Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/14/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
835 AM MST THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING A FEW MAINLY MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS TODAY...ESPECIALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF
TUCSON. A BETTER CHANCE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. SOME DRYING AGAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER THAT...WE MAY SEE ANOTHER
BATCH OF MOISTURE CREEP INTO MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE INTO AT
LEAST THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITABLE WATER FELL BACK TO AROUND .8 OR SO ON THE
MORNING SOUNDING WITH DEWPTS HOLDING ON TO 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
1 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO SLOSH BACK UP FROM THE
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...ADDING JUST ENOUGH FUEL WITH THE AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET A FEW THUNDERSTORMS GOING. LATEST HRRR NOW JOINED BY
OTHER SHORT RANGE RESOLUTIONS FOCUSING ON AN AREA GENERALLY EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE RINCON MOUNTAINS (EAST OF TUCSON) AFTER 21-22Z. NOTHING
MAJOR AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP HITTING THE
GROUND...BUT WE`LL NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS. THAT
WEAK ELEVATED ACTIVITY ACROSS GRAHAM COUNTY YESTERDAY GENERATED A
GUST TO 43MPH AT SAFFORD AIRPORT. WE MADE FIRST AND EARLY SECOND
PERIOD ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS IN MIND.
FRIDAY STILL LOOKS BETTER WITH ADDITIONAL TROUGH INFLUENCE. THE ONLY
THING TO KEEP THAT FROM HAPPENING IS IF THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION QUICKER THAN EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...DIRTY WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO BE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
PW VALUES THIS MORNING WERE IN THE 0.70"-0.85"...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR JUNE. SHOULD SEE A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS ONCE AGAIN
TODAY...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY.
WILL SEE AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF. EUROPEAN MODEL
CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER MODEL AND HAVE LEANED THAT WAY...THUS
HAVEN`T MADE TOO MAY CHANGES TO WHAT DAYSHIFT LAID OUT YESTERDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
MOISTURE PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT STAYING CLOSE
BY TO OUR SOUTH...AS A STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES IN.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MOISTURE REMAINING CLOSE BY..THUS COULD SEE A
FEW STORMS APPROACH THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OF COCHISE COUNTY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS
AROUND NORMAL.
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS HAS LEANED MORE TOWARD EUROPEAN SOLUTION ON
TRACK OF HURRICANE CRISTINA AND THUS IS NOT AS WET ACROSS THE AREA
AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. SO BASED ON THIS I MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES
TO THE POP FIELDS FOR NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER SONORA SHOULD BE ACTIVE
NEXT WEEK AND WE`LL LIKELY SEE INFLUXES OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH.
A HISTORICAL NOTE ON CRISTINA. PER THE LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE
HURRICANE CENTER...CRISTINA IS THE EARLIEST SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE
FORMATION IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC SINCE RELIABLE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1971.
&&
.AVIATION...ENOUGH MOISTURE TODAY FOR A FEW -TSRA MAINLY EAST AND
SOUTH OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 10-14K FT AGL THRU
13/15Z. ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA DEVELOPING AFT 12/19Z...MAINLY NEAR HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF KTUS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFT 13/02Z. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL SURFACE
WINDS MORNING AND EVENING...GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON WLY/NWLY AT
10-18 KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS...WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE
WIND EAST OF KTUS. A BETTER CHANCE OF -TSRA AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
EXPECTED FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON AND
MAINLY NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN. A BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
THE DRY SIDE...WITH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS.
THEREAFTER...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
STRONGER WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT PUSHES THE MOISTURE EAST OF
THE AREA. EXPECT SOME BREEZINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. SOME MOISTURE COULD
SEEP BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...TODAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE 14TH STRAIGHT DAY WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT HIGHS IN TUCSON. THIS WOULD BE THE 75TH SUCH OCCURRENCE (OF 14
CONSECUTIVE 100 DAYS) IN THE TUCSON CLIMATIC HISTORY...WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1894.
HERE IS AN ODD ONE. IN THE 1981-2010 DAILY NORMALS FOR TUCSON...THE
COLDEST NORMAL JUNE HIGH FOR TUCSON IS 97 DEGREES WHICH FALLS ON THE
1ST AND 2ND. WELL TODAY WILL BE THE 100TH STRAIGHT JUNE DAY THAT THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN 97 DEGREES OR WARMER. THE LAST JUNE DATE
THAT HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE BELOW 97 DEGREES WAS ON JUNE 2 2011 WHEN
THE HIGH WAS 96.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/LADER/GLUECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
339 PM PDT Thu Jun 12 2014
.Synopsis...
An upper low in the Pacific NW and NorCal is enhancing the delta
breeze. This will keep temperatures near to slightly below normal
through Friday and could bring coastal stratus into the delta and
southern Sacramento valley during night/morning hours with the
onshore flow. Warmer temperatures are expected over the weekend
and into early next week as flat high pressure moves across the
region. Temperatures expected to stay above normal through the
remainder of the week.
&&
.Discussion...
Travis AFB had been gusting around 25-28 mph for the past 3
hours, but, as models suggested, the onshore flow is beginning to
increase again. Latest observation at Travis AFB has gusts back up
to 32 mph. The HRRR and NAM both showed an increase from about 22z
to 03z where gusts could range from 30-40 mph in the delta region.
Current temperatures for the valley are in the low 80s with delta
region in the 70s, higher terrain in the 60s. Compared to 24 hours
ago, these temps are running a few to several degrees cooler than
yesterday. Redding & Red Bluff are both 9 degrees cooler in
comparison to Wednesday at 3pm. The enhanced "air conditioning"
from the Delta Breeze is from an upper level trough impacting the
Pacific NW & NorCal. This trough will continue onshore flow and keep
our CWA at near to below normal max temps through tomorrow.
The trough will push eastward on Saturday and that means a warmer
weekend while the delta breeze weakens. The valley will leave the
80s behind and see widespread low to mid 90s on Sat & Sun. By
Sunday, the max temps will range from a couple to about 7 degrees
above normal. JBB
&&
.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)
Low confidence in the extended period with poor model agreement
and run-to-run consistency. The GFS builds a ridge across
California for much of next week, bringing warm and dry conditions
with benign weather. The ECMWF and GEM drop a trough from the
Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin. This "inside slider" could
bring another round of breezy north winds and elevated fire
concerns for the middle of next week. We`ll continue to monitor
the model trends before gaining confidence in either solution.
Dang
&&
.Aviation...
Mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours. Areas of MVFR/IFR marine
stratus may again extend through the Delta into the southern
Sacramento Valley late tonight into early Friday morning.
Generally south to west winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt will
continue across the Valley through this evening. Near the Delta
and over higher elevations, southwest wind gusts up to 35 kt
possible.
Dang
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
wind advisory until 8 pm pdt this evening carquinez strait and
delta.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
320 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED SLIGHT COOLING
TREND THROUGH FRIDAY. A SUBTLE WARMING TREND WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO THE THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUED TO DIG SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CA THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO THE
SIERRA CREST...INDIAN WELLS VALLEY...AND THE MOJAVE AREA. WIND
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AT MOJAVE...WITH BOTH
THE HRRR AND NAMDNG INDICATING WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 06Z
HOUR. ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTED TO HIT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...IT
IS SUCH A SMALL AREA THAT WE DECIDED TO SEND OUT THE MESSAGE VIA
SOCIAL MEDIA OUTLETS. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH WITH
REGARDS TO THE GUSTY WINDS.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM DOES INDICATE THAT MU CAPE WILL INCREASE
TO 600-700 J/KG ACROSS THE SIERRA CREST IN FRESNO AND TULARE
COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...LI VALUES FALL TO -3.5...ADDING A BIT MORE
CONFIDENCE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING.
AFTER A QUICK CHAT WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICE IN LAS VEGAS...THEY
DID MENTION THAT THE STRONG WINDS MAY SHEER OFF ANY TOWERING
CU...INHIBITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE SIERRA CREST.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RANGED FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S IN
THE VALLEY...BETWEEN 2 AND 8 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF
JUNE.
OTHERWISE...COOLING WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW...WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING AN ADDITIONAL FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO SOUTHERN
CA. THE NAM DOES SHOW ANOTHER AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF GUSTY WEST
WINDS THROUGH THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY AND MOJAVE AREA. IN
FACT...THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THAT WINDS WILL ACTUALLY BE A BIT
STRONGER TOMORROW AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY FOR A POSSIBLE WIND
ADVISORY. AGAIN...THESE WINDS DO LOOK TO BE IN A VERY CONFINED AREA.
SUBTLE WARMING IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS 500 DM HEIGHTS INCREASE WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING BETWEEN 1 AND 3 DEGREES C BETWEEN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC...RESULTING IN THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY AND KERN DESERT BELOW THE PASSES
AND CANYONS THROUGH 09Z FRIDAY AND AGAIN AFTER 19Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY JUNE 12 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN KERN
COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG
&&
.CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR
KFAT 06-12 107:1985 66:1998 73:1985 47:1952
KFAT 06-13 107:1949 69:1922 71:1985 47:1907
KFAT 06-14 108:1966 65:1962 72:2007 42:1907
KBFL 06-12 110:1979 63:1998 75:1979 38:1907
KBFL 06-13 106:1940 75:1907 76:1975 41:1907
KBFL 06-14 111:1961 70:1962 78:1975 43:1907
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...SANGER
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
601 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
ON SATELLITE...APPEARS THAT CONVECTION IS SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST FOR
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...FOR SW COLORADO
EAST OF MANCOS AND OVER THE SWRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. RAP MODEL
SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
FOR THE ERN UINTA MOUNTAINS...APPROACHING FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN
EVENING SHOWER OR STORM. STRONGER CONVECTION IS NORTH OF THE
BORDER IN WYOMING...BUT THIS COULD BACK BUILD INTO DAGGETT COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
INCREASED PREFRONTAL SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AROUND
9PM IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. ELEVATED WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN UTAH AND NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO SATURDAY MORNING THEN WILL INCREASE IN POTENTIAL AS
DAYTIME HEATING BECOMES A FACTOR IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...EXPECT SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. AREAS OF SOUTHERN
UTAH AND COLORADO WILL STAY DRY AND QUITE WINDY ON SATURDAY. SEE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES.
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HINDER MAX TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND. GENERAL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND TURNING
SOUTHWEST MONDAY. THE MIDRANGE MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER IN A
SOLUTION THAT STRENGTHENS A TROUGH OVER THE PACNW MONDAY AND DIGS
SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION TUE. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TUE AS THE TROUGH
DRAWS NEARER. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER AND BREEZY TO
WINDY.
THE MODELS BRING A CLOSED 500 MB LOW INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
TUE NIGHT AND WED AND PUSH A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WED MORNING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. 700 MB
TEMPS NEAR ZERO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTS WED NGT SO
THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL WED NGT AND THU MORNING ABOVE
ABOUT 12K FEET. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THOSE AREAS MAY RESULT
IN ACCUMULATION SMALL HAIL AT HIGH ELEVATIONS AS WELL.
FRIDAY WILL SEE DRIER CONDITIONS AND POST FRONTAL/POST TROUGH NW
FLOW ALOFT...WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
MECHANICAL CHOP WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE TURBULENCE CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST
UTAH WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS UTAH AND WRN COLORADO...REACHING
THE SRN UTAH AND COLORADO BORDER BY 00Z SATURDAY EVENING. ISOLATED
-SHRA OR -TSRA IS EXPECTED OVER NE UTAH THIS EVENING...SPREADING
INTO NW AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO ON SATURDAY.
SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25-35KTS THIS EVENING WILL TAPER OFF BETWEEN
03Z-06Z THIS EVENING...BUT THESE WINDS WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 16Z
SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH VERY LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL KEEP CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS GOING UNTIL
ABOUT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT AND PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AREAS WITHIN THE WARNING INCLUDE FIRE
ZONES 290..292...203 AND 207 BELOW 9500 FEET. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NE UT...AND NW AND CENTRAL CO SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT PUSH THROUGH SOUTHWEST CO UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON.
THUS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND DRY FUELS SHOULD
REDEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SOUTHWEST CO...INCLUDING
FIRE ZONES 290 AND 207 BELOW 9500 FEET. AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MOAB TO DELTA SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH LESS WIND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER LEVELS NOW CONFINED TO THE GREEN RIVER IN NORTHEAST UTAH
AND EXTREME NORTHWEST COLORADO. EVEN THOUGH LEVELS ARE DROPPING
ON AREA WATERWAYS...FLOWS WILL REMAIN SWIFT FOR AT LEAST A FEW
MORE WEEKS AS HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK CONTINUES TO MELT OFF.
PAY ATTENTION TO RIVER...CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS AND WATCH FOR
DEBRIS BUILDUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF YOU PLAN ON BOATING DOWN OR
RECREATING NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ203-207-290-
292.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ207-290.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...PF
FIRE WEATHER...CC
HYDROLOGY...JAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
331 PM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT. STILL MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
THE REST OF THIS AFTN AND EVENING. NOT THUNDERSTORMS YET...BUT
HRRR APPEARS THE REGION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...SLGT CHC POPS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING IN MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN ZONE
36. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...TOO COOL AND STABLE FOR MUCH
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTN. MARGINAL FOR THE
URBAN CORRIDOR AS WELL BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE DENVER CYCLONE MAY
TIP THE SCALES TOWARDS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
DENVER. NOTHING AT THIS TIME...BUT 73/50 TEMP/DEWPOINT COULD
YIELD CAPES TOWARDS 1000 J/KG. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP IN WILL BE
ALONG THE CONVERGENCE LINE PRESENTLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
DENVER. HRRR STILL SHOWING A STRONG TSTM OR TWO OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE...SO WL GO WITH CHC POPS THERE WITH SLGT CHC ELSEWHERE. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER COLORADO ON FRIDAY WITH A
DRY AND SUBSIDENT AMS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15+ DEGREES.
LOWER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN ZONES 48>51.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOT CONTINUES FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.
AIRMASS FAIRLY WARM AND DRY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. MODELS STILL INDICATING A DRY
LINE EAST OF A STERLING TO AKRON LINE EARLY IN THE EVENING PUSHING
INTO KANSAS AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLES BY MIDNIGHT. LATEST NAM
STILL INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
FAR NORTHEAST CORNER...WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW POPS THERE.
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FAIRLY
MILD NIGHT EXPECTED MOST AREAS WITH THE BREEZY CONDITIONS ONGOING.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING INTO COLORADO WITH THE
CLOSED LOW OVER MONTANA. COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LATEST NAM AND
ECMWF INDICATING THE FRONT REACHING THE DENVER AREA AROUND 15Z
WHILE THE GFS INDICATING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT DENVER SOMETIME
AFTER 18Z. THIS TIMING WILL CERTAINLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON MAX
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. LATEST NAM AND ECMWF
GUIDANCE MUCH COOLER FOR DENVER WITH A HIGH OF ONLY 74 FROM THE
NAM AND 75 FROM THE ECMWF WHILE THE GUIDANCE MUCH WARMER WITH A
HIGH 88. BELIEVE THE GFS TO BE TOO SLOW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM SOLUTION. MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. BRIEF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STORMS ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. SHEAR FAIRLY WEAK...SO NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS. MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING INTO
EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE EVENING THEN INTO KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE STORM CHANCES MOVE NORTHEAST WITH THE TROUGH
DURING THE EVENING THEN EXITING THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES TO
THEN CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME RETURN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS FOR A BIT OF
STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPMENT. CHANCES LOW FOR NOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
GRIDS. ON SUNDAY...STILL SOME MODEL SIMILARITIES WITH A COOL AND
MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN THEIR DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH THE
DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE GFS
BEGINS A PROGRESSIVE SHIFT OF THE TROUGH EASTWARD WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GEM KEEP THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. GFS
CONTINUES WITH THE PROGRESSIVE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN BUILDS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN MOVING IT INTO TOWARD COLORADO
BY THURSDAY. THESE OBVIOUS DIFFERENCES TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF
THE SOLUTIONS REMAINS LOW...SO WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST AND KEEP LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH A
COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
DENVER CYCLONE STILL IN PLACE BUT WITH A CONVERGENCE LINE FM JUST
WEST OF DIA TO CENTENNIAL. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP IT WILL LIKELY BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THIS LINE. LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME SO VCTS
SHOULD SUFFICE. BKN CIGS 030-050 MAY LINGER AT KDEN AND KBJC
THROUGH THIS AFTN...BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS A
DRIER AMS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z WITH
SSWLY WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
SLGT CHC OF TSTMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT FLOODING
RAINFALL NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ON THE PLAINS. BRIEF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT
ON STREAMS AND RIVERS. TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER...LIMITING THE
SNOW MELT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...D-L
AVIATION...COOPER
HYDROLOGY...COOPER/D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1121 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND STRATUS HAS
STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ALONG/NORTH
OF THE RATON RIDGE. DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES IN ALOFT THOUGH THERE DOES APPEAR
TO BE A SUBTLE FEATURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BACK ACROSS WESTERN
NV THAT WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRANSLATES THROUGH THE RIDGE ACROSS CO
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. FORCING LOOKS PRETTY WEAK WITH
THIS FEATURE WHICH SHOWS UP BEST IN THE PRESSURE FIELD ON THE 1.5
POTENTIAL VORTICITY SURFACE. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL POST FRONTAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PINNED UP IN SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WITH EVEN SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS SUCH AS
THE UPPER ARKANSAS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY SEEING SOME INCREASE IN DEW
POINTS TODAY. CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW MUCH THIS MOISTURE MIXES OUT IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THE AFFECT THIS HAS ON CAPE VALUES. NAM12 KEEPS
SFC DEWS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS IN THE 40S WITH POCKETS OF
MID TO UPPER 40S IN SOME PLACES. GFS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR...WHILE SOME
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS LIKE RAP13 AND HRRR DROP DEW POINTS BACK INTO
THE LOWER 40S WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S AND EVEN TEENS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY. NAM12 CAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT
CERTAINLY THINK THAT UP TO 1000 J/KG IS DOABLE AS RAP SUGGESTS. 0-6
KM SHEARS WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 40 KTS...WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THE INSTABILITY BE
REALIZED. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AS THEY DROP TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS WHERE A HEALTHY CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS WITH
ANY STORMS TODAY IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS TODAY. OF
COURSE WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS IMPACT THE BURN SCARS. THREAT TODAY LOOKS HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAY...BUT GIVEN THE HIT OR MISS NATURE OF STORMS IN HIGH
RES MODELS...THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH READINGS SIMILAR TO A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER OUT WEST.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME STRATUS ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR. -KT
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE
4 CORNERS REGION STARTING FRIDAY...WITH WARM AND DRY AIR ADVECTING
INTO WESTERN CO. MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT ON AVAILABLE LLVL
MOISTURE STREAMING UP INTO SOUTHERN CO THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE.
THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY THE ADVANCING DRY
AIR...SO IT LOOKS AS IF THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOME CONVECTION FRI
AFTN AND EVE WILL BE ACROSS THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE. SAT WILL BE
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND DRY DAY...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO E
CO LATE SAT NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KNOCK ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES OFF THE
MAX TEMP FOR THE PLAINS ON SUN...AS WELL AS BRING ISOLATED
CONVECTION BACK TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS AROUND 90
F FOR THE PLAINS AND AROUND 80 F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS BOTH FRI AND
SAT...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE EAST ON SUN. ONE THING TO
NOTE...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
SAT...BUT FOR THE TIME BEING ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT FUELS ARE IN
GREEN UP SO A FIREWX HIGHLIGHT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW FORECAST FOR THE STATE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH JUST ISOLATED MT CONVECTION
EXPECTED. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
TUE...WHICH SHOULD FORCE ANOTHER COLD FRONT DOWN INTO E CO FOR WED.
LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 F ONCE AGAIN FOR THE PLAINS BOTH MON
AND TUE...THEN DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR WED. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
CONDITIONS AT KCOS ARE EXPECTED TO GO FROM MVFR TO VFR BETWEEN
18Z AND 19Z...AND THEN GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME
TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. KPUB IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. KALS WILL
ALSO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SOME TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
955 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
LATEST RUC AND HRRR RUNS APPEAR TO KEEP ANY DEVELOPING STORMS OVER
THE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTH OF DENVER OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. WL GO
WITH ISOLD TSTMS FOR THE DENVER AREA WITH HIGHER COVERAGE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST OF DENVER. GOOD SELY WINDS AT KDEN SO SHOULD SEE
DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOP. BEST CHC OF ISOLD STG/SVR STORMS WL BE
WITH THIS BOUNDARY...AS IT DEVELOPS SOUTH AND EAST OF DENVER.
PLENTY OF BKN-OVC CEILINGS THIS MORNING WHICH WL LIKELY INHIBIT
HEATING IF IT CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN AND LESSEN THEN STRENGTH
OF ANY DEVELOPING STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
LATEST WIND PROFILER SHOWS ABOUT 4000 FEET OF UPSLOPE...ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A STRATUS DECK AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TIL
AROUND MID MORNING. THEN LOSS OF UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL LIKELY
ELIMINATE ANY SHOWERS AND DAYTIME HEATING GRADUALLY BURNING/
LIFTING THE STRATUS DECK. UNTIL THEN...ALSO EXPECT SOME FOG IN THE
FOOTHILLS WHERE CLOUD DECK INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN.
WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION...THE AIRMASS IS QUITE STABLE ON THE
PLAINS BUT MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM ENOUGH TO BREAK
CAP...ESPECIALLY ON THE INTERFACE BETWEEN BETTER MOISTURE AND
HEATING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND PARK
COUNTY. ON THE PLAINS...WE DO EXPECT A DENVER CYCLONE TO DEVELOP
WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL HELP SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IN/NEAR THE DENVER METRO AREA. IF TEMPS REACH THE
74-76 DEGREE RANGE...THEN WE SHOULD HAVE A FAIR CHANCE OF BREAKING
THE CAP MAINLY WITH THE BENEFIT OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. CAPES
WITH T/TD OF 76F/47F ARE NEAR 1200-1500 J/KG AND ENOUGH SHEAR TO
BRING POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. LCLS ARE LOW ENOUGH
AND LOW LEVEL VORTICITY ALONG THE DENVER CYCLONE COULD ALSO LEAD
TO A COUPLE LANDSPOUT TORNADOES...BUT...ONLY IF WE BREAK THE CAP.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ADVERTISED TO REACH THE HIGH COUNTRY
THIS EVENING SO CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING
THERE TIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE GRADUAL CLEARING
LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE
SOME STRATUS MAY REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
EXPECT MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE STATE PUSHES EAST WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. A DRY LINE IS PROGGED TO SET UP ALONG A DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH INCREASING DRY SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS TO THE WEST AND MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE
EAST. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN AS WELL AS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. THE DRIER AIR TO THE
WEST COULD CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH
PARK...HOWEVER FUELS ARE STILL GREEN AT THIS POINT. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE OFF THE DRY LINE IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10
TO 15 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH LESS OF A WARM UP IN
THE MOUNTAINS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
BREEZY WINDS KEEPING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MODERATED ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE STATE SATURDAY
BRINGING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND WETTER DAY. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL
AS THE PLAINS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I70.
MODELS UNFORTUNATELY ALREADY START DISAGREEING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A SLOWER SOLUTION. THIS WOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE NAM
BEING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO...HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WITH
THIS...DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. PAST
THIS...MODEL SPREAD GROWS BIGGER WITH THE ECMWF DRASTICALLY
CHANGING FROM ITS LAST RUN AND NOW KEEPS UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
UPPER GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE WEEK....TRENDING TOWARD THE GEM
MODEL SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE GFS KEEPS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN...SHOVING THE TROUGH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND
RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THIS LOW CONFIDENCE. KEPT THE PREVIOUS
LIMITED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN A COOLING TREND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 941 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
SELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KDEN THIS MORNING WITH A DENVER
CYCLONE DEVELOPING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY THIS AFTN...BUT
STILL SOME ILS RESTRICTIONS WITH CIGS AROUND 5K FT WITH ANY
SHOWERS OR TSTMS. WL GO WITH VCTS IN THE TAFS THIS AFTN VS TEMPO
GROUP. THE BEST CHC OF STORMS WL LIKELY OCCUR TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF KDEN AND KAPA WHERE THIS POTENTIAL LINE OF CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
SCATTERED STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN/NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS INCH OF RAIN
IN 30 MINUTES. STORM MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 KTS TO THE
EAST WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RAINFALL TOTALS AND RUNOFF...WITH ONLY
POTENTIAL TROUBLE IF A HIGHER INTENSITY STORM OCCURS OVER A BURN
SCAR. STREAMFLOWS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO SNOWMELT BUT BULK OF SNOWMELT HAS PASSED SO NO
ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...COOPER
HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
420 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND STRATUS HAS
STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ALONG/NORTH
OF THE RATON RIDGE. DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY...UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES IN ALOFT THOUGH THERE DOES APPEAR
TO BE A SUBTLE FEATURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BACK ACROSS WESTERN
NV THAT WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRANSLATES THROUGH THE RIDGE ACROSS CO
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. FORCING LOOKS PRETTY WEAK WITH
THIS FEATURE WHICH SHOWS UP BEST IN THE PRESSURE FIELD ON THE 1.5
POTENTIAL VORTICITY SURFACE. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL POST FRONTAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PINNED UP IN SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...WITH EVEN SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS SUCH AS
THE UPPER ARKANSAS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY SEEING SOME INCREASE IN DEW
POINTS TODAY. CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW MUCH THIS MOISTURE MIXES OUT IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THE AFFECT THIS HAS ON CAPE VALUES. NAM12 KEEPS
SFC DEWS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS IN THE 40S WITH POCKETS OF
MID TO UPPER 40S IN SOME PLACES. GFS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR...WHILE SOME
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS LIKE RAP13 AND HRRR DROP DEW POINTS BACK INTO
THE LOWER 40S WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 20S AND EVEN TEENS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY. NAM12 CAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT
CERTAINLY THINK THAT UP TO 1000 J/KG IS DOABLE AS RAP SUGGESTS. 0-6
KM SHEARS WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 40 KTS...WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THE INSTABILITY BE
REALIZED. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AS THEY DROP TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS WHERE A HEALTHY CAP WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS WITH
ANY STORMS TODAY IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS TODAY. OF
COURSE WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS IMPACT THE BURN SCARS. THREAT TODAY LOOKS HIGHER
THAN YESTERDAY...BUT GIVEN THE HIT OR MISS NATURE OF STORMS IN HIGH
RES MODELS...THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH READINGS SIMILAR TO A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER OUT WEST.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING DURING THE EVENING. COULD SEE
SOME STRATUS ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR. -KT
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE
4 CORNERS REGION STARTING FRIDAY...WITH WARM AND DRY AIR ADVECTING
INTO WESTERN CO. MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT ON AVAILABLE LLVL
MOISTURE STREAMING UP INTO SOUTHERN CO THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE.
THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY THE ADVANCING DRY
AIR...SO IT LOOKS AS IF THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOME CONVECTION FRI
AFTN AND EVE WILL BE ACROSS THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE. SAT WILL BE
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND DRY DAY...BUT AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO E
CO LATE SAT NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KNOCK ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES OFF THE
MAX TEMP FOR THE PLAINS ON SUN...AS WELL AS BRING ISOLATED
CONVECTION BACK TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS AROUND 90
F FOR THE PLAINS AND AROUND 80 F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS BOTH FRI AND
SAT...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THE EAST ON SUN. ONE THING TO
NOTE...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
SAT...BUT FOR THE TIME BEING ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT FUELS ARE IN
GREEN UP SO A FIREWX HIGHLIGHT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW FORECAST FOR THE STATE THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH JUST ISOLATED MT CONVECTION
EXPECTED. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
TUE...WHICH SHOULD FORCE ANOTHER COLD FRONT DOWN INTO E CO FOR WED.
LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 F ONCE AGAIN FOR THE PLAINS BOTH MON
AND TUE...THEN DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR WED. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
MVFR TO VFR STRATUS WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...AFFECTING KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH MID
MORNING. POCKETS OF IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS. STRATUS WILL BURN OF BY
LATE MORNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON. ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER AND
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS...PRODUCING MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL...ALONG WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH. AS STORMS DRIFT OFF INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...THEY SHOULD
DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO COOLER MORE STABLE AIR. THUS...KCOS AND
KPUB COULD COULD SEE A DWINDLING SHOWER IF ONE SHOULD MOVE OVER THE
TERMINALS. KCOS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED AND WILL
MAINTAIN VCTS FOR THAT SITE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
TODAY AS WELL...AND WILL CARRY A VCTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
DRIER AIR SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM THREATS TO BRIEF RAINFALL AND
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KTS. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
958 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT STALLS OVER OR NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
WARM FRONT STILL STRUGGLING TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS IT IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED ACROSS KPVC TO KMMK PER WIND AND DEWPOINTS OBSERVATIONS.
THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT IS POOLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WITH MUCH OF THE REGION
DRY SLOTTED AT 700MB...ANTICIPATE DRIZZLE AND FOG TO CONTINUE.
THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS MANY SITES BOUNCE
TO A QUARTER OF A MILE.
OTHERWISE MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. LEFTOVER
CONVECTION DEBRIS OUT WEST FROM SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS POTENTIAL
STARTED CENTRAL AND WESTERN REGIONS IN DRIZZLE AND THEN GRADUALLY
INCREASED THE POP POTENTIAL AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVES EASTWARD.
BELIEVE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE WORKED OVER ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY
STRONG/CONVECTION OVER THE REGION...BUT SHOWALTERS FROM THE RUC DO
INDICATE THAT LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST REMAIN BELOW 0 AND
CAPE VALUES ARE STILL MARGINAL TO MAINTAIN ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE COOL FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY. THE
FRONT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE MA COAST BY 00Z. THE GFS IS SLOWER
AND IS AN OUTLIER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS THE MODELS AGREE ON THE
FRONT SLOWING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
WOULD PLACE THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MA...EASTERN CT AND RHODE ISLAND. CAPES ARE PROJECTED TO
APPROACH 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 KTS. OVERALL...
NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WITH PRECIP OVER AREAS
/RHODE ISLAND/ THAT HAD FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS TODAY AND THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SLOWING DOWN /TRAINING ECHOES/.
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST...ALTHOUGH EASTERN MASS MAY
NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW
SEASONABLE LEVELS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN USA.
RIDGE THEN WEAKENS TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC AND A SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MERGE OVER QUEBEC
MIDWEEK AND CARVE A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN COOLING LATE
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS.
THE DAILIES...
SATURDAY NIGHT... UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL MOVE EAST OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE. MOISTURE FIELDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DIMINISH...SO
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES. NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SUFFICIENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO KEEP THE AIR STIRRED. EXCEPTION MAY BE THE MORE
SHELTERED VALLEYS IN WESTERN MASS/CHESHIRE CO NH. DEWPOINTS DIMINISH
FROM THE DAYTIME VALUES WITH MOST PLACES IN THE 50S. EXPECT MIN
SURFACE TEMPS TO BE IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
SUNDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION. SHOULD BE A
DRY PERIOD. WITH THE COLD POOL MOVING OFF AND TEMPS ALOFT
WARMING...EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN OUR HIGH TEMPS. TEMPS AT 850 MB
WILL BE 9-11C SUNDAY AND 13-15C MONDAY. MAX SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD MID
70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND IN THE 80S MONDAY. QUESTION FOR EACH DAY
WILL BE THE STRENGTH/WEAKNESS OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING
CHANCE OF SEA BREEZES EACH DAY. TODAY/S DATA SHOWS MORE OF A
LINGERING GRADIENT FOR NW WINDS SUNDAY WHICH WOULD DIMINISH THE SEA
BREEZE CHANCE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. WITH THE HIGH MOVING
OFFSHORE MONDAY AND AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW...MORE OF A CHANCE
THAT SEABREEZES WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FACING
SHORELINES THAT DAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT WILL ALIGN WITH THE FLATTENING
UPPER FLOW AND SHOULD STALL EITHER OVER US OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
EXPECTING CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
A CHANCE OF THUNDER. PRECIP WATER WILL INCREASE TO 1.50-1.75
INCHES...SO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY-FRIDAY... WITH FLATTENING UPPER FLOW...MORE WEST-
EAST...THE FRONT SHOULD REMAINS IN OR NEAR NEW ENGLAND FOR A DAY OR
TWO LATE IN THE WEEK. QUESTION WILL THEN BE THE EFFECTS OF ANY
SHORTWAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS THE DEEPENING OF THE
QUEBEC UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE SHORTWAVES WOULD
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THEY PASS. THE DEEPENING TROUGH
WOULD PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH AND POSSIBLY AWAY FROM NEW
ENGLAND. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY FROM ONE SHORTWAVE...THEN DRY THURSDAY-FRIDAY DUE
TO LIMITED MOISTURE. STAY TUNED AS THIS SITUATION SORTS ITSELF OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY.
TONIGHT...
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN FOG WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST. TWO OR THREE LINES OF SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT MAINTAINING LOW CONDITIONS...THE FIRST LINE ALREADY IN
WESTERN CT AT THE START OF THE NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR OVER THE INTERIOR BUT IFR/MVFR MAY
LINGER INTO MIDDAY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN FOG...LOW CEILINGS
AND SHRA. TSRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE CAPE/ISLANDS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM S/SW TO NW FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. PATCHY IFR IN FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE ALL COASTS SUNDAY MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN ON SOUTHWEST-FACING COASTS MONDAY.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR...BUT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN DEVELOPING
SHOWERS/TSTMS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY. THE FRONT MAY STALL OVER OR NEAR THE REGION TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCA MAINLY FOR SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER OVER THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LINGERING 5 FOOT
SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT DIMINISHING. SEAS WILL
BE LESS THAN 5 FEET SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-
019>024.
NH...NONE.
RI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR RIZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB
NEAR TERM...DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/99
MARINE...WTB/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
628 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.UPDATE...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE NEAR TERM
CONDITIONS...INCREASING POPS FOR THE PALM BEACH AREA AND
DECREASING POPS FOR THE GULF COAST AND FAR SOUTH. ALSO...IT IS
LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT, SO WENT WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014/
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)
RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED PLENTY OF MID/UPPER
MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH OVER THE STATE JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT
THE SURFACE...THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS ORIENTED FROM EAST TO WEST JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO FILL
(GFS INDICATES A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER NERN GULF BY
SATURDAY NIGHT). THIS WILL KEEP THE WET PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE SHORT- TERM PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS WITH
THE SW MEAN LOW-LEVEL (1000-700 MB) FLOW CONTINUING. ALTHOUGH THE
KINEMATICS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH VERY LITTLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES NOTED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE (ISOLATED) STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS EACH DAY WITH MID-LEVEL OR 500 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -9.5 TO -11 DEG C. ADDITIONALLY...
CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MORE VULNERABLE OR SENSITIVE AREAS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL BE MORE OF A
TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO LIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY IN PLACE
BEGINS TO FILL AND POTENTIALLY CUT OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE NERN
GULF...PLENTY OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND VERY
LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
DAY.
85/AG
LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CONVECTION MAY SLOW DOWN SOME. WHILE
MODELS ARE COMING IN MAINLY DRY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA BY TUESDAY, HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AD THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOONS.
/SI
AVIATION...
MORNING CONVECTION HAS LOCALLY STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE KEEPING
CONVECTION FROM FORMING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA FROM LEFTOVER
CONVECTION ACROSS THE KEYS...WHICH IS FURTHER INHIBITING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. LATEST HRRR STILL DEVELOPS SHRAS/TSRAS ACROSS BROWARD
AND PALM BEACH COUNTY STARTING AROUND 20Z DUE TO BETTER HEATING IN
THESE AREAS. THEREFORE DECIDED TO DELAY VCTS UNTIL AFTER 20Z FOR ALL
OF THE EAST COAST SITES.
MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
LOCAL WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE WATERS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND ANY HEAVY
SHOWERS OR STORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 72 90 74 89 / 80 40 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 90 77 90 / 60 40 20 40
MIAMI 74 91 76 90 / 40 40 20 40
NAPLES 73 88 72 90 / 20 40 20 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
346 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
...RAINY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...
A 500 MB TROUGH CONTINUES TO HANG OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO FRIDAY.
RADAR DETECTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NATURE COAST AND
INTERIOR...WITH SOME CELLS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. 12Z
NAM AND 12Z GFS BOTH DEPICT THESE FOCUS AREAS WELL WITH LOW LEVEL
JETS OF 20-30 KTS AT 700 MB. PREFERRED THE MET IN A BLEND FOR MOST
FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THOUGH POPS
HAVE BEEN CHALLENGING. LOCAL GUIDANCE AND HRRR BOTH SUPPORTED
HIGHER POPS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4...THE TOUGHEST CALL HAS
BEEN IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE MUCH HAS NOT MATERIALIZED SO FAR
TODAY.
EXPECT COVERAGE TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE COMING HOURS AND INTO THE
EVENING...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACTING TO DEVELOP SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO
DWINDLE LATER IN THE EVENING OVER LAND...BUT ACTIVITY OVER THE
WATER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. AS THE
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...OVER THE
WATER DEVELOPS...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PUSH IT ONSHORE.
HAVE KEPT THE COASTAL AREAS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVERNIGHT
THAN INLAND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLE...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL TO LIMIT REACHING INTO THE 90S
AND KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
.MID TERM (FRIDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BEGIN TO FILL
LATE FRIDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE MOVES OUT OF PHASE
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
COOL...AND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING WILL
MARCH INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
SEE A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR WHERE SOME HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE.
WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF AS HEIGHTS BUILD QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. ON SATURDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTHWARD OVER THE STATE...BUT THE MORNING HOURS WILL LIKELY STILL
HAVE ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ONTO THE
COAST. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY EAST OF I-75.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
NO SIGNIFICANT MID OR UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT
OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE NATURE
COAST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH WEAK WIND
FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID- LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON TO MOVE INLAND WITH BEST
RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY EAST OF I-75 EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
A LULL IN CONVECTION FOR MOST TERMINALS...LAL HAS SOME TSRA TO
THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL AT THE MOMENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS...WITH
SOME VARIABLE GUSTS NEAR SHRA/TSRA. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...THOUGH COASTAL TERMINALS /SRQ/TPA/PIE/ COULD SEE SOME
VCSH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CONVECTION AGAIN ON FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAF AS OF THIS
ISSUANCE.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN THE RIDGE SHIFTS NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR THE WIND
FLOW TO SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE ONLY HAZARD EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COASTAL REGIONS AND MOVING INLAND. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
HIGHER SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS... OTHERWISE NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ONLY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY ARE ELEVATED DISPERSION INDEX
VALUES INLAND AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
AND WINDS STAYING BELOW CONCERN CRITERIA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 89 74 88 / 30 60 30 60
FMY 74 91 72 90 / 40 40 30 60
GIF 72 90 72 91 / 40 60 20 60
SRQ 74 88 73 88 / 40 40 30 40
BKV 70 90 68 89 / 30 50 30 60
SPG 77 87 77 87 / 30 50 30 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
MARINE...74/WYNN
MID TERM/LONG TERM...63/JILLSON
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...57/MCMICHAEL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
229 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)
RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED PLENTY OF MID/UPPER
MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH OVER THE STATE JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT
THE SURFACE...THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS ORIENTED FROM EAST TO WEST JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO FILL
(GFS INDICATES A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER NERN GULF BY
SATURDAY NIGHT). THIS WILL KEEP THE WET PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE SHORT- TERM PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS WITH
THE SW MEAN LOW-LEVEL (1000-700 MB) FLOW CONTINUING. ALTHOUGH THE
KINEMATICS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH VERY LITTLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES NOTED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE (ISOLATED) STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS EACH DAY WITH MID-LEVEL OR 500 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -9.5 TO -11 DEG C. ADDITIONALLY...
CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MORE VULNERABLE OR SENSITIVE AREAS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL BE MORE OF A
TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO LIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY IN PLACE
BEGINS TO FILL AND POTENTIALLY CUT OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE NERN
GULF...PLENTY OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND VERY
LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
DAY.
85/AG
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CONVECTION MAY SLOW DOWN SOME. WHILE
MODELS ARE COMING IN MAINLY DRY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA BY TUESDAY, HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AD THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOONS.
/SI
&&
.AVIATION...
MORNING CONVECTION HAS LOCALLY STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE KEEPING
CONVECTION FROM FORMING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA FROM LEFTOVER
CONVECTION ACROSS THE KEYS...WHICH IS FURTHER INHIBITING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. LATEST HRRR STILL DEVELOPS SHRAS/TSRAS ACROSS BROWARD
AND PALM BEACH COUNTY STARTING AROUND 20Z DUE TO BETTER HEATING IN
THESE AREAS. THEREFORE DECIDED TO DELAY VCTS UNTIL AFTER 20Z FOR ALL
OF THE EAST COAST SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
LOCAL WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE WATERS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND ANY HEAVY
SHOWERS OR STORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 72 90 74 89 / 40 40 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 90 77 90 / 40 40 20 40
MIAMI 74 91 76 90 / 40 40 20 40
NAPLES 73 88 72 90 / 40 40 20 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...10/CD
SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM...SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1207 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
A subtle surface front - evident in the surface pressure, wind,
and dewpoint fields - stretches across the area from SW to NE.
This front was roughly along a line from Panama City, to
Bainbridge, to northern Berrien County as of 16Z. During the
morning hours, scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed
along and ahead of the front and a few have been strong-severe
with gusty winds. The environment ahead of the front is
characterized by moderate instability of 1500-2000 j/kg and about
20 knots of effective bulk shear, which has been sufficient for
some organized multicell thunderstorms. There are also some
notable dry layers in the mid-levels of the atmosphere per the 12Z
Tallahassee sounding, as well as RAP analysis, so delta theta-E
values are quite elevated (25-30K). Such values can be favorable
for stronger downbursts, and we have already seen evidence of that
in a few storms. Therefore, "gusty winds" wording was added to the
forecast where more concentrated areas of thunderstorms are
expected. We decreased PoPs in the northwest half of the area -
behind the front - where dewpoints have dropped enough to reduce
instability substantially. Although a larger area of thunderstorms
is close to exiting our forecast area as of 16Z, additional
scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon.
&&
.Marine...
A SCEC headline was added to the east of Apalachicola earlier this
morning with several observation sites reporting sustained winds
in the 15-18 knot range. Winds should generally diminish this
afternoon (outside of thunderstorms), so the SCEC headline will
probably be able to be dropped later this afternoon or evening.
Winds and seas will continue to diminish Friday and remain minimal
through the weekend.
&&
.Prev Discussion [606 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Weakening upper trough axis will slide east of the forecast area
overnight tonight. Any remaining convection this evening should be
confined to the far eastern zones. Another shortwave is forecast
to dig into the base of the broad eastern CONUS trough on Friday,
leading to an increase in afternoon and evening convection,
especially west of the Apalachicola River where highest PoPs are
expected. The aforementioned shortwave is forecast to transition
into a cutoff low by Saturday as heights rise over the Ohio
Valley. With the cutoff low situated over the northeastern Gulf
Coast, expect to see an enhancement of the typical sea-breeze
convection for Saturday. Given the expected coverage of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms, high temps will likely be at or a
little below normal for Friday and Saturday.
.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
Wet scenario to continue into extended period. The larger scale
pattern shows a mid level trough moving into the Lower MS Valley
with this feature developing into a low over MS on Sat. A surface
ridge will remain south of the area through the period. This will
increase onshore (mainly SW) flow across Gulf region. The
approaching low will most likely stall out bringing cloud cover
and rain Friday night until Tuesday with the support of an upper
level trough. This pattern is indicative of higher than typical
rain chances for the region. By Wednesday high pressure will
return bringing a drier weather pattern.
.Aviation...
[Through 12z Friday] Mainly VFR conditions will prevail. Scattered
convection is expected this morning through this afternoon with
the best chance at TLH and VLD and lower chances farther to the
west.
.Fire Weather...
No big fire weather concerns are expected through the next several
days. Dispersions may climb above 75 this afternoon over most of the
area away from the coast.
.Hydrology...
All area rivers are below flood stage. An upper level trough will
bring scattered rain chances for the region through the weekend.
While locally heavy rain will be possible, significant impacts on
river levels are not anticipated.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 85 71 90 69 88 / 60 30 40 30 50
Panama City 85 74 87 71 87 / 30 10 40 30 50
Dothan 90 70 91 69 90 / 10 20 50 40 50
Albany 91 69 91 69 90 / 10 20 30 30 50
Valdosta 91 69 90 68 87 / 70 30 40 30 50
Cross City 83 70 89 68 88 / 70 30 30 30 50
Apalachicola 85 75 87 71 85 / 60 10 40 30 50
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Bay-
Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT/CAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
940 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.UPDATE...
THE LARGE RAIN SHIELD THAT LED TO THE ACTIVE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA HAS DIMINISHED WITH MAINLY SPRINKLES OR
DRIZZLE REMAINING THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN UPDATED TO DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
PERIOD TODAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE CANOPY
OF CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS NOTED AROUND
GLADES/HENDRY COUNTIES. IF THIS CLOUD COVERAGE MANAGES TO BURN OFF
OR BREAK THROUGH THE DAY...A COMBINATION OF THE PULSES OF ENERGY
WRAPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD. THE
MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING AT MIAMI SHOWED A VERY MOIST COLUMN
WITH A PW OF 1.74" AND DECENT LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 850 AND 600MB.
THE 500 MB TEMPERATURE WAS AT 9.6 C DEGREES...WHICH WAS COLDER
THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS. CONSIDERING THE
RAINFALL THAT HAS FALLEN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE REALIZED IF THESE CONDITIONS
MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...IF THE CLOUD COVERAGE MANAGES TO STAY IN
PLACE...THE CHANCES OF AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON WILL BE LOWER. THE
LATEST HRRR ACTUALLY REFLECTS THIS LATTER SOLUTION OR MORE OF A
QUIET AFTERNOON PERIOD DUE TO THE OVERCAST CONDITIONS. CONSIDERING
THESE VARIOUS POSSIBILITIES...VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR THIS PERIOD TODAY.
85/AG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014/
AVIATION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS. MOSTLY STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS
CURRENTLY SEEN TO THE WEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS RAIN SHIELD
CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN. PLACED TEMPOS AT KMIA
AND KTMB THROUGH 15Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH VCSH PREVAILING.
MAIN CONCERN ARE THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IF CLOUDS
AND LIGHT RAIN REMAIN PREDOMINANT...CONVECTION WILL BE DIMINISHED.
LATEST HRRR DEPICTS AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AROUND MIDDAY SO
KEPT VCTS IN AT ALL SITES AFTER 17Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND UPPER LEVEL FRONT ARE MAKING THEIR WAY
TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL BRING
SEVERAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS
WELL.
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND FRONT ARE WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, INCLUDING BOTH WATER VAPOR AND IR. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL
TROUGH WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WITH THE FRONT STALLING OVER
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND TOMORROW, CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND AGAIN TOMORROW. THE MODELS
ARE NOW SHOWING THE 500MB TEMPS TO BE AROUND -10C TODAY, WHICH IS
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COULD
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON.
ALSO, THE NAM MODEL SOUNDING IS SHOWING SOME SATURATION ABOVE
500MB, WITH SOME DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO HIGHER DOWNBURST POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN,
ALTHOUGH MAY STILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER, SHOWING AT AROUND 12800 FT, INSTEAD OF 14K.
THE NCAPE WILL BE ABOVE 1 THIS AFTERNOON, INDICATING STRONGER
UPDRAFTS THAN YESTERDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LOWER FREEZING
LEVEL MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE HAIL IN LOCALIZED AREAS
TODAY. SO STRONG STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE AND A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
OF THEM TO BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS OF
HAIL AND GUSTY WIND. STORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN ONCE AGAIN, BUT
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING A LITTLE BIT FASTER TODAY.
TOMORROW WILL SEE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND POSSIBLY A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH, BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
TO SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH MANY OF THE PARAMETERS LOOKING SIMILAR TO
TODAY.
BY THE WEEKEND, A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A REMNANT OF THE TROUGH SITTING AS A WEAK
ENCLOSED LOW OVER NORTH FLORIDA. THIS MAY HELP TO KEEP AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE TEMPERATURE AT 500MB REMAINS AROUND -10C THROUGH
SATURDAY, WHEN IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY WARM. THIS MAY HELP TO LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH ANY SEA BREEZES THAT DEVELOP
WILL PROBABLY CAUSE CONVECTION TO OCCUR.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY, WHICH WILL
PUSH ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES OCCUR WESTWARD, TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. THUS, HAVE SHIFTED THE HIGHER POPS IN THAT DIRECTION.
AFTER THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
CONVECTION MAY SLOW DOWN SOME. WHILE MODELS ARE COMING IN MAINLY
DRY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA BY TUESDAY, HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AD THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
THEN STALL THROUGH TOMORROW, BEFORE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE MAINLAND, WHICH MAY MOVE OVER COASTAL WATERS. BY THE WEEKEND,
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY. THIS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO
BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE WEEKEND TO AROUND 3 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 70 89 72 / 60 20 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 72 89 74 / 60 20 50 20
MIAMI 88 71 90 74 / 60 20 50 20
NAPLES 88 72 88 74 / 60 20 50 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....85/AG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
810 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS. MOSTLY STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS
CURRENTLY SEEN TO THE WEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS RAIN SHIELD
CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN. PLACED TEMPOS AT KMIA
AND KTMB THROUGH 15Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH VCSH PREVAILING.
MAIN CONCERN ARE THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IF CLOUDS
AND LIGHT RAIN REMAIN PREDOMINANT...CONVECTION WILL BE DIMINISHED.
LATEST HRRR DEPICTS AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AROUND MIDDAY SO
KEPT VCTS IN AT ALL SITES AFTER 17Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND UPPER LEVEL FRONT ARE MAKING THEIR WAY
TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL BRING
SEVERAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS
WELL.
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND FRONT ARE WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, INCLUDING BOTH WATER VAPOR AND IR. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL
TROUGH WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WITH THE FRONT STALLING OVER
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND TOMORROW, CAUSING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND AGAIN TOMORROW. THE MODELS
ARE NOW SHOWING THE 500MB TEMPS TO BE AROUND -10C TODAY, WHICH IS
A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COULD
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON.
ALSO, THE NAM MODEL SOUNDING IS SHOWING SOME SATURATION ABOVE
500MB, WITH SOME DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO HIGHER DOWNBURST POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN,
ALTHOUGH MAY STILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY LOWER, SHOWING AT AROUND 12800 FT, INSTEAD OF 14K.
THE NCAPE WILL BE ABOVE 1 THIS AFTERNOON, INDICATING STRONGER
UPDRAFTS THAN YESTERDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LOWER FREEZING
LEVEL MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE HAIL IN LOCALIZED AREAS
TODAY. SO STRONG STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE AND A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
OF THEM TO BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS OF
HAIL AND GUSTY WIND. STORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN ONCE AGAIN, BUT
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING A LITTLE BIT FASTER TODAY.
TOMORROW WILL SEE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND POSSIBLY A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH, BRINGING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
TO SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH MANY OF THE PARAMETERS LOOKING SIMILAR TO
TODAY.
BY THE WEEKEND, A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A REMNANT OF THE TROUGH SITTING AS A WEAK
ENCLOSED LOW OVER NORTH FLORIDA. THIS MAY HELP TO KEEP AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE TEMPERATURE AT 500MB REMAINS AROUND -10C THROUGH
SATURDAY, WHEN IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY WARM. THIS MAY HELP TO LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH ANY SEA BREEZES THAT DEVELOP
WILL PROBABLY CAUSE CONVECTION TO OCCUR.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY, WHICH WILL
PUSH ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES OCCUR WESTWARD, TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. THUS, HAVE SHIFTED THE HIGHER POPS IN THAT DIRECTION.
AFTER THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
CONVECTION MAY SLOW DOWN SOME. WHILE MODELS ARE COMING IN MAINLY
DRY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA BY TUESDAY, HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AD THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS.
MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
THEN STALL THROUGH TOMORROW, BEFORE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE MAINLAND, WHICH MAY MOVE OVER COASTAL WATERS. BY THE WEEKEND,
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY. THIS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO
BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE WEEKEND TO AROUND 3 FEET.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 70 89 72 / 70 20 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 72 89 74 / 70 20 50 20
MIAMI 88 71 90 74 / 70 20 50 20
NAPLES 88 72 88 74 / 60 20 50 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
422 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY...
TODAY/TONIGHT...SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY MAINTAINING DEEP W/SW FLOW AND HIGHER
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT LATEST RUNS OF THE LOCAL
WRF AND HRRR MODELS DO NOT GENERATE MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER
THE AREA AS THEY DID YESTERDAY. HOWEVER THINNING DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL
LEAD TO SUFFICIENT HEATING TO START OFF THE DAY AND EASTWARD MOVING
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE MORE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR LIFT WITH
COOLER TEMPS...AROUND -11C...AT 500MB. SO LIKELY RAIN CHANCES STILL
LOOK GOOD ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE OFFSHORE FLOW...EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. HOWEVER
FARTHER NORTH IT IS A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE. WHERE IT DOES FORM
IT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST ONCE AGAIN AND WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. INCREASING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAY SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
NOT EXPECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER AS LONG OVERNIGHT...WITH
ACTIVITY MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE EVENING AND RAIN CHANCES ENDING
OVER LAND AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING GENERALLY INTO THE LOW 70S.
FRI-SAT...EASTERN CONUS TROUGH GETS NUDGED EAST BY ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT DROPS SE TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND
MAINTAINS CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE
SOME DRIER AIR MAKING IT INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS FRI WHICH SHOULD
REDUCE STORM COVERAGE SLIGHTLY (40 PERCENT) NORTH OF ORLANDO.
HIGHER MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS REQUIRES MAINTAINING
LIKELY (60 PERCENT) POPS. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH FRI WHICH WILL MAINTAIN OFFSHORE FLOW. AS
A RESULT...THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN WITH
COLLISION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA.
ON SAT...WEAKER MID LEVEL TROUGHING AND LESS WESTERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTH. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A LESS DOMINANT WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND PRODUCE A SEA
BREEZE COLLISION A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND BUT STILL ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. EXPECT SCATTERED LATE AFTN STORMS THAT PUSH
OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST IN THE EARLY TO MID EVE.
THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN COOL 500 MB TEMPS
AROUND -10C. COMBINED WITH SOLAR HEATING TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND INCREASE BUOYANCY...AS WELL AS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS CONTAINING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL.
SUN-WED...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER GA/FL PANHANDLE WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN/FILL. IN RESPONSE THE LOW LEVEL (SUBTROPICAL) RIDGE AXIS
WILL REACH AND MAINTAIN ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION NEAR 30N LAT.
THIS WILL ALLOW AN EARLIER ONSET AND PENETRATION OF THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE WITH TIME. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
SCATTERED AFTN STORMS BUT THE FOCUS WILL INCREASINGLY BE OVER THE
INTERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN PENINSULA
MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE AND
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH
STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
WITH THE STALLED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AS THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. W/SW WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS BECOME S/SW INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SW INTO THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT UP TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2
FEET NEARSHORE AND 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE. AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
STRONG OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.
FRI...OFFSHORE (W TO SW) FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. A LATE SEA BREEZE OUT OF THE SE
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST. A HIGH COVERAGE OF STORMS...SOME
STRONG...IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE ESP SOUTH OF THE CAPE.
SEAS 1-2 FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 3 FT OFFSHORE.
SAT-SUN...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS
THE WATERS WHICH WILL DECREASE THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND ALLOW AN
EARLIER ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE ESP ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STORMS OFFSHORE THE
FL PENINSULA SAT AFTN/EVE. ON SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
SO AFTN STORMS WILL TEND TO STAY OVER THE FL PENINSULA BUT SOME
PUSH BACK TOWARD THE COAST SHOULD OCCUR ESP NORTH OF THE CAPE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 88 71 90 71 / 60 30 40 20
MCO 90 72 92 71 / 60 20 40 20
MLB 87 73 90 72 / 60 30 50 20
VRB 87 71 90 71 / 60 30 50 20
LEE 90 73 92 73 / 60 20 40 20
SFB 90 73 92 73 / 60 20 40 20
ORL 90 74 92 74 / 60 20 40 20
FPR 87 72 89 71 / 60 30 50 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....KELLY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
140 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHINESS AND SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
PROVIDE CONTINUED CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVERGENCE INTO THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH RELATIVELY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT PLUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HRRR SHOWS
DIMINISHING COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE
BECAUSE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION WITH DIMINISHED INSTABILITY AND
NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES EAST
FRIDAY...BUT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED WITH A SECOND TROUGH DROPPING
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
IN THE FORECAST. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO PRODUCE AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS THURSDAY
ADVERTISED TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LOW...MAINLY
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. TEMPS
THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. FOR FRIDAY READINGS SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S BOTH NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS NOW SHOWING THE REGION SANDWICHED BETWEEN
UPPER RIDGING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST AND WEAK RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS KEEPS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY MID-
WEEK...DEEPER TROUGH TAKES HOLD IN THE WESTERN STATES...HELPING TO
BUILD A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WOULD EXPECT TYPICALLY SUMMER PATTERN OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION. NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
IS RESULTING IN CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE CSRA AND
WESTERN MIDLANDS. DO NOT THINK TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED BUT WILL
CARRY VCSH FOR AN HOUR AT AGS/DNL 06Z-07Z. RAINS FROM EARLIER
TODAY AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE MAY PROVIDE
LIFR/IFR STRATUS CIGS 08Z-12Z ALL TERMINALS. DNL ALREADY CARRYING
LIFR CIGS AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 13Z.
HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD HELP IMPROVE RESTRICTED CONDITIONS BY
MID TO LATE MORNING EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 14Z. THE
HEATING WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY...BUT THESE WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS
BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
WIND WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR STRONGER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAY
CAUSE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
512 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD BECOME
SEVERE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING SINCE
WINDS HERE AT KGLD AND AT KITR HIT GUST CRITERIA. SOME LOCATIONS MAY
ALSO REACH CRITERIA BASED ON SUSTAINED WINDS OF 26+ MPH FOR 3 HOURS.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN AREA FOR STRONG WINDS IS OVER CENTRAL
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CWA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS THE
TIGHTEST. LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST COULD POSSIBLE HIT ADVISORY
CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT SEEMS SLOW TO MOVE AND DAYTIME
MIXING WILL DECREASE ONCE IT GETS FURTHER EAST. HOWEVER...KEPT ALL
COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY FOR NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN BREEZY INTO SATURDAY.
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
AS A WARM FRONT IN WESTERN NEBRASKA/EASTERN COLORADO MOVES THROUGH
THE CWA AND A DRYLINE STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE CWA BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CWA...WHICH WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY IN DEVELOPING DUE TO A STRONG
CAP IN PLACE...BUT THE LIFT AVAILABLE MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE
CAP. INSTABILITY...SHEAR...AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO BECOME STRONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT MODEL TO MODEL
RUNS HAVE NOT BEEN TOO CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE SO NOT RELYING
ON IT TOO HEAVILY TODAY. THE NAM HAS PRECIPITATION OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHILE THE GFS HAS PRECIPITATION OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERING
OPINIONS ABOUT THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...IT IS A LITTLE HARDER TO
PIN DOWN EXACT LOCATIONS OF THUNDERSTORMS. FOR POP GRIDS...WENT
AHEAD AND PUT IN UP TO 30 POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY...THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE IN
PLACE AS AN 80 TO 90 KT JET STREAK MOVES OVERHEAD FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MONTANA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. INSTABILITY IS MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN LATELY WITH CAPE VALUES
AROUND 2000 TO 3000 J/KG OVER EASTERN COUNTIES IN THE CWA AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE AND ANOTHER AREA OF INSTABILITY AROUND 1500 TO 2500 J/KG
WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR ALSO LOOKS GOOD WITH 35 TO
40 KTS EAST AND 50 TO 70 KTS WRAPPING AROUND. MOISTURE ALSO LOOKS
GOOD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S IN BOTH THE EAST AND THE
NORTH. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR...MOISTURE...AND MULTIPLE
BOUNDARIES WITHIN THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WOULD NOT RULE OUT
LARGE HAIL OF 2 INCHES...DAMAGING WINDS OF 70+ MPH...AND TORNADOES
ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELLS AND MULTIPLE BOUNDARY MERGERS. THIS
THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
CLUSTERING TOGETHER AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA
TO THE EAST BY EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOVE THROUGH DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS. STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. TORNADOES CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS AND
LCLS IMPROVE. STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT
WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LEFT.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED.
RAPID 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES INDICATE THAT WINDS MAY REACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT PASSES.
ANOTHER POSSIBLE THREAT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS
FOG. WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...DIMINISHING WINDS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES...FOG MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING. DID NOT
MENTION THIS IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW QUICKLY THE WINDS WILL DIE OFF BEHIND THE FRONT.
CALM WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA AS A COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASS
THROUGH. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ARE FORECAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A LEE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE...ALLOWING SOUTH WINDS TO RETURN BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY
BRINGING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL PRIME THE TRI-STATE REGION FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
NEXT WEEK.
A DRYLINE SLIDES INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SETS UP
SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. A COUPLE
PIECES OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IF THE FORCING IS STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK
THE CAP. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE IF THE CAP IS BROKEN.
A LARGER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY EVOLVE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW
MOVEMENT OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY.
WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET...FALLING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND STRONG
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH...THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A LARGER SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE
THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE. IF A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES OUT
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BEFORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE MAY
SET UP TO THE EAST AND LEAVE THE TRI-STATE REGION DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 509 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS (POSSIBLE MVFR) FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS
EVENING AT KGLD AND KMCK. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ALW
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
349 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
Showers and Thunderstorms working their way eastward across the
forecast area with the stronger activity already east of the
turnpike at this time. Expect to see downward trend for next few
hours, with weaker area of showers and isolated embedded thunder
to work its way east to west out of the area by the noon hour.
Expecting highs generally in the lower to middle 70s as cool
advection at 850mb battles with sunshine and daytime heating. Warm
advection aloft returns overnight over nocturnal inversions, and
still anticipate lows in the 50s across the area.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
Friday mid level temperatures rise several degrees C and should
boost highs back to the upper 70s near 80 with dry conditions
expected. After weak mid level ridging moves over aloft on Friday,
west to southwest flow returns early Saturday. This should bring
overnight lows up a bit back into the upper 60s near 60 followed
by highs in the middle 80s. GFS still generates QPF during the
daytime hours but think cap is strong enough without a strong
lifting mechanism to keep only clouds at this time. Think better
chances for storms come late in the day as storms fire along the
dryline in western central Kansas and northward along the front in
Nebraska. The shortwave trof moving across the northern plains
sends front southward in the evening and overnight hours. Could
see development of some kind of MCS but still differences in
models and timing and will keep forecast more general at this time
with high chances for precipitation Sunday shifting west to east
through the day. Storms could be strong to severe with this
system.
Mon-Wed...Still uncertainty for early next week as to where
boundary ends up for Monday and how fast the next upper trof
coming onshore the west coast in this period can move eastward.
Kept precipitation chances each day and does look like an overall
warming trend is in order with highs back in the upper 80s near
90.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
Showers and Thunderstorms should continue moving east through the
morning. The latest HRRR seems to have a good handle on the
overall progression. Therefore have adjusted the timing in the
forecasts based on the HRRR. Biggest uncertainty is whether MVFR
conditions will move in. OBs upstream generally show VFR
conditions, even within the stratiform rain. Therefore have backed
off on the MVFR conditions and will monitor trends.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
226 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
GRIDS AND ZONES WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY FOR THE CANCELLATION OF
THE REMAINDER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES FOR THE ADDITION OF GOVE COUNTY TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282. ALSO UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE AFTERNOON
WORDING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STORMS BEING SEVERE. A COLD FRONT OVER
NEBRASKA WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A LARGE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT AS
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...BULK SHEAR...AND ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT TRAIL THE MAIN COLD FRONT. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM MAINTENANCE...AND THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS COMPLEX...SO USED THIS ALONG WITH
NAM AND SREF FOR POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE COMPLEX SHOULD
EXIT THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. DEBATED ADDING FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DID NOT INDICATE ANY FOG AND
JUST HINTED AT LOW STRATUS. THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY BE
ABLE TO GET A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THAT SITUATION LATER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S NORTH AND NORTHWEST TO UPPER
50S EAST.
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA AND SLIDE SOUTH AND THEN EAST. THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH A
FEW LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING DISSIPATING BY AFTERNOON LEAVING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT THU JUN 12 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM RELATE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BECOME STAGNANT OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE TRI
STATE AREA WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODEL FORECASTS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING
FOLLOWING A SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS LESS THAN STELLAR FOR AGREEMENT. MOST
MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE QUICKLY THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FAVORABLE JET POSITION...WHICH WILL BRING
SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DISAGREEMENT BECOMES
MORE NOTICEABLE ON MONDAY MORNING AS THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS BRING
IN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH WOULD INSINUATE A MORE DRY PATTERN.
HOWEVER...GFS AND DGEX BRING MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OR ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTERN THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA. ALL GUIDANCE
GENERALLY HAS THE LOCATION OF THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR TUESDAY...BUT DIFFERENCES ARE
APPARENT HEADING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY REGARDING HOW LONG
THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE.
DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS NOT VERY GOOD AT THIS POINT. MODEL RUNS
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN INDICATING ACTIVE WET WEATHER...BUT
NOW GUIDANCE IS MIXED. THEREFORE KEPT PRECIPITATION FORECAST AS A
BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITHOUT MAJOR CHANGES...WHICH LEAVES
SOME CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL AFTER COLDER
AIR MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY INTO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS ADVECTING
WARM AIR INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER SOME FORECASTS SHOW MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW WHICH WOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. DEPENDING
ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EVOLVES LATER IN THE WEEK WILL DETERMINE
HOW AREAL TEMPERATURES UNFOLD. UNTIL MODEL FORECASTS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE A STRATUS LAYER AND MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND
SUNRISE BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES
AT KGLD AND KMCK. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...ALW
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
100 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2014
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough kicking
eastward across the Central Plains today. Meanwhile, weak upper
level ridging across the Intermountain West will move eastward
across the Northern and Central Rockies through this afternoon
and through the Western High Plains tonight. Along with a fairly
weak flow aloft and somewhat drier air moving southward into
western Kansas behind a departing cold front early this morning,
generally dry conditions are likely through tonight across central
and southwest Kansas. Although, a few lingering showers/isolated
thunderstorms will be possible across south central Kansas early
this morning in the vicinity of the frontal boundary.
Much cooler temperatures are likely today as cooler air surges
southward into western Kansas today behind a departing cold front.
The NAM/GFS show H85 temperatures falling to around 15C across
central Kansas today with near 20C across extreme southwest Kansas.
As cloud cover decreases through this afternoon, highs can be
expected up into the 70s(F) to near 80F. Look for lows down into the
mid to upper 50s(F) tonight as southeasterly winds quickly return to
western Kansas while surface high pressure slides southeast out of
the Northern Plains into the Central Plains of Iowa, Missouri, and
eastern Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
All of the morning NMM/ARW and NAM models in addition to several
runs of the HRRR indicate high confidence in convection developing
early this evening and spreading rapidly eastward into central
Kansas as a QLCS. Models indicate a marked in increase in layer
precipitable water through the late afternoon and evening, with
SREF QPF values in excess of an inch. MUCAPES around 2000 J/KG in
early afternoon were also forecast to increase to in excess of 3000
J/kg. This pre-storm environment thermodynamic in combination with
ample 30 knots of deep bulk shear will be conducive to gaining a
high confidence in a few rotating updrafts initially in our
northwest counties or basically anywhere from around Kearny county
through Scott City and Dighton. These hail producers will quickly
develop a cold pool generating widespread slab-like convection
eastward into central Kansas though mid evening with damaging wind
the highest threat followed by potential for hail and flooding from
very heavy rainfall. This morning`s flash flood guidance for 3 hours
was as low as 2 inches across portions of the area still outlined by
a flood watch, which will make flooding to occur easily in some of
the areas that have had in excess of 400% of normal rainfall in the
last week or more.
