF THIS LOW WILL BE KEY IN
DETERMINING PRECIP CHANCES AND PRECIP AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA LOOKS NEARLY
CERTAIN REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK. KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL...ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE PACIFIC FRONT. KEPT POP BETWEEN
15 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF WYOMING ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION OF THE LOW. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAT THE HIGH PLAINS EAST OF I25 WILL SEE A GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO
INCREASED POP UP TO 40 PERCENT EAST OF I25. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY CHANGE IN THE
FUTURE DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK...THE ONLY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE POSITION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW A REX BLOCK ATTEMPTING TO FORM...WHICH MAY
ALLOW THE LOW TO STALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
COOLER AIR TO REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. STARTED TO
INCREASE TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL...BUT BELOW MOS
CONSIDERING THE POSITION OF THE LOW.
FOR THE WEEKEND...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE 80S AND
NEAR 90 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTH. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...MODELS
INDICATE TROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER THE SPINE OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
TIME FRAMES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AFTER 15Z OR SO...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A
RAWLINS TO WHEATLAND TO ALLIANCE LINE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SOUTH OF THIS LINE SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TONIGHT. WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HUMIDITIES
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL
APPROACH 30-40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. ALTHOUGH FUELS ARE STILL IN GREEN-UP...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
DRYING TO OCCUR UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. A FEW T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT ON MONDAY AND FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON TUESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH
BASED...PRODUCE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
VERY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR T-STORMS AND WETTING
RAINS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 311 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014
RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...WITH THE UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT SARATOGA AND THE
LARAMIE RIVER AT LARAMIE LOOKING TO FALL BELOW ACTION STAGE BY
MIDWEEK. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE COOLING ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STILL SOME
HEALTHY SNOW PACK ABOVE 10000 FEET IN THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
RANGES...SO A RAPID WARM UP COULD RELEASE THIS WATER FOR FUTURE
RISES IN RIVERS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RJM
HYDROLOGY...RJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
937 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.UPDATE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...THE
FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE. THIS WILL HELP PUSH SEA BREEZE INLAND
FASTER AND FARTHER TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR INDICATES THE MAJORITY
OF CONVECTION OCCURING WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...FOCUSED NEAR
THE I75 CORRIDOR. THE MORNING JAX SOUNDING INDICATES A CONVECTIVE
TEMP OF 89 TODAY...WITH CAPPING AROUND 600MB. GIVEN THESE
OBSERVATIONS...THE HRRR DEPICTION LOOKS REASONABLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 92 68 93 69 / 30 10 20 20
SSI 84 74 85 74 / 10 10 10 10
JAX 89 69 89 71 / 20 10 20 10
SGJ 86 73 86 73 / 20 10 10 10
GNV 91 68 91 68 / 50 30 20 20
OCF 90 68 91 70 / 40 30 30 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
STRUBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1050 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.MORNING UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING AS CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK. MORNING SOUNDING SURFACE ANALYSIS SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS... BUT HIGH PRESSURE
INFLUENCE SHOULD HELP HOLD STORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. A WEAK SUBTLE
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUGGEST
AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A DALTON TO PEACHTREE CITY TO AMERICUS LINE
MAY HAVE SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCES... ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM
COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE TODAY. CONVECTIVE TEMP IS IN THE
LOWER 90S... SO SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP BY 3-4 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. /39
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL GA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...BUT A LEE TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO SET UP ON TUESDAY.
IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLOUD DEBRIS STILL AROUND FROM THE EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE BY SUNRISE.
DIURNAL CU SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR IS NOT REALLY
PINGING ONE SPECIFIC PLACE FOR INITIATION. HOWEVER...THE DISSIPATING
BOUNDARY MAY FOCUS SOME ACTIVITY WITH OUTFLOWS CONTINUING TO FOCUS
ANY STORMS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE GETTING STRONGER ALOFT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED IS FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WITH UPPER RIDGING DOMINATING THE AREA AND THE TAIL END OF
A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY MIDWEEK. THIS ALONG WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. EXPECT
AN INCREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S IN
SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS WANTING TO BACK OFF JUST A TAD ON TEMPS
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
TDP
AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014/
12Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ANY CIGS AROUND 5KFT. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. LESS
CONVECTION TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS. PATCHY MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT WHERE IT RAINS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 93 71 92 71 / 40 40 30 20
ATLANTA 91 73 92 74 / 30 30 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 87 65 86 66 / 40 40 30 20
CARTERSVILLE 92 71 93 70 / 20 20 30 20
COLUMBUS 94 73 94 74 / 30 30 20 10
GAINESVILLE 91 70 91 72 / 40 40 30 20
MACON 93 71 94 70 / 30 30 20 10
ROME 92 69 93 70 / 20 20 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 92 70 92 70 / 40 40 20 20
VIDALIA 92 70 93 73 / 30 30 20 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
724 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL GA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...BUT A LEE TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO SET UP ON TUESDAY.
IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLOUD DEBRIS STILL AROUND FROM THE EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE BY SUNRISE.
DIURNAL CU SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR IS NOT REALLY
PINGING ONE SPECIFIC PLACE FOR INITIATION. HOWEVER...THE DISSIPATING
BOUNDARY MAY FOCUS SOME ACTIVITY WITH OUTFLOWS CONTINUING TO FOCUS
ANY STORMS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE GETTING STRONGER ALOFT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED IS FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WITH UPPER RIDGING DOMINATING THE AREA AND THE TAIL END OF
A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY MIDWEEK. THIS ALONG WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. EXPECT
AN INCREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S IN
SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS WANTING TO BACK OFF JUST A TAD ON TEMPS
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
TDP
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ANY CIGS AROUND 5KFT. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. CLEARINGSKIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. LESS CONVECTIION TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS. PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT WHERE IT RAINS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 93 71 92 71 / 40 40 30 20
ATLANTA 91 73 92 74 / 30 30 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 87 65 86 66 / 40 40 30 20
CARTERSVILLE 92 71 93 70 / 20 20 30 20
COLUMBUS 94 73 94 74 / 30 30 20 10
GAINESVILLE 91 70 91 72 / 40 40 30 20
MACON 93 71 94 70 / 30 30 20 10
ROME 92 69 93 70 / 20 20 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 92 70 92 70 / 40 40 20 20
VIDALIA 92 70 93 73 / 30 30 20 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1059 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
308 AM CDT
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SPINNING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW FOLLOWING ALONG. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCS EAST THEN SOUTH THEN
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
SPREADING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES
TRAVERSING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BASE AND TO ITS EAST.
THIS WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO TONIGHT. THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH
WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE
UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TODAY BUT ENERGY WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD FROM ITS BASE AND HELP TO AMPLIFY UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. THE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WILL MORE OR
LESS WASH OUT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS TO ITS EAST. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING FOR STRONG WARM ADVECTION WHICH WILL
RESULT IN H85 TEMPS INCREASING FROM AROUND +14 ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS MORNING TO +18 OR BETTER BY TONIGHT. A VERY WARM DAY IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S. AN
INITIALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ALLOWING A LAKE BREEZE TO SET UP WHICH WILL BRING
SOME COOLING TO IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE AREAS AND A BIT FURTHER INLAND
ACROSS LAKE COUNTY ILLINOIS. DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THESE AREAS WILL
LIKELY STILL BE QUITE WARM GIVEN THE WARM START TO THE DAY...BUT
LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL LIKELY CUT BACK INTO THE 70S IF NOT A BIT
COOLER IN SPOTS. AN INFLUX OF BETTER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATER
TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE IT
WILL BE INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MORE SO THIS
EVENING. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY DO NOT LOOK GREAT BUT WATER
VAPOR SHOWS SEVERAL SUBTLE WAVES MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE INFLUX OF
BETTER THETA-E AIR AND WARM ASCENT ALREADY IN PLACE...AS WELL AS
LITTLE IF ANY CAPPING BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE NUMBER OF
LARGER SCALE FACTORS SUPPORTING CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THE AREA OF
SLIGHT POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS NOTED ABOVE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PUSH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD ACROSS IOWA AND MINNESOTA AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES
ACROSS THAT AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA/IOWA/MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND ORGANIZE INTO
AN MCS BY EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS IOWA AND INTO
FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT BRINGING A STEADY FEED OF MOISTURE
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. 850-300 MB
THICKNESS RIDGE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA TO WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION
OF THE THICKNESS GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS.
THIS AND THE SHIFTING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
ORIENTATION SHIFTING THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUPPORT AN
OVERALL EAST TO SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF WHATEVER MCS RESULTS FROM THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. THIS MAY BE MANIFESTED AS MORE OF A
SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT VS. STORM MOTION GIVEN THAT BETTER MOISTURE
WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION...BACKWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS
SUPPORT THIS SOUTHWARD EXPANSION IDEA. HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWS A
MYRIAD OF SOLUTIONS SO AT THIS TIME RANGE PREFER TO LEAN MORE
HEAVILY ON THE LARGER SCALE ELEMENTS AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS. THIS
THINKING SUPPORTS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION BEING ACROSS WISCONSIN BUT
SEE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME SORT OF A SOUTHWARD
EXPANSION/PROPAGATION OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER QUESTION BEING HOW FAR
SOUTH AS WELL AS TIMING. WILL TWEAK POPS FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING TO SHOW A SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE OF POPS GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80. HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED TUESDAY. WHATEVER CONVECTION IS AROUND IN THE MORNING
WILL LIKELY END AND IT APPEARS THAT THE REST OF TUESDAY MAY BE DRY
WITH THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THIS MAY ALSO
BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT PLAYS OUT TUESDAY MORNING IN TERMS OF LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES ETC. THAT MAY BE ABLE TO TRIGGER ISOLD/SCATTERED
CONVECTION LATER TUESDAY AS WE WILL STILL BE UNSTABLE. UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/WI LATER TUESDAY MAY BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SO A LAKE BREEZE LOOKS UNLIKELY SO EVEN LAKESHORE AREAS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80...WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 ELSEWHERE WITH A
RATHER STICKY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT STRETCHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE TO THE WEST AS WELL SO IMPULSES
ARE LIKELY TO EMANATE NORTHEASTWARD UP THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
DRIVE WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED WEDNESDAY BUT LESS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ACROSS A LARGER AREA...ESPECIALLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ANY SUBTLE UPPER WAVES. THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THURSDAY
TAKING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT ALONG...WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THE ORIGINAL
STATIONARY BOUNDARY MAY SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS THIS
OCCURS SO CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY DRIVING
CONVECTION FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE ANOTHER SITUATION
WHERE THE LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING SO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LIMITED.
THE UPPER LOW MAY THEN MOVE EASTWARD BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE INTO
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
BUT MUCH OF THE BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL NEED TO BE BETTER
IDENTIFIED AT A SHORTER TIME RANGE AS THE LOCATION OF KEY FEATURES
WILL LARGELY DRIVE THE OUTCOME. WITH A MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE LESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AT TIMES. TEMPS
LOOK TO MODERATE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH COOLER TEMPS MORE
LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE COOL FRONT
PASSES.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* A LAKE BREEZE IS PSBL TODAY WITH WINDS TURNING EAST BEHIND IT.
BETTER CHANCE OF EAST WINDS AT ORD THAN MDW.
* CHC TSRA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
MOST OF TODAY WILL BE VFR WITH MODEST SW/SSW WINDS. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY NOW LIES ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED
TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-80. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TODAY AT OR BELOW 10 KT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND
SEVERAL MILES INTO COOK COUNTY. FOR NOW ONLY THE HRRR WANTS TO
PUSH THE BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY ACROSS BOTH ORD AND MDW TURNING
WINDS TO THE EAST...WHILE MOST MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY STALLING
IN THE VICINITY OF ORD AND SHY OF MDW. THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SO EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE AND SHOULD PUSH THE LAKE BREEZE BACK TOWARDS THE LAKE
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RESUMING.
THIS EVENING...A LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW KICKING OFF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. MOST GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY STAYING
OVER WISCONSIN...HOWEVER THERE ARE HINTS THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD PROPAGATE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A PROB30 FOR NOW
GIVEN THE LACK OF CERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT. HI-RES
GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE AND OFFERS LITTLE INSIGHT INTO HOW
CONVECTION MIGHT EVOLVE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE MAKING IT THROUGH THE TERMINALS TODAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR WITH PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
250 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS ONTARIO LIFTING
A WARM FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE LAKE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST TO THE
MARITIME PROVINCES LATE TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY
SAG BACK SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK
NORTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. EACH DAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT INCLUDING OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME LARGER
THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEXES THAT WILL CREATE A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN THE
WIND FIELD. IN ADDITION...MID 60 AND EVEN 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG FORMING
OVER THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
850 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
308 AM CDT
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SPINNING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW FOLLOWING ALONG. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCS EAST THEN SOUTH THEN
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
SPREADING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES
TRAVERSING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BASE AND TO ITS EAST.
THIS WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO TONIGHT. THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH
WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE
UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TODAY BUT ENERGY WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD FROM ITS BASE AND HELP TO AMPLIFY UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. THE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WILL MORE OR
LESS WASH OUT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS TO ITS EAST. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING FOR STRONG WARM ADVECTION WHICH WILL
RESULT IN H85 TEMPS INCREASING FROM AROUND +14 ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS MORNING TO +18 OR BETTER BY TONIGHT. A VERY WARM DAY IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S. AN
INITIALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ALLOWING A LAKE BREEZE TO SET UP WHICH WILL BRING
SOME COOLING TO IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE AREAS AND A BIT FURTHER INLAND
ACROSS LAKE COUNTY ILLINOIS. DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THESE AREAS WILL
LIKELY STILL BE QUITE WARM GIVEN THE WARM START TO THE DAY...BUT
LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL LIKELY CUT BACK INTO THE 70S IF NOT A BIT
COOLER IN SPOTS. AN INFLUX OF BETTER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATER
TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE IT
WILL BE INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MORE SO THIS
EVENING. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY DO NOT LOOK GREAT BUT WATER
VAPOR SHOWS SEVERAL SUBTLE WAVES MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE INFLUX OF
BETTER THETA-E AIR AND WARM ASCENT ALREADY IN PLACE...AS WELL AS
LITTLE IF ANY CAPPING BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE NUMBER OF
LARGER SCALE FACTORS SUPPORTING CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THE AREA OF
SLIGHT POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS NOTED ABOVE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PUSH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD ACROSS IOWA AND MINNESOTA AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES
ACROSS THAT AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA/IOWA/MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND ORGANIZE INTO
AN MCS BY EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS IOWA AND INTO
FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT BRINGING A STEADY FEED OF MOISTURE
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. 850-300 MB
THICKNESS RIDGE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA TO WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION
OF THE THICKNESS GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS.
THIS AND THE SHIFTING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
ORIENTATION SHIFTING THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUPPORT AN
OVERALL EAST TO SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF WHATEVER MCS RESULTS FROM THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. THIS MAY BE MANIFESTED AS MORE OF A
SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT VS. STORM MOTION GIVEN THAT BETTER MOISTURE
WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION...BACKWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS
SUPPORT THIS SOUTHWARD EXPANSION IDEA. HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWS A
MYRIAD OF SOLUTIONS SO AT THIS TIME RANGE PREFER TO LEAN MORE
HEAVILY ON THE LARGER SCALE ELEMENTS AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS. THIS
THINKING SUPPORTS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION BEING ACROSS WISCONSIN BUT
SEE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME SORT OF A SOUTHWARD
EXPANSION/PROPAGATION OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER QUESTION BEING HOW FAR
SOUTH AS WELL AS TIMING. WILL TWEAK POPS FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING TO SHOW A SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE OF POPS GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80. HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED TUESDAY. WHATEVER CONVECTION IS AROUND IN THE MORNING
WILL LIKELY END AND IT APPEARS THAT THE REST OF TUESDAY MAY BE DRY
WITH THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THIS MAY ALSO
BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT PLAYS OUT TUESDAY MORNING IN TERMS OF LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES ETC. THAT MAY BE ABLE TO TRIGGER ISOLD/SCATTERED
CONVECTION LATER TUESDAY AS WE WILL STILL BE UNSTABLE. UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/WI LATER TUESDAY MAY BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SO A LAKE BREEZE LOOKS UNLIKELY SO EVEN LAKESHORE AREAS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80...WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 ELSEWHERE WITH A
RATHER STICKY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT STRETCHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE TO THE WEST AS WELL SO IMPULSES
ARE LIKELY TO EMANATE NORTHEASTWARD UP THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
DRIVE WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED WEDNESDAY BUT LESS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ACROSS A LARGER AREA...ESPECIALLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ANY SUBTLE UPPER WAVES. THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THURSDAY
TAKING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT ALONG...WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THE ORIGINAL
STATIONARY BOUNDARY MAY SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS THIS
OCCURS SO CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY DRIVING
CONVECTION FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE ANOTHER SITUATION
WHERE THE LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING SO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LIMITED.
THE UPPER LOW MAY THEN MOVE EASTWARD BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE INTO
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
BUT MUCH OF THE BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL NEED TO BE BETTER
IDENTIFIED AT A SHORTER TIME RANGE AS THE LOCATION OF KEY FEATURES
WILL LARGELY DRIVE THE OUTCOME. WITH A MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE LESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AT TIMES. TEMPS
LOOK TO MODERATE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH COOLER TEMPS MORE
LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE COOL FRONT
PASSES.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* A LAKE BREEZE IS PSBL TODAY WITH WINDS TURNING EAST BEHIND IT.
BETTER CHANCE OF EAST WINDS AT ORD THAN MDW.
* CHC TSRA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
MOST OF TODAY WILL BE VFR WITH MODEST SW/SSW WINDS. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY NOW LIES ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED
TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-80. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TODAY AT OR BELOW 10 KT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND
SEVERAL MILES INTO COOK COUNTY. FOR NOW ONLY THE HRRR WANTS TO
PUSH THE BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY ACROSS BOTH ORD AND MDW TURNING
WINDS TO THE EAST...WHILE MOST MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY STALLING
IN THE VICINITY OF ORD AND SHY OF MDW. THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SO EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE AND SHOULD PUSH THE LAKE BREEZE BACK TOWARDS THE LAKE
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RESUMING.
THIS EVENING...A LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW KICKING OFF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. MOST GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY STAYING
OVER WISCONSIN...HOWEVER THERE ARE HINTS THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD PROPAGATE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A PROB30 FOR NOW
GIVEN THE LACK OF CERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT. HI-RES
GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE AND OFFERS LITTLE INSIGHT INTO HOW
CONVECTION MIGHT EVOLVE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE MAKING IT THROUGH THE TERMINALS TODAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT PLACEMENT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR WITH PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
250 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS ONTARIO LIFTING
A WARM FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE LAKE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST TO THE
MARITIME PROVINCES LATE TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY
SAG BACK SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK
NORTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. EACH DAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT INCLUDING OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME LARGER
THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEXES THAT WILL CREATE A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN THE
WIND FIELD. IN ADDITION...MID 60 AND EVEN 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG FORMING
OVER THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
638 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
308 AM CDT
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SPINNING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW FOLLOWING ALONG. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCS EAST THEN SOUTH THEN
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
SPREADING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES
TRAVERSING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BASE AND TO ITS EAST.
THIS WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO TONIGHT. THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH
WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE
UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TODAY BUT ENERGY WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD FROM ITS BASE AND HELP TO AMPLIFY UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. THE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WILL MORE OR
LESS WASH OUT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS TO ITS EAST. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING FOR STRONG WARM ADVECTION WHICH WILL
RESULT IN H85 TEMPS INCREASING FROM AROUND +14 ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS MORNING TO +18 OR BETTER BY TONIGHT. A VERY WARM DAY IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S. AN
INITIALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ALLOWING A LAKE BREEZE TO SET UP WHICH WILL BRING
SOME COOLING TO IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE AREAS AND A BIT FURTHER INLAND
ACROSS LAKE COUNTY ILLINOIS. DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THESE AREAS WILL
LIKELY STILL BE QUITE WARM GIVEN THE WARM START TO THE DAY...BUT
LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL LIKELY CUT BACK INTO THE 70S IF NOT A BIT
COOLER IN SPOTS. AN INFLUX OF BETTER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATER
TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE IT
WILL BE INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MORE SO THIS
EVENING. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY DO NOT LOOK GREAT BUT WATER
VAPOR SHOWS SEVERAL SUBTLE WAVES MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE INFLUX OF
BETTER THETA-E AIR AND WARM ASCENT ALREADY IN PLACE...AS WELL AS
LITTLE IF ANY CAPPING BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE NUMBER OF
LARGER SCALE FACTORS SUPPORTING CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THE AREA OF
SLIGHT POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS NOTED ABOVE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PUSH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD ACROSS IOWA AND MINNESOTA AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES
ACROSS THAT AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA/IOWA/MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND ORGANIZE INTO
AN MCS BY EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS IOWA AND INTO
FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT BRINGING A STEADY FEED OF MOISTURE
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. 850-300 MB
THICKNESS RIDGE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA TO WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION
OF THE THICKNESS GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS.
THIS AND THE SHIFTING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
ORIENTATION SHIFTING THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUPPORT AN
OVERALL EAST TO SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF WHATEVER MCS RESULTS FROM THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. THIS MAY BE MANIFESTED AS MORE OF A
SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT VS. STORM MOTION GIVEN THAT BETTER MOISTURE
WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION...BACKWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS
SUPPORT THIS SOUTHWARD EXPANSION IDEA. HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWS A
MYRIAD OF SOLUTIONS SO AT THIS TIME RANGE PREFER TO LEAN MORE
HEAVILY ON THE LARGER SCALE ELEMENTS AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS. THIS
THINKING SUPPORTS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION BEING ACROSS WISCONSIN BUT
SEE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME SORT OF A SOUTHWARD
EXPANSION/PROPAGATION OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER QUESTION BEING HOW FAR
SOUTH AS WELL AS TIMING. WILL TWEAK POPS FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING TO SHOW A SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE OF POPS GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80. HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED TUESDAY. WHATEVER CONVECTION IS AROUND IN THE MORNING
WILL LIKELY END AND IT APPEARS THAT THE REST OF TUESDAY MAY BE DRY
WITH THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THIS MAY ALSO
BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT PLAYS OUT TUESDAY MORNING IN TERMS OF LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES ETC. THAT MAY BE ABLE TO TRIGGER ISOLD/SCATTERED
CONVECTION LATER TUESDAY AS WE WILL STILL BE UNSTABLE. UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/WI LATER TUESDAY MAY BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SO A LAKE BREEZE LOOKS UNLIKELY SO EVEN LAKESHORE AREAS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80...WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 ELSEWHERE WITH A
RATHER STICKY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT STRETCHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE TO THE WEST AS WELL SO IMPULSES
ARE LIKELY TO EMANATE NORTHEASTWARD UP THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
DRIVE WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED WEDNESDAY BUT LESS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ACROSS A LARGER AREA...ESPECIALLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ANY SUBTLE UPPER WAVES. THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THURSDAY
TAKING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT ALONG...WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THE ORIGINAL
STATIONARY BOUNDARY MAY SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS THIS
OCCURS SO CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY DRIVING
CONVECTION FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE ANOTHER SITUATION
WHERE THE LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING SO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LIMITED.
THE UPPER LOW MAY THEN MOVE EASTWARD BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE INTO
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
BUT MUCH OF THE BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL NEED TO BE BETTER
IDENTIFIED AT A SHORTER TIME RANGE AS THE LOCATION OF KEY FEATURES
WILL LARGELY DRIVE THE OUTCOME. WITH A MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE LESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AT TIMES. TEMPS
LOOK TO MODERATE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH COOLER TEMPS MORE
LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE COOL FRONT
PASSES.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE TURNING WINDS EASTERLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* CHANCES FOR TSRA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
MOST OF TODAY WILL BE VFR WITH MODEST SW/SSW WINDS. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY NOW LIES ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED
TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-80. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TODAY AT OR BELOW 10 KT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND
SEVERAL MILES INTO COOK COUNTY. FOR NOW ONLY THE HRRR WANTS TO
PUSH THE BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY ACROSS BOTH ORD AND MDW TURNING
WINDS TO THE EAST...WHILE MOST MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY STALLING
IN THE VICINITY OF ORD AND SHY OF MDW. THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SO EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE AND SHOULD PUSH THE LAKE BREEZE BACK TOWARDS THE LAKE
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RESUMING.
THIS EVENING...A LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW KICKING OFF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. MOST GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY STAYING
OVER WISCONSIN...HOWEVER THERE ARE HINTS THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD PROPAGATE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A PROB30 FOR NOW
GIVEN THE LACK OF CERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT. HI-RES
GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE AND OFFERS LITTLE INSIGHT INTO HOW
CONVECTION MIGHT EVOLVE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE PUSHING ACROSS TERMINALS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT PLACEMENT.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR WITH PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
250 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS ONTARIO LIFTING
A WARM FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE LAKE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST TO THE
MARITIME PROVINCES LATE TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY
SAG BACK SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK
NORTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. EACH DAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT INCLUDING OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME LARGER
THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEXES THAT WILL CREATE A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN THE
WIND FIELD. IN ADDITION...MID 60 AND EVEN 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG FORMING
OVER THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
SUMMER WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEK AS A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BRING A FEW
SCATTERED STORMS TODAY...HOWEVER AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALOFT AND ALLOW HOT SUMMER
WEATHER BUILD ACROSS REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 90S FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN 2014.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 951 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
SCATTERED CONVECTION IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...ARCING ROUGHLY FROM THE SOUTHERN INDY METRO BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY AND BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 70S AT 1330Z...WARMER WHERE
RAIN WAS NOT OR HAD NOT FALLEN.
CURRENT CONVECTIVE SETUP REQUIRING SOME CHANGES TO THE MORNING
FORECAST. PRESENCE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY AND A WAVE ALOFT
CONTRIBUTING TO THE STORMS THIS MORNING. MESOANALYSIS INDICATING
AN AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
850MB WINDS AT AROUND 25KTS CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTION AS WELL.
WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO EXPAND NORTH INTO THE REGION. COMBINED WITH
A PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...EXPECT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE TO DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR PROGRESSION OF STORMS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AS CURRENT
EXTRAPOLATION WOULD BRING THESE CELLS INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT HRRR BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY INTO
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES IN VICINITY OF THE REMNANT BOUNDARY BEFORE
WEAKENING STORMS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND REFOCUSING MORE
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED MENTION FOR STORMS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CELLS THAT CAN GET GOING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY BUT OVERALL...AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRIER
THAN THIS MORNING HAS IN MOST AREAS.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS IN THE SOUTH A COUPLE DEGREES WITH
CLOUDS/PRECIP THIS MORNING LIMITING TEMP RISES A BIT. EXPECT A
STEAMY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS
MORNING.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A BIT BETTER IDEA ON THE PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH
MID WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW US TO REMOVE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
GFS AND NAM BOTH ALLOW A LOW ALOFT TO DIG OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RESPONSE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY IS A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL
KEEP ANY PASSING SHORT WAVES WELL NORTH OF INDIANA. THE PATTERN
WILL ALSO ALLOW SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO
FAR TO BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOW 700MB TEMPS SURGING ABOVE 10C...EFFECTIVELY
CAPPING THE COLUMN. FURTHERMORE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES REACH
UNATTAINABLE LEVELS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
KEEP ITS INFLUENCE OVER INDIANA AS WELL. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT
IN HOT...MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND WARM CLEAR NIGHTS. WILL USE A BLEND
ON HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN OUR FIRST 90S OF THE
YEAR ON TUESDAY. WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE LONG TERM ALLOWING AN
UPPER LOW TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL
DIFFER SOME ON EXACT PATH OF UPPER LOW...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
DID KNOCK ALLBLEND/S LIKELY POPS BACK DOWN TO CHANCE CATEGORY DUE
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE CHANCE POPS WILL BE
THE RULE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL
FROM THE UPPER 80S EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S
BY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW HAS MORE OF AN INFLUENCE.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 161500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 923 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2014
PULLED SHOWER MENTION BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS REFLECTIVITY PROGS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT LARGEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THROUGH
18Z TODAY.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
UPPER WAVE AND A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT. CURRENT TRENDS ARE FOR
KBMG TO SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL USE TEMPO
TSRA THERE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE WILL USE
VCSH.
BEST FORCING WILL BE BEFORE 18Z SO THAT IS WHEN BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT POP UP CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE VCSH MENTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER 00Z OR SO EXPECT DRY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50/MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1023 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
SUMMER WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEK AS A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BRING A FEW
SCATTERED STORMS TODAY...HOWEVER AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALOFT AND ALLOW HOT SUMMER
WEATHER BUILD ACROSS REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 90S FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN 2014.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 951 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
SCATTERED CONVECTION IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...ARCING ROUGHLY FROM THE SOUTHERN INDY METRO BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY AND BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 70S AT 1330Z...WARMER WHERE
RAIN WAS NOT OR HAD NOT FALLEN.
CURRENT CONVECTIVE SETUP REQUIRING SOME CHANGES TO THE MORNING
FORECAST. PRESENCE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY AND A WAVE ALOFT
CONTRIBUTING TO THE STORMS THIS MORNING. MESOANALYSIS INDICATING
AN AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
850MB WINDS AT AROUND 25KTS CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTION AS WELL.
WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO EXPAND NORTH INTO THE REGION. COMBINED WITH
A PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...EXPECT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE TO DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR PROGRESSION OF STORMS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AS CURRENT
EXTRAPOLATION WOULD BRING THESE CELLS INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT HRRR BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY INTO
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES IN VICINITY OF THE REMNANT BOUNDARY BEFORE
WEAKENING STORMS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND REFOCUSING MORE
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED MENTION FOR STORMS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CELLS THAT CAN GET GOING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY BUT OVERALL...AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRIER
THAN THIS MORNING HAS IN MOST AREAS.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS IN THE SOUTH A COUPLE DEGREES WITH
CLOUDS/PRECIP THIS MORNING LIMITING TEMP RISES A BIT. EXPECT A
STEAMY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS
MORNING.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A BIT BETTER IDEA ON THE PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH
MID WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW US TO REMOVE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
GFS AND NAM BOTH ALLOW A LOW ALOFT TO DIG OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RESPONSE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY IS A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL
KEEP ANY PASSING SHORT WAVES WELL NORTH OF INDIANA. THE PATTERN
WILL ALSO ALLOW SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO
FAR TO BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOW 700MB TEMPS SURGING ABOVE 10C...EFFECTIVELY
CAPPING THE COLUMN. FURTHERMORE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES REACH
UNATTAINABLE LEVELS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
KEEP ITS INFLUENCE OVER INDIANA AS WELL. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT
IN HOT...MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND WARM CLEAR NIGHTS. WILL USE A BLEND
ON HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN OUR FIRST 90S OF THE
YEAR ON TUESDAY. WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE LONG TERM ALLOWING AN
UPPER LOW TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL
DIFFER SOME ON EXACT PATH OF UPPER LOW...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
DID KNOCK ALLBLEND/S LIKELY POPS BACK DOWN TO CHANCE CATEGORY DUE
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE CHANCE POPS WILL BE
THE RULE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL
FROM THE UPPER 80S EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S
BY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW HAS MORE OF AN INFLUENCE.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 161500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2014
PULLED SHOWER MENTION BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS REFLECTIVITY PROGS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT LARGEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THROUGH
18Z TODAY.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
UPPER WAVE AND A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT. CURRENT TRENDS ARE FOR
KBMG TO SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL USE TEMPO
TSRA THERE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE WILL USE
VCSH.
BEST FORCING WILL BE BEFORE 18Z SO THAT IS WHEN BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT POP UP CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE VCSH MENTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER 00Z OR SO EXPECT DRY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50/MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
951 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
SUMMER WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEK AS A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BRING A FEW
SCATTERED STORMS TODAY...HOWEVER AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALOFT AND ALLOW HOT SUMMER
WEATHER BUILD ACROSS REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 90S FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN 2014.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 951 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
SCATTERED CONVECTION IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...
ARCING ROUGHLY FROM THE SOUTHERN INDY METRO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY AND BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 70S AT 1330Z...WARMER WHERE RAIN WAS
NOT OR HAD NOT FALLEN.
CURRENT CONVECTIVE SETUP REQUIRING SOME CHANGES TO THE MORNING
FORECAST. PRESENCE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY AND A WAVE ALOFT
CONTRIBUTING TO THE STORMS THIS MORNING. MESOANALYSIS INDICATING
AN AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
850MB WINDS AT AROUND 25KTS CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTION AS WELL.
WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO EXPAND NORTH INTO THE REGION. COMBINED WITH
A PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...EXPECT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE TO DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR PROGRESSION OF STORMS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AS CURRENT
EXTRAPOLATION WOULD BRING THESE CELLS INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT HRRR BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY INTO
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES IN VICINITY OF THE REMNANT BOUNDARY BEFORE
WEAKENING STORMS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND REFOCUSING MORE
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED MENTION FOR STORMS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CELLS THAT CAN GET GOING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY BUT OVERALL...AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRIER
THAN THIS MORNING HAS IN MOST AREAS.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS IN THE SOUTH A COUPLE DEGREES WITH
CLOUDS/PRECIP THIS MORNING LIMITING TEMP RISES A BIT. EXPECT A
STEAMY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS
MORNING.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A BIT BETTER IDEA ON THE PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH
MID WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW US TO REMOVE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
GFS AND NAM BOTH ALLOW A LOW ALOFT TO DIG OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RESPONSE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY IS A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL
KEEP ANY PASSING SHORT WAVES WELL NORTH OF INDIANA. THE PATTERN
WILL ALSO ALLOW SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO
FAR TO BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOW 700MB TEMPS SURGING ABOVE 10C...EFFECTIVELY
CAPPING THE COLUMN. FURTHERMORE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES REACH
UNATTAINABLE LEVELS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
KEEP ITS INFLUENCE OVER INDIANA AS WELL. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT
IN HOT...MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND WARM CLEAR NIGHTS. WILL USE A BLEND
ON HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN OUR FIRST 90S OF THE
YEAR ON TUESDAY. WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE LONG TERM ALLOWING AN
UPPER LOW TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL
DIFFER SOME ON EXACT PATH OF UPPER LOW...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
DID KNOCK ALLBLEND/S LIKELY POPS BACK DOWN TO CHANCE CATEGORY DUE
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE CHANCE POPS WILL BE
THE RULE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL
FROM THE UPPER 80S EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S
BY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW HAS MORE OF AN INFLUENCE.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 161200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2014
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT LARGEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THROUGH
18Z TODAY.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
UPPER WAVE AND A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT. CURRENT TRENDS ARE FOR
KBMG TO SEE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL USE TEMPO
TSRA THERE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE WILL USE
VCSH.
BEST FORCING WILL BE BEFORE 18Z SO THAT IS WHEN BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT POP UP CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE VCSH MENTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AFTER 00Z OR SO EXPECT DRY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1010 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE NATION AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE A
COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. AS A RESULT OF THIS PATTERN...SOUTHWEST FLOW IS SUPPORTING
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ALONG WITH STEAMY
DEWPOINTS. ANY PATCHY FOG THAT WAS OUT THERE EARLIER THIS MORNING
HAS BURNED OFF. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND SOME REMNANT ENERGY...AHEAD OF THAT SFC FRONT. THE HRRR CARRIES
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA...POTENTIALLY STARTING OVER OUR HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. ACCORDINGLY...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT PRIMARILY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALSO ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY TOWARD THE CONSSHORT GUIDANCE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HIGHS OF
YESTERDAY. FINALLY...MESHED THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS FOR T/TD/SKY
INTO THE GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH FRESHENED ZFP AND HWO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
AT 3AM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ACROSS ILLINOIS
INTO MISSOURI. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL BE FALLING
APART AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY. THIS BIG QUESTION IS HOW WILL
THE REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT EFFECT THE AREA AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY. LOOKING AT THE NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA...
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN ORDER TO BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN
CONVECTION. AT JACKSON THIS AFTERNOON AT 2 PM...THE LIFTED INDEX
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE -4 WITH TOTAL TOTALS OF 48. THE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS STRONG AND THERE IS ONLY A HINT OF A MID LEVEL CAP.
THE KEY TO TODAY IS TRYING TO FIND ANY TRIGGERS TO GET THE CONVECTION
GOING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING ANYTHING DEVELOP WILL BE NORTH OF I
64 AND ALONG THE VA BORDER. AS A SIDEBAR...SOME CONVECTION MAY MOVE
UP FROM TENNESSEE AND SLIDE INTO THE BORDER AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH NO CONVECTION IS FORECAST FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA
TODAY...A VERY ISOLATED CELL OR TWO MAY POP UP. THE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE EVEN WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WILL MANY LOCATIONS FLIRTING
WITH 90 TODAY. TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE COOLED AS SOME OF THE COOLER
AIR TO THE NORTH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED
REGARDING THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN...TIMING OF WEATHER SYSTEM
PASSAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...AND THE
EVOLUTION...TIMING...AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WITH SAID
WEATHER SYSTEMS. THAT ALL BEING SAID...THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. UNSTABLE AIR AND MEAGER
MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH AND THE MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE GULF SLOWLY INCREASES. THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK COULD FEATURE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IT APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY
MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORED
TIME FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH A 40 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WX THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONT BRUSHES BY...BUT CHANCES
AT ANY LOCATION WILL BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS EVEN AS A
VCTS. AGAIN EXPECT ANY FOG TO BE CONFINED TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT LEAVING THE TAFS CLEAN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
734 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1130 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
A FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS DEVELOPED AND MOVED INTO MCCREARY COUNTY OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT BOTH WERE SMALL BOTH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE...AND HAVE SINCE ALMOST COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. ACCORDING TO
SATELLITE...A SMALL BAND OF CLOUDS HAVE SET UP ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
REGION JUST SE OF KY. ALONG WITH THIS BAND OF CLOUDS...SOME SPOTTY
VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES HAVE FORMED OVER THE LAST HOUR. AT THE CURRENT
RADAR AND SATELLITE TREND...EXPECT THESE SPRINKLES TO REMAIN SE OF
THE MOUNTAIN RIDGE/STATE LINE DIVIDE CAUSING LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO
OUR CWA OTHER THAN SOME ENHANCED CLOUD COVER OVER BELL THROUGH
LETCHER COUNTY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK. ONCE
AGAIN...UPDATED THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA FOR TEMPS...WINDS...AND DEW POINTS...TO MAKE SURE THE ONGOING
CONDITIONS ARE REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
SOME ISOLATED PULSY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO
INCREASE ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL AS CHANCES OF SPRINKLES FURTHER
NORTHWARD...COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. STILL EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS TO DIE DOWN SHORTLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO DECIDED TO UPDATE THE SKY GRIDS TO
BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND A DIMINISHING TREND INTO THE
EVENING. WENT AHEAD AND LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE
TO MAKE SURE ONGOING GRIDS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE
WELL REFLECTIVE OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF KENTUCKY WHILE A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...IS SLOWLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE EXIT OF
THE HIGH HAS ALLOWED WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO EAST
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THOUGH
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY HAS GONE PARTLY CLOUDY DUE TO
SOME HEALTHY CU DEVELOPMENT. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP DRAMATICALLY
WITH READINGS NOW IN THE MID 60S FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWA AND LOW 60S TO THE NORTH. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KTS HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY RECENTLY. ALSO RECENTLY...SOME LIGHT RETURNS HAVE
SHOWN UP ON RADAR OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT THE CONTINUING INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK. A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LIFT INTO
CENTRAL CANADA...NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AN INTO THE DAY
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO...ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN...
BUT NOT BEFORE DRAGGING THE REMAINS OF SOME ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
ITS TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER HEIGHTS LOCALLY INTO THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE STORM TRACK IS
SHUNTED EVEN FURTHER NORTH. DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE
WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME SPRINKLES AND A STRAY SHOWER
AROUND THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
BEFORE EVERYTHING CLEARS OUT INCLUDING THE BULK OF THE CU. THIS WILL
SET UP ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING INDUCED RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES...THOUGH LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF VALLEY FOG
LATE TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND DEWPOINTS
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT. FOR MONDAY...THE REMAINS OF THE
500MB TROUGH...SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS...AND A WEAKENING FRONT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY...
MAINLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF BY
EVENING AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT...INTO THE EVENING. MORE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUDS ON MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALL CATEGORY ALONG WITH ANY FOG
CONFINED TO JUST THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS.
ONCE AGAIN STARTED WITH THE BCCONSSHORT FOR T/TD AND WINDS THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE CONTINUING WITH BCCONSALL. DID MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE VALLEY AND RIDGE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT MONDAY NIGHT...DUE TO SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR
POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE KEPT THEM LOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED
REGARDING THE OVEALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN...TIMING OF WEATHER SYSTEM
PASSAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...AND THE
EVOLUTION...TIMING...AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WITH SAID
WEATHER SYSTEMS. THAT ALL BEING SAID...THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. UNSTABLE AIR AND MEAGER MOISTURE OFF THE
GULF OF MEXICO COULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO EASTERN KENTUCKY AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN WILL
SLOWLY EVOLVE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE MOISTURE FLUX
OFF THE GULF SLOWLY INCREASES. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK COULD FEATURE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS
PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IT
APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
TIME FRAME WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORED TIME FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS...WITH A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WX THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FRONT BRUSHES BY.
HAVE ADDED A PREVAILING VCTS FOR THIS FROM EARLY AFTERNOON ON AT JKL
AND SJS WHILE LEAVING OUT OF THE OTHER SITES FOR NOW. EXPECT ANY FOG
TONIGHT TO BE CONFINED TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND LEAVE THE TAF SITES
UNBLEMISHED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF/JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
742 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE NEGATIVE TILT
SHORTWAVE THAT LIFTED THRU THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY YESTERDAY
HAS BECOME AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING MID LEVEL LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO
EARLY THIS MORNING. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MANAGED
TO SPARK A FEW -SHRA OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/FAR WRN UPPER MI FROM
AROUND KIWD TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...AS EXPECTED SKIES HAVE LARGELY CLEARED ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AS MUCH DRIER AIR...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS...HAS ADVECTED
INTO THE AREA. AT THE VERY LOW-LEVELS...YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL AND
DIMINISHING WINDS UNDERNEATH THE MID LEVEL DRYING HAVE RESULTED IN
FOG FORMATION OVER A GOOD PORTION OF CNTRL UPPER MI.
WITH DECENT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC (KMQT RADAR SHOWS 25KT SW WINDS
AT 500FT AGL)...FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISPERSE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HRS
AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER...NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...PATCHY FOG MAY PLAGUE
LAKESIDE LOCATIONS INTO THE AFTN HRS. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A
MAINLY SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER DAY IS SHAPING UP. FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A DEEP MIXING DAY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER BUILDING TO TOWARD
750MB. THIS YIELDS MAX TEMPS INTO 80-85 RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH PREVAILING S/SW
WINDS. A NUMBER OF HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THIS IS INCREASINGLY INDICATED BY HOURLY
RUC13 MODEL RUNS. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO
STILL ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO GET IN ON THE
WARMTH TODAY AS WELL. DEEP MIXING WILL AID IN LOWERING DWPTS THIS
AFTN. INCORPORATED MIXED LAYER DWPTS INTO THE FCST WHICH RESULTS IN
DWPTS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR...AND THIS PUTS
MIN RH DOWN AROUND 30PCT. THE DEEP MIXING SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY
WINDS INTO THE 20-30MPH RANGE FOR A TIME WHERE RH IS LOWEST.
FORTUNATELY...YESTERDAYS RAINFALL AND NEAR SATURATED SFC LAYER/DEW
FORMATION OVERNIGHT WILL MITIGATE SOME OF THE FIRE WX CONCERNS. ONE
LAST ISSUE FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION. GFS
SHOWS MLCAPE UPWARDS OF AROUND 500J/KG OVER ROUGHLY THE W HALF TODAY
WHILE THE NAM IS BIT HIGHER TO 500-900J/KG. THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION (A SIMPLE LOOK AT K INDEX SHOWS
VALUES UP TO AROUND 30 ON THE GFS AND A LITTLE HIGHER WITH THE NAM).
HOWEVER...GIVEN 40-60M HEIGHT RISES AT 500MB TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING APPROACHING...WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY PCPN MENTION.
AS OPPOSED TO PREVIOUS DAYS MODEL RUNS...MOST MODELS NOW SHOW A DRY
DAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE DRY FCST. THAT
SAID...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AS THAT COULD TRIGGER ISOLD LATE AFTN CONVECTION.
TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS.
SIGNIFICANT BUILD UP OF INSTABILITY TODAY COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
JET DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONG CONVECTION SOMEWHERE OVER NE/SD/IA/SRN MN LATER THIS AFTN.
THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GROW INTO AN MCS TONIGHT THAT WILL RIDE
ENE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ENE TRACKING SHORTWAVE. WHILE SVR THREAT
SHOULD PASS S OF THE FCST AREA CLOSER TO MAX INSTABILITY AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR STRONGER STORMS
TO SLIP INTO SRN UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW...PREFER THE LOOK OF
THE 00Z REGIONAL GEM WITH RESPECT TO EXPECTED MCS
DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT. THIS MODEL BRINGS SHRA/TSRA INTO MAINLY
CNTRL/ERN UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGH RES NAM WINDOW IS SIMILAR
TO THE GEM THOUGH A BIT FARTHER N THAN THE GEM. BEING ON THE NRN END
OF THE MCS...HVY RAINFALL MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...BUT
THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION/STRUCTURE OF THE MCS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
SMALL DISTURBANCES WILL PLAGUE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL
REMAIN DIFFICULT TO TIME. THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE
NEAR THE WI BORDER.
WINDS TUESDAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10KTS...BUT THE DIRECTION IS STILL
IN QUESTION. THIS IN BECAUSE OF THE VARIED PLACEMENT OF A WEAK SFC
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE 16/00Z NAM PLACES THIS FEATURE
OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AT 12Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE CANADIAN IS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.P....AND THE 15/12Z ECMWF IS APPROX 160MI S OF
THE NAM. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND...AND LIKE AS STATED ABOVE
WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10KTS...SO DO NOT EXPECT TOO MANY PROBLEMS
WITH THIS SOLUTION BEFORE THE RIDGE PUSHES IN FROM THE NW IN THE
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT.
OVERALL...LOOK FOR A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
THE 500MB RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST W OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING...AS THE SFC RIDGE STRENGTHENS IT/S HOLD OVER UPPER
MI. EXPECT E-NE WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING FOG ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE FROM N TO S
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WX WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF AND ON
MAINLY NEAR THE WI BORDER...CLOSER TO THE BETTER MOISTURE.
WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...IN RESPONSE TO
THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE E
HALF OF ONTARIO AND THE NEARING LOW ACROSS NE AND SD. STILL...THE E
FLOW SHOULD STILL KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH MORE THAN THE MID 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AS 850MB TEMPS LINGER BETWEEN 10-13C. THE
SFC LOW OVER S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT WITH A SLIGHT E PUSH AS THE
500MB WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS AT 00Z FRIDAY KICKS SLIGHTLY NNE TOWARD
MN.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP /AT LEAST W AND CENTRAL/
WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT E AREAS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FCST
FRIDAY...IF RAIN/CLOUDS HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE FCST SOLUTIONS IS SIGNIFICANT FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY LARGE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
UNDER A DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE A COMPLEX OF
SHRA/TSTMS THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND UPPER
MI WILL BE ON THE NRN END OF THE COMPLEX. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FALL
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT KIWD AS WINDS MAY SWING AROUND
TO AN UPSLOPE NW DIRECTION AROUND SUNRISE. WITH HEAVIER PCPN AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS MORE LIKELY TO AFFECT KSAW...INCLUDED VCTS LATE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS. THESE LIGHTER WINDS...MOSTLY UNDER 20KT...WILL
CONTINUE THRU TUE. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A CLUSTER OF
SHRA/TSTMS PASSING THRU WI AND AT LEAST PARTS OF UPPER MI LATE
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...THERE MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS FOR A TIME
LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. FROM LATE TUE THRU FRI...LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL BECOME SITUATED BTWN A HUDSON BAY HIGH AND A LOW PRES TROF
SLOWLY ADVANCING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY
WINDS LATER TUE THRU FRI. WHILE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER
20KT...THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
WRN PART OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MN N SHORE DUE TO
COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. OTHERWISE...WINDS OVERALL COULD BE
STRONGER DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRES AND LOW PRES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
648 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS TRYING TO INITIATE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA
ON THE NOSE OF A 45-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH IS ALSO
COINCIDENT WITH THE INCREASE OF GULF MOISTURE AS THETAE ADVECTION
CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH DAYBREAK AND BECOME A
CLUSTER OF POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD HAVE SOME
LARGE HAIL YET THIS MORNING. RAP CONTINUES TO MOVE THIS INTO
PRIMARILY NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT AS DAYTIME
HEATING BEGINS AFTER SUNRISE...COULD SEE A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL HAVE UP TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF STORMS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...BUT JUST 20
TO 30 PERCENT SOUTHWARD ACROSS REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH A PSEUDO WARM WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW...WHICH IS ALSO PRIMARILY THE LEADING EDGE
OF UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS THAT WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION TODAY. H85 DEWPOINT MOISTURE ALSO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASES
THROUGH THE DAY...RESULTING IN HIGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...
COMBINED WITH DEEP BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS. AFTER THE MORNING
ACTIVITY...THERE MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO BREAK...WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON THAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING. BY THEN...THE REAL WARM FRONT COULD BE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH VERY HIGH
INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES FROM 2000-4000 J/KG SHOULD ALLOW FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL TO DEVELOP WITHIN SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BELIEVE THE REAL TORNADO THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE IN OUR FAR
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT SAY BETWEEN KOMA
AND SUX...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SOUTHWARD FROM THE FRONT. WHATEVER DEVELOPS
WOULD PROBABLY MOSTLY BE OVER BY 06Z...WITH FOCUS SHIFTING EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY THEN.
SPC DOES HAVE THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND
HAVE NO DOUBT WE`LL HAVE WATCHES ISSUED AT SOME POINT. COULD SEE A
WATCH YET THIS MORNING FOR HAIL THAT MIGHT CLIP PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...THEN ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREAFTER...WE`RE LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF HOT AND HUMID DAYS FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE LOWER/MID 90S TUESDAY...AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...SHOULD SEE
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. AND WHILE THIS IS
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...IT WILL BE THE FIRST REALLY HOT/HUMID
DAY WE`VE EXPERIENCED THIS YEAR. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
WILL NOT OFFER MUCH COOLING EITHER.
THE SREF AND GFS DO HINT AT ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY EVENING...
BUT BELIEVE WE WILL BE EFFECTIVELY CAPPED WITH H70 TEMPS OF +11
TO +12 ACROSS THE AREA...THUS WILL LEAVE IT DRY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MUGGY CONDITIONS AND LOWS ONLY IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.
WEDNESDAY IS ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND JUST
AS HUMID AS TUESDAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AGAIN IN THE UPPER
90S. THERE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER WAVE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL
HOLD OFF IN OUR AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FEEL THAT SREF MAY
BE TOO QUICK ON DEVELOPMENT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING IN ANOTHER GOOD
CHANCE OF STORMS WITH 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE...WHICH PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND EAST/OUT OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER WAVE MATERIALIZES ON THE GFS BY FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS GENERALLY DRY...SO
CONFIDENCE THAT FAR OUT IS TYPICALLY LOW. WILL OPT FOR A DRY
FORECAST SATURDAY...BUT MODELS DO HINT AT ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IN
THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE RETURN OF DEEP MOISTURE...
FOG...STRATUS AND CONVECTION ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
WINDS. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS
MORNING. KOFK SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE AND WILL INCLUDE A
TEMPO GROUP THERE SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AT KOMA AND
KLNK WITH SOME MVFR/IFR/PATCHY LIFT CIGS AND VSBYS. THERE MAY BE A
BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS MORNING WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AGAIN. INSTABILITY GREATLY INCREASES
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL NEED TO WATCH STRENGTH OF STORMS FOR HAIL
AND HIGH WINDS. IF WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MOVE IN...THESE MAY
LIMIT TSTORM COVERAGE AT KLNK AND KOMA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY...WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 25 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
937 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE MORNING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE DAKOTAS PARTICULARLY WELL...BUT THINK THE
TREND OF SCATTERED ACTIVITY SLOWLY RAMPING UP OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS FOR TODAY...BUT
KEPT THE OVERALL INCREASING FROM 20S TO 50S GOING. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP TEMPS ON TRACK TO RISE INTO THE 70S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
UPDATED THE POPS ACROSS SE ND AS 850MB MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS
BEGUN IN EARNEST...DEVELOPING SOME ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS NE SD.
OTHERWISE STILL EXPECTING MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IN THE 17Z TO 20Z
TIME FRAME ACROSS SE ND AND MOVING INTO WCNTRL MN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING LIGHTER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH...UP TO HWY 2...FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGER CELLS ARE STILL EXPECTED NEAR THE ND SD BORDER WHERE
STRONGER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER SHEAR WILL RESIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH THE THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA TODAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH GOOD SOLAR TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMPS
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SOUTH. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NORTH
ON 20 TO 30KT 850MB JET AS PWATS GO FROM AROUND 0.75" AT 12Z TO
1.5" BY 21Z. THIS INCREASE OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDING ALONG IN THE 500MB SW FLOW SHOULD INITIATE CONVECTION IN C
SD EARLY THIS AFTN...IDEA REINFORCED BY CURRENT RAP AND HRRR RUNS.
ML CAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG ALONG THE SD ND BORDER AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KTS SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE. HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES REMAINS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN...AS THE MOISTURE SOURCE MAYBE CUT OFF FROM THE EXPECTED
CONVECTION ACROSS E SD AND S MN.
THE CHC FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA ON TUESDAY AS INSTABILITY/MOISTURE PERSIST UNDER THE
SW FLOW AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN THEIR SLIGHT RISK ON THE DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...500MB RIDGING PUSHES BRIEFLY INTO
THE AREA MAKING WEDNESDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS 850 TEMPS
APPROACH 20C. BY WEDNESDAY PM THE 500MB UPPER LOW WORKS CLOSER TO
THE FA WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BRING A BAND OF PCPN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN BULK SHEAR VALUES
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO BE
SEVERE...AREA IN THE SLIGHT RISK ON SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION TO START THE PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS/GEM/DGEX
PROPAGATE THIS FEATURE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
PRECIP ON THURSDAY...BUT LESS CERTAINTY FRIDAY-SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW PROPAGATES
EASTWARD. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
VFR TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. ADDED VCTS AT FAR
THIS AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE LOWER ELSEWHERE. CONVECTION ENDS WITH
SUNDOWN THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
653 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
UPDATED THE POPS ACROSS SE ND AS 850MB MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS
BEGUN IN EARNEST...DEVELOPING SOME ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS NE SD.
OTHERWISE STILL EXPECTING MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IN THE 17Z TO 20Z
TIME FRAME ACROSS SE ND AND MOVING INTO WCNTRL MN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING LIGHTER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH...UP TO HWY 2...FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGER CELLS ARE STILL EXPECTED NEAR THE ND SD BORDER WHERE
STRONGER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER SHEAR WILL RESIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH THE THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA TODAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH GOOD SOLAR TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMPS
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SOUTH. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NORTH
ON 20 TO 30KT 850MB JET AS PWATS GO FROM AROUND 0.75" AT 12Z TO
1.5" BY 21Z. THIS INCREASE OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDING ALONG IN THE 500MB SW FLOW SHOULD INITIATE CONVECTION IN C
SD EARLY THIS AFTN...IDEA REINFORCED BY CURRENT RAP AND HRRR RUNS.
ML CAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG ALONG THE SD ND BORDER AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KTS SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE. HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES REMAINS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN...AS THE MOISTURE SOURCE MAYBE CUT OFF FROM THE EXPECTED
CONVECTION ACROSS E SD AND S MN.
THE CHC FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA ON TUESDAY AS INSTABILITY/MOISTURE PERSIST UNDER THE
SW FLOW AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN THEIR SLIGHT RISK ON THE DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...500MB RIDGING PUSHES BRIEFLY INTO
THE AREA MAKING WEDNESDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS 850 TEMPS
APPROACH 20C. BY WEDNESDAY PM THE 500MB UPPER LOW WORKS CLOSER TO
THE FA WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BRING A BAND OF PCPN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN BULK SHEAR VALUES
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO BE
SEVERE...AREA IN THE SLIGHT RISK ON SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION TO START THE PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS/GEM/DGEX
PROPAGATE THIS FEATURE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
PRECIP ON THURSDAY...BUT LESS CERTAINTY FRIDAY-SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW PROPAGATES
EASTWARD. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
VFR TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. ADDED VCTS AT FAR
THIS AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE LOWER ELSEWHERE. CONVECTION ENDS WITH
SUNDOWN THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1109 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ATOP THE SOUTHEAST REGION
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM...A LARGE PATCH OF ALTOCU CAN BE SEEN IN METARS AND ON
VIS SAT IMAGERY...DISSIPATING UNDER A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
ATOP THE CWFA THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS ARE INDICATIVE OF PLENTY OF
MOISTURE FOR CONVECTION TODAY. DESPITE A FAIRLY SUPPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC
SETUP...GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON SCATTERED SHWRS
AND TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN. I BLENDED IN THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING
MODEL CONSENSUS AND SMOOTHED IT OUT...RESULTING IN HIGH-CHC TO EVEN
SOME LIKELY POP IN THE NC MTNS...AND GENERALLY LOW-END CHC TO SLGT
CHC ACRS THE PIEDMONT. THE 12Z GSO AND FFC SOUNDINGS SHOW 2500+ J/KG
OF CAPE WITH NO CIN BY PEAK HEATING. THERE IS ALSO SOME DRY AIR
ABOVE 700 MB ON THE GSO SNDG...BUT MID LVL MOISTURE LOOKS TO PIVOT
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SO DCAPE MAY ONLY BE MODEST THIS AFTN...BUT
STILL ENUF FOR A WET MICROBURST THREAT. THE LATEST DAY 1 SPC
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS A 5% FOR DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR MOST OF THE
CWFA. AS FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN PULSE CONVECTIVE MODE...THE SHEAR
LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK. THE LAST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS HINT AT A COLD POOL
ORGANIZING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE...DRIFTING TOWARD THE CHARLOTTE METRO
AREA. THIS MAY HELP ENHANCE COVERAGE THERE. ABOVE NORMAL AFTN HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED.
DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD ASH OUT ONE TO TWO HOURS FOLLOWING SUNSET
THIS EVENING. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATE LESS POTENTIAL
FOR FOG TONIGHT...BUT FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER AREAS OF AFTERNOON
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM SHOULD RANGE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...THE FORECAST LOOKS VERY PERSISTENT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THAT MEANS WE CAN EXPECT TYPICAL DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CREEP UP A DEGREE OR SO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND LOW TEMPS SHOULD
BE SEASONALLY MILD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT MONDAY...SUMMER...SUMMER...SUMMER...OR SO IT WILL
FEEL LIKE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN AND FLATTEN AT THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW A STEADY PARADE OF VORTICITY
CENTERS MOVING PAST OVER THE TOP OF THE FLATTENING RIDGE...EACH OF
WHICH COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCS OR REMNANTS THEREOF...BUT ALAS
ALL THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE TREND IN THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
WEEKEND IS TO NOT BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH SUGGESTS LESS OF A CHANCE OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE FCST WAS UPDATED TO
RAISE THE POP INTO THE CHANCE RANGE BASED ON SLIGHTLY BETTER
COVERAGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND TO COME MORE INTO LINE WITH
NEIGHBORING FCSTS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER...MVFR FOG/HZ COULD LINGER ACROSS THE TERMINAL UNTIL
13Z. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING WILL VEER TO WEST-SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NAM INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP OVER
THE EAST FACING SLOPES AROUND MID DAY...TRACKING EAST WITH A COLD
POOL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION APPEARS LIMITED TO THE 22Z TO 01Z TIME WINDOW ACROSS THE
I-77 CORRIDOR.
ELSEWHERE...AT 1030Z...KGSP RADAR DETECTED A FEW LIGHT SHRA ACROSS
THE WESTERN NC MTNS. THESE SHRAS APPEAR SUPPORTED BY WEAK INSTABILITY
AND LLVL SOUTH FLOW. IN THE NEAR TERM...THE SHRA SHOULD NOT IMPACT
THE WESTERN CAROLINA TERMINALS. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING. BASED ON RECENT MORNING OBS...FOG OR
HAZE MAY TEMPO IMPACT TERMINALS UNTIL 13Z. THE NAM INDICATES THAT
DEEP CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES AROUND MID
DAY...TRACKING EAST WITH A COLD POOL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WARRANTS A PROB30 WITHIN THE 19Z TO 24Z
WINDOW AT KAVL AND KHKY.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE MTNS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN TSRA AND ALSO IN THE MTN
VALLEYS EACH MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM OVER AREAS OF
RECENT RAINFALL.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...ARK/NED
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...NED
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
623 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE AND MOVING INTO THE
COASTAL AREAS. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT MAINLY THE KGLS AREA
THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE KCLL...
KUTS...AND KCXO SITES ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY AROUND 14Z. VFR IS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. A REPEAT IS LIKELY TONIGHT...WITH MVFR
DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z IN THE NORTH WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE
COAST.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AT 07Z...LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SE U.S.. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS TIGHTER THAN
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AND WIND SPEEDS WERE A BIT HIGHER. CLOUD COVER
IS ALSO MORE PREVALENT AND TEMPS ARE WARMER. AT 850 MB...THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO WESTERN
MISSOURI. 850 TEMPS WERE BETWEEN 18-20 C. A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. AT 500 MB...A WEAK TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDED FROM A WEAK S/WV OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO ABOUT
LAREDO. AT 250 MB...WINDS DID NOT SHOW THE SPLITTING STRUCTURE AS
ADVERTISED YESTERDAY. THE GFS AND NAM STILL CONT TO SHOW A
SPLITTING JET DEVELOPING LATER TODAY WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A
ZONAL FLOW. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 1.5-1.6 INCHES
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S. A SUBTLE CAP WAS NOTED
AROUND 700 MB AND THE SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY ABOVE 700 MB. THINK
SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. STILL CONCERNED THAT THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TODAY. THE RAP13 AND HRRR ARE BOTH
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES TODAY BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO RAISE POPS. WILL KEEP 20 POPS IN PLACE TODAY.
ON TUESDAY...THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING TO 1.9 INCHES. CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S
WITH DRY AIR AGAIN NOTED IN THE SOUNDING. THE GFS AND NAM BRING A
WEAK DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT AGAIN
WITH DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB...CAN`T GO MUCH HIGHER THAN 20 POPS FOR
NOW. PWATS REMAIN AROUND 1.80 INCHES ON WED WITH WEAK CAPPING
NOTED AT 700 MB AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING AT 600 MB AND ABOVE. WILL
AGAIN JUST CARRY 20 POPS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO TEXAS ON THURSDAY-SUNDAY.
850 TEMPS STILL WARM FROM 16 C TO 19 C BUT 500 HEIGHTS SHOW ONLY A
MINOR INCREASE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FCST AND SUBTLE WARMING
TREND. 43
MARINE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS THIS WEEK. CAUTION
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS
THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM SHOULD PERSIST AS WELL
THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
PERIODS.
40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 93 76 92 75 91 / 20 10 20 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 93 78 91 78 91 / 20 10 20 10 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 89 80 88 80 88 / 20 20 20 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1121 AM MDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON JUN 16 2014
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE EXPECTED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. DRY WEST TO SW FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVR THE AREA TODAY AND
PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. SFC WINDS WL INCREASE IN ALL AREAS
TODAY...WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING SUSTAINED AFTERNOON WINDS IN MOST
AREAS OF 20 KTS OR HIGHER. HRRR AND RAP13 INDICATING AFTERNOON
GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS OVR THE SERN PLAINS...AND AROUND 35 KTS IN THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY. WITH WIND GUSTS THIS STRONG...WL ADD BLOWING DUST
TO THE FORECAST FOR THE SERN PLAINS AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
LOCALIZED LOW VSBYS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE BLOWING
DUST.
WHEN THE WINDS PICK UP LATER TODAY...THE SFC DEW POINTS WL QUICKLY
DRY OUT...AND MIN RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
10 PERCENT OVR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THERE WL BE WIDESPREAD WEATHER
CONDITIONS REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS WITH REGARDS TO FIRE
WEATHER...HOWEVER THE ONLY AREA THAT CURRENTLY HAS FUELS THAT ARE
CONSIDERED DRY...IS EL PASO COUNTY. THEREFORE THE ONLY LOCATION
THAT WL BE COVERED WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IS EL PASO COUNTY.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY OVR THE SERN
PLAINS...AND WL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY SHOULD SEE HIGH AROUND AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT MON JUN 16 2014
...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EARLY IN PERIOD THEN MOISTENING UP FOR
THE WEEKEND...
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR WILL
BE OVER THE REGION BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
KEEPS HOT AND DRY SW FLOW OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW...FUELS ARE
MOIST ALL AREAS EXCEPT EL PASO COUNTY. HOWEVER...IF FUELS DRY OUTTHEN
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT TUESDAY
FOR EL PASO COUNTY AND WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY BY THE
DAY SHIFT LATER TODAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER ON WED...THAT THE
DRYLINE MAY BECOME ACTIVE OVER THE FAR E PLAINS. BOTH THE 00Z NAM
AND EC HAVE A PRETTY POTENT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS N CO AND
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD SVR TSRA OVER THE FAR E PLAINS. SPC HAS
MENTIONED THIS IN THERE DAY3 OUTLOOK. LATEST 06Z NAM RUN HAS
TROUGH EVEN SHARPER...AND THUS A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME STRONG
THUNDER OVER THE FAR SE PLAINS
OVERALL DRY WX EXPECTED THU AND FRI AS COOLER DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND WED NIGHTS TROUGH PASSAGE.
EC AND GFS HINT THAT THINGS SHOULD MOISTEN UP FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
EC MORE BULLISH ON PRECIP CHANCES. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE IS
MAINLY BEING FORCED BY THE LOW LVLS (PATTERN ALOFT IS PRETTY
FLAT)...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND SHUNTS HIGHER
LLVL MOISTURE (50-60DWPT AIR) INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...HAVE
WIDESPREAD LOW END POPS OVER THE REGION...BUT THESE VALUES MAY NEED
TO BE BUMPED UP...ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY...IF THE EC SOLUTION
VERIFIES. /HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT MON JUN 16 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE THREE
MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS. STRONG SW WINDS WITH GUSTS
OF 30-40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING...THEN START UP
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AFTER 16Z. THESE WIND GUSTS WILL CREATE
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. IN
ADDITION...SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN NW NEW MEXICO AND CENTRAL
ARIZONA HAS MADE IT IN TO COLORADO DUE TO THE STRONG SW FLOW
ALOFT. MOORE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ226-227.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ226-227.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
401 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA...ALONG
WITH CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 401 PM EDT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS OUR
AREA...DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH READINGS IN THE
40S AND 50S. MEANWHILE...ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS ACROSS WESTERN NY ARE IN THE MID 60S. THIS
MORE HUMID AIR IS ON ITS WAY TOWARDS OUR REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACCOMPANYING THIS WEAK BOUNDARY AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SO FAR TODAY HAS REMAINED
NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA. AS WE GO THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...THE BOUNDARY WILL GET CLOSER TO OUR AREA AND THERE WILL BE
THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 16Z 3KM HRRR AND THE 12Z RUN OF OUR LOCAL
HIRESWRF SHOW ACTIVITY APPROACHING OUR AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING...BUT MAINLY WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
INTO TONIGHT. WE WILL GO WITH LOW POPS OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY
IS LIMITED...SO MOST ACTIVITY WON/T HAVE THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH
IT.
ALTHOUGH SKIES HAVE BEEN SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS FOR THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING AS MUCH AS
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOKS TO MAINLY BE FROM THE
UPPER 50S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE MID 60S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA BY SUNRISE
TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF OUR
AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEARING SKIES...WARM TEMPS...AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S FOR VALLEY AREAS WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING WITHIN THE NW FLOW FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES REGARDING EXACTLY HOW AND WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
OUR AREA. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO ACCOMPANY THE
BOUNDARY. TODAY/S 12Z RUNS OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY BE MOVING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSES TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
WHILE EVERYWHERE STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE PEAK HEATING ON WEDNESDAY.
STILL...THE TIMING COULD CHANGE...AND PARTS OF OUR AREA COULD HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ON WED IF THE
FRONT DOESN/T PROGRESS THROUGH AS FAST AS ANTICIPATED OR STALLS
OVER OUR REGION. THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...SO SEVERAL INGREDIENTS WOULD BE
IN PLACE FOR STRONGER STORMS IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLOWS
DOWN.
MIN TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK MILD AND MUGGY WITH 60S
EVERYWHERE. MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM WITH MID 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON WED NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON JUST
HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WE HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE FOR NOW...SUGGESTING 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY...WITH INCREASING POPS TOWARD
NEXT WEEK. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...STRETCHING FROM LOW PRESSURE
OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WILL MOVE
VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOW ITSELF WILL BEGIN TO TRACK
EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH THE FRONT
OUT AHEAD OF IT STRUGGLING TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR
REGION.
THE FIRST DECENT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...
BUT SHOWERS...ALONG WITH A GOOD LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
BE THE MOST LIKELY ON MONDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL FILL IN
GRADUALLY...TOO...WITH MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS BY LATE SUNDAY.
BREAKS IN THE SUNSHINE ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON IF THE WARM
FRONT GETS CLOSE ENOUGH...RESULTING IN INCREASED INSTABILITY...AND
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY ON SOUTH AND
WEST.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM
AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...
TO THE LOWER 80S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY WHICH WILL BE LARGELY
INFLUENCED BY DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THEN FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...IT WILL BE A FAIRLY STEADY PATTERN OF HIGHS FROM
AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS
AND GREENS...TO THE UPPER 70S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY. THE MERCURY
MAY BREAK 80 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY ON
FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S RANGE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOW READINGS UP IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S RANGE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS IN ALBANY DURING THE
PERIOD ARE AROUND 80 DEGREES...WITH UPPER 50S FOR LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL THE TAF SITES PRIOR TO 17/04Z.
CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING AND LOWERING PRIOR TO SUNSET WITH A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK IN THE 10-12 KFT AGL RANGE IMPACTING THE TERMINALS.
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS MAY MOVE IN SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
VCSH GROUPS HAVE BEEN USED FOR THIS SHOWER OR EVEN ISOLD -TSRA
THREAT. THE SKIES MAY CLEAR A BIT TOWARDS 08Z SO THAT SOME MVFR MIST
IS POSSIBLE AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
THE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE BUT MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
5-8 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AT LESS
THAN 5 KTS... EXCEPT AT KALB...WHERE SOME FUNNELING UP THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY MAY KEEP THE SOUTHERLY WINDS GOING AT CLOSE TO 10 KTS.
WINDS SHOULD BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A
PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 80 TO 95
PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH A LIGHT TO CALM WIND. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN TOMORROW WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH RH VALUES RETURNING TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ONLY DROPPING TO 50 TO 65 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND RAIN SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE HSA.
AFTER A DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...SOME MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
QUESTIONS STILL REMAINING ON JUST HOW ORGANIZED ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM. ALTHOUGH THERE
SHOULD BE NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC ISSUES...LOCALIZED ISSUES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
147 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.MORNING UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014/
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING AS CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
ON TRACK. MORNING SOUNDING SURFACE ANALYSIS SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS... BUT HIGH PRESSURE
INFLUENCE SHOULD HELP HOLD STORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. A WEAK SUBTLE
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUGGEST
AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF A DALTON TO PEACHTREE CITY TO AMERICUS LINE
MAY HAVE SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCES... ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM
COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE TODAY. CONVECTIVE TEMP IS IN THE
LOWER 90S... SO SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP BY 3-4 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. /39
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY PERSISTS ACROSS CENTRAL GA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE SE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...BUT A LEE TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO SET UP ON TUESDAY.
IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLOUD DEBRIS STILL AROUND FROM THE EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE BY SUNRISE.
DIURNAL CU SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR IS NOT REALLY
PINGING ONE SPECIFIC PLACE FOR INITIATION. HOWEVER...THE DISSIPATING
BOUNDARY MAY FOCUS SOME ACTIVITY WITH OUTFLOWS CONTINUING TO FOCUS
ANY STORMS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE GETTING STRONGER ALOFT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED IS FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WITH UPPER RIDGING DOMINATING THE AREA AND THE TAIL END OF
A WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY MIDWEEK. THIS ALONG WITH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. EXPECT
AN INCREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 90S IN
SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS WANTING TO BACK OFF JUST A TAD ON TEMPS
TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
TDP
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
A DIRTY MID-UPPER RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY... WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE TIME
BETWEEN 20-24Z AT ATL. EXPECT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE BKN050 BY 18Z EACH AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD GREATLY
DIMINISH BY 02Z WITH FEW100 TO SKC EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. PATCHY MVFR
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT FOR AREAS THAT SEE SOME RAIN. WINDS
TRICKY... BUT SHOULD SEE L&V OVERNIGHT... MAINLY SSW AT 7KTS OR LESS
ON TUE.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND TSRA EFFECTING ANY AIRPORT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 93 71 92 71 / 40 40 30 20
ATLANTA 91 73 92 74 / 30 30 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 87 65 86 66 / 40 40 30 20
CARTERSVILLE 92 71 93 70 / 20 20 30 20
COLUMBUS 94 73 94 74 / 30 30 20 10
GAINESVILLE 91 70 91 72 / 40 40 30 20
MACON 93 71 94 70 / 30 30 20 10
ROME 92 69 93 70 / 20 20 30 10
PEACHTREE CITY 92 70 92 70 / 40 40 20 20
VIDALIA 92 70 93 73 / 30 30 20 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1258 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1123 AM CDT
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST. VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE INFLUX OF RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MO/CENTRAL IL. CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AND
RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CINH TO THE
LFC...WHERE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE IS PRESENT ABOVE.
WHILE NOTHING OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
UPSTREAM INTO MO...IT MAY NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
STORMS BY MID-AFTERNOON IN JUST THE GENERAL LOW-LEVEL WAA FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH AMOUNT OF CAPE...THERE IS A
CONDITIONAL RISK OF A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO.
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS TRICKY. CONVECTION NEAR THE NE/IA
BORDER IS PRIMARILY ELEVATED AND NOT REALLY CONGEALING OR BECOMING
ROOTED LOWER AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE IN TIME /SEE SPC MCD/. UPSCALE GROWTH IS EXPECTED INTO
SOUTHERN MN WITH EVENTUAL CONGEALING INTO AN MCS THIS EVE INTO
OVERNIGHT...WHICH A HIGH AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING GUIDANCE
SHOWS. WHILE MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE DOES BRING THE BRUNT OF THAT
NORTH OF THE AREA...THE PATTERN...SLOPE OF THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT...AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WOULD INDICATE THAT MAYBE THE
SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS TOO FAR NORTH...AND AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE COMPLEX...OR WHAT BACKBUILDS AGAINST THE LOW-
LEVEL JET NOSE WOULD EVOLVE INTO FAR NORTHERN IL LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WOULD GREATLY INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES...AS
WELL AS CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL...ON TUESDAY. NEEDLESS
TO SAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN MAINLY LOW. IF
NO TO LITTLE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 95 TO 100 COULD ENCOMPASS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING CHICAGO. WHILE NOT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THE FIRST READINGS THAT WARM IN A SEASON CAN HAVE MORE
IMPACT. SO SOMETHING WORTH NOTING.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
308 AM CDT
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SPINNING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW FOLLOWING ALONG. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCS EAST THEN SOUTH THEN
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
SPREADING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES
TRAVERSING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BASE AND TO ITS EAST.
THIS WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO TONIGHT. THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH
WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE
UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TODAY BUT ENERGY WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD FROM ITS BASE AND HELP TO AMPLIFY UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. THE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WILL MORE OR
LESS WASH OUT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS TO ITS EAST. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING FOR STRONG WARM ADVECTION WHICH WILL
RESULT IN H85 TEMPS INCREASING FROM AROUND +14 ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS MORNING TO +18 OR BETTER BY TONIGHT. A VERY WARM DAY IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S. AN
INITIALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ALLOWING A LAKE BREEZE TO SET UP WHICH WILL BRING
SOME COOLING TO IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE AREAS AND A BIT FURTHER INLAND
ACROSS LAKE COUNTY ILLINOIS. DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THESE AREAS WILL
LIKELY STILL BE QUITE WARM GIVEN THE WARM START TO THE DAY...BUT
LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL LIKELY CUT BACK INTO THE 70S IF NOT A BIT
COOLER IN SPOTS. AN INFLUX OF BETTER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATER
TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE IT
WILL BE INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MORE SO THIS
EVENING. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY DO NOT LOOK GREAT BUT WATER
VAPOR SHOWS SEVERAL SUBTLE WAVES MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE INFLUX OF
BETTER THETA-E AIR AND WARM ASCENT ALREADY IN PLACE...AS WELL AS
LITTLE IF ANY CAPPING BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE NUMBER OF
LARGER SCALE FACTORS SUPPORTING CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THE AREA OF
SLIGHT POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS NOTED ABOVE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PUSH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD ACROSS IOWA AND MINNESOTA AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES
ACROSS THAT AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA/IOWA/MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND ORGANIZE INTO
AN MCS BY EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS IOWA AND INTO
FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT BRINGING A STEADY FEED OF MOISTURE
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. 850-300 MB
THICKNESS RIDGE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA TO WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION
OF THE THICKNESS GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS.
THIS AND THE SHIFTING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
ORIENTATION SHIFTING THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUPPORT AN
OVERALL EAST TO SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF WHATEVER MCS RESULTS FROM THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. THIS MAY BE MANIFESTED AS MORE OF A
SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT VS. STORM MOTION GIVEN THAT BETTER MOISTURE
WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION...BACKWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS
SUPPORT THIS SOUTHWARD EXPANSION IDEA. HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWS A
MYRIAD OF SOLUTIONS SO AT THIS TIME RANGE PREFER TO LEAN MORE
HEAVILY ON THE LARGER SCALE ELEMENTS AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS. THIS
THINKING SUPPORTS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION BEING ACROSS WISCONSIN BUT
SEE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME SORT OF A SOUTHWARD
EXPANSION/PROPAGATION OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER QUESTION BEING HOW FAR
SOUTH AS WELL AS TIMING. WILL TWEAK POPS FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING TO SHOW A SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE OF POPS GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80. HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED TUESDAY. WHATEVER CONVECTION IS AROUND IN THE MORNING
WILL LIKELY END AND IT APPEARS THAT THE REST OF TUESDAY MAY BE DRY
WITH THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THIS MAY ALSO
BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT PLAYS OUT TUESDAY MORNING IN TERMS OF LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES ETC. THAT MAY BE ABLE TO TRIGGER ISOLD/SCATTERED
CONVECTION LATER TUESDAY AS WE WILL STILL BE UNSTABLE. UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/WI LATER TUESDAY MAY BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SO A LAKE BREEZE LOOKS UNLIKELY SO EVEN LAKESHORE AREAS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80...WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 ELSEWHERE WITH A
RATHER STICKY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT STRETCHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE TO THE WEST AS WELL SO IMPULSES
ARE LIKELY TO EMANATE NORTHEASTWARD UP THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
DRIVE WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED WEDNESDAY BUT LESS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ACROSS A LARGER AREA...ESPECIALLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ANY SUBTLE UPPER WAVES. THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THURSDAY
TAKING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT ALONG...WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THE ORIGINAL
STATIONARY BOUNDARY MAY SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS THIS
OCCURS SO CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY DRIVING
CONVECTION FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE ANOTHER SITUATION
WHERE THE LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING SO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LIMITED.
THE UPPER LOW MAY THEN MOVE EASTWARD BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE INTO
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
BUT MUCH OF THE BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL NEED TO BE BETTER
IDENTIFIED AT A SHORTER TIME RANGE AS THE LOCATION OF KEY FEATURES
WILL LARGELY DRIVE THE OUTCOME. WITH A MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE LESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AT TIMES. TEMPS
LOOK TO MODERATE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH COOLER TEMPS MORE
LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE COOL FRONT
PASSES.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* A LAKE BREEZE IS PSBL TODAY WITH WINDS TURNING EAST BEHIND IT AT
ORD.
* CHC TSRA TONIGHT.
* SW WINDS GUSTING TO ARND 25 KT TOMORROW.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THIS IS A MESSY FORECAST PERIOD WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING MANY
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
WHILE A LOW IS OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS ALSO
OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. STORMS ARE FIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND MOST GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT
CONVECTION WELL. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING STRETCHES FROM IOWA
THROUGH MINNESOTA AND IT WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH. THINKING THE MAIN
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH BUT COULD SEE THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CLIP NORTHERN IL. GUIDANCE
IS ALL OVER THE BOARD IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND LOCATION...BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE SYSTEM. AS SUCH PUSHED THE PROB30
BACK BY ANOTHER HOUR IN ALL OF THE TAFS. SOME MODELS FEATURE
SCATTERED CONVECTION LINGERING THROUGH MID MORNING
TOMORROW...PRIMARILY FOR RFD. LEFT ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION OUT
OF THE TAF THOUGH DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.
FOR WINDS...A LAKE BREEZE IS OVER NORTHERN COOK AND LAKE COUNTIES
AND IT IS REMAINING RELATIVELY STATIONARY NOW. THE LATEST OBS
INDICATE SW WINDS ARE GUSTING SO THINKING THE LAKE BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE. BASED ON ITS LOCATION...THE BREEZE WILL NOT
IMPACT MDW. KEPT THE BREEZE IN AT ORD BUT PUSHED THE TIMING BACK.
STILL HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE LAKE BREEZE WILL IMPACT ORD.
SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15
KT. SW WINDS THEN GUST TO ARND 25 KT TOMORROW.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE MAKING IT THROUGH ORD AND TIMING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE LAKE BREEZE WILL NOT IMPACT MDW.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR WITH PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
250 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS ONTARIO LIFTING
A WARM FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE LAKE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST TO THE
MARITIME PROVINCES LATE TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY
SAG BACK SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK
NORTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. EACH DAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT INCLUDING OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME LARGER
THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEXES THAT WILL CREATE A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN THE
WIND FIELD. IN ADDITION...MID 60 AND EVEN 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG FORMING
OVER THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1253 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 943 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2014
Scattered elevated convection continues across south-central
sections of Illinois and Indiana this morning, primarily along and
south of the I-70 corridor. 12z/7am WPC surface analysis indicates
a weak frontal boundary draped across the region: however, it is
very difficult to pick this feature out in the latest
wind/dewpoint field. As the front continues to dissipate, focus
for additional convection will as well. As a result, am only
expecting widely scattered storms across the southern half of the
KILX CWA today. Raised POPs to 40-50 along/south of I-70 this
morning accordingly. Some of the high-res models show a gradual
northward drift with the convection this afternoon, so have
included slight chance POPs as far north as Bloomington later
today.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1253 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2014
Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop near an ill-defined
frontal boundary along a KIRK...to KTAZ...to KLWV line this
afternoon. While this activity may tend to develop/drift northward
later this afternoon, think areal coverage will remain low enough
to keep mention out of TAFs at this time. Fairly robust Cu-field
has already formed, with SCT-BKN clouds at around 3500ft expected
through the afternoon. Any storms that fire will be diurnal in
nature and will dissipate toward sunset, with mostly clear skies
tonight into Tuesday morning. Winds will be southerly at around
10kt this afternoon and tonight, then will become southwesterly
with gusts over 20kt on Tuesday.
Barnes
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2014
SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night
Summer weather to prevail this week as temperatures warm into the
upper 80s and lower 90s through Thu with moist dewpoints in the
upper 60s and lower 70s. 00Z models have trended further north
with convection chances through Wed with strong upper level ridge
building across the eastern states into Wed.
Radar mosaic shows isolated showers and thunderstorms developing
past few hours south of I-72 with weakening front moving se into
central IL and short wave to push east into central/southern IN
during the morning. Airmass is unstable today especially this
afternoon and feel this to support more redevelopment of isolated
convection from I-72 south. HRRR and RAP suggests this
redevelopment this afternoon over central and southern counties.
Highs in the upper 80s to near 90F and humid dewpoints in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.
Convection chances then shift into IA/WI and northern IL tonight
through Wed with stronger focus of low level jet and closer to
upper level lows over northern tier states. SPC has slight risk nw
of Knox and Stark counties tonight and keeps slight risk north of
I-88 on Tue & Tue night. Carried just slight chance of convection
over areas north of Peoria tonight through Wed morning. Then
increase convection chances Wed afternoon and Wed night and
especially Thu into Fri with strong upper level low moving into
the northern plains and upper MS river valley and pushing a front
back south late this week. SPC has slight risk of severe storms
late Wed afternoon and Wed night north of Peoria over Knox, Stark
and Marshall counties. Highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s
through Thu and then starts cooling off a bit late this week and
into the weekend.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday
Stayed close to Allblend for weather from Thu through Sunday with
daily chances of showers and thunderstorms, though perhaps a break
around Sat night. Highs still in the 80s this weekend and then cooler
on Monday.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1125 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1123 AM CDT
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST. VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE INFLUX OF RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MO/CENTRAL IL. CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AND
RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CINH TO THE
LFC...WHERE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE IS PRESENT ABOVE.
WHILE NOTHING OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
UPSTREAM INTO MO...IT MAY NOT TAKE TOO MUCH TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
STORMS BY MID-AFTERNOON IN JUST THE GENERAL LOW-LEVEL WAA FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH AMOUNT OF CAPE...THERE IS A
CONDITIONAL RISK OF A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO.
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS TRICKY. CONVECTION NEAR THE NE/IA
BORDER IS PRIMARILY ELEVATED AND NOT REALLY CONGEALING OR BECOMING
ROOTED LOWER AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE IN TIME /SEE SPC MCD/. UPSCALE GROWTH IS EXPECTED INTO
SOUTHERN MN WITH EVENTUAL CONGEALING INTO AN MCS THIS EVE INTO
OVERNIGHT...WHICH A HIGH AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING GUIDANCE
SHOWS. WHILE MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE DOES BRING THE BRUNT OF THAT
NORTH OF THE AREA...THE PATTERN...SLOPE OF THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT...AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WOULD INDICATE THAT MAYBE THE
SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS TOO FAR NORTH...AND AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE COMPLEX...OR WHAT BACKBUILDS AGAINST THE LOW-
LEVEL JET NOSE WOULD EVOLVE INTO FAR NORTHERN IL LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WOULD GREATLY INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES...AS
WELL AS CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL...ON TUESDAY. NEEDLESS
TO SAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN MAINLY LOW. IF
NO TO LITTLE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 95 TO 100 COULD ENCOMPASS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING CHICAGO. WHILE NOT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THE FIRST READINGS THAT WARM IN A SEASON CAN HAVE MORE
IMPACT. SO SOMETHING WORTH NOTING.
MTF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
308 AM CDT
CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
SPINNING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW FOLLOWING ALONG. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCS EAST THEN SOUTH THEN
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
SPREADING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES
TRAVERSING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BASE AND TO ITS EAST.
THIS WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
RESULT IN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO TONIGHT. THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH
WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE
UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TODAY AND THIS EVENING...THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TODAY BUT ENERGY WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD FROM ITS BASE AND HELP TO AMPLIFY UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. THE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WILL MORE OR
LESS WASH OUT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS TO ITS EAST. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE DAY ALLOWING FOR STRONG WARM ADVECTION WHICH WILL
RESULT IN H85 TEMPS INCREASING FROM AROUND +14 ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS MORNING TO +18 OR BETTER BY TONIGHT. A VERY WARM DAY IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S. AN
INITIALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ALLOWING A LAKE BREEZE TO SET UP WHICH WILL BRING
SOME COOLING TO IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE AREAS AND A BIT FURTHER INLAND
ACROSS LAKE COUNTY ILLINOIS. DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THESE AREAS WILL
LIKELY STILL BE QUITE WARM GIVEN THE WARM START TO THE DAY...BUT
LATE AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL LIKELY CUT BACK INTO THE 70S IF NOT A BIT
COOLER IN SPOTS. AN INFLUX OF BETTER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATER
TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE IT
WILL BE INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MORE SO THIS
EVENING. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY DO NOT LOOK GREAT BUT WATER
VAPOR SHOWS SEVERAL SUBTLE WAVES MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE INFLUX OF
BETTER THETA-E AIR AND WARM ASCENT ALREADY IN PLACE...AS WELL AS
LITTLE IF ANY CAPPING BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...MAY SUPPORT
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE NUMBER OF
LARGER SCALE FACTORS SUPPORTING CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THE AREA OF
SLIGHT POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS NOTED ABOVE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PUSH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD ACROSS IOWA AND MINNESOTA AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PUSHES
ACROSS THAT AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA/IOWA/MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND ORGANIZE INTO
AN MCS BY EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS IOWA AND INTO
FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT BRINGING A STEADY FEED OF MOISTURE
INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. 850-300 MB
THICKNESS RIDGE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA TO WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION
OF THE THICKNESS GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS.
THIS AND THE SHIFTING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
ORIENTATION SHIFTING THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUPPORT AN
OVERALL EAST TO SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT OF WHATEVER MCS RESULTS FROM THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. THIS MAY BE MANIFESTED AS MORE OF A
SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT VS. STORM MOTION GIVEN THAT BETTER MOISTURE
WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION...BACKWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS
SUPPORT THIS SOUTHWARD EXPANSION IDEA. HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWS A
MYRIAD OF SOLUTIONS SO AT THIS TIME RANGE PREFER TO LEAN MORE
HEAVILY ON THE LARGER SCALE ELEMENTS AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS. THIS
THINKING SUPPORTS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION BEING ACROSS WISCONSIN BUT
SEE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME SORT OF A SOUTHWARD
EXPANSION/PROPAGATION OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER QUESTION BEING HOW FAR
SOUTH AS WELL AS TIMING. WILL TWEAK POPS FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING TO SHOW A SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE OF POPS GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80. HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME BETTER
ESTABLISHED TUESDAY. WHATEVER CONVECTION IS AROUND IN THE MORNING
WILL LIKELY END AND IT APPEARS THAT THE REST OF TUESDAY MAY BE DRY
WITH THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THIS MAY ALSO
BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT PLAYS OUT TUESDAY MORNING IN TERMS OF LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES ETC. THAT MAY BE ABLE TO TRIGGER ISOLD/SCATTERED
CONVECTION LATER TUESDAY AS WE WILL STILL BE UNSTABLE. UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS MN/IA/WI LATER TUESDAY MAY BE ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL BE IN PLACE AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SO A LAKE BREEZE LOOKS UNLIKELY SO EVEN LAKESHORE AREAS
SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80...WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 ELSEWHERE WITH A
RATHER STICKY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSITIONED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT STRETCHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE TO THE WEST AS WELL SO IMPULSES
ARE LIKELY TO EMANATE NORTHEASTWARD UP THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
DRIVE WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED WEDNESDAY BUT LESS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ACROSS A LARGER AREA...ESPECIALLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ANY SUBTLE UPPER WAVES. THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY
STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THURSDAY
TAKING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT ALONG...WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THE ORIGINAL
STATIONARY BOUNDARY MAY SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS THIS
OCCURS SO CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY DRIVING
CONVECTION FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE ANOTHER SITUATION
WHERE THE LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING SO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LIMITED.
THE UPPER LOW MAY THEN MOVE EASTWARD BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE INTO
THE WEEKEND. OVERALL THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
BUT MUCH OF THE BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL NEED TO BE BETTER
IDENTIFIED AT A SHORTER TIME RANGE AS THE LOCATION OF KEY FEATURES
WILL LARGELY DRIVE THE OUTCOME. WITH A MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE LESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AT TIMES. TEMPS
LOOK TO MODERATE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH COOLER TEMPS MORE
LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE COOL FRONT
PASSES.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* A LAKE BREEZE IS PSBL TODAY WITH WINDS TURNING EAST BEHIND IT.
BETTER CHANCE OF EAST WINDS AT ORD THAN MDW.
* CHC TSRA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
MOST OF TODAY WILL BE VFR WITH MODEST SW/SSW WINDS. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY NOW LIES ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED
TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-80. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TODAY AT OR BELOW 10 KT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND
SEVERAL MILES INTO COOK COUNTY. FOR NOW ONLY THE HRRR WANTS TO
PUSH THE BOUNDARY ALL THE WAY ACROSS BOTH ORD AND MDW TURNING
WINDS TO THE EAST...WHILE MOST MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY STALLING
IN THE VICINITY OF ORD AND SHY OF MDW. THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SO EXPECT WINDS TO
INCREASE AND SHOULD PUSH THE LAKE BREEZE BACK TOWARDS THE LAKE
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW RESUMING.
THIS EVENING...A LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW KICKING OFF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. MOST GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY STAYING
OVER WISCONSIN...HOWEVER THERE ARE HINTS THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD PROPAGATE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A PROB30 FOR NOW
GIVEN THE LACK OF CERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO PANNING OUT. HI-RES
GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE AND OFFERS LITTLE INSIGHT INTO HOW
CONVECTION MIGHT EVOLVE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN LAKE BREEZE MAKING IT THROUGH THE TERMINALS TODAY.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR WITH PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
250 AM CDT
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK. TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS ONTARIO LIFTING
A WARM FRONT ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE LAKE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST TO THE
MARITIME PROVINCES LATE TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY
SAG BACK SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT BACK
NORTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. EACH DAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT INCLUDING OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME LARGER
THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEXES THAT WILL CREATE A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN THE
WIND FIELD. IN ADDITION...MID 60 AND EVEN 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
LIFTING NORTH INTO THE REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG FORMING
OVER THE RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
141 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
SUMMER WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEK AS A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BRING A FEW
SCATTERED STORMS TODAY...HOWEVER AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALOFT AND ALLOW HOT SUMMER
WEATHER BUILD ACROSS REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 90S FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN 2014.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 951 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
SCATTERED CONVECTION IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...ARCING ROUGHLY FROM THE SOUTHERN INDY METRO BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY AND BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 70S AT 1330Z...WARMER WHERE
RAIN WAS NOT OR HAD NOT FALLEN.
CURRENT CONVECTIVE SETUP REQUIRING SOME CHANGES TO THE MORNING
FORECAST. PRESENCE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY AND A WAVE ALOFT
CONTRIBUTING TO THE STORMS THIS MORNING. MESOANALYSIS INDICATING
AN AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
850MB WINDS AT AROUND 25KTS CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTION AS WELL.
WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO EXPAND NORTH INTO THE REGION. COMBINED WITH
A PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...EXPECT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE TO DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR PROGRESSION OF STORMS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AS CURRENT
EXTRAPOLATION WOULD BRING THESE CELLS INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT HRRR BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY INTO
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES IN VICINITY OF THE REMNANT BOUNDARY BEFORE
WEAKENING STORMS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND REFOCUSING MORE
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED MENTION FOR STORMS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CELLS THAT CAN GET GOING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY BUT OVERALL...AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRIER
THAN THIS MORNING HAS IN MOST AREAS.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS IN THE SOUTH A COUPLE DEGREES WITH
CLOUDS/PRECIP THIS MORNING LIMITING TEMP RISES A BIT. EXPECT A
STEAMY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS
MORNING.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A BIT BETTER IDEA ON THE PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH
MID WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW US TO REMOVE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
GFS AND NAM BOTH ALLOW A LOW ALOFT TO DIG OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RESPONSE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY IS A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL
KEEP ANY PASSING SHORT WAVES WELL NORTH OF INDIANA. THE PATTERN
WILL ALSO ALLOW SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO
FAR TO BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOW 700MB TEMPS SURGING ABOVE 10C...EFFECTIVELY
CAPPING THE COLUMN. FURTHERMORE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES REACH
UNATTAINABLE LEVELS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
KEEP ITS INFLUENCE OVER INDIANA AS WELL. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT
IN HOT...MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND WARM CLEAR NIGHTS. WILL USE A BLEND
ON HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN OUR FIRST 90S OF THE
YEAR ON TUESDAY. WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
REGARDING THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MEAN UPPER RIDGING ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES WITH TWIN UPPER LOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND CANADIAN MARITIMES AS WELL AS OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. HOWEVER...THE EXTENDED MODELS HAVE TIMING
ISSUES REGARDING ANOTHER UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ALL
MODELS EVENTUALLY OPEN UP THIS FEATURE AND PIVOT IT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z OPERATIONAL
ECMWF IS MUCH QUICKER TO DO SO BRINGING THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WHEREAS THE 12Z GFS HOLDS OFF
UNTIL MONDAY BRINGING THE TROUGH THROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BEEN
LESS CONSISTENT AND ITS 00Z RUN WOULD SUGGEST A QUICKER END TO ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTY...WILL STICK WITH PERSISTENCE AND THE
REGIONAL ALLBLEND AND KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AROUND THROUGH THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED AND NOT MESS WITH TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 161800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2014
CAN NOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT RADAR
TRENDS AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE
TOO ISOLATED TO PUT IN ANY OF THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...GOOD
CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY. WOULD
NOT RULE OUT BRIEF FOG ESPECIALLY AT BMG WHERE OVER A HALF AN INCH
OF RAIN FELL THIS MORNING. STILL...TOO FAR OUT AND CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH THAT ANY WILL DEVELOP WITH SOUTH WINDS STAYING UP NEAR 5
KNOTS.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE
AFTER 16Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1237 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
SUMMER WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEK AS A BERMUDA HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL BRING A FEW
SCATTERED STORMS TODAY...HOWEVER AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALOFT AND ALLOW HOT SUMMER
WEATHER BUILD ACROSS REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE 90S FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN 2014.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 951 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
SCATTERED CONVECTION IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING...ARCING ROUGHLY FROM THE SOUTHERN INDY METRO BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY AND BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 70S AT 1330Z...WARMER WHERE
RAIN WAS NOT OR HAD NOT FALLEN.
CURRENT CONVECTIVE SETUP REQUIRING SOME CHANGES TO THE MORNING
FORECAST. PRESENCE OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY AND A WAVE ALOFT
CONTRIBUTING TO THE STORMS THIS MORNING. MESOANALYSIS INDICATING
AN AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
850MB WINDS AT AROUND 25KTS CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTION AS WELL.
WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO EXPAND NORTH INTO THE REGION. COMBINED WITH
A PROGRESSIVE WEAKENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...EXPECT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE TO DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR PROGRESSION OF STORMS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AS CURRENT
EXTRAPOLATION WOULD BRING THESE CELLS INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT HRRR BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY INTO
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES IN VICINITY OF THE REMNANT BOUNDARY BEFORE
WEAKENING STORMS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND REFOCUSING MORE
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED MENTION FOR STORMS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY CELLS THAT CAN GET GOING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY BUT OVERALL...AFTERNOON SHOULD BE DRIER
THAN THIS MORNING HAS IN MOST AREAS.
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS IN THE SOUTH A COUPLE DEGREES WITH
CLOUDS/PRECIP THIS MORNING LIMITING TEMP RISES A BIT. EXPECT A
STEAMY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS
MORNING.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A BIT BETTER IDEA ON THE PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH
MID WEEK WHICH SHOULD ALLOW US TO REMOVE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
GFS AND NAM BOTH ALLOW A LOW ALOFT TO DIG OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RESPONSE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY IS A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL
KEEP ANY PASSING SHORT WAVES WELL NORTH OF INDIANA. THE PATTERN
WILL ALSO ALLOW SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO
FAR TO BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOW 700MB TEMPS SURGING ABOVE 10C...EFFECTIVELY
CAPPING THE COLUMN. FURTHERMORE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES REACH
UNATTAINABLE LEVELS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
KEEP ITS INFLUENCE OVER INDIANA AS WELL. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT
IN HOT...MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND WARM CLEAR NIGHTS. WILL USE A BLEND
ON HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN OUR FIRST 90S OF THE
YEAR ON TUESDAY. WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE LONG TERM ALLOWING AN
UPPER LOW TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL
DIFFER SOME ON EXACT PATH OF UPPER LOW...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
DID KNOCK ALLBLEND/S LIKELY POPS BACK DOWN TO CHANCE CATEGORY DUE
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE CHANCE POPS WILL BE
THE RULE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL
FROM THE UPPER 80S EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S
BY SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW HAS MORE OF AN INFLUENCE.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 161800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2014
CAN NOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT RADAR
TRENDS AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE
TOO ISOLATED TO PUT IN ANY OF THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...GOOD
CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY. WOULD
NOT RULE OUT BRIEF FOG ESPECIALLY AT BMG WHERE OVER A HALF AN INCH
OF RAIN FELL THIS MORNING. STILL...TOO FAR OUT AND CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH THAT ANY WILL DEVELOP WITH SOUTH WINDS STAYING UP NEAR 5
KNOTS.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT TOMORROW ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE
AFTER 16Z.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA/RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
205 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
LOOKS LIKE THE CU IS GETTING SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO START PRODUCING
SOME RETURNS ON RADAR OVER THE JKL CWA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL STILL
BE TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 WITH A BIT BETTER SFC FORCING FROM
THE APPROACHING FRONT AND LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS...BUT DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOALTED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE FINE
TUNED THE GRIDDED FORECAST FOR THIS AND MADE SOME TWEAKS BASED ON
CURRENT T/TD/SKY OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE NATION AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE A
COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. AS A RESULT OF THIS PATTERN...SOUTHWEST FLOW IS SUPPORTING
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ALONG WITH STEAMY
DEWPOINTS. ANY PATCHY FOG THAT WAS OUT THERE EARLIER THIS MORNING
HAS BURNED OFF. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND SOME REMNANT ENERGY...AHEAD OF THAT SFC FRONT. THE HRRR CARRIES
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA...POTENTIALLY STARTING OVER OUR HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. ACCORDINGLY...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT PRIMARILY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALSO ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY TOWARD THE CONSSHORT GUIDANCE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE HIGHS OF
YESTERDAY. FINALLY...MESHED THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS FOR T/TD/SKY
INTO THE GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH FRESHENED ZFP AND HWO.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
AT 3AM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LAKE MICHIGAN ACROSS ILLINOIS
INTO MISSOURI. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL BE FALLING
APART AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY. THIS BIG QUESTION IS HOW WILL
THE REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT EFFECT THE AREA AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY. LOOKING AT THE NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA...
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN ORDER TO BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN
CONVECTION. AT JACKSON THIS AFTERNOON AT 2 PM...THE LIFTED INDEX
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE -4 WITH TOTAL TOTALS OF 48. THE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS STRONG AND THERE IS ONLY A HINT OF A MID LEVEL CAP.
THE KEY TO TODAY IS TRYING TO FIND ANY TRIGGERS TO GET THE CONVECTION
GOING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING ANYTHING DEVELOP WILL BE NORTH OF I
64 AND ALONG THE VA BORDER. AS A SIDEBAR...SOME CONVECTION MAY MOVE
UP FROM TENNESSEE AND SLIDE INTO THE BORDER AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH NO CONVECTION IS FORECAST FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA
TODAY...A VERY ISOLATED CELL OR TWO MAY POP UP. THE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE EVEN WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WILL MANY LOCATIONS FLIRTING
WITH 90 TODAY. TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE COOLED AS SOME OF THE COOLER
AIR TO THE NORTH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED
REGARDING THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN...TIMING OF WEATHER SYSTEM
PASSAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...AND THE
EVOLUTION...TIMING...AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WITH SAID
WEATHER SYSTEMS. THAT ALL BEING SAID...THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. UNSTABLE AIR AND MEAGER
MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE PATTERN WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH AND THE MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE GULF SLOWLY INCREASES. THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK COULD FEATURE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IT APPEARS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY
MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIME FRAME WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORED
TIME FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH A 40 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL DOMINATE THE WX THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK FRONT BRUSHES
BY...BUT CHANCES AT ANY LOCATION WILL BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS...EVEN AS A VCTS. AGAIN EXPECT ANY FOG TO BE CONFINED TO THE
DEEPER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT LEAVING THE TAFS CLEAN. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
146 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
16/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCT SHRA AND ISO TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTN MAINLY NORTH
OF I-10. LEFT VCSH OR VCTS IN TAFS FOR THE AFTN BUT BASED ON
RECENT RADAR TRENDS...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE TEMPO GROUPS FM SRN TAF
SITES AND INSERT ONE AT KAEX. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL WITH SLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTN TAPERING DOWN TO
AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT. SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO RETURN
AFTER DAYBREAK TUES. 24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014/
DISCUSSION...
MORNING VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAK CU FIELD DEVELOPED NORTH OF A
BOUNDARY AT THE COASTLINE. ALONG THAT BOUNDARY SOME POPCORN
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF I-10. USED THE HRRR TO
INCREASE THE POPS JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE THE AREA WITH A RUC
BACKGROUND. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO HEAT UP TO THE HIGH 80S LOW 90S.
REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND SHOULD BE GOOD TO GO. PFM IS
SENT AND NO NEW ZFP NEEDED.
RDEAL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014/
AVIATION...
A MIDTROPOSPHERE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
ALABAMA THROUGH THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE RIVER. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE FILLING THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM LAKE CHARLES THROUGH BATON ROUGE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
JT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014/
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SOME STRATOCU OVER
CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND OFF THE
COAST OF LOWER ACADIANA. CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. RADAR CURRENTLY
ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP.
LIMITED CHANGES TO FORECAST. PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE
DICTATED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MEANDERING ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS AND THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS...850 MB AND
BELOW...LIMITING OUR RAIN CHANCES. MAINTAINING LOW END POPS FOR
MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...AND THIS PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT...OR POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
THE SEASONAL NORM.
MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WEST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS AND GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE REGION
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIMITED. 23
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 90 74 90 73 / 30 20 20 10
KBPT 90 76 91 76 / 30 20 20 10
KAEX 91 72 91 73 / 30 20 20 10
KLFT 90 75 90 74 / 30 20 20 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1103 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
.DISCUSSION...
MORNING VIS SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAK CU FIELD DEVELOPED NORTH OF A
BOUNDARY AT THE COASTLINE. ALONG THAT BOUNDARY SOME POPCORN
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF I-10. USED THE HRRR TO
INCREASE THE POPS JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE THE AREA WITH A RUC
BACKGROUND. TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO HEAT UP TO THE HIGH 80S LOW 90S.
REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND SHOULD BE GOOD TO GO. PFM IS
SENT AND NO NEW ZFP NEEDED.
RDEAL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014/
AVIATION...
A MIDTROPOSPHERE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
ALABAMA THROUGH THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE RIVER. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
LITTLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE FILLING THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM LAKE CHARLES THROUGH BATON ROUGE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
JT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014/
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SOME STRATOCU OVER
CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND OFF THE
COAST OF LOWER ACADIANA. CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. RADAR CURRENTLY
ABSENT OF ANY PRECIP.
LIMITED CHANGES TO FORECAST. PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE
DICTATED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MEANDERING ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS AND THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOWER LEVELS...850 MB AND
BELOW...LIMITING OUR RAIN CHANCES. MAINTAINING LOW END POPS FOR
MAINLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION...AND THIS PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT...OR POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
THE SEASONAL NORM.
MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WEST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS AND GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE REGION
.RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIMITED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 89 75 91 75 91 / 30 10 20 10 20
KBPT 90 76 91 76 91 / 20 10 20 10 20
KAEX 91 72 91 73 91 / 30 10 20 10 20
KLFT 90 75 90 74 90 / 20 10 20 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
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&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
359 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NE THROUGH NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH TRIGGERED CONVECTION ACROSS
ERN NE EARLIER THIS MORNING AND NOW HAS CONVECTION FOCUSED AT
PRESENT OVER ERN SD AND SW MN AT NOSE OF ASSOC 40-45 KT LOW-LVL
JET...BEST MLCAPE GRADIENT OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES NEAR 8.5C/KM. HIGHER LAPSE RATES TO 7C/KM FARTHER NORTH ALSO
SUPPORTING CLUSTER OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER NRN MN INTO FAR NRN WI.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY SNEAK INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHRA...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT
THIS CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DIE OFF AS IT MOVES AWAY
FROM THE BETTER INSTABILITY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
FCST FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH CONVECTION WHICH HAS FORMED OVER SRN MN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WHERE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED INTO TUESDAY. AS FAR AS
CONVECTION TONIGHT...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 12Z
REGIONAL GEM AND GFS AND AWAY FROM THE 12Z NAM WHICH BRINGS
STRONGEST CONVECTION TOO FAR NORTH INTO UPPER MI GIVEN MORE
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF WARM FRONT. FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE 12Z
REGIONAL GEM AND GFS...WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH IDEA OF PREV FCST
WITH MINOR TWEAKS KEEPING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS GENERALLY OVER
THE SCNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHERE
THIS PORTION OF CWA WILL BE ON NRN FRINGE OF MCS ACTIVITY MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WITH HIGHEST MLCAPES TO NEAR 3000 J/KG AND
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES 8-9C/KM FCST TO STAY WELL SOUTH CLOSER TO
WARM FRONT WOULD EXPECT ANY SVR STORMS TO STAY SOUTH OF UPPER MI
TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF WARM FRONT AS DEPICTED ON
THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK WHERE THE SLIGHT RISK LINE MAKES IT JUST
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF GRB AND WAUSAW. BEST CHC OF TSRA TONIGHT WILL BE
OVER SCNTRL UPPER MI CLOSER TO BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL WAKE LOW
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AS NRN FRINGE OF MCS MOVES ACROSS SCNTRL
AND SE FCST AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS OVER THESE AREAS IN
THE WAKE OF THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.
MODELS SHOW CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING MCS EXITING THE ERN FCST AREA
BY LATE TUE MORNING. MAIN QUESTION FOR TUE WILL BE CHCS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE WI BDR. WILL TREND TOWARD DRIER FCST
FOR TUE PER REGIONAL GEM AND NAM WHICH KEEPS DEVELOPING AFTERNOON
CONVECTION GENERALLY SOUTH OF CWA. SINCE THE 12Z GFS IS THE ONLY
MODEL TO BRING THE WARM FRONT NORTH INTO UPPER MI WILL TEND TO SHY
AWAY FROM ITS FARTHER NORTH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WITH 8H TEMPS IN
THE 14-16C...EXPECT INLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S INTERIOR
WEST/SCNTRL TO UPPER 70S EAST...WITH COOLER 60S TEMPS ALONG THE
GREAT LAKES SHORELINES FROM DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN QUEBEC...WHILE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
STRETCH FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO LAKE WINNIPEG. AT THE
SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN NORTHERN QUEBEC AND
ALSO IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH STRETCHING BETWEEN
THE TWO LOWS AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. TO THE
NORTH OF THE TROUGH...A HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER WESTERN HUDSON
BAY WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTH TO FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
HUDSON BAY HIGH AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTROL MUCH OF THE FORECAST
FOR THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MCS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST TRENDS SEEM TO BE FOR A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH TRACK THAN SHOWN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THAT SEEMS
REASONABLE. THAT MORE SOUTHERN IDEA WILL LIKELY POSITION THE TROUGH
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW DRY
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HUDSON BAY HIGH TO MOVE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. INDICATIONS ARE FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH OR DEVELOPING WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM
SIOUX FALLS THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND KICK OF ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
THIS BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...FEEL THAT MUCH OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS (LOW END CHANCES) POSITIONED ALONG THE
WISCONSIN BORDER AND SLIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF. WITH
PROPAGATION VECTORS INDICATING MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTHEAST...WOULD
THINK THAT AT MOST WE WOULD ONLY SEE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED STRATIFORM PRECIP.
WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE BOUNDARY STAYING TO THE SOUTH...THE
SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE HUDSON BAY WILL PUSH OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA AND LEAD TO DRY AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL FOLLOW THE SAME IDEA AS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP THE BEST POPS (LOW CHANCES) RIGHT ALONG THE
WISCONSIN BORDER...ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE OVERDONE (ESPECIALLY SINCE
THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES).
OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OR JUST HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP HIGHS COOLEST NEAR THE SHORELINE...WITH
INLAND VALUES IN THE 70S. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE EAST...THIS DRIER
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THE DRY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST 30
DAYS (GENERALLY UNDER 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL).
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE ROCKIES TO START THE PERIOD WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND THEN SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST WHILE MERGING WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN QUEBEC THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST...AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE CHANCE
POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TRACK. MODEL MUCAPE AND SHOWALTER VALUES
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...SO WOULD EXPECT THUNDER
CHANCES TO BE LIMITED AND WILL MATCH WITH THE POPS FOR NOW. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THIS UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL DEPART
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY/MONDAY...SO WILL FOLLOW A
GENERAL CONSENSUS OF CHANCE/SLIGHT POPS SUNDAY DIMINISHING BY
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
UNDER A DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. LATE TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE A COMPLEX
OF SHRA/TSTMS THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND UPPER
MI WILL BE ON THE NRN END OF THE COMPLEX. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FALL
TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT KIWD AS WINDS MAY SWING
AROUND TO AN UPSLOPE NW DIRECTION AROUND SUNRISE. WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STEADIER PCPN TO AFFECT KSAW INCLUDED MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
THERE BTWN 10-15Z. EXPECT BETTER CHCS TO TSRA TO STAY SOUTH OF SAW SO
REMOVED VCTS. WITH DIURNAL MIXING LOOK IMPROVEMENT AT ALL SITES BY
LATE TUE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
WEAK PRES GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT THRU
TUE. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSTMS
PASSING THRU WI AND AT LEAST PARTS OF UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT/TUE
MORNING...THERE MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS FOR A TIME LATE
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. FROM LATE TUE THRU FRI...LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
BECOME SITUATED BTWN A HUDSON BAY HIGH AND A LOW PRES TROF SLOWLY
ADVANCING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS
LATER TUE THRU FRI. WHILE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER
20KT...THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
WRN PART OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MN N SHORE DUE TO
COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. OTHERWISE...WINDS OVERALL COULD BE
STRONGER DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRES AND LOW PRES.
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TONIGHT AND LINGERING HIGHER DEWPOINTS
OVER THE AREA INTO WED...LOOK FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
327 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE NEGATIVE TILT
SHORTWAVE THAT LIFTED THRU THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY YESTERDAY
HAS BECOME AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING MID LEVEL LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO
EARLY THIS MORNING. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MANAGED
TO SPARK A FEW -SHRA OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/FAR WRN UPPER MI FROM
AROUND KIWD TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...AS EXPECTED SKIES HAVE LARGELY CLEARED ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AS MUCH DRIER AIR...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS...HAS ADVECTED
INTO THE AREA. AT THE VERY LOW-LEVELS...YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL AND
DIMINISHING WINDS UNDERNEATH THE MID LEVEL DRYING HAVE RESULTED IN
FOG FORMATION OVER A GOOD PORTION OF CNTRL UPPER MI.
WITH DECENT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC (KMQT RADAR SHOWS 25KT SW WINDS
AT 500FT AGL)...FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISPERSE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HRS
AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER...NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...PATCHY FOG MAY PLAGUE
LAKESIDE LOCATIONS INTO THE AFTN HRS. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A
MAINLY SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER DAY IS SHAPING UP. FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A DEEP MIXING DAY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER BUILDING TO TOWARD
750MB. THIS YIELDS MAX TEMPS INTO 80-85 RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH PREVAILING S/SW
WINDS. A NUMBER OF HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THIS IS INCREASINGLY INDICATED BY HOURLY
RUC13 MODEL RUNS. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO
STILL ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO GET IN ON THE
WARMTH TODAY AS WELL. DEEP MIXING WILL AID IN LOWERING DWPTS THIS
AFTN. INCORPORATED MIXED LAYER DWPTS INTO THE FCST WHICH RESULTS IN
DWPTS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR...AND THIS PUTS
MIN RH DOWN AROUND 30PCT. THE DEEP MIXING SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY
WINDS INTO THE 20-30MPH RANGE FOR A TIME WHERE RH IS LOWEST.
FORTUNATELY...YESTERDAYS RAINFALL AND NEAR SATURATED SFC LAYER/DEW
FORMATION OVERNIGHT WILL MITIGATE SOME OF THE FIRE WX CONCERNS. ONE
LAST ISSUE FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION. GFS
SHOWS MLCAPE UPWARDS OF AROUND 500J/KG OVER ROUGHLY THE W HALF TODAY
WHILE THE NAM IS BIT HIGHER TO 500-900J/KG. THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION (A SIMPLE LOOK AT K INDEX SHOWS
VALUES UP TO AROUND 30 ON THE GFS AND A LITTLE HIGHER WITH THE NAM).
HOWEVER...GIVEN 40-60M HEIGHT RISES AT 500MB TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING APPROACHING...WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY PCPN MENTION.
AS OPPOSED TO PREVIOUS DAYS MODEL RUNS...MOST MODELS NOW SHOW A DRY
DAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE DRY FCST. THAT
SAID...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AS THAT COULD TRIGGER ISOLD LATE AFTN CONVECTION.
TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS.
SIGNIFICANT BUILD UP OF INSTABILITY TODAY COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
JET DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONG CONVECTION SOMEWHERE OVER NE/SD/IA/SRN MN LATER THIS AFTN.
THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GROW INTO AN MCS TONIGHT THAT WILL RIDE
ENE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ENE TRACKING SHORTWAVE. WHILE SVR THREAT
SHOULD PASS S OF THE FCST AREA CLOSER TO MAX INSTABILITY AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR STRONGER STORMS
TO SLIP INTO SRN UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW...PREFER THE LOOK OF
THE 00Z REGIONAL GEM WITH RESPECT TO EXPECTED MCS
DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT. THIS MODEL BRINGS SHRA/TSRA INTO MAINLY
CNTRL/ERN UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGH RES NAM WINDOW IS SIMILAR
TO THE GEM THOUGH A BIT FARTHER N THAN THE GEM. BEING ON THE NRN END
OF THE MCS...HVY RAINFALL MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...BUT
THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION/STRUCTURE OF THE MCS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN QUEBEC...WHILE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
STRETCH FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO LAKE WINNIPEG. AT THE
SURFACE...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN NORTHERN QUEBEC AND
ALSO IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH STRETCHING BETWEEN
THE TWO LOWS AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. TO THE
NORTH OF THE TROUGH...A HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER WESTERN HUDSON
BAY WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTH TO FAR NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
HUDSON BAY HIGH AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTROL MUCH OF THE FORECAST
FOR THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MCS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST TRENDS SEEM TO BE FOR A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH TRACK THAN SHOWN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THAT SEEMS
REASONABLE. THAT MORE SOUTHERN IDEA WILL LIKELY POSITION THE TROUGH
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW DRY
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HUDSON BAY HIGH TO MOVE OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. INDICATIONS ARE FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH OR DEVELOPING WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM
SIOUX FALLS THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND KICK OF ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
THIS BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...FEEL THAT MUCH OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS (LOW END CHANCES) POSITIONED ALONG THE
WISCONSIN BORDER AND SLIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF. WITH
PROPAGATION VECTORS INDICATING MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTHEAST...WOULD
THINK THAT AT MOST WE WOULD ONLY SEE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED STRATIFORM PRECIP.
WITH THE EXPECTATION OF THE BOUNDARY STAYING TO THE SOUTH...THE
SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE HUDSON BAY WILL PUSH OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA AND LEAD TO DRY AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL FOLLOW THE SAME IDEA AS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND KEEP THE BEST POPS (LOW CHANCES) RIGHT ALONG THE
WISCONSIN BORDER...ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE OVERDONE (ESPECIALLY SINCE
THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES).
OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OR JUST HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP HIGHS COOLEST NEAR THE SHORELINE...WITH
INLAND VALUES IN THE 70S. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE EAST...THIS DRIER
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THE DRY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST 30
DAYS (GENERALLY UNDER 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL).
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE ROCKIES TO START THE PERIOD WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND THEN SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST WHILE MERGING WITH THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN QUEBEC THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST...AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE CHANCE
POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TRACK. MODEL MUCAPE AND SHOWALTER VALUES
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA...SO WOULD EXPECT THUNDER
CHANCES TO BE LIMITED AND WILL MATCH WITH THE POPS FOR NOW. MODELS
DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY THIS UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL DEPART
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY/MONDAY...SO WILL FOLLOW A
GENERAL CONSENSUS OF CHANCE/SLIGHT POPS SUNDAY DIMINISHING BY
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
UNDER A DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. LATE TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE A COMPLEX
OF SHRA/TSTMS THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND UPPER
MI WILL BE ON THE NRN END OF THE COMPLEX. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FALL
TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT KIWD AS WINDS MAY SWING
AROUND TO AN UPSLOPE NW DIRECTION AROUND SUNRISE. WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STEADIER PCPN TO AFFECT KSAW INCLUDED MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
THERE BTWN 10-15Z. EXPECT BETTER CHCS TO TSRA TO STAY SOUTH OF SAW SO
REMOVED VCTS. WITH DIURNAL MIXING LOOK IMPROVEMENT AT ALL SITES BY
LATE TUE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS. THESE LIGHTER WINDS...MOSTLY UNDER 20KT...WILL
CONTINUE THRU TUE. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A CLUSTER OF
SHRA/TSTMS PASSING THRU WI AND AT LEAST PARTS OF UPPER MI LATE
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...THERE MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS FOR A TIME
LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. FROM LATE TUE THRU FRI...LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL BECOME SITUATED BTWN A HUDSON BAY HIGH AND A LOW PRES TROF
SLOWLY ADVANCING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY
WINDS LATER TUE THRU FRI. WHILE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER
20KT...THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
WRN PART OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MN N SHORE DUE TO
COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. OTHERWISE...WINDS OVERALL COULD BE
STRONGER DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRES AND LOW PRES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
149 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE NEGATIVE TILT
SHORTWAVE THAT LIFTED THRU THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY YESTERDAY
HAS BECOME AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING MID LEVEL LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO
EARLY THIS MORNING. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MANAGED
TO SPARK A FEW -SHRA OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/FAR WRN UPPER MI FROM
AROUND KIWD TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...AS EXPECTED SKIES HAVE LARGELY CLEARED ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AS MUCH DRIER AIR...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS...HAS ADVECTED
INTO THE AREA. AT THE VERY LOW-LEVELS...YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL AND
DIMINISHING WINDS UNDERNEATH THE MID LEVEL DRYING HAVE RESULTED IN
FOG FORMATION OVER A GOOD PORTION OF CNTRL UPPER MI.
WITH DECENT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC (KMQT RADAR SHOWS 25KT SW WINDS
AT 500FT AGL)...FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISPERSE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HRS
AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER...NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...PATCHY FOG MAY PLAGUE
LAKESIDE LOCATIONS INTO THE AFTN HRS. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE A
MAINLY SUNNY AND MUCH WARMER DAY IS SHAPING UP. FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A DEEP MIXING DAY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER BUILDING TO TOWARD
750MB. THIS YIELDS MAX TEMPS INTO 80-85 RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WITH PREVAILING S/SW
WINDS. A NUMBER OF HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THIS IS INCREASINGLY INDICATED BY HOURLY
RUC13 MODEL RUNS. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO
STILL ALLOW MOST LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO GET IN ON THE
WARMTH TODAY AS WELL. DEEP MIXING WILL AID IN LOWERING DWPTS THIS
AFTN. INCORPORATED MIXED LAYER DWPTS INTO THE FCST WHICH RESULTS IN
DWPTS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S IN THE INTERIOR...AND THIS PUTS
MIN RH DOWN AROUND 30PCT. THE DEEP MIXING SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY
WINDS INTO THE 20-30MPH RANGE FOR A TIME WHERE RH IS LOWEST.
FORTUNATELY...YESTERDAYS RAINFALL AND NEAR SATURATED SFC LAYER/DEW
FORMATION OVERNIGHT WILL MITIGATE SOME OF THE FIRE WX CONCERNS. ONE
LAST ISSUE FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD CONVECTION. GFS
SHOWS MLCAPE UPWARDS OF AROUND 500J/KG OVER ROUGHLY THE W HALF TODAY
WHILE THE NAM IS BIT HIGHER TO 500-900J/KG. THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR POSSIBLE CONVECTION (A SIMPLE LOOK AT K INDEX SHOWS
VALUES UP TO AROUND 30 ON THE GFS AND A LITTLE HIGHER WITH THE NAM).
HOWEVER...GIVEN 40-60M HEIGHT RISES AT 500MB TODAY WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING APPROACHING...WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY PCPN MENTION.
AS OPPOSED TO PREVIOUS DAYS MODEL RUNS...MOST MODELS NOW SHOW A DRY
DAY ACROSS THE FCST AREA...FURTHER SUPPORTING THE DRY FCST. THAT
SAID...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT AS THAT COULD TRIGGER ISOLD LATE AFTN CONVECTION.
TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE FROM THE PLAINS.
SIGNIFICANT BUILD UP OF INSTABILITY TODAY COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL
JET DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONG CONVECTION SOMEWHERE OVER NE/SD/IA/SRN MN LATER THIS AFTN.
THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GROW INTO AN MCS TONIGHT THAT WILL RIDE
ENE IN CONJUNCTION WITH ENE TRACKING SHORTWAVE. WHILE SVR THREAT
SHOULD PASS S OF THE FCST AREA CLOSER TO MAX INSTABILITY AND
INSTABILITY GRADIENT...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR STRONGER STORMS
TO SLIP INTO SRN UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW...PREFER THE LOOK OF
THE 00Z REGIONAL GEM WITH RESPECT TO EXPECTED MCS
DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT. THIS MODEL BRINGS SHRA/TSRA INTO MAINLY
CNTRL/ERN UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. THE HIGH RES NAM WINDOW IS SIMILAR
TO THE GEM THOUGH A BIT FARTHER N THAN THE GEM. BEING ON THE NRN END
OF THE MCS...HVY RAINFALL MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...BUT
THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION/STRUCTURE OF THE MCS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
SMALL DISTURBANCES WILL PLAGUE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL
REMAIN DIFFICULT TO TIME. THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE
NEAR THE WI BORDER.
WINDS TUESDAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10KTS...BUT THE DIRECTION IS STILL
IN QUESTION. THIS IN BECAUSE OF THE VARIED PLACEMENT OF A WEAK SFC
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE 16/00Z NAM PLACES THIS FEATURE
OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AT 12Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE CANADIAN IS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.P....AND THE 15/12Z ECMWF IS APPROX 160MI S OF
THE NAM. WILL GO WITH A GENERAL BLEND...AND LIKE AS STATED ABOVE
WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10KTS...SO DO NOT EXPECT TOO MANY PROBLEMS
WITH THIS SOLUTION BEFORE THE RIDGE PUSHES IN FROM THE NW IN THE
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT.
OVERALL...LOOK FOR A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
THE 500MB RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST W OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING...AS THE SFC RIDGE STRENGTHENS IT/S HOLD OVER UPPER
MI. EXPECT E-NE WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LINGERING FOG ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE FROM N TO S
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WX WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF AND ON
MAINLY NEAR THE WI BORDER...CLOSER TO THE BETTER MOISTURE.
WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...IN RESPONSE TO
THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE E
HALF OF ONTARIO AND THE NEARING LOW ACROSS NE AND SD. STILL...THE E
FLOW SHOULD STILL KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH MORE THAN THE MID 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AS 850MB TEMPS LINGER BETWEEN 10-13C. THE
SFC LOW OVER S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT WITH A SLIGHT E PUSH AS THE
500MB WAVE OVER THE DAKOTAS AT 00Z FRIDAY KICKS SLIGHTLY NNE TOWARD
MN.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP /AT LEAST W AND CENTRAL/
WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT E AREAS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FCST
FRIDAY...IF RAIN/CLOUDS HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE FCST SOLUTIONS IS SIGNIFICANT FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD...SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY LARGE CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
UNDER A DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. LATE TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE A COMPLEX
OF SHRA/TSTMS THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND UPPER
MI WILL BE ON THE NRN END OF THE COMPLEX. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FALL
TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT KIWD AS WINDS MAY SWING
AROUND TO AN UPSLOPE NW DIRECTION AROUND SUNRISE. WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STEADIER PCPN TO AFFECT KSAW INCLUDED MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
THERE BTWN 10-15Z. EXPECT BETTER CHCS TO TSRA TO STAY SOUTH OF SAW SO
REMOVED VCTS. WITH DIURNAL MIXING LOOK IMPROVEMENT AT ALL SITES BY
LATE TUE MORNING. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 537 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS. THESE LIGHTER WINDS...MOSTLY UNDER 20KT...WILL
CONTINUE THRU TUE. HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A CLUSTER OF
SHRA/TSTMS PASSING THRU WI AND AT LEAST PARTS OF UPPER MI LATE
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING...THERE MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS FOR A TIME
LATE TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. FROM LATE TUE THRU FRI...LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL BECOME SITUATED BTWN A HUDSON BAY HIGH AND A LOW PRES TROF
SLOWLY ADVANCING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY
WINDS LATER TUE THRU FRI. WHILE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER
20KT...THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
WRN PART OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MN N SHORE DUE TO
COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. OTHERWISE...WINDS OVERALL COULD BE
STRONGER DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRES AND LOW PRES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
414 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
ELEMENTS NECESSARY FOR SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT COMING TOGETHER LATE
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. AN OPEN GULF THE LAST 24HR HAS ALLOWED STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. MESO ANALYSIS INDICATING
SFC DEW PTS IN THE LOW 70S HAVE PUSHED IN THE CWA ALONG WITH PWS
VALUES APPROACHING 1.75". WITH STRONG BNDRY LYR THETA-E ADV
UNDERWAY...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
SBCAPES PUSHING 5500J/KG...LI -14. ALONG WITH FAVORABLE EFF-SRH IN
PLACE...TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS QUITE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN CWA WHERE BEST 0-1KM SRH...LOW
LFC/LCL WILL BE FOCUSED. TWD LATE EVENING HRRR IS SHOWING STORMS
EVOLVING INTO AN MCS AS IT MOVES INTO NW IA.
TUES AND WED HEFTY MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE TO PHASE WITH
MUCH WARMER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN ALLOWING FOR QUITE MUGGY
CONDITIONS. NAM AND GFS STILL PROG HEAT INDICES APPROACHING/AROUND
100 DEG BOTH DAYS.
WED NIGHT...NEXT ROUND OF TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO FORM ON NOSE
OF LLVL JET/BNDRY LYR THETA-E CONVG. HVY RA LOOKS PROBABLE GIVEN
FAVORABLE PCPN EFFICIENCY/KI VALUES 40/PWS CLOSE TO 2". ACTIVITY
THEN PROGGED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
559 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
FOLLOWING THE 20-21 UTC RAP/HRRR RUNS...SUPPORTED BY STABLE 18 UTC
NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AND THE LACK OF A CUMULUS FIELD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...REMOVED POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA
HIGHWAY 3. ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ISOLATED CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED.
HOWEVER...RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO BE LIMITING
INTENSITY. ML CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40
KTS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION...HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE ISOLATED. FINALLY...GIVEN UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW...DID ADD
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE...GO FIGURE.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH INTO WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA ALONG AN OLD
BOUNDARY. LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DEVELOPING BOUNDARY INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TRACKING EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BUMPED UP POPS TO
CHANCE CATEGORY IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP CONTINUE TO DIMINISH CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER EASTER
MONTANA...BUT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY...THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. CONSIDERED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT WITH THE INCREASED POTENTIAL HOLDING OFF
UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT MORE LIKE TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK. PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD ADDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE
FAR WEST AND WILL CONTINUE THIS AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT REGARDING MOVING THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD AND MOVING A RIDGE
INTO THE DAKOTAS BY THE WEEKEND.
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THE NEAR TERM PLACING THE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THURSDAY...AND
MOVING IT EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: ON TUESDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM A LOW OVER KANSAS NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
DURING THIS TIME THE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN
PLACE. A LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL
FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...AND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF CAPE AND SHEAR FOR SUSTAINING
THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. BY WEDNESDAY THE THREAT
IS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 85.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE NEAR
THE ND/MT/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE...WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: BY THE END OF THE WEEK THERE
WILL HAVE BEEN A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
- WITH THE ADDITIONAL THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND
BUILD A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER MONTANA/DAKOTAS. A FEW WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE WEAK RIDGE WILL RESULT IN ONLY
SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. KDIK IS THE
MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO BE IMPACTED. WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KDIK
AND POSSIBLY KISN AND KBIS. KMOT AND KJMS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE
FRINGE OF THIS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
250 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE...GO FIGURE.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH INTO WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO MINNESOTA ALONG AN OLD
BOUNDARY. LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A DEVELOPING BOUNDARY INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TRACKING EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BUMPED UP POPS TO
CHANCE CATEGORY IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MENTION THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP CONTINUE TO DIMINISH CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING.
ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER EASTER
MONTANA...BUT AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY...THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. CONSIDERED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT WITH THE INCREASED POTENTIAL HOLDING OFF
UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT MORE LIKE TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER
LOOK. PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD ADDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE
FAR WEST AND WILL CONTINUE THIS AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORK WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT REGARDING MOVING THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD AND MOVING A RIDGE
INTO THE DAKOTAS BY THE WEEKEND.
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THE NEAR TERM PLACING THE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN US ROCKIES STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THURSDAY...AND
MOVING IT EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: ON TUESDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM A LOW OVER KANSAS NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
DURING THIS TIME THE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN
PLACE. A LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL
FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...AND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW WILL BRING PLENTY OF CAPE AND SHEAR FOR SUSTAINING
THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. BY WEDNESDAY THE THREAT
IS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 85.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE NEAR
THE ND/MT/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE...WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: BY THE END OF THE WEEK THERE
WILL HAVE BEEN A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
- WITH THE ADDITIONAL THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND
BUILD A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER MONTANA/DAKOTAS. A FEW WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE WEAK RIDGE WILL RESULT IN ONLY
SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MVFR-IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BY
LATE EVENING AND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WITH A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW INTO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA...THUS HAVE BROUGHT IN AN AREA OF MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES...BUT DELAYED THIS UNTIL BASICALLY
AFTER 12 UTC TUESDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
103 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MONDAY REGION WITH CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. A FEW
STORMS CROSSED THE BORDER EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH ANOTHER AREA
OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY DIMINISHING OVER SOUTHERN EMMONS/MCINTOSH
COUNTIES AS STORMS RUN INTO MORE STABLE AIR.
WE CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE SKIES
HAVE CLEARED. LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP AND ESPECIALLY HRRR HAVE
INDICATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL. WITH DECENT BULK
SHEAR AND INCREASING INSTABILITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
BUMPED UP THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND WINDS. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO DUE TO THE
INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1026 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
MAIN CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE...TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK
NORTH AND EAST ALONG A WARM FRONT IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE WARM FRONT
AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH
THROUGH THE DAY AND ENTER SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THIS UPDATE...BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES STARTED OUT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH THE CLOUD COVER...STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
THEREFORE...INCREASED MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
QUICK UPDATED FOR THE ADDITION OF ISOLATED MORNING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD AREAS OF FOG TO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES
PER THE TIOGA AND STANLEY OBS. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS MY
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CURRENTLY...S/WV MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL AREA
RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AT THE MOMENT. S/WV TROUGH OVER
NORTHERN WYOMING WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA/EASTERN WYOMING. OFF TO OUR NORTH...MID
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
IT APPEARS THE SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW
TO OUR NORTH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH A
WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT HINDERING THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE
LOW CLOUDS.
WILL SEE INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL S/WV OVER NORTHERN WYOMING
CONTINUES NORTHEAST. THIS FEATURE...COUPLED WITH A SECOND EMBEDDED
WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WILL RESULT
IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING 12Z-18Z WEST AND
ACROSS THE SOUTH. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCREASE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AIDING IN THE EXPANSION OF COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WHERE MODELS PORTRAY THE HIGHER INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1K MUCAPE.
0-6KM WIND SHEAR OF 40-50KTS IN THIS REGION AS WELL...WILL SUPPORT
UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT DISPLACEMENT PROMOTING STORM LONGEVITY FOR A
CHANCE AT A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS
INDICATED BY THE SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK. HOWEVER...A QUASI-STATIONARY
WARM FRONT PROGGED TO BE DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
INTO NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER OF MY
SOUTHEAST (SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY OF ND). WILL WANT TO KEEP A
CLOSER WATCH ON SOME OF THE MORE ROBUST STORMS HERE FOR ENHANCED
MESOS AND POSSIBLE WEAK TORNADOES GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS
LEAD S/WV IMPULSES...ORIGINATING FROM A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW
POSITIONED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS
WYOMING AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED. THE ECMWF PROGS A DRYING TREND DEVELOPING BY LATE FRIDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GEM/GFS HAVE
DIFFERENT IDEAS.
ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO ENTER WESTERN MONTANA.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD GENERATE LIKELY POPS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
GIVEN THE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.
SPC ALSO PAINTED AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH
MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6 BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES
AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE ABSENCE OF A SURFACE
BOUNDARY. FURTHERMORE...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE THREATS
IN THE HWO.
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE INTERESTING AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO
SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE 00Z ECMWF/GEM/GFS PROG THE UPPER LOW`S
SURFACE FRONT TO ENTER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO COINCIDE WITH
MUCAPE BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS. THERE`S QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ON DAY 3...BUT IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO KEEP WITH THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WITH
REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW...SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE
A POSSIBILITY OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH SPC`S DAY 3 OUTLOOK AND WILL THEREFORE
HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO AS WELL.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ROTATING THE UPPER LOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT WITH THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND BEYOND. THE ECMWF IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW AND BUILDS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
STATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GEM/GFS KEEP
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH RIDGING
FINALLY BUILDING IN SUNDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCIES...TOOK THE ALLBLEND APPROACH AND INDICATED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS FORECAST THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. A VCSH/VCTS
OVER THE AERODROMES LATE THIS AFTERNOONA AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME
KJMS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CANDIDATE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TO WEST
CENTRAL AND TRACKING EAST. LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH AROUND TO AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. WILL HOLD
OFF ON THIS FOR NOW UNTIL AROUND 12 UTC.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1234 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS THE CELLS HAVE MOVED NORTH INTO
MORE STABLE AIR. HOWEVER...RAIN HAS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
EXPECTED SO BUMPED UP POPS AND LOWERED TEMPS A BIT IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP
WILL GET THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY UP TO THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE MORNING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE DAKOTAS PARTICULARLY WELL...BUT THINK THE
TREND OF SCATTERED ACTIVITY SLOWLY RAMPING UP OVER THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE. MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS FOR TODAY...BUT
KEPT THE OVERALL INCREASING FROM 20S TO 50S GOING. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP TEMPS ON TRACK TO RISE INTO THE 70S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
UPDATED THE POPS ACROSS SE ND AS 850MB MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS
BEGUN IN EARNEST...DEVELOPING SOME ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS NE SD.
OTHERWISE STILL EXPECTING MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IN THE 17Z TO 20Z
TIME FRAME ACROSS SE ND AND MOVING INTO WCNTRL MN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING LIGHTER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH...UP TO HWY 2...FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGER CELLS ARE STILL EXPECTED NEAR THE ND SD BORDER WHERE
STRONGER INSTABILITY AND HIGHER SHEAR WILL RESIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH THE THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA TODAY
AND TUESDAY. WITH GOOD SOLAR TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMPS
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SOUTH. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NORTH
ON 20 TO 30KT 850MB JET AS PWATS GO FROM AROUND 0.75" AT 12Z TO
1.5" BY 21Z. THIS INCREASE OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDING ALONG IN THE 500MB SW FLOW SHOULD INITIATE CONVECTION IN C
SD EARLY THIS AFTN...IDEA REINFORCED BY CURRENT RAP AND HRRR RUNS.
ML CAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG ALONG THE SD ND BORDER AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 45 KTS SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE. HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES REMAINS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN...AS THE MOISTURE SOURCE MAYBE CUT OFF FROM THE EXPECTED
CONVECTION ACROSS E SD AND S MN.
THE CHC FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA ON TUESDAY AS INSTABILITY/MOISTURE PERSIST UNDER THE
SW FLOW AND THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN THEIR SLIGHT RISK ON THE DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...500MB RIDGING PUSHES BRIEFLY INTO
THE AREA MAKING WEDNESDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS 850 TEMPS
APPROACH 20C. BY WEDNESDAY PM THE 500MB UPPER LOW WORKS CLOSER TO
THE FA WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING AND INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BRING A BAND OF PCPN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN BULK SHEAR VALUES
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO BE
SEVERE...AREA IN THE SLIGHT RISK ON SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION TO START THE PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FEATURE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS/GEM/DGEX
PROPAGATE THIS FEATURE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
PRECIP ON THURSDAY...BUT LESS CERTAINTY FRIDAY-SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW PROPAGATES
EASTWARD. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...MAIN CHALLENGE BEING
VCTS...PLACED AT VALLEY AIR FIELDS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE LIGHT
WINDS MOSTLY S-SW THIS AFTERNOON TURNING TO E-NE TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE TRANSITS SOUTH OF THE REGION.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...WJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PENDLETON OR
215 PM PDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING PRODUCING SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLD
TSRA. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ANY TSRA SHOULD DISSIPATE AND
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD LESSEN. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVES INTO IDAHO TOMORROW BUT RAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR AREA SO THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWA MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TWO STATE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE BY THURSDAY
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WA/OR AND OUR AREA SHOULD
EXPERIENCE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE REGION WILL BECOME
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING S-SW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE
PACIFIC NW. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD TO
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER ELEVATION HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S
BY SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS 55-60F. AT THE SAME TIME THERE WILL BE
A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE LOW LEVELS SUCH THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY EXTEND NORTHWARD ALONG
THE WASHINGTON CASCADE CREST. FOR NOW WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
AND KEPT THE LOWER BASINS DRY BECAUSE THE ECMWF MODEL WAS LESS
EMPHATIC ABOUT THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW...KEEPING THE FLOW MORE
WESTERLY AND A LITTLE DRIER/MORE STABLE. 78
&&
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY....SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. PLAN TO HANDLE THESE WITH VCSH INTO THE EARLY NIGHTTIME
HOURS. STRONGER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE OCNL LTG STRIKES. WEST WINDS
OF 10-25KT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND THEN SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AFTER 15-18Z TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL BE
MOSTLY BKN AT 4-6 THOUSAND FEET AND BKN-OVC AT 8-10 THOUSAND FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 45 62 49 76 / 20 20 10 10
ALW 50 64 53 77 / 20 20 20 10
PSC 52 70 53 82 / 20 20 10 10
YKM 46 71 50 78 / 20 20 10 10
HRI 49 67 50 80 / 20 20 10 10
ELN 47 70 51 75 / 30 20 10 10
RDM 34 61 35 73 / 20 20 0 10
LGD 43 55 45 70 / 30 30 20 20
GCD 39 56 41 73 / 20 20 20 10
DLS 51 70 53 78 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
$$
97/78/78
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
410 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN OF HUMIDITY AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S PRETTY MUCH MARK THE EDGE OF THE
ADVANCING CU FIELD AS MOISTURE SURGES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
RADAR IS BECOMING MORE ACTIVE WITH THE NEAREST THUNDER SHOWER
NEAR JOHNSTOWN...BUT BECOMING MUCH MORE ACTIVE JUST OFF TO OUR
WEST.
THE RAP ALREADY INDICATES CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000J OVER CENTRAL
PA. LIMITING THE CONVECTION IS THE LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IT SUPPORTS THE FORECAST OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH LITTLE CERTAINTY AS TO THE AREAS THAT
WILL BE MOST FAVORED TO RECEIVE RAIN. THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING
INCREASING ACTIVITY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON NOW FOR SEVERAL
RUNS...BUT THE PLACEMENT OF THE PROGGED RADAR FEATURES HAS BEEN
VERY INCONSISTENT. SO I WILL STICK WITH MY FORECAST FOR SCATTERED
ACTIVITY.
HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE A CERTAINTY EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME READINGS
NUDGING 90 LIKELY OVER MY SERN ZONES. IF IT DOES TOP 90...IT WILL
BE THE FIRST DAY TO DO SO THIS YEAR...WHICH FOR MOST LOCATIONS IS
ABOUT 2 WEEKS LATER THAN NORMAL.
DUE TO THE WEAK FORCING...THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH RATHER
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...LEAVING A MUGGY BUT MAINLY
FAIR OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
ERN GR LAKES...WITH MOIST-UNSTABLE AIR BEING MADE TO SURGE INTO
THE REGION. SREF SHOWS IMPRESSIVE CAPE WHICH CONTINUES INTO THE
EVENING...ALONG WITH STRONG MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE MOVING THRU
THE ERN LAKES AND NRN PA. MODELS ALSO FORECAST IMPRESSIVE SHEAR
WITH LOW LEVEL EHI`S EXCEEDING 3 M2/S2 OVER A WIDE AREA DURING THE
MOST UNSTABLE TIME OF DAY. THE LIMITING FEATURE TUESDAY WILL BE
VERY WARM MID LEVELS AS GUIDANCE SHOWS US RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF A
BUBBLE OF VERY WARM MID LEVEL AIR...AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SLIDES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
VALUES OF EHI THIS HIGH ARE RARE IN THIS REGION...AND WE`LL HAVE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FORMING OVER OR HEADING SE FROM THE
UPSTREAM GREAT LAKES.
OTHERWISE TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER VERY WARM TO HOT AND RATHER
HUMID DAY WITH WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY...WITH 588DM
LINE NOSING NWD INTO SWRN PA...WILL KEEP A FORECAST OF WARM TO
HOT WEATHER ON TRACK THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. AN UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BY MIDWEEK WHICH SHOULD SERVE TO PUSH A FRONT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND/NEW YORK STATE LATE IN THE WEEK THEN STALL
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LEAD TO MORE THAN JUST ISOLATED/POP-UP AFTN
TSTMS ESP WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS THAT WILL
BE IN PLACE. HAVE INCLUDED POPS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION...AND
LIKELY WHERE THERE IS SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE
...EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
EXPECT VERY WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE WED-THU
TIME PERIOD. 90 DEGREE READINGS LIKELY IN SUSQ VALLEY AND MAY MAKE
A PUSH ALL THE WAY TOWARDS STATE COLLEGE ON WEDNESDAY. DEW POINTS
WILL BE IN ABOVE 60F MOST OF THE WEEK...SO EXPECT UNCOMFORTABLE
AFTERNOONS...THOUGH BELOW ANY HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG SFC HEATING AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DEVELOPING ADEQUATE INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE FIRST OF DAY ALREADY AT JST. ACTIVITY
WILL BE VERY HIT AND MISS...WITH TERMINALS REMAINING VFR EXCEPT
WHERE THE CONVECTION MOVES IN...THEN CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DROP
TO IFR OR LOWER.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE FOR SOME FOG/HAZE ISSUES
OVERNIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO DROP BACK INTO THE 2-4 MILE
RANGE AT MOST TERMINALS. THESE REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY...WITH ALL AIRPORTS GOING VFR BY MID
MORNING AND STAYING THAT WAY UNTIL ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
214 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN OF HUMIDITY AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S PRETTY MUCH MARK THE EDGE OF THE
ADVANCING CU FIELD AS MOISTURE SURGES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
RADAR IS BECOMING MORE ACTIVE WITH THE NEAREST THUNDER SHOWER
NEAR JOHNSTOWN...BUT BECOMING MUCH MORE ACTIVE JUST OFF TO OUR
WEST.
THE RAP ALREADY INDICATES CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000J OVER CENTRAL
PA. LIMITING THE CONVECTION IS THE LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IT SUPPORTS THE FORECAST OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH LITTLE CERTAINTY AS TO THE AREAS THAT
WILL BE MOST FAVORED TO RECEIVE RAIN. THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING
INCREASING ACTIVITY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON NOW FOR SEVERAL
RUNS...BUT THE PLACEMENT OF THE PROGGED RADAR FEATURES HAS BEEN
VERY INCONSISTENT. SO I WILL STICK WITH MY FORECAST FOR SCATTERED
ACTIVITY.
HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE A CERTAINTY EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME READINGS
NUDGING 90 LIKELY OVER MY SERN ZONES. IF IT DOES TOP 90...IT WILL
BE THE FIRST DAY TO DO SO THIS YEAR...WHICH FOR MOST LOCATIONS IS
ABOUT 2 WEEKS LATER THAN NORMAL.
DUE TO THE WEAK FORCING...THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH RATHER
QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...LEAVING A MUGGY BUT MAINLY
FAIR OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
ERN GR LAKES...WITH MOIST-UNSTABLE AIR BEING MADE TO SURGE INTO
THE REGION. SREF SHOWS IMPRESSIVE CAPE WHICH CONTINUES INTO THE
EVENING...ALONG WITH STRONG MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE MOVING THRU
THE ERN LAKES AND NRN PA. MODELS ALSO FORECAST IMPRESSIVE SHEAR
WITH LOW LEVEL EHI`S EXCEEDING 3 M2/S2 OVER A WIDE AREA DURING THE
MOST UNSTABLE TIME OF DAY. THE LIMITING FEATURE TUESDAY WILL BE
VERY WARM MID LEVELS AS GUIDANCE SHOWS US RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF A
BUBBLE OF VERY WARM MID LEVEL AIR...AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SLIDES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
VALUES OF EHI THIS HIGH ARE RARE IN THIS REGION...AND WE`LL HAVE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FORMING OVER OR HEADING SE FROM THE
UPSTREAM GREAT LAKES.
OTHERWISE TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER VERY WARM TO HOT AND RATHER
HUMID DAY WITH WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THS 80S TO AROUND 90.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECAST OF WARM TO HOT WEATHER ON TRACK AS SUMMER LIKE RIDGING
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PA BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN VERY WARM
850 MB TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE WED-THU TIME PERIOD. 90
DEGREE READINGS LIKELY IN SUSQ VALLEY AND MAY MAKE A PUSH ALL THE
WAY TOWARDS STATE COLLEGE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DEW POINTS
WILL BE ON THE RISE ALL WEEK AS WELL...SO EXPECT SOMEWHAT
UNCOMFORTABLE AFTERNOONS...THOUGH BELOW ANY HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME.
AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN QUEBEC AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY MIDWEEK. THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH A
FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND/NEW YORK STATE LATE IN THE
WEEK THEN STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
AT THIS POINT THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT ALTOGETHER TEMPER THE RISING
TEMPS TIL POSSIBLY LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT INSTEAD WILL SERVE AS A
BETTER SOURCE FOR THE INITIATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE THAN JUST ISOLATED
AFTN TSTMS ESP WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE...AND HAVE INCLUDED POPS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG SFC HEATING AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DEVELOPING ADEQUATE INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE FIRST OF DAY ALREADY AT JST. ACTIVITY
WILL BE VERY HIT AND MISS...WITH TERMINALS REMAINING VFR EXCEPT
WHERE THE CONVECTION MOVES IN...THEN CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DROP
TO IFR OR LOWER.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT AN
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE FOR SOME FOG/HAZE ISSUES
OVERNIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO DROP BACK INTO THE 2-4 MILE
RANGE AT MOST TERMINALS. THESE REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY...WITH ALL AIRPORTS GOING VFR BY MID
MORNING AND STAYING THAT WAY UNTIL ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT...VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
350 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ATOP THE SOUTHEAST REGION
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EDT MONDAY...INCREASED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY AND NO
INHIBITION. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
PULSE THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE REGION AS PEAK HEATING BUILDS.
NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION COULD BE A FOCUS FOR NEW
CELL GROWTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA...THEREBY SUPPORTING THE
ABOVE MENTIONED POP INCREASE. RAMPED POPS DOWN AS WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST AROUND/AFTER SUNSET ONCE HEATING IS LOST DUE TO THE PURELY
THERMODYNAMIC NATURE OF THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE...TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LEFT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS IS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 200 PM...WELL AS ADVERTISED BY THE GSO/FFC SNDGS THIS
MORNING...THERE IS NO INHIBITION...AND HENCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHWRS AND TSTMS HAVE BLOSSOMED QUICKLY ACRS THE CWFA...DESPITE LARGE
HIGH PRES SYSTEM ATOP THE REGION. THE LAPS AND RAP BOTH SHOW 2500 TO
OVER 4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. SO I HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FURTHER FROM
PREVIOUS UPDATE...WITH SOLID CHC TO LIKELY POP ACRS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...AND CHC POP OVER PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE PIEDMONT. PWATS
ARE 125-150% OF NORMAL AND STORMS ARE SLOW-MOVERS...SO ISOLD HEAVY
RAIN/FLOOD THREAT LOOKS TO EXIST IN ADDITION TO A SMALL WET
MICROBURST THREAT. LARGE HAIL LOOKS MORE UNLIKELY...BUT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE HIGH SBCAPE.
STORMS SHUD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING SOME LINGER MID
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS INTO THE LATE EVENING. WITH HIGH PRES STILL IN
PLACE...WINDS SHUD BE LIGHT AND ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG...ESP IN
THE MTN VLYS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 60S MTNS AND UPR
60S TO LWR 70S PIEDMONT (ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL).
TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED...WITH MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON 500 MB HIGH AROUND 592 DAM CENTERED JUST TO OUR
WEST. PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AND STRONG INSOLATION SHUD RESULT IN
ANOTHER UNCAPPED...MOD-HIGHLY UNSTABLE DAY. SO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACRS THE AREA...STARTING IN THE MTNS
EARLY AFTN. A SMALL PULSE SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY EXIST
AGAIN...GIVEN SIMILAR PROFILES. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...NO SURPRISES WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE IN THE
SHORT TERM. AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH
EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
THAT MEANS WE CAN EXPECT THE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT COULD BE IN PLAY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS SOME OF THE
MODELS ACTIVATE THE LEE TROUGH. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT THAT COVERAGE
WOULD SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE DUE TO GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE UNDER UPPER HIGH. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN
THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE SCT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND A
COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE ON WED...AND 8-10 DEGEREES ABOVE AVE
ON THU ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...STARTING 00Z FRI...THE 500MB RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE SE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE VORTICITY CENTERS PASSING MOSTLY TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD INDICATE THE NUMBER OF MCS
OR MCC CROSSING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. ONE OF THESE VORT
CENTERS CROSSES THE MID APPALACHIANS SATURDAY...BUT THE ECMWF HAS IT
ARRIVING SATURDAY MORNING AND GFS HAS IT WASHING OUT AS IT ARRIVES
LATE SATURDAY. THIS COULD BOOST THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON SATURDAY...MAINLY FOR THE MTNS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
CROSSING TN AND KY ON MONDAY. MODELS SHOW A CLUSTER OF VORTS OVER
THE LOWER MISS VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK POISED TO MOVE IN OUR
DIRECTION. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT NEXT MONDAY WITH
THE GFS HAVING A SIGNIFICANT 500MB TROUGH DIVING SE OVER MISS VALLEY
AND EC HAVING A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WHOLE NATION. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CONTINUED VERY WARM TEMPS. IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...GFS HAS
GREATEST CAPE VALUES LATE SATURDAY OVER NE GA TO SW NC MTNS WITH
AROUND 2500 AT THAT TIME. SEEMS MORE REASONABLE IN THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS MUCH OF WRN NC...WITH
A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS ABOUT 20SM NW OF THE TERMINAL. THEY ARE
WEAKENING AT THE TIME OF THE TAF ISSUANCE...BUT NEW CELLS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE OUTFLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A 4-HR TEMPO FOR TSRA
STARTING AT 19Z. CONVECTION SHUD QUICKLY WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS SHUD BE LIGHT...EXCEPT IF ANY TSTMS GET
CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL. WINDS ARE FAVORING A WSW DIRECTION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. IF THERE IS A SOLID SHRA/TSRA
HITS THE AIRFIELD...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL GO
WITH VFR FOR NOW.
ELSEWHERE...AS MENTIONED WITH KCLT...NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING ACRS
THE REGION. THEY ARE GENERALLY GARDEN VARIETY AND SLOW-MOVING. SO
CONFIDENCE ON A DIRECT IMPACT IS STILL LOW. I WILL GO WITH VCTS AT
ALL SITES FOR THE AFTN HOURS. THE STORMS SHUD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER...BUT OVERALL SKIES
SHUD CLEAR OUT...ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...ESP
IN THE MTNS VLYS. WILL GO WITH MVFR AT KAVL FOR NOW...AND VFR AT THE
OTHER SITES UNTIL WE SEE HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS IN THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
MTNS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN TSRA AND ALSO IN
THE MTN VALLEYS EACH MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM OVER
AREAS OF RECENT RAINFALL.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-19Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 88% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 86% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 86% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
227 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ATOP THE SOUTHEAST REGION
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM...WELL AS ADVERTISED BY THE GSO/FFC SNDGS THIS
MORNING...THERE IS NO INHIBITION...AND HENCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHWRS AND TSTMS HAVE BLOSSOMED QUICKLY ACRS THE CWFA...DESPITE LARGE
HIGH PRES SYSTEM ATOP THE REGION. THE LAPS AND RAP BOTH SHOW 2500 TO
OVER 4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. SO I HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FURTHER FROM
PREVIOUS UPDATE...WITH SOLID CHC TO LIKELY POP ACRS THE MTNS AND
FOOTHILLS...AND CHC POP OVER PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE PIEDMONT. PWATS
ARE 125-150% OF NORMAL AND STORMS ARE SLOW-MOVERS...SO ISOLD HEAVY
RAIN/FLOOD THREAT LOOKS TO EXIST IN ADDITION TO A SMALL WET
MICROBURST THREAT. LARGE HAIL LOOKS MORE UNLIKELY...BUT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE HIGH SBCAPE.
STORMS SHUD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING SOME LINGER MID
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS INTO THE LATE EVENING. WITH HIGH PRES STILL IN
PLACE...WINDS SHUD BE LIGHT AND ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG...ESP IN
THE MTN VLYS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 60S MTNS AND UPR
60S TO LWR 70S PIEDMONT (ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL).
TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED...WITH MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON 500 MB HIGH AROUND 592 DAM CENTERED JUST TO OUR
WEST. PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AND STRONG INSOLATION SHUD RESULT IN
ANOTHER UNCAPPED...MOD-HIGHLY UNSTABLE DAY. SO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACRS THE AREA...STARTING IN THE MTNS
EARLY AFTN. A SMALL PULSE SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY EXIST
AGAIN...GIVEN SIMILAR PROFILES. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE CATEGORIES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM MONDAY...NO SURPRISES WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE IN THE
SHORT TERM. AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH
EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
THAT MEANS WE CAN EXPECT THE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT COULD BE IN PLAY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS SOME OF THE
MODELS ACTIVATE THE LEE TROUGH. HOWEVER...WOULD EXPECT THAT COVERAGE
WOULD SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE DUE TO GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE UNDER UPPER HIGH. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN
THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE SCT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND A
COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE AVERAGE ON WED...AND 8-10 DEGEREES ABOVE AVE
ON THU ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT MONDAY...STARTING 00Z FRI...THE 500MB RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE SE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE VORTICITY CENTERS PASSING MOSTLY TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD INDICATE THE NUMBER OF MCS
OR MCC CROSSING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. ONE OF THESE VORT
CENTERS CROSSES THE MID APPALACHIANS SATURDAY...BUT THE ECMWF HAS IT
ARRIVING SATURDAY MORNING AND GFS HAS IT WASHING OUT AS IT ARRIVES
LATE SATURDAY. THIS COULD BOOST THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON SATURDAY...MAINLY FOR THE MTNS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
CROSSING TN AND KY ON MONDAY. MODELS SHOW A CLUSTER OF VORTS OVER
THE LOWER MISS VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK POISED TO MOVE IN OUR
DIRECTION. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT NEXT MONDAY WITH
THE GFS HAVING A SIGNIFICANT 500MB TROUGH DIVING SE OVER MISS VALLEY
AND EC HAVING A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WHOLE NATION. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CONTINUED VERY WARM TEMPS. IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY...GFS HAS
GREATEST CAPE VALUES LATE SATURDAY OVER NE GA TO SW NC MTNS WITH
AROUND 2500 AT THAT TIME. SEEMS MORE REASONABLE IN THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS MUCH OF WRN NC...WITH
A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS ABOUT 20SM NW OF THE TERMINAL. THEY ARE
WEAKENING AT THE TIME OF THE TAF ISSUANCE...BUT NEW CELLS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE OUTFLOW. SO WILL GO WITH A 4-HR TEMPO FOR TSRA
STARTING AT 19Z. CONVECTION SHUD QUICKLY WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS SHUD BE LIGHT...EXCEPT IF ANY TSTMS GET
CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL. WINDS ARE FAVORING A WSW DIRECTION.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. IF THERE IS A SOLID SHRA/TSRA
HITS THE AIRFIELD...THERE MAY BE SOME FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL GO
WITH VFR FOR NOW.
ELSEWHERE...AS MENTIONED WITH KCLT...NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING ACRS
THE REGION. THEY ARE GENERALLY GARDEN VARIETY AND SLOW-MOVING. SO
CONFIDENCE ON A DIRECT IMPACT IS STILL LOW. I WILL GO WITH VCTS AT
ALL SITES FOR THE AFTN HOURS. THE STORMS SHUD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER...BUT OVERALL SKIES
SHUD CLEAR OUT...ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...ESP
IN THE MTNS VLYS. WILL GO WITH MVFR AT KAVL FOR NOW...AND VFR AT THE
OTHER SITES UNTIL WE SEE HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS IN THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE
MTNS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN TSRA AND ALSO IN
THE MTN VALLEYS EACH MORNING WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY FORM OVER
AREAS OF RECENT RAINFALL.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 88% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 86% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
108 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
QUIET TODAY...THEN RATHER STORMY THROUGH MID-WEEK.
UPPER FLOW ACRS THE CONUS IS QUITE STG AND PRETTY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
FOR EARLY SUMMER. THE LNGWV TROF POSN IS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...WITH RIDGING CENTERED ARND 85W. THE ERN RIDGE WL SHARPEN
AND BUILD NWWD ACRS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...CAUSING THE WRN TROF
POSN TO REFORM BACK OFFSHORE FM THE PAC NW BY NEXT WEEKEND. AS
THOSE LARGE SCALE CHANGES OCCUR...THE MAJOR SHRTWV HEADING OUT OF
THE WRN TROF WL BECOME SEPARATED FM THE MAIN WESTERLIES AND END UP
DRIFTG EWD ACRS THE NRN PLAINS AS A CLOSED UPR LOW.
THE GENERAL WSWLY UPR FLOW ACRS THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WL ALLOW A LARGE POOL OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACRS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...WITH THE FCST AREA SITTING NR
IT/S THE NERN EDGE. THAT IS A FAVORABLE LCN FOR MCS DEVELOPEMNT...
WITH REPEAT EVENTS POSSIBLE...RESULTING IN HEAVY AND POSSIBLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EARLY IN THE PERIOD. PCPN CHCS LATER IN THE
PERIOD BECOME TOUGHER TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDING OF THE NRN PLAINS UPR LOW AND
UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT THE STRENGTH/AMNT LOW-LEVEL RIDGING THAT WL
EDGE INTO THE AREA AS THE ERN NOAM RIDGE SHARPENS BACK NWWD. WARM
TEMPS AND RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE FCST
PERIOD...THEN TEMPS SHOULD EDGE BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS
AND HUMIDITIES WL LIKELY BACK DOWN TOO. OF COURSE...ANY DAYS
DOMINATED BY WIDESPREAD THUNERSTORMS COULD STILL BE COOL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
LOOKS LIKE WE ARE HEADING INTO AN ACTIVE PERIOD AS GOOD PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA HAVE BEEN OUTLOOKED WITH A SLGT RISK OF SVR WX ON
THE SPC DAY 1...DAY 2...AND DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS...INCLUDING
SOME RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE. WI IS MENTIONED FOR POSSIBLE SVR
DAY 4 ALSO...THOUGH WITH THE HIGHER CRITERIA NEEDED TO BE OUTLOOKED
THAT FAR IN ADVANCE THE AREA WAS NOT FORMALLY INCLUDED. AND THAT/S
JUST THE SVR RISKS...THERE IS AT LEAST AS MUCH CONCERN ABOUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
BASIC SCENARIO WL BE FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CROSSED THE
AREA YDA TO SHIFT BACK NWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND GET STRUNG-OUT
W-E JUST S OF THE AREA. ORGANIZED SLY FLOW AT LOW-LEVELS WL FEED
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE BOUNDARY...LIKELY LEADING TO A
SERIES OF CONVECTIVE EVENTS ALONG/N OF THE FRONT. WITH AMPLE SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY...EACH EVENT WL LIKELY BEGIN AS A SERIES OF SVR
CELLS...LIKELY SUPERCELLS...BEFORE GROWING UPSCALE INTO AN MCS.
FCST ISSUES CENTER ON WHERE AND WHEN EACH ROUND OF CONVECTION WL
OCCUR. THIS IS ALSO ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE ANY INDIVIDUAL
ROUND OF STORMS COULD ALTER THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONT...SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING SUBSEQUENT ROUNDS.
TDA SHOULD BE QUIET...BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WL ALLOW TEMPS TO
BECOME QUITE WARM. THE RAP MIXED OUT DWPTS AND ALLOWED TEMPS TO
REACH THE LOW 90S WITH RATHER LOW HUMIDITIES ACRS THE AREA...BUT
WAS AN OUTLIER. WENT WITH BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE...OF
WHICH BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF TEMPS HAVE HANDS DOWN BEEN TOPS
LATELY. THAT SUGGESTED TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AND DWPTS OF MAINLY
MID-UPR 50S AS SOME MIXING OCCURS...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS ON THE RAP.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA WL INCREASE SHARPLY THIS EVENING
AS LLJ STRENTHENS AND GETS DIRECTED INTO WI. THE INITIAL MORE
CELLULAR STORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR W...WITH MCS DEVELOPING AND HEADING
EWD OVERNIGHT. MANY OF THE MODELS TAKE THE CORE OF THE MCS ACRS
NRN WI...BUT BACKWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE
BACKBUILDING INTO THE LLJ IS POSSIBLE. SUSPECT THE SW/SRN PARTS OF
THE FCST AREA ARE MOST AT RISK OF SVR/HEAVY RAIN...SO ADDED HVY
RAIN ATTRIBUTE TO THE GRIDS IN THAT AREA. A FEW OF THE VERY HIGH-
RES MODELS TOOK THE WHOLE COMPLEX THROUGH TO OUR S...WITH LITTLE
PCPN ACRS THE FCST AREA. THOUGH THAT SEEMS LESS LIKELY...IT/S NOT
IMPOSSIBLE. SO HELD BACK A LITTLE ON POPS /DID NOT GO BEYOND
LIKELY/. ALSO HELD OFF ON ADDING ANY EXPLICIT SVR TO THE FCST
UNTIL WE SEE WHERE INITIAL STORMS FIRE AND HOW THE EVOLVE.
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TUE IS FOR REMNANTS OF MCS TO EXIT THE AREA
IN THE MORNING. AFTER THAT...IT WL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ATM TO
RECOVER...SO TOOK POPS DOWN DURING THE MID-DAY...ESP ACRS THE N.
BUT BY LATE IN THE DAY...DEVELOPMENT MAY COMMENCE AGAIN. BEST CHC
WL BE OVER THE SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA...CLOSER TO WHERE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FM PREVIOUS CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE LOCATED.
PLAN TO HIT OVERALL SVR RISK THE NEXT FEW DAYS HARD IN THE HWO...
THOUGH WON/T BE ABLE TO ADD MUCH IN THE WAY OF DETAILS YET.
WL ALSO HOLD OFF ON ESF FOR NOW GIVEN REMAINING QUESTIONS ON THE
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. BUT WL HIT HVY RAIN/FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL HARD IN THE HWO.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE FIRST CHANCE WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SUSPECTING
CONVECTION FROM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY STORMS WILL PUSH BOUNDARY
FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING TONIGHT. AN
EXPECTED SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE FRONT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY FOCUS
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH THAN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY STORMS.
HAVE TRENDED HIGHEST CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND LOWERED RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-45
KNOTS POINTS TO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 200MB JET STREAK AND 0-6KM SHEAR 0F 40 TO 50
KNOTS WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
ANY LINGERING STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY MORNING
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY NOON. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST CANADIAN AND
ECMWF MODELS HAVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY DRY AS AREA WILL BE
WORKED OVER BY TWO MESO SCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED
REASONS. BELIEVE THIS SCENARIO IS PLAUSIBLE AS MCS ACTIVITY
USUALLY PUSHES THE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH AND CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS USUALLY EXERT THEIR FORCE THIS TIME OF YEAR. IF
THIS SCENARIO DOES PLAY OUT...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS WOULD BE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OF NOTABLE INTEREST... THE CANADIAN/ECMWF KEEP
THE FAR NORTHEAST DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH THAT THIS SCENARIO WOULD PLAY OUT THIS FAR OUT.
BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN
THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS MODELS ON THE 500MB FEATURE THAT WOULD
IMPACT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER BY NEXT WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO
THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED CONVECTION AT TIMES. FOR WEDNESDAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...
THEN COOL OFF ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AS WINDS TURN
OFF THE COOLER BAY AND LAKE. DID LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES ON THIS
DAY BY A DEGREE ACROSS GREEN BAY INTO THE LAKE SHORE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN DURING THE TAF VALID PERIOD IS THE PATH OF A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS AND MVFR OR IFR VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE STORMS THAT WILL ALSO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SOME MVFR FOG AND MVFR CIGS
MAY PERSIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE MORNING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG