Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 06/13/14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA

315 PM PDT WED JUN 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CONTINUED SLIGHT COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
ACHIEVING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST IN TULARE COUNTY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHERN CA EJECTS EAST OUT OF THE AREA. THE NAM INDICATES THE
HIGHEST MU CAPE VALUES ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIERRA CREST...TOPPING
OUT AROUND 700-800 J/KG. IN ADDITION...THE HRRR IS ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS IN ON THIS AREA OF THE
CREST...WITH CONVECTION ENDED AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS NUMEROUS AS YESTERDAY. FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO MID 90S ALONG THE VALLEY...TO THE 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN 5 AND 10
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME AND NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE MIDDLE OF JUNE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE ANOTHER
FEW DEGREES BEFORE THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY POSITIONED OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COASTLINE WILL DIG SOUTH INTO OREGON TODAY INTO TOMORROW...BRINGING
A COOLER AIR MASS TO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 DEGREES C THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON....RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL COOLING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. BY
FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY...BRINGING
ADDITIONAL COOLING. AS OF NOW...THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK LOOKS
TO BE FRIDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ALONG THE VALLEY FLOOR.

THE WEEKEND WILL SEE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND...AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY
BUILD OVER THE AREA. WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S...POSSIBLY INTO THE CENTURY MARK BY TUESDAY THROUGH THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SIERRA CREST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS.

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JUNE 11 2014...UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO COUNTY. FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 06-11 106:1979 71:1894 72:1918 47:1894
KFAT 06-12 107:1985 66:1998 73:1985 47:1952
KFAT 06-13 107:1949 69:1922 71:1985 47:1907

KBFL 06-11 109:1979 73:1963 75:1975 42:1913
KBFL 06-12 110:1979 63:1998 75:1979 38:1907
KBFL 06-13 106:1940 75:1907 76:1975 41:1907
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...RILEY/JEB
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS EUREKA CA

504 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BECOME MUCH LIGHTER AT THE COAST HEADING
TOWARD THURSDAY AS LOW CLOUDS RETURN TOMORROW NIGHT.

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNINGS 11-3.9 IMAGERY SHOWING A BLOSSOMING
OF STRATUS HEADED TOWARD THE COAST. GUIDANCE AND HRRR LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FIELDS INSIST THAT THE NEAR COAST WILL REMAIN CLOUD FREE
FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND THAT HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS SHAKY. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PUSH OF
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON. CAN`T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST THURSDAY
MORNING, OTHERWISE THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE DRY. CONTINUED TO
LEAVE MENTION OF DRIZZLE OUT FOR NOW, AS CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
REMAINS LOW. MAIN IMPACTS BESIDES THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AT THE
COAST WILL BE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES AND RESULT IN MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS. INTERIOR VALLEY HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP A GOOD 10 DEGREES EACH
DAY FROM TODAY TO THURSDAY WITH ONLY A VERY GRADUAL WARM-UP
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT/MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL
STILL BE AN ISSUE MAINLY FOR THE NORTH COAST SOUTH OF CRESCENT
CITY THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING, FOLLOWED BY SUNSHINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS, HOWEVER,
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. GFS AND
ECMWF WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK ON THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN. BOTH INDICATE AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON SAT...LEAVING NW CA IN
DRY WNW FLOW ALOFT AS A RIDGE PUMPS UP OFFSHORE OVER THE EAST
PACIFIC. MODELS DIVERGED ON THE HANDLING OF A COUPLE OF S/W
TROUGHS IN THE FLOW AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMING TREND
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECWMF SOLUTIONS HAS IT GETTING
MUCH WARMER MORE QUICKLY WHILE THE GFS HAS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA. THE GFS SCENARIO WOULD
SUPPRESS THE WARMING AND RESULT IN NEAR STEADY-STATE TEMPS. IF THE
ECMWF PANS OUT...INLAND AREAS OF NW CA COULD BE BAKING IN THE
100`S MID NEXT WEEK AS 500MB HTS PUMP UP TO 588DM AND A NEW
THERMAL LOW FORMS. INTERESTING SOLUTION AT THE END OF THE GFS RUN
WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE OVER CA AND A WEAK LOW OFF THE
COAST FOR DAYS 9-10. ALTHOUGH THIS IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD
THIS PATTERN WOULD BODE WELL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IF IT HOLDS...AND
IT IS SUPPORTED ALREADY BY HIGH CAPE VALUES OVER THE REGION.
JT/AAD

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A LICK OF
STRATUS NEAR POINT ARENA AS OF 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL
AIRFIELDS WILL COME TO END TODAY AS STRATUS ATTEMPTS TO SURGE FROM
THE SOUTH AND OFFSHORE CLOUD COVER CREEPS TOWARDS COASTAL
CALIFORNIA. IF CONDITIONS DON`T DETERIORATE BY THIS MORNING THEN
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SURLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH AS TO
WHEN CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO WITH MODELS
INDICATING DIFFERING OUTCOMES BUT IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE MOST
OF THE COAST INUNDATED WITH STRATUS BY 16Z.

DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WITH THE COASTAL STRATUS OVERNIGHT HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. EITHER WAY, IT IS POSSIBLE FOR MISTY CONDITIONS
TO MAKE SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. CEILINGS MAY LIFT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA, YET, ONSHORE
FLOW WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR COASTAL CLEARING TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FOR INTERIOR AIRFIELDS, EXPECT PATCHY VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. /KML

.MARINE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WERE INDICATING LARGE, STEEP SEAS
THROUGH THE NIGHT LAST NIGHT AND THUS EXTENDED THE HAZARDOUS SEAS
WARNING WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL MILES TO REFLECT THE OUTSTANDING SURFACE
CONDITIONS. SEAS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE BUT STILL
THINK THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BE FINE TO DROP OFF WITH THE NEXT
MARINE UPDATE.

AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL INTERRUPT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE PACIFIC RIDGE AND THE CALIFORNIA THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX TODAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS LEAVING SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THAT SAID, LOW END GALE CONDITIONS
SHOULD SUBSIDE INTO THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN THE FIRST REAL BREAK
IN THE WEATHER OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL BE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, HOWEVER, I STILL FEEL A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF
THE MODELS BRINGING CONDITIONS DOWN SO QUICKLY. AS A RESULT, I
INCREASED LOCALLY GENERATED WAVES FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY TO REFLECT
THE LAG IN SUBSIDING SEAS. THE END TIMES OF THE CURRENT MARINE
PRODUCTS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL BE LOW ENOUGH THURSDAY TO ELIMINATE THE NEED FOR ANY
ADVISORIES. THE ONLY THING I ANTICIPATE WE MAY POSSIBLY NEED FOR
THURSDAY IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GUSTY WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO.

THE BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG AS A NORTHWESTERLY WAVE
BUILDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTING LATER FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND BRINGING THE RETURN OF LOW END GALE CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION,
TROPICAL STORM CHRISTINA OFF OF THE MEXICAN COAST MAY GENERATE SOME
SOUTHERLY SWELL LATE IN THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE LONG PERIOD ENERGY
MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME BENDING AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA TO MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. /KML

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING PZZ450.

HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING PZZ450-455.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON PZZ470-475.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY PZZ455.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA

916 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014

.UPDATE...INCREASED SKY COVER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
AND ADDED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST TO THE SOUTHERN SJ VLY FOR THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ADDED TO THE SIERRA FTHLS
THIS EVENING NORTH OF TULARE COUNTY.

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA EARLY TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REDEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA CREST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW DRIFTS INTO ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING
A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS LATER THIS
WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING MESOSCALE PHENOMENA TAKING PLACE
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT BROKE THROUGH THE
INVERSION OVER THE HIGH SIERRA VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ARE
GENERATING QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING. MOST OF THESE STORMS ARE
DRY BUT IN A FEW LOCALITIES AS MUCH AS EIGHT HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN. (BUCKROCK WEATHER STATION). ALTHOUGH
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEAKENING...THEY WILL END UP DRIFTING
INTO THE FOOTHILLS MAINLY NORTH OF TULARE COUNTY THIS EVENING.
EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE CARRYING ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE STORMS INTO THE EASTERN SJ VLY THIS EVENING.

MEANWHILE...AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS IS BRINGING A
SHALLOW INTRUSION OF MARINE AIR INTO THE SJ VLY THIS EVENING.
WESTERLY WINDS HAVE GUSTED AS HIGH AS 46 MPH THROUGH THE PASSES
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VLY. THE WINDS HAVE ALSO PICKED UP DUST
AND CARRIED IT INTO THE SOUTHERN SJ VLY THIS EVENING. A SUSPENDED
DUST CLOUD MOVED INTO THE BAKERSFIELD AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING
AND REDUCED VISIBILITY TO 1 1/4 MILES AT MEADOWS FIELD AIRPORT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER THIS EVENING.
PATTERN SHOULD STABILZE AND QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
DRIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS.

.AVIATION...
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA CREST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 355 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA IS BRINGING SOME RELIEF FROM THE RECORD BREAKING HEAT
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA YESTERDAY. CURRENT 24 HR TEMPERATURE
TRENDS ARE RUNNING DOWN AROUND 3-9 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH THIS IS A
VERY DRY SYSTEM...INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW IS
SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA. WITH
THE LACK OF MOISTURE THERE COULD BE SOME LSOLATED DRY LIGHTNING
BUT NOT SUFFICIENT COVERAGE FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

NAMDNG5 AND HRRR HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH THE PASSES AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE
EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST SIDE OF THE
VALLEY THROUGH 2 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES ARE
PROGGED TO TRACK INLAND...MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A GENERAL TROUGHY PATTERN OVER THE REGION...CONTINUING A
COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND CLIMO BY
FRIDAY AND HOVERING NEAR NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. JUST A FEW
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE A DRY FORECAST.

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
PLEASE SEE SFOAQAHNX
!!!FORECASTER, PLEASE DELETE THE FOLLOWING AFTER INFERRING AQA COUNTIES
ISSUED: 06/10/2014 14:30
EXPIRES: 06/11/2014 04:00

THE VALLEY AIR DISTRICT HAS ISSUED AN AIR QUALITY ALERT FOR SAN JOAQUIN...STANISLAUS...MERCED...FRESNO...KINGS...AND THE VALLEY PORTION OF KERN COUNTIES FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO BLOWING DUST CAUSED BY WINDY CONDITIONS.

EXPOSURE TO PARTICLE POLLUTION CAN CAUSE SERIOUS HEALTH PROBLEMS... AGGRAVATE LUNG DISEASE... CAUSE ASTHMA ATTACKS AND ACUTE BRONCHITIS AND INCREASE RISK OF RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS. IN PEOPLE WITH HEART DISEASE... SHORT-TERM EXPOSURE TO PARTICLE POLLUTION HAS BEEN LINKED TO HEART ATTACKS AND ARRHYTHMIAS...ACCORDING TO THE U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY. CHILDREN AND ELDERLY PEOPLE ARE ALSO MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO CONSEQUENCES OF HIGH PARTICULATE LEVELS.

STAY INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. AVOID PROLONGED OR STRENUOUS OUTDOOR PHYSICAL ACTIVITIES TO REDUCE THE AFFECTS OF UNHEALTHY AIR.

!!!END AQA DELETE!!!

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS
SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 06-10 106:1986 65:1976 70:1939 46:1954
KFAT 06-11 106:1979 71:1894 72:1918 47:1894
KFAT 06-12 107:1985 66:1998 73:1985 47:1952

KBFL 06-10 107:1975 73:1976 74:1975 45:1954
KBFL 06-11 109:1979 73:1963 75:1975 42:1913
KBFL 06-12 110:1979 63:1998 75:1979 38:1907
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY CAZ089-091-092.

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DUDLEY
PREV DISCUSSION...JEB
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

852 PM MDT THU JUN 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM MDT THU JUN 12 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHILE
EARLIER SHOWERS OVER THE ADJACENT PLAINS HAVE SINCE ENDED. EXPECT
ANY SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO DISSIPATE BEFORE DRIFTING OVER
THE PLAINS UNDER A CAPPED AIRMASS. ONLY SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS
TO EVENING ZONES WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING BY MIDNIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 12 2014

A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT. STILL MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
THE REST OF THIS AFTN AND EVENING. NOT THUNDERSTORMS YET...BUT
HRRR APPEARS THE REGION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...SLGT CHC POPS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING IN MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN ZONE
36. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...TOO COOL AND STABLE FOR MUCH
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTN. MARGINAL FOR THE
URBAN CORRIDOR AS WELL BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE DENVER CYCLONE MAY
TIP THE SCALES TOWARDS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
DENVER. NOTHING AT THIS TIME...BUT 73/50 TEMP/DEWPOINT COULD
YIELD CAPES TOWARDS 1000 J/KG. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP IN WILL BE
ALONG THE CONVERGENCE LINE PRESENTLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
DENVER. HRRR STILL SHOWING A STRONG TSTM OR TWO OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE...SO WL GO WITH CHC POPS THERE WITH SLGT CHC ELSEWHERE. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER COLORADO ON FRIDAY WITH A
DRY AND SUBSIDENT AMS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15+ DEGREES.
LOWER LEVELS WILL DRY OUT WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN ZONES 48>51.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 12 2014

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOT CONTINUES FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.
AIRMASS FAIRLY WARM AND DRY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS
MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. MODELS STILL INDICATING A DRY
LINE EAST OF A STERLING TO AKRON LINE EARLY IN THE EVENING PUSHING
INTO KANSAS AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLES BY MIDNIGHT. LATEST NAM
STILL INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
FAR NORTHEAST CORNER...WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW POPS THERE.
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FAIRLY
MILD NIGHT EXPECTED MOST AREAS WITH THE BREEZY CONDITIONS ONGOING.
ON SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING INTO COLORADO WITH THE
CLOSED LOW OVER MONTANA. COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LATEST NAM AND
ECMWF INDICATING THE FRONT REACHING THE DENVER AREA AROUND 15Z
WHILE THE GFS INDICATING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT DENVER SOMETIME
AFTER 18Z. THIS TIMING WILL CERTAINLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON MAX
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. LATEST NAM AND ECMWF
GUIDANCE MUCH COOLER FOR DENVER WITH A HIGH OF ONLY 74 FROM THE
NAM AND 75 FROM THE ECMWF WHILE THE GUIDANCE MUCH WARMER WITH A
HIGH 88. BELIEVE THE GFS TO BE TOO SLOW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER NAM SOLUTION. MOISTURE AND LIFT TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE AREA INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BEST CHANCE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. BRIEF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STORMS ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. SHEAR FAIRLY WEAK...SO NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS. MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING INTO
EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE EVENING THEN INTO KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE STORM CHANCES MOVE NORTHEAST WITH THE TROUGH
DURING THE EVENING THEN EXITING THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES TO
THEN CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME RETURN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS FOR A BIT OF
STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPMENT. CHANCES LOW FOR NOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
GRIDS. ON SUNDAY...STILL SOME MODEL SIMILARITIES WITH A COOL AND
MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN THEIR DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WITH THE
DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE GFS
BEGINS A PROGRESSIVE SHIFT OF THE TROUGH EASTWARD WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GEM KEEP THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. GFS
CONTINUES WITH THE PROGRESSIVE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE TROUGH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN BUILDS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN MOVING IT INTO TOWARD COLORADO
BY THURSDAY. THESE OBVIOUS DIFFERENCES TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE IN ANY OF
THE SOLUTIONS REMAINS LOW...SO WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST AND KEEP LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH A
COOLING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 840 PM MDT THU JUN 12 2014

STILL A WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY STRETCHING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS EASTERN ADAMS AND DENVER COUNTIES WITH LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE EAST AT APA
AND DEN. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE A WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE AND WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWEST LATER TNT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HRRR HINTS AT SOME FOG
LATER TNT ACROSS WELD AND LARIMER COUNTIES BUT AT THIS TIME DOES
NOT DEVELOP ANY FOG AT DEN/BJC SO WILL KEEP TAF`S VFR. NO
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS
MOVING OVER FRONT RANGE.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU JUN 12 2014

SLGT CHC OF TSTMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT FLOODING
RAINFALL NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY ON THE PLAINS. BRIEF
MODERATE RAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT
ON STREAMS AND RIVERS. TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER...LIMITING THE
SNOW MELT.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...D-L
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
HYDROLOGY...COOPER/D-L

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

1004 AM MDT WED JUN 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM MDT WED JUN 11 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT OVER
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AT THIS TIME...IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTN. IN ADDITION...WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVER WRN CO WL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWFA THIS AFTN.
OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE DENVER AREA
AND BETWEEN AKO AND LIMON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO NERN CO. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WEAKER HIGHER BASED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...WITH GUSTY
WINDS...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STORM MOTION
WILL BE WESTERLY 15-20 KTS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED JUN 11 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING EAST ACROSS NEVADA...WHILE ANOTHER WAVE WAS MOVING QUICKLY
EAST ACROSS MONTANA. THIS NORTHERN BRANCH DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD FROM THE WYOMING/MONTANA BORDER ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOULD
REACH DENVER ROUGHLY AROUND NOON TIME WITH AN INCREASE IN
NORTHEAST WINDS AND DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
INCREASING INSTABILITY BUT AT THE SAME TIME WE WILL BE FIGHTING A
SLIGHTLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER AND CAP. AT THIS TIME...THINKING
THERE WILL BE A NARROW CORRIDOR RIGHT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
SHOULD BE WARM AND MOIST ENOUGH TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS
FOR SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH SOME EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION ALREADY NOTED IN UTAH AHEAD OF THE NEVADA DISTURBANCE.
SURFACE BASED CAPES ON THE PLAINS NEAR 1500 J/KG EXPECTED AS
DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S BEHIND THE FRONT...SO
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS IF CONVECTION
TAPS INTO THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EXISTING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS...AND PALMER
DIVIDE AREA...WITH LOWER POPS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST CORNER WHERE
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE TOO STABLE.

FOR TONIGHT...PASSING DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BRING AN END TO STORM ACTIVITY
LATER THIS EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP ON THE PLAINS...WITH FOG POSSIBLE
MAINLY IN THE FOOTHILLS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED JUN 11 2014

UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WILL
KEEP AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE PLAINS WITH POSSIBLE FOG IN THE
LOWER FOOTHILLS. MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP THE LOWEST LEVELS DRY OVER
THE PLAINS AND ONLY A STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO KEEPING THE STRATUS AROUND FOR MOST OF
THE MORNING THEN ERODING AWAY. HAVE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD THIS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. STRATUS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND AIRMASS MORE STABLE OVER
THE PLAINS FOR THE DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS. STILL SOME HINTS FROM THE MODELS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER LINCOLN COUNTY AND NORTH INTO LOGAN COUNTY...WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS OVER THIS AREA
OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. NOT MUCH MOISTURE EXPECTED SO LITTLE
TO NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. A DRY LINE WILL LIKELY SET UP
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THEN MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE
ANY STORMS CAN DEVELOP. EXPECT THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
SURFACE WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S OVER THE PLAINS AND IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER
WOULD BE SOUTH PARK...BUT THE FUELS THERE ARE STILL IN GREENUP
MODE...SO NO HIGHLIGHT WILL BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY AND INTO THE NEXT WEEK STARTS A PERIOD OF POOR AGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS. OVERALL A TROUGH PATTERN TO THE NORTH IN CANADA
AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THE ECMWF WANTS TO
KEEP US IN A MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER PERIOD AS THE TROUGH MOVES A
BIT EAST...WHEREAS THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE TROUGH OVER THE PACNW
LONGER AND PUT RIDGING ALOFT AND KEEP THE WEATHER PRETTY
STAGNANT AND WARM. HAVE USED A BLEND IN THE FORECAST... AM
GENERALLY EXPECTING TO HAVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE
SATURDAY MORNING.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 946 AM MDT WED JUN 11 2014

BASED OFF THE LATEST HRRR MDL RUN...TIMING FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DENVER AREA SHOULD START
20-23Z WITH A WEAKER ROUND POSSIBLE MOVING ACROSS THE URBAN
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. WL GO WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSTMS TODAY IN
THE 21-1Z WINDOW. MAIN ISSUES WOULD APPEAR TO BE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. NOT VSBY/CIGS
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHER BASED CONVECTION APPROACHING
FM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE NNELY SFC WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER 19Z AS
THE SFC LOW SHIFTS SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NOT SURE AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY NEED
TO WATCH FOR PTCHY FOG AROUND 12Z THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED JUN 11 2014

MOST STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS
OF RAIN WITH NO RUNOFF. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RUNOFF. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE IF A STRONGER STORM DEVELOPS IN A
BURN SCAR WHICH AT THIS TIME PROBABILITIES SEEM QUITE LOW.
OVERALL...WOULD EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN STREAM LEVELS FOR THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...COOPER
HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

455 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WILL AFFECT THE REGION AT TIMES
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...BUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A
WASHOUT. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THE SECOND HALF
OF SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOMETIME NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ARE SHOWERS TRAVERSING THE AREA
AT PRESS TIME...DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR LATER TONIGHT.

AREA OF SHOWERS DRIVEN BY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE/PVA IS MOVING FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE RAP MODEL IS HANDLING THIS WELL
AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A HARTFORD-
PROVIDENCE-BOSTON LINE. OVERALL...THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO
DIMINISH AS IT RUNS INTO THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND DRIER AIR
SITUATED OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND EXPECT IT TO EXIT THE
REGION AROUND 00Z.

WITH REGARD TO FOG POTENTIAL...NOTED A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATUS
AROUND 12Z TODAY INVOF NANTUCKET WITH VISIBILITY BRIEFLY DOWN TO
2SM. FEEL CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /ESPECIALLY NANTUCKET/
WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG OVERNIGHT...W/MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...INDICATIVE OF A WARMER
AIR MASS OVER COOLER SSTS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY BOTH MAV/MET
GUIDANCE.

AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST...A DEEPER LAYER OF
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT OVER THE INTERIOR. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE COLUMN OVER THIS AREA WILL BECOME SATURATED BY 06Z
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES. THERE IS
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH SHOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST OVER NEW YORK STATE BEGINS TO INDUCE A TROUGH
AT THE SURFACE WHICH NOSES INTO NW MA. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH DURING
THIS PERIOD...AND WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW AND MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION...EXPECTING INSTABILITY TO BE LIMITED. THEREFORE...
IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET CONVECTION GOING...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR. THERE IS A
GREATER POTENTIAL OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING...GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES.
WITH THE COMBINATION OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND ONSHORE FLOW...
EXPECTING TEMPS TO BE BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THU NIGHT-FRI
* SOME LEFT OVER SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY SAT...MAINLY EASTERN SECTIONS
* MAINLY DRY AND WARMER SUN INTO MON
* NEXT BEST SHOT FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUE INTO WED

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN BOUTS OF MID LEVEL LIFT...WHICH WILL COMBINED
WITH PWATS OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
THEREFORE...ANY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH A VERY LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT.
PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE SOME INSTABILITY WILL GIVE THE
ACTIVITY A BOOST. WILL ALSO BE DEALING WITH SOME FOG AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.

AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THINGS NOT LOOKING THAT GREAT. 0
TO 6 KM SHEAR GENERALLY UNDER 30 KNOTS WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER...WE CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IF CAPES CAN REACH UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE.

SATURDAY...

LOW CONFIDENCE ON SKY COVER AND HOW LONG ANY SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE 12Z
ECMWF IS BY FAR THE SLOWEST MODEL AND ACTUALLY LINGERS PRECIPITATION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WE WON/T GO THAT SLOW...BUT HAVE THE
CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING FOR EASTERN SECTIONS.
SOME SUN SHOULD EMERGE BY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT LOTS OF CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAIN ESPECIALLY CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 70S...BUT PERHAPS ONLY IN THE 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST IF FRONT MOVES SLOWER. AGAIN...THIS
FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AND WILL DEPEND UPON HOW FAST COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

SUNDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL RESULT IN A BEAUTIFUL DAY. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...BUT WEAK GRADIENT MAY RESULT
IN LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SO AFTERNOON
TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST...BUT
STILL A BEAUTIFUL DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

WHILE IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE HOT PATTERN...THE SETUP WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR WARM WEATHER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE. DECENT
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST TWO DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS BREAKING 80
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW A
FEW SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING...BUT PROBABLY WILL SEE A ROUND OR TWO OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW THE BEST SHOT FOR THIS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BY NO MEANS A WASHOUT BUT STILL SOMETHING WE MAY NEED TO
CONTEND WITH AT TIMES. ALSO...BETTER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THAN
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE... SO PERHAPS MORE IN THE WAY OF
THUNDER.