Beyond this evening`s high probability convection episode, north
surface winds will develop behind the convection as the front is
forced southward. Models have indicated potential for showers and
probably elevated storms continuing into in the far south east areas
into the early daylight hours on Thursday. Much cooler conditions
ion cool advection are expected Thursday afternoon with highs
struggling through the 70s in most locations.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
Showers and thunderstorms will linger across central and eastern
portions of southwest Kansas overnight resulting in possible MVFR
cigs through daybreak. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail in the vicinity of all TAF sites through late Thursday
afternoon. Winds will become northerly around 20 to 30kt behind a
cold front pushing southeastward across south central Kansas early
this morning. Winds will become northeasterly while subsiding to
around 10 to 20kt Thursday afternoon as surface high pressure
drifts southeast across the Northern Plains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 55 83 65 95 / 0 0 20 20
GCK 55 85 65 96 / 0 10 20 10
EHA 58 88 65 96 / 0 10 20 10
LBL 57 87 66 97 / 0 0 20 10
HYS 53 83 65 92 / 0 0 20 40
P28 57 84 65 89 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ030-031-046-065-
066-079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1117 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
GRIDS AND ZONES WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY FOR THE CANCELLATION OF
THE REMAINDER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES FOR THE ADDITION OF GOVE COUNTY TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 282. ALSO UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE AFTERNOON
WORDING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STORMS BEING SEVERE. A COLD FRONT OVER
NEBRASKA WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A LARGE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT AS
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...BULK SHEAR...AND ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT TRAIL THE MAIN COLD FRONT. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM MAINTENANCE...AND THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS COMPLEX...SO USED THIS ALONG WITH
NAM AND SREF FOR POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE COMPLEX SHOULD
EXIT THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. DEBATED ADDING FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DID NOT INDICATE ANY FOG AND
JUST HINTED AT LOW STRATUS. THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY BE
ABLE TO GET A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THAT SITUATION LATER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S NORTH AND NORTHWEST TO UPPER
50S EAST.
THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA AND SLIDE SOUTH AND THEN EAST. THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH A
FEW LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING DISSIPATING BY AFTERNOON LEAVING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS ON FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE
TRAIN FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH AMERICA.
AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE NOT DOING WELL. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO
FAR SOUTH WITH FEATURES/LOWER HEIGHTS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE NORTH
CENTRAL UPPER TROUGH. THIS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY BUT IS WORSE
TODAY. OVERALL THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST. THE SREF
LOOKED TO BE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON THE SURFACE
AND WIND FIELD. THE GFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN...SREF TENDED TO DO THE
BEST WITH THE NAM TOO WARM AND THE UKMET TOO COOL ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SHOWN YESTERDAY MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. MID
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING. SOME ELEVATED CAPE WILL
BE IN PLACE WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON THE AMOUNT OF CINH. THE NAM
HAS AREA FULLY CAPPED WITH THE GFS LEAVING OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OCCURRING. THE CONSENSUS OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPORT KEEPING THE AIR MASS CAPPED. SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AGAIN WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY BUT WILL
BEAR WATCHING. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LARGE PRESSURE FALLS
SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS HAVE COME UP ON THEIR SPEEDS WITH
NEAR TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE WESTERN HALF FOR MOST
OF THE DAY INTO EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAMPED THE WINDS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED.
MAIN SURFACE TROUGH STILL REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BUT WHAT LOOKS TO BE A SHARPENING DRY LINE IS SETTING
UP NEAR TO OR JUST WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. INSTABILITY AXIS AND
MID LEVEL LIFT ALSO SETS IN THE SAME AREA WITH LITTLE CINH IN THIS
AREA. SO ADD A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COLORADO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON THE
MAXES WITH THE NEW GUIDANCE NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAR TO TAKE THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE NIGHT. MODELS DO DEVELOP A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. THIS PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. AT
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THE LOW POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT ARE TALKED ABOUT IN THE NEXT
PERIOD START SHOWING UP HERE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THE OUTPUT LOOKING TO BE AFFECTING BY
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. ESSENTIALLY THE WEST TO NORTHWEST HALF LOOKS TO
HAVE A RIGHT RIGHT REAR QUADRANT AFFECT THIS AREA FROM LATE IN THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO MOVES FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
VERY DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS ARRIVES EARLY IN THE DAY WITH THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. FRONT
IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PROBLEM IS THAT
IN ADVANCE OF IT THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE SURGES SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AREA WITH EXTREMELY LOW DEWPOINTS EXCEPT RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT.
SO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
THE EML AND THE SURFACE DRY LINE IS LOCATED. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT PROFILE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREAS. SO CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THOSE AREAS AT THIS TIME.
IT WILL GET HOT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER
THIS AREA WILL HAVE TO EXPANDED. CURRENTLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF WILL
HAVE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES. IF THE FUELS WERE FAVORABLE THE WINDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL
SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY BECOMES GREATER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ESSENTIALLY
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SAME IDEA BUT DIFFER ON THE DETAILS. BUT
ESSENTIALLY NO MATTER WHICH WAY YOU WANT TO GO...OUTPUT SUPPORTS A
CONTINUED ACTIVE/WET PATTERN.
THE ONE TENDENCY THAT THE ENSEMBLES LOOK TO BE TRENDING TOWARD IS A
MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW...SHARP RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG/FAR SOUTH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A SLOWER AND
FURTHER SOUTH POSITION OF THIS TROUGH WHICH TENDS TO SUPPORT THE
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SOLUTION.
OVERALL THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT THE LATEST CRH_INIT RUN
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. AFTER FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY REMAINS DRY WHILE THE AIR MASS RELOADS LATER
THAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN A POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT. THIS
FRONT THEN REMAINS EITHER NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH AREA OR WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN A NEW
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRING THROUGH SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND JET LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME PERIODS.
THAT COMBINED WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONT COULD MAKE FOR A VERY
ACTIVE PERIOD WITH THE QPF FIELDS INDICATING A MCS IN EACH OF THESE
NIGHTTIME PERIODS. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INIT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE A STRATUS LAYER AND MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND
SUNRISE BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES
AT KGLD AND KMCK. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MID MORNING AND
CONTINING THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...ALW
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1212 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2014
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
Water vapor imagery showed the exiting mid-level trough advancing
into the Ohio River valley with a weak mid-level ridge stretching
across the Southern and Central Plains. A large mid-level trough was
situated over Canada and clipping the Northern Plains. Models show
this trough deepening and digging further south tonight, which will
help to push an area of low pressure and an associated cold front
eastward across the region. Additionally, a weak embedded shortwave
was noted on water vapor imagery over northern Colorado. Models are
in good agreement in this wave strengthening as it gets caught up in
the frontal passage, with an MCS potentially developing overnight
and tracking southeastward across the state. Short-range model runs
have been consistent in keeping conditions dry across the region
through early to mid evening, with the SW- to NE-oriented cold front
likely advancing into north central Kansas between 03z-05z. The cap
that`s currently in place should weaken this evening, but lapse
rates don`t look to be that great with soundings showing deep
moist-adiabatic conditions. MUCAPE values may be upwards of
2500-2800 J/kg with 0-6km bulk shear upwards of 20-30kts, so these
conditions may be enough to get a few strong to severe thunderstorms
to develop through late this evening as this line of storms enters
into north central Kansas. The threats with the strongest storms
would be large hail and damaging winds. However, another concern
will be for the potential for some heavy rain and localized flash
flooding as PWAT values are upwards of 1.7-1.9 inches. Many
locations received 2-4" of rain from Monday`s system, resulting in
very saturated ground, so the 1-hour flash flood guidance for much
of the region is 1.5-1.9 inches. So this flash flood concern will
need to be monitored through the overnight hours. As the cold
front tracks across the region overnight, widespread post-frontal
showers and thunderstorms are expected with north central Kansas
likely drying out by Thursday morning. This cold front should be
southeast of the area by mid morning with the post-frontal
precipitation over eastern Kansas diminishing by late morning
through early afternoon.
As for temperatures, southerly winds and mostly clear skies allowed
temperatures to rise into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. With
the increasing cloud cover overnight from the precipitation, low
temperatures will be a bit warmer tonight with lows only dropping
into the low/mid 60s. The combination of gradually decreasing cloud
cover and northerly winds behind the front will result in
below-normal temperatures for Thursday with highs only expected to
reach into the middle/upper 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
A ridge of high pressure builds southeastward across eastern KS
Thursday night with mostly clear skies and calm winds toward
morning. This could lead to some patchy dense fog for areas of east
central KS around sunrise Friday. Temps are expected to be cool
with lows in the middle 50s. On Friday, the high moves off to the
east while low pressure develops in the lee of the Rockies, turning
the winds to south. Highs are not expected to be too warm with
mainly upper 70s expected.
A piece of the western U.S. trough comes out onto the Plains
Saturday and Saturday night with increasing chances for
thunderstorms by Saturday evening. The front associated with this
trough stalls near Kansas for the early to middle part of next week
with disturbances in broadly cyclonic upper flow periodically moving
through. While the best dynamics should be to our north, there will
be enough lift with these systems in proximity to the front to give
chances for thunderstorms each day. High temperatures for the
weekend through the middle part of next week should be mostly in
the 80s. With increasing low-level moisture, overnight lows from
Sunday through Wednesday are forecast in the upper 60s to around
70.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
Showers and Thunderstorms should continue moving east through the
morning. The latest HRRR seems to have a good handle on the
overall progression. Therefore have adjusted the timing in the
forecasts based on the HRRR. Biggest uncertainty is whether MVFR
conditions will move in. OBs upstream generally show VFR
conditions, even within the stratiform rain. Therefore have backed
off on the MVFR conditions and will monitor trends.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1202 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2014
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
Water vapor imagery and 00Z upper air analysis indicate an upper
level shortwave trough pushing eastward across the Western High
Plains. Meanwhile, a weak upper level ridge of high pressure is
transitioning eastward across the Intermountain West. Near the
surface, a cold front is shifting southeastward out of western
into central Kansas. Ample low level moisture lingers across
western Kansas behind a departing cold front with observed
surface dewpoints mainly in the 50s(F).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
A surface cold front extended from eastern South Dakota to near
Sidney, Nebraska slowly moving south through the Northern High
Plains. An are of relative low pressure was developing over
southeast Colorado with an attendant inverted surface trough
extending northward toward the cold front. Regional WSR88D composite
reflectivity was already showing clusters of surface based
thunderstorms developing off the Palmer Divide as well as the Sangre
de Cristo regions in Colorado. Ahead of the frontal boundary,
southerly winds were in place with surface dew points in the upper
50s to around 60 degrees across the eastern Counties. Drier air
existed west of Highway 83 where dew points were in the mid 40s but
increasing.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
All of the morning NMM/ARW and NAM models in addition to several
runs of the HRRR indicate high confidence in convection developing
early this evening and spreading rapidly eastward into central
Kansas as a QLCS. Models indicate a marked in increase in layer
precipitable water through the late afternoon and evening, with
SREF QPF values in excess of an inch. MUCAPES around 2000 J/KG in
early afternoon were also forecast to increase to in excess of 3000
J/kg. This pre-storm environment thermodynamic in combination with
ample 30 knots of deep bulk shear will be conducive to gaining a
high confidence in a few rotating updrafts initially in our
northwest counties or basically anywhere from around Kearny county
through Scott City and Dighton. These hail producers will quickly
develop a cold pool generating widespread slab-like convection
eastward into central Kansas though mid evening with damaging wind
the highest threat followed by potential for hail and flooding from
very heavy rainfall. This morning`s flash flood guidance for 3 hours
was as low as 2 inches across portions of the area still outlined by
a flood watch, which will make flooding to occur easily in some of
the areas that have had in excess of 400% of normal rainfall in the
last week or more.
Beyond this evening`s high probability convection episode, north
surface winds will develop behind the convection as the front is
forced southward. Models have indicated potential for showers and
probably elevated storms continuing into in the far south east areas
into the early daylight hours on Thursday. Much cooler conditions
ion cool advection are expected Thursday afternoon with highs
struggling through the 70s in most locations.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
Showers and thunderstorms will linger across central and eastern
portions of southwest Kansas overnight resulting in possible MVFR
cigs through daybreak. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to
prevail in the vicinity of all TAF sites through late Thursday
afternoon. Winds will become northerly around 20 to 30kt behind a
cold front pushing southeastward across south central Kansas early
this morning. Winds will become northeasterly while subsiding to
around 10 to 20kt Thursday afternoon as surface high pressure
drifts southeast across the Northern Plains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 58 78 55 83 / 90 10 0 0
GCK 57 77 55 85 / 60 10 0 10
EHA 58 78 58 88 / 40 10 0 10
LBL 58 79 57 87 / 60 10 0 0
HYS 58 77 53 83 / 90 10 0 0
P28 64 80 57 84 / 90 40 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 AM CDT Thursday FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-
063>066-077>081.
FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT Thursday FOR KSZ030-031-046-065-066-
079>081.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1020 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED NDFD HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 718 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
HAVE UPDATED NDFD FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ENDING
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. PRIMARY UPDATE WAS TO SKY COVER...TO SPEED UP
CLEARING IN LINE WITH LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. THE CONSSHORT BLEND
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND USED THIS FOR HOURLY SKY COVER GRIDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG STILL
LOOKS ON TARGET FOR LATER TONIGHT...AND WILL UPDATE HWO TO REMOVE
THUNDER FOR THIS EVENING AND ADD LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG FOR LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SLICING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. A
FEW CLUSTERS OF STORMS REMAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT MAINLY
ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES
CLIMBED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S IN THE EAST AHEAD OF THE
PCPN...WHILE PEAKING IN THE LOWER 70S TO THE WEST. STILL SOME
SUNSHINE IN THE FAR EAST WHILE CLOUDS ARE THICKER AND MORE EXTENSIVE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT THE CLEARING LINE IS NOT FAR TO
THE WEST OF THE JKL CWA. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...VARY FROM THE
MIDDLE 60S IN THE EAST AND THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY TO THE LOWER
60S IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE BECOMING NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH ITS
PASSAGE...STILL GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TO
START THE WEEKEND. RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND OVER
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THE AGREEMENT HAVE
GONE WITH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND AND SPECIAL EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND
THE NAM12 THROUGH THE FIRST TWELVE HOURS...USHERING THE FRONT EAST
OF THE STATE.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE FRONT AND ITS CONVECTION MOVING
EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD FOLLOW BY MIDNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS CAA WILL BE COMPETING WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...HAVE
BROUGHT THE DEEPER VALLEYS DOWN THE LOWEST...UPPER 40S...WITH THE
RIDGES NOT MUCH WARMER IN THE LOWER 50S. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND EXPECTATION OF FOG FORMATION
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE VALLEYS...LIKELY BECOMING DENSE IN THE VALLEYS
TOWARDS DAWN. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING ON SATURDAY WITH A
VERY NICE DAY TO FOLLOW UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME RESIDUAL FOG
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN SUNDAY.
AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD AND WINDS
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY BEFORE FILLING THE REST WITH THE BCCONSALL.
DID FINE TUNE THE VALLEY AND RIDGE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR ADVECTION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR POPS...ASIDE FROM
THE NEXT FEW HOURS HAVE KEPT THEM VERY LOW...IN LINE WITH ALL MOS
GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS BRINGING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY ON MONDAY...WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST REMAINING STRONG AND CONTINUING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
SURFACE FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH LATE ON MONDAY BUT BECOMES
STALLED NORTH OF THE OH RIVER. THE NORTHERN JET STREAM BECOMES
AMPLIFIED INTO THE MID WEEK BUT CONFINED TO THE NORTH LEAVING A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND ALSO OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE OH VALLEY.
CONCERNING THE PATTERN AND THE MODEL CONSISTENCY. EVEN THE FEW
PERTURBATIONS IN THE PATTERN...LET ALONE SOME OF THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT FEATURES...SHOW LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE EURO BRINGS THE STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA...WHERE THE GFS KEEPS THE STALLED BOUNDARY NORTH OF
THE RIVER FOR THE TUE THROUGH THU TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY
MOIST FLOW MON THRU THU...WILL NEED TO AT LEAST KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...HITTING A MAXIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...THE RESULT OF THE ALL MODEL BLEND WAS QUITE GENEROUS WITH
POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WHILE THIS IS A BIT MUCH...THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THIS PATTERN AND THE BEHAVIOR OF THE MODELS WOULD
SWAY ONE TO STAY CLOSER TO THE MODEL ALL BLEND VALUES. AS
WELL...WITH THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...THE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S SEEM TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH
THIS SET UP AND A HOT AND HUMID STRETCH OF DAYS STARTING ON MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE CASE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 718 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL ALLOW FOG FORMATION
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE FOG BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE BY LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT THE SME...LOZ...AND SJS SITES TO DROP TO LIFR BEFORE DAWN
WITH IFR EXPECTED FOR A TIME AT JKL. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF SATURDAY
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
719 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 718 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
HAVE UPDATED NDFD FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ENDING
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. PRIMARY UPDATE WAS TO SKY COVER...TO SPEED UP
CLEARING IN LINE WITH LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. THE CONSSHORT BLEND
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND USED THIS FOR HOURLY SKY COVER GRIDS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG STILL
LOOKS ON TARGET FOR LATER TONIGHT...AND WILL UPDATE HWO TO REMOVE
THUNDER FOR THIS EVENING AND ADD LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG FOR LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT SLICING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. A
FEW CLUSTERS OF STORMS REMAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT MAINLY
ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES
CLIMBED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S IN THE EAST AHEAD OF THE
PCPN...WHILE PEAKING IN THE LOWER 70S TO THE WEST. STILL SOME
SUNSHINE IN THE FAR EAST WHILE CLOUDS ARE THICKER AND MORE EXTENSIVE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA...BUT THE CLEARING LINE IS NOT FAR TO
THE WEST OF THE JKL CWA. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...VARY FROM THE
MIDDLE 60S IN THE EAST AND THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY TO THE LOWER
60S IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE BECOMING NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH ITS
PASSAGE...STILL GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TO
START THE WEEKEND. RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND OVER
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WITH THE AGREEMENT HAVE
GONE WITH A GENERAL MODEL BLEND AND SPECIAL EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND
THE NAM12 THROUGH THE FIRST TWELVE HOURS...USHERING THE FRONT EAST
OF THE STATE.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE FRONT AND ITS CONVECTION MOVING
EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD FOLLOW BY MIDNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS CAA WILL BE COMPETING WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...HAVE
BROUGHT THE DEEPER VALLEYS DOWN THE LOWEST...UPPER 40S...WITH THE
RIDGES NOT MUCH WARMER IN THE LOWER 50S. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND EXPECTATION OF FOG FORMATION
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE VALLEYS...LIKELY BECOMING DENSE IN THE VALLEYS
TOWARDS DAWN. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING ON SATURDAY WITH A
VERY NICE DAY TO FOLLOW UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOW HUMIDITY.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME RESIDUAL FOG
STILL POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN SUNDAY.
AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD AND WINDS
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY BEFORE FILLING THE REST WITH THE BCCONSALL.
DID FINE TUNE THE VALLEY AND RIDGE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR ADVECTION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR POPS...ASIDE FROM
THE NEXT FEW HOURS HAVE KEPT THEM VERY LOW...IN LINE WITH ALL MOS
GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS BRINGING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY ON MONDAY...WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST REMAINING STRONG AND CONTINUING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
SURFACE FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH LATE ON MONDAY BUT BECOMES
STALLED NORTH OF THE OH RIVER. THE NORTHERN JET STREAM BECOMES
AMPLIFIED INTO THE MID WEEK BUT CONFINED TO THE NORTH LEAVING A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND ALSO OVER THE NORTHEAST...WITH
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE OH VALLEY.
CONCERNING THE PATTERN AND THE MODEL CONSISTENCY. EVEN THE FEW
PERTURBATIONS IN THE PATTERN...LET ALONE SOME OF THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT FEATURES...SHOW LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE EURO BRINGS THE STALLED BOUNDARY SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA...WHERE THE GFS KEEPS THE STALLED BOUNDARY NORTH OF
THE RIVER FOR THE TUE THROUGH THU TIME FRAME. DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY
MOIST FLOW MON THRU THU...WILL NEED TO AT LEAST KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...HITTING A MAXIMUM DURING THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...THE RESULT OF THE ALL MODEL BLEND WAS QUITE GENEROUS WITH
POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WHILE THIS IS A BIT MUCH...THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THIS PATTERN AND THE BEHAVIOR OF THE MODELS WOULD
SWAY ONE TO STAY CLOSER TO THE MODEL ALL BLEND VALUES. AS
WELL...WITH THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...THE HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S SEEM TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH
THIS SET UP AND A HOT AND HUMID STRETCH OF DAYS STARTING ON MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE CASE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 718 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL ALLOW FOG FORMATION
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE FOG BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE BY LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT THE SME...LOZ...AND SJS SITES TO DROP TO LIFR BEFORE DAWN
WITH IFR EXPECTED FOR A TIME AT JKL. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF SATURDAY
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
607 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 605 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2014
The forecast is largely on track this evening, just made a few
tweaks to account for ongoing trends. Shortwave ridging has built
into the region for the time being, meaning any precip threat has
come to an end. Attention will then turn toward the west over the
next few hours as a shortwave trough and associated low pressure/MCV
work into the region. A few strong storms have been noted across
portions of NE Arkansas where a low-level theta-e axis resides and
associated stronger instability. This better thunderstorm coverage
should continue to work ESE along this axis this evening into
portions of TN. Further north across our area, still expect mainly
showers with a few embedded rumbles of thunder overnight. Have
slowed down the timing of this precip into the region by an hour or
two based on the latest HRRR which has a decent handle on ongoing
convection, otherwise the rest of the forecast looks on target.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2014
Other than a stray shower lingering in our far east, we should see a
quiet evening as brief upper level ridging takes over behind the
departing trough. A look at visible satellite imagery shows cu not
really becoming more agitated, and water vapor imagery shows drier
air working in from the west. Meanwhile, current radar only shows
one blip in Cumberland county so won`t even carry mention of
isolated showers as coverage is less than 20%. Temperatures are right
on track to top out right around 80 and in the low 80s.
As we move into the overnight, a cold front trailing from a potent
upper level system over the upper Great Lakes will approach, passing
through by mid afternoon on Friday. Expect widely scattered to
scattered showers/iso T along this boundary as it passes, with
numerous showers possible along the Tennessee border, where better
deep moisture will be present. Looking upstream at what is currently
going on compared to what model QPF shows would leave me to believe
that coverage may end up being on the lower side. Especially, if you
consider how poorly models have performed lately with QPF fields.
Nevertheless, with the frontal passage and at least some deep
moisture to work with, 30-50% coverage in most spots is reasonable.
Best timing will be from around dawn through midday across central
and western parts of the CWA. Showers/storms could linger into the
early evening east.
Look for lows tonight mainly in the 61-66 degree range. Highs on
Friday will be a bit tricky due to the frontal passage/cloud cover.
Will go aggressively cool in the eastern CWA where low clouds will
hang the longest and only top out in the low 70s. Elsewhere, the CWA
should see enough sun mid to late afternoon to find the mid and
upper 70s.
Surface high pressure and ridging aloft build in by Friday night
leading to a clear and very cool night. Have most lows dropping into
the 52-57 degree range! A few slightly cooler spots may be possible
in sheltered valleys.
.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2014
After a brief cooldown Saturday will begin a transition back to warm
and humid conditions across the region. High pressure at the surface
will begin to shift east and return flow will set up bringing
moisture back in to the area. Aloft ridging will build across the
southeastern CONUS. A low pressure system will form across the
Plains and track into MN Saturday through Sunday and its cold front
will approach the area through Monday. However, it is expected to
stall across Indiana, keeping the forecast area in southerly flow
through mid week.
Saturday looks to be the coolest day of the period, with the lowest
dewpoints as well. Highs will top out in the lower 80s. Sunday`s
temps will top out in the mid 80s with dewpoints rising back into
the mid 60s. An isolated shower cannot be completely ruled out
across the far south central Kentucky on Sunday, but think the
chance is fairly low, so will keep the forecast dry for now.
Rain chances will return next week as warm and humid conditions lead
to disorganized afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each
day. Afternoons will be quite muggy with highs topping out in the
upper 80s to around 90 with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 113 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2014
Mainly VFR conditions expected through this forecast cycle, although
could reduce visibilities overnight in fog and/or light showers, and
bring in lower ceilings on Friday. Any chance for a shower late this
afternoon/evening would only be at LEX, and even then
chances/coverage are too low to mention.
A cold front will approach overnight, with most of the precipitation
and potential lower ceilings post frontal. Therefore, think the
initial lower visibilities will be due to fog/mist at BWG/LEX,
however as the front passes more solid MVFR ceilings are possible
along with scattered showers and a rumble of thunder.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........KJD
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......BJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1250 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.AVIATION...ADDED VCTS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT
ACADIANA TAF SITES AS ONCOMING MCS OUT OF EAST TEXAS ALTHOUGH
WEAKENING, IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OUTFLOW TO BUCKLE THE CAP
AND ALLOW CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. APPROACHING TROF TNITE SHOULD REINITIATE
CONVECTION SO WILL INCLUDE VCTS AFTER 09Z FOR ALL TERMINALS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION UNDERWAY ACROSS NE TX THIS MORNING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROF TRANSLATING THROUGH THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
DEFINITELY MADE A COME BACK WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S...THE AIR HAS THAT SWALLOW YOU FEEL TO IT WHEN YOU WALK
OUTSIDE. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAS EVERYTHING COVERED QUITE
WELL...WITH THE ONLY CHANGE THIS MORNING BEING THE INCLUSION OF
SMALL POPS ACROSS THE EAST TEXAS LAKES INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
GIVEN CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND HRRR GUIDANCE...NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THIS INITIAL ROUND OF ACTIVITY TO REACH THAT FAR
SOUTH AND/OR SEE NEW DEVELOPMENT GENERATED ALONG SOUTHWARD
PROPAGATING OUTFLOWS.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE E GULF...KEEPING
A FAIRLY LIGHT S FLOW OVER THE REGION. WINDS INLAND ARE MAINLY
CALM OR VERY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS NEAR 70S TO THE LOWER 70S
PREVAIL.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SE ACROSS KS/N OK THIS MORNING
IS PRODUCING A LARGE MCS OVER C OK. THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SSE TODAY AND ACROSS
NE TX/N LA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS
SHOW REGENERATION/CONTINUATION OF THIS COMPLEX AS IT CONTINUES SSE THIS
EVENING. WITH AMPLE INFLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT...ITS EXPECTED TO KEEP
ITS INTENSITY THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA.
FOR THIS...SPC CONTINUES THE SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSRA FOR AREAS
JUST NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THRU 12Z FRI. KEPT THE INCREASING
POP TREND BEGINNING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LAKES REGION OF SE
TX/W LA...WITH THE HIGHER POPS SPREADING SSE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF SE TX/C AND S LA BETWEEN 06-18Z FRI.
FOR THE WEEKEND...EXPECT ONLY ISO SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE DIMINISHES A BIT...AND WILL BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON
HEATING. FOR MON-WED...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD
EASTWARD FROM TX...FURTHER LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES. ALSO...EXPECT
TEMPS TO INCREASE A BIT...WITH MID/UPPER 70S FOR LOWS...AND
LOWER/MID 90S FOR HIGHS.
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 90 76 87 74 89 / 10 40 50 30 20
KBPT 90 76 87 74 88 / 10 40 50 20 20
KAEX 92 72 87 70 90 / 20 50 50 20 20
KLFT 91 75 87 73 89 / 10 30 50 30 30
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1049 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION UNDERWAY ACROSS NE TX THIS MORNING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROF TRANSLATING THROUGH THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
DEFINITELY MADE A COME BACK WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S...THE AIR HAS THAT SWALLOW YOU FEEL TO IT WHEN YOU WALK
OUTSIDE. THE INHERITED FORECAST HAS EVERYTHING COVERED QUITE
WELL...WITH THE ONLY CHANGE THIS MORNING BEING THE INCLUSION OF
SMALL POPS ACROSS THE EAST TEXAS LAKES INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
GIVEN CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND HRRR GUIDANCE...NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR THIS INITIAL ROUND OF ACTIVITY TO REACH THAT FAR
SOUTH AND/OR SEE NEW DEVELOPMENT GENERATED ALONG SOUTHWARD
PROPAGATING OUTFLOWS.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE E GULF...KEEPING
A FAIRLY LIGHT S FLOW OVER THE REGION. WINDS INLAND ARE MAINLY
CALM OR VERY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS NEAR 70S TO THE LOWER 70S
PREVAIL.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SE ACROSS KS/N OK THIS MORNING
IS PRODUCING A LARGE MCS OVER C OK. THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SSE TODAY AND ACROSS
NE TX/N LA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS
SHOW REGENERATION/CONTINUATION OF THIS COMPLEX AS IT CONTINUES SSE THIS
EVENING. WITH AMPLE INFLOW MOISTURE AND LIFT...ITS EXPECTED TO KEEP
ITS INTENSITY THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS INLAND SE TX/C LA.
FOR THIS...SPC CONTINUES THE SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSRA FOR AREAS
JUST NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THRU 12Z FRI. KEPT THE INCREASING
POP TREND BEGINNING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LAKES REGION OF SE
TX/W LA...WITH THE HIGHER POPS SPREADING SSE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF SE TX/C AND S LA BETWEEN 06-18Z FRI.
FOR THE WEEKEND...EXPECT ONLY ISO SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS MOISTURE DIMINISHES A BIT...AND WILL BE MAINLY DRIVEN BY AFTERNOON
HEATING. FOR MON-WED...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD
EASTWARD FROM TX...FURTHER LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES. ALSO...EXPECT
TEMPS TO INCREASE A BIT...WITH MID/UPPER 70S FOR LOWS...AND
LOWER/MID 90S FOR HIGHS.
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 90 76 87 74 / 10 40 50 30
KBPT 90 76 87 74 / 10 40 50 20
KAEX 92 72 87 70 / 20 50 50 20
KLFT 91 75 87 73 / 10 30 50 30
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1131 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
.AVIATION...
DISCUSSION FOR THE 12/06Z TAF FORECAST...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT
WEATHER THROUGH 12/13Z. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS
AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS. AFTER 13Z...
SCATTERED TSTMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL
ENTER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THE STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKENING...BUT WILL STILL BRING FLIGHT HAZARDS
INCLUDING SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50 KTS...SEVERE TURBULENCE AND
MARGINAL CIGS AND VSBYS. THE STORMS MAY DISSIPATE OR BECOME ISOLATED
NEAR THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE WIDESPREAD INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BRINGING FLIGHT HAZARDS TO MOST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION
THROUGH 06Z. /14/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014/
DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTION W OF I-35 CORRIDOR IN TX AND
WHETHER IT OR AFFECT THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING. 00Z NAM DID NOT
REALLY INITIALIZE WELL WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THIS ACTIVITY. LATEST
GFS IS SOMEWHAT BETTER. 00Z RUN OF THE HRRR DEPICTS THESE STORMS
MAKING A SERN TURN AND NOT AFFECTING THE CWA...WHILE AN MCS
ORGANIZES ACROSS SW KS/NW OK AND MOVES SEWD TO JUST NW OF THE AREA
BY 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR
THE HRRR. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED POPS BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
OUR FAR NW ZONES DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE...MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE OTHER GRIDS BASED ON
LATEST OBS BUT MIN TEMP FCST WAS LEFT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014/
DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW ALOFT HAS BROUGHT MILD JUNE TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES
TO THE REGION TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS IS A BIT DECEPTIVE. A
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL RIDE EWD
AROUND THE NERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AND DOWN ACROSS OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SEND AN MCS OUR WAY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE
STORMS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FINALLY MOVE E OF THE REGION FRIDAY
MORNING...DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES BY FRIDAY EVENING.
WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PD...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NEWD. SOME DIURNAL
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES ARE ON THE HORIZON AFTER FRIDAY.
TEMP-WISE...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CONTINUE TO STAY RIGHT ON-PAR WITH
SEASONAL NORMALS. RAINFALL/WET SOILS HAVE LIMITED TEMPS FROM
RATCHETING UP ABOVE NORMAL...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 69 91 72 88 70 / 10 20 60 40 10
MLU 66 90 71 87 68 / 10 20 60 50 20
DEQ 63 86 65 85 65 / 10 60 60 20 10
TXK 67 88 69 85 67 / 10 30 60 30 10
ELD 64 89 68 85 65 / 10 20 60 40 10
TYR 70 90 71 87 71 / 20 30 60 20 10
GGG 68 90 71 88 70 / 10 30 60 30 10
LFK 71 92 73 91 72 / 10 20 50 40 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1006 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN
FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
950 PM UPDATE: THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOWERS/PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
DEVELOPING AREAS OF FOG IS EXPECTED AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
OVER ERN NY IS EVER SO SLOWLY PUSHING E. THE BAND OF HEAVY RAIN
CURRENTLY ALONG THE MIDCOAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
FA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO INCR POPS
LATER TONIGHT AS THE BAND OF SHWRS NICELY DEPICTED BY RADAR WILL
MOVE THRU TOWARD MORNING. WITH MESO-LOW MOVING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS OF MAINE ATTM MADE ADJ TO WIND FCST TO REFLECT WINDS
BENDING TO NNELY TNGT BASED ON HRRR GUID...THIS VS THE SSELY WIND
THAT WAS PREV FCST. TEMPS LOOKED OK.
PREV DISC:
A LARGE AREA OF RAIN HAS SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND A
TROUGH MOVING EAST OUT OF VERMONT. HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES SO FAR
HAVE BEEN NEAR THE WARM FRONT ITSELF... WITH THE PORTLAND AREA
LIKELY RECEIVING THE HIGHEST TOTALS SO FAR... A LITTLE MORE THAN
1.5 INCHES. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA... A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING.
WHILE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGER AREA OF RAIN IN ADVANCE OF
THE TROUGH IS NOW MOVING TOWARD WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE... THIS IS
LIKELY NOT THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA. ANOTHER AREA
OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE
AND DRIFTING NORTH. AFTER FURTHER ANALYSIS... THIS IS LIKELY A
SURFACE MESOLOW WHICH HAS FORMED AND WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO
THE EAST FROM THE LOW. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PULL ADDITIONAL
RAIN INTO THE COAST... DRAWING FROM MOISTURE OFFSHORE. AS A
RESULT... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT (1.5
INCHES OR MORE) WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE COAST ESPECIALLY FROM
PORTLAND TOWARD AUGUSTA AND ROCKLAND. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA
WHICH HAS SEEN THE MOST RAIN ALREADY TODAY... SO WE WILL HAVE TO
BE EXTRA VIGILANT FOR ANY FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING WITH THIS
SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
STILL EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY
MORNING... GIVING A BREAK IN THE RAIN TO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MOST OF
WESTERN MAINE. HOWEVER... THE SURFACE COLD FRONT (CURRENTLY
SPARKING THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE) WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE... AND COULD BRING ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS
BY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES DO NOT BUDGE MUCH OVERNIGHT. IN FACT THEY MAY EVEN
RISE A BIT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
MAY BRING A BIT WARMER AIR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY BE MOVING INTO THE AREA TOMORROW.
BY MID MORNING IT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE
STATE LINE. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AFTER IT DOES
SO... THERE SHOULD BE A PRONOUNCED DRYING AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND THE SUN EVEN TRIES TO POKE OUT FROM THE CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER... IN THE 70S.
THE FRONT WILL HAVE MADE IT OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON... SO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER. TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR LOWS ON NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MODEL RUNS TRENDING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED FOR
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. DECENT 500MB RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW
SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LINGERING
CLOUDS/SHOWERS IN THE EAST IF THAT LOW DEEPENS AND LINGERS ON
SUNDAY. THE RIDGE SHOULD BRING IN SOME WARM AND FAIR WEATHER FOR
MONDAY/TUESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH ARRIVES AROUND MID WEEK AND
BRINGS A THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. WE SHOULD SHIFT IN
NW FLOW ON THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING AT THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...
IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS
PERIODS OF RAIN IMPACT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS. WHITEFIELD WILL BE
UNDER DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS AND MAY STAY VFR EXCEPT DURING THE
HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM
TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
UPDATE 445 PM: ADDED THE MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG AS WELL AS
CHANGING THE WX TYPE TO STRATIFORM TYPE PCPN IN THE FORM OF
RN/DRZL. SOME VSBYS BLO 1/2 MILE WITH THE FOG AS WARM AIR TRAVELS
OVER THE COOLER WATERS TONIGHT.
PREV DISC:
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 OR 30 KT THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 10 FT
AS WELL. WINDS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AND WAVES
SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER IN THE DAY.
LONG TERM...THE WATERS LOOK FAIRLY QUIET SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...
WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING SUB-SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2.5 INCHES EXPECTED BEFORE RAIN ENDS SATURDAY. AREAS
ALONG THE COAST HAVE SEEN THE MOST...WITH SOME 2 TO 3 INCHES
ALREADY NOTED. THIS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS OVER THE MIDCOAST AREAS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE AT MIDNIGHT IN PORTLAND IS 11.4 FEET. A SURGE OF AROUND HALF
A FOOT IS EXPECTED... WITH 5 TO 10 FT WAVES EXPECTED ON TOP OF THAT. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MINOR SPLASH OVER
POSSIBLE NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SURGE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND UPGRADE TO A
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IF NEEDED.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GLASGOW MT
950 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
SENT ANOTHER UPDATE TONIGHT NOW THAT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HAS PASSED BEYOND THE BORDERS OF OUR CWA. TRENDED
POPS TOWARD THE LATEST RADAR AND MODEL DATA PLACING A BIG HOLE OF
NO PRECIP OVER MOST OF OUR CWA TONIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER SOME OUR SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. BMICKELSON
PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...CURRENT MESOANALYSIS HAS THE
BEST INSTABILITY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA WITH THE
LI DOWN TO -6. THE ACCUMULATION OF MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR TOWARDS
THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER IS SIMILAR TO EXPECTATIONS FROM MODEL
GUIDANCE.
WESTERN US LONG WAVE TROUGH IS TRANSITING THE AREA AND WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TONIGHT. AREA OF
SOUTHWESTERLY 500MB FLOW OF OVER 50 KTS WILL BE ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW THIS EVENING AND MAY HELP DYNAMICAL FORCING. STRONG MID-
LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IN AREAS
NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...COMBINE
TO MAKE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS IN THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA WHERE A SEVERE STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING.
NON SEVERE THUNDER STORMS ARE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CWA FROM
THE WEST. HRRR HAS NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING AFTER 3PM
AND WESTERN SHOWERS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. THIS IS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE DYNAMICAL ASSISTANCE OF THE PASSING LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND FORECAST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AROUND 78
DEGREES...NEAR THE HIGHS. MARTIN
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A CLOSED LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AND TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
REPRIEVE FROM ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW AS A CLOSED LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS AND DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MONTANA.
IN THE MEANTIME...A RIDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE U.S. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A STATIC SYNOPTIC PATTERN
UNFOLDING AS THESE FEATURES MOVE VERY LITTLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND
END OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN FAVORABLE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...FREQUENT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POTENTIAL. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL BE
ABLE TO NARROW DOWN SPECIFIC TIME PERIODS A BIT BETTER AS
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVES TRANSLATING THROUGH
THE FLOW IMPROVES. ADDITIONAL CONCERNS WILL SURROUND THE PHASE
BETWEEN CONVECTION AND PLACEMENT OF INSTABILITY. SHOULD THEY
COINCIDE AT ANY GIVEN TIME THE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS. THIS MAY INDEED BE THE CASE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. MALIAWCO
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A CONFUSED AND
DISORGANIZED LACK OF CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
WHILE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC CONSENSUS IS SOMEWHAT ACCEPTABLE AND
BETTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE REVEALED...THERE STILL REMAIN
ENOUGH SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE DIFFERENCES TO KEEP FORECAST
CONFIDENCE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF RESPITE
BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE
EVOLUTION...TIMING...AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH ARRIVES FROM THE CANADIAN WEST COAST...MOVES OUR
PACIFIC NW STATES...EXPANDS OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN STATES
REGION...AND EVENTUALLY EJECTS NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION. WITH THAT IN MIND...THIS WILL PROVE TO BE OVERALL A VERY
SLOW-MOVING STORM SYSTEM. BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW SEVERAL PERIODS
OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT DIFFER
GREATLY REGARDING AMOUNTS AND TIMING.
OF INTEREST WILL BE SOME PERIODS OF HEIGHTENED INSTABILITY TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH OF COURSE STILL NEEDS TO BE WORKED
OUT BEFORE ANY CONCLUSIONS FOR THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY CAN BE MADE
THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. BMICKELSON
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.
SYNOPSIS: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE TERMINAL PERIOD.
IMPACTS: ISOLATED OFF AND ON SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OF AROUND 10 KTS CONTINUING BEHIND
THE FRONT AND BROKEN CEILINGS DOWN TO 5000 FT AGL. PROTON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1145 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2014
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Have removed strong wording regarding
thunderstorms this evening for the western portion of the county
warning area. GFS and NAM indicate convective development after 00z
but severe parameters do not appear overly impressive. Also, HRRR
and RUC analysis do not show significant thunderstorm development or
coverage after 00z. Awaiting SPC update this morning but their
earlier update dropped the `See Text` message that was there
earlier. Temperatures look on track.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over southwest
Montana after 21z then spread northeast into the evening. These
thunderstorms are expected to affect KHLN and possibly KGTF/KLWT but
should stay north of KBZN and not reach KHVR. Other thunderstorms
could affect KCTB. The thunderstorms are expected to weaken by
mid-evening. There will be local wind gusts to 40 knots with the
thunderstorms with a threat of brief MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy
rain. Small hail could also occur. Then later this evening into
early Friday morning showers and possibly thunderstorms will affect
the area from the northern Rocky Mountain Front through KCTB and
possibly as far east as KHVR. There will be at least a brief period
of heavy rain and MVFR/IFR conditions. Guidance suggests MVFR
ceilings could become widespread from the northern Rocky Mountain
Front to east of KCTB by Friday morning with mountains becoming
obscured. Farther south a cold front will move east through the
forecast area late tonight and Friday morning. Expect scattered
showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms with the front and
conditions should generally be VFR. Blank
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 405 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2014
Today through Saturday...A progressive pattern aloft will
transition the forecast area from generally quiet and warm today
to cooler and unsettled on Saturday. Main driving force in weather
through the short term period is a relatively strong trough that
is currently off the Pacific Northwest coast. This system will
move inland today bringing isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms to the western mountains by late afternoon.
Precipitation coverage becomes widespread over the Northern Rocky
Mountain Front and spreads out over the adjacent plains of my
northwest forecast zones overnight. There is also a chance that an
isolated storm or two could become borderline severe with large
hail and strong winds during the early evening hours. Latest
models suggests that the best location for any strong to severe
storms will remain west of a line from western Hill County
southwest through Great Falls to Butte. For Friday through
Saturday, models in good agreement moving the upper trough over
the Northern Rockies and transitioning to a positive tilt trough
extending northeastward into Saskatchewan and Manitoba. During
this time frame temperatures will fall below seasonal averages
with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected each
period. mpj
Saturday night through Thursday...An interesting divergence in model
solutions for the long term as models continue to struggle with the
progression of a low pressure disturbance transitioning from the
Gulf of Alaska to the Pacific Northwest. GFS solution tries restart
the progressive zonal flow and quickly propels the disturbance out
of the area by Tuesday evening. The ECMWF and GEM both retrograde
and deepen the low over the rocky mountains and allow for it to
produce significantly more precipitation over the region through the
bulk of the long term. There is some credence for the GFS solution
as the ECMWF ensemble suite does also move the system out faster
than the operation model, but still slower than the GFS. Have leaned
towards the cooler and wetter solution of the ECMWF, however did
reduce pops slightly below model solutions due to the lack of
confidence. Regardless of the inconsistencies in the extreme long
term, this weekend does look to be unsettled as all models continue
to have diffluent flow and multiple impulses move across the area
through Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to remain near or below
seasonal averages through the extended. Suk
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 75 46 69 42 / 10 30 30 30
CTB 71 45 63 40 / 10 60 50 30
HLN 80 49 71 43 / 20 30 30 30
BZN 79 44 71 40 / 10 20 60 60
WEY 73 37 65 30 / 10 10 40 40
DLN 79 45 68 39 / 20 20 50 50
HVR 74 46 72 43 / 10 40 40 30
LWT 69 44 67 40 / 10 20 40 50
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls
www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.GreatFalls.gov
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREAT FALLS MT
1010 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
Update forthcoming. Have removed strong wording regarding
thunderstorms this evening for the western portion of the county
warning area. GFS and NAM indicate convective development after 00z
but severe parameters do not appear overly impressive. Also, HRRR
and RUC analysis do not show significant thunderstorm development or
coverage after 00z. Awaiting SPC update this morning but their
earlier update dropped the `See Text` message that was there
earlier. Temperatures look on track.
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z.
VFR conditions will prevail through the bulk of the forecast
period..however convection is expected to initiate after 00z over
the area with some strong/severe thunderstorms possible across
Central and North Central Montana. Showers will continue to move
into the area with decent instability aloft overnight. Thunderstorm
threat should diminish late into the evening hours, however
scattered showers will continue through the remainder of period.
Brief intrusion below VFR conditions are expected near showers and
thunderstorms. Suk
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 405 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2014
Today through Saturday...A progressive pattern aloft will
transition the forecast area from generally quiet and warm today
to cooler and unsettled on Saturday. Main driving force in weather
through the short term period is a relatively strong trough that
is currently off the Pacific Northwest coast. This system will
move inland today bringing isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms to the western mountains by late afternoon.
Precipitation coverage becomes widespread over the Northern Rocky
Mountain Front and spreads out over the adjacent plains of my
northwest forecast zones overnight. There is also a chance that an
isolated storm or two could become borderline severe with large
hail and strong winds during the early evening hours. Latest
models suggests that the best location for any strong to severe
storms will remain west of a line from western Hill County
southwest through Great Falls to Butte. For Friday through
Saturday, models in good agreement moving the upper trough over
the Northern Rockies and transitioning to a positive tilt trough
extending northeastward into Saskatchewan and Manitoba. During
this time frame temperatures will fall below seasonal averages
with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected each
period. mpj
Saturday night through Thursday...An interesting divergence in model
solutions for the long term as models continue to struggle with the
progression of a low pressure disturbance transitioning from the
Gulf of Alaska to the Pacific Northwest. GFS solution tries restart
the progressive zonal flow and quickly propels the disturbance out
of the area by Tuesday evening. The ECMWF and GEM both retrograde
and deepen the low over the rocky mountains and allow for it to
produce significantly more precipitation over the region through the
bulk of the long term. There is some credence for the GFS solution
as the ECMWF ensemble suite does also move the system out faster
than the operation model, but still slower than the GFS. Have leaned
towards the cooler and wetter solution of the ECMWF, however did
reduce pops slightly below model solutions due to the lack of
confidence. Regardless of the inconsistencies in the extreme long
term, this weekend does look to be unsettled as all models continue
to have diffluent flow and multiple impulses move across the area
through Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to remain near or below
seasonal averages through the extended. Suk
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 75 46 69 42 / 10 30 30 30
CTB 71 45 63 40 / 10 60 50 30
HLN 80 49 71 43 / 20 30 30 30
BZN 79 44 71 40 / 10 20 60 60
WEY 73 37 65 30 / 10 10 40 40
DLN 79 45 68 39 / 20 20 50 50
HVR 74 46 72 43 / 10 40 40 30
LWT 69 44 67 40 / 10 20 40 50
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
625 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
SEVERE WEATHER IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.
UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE AS
HIGH AS AROUND 100 METERS AT 500 MB. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAS A 105
KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. THERMAL TROUGH AT 700 MB
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. 850 MB MOISTURE WAS LACKING LOCALLY...BUT WILL BE
RETURNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP DEWPOINTS OF 16 C OR MORE THAT WERE
OVER WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION...WE COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY LINGER OR WE MAY SEE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FROM 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
THAT IS NOT TO SAY SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT POSSIBLE BEFORE OR AFTER
THAT...BUT THAT IS THE MAIN WINDOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MAY BECOME TOO WARM FOR CONVECTION BEFORE EARLY
EVENING...WITH 12Z NAM INCREASING 700 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE 11-
14C RANGE AT 21Z. BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE CAP WILL DECREASE OR
BREAK BY 00Z OR SOONER. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO KEEP
OUR AREA CAPPED UNTIL CLOSER TO 6 OR 7 PM BUT THOSE WERE NOT FAVORED
AT THIS TIME. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE HRRR MODEL DOES
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT HAS DONE A GOOD JOB FOR THE MOST PART ON
SOME OF OUR RECENT SEVERE EVENTS.
THE FOCUS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/COLD
FRONT PUSHING EAST AND ALSO NEAR AND EAST OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
MAIN DRY LINE SHOULD BE FARTHER SOUTH IN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME HIGHLY UNSTABLE...WITH ML CAPE VALUES
POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR FROM 30-50
KNOTS. SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY MERGE OR
COMBINE INTO ONE OR MORE COMPLEXES...WITH THREAT GRADUALLY SHIFTING
MORE TOWARD WIND AND HEAVY RAIN AFTER 10 PM. TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
HIGHEST NEAR ANY BOUNDARIES AND JUST EAST OR NORTHEAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
FOR SATURDAY...WITH GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
FOR DEEP MIXING...DECIDED TO BUMP HIGHS UP A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. IF CLOUD COVER AND/OR PCPN COVERAGE IS GREATER THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THIS COULD NEGATIVELY AFFECT HIGHS.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD END SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND INSTABILITY DROPS OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY. AFTER THE EARLY MORNING THREAT OF STORMS SUNDAY...
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...WE EXPECT THE REST OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT TO BE DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH
RANGING TO MID 80S SOUTH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY START TO RETURN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE SO ON MONDAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE MONDAY...BUT WITH A MUCH LOWER THREAT THAN FOR SATURDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL
AMPLIFY...BUT WITH LITTLE PROGRESSION THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL
PCPN CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED PDS PRETTY MUCH REVOLVING AROUND
BNDRY AND MOISTURE INTERACTION AS NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THRU. BEGINNING MON NIGHT...WARMER FRONT/MID LYR
AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ASSOC WITH SFC LOW NEAR THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
WILL LIFT THRU THE CWA AND BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM ACTIVITY THRU THE
NIGHT. WITH AN OPEN GULF...QUITE GENEROUS LLVL MOISTURE ADV WILL
ENSURE A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE PER KI VALUES OF
40. IN ADDITION...GIVEN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR PCPN EFFICIENCY THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
HIGH. ON TUES CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE GETS DISPLACED EWD AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN. ALL THIS IN RESPONSE TO DEEP TROF DIGGING OVER THE
WRN CONUS.
LATE NEXT WEEK THEN...PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH MODELS SHOWING THE WRN CONUS TROF TAKING ON A NEG TILT AS IT
CROSSES THE ROCKIES. AS SFC LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING DPVA...MODELS PROG A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD
FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE NOTICEABLE
DIFFERENCES BTWN THE ECM AND GFS...HAVE DECIDED TO TRIMS POPS DOWN
JUST A BIT. &&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
CURRENT OBS SHOWING DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER ERN WY WITH ASSOC
BNDRY DOWN ALONG THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. INITIAL ISSUE IS GUSTY
WINDS THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
WILL REMAIN TIGHT OVER ERN NEB THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE FCST
PD...WITH SLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20KT. BY 12Z SAT
MORNING...EXPECT WARM FRONT TO BEGIN CROSSING INTO ERN NEB. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR TSR18A DEVELOPMENT...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES OF
AREAL COVERAGE...HAVE DECIDED TO NOT MENTION IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
HOWEVER...MAY BE A BRIEF PD OF MVFR CIGS AT KOFK BTWN 12Z-15Z SAT
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT WILL BRING A SMALL
THUNDERSTORM RISK TO ERN NEBRASKA TOWARD DAYBREAK THROUGH SAT
MORNING AS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RETURN TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CHANCES APPEARED TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN 00Z TAF
FORECASTS. IF SFC WINDS BACK OFF A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED...WIND
SHEAR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AND THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH
THE EVENING FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES/INCLUSION IN 06Z FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE TSTM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM LATE SAT AFTN INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE PUSHES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION. A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE CONTAINING
GREATER THAN 50KT WIND GUSTS. TSTM CHANCES INCREASE ENOUGH AT
NORFOLK TO INCLUDE A PROB30 IN THE LATE AFTN. BULK OF ACTIVITY AT
LINCOLN AND OMAHA SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 15/00Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1204 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
CLEARING IS IN PROGRESS...BUT AS THE WRF GOES-R SIMULATED FOG
PRODUCT SUGGESTED...MVFR STRATUS HAS EXPANDED ACROSS N-CNTRL NEB
AND WAS DROPPING S INTO THE FCST AREA. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT
AND MIX OUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES UNSTABLE THIS MORNING
/15Z-16Z/. AFTER VIEWING THE WRF GOES-R SIMULATED IR IMAGERY...
THE SKY FCST WAS LEFT AS IS FROM 400 AM. W OF HWY 281 WILL
PROBABLY SEE A FEW SMALL PATCHES OF 10K FT ALTOCU AND PATCHY
CIRROSTRATUS. M/SUNNY SHOULD DO JUST FINE.
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
...CLEARING AND VERY COMFORTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING...
ALOFT: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING THE
DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING...HEADED FOR THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
LEAVE THE CNTRL PLAINS IN SUBSIDENT NW FLOW TODAY. THE WESTERLIES
ARE MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONT E AND ARRIVE OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED
LOW THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW.
SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE TSTMS TO THE SE HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LAST EVENING WAS JUST S AND E OF THE REGION...DRAPED
FROM IA-KS-OK-TX. HIGH PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE
FRONT WILL CONT MOVING AWAY AS THE HIGH PRESSES SE TO BE LOCATED
OVER IA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW PRES WILL
ORGANIZE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND IT WILL BE ALONG THE WY-MT
BORDER BY 12Z/FRI... WITH A WARM FRONT POISED JUST TO THE W OF THE
FCST AREA.
EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDY WITH THICK ANVIL CIRROSTRATUS FROM THE
MCS OVER KS/OK...BUT IT IS HEADING E AND WE WILL SEE A CLEARING
TREND FROM W-E THRU MID-MORNING. THE LAST OF THE SHWR ACTIVITY DIED
OVER THAYER COUNTY AT 335 AM. EXPECT THE REST OF THE AM TO BE DRY.
WE HAVE NOTED SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MOVING OUT OF SD INTO NRN
NEB AND IT HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH THE NRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA.
THE 06Z 3KM RAP SUGGESTS ITS EXPANSION THRU THE PREDAWN HRS AND
THIS MAY BE A MINOR AVIATION ISSUE TO ADDRESS.
TODAY: GENERALLY SUNNY. ANY AREAS LEFT WITH HIGH CLOUDS AT
SUNRISE WILL SEE CLEARING THIS MORNING. WE WILL HAVE TO MAKE SOME
VERY SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY FCST AS WE SEE HOW
IT EVOLVES ON SATELLITE.
THE 18Z/00Z NAM VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A FEW MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD DRIFT THRU. THE EC/GEM DO NOT HAVE IT AND THE GFS
KEEPS THEM W OF THE FCST AREA. EVEN IN QUIET WX THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY! SATELLITE AND SFC OBS DO SHOW SOME 7-10K FT CLOUDS
OVER COLORADO SPREADING INTO THE PANHANDLE. IF SOME OF THIS HOLDS
TOGETHER AS THE NAM INDICATES...WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF P/CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY.
WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE GOES-R SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
THE NSSL-WRF WHICH BECOMES AVAILABLE IN A COUPLE HRS. THIS IMAGERY
FROM THE 4KM NAM SHOWS THESE CLOUDS COULD APPROACH THE WRN FRINGE
OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING...BUT REMAIN TO THE W.
THE RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILE HAS 29-32 KTS AS LOW AS 400 FT.
INITIAL EXPANSION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX THIS DOWN THIS
MORNING AND WE EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. ONCE WE GET PAST
NOON...WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
TONIGHT: A GREAT NIGHT FOR OPENING UP THE WINDOWS. BASICALLY
CLEAR AND ON THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80. TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 40S N OF HWY 92. UPR 40S-LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. THESE
TEMPS WILL BE 10F COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE. THE LAST TIME
LOWS WERE THIS COOL WAS BACK ON MAY 18TH.
POST-MORTEM: LAST EVENING EVOLVED VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED.
GOOD TO MAKE MENTAL NOTES OF HOW THE HI-RES MODELS WITH EXPLICIT
CONVECTION PERFORMED. THIS WAS MAINLY A HAIL EVENT FROM MULTI-
CELL CLUSTERS THAT EXHIBITED SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AT TIMES.
THE LARGEST HAIL WAS THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS NEAR RED CLOUD.
PLEASE SEE OUR PRELIM SUMMARY LSR FOR ALL THE DETAILS.
PLEASE TWEET US YOUR PHOTOS OF HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE OR POST THEM TO
OUR FACEBOOK PAGE IF YOU HAVENT DONE SO ALREADY. THANK YOU VERY
MUCH.
PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR ANALYSIS OF RECENT RAINFALL
AND ON-GOING OR POTENTIAL FLOOD THREATS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
PER THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LITERALLY EVERY SINGLE 12-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY CONTAINS AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE (IF NOT HIGHER CHANCES) OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AT LEAST
SOME PORTION OF THE CWA. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE TWO MAIN POINTS
THAT NEED TO BE MADE RIGHT OFF THE TOP: FIRST OF ALL...BY FAR AND
AWAY THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO FOCUS ON THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME...AND THERE ARE INCREASING CONCERNS FOR SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL. ALONG THESE LINES...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INTRODUCED
A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK AREA TO PART OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS DAY 3
OUTLOOK TECHNICALLY ONLY HIGHLIGHTS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF
THE CWA...THIS FORECASTER IS OF THE OPINION THAT ESSENTIALLY THE
ENTIRE CWA SHOULD CONSIDER ITSELF TO BE IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS POINT...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS
SLIGHT RISK EXPANDED IN AREA AS IT GETS INTO THE DAY 2 AND
EVENTUALLY DAY 1 TIME FRAME. THE SECOND MAIN POINT TO EMPHASIZE
FOR THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS THAT THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EVEN IN THE LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ESPECIALLY BY THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...AND THE PLACEMENT
AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS DURING THESE FINAL 3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST
ARE CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF CHANGE. GIVEN THIS INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY...MOST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME PERIODS ARE NO
HIGHER THAN 20S-30S...AND ALTHOUGH HAVE MAINTAINED SOME MODESTLY
HIGHER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY...HAVE TRIMMED OUT THE
MENTION OF 50 POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT LEAST FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURE WISE...MADE FAIRLY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MAJORITY OF THIS
6-DAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AIMED TO TOP OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 80S ON MOST DAYS. HOWEVER...PROBABLY THE MOST
CHALLENGING HIGH TEMP FORECAST AT THIS POINT IS SATURDAY...WHICH
ALSO HAS A CHANCE AT BEING THE OVERALL WARMEST DAY. ALTHOUGH THE
CURRENT FORECAST NUDGED UP HIGHS GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES...GETTING
MORE OF THE CWA INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AND EVEN LOW 90S
SOUTHWEST...THERE COULD EASILY BE ROOM FOR FUTURE UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS...AS SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE LATEST 06Z NAM SUGGEST THAT
MUCH OF THE CWA COULD FLIRT WITH LOW-90S...WITH SOUTHWEST AREAS
POTENTIALLY EVEN UPPER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES ON MOST NIGHTS ARE
AIMED IN THE SEASONABLY-TYPICAL UPPER 50S-MID 60S RANGE...SO NOT
FORESEEING ANY BIG SURPRISES HERE.
AS FOR NON-THUNDERSTORM RELATED POTENTIAL HAZARDS...ITS BEEN AWHILE
SINCE FORECAST SUSTAINED SPEEDS HAVE REALLY COME CLOSE TO SOLIDLY
APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30+ MPH. AND ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DOES NOT ADVERTISE ANY ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS...ITS AT LEAST
LOOKING LIKE MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA COULD AT LEAST APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA ON FRIDAY...WHILE MAINLY PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWA COULD
APPROACH IT ON SATURDAY. ON BOTH DAYS...THESE ENHANCED WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY...IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
GETTING INTO A BIT MORE DETAIL AND GENERALLY TAKING IT IN 24-48 HOUR
BLOCKS...
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN DRY
CONDITIONS CWA-WIDE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AND THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...AND IN RESPONSE SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE WEST WILL PROMOTE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS. FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND 20 MPH IN
EASTERN ZONES AND MORE SO 25-30 MPH IN THE WEST (WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OF COURSE). ALREADY BY FRIDAY NIGHT...QUESTIONS ABOUT SHOWER/STORM
POTENTIAL ARISE...AS SOME MODELS ARE BONE DRY WHILE OTHERS GENERATE
AT LEAST ISOLATED MAINLY LATE NIGHT CONVECTION WITHIN THE AXIS OF A
VERY STRONG 50+KT LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT AT 850 MILLIBARS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH WELL OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT AS
EVIDENT BY 700MB TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 12-14C RANGE. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT SHAKY...OPTED TO STAY THE COURSE AND LEAVE THE
EVENING PERIOD VOID OF POPS...WHILE BLANKETING MOST OF THE CWA WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES DURING THE POST-MIDNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS...A ROGUE STRONG STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR...AND ITS ALSO NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT MORE ROBUST EVENING CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF
THE CWA TRIES TO SURVIVE ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO AT LEAST WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED OFF THE TOP THIS 24-HOUR
PERIOD LIKELY COMMANDS THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST ATTENTION FOR THE
SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. COMPARED TO THE SEVERE EVENT
THAT JUST OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...THIS UPCOMING SATURDAY SETUP LOOKS
TO BE MORE POTENT WITH A GREATER COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR.
ALTHOUGH MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS ARE LIKELY OVER-DOING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE A BIT...WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT THERE TO BE AT LEAST 2000
J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 50-60KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN EASTERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE DEPARTING FRI NIGHT CONVECTION...THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CAPPED AS THE POTENT MID/UPPER WAVE SLIDES
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AM EXPECTING RATHER VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST INITIALLY LIKELY TIED TO A
FAIRLY NARROW ZONE ALONG THE INVADING SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
LIKELY TO RESIDE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
GIVEN THE CAPE/SHEAR COMBO...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAIRLY RIPE
FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A WIND THREAT POSSIBLY ENHANCED
BY UPSCALE GROWTH DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING A NOTABLE TORNADO THREAT...CANNOT COMPLETELY DISMISS THIS
POSSIBILITY EITHER ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MOST FAVORABLE THE LONGEST. HYDRO-
WISE...COULD EASILY SEE A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA RECEIVING A QUICK 1-
2 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER...BUT FORTUNATELY A GENERALLY DRY 48
HOURS LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT WILL HOPEFULLY MITIGATE ANY MORE THAN
LOCALIZED/MINOR FLOODING ISSUES FOR THE MOST PART. POPS FOR MOST
OF THE CWA ARE STILL IN THE LIKELY 60 RANGE FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT FURTHER INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN
SOME AREAS.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...IN REALITY THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD STAY
DRY/STORM-FREE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS 24 HOURS...BUT AT LEAST
FOR NOW HAVE LINGERED A SLIGHT POP IN FAR EASTERN ZONES DURING THE
MORNING JUST IN CASE A LITTLE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY STILL
LINGERS...AND HAVE ALSO KEPT SLIGHT POPS FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST
1/3 OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY PER THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE PRIMARY MODELS SUCH AS THE
ECMWF/GFS START TO INCREASINGLY DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF GENERALLY
KEEPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
LOCAL FLOW MORE QUASI-ZONAL WITH VARIOUS PASSING LOW-AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCES. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS
TIME...UNCERTAINTY IS FAR TOO HIGH TO EVEN PINPOINT A TIME FRAME
WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE. POPS ARE LARGELY A MULTI-MODEL BLEND WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS...AND FOR NOW THE HIGHEST 40 POPS ARE
FOCUSED ON MONDAY DAYTIME BUT ITS NO GUARANTEE TO STAY THAT WAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MID-UPPER FLOW AND EVEN SURFACE
PATTERNS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS GET INCREDIBLY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE
ANOTHER...WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A VERY WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
BREEZES...WHILE THE GFS IS COOLER BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
INTERESTINGLY...BOTH MODELS ARE GENERALLY AGREEING ON DRY CONDITIONS
DURING THIS TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH LOW-END 20-
30 POPS UNTIL THINGS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
...CLEARING AND VERY COMFORTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING...
ALOFT: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING THE
DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING...HEADED FOR THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
LEAVE THE CNTRL PLAINS IN SUBSIDENT NW FLOW TODAY. THE WESTERLIES
ARE MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONT E AND ARRIVE OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED
LOW THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW.
SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE TSTMS TO THE SE HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LAST EVENING WAS JUST S AND E OF THE REGION...DRAPED
FROM IA-KS-OK-TX. HIGH PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE
FRONT WILL CONT MOVING AWAY AS THE HIGH PRESSES SE TO BE LOCATED
OVER IA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW PRES WILL
ORGANIZE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND IT WILL BE ALONG THE WY-MT
BORDER BY 12Z/FRI... WITH A WARM FRONT POISED JUST TO THE W OF THE
FCST AREA.
EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDY WITH THICK ANVIL CIRROSTRATUS FROM THE
MCS OVER KS/OK...BUT IT IS HEADING E AND WE WILL SEE A CLEARING
TREND FROM W-E THRU MID-MORNING. THE LAST OF THE SHWR ACTIVITY DIED
OVER THAYER COUNTY AT 335 AM. EXPECT THE REST OF THE AM TO BE DRY.
WE HAVE NOTED SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MOVING OUT OF SD INTO NRN
NEB AND IT HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH THE NRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA.
THE 06Z 3KM RAP SUGGESTS ITS EXPANSION THRU THE PREDAWN HRS AND
THIS MAY BE A MINOR AVIATION ISSUE TO ADDRESS.
TODAY: GENERALLY SUNNY. ANY AREAS LEFT WITH HIGH CLOUDS AT
SUNRISE WILL SEE CLEARING THIS MORNING. WE WILL HAVE TO MAKE SOME
VERY SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY FCST AS WE SEE HOW
IT EVOLVES ON SATELLITE.
THE 18Z/00Z NAM VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A FEW MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD DRIFT THRU. THE EC/GEM DO NOT HAVE IT AND THE GFS
KEEPS THEM W OF THE FCST AREA. EVEN IN QUIET WX THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY! SATELLITE AND SFC OBS DO SHOW SOME 7-10K FT CLOUDS
OVER COLORADO SPREADING INTO THE PANHANDLE. IF SOME OF THIS HOLDS
TOGETHER AS THE NAM INDICATES...WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF P/CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY.
WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE GOES-R SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
THE NSSL-WRF WHICH BECOMES AVAILABLE IN A COUPLE HRS. THIS IMAGERY
FROM THE 4KM NAM SHOWS THESE CLOUDS COULD APPROACH THE WRN FRINGE
OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING...BUT REMAIN TO THE W.
THE RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILE HAS 29-32 KTS AS LOW AS 400 FT.
INITIAL EXPANSION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX THIS DOWN THIS
MORNING AND WE EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. ONCE WE GET PAST
NOON...WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
TONIGHT: A GREAT NIGHT FOR OPENING UP THE WINDOWS. BASICALLY
CLEAR AND ON THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80. TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 40S N OF HWY 92. UPR 40S-LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. THESE
TEMPS WILL BE 10F COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE. THE LAST TIME
LOWS WERE THIS COOL WAS BACK ON MAY 18TH.
POST-MORTEM: LAST EVENING EVOLVED VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED.
GOOD TO MAKE MENTAL NOTES OF HOW THE HI-RES MODELS WITH EXPLICIT
CONVECTION PERFORMED. THIS WAS MAINLY A HAIL EVENT FROM MULTI-
CELL CLUSTERS THAT EXHIBITED SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AT TIMES.
THE LARGEST HAIL WAS THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS NEAR RED CLOUD.
PLEASE SEE OUR PRELIM SUMMARY LSR FOR ALL THE DETAILS.
PLEASE TWEET US YOUR PHOTOS OF HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE OR POST THEM TO
OUR FACEBOOK PAGE IF YOU HAVENT DONE SO ALREADY. THANK YOU VERY
MUCH.
PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR ANALYSIS OF RECENT RAINFALL
AND ON-GOING OR POTENTIAL FLOOD THREATS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
PER THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LITERALLY EVERY SINGLE 12-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY CONTAINS AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE (IF NOT HIGHER CHANCES) OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AT LEAST
SOME PORTION OF THE CWA. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE TWO MAIN POINTS
THAT NEED TO BE MADE RIGHT OFF THE TOP: FIRST OF ALL...BY FAR AND
AWAY THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO FOCUS ON THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME...AND THERE ARE INCREASING CONCERNS FOR SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL. ALONG THESE LINES...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INTRODUCED
A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK AREA TO PART OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS DAY 3
OUTLOOK TECHNICALLY ONLY HIGHLIGHTS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF
THE CWA...THIS FORECASTER IS OF THE OPINION THAT ESSENTIALLY THE
ENTIRE CWA SHOULD CONSIDER ITSELF TO BE IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS POINT...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS
SLIGHT RISK EXPANDED IN AREA AS IT GETS INTO THE DAY 2 AND
EVENTUALLY DAY 1 TIME FRAME. THE SECOND MAIN POINT TO EMPHASIZE
FOR THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS THAT THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EVEN IN THE LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ESPECIALLY BY THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...AND THE PLACEMENT
AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS DURING THESE FINAL 3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST
ARE CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF CHANGE. GIVEN THIS INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY...MOST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME PERIODS ARE NO
HIGHER THAN 20S-30S...AND ALTHOUGH HAVE MAINTAINED SOME MODESTLY
HIGHER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY...HAVE TRIMMED OUT THE
MENTION OF 50 POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT LEAST FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURE WISE...MADE FAIRLY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MAJORITY OF THIS
6-DAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AIMED TO TOP OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 80S ON MOST DAYS. HOWEVER...PROBABLY THE MOST
CHALLENGING HIGH TEMP FORECAST AT THIS POINT IS SATURDAY...WHICH
ALSO HAS A CHANCE AT BEING THE OVERALL WARMEST DAY. ALTHOUGH THE
CURRENT FORECAST NUDGED UP HIGHS GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES...GETTING
MORE OF THE CWA INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AND EVEN LOW 90S
SOUTHWEST...THERE COULD EASILY BE ROOM FOR FUTURE UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS...AS SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE LATEST 06Z NAM SUGGEST THAT
MUCH OF THE CWA COULD FLIRT WITH LOW-90S...WITH SOUTHWEST AREAS
POTENTIALLY EVEN UPPER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES ON MOST NIGHTS ARE
AIMED IN THE SEASONABLY-TYPICAL UPPER 50S-MID 60S RANGE...SO NOT
FORESEEING ANY BIG SURPRISES HERE.
AS FOR NON-THUNDERSTORM RELATED POTENTIAL HAZARDS...ITS BEEN AWHILE
SINCE FORECAST SUSTAINED SPEEDS HAVE REALLY COME CLOSE TO SOLIDLY
APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30+ MPH. AND ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DOES NOT ADVERTISE ANY ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS...ITS AT LEAST
LOOKING LIKE MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA COULD AT LEAST APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA ON FRIDAY...WHILE MAINLY PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWA COULD
APPROACH IT ON SATURDAY. ON BOTH DAYS...THESE ENHANCED WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY...IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
GETTING INTO A BIT MORE DETAIL AND GENERALLY TAKING IT IN 24-48 HOUR
BLOCKS...
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN DRY
CONDITIONS CWA-WIDE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AND THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...AND IN RESPONSE SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE WEST WILL PROMOTE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS. FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND 20 MPH IN
EASTERN ZONES AND MORE SO 25-30 MPH IN THE WEST (WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OF COURSE). ALREADY BY FRIDAY NIGHT...QUESTIONS ABOUT SHOWER/STORM
POTENTIAL ARISE...AS SOME MODELS ARE BONE DRY WHILE OTHERS GENERATE
AT LEAST ISOLATED MAINLY LATE NIGHT CONVECTION WITHIN THE AXIS OF A
VERY STRONG 50+KT LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT AT 850 MILLIBARS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH WELL OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT AS
EVIDENT BY 700MB TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 12-14C RANGE. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT SHAKY...OPTED TO STAY THE COURSE AND LEAVE THE
EVENING PERIOD VOID OF POPS...WHILE BLANKETING MOST OF THE CWA WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES DURING THE POST-MIDNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS...A ROGUE STRONG STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR...AND ITS ALSO NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT MORE ROBUST EVENING CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF
THE CWA TRIES TO SURVIVE ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO AT LEAST WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED OFF THE TOP THIS 24-HOUR
PERIOD LIKELY COMMANDS THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST ATTENTION FOR THE
SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. COMPARED TO THE SEVERE EVENT
THAT JUST OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...THIS UPCOMING SATURDAY SETUP LOOKS
TO BE MORE POTENT WITH A GREATER COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR.
ALTHOUGH MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS ARE LIKELY OVER-DOING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE A BIT...WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT THERE TO BE AT LEAST 2000
J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 50-60KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN EASTERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE DEPARTING FRI NIGHT CONVECTION...THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CAPPED AS THE POTENT MID/UPPER WAVE SLIDES
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AM EXPECTING RATHER VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST INITIALLY LIKELY TIED TO A
FAIRLY NARROW ZONE ALONG THE INVADING SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
LIKELY TO RESIDE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
GIVEN THE CAPE/SHEAR COMBO...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAIRLY RIPE
FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A WIND THREAT POSSIBLY ENHANCED
BY UPSCALE GROWTH DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING A NOTABLE TORNADO THREAT...CANNOT COMPLETELY DISMISS THIS
POSSIBILITY EITHER ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MOST FAVORABLE THE LONGEST. HYDRO-
WISE...COULD EASILY SEE A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA RECEIVING A QUICK 1-
2 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER...BUT FORTUNATELY A GENERALLY DRY 48
HOURS LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT WILL HOPEFULLY MITIGATE ANY MORE THAN
LOCALIZED/MINOR FLOODING ISSUES FOR THE MOST PART. POPS FOR MOST
OF THE CWA ARE STILL IN THE LIKELY 60 RANGE FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT FURTHER INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN
SOME AREAS.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...IN REALITY THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD STAY
DRY/STORM-FREE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS 24 HOURS...BUT AT LEAST
FOR NOW HAVE LINGERED A SLIGHT POP IN FAR EASTERN ZONES DURING THE
MORNING JUST IN CASE A LITTLE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY STILL
LINGERS...AND HAVE ALSO KEPT SLIGHT POPS FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST
1/3 OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY PER THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE PRIMARY MODELS SUCH AS THE
ECMWF/GFS START TO INCREASINGLY DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF GENERALLY
KEEPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
LOCAL FLOW MORE QUASI-ZONAL WITH VARIOUS PASSING LOW-AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCES. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS
TIME...UNCERTAINTY IS FAR TOO HIGH TO EVEN PINPOINT A TIME FRAME
WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE. POPS ARE LARGELY A MULTI-MODEL BLEND WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS...AND FOR NOW THE HIGHEST 40 POPS ARE
FOCUSED ON MONDAY DAYTIME BUT ITS NO GUARANTEE TO STAY THAT WAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MID-UPPER FLOW AND EVEN SURFACE
PATTERNS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS GET INCREDIBLY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE
ANOTHER...WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A VERY WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
BREEZES...WHILE THE GFS IS COOLER BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
INTERESTINGLY...BOTH MODELS ARE GENERALLY AGREEING ON DRY CONDITIONS
DURING THIS TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH LOW-END 20-
30 POPS UNTIL THINGS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OCCASIONAL CLOUDS NEAR 4000FT AGL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY STARTING AROUND
14Z. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 14KTS WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO
19KTS...TO START THE TAF PERIOD...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE WIND WILL THEN BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED FROM
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
RECENT RAINFALL: AS ANTICIPATED LAST EVENINGS STORMS DEVELOPED
PRIMARILY S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF
BENEFICIAL RAIN WAS NARROW AND STRETCHED ACROSS ROOKS-OSBORNE-
JEWELL COUNTIES. LOOKING AT ESTIMATED RAINFALL FOR THE PAST 4
WEEKS...THE AREA FROM THE TRI-CITIES SE TO HEBRON AND NE TO
COLUMBUS HAS SEEN A RAINFALL DEFICIT OF 0.5 TO 3 INCHES. THE SW
HALF OF THE FCST AREA /S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES/ HAS SEEN A 2-6
INCH SURPLUS OR 125-200% OF NORMAL.
UPSTREAM OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE AND THE SANDHILLS...RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 2 WKS HAS BEEN 200-600% OF NORMAL. THAT HAS
RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE PLATTE RVR SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE MONTH. THE FLOOD WARNING CONTS FOR WRN DAWSON
COUNTY FOR MINOR FLOODING AROUND GOTHENBURG. FCSTS INDICATE THAT
BOTH THE N AND S BRANCHES AT COZAD WILL APPROACH OR WERE ALREADY
NEAR ACTION STAGE. KEARNEY IS FCST TO CREST JUST SHORT OF FLOOD
STAGE THIS WEEKEND AND WE ISSUED AN ESF /HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ AT 1109
PM LAST EVENING FOR THIS. GRAND ISLAND IS FCST TO RISE TO ACTION
STAGE AS WELL THIS WEEKEND.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE PLATTE RVR SHOULD CONT TO MONITOR WATER
LEVELS VIA THE RIVER&LAKES LINK ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE OF OUR
WEBPAGE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...BRYANT
HYDROLOGY...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
637 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU JAN 12 2014
CLEARING IS IN PROGRESS...BUT AS THE WRF GOES-R SIMULATED FOG
PRODUCT SUGGESTED...MVFR STRATUS HAS EXPANDED ACROSS N-CNTRL NEB
AND WAS DROPPING S INTO THE FCST AREA. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT
AND MIX OUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES UNSTABLE THIS MORNING
/15Z-16Z/. AFTER VIEWING THE WRF GOES-R SIMULATED IR IMAGERY...
THE SKY FCST WAS LEFT AS IS FROM 400 AM. W OF HWY 281 WILL
PROBABLY SEE A FEW SMALL PATCHES OF 10K FT ALTOCU AND PATCHY
CIRROSTRATUS. M/SUNNY SHOULD DO JUST FINE.
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
...CLEARING AND VERY COMFORTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING...
ALOFT: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING THE
DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING...HEADED FOR THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
LEAVE THE CNTRL PLAINS IN SUBSIDENT NW FLOW TODAY. THE WESTERLIES
ARE MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONT E AND ARRIVE OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED
LOW THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW.
SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE TSTMS TO THE SE HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LAST EVENING WAS JUST S AND E OF THE REGION...DRAPED
FROM IA-KS-OK-TX. HIGH PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE
FRONT WILL CONT MOVING AWAY AS THE HIGH PRESSES SE TO BE LOCATED
OVER IA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW PRES WILL
ORGANIZE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND IT WILL BE ALONG THE WY-MT
BORDER BY 12Z/FRI... WITH A WARM FRONT POISED JUST TO THE W OF THE
FCST AREA.
EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDY WITH THICK ANVIL CIRROSTRATUS FROM THE
MCS OVER KS/OK...BUT IT IS HEADING E AND WE WILL SEE A CLEARING
TREND FROM W-E THRU MID-MORNING. THE LAST OF THE SHWR ACTIVITY DIED
OVER THAYER COUNTY AT 335 AM. EXPECT THE REST OF THE AM TO BE DRY.
WE HAVE NOTED SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MOVING OUT OF SD INTO NRN
NEB AND IT HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH THE NRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA.
THE 06Z 3KM RAP SUGGESTS ITS EXPANSION THRU THE PREDAWN HRS AND
THIS MAY BE A MINOR AVIATION ISSUE TO ADDRESS.
TODAY: GENERALLY SUNNY. ANY AREAS LEFT WITH HIGH CLOUDS AT
SUNRISE WILL SEE CLEARING THIS MORNING. WE WILL HAVE TO MAKE SOME
VERY SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY FCST AS WE SEE HOW
IT EVOLVES ON SATELLITE.
THE 18Z/00Z NAM VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A FEW MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD DRIFT THRU. THE EC/GEM DO NOT HAVE IT AND THE GFS
KEEPS THEM W OF THE FCST AREA. EVEN IN QUIET WX THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY! SATELLITE AND SFC OBS DO SHOW SOME 7-10K FT CLOUDS
OVER COLORADO SPREADING INTO THE PANHANDLE. IF SOME OF THIS HOLDS
TOGETHER AS THE NAM INDICATES...WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF P/CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY.
WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE GOES-R SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
THE NSSL-WRF WHICH BECOMES AVAILABLE IN A COUPLE HRS. THIS IMAGERY
FROM THE 4KM NAM SHOWS THESE CLOUDS COULD APPROACH THE WRN FRINGE
OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING...BUT REMAIN TO THE W.
THE RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILE HAS 29-32 KTS AS LOW AS 400 FT.
INITIAL EXPANSION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX THIS DOWN THIS
MORNING AND WE EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. ONCE WE GET PAST
NOON...WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
TONIGHT: A GREAT NIGHT FOR OPENING UP THE WINDOWS. BASICALLY
CLEAR AND ON THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80. TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 40S N OF HWY 92. UPR 40S-LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. THESE
TEMPS WILL BE 10F COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE. THE LAST TIME
LOWS WERE THIS COOL WAS BACK ON MAY 18TH.
POST-MORTEM: LAST EVENING EVOLVED VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED.
GOOD TO MAKE MENTAL NOTES OF HOW THE HI-RES MODELS WITH EXPLICIT
CONVECTION PERFORMED. THIS WAS MAINLY A HAIL EVENT FROM MULTI-
CELL CLUSTERS THAT EXHIBITED SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AT TIMES.
THE LARGEST HAIL WAS THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS NEAR RED CLOUD.
PLEASE SEE OUR PRELIM SUMMARY LSR FOR ALL THE DETAILS.
PLEASE TWEET US YOUR PHOTOS OF HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE OR POST THEM TO
OUR FACEBOOK PAGE IF YOU HAVENT DONE SO ALREADY. THANK YOU VERY
MUCH.
PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR ANALYSIS OF RECENT RAINFALL
AND ON-GOING OR POTENTIAL FLOOD THREATS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
PER THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LITERALLY EVERY SINGLE 12-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY CONTAINS AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE (IF NOT HIGHER CHANCES) OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AT LEAST
SOME PORTION OF THE CWA. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE TWO MAIN POINTS
THAT NEED TO BE MADE RIGHT OFF THE TOP: FIRST OF ALL...BY FAR AND
AWAY THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO FOCUS ON THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME...AND THERE ARE INCREASING CONCERNS FOR SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL. ALONG THESE LINES...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INTRODUCED
A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK AREA TO PART OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS DAY 3
OUTLOOK TECHNICALLY ONLY HIGHLIGHTS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF
THE CWA...THIS FORECASTER IS OF THE OPINION THAT ESSENTIALLY THE
ENTIRE CWA SHOULD CONSIDER ITSELF TO BE IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS POINT...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS
SLIGHT RISK EXPANDED IN AREA AS IT GETS INTO THE DAY 2 AND
EVENTUALLY DAY 1 TIME FRAME. THE SECOND MAIN POINT TO EMPHASIZE
FOR THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS THAT THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EVEN IN THE LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ESPECIALLY BY THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...AND THE PLACEMENT
AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS DURING THESE FINAL 3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST
ARE CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF CHANGE. GIVEN THIS INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY...MOST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME PERIODS ARE NO
HIGHER THAN 20S-30S...AND ALTHOUGH HAVE MAINTAINED SOME MODESTLY
HIGHER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY...HAVE TRIMMED OUT THE
MENTION OF 50 POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT LEAST FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURE WISE...MADE FAIRLY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MAJORITY OF THIS
6-DAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AIMED TO TOP OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 80S ON MOST DAYS. HOWEVER...PROBABLY THE MOST
CHALLENGING HIGH TEMP FORECAST AT THIS POINT IS SATURDAY...WHICH
ALSO HAS A CHANCE AT BEING THE OVERALL WARMEST DAY. ALTHOUGH THE
CURRENT FORECAST NUDGED UP HIGHS GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES...GETTING
MORE OF THE CWA INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AND EVEN LOW 90S
SOUTHWEST...THERE COULD EASILY BE ROOM FOR FUTURE UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS...AS SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE LATEST 06Z NAM SUGGEST THAT
MUCH OF THE CWA COULD FLIRT WITH LOW-90S...WITH SOUTHWEST AREAS
POTENTIALLY EVEN UPPER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES ON MOST NIGHTS ARE
AIMED IN THE SEASONABLY-TYPICAL UPPER 50S-MID 60S RANGE...SO NOT
FORESEEING ANY BIG SURPRISES HERE.
AS FOR NON-THUNDERSTORM RELATED POTENTIAL HAZARDS...ITS BEEN AWHILE
SINCE FORECAST SUSTAINED SPEEDS HAVE REALLY COME CLOSE TO SOLIDLY
APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30+ MPH. AND ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DOES NOT ADVERTISE ANY ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS...ITS AT LEAST
LOOKING LIKE MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA COULD AT LEAST APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA ON FRIDAY...WHILE MAINLY PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWA COULD
APPROACH IT ON SATURDAY. ON BOTH DAYS...THESE ENHANCED WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY...IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
GETTING INTO A BIT MORE DETAIL AND GENERALLY TAKING IT IN 24-48 HOUR
BLOCKS...
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN DRY
CONDITIONS CWA-WIDE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AND THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...AND IN RESPONSE SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE WEST WILL PROMOTE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS. FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND 20 MPH IN
EASTERN ZONES AND MORE SO 25-30 MPH IN THE WEST (WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OF COURSE). ALREADY BY FRIDAY NIGHT...QUESTIONS ABOUT SHOWER/STORM
POTENTIAL ARISE...AS SOME MODELS ARE BONE DRY WHILE OTHERS GENERATE
AT LEAST ISOLATED MAINLY LATE NIGHT CONVECTION WITHIN THE AXIS OF A
VERY STRONG 50+KT LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT AT 850 MILLIBARS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH WELL OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT AS
EVIDENT BY 700MB TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 12-14C RANGE. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT SHAKY...OPTED TO STAY THE COURSE AND LEAVE THE
EVENING PERIOD VOID OF POPS...WHILE BLANKETING MOST OF THE CWA WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES DURING THE POST-MIDNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS...A ROGUE STRONG STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR...AND ITS ALSO NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT MORE ROBUST EVENING CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF
THE CWA TRIES TO SURVIVE ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO AT LEAST WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED OFF THE TOP THIS 24-HOUR
PERIOD LIKELY COMMANDS THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST ATTENTION FOR THE
SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. COMPARED TO THE SEVERE EVENT
THAT JUST OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...THIS UPCOMING SATURDAY SETUP LOOKS
TO BE MORE POTENT WITH A GREATER COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR.
ALTHOUGH MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS ARE LIKELY OVER-DOING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE A BIT...WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT THERE TO BE AT LEAST 2000
J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 50-60KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN EASTERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE DEPARTING FRI NIGHT CONVECTION...THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CAPPED AS THE POTENT MID/UPPER WAVE SLIDES
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AM EXPECTING RATHER VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST INITIALLY LIKELY TIED TO A
FAIRLY NARROW ZONE ALONG THE INVADING SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
LIKELY TO RESIDE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
GIVEN THE CAPE/SHEAR COMBO...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAIRLY RIPE
FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A WIND THREAT POSSIBLY ENHANCED
BY UPSCALE GROWTH DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING A NOTABLE TORNADO THREAT...CANNOT COMPLETELY DISMISS THIS
POSSIBILITY EITHER ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MOST FAVORABLE THE LONGEST. HYDRO-
WISE...COULD EASILY SEE A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA RECEIVING A QUICK 1-
2 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER...BUT FORTUNATELY A GENERALLY DRY 48
HOURS LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT WILL HOPEFULLY MITIGATE ANY MORE THAN
LOCALIZED/MINOR FLOODING ISSUES FOR THE MOST PART. POPS FOR MOST
OF THE CWA ARE STILL IN THE LIKELY 60 RANGE FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT FURTHER INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN
SOME AREAS.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...IN REALITY THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD STAY
DRY/STORM-FREE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS 24 HOURS...BUT AT LEAST
FOR NOW HAVE LINGERED A SLIGHT POP IN FAR EASTERN ZONES DURING THE
MORNING JUST IN CASE A LITTLE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY STILL
LINGERS...AND HAVE ALSO KEPT SLIGHT POPS FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST
1/3 OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY PER THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE PRIMARY MODELS SUCH AS THE
ECMWF/GFS START TO INCREASINGLY DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF GENERALLY
KEEPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
LOCAL FLOW MORE QUASI-ZONAL WITH VARIOUS PASSING LOW-AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCES. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS
TIME...UNCERTAINTY IS FAR TOO HIGH TO EVEN PINPOINT A TIME FRAME
WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE. POPS ARE LARGELY A MULTI-MODEL BLEND WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS...AND FOR NOW THE HIGHEST 40 POPS ARE
FOCUSED ON MONDAY DAYTIME BUT ITS NO GUARANTEE TO STAY THAT WAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MID-UPPER FLOW AND EVEN SURFACE
PATTERNS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS GET INCREDIBLY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE
ANOTHER...WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A VERY WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
BREEZES...WHILE THE GFS IS COOLER BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
INTERESTINGLY...BOTH MODELS ARE GENERALLY AGREEING ON DRY CONDITIONS
DURING THIS TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH LOW-END 20-
30 POPS UNTIL THINGS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z GRI TAF THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
TODAY: SATELLITE SHOWS A GOOD SIZE BATCH OF MVFR STRATUS/STRATOCU
IS DROPPING S TOWARD GRI. SIMULATED CLOUD COVER FROM HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE THE THREAT FOR MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BE OVER IN THE 14Z-
15Z TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER...VFR WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SCT MID-
HIGH CLOUDS. N WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND GUST UP TO 23
KTS...THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MVFR CLOUDS
TONIGHT: VFR SKC. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND EVENTUALLY
SE AFTER 05Z.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
RECENT RAINFALL: AS ANTICIPATED LAST EVENINGS STORMS DEVELOPED
PRIMARILY S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF
BENEFICIAL RAIN WAS NARROW AND STRETCHED ACROSS ROOKS-OSBORNE-
JEWELL COUNTIES. LOOKING AT ESTIMATED RAINFALL FOR THE PAST 4
WEEKS...THE AREA FROM THE TRI-CITIES SE TO HEBRON AND NE TO
COLUMBUS HAS SEEN A RAINFALL DEFICIT OF 0.5 TO 3 INCHES. THE SW
HALF OF THE FCST AREA /S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES/ HAS SEEN A 2-6
INCH SURPLUS OR 125-200% OF NORMAL.
UPSTREAM OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE AND THE SANDHILLS...RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 2 WKS HAS BEEN 200-600% OF NORMAL. THAT HAS
RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE PLATTE RVR SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE MONTH. THE FLOOD WARNING CONTS FOR WRN DAWSON
COUNTY FOR MINOR FLOODING AROUND GOTHENBURG. FCSTS INDICATE THAT
BOTH THE N AND S BRANCHES AT COZAD WILL APPROACH OR WERE ALREADY
NEAR ACTION STAGE. KEARNEY IS FCST TO CREST JUST SHORT OF FLOOD
STAGE THIS WEEKEND AND WE ISSUED AN ESF /HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ AT 1109
PM LAST EVENING FOR THIS. GRAND ISLAND IS FCST TO RISE TO ACTION
STAGE AS WELL THIS WEEKEND.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE PLATTE RVR SHOULD CONT TO MONITOR WATER
LEVELS VIA THE RIVER&LAKES LINK ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE OF OUR
WEBPAGE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
HYDROLOGY...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
444 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
...CLEARING AND VERY COMFORTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING...
ALOFT: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING THE
DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING...HEADED FOR THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
LEAVE THE CNTRL PLAINS IN SUBSIDENT NW FLOW TODAY. THE WESTERLIES
ARE MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONT E AND ARRIVE OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED
LOW THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW.
SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE TSTMS TO THE SE HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LAST EVENING WAS JUST S AND E OF THE REGION...DRAPED
FROM IA-KS-OK-TX. HIGH PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE
FRONT WILL CONT MOVING AWAY AS THE HIGH PRESSES SE TO BE LOCATED
OVER IA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW PRES WILL
ORGANIZE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND IT WILL BE ALONG THE WY-MT
BORDER BY 12Z/FRI... WITH A WARM FRONT POISED JUST TO THE W OF THE
FCST AREA.
EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDY WITH THICK ANVIL CIRROSTRATUS FROM THE
MCS OVER KS/OK...BUT IT IS HEADING E AND WE WILL SEE A CLEARING
TREND FROM W-E THRU MID-MORNING. THE LAST OF THE SHWR ACTIVITY DIED
OVER THAYER COUNTY AT 335 AM. EXPECT THE REST OF THE AM TO BE DRY.
WE HAVE NOTED SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MOVING OUT OF SD INTO NRN
NEB AND IT HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH THE NRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA.
THE 06Z 3KM RAP SUGGESTS ITS EXPANSION THRU THE PREDAWN HRS AND
THIS MAY BE A MINOR AVIATION ISSUE TO ADDRESS.
TODAY: GENERALLY SUNNY. ANY AREAS LEFT WITH HIGH CLOUDS AT
SUNRISE WILL SEE CLEARING THIS MORNING. WE WILL HAVE TO MAKE SOME
VERY SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY FCST AS WE SEE HOW
IT EVOLVES ON SATELLITE.
THE 18Z/00Z NAM VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A FEW MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD DRIFT THRU. THE EC/GEM DO NOT HAVE IT AND THE GFS
KEEPS THEM W OF THE FCST AREA. EVEN IN QUIET WX THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY! SATELLITE AND SFC OBS DO SHOW SOME 7-10K FT CLOUDS
OVER COLORADO SPREADING INTO THE PANHANDLE. IF SOME OF THIS HOLDS
TOGETHER AS THE NAM INDICATES...WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF P/CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY.
WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE GOES-R SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
THE NSSL-WRF WHICH BECOMES AVAILABLE IN A COUPLE HRS. THIS IMAGERY
FROM THE 4KM NAM SHOWS THESE CLOUDS COULD APPROACH THE WRN FRINGE
OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING...BUT REMAIN TO THE W.
THE RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILE HAS 29-32 KTS AS LOW AS 400 FT.
INITIAL EXPANSION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX THIS DOWN THIS
MORNING AND WE EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. ONCE WE GET PAST
NOON...WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
TONIGHT: A GREAT NIGHT FOR OPENING UP THE WINDOWS. BASICALLY
CLEAR AND ON THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80. TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 40S N OF HWY 92. UPR 40S-LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. THESE
TEMPS WILL BE 10F COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE. THE LAST TIME
LOWS WERE THIS COOL WAS BACK ON MAY 18TH.
POST-MORTEM: LAST EVENING EVOLVED VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED.
GOOD TO MAKE MENTAL NOTES OF HOW THE HI-RES MODELS WITH EXPLICIT
CONVECTION PERFORMED. THIS WAS MAINLY A HAIL EVENT FROM MULTI-
CELL CLUSTERS THAT EXHIBITED SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AT TIMES.
THE LARGEST HAIL WAS THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS NEAR RED CLOUD.
PLEASE SEE OUR PRELIM SUMMARY LSR FOR ALL THE DETAILS.
PLEASE TWEET US YOUR PHOTOS OF HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE OR POST THEM TO
OUR FACEBOOK PAGE IF YOU HAVENT DONE SO ALREADY. THANK YOU VERY
MUCH.
PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR ANALYSIS OF RECENT RAINFALL
AND ON-GOING OR POTENTIAL FLOOD THREATS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
PER THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LITERALLY EVERY SINGLE 12-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY CONTAINS AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE (IF NOT HIGHER CHANCES) OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AT LEAST
SOME PORTION OF THE CWA. THAT BEING SAID...THERE ARE TWO MAIN POINTS
THAT NEED TO BE MADE RIGHT OFF THE TOP: FIRST OF ALL...BY FAR AND
AWAY THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT WEEK CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO FOCUS ON THE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
TIME FRAME...AND THERE ARE INCREASING CONCERNS FOR SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL. ALONG THESE LINES...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INTRODUCED
A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK AREA TO PART OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS DAY 3
OUTLOOK TECHNICALLY ONLY HIGHLIGHTS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF
THE CWA...THIS FORECASTER IS OF THE OPINION THAT ESSENTIALLY THE
ENTIRE CWA SHOULD CONSIDER ITSELF TO BE IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS POINT...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS
SLIGHT RISK EXPANDED IN AREA AS IT GETS INTO THE DAY 2 AND
EVENTUALLY DAY 1 TIME FRAME. THE SECOND MAIN POINT TO EMPHASIZE
FOR THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS THAT THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EVEN IN THE LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
ESPECIALLY BY THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...AND THE PLACEMENT
AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS DURING THESE FINAL 3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST
ARE CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO PLENTY OF CHANGE. GIVEN THIS INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY...MOST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME PERIODS ARE NO
HIGHER THAN 20S-30S...AND ALTHOUGH HAVE MAINTAINED SOME MODESTLY
HIGHER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY...HAVE TRIMMED OUT THE
MENTION OF 50 POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT LEAST FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURE WISE...MADE FAIRLY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MAJORITY OF THIS
6-DAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AIMED TO TOP OUT
SOMEWHERE IN THE 80S ON MOST DAYS. HOWEVER...PROBABLY THE MOST
CHALLENGING HIGH TEMP FORECAST AT THIS POINT IS SATURDAY...WHICH
ALSO HAS A CHANCE AT BEING THE OVERALL WARMEST DAY. ALTHOUGH THE
CURRENT FORECAST NUDGED UP HIGHS GENERALLY 1-2 DEGREES...GETTING
MORE OF THE CWA INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AND EVEN LOW 90S
SOUTHWEST...THERE COULD EASILY BE ROOM FOR FUTURE UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS...AS SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE LATEST 06Z NAM SUGGEST THAT
MUCH OF THE CWA COULD FLIRT WITH LOW-90S...WITH SOUTHWEST AREAS
POTENTIALLY EVEN UPPER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES ON MOST NIGHTS ARE
AIMED IN THE SEASONABLY-TYPICAL UPPER 50S-MID 60S RANGE...SO NOT
FORESEEING ANY BIG SURPRISES HERE.
AS FOR NON-THUNDERSTORM RELATED POTENTIAL HAZARDS...ITS BEEN AWHILE
SINCE FORECAST SUSTAINED SPEEDS HAVE REALLY COME CLOSE TO SOLIDLY
APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 30+ MPH. AND ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DOES NOT ADVERTISE ANY ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS...ITS AT LEAST
LOOKING LIKE MAINLY THE WESTERN CWA COULD AT LEAST APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA ON FRIDAY...WHILE MAINLY PARTS OF THE EASTERN CWA COULD
APPROACH IT ON SATURDAY. ON BOTH DAYS...THESE ENHANCED WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY...IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
GETTING INTO A BIT MORE DETAIL AND GENERALLY TAKING IT IN 24-48 HOUR
BLOCKS...
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN DRY
CONDITIONS CWA-WIDE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AND THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD.
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS...AND IN RESPONSE SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE WEST WILL PROMOTE THE
AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS. FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND 20 MPH IN
EASTERN ZONES AND MORE SO 25-30 MPH IN THE WEST (WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OF COURSE). ALREADY BY FRIDAY NIGHT...QUESTIONS ABOUT SHOWER/STORM
POTENTIAL ARISE...AS SOME MODELS ARE BONE DRY WHILE OTHERS GENERATE
AT LEAST ISOLATED MAINLY LATE NIGHT CONVECTION WITHIN THE AXIS OF A
VERY STRONG 50+KT LOW LEVEL JET EVIDENT AT 850 MILLIBARS. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH WELL OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN SYSTEM...THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM AIR ALOFT AS
EVIDENT BY 700MB TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 12-14C RANGE. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT SHAKY...OPTED TO STAY THE COURSE AND LEAVE THE
EVENING PERIOD VOID OF POPS...WHILE BLANKETING MOST OF THE CWA WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES DURING THE POST-MIDNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS...A ROGUE STRONG STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR...AND ITS ALSO NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT MORE ROBUST EVENING CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF
THE CWA TRIES TO SURVIVE ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO AT LEAST WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED OFF THE TOP THIS 24-HOUR
PERIOD LIKELY COMMANDS THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST ATTENTION FOR THE
SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. COMPARED TO THE SEVERE EVENT
THAT JUST OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...THIS UPCOMING SATURDAY SETUP LOOKS
TO BE MORE POTENT WITH A GREATER COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR.
ALTHOUGH MODELS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS ARE LIKELY OVER-DOING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE A BIT...WOULD GENERALLY EXPECT THERE TO BE AT LEAST 2000
J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 50-60KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME
SLIGHT POPS IN EASTERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
POSSIBLE DEPARTING FRI NIGHT CONVECTION...THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND CAPPED AS THE POTENT MID/UPPER WAVE SLIDES
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AM EXPECTING RATHER VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST INITIALLY LIKELY TIED TO A
FAIRLY NARROW ZONE ALONG THE INVADING SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
LIKELY TO RESIDE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
GIVEN THE CAPE/SHEAR COMBO...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAIRLY RIPE
FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A WIND THREAT POSSIBLY ENHANCED
BY UPSCALE GROWTH DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING A NOTABLE TORNADO THREAT...CANNOT COMPLETELY DISMISS THIS
POSSIBILITY EITHER ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA WHERE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MOST FAVORABLE THE LONGEST. HYDRO-
WISE...COULD EASILY SEE A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA RECEIVING A QUICK 1-
2 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER...BUT FORTUNATELY A GENERALLY DRY 48
HOURS LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT WILL HOPEFULLY MITIGATE ANY MORE THAN
LOCALIZED/MINOR FLOODING ISSUES FOR THE MOST PART. POPS FOR MOST
OF THE CWA ARE STILL IN THE LIKELY 60 RANGE FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT FURTHER INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN
SOME AREAS.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...IN REALITY THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA SHOULD STAY
DRY/STORM-FREE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS 24 HOURS...BUT AT LEAST
FOR NOW HAVE LINGERED A SLIGHT POP IN FAR EASTERN ZONES DURING THE
MORNING JUST IN CASE A LITTLE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY STILL
LINGERS...AND HAVE ALSO KEPT SLIGHT POPS FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST
1/3 OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY PER THE ECMWF SOLUTION.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS IS WHERE PRIMARY MODELS SUCH AS THE
ECMWF/GFS START TO INCREASINGLY DIVERGE...WITH THE ECMWF GENERALLY
KEEPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER LARGE SCALE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
LOCAL FLOW MORE QUASI-ZONAL WITH VARIOUS PASSING LOW-AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCES. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS
TIME...UNCERTAINTY IS FAR TOO HIGH TO EVEN PINPOINT A TIME FRAME
WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE. POPS ARE LARGELY A MULTI-MODEL BLEND WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS...AND FOR NOW THE HIGHEST 40 POPS ARE
FOCUSED ON MONDAY DAYTIME BUT ITS NO GUARANTEE TO STAY THAT WAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MID-UPPER FLOW AND EVEN SURFACE
PATTERNS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS GET INCREDIBLY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE
ANOTHER...WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING A VERY WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
BREEZES...WHILE THE GFS IS COOLER BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
INTERESTINGLY...BOTH MODELS ARE GENERALLY AGREEING ON DRY CONDITIONS
DURING THIS TIME...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH LOW-END 20-
30 POPS UNTIL THINGS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z GRI TAF THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
REST OF TONIGHT: VFR WITH THICK CIRROSTRATUS OVC AROUND 20K FT.
N-NNW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS BUT THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL
GUSTINESS POSSIBLE AS HIGH AS 25 KTS. IT SHOULD BE BRIEF SO IT WAS
LEFT OUT OF THE TAF. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THU: VFR. CLEARING. N WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH A LITTLE GUSTINESS
POSSIBLE 13Z-16Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THU EVE: VFR SKC. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
RECENT RAINFALL: AS ANTICIPATED LAST EVENINGS STORMS DEVELOPED
PRIMARILY S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF
BENEFICIAL RAIN WAS NARROW AND STRETCHED ACROSS ROOKS-OSBORNE-
JEWELL COUNTIES. LOOKING AT ESTIMATED RAINFALL FOR THE PAST 4
WEEKS...THE AREA FROM THE TRI-CITIES SE TO HEBRON AND NE TO
COLUMBUS HAS SEEN A RAINFALL DEFICIT OF 0.5 TO 3 INCHES. THE SW
HALF OF THE FCST AREA /S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES/ HAS SEEN A 2-6
INCH SURPLUS OR 125-200% OF NORMAL.
UPSTREAM OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE AND THE SANDHILLS...RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 2 WKS HAS BEEN 200-600% OF NORMAL. THAT HAS
RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE PLATTE RVR SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE MONTH. THE FLOOD WARNING CONTS FOR WRN DAWSON
COUNTY FOR MINOR FLOODING AROUND GOTHENBURG. FCSTS INDICATE THAT
BOTH THE N AND S BRANCHES AT COZAD WILL APPROACH OR WERE ALREADY
NEAR ACTION STAGE. KEARNEY IS FCST TO CREST JUST SHORT OF FLOOD
STAGE THIS WEEKEND AND WE ISSUED AN ESF /HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ AT 1109
PM LAST EVENING FOR THIS. GRAND ISLAND IS FCST TO RISE TO ACTION
STAGE AS WELL THIS WEEKEND.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE PLATTE RVR SHOULD CONT TO MONITOR WATER
LEVELS VIA THE RIVER&LAKES LINK ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE OF OUR
WEBPAGE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
HYDROLOGY...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
...CLEARING AND VERY COMFORTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING...
ALOFT: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF EXITING THE
DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING...HEADED FOR THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
LEAVE THE CNTRL PLAINS IN SUBSIDENT NW FLOW TODAY. THE WESTERLIES
ARE MODERATELY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
ADVANCING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONT E AND ARRIVE OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED
LOW THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE PACIFIC NW.
SURFACE: THE COOL FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE TSTMS TO THE SE HALF OF
THE FCST AREA LAST EVENING WAS JUST S AND E OF THE REGION...DRAPED
FROM IA-KS-OK-TX. HIGH PRES WAS SITUATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE
FRONT WILL CONT MOVING AWAY AS THE HIGH PRESSES SE TO BE LOCATED
OVER IA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW PRES WILL
ORGANIZE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND IT WILL BE ALONG THE WY-MT
BORDER BY 12Z/FRI... WITH A WARM FRONT POISED JUST TO THE W OF THE
FCST AREA.
EARLY THIS MORNING: CLOUDY WITH THICK ANVIL CIRROSTRATUS FROM THE
MCS OVER KS/OK...BUT IT IS HEADING E AND WE WILL SEE A CLEARING
TREND FROM W-E THRU MID-MORNING. THE LAST OF THE SHWR ACTIVITY
DIES OVER THAYER COUNTY AT 335 AM. EXPECT THE REST OF THE AM TO BE
DRY.
WE HAVE NOTED SOME PATCHY MVFR STRATUS MOVING OUT OF SD INTO NRN
NEB AND IT HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH THE NRN FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA.
THE 06Z 3KM RAP SUGGESTS ITS EXPANSION THRU THE PREDAWN HRS AND
THIS MAY BE A MINOR AVIATION ISSUE TO ADDRESS.
TODAY: GENERALLY SUNNY. ANY AREAS LEFT WITH HIGH CLOUDS AT
SUNRISE WILL SEE CLEARING THIS MORNING. WE WILL HAVE TO MAKE SOME
VERY SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY FCST AS WE SEE HOW
IT EVOLVES ON SATELLITE.
THE 18Z/00Z NAM VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A FEW MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS COULD DRIFT THRU. THE EC/GEM DO NOT HAVE IT AND THE GFS
KEEPS THEM W OF THE FCST AREA. EVEN IN QUIET WX THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY! SATELLITE AND SFC OBS DO SHOW SOME 7-10K FT CLOUDS
OVER COLORADO SPREADING INTO THE PANHANDLE. IF SOME OF THIS HOLDS
TOGETHER AS THE NAM INDICATES...WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF P/CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY.
WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE GOES-R SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
THE NSSL-WRF WHICH BECOMES AVAILABLE IN A COUPLE HRS. THIS IMAGERY
FROM THE 4KM NAM SHOWS THESE CLOUDS COULD APPROACH THE WRN FRINGE
OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE THIS MORNING...BUT REMAIN TO THE W.
THE RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILE HAS 29-32 KTS AS LOW AS 400 FT.
INITIAL EXPANSION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX THIS DOWN THIS
MORNING AND WE EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. ONCE WE GET PAST
NOON...WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
TONIGHT: A GREAT NIGHT FOR OPENING UP THE WINDOWS. BASICALLY
CLEAR AND ON THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY N OF I-80. TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE MID 40S N OF HWY 92. UPR 40S-LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. THESE
TEMPS WILL BE 10F COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE. THE LAST TIME
LOWS WERE THIS COOL WAS BACK ON MAY 18TH.
POST-MORTEM: LAST EVENING EVOLVED VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED.
GOOD TO MAKE MENTAL NOTES OF HOW THE HI-RES MODELS WITH EXPLICIT
CONVECTION PERFORMED. THIS WAS MAINLY A HAIL EVENT FROM MULTI-
CELL CLUSTERS THAT EXHIBITED SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AT TIMES.
THE LARGEST HAIL WAS THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS NEAR RED CLOUD.
PLEASE SEE OUR PRELIM SUMMARY LSR FOR ALL THE DETAILS.
PLEASE TWEET US YOUR PHOTOS OF HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE OR POST THEM TO
OUR FACEBOOK PAGE IF YOU HAVENT DONE SO ALREADY. THANK YOU VERY
MUCH.
PLEASE SEE OUR HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR ANALYSIS OF RECENT RAINFALL
AND ON-GOING OR POTENTIAL FLOOD THREATS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
THIS SECTION WILL UPDATE BY 430 AM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z GRI TAF THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
REST OF TONIGHT: VFR WITH THICK CIRROSTRATUS OVC AROUND 20K FT.
N-NNW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS BUT THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL
GUSTINESS POSSIBLE AS HIGH AS 25 KTS. IT SHOULD BE BRIEF SO IT WAS
LEFT OUT OF THE TAF. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THU: VFR. CLEARING. N WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH A LITTLE GUSTINESS
POSSIBLE 13Z-16Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THU EVE: VFR SKC. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
RECENT RAINFALL: AS ANTICIPATED LAST EVENINGS STORMS DEVELOPED
PRIMARILY S AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES. THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF
BENEFICIAL RAIN WAS NARROW AND STRETCHED ACROSS ROOKS-OSBORNE-
JEWELL COUNTIES. LOOKING AT ESTIMATED RAINFALL FOR THE PAST 4
WEEKS...THE AREA FROM THE TRI-CITIES SE TO HEBRON AND NE TO
COLUMBUS HAS SEEN A RAINFALL DEFICIT OF 0.5 TO 3 INCHES. THE SW
HALF OF THE FCST AREA /S AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES/ HAS SEEN A 2-6
INCH SURPLUS OR 125-200% OF NORMAL.
UPSTREAM OVER MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE AND THE SANDHILLS...RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 2 WKS HAS BEEN 200-600% OF NORMAL. THAT HAS
RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE PLATTE RVR SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF THE MONTH. THE FLOOD WARNING CONTS FOR WRN DAWSON
COUNTY FOR MINOR FLOODING AROUND GOTHENBURG. FCSTS INDICATE THAT
BOTH THE N AND S BRANCHES AT COZAD WILL APPROACH OR WERE ALREADY
NEAR ACTION STAGE. KEARNEY IS FCST TO CREST JUST SHORT OF FLOOD
STAGE THIS WEEKEND AND WE ISSUED AT ESF /HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ AT
1109 PM LAST EVENING FOR THIS. GRAND ISLAND IS FCST TO RISE TO
ACTION STAGE AS WELL THIS WEEKEND.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE PLATTE RVR SHOULD CONT TO MONITOR WATER
LEVELS VIA THE RIVER&LAKES LINK ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE OF OUR
WEBPAGE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
HYDROLOGY...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1227 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
WW 285 WAS CANCELLED ABOUT AN HOUR AGO. ONE LAST BAND OF TSTMS HAS
FORMED AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM YORK-FRANKLIN. MOVEMENT WAS SE
20-25 MPH. LOTS OF ANVIL DEBRIS REMAINS OVER N-CNTRL KS.
THE COOL FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM GENEVA NEB-PLAINVILLE KS.
THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY 2 AM. MADE
SOME SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO LINGER RAIN A LITTLE
LONGER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION...AS WELL AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
MONTANA AND WYOMING. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A ~110KT JET STREAK NEAR
MAINE AND A ~55KT JET STREAK OVER WYOMING. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 12Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AS
WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE AN
AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...AND AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. A WARM FRONT /
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS NOTED EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SURFACE
LOW INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND A WEAK DRY LINE EXTENDS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS
OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...CLEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 06Z TONIGHT...AND MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TONIGHT...WITH THIS SURFACE LOW THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
BY 00Z FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...THE WARM FRONT / STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR MUCH OF OUR CWA BY 06Z TONIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA POST-FROPA DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY.
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONVERGENCE AND RESULTANT LIFT ALONG THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEAR AS THROUGH THEY WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WHAT LITTLE CIN WILL BE IN EXISTENCE ACROSS THE
AREA AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...QPF FIELDS FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN...AS WELL AS SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 1KM WRF-NMM...1KM WRF-ARW AND HRRR ALL
SUGGEST ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR CWA AROUND 00Z...PERHAPS AS
EARLY AS 23Z. THESE DATA DO NOT SUGGEST THE CONVECTION WILL BE
OVERLY WIDESPREAD ...PRIMARILY BECAUSE THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE AND THE BULK OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE OMEGA WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF OUR AREA...BUT IT CERTAINLY APPEARS HIT AND MISS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME SETS OF GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION COULD INCREASE IN SPATIAL COVERAGE
PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS A SMALL-SCALE PERTURBATION
DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN KANSAS...SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD ~20% POPS
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STARTING AT 23Z THIS EVENING...WITH POPS
THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 70% ACROSS OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN CWA
00-06Z. POPS ARE THEN TAPERED OFF TO NEAR ZERO HEADING INTO THE
DAY THURSDAY.
ENHANCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEW POINT
READINGS NEAR 60...ALONG WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES AS THE SHORT WAVE BRUSHES OUR AREA TO THE NORTH...SHOULD
PROMOTE RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO
NEAR 3000J/KG WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP LAYER BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF ~25KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...IT CERTAINLY SEEMS POSSIBLE A FEW OF THE
UPDRAFTS COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND WILL CONTINUE SUCH WORDING IN THE HWO.
ALTHOUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CLEAR THE
AREA TONIGHT...A TRULY COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS WILL NOT
LIKELY INFILTRATE OUR AREA UNTIL THE DAY THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS SHOULD BE REALIZED TONIGHT
WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT. THE
INFILTRATION OF A COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS WILL THEN
PROMOTE COOLER TEMPERATURE READINGS ON THURSDAY WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY...WITH THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS WITH PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES NEEDED/MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH IT REMAINING DRY DURING THE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN UPPER LEVELS OVER THE PLAINS...SET
UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH
THE ROCKIES FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY ONTO THE PAC NW COAST. THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY...THESE FEATURES SLIDE EAST...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVING RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA...ENDING UP TO THE EAST BY
FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
PATTERN ON THURSDAY NIGHT
...WITH CONTINUED LIGHTER NE/E WINDS...BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE
EAST FRIDAY...WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE WEST. STILL LOOKING AT A
REBOUND IN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH NEAR 80 IN THE
EAST TO MID 80S IN THE WEST.
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS THE PERIOD WITH THE NEXT
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE
SHOWING THAT ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PAC NW
HAVING SHIFTED EAST IN CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE
MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER. A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH AN 50-ISH+ KT LLJ IN PLACE. SOME MODELS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT ALL
ARE IN AGREEMENT /THE EC IS DRY/...SHOWING THE AREA CAPPED WITH
BETTER CHANCES FURTHER WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...ALONG THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE ZONES OF THE LLJ. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY...SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION
GOING AFTER 06Z. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY COULD LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT WOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD LIES WITH ANOTHER SURFACE COLD
FRONT/DRY LINE APPROACHING FROM THE NW/W. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/PERHAPS EARLY
EVENING...DEPENDING ON CAPPING...BEFORE CONTINUING ITS TREK E/SE
THROUGH THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
PERIOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH MODELS SHOWING A GOOD COMBO OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR. WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND IN COMING MODEL RUNS.
THINKING THAT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY WOULD MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE BY BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY...LEAVING THE REST OF THE DAY
DRY. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HIGHS ON SAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOK TO
REACH INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM NEAR 80 NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STILL SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH A GENERALLY ZONAL PATTERN IN PLACE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...AND PERIODIC DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH. LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING/LOCATION THIS FAR
OUT...SO KEPT POPS LOW...HARD TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE. HIGHS LOOK
TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR...GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NORTH
TO MID/UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z GRI TAF THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
REST OF TONIGHT: VFR WITH THICK CIRROSTRATUS OVC AROUND 20K FT.
N-NNW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS BUT THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL
GUSTINESS POSSIBLE AS HIGH AS 25 KTS. IT SHOULD BE BRIEF SO IT WAS
LEFT OUT OF THE TAF. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THU: VFR. CLEARING. N WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH A LITTLE GUSTINESS
POSSIBLE 13Z-16Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
THU EVE: VFR SKC. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1149 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
WW 285 WAS CANCELLED ABOUT AN HOUR AGO. ONE LAST BAND OF TSTMS HAS
FORMED AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM YORK-FRANKLIN. MOVEMENT WAS SE
20-25 MPH. LOTS OF ANVIL DEBRIS REMAINS OVER N-CNTRL KS.
THE COOL FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM GENEVA NEB-PLAINVILLE KS.
THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY 2 AM. MADE
SOME SHORT-TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO LINGER RAIN A LITTLE
LONGER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HRS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION...AS WELL AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
MONTANA AND WYOMING. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A ~110KT JET STREAK NEAR
MAINE AND A ~55KT JET STREAK OVER WYOMING. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 12Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AS
WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE AN
AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...AND AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. A WARM FRONT /
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS NOTED EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SURFACE
LOW INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND A WEAK DRY LINE EXTENDS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS
OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...CLEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 06Z TONIGHT...AND MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TONIGHT...WITH THIS SURFACE LOW THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
BY 00Z FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...THE WARM FRONT / STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR MUCH OF OUR CWA BY 06Z TONIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA POST-FROPA DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY.
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONVERGENCE AND RESULTANT LIFT ALONG THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEAR AS THROUGH THEY WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WHAT LITTLE CIN WILL BE IN EXISTENCE ACROSS THE
AREA AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...QPF FIELDS FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN...AS WELL AS SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 1KM WRF-NMM...1KM WRF-ARW AND HRRR ALL
SUGGEST ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR CWA AROUND 00Z...PERHAPS AS
EARLY AS 23Z. THESE DATA DO NOT SUGGEST THE CONVECTION WILL BE
OVERLY WIDESPREAD ...PRIMARILY BECAUSE THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE AND THE BULK OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE OMEGA WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF OUR AREA...BUT IT CERTAINLY APPEARS HIT AND MISS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME SETS OF GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION COULD INCREASE IN SPATIAL COVERAGE
PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS A SMALL-SCALE PERTURBATION
DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN KANSAS...SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD ~20% POPS
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STARTING AT 23Z THIS EVENING...WITH POPS
THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 70% ACROSS OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN CWA
00-06Z. POPS ARE THEN TAPERED OFF TO NEAR ZERO HEADING INTO THE
DAY THURSDAY.
ENHANCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEW POINT
READINGS NEAR 60...ALONG WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES AS THE SHORT WAVE BRUSHES OUR AREA TO THE NORTH...SHOULD
PROMOTE RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO
NEAR 3000J/KG WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP LAYER BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF ~25KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...IT CERTAINLY SEEMS POSSIBLE A FEW OF THE
UPDRAFTS COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND WILL CONTINUE SUCH WORDING IN THE HWO.
ALTHOUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CLEAR THE
AREA TONIGHT...A TRULY COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS WILL NOT
LIKELY INFILTRATE OUR AREA UNTIL THE DAY THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS SHOULD BE REALIZED TONIGHT
WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT. THE
INFILTRATION OF A COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS WILL THEN
PROMOTE COOLER TEMPERATURE READINGS ON THURSDAY WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY...WITH THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS WITH PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES NEEDED/MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH IT REMAINING DRY DURING THE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN UPPER LEVELS OVER THE PLAINS...SET
UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH
THE ROCKIES FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY ONTO THE PAC NW COAST. THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY...THESE FEATURES SLIDE EAST...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVING RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA...ENDING UP TO THE EAST BY
FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
PATTERN ON THURSDAY NIGHT
...WITH CONTINUED LIGHTER NE/E WINDS...BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE
EAST FRIDAY...WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE WEST. STILL LOOKING AT A
REBOUND IN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH NEAR 80 IN THE
EAST TO MID 80S IN THE WEST.
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS THE PERIOD WITH THE NEXT
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE
SHOWING THAT ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PAC NW
HAVING SHIFTED EAST IN CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE
MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER. A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH AN 50-ISH+ KT LLJ IN PLACE. SOME MODELS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT ALL
ARE IN AGREEMENT /THE EC IS DRY/...SHOWING THE AREA CAPPED WITH
BETTER CHANCES FURTHER WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...ALONG THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE ZONES OF THE LLJ. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY...SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION
GOING AFTER 06Z. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY COULD LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT WOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD LIES WITH ANOTHER SURFACE COLD
FRONT/DRY LINE APPROACHING FROM THE NW/W. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/PERHAPS EARLY
EVENING...DEPENDING ON CAPPING...BEFORE CONTINUING ITS TREK E/SE
THROUGH THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
PERIOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH MODELS SHOWING A GOOD COMBO OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR. WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND IN COMING MODEL RUNS.
THINKING THAT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY WOULD MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE BY BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY...LEAVING THE REST OF THE DAY
DRY. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HIGHS ON SAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOK TO
REACH INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM NEAR 80 NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STILL SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH A GENERALLY ZONAL PATTERN IN PLACE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...AND PERIODIC DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH. LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING/LOCATION THIS FAR
OUT...SO KEPT POPS LOW...HARD TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE. HIGHS LOOK
TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR...GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NORTH
TO MID/UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR KGRI. AT 645 PM
CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTH OF SAINT PAUL TO NEAR
WOOD RIVER...AND OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THERE. THE FIRST ECHO
ON RADAR IS DUE NORTH OF KGRI...JUST NORTH OF ST LIBORY.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL CERTAINLY BE IN THE KGRI VICINITY
THROUGH AROUND 10 PM...AT WHICH POINT THEY SHOULD ALL HAVE PASSED
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 10 PM AT KGRI. THE WIND WILL TURN
TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BY 01Z TO 02Z. THE WIND WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID. PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...WESELY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1125 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
18Z SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS WITH AVAILABLE REMOTE SENSING
DATA REVEALS THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SANDHILLS REGION...AT THE NORTHERN DOOR OF KLBF. 19Z HAND
ANALYSIS INDICATED A TONGUE OF 60+ TD/S ARCING NORTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WHEELER AND GARFIELD
COUNTIES...WITH OTHER 60+ TD/S NOTED POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG AND WITHIN THE PLATTE RIVER BASINS. TEMPERATURES AS OF 19Z
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND IN KVTN...TO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT. AVAILABLE
NEAR TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FETCH OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE FRONT THIS EVENING...WITH THE CAP BEING
BREACHED AFTER 23Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TREND OF THE NEAR
TERM CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAS BEEN TO THE EAST...WITH THE
LATEST /15-16Z/ RUN OF THE HRRR NOW INDICATING THE ONLY CONVECTION
FIRING IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN HOLT COUNTY AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
WHEELER COUNTY. THE LATEST RAP13 SHOWS A SIMILAR TREND...BUT
SLIGHTLY MORE AMBITIOUS WITH FIRING CONVECTION BY 21Z. WILL FOLLOW
THE EASTWARD TREND OF THE NEAR TERM SOLUTIONS AND CUT BACK POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND EAST CONSIDERABLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WE WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATER
THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FIRING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO A EASTWARD ADVANCING
SOUTHERN ROCKIES SHORT-WAVE. THE AVAILABLE NEAR TERM MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE EVENTUAL MERGER OF STORMS INTO A EASTWARD
PROPAGATING MCS THAT MAY BRUSH OUR FAR SOUTHWEST...BUT THE TREND OF
THE MODELS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER SOUTH...SO WITH THAT STORM
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ARE FADING AS WELL. IF THE CAP IS
BREACHED AND STORMS FIRE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...STEEP LOWER TO MID
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE MODERATE INSTABILITY CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...A DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC PROFILE WOULD
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTY TSTM WIND. FOR THE OVERNIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH LIGHT WIND AND CLEARING CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. WITHIN THE POST
FRONTAL REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S IS FORECAST...WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...AHEAD OF NEXT LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH CARVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR
US STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET CONVECTION WISE. THAT
WILL CHANGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
QUICKLY TRANSPORTS GULF MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO REGION. SOME MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PRESENT...BUT THE NOSE OF THE JET AND BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME THUNDER THOUGH...SO WILL
CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AT THIS POINT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THE BETTER CHANCE WILL COME SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
SHOULD ROUGHLY EXTEND ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR EWING TO COMSTOCK TO
CURTIS BY VERY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS CAP WEAKENS...AND DECENT UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. GOOD
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
SOME HEALTHY SB CAPES /NEARING 5000 J/KG/ AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT
CREATING GOOD SHEAR...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR 45 KTS.
MODELS THEN AGREE THAT AN MCS SHOULD EVOLVE...WITH THE BULK OF
THIS ACTIVITY PUSHING EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING.
WILL KEEP SOME POPS GOING FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...AS STILL DECENT
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND ELEVATED CAPE COULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH STILL REMAINING TO OUR NORTHWEST. FRONT WASHES OUT
MONDAY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTHWEST BACK INTO
THE AREA. MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF
SUPPORTING A POTENT SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING OUR AREA. GFS NOT AS
STRONG WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM OR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SO WILL
KEEP POPS 30 PERCENT OR BELOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
VFR IS GENERALLY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
SATELLITE INDICATES LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE THROUGH NCNTL NEB
EAST OF KVTN-KTIF OVERNIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF IFR/MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY OVERNIGHT AS INDICATED BY THE RAP
MODEL. OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL FROM 15Z THURSDAY ONWARD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE NORTH
PLATTE...SOUTH PLATTE AND PLATTE RIVER BASINS. THIS IS DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEKEND AND RAPID ROCKY MOUNTAIN
SNOW MELT. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT
TERM...WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING....BUT THEN DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR
THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY. RIVER LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RECEDE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
HYDROLOGY...JACOBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
930 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AND ASSOCIATED GUSTS TODAY. WINDS WILL FURTHER
INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
COMBINED WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS THIS WILL CREATE A HIGH FIRE DANGER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWED A PATCH OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER EAST CENTRAL NEVADA. BOTH NAM AND RAP FORECASTS INDICATE
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER SLIGHTLY FOR THIS MORNING AND THEN DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON
AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES CLOSER AND SCOURS OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 302 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...
THE PRIMARY ISSUE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD ARE THE WIND SPEEDS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND ON TRACK. NEW
COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN RIGHT IN LINE LEADING TO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. WIND ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED ON
FRIDAY AS FORECAST WINDS APPROACH CRITERIA IN SOME LOCATIONS. WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THAT FOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. OTHER THAN THE WIND...THE
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. THE WEEKEND PROMISES TO BE VERY
NICE. ONE SIDE BENEFIT OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH IS
THAT OUR TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN FOR A DAY OR TWO.
.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...
A TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES. THE EC
MOS HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE GFS MOS IN TEMPS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
BASED ON THIS NEW AGREEMENT BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS THE GUIDANCE
WOULD SUGGEST CONSIDERING THE RATHER LARGE SPREAD 10 DEGREE SPREAD
IN THE EC ENSEMBLE MOS PRODUCT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS
SHOULD BE ON LIGHTER SIDE SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
MODEL FORECASTS INTRODUCE UNCERTAINTY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF
AND GEM FORECAST A LOW DROPPING OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES AND THEN INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE GFS,
SIMILAR TO 24 HRS, UNDERPLAYS THIS FEATURE AND ESSENTIALLY TAKES IT
EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. THE GFS ALSO HAS A WEAK EASTERN
PACIFIC LOW APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THAT THE EC/GEM DO NOT SHOW.
THE LATEST EC ENSEMBLE MOS HAS A TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF 19 DEGREES IN
LAS VEGAS FOR TUESDAY INDICATING EITHER A POTENT TROUGH OR A STRONG
RIDGE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEK IS LOW AT THIS POINT AND NON-EXISTENT REGARDING ANY DETAILS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE THIS FORECAST CYCLE. HOWEVER...WE
STRUGGLED WITH IDEA OF EXPANDING THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
NORTHWEST DESERTS AND PLATEAU (AZZ102) FOR TODAY. WIND SPEEDS ACROSS
THIS AREA ARE GOING TO FLIRT WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR ABOUT A 4-5
HOUR PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT CRITERIA LEVEL WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE SPORADIC AND MORE ISOLATED WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF AND MAKE
A MENTION OF THIS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...TRICKY FORECAST TODAY. THE MAIN QUESTION
WILL CENTER AROUND WHETHER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL MAKE A BRIEF
APPEARANCE LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WIND KICK IN TO OVERPOWER THEM. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN THE FORECAST TODAY. BUT WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF SOUTHEAST
WINDS THAT FAVOR CONFIGURATION 4 IN THE TAF FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND STRENGTHEN MORE ON FRIDAY. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS WITH
SIGNIFICANT CROSSWINDS AT SOME TERMINALS ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR NVZ460>464.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR NVZ460>466.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ101-102.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ226.
&&
$$
UPDATE...STUMPF
PREV DISCUSSION...LERICOS/SALMEN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
146 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AFTER THE MAIN
FRONT PASSES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. DRY AND FAIR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A NOTABLE
WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
RADARS BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP THIS AFTERNOON AS SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVANCE OVER THE REGION. LATEST
SURFACE OBS ALONG WITH CORRESPONDING SPC MESOANALYSIS NOW
SUGGESTING WARM FRONT IS STRETCHED IN A NORTH-SOUTH FASHION ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. AS RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON THUNDER
MENTION EAST OF I-81 AS THIS AREA REMAINS VERY STABLE PER LATEST
MLCAPE ANALYSIS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THE PRESENT
TIME.
1010 AM UPDATE... SO FAR THIS MORNING...REGIONAL
RADARS ONLY SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHWR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BGM
FCST AREA. MAIN CONCERNS HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON REMAIN FOCUSED
ON LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS PWAT VALUES REMAIN VERY
HIGH /2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. RIGHT NOW...MAIN
THING GOING AGAINST ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE THE
CONTINUED LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS. THAT
SAID...FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE SFC WARM FRONT THAT REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SHORTWAVE ENERGY OFF TO OUR WEST WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO
HELP INITIATE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
ACTUALLY SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING LATER TODAY
AND THUS HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN A NUMEROUS SHWR MENTION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. BEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST
OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR WHERE FCST MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED AT THE
PRESENT TIME.
AT 400 AM...LOCAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE CONTINUING
TO SLOWLY DECREASE.
THROUGH TONIGHT, A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE TN VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS
THROUGH THE PERIOD RANGING FROM 1.50-1.80 INCHES ALONG WITH WARM
CLOUD LAYER AROUND 10K FT. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
ACTIVITY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN
NUMEROUS THROUGH EVENING. DUE TO CONTINUED E/SE COOL/STABLE LOW
LEVEL FLOW CAPE WILL BE LIMITED AGAIN TODAY WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY
OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION BUT EVEN HERE ONLY A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG. WILL MENTION SCATTERED TRW WEST OF I81 AND ISOLATED EAST.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN THE FINGER
LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER WITH UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON FRIDAY, A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROF NOW OVER NRN MINNESOTA
WILL DROP THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES AND PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
JUICY UNTIL FROPA SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. CAPE
VALUES ARE BETTER GENERALLY 400-800 J/KG BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TALL/SKINNY CAPE WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH
NON IMPRESSIVE BULK SHEAR VALES AND MID LEVEL FLOW INDICATES
LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, WILL KEEP MENTION IN
HWO FOR MINOR FLOOD CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTER LINGERING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN PTN OF CWA FRIDAY EVENING PERIOD WILL BE DRY
AND MAINLY CLEAR. MAXES ON SAT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN VCNTY RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
700 AM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST....
PREVIOUS FORECAST...
FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS
WELL-ENTRENCHED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN FIRM CONTROL. TEMPS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPPER
RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY EARLY WEEK
AS SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES BEGIN TRACKING EAST ALONG A
STALLED FRONT DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD AS FEATURE REMAINS STALLED TO
OUR NORTH.
IN TERMS OF TEMPS...STRONG WARM ADVECTION EARLY WEEK SHOULD ALLOW
LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERHAPS
WEDNESDAY. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...A FEW NEAR 90 DEGREE READINGS
APPEAR POSSIBLE AS STALLED FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THU UPDATE... AT LEAST OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-
WIDE THIS AFTN AND EVE...AS SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS ROLL THROUGH THE
RGN. FOR THE MOST PART...THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE MVFR
CAT...BUT IFR CIG BASES ARE PLAUSIBLE AT KBGM/KITH. SINCE THUNDER
SEEMS RATHER ISOLD ATTM...WE`RE INCLINED TO LEAVE THIS MENTION OUT
OF THE TERMINAL FCSTS. TSRA CAN ALWAYS BE ADDED ON AN INDIVIDUAL
BASIS...AS NEEDED.
LTR TNT INTO EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD LWR CIGS ARE FORESEEN ONCE
AGN...SIMILAR TO THE LAST SVRL OVERNIGHTS/EARLY MRNGS. IFR CIG
BASES ARE QUITE PLAUSIBLE AT THE MORE ELEVATED SITES
(KBGM/KITH)...WITH MVFR LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FRI...AHD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. RESTRICTIONS (MAINLY MVFR) ARE EXPECTED
AGN.
GUSTY S TO SE SFC WINDS THIS AFTN AND EVE (AS MUCH AS 20-25
KT)...WILL DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT AND FRI MRNG (MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS).
OUTLOOK...
SAT THROUGH TUE... VFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME. IFR/LIFR CONDS IN
MRNG FOG ARE PSBL AT KELM SUN AND MON. SOME RESTRICTIVE CONDS MAY
ALSO ACCOMPANY SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS MON NGT AND TUE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG/RRM
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...CMG/KAH
AVIATION...MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
144 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AFTER THE MAIN
FRONT PASSES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. DRY AND FAIR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A NOTABLE
WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
130 PM UPDATE...
RADARS BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP THIS AFTERNOON AS SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVANCE OVER THE REGION. LATEST
SURFACE OBS ALONG WITH CORRESPONDING SPC MESOANALYSIS NOW
SUGGESTING WARM FRONT IS STRETCHED IN A NORTH-SOUTH FASHION ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. AS RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON THUNDER
MENTION EAST OF I-81 AS THIS AREA REMAINS VERY STABLE PER LATEST
MLCAPE ANALYSIS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THE PRESENT
TIME.
1010 AM UPDATE... SO FAR THIS MORNING...REGIONAL
RADARS ONLY SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHWR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BGM
FCST AREA. MAIN CONCERNS HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON REMAIN FOCUSED
ON LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS PWAT VALUES REMAIN VERY
HIGH /2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. RIGHT NOW...MAIN
THING GOING AGAINST ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE THE
CONTINUED LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS. THAT
SAID...FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE SFC WARM FRONT THAT REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SHORTWAVE ENERGY OFF TO OUR WEST WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO
HELP INITIATE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
ACTUALLY SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING LATER TODAY
AND THUS HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN A NUMEROUS SHWR MENTION LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. BEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST
OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR WHERE FCST MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED AT THE
PRESENT TIME.
AT 400 AM...LOCAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE CONTINUING
TO SLOWLY DECREASE.
THROUGH TONIGHT, A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE TN VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS
THROUGH THE PERIOD RANGING FROM 1.50-1.80 INCHES ALONG WITH WARM
CLOUD LAYER AROUND 10K FT. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
ACTIVITY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN
NUMEROUS THROUGH EVENING. DUE TO CONTINUED E/SE COOL/STABLE LOW
LEVEL FLOW CAPE WILL BE LIMITED AGAIN TODAY WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY
OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION BUT EVEN HERE ONLY A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG. WILL MENTION SCATTERED TRW WEST OF I81 AND ISOLATED EAST.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN THE FINGER
LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER WITH UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON FRIDAY, A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROF NOW OVER NRN MINNESOTA
WILL DROP THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES AND PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
JUICY UNTIL FROPA SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. CAPE
VALUES ARE BETTER GENERALLY 400-800 J/KG BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TALL/SKINNY CAPE WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH
NON IMPRESSIVE BULK SHEAR VALES AND MID LEVEL FLOW INDICATES
LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, WILL KEEP MENTION IN
HWO FOR MINOR FLOOD CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTER LINGERING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN PTN OF CWA FRIDAY EVENING PERIOD WILL BE DRY
AND MAINLY CLEAR. MAXES ON SAT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN VCNTY RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
700 AM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST....
PREVIOUS FORECAST...
FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS
WELL-ENTRENCHED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN FIRM CONTROL. TEMPS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPPER
RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY EARLY WEEK
AS SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES BEGIN TRACKING EAST ALONG A
STALLED FRONT DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD AS FEATURE REMAINS STALLED TO
OUR NORTH.
IN TERMS OF TEMPS...STRONG WARM ADVECTION EARLY WEEK SHOULD ALLOW
LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERHAPS
WEDNESDAY. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...A FEW NEAR 90 DEGREE READINGS
APPEAR POSSIBLE AS STALLED FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THU UPDATE... AT LEAST OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-
WIDE THIS AFTN AND EVE...AS SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS ROLL THROUGH THE
RGN. FOR THE MOST PART...THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE MVFR
CAT...BUT IFR CIG BASES ARE PLAUSIBLE AT KBGM/KITH. SINCE THUNDER
SEEMS RATHER ISOLD ATTM...WE`RE INCLINED TO LEAVE THIS MENTION OUT
OF THE TERMINAL FCSTS. TSRA CAN ALWAYS BE ADDED ON AN INDIVIDUAL
BASIS...AS NEEDED.
LTR TNT INTO EARLY FRI...WIDESPREAD LWR CIGS ARE FORESEEN ONCE
AGN...SIMILAR TO THE LAST SVRL OVERNIGHTS/EARLY MRNGS. IFR CIG
BASES ARE QUITE PLAUSIBLE AT THE MORE ELEVATED SITES
(KBGM/KITH)...WITH MVFR LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AGN FRI...AHD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. RESTRICTIONS (MAINLY MVFR) ARE
EXPECTED AGN.
GUSTY S TO SE SFC WINDS THIS AFTN AND EVE (AS MUCH AS 20-25
KT)...WILL DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT AND FRI MRNG (MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS).
OUTLOOK...
SAT THROUGH TUE... VFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME. IFR/LIFR CONDS IN
MRNG FOG ARE PSBL AT KELM SUN AND MON. SOME RESTRICTIVE CONDS MAY
ALSO ACCOMPANY SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS MON NGT AND TUE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...CMG/RRM
SHORT TERM...CMG
LONG TERM...CMG/KAH
AVIATION...MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1035 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT THURSDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
AND WEATHER AS OF LATE MORNING TO INCORPORATE LATEST OBSERATIONAL
TRENDS. ANY CHANCE OF THUNDER GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS INTO THE SLV TODAY WHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONTINENTIAL AIRMASS FOSTERS SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY TODAY.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED THOUGH...MAINLY SHOWERS.
FURTHER EAST...MAINLY A COOL/MOIST/STABLE MARTIME AIRMASS FROM THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. DID OPT TO LOWER TEMPS
ACROSS OUR EASTERN VERMONT COUNTIES BY 2-4 DEGREES BASED OFF
LATEST TRENDS AND PERSISTENT/LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND TRAJECTORIES
OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE
SHOWING CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD ON AND OFF SHOWERY
WEATHER...WITH HIGHEST CONCENTRATION NORTH AND WEST. HAVE A GREAT
DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUS...HAVE
GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR TODAY. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCE TO HAVE A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
THROUGH FRIDAY ...SO SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE
SCALE PATTERN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN INCREASE
UNCERTAINTY FOR MIDWEEK. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND DEVELOPING 1022MB
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN A DRY SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD.
GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE EXPECT A LARGE SWING IN NIGHTTIME
LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S SLK/NEK TO
NEAR 50F WARMER VALLEYS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/LOWER 80S.
HAVE NOTED THE MEX AT SLK IS SUGGESTING 35F...WHICH MAYBE A LITTLE
COOL. OTHERWISE...AS SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE EAST...A RETURN
FLW OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AIR WL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. THIS SFC WARM FRNT AND WEAK S/W ENERGY MAY PRODUCE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEST CHC ACRS NORTHERN
ZNS. FOR TUES THRU WEDS...WESTERLY FLW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
VORTS WL MOVE ACRS OUR REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SOME AREAS OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE...WL RESULT IN SCHC/CHC POPS...WITH HIGHEST CHCS DURING
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HRS DURING PEAK HEATING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM
BTWN 14C AND 16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MTNS TO M80S
WARMER VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACRS ALL
OUR TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH EXCEPTION MVFR VIS
AT MPV. THINKING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL CONT THRU 15Z...BEFORE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION. RAP RH PROFILES SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
CONTS TO ADVECT ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH CIGS SLOWLY DECREASING TO
MVFR LVLS BY THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK/MPV.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES...AS CIGS DROP BTWN 1500 FEET AND 2500
FEET. GIVEN TRENDS IN SOUNDINGS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP BY 03Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT
MSS/MPV AND SLK. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS CONT
OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS AT MSS. SOME GUSTS BTWN 15 AND
20 KNTS WL BE POSSIBLE AT RUT BTWN 12Z-18Z TODAY...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW CIGS. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DROP VIS TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. A SLOW
IMPROVING TREND IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND DEVELOPING SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD SOME AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. VFR WITH HIGH PRES
PREVAILS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF1035 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
WINDS AT COLCHESTER REEF CONTINUE TO BLOW STEADILY 20-25 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTH SINCE ABOUT 2 A.M. THIS MORNING.
SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...WITH
WAVES RUNNING 1 TO 3 FEET. VISIBILITY WILL BE GENERALLY
UNRESTRICTED BUT MAY DROP TO 3 TO MILES AT TIMES IN HEAVIER RAIN
SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...JMG/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1030 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM EDT THURSDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
AND WEATHER AS OF LATE MORNING TO INCORPORATE LATEST OBSERATIONAL
TRENDS. ANY CHANCE OF THUNDER GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS INTO THE SLV TODAY WHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONTINENTIAL AIRMASS FOSTERS SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY TODAY.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED THOUGH...MAINLY SHOWERS.
FURTHER EAST...MAINLY A COOL/MOIST/STABLE MARTIME AIRMASS FROM THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. DID OPT TO LOWER TEMPS
ACROSS OUR EASTERN VERMONT COUNTIES BY 2-4 DEGREES BASED OFF
LATEST TRENDS AND PERSISTENT/LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND TRAJECTORIES
OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE
SHOWING CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD ON AND OFF SHOWERY
WEATHER...WITH HIGHEST CONCENTRATION NORTH AND WEST. HAVE A GREAT
DAY. PRIOR DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUS...HAVE
GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR TODAY. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCE TO HAVE A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE IN THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
THROUGH FRIDAY ...SO SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE
SCALE PATTERN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN INCREASE
UNCERTAINTY FOR MIDWEEK. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND DEVELOPING 1022MB
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN A DRY SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD.
GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE EXPECT A LARGE SWING IN NIGHTTIME
LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S SLK/NEK TO
NEAR 50F WARMER VALLEYS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/LOWER 80S.
HAVE NOTED THE MEX AT SLK IS SUGGESTING 35F...WHICH MAYBE A LITTLE
COOL. OTHERWISE...AS SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE EAST...A RETURN
FLW OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AIR WL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. THIS SFC WARM FRNT AND WEAK S/W ENERGY MAY PRODUCE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEST CHC ACRS NORTHERN
ZNS. FOR TUES THRU WEDS...WESTERLY FLW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
VORTS WL MOVE ACRS OUR REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SOME AREAS OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE...WL RESULT IN SCHC/CHC POPS...WITH HIGHEST CHCS DURING
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HRS DURING PEAK HEATING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM
BTWN 14C AND 16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MTNS TO M80S
WARMER VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACRS ALL
OUR TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH EXCEPTION MVFR VIS
AT MPV. THINKING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL CONT THRU 15Z...BEFORE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION. RAP RH PROFILES SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
CONTS TO ADVECT ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH CIGS SLOWLY DECREASING TO
MVFR LVLS BY THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK/MPV.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES...AS CIGS DROP BTWN 1500 FEET AND 2500
FEET. GIVEN TRENDS IN SOUNDINGS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP BY 03Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT
MSS/MPV AND SLK. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS CONT
OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS AT MSS. SOME GUSTS BTWN 15 AND
20 KNTS WL BE POSSIBLE AT RUT BTWN 12Z-18Z TODAY...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW CIGS. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DROP VIS TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. A SLOW
IMPROVING TREND IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND DEVELOPING SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD SOME AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. VFR WITH HIGH PRES
PREVAILS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO
25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WAVES RUNNING 1 TO
3 FEET. VISIBILITY WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO 3 TO MILES AT TIMES
IN RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...JMG/WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1018 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL COMPLEX WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF WET
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S AND 80S.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1010 AM UPDATE...
SO FAR THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADARS ONLY SHOWING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BGM FCST AREA. MAIN CONCERNS
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON REMAIN FOCUSED ON LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS PWAT VALUES REMAIN VERY HIGH /2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/. RIGHT NOW...MAIN THING GOING AGAINST
ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE THE CONTINUED LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISMS. THAT SAID...FCST MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SFC WARM FRONT THAT
REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OFF TO OUR WEST WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HELP INITIATE ACTIVITY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SUGGESTS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING LATER TODAY AND THUS HAVE
ELECTED TO MAINTAIN A NUMEROUS SHWR MENTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
BEST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-81
CORRIDOR WHERE FCST MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
RESIDE. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES NEEDED AT THE PRESENT TIME.
AT 400 AM...LOCAL RADARS SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE AREAL COVERAGE CONTINUING
TO SLOWLY DECREASE.
THROUGH TONIGHT, A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND UPPER LEVEL TROF
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE TN VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS
THROUGH THE PERIOD RANGING FROM 1.50-1.80 INCHES ALONG WITH WARM
CLOUD LAYER AROUND 10K FT. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES IN THE SOUTHERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
ACTIVITY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN
NUMEROUS THROUGH EVENING. DUE TO CONTINUED E/SE COOL/STABLE LOW
LEVEL FLOW CAPE WILL BE LIMITED AGAIN TODAY WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY
OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION BUT EVEN HERE ONLY A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG. WILL MENTION SCATTERED TRW WEST OF I81 AND ISOLATED EAST.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S IN THE FINGER
LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER WITH UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY, A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROF NOW OVER NRN MINNESOTA
WILL DROP THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES AND PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA FROM MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
JUICY UNTIL FROPA SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. CAPE
VALUES ARE BETTER GENERALLY 400-800 J/KG BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TALL/SKINNY CAPE WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH
NON IMPRESSIVE BULK SHEAR VALES AND MID LEVEL FLOW INDICATES
LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, WILL KEEP MENTION IN
HWO FOR MINOR FLOOD CONCERNS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. AFTER LINGERING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN PTN OF CWA FRIDAY EVENING PERIOD WILL BE DRY
AND MAINLY CLEAR. MAXES ON SAT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN VCNTY RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
700 AM EDT UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST....
PREVIOUS FORECAST...
FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS
WELL-ENTRENCHED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN FIRM CONTROL. TEMPS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPPER
RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY EARLY WEEK
AS SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES BEGIN TRACKING EAST ALONG A
STALLED FRONT DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD AS FEATURE REMAINS STALLED TO
OUR NORTH.
IN TERMS OF TEMPS...STRONG WARM ADVECTION EARLY WEEK SHOULD ALLOW
LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERHAPS
WEDNESDAY. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...A FEW NEAR 90 DEGREE READINGS
APPEAR POSSIBLE AS STALLED FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PROPAGATE TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WHOLE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL BE
SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE AND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL
REMAIN MVFR EXPECT FOR KSYR AND KRME. KSYR AND KRME ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT VFR. KBGM WILL HAVE PERIODS OF IFR DURING THE MORNING
HOURS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR AROUND 14Z. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS SO DECIDED
TO KEEP OUT OF TAF. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
BECOME LIGHTER AFTER SUNSET. CIGS MAY DETERIORATE FRIDAY MORNING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THUS DECIDED TO KEEP IFR OUT OF TAF ATTM.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM SHWRS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY DURG
THE AFTN/EVE HRS.
SAT...BECOMING VFR.
SUN...VFR.
MON...VFR. CHC TSRA.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...CMG/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...CMG/KAH
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
737 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 731 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING PLENTY
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS THIS COVERED WELL...SO JUST UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING
SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PLENTY OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
FOR TODAY. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO
HAVE A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
THROUGH FRIDAY ...SO SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE
SCALE PATTERN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN INCREASE
UNCERTAINTY FOR MIDWEEK. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND DEVELOPING 1022MB
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN A DRY SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD.
GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE EXPECT A LARGE SWING IN NIGHTTIME
LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S SLK/NEK TO
NEAR 50F WARMER VALLEYS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/LOWER 80S.
HAVE NOTED THE MEX AT SLK IS SUGGESTING 35F...WHICH MAYBE A LITTLE
COOL. OTHERWISE...AS SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE EAST...A RETURN
FLW OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AIR WL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. THIS SFC WARM FRNT AND WEAK S/W ENERGY MAY PRODUCE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEST CHC ACRS NORTHERN
ZNS. FOR TUES THRU WEDS...WESTERLY FLW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
VORTS WL MOVE ACRS OUR REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SOME AREAS OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE...WL RESULT IN SCHC/CHC POPS...WITH HIGHEST CHCS DURING
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HRS DURING PEAK HEATING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM
BTWN 14C AND 16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MTNS TO M80S
WARMER VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACRS ALL
OUR TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH EXCEPTION MVFR VIS
AT MPV. THINKING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL CONT THRU 15Z...BEFORE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION. RAP RH PROFILES SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
CONTS TO ADVECT ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH CIGS SLOWLY DECREASING TO
MVFR LVLS BY THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK/MPV.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES...AS CIGS DROP BTWN 1500 FEET AND 2500
FEET. GIVEN TRENDS IN SOUNDINGS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP BY 03Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT
MSS/MPV AND SLK. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS CONT
OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS AT MSS. SOME GUSTS BTWN 15 AND
20 KNTS WL BE POSSIBLE AT RUT BTWN 12Z-18Z TODAY...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW CIGS. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DROP VIS TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. A SLOW
IMPROVING TREND IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND DEVELOPING SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD SOME AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. VFR WITH HIGH PRES
PREVAILS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO
25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WAVES RUNNING 1 TO
3 FEET. VISIBILITY WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO 3 TO MILES AT TIMES
IN RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
731 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 731 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING PLENTY
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS THIS COVERED WELL...SO JUST UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING
SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PLENTY OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HAVE INCLUDED A
MENTION OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
FOR TODAY. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO
HAVE A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
THROUGH FRIDAY ...SO SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE
SCALE PATTERN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN INCREASE
UNCERTAINTY FOR MIDWEEK. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND DEVELOPING 1022MB
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN A DRY SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD.
GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE EXPECT A LARGE SWING IN NIGHTTIME
LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S SLK/NEK TO
NEAR 50F WARMER VALLEYS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/LOWER 80S.
HAVE NOTED THE MEX AT SLK IS SUGGESTING 35F...WHICH MAYBE A LITTLE
COOL. OTHERWISE...AS SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE EAST...A RETURN
FLW OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AIR WL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. THIS SFC WARM FRNT AND WEAK S/W ENERGY MAY PRODUCE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEST CHC ACRS NORTHERN
ZNS. FOR TUES THRU WEDS...WESTERLY FLW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
VORTS WL MOVE ACRS OUR REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SOME AREAS OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE...WL RESULT IN SCHC/CHC POPS...WITH HIGHEST CHCS DURING
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HRS DURING PEAK HEATING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM
BTWN 14C AND 16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MTNS TO M80S
WARMER VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACRS ALL
OUR TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH EXCEPTION MVFR
VIS AT SLK IN HEAVIER DOWNPOUR. THINKING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL
CONT THRU 12Z...BEFORE A BREAK IN THE ACTION. RAP RH PROFILES SHOW
DEEP MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH CIGS SLOWLY
DECREASING TO MVFR LVLS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT
MSS/SLK/MPV. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES...AS CIGS DROP BTWN 1500 FEET
AND 2500 FEET. GIVEN TRENDS IN SOUNDINGS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP BY 03Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT
MSS/MPV AND SLK. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS CONT
OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS AT MSS. SOME GUSTS BTWN 15 AND
20 KNTS WL BE POSSIBLE AT RUT BTWN 12Z-18Z TODAY...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW CIGS. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DROP VIS TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. A SLOW
IMPROVING TREND IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND DEVELOPING SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD SOME AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. VFR WITH HIGH PRES
PREVAILS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO
25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WAVES RUNNING 1 TO
3 FEET. VISIBILITY WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO 3 TO MILES AT TIMES
IN RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
729 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR TODAY. BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO HAVE A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
THROUGH FRIDAY ...SO SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE
SCALE PATTERN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN INCREASE
UNCERTAINTY FOR MIDWEEK. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND DEVELOPING 1022MB
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN A DRY SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD.
GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE EXPECT A LARGE SWING IN NIGHTTIME
LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S SLK/NEK TO
NEAR 50F WARMER VALLEYS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/LOWER 80S.
HAVE NOTED THE MEX AT SLK IS SUGGESTING 35F...WHICH MAYBE A LITTLE
COOL. OTHERWISE...AS SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE EAST...A RETURN
FLW OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AIR WL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. THIS SFC WARM FRNT AND WEAK S/W ENERGY MAY PRODUCE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEST CHC ACRS NORTHERN
ZNS. FOR TUES THRU WEDS...WESTERLY FLW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
VORTS WL MOVE ACRS OUR REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SOME AREAS OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE...WL RESULT IN SCHC/CHC POPS...WITH HIGHEST CHCS DURING
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HRS DURING PEAK HEATING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM
BTWN 14C AND 16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MTNS TO M80S
WARMER VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACRS ALL
OUR TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH EXCEPTION MVFR VIS
AT MPV. THINKING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL CONT THRU 15Z...BEFORE A
BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION. RAP RH PROFILES SHOW DEEP MOISTURE
CONTS TO ADVECT ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH CIGS SLOWLY DECREASING TO
MVFR LVLS BY THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT MSS/SLK/MPV.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES...AS CIGS DROP BTWN 1500 FEET AND 2500
FEET. GIVEN TRENDS IN SOUNDINGS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP BY 03Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT
MSS/MPV AND SLK. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS CONT
OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS AT MSS. SOME GUSTS BTWN 15 AND
20 KNTS WL BE POSSIBLE AT RUT BTWN 12Z-18Z TODAY...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CIGS. IN
ADDITION...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WL
CONT...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DROP VIS TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. A SLOW IMPROVING TREND
IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. GIVEN
RECENT RAINFALL AND DEVELOPING SFC HIGH PRES OVERHEAD SOME AREAS
OF FOG/BR WITH IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. VFR WITH HIGH PRES PREVAILS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO
25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WAVES RUNNING 1 TO
3 FEET. VISIBILITY WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO 3 TO MILES AT TIMES
IN RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
502 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUS...HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR TODAY. BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO HAVE A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. BUFKIT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
THROUGH FRIDAY ...SO SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES. HAVE GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE
SCALE PATTERN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN INCREASE
UNCERTAINTY FOR MIDWEEK. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND DEVELOPING 1022MB
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN A DRY SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD.
GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE EXPECT A LARGE SWING IN NIGHTTIME
LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S SLK/NEK TO
NEAR 50F WARMER VALLEYS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/LOWER 80S.
HAVE NOTED THE MEX AT SLK IS SUGGESTING 35F...WHICH MAYBE A LITTLE
COOL. OTHERWISE...AS SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE EAST...A RETURN
FLW OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AIR WL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. THIS SFC WARM FRNT AND WEAK S/W ENERGY MAY PRODUCE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEST CHC ACRS NORTHERN
ZNS. FOR TUES THRU WEDS...WESTERLY FLW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
VORTS WL MOVE ACRS OUR REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SOME AREAS OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE...WL RESULT IN SCHC/CHC POPS...WITH HIGHEST CHCS DURING
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HRS DURING PEAK HEATING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM
BTWN 14C AND 16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MTNS TO M80S
WARMER VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACRS ALL
OUR TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH EXCEPTION MVFR
VIS AT SLK IN HEAVIER DOWNPOUR. THINKING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL
CONT THRU 12Z...BEFORE A BREAK IN THE ACTION. RAP RH PROFILES SHOW
DEEP MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH CIGS SLOWLY
DECREASING TO MVFR LVLS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT
MSS/SLK/MPV. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES...AS CIGS DROP BTWN 1500 FEET
AND 2500 FEET. GIVEN TRENDS IN SOUNDINGS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP BY 03Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT
MSS/MPV AND SLK. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS CONT
OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS AT MSS. SOME GUSTS BTWN 15 AND
20 KNTS WL BE POSSIBLE AT RUT BTWN 12Z-18Z TODAY...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW CIGS. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DROP VIS TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. A SLOW
IMPROVING TREND IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND DEVELOPING SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD SOME AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. VFR WITH HIGH PRES
PREVAILS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO
25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WAVES RUNNING 1 TO
3 FEET. VISIBILITY WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO 3 TO MILES AT TIMES
IN RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
431 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM PENNSYLVANIA.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL. MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN A FEW LOCATIONS BASED
ON CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH UNSETTLED
SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE. QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA INTO FRIDAY. UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. WITH DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUING...WE CAN EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES
THURSDAY AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY...SO CHANCES FOR SOME
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL EXIST. BUT LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING
MECHANISM FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN OR FLOODING CONCERNS. DUE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
FORCING...THREAT OF THUNDER RATHER LOW THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED FOR SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH NEARS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH RATHER
QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.
RATHER HIGH POPS PREFERRED FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 1 INCH TO AS MUCH AS 2.5 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. MAX TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. RATHER MILD
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE
SCALE PATTERN FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN INCREASE
UNCERTAINTY FOR MIDWEEK. MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND DEVELOPING 1022MB
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD WL RESULT IN A DRY SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD.
GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE EXPECT A LARGE SWING IN NIGHTTIME
LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS. LOWS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S SLK/NEK TO
NEAR 50F WARMER VALLEYS...WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S/LOWER 80S.
HAVE NOTED THE MEX AT SLK IS SUGGESTING 35F...WHICH MAYBE A LITTLE
COOL. OTHERWISE...AS SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE EAST...A RETURN
FLW OF WARM AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AIR WL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. THIS SFC WARM FRNT AND WEAK S/W ENERGY MAY PRODUCE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BEST CHC ACRS NORTHERN
ZNS. FOR TUES THRU WEDS...WESTERLY FLW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED
VORTS WL MOVE ACRS OUR REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND SOME AREAS OF ENHANCED MID LVL
MOISTURE...WL RESULT IN SCHC/CHC POPS...WITH HIGHEST CHCS DURING
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HRS DURING PEAK HEATING. PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM
BTWN 14C AND 16C...SUPPORTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S MTNS TO M80S
WARMER VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACRS ALL
OUR TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH EXCEPTION MVFR
VIS AT SLK IN HEAVIER DOWNPOUR. THINKING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL
CONT THRU 12Z...BEFORE A BREAK IN THE ACTION. RAP RH PROFILES SHOW
DEEP MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH CIGS SLOWLY
DECREASING TO MVFR LVLS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT
MSS/SLK/MPV. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES...AS CIGS DROP BTWN 1500 FEET
AND 2500 FEET. GIVEN TRENDS IN SOUNDINGS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP BY 03Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT
MSS/MPV AND SLK. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS CONT
OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS AT MSS. SOME GUSTS BTWN 15 AND
20 KNTS WL BE POSSIBLE AT RUT BTWN 12Z-18Z TODAY...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW CIGS. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DROP VIS TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. A SLOW
IMPROVING TREND IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND DEVELOPING SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD SOME AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. VFR WITH HIGH PRES
PREVAILS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH
EXISTS BETWEEN SFC HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS HELPING TO PRODUCE
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE AT THESE SPEEDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
WAVES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE PRIMARILY IMPACTING OPEN
AREAS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LAKE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
138 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED SHOWERY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FAIR
AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 127 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM PENNSYLVANIA.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL. MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT IN A FEW LOCATIONS BASED
ON CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 341 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH UNSETTLED
SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE. QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA INTO FRIDAY. UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. WITH DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUING...WE CAN EXPECT THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES
THURSDAY AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY...SO CHANCES FOR SOME
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL EXIST. BUT LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING
MECHANISM FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN OR FLOODING CONCERNS. DUE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
FORCING...THREAT OF THUNDER RATHER LOW THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED FOR SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE THUNDER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH NEARS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH RATHER
QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.
RATHER HIGH POPS PREFERRED FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 1 INCH TO AS MUCH AS 2.5 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. MAX TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. RATHER MILD
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT ON SATURDAY FOLLOWING
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND PASS WELL NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE
TUESDAY. SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS OUR CWA MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE A
MAINLY DRY FORECAST FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN CHANCE
POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SOME
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED
THIS MENTION AT THIS TIME. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM LATE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT NEAR NORMAL BUT TREND ABOVE NORMAL
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...CRNT RADAR SHOWS OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACRS ALL
OUR TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH EXCEPTION MVFR
VIS AT SLK IN HEAVIER DOWNPOUR. THINKING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WL
CONT THRU 12Z...BEFORE A BREAK IN THE ACTION. RAP RH PROFILES SHOW
DEEP MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT ACRS OUR TAF SITES WITH CIGS SLOWLY
DECREASING TO MVFR LVLS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT
MSS/SLK/MPV. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP THIS AFTN...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES...AS CIGS DROP BTWN 1500 FEET
AND 2500 FEET. GIVEN TRENDS IN SOUNDINGS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP BY 03Z FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT
MSS/MPV AND SLK. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS CONT
OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHEAST SFC WINDS AT MSS. SOME GUSTS BTWN 15 AND
20 KNTS WL BE POSSIBLE AT RUT BTWN 12Z-18Z TODAY...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW CIGS. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WL CONT...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY DROP VIS TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. A SLOW
IMPROVING TREND IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND DEVELOPING SFC HIGH PRES
OVERHEAD SOME AREAS OF FOG/BR WITH IFR CONDITIONS WL BE POSSIBLE
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY MPV/SLK. VFR WITH HIGH PRES
PREVAILS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH
EXISTS BETWEEN SFC HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS HELPING TO PRODUCE
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE AT THESE SPEEDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
WAVES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE PRIMARILY IMPACTING OPEN
AREAS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LAKE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...NEILES/TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
145 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN
STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM THURSDAY...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS....WITH
OBSERVED PW OVER 2 INCHES AND LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL DEPTH AROUND 10K
FT. WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING AND LIFTING...WITH BETTER
EARLY HEATING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE COINCIDENT WITH THE DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE IS LEADING TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HEAVY SHOWERS ALREADY...WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO TRAIN FROM WILSON NORTH TOWARD ROANOKE RAPIDS.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS MLCAPE RISES TOWARD 1000 J/KG
WITHOUT ANY CINH. YESTERDAYS RAINFALL WAS HEAVIEST NORTH OF HWY
64...AND THOSE AREAS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING
TODAY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH
PER HOUR. EARLY ON THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AND CLOUD COVER/SLOW DESTABILIZATION...BUT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR OVER UPSTATE SC THAT WILL
LIKELY INCREASE DCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR SHOW SOME
DEVELOPMENT BACK TOWARD THE KCLT/KGSP AREA AFTER 18Z...SO THERE MAY
BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE APPROACHING THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WILL BE ADJUSTING LIKELY POPS TO BE
HIGHEST OVER THE EAST THIS MORNING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. HIGHS
MOSTLY 83-88. -BLS
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS...A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...WITH PWAT VALUES RANGING
FROM 1.4-1.7 INCHES (HIGHEST ACROSS THE EAST). GIVEN THIS AND THE
FACT THAT THE BEST DPVA IS PROGGED TO ALSO BE ACROSS THE EAST...THIS
IS WHERE THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED.
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE...WITH MLCAPE BELOW
1000 J/KG...THEREFORE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A CONCERN. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
AREA...IN ADDITION TO THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. TEMPS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE/MCV ORIGINATING FROM THE DEVELOPING
MCS OVER ARKLATEX ATTM WILL ADVANCE ESEWD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS/DEEP SOUTH LATE FRIDAY. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CORRALLED BY THE EXPANSION OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION INITIALLY FOCUSED ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT
NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE THE FRONT WASHES
OUT WITH MORE EQUITABLE...DIURNAL CONVECTION AREA-WIDE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
BUILDING HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A RISE FROM NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN...NOW EAST OF
KRWI...WILL GIVE WAY TO A PERIOD OF MARGINALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER UP STATE SC ARE MOVING TOWARD THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND MAY ENCROACH UPON KINT/KGSO BY 21Z. IT REMAINS
A LITTLE UNCERTAIN HOW STRONG THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE...BUT
A PERIOD OF AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
FURTHER EAST...THE VERY MOISTURE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MAY REACH VICINITY OF
KFAY/KRDU AND KRWI THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPEPR
DISTURBANCE...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE.
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL THEN BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATUS AND FOG...WHICH SEEMS MOST LIKE FROM KRDU TO KRWI BASED ON
RAINFALL SO FAR TODAY.
OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRD/MWS
NEAR TERM...KRD/BLS
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...BLS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1010 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN
STALL OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM THURSDAY...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL NC THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS....WITH
OBSERVED PW OVER 2 INCHES AND LCL TO FREEZING LEVEL DEPTH AROUND 10K
FT. WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING AND LIFTING...WITH BETTER
EARLY HEATING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE COINCIDENT WITH THE DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE IS LEADING TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HEAVY SHOWERS ALREADY...WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO TRAIN FROM WILSON NORTH TOWARD ROANOKE RAPIDS.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS MLCAPE RISES TOWARD 1000 J/KG
WITHOUT ANY CINH. YESTERDAYS RAINFALL WAS HEAVIEST NORTH OF HWY
64...AND THOSE AREAS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING
TODAY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH
PER HOUR. EARLY ON THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AND CLOUD COVER/SLOW DESTABILIZATION...BUT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR OVER UPSTATE SC THAT WILL
LIKELY INCREASE DCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE SPC WRF AND HRRR SHOW SOME
DEVELOPMENT BACK TOWARD THE KCLT/KGSP AREA AFTER 18Z...SO THERE MAY
BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE APPROACHING THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WILL BE ADJUSTING LIKELY POPS TO BE
HIGHEST OVER THE EAST THIS MORNING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. HIGHS
MOSTLY 83-88. -BLS
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS...A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...WITH PWAT VALUES RANGING
FROM 1.4-1.7 INCHES (HIGHEST ACROSS THE EAST). GIVEN THIS AND THE
FACT THAT THE BEST DPVA IS PROGGED TO ALSO BE ACROSS THE EAST...THIS
IS WHERE THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED.
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE...WITH MLCAPE BELOW
1000 J/KG...THEREFORE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A CONCERN. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
AREA...IN ADDITION TO THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONT. TEMPS
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...
A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVE/MCV ORIGINATING FROM THE DEVELOPING
MCS OVER ARKLATEX ATTM WILL ADVANCE ESEWD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS/DEEP SOUTH LATE FRIDAY. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...CORRALLED BY THE EXPANSION OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION INITIALLY FOCUSED ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT
NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE THE FRONT WASHES
OUT WITH MORE EQUITABLE...DIURNAL CONVECTION AREA-WIDE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
BUILDING HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A RISE FROM NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM THURSDAY...
PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
SCATTER OUT/LIFT THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
(BUT STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES) RETURNING BY THE MID MORNING HOURS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST. IF A STORM IMPACTS A TERMINAL...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD
OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
LESS...SO WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS/FOG IS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...EXPECT A CONTINUED HIGHER THAN AVERAGE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRD/MWS
NEAR TERM...KRD/BLS
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...KRD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1010 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE POPS AND ADD/MAINTAIN SEVERE WORDING
WEST AND CENTRAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
TRIMMED POPS BACK A BIT NORTHWEST WHERE SHORT RANGE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION EARLY
THIS EVENING. THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EARLY THIS EVENING
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND CONVECTION
CHANCES. ALSO STRONG WINDS WITH CURRENT WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT.
REGARDING WIND ADVISORY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT ADVISORY. WESTERN
COUNTIES DROP OFF AT 4PM. SOUTH CENTRAL WILL REMAIN IN THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM.
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SO WILL UTILIZE A
BROAD BRUSHED APPROACH IN GENERAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT HIGHLIGHTING THE BETTER POTENTIAL IN THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL...IN ADDITION TO
THE ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LATEST HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
ONGOING CONVECTION AND ITS LATEST OUTPUT LOOKS REASONABLE WITH TWO
AREAS OF CONVECTION...ONE TRACKING FROM EAST CENTRAL MONTANA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER AREA OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...ALONG THE ND/SD/BORDER.
CURRENTLY...ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE OVER EASTERN
MONTANA NEAR THE LOCATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH. MU-CAPES ARE
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG OVER THE MONDAY REGION...WITH INCREASING LOW
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CAPPED ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BUT NOT FAR INTO MONTANA...THE 18Z RUN OF THE RAP SHOWS THE
CAP BREAKING AROUND 21-22 UTC. CAP THEN BECOMES NEGLIGIBLE OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...OPENING THE DOOR TO POSSIBLE CONVECTION.
THE BEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR LOOKS TO BE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAX
INSOLATION AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH STRONG CAPES THIS
AREA IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. THUS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WITH SUCH STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND INCREASING HAIL CAPES...THE MAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE FARTHER WEST IN MONTANA/WYOMING MAY
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS WHICH MAY TRACK ALONG THE NORTH
DAKOTA SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES WILL RESIDE OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AND INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL WANE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z SUNDAY.
JET SUPPORT WEAKENS AS WELL ALLOWING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO END
OVERNIGHT. WILL THEN AWAIT FOR THE MAIN UPPER LOW/COLD POCKET IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
TO NOSE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE
BEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR. HENCE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY SHOWER
MENTION WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSHOWERS EXTENDING FROM NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH FROM THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY NIGHT...MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS DEVELOP LEADING TO A DRY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS 500MB PATTERN
FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND HAS NOW SHIFTED AWAY FROM A DEVELOPING RIDGE
AND IS IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM FROM PREVIOUS/CURRENT RUNS. THUS
CONFIDENCE GROWING WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DAILY AND INCREASING THROUGH FRIDAY. A PERSISTENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW UNFOLDS
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
HAZARDS TO AVIATION TONIGHT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY
AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM KBIS-KJMS IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
EARLY SATURDAY. SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN MONTANA
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES EAST. SOME
UNCERTAINTY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 10Z...BUT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS KJMS AREA POSSIBLE...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE AT THIS
TIME. WENT NO LOWER THAN MVFR...BUT IFR A POSSIBILITY KBIS-KJMS IF
SHOWERS MORE WIDESPREAD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
646 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
TRIMMED POPS BACK A BIT NORTHWEST WHERE SHORT RANGE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION EARLY
THIS EVENING. THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EARLY THIS EVENING
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND CONVECTION
CHANCES. ALSO STRONG WINDS WITH CURRENT WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT.
REGARDING WIND ADVISORY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT ADVISORY. WESTERN
COUNTIES DROP OFF AT 4PM. SOUTH CENTRAL WILL REMAIN IN THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM.
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SO WILL UTILIZE A
BROAD BRUSHED APPROACH IN GENERAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT HIGHLIGHTING THE BETTER POTENTIAL IN THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL...IN ADDITION TO
THE ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LATEST HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
ONGOING CONVECTION AND ITS LATEST OUTPUT LOOKS REASONABLE WITH TWO
AREAS OF CONVECTION...ONE TRACKING FROM EAST CENTRAL MONTANA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER AREA OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...ALONG THE ND/SD/BORDER.
CURRENTLY...ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE OVER EASTERN
MONTANA NEAR THE LOCATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH. MU-CAPES ARE
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG OVER THE MONDAY REGION...WITH INCREASING LOW
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CAPPED ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BUT NOT FAR INTO MONTANA...THE 18Z RUN OF THE RAP SHOWS THE
CAP BREAKING AROUND 21-22 UTC. CAP THEN BECOMES NEGLIGIBLE OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...OPENING THE DOOR TO POSSIBLE CONVECTION.
THE BEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR LOOKS TO BE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAX
INSOLATION AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH STRONG CAPES THIS
AREA IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. THUS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WITH SUCH STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND INCREASING HAIL CAPES...THE MAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE FARTHER WEST IN MONTANA/WYOMING MAY
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS WHICH MAY TRACK ALONG THE NORTH
DAKOTA SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES WILL RESIDE OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AND INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL WANE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z SUNDAY.
JET SUPPORT WEAKENS AS WELL ALLOWING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO END
OVERNIGHT. WILL THEN AWAIT FOR THE MAIN UPPER LOW/COLD POCKET IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
TO NOSE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE
BEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR. HENCE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY SHOWER
MENTION WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSHOWERS EXTENDING FROM NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH FROM THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY NIGHT...MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS DEVELOP LEADING TO A DRY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS 500MB PATTERN
FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND HAS NOW SHIFTED AWAY FROM A DEVELOPING RIDGE
AND IS IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM FROM PREVIOUS/CURRENT RUNS. THUS
CONFIDENCE GROWING WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DAILY AND INCREASING THROUGH FRIDAY. A PERSISTENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW UNFOLDS
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
HAZARDS TO AVIATION TONIGHT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM KBIS-KJMS IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY.
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN MONTANA WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...IMPACTING KDIK BY 02-04Z. SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 08Z...THEN MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN
SHOWERS AFTER 10Z KBIS-KJMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 10Z...BUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS KJMS AREA POSSIBLE...BUT DID
NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WENT NO LOWER THAN MVFR...BUT IFR A
POSSIBILITY KBIS-KJMS IF SHOWERS MORE WIDESPREAD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ019>022-034>036-042-045>047-050.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1051 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.AVIATION...
MAIN AVIATION ISSUES WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... AND THE
CHANCE OF STRATUS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
BE AT KSPS... BUT THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE NORTHERN END OF THE THUNDERSTORM LINE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
WITH THE STORMS REMAINING SOUTH OF KSPS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
TRENDS... BUT AT THIS MOMENT DO NOT THINK THE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
STORMS AT KSPS /OR ANY OF THE TAF SITES/ IS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A TEMPO GROUP.
THE LATEST SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH STRATUS
REDEVELOPMENT AND THE TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS DO SHOW HIGH
LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT UNANIMOUS IN THE MODEL
WORLD AS THE HRRR BELIEVES THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AND A
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SITUATION LAST NIGHT DID NOT PRODUCE ANY SUB-VFR
CIGS AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... THERE APPEARS TO
BE ENOUGH SIGNAL THAT WE WILL LIKELY INCLUDE TEMPO OR PREVAILING
MVFR CIGS IN THE 06Z TAFS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014/
UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT NORTHERN EDGE OF STORM COMPLEX
STRUGGLING ATTM. MAY NOT GET MORE THAN TRACE OR A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OUT OF IT OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...BUT PORTIONS OF OUR NORTH
TEXAS COUNTIES...PRIMARILY IN THE CROWELL TO BENJAMIN AND KNOX
CITY AREAS SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WITH GUSTY WINDS.
WITH LINE ALREADY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO ENVIRONMENT WITH
INCREASING SURFACE BASED STABILITY...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF POPS/WX/SKY GRIDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART
OF CWA...NO OTHER CHANGES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 67 91 72 92 / 0 10 20 30
HOBART OK 68 92 71 93 / 20 10 20 30
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 94 73 94 / 40 10 10 10
GAGE OK 68 92 68 91 / 20 20 30 10
PONCA CITY OK 66 89 73 90 / 0 10 20 30
DURANT OK 68 89 73 89 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
252 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT MCS HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STILL LINGERS ACROSS
FAR SE OK WITH DIFFUSE SYNOPTIC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS ECNTRL OK. HAVE
NOTED ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW OF
THESE WILL BECOME STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION...WITH STORMS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING. SFC RIDGE AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR
WILL FILTER SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH RATHER PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS RETURNING AS
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST.
SWLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATER THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.
ECMWF/GFS SIMILAR IN SWINGING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO
PLAINS...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SOME SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN N OF INTERSTATE 40.
ECMWF/GFS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF
KEEPING THE UPPER LOW MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS...THUS
MAINTAINING MORE RIDGING CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE OPTED TO
LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF/GEM FOR NOW AND KEPT THE MID/LATE WEEK DRY
AND WARM FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 59 82 62 88 / 10 0 0 10
FSM 62 84 61 87 / 20 0 0 10
MLC 61 83 64 87 / 20 0 0 10
BVO 55 81 59 87 / 10 0 0 10
FYV 55 78 55 83 / 10 0 0 10
BYV 56 77 54 83 / 20 0 0 10
MKO 59 82 61 87 / 10 0 0 10
MIO 55 79 59 86 / 10 0 0 10
F10 59 82 64 87 / 10 0 0 10
HHW 64 85 64 88 / 30 0 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....18
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1134 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...
BRINGING SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE DAYS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS RETURNS LATER ON MONDAY...AS A STORM SYSTEM PULLS A
WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. MUCH OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS A WARM FRONT REMAINS JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME IT SHOULD
BE DRY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
RADAR LOOP AT 02Z SHOWS ONLY SCT -SHRA LEFT ACROSS EASTERN PA...AS
BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES IN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS. LG SCALE FORCING
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD SUSTAIN A FEW -SHRA WELL
INTO THE NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH RUNS FROM KELM TO KLBE AT
02Z. LATEST RAP TRACKS COLD FRONT TO A KIPT/KHGR LINE BY
MIDNIGHT...THEN EAST OF LANCASTER CO BY ARND 06Z.
NW FLOW WILL DELIVER A PUSH OF MUCH DRIER AIR LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING
CLEARING AND COOLER CONDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NW
MTNS...WHERE EVENING CLEARING WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MCLDY SKIES
LATER TONIGHT. UPPER TROF AND ASSOC POOL OF COOL AIR ALOFT IS
CREATING AN AREA OF STRATOCU THIS EVENING ACROSS E MICHIGAN AND S
ONTARIO...WHICH SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE NW MTNS LATER TONIGHT. AN
AN ACTIVE NW BREEZE AND THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER NOTED ABOVE
SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
MIN TEMPS AROUND DAYBREAK SAT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...RANGING FROM A CHILLY 45-50F ACROSS THE MTNS...TO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL IS JUST ABOUT HERE - ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WITH A SHOT OF REFRESHING CANADIAN AIR AND MUCH LOWER
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME FLAT CUMULUS...ESPECIALLY OVR THE N MTNS...WITH
LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZES INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. MDL 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S NORTH
TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES...AS A LOT OF MODEL SPREAD.
SOME CHANCE OF POCKETS OF FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH...AS GUIDANCE ABOUT 3 DEGREES COLDER NOW FOR
BFD...THEN THE OTHER DAY. DID LOWER TEMPS SOME FOR SAT NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ON LATER SHIFTS.
MODELS BRING IN MUCH WARMER AIR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOME
CHC OF A SHOWER OR STORM LATER MONDAY.
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME...FROM
TUE INTO FRI...AS A WARM FRONT REMAINS NEARBY...GIVEN NW FLOW
ALOFT. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO
THE TEMPS. HAVE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY...AND LOWEST AT
NIGHT.
KEY TO THE FCST IS HINTS ON MODELS THAT AN OMEGA BLOCK SEEMS
TO BE TRYING TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
OTHER INTERESTING THING IS THE GFS HAS A WARM CORE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE BY DAY 10.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FINALLY A BREAK IN THE STORMY WEATHER. OVERALL A NICE
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
THE MAIN CONCERNS EARLY ON WILL BE SOME FOG AT LNS
OVERNIGHT. FIXED THE CIG FCST AT 14Z ON THE 03Z TAFS.
SOME LOWER CIGS LATE ACROSS THE AREA...GIVEN A RATHER
STRONG SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH COLD AIR
FROM THE WEST SIDE OF HUDSON BAY.
DID NOT HIT THE FOG HARD AT BFD ETC...THINK THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH WIND AND CLDS. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH...AS
THE GROUND IS WET...AND TEMPS FCST TO DROP DOWN TO THE
DEWPOINTS.
DID HIT THE SC AND CU HARDER ON SAT...RATHER COLD AIR
MOVING SE FROM MI.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETS IN FROM THE SW LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS.
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH
A DAILY CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR.
MON-WED...VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1016 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO
THE EAST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...
BRINGING SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE DAYS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS RETURNS LATER ON MONDAY...AS A STORM SYSTEM PULLS A
WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA. MUCH OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS A WARM FRONT REMAINS JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME IT SHOULD
BE DRY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
RADAR LOOP AT 02Z SHOWS ONLY SCT -SHRA LEFT ACROSS EASTERN PA...AS
BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES IN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS. LG SCALE FORCING
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD SUSTAIN A FEW -SHRA WELL
INTO THE NIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WHICH RUNS FROM KELM TO KLBE AT
02Z. LATEST RAP TRACKS COLD FRONT TO A KIPT/KHGR LINE BY
MIDNIGHT...THEN EAST OF LANCASTER CO BY ARND 06Z.
NW FLOW WILL DELIVER A PUSH OF MUCH DRIER AIR LATER TONIGHT...BRINGING
CLEARING AND COOLER CONDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NW
MTNS...WHERE EVENING CLEARING WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MCLDY SKIES
LATER TONIGHT. UPPER TROF AND ASSOC POOL OF COOL AIR ALOFT IS
CREATING AN AREA OF STRATOCU THIS EVENING ACROSS E MICHIGAN AND S
ONTARIO...WHICH SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE NW MTNS LATER TONIGHT. AN
AN ACTIVE NW BREEZE AND THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER NOTED ABOVE
SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION ACROSS THE NW MTNS.
MIN TEMPS AROUND DAYBREAK SAT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS...RANGING FROM A CHILLY 45-50F ACROSS THE MTNS...TO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL IS JUST ABOUT HERE - ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WITH A SHOT OF REFRESHING CANADIAN AIR AND MUCH LOWER
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME FLAT CUMULUS...ESPECIALLY OVR THE N MTNS...WITH
LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZES INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. MDL 8H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S NORTH
TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES...AS A LOT OF MODEL SPREAD.
SOME CHANCE OF POCKETS OF FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH...AS GUIDANCE ABOUT 3 DEGREES COLDER NOW FOR
BFD...THEN THE OTHER DAY. DID LOWER TEMPS SOME FOR SAT NIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ON LATER SHIFTS.
MODELS BRING IN MUCH WARMER AIR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOME
CHC OF A SHOWER OR STORM LATER MONDAY.
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME...FROM
TUE INTO FRI...AS A WARM FRONT REMAINS NEARBY...GIVEN NW FLOW
ALOFT. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO
THE TEMPS. HAVE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY...AND LOWEST AT
NIGHT.
KEY TO THE FCST IS HINTS ON MODELS THAT AN OMEGA BLOCK SEEMS
TO BE TRYING TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
OTHER INTERESTING THING IS THE GFS HAS A WARM CORE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE SE BY DAY 10.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
BEEN UPDATING FCST SINCE MID AFT.
ANYWAY...EXPECT SOME FOG...BUT NOTHING REAL DENSE AT THIS
POINT...AS RATHER STRONG UPPER LVL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS LATE
TONIGHT...WILL LIKELY KICK UP THE WIND NOW AND THEN. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH...AS THE GROUND IS WET...AND TEMPS FCST TO DROP DOWN
TO THE DEWPOINTS.
DID HIT THE SC AND CU HARDER ON SAT...RATHER COLD AIR
MOVING SE FROM MI.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION SETS IN FROM THE SW LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS.
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE ON THE WARM SIDE...WITH
A DAILY CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR.
MON-WED...VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1026 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE FRIDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE DAYS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST TO START THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH AND CENTRAL/WESTERN GLAKS UPPER
TROF...AND IN BETWEEN THE ANOMALOUS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH 1.5"
TO 1.75" PW. OVERALL A SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC SETUP TO WED. WHILE
WE`RE LACKING THE LLJ WHICH ORGANIZED AND EMBOLDENED YDY
EVENING`S CONVECTION TODAY...BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS ELONGATED
UPPER TROF REACHES SOUTHEAST OH/WV LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THUS
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...WITH MAX INTENSITY AND COVERAGE FROM VERY LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING.
NO DISAGREEMENTS HERE WITH THE PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD THREAT
ASSESSMENT - THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND KEY INGREDIENTS
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN/FF WITH LOCALIZED INTENSE /1+" PER
HOUR/ RAIN RATES POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A QUICK 2-3" OVER A SHORT
DURATION. THE BACKGROUND MEAN FLOW /SOUTH-TO- NORTH/ WOULD ALSO
SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST TEMPORARY CELL TRAINING OR REPEAT
AREAS OF +RA. THERE ARE SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BTWN THE OPERATIONAL
AND HIRES MODELS..BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS ON POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE 00Z SPC SSEO DAY 1 MEAN PCPN SHOWS
AN AXIS OF 1-2" JUST EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...WITH LOCALIZED
2-3" AMTS OVER THE SCNTRL MTNS. THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING SHWR
CVRG INCR/DEVELOPING FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFT 15-16Z WITH MULTIPLE NWD
MOVG BANDS/CLUSTERS...PERHAPS ALIGNING A QPF AXIS JUST EAST OF
HIRES SSEO MEAN. NOTE: ONLY 6/7 SSEO MEMBERS WERE AVAILABLE FOR
THIS RUN. THE WPC DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAFL OUTLOOK PLACES ALL BUT THE
EXTREME ERN ZONES IN A SLGT RISK AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE HWO.
GIVEN THE ENHANCED RISK FOR FF...CURRENT FF WATCH FROM NOON UNTL
MIDNIGHT RETAINED. THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH- CENTRAL MTNS
ARE MOST VULNERABLE TO FF RISK...GIVEN YESTERDAYS LCL HVY RAIN AND
THUS LOWER FFG. IN ADDITION...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS AREA
BECOMING THE MOST UNSTABLE THIS AFTN...S/W OF DIFFUSE QSTNRY WARM
FRONT/SFC TROF WHICH APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE SUSQ.
RIVER. CLOUDS/NMRS SHOWERS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
70S WITH MUGGY OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE ONLY
OTHER ITEM TO TOUCH ON IS THE SPC DAY 1 SEE TEXT/5% SVR PROB WHICH
COVERS THE WRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. MOIST PROFILES WILL LEAD TO POOR
LAPSE RATES WITH ML CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. THE GENERAL
LACK OF INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LVL FLOW SUGGESTS AN
ISOLATED/MARGINAL WIND THREAT AT BEST WITH PEAK GUSTS IN ANY TSTM
CLUSTERS LKLY REMAINING SUB-SVR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MDL DATA INDICATES SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE AREA FRI AM
IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING UPPER TROF OVR THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE
FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHRA AND A
FEW TSRA IN HIGH PWAT/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVR CENTRAL
PA EARLY FRIDAY. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP APPEARS LIKELY AS
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE OF THE REGION. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE OVR THE NW MTNS ARND
MIDDAY AND REACH THE SE COUNTIES BY EARLY EVENING. MID LVL WINDS
AND SHEAR PROFILES NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...BUT GEFS OUTPUT INDICATES
DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE CAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES BY LATE IN THE DAY...IMPLYING THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
STORMS.
ALMOST NO MDL SPREAD WITH TIMING OF CDFRONT...WHICH SHOULD EXIT
THE SE ZONES BY LATE EVENING. NW FLOW WILL DELIVER A PUSH OF MUCH
DRIER AIR FRI NIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING AND COOLER CONDS. WHERE
PRES GRADIENT BECOMES WEAK LATE FRI NIGHT...PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
POSS OVR THE NW MTNS TOWARD DAWN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE THIS WEEKEND...LEADING TO
A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF FAIR WX...AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SE ACROSS THE
STATE. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY GO A BIT BLW NORMAL...ESP SAT NIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND NEGATIVE PWAT ANOMALIES PASS OVR THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WARMER AIR WILL RETURN SUN-TUE...AS HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE
E COAST. GEFS AND ECMWF ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS ARE NR 17C MON-
WED...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
GEFS/EC ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATE PA WILL BE ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE SE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED...DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...RING OF FIRE CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE MON-WED...AS HIGHER HUMIDITY WORKS BACK INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH
LIFR CONDS/NEAR AIRFIELD MINS OVER THE SERN AIRFIELDS MDT/LNS.
SHRWS/EMBDD TSTMS ARE FCST TO INCR FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN CVRG AFT
15-16Z PER COSPA ACRS THE W-CNTRL AIRSPACE...PERHAPS ALIGNING
ALONG OR NEAR SUBTLE SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT WAVERING OVER CENTRAL
PA.
CIGS SHOULD MARGINALLY IMPROVE TO HIGH END MVFR OR LOW VFR BY THE
AFTN. THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PREVAILING -SHRA WITH VCTS AT MOST
SITES. BRIEF IFR/LIFR VSBYS IN +RA ARE LKLY TO IMPACT AT LEAST A
FEW AIRFIELDS THIS AFTN. EXPECT SOME LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LKLY IFR CONDS OVER ERN SXNS/ZNY SECTOR.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...BCMG VFR/MVFR WITH SCT-NMRS SHWRS/TSTMS ASSOCD WITH COLD
FROPA.
SAT-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG. OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ010-017>019-
024>028-033>036-056-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...DEVOIR/STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
716 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA BY LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV/IR STLT IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING H5 TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES SSEWD THRU THE OH/TN VLYS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS EXHIBIT
LITTLE TO NO SPREAD IN BRINGING THIS ENERGY GRADUALLY EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE MID-ATLC STATES BY 12Z FRI. DEEP
LYRD SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID-LVL TROUGH...INCLUDING A STG
30+KT SSELY H85 JET OFF THE ATLC...WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN VERY HIGH
MSTR AVAILABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH PW VALUES BTWN 1.50-1.75
INCHES. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND KEY INGREDIENTS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN/FF WITH LOCALIZED INTENSE /1+" PER HOUR/
RAIN RATES RESULTING IN A QUICK 2-3" OVER A SHORT DURATION. THE
BACKGROUND MEAN FLOW /SOUTH-TO-NORTH/ WOULD ALSO SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF
AT LEAST TEMPORARY CELL TRAINING OR REPEAT AREAS OF +RA. THERE ARE
SOME QPF DIFFERENCES BTWN THE OPERATIONAL AND HIRES MODELS..BUT
THERE IS A CONSENSUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING PROBLEMS.
THE 00Z SPC SSEO DAY 1 MEAN PCPN SHOWS AN AXIS OF 1-2" JUST EAST
OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...WITH LOCALIZED 2-3" AMTS OVER THE SCNTRL
MTNS. THE LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING SHWR CVRG INCR/DEVELOPING FAIRLY
RAPIDLY AFT 15-16Z WITH MULTIPLE NWD MOVG BANDS/CLUSTERS...PERHAPS
ALIGNING A QPF AXIS JUST EAST OF HIRES SSEO MEAN. NOTE: ONLY 6/7
SSEO MEMBERS WERE AVAILABLE FOR THIS RUN. THE WPC DAY 1 EXCESSIVE
RAFL OUTLOOK PLACES ALL BUT THE EXTREME ERN ZONES IN A SLGT RISK
AND HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE HWO.
GIVEN THE ENHANCED RISK FOR FF...COORDINATED WITH PBZ/LWX/PHI ON A
FF WATCH FROM NOON UNTL MIDNIGHT. THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL MTNS ARE MOST VULNERABLE TO FF RISK...GIVEN YESTERDAYS LCL
HVY RAIN AND THUS LOWER FFG. IN ADDITION...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
AREA BECOMING THE MOST UNSTABLE THIS AFTN...S/W OF DIFFUSE QSTNRY
WARM FRONT/SFC TROF WHICH APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE
SUSQ. RIVER. CLOUDS/NMRS SHOWERS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 70S WITH MUGGY OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE ONLY
OTHER ITEM TO TOUCH ON IS THE SPC DAY 1 SEE TEXT/5% SVR PROB WHICH
COVERS THE WRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. MOIST PROFILES WILL LEAD TO POOR
LAPSE RATES WITH ML CAPE VALUES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. THE GENERAL
LACK OF INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LVL FLOW SUGGESTS AN
ISOLATED/MARGINAL WIND THREAT AT BEST WITH PEAK GUSTS IN ANY TSTM
CLUSTERS LKLY REMAINING SUB-SVR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MDL DATA INDICATES SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE AREA FRI AM
IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING UPPER TROF OVR THE GRT LKS. LG SCALE
FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHRA AND A
FEW TSRA IN HIGH PWAT/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVR CENTRAL
PA EARLY FRIDAY. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP APPEARS LIKELY AS
SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE OF THE REGION. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ARRIVE OVR THE NW MTNS ARND
MIDDAY AND REACH THE SE COUNTIES BY EARLY EVENING. MID LVL WINDS
AND SHEAR PROFILES NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...BUT GEFS OUTPUT INDICATES
DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE CAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN
COUNTIES BY LATE IN THE DAY...IMPLYING THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
STORMS.
ALMOST NO MDL SPREAD WITH TIMING OF CDFRONT...WHICH SHOULD EXIT
THE SE ZONES BY LATE EVENING. NW FLOW WILL DELIVER A PUSH OF MUCH
DRIER AIR FRI NIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING AND COOLER CONDS. WHERE
PRES GRADIENT BECOMES WEAK LATE FRI NIGHT...PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
POSS OVR THE NW MTNS TOWARD DAWN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE THIS WEEKEND...LEADING TO
A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF FAIR WX...AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SE ACROSS THE
STATE. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY GO A BIT BLW NORMAL...ESP SAT NIGHT...AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND NEGATIVE PWAT ANOMALIES PASS OVR THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WARMER AIR WILL RETURN SUN-TUE...AS HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE
E COAST. GEFS AND ECMWF ENS MEAN 8H TEMPS ARE NR 17C MON-
WED...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
GEFS/EC ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATE PA WILL BE ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE SE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED...DIURNALLY-DRIVEN...RING OF FIRE CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE MON-WED...AS HIGHER HUMIDITY WORKS BACK INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING...WITH
LIFR CONDS/NEAR AIRFIELD MINS OVER THE SERN AIRFIELDS MDT/LNS.
SHRWS/EMBDD TSTMS ARE FCST TO INCR FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN CVRG AFT
15-16Z PER COSPA ACRS THE W-CNTRL AIRSPACE...PERHAPS ALIGNING
ALONG OR NEAR SUBTLE SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT WAVERING OVER CENTRAL
PA.
CIGS SHOULD MARGINALLY IMPROVE TO HIGH END MVFR OR LOW VFR BY THE
AFTN. THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PREVAILING -SHRA WITH VCTS AT MOST
SITES. BRIEF IFR/LIFR VSBYS IN +RA ARE LKLY TO IMPACT AT LEAST A
FEW AIRFIELDS THIS AFTN. EXPECT SOME LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LKLY IFR CONDS OVER ERN SXNS/ZNY SECTOR.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...BCMG VFR/MVFR WITH SCT-NMRS SHWRS/TSTMS ASSOCD WITH COLD
FROPA.
SAT-SUN...PATCHY AM FOG. OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ010-017>019-024>028-033>036-056-057-059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
542 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SHIFTING EAST WITH WINDS HOLDING OR
SLIGHTLY DECREASING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1500 MDT.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. FIRST SHORT WAVE TROF HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE AREA CARRYING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH IT.
SECOND...SOMEWHAT STRONGER TROF IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS AFTN AND HELPING TO DIMINISH THE
STABILITY. A THIRD TROF WILL APPROACH TOMORROW GIVING CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FCST TO DVLP OVR SW SD IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL DVLPMNTS...AND THEN MOVE EAST WARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM SE MT ACROSS WRN SD...REPRESENTING A
WEAK WARM FRONT. THIS ZONE IS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONGER SFC TO 1 KM
SHEAR THAT COULD ENHANCE LOW LVL ROTATION IN SOME STORMS.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ADEQUATE CAPE AND SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR FOR
SVR STORMS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. INVERTED V PROG SOUNDINGS
AND CONSISTENT MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL SUGGEST QUITE
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL FOR THE DVLPG CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND THIS
EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL HAS INITIATED CONVECTION AT ABOUT THE
RIGHT TIME AND HAS CONSISTENTLY INTENSIFIED THE STORMS QUICKLY
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN OVR OUR WYOMING COUNTIES AND MOVED THE
STORMS QUICKLY E WARD INTO WRN SD. IN SPITE OF POTENTIAL FOR LOW
LVL ROTATION IN STORMS...THE LCLS ARE HIGH...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
TEMPERATURES WERE HELD CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO POTENTIALLY WET GROUND. SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOULD SEE DRYING OVER THE AREA AND AN END TO PRECIP. KEPT SOME
POPS IN FOR SATURDAY DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE APPROACH OF WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROF.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY
ON SUNDAY. WILL BE BREEZY/WINDY AS A RESULT FROM TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...AS GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF. THIS FEATURES UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DAILY
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SLOWER MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN
WARMER DAYS EARLY IN THE WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THE LAST HALF OF
THE WEEK IN MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...PATTERN STILL FAVORS
DAILY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 537 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH IFR VSBY/LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...BARBER
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1221 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION... ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE DEPTH CONTINUES
TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NVA WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BUT THEN AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE 10Z-16Z
TIMEFRAME. THE ACTIVITY DOES NOT LOOK HEAVY AND CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE IFR LEVELS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE EAST OF MIDDLE TN TODAY AND WILL BE REPLACE WITH A
WEAK SHORT TERM RIDGE. A DECREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE THE
TREND. BUT...ELEVATED MOISTURE STILL EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE CONTINUATION OF SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS WE CONTINUE TO WARM. HRRR SHOWS REDEVELOPMENT FOR
OUR EASTERN TWO THIRDS BY 1 PM OR SO. AFTERNOON CAPES WILL REACH
1000-1500 J/KG. FOR NOW...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS ACROSS
THE PLATEAU FROM 20 PERCENT TO 30 PERCENT.
OTW...TEMPS ALREADY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.
BNA IS OUTRUNNING LATEST GUIDANCE BY 2 DEGREES. WILL GO AHEAD AND
RAISE TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS.
SKY CONDITION LOOKS OK...SHOULD STAY PARTLY CLOUDY FOR TODAY.
UPDATE COMING OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
COLD POCKET AT 500 MBAR HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING SOUTHEASTERN AREAS DOWN INTERSTATE
24 TOWARDS CHATTANOOGA. MAY SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PLATEAU
AS COLD POCKET EXTENDS UP INTO THAT AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE CONVECTION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. COLD POCKET
ASSOCATED WITH UPPER TROUGH THATS BEEN A SLOW MOVER LAST SEVERAL
HOURS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1007 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE EAST OF MIDDLE TN TODAY AND WILL BE REPLACE WITH A
WEAK SHORT TERM RIDGE. A DECREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE THE
TREND. BUT...ELEVATED MOISTURE STILL EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE CONTINUATION OF SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS WE CONTINUE TO WARM. HRRR SHOWS REDEVELOPMENT FOR
OUR EASTERN TWO THIRDS BY 1 PM OR SO. AFTERNOON CAPES WILL REACH
1000-1500 J/KG. FOR NOW...WILL GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS ACROSS
THE PLATEAU FROM 20 PERCENT TO 30 PERCENT.
OTW...TEMPS ALREADY APPROACHING 80 DEGREES ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.
BNA IS OUTRUNNING LATEST GUIDANCE BY 2 DEGREES. WILL GO AHEAD AND
RAISE TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS.
SKY CONDITION LOOKS OK...SHOULD STAY PARTLY CLOUDY FOR TODAY.
UPDATE COMING OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
COLD POCKET AT 500 MBAR HAS STEEPENED LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING SOUTHEASTERN AREAS DOWN INTERSTATE
24 TOWARDS CHATTANOOGA. MAY SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PLATEAU
AS COLD POCKET EXTENDS UP INTO THAT AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE CONVECTION TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. COLD POCKET
ASSOCATED WITH UPPER TROUGH THATS BEEN A SLOW MOVER LAST SEVERAL
HOURS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
910 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR CLOUD COVER AND TO ADJUST MORNING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TEXAS
MCS AND DECAYING NORTHERN PORTION WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO
THE MIDSOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SO SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY
SUNNY. ALSO TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
FORECASTED THIS MORNING....OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
JAB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE MORNING LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...BUT NO WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL HELP KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...SO TEMPERATURES MIGHT FEEL
A FEW DEGREES WARMER. A LARGE MCS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND WILL TRACK IN OUR GENERAL DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH...AND DEPENDING ON
EXACTLY HOW THE MCS DEVELOPS AND WHERE IT TRACKS...THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...MY BET IS THAT THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIELDS US FROM AND PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE MCS SHOULD TRACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...BUT THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
GENERATE ITS OWN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT
ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...LIKELY TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG...OR
POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND. THE
MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF
I-40 AND EAST OF I-55 IN EAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH AND A BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS
BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE
RESULT...DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FRIDAYS
TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEAR
OUT...BUT BY SATURDAY...WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE DEEP
SOUTHEASTERN US WITH A BROAD TROUGH OUT WEST RESULTING IN WEAK
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
MORE LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDWEEK AS TEMPERATURES GET WARMER. HIGHS
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S. SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO
OFF OF GUIDANCE AGAIN BASED ON A WARM BIAS I HAVE OBSERVED
RECENTLY. LOOKS LIKE SUMMER HAS ARRIVED.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY... AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
NAM AND HRRR MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO THE JBR AREA AROUND 00Z...AND THE REMAINDER
OF THE MIDSOUTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR CONVECTIVE COLD POOL ORGANIZATION AND
POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS TO BECOME FORWARD PROPAGATING THIS
AFTERNOON. IF SO... TSRA COULD ARRIVE TO THE MIDSOUTH A LITTLE
EARLIER THAN FORECASTED IN THE 12Z TAFS.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
654 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE MORNING LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...BUT NO WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL HELP KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...SO TEMPERATURES MIGHT FEEL
A FEW DEGREES WARMER. A LARGE MCS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND WILL TRACK IN OUR GENERAL DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH...AND DEPENDING ON
EXACTLY HOW THE MCS DEVELOPS AND WHERE IT TRACKS...THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...MY BET IS THAT THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIELDS US FROM AND PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE MCS SHOULD TRACK TO OUR SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...BUT THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
GENERATE ITS OWN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT
ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...LIKELY TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG...OR
POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND. THE
MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF
I-40 AND EAST OF I-55 IN EAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH AND A BROAD LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS
BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE
RESULT...DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FRIDAYS
TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEAR
OUT...BUT BY SATURDAY...WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S.
OVER THE WEEKEND...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE DEEP
SOUTHEASTERN US WITH A BROAD TROUGH OUT WEST RESULTING IN WEAK
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
MORE LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDWEEK AS TEMPERATURES GET WARMER. HIGHS
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S. SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO
OFF OF GUIDANCE AGAIN BASED ON A WARM BIAS I HAVE OBSERVED
RECENTLY. LOOKS LIKE SUMMER HAS ARRIVED.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY... AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
NAM AND HRRR MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO THE JBR AREA AROUND 00Z...AND THE REMAINDER
OF THE MIDSOUTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR CONVECTIVE COLD POOL ORGANIZATION AND
POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS TO BECOME FORWARD PROPAGATING THIS
AFTERNOON. IF SO... TSRA COULD ARRIVE TO THE MIDSOUTH A LITTLE
EARLIER THAN FORECASTED IN THE 12Z TAFS.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
335 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT...
.DISCUSSION...
THIS FORECAST UPDATE FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST VIS SATELLITE AND SFC
OBS SHOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM BASICALLY JASPER TX TO STEPHENVILLE
TX THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER TX SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP STRONG INSTABILITY TO
ITSELF AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. SPC RAP MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS
QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SLOT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALSO
PUSHING OVER THE REGION. ALSO MAY SEE AN AREA OF ENHANCED JET
STREAM WINDS OVER THIS REGION AS WELL. THIS SHOULD FURTHER HELP
SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. OVERALL THE
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF TX.
MESO MODELS OF HRRR/WRF-ARW/NMM AND WRF RUN BY TX TECH ALL SHOW A
LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO SE TX AROUND 01-04Z THIS EVENING. THE
12Z NAM ALSO HINTS AT THIS WITH THE OTHER SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOWING
HIGH QPF OVER C TX INTO SE TX INDICATIVE OF CONVECTION. GIVEN ALL
THIS AGREEMENT ADDED 70 POPS TO THE FORECAST WITH MENTION OF
SEVERE STORMS FOR TONIGHT. LIKE TIMING OF REACHING NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM 00Z-04Z AND THEN HOUSTON AREA AROUND
03Z-07Z. DEPENDING ON HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES...SQUALL LINE COULD
BE SLOWER IF IT TAKES MORE TIME TO DEVELOP. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS SUPPORT BOWING SEGMENTS WITH THE SQUALL LINE. WRF-ARW
REALLY SHOWS THIS STRUCTURE WELL AT 03Z TONIGHT. THINK DAMAGING
WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL BE MAIN CONCERN. SHOULD BOW ECHOES
FORM...HIGHER CHANCE FOR WIND DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS DO SHOW SQUALL LINE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
HOUSTON AREA SO IMPACTS MAY BE LESS FARTHER SOUTH THAN BRAZOS
VALLEY INTO EAST TEXAS. STILL LOW CHANCES OF THE LINE MAKING IT TO
THE COAST BUT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF COLD POOL AND CAP
WEAKENING. AS SUCH HAVE TAPERED OFF POPS FOR TONIGHT CLOSER TO THE
COAST SOUTH OF I-10.
FRIDAY MAY STILL HAVE SOME CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY ROTATE THROUGH WITH A BACK
DOOR FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. GFS/NAM/ECMWF HINT AT SOME
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH PASSING TROUGH AXIS. KEPT
SOME 30 POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE COULD HAVE
REALLY WORKED OVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH
RECOVERY. GFS DOES HINT AT PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8-2.0
INCHES SO WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TOMORROW...COULD
SEE STORMS DEVELOP AGAIN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
LOW BUT AGAIN COULD SEE A WIND THREAT WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WHEN LOOKING AT GFS/ECMWF DATA
FOR THE EXTENDED. RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL SAT BUT COULD GET SOME
ISO ACTIVITY SUN/MON. REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE QUESTIONABLE AS TO
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND ANY LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE. SUPPOSE
THAT SEA BREEZE COULD DEVELOP TO SUPPORT A STORM OR TWO BUT TOO
FAR OUT TO PINPOINT MESOSCALE FORECAST DETAILS.
39
&&
.AVIATION...
KEPT THE MENTION OF VCTS IN FOR THIS AFTN FOR SOME SITES AS ANOTHER
LINE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER SHORT-TERM MODELS STILL GOING
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN FOR TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES A-
CROSS THE AREA TO THE EAST. 41
&&
.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUING A SLOW UPTICK WITH THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT
(IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW OUT WEST). AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO
THE EAST FRIDAY...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY/BRIEFLY THRU
SAT. GRADIENT EXPECTED TIGHTEN ONCE AGAIN LATE SAT WITH ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODERATE/OCCASIONALLY STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS TO PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 91 74 91 74 / 70 30 20 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 91 74 91 74 / 50 30 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 79 88 79 88 79 / 30 30 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
323 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE ON SHORT TERM SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE MESOSCALE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CELL THAT WAS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
EARLIER THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN A RECOVERY OF THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THIS PART
OF THE CWA...HOWEVER AIRCRAFT SOUNDING DATA STILL INDICATES THAT
LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS STILL OCCURRING. THIS SUBSIDENCE
APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING A BIT BASED ON LATEST RADAR DATA WHICH HAS
SHOWN A GENERAL UPTICK IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES OR
SO. ANALYSIS OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THAT IT IS
POSITIONED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR BRECKENRIDGE TO JUST NORTH OF
WACO AND EAST TO PALESTINE. IT APPEARS TO BE RETREATING AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY EAST OF
WACO TOWARD PALESTINE. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATES 2500-4000J/KG OF INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH
WEAKENING INHIBITION. IN ADDITION...THE STRONGLY BACKED SURFACE
WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IS RESULTING IN LOCALLY
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE SPREADING INTO WEST
TEXAS WHICH WILL SPREAD LARGER SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ATOP THIS
HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL FORCING. ALL OF THIS BODES WELL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE
MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA FROM COMANCHE TO WACO SOUTH TO
CAMERON. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A
VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT...SOME TO BASEBALL SIZE OR LARGER.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES NEAR THE
BOUNDARY PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. INITIAL
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DISCRETE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WITH
THE HIGHER TORNADO POTENTIAL AND MAY DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE
SUPERCELLULAR CLUSTERS LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT HEADS
SOUTH...BECOMING A MORE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FOR THIS
EVENING...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20.
FARTHER NORTH...ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AND
WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
AND THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. WHILE THERE IS SOME
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THE MAIN THREAT NORTH OF THE
RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE LARGE HAIL. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WITH RAIN
CHANCES DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SURGE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE
AREA BY LATE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS EVENING
COULD ACT AS AN EFFECTIVE FRONT SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE FRONT WILL HANG UP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND
BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH RIDGING NOSING IN AT 500MB. WILL KEEP
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AMPLE INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE PRESENT BY AFTERNOON FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL STORM.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE FORECAST DRY INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE. WARM MORNINGS AND HUMID
AFTERNOONS APPEAR LIKELY AND THERE WILL BE SEVERAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES THAT PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT ONE OR MORE OF THESE COULD BRING SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DUNN
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1228 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
CLEARING TO THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE TEMPO STORMS IN THE METROPLEX. ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STORM THREAT SHOULD REDUCED
CONSIDERABLY. AT WACO...SKIES ARE CLEARING AND THEY HAVE ALREADY
WARMED INTO THE 80S. HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON TSRA THERE AS
WELL...JUST A BIT LATER THAN METROPLEX.
TAFS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AHEAD OF FRONT...SINCE
WINDS CAN SHIFT WITH EACH ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THAT MOVES ACROSS.
TSRA COVERAGE IN METROPLEX ALSO PROBLEMATIC. HRRR MAY NOT BE
CATCHING THE CLEARING TO THE NW AND IT HAS FEW STORMS IN LATEST
RUN.TTU WRF DID NOT CATCH THE OUTFLOW THIS MORNING AND LIKELY HAS
TOO MANY STORMS. 84
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 70 89 72 92 74 / 20 10 10 10 10
WACO, TX 70 89 71 92 73 / 60 20 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 65 85 66 87 70 / 20 5 10 10 10
DENTON, TX 66 87 70 92 72 / 20 5 10 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 66 86 70 89 73 / 20 5 10 10 10
DALLAS, TX 70 88 72 91 73 / 20 10 10 10 10
TERRELL, TX 71 87 71 89 75 / 20 10 10 10 10
CORSICANA, TX 70 89 71 90 73 / 40 10 10 10 10
TEMPLE, TX 72 89 72 93 72 / 60 20 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 69 88 71 92 71 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1228 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.AVIATION...
CLEARING TO THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE KEPT THE TEMPO STORMS IN THE METROPLEX. ONCE
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STORM THREAT SHOULD REDUCED
CONSIDERABLY. AT WACO...SKIES ARE CLEARING AND THEY HAVE ALREADY
WARMED INTO THE 80S. HAVE KEPT THE AFTERNOON TSRA THERE AS
WELL...JUST A BIT LATER THAN METROPLEX.
TAFS HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AHEAD OF FRONT...SINCE
WINDS CAN SHIFT WITH EACH ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THAT MOVES ACROSS.
TSRA COVERAGE IN METROPLEX ALSO PROBLEMATIC. HRRR MAY NOT BE
CATCHING THE CLEARING TO THE NW AND IT HAS FEW STORMS IN LATEST
RUN.TTU WRF DID NOT CATCH THE OUTFLOW THIS MORNING AND LIKELY HAS
TOO MANY STORMS. 84
&&
.UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH AND IS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR GATESVILLE TO
WACO TO ATHENS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE A MAJOR PLAYER
CONCERNING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES DROP 5
TO 10 DEGREES AND WINDS ARE NORTHEAST. THIS EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATES
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND WILL REQUIRE ADDITIONAL HEATING AND
WIND RECOVERY FOR ANY CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS ACTUALLY STILL ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND WILL HEAD SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY HANDLES THIS WELL...IT HAS DONE A
POOR JOB MODELING THIS MORNINGS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND ITS
IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...
SINCE THE GUIDANCE DOESNT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE MESOSCALE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA OR THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LOCATION OF BOTH
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR
OZONA WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART
OF OUR CWA BENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE MAIN TROF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH LATER TODAY...A WEAK
SURFACE TROF WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
THIS MAY ACTUALLY BE THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IT COULD
BEHAVE MORE LIKE A WARM FRONT GIVEN SUFFICIENT HEATING ACROSS THE
WEST. THIS BECOMES IMPORTANT BECAUSE THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA ARE RELATIVELY
UNDISTURBED FROM MORNING CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BACKED MORE THAN INDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK SURFACE LOW. WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT OVER THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES. MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 3000 J/KG WITH VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR GREATER THAN 45KTS WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SEEMS TO CONCUR WITH THIS AND
ACTUALLY INDICATES WHAT APPEARS TO BE DISCRETE CONVECTION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS UPDATE WILL ADJUST POPS THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN
RAISE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO UPDATE GRAPHICS ON THE WEB FOR THE
LATEST THINKING.
DUNN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SIZABLE AREA OF STRONG
TO EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AND JUNE
SUNSHINE HELPS PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S.
A THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...PUSHING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AT 3 AM CDT...WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER BY THIS AFTERNOON.
PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR DANGEROUS SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. A FEW
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP IN THE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A NEARLY
EAST-WEST LINEAR SYSTEM BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING AND DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION WILL TEND TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER DARK...BUT DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SEVERE
WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL UNTIL THEY EXIT THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE POPS TODAY WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL
FOCUS GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS. A STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO BUILD TO STRONG TO
EXTREME LEVELS...ALSO ARGUES FOR LOWER POPS WEST AND HIGHER POPS
EAST TODAY. THE CAP WILL BE STRONGEST IN AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
35 AND SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT LATER TODAY. IN AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...THE CAP IS
WEAKER AND THE MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE ADVANCING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE STRONGER. THESE FACTORS JUSTIFY THE
LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35.
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL END FRIDAY MORNING
AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS RAIN FREE...BUT
WARM AND MUGGY. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT A WEAK UPPER WAVE MAY AFFECT TEXAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON THAT SCENARIO IS LOW AT THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
09
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 90 71 87 72 92 / 40 50 10 5 10
WACO, TX 91 71 89 72 91 / 60 60 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 84 67 84 67 88 / 60 60 10 5 5
DENTON, TX 88 68 86 70 91 / 50 50 10 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 87 66 86 68 89 / 50 50 10 5 10
DALLAS, TX 90 71 87 72 91 / 40 50 10 5 10
TERRELL, TX 86 69 87 69 90 / 50 60 10 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 90 71 88 71 90 / 60 60 10 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 91 71 89 71 91 / 60 60 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 93 68 86 70 93 / 40 40 5 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1042 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH AND IS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR GATESVILLE TO
WACO TO ATHENS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE A MAJOR PLAYER
CONCERNING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES DROP 5
TO 10 DEGREES AND WINDS ARE NORTHEAST. THIS EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATES
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND WILL REQUIRE ADDITIONAL HEATING AND
WIND RECOVERY FOR ANY CHANCE OF SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS ACTUALLY STILL ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND WILL HEAD SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY HANDLES THIS WELL...IT HAS DONE A
POOR JOB MODELING THIS MORNINGS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND ITS
IMPACTS ON THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...
SINCE THE GUIDANCE DOESNT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE MESOSCALE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA OR THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LOCATION OF BOTH
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR
OZONA WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART
OF OUR CWA BENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE MAIN TROF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH LATER TODAY...A WEAK
SURFACE TROF WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
THIS MAY ACTUALLY BE THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IT COULD
BEHAVE MORE LIKE A WARM FRONT GIVEN SUFFICIENT HEATING ACROSS THE
WEST. THIS BECOMES IMPORTANT BECAUSE THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA ARE RELATIVELY
UNDISTURBED FROM MORNING CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BACKED MORE THAN INDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK SURFACE LOW. WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT OVER THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES. MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 3000 J/KG WITH VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR GREATER THAN 45KTS WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SEEMS TO CONCUR WITH THIS AND
ACTUALLY INDICATES WHAT APPEARS TO BE DISCRETE CONVECTION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS UPDATE WILL ADJUST POPS THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN
RAISE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO UPDATE GRAPHICS ON THE WEB FOR THE
LATEST THINKING.
DUNN
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 702 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
/12Z TAFS/
MANY CHALLENGES TODAY REGARDING CONVECTIVE TIMING AND WIND SHIFTS.
NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS 15-30 KTS NOW PUSHING THROUGH DFW METRO
AIRPORTS AND SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW WITH MIXING BY LATE
MORNING OR MIDDAY. VFR WITH THUNDER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. AT WACO...CAPPING INVERSION IS STRONGER THIS MORNING AND
WILL HOLD ON TO JUST VCSH AND VFR THIS MORNING.
HIGH RES MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY HELPFUL WITH STORM OUTFLOW AND
EXACT TIMING OF COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH TIMING STORM
INITIATION. BEST GUESS IS FOR THE INITIATION OF SEVERE STORMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND NORTH OF DFW METRO EARLY-MID AFTERNOON...THEN
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND DEPARTING BY EARLY
EVENING. STORM TIMING AT WACO APPEARS TO BE LATE AFTERNOON AND
CLEARING OUT BY MID EVENING.
WE WILL CARRY A LIGHT N/NE FLOW LESS THAN 10 KTS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE DFW METRO TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS ARRIVING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FRONT SHOULD STALL IN OR NEAR WACO OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH
WINDS 10-15 KTS BECOMING LIGHT E/NE LATE THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
CIGS RETURNING AS WELL.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SIZABLE AREA OF STRONG
TO EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AND JUNE
SUNSHINE HELPS PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S.
A THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...PUSHING SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AT 3 AM CDT...WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER BY THIS AFTERNOON.
PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR DANGEROUS SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. A FEW
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP IN THE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A NEARLY
EAST-WEST LINEAR SYSTEM BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING AND DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION WILL TEND TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER DARK...BUT DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SEVERE
WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL UNTIL THEY EXIT THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE POPS TODAY WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL
FOCUS GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS. A STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO BUILD TO STRONG TO
EXTREME LEVELS...ALSO ARGUES FOR LOWER POPS WEST AND HIGHER POPS
EAST TODAY. THE CAP WILL BE STRONGEST IN AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE
35 AND SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT LATER TODAY. IN AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...THE CAP IS
WEAKER AND THE MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE ADVANCING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE STRONGER. THESE FACTORS JUSTIFY THE
LIKELY POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN AREAS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35.
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL END FRIDAY MORNING
AS LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. UPPER RIDGING BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS RAIN FREE...BUT
WARM AND MUGGY. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT A WEAK UPPER WAVE MAY AFFECT TEXAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON THAT SCENARIO IS LOW AT THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN A
DRY FORECAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
09
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 90 71 87 72 92 / 40 50 10 5 10
WACO, TX 91 71 89 72 91 / 60 60 10 10 10
PARIS, TX 84 67 84 67 88 / 60 60 10 5 5
DENTON, TX 88 68 86 70 91 / 50 50 10 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 87 66 86 68 89 / 50 50 10 5 10
DALLAS, TX 90 71 87 72 91 / 40 50 10 5 10
TERRELL, TX 86 69 87 69 90 / 50 60 10 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 90 71 88 71 90 / 60 60 10 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 91 71 89 71 91 / 60 60 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 93 68 86 70 93 / 40 40 5 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1033 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MONITORING CONVECTION OVER ANDERSON/HENDERSON/FREESTONE COUNTIES
NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS CONVECTION MIGHT MOVE INTO HOUSTON COUNTY
LATER THIS MORNING AND MAYBE BE AN ISSUE FOR TRINITY/POLK
COUNTIES. WILL KEEP 20 POPS FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO UPDATE THE
FORECAST FOR THOSE COUNTIES SHOULD IT BECOME MORE APPARENT THERE
WILL BE AN IMPACT.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATER THIS EVENING. NEW
12Z NAM AND EVEN PREVIOUS MESO MODELS CONTINUE SHOW THREAT OF A
SQUALL LINE MOVING INTO THE REGION AROUND 7PM TO MIDNIGHT LOCAL
TIME OR 00Z-05Z. MODELS HINT AT MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER N
TX WHICH COULD THEN PUSH DOWN INTO SE TX DURING THE EVENING. SPC
HAS HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR SLIGHT RISK AREA MAINLY NORTH OF I-10
FOR HOUSTON FORECAST AREA. HIGHER RISK EXISTS FARTHER NORTH BUT
DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF CURRENT CONVECTIVE EVENT. CURIOUS
ABOUT UPDATED DAY 1 OUTLOOK FROM SPC BUT SUSPECT RISK WILL NOT
CHANGE. MAIN THREATS STILL LOOK LIKE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL DO 2 THINGS. INCREASE HEAT INDEX
VALUES TO AROUND 105 AND ALSO BUILD INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE THREAT.
HEATING WILL ALSO YIELD STEEP NEAR SFC DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES
FOR INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILES. THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. AS SUCH UPDATED FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING TO INCREASE
POPS AND MENTION SEVERE THREAT. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
NO CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. THE HRRR/4 KM NCEP WRF
INITIALIZED BEST THIS MORNING BUT EACH MODEL DIFFERS ON HOW THINGS
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY. THE 4 KM WRF LOOKS OVERDONE BUT IT IS
VERIFYING BEST AT 11Z. THE RAP LOOKS THE MOST REASONABLE BUT IT
INITIALIZED RATHER POORLY. THE HRRR INITIALIZED OK AND APPEARS TO
BE MAYBE THE BEST COMPROMISE. WILL BRING CONVECTION SOUTHWARD AND
FEEL KIAH...KCXO...KUTS AND KCLL WILL GET SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTN. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS
EVENING WITH A SECONDARY BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA REDEVLOPING AND MOVING
INTO THE AREA AROUND 02Z. DESPITE THE OCCASIONAL SHOWWERS...CONDS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL LIKELY DRIVE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TODAY AND TONIGHT SO TAFS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE OF CONCERN
FOR OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING
MCS IN OKLAHOMA. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IS OVER EASTERN MEXICO.
THE SETUP FOR TODAY IS AS FOLLOWS. SHORTWAVE #1 IN KANSAS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
WEAK BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL LIKELY ALSO CAUSE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN THE DALLAS/ FORT WORTH AREA. HIGH RES
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THE PRECIP WILL DEVELOP
AND PROPAGATE FROM THE CURRENT MCS AND SHORTWAVE #1. IN GENERAL...
HIGH RES MODELS SHOW WEAK SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG A NORTH SOUTH
ORIENTED LINE AND PUSHING TO THE EAST. THIS MAKES SOME SENSE GIVEN
THE SHEAR AXIS ANALYZED ON THE CURRENT 0Z 850 MAP THIS MORNING
WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO RUN NORTH SOUTH FROM OUR AREA TOWARDS TYLER
TEXAS. HIGH MODELS BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE PAST THIS TIME
FRAME. THE 4KM NCEP WRF INTENSIFIES THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP AND
MOVES IT INTO OUR AREA. THE TEXAS TECH WRF... HRRR ...AND RAP
WEAKEN THE PRECIP. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE PRECIP WEAKENING DUE TO
THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP AND AVERAGE MOISTURE LEVELS (PWATS
~1.5"). UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALSO APPEARS TO BE WEAK THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE RIDGE LOOKS TO WIN OUT. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED POPS FOR
OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ANY
PRECIP THAT MIGHT CUT ACROSS. IT COULD ALSO BE QUITE WARM THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN 850 BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS NORTH OF THE
AREA. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND FOUR DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS THE QUESTION OF HOW
MUCH CIRRUS THE AREA WILL SEE THOUGH FROM CONVECTION OFF TO OUR
NORTH. IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO BE
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT IF A COLD POOL MOVES THROUGH. MID 90S LOOKS
VERY LIKELY FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON AND OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
THOUGH. ALONG THE COAST THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE
TEMPS MORE TAME.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE SHORTWAVE #2 CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
ARIZONA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP SPEED AS IT MOVES
EAST AND ROTATES AROUND THE RIDGE. THURSDAY EVENING IT IS
FORECASTED TO BE ENTERING CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE
SOME TYPE OF MCS FORMING AND HEADING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA. BEFORE THIS THOUGH HIGH RES MODELS VARY GREATLY AND
THEREFORE PRODUCE VERY DIFFERENT SITUATIONS ON HOW THE LINE IS
HANDLED. AS OF CURRENT THE HRRR/ RAP HAVE SEEMED TO INITIALIZE THE
BEST AND SHOW THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING OUR
FAR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 0Z FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT
A SECTION OF THE RIDGE AND WILL ALLOW A WEDGE OF PV TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFLUENCE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BUT THE SIGNAL IS WEAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 1.8" WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 2000
J/KG. BECAUSE OF THIS SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY THREATS APPEAR TO
BE WIND AND HAIL. FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO DROP
SLIGHTLY BUT GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW LARGE
INSTABILITY VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP. DUE TO
THIS SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL FALL INTO THE CONVERGENT REGION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND THE AREA WILL START TO DRY OUT.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WORK WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON POP UP THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE. 23
MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS DEEPENS.
THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 94 73 90 74 91 / 20 60 30 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 95 75 91 74 91 / 10 40 30 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 80 87 79 87 / 10 30 30 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
622 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. THE HRRR/4 KM NCEP WRF
INITIALIZED BEST THIS MORNING BUT EACH MODEL DIFFERS ON HOW THINGS
WILL EVOLVE LATER TODAY. THE 4 KM WRF LOOKS OVERDONE BUT IT IS
VERIFYING BEST AT 11Z. THE RAP LOOKS THE MOST REASONABLE BUT IT
INITIALIZED RATHER POORLY. THE HRRR INITIALIZED OK AND APPEARS TO
BE MAYBE THE BEST COMPROMISE. WILL BRING CONVECTION SOUTHWARD AND
FEEL KIAH...KCXO...KUTS AND KCLL WILL GET SOME SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTN. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS
EVENING WITH A SECONDARY BATCH OF SHRA/TSRA REDEVLOPING AND MOVING
INTO THE AREA AROUND 02Z. DESPITE THE OCCASIONAL SHOWWERS...CONDS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR AFTER 15Z WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL LIKELY DRIVE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TODAY AND TONIGHT SO TAFS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE OF CONCERN
FOR OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING
MCS IN OKLAHOMA. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IS OVER EASTERN MEXICO.
THE SETUP FOR TODAY IS AS FOLLOWS. SHORTWAVE #1 IN KANSAS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
WEAK BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL LIKELY ALSO CAUSE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN THE DALLAS/ FORT WORTH AREA. HIGH RES
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THE PRECIP WILL DEVELOP
AND PROPAGATE FROM THE CURRENT MCS AND SHORTWAVE #1. IN GENERAL...
HIGH RES MODELS SHOW WEAK SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG A NORTH SOUTH
ORIENTED LINE AND PUSHING TO THE EAST. THIS MAKES SOME SENSE GIVEN
THE SHEAR AXIS ANALYZED ON THE CURRENT 0Z 850 MAP THIS MORNING
WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO RUN NORTH SOUTH FROM OUR AREA TOWARDS TYLER
TEXAS. HIGH MODELS BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE PAST THIS TIME
FRAME. THE 4KM NCEP WRF INTENSIFIES THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP AND
MOVES IT INTO OUR AREA. THE TEXAS TECH WRF... HRRR ...AND RAP
WEAKEN THE PRECIP. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE PRECIP WEAKENING DUE TO
THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP AND AVERAGE MOISTURE LEVELS (PWATS
~1.5"). UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALSO APPEARS TO BE WEAK THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE RIDGE LOOKS TO WIN OUT. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED POPS FOR
OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ANY
PRECIP THAT MIGHT CUT ACROSS. IT COULD ALSO BE QUITE WARM THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN 850 BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS NORTH OF THE
AREA. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND FOUR DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS THE QUESTION OF HOW
MUCH CIRRUS THE AREA WILL SEE THOUGH FROM CONVECTION OFF TO OUR
NORTH. IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO BE
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT IF A COLD POOL MOVES THROUGH. MID 90S LOOKS
VERY LIKELY FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON AND OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
THOUGH. ALONG THE COAST THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE
TEMPS MORE TAME.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE SHORTWAVE #2 CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
ARIZONA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP SPEED AS IT MOVES
EAST AND ROTATES AROUND THE RIDGE. THURSDAY EVENING IT IS
FORECASTED TO BE ENTERING CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE
SOME TYPE OF MCS FORMING AND HEADING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA. BEFORE THIS THOUGH HIGH RES MODELS VARY GREATLY AND
THEREFORE PRODUCE VERY DIFFERENT SITUATIONS ON HOW THE LINE IS
HANDLED. AS OF CURRENT THE HRRR/ RAP HAVE SEEMED TO INITIALIZE THE
BEST AND SHOW THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING OUR
FAR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 0Z FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT
A SECTION OF THE RIDGE AND WILL ALLOW A WEDGE OF PV TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFLUENCE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BUT THE SIGNAL IS WEAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 1.8" WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 2000
J/KG. BECAUSE OF THIS SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY THREATS APPEAR TO
BE WIND AND HAIL. FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO DROP
SLIGHTLY BUT GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW LARGE
INSTABILITY VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP. DUE TO
THIS SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL FALL INTO THE CONVERGENT REGION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND THE AREA WILL START TO DRY OUT.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WORK WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON POP UP THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE. 23
MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS DEEPENS.
THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 94 73 90 74 91 / 20 50 30 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 95 75 91 74 91 / 10 40 30 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 80 87 79 87 / 10 30 30 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
409 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVES THAT WILL BE OF CONCERN
FOR OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING
MCS IN OKLAHOMA. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE IS OVER EASTERN MEXICO.
THE SETUP FOR TODAY IS AS FOLLOWS. SHORTWAVE #1 IN KANSAS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
WEAK BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL LIKELY ALSO CAUSE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN THE DALLAS/ FORT WORTH AREA. HIGH RES
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THE PRECIP WILL DEVELOP
AND PROPAGATE FROM THE CURRENT MCS AND SHORTWAVE #1. IN GENERAL...
HIGH RES MODELS SHOW WEAK SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG A NORTH SOUTH
ORIENTED LINE AND PUSHING TO THE EAST. THIS MAKES SOME SENSE GIVEN
THE SHEAR AXIS ANALYZED ON THE CURRENT 0Z 850 MAP THIS MORNING
WHICH ALSO HAPPENS TO RUN NORTH SOUTH FROM OUR AREA TOWARDS TYLER
TEXAS. HIGH MODELS BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE PAST THIS TIME
FRAME. THE 4KM NCEP WRF INTENSIFIES THE COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP AND
MOVES IT INTO OUR AREA. THE TEXAS TECH WRF... HRRR ...AND RAP
WEAKEN THE PRECIP. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE PRECIP WEAKENING DUE TO
THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP AND AVERAGE MOISTURE LEVELS (PWATS
~1.5"). UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALSO APPEARS TO BE WEAK THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE RIDGE LOOKS TO WIN OUT. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED POPS FOR
OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ANY
PRECIP THAT MIGHT CUT ACROSS. IT COULD ALSO BE QUITE WARM THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN 850 BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS NORTH OF THE
AREA. 850 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND FOUR DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS THE QUESTION OF HOW
MUCH CIRRUS THE AREA WILL SEE THOUGH FROM CONVECTION OFF TO OUR
NORTH. IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO BE
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT IF A COLD POOL MOVES THROUGH. MID 90S LOOKS
VERY LIKELY FOR THE CITY OF HOUSTON AND OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
THOUGH. ALONG THE COAST THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE
TEMPS MORE TAME.
THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE SHORTWAVE #2 CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
ARIZONA. THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP SPEED AS IT MOVES
EAST AND ROTATES AROUND THE RIDGE. THURSDAY EVENING IT IS
FORECASTED TO BE ENTERING CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE
SOME TYPE OF MCS FORMING AND HEADING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA. BEFORE THIS THOUGH HIGH RES MODELS VARY GREATLY AND
THEREFORE PRODUCE VERY DIFFERENT SITUATIONS ON HOW THE LINE IS
HANDLED. AS OF CURRENT THE HRRR/ RAP HAVE SEEMED TO INITIALIZE THE
BEST AND SHOW THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING OUR
FAR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 0Z FRIDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CARVE OUT
A SECTION OF THE RIDGE AND WILL ALLOW A WEDGE OF PV TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW SOME DIFFLUENCE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BUT THE SIGNAL IS WEAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MOISTURE LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 1.8" WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 2000
J/KG. BECAUSE OF THIS SPC HAS PUT THE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY THREATS APPEAR TO
BE WIND AND HAIL. FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO DROP
SLIGHTLY BUT GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW LARGE
INSTABILITY VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP. DUE TO
THIS SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL FALL INTO THE CONVERGENT REGION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND THE AREA WILL START TO DRY OUT.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WORK WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON POP UP THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE. 23
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS DEEPENS.
THE LOW WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 94 73 90 74 91 / 20 50 30 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 95 75 91 74 91 / 10 40 30 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 80 87 79 87 / 10 30 30 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SEATTLE WA
350 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY ALONG WITH MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW. EXPECT A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL BE COOL AND
UNSETTLED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS WERE INCREASING ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW OFF THE FAR SOUTHWEST WA COAST. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE
BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS WILL BE EAST OF THE CASCADES BUT DECIDED TO
HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT RISK OF TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR THIS
EVENING. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A RANDOM STRIKE OR TWO. THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM ANY STRONG TSTM THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL BE SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND WILL BE OVER
EASTERN WA BY SUNRISE FRI. A DEFORMATION ZONE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AND THEN
PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE CASCADES
COULD HAVE LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2.3 INCHES /BELOW THE HIGHEST
PEAKS/ DURING THE 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 5 PM PDT FRI. A FEW
LOWLAND INTERIOR SITES COULD RECEIVE NEAR AN INCH OF RAINFALL
DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME.
LOOK FOR THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN FRI
AFTERNOON AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRI EVENING. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE...RESULTING IN A DIMINISHING THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. THE SURFACE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY AND WITH ONLY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT...
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
WITHIN THE PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE /PSCZ/. FRI WILL ALSO BE A
RATHER COOL DAY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH MAX TEMPS FORECAST TO
AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
THE MODELS SEEMED TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROF ON SUNDAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL SERVE TO KEEP WEATHER
CONDITIONS UNSETTLED AND DAYTIME TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...
BEYOND SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINED LOW DUE TO
CONTINUED DISAGREEMENT AND LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE SOLUTIONS. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE CHOSEN TO MAKE LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE INHERITED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE S WA/OREGON BORDER
WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD INTO THE INTERIOR PAC NW TONIGHT. LIGHT
TO MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BECOMING MOIST AT ALL LEVELS AND UNSTABLE THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE LIKELY THE NEXT 36 HOURS BUT THE
CHANCE OF THUNDER AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
THEREFORE...THIS COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT PUTTING THUNDER IN THE
TAFS BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR AND AMEND AS NEEDED DURING THIS
UNSTABLE PERIOD.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING BUT MVFR AND LOCAL IFR DEVELOPING
LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE
STEADY AND PERSISTENT.
KSEA...SHOWERS SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN RAIN AT
AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS ROUGHLY A 15
PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WILL NOT
INCLUDE THIS IN TAF AND MONITOR RADAR CLOSELY TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL PRODUCE
SMALL CRAFT WESTERLY WINDS IN THE CENTRAL/E STRAIT THIS EVENING. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF WA TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY BEHIND THE LOW. WINDS COULD APPROACH
GALE FORCE BUT HAVE KEPT WINDS LIMITED TO 30 KT THIS EVENING IN THE
CENTRAL/E STRAIT. MODELS SHOW A STRONGER ONSHORE PUSH FRIDAY WHICH
COULD PRODUCE GALES SO A WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL/E STRAIT
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT WINDS COULD
DEVELOP OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE WA COAST AND INTERIOR WATERS ON
FRIDAY AS WELL. DTM
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 11 AM FRI FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRI MORNING THROUGH FRI EVENING FOR
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
&&
$$
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
FOR THE GRAPHICAL AFD...VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
252 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system will track into the region this
evening bringing a good chance of thunderstorms some of which
could be strong with gusty winds and large hail. The low will
remain over the region through the weekend resulting in cool and
unsettled weather conditions. High pressure will return into the
region on Tuesday and bring drying conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...Strong upper level low continues to slowly meander
toward the Washington coast as of 2pm with strong upper level
difluence noted ahead of it. This difluence is associated with
strong upper level southwesterly jet which extended from the SW
corner of Oregon and into SE Washington. Meanwhile the offshore
trough will take on a slightly negative tilt as a shortwave rounds
the base. These mechanisms will provide the lift necessary for
thunderstorms...while the instability is already present. Thus far
the greatest potential instability was located near the Cascades
where MUCAPE values have surged into 1000-1500 j/kg range with
little if any inhibition. Thunderstorms have been growing in
number but thus far have been restricted to the western portions
of Chelan and Okanogan counties. 0-6 km shear values in these
areas range from 25-35 kts which isn`t terrific but could be
sufficient for an isolated strong or severe thunderstorm with the
main threat being moderate sized hail. An area of greater concern
lies over the SE corner of Washington and the southern half of the
Idaho Panhandle. This location has a much more profound
instability axis as well as shear values topping out between 50-60
kts. Convection has already begun to grow over the NE corner of
Oregon and should drift into SE Washington and the Panhandle
during the early evening as the low moves inland. The HRRR has
consistently forecast this feature to track through the SE corner
of our CWA so confidence is growing. Whether or not the
thunderstorms in this area become severe isn`t a certainty...but
the max composite reflectivity product has consistently depicted a
bow-like structure which would be conducive for strong winds. The
threat for any strong/severe storms should be minimal after the
late evening hours as we lose any impacts from surface heating. As
the low tracks east of the Cascades during the evening...we will
see an intrusion of drier air move into the southern Cascades and
into the Columbia Basin behind a cold front. This should also put
an end to the convective chances in these locations...with the
possibility of this moving as far east as the Spokane area and
Washington Palouse. For the overnight hours...we should see most
of the precipitation chances focused around the northern and
eastern periphery of the upper level low. This generally
encompasses the western Cascades through the northern Washington
mountains and into the northern Idaho Panhandle. Potential
instability numbers suggest lightning could still be possible from
the Okanogan Highlands to the northern tip of the Panhandle. fx
Friday and Friday night: The cold upper level low pressure system
will pass over SE WA and over the Central Panhandle during the
day. This is where the coldest temps aloft and the steepest mid
level lapse rates will reside. As such, the southeastern portion
of the forecast area will see the best chance for thunderstorms
from the afternoon into the evening. We will also be dealing with
some wrap around moisture rotating in over the Northern Panhandle
and across much of the western half of the forecast area. Showers
will also develop along this TROWAL (TRough Of Warm Air Aloft)
like feature through this period as well. This will result in
plenty of cloud cover and higher than average precip chances
across the region. In fact, most areas will see a good chance for
some rain either in the afternoon or overnight on Friday as the
TROWAL shifts eastward with time along the backside of the low.
Cloudy skies under the low on Friday will result in dramatically
lower temps compared to this afternoon. Expect high temps only to
get up into the 60s for most locations in the afternoon.
Saturday through Sunday evening: The flow pattern over the region
will transition to out of the northwest as the low exits the
area. Showers will linger primarily across the eastern third of
the forecast area on Saturday. Temperatures will rebound closer to
normal Saturday afternoon.
The next weather feature of note will be a cold front passage on
Sunday. There is some uncertainty with the strength and moisture
content with this wave. The latest 18Z NAM just came in with Pwats
up around 0.80 inches compared to just 0.50 to 0.60 inches off of
the 12Z GFS run. The current forecast is more reflective of the
drier GFS with the best chances of showers across the northern
mtns. If subsequent model runs continue to show a stronger and
wetter wave like the newest NAM run, then the forecast will need
to be adjusted wetter and have increased coverage further south
and into the basin. Winds do not appear to be that much of a
concern across the region with this front, but we will continue to
see a fairly tight cross Cascade gradient. This will would keep
winds breezy through the Cascade gaps and out into the western
basin. /SVH
Sunday night through Thursday: Big differences right off the bat
for the latter portion of the extended forecast. While the GFS
would maintain a northwest flow on Monday, and then build a weak
ridge in for the middle of the week. This solution is also
supported by others. On the other hand, other model solutions
would argue for another more organized low pressure system moving
right over top of the Inland Northwest, which would bring much
cooler and unsettled conditions. With emphasis this shift on the
shorter terms, this forecast will go with the status quo, which is
more in line with the more consistent solutions. This will give
slowly warming temperatures each day, with precipitation chances
mainly confined to the higher elevations. ty
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A vigorous low pressure system currently off the WA
Coast will swing inland over the next 24 hours. This will trigger
a chance of showers and thunderstorms for all forecast sites.Looks
like the threat will begin near MWH and EAT between 21-00z and end
quickly thereafter. For the other locations...we should see
thunder develop over NE Oregon and quickly head into the LWS/PUW
area. HRRR model shows the greatest threat will be between 00-06z.
GEG/SFF/COE will be the last locations threatened. We have put the
threat beginning around 00z...but based on model trends that may
be too quick. Any storms which form could produce erratic wind
gusts with speeds approaching 40 mph. The best chances for that
would be for PUW/LWS. After 06z...the threat should wane for all
locations with VFR conditions expected through remainder of
forecast. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 49 62 48 69 48 68 / 30 70 70 20 10 20
Coeur d`Alene 48 61 47 66 46 66 / 30 70 70 40 20 30
Pullman 46 60 45 66 44 66 / 50 70 70 30 10 20
Lewiston 54 67 51 75 51 73 / 50 70 70 30 10 20
Colville 50 63 48 71 48 67 / 60 80 80 30 20 30
Sandpoint 49 60 46 62 44 63 / 60 80 80 60 20 30
Kellogg 48 58 45 61 46 63 / 60 70 80 80 20 30
Moses Lake 53 71 51 78 52 77 / 20 50 30 0 0 10
Wenatchee 54 70 55 76 56 75 / 20 50 30 10 0 10
Omak 52 69 51 78 50 74 / 60 60 40 10 10 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
249 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR THE
WASHINGTON OREGON BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY
GENERATE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A ALMOST VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW IS AROUND 80 MILES OFF OF THE WASHINGTON/OREGON BORDER EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FIRST BAND OF RAIN IS PUSHING ONSHORE AND JUST MAKING
ITS WAY THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE LIGHTNING NETWORK HAS
DETECTED SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES FAR NORTH...ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON
AND JUST NORTH OF WASHINGTON STATE...SUGGESTING THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY IS IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW AS EXPECTED. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FOR THE PORTLAND FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
3 AND 7 PM WHEN THE LOW...AND COOLER AIR ALOFT...MOVES OVER LAND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARTING SHOWING SOME CLOUD BREAKS OVER THE
CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO...THEN SURFACE HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE INSTABILITY AND
STRENGTHEN THE CHANCE FOR TOWERING CUMULUS OVER THE NORTHERN CASCADES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE JUST
STARTING TO SPROUT ON SATELLITE AND RADAR.
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN FRINGE IS PRODUCING GUSTY WEST
WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND HIGHER CASCADES THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE LOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CASCADES AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
DIGS SOUTH ACROSS NW OREGON. THEREFORE COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE PUSHES EAST AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER...THROUGH SATURDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK IMPULSES WILL RESULT IN DEEP MARINE SURGES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER...WEAKER SYSTEM MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE SHOWERS
SUNDAY. HARTLEY
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MODELS STILL VARY IN THE LONG TERM...BUT
GENERALLY AGREE THAT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP MARINE
LAYER SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD MONDAY AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A FEW
DEGREES. HEIGHTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE FAR NE PACIFIC. THE VARYING
MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND WHETHER NW OREGON WILL
BE MORE INFLUENCED BY THE RIDGE OR THE LOW LATE NEXT WEEK. NONE OF
THE SOLUTIONS SHOW MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK...LEAVING TEMPERATURES AS THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE.
HARTLEY
&&
.AVIATION...FRONT MOVING INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING SOME HEAVY SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP. EXPECT VFR CIGS WITH OCCASION MVFR IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
IFR CIG AND VIS IN HEAVY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
03Z. ALONG THE COAST CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED SOME TO GIVE MOSTLY VFR
CIGS...BUT EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MORE SHOWERS TO RETURN AS THE
SECONDARY FRONT MOVES IN ALONG THE COAST 22Z-01Z. AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OVER THE AREA AND GRADIENTS SHIFT WESTERLY EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR
CIGS AND CONTINUED SHOWERS ALL AREAS AFT 06Z. SCHNEIDER
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS...40 PERCENT OF MVFR
CIG IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM 22Z-
03Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 06Z. SCHNEIDER
&&
.MARINE...1011MB SURFACE LOW JUST NORTHWEST OF ASTORIA OREGON AT
22Z WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY INLAND THIS EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT INLAND EARLY TONIGHT AS
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OFFSHORE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL ABOUT 03Z WITH THE
COLDEST AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID EVENING WHEN THE SECONDARY FRONT
PASSES THE COAST. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD NOT
BE QUITE AS STRONG.
SWELL BEING GENERATED FROM THIS LOW AS IT PASSED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL BEGIN REACHING THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON
COAST THIS EVENING AND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 10 FEET TOMORROW. HOWEVER WITH A STRONG TIDAL CYCLE THE
COLUMBIA RIVER BAR WILL BE PRETTY ROUGH DURING THE EBBS. SCHNEIDER
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR
OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 3 AM TO
7 AM PDT FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 PM TO
6 PM PDT FRIDAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1213 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system will track into the region this
afternoon and evening bringing a good chance of thunderstorms
some of which could be strong with gusty winds and large hail.
The low will remain over the region through the weekend resulting
in cool and unsettled weather conditions. High pressure will
return into the region on Tuesday and bring drying conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...Strong upper level low continues to drift closer
to the Washington coast as of 11am. Meanwhile a weak upper level
front was delivering a blanket of high and mid level clouds to
the eastern quarter of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. This
latter feature should move out of the forecast area by early
afternoon...which will bring a temporary clearing and likely a
resulting destabiliztion of the atmosphere.This destabilization
has already taken place in the Cascades and Okanogan Highlands and
we were beginning to see some cumulus development. Nothing is deep
enough for showers as of yet...but that will change as the low
moves closer and gives the potentially unstable air mass a needed
boost. The HRRR model has been rather insistent on developing
showers and thunderstorms first near the Cascades...Waterville
Plateau...and north Cascades by early afternoon. This threat will
then spread north and east into the the remaining northern
washington mountains and north Idaho Panhandle during the
remainder of the afternoon as a shortwave disturbance moves in
from the southwest. Model CAPE values are still rather impressive
and suggest a small chance of strong thunderstorms especially for
the Okanogan Highlands...Waterville Plateau...Okanogan Valley and
perhaps the northern Cascades. The HRRR is really downplaying the
threat south and west of these locations based on an incoming dry
slot. That`s not to say a thunderstorm would be impossible over
the Columbia Basin and Wenatchee area...but the odds are not
terrific. These locations will see a much better chance of gusty
winds to 25-30 mph and fairly dry relative humidity values.
Farther to the east and south...the HRRR is consistently
developing a big cluster of thunderstorms over NE Oregon and
pushing those into the Blues...Lewiston...southern Palouse and
southern Shoshone County after 4pm. Model stability indices and
the large scale forcing of the approaching shortwave suggest this
is the location which will be most prone to severe weather. The
main threat will be the possibility of strong wind gusts and large
hail. For the Spokane area...it looks like the threat of thunder
could hold off until the mid to late evening.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A vigorous low pressure system currently off the WA
Coast will swing inland over the next 24 hours. This will trigger
a chance of showers and thunderstorms for all forecast sites.Looks
like the threat will begin near MWH and EAT between 21-00z and end
quickly thereafter. For the other locations...we should see
thunder develop over NE Oregon and quickly head into the LWS/PUW
area. HRRR model shows the greatest threat will be between 00-06z.
GEG/SFF/COE will be the last locations threatened. We have put the
threat beginning around 00z...but based on model trends that may
be too quick. Any storms which form could produce erratic wind
gusts with speeds approaching 40 mph. The best chances for that
would be for PUW/LWS. After 06z...the threat should wane for all
locations with VFR conditions expected through remainder of
forecast. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 80 49 63 44 66 47 / 20 40 60 70 20 10
Coeur d`Alene 80 48 62 44 64 46 / 20 50 60 70 40 20
Pullman 78 45 61 42 64 44 / 20 50 60 60 30 10
Lewiston 86 52 69 47 72 50 / 30 60 60 60 30 10
Colville 80 47 65 47 68 47 / 40 80 60 70 30 20
Sandpoint 78 47 61 46 61 45 / 30 70 60 70 60 20
Kellogg 78 47 59 43 61 46 / 40 50 70 80 80 20
Moses Lake 82 52 73 49 76 51 / 20 50 40 20 0 0
Wenatchee 79 55 71 53 74 54 / 30 50 40 10 10 0
Omak 80 52 69 49 74 47 / 30 70 60 30 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
831 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
MAIN FOCUS THIS EVENING IS WITH WHETHER TO ADD ANY SPRINKLES TO
THE FORECAST AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS
LED TO SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
THESE RETURNS ARE COMING FROM A 10KFT DECK...BUT A FEW OBS HAVE
ACTUALLY REPORTED SOME -RA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS IT
CONTINUES TO WORK EAST...EXPECT THAT IT WILL FALL APART OR AT
LEAST NOT STRENGTHEN/BECOME WIDESPREAD. SO...WILL KEEP IT OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING. TOMORROW STILL IS LOOKING LIKE A
VERY WINDY DAY WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH
RANGE. MAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME IN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
AT 3 PM...A 1018 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI.
THIS HIGH HAS KEPT THE AREA MAINLY CLEAR TODAY. FURTHER
WEST...MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. SOME OF THE
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS CONVECTION IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...MORE AND MORE OF THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL SEE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY. BOTH THE ARW AND HRRR TRY TO
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THESE MODELS ARE ALREADY OVER DOING THE DEW
POINTS...SO THEY HAVE FAR TOO MUCH CAPE. AS A RESULT...KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY LIKE THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW.
ON SATURDAY...THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
TOWARD THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHEAST IOWA...AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE 0-3 KM SHEAR WOULD BE
FAVORABLE TO DAMAGING WINDS...THE ML CAPES /LESS THAN 250 J/KG/
WILL MAKE IT VERY UNLIKELY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
VEERS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND WARM
CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS AROUND 3.5 KM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAIN.
ON SUNDAY...THE 13.00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE
NAM/WRF CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THIS WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE
MORNING. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THAT IT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AREAS WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THE MORNING AND THROUGH
WESTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING DIFFERENCE
ALLOWS MORE 0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE TO BUILD AHEAD OF THIS SHORT
WAVE. THE NAM HAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG. MEANWHILE THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES RANGING FROM 300 TO 1200 J/KG.
WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS...THIS OPENS UP A SMALL
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SUPERCELLS COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE SHORT WAVE. IF THEY DID HAPPEN TO DEVELOP...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS HAS THIS FRONT MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS THIS FRONT ONLY
GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. 1 TO 2K 0-3 KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPES DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY AND SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND MODERATE TO STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A MESCOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN IOWA...AND THE CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD
LAYER DEPTHS AROUND 4 KM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. IN ADDITION...WITH 0-3 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE 0-1
KM SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT WOULD BE EVEN FAVORABLE OF THE
POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALONG THE WARM FRONT. IN THE WARM
SECTOR...THE CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END AS AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS BROUGHT IN ISENTROPICALLY INTO
THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THIS CAP BETWEEN 900 AND 650 MB
WILL ALLOW MOST UNSTABLE CAPES TO CLIMB INTO THE 3 TO 6K J/JG
ON TUESDAY.
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH OF
THESE DIFFERENCES START TO SHOW UP ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL
DEVELOP ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT NEAR OR
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND THIS KEEPS THE AREA IN WARM SECTOR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A STRONG
ENOUGH COLD POOL IN THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT THIS
FRONT GETS PUSHED SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA AND IT REMAINS WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE IN BOTH
SCENARIOS...THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL GREATLY
AFFECT HOW WARM WE WILL GET DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DUE TO
THIS...JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE LATER PORTION OF IT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KICK IN BY TOMORROW MORNING. SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOW LEVELS BEING TOO DRY FOR ANY
RAIN SHOWERS TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY
OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AT 25 TO 35 KT THROUGH THE
DAY. SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THOUGH
THE MAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNTIL THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
707 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST TO THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AREA OF LOW STRATO-CU HAS
DEPARTED ALL BUT THE TIP OF THE DOOR LEAVING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REST OF THE STATE. LOOKING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPILLING OVER THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AHEAD OF A
TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE NW CONUS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING OVER NW NORTH DAKOTA IN A REGION OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN. THE DISTANCE/SPEED TOOL HAS THE AREA OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS REACHING NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS
ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
INTO THE REGION...FOLLOW BY SMALL PRECIP CHANCES TOMORROW.
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO MICHIGAN BY MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
ADVANCING EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVER THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT THOUGH SKY CONDITIONS WILL START OUT CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR
BEFORE BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY LATE. IF IT WERE NOT FOR
THESE CLOUDS...WOULD HAVE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN
PLACE. DEWPOINTS FELL INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPS SHOULD NOT REACH THIS LOW DUE
TO THE CLOUD COVER. WILL SHOW LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S NEAR
THE U.P. BORDER BUT THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER. DESPITE MOISTURE
INCREASING ABOVE 10 KFT...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BELOW 6 C/KM AND
WILL HAVE A LARGE DRY WEDGE BELOW THIS HEIGHT. WILL LEAVE PRECIP
OUT OF THE FORECAST. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION...THE FLOW WILL BE
TURNING WESTERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP A DRY WEDGE BELOW 700MB...BUT PWATS WILL BE
INCREASING TO GREATER THAN AN INCH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL BE
PUSHING A 700MB THETAE GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN PWAT AXIS
WILL REMAIN OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA...THE WEAK FORCING AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWER/TSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND
N-C WISCONSIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER IN MANY
LOCATIONS THAN TODAY...BUT WONDER IF THE EAST COULD BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN ADVERTISED AS A RESULT OF CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY
FLOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
FIRST FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD CENTERS ON THE INTENSITY OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND FAR EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION...A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OR LOW WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WAA LIKELY GENERATING PCPN OVER AREAS TO THE WEST
SATURDAY AND PERHAPS PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. H850 TEMP
PROGS SUGGEST THE 850 FRONT SLIDES NORTH OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
EVENING WHILE PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD AS THE 45 KNOT
SOUTHWEST LLJ ADVECTS INCREASING MOISTURE/PWATS INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...REACHING NEAR 1.5 OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TONGUE OF HIGHER PWATS WILL BE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF PASSING COOL FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS...BUT TO DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONTS AND A FOCUS OF HEAVY RAINS...WILL
HOLD OFF A MENTION OF AN ESF FOR NOW. BEST INSTABILITY LIES TO THE
WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH ON SUNDAY...BUT DOES HAVE INCREASING
MID LEVEL WINDS AS THE SHORT WAVE AXIS SHIFTS OVER ON SUNDAY.
A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING
DRIFTS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE PRIMARY
BOUNDARY WHICH SEPARATES A RELATIVE DRIER AIR MASS TO THE NORTH AND
THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. BUT THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE INCREASES STARTING MONDAY ON THE LOCATION AND RETURN
OF THIS BOUNDARY. SUBTLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THIS FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY AND LIFT IT BACK NORTH. BUFKIT CAPES FROM THE GFS RUN
GENERATING CAPES OF AROUND 3000 FOR TUESDAY. MEANWHILE A DEEPER
UPPER LOW SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE GENERAL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES AND MAY AFFECT THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
PERIOD.
OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE...WHILE FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LOCATION AND LIKELY PERIODS OF
CONVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
VFR CLEAR TONIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
636 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
AT 3 PM...A 1018 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI.
THIS HIGH HAS KEPT THE AREA MAINLY CLEAR TODAY. FURTHER
WEST...MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. SOME OF THE
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS CONVECTION IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...MORE AND MORE OF THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL SEE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY. BOTH THE ARW AND HRRR TRY TO
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THESE MODELS ARE ALREADY OVER DOING THE DEW
POINTS...SO THEY HAVE FAR TOO MUCH CAPE. AS A RESULT...KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY LIKE THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW.
ON SATURDAY...THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
TOWARD THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHEAST IOWA...AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE 0-3 KM SHEAR WOULD BE
FAVORABLE TO DAMAGING WINDS...THE ML CAPES /LESS THAN 250 J/KG/
WILL MAKE IT VERY UNLIKELY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
VEERS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND WARM
CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS AROUND 3.5 KM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAIN.
ON SUNDAY...THE 13.00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE
NAM/WRF CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THIS WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE
MORNING. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THAT IT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AREAS WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THE MORNING AND THROUGH
WESTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING DIFFERENCE
ALLOWS MORE 0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE TO BUILD AHEAD OF THIS SHORT
WAVE. THE NAM HAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG. MEANWHILE THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES RANGING FROM 300 TO 1200 J/KG.
WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS...THIS OPENS UP A SMALL
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SUPERCELLS COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE SHORT WAVE. IF THEY DID HAPPEN TO DEVELOP...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS HAS THIS FRONT MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS THIS FRONT ONLY
GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. 1 TO 2K 0-3 KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPES DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY AND SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND MODERATE TO STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A MESCOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN IOWA...AND THE CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD
LAYER DEPTHS AROUND 4 KM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. IN ADDITION...WITH 0-3 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE 0-1
KM SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT WOULD BE EVEN FAVORABLE OF THE
POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALONG THE WARM FRONT. IN THE WARM
SECTOR...THE CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END AS AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS BROUGHT IN ISENTROPICALLY INTO
THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THIS CAP BETWEEN 900 AND 650 MB
WILL ALLOW MOST UNSTABLE CAPES TO CLIMB INTO THE 3 TO 6K J/JG
ON TUESDAY.
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH OF
THESE DIFFERENCES START TO SHOW UP ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL
DEVELOP ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT NEAR OR
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND THIS KEEPS THE AREA IN WARM SECTOR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A STRONG
ENOUGH COLD POOL IN THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT THIS
FRONT GETS PUSHED SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA AND IT REMAINS WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE IN BOTH
SCENARIOS...THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL GREATLY
AFFECT HOW WARM WE WILL GET DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DUE TO
THIS...JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS AT THE TAF SITES IS WITH THE LATER PORTION OF IT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KICK IN BY TOMORROW MORNING. SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOW LEVELS BEING TOO DRY FOR ANY
RAIN SHOWERS TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY
OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AT 25 TO 35 KT THROUGH THE
DAY. SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THOUGH
THE MAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNTIL THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
342 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
AT 3 PM...A 990 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN ANS THEN SOUTH ALONG THE WEST SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A
BROKEN DECK OF INSTABILITY CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN LAYER
OF 850 TO 800 MB MOISTURE AND 10 C/KM LAPSE RATES. THESE STEEP
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO BRINGING DOWN WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH.
FOR TONIGHT...THE RAP CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE BROKEN DECK OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
THROUGH 13.03Z...AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 13.03Z AND 13.06Z. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST UP TO 25 MPH THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION
DEVELOPS.
FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT AS DIUNRAL HEATING TAKES PLACE...900 TO
850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 10 C/KM. THIS WILL MIX
DOWN DRIER AIR MUCH ALOFT. THE AWIPS MIX TOOL SUGGEST THAT DEW
POINTS WILL IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...
AND AROUND 40 WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS 5 TO 10
DEGREE LOWER THAN THE MOS. THIS LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO
THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. UNLIKE THIS AFTERNOON...THE WINDS
SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY LESS 7 MPH UP TO 800 MB...SO NOT EXPECTING
TOO MUCH WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE 12.12Z ARW GENERATES SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS IN THIS
MODELS ARE RUNNING NEARLY 10 DEGREES TOO HIGH. THIS IS RESULTING
IN TOO HIGH OF CAPES. IN ADDITION...THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY.
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE STRONGEST 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS A RESULT
WENT DRY DURING THE MORNING...AND THEN KEPT A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE NORTHWEST OF A NEILLSVILLE WISCONSIN TO OELWEIN IOWA LINE.
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING...AND THEN MOVE EAST
AS THE LOW LEVEL JETS VEERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS
CLIMBING INTO THE 3.5 TO 4 KM RANGE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
UP TO 1.8 INCHES...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAIN. WHILE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE INHIBITED BY THE LACK OF 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR...AND ML CAPES
LESS THAN 250 J/KG.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE
POSITION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW...SO JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE THIS
MORNING. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS LOW AND THE
APPROACHING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL KEEP THE
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES IN
WITH THE GUSTS DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND THEN SUSTAINED
SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 10 KNOTS BEFORE 06Z. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL PLACE BEHIND THE LOW AND THE WITH THE CYCLONIC
FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL. THESE CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT EARLY THIS EVENING ONCE THE
BEST MOISTURE MOVES PAST THE REGION AND AS COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BEGINS. CLEAR SKIES THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE HIGH OVER THE AREA.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1145 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
MAIN OVERNIGHT FOCUS IS ON THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. TIMING
HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR WITH
BRINGING THIS BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT THEN
SHOULD GET INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN TOWARD 3-5AM AND OUT OF WESTERN
WISCONSIN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. 0-3KM MUCAPE CONTINUES TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON DOWN TO AROUND 300-500 J/KG. SO THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCALLY
PRETTY LOW. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME
GUSTY TO AROUND 25-35MPH AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THOUGH AND
THE WINDS COME TO AN END.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
AT 3 PM...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM EASTERN KANSAS
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF HUDSON BAY. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE FOUND
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME
MAINLY CLEAR...AND THEN THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...
MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST
SYNOPTIC AND DEEPEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF
THE FRONT. MEANWHILE MUCH OF THE 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL GO TO SATURATING THE VERY DRY AIR
OVER THE REGION. AS A RESULT...EXPECT THE HIGHEST CHANCES /55 TO
65 PERCENT/ OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE FOUND ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE AREAS SOUTH OF THIS INTERSTATE WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES
RANGING FROM 24 TO 54 PERCENT.
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AND
THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH WIND
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES...FALLING FROM 14C AT
12.12Z...TO 6 TO 8C BY 12.18Z...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
FOR THE WEEKEND...THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH SLOWER AT THIS
DEVELOPMENT AND MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY ON SATURDAY. THE NAM
APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER...SO TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
CONSENSUS OF THE GEM...GFS...AND ECMWF. WITH THIS MIND...IT LOOKS
LIKE 2 CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
FIRST WILL OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THEN FOLLOW CORFIDI VECTORS
SOUTHEAST INTO MISSOURI. MEANWHILE THE SECOND COMPLEX DEVELOPS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS COMPLEX
WILL ALSO FOLLOW CORFIDI VECTORS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION...BUT
THE CAPE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS GENERALLY LESS THAN
500 J/KG AND THE SYSTEM SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES INTO MORE
STABLE AIR.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION. THE GFS MOVES THIS FRONT NORTH TO THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE ECMWF KEEPS THIS FRONT CLOSER TO INTERSTATE
80. THIS WILL GREATLY AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WITH SUCH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...OPTED
TO STAY WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014
A BAND OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS BAND WILL LAST FOR ABOUT 2-3 HOURS WITH CONDITIONS
LIKELY STAYING AT VFR AS THE RAIN COMES THROUGH...IF IT HITS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME
GUSTY INTO THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE. A BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY MOVE
THROUGH BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS WELL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING
BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1121 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
ON SATELLITE...APPEARS THAT CONVECTION IS SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST FOR
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...FOR SW COLORADO
EAST OF MANCOS AND OVER THE SWRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. RAP MODEL
SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
FOR THE ERN UINTA MOUNTAINS...APPROACHING FRONT MAY TRIGGER AN
EVENING SHOWER OR STORM. STRONGER CONVECTION IS NORTH OF THE
BORDER IN WYOMING...BUT THIS COULD BACK BUILD INTO DAGGETT COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
INCREASED PREFRONTAL SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...THOUGH SURFACE WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AROUND
9PM IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. ELEVATED WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN UTAH AND NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO SATURDAY MORNING THEN WILL INCREASE IN POTENTIAL AS
DAYTIME HEATING BECOMES A FACTOR IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...EXPECT SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL. AREAS OF SOUTHERN
UTAH AND COLORADO WILL STAY DRY AND QUITE WINDY ON SATURDAY. SEE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES.
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HINDER MAX TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND. GENERAL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND TURNING
SOUTHWEST MONDAY. THE MIDRANGE MODELS HAVE COME TOGETHER IN A
SOLUTION THAT STRENGTHENS A TROUGH OVER THE PACNW MONDAY AND DIGS
SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION TUE. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE TUE AS THE TROUGH
DRAWS NEARER. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER AND BREEZY TO
WINDY.
THE MODELS BRING A CLOSED 500 MB LOW INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
TUE NIGHT AND WED AND PUSH A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WED MORNING IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. 700 MB
TEMPS NEAR ZERO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MTS WED NGT SO
THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL WED NGT AND THU MORNING ABOVE
ABOUT 12K FEET. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THOSE AREAS MAY RESULT
IN ACCUMULATION SMALL HAIL AT HIGH ELEVATIONS AS WELL.
FRIDAY WILL SEE DRIER CONDITIONS AND POST FRONTAL/POST TROUGH NW
FLOW ALOFT...WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
MECHANICAL CHOP WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE TURBULENCE CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST
UTAH WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS UTAH AND WRN COLORADO...REACHING
THE SRN UTAH AND COLORADO BORDER BY 00Z SATURDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED -SHRA OR -TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z SATURDAY
CONTINUING THROUGH 03Z SATURDAY EVENING.
SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25-35KTS WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 16Z SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WITH VERY LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL KEEP CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS GOING UNTIL
ABOUT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT AND PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AREAS WITHIN THE WARNING INCLUDE FIRE
ZONES 290..292...203 AND 207 BELOW 9500 FEET. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NE UT...AND NW AND CENTRAL CO SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT PUSH THROUGH SOUTHWEST CO UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON.
THUS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND DRY FUELS SHOULD
REDEVELOP SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SOUTHWEST CO...INCLUDING
FIRE ZONES 290 AND 207 BELOW 9500 FEET. AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MOAB TO DELTA SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH LESS WIND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 344 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER LEVELS NOW CONFINED TO THE GREEN RIVER IN NORTHEAST UTAH
AND EXTREME NORTHWEST COLORADO. EVEN THOUGH LEVELS ARE DROPPING
ON AREA WATERWAYS...FLOWS WILL REMAIN SWIFT FOR AT LEAST A FEW
MORE WEEKS AS HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK CONTINUES TO MELT OFF.
PAY ATTENTION TO RIVER...CREEK AND STREAM LEVELS AND WATCH FOR
DEBRIS BUILDUP. PLEASE USE CAUTION IF YOU PLAN ON BOATING DOWN OR
RECREATING NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ207-290.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JDC
FIRE WEATHER...CC
HYDROLOGY...JAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
442 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TODAY AND DISSIPATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EAST TODAY WHILE THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT HAS REMAINED ACROSS SC/GA BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEAST. MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AS A RESULT. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SC DURING THE DAYTIME...
POSSIBLY REACHING OUR FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW DEEP WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES RATHER WEAK FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
90 DEGREES TODAY. INCREASING SURFACE TEMPS INLAND AND THE
WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A SEA BREEZE BEGINNING TO
PUSH INLAND BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
NORMALLY THE COMBINATION OF AN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
AND APPROXIMATELY 2000 JOULES OF CAPE WOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER THE MODERATE TO
STRONG NVA WILL CREATE SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WHICH COULD
STIFLE ANY INITIAL UPDRAFTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW 500 MB TEMPS
WARMING SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY SO THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE GETTING
LESS CONDUCIVE TO ROBUST UPDRAFTS. SOME OF THE NORMALLY WET
GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY DRY TODAY. FOR EXAMPLE THE NAM AND THE
ECMWF ARE PRETTY CONSERVATIVE WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE
DAY. WITH REGARD TO HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS...THE NSSL WRF WHICH
HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL DURING THE LAST WEEK...SHOWS
MINIMAL COVERAGE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THE RUC-13 AND HRRR BOTH SHOW SOME ACTIVITY IGNITING ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THE FIRST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED BUT IT WILL BE ISOLATED. THE
SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY COME INTO PLAY AT SOME POINT...PERHAPS
AFTER 2 PM OR SO. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS AS SOME FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONT
DROPS IN FROM THE NW AND COLLIDES WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WE BUMPED
POPS DOWN A BIT TODAY...SHOWING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE FARTHER INLAND.
ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY WANE AFTER
SUNSET. OVERNIGHT WE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS 69-74.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING EARLY IN THE EVENING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG/SEVERE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND FALL INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AT NIGHT AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT
SHIFTS SOUTH INTO FLORIDA IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...
EXPANSIVE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ALOFT. HAVE LIMITED ANY MENTION OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO MAINLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND INLAND PARTS OF
FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND DEPARTING/WEAKENING FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER 90S INLAND WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TUESDAY...STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL WITH EXPANSIVE RIDGING
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN
THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...EXPECT A
RAIN-FREE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND FROM THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SOME LATE IN THE WEEK
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED INLAND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE COAST. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK THOUGH WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER AT EITHER TERMINAL AS SOME WEAKENING UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. PRIMARY SHOT AT CONVECTION WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND A
BIT EARLIER THAN ON FRIDAY. LATER IN THE DAY A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA...POTENTIALLY
MAINTAINING SOME ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WE ADDED
VICINITY THUNDER TO BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADD PREVAILING OR TEMPO
THUNDER IF TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE DIMINISHING
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SMALL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
MAINLY A SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2 TO
3 FT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BUMP WINDS UP CLOSE TO 15 KT
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBO OF SOME ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS THAT ARE
INCREASING THE DAILY TIDAL RANGE AND MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE A MARGINAL MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS AT THE SC BEACHES TODAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY ON
SUNDAY THEN DISSIPATE AS IT DROPS SOUTH ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. THE FLOW WILL THEN BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MINOR NOCTURNAL SURGES ARE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE MORE LIKELY BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED.
OVERALL...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN
2-3 FT. THUS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ/JRL
MARINE...JAQ/JRL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
428 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
ONE THING IS FOR SURE...THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A VERY
COLORFUL ONE ON THE MPX RADAR. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT THIS PERIOD...THOUGH
THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER THROWN INTO THE MIX
AS WELL...THOUGH AT THE MOMENT...WE FEEL THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
IS THE GREATER OF THE TWO THREATS IN THE MPX CWA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING UP THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS A CLOSED LOW AT H5 NEAR
THE MT/ALB/SASK BORDER...WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES NOTED FROM NV/ID
INTO THE DAKOTAS IN THE SW FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGE. OF ALL OF THESE
WAVES...THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL /AS MEASURED BY POTENTIAL VORT/ IS THE
ONE BACK OVER NV/ID AND IT IS THE ONE THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS NEB THIS EVENING AS IT
REACHES THE CO PLAINS BY 00Z AND EVENTUALLY ENDS UP NEAR LA CROSSE
BY 12Z SUN.
AT THE SFC...THIS WRN UPPER TROUGH HAS A FAIRLY BROAD LEE SIDE
TROUGH IN PLACE THIS MORNING FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH WRN
NEB...THOUGH WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE THE CONSOLIDATION OF THIS
TROUGH INTO A SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW OVER ERN CO. AT THE MOMENT THERE
IS REALLY NO WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT...JUST A PLUME OF MID 50 AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS DOWN INTO
CENTRAL TX. AS THIS PERIOD UNFOLDS...THIS SFC TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHILE THE COLORADO SFC LOW SLOWLY
DEEPENS ACROSS ERN CO...BEFORE BEING EJECTED NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
THE MAIN UPPER WAVE...EVENTUALLY REACHING CENTRAL MN BY 12Z SUN.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD...WE HAVE SEEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STRUGGLE TO WORK EAST ACROSS MN...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN CONVECTION
DIMINISHING AS IT REACHES MN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES AND THE SFC TROUGH WORKS INTO THE DAKOTAS...WE WILL SEE
THAT AXIS OF INSTABILITY BEND INTO MN. ACCOMPANYING THIS INSTABILITY
WILL BE AN H85 LLJ ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS THAT WILL BE SETTING UP
CAMP OVER THE MPX AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING/NIGHT
ACROSS THE MPX CWA...WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
THE HI-RES CAMS CERTAINLY PAINT THIS PICTURE OCCURRING...WITH SOME
PRETTY HEFTY QPFS RESULTING. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL SET UP...BUT MOST RECENT CAM
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND HOPWRF ARE PAINTING QUITE A BIT
OF ACTIVITY TO AREAS SOUTH OF A TWIN CITIES TO MONTEVIDEO LINE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHICH WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
DRIVING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN TRACKING ALONG I-90 IN SODAK
OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT...AS THE NV/ID WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KTS
/THATS NOT A TYPO!/...WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING A FAIRLY HEALTHY
MCS TRACKING ALONG ROUGHLY AN OMAHA TO LA CROSSE/EAU CLAIRE LINE
OVERNIGHT.
FOR FLASH FLOODING...DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A WATCH NOW...AS
CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO ISSUE ONE AT THE MOMENT. A GOOD EXAMPLE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMES
WITH THE 3Z HOPWRF. MEMBERS 1 AND 4 SHOWED 2-3" OF RUN TOTAL QPF
AROUND MCLEOD COUNTY...WHILE MEMBERS 2 AND 3 HAVE LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH THE SAME AREA. THE SPREAD SEEN IN THE HI-RES MODELS HAS
KEPT US FROM ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT. AS OF
WRITING THIS THOUGH...THE GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING LOOKS TO
BE FROM SW/SC MN UP INTO EC MN/WRN WI WHERE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TO THE NORTH END OF THE EXPECTED OMAHA TO EAU
CLAIRE MCS.
ON THE SEVERE END OF THINGS...SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER UP INTO SW MN...THOUGH AM NOT OVERLY EXCITED IN THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL AT THE MOMENT. THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR LOOKS TO BE
THAT THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH FORCING UP THIS DIRECTION DURING THE
SHORT TERM...WHICH WILL KEEP INSTABILITY FROM BUILDING UP TOO MUCH
BEFORE IT IS QUICKLY RELEASED IN ONE OF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL BE IN THE SW MN...WHICH WILL HAVE AN
OCCLUDED/WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY BY 00Z...SO THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL TO HAVE STORMS GET A BIT UNRULY...THOUGH WOULD BE MUCH
MORE CONCERNED WITH SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER INTO MN IF
THINGS WERE COMING IN ABOUT 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN THEY ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON DEEPENING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS MN. A COLD FRONT
TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH EASTERN AREAS OF MN IN
THE MORNING AND ACROSS WESTERN WI EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON THE OUTCOME OF THE CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND HOW
MUCH HEATING CAN OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT... THERE REMAINS A
THREAT FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WI EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THE
STORMS DO DEVELOP...THERE IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS STRONG
SHEAR REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG WITH A GROWING AXIS OF CAPE FORECAST.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE FA SHOULD BE DRY ALONG WITH RATHER BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY REMAIN THE ONLY QUIET/DRY PERIODS IN THE
LONGER TERM AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE FA. THE
BALANCE OF THE LONGER TERM SURE LOOKS WET AND STORMY AS A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND THEN BEGINS MOVING SLOWLY EAST...REACHING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE H5 HEIGHTS ARE TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
THERE ARE TWO PROBLEMS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. ONE WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION DAY AFTER DAY AS
PIECES OF ENERGY EMANATE FROM THE UPPER LOW AND SPILL INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL COME BACK OUR WAY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT AND THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WI
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEXT WEEK
FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE ACROSS OUR
AREA WITH POCKETS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES. THERE IS SPREAD ON THE
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE GFS OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MN WITH THE ECMWF OVER SOUTHERN MN AND IA. WHAT IS
IMPORTANT IS THE SIGNAL FROM THE MODELS ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT WITH A SURFACE FRONT SITTING ON US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
IF THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN MATERIALIZES NEXT WEEK...ON TOP OF THE RAIN
WE ARE EXPECTING TODAY AND SUNDAY...WILL RESULT IN MAIN STEM RIVERS
RISING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH FLOODING BECOMING A WIDESPREAD ISSUE.
THE SECOND CONCERN NEXT WEEK WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER. AT THIS
POINT...LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK BAD AS THE FRONT BEGINS
LIFTING BACK NORTH INTO MN/WI AS A WARM FRONT. SPC ALREADY HAS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3 COVERING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MN AND THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A VERY ACTIVE WEEK...IN MORE WAYS THEN ONE...IS
COMING OUR WAY. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
THERE WILL BE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES. STORMS CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS
SD...AND THIS COMPLEX WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE ON THE
DOORSTEP OF KAXN/KRWF BEFORE SUNRISE /PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 08-09Z/.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST...BUT MOST
TAF SITES IN MN WILL HAVE A SHOT AT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES
OF THUNDER BETWEEN 10-15Z IN THE WEST AND 14-20Z IN THE EAST. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER /MORE INTENSE/ COMPLEX OF STORMS THIS
EVENING/NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THIS SECOND ROUND IS MORE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME.
KMSP...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING BUT THE EASTWARD
ADVANCING SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE AIRPORT
BEFORE THE NOON HOUR...WITH A PRONOUNCED DECREASE IN INTENSITY
BEFORE GETTING IN THE VICINITY OF KMSP. IN FACT...THE AMOUNT OF
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OR STORM COVERAGE IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN IN
EASTERN MN AS COMPARED TO WESTERN MN FOR THE EARLY CONVECTION.
THAT BEING SAID THIS IS A PATTERN WHERE SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS
COULD HANG AROUND MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NITE...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA/IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS S AT 13G25KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR/TSRA LIKELY EARLY...THEN BECOMING VFR. WINDS WSW AT
10G20KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR TSRA MON NITE. WINDS SSE 5 TO 10KTS.
TUE...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS S AT 5KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
356 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT |354 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
ELONGATED SFC HIGH STRETCHES FROM NWRN ONTARIO TO LAKE SUPERIOR TO
LAKE MICH THIS MORNING. SFC CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES OVER NE COLO
EARLY THIS MORNING ON FORWARD FLANK OF UPPER TROF OVER ROCKIES. A
WELL DEVELOPED LLJ STRETCHES ROM THE TX PANHANDLE TO THE NRN PLAINS.
WITHIN THIS ARE OF HIGH MSTR TRANSPORT AND DECREASING INSTABILITY
CLUSTER OF STORMS HAVE ERUPTED OVER PAST 4 -6 HRS. NRN CLUSTER IS
DECREASING IN INTENSITY AS IT OUTRUNS MAIN AXIS OF LLJ. SRN CLUSTER
OVER ERN SODAK IS CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS IT IS IN
A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION TO ACCESS LLJ/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT NRN EDGE
OF MID LVL CAP. A FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS HAVE SCOOTED ACROSS THE WRN
CWA OTHERWISE A CLOUD FILLED MORNING CONTINUES. TEMPS RANGE FROM LOW
40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO MID 60S OVER BRD LAKES REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
TODAY...AS HEIGHTS COLLAPSE WITHIN MID LVL RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. ELONGATED SFC
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM KS NORTH INTO ERN DAKOTAS. MAX MSTR
TRANSPORT AT 85H WILL ELONGATE INTO WRN CWA TODAY. LATEST SPC SREF
CPTP SUGGESTS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE
STORMS PRIMARILY OVER WRN CWA THROUGH 18Z AND THEN SPREAD FARTHER
EAST INTO REMAINDER OF CWA LATER TODAY. HOWEVER NAM/EC FCST OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR/MUCAPE SUGGEST OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONVECTION OF ANY GREAT
EXTENT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT. HIGHEST QPF POTENTIAL NEAR
BRD/CASS LAKES TODAY CLOSER TO BEST MSTR TRANSPORT/SYNOPTIC SCALE
OMEGA.
TONIGHT...VERY TRICKY FCST REGARDING HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT MAGNITUDE APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING TOWARDS WISC ZONES BY
12Z. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WOULD GUARANTEE
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE CWA..THE POTENTIAL FOR A CORRIDOR
OF HEAVY PRECIP MAY THWART SOME HIGHER QPF AT LOCATIONS FARTHER
NORTH. SEVERAL MDLS FCST SIGNIFICANT THICKNESS COOLING WITHIN THE
ZONE OF STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE TWIN PORTS SOUTH TO PINE
COUNTY FROM 06Z-12Z. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA OVERNIGHT FOR
UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS. STRONG/SVR STORM THREAT
SEEMS QUITE LIMITED. HEAVY RAIN PARAMETERS SUCH AS PWATS/WARM CLOUD
DEPTH/LLJ MAGNITUDE RISE STEADILY ACROSS THE SOUTH/SERN CWA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WITH APPROACH OF SFC LOW IT LOOKS LIKE MARINE
LAYER WILL DO ITS PART AND PROMOTE A NORTHEAST WIND AND A SATURATED
LAYER AT THE SFC SO FOG DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. THIS WAS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS FCST/GRIDS AND WILL CONTINUE.
TOMORROW...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SFC LOW/MID LVL TROF WILL SWING
NORTHEAST INTO WRN ONTARIO BY LATE IN THE DAY. EARLY MORNING
RAIN/STORMS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD. SOME CONCERN FOR FLOODING ISSUES
AGAIN ACROSS BORDERLAND AS STRONG FORCING WITH EJECTING LOW MAY
GENERATE A BRIEF WINDOW OF HEAVIER PRECIP. THIS MAY AGGRAVATE
EXISTING HIGH STREAMS/RIVERS.
.HYDRO...ESF CURRENTLY ISSUED AND WILL UPDATE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
GENERAL IDEA THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
NOT CONFIDENT TO ISSUE A WATCH YET AS COMPLICATION IN ACTUAL QPF MAY
ARISE DUE TO A CONTINUATION OF MODEL DIFFERENCES AND POTENTIAL FOR
MOST MSTR TRANSPORT TO FEED INTO MCS DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF CWA.
PARTICULARLY TROUBLING IS PARALLEL NAM SEQUENCE OF SIM REFLECTIVITY
TODAY. IT KEEPS A VOID OF PRECIP OVER ERN CWA TODAY AS CLUSTERS OF
STORMS REFORM OVER SRN PART OF STATE. PARALLEL AND OPS VERSION OF
4KM NAM AGREE ON SIGNIFICANT PRECIP THREAT OVER WRN EDGE OF CWA
TODAY...SHIFTING TO WISC ZONES TONIGHT....AND THEN ACROSS BORDERLAND
TOMORROW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
IT WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH OR NEAR THE REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE
RAIN THIS WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP IN THE
BORDERLAND SUNDAY EVENING BUT THAT SHOULD END BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY
GIVING THE REGION A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM THE RAIN. A SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2
IN MN AND WI.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S. ANOTHER SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH MN AND WI ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE WILL BE A SHORT BREAK FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR/IFR ON SATURDAY. WAA
HAS LED TO SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA THAT WILL
IMPACT MOST TAFS TONIGHT. WE INCLUDED A TEMPO OR VCSH AT ALL TAF
SITES EXCEPT KHYR TONIGHT.
A LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS LATE
THIS EVENING...AND THEY ARE FORECAST BY THE HRRR TO IMPACT KBRD BY
11-12Z...THEN CONTINUE EAST/NORTHEAST. THE STABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER OVER THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH SOME AS THE
COMPLEX PROGRESSES INTO OUR AREA. TIMING THE SHOWERS/STORMS IS STILL
A CHALLENGE AT THIS POINT...AND WE FOLLOWED SOME OF THE SHORT TERM
MODELS FOR TIMING. IT NOW APPEARS THE LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE
DELAYED SOME...AND WE MADE ADJUSTMENTS.
AREAS OF FOG SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 58 51 68 52 / 90 90 90 20
INL 61 51 62 51 / 70 70 80 60
BRD 68 60 74 53 / 90 80 70 10
HYR 72 57 73 54 / 60 90 90 10
ASX 68 52 73 52 / 60 80 90 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ143>147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR LSZ140>142.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1242 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
WE UPDATED THIS EVENING TO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA SOONER. OBSERVATIONS SHOWED SOME OF THOSE ECHOES OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WERE HITTING THE GROUND...AND WE EXPECT TO
SEE THAT AS WELL OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE 70S PREVAILED TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
PASSED OVER THE REGION. SFC ANALYSIS AT 300 PM SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS
SITUATED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN...ALONG A LINE FROM KINL TO KDLH.
AS THE RIDGE PUSHES EAST INTO WISCONSIN/MN ARROWHEAD THIS
EVENING...THEN EXITS OVER MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT...WINDS WILL
TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. RAIN AND
TSTM CHANCES ARRIVE IN THE WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS
EVENING...SPREADING EAST THROUGH SAT MORNING AS THE FORECAST AREA
BECOMES SITUATED IN A WARM RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD H85 LOW
ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
30-35 KT LLJ PUSHES ACROSS MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASES
TO 40-50 KT OUT OF THE GULF AS IT CENTERS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION SAT/SAT NIGHT. THE GFS/NAM/ECM ARE ALL SHOWING PWATS
SOAR BACK INTO THE 1.5" NEIGHBORHOOD /WHICH IS 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ FOR THE DLH CWA BY
SAT AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
AND POTENTIAL LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS IN ALREADY SATURDAY
AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ROTATING NWD THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE INITIATED BY A S/W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER
OVER SRN MANITOBA...ROTATING NEWD FROM SE SD INTO WRN ONTARIO.
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100KT JET MAX.
THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE EMBEDDED WAVE FROM
ERN NEB/WRN IA INTO NE MN. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THIS SYSTEM AND THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. ALTHOUGH STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...MOST OF THE T-STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA AS THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY AND
FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND.
A COOL EAST WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP AREAS AROUND THE TWIN
PORTS AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD IN THE STABLE AIR MASS. SO ANY STORMS
THAT DO LIFT NWD ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED.
A BROAD PUSH OF VERY MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS
MN/WI THIS WEEKEND AND INCREASE THE AMT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. PWATS
WILL RISE ABOVE AN INCH AND A QUARTER DURING THIS TIME AND ALLOW FOR
UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM EXITS LATE SUN
NIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED HIGHER AMTS ABOVE 3 INCHES AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY SINCE MUCH OF THE AREA HAS
SATURATED OR NEARLY SATURATED SFC CONDITIONS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A
STRONG SWLY FLOW. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS ON MON NIGHT AND RIDES EWD THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY SKIRT THE SRN SECTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SERIES OF WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY STRONG
HUDSON BAY HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL KEEP THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE SOUTH. HAVE KEPT HIGHER CHC POPS
TO THE SOUTH FOR WED AND THUR.
A PERSISTENT E/NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP AREAS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE 50S...THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON MONDAY WHERE A SW
WIND WILL KEEP THE LAKE INDUCED AIR MASS AT BAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE
AREAS OF FOG OFF THE LAKE MAKING CONDITIONS EVEN MORE PLEASANT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVER NIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR/IFR ON SATURDAY. WAA
HAS LED TO SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA THAT WILL
IMPACT MOST TAFS TONIGHT. WE INCLUDED A TEMPO OR VCSH AT ALL TAF
SITES EXCEPT KHYR TONIGHT.
A LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS LATE
THIS EVENING...AND THEY ARE FORECAST BY THE HRRR TO IMPACT KBRD BY
11-12Z...THEN CONTINUE EAST/NORTHEAST. THE STABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER OVER THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH SOME AS THE
COMPLEX PROGRESSES INTO OUR AREA. TIMING THE SHOWERS/STORMS IS STILL
A CHALLENGE AT THIS POINT...AND WE FOLLOWED SOME OF THE SHORT TERM
MODELS FOR TIMING. IT NOW APPEARS THE LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE
DELAYED SOME...AND WE MADE ADJUSTMENTS.
AREAS OF FOG SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 50 65 52 74 / 90 90 20 10
INL 51 63 51 73 / 70 80 60 10
BRD 61 71 54 78 / 80 70 10 30
HYR 56 71 54 79 / 80 90 10 10
ASX 52 71 52 77 / 80 90 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ143>147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR LSZ140>142.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...STEWART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
322 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
MEAN CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
WITH A LEAD PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
HAD H50 20-30 METER HEIGHT FALLS. H85 MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ONTO THE PLAINS WITH LOWER/MID TEENS FEEDING INTO
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL SD SOUTHWARD INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS COMBO OF WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR AN ISOLATED MOSTLY NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY ALONG/NORTH OF I80...THAT CONTINUES
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY BY 18Z.
OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS TODAY AS WELL.
AHEAD OF IT...INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A
WINDY/WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT WE COULD
MEET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 BY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THUS WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE
AREAS.
MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-
UPPER 60S BY AFTERNOON AS WELL. MID LEVEL H70 TEMPS OF +12 TO +14
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE EAST...WHICH WILL
LIKELY EFFECTIVELY CAP MOST OF THE ARE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST CONVECTION INDEED BREAKS OUT WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS WAY OVERDONE.
BELIEVE BEST SCENARIO FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA WILL BE VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER 21Z ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AND
FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...SIMILAR TO
LATEST RAP MODEL AND 4KM WRF DEPICTIONS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL
JET BEGINS TO RESTRENGTHEN. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WITHIN
AN AREA OF STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS EARLY ON. PW VALUES ALSO INCREASE TO JUST OVER 2
INCHES DURING THIS TIME...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I80. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A
WINDOW FOR A TORNADO THREAT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION
SPECIALLY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING AS 0-1KM SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40KT. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPC HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND HAVE VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEVERE STORMS
WILL DEVELOP...FIRST IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SPREADING EAST/SOUTHEAST TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING. GIVEN NUMEROUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ACROSS THE REGION...
IT`S ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE OF THE WEATHER LATER TODAY.
WHILE THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER LINGERING ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE LAST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE PLEASANT WITH WESTERLY DRYING WINDS
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER DEVELOPING WAVE
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS TO THE AREA BY MONDAY. GIVEN
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES...THE REGION IS UNDER ANOTHER
SLIGHT RISK FROM THE SPC FOR DAY 3.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
HEALTHY CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE AREA...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR SEVERE RISK. THIS WAVE SHOULD PUSH NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA
BY 12Z TUESDAY. IT DOES GET HOT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS HEADING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...AND IT GETS FAIRLY MUGGY WITH
DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S AND MAYBE EVEN LOWER 70S. WILL
CONTINUE DRY TREND INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER
WAVE MOVE INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING STORMS BACK TO
THE FORECAST. USED MODEL BLENDED DATA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PICK UP LATER TONIGHT...LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL GUSTS AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL JET PROMPTED THE
INCLUSION OF WIND SHEAR AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BY
MORNING COULD BRING A FEW TSTMS TO THE ERN NEBR REGION...BUT
COVERAGE/CHANCES APPEARED TOO LOW TO MENTION IN 06Z TAFS.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE FURTHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTN
AND THE TSTM THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG UPPER SYSTEM PUSH INTO THE AREA. ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAIN GREATLY REDUCING VSBYS...HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 KTS OR
MORE COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
WPC HAS FORECAST 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS A PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY...HEAVIEST AXIS IS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I80. THESE VALUES ARE NEAR 3/6 HOURLY FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES. BECAUSE OF THIS...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. IT HAS BEEN
SEVERAL DAYS SINCE WE`VE HAD SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL...THUS WILL ONLY
MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN OUR LOCAL FORECAST. HAVE OPTED TO
NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CERTAINLY HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ANY TRAINING OF STORMS TONIGHT AND ISSUE SPOT FLOOD
WARNINGS AS NECESSARY. PW VALUES DO INCREASE TO RIGHT AROUND 2
INCHES...AND K INDEX DOES INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ051>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR IAZ069-079-080-090-091.&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...CHERMOK
HYDROLOGY...DEWALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1116 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
SEVERE WEATHER IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.
UPPER AIR CHARTS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS WERE AS
HIGH AS AROUND 100 METERS AT 500 MB. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAS A 105
KNOT JET MAX AT 300 MB OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO. THERMAL TROUGH AT 700 MB
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. 850 MB MOISTURE WAS LACKING LOCALLY...BUT WILL BE
RETURNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP DEWPOINTS OF 16 C OR MORE THAT WERE
OVER WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION...WE COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY LINGER OR WE MAY SEE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT FROM 4 PM TO MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
THAT IS NOT TO SAY SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT POSSIBLE BEFORE OR AFTER
THAT...BUT THAT IS THE MAIN WINDOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MAY BECOME TOO WARM FOR CONVECTION BEFORE EARLY
EVENING...WITH 12Z NAM INCREASING 700 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE 11-
14C RANGE AT 21Z. BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE CAP WILL DECREASE OR
BREAK BY 00Z OR SOONER. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO KEEP
OUR AREA CAPPED UNTIL CLOSER TO 6 OR 7 PM BUT THOSE WERE NOT FAVORED
AT THIS TIME. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE HRRR MODEL DOES
WITH THIS SYSTEM...SINCE IT HAS DONE A GOOD JOB FOR THE MOST PART ON
SOME OF OUR RECENT SEVERE EVENTS.
THE FOCUS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/COLD
FRONT PUSHING EAST AND ALSO NEAR AND EAST OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
MAIN DRY LINE SHOULD BE FARTHER SOUTH IN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME HIGHLY UNSTABLE...WITH ML CAPE VALUES
POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR FROM 30-50
KNOTS. SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY MERGE OR
COMBINE INTO ONE OR MORE COMPLEXES...WITH THREAT GRADUALLY SHIFTING
MORE TOWARD WIND AND HEAVY RAIN AFTER 10 PM. TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
HIGHEST NEAR ANY BOUNDARIES AND JUST EAST OR NORTHEAST OF THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
FOR SATURDAY...WITH GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
FOR DEEP MIXING...DECIDED TO BUMP HIGHS UP A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. IF CLOUD COVER AND/OR PCPN COVERAGE IS GREATER THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...THIS COULD NEGATIVELY AFFECT HIGHS.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD END SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND INSTABILITY DROPS OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY. AFTER THE EARLY MORNING THREAT OF STORMS SUNDAY...
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA...WE EXPECT THE REST OF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT TO BE DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH
RANGING TO MID 80S SOUTH. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY START TO RETURN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE SO ON MONDAY. SOME SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE MONDAY...BUT WITH A MUCH LOWER THREAT THAN FOR SATURDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL
AMPLIFY...BUT WITH LITTLE PROGRESSION THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL
PCPN CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED PDS PRETTY MUCH REVOLVING AROUND
BNDRY AND MOISTURE INTERACTION AS NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
ARE PROGGED TO MOVE THRU. BEGINNING MON NIGHT...WARMER FRONT/MID LYR
AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ASSOC WITH SFC LOW NEAR THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
WILL LIFT THRU THE CWA AND BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM ACTIVITY THRU THE
NIGHT. WITH AN OPEN GULF...QUITE GENEROUS LLVL MOISTURE ADV WILL
ENSURE A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE PER KI VALUES OF
40. IN ADDITION...GIVEN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR PCPN EFFICIENCY THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HVY RAINFALL WILL BE
HIGH. ON TUES CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE GETS DISPLACED EWD AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN. ALL THIS IN RESPONSE TO DEEP TROF DIGGING OVER THE
WRN CONUS.
LATE NEXT WEEK THEN...PATTERN BEGINS TO BECOME BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH MODELS SHOWING THE WRN CONUS TROF TAKING ON A NEG TILT AS IT
CROSSES THE ROCKIES. AS SFC LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING DPVA...MODELS PROG A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD
FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE NOTICEABLE
DIFFERENCES BTWN THE ECM AND GFS...HAVE DECIDED TO TRIMS POPS DOWN
JUST A BIT.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PICK UP LATER TONIGHT...LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL GUSTS AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL JET PROMPTED THE
INCLUSION OF WIND SHEAR AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND HIGHER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BY
MORNING COULD BRING A FEW TSTMS TO THE ERN NEBR REGION...BUT
COVERAGE/CHANCES APPEARED TOO LOW TO MENTION IN 06Z TAFS.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE FURTHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTN
AND THE TSTM THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT AND STRONG UPPER SYSTEM PUSH INTO THE AREA. ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAIN GREATLY REDUCING VSBYS...HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 KTS OR
MORE COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
EVENING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
439 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUD SKIES WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL TODAY. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEPENING MID/UPPER LVL
TROF ACRS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH RIBBON OF ENHANCED DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTING INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST RAP AND
HRRR SHOW ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH AND SOME UVVS ACRS OUR
CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA BTWN 12-15Z THIS MORNING...SO WL CONT TO
MENTION CHC POPS CENTRAL AND LIKELY EXTREME EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED BEHIND POTENT 5H
VORT ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY/WESTERN NY...BUT THIS WL LIFT NW OF OUR
CWA TODAY. SOUNDING SHOW PLENTY OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE ACRS OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH STEEP SFC TO 800MB LAPSE RATES AND SOME WEAK
CAPE WITH VALUES OF 50 TO 100 J/KG. THINKING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST WL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BEFORE SKIES CLOUD UP AND
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOP ACRS THE MTNS. LLVL CAA ON
NORTHWEST FLW WL DROP OUR PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C
TODAY...RESULTING IN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S MTNS TO L70S WARMER
VALLEYS. ADDITIONAL QPF WL BE LIGHT<0.10 AS PW VALUES FALL BELOW
0.50".
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE AMOUNT
OF CLRING TWD SUNDAY MORNING AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ON TEMPS.
BOTH NAM/GFS SHOWS CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS TRACKING ACRS
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER RH. HOWEVER...THE
COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE BLW 750MB AND UPSLOPE ON NW WINDS
WL CREATE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREENS. IN ADDITION...A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE THRU 03Z. TEMPS WITH GOOD MIXING
AND CLOUDS WL HOLD IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S WARMER VALLEYS.
ON SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ALONG
WITH 1022MB SFC HIGH PRES. THIS WL RESULT IN PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...WITH EXCEPTION OF A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS THE
MTNS. ALWAYS HAVE TO WATCH BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND LEFTOVER
MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS OF RAIN...IN FORMING ADDITIONAL
FAIR WX CLOUDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN BTWN 8-10C...BUT WITH MORE
SUN AND BETTER MIXING EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80F MOST
LOCATIONS. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE CONTS BUT 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 10-12C. EXPECT LLVL THERMAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLR SKIES. COLDEST READINGS WL BE IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF THE DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH LOWS IN THE M/U
30S TO M/U 40S WARMER VALLEYS AND MID SLOPE THERMAL BELT.
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE FLATTENS AS 5H VORT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850
TO 500MB MOISTURE MOVES ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 18Z-00Z. INITIALLY COLUMN
WL BE VERY DRY WITH PLACEMENT OF RIDGE...SO EXPECTING 1ST SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH VIRGA...BEFORE BETTER MOISTURE
ARRIVES BY 18Z ACRS THE SLV. NAM CONTS TO SHOW SFC DWPTS SURGING
INTO THE M/U 60S ON MONDAY AFTN...WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500
J/KG ACRS THE SLV. THIS MAYBE OVERDONE DUE TO THE WARM SFC
DWPTS...BUT EVEN THE GFS SHOWS SOME CAPE BTWN 800-1200 J/KG ON
MONDAY AFTN. BOTTOM LINE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE
MENTION...BUT BLW SEVERE LIMITS. 85H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY TWD EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT FRIDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ACROSS FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING. WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...MID-LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS WEAKER AND DRIER SOLUTION
OF GFS REGARDING THIS FEATURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY...
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE DRIER ECMWF WHICH MAINTAINS NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AROUND CUTOFF LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S...THEN COOL TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...
EXCEPT 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST.
PREVAILING CIGS IFR AT SLK/MPV TILL ABOUT 12Z AND MVFR AT REST OF
SITES...WITH VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS. SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY MOVES IN AND
WINDS TURN NORTHWEST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT SLK/MPV WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY
FOG 06-12Z SUNDAY AT SLK AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALL TAF LOCATIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN PCPN POSSIBLE. GENERALLY VFR TUE-WED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
406 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUD SKIES WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL TODAY. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEPENING MID/UPPER LVL
TROF ACRS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH RIBBON OF ENHANCED DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTING INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST RAP AND
HRRR SHOW ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH AND SOME UVVS ACRS OUR
CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA BTWN 12-15Z THIS MORNING...SO WL CONT TO
MENTION CHC POPS CENTRAL AND LIKELY EXTREME EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED BEHIND POTENT 5H
VORT ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY/WESTERN NY...BUT THIS WL LIFT NW OF OUR
CWA TODAY. SOUNDING SHOW PLENTY OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE ACRS OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH STEEP SFC TO 800MB LAPSE RATES AND SOME WEAK
CAPE WITH VALUES OF 50 TO 100 J/KG. THINKING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST WL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BEFORE SKIES CLOUD UP AND
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOP ACRS THE MTNS. LLVL CAA ON
NORTHWEST FLW WL DROP OUR PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C
TODAY...RESULTING IN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S MTNS TO L70S WARMER
VALLEYS. ADDITIONAL QPF WL BE LIGHT<0.10 AS PW VALUES FALL BELOW
0.50".
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE AMOUNT
OF CLRING TWD SUNDAY MORNING AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ON TEMPS.
BOTH NAM/GFS SHOWS CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS TRACKING ACRS
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER RH. HOWEVER...THE
COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE BLW 750MB AND UPSLOPE ON NW WINDS
WL CREATE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREENS. IN ADDITION...A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE THRU 03Z. TEMPS WITH GOOD MIXING
AND CLOUDS WL HOLD IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S WARMER VALLEYS.
ON SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ALONG
WITH 1022MB SFC HIGH PRES. THIS WL RESULT IN PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...WITH EXCEPTION OF A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS THE
MTNS. ALWAYS HAVE TO WATCH BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND LEFTOVER
MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS OF RAIN...IN FORMING ADDITIONAL
FAIR WX CLOUDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN BTWN 8-10C...BUT WITH MORE
SUN AND BETTER MIXING EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80F MOST
LOCATIONS. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE CONTS BUT 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 10-12C. EXPECT LLVL THERMAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLR SKIES. COLDEST READINGS WL BE IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF THE DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH LOWS IN THE M/U
30S TO M/U 40S WARMER VALLEYS AND MID SLOPE THERMAL BELT.
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE FLATTENS AS 5H VORT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850
TO 500MB MOISTURE MOVES ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 18Z-00Z. INITIALLY COLUMN
WL BE VERY DRY WITH PLACEMENT OF RIDGE...SO EXPECTING 1ST SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH VIRGA...BEFORE BETTER MOISTURE
ARRIVES BY 18Z ACRS THE SLV. NAM CONTS TO SHOW SFC DWPTS SURGING
INTO THE M/U 60S ON MONDAY AFTN...WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500
J/KG ACRS THE SLV. THIS MAYBE OVERDONE DUE TO THE WARM SFC
DWPTS...BUT EVEN THE GFS SHOWS SOME CAPE BTWN 800-1200 J/KG ON
MONDAY AFTN. BOTTOM LINE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE
MENTION...BUT BLW SEVERE LIMITS. 85H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY TWD EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT FRIDAY...A RELATIVELY QUIET FORECAST PERIOD SHAPING
UP FOR NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR MID-JUNE AND MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY LOW...AND SHOULD BE SHOWERY
IN CHARACTER.
SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE MONDAY WILL BRING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THRU MID-AFTERNOON...AND 850MB TEMPS OF +13C
(12Z ECMWF) TO +14C (12Z GFS) WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
80-84F RANGE. UPR RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE DAY IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC ASCENT AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
HAVE LEFT ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY EVIDENT IN MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS.
HOWEVER...POPS DO INCREASE TO 20-40 PERCENT 21Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY WITH BEST POTENTIAL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH...WITH TREND FOR CLEARING
TOWARD DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
55-62F...WITH LIMITED RADIATIONAL COOLING OWING TO CLOUD COVER.
ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...MID-LEVEL PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY
IN THE MID-UPR 50S...SO THE AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE.
CAN/T RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND GENERAL STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODELS HAVE SHOWN
CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY ON TIMING OF SHOWERS MID-LATE
WEEK...BUT OVERALL THE SIGNAL IS FOR RELATIVELY WEAK ACTIVITY.
THUS...HAVE GENERALLY DECREASED POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE (10-20
PERCENT) RANGE COMPARED TO CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR THE TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY IN THE
UPR 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
50S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST.
PREVAILING CIGS IFR AT SLK/MPV TILL ABOUT 12Z AND MVFR AT REST OF
SITES...WITH VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS. SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY MOVES IN AND
WINDS TURN NORTHWEST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT SLK/MPV WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY
FOG 06-12Z SUNDAY AT SLK AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALL TAF LOCATIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN PCPN POSSIBLE. GENERALLY VFR TUE-WED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
126 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY
WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM SAT...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOC WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF
HWY 17 WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS NOW FROM SOUTH OF OREGON INLET SW
ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND TO PAMLICO...SOUTHERN CRAVEN AND EASTERN
ONSLOW COUNTIES. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL AND HRRR PROGS
THE PRECIP WILL PUSH EAST OF THE OBX AROUND 09Z. BEHIND THIS AREA
OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION...ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS EXPECT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM EITHER WITH THE FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TRIAD
TO CLT AREA...PUSHING THROUGH LATE DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY
(1000J/KG OR LESS) AND INCREASING CIN. NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG
STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. TEMPS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S INLAND TO
MID 70S COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
AS OF 430 PM FRI...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF
CHANNELED VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST BY MIDDAY
WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW BEHIND THE FRONT. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN THE SEA- BREEZE MAY DEVELOP
AND PUSH INLAND WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S SAT UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM... LATEST MODEL RUNS SUPPORT PREVIOUS FCST TRENDS OF
DRY CONDITIONS FOR LATE SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SCT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY STILL PSBL SAT EVENING WITH FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND
LINGERING SEA BREEZE INTERACTION...THEN RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT
EXPECTED TO KEEP AREA RAIN-FREE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TUESDAY WITH RETURN TO BERMUDA
HIGH/INLAND TROF PATTERN FOR REST OF WEEK...WITH CORRESPONDING CLIMO
20/30 POPS DURING PERIOD. GFS INDICATES BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING IN
LATE THU BUT LEANED TO ECMWF AND WPC WITH FRONT APPROACHING
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHER POPS THAT AFTN.
WEAK COOLING BEHIND FRONT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN HEAT WILL RETURN REST OF PERIOD WITH
HIGHS INTO LOWER 90S FOR INLAND SECTIONS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SAT...THE LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS HAS PUSHED EAST
OF TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING AND ONLY EXPECT AN ISOLATE SHOWER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS WELL WITH FRONTAL FORCING MOVING IN LATE
BUT THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY STABLE IN THE POST
CONVECTIVE COLD POOL. MOS GUIDANCE AND NARRE ENSEMBLES INDICATING
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH DAYBREAK...AND
POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR...MAINLY AT OAJ. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING
NORTHERLY. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN RTES TODAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEABREEZE. EWN AND OAJ
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WITH PGV
LEAST LIKELY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SUB-VFR PSBL WITH SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER
SRN SECTIONS SAT EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
DIURNAL SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE PSBL AGAIN TUE-WED WITH LOCALIZED
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM FRI...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS
10-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3-5 FT BUT EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT TO AOB 15KT...WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY BY
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN WATERS TOWARD THE
END OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST AND
NORTHWEST SAT MORNING. WAVEWATCH/SWAN IN AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS
3-5 OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHIFT NE SAT 10-15 KT FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT...AND ENE AROUND 10 KT SOUTH. SEAS DIMINISH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS SAT AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN ELEVATED IN NE FLOW
FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS...2-4 FT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
PREVIOUS FCST DURING PERIOD...BUT DID INCREASE WINDS SLIGHTLY LATE
TUE AND TUE NIGHT AND INDICATING SW 15-20 KT FOR WED. COLD FRONT
STILL ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO N/NE 10 TO 15 KT. THE
GRADIENT WILL FURTHER RELAX OVER THE NC WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH NE FLOW VEERING TO SE/S BY MONDAY AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 3-4 FT
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT BY MONDAY. SW WINDS DEVELOP AND
INCREASE TUESDAY TO 10 TO 15 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE
AND A LOW PRESSURE TROF DEVELOPS INLAND...WITH WINDS INCREASING WED
WITH TIGHTER PRES GRAD. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT LATE WED.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
A TEMPORARY REPAIR HAS BEEN MADE TO THE KMHX RADAR. WE WILL
EVALUATE PERFORMANCE WITH THIS REPAIR IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL WORK WILL NEED TO BE DONE TO MAKE A PERMANENT REPAIR.
GIVEN AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED FRIDAY WE MAY DELAY TAKING
THE RADAR DOWN UNTIL THE WEEKEND TO WORK ON A MORE PERMANENT FIX.
IF THE RADAR BECOMES UNAVAILABLE...PLEASE USE ADJACENT RADARS IN
WILMINGTON (KLTX)...RALEIGH (KRAX)...AND WAKEFIELD VA (KAKQ).
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JBM/SK
MARINE...JBM/CQD/DAG
EQUIPMENT...DAG/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
204 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MOVING OUT OF THE
CWA...AND HAVE SCALED BACK ON POPS AND REMOVED SEVERE WORDING.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR WITH A RATHER
MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER CENTRAL ND IN PROXIMITY TO A LINGERING SFC TROUGH. FOR NOW
LEFT OUT TO SEE HOW SKY COVER TRENDS. WILL RELOOK FOR THE 3-4AM
FORECAST PACKAGE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE POPS AND ADD/MAINTAIN SEVERE WORDING
WEST AND CENTRAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
TRIMMED POPS BACK A BIT NORTHWEST WHERE SHORT RANGE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION EARLY
THIS EVENING. THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EARLY THIS EVENING
SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND CONVECTION
CHANCES. ALSO STRONG WINDS WITH CURRENT WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT.
REGARDING WIND ADVISORY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT ADVISORY. WESTERN
COUNTIES DROP OFF AT 4PM. SOUTH CENTRAL WILL REMAIN IN THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM.
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS AS FAR AS
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SO WILL UTILIZE A
BROAD BRUSHED APPROACH IN GENERAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT HIGHLIGHTING THE BETTER POTENTIAL IN THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL...IN ADDITION TO
THE ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LATEST HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
ONGOING CONVECTION AND ITS LATEST OUTPUT LOOKS REASONABLE WITH TWO
AREAS OF CONVECTION...ONE TRACKING FROM EAST CENTRAL MONTANA INTO
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND ANOTHER AREA OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...ALONG THE ND/SD/BORDER.
CURRENTLY...ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE OVER EASTERN
MONTANA NEAR THE LOCATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH. MU-CAPES ARE
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG OVER THE MONDAY REGION...WITH INCREASING LOW
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CAPPED ATMOSPHERE OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BUT NOT FAR INTO MONTANA...THE 18Z RUN OF THE RAP SHOWS THE
CAP BREAKING AROUND 21-22 UTC. CAP THEN BECOMES NEGLIGIBLE OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...OPENING THE DOOR TO POSSIBLE CONVECTION.
THE BEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR LOOKS TO BE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAX
INSOLATION AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH STRONG CAPES THIS
AREA IS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS. THUS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WITH SUCH STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND INCREASING HAIL CAPES...THE MAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE FARTHER WEST IN MONTANA/WYOMING MAY
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS WHICH MAY TRACK ALONG THE NORTH
DAKOTA SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES WILL RESIDE OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AND INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL WANE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHIFTS INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z SUNDAY.
JET SUPPORT WEAKENS AS WELL ALLOWING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO END
OVERNIGHT. WILL THEN AWAIT FOR THE MAIN UPPER LOW/COLD POCKET IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
TO NOSE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE
BEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR. HENCE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY SHOWER
MENTION WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSHOWERS EXTENDING FROM NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH FROM THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREAS.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY NIGHT...MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS DEVELOP LEADING TO A DRY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS 500MB PATTERN
FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND HAS NOW SHIFTED AWAY FROM A DEVELOPING RIDGE
AND IS IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM FROM PREVIOUS/CURRENT RUNS. THUS
CONFIDENCE GROWING WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DAILY AND INCREASING THROUGH FRIDAY. A PERSISTENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LOW UNFOLDS
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
HAZARDS TO AVIATION FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING
MAINLY INCLUDE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS DEVELOPING AS SKIES
PARTIALLY CLEAR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORED NEAR A SFC TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
347 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
THE HUMIDITY WILL BE BACK TODAY AFTER A BRIEF HIATUS YESTERDAY.
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DRAW MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
TODAY...AND THE HRRR EVEN SHOWS SOME ISOLD TSTORM POTENTIAL OVER
FAR SE OK THIS AFTERNOON SO SOME SMALL POPS WERE INSERTED DOWN
THERE. PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. STORMS WILL FORM AND
CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER KS...BUT SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE FAR NORTHERN OK AS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. SOME AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ON ITS TAIL END OVER THE
OZARKS DOWN INTO NE OK. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE AS THE BEST FLOW REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...HOWEVER
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BRING SOME SEVERE HAIL/WIND
POTENTIAL REGARDLESS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT STORMS REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE KS/MO BORDERS SUNDAY NIGHT.
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND WARMING MID LVL TEMPS WILL KEEP THINGS
DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE EURO AND CANADIAN STILL BRING AN UPPER
SYSTEM IN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY...WHILE ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK TO
BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR STORMS.
LACY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 88 73 88 72 / 10 30 30 40
FSM 87 71 90 71 / 10 10 20 10
MLC 86 72 89 73 / 10 10 10 10
BVO 89 71 87 70 / 10 40 40 50
FYV 83 66 86 67 / 10 10 30 20
BYV 83 66 86 67 / 10 10 30 30
MKO 86 70 88 70 / 10 20 30 20
MIO 86 70 86 70 / 10 40 40 50
F10 87 71 88 71 / 10 20 20 20
HHW 88 70 89 71 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM....30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1126 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
OVER SOUTH CENTRL SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS INDICATE A 60-70KT LOW
LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THAT AREA SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS THERE BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SHIFTING EAST WITH WINDS HOLDING OR
SLIGHTLY DECREASING THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1500 MDT.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. FIRST SHORT WAVE TROF HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE AREA CARRYING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH IT.
SECOND...SOMEWHAT STRONGER TROF IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS AFTN AND HELPING TO DIMINISH THE
STABILITY. A THIRD TROF WILL APPROACH TOMORROW GIVING CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FCST TO DVLP OVR SW SD IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL DVLPMNTS...AND THEN MOVE EAST WARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM SE MT ACROSS WRN SD...REPRESENTING A
WEAK WARM FRONT. THIS ZONE IS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONGER SFC TO 1 KM
SHEAR THAT COULD ENHANCE LOW LVL ROTATION IN SOME STORMS.
FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ADEQUATE CAPE AND SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR FOR
SVR STORMS THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. INVERTED V PROG SOUNDINGS
AND CONSISTENT MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL SUGGEST QUITE
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL FOR THE DVLPG CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND THIS
EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL HAS INITIATED CONVECTION AT ABOUT THE
RIGHT TIME AND HAS CONSISTENTLY INTENSIFIED THE STORMS QUICKLY
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN OVR OUR WYOMING COUNTIES AND MOVED THE
STORMS QUICKLY E WARD INTO WRN SD. IN SPITE OF POTENTIAL FOR LOW
LVL ROTATION IN STORMS...THE LCLS ARE HIGH...LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
TEMPERATURES WERE HELD CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS ON SATURDAY DUE TO POTENTIALLY WET GROUND. SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOULD SEE DRYING OVER THE AREA AND AN END TO PRECIP. KEPT SOME
POPS IN FOR SATURDAY DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE APPROACH OF WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROF.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 157 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A DRY DAY
ON SUNDAY. WILL BE BREEZY/WINDY AS A RESULT FROM TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR AVERAGE. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...AS GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF. THIS FEATURES UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DAILY
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SLOWER MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN
WARMER DAYS EARLY IN THE WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE FOR THE LAST HALF OF
THE WEEK IN MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...PATTERN STILL FAVORS
DAILY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...BARBER
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...10
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
224 AM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will prowl the region
every afternoon and evening through Tuesday with temperatures
remaining on the cool side. Temperatures will then warm for the
rest of the week, with just a few mountain showers.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Saturday through Sunday: The main precipitation threat today will
shift into far Ern WA and the ID Panhandle. Precipitation will be
tied to moisture wrapping around the backside of a departing low
pressure system and afternoon instability. The moisture on the
backside of the low pressure system also referred to as the trowal
over the last few days is becoming less organized with time as the
system fills and drifts away from the region. Needless to say,
there is enough moisture and weak isentropic present to generate
the stable precipitation processes. 2AM radar confirms this idea
with light echoes continuing to fill across much of Ern WA from
Colville to Spokane to Ritzville. The steadiest rainfall will
mainly be through midday then precipitation should become more
showery. Models hint at the potential for partial aftn clearing
across NE WA and this will keep a small threat for isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon. Instability is not very impressive
and any storms should be weak and shortlived. Temperatures will
begin to rebound across Central WA with 70`s returning to
locations like Omak and Wenatchee but remain cool and generally in
the 60`s for ID and far eastern reaches of WA.
The region will be in a transition period Saturday night and early
Sunday as one storm system departs to the east and second
approaches from the northwest. Some drying aloft should help break
the cloud cover which will assist in the development of fog across
the valleys of NE WA and Nrn ID. Overnight temperatures will dip
into the 40`s to lower 50`s.
On Sunday, the next low pressure system will approach and begin
sagging into northwestern WA. Flow will back to the southwest and
clouds will begin thickening over the ID Panhandle and Nrn WA.
Most locations across the Basin will experience warm and dry
conditions but cooler 500mb temperatures sagging into the northern
mountains will destabilizing the afternoon atmosphere promoting
isolated showers and thunderstorms through early evening. We will
also be monitoring afternoon instability across the higher terrain
of the Blue Mtns or Camas Prairie but this is less agreed upon
amongst the forecast models and confidence is lower. The greatest
24 hour change in temperatures will be in the ID Panhandle given
the precip cooled air mass in place on Saturday so most other
locations will experience similar readings from one day to the
next which remain several degrees below seasonal normals. /sb
Sunday night through Friday...Model agreement is reasonable
between the latest GFS and ECMWF generating high confidence
regarding the overall pattern in the later part of the short term
forecast and guarded confidence in the extended period.
Sunday night through Tuesday will witness the arrival and passage of
another upper level low pressure through the forecast area. This
evolution will promote more hit-and-miss shower activity
especially in the afternoon and evening hours Sunday evening and
again on Monday afternoon and evening and again on Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Densest concentration of showers and
isolated thunderstorms will be over the northern mountains and
Idaho Panhandle but instability will exist over most of the
forecast area especially on Tuesday. There are no indications of
any especially wet periods...but most locations will be subject
to a brief shower each day depending on the track of any vorticity
disturbances embedded in the transiting closed low field of
motion. this pattern also strongly argues for cooler than normal
temperatures.
By Wednesday and beyond the upper low slogs eastward and out of
the region to be replaced by a short wave ridge which should dry
things out and spur a warming trend back to seasonal normals by
the end of the work week...in fact...the approach of yet another
Gulf of Alaska closed upper low on or about Friday may stimulate
sustained southwest flow ahead of this feature leading to further
warming to slightly above average temperatures on the eve of the
first day of summer. /Fugazzi
&&
.AVIATION...
06z TAFS: A band of showers over southern BC will drop southeast
across Eastern Washington and North Idaho bringing an increase in
showers through 15z Saturday. As of 06z the boundary layer was
near saturation at KPUW with BKN007-015 CIGS. Low level winds
will advect this moisture directly into KCOE with KGEG/KSFF more
"on the edge" of this moisture push. Models show CIGS rising
between 14-18z Saturday. After 18z Saturday afternoon heating
will trigger another round of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms mainly north and east of the KGEG-KSFF-KCOE TAF
sites. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 68 48 66 44 65 46 / 50 20 30 20 30 30
Coeur d`Alene 65 47 64 44 64 44 / 70 20 40 30 30 30
Pullman 64 45 64 41 62 42 / 40 10 30 20 30 30
Lewiston 71 51 71 51 69 50 / 30 10 20 20 30 30
Colville 71 47 65 46 64 45 / 50 40 40 40 40 40
Sandpoint 63 47 64 48 63 42 / 70 30 40 40 50 50
Kellogg 60 46 62 45 61 43 / 80 30 40 50 40 40
Moses Lake 78 50 74 49 74 50 / 10 0 10 10 10 20
Wenatchee 75 55 71 52 71 54 / 10 0 10 10 20 20
Omak 78 48 70 47 71 49 / 10 10 30 30 30 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
224 AM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will prowl the region
every afternoon and evening through Tuesday with temperatures
remaining on the cool side. Temperatures will then warm for the
rest of the week, with just a few mountain showers.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Saturday through Sunday: The main precipitation threat today will
shift into far Ern WA and the ID Panhandle. Precipitation will be
tied to moisture wrapping around the backside of a departing low
pressure system and afternoon instability. The moisture on the
backside of the low pressure system also referred to as the trowal
over the last few days is becoming less organized with time as the
system fills and drifts away from the region. Needless to say,
there is enough moisture and weak isentropic present to generate
the stable precipitation processes. 2AM radar confirms this idea
with light echoes continuing to fill across much of Ern WA from
Colville to Spokane to Ritzville. The steadiest rainfall will
mainly be through midday then precipitation should become more
showery. Models hint at the potential for partial aftn clearing
across NE WA and this will keep a small threat for isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon. Instability is not very impressive
and any storms should be weak and shortlived. Temperatures will
begin to rebound across Central WA with 70`s returning to
locations like Omak and Wenatchee but remain cool and generally in
the 60`s for ID and far eastern reaches of WA.
The region will be in a transition period Saturday night and early
Sunday as one storm system departs to the east and second
approaches from the northwest. Some drying aloft should help break
the cloud cover which will assist in the development of fog across
the valleys of NE WA and Nrn ID. Overnight temperatures will dip
into the 40`s to lower 50`s.
On Sunday, the next low pressure system will approach and begin
sagging into northwestern WA. Flow will back to the southwest and
clouds will begin thickening over the ID Panhandle and Nrn WA.
Most locations across the Basin will experience warm and dry
conditions but cooler 500mb temperatures sagging into the northern
mountains will destabilizing the afternoon atmosphere promoting
isolated showers and thunderstorms through early evening. We will
also be monitoring afternoon instability across the higher terrain
of the Blue Mtns or Camas Prairie but this is less agreed upon
amongst the forecast models and confidence is lower. The greatest
24 hour change in temperatures will be in the ID Panhandle given
the precip cooled air mass in place on Saturday so most other
locations will experience similar readings from one day to the
next which remain several degrees below seasonal normals. /sb
Sunday night through Friday...Model agreement is reasonable
between the latest GFS and ECMWF generating high confidence
regarding the overall pattern in the later part of the short term
forecast and guarded confidence in the extended period.
Sunday night through Tuesday will witness the arrival and passage of
another upper level low pressure through the forecast area. This
evolution will promote more hit-and-miss shower activity
especially in the afternoon and evening hours Sunday evening and
again on Monday afternoon and evening and again on Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Densest concentration of showers and
isolated thunderstorms will be over the northern mountains and
Idaho Panhandle but instability will exist over most of the
forecast area especially on Tuesday. There are no indications of
any especially wet periods...but most locations will be subject
to a brief shower each day depending on the track of any vorticity
disturbances embedded in the transiting closed low field of
motion. this pattern also strongly argues for cooler than normal
temperatures.
By Wednesday and beyond the upper low slogs eastward and out of
the region to be replaced by a short wave ridge which should dry
things out and spur a warming trend back to seasonal normals by
the end of the work week...in fact...the approach of yet another
Gulf of Alaska closed upper low on or about Friday may stimulate
sustained southwest flow ahead of this feature leading to further
warming to slightly above average temperatures on the eve of the
first day of summer. /Fugazzi
&&
.AVIATION...
06z TAFS: A band of showers over southern BC will drop southeast
across Eastern Washington and North Idaho bringing an increase in
showers through 15z Saturday. As of 06z the boundary layer was
near saturation at KPUW with BKN007-015 CIGS. Low level winds
will advect this moisture directly into KCOE with KGEG/KSFF more
"on the edge" of this moisture push. Models show CIGS rising
between 14-18z Saturday. After 18z Saturday afternoon heating
will trigger another round of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms mainly north and east of the KGEG-KSFF-KCOE TAF
sites. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 68 48 66 44 65 46 / 50 20 30 20 30 30
Coeur d`Alene 65 47 64 44 64 44 / 70 20 40 30 30 30
Pullman 64 45 64 41 62 42 / 40 10 30 20 30 30
Lewiston 71 51 71 51 69 50 / 30 10 20 20 30 30
Colville 71 47 65 46 64 45 / 50 40 40 40 40 40
Sandpoint 63 47 64 48 63 42 / 70 30 40 40 50 50
Kellogg 60 46 62 45 61 43 / 80 30 40 50 40 40
Moses Lake 78 50 74 49 74 50 / 10 0 10 10 10 20
Wenatchee 75 55 71 52 71 54 / 10 0 10 10 20 20
Omak 78 48 70 47 71 49 / 10 10 30 30 30 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
224 AM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will prowl the region
every afternoon and evening through Tuesday with temperatures
remaining on the cool side. Temperatures will then warm for the
rest of the week, with just a few mountain showers.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Saturday through Sunday: The main precipitation threat today will
shift into far Ern WA and the ID Panhandle. Precipitation will be
tied to moisture wrapping around the backside of a departing low
pressure system and afternoon instability. The moisture on the
backside of the low pressure system also referred to as the trowal
over the last few days is becoming less organized with time as the
system fills and drifts away from the region. Needless to say,
there is enough moisture and weak isentropic present to generate
the stable precipitation processes. 2AM radar confirms this idea
with light echoes continuing to fill across much of Ern WA from
Colville to Spokane to Ritzville. The steadiest rainfall will
mainly be through midday then precipitation should become more
showery. Models hint at the potential for partial aftn clearing
across NE WA and this will keep a small threat for isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon. Instability is not very impressive
and any storms should be weak and shortlived. Temperatures will
begin to rebound across Central WA with 70`s returning to
locations like Omak and Wenatchee but remain cool and generally in
the 60`s for ID and far eastern reaches of WA.
The region will be in a transition period Saturday night and early
Sunday as one storm system departs to the east and second
approaches from the northwest. Some drying aloft should help break
the cloud cover which will assist in the development of fog across
the valleys of NE WA and Nrn ID. Overnight temperatures will dip
into the 40`s to lower 50`s.
On Sunday, the next low pressure system will approach and begin
sagging into northwestern WA. Flow will back to the southwest and
clouds will begin thickening over the ID Panhandle and Nrn WA.
Most locations across the Basin will experience warm and dry
conditions but cooler 500mb temperatures sagging into the northern
mountains will destabilizing the afternoon atmosphere promoting
isolated showers and thunderstorms through early evening. We will
also be monitoring afternoon instability across the higher terrain
of the Blue Mtns or Camas Prairie but this is less agreed upon
amongst the forecast models and confidence is lower. The greatest
24 hour change in temperatures will be in the ID Panhandle given
the precip cooled air mass in place on Saturday so most other
locations will experience similar readings from one day to the
next which remain several degrees below seasonal normals. /sb
Sunday night through Friday...Model agreement is reasonable
between the latest GFS and ECMWF generating high confidence
regarding the overall pattern in the later part of the short term
forecast and guarded confidence in the extended period.
Sunday night through Tuesday will witness the arrival and passage of
another upper level low pressure through the forecast area. This
evolution will promote more hit-and-miss shower activity
especially in the afternoon and evening hours Sunday evening and
again on Monday afternoon and evening and again on Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Densest concentration of showers and
isolated thunderstorms will be over the northern mountains and
Idaho Panhandle but instability will exist over most of the
forecast area especially on Tuesday. There are no indications of
any especially wet periods...but most locations will be subject
to a brief shower each day depending on the track of any vorticity
disturbances embedded in the transiting closed low field of
motion. this pattern also strongly argues for cooler than normal
temperatures.
By Wednesday and beyond the upper low slogs eastward and out of
the region to be replaced by a short wave ridge which should dry
things out and spur a warming trend back to seasonal normals by
the end of the work week...in fact...the approach of yet another
Gulf of Alaska closed upper low on or about Friday may stimulate
sustained southwest flow ahead of this feature leading to further
warming to slightly above average temperatures on the eve of the
first day of summer. /Fugazzi
&&
.AVIATION...
06z TAFS: A band of showers over southern BC will drop southeast
across Eastern Washington and North Idaho bringing an increase in
showers through 15z Saturday. As of 06z the boundary layer was
near saturation at KPUW with BKN007-015 CIGS. Low level winds
will advect this moisture directly into KCOE with KGEG/KSFF more
"on the edge" of this moisture push. Models show CIGS rising
between 14-18z Saturday. After 18z Saturday afternoon heating
will trigger another round of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms mainly north and east of the KGEG-KSFF-KCOE TAF
sites. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 68 48 66 44 65 46 / 50 20 30 20 30 30
Coeur d`Alene 65 47 64 44 64 44 / 70 20 40 30 30 30
Pullman 64 45 64 41 62 42 / 40 10 30 20 30 30
Lewiston 71 51 71 51 69 50 / 30 10 20 20 30 30
Colville 71 47 65 46 64 45 / 50 40 40 40 40 40
Sandpoint 63 47 64 48 63 42 / 70 30 40 40 50 50
Kellogg 60 46 62 45 61 43 / 80 30 40 50 40 40
Moses Lake 78 50 74 49 74 50 / 10 0 10 10 10 20
Wenatchee 75 55 71 52 71 54 / 10 0 10 10 20 20
Omak 78 48 70 47 71 49 / 10 10 30 30 30 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
224 AM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will prowl the region
every afternoon and evening through Tuesday with temperatures
remaining on the cool side. Temperatures will then warm for the
rest of the week, with just a few mountain showers.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Saturday through Sunday: The main precipitation threat today will
shift into far Ern WA and the ID Panhandle. Precipitation will be
tied to moisture wrapping around the backside of a departing low
pressure system and afternoon instability. The moisture on the
backside of the low pressure system also referred to as the trowal
over the last few days is becoming less organized with time as the
system fills and drifts away from the region. Needless to say,
there is enough moisture and weak isentropic present to generate
the stable precipitation processes. 2AM radar confirms this idea
with light echoes continuing to fill across much of Ern WA from
Colville to Spokane to Ritzville. The steadiest rainfall will
mainly be through midday then precipitation should become more
showery. Models hint at the potential for partial aftn clearing
across NE WA and this will keep a small threat for isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon. Instability is not very impressive
and any storms should be weak and shortlived. Temperatures will
begin to rebound across Central WA with 70`s returning to
locations like Omak and Wenatchee but remain cool and generally in
the 60`s for ID and far eastern reaches of WA.
The region will be in a transition period Saturday night and early
Sunday as one storm system departs to the east and second
approaches from the northwest. Some drying aloft should help break
the cloud cover which will assist in the development of fog across
the valleys of NE WA and Nrn ID. Overnight temperatures will dip
into the 40`s to lower 50`s.
On Sunday, the next low pressure system will approach and begin
sagging into northwestern WA. Flow will back to the southwest and
clouds will begin thickening over the ID Panhandle and Nrn WA.
Most locations across the Basin will experience warm and dry
conditions but cooler 500mb temperatures sagging into the northern
mountains will destabilizing the afternoon atmosphere promoting
isolated showers and thunderstorms through early evening. We will
also be monitoring afternoon instability across the higher terrain
of the Blue Mtns or Camas Prairie but this is less agreed upon
amongst the forecast models and confidence is lower. The greatest
24 hour change in temperatures will be in the ID Panhandle given
the precip cooled air mass in place on Saturday so most other
locations will experience similar readings from one day to the
next which remain several degrees below seasonal normals. /sb
Sunday night through Friday...Model agreement is reasonable
between the latest GFS and ECMWF generating high confidence
regarding the overall pattern in the later part of the short term
forecast and guarded confidence in the extended period.
Sunday night through Tuesday will witness the arrival and passage of
another upper level low pressure through the forecast area. This
evolution will promote more hit-and-miss shower activity
especially in the afternoon and evening hours Sunday evening and
again on Monday afternoon and evening and again on Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Densest concentration of showers and
isolated thunderstorms will be over the northern mountains and
Idaho Panhandle but instability will exist over most of the
forecast area especially on Tuesday. There are no indications of
any especially wet periods...but most locations will be subject
to a brief shower each day depending on the track of any vorticity
disturbances embedded in the transiting closed low field of
motion. this pattern also strongly argues for cooler than normal
temperatures.
By Wednesday and beyond the upper low slogs eastward and out of
the region to be replaced by a short wave ridge which should dry
things out and spur a warming trend back to seasonal normals by
the end of the work week...in fact...the approach of yet another
Gulf of Alaska closed upper low on or about Friday may stimulate
sustained southwest flow ahead of this feature leading to further
warming to slightly above average temperatures on the eve of the
first day of summer. /Fugazzi
&&
.AVIATION...
06z TAFS: A band of showers over southern BC will drop southeast
across Eastern Washington and North Idaho bringing an increase in
showers through 15z Saturday. As of 06z the boundary layer was
near saturation at KPUW with BKN007-015 CIGS. Low level winds
will advect this moisture directly into KCOE with KGEG/KSFF more
"on the edge" of this moisture push. Models show CIGS rising
between 14-18z Saturday. After 18z Saturday afternoon heating
will trigger another round of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms mainly north and east of the KGEG-KSFF-KCOE TAF
sites. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 68 48 66 44 65 46 / 50 20 30 20 30 30
Coeur d`Alene 65 47 64 44 64 44 / 70 20 40 30 30 30
Pullman 64 45 64 41 62 42 / 40 10 30 20 30 30
Lewiston 71 51 71 51 69 50 / 30 10 20 20 30 30
Colville 71 47 65 46 64 45 / 50 40 40 40 40 40
Sandpoint 63 47 64 48 63 42 / 70 30 40 40 50 50
Kellogg 60 46 62 45 61 43 / 80 30 40 50 40 40
Moses Lake 78 50 74 49 74 50 / 10 0 10 10 10 20
Wenatchee 75 55 71 52 71 54 / 10 0 10 10 20 20
Omak 78 48 70 47 71 49 / 10 10 30 30 30 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1035 PM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Showery weather will continue through Tuesday with temperatures
remaining on the cool side. Temperatures will then warm for the
rest of the week, with just a few mountain showers.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: Satellite imagery this evening shows a closed low near
Missoula, MT. Instability associated with this low combined with
low level upslope flow will continue to produce showers for the
Central Panhandle Mountains, Palouse, Lewiston area, and Camas
Prairie this evening with models showing this activity to persist
overnight as moisture continues to wrap around the back side of
the low. One area of showers seen on Canadian/US Radar composites
shows a broad area of showers near Kelowna and Penticton BC
dropping south and thus should see an increase in showers for
Oroville, Omak, and Republic areas this evening. The HRRR is
picking up on this well and shows this activity gradually dropping
southeast into the Upper Columbia Basin, Northeast Washington
Mountains, North Idaho Panhandle, Spokane/Coeur D`Alene area, and
Upper Columbia Basin overnight. Thus have kept higher POPs in the
forecast mainly east of a line from Omak to Ritzville but have
tried to fine tune the timing in the grids based on the
progression of these bands of showers. JW
&&
.AVIATION...
06z TAFS: A band of showers over southern BC will drop southeast
across Eastern Washington and North Idaho bringing an increase in
showers through 15z Saturday. As of 06z the boundary layer was
near saturation at KPUW with BKN007-015 CIGS. Low level winds
will advect this moisture directly into KCOE with KGEG/KSFF more
"on the edge" of this moisture push. Models show CIGS rising
between 14-18z Saturday. After 18z Saturday afternoon heating
will trigger another round of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms mainly north and east of the KGEG-KSFF-KCOE TAF
sites. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 49 69 48 67 44 66 / 60 30 20 30 30 20
Coeur d`Alene 47 66 47 65 44 66 / 70 40 20 40 30 30
Pullman 45 66 45 65 41 64 / 50 30 10 30 20 30
Lewiston 51 74 51 72 51 70 / 50 30 10 20 20 30
Colville 47 70 47 66 46 66 / 60 50 40 40 60 30
Sandpoint 46 64 47 65 48 66 / 70 50 30 40 40 40
Kellogg 46 60 46 63 45 64 / 70 80 30 40 30 40
Moses Lake 51 79 50 76 49 75 / 30 10 0 10 10 10
Wenatchee 52 77 55 75 52 74 / 10 10 0 10 10 20
Omak 50 79 48 73 47 73 / 60 10 10 30 30 30
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1140 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 831 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
MAIN FOCUS THIS EVENING IS WITH WHETHER TO ADD ANY SPRINKLES TO
THE FORECAST AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS
LED TO SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
THESE RETURNS ARE COMING FROM A 10KFT DECK...BUT A FEW OBS HAVE
ACTUALLY REPORTED SOME -RA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS IT
CONTINUES TO WORK EAST...EXPECT THAT IT WILL FALL APART OR AT
LEAST NOT STRENGTHEN/BECOME WIDESPREAD. SO...WILL KEEP IT OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING. TOMORROW STILL IS LOOKING LIKE A
VERY WINDY DAY WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH
RANGE. MAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME IN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
AT 3 PM...A 1018 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI.
THIS HIGH HAS KEPT THE AREA MAINLY CLEAR TODAY. FURTHER
WEST...MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. SOME OF THE
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS CONVECTION IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...MORE AND MORE OF THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL SEE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY. BOTH THE ARW AND HRRR TRY TO
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THESE MODELS ARE ALREADY OVER DOING THE DEW
POINTS...SO THEY HAVE FAR TOO MUCH CAPE. AS A RESULT...KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY LIKE THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW.
ON SATURDAY...THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
TOWARD THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHEAST IOWA...AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS WILL LIKELY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE 0-3 KM SHEAR WOULD BE
FAVORABLE TO DAMAGING WINDS...THE ML CAPES /LESS THAN 250 J/KG/
WILL MAKE IT VERY UNLIKELY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT...THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
VEERS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES AND WARM
CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS AROUND 3.5 KM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAIN.
ON SUNDAY...THE 13.00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE
NAM/WRF CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THIS WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE
MORNING. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THAT IT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AREAS WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THE MORNING AND THROUGH
WESTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING DIFFERENCE
ALLOWS MORE 0-3 KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE TO BUILD AHEAD OF THIS SHORT
WAVE. THE NAM HAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG. MEANWHILE THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES RANGING FROM 300 TO 1200 J/KG.
WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS...THIS OPENS UP A SMALL
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SUPERCELLS COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE SHORT WAVE. IF THEY DID HAPPEN TO DEVELOP...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS HAS THIS FRONT MOVING AS FAR NORTH AS
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF HAS THIS FRONT ONLY
GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. 1 TO 2K 0-3 KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPES DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY AND SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND MODERATE TO STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A MESCOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN IOWA...AND THE CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD
LAYER DEPTHS AROUND 4 KM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN. IN ADDITION...WITH 0-3 KM SHEAR GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE 0-1
KM SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT WOULD BE EVEN FAVORABLE OF THE
POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALONG THE WARM FRONT. IN THE WARM
SECTOR...THE CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END AS AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS BROUGHT IN ISENTROPICALLY INTO
THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THIS CAP BETWEEN 900 AND 650 MB
WILL ALLOW MOST UNSTABLE CAPES TO CLIMB INTO THE 3 TO 6K J/JG
ON TUESDAY.
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH OF
THESE DIFFERENCES START TO SHOW UP ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL
DEVELOP ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT NEAR OR
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE GFS HAS A STRONGER SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND THIS KEEPS THE AREA IN WARM SECTOR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A STRONG
ENOUGH COLD POOL IN THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT THIS
FRONT GETS PUSHED SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA AND IT REMAINS WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE IN BOTH
SCENARIOS...THE FRONT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONTAL POSITION WILL GREATLY
AFFECT HOW WARM WE WILL GET DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DUE TO
THIS...JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR AS
THEY MOVE THROUGH WITH RST MORE LIKELY TO SEE THEM THAN LSE. WINDS
WILL PICK UP QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS REACHING THE 25
TO 35KT RANGE AT TIMES. RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH SOME POTENTIAL DROPS
TO MVFR/IFR WITH THESE SHOWERS/STORMS. THE TIMING OF CONVECTION
GETTING IN IS A LITTLE IN QUESTION AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
IT WILL GET IN LATE IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BUT FALL APART
AS IT GETS INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MAIN
TIMING WHICH APPEARS TO BE IN THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1104 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
MOST OF THE EVENING CONVECTION IS WEAKENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A STORM EXITING EAST OUT OF MORRILL COUNTY NE WITH SMALL POPS LEFT
IN PLACE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FASTER MIDLEVEL FLOW WHERE CONVECTION IS MORE
LIKELY TO BE DYNAMICALLY GENERATED OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WERE RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE NEBRASKA ZONES AND MADE SOME SLIGHT
ADJUSTEMENTS ON HOURLY TEMPS BUT STILL THINK OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE IN
THE BALLPARK. LATEST HRRR HIGHER RES MODEL RUN SHOWING STRATUS
FORMING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TOWARD MORNING. THIS IS NOT BEING PICKED UP BY THE GFS OR THE NAM
AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW HAVE NOT ADDED THIS INTO THE FORECAST BUT
SOMETHING THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH. WITH WINDS GOING
MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN THE FORECAST AND IN THE MODEL DATA...STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IN THE EAST DOESNT APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN DOWNSLOPE
NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. 02/GARMON
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. THIS BOUNDARY IS ACTING LIKE A WARM FRONT AND A
DRYLINE WITH THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHWARD TOWARDS A SURFACE
LOW JUST NORTH OF CASPER. WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE 20S AND LOW 30S...WITH DEWPOINTS STILL WELL INTO
THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS HAVE FORMED
ACROSS CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW. BELIEVE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TORRINGTON AND ALLIANCE
AREAS...BUT NOT NEAR THE I80 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING DUE TO
CONSIDERABLE WARMING ALOFT. NOT CONFIDENCE THAT THE NORTHERN ZONES
WILL SEE ANY SEVERE WEATHER AS RADAR RETURNS ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME...BUT THAT MAY CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. KEPT MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
03Z THIS EVENING.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
WYOMING TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...MODELS INDICATE A 90-100 KT JET MAX
MOVING EASTWARD AND THEN STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING. KEPT A
DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EVEN TSTORMS NORTH OF I80 FROM
RAWLINS TO DOUGLAS...BELIEVE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER
SUNSET ACROSS CNTRL WYOMING AS THE JET INCREASES IN STRENGTH AND
SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING. THIS GENERAL AREA WILL
MOVE EASTWARD SLOWLY ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND WILL
LIKELY BE THE AREA TO FOCUS ON FOR SATURDAY CONVECTION WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE MORE NUMEROUS THAN TODAY.
MODELS SHOW THE PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY...WHICH SETS UP A TRICKY WEEKEND FORECAST FOR EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND. MOS GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS A 15 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. THIS MAKES SENSE DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
GFS AND GEM ARE GENERALLY WARMER WITH A SLOWER FROPA...WHILE THE
NAM AND ECMWF ARE MUCH FASTER. CONTINUED TRENDING THE FORECAST
TOWARDS THE FASTER AND COOLER SOLUTION WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60S TO MID 70S...AND MAYBE AROUND 80 AT SIDNEY WHICH WILL BE THE
LAST AREA TO EXPERIENCE FROPA. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASED POP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 40 TO 55
PERCENT...MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE EASTWARD INTO
MOST OF THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE LOCATION. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH A FEW MODELS SHOWING
QPF VALUES OVER 1 INCH ALONG I80 WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER THROUGH MID SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE AND BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE DRY HOWEVER...SO OVERALL A PLEASANT DAY
WITH POP BELOW 10 PERCENT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIMILARITIES WITH DIGGING AN UPPER LOW
INTO THE PAC NW AND ROCKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS THEN OCCURRING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS
THE STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATES OVER THE PAC NW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...ENERGETIC SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...
HOWEVER IT WILL BE A RATHER DRY FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL FAVOR
CONTINUED WAA BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC AS WELL...SO COMBINATION
LACK OF MOISTURE AND WARMING ALOFT WILL REDUCE CONVECTIVE
POSSIBILITIES QUITE A BIT. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED-T ALONG AND EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF TIME
FOR MODELS TO CHANGE...BUT FAVORING AN OVERALL DRY...WARM...AND
BREEZY SOLUTION FOR MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OUT WEST ON
TUESDAY AND WILL AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CWA VERY WARM...AND STILL WITHIN THE DRY
AIRMASS. AGAIN COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT FOCUSED IN THE NORTHERN ZONES WHERE MORE
MOIST SSE SFC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST OVER THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIVERGE
QUITE A BIT AS TO HOW THE LOW WILL ACTUALLY EVOLVE. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO EJECT THE ENERGY NORTHWARD INTO CANADA...WHILE THE GFS
MOVES IT OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BOTH SOLUTIONS
FAVOR A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE DRIER IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVERHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
SOME CONCERN WITH WIDESPREAD IFR DEVELOPING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR FORECAST SHOWING IFR
BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AFTER 09Z. FIND THIS HARD
TO FOLLOW AS WINDS STAY WESTERLY. SO...WENT MVFR FOR OUR PANHANDLE
AIRPORTS. MID SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY. FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL SEE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FOR OUR PANHANDLE
AIRPORTS AND MAYBE HERE AT KCYS AND KLAR. STILL TOO FAR OUT FOR
EXACT TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THE STRATUS MOVES IN
TONIGHT. SO KEPT VCTS WORDING IN TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
DRY CONDITIONS WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 15 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH...ESPECIALLY OVER CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. HUMIDITIES WILL
BE MUCH HIGHER ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WHERE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...MUCH HIGHER DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014
RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. STILL SOME HEALTHY SNOW PACK IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...SO A RAPID WARM UP COULD
RELEASE THIS WATER FOR FUTURE RISES IN RIVERS. IN ADDITION...WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR A POTENTIAL RAINFALL EVENT DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GARMON
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RJM/TJT
HYDROLOGY...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
419 AM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...
UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL SWING THROUGH COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON SPREADING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ACROSS ALL
OF THE DISTRICT. THIS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY AREA WITH CRITICAL FUELS (THOSE RECEPTIVE
TO RAPID RATES OF FIRE SPREAD) ACCORDING TO LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES
IS ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY...AND RED FLAG WARNING HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. AS FAR AS WEATHER CONDITIONS GO...WINDS WILL
GUST UP TO 40 TO NEAR 50 MPH IN SOME PLACES AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT AND EVEN BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS AS THE DRY LINE MOVES EASTWARD INTO KANSAS. ON THE BROADER
SCALE...WITH THE GREEN UP/SNOW MELT/AND RECENT RAINFALL FUELS ARE
NOT AS DANGEROUSLY RECEPTIVE TO FIRE. REGARDLESS...THIS IS NOT THE
DAY FOR ANY OUTDOOR BURNING...ESPECIALLY IF FUELS ARE LOCALLY DRY IN
YOUR AREA. CERTAINLY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BEGIN THE DRYING
PROCESS.
HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SOME BLOWING DUST IN THE GRIDS FOR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND THE I-25 CORRIDOR OF PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND WESTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTIES. BROUGHT THE BLOWING DUST INTO CROWLEY AND OTERO
COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ITS
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW DRY THE GROUND IS AND LOOSE THE SOIL MAY
BE...SO KEPT BLOWING DUST CONFINED TO AREAS MOST PRONE TO IT AND
WHERE PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS INDICATES THAT
THERE AS BEEN THE MINIMAL RAINFALL.
AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE FOR DRY LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CHAFFEE/LAKE
COUNTIES...AND SAGUACHE COUNTY. MODELS KEEP MOISTURE VERY HIGH
BASED...AND RAP13 AND GFS ARE MUCH DRIER WITH THE SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAN NAM12 WHICH IS
OFTEN OVERLY OPTIMISTIC. HIGH RES HRRR CONCURS WITH THE DRIER MODEL
RUNS. PIKES PEAK AREA AND KIOWA COUNTY COULD SEE A DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKE AS WELL...HOWEVER COLD FRONT SHOULD COME BARRELING IN AROUND
00Z AND HUMIDITIES SHOULD INCREASE PRETTY QUICKLY. HAVE MAINTAINED
ISOLATED POPS FOR THESE AREAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY 06Z. LOCAL 4KM WRF SUGGESTS WINDS COULD GUST
CLOSE TO 50 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS CROWLEY...OTERO...
KIOWA...BENT...AND PROWERS COUNTIES BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM AS THE
FRONT RACES THROUGH.
HAVE MAINTAINED SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN BORDER
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING WITH SOME FORCING FROM THE FRONT...BUT
NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC THAT MUCH WILL OCCUR. -KT
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
ON SUN...COOLER AIR WILL COVER MOST OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH/FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY
WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS DEVELOP ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
A RETURN TO HOT..DRY AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY CONDITIONS APPEARS
LIKELY MON/TUE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH
LATEST MODELS KEEP HIGHER DEWPOINTS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BORDER. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION BOTH DAYS...AND WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE FUEL
CONDITIONS MON AS PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT/DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO FUELS DRYING OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SLIGHTLY DRIER
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAIN ZONES. WESTERN UPPER LOW EJECTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WED NIGHT...THEN INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA BY THU MORNING...WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING SOUTH THU/FRI.
PRECIP CHANCES FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOK FAIRLY LOW AS
AGAIN LOW LEVEL FLOW KEEPS A WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH FRI WITH
ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME HINTS IN THE MODEL DATA OF BETTER LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN BEGINNING NEXT WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES AND
WEAKENS...THOUGH STILL SEVERAL FORECAST ITERATIONS TO GO BEFORE
ONE CAN HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN A PATTERN CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS SPREADING INTO THE KCOS...KALS...AND KPUB TERMINALS BY 18Z.
COULD SEE GUSTS TO 35-40 KTS IN AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KPUB AND
KALS. KALS COULD SEE SOME MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLOWING
DUST. TOUGHER CALL FOR KPUB AS MORE RAIN HAS FALLEN EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SO WILL LEAVE BLDU OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...HITTING THE KCOS TERMINAL BETWEEN 00Z- 01Z...AND THE
PUB TERMINAL BETWEEN 01Z AND 02Z. A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS AFTER 02Z. THERE
IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE FOR A HIGH BASED -TSRA IN VICINITY OF KCOS
DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. HOWEVER
PROBABILITY LOOKS TO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT THIS
POINT. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ226-227.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
858 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND MOVES OFFSHORE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT THE AREA
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT WILL
EXIT THIS MORNING.
SKIES WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR THAN EARLIER THOUGHT WITH
MOISTURE IN THE 800-900 HPA LAYER (SEE CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER N.
JERSEY).
LATEST RAP RUNS SUGGEST WE DONE FULLY BREAK OUT UNTIL MID AFTN.
HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80...WARMEST AROUND THE NYC
METRO.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND CONTINUED SE SWELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OFF THE NE COAST LATE THIS EVENING
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
OFFSHORE LATE MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...MOVING OFFSHORE ON MON. A
WEAK COLD FRONT AND/OR TROF APPROACHES LATE MON. TRENDS OVER THE
LAST 24H SUGGEST A STRONGER UPPER RIDGE WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVING A
TOUGH TIME MOVING INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT/TUE.
HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MOST
INLAND LOCATIONS RISING WELL INTO THE 80S ON MON...AND EVEN
COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BE AROUND 80. LOWS IN THE 50S SUN MORNING
WILL RISE BY SEVERAL DEGREES MON MORNING...WITH THE LOWER TO MID
50S INLAND...AND THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT THE COAST. NEARLY
SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS ON SAT WILL RISE TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY MON.
EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN AS WELL WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS WITH A LEAD
MID LEVEL IMPULSE LATE MON NIGHT...THEN BETTER CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION TUE AND ESPECIALLY WED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL SINK TO THE SOUTH ON THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH...BUT STILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
AND SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POP. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE FRONT
WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON FRI WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS...OR KEEP PUSHING TO THE SOUTH WHICH INDICATES LESS
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT.
ABOVE AVG TEMPS EARLY THIS WEEK SHOULD RETURN CLOSER TO AVG THU-
FRI AFTER COLD FROPA.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY WITH A GUST NW SFC FLOW.
IN AND OUT OF 2500` CIGS UNTIL MID MORNING THAT LIFTS TO VFR 3500`
CIGS INTO THE EARLY AFTN. ALL CIGS SCATTER OUT FOR THE MID AFTN.
NW SFC WINDS GUSTING 20-25KT THIS AFTN UNTIL EARLY EVENING.
FOR THE NY METRO DIRECTION WILL FAVOR JUST RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC
TODAY. HOWEVER, KJFK MAY BACK JUST LEFT OF 310 LATE THIS
AFTN FOR THE INTL DEPARTURE BANK. MORE ON THAT WITH NEXT UPDATE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUN-MON...VFR.
.TUE-WED...SCT AFTN TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
NW WINDS PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING...AND THERE COULD BE
OCCASIONAL NEAR SHORE GUSTS TO 25 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THINKING IS THAT THE COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY OF SUCH GUSTS ARE NOT
ENOUGH TO PUT UP A SCA FOR THIS. WINDS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK ALONG WITH
A LACK OF BUILDING SEA SWELL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA NEXT WEEK...NEITHER
OF WHICH AT THIS TIME POSES A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THREAT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WHILE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES COMBINED WITH A SE SWELL TO PRODUCE
WATER LEVELS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS
AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS LAST NIGHT...A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND
DIMINISHING SWELL TODAY MAKE THIS SCENARIO LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR
AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...WHICH IS THE HIGHER OF THE TWO
HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JC/TONGUE
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
948 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. A PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL
BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MODELS KEEP A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE PLUS STRONG HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS BUT EXPECT LITTLE COVERAGE BECAUSE OF SHALLOW
MOISTURE AND UPPER RIDGING. THE SPC WRF AND THE HRRR BOTH DISPLAY
MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD FALL APART SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BEING DRY. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING CONTINUING. CONVERGENCE
INTO THIS TROUGH PLUS STRONG HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WITH UPPER RIDGING AND JUST SHALLOW MOISTURE
EXPECT LITTLE COVERAGE. THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 20
PERCENT OR LESS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW UPPER RIDGING CONTINUING WITH SOME
WEAKENING TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS
DISPLAY LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE
PATTERN SUPPORTS WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS PLUS GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORT POPS OF 20
TO 30 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHER VALUES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH. MOST AREAS CLEAR...WITH SOME
MID-LEVEL CU POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD RETURN TO
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. AS FOR ANY CONVECTION...EXPECT MAINLY
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. COVERAGE
LIMITED SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN ANY TAFS. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING...THEN
POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY MAY CAUSE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
744 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TODAY AND DISSIPATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EAST TODAY WHILE THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT HAS REMAINED ACROSS SC/GA BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEAST. MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY AS A RESULT. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SC DURING THE DAYTIME...
POSSIBLY REACHING OUR FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW DEEP WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES RATHER WEAK FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
90 DEGREES TODAY. INCREASING SURFACE TEMPS INLAND AND THE
WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A SEA BREEZE BEGINNING TO
PUSH INLAND BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
NORMALLY THE COMBINATION OF AN EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
AND APPROXIMATELY 2000 JOULES OF CAPE WOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER THE MODERATE TO
STRONG NVA WILL CREATE SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WHICH COULD
STIFLE ANY INITIAL UPDRAFTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW 500 MB TEMPS
WARMING SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY SO THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE GETTING
LESS CONDUCIVE TO ROBUST UPDRAFTS. SOME OF THE NORMALLY WET
GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY DRY TODAY. FOR EXAMPLE THE NAM AND THE
ECMWF ARE PRETTY CONSERVATIVE WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE
DAY. WITH REGARD TO HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS...THE NSSL WRF WHICH
HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL DURING THE LAST WEEK...SHOWS
MINIMAL COVERAGE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THE RUC-13 AND HRRR BOTH SHOW SOME ACTIVITY IGNITING ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THE FIRST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED BUT IT WILL BE ISOLATED. THE
SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY COME INTO PLAY AT SOME POINT...PERHAPS
AFTER 2 PM OR SO. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...PERHAPS AS SOME FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONT
DROPS IN FROM THE NW AND COLLIDES WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WE BUMPED
POPS DOWN A BIT TODAY...SHOWING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE FARTHER INLAND.
ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY WANE AFTER
SUNSET. OVERNIGHT WE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS 69-74.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING EARLY IN THE EVENING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG/SEVERE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN
PLACE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH HIGHS AROUND 90 AND FALL INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 AT NIGHT AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT
SHIFTS SOUTH INTO FLORIDA IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE...
EXPANSIVE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ALOFT. HAVE LIMITED ANY MENTION OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO MAINLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND INLAND PARTS OF
FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND DEPARTING/WEAKENING FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER 90S INLAND WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 AWAY FROM THE COAST.
TUESDAY...STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL WITH EXPANSIVE RIDGING
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN
THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...EXPECT A
RAIN-FREE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
ATLANTIC HIGH WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND FROM THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN SOME LATE IN THE WEEK
IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED INLAND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE COAST. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
12Z SUNDAY. THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND.
LATER IN THE DAY A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA...POTENTIALLY MAINTAINING SOME ACTIVITY
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MAINTAINED VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS WITH CB
CLOUDS AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADD PREVAILING OR TEMPO
THUNDERSTORMS IF TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE
DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SMALL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...
MAINLY A SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2 TO
3 FT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BUMP WINDS UP CLOSE TO 15 KT
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBO OF SOME ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS THAT ARE
INCREASING THE DAILY TIDAL RANGE AND MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW DURING
THE AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE A MARGINAL MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS AT THE SC BEACHES TODAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A FRONT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY ON
SUNDAY THEN DISSIPATE AS IT DROPS SOUTH ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. THE FLOW WILL THEN BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MINOR NOCTURNAL SURGES ARE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANY NIGHT...BUT WILL BE MORE LIKELY BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED.
OVERALL...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN
2-3 FT. THUS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...JRL/JAQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
905 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAKE A VERY SLOW RETURN TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
545 AM UPDATE: THE OVRRNG SHIELD OF STEADY RNFL HAS MSLY MOVED
NE OF THE FA ERLY THIS MORN...LEAVING PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION WITH SCT LGT SHWRS ACROSS THE N. HRRR HRLY MODEL
SIM RADAR RED SHOWS THE COLD FRONTAL BAND OF SHWRS MOVG INTO WRN
PTNS OF THE FA BY ERLY AFTN AND CROSSING INTO ERN PTNS OF THE
REGION DURG THE MID TO LATE AFTN HRS WITH ANOTHER TENTH TO TWO
TENTHS OF ADDITIONAL RNFL. POPS...WHICH WERE RAMPED DOWN MORE TO
CHC CAT FOR THIS MORN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA...ARE RAMPED BACK UP
TO CATEGORICAL LVLS BY AFTN BASED ON THE HRRR SIM RADAR OUTPUT.
THE SRN END OF THE SHWRS COULD FORM INTO A DEFORMATION RN BAND
THAT COULD LINGER INTO THE EVE HRS OVR SE ME AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTS TO CLOSE OFF OVR THE GULF OF ME. NO CHGS NEEDED TO FCST HRLY
TEMPS INTO THE MIDDAY HRS BASED ON A CLOSE MATCH OF OBSVD VS FCST
HRLY TEMPS AT 5 AND 6 AM.
ORGNL DISC: THE MAIN SHIELD OF OVRRNG RNFL AHEAD OF THE 925-850MB
WARM FRONT WILL END SW TO NE ACROSS THE ERN HLF OF THE FA OVR THE
NEXT FEW HRS. AFT A BREAK OF A FEW HRS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SHWRS... OTHER SHWRS WILL MOVE E FROM QB...OR FORM OVR THE REGION
BY AFTN AS A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM
QB PROV. DUE TO THE SLOWNESS OF THE FRONT...SHWRS/RN WILL NOT HAVE
COMPLETELY EXIT THE FA TNGT...WITH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
RUNS BOTH INDICATING THE FORMATION OF AN UPPER LOW OVR THE GULF OF
ME NOT SHOWN A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO FOR THIS PD...WHICH WILL SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE BACK EDGE OF SHWRS/RNFL SPCLY OVR THE SE PTN OF THE
FA UNTIL SUN.
HI TEMPS THIS AFTN WERE LOWERED ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEG F FROM THE LAST
FCST UPDATE DUE TO MORE XPCTD SHWR AND CLD CVRG. THIS LOWERS THE
POTENTIAL OF THUNDER ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE IT FOR THE AFTN/EVE HRS
AS WE DID IN YSTDY`S UPDATE ATTM. DUE TO CLD CVR HOLDING ON ACROSS
THE REGION...XCPT FOR THE FAR W...OVRNGT LOW TEMPS WILL NOT HAVE
THE OPPORTUNITY TO FALL AS MUCH AS EARLIER THOUGHT...SPCLY WHEN
COMBINED WITH A FRESHENING N BREEZE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
9 AM UDPATE...ONLY A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA ALTHOUGH DRIZZLE CONTINUES IN MANY PLACES. LINE OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH EASTERN AREAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING SO LOWERED PRECIP CHANCE
DURING THE DAY TODAY TO GO ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE.
FOR SUNDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EASTWARD AND BRING CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF/GFS WAS USED. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
PERSISTING FROM NORTHEASTERN MAINE TOWARDS BANGOR AND ALL POINTS
EASTWARD IN THE MORNING. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN COULD
FALL. THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. PARTIAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WILL
SLOWLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER AND COOL
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 60S WITH A FEW LOW
70S BY MID AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS
COUNTIES. GOOD MIXING BY MID AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH. CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE LOW 40S IN THE
ALLAGASH. MID TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS MONDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
HUMIDITY. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...CIRRUS MAY
THICKEN UP AT TIMES AND LIMIT SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS MUCH WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. THIS
FRONT WILL SERVE TO INCREASE HUMIDITY ON TUESDAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS AROUND THE 80F MARK FOR MOST PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE COAST WHERE AN ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS.
A COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT. THE ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIME OF FRONTAL FORCING WILL DEFINITELY PLAY A ROLE. THE
FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 60F. STORMS WILL
RE FIRE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH THE ACTION OCCURRING FURTHER
SOUTH AND REACHING BANGOR IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTRODUCE A GENERALLY COOL REGIME WITH LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
LOWS WILL DIP TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY IFR XPCTD ACROSS THE TAF SITES TDY IN LOW CLDNSS
AND REDUCED VSBY IN MORN PATCHY FOG AND/OR OCNL SHWRS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS MOST TAF SITES TONIGHT...WITH DOWNEAST
SITES POSSIBLY BECOMING LOW VFR LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUN AM NORTH OF HUL...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
TUES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FOR BGR AND BHB.
CAR...PQI AND FVE COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS TUE EVENING. ALL SITES
MAY HAVE IFR CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 545 AM UPDATE...WE DROPPED THE SCA FOR THE INNER HARBOR/
BAY MZ052 AND CONVERTED THE GENERIC SCA FOR THE OUTER MZS050-051 TO
AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS AS PER THE PREV DISC BASED ON THE LATEST BUOY
DOWNWARD TREND OF WINDS.
ORGNL DISC...WILL CONT WITH SCA FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS TIL THE
NEXT UPDATE AT ARND 6 AM...THEN PLAN ON DROPPING INNER BAY/HARBOR
MZ052 AND CONVERTING THE SCA FOR THE OUTER MZS050-051 PLANNED TO
GO OUT TIL LATE AFTN TO AN SCA FOR HZRDS SEAS WITH WINDS NO LONGER
XPCTD TO REACH SCA THRESHOLDS. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND WV HTS
WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY TONIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF RAW
MODEL AND MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR WINDS AND WW3 FCST WV HTS
DIMINISHED BY ABOUT 25 PERCENT TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE SEASONAL
HI BIAS OF SFC- BL INPUT WINDS.
SHORT TERM:
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN BY LATER
TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH WEDS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN/MCB
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
607 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAKE A VERY SLOW RETURN TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
545 AM UPDATE: THE OVRRNG SHIELD OF STEADY RNFL HAS MSLY MOVED
NE OF THE FA ERLY THIS MORN...LEAVING PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION WITH SCT LGT SHWRS ACROSS THE N. HRRR HRLY MODEL
SIM RADAR RED SHOWS THE COLD FRONTAL BAND OF SHWRS MOVG INTO WRN
PTNS OF THE FA BY ERLY AFTN AND CROSSING INTO ERN PTNS OF THE
REGION DURG THE MID TO LATE AFTN HRS WITH ANOTHER TENTH TO TWO
TENTHS OF ADDITIONAL RNFL. POPS...WHICH WERE RAMPED DOWN MORE TO
CHC CAT FOR THIS MORN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA...ARE RAMPED BACK UP
TO CATEGORICAL LVLS BY AFTN BASED ON THE HRRR SIM RADAR OUTPUT.
THE SRN END OF THE SHWRS COULD FORM INTO A DEFORMATION RN BAND
THAT COULD LINGER INTO THE EVE HRS OVR SE ME AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTS TO CLOSE OFF OVR THE GULF OF ME. NO CHGS NEEDED TO FCST HRLY
TEMPS INTO THE MIDDAY HRS BASED ON A CLOSE MATCH OF OBSVD VS FCST
HRLY TEMPS AT 5 AND 6 AM.
ORGNL DISC: THE MAIN SHIELD OF OVRRNG RNFL AHEAD OF THE 925-850MB
WARM FRONT WILL END SW TO NE ACROSS THE ERN HLF OF THE FA OVR THE
NEXT FEW HRS. AFT A BREAK OF A FEW HRS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SHWRS... OTHER SHWRS WILL MOVE E FROM QB...OR FORM OVR THE REGION
BY AFTN AS A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM
QB PROV. DUE TO THE SLOWNESS OF THE FRONT...SHWRS/RN WILL NOT HAVE
COMPLETELY EXIT THE FA TNGT...WITH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL
RUNS BOTH INDICATING THE FORMATION OF AN UPPER LOW OVR THE GULF OF
ME NOT SHOWN A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO FOR THIS PD...WHICH WILL SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE BACK EDGE OF SHWRS/RNFL SPCLY OVR THE SE PTN OF THE
FA UNTIL SUN.
HI TEMPS THIS AFTN WERE LOWERED ANOTHER 2 TO 3 DEG F FROM THE LAST
FCST UPDATE DUE TO MORE XPCTD SHWR AND CLD CVRG. THIS LOWERS THE
POTENTIAL OF THUNDER ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE IT FOR THE AFTN/EVE HRS
AS WE DID IN YSTDY`S UPDATE ATTM. DUE TO CLD CVR HOLDING ON ACROSS
THE REGION...XCPT FOR THE FAR W...OVRNGT LOW TEMPS WILL NOT HAVE
THE OPPORTUNITY TO FALL AS MUCH AS EARLIER THOUGHT...SPCLY WHEN
COMBINED WITH A FRESHENING N BREEZE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER TNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EASTWARD AND BRING CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF/GFS WAS USED. THIS MEANS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
PERSISTING FROM NORTHEASTERN MAINE TOWARDS BANGOR AND ALL POINTS
EASTWARD IN THE MORNING. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN COULD
FALL. THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. PARTIAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WILL
SLOWLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD COVER AND COOL
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 60S WITH A FEW LOW
70S BY MID AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS
COUNTIES. GOOD MIXING BY MID AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH. CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE LOW 40S IN THE
ALLAGASH. MID TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS MONDAY WITH HIGHS RECOVERING TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
HUMIDITY. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...CIRRUS MAY
THICKEN UP AT TIMES AND LIMIT SUNSHINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS MUCH WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. THIS
FRONT WILL SERVE TO INCREASE HUMIDITY ON TUESDAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS AROUND THE 80F MARK FOR MOST PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE COAST WHERE AN ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS.
A COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT. THE ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIME OF FRONTAL FORCING WILL DEFINITELY PLAY A ROLE. THE
FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 60F. STORMS WILL
RE FIRE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH THE ACTION OCCURRING FURTHER
SOUTH AND REACHING BANGOR IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTRODUCE A GENERALLY COOL REGIME WITH LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
LOWS WILL DIP TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY IFR XPCTD ACROSS THE TAF SITES TDY IN LOW CLDNSS
AND REDUCED VSBY IN MORN PATCHY FOG AND/OR OCNL SHWRS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS MOST TAF SITES TONIGHT...WITH DOWNEAST
SITES POSSIBLY BECOMING LOW VFR LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SUN AM NORTH OF HUL...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
TUES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT FOR BGR AND BHB.
CAR...PQI AND FVE COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS TUE EVENING. ALL SITES
MAY HAVE IFR CONDITIONS TUES NIGHT AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 545 AM UPDATE...WE DROPPED THE SCA FOR THE INNER HARBOR/
BAY MZ052 AND CONVERTED THE GENERIC SCA FOR THE OUTER MZS050-051 TO
AN SCA FOR HAZ SEAS AS PER THE PREV DISC BASED ON THE LATEST BUOY
DOWNWARD TREND OF WINDS.
ORGNL DISC...WILL CONT WITH SCA FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS TIL THE
NEXT UPDATE AT ARND 6 AM...THEN PLAN ON DROPPING INNER BAY/HARBOR
MZ052 AND CONVERTING THE SCA FOR THE OUTER MZS050-051 PLANNED TO
GO OUT TIL LATE AFTN TO AN SCA FOR HZRDS SEAS WITH WINDS NO LONGER
XPCTD TO REACH SCA THRESHOLDS. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND WV HTS
WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY TONIGHT. WE USED A BLEND OF RAW
MODEL AND MODEL MOS GUIDANCE FOR WINDS AND WW3 FCST WV HTS
DIMINISHED BY ABOUT 25 PERCENT TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE SEASONAL
HI BIAS OF SFC- BL INPUT WINDS.
SHORT TERM:
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN BY LATER
TUESDAY AND LAST THROUGH WEDS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
701 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
ONE THING IS FOR SURE...THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A VERY
COLORFUL ONE ON THE MPX RADAR. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT THIS PERIOD...THOUGH
THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER THROWN INTO THE MIX
AS WELL...THOUGH AT THE MOMENT...WE FEEL THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
IS THE GREATER OF THE TWO THREATS IN THE MPX CWA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING UP THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS A CLOSED LOW AT H5 NEAR
THE MT/ALB/SASK BORDER...WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES NOTED FROM NV/ID
INTO THE DAKOTAS IN THE SW FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGE. OF ALL OF THESE
WAVES...THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL /AS MEASURED BY POTENTIAL VORT/ IS THE
ONE BACK OVER NV/ID AND IT IS THE ONE THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS NEB THIS EVENING AS IT
REACHES THE CO PLAINS BY 00Z AND EVENTUALLY ENDS UP NEAR LA CROSSE
BY 12Z SUN.
AT THE SFC...THIS WRN UPPER TROUGH HAS A FAIRLY BROAD LEE SIDE
TROUGH IN PLACE THIS MORNING FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS DOWN THROUGH WRN
NEB...THOUGH WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE THE CONSOLIDATION OF THIS
TROUGH INTO A SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW OVER ERN CO. AT THE MOMENT THERE
IS REALLY NO WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT...JUST A PLUME OF MID 50 AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS DOWN INTO
CENTRAL TX. AS THIS PERIOD UNFOLDS...THIS SFC TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WHILE THE COLORADO SFC LOW SLOWLY
DEEPENS ACROSS ERN CO...BEFORE BEING EJECTED NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH
THE MAIN UPPER WAVE...EVENTUALLY REACHING CENTRAL MN BY 12Z SUN.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD...WE HAVE SEEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY
STRUGGLE TO WORK EAST ACROSS MN...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN CONVECTION
DIMINISHING AS IT REACHES MN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES AND THE SFC TROUGH WORKS INTO THE DAKOTAS...WE WILL SEE
THAT AXIS OF INSTABILITY BEND INTO MN. ACCOMPANYING THIS INSTABILITY
WILL BE AN H85 LLJ ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS THAT WILL BE SETTING UP
CAMP OVER THE MPX AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING/NIGHT
ACROSS THE MPX CWA...WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
THE HI-RES CAMS CERTAINLY PAINT THIS PICTURE OCCURRING...WITH SOME
PRETTY HEFTY QPFS RESULTING. STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL SET UP...BUT MOST RECENT CAM
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND HOPWRF ARE PAINTING QUITE A BIT
OF ACTIVITY TO AREAS SOUTH OF A TWIN CITIES TO MONTEVIDEO LINE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHICH WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
DRIVING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN TRACKING ALONG I-90 IN SODAK
OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT...AS THE NV/ID WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 60 AND 70 KTS
/THATS NOT A TYPO!/...WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING A FAIRLY HEALTHY
MCS TRACKING ALONG ROUGHLY AN OMAHA TO LA CROSSE/EAU CLAIRE LINE
OVERNIGHT.
FOR FLASH FLOODING...DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A WATCH NOW...AS
CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO ISSUE ONE AT THE MOMENT. A GOOD EXAMPLE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMES
WITH THE 3Z HOPWRF. MEMBERS 1 AND 4 SHOWED 2-3" OF RUN TOTAL QPF
AROUND MCLEOD COUNTY...WHILE MEMBERS 2 AND 3 HAVE LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH THE SAME AREA. THE SPREAD SEEN IN THE HI-RES MODELS HAS
KEPT US FROM ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT. AS OF
WRITING THIS THOUGH...THE GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING LOOKS TO
BE FROM SW/SC MN UP INTO EC MN/WRN WI WHERE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TO THE NORTH END OF THE EXPECTED OMAHA TO EAU
CLAIRE MCS.
ON THE SEVERE END OF THINGS...SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER UP INTO SW MN...THOUGH AM NOT OVERLY EXCITED IN THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL AT THE MOMENT. THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR LOOKS TO BE
THAT THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH FORCING UP THIS DIRECTION DURING THE
SHORT TERM...WHICH WILL KEEP INSTABILITY FROM BUILDING UP TOO MUCH
BEFORE IT IS QUICKLY RELEASED IN ONE OF SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL BE IN THE SW MN...WHICH WILL HAVE AN
OCCLUDED/WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY BY 00Z...SO THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL TO HAVE STORMS GET A BIT UNRULY...THOUGH WOULD BE MUCH
MORE CONCERNED WITH SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER INTO MN IF
THINGS WERE COMING IN ABOUT 6-12 HOURS FASTER THAN THEY ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON DEEPENING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS MN. A COLD FRONT
TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP THROUGH EASTERN AREAS OF MN IN
THE MORNING AND ACROSS WESTERN WI EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
DEPENDING ON THE OUTCOME OF THE CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND HOW
MUCH HEATING CAN OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT... THERE REMAINS A
THREAT FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WI EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. IF THE
STORMS DO DEVELOP...THERE IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS STRONG
SHEAR REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG WITH A GROWING AXIS OF CAPE FORECAST.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE FA SHOULD BE DRY ALONG WITH RATHER BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY REMAIN THE ONLY QUIET/DRY PERIODS IN THE
LONGER TERM AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE FA. THE
BALANCE OF THE LONGER TERM SURE LOOKS WET AND STORMY AS A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY IN
THE WEEK AND THEN BEGINS MOVING SLOWLY EAST...REACHING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE H5 HEIGHTS ARE TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
THERE ARE TWO PROBLEMS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. ONE WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM REPEATED ROUNDS OF CONVECTION DAY AFTER DAY AS
PIECES OF ENERGY EMANATE FROM THE UPPER LOW AND SPILL INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL COME BACK OUR WAY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT AND THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WI
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEXT WEEK
FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE ACROSS OUR
AREA WITH POCKETS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES. THERE IS SPREAD ON THE
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE GFS OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MN WITH THE ECMWF OVER SOUTHERN MN AND IA. WHAT IS
IMPORTANT IS THE SIGNAL FROM THE MODELS ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT WITH A SURFACE FRONT SITTING ON US FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
IF THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN MATERIALIZES NEXT WEEK...ON TOP OF THE RAIN
WE ARE EXPECTING TODAY AND SUNDAY...WILL RESULT IN MAIN STEM RIVERS
RISING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH FLOODING BECOMING A WIDESPREAD ISSUE.
THE SECOND CONCERN NEXT WEEK WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER. AT THIS
POINT...LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK BAD AS THE FRONT BEGINS
LIFTING BACK NORTH INTO MN/WI AS A WARM FRONT. SPC ALREADY HAS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3 COVERING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MN AND THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A VERY ACTIVE WEEK...IN MORE WAYS THEN ONE...IS
COMING OUR WAY. STAY TUNED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS IMPACTING THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERABLY
LOWER FOR TIMING OF WHEN SAID ROUNDS WILL HIT. CURRENTLY EXPECTING
AT LEAST 3 R0UNDS OF STORMS...WHAT YOU SEE THIS MORNING THAT WILL
BE SLOWLY WORKING INTO ERN MN FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ROUND 2 SHOULD GET GOING ALONG A FRONT IN THE ERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WORK ACROSS THE MPX TERMINALS THIS
EVENING...WITH A FINAL ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED TO COME OUT OF
THE OMAHA AREA AND HEAD FOR WRN WI LATE TONIGHT. FOR TIMING THIS
ACTIVITY...USED A BLEND OF THE MPXWRF AND HRRR...THOUGH WENT A
COUPLE OF HOURS FASTER THAN WHAT EITHER ONE OF THOSE MODELS HAS
BEEN SHOWING AS THEY HAVE BEEN SLOW IN BRINGING ACTIVITY IN
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MAINLY VFR UNTIL TONIGHT...WHEN
IFR/MVFR CONDS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. CONFIDENCE HIGH IN THE WIND FORECAST UNTIL TONIGHT
WHEN MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON HOW WINDS WILL SHIFT AS A SFC LOW
MOVES INTO MN.
KMSP...LOOKING FOR 3 ROUNDS OF STORMS AT MSP. DRY AIR AND UPPER
RIDGING TO THE EAST HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESS OF RAIN TO THE WEST
THIS MORNING...THOUGH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REACH THE FIELD BETWEEN
16Z AND 18Z. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION
AFTER 22Z BEFORE ANOTHER ROBUST AREA OF TSRA MOVES IN AFTER
00Z...THOUGH THERE MAY BE VERY LITTLE IF ANY BREAK BETWEEN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY AND THE EVENING ACTIVITY. THERE MAY BE
ONE FINAL ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA WITH THE FROPA SUN MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER WITH HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE THAT
FAR OUT. NOT EXPECTING ANY SUSTAINED MVFR OR LOWER CIGS UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. KEPT CIG FORECAST
CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW SUNDAY MORNING...BUT IFR CONDS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE TO START SUNDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...BECOMING VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G20KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR TSRA MON NITE. WINDS S 10 TO 15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
654 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
MEAN CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
WITH A LEAD PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
HAD H50 20-30 METER HEIGHT FALLS. H85 MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ONTO THE PLAINS WITH LOWER/MID TEENS FEEDING INTO
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL SD SOUTHWARD INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS COMBO OF WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR AN ISOLATED MOSTLY NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY ALONG/NORTH OF I80...THAT CONTINUES
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY BY 18Z.
OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS TODAY AS WELL.
AHEAD OF IT...INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A
WINDY/WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT WE COULD
MEET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 BY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THUS WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE
AREAS.
MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-
UPPER 60S BY AFTERNOON AS WELL. MID LEVEL H70 TEMPS OF +12 TO +14
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE EAST...WHICH WILL
LIKELY EFFECTIVELY CAP MOST OF THE ARE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST CONVECTION INDEED BREAKS OUT WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS WAY OVERDONE.
BELIEVE BEST SCENARIO FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA WILL BE VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER 21Z ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AND
FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...SIMILAR TO
LATEST RAP MODEL AND 4KM WRF DEPICTIONS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL
JET BEGINS TO RESTRENGTHEN. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WITHIN
AN AREA OF STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS EARLY ON. PW VALUES ALSO INCREASE TO JUST OVER 2
INCHES DURING THIS TIME...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I80. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A
WINDOW FOR A TORNADO THREAT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION
SPECIALLY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING AS 0-1KM SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40KT. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPC HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND HAVE VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEVERE STORMS
WILL DEVELOP...FIRST IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SPREADING EAST/SOUTHEAST TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING. GIVEN NUMEROUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ACROSS THE REGION...
IT`S ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE OF THE WEATHER LATER TODAY.
WHILE THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER LINGERING ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE LAST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE PLEASANT WITH WESTERLY DRYING WINDS
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER DEVELOPING WAVE
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS TO THE AREA BY MONDAY. GIVEN
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES...THE REGION IS UNDER ANOTHER
SLIGHT RISK FROM THE SPC FOR DAY 3.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
HEALTHY CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE AREA...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR SEVERE RISK. THIS WAVE SHOULD PUSH NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA
BY 12Z TUESDAY. IT DOES GET HOT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS HEADING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...AND IT GETS FAIRLY MUGGY WITH
DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S AND MAYBE EVEN LOWER 70S. WILL
CONTINUE DRY TREND INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER
WAVE MOVE INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING STORMS BACK TO
THE FORECAST. USED MODEL BLENDED DATA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
SOME STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED NORTH OF KOFK AND OTHERS SOUTH
OF KLNK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH
STORMS LIKELY...SOME SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE
TO THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE THIS MORNING...DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE
12Z TAF AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE RADAR FOR INCLUSION. BEGIN TO
INCLUDE PROB30/PREVAILING TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WITH DETERIORATING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END BETWEEN 06Z-10Z. INCLUDED SOME WIND GUSTS WITH THE STORMS
AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR HAIL AND HIGHER WINDS AS THE
SITUATION UNFOLDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY TO 20 TO 28KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 30 TO
35KTS. HAVE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTIONED ESPECIALLY BEFORE
16Z. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...THE SURFACE WINDS WILL SETTLE
DOWN OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS AND SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AT
10 TO 15KT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ051>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR IAZ069-079-080-090-091.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
748 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUD SKIES WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL TODAY. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 711 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATE FCST TO SHARPEN POP GRADIENT
FROM SCHC ACRS THE DACKS TO LIKELY OR HIGHER CPV AND POINTS EAST
THRU 15Z TODAY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP THIS
AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK SFC HEATING INTERACTING WITH
LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL QPF WL BE<0.10". ALSO...HAVE TRIED
TO CAPTURE BRIEF CLRING IN VIS SATL PICS ACRS THE SLV THIS MORNING
IN THE GRIDS. THINKING THIS WL QUICKLY FILL IN BY THIS AFTN WITH
SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY PRODUCING A STRATO CUMULUS CLOUD DECK. TEMPS
WL STRUGGLE IN THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW L70S POSSIBLE IN
THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND WARMER UHI OF THE CPV.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEPENING MID/UPPER LVL
TROF ACRS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH RIBBON OF ENHANCED DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTING INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST RAP AND
HRRR SHOW ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH AND SOME UVVS ACRS OUR
CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA BTWN 12-15Z THIS MORNING...SO WL CONT TO
MENTION CHC POPS CENTRAL AND LIKELY EXTREME EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED BEHIND POTENT 5H
VORT ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY/WESTERN NY...BUT THIS WL LIFT NW OF OUR
CWA TODAY. SOUNDING SHOW PLENTY OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE ACRS OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH STEEP SFC TO 800MB LAPSE RATES AND SOME WEAK
CAPE WITH VALUES OF 50 TO 100 J/KG. THINKING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST WL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BEFORE SKIES CLOUD UP AND
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOP ACRS THE MTNS. LLVL CAA ON
NORTHWEST FLW WL DROP OUR PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C
TODAY...RESULTING IN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S MTNS TO L70S WARMER
VALLEYS. ADDITIONAL QPF WL BE LIGHT<0.10 AS PW VALUES FALL BELOW
0.50".
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE AMOUNT
OF CLRING TWD SUNDAY MORNING AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ON TEMPS.
BOTH NAM/GFS SHOWS CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS TRACKING ACRS
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER RH. HOWEVER...THE
COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE BLW 750MB AND UPSLOPE ON NW WINDS
WL CREATE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREENS. IN ADDITION...A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE THRU 03Z. TEMPS WITH GOOD MIXING
AND CLOUDS WL HOLD IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S WARMER VALLEYS.
ON SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ALONG
WITH 1022MB SFC HIGH PRES. THIS WL RESULT IN PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...WITH EXCEPTION OF A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS THE
MTNS. ALWAYS HAVE TO WATCH BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND LEFTOVER
MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS OF RAIN...IN FORMING ADDITIONAL
FAIR WX CLOUDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN BTWN 8-10C...BUT WITH MORE
SUN AND BETTER MIXING EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80F MOST
LOCATIONS. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE CONTS BUT 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 10-12C. EXPECT LLVL THERMAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLR SKIES. COLDEST READINGS WL BE IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF THE DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH LOWS IN THE M/U
30S TO M/U 40S WARMER VALLEYS AND MID SLOPE THERMAL BELT.
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE FLATTENS AS 5H VORT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850
TO 500MB MOISTURE MOVES ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 18Z-00Z. INITIALLY COLUMN
WL BE VERY DRY WITH PLACEMENT OF RIDGE...SO EXPECTING 1ST SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH VIRGA...BEFORE BETTER MOISTURE
ARRIVES BY 18Z ACRS THE SLV. NAM CONTS TO SHOW SFC DWPTS SURGING
INTO THE M/U 60S ON MONDAY AFTN...WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500
J/KG ACRS THE SLV. THIS MAYBE OVERDONE DUE TO THE WARM SFC
DWPTS...BUT EVEN THE GFS SHOWS SOME CAPE BTWN 800-1200 J/KG ON
MONDAY AFTN. BOTTOM LINE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE
MENTION...BUT BLW SEVERE LIMITS. 85H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY TWD EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT FRIDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ACROSS FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING. WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...MID-LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS WEAKER AND DRIER SOLUTION
OF GFS REGARDING THIS FEATURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY...
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE DRIER ECMWF WHICH MAINTAINS NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AROUND CUTOFF LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S...THEN COOL TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...
EXCEPT 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AWAY
FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF VERMONT.
AREA OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 16Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL RESULT
IN MORE CLOUDS...EXCEPT SOME CLEARING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.
SITES THAT SEE CLEARING MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS TODAY WEST-NORTHWEST
10-15 KTS...DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND VARIABE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT EXCEPT PATCHY FOG WITH A PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE ALL TAF LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WIND
CONDITIONS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
PCPN POSSIBLE. GENERALLY VFR TUE-WED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
716 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN VERMONT THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUD SKIES WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL TODAY. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 711 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPDATE FCST TO SHARPEN POP GRADIENT
FROM SCHC ACRS THE DACKS TO LIKELY OR HIGHER CPV AND POINTS EAST
THRU 15Z TODAY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WL REDEVELOP THIS
AFTN ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND WEAK SFC HEATING INTERACTING WITH
LEFTOVER BL MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL QPF WL BE<0.10". ALSO...HAVE TRIED
TO CAPTURE BRIEF CLRING IN VIS SATL PICS ACRS THE SLV THIS MORNING
IN THE GRIDS. THINKING THIS WL QUICKLY FILL IN BY THIS AFTN WITH
SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY PRODUCING A STRATO CUMULUS CLOUD DECK. TEMPS
WL STRUGGLE IN THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW L70S POSSIBLE IN
THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND WARMER UHI OF THE CPV.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEPENING MID/UPPER LVL
TROF ACRS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH RIBBON OF ENHANCED DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTING INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST RAP AND
HRRR SHOW ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH AND SOME UVVS ACRS OUR
CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA BTWN 12-15Z THIS MORNING...SO WL CONT TO
MENTION CHC POPS CENTRAL AND LIKELY EXTREME EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED BEHIND POTENT 5H
VORT ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY/WESTERN NY...BUT THIS WL LIFT NW OF OUR
CWA TODAY. SOUNDING SHOW PLENTY OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE ACRS OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH STEEP SFC TO 800MB LAPSE RATES AND SOME WEAK
CAPE WITH VALUES OF 50 TO 100 J/KG. THINKING A FEW BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST WL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BEFORE SKIES CLOUD UP AND
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOP ACRS THE MTNS. LLVL CAA ON
NORTHWEST FLW WL DROP OUR PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C
TODAY...RESULTING IN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S MTNS TO L70S WARMER
VALLEYS. ADDITIONAL QPF WL BE LIGHT<0.10 AS PW VALUES FALL BELOW
0.50".
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SATURDAY...FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WL BE AMOUNT
OF CLRING TWD SUNDAY MORNING AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ON TEMPS.
BOTH NAM/GFS SHOWS CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS TRACKING ACRS
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER RH. HOWEVER...THE
COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER MOISTURE BLW 750MB AND UPSLOPE ON NW WINDS
WL CREATE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN
DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREENS. IN ADDITION...A FEW SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE THRU 03Z. TEMPS WITH GOOD MIXING
AND CLOUDS WL HOLD IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S WARMER VALLEYS.
ON SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ALONG
WITH 1022MB SFC HIGH PRES. THIS WL RESULT IN PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...WITH EXCEPTION OF A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS THE
MTNS. ALWAYS HAVE TO WATCH BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND LEFTOVER
MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS OF RAIN...IN FORMING ADDITIONAL
FAIR WX CLOUDS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS REMAIN BTWN 8-10C...BUT WITH MORE
SUN AND BETTER MIXING EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80F MOST
LOCATIONS. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE CONTS BUT 85H
TEMPS WARM BTWN 10-12C. EXPECT LLVL THERMAL INVERSION TO DEVELOP
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLR SKIES. COLDEST READINGS WL BE IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF THE DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...WITH LOWS IN THE M/U
30S TO M/U 40S WARMER VALLEYS AND MID SLOPE THERMAL BELT.
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE FLATTENS AS 5H VORT AND RIBBON OF ENHANCED 850
TO 500MB MOISTURE MOVES ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 18Z-00Z. INITIALLY COLUMN
WL BE VERY DRY WITH PLACEMENT OF RIDGE...SO EXPECTING 1ST SURGE OF
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS WITH VIRGA...BEFORE BETTER MOISTURE
ARRIVES BY 18Z ACRS THE SLV. NAM CONTS TO SHOW SFC DWPTS SURGING
INTO THE M/U 60S ON MONDAY AFTN...WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500
J/KG ACRS THE SLV. THIS MAYBE OVERDONE DUE TO THE WARM SFC
DWPTS...BUT EVEN THE GFS SHOWS SOME CAPE BTWN 800-1200 J/KG ON
MONDAY AFTN. BOTTOM LINE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WL BE
MENTION...BUT BLW SEVERE LIMITS. 85H TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID
70S MTNS TO L/M 80S WARMER VALLEYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE
HUMIDITY VALUES...ESPECIALLY TWD EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT FRIDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ACROSS FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING. WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...MID-LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS WEAKER AND DRIER SOLUTION
OF GFS REGARDING THIS FEATURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY...
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE DRIER ECMWF WHICH MAINTAINS NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AROUND CUTOFF LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S...THEN COOL TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...
EXCEPT 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST.
PREVAILING CIGS IFR AT SLK/MPV TILL ABOUT 12Z AND MVFR AT REST OF
SITES...WITH VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS. SLOWLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z AS DRIER AIR GRADUALLY MOVES IN AND
WINDS TURN NORTHWEST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z
AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT SLK/MPV WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY
FOG 06-12Z SUNDAY AT SLK AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALL TAF LOCATIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN PCPN POSSIBLE. GENERALLY VFR TUE-WED.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
953 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST TODAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE WEST OF THE LOW WILL
INHIBIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...STRONG IMPULSE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING TO KEEP SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST. AS YOU MOVE
EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW THE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE
BETTER. BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION.
BEST FORCING THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT BUT WILL NOT
MENTION SEVERE AT THIS TIME. BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
A LITTLE FARTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE
BASED POPS ON CURRENT RADAR AND 13 UTC HRRR WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDER...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING...TO WATFORD CITY...KILLDEER...BEULAH...
BISMARCK AND LINTON AND NAPOLEON BY AROUND MIDDAY...AND CONTINUING
TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY UPDATED
THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS.
THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AHEAD OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADAR
MUCH QUIETER THAN FRIDAY EVENING...STILL SOME ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED S/WV
IMPULSE...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LLJ. ELSEWHERE LIGHT ECHOS SHOWING
UP BUT NOTHING NOTEWORTHY.
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED WAVES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAIN
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH
AXIS WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL REMAINING SOUTH OF THE STATE. THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY OF ND WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS AS IT WILL BE NEAR THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS
ACROSS EASTERN SD.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE WEST INTO CENTRAL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR IS PULLED AROUND THE UPPER LOW BACK EAST
INTO WESTERN ND. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS POSSIBLE FAR WEST LATE...MORE
FAVORABLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A DRY SLOT TO NOSE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER SUNDAY. MARGINAL CAPE/SHEAR VALUES SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION
WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE POSITION AND EVOLUTION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. THE LOW IS
PROGGED TO MEANDER A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
SUGGESTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. CONTINUED TO
FORECAST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY AS A RESULT.
THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS PROG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DRYING/WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION FOR THE MORNING MAINLY INCLUDE POSSIBLE
AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VIS DEVELOPING AS SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR.
ADDED A MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KDIK AND KISN THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AND
DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE TONIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
937 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT AT LEAST WEST OF THE RED RIVER WE ARE SEEING A BIT
OF BREAK IN THE RAIN. RAP AND HRRR START BRINGING SOME PRECIP INTO
THE WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOWERED POPS THIS MORNING AND
RAMPED THEM BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING...BUT THINK THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS
PRECIP MOVES BACK IN FROM THE WEST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE AREA FOR ANY DESTABILIZATION BUT WILL JUST MONITOR FOR NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE BEMIDJI AREA SHORTLY...AND THEN EXPECT A
BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY. ADJUSTED POPS/WX ACCORDINGLY. KEPT
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY UNTIL AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS HAVE BEEN
GUSTING IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING
SHOWERS...AND INCREASED WIND GUSTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY INCREASES
TODAY FOR ISOLD SEVERE POTENTIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAIN (2+ INCHES)
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE VALLEY. THUNDER/SHOWER CHANCES
WILL BE THE OTHER CHALLENGE. 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
(ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS A TAD DIFFERENT)...AND WILL USE A
ECMWF/GEM/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THE CURRENT (08Z) AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA HAS OUTRAN
THE INSTABILITY...AND WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS JUST AN AREA OF SHOWERS. BEYOND THAT...NOT QUITE SURE HOW
TODAY IS GOING TO UNFOLD. THE REGION REMAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND THE SFC INVERTED TROUGH (ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY
AXIS) IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...LOCATED FROM THE SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND BY
00Z THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...MODERATE SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW
REMAINS EAST OF THE VALLEY. THIS ALL MEANS THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY GIVEN TIME. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...WITH AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FA. THUS...THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG AND ISOLD
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BRIEF WEAK TORNADOES MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY.
ON SUNDAY...THE SFC LOW STRENGTHENS AND PROPAGATES NORTHWARD
THROUGH MINNESOTA. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL
COINCIDE WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE SHOWERS. MOST GUIDANCE PLACES THIS POTENTIAL JUST EAST OF
THE VALLEY...AND SUGGESTS 1-2 INCHES WITH ISOLD AMOUNTS OF 2-4
INCHES. THIS AREA RECEIVED THE MOST RAINFALL FROM THE LAST
SYSTEM...WHERE THERE WAS SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. GIVEN
WHAT OCCURRED WITH THIS PAST EVENT...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESF). CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH (NOT SURE
IF THE 2+ INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FLOOD WATCH).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS A RESULT OF ENERGETIC FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE THERE IS
CHANCE POPS IN EVERY PERIOD. MODEL INCONSISTENCY WITH EVOLUTION OF
NORTHERN ROCKIES 500MB TROUGH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAINS...
CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY AND SO WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC POPS IN THE
FORECAST. A SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE KBJI AREA SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. ANTICIPATE A
BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SHOWER
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT SURE ABOUT
THUNDER COVERAGE AND KEPT WX MENTION AS SHOWERS FOR NOW. THE MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL BE CIGS...AND HOW MUCH THEY WILL LOWER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL INTO AT LEAST
MVFR RANGE...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW WITH EXACTLY WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR.
THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO FAST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
632 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WITH CLOUD IN 4-6K RANGE AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD ABOVE. RISK THUNDER LATE IN TAF PERIOD
AFTER 06Z AT SITES KBVO/KTUL/KRVS COVERED WITH PROB30.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
THE HUMIDITY WILL BE BACK TODAY AFTER A BRIEF HIATUS YESTERDAY.
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DRAW MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
TODAY...AND THE HRRR EVEN SHOWS SOME ISOLD TSTORM POTENTIAL OVER
FAR SE OK THIS AFTERNOON SO SOME SMALL POPS WERE INSERTED DOWN
THERE. PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. STORMS WILL FORM AND
CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVER KS...BUT SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE FAR NORTHERN OK AS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. SOME AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ON ITS TAIL END OVER THE
OZARKS DOWN INTO NE OK. WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE AS THE BEST FLOW REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...HOWEVER
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BRING SOME SEVERE HAIL/WIND
POTENTIAL REGARDLESS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT STORMS REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE KS/MO BORDERS SUNDAY NIGHT.
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND WARMING MID LVL TEMPS WILL KEEP THINGS
DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE EURO AND CANADIAN STILL BRING AN UPPER
SYSTEM IN FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY...WHILE ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK TO
BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR STORMS.
LACY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 88 73 88 72 / 10 30 30 30
FSM 87 71 90 71 / 10 10 20 10
MLC 86 72 89 73 / 10 10 10 10
BVO 89 71 87 70 / 10 40 40 50
FYV 83 66 86 67 / 10 10 30 20
BYV 83 66 86 67 / 10 10 30 30
MKO 86 70 88 70 / 10 20 30 20
MIO 86 70 86 70 / 10 40 40 50
F10 87 71 88 71 / 10 20 20 20
HHW 88 70 89 71 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
842 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS SEEM TO BE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITATION FALLING OUT OF A MID-LEVEL DECK IN ASSOCIATED WITH
ZONE OF WAA AND SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. 06Z NAM...LATEST RUN
OF RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO BE RELATIVELY CLUELESS. LOOKING FURTHER
UPSTREAM...AREA OF MAINLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
REMNACE OF MCS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA NOT IN A BIG HURRY TO
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SOME EVIDENCE
OF WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE. AGAIN
SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING DETAILS OF THIS ACTIVITY
VERY WELL WITH HRRR A BIT TOO FAR NORTH. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST INITIAL BAND OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY FALLING OUR OF MID-
DECK MAY MAKE IT A BIT FURTHER EAST THAT WHAT IS CURRENTLY
REFLECTED IN GRIDS. ACTIVITY FOR THE MOST PART VERY LIGHT...BUT AM
SEEING A FEW 45-50 DBZ RADAR RETURNS. ACTIVITY FURTHER UPSTREAM
APPEARS TO BE HEADING MORE TOWARD NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. GIVEN THAT
850 WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TOWARD
MID- DAY...WOULD EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY TO STAY FOCUSED OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN AS WE APPROACH MIDDAY.
GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS WILL BUMP UP POPS A BIT MORE ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I29
CORRIDOR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
UPPER FLOW ACRS NOAM IS QUITE AMPLIFIED FOR EARLY SUMMER. THE
LNGWV TROF POSN IS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH BROAD
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING CENTERED AT AROUNG 95W. THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WL
SHIFT EWD SOME THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN BUILD/SHARPEN BACK NWWD
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS AN ACTIVE PATTERN...
AND WL LIKELY RESULT IN ABV NORMAL PCPN. TEMPS WL VARY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF EACH SYSTEM AND DUE TO DAY TO DAY DIFFERENCES IN CLDS
AND PCPN...BUT WL PROBABLY END UP A LITTLE ABV NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
A MAJOR SHRTWV IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN THE BASE OF THE WRN
LNGWV TROF. THE SHRTWV WL SWING ARND INTO A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
EJECTS OUT OF TROF PSN...DRIVING A STG CYCLONE TOWARD SW ONTARIO
BY 00Z MON. CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER ARND WX GENERATED BY
THE CYCLONE.
STG ISENT LIFT WITH WELL DEVELOPED LLJ WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM IS FEEDING SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ACRS THE NRN
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY IS STILL LIMITED DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE GETTING SHOVED SWD BEHIND THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...
SO CONVECTION WAS WEAKENING AS IT MVS EWD. FARTHER E...SOME SHRA
WERE DEVELOPING OUT OF MID-DECK. THOSE WERE EDGING CLOSE TO THE
FCST AREA...AND WERE REACHING THE GROUND BASED ON SFC OBS. WL NEED
TO CARRY SPRINKLES ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...SHIFTG THE
AXIS NEWD WITH TIME. ECMWF ALREADY INDICATED THIS HAPPENING
YDA...SHOULD HAVE ADDED IT TO THE FCST BACK THEN.
CONVECTION COMING OUT OF SD FCST TO WEAKEN...BUT RADAR MOSAIC SURE
MAKES IT LOOK LIKE IT COULD AFFECT AT LEAST THE WRN PART OF THE
FCST AREA BEFORE THAT HAPPENS. WL LINGER SOME SLGT CHC POPS OVER
THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT...
AND BE READY TO UPDATE IF IT BECOMES APPARENT PCPN IS GOING TO
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA.
THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM DEALT PRIMARILY WITH STRUCTURING POPS.
STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN W/SW OF THE AREA TNGT AS THAT
IS WHERE LLJ WL BE DIRECTED AND WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY WL
RESIDE. STILL...LIKELY-CATEGORICAL POPS SEEMED WARRANTED FOR THE W
AS THAT AREA WL PROBABLY BE AFFECTED BY THE NE FLANK OF THE MCS.
CARRIED CHC POPS IN THE E.
THE MCS SHOULD WEAKEN/SHIFT OFF TO THE NE SUN MORNING. QUESTION IS
WHETHER/TO WHAT EXTENT REDEVELOPMENT WL OCCUR AS THE TAIL OF THE
MAIN SHRTWV AND COLD FRONT SURGE ACRS THE AREA IN THE AFTN. THE
NEGATIVE FACTORS ARE THE MORNING CONVECTION AND LIKELIHOOD OF
EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLDS ACRS THE AREA...AND HAVING THE DEEP MOISTURE
STILL TRYING TO GET INTO THE AREA FM THE SE. THE POSITIVES ARE THE
STG DYNAMICS AND TIME OF DAY OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO GET VERY DETAILED WITH POPS...BUT LIKELY POPS
SEEMED WARRANTED ALL AREAS AT LEAST SOME POINT IN THE DAY. MUCH OF
THE AREA IS IN THE SPC 5 PCT CHC OF SVR ON THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK. THAT SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN QUESTIONABLE INSTABILITY. BUT
IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP BEING GREATER EITHER DUE TO HIGHER DWPTS OR
FEWER CLDS...SVR THREAT COULD INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY GIVEN THE
DYANMICS SWINGING THROUGH THE RGN.
TEMPS SUN WL ALSO DEPEND ON HOW THE CONVECTION BEHAVES. A STG NWD
PUSH OF WARM AIR WL OCCUR E OF THE APPROACHING CYCLONE. THERE ARE
ALWAYSCONCERNS IN SITNS LIKE THIS ABOUT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MESSING
UP TEMPS. BUT WE ARE AT JUST ABOUT THE HIGHEST SUN ANGLES OF THE
YEAR...SO EVEN JUST AN HOUR OR TWO OF BREAKS IN THE CLDS SHOULD
CAUSE TEMPS TO SURGE UPWARD. RAISED MAXES ACRS ALL BUT LAKESHORE
AREAS. THE LAKESHORE IS TRICKY TOO...AS CHILLY TEMPS LIKLEY MOST
OF THE DAY WITH SELY/SLY FLOW UP THE LENGTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. BUT
SOME WARMING IS POSSIBLE LATE DAY AS FLOW VEERS SWLY. THOUGHT WAS
THAT SLY FLOW ALONG THE LAKESHORE WON/T CHANGE UNTIL THE
EVENING...SO STUCK WITH CHILLY MAX TEMPS RIGHT AT THE SHORELINE.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE ENDING OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES OR REMOVED
THEM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG
THE LAKESHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY EVENING TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA MONDAY EVENING... AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. ECMWF SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO SOME CONCERN ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS WARM
FRONT JUST LINGERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
CONCERNED THAT MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH
CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECTED FRONT MAY
BE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS INDICATE WHICH COMPLICATES THE
MATTER ON HOW FAR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ALSO
OF CONCERN IS THAT THE ECMWF IS STARTING TO NOSE A 1028MB HIGH
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THAT COULD KEEP THE NORTH DRYER AT
TIMES THAN WHAT IS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. MONDAY SHOULD BE A
WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. DEW POINTS WILL
NOT BE BAD WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S...MAYBE SOME MID TO
UPPER 40S IN THE SANDY SOIL REGION. BEYOND THAT...WIND
DIRECTION...CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL COULD HAVE A BIG
IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITONS UNTIL THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION
ARRIVES TNGT...THEN CIGS SHOULD DROP ACRS THE W. WL MAKE ISSUANCE
TIME DECISION ON LLWS FOR TNGT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........ESB
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
131 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COOLING TREND WILL
ACCOMPANY THE ONSHORE FLOW WITH COASTAL CLOUDS BECOMING MORE
EXTENSIVE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
COAST TOWARD MIDWEEK WITH A BRIEF RETURN TO WARMER WEATHER. LATE
IN THE WEEK ANOTHER COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE COAST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 12:54 PM PDT SATURDAY...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING AND A LOT
OF VARIETY IN THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH.
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THIS AFTERNOON SO NUDGED TODAYS HIGHS
UP A LITTLE IN THE GRID FORECASTS. SFO RUNNING AROUND 80 DEGREES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS TO BRUSH ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY NORTH BAY SO INCREASED
OPAQUE SKY GRID COVERAGE SOMEWHAT.
MODEL TRENDS LOOKS REASONABLE AS TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH SERIES OF DIGGING SHORT WAVES. ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AND NAM HAS OVER 4 MB SFO TO SAC
BY SUNDAY EVENING. SHALLOW MARINE LAYER TO REFORM NEAR THE COAST
OVERNIGHT AND DEEPEN INTO MONDAY. HRRR AND WRF DO NOT INDICATE
HIGH SURFACE RH TONIGHT OVER THE WATERS...SO EXPECT FOG TO RETURN TO
MAINLY COASTAL STRIP PROBABLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PERSISTENT NW
SURFACE WINDS OFFSHORE LEAVES PLENTY OF COLD WATER FOR FORMATION OF
FOG.
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO COAST AND NEAR
COASTAL VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AND DOWN THE
SALINAS VALLEY. STRATUS WILL SURGE FURTHER INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. LOOK FOR A COOLING TREND INTO
MONDAY ESPECIALLY COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY AND INLAND MONDAY.
INTRODUCED SOME DRIZZLE NEAR THE COAST SAN MATEO COUNTY SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH STRENGTHING SURFACE LOW OVER
SACRAMENTO VALLEY. EXPECT MORE STRATUS CLOUDS AND LESS VALLEY FOG
UNDER DEEPER MARINE LAYER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THERMAL TROF BACKS TO NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS TO PARALLEL COAST
MIDWEEK FOR CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS IN COASTAL AREAS EXPOSED TO
THE NW SEA BREEZE. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BEGINNING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE
MOVES ONSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK TROF APPROACHES THE COAST FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND FOR THE NEXT COOL DOWN AND MARINE PUSH.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 10:41 AM PDT SATURDAY...THE FORECAST MODELS
POINT TO FAIRLY PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.
DRY. VFR MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY LATE.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. WEST WIND GUSTS 20 TO 28 KNOT POSSIBLE
00Z-04Z.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY.
OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CLOUDS RETURNING LATE.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 10:41 AM PDT SATURDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE STRONG WINDS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS WITH STEEP FRESH SWELLS
AND WIND WAVES.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: KBB
AVIATION/MARINE: SIMS
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
347 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
CURRENTLY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST
ACROSS UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH MOST AREAS
GUSTING IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. TEMPERATURES ARE HOT WITH 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE COMBINED WITH THE
STRONG WINDS TO PRODUCE VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ANY
OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE POSTPONED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE TRIED TO GET GOING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BUT HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL BE THE CONTINUED DANGEROUS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING THE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY STALLED OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE SHOULD START TO PROGRESS SOUTH AROUND 6 PM AND PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE STRONG
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH NORTH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH. THERE IS A
CONCERN THAT WINDS COULD BE STRONGER...IF THEY CAN GET HELP FROM
SOUTHWARD SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. SPEAKING OF CONVECTION...MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND INTO THE PALMER
DIVIDE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AND
DRY LIGHTNING IS A CONCERN. FOR NOW JUST HAVE ISOLATED COVERAGE
OVER THESE AREAS. OVER BACA COUNTY...THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR MODELS
ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER BACA COUNTY AROUND
04Z AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED ACTIVITY THERE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ONCE ANY CONVECTION DISSIPATES OR MOVES INTO KANSAS.
SUNDAY...ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR REGION.
EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES GIVEN
THE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES. AS FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS DEVELOPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW THE DISTURBANCE LOOKS TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE
ANY IMPACT ON OUR CWA...SO LEFT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.
MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH
WILL DRIFT EASTWARD. NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER SUNDAY EVENING. THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS QUITE LOW AND ONLY HAVE SILENT POPS. MAIN
WEATHER STORY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS THE DRY AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. ON MONDAY...GRIDS HAVE ALMOST THE
ENTIRE CWA REACHING THE METEOROLOGICAL CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG
WARNING. HOWEVER...LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES ONLY HAVE FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 226 AND 227 (EL PASO COUNTY) WITH CRITICAL FUELS. DECIDED
NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR ONLY THESE TWO
ZONES AND MID SHIFT CAN PROVIDE PLENTY OF LEAD TIME FOR A HIGHLIGHT.
IF FUELS DO BECOME CRITICAL...FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
LIKELY. ON TUESDAY...WINDS ALOFT ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER...BUT SUSPECT
WINDS WILL STILL BE NEAR OR EXCEED RED FLAG CRITERIA...WITH
HUMIDITIES REMAINING LOW. DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME...PERSONS SHOULD STILL BE VERY CAREFUL
WITH ANY OPEN FLAMES.
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH WILL PASS
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
STRONGLY FAVOR KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORMS
WILL VERY LIKELY STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. OTHER CONCERN WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG
WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS... EVEN WITH MINIMAL MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. GRIDS ARE STINGY WITH POPS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...GIVEN THE LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE HIGHER
THAN POP VALUES. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.
FINALLY...HAVE CONCERNS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR WINDS AND
HUMIDITY ON WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM...REGION COULD STILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY COOL ENOUGH FOR
HUMIDITIES TO BE JUST ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA.
.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES TO THE EAST AND A
WARM AND DRY RIDGE ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION. GFS HAS +20C
TEMPERATURES AT 700MB OB SATURDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HOT
TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW STAYS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION FOR
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS COULD PROVIDE
SOME WEAK UPSLOPE TO THE PLAINS...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE EDGE OFF
OF THE HEAT. A MODEST PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALSO MOVE
INTO THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
KALS...STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KTS ARE
LIKELY ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE.
KCOS AND KPUB...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 TO 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER KPUB. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
MOVING INTO KCOS AROUND 00Z/SUN AND SHORTLY THERE AFTER FOR KPUB.
STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE RAMPART RANGE WEST OF KCOS BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT
THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ226-227.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1117 AM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...
UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL SWING THROUGH COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON SPREADING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ACROSS ALL
OF THE DISTRICT. THIS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY AREA WITH CRITICAL FUELS (THOSE RECEPTIVE
TO RAPID RATES OF FIRE SPREAD) ACCORDING TO LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES
IS ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY...AND RED FLAG WARNING HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. AS FAR AS WEATHER CONDITIONS GO...WINDS WILL
GUST UP TO 40 TO NEAR 50 MPH IN SOME PLACES AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT AND EVEN BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS AS THE DRY LINE MOVES EASTWARD INTO KANSAS. ON THE BROADER
SCALE...WITH THE GREEN UP/SNOW MELT/AND RECENT RAINFALL FUELS ARE
NOT AS DANGEROUSLY RECEPTIVE TO FIRE. REGARDLESS...THIS IS NOT THE
DAY FOR ANY OUTDOOR BURNING...ESPECIALLY IF FUELS ARE LOCALLY DRY IN
YOUR AREA. CERTAINLY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BEGIN THE DRYING
PROCESS.
HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED SOME BLOWING DUST IN THE GRIDS FOR THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND THE I-25 CORRIDOR OF PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND WESTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTIES. BROUGHT THE BLOWING DUST INTO CROWLEY AND OTERO
COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ITS
DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW DRY THE GROUND IS AND LOOSE THE SOIL MAY
BE...SO KEPT BLOWING DUST CONFINED TO AREAS MOST PRONE TO IT AND
WHERE PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS INDICATES THAT
THERE AS BEEN THE MINIMAL RAINFALL.
AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE FOR DRY LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CHAFFEE/LAKE
COUNTIES...AND SAGUACHE COUNTY. MODELS KEEP MOISTURE VERY HIGH
BASED...AND RAP13 AND GFS ARE MUCH DRIER WITH THE SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAN NAM12 WHICH IS
OFTEN OVERLY OPTIMISTIC. HIGH RES HRRR CONCURS WITH THE DRIER MODEL
RUNS. PIKES PEAK AREA AND KIOWA COUNTY COULD SEE A DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKE AS WELL...HOWEVER COLD FRONT SHOULD COME BARRELING IN AROUND
00Z AND HUMIDITIES SHOULD INCREASE PRETTY QUICKLY. HAVE MAINTAINED
ISOLATED POPS FOR THESE AREAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS BY 06Z. LOCAL 4KM WRF SUGGESTS WINDS COULD GUST
CLOSE TO 50 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS CROWLEY...OTERO...
KIOWA...BENT...AND PROWERS COUNTIES BETWEEN 6 PM AND 9 PM AS THE
FRONT RACES THROUGH.
HAVE MAINTAINED SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN BORDER
COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING WITH SOME FORCING FROM THE FRONT...BUT
NOT OVERLY OPTIMISTIC THAT MUCH WILL OCCUR. -KT
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
ON SUN...COOLER AIR WILL COVER MOST OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH/FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY
WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS DEVELOP ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
A RETURN TO HOT..DRY AND OCCASIONALLY WINDY CONDITIONS APPEARS
LIKELY MON/TUE AS SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH
LATEST MODELS KEEP HIGHER DEWPOINTS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BORDER. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION BOTH DAYS...AND WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE FUEL
CONDITIONS MON AS PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT/DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO FUELS DRYING OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SLIGHTLY DRIER
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAIN ZONES. WESTERN UPPER LOW EJECTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WED NIGHT...THEN INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA BY THU MORNING...WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING SOUTH THU/FRI.
PRECIP CHANCES FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOK FAIRLY LOW AS
AGAIN LOW LEVEL FLOW KEEPS A WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH FRI WITH
ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOME HINTS IN THE MODEL DATA OF BETTER LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN BEGINNING NEXT WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES AND
WEAKENS...THOUGH STILL SEVERAL FORECAST ITERATIONS TO GO BEFORE
ONE CAN HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN A PATTERN CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT SAT JUN 14 2014
KALS...STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KTS ARE
LIKELY ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WHICH MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
KCOS AND KPUB...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 TO 35 KTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER KPUB. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS THE FRONT MOVING INTO KCOS AROUND 00Z/SUN AND SHORTLY THERE
AFTER FOR KPUB. STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE RAMPART RANGE WEST OF KCOS BUT
SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE TERMINAL. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ226-227.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
301 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE INTERIOR REGIONS...IN
GENERAL COVERAGE IS NOT EXTENSIVE YET WITH THE HRRR MODEL
INDICATING A LATER START TO THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. EARLIER RADAR
RETURNS ALREADY INDICATED POSSIBLE HAIL IN THE CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHWEST INTERIOR BROWARD COUNTY WITH A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EARLIER ANALYSIS FROM THE 12Z SOUNDING
INDICATING AN ENHANCED 700 TO 500 HPA LAPSE RATE...DRIER AIR IN
THE HAIL GROWTH REGION OF -20 T0 -30 CELSIUS AND A THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST. THEREFORE AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH HAIL TO NEAR ONE INCH POSSIBLE AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH OR JUST OVER.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...I.E. THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND FOR THE
COVERAGE TO INCREASE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH LATEST HRRR RUNS. SO FAR THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
WINDS AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS KEEPING CONVECTION CONFINED
TO THE INTERIOR REGIONS. HOWEVER...WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE SEA
BREEZE AND CURRENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THE CONVECTION COULD STILL
AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS LATER. PLUS THERE IS LOW TO
MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT COULD HELP THE CONVECTION DRIFT
INTO THE METRO AREAS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AS WELL.
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH SUNDAS AND THEREAFTER IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD BUT COULD LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED 700-500 HPA LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THAT COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...WITH PWAT`S FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 1.6 INCHES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SEAS FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 89 75 88 / 50 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 89 78 89 / 40 30 20 20
MIAMI 77 90 77 89 / 40 30 20 30
NAPLES 73 90 73 91 / 50 30 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1221 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT WITH NO SITES CURRENTLY REPORTING MVFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION BEING SOME POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER ACADIANA. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE INCLUDING VCSH FOR BOTH LFT
AND ARA AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOIST ENOUGH
ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
AND OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TODAY. OVERNIGHT CEILINGS SHOULD
COME DOWN TO MVFR WITH THE LONE CANDIDATE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT BEING AEX. INCLUDED BR WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN
VISIBILITY FOR AEX BEGINNING AT 12Z.
RDEAL
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014/
UPDATE...GOOD SUBSIDENCE NOTED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SEABREEZE, THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR
TO PREDICTED 91 AT BPT. MORNING SOUNDING MINIMALLY UNSTABLE.
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON POPS STILL LOOKING GOOD. NO CHANGES NEEDED.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014/
AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. SOME LIGHT FOG
ONGOING AT LCH EARLY THIS MORNING BUT WILL BE DISSIPATING SOON.
ALL OTHER TERMINALS SHOWING NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. FOR
TODAY...WHILE MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...SHARPLY DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...AND
AT THIS TIME CARRYING JUST VCSH AT LFT AND ARA WHERE SLIGHTLY MORE
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL START OUT THE MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM. SCATTERED CU AHEAD FOR TODAY WITH SOME THIN
CIRRUS ALOFT. VFR.
MARCOTTE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WEAK BOUNDARY MOVED DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND HELP STORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY MADE
IT`S WAY TO THE COAST BEFORE STALLING AND IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF
WASHING OUT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AFTER
SUNRISE. WE ARE IN A VERY PERSISTENT/ OR TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER
PATTERN THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
HOT AFTERNOONS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THESE
WILL BE THE HIT OR MISS TYPE STORMS. WARM MUGGY MORNINGS TO START
OUT THE DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTHEAST DURING
THE DAY. THE TROPIC`S REMAIN QUIET.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 89 73 89 76 89 / 10 10 20 10 20
KBPT 91 75 90 77 91 / 10 10 20 10 20
KAEX 90 71 90 73 91 / 10 10 20 10 20
KLFT 91 74 89 75 90 / 20 10 30 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.LAKECHARLES.GOV
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
657 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
NULL WEATHER FOR TONIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL HAVE THE ONLY INFLUENCE ON
AVIATION OPERATIONS ON SUNDAY. EXPECTING GUSTS TO 20KT TO EMERGE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AT SAGINAW AND FLINT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
DELAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY INCREASES FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE ON THE
NEXT COLD FRONT.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* NONE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE FAVORABLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN AND THE STABLE LAKE AGGREGATE OF
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING. LATEST KDTX .5Z IMAGERY
SUPPORTS A LAKE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER SECTIONS OF
MACOMB AND WAYNE COUNTIES IMMEDIATE TO THE LAKE ST CLAIR SHORELINE.
IN ADDITION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLIER DEPICTED A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR EASTERN THUMB. SURFACE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO VEER LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
DRIFTS OVERHEAD A MOVE AWAY FROM THE WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW NOW IN
PLACE. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN FALL OFF FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL FOLLOW...SHIFTING EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH CLOUD TO EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. RECENT RUC DATA SUPPORTS SOME HIGH CLOUD DRIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN YET THIS EVENING. TRANSPARENCY FOR CLOUDS
THIS FAR SOUTH WILL BE HIGH WHICH WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON LOWS
OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS MODERATION SHOULD LEAD TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREE WARMER. CURRENT DEWPOINTS RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID
40S SETS A GOOD BASELINE FOR AREAS NORTH OF M 59. IN THE URBAN
AREAS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD LOWER INTO THE LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING OUT OF
THE PLAINS. THE EFFECTIVE DEEPENING OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ESTABLISH A SOLID WARM AIR ADVECTIVE COMPONENT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE 850-925 MB LAYER WILL WARM ROUGHLY 5-6 DEGREES RELATIVE TO
TODAY...LEAVING 850 MB READINGS IN THE 15C RANGE. GIVEN AT LEAST A
MODESTLY MIXED PROFILE WITH FULL INSOLATION INTO THIS LAYER...THIS
SUPPORTS AN INCREMENTAL INCREASE IN HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S.
SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE NEAR SURFACE WIND FIELD WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A TOUCH COOLER ALONG THE LAKESHORE LOCALES
/MID-UPPER 70S/.
MAIN HEIGHT FALL CENTER WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AT IT
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL FILL
EASTWARD...ALLOWING AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO EASE ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BOUNDARY APPEARS DEFINED MORE BY
THE TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT...A PERIOD OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
COMMENCING LOCALLY 06Z-12Z MONDAY MORNING. A STEADY INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY THROUGH THIS PROCESS WILL INTRODUCE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONTAL SLOPE WORKS THROUGH. A
GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT WOULD SEEMINGLY RELY ON A
GREATER UPTICK IN FORCING PROVIDED VIA THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE
OR REMNANT MCV WITH SOME ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT.
THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH/EAST BY
EARLY MONDAY AS THE AREA BRIEFLY ENTERS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THERMAL
PROFILE REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THAT NOTED ON SUNDAY...SLIGHT
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW YIELDING A GREATER MIXING
POTENTIAL. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGHS MAKING A RUN INTO THE MIDDLE
80S...PARTICULARLY IF THE ONGOING DRY AIR ADVECTION SCOURS OUT ANY
RESIDUAL CLOUD EARLY ENOUGH DURING THE DAY.
OVERALL SETUP FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND BRING
CONTINUAL CHANCES FOR BOTH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR THE WEEK. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR THE START OF
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL ASSIST IN BRINGING RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. WITH WAA OCCURRING ON
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND CANNOT RULE OUT
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. SECOND IN THE SERIES OF WAVES IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. FROM THERE THE LONG RANGE
PATTERN BECOMES MUDDLED...AS OF NOW THERE LOOKS TO BE A BOUNDARY
THAT MAY SETUP ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
BE ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO BRING TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA...FROM THERE TEMPS SLOWLY GO BACK INTO THE
UPPER 70S. THE SETUP AS A WHOLE LOOKS TO START TO BREAK DOWN AT THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND THROUGH TONIGHT WINDS WILL EMERGE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TURNING DRIER ON MONDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY BECOME MORE
ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MANN
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR/SS
MARINE.......MR
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
351 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE FAVORABLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN AND THE STABLE LAKE AGGREGATE OF
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING. LATEST KDTX .5Z IMAGERY
SUPPORTS A LAKE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER SECTIONS OF
MACOMB AND WAYNE COUNTIES IMMEDIATE TO THE LAKE ST CLAIR SHORELINE.
IN ADDITION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLIER DEPICTED A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR EASTERN THUMB. SURFACE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO VEER LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
DRIFTS OVERHEAD A MOVE AWAY FROM THE WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW NOW IN
PLACE. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN FALL OFF FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL FOLLOW...SHIFTING EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH CLOUD TO EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. RECENT RUC DATA SUPPORTS SOME HIGH CLOUD DRIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN YET THIS EVENING. TRANSPARENCY FOR CLOUDS
THIS FAR SOUTH WILL BE HIGH WHICH WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON LOWS
OVERNIGHT. AIR MASS MODERATION SHOULD LEAD TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREE WARMER. CURRENT DEWPOINTS RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID
40S SETS A GOOD BASELINE FOR AREAS NORTH OF M 59. IN THE URBAN
AREAS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD LOWER INTO THE LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS EJECTING OUT OF
THE PLAINS. THE EFFECTIVE DEEPENING OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ESTABLISH A SOLID WARM AIR ADVECTIVE COMPONENT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THE 850-925 MB LAYER WILL WARM ROUGHLY 5-6 DEGREES RELATIVE TO
TODAY...LEAVING 850 MB READINGS IN THE 15C RANGE. GIVEN AT LEAST A
MODESTLY MIXED PROFILE WITH FULL INSOLATION INTO THIS LAYER...THIS
SUPPORTS AN INCREMENTAL INCREASE IN HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S.
SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE NEAR SURFACE WIND FIELD WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A TOUCH COOLER ALONG THE LAKESHORE LOCALES
/MID-UPPER 70S/.
MAIN HEIGHT FALL CENTER WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AT IT
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL FILL
EASTWARD...ALLOWING AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO EASE ACROSS SE
MICHIGAN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BOUNDARY APPEARS DEFINED MORE BY
THE TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT...A PERIOD OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
COMMENCING LOCALLY 06Z-12Z MONDAY MORNING. A STEADY INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY THROUGH THIS PROCESS WILL INTRODUCE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONTAL SLOPE WORKS THROUGH. A
GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT WOULD SEEMINGLY RELY ON A
GREATER UPTICK IN FORCING PROVIDED VIA THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE
OR REMNANT MCV WITH SOME ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT.
THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH/EAST BY
EARLY MONDAY AS THE AREA BRIEFLY ENTERS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THERMAL
PROFILE REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THAT NOTED ON SUNDAY...SLIGHT
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW YIELDING A GREATER MIXING
POTENTIAL. THIS POINTS TOWARD HIGHS MAKING A RUN INTO THE MIDDLE
80S...PARTICULARLY IF THE ONGOING DRY AIR ADVECTION SCOURS OUT ANY
RESIDUAL CLOUD EARLY ENOUGH DURING THE DAY.
OVERALL SETUP FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDES A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH
WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND BRING
CONTINUAL CHANCES FOR BOTH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR THE WEEK. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR THE START OF
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL ASSIST IN BRINGING RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. WITH WAA OCCURRING ON
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR INCREASING
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND CANNOT RULE OUT
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. SECOND IN THE SERIES OF WAVES IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. FROM THERE THE LONG RANGE
PATTERN BECOMES MUDDLED...AS OF NOW THERE LOOKS TO BE A BOUNDARY
THAT MAY SETUP ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
BE ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO BRING TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA...FROM THERE TEMPS SLOWLY GO BACK INTO THE
UPPER 70S. THE SETUP AS A WHOLE LOOKS TO START TO BREAK DOWN AT THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND THROUGH TONIGHT WINDS WILL EMERGE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. GUSTS
TO 20 KNOTS FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TURNING DRIER ON MONDAY...BEFORE CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY BECOME MORE
ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 137 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
//DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON SETTLING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON AND SOUTHWESTERN
ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE GRADIENT FLOW AT THE
SURFACE TO VEER TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS
LOW...BUT SHOULD OCCUR PRIOR TO SUNDOWN EITHER IN A FOCUSED LAKE
BREEZE PUSH OR A MORE GRADUAL TRANSITION TO ONSHORE FLOW. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST OF MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW CIRRUS DEBRIS CLOUD FROM UPSTREAM TO
OVERSPREAD THE STATE. OTHERWISE...A QUIET AND FAVORABLE TIME
PERIOD FOR AVIATION WEATHER.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* NONE.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR/SS
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....CB
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1249 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS IN ANTICIPATION THAT
STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE PREVALENT INITIALLY OVER THE NRN CWA.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THEN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN TAPER OFF AROUND 12Z SUN
MORNING. STILL APPEARS AT THIS POINT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SVR
TSTMS/HVY RAINFALL WILL BE FOUND NORTH OF I-80.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
MEAN CLOSED UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
WITH A LEAD PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
HAD H50 20-30 METER HEIGHT FALLS. H85 MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ONTO THE PLAINS WITH LOWER/MID TEENS FEEDING INTO
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL SD SOUTHWARD INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS COMBO OF WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR AN ISOLATED MOSTLY NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
MENTION THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY ALONG/NORTH OF I80...THAT CONTINUES
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY BY 18Z.
OTHERWISE...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS TODAY AS WELL.
AHEAD OF IT...INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A
WINDY/WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT WE COULD
MEET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG/SOUTH OF I80 BY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THUS WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE
AREAS.
MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
TAP INTO DEEPER MOISTURE BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID-
UPPER 60S BY AFTERNOON AS WELL. MID LEVEL H70 TEMPS OF +12 TO +14
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE EAST...WHICH WILL
LIKELY EFFECTIVELY CAP MOST OF THE ARE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST CONVECTION INDEED BREAKS OUT WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS WAY OVERDONE.
BELIEVE BEST SCENARIO FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA WILL BE VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER 21Z ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...AND
FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...SIMILAR TO
LATEST RAP MODEL AND 4KM WRF DEPICTIONS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL
JET BEGINS TO RESTRENGTHEN. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WITHIN
AN AREA OF STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS EARLY ON. PW VALUES ALSO INCREASE TO JUST OVER 2
INCHES DURING THIS TIME...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I80. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A
WINDOW FOR A TORNADO THREAT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION
SPECIALLY IN EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING AS 0-1KM SHEAR
VALUES INCREASE TO 30-40KT. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPC HAS A MODERATE RISK FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AND HAVE VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SEVERE STORMS
WILL DEVELOP...FIRST IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SPREADING EAST/SOUTHEAST TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING. GIVEN NUMEROUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ACROSS THE REGION...
IT`S ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT TO BE AWARE OF THE WEATHER LATER TODAY.
WHILE THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER LINGERING ALONG AND
EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE LAST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE PLEASANT WITH WESTERLY DRYING WINDS
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPS.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER DEVELOPING WAVE
WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS TO THE AREA BY MONDAY. GIVEN
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES...THE REGION IS UNDER ANOTHER
SLIGHT RISK FROM THE SPC FOR DAY 3.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
HEALTHY CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE AREA...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR SEVERE RISK. THIS WAVE SHOULD PUSH NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA
BY 12Z TUESDAY. IT DOES GET HOT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS HEADING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...AND IT GETS FAIRLY MUGGY WITH
DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S AND MAYBE EVEN LOWER 70S. WILL
CONTINUE DRY TREND INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER
WAVE MOVE INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING STORMS BACK TO
THE FORECAST. USED MODEL BLENDED DATA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MAIN ISSUE IS TIMING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THE EVENING. A
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO ERN NEB EARLY LATE THIS AFTN WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR TSRA ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE BNDRY. EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE
TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA THEN OVERNIGHT. THE STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE QUITE CONDUCIVE TO ALLOW SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LEADING UP TO THE FROPA WITH +TSRAGR/VRB50KT POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS BTWN 01Z-04Z THIS EVENING. TSRA ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THEN BY 12Z SUN MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THE
REST OF THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ051>053-
065>068-078-088>093.
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ069-079-080-
090-091.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DEE
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
316 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS IT CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME ILL-DEFINED. HIGH PRESSURE...NEARLY OVERHEAD
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL MOVE PROGRESSIVELY OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHEN AS
IT RIDGES WESTWARD FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD
BACK ACROSS THE AREA MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK...THE RISK FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT BASICALLY ALIGNED ALONG
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. IT CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME MOVEMENT TO THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...WITH THE AFTERNOON THRU EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE
...ITS MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD WILL TEMPORARILY BE ON HOLD THIS AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING. WITH 2 SFC BOUNDARIES PROVIDING SOME LIFT ACROSS THE
FA...ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT 20
TO POSSIBLY 30 POPS FOR LOCATIONS BASICALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES WITHIN THE ILM CWA. THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE ILM CWA IS
UNDER DECENT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND HAS BEEN KEEPING A LID ON ANY
VERTICAL CU DEVELOPMENT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS
DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE ILM CWA. LATEST
SREF POPS ALSO REMAIN UNDER 30 PERCENT FOR THE ILM CWA COASTAL
COUNTIES. FOR TONIGHT...THE FRONT FINALLY MEANDERS SOUTHWARD AND
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...IT SHOULD FINALLY BE SOUTH OF THE FA. EXPECT
THE DRIER AIR...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA OVERNIGHT.
BOTH NAM AND GFS MODEL TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS ILLUSTRATE THIS DRY AIR
INTRUSION NICELY. FOR AFTN MAX TEMPS TODAY...STAYED CLOSER TO THE
HIGHER MOS GUIDANCE WHICH IN THIS CASE IS THE GFS...EVEN AREAS
CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL SEE 90+ DEGREE MAX READINGS. FOR TONIGHTS
LOWS...AVAILABLE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE VERY SIMILAR TO ONE ANOTHER AND
SEE NO REASON TO DETOUR FROM THEIR NUMBERS. HAVE INDICATED PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH CLOUDINESS THINNING
OUT AND WINDS LIKELY TO DECOUPLE...PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
DURING THE PRE-DAWN SUNDAY HRS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY WILL
QUICKLY BECOME ILL-DEFINED DURING SUN AS ONSHORE WINDS BRING A
DEVELOPING SEABREEZE WELL INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH SUN AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.
ANY CONVECTION EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. THE REAL
ONLY OPPORTUNITY SHOULD BE SUN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE GRAND STRAND AND SOUTHERN PEE DEE REGION WHERE THE
INCOMING DRY AIR WILL BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE. SINCE WE CAN NOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF POP UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THESE AREAS.
TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLE FOR MID JUNE...EVEN
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. WE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 INLAND WITH COASTAL AREAS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S AS A
SEABREEZE WORKS WELL INLAND EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE GIVEN THE
PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW. THE DRIER THAN NORMAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AT NIGHT. NIGHTTIME LOWS
AT THE BEACHES WILL BE HIGHER DUE TO MARINE INFLUENCES...LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LETHARGIC
PATTERN AT THE MID LEVELS AS WE WOULD ANTICIPATE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL EVER SO SLOWLY BE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST. THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE REFLECTIVE OF THIS
CHANGE AS WELL WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON THE MAPS UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN
THE WESTERLIES DROPPING SOUTH WITH THE RIDGE SHOW A PIEDMONT TROUGH.
THE POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THAT MATTER FOLLOW THIS TREND WITH
MINIMAL POPS MAINLY INLAND FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...POPS RECOVER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BUT
NOTHING IN THE MIX TO WARRANT VALUES HIGHER THAN THAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE VERY WARM THE FIRST TWO DAYS WITH MIDDLE 90S INLAND TO NEAR
90 ALONG THE COAST. THE HIGHER POPS SHOULD TRIM A COUPLE OF DEGREES
OFF THESE NUMBERS LATER IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS. A
CUMULUS FIELD IS FINALLY FILLING IN ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
THE NOSE OF A DRY AIR INTRUSION ALOFT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE ADVECTING IN FROM THE
W...BUT DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 ARE STILL OCCURRING AT THE IMMEDIATE
NC COAST...IE. KILM. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT ANY CONVECTION THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. PER LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION
COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR VCTS AT KILM. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE SOMEWHAT
PINNED SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT TO GET THINGS STARTED. THE
ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY SUNSET.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING UNDER SKC SKIES.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE MVFR VSBYS WILL DEVELOP. CHANCES OF
IFR APPEAR LOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST LAYER SFC-5K. AROUND
DAYBREAK VFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GENERALLY E WINDS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE EARLY MORNING IFR MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WITH THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
MEANDER ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL CAROLINAS THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON ...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT WILL YIELD NEARLY
A VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10 KT. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
WILL PRODUCE A SE-S WIND 10-15 KT NEAR SHORE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL
WINDS BECOMING NE-E AT 10-15 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3
FT...AND WILL FLIRT WITH 4 FT THIS AFTN/EVENG ACROSS THE WATERS
OFF CAPE FEAR. NO APPRECIABLE GROUND SWELL TO SPEAK OF...WITH
SIGNIFICANT SEAS RULED BY WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 5 TO 7
SECOND PERIODS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
EASTERLY SUN INTO MON...VEERING TO SE LATER MON AND TO SSW MON NIGHT
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE REORIENTS ITSELF OFFSHORE. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RELAXED AND DO NOT EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO
EXCEED 10 TO 15 KT EVEN IN THE VICINITY OF A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE
EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE AND A LAND BREEZE DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 2 TO 3 FT. A WEAK 8 TO 10
SECOND ESE SWELL WILL BE PRESENT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WATERS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2-3
FEET. THERE IS A TREND OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD WHEN THE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH THE FORMATION OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND. IN THIS CASE STRONGER EQUATES TO THE HIGHER
END OF THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE. SLOW INCREASE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FOUR
FOOTERS FROM DEVELOPING BUT THESE WILL APPEAR JUST BEYOND THE PERIOD
CONCLUDES.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH/MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
147 PM EDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF
SHORE THROUGH MID WEEK AS PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
INLAND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT BASICALLY ALIGNED ALONG
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. IT CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME MOVEMENT TO THE
SOUTH. HOWEVER...WITH THE AFTERNOON THRU EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE
EXPECTED...ITS MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD WILL TEMPORARILY BE ON HOLD
TODAY. WITH 2 SFC BOUNDARIES PROVIDING SOME LIFT ACROSS THE FA
ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WILL HIGHLIGHT 20 TO POSSIBLY 30
POPS FOR LOCATIONS BASICALLY EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. LATEST
SREF KEEPS POPS UNDER 30 PERCENT. FOR TONIGHT...THE FRONT MEANDERS
SOUTHWARD AND JUST AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY...IT SHOULD FINALLY BE
SOUTH OF THE FA. EXPECT DRIER AIR...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...TO PUSH
ACROSS THE FA AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOR MAX TEMPS
TODAY...STAYED CLOSER TO THE HIGHER MOS GUIDANCE WHICH IN THIS
CASE IS THE GFS. FOR TONIGHTS LOWS...AVAILABLE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE
VERY SIMILAR TO ONE ANOTHER AND SEE NO REASON TO DETOUR FROM THEIR
NUMBERS. HAVE INDICATED PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WITH CLOUDINESS THINNING OUT AND WINDS LIKELY TO
DECOUPLE...PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN
SUNDAY HRS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...................................
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT PRECEDED BY A TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY DROP SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. THE FRONT...AS EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR...DOES NOT
HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF THERMAL SUPPORT BUT DOES SPORT A
NOTICEABLE DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY...WITH 60S AND EVEN UPPER 50S
FOR DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL FOR A
WHILE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE
FRONT GIVES SOME PUSH-BACK. THE FRONT WILL RESUME ITS SOUTHWARD
TREK OVERNIGHT.
LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE THE RELATIVELY DRY
MID-LEVELS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE INDICES FAVOR CONVECTION TODAY AND
THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS...EXPECT THAT COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO RESTRICTED MOISTURE ALOFT. HAVE CAPPED POPS
AT 30 TODAY...SO EXPECTING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE PROFILE LOOKS
BEST RIGHT AROUND NOW BEFORE IT STARTS A DRYING TREND. OVERNIGHT
WILL DRY OUT AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND DRYER AIR MOVES IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE SEASONAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90...AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE
NORTH BEHIND WEAKENING FRONT SAGGING FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
KEEP LOCAL FORECAST AREA CLEAR OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS
WILL BE REINFORCED BY A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK ITS
WAY DOWN THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE LEAVING A COUPLE OF DRY AND WARM
SUMMER DAYS. THIS DRIER AIR WILL BRING SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES BY SUN AFTN INTO MONDAY. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CU AND
WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED SHWR POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CAROLINA EARLIER IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
TO START THE WEEK OFF THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. PREVAILING WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND EXPECT SEA/LAND BREEZE TO DOMINATE WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME TEMPS...DAY TIME HIGHS UP CLOSE TO 90 AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WITH RIDGE EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FARTHER OFF SHORE
THROUGH MID WEEK ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN FLOW TO SET UP WITH
PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS INLAND CAROLINAS
THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL ACT TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW WITH SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS CREEPING BACK UP AROUND 70. BASICALLY
EXPECTING MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER...ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE
ALOFT SHOULD ACT TO SUPPRESS AFTN CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART.
EXPECT SOME CU DEVELOPMENT AND GREATER CHC OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THURS AND FRI AS RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND BROAD TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST PUSHES A WEST TO EAST FACING FRONT SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY FRI. TEMPS WILL HEAD BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
OF THE PERIOD AS RIDGE BUILDS AND H5 HEIGHTS RISE WITH PLENTY OF
WARM JUNE SUNSHINE AS WE APPROACH THE LONGEST DAY OF THE YEAR. DAY
TIME HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 90 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS.
A CUMULUS FIELD IS FINALLY FILLING IN ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS. THE NOSE OF A DRY AIR INTRUSION ALOFT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE ADVECTING
IN FROM THE W...BUT DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 ARE STILL OCCURRING AT THE
IMMEDIATE NC COAST...IE. KILM. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND WEAK
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT ANY CONVECTION THAT TRIES TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. PER LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...THE THREAT FOR
CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR VCTS AT KILM. THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE
SOMEWHAT PINNED SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT TO GET THINGS
STARTED. THE ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY SUNSET.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING UNDER SKC SKIES.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE MVFR VSBYS WILL DEVELOP. CHANCES OF
IFR APPEAR LOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST LAYER SFC-5K. AROUND
DAYBREAK VFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH GENERALLY E WINDS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE EARLY MORNING IFR MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM SATURDAY...WITH THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
MEANDER ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TODAY...THE SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN AND GRADIENT WILL YIELD NEARLY A VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION
AT 5 TO 10 KT. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL PRODUCE A SE-S WIND
10-15 KT NEAR SHORE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN MAKE ITS PUSH
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...WITH POST FRONTAL WINDS BECOMING NE-E AT 10-15
KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT...AND WILL FLIRT WITH 4 FT
THIS AFTN/EVENG THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. NO GROUND SWELL TO SPEAK
OF...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE RULED BY WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING
5 TO 7 SECOND PERIODS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..................................
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS FRONT IS WEAK...GRADIENT
WILL NOT BE TIGHT AND WINDS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHT SIDE...10 TO 15
KTS OR LESS...THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE TODAY...AND AROUND 2 FT OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG FARTHER SOUTH SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WHILE WEAKENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT 10-15 KT FROM THE NE WILL VEER
TO SE 15 KT THROUGH SUN AFTN. A LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF SHORE BUT LIGHT PREVAILING FLOW WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY LAND/SEA BREEZE SUN AND MON. SEAS
WILL BE SUBSIDING THROUGH EARLY SUN REMAINING BELOW 3 FT WITH
SLIGHT CHOP IN THE AFTN. WIND WAVES WILL MIX WITH A 10 SEC
EASTERLY SWELL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER OFF SHORE
AS PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW UP TO 15 KTS ENHANCED
EACH AFTN BY THE SEA BREEZE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FT THROUGH WED INTO THURS IN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY PUSH. A LONGER PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
WED AS A SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE BEGINS TO DOMINATE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH/REK
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DCH/MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
215 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTION
CHANCES AND PLACEMENT.
CURRENTLY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN BACK NORTHWEST
TOWARDS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. AN IMPULSE OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD...PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST RADARS INDICATE BACK EDGE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
FROM AROUND BOWMAN TO DICKINSON NORTHWARD TO STANLEY. TO THE WEST
OF THIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER EASTERN MONTANA UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE 16 UTC HRRR STILL INDICATES
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN MONTANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ROTATING INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. THUS WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
TO THE EAST...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS ALSO TRACKING ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE FAR SOUTHEAST FROM JAMESTOWN SOUTH
THROUGH OAKES IS THE ONLY AREA OF THE CWA INDICATING MINOR
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG. BUT WITH
CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE JAMES WILL KNOCK DOWN THE
MEAGER AT BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONGER CELLS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST...BUT OVERALL THE SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP SOME
LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AND UPPER LOW.
THE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON SUNDAY...KEEPING
THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. BUT THE
RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
PERHAPS ABOUT A 12HR TO 18HR WINDOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WHERE THERE WILL NOT BE A THREAT FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS A
WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW
QUICKLY RETURNS BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER SLOW MOVING
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SURFACE LOW
REFLECTION ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY. WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES RIDING OVER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG WITH SOME
JET STREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME ENHANCING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...EXPECT
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS
AND NOSE NORTH FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
THIS WOULD PRODUCE A WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN. UNTIL
THEN...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE SHORT TERM WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ON A DAILY BASIS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION FOR THE AFTERNOON MAINLY INCLUDE
POSSIBLE AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VIS DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM KISN-KMOT-KJMS...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL. WILL LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS
AT KISN THROUGH 21 UTC. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT NORTH
AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AFFECTING
KBIS...KMOT...AND KJMS. MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS AT KMOT-KJMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING LOW VFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE DROP SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AND COULD MAKE IT INTO KISN-KMOT DURING THE MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1238 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MOST OF THE CWA IS BETWEEN ROUNDS OF PRECIP AT THE CURRENT TIME
BUT A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ND WILL MOVE INTO
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SO FAR MUCAPE HAS
ONLY BEEN AROUND 500 J/KG IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...AND EVEN
LESS SFC BASED INSTABILITY. SO THINK WE WILL NOT SEE TOO MUCH
SEVERE UNLESS THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CLEARING IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. UPDATED POPS TO LOWER THEM IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND
THEN INCREASE THEM AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WITH PWAT
VALUES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IT SEEMS HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT AT LEAST WEST OF THE RED RIVER WE ARE SEEING A BIT
OF BREAK IN THE RAIN. RAP AND HRRR START BRINGING SOME PRECIP INTO
THE WEST BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LOWERED POPS THIS MORNING AND
RAMPED THEM BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING...BUT THINK THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS
PRECIP MOVES BACK IN FROM THE WEST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE AREA FOR ANY DESTABILIZATION BUT WILL JUST MONITOR FOR NOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE BEMIDJI AREA SHORTLY...AND THEN EXPECT A
BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY. ADJUSTED POPS/WX ACCORDINGLY. KEPT
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY UNTIL AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS HAVE BEEN
GUSTING IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING
SHOWERS...AND INCREASED WIND GUSTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY INCREASES
TODAY FOR ISOLD SEVERE POTENTIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAIN (2+ INCHES)
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE VALLEY. THUNDER/SHOWER CHANCES
WILL BE THE OTHER CHALLENGE. 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
(ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS A TAD DIFFERENT)...AND WILL USE A
ECMWF/GEM/GFS BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.
THE CURRENT (08Z) AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA HAS OUTRAN
THE INSTABILITY...AND WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS JUST AN AREA OF SHOWERS. BEYOND THAT...NOT QUITE SURE HOW
TODAY IS GOING TO UNFOLD. THE REGION REMAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND THE SFC INVERTED TROUGH (ALONG WITH THE INSTABILITY
AXIS) IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...LOCATED FROM THE SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND BY
00Z THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...MODERATE SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW
REMAINS EAST OF THE VALLEY. THIS ALL MEANS THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY GIVEN TIME. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...WITH AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FA. THUS...THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG AND ISOLD
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. BRIEF WEAK TORNADOES MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY.
ON SUNDAY...THE SFC LOW STRENGTHENS AND PROPAGATES NORTHWARD
THROUGH MINNESOTA. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL
COINCIDE WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE SHOWERS. MOST GUIDANCE PLACES THIS POTENTIAL JUST EAST OF
THE VALLEY...AND SUGGESTS 1-2 INCHES WITH ISOLD AMOUNTS OF 2-4
INCHES. THIS AREA RECEIVED THE MOST RAINFALL FROM THE LAST
SYSTEM...WHERE THERE WAS SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. GIVEN
WHAT OCCURRED WITH THIS PAST EVENT...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESF). CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH (NOT SURE
IF THE 2+ INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
FLOOD WATCH).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES AS MODELS
REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS A RESULT OF ENERGETIC FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE THERE IS
CHANCE POPS IN EVERY PERIOD. MODEL INCONSISTENCY WITH EVOLUTION OF
NORTHERN ROCKIES 500MB TROUGH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAINS...
CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY AND SO WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC POPS IN THE
FORECAST. A SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
STARTED OUT WITH A FEW HOLES IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING BUT THEY
HAVE QUICKLY FILLED BACK IN. GETTING SOME MVFR CEILINGS NOW ALONG
AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON. MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE OVER CENTRAL ND AND
THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THRU THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HIT
EASTERN ND WITH THE MOST RAIN AROUND 00Z SUN THEN SHIFT THIS INTO
NORTHWEST MN BY 06Z SUN. THINK THERE WILL BE A LOT OF LINGERING
CLOUDS AFTER THE RAIN BUT IF WINDS BECOME LIGHT THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME FOG AROUND. ONLY MENTIONED FOG AT KBJI FOR NOW AND LATER SHIFTS
CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS. MOST MODELS HIT KBJI WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN (POSSIBLY HEAVY) ON SUNDAY MORNING. NOT AS MUCH
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING THIS SECOND ROUND OR HOW FAR WEST IT MAY BE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1153 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
QUICK UPDATE AGAIN FOR POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND LATEST 15
UTC HRRR WHICH LIFTS CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH AND EAST TODAY. THEN POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE STATE. ALSO LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MOST AREAS WITH EXPECTED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST TODAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE WEST OF THE LOW WILL
INHIBIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...STRONG IMPULSE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING TO KEEP SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST. AS YOU MOVE
EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW THE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE
BETTER. BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION.
BEST FORCING THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT BUT WILL NOT
MENTION SEVERE AT THIS TIME. BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
A LITTLE FARTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE
BASED POPS ON CURRENT RADAR AND 13 UTC HRRR WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDER...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING...TO WATFORD CITY...KILLDEER...BEULAH...
BISMARCK AND LINTON AND NAPOLEON BY AROUND MIDDAY...AND CONTINUING
TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY UPDATED
THE HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS.
THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AHEAD OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADAR
MUCH QUIETER THAN FRIDAY EVENING...STILL SOME ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH AN EMBEDDED S/WV
IMPULSE...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LLJ. ELSEWHERE LIGHT ECHOS SHOWING
UP BUT NOTHING NOTEWORTHY.
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED WAVES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAIN
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH
AXIS WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL REMAINING SOUTH OF THE STATE. THE SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY OF ND WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS AS IT WILL BE NEAR THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS
ACROSS EASTERN SD.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE WEST INTO CENTRAL THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR IS PULLED AROUND THE UPPER LOW BACK EAST
INTO WESTERN ND. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS POSSIBLE FAR WEST LATE...MORE
FAVORABLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A DRY SLOT TO NOSE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER SUNDAY. MARGINAL CAPE/SHEAR VALUES SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION
WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE POSITION AND EVOLUTION OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY. THE LOW IS
PROGGED TO MEANDER A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
SUGGESTED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. CONTINUED TO
FORECAST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH DAY AS A RESULT.
THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS PROG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A DRYING/WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION FOR THE AFTERNOON MAINLY INCLUDE
POSSIBLE AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VIS DEVELOPING IN THE WEST WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL. WILL LIKELY ADD A MENTION OF
MVFR CEILINGS AT KISN THROUGH 10 UTC. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY
AFFECTING KBIS...KMOT...AND KJMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. POSSIBLE
MVFR CEILINGS AT KJMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
250 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER NW OREGON
TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY FOR ANOTHER CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH POSSIBLY A FEW
SHOWERS. THIS SECOND TROUGH WILL FORM A CUT-OFF LOW OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TRIGGER A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF SALEM MONDAY AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS
FROM THIS LOW ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN
RAIN WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHT WARMING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER NW OREGON EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS FEATURE SO FAR HAS BEEN CLOUDY
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH...IF ANY...RAIN
THUS FAR EXCEPT FOR A STATION IN THE WILLAPA HILLS THAT HAS MEASURED
0.02 INCH.
HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT DESPITE THE POOR RAIN-PRODUCING HISTORY...AS THE KLGX
RADAR IS DETECTING WEAK RETURNS OFFSHORE THE OREGON/WASHINGTON
BORDER...AND AFTERNOON HEATING MAY INCREASE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AM SUSPICIOUS THAT THE RETURNS OFFSHORE ARE MID
TO LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA...BUT DO NOT FEEL JUSTIFIED
TO REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY. HAVE REDUCED POPS THOUGH TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE AND CONFINED THE CHANCE NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER AND FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST RANGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE PACIFIC NW LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...DRAGGING A
WEAK FRONT WITH IT. CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS WITH A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD...AND FORM A CUT OFF LOW OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND EASTERN OREGON ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND
THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE A THREAT FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
A COLD POOL WITH MODELED 500MB TEMPS AROUND -22C WILL BRUSH SW
WASHINGTON AND NW OREGON MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING INSTABILITY
OVER THE AREA...AND THE THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. MODELED
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A CAP IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE MARGINAL CAPE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A SIMILAR
SET UP AS LAST WEEK IN WHICH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SPROUTED OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF CLARK COUNTY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL AND APPROACH PASS ELEVATIONS ON MONDAY...BUT
RECENT WARM WEATHER AND WARM ROAD SURFACES WILL LIKELY LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS
INLAND. HARTLEY
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
FURTHER EAST. SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW MAY GENERATE SHOWERS
ACROSS NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE A DRY DAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S
ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE NE PACIFIC
THURSDAY...SENDING SPOKES OF ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE FIRST SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A
SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL WEAKEN BEFORE IT PUSHES ONSHORE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MAY ENHANCE CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY.
GENERALLY EXPECT CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. HARTLEY
&&
.AVIATION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD HAS BROUGHT SOME
PATCHY MVFR CIGS TO THE S WA AND N OR COAST OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THESE SPOTS COULD ALSO SEE A LIGHT SHOWER AT SOME POINT
THIS AFTERNOON. VFR PREVAILS EVERYWHERE ELSE...WITH A 5000 TO 6000
FT CLOUD DECK IN PLACE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOST OF THIS EVENING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIKELY SPREAD
AN MVFR CLOUD DECK INTO THE COAST LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND...BUT THE
INLAND TAF SITES MAY BE A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS FROM
ROUGHLY 12Z TO 18Z. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ONSHORE TOMORROW.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A WEAK TROUGH MAY
SPREAD PATCHY MVFR CIGS IN BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TOMORROW...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT MOVE THROUGH
TERMINAL TOMORROW. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...SEAS ARE SITTING IN THE 6 TO 7 FT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MAY SUBSIDE ANOTHER FOOT OR SO THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW MODERATE W-NW SWELLS PASSING
THROUGH THE WATERS. VARYING DEGREES OF WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS...EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE FULL MOON IS GENERATING STRONG TIDAL FLUCTUATIONS...
RESULTING IN VERY STRONG FLOOD AND EBB CURRENTS.
THEREFORE...CONDITIONS ON THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR WILL BE HAZARDOUS
DURING THE VERY STRONG MORNING EBBS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALSO OF
NOTE ARE THE SIGNIFICANT MINUS TIDES EXPECTED AFTER THE EBBS ON
THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS. PYLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
249 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will impact the region
every afternoon and evening through Tuesday with temperatures
remaining on the cool side. Temperatures will then warm for the
rest of the week, with just a few mountain showers late in the
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...Convection has begun to expand in
coverage by mid-afternoon...at least over sections of northeast
and north central Washington where there is the most diurnal
heating. Expansive cloud cover over the extreme eastern portions
of Washington and most of the Idaho Panhandle...including the
Spokane area ...Palouse...and Sandpoint has had a much tougher
time generating showers due to limited heating and resultant
destabilization. Looks like most of the activity this evening will
focus around the current batch of showers and isolated thunder and
whether they can successfully migrate southeastward out of this
region of maximum instability/higher terrain and into a region
thats much more stable. The HRRR seems to think so...but its not
handling the expansive clouds and cooler air over the eastern
sections of the forecast area well so think its overstated.
Nonetheless will will keep the mention of showers into the early
evening generally north and east of a line from Omak to
Deary...with the majority of the showers expected to remain near
the Canadian border in NC and NE Washington. The trend for showers
should be a decreasing one as the next shortwave trough digs into
the BC coast with warming temperatures aloft ahead of it. This
should effectively increase the potential instability from the
northwest overnight. Suspect things will really taper off in the
overnight hours...while any clearing will contribute to the
formation of fog across the valleys of northeast Washington and
possibly into north Idaho.
For Sunday...we will see the chance of showers and thunderstorms
increase once again as the BC shortwave trough digs into the NW
corner of Washington and pushes an upper level front through the
region. The front should cross the Inland NW in the morning...with
little fanfare other than an increasing blanket of mid and high
level clouds. Behind the front we will see Lapse rates drop as a
result of daytime heating. This will bring MUCAPE values into the
500-1000 j/kg range. Model soundings show this instability will be
deep enough to support thunderstorms. Based on the location of the
deepest instability and southwest mid-level winds...most of the
thunderstorms will focus near the Canadian border and could impact
locations such as Republic...Colville...and Priest Lake. fx
Sunday night to Tuesday: An upper trough digs into the Pacific
Northwest. This will provide some with additional shower and
thunderstorm chances, relatively cool temperatures and breezy
conditions. Sunday night a cold front pushes east. A mid-level
disturbance comes on its heels and migrates across eastern WA and
north ID. At the same time the center of the upper low moves into
the Cascades overnight. This set-up provides some decent lift
across the region. Surface-based instability wanes through the
evening, but some elevated CAPE and a pocket favorable high level
total totals linger across north-central and northeast WA and
north ID. In tandem with a surface-trough arched from north ID to
central WA, this will provide continuing shower chances through
the night across the Cascade crest, the Okanogan Highlands to
northern Panhandle, as well as across the central and southern
Panhandle. Chances wane in the evening across the Spokane/C`DA
area and Palouse.
By early Monday the upper low is positioned near the east slopes
of the Cascades, before pivoting toward central/southern Panhandle
Monday night. Through this period a surface trough remains arched
from north ID to central WA. With lapse rates steepening and
convective instability increasing through the afternoon
(especially over central and northeast WA and north ID) these
features will provide a threat of showers throughout much of the
region. The lowest threat appears over the Palouse/L-C valley
through lower elevations of the central Panhandle where models
show a relative minimum in moisture/dew point values/instability.
The aforementioned showers will be possible early in the day
across the northern mountains and across the northern Basin
through Waterville Plateau, but the threat will increase here and
across the region in the afternoon and wane in coverage overnight.
There will also be some threat of thunderstorms in the afternoon
and early evening. The primary threat will be across north-central
and northeast WA and the northern Panhandle. Some thunder is also
possible near the Camas Prairie, but at this point the better
instability in this region remains southward toward the
Clearwaters. As for winds, gradients and mixing increases Sunday
night into Monday, starting from the west. This supports some
breezy conditions. Speeds are generally in the 10 to 20 mph range,
with gusts in the 15 to 25 mph range in the early afternoon and
early evening hours. Value abate some for the overnight/early
morning hours.
Going into Tuesday the upper trough axis shifts east and the
Inland Northwest moves to a north-northeast flow. A wrap-around
trough/deformation axis begins to sag in from the north (somewhat
similar to the evolution of the most recent system). As such this
will continue to provide a rain threat across the eastern third of
WA and north ID, while central WA to the Cascades will have
smaller threat. I increased PoPs for this time frame across the
east. There is some convective instability in the afternoon across
northern WA and the ID Panhandle, so I have a slight thunder
chance here too. /J. Cote`
Tuesday night through Saturday...The region will transition to
drier and warmer weather as an upper trough moves into southeast
Idaho. A shortwave ridge will be in control of the weather pattern
at least through Thursday night, until the next Pacific trough
approaches the Pacific Northwest. Medium range model solutions
diverge on the strength and track of the upper trough as it swings
inland on Friday. The more favored areas will be the Cascade crest
and the northern mountains but the 12Z GFS brings the base of the
trough through central WA which would bring the precipitation
farther south into the basin. For now the Friday/Saturday forecast
will lean toward the ECMWF with the focus on the northern tier.
Temperature will warm to slightly above normal readings with
valleys in the upper 70s to mid 80s for the end of the workweek.
Winds will be mainly light and terrain driven except for breezy
conditions that will follow a cold front on Friday. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
18z TAFS: Conditions have become showery vs widespread stratiform
rain over the extreme eastern portion of WA and the ID Panhandle.
Conditions at PUW SFF COE and GEG have responded with slowly
improving CIGS and VSBYS. We would expect all these sites to see
MVFR cigs improve to VFR levels between 20-22z based on
conditional climatology and radar/satellite trends. Confidence is
higher for GEG than at COE as cigs looks like they are lifting
over eastern Columbia Basin. Overnight all sites will see dry VFR
conditions which should persist through the end of the forecast
period. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 47 66 45 65 45 66 / 10 30 20 20 20 40
Coeur d`Alene 47 65 45 64 43 65 / 20 40 30 40 30 50
Pullman 44 64 42 62 41 64 / 0 30 20 20 20 30
Lewiston 51 72 51 69 49 71 / 0 20 20 20 20 30
Colville 50 65 46 63 44 70 / 40 50 40 50 50 30
Sandpoint 47 64 47 62 42 63 / 30 50 40 50 50 50
Kellogg 45 62 45 61 42 63 / 30 50 50 50 40 60
Moses Lake 53 73 49 73 50 75 / 0 10 10 40 30 10
Wenatchee 55 69 51 71 53 74 / 0 10 10 20 20 10
Omak 50 69 48 70 48 75 / 0 30 30 40 30 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
301 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY
AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. A WEAK WARM FRONT ARCS
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE KANSAS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
MAIN AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA SO FAR TODAY BUT HAS BEEN SLOWLY ADVANCING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT
HAS BEEN SLOWED BY THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS THAT KEEP FEEDING THIS DRY AIR INTO THE LEADING EDGE.
THE 14.12Z HI-RES ARW AND 14.16Z HRRR ARE BOTH IN AGREEMENT IN
HOLDING THIS ACTIVITY TOGETHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT LIFTING
IT NORTHEAST IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH THIS TREND IN
MIND...WILL SO A SLOW BUT GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY LATE EVENING WILL HAVE 60 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3RD OF THE AREA WHILE REMAINING DRY
ACROSS THE EAST.
AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
WYOMING AND COLORADO WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES WHILE TAKING ON MORE OF NEGATIVE
TILT. BOTH THE 14.12Z NAM AND GFS SHOW THE BEST PV ADVECTION IN
THE 500-300 MB LAYER STAYING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BUT SHOULD
STILL HAVE A PERIOD OF WEAK PV ADVECTION COME ACROSS LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BECOME VERY STRONG
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW CREATING STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO WESTERN IOWA WHERE AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING. THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT THEN SHIFTS NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE NOSE OF THIS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE WESTERN
SECTIONS AROUND 09Z OR SO AND BY 12Z THIS AXIS OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE AREA. EXPECTING TO SEE THE SEVERE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TRANSLATE
NORTHEAST WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BY THE TIME THE STORMS
ARRIVE IN THE AREA...THEY SHOULD BE ELEVATED AND WILL STILL HAVE
UP TO 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE 1KM TO WORK WITH. DESPITE
THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...THE SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK THAT GREAT IN THE
ELEVATED LAYER WITH ONLY AROUND 20 KNOTS SHOWN. THE BETTER SHEAR
LAGS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA UNDER THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE INCOMING JET CORE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO...BUT WITH THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
STORMS...NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT TO OCCUR TO
TONIGHT.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND THE NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ALL THE 14.12Z
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY 18Z SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT ABOUT TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE FRONT A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...SOME POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE OVER THE
EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ML CAPES SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET TO AROUND
1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AROUND 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR.
THE OTHER THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS SHOULD INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES
WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 3.5 KM. THIS SHOULD MAKE THE
CONVECTION EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
POSSIBLE. BELIEVE THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH AND NOT
TRAINING THAT FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE ISSUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS TEMPORARILY BUILD OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
RELOADING WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL STILL BE BACK OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET EJECTED OUT OF THIS
AND COME ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THE BEST PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHWEST BUT
AT THE LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT THAT GOES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
START TO COME BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS SHOULD WORK BACK
INTO CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND THEN TO ABOUT THE
IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG AND GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT. BETTER CAPE MAY IN PLACE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG
OF ML CAPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. 0-6 KM SHEAR LOOKS PRETTY
DECENT AS WELL WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS.
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME A THREAT AS
WELL. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 4 KM AND COULD
TRAIN WEST TO EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS AND THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY HINGE ON HOW
MUCH RAIN FALLS TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
THE COMPLEX THAT FORMS MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE VERY FAR TO THE
SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE WESTERN LONG WAVE
TROUGH. AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COME OUT OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH...SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
14.12Z ECMWF THEN SUGGESTS THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL START TO LIFT OUT
WHILE THE GFS CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
KEEPING SOME RAIN OVER THE REGION. THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT
SUGGESTS THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION AND A
FLASH FLOODING THREAT. WILL MAINTAIN 40 TO 60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES
AS LONG AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES
AHEAD OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. WIND
SPEEDS OF 16 TO 22 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS
POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FOCUS INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING NUMEROUS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN LATER TONIGHT
AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES. LOOK FOR VISIBILITIES TO FALL TO 2SM
IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND
1500 FT. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 KTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION AROUND MID MORNING ON SUNDAY
WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. PLAN ON
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1257 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS SEEM TO BE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITATION FALLING OUT OF A MID-LEVEL DECK IN ASSOCIATED WITH
ZONE OF WAA AND SOME MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY. 06Z NAM...LATEST RUN
OF RAP AND HRRR SEEM TO BE RELATIVELY CLUELESS. LOOKING FURTHER
UPSTREAM...AREA OF MAINLY STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
REMNACE OF MCS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA NOT IN A BIG HURRY TO
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SOME EVIDENCE
OF WEAK CONVECTIVELY INDUCED CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE. AGAIN
SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING DETAILS OF THIS ACTIVITY
VERY WELL WITH HRRR A BIT TOO FAR NORTH. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST INITIAL BAND OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY FALLING OUR OF MID-
DECK MAY MAKE IT A BIT FURTHER EAST THAT WHAT IS CURRENTLY
REFLECTED IN GRIDS. ACTIVITY FOR THE MOST PART VERY LIGHT...BUT AM
SEEING A FEW 45-50 DBZ RADAR RETURNS. ACTIVITY FURTHER UPSTREAM
APPEARS TO BE HEADING MORE TOWARD NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. GIVEN THAT
850 WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TOWARD
MID- DAY...WOULD EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY TO STAY FOCUSED OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN AS WE APPROACH MIDDAY.
GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS WILL BUMP UP POPS A BIT MORE ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I29
CORRIDOR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
UPPER FLOW ACRS NOAM IS QUITE AMPLIFIED FOR EARLY SUMMER. THE
LNGWV TROF POSN IS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH BROAD
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING CENTERED AT AROUNG 95W. THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WL
SHIFT EWD SOME THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THEN BUILD/SHARPEN BACK NWWD
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS AN ACTIVE PATTERN...
AND WL LIKELY RESULT IN ABV NORMAL PCPN. TEMPS WL VARY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF EACH SYSTEM AND DUE TO DAY TO DAY DIFFERENCES IN CLDS
AND PCPN...BUT WL PROBABLY END UP A LITTLE ABV NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
A MAJOR SHRTWV IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN THE BASE OF THE WRN
LNGWV TROF. THE SHRTWV WL SWING ARND INTO A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
EJECTS OUT OF TROF PSN...DRIVING A STG CYCLONE TOWARD SW ONTARIO
BY 00Z MON. CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM CENTER ARND WX GENERATED BY
THE CYCLONE.
STG ISENT LIFT WITH WELL DEVELOPED LLJ WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM IS FEEDING SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ACRS THE NRN
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY IS STILL LIMITED DUE TO
DEEPER MOISTURE GETTING SHOVED SWD BEHIND THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...
SO CONVECTION WAS WEAKENING AS IT MVS EWD. FARTHER E...SOME SHRA
WERE DEVELOPING OUT OF MID-DECK. THOSE WERE EDGING CLOSE TO THE
FCST AREA...AND WERE REACHING THE GROUND BASED ON SFC OBS. WL NEED
TO CARRY SPRINKLES ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...SHIFTG THE
AXIS NEWD WITH TIME. ECMWF ALREADY INDICATED THIS HAPPENING
YDA...SHOULD HAVE ADDED IT TO THE FCST BACK THEN.
CONVECTION COMING OUT OF SD FCST TO WEAKEN...BUT RADAR MOSAIC SURE
MAKES IT LOOK LIKE IT COULD AFFECT AT LEAST THE WRN PART OF THE
FCST AREA BEFORE THAT HAPPENS. WL LINGER SOME SLGT CHC POPS OVER
THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT...
AND BE READY TO UPDATE IF IT BECOMES APPARENT PCPN IS GOING TO
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA.
THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM DEALT PRIMARILY WITH STRUCTURING POPS.
STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN W/SW OF THE AREA TNGT AS THAT
IS WHERE LLJ WL BE DIRECTED AND WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY WL
RESIDE. STILL...LIKELY-CATEGORICAL POPS SEEMED WARRANTED FOR THE W
AS THAT AREA WL PROBABLY BE AFFECTED BY THE NE FLANK OF THE MCS.
CARRIED CHC POPS IN THE E.
THE MCS SHOULD WEAKEN/SHIFT OFF TO THE NE SUN MORNING. QUESTION IS
WHETHER/TO WHAT EXTENT REDEVELOPMENT WL OCCUR AS THE TAIL OF THE
MAIN SHRTWV AND COLD FRONT SURGE ACRS THE AREA IN THE AFTN. THE
NEGATIVE FACTORS ARE THE MORNING CONVECTION AND LIKELIHOOD OF
EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLDS ACRS THE AREA...AND HAVING THE DEEP MOISTURE
STILL TRYING TO GET INTO THE AREA FM THE SE. THE POSITIVES ARE THE
STG DYNAMICS AND TIME OF DAY OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO GET VERY DETAILED WITH POPS...BUT LIKELY POPS
SEEMED WARRANTED ALL AREAS AT LEAST SOME POINT IN THE DAY. MUCH OF
THE AREA IS IN THE SPC 5 PCT CHC OF SVR ON THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK. THAT SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN QUESTIONABLE INSTABILITY. BUT
IF INSTABILITY ENDS UP BEING GREATER EITHER DUE TO HIGHER DWPTS OR
FEWER CLDS...SVR THREAT COULD INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY GIVEN THE
DYANMICS SWINGING THROUGH THE RGN.
TEMPS SUN WL ALSO DEPEND ON HOW THE CONVECTION BEHAVES. A STG NWD
PUSH OF WARM AIR WL OCCUR E OF THE APPROACHING CYCLONE. THERE ARE
ALWAYSCONCERNS IN SITNS LIKE THIS ABOUT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MESSING
UP TEMPS. BUT WE ARE AT JUST ABOUT THE HIGHEST SUN ANGLES OF THE
YEAR...SO EVEN JUST AN HOUR OR TWO OF BREAKS IN THE CLDS SHOULD
CAUSE TEMPS TO SURGE UPWARD. RAISED MAXES ACRS ALL BUT LAKESHORE
AREAS. THE LAKESHORE IS TRICKY TOO...AS CHILLY TEMPS LIKLEY MOST
OF THE DAY WITH SELY/SLY FLOW UP THE LENGTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN. BUT
SOME WARMING IS POSSIBLE LATE DAY AS FLOW VEERS SWLY. THOUGHT WAS
THAT SLY FLOW ALONG THE LAKESHORE WON/T CHANGE UNTIL THE
EVENING...SO STUCK WITH CHILLY MAX TEMPS RIGHT AT THE SHORELINE.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE ENDING OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES OR REMOVED
THEM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG
THE LAKESHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY EVENING TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA MONDAY EVENING... AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. ECMWF SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO SOME CONCERN ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS WARM
FRONT JUST LINGERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
CONCERNED THAT MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH
CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECTED FRONT MAY
BE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS INDICATE WHICH COMPLICATES THE
MATTER ON HOW FAR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MAKE IT INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ALSO
OF CONCERN IS THAT THE ECMWF IS STARTING TO NOSE A 1028MB HIGH
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THAT COULD KEEP THE NORTH DRYER AT
TIMES THAN WHAT IS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. MONDAY SHOULD BE A
WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. DEW POINTS WILL
NOT BE BAD WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 50S...MAYBE SOME MID TO
UPPER 40S IN THE SANDY SOIL REGION. BEYOND THAT...WIND
DIRECTION...CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL COULD HAVE A BIG
IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FALLING INTO A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE...SEE 12Z GRB SOUNDING...WERE WEAKENING AS THEY MADE
THEIR WAY OUT OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AT MIDDAY. EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LLWS WILL BECOME AN
ISSUE OVERNIGHT AS 925MB AND 850MB WINDS INCREASE AND THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB AND
SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING
THE EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALONG WITH THE MVFR CONDITIONS...TO
SPREAD INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........ESB
SYNOPSIS.......SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....SKOWRONSKI
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG