Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/15/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
601 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL
ACCOMPANY THE ONSHORE FLOW WITH COASTAL CLOUDS BECOMING MORE
EXTENSIVE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH A BRIEF RETURN TO WARMER WEATHER. LATE
IN THE WEEK ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 12:54 PM PDT SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING AND A LOT
OF VARIETY IN THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH.
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THIS AFTERNOON SO NUDGED TODAYS HIGHS
UP A LITTLE IN THE GRID FORECASTS. SFO RUNNING AROUND 80 DEGREES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS TO BRUSH ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY NORTH BAY SO INCREASED
OPAQUE SKY GRID COVERAGE SOMEWHAT.
MODEL TRENDS LOOKS REASONABLE AS TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH SERIES OF DIGGING SHORT WAVES. ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AND NAM HAS OVER 4 MB SFO TO SAC
BY SUNDAY EVENING. SHALLOW MARINE LAYER TO REFORM NEAR THE COAST
OVERNIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO MONDAY. HRRR AND WRF DO NOT INDICATE
HIGH SURFACE RH TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS...SO EXPECT FOG TO RETURN TO
MAINLY COASTAL STRIP PROBABLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PERSISTENT NW
SURFACE WINDS OFFSHORE LEAVES PLENTY OF COLD WATER FOR FORMATION OF
FOG.
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO COAST AND NEAR
COASTAL VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND DOWN THE
SALINAS VALLEY. STRATUS WILL SURGE FURTHER INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. LOOK FOR A COOLING TREND INTO
MONDAY ESPECIALLY COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY AND INLAND MONDAY.
INTRODUCED SOME DRIZZLE NEAR THE COAST SAN MATEO COUNTY SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH STRENGTHING SURFACE LOW OVER
SACRAMENTO VALLEY. EXPECT MORE STRATUS CLOUDS AND LESS VALLEY FOG
UNDER DEEPER MARINE LAYER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THERMAL TROF BACKS TO NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS TO PARALLEL COAST
MIDWEEK FOR CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS IN COASTAL AREAS EXPOSED TO
THE NW SEA BREEZE. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BEGINNING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE
MOVES ONSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK TROF APPROACHES THE COAST FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND FOR THE NEXT COOL DOWN AND MARINE PUSH.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:45 PM PDT SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
DISTRICTWIDE WITH JUST SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING THROUGH.
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
ENHANCEMENT OF THE MARINE LAYER WILL OCCUR TONIGHT ALONG WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RETURN OF THE COASTAL STRATUS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
BOTH IN THAT TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AND THAT CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT ALL BUT KSJC.
VICINITY OF KSFO...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH THE EVENING
RUSH...BUT THEN MODERATE CONFIDENCE MVFR CIG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE ALREADY
PEAKED OUT THOUGH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT STILL POSSIBLE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT CIG DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. CLEARING ON SUNDAY
LOOKS TO BE ON THE LATE SIDE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:41 AM PDT SATURDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONG WINDS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS WITH STEEP FRESH SWELLS
AND WIND WAVES.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION: BLIER
MARINE: SIMS
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
855 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LW
UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. EL PASO COUNTY RED FLAG WARNING
TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM. STILL WINDY BUT HUMIDITIES HAVE CLIMBED WELL
ABOVE CRITERIA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. LW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
CURRENTLY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST
ACROSS UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH MOST AREAS
GUSTING IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. TEMPERATURES ARE HOT WITH 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG WINDS TO PRODUCE VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ANY
OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE POSTPONED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE TRIED TO GET GOING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BUT HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE THE CONTINUED DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING THE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY STALLED OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE SHOULD START TO PROGRESS SOUTH AROUND 6 PM AND PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE STRONG
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH NORTH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH. THERE IS A
CONCERN THAT WINDS COULD BE STRONGER...IF THEY CAN GET HELP FROM
SOUTHWARD SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. SPEAKING OF CONVECTION...MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND INTO THE PALMER
DIVIDE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AND
DRY LIGHTNING IS A CONCERN. FOR NOW JUST HAVE ISOLATED COVERAGE
OVER THESE AREAS. OVER BACA COUNTY...THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR MODELS
ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER BACA COUNTY AROUND
04Z AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED ACTIVITY THERE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ONCE ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES OR MOVES INTO KANSAS.
SUNDAY...ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR REGION.
EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES GIVEN
THE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. AS FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW THE DISTURBANCE LOOKS TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE
ANY IMPACT ON OUR CWA...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH
WILL DRIFT EASTWARD. NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER SUNDAY EVENING. THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE LOW AND ONLY HAVE SILENT POPS. MAIN
WEATHER STORY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS THE DRY AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. ON MONDAY...GRIDS HAVE ALMOST THE
ENTIRE CWA REACHING THE METEOROLOGICAL CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG
WARNING. HOWEVER...LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES ONLY HAVE FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 226 AND 227 (EL PASO COUNTY) WITH CRITICAL FUELS. DECIDED
NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR ONLY THESE TWO
ZONES AND MID SHIFT CAN PROVIDE PLENTY OF LEAD TIME FOR A HIGHLIGHT.
IF FUELS DO BECOME CRITICAL...FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
LIKELY. ON TUESDAY...WINDS ALOFT ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER...BUT SUSPECT
WINDS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR EXCEED RED FLAG CRITERIA...WITH
HUMIDITIES REMAINING LOW. DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME...PERSONS SHOULD STILL BE VERY CAREFUL
WITH ANY OPEN FLAMES.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH WILL PASS
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
STRONGLY FAVOR KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORMS
WILL VERY LIKELY STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. OTHER CONCERN WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG
WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS... EVEN WITH MINIMAL MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. GRIDS ARE STINGY WITH POPS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...GIVEN THE LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE HIGHER
THAN POP VALUES. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.
FINALLY...HAVE CONCERNS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND
HUMIDITY ON WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM...REGION COULD STILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY COOL ENOUGH FOR
HUMIDITIES TO BE JUST ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA.
.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST AND A
WARM AND DRY RIDGE ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. GFS HAS +20C
TEMPERATURES AT 700MB OB SATURDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HOT
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW STAYS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION FOR
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS COULD PROVIDE
SOME WEAK UPSLOPE TO THE PLAINS...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE EDGE OFF
OF THE HEAT. A MODEST PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALSO MOVE
INTO THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
KALS...STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KTS ARE
LIKELY ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE.
KCOS AND KPUB...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 TO 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER KPUB. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
MOVING INTO KCOS AROUND 00Z/SUN AND SHORTLY THERE AFTER FOR KPUB.
STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE RAMPART RANGE WEST OF KCOS BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT
THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
555 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. EL PASO COUNTY RED FLAG WARNING
TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM. STILL WINDY BUT HUMIDITIES HAVE CLIMBED WELL
ABOVE CRITERIA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. LW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
CURRENTLY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST
ACROSS UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH MOST AREAS
GUSTING IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. TEMPERATURES ARE HOT WITH 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG WINDS TO PRODUCE VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ANY
OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE POSTPONED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE TRIED TO GET GOING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BUT HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE THE CONTINUED DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING THE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY STALLED OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE SHOULD START TO PROGRESS SOUTH AROUND 6 PM AND PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE STRONG
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH NORTH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH. THERE IS A
CONCERN THAT WINDS COULD BE STRONGER...IF THEY CAN GET HELP FROM
SOUTHWARD SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. SPEAKING OF CONVECTION...MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND INTO THE PALMER
DIVIDE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AND
DRY LIGHTNING IS A CONCERN. FOR NOW JUST HAVE ISOLATED COVERAGE
OVER THESE AREAS. OVER BACA COUNTY...THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR MODELS
ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER BACA COUNTY AROUND
04Z AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED ACTIVITY THERE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ONCE ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES OR MOVES INTO KANSAS.
SUNDAY...ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR REGION.
EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES GIVEN
THE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. AS FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW THE DISTURBANCE LOOKS TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE
ANY IMPACT ON OUR CWA...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH
WILL DRIFT EASTWARD. NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER SUNDAY EVENING. THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE LOW AND ONLY HAVE SILENT POPS. MAIN
WEATHER STORY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS THE DRY AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. ON MONDAY...GRIDS HAVE ALMOST THE
ENTIRE CWA REACHING THE METEOROLOGICAL CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG
WARNING. HOWEVER...LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES ONLY HAVE FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 226 AND 227 (EL PASO COUNTY) WITH CRITICAL FUELS. DECIDED
NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR ONLY THESE TWO
ZONES AND MID SHIFT CAN PROVIDE PLENTY OF LEAD TIME FOR A HIGHLIGHT.
IF FUELS DO BECOME CRITICAL...FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
LIKELY. ON TUESDAY...WINDS ALOFT ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER...BUT SUSPECT
WINDS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR EXCEED RED FLAG CRITERIA...WITH
HUMIDITIES REMAINING LOW. DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME...PERSONS SHOULD STILL BE VERY CAREFUL
WITH ANY OPEN FLAMES.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH WILL PASS
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
STRONGLY FAVOR KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORMS
WILL VERY LIKELY STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. OTHER CONCERN WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG
WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS... EVEN WITH MINIMAL MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. GRIDS ARE STINGY WITH POPS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...GIVEN THE LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE HIGHER
THAN POP VALUES. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.
FINALLY...HAVE CONCERNS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND
HUMIDITY ON WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM...REGION COULD STILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY COOL ENOUGH FOR
HUMIDITIES TO BE JUST ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA.
.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST AND A
WARM AND DRY RIDGE ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. GFS HAS +20C
TEMPERATURES AT 700MB OB SATURDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HOT
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW STAYS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION FOR
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS COULD PROVIDE
SOME WEAK UPSLOPE TO THE PLAINS...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE EDGE OFF
OF THE HEAT. A MODEST PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALSO MOVE
INTO THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
KALS...STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KTS ARE
LIKELY ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE.
KCOS AND KPUB...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 TO 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER KPUB. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
MOVING INTO KCOS AROUND 00Z/SUN AND SHORTLY THERE AFTER FOR KPUB.
STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE RAMPART RANGE WEST OF KCOS BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT
THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ226-227.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
730 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.
ON SUNDAY, EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO CONCENTRATE OVER THE INTERIOR AND
POSSIBLY CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST. GIVEN THIS...ONLY ADDED VCSH
FOR THE EAST COAST AT THIS TIME, BUT INCLUDED VCTS FOR KAPF
BEGINNING SUN AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE INTERIOR REGIONS...IN
GENERAL COVERAGE IS NOT EXTENSIVE YET WITH THE HRRR MODEL
INDICATING A LATER START TO THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER RADAR
RETURNS ALREADY INDICATED POSSIBLE HAIL IN THE CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHWEST INTERIOR BROWARD COUNTY WITH A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EARLIER ANALYSIS FROM THE 12Z SOUNDING
INDICATING AN ENHANCED 700 TO 500 HPA LAPSE RATE...DRIER AIR IN
THE HAIL GROWTH REGION OF -20 T0 -30 CELSIUS AND A THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST. THEREFORE AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH HAIL TO NEAR ONE INCH POSSIBLE AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH OR JUST OVER.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...I.E. THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND FOR THE
COVERAGE TO INCREASE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH LATEST HRRR RUNS. SO FAR THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
WINDS AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS KEEPING CONVECTION CONFINED
TO THE INTERIOR REGIONS. HOWEVER...WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE SEA
BREEZE AND CURRENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THE CONVECTION COULD STILL
AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS LATER. PLUS THERE IS LOW TO
MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT COULD HELP THE CONVECTION DRIFT
INTO THE METRO AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SUNDAS AND THEREAFTER IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD BUT COULD LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED 700-500 HPA LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THAT COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...WITH PWAT`S FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 1.6 INCHES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
MARINE...
WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SEAS FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 89 75 88 / 30 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 89 78 89 / 10 30 20 20
MIAMI 77 90 77 89 / 10 30 20 30
NAPLES 73 90 73 91 / 20 30 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
414 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE US WILL MAINTAIN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
(-10C AT 500 MB). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS IS OVERSPREADING THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW BETTER SFC
HEATING. THE RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER SC WITH VORT LOBE ENERGY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE FL WEST
COAST...LIFTING NE. ALL OF THIS PORTENDS ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE DAY AND HAVE RAISED GFS MOS POPS 10-20 PERCENT...50 POP
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL/60 POP SOUTH.
MESOSCALE MODELS (HRRR AND LOCAL WRF) SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS
FIRST AFFECTING LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES THIS MORNING WHICH
APPEARS REASONABLE. THEN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTH DURING
THE AFTN WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EXPECTED. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE NORTH OF THE CAPE. BUT EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE TO FORM SOUTH
OF THE CAPE BY MID AFTN AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOR STORMS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SOME STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS.
TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION WORKING OVER ANY RESIDUAL INSTABILITY. SHOULD BE A
QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING AT
LEAST NORTHERN HALF OF FA.
SAT-SUN...
SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/NE GOMEX WILL BE REINFORCED BY A
FRONTAL TROF PUSHING THRU THE ARKLATEX THIS MORNING. POSITION OF THE
TROF WILL KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER THE S FL
PENINSULA TO START THE WEEKEND. PROSPECTS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
PENETRATE MUCH FURTHER S THAN CENTRAL GA/AL ARE QUITE LOW AS THE
H30-H20 SUBTROPICAL JET IS WEAK WITH WINDS AOB 50KTS...WHILE ITS
ORIENTATION W OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY IS LARGELY ZONAL.
AS THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES ACRS THE MIDWEST AND THE OH/TN
RIVER VALLEYS...IT WILL BRIDGE THE FRONTAL TROF AND BEGIN TO DRAW
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY BACK TO THE N. W/SW FLOW WILL
PERSIST THRU THE H85-H50 STEERING LYR...BUT WILL DIMINISH BY LATE
WEEKEND. THIS FLOW REGIME FOCUSES DIURNAL PRECIP OVER THE E FL
PENINSULA AS THE WRLY FLOW PUSHES THE WEST COAST BREEZE ACRS THE
STATE WHILE TRAPPING THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST.
DEEP MOISTURE ACRS THE REGION WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES AOA
70PCT...H85-H50 VALUES AOA 60PCT. H70 TEMPS HOVERING ARND 6C AND H50
ARND 10C WILL YIELD AVG MID LVL LAPSE RATES BTWN 5.5-6.5C/KM...NOT
EXPLOSIVELY CONVECTIVE BUT RESPECTABLE. MID LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL
BE PRESENT AS WELL IN THE FORM OF A WEAK H85-H50 VORT AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE CENTRAL GOMEX...THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEAK JET WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPR LVL EVACUATION.
SCT-LKLY POPS THRU THE WEEKEND...FOCUSING HIGHEST NUMBERS ON THE
COAST ON SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONGER W/SW STEERING FLOW. LIKELY
POPS AREAWIDE ON SUN AS THE SW FLOW DIMINISHES AND ALLOWS THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND. TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEG
OF CLIMO AVG...AFTN MAXES IN THE L/M90S...MRNG MINS IN THE L/M70S.
MON-THU...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL COMPLETE ITS RELOCATION BACK TO THE FL
PANHANDLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT MERGES WITH THE POST FRONTAL
RIDGE AND FILLS IN THE REMNANT FRONTAL TROF. THE RESULTING ERLY
ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM
EARLIER AND MAKE A DEEPER INLAND PENETRATION. DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION...BUT THE
FOCUS WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR EARLY TO START THE WEEK...SHIFTING
TO THE WEST PENINSULA BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR THRU 12Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL APPROACH INTRR TERMINALS FROM
THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING COVERAGE THIS AFTN ESP
MCO SOUTHWARD. EXPECT A SE WIND SHIFT AFT 17Z ASSOCD WITH THE SEA
BREEZE MLB SOUTHWARD. EXPECT HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE HERE SO
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA FROM VRB-SUA AFT 19Z. MAINTAINED
VCTS ELSEWHERE FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN S/SW FLOW 15-20 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH (VOLUSIA) AND CENTRAL (BREVARD) WATERS
WILL DECREASE 10 TO 15 KNOTS AROUND SUNRISE. SEAS UP TO 4 FEET
WELL OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 FT PRETTY QUICKLY AS
WINDS DECREASE THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET WHERE THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD FORM. THE OFFSHORE
MOVING STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AGAIN
TODAY.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN THE S/SW FLOW MAY PRODUCE
15-20 KNOTS OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WATERS. ONGOING CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS IN THE EVE WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE AREA.
SAT-SUN...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER S FL WILL MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO
MODERATE W/SW BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC. OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL
RESULT IN A LIMITED FETCH LENGTH THAT WILL KEEP SEAS 1-2FT NEARSHORE
AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE. THE DEEP WRLY FLOW THRU THE COLUMN WILL PUSH
DIURNAL CONVECTION OFFSHORE THRU THE WEEKEND.
MON-TUE...RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT BACK N TO THE PANHANDLE...WITH A
LIGHT TO GENTLE SFC/BNDRY LYR BREEZE SHIFTING TO THE S/SE. SEAS
1-2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 89 70 88 73 / 50 20 60 30
MCO 92 71 92 72 / 50 20 50 20
MLB 88 71 88 73 / 50 20 60 30
VRB 88 70 89 73 / 60 30 60 30
LEE 92 72 91 73 / 50 20 50 20
SFB 93 73 92 73 / 50 20 50 20
ORL 92 74 92 74 / 50 20 50 20
FPR 88 70 89 73 / 60 30 60 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
949 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
The tornado threat appears to have diminished across Republic and
Cloud counties due to the discrete storms lifting into NEB.
However the overall threat for severe storms still remains
overnight from the storms in northwest KS that are producing
damaging straight line winds. After collaborating with media and
EM partners, we felt it was better to go ahead and cancel the
tornado watch now while storms are still a couple hours away. Then
we`ll deal with the northwest KS convection as it gets closer.
The latest RAP and NAM forecasts show surface based CIN remaining
near zero along and just ahead of the frontal boundary with some
instability and increasing deep layer shear. Because of this we
are anticipating that the damaging wind threat could persist
through the early morning hours as the storms move east.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
The main focus for the short term is on the potential for strong to
severe storms to develop late tonight through the overnight hours.
Water vapor imagery showed the mid-level low centered over Montana,
with the trough continuing to dig southward across the Rockies as it
pivots eastward. Models show this mid-level low remaining fairly
stationary into Sunday morning with the trough pivoting eastward
into the High Plains late tonight. This advancing trough will help
to push the area of low pressure currently situated over western
Kansas further east across the region. The combination of the
associated cold front and an embedded shortwave that models show
developing over northwest KS and tracking into southeast NE should
help to support the development of thunderstorms late tonight
through the overnight hours. Latest short range models show the
potential for a few discrete supercells developing near the
strengthening dryline and advancing cold front over northwest Kansas
and tracking northeastward into southern Kansas. These discrete
storms may barely clip far north central Kansas early this evening.
With the cap steadily weakening across that region, MUCAPE values
reaching into the 2500-3500 J/kg range, and steep lapse rates in the
mid-levels, these storms would likely be severe. However, it`s worth
noting that this area of instability is not co-located with the best
shear (which is further west), but still would expect 0-6km bulk
shear values of 30kts to possibly 40kts. The primary severe threats
over far north central Kansas would be large hail and damaging
winds, however with decent low-level helicities in place, cannot
rule out the potential for an isolated tornado or two in that
region.
As the embedded shortwave catches up with the cold front late
tonight, models have been suggesting that a QLCS may develop over
western/central Kansas and track eastward through the overnight
hours into Sunday morning. Models are in fairly good agreement in
having the cold front move into north central Kansas by 05z-06z and
along a line stretching from Hiawatha to Topeka by around 12z. Most
of the precipitation should be focused along and behind the front,
however could see some scattered storms develop ahead of the front
along any outflow boundaries. This line of storms is progged to
enter into far north central KS between 04z-06z and gradually
progress eastward through the overnight hours. While these storms
should weaken some as they track eastward, there still looks to be
enough instability and shear to support some severe thunderstorms
with large hail and damaging winds. The main concern through the
overnight period will be the potential for damaging straight line
winds as a very strong southwesterly low-level jet (60-70kts at
850MB) develops over central KS by 06z. Even though this low-level
jet will weaken some as it moves east, 0-6km bulk shear should be
upwards of 40-50kts.
By Sunday morning, this activity should be focused across far
northeast and east central Kansas. Models show the cold front
tracking just south of the forecast area by late morning, but it may
stall out over southeast KS and southern Missouri through the day.
As a result, could see additional shower and thunderstorm
development along this boundary extend as far north as into east
central Kansas. With 2000-3000J/kg of MUCAPE and 30-40kts of 0-6km
bulk shear, any storms that were to develop over east central KS
could become strong to severe with large hail and strong winds
possible.
As for temperatures, increased cloud cover tonight will keep
temperatures warmer across eastern KS (into the upper 60s/near 70
degrees), but may cool into the lower 60s over north central KS
after the storms track to the east. Highs for Sunday should reach
into the low/mid 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
By Sunday evening the cold front that pushes through the area will
stall out over SE KS as the mid/upper low lifts northeast into
Canada. Shower and thunderstorm develop is possible along this
boundary in far SE KS during the evening hours. Overnight the front
lifts northward as the return flow becomes established and low level
moisture increases. Precip chances appear to linger into Monday
morning until clearing out in the afternoon. High temps warm
into the low to mid 90s with the arrival of southwest flow and
warmer 850 MB temps. The dewpoints will also remain high and low
temps struggle to drop below the mid 70s on Monday night. Tuesday
should be mostly dry with high temps again in the low to mid 90s.
On Wednesday a strong mid/upper level trough digs into the central
Rockies, and as it approaches the models are suggesting a possible
lead short wave that would cause showers and thunderstorms during
the afternoon and evening. Although there is model disagreement on
the exact track and timing of these weak disturbances. On Wednesday
night the main trough lifts into the plains causing more widespread
precip across the region. A cold front is forecast to pass through
the area sometime on Thursday and or Friday therefore keeping the
chance for showers and thunderstorms around. The models do disagree
on if the trough that lifts out stays together as one piece of
energy or there is more phasing. This will play a role in the speed
of the front as well as if a surface low occludes and slowly drifts
through the northern plains and upper Midwest. Temps later in the
week will be regulated by the increased precip chances and possible
cloud cover. High temps generally stay in the 80s with lows in the
60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
Latest model guidance continues to show the best chances for
convection occur as the shortwave lifts through eastern NEB and
brings a FROPA through the area. Additionally the latest
HRRR/ARW/NMM have a similar timing of the convection moving
through the terminals, which lines up with the prev forecast. So
have not deviated much from the prev forecast. Biggest uncertainty
is how low the CIGS might be with the convection. Hopefully will
be able to watch OBS upstream as storms approach.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
233 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD BECOME
SEVERE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING SINCE
WINDS HERE AT KGLD AND AT KITR HIT GUST CRITERIA. SOME LOCATIONS MAY
ALSO REACH CRITERIA BASED ON SUSTAINED WINDS OF 26+ MPH FOR 3 HOURS.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN AREA FOR STRONG WINDS IS OVER CENTRAL
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS THE
TIGHTEST. LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST COULD POSSIBLE HIT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT SEEMS SLOW TO MOVE AND DAYTIME
MIXING WILL DECREASE ONCE IT GETS FURTHER EAST. HOWEVER...KEPT ALL
COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN BREEZY INTO SATURDAY.
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
AS A WARM FRONT IN WESTERN NEBRASKA/EASTERN COLORADO MOVES THROUGH
THE CWA AND A DRYLINE STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE CWA BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CWA...WHICH WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY IN DEVELOPING DUE TO A STRONG
CAP IN PLACE...BUT THE LIFT AVAILABLE MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE
CAP. INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO BECOME STRONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT MODEL TO MODEL
RUNS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE SO NOT RELYING
ON IT TOO HEAVILY TODAY. THE NAM HAS PRECIPITATION OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHILE THE GFS HAS PRECIPITATION OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERING
OPINIONS ABOUT THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...IT IS A LITTLE HARDER TO
PIN DOWN EXACT LOCATIONS OF THUNDERSTORMS. FOR POP GRIDS...WENT
AHEAD AND PUT IN UP TO 30 POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY...THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE IN
PLACE AS AN 80 TO 90 KT JET STREAK MOVES OVERHEAD FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MONTANA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. INSTABILITY IS MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN LATELY WITH CAPE VALUES
AROUND 2000 TO 3000 J/KG OVER EASTERN COUNTIES IN THE CWA AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE AND ANOTHER AREA OF INSTABILITY AROUND 1500 TO 2500 J/KG
WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR ALSO LOOKS GOOD WITH 35 TO
40 KTS EAST AND 50 TO 70 KTS WRAPPING AROUND. MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS
GOOD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S IN BOTH THE EAST AND THE
NORTH. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR...MOISTURE...AND MULTIPLE
BOUNDARIES WITHIN THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WOULD NOT RULE OUT
LARGE HAIL OF 2 INCHES...DAMAGING WINDS OF 70+ MPH...AND TORNADOES
ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELLS AND MULTIPLE BOUNDARY MERGERS. THIS
THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
CLUSTERING TOGETHER AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE EAST BY EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOVE THROUGH DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS. STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. TORNADOES CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS AND
LCLS IMPROVE. STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT
WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LEFT.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED.
RAPID 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES INDICATE THAT WINDS MAY REACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT PASSES.
ANOTHER POSSIBLE THREAT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS
FOG. WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...DIMINISHING WINDS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES...FOG MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING. DID NOT
MENTION THIS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS WILL DIE OFF BEHIND THE FRONT.
CALM WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA AS A COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASS
THROUGH. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE FORECAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A LEE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE...ALLOWING SOUTH WINDS TO RETURN BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY
BRINGING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL PRIME THE TRI-STATE REGION FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT WEEK.
A DRYLINE SLIDES INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SETS UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. A COUPLE
PIECES OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IF THE FORCING IS STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK
THE CAP. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE IF THE CAP IS BROKEN.
A LARGER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY EVOLVE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW
MOVEMENT OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY.
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET...FALLING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND STRONG
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH...THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A LARGER SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE
THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE. IF A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES OUT
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BEFORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE MAY
SET UP TO THE EAST AND LEAVE THE TRI-STATE REGION DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OVER KGLD WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVER
KMCK. THE BROKEN LOW CLOUD DECK OVER KGLD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST...BUT IT IS FAIRLY WELL DEVELOPED SO KEPT IT AS A PREVAILING
GROUP FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
BOTH TERMINALS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER BOTH TERMINALS AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING...GUSTING BETWEEN 35 TO 40 KTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS SLOW TO PUSH EAST AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
OVER THE AREA TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER KGLD TOMORROW AS A DRYLINE MOVES EAST AND A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...WITH KMCK APPEARING TO
HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A WARM FRONT IN EASTERN
COLORADO WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH KGLD FIRST AND THEN KMCK WITH A
DRYLINE DEVELOPING JUST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH KGLD BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z AND THROUGH
KMCK BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z. INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAIN. LARGE
HAIL COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN
COMPLETE AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...BUT HAVE THE TEMPO GROUP FOR A FIRST BEST
GUESS WITH TIMING BASED ON THE HRRR AND NAM GUIDANCE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ALW
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
122 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD BECOME
SEVERE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING SINCE
WINDS HERE AT KGLD AND AT KITR HIT GUST CRITERIA. SOME LOCATIONS MAY
ALSO REACH CRITERIA BASED ON SUSTAINED WINDS OF 26+ MPH FOR 3 HOURS.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN AREA FOR STRONG WINDS IS OVER CENTRAL
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS THE
TIGHTEST. LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST COULD POSSIBLE HIT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT SEEMS SLOW TO MOVE AND DAYTIME
MIXING WILL DECREASE ONCE IT GETS FURTHER EAST. HOWEVER...KEPT ALL
COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN BREEZY INTO SATURDAY.
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
AS A WARM FRONT IN WESTERN NEBRASKA/EASTERN COLORADO MOVES THROUGH
THE CWA AND A DRYLINE STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE CWA BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CWA...WHICH WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY IN DEVELOPING DUE TO A STRONG
CAP IN PLACE...BUT THE LIFT AVAILABLE MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE
CAP. INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO BECOME STRONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT MODEL TO MODEL
RUNS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE SO NOT RELYING
ON IT TOO HEAVILY TODAY. THE NAM HAS PRECIPITATION OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHILE THE GFS HAS PRECIPITATION OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERING
OPINIONS ABOUT THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...IT IS A LITTLE HARDER TO
PIN DOWN EXACT LOCATIONS OF THUNDERSTORMS. FOR POP GRIDS...WENT
AHEAD AND PUT IN UP TO 30 POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY...THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE IN
PLACE AS AN 80 TO 90 KT JET STREAK MOVES OVERHEAD FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MONTANA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. INSTABILITY IS MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN LATELY WITH CAPE VALUES
AROUND 2000 TO 3000 J/KG OVER EASTERN COUNTIES IN THE CWA AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE AND ANOTHER AREA OF INSTABILITY AROUND 1500 TO 2500 J/KG
WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR ALSO LOOKS GOOD WITH 35 TO
40 KTS EAST AND 50 TO 70 KTS WRAPPING AROUND. MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS
GOOD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S IN BOTH THE EAST AND THE
NORTH. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR...MOISTURE...AND MULTIPLE
BOUNDARIES WITHIN THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WOULD NOT RULE OUT
LARGE HAIL OF 2 INCHES...DAMAGING WINDS OF 70+ MPH...AND TORNADOES
ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELLS AND MULTIPLE BOUNDARY MERGERS. THIS
THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
CLUSTERING TOGETHER AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
THE MAIN EVENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL STAGNATE AND SLOWLY MOVE INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND WILL
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA FOR A MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE JET POSITIONS
LOOK TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME THREAT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
AT THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE INSTABILITY THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL SET
UP ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...LEAVING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY WITH THE INITIAL PUSH
OF DYNAMICS ALOFT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTER THE FIRST TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS AND OUT OF THE
AREA. A SECOND WAVE WILL ENTER THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...RETURNING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DUE TO UNCHANGING POSITIONS ALOFT...SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
DRAPED OVER THE TRI STATE AREA EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS
COULD POTENTIALLY PLAY A ROLE IN A DIFFICULT HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IF COLDER AIR SHIFTS INTO THE AREA LOWER THAN EXPECTED.
FOR NOW...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WARM AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL FOR
THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WHICH IS
WHERE THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOST LIKELY
SET UP.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL APPROACH THE CRITICAL VALUE OF 15%. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT. WINDS WILL BE
QUESTIONABLE MONDAY WITH GUIDANCE DIFFERING A BIT ON THE
STRENGTH...BUT SOME SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME STRONGER WIND ALOFT TUESDAY
THAT COULD BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR AS
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BE A RESULT...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING THE
BEST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OVER KGLD WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVER
KMCK. THE BROKEN LOW CLOUD DECK OVER KGLD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST...BUT IT IS FAIRLY WELL DEVELOPED SO KEPT IT AS A PREVAILING
GROUP FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
BOTH TERMINALS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER BOTH TERMINALS AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING...GUSTING BETWEEN 35 TO 40 KTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS SLOW TO PUSH EAST AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
OVER THE AREA TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER KGLD TOMORROW AS A DRYLINE MOVES EAST AND A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...WITH KMCK APPEARING TO
HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A WARM FRONT IN EASTERN
COLORADO WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH KGLD FIRST AND THEN KMCK WITH A
DRYLINE DEVELOPING JUST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH KGLD BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z AND THROUGH
KMCK BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z. INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAIN. LARGE
HAIL COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN
COMPLETE AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...BUT HAVE THE TEMPO GROUP FOR A FIRST BEST
GUESS WITH TIMING BASED ON THE HRRR AND NAM GUIDANCE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ALW
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1138 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA THAT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AND THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID DAY AND BE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
IN REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY. EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
THE LARGER FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN 60+ DEGREE
DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH GOOD
DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AS
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PRODUCE
AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES THAT WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS TRANSITIONING INTO AN MCS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THAT WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AREAS FURTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE. ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ALONG THEN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND AREAS FURTHER TO THE NORTH IN THE VICINITY OF
THE COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
THE MAIN EVENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL STAGNATE AND SLOWLY MOVE INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND WILL
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA FOR A MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE JET POSITIONS
LOOK TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME THREAT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
AT THE MOMENT...MOST OF THE INSTABILITY THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL SET
UP ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...LEAVING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY WITH THE INITIAL PUSH
OF DYNAMICS ALOFT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTER THE FIRST TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS AND OUT OF THE
AREA. A SECOND WAVE WILL ENTER THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...RETURNING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DUE TO UNCHANGING POSITIONS ALOFT...SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
DRAPED OVER THE TRI STATE AREA EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS
COULD POTENTIALLY PLAY A ROLE IN A DIFFICULT HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IF COLDER AIR SHIFTS INTO THE AREA LOWER THAN EXPECTED.
FOR NOW...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WARM AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL FOR
THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WHICH IS
WHERE THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOST LIKELY
SET UP.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL APPROACH THE CRITICAL VALUE OF 15%. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT. WINDS WILL BE
QUESTIONABLE MONDAY WITH GUIDANCE DIFFERING A BIT ON THE
STRENGTH...BUT SOME SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME STRONGER WIND ALOFT TUESDAY
THAT COULD BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR AS
DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BE A RESULT...WITH TUESDAY LOOKING THE
BEST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OVER KGLD WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVER
KMCK. THE BROKEN LOW CLOUD DECK OVER KGLD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST...BUT IT IS FAIRLY WELL DEVELOPED SO KEPT IT AS A PREVAILING
GROUP FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER
BOTH TERMINALS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER BOTH TERMINALS AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING...GUSTING BETWEEN 35 TO 40 KTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS SLOW TO PUSH EAST AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
OVER THE AREA TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER KGLD TOMORROW AS A DRYLINE MOVES EAST AND A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...WITH KMCK APPEARING TO
HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A WARM FRONT IN EASTERN
COLORADO WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH KGLD FIRST AND THEN KMCK WITH A
DRYLINE DEVELOPING JUST BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. EXPECTING
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH KGLD BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z AND THROUGH
KMCK BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z. INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAIN. LARGE
HAIL COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN
COMPLETE AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...BUT HAVE THE TEMPO GROUP FOR A FIRST BEST
GUESS WITH TIMING BASED ON THE HRRR AND NAM GUIDANCE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
345 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SLICING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. A
FEW CLUSTERS OF STORMS REMAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT MAINLY
ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES
CLIMBED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S IN THE EAST AHEAD OF THE
PCPN...WHILE PEAKING IN THE LOWER 70S TO THE WEST. STILL SOME
SUNSHINE IN THE FAR EAST WHILE CLOUDS ARE THICKER AND MORE EXTENSIVE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT THE CLEARING LINE IS NOT FAR TO
THE WEST OF THE JKL CWA. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...VARY FROM THE
MIDDLE 60S IN THE EAST AND THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY TO THE LOWER
60S IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE BECOMING NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH ITS
PASSAGE...STILL GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TO
START THE WEEKEND. RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND OVER
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THE AGREEMENT HAVE
GONE WITH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND AND SPECIAL EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND
THE NAM12 THROUGH THE FIRST TWELVE HOURS...USHERING THE FRONT EAST
OF THE STATE.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE FRONT AND ITS CONVECTION MOVING
EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD FOLLOW BY MIDNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS CAA WILL BE COMPETING WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...HAVE
BROUGHT THE DEEPER VALLEYS DOWN THE LOWEST...UPPER 40S...WITH THE
RIDGES NOT MUCH WARMER IN THE LOWER 50S. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND EXPECTATION OF FOG FORMATION
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE VALLEYS...LIKELY BECOMING DENSE IN THE VALLEYS
TOWARDS DAWN. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING ON SATURDAY WITH A
VERY NICE DAY TO FOLLOW UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME RESIDUAL FOG
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN SUNDAY.
AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD AND WINDS
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY BEFORE FILLING THE REST WITH THE BCCONSALL.
DID FINE TUNE THE VALLEY AND RIDGE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR ADVECTION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR POPS...ASIDE FROM
THE NEXT FEW HOURS HAVE KEPT THEM VERY LOW...IN LINE WITH ALL MOS
GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS BRINGING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY ON MONDAY...WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST REMAINING STRONG AND CONTINUING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
SURFACE FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH LATE ON MONDAY BUT BECOMES
STALLED NORTH OF THE OH RIVER. THE NORTHERN JET STREAM BECOMES
AMPLIFIED INTO THE MID WEEK BUT CONFINED TO THE NORTH LEAVING A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND ALSO OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE OH VALLEY.
CONCERNING THE PATTERN AND THE MODEL CONSISTENCY. EVEN THE FEW
PERTURBATIONS IN THE PATTERN...LET ALONE SOME OF THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT FEATURES...SHOW LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE EURO BRINGS THE STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA...WHERE THE GFS KEEPS THE STALLED BOUNDARY NORTH OF
THE RIVER FOR THE TUE THROUGH THU TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY
MOIST FLOW MON THRU THU...WILL NEED TO AT LEAST KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...HITTING A MAXIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...THE RESULT OF THE ALL MODEL BLEND WAS QUITE GENEROUS WITH
POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WHILE THIS IS A BIT MUCH...THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THIS PATTERN AND THE BEHAVIOR OF THE MODELS WOULD
SWAY ONE TO STAY CLOSER TO THE MODEL ALL BLEND VALUES. AS
WELL...WITH THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...THE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S SEEM TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH
THIS SET UP AND A HOT AND HUMID STRETCH OF DAYS STARTING ON MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE CASE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
A COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME MVFR CIGS AND VIS POSSIBLE DURING ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO THE
DEVELOP. HAVE GONE WITH A TEMPO AT JKL AND LOZ FOR THE MAIN
CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH ATTM. ONCE THE BETTER SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVE OUT...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING. CLEARING SKIES AND ONLY LIGHT NORTH WINDS
WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOG FORMATION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BECOMING
LOCALLY DENSE...AGAIN TONIGHT. HAVE BROUGHT THE SME...LOZ...AND SJS
SITES TO LIFR FOR THIS TOWARDS DAWN WITH IFR EXPECTED FOR AT TIME AT
JKL. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN AND PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
123 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.AVIATION...
CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON IS RATHER SPORADIC WITH THE BETTER CU
FIELD RESIDING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX INTO
N LA. COLD FRONT AS OF 18Z WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND LATEST HRRR OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT LFK COULD DEAL WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR THAT
REASON...MADE MENTION OF VCTS AT THE LFK TERMINAL FROM 13/20Z THRU
14/03Z.
COLD FRONT HAS MADE ABOUT AS MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AS ITS GOING
TO MAKE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTH BEYOND
14/06Z. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE RETURNING FRONT
DURING THE PREDAWN AND MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014/
DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS PROBABLY ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO QUICKER
SOUTHERLY MIGRATION OF CONVECTION OUT OF THE ARKLATEX. THEREFORE...WENT
AHEAD AND DECREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY...LEAVING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST IS
ON TRACK. /05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 68 90 71 91 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
MLU 64 89 69 92 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
DEQ 61 87 68 90 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
TXK 64 87 70 90 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
ELD 62 88 68 91 70 / 10 10 10 10 10
TYR 69 90 72 90 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
GGG 67 90 71 90 73 / 10 10 10 10 10
LFK 70 92 72 91 73 / 10 20 10 20 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
617 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND CROSS THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
617 PM UPDATE...RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MAINE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR
CAPE COD. THE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD ALL OF NORTHERN MAINE EARLY
THIS EVENING AND THE HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE LOCATION OF THE
RAIN ATTM. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER BACK TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS
AND RADAR TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW NEAR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. GREATEST RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST ALONG A WEAK COASTAL WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHERE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL IN SOME PLACES. THE
RAIN WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS MAY THEN
MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN AREAS TOWARD MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
THE FRONT KEEPING A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY WITH SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE OVER WESTERN AREAS
DURING THE MORNING THEN ACROSS THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE STATE. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND
THE LOW TO MID 50S DOWNEAST WHERE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THE LONGEST. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP AS A MAINLY DRY DAY AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SLOWLY BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR
70 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND LOWER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
DOWNEAST. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER A DRY START MONDAY EVENING...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL START TO
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT THERE WILL BE THE
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS AN UPPER TROF
REMAINS JUST TO OUR EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITION ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR IN LOW CLOUDS
AND RAIN THIS EVENING, THEN REMAIN IFR THROUGH SATURDAY IN LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SOME FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES IN COASTAL
AREAS ON SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP FOR ALL THE WATERS TONIGHT THEN THE
OUTER WATERS ON SATURDAY. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 6 FT AT THE EASTERN
MAINE SHELF AND TO 7FT AT THE JORDAN BASIN EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN OVER 5 FT IN
RESPONSE TO THE EARLIER SOUTH WINDS. HUMID AIR MOVING OVER THE
WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME FOG ON SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BE GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/CB
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...BLOOMER/CB/DUDA
MARINE...BLOOMER/CB/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1251 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND
CROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1250 AM UPDATE...LARGE SWATH OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS ACCORDING TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE, WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
THE SITUATION. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE ALONG A
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS WHERE A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH MAY FALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE RAIN WILL BE
MORE INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY DOWNEAST. TONIGHTS ROUND OF STEADY
OVERUNNING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT.
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING LOW OVERCAST AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. MOST
OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE OVER WESTERN AREAS. ANOTHER AREA OF STEADY
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO DOWNEAST AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTH WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN IS IN STORE FOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. MOST AREAS LOOK TO PICK UP ANOTHER HALF
INCH TO INCH OF RAIN.
12Z NAM AND GFS HAVE SLOWED DOWN TIMING OF SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ON SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE IT MAY NOT COME THROUGH UNTIL MIDDAY TO
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A NICE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO ACCOMPANY IT.
AFTER PERHAPS A LITTLE BREAK AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT`S RAIN, MAY SEE
CONVECTION FIRE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AND HAVE A
CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
CERTAINLY WE WILL BE DRYING OUT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY,
WITH MUCH DRIER NW FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND DRY FOR MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER, THAT RIDGE MOVES EAST OF US LATE MONDAY AND WE GET
INTO MOISTER AND UNSTABLE WESTERLY FLOW, LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.
IN THIS SORT OF PATTERN IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME THE FAST-MOVING
SHORTWAVES, SO JUST PUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THEN IFR FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR FRIDAY NIGHT IN RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT IN GUSTS TONIGHT AND CONTINUING ON
FRIDAY. SOME FOG WILL LIKELY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DUE TO WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ONSHORE FLOW. COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...BLOOMER/HASTINGS/FOISY
MARINE...BLOOMER/HASTINGS/FOISY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
724 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATER TODAY AND WILL HOLD ON THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RATHER MINOR AS A DRY FCST IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY REAL CHC OF RAIN WILL
COME RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD ON SUN AFTERNOON.
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A DRY FCST SHOULD PAN OUT FOR THE DAY TODAY. A
FAIRLY POTENT UPPER TROUGH IS DIVING SE TOWARD THE AREA THIS MORNING
AND WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA
BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FOR A SHORT
TIME. THAT SAID...FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE AIR ALOFT IS NOT
THAT COLD. THIS WILL CAP THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER UNDER THE WAVE. IT WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWFA. WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE CWFA PEAKING AROUND 18Z WITH SUN BEFORE
AND AFTER. H850 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS C AND CLOUD COVER WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
WE WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WARMING TEMPS FROM LATER
TODAY AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND INTO SUN MORNING. UPPER
RIDGING NOW JUST MOVING INTO THE PLAINS STATES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATER SAT. SFC RIDGING WILL DOMINATE WITH
DRIER AIR TO KEEP CLOUD COVER LIMITED TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS. COOL
TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH DRY AIR...LIGHT WINDS...AND A
COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. SOME FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE UP NORTH AT THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE LOWER TEENS
C FOR SAT...SUPPORTING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 70S.
SUN WILL START OUT DRY AND MILD...WITH THE CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS INCREASING SOME FOR LATER SUN AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SFC RIDGE WILL INCREASE AND EVENTUALLY INCREASE THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP INTO THE AREA. THE CHC WILL START SUN
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE BETTER CHC OF RAIN WILL COME BEYOND SUN
AFTERNOON WHEN THE MOISTURE AXIS AND LLJ CROSS THE AREA. H850 TEMPS
INCHING UP INTO THE MID TEENS C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS ABOVE 80F WITH
ENOUGH SUN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
IT WOULD SEEM A VERY SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN IS STORE FOR
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN THIS COMING WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS SEEM LIKELY
SUNDAY NIGHT... THEN AGAIN IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR BOTH EVENTS. DAY TIME
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 80S MON INTO WEDNESDAY. COOLER
WEATHER SEEMS ON THE WAY BY THURSDAY AND BEYOND.
MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD INTO MONDAY BUT BEYOND THAT ISSUES WITH
DEVELOPING WESTERN NORTH AMERICA TROUGH MAKES FORECASTING ANYTHING
DOWN STREAM OF THAT QUESTIONABLE. WE START OUT WITH A WAVY UPPER JET
PATTERN WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS OVER PACIFIC
NORTHWEST... OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE BERING SEA. OVER TIME A
COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH YET ANOTHER SYSTEMS NEAR THE NORTH POLE
SUGGEST A DEEPENING WESTERN TROUGH BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK. THAT WOULD BUILD A RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CONUS INTO CENTRAL
CANADA BY THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THAT IN TURN WOULD RESULT IN A
DOWN STREAM TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
WOULD BE ON THE EXTREME WESTERN END OF THAT EASTERN TROUGH.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SYSTEM IS SHEARED INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO MONDAY. THAT BRINGS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. JET ENTRANCE REGION LIFT
WOULD HELP TO BRING SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME SORT OF WEAK SURFACE HIGH WOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. IT WOULD REMAIN WARM AS WE DO NOT REALLY GET
INTO THE COOL AIR WITH THIS ONE. THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE ALSO SHEARS
OUT OVER THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE BUT MAY STILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING AN ROUND OF STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT MORE THAN LIKELY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN WITH BUT IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR FRONT TO STALL INSTEAD
OF COMING THROUGH CLEANLY WEDNESDAY. IF IT DOES STALL EXPECT PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM INTO THURSDAY.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY MORNING... THEN
WARM WEATHER INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE POCKET OF COLDEST AIR
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BASED ON RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS... MKG MAY WELL HAVE AN
MVFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE MORNING. ELSEWHERE CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR AS THE CLOUD DECK MOVES THROUGH. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR AND WINDS WILL LET UP. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT...HOWEVER
THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL WE WILL NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
BEGINNING SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. WE WILL SEE SOME WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK GRADIENT WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH SAT BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
A CONSENSUS OF LATEST MEDIUM RANGE COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE WX PATTERN TO DEVELOP DURING
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE PATTERN APPEARS POTENTIALLY
CONDUCIVE TO THE FORMATION OF SEVERAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY REACH 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AT TIMES NEXT
WEEK ALONG WITH STRONG 1000-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT TIMES. SOME
OF THE RAINFALL NEXT WEEK COULD POTENTIALLY BE HEAVY AND THOSE
SYSTEMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
HYDRO ISSUES.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...NJJ/LAURENS
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1241 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE NORTHLAND AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
RAIN CONTINUED TO FALL OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE RAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN INTO
BAYFIELD/DOUGLAS/WASHBURN COUNTIES WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY DRIVEN
BY A STANDING WAVE DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW DOWN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE RAP SHOWS THE SET UP FOR THE STANDING WAVE
BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE BY LATE EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND
WINDS DIMINISH.
WE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TONIGHT AND CLOUD
COVER...OTHERWISE FEW OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. WE`LL
HAVE TO MONITOR TEMP TRENDS CLOSELY WITH DEWPOINTS
LOWERING...WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND CLEARING SKIES. WE
COULD SEE SOME CHILLY READINGS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
FOCUS FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE ON TIMING THE EXIT OF
THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A STACKED LOW CURRENTLY ROTATING OVER THE
FAR EASTERN TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD. AT 300 PM...RADAR IMAGERY WAS
SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP ACROSS THE MN IRON
RANGE/ARROWHEAD AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. THIS AREA OF
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW
RETREATS OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO ONTARIO.
LATEST RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL AND AREA WEATHER STATIONS ARE
REPORTING THAT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS
ACROSS KOOCHICHING...ITASCA...CASS...AND PORTIONS OF AITKIN
COUNTIES. BASED ON REPORTS OF MINOR FLOODING FROM LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AND SPOTTERS...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF KOOCHICHING AND ITASCA COUNTIES FOR RAPID RIVER/STREAM
RISES AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. THESE AREAS WILL SEE A FEW LINGERING
SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
RAIN.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE CLEARING LINE ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER
OF THE DULUTH CWA...FROM KBRD TO KBRD AND KSTC. THE CLEARING WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES
INTO CENTRAL MN. THE RIDGING WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO THE WESTERN
ZONES...WHERE SOILS ARE VERY SATURATED...SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG
WORDING FOR AREAS IN NORTH CENTRAL MN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AN EXTENSIVE SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FRI NIGHT ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES WILL BE REPLACED BY AN INCOMING
LEAD S/W AND SFC TROUGH FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL USHER IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SAT
MORNING W TO E THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...A STRONG PUSH OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL
ADVECT IN ALONG THE NOSE OF A 40-50 KT LLJ. A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT
WILL SET UP ACROSS NRN MN AND SLIDE EWD INTO THE NRN WI/SRN LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE DAY SAT...AND THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THIS
FRONT WILL DENOTE WHERE THE POTENTIAL SFC-BASED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH...AND WHERE THE ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL MOST
LIKELY FORM ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE SFC LOW WILL START OFF
AS AN ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS AND MORPH SLOWLY EWD
THROUGH THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES AMONG
THE MODELS INDICATING HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE...EITHER WITH
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED LOWS ROTATING NEWD THROUGH THE REGION OR A SINGLE
SFC LOW STRENGTHENING AND LIFTING N/NEWD INTO NRN MN AND WRN
ONTARIO. THE SFC LOW/UPPER SHRT WV AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL
LINGER INTO SUNDAY. THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL BE MODEST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EITHER WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. PWATS WILL RISE OVER ONE
AND A QUARTER INCHES WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO PRODUCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMTS...EXCEEDING ONE INCH WITH
NUMEROUS LOCATIONS LIKELY APPROACHING 2 INCHES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE
NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY AND MON
NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN BECOMES FAIRLY CHAOTIC INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK WITH MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE NEXT
SERIES OF SHRT WVS. HAVE KEPT WITH A CONSENSUS WITH REGARDS TO
PRECIP POTENTIAL...LEAVING CHC POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF RATHER CHILLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
AN E WIND OFF LS...CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL ONLY
REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S AROUND THE LAKE...AND 60S AND LOWER 70S
INLAND. LOWS SAT AND SUN MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S THROUGH THE WEEK...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...WITH
THE RAIN DIMINISHING. SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THERE. OVERALL THOUGH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD FOR MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
OVER WESTERN AREAS WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION CAUSING WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHTER TONIGHT/FRIDAY. A RETURN FLOW WITH STRENGTHENING
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. WE LEFT THE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT FOR NOW...AS BEST CHANCES
OCCUR AFTER 06Z SAT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 50 59 50 65 / 30 90 80 70
INL 50 61 50 63 / 40 70 70 70
BRD 55 68 57 71 / 50 80 80 60
HYR 50 71 55 72 / 20 60 70 60
ASX 47 69 50 70 / 20 60 80 70
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ121-140>142-146>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...STEWART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
256 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.NEAR TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
CURRENT MESOANALYSIS HAS THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA WITH THE LI DOWN TO -6. THE
ACCUMULATION OF MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR TOWARDS THE NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER IS SIMILAR TO EXPECTATIONS FROM MODEL GUIDANCE.
WESTERN US LONG WAVE TROUGH IS TRANSITING THE AREA AND WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TONIGHT. AREA OF
SOUTHWESTERLY 500MB FLOW OF OVER 50 KTS WILL BE ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW THIS EVENING AND MAY HELP DYNAMICAL FORCING. STRONG MID-
LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IN AREAS
NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...COMBINE
TO MAKE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS IN THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA WHERE A SEVERE STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING.
NON SEVERE THUNDER STORMS ARE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CWA FROM
THE WEST. HRRR HAS NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING AFTER 3PM
AND WESTERN SHOWERS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. THIS IS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE DYNAMICAL ASSISTANCE OF THE PASSING LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND FORECAST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AROUND 78
DEGREES...NEAR THE HIGHS. MARTIN
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY... A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA AND TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM ORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW AS A
CLOSED LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS AND DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MONTANA.
IN THE MEANTIME...A RIDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE U.S. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A STATIC SYNOPTIC PATTERN
UNFOLDING AS THESE FEATURES MOVE VERY LITTLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND
END OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN FAVORABLE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...FREQUENT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POTENTIAL. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL BE
ABLE TO NARROW DOWN SPECIFIC TIME PERIODS A BIT BETTER AS
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVES TRANSLATING THROUGH
THE FLOW IMPROVES. ADDITIONAL CONCERNS WILL SURROUND THE PHASE
BETWEEN CONVECTION AND PLACEMENT OF INSTABILITY. SHOULD THEY
COINCIDE AT ANY GIVEN TIME THE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS. THIS MAY INDEED BE THE CASE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. MALIAWCO
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A CONFUSED AND
DISORGANIZED LACK OF CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
WHILE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC CONSENSUS IS SOMEWHAT ACCEPTABLE AND
BETTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE REVEALED...THERE STILL REMAIN
ENOUGH SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE DIFFERENCES TO KEEP FORECAST
CONFIDENCE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF RESPITE
BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
EVOLUTION...TIMING...AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH ARRIVES FROM THE CANADIAN WEST COAST...MOVES OUR
PACIFIC NW STATES...EXPANDS OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN STATES
REGION...AND EVENTUALLY EJECTS NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION. WITH THAT IN MIND...THIS WILL PROVE TO BE OVERALL A VERY
SLOW-MOVING STORM SYSTEM. BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW SEVERAL PERIODS
OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT DIFFER
GREATLY REGARDING AMOUNTS AND TIMING.
OF INTEREST WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF HEIGHTENED INSTABILITY TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH OF COURSE STILL NEEDS TO BE WORKED
OUT BEFORE ANY CONCLUSIONS FOR THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY CAN BE MADE
THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. BMICKELSON
&&
.AVIATION...
A MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE AREA AND WILL LEAD
TO SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
EVENING. MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED...AND PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR.
COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A WIND SHIFT THIS
AFTERNOON FROM AROUND 10 KTS SOUTHEASTERLY TO AROUND 10 KTS NORTH
BY NORTHWESTERLY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KTS CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BROKEN CEILINGS DOWN TO 3000 FT AGL. MARTIN
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
959 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD
COVER TRENDS. HRRR HAS CURRENT THUNDER SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING OUT
OF THE AREA...THIS IS IN ALIGNMENT WITH RADAR TRENDS. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MORE THUNDERSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING OUT WEST
AND MOVING EASTWARD.
FORECAST CAPE IS MODEST OVER MOST AREAS. STORM SCALE ENSEMBLE HAS
MOST SEVERE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WHERE
INSTABILITY IS BETTER. STILL...DEEP LAYER SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON IS
QUITE STRONG WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS OF UP TO 60 KTS. AND BACKED
850MB WINDS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW ARE UP TO 25KTS. SO SEVERE
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER
WHERE MODELS PLACE THE INSTABILITY AXIS. MARTIN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COOL AND
OCCASIONALLY WET AND WINDY WEEKEND FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA.
JET PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MONTANA...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTH EASTERLIES IN
EASTERN MONTANA. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS
FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF CWA THIS
MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MAINLY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...AND
POSSIBLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WHERE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
SOUTH EASTERLIES WILL PERSIST LONGEST IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST...FOR
BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST...STRONG WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS FORT PECK LAKE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GOOD COLD
AIR ADVECTION SO HAVE ISSUED LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND FEATURES UPPER TROF MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. BEST MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE ON SATURDAY...BUT NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY WHILE THE UPPER TROF AXIS TRACKS ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA. SLIGHT UPPER RIDGE OCCURS ON SUNDAY BUT NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROF IS FOLLOWING QUICKLY. EBERT
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A CONFUSED AND
DISORGANIZED LACK OF CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
WHILE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC CONSENSUS IS SOMEWHAT ACCEPTABLE AND BETTER
THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE REVEALED...THERE STILL REMAIN ENOUGH SEVERAL
SMALLER-SCALE DIFFERENCES TO KEEP FORECAST CONFIDENCE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF RESPITE
BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
EVOLUTION...TIMING...AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH ARRIVES FROM THE CANADIAN WEST COAST...MOVES OUR
PACIFIC NW STATES...EXPANDS OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN STATES
REGION...AND EVENTUALLY EJECTS NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION. WITH THAT IN MIND...THIS WILL PROVE TO BE OVERALL A VERY
SLOW-MOVING STORM SYSTEM. BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW SEVERAL PERIODS
OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT DIFFER
GREATLY REGARDING AMOUNTS AND TIMING.
OF INTEREST WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF HEIGHTENED INSTABILITY TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH OF COURSE STILL NEEDS TO BE WORKED
OUT BEFORE ANY CONCLUSIONS FOR THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY CAN BE MADE
THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. BMICKELSON
&&
.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL STORM CROSSES THE REGION.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS...VFR WILL PREVAIL. MOST OF THE ORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE PERIPHERY OF THE GREATER REGION.
SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF A SMALL STORM CELL
HAPPENS TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE.
WINDS...QUITE GUSTY FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST EARLY TODAY AROUND
THE 20G30 MPH RANGE...FOLLOWED BY A DRY COOL FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING BREEZY WINDS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH.
BMICKELSON/MARTIN
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
950 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.UPDATE...
IT APPEARS WE HAVE HAD A FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH BILLINGS EARLY
THIS MORNING WHICH IS EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. THIS MIGHT BE DUE
TO THE CONVECTION UP ON THE FRONT RANGE LAST NIGHT WHICH PUSHED IT
SOUTHEAST FASTER. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS
INDICATES DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN
WYOMING FROM SOUTHEAST IDAHO AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS. THESE
FACTORS MAY VERY WELL LIMIT DEEP INSTABILITY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
EAST/SOUTHEAST CORNER OF MONTANA LATER TODAY...WHICH IS SUPPORTED
BY RECENT RAP SUNDINGS. WE WILL HAVE CONVECTION MOVE OVER OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WHILE CAPE IS
MARGINAL...WE MAY HAVE SOME SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS DUE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR HELPING TO SUSTAIN ANY UPDRAFTS.
UPDATE IS OUT WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS...INCLUDING POPS AND TEMPS
DUE TO EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER WESTERN
ZONES. BT
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
INTERESTING DAY COMING AS DYNAMIC LOW OVER THE PAC NW MOVES SLOWLY
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THERE HAS BEEN ABUNDANT NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...SOME OF IT SEVERE...IN NORTH CENTRAL MT UNDER VERY
DIFFLUENT SW FLOW ALOFT. MORE RECENTLY...SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
FROM ROSEBUD TO SHERIDAN COUNTIES EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO WEAKER
ENERGY AND 200-300 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE...ALONG WITH LLJ FORCING.
ONE OTHER ISSUE EARLY THIS MORNING IS A BRIEF WINDOW OF MOUNTAIN
WAVE POTENTIAL AHEAD OF APPROACHING PACIFIC FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE LEE OF THE BIG HORNS. WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE MTNS WITH
45 MPH GUSTS AT BURGESS JCT. IN FACT...AT AROUND 230AM A 10-20 MPH
SW WIND DEVELOPED AT SHERIDAN PUSHING THE TEMP THERE TO 73
DEGREES. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW 40-45 KTS AT 1-2KFT AGL THRU 5-6AM...
SO EXPECT SOME ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH POSSIBLE.
PACIFIC FRONT CURRENTLY IN WESTERN MONTANA AND EASTERN IDAHO IS
PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SHIFT AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO OUR EAST...
AND COMBINATION OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND UP TO 50KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR GIVES US SOLID SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IN OUR
FAR EASTERN ZONES...ALBEIT FOR A SHORT TIME DEPENDING ON SPEED OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
SHIFT COMPLETELY INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 00Z. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS IN OUR
EAST...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR AN INCH.
ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH IS SHERIDAN COUNTY AS SREF SEVERE PARAMETERS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN HITTING THIS AREA AS SFC FRONT SETTLES ON
THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BIG HORNS. A COMPLICATING FACTOR HERE IS
THE ADVECTION OF VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR FROM THE GREAT BASIN THRU
WY...WITH THE RAP AND GFS SHOWING DEEP MIXING OF THIS DRY AIR IN
THE LEE OF THE BIG HORNS THIS AFTN. THIS WOULD CANCEL ANY SEVERE
RISK FOR SHERIDAN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS
DRY AIR AND THE SFC FRONT TODAY...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING THE
GREATER SEVERE RISK SHOULD BE FURTHER EAST TODAY. ELSEWHERE...WEST
OF SFC FRONT...AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER AND NOT AS UNSTABLE BUT
STILL SUPPORTIVE OF TSTM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY AS ASCENT INCREASES
WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROF. SCATTERED POPS FOR NON-SEVERE
CONVECTION SHOULD SUFFICE FOR OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...WITH
SOME SMALL HAIL A POSSIBILITY.
UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA ON
SATURDAY. ASCENT NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AS THIS LOW BECOMES
POSITIVELY TILTED...BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT ARE MORE
THAN ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS ESPECIALLY DURING
PEAK HEATING. 700MB TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW 0C BY LATE
TONIGHT SO EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS AND CRAZIES.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TODAY WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOW 80S...AGAIN WITH EXISTING PREFRONTAL CONDITIONS. COULD SEE MID
TO EVEN UPPER 80S IN THE LEE OF THE BIG HORNS IF THE AIRMASS
BECOMES WELL-MIXED. SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 60S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW MID JUNE NORMALS.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
MODELS INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN IMPACTING OUR AREA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS BEEN
THE MORE CONSISTENT MODELS AND WILL LEAN FORECAST TOWARD ITS
SOLUTION.
WEAK RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. SOME OF THIS
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER SC/SE MT AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CARVES OUT A LARGE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE UPPER FLOW TO BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST SETTING UP
A EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. LARGE DISCREPANCIES CONTINUES WITH THE
LONG RANGE MODELS IN THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. HAVE NOT MADE TO MANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
AND WILL WAIT FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY BEFORE RAISING POPS. HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
FOR NEXT WEEK. RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM KLVM TO HARLOWTON TO
RYEGATE AND OVER KBHK THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY ACCOMPANY
THESE STORMS. EXPECT LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WITH AREAS OF
OBSCURATION OVER THE CRAZYS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL CONTAIN MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE SE OF
KMLS AND E OF KSHR WITH LOWER CONDITIONS...WINDS GUSTS OF AT LEAST
50 KT...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SURFACE WIND SHIFT TO THE
NW E OF KBIL THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING WITH
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 075 049/066 047/073 050/074 050/071 050/072 052/074
2/T 45/T 33/T 34/T 44/T 43/T 32/T
LVM 068 041/063 040/070 043/069 044/068 043/070 045/075
5/T 55/T 33/T 44/T 44/T 33/T 32/T
HDN 077 050/067 045/075 049/077 051/072 048/074 052/077
2/T 35/T 33/T 24/T 44/T 43/T 32/T
MLS 081 053/067 048/073 051/076 052/072 052/074 054/074
2/T 33/T 22/T 23/T 44/T 45/T 52/T
4BQ 085 051/067 046/073 050/077 051/074 051/074 052/075
4/T 35/T 42/T 23/T 44/T 44/T 42/T
BHK 077 051/067 047/070 049/073 051/070 050/071 051/071
3/T 44/T 22/T 23/T 44/T 44/T 42/T
SHR 079 047/064 041/072 047/076 047/071 046/072 048/074
3/T 44/T 32/T 24/T 44/T 43/T 33/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
533 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.UPDATE...
NW WINDS AND WEAK PRESSURE RISES HAVE REACHED BILLINGS AS OF 5AM.
THIS SEEMS TO BE THE LEADING EDGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT...ITS SPEED
NO DOUBT AIDED BY CONVECTION IN NORTH CENTRAL MT DURING THE NIGHT.
NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 19 MPH AT JUDITH GAP...SO LOOKS LIKE W-NW
SFC FLOW IS HERE TO STAY. FROPA A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT SO HAVE ADJUSTED WIND GRIDS AND OPTED TO COOL TEMPS IN
OUR NW PARTS A BIT...INCLUDING BILLINGS. JKL
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
INTERESTING DAY COMING AS DYNAMIC LOW OVER THE PAC NW MOVES SLOWLY
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THERE HAS BEEN ABUNDANT NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...SOME OF IT SEVERE...IN NORTH CENTRAL MT UNDER VERY
DIFFLUENT SW FLOW ALOFT. MORE RECENTLY...SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
FROM ROSEBUD TO SHERIDAN COUNTIES EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO WEAKER
ENERGY AND 200-300 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE...ALONG WITH LLJ FORCING.
ONE OTHER ISSUE EARLY THIS MORNING IS A BRIEF WINDOW OF MOUNTAIN
WAVE POTENTIAL AHEAD OF APPROACHING PACIFIC FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE LEE OF THE BIG HORNS. WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE MTNS WITH
45 MPH GUSTS AT BURGESS JCT. IN FACT...AT AROUND 230AM A 10-20 MPH
SW WIND DEVELOPED AT SHERIDAN PUSHING THE TEMP THERE TO 73
DEGREES. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW 40-45 KTS AT 1-2KFT AGL THRU 5-6AM...
SO EXPECT SOME ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH POSSIBLE.
PACIFIC FRONT CURRENTLY IN WESTERN MONTANA AND EASTERN IDAHO IS
PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SHIFT AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO OUR EAST...
AND COMBINATION OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND UP TO 50KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR GIVES US SOLID SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IN OUR
FAR EASTERN ZONES...ALBEIT FOR A SHORT TIME DEPENDING ON SPEED OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
SHIFT COMPLETELY INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 00Z. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS IN OUR
EAST...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR AN INCH.
ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH IS SHERIDAN COUNTY AS SREF SEVERE PARAMETERS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN HITTING THIS AREA AS SFC FRONT SETTLES ON
THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BIG HORNS. A COMPLICATING FACTOR HERE IS
THE ADVECTION OF VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR FROM THE GREAT BASIN THRU
WY...WITH THE RAP AND GFS SHOWING DEEP MIXING OF THIS DRY AIR IN
THE LEE OF THE BIG HORNS THIS AFTN. THIS WOULD CANCEL ANY SEVERE
RISK FOR SHERIDAN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS
DRY AIR AND THE SFC FRONT TODAY...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING THE
GREATER SEVERE RISK SHOULD BE FURTHER EAST TODAY. ELSEWHERE...WEST
OF SFC FRONT...AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER AND NOT AS UNSTABLE BUT
STILL SUPPORTIVE OF TSTM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY AS ASCENT INCREASES
WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROF. SCATTERED POPS FOR NON-SEVERE
CONVECTION SHOULD SUFFICE FOR OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...WITH
SOME SMALL HAIL A POSSIBILITY.
UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA ON
SATURDAY. ASCENT NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AS THIS LOW BECOMES
POSITIVELY TILTED...BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT ARE MORE
THAN ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS ESPECIALLY DURING
PEAK HEATING. 700MB TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW 0C BY LATE
TONIGHT SO EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS AND CRAZIES.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TODAY WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOW 80S...AGAIN WITH EXISTING PREFRONTAL CONDITIONS. COULD SEE MID
TO EVEN UPPER 80S IN THE LEE OF THE BIG HORNS IF THE AIRMASS
BECOMES WELL-MIXED. SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 60S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW MID JUNE NORMALS.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
MODELS INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN IMPACTING OUR AREA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS BEEN
THE MORE CONSISTENT MODELS AND WILL LEAN FORECAST TOWARD ITS
SOLUTION.
WEAK RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. SOME OF THIS
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER SC/SE MT AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CARVES OUT A LARGE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE UPPER FLOW TO BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST SETTING UP
A EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. LARGE DISCREPANCIES CONTINUES WITH THE
LONG RANGE MODELS IN THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. HAVE NOT MADE TO MANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
AND WILL WAIT FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY BEFORE RAISING POPS. HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
FOR NEXT WEEK. RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 18Z TODAY. A
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY AND THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM KMLS TO KBHK THIS
MORNING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR ANY
STORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOPE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
BROADUS NORTHEAST TO BAKER. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. RICHMOND
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 076 049/066 047/073 050/074 050/071 050/072 052/074
3/T 45/T 33/T 34/T 44/T 43/T 32/T
LVM 072 041/063 040/070 043/069 044/068 043/070 045/075
5/T 65/T 33/T 44/T 44/T 33/T 32/T
HDN 080 050/067 045/075 049/077 051/072 048/074 052/077
3/T 45/T 33/T 24/T 44/T 43/T 32/T
MLS 081 053/067 048/073 051/076 052/072 052/074 054/074
3/T 33/T 22/T 23/T 44/T 45/T 52/T
4BQ 083 051/067 046/073 050/077 051/074 051/074 052/075
4/T 45/T 42/T 23/T 44/T 44/T 42/T
BHK 079 051/067 047/070 049/073 051/070 050/071 051/071
4/T 54/T 22/T 23/T 44/T 44/T 42/T
SHR 082 047/064 041/072 047/076 047/071 046/072 048/074
3/T 34/T 32/T 24/T 44/T 43/T 33/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
325 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
INTERESTING DAY COMING AS DYNAMIC LOW OVER THE PAC NW MOVES SLOWLY
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THERE HAS BEEN ABUNDANT NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...SOME OF IT SEVERE...IN NORTH CENTRAL MT UNDER VERY
DIFFLUENT SW FLOW ALOFT. MORE RECENTLY...SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
FROM ROSEBUD TO SHERIDAN COUNTIES EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO WEAKER
ENERGY AND 200-300 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE...ALONG WITH LLJ FORCING.
ONE OTHER ISSUE EARLY THIS MORNING IS A BRIEF WINDOW OF MOUNTAIN
WAVE POTENTIAL AHEAD OF APPROACHING PACIFIC FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE LEE OF THE BIG HORNS. WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE MTNS WITH
45 MPH GUSTS AT BURGESS JCT. IN FACT...AT AROUND 230AM A 10-20 MPH
SW WIND DEVELOPED AT SHERIDAN PUSHING THE TEMP THERE TO 73
DEGREES. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW 40-45 KTS AT 1-2KFT AGL THRU 5-6AM...
SO EXPECT SOME ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH POSSIBLE.
PACIFIC FRONT CURRENTLY IN WESTERN MONTANA AND EASTERN IDAHO IS
PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SHIFT AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO OUR EAST...
AND COMBINATION OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND UP TO 50KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR GIVES US SOLID SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IN OUR
FAR EASTERN ZONES...ALBEIT FOR A SHORT TIME DEPENDING ON SPEED OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
SHIFT COMPLETELY INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 00Z. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS IN OUR
EAST...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR AN INCH.
ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH IS SHERIDAN COUNTY AS SREF SEVERE PARAMETERS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN HITTING THIS AREA AS SFC FRONT SETTLES ON
THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BIG HORNS. A COMPLICATING FACTOR HERE IS
THE ADVECTION OF VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR FROM THE GREAT BASIN THRU
WY...WITH THE RAP AND GFS SHOWING DEEP MIXING OF THIS DRY AIR IN
THE LEE OF THE BIG HORNS THIS AFTN. THIS WOULD CANCEL ANY SEVERE
RISK FOR SHERIDAN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS
DRY AIR AND THE SFC FRONT TODAY...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING THE
GREATER SEVERE RISK SHOULD BE FURTHER EAST TODAY. ELSEWHERE...WEST
OF SFC FRONT...AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER AND NOT AS UNSTABLE BUT
STILL SUPPORTIVE OF TSTM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY AS ASCENT INCREASES
WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROF. SCATTERED POPS FOR NON-SEVERE
CONVECTION SHOULD SUFFICE FOR OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...WITH
SOME SMALL HAIL A POSSIBILITY.
UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA ON
SATURDAY. ASCENT NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AS THIS LOW BECOMES
POSITIVELY TILTED...BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT ARE MORE
THAN ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS ESPECIALLY DURING
PEAK HEATING. 700MB TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW 0C BY LATE
TONIGHT SO EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS AND CRAZIES.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TODAY WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOW 80S...AGAIN WITH EXISTING PREFRONTAL CONDITIONS. COULD SEE MID
TO EVEN UPPER 80S IN THE LEE OF THE BIG HORNS IF THE AIRMASS
BECOMES WELL-MIXED. SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 60S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW MID JUNE NORMALS.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
MODELS INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN IMPACTING OUR AREA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS BEEN
THE MORE CONSISTENT MODELS AND WILL LEAN FORECAST TOWARD ITS
SOLUTION.
WEAK RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. SOME OF THIS
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER SC/SE MT AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CARVES OUT A LARGE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE UPPER FLOW TO BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST SETTING UP
A EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. LARGE DISCREPANCIES CONTINUES WITH THE
LONG RANGE MODELS IN THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. HAVE NOT MADE TO MANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
AND WILL WAIT FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY BEFORE RAISING POPS. HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
FOR NEXT WEEK. RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 18Z TODAY. A
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY AND THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM KMLS TO KBHK THIS
MORNING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR ANY
STORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOPE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
BROADUS NORTHEAST TO BAKER. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. RICHMOND
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 049/066 047/073 050/074 050/071 050/072 052/074
3/T 45/T 33/T 34/T 44/T 43/T 32/T
LVM 073 041/063 040/070 043/069 044/068 043/070 045/075
5/T 65/T 33/T 44/T 44/T 33/T 32/T
HDN 081 050/067 045/075 049/077 051/072 048/074 052/077
3/T 45/T 33/T 24/T 44/T 43/T 32/T
MLS 081 053/067 048/073 051/076 052/072 052/074 054/074
3/T 33/T 22/T 23/T 44/T 45/T 52/T
4BQ 083 051/067 046/073 050/077 051/074 051/074 052/075
4/T 45/T 42/T 23/T 44/T 44/T 42/T
BHK 079 051/067 047/070 049/073 051/070 050/071 051/071
4/T 54/T 22/T 23/T 44/T 44/T 42/T
SHR 082 047/064 041/072 047/076 047/071 046/072 048/074
3/T 34/T 32/T 24/T 44/T 43/T 33/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
SEVERE WEATHER IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.
UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE AS
HIGH AS AROUND 100 METERS AT 500 MB. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAS A 105
KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. THERMAL TROUGH AT 700 MB
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. 850 MB MOISTURE WAS LACKING LOCALLY...BUT WILL BE
RETURNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP DEWPOINTS OF 16 C OR MORE THAT WERE
OVER WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION...WE COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY LINGER OR WE MAY SEE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FROM 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
THAT IS NOT TO SAY SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT POSSIBLE BEFORE OR AFTER
THAT...BUT THAT IS THE MAIN WINDOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MAY BECOME TOO WARM FOR CONVECTION BEFORE EARLY
EVENING...WITH 12Z NAM INCREASING 700 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE 11-
14C RANGE AT 21Z. BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE CAP WILL DECREASE OR
BREAK BY 00Z OR SOONER. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO KEEP
OUR AREA CAPPED UNTIL CLOSER TO 6 OR 7 PM BUT THOSE WERE NOT FAVORED
AT THIS TIME. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE HRRR MODEL DOES
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT HAS DONE A GOOD JOB FOR THE MOST PART ON
SOME OF OUR RECENT SEVERE EVENTS.
THE FOCUS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/COLD
FRONT PUSHING EAST AND ALSO NEAR AND EAST OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
MAIN DRY LINE SHOULD BE FARTHER SOUTH IN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME HIGHLY UNSTABLE...WITH ML CAPE VALUES
POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR FROM 30-50
KNOTS. SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY MERGE OR
COMBINE INTO ONE OR MORE COMPLEXES...WITH THREAT GRADUALLY SHIFTING
MORE TOWARD WIND AND HEAVY RAIN AFTER 10 PM. TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
HIGHEST NEAR ANY BOUNDARIES AND JUST EAST OR NORTHEAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
FOR SATURDAY...WITH GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
FOR DEEP MIXING...DECIDED TO BUMP HIGHS UP A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. IF CLOUD COVER AND/OR PCPN COVERAGE IS GREATER THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THIS COULD NEGATIVELY AFFECT HIGHS.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD END SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND INSTABILITY DROPS OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY. AFTER THE EARLY MORNING THREAT OF STORMS SUNDAY...
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...WE EXPECT THE REST OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT TO BE DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH
RANGING TO MID 80S SOUTH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY START TO RETURN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE SO ON MONDAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE MONDAY...BUT WITH A MUCH LOWER THREAT THAN FOR SATURDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL
AMPLIFY...BUT WITH LITTLE PROGRESSION THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL
PCPN CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED PDS PRETTY MUCH REVOLVING AROUND
BNDRY AND MOISTURE INTERACTION AS NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THRU. BEGINNING MON NIGHT...WARMER FRONT/MID LYR
AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ASSOC WITH SFC LOW NEAR THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
WILL LIFT THRU THE CWA AND BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM ACTIVITY THRU THE
NIGHT. WITH AN OPEN GULF...QUITE GENEROUS LLVL MOISTURE ADV WILL
ENSURE A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE PER KI VALUES OF
40. IN ADDITION...GIVEN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR PCPN EFFICIENCY THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
HIGH. ON TUES CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE GETS DISPLACED EWD AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN. ALL THIS IN RESPONSE TO DEEP TROF DIGGING OVER THE
WRN CONUS.
LATE NEXT WEEK THEN...PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH MODELS SHOWING THE WRN CONUS TROF TAKING ON A NEG TILT AS IT
CROSSES THE ROCKIES. AS SFC LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING DPVA...MODELS PROG A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD
FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE NOTICEABLE
DIFFERENCES BTWN THE ECM AND GFS...HAVE DECIDED TO TRIMS POPS DOWN
JUST A BIT. &&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
CURRENT OBS SHOWING DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER ERN WY WITH ASSOC
BNDRY DOWN ALONG THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. INITIAL ISSUE IS GUSTY
WINDS THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
WILL REMAIN TIGHT OVER ERN NEB THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE FCST
PD...WITH SLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20KT. BY 12Z SAT
MORNING...EXPECT WARM FRONT TO BEGIN CROSSING INTO ERN NEB. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES OF
AREAL COVERAGE...HAVE DECIDED TO NOT MENTION IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
HOWEVER...MAY BE A BRIEF PD OF MVFR CIGS AT KOFK BTWN 12Z-15Z SAT
MORNING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1020 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY BRING SUNSHINE
TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS ON SUNDAY AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW. NOTICEABLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...BUT SUNSHINE AND
LOWER HUMIDITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXIST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1020 PM EDT SATURDAY...COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS AS OF LATE
EVENING...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY DROPPING
SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF NRN VT. NUDGED POP VALUES UP INTO THE
50-70% RANGE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE VT SIDE OF THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY INTO THE NRN GREENS BEFORE ACTIVITY WANES LATER
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY SLT CHC ACROSS THE NORTH AND MAINLY
DRY SOUTH. ALSO KEPT PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND OVERNIGHT PER LATEST
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LEANED TOWARD THE 00Z RAP 850/850-700 RH
PROGS WHICH APPEAR TO BE CAPTURING CURRENT TRENDS QUITE WELL.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT ON TRACK SO NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED IN
THAT REGARD. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.
PRIOR DISCUSSION...MINOR UPDATE TO REFLECT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACROSS OUR NRN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS UPPER
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC. SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
SLV/DACKS EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO CLOSING SHORTWAVE
ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL NEAR 500 MB. NEARLY ALL MESOSCALE
MODELS INCLUDING LATEST RAP INDICATES SRN QUEBEC SHOWERS WILL DROP
SOUTH IN A DECAYING FASHION INTO OUR NRN VT COUNTIES THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT OR SO WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGH AND
LOSS OF INSOLATION. BASED OFF THIS THINKING HAVE INTRODUCED 20/40
POPS ACCORDINGLY IN THESE NORTHERN LOCALES...BUT ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. MANY AREAS TO
REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WIDELY VARIED AS OF 7 PM WITH MANY RAIN-
COOLED AREAS ACROSS NRN NY ALREADY IN THE 50S AND A SPOT 52F AT
KSLK...MORE REMINISCENT OF EARLY SPRING NOT MID-JUNE. WITH AT
LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL
APPEAR ON TRACK...GENERALLY 45 TO 55. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF PATCHY
FOG AS WELL...BUT PRONOUNCED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS SHOULD FOSTER ENOUGH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ATOP THE NOCTURNAL
BOUNDARY LAYER TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE. HAVE A GREAT
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT SATURDAY...WARMING TREND TO TAKE PLACE WITH
SUNSHINE...DRY WEATHER...AND LOWER HUMIDITIES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS WILL GO AWAY EARLY. THUS EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES AT 925 MILLIBARS BEGIN TO WARM AND THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING UP INTO THE 70S. LOWER
DEW POINTS WILL ALSO HELP AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES AT 925 MB WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION. DESPITE
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...DEW POINTS
WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AND THAT COULD HELP WARM THE
TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE ALONG WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THUS
LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S...BUT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES REMAINING IN
THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS FEATURE
WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE SO NOT THINKING
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT SATURDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET FORECAST PERIOD IS
SHAPING UP FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS
GENERALLY ZONAL ON TUESDAY WITH WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
(+15C TO +16C). THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OUR WARMEST DAY WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. ABSENCE
OF FORCING FOR ASCENT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS
POINT. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A TRANSITION TO A NWLY FLOW REGIME
ALOFT FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
TROUGH PASSAGE...INCLUDED A 30-40 POP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THRU
WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL TROUGH...WITH POSSIBLE MCS MOVING THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT THIS POINT...DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS CONVECTIVE FEATURE IN THE ABSENCE
OF ANY SUPPORT FROM THE GFS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. THUS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW 80S. A DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS THEN
WORKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH PW
VALUES FALLING FROM NEAR 1-1.1" ON WEDNESDAY...DOWN TO 0.5-0.6"
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT WEATHER
AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 74-78F RANGE...BUT SKIES SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE
WAY TO VASTLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. STRATUS DECK OF
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/BTV/MPV IN NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECTING
BIGGEST IMPACT IN THE FORM OF CEILING REDUCTIONS. ANTICIPATING MAINLY
VFR AT MSS/PBG...MIX OF VFR/MVFR AT BTV...DEVELOPING MVFR AT
MPV/RUT...AND IFR GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR AT SLK. SOME 3-6SM
BR ALSO LIKELY AT SLK...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF REDUCTION
ELSEWHERE IN A COUPLE RAIN SHOWERS. CONDITIONS DRASTICALLY
IMPROVE ON SUNDAY TO VFR AT ALL SITES AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT PICK BACK UP TO 5-10 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-18 KNOTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY MPV.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. COULD SEE FOG
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE ALL TAF LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN PCPN POSSIBLE. A FEW AFTN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR TUE- THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
733 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY BRING SUNSHINE
TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS ON SUNDAY AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW. NOTICEABLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...BUT SUNSHINE AND
LOWER HUMIDITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXIST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 719 PM EDT SATURDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REFLECT A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACROSS OUR NRN COUNTIES THIS EVENING
AS UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT SLV/DACKS EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO CLOSING
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL NEAR 500 MB. NEARLY ALL
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING LATEST RAP INDICATES SRN QUEBEC SHOWERS
WILL DROP SOUTH IN A DECAYING FASHION INTO OUR NRN VT COUNTIES
THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT OR SO WITH PASSAGE OF
TROUGH AND LOSS OF INSOLATION. BASED OFF THIS THINKING HAVE
INTRODUCED 20/40 POPS ACCORDINGLY IN THESE NORTHERN LOCALES...BUT
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. MANY
AREAS TO REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WIDELY VARIED AS OF 7 PM WITH
MANY RAIN-COOLED AREAS ACROSS NRN NY ALREADY IN THE 50S AND A SPOT
52F AT KSLK...MORE REMINISCENT OF EARLY SPRING NOT MID-JUNE. WITH
AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...GENERALLY 45 TO 55. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF
PATCHY FOG AS WELL...BUT PRONOUNCED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
LOWER LEVELS SHOULD FOSTER ENOUGH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ATOP THE
NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE. HAVE A
GREAT EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT SATURDAY...WARMING TREND TO TAKE PLACE WITH
SUNSHINE...DRY WEATHER...AND LOWER HUMIDITIES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS WILL GO AWAY EARLY. THUS EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES AT 925 MILLIBARS BEGIN TO WARM AND THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING UP INTO THE 70S. LOWER
DEW POINTS WILL ALSO HELP AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES AT 925 MB WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION. DESPITE
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...DEW POINTS
WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AND THAT COULD HELP WARM THE
TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE ALONG WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THUS
LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S...BUT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES REMAINING IN
THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS FEATURE
WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE SO NOT THINKING
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT SATURDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET FORECAST PERIOD IS
SHAPING UP FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS
GENERALLY ZONAL ON TUESDAY WITH WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
(+15C TO +16C). THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OUR WARMEST DAY WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. ABSENCE
OF FORCING FOR ASCENT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS
POINT. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A TRANSITION TO A NWLY FLOW REGIME
ALOFT FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
TROUGH PASSAGE...INCLUDED A 30-40 POP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THRU
WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL TROUGH...WITH POSSIBLE MCS MOVING THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT THIS POINT...DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS CONVECTIVE FEATURE IN THE ABSENCE
OF ANY SUPPORT FROM THE GFS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. THUS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW 80S. A DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS THEN
WORKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH PW
VALUES FALLING FROM NEAR 1-1.1" ON WEDNESDAY...DOWN TO 0.5-0.6"
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT WEATHER
AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 74-78F RANGE...BUT SKIES SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE
WAY TO VASTLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. STRATUS DECK OF
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/BTV/MPV IN NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECTING
BIGGEST IMPACT IN THE FORM OF CEILING REDUCTIONS. ANTICIPATING MAINLY
VFR AT MSS/PBG...MIX OF VFR/MVFR AT BTV...DEVELOPING MVFR AT
MPV/RUT...AND IFR GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR AT SLK. SOME 3-6SM
BR ALSO LIKELY AT SLK...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF REDUCTION
ELSEWHERE IN A COUPLE RAIN SHOWERS. CONDITIONS DRASTICALLY
IMPROVE ON SUNDAY TO VFR AT ALL SITES AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT PICK BACK UP TO 5-10 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-18 KNOTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY MPV.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. COULD SEE FOG
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE ALL TAF LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN PCPN POSSIBLE. A FEW AFTN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR TUE- THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
719 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY BRING SUNSHINE
TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS ON SUNDAY AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW. NOTICEABLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...BUT SUNSHINE AND
LOWER HUMIDITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXIST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 719 PM EDT SATURDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REFLECT A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACROSS OUR NRN COUNTIES THIS EVENING
AS UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT SLV/DACKS EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO CLOSING
SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL NEAR 500 MB. NEARLY ALL
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING LATEST RAP INDICATES SRN QUEBEC SHOWERS
WILL DROP SOUTH IN A DECAYING FASHION INTO OUR NRN VT COUNTIES
THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT OR SO WITH PASSAGE OF
TROUGH AND LOSS OF INSOLATION. BASED OFF THIS THINKING HAVE
INTRODUCED 20/40 POPS ACCORDINGLY IN THESE NORTHERN LOCALES...BUT
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. MANY
AREAS TO REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WIDELY VARIED AS OF 7 PM WITH
MANY RAIN-COOLED AREAS ACROSS NRN NY ALREADY IN THE 50S AND A SPOT
52F AT KSLK...MORE REMINISCENT OF EARLY SPRING NOT MID-JUNE. WITH
AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS
STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...GENERALLY 45 TO 55. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF
PATCHY FOG AS WELL...BUT PRONOUNCED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
LOWER LEVELS SHOULD FOSTER ENOUGH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ATOP THE
NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE. HAVE A
GREAT EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT SATURDAY...WARMING TREND TO TAKE PLACE WITH
SUNSHINE...DRY WEATHER...AND LOWER HUMIDITIES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS WILL GO AWAY EARLY. THUS EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES AT 925 MILLIBARS BEGIN TO WARM AND THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING UP INTO THE 70S. LOWER
DEW POINTS WILL ALSO HELP AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES AT 925 MB WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION. DESPITE
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...DEW POINTS
WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AND THAT COULD HELP WARM THE
TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE ALONG WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THUS
LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S...BUT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES REMAINING IN
THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS FEATURE
WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE SO NOT THINKING
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT SATURDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET FORECAST PERIOD IS
SHAPING UP FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS
GENERALLY ZONAL ON TUESDAY WITH WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
(+15C TO +16C). THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OUR WARMEST DAY WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. ABSENCE
OF FORCING FOR ASCENT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS
POINT. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A TRANSITION TO A NWLY FLOW REGIME
ALOFT FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
TROUGH PASSAGE...INCLUDED A 30-40 POP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THRU
WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL TROUGH...WITH POSSIBLE MCS MOVING THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT THIS POINT...DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS CONVECTIVE FEATURE IN THE ABSENCE
OF ANY SUPPORT FROM THE GFS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. THUS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW 80S. A DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS THEN
WORKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH PW
VALUES FALLING FROM NEAR 1-1.1" ON WEDNESDAY...DOWN TO 0.5-0.6"
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT WEATHER
AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 74-78F RANGE...BUT SKIES SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MAINTAINING
BKN-OVC040-050 ACROSS THE REGION. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR
ISOLD -SHRA ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT GIVEN LOW
PROBABILITY LEFT SPECIFIC MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT SLK AND MPV.
THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. GIVEN MOIST GROUND CONDITION... CHANCE OF
2-3SM BR...ESPECIALLY AT SLK LATE TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBY AND JUST A
FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SCT040-050 OVER THE HIR TRRN. WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WEST-NORTHWEST 10-15 KTS...DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS SUNDAY GENERALLY NW 5-10 KTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.
COULD SEE PATCHY FOG WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE ALL TAF
LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS. A WEAK TROUGH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN PCPN POSSIBLE. A FEW AFTN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR TUE-
THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
140 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND BRING CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1105 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF
LATE MORNING. DID TWEAK THUNDER POPS THROUGH TODAY BASED OFF
INCOMING SHOWALTER/RAP PROGS AND MASSAGED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT
ACROSS OUR NRN NY/WRN VT COUNTIES INTO THIS EVENING. NO OTHER
APPRECIABLE CHANGES NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 441 AM EDT FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY TONIGHT AND
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. EXPECTING AROUND AN INCH OF
RAINFALL FROM TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECTING CLOUDS AND
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS VERMONT EARLY SATURDAY...BUT EXPECT
CLEARING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING CLEAR
SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED FCST CHALLENGE WL BE TIMING
OF PRECIP CHCS...ESPECIALLY TWD THE MID OF NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED
WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF. LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL
FEATURE MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAKING DOWN ON MONDAY...WITH
WESTERLY FLW DEVELOPING ON TUES/WEDS...BEFORE ADDITIONAL S/W
ENERGY SHARPENS MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR THURS
INTO FRIDAY. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW ALOFT AND
PLACEMENT OF BEST MID LVL RH WL BE CHALLENGING GIVEN CHANGEABLE
MID/UPPER LVL FLW ALOFT. ON MONDAY...BEST 5H VORT SLIDES TO OUR
NW...WHILE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. STILL THE
COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING...SOME INSTABILITY WITH CAPE AROUND 1000
J/KG AND WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WL CONT TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS LATE
MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 15C SUPPORT HIGHS U70S
MTNS/NEK TO M80S WARMER VALLEYS. GIVEN QUICK MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM
AND LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...QPF WL BE LIGHT AND DURATION WL
ONLY BE 1 TO 3 HRS. WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA OF
TUES...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ANTICIPATED. NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES ON WEDS WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN SOME INSTABILITY WL BE PRESENT WITH
CAPES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG AND FAVORABLE ULVL SUPPORT
ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT 5H VORT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. WL
MENTION CHC POPS ON WEDS WITH TEMPS BACK INTO THE U70S TO LOWER
80S. DRIER NW FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY...WITH SOME
LLVL CAA...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN 5-7C. THIS WL SUPPORT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE
40S COLDER VALLEYS TO M50S CPV/SLV.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH MOISTURE
LADEN AIR MASS WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. HIR TRRN WILL
GENERALLY BE OBSCD AND MVFR CEILINGS -- WITH BRIEF INTERVALS OF
IFR CIGS/VSBY -- WILL PREVAIL. LINE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT ITSELF (ACROSS WRN NY AT
1730Z)...WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE REGION 00-04Z. CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THEY TRACK EAST...THOUGH
CAN/T RULE OUT A CHANCE OF THUNDER AT MSS/SLK 00-04Z.
THEREAFTER...LOOKING AT GENERALLY LOW OVERCAST CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED IFR AT RUT/SLK/MPV
04-13Z AND TRRN OBSCD. SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...GENERALLY BKN030-040 AFTER 14Z. WINDS GENERALLY S-SE
UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE EVENING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT WEST
OVERNIGHT. WINDS W-NW 5-10 KTS AFTER 14Z SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AFTN WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER. MAINLY VFR SAT AFTN
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE PATCHY FOG 06-12Z SUNDAY AT SLK AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
ALL TAF LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN PCPN POSSIBLE. GENERALLY VFR TUE-WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 900 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS SHOWING
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS HAVE FALLEN IN THE WATCH AREA OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH SHARP RISES NOTED ON SEVERAL STREAMS AND
RIVERS. ADDITIONAL LARGE SLUG OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE WATCH AREA TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE (PWATS TO 1.8
IN) AND THEN AGAIN BY THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH/PASSAGE OF SFC
FRONT DURING WHICH SOME HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY OCCUR.
LATEST RAP PROGS SHOWING BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA WILL AVERAGE 0.75 TO
1.5 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE SHARP RISES ON SOME
STREAMS AND RIVERS...SOME OF WHICH MAY REACH BANKFULL OR MINOR
FLOOD. THE AUSABLE WATERSHED IS ONE SUCH EXAMPLE. REST OF FORECAST
AREA TO ALSO SEE STEADIER RAINFALL...BUT STREAMS/RIVERS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 441 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN HAS BEEN CANCELLED...AS WINDS HAVE LOWERED BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FEET. EXPECTING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT. VISIBILITY OCCASIONALLY LOWERING TO 3 TO 5 MILES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NYZ028-030-031-034-
035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...BANACOS
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1106 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND BRING CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1105 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF
LATE MORNING. DID TWEAK THUNDER POPS THROUGH TODAY BASED OFF
INCOMING SHOWALTER/RAP PROGS AND MASSAGED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT
ACROSS OUR NRN NY/WRN VT COUNTIES INTO THIS EVENING. NO OTHER
APPRECIABLE CHANGES NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 441 AM EDT FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY TONIGHT AND
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. EXPECTING AROUND AN INCH OF
RAINFALL FROM TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECTING CLOUDS AND
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS VERMONT EARLY SATURDAY...BUT EXPECT
CLEARING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING CLEAR
SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED FCST CHALLENGE WL BE TIMING
OF PRECIP CHCS...ESPECIALLY TWD THE MID OF NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED
WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF. LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL
FEATURE MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAKING DOWN ON MONDAY...WITH
WESTERLY FLW DEVELOPING ON TUES/WEDS...BEFORE ADDITIONAL S/W
ENERGY SHARPENS MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR THURS
INTO FRIDAY. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW ALOFT AND
PLACEMENT OF BEST MID LVL RH WL BE CHALLENGING GIVEN CHANGEABLE
MID/UPPER LVL FLW ALOFT. ON MONDAY...BEST 5H VORT SLIDES TO OUR
NW...WHILE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. STILL THE
COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING...SOME INSTABILITY WITH CAPE AROUND 1000
J/KG AND WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WL CONT TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS LATE
MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 15C SUPPORT HIGHS U70S
MTNS/NEK TO M80S WARMER VALLEYS. GIVEN QUICK MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM
AND LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...QPF WL BE LIGHT AND DURATION WL
ONLY BE 1 TO 3 HRS. WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA OF
TUES...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ANTICIPATED. NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES ON WEDS WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN SOME INSTABILITY WL BE PRESENT WITH
CAPES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG AND FAVORABLE ULVL SUPPORT
ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT 5H VORT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. WL
MENTION CHC POPS ON WEDS WITH TEMPS BACK INTO THE U70S TO LOWER
80S. DRIER NW FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY...WITH SOME
LLVL CAA...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN 5-7C. THIS WL SUPPORT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE
40S COLDER VALLEYS TO M50S CPV/SLV.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...DIFFICULT AVIATION FCST WITH REGARDS TO
CIGS/VIS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP FLW OF MOISTURE ACRS OUR TAF SITES.
CRNT RADAR SHOWS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT
BTV/PBG AND MVFR CIGS AT SLK/MSS/RUT AND IFR CIGS AT MPV. BANDS OF
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT TODAY WL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL VIS
BTWN 1-3SM BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS. SOUTHEAST FLW SHOULD SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND TO THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY
BTWN 22Z-04Z THIS AFTN/EVENING. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER WL BE POSSIBLE WITH BOUNDARY...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF VIS BTWN 1-2SM. AS WIND SHIFT TO THE SW THIS
EVENING...EXPECT CIGS TO LWR WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK BY 04Z
THIS EVENING. AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE
AFT 06Z ACRS ALL OUR TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER WL SHIFT EAST OF OUR TAFS SITES BY 12Z
SATURDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG/BR AT SLK/MSS/MPV AROUND 12Z SAT. SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH CLR SKIES AND CALM WINDS AND
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS...AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH
IFR/LIFR WL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
SLK/MPV. VFR WITH HIGH PRES PREVAILS SUNDAY MORNING THRU
MONDAY...WITH INCREASE CHCS FOR AFTN SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY AND
TUES AFTNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 900 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS SHOWING
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS HAVE FALLEN IN THE WATCH AREA OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH SHARP RISES NOTED ON SEVERAL STREAMS AND
RIVERS. ADDITIONAL LARGE SLUG OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE WATCH AREA TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE (PWATS TO 1.8
IN) AND THEN AGAIN BY THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH/PASSAGE OF SFC
FRONT DURING WHICH SOME HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY OCCUR.
LATEST RAP PROGS SHOWING BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA WILL AVERAGE 0.75 TO
1.5 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE SHARP RISES ON SOME
STREAMS AND RIVERS...SOME OF WHICH MAY REACH BANKFULL OR MINOR
FLOOD. THE AUSABLE WATERSHED IS ONE SUCH EXAMPLE. REST OF FORECAST
AREA TO ALSO SEE STEADIER RAINFALL...BUT STREAMS/RIVERS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 441 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN HAS BEEN CANCELLED...AS WINDS HAVE LOWERED BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FEET. EXPECTING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT. VISIBILITY OCCASIONALLY LOWERING TO 3 TO 5 MILES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NYZ028-030-031-034-
035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
900 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND BRING CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 900 AM EDT FRIDAY...THIS NEAR TERM UPDATE REFLECTS LATEST
HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION BELOW AND INCORPORATES NEWLY ISSUED FLOOD
WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. REST OF FORECAST
UNCHANGED. PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 441 AM EDT FRIDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP
SHOWING PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING NORTHWARD FROM
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME.
HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RANGE FROM 1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES TODAY...SO HAVE ADDED ENHANCED
WORDING FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO ADDED
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWALTER
INDEX ARE AROUND OR LIGHT BELOW ZERO...SO SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE. GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A
RISE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 441 AM EDT FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY TONIGHT AND
HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. EXPECTING AROUND AN INCH OF
RAINFALL FROM TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECTING CLOUDS AND
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS VERMONT EARLY SATURDAY...BUT EXPECT
CLEARING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECTING CLEAR
SKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED FCST CHALLENGE WL BE TIMING
OF PRECIP CHCS...ESPECIALLY TWD THE MID OF NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED
WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF. LARGE SCALE PATTERN WL
FEATURE MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAKING DOWN ON MONDAY...WITH
WESTERLY FLW DEVELOPING ON TUES/WEDS...BEFORE ADDITIONAL S/W
ENERGY SHARPENS MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE NE CONUS FOR THURS
INTO FRIDAY. TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW ALOFT AND
PLACEMENT OF BEST MID LVL RH WL BE CHALLENGING GIVEN CHANGEABLE
MID/UPPER LVL FLW ALOFT. ON MONDAY...BEST 5H VORT SLIDES TO OUR
NW...WHILE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC. STILL THE
COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING...SOME INSTABILITY WITH CAPE AROUND 1000
J/KG AND WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WL CONT TO MENTION LOW CHC POPS LATE
MONDAY AFTN/EVENING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 15C SUPPORT HIGHS U70S
MTNS/NEK TO M80S WARMER VALLEYS. GIVEN QUICK MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM
AND LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...QPF WL BE LIGHT AND DURATION WL
ONLY BE 1 TO 3 HRS. WEAK SFC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA OF
TUES...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ANTICIPATED. NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES ON WEDS WITH ANOTHER CHC FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN SOME INSTABILITY WL BE PRESENT WITH
CAPES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG AND FAVORABLE ULVL SUPPORT
ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT 5H VORT AND DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF. WL
MENTION CHC POPS ON WEDS WITH TEMPS BACK INTO THE U70S TO LOWER
80S. DRIER NW FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS FOR THURS INTO FRIDAY...WITH SOME
LLVL CAA...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS DROP BTWN 5-7C. THIS WL SUPPORT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE
40S COLDER VALLEYS TO M50S CPV/SLV.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...DIFFICULT AVIATION FCST WITH REGARDS TO
CIGS/VIS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP FLW OF MOISTURE ACRS OUR TAF SITES.
CRNT RADAR SHOWS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT
BTV/PBG AND MVFR CIGS AT SLK/MSS/RUT AND IFR CIGS AT MPV. BANDS OF
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT TODAY WL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL VIS
BTWN 1-3SM BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS. SOUTHEAST FLW SHOULD SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND TO THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY
BTWN 22Z-04Z THIS AFTN/EVENING. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER WL BE POSSIBLE WITH BOUNDARY...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF VIS BTWN 1-2SM. AS WIND SHIFT TO THE SW THIS
EVENING...EXPECT CIGS TO LWR WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK BY 04Z
THIS EVENING. AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE
AFT 06Z ACRS ALL OUR TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER WL SHIFT EAST OF OUR TAFS SITES BY 12Z
SATURDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE IN
FOG/BR AT SLK/MSS/MPV AROUND 12Z SAT. SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH CLR SKIES AND CALM WINDS AND
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS...AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH
IFR/LIFR WL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
SLK/MPV. VFR WITH HIGH PRES PREVAILS SUNDAY MORNING THRU
MONDAY...WITH INCREASE CHCS FOR AFTN SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY AND
TUES AFTNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 900 AM EDT FRIDAY...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS SHOWING
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS HAVE FALLEN IN THE WATCH AREA OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH SHARP RISES NOTED ON SEVERAL STREAMS AND
RIVERS. ADDITIONAL LARGE SLUG OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE WATCH AREA TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE (PWATS TO 1.8
IN) AND THEN AGAIN BY THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH/PASSAGE OF SFC
FRONT DURING WHICH SOME HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY OCCUR.
LATEST RAP PROGS SHOWING BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA WILL AVERAGE 0.75 TO
1.5 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH WILL CAUSE SHARP RISES ON SOME
STREAMS AND RIVERS...SOME OF WHICH MAY REACH BANKFULL OR MINOR
FLOOD. THE AUSABLE WATERSHED IS ONE SUCH EXAMPLE. REST OF FORECAST
AREA TO ALSO SEE STEADIER RAINFALL...BUT STREAMS/RIVERS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL WITHIN THEIR BANKS.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 441 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN HAS BEEN CANCELLED...AS WINDS HAVE LOWERED BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 1 TO 2 FEET. EXPECTING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT. VISIBILITY OCCASIONALLY LOWERING TO 3 TO 5 MILES.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NYZ028-030-031-034-
035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...JMG/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1235 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT
TO OUR EAST AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...
CURRENT FORECAST FOCUSING THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER ERN NC STILL
LOOKS GOOD. TWO WEAK VORTICITY LOBES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MID-
UPPER TROUGH COVERING ERN NOAM WILL BE OUR PRIMARY CONVECTIVE FOCII
FOR TODAY. THE LEADING WAVE NOW OVER ERN NC/VA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD TODAY... WHILE THE SECOND WAVE TRAILING CLOSELY BEHIND NOW
ENTERING THE SRN APPALACHIANS WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NC LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT... LIKELY WORKING WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY TO PROMPT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. PW VALUES REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
(HIGHER EAST THAN WEST) BUT NEARLY A HALF INCH LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY... AND MODELS FORECAST CONTINUED WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR (15-
20 KTS). INSTABILITY IS ALSO LESS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS... WITH
MLCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. LIKELY
COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE... HOWEVER THE LATEST
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS INCLUDING THE NSSL WRF AND HRRR DEPICT
ENOUGH STORM COVERAGE TO JUSTIFY POPS OF 40% WEST TO NEAR 60% EAST.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY PULSE STORMS WILL BE
DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS... GIVEN THE SLIGHT INVERTED-V SIGNATURE ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RAP PREDICTIONS OF D-CAPE RISING ABOVE 800
J/KG BY AFTERNOON... WITH A BIT LESSER THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN (LOWER
PW) AND EVEN LOWER THREAT OF LARGE HAIL (MINIMAL -10C TO -30C CAPE
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS). STILL EXPECT HIGHS OF 84-90 BASED ON PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING (TRENDING TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVERAGE) AND NEAR-NORMAL MORNING
THICKNESSES. -GIH
305 AM DISCUSSION: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING
THE AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...A VERY MOIST
AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...WITH PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 1.4-
1.7 INCHES (HIGHEST ACROSS THE EAST). ALL OF THIS...ALONG WITH THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH...WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE EAST. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE ON THE WEAK
SIDE...WITH MLCAPE NEAR OR BELOW 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...BOTH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...KEEPING THE
SEVERE THREAT LIMITED. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS
PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA...IN ADDITION TO THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE NC/SC BORDER. THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIR MASS TO FILTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR SATURDAY...EXCEPT MAYBE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED FRONT. HIGH TEMPS WILL
STILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...BUT SHOULD NOT FEEL AS OPPRESSIVE
GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THIS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...
SUN-SUN NIGHT: FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD...STRENGTHEN
(INTO THE 318-320 DM RANGE AT H7)...AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND
CAPPING INVERSION DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSION OF THE
PRECEDING FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE SAVANNAH BASIN...SUGGEST
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RAH CWFA. INDEED...FCST
BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT ZERO (OR NEARLY SO) CAPE IN CENTRAL NC...AND
ONLY SHALLOW/WEAK CAPE OF PERHAPS 100-200 J/KG IN A SHALLOW LAYER
BETWEEN THE LCL AND THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 8000
FT AT CLT SUN AFT - LIKELY INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE
THAN A FEW RELATIVELY DEEPER CU EVEN DOWN THERE. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN MID-UPPER 80S AND MID-UPPER 60S.
MON-THU: THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT/REDEVELOP
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE GULF COAST STATES-TN VALLEY...WITH A
WEAKNESS/SHEAR AXIS TRAPPED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MEANWHILE...
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SE
CANADA...BUT LARGER THAN AVG MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SPREAD LENDS LOW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO WHERE/HOW FAR SOUTHWARD THE ASSOCIATED
WESTERLIES AND FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR POSSIBLE REMNANT MCS/MCV ACTION
FROM UPSTREAM. GIVEN THE INITIAL STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...AND THE
TIME OF YEAR...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE FARTHER NORTH...NON-GFS
SOLUTIONS DEPICTED BY THE EC/CMC/UKMET. AS SUCH...THE PATTERN THIS
PERIOD SHOULD BE A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ONE...CHARACTERIZED BY BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
STORMS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ON THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND/OR SEA BREEZE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HOTTER 0- INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S - IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG NEARBY RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POCKET OF
H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE 18-21 C RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM THURSDAY...
THIS MORNING`S LOW CLOUD BASES HAVE RISEN TO 2500-3500 FT... MAINLY
SCATTERED... WITH MID CLOUDS ABOVE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THE REST OF TODAY... ALTHOUGH BRIEF SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS AND WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SCATTERED (INT/GSO/RDU) TO NUMEROUS
(RWI/FAY) STORMS... PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z. A SURFACE FRONT
WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT... WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT FROM NW TO SE... SO EXPECT SHOWER/STORM
PROBABILITIES TO DWINDLE THIS EVENING... FIRST AT INT/GSO THEN
RDU/RWI AND FINALLY FAY OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SAT WITH ONLY FAY POTENTIALLY SEEING AN ISOLATED
STORM. AWAY FROM CONVECTION... SURFACE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE LIGHT
(UNDER 10 KTS) FROM THE SW OR W THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO NW
TONIGHT... THEN TO N AND NE SAT.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SAT: VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO HOLD THROUGH MON...
WITH FEW CLOUDS AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
INCREASING SURFACE TEMPS AND SLOWLY DEEPENING MOISTURE WITH A SLOW
BREAKDOWN OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING IMPROVING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUE/WED WITH POSSIBLE SUB-VFR STRATUS/FOG EACH
MORNING. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/KRD
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
950 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL SHIFT
TO OUR EAST AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM FRIDAY...
CURRENT FORECAST FOCUSING THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER ERN NC STILL
LOOKS GOOD. TWO WEAK VORTICITY LOBES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MID-
UPPER TROUGH COVERING ERN NOAM WILL BE OUR PRIMARY CONVECTIVE FOCII
FOR TODAY. THE LEADING WAVE NOW OVER ERN NC/VA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD TODAY... WHILE THE SECOND WAVE TRAILING CLOSELY BEHIND NOW
ENTERING THE SRN APPALACHIANS WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NC LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT... LIKELY WORKING WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY TO PROMPT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. PW VALUES REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
(HIGHER EAST THAN WEST) BUT NEARLY A HALF INCH LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY... AND MODELS FORECAST CONTINUED WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR (15-
20 KTS). INSTABILITY IS ALSO LESS THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS... WITH
MLCAPE PEAKING AT 1000-2000 J/KG IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. LIKELY
COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE... HOWEVER THE LATEST
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS INCLUDING THE NSSL WRF AND HRRR DEPICT
ENOUGH STORM COVERAGE TO JUSTIFY POPS OF 40% WEST TO NEAR 60% EAST.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY PULSE STORMS WILL BE
DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS... GIVEN THE SLIGHT INVERTED-V SIGNATURE ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RAP PREDICTIONS OF D-CAPE RISING ABOVE 800
J/KG BY AFTERNOON... WITH A BIT LESSER THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN (LOWER
PW) AND EVEN LOWER THREAT OF LARGE HAIL (MINIMAL -10C TO -30C CAPE
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS). STILL EXPECT HIGHS OF 84-90 BASED ON PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING (TRENDING TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVERAGE) AND NEAR-NORMAL MORNING
THICKNESSES. -GIH
305 AM DISCUSSION: THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING
THE AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...A VERY MOIST
AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...WITH PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 1.4-
1.7 INCHES (HIGHEST ACROSS THE EAST). ALL OF THIS...ALONG WITH THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH...WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE EAST. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE ON THE WEAK
SIDE...WITH MLCAPE NEAR OR BELOW 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...BOTH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...KEEPING THE
SEVERE THREAT LIMITED. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS
PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA...IN ADDITION TO THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE NC/SC BORDER. THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIR MASS TO FILTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR SATURDAY...EXCEPT MAYBE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED FRONT. HIGH TEMPS WILL
STILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...BUT SHOULD NOT FEEL AS OPPRESSIVE
GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THIS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...GENERALLY LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...
SUN-SUN NIGHT: FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD...STRENGTHEN
(INTO THE 318-320 DM RANGE AT H7)...AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND
CAPPING INVERSION DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSION OF THE
PRECEDING FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE SAVANNAH BASIN...SUGGEST
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RAH CWFA. INDEED...FCST
BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT ZERO (OR NEARLY SO) CAPE IN CENTRAL NC...AND
ONLY SHALLOW/WEAK CAPE OF PERHAPS 100-200 J/KG IN A SHALLOW LAYER
BETWEEN THE LCL AND THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 8000
FT AT CLT SUN AFT - LIKELY INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE
THAN A FEW RELATIVELY DEEPER CU EVEN DOWN THERE. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN MID-UPPER 80S AND MID-UPPER 60S.
MON-THU: THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT/REDEVELOP
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE GULF COAST STATES-TN VALLEY...WITH A
WEAKNESS/SHEAR AXIS TRAPPED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MEANWHILE...
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SE
CANADA...BUT LARGER THAN AVG MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SPREAD LENDS LOW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO WHERE/HOW FAR SOUTHWARD THE ASSOCIATED
WESTERLIES AND FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR POSSIBLE REMNANT MCS/MCV ACTION
FROM UPSTREAM. GIVEN THE INITIAL STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...AND THE
TIME OF YEAR...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE FARTHER NORTH...NON-GFS
SOLUTIONS DEPICTED BY THE EC/CMC/UKMET. AS SUCH...THE PATTERN THIS
PERIOD SHOULD BE A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ONE...CHARACTERIZED BY BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
STORMS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ON THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND/OR SEA BREEZE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HOTTER 0- INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S - IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONG NEARBY RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POCKET OF
H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE 18-21 C RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM THURSDAY...
ANY LINGERING FOG/STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT/LIFT OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 13-15Z. THEN SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA....WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. IF A STORM IMPACTS A TERMINAL...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT
OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/LOCATION. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT OVERALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN 00Z-12Z...RESULTING
IN A WIND SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
OUTLOOK...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT. THERE COULD BE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA (KFAY) OVER THE WEEKEND (MAINLY SATURDAY) DUE TO
THE CLOSER PROXIMITY OF THE STALLED FRONT...BUT ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A RETURN TO MORE SUMMERTIME DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/KRD
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...KRD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
655 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BRING ONE LAST DAY OF APPRECIABLE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. A GRADUAL RETURN OF MOISTURE AND THUS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL S/W TROF WILL LIFT NE THIS
MORNING...TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT S/W TROF WILL APPROACH THE FA FROM THE NW TONIGHT AS THE
LONGWAVE TROF ITSELF PROGRESSES TO THE EAST COAST LATER TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. DYNAMICS ALOFT FROM THESE S/W TROFS WILL AID
CONVECTION TODAY THRU TONIGHT. LIFT WILL ALSO BE PRODUCED BY THE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS TODAY...AND REACHING THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE FA COULD EXPERIENCE
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W TROF
FROM MIDDAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AND COULD HAVE A NEGATIVE
EFFECT ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTN DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THIS NVA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVBL...THERE4 OK IN THAT
DEPARTMENT. OVERALL...HAVE GONE WITH A 40-50 POPS FOR CONVECTION
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THUS BANKING ON THE SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AS A NON-ISSUE. ON A SIDE NOTE...WENT EVEN HIER THAN SREF
POPS. FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS...STAYED ON THE HIER SIDE OF AVBL
MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...A RATHER LATE SEASON COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. IT WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND ACCOMPANIED BY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN WITH THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD REALLY CURTAIL PRECIP CHANCES INLAND BUT SOME
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ALONG THE COAST LONG ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER DAY OF
POPS IN THE 30S. TEMPERATURE-WISE ITS A PRETTY TYPICAL JUNE COOL`
FRONT IN THAT THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE COOLING AND EVEN THE SURFACE
DEWPOINT DECREASE HAS BEEN BACKED OFF IN GUIDANCE. THE FRONT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH IN A RAPIDLY WEAKENING STATE AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. PRONOUNCED DRYING DROPS PW VALUES TO
AROUND AN INCH BY DAYS END MAKING FOR A DRY AND SUNNY FATHER`S
DAY. EXCEPTION MAY BE FARTHER SOUTHERN ZONES ESP ACCORDING TO
GFS...WHERE MOS NUMBERS SHOWING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SEEMS WORST
CASE GIVEN THE SIMILARLY DRY FCST SOUNDINGS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MOISTURE RETURN TRIES TO GET UNDERWAY ON MONDAY
BUT LARGELY LOOKS TOO WEAK TO YIELD MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES SAVE FOR
PERHAPS SCHC...SRN ZONES MAY BE FAVORED BUT DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE
WITH SUCH DETAIL THAT FAR OUT WITH SUCH A LOW PROB IN THE FIRST
PLACE. TUESDAY CONTINUES TO FIND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUT ALSO A SECONDARY AND WEAKER HIGH CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. PRECLUDING MUCH MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO THURSDAY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SEASONABLE RAINFALL
DISTRIBUTION/COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE RADAR HAS QUIETED EARLY THIS FRI MORNING AS THE
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAS DISSIPATED. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS TO DOMINATE SKY CONDITIONS AND SW-WSW WINDS STAYING
ACTIVE...AROUND 5 KTS...AND SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG THREAT EARLY THIS
AM. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AS
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS KEEP US
DRY INTO THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS FOR ALL
TERMS STARTING EARLY FRI AFTN BETWEEN 17Z-18Z. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED A
TEMPO GROUPING FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS ALL TERMS WITH LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE AT THE COAST...AND THE SFC TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE INLAND. VFR FOR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT LOCALIZED
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM TSTMS. SW TO WSW WINDS AOB 10
KTS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT BECOMING S-SSW 10-15G19KTS FOLLOWING THE
INLAND PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON
SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ONLY DIURNALLY
INDUCED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM FRIDAY...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT ACROSS
THE ILM WATERS THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WILL BOTH
SUPPORT SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL AFTN AND EVENING GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT. DURING THE PRE-DAWN SATURDAY HOURS...THE SFC COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD...AND REACH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BY
DAYBREAK SAT. THIS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A VEERING
WIND DIRECTION TONIGHT...FROM SW-W-NW BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SFC
PG WILL RELAX...RESULTING WITH LOWERING WIND SPEEDS TO AROUND 10
KT BY DAYBREAK SAT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE A FUNCTION OF LOCALLY
PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 4 TO 6 SECOND DOMINANT
PERIODS. LOOKING AT MAINLY 2 TO 4 FOOT SIGNIFICANT SEAS AND UP TO
5 FT ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...AREA GETS SPLIT NORTH TO SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY BY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE FRONT SAGS WILL DETERMINE HOW MANY OF THE ZONES SEE A NORTHERLY
WIND COMPONENT MOVE IN. NORTHERN ZONES ARE MOST FAVORED TO SEE NE
WINDS WHILE SRN ZONES MAY STAY S/SW MOST OF THE DAY. AS USUAL WITH A
FRONT IN THE AREA THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND SEAS SETTLING TO 2 TO 3
FT RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. FRONT GETS SOUTH OF ALL ZONES AND
BASICALLY FALLS APART ON SUNDAY LEAVING BEHIND A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND
DUE TO WEAK HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY BENIGN ON MONDAY AS WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE GETTING ESTABLISHED OFF CAPE
HATTERAS FOR A VERY WEAK EASTERLY FLOW LOCALLY. LIGHT WINDS AND NO
SWELL ENERGY MEANS MINIMAL SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS. HIGH MOVES FURTHER
OFF THE COAST AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ON TUESDAY
RETURNING A MORE TYPICAL SWRLY WIND DIRECTION. SPEEDS STAY LIGHTER
THAN THE NORM HOWEVER DUE TO BOTH FEATURES BEING QUITE WEAK.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...RJD/MBB
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
510 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BRING ONE LAST DAY OF APPRECIABLE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. A GRADUAL RETURN OF MOISTURE AND THUS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED ON TUESDSAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL S/W TROF WILL LIFT NE THIS
MORNING TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT S/W TROF WILL APPROACH THE FA FROM THE NW TONIGHT AS THE
LONGWAVE TROF ALOFT PROGRESSES TO THE EAST COAST LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. DYNAMICS ALOFT FROM THESE S/W TROFS WILL AID CONVECTION
TODAY THRU TONIGHT. LIFT WILL ALSO BE PRODUCED BY THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS TODAY...REACHING THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE FA COULD EXPERIENCE BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W TROF MIDDAY INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...AND COULD HAVE A NEGATIVE EFFECT ON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTN DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE NVA. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AVBL...OK IN THAT DEPARTMENT. OVERALL...HAVE GONE WITH A
GOOD CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THUS
BANKING ON THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS A NON-ISSUE. ON A SIDE
NOTE...WENT EVEN HIER THAN SREF POPS. FOR MAX AND MIN
TEMPS...STAYED ON THE HIER SIDE OF AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...A RATHER LATE SEASON COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. IT WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND ACCOMPANIED BY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN WITH THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD REALLY CURTAIL PRECIP CHANCES INLAND BUT SOME
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ALONG THE COAST LONG ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER DAY OF
POPS IN THE 30S. TEMPERATURE-WISE ITS A PRETTY TYPICAL JUNE COOL`
FRONT IN THAT THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE COOLING AND EVEN THE SURFACE
DEWPOINT DECREASE HAS BEEN BACKED OFF IN GUIDANCE. THE FRONT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH IN A RAPIDLY WEAKENING STATE AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. PRONOUNCED DRYING DROPS PW VALUES TO
AROUND AN INCH BY DAYS END MAKING FOR A DRY AND SUNNY FATHER`S
DAY. EXCEPTION MAY BE FARTHER SOUTHERN ZONES ESP ACCORDING TO
GFS...WHERE MOS NUMBERS SHOWING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SEEMS WORST
CASE GIVEN THE SIMILARLY DRY FCST SOUNDINGS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MOISTURE RETURN TRIES TO GET UNDERWAY ON MONDAY
BUT LARGELY LOOKS TOO WEAK TO YIELD MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES SAVE FOR
PERHAPS SCHC...SRN ZONES MAY BE FAVORED BUT DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE
WITH SUCH DETAIL THAT FAR OUT WITH SUCH A LOW PROB IN THE FIRST
PLACE. TUESDAY CONTINUES TO FIND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUT ALSO A SECONDARY AND WEAKER HIGH CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. PRECLUDING MUCH MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO THURSDAY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SEASONABLE RAINFALL
DISTRIBUTION/COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE RADAR HAS QUIETED EARLY THIS FRI MORNING AS THE
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAS DISSIPATED. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS TO DOMINATE SKY CONDITIONS AND SW-WSW WINDS STAYING
ACTIVE...AROUND 5 KTS...AND SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG THREAT EARLY THIS
AM. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AS
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS KEEP US
DRY INTO THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS FOR ALL
TERMS STARTING EARLY FRI AFTN BETWEEN 17Z-18Z. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED A
TEMPO GROUPING FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS ALL TERMS WITH LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE AT THE COAST...AND THE SFC TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE INLAND. VFR FOR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT LOCALIZED
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM TSTMS. SW TO WSW WINDS AOB 10
KTS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT BECOMING S-SSW 10-15G19KTS FOLLOWING THE
INLAND PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON
SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ONLY DIURNALLY
INDUCED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT
ACROSS THE ILM WATERS THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WILL
BOTH SUPPORT SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. DURING
THE PRE-DAWN SATURDAY HOURS...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD...AND REACH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK SAT.
THIS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A VEERING WIND
DIRECTION...FROM SW-W-NW BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SFC PG WILL
RELAX...RESULTING WITH LOWERING WIND SPEEDS TO AROUND 10 KT BY
DAYBREAK SAT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE A FUNCTION OF LOCALLY
PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 4 TO 6 SECOND DOMINANT
PERIODS. LOOKING AT MAINLY 2 TO 4 FOOT SIGNIFICANT SEAS AND
UP TO 5 FT ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...AREA GETS SPLIT NORTH TO SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY BY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE FRONT SAGS WILL DETERMINE HOW MANY OF THE ZONES SEE A NORTHERLY
WIND COMPONENT MOVE IN. NORTHERN ZONES ARE MOST FAVORED TO SEE NE
WINDS WHILE SRN ZONES MAY STAY S/SW MOST OF THE DAY. AS USUAL WITH A
FRONT IN THE AREA THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND SEAS SETTLING TO 2 TO 3
FT RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. FRONT GETS SOUTH OF ALL ZONES AND
BASICALLY FALLS APART ON SUNDAY LEAVING BEHIND A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND
DUE TO WEAK HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY BENIGN ON MONDAY AS WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE GETTING ESTABLISHED OFF CAPE
HATTERAS FOR A VERY WEAK EASTERLY FLOW LOCALLY. LIGHT WINDS AND NO
SWELL ENERGY MEANS MINIMAL SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS. HIGH MOVES FURTHER
OFF THE COAST AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ON TUESDAY
RETURNING A MORE TYPICAL SWRLY WIND DIRECTION. SPEEDS STAY LIGHTER
THAN THE NORM HOWEVER DUE TO BOTH FEATURES BEING QUITE WEAK.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...RJD/MBB
AVIATION...DCH/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
500 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BRING ONE LAST DAY OF APPRECIABLE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. A GRADUAL RETURN OF MOISTURE AND THUS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED ON TUESDSAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL S/W TROF WILL LIFT NE THIS
MORNING TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT S/W TROF WILL APPROACH THE FA FROM THE NW TONIGHT AS THE
LONGWAVE TROF ALOFT PROGRESSES TO THE EAST COAST LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. DYNAMICS ALOFT FROM THESE S/W TROFS WILL AID CONVECTION
TODAY THRU TONIGHT. LIFT WILL ALSO BE PRODUCED BY THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS TODAY...REACHING THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE FA COULD EXPERIENCE BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W TROF MIDDAY INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...AND COULD HAVE A NEGATIVE EFFECT ON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTN DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE NVA. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AVBL...OK IN THAT DEPARTMENT. OVERALL...HAVE GONE WITH A
GOOD CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THUS
BANKING ON THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS A NON-ISSUE. ON A SIDE
NOTE...WENT EVEN HIER THAN SREF POPS. FOR MAX AND MIN
TEMPS...STAYED ON THE HIER SIDE OF AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...A RATHER LATE SEASON COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. IT WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND ACCOMPANIED BY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN WITH THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD REALLY CURTAIL PRECIP CHANCES INLAND BUT SOME
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ALONG THE COAST LONG ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER DAY OF
POPS IN THE 30S. TEMPERATURE-WISE ITS A PRETTY TYPICAL JUNE COOL`
FRONT IN THAT THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE COOLING AND EVEN THE SURFACE
DEWPOINT DECREASE HAS BEEN BACKED OFF IN GUIDANCE. THE FRONT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH IN A RAPIDLY WEAKENING STATE AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. PRONOUNCED DRYING DROPS PW VALUES TO
AROUND AN INCH BY DAYS END MAKING FOR A DRY AND SUNNY FATHER`S
DAY. EXCEPTION MAY BE FARTHER SOUTHERN ZONES ESP ACCORDING TO
GFS...WHERE MOS NUMBERS SHOWING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SEEMS WORST
CASE GIVEN THE SIMILARLY DRY FCST SOUNDINGS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MOISTURE RETURN TRIES TO GET UNDERWAY ON MONDAY
BUT LARGELY LOOKS TOO WEAK TO YIELD MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES SAVE FOR
PERHAPS SCHC...SRN ZONES MAY BE FAVORED BUT DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE
WITH SUCH DETAIL THAT FAR OUT WITH SUCH A LOW PROB IN THE FIRST
PLACE. TUESDAY CONTINUES TO FIND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUT ALSO A SECONDARY AND WEAKER HIGH CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. PRECLUDING MUCH MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO THURSDAY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SEASONABLE RAINFALL
DISTRIBUTION/COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE RADAR HAS QUIETED EARLY THIS FRI MORNING AS THE
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAS DISSIPATED. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS TO DOMINATE SKY CONDITIONS AND SW-WSW WINDS STAYING
ACTIVE...AROUND 5 KTS...AND SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG THREAT EARLY THIS
AM. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AS
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS KEEP US
DRY INTO THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS FOR ALL
TERMS STARTING EARLY FRI AFTN BETWEEN 17Z-18Z. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED A
TEMPO GROUPING FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS ALL TERMS WITH LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE AT THE COAST...AND THE SFC TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE INLAND. VFR FOR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT LOCALIZED
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM TSTMS. SW TO WSW WINDS AOB 10
KTS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT BECOMING S-SSW 10-15G19KTS FOLLOWING THE
INLAND PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON
SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ONLY DIURNALLY
INDUCED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM THURSDAY...SEAS 2-3 FEET WITH 3 TO 4 FEET SEAS IN THE
OUTER WATERS IN DECENT SOUTHERLY PUSH AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...SLIGHTLY LOWER NEAR SHORE. SEAS A MIX OF S WAVES 2-3
FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 7-9 SECONDS.