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR IS POSSIBLE BY 00Z OVER
ACK. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEST OF ORH IN -SHRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT... ANTICIPATING CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR FROM
SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA... WITH -SHRA POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND FOG PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AGAIN
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH SHRA/TSRA AND FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED
SHRA THU AFTN.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SCATTERED SHRA POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA THU AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LINGERING MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...EXCEPT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL THEY MAY PERSIST LONGER.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS.

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SCA SEAS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO ISSUE
SCA AFTER CURRENT ONE EXPIRES THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...MAY REDUCE VSBYS. THIS FOG
COULD ALSO LINGER INTO THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN 3 TO 6 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS. SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
SCA HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED IN THIS REGION. AREAS OF FOG WILL
RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LEFT OVER
SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL RESULT IN SOME 5 FOOT SEAS LINGERING ACROSS
PORTIONS OUR OUTER-ATLANTIC WATERS INTO SAT AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DO
EXPECT TO SEAS TO BE TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
WINDS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ256.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/LF
MARINE...FRANK/LF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

447 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ARE SHOWERS TRAVERSING THE AREA
AT PRESS TIME...DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR LATER TONIGHT.

WITH REGARD TO FOG POTENTIAL...NOTED A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATUS
AROUND 12Z TODAY INVOF NANTUCKET WITH VISIBILITY BRIEFLY DOWN TO
2SM. FEEL CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST /ESPECIALLY NANTUCKET/
WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG OVERNIGHT...W/MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION...INDICATIVE OF Q WARMER
AIR MASS OVER COOLER SSTS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY BOTH MAV/MET
GUIDANCE.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST OVER NEW YORK STATE BEGINS TO INDUCE A TROUGH
AT THE SURFACE WHICH NOSES INTO NW MA. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD REMAIN
TO OUR SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD...AND WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW AND
MARITIME AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...EXPECTING INSTABILITY
TO BE LIMITED. THEREFORE... IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET CONVECTION
GOING...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE INTERIOR. THERE IS A GREATER POTENTIAL OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING...GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. WITH THE COMBINATION OF CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS AND ONSHORE FLOW... EXPECTING TEMPS TO BE BELOW
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

DETAILS...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

SATURDAY...

SUNDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

THROUGH 00Z...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MVFR/IFR IS POSSIBLE BY 00Z OVER
ACK. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WEST OF ORH IN -SHRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AGAIN
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH SHRA/TSRA AND FOG ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED
SHRA THU AFTN.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SCATTERED SHRA POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA THU AFTN.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG PATCHES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. LINGERING MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCALES...EXCEPT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL THEY MAY PERSIST LONGER.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS.

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ256.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/LF
MARINE...FRANK/LF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

917 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014

.UPDATE...WE HAVE 2 TSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NOW...ONE WHICH
MOVED SOUTH FROM CENTRAL FL AND JUST S OF THE LAKE AND ANOTHER
STRETCHING ACROSS THE EVERGLADES INTO BROWARD COUNTY. EACH OF
THESE HAVE INITIATED NEW TSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SO IT LOOKS LIKE
IT MAY REMAIN ACTIVE INTERIOR-EAST COAST NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS TREND. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL
BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. /GREGORIA

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE NEAR KPBI EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS WERE ALSO ACROSS BROWARD COUNTY. EXPECTED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EAST WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF...IT
IS POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
MOVE TOWARDS KAPF OVERNIGHT. SO PUT IN VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AN EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE MAY MOVE INLAND AROUND 18Z...AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014/

UPDATE...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THE NEAR TERM
CONDITIONS...INCREASING POPS FOR THE PALM BEACH AREA AND
DECREASING POPS FOR THE GULF COAST AND FAR SOUTH. ALSO...IT IS
LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT, SO WENT WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED PLENTY OF MID/UPPER
MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH OVER THE STATE JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT
THE SURFACE...THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS ORIENTED FROM EAST TO WEST JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO FILL
(GFS INDICATES A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER NERN GULF BY
SATURDAY NIGHT). THIS WILL KEEP THE WET PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE SHORT- TERM PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS WITH
THE SW MEAN LOW-LEVEL (1000-700 MB) FLOW CONTINUING. ALTHOUGH THE
KINEMATICS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK WITH VERY LITTLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES NOTED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE (ISOLATED) STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS EACH DAY WITH MID-LEVEL OR 500 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -9.5 TO -11 DEG C. ADDITIONALLY...
CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MORE VULNERABLE OR SENSITIVE AREAS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SATURDAY WILL BE MORE OF A
TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEGINS TO LIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY IN PLACE
BEGINS TO FILL AND POTENTIALLY CUT OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE NERN
GULF...PLENTY OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND VERY
LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
DAY.

85/AG

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)

MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CONVECTION MAY SLOW DOWN SOME. WHILE
MODELS ARE COMING IN MAINLY DRY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA BY TUESDAY, HAVE
KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AD THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOONS.

/SI

AVIATION...
MORNING CONVECTION HAS LOCALLY STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE KEEPING
CONVECTION FROM FORMING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA FROM LEFTOVER
CONVECTION ACROSS THE KEYS...WHICH IS FURTHER INHIBITING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. LATEST HRRR STILL DEVELOPS SHRAS/TSRAS ACROSS BROWARD
AND PALM BEACH COUNTY STARTING AROUND 20Z DUE TO BETTER HEATING IN
THESE AREAS. THEREFORE DECIDED TO DELAY VCTS UNTIL AFTER 20Z FOR ALL
OF THE EAST COAST SITES.

MARINE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
LOCAL WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE WATERS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND ANY HEAVY
SHOWERS OR STORMS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 72 90 74 89 / 80 40 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 90 77 90 / 60 40 20 40
MIAMI 74 91 76 90 / 40 40 20 40
NAPLES 73 88 72 90 / 20 40 20 50

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSONVILLE FL

836 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014

.UPDATE...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT NEAR
AND EAST OF VALDOSTA. INTERESTINGLY...LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THIS
ACTVITY CONTINUES EASTWARD...GETTING TO JACKSONVILLE TOWARD 05Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING...FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE...AND HAVE HOURLY POPS SHOWING
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING TOWARD 03Z IN SE GA W OF I-95 CORRIDOR.

OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS AGAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS. INCLUDED VCTS IN THE
AFTERNOON AT TERMINALS.

.MARINE...WILL MAINTAIN EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE COMPONENT FOR WIND
SURGE OF 15-20 KTS LATER TONIGHT...WITH 10-15 KTS NEARSHORE COMPONENT.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED IN NEXT CWF ISSUANCE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 70 91 70 89 / 20 40 30 50
SSI 73 87 73 86 / 10 30 30 40
JAX 71 90 70 90 / 10 40 30 50
SGJ 72 89 72 87 / 10 40 30 40
GNV 68 91 69 88 / 20 40 40 60
OCF 69 91 70 88 / 30 50 40 60

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

WOLF/STRUBLE/NELSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

732 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE NEAR KPBI EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS WERE ALSO ACROSS BROWARD COUNTY. EXPECTED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EAST WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF...IT
IS POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
MOVE TOWARDS KAPF OVERNIGHT. SO PUT IN VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AN EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE MAY MOVE INLAND AROUND 18Z...AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
STORMS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)

85/AG

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)

/SI

MARINE...

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 72 90 74 89 / 80 40 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 90 77 90 / 60 40 20 40
MIAMI 74 91 76 90 / 40 40 20 40
NAPLES 73 88 72 90 / 20 40 20 50

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

1015 AM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FL EAST COAST...

CURRENT...AXIS OF THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE RESIDES ACROSS SOUTH FL
THIS MORNING WITH SSW TO SW SURFACE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS ECFL. VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHOWS A FAIRLY DENSE SWATH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS NEAR AND NW OF A LINE FROM LAKE KISM TO CAPE CANAVERAL.
WATERVAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC STREAMLINE/VORT ANLYS FIELDS SHOW A
COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW AT H30-H20 CTRD NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WEAKER
MID REFLECTION AT H50 WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG AND JUST
OFFSHORE THE SPACE COAST. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO PIVOT NE AHEAD
OUT AHEAD OF THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE
MID AND LWR MS VALLEY THIS MORNING.

RAOB DATA SHOWS DEEP LATER SW TO WSW FLOW UP THROUGH ABOUT
H60...WHERE WINDS SLACKEN AND THEN BACK TO SE/ESE TO THE NORTH OF
THE UPPER REFLECTION OF THE TROUGH OVER FL. LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR
OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS MOISTENED UP WITH MEAN PWATS INCREASING
TO 1.8"1/9" AREAWIDE.

REST OF TODAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN APPEARS TO BE WHAT EFFECT THE
THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER MAY HAVE UPON ONSET/TIMING OF LOCAL SEA/LAKE
BREEZE BDRYS AND RESULTANT IMPACT ON DIURNAL CONVECTION. WE WOULD
NORMALLY EXPECT WCSB-DOMINANT STORMS IN A FLOW REGIME LIKE THIS WITH
A LATE ECSB PINNED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
ONLY PROGRESSING SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
FARTHER SOUTH. OFTEN IN THESE CASES WE ALSO SEE PRECIP DEVELOP ALONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BDRYS (BTWN CLOUDY/SUNNY AREAS). CONVECTION IS
ALREADY STARTING AROUND THE LAKE AS WELL AS ALONG THE WCSB. THIS
SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT WHILE THE PRESENCE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
IS LEADING TO THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS /MOISTURE...IT IS ALSO HAVING
AT LEAST SOME POSITIVE IMPACT ON ASCENT.

WITH THE HIGH CLOUD DECK SLOWLY PROGRESSING TO THE NE...THINKING IS
THAT AN EARLIER ONSET TIME FOR SHRA/TS SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. MADE
SLIGHT TWEAK TO GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT IT WILL BE LARGELY
TRANSPARENT IN THE ZFP. ALSO INCREASED MORNING CLOUD COVER AND
SHAVED A DEGREE OFF MAXES WHERE THE CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY RESIDES.

.AVIATION...VFR GIVES WAY TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF MVFR CIGS AND
MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN +SHRA/TS. TAFS ALREADY REFLECT EARLIER ONSET TO
CONVECTIVE ONSET SO NOSIG CHGS NEEDED ATTM. WILL AMD AS NEEDED TO
SHOW WIND GUSTS/LWR VSBYS SHOULD SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE CELLS THAT
THEY WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVER AERODROMES.

.MARINE...S-SW WIND NEAR 10KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2FT OR A LITTLE LESS
PER WNAWAVE GUIDANCE. MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

FORECAST/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WX...ULRICH.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM EDT WED JUN 11 2014/

THU-FRI...WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST TO THE
CAROLINA COAST WITH MID LEVEL TEMPS COOLING TO -11/-12C AT 500
MB OVER EC FL...WHICH IS QUITE COLD/UNSTABLE ALOFT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED ACROSS SOUTH FL
SO THE RESULTING W/SW FLOW WILL DELAY ONSET OF THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE AND ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DOMINATE AND MARCH
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. STORM COVERAGE LOOKS HIGH ESP ON THU WHERE
WE HAVE DRAWN LIKELY (60 PERCENT) POPS ALL AREAS. A LITTLE DRIER
AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRI SO HAVE DRAWN 50
POPS BUT SOUTHERN SECTIONS MAY SEE EQUALLY HIGH COVERAGE AS THU.

THE RAIN WILL BE WELCOMED BY MANY ALONG THE EAST COAST WHICH HAS
BEEN MISSING OUT RECENTLY. BUT THERE WILL BE THREAT FOR STRONG
STORMS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...MOISTURE AND INTERACTION WITH THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS.

SAT-TUE...ALTHOUGH WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US THIS WEEKEND...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST US EARLY NEXT WEEK SO WEAKENING
STEERING FLOW SHOULD FOCUS SCT AFTN STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR WITH
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE EAST COAST.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING. DEEPER W/SW FLOW
DEVELOPS TODAY WITH HIGHER SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST COAST FROM MID TO LATE AFT.
CURRENTLY HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS...BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TEMPO
GROUPS FOR REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN THIS ACTIVITY DURING
THE AFT FROM 18Z ONWARD WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE.

.MARINE...
TODAY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OUT OF THE S/SW AND REMAINING BELOW 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 1-2 FEET. GREATER THREAT
FOR STRONG OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS A W/SW STEERING FLOW PUSHES STORMS TOWARD THE E/NE.

THU-FRI...OFFSHORE (W TO SW) FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. A LATE SEA BREEZE OUT OF THE SE
WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTN NEAR THE COAST ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE.
A HIGH COVERAGE OF STORMS...SOME STRONG...IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
OFFSHORE ESP THU AFTN AND EARLY EVE. SEAS 1-2 FT NEARSHORE AND UP
TO 3 FT OFFSHORE.

SAT-SUN...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
WATERS WHICH WILL DECREASE THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND ALLOW AN EARLIER
ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE ESP ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. AFTN STORMS
WILL TEND TO STAY OVER THE FL PENINSULA BUT SOME DRIFT BACK TOWARD
THE COAST SHOULD OCCUR NORTH OF THE CAPE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 90 72 88 72 / 60 30 60 30
MCO 92 72 90 71 / 60 20 60 20
MLB 90 73 89 73 / 60 20 60 30
VRB 90 73 88 72 / 60 20 60 30
LEE 91 73 90 73 / 60 20 60 20
SFB 92 73 91 73 / 60 20 60 20
ORL 92 74 91 74 / 60 20 60 20
FPR 90 72 89 72 / 60 20 60 30

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....KELLY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

500 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STORMS BEING SEVERE. A COLD FRONT OVER
NEBRASKA WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A LARGE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT AS
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...BULK SHEAR...AND ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT TRAIL THE MAIN COLD FRONT. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM MAINTENANCE...AND THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS COMPLEX...SO USED THIS ALONG WITH
NAM AND SREF FOR POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE COMPLEX SHOULD
EXIT THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. DEBATED ADDING FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DID NOT INDICATE ANY FOG AND
JUST HINTED AT LOW STRATUS. THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY BE
ABLE TO GET A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THAT SITUATION LATER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S NORTH AND NORTHWEST TO UPPER
50S EAST.

THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA AND SLIDE SOUTH AND THEN EAST. THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH A
FEW LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING DISSIPATING BY AFTERNOON LEAVING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS ON FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE
TRAIN FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH AMERICA.

AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE NOT DOING WELL. THEY TENDED TO BE TOO
FAR SOUTH WITH FEATURES/LOWER HEIGHTS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE NORTH
CENTRAL UPPER TROUGH. THIS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY BUT IS WORSE
TODAY. OVERALL THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING THE BEST. THE SREF
LOOKED TO BE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON THE SURFACE
AND WIND FIELD. THE GFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN...SREF TENDED TO DO THE
BEST WITH THE NAM TOO WARM AND THE UKMET TOO COOL ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SHOWN YESTERDAY MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. MID
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING. SOME ELEVATED CAPE WILL
BE IN PLACE WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON THE AMOUNT OF CINH. THE NAM
HAS AREA FULLY CAPPED WITH THE GFS LEAVING OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OCCURRING. THE CONSENSUS OUTPUT WOULD
SUPPORT KEEPING THE AIR MASS CAPPED. SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...AGAIN WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY BUT WILL
BEAR WATCHING. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LARGE PRESSURE FALLS
SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS. MODELS HAVE COME UP ON THEIR SPEEDS WITH
NEAR TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE WESTERN HALF FOR MOST
OF THE DAY INTO EARLY IN THE EVENING. RAMPED THE WINDS FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED.

MAIN SURFACE TROUGH STILL REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BUT WHAT LOOKS TO BE A SHARPENING DRY LINE IS SETTING
UP NEAR TO OR JUST WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. INSTABILITY AXIS AND
MID LEVEL LIFT ALSO SETS IN THE SAME AREA WITH LITTLE CINH IN THIS
AREA. SO ADD A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COLORADO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ON THE
MAXES WITH THE NEW GUIDANCE NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAR TO TAKE THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE NIGHT. MODELS DO DEVELOP A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. THIS PUSHES OFF
TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. AT
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THE LOW POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT ARE TALKED ABOUT IN THE NEXT
PERIOD START SHOWING UP HERE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THE OUTPUT LOOKING TO BE AFFECTING BY
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. ESSENTIALLY THE WEST TO NORTHWEST HALF LOOKS TO
HAVE A RIGHT RIGHT REAR QUADRANT AFFECT THIS AREA FROM LATE IN THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO MOVES FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.

VERY DRY AIR AT MID LEVELS ARRIVES EARLY IN THE DAY WITH THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. FRONT
IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER PROBLEM IS THAT
IN ADVANCE OF IT THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE SURGES SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AREA WITH EXTREMELY LOW DEWPOINTS EXCEPT RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT.

SO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
THE EML AND THE SURFACE DRY LINE IS LOCATED. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
LIFT PROFILE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREAS. SO CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THOSE AREAS AT THIS TIME.
IT WILL GET HOT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER
THIS AREA WILL HAVE TO EXPANDED. CURRENTLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF WILL
HAVE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES. IF THE FUELS WERE FAVORABLE THE WINDS
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WOULD PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL
SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY BECOMES GREATER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ESSENTIALLY
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SAME IDEA BUT DIFFER ON THE DETAILS. BUT
ESSENTIALLY NO MATTER WHICH WAY YOU WANT TO GO...OUTPUT SUPPORTS A
CONTINUED ACTIVE/WET PATTERN.

THE ONE TENDENCY THAT THE ENSEMBLES LOOK TO BE TRENDING TOWARD IS A
MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW...SHARP RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG/FAR SOUTH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A SLOWER AND
FURTHER SOUTH POSITION OF THIS TROUGH WHICH TENDS TO SUPPORT THE
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SOLUTION.

OVERALL THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT THE LATEST CRH_INIT RUN
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. AFTER FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY REMAINS DRY WHILE THE AIR MASS RELOADS LATER
THAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN A POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT. THIS
FRONT THEN REMAINS EITHER NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH AREA OR WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN A NEW
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRING THROUGH SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND JET LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME PERIODS.
THAT COMBINED WITH THE POSITION OF THE FRONT COULD MAKE FOR A VERY
ACTIVE PERIOD WITH THE QPF FIELDS INDICATING A MCS IN EACH OF THESE
NIGHTTIME PERIODS. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INIT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 446 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014

LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY ON RADAR WILL IMPACT KGLD NEAR 00Z.
STORMS WILL MOVE INTO KMCK IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTER THE STORMS
PASS THROUGH STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES TOWARD SUNRISE.
STRATUS WILL BREAK UP BY MID MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ALW
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...FS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

345 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

A surface cold front extended from eastern South Dakota to near
Sidney, Nebraska slowly moving south through the Northern High
Plains. An are of relative low pressure was developing over
southeast Colorado with an attendant inverted surface trough
extending northward toward the cold front. Regional WSR88D composite
reflectivity was already showing clusters of surface based
thunderstorms developing off the Palmer Divide as well as the Sangre
de Cristo regions in Colorado. Ahead of the frontal boundary,
southerly winds were in place with surface dew points in the upper
50s to around 60 degrees across the eastern Counties. Drier air
existed west of Highway 83 where dew points were in the mid 40s but
increasing.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

All of the morning NMM/ARW and NAM models in addition to several
runs of the HRRR indicate high confidence in convection developing
early this evening and spreading rapidly eastward into central
Kansas as a QLCS. Models indicate a marked in increase in layer
precipitable water through the late afternoon and evening, with
SREF QPF values in excess of an inch. MUCAPES around 2000 J/KG in
early afternoon were also forecast to increase to in excess of 3000
J/kg. This pre-storm environment thermodynamic in combination with
ample 30 knots of deep bulk shear will be conducive to gaining a
high confidence in a few rotating updrafts initially in our
northwest counties or basically anywhere from around Kearny county
through Scott City and Dighton. These hail producers will quickly
develop a cold pool generating widespread slab-like convection
eastward into central Kansas though mid evening with damaging wind
the highest threat followed by potential for hail and flooding from
very heavy rainfall. This morning`s flash flood guidance for 3 hours
was as low as 2 inches across portions of the area still outlined by
a flood watch, which will make flooding to occur easily in some of
the areas that have had in excess of 400% of normal rainfall in the
last week or more.

Beyond this evening`s high probability convection episode, north
surface winds will develop behind the convection as the front is
forced southward. Models have indicated potential for showers and
probably elevated storms continuing into in the far south east areas
into the early daylight hours on Thursday. Much cooler conditions
ion cool advection are expected Thursday afternoon with hghs
struggling through the 70s in most locations.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

A fairly active flow regime will persist across North America
through the extended period. On Friday, a broad upper ridge will
exist across the northern and central Plains to the north of a
subtropical high situated over northern Mexico. A strong upper
trough will be over the Pacific Northwest. The strongest mid/upper
level flow will extend from California into the the ridge over the
northern and central Plains. The 12z GFS and ECMWF both show a weak
disturbance moving out of Colorado and northern New Mexico toward
western Kansas Friday afternoon. There could be some widely
scattered thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain of
southeast Colorado that could move into southwest Kansas during the
late afternoon hours. Low level moisture will be fairly limited
across western Kansas during the day but by Friday night the models
show a low level jet developing with increasing low level moisture
transport from the southern Plains. This may be enough to sustain a
few thunderstorms eastward across the western half of Kansas
overnight.

On Saturday, the Pacific Northwest trough progresses east toward the
northern Plains while increasing west southwesterly flow over the
central Plains pushes a plume of warmer air from Colorado and New
Mexico out over western Kansas. A dryline is progged to move as far
east as around or just east of Dodge City during the afternoon while
a cold front drops into northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas.
Areas along the cold front/dryline and farther south along the
dryline will be the main focus for late afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms.

Through the remainder of the weekend into early next week we will
see additional chances for thunderstorms across the central Plains
as westerly flow aloft continues over the western and central parts
of the lower 48 states.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 58 78 55 83 / 90 10 0 0
GCK 57 77 55 85 / 60 10 0 10
EHA 58 78 58 88 / 40 10 0 10
LBL 58 79 57 87 / 60 10 0 0
HYS 58 77 53 83 / 90 10 0 0
P28 64 80 57 84 / 90 40 0 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH from 10 PM CDT this evening through Thursday morning
FOR KSZ030-031-046-065-066-079>081.

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Russell

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

207 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS ON FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO NEXT WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WAVE
TRAIN FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH NORTH AMERICA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT WED JUN 11 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS/FOG AND MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN THE
MORNING AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM AN OVERNIGHT MCS LINGERS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
OVER KGLD BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z AND THEY WILL MOVE OVER KMCK BETWEEN
02Z AND 04Z...SO INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO
INCLUDED A FIRST GUESS FOR WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE AMENDED ONCE STORMS DEVELOP
AND GROUND TRUTH CAN BE ACQUIRED. INCLUDED THIS TO GIVE A HEADS UP
THAT OUTFLOW WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY OVER THE TERMINALS. ONCE THE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS...LOW STRATUS OR FOG
COULD DEVELOP. MODELS ARE NOT HINTING AT ANY FOG AT THE CURRENT
TIME...BUT THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW STRATUS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. FOR NOW HAVE A SCATTERED LOW DECK AT KGLD AND A BROKEN
LOW DECK AT KMCK. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FOG
DEVELOP OR LOWER CEILINGS GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...THE NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS...AND THE COOLER AIR FILTERING
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS POINT...IT IS A LITTLE TOO FAR
OUT TO DETERMINE WHAT WOULD DEVELOP WITH NO HELP FROM MODEL
GUIDANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
CONDITIONS OVER THE TERMINALS IMPROVING WITH SOME FEW TO SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.

SHORT TERM...ALW
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...ALW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

127 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED JUN 11 2014

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME STORMS
BEING SEVERE. A COLD FRONT OVER NEBRASKA WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH
THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AROUND 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A LARGE COMPLEX OVERNIGHT AS
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...BULK SHEAR...AND ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT TRAIL THE MAIN COLD FRONT. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM MAINTENANCE...AND THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS COMPLEX...SO USED THIS ALONG WITH
NAM AND SREF FOR POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE COMPLEX SHOULD
EXIT THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. DEBATED ADDING FOG TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DID NOT INDICATE ANY FOG AND
JUST HINTED AT LOW STRATUS. THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY BE
ABLE TO GET A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THAT SITUATION LATER. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S NORTH AND NORTHWEST TO UPPER
50S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM MDT WED JUN 11 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FOR SATURDAY. STRONGER JET AND VORTICITY
POCKETS AT THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY ALOFT
WILL HELP WITH UPLIFT TO PROVIDE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND WILL BE COMPLETELY
THROUGH THE AREA BY THE EVENING.

UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME STAGNANT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A SHORT LIVED POCKET OF
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON DRY. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP MOISTURE
PROFILES IN COMBINATION WITH INSTABILITY RESULTANT FROM STEEP LAPSE
RATES BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS WELL AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUXES WITH THE SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 800
MB. IF THIS PATTERN VERIFIES...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT WED JUN 11 2014

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ALW
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...ALW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

910 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 910 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2014

Another quick update this evening to further delay precip into the
region. As expected, the better coverage of thunderstorms has
shifted south of the region into portions of TN. This has left only
very light showers across portions of IL and MO, which have been
making very slow progress and still had not entered western KY as of
this writing. Therefore, think it will still be several hours
before precipitation gets into the LMK CWA. Think the best coverage
may actually be across southern IN closer to the triple point of the
MCV where convergence/lift is maximized. Coverage will likely not be all
that great across central and southern KY, thus have trimmed pops in
these areas. All in all, looks like a very light QPF event across
the region, with a few areas likely not seeing anything more
than a few sprinkles tonight into Friday morning.

Issued at 605 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2014

The forecast is largely on track this evening, just made a few
tweaks to account for ongoing trends. Shortwave ridging has built
into the region for the time being, meaning any precip threat has
come to an end. Attention will then turn toward the west over the
next few hours as a shortwave trough and associated low pressure/MCV
work into the region. A few strong storms have been noted across
portions of NE Arkansas where a low-level theta-e axis resides and
associated stronger instability. This better thunderstorm coverage
should continue to work ESE along this axis this evening into
portions of TN. Further north across our area, still expect mainly
showers with a few embedded rumbles of thunder overnight. Have
slowed down the timing of this precip into the region by an hour or
two based on the latest HRRR which has a decent handle on ongoing
convection, otherwise the rest of the forecast looks on target.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2014

Other than a stray shower lingering in our far east, we should see a
quiet evening as brief upper level ridging takes over behind the
departing trough. A look at visible satellite imagery shows cu not
really becoming more agitated, and water vapor imagery shows drier
air working in from the west. Meanwhile, current radar only shows
one blip in Cumberland county so won`t even carry mention of
isolated showers as coverage is less than 20%. Temperatures are right
on track to top out right around 80 and in the low 80s.

As we move into the overnight, a cold front trailing from a potent
upper level system over the upper Great Lakes will approach, passing
through by mid afternoon on Friday. Expect widely scattered to
scattered showers/iso T along this boundary as it passes, with
numerous showers possible along the Tennessee border, where better
deep moisture will be present. Looking upstream at what is currently
going on compared to what model QPF shows would leave me to believe
that coverage may end up being on the lower side. Especially, if you
consider how poorly models have performed lately with QPF fields.
Nevertheless, with the frontal passage and at least some deep
moisture to work with, 30-50% coverage in most spots is reasonable.
Best timing will be from around dawn through midday across central
and western parts of the CWA. Showers/storms could linger into the
early evening east.

Look for lows tonight mainly in the 61-66 degree range. Highs on
Friday will be a bit tricky due to the frontal passage/cloud cover.
Will go aggressively cool in the eastern CWA where low clouds will
hang the longest and only top out in the low 70s. Elsewhere, the CWA
should see enough sun mid to late afternoon to find the mid and
upper 70s.

Surface high pressure and ridging aloft build in by Friday night
leading to a clear and very cool night. Have most lows dropping into
the 52-57 degree range! A few slightly cooler spots may be possible
in sheltered valleys.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2014

After a brief cooldown Saturday will begin a transition back to warm
and humid conditions across the region. High pressure at the surface
will begin to shift east and return flow will set up bringing
moisture back in to the area. Aloft ridging will build across the
southeastern CONUS. A low pressure system will form across the
Plains and track into MN Saturday through Sunday and its cold front
will approach the area through Monday. However, it is expected to
stall across Indiana, keeping the forecast area in southerly flow
through mid week.

Saturday looks to be the coolest day of the period, with the lowest
dewpoints as well. Highs will top out in the lower 80s. Sunday`s
temps will top out in the mid 80s with dewpoints rising back into
the mid 60s. An isolated shower cannot be completely ruled out
across the far south central Kentucky on Sunday, but think the
chance is fairly low, so will keep the forecast dry for now.

Rain chances will return next week as warm and humid conditions lead
to disorganized afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each
day. Afternoons will be quite muggy with highs topping out in the
upper 80s to around 90 with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s.

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 702 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2014

An area of low pressure will slowly push into the region tonight.
However, it appears as if the best coverage of precipitation will
remain south of the terminals (especially KSDF and KLEX), so will
only mention VCSH overnight into Friday for KSDF and KLEX. Will
continue with prevailing -SHRA at KBWG, but even that may be a bit
ambitious given upstream trends and could possibly be removed at the
06Z issuance.

Guidance continues to suggest some light fog at KBWG and KLEX
outside of any shower activity tonight, which makes sense given only
partly cloudy skies and light winds for at least the first part of
the night. Some lower cigs (around FL025) could also accompany the
front as is passes through, especially a few hours on either side of
sunrise Friday. Conditions should begin to improve from west to
east throughout the day on Friday, with winds turning more northerly
behind the front.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......KJD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

703 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 605 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2014

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2014

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 702 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2014

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......KJD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

712 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2014

.UPDATED...
Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Friday/
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2014

The closed deep layer cyclone that brought widespread convection on
Tuesday has opened into a full latitude trough...which was well
forecast by the models. The trough axis will slowly progress east
today...reaching a kmvn/kpah line around 18z. Along and ahead of the
trough axis...scattered to numerous showers and storms will occur
today. Across southeast Missouri...convection should be more
isolated as deep layer drying and subsidence gradually increases.

Weaker instability is forecast today...mainly due to slightly warmer
temps aloft. The RAP indicates very little if any buoyancy
today...while the GFS is only slightly more stable than Tuesday.
The combination of weaker forcing...weaker wind fields...and
slightly weaker instability should translate to lower coverage and
intensity of storms than Tuesday.

Clearing skies are expected this evening as subsidence and drying
takes place in the wake of the trough. However...moisture in the
near surface layer will remain high due to saturated soils and very
light winds. It appears likely there will be a recurrence of low
stratus and/or fog late tonight. Fog will be mentioned in the
grids/zones for late tonight over parts of the area.

On Thursday...a narrow deep layer ridge will move east across the
Lower Ohio Valley...keeping dry conditions for most of the day.
However...a nearly closed mid level cyclonic circulation will
approach southeast Missouri late in the day. The models look a
little suspect in keeping conditions dry downstream of the vort
center. Some showers and storms may reach se Missouri/srn Illinois
in the afternoon.

An unusually compact/vertically stacked cyclone will turn southeast
across southeast MO and western TN Thursday night. Some of the
models indicate heavy qpf with the system. Will tweak pops
upward...with some likely pops in parts of se Missouri. Due to the
small scale of the system spatially...the larger scale models
including the gfs and ecmwf may be having trouble with it.

On Friday...the system will weaken and slow down across Tennessee.
Highest pops will be in western Kentucky...but only in the chance
category. Northerly low level flow will bring drier air southward.

As for temps...widespread clouds and scattered precip will keep
highs below climo today...then return to climo Thursday with plenty
of sun. Northerly low level flow/clouds/scattered precip on Friday
will lower highs back below climo.

.LONG TERM.../Friday night through Tuesday/
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2014

Main forecast challenge early in this period centers around the
handling of an upper low that will likely be cut off from the main
westerlies later Friday and into the weekend. The deterministic
ECMWF seems like a reasonable compromise between the GFS (farther
north) and the GEM (farther se) with the low placement by 12z
Sunday. This would put the low over AL much of the weekend, and keep
most of the associated convection s/e of our forecast area. Still
will not rule out something stray in the afternoon, esp Sunday, as
things begin to warm and moisten up on the back side of a sfc high
that will be located over the East Coast.

By early next week, short wave energy may begin to affect portions
of the region as the westerlies dip a bit farther south into the mid
MS River Valley. Will begin to increase POPS into the chc category
as this energy combines with the increasingly moist and unstable air
over the region. Though the lower trop will be getting soupier with
time, lack of a focusing sfc boundary or sfc low should limit the
potential of severe tstms through the period.

.AVIATION...
Issued at 712 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2014

Areas of low clouds and fog gradually increased overnight. There
were areas of ifr conditions by 12z. Most of the ifr conditions will
end by mid morning as diurnal heating commences. Cigs will very
slowly rise through the mvfr category today...and vfr cigs are
likely by late afternoon.

Numerous showers from sw Indiana south across west KY will locally
reduce vsby to mvfr through the day. Some thunder will develop
today...mainly from the kevv/kowb areas south and east. The coverage
appears too small for inclusion in the tafs.

After vfr conditions most of the night...fog and stratus will likely
form again late tonight.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

Short term...MY
Long term...GM
Aviation...MY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

345 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2014

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Friday/
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2014

On Friday...the system will weaken and slow down across Tennessee.
Highest pops will be in western Kentucky...but only in the chance
category. Northerly low level flow will bring drier air southward.

.LONG TERM.../Friday night through Tuesday/
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2014

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

A very slow moving frontal boundary will cross the region through
the period. All sites should remain VFR through 10-11Z, then
become IFR and remain that way through 15Z. From 15-00Z cigs
should become MVFR with VCSH, then back to VFR after 00Z. South to
southwest winds aob 10 knots will gradually veer around to the
west to northwest with the passage of the front.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

Short term...MY
Long term...GM
Aviation...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

130 AM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A SPLIT FLOW THROUGH THE CNTRL
CONUS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NRN LAKES INTO NRN
ONTARIO AND LOWS LOCATED OVER SRN MO AND W CNTRL MANITOBA. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH OR TOWARD THE NRN
ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC INTO LAKE
SUPERIOR BRINGING LIGHT NE TO E WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. VIS/IR LOOPS SHOWED EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH UPPER
MI WHICH HAS HELPED KEEP INLAND TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT ENOUGH
FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH MIN READINGS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND.

WEDNESDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE HANDLING OF THE MO LOW
THAT LIFTS TOWARD SRN LOWER MI. THE ECMWF REMAINS FARTHER NW WTH THE
MID LEVEL AND SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED PCPN COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS/GEM
AND GRAZES THE ERN CWA WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. SINCE THERE IS ALSO SOME SUPPORT WITH THE
SREF...THE FCST INCLUDES SOME LOWER END(20-30)POPS FOR MAINLY LUCE
COUNTY. THE NAM AND A FEW HIGHER RES MODELS ALSO PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTIVE PCPN INTO THE FAR WEST. SINCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LIKELY A BIT TOO HIGH...PCPN WAS NOT MENTIONED. WITH 850 MB TEMPS
NEAR 13C...EXPECT MAX INLAND TEMPS OVER THE WEST HALF TO AROUND
80...WHILE LAKE BREEZES KEEP READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG
THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE SET UP ACROSS FAR E UPPER MI AT 00Z
THURSDAY...STEMMING FROM THE WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH SET UP ACROSS
LOWER MI AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON AND THE 500MB SHORTWAVE LINGERING
ACROSS LAKE MI AND E UPPER MI. ADDITIONAL PRECIP WILL LIKELY RANGE
FROM A TRACE TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY EXIT NE THURSDAY MORNING AS A STRONGER SYSTEM DIVES IN FROM
THE MAIN 500MB LOW SET UP ACROSS HUDSON BAY. WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL IN THE FCST FOR THURSDAY. WONDERING IF WE WILL BE ABLE TO
GET AS MUCH PRECIP AS BEING FCST OFF HPC /12Z/ WITH 0.25-0.33IN
12-18Z THURSDAY. WENT AHEAD AND DIMINISHED THE AMOUNTS
SLIGHTLY...STAYING WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE W HALF...AS IS TYPICAL WITH
THIS TYPE OF SFC LOW TRACK.

THE MAIN 500MB LOW STILL SPINNING TO OUR N WILL EXTEND A TROUGH DOWN
THROUGH W ONTARIO AND N MN AND WI BY 18Z THURSDAY...WHILE CLOSING
OFF. THERE ARE STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES...WITH THE 12Z RUN OF THE
ECMWF BEING THE FARTHEST S OF THE BUNCH. THE MAIN STORY WILL LIKELY
BE THE SAME. EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SWING ACROSS
THE CWA W-E THROUGH THE DAY...EXTENDING FROM THE SFC LOW SHIFTING
FROM NEAR THE ARROWHEAD OF MN AT DAYBREAK THURSDAY TO JUST N OF LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 18Z WHILE DEEPENING. THE SYSTEM STILL LOOKS POTENT
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
WITH STORM MOTION OF 20-25KTS...AND PW VALUES ONLY BRIEFLY TOPPING
OUT OVER 1IN...EXPECT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO BE MINIMAL. DRY AIR
WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS WILL NEED TO
BE EDITED IN OUR FCST AS WE GET SOME BETTER TIMING FROM THE MODELS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES OVER THE LADDER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS STILL SHOW 850MB TEMPS FALLING
TO 1-3C FOR FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT WELL BELOW THE 70S THAT
ARE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST SPOT /S CENTRAL/ MAY
GET ABOVE 70F. WNW WINDS OF 10-15KT AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER.

OTHERWISE...KEPT A MODEL BLEND GOING FOR MUCH OF DAYS 4-7. THIS
INCLUDED KEEPING THE E HALF OF UPPER MI DRY UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS OVER
THE W HALF SUNDAY MORNING...WITH WET WEATHER CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

WITH HIGH PRES AND LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR DOMINATING...VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
SHOULD STAY MAINLY UNDER 20 KTS IN THE STABLE MARINE LAYER THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF MODERATE WRLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS IS EXPECTED FROM THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

754 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE NORTHLAND AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.
RAIN CONTINUED TO FALL OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE RAIN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN INTO
BAYFIELD/DOUGLAS/WASHBURN COUNTIES WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY DRIVEN
BY A STANDING WAVE DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW DOWN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE RAP SHOWS THE SET UP FOR THE STANDING WAVE
BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE BY LATE EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND
WINDS DIMINISH.

WE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TONIGHT AND CLOUD
COVER...OTHERWISE FEW OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. WE`LL
HAVE TO MONITOR TEMP TRENDS CLOSELY WITH DEWPOINTS
LOWERING...WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND CLEARING SKIES. WE
COULD SEE SOME CHILLY READINGS OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

FOCUS FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE ON TIMING THE EXIT OF
THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A STACKED LOW CURRENTLY ROTATING OVER THE
FAR EASTERN TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD. AT 300 PM...RADAR IMAGERY WAS
SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP ACROSS THE MN IRON
RANGE/ARROWHEAD AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. THIS AREA OF
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LOW
RETREATS OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO ONTARIO.

LATEST RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL AND AREA WEATHER STATIONS ARE
REPORTING THAT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS
ACROSS KOOCHICHING...ITASCA...CASS...AND PORTIONS OF AITKIN
COUNTIES. BASED ON REPORTS OF MINOR FLOODING FROM LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AND SPOTTERS...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF KOOCHICHING AND ITASCA COUNTIES FOR RAPID RIVER/STREAM
RISES AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. THESE AREAS WILL SEE A FEW LINGERING
SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
RAIN.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE CLEARING LINE ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER
OF THE DULUTH CWA...FROM KBRD TO KBRD AND KSTC. THE CLEARING WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY PUSH EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES
INTO CENTRAL MN. THE RIDGING WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO THE WESTERN
ZONES...WHERE SOILS ARE VERY SATURATED...SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG
WORDING FOR AREAS IN NORTH CENTRAL MN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AN EXTENSIVE SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FRI NIGHT ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES WILL BE REPLACED BY AN INCOMING
LEAD S/W AND SFC TROUGH FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL USHER IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SAT
MORNING W TO E THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...A STRONG PUSH OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL
ADVECT IN ALONG THE NOSE OF A 40-50 KT LLJ. A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT
WILL SET UP ACROSS NRN MN AND SLIDE EWD INTO THE NRN WI/SRN LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH THE DAY SAT...AND THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THIS
FRONT WILL DENOTE WHERE THE POTENTIAL SFC-BASED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH...AND WHERE THE ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL MOST
LIKELY FORM ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE SFC LOW WILL START OFF
AS AN ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS AND MORPH SLOWLY EWD
THROUGH THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES AMONG
THE MODELS INDICATING HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE...EITHER WITH
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED LOWS ROTATING NEWD THROUGH THE REGION OR A SINGLE
SFC LOW STRENGTHENING AND LIFTING N/NEWD INTO NRN MN AND WRN
ONTARIO. THE SFC LOW/UPPER SHRT WV AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL
LINGER INTO SUNDAY. THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL BE MODEST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EITHER WEAK TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. PWATS WILL RISE OVER ONE
AND A QUARTER INCHES WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO PRODUCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMTS...EXCEEDING ONE INCH WITH
NUMEROUS LOCATIONS LIKELY APPROACHING 2 INCHES.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE
NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY AND MON
NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN BECOMES FAIRLY CHAOTIC INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK WITH MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE NEXT
SERIES OF SHRT WVS. HAVE KEPT WITH A CONSENSUS WITH REGARDS TO
PRECIP POTENTIAL...LEAVING CHC POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF RATHER CHILLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
AN E WIND OFF LS...CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL ONLY
REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S AROUND THE LAKE...AND 60S AND LOWER 70S
INLAND. LOWS SAT AND SUN MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER
50S. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S THROUGH THE WEEK...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. RAIN OVER FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL END THIS EVENING...AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL
RISE TO LOW END VFR THEN BECOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH THIS EVENING FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE NORTH SHORE WHICH WILL SEE STRONGER WINDS LINGER INTO TONIGHT.

SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER WESTERN AREAS
THAT WILL SEE WINDS DECREASE THE MOST.

FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS MUCH
LIGHTER THAN TODAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 43 72 50 59 / 20 0 30 90
INL 41 72 50 61 / 10 0 40 70
BRD 44 75 55 68 / 10 0 50 80
HYR 42 72 50 71 / 40 0 20 60
ASX 43 72 47 69 / 60 0 20 60

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ121-140>142-
146>148.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ143>145.

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MELDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

113 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

TODAY WILL BE WARM ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND ST CROIX RIVER VALLEYS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS. MEANWHILE A THICKER
DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER IN FAR
WESTERN MN. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TOGETHER WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS SHOWED A BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH AN MCS FALLING APART AHEAD OF IT IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS. THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE IR IMAGERY SHOW RAPIDLY WARMING
CLOUD TOPS WHICH SUPPORT THE WEAKENING TREND CURRENTLY SEEN ON
RADAR. THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS...WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS MN AND WI.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED. THIS INCREASE IN ABSOLUTE VORTICITY WILL
CAUSE THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY GRADIENT INTENSIFY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE SCALE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PV ANOMALY. SPC HAS INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO MUCH OF WESTERN MN. THE SHEAR PROFILE IS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE HAS A
COUPLE THINGS GOING FOR IT AS WELL. FIRST OF ALL...SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD GENERATE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY ACROSS
WESTERN MN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OFF THE RAP SHOW AROUND 1000J/KG OF CAPE...WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS
INDICATING DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. AFTER SUNSET THE
SBCAPE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE...BUT DYNAMIC DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE DURING THE 00-06Z PERIOD AS
MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL. THIS WILL KEEP A MARGINAL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH A FEW OF THE POST FRONTAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

IN THE POP GRIDS TRIED TO DEPICT THE TRANSITION FROM SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN
MN...TO ELEVATED POST FRONTAL PRECIP IN EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.
ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING WILL BE IN NORTHERN MN...WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS INCREDIBLY HIGH IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND TOTALS EXCEEDING AN
INCH...AND ALTHOUGH THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH ALONG
THE IA/NE BORDER...SHOULD SEE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TRAVERSE THE REGION WITH RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND A TENTH TO A HALF AN
INCH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

A BREEZY AND COOL DAY WILL BEGIN THE LONGER TERM AS A VIGOROUS
UPPER WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LAKES. WIND SPEEDS FROM 15
TO 20 MPH ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO
30 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH AROUND 70 IN THE TWIN
CITIES. FRIDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FA AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES BY. AN EVEN STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND REACH THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY WITH STORMS
LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT. PARAMETERS ARE CERTAINLY IN PLACE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE FA ON SUNDAY. THE THREAT
FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS RETURNS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTHEAST MN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WI AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IF TIMING
HOLDS ON THIS SYSTEM...IT CONCEIVABLE THAT MUCH OF THE FA COULD BE
DRY BY LATE IN THE DAY.

MODEL CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS WANTS TO BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD BRING A STRONG UPPER
WAVE OUR WAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ITS TOUGH TO SEE
THE ORIGIN OF THIS FEATURE BUT IT APPEARS IT MAY HAVE COME FROM MEXICO.
A MINOR WAVE IS SEEN IN THE GFS BUT IT STAYS SOUTH OF HERE AND
PUSHES THROUGH THE RIDGE IN THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SO...A
SMALL PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WITH SMALL POPS WORKING BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE
UNCERTAINLY TO THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD RETURNING TO SEASONAL LEVELS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY FOLLOWED BY RA/TSRA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE NORTHWEST AT 15-20KTS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD
DEVELOP AS WELL ONCE THE FRONT PASSES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER
IS TO THE WEST NEAR AXN/STC.

KMSP...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE BETWEEN 03-05Z...AND ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDER IS SMALL IT BEARS MENTIONING IN THE TAFS. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP...BUT SHOULD STAY ABOVE 1700FT. THE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT BY MID/LATE MORNING TO VFR LEVELS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS W AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS S AT 10KTS.
SUN...MVFR/TSRA EARLY...THEN VFR. WINDS W AT 10KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...BORGHOFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

545 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 536 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY FOLLOWED BY RA/TSRA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 20KTS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD
DEVELOP AS WELL ONCE THE FRONT PASSES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER
IS TO THE WEST NEAR AXN/STC.

KMSP...
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE BETWEEN 03-05Z...AND ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER IS
SMALL IT BEARS MENTIONING IN THE TAFS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP...BUT SHOULD STAY ABOVE 1700FT. THE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT BY MID/LATE MORNING TO VFR LEVELS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS W AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR/TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS S AT 10KTS.
SUN...MVFR/TSRA EARLY...THEN VFR. WINDS W AT 10KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

400 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

VFR EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. TODAY WILL BE MORE ACTIVE AND
COULD BRING SOME WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO AIRPORTS IN WESTERN MINNESOTA AS EARLY AS THE NOON HOUR AS
ACTIVITY MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. STILL...OUTSIDE OF
KAXN...MOST OF THE TAF SITES IN IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN
WI WILL REMAIN VFR AND PRECIP FREE THROUGH THE DAY. THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDER LOOKS BETTER THIS EVENING.

KMSP...

NO WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. THERE COULD BE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WELL WEST OF THE AIRPORT DURING THE EVENING RUSH...BUT
NOTHING SHOULD THREATEN THE AIRPORT UNTIL AFTER DARK 03Z-06Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR WITH MVFR -SHRA/TSRA EARLY. WINDS NW 15-20 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS BECOMING SE.
SAT...VFR EARLY THEN MVFR -SHRA/TSRA LATE. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

900 PM MDT THU JUN 12 2014

.UPDATE...

WE DECIDED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WIND SPEEDS ON HIGHER RIDGES OVER
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN MT GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL JET
WITH 40 KT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WITHIN 2000 FT AGL SEEN ON MODEL-
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WE ALSO RAISED LOWS A BIT IN SOME SPOTS ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT USING THE 18 UTC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BASED ON A
RELATIVELY WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS
NEAR THE GROUND AND IN RESPECT TO PASSING CLOUDS. SIGNIFICANT MID-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING IN THIS REGIME OUT
AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL ARRIVE FRI...AND THAT MAY
EFFECTIVELY CAP ATTEMPTS EVEN AT ELEVATED CONVECTION IN MOST AREAS
TONIGHT. WE THUS KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY
RELEGATED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LIVINGSTON...HARLOWTON...ROUND-
UP...MILES CITY AND BAKER AREAS ON THE EDGES OF MID-LEVEL CAPPING.
CONVECTION WHICH FORMED OVER THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA RANGES EARLIER
THIS EVENING STRUGGLED TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...LENDING
CREDENCE TO THE IDEA THAT CAPPING IS TOO STRONG FOR MUCH SHOWER OR
STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MANY PARTS OF THE PLAINS LIKE BILLINGS. THAT
IS IN CONTRAST TO HRRR SIMULATIONS THOUGH...WHICH CALL FOR A BATCH
OF ACTIVITY EVEN MOVING THROUGH BILLINGS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT
DOES NOT APPEAR THAT/S A VIABLE OUTCOME GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...AND
SO WE HAVE NOT ALTERED OUR GOING POP FORECAST RIGHT NOW. SCHULTZ

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BECOME MORE
ACTIVE WITH A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER OUR FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS SOME CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL SHEAR OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND UP INTO NORTHWESTERN MONTANA. BUFKIT INDICATES
DECENT CAP OVER MOST OF FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
MESOSCALE AND SHORT TERM MODELS DO NOT PAINT MUCH IF ANY QPF OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...REDUCED COVERAGE OF POPS WITH EARLIER
MORNING UPDATE WHICH INCLUDED REMOVING THEM FROM BILLINGS
VICINITY. I BELIEVE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
MOUNTAINS THANKS TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...ESPECIALLY THE CRAZY
MOUNTAINS...AND MOVE OFF OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING.
BUT MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES AND MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED.

FRIDAY...VERY DYNAMIC SCENARIO SHAPING UP FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
RESPONDING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN NE WYOMING WILL BRING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST MONTANA. SHEAR PROFILES
WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE AS THE 500 MB JET AHEAD OF TROUGH WILL
CROSS INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA BY LATE AFTERNOON. I EXPECT TO SEE
TWO GENERALIZED AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS. ONE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA FROM PARK COUNTY INTO WHEATLAND COUNTY WHERE JET
DYNAMICS WILL AID LIFT. CAPE WILL BE SCARCE THOUGH SO I DO NOT
EXPECT SEVERE STORMS THERE. THE SECOND AREA WILL BE SE MONTANA AND
NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING WHERE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...A STRONG COLD FRONT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALL
COMBINE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING FOR GENERATING INTENSE
CONVECTION. I RAISED TEMPS A BIT FOR PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN SE MONTANA.

SATURDAY...AS TROUGH MOVES OVER OUR REGION COLD AIR IN MID LEVELS
WILL RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INDUCED LIFT. EASTERN ZONES
WILL ALSO BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF SOME LINGERING JET DYNAMICS AS
WELL. SO SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY...BUT SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
LIMITED DUE TO INSUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BT

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES EMERGED EARLY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...ON MON...AND CONTINUED THROUGH THU LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE
TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. NOTED THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWED A FAIR
AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT AS WELL FOR THE EARLIER 00Z RUN.

MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR SUN...HOWEVER...WITH AN UPPER
LOW MOVING NE OF NE MT AND SOME PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN ZONES. A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED THE PACIFIC ENERGY FOR SUN
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN NIGHT. FRONTOGENESIS WAS NOT OVERLY STRONG
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MODELS DID SHOW SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE.
GFS HAD INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WITH LIMITED CAPE. SO THE FORECAST
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. SOME OF
THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 70S WERE IN GOOD SHAPE.

THE MODELS THEN DIFFERED IN THEIR HANDLING OF A PACIFIC SYSTEM
MOVING IN FROM BC ON MON. THE LATEST ECMWF CUT OFF A LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WHILE THE GFS HAD A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA WITH A
CUTOFF LOW N OF THE BORDER. THE ECMWF ROTATED THE PACIFIC NW
CUTOFF TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH WED AND HAD IT OVER THE AREA ON
THU. THE GFS DUG PACIFIC ENERGY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUE AND
THEN BUILT AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO THU. THUS
THE ECMWF HAD A MUCH WETTER FORECAST FOR THE AREA THAN THE GFS.
ALSO THE ECMWF SUPPORTED POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUE AND WED.
MADE ONLY MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WHICH HAD
SCATTERED POPS. THE ECMWF WAS MUCH COLDER THAN THE GFS FOR WED AND
THU AS WELL. MAINTAINED THE FORECAST OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IN ADDITION...700 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORTED THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW EARLY SUN AND EARLY MON...AS WELL AS MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. WILL NEED TO KEEP WATCHING MODEL TRENDS FOR SOME
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS. ARTHUR

.AVIATION...

A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WEST OF A
RED LODGE TO LAVINA LINE. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE AT THE
SURFACE AS THE SUN SETS. HOWEVER AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS EAST OF BILLINGS INCLUDING MILES CITY
AND SHERIDAN LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. IN SHERIDAN
WINDS MAY TURN OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND GUST TO 35 KTS OVERNIGHT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THE TIMING OF THESE GUSTS WILL BE ERRATIC AND MAY
LAST INTO THE MIDDLE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. CHAMBERS

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055/078 049/065 047/073 051/072 051/071 050/072 052/074
13/T 45/T 23/T 34/T 44/T 33/T 32/T
LVM 047/073 041/063 040/070 044/071 044/068 042/070 044/075
25/T 34/T 23/T 44/T 44/T 33/T 32/T
HDN 053/081 050/067 047/074 049/075 051/072 046/074 051/077
13/T 55/T 33/T 34/T 44/T 43/T 32/T
MLS 054/081 053/067 048/073 052/075 053/072 051/073 053/074
24/T 34/T 22/T 23/T 44/T 43/T 32/T
4BQ 054/083 051/067 047/073 050/075 051/074 049/074 050/075
14/T 55/T 32/T 23/T 44/T 44/T 33/T
BHK 048/078 051/066 047/071 049/072 051/069 049/070 049/071
23/T 44/T 22/T 23/T 44/T 43/T 33/T
SHR 051/079 047/062 043/072 046/074 047/071 044/071 047/074
13/T 44/T 22/T 24/T 44/T 43/T 33/T

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

351 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

18Z SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS WITH AVAILABLE REMOTE SENSING
DATA REVEALS THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SANDHILLS REGION...AT THE NORTHERN DOOR OF KLBF. 19Z HAND
ANALYSIS INDICATED A TONGUE OF 60+ TD/S ARCING NORTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WHEELER AND GARFIELD
COUNTIES...WITH OTHER 60+ TD/S NOTED POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ALONG AND WITHIN THE PLATTE RIVER BASINS. TEMPERATURES AS OF 19Z
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA AND IN KVTN...TO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT. AVAILABLE
NEAR TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FETCH OF MOISTURE
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE FRONT THIS EVENING...WITH THE CAP BEING
BREACHED AFTER 23Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TREND OF THE NEAR
TERM CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HAS BEEN TO THE EAST...WITH THE
LATEST /15-16Z/ RUN OF THE HRRR NOW INDICATING THE ONLY CONVECTION
FIRING IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN HOLT COUNTY AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
WHEELER COUNTY. THE LATEST RAP13 SHOWS A SIMILAR TREND...BUT
SLIGHTLY MORE AMBITIOUS WITH FIRING CONVECTION BY 21Z. WILL FOLLOW
THE EASTWARD TREND OF THE NEAR TERM SOLUTIONS AND CUT BACK POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND EAST CONSIDERABLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WE WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATER
THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FIRING OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF EASTERN COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO A EASTWARD ADVANCING
SOUTHERN ROCKIES SHORT-WAVE. THE AVAILABLE NEAR TERM MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE EVENTUAL MERGER OF STORMS INTO A EASTWARD
PROPAGATING MCS THAT MAY BRUSH OUR FAR SOUTHWEST...BUT THE TREND OF
THE MODELS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER SOUTH...SO WITH THAT STORM
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ARE FADING AS WELL. IF THE CAP IS
BREACHED AND STORMS FIRE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...STEEP LOWER TO MID
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE MODERATE INSTABILITY CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...A DRY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC PROFILE WOULD
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTY TSTM WIND. FOR THE OVERNIGHT...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH LIGHT WIND AND CLEARING CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. WITHIN THE POST
FRONTAL REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S IS FORECAST...WITH HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...AHEAD OF NEXT LARGE LONG WAVE TROUGH CARVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR
US STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET CONVECTION WISE. THAT
WILL CHANGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
QUICKLY TRANSPORTS GULF MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO REGION. SOME MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PRESENT...BUT THE NOSE OF THE JET AND BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME THUNDER THOUGH...SO WILL
CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AT THIS POINT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

THE BETTER CHANCE WILL COME SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
SHOULD ROUGHLY EXTEND ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR EWING TO COMSTOCK TO
CURTIS BY VERY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS CAP WEAKENS...AND DECENT UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. GOOD
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
SOME HEALTHY SB CAPES /NEARING 5000 J/KG/ AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT
CREATING GOOD SHEAR...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES NEAR 45 KTS.
MODELS THEN AGREE THAT AN MCS SHOULD EVOLVE...WITH THE BULK OF
THIS ACTIVITY PUSHING EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING.
WILL KEEP SOME POPS GOING FARTHER WEST HOWEVER...AS STILL DECENT
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND ELEVATED CAPE COULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY...WITH THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH STILL REMAINING TO OUR NORTHWEST. FRONT WASHES OUT
MONDAY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTHWEST BACK INTO
THE AREA. MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF
SUPPORTING A POTENT SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING OUR AREA. GFS NOT AS
STRONG WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM OR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...SO WILL
KEEP POPS 30 PERCENT OR BELOW AT THIS TIME.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

FOR THE 18Z KLBF AND KVTN TAFS...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE GENERALLY
TIED TO THE ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS REGION OF NEBRASKA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE HEART OF THE
SANDHILLS...WITH THE FRONT CROSSING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO NORTHERLY AT KVTN...BUT AT
KLBF...WILL SEE A TRANSITION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO
WESTERLY...THEN NORTHERLY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. THERE IS ALSO AN AREA OF MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS THAT IS
BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE DAKOTAS...WHICH HAS BEEN IMPACTING KVTN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH
THIS STRATUS WILL EXTEND...AS WELL AS HOW LONG IT WILL REMAIN ATOP
KVTN. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING THUS FAR WITH THIS
STRATUS...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL...BUT FOR NOW THESE
CEILINGS SHOULD BE LIFTING AT KVTN AROUND 21Z...AND WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD NOT IMPACT KLBF. LAST CONCERN
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS THE POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
FAR EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KONL AND KBBW.
THE FORECAST MODEL CONVECTIVE TREND HAS BEEN EAST TODAY...SO STORM
CHANCES ARE DECREASING.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

RIVER LEVELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE NORTH
PLATTE...SOUTH PLATTE AND PLATTE RIVER BASINS. THIS IS DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEKEND AND RAPID ROCKY MOUNTAIN
SNOW MELT. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT
TERM...WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING....BUT THEN DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR
THURSDAY AND MUCH OF FRIDAY. RIVER LEVELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RECEDE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...JACOBS
HYDROLOGY...JACOBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

346 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES A CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION...AS WELL AS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
MONTANA AND WYOMING. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A ~110KT JET STREAK NEAR
MAINE AND A ~55KT JET STREAK OVER WYOMING. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
OVER OUR AREA MAXES OUT AT AROUND 40KTS NEAR 29000FT AGL PER 12Z
SOUNDING DATA FROM KLBF AND KOAX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AS
WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE AN
AREA OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO...AND AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE EXISTS OVER
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. A WARM FRONT /
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS NOTED EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SURFACE
LOW INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND A WEAK DRY LINE EXTENDS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
KANSAS. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA REMAINS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS A RESULT.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS
OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...CLEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 06Z TONIGHT...AND MOVING
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TONIGHT...WITH THIS SURFACE LOW THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
BY 00Z FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...THE WARM FRONT / STATIONARY BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW...WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR MUCH OF OUR CWA BY 06Z TONIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH BAROMETRIC
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA POST-FROPA DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY.

LOWER TROPOSPHERIC CONVERGENCE AND RESULTANT LIFT ALONG THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEAR AS THROUGH THEY WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME WHAT LITTLE CIN WILL BE IN EXISTENCE ACROSS THE
AREA AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...QPF FIELDS FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN...AS WELL AS SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM THE 1KM WRF-NMM...1KM WRF-ARW AND HRRR ALL
SUGGEST ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR CWA AROUND 00Z...PERHAPS AS
EARLY AS 23Z. THESE DATA DO NOT SUGGEST THE CONVECTION WILL BE
OVERLY WIDESPREAD ...PRIMARILY BECAUSE THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE AND THE BULK OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE OMEGA WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF OUR AREA...BUT IT CERTAINLY APPEARS HIT AND MISS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME SETS OF GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION COULD INCREASE IN SPATIAL COVERAGE
PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AS A SMALL-SCALE PERTURBATION
DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN KANSAS...SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE. GIVEN ALL THIS...WENT AHEAD ~20% POPS
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STARTING AT 23Z THIS EVENING...WITH POPS
THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 70% ACROSS OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN CWA
00-06Z. POPS ARE THEN TAPERED OFF TO NEAR ZERO HEADING INTO THE
DAY THURSDAY.

ENHANCED LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...WITH SURFACE DEW POINT
READINGS NEAR 60...ALONG WITH INCREASING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES AS THE SHORT WAVE BRUSHES OUR AREA TO THE NORTH...SHOULD
PROMOTE RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO
NEAR 3000J/KG WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP LAYER BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF ~25KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. GIVEN ALL THIS...IT CERTAINLY SEEMS POSSIBLE A FEW OF THE
UPDRAFTS COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND WILL CONTINUE SUCH WORDING IN THE HWO.

ALTHOUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CLEAR THE
AREA TONIGHT...A TRULY COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS WILL NOT
LIKELY INFILTRATE OUR AREA UNTIL THE DAY THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS SHOULD BE REALIZED TONIGHT
WHEN COMPARED TO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT. THE
INFILTRATION OF A COOLER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS WILL THEN
PROMOTE COOLER TEMPERATURE READINGS ON THURSDAY WHEN COMPARED TO
TODAY...WITH THURSDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM REMAINS WITH PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGES NEEDED/MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH IT REMAINING DRY DURING THE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IN UPPER LEVELS OVER THE PLAINS...SET
UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH
THE ROCKIES FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BE MAKING ITS WAY ONTO THE PAC NW COAST. THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY...THESE FEATURES SLIDE EAST...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVING RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA...ENDING UP TO THE EAST BY
FRIDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
PATTERN ON THURSDAY NIGHT
...WITH CONTINUED LIGHTER NE/E WINDS...BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE
EAST FRIDAY...WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE WEST. STILL LOOKING AT A
REBOUND IN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH NEAR 80 IN THE
EAST TO MID 80S IN THE WEST.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS THE PERIOD WITH THE NEXT
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE
SHOWING THAT ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PAC NW
HAVING SHIFTED EAST IN CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE
MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER. A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH AN 50-ISH+ KT LLJ IN PLACE. SOME MODELS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT ALL
ARE IN AGREEMENT /THE EC IS DRY/...SHOWING THE AREA CAPPED WITH
BETTER CHANCES FURTHER WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...ALONG THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE ZONES OF THE LLJ. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY...SO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION
GOING AFTER 06Z. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY COULD LINGER INTO THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT WOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THIS PERIOD LIES WITH ANOTHER SURFACE COLD
FRONT/DRY LINE APPROACHING FROM THE NW/W. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/PERHAPS EARLY
EVENING...DEPENDING ON CAPPING...BEFORE CONTINUING ITS TREK E/SE
THROUGH THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
PERIOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER...WITH MODELS SHOWING A GOOD COMBO OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR. WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND IN COMING MODEL RUNS.
THINKING THAT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY WOULD MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE BY BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY...LEAVING THE REST OF THE DAY
DRY. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...HIGHS ON SAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOK TO
REACH INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN ON
SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM NEAR 80 NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STILL SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH A GENERALLY ZONAL PATTERN IN PLACE IN
THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...AND PERIODIC DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH. LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING/LOCATION THIS FAR
OUT...SO KEPT POPS LOW...HARD TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE. HIGHS LOOK
TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR...GENERALLY RANGING FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NORTH
TO MID/UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY DURING THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME.

CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE 4000-5000FT AGL WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A BROKEN CLOUD DECK NEAR 15000FT
AGL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE PASSAGE
OF A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LATER TODAY. AT THIS TIME...THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION BEING REALIZED IS TOO LOW FOR INSERTION INTO THE
TAF...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT VCTS AND SUCH
HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE TAF 00-03Z. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL THEN QUICKLY COME TO AN END AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL START THE TAF PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHEAST...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE CLEARS THE
AREA...AND THEN BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
POST-FROPA. PROLONGED VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN RA
CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS EVENING SHOULD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BE REALIZED.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...BRYANT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

914 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SIERRA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
NEVADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETREAT BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...ONE OF THE MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION DAYS IN ALL OF 2014
SO FAR TODAY, WHICH IS NOT REALLY SAYING MUCH FOR HOW THIS YEAR HAS
BEEN ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU CONSIDER THE COVERAGE OF TODAY`S ACTIVITY.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FIRST, THEN OVER
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND EVENTUALLY IN SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
THE ACTIVITY OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA EVENTUALLY PROPAGATED
NORTHEASTWARD AND ACTUALLY PRODUCED SEVERAL MEASURED GUSTS IN AND
AROUND BISHOP UP TO 44 MPH. MOST OF THIS WAS OUTFLOW AWAY FROM THE
ACTIVITY. LIGHT RAIN WAS BRIEFLY REPORTED AT THE AIRPORT IN BISHOP,
HOWEVER THE TOTAL WAS ONLY A TRACE. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA AND WHITES HAS WEAKENED AND SINCE WHATEVER ACTIVITY WAS LEFT
OVER THE SIERRA HAD PUSHED BACK WEST OF THE CREST, I REMOVED THE
MENTION OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HERE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AS THINGS SHOULD HAVE STABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF THE ACTIVITY EARLIER
TODAY. AS FOR LINCOLN COUNTY, POPS WERE ACTUALLY INCREASED HERE AS
ACTIVITY MAY GO AT LEAST ANOTHER 3-5 HOURS IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS
AND HRRR MODELS. THERE WAS AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WE
NOTED ON LAPS DATA THIS EVENING SOUTHWEST OF ALAMO AND THE HIGHEST
CAPE VALUES WHERE IN THAT AREA IN LINCOLN COUNTY. IN ADDITION, AS
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW HEADS EAST, IT SHOULD STILL HELP INDUCE
LIFT. OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWING ANOTHER VERY
WARM TO HOT DAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT
THE LATEST CHANGES TALKED ABOUT ABOVE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 4-8 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15Z THROUGH 20Z WEDNESDAY,
FAVORING CONFIGURATION 4, BEFORE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASE TO 8-14 KTS FAVORING CONFIGURATION 1. GUSTS TO 20 KTS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 10-14K FEET ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY SHOULD END
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE CLEAR TONIGHT WITH WINDS
5-10 KTS FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTER 21Z MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END BETWEEN 02Z AND
06Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 8K-14K FEET AT
MOST WITH WINDS FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 240 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY WHICH WAS MOSTLY CLEAR. SURFACE OBS SHOWED GUSTY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. WEAK WAVE NEAR POINT CONCEPTION THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES DOWN A
FEW DEGREES AND REDUCING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE SIERRA IN ITS
WAKE. BY THURSDAY...INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT TROUGH COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SCOUR OUT
LINGERING MOISTURE...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST STATIONS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
OVERALL FORECAST. TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FRIDAY
EVENING/SATURDAY MORNING WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS STATES BY THE
AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE IS STILL INDICATING UP TO 5-7
DEGREES OF COOLING FOR SATURDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER ON
SATURDAY COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND WE MAY NOT MIX FULLY...THINK THE
AMOUNT OF COOLING SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS IS OVERDONE. DECIDED TO
KEEP CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS IS WITH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BEYOND MONDAY DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE
ECMWF DEVELOPS A FAIRLY ROBUST RIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST AND
DROPS TROUGH INTO NORTHEASTERN NEVADA/NORTHERN UTAH. THE GEM AND
DGEX AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH THE ECMWF. THE GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND...HAS A CUTOFF LOW UNDER CUT THE RIDGE SETUP JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS LEANING TOWARDS A
LESS AMPLIFIED VERSION OF THE ECMWF. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA WE COULD SEE TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM
LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...MORGAN/STUMPF

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

127 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

UPDATE TO ADD A MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
EMMONS...LOGAN...MCINTOSH...DICKEY AND LAMOURE COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THESE COUNTIES WITH A
BUILDING CUMULUS FIELD AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S.
THESE COUNTIES HAVE HAD THE MOST SUNSHINE AND THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS THROUGH 1830 UTC DEPICT INCREASING SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
ACROSS FAR EASTERN SIOUX...EMMONS AND INTO LOGAN COUNTIES. IN
ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN
SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...BACKED NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW RAISES THE THREAT LEVEL FOR TORNADOES.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1024 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 15 UTC. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
FOLLOWING THE 13-14 UTC RAP/HRRR...WHICH ALSO SUGGEST GREATER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE US HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
NORTH. DO EXPECT LIGHTNING STRIKES TO BECOME MORE FREQUENT WITH
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE FAR SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE CONVECTION
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. AREAS OF RAIN
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. SHOWERS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING OVER THE JAMES RIVER BASIN
WHERE A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED FOR THE MOMENT. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN STILL APPEARS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

ONLY ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

CONVECTIVE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WITH A
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS MANITOBA TO
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THEN EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS
JAMESTOWN/BISMARCK...AND LINKING TO ANOTHER LOW OVER THE BORDER OF
NE/WY/CO. MEANWHILE AT UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LOW WAS OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSES/SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAD BEEN MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
MONTANA...WYOMING...AND THE DAKOTAS.

THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS DEPICT CONTINUOUS ENERGY IMPULSES
MOVING FROM MONTANA/WYOMING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY...AND EXITING
THE DAKOTAS LATER TONIGHT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS...AND WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THUS EXPECTING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...WITH AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS WITH TIME.

CURRENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES ELEVATED CAPE THIS MORNING IN THE
JAMES VALLEY AREA COINCIDENT WITH THE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MONTANA MOVING EAST CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE
FORECAST CAPE AT 180 AGL.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. BY NOON IT IS FORECAST TO
BE NEAR FARGO/WAHPETON AND COMPLETELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STATE BY
EVENING. ELEVATED CAPE TODAY IS FORECAST TO REACH ONLY 200-800 J/KG
WITH LIMITED BULK SHEAR. ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PUT THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF NORTH DAKOTA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THE MAIN AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO MINNESOTA BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE DECREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH CLEARING
SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

THURSDAY WILL BE A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CHARACTERIZE THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

RETURN FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
TROUGH ENTERING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH HIGHER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MEANDERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY
MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AND
CEILINGS LIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT
KDIK/KISN TONIGHT.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1238 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

MINOR POP AND RAINFALL AMOUNT ADJUSTMENTS THIS AFTERNOON. RAISED
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHICH HAS SEEN MORE SUN AND
LOWERED SLIGHTLY ACROSS FAR SOUTH WITH CONCERNS ON WHETHER CLOUDS
WILL BREAK OUT. SURFACE LOW NEAR ABR SO STILL THINKING BEST SVR
THREAT WILL BE IN THE ND/MN/SD BORDER VCNTY THEN ENE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE RAIN
CHANCES/COVERAGE AND SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR
POP TWEEKS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
WITH FUTURE UPDATES. OVERALL THOUGHTS ON RAIN AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
REMAIN THE SAME AS EARLIER FORECASTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED FROM EARLIER FCST ISSUANCE. FOLLOWING THE RAP
CLOSELY. SFC LOW STILL NR WAHPETON 21Z TIME FRAME AND THIS IS THE
BEST AREA/TIME FOR ANY SVR.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

FOCUS TODAY IS RAIN AMOUNTS AND CHC OF SVR WEATHER IN SRN FCST
AREA. POTENT 500 MB WAVE IN CENTRAL MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST AND
INTENSIFY OVER ERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTN/EVE. AS IT
DOES SFC LOW WILL INTENSIFY OVER CENTRAL-NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD WAHPETON ND BY 21-23Z PERIOD
AND THEN EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THERE. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THERE THAT
AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT REGION
FROM BISMARCK THROUGH JAMESTOWN TO FARGO-GRAND FORKS THEN TO
BEMIDJI REGION. SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF GRAND FORKS. NOW
FROM FARGO-PARK RAPIDS SOUTHWARD...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD OCCUR
PROVIDED GET SOME HEATING TO GENERATE A ROUND OF STRONG-SEVERE
STORMS 21Z-01Z PERIOD. RAP MODEL SHOWS SITUATION QUITE WELL I
BELIEVE WITH SFC LOW LISBON ND AREA 20Z THEN TO DETROIT LAKES AT
23Z. HOP WRF/SPC SREF/RAP ALL HAVE MUCAPES IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE
JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF SFC LOW AND RAP HAS VGP IN THE .3-.35
RANGE JUST EAST OF SFC LOW IN THE LATE AFTN. THIS FOLLOWS IDEA
FROM SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK ISSUED NR 06Z IN HAVING A 5 PCT TORNADO
RISK AREA NR THE ND/SD/MN BORDER REGION. DID FOLLOW WFO ABR LEAD
AND MENTIONED SEVERE STORMS IN GRIDDS FOR LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE IN
THIS REGION. HPC QPF STILL MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN MODEL QPF DUE TO
RELATIVELY QUICK PERIOD OF 1.4 INCH PWATS. SO FOLLOWED FROM OTHER
OFFICES AND USED BLEND OF HPC QPF/SUPERBLEND MODEL QPF. THIS
AVERAGED THE LOWER HPC AND THE HIGHER END SREF/SUPERBLEND QPF. MAX
AREA OF 1 TO 1.50 INCHES STILL SEEMS REASONABLE IN THE JAMESTOWN-
MAYVILLE-BEMIDJI REGION. BUT AT THE PRESENT IT SHOULD FALL OVER A
PERIOD TIME AND NOT PRODUCE EXTREME RUNOFF ISSUES. IF STORMS FORM
IN CITY LOCATIONS THAN OF COURSE COULD HAVE BRIEF RUNOFF ISSUES
OVER CONCRETE...WITH MORE ADVISORY SITUATIONS. THUS NO AREAL FLOOD
WATCH ISSUED. RAIN AREA WILL MOVE EAST SLOWLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OVER ERN ND EARLY THURSDAY AND IN THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE FRI NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS FRI NIGHT FROM THE WEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...00 UTC MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS
(GFS/ECMWF/GEM) ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH 00 UTC SUNDAY...
DIVERGING MARKEDLY THEREAFTER IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHORT-WAVES
IN PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW. BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A STRONG 500 HPA TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF DRY SLOT PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
MORE PRECIP WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW LATER SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF MONDAY APPEAR MOSTLY DRY AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST BECOMES INCREASINGLY MESSY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
GFS/ECMWF 500 HPA WAVE TRAIN MOVES ABOUT 90 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE.
WILL FOLLOW ALL BLEND POPS WHICH SHOW LOW END CHANCES MOST PERIODS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO BIG WARM-UP ON THE HORIZON WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION. THERE WILL
BE SOME POCKETS OF MVR CIGS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE TAF SITES ATTM. MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE IN THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY...AND
FARGO IS WITHIN THE AREA OF GREATEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS SO INCLUDED
IN THE TAF FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...WILL
SEE MAINLY SHOWERS AT THE OTHER SITES...WITH OCCASIONAL TSTMS IN THE
AREA.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/ROGERS
AVIATION...HOPKINS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

927 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED FROM EARLIER FCST ISSUANCE. FOLLOWING THE RAP
CLOSELY. SFC LOW STILL NR WAHPETON 21Z TIME FRAME AND THIS IS THE
BEST AREA/TIME FOR ANY SVR.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE FRI NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS FRI NIGHT FROM THE WEST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD GFK-TVF SITES THRU TONIGHT. HOW LOW
CIGS WILL GO IS IN QUESTION BUT KEPT IDEA OF MVFR CIGS LATER THIS
AFTN/EVE AS WINDS TURN NORTH AND INCREASE TO OVER 20KTS. FARGO
AREA IN BETWEEN AREAS FOR A WHILE BUT SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN/EVE...BEMIDJI AREA THE SAME. DEVILS LAKE
ON THE EDGE OF THE RAIN AND DIDNT GO AS WET THERE. MAIN FCST
UPDATES TODAY LIKELY TO DEAL WITH WHETHER CIGS MAINTAIN VFR OR GO
MVFR.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/ROGERS
AVIATION...RIDDLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

717 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED FROM EARLIER FCST ISSUANCE. FOLLOWING THE RAP
CLOSELY. SFC LOW STILL NR WAHPETON 21Z TIME FRAME AND THIS IS THE
BEST AREA/TIME FOR ANY SVR.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

FOCUS TODAY IS RAIN AMOUNTS AND CHC OF SVR WEATHER IN SRN FCST
AREA. POTENT 500 MB WAVE IN CENTRAL MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST AND
INTENSIFY OVER ERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTN/EVE. AS IT
DOES SFC LOW WILL INTENSIFTY OVER CENTRAL-NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD WAHPETON ND BY 21-23Z PERIOD
AND THEN EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THERE. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THERE THAT
AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT REGION
FROM BISMARCK THROUGH JAMESTOWN TO FARGO-GRAND FORKS THEN TO
BEMIDJI REGION. SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF GRAND FORKS. NOW
FROM FARGO-PARK RAPIDS SOUTHWARD...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD OCCUR
PROVIDED GET SOME HEATING TO GENERATE A ROUND OF STRONG-SEVERE
STORMS 21Z-01Z PERIOD. RAP MODEL SHOWS SITUATION QUITE WELL I
BELIEVE WITH SFC LOW LISBON ND AERA 20Z THEN TO DETROIT LAKES AT
23Z. HOP WRF/SPC SREF/RAP ALL HAVE MUCAPES IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE
JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF SFC LOW AND RAP HAS VGP IN THE .3-.35
RANGE JUST EAST OF SFC LOW IN THE LATE AFTN. THIS FOLLOWS IDEA
FROM SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK ISSUED NR 06Z IN HAVING A 5 PCT TORNADO
RISK AREA NR THE ND/SD/MN BORDER REGION. DID FOLLOW WFO ABR LEAD
AND MENTIONED SEVERE STORMS IN GRIDDS FOR LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE IN
THIS REGION. HPC QPF STILL MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN MODEL QPF DUE TO
RELATIVELY QUICK PERIOD OF 1.4 INCH PWATS. SO FOLLOWED FROM OTHER
OFFICES AND USED BLEND OF HPC QPF/SUPERBLEND MODEL QPF. THIS
AVERAGED THE LOWER HPC AND THE HIGHER END SREF/SUPERBLEND QPF. MAX
AREA OF 1 TO 1.50 INCHES STILL SEEMS REASONABLE IN THE JAMESTOWN-
MAYVILLE-BEMIDJI REGION. BUT AT THE PRESENT IT SHOULD FALL OVER A
PERIOD TIME AND NOT PRODUCE EXTREME RUNOFF ISSUES. IF STORMS FORM
IN CITY LOCATIONS THAN OF COURSE COULD HAVE BRIEF RUNOFF ISSUES
OVER CONCRETE...WITH MORE ADVISORY SITUATIONS. THUS NO AREAL FLOOD
WATCH ISSUED. RAIN AREA WILL MOVE EAST SLOWLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OVER ERN ND EARLY THURSDAY AND IN THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE FRI NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS FRI NIGHT FROM THE WEST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/ROGERS
AVIATION...RIDDLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

354 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

FOCUS TODAY IS RAIN AMOUNTS AND CHC OF SVR WEATHER IN SRN FCST
AREA. POTENT 500 MB WAVE IN CENTRAL MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST AND
INTENSIFY OVER ERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTN/EVE. AS IT
DOES SFC LOW WILL INTENSIFTY OVER CENTRAL-NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD WAHPETON ND BY 21-23Z PERIOD
AND THEN EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THERE. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THERE THAT
AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT REGION
FROM BISMARCK THROUGH JAMESTOWN TO FARGO-GRAND FORKS THEN TO
BEMIDJI REGION. SHARP CUTOFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF GRAND FORKS. NOW
FROM FARGO-PARK RAPIDS SOUTHWARD...ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD OCCUR
PROVIDED GET SOME HEATING TO GENERATE A ROUND OF STRONG-SEVERE
STORMS 21Z-01Z PERIOD. RAP MODEL SHOWS SITUATION QUITE WELL I
BELIEVE WITH SFC LOW LISBON ND AERA 20Z THEN TO DETROIT LAKES AT
23Z. HOP WRF/SPC SREF/RAP ALL HAVE MUCAPES IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE
JUST SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF SFC LOW AND RAP HAS VGP IN THE .3-.35
RANGE JUST EAST OF SFC LOW IN THE LATE AFTN. THIS FOLLOWS IDEA
FROM SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK ISSUED NR 06Z IN HAVING A 5 PCT TORNADO
RISK AREA NR THE ND/SD/MN BORDER REGION. DID FOLLOW WFO ABR LEAD
AND MENTIONED SEVERE STORMS IN GRIDDS FOR LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE IN
THIS REGION. HPC QPF STILL MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN MODEL QPF DUE TO
RELATIVELY QUICK PERIOD OF 1.4 INCH PWATS. SO FOLLOWED FROM OTHER
OFFICES AND USED BLEND OF HPC QPF/SUPERBLEND MODEL QPF. THIS
AVERAGED THE LOWER HPC AND THE HIGHER END SREF/SUPERBLEND QPF. MAX
AREA OF 1 TO 1.50 INCHES STILL SEEMS REASONABLE IN THE JAMESTOWN-
MAYVILLE-BEMIDJI REGION. BUT AT THE PRESENT IT SHOULD FALL OVER A
PERIOD TIME AND NOT PRODUCE EXTREME RUNOFF ISSUES. IF STORMS FORM
IN CITY LOCATIONS THAN OF COURSE COULD HAVE BRIEF RUNOFF ISSUES
OVER CONCRETE...WITH MORE ADVISORY SITUATIONS. THUS NO AREAL FLOOD
WATCH ISSUED. RAIN AREA WILL MOVE EAST SLOWLY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OVER ERN ND EARLY THURSDAY AND IN THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM DUE TO ARRIVE FRI NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS FRI NIGHT FROM THE WEST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND WED MORNING. FOR NOW...HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY THUNDER
BUT THIS MAY BE SOMETHING TO ADD WITH LATER TAFS. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE WED AFTERNOON AND EVE...AND COULD GUST
UP TO 30KT DEPENDING ON MODEL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/ROGERS
AVIATION...DK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1253 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE SURFACE
(AROUND H925) EXTENDED FROM NEAR BISMARCK NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR
GRAND FORKS. SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AT THIS LEVEL ARE
MET WITH VARIABLE WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS
IS THE MOST NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE AREA OF SHOWERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS CONTINUES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE
LATEST MODELS INDICATE CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ALONG
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...SO WILL KEEP THE LIKELY OR DEFINITE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MENTIONED ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE LATEST MODELS
ALSO SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MONTANA AND ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE AN AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER NORTHEASTERN MONTANA POISED TO ENTER
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS STILL SHOWS ELEVATED CAPE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA -
STRONGEST OVER THE JAMES VALLE. SO KEPT MENTION OF SHOWERS WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER EAST
CENTRAL WYOMING...WITH ANOTHER OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA. LATEST RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE SOME ELEVATED CAPE AND WITH THE
NORTHERN WAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AND GOOD BULK
SHEAR...SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CHANGES TO THE UPDATE WERE
MAINLY TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE
RAIN HAS BEGUN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY CONTINUES TO HINDER INSTABILITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WYOMING
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING. AS THIS FORCING APPROACHES
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO A RICHER MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WHICH
WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN CURRENT ACTIVITY...THUS STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HAVE DROPPED THE MENTION OF
THUNDER EARLY THIS EVENING AND TRIMMED POPS JUST A BIT. THINK
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AFTER AROUND 02 UTC.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

CONVECTIVE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY HAS HELD DOWN TEMPERATURES AND
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.
THUS...LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
CURRENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS. ATTENTION FOR THE EVENING
WILL BE FOCUSED ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THE 19 UTC RAP/16 UTC HRRR PROPAGATE
THIS CONVECTION INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA BY 00-01 UTC AND INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL BY 04 UTC...AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 06
UTC. THE RAP CHARACTERIZES THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT WITH 300-500
J/KG OF -10 TO -30 C HAIL CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40
KTS...SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND STRENGTHENING DEFORMATION IN
THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
DURATION OF THE EVENT AND EXPECTED INFILTRATION...THE THREAT FOR
OVERLAND OR RIVER FLOODING IS LOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

THE 500MB PATTERN ON THE EXTENDED MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
A FAIRLY ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER SCENARIO THROUGH THE EXTENDED...
THE EXCEPTION BEING THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH EXITS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. CLEARING SKIES WILL COMMENCE AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS BY 12Z FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY
IN THE UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE NEXT SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND MIGRATE INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA SUNDAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT INTO NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW...PRODUCING PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME DRY
TIME IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES...BUT TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR. THE MAIN UPPER LOW
SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REMAINS IN
AN UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 65F TO 75F...AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL IMPACT KBIS AND KJMS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH THE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING
OUT OF THE KBIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER MODELS
INDICATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAFS
OF KDIK...KBIS...AND KJMS. ALSO SHOWERS TO IMPACT KISN AS SHOWERS
MOVE IN FROM MONTANA. THESE SHOWERS TO IMPACT KMOT AFT 10Z.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN KMOT BY 18Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
REMAINING AT KISN.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

120 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH INDIANA INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO
FILLING IN AND SPREADING NORTH. JUST SAW THE FIRST LIGHTNING
STRIKE WEST OF TOLEDO AROUND 1230 PM. OTHERWISE WE WILL BE KEEPING
AN EYE ON SE OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA WHERE SOME INSTABILITY IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP. IT WILL BE THIS AIRMASS THAT GETS PULLED UP
INTO NE OHIO THIS EVENING THAT COULD BECOME A CONCERN. OVERALL
FEELING IS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED THIS
EVENING...BUT CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE IT OUT. THE HRRR DOES SHOW
CONVECTION SPIRALING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY AFTER 5 PM
AS ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING QUICKLY WHEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

PREVIOUS...LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR CHICAGO WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST TOWARDS THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. JUST A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS NE OHIO AT THIS TIME WHILE SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FILL IN ACROSS SW OHIO. ENERGY CAN BE SEEN
MOVING UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND WILL CAUSE THESE
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND AS THEY APPROACH THE AREA FOR THE
AFTERNOON. BY THIS AFTERNOON...MODELS ALSO PLACE AN AREA OF LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK OVER NE OHIO.

INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR WITH RESPECT TO
STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THIS EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS THAT WILL
LEAD TO A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF HEATING BEFORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FILL
BACK IN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DID TWEAK HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A
COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE UPPER 70S WHICH MAY EVEN BE A STRUGGLE TO
ACHIEVE IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS WILL ONLY GIVE BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG OF CAPE. THE BETTER INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL BE ALIGNED IN THE
EAST WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HELD ONTO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAKE
DAMAGING WINDS A CONCERN IF ANY ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
THERE WILL ALSO BE AN AREA...ESPECIALLY AS YOU APPROACH LAKE
ERIE...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED AND DID INCLUDE AN
ISOLATED TORNADO MENTION IN THE HWO. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON TRENDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TO THE EAST COAST AND
AMPLIFY WITH TIME AS DIGGING POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH GRADUALLY
BECOMES NEGATIVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LOW PRESSURE TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION INTO
CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
EVENTUALLY...ANOTHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO PULL
OUT TO THE EAST ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY. INITIALLY THE THINKING WAS THAT WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER ROUND FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE THREAT IS
DIMINISHING WITH TIME AS INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT
GREAT OVER THE AREA. THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT ONE OR
TWO STORMS MAY GET A LITTLE FEISTY AND NEED WATCHING.

ONCE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THE
THREAT FOR RAIN QUICKLY ENDS ON FRIDAY AND FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO OHIO AND NW PA. THE
INCREASED MOISTURE AND WARMTH MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITHOUT AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE WE DO NOT
WANT TO GO HIGHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS POINT. AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY THEN LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM MOIST AIR ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA IN WAKE OF WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. INSTABILITY IS ALSO INCREASING AND
SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA FROM CENTRAL OHIO COUNTIES.
CIGS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY MVFR BUY VARY BETWEEN A LOW
VFR DOWN TO MVFR CIG. EXPECTING SHOWERS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH MID AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDER AS WELL. EXACT
PLACEMENT/TIMING ELUSIVE SO JUST WENT WITH 18-20Z TEMPO GROUP FOR
SHOWERS MOST PLACES...INCREASING TO VCTS ALONG WITH TEMPO SHOWERS
AT 20Z. OVERNIGHT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING/DEVELOPING...DROPPING TO SCATTERED IFR WITH
VISIBILITIES ALSO RESTRICTED IN FOG/MIST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

.MARINE...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS MICHIGAN AND INTO ONTARIO
TODAY. THIS WILL PULL A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING THEN
A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW
EASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME SOUTH BY THIS AFTERNOON THEN SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE WEAK TROUGH. WE WILL THEN AWAIT A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE WHICH WILL ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY. WE WILL MONITOR FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF WAVES REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A
FEW HOURS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE FOR THE WEEKEND.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...MULLEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

105 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO
FILLING IN AND SPREADING NORTH. JUST SAW THE FIRST LIGHTNING
STRIKE WEST OF TOLEDO AROUND 1230 PM. OTHERWISE WE WILL BE KEEPING
AN EYE ON SE OHIO AND WEST VIRIGINIA WHERE SOME INSTABILITY IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP. IT WILL BE THIS AIRMASS THAT GETS PULLED UP
INTO NE OHIO THIS EVENING THAT COULD BECOME A CONCERN. OVERALL
FEELING IS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED THIS
EVENING...BUT CAN NOT ENTIRELY RULE IT OUT. THE HRRR DOES SHOW
CONVECTION SPRIRALING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY AFTER 5 PM
AS ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING QUICKLY WHEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM FRONT HAS REACHED LAKE ERIE AS OF 11Z. THIS BOUNDARY AND AN
AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH MID
MORNING. ANY RAIN WILL BE LIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL LOCATIONS. EXPECT TO SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SEEING A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR UNTIL
13Z OR 14Z.

THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM FORECAST IS DIFFICULT. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BUT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO ASSIST IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WE BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP BUT THE LOCATION OF
THEM IS UNCERTAIN. SINCE THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WE HAVE NOT
GONE WITH ANYTHING MORE THAN A VICINITY THUNDER MENTION IN THE
TAFS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

633 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH VALID PERIOD
AT MOST AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE VALID. THERE COULD BE MVFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG AT THE NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TAF SITES
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT MCS HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STILL LINGERS ACROSS
FAR SE OK WITH DIFFUSE SYNOPTIC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS ECNTRL OK. HAVE
NOTED ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...AND NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW OF
THESE WILL BECOME STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION...WITH STORMS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING. SFC RIDGE AND DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR
WILL FILTER SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WITH RATHER PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS RETURNING AS
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST.

SWLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATER THIS WEEKEND...WITH A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.
ECMWF/GFS SIMILAR IN SWINGING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO
PLAINS...WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SOME SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN N OF INTERSTATE 40.

ECMWF/GFS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF
KEEPING THE UPPER LOW MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS...THUS
MAINTAINING MORE RIDGING CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE OPTED TO
LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF/GEM FOR NOW AND KEPT THE MID/LATE WEEK DRY
AND WARM FOR NOW.

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...10

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

907 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH JUST A
FEW AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...
BRINGING CLOUDS AND A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. A COUPLE MORE SYSTEMS MAY CLIP THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BUT
THE OVERALL TREND WILL LIKELY BE BACK TOWARD WARMER AND DRIER BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A FEW CUMULUS OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE
SOME AFTER SUNSET. DONT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE FOR TOMORROW BUT A WEAK
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE AREA BY ALL THE MODELS. THE
SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BUT WITH THE RIDGING AND
OVERALL WARMER AIR MASS ALOFT EXPECT THAT IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
THAN EARLIER FORECAST. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND A FEW
INLAND IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING BUT OVERALL LOTS OF SUNSHINE.
HAVE RAISED THE MAX TEMPERATURES OVER THE INLAND VALLEYS A FEW
DEGREES.

THE 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ON THU AS A
N UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA..THEN
FORMS INTO A CUT OFF LOW AND SHIFTS SOUTH RIGHT OVER NORTHWEST
OREGON. THE 00Z AND 18Z GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT ALONG WITH THE 12Z
ECMWF. THIS SHOULD BRING A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER AS THE
FLOW SHIFTS STRONGLY ONSHORE AND HEIGHTS LOWER. COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE
ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE ONSHORE PUSH AND DEEPENING MARINE LAYER.
SCHNEIDER

TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO FALL SOME 10-15 DEGREES WITH THIS SYSTEM...
TRANSITIONING FROM 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED TO 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL DO NOT SHOW ENOUGH LIFT
NOR STEEP ENOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO WARRANT THUNDER THU/FRI...A
LITTLE SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE UPPER LOW IS ESSENTIALLY FORECAST
TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WEAGLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SHOWERY WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK WILL MOVE OFF TOWARD THE
ROCKIES FRI NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS GENERALLY DECREASING OVER THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE FLOW ACROSS THE NE PAC WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE...POSSIBLY CARRYING A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE
PAC NW FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY MODELS
ARE SHOWING GREATER CONSENSUS IN TURNING THE FLOW ALOFT MORE
NORTHERLY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS AGAIN OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. AS A RESULT IT APPEARS WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
HAS A DECENT CHANCE AT RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAGLE

.AVIATION...06Z TAF PACKAGE...CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TERMINALS. DO EXPECT THIS
WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT WITH KAST FIRST RECEIVING A MVFR DECK
AROUND 015 SHORTLY. THIS BROAD AREA OF MARINE STRATUS WILL PUSH
DOWN THE COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND REACH INLAND AROUND DAYBREAK.
WILL SEE DIMINISHING CIG IMPACTS FROM THE PORTLAND METRO AREA
TOWARD THE SOUTH VALLEY WITH PERHAPS LITTLE OR NO MORNING CLOUDS
FOR KEUG. LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP ALSO APPEAR TO LIMIT THE INLAND
INTRUSION AND SOUTHERN EXTENT ALONG THE COAST. IT KEEPS SOME BKN
TO OVC STRATUS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND SOMEWHAT MORE BROKEN
ACROSS THE INLAND NORTH. WILL FOLLOW A HYBRID APPROACH BETWEEN THE
00Z NAM AND THE 01-03Z RAP RUNS. AFTER HEATING BEGINS
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM REMAINING SCT CLOUDS ASIDE
FROM KAST WHERE A SLOWER BREAKUP TOWARD MID DAY SEEMS LIKELY.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH A
FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR 025 CIGS BETWEEN 13 AND 16Z WEDNESDAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER THAN
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. /JBONK

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE GENERALLY EASED BUT MAY STILL BE EXCEEDING
SMALL CRAFT WIND CRITERIA OF 21 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
WATERS. BEST EVIDENCE OF THEIR EXISTENCE IS ALONG THE NOS
STATIONS NEAR THE YAQUINA AND SIUSLAW JETTIES. WILL KEEP THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS IN PLACE FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS AS
PLANNED. WINDS ARE LESS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE WIND FLOW IS ORIENTED
MORE ONSHORE. A WEAK SURFACE LOW AROUND 1010 MB WILL SET UP OFF
THE WASHINGTON COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOVING ONSHORE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS WITH THIS LOW. HIGHER PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

4 TO 5 FT AND SOMEWHAT CHOPPY SEAS WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEAS MAY RISE BACK TO 8 OR 9 FT IN THE NORTHWEST WINDS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FROM THE NORTHWEST WIND FETCH BEHIND THE
THURSDAY LOW...GETTING CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
JBONK/PT

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 2 AM TO 6
AM PDT
WEDNESDAY.

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

914 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

.UPDATE...

DECREASED POPS OVER THE WEST BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HRRR SHOWS
SOME SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIKELY WON`T
REACH THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU UNTIL CLOSER TO FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TONIGHT TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECASTS.

AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASED CLOUDS
AT CKV AND BNA SHOULD SUPPRESS OVERNIGHT BR FORMATION. HOWEVER,
CSV WILL SEE FEWER CLOUDS DURING MUCH OF THE NIGHT, WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED (DUE TO BR) BTWN 05Z AND 09Z. WAVY UPPER FLOW
FORECAST TO PUSH A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HRS TOMORROW, KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR TSRA RUNNING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BEHIND IT. EXPECT CIGS TO
BE MAINLY MVFR AFTER 12Z, WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS LATE IN
THE PERIOD AT CKV AND BNA.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

947 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

.UPDATE...
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO CONGEAL INTO A COMPLEX OF
STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH AND HAVE
INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HRRR SEEMS TO
HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE TRENDS AND HAS MOST ACTIVITY SOUTH OF
THE CWA AFTER 8Z. OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...SEVERE CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE WITH A WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
INCREASING INHIBITION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OUT OF
THE HEAVIER STORMS...BUT STORM MOTIONS ARE BECOMING A FASTER AS
COMPLEX BECOMES DOMINATED BY COLD POOLS. SOME LOCATIONS WILL PICK
UP OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN AND THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING AT SOME POINT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LATE
TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE...WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS OVERTAKEN THE HEAT ADVISORY WITH THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
AS WELL...AND HAVE CANCELLED THE HEAT ADVISORY.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLD STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU
MAY ONLY AFFECT KDRT...BUT THE CHANCES ARE SMALL SO ONLY USED
VCTS MENTION AT THIS TIME. SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL INDICATED A
SQUALL LINE MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE I-35 SITES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT SINCE ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT IS LAGGING...ONLY KEPT
MENTION OF THIS IN THE KAUS TAF BUT NOT FOR KSAT/KSSF. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT MVFR STRATUS AGAIN FROM ROUGHLY 07-14Z...THEN VFR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALSO LEFT OUT MENTION OF TSRA FOR
FRIDAY...BUT MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE IT FOR THE I-35 SITES IN FUTURE
TAF ISSUANCES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER ROUGHLY A PANDALE TO JUNCTION TO LLANO LINE
AS A RESULT OF OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA
WILL LIKELY BREAK OUT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH W TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. A BROADER SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO ENHANCE STORM POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGH RES
MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING CLUSTERS OF STORMS DROPPING S/E FROM
NORTH TX INTO CENTRAL TX LATER THIS EVENING. CAPES AT OR ABOVE
4000 J/KG AND MODERATE SHEAR SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE SURFACE FOCUS
TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE TO PROMOTE SEVERE STORMS...A
FEW CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO. BACKED SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY COULD
MEAN THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES COULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY BEING BOOSTED BY THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE
AREA THAT WOULD ORIGINATE FROM THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH. HEAVY
RAIN THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SECONDARY...AS PROGRESSIVE STORM
MOTIONS OVER 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED AND THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR THE FORMATION OF AN MCS. THIS OPINION
IS FORMED BASED ON THE SPORADIC LOCATIONS OF THE 850 MB THETA-E
FIELDS WHICH SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE STORMS SHIFT EAST.

A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME SPOTTY DOWNPOURS EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR
BEFORE STABILITY ATTEMPTS TO TAKE OVER AGAIN FOR FRIDAY FRIDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
AND COULD BE TROUBLESOME ON POPS AND TEMPS IN THE LATER PERIODS.
THE NARROWNESS OF THE RIDGE MEANS THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME
OF THE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE CRISTINA COULD GET ENTRAINED INTO
THE SYSTEM. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ALREADY APPEAR TO BE HEDGING
THEIR BETS WITH THE ECMWF MID LEVEL PATTERNS LOOKING VERY
UNSTABLE OVER SOUTH TX IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
A CANADIAN/GFS BLEND IS PREFERRED FOR NOW SO AS NOT TO STRAY TOO
FAR FROM THE IDEA THAT THE RIDGE AXIS CAN HOLD TOGETHER AND KEEP
US DRY. BLENDED GUIDANCES WERE ADOPTED FOR TEMPERATURES AND SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE THROWN IN FOR MAINLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

CLIMATE...
DRT RECORDS IN JEOPARDY
DATE HIGH YEAR
06/12 106 2001
06/13 105 1960

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 91 73 92 72 / 70 20 10 - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 90 71 92 71 / 70 20 10 - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 71 92 72 93 72 / 70 20 10 - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 88 71 90 70 / 70 20 10 - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 99 76 100 76 / 20 10 10 - 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 88 71 90 71 / 70 20 10 - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 94 73 95 72 / 70 10 - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 71 91 73 92 72 / 70 20 10 - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 72 91 73 92 73 / 70 30 - - -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 93 74 93 73 / 70 20 - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 94 74 95 74 / 70 20 - - -

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

855 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ROUGHLY
TO THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRYAN TO THE WOODLANDS TO CROSBY HAS PRODUCED
A COUPLE LARGE HAIL REPORTS AND SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 50 MPH.
RADAR HAS INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT
LAW ENFORCEMENT HAS REPORTED NO FLOODING ISSUES.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OUR ACTIVITY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INTERACT
WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AREA SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE REMAINING EVENING HOURS AND ON INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEVERAL AVAILABLE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THESE STORMS AS THEY EDGE INTO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. SPOTS AT GREATEST RISK FOR ANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AREA MOST LIKELY
OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA...OR ROUGHLY
WEST OF A LINE FROM MIDWAY TO PINEHURST TO SWEENY. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
BETWEEN IAH AND CXO THIS EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY
REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS...HOWEVER BY FAR THE BIGGEST
IMPACT TO THE TERMINALS COULD BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SMALL HAIL. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE
VCNTY OF THESE TERMINALS BY 02Z.

ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 04Z AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS AND 08Z AT THE COAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THESE STORMS MAY BE A LITTLE
MORE LESS SEVERE IN NATURE AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE BEEN
WORKED OVER BY EARLIER CONVECTION. MESO MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST.

AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
UTS...CXO...AND IAH LATE TONIGHT SHOULD SKIES CLEAR OUT DURING
PREDAWN HOURS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN TROF ACCESS ROTATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 44

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/

.SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT...

DISCUSSION...
THIS FORECAST UPDATE FOCUSED MAINLY ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST VIS SATELLITE AND SFC
OBS SHOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM BASICALLY JASPER TX TO STEPHENVILLE
TX THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER TX SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP STRONG INSTABILITY TO
ITSELF AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. SPC RAP MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS
QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SLOT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALSO
PUSHING OVER THE REGION. ALSO MAY SEE AN AREA OF ENHANCED JET
STREAM WINDS OVER THIS REGION AS WELL. THIS SHOULD FURTHER HELP
SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. OVERALL THE
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF TX.

MESO MODELS OF HRRR/WRF-ARW/NMM AND WRF RUN BY TX TECH ALL SHOW A
LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO SE TX AROUND 01-04Z THIS EVENING. THE
12Z NAM ALSO HINTS AT THIS WITH THE OTHER SYNOPTIC MODELS SHOWING
HIGH QPF OVER C TX INTO SE TX INDICATIVE OF CONVECTION. GIVEN ALL
THIS AGREEMENT ADDED 70 POPS TO THE FORECAST WITH MENTION OF
SEVERE STORMS FOR TONIGHT. LIKE TIMING OF REACHING NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM 00Z-04Z AND THEN HOUSTON AREA AROUND
03Z-07Z. DEPENDING ON HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES...SQUALL LINE COULD
BE SLOWER IF IT TAKES MORE TIME TO DEVELOP. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS SUPPORT BOWING SEGMENTS WITH THE SQUALL LINE. WRF-ARW
REALLY SHOWS THIS STRUCTURE WELL AT 03Z TONIGHT. THINK DAMAGING
WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL BE MAIN CONCERN. SHOULD BOW ECHOES
FORM...HIGHER CHANCE FOR WIND DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS DO SHOW SQUALL LINE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
HOUSTON AREA SO IMPACTS MAY BE LESS FARTHER SOUTH THAN BRAZOS
VALLEY INTO EAST TEXAS. STILL LOW CHANCES OF THE LINE MAKING IT TO
THE COAST BUT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF COLD POOL AND CAP
WEAKENING. AS SUCH HAVE TAPERED OFF POPS FOR TONIGHT CLOSER TO THE
COAST SOUTH OF I-10.

FRIDAY MAY STILL HAVE SOME CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY ROTATE THROUGH WITH A BACK
DOOR FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. GFS/NAM/ECMWF HINT AT SOME
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH PASSING TROUGH AXIS. KEPT
SOME 30 POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE COULD HAVE
REALLY WORKED OVER THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH
RECOVERY. GFS DOES HINT AT PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8-2.0
INCHES SO WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TOMORROW...COULD
SEE STORMS DEVELOP AGAIN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS
LOW BUT AGAIN COULD SEE A WIND THREAT WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WHEN LOOKING AT GFS/ECMWF DATA
FOR THE EXTENDED. RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL SAT BUT COULD GET SOME
ISO ACTIVITY SUN/MON. REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE QUESTIONABLE AS TO
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND ANY LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE. SUPPOSE
THAT SEA BREEZE COULD DEVELOP TO SUPPORT A STORM OR TWO BUT TOO
FAR OUT TO PINPOINT MESOSCALE FORECAST DETAILS.

MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUING A SLOW UPTICK WITH THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT
(IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW OUT WEST). AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO
THE EAST FRIDAY...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY/BRIEFLY THRU
SAT. GRADIENT EXPECTED TIGHTEN ONCE AGAIN LATE SAT WITH ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. MODERATE/OCCASIONALLY STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS TO PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 41

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 91 74 91 74 / 70 30 20 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 91 74 91 74 / 50 30 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 79 88 79 88 79 / 30 30 10 10 20

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...44

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

718 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z DISCUSSION.

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
BETWEEN IAH AND CXO THIS EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY
REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS...HOWEVER BY FAR THE BIGGEST
IMPACT TO THE TERMINALS COULD BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SMALL HAIL. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE
VCNTY OF THESE TERMINALS BY 02Z.

AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT
UTS...CXO...AND IAH LATE TONIGHT SHOULD SKIES CLEAR OUT DURING
PREDAWN HOURS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE MAIN TROF ACCESS ROTATES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 44

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/

..SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT...

AVIATION...
KEPT THE MENTION OF VCTS IN FOR THIS AFTN FOR SOME SITES AS ANOTHER
LINE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER SHORT-TERM MODELS STILL GOING
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN FOR TONIGHT AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES A-
CROSS THE AREA TO THE EAST. 41

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 91 74 91 74 / 70 30 20 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 91 74 91 74 / 50 30 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 79 88 79 88 79 / 30 30 10 10 20

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...44

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

1122 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
TEXAS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY THEN
ACROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REST
OF THE EAST.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1121 PM EDT THURSDAY...

ADJUSTED POPS DOWN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
BLUEFIELD-WYTHEVILLE-BOONE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PIEDMONT OF
VIRGINIA. THE TREND FOR DECREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

AS OF 805 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINS. BOTH THE HRRR AND RNK WRFARW KEEP SCATTERED CONVECTION
GOING TO AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AND TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS FOR LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS.
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOR LAST OBS. HELD ON TO
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AND FOG.

AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...

EASTERN EDGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD BEEN GRADUALLY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND EXTENDED FROM GREENBRIER
COUNTY TO WATAUGA COUNTY. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE CENTERED OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST TIP OF VIRGINIA. AS
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO WILL THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS....ALTHOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL
BE LESS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND NOON ON FRIDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD ALSO DEVELOPED
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY WAS EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT SPC MESOANALYSIS HAD BEEN SHOWING HIGHER
DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES IN THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS IN THAT REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE...THAT WAS CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROLONG THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL LIMIT THE HEATING...INSTABILITY AND
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. MAV GUIDANCE HAD
REASONABLE NUMBERS FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

LOOKING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN ENTERING OUR
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...USHERING
WITH IT HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR. WILL SEE MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY
FIZZLE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...BUT WILL STILL
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER DARK...MAINLY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT...AS THE FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
MANAGE TO COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...HOWEVER
BELIEVE WE WILL STILL HOLD ONTO LOW 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER PATTERN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINING A
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST. WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...AND THE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS DURING EARLY EVENING...ALTHOUGH ANY CONVECTION
WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO AVERAGE FOR MID JUNE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S WEST
TO THE MID 80S EAST...AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOW
60S.

FOR SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GULF...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST...COMING
TO REST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY. AS THE HIGH
MOVES...WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTERLY...AND WILL
BEGIN TO DRAW ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. RIDGING WILL
MAKE FOR A LITTLE MORE HEATING AND INSTABILITY...AND EXPECT A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 80S MOST LOCATIONS WHILE SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET A GOOD SHOT OF SOUPY SUMMERTIME WEATHER.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL COUPLE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TO
PUMP WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE SERN US. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MID WEEK...AND NOT TOO MUCH COOLER
WEST OF THE RIDGE. COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S IT WILL BE QUITE STICKY
INDEED. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BRING US MORE AND MORE INSTABILITY AND WE CAN
EXPECT SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

THEN THINGS START TO GO SIDEWAYS AS MODEL GUIDANCE REALLY STARTS TO DIVERGE IN
SOLUTIONS DEEPER INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EURO AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
FAVORING A BLOCKY PATTERN WITH A DEEPENING TROF IN THE WEST AND CORRESPONDING
RIDGE IN THE EAST. GFS AND SOME OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE.
THE RESULT IS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS WE GET TO THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS RESULTS IN THE GFS BEING RATHER BULLISH WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OF AIRMASS...WHILE THE EURO
IS HAPPY TO KEEP US IN HIGH THETA-E AIR INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW LATER MODEL RUNS PLAY OUT AS
THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR OUR FORECAST
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 810 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SCATTERED MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. THEN...CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS WILL FILL IN OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR HOW FAR CEILINGS WILL DROP. WINDS
BECOME NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
THIS FRONT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
WITH BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR LONGER PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK/RCS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/KK/PM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

939 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 939 PM EDT THURSDAY...

ADJUSTED POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS WITH WSR-
88D TRENDS. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DECREASING
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS SHOWN ON THE RNK WRFARW. AREAS OF FOG
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FELL THIS EVENING.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH LATEST OBS. MADE ONLY
MINOR CHANGES IN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.

AS OF 805 PM EDT THURSDAY...

AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 810 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SCATTERED MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. THEN...CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/KK/PM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

811 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 805 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINS. BOTH THE HRRR AND RNK WRFARW KEEP SCATTERED CONVECTION
GOING TO AROUND 06Z TONIGHT AND TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS FOR LAST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS. MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOR LAST OBS. HELD ON TO OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES AND FOG.

AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 810 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SCATTERED MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. THEN...CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/KK/PM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
537 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system will track into the region this
evening bringing a good chance of thunderstorms some of which
could be strong with gusty winds and large hail. The low will
remain over the region through the weekend resulting in cool and
unsettled weather conditions. High pressure will return into the
region on Tuesday and bring drying conditions.

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...Strong upper level low continues to slowly meander
toward the Washington coast as of 2pm with strong upper level
difluence noted ahead of it. This difluence is associated with
strong upper level southwesterly jet which extended from the SW
corner of Oregon and into SE Washington. Meanwhile the offshore
trough will take on a slightly negative tilt as a shortwave rounds
the base. These mechanisms will provide the lift necessary for
thunderstorms...while the instability is already present. Thus far
the greatest potential instability was located near the Cascades
where MUCAPE values have surged into 1000-1500 j/kg range with
little if any inhibition. Thunderstorms have been growing in
number but thus far have been restricted to the western portions
of Chelan and Okanogan counties. 0-6 km shear values in these
areas range from 25-35 kts which isn`t terrific but could be
sufficient for an isolated strong or severe thunderstorm with the
main threat being moderate sized hail. An area of greater concern
lies over the SE corner of Washington and the southern half of the
Idaho Panhandle. This location has a much more profound
instability axis as well as shear values topping out between 50-60
kts. Convection has already begun to grow over the NE corner of
Oregon and should drift into SE Washington and the Panhandle
during the early evening as the low moves inland. The HRRR has
consistently forecast this feature to track through the SE corner
of our CWA so confidence is growing. Whether or not the
thunderstorms in this area become severe isn`t a certainty...but
the max composite reflectivity product has consistently depicted a
bow-like structure which would be conducive for strong winds. The
threat for any strong/severe storms should be minimal after the
late evening hours as we lose any impacts from surface heating. As
the low tracks east of the Cascades during the evening...we will
see an intrusion of drier air move into the southern Cascades and
into the Columbia Basin behind a cold front. This should also put
an end to the convective chances in these locations...with the
possibility of this moving as far east as the Spokane area and
Washington Palouse. For the overnight hours...we should see most
of the precipitation chances focused around the northern and
eastern periphery of the upper level low. This generally
encompasses the western Cascades through the northern Washington
mountains and into the northern Idaho Panhandle. Potential
instability numbers suggest lightning could still be possible from
the Okanogan Highlands to the northern tip of the Panhandle. fx

Friday and Friday night: The cold upper level low pressure system
will pass over SE WA and over the Central Panhandle during the
day. This is where the coldest temps aloft and the steepest mid
level lapse rates will reside. As such, the southeastern portion
of the forecast area will see the best chance for thunderstorms
from the afternoon into the evening. We will also be dealing with
some wrap around moisture rotating in over the Northern Panhandle
and across much of the western half of the forecast area. Showers
will also develop along this TROWAL (TRough Of Warm Air Aloft)
like feature through this period as well. This will result in
plenty of cloud cover and higher than average precip chances
across the region. In fact, most areas will see a good chance for
some rain either in the afternoon or overnight on Friday as the
TROWAL shifts eastward with time along the backside of the low.
Cloudy skies under the low on Friday will result in dramatically
lower temps compared to this afternoon. Expect high temps only to
get up into the 60s for most locations in the afternoon.

Saturday through Sunday evening: The flow pattern over the region
will transition to out of the northwest as the low exits the
area. Showers will linger primarily across the eastern third of
the forecast area on Saturday. Temperatures will rebound closer to
normal Saturday afternoon.

The next weather feature of note will be a cold front passage on
Sunday. There is some uncertainty with the strength and moisture
content with this wave. The latest 18Z NAM just came in with Pwats
up around 0.80 inches compared to just 0.50 to 0.60 inches off of
the 12Z GFS run. The current forecast is more reflective of the
drier GFS with the best chances of showers across the northern
mtns. If subsequent model runs continue to show a stronger and
wetter wave like the newest NAM run, then the forecast will need
to be adjusted wetter and have increased coverage further south
and into the basin. Winds do not appear to be that much of a
concern across the region with this front, but we will continue to
see a fairly tight cross Cascade gradient. This will would keep
winds breezy through the Cascade gaps and out into the western
basin. /SVH

Sunday night through Thursday: Big differences right off the bat
for the latter portion of the extended forecast. While the GFS
would maintain a northwest flow on Monday, and then build a weak
ridge in for the middle of the week. This solution is also
supported by others. On the other hand, other model solutions
would argue for another more organized low pressure system moving
right over top of the Inland Northwest, which would bring much
cooler and unsettled conditions. With emphasis this shift on the
shorter terms, this forecast will go with the status quo, which is
more in line with the more consistent solutions. This will give
slowly warming temperatures each day, with precipitation chances
mainly confined to the higher elevations. ty

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: A vigorous low pressure system is swinging onto the west
coast. This will trigger a chance of showers and thunderstorms
for all forecast sites thru 06z. GEG/SFF/COE will be the last
locations threatened...and honestly, may be missed...but
confidence isn`t high. Any storms which form could produce
erratic wind gusts with speeds approaching 40 mph. The best
chances for that would be for PUW/LWS. After 06z...the threat
should wane for all locations with VFR conditions expected through
remainder of forecast. -RA will start aft 12z Fri in the Cascades
as the trough moves inland. The -RA will shift east through the
morning into eastern WA and north ID.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 49 62 48 69 48 68 / 30 70 70 20 10 20
Coeur d`Alene 48 61 47 66 46 66 / 30 70 70 40 20 30
Pullman 46 60 45 66 44 66 / 50 70 70 30 10 20
Lewiston 54 67 51 75 51 73 / 50 70 70 30 10 20
Colville 50 63 48 71 48 67 / 60 80 80 30 20 30
Sandpoint 49 60 46 62 44 63 / 60 80 80 60 20 30
Kellogg 48 58 45 61 46 63 / 60 70 80 80 20 30
Moses Lake 53 71 51 78 52 77 / 20 50 30 0 0 10
Wenatchee 54 70 55 76 56 75 / 20 50 30 10 0 10
Omak 52 69 51 78 50 74 / 60 60 40 10 10 20

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

905 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

THE MAIN UPDATE TO THE EVENING FORECAST HAS BEEN TO ADD IN A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER CLOUD COVER TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CLOSED LOW HAS KEPT A MORE WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK IN
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND HAS BROUGHT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG WITH IT. RADAR IS OVERSHOOTING THESE SHOWERS...BUT OBS FROM
SITES IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE REPORTING THEM. THEY SHOULD
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE PUSHES
EAST AS WELL.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

AT 3 PM...A 990 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN ANS THEN SOUTH ALONG THE WEST SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A
BROKEN DECK OF INSTABILITY CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN LAYER
OF 850 TO 800 MB MOISTURE AND 10 C/KM LAPSE RATES. THESE STEEP
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO BRINGING DOWN WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE RAP CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE BROKEN DECK OF
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90
THROUGH 13.03Z...AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 13.03Z AND 13.06Z. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST UP TO 25 MPH THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION
DEVELOPS.

FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT AS DIURNAL HEATING TAKES PLACE...900 TO
850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 10 C/KM. THIS WILL MIX
DOWN DRIER AIR MUCH ALOFT. THE AWIPS MIX TOOL SUGGEST THAT DEW
POINTS WILL IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN...
AND AROUND 40 WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS 5 TO 10
DEGREE LOWER THAN THE MOS. THIS LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO
THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. UNLIKE THIS AFTERNOON...THE WINDS
SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY LESS 7 MPH UP TO 800 MB...SO NOT EXPECTING
TOO MUCH WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE 12.12Z ARW GENERATES SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS IN THIS
MODELS ARE RUNNING NEARLY 10 DEGREES TOO HIGH. THIS IS RESULTING
IN TOO HIGH OF CAPES. IN ADDITION...THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE AREA. DUE TO THIS...KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY.

FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE STRONGEST 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS A RESULT
WENT DRY DURING THE MORNING...AND THEN KEPT A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE NORTHWEST OF A NEILLSVILLE WISCONSIN TO OELWEIN IOWA LINE.

FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR DURING THE EVENING...AND THEN MOVE EAST
AS THE LOW LEVEL JETS VEERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS
CLIMBING INTO THE 3.5 TO 4 KM RANGE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
UP TO 1.8 INCHES...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAIN. WHILE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE INHIBITED BY THE LACK OF 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR...AND ML CAPES
LESS THAN 250 J/KG.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE
POSITION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW...SO JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THIS EVENING AS THE WIND GUSTS SUBSIDE AND
CLOUD COVER DIMINISHES. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE
10-16KT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING THOUGH THE GUSTS SHOULD
DROP OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. 4-6KFT CU FIELD SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH GOING THROUGH THE EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
EAST OF THE REGION AND DRIER AIR COMES IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY INTO TOMORROW
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP
EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

629 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...HALBACH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1242 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

WATER VAPOR AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW A
CLOSED LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL IL WHILE AN OPEN TROUGH WAS MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TIED TO THE CLOSED
LOW ACROSS PORTION OF NORTHERN IL INTO SOUTHEAST WI. THERE WERE A
FEW ECHOES ALSO SHOWING UP ACROSS GRANT COUNTY WITHIN THE ARX
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH WAS PUSHING
EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. OTHERWISE...THE ARX FORECAST AREA WAS
RELATIVELY QUIET WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 50S WIT A FEW LOWER
60 DEGREE READINGS.

FOR TODAY...THE CLOSED LOW OVER IL WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST
WHILE FILLING...REACHING LOWER MI BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS WHILE SPINNING UP FAIRLY VIGOROUS
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER WEST CENTRAL MN BY EARLY THIS EVENING. IN
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA
DRY AND WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

LATEST NAM/ECMWF/GEM IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEPENING LOW OVER
NORTHERN MN WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST WI THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MN AND CENTRAL IA AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND WESTERN WI BY
MORNING. MODELS SHOWING BEST 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING
NORTH OF THE AREA AS STRONGEST PART OF MID-LEVEL PV-ANOMALY HEADS
INTO NORTHERN MN. AS SUCH...KEPT HIGHER-END RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF I-
90 AS THE FRONT SWEEPS IN. GFS/EC SHOWING MINIMAL 0-3KM MUCAPE RIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE 250-500J/KG RANGE. WOULD BE THINKING JUST
SHOWERS WITH THIS KIND OF CAPE...BUT GIVEN STRONGER DYNAMICS OF THIS
SYSTEM THOUGH...THINKING WE WILL SEE A FEW STORMS BUT NOTHING SEVERE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THE CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 55-60 DEGREE
RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS TAKE THE DEEP LOW INTO ONTARIO WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER EXITING EAST OF THE
AREA BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR DRIER/COOLER AIR TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-30 MPH
RANGE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER
70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE A BIT CHILLY WITH CLEARING AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING. WITH HIGHS SLIDING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA...SHOULD MAINTAIN A GRADIENT FOR SOME LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL PREVENT COOLING FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF
CONTROL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE FAVORED COLDER SPOTS OF CENTRAL
WI. THINKING RIGHT NOW THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
LOWER-MID 40S ACROSS THE SANDY/BOG AREAS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE.

FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE VERY PLEASANT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

ATTENTION THEN TURN TOWARD A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY FOR INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES. AT
THIS POINT...APPEARS FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING IN THE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME //PER THE GFS AND ECMWF// WILL LIMIT
CAPE AND SEVERE THREAT ACROSS OUR AREA. ALSO...APPEARS THE BEST
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT VIA THE ECMWF/GFS REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE MCS THERE WHILE OUR AREA IS BASICALLY
IN CHANNELED TRANSPORT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER SLUG HEADING NORTH
OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY ACTUALLY CAUSE A SPLIT IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA GOING INTO FATHERS DAY...WITH
BEST RAIN CHANCES NORTH AND FARTHER SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN A CLOSE EYE
ON THIS WHOLE SCENARIO AND IMPACT ON OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...LOOKS
LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER
70S.

ECMWF/GFS MODELS SHOW COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING A STATIONARY
FRONT LAYING OUT ACROSS NORTHERN IL INTO CENTRAL IA MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COUPLE MID-LEVEL WAVES INTERACT WITH THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOR CONTINUED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...THEN A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THEM IMPACTING THE TAF SITES. IF THE STORMS
WOULD IMPACT THE TAF SITES THEY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35
KTS. OTHERWISE...RIGHT ALONG AND FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEHIND THE
FRONT A BKN STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUD BASES AT 2000 TO
2500 FT. THESE STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY SCATTER OUT AS DRIER AIR
PUSHES IN. ALSO...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 18 KTS
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...WETENKAMP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

621 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

A DRY WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TAF SITES WILL HELP MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. A COLD FRONT
SITUATED OVER THE DAKOTAS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT. A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...LIKELY BECOMING MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED AS
THE BAND CROSSES MINNESOTA AND IOWA. THUS...ONLY HAVE INCLUDED
VCSH AT THE TAF SITES. WITH THIS PRECIPITATION FALLING APART AS IT
RUNS INTO DRY AIR...HAVE KEPT CEILINGS VFR. THERE ARE SOME HINTS
THAT TOWARDS 12Z SOME LOWER MVFR CEILINGS COULD MAKE THEIR WAY
INTO KRST BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THESE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME BEING AT THE TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND UNCERTAINTY.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

338 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS
THINNING OUT...SO SKIES WILL MAINLY BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
STAYING FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST/EAST. DESPITE THE DEEP
LIGHT WINDS...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS MAY BE TOO DRY FOR FOG TO
FORM...SO HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS AT P6SM THROUGH THE MORNING. AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION COULD MOVE IN AROUND
3-6Z...PARTICULARLY OUT AT RST THOUGH THE COVERAGE MAY NOT BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH WHERE THEY HIT AT TAF SITE. HAVE ADDED A VCTS
FOR THE POTENTIAL PERIOD WHERE THESE STORMS COULD GET IN.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...HALBACH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

414 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE US WILL MAINTAIN COOL TEMPS ALOFT
(-10C AT 500 MB). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS IS OVERSPREADING THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW BETTER SFC
HEATING. THE RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER SC WITH VORT LOBE ENERGY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE FL WEST
COAST...LIFTING NE. ALL OF THIS PORTENDS ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE DAY AND HAVE RAISED GFS MOS POPS 10-20 PERCENT...50 POP
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL/60 POP SOUTH.

MESOSCALE MODELS (HRRR AND LOCAL WRF) SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS
FIRST AFFECTING LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES THIS MORNING WHICH
APPEARS REASONABLE. THEN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTH DURING
THE AFTN WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EXPECTED. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE NORTH OF THE CAPE. BUT EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE TO FORM SOUTH
OF THE CAPE BY MID AFTN AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FOR STORMS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SOME STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS.

TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION WORKING OVER ANY RESIDUAL INSTABILITY. SHOULD BE A
QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING AT
LEAST NORTHERN HALF OF FA.

SAT-SUN...
SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/NE GOMEX WILL BE REINFORCED BY A
FRONTAL TROF PUSHING THRU THE ARKLATEX THIS MORNING. POSITION OF THE
TROF WILL KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED OVER THE S FL
PENINSULA TO START THE WEEKEND. PROSPECTS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
PENETRATE MUCH FURTHER S THAN CENTRAL GA/AL ARE QUITE LOW AS THE
H30-H20 SUBTROPICAL JET IS WEAK WITH WINDS AOB 50KTS...WHILE ITS
ORIENTATION W OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY IS LARGELY ZONAL.

AS THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES ACRS THE MIDWEST AND THE OH/TN
RIVER VALLEYS...IT WILL BRIDGE THE FRONTAL TROF AND BEGIN TO DRAW
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY BACK TO THE N. W/SW FLOW WILL
PERSIST THRU THE H85-H50 STEERING LYR...BUT WILL DIMINISH BY LATE
WEEKEND. THIS FLOW REGIME FOCUSES DIURNAL PRECIP OVER THE E FL
PENINSULA AS THE WRLY FLOW PUSHES THE WEST COAST BREEZE ACRS THE
STATE WHILE TRAPPING THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST.

DEEP MOISTURE ACRS THE REGION WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES AOA
70PCT...H85-H50 VALUES AOA 60PCT. H70 TEMPS HOVERING ARND 6C AND H50
ARND 10C WILL YIELD AVG MID LVL LAPSE RATES BTWN 5.5-6.5C/KM...NOT
EXPLOSIVELY CONVECTIVE BUT RESPECTABLE. MID LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL
BE PRESENT AS WELL IN THE FORM OF A WEAK H85-H50 VORT AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE CENTRAL GOMEX...THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED
WEAK JET WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPR LVL EVACUATION.

SCT-LKLY POPS THRU THE WEEKEND...FOCUSING HIGHEST NUMBERS ON THE
COAST ON SAT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONGER W/SW STEERING FLOW. LIKELY
POPS AREAWIDE ON SUN AS THE SW FLOW DIMINISHES AND ALLOWS THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND. TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEG
OF CLIMO AVG...AFTN MAXES IN THE L/M90S...MRNG MINS IN THE L/M70S.

MON-THU...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL COMPLETE ITS RELOCATION BACK TO THE FL
PANHANDLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT MERGES WITH THE POST FRONTAL
RIDGE AND FILLS IN THE REMNANT FRONTAL TROF. THE RESULTING ERLY
ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM
EARLIER AND MAKE A DEEPER INLAND PENETRATION. DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCATTERED AFTN CONVECTION...BUT THE
FOCUS WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR EARLY TO START THE WEEK...SHIFTING
TO THE WEST PENINSULA BY MID WEEK.

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR THRU 12Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL APPROACH INTRR TERMINALS FROM
THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING COVERAGE THIS AFTN ESP
MCO SOUTHWARD. EXPECT A SE WIND SHIFT AFT 17Z ASSOCD WITH THE SEA
BREEZE MLB SOUTHWARD. EXPECT HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE HERE SO
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA FROM VRB-SUA AFT 19Z. MAINTAINED
VCTS ELSEWHERE FOR NOW.

.MARINE...
TODAY...NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN S/SW FLOW 15-20 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH (VOLUSIA) AND CENTRAL (BREVARD) WATERS
WILL DECREASE 10 TO 15 KNOTS AROUND SUNRISE. SEAS UP TO 4 FEET
WELL OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME WILL SUBSIDE TO 3 FT PRETTY QUICKLY AS
WINDS DECREASE THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET WHERE THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD FORM. THE OFFSHORE
MOVING STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AGAIN
TODAY.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN THE S/SW FLOW MAY PRODUCE
15-20 KNOTS OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WATERS. ONGOING CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS IN THE EVE WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE AREA.

SAT-SUN...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER S FL WILL MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO
MODERATE W/SW BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC. OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL
RESULT IN A LIMITED FETCH LENGTH THAT WILL KEEP SEAS 1-2FT NEARSHORE
AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE. THE DEEP WRLY FLOW THRU THE COLUMN WILL PUSH
DIURNAL CONVECTION OFFSHORE THRU THE WEEKEND.

MON-TUE...RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT BACK N TO THE PANHANDLE...WITH A
LIGHT TO GENTLE SFC/BNDRY LYR BREEZE SHIFTING TO THE S/SE. SEAS
1-2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 89 70 88 73 / 50 20 60 30
MCO 92 71 92 72 / 50 20 50 20
MLB 88 71 88 73 / 50 20 60 30
VRB 88 70 89 73 / 60 30 60 30
LEE 92 72 91 73 / 50 20 50 20
SFB 93 73 92 73 / 50 20 50 20
ORL 92 74 92 74 / 50 20 50 20
FPR 88 70 89 73 / 60 30 60 30

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

1251 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY AND
CROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1250 AM UPDATE...LARGE SWATH OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS ACCORDING TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE, WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON
THE SITUATION. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE ALONG A
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS WHERE A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH MAY FALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE RAIN WILL BE
MORE INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY DOWNEAST. TONIGHTS ROUND OF STEADY
OVERUNNING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT.
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING LOW OVERCAST AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. MOST
OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE OVER WESTERN AREAS. ANOTHER AREA OF STEADY
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO DOWNEAST AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTH WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A ROUND OF MODERATE RAIN IS IN STORE FOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT AS
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. MOST AREAS LOOK TO PICK UP ANOTHER HALF
INCH TO INCH OF RAIN.

12Z NAM AND GFS HAVE SLOWED DOWN TIMING OF SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ON SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE IT MAY NOT COME THROUGH UNTIL MIDDAY TO
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A NICE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO ACCOMPANY IT.
AFTER PERHAPS A LITTLE BREAK AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT`S RAIN, MAY SEE
CONVECTION FIRE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY AND HAVE A
CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

CERTAINLY WE WILL BE DRYING OUT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY,
WITH MUCH DRIER NW FLOW.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND DRY FOR MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER, THAT RIDGE MOVES EAST OF US LATE MONDAY AND WE GET
INTO MOISTER AND UNSTABLE WESTERLY FLOW, LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.
IN THIS SORT OF PATTERN IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME THE FAST-MOVING
SHORTWAVES, SO JUST PUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE.

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THEN IFR FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR FRIDAY NIGHT IN RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT IN GUSTS TONIGHT AND CONTINUING ON
FRIDAY. SOME FOG WILL LIKELY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DUE TO WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ONSHORE FLOW. COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON
SATURDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT SATURDAY MORNING.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...BLOOMER/HASTINGS/FOISY
MARINE...BLOOMER/HASTINGS/FOISY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

1241 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...WITH
THE RAIN DIMINISHING. SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THERE. OVERALL THOUGH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD FOR MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
OVER WESTERN AREAS WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION CAUSING WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHTER TONIGHT/FRIDAY. A RETURN FLOW WITH STRENGTHENING
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. WE LEFT THE MENTION OF PRECIP OUT FOR NOW...AS BEST CHANCES
OCCUR AFTER 06Z SAT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 50 59 50 65 / 30 90 80 70
INL 50 61 50 63 / 40 70 70 70
BRD 55 68 57 71 / 50 80 80 60
HYR 50 71 55 72 / 20 60 70 60
ASX 47 69 50 70 / 20 60 80 70

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ121-140>142-146>148.

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...STEWART

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

325 AM MDT FRI JUN 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

INTERESTING DAY COMING AS DYNAMIC LOW OVER THE PAC NW MOVES SLOWLY
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THERE HAS BEEN ABUNDANT NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION...SOME OF IT SEVERE...IN NORTH CENTRAL MT UNDER VERY
DIFFLUENT SW FLOW ALOFT. MORE RECENTLY...SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
FROM ROSEBUD TO SHERIDAN COUNTIES EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO WEAKER
ENERGY AND 200-300 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE...ALONG WITH LLJ FORCING.
ONE OTHER ISSUE EARLY THIS MORNING IS A BRIEF WINDOW OF MOUNTAIN
WAVE POTENTIAL AHEAD OF APPROACHING PACIFIC FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE LEE OF THE BIG HORNS. WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE MTNS WITH
45 MPH GUSTS AT BURGESS JCT. IN FACT...AT AROUND 230AM A 10-20 MPH
SW WIND DEVELOPED AT SHERIDAN PUSHING THE TEMP THERE TO 73
DEGREES. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW 40-45 KTS AT 1-2KFT AGL THRU 5-6AM...
SO EXPECT SOME ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH POSSIBLE.

PACIFIC FRONT CURRENTLY IN WESTERN MONTANA AND EASTERN IDAHO IS
PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR CWA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SHIFT AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR TO OUR EAST...
AND COMBINATION OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND UP TO 50KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR GIVES US SOLID SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IN OUR
FAR EASTERN ZONES...ALBEIT FOR A SHORT TIME DEPENDING ON SPEED OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
SHIFT COMPLETELY INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 00Z. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS IN OUR
EAST...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR AN INCH.
ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH IS SHERIDAN COUNTY AS SREF SEVERE PARAMETERS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN HITTING THIS AREA AS SFC FRONT SETTLES ON
THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE BIG HORNS. A COMPLICATING FACTOR HERE IS
THE ADVECTION OF VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR FROM THE GREAT BASIN THRU
WY...WITH THE RAP AND GFS SHOWING DEEP MIXING OF THIS DRY AIR IN
THE LEE OF THE BIG HORNS THIS AFTN. THIS WOULD CANCEL ANY SEVERE
RISK FOR SHERIDAN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS
DRY AIR AND THE SFC FRONT TODAY...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING THE
GREATER SEVERE RISK SHOULD BE FURTHER EAST TODAY. ELSEWHERE...WEST
OF SFC FRONT...AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER AND NOT AS UNSTABLE BUT
STILL SUPPORTIVE OF TSTM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY AS ASCENT INCREASES
WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROF. SCATTERED POPS FOR NON-SEVERE
CONVECTION SHOULD SUFFICE FOR OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...WITH
SOME SMALL HAIL A POSSIBILITY.

UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA ON
SATURDAY. ASCENT NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AS THIS LOW BECOMES
POSITIVELY TILTED...BUT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT ARE MORE
THAN ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS ESPECIALLY DURING
PEAK HEATING. 700MB TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW 0C BY LATE
TONIGHT SO EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS AND CRAZIES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TODAY WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOW 80S...AGAIN WITH EXISTING PREFRONTAL CONDITIONS. COULD SEE MID
TO EVEN UPPER 80S IN THE LEE OF THE BIG HORNS IF THE AIRMASS
BECOMES WELL-MIXED. SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 60S...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW MID JUNE NORMALS.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MODELS INCONSISTENCIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN IMPACTING OUR AREA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS BEEN
THE MORE CONSISTENT MODELS AND WILL LEAN FORECAST TOWARD ITS
SOLUTION.

WEAK RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. SOME OF THIS
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER SC/SE MT AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CARVES OUT A LARGE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE UPPER FLOW TO BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR WEST SETTING UP
A EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. LARGE DISCREPANCIES CONTINUES WITH THE
LONG RANGE MODELS IN THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. HAVE NOT MADE TO MANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
AND WILL WAIT FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY BEFORE RAISING POPS. HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL VALUES
FOR NEXT WEEK. RICHMOND

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 18Z TODAY. A
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY AND THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM KMLS TO KBHK THIS
MORNING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR ANY
STORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOPE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
BROADUS NORTHEAST TO BAKER. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. RICHMOND

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 049/066 047/073 050/074 050/071 050/072 052/074
3/T 45/T 33/T 34/T 44/T 43/T 32/T
LVM 073 041/063 040/070 043/069 044/068 043/070 045/075
5/T 65/T 33/T 44/T 44/T 33/T 32/T
HDN 081 050/067 045/075 049/077 051/072 048/074 052/077
3/T 45/T 33/T 24/T 44/T 43/T 32/T
MLS 081 053/067 048/073 051/076 052/072 052/074 054/074
3/T 33/T 22/T 23/T 44/T 45/T 52/T
4BQ 083 051/067 046/073 050/077 051/074 051/074 052/075
4/T 45/T 42/T 23/T 44/T 44/T 42/T
BHK 079 051/067 047/070 049/073 051/070 050/071 051/071
4/T 54/T 22/T 23/T 44/T 44/T 42/T
SHR 082 047/064 041/072 047/076 047/071 046/072 048/074
3/T 34/T 32/T 24/T 44/T 43/T 33/T

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

510 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BRING ONE LAST DAY OF APPRECIABLE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. A GRADUAL RETURN OF MOISTURE AND THUS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED ON TUESDSAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM FRIDAY...A WEAK MID-LEVEL S/W TROF WILL LIFT NE THIS
MORNING TO OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT S/W TROF WILL APPROACH THE FA FROM THE NW TONIGHT AS THE
LONGWAVE TROF ALOFT PROGRESSES TO THE EAST COAST LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. DYNAMICS ALOFT FROM THESE S/W TROFS WILL AID CONVECTION
TODAY THRU TONIGHT. LIFT WILL ALSO BE PRODUCED BY THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SEA BREEZE AND THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS TODAY...REACHING THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE FA COULD EXPERIENCE BRIEF SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/W TROF MIDDAY INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...AND COULD HAVE A NEGATIVE EFFECT ON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTN DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE NVA. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AVBL...OK IN THAT DEPARTMENT. OVERALL...HAVE GONE WITH A
GOOD CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...AND THUS
BANKING ON THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS A NON-ISSUE. ON A SIDE
NOTE...WENT EVEN HIER THAN SREF POPS. FOR MAX AND MIN
TEMPS...STAYED ON THE HIER SIDE OF AVBL MODEL MOS GUIDANCE.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...A RATHER LATE SEASON COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. IT WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND ACCOMPANIED BY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN WITH THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD REALLY CURTAIL PRECIP CHANCES INLAND BUT SOME
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ALONG THE COAST LONG ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER DAY OF
POPS IN THE 30S. TEMPERATURE-WISE ITS A PRETTY TYPICAL JUNE COOL`
FRONT IN THAT THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE COOLING AND EVEN THE SURFACE
DEWPOINT DECREASE HAS BEEN BACKED OFF IN GUIDANCE. THE FRONT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH IN A RAPIDLY WEAKENING STATE AS MID LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. PRONOUNCED DRYING DROPS PW VALUES TO
AROUND AN INCH BY DAYS END MAKING FOR A DRY AND SUNNY FATHER`S
DAY. EXCEPTION MAY BE FARTHER SOUTHERN ZONES ESP ACCORDING TO
GFS...WHERE MOS NUMBERS SHOWING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SEEMS WORST
CASE GIVEN THE SIMILARLY DRY FCST SOUNDINGS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MOISTURE RETURN TRIES TO GET UNDERWAY ON MONDAY
BUT LARGELY LOOKS TOO WEAK TO YIELD MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES SAVE FOR
PERHAPS SCHC...SRN ZONES MAY BE FAVORED BUT DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE
WITH SUCH DETAIL THAT FAR OUT WITH SUCH A LOW PROB IN THE FIRST
PLACE. TUESDAY CONTINUES TO FIND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUT ALSO A SECONDARY AND WEAKER HIGH CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. PRECLUDING MUCH MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO THURSDAY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SEASONABLE RAINFALL
DISTRIBUTION/COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE RADAR HAS QUIETED EARLY THIS FRI MORNING AS THE
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAS DISSIPATED. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS TO DOMINATE SKY CONDITIONS AND SW-WSW WINDS STAYING
ACTIVE...AROUND 5 KTS...AND SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG THREAT EARLY THIS
AM. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AS
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS KEEP US
DRY INTO THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS FOR ALL
TERMS STARTING EARLY FRI AFTN BETWEEN 17Z-18Z. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED A
TEMPO GROUPING FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS ALL TERMS WITH LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE AT THE COAST...AND THE SFC TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE INLAND. VFR FOR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT LOCALIZED
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM TSTMS. SW TO WSW WINDS AOB 10
KTS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT BECOMING S-SSW 10-15G19KTS FOLLOWING THE
INLAND PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ON
SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ONLY DIURNALLY
INDUCED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM FRIDAY...THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN AND GRADIENT
ACROSS THE ILM WATERS THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WILL
BOTH SUPPORT SW WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. DURING
THE PRE-DAWN SATURDAY HOURS...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD...AND REACH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK SAT.
THIS SFC PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A VEERING WIND
DIRECTION...FROM SW-W-NW BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SFC PG WILL
RELAX...RESULTING WITH LOWERING WIND SPEEDS TO AROUND 10 KT BY
DAYBREAK SAT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE A FUNCTION OF LOCALLY
PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES EXHIBITING 4 TO 6 SECOND DOMINANT
PERIODS. LOOKING AT MAINLY 2 TO 4 FOOT SIGNIFICANT SEAS AND
UP TO 5 FT ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...AREA GETS SPLIT NORTH TO SOUTH FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY BY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE FRONT SAGS WILL DETERMINE HOW MANY OF THE ZONES SEE A NORTHERLY
WIND COMPONENT MOVE IN. NORTHERN ZONES ARE MOST FAVORED TO SEE NE
WINDS WHILE SRN ZONES MAY STAY S/SW MOST OF THE DAY. AS USUAL WITH A
FRONT IN THE AREA THE FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND SEAS SETTLING TO 2 TO 3
FT RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. FRONT GETS SOUTH OF ALL ZONES AND
BASICALLY FALLS APART ON SUNDAY LEAVING BEHIND A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND
DUE TO WEAK HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY BENIGN ON MONDAY AS WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE GETTING ESTABLISHED OFF CAPE
HATTERAS FOR A VERY WEAK EASTERLY FLOW LOCALLY. LIGHT WINDS AND NO
SWELL ENERGY MEANS MINIMAL SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS. HIGH MOVES FURTHER
OFF THE COAST AND A PIEDMONT TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ON TUESDAY
RETURNING A MORE TYPICAL SWRLY WIND DIRECTION. SPEEDS STAY LIGHTER
THAN THE NORM HOWEVER DUE TO BOTH FEATURES BEING QUITE WEAK.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...RJD/MBB
AVIATION...DCH/BJR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

500 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM THURSDAY...SEAS 2-3 FEET WITH 3 TO 4 FEET SEAS IN THE
OUTER WATERS IN DECENT SOUTHERLY PUSH AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...SLIGHTLY LOWER NEAR SHORE. SEAS A MIX OF S WAVES 2-3
FEET EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND SE WAVES 1-2 FEET EVERY 7-9 SECONDS.
OUTSIDE OF TSTMS NO WIND AND SEA HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...RJD/MBB
AVIATION...DCH/BJR
MARINE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

305 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM THURSDAY...SHWRS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ISOLATED
IN COVERAGE...MOVING UP IN SW FLOW IN AXIS OF MOISTURE RICH AIR AND
ENHANCED SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH H5 SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT AS MAIN MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REACHING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES DIGS SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS OVERNIGHT BUT AS
DIURNAL HEATING CUTS OFF...EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN ON THE WEAKER
SIDE AND REMAIN MORE ISOLATED.

BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UP AROUND 1.8 INCHES. LOW TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWERS 70S RIGHT ALONG THE COAST IN WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...A RATHER LATE SEASON COOL FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. IT WILL BE RATHER SLOW MOVING AND ACCOMPANIED BY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN WITH THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD REALLY CURTAIL PRECIP CHANCES INLAND BUT SOME
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ALONG THE COAST LONG ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER DAY OF
POPS IN THE 30S. TEMPERATURE-WISE ITS A PRETTY TYPICAL JUNE `COOL`
FRONT IN THAT THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE COOLING AND EVEN THE SURFACE
DEWPOINT DECREASE HAS BEEN BACKED OFF IN GUIDANCE. THE FRONT REMAINS
TO OUR SOUTH IN A RAPIDLY WEAKENING STATE AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVERHEAD. PRONOUNCED DRYING DROPS PW VALUES TO AROUND AN INCH
BY DAYS END MAKING FOR A DRY AND SUNNY FATHER`S DAY. EXCEPTION MAY
BE FARTHER SOUTHERN ZONES ESP ACCORDING TO GFS...WHERE MOS NUMBERS
SHOWING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. SEEMS WORST CASE GIVEN THE SIMILARLY DRY
FCST SOUNDINGS.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...MOISTURE RETURN TRIES TO GET UNDERWAY ON MONDAY
BUT LARGELY LOOKS TOO WEAK TO YIELD MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES SAVE FOR
PERHAPS SCHC...SRN ZONES MAY BE FAVORED BUT DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE
WITH SUCH DETAIL THAT FAR OUT WITH SUCH A LOW PROB IN THE FIRST
PLACE. TUESDAY CONTINUES TO FIND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BUT ALSO A SECONDARY AND WEAKER HIGH CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. PRECLUDING MUCH MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO THURSDAY
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SEASONABLE RAINFALL
DISTRIBUTION/COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE RADAR HAS QUIETED EARLY THIS FRI MORNING AS THE
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAS DISSIPATED. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS TO DOMINATE SKY CONDITIONS AND SW-WSW WINDS STAYING
ACTIVE...AROUND 5 KTS...AND SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG THREAT EARLY THIS
AM. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AS
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY MOIST. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS KEEP US
DRY INTO THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS. WILL MAINTAIN VCTS FOR ALL
TERMS STARTING EARLY FRI AFTN BETWEEN 17Z-18Z. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED A
TEMPO GROUPING FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS ALL TERMS WITH LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE AT THE COAST...AND THE SFC TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE INLAND. VFR FOR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT LOCALIZED
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM TSTMS. SW TO WSW WINDS AOB 10
KTS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT BECOMING S-SSW 10-15G19KTS FOLLOWING THE
INLAND PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/BJR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

155 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. EXPECT WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
HUMIDITY TO RETURN BY MIDWEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UP AROUND 1.8 INCHES. LOW TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWERS 70S RIGHT ALONG THE COAST IN WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL KICK OFF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT. WITH
CONTINUED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ON FRIDAY AND A CONSIDERABLY
MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS...WITH PWAT VALUES BOUNCING AROUND THE 1.4 -
1.8 MARK...EXPECT DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANYTHING SEVERE GIVEN
THE LACK OF IMPRESSIVE PARAMETERS IN PLACE...BUT COULD SEE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AT TIMES AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED SHORT-LIVED
FLOODING IN THE MOST EXTREME CASE. ON SATURDAY...OVERALL EXPECT
THINGS TO QUIET DOWN AS THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA...ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO INFILTRATE INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN A SLIGHT DISCREPANCY IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE TWO
FEATURES...COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SATURDAY...THOUGH ISOLATED IN NATURE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT
MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...A FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR OUR
FORECAST AREA OR JUST TO THE N ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE WEAK
AND IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MONDAY. THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REASSERT ITSELF AS IT BUILDS SLOWLY
WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
WILL NOT BE OF SUFFICIENT MAGNITUDE TO KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST. SUN AND MON CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DRIER COLUMN WITH LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
THEREAFTER...THE MOISTURE DOES DEEPEN THROUGH A SIGNIFICANT DEPTH
AS A DEEP SW FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATER WED AND THU THAN EARLIER
IN THE NEW WEEK. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR A RATHER
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS PEAKING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE HOURS. THE SEABREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH SHOULD SERVE AS INITIAL FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SUN WITH LOWER TO MID 90S
COMMON FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY INCREASE.
SEABREEZE INFLUENCES WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN MORE COASTAL LOCATIONS
IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. LOW TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
NEAR 70 TO THE LOWER 70S WITH MID 70S AT THE BEACHES.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW GENERALLY AROUND 15
KTS...WITH SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FT...WITH 4FTERS POSSIBLE IN THE
EXTREME OUTER WATERS...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA REMAINS WEDGED BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AS THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
SFC COLD FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...WILL SEE WINDS BACK OFF IMMENSELY WITH WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS...VARIABLE AT TIMES. AS FOR SEAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT SEAS OF 2 FT...WITH 3 FT OCCASIONALLY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...A FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN WATERS OR JUST
TO OUR N ON SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE. A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY REASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS DURING SUN
WILL BE FROM THE E...VEERING TO THE SE SUN NIGHT AND MON. WINDS
MON NIGHT AND TUE WILL BE FROM THE S. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL
PRODUCE A SLACK GRADIENT...PERHAPS TIGHTENING SLIGHTLY DURING TUE.
THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY SHOULD LARGELY DICTATE THE WIND SPEEDS AND
WOULD EXPECT A 5 KT BUMP UP IN WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVE...WHEN THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY WILL
BE MOST DISTINCT. SEAS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT... LIKELY BUILDING UP TO 3 TO 4 FT DURING TUE AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW PERSISTS AND STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...SGL
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...RJD
AVIATION...DCH/BJR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

340 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE DRY
AND MORE COMFORTABLE AIR OVER WEEKEND. WARMER AND MORE HUMID EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WAS WEAKENING OVER THE WV MOUNTAINS AT 07Z. THE 700 MB FLOW HAD
TURNED TO NORTH AT ILN THURSDAY EVENING...BUT HAS ALREADY BACKED TO
SW AGAIN.

FORECASTING THE MOST PREDAWN FOG IN THE CKB TO CRW TO SOUTHERN WV
COAL FIELDS WHERE SOME CLEARING OCCURRED IN THE WAKE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROF. HAVE CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY 12Z. TO THE WEST...WITH
FLOW AND CLOUDS FIGURED TO INCREASE...DID NOT HIT FOG AS HARD IN THE
OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

TO THE WEST...SURFACE FRONT SEEMS TO HAVE PASSED DAY AT 07Z WITH A
WIND SHIFT. HAVE THE FRONT REACHING INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AROUND
PKB BY 15Z. WILL TRY TO DEVELOP SOME LIKELY POPS IN WV AS FRONT
PASSES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH STEERING FLOW FROM THE WEST...NOT
PICTURING/FORECASTING REPETITIVE CELLS/TRAINING TODAY.

EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS GET TO 25 TO 30 THSD FOR A HOUR OR TWO IN WV THIS
AFTERNOON. WAS NOT IN A BIG HURRY REMOVING POPS IN WV AND SW
VIRGINIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER ON
THE RAP DOES START DROPPING UNTIL ABOUT 22Z OR 23Z.

SOME STRATOCUMULUS MAY BE SEEN OVERNIGHT AS THE COOLER 850
TEMPERATURES MOVES SOUTHEAST. THINKING THE SOUTHERN WV VALLEYS WILL
BE CLEAR ENOUGH 06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY FOR SOME PREDAWN VALLEY FOG WITH
THOSE COOLER TEMPERATURES.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS HEADS EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO START TO RETURN. GFS TRIES TO KICK OFF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS SW VA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NAM...ECMWF AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST KEEP THINGS DRY...SO KEPT PRECIP OUT. USED A BLEND
OF BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS FOR LOWS...AND MAV/MET BLEND ON HIGHS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED...PRIMARILY WITH WHERE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF TRACKS. GFS IS FARTHER E OVER THE PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY OH VALLEY WHILE ECMWF DUMPS IT INTO NW CONUS WITH RIDGING
TAKING HOLD IN THE PLAINS AND E. WILL SIDE CLOSE TO HPC SOLUTIONS
WHICH GENERALLY FOLLOWS ECWMF. AS SUCH...RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
ON TUE AND REORGANIZES TO THE W...OVER THE MS VALLEY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT WASHES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL TRY TO PUT THE AREA
IN NW FLOW ALOFT...ALBEIT WEAK FLOW. WILL BE WATCHING FOR SUBTLE
RIPPLES TO COME DOWN IN THE FLOW ALOFT...BUT AT THIS DISTANCE ROLLED
WITH MAINLY A DIURNAL TREND IN THE POPS AND CAPPED AROUND 40
PERCENT. TRIED TO NIX POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS...ABSENT ANY
DISTURBANCE COMING DOWN THE PIKE. ALSO CODED UP A MAX OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION ON WEAK CONVERGENCE ON
THE RIDGES. OVERALL THEME IN THE EXTENDED IS SCT SHRA/TSRA TUE-THU
WITH DOWNPOURS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING
ON THE MUGGY SIDE.

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL TROF PASSING EAST OF CRW AND THROUGH MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
06Z TO 10Z. STILL A SOME CEILINGS AROUND 2 THSD FT BKN AND A FEW
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A 4 TO 6 HOUR OPENING TO THE WEST OF
THAT TROF...SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF VALLEY FOG CKB-CRW INTO THE
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS. SOME OF THAT FOG COULD SPILL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLATEAU VCNTY BKW. HOWEVER...COLD FRONT ALONG WESTERN OHIO
BORDER AT 06Z. FIGURING LOW LEVEL FLOW AT LEAST JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE SHOULD BE INCREASING IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES 09Z TO 12Z
ALONG WITH A RETURN OF 4 TO 6 THSD FT BKN CEILINGS. SO WILL NOT GO
AS HARD ON THE FOG IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEST CHANCE OF SHOWER/TSTM ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER SHOULD BE 14Z TO 18Z...THEN 17Z TO 23Z FURTHER EAST. BASED ON
FORECAST MODELS LINGERING INSTABILITY...WILL NOT BE TOO QUICK
REMOVING POPS CRW ON EAST. HAVE CEILINGS MOSTLY 2 TO 4 THSD FT BKN
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. VSBY BRIEFLY 3 MILES IN CONVECTION.

SOME POST FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS FIGURED AT 4 TO 5 THSD FT 00Z TO 06Z
SATURDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF FOG FORMING COULD VARY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TIMING OF CONVECTION AND COLD FRONT COULD VARY FOR FRIDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE FRI 06/13/14
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L H H M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L M M H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L M H M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L H M H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
EXPECT EARLY MORNING FOG FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

241 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014

.UPDATE...
TO CANCEL REMAINING COUNTIES IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 289.

.DISCUSSION...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ROARED THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLIER TONIGHT HAS SHIFTED INTO THE COASTAL
PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. UPDATED
ZONES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1228 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014/

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT SOUTH OF ALL TAF
SITES. IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING AT KAUS AND KSAT/KSSF...BUT
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS
BY THE START OF THE CUURENT TAF CYCLE. WILL HANDLE THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH VCSH/VCTS. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE IMPACT THE
RAIN HAS ON THE FORMATION OF LOW-LEVEL STRATUS AND ANY POSSIBLE
FOG. HAVE PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRATUS A FEW HOURS. KAUS
WILL LIKELY HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE MORNING WITH
SATURATED SOILS AND THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...WIND
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS.
WITH MANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM TODAYS CONVECTION...CANT
RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/

UPDATE...
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO CONGEAL INTO A COMPLEX OF
STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH AND HAVE
INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HRRR SEEMS TO
HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE TRENDS AND HAS MOST ACTIVITY SOUTH OF
THE CWA AFTER 8Z. OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...SEVERE CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE WITH A WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
INCREASING INHIBITION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OUT OF
THE HEAVIER STORMS...BUT STORM MOTIONS ARE BECOMING A FASTER AS
COMPLEX BECOMES DOMINATED BY COLD POOLS. SOME LOCATIONS WILL PICK
UP OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN AND THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING AT SOME POINT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LATE
TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE...WILL NOT ISSUE A WATCH. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS OVERTAKEN THE HEAT ADVISORY WITH THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
AS WELL...AND HAVE CANCELLED THE HEAT ADVISORY.

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/

A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME SPOTTY DOWNPOURS EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR
BEFORE STABILITY ATTEMPTS TO TAKE OVER AGAIN FOR FRIDAY FRIDAY
NIGHT.

CLIMATE...
DRT RECORDS IN JEOPARDY
DATE HIGH YEAR
06/12 106 2001
06/13 105 1960

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 91 73 92 72 92 / 20 10 - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 90 71 92 71 92 / 20 10 - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 92 72 93 72 93 / 20 10 - - -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 88 71 90 70 90 / 20 10 - - -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 99 76 100 76 98 / 10 10 - 20 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 88 71 90 71 91 / 20 10 - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 94 73 95 72 96 / 10 - - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 91 73 92 72 92 / 20 10 - - -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 91 73 92 73 91 / 30 - - - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 93 74 93 73 94 / 20 - - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 94 74 95 74 96 / 20 - - - -

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...25

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1228 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT SOUTH OF ALL TAF
SITES. IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING AT KAUS AND KSAT/KSSF...BUT
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS
BY THE START OF THE CUURENT TAF CYCLE. WILL HANDLE THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH VCSH/VCTS. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE IMPACT THE
RAIN HAS ON THE FORMATION OF LOW-LEVEL STRATUS AND ANY POSSIBLE
FOG. HAVE PUSHED BACK THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRATUS A FEW HOURS. KAUS
WILL LIKELY HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE MORNING WITH
SATURATED SOILS AND THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...WIND
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS.
WITH MANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT FROM TODAYS CONVECTION...CANT
RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT.

HAMPSHIRE

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/

HAMPSHIRE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/

A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME SPOTTY DOWNPOURS EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR
BEFORE STABILITY ATTEMPTS TO TAKE OVER AGAIN FOR FRIDAY FRIDAY
NIGHT.

CLIMATE...
DRT RECORDS IN JEOPARDY
DATE HIGH YEAR
06/12 106 2001
06/13 105 1960

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 92 72 92 74 / 10 - - - 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 92 71 92 73 / 10 - - - 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 93 72 93 74 / 10 - - - 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 90 70 90 73 / 10 - - - 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 100 76 98 77 / 10 - 20 - 20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 90 71 91 74 / 10 - - - 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 72 96 75 / - - - - 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 73 92 72 92 74 / 10 - - - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 73 92 73 91 76 / - - - 10 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 93 73 94 75 / - - - - 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 74 95 74 96 77 / - - - - 10

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...29
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

217 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1121 PM EDT THURSDAY...

AS OF 805 PM EDT THURSDAY...

AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

AREAS OF MVFR FOG AND SCT-BKN STRATUS WITH CIGS BLO 1KFT POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE VALLEYS OVER AND WEST OF
THE MTNS...CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS LOW BUT WILL ALLOW FOR A 1-3 HOUR
PERIOD FOR TEMPORARY CONDITIONS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.
ANY STRATUS AND FOG THAT FORMS...SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNRISE.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WESTERLY TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL MAINTAIN RISK FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL ITS PASSAGE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY. THIS CHANGE IN
AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN FEWER CLOUDS FOR THE WEEKEND AND LITTLE OR
NO THREAT OF DEEP CONVETION. AS SUCH...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION...PROMOTING RETURN OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK/RCS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
227 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled and cooler than normal conditions will envelop the
region today with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Another low pressure system arriving on
Sunday will prolong these unsettled conditions through Tuesday
before a drying and warming trend develops by the middle of next
week.

.DISCUSSION...
Friday and Saturday: A broad area of low pressure has shifted into
the Pac NW and will slowly track to the east during the next 24-36
hours. While the potential for strong thunderstorms has
diminished...a cool and unsettled weather pattern will remain in
place through much of the period. The main upper-level circulation
currently resides over the Dalles as of 2AM and will track to the
east/southeast setting up somewhere between Lewiston and McCall,
ID by Friday evening before ejecting into eastern Montana midday
on Saturday. There is a well defined trowal structure to the storm
system which currently wraps through Wrn MT around the eastern
periphery of the low...southern BC around the northern
periphery...then bends back into the northern Cascades on its
northwestern flank. This axis of higher theta-e air will be the
main focus for precipitation...potentially steady at times. As the
low tracks to the E/SE Friday, the moisture axis will get pulled
from northern and central WA eastward through Ern WA and Nrn ID.
Meanwhile...the main cold pool crossing through SE WA and the
lower ID Panhandle will help destabilize the atmosphere leading to
a secondary precipitation mechanism. Locations from the Blues to
Mullan and points south that are under the coolest 500mb
temperatures will stand the best chance for afternoon
thunderstorms. But here is where it gets more complicated. Between
these features, there is a residual dry slot (main reasoning for
the void in thunderstorm activity Thursday for the Spokane-CDA)
This will create an area with the least amount of cloud cover and
should also promote isolated afternoon showers largely driven by
heating of the day. This will change as the trowal airstream
shifts east this evening but for today...it should mainly be a hit
or miss type shower day. Cloud cover should be too prevalent
directly under the main trowal airstream for thunder but any
clearing/heating on its outer fringes would increase the chances
for thunder. Overall, a messy precipitation pattern is in store
for the Inland NW today. Winds will remain breezy across much of
the Basin...Palouse...West Plains and Wenatchee Area. The good
news...much cooler temperatures will keep humidities significantly
higher with very little concern for critical fire wx conditions.

The threat for precipitation will wane across the Cascades and western
Basin Friday night into Saturday but will increase for Ern WA and
Nrn ID as the storm system continues to drift east and the wrap
around moisture gets pulled east. Steady rain Friday night and
Saturday morning will transition to showers by Saturday afternoon
with the main precipitation threat east of a line from Republic to
Pullman to Lewiston. There will be a better chance for sunbreaks
Saturday afternoon bringing a renewed threat for isolated
thunderstorms for NE WA and Nrn ID. Any storms will be weak and
shortlived as shear and CAPE weaken throughout the afternoon. For
Central WA...upper-levels warm and stabilize with another 700mb
dry slot nosing through. However, there is a weak shortwave
showing up on all guidance. This will keep a small chance for
showers and drizzle along the Cascade Crest. Temperatures will be
4-8 degrees warmer Saturday from Friday but just shy of what is
considered normal for mid June. /sb

Saturday night through Monday...Model agreement and consistency is
decent for the later periods of the short term...with the EC...NAM
and GFS suggesting a weak cold front passing through the region
on Sunday as the next upper low begins to approach the region. The
consensus of the latest model runs suggest the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast mountains will experience the greatest threat of
showers and possible thunderstorms on Sunday. The trend of
subsequent model runs for this period will need to be scrutinized
as it appears the possibility of showers Sunday afternoon may be
increasing over previous runs. This day looks like a transition
period into another troffy pattern as a new upper low settles over
the region through Monday with a cool pool aloft promoting
instability for a threat of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms on Monday. Temperatures will probably struggle to
achieve seasonable normals in this pattern.

Monday night through Thursday...The next (aforementioned) upper
low is now advertised by both the latest GFS and ECMWF models to
persist over the northwest US through Wednesday...although
slumping south into the Great basin by Wednesday or so. Thus the
safe bet is to continue unsettled and showery conditions on
Tuesday and begin to improve/dry out things on Wednesday. There
are no well defined frontal boundaries of deformation regions over
the forecast area with this upper low...so precipitation will
likely be a seasonably normal hit-and-miss shower or occasional
thunderstorm pattern concentrated over the mountains ringing the
basin with continued cooler than normal temperatures. What is
left of the anomalous upper low will apparently simply weaken
while remaining in the vicinity of the Great Basin or slowly eject
eastward by Thursday. This suggests a continued drying trend and
slow warm up through the middle to later period of the new work
week is the safe bet at this time.

In summary...the later part of this weekend through next week will
be somewhat unsettled and cooler than normal but no identifiable
downright wet or unusually stormy conditions are expected.
/Fugazzi

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms remain across
the Cascades as well as down towards the Palouse/LC Valley.
KPUW/KLWS may see -shra vcts thru 08z and then partially clear
out. KEAT may see more continuous shower development overnight.
Widespread -RA expected by morning across the cascades and then
will move east thru the morning hrs. -RA expected at all eastern
TAF sites thru the aftn. West to southwest winds will increase a
bit Fri aftn as well. Cigs expected to remain above VFR
conditions.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 64 49 70 48 68 46 / 40 70 20 10 30 20
Coeur d`Alene 63 49 66 46 66 44 / 50 70 50 20 50 30
Pullman 63 47 66 44 66 43 / 60 70 30 10 20 20
Lewiston 68 50 74 51 73 50 / 70 70 30 10 20 20
Colville 63 46 72 48 67 45 / 80 80 30 20 50 30
Sandpoint 64 47 63 44 63 43 / 60 80 60 20 50 40
Kellogg 58 47 61 46 63 44 / 60 80 80 20 50 40
Moses Lake 73 50 77 52 77 49 / 30 30 0 0 10 10
Wenatchee 71 48 76 56 75 54 / 50 20 10 0 10 10
Omak 69 47 77 50 74 48 / 50 40 10 10 20 20