OUTSIDE OF TSTMS NO WIND AND SEA HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...AREA GETS SPLIT NORTH TO SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY BY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE FRONT SAGS WILL DETERMINE HOW MANY OF THE ZONES SEE A NORTHERLY
WIND COMPONENT MOVE IN. NORTHERN ZONES ARE MOST FAVORED TO SEE NE
WINDS WHILE SRN ZONES MAY STAY S/SW MOST OF THE DAY. AS USUAL WITH A
FRONT IN THE AREA THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND SEAS SETTLING TO 2 TO 3
FT RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. FRONT GETS SOUTH OF ALL ZONES AND
BASICALLY FALLS APART ON SUNDAY LEAVING BEHIND A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND
DUE TO WEAK HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY BENIGN ON MONDAY AS WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE GETTING ESTABLISHED OFF CAPE
HATTERAS FOR A VERY WEAK EASTERLY FLOW LOCALLY. LIGHT WINDS AND NO
SWELL ENERGY MEANS MINIMAL SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS. HIGH MOVES FURTHER
OFF THE COAST AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ON TUESDAY
RETURNING A MORE TYPICAL SWRLY WIND DIRECTION. SPEEDS STAY LIGHTER
THAN THE NORM HOWEVER DUE TO BOTH FEATURES BEING QUITE WEAK.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...RJD/MBB
AVIATION...DCH/BJR
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
305 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BRING ONE LAST DAY OF APPRECIABLE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. A GRADUAL RETURN OF MOISTURE AND THUS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED ON TUESDSAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM THURSDAY...SHWRS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ISOLATED
IN COVERAGE...MOVING UP IN SW FLOW IN AXIS OF MOISTURE RICH AIR AND
ENHANCED SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH H5 SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AS MAIN MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REACHING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES DIGS SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVERNIGHT BUT AS
DIURNAL HEATING CUTS OFF...EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN ON THE WEAKER
SIDE AND REMAIN MORE ISOLATED.
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UP AROUND 1.8 INCHES. LOW TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWERS 70S RIGHT ALONG THE COAST IN WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...A RATHER LATE SEASON COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. IT WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND ACCOMPANIED BY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN WITH THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD REALLY CURTAIL PRECIP CHANCES INLAND BUT SOME
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ALONG THE COAST LONG ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER DAY OF
POPS IN THE 30S. TEMPERATURE-WISE ITS A PRETTY TYPICAL JUNE `COOL`
FRONT IN THAT THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE COOLING AND EVEN THE SURFACE
DEWPOINT DECREASE HAS BEEN BACKED OFF IN GUIDANCE. THE FRONT REMAINS
TO OUR SOUTH IN A RAPIDLY WEAKENING STATE AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVERHEAD. PRONOUNCED DRYING DROPS PW VALUES TO AROUND AN INCH
BY DAYS END MAKING FOR A DRY AND SUNNY FATHER`S DAY. EXCEPTION MAY
BE FARTHER SOUTHERN ZONES ESP ACCORDING TO GFS...WHERE MOS NUMBERS
SHOWING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SEEMS WORST CASE GIVEN THE SIMILARLY DRY
FCST SOUNDINGS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MOISTURE RETURN TRIES TO GET UNDERWAY ON MONDAY
BUT LARGELY LOOKS TOO WEAK TO YIELD MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES SAVE FOR
PERHAPS SCHC...SRN ZONES MAY BE FAVORED BUT DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE
WITH SUCH DETAIL THAT FAR OUT WITH SUCH A LOW PROB IN THE FIRST
PLACE. TUESDAY CONTINUES TO FIND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUT ALSO A SECONDARY AND WEAKER HIGH CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. PRECLUDING MUCH MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO THURSDAY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SEASONABLE RAINFALL
DISTRIBUTION/COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE RADAR HAS QUIETED EARLY THIS FRI MORNING AS THE
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAS DISSIPATED. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS TO DOMINATE SKY CONDITIONS AND SW-WSW WINDS STAYING
ACTIVE...AROUND 5 KTS...AND SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG THREAT EARLY THIS
AM. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AS
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS KEEP US
DRY INTO THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS FOR ALL
TERMS STARTING EARLY FRI AFTN BETWEEN 17Z-18Z. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED A
TEMPO GROUPING FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS ALL TERMS WITH LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE AT THE COAST...AND THE SFC TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE INLAND. VFR FOR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT LOCALIZED
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM TSTMS. SW TO WSW WINDS AOB 10
KTS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT BECOMING S-SSW 10-15G19KTS FOLLOWING THE
INLAND PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON
SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ONLY DIURNALLY
INDUCED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM THURSDAY...SEAS 2-3 FEET WITH 3 TO 4 FEET SEAS IN THE
OUTER WATERS IN DECENT SOUTHERLY PUSH AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...SLIGHTLY LOWER NEAR SHORE. SEAS A MIX OF S WAVES 2-3
FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 7-9 SECONDS.
OUTSIDE OF TSTMS NO WIND AND SEA HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...AREA GETS SPLIT NORTH TO SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY BY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE FRONT SAGS WILL DETERMINE HOW MANY OF THE ZONES SEE A NORTHERLY
WIND COMPONENT MOVE IN. NORTHERN ZONES ARE MOST FAVORED TO SEE NE
WINDS WHILE SRN ZONES MAY STAY S/SW MOST OF THE DAY. AS USUAL WITH A
FRONT IN THE AREA THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND SEAS SETTLING TO 2 TO 3
FT RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. FRONT GETS SOUTH OF ALL ZONES AND
BASICALLY FALLS APART ON SUNDAY LEAVING BEHIND A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND
DUE TO WEAK HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY BENIGN ON MONDAY AS WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE GETTING ESTABLISHED OFF CAPE
HATTERAS FOR A VERY WEAK EASTERLY FLOW LOCALLY. LIGHT WINDS AND NO
SWELL ENERGY MEANS MINIMAL SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS. HIGH MOVES FURTHER
OFF THE COAST AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ON TUESDAY
RETURNING A MORE TYPICAL SWRLY WIND DIRECTION. SPEEDS STAY LIGHTER
THAN THE NORM HOWEVER DUE TO BOTH FEATURES BEING QUITE WEAK.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
155 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
HUMIDITY TO RETURN BY MIDWEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM THURSDAY...SHWRS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ISOLATED
IN COVERAGE...MOVING UP IN SW FLOW IN AXIS OF MOISTURE RICH AIR AND
ENHANCED SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH H5 SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AS MAIN MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REACHING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES DIGS SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVERNIGHT BUT AS
DIURNAL HEATING CUTS OFF...EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN ON THE WEAKER
SIDE AND REMAIN MORE ISOLATED.
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UP AROUND 1.8 INCHES. LOW TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWERS 70S RIGHT ALONG THE COAST IN WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL KICK OFF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT. WITH
CONTINUED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY AND A CONSIDERABLY
MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS...WITH PWAT VALUES BOUNCING AROUND THE 1.4 -
1.8 MARK...EXPECT DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING SEVERE GIVEN
THE LACK OF IMPRESSIVE PARAMETERS IN PLACE...BUT COULD SEE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AT TIMES AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED SHORT-LIVED
FLOODING IN THE MOST EXTREME CASE. ON SATURDAY...OVERALL EXPECT
THINGS TO QUIET DOWN AS THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA...ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO INFILTRATE INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN A SLIGHT DISCREPANCY IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE TWO
FEATURES...COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SATURDAY...THOUGH ISOLATED IN NATURE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT
MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...A FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR OUR
FORECAST AREA OR JUST TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE WEAK
AND IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MONDAY. THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REASSERT ITSELF AS IT BUILDS SLOWLY
WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
WILL NOT BE OF SUFFICIENT MAGNITUDE TO KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST. SUN AND MON CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DRIER COLUMN WITH LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
THEREAFTER...THE MOISTURE DOES DEEPEN THROUGH A SIGNIFICANT DEPTH
AS A DEEP SW FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATER WED AND THU THAN EARLIER
IN THE NEW WEEK. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR A RATHER
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS PEAKING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE HOURS. THE SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH SHOULD SERVE AS INITIAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SUN WITH LOWER TO MID 90S
COMMON FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY INCREASE.
SEABREEZE INFLUENCES WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS
IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. LOW TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
NEAR 70 TO THE LOWER 70S WITH MID 70S AT THE BEACHES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE RADAR HAS QUIETED EARLY THIS FRI MORNING AS THE
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAS DISSIPATED. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS TO DOMINATE SKY CONDITIONS AND SW-WSW WINDS STAYING
ACTIVE...AROUND 5 KTS...AND SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG THREAT EARLY THIS
AM. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AS
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS KEEP US
DRY INTO THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS FOR ALL
TERMS STARTING EARLY FRI AFTN BETWEEN 17Z-18Z. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED A
TEMPO GROUPING FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS ALL TERMS WITH LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE AT THE COAST...AND THE SFC TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE INLAND. VFR FOR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT LOCALIZED
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM TSTMS. SW TO WSW WINDS AOB 10
KTS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT BECOMING S-SSW 10-15G19KTS FOLLOWING THE
INLAND PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON
SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ONLY DIURNALLY
INDUCED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM THURSDAY...SEAS 2-3 FEET WITH 3 TO 4 FEET SEAS IN THE
OUTER WATERS IN DECENT SOUTHERLY PUSH AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...SLIGHTLY LOWER NEAR SHORE. SEAS A MIX OF S WAVES 2-3
FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 7-9 SECONDS.
OUTSIDE OF TSTMS NO WIND AND SEA HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW GENERALLY AROUND 15
KTS...WITH SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 4FTERS POSSIBLE IN THE
EXTREME OUTER WATERS...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA REMAINS WEDGED BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AS THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...WILL SEE WINDS BACK OFF IMMENSELY WITH WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS...VARIABLE AT TIMES. AS FOR SEAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT SEAS OF 2 FT...WITH 3 FT OCCASIONALLY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...A FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN WATERS OR JUST
TO OUR N ON SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE. A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY REASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS DURING SUN
WILL BE FROM THE E...VEERING TO THE SE SUN NIGHT AND MON. WINDS
MON NIGHT AND TUE WILL BE FROM THE S. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL
PRODUCE A SLACK GRADIENT...PERHAPS TIGHTENING SLIGHTLY DURING TUE.
THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY SHOULD LARGELY DICTATE THE WIND SPEEDS AND
WOULD EXPECT A 5 KT BUMP UP IN WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVE...WHEN THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WILL
BE MOST DISTINCT. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT... LIKELY BUILDING UP TO 3 TO 4 FT DURING TUE AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW PERSISTS AND STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SGL
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...RJD
AVIATION...DCH/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1030 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED ACROSS
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WILL UPDATED FOR THIS AND ADDED SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA...SO ADDED AND TAILORED POPS FOR THIS TREND. RAIN
ENDING SOUTH CENTRAL AND DIMINISHING EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MADE CHANGES BASED ON LATEST SAT/RADAR TRENDS ADDING RAP MODEL
FORECAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE RAP MODEL HAS THE RENDS
RIGHT BUT IS A BIT SLOW IN ENDING THE PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING
SUGGESTING THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BUT T WILL END AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTION
CHANCES AND PLACEMENT.
CURRENTLY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN BACK NORTHWEST
TOWARDS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. AN IMPULSE OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD...PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST RADARS INDICATE BACK EDGE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
FROM AROUND BOWMAN TO DICKINSON NORTHWARD TO STANLEY. TO THE WEST
OF THIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER EASTERN MONTANA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE 16 UTC HRRR STILL INDICATES
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN MONTANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ROTATING INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. THUS WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
TO THE EAST...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS ALSO TRACKING ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE FAR SOUTHEAST FROM JAMESTOWN SOUTH
THROUGH OAKES IS THE ONLY AREA OF THE CWA INDICATING MINOR
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. BUT WITH
CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE JAMES WILL KNOCK DOWN THE
MEAGER AT BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONGER CELLS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT OVERALL THE SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP SOME
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AND UPPER LOW.
THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SUNDAY...KEEPING
THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. BUT THE
RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
PERHAPS ABOUT A 12HR TO 18HR WINDOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WHERE THERE WILL NOT BE A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS A
WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW
QUICKLY RETURNS BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER SLOW MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SURFACE LOW
REFLECTION ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY. WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES RIDING OVER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG WITH SOME
JET STREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME ENHANCING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...EXPECT
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS
AND NOSE NORTH FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
THIS WOULD PRODUCE A WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN. UNTIL
THEN...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE SHORT TERM WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ON A DAILY BASIS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00 TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT
1025 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
AT 10 PM CST A SURFACE LOW EXTENDED FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS WILL EXTEND ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 06Z. TO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY VFR TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
831 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA...SO ADDED AND TAILORED POPS FOR THIS TREND. RAIN
ENDING SOUTH CENTRAL AND DIMINISHING EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MADE CHANGES BASED ON LATEST SAT/RADAR TRENDS ADDING RAP MODEL
FORECAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE RAP MODEL HAS THE RENDS
RIGHT BUT IS A BIT SLOW IN ENDING THE PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING
SUGGESTING THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BUT T WILL END AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTION
CHANCES AND PLACEMENT.
CURRENTLY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN BACK NORTHWEST
TOWARDS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. AN IMPULSE OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD...PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST RADARS INDICATE BACK EDGE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
FROM AROUND BOWMAN TO DICKINSON NORTHWARD TO STANLEY. TO THE WEST
OF THIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER EASTERN MONTANA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE 16 UTC HRRR STILL INDICATES
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN MONTANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ROTATING INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. THUS WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
TO THE EAST...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS ALSO TRACKING ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE FAR SOUTHEAST FROM JAMESTOWN SOUTH
THROUGH OAKES IS THE ONLY AREA OF THE CWA INDICATING MINOR
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. BUT WITH
CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE JAMES WILL KNOCK DOWN THE
MEAGER AT BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONGER CELLS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT OVERALL THE SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP SOME
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AND UPPER LOW.
THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SUNDAY...KEEPING
THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. BUT THE
RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
PERHAPS ABOUT A 12HR TO 18HR WINDOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WHERE THERE WILL NOT BE A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS A
WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW
QUICKLY RETURNS BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER SLOW MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SURFACE LOW
REFLECTION ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY. WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES RIDING OVER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG WITH SOME
JET STREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME ENHANCING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...EXPECT
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS
AND NOSE NORTH FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
THIS WOULD PRODUCE A WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN. UNTIL
THEN...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE SHORT TERM WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ON A DAILY BASIS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
AT 8 PM CDT A SURFACE LOW FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA EXTENDED
NORTHWEST INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA. WEAK
INSTABILITY BENEATH AN UPPER LOW IN NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST THIS
EVENING. TO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY
VFR TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
636 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MADE CHANGES BASED ON LATEST SAT/RADAR TRENDS ADDING RAP MODEL
FORECAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE RAP MODEL HAS THE RENDS
RIGHT BUT IS A BIT SLOW IN ENDING THE PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING
SUGGESTING THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BUT T WILL END AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTION
CHANCES AND PLACEMENT.
CURRENTLY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN BACK NORTHWEST
TOWARDS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. AN IMPULSE OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD...PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST RADARS INDICATE BACK EDGE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
FROM AROUND BOWMAN TO DICKINSON NORTHWARD TO STANLEY. TO THE WEST
OF THIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER EASTERN MONTANA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE 16 UTC HRRR STILL INDICATES
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN MONTANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ROTATING INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. THUS WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
TO THE EAST...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS ALSO TRACKING ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE FAR SOUTHEAST FROM JAMESTOWN SOUTH
THROUGH OAKES IS THE ONLY AREA OF THE CWA INDICATING MINOR
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. BUT WITH
CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE JAMES WILL KNOCK DOWN THE
MEAGER AT BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONGER CELLS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT OVERALL THE SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP SOME
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AND UPPER LOW.
THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SUNDAY...KEEPING
THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. BUT THE
RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
PERHAPS ABOUT A 12HR TO 18HR WINDOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WHERE THERE WILL NOT BE A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS A
WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW
QUICKLY RETURNS BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER SLOW MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SURFACE LOW
REFLECTION ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY. WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES RIDING OVER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG WITH SOME
JET STREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME ENHANCING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...EXPECT
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS
AND NOSE NORTH FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
THIS WOULD PRODUCE A WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN. UNTIL
THEN...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE SHORT TERM WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ON A DAILY BASIS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
SURFACE LOW EXTENDED FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA. FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTH WITH THIS TROUGH. ALSO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM THIS
EVENING BUT WILL END AFTER SUNSET. TO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS
AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY VFR TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS SPREADING
ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
630 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE DRY
AND MORE COMFORTABLE AIR OVER WEEKEND. WARMER AND MORE HUMID EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WAS WEAKENING OVER THE WV MOUNTAINS AT 07Z. THE 700 MB FLOW HAD
TURNED TO NORTH AT ILN THURSDAY EVENING...BUT HAS ALREADY BACKED TO
SW AGAIN.
FORECASTING THE MOST PREDAWN FOG IN THE CKB TO CRW TO SOUTHERN WV
COAL FIELDS WHERE SOME CLEARING OCCURRED IN THE WAKE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROF. HAVE CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY 12Z. TO THE WEST...WITH
FLOW AND CLOUDS FIGURED TO INCREASE...DID NOT HIT FOG AS HARD IN THE
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.
TO THE WEST...SURFACE FRONT SEEMS TO HAVE PASSED DAY AT 07Z WITH A
WIND SHIFT. HAVE THE FRONT REACHING INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND
PKB BY 15Z. WILL TRY TO DEVELOP SOME LIKELY POPS IN WV AS FRONT
PASSES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH STEERING FLOW FROM THE WEST...NOT
PICTURING/FORECASTING REPETITIVE CELLS/TRAINING TODAY.
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS GET TO 25 TO 30 THSD FOR A HOUR OR TWO IN WV THIS
AFTERNOON. WAS NOT IN A BIG HURRY REMOVING POPS IN WV AND SW
VIRGINIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER ON
THE RAP DOES START DROPPING UNTIL ABOUT 22Z OR 23Z.
SOME STRATOCUMULUS MAY BE SEEN OVERNIGHT AS THE COOLER 850
TEMPERATURES MOVES SOUTHEAST. THINKING THE SOUTHERN WV VALLEYS WILL
BE CLEAR ENOUGH 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY FOR SOME PREDAWN VALLEY FOG WITH
THOSE COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS HEADS EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO START TO RETURN. GFS TRIES TO KICK OFF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS SW VA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NAM...ECMWF AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST KEEP THINGS DRY...SO KEPT PRECIP OUT. USED A BLEND
OF BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS FOR LOWS...AND MAV/MET BLEND ON HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED...PRIMARILY WITH WHERE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF TRACKS. GFS IS FARTHER E OVER THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY WHILE ECMWF DUMPS IT INTO NW CONUS WITH RIDGING
TAKING HOLD IN THE PLAINS AND E. WILL SIDE CLOSE TO HPC SOLUTIONS
WHICH GENERALLY FOLLOWS ECWMF. AS SUCH...RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
ON TUE AND REORGANIZES TO THE W...OVER THE MS VALLEY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT WASHES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL TRY TO PUT THE AREA
IN NW FLOW ALOFT...ALBEIT WEAK FLOW. WILL BE WATCHING FOR SUBTLE
RIPPLES TO COME DOWN IN THE FLOW ALOFT...BUT AT THIS DISTANCE ROLLED
WITH MAINLY A DIURNAL TREND IN THE POPS AND CAPPED AROUND 40
PERCENT. TRIED TO NIX POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS...ABSENT ANY
DISTURBANCE COMING DOWN THE PIKE. ALSO CODED UP A MAX OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ON WEAK CONVERGENCE ON
THE RIDGES. OVERALL THEME IN THE EXTENDED IS SCT SHRA/TSRA TUE-THU
WITH DOWNPOURS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING
ON THE MUGGY SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAST OF THE SURFACE BASED FOG SHOULD BE EVAPORATING AT 12Z. SOME
LOWER STRATUS CEILINGS AROUND 1 THSD FT MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING
OVER THE SOUTHERN WV COAL FIELDS DOWN INTO SW VIRGINIA.
OTHERWISE BY 15Z...CEILINGS BECOMING MOSTLY 3 TO 4 THSD FT BKN/OVC
EXCEPT NEAR 2 THSD FT OVER MOUNTAINS. BRIEF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM
LOWRING VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES. LAST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING
SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS AND NEAR GRUNDY VIRGINIA AROUND 00Z SATURDAY.
POST FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOSTLY 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL
SCATTERED TO BROKEN 00Z TO 06Z...BECOMING CLEAR TO SCATTERED. IN
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES VALLEY FOG MOSTLY LIKELY TO FORM OVER
SOUTHERN WV...INCLUDING CRW 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY WITH VSBY BECOMING
BLO 3 MILES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DRYING FROM THE NW MAY BE A FEW HOURS FASTER
THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY L M H M M M M M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L M H H M M M M M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L H H H M M H H H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L M H H M H H H M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L H H M M H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
LOCAL IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
340 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE DRY
AND MORE COMFORTABLE AIR OVER WEEKEND. WARMER AND MORE HUMID EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WAS WEAKENING OVER THE WV MOUNTAINS AT 07Z. THE 700 MB FLOW HAD
TURNED TO NORTH AT ILN THURSDAY EVENING...BUT HAS ALREADY BACKED TO
SW AGAIN.
FORECASTING THE MOST PREDAWN FOG IN THE CKB TO CRW TO SOUTHERN WV
COAL FIELDS WHERE SOME CLEARING OCCURRED IN THE WAKE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROF. HAVE CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY 12Z. TO THE WEST...WITH
FLOW AND CLOUDS FIGURED TO INCREASE...DID NOT HIT FOG AS HARD IN THE
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.
TO THE WEST...SURFACE FRONT SEEMS TO HAVE PASSED DAY AT 07Z WITH A
WIND SHIFT. HAVE THE FRONT REACHING INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND
PKB BY 15Z. WILL TRY TO DEVELOP SOME LIKELY POPS IN WV AS FRONT
PASSES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH STEERING FLOW FROM THE WEST...NOT
PICTURING/FORECASTING REPETITIVE CELLS/TRAINING TODAY.
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS GET TO 25 TO 30 THSD FOR A HOUR OR TWO IN WV THIS
AFTERNOON. WAS NOT IN A BIG HURRY REMOVING POPS IN WV AND SW
VIRGINIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER ON
THE RAP DOES START DROPPING UNTIL ABOUT 22Z OR 23Z.
SOME STRATOCUMULUS MAY BE SEEN OVERNIGHT AS THE COOLER 850
TEMPERATURES MOVES SOUTHEAST. THINKING THE SOUTHERN WV VALLEYS WILL
BE CLEAR ENOUGH 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY FOR SOME PREDAWN VALLEY FOG WITH
THOSE COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS HEADS EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO START TO RETURN. GFS TRIES TO KICK OFF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS SW VA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NAM...ECMWF AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST KEEP THINGS DRY...SO KEPT PRECIP OUT. USED A BLEND
OF BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS FOR LOWS...AND MAV/MET BLEND ON HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED...PRIMARILY WITH WHERE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF TRACKS. GFS IS FARTHER E OVER THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY WHILE ECMWF DUMPS IT INTO NW CONUS WITH RIDGING
TAKING HOLD IN THE PLAINS AND E. WILL SIDE CLOSE TO HPC SOLUTIONS
WHICH GENERALLY FOLLOWS ECWMF. AS SUCH...RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
ON TUE AND REORGANIZES TO THE W...OVER THE MS VALLEY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT WASHES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL TRY TO PUT THE AREA
IN NW FLOW ALOFT...ALBEIT WEAK FLOW. WILL BE WATCHING FOR SUBTLE
RIPPLES TO COME DOWN IN THE FLOW ALOFT...BUT AT THIS DISTANCE ROLLED
WITH MAINLY A DIURNAL TREND IN THE POPS AND CAPPED AROUND 40
PERCENT. TRIED TO NIX POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS...ABSENT ANY
DISTURBANCE COMING DOWN THE PIKE. ALSO CODED UP A MAX OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ON WEAK CONVERGENCE ON
THE RIDGES. OVERALL THEME IN THE EXTENDED IS SCT SHRA/TSRA TUE-THU
WITH DOWNPOURS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING
ON THE MUGGY SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL TROF PASSING EAST OF CRW AND THROUGH MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
06Z TO 10Z. STILL A SOME CEILINGS AROUND 2 THSD FT BKN AND A FEW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A 4 TO 6 HOUR OPENING TO THE WEST OF
THAT TROF...SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF VALLEY FOG CKB-CRW INTO THE
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. SOME OF THAT FOG COULD SPILL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLATEAU VCNTY BKW. HOWEVER...COLD FRONT ALONG WESTERN OHIO
BORDER AT 06Z. FIGURING LOW LEVEL FLOW AT LEAST JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE SHOULD BE INCREASING IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES 09Z TO 12Z
ALONG WITH A RETURN OF 4 TO 6 THSD FT BKN CEILINGS. SO WILL NOT GO
AS HARD ON THE FOG IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEST CHANCE OF SHOWER/TSTM ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER SHOULD BE 14Z TO 18Z...THEN 17Z TO 23Z FURTHER EAST. BASED ON
FORECAST MODELS LINGERING INSTABILITY...WILL NOT BE TOO QUICK
REMOVING POPS CRW ON EAST. HAVE CEILINGS MOSTLY 2 TO 4 THSD FT BKN
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. VSBY BRIEFLY 3 MILES IN CONVECTION.
SOME POST FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS FIGURED AT 4 TO 5 THSD FT 00Z TO 06Z
SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FOG FORMING COULD VARY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TIMING OF CONVECTION AND COLD FRONT COULD VARY FOR FRIDAY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 06/13/14
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L H H M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M H M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L H M H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
EXPECT EARLY MORNING FOG FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
708 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING MOVING OUT OF NERN WY INTO SWRN
SD/BLKHLS...AND THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO
PROGRESS EWD ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES THIS EVE SO HAVE UPPER THE POPS
CONSIDERABLE FOR THAT AREA. REST OF FCST MOSTLY UNCHANGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS CLOSED LOW OVER MONTANA WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COMPLEX OF MORNING STORMS HAS
EXITED THE AREA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WHILE ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND
SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND IS MOVING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT THE
MOMENT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TROF HAS SHIFTED INTO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH NORTHERN ROCKIES HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE 60S...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE BREEZY IN SPOTS OUT OF THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST.
TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET IN
MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY COULD LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE CLIPS THE AREA. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE BLACK HILLS.
SUNDAY...ZONAL FLOW/WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FOR A
BRIEF TIME AS CLOSED LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BRISK
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON BACK EDGE OF EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
DIFFERENT SOMEWHAT ON THE EXACT DISPOSITION OF EACH SHORTWAVE...AS
WELL AS ANY 500MB CUTOFF LOWS. BUT THE PATTERN STRONGLY SUGGESTS
ACTIVE WEATHER WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AND AT LEAST A
COUPLE DAYS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL WAVER
SOFTLY ON EITHER SIDE OF SEASONAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LOCAL
IFR CIGS/VSBYS. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
310 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SHIFTING EAST WITH WINDS HOLDING OR
SLIGHTLY DECREASING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1500 MDT.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. FIRST SHORT WAVE TROF HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE AREA CARRYING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH IT.
SECOND...SOMEWHAT STRONGER TROF IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS AFTN AND HELPING TO DIMINISH THE
STABILITY. A THIRD TROF WILL APPROACH TOMORROW GIVING CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FCST TO DVLP OVR SW SD IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL DVLPMNTS...AND THEN MOVE EAST WARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM SE MT ACROSS WRN SD...REPRESENTING A
WEAK WARM FRONT. THIS ZONE IS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONGER SFC TO 1 KM
SHEAR THAT COULD ENHANCE LOW LVL ROTATION IN SOME STORMS.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ADEQUATE CAPE AND SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR FOR
SVR STORMS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. INVERTED V PROG SOUNDINGS
AND CONSISTENT MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL SUGGEST QUITE
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL FOR THE DVLPG CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND THIS
EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL HAS INITIATED CONVECTION AT ABOUT THE
RIGHT TIME AND HAS CONSISTENTLY INTENSIFIED THE STORMS QUICKLY
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN OVR OUR WYOMING COUNTIES AND MOVED THE
STORMS QUICKLY E WARD INTO WRN SD. IN SPITE OF POTENTIAL FOR LOW
LVL ROTATION IN STORMS...THE LCLS ARE HIGH...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
TEMPERATURES WERE HELD CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO POTENTIALLY WET GROUND. SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOULD SEE DRYING OVER THE AREA AND AN END TO PRECIP. KEPT SOME
POPS IN FOR SATURDAY DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE APPROACH OF WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROF.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY
ON SUNDAY. WILL BE BREEZY/WINDY AS A RESULT FROM TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...AS GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF. THIS FEATURES UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DAILY
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SLOWER MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN
WARMER DAYS EARLY IN THE WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THE LAST HALF OF
THE WEEK IN MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...PATTERN STILL FAVORS
DAILY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH IFR VSBY/LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...BARBER
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
355 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
VERY DRY AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS IS
LIMITING OVERALL INSTABILITY...PUSHING THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION MORE TOWARDS FAR WESTERN SD. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES TO NEAR 50KTS...AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HELP MU CAPE VALUES BUILD TOWARDS 1500-2000 J/KG. WITH 50KTS H5
WINDS...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MID LEVEL ROTATION WITHIN
ANY STORMS THAT FORM THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THUS...THE MAIN RISK FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
LIMITED TO HAIL. HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVECTION
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...THOUGH IDENTIFYING ONLY ONE
OR TWO DISCREET CELLS...SO HAVE BROUGHT COVERAGE DOWN TO 50
PERCENT.
MODELS HAVE THE INVERTED TROF/FRONT OVER ABERDEEN BY MID MORNING.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME STRATUS BELOW THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVER
EASTERN COUNTIES...SO THERE IS THE QUESTION OF WHETHER WE WILL
SEE ENOUGH HEATING FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...WHICH IS THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN. IF WE SEE
AMPLE SUN...500 TO 1500 J/KG ML CAPE AND 40 TO 50KTS BULK SHEAR
WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/STRONG
WINDS. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FRONT...AROUND 500 J/KG ML CAPE...WITH A WEAKER CAP
TEMPERATURE...SO POST FRONTAL CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT OVER PRECIPITATION HANGING ON IN THE
POST FRONTAL AIRMASS BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...THANKS TO Q CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG THE STALLED FRONT...ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN CWA.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE DIGGING IN/DEVELOPING
INTO THE WESTERN US ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IT WILL THEN MOVE
SLOWLY EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO OUR
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SENDING OFF MANY SHORT WAVES TO THE
NORTHEAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION BEFORE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM COMES
OUT. WITH A GOOD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
REGION ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND DEEP INSTABILITY...EACH
OF THESE WAVES WILL BRING COMPLEXES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. THUS...WEATHER AND POPS ARE IN EVERY PERIOD
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING BRINGING MAINLY VFR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR ALSO SHOWING SOME HIGH BASED
VIRGA/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE PIR AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. INSERTED SOME VICINITY SHOWERS IN AT PIR.
OTHERWISE...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AT
ALL LOCATIONS WITH A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A DEEP
MIXING LAYER. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A COMPLEX OF LLJ SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP OUT WEST AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS OUR CWA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH LESS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
STRONGER CAPPING IN THE EAST....THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME SURVIVING ALL THE WAY TO ATY BY MORNING. THE HRRR MODEL
SHOWS THESE SHOWERS/STORMS DIMINISHING LATER. INSERTED SOME VICINITY
THUNDER IN AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. THE LAST ISSUE WILL BE WITH THE
INCREASING LL RH LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING SOME
MVFR CEILINGS TO ALL LOCATIONS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
218 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1500 MDT.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. FIRST SHORT WAVE TROF HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE AREA CARRYING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH IT.
SECOND...SOMEWHAT STRONGER TROF IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS AFTN AND HELPING TO DIMINISH THE
STABILITY. A THIRD TROF WILL APPROACH TOMORROW GIVING CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FCST TO DVLP OVR SW SD IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL DVLPMNTS...AND THEN MOVE EAST WARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM SE MT ACROSS WRN SD...REPRESENTING A
WEAK WARM FRONT. THIS ZONE IS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONGER SFC TO 1 KM
SHEAR THAT COULD ENHANCE LOW LVL ROTATION IN SOME STORMS.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ADEQUATE CAPE AND SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR FOR
SVR STORMS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. INVERTED V PROG SOUNDINGS
AND CONSISTENT MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL SUGGEST QUITE
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL FOR THE DVLPG CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND THIS
EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL HAS INITIATED CONVECTION AT ABOUT THE
RIGHT TIME AND HAS CONSISTENTLY INTENSIFIED THE STORMS QUICKLY
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN OVR OUR WYOMING COUNTIES AND MOVED THE
STORMS QUICKLY E WARD INTO WRN SD. IN SPITE OF POTENTIAL FOR LOW
LVL ROTATION IN STORMS...THE LCLS ARE HIGH...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
TEMPERATURES WERE HELD CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO POTENTIALLY WET GROUND. SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOULD SEE DRYING OVER THE AREA AND AN END TO PRECIP. KEPT SOME
POPS IN FOR SATURDAY DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE APPROACH OF WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROF.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY
ON SUNDAY. WILL BE BREEZY/WINDY AS A RESULT FROM TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...AS GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF. THIS FEATURES UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DAILY
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SLOWER MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN
WARMER DAYS EARLY IN THE WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THE LAST HALF OF
THE WEEK IN MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...PATTERN STILL FAVORS
DAILY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH IFR VSBY/LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SDZ001-002-013-014-032-042>044-046-047.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARBER
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
113 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.
ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST IS TO EXPAND MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER
AS HIGH BASED SHOWERS PUSH ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AND INCREASE
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE WINDS TODAY...THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IN THE WEST THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN CWA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PAC NW. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE SOUTHEAST...AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
TO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TODAY. 925 MB AND HALF KM WINDS
SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
LATER TONIGHT...MODELS ARE SHOWING A 40-50 KNOT LLJ NOSING INTO
THIS CWA ALONG WITH DECENT MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. SUPPORT FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADIENT COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PUSH
INTO MINNESOTA DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN SD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON SATURDAY. THIS INVERTED TROUGH...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT SHOULD
INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-29 CORRIDOR. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
STILL LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST IN THE
OUT PERIODS...WITH CONVECTION CHANCES ABOUNDING. SWRLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ALLBLEND POPS STILL
SMEAR CONVECTION ACROSS PRETTY MUCH EVERY PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED.
AND THAT`S OKAY FOR NOW. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO START DRYING
THINGS OUT AS TIME PERIODS OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION BECOME CLEARER.
TEMPERATURES COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OR SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE OUT PERIODS. IT REALLY JUST DEPENDS ON
WHICH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THE CWA ENDS UP BEING
ON...AND THE 00Z EC/GFS ARE STILL AT ODDS OVER TEMPS /THE EC CAME
IN COOLER WHILE THE GFS CAME IN MARKEDLY WARMER/.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING BRINGING MAINLY VFR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR ALSO SHOWING SOME HIGH BASED
VIRGA/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE PIR AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. INSERTED SOME VICINITY SHOWERS IN AT PIR.
OTHERWISE...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AT
ALL LOCATIONS WITH A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A DEEP
MIXING LAYER. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A COMPLEX OF LLJ SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP OUT WEST AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS OUR CWA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH LESS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
STRONGER CAPPING IN THE EAST....THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL HAVE A
HARD TIME SURVIVING ALL THE WAY TO ATY BY MORNING. THE HRRR MODEL
SHOWS THESE SHOWERS/STORMS DIMINISHING LATER. INSERTED SOME VICINITY
THUNDER IN AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. THE LAST ISSUE WILL BE WITH THE
INCREASING LL RH LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING SOME
MVFR CEILINGS TO ALL LOCATIONS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT /5 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR BUFFALO-
CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-
LYMAN-MCPHERSON-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...MOHR
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1129 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
MINOR UPDATE FOR PRESENT TRENDS. WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD.
ATTENTION IS NOW ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTN. NAM AND
RAP FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR FOR
SEVERE...NAM LARGER CAPE...2200 J/KG WITH ABOUT 1500 J/KG ON THE
RAP. BOTH HAVE 40 PLUS KTS 0-6 KM SHEAR. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
INVERTED V STRUCTURE INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG WIND
GUSTS. 13Z HRRR MODEL INITIATES CONVECTION OVER CAMPBELL COUNTY
19Z WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION. MAX GUSTS AROUND 65 KT IN SOME OF
ITS STORMS BY 22Z. AS THIS FIRST BATCH OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS ERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...A SECOND WAVE OF STORMS MOVES INTO OUR WY
COUNTIES FROM THE SW AROUND AND AFTER 00Z. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
IS HINTED AT BY NAM BUFKIT CAPE FCSTS FOR KGCC AS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
06Z MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT STRONGER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
ACROSS THE SD PLAINS TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS FROM PINE RIDGE
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO COVER
SHANNON...JACKSON...BENNETT...MELLETTE...AND TODD COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWESTERN MT
AND A COLD FRONT OVER ID. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MOVING
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER WA.
LOW LEVEL JET HAS INTENSIFIED OVER EASTERN MT...NORTHEASTERN
WY...AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
RIDGE... BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MT AND NORTHEAST WY
RIGHT NOW. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN SD THIS
MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSHOWER. TEMPS
ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S RIGHT NOW.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER
LOW TO THE WEST MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE RATHER GUSTY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET MOVES SLOWLY EAST FROM THE WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. A PERIOD OF
STRONGER WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE PINE RIDGE
AREA. THESE WINDS WILL BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES FROM
THE BLACK HILLS AREA EASTWARD. FORECAST INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE...WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOW COVERS PRETTY MUCH THE
ENTIRE CWA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AROUND MID AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND THE CAP ERODES SUFFICIENTLY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GENERALLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PCPN AND SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE FROM FAR NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK
HILLS INTO NORTHWESTERN SD LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM SEVERE
STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE TODAY AS THE FRONT PASSES.
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS
THE FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY TOWARD CENTRAL SD AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST MT
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE LOW
DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL SD
THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE FINALLY MOVING EAST OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TO AT
LEAST THE MID 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WITH THE FRONT IN PLACE AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD DURING THE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY
ON SUNDAY AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT FROM A RELATIVELY
TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPPER FEATURES NEXT
WEEK. IT DOES HOWEVER LOOK LIKE THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SO
WILL LEAVE IN THE DAILY CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH IFR VSBY/LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SDZ001-002-013-014-032-042>044-046-047.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARBER
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...7
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
955 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 942 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
MINOR UPDATE FOR PRESENT TRENDS. WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD.
ATTENTION IS NOW ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTN. NAM AND
RAP FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR FOR
SEVERE...NAM LARGER CAPE...2200 J/KG WITH ABOUT 1500 J/KG ON THE
RAP. BOTH HAVE 40 PLUS KTS 0-6 KM SHEAR. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW
INVERTED V STRUCTURE INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG WIND
GUSTS. 13Z HRRR MODEL INITIATES CONVECTION OVER CAMPBELL COUNTY
19Z WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION. MAX GUSTS AROUND 65 KT IN SOME OF
ITS STORMS BY 22Z. AS THIS FIRST BATCH OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS ERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...A SECOND WAVE OF STORMS MOVES INTO OUR WY
COUNTIES FROM THE SW AROUND AND AFTER 00Z. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
IS HINTED AT BY NAM BUFKIT CAPE FCSTS FOR KGCC AS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
06Z MODELS HAVE COME IN A BIT STRONGER WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
ACROSS THE SD PLAINS TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS FROM PINE RIDGE
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO COVER
SHANNON...JACKSON...BENNETT...MELLETTE...AND TODD COUNTIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWESTERN MT
AND A COLD FRONT OVER ID. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MOVING
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER WA.
LOW LEVEL JET HAS INTENSIFIED OVER EASTERN MT...NORTHEASTERN
WY...AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
RIDGE... BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MT AND NORTHEAST WY
RIGHT NOW. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN SD THIS
MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSHOWER. TEMPS
ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S RIGHT NOW.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER
LOW TO THE WEST MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE RATHER GUSTY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET MOVES SLOWLY EAST FROM THE WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. A PERIOD OF
STRONGER WINDS IS ALSO EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE PINE RIDGE
AREA. THESE WINDS WILL BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES FROM
THE BLACK HILLS AREA EASTWARD. FORECAST INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE...WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOW COVERS PRETTY MUCH THE
ENTIRE CWA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS AROUND MID AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND THE CAP ERODES SUFFICIENTLY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GENERALLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PCPN AND SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE FROM FAR NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK
HILLS INTO NORTHWESTERN SD LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM SEVERE
STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE TODAY AS THE FRONT PASSES.
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS
THE FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY TOWARD CENTRAL SD AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST MT
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE LOW
DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL SD
THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE FINALLY MOVING EAST OF THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S ACROSS WESTERN AREAS TO AT
LEAST THE MID 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WITH THE FRONT IN PLACE AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD DURING THE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY
ON SUNDAY AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT FROM A RELATIVELY
TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPPER FEATURES NEXT
WEEK. IT DOES HOWEVER LOOK LIKE THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SO
WILL LEAVE IN THE DAILY CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SDZ001-002-013-014-032-042>044-046-047.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARBER
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10
MUCH...SO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION REMAINS APPENDED
BELOW. THE WEAK MCV WAS STILL EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WAS NOW LOCATED NEAR THE ERATH AND
HAMILTON COUNTY BORDER. THERE WAS STILL AN ENHANCED BAND OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND THIS FEATURE...SO LEFT 20 POPS IN PLACE AS
FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 20 FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS BEFORE
SUNSET. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH MICROBURSTS.
OTHERWISE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW
DUE TO WEAK WIND SHEAR OVER THE REGION.
AFTER SUNSET...IF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED BY THIS
TIME...THE LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD QUICKLY STABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT TO THE POINT WHERE WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MCV WILL HAVE ALMOST NO CHANCE OF INITIATING NEW STORMS.
OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE SCATTERED
STORMS WERE INITIATING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AT THE
TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO
A QLCS AND MOVE EAST OVER WEST TEXAS AFTER SUNSET.
AT THE SAME TIME...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING...BUILDING SOME
STRONGER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE
THIS CHANGE IN DIRECTION OF STEERING WINDS ALOFT FROM NORTHWEST
TO WEST COULD STEER THIS QLCS EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. WITH MANY HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING THIS QLCS REACHING THE FAR WESTERN CWA
BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...WENT AHEAD
WITH SOME 20 POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM OLNEY TO MERIDIAN TO TEMPLE
FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TOMORROW. THE MCS SHOULD BE VERY WEAK AT
THIS TIME...SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT AND
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES SHOULD BE VERY LOW. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF
THE REMNANTS OF THIS MCS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN NEW THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES OVER NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
FOR SATURDAY...THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A REGIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK FOR THESE LOCATIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT THIS TROUGH TRACK GENERALLY LEAVES NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS UNDER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. WITHOUT KNOWING FOR SURE WHETHER
OVERNIGHT NEW MEXICO CONVECTION WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE WESTERN
CWA TONIGHT...CANNOT SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHAT THE MESOSCALE
ENVIRONMENT MAY LOOK LIKE FOR US TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME SUPPORTING WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT...HAVE TO SIDE WITH A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME. JUST KEEP
IN MIND THAT ANY REMNANTS FROM HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION COULD CHANGE
THINGS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ANY NEW HIGH PLAINS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD TEND TO STAY NORTH OF THE CWA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
STEERING FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND THIS SHOULD KEEP
MOST STORM TRACKS NORTH OF US FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY IS A
BIT HIGHER THAN ON SATURDAY... ALTHOUGH BOTH DAYS WILL BE
DOMINATED BY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
GENERALLY BE HELD IN THE LOW 90S WITH MORNING CLOUD COVER
SCATTERING OUT EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND
SHOULD PICK UP IN INTENSITY A BIT TO 10 TO 15 MPH EACH AFTERNOON.
NEXT WEEK...IN GENERAL MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK AHEAD AS WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. THE BIG
EXCEPTION TO THIS APPEARS TO BE A WEAK UPPER LOW THAT ORGANIZES
OVER MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS
NORTH TEXAS MID-WEEK. THE ORIGIN OF THIS UPPER LOW IS SOMEWHAT
PUZZLING AS IT IS UNCERTAIN WHERE IT COMES FROM EXACTLY. ARE THE
MODELS TAKING SOME VORTICITY AWAY FROM HURRICANE CHRISTINA AND
MOVING THAT UP NORTH OVER THE MEXICAN HIGH TERRAIN? THE MODELS ALL
HAVE A NICE TROPICAL FETCH OF MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF MEXICO FROM FATHERS DAY TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO MAYBE
THE MODELS GENERATE THE UPPER LOW FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH THE TROPICAL AIRMASS/OROGRAPHIC LIFT INTERACTION.
REGARDLESS...THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL ADVERTISE THIS
FEATURE...SO DECIDED THAT SOME UPPER LOW IS LIKELY TO MOVE FROM
MEXICO TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS MID-WEEK.
THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER THE STRONGEST SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO
THE STRENGTH AND DYNAMICS OF THIS UPPER LOW...BUT THEIR TIMING IS
24 HRS OFF FROM ONE ANOTHER. THE CANADIAN IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER
WITH THIS UPPER SYSTEM. FOR NOW WENT AHEAD WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION
BRINGING THIS UPPER LOW OUT OF MEXICO AND OVER NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT MODEL WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL GIVE IT THE BENEFIT
OF THE DOUBT FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR IMPROVING MODEL TO
MODEL AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY REGARDING THIS FEATURE IN LATER
FORECASTS. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER NORTH TEXAS ANYTIME FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THAT REPRESENTS THE
FULL RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME.
IN GENERAL...THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD PRIMARILY BRING BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL TO THE REGION AS MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP AND TROPICAL IN
NATURE WHILE WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK. THIS SHOULD MEAN THAT
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE LOW...BUT ALL OF THOSE DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW THE UPPER LOW DOES NOT EVEN
APPEAR TO EXIST IN THE LIMITED UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AVAILABLE OVER
MEXICO...SO WE WILL SEE HOW AND IF IT DEVELOPS AS ALL OF THE
MODELS ADVERTISE.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 73 91 75 91 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
WACO, TX 73 88 74 90 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 68 88 72 88 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 72 90 74 91 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 72 89 75 90 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 73 89 75 90 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 74 90 76 91 75 / 10 10 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 72 88 74 89 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 72 89 75 90 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 90 71 91 72 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
58/91
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1227 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.AVIATION...
THE WEAK EAST-WEST BOUNDARY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF METROPLEX MAY
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STORM MOTION
IS FORECAST TO BE SOUTHERLY AWAY FROM TAF SITES. COVERAGE WILL BE
LOW...AND WILL NOT MENTION TSRA AT KACT EITHER. SFC FLOW WILL BE
ESE OVERNIGHT...KEEPING STRATUS OUT OF TAF SITES. SMALL CHANCE OF
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT WACO...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE MORE
CONFIRMATION FROM LATER MODELS BEFORE INCLUDING MORNING CIGS
THERE.
HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING MCS FROM WEST TX MAKING IT INTO THE KABI
AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT DISSIPATION BEFORE REACHING
METROPLEX/KACT. 84
&&
.UPDATE...
...MESOSCALE FORECAST UPDATE...
15Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE DFW
METROPLEX. THIS FEATURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE BOSQUE/SOMERVELL
/JOHNSON COUNTY BORDERS AS OF 1515Z. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWED A BAND OF FOCUSED STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
LINE FROM CISCO TO BURLESON TO CANTON LATE THIS MORNING. 12Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS BAND OF CLOUDS MAY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED IN THE 925 TO 850 MB LAYER.
THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A CAPPING
INVERSION IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AND OBSERVED A PWAT OF 1.65
INCHES... INDICATIVE OF SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WIND FIELD OBSERVED IN THE SOUNDING WAS MORE OR
LESS LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 600 MB...HOWEVER A
LAYER OF LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WAS CONSISTENT IN THE LOW-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE.
THE RAP WAS THE ONLY MODEL THAT SEEMED TO HAVE A HINT OF THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR WHERE IT EXISTS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE.
TAKING A CROSS SECTION OF THIS FEATURE IN THE RAP YIELDS A MID TO
LOWER LEVEL POSITIVE PV-ANOMALY WITH A SUBSTANTIAL BUBBLE AT THE
TROPOPAUSE LEVEL. THIS VERTICAL PV STRUCTURE IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF THE DIABATIC EFFECTS OF LATENT HEAT
RELEASE ON POTENTIAL VORTICITY. THAT IS...THIS IS LIKELY THE
REMNANTS OF PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
OCCURRED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. AS FAR AS THE VORTICITY
REMNANTS OF DECAYED CONVECTION GO...THIS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX (MCV) APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AS IT IS HAVING ONLY SUBTLE
EFFECTS ON THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD. HOWEVER WITH ONLY A WEAKLY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OBSERVED ON THE 12Z FWD RAOB...IT WILL PROBABLY
NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUR LOCALLY CALCULATED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SHOW SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION (CINH) WEAKENING FROM THIS MCV EASTWARD
ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CINH IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ON EITHER
SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY...ALLOWING FOR STRONG HEATING. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SEEMS UNLIKELY TO MIX OUT WITH A FAIRLY DEEP MOIST LAYER
IN PLACE PER THE 1.65 PWAT OBSERVED ON THE 12Z FWD RAOB. DRY AIR
DOES EXIST IN THE RAOB...BUT NOT UNTIL YOU GET ABOVE THE 700 MB
LEVEL. SURFACE BASED AND MIXED LAYER CAPE CALCULATIONS ARE ON THE
ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG NEAR THIS AREA OF WEAKENING INHIBITION.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT WEAK NATURE OF THE MCV...THE LIMITED
RESPONSE IN THE WIND FIELDS LEAVES THE AREA IN WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...ON THE ORDER OF 20 KTS USING THE STANDARD 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR CALCULATION.
AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE COVERAGE OF 20 POPS
NORTH TO A LINE FROM CISCO TO FORT WORTH TO DALLAS TO CANTON FROM
WHERE POPS WERE IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS SOMEWHAT WEAK...SO COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE...ASSUMING FORCING IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE FIRST PLACE. ASSUMING STORMS
DEVELOP...EXPECT A SINGLE TO MULTI-CELL STORM MODE...WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WINDS IN THE FORM OF STRONG
MICROBURSTS. LARGE HAIL WILL PROBABLY BE HARD TO COME BY AS
INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS ARE UNLIKELY TO LAST MUCH LONGER THAN 45
MINUTES.
THERE MAY BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A LANDSPOUT TORNADO IF THE ELEVATED
FRONT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED AT THE SURFACE. LANDSPOUTS FORM FROM
STRETCHING VERTICAL VORTICITY RAPIDLY. THEREFORE WE WOULD NEED A
STATIONARY FRONT TO SHARPEN UP AT THE SURFACE...AND THEN NEED
STRONG UPDRAFTS TO OCCUR RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. OVERALL...NOT A
BIG THREAT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE EITHER. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE UPDATES IF
ANYTHING ELSE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
FORECAST AREA CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED
THIS MORNING...BUT A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS. FOR THE FORECAST TODAY...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MORNING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE DFW METROPLEX. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOCATION OF THE WEAK FRONT WAS MASKED BY NUMEROUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES BUT APPEARED TO BE STATIONARY FROM NEAR TYLER TO WACO
TO LAMPASAS. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...WITH NO
REAL EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES OR WINDS TODAY OR TONIGHT. WITH UPPER
RIDGING IN PLACE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...THE RESULTING LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE...WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN 60S AND LOWER 70S INTO THE
WEEKEND.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS AFTER TODAY...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SEVERAL PERIODS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE CONVECTION
AND RESULTING MCS THAT IS FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS TONIGHT SHOULD TEND TO DISSIPATE AS IT SPREADS EAST AND
NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CHANCES OF ANY REMNANT SHOWERS
MAKING IT TO NORTH TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS TIME. ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN LOW STORM CHANCES ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED
RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS ANOTHER
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS THAT WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN. HOWEVER...ECMWF
HAS SHOWN SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH BRINGING A WEAK UPPER
WAVE NORTHEAST FROM MEXICO INTO NORTH TEXAS AROUND WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN LACK OF CONSENSUS ON A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD...WILL NOT PUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
IN GENERAL...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
09
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 88 72 91 73 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
WACO, TX 89 72 91 74 91 / 20 10 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 85 66 88 70 88 / 5 10 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 87 69 92 73 90 / 5 10 10 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 86 68 89 72 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 88 72 91 74 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 87 69 90 72 90 / 20 10 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 88 70 90 72 90 / 20 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 89 71 90 73 90 / 20 10 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 87 70 91 70 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1119 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.UPDATE...
...MESOSCALE FORECAST UPDATE...
15Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE DFW
METROPLEX. THIS FEATURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE BOSQUE/SOMERVELL
/JOHNSON COUNTY BORDERS AS OF 1515Z. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWED A BAND OF FOCUSED STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
LINE FROM CISCO TO BURLESON TO CANTON LATE THIS MORNING. 12Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS BAND OF CLOUDS MAY BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED IN THE 925 TO 850 MB LAYER.
THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A CAPPING
INVERSION IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AND OBSERVED A PWAT OF 1.65
INCHES... INDICATIVE OF SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WIND FIELD OBSERVED IN THE SOUNDING WAS MORE OR
LESS LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 600 MB...HOWEVER A
LAYER OF LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WAS CONSISTENT IN THE LOW-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE.
THE RAP WAS THE ONLY MODEL THAT SEEMED TO HAVE A HINT OF THE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR WHERE IT EXISTS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE.
TAKING A CROSS SECTION OF THIS FEATURE IN THE RAP YIELDS A MID TO
LOWER LEVEL POSITIVE PV-ANOMALY WITH A SUBSTANTIAL BUBBLE AT THE
TROPOPAUSE LEVEL. THIS VERTICAL PV STRUCTURE IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF THE DIABATIC EFFECTS OF LATENT HEAT
RELEASE ON POTENTIAL VORTICITY. THAT IS...THIS IS LIKELY THE
REMNANTS OF PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT
OCCURRED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. AS FAR AS THE VORTICITY
REMNANTS OF DECAYED CONVECTION GO...THIS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX (MCV) APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AS IT IS HAVING ONLY SUBTLE
EFFECTS ON THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD. HOWEVER WITH ONLY A WEAKLY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT OBSERVED ON THE 12Z FWD RAOB...IT WILL PROBABLY
NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUR LOCALLY CALCULATED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SHOW SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION (CINH) WEAKENING FROM THIS MCV EASTWARD
ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CINH IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ON EITHER
SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY...ALLOWING FOR STRONG HEATING. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SEEMS UNLIKELY TO MIX OUT WITH A FAIRLY DEEP MOIST LAYER
IN PLACE PER THE 1.65 PWAT OBSERVED ON THE 12Z FWD RAOB. DRY AIR
DOES EXIST IN THE RAOB...BUT NOT UNTIL YOU GET ABOVE THE 700 MB
LEVEL. SURFACE BASED AND MIXED LAYER CAPE CALCULATIONS ARE ON THE
ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG NEAR THIS AREA OF WEAKENING INHIBITION.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT WEAK NATURE OF THE MCV...THE LIMITED
RESPONSE IN THE WIND FIELDS LEAVES THE AREA IN WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...ON THE ORDER OF 20 KTS USING THE STANDARD 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR CALCULATION.
AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE COVERAGE OF 20 POPS
NORTH TO A LINE FROM CISCO TO FORT WORTH TO DALLAS TO CANTON FROM
WHERE POPS WERE IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS SOMEWHAT WEAK...SO COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE...ASSUMING FORCING IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE FIRST PLACE. ASSUMING STORMS
DEVELOP...EXPECT A SINGLE TO MULTI-CELL STORM MODE...WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WINDS IN THE FORM OF STRONG
MICROBURSTS. LARGE HAIL WILL PROBABLY BE HARD TO COME BY AS
INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS ARE UNLIKELY TO LAST MUCH LONGER THAN 45
MINUTES.
THERE MAY BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A LANDSPOUT TORNADO IF THE ELEVATED
FRONT BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED AT THE SURFACE. LANDSPOUTS FORM FROM
STRETCHING VERTICAL VORTICITY RAPIDLY. THEREFORE WE WOULD NEED A
STATIONARY FRONT TO SHARPEN UP AT THE SURFACE...AND THEN NEED
STRONG UPDRAFTS TO OCCUR RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. OVERALL...NOT A
BIG THREAT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE EITHER. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE UPDATES IF
ANYTHING ELSE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 455 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014/
STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT PROBABLY HAVE DISTURBED THE
AIRMASS TOO MUCH FOR MVFR STRATUS THIS MORNING IN THE METROPLEX.
HOWEVER VFR CIGS NEAR 5000FT ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING.
THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME CUMULUS TO DEVELOP
ONCE THE SUN COMES UP...AND WE WILL NEED TO WATCH TO SEE IF THIS
CUMULUS FIELD CAN DEVELOP INTO A CEILING...BUT BASES WOULD LIKELY
BE ABOVE 2000FT.
WACO IS A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT OF A FORECAST THIS MORNING. LOW
LEVELS ARE LIKELY MORE MOIST DUE TO OVERNIGHT RAINS...AND
SOUTHERLY WARM ADVECTION MAY RETURN IN THE LOW LEVELS WHICH WOULD
CAUSE MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. WILL SHOW MVFR CIGS THERE AFTER
SUNRISE THROUGH MIDDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-20 BUT THIS CHANCE
IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN WACO TAF.
TR.92
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
FORECAST AREA CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED
THIS MORNING...BUT A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS. FOR THE FORECAST TODAY...WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MORNING SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE DFW METROPLEX. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOCATION OF THE WEAK FRONT WAS MASKED BY NUMEROUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES BUT APPEARED TO BE STATIONARY FROM NEAR TYLER TO WACO
TO LAMPASAS. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...WITH NO
REAL EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES OR WINDS TODAY OR TONIGHT. WITH UPPER
RIDGING IN PLACE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...THE RESULTING LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE...WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN 60S AND LOWER 70S INTO THE
WEEKEND.
WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS AFTER TODAY...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SEVERAL PERIODS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE CONVECTION
AND RESULTING MCS THAT IS FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS TONIGHT SHOULD TEND TO DISSIPATE AS IT SPREADS EAST AND
NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CHANCES OF ANY REMNANT SHOWERS
MAKING IT TO NORTH TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS TIME. ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN LOW STORM CHANCES ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED
RIVER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS ANOTHER
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
CONSENSUS IS THAT WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN. HOWEVER...ECMWF
HAS SHOWN SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH BRINGING A WEAK UPPER
WAVE NORTHEAST FROM MEXICO INTO NORTH TEXAS AROUND WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN LACK OF CONSENSUS ON A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD...WILL NOT PUT ANY MENTION OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
IN GENERAL...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
09
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 88 72 91 73 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
WACO, TX 89 72 91 74 91 / 20 10 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 85 66 88 70 88 / 5 10 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 87 69 92 73 90 / 5 10 10 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 86 68 89 72 89 / 10 10 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 88 72 91 74 90 / 10 10 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 87 69 90 72 90 / 20 10 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 88 70 90 72 90 / 20 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 89 71 90 73 90 / 20 10 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 87 70 91 70 91 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
241 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.UPDATE...
TO CANCEL REMAINING COUNTIES IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 289.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ROARED THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLIER TONIGHT HAS SHIFTED INTO THE COASTAL
PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. UPDATED
ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014/
AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT SOUTH OF ALL TAF
SITES. IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING AT KAUS AND KSAT/KSSF...BUT
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS
BY THE START OF THE CUURENT TAF CYCLE. WILL HANDLE THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH VCSH/VCTS. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE IMPACT THE
RAIN HAS ON THE FORMATION OF LOW-LEVEL STRATUS AND ANY POSSIBLE
FOG. HAVE PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRATUS A FEW HOURS. KAUS
WILL LIKELY HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE MORNING WITH
SATURATED SOILS AND THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...WIND
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS.
WITH MANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM TODAYS CONVECTION...CANT
RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.
HAMPSHIRE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
UPDATE...
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO CONGEAL INTO A COMPLEX OF
STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH AND HAVE
INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HRRR SEEMS TO
HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE TRENDS AND HAS MOST ACTIVITY SOUTH OF
THE CWA AFTER 8Z. OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...SEVERE CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE WITH A WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
INCREASING INHIBITION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OUT OF
THE HEAVIER STORMS...BUT STORM MOTIONS ARE BECOMING A FASTER AS
COMPLEX BECOMES DOMINATED BY COLD POOLS. SOME LOCATIONS WILL PICK
UP OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN AND THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING AT SOME POINT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LATE
TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE...WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS OVERTAKEN THE HEAT ADVISORY WITH THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
AS WELL...AND HAVE CANCELLED THE HEAT ADVISORY.
HAMPSHIRE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER ROUGHLY A PANDALE TO JUNCTION TO LLANO LINE
AS A RESULT OF OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA
WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH W TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. A BROADER SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO ENHANCE STORM POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH RES
MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING CLUSTERS OF STORMS DROPPING S/E FROM
NORTH TX INTO CENTRAL TX LATER THIS EVENING. CAPES AT OR ABOVE
4000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE SURFACE FOCUS
TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE TO PROMOTE SEVERE STORMS...A
FEW CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO. BACKED SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY COULD
MEAN THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES COULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY BEING BOOSTED BY THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
AREA THAT WOULD ORIGINATE FROM THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. HEAVY
RAIN THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SECONDARY...AS PROGRESSIVE STORM
MOTIONS OVER 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED AND THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR THE FORMATION OF AN MCS. THIS OPINION
IS FORMED BASED ON THE SPORADIC LOCATIONS OF THE 850 MB THETA-E
FIELDS WHICH SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE STORMS SHIFT EAST.
A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME SPOTTY DOWNPOURS EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR
BEFORE STABILITY ATTEMPTS TO TAKE OVER AGAIN FOR FRIDAY FRIDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
AND COULD BE TROUBLESOME ON POPS AND TEMPS IN THE LATER PERIODS.
THE NARROWNESS OF THE RIDGE MEANS THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME
OF THE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE CRISTINA COULD GET ENTRAINED INTO
THE SYSTEM. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ALREADY APPEAR TO BE HEDGING
THEIR BETS WITH THE ECMWF MID LEVEL PATTERNS LOOKING VERY
UNSTABLE OVER SOUTH TX IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
A CANADIAN/GFS BLEND IS PREFERRED FOR NOW SO AS NOT TO STRAY TOO
FAR FROM THE IDEA THAT THE RIDGE AXIS CAN HOLD TOGETHER AND KEEP
US DRY. BLENDED GUIDANCES WERE ADOPTED FOR TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE THROWN IN FOR MAINLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CLIMATE...
DRT RECORDS IN JEOPARDY
DATE HIGH YEAR
06/12 106 2001
06/13 105 1960
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 73 92 72 92 / 20 10 - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 90 71 92 71 92 / 20 10 - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 92 72 93 72 93 / 20 10 - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 71 90 70 90 / 20 10 - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 99 76 100 76 98 / 10 10 - 20 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 71 90 71 91 / 20 10 - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 94 73 95 72 96 / 10 - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 73 92 72 92 / 20 10 - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 91 73 92 73 91 / 30 - - - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 93 74 93 73 94 / 20 - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 94 74 95 74 96 / 20 - - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1228 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT SOUTH OF ALL TAF
SITES. IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING AT KAUS AND KSAT/KSSF...BUT
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS
BY THE START OF THE CUURENT TAF CYCLE. WILL HANDLE THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH VCSH/VCTS. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE IMPACT THE
RAIN HAS ON THE FORMATION OF LOW-LEVEL STRATUS AND ANY POSSIBLE
FOG. HAVE PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRATUS A FEW HOURS. KAUS
WILL LIKELY HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE MORNING WITH
SATURATED SOILS AND THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...WIND
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS.
WITH MANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM TODAYS CONVECTION...CANT
RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
UPDATE...
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO CONGEAL INTO A COMPLEX OF
STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH AND HAVE
INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HRRR SEEMS TO
HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE TRENDS AND HAS MOST ACTIVITY SOUTH OF
THE CWA AFTER 8Z. OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...SEVERE CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE WITH A WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
INCREASING INHIBITION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OUT OF
THE HEAVIER STORMS...BUT STORM MOTIONS ARE BECOMING A FASTER AS
COMPLEX BECOMES DOMINATED BY COLD POOLS. SOME LOCATIONS WILL PICK
UP OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN AND THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING AT SOME POINT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LATE
TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE...WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS OVERTAKEN THE HEAT ADVISORY WITH THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
AS WELL...AND HAVE CANCELLED THE HEAT ADVISORY.
HAMPSHIRE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER ROUGHLY A PANDALE TO JUNCTION TO LLANO LINE
AS A RESULT OF OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA
WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH W TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. A BROADER SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO ENHANCE STORM POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH RES
MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING CLUSTERS OF STORMS DROPPING S/E FROM
NORTH TX INTO CENTRAL TX LATER THIS EVENING. CAPES AT OR ABOVE
4000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE SURFACE FOCUS
TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE TO PROMOTE SEVERE STORMS...A
FEW CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO. BACKED SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY COULD
MEAN THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES COULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY BEING BOOSTED BY THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
AREA THAT WOULD ORIGINATE FROM THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. HEAVY
RAIN THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SECONDARY...AS PROGRESSIVE STORM
MOTIONS OVER 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED AND THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR THE FORMATION OF AN MCS. THIS OPINION
IS FORMED BASED ON THE SPORADIC LOCATIONS OF THE 850 MB THETA-E
FIELDS WHICH SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE STORMS SHIFT EAST.
A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME SPOTTY DOWNPOURS EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR
BEFORE STABILITY ATTEMPTS TO TAKE OVER AGAIN FOR FRIDAY FRIDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
AND COULD BE TROUBLESOME ON POPS AND TEMPS IN THE LATER PERIODS.
THE NARROWNESS OF THE RIDGE MEANS THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME
OF THE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE CRISTINA COULD GET ENTRAINED INTO
THE SYSTEM. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ALREADY APPEAR TO BE HEDGING
THEIR BETS WITH THE ECMWF MID LEVEL PATTERNS LOOKING VERY
UNSTABLE OVER SOUTH TX IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
A CANADIAN/GFS BLEND IS PREFERRED FOR NOW SO AS NOT TO STRAY TOO
FAR FROM THE IDEA THAT THE RIDGE AXIS CAN HOLD TOGETHER AND KEEP
US DRY. BLENDED GUIDANCES WERE ADOPTED FOR TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE THROWN IN FOR MAINLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CLIMATE...
DRT RECORDS IN JEOPARDY
DATE HIGH YEAR
06/12 106 2001
06/13 105 1960
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 92 72 92 74 / 10 - - - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 92 71 92 73 / 10 - - - 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 93 72 93 74 / 10 - - - 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 90 70 90 73 / 10 - - - 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 100 76 98 77 / 10 - 20 - 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 90 71 91 74 / 10 - - - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 72 96 75 / - - - - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 92 72 92 74 / 10 - - - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 92 73 91 76 / - - - 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 93 73 94 75 / - - - - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 95 74 96 77 / - - - - 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
153 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY THEN ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT. THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANGE IN AIRMASS FOR
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO
VALLEY...AND NOSING ITS WAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT FRIDAY...
LIKE THE WAY MESO MODELS ARE HANDLING THE APPROACHING FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PCPN SO WILL USE A BLEND OF HRRR AND LOCAL WRF TO
FRESHEN THE GRIDS...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES ATTM. SAT PICS SHOW
MORNING LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND RADAR JUST HAS A FEW ISOLATED BLIPS FROM THE NC MTNS
UP THROUGH THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. BELIEVE WE WILL DEVELOP SOME
MODEST CAPE VALUES AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND APPROACHING FRONT
INTERACTING WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL GET SOME CONVECTION
GOING. WIND FIELD IS QUITE LIGHT AND DO NOT SEE A LARGE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...THEY ARE CURRENTLY FROM
A NWLY DIRECTION AND THIS WILL LOOKS TO LIMIT PCPN EAST OF THE
RIDGE UNTIL ENERGY STARTS TO INTERACT WITH SFC TROF FURTHER OUT
INTO THE PIEDMONT. PWATS ARE STILL ELEVATED AND STORMS ONLY LOOK
TO BE MOVING AROUND 10KTS SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR HEAVY
RAINERS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAD HEAVY RAIN YDA.
PREVIOUS AFD...
A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF IS MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
ONTARIO CANADA...SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TODAY...CROSSING
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...REACHING THE EAST COAST
BY SATURDAY MORNING. PASSAGE THE FRONT WILL SIGNAL A CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...DEWPOINTS TRENDING DOWN AND SIGNALING A TRANSITION TO
FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
UNTIL THE FRONT CROSSES OUR FORECAST AREA...WILL HAVE TO CONTEND
WITH ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE BEFORE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MOUNTAINS...AND LOW TO
MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD TREND
A FEW DEGREES COOLER PER PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT STILL
RELATIVELY MILD...AND PLENTY COMFORTABLE FOR THE VIEWING OF THE
STRAWBERRY MOON. THIS FULL MOON COINCIDES WITH FRIDAY THE 13TH...
A RARE COINCIDENCE...SO GET OUT AND TAKE A LOOKSEE. IF YOU DON`T
CHECK THIS OFF YOUR BUCKET LIST...ODDS ARE IT WILL GO UNCHECKED AS
MOST OF US WON`T SEE AGAIN IN OUR LIFE TIME. THE NEXT OCCURRENCE
OF A FULL MOON ON FRIDAY THE 13TH...AUGUST OF 2049.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND
WEDGE DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. COME MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BRING THE RETURN OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING
PULSE STORMS.
MODELS ARE PUSHING FRIDAY/S COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA AND INTO
NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED 85H BOUNDARY MAY STOP NEAR
THE VA/NC BORDER SATURDAY THEN RETREAT NORTH STARTING SUNDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS RETREATING BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PULSE STORMS TO DEVELOP. SUNDAY/S PULSE STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM BLUEFIELD WV TO WEST JEFFERSON NC. WITH THE BOUNDARY
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...MOUNTAIN PULSE STORMS WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON. GOING INTO THE EVENING...THESE STORMS
WILL DRIFT INTO THE FOOTHILLS THEN FADE WITH LOSE OF HEATING.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE REGION MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 5F ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 213 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET A GOOD SHOT OF SOUPY
SUMMERTIME WEATHER. RIDGING ALOFT WILL COUPLE WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TO PUMP WARM AND HUMID AIR
INTO THE SERN US. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MID WEEK...AND NOT TOO
MUCH COOLER WEST OF THE RIDGE. COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S IT WILL BE QUITE STICKY INDEED. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
BRING US MORE AND MORE INSTABILITY AND WE CAN EXPECT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
THEN THINGS START TO GO SIDEWAYS AS MODEL GUIDANCE REALLY STARTS TO
DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS DEEPER INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EURO AND
SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE FAVORING A BLOCKY PATTERN WITH A
DEEPENING TROF IN THE WEST AND CORRESPONDING RIDGE IN THE EAST.
GFS AND SOME OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE
RESULT IS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS WE GET
TO THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS RESULTS IN THE GFS BEING RATHER
BULLISH WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF AIRMASS...WHILE THE EURO IS HAPPY TO KEEP US
IN HIGH THETA-E AIR INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE
TO SEE HOW LATER MODEL RUNS PLAY OUT AS THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT FRIDAY...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SAT AND RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TO POP...MAINLY NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER. ACTIVITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW...AND FURTHER EAST NEAR THE SFC TROF OVER THE
PIEDMONT. DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW SHOULD HELP LIMIT ACTIVITY IN BETWEEN.
EXPECTING VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
TAF PERIOD WILL AND WILL USE VCTS UNTIL THE STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW
TIMEABLE DETAILS.
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT NW FLOW AND DOWNSLOPE WILL BRING VFR TO
KROA...KLYH...AND KDAN THOUGH IF A STORM GOES DIRECTLY OVER THESE
SITES THERE MAY BE SOME FOR LATE. FOR KBCB/KBLF/KLWB EXPECT SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE IN NW UPSLOPE WEST OF THE RIDGE TO KEEP SOME
LOWER CLOUDS AROUND AND EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP. VFR ALL SITES BY
TOMORROW MORNING WITH GOOD CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
AFTER A GOOD WEEKEND FOR AVIATION...WE WILL GET INTO A SUMMERTIME
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK. EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH
FOG/LOW CLOUDS AT NIGHT...ESP FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WEST. BEST
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING
AFTER FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF AND BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...MBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1112 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY THEN ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT. THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANGE IN AIRMASS FOR
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO
VALLEY...AND NOSING ITS WAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM EDT FRIDAY...
LIKE THE WAY MESO MODELS ARE HANDLING THE APPROACHING FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PCPN SO WILL USE A BLEND OF HRRR AND LOCAL WRF TO
FRESHEN THE GRIDS...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES ATTM. SAT PICS SHOW
MORNING LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND RADAR JUST HAS A FEW ISOLATED BLIPS FROM THE NC MTNS
UP THROUGH THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. BELIEVE WE WILL DEVELOP SOME
MODEST CAPE VALUES AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND APPROACHING FRONT
INTERACTING WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL GET SOME CONVECTION
GOING. WIND FIELD IS QUITE LIGHT AND DO NOT SEE A LARGE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...THEY ARE CURRENTLY FROM
A NWLY DIRECTION AND THIS WILL LOOKS TO LIMIT PCPN EAST OF THE
RIDGE UNTIL ENERGY STARTS TO INTERACT WITH SFC TROF FURTHER OUT
INTO THE PIEDMONT. PWATS ARE STILL ELEVATED AND STORMS ONLY LOOK
TO BE MOVING AROUND 10KTS SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR HEAVY
RAINERS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAD HEAVY RAIN YDA.
PREVIOUS AFD...
A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF IS MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
ONTARIO CANADA...SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TODAY...CROSSING
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...REACHING THE EAST COAST
BY SATURDAY MORNING. PASSAGE THE FRONT WILL SIGNAL A CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...DEWPOINTS TRENDING DOWN AND SIGNALING A TRANSITION TO
FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
UNTIL THE FRONT CROSSES OUR FORECAST AREA...WILL HAVE TO CONTEND
WITH ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE BEFORE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S MOUNTAINS...AND LOW TO
MID 80S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD TREND
A FEW DEGREES COOLER PER PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...BUT STILL
RELATIVELY MILD...AND PLENTY COMFORTABLE FOR THE VIEWING OF THE
STRAWBERRY MOON. THIS FULL MOON COINCIDES WITH FRIDAY THE 13TH...
A RARE COINCIDENCE...SO GET OUT AND TAKE A LOOKSEE. IF YOU DON`T
CHECK THIS OFF YOUR BUCKET LIST...ODDS ARE IT WILL GO UNCHECKED AS
MOST OF US WON`T SEE AGAIN IN OUR LIFE TIME. THE NEXT OCCURRENCE
OF A FULL MOON ON FRIDAY THE 13TH...AUGUST OF 2049.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 413 AM EDT FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND
WEDGE DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN
IN THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. COME MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BRING THE RETURN OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING
PULSE STORMS.
MODELS ARE PUSHING FRIDAY/S COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA AND INTO
NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED 85H BOUNDARY MAY STOP NEAR
THE VA/NC BORDER SATURDAY THEN RETREAT NORTH STARTING SUNDAY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS RETREATING BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PULSE STORMS TO DEVELOP. SUNDAY/S PULSE STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM BLUEFIELD WV TO WEST JEFFERSON NC. WITH THE BOUNDARY
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...MOUNTAIN PULSE STORMS WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON. GOING INTO THE EVENING...THESE STORMS
WILL DRIFT INTO THE FOOTHILLS THEN FADE WITH LOSE OF HEATING.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE REGION MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 5F ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 213 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET A GOOD SHOT OF SOUPY
SUMMERTIME WEATHER. RIDGING ALOFT WILL COUPLE WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TO PUMP WARM AND HUMID AIR
INTO THE SERN US. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MID WEEK...AND NOT TOO
MUCH COOLER WEST OF THE RIDGE. COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S IT WILL BE QUITE STICKY INDEED. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
BRING US MORE AND MORE INSTABILITY AND WE CAN EXPECT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
THEN THINGS START TO GO SIDEWAYS AS MODEL GUIDANCE REALLY STARTS TO
DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS DEEPER INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EURO AND
SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE FAVORING A BLOCKY PATTERN WITH A
DEEPENING TROF IN THE WEST AND CORRESPONDING RIDGE IN THE EAST.
GFS AND SOME OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE
RESULT IS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS WE GET
TO THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS RESULTS IN THE GFS BEING RATHER
BULLISH WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF AIRMASS...WHILE THE EURO IS HAPPY TO KEEP US
IN HIGH THETA-E AIR INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE
TO SEE HOW LATER MODEL RUNS PLAY OUT AS THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 813 AM EDT FRIDAY...
AREAS OF MVFR FOG THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY 14Z/10AM. AFT
14Z...DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SCT-BKN
CUMULUS WITH CLOUD BASES 030-050KFT. DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHRA/TSRA
WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST COVERAGE DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF 2P-6P. COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA PROVIDING TRANSITION TO A DRIER
AIRMASS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ASIDE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
WEEKEND.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION...
PROMOTING RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...MBS/PM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
217 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY THEN
ACROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REST
OF THE EAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1121 PM EDT THURSDAY...
ADJUSTED POPS DOWN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
BLUEFIELD-WYTHEVILLE-BOONE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PIEDMONT OF
VIRGINIA. THE TREND FOR DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
AS OF 805 PM EDT THURSDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINS. BOTH THE HRRR AND RNK WRFARW KEEP SCATTERED CONVECTION
GOING TO AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AND TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS FOR LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS.
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOR LAST OBS. HELD ON TO
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND FOG.
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...
EASTERN EDGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD BEEN GRADUALLY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EXTENDED FROM GREENBRIER
COUNTY TO WATAUGA COUNTY. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE CENTERED OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST TIP OF VIRGINIA. AS
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO WILL THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS....ALTHOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL
BE LESS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND NOON ON FRIDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD ALSO DEVELOPED
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY WAS EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT SPC MESOANALYSIS HAD BEEN SHOWING HIGHER
DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES IN THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS IN THAT REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH.
A SECOND SHORT WAVE...THAT WAS CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROLONG THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL LIMIT THE HEATING...INSTABILITY AND
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. MAV GUIDANCE HAD
REASONABLE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...
LOOKING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN ENTERING OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...USHERING
WITH IT HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR. WILL SEE MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY
FIZZLE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...BUT WILL STILL
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER DARK...MAINLY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...AS THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
MANAGE TO COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...HOWEVER
BELIEVE WE WILL STILL HOLD ONTO LOW 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER PATTERN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINING A
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST. WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...AND THE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS DURING EARLY EVENING...ALTHOUGH ANY CONVECTION
WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO AVERAGE FOR MID JUNE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S WEST
TO THE MID 80S EAST...AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOW
60S.
FOR SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GULF...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST...COMING
TO REST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY. AS THE HIGH
MOVES...WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTERLY...AND WILL
BEGIN TO DRAW ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. RIDGING WILL
MAKE FOR A LITTLE MORE HEATING AND INSTABILITY...AND EXPECT A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 80S MOST LOCATIONS WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET A GOOD SHOT OF SOUPY SUMMERTIME WEATHER.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL COUPLE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TO
PUMP WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE SERN US. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MID WEEK...AND NOT TOO MUCH COOLER
WEST OF THE RIDGE. COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S IT WILL BE QUITE STICKY
INDEED. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BRING US MORE AND MORE INSTABILITY AND WE CAN
EXPECT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
THEN THINGS START TO GO SIDEWAYS AS MODEL GUIDANCE REALLY STARTS TO DIVERGE IN
SOLUTIONS DEEPER INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EURO AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
FAVORING A BLOCKY PATTERN WITH A DEEPENING TROF IN THE WEST AND CORRESPONDING
RIDGE IN THE EAST. GFS AND SOME OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE.
THE RESULT IS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS WE GET TO THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS RESULTS IN THE GFS BEING RATHER BULLISH WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF AIRMASS...WHILE THE EURO
IS HAPPY TO KEEP US IN HIGH THETA-E AIR INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW LATER MODEL RUNS PLAY OUT AS
THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR FORECAST
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...
AREAS OF MVFR FOG AND SCT-BKN STRATUS WITH CIGS BLO 1KFT POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE VALLEYS OVER AND WEST OF
THE MTNS...CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS LOW BUT WILL ALLOW FOR A 1-3 HOUR
PERIOD FOR TEMPORARY CONDITIONS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.
ANY STRATUS AND FOG THAT FORMS...SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WESTERLY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL MAINTAIN RISK FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL ITS PASSAGE TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY. THIS CHANGE IN
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN FEWER CLOUDS FOR THE WEEKEND AND LITTLE OR
NO THREAT OF DEEP CONVETION. AS SUCH...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION...PROMOTING RETURN OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK/RCS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
839 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will impact the region
every afternoon and evening through Tuesday with temperatures
remaining on the cool side. Temperatures will then warm for the
rest of the week, with just a few mountain showers late in the
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: Satellite imagery shows an upper level front over NW
Washington dropping southeast. This will result in plenty of mid
and high level clouds over the Inland Northwest tonight. In
addition, large scale lift will be on the increase near the
Canadian border. This combined with weak-moderate mid level
instability with 700-500mb Theta-e lapse rates between 0-1C/km
should keep showers going through the night over the northern
mountains. The 00z GFS, NAM, and HRRR are in general agreement
with this idea. Areas near the Canadian Border will be most
favored such as Curlew, Metaline Falls, Northport, and Bonners
Ferry. Radar as of 830 pm was already showing signs of this with
increasing returns around Oroville and Chesaw despite the setting
sun when showers typically fizzle out. The forecast has been
updated to increase precipitation chances overnight for the
northern mountains...and adjust sky cover upward a bit over most
of Central and Eastern Washington. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: An unstable atmosphere over Northeast Washington mainly
north of KGEG will result in showers and isolated thunderstorms
this evening...although with a decreasing trend between 2-6z. Then
the next system will spread into the area on Sunday. Afternoon
heating will generate another round of showers and thunderstorms
on Sunday mainly over the mountains...especially north of the
Columbia Basin. CIGS over the eastern TAF sites have risen to VFR
with models showing VFR conditions likely persisting through 00z
Monday. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 47 66 45 65 45 66 / 10 30 20 20 20 40
Coeur d`Alene 47 65 45 64 43 65 / 20 40 30 40 30 50
Pullman 44 64 42 62 41 64 / 10 30 20 20 20 30
Lewiston 51 72 51 69 49 71 / 0 20 20 20 20 30
Colville 50 65 46 63 44 70 / 40 50 40 50 50 30
Sandpoint 47 64 47 62 42 63 / 30 50 40 50 50 50
Kellogg 45 62 45 61 42 63 / 30 50 50 50 40 60
Moses Lake 53 73 49 73 50 75 / 0 10 10 40 30 10
Wenatchee 55 69 51 71 53 74 / 10 10 10 20 20 10
Omak 50 69 48 70 48 75 / 20 30 30 40 30 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
830 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER NW OREGON
TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS. THIS SECOND TROUGH WILL FORM A CUT-OFF LOW OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TRIGGER A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF SALEM MONDAY AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS
FROM THIS LOW ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN
RAIN WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHT WARMING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A SHORTWAVE OFF THE WA COAST
THIS EVNEING CROSSING 130W AS IT DIGS SE. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE
LIGHT...SHOWERS ON RADAR APPEARED TO BE INCREASING SLOWLY, AND A FEW
OBSERVATION POINTS HAVE FINALLY SHOWN REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN. CLOUDS
ON SATELLITE LOOKING A LITTLE THICKER JUST OFF THE WA AND N OREGON
COAST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...SO WILL BUMP UP POPS A LITTLE FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AND EXPAND THE COVERAGE FURTHER S.
REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED... AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OVER
THE PACIFIC NW LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...DRAGGING A WEAK FRONT WITH
IT. CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES
SOUTHWARD...AND FORM A CUT OFF LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
EASTERN OREGON ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE A THREAT FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
A COLD POOL WITH MODELED 500MB TEMPS AROUND -22C WILL BRUSH SW
WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING INSTABILITY
OVER THE AREA...AND THE THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. MODELED
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A CAP IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE MARGINAL CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SIMILAR
SET UP AS LAST WEEK IN WHICH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SPROUTED OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF CLARK COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL AND APPROACH PASS ELEVATIONS ON MONDAY...BUT
RECENT WARM WEATHER AND WARM ROAD SURFACES WILL LIKELY LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS
INLAND. HARTLEY
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
PACIFIC NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST.
SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW MAY GENERATE SHOWERS ACROSS NW
OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A
DRY DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S
ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE NE PACIFIC
THURSDAY...SENDING SPOKES OF ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE FIRST SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A
SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL WEAKEN BEFORE IT PUSHES ONSHORE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MAY ENHANCE CLOUDS FOR
FRIDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HARTLEY
&&
.AVIATION...MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTH COAST AREA. LOTS OF CLOUDS
BUT PRIMARILY VFR...BUT WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR ON THE NORTH COAST.
THE NEXT FRONT REACHES THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. THE WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES INLAND...BUT THE INLAND TAF SITES MAY BE A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS FROM ROUGHLY 12Z TO 18Z SUN. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ONSHORE TOMORROW.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ABOUT A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS IN BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TOMORROW. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MIGHT MOVE THROUGH TERMINAL TOMORROW. PYLE/MH
&&
.MARINE...SEAS ARE AROUND 5 FT THIS EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW
MODERATE W-NW SWELLS PASSING THROUGH THE WATERS. VARYING DEGREES
OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS...EXPECTED OVER
THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE FULL MOON IS GENERATING STRONG TIDAL FLUCTUATIONS...
RESULTING IN VERY STRONG FLOOD AND EBB CURRENTS.
THEREFORE...CONDITIONS ON THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR WILL BE HAZARDOUS
DURING THE VERY STRONG MORNING EBBS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALSO OF
NOTE ARE THE SIGNIFICANT MINUS TIDES EXPECTED AFTER THE EBBS ON
THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS. PYLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM
TO 9 AM PDT SUNDAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
501 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will impact the region
every afternoon and evening through Tuesday with temperatures
remaining on the cool side. Temperatures will then warm for the
rest of the week, with just a few mountain showers late in the
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: Minor update made to increase POPs and extend mention of
isolated thunderstorms into early this evening for Northeast
Washington Mountains, as well as to increase POPs for the Camas
Prairie based on latest satellite and radar trends. Otherwise
remainder of previous discussion below remains valid.
Tonight through Sunday...Convection has begun to expand in
coverage by mid-afternoon...at least over sections of northeast
and north central Washington where there is the most diurnal
heating. Expansive cloud cover over the extreme eastern portions
of Washington and most of the Idaho Panhandle...including the
Spokane area ...Palouse...and Sandpoint has had a much tougher
time generating showers due to limited heating and resultant
destabilization. Looks like most of the activity this evening will
focus around the current batch of showers and isolated thunder and
whether they can successfully migrate southeastward out of this
region of maximum instability/higher terrain and into a region
thats much more stable. The HRRR seems to think so...but its not
handling the expansive clouds and cooler air over the eastern
sections of the forecast area well so think its overstated.
Nonetheless will keep the mention of showers into the early
evening generally north and east of a line from Omak to
Deary...with the majority of the showers expected to remain near
the Canadian border in NC and NE Washington. The trend for showers
should be a decreasing one as the next shortwave trough digs into
the BC coast with warming temperatures aloft ahead of it. This
should effectively increase the potential instability from the
northwest overnight. Suspect things will really taper off in the
overnight hours...while any clearing will contribute to the
formation of fog across the valleys of northeast Washington and
possibly into north Idaho.
For Sunday...we will see the chance of showers and thunderstorms
increase once again as the BC shortwave trough digs into the NW
corner of Washington and pushes an upper level front through the
region. The front should cross the Inland NW in the morning...with
little fanfare other than an increasing blanket of mid and high
level clouds. Behind the front we will see Lapse rates drop as a
result of daytime heating. This will bring MUCAPE values into the
500-1000 j/kg range. Model soundings show this instability will be
deep enough to support thunderstorms. Based on the location of the
deepest instability and southwest mid-level winds...most of the
thunderstorms will focus near the Canadian border and could impact
locations such as Republic...Colville...and Priest Lake. fx
Sunday night to Tuesday: An upper trough digs into the Pacific
Northwest. This will provide some with additional shower and
thunderstorm chances, relatively cool temperatures and breezy
conditions. Sunday night a cold front pushes east. A mid-level
disturbance comes on its heels and migrates across eastern WA and
north ID. At the same time the center of the upper low moves into
the Cascades overnight. This set-up provides some decent lift
across the region. Surface-based instability wanes through the
evening, but some elevated CAPE and a pocket favorable high level
total totals linger across north-central and northeast WA and
north ID. In tandem with a surface-trough arched from north ID to
central WA, this will provide continuing shower chances through
the night across the Cascade crest, the Okanogan Highlands to
northern Panhandle, as well as across the central and southern
Panhandle. Chances wane in the evening across the Spokane/C`DA
area and Palouse.
By early Monday the upper low is positioned near the east slopes
of the Cascades, before pivoting toward central/southern Panhandle
Monday night. Through this period a surface trough remains arched
from north ID to central WA. With lapse rates steepening and
convective instability increasing through the afternoon
(especially over central and northeast WA and north ID) these
features will provide a threat of showers throughout much of the
region. The lowest threat appears over the Palouse/L-C valley
through lower elevations of the central Panhandle where models
show a relative minimum in moisture/dew point values/instability.
The aforementioned showers will be possible early in the day
across the northern mountains and across the northern Basin
through Waterville Plateau, but the threat will increase here and
across the region in the afternoon and wane in coverage overnight.
There will also be some threat of thunderstorms in the afternoon
and early evening. The primary threat will be across north-central
and northeast WA and the northern Panhandle. Some thunder is also
possible near the Camas Prairie, but at this point the better
instability in this region remains southward toward the
Clearwaters. As for winds, gradients and mixing increases Sunday
night into Monday, starting from the west. This supports some
breezy conditions. Speeds are generally in the 10 to 20 mph range,
with gusts in the 15 to 25 mph range in the early afternoon and
early evening hours. Value abate some for the overnight/early
morning hours.
Going into Tuesday the upper trough axis shifts east and the
Inland Northwest moves to a north-northeast flow. A wrap-around
trough/deformation axis begins to sag in from the north (somewhat
similar to the evolution of the most recent system). As such this
will continue to provide a rain threat across the eastern third of
WA and north ID, while central WA to the Cascades will have
smaller threat. I increased PoPs for this time frame across the
east. There is some convective instability in the afternoon across
northern WA and the ID Panhandle, so I have a slight thunder
chance here too. /J. Cote`
Tuesday night through Saturday...The region will transition to
drier and warmer weather as an upper trough moves into southeast
Idaho. A shortwave ridge will be in control of the weather pattern
at least through Thursday night, until the next Pacific trough
approaches the Pacific Northwest. Medium range model solutions
diverge on the strength and track of the upper trough as it swings
inland on Friday. The more favored areas will be the Cascade crest
and the northern mountains but the 12Z GFS brings the base of the
trough through central WA which would bring the precipitation
farther south into the basin. For now the Friday/Saturday forecast
will lean toward the ECMWF with the focus on the northern tier.
Temperature will warm to slightly above normal readings with
valleys in the upper 70s to mid 80s for the end of the workweek.
Winds will be mainly light and terrain driven except for breezy
conditions that will follow a cold front on Friday. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
00z TAFS: An unstable atmosphere over Northeast Washington mainly
north of KGEG will result in showers and isolated thunderstorms
this evening...although with a decreasing trend between 2-6z. Then
the next system will spread into the area on Sunday. Afternoon
heating will generate another round of showers and thunderstorms
on Sunday mainly over the mountains...especially north of the
Columbia Basin. CIGS over the eastern TAF sites have risen to VFR
with models showing VFR conditions likely persisting through 00z
Monday. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 47 66 45 65 45 66 / 10 30 20 20 20 40
Coeur d`Alene 47 65 45 64 43 65 / 20 40 30 40 30 50
Pullman 44 64 42 62 41 64 / 0 30 20 20 20 30
Lewiston 51 72 51 69 49 71 / 0 20 20 20 20 30
Colville 50 65 46 63 44 70 / 60 50 40 50 50 30
Sandpoint 47 64 47 62 42 63 / 30 50 40 50 50 50
Kellogg 45 62 45 61 42 63 / 30 50 50 50 40 60
Moses Lake 53 73 49 73 50 75 / 0 10 10 40 30 10
Wenatchee 55 69 51 71 53 74 / 0 10 10 20 20 10
Omak 50 69 48 70 48 75 / 0 30 30 40 30 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1157 AM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will prowl the region
every afternoon and evening through Tuesday with temperatures
remaining on the cool side. Temperatures will then warm for the
rest of the week, with just a few mountain
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...Moisture continues to wrap around deep upper level
low centered over north central Montana as of late morning. The
latest satellite pix show clouds firmly entrenched east of a line
from Republic to Ritzville to the Blue Mountains. Cloud tops
within this cloud bank have generally warmed over the past several
hours and the showers or rain have become less widespread. The
latest radar imagery shows most of the showers now were located
over the central Idaho Panhandle moving to the southeast. The
decreasing shower trend should begin to reverse this afternoon as
solar heating begins to destabilize the atmosphere...however just
how effectively it will be able to do that is the question as the
cloud deck is quite expansive. The HRRR is sticking to its guns
that convection should blossom later today with said heating...but
I`m not all that confident...other than along the western edge of
the clouds...i.e western Stevens...Ferry...and eastern Okanogan
counties. These locations are already beginning to see some decent
cumulus buildups and should easily see shower development. Cannot
rule out thunder as well as MUCAPES are still forecast to peak
around 500 j/kg with cloud top temps just a bit colder than -20c.
Under the cloud blanket the confidence in thunder is much lower
due to lower insolation and subsequently cooler surface temps. We
will scale back thunder some over the far eastern portion of
forecast area and expand it a little farther to the west.
Remainder of forecast looks good...with minor temperature
tweaks...including slightly cooler max temps over the far eastern
zones due to persistent cloud cover. fx
&&
.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: Conditions have become showery vs widespread stratiform
rain over the extreme eastern portion of WA and the ID Panhandle.
Conditions at PUW SFF COE and GEG have responded with slowly
improving CIGS and VSBYS. We would expect all these sites to see
MVFR cigs improve to VFR levels between 20-22z based on
conditional climatology and radar/satellite trends. Confidence is
higher for GEG than at COE as cigs looks like they are lifting
over eastern Columbia Basin. Overnight all sites will see dry VFR
conditions which should persist through the end of the forecast
period. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 64 48 66 44 65 46 / 20 20 30 20 30 30
Coeur d`Alene 59 47 64 44 64 44 / 60 20 40 30 30 30
Pullman 62 45 64 41 62 42 / 20 10 30 20 30 30
Lewiston 68 51 71 51 69 50 / 10 10 20 20 30 30
Colville 65 47 65 46 64 45 / 50 40 40 40 40 40
Sandpoint 59 47 64 48 63 42 / 70 30 40 40 50 50
Kellogg 58 46 62 45 61 43 / 70 30 40 50 40 40
Moses Lake 78 50 74 49 74 50 / 10 0 10 10 10 20
Wenatchee 75 55 71 52 71 54 / 0 0 10 10 20 20
Omak 78 48 70 47 71 49 / 10 10 30 30 30 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
329 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL EASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN OREGON EXITS THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT WARMER
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN OF EARLY JUNE IS NOW PUSHING EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST.
QUITE A BIT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND SEVERAL WEAKENING
DISTURBANCES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. RADAR SHOWING
PRECIPITATION PUSHING ONSHORE INTO THE COAST RANGE WHILE ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION IS FOUND PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON AND
TOWARD OUR AREA IN THE DEFORMATION BAND. DECENT PRECIP RATES OF 0.1
INCH PER HOUR OR MORE IN THE CASCADES AND FOOTHILLS.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW KICKS INTO FAR EASTERN
OREGON TODAY AND OUT OF THE STATE TONIGHT. HAVE HIGH POPS THIS
MORNING FOR THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE STILL MODERATE AT THIS TIME...SO CONTINUED MODERATE
RAINFALL AT TIMES WITH VERY HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. THIS AFTERNOON THE
DEFORMATION BAND WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES THOUGH WILL
HAVE TO CARRY LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FARTHER WEST AS ADDITIONAL
ENERGY SLIDES DOWN THE COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRYING FOR MANY
AREAS.
THE UPPER LOW LOSES ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT A NW
FLOW SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OUT AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA NEAR THE ALUETIAN ISLANDS. THIS WAVE WILL GRAZE THE NW
CORNER OF THE AREA WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH THE
WAVE DAMPENING AS IT PUSHES SE AND RUNS INTO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...THE EFFECTS WILL BE MINIMAL OTHER THAN TO INCREASE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXCEPT IN THE NORTHERN TIER WHERE SOME LIGHTER
RAIN IS EXPECTED.
MEANWHILE...THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW WILL PUSH TO THE B.C. COAST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY SLIDE DOWN THE COAST SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS ELONGATES INTO FROM NORTHERN B.C.
INTO EASTERN OREGON MAINTAINING NW FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A FEW DISTURBANCES THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND
MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.SOUTHWARD EXTENT IS STILL IN
QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN MAINTAINING ONSHORE FLOW FOR
PLENTY OF AT LEAST MORNING CLOUDS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.
KMD
.LONG TERM....SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THIS LOW WILL GIVE US
FITS FORECAST-WISE FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
ENSEMBLES AND RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKE THE
PREVIOUS 2 RUNS OF THE ECMWF TO SLOW THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SECOND
UPPER LOW. MADE CHANGES TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM AS BEGAN TO PUSH THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF COOLER AND
SHOWERY WEATHER AT TIMES...THOUGH ARE KEEPING POPS MODEST AS MOISTURE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW. THE GENERAL IDEA BEYOND TUESDAY IS FOR
DRYING AND MAYBE SOME WARMING...THOUGH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT MUCH BEYOND COOLING TEMPS
SOME WITH MOST MODELS GENERALLY DRY. KMD
&&
.AVIATION...POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND TO THE EAST LATER FRI
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AROUND 2000 FT...AND GENERALLY MVFR ALONG THE
COAST WITH POCKETS OF LOCAL IFR...THROUGH AROUND 18Z.
THEREAFTER...MIX OF MVFR AND VFR...BECOMING PREDOMINATELY VFR
ACROSS THE AREA BY 20Z.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR IN POST FRONTAL SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. ABOUT 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING 10Z-18Z
FRI. SHOWERS DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR
BY 19Z-20Z FRI. CULLEN
&&
.MARINE...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH INLAND AS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS OFFSHORE. WIND GUSTS HAVE INCREASED TO 25 KT AT BUOY 46089
OVER THE LAST HOUR...AND BASED UPON AN ASCAT PASS AND SHIP
OBS...ALONG WITH MODEL GUIDANCE...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT
GUSTS IN THIS RANGE OVER THE OUTER WATERS N OF NEWPORT THROUGH
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN IS BEYOND
30 NM AND N OF CASCADE HEAD.
SWELL BEING GENERATED OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS LIKELY REMAIN 8 TO 10 FT.
WITH DOMINANT PERIOD AROUND 9 SECONDS...HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALSO...CONDITIONS ON THE COLUMBIA
RIVER BAR WITH BE ROUGH DURING THE EBBS GIVEN THE STRONG PORTION
OF THE TIDAL CYCLE. CULLEN
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 7 AM PDT
THIS MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 PM
THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
227 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled and cooler than normal conditions will envelop the
region today with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Another low pressure system arriving on
Sunday will prolong these unsettled conditions through Tuesday
before a drying and warming trend develops by the middle of next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Friday and Saturday: A broad area of low pressure has shifted into
the Pac NW and will slowly track to the east during the next 24-36
hours. While the potential for strong thunderstorms has
diminished...a cool and unsettled weather pattern will remain in
place through much of the period. The main upper-level circulation
currently resides over the Dalles as of 2AM and will track to the
east/southeast setting up somewhere between Lewiston and McCall,
ID by Friday evening before ejecting into eastern Montana midday
on Saturday. There is a well defined trowal structure to the storm
system which currently wraps through Wrn MT around the eastern
periphery of the low...southern BC around the northern
periphery...then bends back into the northern Cascades on its
northwestern flank. This axis of higher theta-e air will be the
main focus for precipitation...potentially steady at times. As the
low tracks to the E/SE Friday, the moisture axis will get pulled
from northern and central WA eastward through Ern WA and Nrn ID.
Meanwhile...the main cold pool crossing through SE WA and the
lower ID Panhandle will help destabilize the atmosphere leading to
a secondary precipitation mechanism. Locations from the Blues to
Mullan and points south that are under the coolest 500mb
temperatures will stand the best chance for afternoon
thunderstorms. But here is where it gets more complicated. Between
these features, there is a residual dry slot (main reasoning for
the void in thunderstorm activity Thursday for the Spokane-CDA)
This will create an area with the least amount of cloud cover and
should also promote isolated afternoon showers largely driven by
heating of the day. This will change as the trowal airstream
shifts east this evening but for today...it should mainly be a hit
or miss type shower day. Cloud cover should be too prevalent
directly under the main trowal airstream for thunder but any
clearing/heating on its outer fringes would increase the chances
for thunder. Overall, a messy precipitation pattern is in store
for the Inland NW today. Winds will remain breezy across much of
the Basin...Palouse...West Plains and Wenatchee Area. The good
news...much cooler temperatures will keep humidities significantly
higher with very little concern for critical fire wx conditions.
The threat for precipitation will wane across the Cascades and western
Basin Friday night into Saturday but will increase for Ern WA and
Nrn ID as the storm system continues to drift east and the wrap
around moisture gets pulled east. Steady rain Friday night and
Saturday morning will transition to showers by Saturday afternoon
with the main precipitation threat east of a line from Republic to
Pullman to Lewiston. There will be a better chance for sunbreaks
Saturday afternoon bringing a renewed threat for isolated
thunderstorms for NE WA and Nrn ID. Any storms will be weak and
shortlived as shear and CAPE weaken throughout the afternoon. For
Central WA...upper-levels warm and stabilize with another 700mb
dry slot nosing through. However, there is a weak shortwave
showing up on all guidance. This will keep a small chance for
showers and drizzle along the Cascade Crest. Temperatures will be
4-8 degrees warmer Saturday from Friday but just shy of what is
considered normal for mid June. /sb
Saturday night through Monday...Model agreement and consistency is
decent for the later periods of the short term...with the EC...NAM
and GFS suggesting a weak cold front passing through the region
on Sunday as the next upper low begins to approach the region. The
consensus of the latest model runs suggest the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast mountains will experience the greatest threat of
showers and possible thunderstorms on Sunday. The trend of
subsequent model runs for this period will need to be scrutinized
as it appears the possibility of showers Sunday afternoon may be
increasing over previous runs. This day looks like a transition
period into another troffy pattern as a new upper low settles over
the region through Monday with a cool pool aloft promoting
instability for a threat of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms on Monday. Temperatures will probably struggle to
achieve seasonable normals in this pattern.
Monday night through Thursday...The next (aforementioned) upper
low is now advertised by both the latest GFS and ECMWF models to
persist over the northwest US through Wednesday...although
slumping south into the Great basin by Wednesday or so. Thus the
safe bet is to continue unsettled and showery conditions on
Tuesday and begin to improve/dry out things on Wednesday. There
are no well defined frontal boundaries of deformation regions over
the forecast area with this upper low...so precipitation will
likely be a seasonably normal hit-and-miss shower or occasional
thunderstorm pattern concentrated over the mountains ringing the
basin with continued cooler than normal temperatures. What is
left of the anomalous upper low will apparently simply weaken
while remaining in the vicinity of the Great Basin or slowly eject
eastward by Thursday. This suggests a continued drying trend and
slow warm up through the middle to later period of the new work
week is the safe bet at this time.
In summary...the later part of this weekend through next week will
be somewhat unsettled and cooler than normal but no identifiable
downright wet or unusually stormy conditions are expected.
/Fugazzi
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms remain across
the Cascades as well as down towards the Palouse/LC Valley.
KPUW/KLWS may see -shra vcts thru 08z and then partially clear
out. KEAT may see more continuous shower development overnight.
Widespread -RA expected by morning across the cascades and then
will move east thru the morning hrs. -RA expected at all eastern
TAF sites thru the aftn. West to southwest winds will increase a
bit Fri aftn as well. Cigs expected to remain above VFR
conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 64 49 70 48 68 46 / 40 70 20 10 30 20
Coeur d`Alene 63 49 66 46 66 44 / 50 70 50 20 50 30
Pullman 63 47 66 44 66 43 / 60 70 30 10 20 20
Lewiston 68 50 74 51 73 50 / 70 70 30 10 20 20
Colville 63 46 72 48 67 45 / 80 80 30 20 50 30
Sandpoint 64 47 63 44 63 43 / 60 80 60 20 50 40
Kellogg 58 47 61 46 63 44 / 60 80 80 20 50 40
Moses Lake 73 50 77 52 77 49 / 30 30 0 0 10 10
Wenatchee 71 48 76 56 75 54 / 50 20 10 0 10 10
Omak 69 47 77 50 74 48 / 50 40 10 10 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
227 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled and cooler than normal conditions will envelop the
region today with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Another low pressure system arriving on
Sunday will prolong these unsettled conditions through Tuesday
before a drying and warming trend develops by the middle of next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Friday and Saturday: A broad area of low pressure has shifted into
the Pac NW and will slowly track to the east during the next 24-36
hours. While the potential for strong thunderstorms has
diminished...a cool and unsettled weather pattern will remain in
place through much of the period. The main upper-level circulation
currently resides over the Dalles as of 2AM and will track to the
east/southeast setting up somewhere between Lewiston and McCall,
ID by Friday evening before ejecting into eastern Montana midday
on Saturday. There is a well defined trowal structure to the storm
system which currently wraps through Wrn MT around the eastern
periphery of the low...southern BC around the northern
periphery...then bends back into the northern Cascades on its
northwestern flank. This axis of higher theta-e air will be the
main focus for precipitation...potentially steady at times. As the
low tracks to the E/SE Friday, the moisture axis will get pulled
from northern and central WA eastward through Ern WA and Nrn ID.
Meanwhile...the main cold pool crossing through SE WA and the
lower ID Panhandle will help destabilize the atmosphere leading to
a secondary precipitation mechanism. Locations from the Blues to
Mullan and points south that are under the coolest 500mb
temperatures will stand the best chance for afternoon
thunderstorms. But here is where it gets more complicated. Between
these features, there is a residual dry slot (main reasoning for
the void in thunderstorm activity Thursday for the Spokane-CDA)
This will create an area with the least amount of cloud cover and
should also promote isolated afternoon showers largely driven by
heating of the day. This will change as the trowal airstream
shifts east this evening but for today...it should mainly be a hit
or miss type shower day. Cloud cover should be too prevalent
directly under the main trowal airstream for thunder but any
clearing/heating on its outer fringes would increase the chances
for thunder. Overall, a messy precipitation pattern is in store
for the Inland NW today. Winds will remain breezy across much of
the Basin...Palouse...West Plains and Wenatchee Area. The good
news...much cooler temperatures will keep humidities significantly
higher with very little concern for critical fire wx conditions.
The threat for precipitation will wane across the Cascades and western
Basin Friday night into Saturday but will increase for Ern WA and
Nrn ID as the storm system continues to drift east and the wrap
around moisture gets pulled east. Steady rain Friday night and
Saturday morning will transition to showers by Saturday afternoon
with the main precipitation threat east of a line from Republic to
Pullman to Lewiston. There will be a better chance for sunbreaks
Saturday afternoon bringing a renewed threat for isolated
thunderstorms for NE WA and Nrn ID. Any storms will be weak and
shortlived as shear and CAPE weaken throughout the afternoon. For
Central WA...upper-levels warm and stabilize with another 700mb
dry slot nosing through. However, there is a weak shortwave
showing up on all guidance. This will keep a small chance for
showers and drizzle along the Cascade Crest. Temperatures will be
4-8 degrees warmer Saturday from Friday but just shy of what is
considered normal for mid June. /sb
Saturday night through Monday...Model agreement and consistency is
decent for the later periods of the short term...with the EC...NAM
and GFS suggesting a weak cold front passing through the region
on Sunday as the next upper low begins to approach the region. The
consensus of the latest model runs suggest the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast mountains will experience the greatest threat of
showers and possible thunderstorms on Sunday. The trend of
subsequent model runs for this period will need to be scrutinized
as it appears the possibility of showers Sunday afternoon may be
increasing over previous runs. This day looks like a transition
period into another troffy pattern as a new upper low settles over
the region through Monday with a cool pool aloft promoting
instability for a threat of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms on Monday. Temperatures will probably struggle to
achieve seasonable normals in this pattern.
Monday night through Thursday...The next (aforementioned) upper
low is now advertised by both the latest GFS and ECMWF models to
persist over the northwest US through Wednesday...although
slumping south into the Great basin by Wednesday or so. Thus the
safe bet is to continue unsettled and showery conditions on
Tuesday and begin to improve/dry out things on Wednesday. There
are no well defined frontal boundaries of deformation regions over
the forecast area with this upper low...so precipitation will
likely be a seasonably normal hit-and-miss shower or occasional
thunderstorm pattern concentrated over the mountains ringing the
basin with continued cooler than normal temperatures. What is
left of the anomalous upper low will apparently simply weaken
while remaining in the vicinity of the Great Basin or slowly eject
eastward by Thursday. This suggests a continued drying trend and
slow warm up through the middle to later period of the new work
week is the safe bet at this time.
In summary...the later part of this weekend through next week will
be somewhat unsettled and cooler than normal but no identifiable
downright wet or unusually stormy conditions are expected.
/Fugazzi
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms remain across
the Cascades as well as down towards the Palouse/LC Valley.
KPUW/KLWS may see -shra vcts thru 08z and then partially clear
out. KEAT may see more continuous shower development overnight.
Widespread -RA expected by morning across the cascades and then
will move east thru the morning hrs. -RA expected at all eastern
TAF sites thru the aftn. West to southwest winds will increase a
bit Fri aftn as well. Cigs expected to remain above VFR
conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 64 49 70 48 68 46 / 40 70 20 10 30 20
Coeur d`Alene 63 49 66 46 66 44 / 50 70 50 20 50 30
Pullman 63 47 66 44 66 43 / 60 70 30 10 20 20
Lewiston 68 50 74 51 73 50 / 70 70 30 10 20 20
Colville 63 46 72 48 67 45 / 80 80 30 20 50 30
Sandpoint 64 47 63 44 63 43 / 60 80 60 20 50 40
Kellogg 58 47 61 46 63 44 / 60 80 80 20 50 40
Moses Lake 73 50 77 52 77 49 / 30 30 0 0 10 10
Wenatchee 71 48 76 56 75 54 / 50 20 10 0 10 10
Omak 69 47 77 50 74 48 / 50 40 10 10 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
227 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled and cooler than normal conditions will envelop the
region today with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Another low pressure system arriving on
Sunday will prolong these unsettled conditions through Tuesday
before a drying and warming trend develops by the middle of next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Friday and Saturday: A broad area of low pressure has shifted into
the Pac NW and will slowly track to the east during the next 24-36
hours. While the potential for strong thunderstorms has
diminished...a cool and unsettled weather pattern will remain in
place through much of the period. The main upper-level circulation
currently resides over the Dalles as of 2AM and will track to the
east/southeast setting up somewhere between Lewiston and McCall,
ID by Friday evening before ejecting into eastern Montana midday
on Saturday. There is a well defined trowal structure to the storm
system which currently wraps through Wrn MT around the eastern
periphery of the low...southern BC around the northern
periphery...then bends back into the northern Cascades on its
northwestern flank. This axis of higher theta-e air will be the
main focus for precipitation...potentially steady at times. As the
low tracks to the E/SE Friday, the moisture axis will get pulled
from northern and central WA eastward through Ern WA and Nrn ID.
Meanwhile...the main cold pool crossing through SE WA and the
lower ID Panhandle will help destabilize the atmosphere leading to
a secondary precipitation mechanism. Locations from the Blues to
Mullan and points south that are under the coolest 500mb
temperatures will stand the best chance for afternoon
thunderstorms. But here is where it gets more complicated. Between
these features, there is a residual dry slot (main reasoning for
the void in thunderstorm activity Thursday for the Spokane-CDA)
This will create an area with the least amount of cloud cover and
should also promote isolated afternoon showers largely driven by
heating of the day. This will change as the trowal airstream
shifts east this evening but for today...it should mainly be a hit
or miss type shower day. Cloud cover should be too prevalent
directly under the main trowal airstream for thunder but any
clearing/heating on its outer fringes would increase the chances
for thunder. Overall, a messy precipitation pattern is in store
for the Inland NW today. Winds will remain breezy across much of
the Basin...Palouse...West Plains and Wenatchee Area. The good
news...much cooler temperatures will keep humidities significantly
higher with very little concern for critical fire wx conditions.
The threat for precipitation will wane across the Cascades and western
Basin Friday night into Saturday but will increase for Ern WA and
Nrn ID as the storm system continues to drift east and the wrap
around moisture gets pulled east. Steady rain Friday night and
Saturday morning will transition to showers by Saturday afternoon
with the main precipitation threat east of a line from Republic to
Pullman to Lewiston. There will be a better chance for sunbreaks
Saturday afternoon bringing a renewed threat for isolated
thunderstorms for NE WA and Nrn ID. Any storms will be weak and
shortlived as shear and CAPE weaken throughout the afternoon. For
Central WA...upper-levels warm and stabilize with another 700mb
dry slot nosing through. However, there is a weak shortwave
showing up on all guidance. This will keep a small chance for
showers and drizzle along the Cascade Crest. Temperatures will be
4-8 degrees warmer Saturday from Friday but just shy of what is
considered normal for mid June. /sb
Saturday night through Monday...Model agreement and consistency is
decent for the later periods of the short term...with the EC...NAM
and GFS suggesting a weak cold front passing through the region
on Sunday as the next upper low begins to approach the region. The
consensus of the latest model runs suggest the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast mountains will experience the greatest threat of
showers and possible thunderstorms on Sunday. The trend of
subsequent model runs for this period will need to be scrutinized
as it appears the possibility of showers Sunday afternoon may be
increasing over previous runs. This day looks like a transition
period into another troffy pattern as a new upper low settles over
the region through Monday with a cool pool aloft promoting
instability for a threat of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms on Monday. Temperatures will probably struggle to
achieve seasonable normals in this pattern.
Monday night through Thursday...The next (aforementioned) upper
low is now advertised by both the latest GFS and ECMWF models to
persist over the northwest US through Wednesday...although
slumping south into the Great basin by Wednesday or so. Thus the
safe bet is to continue unsettled and showery conditions on
Tuesday and begin to improve/dry out things on Wednesday. There
are no well defined frontal boundaries of deformation regions over
the forecast area with this upper low...so precipitation will
likely be a seasonably normal hit-and-miss shower or occasional
thunderstorm pattern concentrated over the mountains ringing the
basin with continued cooler than normal temperatures. What is
left of the anomalous upper low will apparently simply weaken
while remaining in the vicinity of the Great Basin or slowly eject
eastward by Thursday. This suggests a continued drying trend and
slow warm up through the middle to later period of the new work
week is the safe bet at this time.
In summary...the later part of this weekend through next week will
be somewhat unsettled and cooler than normal but no identifiable
downright wet or unusually stormy conditions are expected.
/Fugazzi
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms remain across
the Cascades as well as down towards the Palouse/LC Valley.
KPUW/KLWS may see -shra vcts thru 08z and then partially clear
out. KEAT may see more continuous shower development overnight.
Widespread -RA expected by morning across the cascades and then
will move east thru the morning hrs. -RA expected at all eastern
TAF sites thru the aftn. West to southwest winds will increase a
bit Fri aftn as well. Cigs expected to remain above VFR
conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 64 49 70 48 68 46 / 40 70 20 10 30 20
Coeur d`Alene 63 49 66 46 66 44 / 50 70 50 20 50 30
Pullman 63 47 66 44 66 43 / 60 70 30 10 20 20
Lewiston 68 50 74 51 73 50 / 70 70 30 10 20 20
Colville 63 46 72 48 67 45 / 80 80 30 20 50 30
Sandpoint 64 47 63 44 63 43 / 60 80 60 20 50 40
Kellogg 58 47 61 46 63 44 / 60 80 80 20 50 40
Moses Lake 73 50 77 52 77 49 / 30 30 0 0 10 10
Wenatchee 71 48 76 56 75 54 / 50 20 10 0 10 10
Omak 69 47 77 50 74 48 / 50 40 10 10 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
227 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled and cooler than normal conditions will envelop the
region today with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Another low pressure system arriving on
Sunday will prolong these unsettled conditions through Tuesday
before a drying and warming trend develops by the middle of next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Friday and Saturday: A broad area of low pressure has shifted into
the Pac NW and will slowly track to the east during the next 24-36
hours. While the potential for strong thunderstorms has
diminished...a cool and unsettled weather pattern will remain in
place through much of the period. The main upper-level circulation
currently resides over the Dalles as of 2AM and will track to the
east/southeast setting up somewhere between Lewiston and McCall,
ID by Friday evening before ejecting into eastern Montana midday
on Saturday. There is a well defined trowal structure to the storm
system which currently wraps through Wrn MT around the eastern
periphery of the low...southern BC around the northern
periphery...then bends back into the northern Cascades on its
northwestern flank. This axis of higher theta-e air will be the
main focus for precipitation...potentially steady at times. As the
low tracks to the E/SE Friday, the moisture axis will get pulled
from northern and central WA eastward through Ern WA and Nrn ID.
Meanwhile...the main cold pool crossing through SE WA and the
lower ID Panhandle will help destabilize the atmosphere leading to
a secondary precipitation mechanism. Locations from the Blues to
Mullan and points south that are under the coolest 500mb
temperatures will stand the best chance for afternoon
thunderstorms. But here is where it gets more complicated. Between
these features, there is a residual dry slot (main reasoning for
the void in thunderstorm activity Thursday for the Spokane-CDA)
This will create an area with the least amount of cloud cover and
should also promote isolated afternoon showers largely driven by
heating of the day. This will change as the trowal airstream
shifts east this evening but for today...it should mainly be a hit
or miss type shower day. Cloud cover should be too prevalent
directly under the main trowal airstream for thunder but any
clearing/heating on its outer fringes would increase the chances
for thunder. Overall, a messy precipitation pattern is in store
for the Inland NW today. Winds will remain breezy across much of
the Basin...Palouse...West Plains and Wenatchee Area. The good
news...much cooler temperatures will keep humidities significantly
higher with very little concern for critical fire wx conditions.
The threat for precipitation will wane across the Cascades and western
Basin Friday night into Saturday but will increase for Ern WA and
Nrn ID as the storm system continues to drift east and the wrap
around moisture gets pulled east. Steady rain Friday night and
Saturday morning will transition to showers by Saturday afternoon
with the main precipitation threat east of a line from Republic to
Pullman to Lewiston. There will be a better chance for sunbreaks
Saturday afternoon bringing a renewed threat for isolated
thunderstorms for NE WA and Nrn ID. Any storms will be weak and
shortlived as shear and CAPE weaken throughout the afternoon. For
Central WA...upper-levels warm and stabilize with another 700mb
dry slot nosing through. However, there is a weak shortwave
showing up on all guidance. This will keep a small chance for
showers and drizzle along the Cascade Crest. Temperatures will be
4-8 degrees warmer Saturday from Friday but just shy of what is
considered normal for mid June. /sb
Saturday night through Monday...Model agreement and consistency is
decent for the later periods of the short term...with the EC...NAM
and GFS suggesting a weak cold front passing through the region
on Sunday as the next upper low begins to approach the region. The
consensus of the latest model runs suggest the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast mountains will experience the greatest threat of
showers and possible thunderstorms on Sunday. The trend of
subsequent model runs for this period will need to be scrutinized
as it appears the possibility of showers Sunday afternoon may be
increasing over previous runs. This day looks like a transition
period into another troffy pattern as a new upper low settles over
the region through Monday with a cool pool aloft promoting
instability for a threat of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms on Monday. Temperatures will probably struggle to
achieve seasonable normals in this pattern.
Monday night through Thursday...The next (aforementioned) upper
low is now advertised by both the latest GFS and ECMWF models to
persist over the northwest US through Wednesday...although
slumping south into the Great basin by Wednesday or so. Thus the
safe bet is to continue unsettled and showery conditions on
Tuesday and begin to improve/dry out things on Wednesday. There
are no well defined frontal boundaries of deformation regions over
the forecast area with this upper low...so precipitation will
likely be a seasonably normal hit-and-miss shower or occasional
thunderstorm pattern concentrated over the mountains ringing the
basin with continued cooler than normal temperatures. What is
left of the anomalous upper low will apparently simply weaken
while remaining in the vicinity of the Great Basin or slowly eject
eastward by Thursday. This suggests a continued drying trend and
slow warm up through the middle to later period of the new work
week is the safe bet at this time.
In summary...the later part of this weekend through next week will
be somewhat unsettled and cooler than normal but no identifiable
downright wet or unusually stormy conditions are expected.
/Fugazzi
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms remain across
the Cascades as well as down towards the Palouse/LC Valley.
KPUW/KLWS may see -shra vcts thru 08z and then partially clear
out. KEAT may see more continuous shower development overnight.
Widespread -RA expected by morning across the cascades and then
will move east thru the morning hrs. -RA expected at all eastern
TAF sites thru the aftn. West to southwest winds will increase a
bit Fri aftn as well. Cigs expected to remain above VFR
conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 64 49 70 48 68 46 / 40 70 20 10 30 20
Coeur d`Alene 63 49 66 46 66 44 / 50 70 50 20 50 30
Pullman 63 47 66 44 66 43 / 60 70 30 10 20 20
Lewiston 68 50 74 51 73 50 / 70 70 30 10 20 20
Colville 63 46 72 48 67 45 / 80 80 30 20 50 30
Sandpoint 64 47 63 44 63 43 / 60 80 60 20 50 40
Kellogg 58 47 61 46 63 44 / 60 80 80 20 50 40
Moses Lake 73 50 77 52 77 49 / 30 30 0 0 10 10
Wenatchee 71 48 76 56 75 54 / 50 20 10 0 10 10
Omak 69 47 77 50 74 48 / 50 40 10 10 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AAA
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1055 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system will track into the region this
evening bringing a good chance of thunderstorms some of which
could be strong with gusty winds and large hail. The low will
remain over the region through the weekend resulting in cool and
unsettled weather conditions. High pressure will return into the
region on Tuesday and bring drying conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...Strong upper level low continues to slowly meander
toward the Washington coast as of 2pm with strong upper level
difluence noted ahead of it. This difluence is associated with
strong upper level southwesterly jet which extended from the SW
corner of Oregon and into SE Washington. Meanwhile the offshore
trough will take on a slightly negative tilt as a shortwave rounds
the base. These mechanisms will provide the lift necessary for
thunderstorms...while the instability is already present. Thus far
the greatest potential instability was located near the Cascades
where MUCAPE values have surged into 1000-1500 j/kg range with
little if any inhibition. Thunderstorms have been growing in
number but thus far have been restricted to the western portions
of Chelan and Okanogan counties. 0-6 km shear values in these
areas range from 25-35 kts which isn`t terrific but could be
sufficient for an isolated strong or severe thunderstorm with the
main threat being moderate sized hail. An area of greater concern
lies over the SE corner of Washington and the southern half of the
Idaho Panhandle. This location has a much more profound
instability axis as well as shear values topping out between 50-60
kts. Convection has already begun to grow over the NE corner of
Oregon and should drift into SE Washington and the Panhandle
during the early evening as the low moves inland. The HRRR has
consistently forecast this feature to track through the SE corner
of our CWA so confidence is growing. Whether or not the
thunderstorms in this area become severe isn`t a certainty...but
the max composite reflectivity product has consistently depicted a
bow-like structure which would be conducive for strong winds. The
threat for any strong/severe storms should be minimal after the
late evening hours as we lose any impacts from surface heating. As
the low tracks east of the Cascades during the evening...we will
see an intrusion of drier air move into the southern Cascades and
into the Columbia Basin behind a cold front. This should also put
an end to the convective chances in these locations...with the
possibility of this moving as far east as the Spokane area and
Washington Palouse. For the overnight hours...we should see most
of the precipitation chances focused around the northern and
eastern periphery of the upper level low. This generally
encompasses the western Cascades through the northern Washington
mountains and into the northern Idaho Panhandle. Potential
instability numbers suggest lightning could still be possible from
the Okanogan Highlands to the northern tip of the Panhandle. fx
Friday and Friday night: The cold upper level low pressure system
will pass over SE WA and over the Central Panhandle during the
day. This is where the coldest temps aloft and the steepest mid
level lapse rates will reside. As such, the southeastern portion
of the forecast area will see the best chance for thunderstorms
from the afternoon into the evening. We will also be dealing with
some wrap around moisture rotating in over the Northern Panhandle
and across much of the western half of the forecast area. Showers
will also develop along this TROWAL (TRough Of Warm Air Aloft)
like feature through this period as well. This will result in
plenty of cloud cover and higher than average precip chances
across the region. In fact, most areas will see a good chance for
some rain either in the afternoon or overnight on Friday as the
TROWAL shifts eastward with time along the backside of the low.
Cloudy skies under the low on Friday will result in dramatically
lower temps compared to this afternoon. Expect high temps only to
get up into the 60s for most locations in the afternoon.
Saturday through Sunday evening: The flow pattern over the region
will transition to out of the northwest as the low exits the
area. Showers will linger primarily across the eastern third of
the forecast area on Saturday. Temperatures will rebound closer to
normal Saturday afternoon.
The next weather feature of note will be a cold front passage on
Sunday. There is some uncertainty with the strength and moisture
content with this wave. The latest 18Z NAM just came in with Pwats
up around 0.80 inches compared to just 0.50 to 0.60 inches off of
the 12Z GFS run. The current forecast is more reflective of the
drier GFS with the best chances of showers across the northern
mtns. If subsequent model runs continue to show a stronger and
wetter wave like the newest NAM run, then the forecast will need
to be adjusted wetter and have increased coverage further south
and into the basin. Winds do not appear to be that much of a
concern across the region with this front, but we will continue to
see a fairly tight cross Cascade gradient. This will would keep
winds breezy through the Cascade gaps and out into the western
basin. /SVH
Sunday night through Thursday: Big differences right off the bat
for the latter portion of the extended forecast. While the GFS
would maintain a northwest flow on Monday, and then build a weak
ridge in for the middle of the week. This solution is also
supported by others. On the other hand, other model solutions
would argue for another more organized low pressure system moving
right over top of the Inland Northwest, which would bring much
cooler and unsettled conditions. With emphasis this shift on the
shorter terms, this forecast will go with the status quo, which is
more in line with the more consistent solutions. This will give
slowly warming temperatures each day, with precipitation chances
mainly confined to the higher elevations. ty
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms remain across
the Cascades as well as down towards the Palouse/LC Valley.
KPUW/KLWS may see -shra vcts thru 08z and then partially clear
out. KEAT may see more continuous shower development overnight.
Widespread -RA expected by morning across the cascades and then
will move east thru the morning hrs. -RA expected at all eastern
TAF sites thru the aftn. West to southwest winds will increase a
bit Fri aftn as well. Cigs expected to remain above VFR
conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 49 62 48 69 48 68 / 10 70 70 20 10 20
Coeur d`Alene 48 61 47 66 46 66 / 10 70 70 40 20 30
Pullman 46 60 45 66 44 66 / 10 70 70 30 10 20
Lewiston 54 67 51 75 51 73 / 20 70 70 30 10 20
Colville 50 63 48 71 48 67 / 30 80 80 30 20 30
Sandpoint 49 60 46 62 44 63 / 20 80 80 60 20 30
Kellogg 48 58 45 61 46 63 / 50 70 80 80 20 30
Moses Lake 53 71 51 78 52 77 / 10 50 30 0 0 10
Wenatchee 54 70 55 76 56 75 / 40 50 30 10 0 10
Omak 52 69 51 78 50 74 / 60 60 40 10 10 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
847 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS EVENING HAS BEEN ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS A
POTENT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH IN
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES INTO A DRY/STABLE AIR MASS IN WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS RAIN APPEARS TO BE TIED TO THE REMNANTS OF AN MCV
THAT MOVED THROUGH FROM IOWA TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLIER TODAY.
PART OF IT WAS ABLE TO RIDE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET...BUT CONTINUES TO FADE AS IT RUNS AWAY FROM THE DEEPER
FORCING/INSTABILITY WHICH IS WELL OUT TO THE WEST IN THE VICINITY
OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH IN WESTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/RECENT MODEL TRENDS...IT APPEARS THAT THERE
WILL BE A DRY PERIOD LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION FORMING IN THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. THE
LLJ IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SO WILL BE
WATCHING THAT AREA TONIGHT FOR ANY POTENTIAL STRONG STORMS.
THE NEXT WIDESPREAD ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE AS THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. THE HRRR HAS BEEN TRENDING DRY ALONG THIS FRONT
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT MOST OTHER GUIDANCE HAS AT LEAST SOME SORT
OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG IT. THE 15.00Z RAP HAS THE FRONT
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN BY 18Z WITH THE MAIN BELT OF MLCAPE COMING
IN AHEAD OF IT IN A ZONE WHERE LOW/MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR APPEARS TO
BE AT A MINIMUM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. A WEAK WARM FRONT ARCS
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE KANSAS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
MAIN AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA SO FAR TODAY BUT HAS BEEN SLOWLY ADVANCING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT
HAS BEEN SLOWED BY THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS THAT KEEP FEEDING THIS DRY AIR INTO THE LEADING EDGE.
THE 14.12Z HI-RES ARW AND 14.16Z HRRR ARE BOTH IN AGREEMENT IN
HOLDING THIS ACTIVITY TOGETHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT LIFTING
IT NORTHEAST IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH THIS TREND IN
MIND...WILL SO A SLOW BUT GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY LATE EVENING WILL HAVE 60 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3RD OF THE AREA WHILE REMAINING DRY
ACROSS THE EAST.
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
WYOMING AND COLORADO WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES WHILE TAKING ON MORE OF NEGATIVE
TILT. BOTH THE 14.12Z NAM AND GFS SHOW THE BEST PV ADVECTION IN
THE 500-300 MB LAYER STAYING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BUT SHOULD
STILL HAVE A PERIOD OF WEAK PV ADVECTION COME ACROSS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BECOME VERY STRONG
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW CREATING STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO WESTERN IOWA WHERE AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING. THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT THEN SHIFTS NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE NOSE OF THIS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTIONS AROUND 09Z OR SO AND BY 12Z THIS AXIS OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE AREA. EXPECTING TO SEE THE SEVERE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TRANSLATE
NORTHEAST WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BY THE TIME THE STORMS
ARRIVE IN THE AREA...THEY SHOULD BE ELEVATED AND WILL STILL HAVE
UP TO 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE 1KM TO WORK WITH. DESPITE
THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...THE SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK THAT GREAT IN THE
ELEVATED LAYER WITH ONLY AROUND 20 KNOTS SHOWN. THE BETTER SHEAR
LAGS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA UNDER THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE INCOMING JET CORE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO...BUT WITH THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
STORMS...NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT TO OCCUR TO
TONIGHT.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND THE NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ALL THE 14.12Z
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY 18Z SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT ABOUT TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE FRONT A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...SOME POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE OVER THE
EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ML CAPES SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET TO AROUND
1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AROUND 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR.
THE OTHER THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS SHOULD INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES
WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 3.5 KM. THIS SHOULD MAKE THE
CONVECTION EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
POSSIBLE. BELIEVE THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH AND NOT
TRAINING THAT FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE ISSUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS TEMPORARILY BUILD OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
RELOADING WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL STILL BE BACK OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET EJECTED OUT OF THIS
AND COME ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THE BEST PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHWEST BUT
AT THE LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT THAT GOES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
START TO COME BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS SHOULD WORK BACK
INTO CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND THEN TO ABOUT THE
IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG AND GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT. BETTER CAPE MAY IN PLACE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG
OF ML CAPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. 0-6 KM SHEAR LOOKS PRETTY
DECENT AS WELL WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS.
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME A THREAT AS
WELL. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 4 KM AND COULD
TRAIN WEST TO EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS AND THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY HINGE ON HOW
MUCH RAIN FALLS TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
THE COMPLEX THAT FORMS MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE VERY FAR TO THE
SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE WESTERN LONG WAVE
TROUGH. AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COME OUT OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH...SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
14.12Z ECMWF THEN SUGGESTS THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL START TO LIFT OUT
WHILE THE GFS CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
KEEPING SOME RAIN OVER THE REGION. THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT
SUGGESTS THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION AND A
FLASH FLOODING THREAT. WILL MAINTAIN 40 TO 60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
AS LONG AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED FROM SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA ON INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. VISIBILITIES DROP TO
AROUND 2SM FOR A BRIEF PERIOD IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH MOST
CONDITIONS ARE VFR THROUGH THE REGION. TRENDS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
NAIL DOWN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE AREA WILL BE IN A
BROAD AREA WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THIS
EVENING...PARTICULARLY AT RST WHERE WINDS CURRENTLY ARE SUSTAINED
AT 20KTS GUSTING TO 27KTS. THERE SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE
EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTER THE COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
652 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. A WEAK WARM FRONT ARCS
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE KANSAS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
MAIN AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA SO FAR TODAY BUT HAS BEEN SLOWLY ADVANCING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT
HAS BEEN SLOWED BY THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS THAT KEEP FEEDING THIS DRY AIR INTO THE LEADING EDGE.
THE 14.12Z HI-RES ARW AND 14.16Z HRRR ARE BOTH IN AGREEMENT IN
HOLDING THIS ACTIVITY TOGETHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT LIFTING
IT NORTHEAST IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH THIS TREND IN
MIND...WILL SO A SLOW BUT GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY LATE EVENING WILL HAVE 60 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3RD OF THE AREA WHILE REMAINING DRY
ACROSS THE EAST.
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
WYOMING AND COLORADO WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES WHILE TAKING ON MORE OF NEGATIVE
TILT. BOTH THE 14.12Z NAM AND GFS SHOW THE BEST PV ADVECTION IN
THE 500-300 MB LAYER STAYING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BUT SHOULD
STILL HAVE A PERIOD OF WEAK PV ADVECTION COME ACROSS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BECOME VERY STRONG
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW CREATING STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO WESTERN IOWA WHERE AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING. THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT THEN SHIFTS NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE NOSE OF THIS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTIONS AROUND 09Z OR SO AND BY 12Z THIS AXIS OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE AREA. EXPECTING TO SEE THE SEVERE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TRANSLATE
NORTHEAST WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BY THE TIME THE STORMS
ARRIVE IN THE AREA...THEY SHOULD BE ELEVATED AND WILL STILL HAVE
UP TO 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE 1KM TO WORK WITH. DESPITE
THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...THE SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK THAT GREAT IN THE
ELEVATED LAYER WITH ONLY AROUND 20 KNOTS SHOWN. THE BETTER SHEAR
LAGS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA UNDER THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE INCOMING JET CORE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO...BUT WITH THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
STORMS...NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT TO OCCUR TO
TONIGHT.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND THE NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ALL THE 14.12Z
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY 18Z SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT ABOUT TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE FRONT A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...SOME POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE OVER THE
EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ML CAPES SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET TO AROUND
1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AROUND 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR.
THE OTHER THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS SHOULD INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES
WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 3.5 KM. THIS SHOULD MAKE THE
CONVECTION EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
POSSIBLE. BELIEVE THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH AND NOT
TRAINING THAT FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE ISSUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS TEMPORARILY BUILD OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
RELOADING WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL STILL BE BACK OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET EJECTED OUT OF THIS
AND COME ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THE BEST PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHWEST BUT
AT THE LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT THAT GOES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
START TO COME BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS SHOULD WORK BACK
INTO CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND THEN TO ABOUT THE
IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG AND GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT. BETTER CAPE MAY IN PLACE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG
OF ML CAPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. 0-6 KM SHEAR LOOKS PRETTY
DECENT AS WELL WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS.
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME A THREAT AS
WELL. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 4 KM AND COULD
TRAIN WEST TO EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS AND THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY HINGE ON HOW
MUCH RAIN FALLS TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
THE COMPLEX THAT FORMS MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE VERY FAR TO THE
SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE WESTERN LONG WAVE
TROUGH. AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COME OUT OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH...SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
14.12Z ECMWF THEN SUGGESTS THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL START TO LIFT OUT
WHILE THE GFS CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
KEEPING SOME RAIN OVER THE REGION. THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT
SUGGESTS THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION AND A
FLASH FLOODING THREAT. WILL MAINTAIN 40 TO 60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
AS LONG AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED FROM SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA ON INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. VISIBILITIES DROP TO
AROUND 2SM FOR A BRIEF PERIOD IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH MOST
CONDITIONS ARE VFR THROUGH THE REGION. TRENDS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
NAIL DOWN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE AREA WILL BE IN A
BROAD AREA WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THIS
EVENING...PARTICULARLY AT RST WHERE WINDS CURRENTLY ARE SUSTAINED
AT 20KTS GUSTING TO 27KTS. THERE SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE
EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTER THE COLD
FRONT COMES THROUGH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
343 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
AT 3 PM...A 1018 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI.
THIS HIGH HAS KEPT THE AREA MAINLY CLEAR TODAY. FURTHER
WEST...MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. SOME OF THE
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS CONVECTION IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...MORE AND MORE OF THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL SEE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY. BOTH THE ARW AND HRRR TRY TO
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THESE MODELS ARE ALREADY OVER DOING THE DEW
POINTS...SO THEY HAVE FAR TOO MUCH CAPE. AS A RESULT...KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY LIKE THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW.
ON SATURDAY...THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
TOWARD THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHEAST IOWA...AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE 0-3 KM SHEAR WOULD BE
FAVORABLE TO DAMAGING WINDS...THE ML CAPES /LESS THAN 250 J/KG/
WILL MAKE IT VERY UNLIKELY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
VEERS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND WARM
CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS AROUND 3.5 KM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAIN.
ON SUNDAY...THE 13.00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE
NAM/WRF CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THIS WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE
MORNING. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THAT IT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AREAS WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THE MORNING AND THROUGH
WESTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING DIFFERENCE
ALLOWS MORE 0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE TO BUILD AHEAD OF THIS SHORT
WAVE. THE NAM HAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG. MEANWHILE THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES RANGING FROM 300 TO 1200 J/KG.
WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS...THIS OPENS UP A SMALL
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SUPERCELLS COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE SHORT WAVE. IF THEY DID HAPPEN TO DEVELOP...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS HAS THIS FRONT MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS THIS FRONT ONLY
GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. 1 TO 2K 0-3 KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPES DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY AND SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND MODERATE TO STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A MESCOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN IOWA...AND THE CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD
LAYER DEPTHS AROUND 4 KM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. IN ADDITION...WITH 0-3 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE 0-1
KM SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT WOULD BE EVEN FAVORABLE OF THE
POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALONG THE WARM FRONT. IN THE WARM
SECTOR...THE CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END AS AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS BROUGHT IN ISENTROPICALLY INTO
THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THIS CAP BETWEEN 900 AND 650 MB
WILL ALLOW MOST UNSTABLE CAPES TO CLIMB INTO THE 3 TO 6K J/JG
ON TUESDAY.
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH OF
THESE DIFFERENCES START TO SHOW UP ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL
DEVELOP ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT NEAR OR
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND THIS KEEPS THE AREA IN WARM SECTOR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A STRONG
ENOUGH COLD POOL IN THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT THIS
FRONT GETS PUSHED SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA AND IT REMAINS WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE IN BOTH
SCENARIOS...THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL GREATLY
AFFECT HOW WARM WE WILL GET DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DUE TO
THIS...JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO KANSAS. LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO
INCREASE TO OVER 10 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ONCE THE MIXING KICKS IN SATURDAY MORNING SUSTAINED SPEEDS AT KRST
SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30
KNOTS. ONLY EXPECTING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST TO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AREA OF LOW STRATO-CU HAS
DEPARTED ALL BUT THE TIP OF THE DOOR LEAVING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REST OF THE STATE. LOOKING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AHEAD OF A
TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE NW CONUS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING OVER NW NORTH DAKOTA IN A REGION OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN. THE DISTANCE/SPEED TOOL HAS THE AREA OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS REACHING NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
INTO THE REGION...FOLLOW BY SMALL PRECIP CHANCES TOMORROW.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO MICHIGAN BY MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
ADVANCING EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT THOUGH SKY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR
BEFORE BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE. IF IT WERE NOT FOR
THESE CLOUDS...WOULD HAVE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN
PLACE. DEWPOINTS FELL INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPS SHOULD NOT REACH THIS LOW DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER. WILL SHOW LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S NEAR
THE U.P. BORDER BUT THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER. DESPITE MOISTURE
INCREASING ABOVE 10 KFT...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BELOW 6 C/KM AND
WILL HAVE A LARGE DRY WEDGE BELOW THIS HEIGHT. WILL LEAVE PRECIP
OUT OF THE FORECAST. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION...THE FLOW WILL BE
TURNING WESTERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP A DRY WEDGE BELOW 700MB...BUT PWATS WILL BE
INCREASING TO GREATER THAN AN INCH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL BE
PUSHING A 700MB THETAE GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN PWAT AXIS
WILL REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA...THE WEAK FORCING AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWER/TSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND
N-C WISCONSIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER IN MANY
LOCATIONS THAN TODAY...BUT WONDER IF THE EAST COULD BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN ADVERTISED AS A RESULT OF CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY
FLOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
FIRST FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD CENTERS ON THE INTENSITY OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND FAR EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION...A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OR LOW WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WAA LIKELY GENERATING PCPN OVER AREAS TO THE WEST
SATURDAY AND PERHAPS PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. H850 TEMP
PROGS SUGGEST THE 850 FRONT SLIDES NORTH OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING WHILE PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD AS THE 45 KNOT
SOUTHWEST LLJ ADVECTS INCREASING MOISTURE/PWATS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...REACHING NEAR 1.5 OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TONGUE OF HIGHER PWATS WILL BE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF PASSING COOL FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS...BUT TO DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONTS AND A FOCUS OF HEAVY RAINS...WILL
HOLD OFF A MENTION OF AN ESF FOR NOW. BEST INSTABILITY LIES TO THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH ON SUNDAY...BUT DOES HAVE INCREASING
MID LEVEL WINDS AS THE SHORT WAVE AXIS SHIFTS OVER ON SUNDAY.
A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING
DRIFTS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE PRIMARY
BOUNDARY WHICH SEPARATES A RELATIVE DRIER AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND
THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. BUT THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE INCREASES STARTING MONDAY ON THE LOCATION AND RETURN
OF THIS BOUNDARY. SUBTLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THIS FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AND LIFT IT BACK NORTH. BUFKIT CAPES FROM THE GFS RUN
GENERATING CAPES OF AROUND 3000 FOR TUESDAY. MEANWHILE A DEEPER
UPPER LOW SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE GENERAL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES AND MAY AFFECT THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
PERIOD.
OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE...WHILE FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LOCATION AND LIKELY PERIODS OF
CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION WILL SHIFT TO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WHILE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND DIMINISHING WINDS. GOOD FLYING WEATHER WILL BE PRESENT THIS
EVENING...BUT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE THREAT OF PRECIP SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON THOUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MIDDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1146 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
THE MAIN UPDATE TO THE EVENING FORECAST HAS BEEN TO ADD IN A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER CLOUD COVER TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CLOSED LOW HAS KEPT A MORE WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK IN
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND HAS BROUGHT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG WITH IT. RADAR IS OVERSHOOTING THESE SHOWERS...BUT OBS FROM
SITES IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE REPORTING THEM. THEY SHOULD
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES
EAST AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
AT 3 PM...A 990 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN ANS THEN SOUTH ALONG THE WEST SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A
BROKEN DECK OF INSTABILITY CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN LAYER
OF 850 TO 800 MB MOISTURE AND 10 C/KM LAPSE RATES. THESE STEEP
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO BRINGING DOWN WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH.
FOR TONIGHT...THE RAP CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE BROKEN DECK OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
THROUGH 13.03Z...AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 13.03Z AND 13.06Z. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST UP TO 25 MPH THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION
DEVELOPS.
FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT AS DIURNAL HEATING TAKES PLACE...900 TO
850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 10 C/KM. THIS WILL MIX
DOWN DRIER AIR MUCH ALOFT. THE AWIPS MIX TOOL SUGGEST THAT DEW
POINTS WILL IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...
AND AROUND 40 WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS 5 TO 10
DEGREE LOWER THAN THE MOS. THIS LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO
THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. UNLIKE THIS AFTERNOON...THE WINDS
SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY LESS 7 MPH UP TO 800 MB...SO NOT EXPECTING
TOO MUCH WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE 12.12Z ARW GENERATES SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS IN THIS
MODELS ARE RUNNING NEARLY 10 DEGREES TOO HIGH. THIS IS RESULTING
IN TOO HIGH OF CAPES. IN ADDITION...THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY.
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE STRONGEST 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS A RESULT
WENT DRY DURING THE MORNING...AND THEN KEPT A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE NORTHWEST OF A NEILLSVILLE WISCONSIN TO OELWEIN IOWA LINE.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING...AND THEN MOVE EAST
AS THE LOW LEVEL JETS VEERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS
CLIMBING INTO THE 3.5 TO 4 KM RANGE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
UP TO 1.8 INCHES...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAIN. WHILE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE INHIBITED BY THE LACK OF 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR...AND ML CAPES
LESS THAN 250 J/KG.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE
POSITION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW...SO JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT AT
LSE/RST AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
MOVES IN FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND SHIFT FROM THE WEST TODAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
343 AM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY ZONAL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONLY
SOME HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
OVERALL WILL KEEP FCST DRY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF HIGH BASED
CONVECTION OVER THE NERN PLAINS THIS EVENING WHERE SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. AS FOR HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS NERN CO.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014
NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH
THIS PACKAGE. MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING A PROGRESSION FROM
DRY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO AN UPPER TROUGH
PASSING WEDNESDAY EVENING TO STRONG UPPER RIDGING BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS SHARPER AND DEEPER THAN
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS. FOR THE TIME BEING WILL JUST STICK
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION SINCE
THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE PASSING OF SOME UPPER DYNAMICS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S. TUESDAY
MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY. THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER TROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONTAL
FEATURE WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS
THAT VEGETATION IS STILL GREEN AND MOIST ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014
VFR THRU TONIGHT. LIGHT SLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
MORE SELY BY LATE MORNING THRU THE EARLY AFTN. THE LATEST HRRR
AND RAP WANT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE WLY FLOW ALOFT BY LATE AFTN
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SWITCH TO WLY BY 20Z LASTING THRU 00Z WHILE
THE NAM AND GFS KEEP WINDS SSE. AT THIS TIME NOT REAL CONFIDENT
ABOUT WIND DIRECTION BY MID TO AFTN. NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME DRAINAGE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1147 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
BROUGHT LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS.
ALSO...ENDED PRECIP THREAT FOR KANSAS BORDER AREAS FOR THE
NIGHT. LW
UPDATE ISSUED AT 853 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LW
UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. EL PASO COUNTY RED FLAG WARNING
TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM. STILL WINDY BUT HUMIDITIES HAVE CLIMBED WELL
ABOVE CRITERIA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. LW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
CURRENTLY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST
ACROSS UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH MOST AREAS
GUSTING IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. TEMPERATURES ARE HOT WITH 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG WINDS TO PRODUCE VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ANY
OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE POSTPONED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE TRIED TO GET GOING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BUT HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE THE CONTINUED DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING THE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY STALLED OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE SHOULD START TO PROGRESS SOUTH AROUND 6 PM AND PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE STRONG
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH NORTH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH. THERE IS A
CONCERN THAT WINDS COULD BE STRONGER...IF THEY CAN GET HELP FROM
SOUTHWARD SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. SPEAKING OF CONVECTION...MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND INTO THE PALMER
DIVIDE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AND
DRY LIGHTNING IS A CONCERN. FOR NOW JUST HAVE ISOLATED COVERAGE
OVER THESE AREAS. OVER BACA COUNTY...THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR MODELS
ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER BACA COUNTY AROUND
04Z AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED ACTIVITY THERE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ONCE ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES OR MOVES INTO KANSAS.
SUNDAY...ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR REGION.
EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES GIVEN
THE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. AS FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW THE DISTURBANCE LOOKS TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE
ANY IMPACT ON OUR CWA...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH
WILL DRIFT EASTWARD. NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER SUNDAY EVENING. THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE LOW AND ONLY HAVE SILENT POPS. MAIN
WEATHER STORY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS THE DRY AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. ON MONDAY...GRIDS HAVE ALMOST THE
ENTIRE CWA REACHING THE METEOROLOGICAL CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG
WARNING. HOWEVER...LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES ONLY HAVE FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 226 AND 227 (EL PASO COUNTY) WITH CRITICAL FUELS. DECIDED
NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR ONLY THESE TWO
ZONES AND MID SHIFT CAN PROVIDE PLENTY OF LEAD TIME FOR A HIGHLIGHT.
IF FUELS DO BECOME CRITICAL...FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
LIKELY. ON TUESDAY...WINDS ALOFT ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER...BUT SUSPECT
WINDS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR EXCEED RED FLAG CRITERIA...WITH
HUMIDITIES REMAINING LOW. DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME...PERSONS SHOULD STILL BE VERY CAREFUL
WITH ANY OPEN FLAMES.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH WILL PASS
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
STRONGLY FAVOR KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORMS
WILL VERY LIKELY STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. OTHER CONCERN WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG
WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS... EVEN WITH MINIMAL MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. GRIDS ARE STINGY WITH POPS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...GIVEN THE LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE HIGHER
THAN POP VALUES. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.
FINALLY...HAVE CONCERNS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND
HUMIDITY ON WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM...REGION COULD STILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY COOL ENOUGH FOR
HUMIDITIES TO BE JUST ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA.
.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST AND A
WARM AND DRY RIDGE ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. GFS HAS +20C
TEMPERATURES AT 700MB OB SATURDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HOT
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW STAYS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION FOR
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS COULD PROVIDE
SOME WEAK UPSLOPE TO THE PLAINS...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE EDGE OFF
OF THE HEAT. A MODEST PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALSO MOVE
INTO THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
VERY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN VFR ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...INCLUDING KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES FROM 18Z TO 06Z...WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS LIKELY 21Z TO 03Z. LW
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1126 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF FORECAST GRIDS. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. LW
UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. EL PASO COUNTY RED FLAG WARNING
TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM. STILL WINDY BUT HUMIDITIES HAVE CLIMBED WELL
ABOVE CRITERIA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. LW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
CURRENTLY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST
ACROSS UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH MOST AREAS
GUSTING IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. TEMPERATURES ARE HOT WITH 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG WINDS TO PRODUCE VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ANY
OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE POSTPONED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE TRIED TO GET GOING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BUT HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE THE CONTINUED DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING THE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY STALLED OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE SHOULD START TO PROGRESS SOUTH AROUND 6 PM AND PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE STRONG
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH NORTH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH. THERE IS A
CONCERN THAT WINDS COULD BE STRONGER...IF THEY CAN GET HELP FROM
SOUTHWARD SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. SPEAKING OF CONVECTION...MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND INTO THE PALMER
DIVIDE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AND
DRY LIGHTNING IS A CONCERN. FOR NOW JUST HAVE ISOLATED COVERAGE
OVER THESE AREAS. OVER BACA COUNTY...THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR MODELS
ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER BACA COUNTY AROUND
04Z AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED ACTIVITY THERE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ONCE ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES OR MOVES INTO KANSAS.
SUNDAY...ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR REGION.
EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES GIVEN
THE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. AS FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW THE DISTURBANCE LOOKS TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE
ANY IMPACT ON OUR CWA...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH
WILL DRIFT EASTWARD. NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER SUNDAY EVENING. THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE LOW AND ONLY HAVE SILENT POPS. MAIN
WEATHER STORY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS THE DRY AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. ON MONDAY...GRIDS HAVE ALMOST THE
ENTIRE CWA REACHING THE METEOROLOGICAL CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG
WARNING. HOWEVER...LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES ONLY HAVE FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 226 AND 227 (EL PASO COUNTY) WITH CRITICAL FUELS. DECIDED
NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR ONLY THESE TWO
ZONES AND MID SHIFT CAN PROVIDE PLENTY OF LEAD TIME FOR A HIGHLIGHT.
IF FUELS DO BECOME CRITICAL...FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
LIKELY. ON TUESDAY...WINDS ALOFT ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER...BUT SUSPECT
WINDS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR EXCEED RED FLAG CRITERIA...WITH
HUMIDITIES REMAINING LOW. DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME...PERSONS SHOULD STILL BE VERY CAREFUL
WITH ANY OPEN FLAMES.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH WILL PASS
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
STRONGLY FAVOR KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORMS
WILL VERY LIKELY STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. OTHER CONCERN WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG
WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS... EVEN WITH MINIMAL MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. GRIDS ARE STINGY WITH POPS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...GIVEN THE LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE HIGHER
THAN POP VALUES. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.
FINALLY...HAVE CONCERNS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND
HUMIDITY ON WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM...REGION COULD STILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY COOL ENOUGH FOR
HUMIDITIES TO BE JUST ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA.
.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST AND A
WARM AND DRY RIDGE ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. GFS HAS +20C
TEMPERATURES AT 700MB OB SATURDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HOT
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW STAYS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION FOR
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS COULD PROVIDE
SOME WEAK UPSLOPE TO THE PLAINS...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE EDGE OFF
OF THE HEAT. A MODEST PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALSO MOVE
INTO THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
VERY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN VFR ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...INCLUDING KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES FROM 18Z TO 06Z...WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS LIKELY 21Z TO 03Z. LW
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1235 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN MOISTURE TO NORTHERN TO NORTHWEST
IOWA OVERNIGHT AND THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS INTACT AS THE
CURRENT SLOW MOVING CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA PRODUCING SOME EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL TAKE ITS TIME GETTING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THE 15.00Z HOPWRF AND THE 15.02Z HRRR HAVE THE STORMS PIVOTING
INTO WESTERN CWA BY B/T 08-10Z. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS
THEY MOVE EAST WITH THE LACK OF ANY INSTABILITY EAST OF INTERSTATE
35. WITH THE FURTHER DELAY OF CONVECTION...DES MOINES TO WATERLOO
AND SOUTHEAST LIKELY NOT SEE RAIN UNTIL AFTER 10Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS LIFTED OUT OF THE STATE FOR
THE MOST PART WITH ONLY SHOWERS REMAINING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE STATE TONIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE A STRONG LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE MOISTURE RIBBON JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND MOVE IN TO THE CWA TONIGHT. INITIAL CONVECTION WILL BE
OF ALL MODES OF CONVECTION...EXPECTED TO SEE IT DEVELOP INTO MORE
OF A WIND EVENT WITH TIME CARRIED SEVERE WORDING INTO THE PREDAWN
HOURS. WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING OVER THE
NORTH...WITH ISSUE A FFA FOR THE NORTHERN 2 TO 3 TIERS OF COUNTIES
FOR TONIGHT EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE 1 TO
1.5 THEY HAD TODAY. LOCAL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHER.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
SOME LINGERING STORMS MAY BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INITIALLY
SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE CWA WITH WEAK CAA
AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN. THEREFORE EXPECT
SKIES TO CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY...WITH A MILD DAY IN STORE.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST INTO
MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN FLOW EXPECTED
TO KICK OFF CONVECTION ACROSS WRN NE/NWRN KS SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DEVELOP THIS INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT AND SWING IT THROUGH IOWA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEREFORE HAVE ADDED IN SOME POPS ACROSS
THE CWA MONDAY FOR THIS TREND. OTHERWISE ACTIVE PATTERN STILL
SETTING UP FOR THE WEEK AHEAD...WITH OVERALL PATTERN EXPECTED TO
HAVE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAY UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH ENERGY
CONTINUING TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN US TROUGH SETTING OFF
CONVECTION DAILY ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH FINER DETAILS STILL
UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE HAVE MAINLY BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK WITH BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EXPECTED DURING THE
DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. UPPER LOW
THEN TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WARMER
INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY AROUND 90 AT TIMES WITH H85 TEMPS
HOVERING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND +20C OR HIGHER THROUGH THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...15/06Z
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH MUCH OF THE TAF AREA RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN
AND SEVERE WX. FOD AND POSSIBLY MCW BETTER POTENTIAL BUT ONLY HAVE
MVFR CIGS/VIS MENTIONED FOR A SHORT TIME FRAME OVERNIGHT AS STORMS
LOOK TO BE SLOW TO GET THROUGH THE STATE. OTHERWISE...WEAK CAA
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND HAVE WINDS AOA 12 KNOTS THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CALHOUN-
CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PODRAZIK
SHORT TERM...MS JUN 14
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1138 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2014
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
Line of storms has been producing wind gusts between 60 and 80
MPH. All the short term guidance continues to bring the linear MCS
across the forecast area through the morning. With the NAM and RAP
showing little convective inhibition ahead of the frontal boundary
(CNK is still in the upper 70s with dewpoints in the upper 60s),
think there is threat for damaging straight line winds.
UPDATE Issued at 949 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
The tornado threat appears to have diminished across Republic and
Cloud counties due to the discrete storms lifting into NEB.
However the overall threat for severe storms still remains
overnight from the storms in northwest KS that are producing
damaging straight line winds. After collaborating with media and
EM partners, we felt it was better to go ahead and cancel the
tornado watch now while storms are still a couple hours away. Then
we`ll deal with the northwest KS convection as it gets closer.
The latest RAP and NAM forecasts show surface based CIN remaining
near zero along and just ahead of the frontal boundary with some
instability and increasing deep layer shear. Because of this we
are anticipating that the damaging wind threat could persist
through the early morning hours as the storms move east.
&&
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
The main focus for the short term is on the potential for strong to
severe storms to develop late tonight through the overnight hours.
Water vapor imagery showed the mid-level low centered over Montana,
with the trough continuing to dig southward across the Rockies as it
pivots eastward. Models show this mid-level low remaining fairly
stationary into Sunday morning with the trough pivoting eastward
into the High Plains late tonight. This advancing trough will help
to push the area of low pressure currently situated over western
Kansas further east across the region. The combination of the
associated cold front and an embedded shortwave that models show
developing over northwest KS and tracking into southeast NE should
help to support the development of thunderstorms late tonight
through the overnight hours. Latest short range models show the
potential for a few discrete supercells developing near the
strengthening dryline and advancing cold front over northwest Kansas
and tracking northeastward into southern Kansas. These discrete
storms may barely clip far north central Kansas early this evening.
With the cap steadily weakening across that region, MUCAPE values
reaching into the 2500-3500 J/kg range, and steep lapse rates in the
mid-levels, these storms would likely be severe. However, it`s worth
noting that this area of instability is not co-located with the best
shear (which is further west), but still would expect 0-6km bulk
shear values of 30kts to possibly 40kts. The primary severe threats
over far north central Kansas would be large hail and damaging
winds, however with decent low-level helicities in place, cannot
rule out the potential for an isolated tornado or two in that
region.
As the embedded shortwave catches up with the cold front late
tonight, models have been suggesting that a QLCS may develop over
western/central Kansas and track eastward through the overnight
hours into Sunday morning. Models are in fairly good agreement in
having the cold front move into north central Kansas by 05z-06z and
along a line stretching from Hiawatha to Topeka by around 12z. Most
of the precipitation should be focused along and behind the front,
however could see some scattered storms develop ahead of the front
along any outflow boundaries. This line of storms is progged to
enter into far north central KS between 04z-06z and gradually
progress eastward through the overnight hours. While these storms
should weaken some as they track eastward, there still looks to be
enough instability and shear to support some severe thunderstorms
with large hail and damaging winds. The main concern through the
overnight period will be the potential for damaging straight line
winds as a very strong southwesterly low-level jet (60-70kts at
850MB) develops over central KS by 06z. Even though this low-level
jet will weaken some as it moves east, 0-6km bulk shear should be
upwards of 40-50kts.
By Sunday morning, this activity should be focused across far
northeast and east central Kansas. Models show the cold front
tracking just south of the forecast area by late morning, but it may
stall out over southeast KS and southern Missouri through the day.
As a result, could see additional shower and thunderstorm
development along this boundary extend as far north as into east
central Kansas. With 2000-3000J/kg of MUCAPE and 30-40kts of 0-6km
bulk shear, any storms that were to develop over east central KS
could become strong to severe with large hail and strong winds
possible.
As for temperatures, increased cloud cover tonight will keep
temperatures warmer across eastern KS (into the upper 60s/near 70
degrees), but may cool into the lower 60s over north central KS
after the storms track to the east. Highs for Sunday should reach
into the low/mid 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
By Sunday evening the cold front that pushes through the area will
stall out over SE KS as the mid/upper low lifts northeast into
Canada. Shower and thunderstorm develop is possible along this
boundary in far SE KS during the evening hours. Overnight the front
lifts northward as the return flow becomes established and low level
moisture increases. Precip chances appear to linger into Monday
morning until clearing out in the afternoon. High temps warm
into the low to mid 90s with the arrival of southwest flow and
warmer 850 MB temps. The dewpoints will also remain high and low
temps struggle to drop below the mid 70s on Monday night. Tuesday
should be mostly dry with high temps again in the low to mid 90s.
On Wednesday a strong mid/upper level trough digs into the central
Rockies, and as it approaches the models are suggesting a possible
lead short wave that would cause showers and thunderstorms during
the afternoon and evening. Although there is model disagreement on
the exact track and timing of these weak disturbances. On Wednesday
night the main trough lifts into the plains causing more widespread
precip across the region. A cold front is forecast to pass through
the area sometime on Thursday and or Friday therefore keeping the
chance for showers and thunderstorms around. The models do disagree
on if the trough that lifts out stays together as one piece of
energy or there is more phasing. This will play a role in the speed
of the front as well as if a surface low occludes and slowly drifts
through the northern plains and upper Midwest. Temps later in the
week will be regulated by the increased precip chances and possible
cloud cover. High temps generally stay in the 80s with lows in the
60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
Have made some minor timing adjustments to when convection should
impact the terminals. Otherwise the forecast seems to be on track.
There is the potential for brief IFR conditions as the convection
moves through.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
550 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES
THROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL
APPROACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
540 AM UPDATE: SAT AND RADAR IMAGERY AS WELL AS LATEST SFC OBS
INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT HRLY FCST LEADING INTO THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORN LOOKS REASONABLE...WITH NO CHGS NECESSARY ATTM.
ORGNL DISC: RADAR REF IMAGERY AND HRRR MODEL HRLY SIM FCST RADAR
REF IMAGERY CONT TO SHOW THE TREND OF STEADY RNFL CONTNG TO SLIDE
AWAY ENE FROM THE FA INTO NE BRUNSWICK PROV THRU THE MORN HRS.
WHAT THIS LEAVES IS SCT SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LEFT OVR LOW TO
MID LVL INSTABILITY DUE TO THE CLOSE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVG SE INTO THE GULF OF ME THIS MORN. THESE SHWRS...AND
EVENTUALLY THE BKN-OVC SC DECK WILL BEGIN TO DISSOLVE WNW TO ESE
ACROSS THE FA BY THIS AFTN...ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE AFTN. DUE TO THE ONSET DIRECTION OF
GREATER SUNSHINE... HIGHEST TEMPS THIS AFT WILL BE OVR THE FAR NW
AND WRN DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY FROM
THE NNW...SPCLY DURG THE AFTN WHEN MIXING WILL BE GREATEST...WITH
MAX GUST POTENTIAL OF 30 MPH BASED ON AT LEAST 5 KFT OF MIXING
FROM ALF.
SKIES WILL FINISH CLRG OVR THE FA THIS EVE...BUT A NNW SFC PRES
GRADIENT WILL KEEP A BREEZE GOING OVRNGT...SPCLY OVR ERN PTNS OF
THE FA. FOR THIS REASON...ONLY WRN VLYS WILL HAVE A CHC TO
EXPERIENCE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER ON MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOME LATE DAY CIRRUS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20
MPH. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY COULD MAKE FIRE
WEATHER A CONSIDERATION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S NORTH AND
MID TO UPPER 70S FOR DOWN EAST WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW ENSURING
WARM TEMPERATURES RIGHT TO COAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE
NIGHT AND CAP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AROUND BANGOR. THESE
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT TUESDAY MORNING AND ALLOW SUNSHINE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
TOWARDS THE COAST WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AS GUIDANCE IS HAVING
TROUBLE PHASING MOVEMENT OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OUT OF QUEBEC.
THIS TROUGH WILL BE KEY IN CREATING SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION. WILL
BROADEN THE WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL WEATHER FOLLOWING THE FRONT FOR
AN EXTENDED STRETCH. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MERITS CLOSE SCRUTINY FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS. THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ANY SURFACE HEATING WILL BE CRITICAL
ELEMENTS WHERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY MVFR CLGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORN WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY AFTN...WITH KFVE THAT LAST SITE TO EXPERIENCE
THIS TRANSITION BY MID AFTN. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN REMAIN VFR THRU
TNGT.
SHORT TERM: VFR UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A THREAT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL SITES. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST BLO SCA THRESHOLDS TDY
AND TNGT WITH NNW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. WE USED A BLEND
OF RAW MODEL AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR WINDS AND WW3 WV HTS...ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD FOR THE INNER HARBOR/BAY MZ052 DUE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE
COMPONENT AND SHORT FETCH WIND DIRECTION.
SHORT TERM: POSSIBLE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CALM CONDITIONS WITH THE THREAT OF FOG INCREASING BY
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
344 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES
THROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL
APPROACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR REF IMAGERY AND HRRR MODEL HRLY SIM FCST RADAR REF IMAGERY
CONT TO SHOW THE TREND OF STEADY RNFL CONTNG TO SLIDE AWAY ENE
FROM THE FA INTO NE BRUNSWICK PROV THRU THE MORN HRS. WHAT THIS
LEAVES IS SCT SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LEFT OVR LOW TO MID LVL
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE CLOSE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVG SE
INTO THE GULF OF ME THIS MORN. THESE SHWRS...AND EVENTUALLY THE
BKN-OVC SC DECK WILL BEGIN TO DISSOLVE WNW TO ESE ACROSS THE FA
BY THIS AFTN...ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE BY MID
TO LATE AFTN. DUE TO THE ONSET DIRECTION OF GREATER SUNSHINE...
HIGHEST TEMPS THIS AFT WILL BE OVR THE FAR NW AND WRN DOWNEAST
PTNS OF THE FA. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NNW...SPCLY
DURG THE AFTN WHEN MIXING WILL BE GREATEST...WITH MAX GUST
POTENTIAL OF 30 MPH BASED ON AT LEAST 5 KFT OF MIXING FROM ALF.
SKIES WILL FINISH CLRG OVR THE FA THIS EVE...BUT A NNW SFC PRES
GRADIENT WILL KEEP A BREEZE GOING OVRNGT...SPCLY OVR ERN PTNS OF
THE FA. FOR THIS REASON...ONLY WRN VLYS WILL HAVE A CHC TO
EXPERIENCE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER ON MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOME LATE DAY CIRRUS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20
MPH. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY COULD MAKE FIRE
WEATHER A CONSIDERATION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S NORTH AND
MID TO UPPER 70S FOR DOWN EAST WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW ENSURING
WARM TEMPERATURES RIGHT TO COAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE
NIGHT AND CAP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AROUND BANGOR. THESE
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT TUESDAY MORNING AND ALLOW SUNSHINE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
TOWARDS THE COAST WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AS GUIDANCE IS HAVING
TROUBLE PHASING MOVEMENT OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OUT OF QUEBEC.
THIS TROUGH WILL BE KEY IN CREATING SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION. WILL
BROADEN THE WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL WEATHER FOLLOWING THE FRONT FOR
AN EXTENDED STRETCH. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MERITS CLOSE SCRUTINY FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS. THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ANY SURFACE HEATING WILL BE CRITICAL
ELEMENTS WHERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY MVFR CLGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORN WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY AFTN...WITH KFVE THAT LAST SITE TO EXPERIENCE
THIS TRANSITION BY MID AFTN. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN REMAIN VFR THRU
TNGT.
SHORT TERM: VFR UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A THREAT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL SITES. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST BLO SCA THRESHOLDS TDY
AND TNGT WITH NNW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. WE USED A BLEND
OF RAW MODEL AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR WINDS AND WW3 WV HTS...ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD FOR THE INNER HARBOR/BAY MZ052 DUE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE
COMPONENT AND SHORT FETCH WIND DIRECTION.
SHORT TERM: POSSIBLE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CALM CONDITIONS WITH THE THREAT OF FOG INCREASING BY
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
551 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER FAR SRN SASKATCHEWAN. SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE LOW IS
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS THRU THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF
FEATURE...SHRA AND TSTMS ARE LINED UP FROM NRN OK TO SRN MN THEN ENE
INTO WI AND UPPER MI THOUGH THUNDER HAS YET TO REACH UPPER MI. IN
RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE PLAINS...LOW-LEVEL JET HAS
INCREASED TO 45KT TO AS HIGH AS 65KT PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. NOSE
OF LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THE SHRA/TSTMS SPREADING
ACROSS WI INTO UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.
RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A SHORTWAVE LIFTING N THRU ERN
MN. AS THIS SUBTLE FEATURE LIFTS N AND WEAKENS AND NRN END OF
LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS AS WELL...SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS SPREADING N INTO
UPPER MI WILL LIKELY WEAKEN OR AT LEAST SHIFT MORE TOWARD WRN UPPER
MI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE LINGERING AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE
FOCUSED. AS MAIN NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE SWINGS NE THIS AFTN...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND SOME TSRA TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG/AHEAD OF OCCLUDED FRONT THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS UPPER MI
THIS AFTN/EVENING. THERE APPEARS TO BE VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SFC BASED CONVECTION TODAY GIVEN STABLE SFC BASED LAYER EVIDENT ON
FCST SOUNDINGS AND LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER LIMITING
DAYTIME HEATING. ABOVE THE STABLE LAYER...MUCAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG IS INDICATED BY THE GFS WITH THE NAM A BIT HIGHER UP TO
500-750J/KG BRUSHING THE FAR S/SE FCST AREA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPEARS
TO BE OVER 30KT...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING
ANY SVR STORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...SINCE STRONG WIND FIELDS ARE PRESENT
TODAY...ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS PRODUCING MDT/HVY RAINFALL COULD VERY WELL
TRANSPORT STRONGER WINDS TO THE SFC. EVEN WITHOUT PCPN...LIMITED
MIXING ON FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAX WIND GUSTS COULD EASILY TOP OUT
AROUND 40MPH TODAY. THE GUSTY WINDS IN THIS MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE AIDED BY RIBBON OF HEALTHY SFC PRES FALLS OF 5-7MB/3HR
LIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. IF MIXING IS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN EXPECTED...WIND ADVY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE REACHED TODAY.
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTN.
WITH PASSAGE OF OCCLUDED FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF IMPRESSIVE DRYING AS
UPPER JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT A QUICK END TO SHRA/TSRA
FROM SW TO NE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THANKS TO ANOTHER LOW ORGANIZING ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MN WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
CENTRAL MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER AT 12Z MONDAY. EXPECT THE LOW TO
TRACK EAST ACROSS ONTARIO...CROSSING JAMES BAY MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
BRIEFLY SLIDE IN DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH NO PRECIP ANTICIPATED
ACROSS UPPER MI. A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL BUILD
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE
DRY WEATHER WILL NOT CONTINUE. LOW PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL SHIFT INTO MN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FCST MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL WE MOVE INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW AFTER
THAT GETS A BIT MORE JUMBLED. THE 15/00Z GFS IS MUCH DEEPER WITH THE
SYSTEM...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEEKER AND A BIT MOR PROGRESSIVE.
THE CANADIAN TENDS TO FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH
THURSDAY.
AS FOR SPECIFICS...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND GOOD MIXING ABOVE 800MB...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 80S OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI
/OR APPROX 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL/. CONTINUED TO GO TOWARD THE HIGH END
OF FCST GUIDANCE TEMP WISE. WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE A 90F
VALUE. RH VALUES COULD FALL INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE /DID GO ON
THE LOW SIDE FOR DEW POINTS AND RH/...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE
20-25MPH RANGE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE RAIN TODAY SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO SLIDE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE SW IN OUR WAA PATTERN. EXACT
TIMING/LOCATION IS DIFFICULT. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS OR HIGHER NEAR
THE WI BORDER...WHICH LOOKS TO FOLLOW THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
WELL. OTHERWISE EXPECT SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDS
OVER THE AREA EVEN AS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MOVE IN.
THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE OVERNIGHT INTO
TODAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY LIFTS FROM EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. WOULD EXPECT THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
RAIN AT KIWD/KCMX AS THE DRY AIR ATTEMPTS TO HOLD OFF RAIN AT KSAW.
EVEN WITH THE RAIN...EXPECT CEILINGS WILL NOT FALL BELOW VFR UNTIL
SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING OCCURS. AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AT EACH OF THE
TAF SITES. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR
NOW. ANY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AGAIN TO VFR WITH DRYING
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
FINALLY...LLWS WAS MENTIONED AT KIWD/KCMX DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE LOW. EVEN THOUGH THE SITES WILL BE GUSTY
(ESPECIALLY KIWD)...THOUGHT THE INCREASE IN WINDS AND VEERING
DIRECTION WARRANTED A MENTION INTO THE MORNING HRS. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TODAY...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO NEAR 30 KT ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT SAW AND IWD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
LOW PRES WILL LIFT THRU MN INTO NRN ONTARIO TODAY. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO E TO SE WINDS OF 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL RESULT IN
A STABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMP ENVIROMENT...HEALTHY PRES FALLS AND STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OCNL GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTN...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGH OBS PLATFORMS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE
COULD BE 2-3HRS OF FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS WHEN RIBBON OF MAX PRES
FALLS LIFTS ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTN. AS OCCLUDED FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE LAKE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S OR SW TONIGHT AND
DIMINISH. WITH RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER THE LAKE...EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THE FOG WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT ARE EXPECTED MON/MON NIGHT.
THEN...LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BECOME SITUATED BTWN A HUDSON BAY HIGH AND
A LOW PRES TROF SLOWLY ADVANCING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN EASTERLY WINDS LATER TUE THRU THU. WHILE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE UNDER 20KT...THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER WINDS
OVER THE WRN PART OF THE LAKE...PARTICULARY TOWARD THE MN N SHORE
DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. OTHERWISE...WINDS OVERALL
COULD BE STRONGER DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AND LOW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
105 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH EXITS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
GUSTS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER 23 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...FILLING IN BETWEEN 05 AND 09Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET AFTER 09Z
MONDAY.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 09Z MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE FAVORABLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN AND THE STABLE LAKE AGGREGATE OF
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING. LATEST KDTX .5Z IMAGERY
SUPPORTS A LAKE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER SECTIONS OF
MACOMB AND WAYNE COUNTIES IMMEDIATE TO THE LAKE ST CLAIR SHORELINE.
IN ADDITION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLIER DEPICTED A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR EASTERN THUMB. SURFACE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO VEER LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
DRIFTS OVERHEAD A MOVE AWAY FROM THE WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW NOW IN
PLACE. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN FALL OFF FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL FOLLOW...SHIFTING EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH CLOUD TO EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. RECENT RUC DATA SUPPORTS SOME HIGH CLOUD DRIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN YET THIS EVENING. TRANSPARENCY FOR CLOUDS
THIS FAR SOUTH WILL BE HIGH WHICH WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON LOWS
OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS MODERATION SHOULD LEAD TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREE WARMER. CURRENT DEWPOINTS RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID
40S SETS A GOOD BASELINE FOR AREAS NORTH OF M 59. IN THE URBAN
AREAS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD LOWER INTO THE LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING OUT OF
THE PLAINS. THE EFFECTIVE DEEPENING OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ESTABLISH A SOLID WARM AIR ADVECTIVE COMPONENT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE 850-925 MB LAYER WILL WARM ROUGHLY 5-6 DEGREES RELATIVE TO
TODAY...LEAVING 850 MB READINGS IN THE 15C RANGE. GIVEN AT LEAST A
MODESTLY MIXED PROFILE WITH FULL INSOLATION INTO THIS LAYER...THIS
SUPPORTS AN INCREMENTAL INCREASE IN HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S.
SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE NEAR SURFACE WIND FIELD WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A TOUCH COOLER ALONG THE LAKESHORE LOCALES
/MID-UPPER 70S/.
MAIN HEIGHT FALL CENTER WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AT IT
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL FILL
EASTWARD...ALLOWING AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO EASE ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BOUNDARY APPEARS DEFINED MORE BY
THE TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT...A PERIOD OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
COMMENCING LOCALLY 06Z-12Z MONDAY MORNING. A STEADY INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY THROUGH THIS PROCESS WILL INTRODUCE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONTAL SLOPE WORKS THROUGH. A
GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT WOULD SEEMINGLY RELY ON A
GREATER UPTICK IN FORCING PROVIDED VIA THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE
OR REMNANT MCV WITH SOME ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT.
THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH/EAST BY
EARLY MONDAY AS THE AREA BRIEFLY ENTERS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THERMAL
PROFILE REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THAT NOTED ON SUNDAY...SLIGHT
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW YIELDING A GREATER MIXING
POTENTIAL. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGHS MAKING A RUN INTO THE MIDDLE
80S...PARTICULARLY IF THE ONGOING DRY AIR ADVECTION SCOURS OUT ANY
RESIDUAL CLOUD EARLY ENOUGH DURING THE DAY.
OVERALL SETUP FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND BRING
CONTINUAL CHANCES FOR BOTH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR THE WEEK. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR THE START OF
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL ASSIST IN BRINGING RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. WITH WAA OCCURRING ON
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND CANNOT RULE OUT
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. SECOND IN THE SERIES OF WAVES IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. FROM THERE THE LONG RANGE
PATTERN BECOMES MUDDLED...AS OF NOW THERE LOOKS TO BE A BOUNDARY
THAT MAY SETUP ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
BE ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO BRING TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA...FROM THERE TEMPS SLOWLY GO BACK INTO THE
UPPER 70S. THE SETUP AS A WHOLE LOOKS TO START TO BREAK DOWN AT THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND THROUGH TONIGHT WINDS WILL EMERGE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TURNING DRIER ON MONDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY BECOME MORE
ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....HLO
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR/SS
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
257 AM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS OUT OF NORTHEAST MONTANA
EARLY THIS MORNING. CYCLONIC NW FLOW AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR CENTRAL AND EAST PARTS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. AREA OF PV WILL FINALLY EXIT OUR EAST BY MIDDAY...SO
HAVE EXPANDED ISOLATED MORNING NUISANCE SHOWERS TO INCLUDE ROSEBUD
COUNTY EAST. ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF BY 18-19Z PER LATEST RAP AS
MID LEVELS BEGIN TO WARM AND WE ADVECT DRIER AIR FROM THE NW.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO APPROACHING PACIFIC ENERGY FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER OUR WESTERN MTNS AND FOOTHILLS
BEGINNING AROUND 20Z...WITH GREATEST FORCING TO ARRIVE AFTER 00Z.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS
ESPECIALLY TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST PARTS THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME ACTIVITY LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS WAVE LIFTS TO NORTHEAST MT.
THIS CONVECTION WILL NOT BE SEVERE...BUT WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ON
THE ORDER OF 5KFT COULD RESULT IN SOME SMALL HAIL...AND FAIRLY DRY
LOW LEVELS COULD YIELD 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STRONGER
CELLS AT SUCH PLACES AS LIVINGSTON AND HARLOWTON.
A DEEP-FOR-MID-JUNE UPPER LOW WILL DROP OVER WA/OR MONDAY...
RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT SW FLOW OVER OUR WEST. THUS
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT PER THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MID
LEVEL BAROCLINICITY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN
OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND SOME OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE CLOSER TO THE DAKOTAS BORDER AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS
INTO EASTERN MT AS THE UPPER LOW AMPLIFIES...WITH NOCTURNAL
ASCENT AIDED BY A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. COULD SEE SOME HAIL
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS AT BAKER RISE TO NEAR 0.90 INCHES.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW MID JUNE NORMALS. WITH GOOD MIXING AND
W-NW WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WE SHOULD SEE LOW TO MID 70S FOR
HIGHS. COOLING WILL BEGIN OUT WEST ON MONDAY...BUT EASTERN AREAS
WILL SEE UPPER 70S TOMORROW.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW. MAIN ISSUE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT
MODEL THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS AND WILL CONTINUE TRENDING THE
FORECAST TOWARD ITS SOLUTION.
UPPER TROUGH WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO
SC/SE MT ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM AS JET
DIVERGENCE AND STRONG QG FORCING WILL MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE WAVE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WILL
IMPACT THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH. COLD
POCKET OF AIR MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING SNOW TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECREASING ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH EXITS
INTO THE DAKOTA`S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS AN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BEHIND
THE WAVE. DRY WEATHER RETURNING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 50S AND 60S. UPPER RIDGE LATE IN THE
WEEK WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE LOCATED FROM MILES CITY EAST TO BAKER
THIS MORNING. LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM BILLINGS
TO LIVINGSTON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RICHMOND
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 051/073 051/064 046/064 049/075 052/082 054/086
1/B 23/T 56/T 65/T 32/T 21/U 11/U
LVM 070 043/067 041/057 038/058 044/074 046/079 048/081
3/T 46/T 66/T 65/T 42/T 21/U 22/T
HDN 074 049/076 052/067 048/067 049/075 052/085 054/089
1/B 23/T 56/T 65/T 33/T 21/B 11/U
MLS 072 051/078 055/068 052/068 050/071 053/082 056/086
2/W 22/T 57/T 76/T 33/T 22/T 11/U
4BQ 073 050/079 053/069 051/068 050/071 051/082 053/085
2/W 02/T 45/T 76/T 43/T 22/T 11/U
BHK 068 049/076 054/071 051/067 049/068 049/077 051/081
2/W 02/T 56/T 76/T 43/T 32/T 11/U
SHR 070 046/075 048/063 045/064 045/072 047/081 049/084
1/B 12/T 36/T 64/T 43/T 31/B 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
411 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOL NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND CLEAR SKIES. SOME PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MONDAY WILL
FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE TIMING OF
CLRING SKIES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. SOUNDINGS STILL
SHOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THIS MORNING WITH
UPSLOPE FLW. USING THE RAP SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW CLOUDS
BREAKING UP BY 15Z AT BTV AND BTWN 15Z-17Z ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS
AND PARTS OF THE GREEN MTNS...AS MIXING DEVELOPS. THE WESTERN CPV
AND LWR CT VALLEY SHOULD CLR QUICKLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLW. PROGGED 85H TEMPS AROUND 10C WITH GOOD MIXING THIS
AFTN...SUPPORT HIGHS U60S MTNS TO MID 70S WARMER VALLEYS...WITH
MAYBE A FEW U70S POSSIBLE IN THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH
PRES IS LOCATED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...RESULTING
IN MAINLY CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
QUICKLY DROP THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED MTN
VALLEYS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S DACKS/NEK TO NEAR 50F
CPV/UHI. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED MID 30S FOR SLK...CRNT MAV FOR SLK
IS SHOWING 32F. ALSO...GIVEN PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH...EXPECT
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY CT RIVER VALLEY AND DEEPER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL VT. TEMPS WL QUICKLY WARM ON MONDAY WITH LLVL
WAA AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY
00Z TUES...SUPPORTING HIGHS M70S MTNS/NEK TO L/M 80S WARMER
VALLEY. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW DECAYING 5H VORT AND WEAK TROF
APPROACHING THE SLV AROUND 21Z AND MOVING INTO THE CPV BY 03Z
TUES. THIS SYSTEM WL BE ENCOUNTERING DEEP DRY LAYER ASSOCIATED
WITH RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY. THINKING A WEAK LINE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH VERY MINOR/LIGHT QPF. WL MENTION SCHC/LOW CHC POPS
BTWN 21Z MONDAY INTO 06Z TUES...BUT NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT...ONLY
A QUICK SHOWER AND BEST CHC SLV. TEMPS WL BE WARMER ON MONDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASED SFC DWPTS...SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND MORE
CLOUDS. EXPECTING LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE L/M 50S NEK TO L/M 60S
CPV/SLV.
TUESDAY...WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED 5H VORT
MOVING ACRS OUR NORTHERN ZNS BTWN 18Z-00Z. INCREASED LLVL MOISTURE
WL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND GREATER INSTABILITY. NAM/GFS
SHOW CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG WITH GREATEST VALUES ACRS
THE NORTHERN SLV ON TUES ALONG WITH LIS BTWN -1C AND -3C. SOME
INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED
ACRS OUR FA ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN VERY SLIGHT CHCS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE AREA WL REMAIN DRY WITH
GREATEST POPS ACRS THE DACKS/SLV AFT 18Z. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE PROFILES QPF AMOUNTS WL BE LIGHT AND ANY SHOWER WL ONLY BE
10 TO 20 MINUTES. 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...SUPPORTING
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 407 AM EDT SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LEANED TOWARDS THE EARLIER TIMING OF
THE ECMWF WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE ITS DEPICTION OF
MCS WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL LOOKS OVERDONE. HAVE GONE WITH POPS
ANYWHERE FROM 30 TO 50 PERCENT FOR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF FOR
THURSDAY. GFS MAINTAINS WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION
...WITH COLD FRONT BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...INDICATES DRIER AND COOLER NORTHWEST
FLOW. STAYED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH HAS MAINTAINED
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SCENARIO OVER PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. BY
FRIDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT OUR WEATHER WILL BE
DOMINATED BY CUTOFF LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THEY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S...THEN COOL TO SEASONAL NORMS LATER IN THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN
THE 50S...EXCEPT 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM
LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT WILL
GIVE WAY TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE AT MPV.
ANTICIPATING MAINLY VFR AT MSS/PBG...MIX OF VFR/MVFR AT
BTV/RUT...MVFR WITH BRF IFR POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK. CLOUDS LINGER
SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH CIGS VFR ALL SITES AFTER 12Z. CLEAR
SKIES THEN EXPECTED AFTER 16Z THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL GUST TO 15-18 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. COULD SEE FOG WITH
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE ALL TAF LOCATIONS 06Z-12Z MONDAY.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN PCPN POSSIBLE. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR
TUE-THU.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
407 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COOL NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND CLEAR SKIES. SOME PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MONDAY WILL
FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE TIMING OF
CLRING SKIES AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. SOUNDINGS STILL
SHOW MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THIS MORNING WITH
UPSLOPE FLW. USING THE RAP SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW CLOUDS
BREAKING UP BY 15Z AT BTV AND BTWN 15Z-17Z ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS
AND PARTS OF THE GREEN MTNS...AS MIXING DEVELOPS. THE WESTERN CPV
AND LWR CT VALLEY SHOULD CLR QUICKLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLW. PROGGED 85H TEMPS AROUND 10C WITH GOOD MIXING THIS
AFTN...SUPPORT HIGHS U60S MTNS TO MID 70S WARMER VALLEYS...WITH
MAYBE A FEW U70S POSSIBLE IN THE LWR CT RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH
PRES IS LOCATED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...RESULTING
IN MAINLY CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
QUICKLY DROP THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED MTN
VALLEYS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S DACKS/NEK TO NEAR 50F
CPV/UHI. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED MID 30S FOR SLK...CRNT MAV FOR SLK
IS SHOWING 32F. ALSO...GIVEN PLENTY OF LEFTOVER BL RH...EXPECT
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY CT RIVER VALLEY AND DEEPER
VALLEYS OF CENTRAL VT. TEMPS WL QUICKLY WARM ON MONDAY WITH LLVL
WAA AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM BTWN 12-14C BY
00Z TUES...SUPPORTING HIGHS M70S MTNS/NEK TO L/M 80S WARMER
VALLEY. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW DECAYING 5H VORT AND WEAK TROF
APPROACHING THE SLV AROUND 21Z AND MOVING INTO THE CPV BY 03Z
TUES. THIS SYSTEM WL BE ENCOUNTERING DEEP DRY LAYER ASSOCIATED
WITH RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE ACRS OUR CWA...ALONG WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY. THINKING A WEAK LINE OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH VERY MINOR/LIGHT QPF. WL MENTION SCHC/LOW CHC POPS
BTWN 21Z MONDAY INTO 06Z TUES...BUT NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT...ONLY
A QUICK SHOWER AND BEST CHC SLV. TEMPS WL BE WARMER ON MONDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASED SFC DWPTS...SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND MORE
CLOUDS. EXPECTING LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE L/M 50S NEK TO L/M 60S
CPV/SLV.
TUESDAY...WESTERLY FLW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED 5H VORT
MOVING ACRS OUR NORTHERN ZNS BTWN 18Z-00Z. INCREASED LLVL MOISTURE
WL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND GREATER INSTABILITY. NAM/GFS
SHOW CAPE VALUES BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG WITH GREATEST VALUES ACRS
THE NORTHERN SLV ON TUES ALONG WITH LIS BTWN -1C AND -3C. SOME
INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE BUT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED
ACRS OUR FA ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN VERY SLIGHT CHCS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE AREA WL REMAIN DRY WITH
GREATEST POPS ACRS THE DACKS/SLV AFT 18Z. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE PROFILES QPF AMOUNTS WL BE LIGHT AND ANY SHOWER WL ONLY BE
10 TO 20 MINUTES. 85H TEMPS WARM ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO...SUPPORTING
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT SATURDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET FORECAST PERIOD IS
SHAPING UP FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS
GENERALLY ZONAL ON TUESDAY WITH WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
(+15C TO +16C). THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OUR WARMEST DAY WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. ABSENCE
OF FORCING FOR ASCENT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS
POINT. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A TRANSITION TO A NWLY FLOW REGIME
ALOFT FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
TROUGH PASSAGE...INCLUDED A 30-40 POP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THRU
WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL TROUGH...WITH POSSIBLE MCS MOVING THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT THIS POINT...DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS CONVECTIVE FEATURE IN THE ABSENCE
OF ANY SUPPORT FROM THE GFS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. THUS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW 80S. A DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS THEN
WORKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH PW
VALUES FALLING FROM NEAR 1-1.1" ON WEDNESDAY...DOWN TO 0.5-0.6"
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT WEATHER
AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 74-78F RANGE...BUT SKIES SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT WILL
GIVE WAY TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE AT MPV.
ANTICIPATING MAINLY VFR AT MSS/PBG...MIX OF VFR/MVFR AT
BTV/RUT...MVFR WITH BRF IFR POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK. CLOUDS LINGER
SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH CIGS VFR ALL SITES AFTER 12Z. CLEAR
SKIES THEN EXPECTED AFTER 16Z THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL GUST TO 15-18 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. COULD SEE FOG WITH
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE ALL TAF LOCATIONS 06Z-12Z MONDAY.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN PCPN POSSIBLE. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR
TUE-THU.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
136 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY BRING SUNSHINE
TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS ON SUNDAY AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW. NOTICEABLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...BUT SUNSHINE AND
LOWER HUMIDITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXIST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED FCST TO REMOVE MENTION OF POPS
AND ADJUSTED TEMPS UP BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES BASED ON MORE CLOUDS AND
NW WINDS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACRS
THE NORTHERN CPV AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING. THESE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH NW
WINDS OF 4 TO 8 KNOTS WL KEEP TEMPS IN THE U40S MTNS TO M/U 50S
WARMER VALLEYS TONIGHT.
PRIOR DISCUSSION...MINOR UPDATE TO REFLECT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACROSS OUR NRN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS UPPER
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC. SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
SLV/DACKS EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO CLOSING SHORTWAVE
ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL NEAR 500 MB. NEARLY ALL MESOSCALE
MODELS INCLUDING LATEST RAP INDICATES SRN QUEBEC SHOWERS WILL DROP
SOUTH IN A DECAYING FASHION INTO OUR NRN VT COUNTIES THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT OR SO WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGH AND
LOSS OF INSOLATION. BASED OFF THIS THINKING HAVE INTRODUCED 20/40
POPS ACCORDINGLY IN THESE NORTHERN LOCALES...BUT ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. MANY AREAS TO
REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WIDELY VARIED AS OF 7 PM WITH MANY RAIN-
COOLED AREAS ACROSS NRN NY ALREADY IN THE 50S AND A SPOT 52F AT
KSLK...MORE REMINISCENT OF EARLY SPRING NOT MID-JUNE. WITH AT
LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL
APPEAR ON TRACK...GENERALLY 45 TO 55. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF PATCHY
FOG AS WELL...BUT PRONOUNCED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS SHOULD FOSTER ENOUGH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ATOP THE NOCTURNAL
BOUNDARY LAYER TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE. HAVE A GREAT
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT SATURDAY...WARMING TREND TO TAKE PLACE WITH
SUNSHINE...DRY WEATHER...AND LOWER HUMIDITIES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS WILL GO AWAY EARLY. THUS EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES AT 925 MILLIBARS BEGIN TO WARM AND THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING UP INTO THE 70S. LOWER
DEW POINTS WILL ALSO HELP AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES AT 925 MB WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION. DESPITE
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...DEW POINTS
WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AND THAT COULD HELP WARM THE
TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE ALONG WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THUS
LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S...BUT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES REMAINING IN
THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS FEATURE
WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE SO NOT THINKING
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT SATURDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET FORECAST PERIOD IS
SHAPING UP FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS
GENERALLY ZONAL ON TUESDAY WITH WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
(+15C TO +16C). THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OUR WARMEST DAY WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. ABSENCE
OF FORCING FOR ASCENT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS
POINT. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A TRANSITION TO A NWLY FLOW REGIME
ALOFT FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
TROUGH PASSAGE...INCLUDED A 30-40 POP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THRU
WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL TROUGH...WITH POSSIBLE MCS MOVING THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT THIS POINT...DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS CONVECTIVE FEATURE IN THE ABSENCE
OF ANY SUPPORT FROM THE GFS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. THUS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW 80S. A DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS THEN
WORKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH PW
VALUES FALLING FROM NEAR 1-1.1" ON WEDNESDAY...DOWN TO 0.5-0.6"
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT WEATHER
AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 74-78F RANGE...BUT SKIES SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT WILL
GIVE WAY TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE AT MPV.
ANTICIPATING MAINLY VFR AT MSS/PBG...MIX OF VFR/MVFR AT
BTV/RUT...MVFR WITH BRF IFR POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK. CLOUDS LINGER
SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH CIGS VFR ALL SITES AFTER 12Z. CLEAR
SKIES THEN EXPECTED AFTER 16Z THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL GUST TO 15-18 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. COULD SEE FOG WITH
A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE ALL TAF LOCATIONS 06Z-12Z MONDAY.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN PCPN POSSIBLE. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR
TUE-THU.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
103 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY BRING SUNSHINE
TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS ON SUNDAY AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW. NOTICEABLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...BUT SUNSHINE AND
LOWER HUMIDITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXIST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED FCST TO REMOVE MENTION OF POPS
AND ADJUSTED TEMPS UP BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES BASED ON MORE CLOUDS AND
NW WINDS. CRNT RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACRS
THE NORTHERN CPV AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT MTNS...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUING. THESE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH NW
WINDS OF 4 TO 8 KNOTS WL KEEP TEMPS IN THE U40S MTNS TO M/U 50S
WARMER VALLEYS TONIGHT.
PRIOR DISCUSSION...MINOR UPDATE TO REFLECT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER/SPRINKLE ACROSS OUR NRN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AS UPPER
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC. SHOWERS/ISOLD
STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
SLV/DACKS EARLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO CLOSING SHORTWAVE
ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL NEAR 500 MB. NEARLY ALL MESOSCALE
MODELS INCLUDING LATEST RAP INDICATES SRN QUEBEC SHOWERS WILL DROP
SOUTH IN A DECAYING FASHION INTO OUR NRN VT COUNTIES THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT OR SO WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGH AND
LOSS OF INSOLATION. BASED OFF THIS THINKING HAVE INTRODUCED 20/40
POPS ACCORDINGLY IN THESE NORTHERN LOCALES...BUT ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED. MANY AREAS TO
REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WIDELY VARIED AS OF 7 PM WITH MANY RAIN-
COOLED AREAS ACROSS NRN NY ALREADY IN THE 50S AND A SPOT 52F AT
KSLK...MORE REMINISCENT OF EARLY SPRING NOT MID-JUNE. WITH AT
LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATER TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL
APPEAR ON TRACK...GENERALLY 45 TO 55. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF PATCHY
FOG AS WELL...BUT PRONOUNCED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS SHOULD FOSTER ENOUGH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ATOP THE NOCTURNAL
BOUNDARY LAYER TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE. HAVE A GREAT
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT SATURDAY...WARMING TREND TO TAKE PLACE WITH
SUNSHINE...DRY WEATHER...AND LOWER HUMIDITIES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MOST OF THE
CLOUDS WILL GO AWAY EARLY. THUS EXPECTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES AT 925 MILLIBARS BEGIN TO WARM AND THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES GETTING UP INTO THE 70S. LOWER
DEW POINTS WILL ALSO HELP AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES AT 925 MB WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION. DESPITE
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...DEW POINTS
WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE AND THAT COULD HELP WARM THE
TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE ALONG WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THUS
LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S...BUT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES REMAINING IN
THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY
NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS FEATURE
WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE SO NOT THINKING
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 332 PM EDT SATURDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET FORECAST PERIOD IS
SHAPING UP FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS
GENERALLY ZONAL ON TUESDAY WITH WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
(+15C TO +16C). THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OUR WARMEST DAY WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. ABSENCE
OF FORCING FOR ASCENT...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS
POINT. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A TRANSITION TO A NWLY FLOW REGIME
ALOFT FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE
TROUGH PASSAGE...INCLUDED A 30-40 POP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THRU
WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL TROUGH...WITH POSSIBLE MCS MOVING THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL. AT THIS POINT...DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE LIKELIHOOD OF THIS CONVECTIVE FEATURE IN THE ABSENCE
OF ANY SUPPORT FROM THE GFS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. THUS...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOW 80S. A DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS THEN
WORKS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH PW
VALUES FALLING FROM NEAR 1-1.1" ON WEDNESDAY...DOWN TO 0.5-0.6"
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT WEATHER
AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 74-78F RANGE...BUT SKIES SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE
WAY TO VASTLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. STRATUS DECK OF
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SLK/BTV/MPV IN NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECTING
BIGGEST IMPACT IN THE FORM OF CEILING REDUCTIONS. ANTICIPATING MAINLY
VFR AT MSS/PBG...MIX OF VFR/MVFR AT BTV...DEVELOPING MVFR AT
MPV/RUT...AND IFR GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR AT SLK. SOME 3-6SM
BR ALSO LIKELY AT SLK...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF REDUCTION
ELSEWHERE IN A COUPLE RAIN SHOWERS. CONDITIONS DRASTICALLY
IMPROVE ON SUNDAY TO VFR AT ALL SITES AS SKIES CLEAR. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT PICK BACK UP TO 5-10 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY...WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-18 KNOTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY MPV.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. COULD SEE FOG
WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE ALL TAF LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN PCPN POSSIBLE. A FEW AFTN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR TUE- THURSDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS/MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
133 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
RADAR IMAGERY NEARLY VOID OF ANY ECHOS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...SO HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS.
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA SHOULD ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA 9-12Z...INCREASING IN COVERAGE ON SUNDAY AS DAYTIME
HEATING COMMENCES DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE.
EXPANDED THE AERIAL COVERAGE OF FOG WORDING NOW THROUGH 15Z WITH
NUMEROUS SITES NOW REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS APPROACH ZERO. WILL MONITOR THE FOG FOR POSSIBLE
FURTHER ACTION. OTHER CHANGE WAS TO DROP TEMPERATURES A BIT ACROSS
THE WEST WHERE WE`RE ALREADY SEEING MID TO UPPER 40S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED ACROSS
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. WILL UPDATED FOR THIS AND ADDED SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 825 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA...SO ADDED AND TAILORED POPS FOR THIS TREND. RAIN
ENDING SOUTH CENTRAL AND DIMINISHING EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MADE CHANGES BASED ON LATEST SAT/RADAR TRENDS ADDING RAP MODEL
FORECAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE RAP MODEL HAS THE RENDS
RIGHT BUT IS A BIT SLOW IN ENDING THE PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL.
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING
SUGGESTING THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BUT T WILL END AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTION
CHANCES AND PLACEMENT.
CURRENTLY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN BACK NORTHWEST
TOWARDS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. AN IMPULSE OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD...PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST RADARS INDICATE BACK EDGE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
FROM AROUND BOWMAN TO DICKINSON NORTHWARD TO STANLEY. TO THE WEST
OF THIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER EASTERN MONTANA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE 16 UTC HRRR STILL INDICATES
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN MONTANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ROTATING INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. THUS WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
TO THE EAST...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS ALSO TRACKING ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE FAR SOUTHEAST FROM JAMESTOWN SOUTH
THROUGH OAKES IS THE ONLY AREA OF THE CWA INDICATING MINOR
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. BUT WITH
CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE JAMES WILL KNOCK DOWN THE
MEAGER AT BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONGER CELLS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT OVERALL THE SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP SOME
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AND UPPER LOW.
THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SUNDAY...KEEPING
THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. BUT THE
RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
PERHAPS ABOUT A 12HR TO 18HR WINDOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WHERE THERE WILL NOT BE A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS A
WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW
QUICKLY RETURNS BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER SLOW MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SURFACE LOW
REFLECTION ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY. WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES RIDING OVER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG WITH SOME
JET STREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME ENHANCING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...EXPECT
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS
AND NOSE NORTH FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
THIS WOULD PRODUCE A WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN. UNTIL
THEN...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE SHORT TERM WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ON A DAILY BASIS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
MAIN AVIATION HAZARD NOW THROUGH 15Z WILL BE AREAS OF FOG AND LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS. ALL TERMINALS MAY
BE IMPACTED...ESPECIALLY KBIS AND KMOT. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. BEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE MVFR
CIGS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...KISN-KMOT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
328 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
LINEAR MCS CONTINUES EAST ACROSS KS...WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG
ITS GUST FRONT ON ITS SWRN FLANK DOWN INTO NRN OK. THIS PORTION OF
THE LINE IS MORE PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AND THUS THE
OUTFLOW IS SURGING OUT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE...LIMITING ITS
INTENSITY. NEVERTHELESS...NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS ARE FEEDING INTO THE
SYSTEM AND BEING LIFTED BY THE GUST FRONT...SO IT IS AT LEAST
KEEPING THE STORMS GOING. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR KEEP
THE TAIL END OF THE MCS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE KS BORDER...ALTHOUGH
THE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT HAS SHOWN SO FAR.
THERE IS STILL SOME AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE RISK...ESPECIALLY NW
OF TULSA...HOWEVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
SUB-SEVERE. WHAT IS LEFT OF THIS MCS WILL TRAVEL EAST TOWARD THE
OZARKS THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. A BOUNDARY WILL BE LEFT
FROM THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WHICH WILL PROBABLY RETREAT NORTH
SOME DURING THE DAY AS STRONG SOUTH WINDS PUSH IT IN THAT
DIRECTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON STORM WILL LIKELY BE
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER AS WELL. SOME POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT
STORMS EXISTS NORTH OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP...WHICH MAY END
UP BEING NORTH AND EAST OF THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS.
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND WARMING MID LVL TEMPS WILL BRING
DRY...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IS STILL FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTH OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHILE A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING MORE TSTORM CHANCES
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
RIDGING IS FORECAST BY THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF BY NEXT WEEKEND
SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AT THE TAIL END.
LACY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 88 72 89 75 / 40 20 10 10
FSM 90 72 92 73 / 30 10 10 10
MLC 88 73 88 75 / 20 10 10 10
BVO 87 69 89 74 / 50 40 10 10
FYV 85 68 86 72 / 30 20 10 10
BYV 85 68 87 71 / 40 20 10 10
MKO 88 72 89 73 / 30 20 10 10
MIO 85 69 88 74 / 60 40 10 10
F10 87 72 88 74 / 30 20 10 10
HHW 88 72 89 72 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1106 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING MOVING OUT OF NERN WY INTO SWRN
SD/BLKHLS...AND THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO
PROGRESS EWD ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES THIS EVE SO HAVE UPPER THE POPS
CONSIDERABLE FOR THAT AREA. REST OF FCST MOSTLY UNCHANGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS CLOSED LOW OVER MONTANA WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COMPLEX OF MORNING STORMS HAS
EXITED THE AREA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WHILE ANOTHER LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND
SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND IS MOVING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AT THE
MOMENT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TROF HAS SHIFTED INTO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH NORTHERN ROCKIES HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE 60S...WITH SOME 50S ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS. WINDS ARE BREEZY IN SPOTS OUT OF THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST.
TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN START TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET IN
MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY COULD LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL SD AS TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE CLIPS THE AREA. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE BLACK HILLS.
SUNDAY...ZONAL FLOW/WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FOR A
BRIEF TIME AS CLOSED LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
WILL BRING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BRISK
WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA ON BACK EDGE OF EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
DIFFERENT SOMEWHAT ON THE EXACT DISPOSITION OF EACH SHORTWAVE...AS
WELL AS ANY 500MB CUTOFF LOWS. BUT THE PATTERN STRONGLY SUGGESTS
ACTIVE WEATHER WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AND AT LEAST A
COUPLE DAYS OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL WAVER
SOFTLY ON EITHER SIDE OF SEASONAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
AREA OF SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL MOVE THROUGH SCNTRL SD OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO LINGER OVER THE BLKHLS
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...HELGESON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
230 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING...AND WILL START TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AS A
DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TODAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS WASHINGTON AND OREGON
TONIGHT...DEVELOPING INTO AN UPPER LOW CENTERED IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON MONDAY FOR MORE SHOWERS OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA...AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE LOW WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AFFECTING SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON AGAIN. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHT WARMING AS HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH WASHINGTON AND OREGON EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH MAINLY MID AND UPPER CLOUDS WITH NOT A LOT SHOWING UP
ON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR YET. HOWEVER...AS THE
PARENT UPPER TROUGH THAT IS ALONG THE B.C. AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIG SOUTH TODAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SAY ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH AND
GIVE A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE MODEST...A
TENTH OF AN INCH AT THE MOST...WITH THE COAST AND NORTHERN ZONES
FROM ABOUT SALEM NORTHWARD MOST AT RISK. CANNOT RULE OUT EUGENE
THOUGH EITHER. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME ECHOES APPROACH THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE LANGLEY HILL WASHINGTON COASTAL RADAR THAT
SUPPORT THIS IDEA. SO LOOK FOR CLOUDY SKIES...CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...AND A FEW SHOWERS TODAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH TONIGHT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...AND THE MODELS PAINT SOME MORE LIGHT QPF IN THE RESULTANT
ONSHORE FLOW...FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THEN ON MONDAY...WE
SEE AN UPPER LOW FORM OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTHEAST OREGON THAT WILL BRING EVEN MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE THE
WETTEST AND COOLEST PERIOD OF THIS EPISODE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER AS WELL MONDAY AS THE COLD POOL IS NEARBY AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION...SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE LOWERING IN THE CASCADES...AND THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ABOVE THE PASSES...AND ESPECIALLY
AFFECTING CLIMBING ON AREA MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
THE UPPER LOW LINGERS EAST OF THE CASCADES ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
SHOWERS CONTINUING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
FOR ONE MORE FAIRLY CLOUDY AND COOL DAY. TOLLESON
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES FARTHER EAST WITH SHOWERS ENDING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST
IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE COAST LATE THURSDAY AND MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY FOR SOME MORE SHOWERS. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BREAK
IN THE WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM COMES IN NEXT WEEK.
TOLLESON
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS PRIMARILY AROUND 5K FT
UNDER MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AROUND 3KT FT AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TODAY AS THE NEXT FRONT
APPROACHES THIS MORNING. THE MAIN THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTH COAST. THE WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND LATER
THIS MORNING...BUT THE INLAND TAF SITES MAY BE A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
CIGS FROM ROUGHLY 12Z-18Z SUN WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...CURRENT VFR CIGS AT 5K FT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
TO MVFR CIGS AROUND 2K-3K FT BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z SUN. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MIGHT MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL THROUGH THIS EVENING. /27
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE TODAY AND THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW MODERATE W-NW SWELLS PASSING THROUGH THE
WATERS. VARYING DEGREES OF WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...MOSTLY 15 KT OR
LESS...EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE FULL MOON IS GENERATING STRONG TIDAL FLUCTUATIONS...RESULTING IN
VERY STRONG FLOOD AND EBB CURRENTS. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS ON THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR WILL BE HAZARDOUS DURING THE VERY STRONG MORNING
EBBS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALSO OF NOTE ARE THE SIGNIFICANT MINUS
TIDES EXPECTED AFTER THE EBBS ON THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS. PYLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 5 AM
TO 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1035 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will impact the region
every afternoon and evening through Tuesday with temperatures
remaining on the cool side. Temperatures will then warm for the
rest of the week, with just a few mountain showers late in the
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: Satellite imagery shows an upper level front over NW
Washington dropping southeast. This will result in plenty of mid
and high level clouds over the Inland Northwest tonight. In
addition, large scale lift will be on the increase near the
Canadian border. This combined with weak-moderate mid level
instability with 700-500mb Theta-e lapse rates between 0-1C/km
should keep showers going through the night over the northern
mountains. The 00z GFS, NAM, and HRRR are in general agreement
with this idea. Areas near the Canadian Border will be most
favored such as Curlew, Metaline Falls, Northport, and Bonners
Ferry. Radar as of 830 pm was already showing signs of this with
increasing returns around Oroville and Chesaw despite the setting
sun when showers typically fizzle out. The forecast has been
updated to increase precipitation chances overnight for the
northern mountains...and adjust sky cover upward a bit over most
of Central and Eastern Washington. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
06z TAFS: The next system will spread into the area on Sunday.
Increased lift and instability ahead of this system near the
Canadian border will result in showers north of the KGEG-KCOE
corridor tonight. Afternoon heating will generate another round
of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday mainly over the
mountains...especially north of the Columbia Basin. CIGS over the
eastern TAF sites have risen to VFR with models showing VFR
conditions likely persisting through 06z Monday. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 47 66 45 65 45 66 / 10 30 20 20 20 40
Coeur d`Alene 47 65 45 64 43 65 / 20 40 30 40 30 50
Pullman 44 64 42 62 41 64 / 10 30 20 20 20 30
Lewiston 51 72 51 69 49 71 / 0 20 20 20 20 30
Colville 50 65 46 63 44 70 / 40 50 40 50 50 30
Sandpoint 47 64 47 62 42 63 / 30 50 40 50 50 50
Kellogg 45 62 45 61 42 63 / 30 50 50 50 40 60
Moses Lake 53 73 49 73 50 75 / 0 10 10 40 30 10
Wenatchee 55 69 51 71 53 74 / 10 10 10 20 20 10
Omak 50 69 48 70 48 75 / 20 30 30 40 30 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1145 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS EVENING HAS BEEN ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS A
POTENT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH IN
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES INTO A DRY/STABLE AIR MASS IN WESTERN
WISCONSIN. THIS RAIN APPEARS TO BE TIED TO THE REMNANTS OF AN MCV
THAT MOVED THROUGH FROM IOWA TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLIER TODAY.
PART OF IT WAS ABLE TO RIDE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET...BUT CONTINUES TO FADE AS IT RUNS AWAY FROM THE DEEPER
FORCING/INSTABILITY WHICH IS WELL OUT TO THE WEST IN THE VICINITY
OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH IN WESTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/RECENT MODEL TRENDS...IT APPEARS THAT THERE
WILL BE A DRY PERIOD LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION FORMING IN THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. THE
LLJ IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SO WILL BE
WATCHING THAT AREA TONIGHT FOR ANY POTENTIAL STRONG STORMS.
THE NEXT WIDESPREAD ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE AS THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. THE HRRR HAS BEEN TRENDING DRY ALONG THIS FRONT
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT MOST OTHER GUIDANCE HAS AT LEAST SOME SORT
OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG IT. THE 15.00Z RAP HAS THE FRONT
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN BY 18Z WITH THE MAIN BELT OF MLCAPE COMING
IN AHEAD OF IT IN A ZONE WHERE LOW/MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR APPEARS TO
BE AT A MINIMUM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. A WEAK WARM FRONT ARCS
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE KANSAS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
MAIN AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA SO FAR TODAY BUT HAS BEEN SLOWLY ADVANCING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT
HAS BEEN SLOWED BY THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS THAT KEEP FEEDING THIS DRY AIR INTO THE LEADING EDGE.
THE 14.12Z HI-RES ARW AND 14.16Z HRRR ARE BOTH IN AGREEMENT IN
HOLDING THIS ACTIVITY TOGETHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT LIFTING
IT NORTHEAST IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH THIS TREND IN
MIND...WILL SO A SLOW BUT GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY LATE EVENING WILL HAVE 60 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3RD OF THE AREA WHILE REMAINING DRY
ACROSS THE EAST.
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
WYOMING AND COLORADO WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES WHILE TAKING ON MORE OF NEGATIVE
TILT. BOTH THE 14.12Z NAM AND GFS SHOW THE BEST PV ADVECTION IN
THE 500-300 MB LAYER STAYING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BUT SHOULD
STILL HAVE A PERIOD OF WEAK PV ADVECTION COME ACROSS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BECOME VERY STRONG
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW CREATING STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO WESTERN IOWA WHERE AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING. THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT THEN SHIFTS NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE NOSE OF THIS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTIONS AROUND 09Z OR SO AND BY 12Z THIS AXIS OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE AREA. EXPECTING TO SEE THE SEVERE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TRANSLATE
NORTHEAST WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BY THE TIME THE STORMS
ARRIVE IN THE AREA...THEY SHOULD BE ELEVATED AND WILL STILL HAVE
UP TO 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE 1KM TO WORK WITH. DESPITE
THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...THE SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK THAT GREAT IN THE
ELEVATED LAYER WITH ONLY AROUND 20 KNOTS SHOWN. THE BETTER SHEAR
LAGS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA UNDER THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE INCOMING JET CORE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO...BUT WITH THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
STORMS...NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT TO OCCUR TO
TONIGHT.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND THE NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ALL THE 14.12Z
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY 18Z SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT ABOUT TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE FRONT A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...SOME POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE OVER THE
EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ML CAPES SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET TO AROUND
1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AROUND 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR.
THE OTHER THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS SHOULD INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES
WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 3.5 KM. THIS SHOULD MAKE THE
CONVECTION EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
POSSIBLE. BELIEVE THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH AND NOT
TRAINING THAT FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE ISSUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS TEMPORARILY BUILD OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
RELOADING WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL STILL BE BACK OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET EJECTED OUT OF THIS
AND COME ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THE BEST PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHWEST BUT
AT THE LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT THAT GOES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
START TO COME BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS SHOULD WORK BACK
INTO CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND THEN TO ABOUT THE
IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG AND GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT. BETTER CAPE MAY IN PLACE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG
OF ML CAPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. 0-6 KM SHEAR LOOKS PRETTY
DECENT AS WELL WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS.
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME A THREAT AS
WELL. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 4 KM AND COULD
TRAIN WEST TO EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS AND THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY HINGE ON HOW
MUCH RAIN FALLS TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
THE COMPLEX THAT FORMS MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE VERY FAR TO THE
SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE WESTERN LONG WAVE
TROUGH. AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COME OUT OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH...SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
14.12Z ECMWF THEN SUGGESTS THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL START TO LIFT OUT
WHILE THE GFS CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
KEEPING SOME RAIN OVER THE REGION. THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT
SUGGESTS THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION AND A
FLASH FLOODING THREAT. WILL MAINTAIN 40 TO 60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
AS LONG AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN
DOWN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. RST WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF SEEING THE
STORMS GET INTO THEM WITH LSE MORE BORDERLINE. WITH CONFIDENCE
HIGHER THAT THEY WILL GET INTO RST...WILL KEEP THE TEMPO GROUP
GOING FOR IFR VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE MORNING BUT THEN SKIES SHOULD CLEAR UP
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1007 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE EXCEPT FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH INCREASED POP`S FOR
THE GULF COASTAL ZONE INCLUDING THE NAPLES METRO AREAS. THE
EASTERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS AND EXTENDS THROUGH
A DEEPER LAYER FROM THE SURFACE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS SHOULD
HELP TO MAINTAIN CHANCES OF CONVECTION AND MORE COVERAGE IN THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN ZONES OF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS. AS FOR
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATES THAT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LESS
DRIER AIR IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE AND THE LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS
STEEP AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...THERE IS CERTAINLY
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...MOISTURE SUPPLY AND COOLER MID LEVELS
CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WHICH ARE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014/
AVIATION...
EASTERLY FLOW A LITTLE BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS
REMAINING WEST OF THE PBI/FLL/MIA CORRIDOR AND AFFECT INTERIOR AND
GULF COAST. MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE NORTHWEST, BUT
WILL BECOME MORE ERRATIC LATE IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES PROPAGATING SOUTH AND EAST FROM INITIAL STORMS. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL BKN/OVC CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. /MOLLEDA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014/
.SOME DRIER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THIS
WEEK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...
SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BE EASTERLY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE EAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL FOCUS THE BEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. WILL CONTINUE THE ISOLATED TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS OVER THE METRO AREAS AND THE SCATTERED POPS OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS.
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO REMAIN COOL
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -9C TO -11C
RANGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREATS BEING HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE HIGH OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. DRIER AIR OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THE PWAT VALUES OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TO FALL DOWN TO 1.1 TO 1.2 INCHES BY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS BELOW THE 2 STANDARD DEVIATION OF
1.8 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO THE POPS FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED RANGE
WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
AREAS.
LONG TERM...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST BY THE LONG RANGE MODELS TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS BY END OF THE WEEK ALLOWING
FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE BACK EAST INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR LATE THIS WEEK ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE TO RETURNING
TO THE AREA. SO THE POPS FOR LATE THIS WEEK WILL BE IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS.
MARINE... THE WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS TODAY INTO MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WITH THE WIND
DIRECTION BACKING FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY TO A NORTHEAST
DIRECTION BY MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET
OR LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SO GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 89 75 88 / 20 20 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 88 78 88 / 20 20 10 10
MIAMI 77 89 77 89 / 20 20 10 20
NAPLES 73 91 73 91 / 20 20 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
558 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH
MONDAY. STRONG HEATING MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LOW BECAUSE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND JUST SHALLOW
MOISTURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAY WEAK TROUGHING AND SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE FEATURE APPEARS WEAK.
THE MODELS SHOW THE H5 RIDGE BUILDING SUPPORTING MID-LEVEL
CAPPING. MOISTURE APPEARS SHALLOW. ALL OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS HAVE
POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE SPC WRF DISPLAYS JUST ISOLATED
COVERAGE NEAR MAXIMUM HEATING. THE HRRR ALSO HAS JUST ISOLATED
COVERAGE MAINLY IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY GREATER
AND THERE SHOULD BE STRONGER CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA-
BREEZE FRONT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH HIGHS AROUND
90. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THERE MAY BE WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGHING AS SHOWN BY THE NAM MONDAY.
THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT MAY ALSO MOVE WELL INLAND. THIS FEATURES MAY
HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT LITTLE COVERAGE BECAUSE OF
CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND JUST SHALLOW MOISTURE. ALL OF
THE NAM AND GFS MOS HAVE POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING TO DOMINATE DURING
THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE APPEARS A LITTLE
WEAKER LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE MODELS DISPLAY SOME LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS
SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN POPS ARE 20 TO 30
PERCENT...WITH THE GREATER CHANCE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH EARLY
MORNING FOG AT AGS/OGB.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT MVFR FOG AT OGB AND
MVFR/IFR AT AGS TO LINGER UNTIL AROUND 12Z-13Z THIS MORNING. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1051 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1040 AM CDT
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THAT INCLUDE LOWERING
POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. STILL ANTICIPATE SCATTERED
STORMS...BUT AS NOTED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION THE CONCERNS LIMITING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ARE SHOWING UP IN OBSERVATIONAL FIELDS. THIS
ALSO SOMEWHAT TEMPERS THE CHANCES OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
A POTENT SHORT WAVE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO CENTRAL IA
CONTINUES TO WRAP NORTHEAST AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ND.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT WAS TRIGGERED BY THIS FADED BUT LEFT
ITS IMPRINT WITH MUCH DEBRIS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. THERE
IS EVEN 4000-6000FT CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THETA-E ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. AN ELEVATED OUTFLOW IS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
FROM NORTH CENTRAL IL SOUTHWARD TO THE ST LOUIS AREA. SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS TOWARD ST LOUIS AND DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL IL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME INTO THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG PLAYER.
THE DEBRIS CLOUD HAS BEGUN TO FADE ACROSS THE DVN CWA WITH
GRADUAL DESTABILIZING OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST FROM CENTRAL IA. AN ADAPTED 12Z DVN SOUNDING WOULD
INDICATE AROUND 83-84 DEGREES NEEDED FOR INITIATION OF CONVECTION
GIVEN THE MID 60S DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THAT AREA. BEING UNDER
THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AND STILL REALIZING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SEEN BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THAT AREA BUILDING SOUTHWARD WHILE OVERALL
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THE BETTER SHORT WAVE WILL
BE REMAINING MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A SECOND
MORE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVE FURTHER SOUTH. THAT GAP IN MORE
SUPPORTIVE MID-LEVEL FORCING COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER
LIMITING IMMEDIATE DESTABILIZATION OVER THE CWA HAS LED TO AN
EXPECTED LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS. WITH LESS STORMS/LESS COLD
POOLS THIS AFTERNOON COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TRUNCATED INTO
THE EVE.
WITH REGARD TO WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE CLEARING AREA
OF EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL...DUBUQUE IA OBSERVE A 40 MPH GUST.
PROFILER WINDS AND RAP SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST SUCH GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IF WE DO SCATTER...WHICH NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT WE WILL.
NORTH CENTRAL IL WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR SOME OF THOSE
GUSTS AS PRESSURE FALLS WILL ALSO ENCOMPASS THERE THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON. WITH ALREADY A 35 MPH GUST AT ROCKFORD...WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.
MTF/KJB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
306 AM CDT
FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING INCLUDE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...AND AN ACTIVE SUMMERTIME PATTERN
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND PROGGED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THEN
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS
THE PLAINS MOVING INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING THOUGH
HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING WITH DECREASING LIGHTNING COUNT
AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. EXTRAPOLATION
OF THE LINE HAS IT INTO OUR AREA MID MORNING SO EXPECT MUCH OF THE
MORNING TO REMAIN DRY.
AS THE UPPER WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...A BETTER
ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MINNESOTA THEN
LIFT NORTH INTO MANITOBA/QUEBEC THIS EVENING AND PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITHIN THIS FRONTAL TROUGH...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 80S WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT. THE CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT NARROW THOUGH WITH UPPER 40 TO LOW 50
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY FARTHER EAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN DRY WEATHER LOCALLY UNTIL THE FRONT NEARS. PARED BACK POPS
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING AS IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT ANY REMNANT
ACTIVITY FROM THE MCS WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST INTO THE CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE
UPPER JET. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS/CONCERNS TODAY FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT INCLUDE CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WHICH MAY TEMPER
OUR ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH APPEARS MARGINAL PER SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS. AND AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...NORTHWARD LIFTING LOW WILL STRETCH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INTO STRONG RIDGING ANCHORED IN THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...AN IDEA
SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND THE 00Z SPC 4KM WRF WHICH SHOWS FAIRLY
LIMITED ACTIVITY. SEVERE WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MIGHT BE POSSIBLE NEAR
INITIATION IF WINDS CAN REMAIN BACKED...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER MORE TO THE SSW WITH THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT. OVERALL...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
NOT ZERO BUT APPEARS UNIMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW COVERAGE.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FRONT STARTS TO
LAY OUT BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR
VECTORS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
AND POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS LINE
SETS UP...WHICH APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO LAY OUT AND STALL ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA WHILE MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WESTWARD SLIGHTLY WITH THERMAL RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS STARTING
TO WRAP BACK EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. H85 TEMPS WARM
TO AROUND 18C MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH HOWEVER...A LAKE BREEZE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DEVELOP MONDAY COOLING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE BACK
INTO THE 70S PERHAPS 60S RIGHT NEAR THE LAKE FRONT. H85 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM TUESDAY WITH SOME MODELS NOW SUGGESTING TEMPS TO
AROUND 23C WHICH WOULD EASILY SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE 90S PERHAPS MID
90S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX
NORTH OF US BY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE BETTER CONSENSUS IN PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...TAPERED POPS SOME ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND NUDGED
TEMPS UP TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GEMNH AND ECMWF WHICH
GAVE LOW TO MID 90S. CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHEST TEMPS REMAINS BEST IN
THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BE MOST REMOVED FROM ANY PRECIP/DEBRIS.
WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR CUT WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR OUTFLOW
AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND MAKING THE TEMP FORECAST A BIT MORE
TRICKY. WILL STICK TO THE CONSENSUS BLEND FOR NOW...BUT AGAIN
WEDNESDAY CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPS GETTING WELL INTO THE 90S IF THINGS
PLAY OUT RIGHT. WHEREVER THE THUNDERSTORMS END UP DEVELOPING THIS
PERIOD...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODEL SOLUTIONS QUICKLY DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH EITHER WAY IT APPEARS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DID NOT
STRAY FROM A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* SOUTH WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND 25 TO POSSIBLY 30 KT GUSTS EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON.
* TIMING AND COVERAGE OF TSRA THIS MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVE.
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS OR VSBY TONIGHT.
MTF/MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LOW PRESSURE IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS MINNESOTA TODAY. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN WEAKENING ACROSS IOWA AND
MISSOURI...WITH THE FOCUS ACROSS OKLAHOMA. OUTFLOW FROM THE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA
GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS. AT ITS CURRENT
SPEED THIS BOUNDARY WILL REACH RFD 14/15Z AND THE CHICAGO AREA A
FEW HOURS AFTER THAT. THE BOUNDARY MAY SLOW SOME AS IT WORKS
EASTWARD. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT IS NOT TERRIBLY FAVORABLE FOR NEW
DEVELOPMENT OR EVEN MAINTENANCE OF OLD DEVELOPMENT DUE IN PART TO
ABUNDANT CLOUD SHIELD NOW OVERHEAD SO AM THINKING THAT THERE WILL
BE ONLY MINIMAL COVERAGE OF SOME SHOWERS/ISOLD TSRA DURING THE
MID/LATE MORNING...IF EVEN THAT MUCH. SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT
RANGE...LIKELY INCREASING TO THE 25-30 KT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD COVER MAY END UP TEMPERING GUSTS.
A COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY AND SHOULD BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...BUT THE FRONT
WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST. RFD REMAINS THE WILDCARD AS
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP JUST TO ITS EAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH TEMPO TS MENTION BECAUSE THERE IS NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT
TO SAY RFD WILL BE WEST OF THE DEVELOPING STORMS. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE BEST WINDOW
FOR THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND SLIGHTLY LATER AT GYY. THERE MAY BE GAPS IN COVERAGE
SO HAVE RETAINED TEMPO TSRA FOR NOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER
AFTER THE MAIN STORMS CLEAR TO THE EAST AND MVFR CIGS WILL TRY TO
DEVELOP. DO NOT HAVE A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW CEILINGS
WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BUT MVFR MAY CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST SEVERAL HOURS AND POSSIBLY THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT SO SITES THAT SEE RAINFALL MAY SEE
AT LEAST MVFR VSBY REDUCTION LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT MONDAY MORNING FAVORING A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH IN WINDS BEING 170 THROUGH 19Z-20Z...MEDIUM IN GUST
MAGNITUDE.
* MEDIUM OF TSRA OCCURRING. MEDIUM-HIGH IN TIMING WINDOW IF IT
DOES OCCUR.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
MTF/MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF PERIODIC TSRA.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
312 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM JAMES BAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA. THIS LOW WILL
THEN REACH EASTERN MANITOBA TONIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING AND TURN TO THE SOUTH
WHILE DOING SO. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 25-30 KT
SPEEDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE
INDIANA WATERS MAY SEE WINDS FALL BELOW CRITERIA A LITTLE EARLIER
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WILL CROSS THE
LAKE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BRINGING A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AS
WELL AS A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE ACROSS AT
LEAST NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND
MAY SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AGAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
TUESDAY AS A PORTION OF THE LOW TO THE WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO. A FRONT STRETCHING FROM THIS WEAKER LOW TO A BETTER
ORGANIZED LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY STALL ACROSS THE LAKE
INTO WEDNESDAY LEADING TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. NOT TOO
CONFIDENT IN HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES FROM MID WEEK ONWARD BUT THIS
BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN IN THE REGION LEADING TO FLUCTUATIONS IN WINDS.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1135 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES
THROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL
APPROACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11:30 AM UPDATE...A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
AREAS ALONG A DEFORMATION FIELD SO EXTENDED ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATE TODAY AND SOME
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY THIS EVENING AS RIDGING PUSHES IN.
ORGNL DISC: RADAR REF IMAGERY AND HRRR MODEL HRLY SIM FCST RADAR
REF IMAGERY CONT TO SHOW THE TREND OF STEADY RNFL CONTNG TO SLIDE
AWAY ENE FROM THE FA INTO NE BRUNSWICK PROV THRU THE MORN HRS.
WHAT THIS LEAVES IS SCT SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LEFT OVR LOW TO
MID LVL INSTABILITY DUE TO THE CLOSE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVG SE INTO THE GULF OF ME THIS MORN. THESE SHWRS...AND
EVENTUALLY THE BKN-OVC SC DECK WILL BEGIN TO DISSOLVE WNW TO ESE
ACROSS THE FA BY THIS AFTN...ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE AFTN. DUE TO THE ONSET DIRECTION OF
GREATER SUNSHINE... HIGHEST TEMPS THIS AFT WILL BE OVR THE FAR NW
AND WRN DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY FROM
THE NNW...SPCLY DURG THE AFTN WHEN MIXING WILL BE GREATEST...WITH
MAX GUST POTENTIAL OF 30 MPH BASED ON AT LEAST 5 KFT OF MIXING
FROM ALF.
SKIES WILL FINISH CLRG OVR THE FA THIS EVE...BUT A NNW SFC PRES
GRADIENT WILL KEEP A BREEZE GOING OVRNGT...SPCLY OVR ERN PTNS OF
THE FA. FOR THIS REASON...ONLY WRN VLYS WILL HAVE A CHC TO
EXPERIENCE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER ON MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOME LATE DAY CIRRUS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20
MPH. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY COULD MAKE FIRE
WEATHER A CONSIDERATION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S NORTH AND
MID TO UPPER 70S FOR DOWN EAST WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW ENSURING
WARM TEMPERATURES RIGHT TO COAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE
NIGHT AND CAP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AROUND BANGOR. THESE
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT TUESDAY MORNING AND ALLOW SUNSHINE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
TOWARDS THE COAST WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AS GUIDANCE IS HAVING
TROUBLE PHASING MOVEMENT OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OUT OF QUEBEC.
THIS TROUGH WILL BE KEY IN CREATING SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION. WILL
BROADEN THE WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL WEATHER FOLLOWING THE FRONT FOR
AN EXTENDED STRETCH. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MERITS CLOSE SCRUTINY FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS. THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ANY SURFACE HEATING WILL BE CRITICAL
ELEMENTS WHERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY MVFR CLGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORN WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY AFTN...WITH KFVE THAT LAST SITE TO EXPERIENCE
THIS TRANSITION BY MID AFTN. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN REMAIN VFR THRU
TNGT.
SHORT TERM: VFR UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A THREAT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL SITES. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST BLO SCA THRESHOLDS TDY
AND TNGT WITH NNW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. WE USED A BLEND
OF RAW MODEL AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR WINDS AND WW3 WV HTS...ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD FOR THE INNER HARBOR/BAY MZ052 DUE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE
COMPONENT AND SHORT FETCH WIND DIRECTION.
SHORT TERM: POSSIBLE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CALM CONDITIONS WITH THE THREAT OF FOG INCREASING BY
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN/MCB
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
825 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES
THROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL
APPROACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
8:30 AM UPDATE...ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO MENTION ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.
CLOUDS WILL MOVE AWAY LATE TODAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. TODAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WIND AS THE DAYS HEATING MIXING AIR DOWN FROM ALOFT.
ORGNL DISC: RADAR REF IMAGERY AND HRRR MODEL HRLY SIM FCST RADAR
REF IMAGERY CONT TO SHOW THE TREND OF STEADY RNFL CONTNG TO SLIDE
AWAY ENE FROM THE FA INTO NE BRUNSWICK PROV THRU THE MORN HRS.
WHAT THIS LEAVES IS SCT SHWRS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LEFT OVR LOW TO
MID LVL INSTABILITY DUE TO THE CLOSE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVG SE INTO THE GULF OF ME THIS MORN. THESE SHWRS...AND
EVENTUALLY THE BKN-OVC SC DECK WILL BEGIN TO DISSOLVE WNW TO ESE
ACROSS THE FA BY THIS AFTN...ALLOWING FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE BY MID TO LATE AFTN. DUE TO THE ONSET DIRECTION OF
GREATER SUNSHINE... HIGHEST TEMPS THIS AFT WILL BE OVR THE FAR NW
AND WRN DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY FROM
THE NNW...SPCLY DURG THE AFTN WHEN MIXING WILL BE GREATEST...WITH
MAX GUST POTENTIAL OF 30 MPH BASED ON AT LEAST 5 KFT OF MIXING
FROM ALF.
SKIES WILL FINISH CLRG OVR THE FA THIS EVE...BUT A NNW SFC PRES
GRADIENT WILL KEEP A BREEZE GOING OVRNGT...SPCLY OVR ERN PTNS OF
THE FA. FOR THIS REASON...ONLY WRN VLYS WILL HAVE A CHC TO
EXPERIENCE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER ON MONDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOME LATE DAY CIRRUS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20
MPH. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY COULD MAKE FIRE
WEATHER A CONSIDERATION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S NORTH AND
MID TO UPPER 70S FOR DOWN EAST WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW ENSURING
WARM TEMPERATURES RIGHT TO COAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE
NIGHT AND CAP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AROUND BANGOR. THESE
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT TUESDAY MORNING AND ALLOW SUNSHINE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
TOWARDS THE COAST WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST AS THE COLD FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS PROBLEMATIC AS GUIDANCE IS HAVING
TROUBLE PHASING MOVEMENT OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OUT OF QUEBEC.
THIS TROUGH WILL BE KEY IN CREATING SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION. WILL
BROADEN THE WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH FAIR AND COOL WEATHER FOLLOWING THE FRONT FOR
AN EXTENDED STRETCH. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MERITS CLOSE SCRUTINY FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS. THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ANY SURFACE HEATING WILL BE CRITICAL
ELEMENTS WHERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY MVFR CLGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORN WILL
TRANSITION TO VFR BY AFTN...WITH KFVE THAT LAST SITE TO EXPERIENCE
THIS TRANSITION BY MID AFTN. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN REMAIN VFR THRU
TNGT.
SHORT TERM: VFR UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A THREAT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL SITES. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST BLO SCA THRESHOLDS TDY
AND TNGT WITH NNW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. WE USED A BLEND
OF RAW MODEL AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR WINDS AND WW3 WV HTS...ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD FOR THE INNER HARBOR/BAY MZ052 DUE TO THE HIGH OFFSHORE
COMPONENT AND SHORT FETCH WIND DIRECTION.
SHORT TERM: POSSIBLE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ON THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...CALM CONDITIONS WITH THE THREAT OF FOG INCREASING BY
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN/MCB
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
740 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER FAR SRN SASKATCHEWAN. SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE LOW IS
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS THRU THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF
FEATURE...SHRA AND TSTMS ARE LINED UP FROM NRN OK TO SRN MN THEN ENE
INTO WI AND UPPER MI THOUGH THUNDER HAS YET TO REACH UPPER MI. IN
RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE PLAINS...LOW-LEVEL JET HAS
INCREASED TO 45KT TO AS HIGH AS 65KT PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. NOSE
OF LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THE SHRA/TSTMS SPREADING
ACROSS WI INTO UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.
RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A SHORTWAVE LIFTING N THRU ERN
MN. AS THIS SUBTLE FEATURE LIFTS N AND WEAKENS AND NRN END OF
LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS AS WELL...SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS SPREADING N INTO
UPPER MI WILL LIKELY WEAKEN OR AT LEAST SHIFT MORE TOWARD WRN UPPER
MI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE LINGERING AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE
FOCUSED. AS MAIN NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE SWINGS NE THIS AFTN...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND SOME TSRA TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG/AHEAD OF OCCLUDED FRONT THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS UPPER MI
THIS AFTN/EVENING. THERE APPEARS TO BE VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SFC BASED CONVECTION TODAY GIVEN STABLE SFC BASED LAYER EVIDENT ON
FCST SOUNDINGS AND LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER LIMITING
DAYTIME HEATING. ABOVE THE STABLE LAYER...MUCAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG IS INDICATED BY THE GFS WITH THE NAM A BIT HIGHER UP TO
500-750J/KG BRUSHING THE FAR S/SE FCST AREA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPEARS
TO BE OVER 30KT...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING
ANY SVR STORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...SINCE STRONG WIND FIELDS ARE PRESENT
TODAY...ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS PRODUCING MDT/HVY RAINFALL COULD VERY WELL
TRANSPORT STRONGER WINDS TO THE SFC. EVEN WITHOUT PCPN...LIMITED
MIXING ON FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAX WIND GUSTS COULD EASILY TOP OUT
AROUND 40MPH TODAY. THE GUSTY WINDS IN THIS MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE AIDED BY RIBBON OF HEALTHY SFC PRES FALLS OF 5-7MB/3HR
LIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. IF MIXING IS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN EXPECTED...WIND ADVY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE REACHED TODAY.
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTN.
WITH PASSAGE OF OCCLUDED FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF IMPRESSIVE DRYING AS
UPPER JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT A QUICK END TO SHRA/TSRA
FROM SW TO NE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THANKS TO ANOTHER LOW ORGANIZING ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MN WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
CENTRAL MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER AT 12Z MONDAY. EXPECT THE LOW TO
TRACK EAST ACROSS ONTARIO...CROSSING JAMES BAY MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
BRIEFLY SLIDE IN DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH NO PRECIP ANTICIPATED
ACROSS UPPER MI. A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL BUILD
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE
DRY WEATHER WILL NOT CONTINUE. LOW PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL SHIFT INTO MN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FCST MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL WE MOVE INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW AFTER
THAT GETS A BIT MORE JUMBLED. THE 15/00Z GFS IS MUCH DEEPER WITH THE
SYSTEM...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEEKER AND A BIT MOR PROGRESSIVE.
THE CANADIAN TENDS TO FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH
THURSDAY.
AS FOR SPECIFICS...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND GOOD MIXING ABOVE 800MB...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 80S OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI
/OR APPROX 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL/. CONTINUED TO GO TOWARD THE HIGH END
OF FCST GUIDANCE TEMP WISE. WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE A 90F
VALUE. RH VALUES COULD FALL INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE /DID GO ON
THE LOW SIDE FOR DEW POINTS AND RH/...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE
20-25MPH RANGE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE RAIN TODAY SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO SLIDE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE SW IN OUR WAA PATTERN. EXACT
TIMING/LOCATION IS DIFFICULT. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS OR HIGHER NEAR
THE WI BORDER...WHICH LOOKS TO FOLLOW THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
WELL. OTHERWISE EXPECT SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 738 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE MORNING HRS
AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY DESPITE SCT SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE -SHRA AFFECTING KIWD/KCMX MAY DIMINISH/EXIT
FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING...APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY SOME TSRA THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLD/SCT IN COVERAGE...SO
CONFIDENCE IN TSTMS AFFECTING ANY OF THE TERMINALS IS LOW. THUS...
TSRA WERE NOT INCLUDED IN FCST. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE SHRA. CLOUDS WILL THEN CLEAR OUT FROM W TO E
TONIGHT.
OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS WIND. ALTHOUGH MIXING DEPTHS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE VERY HIGH...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS/PRES FALLS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT GUSTS TO 30-35KT...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD/KSAW WHICH ARE
MORE FAVORED THAN KCMX FOR STRONGER WINDS UNDER THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
LOW PRES WILL LIFT THRU MN INTO NRN ONTARIO TODAY. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO E TO SE WINDS OF 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL RESULT IN
A STABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMP ENVIROMENT...HEALTHY PRES FALLS AND STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OCNL GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTN...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGH OBS PLATFORMS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE
COULD BE 2-3HRS OF FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS WHEN RIBBON OF MAX PRES
FALLS LIFTS ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTN. AS OCCLUDED FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE LAKE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S OR SW TONIGHT AND
DIMINISH. WITH RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER THE LAKE...EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THE FOG WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT ARE EXPECTED MON/MON NIGHT.
THEN...LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BECOME SITUATED BTWN A HUDSON BAY HIGH AND
A LOW PRES TROF SLOWLY ADVANCING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN EASTERLY WINDS LATER TUE THRU THU. WHILE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE UNDER 20KT...THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER WINDS
OVER THE WRN PART OF THE LAKE...PARTICULARY TOWARD THE MN N SHORE
DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. OTHERWISE...WINDS OVERALL
COULD BE STRONGER DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AND LOW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
954 AM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING. LINGERING
SHOWERS IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES WILL END BY MIDDAY. ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR MOUNTAINS LATE TODAY. OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD
BE A BEAUTIFUL FATHERS DAY AT MOST LOCATIONS. BT
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS OUT OF NORTHEAST MONTANA
EARLY THIS MORNING. CYCLONIC NW FLOW AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR CENTRAL AND EAST PARTS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. AREA OF PV WILL FINALLY EXIT OUR EAST BY MIDDAY...SO
HAVE EXPANDED ISOLATED MORNING NUISANCE SHOWERS TO INCLUDE ROSEBUD
COUNTY EAST. ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF BY 18-19Z PER LATEST RAP AS
MID LEVELS BEGIN TO WARM AND WE ADVECT DRIER AIR FROM THE NW.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO APPROACHING PACIFIC ENERGY FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER OUR WESTERN MTNS AND FOOTHILLS
BEGINNING AROUND 20Z...WITH GREATEST FORCING TO ARRIVE AFTER 00Z.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS
ESPECIALLY TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST PARTS THIS EVENING...WITH
SOME ACTIVITY LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS WAVE LIFTS TO NORTHEAST MT.
THIS CONVECTION WILL NOT BE SEVERE...BUT WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ON
THE ORDER OF 5KFT COULD RESULT IN SOME SMALL HAIL...AND FAIRLY DRY
LOW LEVELS COULD YIELD 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STRONGER
CELLS AT SUCH PLACES AS LIVINGSTON AND HARLOWTON.
A DEEP-FOR-MID-JUNE UPPER LOW WILL DROP OVER WA/OR MONDAY...
RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT SW FLOW OVER OUR WEST. THUS
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT PER THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND MID
LEVEL BAROCLINICITY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN
OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND SOME OF THESE COULD BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE CLOSER TO THE DAKOTAS BORDER AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS
INTO EASTERN MT AS THE UPPER LOW AMPLIFIES...WITH NOCTURNAL
ASCENT AIDED BY A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. COULD SEE SOME HAIL
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS AT BAKER RISE TO NEAR 0.90 INCHES.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN SATURDAY
BUT STILL A LITTLE BELOW MID JUNE NORMALS. WITH GOOD MIXING AND
W-NW WINDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WE SHOULD SEE LOW TO MID 70S FOR
HIGHS. COOLING WILL BEGIN OUT WEST ON MONDAY...BUT EASTERN AREAS
WILL SEE UPPER 70S TOMORROW.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW. MAIN ISSUE
BETWEEN THE MODELS IS TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT
MODEL THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS AND WILL CONTINUE TRENDING THE
FORECAST TOWARD ITS SOLUTION.
UPPER TROUGH WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO
SC/SE MT ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM AS JET
DIVERGENCE AND STRONG QG FORCING WILL MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES
TUESDAY MORNING. THE WAVE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WILL
IMPACT THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE ONE TO TWO INCHES
OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH. COLD
POCKET OF AIR MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING SNOW TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECREASING ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH EXITS
INTO THE DAKOTA`S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS AN UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP BEHIND
THE WAVE. DRY WEATHER RETURNING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 50S AND 60S. UPPER RIDGE LATE IN THE
WEEK WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WITH MID 80S EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. RICHMOND
&&
.AVIATION...
LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS FROM KMLS E WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS
MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM W TO
E INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY W OF ROSEBUD COUNTY. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AND END MON MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
THROUGH MON MORNING. ARTHUR
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 051/073 051/064 046/064 049/075 052/082 054/086
1/U 23/T 56/T 65/T 32/T 21/U 11/U
LVM 070 043/067 041/057 038/058 044/074 046/079 048/081
3/T 36/T 66/T 65/T 42/T 21/U 22/T
HDN 074 049/076 052/067 048/067 049/075 052/085 054/089
1/U 23/T 56/T 65/T 33/T 21/B 11/U
MLS 071 051/078 055/068 052/068 050/071 053/082 056/086
1/B 02/T 57/T 76/T 33/T 22/T 11/U
4BQ 073 050/079 053/069 051/068 050/071 051/082 053/085
0/B 02/T 45/T 76/T 43/T 22/T 11/U
BHK 068 049/076 054/071 051/067 049/068 049/077 051/081
2/W 02/T 56/T 76/T 43/T 32/T 11/U
SHR 070 046/075 048/063 045/064 045/072 047/081 049/084
1/B 02/T 36/T 64/T 43/T 31/B 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
708 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CATEGORICAL POPS NEED TO BE
EXTENDED WEST INTO THE VALLEY (TRACK OF THE 700MB LOW IS FURTHER
WEST THAN MOST MODELS INDICATE). 12Z RADAR IMAGERY ARGUES FOR THE
RAP GUIDANCE. WILL MAKE THE NECESSARY CHANGES IN THE GRIDS. THIS
ALSO EXTENDS THE 1+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE VALLEY...WITH 0.25-0.75 INCHES LIKELY WITHIN THE
VALLEY...DECREASING TO TRACE AMOUNTS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
VALLEY.
THERE IS NO NEED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD BECAUSE OF
THIS FORECAST SHIFT. LOOKING AT THE RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS PAST
WEEK...THE 2+ INCH REPORTS ARE CONFINED TO AREAS WITHIN THE FLOOD
WATCH...AND AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE WATCH SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HANDLE 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
AREAS WITHIN THE FLOOD WATCH ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 1-2
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EASTERN FA AND
PRECIP CHANCES FOR TODAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
TODAY. UPPER WAVE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL PROPAGATE INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA BY 18Z. 700MB LOW WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THIS
TIME...LOCATED JUST EAST OF BAUDETTE BY 18Z-20Z. THIS 700MB LOW
LOCATION IS BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS AND COULD FLUCTUATE...BUT THE
03Z SREF HAS COME IN TRENDING FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS (IT HAD BEEN MUCH FURTHER
EAST)...WHICH HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TODAY.
STRONG DEFORMATION...COMBINED WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
RAINFALL OF 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE VALLEY.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING...LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AS THESE
AMOUNTS COULD AGAIN CAUSE MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST
WILL COMBINE WITH A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE HEAVIER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. INSTABILITY IS WEAK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LOW.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING (MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA). MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON ACTUAL TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES EJECTING FROM MEAN
WEST COAST TROUGH. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
REGION WHERE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS THE GREATEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR STRONG STORMS...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE AN
ISOLD SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 500MB EVOLUTION
THE MOST UNCERTAIN WRT CLOSED 500MB LOW LIFTING INTO TO
SASKATCHEWAN CANADA...PER THE 00Z EC OR OVER SOUTH DAKOTA PER 00Z
GFS BY 18Z THURSDAY. WILL KEEP INHERITED LIKELY POPS THURSDAY FOR
FROPA WITH AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. POTENTIAL DOES EXIST IF 500MB
CLOSED SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FOR SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF
PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IF THE GFS SOLN VERIFIES.
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD WITH LOW TO HIGH 70S EXPECTED FOR
MAX TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE VALLEY. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...THEN BECOMING VFR AS THE SHOWERS END BY LATER THIS
MORNING OR AFTERNOON. THIS AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES...AND INCLUDED VCTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MNZ006-009-016-017-023-024-
028-031-032.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1046 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
MCS ACROSS FAR ERN OK/NW AR CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT IS STILL PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LEFT A
WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
NEAR FSM BACK INTO NE OK...AND WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL PLAY A ROLE IN POTENTIAL
REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NE OK IS QUITE WORKED
OVER/RAIN-COOLED AT THE MOMENT...SO REDEVELOPMENT
REMAINS IN QUESTION...AND HRRR HOLDS OFF STORMS
UNTIL AROUND 00Z FOR NE OK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 87 72 89 75 / 30 20 10 10
FSM 88 72 92 73 / 60 10 10 10
MLC 87 73 88 75 / 20 10 10 10
BVO 86 69 89 74 / 30 40 10 10
FYV 83 68 86 72 / 70 20 10 10
BYV 84 68 87 71 / 80 20 10 10
MKO 85 72 89 73 / 50 20 10 10
MIO 84 69 88 74 / 30 40 10 10
F10 87 72 88 74 / 20 20 10 10
HHW 87 72 89 72 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
644 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES KBVO/KTUL/
KRVS/KXNA/KFYV BETWEEN 12Z ISSUANCE TIME AND 16Z THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH CU CLOUD...HOWEVER RISK
SCATTERED THUNDER VICINITY NORTHERN SITES KBVO/KTUL/KRVS/KXNA
KFYV LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014/
DISCUSSION...
LINEAR MCS CONTINUES EAST ACROSS KS...WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG
ITS GUST FRONT ON ITS SWRN FLANK DOWN INTO NRN OK. THIS PORTION OF
THE LINE IS MORE PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AND THUS THE
OUTFLOW IS SURGING OUT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE...LIMITING ITS
INTENSITY. NEVERTHELESS...NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS ARE FEEDING INTO THE
SYSTEM AND BEING LIFTED BY THE GUST FRONT...SO IT IS AT LEAST
KEEPING THE STORMS GOING. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR KEEP
THE TAIL END OF THE MCS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE KS BORDER...ALTHOUGH
THE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT HAS SHOWN SO FAR.
THERE IS STILL SOME AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE RISK...ESPECIALLY NW
OF TULSA...HOWEVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
SUB-SEVERE. WHAT IS LEFT OF THIS MCS WILL TRAVEL EAST TOWARD THE
OZARKS THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. A BOUNDARY WILL BE LEFT
FROM THIS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WHICH WILL PROBABLY RETREAT NORTH
SOME DURING THE DAY AS STRONG SOUTH WINDS PUSH IT IN THAT
DIRECTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON STORM WILL LIKELY BE
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER AS WELL. SOME POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT
STORMS EXISTS NORTH OF WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP...WHICH MAY END
UP BEING NORTH AND EAST OF THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS.
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND WARMING MID LVL TEMPS WILL BRING
DRY...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IS STILL FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTH OVER THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHILE A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING MORE TSTORM CHANCES
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
RIDGING IS FORECAST BY THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF BY NEXT WEEKEND
SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST AT THE TAIL END.
LACY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 88 72 89 75 / 70 20 10 10
FSM 90 72 92 73 / 30 10 10 10
MLC 88 73 88 75 / 20 10 10 10
BVO 87 69 89 74 / 90 40 10 10
FYV 85 68 86 72 / 40 20 10 10
BYV 85 68 87 71 / 60 20 10 10
MKO 88 72 89 73 / 30 20 10 10
MIO 85 69 88 74 / 100 40 10 10
F10 87 72 88 74 / 30 20 10 10
HHW 88 72 89 72 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
134 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THEN STALL TO THE SOUTH TO CLOSE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER BUILDING RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CLOUD COVER
AT A MINIMUM THIS AFTERNOON.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY REMAIN TOO STRONG FOR SEA BREEZE FORMATION. EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE WITHIN A 1/4 MILE OF THE NYC/NASSAU ATLANTIC COAST VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON PER LATEST RUC AND HRRR - ONCE AGAIN THIS IS
VERY MUCH IN DOUBT.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE FORECAST...SO
HAVE GENERALLY TWEAKED HIGHS UPWARD A DEGREE OR TWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH
MODELS TRENDING TO HIGHER HEIGHTS EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. A
DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MON NIGHT INTO TUE COMBINED WITH A
RETURN FLOW AND THERMAL TROUGH MAY PROVIDE THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. SUBSIDENCE AND
LACK OF DEEP SHEAR WILL KEEP A LID ON ANY STRONG CONVECTION AND
MAY ALL TOGETHER KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.
OTHERWISE...WARM...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS MODERATING
BY TUE INTO THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST AND 85 TO 90 NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC. LOWS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 60S WITH DEW POINTS ALSO
RETURNING TO SIMILAR LEVELS. THUS...A RETURN TO MUGGY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUE. EXPECT HIGHS TUE TO BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
W/NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER
HIGH REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER
LOW DIGGING FROM NRN QUEBEC INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
WED...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON WED AND PASSING
THROUGH BY WED EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS HAS BACKED OFF
IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS SHORT WAVE AS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...
MAINTAINING HIGHER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NE...DELAYING THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL LATE THU. OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS OF
LATE HAS BEEN SLOWER AND WARMER WITH THE HEIGHTS EAST OF THE MS
RIVER VALLEY.
KEPT TUE NIGHT MAINLY DRY...BUT SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/TSTMS ON
WED...WITH CHANCE POP IN THE MORNING AS A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH
BECOMES ESTABLISHED EARLY ON...AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON
PER DIURNAL CLIMATOLOGICAL TREND.
THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH BY WED EVENING AND STALL TO THE
SOUTH/WEST THEREAFTER...POSSIBLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONTINUED
MENTION OF DIURNAL CHANCE POP FOR THU INTO SAT. INSTABILITY LOOKS
LIMITED PER MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SO DID NOT MENTION THUNDER.
ABOVE AVG TEMPS ON WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 90 IN URBAN NE NJ AND NYC...SHOULD FALL BACK CLOSER TO
AVG FROM THU THROUGH SAT. HEAT INDEX VALUES ON WED LOOK TO REMAIN
CLOSE TO ACTUAL TEMPS AND NOT RISE ABOVE 95.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
NW FLOW 8-12 KTS...GENERALLY BETWEEN 310-340 (TRUE). KEWR/KJFK MAY
VARY BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN 290 AND 310 THRU THE AFTN. OCNL GUSTS
PSBL AS WELL THRU 20Z...BUT NOT INCLUDING WITH SUCH A SPORADIC
NATURE. LOW CONFIDENCE OF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IMPACTING ANY
TERMINAL SITES.
FEW-SCT MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS THRU TODAY.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VRB TONIGHT. CLEARING OF SKIES AS WELL.
NOT INCLUDING PCPN AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS A LOW END CHC LIGHT
RAIN MAKES IT TO KSWF RIGHT AROUND 00Z TUE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.MON...VFR.
.MON NIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
.TUES...VFR.
.WED-FRI...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISH
INTO THIS EVENING. SUB SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY
WEAK. OCEAN SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN/DW
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...JC/MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1242 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THEN STALL TO THE SOUTH TO CLOSE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
SUBSIDENCE UNDER BUILDING RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CLOUD COVER
AT A MINIMUM THIS AFTERNOON.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY REMAIN TOO STRONG FOR SEA BREEEZE FORMATION. EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE WITHIN A 1/4 MILE OF THE NYC/NASSAU ATLANTIC COAST VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON PER LATEST RUC AND HRRR - ONCE AGAIN THIS IS
VERY MUCH IN DOUBT.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE FORECAST...SO
HAVE GENERALLY TWEAKED HIGHS UPWARD A DEGREE OR TWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH
MODELS TRENDING TO HIGHER HEIGHTS EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. A
DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT MON NIGHT INTO TUE COMBINED WITH A
RETURN FLOW AND THERMAL TROUGH MAY PROVIDE THE NECESSARY
INGREDIENTS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. SUBSIDENCE AND
LACK OF DEEP SHEAR WILL KEEP A LID ON ANY STRONG CONVECTION AND
MAY ALL TOGETHER KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.
OTHERWISE...WARM...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS MODERATING
BY TUE INTO THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST AND 85 TO 90 NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC. LOWS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 60S WITH DEW POINTS ALSO
RETURNING TO SIMILAR LEVELS. THUS...A RETURN TO MUGGY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUE. EXPECT HIGHS TUE TO BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
W/NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER
HIGH REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...AND A STRENGTHENING UPPER
LOW DIGGING FROM NRN QUEBEC INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
WED...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON WED AND PASSING
THROUGH BY WED EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS HAS BACKED OFF
IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS SHORT WAVE AS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...
MAINTAINING HIGHER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NE...DELAYING THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL LATE THU. OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS OF
LATE HAS BEEN SLOWER AND WARMER WITH THE HEIGHTS EAST OF THE MS
RIVER VALLEY.
KEPT TUE NIGHT MAINLY DRY...BUT SHOULD SEE SHOWERS/TSTMS ON
WED...WITH CHANCE POP IN THE MORNING AS A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH
BECOMES ESTABLISHED EARLY ON...AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON
PER DIURNAL CLIMATOLOGICAL TREND.
THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH BY WED EVENING AND STALL TO THE
SOUTH/WEST THEREAFTER...POSSIBLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT CONTINUED
MENTION OF DIURNAL CHANCE POP FOR THU INTO SAT. INSTABILITY LOOKS
LIMITED PER MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SO DID NOT MENTION THUNDER.
ABOVE AVG TEMPS ON WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND POSSIBLY
APPROACHING 90 IN URBAN NE NJ AND NYC...SHOULD FALL BACK CLOSER TO
AVG FROM THU THROUGH SAT. HEAT INDEX VALUES ON WED LOOK TO REMAIN
CLOSE TO ACTUAL TEMPS AND NOT RISE ABOVE 95.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
NW FLOW 10-12 KTS...WITH OCNL GUSTS 18-21 KTS THRU 18Z. LOW
CONFIDENCE FULL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT KJFK/KBDR/KGON/KISP
BACKING WINDS TO A SOUTH FLOW. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WINDS WILL BACK
TO A WNW FLOW 290-300 (TRUE) THIS AFTN. ELSEWHERE...NW FLOW 8-10
KTS FOR THE AFTN THRU 00Z.
FEW-SCT MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS THRU TODAY.
.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.MON...VFR.
.TUE-THU...ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS - MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISH
INTO THIS EVENING. SUB SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY
WEAK. OCEAN SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN/DW
AVIATION...SEARS
MARINE...MALOIT/JC
HYDROLOGY...DW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
152 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING DOWN THE CANADIAN COAST. THIS
LOW IS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO WASHINGTON LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY. THIS
WILL PRODUCE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS COULD BE NEAR LAKE WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN
IDAHO PRODUCING ANOTHER COLD...RAW AND SHOWERY DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. ON WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING AND DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.
VALLE
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE CLOSED LOW OVER
THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING AND
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND THE AXIS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AND TRANSITION
SE ID INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW. PASSING SHORTWAVES OVER THE WEEKEND MAY
BRING BACK THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS.
EP
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. HRRR SUPPORTS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SPREADING INTO EAST IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. NAM IS
LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP TODAY...BUT IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
PRECIP TOMORROW MORNING AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS INTO THE PAC NW AND CLOSES OFF A LOW OVER WASHINGTON. MOS
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS AS EARLY AS NOON
TOMORROW...BUT KEEPING SITES VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD. HINSBERGER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE BUILDING UP AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
THAT WILL DROP INTO THE PAC NW TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY THROUGH AROUND MID-WEEK.
WE SHOULD ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MONDAY. THE
UPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED
AFTER WEDNESDAY. HINSBERGER
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
449 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
239 PM CDT
OVERALL OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PREVIOUS THOUGHTS
OF AN ISOLATED AT BEST SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
18Z ILX RAOB AS WELL AS RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOW A
PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION ROUGHLY BETWEEN 900 MB AND A BIT
ABOVE 800 MB. FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND CONVERGENCE ON THE WANE
AS PREVIOUSLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS VEER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS
IT APPROACHES AND PASSES THE MS RIVER. THUS DESPITE EXPECTATION OF
SOME COOLING OF WARM LAYER ALOFT AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO RISE
INTO THE 60S...THE PIECES REALLY ARE NOT THERE FOR ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE...WITH MUCH SHALLOWER AND RAGGED CU FROM FAR EASTERN IA
AND ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL AS COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH CLOSER
TO THE HEART OF SHORT WAVE.
MODIFYING ILX SOUNDING TO CURRENT CONDITIONS STILL ONLY YIELDS A BIT
OVER 1000 J/KG OF TALL SKINNY CAPE ABOVE CAP. THUS EVEN AS CAP
ERODES SOME THIS AFTERNOON...NOT EXPECTING ROBUST UPDRAFT
ACCELERATION FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. THIS REALLY PRECLUDES A
HAIL THREAT. PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE ALREADY STRONG SOUTHERLY
SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 900 MB SEEN
ON SOUNDINGS YIELDING A BIT UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE. PRESSURE
FALLS AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE SUPPORTED FREQUENT MIXING DOWN
OF THE MID-UPPER 30S KT GUSTS AT THE TOP OF THE CHANNEL.
THEREFORE...EVEN A LINE OF SHRA THAT APPEAR MEAGER ON RADAR COULD
TAP INTO THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT AND PRODUCE GUSTS HIGHER
THAN THE ALREADY STRONG SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN GUSTS.
GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE THOUGHTS AND ALSO LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR REALLY
BACKING DOWN ON SHRA COVERAGE...HAVE SCALED BACK POPS AND WORDING
INTO PRIMARILY CHANCE RANGE. ONLY MAINTAINED LOW-END LIKELIES IN
SOUTHEASTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE TIMING OF EROSION OF CAP
AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE OFFERS A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS.
RC
&&
.DISCUSSION...
315 PM CDT
SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED AND HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. THERE
WILL BE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PLEASE SEE THE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ABOUT STORMS TODAY.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ITS COLD FRONT
EXTENDS THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN...EASTERN IOWA...AND THEN BACK
THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PUSH EAST
AHEAD OF IT. THINKING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REALLY WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND MAY ONLY HAVE A FEW LINGERING STORMS EAST OF A
VALPARAISO INDIANA TO PAXTON ILLINOIS LINE.
WINDS WILL ALSO TURN WEST AND DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
REGION. FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT BUT RIGHT NOW THINKING IT WILL ONLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 3 OR 4 MILES IN PARTS SO DID NOT PUT FOG IN THE
FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER INDIANA/CENTRAL IL. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS FIRE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TOMORROW BUT
HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE AND OCCURRENCE OF STORMS.
AS SUCH CAPPED POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO USHER IN WARM AIR AND LOOKING AT A TOASTY DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 AWAY FROM THE LAKE. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED
AND THAT WILL KEEP DOWNTOWN TEMPERATURES AROUND 80.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TOMORROW AND MOVES
OVER WISCONSIN. EXPECTING BETTER STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE TO
BE OVER WISCONSIN...BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
I-80. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA REACHES SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND REMAINS RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A
STRETCH OF VERY SUMMERY WEATHER. A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE
PLAINS TUESDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH NO LAKE
BREEZE RELIEF DOWNTOWN.
A STATIONARY FRONT HANGS OUT OVER SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY. EXPECTING
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY MORNING DISSIPATE. GIVEN THE
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND LIFT FROM THE FRONT...MAY SEE ISOLATE
STORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIMITED POPS TO THE CHANCE
RANGE AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED.
THE WARM FRONT FROM THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE OVER THE MIDWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN WHERE IT WILL BE EXACTLY BUT THE
FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE THE LIFT NEEDED TO FIRE STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM BECAUSE IF THE FRONT IS FARTHER NORTH WE MAY NOT SEE ANY
STORMS. ONCE AGAIN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE NORTH OF
I-80 AND GREATEST ALONG THE WI/IL STATE LINE.
EXTENDED...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF KEY FEATURES
CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE EXTENDED. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF AND GEM BRING
THE LOW EAST QUICKER THAN THE GFS. THURSDAY LOOKS STORMY WITH THE
PLAINS WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND ITS COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WENT WITH ALLBLEND
POPS DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE.
THE EXTENDED STARTS OFF WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY TO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE A
LITTLE LAKE COOLING OVER LAKE COUNTY IL DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT THROUGH 00Z.
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SMALL CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS CHICAGO
METRO AREA THROUGH 00Z...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEFLY VARIABLE GUSTY
WINDS NEAR THEM.
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBY OR CIGS AFTER DARK.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
HAVE PULLED THE TEMPO TSRA FROM CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES AS SATELLITE
AND OTHER OBSERVATIONAL DATA...INCLUDING 18Z WEATHER BALLOON DATA
FROM LINCOLN IL...INDICATE LIMITED ABILITY FOR STORMS TO TRIGGER.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORED BY
AFTER 22Z ALONG AND EAST OF A CHICAGO TO PONTIAC LINE.
PREV DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA
ALTHOUGH IT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30-33 KT
ACROSS CHICAGOLAND SITES AND EVEN HIGHER AT AND AROUND ROCKFORD.
THESE TYPE OF WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH 21Z OR SO AND
REMAIN FROM NEARLY DUE SOUTH.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THE CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL IL.
THIS WILL MOVE EAST ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON OVERALL
COVERAGE. THERE VERY LIKELY WILL BE AREAS NOT TO SEE ANY
STORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE OF AROUND 50 PERCENT HAS ALLOWED FOR
CONTINUED MENTION OF TSRA IN THE CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES. HIGH
RESOLUTION COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT STORMS
WILL BE EAST OF CHICAGOLAND SITES BY 00Z-01Z. WINDS WILL
POTENTIALLY BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY AROUND STORMS...INCLUDING EVEN
BRIEFLY EASTERLY IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF STORMS AS CLIMATOLOGY
SHOWS.
TONIGHT THE CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR VISBYS
OR CIGS TO DEVELOP. VISBYS WILL LIKELY BE MORE FAVORED IF RAINFALL
OCCURS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH IN WIND TRENDS.
* LOW IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS OCCURRING AT THE AIRFIELD.
* LOW IN WHETHER MVFR CIGS OR VISBYS WILL OCCUR AT THE AIRFIELD
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF PERIODIC TSRA.
MTF/MDB
&&
.MARINE...
210 PM CDT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. A RATHER STOUT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...HAS SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
MOST OF THE STRONGEST FLOW OVER THE LAKE HAS REMAINED ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AT THE WATER SURFACE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE. IT APPEARS THE STRONG STABILITY OVER THE
LAKE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CUT DOWN ON THE WINDS AND WAVES HERE.
HOWEVER...THE WINDS MAY INCREASE SOME OVER THE OPEN WATERS YET THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS SHOULD ABATE LAKE-WIDE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE LAKE FROM THE WEST.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS THAT A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE LAKE AS
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE NORTH END OF THE
LAKE AND MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL ZONE COULD ALSO
SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF FOG OVER THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE HIGH DEW POINT AIR MASS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE OVER
THE COLD WATERS. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW EPISODES
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LAKE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THIS FRONT SETS UP OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD POSE
A SEVERE THREAT TO PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
317 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...239 PM CDT
OVERALL OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PREVIOUS THOUGHTS
OF AN ISOLATED AT BEST SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 18Z
ILX RAOB AS WELL AS RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRONOUNCED
CAPPING INVERSION ROUGHLY BETWEEN 900 MB AND A BIT ABOVE 800 MB.
FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND CONVERGENCE ON THE WANE AS PREVIOUSLY
BACKED SURFACE WINDS VEER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT APPROACHES
AND PASSES THE MS RIVER. THUS DESPITE EXPECTATION OF SOME COOLING OF
WARM LAYER ALOFT AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO RISE INTO THE 60S...THE
PIECES REALLY ARE NOT THERE FOR ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS
CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE...WITH MUCH SHALLOWER AND
RAGGED CU FROM FAR EASTERN IA AND ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL AS
COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE HEART OF SHORT WAVE.
MODIFYING ILX SOUNDING TO CURRENT CONDITIONS STILL ONLY YIELDS A BIT
OVER 1000 J/KG OF TALL SKINNY CAPE ABOVE CAP. THUS EVEN AS CAP
ERODES SOME THIS AFTERNOON...NOT EXPECTING ROBUST UPDRAFT
ACCELERATION FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. THIS REALLY PRECLUDES A
HAIL THREAT. PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE ALREADY STRONG SOUTHERLY
SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 900 MB SEEN
ON SOUNDINGS YIELDING A BIT UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE. PRESSURE
FALLS AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE SUPPORTED FREQUENT MIXING DOWN
OF THE MID-UPPER 30S KT GUSTS AT THE TOP OF THE CHANNEL.
THEREFORE...EVEN A LINE OF SHRA THAT APPEAR MEAGER ON RADAR COULD
TAP INTO THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT AND PRODUCE GUSTS HIGHER
THAN THE ALREADY STRONG SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN GUSTS.
GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE THOUGHTS AND ALSO LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR REALLY
BACKING DOWN ON SHRA COVERAGE...HAVE SCALED BACK POPS AND WORDING
INTO PRIMARILY CHANCE RANGE. ONLY MAINTAINED LOW-END LIKELIES IN
SOUTHEASTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE TIMING OF EROSION OF CAP
AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE OFFERS A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS.
RC
&&
.DISCUSSION...
315 PM CDT
SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED AND HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. THERE
WILL BE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PLEASE SEE THE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS ABOUT STORMS TODAY.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ITS COLD FRONT
EXTENDS THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN...EASTERN IOWA...AND THEN BACK
THROUGH NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PUSH EAST
AHEAD OF IT. THINKING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REALLY WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND MAY ONLY HAVE A FEW LINGERING STORMS EAST OF A
VALPARAISO INDIANA TO PAXTON ILLINOIS LINE.
WINDS WILL ALSO TURN WEST AND DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
REGION. FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT BUT RIGHT NOW THINKING IT WILL ONLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 3 OR 4 MILES IN PARTS SO DID NOT PUT FOG IN THE
FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER INDIANA/CENTRAL IL. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS FIRE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TOMORROW BUT
HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE AND OCCURRENCE OF STORMS.
AS SUCH CAPPED POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO USHER IN WARM AIR AND LOOKING AT A TOASTY DAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 AWAY FROM THE LAKE. A WEAK LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED
AND THAT WILL KEEP DOWNTOWN TEMPERATURES AROUND 80.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TOMORROW AND MOVES
OVER WISCONSIN. EXPECTING BETTER STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE TO
BE OVER WISCONSIN...BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
I-80. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE IL/WI STATE LINE WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA REACHES SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND REMAINS RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO A
STRETCH OF VERY SUMMERY WEATHER. A SURFACE LOW FORMS OVER THE
PLAINS TUESDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MIDWEST THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH NO LAKE
BREEZE RELIEF DOWNTOWN.
A STATIONARY FRONT HANGS OUT OVER SOUTHERN WI TUESDAY. EXPECTING
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY MORNING DISSIPATE. GIVEN THE
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND LIFT FROM THE FRONT...MAY SEE ISOLATE
STORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIMITED POPS TO THE CHANCE
RANGE AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED.
THE WARM FRONT FROM THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE OVER THE MIDWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN WHERE IT WILL BE EXACTLY BUT THE
FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE THE LIFT NEEDED TO FIRE STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM BECAUSE IF THE FRONT IS FARTHER NORTH WE MAY NOT SEE ANY
STORMS. ONCE AGAIN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE NORTH OF
I-80 AND GREATEST ALONG THE WI/IL STATE LINE.
EXTENDED...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF KEY FEATURES
CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE EXTENDED. IN GENERAL THE ECMWF AND GEM BRING
THE LOW EAST QUICKER THAN THE GFS. THURSDAY LOOKS STORMY WITH THE
PLAINS WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND ITS COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WENT WITH ALLBLEND
POPS DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE.
THE EXTENDED STARTS OFF WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY TO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY THE WEEKEND. MAY SEE A
LITTLE LAKE COOLING OVER LAKE COUNTY IL DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* SOUTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30KT THROUGH 21Z-
22Z.
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SMALL CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS CHICAGO
METRO AREA 21Z-00Z...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEFLY VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS
NEAR THEM.
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBY OR CIGS AFTER DARK.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
HAVE PULLED THE TEMPO TSRA FROM CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES AS SATELLITE
AND OTHER OBSERVATIONAL DATA...INCLUDING 18Z WEATHER BALLOON DATA
FROM LINCOLN IL...INDICATE LIMITED ABILITY FOR STORMS TO TRIGGER.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORED BY
AFTER 22Z ALONG AND EAST OF A CHICAGO TO PONTIAC LINE.
PREV DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA
ALTHOUGH IT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30-33 KT
ACROSS CHICAGOLAND SITES AND EVEN HIGHER AT AND AROUND ROCKFORD.
THESE TYPE OF WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH 21Z OR SO AND
REMAIN FROM NEARLY DUE SOUTH.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THE CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL IL.
THIS WILL MOVE EAST ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON OVERALL
COVERAGE. THERE VERY LIKELY WILL BE AREAS NOT TO SEE ANY
STORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE OF AROUND 50 PERCENT HAS ALLOWED FOR
CONTINUED MENTION OF TSRA IN THE CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES. HIGH
RESOLUTION COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT STORMS
WILL BE EAST OF CHICAGOLAND SITES BY 00Z-01Z. WINDS WILL
POTENTIALLY BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY AROUND STORMS...INCLUDING EVEN
BRIEFLY EASTERLY IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF STORMS AS CLIMATOLOGY
SHOWS.
TONIGHT THE CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR VISBYS
OR CIGS TO DEVELOP. VISBYS WILL LIKELY BE MORE FAVORED IF RAINFALL
OCCURS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH THAT NEARLY DUE SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR AROUND
30 KT THROUGH 21Z BEFORE SLOWLY COMING DOWN.
* LOW IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS OCCURRING AT THE AIRFIELD.
* LOW IN WHETHER MVFR CIGS OR VISBYS WILL OCCUR AT THE AIRFIELD
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF PERIODIC TSRA.
MTF/MDB
&&
.MARINE...
210 PM CDT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. A RATHER STOUT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...HAS SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
MOST OF THE STRONGEST FLOW OVER THE LAKE HAS REMAINED ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AT THE WATER SURFACE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE. IT APPEARS THE STRONG STABILITY OVER THE
LAKE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CUT DOWN ON THE WINDS AND WAVES HERE.
HOWEVER...THE WINDS MAY INCREASE SOME OVER THE OPEN WATERS YET THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS SHOULD ABATE LAKE-WIDE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE LAKE FROM THE WEST.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS THAT A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE LAKE AS
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE NORTH END OF THE
LAKE AND MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL ZONE COULD ALSO
SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF FOG OVER THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE HIGH DEW POINT AIR MASS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE OVER
THE COLD WATERS. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW EPISODES
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LAKE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THIS FRONT SETS UP OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD POSE
A SEVERE THREAT TO PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
250 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
239 PM CDT
OVERALL OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PREVIOUS THOUGHTS
OF AN ISOLATED AT BEST SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 18Z
ILX RAOB AS WELL AS RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRONOUNCED
CAPPING INVERSION ROUGHLY BETWEEN 900 MB AND A BIT ABOVE 800 MB.
FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND CONVERGENCE ON THE WANE AS PREVIOUSLY
BACKED SURFACE WINDS VEER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT APPROACHES
AND PASSES THE MS RIVER. THUS DESPITE EXPECTATION OF SOME COOLING OF
WARM LAYER ALOFT AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO RISE INTO THE 60S...THE
PIECES REALLY ARE NOT THERE FOR ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS
CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE...WITH MUCH SHALLOWER AND
RAGGED CU FROM FAR EASTERN IA AND ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL AS
COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE HEART OF SHORT WAVE.
MODIFYING ILX SOUNDING TO CURRENT CONDITIONS STILL ONLY YIELDS A BIT
OVER 1000 J/KG OF TALL SKINNY CAPE ABOVE CAP. THUS EVEN AS CAP
ERODES SOME THIS AFTERNOON...NOT EXPECTING ROBUST UPDRAFT
ACCELERATION FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. THIS REALLY PRECLUDES A
HAIL THREAT. PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE ALREADY STRONG SOUTHERLY
SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 900 MB SEEN
ON SOUNDINGS YIELDING A BIT UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE. PRESSURE
FALLS AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE SUPPORTED FREQUENT MIXING DOWN
OF THE MID-UPPER 30S KT GUSTS AT THE TOP OF THE CHANNEL.
THEREFORE...EVEN A LINE OF SHRA THAT APPEAR MEAGER ON RADAR COULD
TAP INTO THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT AND PRODUCE GUSTS HIGHER
THAN THE ALREADY STRONG SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN GUSTS.
GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE THOUGHTS AND ALSO LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR REALLY
BACKING DOWN ON SHRA COVERAGE...HAVE SCALED BACK POPS AND WORDING
INTO PRIMARILY CHANCE RANGE. ONLY MAINTAINED LOW-END LIKELIES IN
SOUTHEASTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE TIMING OF EROSION OF CAP
AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE OFFERS A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS.
RC
&&
//PREV DISCUSSION...
306 AM CDT
FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING INCLUDE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...AND AN ACTIVE SUMMERTIME PATTERN
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND PROGGED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THEN
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS
THE PLAINS MOVING INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING THOUGH
HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING WITH DECREASING LIGHTNING COUNT
AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. EXTRAPOLATION
OF THE LINE HAS IT INTO OUR AREA MID MORNING SO EXPECT MUCH OF THE
MORNING TO REMAIN DRY.
AS THE UPPER WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...A BETTER
ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MINNESOTA THEN
LIFT NORTH INTO MANITOBA/QUEBEC THIS EVENING AND PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITHIN THIS FRONTAL TROUGH...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 80S WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT. THE CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT NARROW THOUGH WITH UPPER 40 TO LOW 50
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY FARTHER EAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN DRY WEATHER LOCALLY UNTIL THE FRONT NEARS. PARED BACK POPS
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING AS IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT ANY REMNANT
ACTIVITY FROM THE MCS WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST INTO THE CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE
UPPER JET. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS/CONCERNS TODAY FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT INCLUDE CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WHICH MAY TEMPER
OUR ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH APPEARS MARGINAL PER SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS. AND AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...NORTHWARD LIFTING LOW WILL STRETCH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INTO STRONG RIDGING ANCHORED IN THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...AN IDEA
SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND THE 00Z SPC 4KM WRF WHICH SHOWS FAIRLY
LIMITED ACTIVITY. SEVERE WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MIGHT BE POSSIBLE NEAR
INITIATION IF WINDS CAN REMAIN BACKED...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER MORE TO THE SSW WITH THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT. OVERALL...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
NOT ZERO BUT APPEARS UNIMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW COVERAGE.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FRONT STARTS TO
LAY OUT BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR
VECTORS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
AND POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS LINE
SETS UP...WHICH APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO LAY OUT AND STALL ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA WHILE MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WESTWARD SLIGHTLY WITH THERMAL RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS STARTING
TO WRAP BACK EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. H85 TEMPS WARM
TO AROUND 18C MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH HOWEVER...A LAKE BREEZE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DEVELOP MONDAY COOLING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE BACK
INTO THE 70S PERHAPS 60S RIGHT NEAR THE LAKE FRONT. H85 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM TUESDAY WITH SOME MODELS NOW SUGGESTING TEMPS TO
AROUND 23C WHICH WOULD EASILY SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE 90S PERHAPS MID
90S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX
NORTH OF US BY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE BETTER CONSENSUS IN PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...TAPERED POPS SOME ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND NUDGED
TEMPS UP TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GEMNH AND ECMWF WHICH
GAVE LOW TO MID 90S. CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHEST TEMPS REMAINS BEST IN
THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BE MOST REMOVED FROM ANY PRECIP/DEBRIS.
WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR CUT WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR OUTFLOW
AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND MAKING THE TEMP FORECAST A BIT MORE
TRICKY. WILL STICK TO THE CONSENSUS BLEND FOR NOW...BUT AGAIN
WEDNESDAY CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPS GETTING WELL INTO THE 90S IF THINGS
PLAY OUT RIGHT. WHEREVER THE THUNDERSTORMS END UP DEVELOPING THIS
PERIOD...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODEL SOLUTIONS QUICKLY DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH EITHER WAY IT APPEARS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DID NOT
STRAY FROM A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* SOUTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30KT THROUGH 21Z-
22Z.
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SMALL CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS CHICAGO
METRO AREA 21Z-00Z...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEFLY VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS
NEAR THEM.
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBY OR CIGS AFTER DARK.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
HAVE PULLED THE TEMPO TSRA FROM CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES AS SATELLITE
AND OTHER OBSERVATIONAL DATA...INCLUDING 18Z WEATHER BALLOON DATA
FROM LICOLN IL...INDICATE LIMITED ABILITY FOR STORMS TO TRIGGER.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORED BY
AFTER 22Z ALONG AND EAST OF A CHICAGO TO PONTIAC LINE.
PREV DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA
ALTHOUGH IT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30-33 KT
ACROSS CHICAGOLAND SITES AND EVEN HIGHER AT AND AROUND ROCKFORD.
THESE TYPE OF WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH 21Z OR SO AND
REMAIN FROM NEARLY DUE SOUTH.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THE CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL IL.
THIS WILL MOVE EAST ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON OVERALL
COVERAGE. THERE VERY LIKELY WILL BE AREAS NOT TO SEE ANY
STORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE OF AROUND 50 PERCENT HAS ALLOWED FOR
CONTINUED MENTION OF TSRA IN THE CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES. HIGH
RESOLUTION COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT STORMS
WILL BE EAST OF CHICAGOLAND SITES BY 00Z-01Z. WINDS WILL
POTENTIALLY BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY AROUND STORMS...INCLUDING EVEN
BRIEFLY EASTERLY IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF STORMS AS CLIMATOLOGY
SHOWS.
TONIGHT THE CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR VISBYS
OR CIGS TO DEVELOP. VISBYS WILL LIKELY BE MORE FAVORED IF RAINFALL
OCCURS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH THAT NEARLY DUE SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR AROUND
30 KT THROUGH 21Z BEFORE SLOWLY COMING DOWN.
* LOW IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS OCCURRING AT THE AIRFIELD.
* LOW IN WHETHER MVFR CIGS OR VISBYS WILL OCCUR AT THE AIRFIELD
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF PERIODIC TSRA.
MTF/MDB
&&
.MARINE...
210 PM CDT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. A RATHER STOUT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...HAS SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
MOST OF THE STRONGEST FLOW OVER THE LAKE HAS REMAINED ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AT THE WATER SURFACE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE. IT APPEARS THE STRONG STABILITY OVER THE
LAKE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CUT DOWN ON THE WINDS AND WAVES HERE.
HOWEVER...THE WINDS MAY INCREASE SOME OVER THE OPEN WATERS YET THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS SHOULD ABATE LAKE-WIDE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE LAKE FROM THE WEST.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS THAT A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE LAKE AS
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE NORTH END OF THE
LAKE AND MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL ZONE COULD ALSO
SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF FOG OVER THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE HIGH DEW POINT AIR MASS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE OVER
THE COLD WATERS. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW EPISODES
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LAKE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THIS FRONT SETS UP OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD POSE
A SEVERE THREAT TO PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
239 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
239 PM CDT
OVERALL OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PREVIOUS THOUGHTS
OF AN ISOLATED AT BEST SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 18Z
ILX RAOB AS WELL AS RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRONOUNCED
CAPPING INVERSION ROUGHLY BETWEEN 900 MB AND A BIT ABOVE 800 MB.
FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND CONVERGENCE ON THE WANE AS PREVIOUSLY
BACKED SURFACE WINDS VEER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT APPROACHES
AND PASSES THE MS RIVER. THUS DESPITE EXPECTATION OF SOME COOLING OF
WARM LAYER ALOFT AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO RISE INTO THE 60S...THE
PIECES REALLY ARE NOT THERE FOR ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS
CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE...WITH MUCH SHALLOWER AND
RAGGED CU FROM FAR EASTERN IA AND ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL AS
COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE HEART OF SHORT WAVE.
MODIFYING ILX SOUNDING TO CURRENT CONDITIONS STILL ONLY YIELDS A BIT
OVER 1000 J/KG OF TALL SKINNY CAPE ABOVE CAP. THUS EVEN AS CAP
ERODES SOME THIS AFTERNOON...NOT EXPECTING ROBUST UPDRAFT
ACCELERATION FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM. THIS REALLY PRECLUDES A
HAIL THREAT. PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE ALREADY STRONG SOUTHERLY
SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO 900 MB SEEN
ON SOUNDINGS YIELDING A BIT UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE. PRESSURE
FALLS AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE SUPPORTED FREQUENT MIXING DOWN
OF THE MID-UPPER 30S KT GUSTS AT THE TOP OF THE CHANNEL.
THEREFORE...EVEN A LINE OF SHRA THAT APPEAR MEAGER ON RADAR COULD
TAP INTO THE HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT AND PRODUCE GUSTS HIGHER
THAN THE ALREADY STRONG SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN GUSTS.
GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE THOUGHTS AND ALSO LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR REALLY
BACKING DOWN ON SHRA COVERAGE...HAVE SCALED BACK POPS AND WORDING
INTO PRIMARILY CHANCE RANGE. ONLY MAINTAINED LOW-END LIKELIES IN
SOUTHEASTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE TIMING OF EROSION OF CAP
AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE OFFERS A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUS.
RC
&&
//PREV DISCUSSION...
306 AM CDT
FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING INCLUDE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...AND AN ACTIVE SUMMERTIME PATTERN
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND PROGGED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THEN
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS
THE PLAINS MOVING INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING THOUGH
HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING WITH DECREASING LIGHTNING COUNT
AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. EXTRAPOLATION
OF THE LINE HAS IT INTO OUR AREA MID MORNING SO EXPECT MUCH OF THE
MORNING TO REMAIN DRY.
AS THE UPPER WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...A BETTER
ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MINNESOTA THEN
LIFT NORTH INTO MANITOBA/QUEBEC THIS EVENING AND PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITHIN THIS FRONTAL TROUGH...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 80S WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT. THE CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT NARROW THOUGH WITH UPPER 40 TO LOW 50
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY FARTHER EAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN DRY WEATHER LOCALLY UNTIL THE FRONT NEARS. PARED BACK POPS
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING AS IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT ANY REMNANT
ACTIVITY FROM THE MCS WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST INTO THE CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE
UPPER JET. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS/CONCERNS TODAY FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT INCLUDE CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WHICH MAY TEMPER
OUR ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH APPEARS MARGINAL PER SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS. AND AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...NORTHWARD LIFTING LOW WILL STRETCH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INTO STRONG RIDGING ANCHORED IN THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...AN IDEA
SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND THE 00Z SPC 4KM WRF WHICH SHOWS FAIRLY
LIMITED ACTIVITY. SEVERE WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MIGHT BE POSSIBLE NEAR
INITIATION IF WINDS CAN REMAIN BACKED...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER MORE TO THE SSW WITH THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT. OVERALL...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
NOT ZERO BUT APPEARS UNIMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW COVERAGE.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FRONT STARTS TO
LAY OUT BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR
VECTORS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
AND POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS LINE
SETS UP...WHICH APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO LAY OUT AND STALL ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA WHILE MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WESTWARD SLIGHTLY WITH THERMAL RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS STARTING
TO WRAP BACK EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. H85 TEMPS WARM
TO AROUND 18C MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH HOWEVER...A LAKE BREEZE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DEVELOP MONDAY COOLING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE BACK
INTO THE 70S PERHAPS 60S RIGHT NEAR THE LAKE FRONT. H85 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM TUESDAY WITH SOME MODELS NOW SUGGESTING TEMPS TO
AROUND 23C WHICH WOULD EASILY SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE 90S PERHAPS MID
90S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX
NORTH OF US BY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE BETTER CONSENSUS IN PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...TAPERED POPS SOME ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND NUDGED
TEMPS UP TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GEMNH AND ECMWF WHICH
GAVE LOW TO MID 90S. CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHEST TEMPS REMAINS BEST IN
THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BE MOST REMOVED FROM ANY PRECIP/DEBRIS.
WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR CUT WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR OUTFLOW
AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND MAKING THE TEMP FORECAST A BIT MORE
TRICKY. WILL STICK TO THE CONSENSUS BLEND FOR NOW...BUT AGAIN
WEDNESDAY CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPS GETTING WELL INTO THE 90S IF THINGS
PLAY OUT RIGHT. WHEREVER THE THUNDERSTORMS END UP DEVELOPING THIS
PERIOD...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODEL SOLUTIONS QUICKLY DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH EITHER WAY IT APPEARS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DID NOT
STRAY FROM A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SOUTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30KT THROUGH 21Z-
22Z.
* SCATTERED STORMS MOVING ACROSS CHICAGO METRO AREA 21Z-00Z...WITH
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS NEAR THEM.
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBY OR CIGS AFTER DARK.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA
ALTHOUGH IT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30-33 KT
ACROSS CHICAGOLAND SITES AND EVEN HIGHER AT AND AROUND ROCKFORD.
THESE TYPE OF WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH 21Z OR SO AND
REMAIN FROM NEARLY DUE SOUTH.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THE CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL IL.
THIS WILL MOVE EAST ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON OVERALL
COVERAGE. THERE VERY LIKELY WILL BE AREAS NOT TO SEE ANY
STORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE OF AROUND 50 PERCENT HAS ALLOWED FOR
CONTINUED MENTION OF TSRA IN THE CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES. HIGH
RESOLUTION COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT STORMS
WILL BE EAST OF CHICAGOLAND SITES BY 00Z-01Z. WINDS WILL
POTENTIALLY BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY AROUND STORMS...INCLUDING EVEN
BRIEFLY EASTERLY IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF STORMS AS CLIMATOLOGY
SHOWS.
TONIGHT THE CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR VISBYS
OR CIGS TO DEVELOP. VISBYS WILL LIKELY BE MORE FAVORED IF RAINFALL
OCCURS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH THAT NEARLY DUE SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR
AROUND 30 KT.
* MEDIUM IN STORMS OCCURRING AT THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND
MEDIUM-HIGH IN TIMING.
* LOW IN WHETHER MVFR CIGS OR VISBYS WILL OCCUR AT THE AIRFIELD
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF PERIODIC TSRA.
MTF/MDB
&&
.MARINE...
210 PM CDT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. A RATHER STOUT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...HAS SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
MOST OF THE STRONGEST FLOW OVER THE LAKE HAS REMAINED ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AT THE WATER SURFACE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE. IT APPEARS THE STRONG STABILITY OVER THE
LAKE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CUT DOWN ON THE WINDS AND WAVES HERE.
HOWEVER...THE WINDS MAY INCREASE SOME OVER THE OPEN WATERS YET THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS SHOULD ABATE LAKE-WIDE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE LAKE FROM THE WEST.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS THAT A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE LAKE AS
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE NORTH END OF THE
LAKE AND MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL ZONE COULD ALSO
SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF FOG OVER THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE HIGH DEW POINT AIR MASS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE OVER
THE COLD WATERS. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW EPISODES
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LAKE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THIS FRONT SETS UP OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD POSE
A SEVERE THREAT TO PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
211 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1040 AM CDT
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THAT INCLUDE LOWERING
POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. STILL ANTICIPATE SCATTERED
STORMS...BUT AS NOTED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION THE CONCERNS LIMITING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ARE SHOWING UP IN OBSERVATIONAL FIELDS. THIS
ALSO SOMEWHAT TEMPERS THE CHANCES OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
A POTENT SHORT WAVE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO CENTRAL IA
CONTINUES TO WRAP NORTHEAST AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ND.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT WAS TRIGGERED BY THIS FADED BUT LEFT
ITS IMPRINT WITH MUCH DEBRIS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. THERE
IS EVEN 4000-6000FT CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THETA-E ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. AN ELEVATED OUTFLOW IS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
FROM NORTH CENTRAL IL SOUTHWARD TO THE ST LOUIS AREA. SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS TOWARD ST LOUIS AND DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL IL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME INTO THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG PLAYER.
THE DEBRIS CLOUD HAS BEGUN TO FADE ACROSS THE DVN CWA WITH
GRADUAL DESTABILIZING OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST FROM CENTRAL IA. AN ADAPTED 12Z DVN SOUNDING WOULD
INDICATE AROUND 83-84 DEGREES NEEDED FOR INITIATION OF CONVECTION
GIVEN THE MID 60S DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THAT AREA. BEING UNDER
THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AND STILL REALIZING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SEEN BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THAT AREA BUILDING SOUTHWARD WHILE OVERALL
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THE BETTER SHORT WAVE WILL
BE REMAINING MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A SECOND
MORE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVE FURTHER SOUTH. THAT GAP IN MORE
SUPPORTIVE MID-LEVEL FORCING COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER
LIMITING IMMEDIATE DESTABILIZATION OVER THE CWA HAS LED TO AN
EXPECTED LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS. WITH LESS STORMS/LESS COLD
POOLS THIS AFTERNOON COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TRUNCATED INTO
THE EVE.
WITH REGARD TO WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE CLEARING AREA
OF EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL...DUBUQUE IA OBSERVE A 40 MPH GUST.
PROFILER WINDS AND RAP SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST SUCH GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IF WE DO SCATTER...WHICH NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT WE WILL.
NORTH CENTRAL IL WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR SOME OF THOSE
GUSTS AS PRESSURE FALLS WILL ALSO ENCOMPASS THERE THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON. WITH ALREADY A 35 MPH GUST AT ROCKFORD...WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.
MTF/KJB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
306 AM CDT
FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING INCLUDE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...AND AN ACTIVE SUMMERTIME PATTERN
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND PROGGED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THEN
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS
THE PLAINS MOVING INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING THOUGH
HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING WITH DECREASING LIGHTNING COUNT
AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. EXTRAPOLATION
OF THE LINE HAS IT INTO OUR AREA MID MORNING SO EXPECT MUCH OF THE
MORNING TO REMAIN DRY.
AS THE UPPER WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...A BETTER
ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MINNESOTA THEN
LIFT NORTH INTO MANITOBA/QUEBEC THIS EVENING AND PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITHIN THIS FRONTAL TROUGH...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 80S WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT. THE CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT NARROW THOUGH WITH UPPER 40 TO LOW 50
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY FARTHER EAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN DRY WEATHER LOCALLY UNTIL THE FRONT NEARS. PARED BACK POPS
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING AS IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT ANY REMNANT
ACTIVITY FROM THE MCS WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST INTO THE CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE
UPPER JET. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS/CONCERNS TODAY FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT INCLUDE CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WHICH MAY TEMPER
OUR ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH APPEARS MARGINAL PER SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS. AND AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...NORTHWARD LIFTING LOW WILL STRETCH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INTO STRONG RIDGING ANCHORED IN THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...AN IDEA
SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND THE 00Z SPC 4KM WRF WHICH SHOWS FAIRLY
LIMITED ACTIVITY. SEVERE WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MIGHT BE POSSIBLE NEAR
INITIATION IF WINDS CAN REMAIN BACKED...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER MORE TO THE SSW WITH THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT. OVERALL...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
NOT ZERO BUT APPEARS UNIMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW COVERAGE.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FRONT STARTS TO
LAY OUT BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR
VECTORS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
AND POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS LINE
SETS UP...WHICH APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO LAY OUT AND STALL ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA WHILE MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WESTWARD SLIGHTLY WITH THERMAL RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS STARTING
TO WRAP BACK EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. H85 TEMPS WARM
TO AROUND 18C MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH HOWEVER...A LAKE BREEZE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DEVELOP MONDAY COOLING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE BACK
INTO THE 70S PERHAPS 60S RIGHT NEAR THE LAKE FRONT. H85 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM TUESDAY WITH SOME MODELS NOW SUGGESTING TEMPS TO
AROUND 23C WHICH WOULD EASILY SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE 90S PERHAPS MID
90S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX
NORTH OF US BY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE BETTER CONSENSUS IN PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...TAPERED POPS SOME ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND NUDGED
TEMPS UP TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GEMNH AND ECMWF WHICH
GAVE LOW TO MID 90S. CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHEST TEMPS REMAINS BEST IN
THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BE MOST REMOVED FROM ANY PRECIP/DEBRIS.
WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR CUT WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR OUTFLOW
AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND MAKING THE TEMP FORECAST A BIT MORE
TRICKY. WILL STICK TO THE CONSENSUS BLEND FOR NOW...BUT AGAIN
WEDNESDAY CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPS GETTING WELL INTO THE 90S IF THINGS
PLAY OUT RIGHT. WHEREVER THE THUNDERSTORMS END UP DEVELOPING THIS
PERIOD...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODEL SOLUTIONS QUICKLY DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH EITHER WAY IT APPEARS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DID NOT
STRAY FROM A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SOUTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30KT THROUGH 21Z-
22Z.
* SCATTERED STORMS MOVING ACROSS CHICAGO METRO AREA 21Z-00Z...WITH
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS NEAR THEM.
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBY OR CIGS AFTER DARK.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA
ALTHOUGH IT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30-33 KT
ACROSS CHICAGOLAND SITES AND EVEN HIGHER AT AND AROUND ROCKFORD.
THESE TYPE OF WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH 21Z OR SO AND
REMAIN FROM NEARLY DUE SOUTH.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THE CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL IL.
THIS WILL MOVE EAST ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON OVERALL
COVERAGE. THERE VERY LIKELY WILL BE AREAS NOT TO SEE ANY
STORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE OF AROUND 50 PERCENT HAS ALLOWED FOR
CONTINUED MENTION OF TSRA IN THE CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES. HIGH
RESOLUTION COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT STORMS
WILL BE EAST OF CHICAGOLAND SITES BY 00Z-01Z. WINDS WILL
POTENTIALLY BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY AROUND STORMS...INCLUDING EVEN
BRIEFLY EASTERLY IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF STORMS AS CLIMATOLOGY
SHOWS.
TONIGHT THE CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR VISBYS
OR CIGS TO DEVELOP. VISBYS WILL LIKELY BE MORE FAVORED IF RAINFALL
OCCURS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH THAT NEARLY DUE SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR
AROUND 30 KT.
* MEDIUM IN STORMS OCCURRING AT THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND
MEDIUM-HIGH IN TIMING.
* LOW IN WHETHER MVFR CIGS OR VISBYS WILL OCCUR AT THE AIRFIELD
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF PERIODIC TSRA.
MTF/MDB
&&
.MARINE...
210 PM CDT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. A RATHER STOUT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...HAS SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AND IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
MOST OF THE STRONGEST FLOW OVER THE LAKE HAS REMAINED ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AT THE WATER SURFACE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE. IT APPEARS THE STRONG STABILITY OVER THE
LAKE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CUT DOWN ON THE WINDS AND WAVES HERE.
HOWEVER...THE WINDS MAY INCREASE SOME OVER THE OPEN WATERS YET THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS SHOULD ABATE LAKE-WIDE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE LAKE FROM THE WEST.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...IT APPEARS THAT A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE LAKE AS
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE NORTH END OF THE
LAKE AND MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH. THIS FRONTAL ZONE COULD ALSO
SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF FOG OVER THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE HIGH DEW POINT AIR MASS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE OVER
THE COLD WATERS. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW EPISODES
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE LAKE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THIS FRONT SETS UP OVER THE LAKE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD POSE
A SEVERE THREAT TO PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1259 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1040 AM CDT
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THAT INCLUDE LOWERING
POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. STILL ANTICIPATE SCATTERED
STORMS...BUT AS NOTED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION THE CONCERNS LIMITING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ARE SHOWING UP IN OBSERVATIONAL FIELDS. THIS
ALSO SOMEWHAT TEMPERS THE CHANCES OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
A POTENT SHORT WAVE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO CENTRAL IA
CONTINUES TO WRAP NORTHEAST AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ND.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT WAS TRIGGERED BY THIS FADED BUT LEFT
ITS IMPRINT WITH MUCH DEBRIS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. THERE
IS EVEN 4000-6000FT CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THETA-E ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. AN ELEVATED OUTFLOW IS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
FROM NORTH CENTRAL IL SOUTHWARD TO THE ST LOUIS AREA. SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS TOWARD ST LOUIS AND DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL IL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME INTO THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG PLAYER.
THE DEBRIS CLOUD HAS BEGUN TO FADE ACROSS THE DVN CWA WITH
GRADUAL DESTABILIZING OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST FROM CENTRAL IA. AN ADAPTED 12Z DVN SOUNDING WOULD
INDICATE AROUND 83-84 DEGREES NEEDED FOR INITIATION OF CONVECTION
GIVEN THE MID 60S DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THAT AREA. BEING UNDER
THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AND STILL REALIZING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SEEN BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THAT AREA BUILDING SOUTHWARD WHILE OVERALL
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THE BETTER SHORT WAVE WILL
BE REMAINING MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A SECOND
MORE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVE FURTHER SOUTH. THAT GAP IN MORE
SUPPORTIVE MID-LEVEL FORCING COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER
LIMITING IMMEDIATE DESTABILIZATION OVER THE CWA HAS LED TO AN
EXPECTED LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS. WITH LESS STORMS/LESS COLD
POOLS THIS AFTERNOON COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TRUNCATED INTO
THE EVE.
WITH REGARD TO WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE CLEARING AREA
OF EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL...DUBUQUE IA OBSERVE A 40 MPH GUST.
PROFILER WINDS AND RAP SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST SUCH GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IF WE DO SCATTER...WHICH NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT WE WILL.
NORTH CENTRAL IL WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR SOME OF THOSE
GUSTS AS PRESSURE FALLS WILL ALSO ENCOMPASS THERE THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON. WITH ALREADY A 35 MPH GUST AT ROCKFORD...WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.
MTF/KJB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
306 AM CDT
FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING INCLUDE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...AND AN ACTIVE SUMMERTIME PATTERN
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND PROGGED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THEN
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS
THE PLAINS MOVING INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING THOUGH
HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING WITH DECREASING LIGHTNING COUNT
AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. EXTRAPOLATION
OF THE LINE HAS IT INTO OUR AREA MID MORNING SO EXPECT MUCH OF THE
MORNING TO REMAIN DRY.
AS THE UPPER WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...A BETTER
ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MINNESOTA THEN
LIFT NORTH INTO MANITOBA/QUEBEC THIS EVENING AND PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITHIN THIS FRONTAL TROUGH...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 80S WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT. THE CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT NARROW THOUGH WITH UPPER 40 TO LOW 50
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY FARTHER EAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN DRY WEATHER LOCALLY UNTIL THE FRONT NEARS. PARED BACK POPS
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING AS IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT ANY REMNANT
ACTIVITY FROM THE MCS WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST INTO THE CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE
UPPER JET. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS/CONCERNS TODAY FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT INCLUDE CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WHICH MAY TEMPER
OUR ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH APPEARS MARGINAL PER SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS. AND AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...NORTHWARD LIFTING LOW WILL STRETCH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INTO STRONG RIDGING ANCHORED IN THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...AN IDEA
SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND THE 00Z SPC 4KM WRF WHICH SHOWS FAIRLY
LIMITED ACTIVITY. SEVERE WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MIGHT BE POSSIBLE NEAR
INITIATION IF WINDS CAN REMAIN BACKED...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER MORE TO THE SSW WITH THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT. OVERALL...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
NOT ZERO BUT APPEARS UNIMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW COVERAGE.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FRONT STARTS TO
LAY OUT BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR
VECTORS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
AND POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS LINE
SETS UP...WHICH APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO LAY OUT AND STALL ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA WHILE MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WESTWARD SLIGHTLY WITH THERMAL RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS STARTING
TO WRAP BACK EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. H85 TEMPS WARM
TO AROUND 18C MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH HOWEVER...A LAKE BREEZE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DEVELOP MONDAY COOLING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE BACK
INTO THE 70S PERHAPS 60S RIGHT NEAR THE LAKE FRONT. H85 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM TUESDAY WITH SOME MODELS NOW SUGGESTING TEMPS TO
AROUND 23C WHICH WOULD EASILY SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE 90S PERHAPS MID
90S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX
NORTH OF US BY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE BETTER CONSENSUS IN PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...TAPERED POPS SOME ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND NUDGED
TEMPS UP TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GEMNH AND ECMWF WHICH
GAVE LOW TO MID 90S. CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHEST TEMPS REMAINS BEST IN
THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BE MOST REMOVED FROM ANY PRECIP/DEBRIS.
WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR CUT WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR OUTFLOW
AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND MAKING THE TEMP FORECAST A BIT MORE
TRICKY. WILL STICK TO THE CONSENSUS BLEND FOR NOW...BUT AGAIN
WEDNESDAY CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPS GETTING WELL INTO THE 90S IF THINGS
PLAY OUT RIGHT. WHEREVER THE THUNDERSTORMS END UP DEVELOPING THIS
PERIOD...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODEL SOLUTIONS QUICKLY DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH EITHER WAY IT APPEARS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DID NOT
STRAY FROM A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SOUTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30KT THROUGH 21Z-
22Z.
* SCATTERED STORMS MOVING ACROSS CHICAGO METRO AREA 21Z-00Z...WITH
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS NEAR THEM.
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBY OR CIGS AFTER DARK.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA
ALTHOUGH IT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30-33 KT
ACROSS CHICAGOLAND SITES AND EVEN HIGHER AT AND AROUND ROCKFORD.
THESE TYPE OF WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH 21Z OR SO AND
REMAIN FROM NEARLY DUE SOUTH.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THE CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL IL.
THIS WILL MOVE EAST ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON OVERALL
COVERAGE. THERE VERY LIKELY WILL BE AREAS NOT TO SEE ANY
STORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE OF AROUND 50 PERCENT HAS ALLOWED FOR
CONTINUED MENTION OF TSRA IN THE CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES. HIGH
RESOLUTION COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT STORMS
WILL BE EAST OF CHICAGOLAND SITES BY 00Z-01Z. WINDS WILL
POTENTIALLY BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY AROUND STORMS...INCLUDING EVEN
BRIEFLY EASTERLY IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF STORMS AS CLIMATOLOGY
SHOWS.
TONIGHT THE CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR VISBYS
OR CIGS TO DEVELOP. VISBYS WILL LIKELY BE MORE FAVORED IF RAINFALL
OCCURS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH THAT NEARLY DUE SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR
AROUND 30 KT.
* MEDIUM IN STORMS OCCURRING AT THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND
MEDIUM-HIGH IN TIMING.
* LOW IN WHETHER MVFR CIGS OR VISBYS WILL OCCUR AT THE AIRFIELD
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF PERIODIC TSRA.
MTF/MDB
&&
.MARINE...
312 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM JAMES BAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA. THIS LOW WILL
THEN REACH EASTERN MANITOBA TONIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING AND TURN TO THE SOUTH
WHILE DOING SO. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 25-30 KT
SPEEDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE
INDIANA WATERS MAY SEE WINDS FALL BELOW CRITERIA A LITTLE EARLIER
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WILL CROSS THE
LAKE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BRINGING A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AS
WELL AS A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE ACROSS AT
LEAST NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND
MAY SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AGAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
TUESDAY AS A PORTION OF THE LOW TO THE WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO. A FRONT STRETCHING FROM THIS WEAKER LOW TO A BETTER
ORGANIZED LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY STALL ACROSS THE LAKE
INTO WEDNESDAY LEADING TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. NOT TOO
CONFIDENT IN HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES FROM MID WEEK ONWARD BUT THIS
BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN IN THE REGION LEADING TO FLUCTUATIONS IN WINDS.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1258 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1040 AM CDT
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THAT INCLUDE LOWERING
POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. STILL ANTICIPATE SCATTERED
STORMS...BUT AS NOTED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION THE CONCERNS LIMITING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ARE SHOWING UP IN OBSERVATIONAL FIELDS. THIS
ALSO SOMEWHAT TEMPERS THE CHANCES OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
A POTENT SHORT WAVE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO CENTRAL IA
CONTINUES TO WRAP NORTHEAST AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ND.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT WAS TRIGGERED BY THIS FADED BUT LEFT
ITS IMPRINT WITH MUCH DEBRIS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. THERE
IS EVEN 4000-6000FT CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THETA-E ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. AN ELEVATED OUTFLOW IS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
FROM NORTH CENTRAL IL SOUTHWARD TO THE ST LOUIS AREA. SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS TOWARD ST LOUIS AND DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL IL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME INTO THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG PLAYER.
THE DEBRIS CLOUD HAS BEGUN TO FADE ACROSS THE DVN CWA WITH
GRADUAL DESTABILIZING OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST FROM CENTRAL IA. AN ADAPTED 12Z DVN SOUNDING WOULD
INDICATE AROUND 83-84 DEGREES NEEDED FOR INITIATION OF CONVECTION
GIVEN THE MID 60S DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THAT AREA. BEING UNDER
THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AND STILL REALIZING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SEEN BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THAT AREA BUILDING SOUTHWARD WHILE OVERALL
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THE BETTER SHORT WAVE WILL
BE REMAINING MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A SECOND
MORE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVE FURTHER SOUTH. THAT GAP IN MORE
SUPPORTIVE MID-LEVEL FORCING COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER
LIMITING IMMEDIATE DESTABILIZATION OVER THE CWA HAS LED TO AN
EXPECTED LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS. WITH LESS STORMS/LESS COLD
POOLS THIS AFTERNOON COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TRUNCATED INTO
THE EVE.
WITH REGARD TO WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE CLEARING AREA
OF EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL...DUBUQUE IA OBSERVE A 40 MPH GUST.
PROFILER WINDS AND RAP SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST SUCH GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IF WE DO SCATTER...WHICH NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT WE WILL.
NORTH CENTRAL IL WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR SOME OF THOSE
GUSTS AS PRESSURE FALLS WILL ALSO ENCOMPASS THERE THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON. WITH ALREADY A 35 MPH GUST AT ROCKFORD...WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.
MTF/KJB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
306 AM CDT
FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING INCLUDE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...AND AN ACTIVE SUMMERTIME PATTERN
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND PROGGED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THEN
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS
THE PLAINS MOVING INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING THOUGH
HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING WITH DECREASING LIGHTNING COUNT
AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. EXTRAPOLATION
OF THE LINE HAS IT INTO OUR AREA MID MORNING SO EXPECT MUCH OF THE
MORNING TO REMAIN DRY.
AS THE UPPER WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...A BETTER
ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MINNESOTA THEN
LIFT NORTH INTO MANITOBA/QUEBEC THIS EVENING AND PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITHIN THIS FRONTAL TROUGH...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 80S WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT. THE CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT NARROW THOUGH WITH UPPER 40 TO LOW 50
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY FARTHER EAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN DRY WEATHER LOCALLY UNTIL THE FRONT NEARS. PARED BACK POPS
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING AS IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT ANY REMNANT
ACTIVITY FROM THE MCS WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST INTO THE CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE
UPPER JET. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS/CONCERNS TODAY FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT INCLUDE CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WHICH MAY TEMPER
OUR ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH APPEARS MARGINAL PER SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS. AND AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...NORTHWARD LIFTING LOW WILL STRETCH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INTO STRONG RIDGING ANCHORED IN THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...AN IDEA
SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND THE 00Z SPC 4KM WRF WHICH SHOWS FAIRLY
LIMITED ACTIVITY. SEVERE WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MIGHT BE POSSIBLE NEAR
INITIATION IF WINDS CAN REMAIN BACKED...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER MORE TO THE SSW WITH THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT. OVERALL...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
NOT ZERO BUT APPEARS UNIMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW COVERAGE.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FRONT STARTS TO
LAY OUT BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR
VECTORS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
AND POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS LINE
SETS UP...WHICH APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO LAY OUT AND STALL ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA WHILE MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WESTWARD SLIGHTLY WITH THERMAL RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS STARTING
TO WRAP BACK EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. H85 TEMPS WARM
TO AROUND 18C MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH HOWEVER...A LAKE BREEZE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DEVELOP MONDAY COOLING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE BACK
INTO THE 70S PERHAPS 60S RIGHT NEAR THE LAKE FRONT. H85 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM TUESDAY WITH SOME MODELS NOW SUGGESTING TEMPS TO
AROUND 23C WHICH WOULD EASILY SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE 90S PERHAPS MID
90S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX
NORTH OF US BY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE BETTER CONSENSUS IN PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...TAPERED POPS SOME ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND NUDGED
TEMPS UP TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GEMNH AND ECMWF WHICH
GAVE LOW TO MID 90S. CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHEST TEMPS REMAINS BEST IN
THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BE MOST REMOVED FROM ANY PRECIP/DEBRIS.
WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR CUT WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR OUTFLOW
AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND MAKING THE TEMP FORECAST A BIT MORE
TRICKY. WILL STICK TO THE CONSENSUS BLEND FOR NOW...BUT AGAIN
WEDNESDAY CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPS GETTING WELL INTO THE 90S IF THINGS
PLAY OUT RIGHT. WHEREVER THE THUNDERSTORMS END UP DEVELOPING THIS
PERIOD...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODEL SOLUTIONS QUICKLY DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH EITHER WAY IT APPEARS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DID NOT
STRAY FROM A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SOUTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30KT THROUGH 21Z-
22Z.
* SCATTERED STORMS MOVING ACROSS CHICAGO METRO AREA 21Z-00Z...WITH
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS NEAR THEM.
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBY OR CIGS AFTER DARK.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA
ALTHOUGH IT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30-33 KT
ACROSS CHICAGOLAND SITES AND EVEN HIGHER AT AND AROUND ROCKFORD.
THESE TYPE OF WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH 21Z OR SO AND
REMAIN FROM NEARLY DUE SOUTH.
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THE CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL IL.
THIS WILL MOVE EAST ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON OVERALL
COVERAGE. THERE VERY LIKELY WILL BE AREAS NOT TO SEE ANY
STORMS...HOWEVER COVERAGE OF AROUND 50 PERCENT HAS ALLOWED FOR
CONTINUED MENTION OF TSRA IN THE CHICAGOLAND TAF SITES. HIGH
RESOLUTION COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT STORMS
WILL BE EAST OF CHICAGOLAND SITES BY 00Z-01Z. WINDS WILL
POTENTIALLY BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY AROUND STORMS...INCLUDING EVEN
BRIEFLY EASTERLY IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF STORMS AS CLIMATOLOGY
SHOWS.
TONIGHT THE CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR VISBYS
OR CIGS TO DEVELOP. VISBYS WILL LIKELY BE MORE FAVORED IF RAINFALL
OCCURS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH THAT NEARLY DUE SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR
AROUND 30 KT.
* MEDIUM IN STORMS OCCURRING AT THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND
MEDIUM-HIGH IN TIMING.
* LOW IN WHETHER MVFR CIGS OR VISBYS WILL OCCUR AT THE AIRFIELD
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF PERIODIC TSRA.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
312 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM JAMES BAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA. THIS LOW WILL
THEN REACH EASTERN MANITOBA TONIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING AND TURN TO THE SOUTH
WHILE DOING SO. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 25-30 KT
SPEEDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE
INDIANA WATERS MAY SEE WINDS FALL BELOW CRITERIA A LITTLE EARLIER
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WILL CROSS THE
LAKE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BRINGING A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AS
WELL AS A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE ACROSS AT
LEAST NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND
MAY SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AGAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
TUESDAY AS A PORTION OF THE LOW TO THE WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO. A FRONT STRETCHING FROM THIS WEAKER LOW TO A BETTER
ORGANIZED LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY STALL ACROSS THE LAKE
INTO WEDNESDAY LEADING TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. NOT TOO
CONFIDENT IN HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES FROM MID WEEK ONWARD BUT THIS
BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN IN THE REGION LEADING TO FLUCTUATIONS IN WINDS.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1115 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1040 AM CDT
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THAT INCLUDE LOWERING
POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. STILL ANTICIPATE SCATTERED
STORMS...BUT AS NOTED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION THE CONCERNS LIMITING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ARE SHOWING UP IN OBSERVATIONAL FIELDS. THIS
ALSO SOMEWHAT TEMPERS THE CHANCES OF SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
A POTENT SHORT WAVE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO CENTRAL IA
CONTINUES TO WRAP NORTHEAST AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ND.
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT WAS TRIGGERED BY THIS FADED BUT LEFT
ITS IMPRINT WITH MUCH DEBRIS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. THERE
IS EVEN 4000-6000FT CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THETA-E ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. AN ELEVATED OUTFLOW IS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
FROM NORTH CENTRAL IL SOUTHWARD TO THE ST LOUIS AREA. SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS TOWARD ST LOUIS AND DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL IL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
POSSIBLY SOME INTO THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG PLAYER.
THE DEBRIS CLOUD HAS BEGUN TO FADE ACROSS THE DVN CWA WITH
GRADUAL DESTABILIZING OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST FROM CENTRAL IA. AN ADAPTED 12Z DVN SOUNDING WOULD
INDICATE AROUND 83-84 DEGREES NEEDED FOR INITIATION OF CONVECTION
GIVEN THE MID 60S DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THAT AREA. BEING UNDER
THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AND STILL REALIZING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SEEN BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THAT AREA BUILDING SOUTHWARD WHILE OVERALL
TRANSLATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THE BETTER SHORT WAVE WILL
BE REMAINING MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A SECOND
MORE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WAVE FURTHER SOUTH. THAT GAP IN MORE
SUPPORTIVE MID-LEVEL FORCING COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER
LIMITING IMMEDIATE DESTABILIZATION OVER THE CWA HAS LED TO AN
EXPECTED LESS COVERAGE OF STORMS. WITH LESS STORMS/LESS COLD
POOLS THIS AFTERNOON COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TRUNCATED INTO
THE EVE.
WITH REGARD TO WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE CLEARING AREA
OF EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL...DUBUQUE IA OBSERVE A 40 MPH GUST.
PROFILER WINDS AND RAP SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST SUCH GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IF WE DO SCATTER...WHICH NOT ALL THAT CONFIDENT WE WILL.
NORTH CENTRAL IL WOULD BE THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR SOME OF THOSE
GUSTS AS PRESSURE FALLS WILL ALSO ENCOMPASS THERE THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON. WITH ALREADY A 35 MPH GUST AT ROCKFORD...WILL ISSUE AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES.
MTF/KJB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
306 AM CDT
FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING INCLUDE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...AND AN ACTIVE SUMMERTIME PATTERN
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND PROGGED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THEN
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS
THE PLAINS MOVING INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING THOUGH
HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING WITH DECREASING LIGHTNING COUNT
AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. EXTRAPOLATION
OF THE LINE HAS IT INTO OUR AREA MID MORNING SO EXPECT MUCH OF THE
MORNING TO REMAIN DRY.
AS THE UPPER WAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...A BETTER
ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MINNESOTA THEN
LIFT NORTH INTO MANITOBA/QUEBEC THIS EVENING AND PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITHIN THIS FRONTAL TROUGH...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 80S WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT. THE CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT NARROW THOUGH WITH UPPER 40 TO LOW 50
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY FARTHER EAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN DRY WEATHER LOCALLY UNTIL THE FRONT NEARS. PARED BACK POPS
SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING AS IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT ANY REMNANT
ACTIVITY FROM THE MCS WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST INTO THE CWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE
UPPER JET. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS/CONCERNS TODAY FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT INCLUDE CLOUDINESS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WHICH MAY TEMPER
OUR ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH APPEARS MARGINAL PER SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS. AND AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...NORTHWARD LIFTING LOW WILL STRETCH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INTO STRONG RIDGING ANCHORED IN THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS MAY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS...AN IDEA
SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND THE 00Z SPC 4KM WRF WHICH SHOWS FAIRLY
LIMITED ACTIVITY. SEVERE WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MIGHT BE POSSIBLE NEAR
INITIATION IF WINDS CAN REMAIN BACKED...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER MORE TO THE SSW WITH THE ONSET OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT. OVERALL...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
NOT ZERO BUT APPEARS UNIMPRESSIVE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW COVERAGE.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FRONT STARTS TO
LAY OUT BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR
VECTORS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
AND POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS LINE
SETS UP...WHICH APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO LAY OUT AND STALL ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND IN.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA WHILE MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY.
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
WESTWARD SLIGHTLY WITH THERMAL RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS STARTING
TO WRAP BACK EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. H85 TEMPS WARM
TO AROUND 18C MONDAY WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK HIGH HOWEVER...A LAKE BREEZE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO DEVELOP MONDAY COOLING TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE BACK
INTO THE 70S PERHAPS 60S RIGHT NEAR THE LAKE FRONT. H85 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM TUESDAY WITH SOME MODELS NOW SUGGESTING TEMPS TO
AROUND 23C WHICH WOULD EASILY SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE 90S PERHAPS MID
90S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO MIX
NORTH OF US BY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE BETTER CONSENSUS IN PRECIP TO OUR
NORTH TUESDAY...TAPERED POPS SOME ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND NUDGED
TEMPS UP TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED GEMNH AND ECMWF WHICH
GAVE LOW TO MID 90S. CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHEST TEMPS REMAINS BEST IN
THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BE MOST REMOVED FROM ANY PRECIP/DEBRIS.
WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR CUT WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR OUTFLOW
AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO PUSH SOUTH OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND MAKING THE TEMP FORECAST A BIT MORE
TRICKY. WILL STICK TO THE CONSENSUS BLEND FOR NOW...BUT AGAIN
WEDNESDAY CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPS GETTING WELL INTO THE 90S IF THINGS
PLAY OUT RIGHT. WHEREVER THE THUNDERSTORMS END UP DEVELOPING THIS
PERIOD...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODEL SOLUTIONS QUICKLY DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH EITHER WAY IT APPEARS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DID NOT
STRAY FROM A GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE THIS PERIOD GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.
DEUBELBEISS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* SOUTH WINDS GUSTING 23-30KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
* TIMING AND COVERAGE OF TSRA THIS MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVE.
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS OR VSBY TONIGHT.
MTF/MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW/NC/W IL
AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LIKELY MOVING OVER
THE CHICAGO METRO REGION DURING THE 21Z-00Z PERIOD. THE DEGREE OF
COVERAGE IS FAVORED TO BE LESS THAN EARLIER THOUGHT DUE TO LESS
DESTABILIZATION...AROUND 50 PERCENT COVERAGE ANTICIPATED BY THE
TIME THE AXIS OF SHOWERS/STORMS REACH CHICAGO. HAVE PREFERRED TO
KEEP THE TEMPO FOR THUNDER AT THIS TIME...BUT LIMITED THE
DURATION.
PREV DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LOW PRESSURE IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS MINNESOTA TODAY. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN WEAKENING ACROSS IOWA AND
MISSOURI...WITH THE FOCUS ACROSS OKLAHOMA. OUTFLOW FROM THE
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA
GENERATING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS. AT ITS CURRENT
SPEED THIS BOUNDARY WILL REACH RFD 14/15Z AND THE CHICAGO AREA A
FEW HOURS AFTER THAT. THE BOUNDARY MAY SLOW SOME AS IT WORKS
EASTWARD. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT IS NOT TERRIBLY FAVORABLE FOR NEW
DEVELOPMENT OR EVEN MAINTENANCE OF OLD DEVELOPMENT DUE IN PART TO
ABUNDANT CLOUD SHIELD NOW OVERHEAD SO AM THINKING THAT THERE WILL
BE ONLY MINIMAL COVERAGE OF SOME SHOWERS/ISOLD TSRA DURING THE
MID/LATE MORNING...IF EVEN THAT MUCH. SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT
RANGE...LIKELY INCREASING TO THE 25-30 KT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD COVER MAY END UP TEMPERING GUSTS.
A COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY AND SHOULD BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES...BUT THE FRONT
WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST. RFD REMAINS THE WILDCARD AS
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP JUST TO ITS EAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL
CONTINUE WITH TEMPO TS MENTION BECAUSE THERE IS NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT
TO SAY RFD WILL BE WEST OF THE DEVELOPING STORMS. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL MOVE EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE BEST WINDOW
FOR THE CHICAGO AREA TERMINALS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...AND SLIGHTLY LATER AT GYY. THERE MAY BE GAPS IN COVERAGE
SO HAVE RETAINED TEMPO TSRA FOR NOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER
AFTER THE MAIN STORMS CLEAR TO THE EAST AND MVFR CIGS WILL TRY TO
DEVELOP. DO NOT HAVE A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW CEILINGS
WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BUT MVFR MAY CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST SEVERAL HOURS AND POSSIBLY THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT SO SITES THAT SEE RAINFALL MAY SEE
AT LEAST MVFR VSBY REDUCTION LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT MONDAY MORNING FAVORING A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH IN WINDS BEING 170 THROUGH 18Z-20Z...MEDIUM IN GUST
MAGNITUDE.
* MEDIUM OF TSRA OCCURRING. MEDIUM-HIGH IN TIMING WINDOW IF IT
DOES OCCUR.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
MTF/MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE OF PERIODIC TSRA.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
312 AM CDT
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM JAMES BAY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA. THIS LOW WILL
THEN REACH EASTERN MANITOBA TONIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING AND TURN TO THE SOUTH
WHILE DOING SO. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 25-30 KT
SPEEDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE
INDIANA WATERS MAY SEE WINDS FALL BELOW CRITERIA A LITTLE EARLIER
THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WILL CROSS THE
LAKE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BRINGING A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AS
WELL AS A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST. FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE ACROSS AT
LEAST NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND
MAY SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AGAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
TUESDAY AS A PORTION OF THE LOW TO THE WEST LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO. A FRONT STRETCHING FROM THIS WEAKER LOW TO A BETTER
ORGANIZED LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY STALL ACROSS THE LAKE
INTO WEDNESDAY LEADING TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. NOT TOO
CONFIDENT IN HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES FROM MID WEEK ONWARD BUT THIS
BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN IN THE REGION LEADING TO FLUCTUATIONS IN WINDS.
MDB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
342 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
THE OVERNIGHT MCS HAS LEFT A COOLER AND CLOUDY DAY IN IT`S WAKE
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THROUGHOUT THE REST OF KANSAS SKIES
ARE CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S LOW 80S.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
TONIGHT:
THE CONCERN FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS
WANING...AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. MIXED LAYER CIN IS AROUND 200 J/KG WITH ONLY 500 J/KG CAPE AS
OF 3PM FROM SPC MESO ANALYSIS. THINK THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
DAYTIME CONVECTION AT BAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
DAYTIME RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...LATER
TONIGHT THINGS WILL CHANGE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND WITH PLENTIFUL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
OR MOVE IN FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN TIME
FRAME OF CONCERN WILL BE BETWEEN 10PM- MORNING. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED AND
GUSTY WINDS TO 60 MPH. MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MY MONDAY MORNING AND
AS SKIES CLEAR THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT.
MONDAY - WEDNESDAY:
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WARM AND WINDY. KANSAS WILL SIT
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THE GULF WIDE OPEN. AS A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS MONDAY...SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ON
MONDAY THAN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH WINDS APPROACHING THE 30 MPH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...AS FORECAST WINDS ARE JUST SKIRTING THE
CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE REGION...HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100 IN A FEW
PLACES.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE AS THE NEXT
UPPER WAVE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
THE NEXT FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE MAIN UPPER
DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT GETS CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN
FLOW AND HOVERS OVER NORTH DAKOTA/CANADA BORDER. THIS PUSHES THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MORE OF A ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW. BECAUSE OF THIS THE EXTENDED
HAS PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT. RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT OCCUR
ALL THE TIME...BUT EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS DIFFICULT WITH
THE DESCREPANCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME PERIODS
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS
DIURNAL MIXING OVERCOMES MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION. KICT AND KCNU WILL FLIRT WITH HIGH-END MVFR AND LOW-
END VFR CIGS MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY
MID-AFTERNOON.
NEXT CONCERN ARISES WITH THREAT OF REPEAT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MESOSCALE MODELS NOT TOO
BULLISH ON REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GIVEN LACK OF
STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISM. THUS...DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE
TREND OF LEAVING THREAT OF STORMS OUT OF FORECAST FOR THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY
SINCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP WEAK CAP IN PLACE. BETTER CHANCES OF
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION AS APPROACHING SHORT WAVE STRENGTHEN MID-UPR
WINDS AND ENHANCES LOW- LEVEL JET.
SECONDARY CONCERN IS FOR MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING OR ADVECTING INTO
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THIS EVENING. RUC/NAM/HRRR ALL BEGIN
TO INCREASE MOIST ADVECTION AT OR BELOW 2000 FEET. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON TIMING AND EXACT HEIGHT OF CLOUD BASE GIVEN MIXED SIGNALS
IN GUIDANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 71 94 74 92 / 10 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 70 94 74 94 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 69 92 73 92 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 69 90 73 90 / 20 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 71 92 74 90 / 20 10 10 10
RUSSELL 66 96 73 97 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 67 96 72 96 / 10 10 10 10
SALINA 69 94 75 95 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 69 93 73 93 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 71 90 73 89 / 50 10 10 10
CHANUTE 70 90 72 89 / 30 10 10 10
IOLA 69 90 72 89 / 30 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 70 89 74 89 / 50 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
330 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
THE OVERNIGHT MCS HAS LEFT A COOLER AND CLOUDY DAY IN IT`S WAKE
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THROUGHOUT THE REST OF KANSAS SKIES
ARE CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S LOW 80S.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
TONIGHT:
THE CONCERN FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS
WANING...AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. MIXED LAYER CIN IS AROUND 200 J/KG WITH ONLY 500 J/KG CAPE AS
OF 3PM FROM SPC MESO ANALYSIS. THINK THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
DAYTIME CONVECTION AT BAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
DAYTIME RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IN OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...LATER
TONIGHT THINGS WILL CHANGE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND WITH PLENTIFUL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
OR MOVE IN FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN TIME
FRAME OF CONCERN WILL BE BETWEEN 10PM- MORNING. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LARGE MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MY
MONDAY MORNING AND AS SKIES CLEAR THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT.
MONDAY - WEDNESDAY:
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WARM AND WINDY. KANSAS WILL SIT
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH THE GULF WIDE OPEN. AS A
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS MONDAY...SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER ON
MONDAY THAN EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WITH WINDS APPROACHING THE 30 MPH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...AS FORECAST WINDS ARE JUST SKIRTING THE
CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE REGION...HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100 IN A FEW
PLACES.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE AS THE NEXT
UPPER WAVE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
THE NEXT FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE MAIN UPPER
DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT GETS CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN
FLOW AND HOVERS OVER NORTH DAKOTA/CANADA BORDER. THIS PUSHES THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MORE OF A ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW. BECAUSE OF THIS THE EXTENDED
HAS PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGHOUT. RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT OCCUR
ALL THE TIME...BUT EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS DIFFICULT WITH
THE DESCREPANCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME PERIODS
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
BILLINGS WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS
DIURNAL MIXING OVERCOMES MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION. KICT AND KCNU WILL FLIRT WITH HIGH-END MVFR AND LOW-
END VFR CIGS MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY
MID-AFTERNOON.
NEXT CONCERN ARISES WITH THREAT OF REPEAT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MESOSCALE MODELS NOT TOO
BULLISH ON REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...GIVEN LACK OF
STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING MECHANISM. THUS...DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE
TREND OF LEAVING THREAT OF STORMS OUT OF FORECAST FOR THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY
SINCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP WEAK CAP IN PLACE. BETTER CHANCES OF
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION AS APPROACHING SHORT WAVE STRENGTHEN MID-UPR
WINDS AND ENHANCES LOW- LEVEL JET.
SECONDARY CONCERN IS FOR MVFR CIGS REDEVELOPING OR ADVECTING INTO
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THIS EVENING. RUC/NAM/HRRR ALL BEGIN
TO INCREASE MOIST ADVECTION AT OR BELOW 2000 FEET. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON TIMING AND EXACT HEIGHT OF CLOUD BASE GIVEN MIXED SIGNALS
IN GUIDANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 71 94 74 92 / 10 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 70 94 74 94 / 10 10 10 10
NEWTON 69 92 73 92 / 10 10 10 10
ELDORADO 69 90 73 90 / 20 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 71 92 74 90 / 20 10 10 10
RUSSELL 66 96 73 97 / 10 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 67 96 72 96 / 10 10 10 10
SALINA 69 94 75 95 / 10 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 69 93 73 93 / 10 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 71 90 73 89 / 50 10 10 10
CHANUTE 70 90 72 89 / 30 10 10 10
IOLA 69 90 72 89 / 30 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 70 89 74 89 / 50 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
630 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
SOME ISOLATED PULSY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO
INCREASE ISOLATED THUNDER AS WELL AS CHANCES OF SPRINKLES FURTHER
NORTHWARD...COVERING MUCH OF THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA. STILL EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS TO DIE DOWN SHORTLY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO DECIDED TO UPDATE THE SKY GRIDS TO
BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND A DIMINISHING TREND INTO THE
EVENING. WENT AHEAD AND LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE
TO MAKE SURE ONGOING GRIDS FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE
WELL REFLECTIVE OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF KENTUCKY WHILE A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...IS SLOWLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE EXIT OF
THE HIGH HAS ALLOWED WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO EAST
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THOUGH
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY HAS GONE PARTLY CLOUDY DUE TO
SOME HEALTHY CU DEVELOPMENT. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP DRAMATICALLY
WITH READINGS NOW IN THE MID 60S FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWA AND LOW 60S TO THE NORTH. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KTS HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY RECENTLY. ALSO RECENTLY...SOME LIGHT RETURNS HAVE
SHOWN UP ON RADAR OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT THE CONTINUING INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK. A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LIFT INTO
CENTRAL CANADA...NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AN INTO THE DAY
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO...ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN...
BUT NOT BEFORE DRAGGING THE REMAINS OF SOME ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
ITS TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER HEIGHTS LOCALLY INTO THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE STORM TRACK IS
SHUNTED EVEN FURTHER NORTH. DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE
WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME SPRINKLES AND A STRAY SHOWER
AROUND THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
BEFORE EVERYTHING CLEARS OUT INCLUDING THE BULK OF THE CU. THIS WILL
SET UP ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING INDUCED RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES...THOUGH LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF VALLEY FOG
LATE TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND DEWPOINTS
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT. FOR MONDAY...THE REMAINS OF THE
500MB TROUGH...SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS...AND A WEAKENING FRONT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY...
MAINLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF BY
EVENING AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT...INTO THE EVENING. MORE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUDS ON MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALL CATEGORY ALONG WITH ANY FOG
CONFINED TO JUST THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS.
ONCE AGAIN STARTED WITH THE BCCONSSHORT FOR T/TD AND WINDS THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE CONTINUING WITH BCCONSALL. DID MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE VALLEY AND RIDGE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT MONDAY NIGHT...DUE TO SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR
POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE KEPT THEM LOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
PATTERN IN PLACE. PERSISTENT MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDE OVER THE RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A PERSISTENT TROUGH MAINTAINS
ITSELF OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THE ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW DOES NOT
TRACK INTO THE UPPER PLAINS UNTIL FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AT THE
END OF THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR AVAILABLE. THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP SOME
AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE OVERALL PATTERN UNTIL THE END
OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE BLOCKING.
THE CONSISTENCY LEAVES MORE TO BE DESIRED WITH THE MODELS. WITH THIS
PATTERN IN PLACE...IT BECOMES DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY RULING OUT POPS
ON ANY DAY EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. ON THE OTHER END...IT IS DIFFICULT
TO JUSTIFY PUTTING IN ANY GOOD CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME
LEVEL MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE NEARLY EVERYDAY IN THE COMING
WEEK. AS SUCH...HAVE TAILORED THIS WITH THE RESULTS OF THE ALL MODEL
BLEND AND REDUCED THEM BELOW GOOD CHANCE OR BELOW 50. FOR TUESDAY
WITH REMNANTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD...SOME SPRINKLES MAY
POP UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HIGH TERRAIN. A FEW DISTURBANCES
PASSING ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM COUPLED WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE
WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY TIME-FRAME BUT MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON EACH
DAY.
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM AS WELL WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL CREEP
TO AND POSSIBLY PAST THE 90 DEGREE MARK. A WARM AND HUMID
UNCOMFORTABLE WEEK LOOKS TO BE IN STORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WX THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FRONT BRUSHES BY.
HAVE ADDED A PREVAILING VCTS FOR THIS FROM LATE MORNING ON AT JKL AND
SJS WHILE LEAVING OUT OF THE OTHER SITES FOR NOW. EXPECT ANY FOG
TONIGHT TO BE CONFINED TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND LEAVE THE TAF SITES
UNBLEMISHED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
350 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF KENTUCKY WHILE A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...IS SLOWLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE EXIT OF
THE HIGH HAS ALLOWED WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO EAST
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THOUGH
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY HAS GONE PARTLY CLOUDY DUE TO
SOME HEALTHY CU DEVELOPMENT. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP DRAMATICALLY
WITH READINGS NOW IN THE MID 60S FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWA AND LOW 60S TO THE NORTH. WINDS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KTS HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY RECENTLY. ALSO RECENTLY...SOME LIGHT RETURNS HAVE
SHOWN UP ON RADAR OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE
SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT THE CONTINUING INFLUENCE OF
RIDGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK. A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LIFT INTO
CENTRAL CANADA...NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AN INTO THE DAY
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO...ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN...
BUT NOT BEFORE DRAGGING THE REMAINS OF SOME ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
ITS TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER HEIGHTS LOCALLY INTO THE DAY MONDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE STORM TRACK IS
SHUNTED EVEN FURTHER NORTH. DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE
WITH A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH PARTICULAR EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SOME SPRINKLES AND A STRAY SHOWER
AROUND THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
BEFORE EVERYTHING CLEARS OUT INCLUDING THE BULK OF THE CU. THIS WILL
SET UP ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING INDUCED RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES...THOUGH LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF VALLEY FOG
LATE TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND DEWPOINTS
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT. FOR MONDAY...THE REMAINS OF THE
500MB TROUGH...SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS...AND A WEAKENING FRONT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY...
MAINLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF BY
EVENING AS RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT...INTO THE EVENING. MORE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUDS ON MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALL CATEGORY ALONG WITH ANY FOG
CONFINED TO JUST THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS.
ONCE AGAIN STARTED WITH THE BCCONSSHORT FOR T/TD AND WINDS THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE CONTINUING WITH BCCONSALL. DID MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE VALLEY AND RIDGE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT MONDAY NIGHT...DUE TO SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR
POPS...ENDED UP MOST SIMILAR TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE KEPT THEM LOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
PATTERN IN PLACE. PERSISTENT MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES RIDE OVER THE RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A PERSISTENT TROUGH MAINTAINS
ITSELF OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THE ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW DOES NOT
TRACK INTO THE UPPER PLAINS UNTIL FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AT THE
END OF THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR AVAILABLE. THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP SOME
AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE OVERALL PATTERN UNTIL THE END
OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE BLOCKING.
THE CONSISTENCY LEAVES MORE TO BE DESIRED WITH THE MODELS. WITH THIS
PATTERN IN PLACE...IT BECOMES DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY RULING OUT POPS
ON ANY DAY EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. ON THE OTHER END...IT IS DIFFICULT
TO JUSTIFY PUTTING IN ANY GOOD CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME
LEVEL MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE NEARLY EVERYDAY IN THE COMING
WEEK. AS SUCH...HAVE TAILORED THIS WITH THE RESULTS OF THE ALL MODEL
BLEND AND REDUCED THEM BELOW GOOD CHANCE OR BELOW 50. FOR TUESDAY
WITH REMNANTS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD...SOME SPRINKLES MAY
POP UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HIGH TERRAIN. A FEW DISTURBANCES
PASSING ALONG THE NORTHERN STREAM COUPLED WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE
WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY TIME-FRAME BUT MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON EACH
DAY.
THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM AS WELL WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL CREEP
TO AND POSSIBLY PAST THE 90 DEGREE MARK. A WARM AND HUMID
UNCOMFORTABLE WEEK LOOKS TO BE IN STORE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE WX THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A FRONT BRUSHES BY.
HAVE ADDED A PREVAILING VCTS FOR THIS FROM LATE MORNING ON AT JKL AND
SJS WHILE LEAVING OUT OF THE OTHER SITES FOR NOW. EXPECT ANY FOG
TONIGHT TO BE CONFINED TO THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND LEAVE THE TAF SITES
UNBLEMISHED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
407 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
A LINE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN ALONG A CONVERGENT STREAMLINE. THIS
CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH A ZONE OF ENHANCED
ABSOLUTE VORTICITY IN THE LATEST RUC OUTPUT. THE CONVERGENCE
STREAMER AND RIBBON OF FORCING IS TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION OF
MIDLEVEL JET STRUCTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE SYNOPTIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE ENHANCED LINE OF CONVERGENCE OR MIDLEVEL
INFLECTION AXIS TO CAST OFF...SHEDDING DUE EASTWARD TONIGHT AS THE
LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO. THE TONIGHT PERIOD THEN
DISTILLS DOWN TO WHAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AXIS TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA. WHAT IS
COMPLICATING THIS SETUP IS THE VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE 6-12 KFT LAYER. COMBINE
THIS STABLE LAYER WITH A VERY DRY NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...SURFACE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF 30 DEGREES...AND THE SUSPICION
IS MUCH OF THE LIFT WILL GO INTO SATURATING THE COLUMN. THE
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE SHOWING A REAL STRUGGLE WITH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. PROBABLY THE BEST THING GOING FOR THE SETUP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RIBBON OF MOISTURE
TO ALIGN WITH THE MEAN FLOW LATE TONIGHT. THIS IS BY NO MEANS AN
ENDORSEMENT...MORE OF A COMMENT ON THE LOW CONFIDENCE/HIGH
UNCERTAINTY. FOR THOSE REASONS...WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM THE
INHERITED POP GRIDS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DECIDE ON THIS BEING A
SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS SHOWER TYPE EVENT. TIME OF YEAR AND CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY REQUIRES A THUNDER MENTION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO SIGNAL
FOR A HIGH AMOUNT OF EXPECTED LIGHTNING. HRRR ALONG WITH 12Z WRF-NMM
MOVED TIMING UP A HAIR...LOOKING AT TIME WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION
MAINLY BETWEEN 3-9Z.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
DEFINED MOISTURE PLUME ATTENDANT TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
EASE SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY MORNING AS SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS STREAM
BY TO THE NORTH. OVERALL TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THESE FEATURES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE WILL REMAIN A WINDOW EARLY IN THE DAY FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ROUGHLY SOUTHEAST OF A
HOWELL TO SANDUSKY LINE. MORE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN
BY AFTERNOON WITHIN A BACKGROUND OF WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL
GREATLY LIMIT THE PROSPECTS FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. A WELL MIXED AND DRYING 800-925 MB LAYER
WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RESPOND
ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS OF LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AREAWIDE.
RENEWED STRENGTHENING OF THE DOWNSTREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SEND
THE EXISTING HIGHER THETA-E AIR MASS BACK NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
SE MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE ADVANCING WARM FRONTAL
SLOPE WILL SUPPORT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH
THE MOISTURE ADVECTION. THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. IN ADDITION...POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL MAINTENANCE AND
DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WILL REQUIRE ATTENTION...12Z MODEL SUITE PROVIDING A MIXED
SIGNAL ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO ENTER A PORTION OF THE
AREA.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS OF ANY MCS/MCV REMNANTS PLAY A DEFINITIVE
ROLE IN DEFINING THE PROSPECTS FOR CONVECTION ON INTO TUESDAY. A
MORE SIZABLE CLOUD/RAIN LADEN COMPLEX ARRIVING EARLY IN THE DAY
COULD DAMPEN/DELAY THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. CONVERSELY...A
LATE DAY ARRIVAL COULD BE OPPORTUNE FOR ANCHORING A MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE EPISODE. THE COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOME
INCREASE IN THE UPPER HEIGHT FIELD WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS OF UPPER
80S...ABSENT OF A DISRUPTION OF THE HEATING CYCLE BY EARLY DAY
ACTIVITY.
EXTENDED FORECAST WILL LARGELY HINGE ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
MONDAY/TUESDAY CONVECTION. MODELS STILL ADVERTISING A BOUNDARY
SETTING UP OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS. WITH THAT...THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUAL
CHANCE FOR RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ALL IN ALL...AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
&&
.MARINE...
A GUSTY SOUTHEAST WIND THROUGH THE EVENING PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH. GUSTS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS GIVEN THE
HIGHER DEGREE OF STABILITY OVER THE LAKES. THIS TROUGH WILL
BRING WITH IT A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A WARM
FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO MID WEEK.
THIS FRONT MAY TRIGGER SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MID WEEK PERIOD. SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 216 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
//DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND A DRY AIRMASS IN THE NEAR SURFACE ATMOSPHERE. OVERALL
WINDSPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS.
THE QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS CENTERED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BUT
MORE SPECIFICALLY PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. THE EVENT AS A WHOLE WILL BE
LIMITED BY THE LACK OF DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR ASCENT. BEST DYNAMICS
WILL RIDGE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA TIED TO BETTER CONVERGENCE
SUPPORT ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET FEATURE. PRECIPITATION
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN IS EXPECTED TO BE DRIVEN
PURELY FROM A MOISTURE TRANSPORT...DEPTH OF SATURATION STANDPOINT.
THE RIBBON OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTIVE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
NOT BE ROBUST...TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA IN ROUGHLY A 3 HOUR WINDOW
BETWEEN 7-10Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE CIG FORECAST FOR TOMORROW
MORNING.
FOR DTW...BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL
BE BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET AFTER 08Z
MONDAY.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 08Z MONDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR/SS
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
358 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER FAR SRN SASKATCHEWAN. SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE LOW IS
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS THRU THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF
FEATURE...SHRA AND TSTMS ARE LINED UP FROM NRN OK TO SRN MN THEN ENE
INTO WI AND UPPER MI THOUGH THUNDER HAS YET TO REACH UPPER MI. IN
RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE PLAINS...LOW-LEVEL JET HAS
INCREASED TO 45KT TO AS HIGH AS 65KT PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. NOSE
OF LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THE SHRA/TSTMS SPREADING
ACROSS WI INTO UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.
RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A SHORTWAVE LIFTING N THRU ERN
MN. AS THIS SUBTLE FEATURE LIFTS N AND WEAKENS AND NRN END OF
LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS AS WELL...SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS SPREADING N INTO
UPPER MI WILL LIKELY WEAKEN OR AT LEAST SHIFT MORE TOWARD WRN UPPER
MI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE LINGERING AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE
FOCUSED. AS MAIN NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE SWINGS NE THIS AFTN...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND SOME TSRA TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG/AHEAD OF OCCLUDED FRONT THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS UPPER MI
THIS AFTN/EVENING. THERE APPEARS TO BE VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SFC BASED CONVECTION TODAY GIVEN STABLE SFC BASED LAYER EVIDENT ON
FCST SOUNDINGS AND LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER LIMITING
DAYTIME HEATING. ABOVE THE STABLE LAYER...MUCAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG IS INDICATED BY THE GFS WITH THE NAM A BIT HIGHER UP TO
500-750J/KG BRUSHING THE FAR S/SE FCST AREA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPEARS
TO BE OVER 30KT...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING
ANY SVR STORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...SINCE STRONG WIND FIELDS ARE PRESENT
TODAY...ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS PRODUCING MDT/HVY RAINFALL COULD VERY WELL
TRANSPORT STRONGER WINDS TO THE SFC. EVEN WITHOUT PCPN...LIMITED
MIXING ON FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAX WIND GUSTS COULD EASILY TOP OUT
AROUND 40MPH TODAY. THE GUSTY WINDS IN THIS MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE AIDED BY RIBBON OF HEALTHY SFC PRES FALLS OF 5-7MB/3HR
LIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. IF MIXING IS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN EXPECTED...WIND ADVY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE REACHED TODAY.
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTN.
WITH PASSAGE OF OCCLUDED FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF IMPRESSIVE DRYING AS
UPPER JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT A QUICK END TO SHRA/TSRA
FROM SW TO NE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
WITH MESSY SMALL SCALE DETAILS IN THE LONG TERM...THE BROAD PATTERN
WILL BE DISCUSSED FIRST. STARTING AT 00Z TUE...THERE WILL BE A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER FAR NRN
ONTARIO AND A SFC RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. BY TUESDAY
EVENING...THE UPPER LOW TO OUR N WILL HAVE MOVED E WHILE THE TROUGH
OVER THE WRN CONUS HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY E. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION...AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN WHILE REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST THU. THE STRONG RIDGE WILL KEEP
THE UPPER TROUGH FROM PROGRESSING E OF THE PLAINS MEANING THAT SFC
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE PLAINS. ANOTHER IMPACT OF THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SFC RIDGING OUT OF CANADA NOSING
TO THE E OF THE CWA INCREASINGLY THROUGH THE WEEK. DUE TO THE
DEPARTING LOW ON MON NIGHT/TUE AND INTRUDING SFC HIGH...A COLD FRONT
WILL TRANSIT THE CWA FROM N TO S ON TUE AND SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY S/SW OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WORK WEEK.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE SPECIFICS ON THE FORECAST IS THAT A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE ALONG OR JUST S OF THE FRONT
ON MON NIGHT/TUE...AND MAY IMPACT PARTS OR ALL OF THE CWA. EXACT
LOCATION/COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS...AS
ALWAYS...UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST. WHILE NOT MUCH CAN
BE SAID AT THIS POINT...DO FAVOR BETTER POPS ALONG THE SRN END OF
THE CWA GIVEN PATTERN RECOGNITION AND THAT MODELS DEPICT THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT BEING OVER THE SRN CWA.
AFTER TUE...WITH THE FRONT STALLED S/SW OF THE CWA AND THE RIDGE
AXIS JUST TO THE W OF THE CWA...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LIKELY TOPPING
THE RIDGE AND RIDING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WI BORDER AND OVER THE WRN CWA
INTO OR THROUGH FRI...WHICH IS WHEN MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW TO PROGRESS WITH THE PATTERN. WITH THE
INTRUDING SFC RIDGE TO THE E...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR THE ERN CWA. IN FACT...ON THU AND FRI MODELS SHOW 1000-700MB RH
VALUES BELOW NEAR OR BELOW 30 PERCENT OVER AT LEAST FAR ERN UPPER MI
WITH LIGHT ELY SFC FLOW. FOR WED INTO FRI...THE FORECAST WILL SHOW A
POP GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE WI BORDER AND W AND THE
LOWEST POPS OVER THE N/NE CWA.
MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AND WILL JUST USE
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE FOR THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
CONTROL MUCH OF THE TAF FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS.
THIS LOW WILL DRAG A OCCLUDED FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...LIKELY BRINGING TWO PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TAF SITES. THE FIRST
BAND IS LOCATED BETWEEN KIWD AND KCMX AND WILL AFFECT KCMX AROUND
19Z AND KSAW AT 20-21Z. THE NEXT BAND...CURRENTLY STRETCHING SOUTH
FROM TWO HARBORS MINNESOTA TO LACROSSE WISCONSIN WILL ARRIVE AN HOUR
OR TWO LATER (AN KIWD AROUND 19Z). INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...SO HAVE
LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS
THEY DEVELOP FURTHER. AHEAD OF THESE SHOWERS...STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND THEN DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME PERIODS OF BORDERLINE
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH THESE SHOWERS (AND HAS ALREADY REACHED
KIWD) UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
AFTER THE FRONT...DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN AND SHOULD SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING. DID CONTINUE A MENTION OF SCATTERED
CLOUDS AT KIWD/KCMX TONIGHT AS A SMALL POCKET OF MOISTURE ROTATES
AROUND THE LOW...BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR. DID CONTINUE
SOME BR AND LOWER VISIBILITY MENTION AT KSAW WHERE THERE MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE RAIN AND SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
LOW PRES WILL LIFT THRU MN INTO NRN ONTARIO TODAY. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO E TO SE WINDS OF 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL RESULT IN
A STABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMP ENVIROMENT...HEALTHY PRES FALLS AND STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OCNL GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTN...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGH OBS PLATFORMS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE
COULD BE 2-3HRS OF FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS WHEN RIBBON OF MAX PRES
FALLS LIFTS ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTN. AS OCCLUDED FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE LAKE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S OR SW TONIGHT AND
DIMINISH. WITH RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER THE LAKE...EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THE FOG WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT ARE EXPECTED MON/MON NIGHT.
THEN...LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BECOME SITUATED BTWN A HUDSON BAY HIGH AND
A LOW PRES TROF SLOWLY ADVANCING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN EASTERLY WINDS LATER TUE THRU THU. WHILE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE UNDER 20KT...THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER WINDS
OVER THE WRN PART OF THE LAKE...PARTICULARY TOWARD THE MN N SHORE
DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. OTHERWISE...WINDS OVERALL
COULD BE STRONGER DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AND LOW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
149 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER FAR SRN SASKATCHEWAN. SHORTWAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM THE LOW IS
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS THRU THE PLAINS. AHEAD OF
FEATURE...SHRA AND TSTMS ARE LINED UP FROM NRN OK TO SRN MN THEN ENE
INTO WI AND UPPER MI THOUGH THUNDER HAS YET TO REACH UPPER MI. IN
RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE PLAINS...LOW-LEVEL JET HAS
INCREASED TO 45KT TO AS HIGH AS 65KT PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. NOSE
OF LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THE SHRA/TSTMS SPREADING
ACROSS WI INTO UPPER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.
RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A SHORTWAVE LIFTING N THRU ERN
MN. AS THIS SUBTLE FEATURE LIFTS N AND WEAKENS AND NRN END OF
LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS AS WELL...SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS SPREADING N INTO
UPPER MI WILL LIKELY WEAKEN OR AT LEAST SHIFT MORE TOWARD WRN UPPER
MI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE LINGERING AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE
FOCUSED. AS MAIN NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE SWINGS NE THIS AFTN...
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND SOME TSRA TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG/AHEAD OF OCCLUDED FRONT THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS UPPER MI
THIS AFTN/EVENING. THERE APPEARS TO BE VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SFC BASED CONVECTION TODAY GIVEN STABLE SFC BASED LAYER EVIDENT ON
FCST SOUNDINGS AND LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER LIMITING
DAYTIME HEATING. ABOVE THE STABLE LAYER...MUCAPE OF A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG IS INDICATED BY THE GFS WITH THE NAM A BIT HIGHER UP TO
500-750J/KG BRUSHING THE FAR S/SE FCST AREA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPEARS
TO BE OVER 30KT...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING
ANY SVR STORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...SINCE STRONG WIND FIELDS ARE PRESENT
TODAY...ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS PRODUCING MDT/HVY RAINFALL COULD VERY WELL
TRANSPORT STRONGER WINDS TO THE SFC. EVEN WITHOUT PCPN...LIMITED
MIXING ON FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAX WIND GUSTS COULD EASILY TOP OUT
AROUND 40MPH TODAY. THE GUSTY WINDS IN THIS MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE AIDED BY RIBBON OF HEALTHY SFC PRES FALLS OF 5-7MB/3HR
LIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. IF MIXING IS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN EXPECTED...WIND ADVY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE REACHED TODAY.
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTN.
WITH PASSAGE OF OCCLUDED FRONT AND ARRIVAL OF IMPRESSIVE DRYING AS
UPPER JET SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT A QUICK END TO SHRA/TSRA
FROM SW TO NE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING
SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
THANKS TO ANOTHER LOW ORGANIZING ACROSS THE N AND CENTRAL PLAINS
THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MN WILL RESIDE ALONG THE
CENTRAL MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER AT 12Z MONDAY. EXPECT THE LOW TO
TRACK EAST ACROSS ONTARIO...CROSSING JAMES BAY MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
BRIEFLY SLIDE IN DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH NO PRECIP ANTICIPATED
ACROSS UPPER MI. A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HUDSON BAY HIGH WILL BUILD
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE
DRY WEATHER WILL NOT CONTINUE. LOW PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL SHIFT INTO MN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FCST MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL WE MOVE INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW AFTER
THAT GETS A BIT MORE JUMBLED. THE 15/00Z GFS IS MUCH DEEPER WITH THE
SYSTEM...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEEKER AND A BIT MOR PROGRESSIVE.
THE CANADIAN TENDS TO FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH
THURSDAY.
AS FOR SPECIFICS...MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY. UNDER A
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND GOOD MIXING ABOVE 800MB...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 80S OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI
/OR APPROX 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL/. CONTINUED TO GO TOWARD THE HIGH END
OF FCST GUIDANCE TEMP WISE. WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE A 90F
VALUE. RH VALUES COULD FALL INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE /DID GO ON
THE LOW SIDE FOR DEW POINTS AND RH/...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE
20-25MPH RANGE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE RAIN TODAY SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO SLIDE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE SLIDES IN FROM THE SW IN OUR WAA PATTERN. EXACT
TIMING/LOCATION IS DIFFICULT. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS OR HIGHER NEAR
THE WI BORDER...WHICH LOOKS TO FOLLOW THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
WELL. OTHERWISE EXPECT SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
CONTROL MUCH OF THE TAF FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS.
THIS LOW WILL DRAG A OCCLUDED FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...LIKELY BRINGING TWO PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TAF SITES. THE FIRST
BAND IS LOCATED BETWEEN KIWD AND KCMX AND WILL AFFECT KCMX AROUND
19Z AND KSAW AT 20-21Z. THE NEXT BAND...CURRENTLY STRETCHING SOUTH
FROM TWO HARBORS MINNESOTA TO LACROSSE WISCONSIN WILL ARRIVE AN HOUR
OR TWO LATER (AN KIWD AROUND 19Z). INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...SO HAVE
LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS
THEY DEVELOP FURTHER. AHEAD OF THESE SHOWERS...STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND THEN DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME PERIODS OF BORDERLINE
VFR/MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH THESE SHOWERS (AND HAS ALREADY REACHED
KIWD) UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
AFTER THE FRONT...DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN AND SHOULD SEE
DECREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING. DID CONTINUE A MENTION OF SCATTERED
CLOUDS AT KIWD/KCMX TONIGHT AS A SMALL POCKET OF MOISTURE ROTATES
AROUND THE LOW...BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR. DID CONTINUE
SOME BR AND LOWER VISIBILITY MENTION AT KSAW WHERE THERE MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE RAIN AND SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS THIS EVENING FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EDT SUN JUN 15 2014
LOW PRES WILL LIFT THRU MN INTO NRN ONTARIO TODAY. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO E TO SE WINDS OF 20-30KT OVER MUCH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE CHILLY LAKE WATERS WILL RESULT IN
A STABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMP ENVIROMENT...HEALTHY PRES FALLS AND STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE STABLE LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OCNL GALE
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS NCNTRL AND ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTN...
ESPECIALLY AT HIGH OBS PLATFORMS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE
COULD BE 2-3HRS OF FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS WHEN RIBBON OF MAX PRES
FALLS LIFTS ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTN. AS OCCLUDED FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE LAKE...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S OR SW TONIGHT AND
DIMINISH. WITH RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER THE LAKE...EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THE FOG WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS MOSTLY UNDER 20KT ARE EXPECTED MON/MON NIGHT.
THEN...LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BECOME SITUATED BTWN A HUDSON BAY HIGH AND
A LOW PRES TROF SLOWLY ADVANCING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN EASTERLY WINDS LATER TUE THRU THU. WHILE WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
BE UNDER 20KT...THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER WINDS
OVER THE WRN PART OF THE LAKE...PARTICULARY TOWARD THE MN N SHORE
DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING. OTHERWISE...WINDS OVERALL
COULD BE STRONGER DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH AND LOW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
553 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2014
...Monitoring for Potential Thunderstorm Development Tonight...
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 545 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
The expectation for thunderstorm development tonight remains rather
murky.
At late afternoon an expansive area of stratus or strato-cumulus
had developed from southeastern Kansas into central Missouri with
light echoes showing up on radar. These clouds and light showers
were developing within a region of modest isentropic upglide and
9250-850 MB theta-e advection.
There appear to be a couple of negative factors to storm
development in the near term. Water vapor and RAP model analysis
suggest drying taking place within the 700-300 MB layer along with
mid level warming. Any substantial synoptic scale trigger appears
to be absent at this time. The 00z upper air sounding may provide
more clues.
Our attention will be focused on the evolution of the low level
jet later this evening into the overnight hours and the
positioning of a 925-850 MB boundary. The positioning and strength
of these features may be key players to convective development
tonight.
While the development of convection and subsequent severe risk
remain conditional there will be the potential for strong to
locally severe storms later tonight if development transpires.
Stay tuned to the latest weather information and possible forecast
updates.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 234 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
Remnants of a thunderstorm complex pushed through the forecast
area from west to east this morning. Some 30 to 45 mph winds
occurred just behind the back edge of precipitation for about 10
to 15 minutes this morning. Cloud cover associated with the
thunderstorm complex was beginning to erode over the area and
temperatures in all but far south central Missouri have rebounded
back into the mid 70s to low 80s.
Forecast focus will be with precipitation redevelopment chances
tonight and with temperatures over the next several days.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
Tricky forecast for tonight. Atmosphere still in recovery mode
from morning MCS remnants and computer models are all over the
place with any redevelopment and placement of precipitation
tonight. Most of the the computer models are showing at least some
redevelopment at some point during the evening or overnight
periods across the area, mainly as the low level jet redevelops
later tonight. Don`t have the confidence to go with likely pops at
this point, but have higher pops along northern sections of the
CWA with main surface boundary stretched out in that vicinity.
Some models are showing some backbuilding of storms late tonight
down further to the southwest and if this materializes, we could
see a flash flooding scenario develop overnight and into Monday
morning, but am not willing to completely buy into this scenario
just yet as some of these solutions did not initialize very well
with this mornings convection.
With any remaining Monday morning convection ending, should see a
dry period begin during the afternoon as the front refocuses as a
warm front well to our north and upper level storm track remains
off to the northwest. Expecting afternoon highs to reach the upper
80s to around 90 with heat index values in the low to mid 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
Similar conditions are expected on Tuesday, but slightly warmer
with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s expected. Upper ridge will
be in place from the Gulf coastal states into the mid Mississippi
valley region and the storm track remaining off to the northwest.
Will start to nudge the ridge to the east on Wednesday a bit as an
upper level wave begins to push out of the Rockies and into the
northern and central high Plains. Could start to see some widely
scattered/scattered convection refire during the afternoon
starting Wednesday. With several weak disturbances and more
flattened ridge by the latter half of the week, thunderstorm
chances will perist into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
Mainly VFR conditions can be expected for pilots flying in and
out of the Missouri Ozarks region this evening through tomorrow.
There is one concern to watch for and keep updated for any future
forecast changes in the TAFs. There is some indication for an area
of covection to develop late tonight after 06z through 12z in the
morning. There are some uncertainties on the scope and timing for
this potential development of convection.
For this TAF update have mainly covered this potential with TEMPO
groups for JLN and SGF followed by a PROB30 group. If the convection
does affect terminals...expect brief MVFR conditions. Light
southerly winds will continue tonight with an uptick in wind speeds
by late Monday morning after 15z with some gusts over 20 knots
possible.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Foster
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Griffin
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1222 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT WRN AR OVER THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS AND EXPECT THE AREA TO REMAIN MOSTLY
RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL
LIFT AS WELL. COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
BY EARLY EVENING...AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR THE
NORTHEAST OK TAF SITES. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP
AS WELL AREAWIDE LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
MCS ACROSS FAR ERN OK/NW AR CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT IS STILL PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LEFT A
WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
NEAR FSM BACK INTO NE OK...AND WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL PLAY A ROLE IN POTENTIAL
REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NE OK IS QUITE WORKED
OVER/RAIN-COOLED AT THE MOMENT...SO REDEVELOPMENT
REMAINS IN QUESTION...AND HRRR HOLDS OFF STORMS
UNTIL AROUND 00Z FOR NE OK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 72 89 75 89 / 20 10 10 10
FSM 72 92 73 90 / 10 10 10 10
MLC 73 88 75 87 / 10 10 10 10
BVO 69 89 74 90 / 40 10 10 10
FYV 68 86 72 85 / 20 10 10 10
BYV 68 87 71 86 / 20 10 10 10
MKO 72 89 73 88 / 20 10 10 10
MIO 69 88 74 88 / 40 10 10 10
F10 72 88 74 88 / 20 10 10 10
HHW 72 89 72 86 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
324 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.DISCUSSION...
AN 18Z AIRCRAFT SOUNDING FROM DALLAS LOVE FIELD OBSERVED A
SUBSTANTIAL CAP IN PLACE OVER NORTH TEXAS...DESPITE TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S WITH DEW POINTS HOVERING AROUND 70 DEGREES.
OBSERVED SURFACE BASED CAPE WAS JUST OVER 1000 J/KG ON THIS RAOB
AND THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WAS AROUND 150 J/KG. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH VERY LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT. LOOPING THROUGH THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SUBTLE WAVES WERE EVIDENT IN THIS STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD...INDICATIVE OF A STABLE LAYER JUST ABOVE THE CLOUD LEVEL
(LCL). TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT...THINK THAT OBSERVATIONAL
EVIDENCE IS POINTING TO THE DALLAS LOVE FIELD SOUNDING BEING
FAIRLY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
OVER MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AN EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGEST NO
SIGNIFICANT MECHANISMS IN THE CWA TO PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT.
AS A RESULT...THINK THAT THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON ARE VERY SMALL.
19Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED CUMULUS
FIELD DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...IN AN AXIS OF GREATER
INSTABILITY PER LOCALLY CALCULATED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AND SPC`S
SFCOA. WHILE THERE WAS LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED IN
THIS CU FIELD AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION...THE CONGESTED AND
LINEAR APPEARANCE OF THE CLOUDS SUGGESTS A LOCAL DEEPENING OF THE
LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE LINE
LOCATED FROM VERNON SOUTH TO JUST EAST OF SWEETWATER. THE 17Z
HRRR MODEL REALLY PICKS UP ON THIS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE AND
INITIATES POCKETS OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS LINE BY 22Z...OR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS PANS OUT...STORMS WILL INITIATE
TO THE WEST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER WINDS ALOFT WOULD TEND TO STEER
THESE STORMS EAST. WINDS ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE FAIRLY
WEAK...SO ANY EASTWARD STORM MOTION WOULD TEND TO BE SLOW...ON THE
ORDER OF 15 MPH OR SO.
EVEN IF STORMS DEVELOP AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS...THERE IS NO
GUARANTEE THAT THEY WILL ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO MOVE EAST INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING. STORM MOTION IS DEPENDENT NOT JUST UPON
STEERING WINDS ALOFT...BUT IS ALSO DEPENDENT UPON THE DIRECTION
THAT NEW UPDRAFTS TEND TO DEVELOP ON. THIS IS REFERRED TO AS
UPDRAFT PROPAGATION...OR SIMPLY PROPAGATION. THE DIRECTION OF NEW
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT IS USUALLY LOCATED ON THE SIDE OF THE STORM
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS POINTING TOWARDS. THAT IS...IF
YOU HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...NEW UPDRAFTS
WILL TEND TO BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN EXISTING STORM. THE LATEST
SPC SFCOA INDICATED 850 MB WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 15
KTS...WHICH SHOULD DIRECT NEW UPDRAFTS...AND THE PROPAGATION OF
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...TO THE SOUTH.
WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS JUST ABOUT EQUAL TO THE
PROJECTED STORM MOTION FROM STEERING WINDS ALONE...STORMS WILL
TEND TO BUILD SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST INSTEAD OF DRIFTING EAST WITH THE
STEERING WINDS ALOFT. BECAUSE OF THIS...THINK THAT THE CHANCES OF
MULTIPLE STORMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING ARE
SMALL. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO MEANDERING OVER
LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM BOWIE TO MINERAL WELLS TO
GOLDTHWAITE THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STORMS WILL KEEP RUNNING
INTO THE CAP IN PLACE OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IF THEY MOVE
EAST...SO THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE IF THEY EVER
MANAGE TO MOVE OFF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR WEST. STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE THE ONLY EXPECTED HAZARDS
FROM STORMS THIS EVENING.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...EXTENDING OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY
TOMORROW MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...LEAVING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WHILE NOT OVERLY
STRONG...THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE THE DOMINANT LARGE SCALE FEATURE
OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE CWA. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
SEND THE GULF COAST SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SUNSET. LEFT LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS POSSIBILITY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE AN UPPER LOW MOVING
FROM NORTHERN MEXICO OUT OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE NAM IS ON BOARD WITH THIS SOLUTION WITH
THE CANADIAN AND GFS HARDLY SHOWING ANY DISTURBANCE ALOFT AT ALL.
CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF/NAM SOLUTION AT THIS TIME AS THIS
HAS BEEN THE CONSISTENT SOLUTION FOR THE PAST 3-4 DAYS WHILE THE
GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE BEEN WAFFLING ON THE EXISTENCE OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CONSISTENCY DOES NOT EQUAL ACCURACY...BUT WHEN
DEALING WITH FORECAST MODELS AND DIFFERENCES IN DATA ASSIMILATION
AND MODEL INITIALIZATION...CONSISTENCY IS OFTEN A GOOD SIGN THAT A
MODEL HAS LOCKED ONTO SOMETHING OTHER MODELS ARE MISSING.
DID NOT RAISE POPS ABOVE 20 PERCENT AT THIS TIME AS IT WOULD BE
NICE TO SEE OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW BEFORE
FINALIZING ON ONE SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER. THE ECMWF HAS AN
OBVIOUS TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY MORNING...SO WE
SHOULD KNOW ONE WAY OR THE OTHER BY THEN HOW THIS IS GOING TO PLAY
OUT. AT ANY RATE...ASSUMING THIS UPPER LOW MOVES OVER NORTH
TEXAS...CONTINUE TO EXPECT ONLY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AS PARAMETERS
ARE POOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. KEPT HIGHS ON THE LOWER
SPECTRUM OF GUIDANCE EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS KICKING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS ACTION MAY SEND A
SQUALL LINE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO SEND A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER SQUALL LINE THAT MAY
MAKE A DIVE TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LEFT SOME LOW POPS IN OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THESE PERIODS AS A RESULT.
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SQUALL LINE
BEHAVIOR UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEXT WEEKEND...MOST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT WE WILL BE
BACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NEXT WEEKEND...SO
KEPT A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS HINTING AT A
WEAK...PROBABLY CONVECTIVELY GENERATED...MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM GETTING STUCK IN THE RIDGE ALOFT AND DRIFTING AROUND OVER
NORTH TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND BRINGS A WEAK
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS BEFORE MOVING
IT NORTHEAST OVER EAST TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN EITHER
OF THESE VERY SMALL SCALE FEATURES 6-7 DAYS OUT IS LOW. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS...SO DECIDED TO STICK WITH THIS DRY FORECAST AND SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME. WILL HOLD OFF ON JUMPING ON SMALL PROBABILITY
ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS UNLESS MODELS CONVERGE AND AGREE ON ONE OF
THEM IN PARTICULAR IN LATER FORECASTS.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1217 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014/
THE TAFS DURING THIS FORECAST WILL SIMILAR TO THE PAST
SEVERAL ISSUANCES. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
WINDS 15-23 KTS DURING THE DAY AND AROUND 13 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SURGE OF NOCTURNAL MVFR STRATUS WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION 07-10Z AND SHOULD LAST UNTIL LATE MORNING. NO
CONVECTION/PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LOCALLY THROUGH THE
FORECAST...BUT THERE COULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER WEST TEXAS AND A SEVERE POTENTIAL
ALONG A LINE FROM KTUL-KSTL-KORD. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 76 92 76 90 76 / 5 0 0 10 10
WACO, TX 75 90 74 89 74 / 5 5 0 10 10
PARIS, TX 74 88 73 88 73 / 5 0 0 5 10
DENTON, TX 75 90 74 90 75 / 5 0 0 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 75 90 76 90 75 / 5 0 0 5 10
DALLAS, TX 75 90 75 90 76 / 5 0 0 10 10
TERRELL, TX 77 92 78 91 76 / 5 0 0 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 75 88 75 88 75 / 5 5 0 20 10
TEMPLE, TX 75 89 75 89 75 / 5 5 0 20 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 73 91 72 90 73 / 10 0 0 5 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
333 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
THE FIRST ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND MID LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION TURNED OUT TO BE A VERY NARROW
LINE OF NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT REMAINED NORTH OF I-94 BETWEEN
1 AND 3 PM. THERE WAS VERY LITTLE CAPE AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE HRRR MODEL STILL INSISTS
THAT THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT WHERE THE WINDS SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST THAT WAS IN
SOUTHWEST WI AT 3 PM. THE RADAR IS SHOWING THAT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
NOW AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE...AS THE QUESTION IS
WHETHER IT WILL HAVE THUNDER OR NOT. THE CAPE IS STILL LOW AND THE
BULK SHEAR IS EVEN LOWER THAN IT WAS WITH THE FIRST ROUND. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIM POPS AND JUST KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.
THE 850MB COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN WI THIS EVENING WITH
DRY MID LEVEL AIR BEHIND IT WILL STALL OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT...THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
WI LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A DRY AND COMFORTABLE NIGHT AND
A PLEASANT MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE
DUE TO A LAKE BREEZE. THE HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S BEGIN TO SNEAK IN.
.MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES LINGERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THIS PERIOD. STILL EXPECT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SLIPPING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
TONIGHT TO MARCH BACK NORTHWARD LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
SCENARIO RESULTS FROM INCREASING SOUTHWEST STEERING WINDS ALOFT OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST DUE TO AMPLIFYING UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE WEEK. ONCE FRONT SETTLES INTO THE SRN WI
REGION...IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ONCE AGAIN DUE TO DOWNSTREAM W-NW
FLOW OVER NORTHEAST CONUS. HENCE SETUP WILL EXIST FOR POTENTIAL
REPEATED BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SRN WI AND ADJOINING
REGIONS. FIRST PERIOD OF CONCERN IS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WHEN SFC AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT SHIFTS NWD. STRONG RETURN OF THETA-
E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE SURGE WILL RESULT IN LARGE ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES OF UP TO 2500 J/KG MON NIGHT WITH 35KTS SHEAR. AS A
RESULT...MAY BE SOME HAIL PRODUCERS. POTENTIAL MCS SHOULD MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST LATER MON NGT INTO EARLY TUE AS LOW TO MID LEVELS WARM
ON TUESDAY. HENCE CAPPING INVERSION AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
FORCING SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT NEED TO KEEP IN
SMALLER CHANCES DUE TO NEAR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MORNING CONVECTION
MAY VERY WELL PUSH FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN IL.
RESURGENCE OF LOW LEVEL JET TUE NIGHT WL LIKELY SHIFT BOUNDARY BACK
INTO SOUTHERN WI ON WEDNESDAY. HENCE WL CONTINUE MID-HIGH LEVEL
CHANCE POPS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID INLAND AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH WITH HEAT
INDEX READINGS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S IN SOME AREAS.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY - FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ON FRONTAL POSITION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. LATEST GFS HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF
ON OCCASIONAL LOCAL CONVECTION SUPPRESSING NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF
WARM FRONT AND SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF SRN WI/NRN IL WED NGT
INTO THU. LATEST GEM STILL CARRIES FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN
WI ON WED BUT ALSO SUPPRESSES IT SWD WITH NIGHTTIME CONVECTION.
HENCE EXPECT WAVERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE IN THE VICINITY INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE IT SHIFTS EWD WITH PASSING WEAK LOW PRESSURE. WILL
FOLLOW MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF FOR THE LATER PERIODS WHICH CARRIES
REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS WI FRI INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT SOLUTION OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
00Z GFS HAD BEEN SHOWING CUT-OFF UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER NRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LESS OF A PUSH FROM APPROACHING NORTHERN
PACIFIC TROF. EVEN DGEX NUDGES UPPER LOW INTO SRN CANADA EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND. HENCE A BETTER SHOT AT MORE PERSISTENT...DRY
CONDITIONS MAY RETURN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING
WEEK.
OTHERWISE...GFS PWAT VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH UNTIL THEN WITH VALUES
OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES WHICH IS APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS AT KGRB. HENCE FLOODING RAINS WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER AFTER TUE NGT...LOW LEVEL JET AXIS IS
AIMED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM WED THROUGH THU WITH WEAKER JET
AXIS PIVOTING TOWARD WI THU NGT AND FRI. HENCE REPEATED BOUTS OF
NIGHT TIME HEAVY RAINFALL NOT LOOKING LIKELY AT THIS POINT DURING
THIS PERIOD...AFTER TUE NIGHT POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
THE POSSIBILITY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
WILL END BY 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO ROLL THROUGH SOUTHEAST MN INTO
WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING. WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS
TONIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AS A MOIST AIRMASS FLOWS OVER
THE COOLER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
&&
.BEACHES...
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND RESULTANT HIGH WAVES WILL RESULT
IN A CONTINUED HIGH SWIM RISK ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES THROUGH
THE EVENING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-060-066-071-072.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/MONDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MRC
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1144 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014
.UPDATE...
SOUTH WINDS ARE STEADILY INCREASING AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION MIXES
OUT. SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN WHAT
MODELS WERE SHOWING IN THE FORECAST YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL BE JUST A
LITTLE LOWER IN THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES DUE TO THE ADDED STABILITY
FROM THE COOL LAKE AND ALSO THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MN WILL
SWING A WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SHORTLY AFTER THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE SHORTWAVE AROUND NOON OR 1 PM JUST
WEST OF MADISON AND TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH AROUND 3 PM. MORE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI FROM AROUND 2 PM WEST OF MADISON THROUGH 6 PM
AROUND MILWAUKEE. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL
OCCUR IN ONE BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TRACKING
STEADILY ACROSS THE MKX AREA FROM NOON TO 5 PM WITH VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT.
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVED BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM THIS MORNING...
INDICATED BY INCREASING LOWER CLOUDS AND A PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN WI IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WE ARE STILL WAITING FOR THE
SURFACE MOISTURE TO ARRIVE. RIGHT NOW...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S...BUT UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ARE JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST
IN EASTERN IA AND WESTERN IL. THEY WILL BE CREEPING INTO SOUTHERN WI
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MAX DEWPOINTS SHOULD END UP IN THE MID 60S
WITH A POCKET OF UPPER 60S POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. THE
CLOUDS ARE HINDERING THE DESTABILIZATION A LITTLE THIS MORNING.
THE RAP IS UNDERDOING THE DEWPOINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON /UPPER 50S/
WHILE THE NAM AND GFS MAY BE OVERDOING THEM A LITTLE /UPPER 60S/. IN
ADDITION...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WHICH IS
ALSO KEEPING THE CAPE DOWN. THEREFORE...WITH LOWER CAPE THAN THE NAM
800-1000 J/KG... HAIL WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN. STILL... THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KNOTS...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING WARRANTS THE SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH THE ONGOING STRONG WINDS...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ADDED WIND GUSTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD MEET
SEVERE CRITERIA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A VERY SLIGHT TORNADO RISK AS
WELL GIVEN THE VEERING OF WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS...ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES...THEN EXPECT A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG A COLD FRONT TO CROSS
FROM WEST TO EAST. CURRENT TIMING LOOKS TO BRING STORMS TO KMSN
AROUND 18Z...KUES AT 19Z AND KMKE AND KENW AROUND 20Z. STORMS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY 00Z MONDAY. SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE PRODUCING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WAVES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME COULD BE SEVERE.
&&
.BEACHES...
HIGH WINDS AND WAVES FAVOR A HIGH SWIM RISK ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN BEACHES TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THIS
EVENING...AS A 90 KNOT 250 MB JET MAX LIFTS ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND TO NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES TODAY IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER THE STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE
WELL NORTH.
WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMES MODERATE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY EVENING.
A 45 KNOT 700 MB SPEED MAX EXTENDS FROM IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY SUNRISE AND INCREASES TO 50 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND 65 KNOTS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHEAST AND WEAKENING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL
JET AT 850 MB IS SIMILAR...WITH 50 KNOTS REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER JUST AFTER SUNRISE WITH 45 TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN BY NOON.
850/700 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MODERATE TO STRONG THIS MORNING
BRINGING 15 DEGREE CELSIUS DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATER THIS MORNING AND REMAINS WARM THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME SLIGHT COOLING WEST. ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE RAISES
TO 1000 JOULES/KG BY NOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE IS A LITTLE LESS FAR
NORTH. HOWEVER THE ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR IS STRONGER NORTH WITH VALUES
AROUND 50 KNOTS. THE SHEAR VALUES DIMINISH SOUTH CENTRAL DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AND OVER THE EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MESO MODELS ARE KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN
BRINGING A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE
MORNING SOUTH CENTRAL AND AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE EAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD
WITH A TORNADO THREAT THIS AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH ZERO TO 1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AROUND 250 AND
ZERO TO 2 KM VALUES AROUND 300 AT FOND DU LAC.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ARE RATHER LOW AND WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE BRISK SOUTH WINDS.
MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WARM AND QUIET DAY SHAPING UP WITH LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL RIDGING. SOUTHERLY FLOW GETS GOING WITH 925
TEMPS INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE POSITIONED WELL WEST WITH A RELATIVE MIN IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PER 850 ISODROSOTHERM PROGS. SE COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORE
AREAS COOLER.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING
EAST. 850 MILLIBAR JET LEANS TOWARDS SRN WI AS MON NGT ROLLS ALONG.
MAIN SURFACE/850 LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE ALL
IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THAT COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL AFFECT SRN WI
LATER MON NGT THRU TUE MRNG. IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
VALUES 7.5-8.5 C/KM. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS AIRMASS
WILL LIKELY BE WORKED OVER A BIT FROM MRNG CONVECTION...SO EVENTUAL
HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON CLEARING OF STORMS AND WHERE ANY BOUNDARIES LAY
OUT. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THE CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS...HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL BE EASY TO REACH WITH ANY CLEARING AT
ALL. CONCERNED THAT WE COULD END UP WITH MORE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON
THAN WHAT THE QPF PROGS ARE INDICATING. SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING 1500-2000
J/KG. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE A STRENGTHENING 850 MILLIBAR JET CORE
INTO THE CWA. THE ECMWF HAS THIS DISPLACED FURTHER SOUTHWEST. WILL
MAINTAIN CHC OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY
LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION/MORNING
CONVECTION. THE NAM AND ECMWF SUGGEST PRIMARY BOUNDARY HUNG UP
ACROSS SRN WI WHILE THE GEM AND GFS SHOW IT FURTHER NORTH. IN FACT
THE GFS HAS 13-14C 700 MILLIBAR TEMPS TUE AFTN SUGGESTING A
POTENTIAL CAP TAKING HOLD. A RELATIVE MIN IN THE CWASP VALUES IS
NOTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
GFS AND ECMWF STILL SHOW LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PLACEMENT THE KEY. GFS HAS IT SKEWED FURTHER NORTH
INTO NRN WI WHILE ECMWF HAS IT SLIPPING SOUTH OF OUR AREA. STRONGER
UPPER SUPPORT A BIT FURTHER WEST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER 500
MILLIBAR ENERGY. NO REASON TO CHANGE THE ALLBLEND POPS GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS 500 MILLIBAR DRAWS CLOSER AND SURFACE
LOW APPROACHES. STILL SOME TIMING AND ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS BUT OVERALL MORE STORM CHANCES THIS PERIOD.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR CLOSED LOW PROGGD TO PLOD ACROSS WI. AGAIN...TIMING
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BUT WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW.
CWASP VALUES STILL AT 60 TO 70.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT TAF SITES INTO
MIDDAY SUNDAY...THEN EXPECT A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS ALONG A COLD FRONT TO CROSS FROM WEST TO EAST. CURRENT
TIMING LOOKS TO BRING STORMS TO KMSN AROUND 16Z...KUES AT 18Z AND
KMKE AND KENW AROUND 20Z. STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OUT OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN BY 01Z MONDAY. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TIL 15Z. THEN ENOUGH MIXING WILL RESULT IN
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS.
MARINE...INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD TO BUILDING WAVES WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME COULD BE
SEVERE.
BEACHES...INCREASING WAVES AND WINDS WILL FAVOR A MODERATE TO HIGH
SWIM RISK ALONG SOME OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-
060-066-071-072.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLAR